AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

Since institutions own most of the stock and all this talk of AIR matters for basically nothing ..I am left to ponder what is the relevance between you feeding your cat,dog food ,and Couta going back to his kennel :).....Welcome back both of you --It aint been the same without you:)

[percy]

Since institutions own most of the stock and all this talk of AIR matters for basically nothing ..I am left to ponder what is the relevance between you feeding your cat,dog food ,and Couta going back to his kennel :).....Welcome back both of you --It aint been the same without you:)

I would guess that Sharetrader members, together with visitors own, between 6mil to 12 mil AIR shares.
So all "this talk" maybe of relevance.
I also think Roger has got the best deal,getting to keep the cat.!
A real win/win situation...lol.

[Baa_Baa]

Seems to be good support here, 1.7m volume is reasonable and whole day trading around VWAP $1.77 and $463k changing hands after 5pm, also at VWAP. It is a solid technical support and psychological support being the 61.8% fib retrace and the Oct 16 2014 Low (price support) from the previous 4-year rising trend-line.

[skid]

You mentioned (on the TA thread)that 1.80-1.75 seems like pretty good support,but below that is any ones guess. It would be interesting to hear further debate on that thread.(That 1.80 looked pretty iron clad to me -but what do I know)
Ive often wondered how outside markets(which of course ,have a chart of their own)affect one particular share(and its chart)
US markets are in the red ,but only just,but airline index is 1.4% down (?)Probably no match for a strong resistance?

Disc-Watching and learning(nothing to gain or lose)

[axe]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/85127093/Jetstar-flight-cancellations-disrupt-hundreds-as-school-holidays-end

[iceman]

In Sydney over the weekend and note AIR is running their new TV ad pretty hard. Very interesting to hear that 20% of passengers to Houston and 40% to Buenos Aires are Australians. This ad is good marketing.
I still believe AIR can do the same with Chinese travellers to South America, get them to travel via NZ

[see weed]

Year low and two year low has been hit. Where to from here short term? Maybe 1.80s and 1.90s by chrisy. Have finished my plan B action and av. price is now 1.796c, now ready for takeoff:t_up:.

[babymonster]

Mr Chairman bought some more.. good man...

[Nasi Goreng]

Year low and two year low has been hit. Where to from here short term? Maybe 1.80s and 1.90s by chrisy. Have finished my plan B action and av. price is now 1.796c, now ready for takeoff:t_up:.

good luck. It certainly looks and feels like a bottom, and probably would not surprise many if it turns out to be a bottom. I think there is potential for it get above $2 by end of year, a bit of optimism before earnings release and a good result for 1st half will go down well but thats a bit of a way off yet.

[BC_Doc]

Sums up my ride on AIR these last few months :t_up:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11725957

[couta1]

Sums up my ride on AIR these last few months :t_up:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11725957 Yep if you can't handle plenty of turbulence and don't have good forward vision then you shouldn't own this stock, it really is that simple.

[Antipodean]

Sums up my ride on AIR these last few months :t_up:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11725957

This is why you don't ignore the advice to always have your belt on when flying. Shame for the staff who cannot do this and suffer the consequences - hope they are okay. Clear air and/or normal turbulence is a fact of life for flying.

[sb9]

Mr Chairman bought some more.. good man...

Mr Carter is well respected among NZ corporate and he's on board of some great companies. Good to see his vote of confidence in AIR.

[Snow Leopard]

Mr Chairman bought some more.. good man...

A man who believes in $1.78

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Mr Carter is well respected among NZ corporate and he's on board of some great companies. Good to see his vote of confidence in AIR.

Wonder whether he'll reinvest his $30,000 on bond money when it matures in November

[winner69]

Sums up my ride on AIR these last few months :t_up:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11725957

Jeez 2 crew with critical injuries - hope they come right soon

[winner69]

At least the Strategy and Revenue guys haven't hocked off the 580,000 shares between them they got today
Shows confidence - waiting fora better price. They good traders those guys

[macduffy]

Jeez 2 crew with critical injuries - hope they come right soon

Report may have been over-egged by passenger's report. "Minor injuries" according to the airline.

[oldtech]

Share price hasn't budged today from 1.80, steadiest it's been for while. :)

[bung5]

Share price hasn't budged today from 1.80, steadiest it's been for while. :)

MACD crossed. Could this be the turning point?

[workingdad]

I'm getting closer to backing up the truck..... Couta would understand my priorities having just dropped 10k on some life ski passes for mt ruapehu so perhaps a little less itchy on the trigger finger for the minute.

[stoploss]

I'm getting closer to backing up the truck..... Couta would understand my priorities having just dropped 10k on some life ski passes for mt ruapehu so perhaps a little less itchy on the trigger finger for the minute.

snap, my air nz divi funded one for me , something to pass on to my daughter, we could get 35 years out of it , climate, volcano,health permitting .......

[couta1]

I'm getting closer to backing up the truck..... Couta would understand my priorities having just dropped 10k on some life ski passes for mt ruapehu so perhaps a little less itchy on the trigger finger for the minute. Nice one wd, my endearment of late to ski the South Island fields stopped me from buying one plus being the only snow sports lover in the family at this point in time. My last Air divvy will pay for a few life times worth of skiing but I just need to get back to $2.29 to really enjoy that fact, my wife is helping by flying to the S.I at least once every week of the year now in her new job.

[workingdad]

Nice one wd, my endearment of late to ski the South Island fields stopped me from buying one plus being the only snow sports lover in the family at this point in time. My last Air divvy will pay for a few life times worth of skiing but I just need to get back to $2.29 to really enjoy that fact, my wife is helping by flying to the S.I at least once every week of the year now in her new job.

Part of it for us was being able to transfer to the kids in 10 years time otherwise I wouldn't have worried either. What a great wife mate, those queenstown fields be seeing a bit of you then. I really enjoyed Cardrona - pity I wasn't there longer and we could have done a few runs, another time.

Awesome Stoploss, maybe meet you on the pitch next year :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Just done my part for you guys.....booked PE return to HK for $2,400.

[Snow Leopard]

Just done my part for you guys.....booked PE return to HK for $2,400.

Should have doubled up to Business Class if you really wanted to help them :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[workingdad]

I'm taking the family to aussie next month and had a free upgrade to use so put in for the 'one up' for the wife and three kids so definitely doing my part :p

[bung5]

offtopic: are you not worried about ruapehu ski operator going into receivership? I checked out the last 5 years annual report and it seem they are struggling with declining numbers year on year.
Balance sheet looks healthy currently but they got some big capex required that they been putting off for years.

[workingdad]

offtopic: are you not worried about ruapehu ski operator going into receivership? I checked out the last 5 years annual report and it seem they are struggling with declining numbers year on year.
Balance sheet looks healthy currently but they got some big capex required that they been putting off for years.

Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some......

[winner69]

Back on topic - I think AIR will close at $1.78 today

[couta1]

Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some...... With near two thirds of the NZ population living in the NI they have the numbers, but the company let's itself down on many levels including its overpaid incompetent board. The aim now is to attract more overseas snow sports lovers to the mountain as an alternative to the likes of Q/town but that's a tough ask due to the isolation of the place, lack of amenities in the area etc. Any extra tourists they can attract will no doubt be good for Air though.

[winner69]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly

[Arbroath]

Topped up at $1.79 yesterday for an ave now of $2.10. I see them maintaining the 20c divi for at least the next 2 years - don't think anyone can guarantee anything beyond then but Air with there young fleet and high operating cashflow (low capex) from FY18/19 is better placed than most, if not all, their competitors to compete especially if Oil goes back to US70-80 a barrell.

[couta1]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly The current bargin SP has factored in the bottom end of the guidance range and just about every other negative as well IMO.

[Beagle]

Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"

Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it

Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly

Yes as discussed by e.mail that's definitely the risk. Downgrades tend to come in three's. We had the downgrade in May at the so called investor day briefing, the official downgrade at the time of the annual result with a wide range, (far better than no range as to the best of my knowledge neither VAH or QAN are brave enough to even issue a forecast or a range,.... haven't looked recently so don't take that as gospel), but the risk is definitely there of an indication towards one end of the range or the other and I think looking at the heat of the competition lately and pricing the risk is to the downside. In recent weeks I have downgraded my thinking from the mid point of the forecast range $500m where the analysts are at to the lower end.


The current bargin SP has factored in the bottom end of the guidance range and just about every other negative as well IMO.

I tend to agree with you mate. As noted above consensus analyst view is just on $500m before tax and their view is the shares are worth $2.20 if they can hit that target.
I think its clear the market thinks this is unlikely at this point, hence the current price.

I don't think the "opening specials" by new entrants will last indefinitely so FY17 or FY18 could be the bottom of this cycle.

[skid]

Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some......

You have come up with some pretty good reasons (add an eruption or personal injury)to perhaps be a bit careful with a lifetime pass--How many things have you purchased that are still the same after say 20yrs? The alternative is seasons passes as you go,still doesnt rule out skiing--I can think of several prominent ski fields that have changed ownership (in Canada where my daughters went)

[Beagle]

Off topic but yeah I certainly think that personal injury is a huge risk with skiing. No saying for sure from one season to another, (for some of us middle aged folk) from one day to another whether you'll be good to go again. The future is uncertain, no fate but what we make...(with apologies to the Terminator series of films).
Flying to Queenstown on Air New Zealand and skiing there is one of life's greatest pleasures...hope my hip improves so I can do it next winter.

[iceman]

Off topic but yeah I certainly think that personal injury is a huge risk with skiing. No saying for sure from one season to another, (for some of us middle aged folk) from one day to another whether you'll be good to go again. The future is uncertain, no fate but what we make...(with apologies to the Terminator series of films).
Flying to Queenstown on Air New Zealand and skiing there is one of life's greatest pleasures...hope my hip improves so I can do it next winter.

Or you could take a cheap Jetstar flight to Nelson and go up to Rainbow and stop at Tahunanui beach on the way home (see photos attached). Sorry Rog, couldn't help myself and stay off topic :-)83538354

[Beagle]

Or you could take a cheap Jettar flight to Nelson and go up to Rainboow and stop at Tahunanui each on the way home (see photos attached). Sorry Rog, couldn't help myself and stay off topic :-)83538354

As long as you don't mind playing Russian Roulette as to whether the flight actually happens or not :)

Actually in all seriousness the incident at Wellington where about 700 people were left stranded really does beg the question of what's acceptable business practice and what's not.
Surely a well run airline has contingency plans in place for crew sickness ? Crew sickness is not a strange or unusual event, its not an Act of God or unusual phenomenon.
Many of us understand standard deviations from the norm. To what extent should an airline have reserve staff to cope with unusually high standard deviations from normal level's of sickness ?
I think this is quite an interesting discussion point. Chatting with a leading boat manufacturer's owner recently he told me the level of reliability to / from Napier of Jetstar's "service" had raised a lot of eyebrows in the business community there. His feedback, (he travels a lot within N.Z.) is if you're travelling on business the decision on which airline to fly is a complete no brainer and if you're travelling on leisure and choose Jetstar then you'd better be sure you take travel insurance.

He told me he thinks Jetstar are running an absolute bare bones service with very minimal crew and spare parts back up and support and the likelihood of actually getting to your destination and on time is lower than what many people find to be acceptable.

[skid]

As long as you don't mind playing Russian Roulette as to whether the flight actually happens or not :)

Actually in all seriousness the incident at Wellington where about 700 people were left stranded really does beg the question of what's acceptable business practice and what's not.
Surely a well run airline has contingency plans in place for crew sickness ? Crew sickness is not a strange or unusual event, its not an Act of God or unusual phenomenon.
Many of us understand standard deviations from the norm. To what extent should an airline have reserve staff to cope with unusually high standard deviations from normal level's of sickness ?
I think this is quite an interesting discussion point. Chatting with a leading boat manufacturer's owner recently he told me the level of reliability to from Napier of Jetstar's "service" had raised a lot of eyebrows in the business community there. His feedback, (he travels a lot within N.Z.) is if you're travelling on business the decision on which airline to fly is a complete no brainer and if you're travelling on leisure and choose Jetstar then you'd better be sure you take travel insurance.

He told me he thinks Jetstar are running an absolute bare bones service with very minimal crew and spare parts back up and support and the likelihood of actually getting to your destination and on time is lower than what many people find to be acceptable.

Just looking at the stats,Jetstar have slipped a bit of late but the 2 airlines have fluctuated alot over the years.Some periods Jetstar has better stats--so a blanket statement like that is probably a tad unfair. New stats for this year are out in Jan.
I would imagine business passengers will choose AIR anyway as you get a drink etc.--Im not sure Jetstar is aiming at the business customers anyway in terms of priority. Probably more all those who want to get from A to B at a cheaper price.

[couta1]

Just looking at the stats,Jetstar have slipped a bit of late but the 2 airlines have fluctuated alot over the years.Some periods Jetstar has better stats--so a blanket statement like that is probably a tad unfair. New stats for this year are out in Jan.
I would imagine business passengers will choose AIR anyway as you get a drink etc.--Im not sure Jetstar is aiming at the business customers anyway in terms of priority. Probably more all those who want to get from A to B at a cheaper price. The reality for Jetcattle is starting to hit home of late due to the scale of their operation in NZ and lack of backup resources when things go pear shaped in comparison to Air. The cheap flights are not so cheap by the time you add in that extra piece of luggage and a set of skis etc, just an urban myth really.

[skid]

The reality for Jetcattle is starting to hit home of late due to the scale of their operation in NZ and lack of backup resources when things go pear shaped in comparison to Air. The cheap flights are not so cheap by the time you add in that extra piece of luggage and a set of skis etc, just an urban myth really.

Stats out in Jan

[Beagle]

Not to forget a not inconsiderable $26 per sector extra if you want seats with reasonable legroom rather than their sardine can like 29 inch pitch seats on their A320's.

[see weed]

Surely it should have been Bruce the Goose?

So $1.76 is the new $1.78

Onwards and whicheverwaywards

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I think $1.77 is the new $1.78, and as time goes on $1.80 will be the new $1.76:D. Just a waiting game now.

[Raz]

With near two thirds of the NZ population living in the NI they have the numbers, but the company let's itself down on many levels including its overpaid incompetent board. The aim now is to attract more overseas snow sports lovers to the mountain as an alternative to the likes of Q/town but that's a tough ask due to the isolation of the place, lack of amenities in the area etc. Any extra tourists they can attract will no doubt be good for Air though.

NI participation in skiing is lousy, most consider a day out at sport is going to a cafe:-) Being serious..NZ participation has been static and going backwards and that is why SkiNZ under Paul is innovative with their learn to ski programs, packages and the SI simply has better fields. Still if it was not for Queenstown and its other activities plus Australians from Victoria the ski industry would not be sustainable..so what chance do they have....

[Raz]

Just looking at the stats,Jetstar have slipped a bit of late but the 2 airlines have fluctuated alot over the years.Some periods Jetstar has better stats--so a blanket statement like that is probably a tad unfair. New stats for this year are out in Jan.
I would imagine business passengers will choose AIR anyway as you get a drink etc.--Im not sure Jetstar is aiming at the business customers anyway in terms of priority. Probably more all those who want to get from A to B at a cheaper price.

Went on my first jetstar flight for the first time after WOW, the price difference was nearly $300 each ..wellington- chch..the plane was dirty as and after having a chat with the flight crew they worked really hard..they do international and domestic concurrently, fiji, then Brisbane then wellington- chch..they were enjoying a shorter flight for a change. Certainly different feel to air..not planning on going with them again in a hurry..still for $900 at least it was a jet rather than the turbo prop.

[workingdad]

NI participation in skiing is lousy, most consider a day out at sport is going to a cafe:-) Being serious..NZ participation has been static and going backwards and that is why SkiNZ under Paul is innovative with their learn to ski programs, packages and the SI simply has better fields. Still if it was not for Queenstown and its other activities plus Australians from Victoria the ski industry would not be sustainable..so what chance do they have....

I don't think the SI fields are necessarily better, I find Turoa and Whakapapa are excellent, technically challenging, caters to a wide range of abilities and with additional chair lifts recently and more in the works servicing is getting better also. Season up here is longer due to the higher elevation and early bird passes make it a good price for those getting a season pass with kids up to the age of 10 only having to pay $55 for a season pass so as a family its pretty reasonable, we don't have to drive up gravel roads to get to the car parks either. Some may have different opinions but from a purely ski's on the snow perspective (pipes and parks aside) I'm pretty happy with what we have.

[Beagle]

Turoa is a nice quaint little township and good ski field but she's a fairly long drive from Auckland so the last time I bothered was 2002. AIR travel so cheap and convenient these days it makes Queenstown a compelling proposition.

[Raz]

I don't think the SI fields are necessarily better, I find Turoa and Whakapapa are excellent, technically challenging, caters to a wide range of abilities and with additional chair lifts recently and more in the works servicing is getting better also. Season up here is longer due to the higher elevation and early bird passes make it a good price for those getting a season pass with kids up to the age of 10 only having to pay $55 for a season pass so as a family its pretty reasonable, we don't have to drive up gravel roads to get to the car parks either. Some may have different opinions but from a purely ski's on the snow perspective (pipes and parks aside) I'm pretty happy with what we have.

haha I'm happy your happy..not the place to debate it...interesting the market doesn't agree with you:-)

[couta1]

I can change the thread title to "NZ Skiing" and move it to the off-topic section if that is what people want. I think that should read and move it to the off-piste section.

[Beagle]

Went on my first jetstar flight for the first time after WOW, the price difference was nearly $300 each ..wellington- chch..the plane was dirty as and after having a chat with the flight crew they worked really hard..they do international and domestic concurrently, fiji, then Brisbane then wellington- chch..they were enjoying a shorter flight for a change. Certainly different feel to air..not planning on going with them again in a hurry..still for $900 at least it was a jet rather than the turbo prop.

Would have given you about enough extra time to wash your hands thoroughly after the flight :) Agree its a totally different feel. AIR aircraft feel a lot more modern, clean and tidy. Did you notice the 29 inch seat pitch on the Jetstar flight ? I flew them once to Chrischurch, the pilot had to do a go around on a perfectly clear fine windless morning, couldn't land at first attempt, go figure ? and I struggled to walk from the pain in my kneecaps from having them rammed so hard against the seat in front. Never again at any price. If I don't like AIR's price for a domestic flight I'll re-book for another date, take the Mercedes or take the flight anyway if someone else is paying :)

[skid]

Would have given you about enough extra time to wash your hands thoroughly after the flight :) Agree its a totally different feel. AIR aircraft feel a lot more modern, clean and tidy. Did you notice the 29 inch seat pitch on the Jetstar flight ? I flew them once to Chrischurch, the pilot had to do a go around on a perfectly clear fine windless morning, couldn't land at first attempt, go figure ? and I struggled to walk from the pain in my kneecaps from having them rammed so hard against the seat in front. Never again at any price. If I don't like AIR's price for a domestic flight I'll re-book for another date, take the Mercedes or take the flight anyway if someone else is paying :)

Sounds like we have basic agreement one is a bit more comfortable and one is cheaper(for the most part in both cases)--guess its which of those attracts the masses that is the question.

OK Ill bite--What in the world is ''off -piste section''(coutts)?

[Raz]

Would have given you about enough extra time to wash your hands thoroughly after the flight :) Agree its a totally different feel. AIR aircraft feel a lot more modern, clean and tidy. Did you notice the 29 inch seat pitch on the Jetstar flight ? I flew them once to Chrischurch, the pilot had to do a go around on a perfectly clear fine windless morning, couldn't land at first attempt, go figure ? and I struggled to walk from the pain in my kneecaps from having them rammed so hard against the seat in front. Never again at any price. If I don't like AIR's price for a domestic flight I'll re-book for another date, take the Mercedes or take the flight anyway if someone else is paying :)

Always at the front of the plane on AIR, was also upfront on jetstar, second row, tighter than AIR however acceptable. Just enough room, i am 185cm so reasonably tall.


The 300$ cheaper each was in the context of booking so late...

ps Chch toilets may be grubber than jetstar planes thou...:-)

[see weed]

AIR sp has a stronger feel to it today, or is it just another Claytons.

[couta1]

Sounds like we have basic agreement one is a bit more comfortable and one is cheaper(for the most part in both cases)--guess its which of those attracts the masses that is the question.

OK Ill bite--What in the world is ''off -piste section''(coutts)? Off-piste has nothing to do with missing the toilet seat whilst in transit but refers to skiing on unmarked or unpatrolled areas either inside or outside a ski resorts boundaries so was a kinda play on words yet relevant to STMods post in relation to the off-topic section of the forum, hope that helps.:cool:

[couta1]

Monthly stats are out, look solid enough to me, capacity increase on domestic due to AKL to Q/town route.(Todays ski talk relevant aye)

[Beagle]

Stat's look reasonable to me but the headline should have read as above.

Note 3 to the Fy16 accounts shows AIR's remaining stake of just under 103m shares was revalued down to A20.5 cps as at balance date. They subsequently subscribed for their entitlement to the cash issue for another ~ $103m shares at $A21 cps so their stake would have cost / been valued at just on $A42.7m. Sold as noted in the monthly operating stat's for $A65.7m a profit of ~ $A23m by my calculations.
Quick back of the envelope check to see if this looks reasonable. Profit was ~ 54% above cost / book value of $A20.75 cps so that makes the sale price A31.95 cps which is close to what they sold the main tranche earlier for @ $33 cps so the profit on sale looks like a very good outcome to me considering the revised shareholding was diluted by the cash issue at 21 cps. Very nice sale at a very nice profit !

They will take this profit "above the line" as per associate company movement / realisation of movement in valuation so that's some $24.5m Kiwi of profit to help towards my revised target of $475m before tax for FY16 but perhaps more importantly this represents the final cleansing of this Ansett Mk2 initiated by former management from AIR's books and draws this unhappy matter to a conclusion.

I applaud AIR's current directors and senior management for having the courage to cleanse AIR of this "investment" which I remain of the view is systemically flawed because of its business model of paying substantial royalties to Sir Richard Branson and substantial bonus's and grossly excessive monetary compensation to senior pilots and management in a company that has shown an absolutely appalling history of lack of profitability.

The only people who have done well out of Virgin, in order are Sir Richard Branson, Senior management, senior flight crew, suppliers and various other parties including airline code share partners. For minority shareholders VAH has been a truly shocking investment and if they can't make money last year when operating conditions for airlines were the most favourable in half a century, when will they...

Reasonable stat's and reasonable yield considering the low fuel price. On track to meet profit guidance within the companies indicated range I'd say.

Profit on sale of VAH adds 2.2 cps to NTA of AIR by my calculations and about $70m Kiwi to the bank account and they still have code share flight arrangements with VAH so a win all round !
Dividend looking safer now :)

[winner69]

Those stats are a big improvement on the August numbers.

Might have to say what will happen to the share price if Christopher comes out and says 'We expect FY17 Operating Earnings to be at the top end of our previous stated guidance of $400m to $600m'

[see weed]

Those stats are a big improvement on the August numbers.

Might have to say what will happen to the share price if Christopher comes out and says 'We expect FY17 Operating Earnings to be at the top end of our previous stated guidance of $400m to $600m'
Back to +$2 by years end with that announcement. Been topping up on close everyday for last week;).

[sb9]

Those stats are a big improvement on the August numbers.

Might have to say what will happen to the share price if Christopher comes out and says 'We expect FY17 Operating Earnings to be at the top end of our previous stated guidance of $400m to $600m'

I think this time around they're playing the game of "under promise and over deliver"...hence the rhetoric of lower earnings expectation in their recent commentary.

[Snow Leopard]

Does not look promising does it?

So there is a little tolerance in the figures due to rounding but here is what we have.

Short Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%

Long Haul Year To Date Revenue Year on Year:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug 98.62% << worrying - if you were not expecting it.

Still 10 months to go and anything can happen - we just hope it doesn't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Financial Year to Date (3 months) Year on Year Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%

Long Haul:
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you.

Just out of interest I note the projected dividend yield at $1.78 based on 20 cps fully imputed (20 / 0.72) / 178 = 15.6% gross. I think we've debated whether this projected dividend yield is sustainable enough already for people to make their own mind up.

[see weed]

Stat's look reasonable to me but the headline should have read as above.

Note 3 to the Fy16 accounts shows AIR's remaining stake of just under 103m shares was revalued down to A20.5 cps as at balance date. They subsequently subscribed for their entitlement to the cash issue for another ~ $103m shares at $A21 cps so their stake would have cost / been valued at just on $A42.7m. Sold as noted in the monthly operating stat's for $A65.7m a profit of ~ $A23m by my calculations.
Quick back of the envelope check to see if this looks reasonable. Profit was ~ 54% above cost / book value of $A20.75 cps so that makes the sale price A31.95 cps which is close to what they sold the main tranche earlier for @ $33 cps so the profit on sale looks like a very good outcome to me considering the revised shareholding was diluted by the cash issue at 21 cps. Very nice sale at a very nice profit !

They will take this profit "above the line" as per associate company movement / realisation of movement in valuation so that's some $24.5m Kiwi of profit to help towards my revised target of $475m before tax for FY16 but perhaps more importantly this represents the final cleansing of this Ansett Mk2 initiated by former management from AIR's books and draws this unhappy matter to a conclusion.

I applaud AIR's current directors and senior management for having the courage to cleanse AIR of this "investment" which I remain of the view is systemically flawed because of its business model of paying substantial royalties to Sir Richard Branson and substantial bonus's and grossly excessive monetary compensation to senior pilots and management in a company that has shown an absolutely appalling history of lack of profitability.

The only people who have done well out of Virgin, in order are Sir Richard Branson, Senior management, senior flight crew, suppliers and various other parties including airline code share partners. For minority shareholders VAH has been a truly shocking investment and if they can't make money last year when operating conditions for airlines were the most favourable in half a century, when will they...

Reasonable stat's and reasonable yield considering the low fuel price. On track to meet profit guidance within the companies indicated range I'd say.

Profit on sale of VAH adds 2.2 cps to NTA of AIR by my calculations and about $70m Kiwi to the bank account and they still have code share flight arrangements with VAH so a win all round !
Dividend looking safer now :)
What was that div yld again? was it 12% or 15% all the way to the bank:).

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you. Far too boring mate, I prefer to ride the Aircoaster. PS-Held some of the current bonds a few years ago.

[Beagle]

What was that div yld again? was it 12% or 15% all the way to the bank:).

See above, 15.6% gross.


Far too boring mate, I prefer to ride the Aircoaster. PS-Held some of the current bonds a few years ago.

Even though this is a very strong company that will undoubtedly be around in another 76 years time long after we're pushing up daises I can't see the logic in investing in 6 year bonds at 4.1% when we are so close to the bottom of the interest rate cycle. On the other hand, like you mate, I'd like to think we're somewhere near the bottom of the rollercoaster that is AIR's SP.

[skid]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245822.pdf

For those that prefer the relative safety of bonds this might be something that interests you.

Just out of interest I note the projected dividend yield at $1.78 based on 20 cps fully imputed (20 / 0.72) / 178 = 15.6% gross. I think we've debated whether this projected dividend yield is sustainable enough already for people to make their own mind up.

Smoke and Mirrors?? Your the accountant--Hows the last dividend looking in terms of AIR portfolio value? Because it looks to me like the market has devalued the share accordingly.That debate seems to have been discarded.
If AIR perform then that is fair enough -but buying for dividend?(that only works if the SP makes up the difference)---The share price should ''earn'' the dividend--not the other way around. IMO

[Beagle]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative.

[bung5]

They should of gone down the same path as Chorus and issue euro bonds at 1.1% interest

[couta1]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative. Yep and those others can also have a debate with the 6 analysts who have a consensus average divvy of 19.66c over the next 3 years, after that with lower Capex there's no reason why that level of divvy can't continue. I still can't find a better value share on the NZX currently, look forward to the others showing me better alternatives.

[skid]

Post dividend SP has disappointed thus far, no question about that but I think you're drawing a very long bow somewhat implying all future dividends will be met with permanent SP decreases.

I think we've gone around this mulberry bush enough and thrashed the "can they continue to pay 20 cps per annum in dividends" to death but if others want to debate it further that's their prerogative.

No ,Im not trying to draw that bow at all--I have no idea if it will happen again---what Im saying is that you cant imply that the dividend will be free and clear as in free money-(it didnt happen this time,so by definition its not a given next time- thats all. I dont think it can be used as ''bait'' for buying shares.---Thats not to say that some of it ,or even all of it wont be free and clear next time...maybe,maybe not........It sure is a baffling share though aint it?
I thinkm its all about performance and market sentiment now...the rest will follow.

There are so many surprises I think you have to look at TA--Its just not behaving in terms of fundamentals.

[Nasi Goreng]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?

[Cool Bear]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?
hopefully $2. I am fast running out of fingers. All those falling knives.

[winner69]

Where to next? $1.50 or $2?

Sicklical stocks often behave very orderly.

Bear in mind the bottom of the last 2 cycles have been sub $1. The way true sicklicals behave this is again possible

Sicklicals can cycle upwards so maybe not quite this bad this time --- but sub $1.50 is on the cards

Sicklicals (esp airlines) defy logic sometimes



Promise not to repost that chart that haunts/fascinates me ....and would be starting to haunt some of you

[Beagle]

No ,Im not trying to draw that bow at all--I have no idea if it will happen again---what Im saying is that you cant imply that the dividend will be free and clear as in free money-(it didnt happen this time,so by definition its not a given next time- thats all. I dont think it can be used as ''bait'' for buying shares.---Thats not to say that some of it ,or even all of it wont be free and clear next time...maybe,maybe not........It sure is a baffling share though aint it?
I thinkm its all about performance and market sentiment now...the rest will follow.

There are so many surprises I think you have to look at TA--Its just not behaving in terms of fundamentals.

I'm investing for the long run Skid, 5 years + Management are confident that the company can pay a sustainable dividend of 20 cps per annum. Management in my view are credible, they have been credible in the last few years with their forecasts. Where the SP goes over the long run in my view is a separate matter from any consideration of whether they can or can't pay 20 cps per annum. The consensus view of 6 professional analysts is the stock is worth $2.20 and the consensus view of those analysts is the company can afford to pay 20 cps for the foreseeable future.
The capex holiday after FY19 reinforces my belief that this is a good long term dividend payer. I get it that many people are disappointed that the SP came down in line with the dividend paid this time.

Dividend stripping usually works, I have never once said it always works. The market is clearly disappointed to see executives continuing to treat their incentive shares as an ATM machine.
I'll leave it at that.

[Nasi Goreng]

I think it needs another capitulation day, there was one on the last leg down pre dividend which got it to around the $2.02 area from memory. Another 2-3% drop in a day and the sharks may not be able to contain themselves.

[Zaphod]

Sicklical stocks often behave very orderly.

Bear in mind the bottom of the last 2 cycles have been sub $1. The way true sicklicals behave this is again possible

Sicklicals can cycle upwards so maybe not quite this bad this time --- but sub $1.50 is on the cards

Sicklicals (esp airlines) defy logic sometimes



Promise not to repost that chart that haunts/fascinates me ....and would be starting to haunt some of you

Yes, it's very much a "sicklical" stock at the moment! Postiviely anemic unfortunately.

[skid]

I'm investing for the long run Skid, 5 years + Management are confident that the company can pay a sustainable dividend of 20 cps per annum. Management in my view are credible, they have been credible in the last few years with their forecasts. Where the SP goes over the long run in my view is a separate matter from any consideration of whether they can or can't pay 20 cps per annum. The consensus view of 6 professional analysts is the stock is worth $2.20 and the consensus view of those analysts is the company can afford to pay 20 cps for the foreseeable future.
The capex holiday after FY19 reinforces my belief that this is a good long term dividend payer. I get it that many people are disappointed that the SP came down in line with the dividend paid this time.

Dividend stripping usually works, I have never once said it always works. The market is clearly disappointed to see executives continuing to treat their incentive shares as an ATM machine.
I'll leave it at that.

Fair enough--I was'nt really doubting the amount you forecast for divi-----Youd think there would be a better way for management to get fed--like a bonus at divi time or something

[see weed]

As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping up at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715;).

[Snow Leopard]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/ff/9b/53/ff9b53428a701923e97642abce5c91c1.jpg

this is too scary to watch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[King1212]

As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715;).

way to go see weed...!

[skid]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/ff/9b/53/ff9b53428a701923e97642abce5c91c1.jpg

this is too scary to watch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

What makes it even worse is that I think that is the very one Trump was referring to:scared:

[skid]

As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping up at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715;).

I keep waiting for you to run out of money SW:)----PS that little wink reminds me of the old DIL thread;)before Moosies long walk

[winner69]

At least the Strategy and Revenue guys haven't hocked off the 580,000 shares between them they got today
Shows confidence - waiting fora better price. They good traders those guys

Well well, the Chief Revenue guy has cashed in his chips

Was he worried about getting a lot less in a month or so .....or just he putting a new deck on his mansion (building costs going up you know)

[cdonald]

flew down to chc from auckland today on the 10am flight. not an empty seat. Looks like those who bought recently are still catching knives. Who knows where the bottom is on this one but the chartists must be having a hard time!

[Baa_Baa]

Well well, the Chief Revenue guy has cashed in his chips

Was he worried about getting a lot less in a month or so .....or just he putting a new deck on his mansion (building costs going up you know)

Good grief, what do these guys know? Bet it was a bit annoying having to put up that announce of selling 165,961 shares in the middle of the Bond issue.

[arc]

flew down to chc from auckland today on the 10am flight. not an empty seat. Looks like those who bought recently are still catching knives. Who knows where the bottom is on this one but the chartists must be having a hard time!



somewhere around $1.20 at Christmas time...

[bull....]

was consolidating at the lows between 1.76 - 1.80 on the hourlies when it broke thats why you got the big fall. 1.80 - 1.76 = 1.71 price projection.
if your a good oil trader then you should catch the bounce in air.

Anyway gonna take me 2yrs now to get my capital loss back on this one since going ex div thats just to get back to square.:scared:

[cdonald]

book yourself a holiday somewhere nice and pretend you were paying 2015 airfares. Its one way of feeling better about the capital loss.

[Baa_Baa]

was consolidating at the lows between 1.76 - 1.80 on the hourlies when it broke thats why you got the big fall. 1.80 - 1.76 = 1.71 price projection.
if your a good oil trader then you should catch the bounce in air.

Anyway gonna take me 2yrs now to get my capital loss back on this one since going ex div thats just to get back to square.:scared:

Technically that's a bad breakdown, putting the 61.8% fib retrace (of the four year rising trend) and 1.76-1.80 in place now as resistance. I have a minor support line at 1.70 then again around 1.55 and 1.35 but those seem well over cooked to the downside without some relief rally in between.

Another thought: now at about 47%! off the high 3.26 AIR needs a 90%!! SP appreciation to get back to that high. Ain't going to be happening any time soon. Biggest worry for the worry worts is this is all happening sans any bloody serious market rout, lord help the SP if there's a market shock or a black swan around the corner.

[bull....]

Technically that's a bad breakdown, putting the 61.8% fib retrace (of the four year rising trend) and 1.76-1.80 in place as resistance. I have a minor support line at 1.70 then again around 1.55 and 1.35 but those seem well over cooked to the downside without some relief rally in between.

yea 1.80 is resistance at the moment

[couta1]

Well well, the Chief Revenue guy has cashed in his chips

Was he worried about getting a lot less in a month or so .....or just he putting a new deck on his mansion (building costs going up you know) He cashed in 166k shares leaving him with 203k so probably keeping the rest for when the SP gets back to $3. Whilst I find it very annoying to see these guys selling down, I reckon their sales have only had a tiny influence on the current SP. The Govt own over 50% of the shares and they are having no influence on the SP, retail holders don't hold enough shares to cause any prolonged or sustained SP drop. That only leaves the Instos both NZ and international to drive the price down, these are the guys who have driven the price to where it now sits and some of these guys hold huge numbers of shares, with some of the Macro events around the traps currently who knows when they will take the pedal off the gas. We can only sit and watch(Or buy more if your see weed)

[bull....]

book yourself a holiday somewhere nice and pretend you were paying 2015 airfares. Its one way of feeling better about the capital loss.

current pricing seems to have gone up for overseas holidays on grab a seat lately?

[blackcap]

, I reckon their sales have only had a tiny influence on the current SP. The Govt own over 50% of the shares and they are having no influence on the SP, )

Its the perception by some investors that is important here. As insiders like the Chief Revenue guy knows more about what is happening with the company/industry than us plebs. So for some investor's they see insiders selling as a time to sell. The reverse is true too.

[Baa_Baa]

He cashed in 166k shares leaving him with 203k so probably keeping the rest for when the SP gets back to $3. Whilst I find it very annoying to see these guys selling down, I reckon their sales have only had a tiny influence on the current SP. [snip]

It plays on the psychological state of mind of retail investors. Like a cork in the ocean, bobbing around in a hapless state of ineffectual confusion. Every day this looks more and more like a Shakespeare play.

[stoploss]

He cashed in 166k shares leaving him with 203k so probably keeping the rest for when the SP gets back to $3. Whilst I find it very annoying to see these guys selling down, I reckon their sales have only had a tiny influence on the current SP. The Govt own over 50% of the shares and they are having no influence on the SP, retail holders don't hold enough shares to cause any prolonged or sustained SP drop. That only leaves the Instos both NZ and international to drive the price down, these are the guys who have driven the price to where it now sits and some of these guys hold huge numbers of shares, with some of the Macro events around the traps currently who knows when they will take the pedal off the gas. We can only sit and watch(Or buy more if your see weed)

Air NZ should look at their remuneration policy if the staff are only going to turn around and dump the shares ASAP . Why not just pay them a bit more cash if they don't want to be invested in the company for the long term .

[winner69]

Hey baabaa, a question

The third Fibonacci ratio is .236 (or .764)

Do these have any significance (or even used) in TA?

If they a 76.4% retracement is at 140

And if it continues it's downside spiral Fibonacci would say 119 is important

[Baa_Baa]

Hey baabaa, a question

The third Fibonacci ratio is .236 (or .764)

Do these have any significance (or even used) in TA?

If they a 76.4% retracement is at 140

And if it continues it's downside spiral Fibonacci would say 119 is important

There is debate on whether the Fib 76.4% or 78.6% is best, I think they are so close it doesn't make a lot of difference, and they turn up in Forex trading more than share trading. Nevertheless I use 78.6% on my charts and that is at 1.40 as far as my system goes (I chose the Aug 31 2012 spike low as the beginning of the measure). It's pretty close to the Sept 2013 close 1.35, but in between is the Mar 29 2013 high 1.54 which was hit 5 times before breakout on Oct 25 2013.

[couta1]

I keep waiting for you to run out of money SW:)----PS that little wink reminds me of the old DIL thread;)before Moosies long walk The thing about Moosies long walk is if he hadnt of decided to sell his DiL for a loss but held, he would have done very well.(Same goes for myself in regard to my large Chorus loss) however my large Chorus loss would be small in comparison to selling my Air holding atm, hence even a walk across the Aussie desert would be too short for me to consider such an option.:cool:

[Beagle]

It is very disappointing to see management selling at these depressed level's. The whole scheme is excessive in my opinion. When I last looked at it there were over 40m shares outstanding under executive incentive schemes, the original one and the new updated version.

As I have pointed out to Tony Carter in the frank discussion I had with him earlier this year this is over 8% of the free market float of the company, (excluding Govt stake), so management selling will indeed have an impact on the SP because its a) usually material in the context of the days volume and b) sends the wrong signal to the market. Its perhaps worth noting that he has been buying in modest volume lately.

I will not buy when management are selling and haven't been buying in recent weeks. I won't be a counter party to them using their extremely generous incentive scheme as an ATM machine.

My estimated / projected amended NTA after the VAH sale is $1.55 as at 31 October 2016. AIR have on occasion bought shares back when it goes under NTA. Whether this is allowable within the present version of the constitution I haven't checked. We might as well use NTA as some sort of reference point now that we're not that far away from it.

History shows buying under NTA has proved to be a sound investment in the long run.

[Baa_Baa]

@Roger, interesting that your NTA projection is smack on a support line (daily chart basis, dividends excluded). Whether or not shareholders buy in to any of our FA or TA prognosis or possibilities, those AIR senior management seem hell bent on scalping their own personal profits, perhaps even forecasting another leg down to the 1.50's. Hard to ignore, it seems like prophecy almost.

[Snow Leopard]

In the past the market has shown scant regard for the NTA of AIR.

As mentioned a while ago you could buy $1.45 of AIR NTA for $0.75c in March 2009.

Between March 2008 and October 2013 it traded below NTA for all but one month (Dec 10/Jan 11) and often at a deep 'discount' to that NTA.

So DYOR and look at buying something else :rolleyes:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Maybe we could run a poll to see how many are in the red and how many in the black with AIR. Arguably with 312 pages of threads the most posted, talked about, spruiked , stock on S/T, maybe thats an indicator for stocks to avoid. Disclose I'm in the red a little with a small parcel of shares, a few thousand.

[Snow Leopard]

It is possible that this 'shocking' Cathay Pacific announcement:

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/1012/LTN20161012494.pdf

had a bearing on Thursday's decline in AIR.

It certainly did not help CP !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

It is possible that this 'shocking' Cathay Pacific announcement:

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/1012/LTN20161012494.pdf

had a bearing on Thursday's decline in AIR.

It certainly did not help CP !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Bejeezus - what a shocker

Not making much money are they - at best NZ$120m this year


Investors are advised to exercise caution in dealing in shares of airlines

[fish]

Air NZ should look at their remuneration policy if the staff are only going to turn around and dump the shares ASAP . Why not just pay them a bit more cash if they don't want to be invested in the company for the long term .

This is so destructive to the sp that I feel action needs to be taken

It will be part of their employment agreement which they probably had input .
So what can we do
?a motion of censure at the next agm
?notify the IRD-I am very tempted to do this.
I suspect it could be viewed as income and I would bet he is not planning to pay tax on it

[couta1]

[QUOTE=Paper Tiger;640641]It is possible that this 'shocking' Cathay Pacific announcement:

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/1012/LTN20161012494.pdf

had a bearing on Thursday's decline in AIR.

It certainly did not help CP !

As I said in post 9347, macro events around the traps having the major affect on the share price not senior management cashing in some of their chips(Don't get me wrong, I'm not happy about it) Rising oil prices, the U.S elections, effects of increased competition ands the likes of the CP announcement above are the culprits.However Cathay does not operate in the same environment as Air and is hugely affected by the Chinese airlines, it also does not have a domestic monopoly like Air. Rising oil prices will be good for Air once a lot of the newly arrived competition hightail it out of here because of the viability of their less fuel efficient fleets and their bottom line return becomes not worth the effort.The effect of the increased competition will reduce Air profits, but the market has known this for some time so nothing new but remember no matter who brings the increase in tourists to NZ, Air is the only nation wide option they can choose to fly. The U.S election result is a thorn in the side of many stocks currently including Air.

[couta1]

This is so destructive to the sp that I feel action needs to be taken

It will be part of their employment agreement which they probably had input .
So what can we do
?a motion of censure at the next agm
?notify the IRD-I am very tempted to do this.
I suspect it could be viewed as income and I would bet he is not planning to pay tax on it Some good options you have outlined and as stop loss said, why give these people shares when they don't value those shares by maintaining a long term interest in the company? Some of these people probably already getting over the top renumeration before these other sweeteners are added.

[see weed]

This is so destructive to the sp that I feel action needs to be taken

It will be part of their employment agreement which they probably had input .
So what can we do
?a motion of censure at the next agm
?notify the IRD-I am very tempted to do this.
I suspect it could be viewed as income and I would bet he is not planning to pay tax on it
Good on you fish:t_up:, you go for it, and let us know the outcome. I have to pay tax on sm profits, so why not the big boys.I was under review from the IRD a few months back, but am in the clear now. And I'm only small fry....chicken feed.

[stoploss]

Here is a link to the committee that would overview the remuneration. I note there are short and long term targets . However the sharemarket being for long term so not sure if share options or entitlements come with short term goals ?
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/NZ/PDFs/PRDC-Charter-reviewed-Aug-2014.pdf

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air-new-zealand-corporate-governance-statement-2016.pdf

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/board-committees

Jonathan Mason and Jan Dawson look like the ones that would deal with this .
Putting out an APB for Roger , any interest in firing off a letter to either of these or people you have had previous contact with raising a concern , that this scheme should be part of a "long term " incentive package .
The latest sell seems to be a relatively short timeframe ?

Cheers

S/L

[BlackPeter]

This is so destructive to the sp that I feel action needs to be taken

It will be part of their employment agreement which they probably had input .
So what can we do
?a motion of censure at the next agm
?notify the IRD-I am very tempted to do this.
I suspect it could be viewed as income and I would bet he is not planning to pay tax on it

Absolutely agree that executives cashing in their shares as soon as they get them is a disgrace. On the other hand - they would say that they are just clever - wouldn't they? Makes sense to sell a dropping stock.

However - re IRD ... I am quite sure that they need to pay tax for getting these shares in the first place.

[skid]

Absolutely agree that executives cashing in their shares as soon as they get them is a disgrace. On the other hand - they would say that they are just clever - wouldn't they? Makes sense to sell a dropping stock.

However - re IRD ... I am quite sure that they need to pay tax for getting these shares in the first place.

Yes,personally Id be surprised if tax is an issue--sounds like more of a ''policy'' thing---One would think it would be more of a short term blip unless they have so many they are going to sell over a period.
So once they are gone,all being well,it should remedy(sp) If it doesnt then Market sentiment could be an issue. (reasonable assumption?)

Meanwhile ,I have'nt checked ---what is the new normal??:)

[BlackPeter]

Third wave down bottoming out?

I sort of ignored all my usual precautions and just bought a small parcel.

My excuses?

I enjoyed on Tuesday a great presentation from Tony Carter in Christchurch, organised by the NZSA ... as advertised here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10332-NZSA-Canterbury-meetings-amp-seminars&p=639524&viewfull=1#post639524)
and had afterwards as well the opportunity for some more questions. Feels like the stock is currently really undervalued (though this obviously does not mean that the SP needs to go up from here - markets can do anything at any time).

I assume if it works out than I earned some brownie points with Roger and Couta ;)- and if it doesn't, than I have at least some reminder in my portfolio to keep watch AIR for the bend in the trend ...

DYOR - this is clearly not a save bet - yet!

[bull....]

was consolidating at the lows between 1.76 - 1.80 on the hourlies when it broke thats why you got the big fall. 1.80 - 1.76 = 1.71 price projection.
if your a good oil trader then you should catch the bounce in air.

Anyway gonna take me 2yrs now to get my capital loss back on this one since going ex div thats just to get back to square.:scared:

as was saying yesterday was a technical crash thru consolidation flushed out the longs now up today back into its multi yr range lows like was saying was watching 1.74 and now we have 1.80 as resistance , see what happens

also as was saying air fares rising slowly you can check this out at bitre in Australia for statistics on this

[Beagle]

Here is a link to the committee that would overview the remuneration. I note there are short and long term targets . However the sharemarket being for long term so not sure if share options or entitlements come with short term goals ?
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/NZ/PDFs/PRDC-Charter-reviewed-Aug-2014.pdf

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air-new-zealand-corporate-governance-statement-2016.pdf

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/board-committees

Jonathan Mason and Jan Dawson look like the ones that would deal with this .
Putting out an APB for Roger , any interest in firing off a letter to either of these or people you have had previous contact with raising a concern , that this scheme should be part of a "long term " incentive package .
The latest sell seems to be a relatively short timeframe ?

Cheers

S/L

I think this is something best handled through the shareholders association if they decided to buy into the lengthy process of trying to bring about a change. I know Tony Carter cares about his reputation and the reputation in which the airline is held so I am not saying their is no hope but I have serious doubts any attempt to bring about change would be effectual.
The share incentive scheme goes back an awful long way and is deeply embedded within the culture of the airline. Management and directors will probably argue that the scheme forms an integral component of their remuneration structure and its more appropriate to tie in rewards based on long term performance than an all cash remuneration policy.

Salaries look high to me overall but I am not in a good position to judge, (what would a suburban accountant know about remuneration at high level's within senior corporate structures. Not a lot). That said back testing Chris Luxon's base salary of ~ $1.5m this looks very modest compared to what CEO's at VAH and QAN are paid so there would appear to be a prima facie case to support managements contention that the incentive scheme is an integral part of their remuneration.

I guess we would not be so grumpy about it if the SP was $2.70 instead of $1.70 odd. I think trying to go up against this deeply imbedded incentive culture would be akin to beating one's head against a brick wall so its not a battle I will take on. Not happy with it but I am happy with management's performance, extricating themselves from VAH is a very good thing...having the courage to do so in the first place, is admirable.

I think they're well positioned to compete.

[Raz]

Its the perception by some investors that is important here. As insiders like the Chief Revenue guy knows more about what is happening with the company/industry than us plebs. So for some investor's they see insiders selling as a time to sell. The reverse is true too.

I agree, I entertained buying in again however this news did make me pause.

[winner69]

AIR one of the stars of the NZX today, near top of leader board

No worries

[sb9]

I enjoyed on Tuesday a great presentation from Tony Carter in Christchurch, organised by the NZSA ... as advertised here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10332-NZSA-Canterbury-meetings-amp-seminars&p=639524&viewfull=1#post639524)
and had afterwards as well the opportunity for some more questions.

100% agree with Mr Carter, I for one keep him in very high regard in current NZ corporate environment.

[Beagle]

Third wave down bottoming out?

I sort of ignored all my usual precautions and just bought a small parcel.

My excuses?

I enjoyed on Tuesday a great presentation from Tony Carter in Christchurch, organised by the NZSA ... as advertised here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10332-NZSA-Canterbury-meetings-amp-seminars&p=639524&viewfull=1#post639524)
and had afterwards as well the opportunity for some more questions. Feels like the stock is currently really undervalued (though this obviously does not mean that the SP needs to go up from here - markets can do anything at any time).

I assume if it works out than I earned some brownie points with Roger and Couta ;)- and if it doesn't, than I have at least some reminder in my portfolio to keep watch AIR for the bend in the trend ...

DYOR - this is clearly not a save bet - yet!

Okay... 1 brownie point ! I agree its undervalued but sentiment is poor and not helped by insiders selling so the only thing I will double down on at present is a good glass of Scotch this evening.

[couta1]

AIR one of the stars of the NZX today, near top of leader board

No worries With a 52wk trading range of $1.715-$3.26,star status is a galaxy away yet, you must be doing part time work for Tui mate.

[skid]

I think this is something best handled through the shareholders association if they decided to buy into the lengthy process of trying to bring about a change. I know Tony Carter cares about his reputation and the reputation in which the airline is held so I am not saying their is no hope but I have serious doubts any attempt to bring about change would be effectual.
The share incentive scheme goes back an awful long way and is deeply embedded within the culture of the airline. Management and directors will probably argue that the scheme forms an integral component of their remuneration structure and its more appropriate to tie in rewards based on long term performance than an all cash remuneration policy.

Salaries look high to me overall but I am not in a good position to judge, (what would a suburban accountant know about remuneration at high level's within senior corporate structures. Not a lot). That said back testing Chris Luxon's base salary of ~ $1.5m this looks very modest compared to what CEO's at VAH and QAN are paid so there would appear to be a prima facie case to support managements contention that the incentive scheme is an integral part of their remuneration.

I guess we would not be so grumpy about it if the SP was $2.70 instead of $1.70 odd. I think trying to go up against this deeply imbedded incentive culture would be akin to beating one's head against a brick wall so its not a battle I will take on. Not happy with it but I am happy with management's performance, extricating themselves from VAH is a very good thing...having the courage to do so in the first place, is admirable.

I think they're well positioned to compete.

They are certainly not alone in doing this--lots of companies do it.It just hurts a bit more in a downtrend ,temporary or not.--Surly though it must have been designed to encourage management to be part of the company and to identify with it more than just ''working''for it...Anyway it appears to be short lived as long as they dont sideswipe the market again.

Agree it was good to extract themselves from VAH (but that disastrous move of quitting the board showed that he can make the odd serious mistake--Lets hope it was just a one off,in terms of letting emotions get in the way of smart thinking.--onward..

[skid]

With a 52wk trading range of $1.715-$3.26,star status is a galaxy away yet, you must be doing part time work for Tui mate.

Who are you and what have you done with Couta? :):)

[couta1]

Who are you and what have you done with Couta? :):) I'm suffering from grumpy bear syndrome today but off to work soon to help some less fortunate people than myself, that should fix things.

[Beagle]

They are certainly not alone in doing this--lots of companies do it.It just hurts a bit more in a downtrend ,temporary or not.--Surly though it must have been designed to encourage management to be part of the company and to identify with it more than just ''working''for it...Anyway it appears to be short lived as long as they dont sideswipe the market again.

Agree it was good to extract themselves from VAH (but that disastrous move of quitting the board showed that he can make the odd serious mistake--Lets hope it was just a one off,in terms of letting emotions get in the way of smart thinking.--onward..

I am curious, why do you think that was a disastrous mistake ? They got 33 cps for the initial tranche when the SP was much lower and recently sold the rest of 32 cps when again the SP is languishing in the low 20's, (last time I looked).
He called out the CEO as being incompetent, (6 years in the top job and all they can do is make losses in the most favourable conditions for airlines in half a century in FY16). Either the business model of VAH is systemically flawed, the CEO is doing a very poor job, or both, (I think both). Reading between the lines he probably resigned on the spot at a board meeting when the other board members wouldn't back him to fire the CEO, shows he's a strong leader not afraid to back his own strongly held beliefs and his strength and the courage he showed to back his own strongly held convictions is what got AIR disentangled from VAH.

The other thing is seeing as the board of VAH wanted to initiate a major capital raise and AIR had decided to sell their stake there was a potential conflict of interest if he had of stayed on the board...I believe from memory that was the official line of why he resigned but i'd imagine there might have been some slightly more colourful language used at that board meeting...overall, what's not to like ? The satisfactory end result, (in the circumstances considering the truly appalling financial performance of VAH), justifies the means, does it not ?

[bull....]

got my numbers wrong haha 1.76 is the resistance now as the consolidation was 1.76 - 180 now we have hit 1.76 which was the bottom of the consolidation and retreated. so needs to go above 1.76

[skid]

I am curious, why do you think that was a disastrous mistake ? They got 33 cps for the initial tranche when the SP was much lower and recently sold the rest of 32 cps when again the SP is languishing in the low 20's, (last time I looked).
He called out the CEO as being incompetent, (6 years in the top job and all they can do is make losses in the most favourable conditions for airlines in half a century in FY16). Either the business model of VAH is systemically flawed, the CEO is doing a very poor job, or both, (I think both). Reading between the lines he probably resigned on the spot at a board meeting when the other board members wouldn't back him to fire the CEO, shows he's a strong leader not afraid to back his own strongly held beliefs and his strength and the courage he showed to back his own strongly held convictions is what got AIR disentangled from VAH.

The other thing is seeing as the board of VAH wanted to initiate a major capital raise and AIR had decided to sell their stake there was a potential conflict of interest if he had of stayed on the board...I believe from memory that was the official line of why he resigned but i'd imagine there might have been some slightly more colourful language used at that board meeting...overall, what's not to like ? The satisfactory end result, (in the circumstances considering the truly appalling financial performance of VAH), justifies the means, does it not ?

It worked out ok in the end but it could have been messy in terms of the HNA share dilution(VAH)....Quote..If Air New Zealand had handled itself differently it would have had a seat in negotiating the new strategic partner. Instead, Luxon's resignation meant the airline lost any rights to be consulted on the HNA investment and strategic alliance....

I personally dont think its smart to burn bridges...just sayin

[Jantar]

For you techies - Air NZ has support @ around $1.80 (todays close.)
Interesting to read this from the very first page of this thread, in September 2004.

I topped up a little today. Still well in the red though.

[Joshuatree]

You've read all 313 pages Jantar!!!!:eek2: Aglutton for punishment/entertainment; quiet day in the Pump house, theGenerator room:). any conclusions there?The most pumped stock here?

[couta1]

You've read all 313 pages Jantar!!!!:eek2: Aglutton for punishment/entertainment; quiet day in the Pump house, theGenerator room:). any conclusions there?The most pumped stock here? Actually there are 626 pages and on view numbers Air comes in 4th behind, Peb/HBL and Xro, Peb is the clear winner by a long distance plane flight on both counts, so obviously Air needs a bit more pumping to stay in the race.

[Jantar]

You've read all 313 pages Jantar!!!!:eek2: Aglutton for punishment/entertainment; quiet day in the Pump house, theGenerator room:). any conclusions there?The most pumped stock here?
No. Accidentally clicked on the title instead of unread posts and immediately scrolled down to bottom of the page, read the last 2 posts on that page and saw the close at $1.80. I thought that sounded a bit high and so looked at the date and time of the post. :)

[Snow Leopard]

Actually there are 626 pages and on view numbers Air comes in 4th behind, Peb/HBL and Xro, Peb is the clear winner by a long distance plane flight on both counts, so obviously Air needs a bit more pumping to stay in the race.

Actually the number of thread pages depends upon your Number of 'Posts to Show Per Page' setting. You have it set at 15, JT at 30.

The actual correct setting is 20 per page giving 470 pages.

Just a pity that Jantar did not read post#3 :).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[777]

default is 15/page.

Post #3 is Buffet's advice on airlines as well.

[Joshuatree]

I have said it before and I will say it again [in differt words].

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low.

There it is the prequel vapour tigger ghost post from 2004. There are prob 100's of losers on here including me who wish that p/t had refreshed that every 30 posts.:scared:

[JeremyALD]

There it is the prequel vapour tigger ghost post from 2004. There are prob 100's of losers on here including me who wish that p/t had refreshed that every 30 posts.:scared:

The sad part about AIR NZ is unless I go back and risk more money I doubt I'll ever make what I've lost back! $2.71 seems like a lifetime ago, yet it was less than 4 months. Think I'll hold on tight for the next couple of years and see what happens. Still not nice to see so far in the red!

[couta1]

The sad part about AIR NZ is unless I go back and risk more money I doubt I'll ever make what I've lost back! $2.71 seems like a lifetime ago, yet it was less than 4 months. Think I'll hold on tight for the next couple of years and see what happens. Still not nice to see so far in the red! As you have highlighted even 4 months seems like a lifetime ago and being a cyclical stock a lot can happen over the period of a few years, so there is every chance it will get to $2.71 again if your prepared to wait, and whilst waiting you get all those nice divvies along the way. At least you have your money In a company with a 76 year history, not some whizz bang tech stock whose products/services may never make it or survive the long haul.

[freddagg]

I am certainly with you on the "nice divvies" Couta.
All my stocks pay dividends but Air is 20% of my portfolio and over the last year has produced 60% of my dividends

[Beagle]

As you have highlighted even 4 months seems like a lifetime ago and being a cyclical stock a lot can happen over the period of a few years, so there is every chance it will get to $2.71 again if your prepared to wait, and whilst waiting you get all those nice divvies along the way. At least you have your money In a company with a 76 year history, not some whizz bang tech stock whose products/services may never make it or survive the long haul.

Well said mate and not to forget it made money throughout the GFC unlike many other airlines.

[Joshuatree]

Actually there are 626 pages and on view numbers Air comes in 4th behind, Peb/HBL and Xro, Peb is the clear winner by a long distance plane flight on both counts, so obviously Air needs a bit more pumping to stay in the race.

314 pages for me.So an easy way to avoid losing money is to avoid the stocks with the most pages. HBL excepted s it was relentlessly attacked as a risky finance company and not a quality bank which has had a great performance, double bagger and free carried:t_up: for many shareholders, whereas AIR which has only broken through $3 once before way back in 2007 was spruiked right up to the top with" back up the truck" type statements in the $2.90's. The div for AIR is great atm but thats a bit of a damp squib for holders, myself included with the s/p weak and looking like on the downward path for another 5/7 year cycle, hope I'm wrong there.

[Beagle]

The prophets of doom say we're just starting a long cycle downwards, most holders are fully cognisant of the new more competitive environment and who can say for sure what conditions will exist in the industry in FY18 and beyond ? Time will tell. What we know for sure is they have a young streamlined fuel efficient fleet, a very strong franchise in N.Z., a good reputation, strong and well respected management, highly intelligent and well respected directors and the support of millions of Kiwi's, many of whom are very parochial in their choice they make of their service provider.

One things for sure though, please keep your seatbelt firmly fastened as unexpected turbulence can strike at any time !

[workingdad]

I am close to doubling down, nearly did so last couple of days but just not sure it hasn't got more downward pressure to come, the volumes are high and still indicating to me there are no shortage of sellers which in reality probably means I still have some time to sit back and see what happens.

I think the FA side of things is capable of maintaining a decent divvy going forward even if its not in the 10-15% range. Longer term it makes sense but I am keen on buying in as cheap as I can to mitigate the risk of more capitol erosion in the short term. I am a believer and think AIR is well placed mainly due to its domestic market and when fuel does get more expensive they are well placed to maintain routes with economical planes than a lot of the competition coming in.

[peat]

an easy way to avoid losing money is to avoid the stocks with the most pages.

Awesome new strategy.:laugh:

[winner69]

Key principle of trend theory is that trends don't change direction unless there is a 'shock' to cause a reversal

So AIR have to come up with something exciting to break this current downtrend. Until this (good news) happens expect the current trend to continue.

The long up trend was going fine until that infamous Investor Day Briefing last May - that was the 'shock' that caused that uptrend to reverse and started this current downtrend.

[Hoop]

...

(Note for geeks- I'm talking general trend theory here - nothing to do with TA, Dow Theory etc and all that sort of stuff.)

trend
trɛnd/
noun
noun: trend; plural noun: trends


1.
a general direction in which something is developing or changing.
"an upward trend in sales and profit margins"


synonyms:
tendency (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+tendency&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIHjAA), movement (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+movement&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIHzAA), drift (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+drift&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIIDAA), swing (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+swing&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIITAA), shift (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+shift&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIIjAA), course (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+course&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIIzAA), current (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+current&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIJDAA), run (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+run&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIJTAA), direction (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+direction&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIJjAA), inclination (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+inclination&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIJzAA), leaning (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+leaning&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIKDAA); Morebias (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+bias&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIKjAA), bent (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+bent&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIKzAA)
"an upward trend in unemployment"
That's TA and DOW stuff













2.
a fashion.
"the latest trends in modern dance"


synonyms:
fashion (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+fashion&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoILTAA), vogue (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+vogue&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoILjAA), style (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+style&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoILzAA), mode (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+mode&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIMDAA), craze (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+craze&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIMTAA), mania (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+mania&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIMjAA), rage (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+rage&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIMzAA); Moreinformalfad (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+fad&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoINTAA), thing (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+thing&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoINjAA)
"the latest trend in dance music"
Thats not TA or DOW stuff














3.
a topic that is the subject of many posts on a social media website within a short period of time.
"for more than 20 days in a row, most of the top Twitter trends were Olympics-related"
That's not TA or DOW stuff







verb


1.
change or develop in a general direction.
"unemployment has been trending upwards"



synonyms:

move (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+move&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIOTAA), go (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+go&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIOjAA), tend (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+tend&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIOzAA), head (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+head&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIPDAA), drift (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+drift&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIPTAA), gravitate (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+gravitate&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIPjAA), swing (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+swing&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIPzAA), shift (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+shift&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIQDAA), turn (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+turn&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIQTAA), incline (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+incline&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIQjAA), lean (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+lean&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIQzAA), veer (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+veer&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQ_SoIRDAA) "interest rates are trending up in Japan"
Thats TA or DOW stuff










(especially of a geographical feature) bend or turn away in a specified direction.
verb: trend; 3rd person present: trends; past tense: trended; past participle: trended; gerund or present participle: trending
"the Richelieu River trending southward to Lake Champlain"
That's not TA or DOW stuff









2.
(of a topic) be the subject of many posts on a social media website within a short period of time.
"I've just taken a quick look at what's trending on Twitter right now"
Thats not TA or DOW stuff








Origin
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Old English trendan ‘revolve, rotate’, of Germanic origin; compare with trundle (https://www.google.co.nz/search?client=firefox-b&q=define+trundle&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7--im0tvPAhUC52MKHctPB1MQgCsISDAA). The verb sense ‘turn in a specified direction’ dates from the late 16th cent, and gave rise to the figurative use ‘develop in a general direction’ in the mid 19th century, a development paralleled in the noun.


Translate trend to



Use over time for: trend
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Conclusion :D... Winners definition of trend is either fashion, Twitter, a bend in the river or a subject with the most posts in a forum..Hmmmm..AIR thread is second to NZO

[winner69]

OK - all semantics and intepretation I think Hoop

I was wrong - according to your notes I was meaning TA, Dow stuff. Purpose of note was to avoid being told by TA guru's 'that's not TA' and thats 'a load of rubbish'

Whatever since the Investor Day Briefing that 'shocked' the market and started a downtrend that was further reinforced by the $400m-$600m guidance its been all downhill. So what 'shock' / good news is going to reverse that trend?

Until that happens trend likely to stay in place - downwards

[axe]

OK - all semantics and intepretation I think Hoop

I was wrong - according to your notes I was meaning TA, Dow stuff. Purpose of note was to avoid being told by TA guru's 'that's not TA' and thats 'a load of rubbish'

Whatever since the Investor Day Briefing that 'shocked' the market and started a downtrend that was further reinforced by the $400m-$600m guidance its been all downhill. So what 'shock' / good news is going to reverse that trend?

Until that happens trend likely to stay in place - downwards

Shock at half year could be Chris saying new guidance full year now expected to exceed 600m and be in the 600m-800m range. Might be enough to snap the down trend?
Could shock it the other way and he might say things heading toward the lower end or below current guidance.

It's interesting looking at the returns for AIR over the last 10 years. Not huge capital gain but per if you invested $10k on 15/10/2006 you would have received about $13k in divvys during the decade.

[Jantar]

...... Not huge capital gain but per if you invested $10k on 15/10/2006 you would have received about $13k in divvys during the decade.
And that is the reason why I am not too worried by the current low SP. On the estimated divies going forward, owning shares in this company will give an after tax return of greater than 10%.

[Baa_Baa]

Assuming you could buy your shares on a Sunday, or rather buy the close Fri 13th Oct 2006, you would also have a 10-year elapsed capital gain of 20.3% or $2,034 plus your original investment $10,000 plus $13,000 (using Axe's number) = $25,034 total or 150% ROI. Seems pretty good.

This suggests that the secret (for AIR?) is buy low(ish) and NEVER sell, EVER. Or buy something else that pays a dividend AND grows share value.

Interesting perspective, but not really all that convincing. The dubious element of the example given is the precise day/time at which the shares were bought.

[forest]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/290531

[King1212]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00968/analysts-revise-down-air-nz-share-price-and-earnings-targets.htm

buy now before too late:D

[Stranger_Danger]

This suggests that the secret (for AIR?) is buy low(ish) and NEVER sell, EVER. .

Gee, the secret with airline stocks is to never sell? That is the exact opposite advice to what Warren Buffett gives when it comes to an industry that, collectively, has not made a single dollar of profit since the Wright brothers!

You *might* get lucky/smart with your timing, but the industry economics are not a surprise and airlines are a classic value investors trap. See below disclosure for proof!

P.S I'm not on my pedestal being oh so clever. I've invested in Air NZ twice for returns of -60%, and +20%, both inadequate. Not counting dividends, but they are to an airline investor what crack is to a crack addict - the thing that keeps them addicted, while missing the bigger picture of the company they're keeping. Personally, I'd take the crack house over the airline industry economics.

[Raz]

Gee, the secret with airline stocks is to never sell? That is the exact opposite advice to what Warren Buffett gives when it comes to an industry that, collectively, has not made a single dollar of profit since the Wright brothers!

You *might* get lucky/smart with your timing, but the industry economics are not a surprise and airlines are a classic value investors trap. See below disclosure for proof!

P.S I'm not on my pedestal being oh so clever. I've invested in Air NZ twice for returns of -60%, and +20%, both inadequate. Not counting dividends, but they are to an airline investor what crack is to a crack addict - the thing that keeps them addicted, while missing the bigger picture of the company they're keeping. Personally, I'd take the crack house over the airline industry economics.

I have not lost a cent on Air, actually made good coin, the one real advantage of being out of AIR is that you get your life back..not constantly watching for the latest development:-) Been a rewarding however high maintenance 12 months trading AIR. Enjoying the break:-)

[axe]

Interesting perspective, but not really all that convincing. The dubious element of the example given is the precise day/time at which the shares were bought.

Dubious element? :) I just picked the same date 10 years ago lol...... sorry for not checkin' that it was a sunday. :D.

[Baa_Baa]

I think the real secret of investing in AIR, is having some long-term method of when to buy and when to sell. Without that, the secret is avoid it. JMHO.

[Baa_Baa]

I have not lost a cent on Air, actually made good coin, the one real advantage of being out of AIR is that you get your life back..not constantly watching for the latest development:-) Been a rewarding however high maintenance 12 months trading AIR. Enjoying the break:-)

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

[skid]

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

Its ironic how much money one would have made (saved)by just watching from the outside--Buy and hold...hmmm...lets see SP now is roughly the same as march 2014--high was Jan this year..im sure there are all sorts of conclusions we could draw--(lets just hope its not starting from around the high)

it would be interesting to compare AIR investment to buying a house and collecting rent(div)

[Raz]

Ditto, though without the high maintenance. A long term perspective makes money in AIR as well as nimble trading, that could be a few years of being in and a few more of being out. Now is the out time.

Nimble trading is reading sentiment correctly..that is constantly watching, FA and TA with this stock has not provided an effective tool in itself.

[iceman]

Pretty serious stuff taking Samsung phones to another level http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11729805

[BlackPeter]

Pretty serious stuff taking Samsung phones to another level http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11729805

Shame .... sounds like a really nice phone:

http://www.samsung.com/nz/galaxys7

for some reason they don't advertise that it might go up in flames and can't be taken on planes (*) - but this is probably for another thread.

(*) - actually - they just changed their webpage ... now they do.

[Beagle]

Its ironic how much money one would have made (saved)by just watching from the outside--Buy and hold...hmmm...lets see SP now is roughly the same as march 2014--high was Jan this year..im sure there are all sorts of conclusions we could draw--(lets just hope its not starting from around the high)

it would be interesting to compare AIR investment to buying a house and collecting rent(div)

If you bought an average house in Auckland now you'd pay $900K and get $500 a week for rent. Assuming 48 weeks per year was paid, they didn't do any major damage, didn't start a meth lab in your house and actually paid the rent your looking at gross rent $24,000, less estimated expenses, rates, $3,000, Insurance $1,000, Repairs and Maintenance $2,000 and provision for deep cycle repairs and maintenance (repaint inside and out and new carpets, lino e.t.c. every 10 years, ($20,000 = $2,000 per annum = Net return before tax of $16,000, (say $10,720 after tax at 33%) or about 1.78% gross assuming you managed the property yourself, collected the rent e.t.c.e.t.c. You'd probably be buying very close to the top of the cycle.

On the other hand $900,000 invested in AIR would likely buy you 513,257 shares at $1.75 plus brokerage which would return you $102,651 in fully imputed dividends. You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle.

Pop Quiz - Which sum would be easier for a retired person to live on ? Which alternative involves an awful lot of hard work and drama dealing with tenants and which one involves just doing nothing ?

Disc; I would never advise investing all ones retirement funds in one stock, just posting for the sake of pointing out what an interestingly stark comparison these two alternatives represent...and people say owning AIR is crazy !...I know which investment I think is crazy. That said we have done very well indeed out of Auckland property in terms of capital gain but that matters little to us now in our mid 50's going forward from here and you'd be a brave person to say Auckland property will keep going up ad infinitum.
I just want life to be easy now so yield is where its at for me so 20 cps annual dividends is highly attractive. Putting more "retired" into the phrase semi-retired is where it's at for me.

[Hoop]

....You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle....



Or the way down from the top..

Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom

[Raz]

Or the way down from the top..

Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom

I hate to agree however there is no clear sign we are near the bottom of the cycle...

[boysy]

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11729283

Race To the bottom it seems

[freddagg]

Shame .... sounds like a really nice phone:

http://www.samsung.com/nz/galaxys7

for some reason they don't advertise that it might go up in flames and can't be taken on planes (*) - but this is probably for another thread.

(*) - actually - they just changed their webpage ... now they do.

That link is advertising the S7, they are fine,just the Note 7 that is a problem

[Baa_Baa]

Or the way down from the top..

Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom

Good summary of a business cycle bottom. In terms of the SP, assuming the double bottoms Apr 2009 and Jun 2012 are a market cycle indicator, it's already ~62% of the way there. Might be time for a bounce off that fibonacci number eh, back test 50% and the May/June lows at 2.02?

[winner69]

Our man Christopher on his annual crusade preaching business sustainability

Talked a lot of other CEOs into getting their business to use more EV - all 1500 odd by 2019

Good on him - sustainable businesses are what we need - even if profits are impacted.

Must be hard to do these crusades at the same time that airlines are increasing emissions at a great rate these days

Never mind - keep at it Christopher, as long as Air makes a decent profit it will be OK

[Vaygor1]

If you bought an average house in Auckland now you'd pay $900K and get $500 a week for rent. .... = Net return ....[of] say $10,720 after tax.
On the other hand $900,000 invested in AIR would likely buy you 513,257 shares at $1.75 plus brokerage which would return you $102,651 in fully imputed dividends....
Pop Quiz - Which sum would be easier for a retired person to live on ?Which alternative involves an awful lot of hard work and drama dealing with tenants and which one involves just doing nothing ?
....

One other distinct advantage in stock ownership vs house ownership is with shares you can reduce your holding for whatever reason by selling part of it. Not so easy with a house to carve off a bedroom and recover the capital on that piece alone.

[couta1]

Obviously buying at the very bottom of the cycle would be ideal but hey most of us have to live in the real world so live with where we bought in at plus a bit of averaging down if we are so inclined. I'm middle of the road at a $2.29 average and a price which could be reached again within 6 months IMO, but regardless I'm happy to have 50% of our retirement funds invested in Air long term. As far as rentals go, not interested for reasons Roger has already pointed out in his last post plus Vaygors additions as well (Mind you I wouldn't like to have to reduce my holding currently for any reason obviously)

[Beagle]

Good summary of a business cycle bottom. In terms of the SP, assuming the double bottoms Apr 2009 and Jun 2012 are a market cycle indicator, it's already ~62% of the way there. Might be time for a bounce off that fibonacci number eh, back test 50% and the May/June lows at 2.02?

Good point Baa Baa.
Yes thanks Hoop for the salient reminder. I believe a lot of the negativity is built around an assumption we're going to have another GFC, (assuming we ever recovered properly from the first one, a decent debate all of itself), and people are quick to point to the cyclical low at the bottom of the last GFC. If we're comparing apples with pears, some people might like to consider how low for example high quality stocks like Ryman got at the bottom of the GFC, I remember them at $1.60, I am sure Vaygor1 with his in-depth knowledge of Ryman would probably remember them lower.

I personally don't think it's especially wise to assume we're going to have a GFC Mk2, granted its a possibility and theoretically possible that AIR's SP could halve from here but so would a lot of other stocks if that eventuated.

If we stick with official average forecasts of the 6 brokers following AIR we don't see any precipitous drop in earnings from FY17 and as Couta1 has noted their average forecast dividend is ~ 20 cps fully imputed for the foreseeable future and that's how company management see it too. The well foreshadowed capex holiday they have after FY19 underwrites their ability to pay at this dividend level well into the next decade assuming we don't have another GFC. Many people would qrgue with quite some merit in my view that the GFC was the most severe financial event since the great depression of 1929.

Food for thought, could the next cyclical low be quite significantly less severe than the last one ?
Further food for thought, is your capital at any more risk in AIR considering its SP has already been beaten up badly than stocks trading on lofty forward PE's ?

One other distinct advantage in stock ownership vs house ownership is with shares you can reduce your holding for whatever reason by selling part of it. Not so easy with a house to carve off a bedroom and recover the capital on that piece alone.

Couldn't agree more mate. Then there's the fantastic liquidity of stocks. We've been trying to quit a couple of low quality sections for over a year now, others we've held have performed extremely well but ones with more difficult build profile are much harder. You don't get that problem with shares do you although anyone with a large position in IQE, PPL or...(insert your favourite penny dreadful) might disagree !

[Beagle]

Obviously buying at the very bottom of the cycle would be ideal but hey most of us have to live in the real world so live with where we bought in at plus a bit of averaging down if we are so inclined. I'm middle of the road at a $2.29 average and a price which could be reached again within 6 months IMO, but regardless I'm happy to have 50% of our retirement funds invested in Air long term. As far as rentals go, not interested for reasons Roger has already pointed out in his last post plus Vaygors additions as well (Mind you I wouldn't like to have to reduce my holding currently for any reason obviously)

Based on e.mail discussions I know you haven't deducted your 35 cent dividend from that so looked at another way your net average is ($2.29 - $0.35) = $1.94. Not so bad mate when you look at it like that. Why not make yourself feel a bit better and look at it the net of dividend way. Quite aside from that its what they can pay us for the next 10 years + that counts mate and is going to make our lives easier.

[Raz]

Our man Christopher on his annual crusade preaching business sustainability

Talked a lot of other CEOs into getting their business to use more EV - all 1500 odd by 2019

Good on him - sustainable businesses are what we need - even if profits are impacted.

Must be hard to do these crusades at the same time that airlines are increasing emissions at a great rate these days

Never mind - keep at it Christopher, as long as Air makes a decent profit it will be OK

Yep is doing the texted book PR, talking three years out which is where the analysts and market should be using as the valuation basis however they are not.

Auckland property of any quality, if you purchased early in the cycle, i.e even 2012, which I did with my ChCH EQ money, was the most easy money I have ever made and liquid as to resell.

One asset is a a different point in its cycle to the other so why compare.

[Snow Leopard]

Annualised table of returns for 1,2,3,4,5,10 & 15 investment periods to the first trading day on or after 14-Oct in Year YYYY. Prices adjusted for splits and dividends.

Orange: <5% return
Green: >15% return
Blue: otherwise

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20161016-1.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Baa_Baa]

Fiction or facts, ROI illustrations over time, by necessity begin with choosing a year Zero, the starting point, which makes a big difference, though might depend on what outcome one wishes to illustrate.

[skid]

If you bought an average house in Auckland now you'd pay $900K and get $500 a week for rent. Assuming 48 weeks per year was paid, they didn't do any major damage, didn't start a meth lab in your house and actually paid the rent your looking at gross rent $24,000, less estimated expenses, rates, $3,000, Insurance $1,000, Repairs and Maintenance $2,000 and provision for deep cycle repairs and maintenance (repaint inside and out and new carpets, lino e.t.c. every 10 years, ($20,000 = $2,000 per annum = Net return before tax of $16,000, (say $10,720 after tax at 33%) or about 1.78% gross assuming you managed the property yourself, collected the rent e.t.c.e.t.c. You'd probably be buying very close to the top of the cycle.

On the other hand $900,000 invested in AIR would likely buy you 513,257 shares at $1.75 plus brokerage which would return you $102,651 in fully imputed dividends. You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle.

Pop Quiz - Which sum would be easier for a retired person to live on ? Which alternative involves an awful lot of hard work and drama dealing with tenants and which one involves just doing nothing ?

Disc; I would never advise investing all ones retirement funds in one stock, just posting for the sake of pointing out what an interestingly stark comparison these two alternatives represent...and people say owning AIR is crazy !...I know which investment I think is crazy. That said we have done very well indeed out of Auckland property in terms of capital gain but that matters little to us now in our mid 50's going forward from here and you'd be a brave person to say Auckland property will keep going up ad infinitum.
I just want life to be easy now so yield is where its at for me so 20 cps annual dividends is highly attractive. Putting more "retired" into the phrase semi-retired is where it's at for me.

Could be right ..but..one has to wonder what neighborhood your buying in there Roger...and wouldnt it be more fair to compare with what has already happened instead of what you think will happen?--I dont know many people who have LOST approx 40% on a house (whoops..better deduct some of that last dividend from your total).....but.... I think houses are to expensive these days as well and probably wouldnt do it...but that doesnt mean Id be running out and buying hundreds of thousands of AIR shares either--(Ive seen first hand how that has gone for some. So for them ,they've got one hell of a deficit to make up.....hmmm..maybe houses arent so bad..

NAH...We cant have another GFC they've fixed all those things that were wrong with the economy, eh??

and if your shares halve in value ..thats ok cause others have probably halved as well...does that make you feel better when someone says your a chump for being in the share market at all at that stage?
Are you the kind of investor who will bail if things start looking ominous?
(with all that food ,my thoughts are getting a bit upset and bloated)

[winner69]

Fiction or facts, ROI illustrations over time, by necessity begin with choosing a year Zero, the starting point, which makes a big difference, though might depend on what outcome one wishes to illustrate.

Can't quite fathom what you saying ......but there are 17 (or even 86 if you take each combo) starting points on PT's table

And each starting date is the same each year - a time when previous year result been digested and ASM been held and most pretty up to speed to what the new year looks like ......seems reasonable

Interesting results - current green periods on way of turning blue and then orange methinks

Assuming PT numbers are correct

[couta1]

Can't quite fathom what you saying ......but there are 17 (or even 86 if you take each combo) starting points on PT's table

And each starting date is the same each year - a time when previous year result been digested and ASM been held and most pretty up to speed to what the new year looks like ......seems reasonable

Interesting results - current green periods on way of turning blue and then orange methinks

Assuming PT numbers are correct Nah your wrong mate, that pretty table shows since 2013 orange is on the way out, the cat just likes orange because it matches his coat colour.

[RTM]

Does anyone know the date, even approximate, that AIR might report its interim result ? I can see that any dividend will be paid in March....but can't find anything about when the result was released to the market. Thanks in advance....RTM.

[couta1]

Does anyone know the date, even approximate, that AIR might report its interim result ? I can see that any dividend will be paid in March....but can't find anything about when the result was released to the market. Thanks in advance....RTM. Near the end of Feb, last year was 25th Feb.

[RTM]

Thanks Couta....can't seem to find it on their flash investor site.
Probably not looking in the right place.

[winner69]

Near the end of Feb, last year was 25th Feb.

Yikes - that is so far far away

Something positive has to happen before then --- else the trend will continue

[OldGuy]

so, basically PT's chart shows that 2013-2016 were the strongest in history? Very interesting. Thanks for that.

[winner69]

RSI doesn't suggest AIR is oversold yet - assuming that I even know what I'm talking about

[couta1]

RSI doesn't suggest AIR is oversold yet - assuming that I even know what I'm talking about No but Slow Stoch does and MACD on the turn?

[Raz]

No but Slow Stoch does and MACD on the turn?

Its about time someone came out with some positive news:-)

[winner69]

Its about time someone came out with some positive news:-)

Definitely needs it eh Raz

Maybe a case of no news is good news

[RTM]

Yikes - that is so far far away

Something positive has to happen before then --- else the trend will continue

Yes....I was hoping it would be sooner !

[couta1]

Its about time someone came out with some positive news:-) Well Air was just voted the best Airline in Australasia in the World travel awards for the 8th year running, just to remind holders that we are invested in an Aussie beating quality company here.

[winner69]

Yes....I was hoping it would be sooner !

Only 130 sleeps to go RTM

But don't forget Santa comes in the meantime .....what u going to ask Santa for this year?

[Beagle]

Santa - Peace and harmony within our extended family, AIR with a $2 handle and a new BMW 7 Series...but I'll settle for 2 out of 3 ain't bad, (with apoligies to Meatloaf)

[winner69]

Santa - Peace and harmony within our extended family, AIR with a $2 handle and a new BMW 7 Series...but I'll settle for 2 out of 3 ain't bad, (with apoligies to Meatloaf)

Yep taking the extended family who live in peace and harmony for a spin in the new BMW to the beach will make an idyllic Christmas day

The AIR share will still be disappointingly low but then again god willing there's Santa to look forward to again in 2017

[skid]

Just like the old days eh? All the regulars having a warm discussion---It was all just a slight speed bump in the continuing saga:)

[see weed]

The new low is $1.715. Did anyone notice Fridays low then jumped 3c to $1.745 in the afternoon? Then on close they had a big order in at 1.745, so the sp would close on that price and no lower, then yesterday the same thing happened but 1c higher at 1.755. It is like someone is supporting sp from falling. At this rate we will be back to 1.80 by weeks end and 1.90 a couple of weeks later. Or is it my suspicious mind playing with me?:confused:

[skid]

The new low is $1.715. Did anyone notice Fridays low then jumped 3c to $1.745 in the afternoon? Then on close they had a big order in at 1.745, so the sp would close on that price and no lower, then yesterday the same thing happened but 1c higher at 1.755. It is like someone is supporting sp from falling. At this rate we will be back to 1.80 by weeks end and 1.90 a couple of weeks later. Or is it my suspicious mind playing with me?:confused:

Its your suspicious ,but optomistic mind ,playing with us:)

[ohpark0119]

funny how the index goes down and AIR goes up. Hoping for market crash lol

[Nasi Goreng]

May be selling some stuff that has topped, MEL, SKC, SUM and some of that going into AIR which has been over done.

[stoploss]

funny how the index goes down and AIR goes up. Hoping for market crash lol

logical don't you think bearing in mind the index has gone up this year and AIR NZ went down ?

[see weed]

Its your suspicious ,but optomistic mind ,playing with us:)
How do ya think I feel? I gota live with me, and was banging my head against the wall last Friday after selling a block at $1.72c, then that big buyer came in half an hour later and pushed it back up to 1.745. So have been buying them back ever since:mellow: at the higher price. The positive is am now in the green by about $2000 with av price of $1.758c, and don't have to pay any tax next year,so far. Last time I did this was on 30/8/12 and sold for $1 then had to buy them back the next day for $1.04c knowing I'd made a mistake. Then they kept going to $3:). Don't know how far they will go this time.

[skid]

How do ya think I feel? I gota live with me, and was banging my head against the wall last Friday after selling a block at $1.72c, then that big buyer came in half an hour later and pushed it back up to 1.745. So have been buying them back ever since:mellow: at the higher price. The positive is am now in the green by about $2000 with av price of $1.758c, and don't have to pay any tax next year,so far. Last time I did this was on 30/8/12 and sold for $1 then had to buy them back the next day for $1.04c knowing I'd made a mistake. Then they kept going to $3:). Don't know how far they will go this time.

maybe you lost a tiny bit by selling --but coming late in the game seems to have worked out well in general--If Im reading this correctly

We'll see if you have indeed called this right or made a mistake (I mean ,you've gotta be right some time eh?)--(predictions)

[see weed]

maybe you lost a tiny bit by selling --but coming late in the game seems to have worked out well in general--If Im reading this correctly

We'll see if you have indeed called this right or made a mistake (I mean ,you've gotta be right some time eh?)--(predictions)
Who knows? Didn't think it would rise so fast. In the green $5000 now:).

[oldtech]

Remains to be seen if the rise will continue? So far the share price has not crossed the 50 day EMA, which is still trending downwards (or so it looks to me). Would be interested to hear a TA viewpoint on this.

Disc: Still got a way to go before I get back in the green! :eek2:

[see weed]

Remains to be seen if the rise will continue? So far the share price has not crossed the 50 day EMA, which is still trending downwards (or so it looks to me). Would be interested to hear a TA viewpoint on this.

Disc: Still got a way to go before I get back in the green! :eek2:
Grabbed another 20,000 this morning. We all know it's worth over $1.90? So when does TA tell you to start buying....maybe at $1.85, I'm just getting in early before the rush:D.

[oldtech]

Good on you see weed ... unfortunately I've spent my budget so won't be topping up any time soon.

[vin]

Grabbed another 20,000 this morning. We all know it's worth over $1.90? So when does TA tell you to start buying....maybe at $1.85, I'm just getting in early before the rush:D.

Big Balls Sea Weed! Respect! I hope the SP shoots up for your sake and ours!

[bull....]

im still watching 1.74, oil price doesn't help sentiment

held at long term support :) which also happened to be 50% fib support around this number as well , that consolidation breakdown was a fake out at the lows just need it to get back to 1.95 and ill be able to square out my capital loss and pocket the div - cross fingers

[Tony Two Gloves]

Sorry team, been following not posting of late. Just curious I'm in similar to "Working Dad" and was considering a double down and wonder if the feeling of missing the boat in the early 170's is appropriate? Have a sizable position owing $1.865 so no point at present but still believe fair value is around $2.10.

[Beagle]

Sorry team, been following not posting of late. Just curious I'm in similar to "Working Dad" and was considering a double down and wonder if the feeling of missing the boat in the early 170's is appropriate? Have a sizable position owing $1.865 so no point at present but still believe fair value is around $2.10.

FOMO v FOMT, an interesting conundrum. Fear of missing out v Fear of more turbulence

[workingdad]

Sorry team, been following not posting of late. Just curious I'm in similar to "Working Dad" and was considering a double down and wonder if the feeling of missing the boat in the early 170's is appropriate? Have a sizable position owing $1.865 so no point at present but still believe fair value is around $2.10.

For me fair value is not going to bring me to buy the additional shares although it means I am happy to hold what I have already. With the 35c divvy and todays pricing I'm sitting about even.

What I want to see is a more settled environment and share price stability which I am yet to see, considered it again in the low 1.70s but the volumes and sell off is still a factor and its nothing to do with the FA of AIR, sentiment is weighing on price as is the global concerns and perhaps plenty cashing up. I am happy to miss a 10c swing when I do double down to avoid risking further erosion in capitol investment, long term my thoughts are the same, AIR is a good place to park some money and grab some divvys over the years and wait for a strong rebound but I'm not thinking we are missing out on bagging a bargain just yet.

[see weed]

Steady as she goes. Up one cent daily is what we want, right up to $1.90 and beyond. Living under the new flight path in OTH and have a good view of the new AIR planes going over from my office window. Very graceful just gliding past and saying...buy me buy me, I am new and cheap to run and giving 11%+ yld. Don't regret not getting in early in the 1.70s and 1.80s when sp is back to $2+ with even more buyers being carroted in with the 10c div:t_up:.

[see weed]

The new low is $1.715. Did anyone notice Fridays low then jumped 3c to $1.745 in the afternoon? Then on close they had a big order in at 1.745, so the sp would close on that price and no lower, then yesterday the same thing happened but 1c higher at 1.755. It is like someone is supporting sp from falling. At this rate we will be back to 1.80 by weeks end and 1.90 a couple of weeks later. Or is it my suspicious mind playing with me?:confused:
Looks like that someone is back again but at 1.80 now:).
.

[couta1]

Looks like that someone is back again but at 1.80 now:).
. They want 306k shares at $1.80,bless them.

[Beagle]

They want 306k shares at $1.80,bless them.

I wondered if that was you mate, just topping up your holding a little bit :D

[Tony Two Gloves]

I thought it was you topping up Couta :)

Roger beat me to the post!

[Tony Two Gloves]

Actaully if he bought on market we would be at $1.90........

[couta1]

I wondered if that was you mate, just topping up your holding a little bit :D I wish, that would certainly pull down my average, whoever it is, it's a good test to see how many weak holders are still lurking around.

[couta1]

Actaully if he bought on market we would be at $1.90........ He is buying on market.

[see weed]

Lets all hold hands, hold our breath, and jump in and buy 10,000 each and see if we can push sp up to 1.85:D. You go first Roger, and we will all follow:).

[Beagle]

Lets all hold hands, hold our breath, and jump in and buy 10,000 each and see if we can push sp up to 1.85:D. You go first Roger, and we will all follow:).

I'm not sure about this holding hands thing mate LOL

[Tony Two Gloves]

Sorry meant at market sell prices - will he move from $1.80 is the question.....

[Jantar]

Sorry meant at market sell prices - will he move from $1.80 is the question.....
Would you?

[arc]

Something strange on the ANZ display for AIR
1 person ask with "0" quantity and an empty cell for the "Price" field.....?

Hope the place hasent been Back-Door-Hacked like that incident in the US a while ago.

[777]

Also on PEB and a few others

[couta1]

Something strange on the ANZ display for AIR
1 person ask with "0" quantity and an empty cell for the "Price" field.....?

Hope the place hasent been Back-Door-Hacked like that incident in the US a while ago. It's being looked into, just a system glitch apparently, doesn't affect trades but annoying nonetheless.

[Tony Two Gloves]

No if he is happy to buy at $1.80 I have a feeling he will get them. As previous posters have stated we need an 'event" to switch the downtrend, nothing has really happened to influence one way or the other. Although I feel we have recovered that 0.05C we lost when Cam Wallace sold his shares last week and peeved everybody off - what a powerful man or at least his actions were.

[Raz]

No if he is happy to buy at $1.80 I have a feeling he will get them. As previous posters have stated we need an 'event" to switch the downtrend, nothing has really happened to influence one way or the other. Although I feel we have recovered that 0.05C we lost when Cam Wallace sold his shares last week and peeved everybody off - what a powerful man or at least his actions were.

Like what I see today:-)

[Tony Two Gloves]

Like what I see today:-)
Yep every man and his dog wants AIR @ $1.80 - sellers are saying no!!

[peat]

The bond issue was reduced in size from $75M to $50M and interest rate set at 4.25% (higher than expected)
I guess I dont need to interpret this for y'all.

[Beagle]

I have had an absolute ton of e.mails about Z's corporate bond issue so I think they are also struggling to fill their issue. I think at these low level's there are very few merits to tying up one's money for 6 years or so in the very low 4% range to any corporation.

Flipping the coin over the other way, who wouldn't want to borrow for 6 years fixed at 4.25%...so why would you lend at this rate !

[longy]

I'm not sure about this holding hands thing mate LOL

I am kinda relieved that not join at the hips... :)

[see weed]

My GIBTA (Get In Before TA) and FA has been telling me to buy buy buy in the 1.70s and 1.80s. What do you think 1.90 by next weeks end? The 1.80 man is still supporting there, then $2 by Christmas - New Year ready for 10c div in 8 weeks from then:t_up:.

[Beagle]

I'd like to think we hit the bottom at $1.71.5 recently. It has certainly been quite strong since then in what has otherwise been a very weak market.

[see weed]

I'd like to think we hit the bottom at $1.71.5 recently. It has certainly been quite strong since then in what has otherwise been a very weak market.
Scored 8000 at 1.715c on 13/10/16, but also bought two other lots on the same day for 1.79 and 1.74. The 1.79 was bought on open 1.74 half way through day and 1.715 on close, from memory:).

[Beagle]

Scored 8000 at 1.715c on 13/10/16, but also bought to other lots on the same day for 1.79 and 1.74. The 1.79 was bought on open 1.74 half way through day and 1.715 on close, from memory:).

Nice buying mate. Migration and tourism keeping steamrolling on at record levels https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-migration-tourism-hits-new-highs-september-b-195770

[Snow Leopard]

Nice to see the SP back on the right side of the all important $1.78.

Waiting for the next round of valuations, see if they see it the way I see it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[see weed]

Nice to see the SP back on the right side of the all important $1.78.

Waiting for the next round of valuations, see if they see it the way I see it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


$2.25c-$2.30c?

[King1212]

Nice to see the SP back on the right side of the all important $1.78.

Waiting for the next round of valuations, see if they see it the way I see it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

your last couple posts in AIR were full of negativity....and now u saw the sp flying n want a new valuation..wonder what is your motive...:eek2:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00968/analysts-revise-down-air-nz-share-price-and-earnings-targets.htm

[couta1]

$2.25c-$2.30c? Nah,Analysts will probably do an upward revision once 2017 looks to be a boomer of a year in general for Air despite the competition, and especially for the domestic market. Coutas target price remains unchanged at $2.50-$2.60.

[skid]

your last couple posts in AIR were full of negativity....and now u saw the sp flying n want a new valuation..wonder what is your motive...:eek2:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00968/analysts-revise-down-air-nz-share-price-and-earnings-targets.htm

I have no idea what his motive is. But heres the thing King. Anyone who always has the same motivation ,or viewpoint ,has their head in the sand. And that goes for whether the SP is on its way up, or down--The smart money know when to change his/hers mind accordingly-so now its a matter of determining whether that ''up'' is going to continue,or if its a ''false start'' (which is whats its all about) as far as whether so and so is loading up..or making predictions with no additional info.....Who Cares?

[Raz]

That slippery poster..take you pick... has a lot to say for one who does not actually appear to invest..when i state a positive or a negative i back it up with an actual investment/divestment :-) Lets call it authentic vs ... comments, what a great weekend to be in NZ:-)

[King1212]

I have no idea what his motive is. But heres the thing King. Anyone who always has the same motivation ,or viewpoint ,has their head in the sand. And that goes for whether the SP is on its way up, or down--The smart money know when to change his/hers mind accordingly-so now its a matter of determining whether that ''up'' is going to continue,or if its a ''false start'' (which is whats its all about) as far as whether so and so is loading up..or making predictions with no additional info.....Who Cares?


Well,,,for the amount of stars that someone earned on sharetrader web..thier posts have to be fair..don't u all agree?

[BlackPeter]

folks - make love, no war ... and no feline bashing - please!

I find it difficult to understand why any serious investors wouldn't like to get the good with the bad ... it is just so much easier to make wrong decisions if you look just into one corner.

This is obviously assuming that we are all prepared to question our judgement and are prepared to change our decisions if the context changes. People who just fall in love with a stock obviously don't want to see the other side, but than - falling in love with a stock is a quite bad investment strategy.

Discl: I like cats and I hold AIR (but not in love with it ...);

Please - lets keep this forum open for all views ... even if you don't like them - and if the only thing you have to say is something bad about another poster, than - why not just keep quiet?

[RGR367]

Again, it's always nice to have your views get subjected to scrutiny. It would make this thread, and this Forum for that matter, a boring place if we all say the same thing about a particular stock.

[blackcap]

Nice to see the SP back on the right side of the all important $1.78.

Waiting for the next round of valuations, see if they see it the way I see it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The way I read the above quote:

The right side of $1.78 means to the right so higher than 1.78. The left side would mean under 1.78.
Then he/she says they waiting for valuations.

So no comment on whether they are bullish or bearish. Just statements of fact with no opinion.

Why ppl get their knickers in a twist I do not know.

[Snow Leopard]

your last couple posts in AIR were full of negativity....and now u saw the sp flying n want a new valuation..wonder what is your motive...:eek2:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00968/analysts-revise-down-air-nz-share-price-and-earnings-targets.htm

I have counted to $1.78 in 1 cent increments and I am still appalled by this reply.

I suggest you actually read those 'last couple posts' and then apologise to me on this thread.

Until then you are officially Tiger Prey.

[King1212]

I have counted to $1.78 in 1 cent increments and I am still appalled by this reply.

I suggest you actually read those 'last couple posts' and then apologise to me on this thread.

Until then you are officially Tiger Prey.

u can keep your best wishes...pt...;)no hurt feeling. U are free to put your views n people are free to reply and interpret it.

Mean while..Tiger balm will soothe your chest if u need it...

[see weed]

My GIBTA (Get In Before TA) and FA has been telling me to buy buy buy in the 1.70s and 1.80s. What do you think 1.90 by next weeks end? The 1.80 man is still supporting there, then $2 by Christmas - New Year ready for 10c div in 8 weeks from then:t_up:.
Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.

[percy]

Back testing over the last 5 years the most reliable EMA has been the 400 day.
At present it sits at $2.38 and is still falling,so until the sp moves up past it I think it would be prudent to hold one's self "at the ready."

[Beagle]

"Fly Like a Beagle" Perhaps the stripey one was referring to the classic Beagle Terrier

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beagle_Terrier

[winner69]

The MA1000 looks pretty usefull

Currently 210.8

Bounced off it twice in June and July so seems to havesome influence.

Break through MA1000 and it could be all on again -- or maybe MA1000 might be real resistance

Prefer the good old Fibonacci levels though

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.mysoti.com/img/user/mericadylan/product/web/1690246/1690246_show_default.png
One revised valuation for AIR is lower than previous. More will probably follow.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

http://www.mysoti.com/img/user/mericadylan/product/web/1690246/1690246_show_default.png
One revised valuation for AIR is lower than previous. More will probably follow.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Jeez, if one analyst lowers his valuation others will follow

Herd mentality and all that

(Had to use 'herd' as there is no name for a group of tigers, because groups of tigers don’t really exist in the wild or in captivity)

[winner69]

Jeez, if one analyst lowers his valuation others will follow

Herd mentality and all that

(Had to use 'herd' as there is no name for a group of tigers, because groups of tigers don’t really exist in the wild or in captivity)

Even though tigers are generally loners I have it on good authority that if tigers do get together they becomes a 'streak' of tigers ....or even an 'ambush' of tigers .....hmmm

[skid]

You guys are actually going on valuations now??? That controversial subject deserves a thread of its own (theres been some real doozies!---PEB comes to mind)

meanwhile its perfectly understanding that when the SP falls,like it has. theres going to be some frustration (every ones human)--But why the knotted knickers after a pretty good rise,is beyond me...(I would have thought celebrations)