AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

The hound doesn't care one iota if many are sceptics about dividend stripping...more food for his bowl and he knows its a time honoured and tested method to increase dividend income.

But for those that are interested, hopefully not many, surely the above is pretty easy to understand seeing as its typed in plain English. Lets save the post mortem for 6-8 weeks time eh.

I dont think that merits some of the comments on dividend stripping--They are simply stripping off some of the companies value and giving it to Shareholders---My research has warned about dividend stripping in a company that is not in a strong uptrend.

[skid]

If one bought on the day the dividend was announced and sold today you would be up a tidy 4.5% with the dividend. I'm not saying it works but it wasn't exactly the worst play you could have made regarding the recent dividend.

More relevant is selling the day after it closes--You most likely would have still come out in the black--But I believe the debate was about all that ''free money''(just to keep it in context)

[workingdad]

No surprises on oil remaining cheap for the foreseeable future with increased production predicted for 2017 - crude down 2.9% overnight. Good for AIR :)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11709359

I know everyone laughs at the 'this time it will be different' statements but the last low cycle on AIR is very different to the fundamentals currently in play. Not saying there is pressure from competition but the tailwinds are not exactly fading.

[skid]

Today may be another rocky day ,but more relevant is how much of a gain AIR made yesterday and whether that amount merits a company on the way up....interesting times

WD-You will have a chance to test out your statement by watching the SP today.

[winner69]

No surprises on oil remaining cheap for the foreseeable future with increased production predicted for 2017 - crude down 2.9% overnight. Good for AIR :)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11709359

I know everyone laughs at the 'this time it will be different' statements but the last low cycle on AIR is very different to the fundamentals currently in play. Not saying there is pressure from competition but the tailwinds are not exactly fading.

Hey wd - you checked the price of oil at past cyclical lows of AIR share price (esp 2008/09)?

What you make of Paper Tigers comment that RPKs growth is currently slowing globally?

[babymonster]

the weakened nzd might help as well.. but the stats for August is out and the load factor keeps fall a little bit each month... Errr...

[workingdad]

Hey wd - you checked the price of oil at past cyclical lows of AIR share price (esp 2008/09)?

What you make of Paper Tigers comment that RPKs growth is currently slowing globally?

Yes but that was during the GFC and tourism and migration wasn't anything like now where demand is still high.

RPK is certainly under pressure with competition but so are costs. I think it's more the degree of where it settles and no one can say either way with any certainty. As long as AIR maintain the divvys indicated its a tempting stock. I'm not betting the house on it. Been tempted a few times to re-increase holdings but yet to commit yet. Cautiously optimistic I think is how I rate my investment with AIR

[winner69]

Stats look OK with solid increase in ASKs to offset lower RASKs

Need Paper Tiger to confirm this is all OK - like no dramatic revenue decline

[777]

the weakened nzd might help as well.. but the stats for August is out and the load factor keeps fall a little bit each month... Errr...

Will always drag behind the seats available increasing.

[Xerof]

yep - more seats provided for bums to sit on, more bums are sitting on them, but the units of seats come in packages of 180 to 300 odd, whereas bums come in singles :D

[babymonster]

i thought cargo is making more money than people, am i right?

[Beagle]

Operating stat's were consistent with information indicated during the analysts conference call and are okay in the prevailing highly competitive environment in my opinion.

[mikeybycrikey]

Just reading through the monthly investors update where they are talking about the changes to the Airpoints programme.

Airpoints have split from FlyBuys and are allowing members to earn points through New World, Z and Mitre 10, and a number of other retailers and service providers. Interesting changes.

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

[bull....]

i thought cargo is making more money than people, am i right?

if im right? who knows im often wrong total passengers are up but there paying less for tickets that's why yield is down and the load factor is down so if passenger are up cargo down? anyway the concern would be if yield goes lower and the load factor goes lower

[Raz]

Just reading through the monthly investors update where they are talking about the changes to the Airpoints programme.

Airpoints have split from FlyBuys and are allowing members to earn points through New World, Z and Mitre 10, and a number of other retailers and service providers. Interesting changes.

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

With so many of the cheap fares now being grabaseat, point accumulation will slow which will also help AIRs cost today however will it be advantageous for a spin off??

[OldGuy]

i thought cargo is making more money than people, am i right?

no, cargo is only a small fraction of the business.

[winner69]

Operating stat's were consistent with information indicated during the analysts conference call and are okay in the prevailing highly competitive environment in my opinion.

Concern would be that revenues are down more YTD (v last year) in August than they were in July.

Wouldn't want that trend to continue would we

[simjp81]

I have a question about how the dividend is payed out. My tax rate is 33% so will they deduct the full 33% and then i claim the 28% back as imputation at end of tax year, or do they deduct 5% (difference between 28 and 33). Thanks to whomever replys.

[unhuman]

They deduct 5% as RWT.

[simjp81]

They deduct 5% as RWT.

So to confirm, i will be paid the gross amount minus 5% is that right?

[777]

So to confirm, i will be paid the gross amount minus 5% is that right?

Look at my post #8598

You will get .35/.72*.67*the number of shares you have.

[bull....]

Look at my post #8598

You will get 35/.72*.67*the number of shares you have.

according I get 1628472.22 well looks good lol

[Zaphod]

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

I've raised this very point a couple of times, and the answer at this point in time there is no intention to sell Airpoints. Perhaps a partial float just like AC have done with Aeroplan might be on the cards? Unfortunately I haven’t been able to extract any further information from them.

[777]

according I get 1628472.22 well looks good lol

Decimal point put in for you so only 16,284.72 for you

[BlackPeter]

So to confirm, i will be paid the gross amount minus 5% is that right?

No. Obviously it all depends on your personal circumstances (i.e. are you NZ tax resident and / or did you lodge a certificate of exemption).

However - most people will receive the declared amount (i.e. 35cts / share) minus roughly 7% RWT off the declared dividend, i.e. they do get 93% of the declared dividend (which is not the gross dividend) into their bank account.

The gross dividend contains as well the imputation credits, which are not paid out. However - you may use them come filing time.

Does this help?

[simjp81]

Look at my post #8598

You will get .35/.72*.67*the number of shares you have.

Awesome. Thank you. On another note what ar peoples thoughts on the sub $2. Is it just a bad week or are we on a downward trend, again.

[BlackPeter]

Awesome. Thank you. On another note what ar peoples thoughts on the sub $2. Is it just a bad week or are we on a downward trend, again.

It obviously depends on which indicators you use to determine a downtrend. If you use the MA200, than AIR never left the downtrend, it is just continuing it.

[Snow Leopard]

Stats look OK with solid increase in ASKs to offset lower RASKs

Need Paper Tiger to confirm this is all OK - like no dramatic revenue decline

Does not look promising does it?

So there is a little tolerance in the figures due to rounding but here is what we have.

Short Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%

Long Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug 98.62% << worrying - if you were not expecting it.

Still 10 months to go and anything can happen - we just hope it doesn't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Just reading through the monthly investors update where they are talking about the changes to the Airpoints programme.

Airpoints have split from FlyBuys and are allowing members to earn points through New World, Z and Mitre 10, and a number of other retailers and service providers. Interesting changes.

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

Strange has it may seem but the loyalty program (where you give people something for free) has historically been the jewel in the crown for many airlines, and one that is not to be sold off lightly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Share & Enjoy*

*free copy of my report - "Why you should never invest in Airlines" - to the first person who correctly sources the references - Postage & Packing not included

[winner69]

It obviously depends on which indicators you use to determine a downtrend. If you use the MA200, than AIR never left the downtrend, it is just continuing it.

There was even one of those Death Crosses around the 280 mark - that that doesn't seem to be that long ago

No Golden Cross yet

[scottwalshnz]

Just reading through the monthly investors update where they are talking about the changes to the Airpoints programme.

Airpoints have split from FlyBuys and are allowing members to earn points through New World, Z and Mitre 10, and a number of other retailers and service providers. Interesting changes.

It got me wondering if AIR will be looking at selling off part of Airpoints in the next few years. That strategy has made pretty good money for other airlines in the past few years.

The opposite, they are more tightly embedding it. A number of companies are leaving the Flybuys program and instead moving to Airpoints (eg New World, Z). This locks people into the Airpoints program.

[Nasi Goreng]

There was even one of those Death Crosses around the 280 mark - that that doesn't seem to be that long ago

No Golden Cross yet

and then a huge head and shoulders break at around 250. The chart looks terrible right now, 1.70 - 1.80 is a possibility and then down to $1.50 which would seem absurd but stranger things have happened.

Of course, things could change immediately and we may be finding a bottom now. You can understand why buyers are hesitant having made lower lows but on the fundamental side, you can understand why new buyers may enter at around this price. At this stage, I've got a modest holding and I'm glad I've resisted the urge to top up and I don't think I will be, even if it goes to those lower levels.

[Snow Leopard]

Douglas Adams. Remember to carry a towel whenever you fly!

The Head of Marketing along with a team of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporations finest Robots are on the way to you right now with the all new beta* version of the Interactive Report Reader.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*the original beta version is still sulking.

[simjp81]

Im out. So long AIR. Its been a turbulent ride. Bought first round at $3.015 then a few times on the way down to around $2.05 at the lowest and then the last lot at $2.27 before the duv was announced. Too big a gap to kake up and i dont have the time to wait. Unfortunate but im new to this and have learned a lot. I have a resonably small amount of capital so have put it all in FNZ, MDZ, and DIV. Will continue to learn and build. Thanks to all for your comments, help and discussion on AIR over the last 4 months.

All thise still in, enjoy the ride and i wish you luck.

[Poet]

Does not look promising does it?

So there is a little tolerance in the figures due to rounding but here is what we have.

Short Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%

Long Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug 98.62% << worrying - if you were not expecting it.

Still 10 months to go and anything can happen - we just hope it doesn't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

[Snow Leopard]

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

I am the Tiger who got the fuel :D year estimate high by 33m. But my guess for FY2017 was $829M at an average spot of $44 for Brent, that was before the latest hedging figures came out (sorry been a bit lazy :p).

Not thought through the rest of the expenses in great detail but a wild guess would be a 'moderate' increase overall.

But all this sort of thing is hopefully catered for in that barn door $400M to $600M PBT range.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

I for one, will be very happy if they can keep the reduction in income at these levels for the rest of the financial year. This would imply revenue only down around $60m for full year, based on last years passenger revenue of $NZ4.5b.

Admittedly, there will most probably be extra costs yoy associated with providing more ASK's but on the face of it, fuel costs, at least, look as if they will be down yoy.

Last year fuel costs were $NZ846m from financial statements
This year projected usage from last fuel hedge disclosure is 8.7m barrels. If we use AIR's assumption of $US55 per barrel (so $NZ683m at 0.7 exchange rate) that's a full year saving of $151m

(Maybe I'm missing something here re the cost of fuel hedging being included in the $846 m fuel cost in financial statements, experts welcome to correct me)
Anyway, doesn't seem too bad a start to the year IMO

Yes absolutely. Over the medium term oil prices and yield are inextricably linked so most people with a good understanding of the industry like you do, understand that with cheap fuel comes more competitive airfares so the two items need to be considered in tandem. For those that follow this company closely there is nothing concerning in today's stat's when viewed in the context of the bigger picture.

[winner69]

FY17 fuel costs

Poet calculates $683m / the striped one guesses $829m

So $146m difference ....hmm

No wonder trying value AIR is so difficult

[winner69]

Back in June an unnamed analyst in a NBR story about AIR “I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,”

About says it all

[Snow Leopard]

FY17 fuel costs

Poet calculates $683m / the striped one guesses $829m

So $146m difference ....hmm

No wonder trying value AIR is so difficult

The question for Poet would be:
Using the same approach to calculating fuel costs what should it have cost AIR last year and my how much does his result differ from the figure in the accounts. ;)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Poet]

The question for Poet would be:
Using the same approach to calculating fuel costs what should it have cost AIR last year and my how much does his result differ from the figure in the accounts. ;)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT, short answer is IDK, long answer is I don't know.

At this time last year they were anticipating fuel at $US60 and had forex hedged at 0.777 (coincidence?, I think not). I no longer have access to their projected consumption as it was at that time. I'd be interested to know the figures if you have them (and if your question was rhetorical).

Cheers
P

[winner69]

So a close at 193.5

Low of the day - not a good sign

Tomorrow be better day?

[Beagle]

Back in June an unnamed analyst in a NBR story about AIR “I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,”

About says it all

Actually I think that's the pot calling the kettle black. Analysts have no more visibility that what the company gives them. The company with its $800m profit before tax and extraordinary items forecast for FY16 was much closer to the mark than any analyst and in regard to FY17 projections analysts were far too optimistic, (something I commented on several times) leading up to the updated guidance that was issued at the time of the Fy16 results.

Coincidence that the average analyst forecast before tax for FY17 is now $503m or is it that they're simply following AIR's management lead and picking the mid point of $400-600m ? I'd suggest they're simply following management's lead.

[Valuegrowth]

It may go down further. For me it is a long term play. Value investors will wait patiently to grab part of their business in the coming years. When compare with other Airlines, it is one of the safest airlines in the world. It is time to do some home work on their long term prospects.

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks PT, short answer is IDK, long answer is I don't know.

At this time last year they were anticipating fuel at $US60 and had forex hedged at 0.777 (coincidence?, I think not). I no longer have access to their projected consumption as it was at that time. I'd be interested to know the figures if you have them (and if your question was rhetorical).

Cheers
P

There you go: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/fuel-hedging-announcements

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you for the link. It looks like they have prudent hedging strategy.


There you go: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/fuel-hedging-announcements

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Last year MOPS whatever that is $54 /bbl - this year $55 used in forecast

Going to fly further - more fuel

So i reckon this year fuel cost to be greater than last years $846m - say $900m plus

But then what do I know - not much probably when it comes to AIR

[Poet]

There you go: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/fuel-hedging-announcements

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT,
So in Aug 2015, AIR had an estimated consumption of 8170k barrels at an estimated price of $US60 and forex at .777. So if I had carried out my back of the proverbial calculation at that time I would have projected fuel costs at $NZ630m. Actual fuel costs were $846m. Hmmm, so what do you think is wrong here?

I don't think consumption was hugely greater than they were expecting, nor price, (maybe exchange rate was somewhat lower). Am I missing something here?

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks PT,
So in Aug 2015, AIR had an estimated consumption of 8170k barrels at an estimated price of $US60 and forex at .777. So if I had carried out my back of the proverbial calculation at that time I would have projected fuel costs at $NZ630m. Actual fuel costs were $846m. Hmmm, so what do you think is wrong here?

I don't think consumption was hugely greater than they were expecting, nor price, (maybe exchange rate was somewhat lower). Am I missing something here?

Well, of course, it is complicated and, even to me :huh:, somewhat mysterious.

Obviously a quick start of the year calculation assuming constant conditions is going to differ from actual values because Brent price , Jet Fuel price and Exchange Rates vary over the year.

You obviously left off the hedging losses from your calculation but even when you have done all that you will still find a significant difference between your result and that $846M.

So there are significant other costs covered by the fuel line on the statement. As I say I missed the second half year fuel bill by $33M last year.

I have not refined (:rolleyes:) my model yet so, whatever I said before is a rough estimate but I hope I am in the right ballpark.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Vaygor1]

Back in June an unnamed analyst in a NBR story about AIR “I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,”

About says it all

The late Adam Thomson (1926–2000), chairman of Caledonian Airways from 1961 to 1970 and managing director and chairman of British Caledonian Airways from 1970 to 1987, said in 1984, “A recession is when you have to tighten your belt; depression is when you have no belt to tighten. When you’ve lost your trousers — you’re in the airline business.”

[Bobdn]

The late Adam Thomson (1926–2000), chairman of Caledonian Airways from 1961 to 1970 and managing director and chairman of British Caledonian Airways from 1970 to 1987, said in 1984, “A recession is when you have to tighten your belt; depression is when you have no belt to tighten. When you’ve lost your trousers — you’re in the airline business.”

Excellent!

[fish]

Excellent!

One to remember.
Thanks

[see weed]

The late Adam Thomson (1926–2000), chairman of Caledonian Airways from 1961 to 1970 and managing director and chairman of British Caledonian Airways from 1970 to 1987, said in 1984, “A recession is when you have to tighten your belt; depression is when you have no belt to tighten. When you’ve lost your trousers — you’re in the airline business.”
That's funny, I was thinking of buying a new pair of pants and some more AIR with the $42,000 div next Monday:D.

[Beagle]

AIR management hedged their maximum allowable amount, (within their policy) in January 2016 when oil was $30 barrel. AIR are enjoying that hedging this quarter.
Spot price is well under $55 barrel and hedging out to early 2017 is well under $55 barrel. Last year's average if I remember correctly was $60 barrel.
Conclusion AIR's estimate for fuel based on $55 barrel average this year looks to have a pretty reasonable degree of conservatism built into it.
I remain comfortable with $500m before tax which is 32 cps after tax, (apply whatever PE you think is right for the circumstances for whatever part of the cycle you think we are in), I think 7 is reasonable = fair value $2.24. Lines up pretty well with average analyst view.

[skid]

That's funny, I was thinking of buying a new pair of pants and some more AIR with the $42,000 div next Monday:D.

Buying more shares with the divi pretty much adds the lost value(Dividend) back to your AIR shares and (give or take)puts you back where you started---Everything else depends on the SP performance

[Poet]

AIR management hedged their maximum allowable amount, (within their policy) in January 2016 when oil was $30 barrel. AIR are enjoying that hedging this quarter.
Spot price is well under $55 barrel and hedging out to early 2017 is well under $55 barrel. Last year's average if I remember correctly was $60 barrel.
Conclusion AIR's estimate for fuel based on $55 barrel average this year looks to have a pretty reasonable degree of conservatism built into it.
I remain comfortable with $500m before tax which is 32 cps after tax, (apply whatever PE you think is right for the circumstances for whatever part of the cycle you think we are in), I think 7 is reasonable = fair value $2.24. Lines up pretty well with average analyst view.

I've decided that I'm not going to worry about the cost side of the equation this year (I'll reconsider this strategy if there are any large movements in the oil price or exchange rate between now and end of period). AIR probably have a very accurate picture of the cost side of the equation and as PT said earlier, this will already be factored into the $400 to $600m guidance.

That just leaves revenue.

My guess is that the $600m guidance has factored in 5% revenue downturn yoy and that the $400m guidance has factored in a 10% downturn (given that the revenue shortfall will go straight to profit line and $200m guidance range is around 5% of revenue)

So two months into the year, we have revenue only down 1.5% yoy therefore I'm currently of the opinion that ytd we are tracking at and probably above the $600m profit line.

Of course, plenty of time for further deterioration in revenue and I'll certainly be watching op stats closely for signs of this. Just right now though, we appear to be flying in clear air.

[winner69]

AIR said that F16 MOPS was US$54 / bbl (down from US$90 in F15)

What's MOPS

Still learning

[Beagle]

AIR said that F16 MOPS was US$54 / bbl (down from US$90 in F15)

What's MOPS

Still learning

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_of_Platts_Singapore

[winner69]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_of_Platts_Singapore

Ah so

MOPS is the average of a set of Singapore-based oil product price assessments published by Platts, a global energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture ...

[Beagle]

Should have been in the appendix, glossary of terms...suppose they felt the need to leave us to do some homework of our own :)

[BIRMANBOY]

Expand your thinking.....lowering your average price will make it easier to achieve a trading profit/margin if you are trading and in the meantime until that occurs gives you a greater dividend yield % return on your capital. Obviously if you are a dividend yield investor long term then buying in dips is where you ultimately have the opportunity of pushing up the yield % to max advantage.
Buying more shares with the divi pretty much adds the lost value(Dividend) back to your AIR shares and (give or take)puts you back where you started---Everything else depends on the SP performance

[winner69]

Ah so

MOPS is the average of a set of Singapore-based oil product price assessments published by Platts, a global energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture ...

or

Mean of Platts Singapore


Paper Tiger no doubt can tell us MOPS is today .... and for July/August to see how it's going against US$55

[see weed]

Expand your thinking.....lowering your average price will make it easier to achieve a trading profit/margin if you are trading and in the meantime until that occurs gives you a greater dividend yield % return on your capital. Obviously if you are a dividend yield investor long term then buying in dips is where you ultimately have the opportunity of pushing up the yield % to max advantage.
Have put plan B into action a couple of days ago. Only need to do two or three trades, which drops av. price 2c per trade. My av. price for AIR is $2.10c without div. and $1.75 with div.

[sb9]

So a close at 193.5

Low of the day - not a good sign

Tomorrow be better day?

Looks like another lower day coming up...testing 190 perhaps???

[see weed]

Looks like another lower day coming up...testing 190 perhaps???
Good aye. I like to buy at end of day, in the last 15 minutes, when the late sellers have had enough and just want to get out. Sometimes you can get them 1c or 2c below your buy price;).

[simjp81]

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark.

[BlackPeter]

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark.

KW would say ... never buy shares in a downtrend ... she only used to use less polite words;)

[percy]

And she is again being proved right.!

[simjp81]

KW would say ... never buy shares in a downtrend ... she only used to use less polite words;)

Im green at this game. How do you know when your not in a down trend? Are there indicators that the bottom has likely been reached?

[simjp81]

I dont know how anyone could possibly say we have hit the bottom with any certainty.

[Baa_Baa]

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark.

$1.80 offers strong technical price support being the 61.8% fib retrace of the 4-year bull run from August 2012, also horizontal price support between the $1.75 low and $1.815 close of the week end 17 Oct 2014. Below that is $1.35 ish which is also around the 78.6% fib retrace and Sept 2013 horizontal price support.

As has been mentioned, on a capital basis the SP has been in a confirmed down trend (weekly basis) since mid April 2016, so buying into the down trend defies technical analysis logic, albeit there are other many other factors in play as people here are happy to share.

[simjp81]

$1.80 offers strong technical price support being the 61.8% fib retrace of the 4-year bull run from August 2012, also horizontal price support between the $1.75 low and $1.815 close of the week end 17 Oct 2014. Below that is $1.35 ish which is also around the 78.6% fib retrace and Sept 2013 horizontal price support.

As has been mentioned, on a capital basis the SP has been in a confirmed down trend (weekly basis) since mid April 2016, so buying into the down trend defies technical analysis logic, albeit there are other many other factors in play as people here are happy to share.

Thanks Baa Baa. So how do you decide nows the time to buy in? I mean there must be a point to look for otherwise you would never buy in. Appreciate the help.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks Baa Baa. So how do you decide nows the time to buy in? I mean there must be a point to look for otherwise you would never buy in. Appreciate the help.

Well, you used the words "with any certainty" in another post, and you're referring to price bottoms and buying in, so the answer is you can't know with certainty. Everyone has their own risk/reward thresholds and indicators (fundamental and technical) that guide them to their decisions. Sorry, one can't precisely answer your question for you, only you can answer the question and even then you won't be "certain".

[Snow Leopard]

Yesterday:

Im out. So long AIR. Its been a turbulent ride. Bought first round at $3.015 then a few times on the way down to around $2.05 at the lowest and then the last lot at $2.27 before the duv was announced. Too big a gap to kake up and i dont have the time to wait. Unfortunate but im new to this and have learned a lot. I have a resonably small amount of capital so have put it all in FNZ, MDZ, and DIV. Will continue to learn and build. Thanks to all for your comments, help and discussion on AIR over the last 4 months.

All thise still in, enjoy the ride and i wish you luck.

Today:

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm5WxPdMGUI

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[simjp81]

Well, you used the words "with any certainty" in another post, and you're referring to price bottoms and buying in, so the answer is you can't know with certainty. Everyone has their own risk/reward thresholds and indicators (fundamental and technical) that guide them to their decisions. Sorry, one can't precisely answer your question for you, only you can answer the question and even then you won't be "certain".

Good answer. You're quite right.

[BIRMANBOY]

Please be kind enough to provide adequate warnings on these links......"viewers oestrogen levels may be severely elevated leading to intermittent and copious weeping". Handkerchiefs available in the Koru lounge.
Yesterday:


Today:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm5WxPdMGUI

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark. At that point my phone banking line would be red hot, of course come Monday I won't need the phone banking line once that XOS divvy hits my account, must look around for a new dump truck between now and then.

[Beagle]

Curious trait of human nature that all the haters love to bag this stock when it goes down. Psssttt - Don't tell any of them that on a dividend adjusted basis 1.93 + 35 cents = $2.28 its still trading above the 100 day moving average as they very conveniently overlook this gargantuan dividend because its suits their purposes. Time for a different song, Shake it Off - Note some of the key words Haters gonna Hate !! Been happening since Adam was a boy. P.S. Warm welcome back to Couta1. How's the skiing going mate ? Enjoy that $120,000 dividend on Monday !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWlot6h_JM

[couta1]

Curious trait of human nature that all the haters love to bag this stock when it goes down. Psssttt - Don't tell any of them that on a dividend adjusted basis 1.93 + 35 cents = $2.28 its still trading above the 100 day moving average as they very conveniently overlook this gargantuan dividend because its suits their purposes. Time for a different song, Shake it Off - Note some of the key words Haters gonna Hate !! Been happening since Adam was a boy. P.S. Warm welcome back to Couta1. How's the skiing going mate ? Enjoy that $120,000 dividend on Monday ! Good mate, no crowds today at Coronet so did quite a few balls out runs taking some Air along the way. Yep many of the detractors seem blind to the fact that the whole market is undergoing a correction at the moment, actually I reckon Air is holding up pretty well. PS-Just hoping the market doesn't decide to bounce much before next week.

[Beagle]

Good mate, no crowds today at Coronet so did quite a few balls out runs taking some Air along the way. Yep many of the detractors seem blind to the fact that the whole market is undergoing a correction at the moment, actually I reckon Air is holding up pretty well.

My investment recommendation for your dividend is as follows. Import this and I'll help you run it in. You might even get some more AIR shares with the balance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xbtZUS3Vww

[percy]

The Revolving Door..?
Welcome back Couta1.
Back soon Roger.?

[couta1]

The Revolving Door..?
Welcome back Couta1.
Back soon Roger.? Thanks Percy, Every thread needs a good sprinkling of humour for seasoning I reckon.

[percy]

Thanks Percy, Every thread needs a good sprinkling of humour for seasoning I reckon.

Since selling out of AIR in April I have found this thread has been even funnier than PEB,[which I have never owned.!!]
Educational too. Learnt today what MOPS means.!!..lol.
ps.Enjoy you divie.!

[Xerof]

The Revolving Door..?
Welcome back Couta1.
Back soon Roger.?

perhaps the perception is we can only cope with one at a time? Oops, might be a zone of endangerment.

Roger is quite right - the charts take no account of the significant reduction of NTA caused by the special, and the ordinary divi; instead all the indicators etc build that in and give the impression its had a price collapse. Adjusted, we still have a series of higher highs and higher lows, if my eyes aren't deceiving me

[Raz]

perhaps the perception is we can only cope with one at a time? Oops, might be a zone of endangerment.

Roger is quite right - the charts take no account of the significant reduction of NTA caused by the special, and the ordinary divi; instead all the indicators etc build that in and give the impression its had a price collapse. Adjusted, we still have a series of higher highs and higher lows, if my eyes aren't deceiving me

well said..it has been amusing to watch.

[winner69]

That Taylor Swift pretty heavy on players, haters, heartbreakers and fakers but at the end of the day she just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake and then shake it off

I think I'm in the heartbroken group at the moment

[Raz]

That Taylor Swift pretty heavy on players, haters, heartbreakers and fakers but at the end of the day she just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake and then shake it off

I think I'm in the heartbroken group at the moment

At least she is wealthy and influential..does the rest really matter...I see Ralph Norris is opening up the conference I'm attending tomorrow in Queenstown..what should I ask him wrt to Air? hmmm where to start!

[Baa_Baa]

8300

Here's the weekly log scale chart (the Tiger would beat me up if it was arithmetic), showing the 4-year bull run and clear uptrend. It also shows the breakdown and the new down trend lines, but not the H&S pattern which performed to text book (hat tip to Xerof and Hoop) and the current situation vis a vis the Fib's and the $1.80 and $1.35 supports mentioned earlier.

What this capital value chart doesn't show is the whole story, and a capital value chart never will (Snoopy taught me that), the part about the missing 'gross' value including dividends. This confines the chart to being useful for a new entry, a capital sensitive investor, or a medium term trader. But that's also why I like the weekly charts.

[winner69]

Wonder what this graphic will look like for FY2017

Starting off at $806m on left hand side to $500m on right hand side - must be some down bars

Irrespective of the components we know its likely to be $500m odd in F17 and that's factored into the share price at the moment (isn't it)

Like to see somebody come up with a similar graphic to show $300m for F17 - then we might be talking a share price of $1.50. Then we might understand why you are so down on AIR

[couta1]

But remember winner in 2015 at 474 million profit the share price was in the $2.50 -$2.70 range so at 500 million odd for F17, share price currently seriously undervalued aye. PS-Talk of 300 mill and corresponding graphs is a red herring mate.

[OldGuy]

you really need to work with dividend adjusted prices for this to add any value to the debate (IMHO)
8300

Here's the weekly log scale chart (the Tiger would beat me up if it was arithmetic), showing the 4-year bull run and clear uptrend. It also shows the breakdown and the new down trend lines, but not the H&S pattern which performed to text book (hat tip to Xerof and Hoop) and the current situation vis a vis the Fib's and the $1.80 and $1.35 supports mentioned earlier.

What this capital value chart doesn't show is the whole story, and a capital value chart never will (Snoopy taught me that), the part about the missing 'gross' value including dividends. This confines the chart to being useful for a new entry, a capital sensitive investor, or a medium term trader. But that's also why I like the weekly charts.

[skid]

But remember winner in 2015 at 474 million profit the share price was in the $2.50 -$2.70 range so at 500 million odd for F17, share price currently seriously undervalued aye. PS-Talk of 300 mill and corresponding graphs is a red herring mate.

They have warned it could be 400mil..Half---may not end up being that bad, but its safely out of the ''red herring'' category

Meanwhile,have a good time partying on that dividend (but dont necessarily expect new investors to finance it by buying in at a premium to cover the loss to the companies value) You know what they say about having the cake and eating it too..

[Arbroath]

But remember winner in 2015 at 474 million profit the share price was in the $2.50 -$2.70 range so at 500 million odd for F17, share price currently seriously undervalued aye. PS-Talk of 300 mill and corresponding graphs is a red herring mate.

There is one big difference couta - in 2015 many were thinking it was blue sky for earnings in 2016 and they did deliver 806m pre tax which was impressive. If they do 450-550m in 2017 its on the way down, and the worry will be 2018 might be 300-350m.

Don't get me wrong I'm long as I think across the cycle they can deliver 20cps dividend and are worth $2.00-2.50 based on 8x earnings across the cycle. I particularly like the virtuous cycle of new aircraft being more fuel efficient which enables AIR to compete very effectively. Also despite the serious competition getting passengers to/from NZ AITR has a huge domestic franchise with 85-90% market share and more people coming to NZ enhances that, acknowledging Jetstar are muddying the domestic yield a little.

[Jay]

Most charts don't seem to adjust for dividends paid and mostly it is not significant (as Pharedus has said, don't sweat the small stuff), but when it is nearly 15% of the price makes a huge difference to charts.
The Data I subscribe to does not seem to adjust for dividends, anyone know free data that does??

[bonmaklad]

I don't like to pick bottoms but I am already planning to double up on AIR shares if it goes below 1.9.... the yield becomes too tempting! My BE is below 1.8 and if it ever did reach there.... I may pull out....

It is strange. I valued AIR at 2.81 before confirmation of profit and now it's been confirmed, I now value at 2.98... So I am very much looking forward to riding this up past 2.4 from October to February.

- Apparently Delusional -

[Xerof]

Also despite the serious competition getting passengers to/from NZ AITR has a huge domestic franchise with 85-90% market share and more people coming to NZ enhances that, acknowledging Jetstar are muddying the domestic yield a little.

I'm not sure Jetstar are doing much 'damage' to AIR. They made AIR honest with pricing years ago, and quite frankly, have assisted making AIR into the great airline it has become today. Nothing wrong with competition is there....look how sharp they have become right across the company

I saw some figures recently that stated Jetstar had increased passenger volumes (not sure what actual measurement it was) by 39%, and AIR had also increased by 2.4% on a like-for-like basis. The only thing thats happening is the flying pie is growing, (which I said a few years ago when people got all tichy and antsy about Jetstar growing it's routes) and the smaller operator is picking a good share of the 'new' flyers up (which makes sense, as it would most likely be that segment of our demographic who haven't flown much in the past due to the expense)

As you say, AIR still has 80/85% of domestic - there is nothing to worry about.....is there?

[Xerof]

Most charts don't seem to adjust for dividends paid and mostly it is not significant (as Pharedus has said, don't sweat the small stuff), but when it is nearly 15% of the price makes a huge difference to charts.
The Data I subscribe to does not seem to adjust for dividends, anyone know free data that does??

Most recent charting packages, (being the past 15 to 20 years) and the attendant plethora of indicators were designed for FX markets, where there is 24 hour trading, no dividends, splits, rights issues, etc etc to distort the data. I don't know of any free charts that allow adjustments to equities. Maybe Esignal does, but it's certainly not free, nor is the data stream.

Oh, I have just now seen Hoops has posted an excellent response on this subject over at TA HQ. I suggest you read that post

[Jay]

Thanks Xerof
Read and understood ... I think!

[h2so4]

I don't like to pick bottoms but l -
...bad habit.:)

[skid]

I don't like to pick bottoms but I am already planning to double up on AIR shares if it goes below 1.9.... the yield becomes too tempting! My BE is below 1.8 and if it ever did reach there.... I may pull out....

It is strange. I valued AIR at 2.81 before confirmation of profit and now it's been confirmed, I now value at 2.98... So I am very much looking forward to riding this up past 2.4 from October to February.

- Apparently Delusional -

Everyone else has tried to pick the bottom all the way down from $3--no reason why you should not give it a try!:)

[Onion]

I don't like to pick bottoms

...bad habit.:)

Bottoms, noses, horses... can all be bad habits.

Stick to picking flowers.

Disc: I "picked" some AIR at 1.94 on Monday, thought briefly that I was clever on Tuesday, have been reminded of my limitations since then!

[see weed]

How many mills. will be paid out on Monday's div? How many mills. going back into AIR at these low prices? And is tonight the last chance to get a bargain before sp goes back to $1.99c;). And on that note, just bought another load just in case:).

[couta1]

Bottoms, noses, horses... can all be bad habits.

Stick to picking flowers.

Disc: I "picked" some AIR at 1.94 on Monday, thought briefly that I was clever on Tuesday, have been reminded of my limitations since then! You were clever, no point in arguing over a cent here or there now is there.

[couta1]

How many mills. will be paid out on Monday's div? How many mills. going back into AIR at these low prices? And is tonight the last chance to get a bargain before sp goes back to $1.99c;). Now come on see weed you forgot to finish off your sentence, it should read the last chance to get a bargin before sp goes back to $1.99c on route to $2.50.:cool:

[see weed]

Now come on see weed you forgot to finish off your sentence, it should read the last chance to get a bargin before sp goes back to $1.99c on route to $2.50.:cool:
Didn't want to get too greedy. Always conservative. Would of been happy with 5c special, but will take 25c :t_up:. Maybe 2.10 then, after 1.99.

[winner69]

Everyone else has tried to pick the bottom all the way down from $3--no reason why you should not give it a try!:)

What you reckon the bottom to be then skid?

[see weed]

I gotta gut feeling sp could rise soon;).

[skid]

What you reckon the bottom to be then skid?

I have no idea--but I can tell what it was'nt---2.90,..2.85..2.80 ..etc etc. etc.

Sooner or later someone has to be right..but there may be more ''wrongs'' before.--- This is a ''sky City'' share imo.

(some like 1.70)

One thing i think most would agree on (or should agree on)--This has been a very treaterous share to be in since the $3 days

[couta1]

I have no idea--but I can tell what it was'nt---2.90,..2.85..2.80 ..etc etc. etc.

Sooner or later someone has to be right..but there may be more ''wrongs'' before.--- This is a ''sky City'' share

(some like 1.70) Who really cares, as long as they keep running a great business and churning out good profits and paying excellent divvies. PS-Sky City is one of the only companies on the NZX I will never buy a share in.

[winner69]

I have no idea--but I can tell what it was'nt---2.90,..2.85..2.80 ..etc etc. etc.

Sooner or later someone has to be right..but there may be more ''wrongs'' before.--- This is a ''sky City'' share imo.

(some like 1.70)

One thing i think most would agree on (or should agree on)--This has been a very treaterous share to be in since the $3 days

So 1.70 - we'll see

Treaterous - love that description, implies many of the smart ones on this thread are looking forward to many treats in coming months

[skid]

So 1.70 - we'll see

Treaterous - love that description, implies many of the smart ones on this thread are looking forward to many treats in coming months

I knew that didnt look quite right when I typed it!:):)..blame spellcheck for not bailing me out! (but my gut told me it was right,seaweed:)

[Snow Leopard]

I have been meaning to add dividend compensation to my charting software for ages and the AIR special was the catalyst to try and do it.

In the course of adding a feature a few other features broke but here for you delight we have the last 4 months of AIR:

Blue/Green/Red curves are 15/50/200 day EMA

Without dividend compensation:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20160916-1.png

With dividend compensation:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20160916-2.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Off to see Sully (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/sully) this evening
https://resizing.flixster.com/4TrXKZnZyDGO9yYbVuenus44ajw=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjA5MzQ4NTtqOzE3MTA0OzEyMDA7Mjc2NDs0MDk2

[winner69]

Bottom chart looks pretty healthy - and an uptrend still in place

[Xerof]

Nice work PT. It is as my jaundiced eyeball thought it looked like - higher highs and higher lows, since the CD 2.02 low.

Nobody has been brave enough to mention exiting the NZX15 today, but I guess that's been the recent overhang, and there was very little left to be done by the looks after the close today, just a couple of hundred K. TBH, I have no idea of just how many funds would have had to exit, let alone volumes, but no turbulence was observable in the end.

[Baa_Baa]

@PT nice chart, it will look betterer and betterer the farther back the dividends are added in, just like the nzx50 gross is about 3x the nzx50 capital. Good work, getting cracking on that back data and fixing the broken bits. 👍🏻🤓

[Gringo]

AIR has become a kind of Contrarian investment for me now, to hold medium term - until something drastic changes with the company, or it gets high PE overvalued again & div. yield drops. No one rings a bell at the bottom to indicate max. pessimism, but quite happy to go against the herd and increase at these 2yr-low prices... "Buy in gloom, Sell in boom". And a healthy income to compound growth along the way. No worries ;)

[Raz]

AIR has become a kind of Contrarian investment for me now, to hold medium term - until something drastic changes with the company, or it gets high PE overvalued again & div. yield drops. No one rings a bell at the bottom to indicate max. pessimism, but quite happy to go against the herd and increase at these 2yr-low prices... "Buy in gloom, Sell in boom". And a healthy income to compound growth along the way. No worries ;)

The key to me is that AIR can refine its processes however this will have no material bearing on its potential or its current future, its potential to perform better than expected comes down to one aspect and that is the fuel price. An analyst mentioned to me 45 airlines directly/indirectly expected to be in NZ market place this year.

When the fuel price rises this is when competition will drop off and in turn potential market size will change, RPK etc., in time. People are now in this for the dividend stream as we have been provided with a forecast from AIRs management, (which in the current environment is a little unusual) which should be aiming to set realistic expectations. The only excuse for missing this forecast for management is a black swan event otherwise they are raising pressure & questions on how competent they are.

So those that staying in, are here for yield while those offloading are not seeing it, performance and in turn SP, and often selling from an earlier and lower buy in price.
That is important as the later are still currently a large percentage of the holders, volumes daily are still solid.

You have much clarity on this share and its prospects now as you are likely ever to get. If you are after yield and want your cake as well, buying in at the optimal share price, then you should already be out of the market and waiting for the turn..good luck determining the shadow inventory, think you will be using a lot of energy agonising over that one.

If you are happy for the potential yield as forecast, then you should just ride it out and place your energy in to a more productive pursuit! Unless you like to trade:-)

[boysy]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11711085

Cheaper fares anticipated to keep coming. No doubt these cheaper fares have to be bought in specific windows ahead of time but the pressure will certainly be on air to drop fares to keep the planes full. Good mention of AIRs previous Hawaii monopoly with fares falling from $2500 return 2 years ago with specials now under $700 from other operators.

[skid]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11711085

Cheaper fares anticipated to keep coming. No doubt these cheaper fares have to be bought in specific windows ahead of time but the pressure will certainly be on air to drop fares to keep the planes full. Good mention of AIRs previous Hawaii monopoly with fares falling from $2500 return 2 years ago with specials now under $700 from other operators.

And thats whats its all about folks--We have seen the numbers for the past--Its the future, the market is concerned with--It all comes down to company performance=Share price (after deducting the influence of international markets in general)---so its by no means a simple equation--(the numbers were pretty good all the way down from $3)
Those buying for the dividend--I think most have realized that this is not a clear cut ''gift''--this was a big one and although most came out in the black,all that risk some took, ended up for 4-6c in the clear (and nothing if you waited for the last week)..not the kind of thing you go to the bank and get a loan for.
There may be an influence from fuel cost,but it all boils down to market share--bums on seats,and what it takes to get them there (the balance sheet could suffer or maybe things can carry on with last years strategy of a premium for the brand--So keep your ears open and listen to what the ordinary public are saying---Are they raving about the now cheap prices to XX or are they saying ''no way on that airline''.....its a complicated mix

so far what Im hearing is the general public is raving about the prices and some of the business customers(at least the ones on here),talking about brand.

[Xerof]

If my inbox is any judge of competitiveness on International, then yes they are marketing very hard on that. Not so much on domestic though, and if my daughters experience in trying to get AKL to PN yesterday is indicative of domestic loadings, then bring on the international competition - they are ferrying passengers to the AIR and Jetstar domestic terminals in their droves. yippee

She had a booked flexi on the 6pm, went out early to change to the 3pm - FULL. 5pm - FULL, so was left with her original seat. Regrettably that was delayed 2 hours, then broke down on the tarmac, so cancelled. There are no other spare seats direct to PN until Sunday, so she went to Kapiti Coast this morning.


Anyway, you get my point - the domestic near-monopoly appears to be in good heart, even if the tin cans are overheating at times

Flight saga update: my daughter just emailed to say 2 unsuccessful attempts to land at Kapiti, so diverted to PN...her boyfriend is waiting at Kapiti though....

I did tell her to go Jetstar - they are far more reliable, read the on-time stats :eek2:

[Raz]

Those deals are for attracting people to the travel expos, they are so limited and timing wise not an opportunity for most..sector specific Air NZ marketing is impressive and like all processes will seek continuous improvement however none of these processes will be a game changer. fuel is the key until is changes imho they are stuck in the current competetive dynamic market, they will attract the market share as before based on their current channels, just like others will exploit their respective channels, new networks have a real lag to be developed...

[simjp81]

Anyone know how long it takes to clear a dividend from the link market services? No dividend payment in the bank this morning.

[sb9]

Anyone know how long it takes to clear a dividend from the link market services? No dividend payment in the bank this morning.

From my experience Link payments get cleared funds by late evening...whereas Computer share payments does appear by mid morning. Since Link does AIR registry, I would expect payments to appear later in the evening.

[winner69]

Going to be an UP week for AIR this week

Back to at least $2

No worries

[777]

Anyone know how long it takes to clear a dividend from the link market services? No dividend payment in the bank this morning.

Patience.Patience. In the old days (only about 12 months ago) you would not expect to see it show in your account until tomorrow morning due to banks actioning all transactions during the night.

I did wake up this morning and wondered how long it would be before the " where is my dividend" posts would start. Well it turned out to be 9.36.

[see weed]

Patience.Patience. In the old days (only about 12 months ago) you would not expect to see it show in your account until tomorrow morning due to banks actioning all transactions during the night.

I did wake up this morning and wondered how long it would be before the " where is my dividend" posts would start. Well it turned out to be 9.36.
If they pay div. after midnight tonight, then they will save themselves about $27,000....one days interest at 2.5%:).

[777]

If they pay div. after midnight tonight, then they will save themselves about $27,000....one days interest at 2.5%:).

Rubbish. The transaction used to go through at the payment date but did not show in your account until the the next day. It was a limitation of the banks which did all it's transactions during the night.

It is history now so not worth discussing.

[Xerof]

no, it's 'value 19th', so they don't earn an extra day

oops, not worth discussing, 777 has done it for me

[winner69]

If they pay div. after midnight tonight, then they will save themselves about $27,000....one days interest at 2.5%:).


Yes, $392m is a lot of cash

Help make that "Total Shareholder Return" a bit healthier eh - especially as share price has been a bit of a disaster

Suppose things like TSR are a decent component of management's outrageous incentive scheme

Sneaky stuff

[thestg]

If you log onto Link Market Services, you will find under payments a pdf informing that they have already made payment.

[Xerof]

I noted Morningstar updated today, as they have changed their analyst. Must have gone to the same analyst school, coz the fair value price target hasn't changed - still $2.60

[Snow Leopard]

Going to be an UP week for AIR this week

Back to at least $2

No worries

Up In The Air (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/up_in_the_air_2009): Now that was a good movie

https://resizing.flixster.com/Ug1J8OsFI61YqTVyfTczmb_Wsbg=/300x300/v1.aDsxMjMzMTtqOzE3MTAwOzEyMDA7NjUyOzM5MQ

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

Well for those interested in divvy payment details, mine is in bank a/c.

[couta1]

120k divvy in bank plus all those lovely imputation credits to use, the Cat says you should fly airlines but not buy airlines but myself I prefer to take both options.

[Snow Leopard]

120k divvy in bank plus all those lovely imputation credits to use, the Cat says you should fly airlines but not buy airlines but myself I prefer to take both options.

Go spend, you know you want one: http://www.malmbergaviation.com/

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[see weed]

120k divvy in bank plus all those lovely imputation credits to use, the Cat says you should fly airlines but not buy airlines but myself I prefer to take both options.
Me happy here to. Had 120,000 at ex = $42,000 div. but got $39,083.33 after tax. If I had sold and made $42,000 before ex div., then would of paid about $7,350 tax. As it turned out, I did sell 15,000 at $2.40c before ex and made a couple of thousand, but wished I hadn't. But all up happy with that:cool:. Have since bought them back at $2.935c.

[percy]

Me happy here to. Had 120,000 at ex = $42,000 div. but got $39,083.33 after tax. If I had sold and made $42,000 before ex div., then would of paid about $7,350 tax. As it turned out, I did sell 15,000 at $2.40c before ex and made a couple of thousand, but wished I hadn't. But all up happy with that:cool:. Have since bought them back at $2.935c.

Silly boy !!..lol.
I would not have paid more than $1.9345.!!..lol.

[couta1]

I noted Morningstar updated today, as they have changed their analyst. Must have gone to the same analyst school, coz the fair value price target hasn't changed - still $2.60 If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[blockhead]

Denheath custard square with your coffee this morning Couta ?? must be tempting to splurge a little this morning !

[winner69]

Things settling down and cash in the bank ....but wasn't manna from heaven after all.

Dividend stripping - my return 5% over say 2 months - so so but in the context of 'dividend stripping' probably quite respectable. Must curb my enthusiasm / expectations for such things.

Does all this imply that about 25 cent dividend was expected and priced in to the share price pre announcement?

Looking forward likely that the share price will hover around $2 +/- a bit for the next year with a 20 cent dividend anticipated .....barring any disasters or bad news

Hmmm - hang around with this likely return or go seek something better somewhere else.

[skid]

Things settling down and cash in the bank ....but wasn't manna from heaven after all.

Dividend stripping - my return 5% over say 2 months - so so but in the context of 'dividend stripping' probably quite respectable. Must curb my enthusiasm / expectations for such things.

Does all this imply that about 25 cent dividend was expected and priced in to the share price pre announcement?

Looking forward likely that the share price will hover around $2 +/- a bit for the next year with a 20 cent dividend anticipated .....barring any disasters or bad news

Hmmm - hang around with this likely return or go seek something better somewhere else.

Your starting to see the big picture better than some W69--You've done ok so thats good (its not however the goose that laid the golden egg in terms of the entire div.)--Those with a huge divi will have to reinvest back in the co. to keep the same value in their portfolio (setting aside whether the share is going to go up or down--which of course is a consideration any investor makes before buying any share)
to illustrate we really need to ask those with a large divi ,what the state of their portfolio is in that share,post divi-(is it farther in the red?(or less in the black)
I would imagine in this case there is going to be some of the divi that is clear so in that sense the risk payed off--but to spend it all,you ,imo are spending some of that ''red arrow'' dosh.Maybe the SP will increase and make up for it ,and maybe it wont ..just trying to keep it real when deciding whether to buy strictly for the divis---This is not meant to spoil the party,so carry on.

[couta1]

Skid there's more than one big picture depending on how you view the artwork. PS-SP back over $2 very soon.

[blockhead]

Interested to know where you are going to plonk the nice juicy divy Couta ?, back in AIR or spread a bit ?

[couta1]

Interested to know where you are going to plonk the nice juicy divy Couta ?, back in AIR or spread a bit ? Spread a bit as I already bought more Air at $2 the day it went Ex.

[thestg]

I have just put halve of mine in Spark. They go XD in 2 days, so hope they have a quicker recovery.

[workingdad]

Actually workingdad shouted me a lovely breakfast in Q/town yesterday morning (Many Thanks and great to catch up with you) all the divvy is going back into the market today, I guess you could call that a splurge.

Was great to meet you and I trust the skiing went well afterwards, looked to be a cracker of a day as we headed past :) Shotover was a good blast (both times haha) and a quick run out to Wanaka before heading home - hope those rental cars don't have GPS, needed a prompt drive back to make check in.

AIR flight to Auckland full as far as I could tell.

Time to look at the bank balance with the divvy paid out and think about what to do, reinvest AIR or other...... Appears AIR SP settling down a bit and perhaps some reinvesting from holders today could give it a boost.

[skid]

Skid there's more than one big picture depending on how you view the artwork. PS-SP back over $2 very soon.

I believe you are talking about what you think the ''share performance'' will be,rather than whether your rather large dividend is all free money....as to the former ,you may be right ..or wrong.....all Im saying is you may have to throw some of that divi back in to get those red arrows more in line to where they were, pre Dividend (as things stand atm)
Each has their own risk appetite,and you have had a few houdini acts before ,so who knows where this will go?
As to new investors,your investing situation has become a recurring theme, so its only fair that someone pulls in the reigns occasionally.
No offense..by all accounts you are a gentleman.

(you may have passed my daughter on the slopes. She lives and works there.:)

[blackcap]

Is it me or is the AirNZ website not functioning properly. Trying to book a trip to HoChiMin City (vietnam) in July and its telling me I have to go via Singapore or HK. I thought they flew direct from June to October? Might have to give them a call and see what the problem is.

[dobby41]

Just you - they fly direct but not every day.
Via Singapore at 12:50am will save you $228 outward though.

[winner69]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

Couts - got my Springsteen tickets for Chch sorted

And even scored some $59 AIR flights to Chch for that afternoon

Thought AIR would have been on to that and made the cheap flights mysteriously disappear for that day to 'maximise shareholder returns'

Bit disappointed in that as a share holder

[blackcap]

Just you - they fly direct but not every day.
Via Singapore at 12:50am will save you $228 outward though.

Thanks dobby41, I will have to try again and see what the issue is. Cheers.

[777]

Thanks dobby41, I will have to try again and see what the issue is. Cheers.


With the B767 leaving the fleet in March the direct services have probably ceased for the time being. At least the timetable would indicate that.


https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/schedules/headeritd.aspx?countrycode=NZ&language=EN

[bull....]

air turning into the dividend strip flop, buyers who brought straight after ex date expecting a bounce losing plenty now

[couta1]

air turning into the dividend strip flop, buyers who brought straight after ex date expecting a bounce losing plenty now Typical short term thinking post, you only lose if you sell.

[stoploss]

Typical short term thinking post, you only lose if you sell.

Couta for the benefit of newbies , less sophisticated investors , retail investors etc there is a lot wrong with what you have said .
I think Peter Lynch sums it up in one of his excellent books , I can't quite remember the quote.
But along the lines if you purchased Xero @ $ 40.00 and it now trades at $ 20 , you Have a loss, doesn't matter if it is unrealised , or you haven't sold you absolutely have a loss.
It is the wrong mentality to think I haven't lost as I haven't sold . You have eroded your investing capital . Not to mention the opportunity cost of waiting for the day the share price goes back to $ 40.00.
Imaging if you were long Nokia or Kodak , it was half the price and you were waiting ......... the wait ended up costing you 100 % of your money .....RAK is a good example think of all the people long over $ 5.00
listening to excuses , excuses from the company ......all the way down to 20 cents . Try telling me you don't have a loss ? Couta do you really think they are going back to $ 5.00 ?

[babymonster]

1.90 might not hold today...

[couta1]

Couta for the benefit of newbies , less sophisticated investors , retail investors etc there is a lot wrong with what you have said .
I think Peter Lynch sums it up in one of his excellent books , I can't quite remember the quote.
But along the lines if you purchased Xero @ $ 40.00 and it now trades at $ 20 , you Have a loss, doesn't matter if it is unrealised , or you haven't sold you absolutely have a loss.
It is the wrong mentality to think I haven't lost as I haven't sold . You have eroded your investing capital . Not to mention the opportunity cost of waiting for the day the share price goes back to $ 40.00.
Imaging if you were long Nokia or Kodak , it was half the price and you were waiting ......... the wait ended up costing you 100 % of your money .....RAK is a good example think of all the people long over $ 5.00
listening to excuses , excuses from the company ......all the way down to 20 cents . Try telling me you don't have a loss ? Couta do you really think they are going back to $ 5.00 ? Your allowed your opinion,but I think your drawing a long bow by using stocks like Xro and RAK as comparisons. Firstly neither of those stocks are blue chip divvy paying stocks, neither have a majority Govt ownership and neither have been around anywhere near the time Air has, I wouldn't even compare RAK to Xro, its a complete dog that should have been put out of its misery years ago. Waiting if your long doesn't cost you any lost opportunities as long as this divvy machine keeps pumping them out at around the 20c a year rate its capable of doing. I could say more but will leave it at that for now.

[stoploss]

Your allowed your opinion,but I think your drawing a long bow by using stocks like Xro and RAK as comparisons. Firstly neither of those stocks are blue chip divvy paying stocks, neither have a majority Govt ownership and neither have been around anywhere near the time Air has, I wouldn't even compare RAK to Xro, its a complete dog that should have been put out of its misery years ago. Waiting if your long doesn't cost you any lost opportunities as long as this divvy machine keeps pumping them out at around the 20c a year rate its capable of doing. I could say more but will leave it at that for now.

Couta you missed something there , Nokia and Kodak were "Blue Chip" Both the biggest companies in their field in their day ....
Also remind us again why the Govt has a majority stake in Air NZ ....
My motivation for the post is to make novice investors etc aware of the risks of this sort of strategy . A lot of people logged in here don't contribute , let alone the people that are just watching not even signed up .......

[huxley]

Couta you missed something there , Nokia and Kodak were "Blue Chip" Both the biggest companies in their field in their day ....

Both Nokia and Kodak faced new technology disrupting their business model (both were also too slow to adapt to the change). Question: does AirNZ face similar challenges?

Dis don't hold

[couta1]

Couta you missed something there , Nokia and Kodak were "Blue Chip" Both the biggest companies in their field in their day ....
Also remind us again why the Govt has a majority stake in Air NZ ....
My motivation for the post is to make novice investors etc aware of the risks of this sort of strategy . A lot of people logged in here don't contribute , let alone the people that are just watching not even signed up ....... Fare enough but I know little about those companies and their divvy paying record, all I know is I'm happy to hold my XOS Air holding and to collect the excellent divvies over the coming years.PS-My advice to newbies is Never Panic Sell and that is an area I have learnt many hard lessons in.

[Joshuatree]

Im down a few cents on my AIR shares or even depending whether I've received 3 or 4 divs.Whats your situ couta; the special div certainly has helped us all? Still in the Red, how much?Sure is a cyclical play with many moving parts.

I agree with stop loss re that peter lynch said about a loss being a loss even if not crystallised, at this point in time.My consistent advice to newbies is to NEVER allow yourself to be influenced by anyone no matter what they say and how often they say it..Always make an informed opinion, read a lot; try and find neutral info from many sources. And remember we humans can fall in to the trap of investor bias; that is; if we have stake in something we focus on the positives to support our investments and neglect anything negative or alternative.

[skid]

Couta you missed something there , Nokia and Kodak were "Blue Chip" Both the biggest companies in their field in their day ....
Also remind us again why the Govt has a majority stake in Air NZ ....
My motivation for the post is to make novice investors etc aware of the risks of this sort of strategy . A lot of people logged in here don't contribute , let alone the people that are just watching not even signed up .......

Id like to elaborate,if I may...Many years ago when i first discovered Share trader,I thought all my Christmas's had come at once.I was obviously green but i thought ''here I have inside knowledge of what the clued in, Share market investors know (probably with inside info to help with their vast knowledge! Why should I pay a bunch of $$ to sign up for some share advice news letter--its all right here!......
Well,we all know how wrong that was. There is some good,some not so good,and some dangerous posters around.But the point is there are most likely others who may be in the same boat..tuning in for the first time.
Now of course some will just ''trash'' a share,sometimes for personal gain,and I can see how that rubs the wrong way..but Imo a bit of caution when things get a little out of hand is not a bad thing.
I think if anyone is in the red on a share ,that has to be faced,and accepted--You may break even or gain if the share goes up,but right now your in the red,thats reality--the share may still have potential...but right now,your down.
All investors have different ways of living with that,but promoting that your not down till you sell can be a dangerous state of mind and its worth pointing that out to new investors.
IMO we are entering an era, where the ''buy and hold'' strategy may be severely tested (with the share market in general) but that, alas is just my opinion. (something to research ,rather than acted on ,newbies)

But then again,maybe there are'nt any newbies around,and we are just talking to ourselves:):):)

[BlackPeter]

Both Nokia and Kodak faced new technology disrupting their business model (both were also too slow to adapt to the change). Question: does AirNZ face similar challenges?

Dis don't hold

Maybe not new technologies, though modern media are reducing the need for air travel.

More important however is that air travel is turning more and more into a commodity with price being the most important decision criteria for customers. AIR has similar problems as Fonterra - while milk powder needs to comply with stringent safety standards (as passenger planes), customers are not prepared to pay any more for good quality or good safety - just expect this as a given.

AIR have no moat whatsoever and will (as all other carriers) watch dropping margins over the years to come. Not a good situation to be in if you promised your share holders a constant flow of dividends, but than - so have others and broken their promises. AIR will be no exception.

[oldtech]

FWIW there's at least one newbie here! :)

I have a relatively small holding in AIR, and I've been watching the SP for the past week now and trying to decide whether this is a good time to top up and average down, or whether to resist the temptation to "throw good money after bad". Very much appreciating the differing viewpoints here, but rest assured whatever I decide will be MY decision alone for which I will take full responsibility. :eek2:

Thanks everyone for your contributions to this thread, please keep them up!

[couta1]

I've got far too much work to catch up on at the moment to be posting so must stop. Some non holders of this stock add value whilst others are just out to provoke a response and cause dissent IMO. I put posts such as #8908 in the latter category.

[bull....]

I've got far too much work to catch up on at the moment to be posting so must stop. Some non holders of this stock add value whilst others are just out to provoke a response and cause dissent IMO. I put posts such as #8908 in the latter category.

yes provoke a response, no malice intended just wanted too see how its going - by the way I own air

[RGR367]

I bought more today at 190 and I'm relaxed :) But I'm not yet on the div stripping of it, just averaging down folks.

[Gringo]

I know this forum is Share"trader", but there are 5 ways my (mainly income for retirement) portfolio grows: high div yield, div growth, SP appreciation, reinvesting all divs for compound growth - and making regular contributions as able. Reading the avail data I'm picking AIR will be able to maintain forecast div at least for a few yrs thru all parts of cycle - barring major disasters that could happen to any company. So I don't really mind if SP stays low for 10 months or so until AIR confirms the 20c div. Just more opportunity to buy more high yield cheaply on the dips & compound total return over time. Good luck to all anyway, whatever strategy you're employing :)

[Joshuatree]

FWIW 4traders have 6 Analysts all with a hold rating and av target price $2.20 atm
Craigs a hold and t/p $2.17

[see weed]

Good chance to top up some more tonight at these lower prices. :)

[skid]

Good chance to top up some more tonight at these lower prices. :)

Or you could be patient....could go either way...might be an idea to wait till your sure the US Fed is not going to do something unexpected.
If by the slim chance it did,you would get a much better buying opportunity.

[Gringo]

Or you could be patient....could go either way...might be an idea to wait till your sure the US Fed is not going to do something unexpected.
If by the slim chance it did,you would get a much better buying opportunity.

Interesting how the after market sale puts the SP @ 191.5 when theres offers @189 and bids @ 188.5

I agree Skid, although Fed rate rise seems largely expected now - hence high yielding stocks hammered a bit lately. Fridays at 5pm seems to be good top-up times too with weekend fear ;)

[winner69]

Singapore inaugral flight fronSIN/CBR has landed at WLG - looks smart on the tarmac

Leaves again tonite - less passengers flying AIR to AKL tonite to connect with the flight to SIN



But loved this tweet (apologies for bringing politics into it)

@JoelRowan: Singapore Airlines, with codeshare partner Wellington City Council Airways first slush-funded vanity flight from Canberra has landed.

[skid]

I agree Skid, although Fed rate rise seems largely expected now - hence high yielding stocks hammered a bit lately. Fridays at 5pm seems to be good top-up times too with weekend fear ;)

I dont think its expected this time around(but its possible)..but Christmas has higher odds..when it happens theres a good chance we may have to buckle up,if that last drop is anything to go by---its certainly got many scared. Just the thought of it got the markets in a tizzy.

You should know by tomorrow morning (Feds decision)

[Gringo]

I dont think its expected this time around(but its possible)..but Christmas has higher odds..when it happens theres a good chance we may have to buckle up,if that last drop is anything to go by---its certainly got many scared. Just the thought of it got the markets in a tizzy.

Yip. Trump getting in? come November will be interesting too... markets hating uncertainty and all that:eek2: Might be some good buying opportunities there too.

[skid]

Yip. Trump getting in? come November will be interesting too... markets hating uncertainty and all that:eek2: Might be some good buying opportunities there too.

It would be interesting to see who the voters run with, if the market is in turmoil(from a rate rise)

[blackcap]

I could be very wrong but ins't increased competition a major threat to profit? Ie AIR's costs on their routes are pretty much fixed, ie if you fly a plane with 100 ppl or with 200 the costs stay the same. But the revenue figure is very variable. Back of envelope stuff....

Revenue $5,000,000
Costs $4,500,000
Profit $500,000

However if revenue were to drop just 10% because passenger numbers are down or they have to discount tickets to get PAX up (like they are offering me a return to London for under $2000 which I am considering this winter) that would wipe out the profit entirely and thus no dividend.
That to me is the big risk.
Where have I gone wrong?
Conversely if revenue were to increase this would impact massively on the profit.
(btw I have been very liberal with my figures and note the annual revenue was $4.5mill or thereabouts and the profit was not $500 exactly but its good for illustration purposes)

[skid]

I could be very wrong but ins't increased competition a major threat to profit? Ie AIR's costs on their routes are pretty much fixed, ie if you fly a plane with 100 ppl or with 200 the costs stay the same. But the revenue figure is very variable. Back of envelope stuff....

Revenue $5,000,000
Costs $4,500,000
Profit $500,000

However if revenue were to drop just 10% because passenger numbers are down or they have to discount tickets to get PAX up (like they are offering me a return to London for under $2000 which I am considering this winter) that would wipe out the profit entirely and thus no dividend.
That to me is the big risk.
Where have I gone wrong?
Conversely if revenue were to increase this would impact massively on the profit.
(btw I have been very liberal with my figures and note the annual revenue was $4.5mill or thereabouts and the profit was not $500 exactly but its good for illustration purposes)

Theres more than one way to make money--(savings on your AIR ticket:)..a penny saved is a penny earned)

[Bobdn]

Costs are fixed...like oil you mean?

[RTFQ]

I could be very wrong but ins't increased competition a major threat to profit? Ie AIR's costs on their routes are pretty much fixed, ie if you fly a plane with 100 ppl or with 200 the costs stay the same. But the revenue figure is very variable. Back of envelope stuff....

Revenue $5,000,000
Costs $4,500,000
Profit $500,000

However if revenue were to drop just 10% because passenger numbers are down or they have to discount tickets to get PAX up (like they are offering me a return to London for under $2000 which I am considering this winter) that would wipe out the profit entirely and thus no dividend.
That to me is the big risk.
Where have I gone wrong?
Conversely if revenue were to increase this would impact massively on the profit.
(btw I have been very liberal with my figures and note the annual revenue was $4.5mill or thereabouts and the profit was not $500 exactly but its good for illustration purposes)


Yield will be down internationally. CL has said AIR will compete aggressively with the competition and filling seats with lower prices has already occurred, hence the share price. Its only in recent times AIR has made money internationally. The thing to remember is AIR makes most of its profit, some say 80%+, on its domestic operation where it has a huge market share. Other international airlines bringing tourists to NZ will benefit AIR domestically.

[couta1]

I've got far too much work to catch up on at the moment to be posting so must stop. Some non holders of this stock add value whilst others are just out to provoke a response and cause dissent IMO. I put posts such as #8908 in the latter category. As this post which I considered applicable and honest got me a warning from STMod following my recent ban,i've decided to take a long break from the forum(Not sure at this point if I'll come back at a later date) The place has become too PC for my liking and is not impartial in its moderation. I know Roger feels the same way and doubt whether he will be back in a hurry. The forum has lost many valuable contributors over the last couple of years and the question is why? Regards Couta

[axe]

Posted before but this chart has haunted me for over a year .... and every time I update I say to myself spooky stuff

Then I say no worries - it's just a stupid graphic

Super spooky. :). Chart says next GFC about to start?

[ohpark0119]

were there any other bad news other than http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11714184 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11714231?) ? or was it just a panic sell? thx. not sure if the article counts as bad news for the SP.

[winner69]

Super spooky. :). Chart says next GFC about to start?

Most forget that the NZ market started well before the GFC hit the world

AIR was no exception

No worries - this time is different

[skid]

Things seemed tickity boo until the SP started dropping like a stone--Its perfectly understandable some are going to be upset--Hell,it upset me a few times on the way down. some buy..some sell..some bet big..and some dont...no big deal..the slopes are still there for skiing:):mellow::(:mad ;::(:mellow::)

[Joshuatree]

Re that chart posted w69

Agree.It does look a pretty stupid graphic imo ; like a fat finger slip. Who did it and how do they justify the projected plunge may give it more credos; and its over a year old?

[Baa_Baa]

Looking through the balance of trades today http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-trades?S=AIR&E=NZSE, the volumes on the exit were greater accepting a lower price, than the volumes on the entry paying a higher price. Of course all volume is neutral in Toto as buy volume = sell volume, but the SP balance favoured sellers and suffered as a result. No trade volumes are large enough to suggest a 'major' exit (or entry), without knowing the source. It looks more like a pre-cautionary day prior to the Fed interest rates announcement, some get out or lighten their exposure due to perceived risk, while others see a bargain and buy the market. Tomorrow will be interesting, even if the US Fed don't raise their rates (which they could and would be shock), they might forecast or imply a rate rise, which will also be a negative influence on the market and in turn NZX. Intriguing times. There's not obvious local reason why the AIR SP has fallen below widely broadcast analysts predictions.

[Baa_Baa]

Re that chart posted w69

Agree.It does look a pretty stupid graphic imo ; like a fat finger slip. Who did it and how do they justify the projected plunge may give it more credos; and its over a year old?

MS Paint is a useful tool, albeit unsophisticated, usually obvious by a punter drawing a 'projected' SP curve over the top of a bona fide chart and pushing it through and beyond the price axis, thereby making it look like there is (might be) hell forthcoming. It's bunkum, certainly not founded in any decent recognised TA.

[Joshuatree]

Ok see where you're coming from re cyclic. Heres the 10 year chart from ASB with 30 and 60DMA

https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/D6589B29906430FCEB7D3DD717AC1670/external/largeimage/air/nzx?range=10y&adjust=1&chart=line&ma1=30&ma2=60&scale=linear&indicator=vol

[winner69]

You guys have upset / offended me so much I have packed a sad and thrown the toys out of the cot and deleted all my posts about that unsophisticated bunkum spooky graphic i posted.

[King1212]

Ok see where you're coming from re cyclic. Heres the 10 year chart from ASB with 30 and 60DMA

https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/D6589B29906430FCEB7D3DD717AC1670/external/largeimage/air/nzx?range=10y&adjust=1&chart=line&ma1=30&ma2=60&scale=linear&indicator=vol

mate, u might have to give us your log in name n password so we can see the chart..also to see your portfolio:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Thanks King. If someone can post a 10 year chart up , thanks.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks King. If someone can post a 10 year chart up , thanks.

Here you go, a Monthy chart. Sometimes it helps to step back and look at the long term, this is the monthly chart. It's not really all that encouraging is it? To me it looks like 1.80 - 1.75 is pretty good support but who knows what will happen below that. Probably nothing to do with AIR fundamentals, more about SP risk reward at this stage.

8321

[King1212]

Relax people....go and enjoyed the dividend that u just got...leave AIR alone...i am going to away this weekend with AIR and spending the dividend....catch u all.....

[Snow Leopard]

AIR Annual Meet on the 30th

They should be pretty confident of the half year result by then, and some updated and more precise guidance for the full year could help things along.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*Yes,another cryptic one from the Tiger.
Refers to two things.
One is happening, but will the other?

[skid]

Relax people....go and enjoyed the dividend that u just got...leave AIR alone...i am going to away this weekend with AIR and spending the dividend....catch u all.....

You dont leave shares your invested in alone....You research them.....enjoy your dividend(at least the amount you have in the clear)
nevertheless a good vacation is good advice!

[skid]

Logic would say there should be a bit of relief rise today if outside markets have been the cause of the SP fall--(Id keep my finger on the pulse of the next FED meeting though)

[Master98]

lol, lots of Tire Kickers here, out of interest here as well.

[see weed]

Logic would say there should be a bit of relief rise today if outside markets have been the cause of the SP fall--(Id keep my finger on the pulse of the next FED meeting though)
Have you ever heard of.....A Wing And A Prayer:)

[OldGuy]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;637694]Here you go, a Monthy chart. Sometimes it helps to step back and look at the long term, this is the monthly chart. It's not really all that encouraging is it? To me it looks like 1.80 - 1.75 is pretty good support but who knows what will happen below that. Probably nothing to do with AIR fundamentals, more about SP risk reward at this stage.

8321[/QUOTE=Baa_Baa;637694]

I'm sorry, but this chart (and your interpretation of it) is totally flawed/misleading because it isn't adjusted for the massive dividend just received by all holders. I really hope people don't make TA decisions by putting silly lines on unadjusted charts like this. I mean, really!

[OldGuy]

Here you go, a Monthy chart. Sometimes it helps to step back and look at the long term, this is the monthly chart. It's not really all that encouraging is it? To me it looks like 1.80 - 1.75 is pretty good support but who knows what will happen below that. Probably nothing to do with AIR fundamentals, more about SP risk reward at this stage.

8321

I'm sorry, but this chart (and your interpretation of it) is totally flawed/misleading because it isn't adjusted for the massive dividend just received by all holders. I really hope people don't make TA decisions by putting silly lines on unadjusted charts like this. I mean, really!

[Leftfield]

Couta, please reconsider.

As somebody who is still learning, I enjoy reading ALL the posts here (well ... most ;)), and learning the different approaches that people take to investing. You took some time a while ago to explain to me some of the methods you use which I greatly appreciated. One of the big learnings I am taking from this forum is that there are multiple different approaches which can be utilised, and one size does not necessarily fit all.

You will be a big loss to this forum.

I'm a bit grumpy about this....

Rather than appeal to Couta to reconsider, I suspect we should be asking the Moderator to reconsider his/her actions.

In the last year we have seen good posters like Roger, Moosie, and now Couta all reprimanded and possibly lost to this forum. This is v sad as this is a great place to share ideas. IMHO we need all posters. If we as readers take offence at any individual postings, then it is a simple matter for us to choose either to ignore or to 'not to follow' certain posters.

Sssooo Mr/Ms Moderator - please let democracy on this forum run and let us forum readers choose for ourselves who to follow. Please do not choose/decide for us who we can follow.

Likewise the practice of deleting all past posts by certain people is hardly helpful. We need full transparency and access to what has been said in the past.

[swillisam]

I'm a bit grumpy about this....

Rather than appeal to Couta to reconsider, I suspect we should be asking the Moderator to reconsider his/her actions.

In the last year we have seen good posters like Roger, Moosie, and now Couta all reprimanded and possibly lost to this forum. This is v sad as this is a great place to share ideas. IMHO we need all posters. If we as readers take offence at any individual postings, then it is a simple matter for us to choose either to ignore or to 'not to follow' certain posters.

Sssooo Mr/Ms Moderator - please let democracy on this forum run and let us forum readers choose for ourselves who to follow. Please do not choose/decide for us who we can follow.

Likewise the practice of deleting all past posts by certain people is hardly helpful. We need full transparency and access to what has been said in the past.

Hear, hear. All big kids here.

Some insightful comments come on the forum, some I agree with, some I disagree with but great to see people speak their minds.

Anyway, some volume going through this morning. Potential rally for the share price mimicking the US' reaction to the the fed interest rates decision.

[blackcap]

Great post. Agree totally. I do not agree with all posters, but that does not stop me coming here. A bit of disagreement is good. I know Roger and think he is a good guy. But I disagree with him on his views on AIR. That is not a problem. Transparency is important too and posters in my opinion should be able to speak their mind to make this place vibrant and interesting.

[777]

I'm a bit grumpy about this....

Rather than appeal to Couta to reconsider, I suspect we should be asking the Moderator to reconsider his/her actions.

In the last year we have seen good posters like Roger, Moosie, and now Couta all reprimanded and possibly lost to this forum. This is v sad as this is a great place to share ideas. IMHO we need all posters. If we as readers take offence at any individual postings, then it is a simple matter for us to choose either to ignore or to 'not to follow' certain posters.

Sssooo Mr/Ms Moderator - please let democracy on this forum run and let us forum readers choose for ourselves who to follow. Please do not choose/decide for us who we can follow.

Likewise the practice of deleting all past posts by certain people is hardly helpful. We need full transparency and access to what has been said in the past.

A very good post and I hope the moderator takes note.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

I'm a bit grumpy about this....

Rather than appeal to Couta to reconsider, I suspect we should be asking the Moderator to reconsider his/her actions.

In the last year we have seen good posters like Roger, Moosie, and now Couta all reprimanded and possibly lost to this forum. This is v sad as this is a great place to share ideas. IMHO we need all posters. If we as readers take offence at any individual postings, then it is a simple matter for us to choose either to ignore or to 'not to follow' certain posters.

Sssooo Mr/Ms Moderator - please let democracy on this forum run and let us forum readers choose for ourselves who to follow. Please do not choose/decide for us who we can follow.

Likewise the practice of deleting all past posts by certain people is hardly helpful. We need full transparency and access to what has been said in the past.

Im suprised you havnt been banned and had this post deleted, lol

[Baa_Baa]

I'm sorry, but this chart (and your interpretation of it) is totally flawed/misleading because it isn't adjusted for the massive dividend just received by all holders. I really hope people don't make TA decisions by putting silly lines on unadjusted charts like this. I mean, really!

Thanks for the feedback, which is the same as you have said before, however I disagree. Your assertion fails to acknowledge that some people are only interested in the share price, for example a new buyer, a capital sensitive investor, a share trader. It is misleading to suggest that charting the capital price of a share is "totally flawed", try telling that to the millions of technical analysts that use dividend adjusted (removed) price data and charts. But I think we get it - that your preference would be for a gross price dividends included, reflecting your own investment strategy.

[OldGuy]

Thanks for the feedback, which is the same as you have said before, however I disagree. Your assertion fails to acknowledge that some people are only interested in the share price, for example a new buyer, a capital sensitive investor, a share trader. It is misleading to suggest that charting the capital price of a share is "totally flawed", try telling that to the millions of technical analysts that use dividend adjusted (removed) price data and charts. But I think we get it - that your preference would be for a gross price dividends included, reflecting your own investment strategy.

So, how do you interpret the 35c drop caused by the dividend, which shows as a massive negative red candle? The chart gives the impression of a very bad turn of events, which is clearly misleading. But yeah, you keep doing what you do. TA can certainly be useful when done properly, which your chart is not (IMHO).

[Joshuatree]

I'm sorry, but this chart (and your interpretation of it) is totally flawed/misleading because it isn't adjusted for the massive dividend just received by all holders. I really hope people don't make TA decisions by putting silly lines on unadjusted charts like this. I mean, really!

How about you put your chart up old guy and contribute ;id like to see it. I get the feeling you don't value T/A at all and are strictly F/A.?.T/A is a really important tool for helping one know when to pull the trigger to buy or to bail out of a stock to preserve ones capital. I look forward to your contribution. Its a 10 year chart which shows the cyclic nature of AIR very well. Im watching the T/A closely atp. Silly? Or not understanding?

[Baa_Baa]

So, how do you interpret the 35c drop caused by the dividend, which shows as a massive negative red candle? The chart gives the impression of a very bad turn of events, which is clearly misleading. But yeah, you keep doing what you do. TA can certainly be useful when done properly, which your chart is not (IMHO).

Happy to continue this on the TA thread http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits

[percy]

STMOD.
I think STMOD has stepped in at the right times of late to stop slanging matches.
Difficut job,but done fairly.

[OldGuy]

How about you put your chart up old guy and contribute ;id like to see it. I get the feeling you don't value T/A at all and are strictly F/A.?.T/A is a really important tool for helping one know when to pull the trigger to buy or to bail out of a stock to preserve ones capital. I look forward to your contribution. Its a 10 year chart which shows the cyclic nature of AIR very well. Im watching the T/A closely atp. Silly? Or not understanding?

well, you'd be wrong. I do value TA when done correctly, and have written and used several EAs to execute trades worth tens of thousands of dollars. Thanks.

[OldGuy]

Happy to continue this on the TA thread http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits

not a particularly compelling reply, but not unexpected either.

[BIRMANBOY]

This is a recurring problem but good to bear in mind that this is NOT our forum..its a forum that we are allowed to read and post on, at no cost, so when it gets right down to what we can or cannot post its always going to be subject to the sites owners and moderators opinions. Regardless of what we think of the decisions and whether we believe they are justified or not. I don't have a problem with that..if I don't like it, I can take a hike or simply stop reading or posting. Rather than complaining about the moderators maybe we should just accept that it is their site to do what they want with and get on with it. Or if you feel strongly enough, go somewhere else , or perhaps start your own forum. Problem is of course is that there will be the same issues just transferred to a different location. I do however feel that some clarification/simplification of the rules would reduce friction. Frustration is always the result of what people feel are "shifting goalposts". Keep it simple so everyone knows and understands what is acceptable. One rule to rule them all. NO ABUSE (of any kind), NO HIGHLIGHTING SOMEONES ELSE'S MISTAKES. (OK that's two rules) Any criticism must be depersonalized and kept as an intellectual criticism of theory and or timing. It seems to me that these are the causes of a majority of the blow-ups that have previously occurred. If these rules (or whatever rules are or were decided upon) were displayed prominently and required signing up to prior to membership, then disputes would reduce. Present members should be also asked to sign up to this. Thereby setting a base for behaviour guidelines and also providing a rationale for any disciplinary actions by moderators. However at the end we are just visitors to someone else's premises so what they decide is up to them.

[winner69]

To get back on track - the AIR share price

I get the feeling that as buyers and sellers argue amongst themselves we will see a moderate rise in the AIR share price today

[swillisam]

To get back on track - the AIR share price

I get the feeling that as buyers and sellers argue amongst themselves we will see a moderate rise in the AIR share price today

That's what I'm hoping for :P

[Joshuatree]

well, you'd be wrong. I do value TA when done correctly, and have written and used several EAs to execute trades worth tens of thousands of dollars. Thanks.
Sorry if i interpreted you incorrectly. Appreciate your sharing T/A knowledge and charts on AIR and other stocks;i am still grappling with using the T/A indicators more and my ego less in making decisions re when to buy and sell.

[OldGuy]

Sorry if i interpreted you incorrectly. Appreciate your sharing T/A knowledge and charts on AIR and other stocks;i am still grappling with using the T/A indicators more and my ego less in making decisions re when to buy and sell.

All good. My point was that Baa Baa seems a pretty keen TAer, but the chart that he posted was totally unhelpful for any type of TA. Without adjusting the SP to reflect dividend payments, TA incorrectly detects a massive drop and incorrectly interprets that as a bad sign, when the opposite is actually the case. That's why any proper TA analysis should work with adjusted prices (IMHO) :)

[Vince]

This time it's not the MODS deleting stuff, it's me! Some quite unnecessary posts that incite fighting. Lots of very good posters on this thread with good information, who keep it on topic and don't have a go at other posters and don't get dragged into others playground squabbles.

Vince

[winner69]

STMOD.
I think STMOD has stepped in at the right times of late to stop slanging matches.
Difficut job,but done fairly.

Yes percy, it is difficult job and maybe just as hard to be consistent in their moderating

Surprised that that rather offensive (iMHO) post of Birmanboys about you a few weeks ago on this thread is still there - but maybe I don't get some things and you unlike me thought it humorous ..... and then I'm not STMOD

[cdonald]

This time it's not the MODS deleting stuff, it's me! Some quite unnecessary posts that incite fighting. Lots of very good posters on this thread with good information, who keep it on topic and don't have a go at other posters and don't get dragged into others playground squabbles.

Vince

Love your work Vince

[Vince]

Yes percy, it is difficult job and maybe just as hard to be consistent in their moderating

Surprised that that rather offensive (iMHO) post of Birmanboys about you a few weeks ago on this thread is still there - but maybe I don't get some things and you unlike me thought it humorous ..... and then I'm not STMOD

Which post? I would be interested to see.

[percy]

Which post? I would be interested to see.

Vince.
Don't go looking for it.
I took as I am sure Birmanboy meant it.In fun.

[oldtech]

To get back on track - the AIR share price

I get the feeling that as buyers and sellers argue amongst themselves we will see a moderate rise in the AIR share price today

A moderate rise, at which point I jumped in moderately, so I should have known it would be followed by a moderate fall. :mad ;:

Ah well, I'm continuing to steadily drive my average price down ... let's see what we finish at.

[skid]

This is a recurring problem but good to bear in mind that this is NOT our forum..its a forum that we are allowed to read and post on, at no cost, so when it gets right down to what we can or cannot post its always going to be subject to the sites owners and moderators opinions. Regardless of what we think of the decisions and whether we believe they are justified or not. I don't have a problem with that..if I don't like it, I can take a hike or simply stop reading or posting. Rather than complaining about the moderators maybe we should just accept that it is their site to do what they want with and get on with it. Or if you feel strongly enough, go somewhere else , or perhaps start your own forum. Problem is of course is that there will be the same issues just transferred to a different location. I do however feel that some clarification/simplification of the rules would reduce friction. Frustration is always the result of what people feel are "shifting goalposts". Keep it simple so everyone knows and understands what is acceptable. One rule to rule them all. NO ABUSE (of any kind), NO HIGHLIGHTING SOMEONES ELSE'S MISTAKES. (OK that's two rules) Any criticism must be depersonalized and kept as an intellectual criticism of theory and or timing. It seems to me that these are the causes of a majority of the blow-ups that have previously occurred. If these rules (or whatever rules are or were decided upon) were displayed prominently and required signing up to prior to membership, then disputes would reduce. Present members should be also asked to sign up to this. Thereby setting a base for behaviour guidelines and also providing a rationale for any disciplinary actions by moderators. However at the end we are just visitors to someone else's premises so what they decide is up to them.

Im not so sure I agree with your second point as long as its not personal abuse----If someone borrows money or bets the farm on a share,and it blows up in their face..dont you think its a good thing to take into account? It can help with ones future investment decisions,if for no other reason than how cavalier you are going to get with your decisions.
Thats how we learn,from our (or even someone else's) mistakes(as long as we dont taint their character in the process)

[skid]

All good. My point was that Baa Baa seems a pretty keen TAer, but the chart that he posted was totally unhelpful for any type of TA. Without adjusting the SP to reflect dividend payments, TA incorrectly detects a massive drop and incorrectly interprets that as a bad sign, when the opposite is actually the case. That's why any proper TA analysis should work with adjusted prices (IMHO) :)

I believe Hoop has posted an adjusted chart on the TA thread--I was thinking like you at first but by adjusting the chart you are assuming that the divi is ''free''which is not always the case.Its a hard one because the value of the company has been reduced by the amount of the dividend so shouldnt that be reflected in the SP,but then again its not a result of mass selling-----Most of the time its far simpler to just disregard as the dividends are a much lower%

[Rep]

Im not so sure I agree with your second point as long as its not personal abuse----If someone borrows money or bets the farm on a share,and it blows up in their face..dont you think its a good thing to take into account? It can help with ones future investment decisions,if for no other reason than how cavalier you are going to get with your decisions.
Thats how we learn,from our (or even someone else's) mistakes(as long as we dont taint their character in the process)

We learn more from plane crashes than safe landings so long as there is an impartial investigation with all of the evidence - and everyone has a vested interest in avoiding another one. BTW I quite enjoyed the movie, Sully - although the characterisation of the NTSB is unfortunate but I can see why they wanted to create drama and tension.

[workingdad]

Not a good day for AIR all things considered.

I will no doubt be considered mad by some but I will be doubling down on AIR at some stage in the next wee while, its just too cheap to pass up on and when I think it is bottoming out will be throwing more money in.

Keeping an eye on monthly stats as a good indicator of how the competition is effecting them but feel comfortable that looking through the cycle they will maintain a better yield than most similar SP companies out there.

Wish me luck :)

[Baa_Baa]

Not a good day for AIR all things considered.

I will no doubt be considered mad by some but I will be doubling down on AIR at some stage in the next wee while, its just too cheap to pass up on and when I think it is bottoming out will be throwing more money in.

Keeping an eye on monthly stats as a good indicator of how the competition is effecting them but feel comfortable that looking through the cycle they will maintain a better yield than most similar SP companies out there.

Wish me luck :)

Two hours on the AIR thread and no answers, go figure! No TA would buy into this down trend, who knows how long it might go on for, or who has the resources and book profits to keep on selling at market? Maybe check out the TA thread, or some comments here about price supports. Not saying your strategy is flawed, just suggesting there are more obvious buy in opportunities if the price drifts lower depending on risk tolerance, right now it is in limbo land and a severe down trend, for new capital entry. Patience could be your friend, while at the moment the AIR price is sagging and in between any clear price support.

[Baa_Baa]

not a particularly compelling reply, but not unexpected either.

I'm not going to clog the AIR thread with off topic discussion whether TA is valid, or is not. Come over to the TA thread and show us your analysis on the dividend included chart, I'm sure you will be welcomed there. I have continued the discussion re dividend adjusted charts, or not, so feel free to join in with your thoughts and analysis.

[Ggcc]

I have never followed on dividends just tried to gain in capital. I have made errors in air when I sold at $1.70. I have alway heard never marry an airline, just date one and dump it over time. Warren buffet used to spend hours on the phone with a friend to discourage him from investing in airlines........... Well a friend told me this lol

[Marilyn Munroe]

.....Warren buffet used to spend hours on the phone with a friend to discourage him from investing in airlines....

"Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a far-sighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favour by shooting Orville down."

Warren Buffett


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[workingdad]

Two hours on the AIR thread and no answers, go figure! No TA would buy into this down trend, who knows how long it might go on for, or who has the resources and book profits to keep on selling at market? Maybe check out the TA thread, or some comments here about price supports. Not saying your strategy is flawed, just suggesting there are more obvious buy in opportunities if the price drifts lower depending on risk tolerance, right now it is in limbo land and a severe down trend, for new capital entry. Patience could be your friend, while at the moment the AIR price is sagging and in between any clear price support.

Yeah, bit quieter without Couta and Roger....

Yep, I am in no hurry to double down, I have been sitting back for over a month now waiting for the right time and will continue to wait, the weakness AIR is showing is of significance and I know some predicted it. I have held off getting more on a number of occasions but am surprised to see the SP get as low as it is, back in the red now including divvy but still think they will maintain a decent divvy yield over the next few years and playing a long game.

[IAK]

Good article by Chris Adams on the sell down of Air NZ shares by executives in April and early May. Lesson learnt. Just returned from a conference in Spain, didn't fly Air NZ.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11713888

[see weed]

[QUOTE=IAK;637932]Good article by Chris Adams on the sell down of Air NZ shares by executives in April and early May. Lesson learnt. Just returned from a conference in Spain, didn't fly Air NZ.
So when do you think they will start to buy back in? Maybe 1.85? I'm still in the green $7,330 including divs. and have already started buying in using my plan B action. My theory is when the div chasers have got their divs out of all the other div payers lately, then they will start piling back into AIR with 11%+ yld. Also AIR agm on the 30/9/16, might be a little gain before then.

[Mickey]

Good article by Chris Adams on the sell down of Air NZ shares by executives in April and early May. Lesson learnt. Just returned from a conference in Spain, didn't fly Air NZ.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11713888
Great article thanks IAK. 2 shares from my portfolio AIR & NZR are in the worst 3 performers :( Just as well I've diversified but it still doesn't look very pretty on my dashboard..... I think I'll continue to diversify into other stocks rather than average down on these 2 as they'll no doubt continue to pay divvies and being cyclical stocks - they should come back at some point (he says hopefully).

[macduffy]

[QUOTE=IAK;637932]Good article by Chris Adams on the sell down of Air NZ shares by executives in April and early May. Lesson learnt. Just returned from a conference in Spain, didn't fly Air NZ.
So when do you think they will start to buy back in? Maybe 1.85? I'm still in the green $7,330 including divs. and have already started buying in using my plan B action. My theory is when the div chasers have got their divs out of all the other div payers lately, then they will start piling back into AIR with 11%+ yld. Also AIR agm on the 30/9/16, might be a little gain before then.

Or maybe they'll just wait for a few more Performance Shares to accrue?

;)

[fish]

Whatever they do you can be sure it will be for the benefit of the directors and not the shareholders.
Does anyone want to make a proposal at the next agm that all bonus shares allocated must be held for 10 years before they can be sold?

[Jay]

My opinion to a degree as well - sw, they seem pretty confident that level of dividend can be maintained, you would think that an 11% return would not stay around long for a company such as AIR, yes it is an airline but 11% - seems to high a return for the risk - given 51% owned by NZ Govt. Therefore as I have said before one must change either the return (sp increase or the dividend reduced)

[blackcap]

My opinion to a degree as well - sw, they seem pretty confident that level of dividend can be maintained,

The thing is though, how long can it be maintained for? 2 years, 3 years? 5 years? Then what? What if they make a loss after 2 years.... I guess its all these variables that drive the share price. I would not be buying just because management is saying a dividend is sustainable. Did TEL now SPK, not pay about 4 divs of 10 cents imputed at one stage.... when the SP was $9. Buying just for high div yield can be good but it does come with its risks.
That said, I normally try and invest in companies that have good dividend paying prospects but also those that I can see appreciate through organic growth in future....

[workingdad]

If todays volumes are anything to go buy it doesn't appear sellers are rushing for the door, Friday afternoons can be telling for AIR so be interesting to see how it goes before close.

Its only one day but the volume is a lot lower than it has been and perhaps the sell off is starting to run out of steam.

I'm not rushing back in so wont be jumping on it today but I am looking closely for an opportune moment when things have settled.

I think they can maintain a decent profit and divvy looking longer term, NZ is just too immigrant based and tourism boom that I don't see changing without some sort of global event, even with the dollar so high we have them coming here in the droves.

[sb9]

If todays volumes are anything to go buy it doesn't appear sellers are rushing for the door, Friday afternoons can be telling for AIR so be interesting to see how it goes before close.

Its only one day but the volume is a lot lower than it has been and perhaps the sell off is starting to run out of steam.

I'm not rushing back in so wont be jumping on it today but I am looking closely for an opportune moment when things have settled.

I think they can maintain a decent profit and divvy looking longer term, NZ is just too immigrant based and tourism boom that I don't see changing without some sort of global event, even with the dollar so high we have them coming here in the droves.

Looks like its race to bottom who gets first, sellers keep popping with lower offers...

[workingdad]

Looks like its race to bottom who gets first, sellers keep popping with lower offers...

I am mixed, the lower it goes the cheaper I get to buy more but now the ones I have are in the red its an episode in frustration.

[sb9]

I am mixed, the lower it goes the cheaper I get to buy more but now the ones I have are in the red its an episode in frustration.

Yes yes classic catch 22 situation, isn't it...I for one content with what I've and will leave it there for a while. For me the next key catalyst is the ASM end of this month.

[workingdad]

Yes yes classic catch 22 situation, isn't it...I for one content with what I've and will leave it there for a while. For me the next key catalyst is the ASM end of this month.

Yep, looking forward to an update myself, I have a bit of room for more, after catching the knife a few times on the way down my confidence in the SP holding wasn't exactly without concern so when I was buying and selling heavily in the few weeks leading up to EOY I ended up clawing a fair chuck back and left myself with about a third of what I used to have. Did well out of AIR a few times when it was flirting with $3 so all in all not in a bad way with them but I did change strategy to hold some for a few years looking forward, mostly on faith in management to execute a good response to competition and thoughts on oil prices staying subdued for a while to come.

[Biscuit]

Yes yes classic catch 22 situation, isn't it...I for one content with what I've and will leave it there for a while. For me the next key catalyst is the ASM end of this month.

Catch 22: You can leave the army if you are mad, but if you want to leave the army you can't be mad. Something like that wasn't it. Good book. Does it apply here though?

[Bobdn]

Air NZ is a drag but ANZ and BHP have just hit six monthly highs and WHS has delivered a great. There's usually something positive happening elsewhere in my portfolio to perk me up.

I reinvested my AIR dividend in Chorus.

[Snow Leopard]

In the rush for the emergency exits back in May the share price got down to $2.02.

Subtract the $0.35 of dividends in your bank account and add back in $0.11 of profits since that day and you would get:

$1.78

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Antipodean]

Catch 22: You can leave the army if you are mad, but if you want to leave the army you can't be mad. Something like that wasn't it. Good book. Does it apply here though?
Close. You can be grounded (and not have to fly air missions) if you are crazy, but you also have to ask to be grounded. If you ask to be grounded, you demonstrate you are rational enough to care about your safety then you cannot be said to be crazy.

It's the best catch there is.

[Got in Pre div and holding]

[bull....]

1.74 im thinking adjusted div lows