AIR - Air NZ.

[macduffy]

I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!

[Biscuit]

Close. You can be grounded (and not have to fly air missions) if you are crazy, but you also have to ask to be grounded. If you ask to be grounded, you demonstrate you are rational enough to care about your safety then you cannot be said to be crazy.

Yes, that was it. Must re-read that book, I mis-remembered it being about Vietnam war, but was actually set in 2nd world war according to wiki. I guess it is relevant to AIR as is about flying?

[mondograss]

People often think that about Catch-22 as, being anti-war, it's a sentiment not often associated with WWII. It's also regularly confused as the inspiration for M*A*S*H as they were both released in movie form about the same time, but in fact M*A*S*H was based on a different book.

[see weed]

If I was the CEO, then would of paid 10c div as usual, then on ex div date announced a special div of 10c to be paid out in December in time for Christmas. And paid out the rest over the next 6 or 12 months at different times plus the normal div. and the sp would probably still be over $2. Simple aye, and I'm just the shoe shine boy. And on that note, bought more at $1.82:eek2:.

[Joshuatree]

I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!

On to it mac; newbies take note ; don't buy in a down trend.; really simple ,except greed and egos and lil devils on ones shoulder saying "go on give us a thrill" buybuybuy"; also after a % drop it has to go up more to get back to where it was % wise. Wait for the bend at the end of the trend and don't try and pick bottoms, see T/a threads

[Antipodean]

Yes, that was it. Must re-read that book, I mis-remembered it being about Vietnam war, but was actually set in 2nd world war according to wiki. I guess it is relevant to AIR as is about flying?

WWII air bombardiers. There was some troubled times for a bit in the middle but in the end works out okay. Nice story to parallel AIR we hope?

[777]

Is it me or is the AirNZ website not functioning properly. Trying to book a trip to HoChiMin City (vietnam) in July and its telling me I have to go via Singapore or HK. I thought they flew direct from June to October? Might have to give them a call and see what the problem is.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/84592160/air-new-zealand-auckland-to-vietnam-route-to-get-the-7879-dreamliner

[Yoda]

On to it mac; newbies take note ; don't buy in a down trend.; really simple ,except greed and egos and lil devils on ones shoulder saying "go on give us a thrill" buybuybuy"; also after a % drop it has to go up more to get back to where it was % wise. Wait for the bend at the end of the trend and don't try and pick bottoms, see T/a threads
Exactly what Gordon Gekko said at the end of the movie...... Ahh, cant remember the name. Good old movie though.

[winner69]

That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.

i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bonkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.

First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - qite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.

[winner69]

That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is now giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.

i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bunkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.

First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. One comment back then was it couldn't possibly fall to 250. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - quite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.

[winner69]

Why $3 will never be a sustainable price for AIR

Insight 1: The top 10 or so shareholders are the ones who influence medium to long term price movements. Traders create the short term noise - the day to day ups and downs.

Insight 2: In the NBR article somebody posted last week it mentioned one analyst who pointed out that airlines are a volatile industry where share price appreciation was relatively rare - and suggesting you couldn't begrudge anybody (including management) selling out when the price appears to be at a cyclical high. Those that do so have an appreciation of how cyclical stocks (esp airlines) behave

Insight 3: While walking around Lake Hayes the other day had a chat with a retired fund manager. He made the point that when the government sold a lot at $1.65 the price was probably a bit on the light side but not by much. He went on to say that Air NZ future strategy and plans were well known at that time and these were implicitly priced in to the $1.65 they got. All thats changed since is cheaper fuel which has lead to more competition but net net positive for Air NZ, but not a long term positive meaning that about $1.80 to $2.00 is about the 'right price' today.
He knew of some funds/instos who bought at the $1.65 and have cashed in at the high recent prices. His sage advice was 'winner, airline stocks can be very rewarding but only buy at the bottom of the inevitable cycle and never never buy near the top' (short term trading doesn't count)

So 1 and 2 and 3 together says that AIr NZ share price is heading down to a cyclical low over the next year or so but short term 'traders' will create some dips and spikes upward (we may even see $3 again). It does seem that airline stocks are a different beast than other stocks and medium to long term the price is driven by the sentiment of the larger shareholders (government excluded)

I only been interested in airline stocks recently after ignoring them for decades. I now see why not a good long term investment .....but heck you can have fun doing short term trading (unless caught out holding the day the plane crashes)77

Always interesting to look back on past posts (this one from May).....even if only to remind oneself that AIR is only good for trading .......seeing dividend stripping is a bit dodgy

[BlackPeter]

And while we are looking into past posts:

4-Aug-16:


...
Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.

Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...

Discl: not holding;

obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!

4-Aug-16

BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.

Looks like my crystal ball was spot on :t_up:

More interesting question is - what can we learn from the hyped up threads on ST - may this be DIL (at some stage), PEB (at some stage), or more recently AIR?

1) Nobody is always right, no matter what their reputation (and yes, this does include myself)

2) Its easy to recognise hyped up threads ... that's the threads where a handful of posters (often overexposed to the particular stock) keep repeating the same hype over and over again. In addition to that do they start to put negative attributes on posters who dare to have a different (less hyped up) view of their beloved stock. I am referring to attributes like "nay-sayers", "scaremongerers", "haters". While it is unpleasant to be called this way ... these attributes are useful "red flags" for every investor. If you see them repeatedly used in a thread it is normally a great idea to avoid the respective stock.

... and back to AIR:

3) "cyclical means cyclical" (thanks Theresa;)): If you have a cyclical stock for which all stars aligned in a particular year and where the share price did rise well above any prior peak ... than it is quite likely that it will go down from here. If it is already in a confirmed downtrend (nice head and shoulders) and the fundamentals point to increasing competition and dwindling margins, than it is unreasonable to assume that paying out a huge dividend (which in parts was just a capital return based on a loss making deal and is in anyone's books just a big cash outflow anyway) is going to pop up the share price after going X-dividend.

4) Ah - yes ... it is a quite common folly to buy stocks based on dividend promises. While we don't know yet, whether AIR will be in a position to keep its promise (and for how long) of a minimum dividend of 20 cents p.a., the markets seem to be doubtful, and I think they have a point. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) has a clue how the aviation market looks like in 6 or 12 months from now. How much worth is a promise which can only be kept if the market treats AIR nicely? Which means ... yes, if they keep their promise, than AIR will provide a great investment income. The question is just ... how likely is it that they will be able to keep their promise?

Just to clarify ... I think that AIR is one of the better airlines (though in my view not the best, whatever this means). I expect them to stay around (and I can't say the same about all their competitors), unless they keep repeating their past mistakes ... but two times burnt should be enough - shouldn't it?

I could well imagine to buy at some stage back in again, but not yet. The thing with market cycles is ... you normally need to see blood on the floor before things start to improve again. I expect margins in the aviation industry to keep dropping for some time - and this only will stop if some carriers can't stand the pressure anymore. Only when carriers start to drop out of the market do the survivors have a chance to increase margins and profitability again ...

DYOR.

[Joshuatree]

Maybe a Thread for "Trading Stock's ", only would be good and transparent and informing for all?. But then with the NZX such a small market with frequent liquidity probs with many stocks that may defeat the purpose of trading. Not of course in the larger frequently traded stocks like AIR but it would provide clarity re where folks are coming from and leave no questions of possible agendas or motives. If there is any int someone could start a trading thread for NZ stocks and one for ASX stocks.

Over 300 threads on AIR arguably the most discussed stock on here so are many of the posts from traders, short term investors? Then another question arises.Is long term investing now redundant on all but a few stocks?

[BlackPeter]

Maybe a Thread for "Trading Stock's ", only would be good and transparent and informing for all?. But then with the NZX such a small market with frequent liquidity probs with many stocks that may defeat the purpose of trading. Not of course in the larger frequently traded stocks like AIR but it would provide clarity re where folks are coming from and leave no questions of possible agendas or motives. If there is any int someone could start a trading thread for NZ stocks and one for ASX stocks.

Over 300 threads on AIR arguably the most discussed stock on here so are many of the posts from traders, short term investors? Then another question arises.Is long term investing now redundant on all but a few stocks?

Not sure I understand what you are asking for? Traders and investors talk about the same thing, they just have different time horizons. However - no matter whether you are a trader or an investor ... it is always beneficial to buy cheap and to sell dear.

Or do you mean that hype should be limited to traders-only threads with investor-only threads being used to have the serious conversations? I think this would miss the point of creating the hype in the first place. Sure - there might be some inexperienced traders who are just "whistling in the dark", but I think most of the more experienced traders just want to influence their audience to push the SP up ... for obvious reasons. What would be the point if only other traders would read this stuff?

[Snow Leopard]

Taking the 3 'local' airline stocks and comparing their current share price to consensus analyst value from 4-traders and we have:

AIR: $2.20; $1.82; 17.3% discount.

QAN: $4.07; $3.23; 20.6% discount*

VAH: $0.29; $0.24; 17.3% discount

*I have taken the liberty of chucking out a $8 valuation for QAN - otherwise $4.35.

So maybe this is where the AIR share price should be..

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

And while we are looking into past posts:

4-Aug-16:


4-Aug-16


Looks like my crystal ball was spot on :t_up:

More interesting question is - what can we learn from the hyped up threads on ST - may this be DIL (at some stage), PEB (at some stage), or more recently AIR?

1) Nobody is always right, no matter what their reputation (and yes, this does include myself)

2) Its easy to recognise hyped up threads ... that's the threads where a handful of posters (often overexposed to the particular stock) keep repeating the same hype over and over again. In addition to that do they start to put negative attributes on posters who dare to have a different (less hyped up) view of their beloved stock. I am referring to attributes like "nay-sayers", "scaremongerers", "haters". While it is unpleasant to be called this way ... these attributes are useful "red flags" for every investor. If you see them repeatedly used in a thread it is normally a great idea to avoid the respective stock.

... and back to AIR:

3) "cyclical means cyclical" (thanks Theresa;)): If you have a cyclical stock for which all stars aligned in a particular year and where the share price did rise well above any prior peak ... than it is quite likely that it will go down from here. If it is already in a confirmed downtrend (nice head and shoulders) and the fundamentals point to increasing competition and dwindling margins, than it is unreasonable to assume that paying out a huge dividend (which in parts was just a capital return based on a loss making deal and is in anyone's books just a big cash outflow anyway) is going to pop up the share price after going X-dividend.

4) Ah - yes ... it is a quite common folly to buy stocks based on dividend promises. While we don't know yet, whether AIR will be in a position to keep its promise (and for how long) of a minimum dividend of 20 cents p.a., the markets seem to be doubtful, and I think they have a point. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) has a clue how the aviation market looks like in 6 or 12 months from now. How much worth is a promise which can only be kept if the market treats AIR nicely? Which means ... yes, if they keep their promise, than AIR will provide a great investment income. The question is just ... how likely is it that they will be able to keep their promise?

Just to clarify ... I think that AIR is one of the better airlines (though in my view not the best, whatever this means). I expect them to stay around (and I can't say the same about all their competitors), unless they keep repeating their past mistakes ... but two times burnt should be enough - shouldn't it?

I could well imagine to buy at some stage back in again, but not yet. The thing with market cycles is ... you normally need to see blood on the floor before things start to improve again. I expect margins in the aviation industry to keep dropping for some time - and this only will stop if some carriers can't stand the pressure anymore. Only when carriers start to drop out of the market do the survivors have a chance to increase margins and profitability again ...

DYOR.....good thoughts to pounder.. BP

I found it interesting ,if not relevant,that the downward slide for both PEB and AIR came after the Management sold a fair amount of shares. Im certainly not saying its, in any form ,the only reason,but just one more thing to put in the over shoulder computer.
All three companies certainly had their day as the flavor of the year on ST--(which I guess means emotional attachment)
I certainly learned alot from the DIL thread,way back then (when Moosey went out for his long walk after repeated warnings about the share from TA folks)--the beauty of these threads is that you can go back and read the entire thing and learn (unless some delete all their posts,which is a shame (to put it diplomatically) Hell,we all have egos...Sages sit and meditate for years to try to get that unbridled beast under control and appear to be happier for it.
Of course AIR will continue to run as a functional company--It appears to be more a matter of relativity.(with a dose of investor sentiment) We all know how easy it is to get that sentiment wrong...Thats between us and the market.
The amount we invest in one share is probably more between us and ourselves.

Aint nothin wrong with taking a ST break--sometimes just mowing the lawn or doing something like a days work that gets me outside my head helps heaps for me. (like Moosies walk,regardles of what he decided in the end)

But there shouldnt be anything standing in the way of coming back either...no body OWNS the fall in the SP..out of us,anyway....we're just a bunch of average Joes (or Janes)trying to think our way through the maize--hopefully we learn in the process.

[Snow Leopard]

Across the cycle sort of thing, so one can discuss short-term variations.

In order to maintain a $0.20 pa dividend and otherwise stay still, then AIR need to average minimum after tax profits of about $290M [$400M npbt] +inflation increments per annum.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: No AIR, much FUR.

[BlackPeter]

Across the cycle sort of thing, so one can discuss short-term variations.

In order to maintain a $0.20 pa dividend and otherwise stay still, then AIR need to average minimum after tax profits of about $290M [$400M npbt] +inflation increments per annum.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: No AIR, much FUR.

... which would be equivalent to an EPS of 26 cents ...

Quite challenging goal considering that their average EPS over the last 7 years (that's how far back my spreadsheet happens to go) was only 19 cents pa.

This time it will be different?

Discl: No AIR, no FUR ;);

[winner69]

Airlines are proving once again that they are in a commodities business - same product, same input costs, same planes and little differentiation.

The cheap fuel of late has lead to increased capacity, probably beyond demand.

Put all this together the intense competition results in tumbling airfares.t

I reckon boom profits this year for the likes of AIR (maybe a bit lower than forecast) but then heading back to where airlines usually are - not that profitable

AIR at $3 today - maybe as high as it will go

Hoop possibly is right in saying airlines are notoriously cyclical - mostly of their own making

Is now the top of this current cycle?

From last April

Hoop posted a lot about cyclicals back then - all good stuff it was

Airline industry is probably 'more cyclical' than others - brought on by their own behaviour as outlined above.

For once i will say 'this time is NOT different'

[Valuegrowth]

Yes Air lines are cyclical. Still some cyclical stocks should have demand as they have more legs in their cycles.

Reasonably positive outlook is expected in North American Airlines in 2017 as well and they can have the strongest price positioning. Lower oil and gas prices could reduce travel volume in countries such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa. There is a prediction about a strong hotel market in the UK in 2017. Latin American and Carrabin region also should see lower travel rates.

Asia Pacific region is looking at moderate growth in airfares and hotels in 2017. I believe Air NZ should be able to maintain sufficient passenger revenues to cover operating costs and generate profits. Selected Airlines, hotels and restaurants stocks in the USA and Asia Pacific region should outperform others in 2016/17. In addition, lower fuel prices should benefit both airlines and hotels.

Why not AIR NZ one of the safest Airlines in the world?

https://skift.com/2016/09/14/report-cheap-airfare-will-power-corporate-travel-growth-in-2017/

Cheap Airfare Will Power Corporate Travel Growth in 2017 Says Report

[Raz]

It's amusing that all the pessimists are out with a touch of glee currently while the cheerleaders are silent...people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect. While there is tourism growth, limited domestic competition, domestic fares will hold up underlying earnings for the dividend and currently like hotel tariffs, we will all pay more that. That is a different issue to share price and capital preservation, been out for a while and wonder what all the fuss is about.

[Snow Leopard]

Certainly a bit weird when I seem to be the thread optimist.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[bull....]

Certainly a bit weird when I seem to be the thread optimist.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share

[King1212]

Remember HBL when it went down to 1.09.people thought it was the end of the world...so many critics...now look at HBL....it does the same with AIR....

[see weed]

lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share
I like bush walks. Have walked lots of Waitakere rangers walks.But getting back to AIR. This reminds me of last time when I started buying in.....2011-2012. Bought 17 blocks of AIR from $1.13down to .845c. The diff. is we are $1 higher than that now, so you have to work out how much better off AIR is now than what it was then. one diff. is back then it was paying 5.5c div. and now it is paying 20c div. not to mention new planes etc. If it's a $1 better off then we could be near the new bottom now. But what do I know, I'm just the boot polisher. But am still working through my plan B and will begin plan C in the near future. Now for a walk in the rain.

[winner69]

It's amusing that all the pessimists are out with a touch of glee currently while the cheerleaders are silent...people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect. While there is tourism growth, limited domestic competition, domestic fares will hold up underlying earnings for the dividend and currently like hotel tariffs, we will all pay more that. That is a different issue to share price and capital preservation, been out for a while and wonder what all the fuss is about.

Yes indeed as you said Raz - people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect

Especially with cyclicals such as airlines - company fundamentals mean squat all with these type of stocks, AIR's share price is following what some see as typical cyclical behaviour

AIR is a brilliant company, it's leader may even have a glowing halo. AIR made $800m last year and will make over $500m this year and probably much the same the year after - and pay at least 20 cents dividend.

But that dividend may not always be reflected in the share price

[BlackPeter]

Remember HBL when it went down to 1.09.people thought it was the end of the world...so many critics...now look at HBL....it does the same with AIR....

No question about that ... this is exactly what cyclical stocks are about. They go up and down and up and down again. I don't think anybody suggested that the current downtrend is the end of the world for AIR - it was more about whether it is wise to hold (or accumulate) a cyclical stock in the early (or medium) phases of a downtrend. Obviously - we might disagree on whether this is the start or already the end of the downtrend, but picking bottoms is something wiser people than me are getting wrong, so I better not attempt this discipline ...

So yes, everybody relax ... AIR is highly likely to go up again at some stage. The question is just when, and ... when it does ... wouldn't it have made more sense to own the same AIR shares bought cheap instead of still holding them purchased dear?

Shares are a bit like seats in a plane. You can pay lots for an AIR flight from CHC to AKL, or you can pay less for the same seat in the same plane on the same flight (if you get the timing right). Both seats will get you at the same time and with the same comfort (or lack thereof) to your destination. I personally prefer to buy them when they are on special (and - back to shares enjoy the same dividend than the people who paid lots), but this is just me.

[skid]

I like bush walks. Have walked lots of Waitakere rangers walks.But getting back to AIR. This reminds me of last time when I started buying in.....2011-2012. Bought 17 blocks of AIR from $1.13down to .845c. The diff. is we are $1 higher than that now, so you have to work out how much better off AIR is now than what it was then. one diff. is back then it was paying 5.5c div. and now it is paying 20c div. not to mention new planes etc. If it's a $1 better off then we could be near the new bottom now. But what do I know, I'm just the boot polisher. But am still working through my plan B and will begin plan C in the near future. Now for a walk in the rain.

I think the jury may be still out on whether you can factor in the dividend as a reason to buy.I think from what we have seen so far is that the concept of ''free money'' is not one that can be assumed, as the dividend does affect the company's value(more on the TA thread)

I have my own pet theory that ,until the next results from AIR,the market is still in the ''post dividend'' frame of mind---buyers may want to buy the share-but not pay for what is sitting in the sellers bank----seller wants to sell -and keep what is in his bank---in between is the SP---the AIR results may change the atmosphere according to what they are(provided the ''post dividend'' market has not gathered enough momentum to become a factor in itself)------of course,as always,outside markets remain a wild card.

[BlackPeter]

Yes indeed as you said Raz - people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect

Especially with cyclicals such as airlines - company fundamentals mean squat all with these type of stocks, AIR's share price is following what some see as typical cyclical behaviour

AIR is a brilliant company, it's leader may even have a glowing halo. AIR made $800m last year and will make over $500m this year and probably much the same the year after - and pay at least 20 cents dividend.

But that dividend may not always be reflected in the share price

I still don't get it why anybody could think the 20 cent dividend in perpetuity is a given? It is a promise by woefully overpaid executives who sold down their own shares. This gives you an idea how much they think their promises are worth. So yes - AIR may or may not pay for the years to come 20 cents dividend.

How likely do you think it is they can keep their promises with rapidly diminishing margins in the airline industry? 50%? 20% NIL? As soon as you accept it is not 100% (and nothing in life is but death and taxes) it is easy to see how much (or how little) the market trusts in the promises.

FY 2017 ... they say they make 500m ... and given that we are well into the period, lets assume the promised divvie is (sort of) safe. Obviously - we still can have another 9/11 somewhere on this globe or another Saars outbreak, or Trump might win the US election ...

What about FY 2018? Competition is still increasing, margins dropping and oil might not stay low forever. Can they still pay the divvie?

What about 2019? Tourism won't boom forever, oil might be dear and president Trump together with his old friends Vladimir Putin and the dear leader of North Korea are shooting down all alien planes over their (rapidly increasing) territory, using US generals as projectiles (just an example, lets not get into that ...). Is AIR still able to pay the divvie?

No matter what happens, it is quite safe to assume that they won't be able to pay a 20 cent divvie in perpetuity. Mr and Mrs Market seem to agree.

[winner69]

Hi Black Peter

I take it from your recent posts you are not going to buy any AIR shares in the foreseeable future

[BlackPeter]

Hi Black Peter

I take it from your recent posts you are not going to buy any AIR shares in the foreseeable future

I don't intend to buy any AIR shares NOW. Not sure about your term "foreseeable future" - as far as I am concerned no mortal being can foresee it ;) - and we might leave the discussion about the non mortals for some other thread.

However - what I can predict is that I won't buy any AIR shares as long as the confirmed downtrend is intact. If & when the downtrend breaks (no matter whether this is next month, next year or later) am I likely to review the fundamentals at that stage and will make a buy / not buy decision based on fundamentals I can't foresee (sic) at this stage.

Does this help?

[winner69]

I don't intend to buy any AIR shares NOW. Not sure about your term "foreseeable future" - as far as I am concerned no mortal being can foresee it ;) - and we might leave the discussion about the non mortals for some other thread.

However - what I can predict is that I won't buy any AIR shares as long as the confirmed downtrend is intact. If & when the downtrend breaks (no matter whether this is next month, next year or later) am I likely to review the fundamentals at that stage and will make a buy / not buy decision based on fundamentals I can't foresee (sic) at this stage.

Does this help?

Yep, i know prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ....so goodness what you will be doing in the future

[Vaygor1]

I will know tomorrow why the things I predicted yesterday didn't happen today.






(Not original - adapted from elsewhere)

[Snow Leopard]

Just remember I do not think buying airline shares is a good idea - OK?

Let me be pessimistic and assume that for FY2017 AIR earns $0.314 ps and for each year after that there profit is 80% of the prior years, so

FY2017 $0.314
FY2018 $0.251
FY2019 $0.201
FY2020 $0.161
FY2021 $0.129
FY2022 $0.103
FY2023 $0.082
FY2024 $0.066
FY2025 $0.053
FY2026 $0.042

pretty dire prediction - that would be most peoples hope.

Now you need two things to pay a fully imputed dividend:
1/ Cash (ie cash flow)
2/ Imputation Credits

So pull a few numbers out of the FY2016 financial statements and investor presentation and assume that they do not spend much on new planes over that time frame (which is a reasonable assumption but they will need to looking at 777 replacements before the end).

Now I could have this wrong but I believe they could pay a flat $0.20 in annual dividends for each and every year up to and including FY2025.

It would not be sensible to do so if that profit curve or similar proved true, but it does illustrate that they do have some flexibility to weather some bad times.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: still not buying AIR or similar.

[BlackPeter]

Nice scenario PT, and while I don't think it is pessimistic, it is obviously highly unrealistic.

Airlines earnings historically seem to move roughly in 7 year cycles - though often overlaid by other effects (like economical crisis, volcano eruptions, losing planes for various reasons, epidemics, political crisis, fuel price hikes, acts of terrorism).

As well ... during the peak times every Tom, Dick and Harry tend to found a new airline to join into the money making business. OK - maybe not every, but too many. Virgin and Richard Branson spring to mind as well as Origin Pacific (founded by Robert Inglis, so admittedly no Tom or Harry), but there are many more. Add to that financially strong competitors happy to add the odd flight to New Zealand as well as airlines trying new routes (South America this time?), and what happens every time is that in good earning phases everybody tries to get a big slice of the cake.

Result: margins are rapidly squeezed given that there are only so many bums around but only full planes make money.

Which means ... in my view is the 500m profit before tax estimated for this year already optimistic (but possible, if everything goes according to plan), but the competition will heat up for the 2017 holiday season. I doubt, whether this means just a further 10% drop in earnings (as analysts seem to assume). Margins squeeze in the airline industry looked less friendly in the past.

How do your data look if you assume for 2017 the 500m (I am an optimist ...), for 2018 half of that - and for 2019 again only half of 2018)?

After that (assuming a 7 year cycle) things might move up again.

BTW - just made another interesting observation ... even the professional optimists (analyst consensus at 4 traders) predict for 2018 and 2019 that the AIR dividend will be below 20 cents. They seem to think that 2018 will be the low point, though. Not saying that I trust their consensus, but it is unusual that they are pessimistic related to popular stocks ...

[workingdad]

lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share

Man up? Umm not sure what you want. I'm just tired of some of the discussion on AIR of late. Seems to be some that revel at others expense and dialogue of a nature I don't have much interest in.

That aside.

Having tried to catch the knife a few times and having bought and sold at as many good times as bad of late I am only just in the red including the divvy but not including imp credit. Best was at 2.02, 2.07 and 2.11 during Brexit but factor in carrying some losses from earlier buys on the way down and then clawing a fair bit back being smarter in some of the dips and recoveries I'm not sitting too bad at all. Also holding a third of my total at one stage which I'm comfortable with.

We all take our chances on trading and no one can see the future. All of us are human (some more so than others) and no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree 😜

I'm keeping an eye on AIR, still have my own opinion of its ability to make good on divvys going forward barring an event some allure to which most stocks are not immune from think the FA is attractive compared to other similarly priced stocks.

[winner69]

Huxley posted this link on the kathmandu thread
http://theregister.co.nz/features/ex...an-do-about-it

He thought the trends be good for Kathmandu - but if 'experiences' like travel are where consumers are spending these days then all good for the likes of AIR

Lions tour next year - what an experience that will be for thousands of Brits coming to NZ. Lions tour impact was one of the highlights of the AIR result in 2005

[ohpark0119]

Quote of the year: "no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree"

[iceman]

Sold my AIR back in March at $2.87 and entered an order to be notified when SP trades at or below $1.80. Received that email today, much earlier than expected back then. Back on the watchlist now but still in a serious downtrend with no end in sight

[ohpark0119]

pre-div low was @$2 so guess it will fall down to $1.65 as it's the support line. plz correct if wrong.

[skid]

Man up? Umm not sure what you want. I'm just tired of some of the discussion on AIR of late. Seems to be some that revel at others expense and dialogue of a nature I don't have much interest in.

That aside.

Having tried to catch the knife a few times and having bought and sold at as many good times as bad of late I am only just in the red including the divvy but not including imp credit. Best was at 2.02, 2.07 and 2.11 during Brexit but factor in carrying some losses from earlier buys on the way down and then clawing a fair bit back being smarter in some of the dips and recoveries I'm not sitting too bad at all. Also holding a third of my total at one stage which I'm comfortable with.

We all take our chances on trading and no one can see the future. All of us are human (some more so than others) and no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree ��

I'm keeping an eye on AIR, still have my own opinion of its ability to make good on divvys going forward barring an event some allure to which most stocks are not immune from think the FA is attractive compared to other similarly priced stocks.

WD--You seemed to have taken the middle road that satisfies both sides of the debate --You havent panic sold--and you have resisted the temptation to throw tons of money at a share when its going down (atm)--I tip my hat to you--(or perhaps it is your wife who should get the credit:)..)

[see weed]

AIR has dropped about 33% give or take whatever in the last 2 weeks. Does anyone know what % drop it takes to trigger an FMA call out. ps got a pm from couta1 to tell me to tell bull to read thread 8936 and he still hold 50% of portfolio of AIR= 420k. Hope I got that right couta1. You could start up under another name if that was possible.

[Joshuatree]

Black Peter "Not sure I understand what you are asking for? Traders and investors talk about the same thing, they just have different time horizons. However - no matter whether you are a trader or an investor ... it is always beneficial to buy cheap and to sell dear.

Or do you mean that hype should be limited to traders-only threads with investor-only threads being used to have the serious conversations? I think this would miss the point of creating the hype in the first place. Sure - there might be some inexperienced traders who are just "whistling in the dark", but I think most of the more experienced traders just want to influence their audience to push the SP up ... for obvious reasons. What would be the point if only other traders would read this stuff"


Conflicts of interest happen between short term traders and longer term Investors; different agendas time frames values etc; one pays tax the other doesn't or way less. its a disconnect like two different discussions going on at once with different endgames. With short term trading comes a lot more spin/ spruiking/ salesmanship etc; its the nature of their game and its to benefit them only..Spruiking and then selling while others are encouraged to buy (and vice versa)is normal practice and benefits the short term spruikers only.Newbies/naivebies can get sucked in.

Investors however tend to all benefit from the longer term sharing of analysis, T/A,knowledge and less agenda pressure(buy when I'm selling).This is the share trader community I'm here to participate, enjoy and value the most. Traders and investors are both a part of the Stock Exchange ops. A trading thread can specialise in in short term trading strategies or even day trading (more on the ASX) and spruik, up ramp, down ramp, spin their hearts out as its accepted practice. I note two trading threads on another site. A great outlet and far less conflict; but maybe I've got my idealist hat on and that the smell of money can overpower ethics and morals which may be one of the reasons a few folks on the AIR thread have been binned over and over? IF a trading thread caused less conflict and friction , less bans,I'm all for it. Just putting the idea out there.

[ohpark0119]

Not too sure but dnt they call out if there's a significant change over a short period? For example, if price dropped by 10% in a day but no announcement? For AIR, it was like 3% a day (added) over two weeks lol. Maybe they are too busy working on Milford

[BlackPeter]

Conflicts of interest happen between short term traders and longer term Investors; different agendas time frames values etc; one pays tax the other doesn't or way less. its a disconnect like two different discussions going on at once with different endgames. With short term trading comes a lot more spin/ spruiking/ salesmanship etc; its the nature of their game and its to benefit them only..Spruiking and then selling while others are encouraged to buy (and vice versa)is normal practice and benefits the short term spruikers only.Newbies/naivebies can get sucked in.

Investors however tend to all benefit from the longer term sharing of analysis, T/A,knowledge and less agenda pressure(buy when I'm selling).This is the share trader community I'm here to participate, enjoy and value the most. Traders and investors are both a part of the Stock Exchange ops. A trading thread can specialise in in short term trading strategies or even day trading (more on the ASX) and spruik, up ramp, down ramp, spin their hearts out as its accepted practice. I note two trading threads on another site. A great outlet and far less conflict; but maybe I've got my idealist hat on and that the smell of money can overpower ethics and morals which may be one of the reasons a few folks on the AIR thread have been binned over and over? IF a trading thread caused less conflict and friction , less bans,I'm all for it. Just putting the idea out there.

JT ... if you feel like quoting me, could you please do that without editing my "quote"? I don't know why you mixed up my citation, but it does not look good. Please fix or delete.

[see weed]

I notice buyers starting to come back. Don't forget AGM this Friday.Get in now at these lower prices before all the positive news on Friday. The quick and the dead here:D. Come on couta and Roger time to av down.

[see weed]

Not too sure but dnt they call out if there's a significant change over a short period? For example, if price dropped by 10% in a day but no announcement? For AIR, it was like 3% over two weeks lol. Maybe they are too busy working on Milford
More like 33% over two weeks.

[winner69]

I notice buyers starting to come back. Don't forget AGM this Friday.Get in now at these lower prices before all the positive news on Friday. The quick and the dead here:D. Come on couta and Roger time to av down.

That little trip below 180 probably the turning point in this cycle - wonder high it will cycle up to this time around - i reckon 250 as a starting point.

[Fox]

That little trip below 180 probably the turning point in this cycle - wonder high it will cycle up to this time around - i reckon 250 as a starting point.
~$1.80 has proven to be a solid support during 2007 downtrend and recent uptrend late 2014 (see Hoop's post in TA thread). Don't think we will see $2.50 any time soon but a modest rally from here would be welcomed.

[winner69]

Nature sends us signals in many ways and Fibonacci told us about his golden numbers

Jeez 178 was a 61.8% retracement level (from 2011 lows to high 326 earlier this year) - often said to be reasonable support targets or turning points

Fox - based on Fibonacci things we'll get back to at least 236 ..or maybe 326 sometime. Cant firget that AIR trades in multi-year cycles.

[vin]

AIR has a mind of its own, it could go anywhere. Bloody rollercoaster has driven me insane with this stock.

[see weed]

AIR has a mind of its own, it could go anywhere. Bloody rollercoaster has driven me insane with this stock.
Don't worry, we are all on the same plane, just hit a bit of an air pocket. I think a little sp rise before AGM could happen. If everyone settled down and stopped selling then the sp could go back up to 2.40 early next year pre 10c div time, then you will be 60c better off not including div. Remember next year is only 14 weeks away;).

[vin]

I sold out at $3.020 back at the highs, thought I'd be smart and catch the knife at $2.70.. Actually makes me laugh typing this ha. But hey it's part of the game, live and learn. Done well in other stocks... Planning to ride this out.. I think.

But yes, agreed. We'll see next year.

[ohpark0119]

More like 33% over two weeks.

lol, i meant 3% a day for two weeks

[see weed]

I sold out at $3.020 back at the highs, thought I'd be smart and catch the knife at $2.70.. Actually makes me laugh typing this ha. But hey it's part of the game, live and learn. Done well in other stocks... Planning to ride this out.. I think.

But yes, agreed. We'll see next year.
LOL I bought AIR in the 80c to 90c in 2012 and sold at $1.30's and bought into snk which bogged me down for a few months and missed out on the AIR run up to $3, but that's the market.

[biker]

No question about that ... this is exactly what cyclical stocks are about. They go up and down and up and down again. I don't think anybody suggested that the current downtrend is the end of the world for AIR - it was more about whether it is wise to hold (or accumulate) a cyclical stock in the early (or medium) phases of a downtrend. Obviously - we might disagree on whether this is the start or already the end of the downtrend, but picking bottoms is something wiser people than me are getting wrong, so I better not attempt this discipline ...

So yes, everybody relax ... AIR is highly likely to go up again at some stage. The question is just when, and ... when it does ... wouldn't it have made more sense to own the same AIR shares bought cheap instead of still holding them purchased dear?

Shares are a bit like seats in a plane. You can pay lots for an AIR flight from CHC to AKL, or you can pay less for the same seat in the same plane on the same flight (if you get the timing right). Both seats will get you at the same time and with the same comfort (or lack thereof) to your destination. I personally prefer to buy them when they are on special (and - back to shares enjoy the same dividend than the people who paid lots), but this is just me.

Hard to argue with the veracity and logic of this post BP

[ohpark0119]

More like 33% over two weeks.

edited post --> 3% a day over two weeks

[skid]

I notice buyers starting to come back. Don't forget AGM this Friday.Get in now at these lower prices before all the positive news on Friday. The quick and the dead here:D. Come on couta and Roger time to av down.

But wait theres more -- Buy shares now and get a free set of AIR steak knives--:)

PS-Tell Coutts --thanx for letting us know--should we do the same:confused:

[axe]

Nature sends us signals in many ways and Fibonacci told us about his golden numbers

Jeez 178 was a 61.8% retracement level (from 2011 lows to high 326 earlier this year) - often said to be reasonable support targets or turning points

Fox - based on Fibonacci things we'll get back to at least 236 ..or maybe 326 sometime. Cant firget that AIR trades in multi-year cycles.

nature has sent us a singals - just we all interpret them differently - what is AIR's N.T.A per share these days???

[winner69]

nature has sent us a singals - just we all interpret them differently - what is AIR's N.T.A per share these days???

You know

QAN trades at 2.6 times NTA

What would AIR trade at on those multiples????

[workingdad]

WD--You seemed to have taken the middle road that satisfies both sides of the debate --You havent panic sold--and you have resisted the temptation to throw tons of money at a share when its going down (atm)--I tip my hat to you--(or perhaps it is your wife who should get the credit:)..)

Maybe just not man enough to need a wheelbarrow to cart my balls around in at the depth of some.

I have questioned the possibility of selling and buy back in once a bottom is more apparent but in reality have been surprised to see it get as low as it has. I shouldn't be surprised and some have picked it but I do make decisions on my own and that boat has sailed and I'm still comfortable with where I am sitting. Could have played it better but that's trading and it's easy with hindsight to say that now.

[Joshuatree]

Hopefully corrected your quote now BP .

[axe]

You know

QAN trades at 2.6 times NTA

What would AIR trade at on those multiples????

QAN is building shareholder value buying back shares.

[Snow Leopard]

Sichuan Airlines have got the necessary approvals to fly Chengdu - Auckland.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[thestg]

That little trip below 180 probably the turning point in this cycle - wonder high it will cycle up to this time around - i reckon 250 as a starting point.

I think in the worst case it could take up to 2 years to get back to $2.30. My reason for this is when looking back at the charts 2009 - 2011 low to high then fall again in 2011 and back to same level as when the fall started 2013. Still lots of nice dividends to collect & if they keep up then recovery should be a lot quicker.

[see weed]

What's happening here? AIR up 3c, is somebody sneaking in the back door looking for a bargain:).

[winner69]

What's happening here? AIR up 3c, is somebody sneaking in the back door looking for a bargain:).

Seeweed - todays bargain is IQE

Get heaps for a thou bucks - be in quick though

[see weed]

Seeweed - todays bargain is IQE

Get heaps for a thou bucks - be in quick though
Orrrrr Don't know about that. Bit scared of those edgermacation stocks.

[winner69]

Orrrrr Don't know about that. Bit scared of those edgermacation stocks.

Thought you were a bit of a punter and bargain hunter

[winner69]

QAN is building shareholder value buying back shares.

If AIR had spent $300m on a buyback (instead of the special divie) maybe the share price would still be in the 220's ......or even higher .....hmm

But then I think it was said that a buyback was not in the 'best interests' of shareholders .......another hmmm


And QAN early on were buying more than NTA as well .....hmmm

[Tony Two Gloves]

5 cents by lunch time - very nice, another 5 cents by close please :)

[ohpark0119]

AIR going up... something doesnt feel right lol

[skid]

AIR going up... something doesnt feel right lol

And the rest of the market is down--fancy that----Guess its time to start thinking about the results (In line with the last one?) Mr market is doing the normal hint of optimism in the lead up. Enjoy the long awaited happy day:)

[allfromacell]

$1.93 is $2.28 cum dividend so the way I see it, it could still fall plenty. I'm hoping to top up at around $1.80.

Got some more at $1.84 today, happy buying at this level and it seems we've had some strong support around this 'price'. Bounced off $2.15 on the result announcement and now $1.80 ($2.15 cum divi).

[sb9]

If AIR had spent $300m on a buyback (instead of the special divie) maybe the share price would still be in the 220's ......or even higher .....hmm

But then I think it was said that a buyback was not in the 'best interests' of shareholders .......another hmmm


And QAN early on were buying more than NTA as well .....hmmm

Bill wanted cash rather than higher sp...is it close half billion in all AIR paid to Govt thro divvies and taxes this year as quoted by Luxon, that's big money for treasury, hence no buy back!!!

[Raz]

Bill wanted cash rather than higher sp...is it close half billion in all AIR paid to Govt thro divvies and taxes this year as quoted by Luxon, that's big money for treasury, hence no buy back!!!

Well stated, good trading today:-)

[Tony Two Gloves]

Yep cat is out of the bag, earnings for the six months at the top end of the range! (info from an Air Hostess I know) :)

[sb9]

Yep cat is out of the bag, earnings for the six months at the top end of the range! (info from an Air Hostess I know) :)


True, I'm picking an element of surprise at ASM on Friday...mind you its way oversold recently in TA terms and am no TA expert though...

[Xerof]

Yep cat is out of the bag, earnings for the six months at the top end of the range! (info from an Air Hostess I know) :)

"This is your Captain speaking. We have hit some minor turbulence, so are climbing to 600mill NPBT to ensure a smooth journey for the comfort of passengers. You may unfasten your seatbelts, and loosen your sphincters

Please do not take this announcement as a buy recommendation. Thank you for flying with AIR"

At this point I would usually roll out my old pinbar candlestick formation, but you're all tired of seeing that. ST reversal was put on alert on Monday, confirmed yesterday, buy the open today was the stock standard safe trade

[BlackCross]

Now we are there, good on all those who got on in the 1.80s, I got heaps:). I bet couta and Roger are licking their lips, I know I am:t_up:.

Have Couta and Roger been banned and if so what for please?

[Snow Leopard]

In the rush for the emergency exits back in May the share price got down to $2.02.

Subtract the $0.35 of dividends in your bank account and add back in $0.11 of profits since that day and you would get:

$1.78

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Given that I hardly ever play the pick the [bottom] price game this turned out to be prophetic rather than pathetic.

Nice to see some happy AIR posters :).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Hey skid and Blackpeter - AIR's share price is on a roll

It's going great guns the last few days

Seeing you both talked it all the way down I take it you both now buying on the quiet eh ....and making big bucks

How long you reckon before back to 220

[bull....]

dow jones transports showing possible turn upside and the airlines are beneficiaries of this so we good be getting offshore folk buying up

[OldGuy]

What say all the TAers and their unadjusted price charts? What doom and gloom were they predicting last week??

[BlackPeter]

Hey skid and Blackpeter - AIR's share price is on a roll

It's going great guns the last few days

Seeing you both talked it all the way down I take it you both now buying on the quiet eh ....and making big bucks

How long you reckon before back to 220

I never talked AIR down ... I just happened to predict (quite accurately I might say) the share price movement before (and after) going ex-dividend.

I never said as well that it will stay down forever - did I?

Maybe you should save your glee for an occasion where you can prove me wrong, otherwise you might run out of it ...:p

Having said that - in my books the downtrend is still intact (SP well below MA50 and MA200), even if you adjust for the dividend. History will tell us, whether the current blib is just a dead cat bounce or a trend change.

Great time for traders, though (if you get the timing right) ... but that's not what I am doing.

Re 220 - no idea whether the SP will reach these lofty hights again. However - in the mid to long term would I still think that a continuation of the downtrend for another couple of years is more likely than a confirmed uptrend. Sure - a great summer season and / or the lions tour might keep the SP up for a while, but both won't stay around for ever.

[skid]

Hey skid and Blackpeter - AIR's share price is on a roll

It's going great guns the last few days

Seeing you both talked it all the way down I take it you both now buying on the quiet eh ....and making big bucks

How long you reckon before back to 220

Ha ha--(you are a stirrer indeed W-69) :) We may see some of the ole hands back soon--and so we should.

If your asking if Im now a supporter of dominating your portfolio with one share ,well you know the answer to that.

TTG-I have no idea if you really heard that, or whether stewardess are privy to that info ,but if it happens to be wrong some are going to be upset (and if true AIR could be in a spot of trouble?)

Still,they are on a roll and its all about results now---(I never argue with Mr Market---I was surprised when they didnt bounce when outside markets did though. Perhaps NZX was just in a bad mood at the time)

the answer to your question is the same as when you asked before about how far down :)

buy quietly? Nah to much uncertainty in markets in general--Ill leave that to you young bucks-Its not paramount that i take risks at this stage--Party on!.... but

(Id pay close attention to whether Trump is getting the upper hand(markets like Hillary),and the odds of Janet raising rates)---no one has a crystal ball,the best we can do is pay attention to those things that cause change......Well,maybe domestic stewardesses as well...

[stoploss]

"TTG-I have no idea if you really heard that, or whether stewardess are privy to that info ,but if it happens to be wrong some are going to be upset (and if true AIR could be in a spot of trouble?)"

Not stewardesses but maybe senior pilots .... ;)

[Mush]

"TTG-I have no idea if you really heard that, or whether stewardess are privy to that info ,but if it happens to be wrong some are going to be upset (and if true AIR could be in a spot of trouble?)"

Not stewardesses but maybe senior pilots .... ;)

I very much doubt even senior pilots are privy to that information.
Even so, 3-months to go until half year so i'm taking that comment with a grain of salt.

[winner69]

I very much doubt even senior pilots are privy to that information.
Even so, 3-months to go until half year so i'm taking that comment with a grain of salt.

Usually give some guidance for half year at the ASM

Like ....'we are pleased how the first quarter has gone and forecast first half profit before tax will be in excess of $300m' ....or something like that

If Chris said $300m the share price would take off big time

[Snow Leopard]

Usually give some guidance for half year at the ASM

Like ....'we are pleased how the first quarter has gone and forecast first half profit before tax will be in excess of $300m' ....or something like that

If Chris said $300m the share price would take off big time

By now they will have a pretty good idea of where the half year will be, a good number of seats will be sold and the costs are reasonably well know.

But of course, assuming that we get an half year guidance the interest will be in whether we get a revision to that full year estimated range and any other comments.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

As per shareholder communication sent...

" This year Air New Zealand is offering all our shareholders, regardless of
location, the ability to participate in the Annual Meeting online at www.airnewzealand.co.nz/annual-meeting (http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/annual-meeting). "

[Tony Two Gloves]

Just to clarify, I asked the Hostess if she had been busy - she said flat out! I take that to mean earnings will be in the upper range. Let me know if you think there is a floor in my investment strategy :)

[biker]

Just to clarify, I asked the Hostess if she had been busy - she said flat out! I take that to mean earnings will be in the upper range. Let me know if you think there is a floor in my investment strategy :)
There is no floor in it. It belongs in a bottomless pit. There is however a flaw in it - it stinks ;-)

[skid]

Im sure domestic is busy--no one said business would stop.

[King1212]

just returned from Queenstown..bloodly full flights....busy as....

[Hoop]

What say all the TAers and their unadjusted price charts? What doom and gloom were they predicting last week??

I very seldom post on this thread anymore...but I felt this post had to be answered..

Old Guy you have to remember that AIR is in a primary downtrend and people will always comment negatively about stocks in downtrends because that is what is happening...It's reality...TA postings...tells you the current state of AIR... TA is the Messager of the "Now"... not a forecaster wearing a rose tinted VR head set

TAers see change as it happens..a bit like the weather...any change we mention it....TAers were last week gloomy as AIR free-falled without news (always a worry)..On Monday this week I wrote Post #264 Using TA to Time entries and exits thread...quote

The old chart is showing some interesting stuff.....
Hmmm...bounced of 178.5 this morning...The trading price (TP) estimated was 178..Hmmm a short term buy?.................
...............Disc: staying away..not buying

The TA discipline is designed for portfolios to operate at maximum efficiency through optimum balancing capital rewards with risk...In other words TA discipline objectives is to keep the investor away from the frying pan and the fire and prevent emotional activity..ie greed, bias assumptions

[skid]

I very seldom post on this thread anymore...but I felt this post had to be answered..

Old Guy you have to remember that AIR is in a primary downtrend and people will always comment negatively about stocks in downtrends because that is what is happening...It's reality...TA postings...tells you the current state of AIR... TA is the Messager of the "Now"... not a forecaster wearing a rose tinted VR head set

TAers see change as it happens..a bit like the weather...any change we mention it....TAers were last week gloomy as AIR free-falled without news (always a worry)..On Monday this week I wrote Post #264 Using TA to Time entries and exits thread...quote


The TA discipline is designed for portfolios to operate at maximum efficiency through optimum balancing capital rewards with risk...In other words TA discipline objectives is to keep the investor away from the frying pan and the fire and prevent emotional activity..ie greed, bias assumptions

Greed?....Bias?...:ohmy: Nah that cant be true

[winner69]

Spose Air NZ is party to this rort .....but then again chris raves on about being environmentally responsible (he has to doesn't he)

https://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2016/09/27/climate-con-a-new-global-deal-on-aviation-emissions/


Extract:
It sounds like a fine riddle: what can grow exponentially but still remain the same size? A new global deal on climate emissions from aviation promises just that, ‘carbon neutral growth’ from an industry that is the world’s fastest growing source of greenhouse gases.

[sb9]

Anyone from the forum physically attending the ASM tmrw in Chch? Especially some of our South Island friends...

[winner69]

This is quite cool from twitter. We should be proud our planes look so good

Vancouver Airport‏ @yvrairport
Phenomenal photo of @FlyAirNZ soaring over YVR. Photo by @ItsCKRISTOyo

[Poet]

Anyone from the forum physically attending the ASM tmrw in Chch? Especially some of our South Island friends...

I'm going, did you want a question asked?

[Raz]

great trading conditions :-)

[ohpark0119]

I'm going, did you want a question asked?

You can do it online as well

[sb9]

I'm going, did you want a question asked?

Thanks Poet, nothing in particular just any snippets that you can gather other than what's posted online...

[ohpark0119]

Thanks Poet, nothing in particular just any snippets that you can gather other than what's posted online...

Can any shareholder attend the ASM or is it just for the big dogs ?

[777]

Can any shareholder attend the ASM or is it just for the big dogs ?

All shareholders are entitled to attend.

[Onion]

I am providing my own snacks for the ASM - at my desk, at work! Virtual meeting working so far!

[Onion]

Usually give some guidance for half year at the ASM

Like ....'we are pleased how the first quarter has gone and forecast first half profit before tax will be in excess of $300m' ....or something like that

If Chris said $300m the share price would take off big time

$400 to $600m from the Chairman.

... Not as good as this year but will [still] be one of the best results in AIR's history (Chris).

[brend]

$400 to $600m from the Chairman.

same range announced with the annual results.

[babymonster]

load factor similar but unable to charge a higher price...

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not sure I've learned anything from the presentation that wasn't already available. Well done to Air NZ for providing opportunity to attend online, I hope more NZ companies follow.

It was nice to hear a bit from the directors and get an idea of their diversity.

[peat]

And now they're raising funds with a 75M bond offer . such irrational behaviour.

[777]

And now they're raising funds with a 75M bond offer . such irrational behaviour.

Half right. They are also repaying a bond due in November and that is 150M. So a net reduction.

[Onion]

Well done to Air NZ for providing opportunity to attend online, I hope more NZ companies follow.

Totally agree - I think that they have done it well. With the technology provided by Link Market Services the opportunity exists for other companies but it must come at a cost that probably only makes sense for the larger companies.

[Mush]

And now they're raising funds with a 75M bond offer . such irrational behaviour.

Please explain how that is irrational?
Cheap money in the NZ market at the moment, why wouldn't you want to raise debt at these levels?

[brend]

And now they're raising funds with a 75M bond offer . such irrational behaviour.


What do you mean? they have $150m of bonds to be repaid shortly

[peat]

the special div is what I mean, why would you pay out with one hand , and ask to borrow with the other..... the dividend money would have been their cheapest source of financing wouldn't it? cheaper even than current mkt rates.

so are we not seeing that their majority shareholder (the govt) is influencing their financing strategy. I guess that's okay (or maybe not - shouldn't the directors be making these decisions for the benefit of the company itself) but seems a bit silly to me , form your own opinions of course.

[BlackPeter]

the special div is what I mean, why would you pay out with one hand , and ask to borrow with the other..... the dividend money would have been their cheapest source of financing wouldn't it? cheaper even than current mkt rates.

so are we not seeing that their majority shareholder (the govt) is influencing their financing strategy. I guess that's okay (or maybe not - shouldn't the directors be making these decisions for the benefit of the company itself) but seems a bit silly to me , form your own opinions of course.

Well, yes ... of course is the majority shareholder influencing the financing strategy. It is ultimately them picking (or firing) the directors. Remember: never bite the hand which feeds you ... I suppose that the AIR board is well aware of this saying.

[BlackPeter]

$400 to $600m from the Chairman.

... Not as good as this year but will [still] be one of the best results in AIR's history (Chris).

Haven't followed the AGM (not a share holder) - but just looking at the market reaction it appears the markets have not been overwhelmed. Down 2.5 cents.

[Zaphod]

Haven't followed the AGM (not a share holder) - but just looking at the market reaction it appears the markets have not been overwhelmed. Down 2.5 cents.

IMO there are probably bigger issues depressing things in the wider financial markets at the moment.

[777]

Haven't followed the AGM (not a share holder) - but just looking at the market reaction it appears the markets have not been overwhelmed. Down 2.5 cents.

The price of the shares before the meeting were down 2.5c so no reaction yet from the meeting.

[thestg]

I thought the meeting went very well. No surprises just conformation of what had already been released.
It was nice to relax back in my nice warm lounge watching it on the big screen TV, while having the option to vote & ask any questions. I just couldn’t resist a glass of Merlot & a snack.
I now feel happy to hold on to my shares longer, as the company gives me that feeling it is well run & the shareholders are being well looked after.

[RGR367]

IMO there are probably bigger issues depressing things in the wider financial markets at the moment.

Yeah. And who would want to buy AIR on a Friday afternoon? Friday at work is even called "TGINWF**" :p Besides, those wanting to buy should have bought already 183 as next week it will be going up already***

** Thank God It's No Work Friday
*** hope springs eternal and gut feel say it is

[sb9]

Live webcast was cool, looks like business as usual all in order...few hiccups here and there as expected. I expect sp to recover slowly over next few weeks back into $2 range.

[skid]

Live webcast was cool, looks like business as usual all in order...few hiccups here and there as expected. I expect sp to recover slowly over next few weeks back into $2 range.

Why, whats different? I do agree that outside markets may be playing a part though.(guess we will know more tonight(DOW) or when the DB saga unfolds ..but dont forget ..this is AIR ,expectations count for nothing (Hell,maybe we'd be better off with the bonds):)

[babymonster]

They answered my question sent from my computer. First time ever asking a question at an agm

[workingdad]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11720333

Interesting article saying Singapore airlines NZ passenger revenue fell 12%

Net profit rose to $7.9 million in the 12 months ended March 31, from $4.8m a year earlier, Singapore Airlines NZ's financial statements lodged with the Companies Office show. Revenue, which is almost entirely attributable to passengers, dropped 12 per cent to $175.8m, while expenditure fell 14 per cent to $168m.
The NZ company's fuel bill dropped 25 per cent in 2016 to $53.6m as the price of crude oil fell, reaching 12-year lows in February. A global glut of oil, driven by increased supply from the US, Canada, Iraq and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and slower demand from China, drove the price of crude 75 per cent down from its levels of mid-2014.

[see weed]

Am a bit late for the live meeting yesterday. Anyone know where I can find a rerun of it?:confused:

[mshierlaw]

Am a bit late for the live meeting yesterday. Anyone know where I can find a rerun of it?:confused:

http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/xc9rxi7z/r/1

[777]

Info on Air site.

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11720333

Interesting article saying Singapore airlines NZ passenger revenue fell 12%

Net profit rose to $7.9 million in the 12 months ended March 31, from $4.8m a year earlier, Singapore Airlines NZ's financial statements lodged with the Companies Office show. Revenue, which is almost entirely attributable to passengers, dropped 12 per cent to $175.8m, while expenditure fell 14 per cent to $168m.
The NZ company's fuel bill dropped 25 per cent in 2016 to $53.6m as the price of crude oil fell, reaching 12-year lows in February. A global glut of oil, driven by increased supply from the US, Canada, Iraq and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and slower demand from China, drove the price of crude 75 per cent down from its levels of mid-2014.

So the questions are:
1/ Why did revenue fall so much?
2/ When you have answered 1/ of what relevance is this article to anything?

If you are interested in Singapore Airlines then their financial information is available from their website.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

So the questions are:
1/ Why did revenue fall so much?
2/ When you have answered 1/ of what relevance is this article to anything?

If you are interested in Singapore Airlines then their financial information is available from their website.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Having seen Lewis Hamilton's title championship hopes literally go up in smoke I will answer my own questions:

1/ For 3/4 of FY15 Singapore Air operated 2 daily return flights SIN-AKL, but from 6-Jan-15 they only operated one. The dropped slot was taken up by AIR themselves and all this was part of an agreement between them.
2/ None.

Best Wishes
Paper 'McLaren Fan' Tiger

[percy]

Having seen Lewis Hamilton's title championship hopes literally go up in smoke I will answer my own questions:

Paper 'McLaren Fan' Tiger
7th and 9th.Slowly improving.?

[winner69]

ASM just repeating guidance a bit disappointing and leaves market in limbo

Maybe that unknown analyst was right - airline management are useless at forecasting profits (or something like that)

So 400m to 600m just a big guess?

[skid]

Would it be fair to say that now that the meeting is over,that this week should show whether AIR is going to bounce back on track or that this is its new normal?

[winner69]

Would it be fair to say that now that the meeting is over,that this week should show whether AIR is going to bounce back on track or that this is its new normal?

prob new normal

Unless monthly operating stats are good (less worse than some think) i can't see much that will see the share price bounce back (quickly)

[BlackPeter]

prob new normal

Unless monthly operating stats are good (less worse than some think) i can't see much that will see the share price bounce back (quickly)

So what can you see which would bring the SP back slowly? Analysts expect that 2017 is worse than 2016 but better than 2018 ...

Or do you mean "really slow" - like 2019?;)

[Bobdn]

Everything is green and bubbling away nicely in my portfolio. Except for AIR. It's always Black Monday for Air at the moment.

[ohpark0119]

Everything is green and bubbling away nicely in my portfolio. Except for AIR. It's always Black Monday for Air at the moment.

Black Monday? More like Black Everyday.

[boysy]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11721595

The fact air not cannot provide a tighter range in their forecasts suggests they are not confident of breaching the $400m level after 6 months of this financial year.

[Snow Leopard]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11721595
...

"New airline joins wave of services between Auckland and China"

I am losing track - did we know about this one already or not?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11721595

The fact air not cannot provide a tighter range in their forecasts suggests they are not confident of breaching the $400m level after 6 months of this financial year.

You saying it could be bad? - i reckon lot closer to $600m than most expect

[winner69]

As we approach peak stuff one of the beneficiaries will be the airline industry - and I reckon Air New Zealand are in a position to do better than most.

Possibly F18 will be better than F17

[Baa_Baa]

As we approach peak stuff one of the beneficiaries will be the airline industry - and I reckon Air New Zealand are in a position to do better than most.

Possibly F18 will be better than F17

Either way winner, the good times are behind us now, the 'cycle' is in control and earnings will reduce for the foreseeable future, despite all time low input costs. As pointed out, the wide spread in guidance gives little confidence and barely a week goes by without some other airline making moves on Air's patch. Thank goodness for a monopoly on local air travel, but still that's no basis for predicting where the SP will end up, before it's up again.

[winner69]

That near monopoly on local air travel is very lucrative

Could see improved profits locally - all those tourists flying around the country and significant operational efficiencies still flowing through to the bottom line, like those little 19 seater jobs they have just taken out of service were apparently losing them a couple million a month - things like this all add up

Whatever i reckon F17 in excess of $500m (2nd highest profit ever) - on reflection not much point in them fine tuning the guidance this early into the year

They sitting on 10 grand of my cash for travel next year - jeez I forgot that the first $50m/$60m or so of each years profit is the return on prepaid airfares

[Baa_Baa]

That near monopoly on local air travel is very lucrative

Could see improved profits locally - all those tourists flying around the country and significant operational efficiencies still flowing through to the bottom line, like those little 19 seater jobs they have just taken out of service were apparently losing them a couple million a month - things like this all add up

Whatever i reckon F17 in excess of $500m (2nd highest profit ever) - on reflection not much point in them fine tuning the guidance this early into the year

They sitting on 10 grand of my cash for travel next year - jeez I forgot that the first $50m/$60m or so of each years profit is the return on prepaid airfares

Pretty smart move those big wigs selling in their 'window' of opportunity, an impressive line up of 'in the know' bods flicking their remuneration shares. I reckon that just about says it all, been downhill ever since.

[Snow Leopard]

Based on the story so far my analysis comes up with a pretax profit for AIR for the 2017 financial year of:

$540,843,082.52

But in my heart of hearts I expect things to get a little tougher and the pretax result will actually be

$488,527,851.52

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: not totally convinced about the 52c

[Bobdn]

On those numbers and at the current price, are you tempted to have a dabble?

I see oil is knocking at $50. I hope it goes up. What's the point of having super fuel efficient Dreamliners with oil being so cheap :)

[Snow Leopard]

On those numbers and at the current price, are you tempted to have a dabble?

I see oil is knocking at $50. I hope it goes up. What's the point of having super fuel efficient Dreamliners with oil being so cheap :)

1/. No

2/. I am sure every airline in the world is hoping the price of oil rises so they can get their monies worth on their new B787s, A350s or A32X-neos.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Time they all took away the fuel surcharge

[skid]

Based on the story so far my analysis comes up with a pretax profit for AIR for the 2017 financial year of:

$540,843,082.52

But in my heart of hearts I expect things to get a little tougher and the pretax result will actually be

$488,527,851.52

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: not totally convinced about the 52c

and once that .52 goes --there goes another 100mil:)

[skid]

That near monopoly on local air travel is very lucrative

Could see improved profits locally - all those tourists flying around the country and significant operational efficiencies still flowing through to the bottom line, like those little 19 seater jobs they have just taken out of service were apparently losing them a couple million a month - things like this all add up

Whatever i reckon F17 in excess of $500m (2nd highest profit ever) - on reflection not much point in them fine tuning the guidance this early into the year

They sitting on 10 grand of my cash for travel next year - jeez I forgot that the first $50m/$60m or so of each years profit is the return on prepaid airfares

man ,you must be rich if your flying AIR W69:)--( The wife has ditched AIR to Vancouver-Montreal this year in favor of the cheaper option ,going through San Fran--even if it does entail putting up with USA transit)--you can now buy a transit pass--believe that? First they force you to go through customs (security?)and then later turn around and charge you for the privilege of transiting-(thus bypassing immigration)......-(anything to make a buck)

[Mush]

Oil trades within a very tight band ($40-$60 Brent) until the end of 2017, shale producers in the states effectively form a cap or price ceiling as when it becomes economical to turn the taps on again, they have the ability to do so in a matter of weeks. The OPEC agreement (which hasn't been agreed until November), was more an effort to jawbone it off the $45 handle, which was being tested. A move through there would have seen a look at $40.

A large portion of last years profit/dividend was attributed to low fuel, so careful what you wish for. Higher fuel, better utilization of the more efficient fleet does not equal higher profit (may reduce competition however).

[JeremyALD]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

[ohpark0119]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

bought before div @ $2.12 and still holding. have no clue where this flight is going. To everyone here, what's your valuation of AIR? Is $1.8 a fair value?

[Jantar]

bought before div @ $2.12 and still holding. have no clue where this flight is going. To everyone here, what's your valuation of AIR? Is $1.8 a fair value?
Way undervalued at current price. Even if AIR only maintains their base divi that is a 10% return on investment after tax.

[skid]

Where does everyone see the Share Price in a year from now? I'm already 15% down and although I'm happy hold for a year or two I don't really want to lose much more! Shame on me for buying in the day after the dividend payment thinking things would return to $2.20 levels

No one can really tell you that (SP)Jeremy,just general stuff about what sort of strategy one uses for investing. TA is one way to get some guidance but if your not experienced you may need to do some learning (TA thread)--One way or the other,most would agree that some sort of a plan is prudent. Perhaps set a price that is the most loss you can tolerate and stick to it-- Some do buy and hold although by your question that may not be your cup of tea.That involves a certain amount of faith that things will bounce eventually because the market has come to its senses or the company performance inproves (and outside markets behave themselves)
Perhaps one rough guide is where we are right now--This 180 SP has been a hard fought resistance level that has not been broken yet.That might be a good thing to keep an eye on. If it breaks below that (aside from just a few buys and sells) then perhaps give your ''just in case''plan some thought. Many investors have one right from the start which is not a bad idea. That was my main point when posting around dividend time. not to buy or dont buy ..but just think it through before you decide how much to throw at it,and have a plan just in case things dont come up roses.......but then ..Im just a loser..(took my loss some months ago)

[skid]

Way undervalued at current price. Even if AIR only maintains their base divi that is a 10% return on investment after tax.

what % of return did you get this time around?

[JeremyALD]

Thanks I'm pretty new to share trading but overall have picked good stocks based on business rationale. AIR has certainly been a lesson for me to not try and catch a falling knife. It's funny looking early this year when the share market was falling and AIR just kept going higher. Who would of thought we'd be in this position 6 months down the track!

[Jantar]

what % of return did you get this time around?
After tax: 22.5% :t_up:

[sb9]

Who would of thought we'd be in this position 6 months down the track!

Absolutely correct, who knows what'll happen in another 6 months time..;)

[skid]

After tax: 22.5% :t_up:

You hav'nt done your maths correctly IMO--You hav'nt taken in consideration the correction in the SP at the cutoff time--I believe my rough estimate was somewhere around 6-8% (still in the black though),assuming you sold immediately upon div.closing unless of course ,you held on to your shares.(and then it gets a bit more complicated between dividend influence and company (SP) performance.) Correct me if Im wrong Roger
So when thinking about future div. you need (IMO) to take into consideration the potential drop in the SP (drop in the value of the company) Otherwise whats the point banking the div. if your shares take the corresponding hit? (the ''free money'' debate)
In other words your total profit/loss, in that share

[Jantar]

You hav'nt done your maths correctly IMO--You hav'nt taken in consideration the correction in the SP at the cutoff time-..... No I didn't take any price correction into consideration. That was my return on the amount of money I had invested into AIR, not on the value of those shares immediately before or immediately after the payout. As I am in for the long term, I believe I have calculated the percentage using the correct method. Now if I have to sell my shares at the current price then I will have a net loss, but I have no intention of selling. Instead I intend holding for a number of years, maybe even 10 to 20 years.

If the SP continues to drop after each dividend by the amount of that divi then within 10 years AIR shares will be free and still paying 20 cps. Somehow, such a long term drop does not seem logical even for a cyclical share.

[winner69]

Seems like Chief of Marketing and Chief Customer guy has cashed in his bonuses and has $726,000 odd more in the bank tonight

Deserved it I reckon - hard working and successful guy

Nothing to do with how the company is performing I reckon - after all he still has 217,000 shares and some more performance rights
No worries here

I think I read that notice correctly

[skid]

No I didn't take any price correction into consideration. That was my return on the amount of money I had invested into AIR, not on the value of those shares immediately before or immediately after the payout. As I am in for the long term, I believe I have calculated the percentage using the correct method. Now if I have to sell my shares at the current price then I will have a net loss, but I have no intention of selling. Instead I intend holding for a number of years, maybe even 10 to 20 years.

If the SP continues to drop after each dividend by the amount of that divi then within 10 years AIR shares will be free and still paying 20 cps. Somehow, such a long term drop does not seem logical even for a cyclical share.

Well,thats the future..Im just bringing up the point that there is a condition attached to that 22% --it was not ''free money'' as only part was free and clear, so this needs to be taken into consideration when using it to ''value'' a share (undervalued?)in terms of the reason for buying or selling.---I believe if you immediately reinvested the dividend back into more shares and then looked at your value ,you would have a better idea--You would end up with more shares and a net worth or more or less than before the dividend,depending. You may still come out sweet,but I personally dont think it can be looked at as a ''given''---Your dividend is a liability to the company that has to be made up in some way to get back to their previous value. --Your banking on them getting back to that value by their performance. Thats fair enough but the dividend alone is not a reason why they are undervalued IMO----IMO that performance is solely what should be concentrated on at this stage--thats where the ''rubber meets the road''(or runway)

[BlackPeter]

Way undervalued at current price. Even if AIR only maintains their base divi that is a 10% return on investment after tax.

So - you are saying if somebody trustworthy guarantees that AIR maintains the promised divie of 20 cents, than it is already undervalued. I think I can agree with this assessment. However - the question is - how much is it worth if it does not maintain its base divi? In my view it is a quite dangerous assumption to rely on AIR being able to deliver 20 cents divie year after year. Just ask Mr. & Mrs. Market, they agree.

[winner69]

I hope that Mike doing a bit of selling isn't the start of another round of management selling - as doing so seems to put pressure on the share price.

His 403k shares were a decent whack of the 2.1 million traded that day .....a day when price was down 5 cents from previous days close of 185

Mike got just over 1.80 for his.

[Jaa]

Looks like the Vietnam route hasn't been a big winner yet.

Frequency next year will go from 3 times a week to twice a week but the plane will be up-gauged from a 767 to a 787.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/84592160/air-new-zealand-auckland-to-vietnam-route-to-get-the-7879-dreamliner

[King1212]

Looks like the Vietnam route hasn't been a big winner yet.

Frequency next year will go from 3 times a week to twice a week but the plane will be up-gauged from a 767 to a 787.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/84592160/air-new-zealand-auckland-to-vietnam-route-to-get-the-7879-dreamliner

It did not state on the article that the route has not been a big winner..u concluded yourself...:t_down:

[Raz]

I hope that Mike doing a bit of selling isn't the start of another round of management selling - as doing so seems to put pressure on the share price.

His 403k shares were a decent whack of the 2.1 million traded that day .....a day when price was down 5 cents from previous days close of 185

Mike got just over 1.80 for his.


Yes...what fun shareholders are having, yet to buy in again and happy at this time I have not. Selling out my last parcel just under $2.00 seems a long away from where we are now.

[fish]

Yes...what fun shareholders are having, yet to buy in again and happy at this time I have not. Selling out my last parcel just under $2.00 seems a long away from where we are now.

fully agree-bought another pile at close today.
Seems to be panic selling once it breached the 180 barrier.
I do like those that follow TA

[Ggcc]

Maybe the government could buy the shares back if they drop below $1.70.......

[Jaa]

Updates in blue.

London & Europe
- Emirates A380 direct rom Auckland to Dubai (Daily - Mar 16)
- Emirates A380 from Christchurch to Dubai via Sydney (Daily - Oct 16)
- Qatar direct flight to Doha (Daily - Feb 17)

USA
- American Airlines to Los Angeles (Daily - Jun 16)
- United Airlines to San Francisco (Daily - Jul 16)

China & HK
- Air China to Beijing (Daily - Dec 15)
- Hong Kong Airlines (Daily - Nov 16)
- Hainan Airlines A330 to Shenzhen (3x weekly - Jan 17)
- Tianjin Airlines A330 to Chongqing and a tag flight to Tianjin (3x weekly - Dec 16)

Asia
- Philippine Airlines A320 to Manila via Cairns (4x weekly - Dec 15)
- Air Asia X to Kuala Lumpur via Gold Coast (Daily - Mar 16)
- Singapore Airlines from Wellington to Singapore via Canberra (4x weekly - Sep 16)
- Asiana Airlines from Christchurch to Seoul (Weekly over summer 16/17)

Trans Tasman
- Qantas flights from Christchurch to Brisbane (Increase from 3x weekly to daily - 30 Oct)
- Qantas flights from Christchurch to Melbourne (Daily - 4 Dec)

NZ Domestic
- Jetstar Regional (Daily - Dec 15 & Feb 16)

[Jaa]

It did not state on the article that the route has not been a big winner..u concluded yourself...:t_down:

Yes I did, routes that are winners see increased frequency. That is airline economics 101.

[Baa_Baa]

I hope that Mike doing a bit of selling isn't the start of another round of management selling - as doing so seems to put pressure on the share price.

His 403k shares were a decent whack of the 2.1 million traded that day .....a day when price was down 5 cents from previous days close of 185

Mike got just over 1.80 for his.

The big wigs selling have unfailingly forecast lower share prices. Those that are in the 'know' are telling you something.

[Snow Leopard]

See that my $1.78 provided a minimum cruising altitude once again.

Let us see how it goes.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[see weed]

bought before div @ $2.12 and still holding. have no clue where this flight is going. To everyone here, what's your valuation of AIR? Is $1.8 a fair value?
Anything under 1.90 is good value. I have plan B in action at the moment.

[see weed]

fully agree-bought another pile at close today.
Seems to be panic selling once it breached the 180 barrier.
I do like those that follow TA
I bought two lots yesterday, some on open at 1.82 and some on close at 1.79, and will keep on buying every time it drops. Am in a good position for the rebound. The problem with ta is when it has rebounded and gone up 20c I will not have to worry about getting in early. Don't forget AIR goes ex div in 20 weeks and should be back to 1.90 hopefully before Christmas. :)

[winner69]

Hey PT - changed your avatar recently? New one is really spooky

[skid]

It did not state on the article that the route has not been a big winner..u concluded yourself...:t_down:

Dont quote me but I thought i remember reading it was ''disappointing'' or something to that affect--I would have considered it if I hadnt already had a pretty good ticket (but only because the particular dates were not to much more) but alas other date were IMO not competitive with some--they compared with Singapore air but thats some big boots to fill. ill be keeping an eye out for a deal.

[skid]

Anything under 1.90 is good value. I have plan B in action at the moment.


Who says?...

[see weed]

Who says?...
All the buyers.

[skid]

All the buyers.

Whoooo,there cowboy..back up the horse...not there yet:)......one thing they are saying atm though is that if this was a war that 1.80 is guarded by infantry, tanks ,war planes,and nukes :):)

[iceman]

Seems like Chief of Marketing and Chief Customer guy has cashed in his bonuses and has $726,000 odd more in the bank tonight

Deserved it I reckon - hard working and successful guy

Nothing to do with how the company is performing I reckon - after all he still has 217,000 shares and some more performance rights
No worries here

I think I read that notice correctly

Not a bad little bonus after mere 3 years employment. No doubt justified with huge benefits for SH !!

[thestg]

All the buyers.

Looks like plenty of buyers today at $1.80, must be good value.

[skid]

Looks like plenty of buyers today at $1.80, must be good value.

Yep hellava battle going on..quite interesting watching the buyers (good value?) and sellers jumping ship:)

[sb9]

Looks like plenty of buyers today at $1.80, must be good value.

And sellers may I add. Holding okay today looking at overall market. Think the sp has found support at 180...

[Snow Leopard]

Hey PT - changed your avatar recently? New one is really spooky
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/kungfupanda/images/c/cf/KFP3-promo-tigress.jpg/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/270?cb=20160314161339
http://kungfupanda.wikia.com/wiki/Tigress

March, I believe I changed it in March (this year).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[ohpark0119]

And sellers may I add. Holding okay today looking at overall market. Think the sp has found support at 180...

good to see the support

[Traderwannabe]

Just on ASB securities depth and the last price was $1.80 and someone is selling a parcel of 38,000 for $1.75? Is this a mistake or are they deliberately trying to reduce the last price?

[mikeybycrikey]

Just on ASB securities depth and the last price was $1.80 and someone is selling a parcel of 38,000 for $1.75? Is this a mistake or are they deliberately trying to reduce the last price?

It's the pre-close auction. Happens every day, from 4:45pm. Have a look at this thread for more info: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8757-End-of-day-selling-on-NZX

[777]

Just on ASB securities depth and the last price was $1.80 and someone is selling a parcel of 38,000 for $1.75? Is this a mistake or are they deliberately trying to reduce the last price?

Observe other stocks between 1645 and 1700 and you will see similar quotes. It happens at opening time as well. the settlement price is different. Normal practice every day morning and night.

[Traderwannabe]

Very interesting....thanks for the link :mellow:

[Snow Leopard]

Nearly 1.4 million shares changed hands at $1.78 before open this morning.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: This is getting spooky

[BlackPeter]

If you happen to be that day in Christchurch and want to hear more from Tony Carter (AIR - board chair) - here is your opportunity:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10332-NZSA-Canterbury-meetings-amp-seminars&p=639524#post639524

[skid]

There you go---Must be someone else doing the selling:)

[winner69]

That 178 number does seem to be a mystical price

[King1212]

The SP is already down for almost 4 weeks...so certainly it will start to bounce back again....

[vin]

The SP is already down for almost 4 weeks...so certainly it will start to bounce back again....

^ Definitely not 'certainly'. Wouldn't surprise me if it went to $1.50, nobody knows. AIR has a mind of its own. (IMO)

[see weed]

The SP is already down for almost 4 weeks...so certainly it will start to bounce back again....
The quick and the dead. I just bought in at 1.77:t_up:.

[bull....]

im still watching 1.74, oil price doesn't help sentiment

[winner69]

The SP is already down for almost 4 weeks...so certainly it will start to bounce back again....

Last week was an UP week - maybe this week will be an UP one as well

[cdonald]

The quick and the dead. I just bought in at 1.77:t_up:.

hopefully you caught the handle rather than the blade this time.

[King1212]

The quick and the dead. I just bought in at 1.77:t_up:.


Well see weed in....the prophecy will come true.....:D

[see weed]

hopefully you caught the handle rather than the blade this time.
I have caught the blade about 22 times in the last few weeks:). But am now using a basket because the knife has no handle, but two blades;).

[sb9]

The quick and the dead. I just bought in at 1.77:t_up:.

Good on ya mate, looks like your strategy is working...recovered all losses from this morning!!!

[ohpark0119]

first time in a long time to see AIR go up in the middle of the day lol

[bonmaklad]

ok... we are at that time.... I am going to have to sell if we get to that 1.75 mark.... there is no point in me loosing money on securities :P If I had more moola I would double up again... this seems like amazing value

[see weed]

first time in a long time to see AIR go up in the middle of the day lol
Yes, it must be running out of sellers. When this thing rebounds, there is a good 10c to 20c to be made plus 10c div. But who needs the div. if you make 20c. remember it's only 5 months before ex div. Christmas is here in 11 weeks, and then ex div 7 weeks later after holidays:t_up:. I'm just getting in early before the rush.:D... Forgot to mention, what was that yield again...was it 12% or 15%?

[vin]

I have caught the blade about 22 times in the last few weeks:). But am now using a basket because the knife has no handle, but two blades;).

Haha, that is awesome. Your hand must be tougher than a blacksmiths!

[see weed]

ok... we are at that time.... I am going to have to sell if we get to that 1.75 mark.... there is no point in me loosing money on securities :P If I had more moola I would double up again... this seems like amazing value
If you sell now, you could get 1.785c, I could do with some more, but if you would like to wait, then I will get them at 1.75, whatever suits you, what's a few cents between friends;).

[skid]

Yes, it must be running out of sellers. When this thing rebounds, there is a good 10c to 20c to be made plus 10c div. But who needs the div. if you make 20c. remember it's only 5 months before ex div. Christmas is here in 11 weeks, and then ex div 7 weeks later after holidays:t_up:. I'm just getting in early before the rush.:D... Forgot to mention, what was that yield again...was it 12% or 15%?

I was just thinking it was about time for another of your predictions there SW :):):) (except no one is listening to any one on ST You proved that this morning(?).....Dang..what a day..its all over the place!

[skid]

If you sell now, you could get 1.785c, I could do with some more, but if you would like to wait, then I will get them at 1.75, whatever suits you, what's a few cents between friends;).

and if you both wait...someone will get them for.....(fill in the blank)

[bonmaklad]

I am going to wait.... I am suspecting either something is happening that I don't know about or a bunch of people are selling out of fear. I am going to assume the later... and put a buy order in at 1.75

[Baa_Baa]

ok... we are at that time.... I am going to have to sell if we get to that 1.75 mark.... there is no point in me loosing money on securities :P If I had more moola I would double up again... this seems like amazing value


I am going to wait.... I am suspecting either something is happening that I don't know about or a bunch of people are selling out of fear. I am going to assume the later... and put a buy order in at 1.75

Lol, good luck.
:confused:

[Raz]

Yes, it must be running out of sellers. When this thing rebounds, there is a good 10c to 20c to be made plus 10c div. But who needs the div. if you make 20c. remember it's only 5 months before ex div. Christmas is here in 11 weeks, and then ex div 7 weeks later after holidays:t_up:. I'm just getting in early before the rush.:D... Forgot to mention, what was that yield again...was it 12% or 15%?

if and only if you buy at the right price at the right time..

[winner69]

Fly AIR from Brisbane to Buenos Aries

Dave will see to it

Love it

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11723703

[bonmaklad]

Lol, good luck.
:confused:

had a think, a chat, a whisky, re looked at my charts and going to power through

[workingdad]

Fly AIR from Brisbane to Buenos Aries

Dave will see to it

Love it

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11723703

Crack up. Good marketing campaign. Hope it pays off but with everyone else invading nz why not hot Aussie. As long as it's done with some caution this time.

[see weed]

Are we there yet:)?.....So is that it?.... Is $1.76c the low for 2016?.....All will be revealed tomorrow:mellow:. Or next year.

[Snow Leopard]

Surely it should have been Bruce the Goose?

So $1.76 is the new $1.78

Onwards and whicheverwaywards

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

Fly AIR from Brisbane to Buenos Aries

Dave will see to it

Love it

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11723703

I love the add however how do the flight times compare going over to LA via Auckland vs Sydney for those outside Sydney Australia, I would suspect not favourable so plan to compete on price?? People with any experience will look at time for the whole trip. See the clear point of difference on Buenos Aries option...

Good to see wifi in 2017..need to to do something on the old 777 economy seats- several broken seats in economy on my last flight..not such a kick ass product when you are reading about all the sustainability strategies they are adopting in the monthly mag yet seats are stuffed and can't recline as broken..rich in irony.

[Jaa]

I love the add however how do the flight times compare going over to LA via Auckland vs Sydney for those outside Sydney Australia, I would suspect not favourable so plan to compete on price?? People with any experience will look at time for the whole trip. See the clear point of difference on Buenos Aries option...

Good to see wifi in 2017..need to to do something on the old 777 economy seats- several broken seats in economy on my last flight..not such a kick ass product when you are reading about all the sustainability strategies they are adopting in the monthly mag yet seats are stuffed and can't recline as broken..rich in irony.

No one else flies Australia to Houston or Buenos Aires so they have 2 of the 5 routes to themselves. Aussies hate Sydney airport and especially the transferring from domestic to international via the road/city train.

Thus it's a great campaign and been a long time coming. Love that they seem to be in it for the long term and see each Australian state as a separate market, if more NZ companies did this we would have a lot less Aussie expansions going wrong.

PS: every time I think about buying more AIR I read the comments on this thread and decide to wait a while longer.

[see weed]

Good morning battlers. So where are we now? Things are looking up, we are now at a 2 year low, but are up 1c from this years low, and Morningstar has a val.of $2.60c...wooow, now 83c below their val. Someone is going to make some dosh when it rebounds. Food for thought....In the last cycle sp only went down 66c from Morningstars valuation, I know, because I bought some on 6/6/12, but was in a similar situation as now, had plan B in action, and didn't know at the time that it was the bottom of cycle, then sp shot up over time to $3. Not expecting that this time, but would expect at least 10 or 20c at some stage in the future:t_up:.

[King1212]

Good morning battlers. So where are we now? Things are looking up, we are now at a 2 year low, but are up 1c from this years low, and Morningstar has a val.of $2.60c...wooow, now 83c below their val. Someone is going to make some dosh when it rebounds. Food for thought....In the last cycle sp only went down 66c from Morningstars valuation, I know, because I bought some on 6/6/12, but was in a similar situation as now, had plan B in action, and didn't know at the time that it was the bottom of cycle, then sp shot up over time to $3. Not expecting that this time, but would expect at least 10 or 20c at some stage in the future:t_up:.

good on u! I wish I have more fund..spent it yesterday all on JHC....on sales....

[cdonald]

looks like price competition is heating up with Cathay doing business class return to Europe for $3500 at the moment. As its a choice between $2800 economy for Air NZ or $3500 business class Cathay I know which way I am going to fly. I think we might have to see significant discounting going on soon. In saying that, the local business must be doing great!

[see weed]

Sellers a bit shy this morning? If that keeps up then should be over 1.80 soon;).

[winner69]

Sellers a bit shy this morning? If that keeps up then should be over 1.80 soon;).

When it's a good day for Rakon shares one would think AIR would do quite well

[arc]

Are we there yet:)?.....So is that it?.... Is $1.76c the low for 2016?.....All will be revealed tomorrow:mellow:. Or next year.

Dont hold your breath...
Some internal's seem to think there's more value in exercising options, and immediately offloading for the cash.

[winner69]

Dont hold your breath...
Some internal's seem to think there's more value in exercising options, and immediately offloading for the cash.

C'mon - everybody is entitled to open their pay packet every now and again. Even management have to live

[workingdad]

I still haven't doubled down yet, been waiting and still looking for some signs of stability in price and perhaps another couple of months operating stats. Long term will be the plan when I get the sense of the sell off being over but with high volumes day after day at these levels I am not convinced it wont have a bit more weakness, even the brief jump to 1.92 wasn't the show of strength I had thought....

AIR is out of flavour and sentiment is weak so still sitting back and waiting.

[Zaphod]

I love the add however how do the flight times compare going over to LA via Auckland vs Sydney for those outside Sydney Australia, I would suspect not favourable so plan to compete on price?? People with any experience will look at time for the whole trip. See the clear point of difference on Buenos Aries option...

Good to see wifi in 2017..need to to do something on the old 777 economy seats- several broken seats in economy on my last flight..not such a kick ass product when you are reading about all the sustainability strategies they are adopting in the monthly mag yet seats are stuffed and can't recline as broken..rich in irony.

Jaa mentioned the competition which is very important, given any flight to EZE will require a connection from Australia to another country. There are sometimes cheaper routing options than Australia to EZE via AKL but they can be significantly longer and generally not as comfortable. On 15+ hrs of flight (inc connections) that will rate as important to many customers.

Other routes from Australia such as Canada, USA and Europe face competition from direct routes so have traditionally not been as appealing to the market as readily as EZE or perhaps some of the new destinations such as Vietnam (SGN) are.

A colleague is heading AKL to YYZ (Calgary) on UA via SFO and SEA saving him $250pp v. the AirNZ alternative of AKL-YVR-YYZ. Personally given the extra time taken I'd have sprung for the more direct service but money does talk.

[arc]

C'mon - everybody is entitled to open their pay packet every now and again. Even management have to live

Dont get me wrong... Im not berating anyone. Im making an observation. With the Global outlook looking very shaky for everyone I would be doing the same thing, its the strategic move at this time.

It also signifies that there are situations evolving that everyone is exposed to and the early players/movers might but correct, or they might not. Or they might just be making a solid defensive move to protect what is here and now... as it might all go down hill in the next few months.

You all must have noticed the global doom and gloom thread that has found its way into the public media. USA election on the horizon ( no-one has a positive-outcome prediction for either choice scenario) , European banks looking very shaky, China slowing faster than ever, DOW still trending down, whats next ?


I had a ride on the motorbike last weekend, went down some back country roads... crossed a bridge to find a big roadworks sign... DANGER SLIPS AHEAD. HIGH RISK OF ROAD WASHOUT...

[vin]

^ Yeah agreed, I'm cashed up.. Quite content sitting on the sidelines.

[skid]

Jaa mentioned the competition which is very important, given any flight to EZE will require a connection from Australia to another country. There are sometimes cheaper routing options than Australia to EZE via AKL but they can be significantly longer and generally not as comfortable. On 15+ hrs of flight (inc connections) that will rate as important to many customers.

Other routes from Australia such as Canada, USA and Europe face competition from direct routes so have traditionally not been as appealing to the market as readily as EZE or perhaps some of the new destinations such as Vietnam (SGN) are.

A colleague is heading AKL to YYZ (Calgary) on UA via SFO and SEA saving him $250pp v. the AirNZ alternative of AKL-YVR-YYZ. Personally given the extra time taken I'd have sprung for the more direct service but money does talk.

Its only as good as the Air Canada connection--In my wifes case she would now have to wait 8 hrs for the flight to Montreal--The money saving route is actually quicker for her--even after paying for the transit option in the USA.

[skid]

I still haven't doubled down yet, been waiting and still looking for some signs of stability in price and perhaps another couple of months operating stats. Long term will be the plan when I get the sense of the sell off being over but with high volumes day after day at these levels I am not convinced it wont have a bit more weakness, even the brief jump to 1.92 wasn't the show of strength I had thought....

AIR is out of flavour and sentiment is weak so still sitting back and waiting.

Thats sound logic WD--In spite of the desperate thinly disguised AIR ads we are seeing with monotonous consistency on this site,things are looking decidedly shaky both here and in markets in general....Good time to be prudent

[Mickey]

Thats sound logic WD--In spite of the desperate thinly disguised AIR ads we are seeing with monotonous consistency on this site,things are looking decidedly shaky both here and in markets in general....Good time to be prudent

I'm heeding this advice Skid. Had thought about dipping my toes in but will be patient and wait for some clear sign of an upward trend (hoping to avoid a DCB). My portfolio is below where it was at Brexit so it's time for me exercise some calm and wait for the sun to come back out.

[Nasi Goreng]

This is always a challenge. The only way to tell if a new trend is in place would be for the price to break several levels on the way up. By this time, the SP could be certainly $2+ and then at the point it might be ready for some consolidation. If this happens, where does it go from here?

You could end up wishing you bought at $1.75. On the other hand, if price continues to fall, you might consider yourself a genius for not buying at $1.75 and have an even better opportunity at a lower price.

At some point, some big money will start to get excited at the prospect of huge dividends plus a share price rebound and be tempted in.

These are just my opinions.

[skid]

Dividend payments and share price rebound are 2 separate things

As this comes up often (the myth of div=free money) heres an article on dividends the plus and the minus

http://www.diyinvesting.org/concepts/dividends-free-money

[Nasi Goreng]

I agree that they are two different things but at some point, a stock that you might consider oversold and a stock that is going to pay a +10% dividend is what some would call a great opportunity.

[couta1]

Okay I'm coming out of the kennel to make a comment to balance some of the negative talk. Firstly this share is so cheap presently its almost ridiculous, it's trading at NTA level of $1.76 while the likes of Qantas trades at around 2.7xNTA. Now ask yourself why over the last 3 days the price has not dropped below $1.76 despite an absolute NZX trashing? Perhaps because even a schizophrenic market isn't dumb enough to go below that mark, that may also give those wondering about where the bottom is some clues. Heading back to the kennel for another long sleep.

[RupertBear]

Okay I'm coming out of the kennel to make a comment to balance some of the negative talk. Firstly this share is so cheap presently its almost ridiculous, it's trading at NTA level of $1.76 while the likes of Qantas trades at around 2.7xNTA. Now ask yourself why over the last 3 days the price has not dropped below $1.76 despite an absolute NZX trashing? Perhaps because even a schizophrenic market isn't dumb enough to go below that mark, that may also give those wondering about where the bottom is some clues. Heading back to the kennel for another long sleep.

Welcome back from the kennel, I have missed your take on the current turbulence :)

[BlackPeter]

I agree that they are two different things but at some point, a stock that you might consider oversold and a stock that is going to pay a +10% dividend is what some would call a great opportunity.

Is it really that difficult to understand that the markets don't seem to believe in this amazing dividend being paid in perpetuity? Ignore the markets judgement at your peril.

[winner69]

Is it really that difficult to understand that the markets don't seem to believe in this amazing dividend being paid in perpetuity? Ignore the markets judgement at your peril.

That Dividend Discount Model has stood test of time

Simplified version using 20 cent dividend and 0% growth rate in perpetuity and required return 11% constant cost of equity capital (high for these times?)

Answer is $1.81

Hmm - maybe not too difficult to understand at all

[blackcap]

Is it really that difficult to understand that the markets don't seem to believe in this amazing dividend being paid in perpetuity? Ignore the markets judgement at your peril.

I think a lot of posters here think that this 35 cent dividend is going to be there forever. The market is saying that it will not be and I think I tend to agree with the market on this one. From memory SPK when it was TEL payed a 44 cent annual dividend when the Sp was $9.50 plus. If you invested then (back in 2000 odd) you would still be in the red and waiting a long time if ever to get your money back. I think once they did hit problems soon after (TEL) cut the dividend drastically and even stopped for a bit.
AIR the same. They can pay the dividend this year, maybe next, but if competition heats up, and it looks like it already has, and if profits fall or disappear totally I can almost guarantee the dividend will be reduced and or cut out completely.
But what do I know, I am not an investor in AIR, do prefer companies that do pay sustainable growing dividends, just not convinced the AIR one is sustainable. THat said $1.75 odd may be an ok price.

[skid]

Okay I'm coming out of the kennel to make a comment to balance some of the negative talk. Firstly this share is so cheap presently its almost ridiculous, it's trading at NTA level of $1.76 while the likes of Qantas trades at around 2.7xNTA. Now ask yourself why over the last 3 days the price has not dropped below $1.76 despite an absolute NZX trashing? Perhaps because even a schizophrenic market isn't dumb enough to go below that mark, that may also give those wondering about where the bottom is some clues. Heading back to the kennel for another long sleep.

Thats exactly the same argument made for 1.80---Of course it could bounce,but lower lows and lower highs is not a good sign,even if some interpret it as horribly and ridiculously oversold----You of all people should know how ''dumb'' the market can get.
But the NTA facts are a refreshing change from unsubstantiated projections.
Of course some are going to get frustrated when responding to a dropping SP,including those who adopted a cavalier ,''winner takes all'' approach.
For every frustration there appears to be similar posts urging those to jump in ''boots and all'' so seems fair imo. I hope you haven't jinxed that 1.76 (Geez ,Im starting to be superstitious with this puppy):)

[Snow Leopard]

Okay I'm coming out of the kennel to make a comment to balance some of the negative talk. Firstly this share is so cheap presently its almost ridiculous, it's trading at NTA level of $1.76 while the likes of Qantas trades at around 2.7xNTA. Now ask yourself why over the last 3 days the price has not dropped below $1.76 despite an absolute NZX trashing? Perhaps because even a schizophrenic market isn't dumb enough to go below that mark, that may also give those wondering about where the bottom is some clues. Heading back to the kennel for another long sleep.

NTA was $1.764 at end of year but since then they have very kindly given you $0.35 of it.
We will assume accumulated after tax profits of $0.087 to date for this year which would give a current NTA of

$1.501

Not that current NTA is that important, it is all about the future outlook and currently the market is not happy.
One day there will be a bottom:

this may be it

or

this may not be it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[mondograss]

I think a lot of posters here think that this 35 cent dividend is going to be there forever. The market is saying that it will not be and I think I tend to agree with the market on this one. From memory SPK when it was TEL payed a 44 cent annual dividend when the Sp was $9.50 plus. If you invested then (back in 2000 odd) you would still be in the red and waiting a long time if ever to get your money back. I think once they did hit problems soon after (TEL) cut the dividend drastically and even stopped for a bit.
AIR the same. They can pay the dividend this year, maybe next, but if competition heats up, and it looks like it already has, and if profits fall or disappear totally I can almost guarantee the dividend will be reduced and or cut out completely.
But what do I know, I am not an investor in AIR, do prefer companies that do pay sustainable growing dividends, just not convinced the AIR one is sustainable. THat said $1.75 odd may be an ok price.

AIR is forecasting a 20c ongoing dividend, not a 35c dividend. And didn't TEL tank on the back of the dotcom bubble followed by a new Telecommunications Act, followed by the full break up some years later? I'm not sure it's fair comparing apples with oranges.

AIR has positioned itself well, done a fleet renewal, opened some good new routes, is expecting some serious free cash-flow and all-in-all seems to be coping pretty well with unprecedented competition albeit in a period of very low fuel prices. That competition may well last long term, but I suspect it will eventually crowd itself out to a certain extent and as fuel prices rise and margins tighten it's the competitors that will drop away first, not the local player.

[Beagle]

I felt sorry for the orange stripy tabby so gave it some of my dogs spare food and it seems to have worked well. It has put on some weight but my dogs are still keen to bite it hard...anyway enough of my domestic pet situation, (my daughter did move out of our flat and left an orange stripy tabby)...believe it or not.

I have the ex divvy NTA at an estimated / projected NTA of $1.53 as at 31/10/16.

Of course NTA has very little to do with it, (QAN is $1.20), unless one is buying below NTA which time has proved to be a very worthwhile long term strategy so I have bucketful's ready to do a Couta1 if the SP ever trades at a meaningful discount to NTA. The negativity is well and truly overdone on here and I tire of it and know the institutions, (top 20 shareholders own 86% of the stock) are really the ones that control the price so endless debate on here matters for basically nothing.

I am happy to hold with seatbelt firmly fastened and I think management are FAR better placed to know what's a sustainable dividend than some of the critics on here.... especially those who hold a short position and a vested interest in talking it down.

[blackcap]

AIR is forecasting a 20c ongoing dividend, not a 35c dividend. And didn't TEL tank on the back of the dotcom bubble followed by a new Telecommunications Act, followed by the full break up some years later? I'm not sure it's fair comparing apples with oranges.

AIR has positioned itself well, done a fleet renewal, opened some good new routes, is expecting some serious free cash-flow and all-in-all seems to be coping pretty well with unprecedented competition albeit in a period of very low fuel prices. That competition may well last long term, but I suspect it will eventually crowd itself out to a certain extent and as fuel prices rise and margins tighten it's the competitors that will drop away first, not the local player.

Fair call on the 20 cent dividend. Yes TEL probably did have those problems you mention. My point is that things happen and what once seemed like a regular div paying stock suddenly becomes on that does not pay divs. Does not take long. Not saying AIR are going to do that, just that do not take this forward dividend as gospel. Thats all.