AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

http://www.mysoti.com/img/user/mericadylan/product/web/1690246/1690246_show_default.png
One revised valuation for AIR is lower than previous. More will probably follow.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Go on Tiger...you know you want to put all four paws and legs to good use and get some serious AIR in that coat of yours, if you shampoo your fur and then rinse it off you sure won't need to blow dry it :)
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=fly+like+a+beagle&&view=detail&mid=C38B4F9C5876EE07D79AC38B4F9C5876EE07D79A&FORM=VRDGAR....OR a fine example of forward thinking I'm getting in now and wishing everyone goodwill for the forthcoming Christmas season
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Snoopys+Christmas&&view=detail&mid=D0F54203AE49CCB9198BD0F54203AE49CCB9198B&FORM=VRDGAR

I think AIR will make steady progress from here. Analysts have been following AIR's SP around up and down like a puppy dog for quite some time now so I have little faith in their predictive power and besides all that all a reputable Beagle is really interested in is the size of his feed and I reckon we're good for years of 2 x 10 cps full imputed so this hound will stay extremely well fed and may need to consider a serious exercise regime...like chasing large cats.

[Hoop]

Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.
From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle..

Best Investment Strategy for Long Term Investors
When ones portfolio stock (such as AIR) doesn't meet the criteria of steady upward trend of earnings with constant good margins during all economic periods including boom and bust (Buffett criteria)...the following options should be used.
When a non-criteria stock enters into a bear cycle investors should:...
either
swap strategies, going from Sailing (passive..buy & hold.. Bull Market Strategies).. to.. Rowing (active...using Bear Market investing strategies)
or
cash up and wait until the stock reverses back into a bull cycle..

Rowing means being active therefore watching for entries at the beginning of each sucker rally and prepare to exit near a major resistance when those rallies fail to break through...Resistances can be a wide range of things from TA indicators to trading behaviours..so some rowing traders may not be using TA but other methods to determine their entries and exits...some successful rowers have great "gut feel" abilities.

In some ways AIR is a victim to the above strategies..the share price falls as there is less "available" money thereby making the stock weak and so rallies peter out due to lack of buying demand..and the major group investor bear mindset (the Gorilla) takes over and governs the trading behaviour of the stock irrespective of the current FA conditions..

Bear Market conditions frustrate the minority, the "believers" (who may be right), but their efforts to portray their message fails to persuade the majority group (who maybe wrong).. This is equivalent to "farting against thunder" therefore to be successful one recognises who's the boss is when there is a Gorilla in the room and devise a survival strategy..In the case of Share Investing if you opt not to leave the room the best survival (Capital) strategy against the Gorilla is the "rowing" strategy, irrespective of what beliefs you may hold.

Where is AIR share price at?..
The Bollinger bands are tightening suggesting a change of trend or change in tempo...As the share price hasn't got much of a trend it's any ones guess which way the share price is going to go...If it goes up there's resistances at $2 and a $2.20 - $2.35 zone .....Be mindful that any rally is most likely be a sucker rally searching a top around those prices.. If it goes down there's minor support at $1.65....
AIR is a very risky stock when playing with the bear...Due to it's higher Beta I would expect the experienced player (too large an ego to stay away) to suffer a few claw marks..


Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread

[Snow Leopard]

From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle...
...Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread

As I apparently need to spread some reputation around before I am allowed to quietly praise you I am going to do so very publicly and encourage everyone who can to hit the reputation icon.

Great post Hoop!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

Nice post..I agree it is even my ego that gets me trading on this share:-)

[winner69]

AIZ up on ASX today

That's a good sign for tomorrow

[BlackCross]

Saw four friends off from AKL on AirNZ yesterday. What a hassle on those damn self checking machines - and the three members of AirNZ there to help did not seem interested. Two years ago, just after the machines were installed, I had a similar problem and the rather elderly member of staff who who supposedly helped booked me to Europe and my bags to Sydney. Anyway, that's another four people who, like me, will stick to Emirates in future. Better service, prettier staff and so much better choice of entertainment on board.

[BlackPeter]

Saw four friends off from AKL on AirNZ yesterday. What a hassle on those damn self checking machines - and the three members of AirNZ there to help did not seem interested. Two years ago, just after the machines were installed, I had a similar problem and the rather elderly member of staff who who supposedly helped booked me to Europe and my bags to Sydney. Anyway, that's another four people who, like me, will stick to Emirates in future. Better service, prettier staff and so much better choice of entertainment on board.

Not quite PC, but I see (and noticed myself) what you mean ;); One other thing - don't forget that Emirates has a higher luggage allowance (30 kg for economy, 40 kg for business) ... comes handy for long distance travel.

... and I don't say that to beat AIR up ... but hope that they learn from the competition.

[BlackCross]

Ironically my largest holding at the moment is AIRNZ and I do fly domestically with them but, although many of the staff are great, I do sometimes find some of the staff, as happened yesterday, seem to have a 'job for life' mentality.

I hope the management are taking note of the SkyTrax awards this year...AirNZ 17th again and way behind at least 5 other airlines that fly out of AKL regularly.
http://www.worldairlineawards.com/Awards/world_airline_rating.html

[winner69]

Ironically my largest holding at the moment is AIRNZ and I do fly domestically with them but, although many of the staff are great, I do sometimes find some of the staff, as happened yesterday, seem to have a 'job for life' mentality.

I hope the management are taking note of the SkyTrax awards this year...AirNZ 17th again and way behind at least 5 other airlines that fly out of AKL regularly.
http://www.worldairlineawards.com/Awards/world_airline_rating.html

Must be something wrong with the way it's done

AIR isn't even #1 for Australasia/Pacific -- Qantas is

[Beagle]

Fortunately for this Beagle he's been training to row using two sets of oars, one for each pair of paws and he's been known to occasionally use his tail for propulsion too :)

[see weed]

Good post Hoop. There is also good support at $1.80. My sister arrives tomorrow from LA on AIR. The other airline she had booked got cancelled due to lightening strikes in San Francisco. Good ol AIR to the rescue:).ps Have a few claw marks from the past.

[bull....]

looking good at the moment, good presentation by ceo to London investors has turned the tide

[stoploss]

Lets all hold hands, hold our breath, and jump in and buy 10,000 each and see if we can push sp up to 1.85:D. You go first Roger, and we will all follow:).

That worked see weed 1.815 - 1.89 .

Whats the next trade ?

[Beagle]

The hound pawed his way through today's travel section in the N.Z. Herald and noted no let up in the special deals including $699 return to Honolulu of Hawaiian airlines and $1490 return to London on Malaysian airlines with service from K.L. on one of their A380's. Certainly the other airlines have maintained pricing pressure even if some of the shorters have closed their positions.

Disc: Hounds dislike extreme turbulence.

[brend]

The hound pawed his way through today's travel section in the N.Z. Herald and noted no let up in the special deals including $699 return to Honolulu of Hawaiian airlines and $1490 return to London on Malaysian airlines with service from K.L. on one of their A380's. Certainly the other airlines have maintained pricing pressure even if some of the shorters have closed their positions.

Disc: Hounds dislike extreme turbulence.

this hound is about to purchase tickets through Cathay Pacific. Price difference in total was $1k compared to AIR.:scared: Funny enough half the distance is still traveled on AIR though.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Its up, up & away - glad to see $1.90 :)

Wasn't following closely enough but I don't think the big buyer at $1.80 got filled, anybody know?

[dobby41]

Its up, up & away - glad to see $1.90 :)

The optimism in this thread never ceases to amaze me.
Up for a few days and the sky is the limit.

[winner69]

$2 is a nice round number

Nice round numbers often act as support and resistance levels

If AIR breaks through $2 then $2 probably be a strong support level - get through $2 and won't see a 1 in front of the share price for a while as it heads up to previous high levels

C'mon $2

And there be some Fibs along the journey as well

[sb9]

$2 is a nice round number

Nice round numbers often act as support and resistance levels

If AIR breaks through $2 then $2 probably be a strong support level - get through $2 and won't see a 1 in front of the share price for a while as it heads up to previous high levels

C'mon $2

And there be some Fibs along the journey as well

Lots of happy chaps on this thread after horrid past few weeks. Well at least Mr Luxon could convince the investor as far as in London to make sure AIR is worthy investment, good on him...

[Tony Two Gloves]

The optimism in this thread never ceases to amaze me.
Up for a few days and the sky is the limit.
Appears your glass might just be half empty.........

[Master98]

More like UK investors kick in, let's see how high they will kick to.

[LegendOfRiot]

Managed to get in at $1.85 recently, but I'll be comfortable with some fluctuation since I'll be holding medium-long term for the divvy.

[Raz]

Only gained modest volumes in the 170s so lets see if we trade on a suckers rally:-)

[bonmaklad]

Thank golly gee gosh for that... thought id be selling the house the way it was going!

[Yoda]

Has the reported net profit 2016 of $463 mil got any unusual extras in it compared to the 327 the year before ? The last 4 years has been steady growth, or is this year some false growth added ?
Did the issue with Virgin come into play here?

[see weed]

That worked see weed 1.815 - 1.89 .

Whats the next trade ?
Didn't think it would get there that fast. More and more buyers kept on coming all day. Am still buying,and will carry on until.....$2.10..$2.20....When are the TAers due to start buying?...2.10....2.20? All us GIBTA's can sit back for a while and ride the second wave up when the TA people start buying, or will some get in early and start buying in the 1.90's. I wouldn't be surprised see $2 by Christmas:t_up:. Happy hunting out there.

[winner69]

Has the reported net profit 2016 of $463 mil got any unusual extras in it compared to the 327 the year before ? The last 4 years has been steady growth, or is this year some false growth added ?
Did the issue with Virgin come into play here?

The $463m included $143m of bad stuff (Virgin, settlements etc) so was really $606m.

Good eh

[Yoda]

Thanks winner.
so EPS. Goes from 2012, $6.3, 16.5, 25.8, 30.9, 53.4 (inc after specials deducted) And the SP drops from $3 to under $2 ? That doesn't make sense. Why the sudden price drop on a profit of over 50% ?
I understand that this years profit will be a lot less probably .

[OldGuy]

Thanks winner.
so EPS. Goes from 2012, $6.3, 16.5, 25.8, 30.9, 53.4 (inc after specials deducted) And the SP drops from $3 to under $2 ? That doesn't make sense. Why the sudden price drop on a profit of over 50% ?
I understand that this years profit will be a lot less probably .

You just answered your own question :)

However, I know what you mean. The recent drop in SP does seem to defy the recent earnings growth. Fact is that the market can be volatile, and any whiff of bad news can see the SP fall far more than it should on the basis of fundamentals. Such volatility is largely a reflection of market sentiment, which in turn is largely driven by fear and greed. Welcome to the financial markets! :D

[Raz]

You just answered your own question :)

However, I know what you mean. The recent drop in SP does seem to defy the recent earnings growth. Fact is that the market can be volatile, and any whiff of bad news can see the SP fall far more than it should on the basis of fundamentals. Such volatility is largely a reflection of market sentiment, which in turn is largely driven by fear and greed. Welcome to the financial markets! :D


I bought in for two reasons, the price was low mid 170-180 as well i think their marketing and pricing strategy has improved of late, they are being smart in how they are holding up prices, selling packages from regional areas and matching low volumes discounts by their competitors. I expect a firm result.

Having said that i would be even more aggressive on their marketing with a focus on competitors weaknesses distributed via social media...

[Beagle]

Thanks winner.
so EPS. Goes from 2012, $6.3, 16.5, 25.8, 30.9, 53.4 (inc after specials deducted) And the SP drops from $3 to under $2 ? That doesn't make sense. Why the sudden price drop on a profit of over 50% ?
I understand that this years profit will be a lot less probably .

I suspect a number of people were shorting the stock until recently. The tone of many repetitive negative posts on here suggested some posters had a financial interest in talking the stock down.
That and uncertainty over the effect of extra competition going forward into FY18 and beyond.

[bull....]

oil price may have peaked short term adding to favourable air, good for air as there still in the black for hedging $2 maybe coming?

[Tony Two Gloves]

Didn't think it would get there that fast. More and more buyers kept on coming all day. Am still buying,and will carry on until.....$2.10..$2.20....When are the TAers due to start buying?...2.10....2.20? All us GIBTA's can sit back for a while and ride the second wave up when the TA people start buying, or will some get in early and start buying in the 1.90's. I wouldn't be surprised see $2 by Christmas:t_up:. Happy hunting out there.
$2 by Christmas - not that I'm a blatant ramper but I seriously think we will be over $2 by the end of the week!

[Beagle]

$2 by Christmas - not that I'm a blatant ramper but I seriously think we will be over $2 by the end of the week! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[see weed]

$2 by Christmas - not that I'm a blatant ramper but I seriously think we will be over $2 by the end of the week!
And it's only a short week, so get in fast and grab a bargain. Bought another 14,000 this morning, new av price is now up $19,000:t_up:.

[winner69]

Only gained modest volumes in the 170s so lets see if we trade on a suckers rally:-)

No 'suckers' here Raz

No worries

[bull....]

held at long term support :) which also happened to be 50% fib support around this number as well , that consolidation breakdown was a fake out at the lows just need it to get back to 1.95 and ill be able to square out my capital loss and pocket the div - cross fingers

im out of my trading lot close enough to target 1.94, 1.95 is fib resistance etc etc so needs to get above there now I reckon for more advance looks stretched in the short term

[BlackPeter]

No 'suckers' here Raz

No worries

Technically the SP is still ways below MA50 and MA200 - so I think the chances for a sucker rally (or a dead cat bounce) are at least as good (or actually higher) than the chances for a trend change away from the still intact downtrend.

Not trying to pick on you - there are some others blatantly ramping on this thread ... and I guess it can be fun as long as people read this similar to the talk of supporters of one rugby team in a match ... one group of supporters is likely to be right and one group of supporters is likely to be wrong. You can't decide which team wins by listening to just one group of supporters ... and even listening to both supporter groups is no good.

Just worried about people who might base their investment decisions based on this chatter ... enjoy it, lough about it, read previous pages of this thread and look what happened with past "predictions" of some of the more active posters on this thread ... and take lots of care before you invest real money.

Discl: holding and watching very closely

[see weed]

If this is a bad day on the market with a lot of red everywhere and AIR is in the green, then it just shows how oversold it was in last couple of weeks. Do prefer it to creep up 1c or 2c a day until it reaches it's fair value rather than a big jump like yesterday. Still good buying at this price with 10%+ yld:).

[Beagle]

(20/0.72) / 191.5 = 14.5% Gross Yield

[sb9]

(20/0.72) / 191.5 = 14.5% Gross Yield

Hence the reason for being pretty resilient in an otherwise underwhelming market at the moment.

[couta1]

The big boys are back selling again today after a wee break.

[Master98]

The big boys are back selling again today after a wee break.
dear couta, buyers still on place maybe just a tiny correction.

[Snow Leopard]

So now two recent AIR valuation down grades, seems knocking $0.10 off is the way to go.

All the usual concerns and bottom of the earnings cycle still seen as being 3 years away at least.

Airline industry analysts, depressed bunch the lot of them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

So now two recent AIR valuation down grades, seems knocking $0.10 off is the way to go.

All the usual concerns and bottom of the earnings cycle still seen as being 3 years away at least.

Airline industry analysts, depressed bunch the lot of them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Never trust a bunch of schizophrenic analysts, strange how none of the six has had a sell recommendation on the stock despite all these downgrades, but wait theres more as one of them now has an outperform rating on the stock. Talk about mixed messages, just as well I trust my own judgement on Air and not this fickle bunch.

[arc]

Never trust a bunch of schizophrenic analysts, strange how none of the six has had a sell recommendation on the stock despite all these downgrades, but wait theres more as one of them now has an outperform rating on the stock. Talk about mixed messages, just as well I trust my own judgement on Air and not this fickle bunch.

Are you kidding... A professional broker doesn't use the "Sell" word, their job would be on the line. Its only the web-bloggers that aren't directly employed as brokers who say such things.

re-weighting, normalising, adjusting, lateral decision making,
My all time favourite was a broker who expressed the 2007-2008 market downturn as...modulated optimism...

[OldGuy]

newsflash: brokers profit from buy AND sell transactions...

[Beagle]

Average analyst EPS FY17 34 cps, FY18 29 cps...looks like our dividend is nice and safe.

I see Qan looking forward to their first Dreamliner next year...AIR will have 9 by this Christmas.

[clifton]

Silly me booked with a competitor On a flight to New Plymouth. Never again!

[Bobdn]

Average analyst EPS FY17 34 cps, FY18 29 cps...looks like our dividend is nice and safe.

I see Qan looking forward to their first Dreamliner next year...AIR will have 9 by this Christmas.

At Sydney airport. Air NZ flight to Auckland (Dreamliner) has just been cancelled due to mechanical problems. The guy on the tannoy said that the aircraft is a very technical aircraft and (being completely serious here) they tried turning the computers off and restart them but that didnt work. A part now has to come from Auckland or Melbourne. Meal vouchers have been dispensed.

[BlackCross]

Take the hard drive out and put it in the freezer for 10 minutes...sometimes worked with PC's running win95.

[Rep]

I had a flight to Queenstown on Air NZ a few months ago when taxiing to the runway, the pilot announced that he had an issue with the A320's avionics computer.

After returning to the gate and ground crew coming aboard, it was advised that it wasn't working properly and that the ground following radar wasn't functioning which was noted was fairly important given we had an approach into mountainous terrain. Consensus amongst passengers that this was a very sensible reason not to continue.

Fortunately there was a 'spare' A320 on a gate at Auckland so after a delay to transfer luggage and cargo as well as fuel it up, we were able to board and head off. Although we were delayed about 90 minutes, everyone seemed reasonably in good spirits and we were well informed by a polite and apologetic crew.

[winner69]

At Sydney airport. Air NZ flight to Auckland (Dreamliner) has just been cancelled due to mechanical problems. The guy on the tannoy said that the aircraft is a very technical aircraft and (being completely serious here) they tried turning the computers off and restart them but that didnt work. A part now has to come from Auckland or Melbourne. Meal vouchers have been dispensed.

You home yet bob?

[Beagle]

Planes are like boats, they need LOTS of TLC.

[Bobdn]

You home yet bob?

Home. It got going in the end :)

[bull....]

looks like short term over brought has subsided, drop in oil price is positive

[Beagle]

Some good banter between Chris Luxon and Sir Bob Jones on NBR behind the paywall for those invested to get access. Nothing meaningful in terms of shedding any light on anything commercial, just some good banter.

[see weed]

Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.
Have to agree, still good buying under $2.10c. Anyone else still buying? Just picked up another 8000 @ $1.91c:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Good value but this hound is curled up in his kennel waiting for more favourable weather, (positive overall market conditions).

[couta1]

Good value but this hound is curled up in his kennel waiting for more favourable weather, (positive overall market conditions). Hopefully there won't be too many stray cats or other rodents wandering past your kennel in the mean time to stir you up.

[percy]

Have to agree, still good buying under $2.10c. Anyone else still buying? Just picked up another 8000 @ $1.91c:t_up:.

A trust I am envolved with added to our AIR holding today.Hobson Wealth [were Macquaries] rate them as a buy.
We have also been buying THL.

[arc]

Have to agree, still good buying under $2.10c. Anyone else still buying? Just picked up another 8000 @ $1.91c:t_up:.



Waiting till after Trump gets elected ....and you can pick them up for $0.80c

[see weed]

Waiting till after Trump gets elected ....and you can pick them up for $0.80c
Picked up some for 84c, 87c, and 89c in sept 2012 when they had all the old planes:).

[jimbo]

Waiting till after Trump gets elected ....and you can pick them up for $0.80c

May [insert deity] have mercy on our souls...
I follow a couple of US stock discussion boards in the advanced biomanufacturing sector (er, companies that were advanced biofuels before the oil price sank) and I'm constantly surprised by the number of pro-Trump supporters present. There seems to be such a disconnect between their political wishes and what would actually be good for the companies they are investing in. Then again, those boards are also heavily populated by day traders who seem to benefit from volatility more than anything.

[Raz]

May [insert deity] have mercy on our souls...
I follow a couple of US stock discussion boards in the advanced biomanufacturing sector (er, companies that were advanced biofuels before the oil price sank) and I'm constantly surprised by the number of pro-Trump supporters present. There seems to be such a disconnect between their political wishes and what would actually be good for the companies they are investing in. Then again, those boards are also heavily populated by day traders who seem to benefit from volatility more than anything.

As a trader the reality is Hillary foreign policy is going to cause major volatility, just not on the day she is elected..only difference between the two from that perspective :-) The media have a disconnected what a lot of voters may actually do..so be well position just in case...

[sb9]

Punters bit indifferent today, hardly any volume so far...

[see weed]

As a trader the reality is Hillary foreign policy is going to cause major volatility, just not on the day she is elected..only difference between the two from that perspective :-) The media have a disconnected what a lot of voters may actually do..so be well position just in case...
Whatever happens, whoever wins, people are still gona fly and drink our NZ wines, so my sister says. She flies back to the states next week on AIR. The sp was so oversold in the last few weeks, and is in recovery mode.

[couta1]

Whatever happens, whoever wins, people are still gona fly and drink our NZ wines, so my sister says. She flies back to the states next week on AIR. The sp was so oversold in the last few weeks, and is in recovery mode. Yep holding stocks in essential services is the way to go regardless of the political climate, people still have to eat, fly and use a phone.

[777]

Yep holding stocks in essential services is the way to go regardless of the political climate, people still have to eat, fly and use a phone.

And if there is a big market correction then where are these travellers going to cut expenditure. International travel springs to mind.

[see weed]

And if there is a big market correction then where are these travellers going to cut expenditure. International travel springs to mind.
Sis has been flying back once or twice a year for the last 40 years, whatever the political party:).

[dobby41]

Yep holding stocks in essential services is the way to go regardless of the political climate, people still have to eat, fly and use a phone.

When did flying become an essential service?

[couta1]

Time to batten down the hatches over the next while, expect extreme turbulence to affect all stocks while all the panic merchants sell in fear.

[Jantar]

When did flying become an essential service?
Ever since rail and sea became for excursions and holidays only. If you want to travel for anything other than relaxation then air is the only option.

[couta1]

Ever since rail and sea became for excursions and holidays only. If you want to travel for anything other than relaxation then air is the only option. Well said, I wasn't going to answer his question with it being the year 2016 rather than 1916.

[cyclist]

Time to batten down the hatches over the next while, expect extreme turbulence to affect all stocks while all the panic merchants sell in fear.

Crikey! See what you mean. I expect there may have been quite a few stop loss (trigger) orders hiding just below $1.90. I was tempted to do that myself, but decided to keep it manual.

[dobby41]

Ever since rail and sea became for excursions and holidays only. If you want to travel for anything other than relaxation then air is the only option.

While air travel is essential if you want to holiday overseas holidaying overseas isn't essential in itself.
Therefore air travel isn't essential.
Not like food and a roof!

[couta1]

While air travel is essential if you want to holiday overseas holidaying overseas isn't essential in itself.
Therefore air travel isn't essential.
Not like food and a roof! The word essential has a subjective meaning according to the individual and to a vast number of people air travel for various reasons fits that definition. PS-Snowsports are not essential either yet thousands of young ones arrive in NZ each year to hit the slopes while living the most basic of lifestyles.

[dobby41]

The word essential has a subjective meaning according to the individual and to a vast number of people air travel for various reasons fits that definition. PS-Snowsports are not essential either yet thousands of young ones arrive in NZ each year to hit the slopes while living the most basic of lifestyles.
It is certainly subjective but context counts for a lot.
You said


Yep holding stocks in essential services is the way to go regardless of the political climate, people still have to eat, fly and use a phone.

I would contend that air travel is not essential therefore holding stock in AIR can't be considered "holding a stock in an essential service".
In a downturn overseas holidays is one of the 1st things to be shelved, food would be one of the last.

[Jantar]

While air travel is essential if you want to holiday overseas holidaying overseas isn't essential in itself.
Therefore air travel isn't essential.
Not like food and a roof!
Why limit travel to holidays?
I head off to Queensland on Saturday to compete in the PanPacific Masters games. It isn't a holiday as I hope to get at least 1 medal, and air travel is the only way to get there. I suppose sport is optional, yet these event do still get held even in economic downturns.
In April I am going to Vienna for a scientific conference. Again, not a holiday and air travel is the only way to get there. I guess conferences are also optional, yet they still get held even in economic downturns.

In modern times even freight is being handled more and more by air rather than sea. So I do not dispair of air travel suddenly ceasing.

[Snow Leopard]

New Zealand currently brews more Jet Fuel than it consumes !

NZ tourism boom soaks up jet fuel supplies (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1611/S00119/nz-tourism-boom-soaks-up-jet-fuel-supplies.htm)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[dobby41]

In modern times even freight is being handled more and more by air rather than sea. So I do not dispair of air travel suddenly ceasing.

I wouldn't expect it to cease and never suggested that.
When I have heard people talk about essential services air travel has never been in the conversation.
I'm not sure what you are trying to suggest? That, in a downturn air travel will continue unabated then I think you are wrong. In a down turn air travel will be more affected than food or power - true essential services

[Beagle]

A modern thriving economy requires a decent amount of transport infrastructure which is why many Government's around the world hold a stake in their national airline as they deem that to be in their national interest.

Seatbelt's fastened we could be in for some "trumped up" turbulence.

[Robomo]

The economic downturn in Australia has mildly affected passenger numbers for Qantas and Virgin. Airline margins are small so even a slight drop in passenger numbers, reduced airfares and slightly reduced use of aircraft will have a disproportionate effect on profit margin.

[Cool Bear]

Why limit travel to holidays?
In modern times even freight is being handled more and more by air rather than sea. So I do not dispair of air travel suddenly ceasing.

In my previous life working in a big airline, we found that when the world economy went down, airfreight volume actually goes up. A few reasons. One is that to be competitive, you have to get your goods to market faster. Another is that in lean times, your inventory levels goes down and so you have to move goods faster.

[stoploss]

Just to add to the debate , interesting article here .
Personally could see less of the budget family holiday to say Brisbane in any economic downturn , and a lot more competitive pricing .

http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-air-travel-continues-to-grow-1474250520

[winner69]

Good on Mr Carter in rolling over his $30,000 worth of bonds

[see weed]

Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.

[BlackPeter]

Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.

It depends ... if Hillary comes in, you are right - it will be business as usual and the markets will start worrying about something else (like e.g. the next Fed interest hike ...).

However - if Trump comes in (and yes, BREXIT might be a good example) - how do you think the markets are going to react when the leading world currency suddenly drops by 10 to 20 percent?

Sure - the world economy can probably deal with a Brexiting UK (representing prior to BREXIT 3.5% of world's GDP, now more like 3%), but a USA-EXIT (representing 25% of world GDP) from the world economy? Different order of magnitudes.

If Trump wins we can expect a long and deep world economical crisis ... no point in worrying about days or months - this will be more like a decade or so (and a replacement for the thin skinned bully) until the world might start to recover from that.

And looking at AIR - how many Chinese tourists do you think will still come to New Zealand when a trade war between China and Russia (on one side) and the US (and probably some of its Western allies) is waging? How many less business trips will we need into a country which puts lots of duties on our products?

Make no mistake - if this election goes the wrong way, we all will feel it - for a long time to come.

[Beagle]

Hilliary Clinton at $1.36 on Centrebet in Australia so she's NO certainty to win, that's for sure. I remember when Team N.Z. had won 8 races in the America's cup and looked like a certainty to win it. The N.Z. TAB had them at $1.01 and we all thought it was a certainty they would win the ninth race and take the America's cup didn't we !...so stranger things have happened in terms of the outside horse winning a two horse race.

If Trump gets in we are basically in unchartered waters and at the least we will have a new era of uncertainty.
That said AIR are a very well managed company with moderate debt so are well positioned to meet any challenges going forward.

[couta1]

Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me. In the USA corporations do not control the Government, in the USA corporations are the Government. With that thought in mind I agree with your sentiment see weed, whoever wins(Please not that Trump clown) it won't have a long lasting effect on the share market once the real Government(Banking Cartel) stamps their feet.

[see weed]

Clinton and Trump are just a figure head, just like Reagan, sort of like a show pony. The rest of the pawns will advise/make all the decisions while the ponies fly around being show ponies with 1000s of support staff hopefully on AIR if they ever come to NZ for a ski trip or geyser watch. Life goes on, with people who can't afford to fly, will still fly, like catching a bus. Not like the old days when it was just for the well off. And we will still collect divs:).

[skid]

Clinton and Trump are just a figure head, just like Reagan, sort of like a show pony. The rest of the pawns will advise/make all the decisions while the ponies fly around being show ponies with 1000s of support staff hopefully on AIR if they ever come to NZ for a ski trip or geyser watch. Life goes on, with people who can't afford to fly, will still fly, like catching a bus. Not like the old days when it was just for the well off. And we will still collect divs:).

Nevertheless he can still do alot of damage---The USA would have major trust issues which is not good for the leading economy

Meanwhile if that happens people will still fly ,but a much bigger % will go with more competitive airlines (unless AIR becomes much more competitive--which they will ,because they will have to --that then affects the balance sheet,and your precious div.) But of course there are all sorts of ''maybes'' involved in that scenario (just like all your predictions):) scary times

[skid]

Hilliary Clinton at $1.36 on Centrebet in Australia so she's NO certainty to win, that's for sure. I remember when Team N.Z. had won 8 races in the America's cup and looked like a certainty to win it. The N.Z. TAB had them at $1.01 and we all thought it was a certainty they would win the ninth race and take the America's cup didn't we !...so stranger things have happened in terms of the outside horse winning a two horse race.

If Trump gets in we are basically in unchartered waters and at the least we will have a new era of uncertainty.
That said AIR are a very well managed company with moderate debt so are well positioned to meet any challenges going forward.

This FBI thing reminds me of that race team NZ should have won(with the low wind) but it didnt count because of the time limit (so it would be good for TV in terms of fitting time slots)--They were by no means becalmed

If Hillary loses it will be pretty hard not to point the finger at the FBI---its a real shame Trumps 13yo rape victum lost her nerve to speak out.

[Vaygor1]

This FBI thing reminds me of that race team NZ should have won(with the low wind) but it didnt count because of the time limit (so it would be good for TV in terms of fitting time slots)--They were by no means becalmed

If Hillary loses it will be pretty hard not to point the finger at the FBI---its a real shame Trumps 13yo rape victum lost her nerve to speak out.

.. or lost her nerve to publicly lie perhaps.

[Beagle]

Skid, yeah I remember that race very well. Pure frustration... Gents may I respectfully suggest that perhaps we should move any further discussion on Trump to either the off market section where there's a thread on the U.S. election http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10527-US-Presidential-Race or the black Monday thread in this section to discuss market impact as it sure will be black if Trump wins, (albeit not a Monday)

[Bobdn]

I wonder if Air would be better off not hedging oil prices at all. They'd have saved a bundle over the last few months.

[Zaphod]

I wonder if Air would be better off not hedging oil prices at all. They'd have saved a bundle over the last few months.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. Who would have precited that a presidential election in the US would potentially have such a significant impact on the markets? Then again, a Clinton win will see markets re-stabilise and things return to a relatively normal state, and if AirNZ had changed their hedging position this could have proven financially more detrimental than maintaining the status quo.

[percy]

I would expect a business such as an airline, whose forward sales make up a good part of their income, would need to protect their forward costs as much as possible.So hedging would be wise.

[Zaphod]

I would expect a business such as an airline, whose forward sales much up a good part of their income, would need to protect their forward costs as much as possible.So hedging would be wise.

And so they do. I suspect the argument is really around what level of hedging is appropriate, to which there is no definitive answer.

[777]

It is my understanding that the hedging is calculated with a formula that is dependant on forward bookings.

[Beagle]

They've done very well out of their hedging this calendar year. They moved to their maximum allowable, (within their own rules) hedged position in late January 16 when oil was just on U.S.$30 barrel.
Hedging for all airlines was terrible last year when oil fell dramatically and airlines that don't hedge did very well as a result. There is always a cost to hedging, both visible, see any NZX attachment, (I will find one and post a link) and invisible, the staff required to monitor and initiate the hedging programme. Yes all business's need to know their costs but I often wonder if over the long run taking into accounts wins and losses from hedging whether all that really results is all the significant costs from the programme.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241795.pdf

The above is their last fuel hedge disclosure in August. If you check the bottom two lines to the right you'll see that on a net basis after costs they are ~ U.S.$20m in credit this year from hedging but that was after purchase costs of options totaling a whopping ~ U.S.$16.5m. How many staff are on significant six figure salaries running this programme as well ?
Good they got it right this year but last year they got it horribly wrong, (as did almost everyone else when oil collapsed in price), but I guess my point is if you're incurring direct hedging costs of the magnitude noted above plus unknown staff costs how is it possible to win from this in the long run ?
My analysis shows on average AIR carries at any one point in time ~ 2 months passenger sales of forward bookings. Given forward bookings aren't on average that far out maybe they'd be better to simply "wing it" when it comes to aviation fuel costs and save themselves truck loads of costs every year ?

[winner69]

Hedging all about managing certainty / risk management - not gambling per se

[winner69]

These Dreamliners get in the headlines quite often

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86133255/emergency-at-auckland-international-airport

[Beagle]

These Dreamliners get in the headlines quite often

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86133255/emergency-at-auckland-international-airport

See what happens when you don't hedge your fuel costs :)

[janner]

Competition..

British Airways will be Mooo ving more passengers in Cattle Class

https://www.rt.com/uk/365434-british-airways-seats-economy/

Could this be Baa aa d for AIR ??

[winner69]

Cam the Revenue Guy cashing up part of his wages cheque - sells 47k shares

[winner69]

Cam the Revenue Guy cashing up part of his wages cheque - sells 55k shares

[Beagle]

Dislike how many senior exec's treat their share incentive scheme (which is something that meant to keep them invested and motivated), as little more than an ATM machine with shareholders the ones paying out the cash !

[couta1]

Dislike how many senior exec's treat their share incentive scheme (which is something that meant to keep them invested and motivated), as little more than an ATM machine with shareholders the ones paying out the cash ! Agree, and this guy is a repetitious offender, he hasn't been with Air that long either, let's just call him a tosser to make us all feel better.

[brend]

Dislike how many senior exec's treat their share incentive scheme (which is something that meant to keep them invested and motivated), as little more than an ATM machine with shareholders the ones paying out the cash !

I look after a few ANZ senior execs that do the same. They cash up as soon as they can....

but yes disappointing...

[workingdad]

Might be breaking the term deposit sooner than I thought with good ol trump looking likely to be the next commander and chief......

On a good note, the oneup upgrade for the flight to aussie with the family went through, another $420 into AIRs account and the mrs and 3 kids get to join me in the spaceseats :)

[Raz]

Might be breaking the term deposit sooner than I thought with good ol trump looking likely to be the next commander and chief......

On a good note, the oneup upgrade for the flight to aussie with the family went through, another $420 into AIRs account and the mrs and 3 kids get to join me in the spaceseats :)

spaceseats to aussie..you sure on that?? when started flying larger aircraft over the tasman??

[workingdad]

spaceseats to aussie..you sure on that?? when started flying larger aircraft over the tasman??

777-300 says spacesseat on our selections ;)

[Raz]

777-300 says spacesseat on our selections ;)

Ok 777 to aussie..ok only seen 737 etc previous...

[777]

Ok 777 to aussie..ok only seen 737 etc previous...

There has always been a mixture of narrow bodies and wide bodies on the Tasman.

[RTFQ]

Ok 777 to aussie..ok only seen 737 etc previous...

The wide bodies are used daily SYD BNE MEL to pickup freight for Europe, Asia and US . It saves them double handling as the A320 containers are a different size.

[couta1]

Air one of the only stocks that doesn't look broken today, Spark my other big holding is getting Trumped big time having a big US shareholder base.

[axe]

Assuming lots of bookings on AIR flying out of Houston to NZ :)


Air one of the only stocks that doesn't look broken today, Spark my other big holding is getting Trumped big time having a big US shareholder base.

[Snow Leopard]

Assuming lots of bookings on AIR flying out of Houston to NZ :)

But planes flying to US empty :(.

We would appear to have a $1.94 altitude limit on the share price at present :mellow:.



I have been bombarded with adverts for flights to here, there and everywhere :t_up:.

I have been bombarded with emails and one phone-call by private jet brokers :confused:.

And now I am being bombarded by flight-crew recruitment specialists :scared:.

I hope Air New Zealand do not start losing their pilots & co-pilots :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc ad nausem: fly'em don't buy'em.

[skid]

But planes flying to US empty :(.

We would appear to have a $1.94 altitude limit on the share price at present :mellow:.



I have been bombarded with adverts for flights to here, there and everywhere :t_up:.

I have been bombarded with emails and one phone-call by private jet brokers :confused:.

And now I am being bombarded by flight-crew recruitment specialists :scared:.

I hope Air New Zealand do not start losing their pilots & co-pilots :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc ad nausem: fly'em don't buy'em.

Just what do you do PT?--You obviously seem to be in the industry.

[Jantar]

And now I am being bombarded by flight-crew recruitment specialists :scared:.

I hope Air New Zealand do not start losing their pilots & co-pilots :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc ad nausem: fly'em don't buy'em.

Qantas are currently looking for 200 pilots for A350 and B787s. My son has applied to transfer from Australia domestic to one of these new planes, and commented that he is competing against almost 2000 applicant for one of those positions. It is likely that many of those applicants are from AIR

[Snow Leopard]

Just what do you do PT?--You obviously seem to be in the industry.

Over the course of the last 36 years (I did not realise I was that old :mellow:) I have at various times worked in the aviation industry, firstly in electronics, and then software related areas.

However the current inundation of my inbox and similar almost certainly arises from an overzealous ticking of the fields of interest boxes at the 2016 Singapore Air Show.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Failed to gain security clearance to be allowed to go air-side at Melbourne Airport.

[skid]

Over the course of the last 36 years (I did not realise I was that old :mellow:) I have at various times worked in the aviation industry, firstly in electronics, and then software related areas.

However the current inundation of my inbox and similar almost certainly arises from an overzealous ticking of the fields of interest boxes at the 2016 Singapore Air Show.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Failed to gain security clearance to be allowed to go air-side at Melbourne Airport.

Those field of interest boxes are dangerous indeed---information ,coming either way is a valuable commodity.:)

[Raz]

Those field of interest boxes are dangerous indeed---information ,coming either way is a valuable commodity.:)

Zip to do with the airline industry however fly with a number of airlines on a regular basis..the volume from all airlines of emails and direct approaches is at fever pitch and Emirates is doing extra special stuff for frequent flyers...can't be good for margins.

[Raz]

Zip to do with the airline industry however fly with a number of airlines on a regular basis..the volume from all airlines of emails and direct approaches is at fever pitch and Emirates is doing extra special stuff for frequent flyers...can't be good for margins.

Had so many call from overseas...world wide media exposure... after the EQs..interesting to see if a sell off today Especially tourism related stocks...

[couta1]

Had so many call from overseas...world wide media exposure... after the EQs..interesting to see if a sell off today Especially tourism related stocks... On days like today the NZX should simply be closed for business to focus on what's important, tomorrow's another day.

[Raz]

On days like today the NZX should simply be closed for business to focus on what's important, tomorrow's another day.

That would be appropriate

[see weed]

On days like today the NZX should simply be closed for business to focus on what's important, tomorrow's another day.
Passengers might have to fly by AIR with roads closed, kiwi rail down and ferries cancelled. Thank you AIR for a good reliable service in these shaky times. Does AIR have helicopters?

[777]

Passengers might have to fly by AIR with roads closed, kiwi rail down and ferries cancelled. Thank you AIR for a good reliable service in these shaky times. Does AIR have helicopters?

Luck. The Wellington runway could easily have been damaged and taken weeks to repair.

[Joshuatree]

My nephew did manage to make it from the city (Welly)and catch his AIR flight to Auck on time. was touch and go for a while with transport etc all brought to a stand still until infrastructure inspections etcwere done. Int wellington Airport very early said it would be open 6 am while there was still a tsunami alert on for lyall bay and surrounds.

[Beagle]

On days like today the NZX should simply be closed for business to focus on what's important, tomorrow's another day.

Agree 100% with you mate but on the other hand its nice to see the market open and people aren't panicking. FBU up, as many would have expected. To be honest I am a little surprised some of the listed property stocks haven't taken a hit with the fear and uncertainty of what damage has been incurred. Good welly airport is all go and no major disruption to air travel...we need that, unfortunately it looks like South Island road and rail will be affected for quite a considerable time. Wonder how Blenheim airport has been affected ?

Lucky Passengers
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/london-bound-thomas-cook-flight-makes-emergency-landing-after-collision-with-50-storks/ar-AAkfZ1c?li=AA5249&ocid=spartandhp
Bit lucky both engines kept working, (sort of)

[Beagle]

Zip to do with the airline industry however fly with a number of airlines on a regular basis..the volume from all airlines of emails and direct approaches is at fever pitch and Emirates is doing extra special stuff for frequent flyers...can't be good for margins.

Can't help but wonder if consumers generally are getting a little blasé about cheap travel deals now ? We've had cheap fuel for a while now so cheap just becomes the new normal doesn't it and its a bit like a Briscoes sale that happens every single week, usually twice a week with them. In my opinion the noise is now too much and if people are like me they'll be reacting by simply starting to ignore so called special opportunities and just buy when they want too and probably end up paying more by booking at the last minute, (like I did with my trip this week to Queenstown). Perhaps that's AIR's cunning subversive plan, beat people to death with grossly excessive marketing noise so they put all marketing channels on the ignore setting and then pay full price at the last minute...cunning plan, worked with me !

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11748081

best airline in the world....with big juicy dividend

[couta1]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11748081

best airline in the world....with big juicy dividend Feeling proud, no doubt the resident feline will find some way to put a negative spin on things.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11748081

best airline in the world....with big juicy dividend

Always admired how Air New Zealand dynamically recaptiualize interdependent growth strategies

And this award shows that it works

[winner69]

Media Report "Berkshire Hathaway's just released SEC filings show that the company has taken a stake in three of the four major airline companies — American Airlines, United Continental Holdings and Delta Air Lines.

But CNBC can report exclusively that Berkshire also has taken a stake in the fourth major carrier, Southwest Airlines."

I've sent a message to Warren that AIR is best airline in world .....and the best investment in the world.

[777]

I am sure that Buffett use to say "never buy airline shares".

Hopefully senility is not setting in.

[Snow Leopard]

Feeling proud, no doubt the resident feline will find some way to put a negative spin on things.

And a very good morning to you too cootie - stay safe.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

And a very good morning to you too cootie - stay safe.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Yes being severely shaken and drenched does tend to cause a certain kinda melancholy, cootie now that sounds quite cute, I like it.
Best Wishes
Cootie

[Bobdn]

Yes being severely shaken and drenched does tend to cause a certain kinda melancholy, cootie now that sounds quite cute, I like it.
Best Wishes
Cootie

So, um, just so we're clear a "cootie" is a body louse. Maybe you should just keep signing off as Couta1.

[RupertBear]

So, um, just so we're clear a "cootie" is a body louse. Maybe you should just keep signing off as Couta1.

Awww I kinda like "Cootie" :D I dont think it was meant as an insult :confused:

[Snow Leopard]

http://assets.amuniversal.com/b58fa160deb901317193005056a9545d

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

So, um, just so we're clear a "cootie" is a body louse. Maybe you should just keep signing off as Couta1. Hmm perhaps you are right, after further study of various definitions of the word, it would appear what sounds cute ain't always cute.

[peat]

always admired how air new zealand dynamically recaptiualize interdependent growth strategies

and this award shows that it works

could you correct the typo so that I might even have a chance of understanding what you mean (probably not)

[stoploss]

Never say never ....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-fuels-surge-in-airline-stocks-2016-11-15

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-has-just-taught-investors-a-valuable-lesson-again-2016-11-15?mod=MW_story_top_stories

[King1212]

Never say never ....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-fuels-surge-in-airline-stocks-2016-11-15

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-has-just-taught-investors-a-valuable-lesson-again-2016-11-15?mod=MW_story_top_stories

good old Buffet...:t_up:

[couta1]

good old Buffet...:t_up: He's a bit slow though, I mean he could have been investing in our top quality, profit making, excellent divvy paying airline years ago now couldn't he.

[Hoop]

He's a bit slow though, I mean he could have been investing in our top quality, profit making, excellent divvy paying airline years ago now couldn't he.
...dementia?

[arc]

He's a bit slow though, I mean he could have been investing in our top quality, profit making, excellent divvy paying airline years ago now couldn't he.

He may be betting on increased American travelers to both local and international destinations based on Trumps policies.
- Tax cuts for the top income earners means more to spend on leisure
- Theoretically stimulated economy results in additional overseas travel (He has already finished the acquiring phase, and did so while prices were well down on this present level)
- Airlines acting as freight carriers, the stimulated economy will require many small to medium weight technology/engineering articles (most of my equipment comes from UK/Europe).

We are already seeing increased numbers of well to do Americans wanting to buy/live Here, and fly back there as required for periodic management tasks.

I wonder if he is also looking at Shipping. ??

[Tony Two Gloves]

He obviously is an avid reader of this thread - think his name might be Couta1........

[fish]

...dementia?
definitely not
Risky-possibly
timing-could be very astute

[Tony Two Gloves]

$2.00 today team - who is with me??

[winner69]

Cramer on why Buffett buying airlines

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/cramer-what-changed-warren-buffetts-mind-about-the-airlines.html

Same reasons make AIR a compelling BUY

[sb9]

$2.00 today team - who is with me??

That'll be closer to breaking even on my original purchase excl recent divvy...bring it on!!!

I'm sure it'll get there sooner....if not today.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Warren Buffets new enthusiasism for airlines seems to be at odds with this headline;

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ual-strategy-boeing-idUSKBN13A27P

Warren has accumalated more filthy lucre than me so the odds are his opinions are worth more than mine.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Tony Two Gloves]

Yeah baby!!





AIR.NZX - Air New Zealand Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares










Last
VWAP
Buy
Sell
High
Low
First
Volume
Value




200 ¢
(NZD)





3
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
1.5%





16/11 16:59 NZT


NS






198.06
199.5
200
200
196
197.5
1,467,008
$2,905,628

[see weed]

My GIBTA (Get In Before TA) and FA has been telling me to buy buy buy in the 1.70s and 1.80s. What do you think 1.90 by next weeks end? The 1.80 man is still supporting there, then $2 by Christmas - New Year ready for 10c div in 8 weeks from then:t_up:.
I wonder if the TA people have started to buy in yet.:)

[couta1]

I wonder if the TA people have started to buy in yet.:) Must be time for a certain FA divvy seeking hound to buy back in also, some of us are missing the hounds enthusiasm around here.:cool:

[Snow Leopard]

I wonder if the TA people have started to buy in yet.:)

Well there are TA people and then there are TA people.

Depending upon the time-frames they work on some will have bought in a month ago and some since and some are maybe waiting still.

Main thing is that it well north of $1.78.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Tiger current valuation $2.32; DYOR; Beware of the vegetarian option.

[cyclist]

Must be time for a certain FA divvy seeking hound to buy back in also, some of us are missing the hounds enthusiasm around here.:cool:

I suspect he is a well trained hound and knows not to chase things!

[babymonster]

Buffett can change the sentiment of air line industry.

[Beagle]

Must be time for a certain FA divvy seeking hound to buy back in also, some of us are missing the hounds enthusiasm around here.:cool:

Funny you say that. The dog has been licking his "trump" wounds and wondering if he should join in the hunt again.

[see weed]

Funny you say that. The dog has been licking his "trump" wounds and wondering if he should join in the hunt again.
Come on Roger, be a daredevil, jump back in. My new holding is up from the $1.70 days. Or you could buy some more HLG in the meantime for a few weeks and collect a nice big div first;).

[Beagle]

Come on Roger, be a daredevil, jump back in. My new holding is up from the $1.70 days. Or you could buy some more HLG in the meantime for a few weeks and collect a nice big div first;).

Well done mate you picked the bottom well. Less clear is whether after a reasonable recovery if there's any further short term gains to be made ?
I think Paper Tiger makes a good point that the operating environment is somewhat different for AIR than for the heavily consolidated American airline industry.
Tourism remains strong but increased competition to N.Z. appears to have stifled yields to the point where its having more of an effect on AIR than QAN is experiencing in its operating performance.
Hounds don't like chasing their tails, quite an unnatural activity...for a dog.

[skid]

Well done mate you picked the bottom well. Less clear is whether after a reasonable recovery if there's any further short term gains to be made ?
I think Paper Tiger makes a good point that the operating environment is somewhat different for AIR than for the heavily consolidated American airline industry.
Tourism remains strong but increased competition to N.Z. appears to have stifled yields to the point where its having more of an effect on AIR than QAN is experiencing in its operating performance.
Hounds don't like chasing their tails, quite an unnatural activity...for a dog.

The Trump rally may be losing a bit of steam in USA as investors start to digest--the next week may show whether is business as usual or a change in sentiment.--(his transition team is apparently in turmoil--but its early days)--He seems to have done a lousy job so far.--Your not the only one licking their wounds---(cant believe JK has already talked to Trump--guess it was unavoidable because of the earthquake....I was kind of hoping we would stay under the radar in that sense....makes me uncomfortable being ''noticed'' by Trump.

[Beagle]

Hi Skid,

Yes I am very cautious of the trumped up rally on the U.S. markets. Its predicated on the assumption he can run a stable administration and get some traction through congress for his idea's of rebuilding America. Then there are issues of the affordability of any attempt to rebuild industry in the rust belt states. Already we have seen a massive increase U.S. 10 year treasuries.
I'd prefer to see some evidence of stability...all we see so far is instability and assumptions of growth coming from expansionary theories, (many would argue are simply trumped up with little economic rationale) so the hound remains watchful and cautious, lest he gets thumped.
Based on my observations this week, there's no such thing as an off season in Queenstown anymore and AIR's planes on that domestic route sure are full but the prices people are paying to get to N.Z. and the number of new competitors are the key issues for AIR. By way of example look at these prices for travel to Europe on quality airlines. http://www.houseoftravel.co.nz/hot-deals?filter=UKE-FLIGHTS-2017

[couta1]

No worries Roger, huge domestic demand coming up in 2017, no guarantees of stability in this unstable world mate and no security in money, no matter where you put it.

[Baa_Baa]

I was wondering whether the CH earthquake affected overall passenger numbers, given the recent North Canterbury quakes. Does seem to have had a minor short term effect but what also shows up is the solid growth, and improved performance, though some indicators topping out.




(m’s)
Available seat Km’s
Revenue passenger Kms


YE
PAX (m's)
ASKs (m’s)
Load Factor
RPKs (m’s)
Yield cents/RPK


Jun-06
11.9
34,055
75%

$0.121


Jun-07
12.5
35,113
76.50%

$0.130


Jun-08
13.2
36,991
79.30%

$0.130


Jun-09
12.4
34,316
79%
$27,112
$0.138


Jun-10
12.3
31,578
81.80%
$25,829
$0.128


Jun-11
13.1
32,353
83.40%
$26,996
$0.131


Jun-12
13.1
32,618
82.80%
$27,013
$0.135


Jun-13
13.4
33,167
83.60%
$27,733
$0.136


Jun-14
13.7
33,396
84.10%
$28,078
$0.137


Jun-15
14.3
35,601
84.10%
$29,934
$0.137


Jun-16
15.2
39,684
83.70%
$33,223
$0.135



845684558454

[skid]

Hi Skid,

Yes I am very cautious of the trumped up rally on the U.S. markets. Its predicated on the assumption he can run a stable administration and get some traction through congress for his idea's of rebuilding America. Then there are issues of the affordability of any attempt to rebuild industry in the rust belt states. Already we have seen a massive increase U.S. 10 year treasuries.
I'd prefer to see some evidence of stability...all we see so far is instability and assumptions of growth coming from expansionary theories, (many would argue are simply trumped up with little economic rationale) so the hound remains watchful and cautious, lest he gets thumped.
Based on my observations this week, there's no such thing as an off season in Queenstown anymore and AIR's planes on that domestic route sure are full but the prices people are paying to get to N.Z. and the number of new competitors are the key issues for AIR. By way of example look at these prices for travel to Europe on quality airlines. http://www.houseoftravel.co.nz/hot-deals?filter=UKE-FLIGHTS-2017

RT to Bangkok for $1000 with Thai air.June -Sept..Hmmm..tempting..bit early though

I see Trump is already reneging on his ''drain the swamp'' and choose major lobbyists (major establishment) to choose his ministers according to what suits their business interests --same ole, same ole, american politics of conflict of interest---that will pale in comparison to what Trump will do to fleece the system--This will be the biggest con in history--already he's trying to get ''security clearance''so his kids get in on all the juicey info to take advantage of--Man ,it reeks over there.--I wish JK would just keep his mouth shut rather than get Trumps attention---God knows what he would do here.

[Beagle]

No worries Roger, huge domestic demand coming up in 2017, no guarantees of stability in this unstable world mate and no security in money, no matter where you put it.

Hi mate, Yes I've been pondering that latter point which is well said. To get any kind of return on your money there is risk and even with Government stock there is some risk. At the current generation low interest rates cash in the bank is merely an option to buy something cheaper at a later date, while unless there's an Armageddon type event generally preserving one's capital base.

So where too for AIR's SP in the short term ???

AIR's main rival in this part of the world does seem to be doing quite well. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161031/pdf/43cgwx313twbyv.pdf
In this market update which I don't think ? has been discussed in this thread before they're looking at $800-$850m underlying operating profit before tax on the reduced number of shares due to the buy-back of 1,874b. Looks like about $580m after tax or A31 cents per share in earnings for the first half.

On the other hand AIR are forecasting at their mid-point $500m before tax for the full year which gives about $360m after tax and on 1,123m shares = N.Z.32 cps.

Keep in mind these two companies did about the same EPS for the full year last year so we are now seeing quite a significant divergence in their earnings. It would appear that QAN's current strategy of cost control, running older tech planes in a low oil price environment and carrying more leverage in a ultra low interest rate environment as well as doing a significant share buy-back is really starting to work in terms of earnings per share. With QAN's relative outperformance they're slowly becoming a more formidable competitor and their business model is working extremely well given the heightened competition all carriers face.

Based on 4 traders average estimates AIR trade on a 2018 forward PE of 6.73 times whereas QAN trade on only 6.02 times.
2018 PE's for Delta are 8.2, United 9.8 and American Airlines 9.3.

On a forward dividend yield basis AIR has the comparison shot to bits. No reason that I can see why they can't pay 20 cps fully imputed for the foreseeable future. 20 / 0.72 = 27.78 cps gross which on today's closing price of $1.98 = gross yield of 14%.

The American carriers have had quite a rally in the last few months and both QAN and AIR have underperformed by comparison. How each would perform if there's some sort of market reality check, (which I think is fairly likely) is anyone's guess.

[Marilyn Munroe]

It was the Virgin (under arm bowlers division) AGM today. The news from the meeting is their low cost carrier subsidary (West Tigers NRL branding.) was going to ditch its A320's for 737's.

In an interview after the meeting the CEO said the LCC was keen to expand single-isle international services.

Hmm!; lets do some joined up thinking. Expansion + 737's(flight range) + International Services. Could he mean Cullen Airlines home patch?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

It was the Virgin (under arm bowlers division) AGM today. The news from the meeting is their low cost carrier subsidary (West Tigers NRL branding.) was going to ditch its A320's for 737's.

In an interview after the meeting the CEO said the LCC was keen to expand single-isle international services.

Hmm!; lets do some joined up thinking. Expansion + 737's(flight range) + International Services. Could he mean Cullen Airlines home patch?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

The AGM was 'yesterday' 16th Nov and not 'today' 17th Nov.

The A320 to B737 was announced in July.

but yes they could fly to NZ, whether they will is another matter.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: posted 7:44pm TLT (Tiger's Local Time)

[Jantar]

The AGM was 'yesterday' 16th Nov and not 'today' 17th Nov.

The A320 to B737 was announced in July.

but yes they could fly to NZ, whether they will is another matter.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: posted 7:44pm TLT (Tiger's Local Time)
Virgin already do fly to New Zealand. I flew with them last week to Brisbane. Service and comfort is no where as good as AIR, but the only direct flights available out of Dunedin.

[Zaphod]

UA Basic Economy - Perhaps a great fit for Grabaseat fares?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11750174

[Beagle]

UA Basic Economy - Perhaps a great fit for Grabaseat fares?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11750174

Its just as bad as Jetstar right at the back of an AIR A320. Suffered misery class on our flight to Queenstown this week. On principle I object to paying extra for seat select so we didn't and we were allocated seats 29A and B right at the back where the fuselage comes around and cramps you right up. I swear the seat pitch is worse at the back too, knees rammed right in hard against the seat in front just like on Jetstar.
My wife had the very cramped window seat and ended up getting claustrophobic from the experience and had trouble breathing after suffering a mild panic attack and had to have oxygen. At least the staff were very nice, sympathetic and helpful, unlike any I have met on Jetstar. From now on we'll ante-up and begrudgingly pay the extra $10 each for the exit row seats which are the only ones on an A320 to have truly generous leg room. AIR staff were extremely nice and kind to my wife and I...as I have always found them to be. The flight was fully loaded so there was nowhere else for us to be shifted too, just plenty of oxygen for my wife to help her settle. Fortunately this all happened just before we started our descent. Wonder how she would have coped on a longer flight when the oxygen bottle ran out ?

United's basic economy definitely not for us !

[Snow Leopard]

Virgin already do fly to New Zealand. I flew with them last week to Brisbane. Service and comfort is no where as good as AIR, but the only direct flights available out of Dunedin.

The discussion was with regard to TigerAir (Australia), who do not currently fly to NZ.

There was a young lady from Niger (https://allpoetry.com/Limerick:-There-was-a-Young-Lady-of-Niger)

https://ap-pics2.gotpoem.com/ap-pics/item/8518/887.jpg?255x350

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Its just as bad as Jetstar right at the back of an AIR A320. Suffered misery class on our flight to Queenstown this week. On principle I object to paying extra for seat select so we didn't and we were allocated seats 29A and B right at the back where the fuselage comes around and cramps you right up. I swear the seat pitch is worse at the back too, knees rammed right in hard against the seat in front just like on Jetstar.
My wife had the very cramped window seat and ended up getting claustrophobic from the experience and had trouble breathing after suffering a mild panic attack and had to have oxygen. At least the staff were very nice, sympathetic and helpful, unlike any I have met on Jetstar. From now on we'll ante-up and begrudgingly pay the extra $10 each for the exit row seats which are the only ones on an A320 to have truly generous leg room. AIR staff were extremely nice and kind to my wife and I...as I have always found them to be. The flight was fully loaded so there was nowhere else for us to be shifted too, just plenty of oxygen for my wife to help her settle. Fortunately this all happened just before we started our descent. Wonder how she would have coped on a longer flight when the oxygen bottle ran out ?

United's basic economy definitely not for us !

Geez Roger ,that doesnt sound good,although having nice staff and the use of oxygen would have a made a bad thing a bit better.My wife was put into the very back seat on a flight to Vancouver(didnt recline) and it was no fun. I dont think AIR is particularly good at comfort but I suppose their crew are a positive---Its really how all that stacks up against the price and what you get for paying more. Those domestics can be pretty good if you shop around---its usually who has a special at the time you want to go I reckon.
Ive found that being able to choose seats when going to Thailand with MAL was almost like being bumped up a class--we were able to get the 2 seats by window close to the front.
The first time we just got on the computer and choose the seats free--the second(last winter)they wanted $50 but when I called flight cr where I bought the tickets,they did it for free(?)---long and the short is that its far more important on the longer hauls,but even 2 hrs can be a long time in a really bad seating situation or as in more than one case,your freezing. (Im wondering if the planes they(AIR) use on the Auck-Vancouver route have issues with the dispersal of uniform heat throughout the plane(its happened twice)

[Raz]

Geez Roger ,that doesnt sound good,although having nice staff and the use of oxygen would have a made a bad thing a bit better.My wife was put into the very back seat on a flight to Vancouver(didnt recline) and it was no fun. I dont think AIR is particularly good at comfort but I suppose their crew are a positive---Its really how all that stacks up against the price and what you get for paying more. Those domestics can be pretty good if you shop around---its usually who has a special at the time you want to go I reckon.
Ive found that being able to choose seats when going to Thailand with MAL was almost like being bumped up a class--we were able to get the 2 seats by window close to the front.
The first time we just got on the computer and choose the seats free--the second(last winter)they wanted $50 but when I called flight cr where I bought the tickets,they did it for free(?)---long and the short is that its far more important on the longer hauls,but even 2 hrs can be a long time in a really bad seating situation or as in more than one case,your freezing. (Im wondering if the planes they(AIR) use on the Auck-Vancouver route have issues with the dispersal of uniform heat throughout the plane(its happened twice)

The main advantage with koru is domestically with seat options and selection of seats...great seats at the front..

[skid]

The main advantage with koru is domestically with seat options and selection of seats...great seats at the front..

I realize Rogers experience was not pleasant, but I never personally worry much about seats on short hauls-- Long hauls are much more important---The wife just recently made a dash to Montreal and back with United and reported it was a similar experience to AIR for a fraction of the price---Im not a big fan of United ,but there you go (saving a grand was handy)---no choosing seats though for either.

[Beagle]

The main advantage with koru is domestically with seat options and selection of seats...great seats at the front..

I don't fly often enough to warrant the annual fee. Learned my lesson and we paid the $10 extra for exit row seats on the way back, (I promise not to do a Bob Jones on them), and it was all good.

[Raz]

I don't fly often enough to warrant the annual fee. Learned my lesson and we paid the $10 extra for exit row seats on the way back, (I promise not to do a Bob Jones on them), and it was all good.

Yeah not sure with that Mr Jones..he often in Koru lounges...he can make a flap at times!

[Beagle]

Yeah not sure with that Mr Jones..he often in Koru lounges...he can make a flap at times!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/luxury/70864065/sir-bob-jones-buys-private-jet-and-takes-aim-at-infantile-air-nz

So...he must still have to put up with "infantile nappy statism" on longer haul flights because he didn't buy one with decent range :D

I have to say though that the current AIR inflight safety video is a very lame and weak attempt at humour...one wonders if Chris has been trimming the creative budget...

BTW Queenstown is as lovely as ever...apart from the number of people there which is barely tolerable even in the so called off season. My top tip to get away from the maddening crowds in the off season, go for a drive up the access road to the Remarkables ski field, stunning views and some much needed peace and tranquillity. If you're really keen walk up it ! (Disc the hound is not that keen)

[Bobdn]

I see oil is still super cheap. We must be due for a hedging update soon.

[see weed]

Never say never ....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-fuels-surge-in-airline-stocks-2016-11-15

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-has-just-taught-investors-a-valuable-lesson-again-2016-11-15?mod=MW_story_top_stories
AIR sp=$2.20c before next div. This would be about a 30% gain including div on today's sp, if it went a bit higher all the better. We will find out in less than 16 weeks:).

[OldGuy]

shouldn't AIR have released it latest operating stats by now?

[Beagle]

Probably some time this week and we might get a fuel hedge update too if we're lucky.

[winner69]

shouldn't AIR have released it latest operating stats by now?

Maybe 'late' because October could have been a 38 day month?

[Beagle]

Maybe 'late' because October could have been a 38 day month?

:lol: :lol:

Can't be that hard to record the various months accurately...surely ! Message to Chris, I am available to consult with you on fuel hedging strategies @ $500K per annum, such consultation will include advice on the actual number of days in each month :D

Disc Presently don't own but the hound is known to love big dividend feeds so its only a matter of time before I buy back in, (technically if you add back the 25 cps special divvy the chart looks quite good)..

[Snow Leopard]

Meanwhile in a dimly light room somewhere deep in the basement a statistician awakes, looks around at his still comatose colleagues and then notices the date.

"Oh fish-hooks" he says "How we are going to explain it this time?"

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

Back at $2 and looks like to break out once that level is breached....

[Raz]

Back at $2 and looks like to break out once that level is breached....

22 cents in the good, time to consider my return now rather than dividend later...:-0

[Beagle]

Acknowledge there's a lot of debate about whether to include or exclude the dividend in terms of technical analysis but given its size, if we add back in the 25 cent special dividend, what do you make of the chart Hoop ?

[see weed]

22 cents in the good, time to consider my return now rather than dividend later...:-0
Same here, sold a small parcel today for $3000 profit and bought HLG for big div. My remaining AIR lot are in the green 25c;).

[Bobdn]

If we hit PT's valuation of $2.32 I'll probably sell at that point.

[couta1]

If we hit PT's valuation of $2.32 I'll probably sell at that point. I like my $2.50 target better.

[Bobdn]

Yes indeed:)

[tim23]

Still good shopping at $2 with 10% net divvy likely for some time.

[mayday]

a chance to touch $3 in 12 months I'd say (Donald Trump has won the US election, nothing seems impossible nowadays, it is all rational at the end of day) :)

[Snow Leopard]

If we hit PT's valuation of $2.32 I'll probably sell at that point.

That strikes me as a slight strange thing to do.

Of course, if, eventually, we hit Paper Tiger's valuation of $2.32, Paper Tiger's valuation will have probably changed - either up or down.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Still good shopping at $2 with 10% net divvy likely for some time.

Its hard to argue with that logic. Always risks to the downside and upside but there's not many companies on the NZX capable of paying a sustainable 13.8% gross dividend yield. (20/201) / 0.72
Classic dividend hounds stock.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/electric-vehicles-and-air-new-zealand-major-winners-sustainability-awards-ns-196924

So...with all their electric vehicles costing many millions of dollars they save 65,000 litres of fuel per annum, about the same amount required to fuel up a Dreamliner for a one way trip, once. Hmmmm.
More to the point they should get recognition for working swiftly towards a modern fuel efficient fleet which actually will make a meaningful difference.
Can't help wondering if the judges realise that AIR has a forecast fuel consumption this year of 8,717,190 barrels of fuel = 1,387,602,304 litres so their expensive electric vehicle investment saves 1 / 21348 the year. Meaningful difference...you folks be the judge.

[dobby41]

The EV's get them some nice press so probably worth it.

[couta1]

The EV's get them some nice press so probably worth it. Yep it's all about image and perception.

[OldGuy]

Acknowledge there's a lot of debate about whether to include or exclude the dividend in terms of technical analysis but given its size, if we add back in the 25 cent special dividend, what do you make of the chart Hoop ?

I did this yesterday, and the chart looks VERY different with the latest dividend factored back in. Basically, it hit rock bottom at 2.06 shortly after my entry a few months back, and has since oscillated between there and 2.30. It creates a very different impression to the chart that most of us pore over day after day.... :)

[Beagle]

The EV's get them some nice press so probably worth it.


Yep it's all about image and perception.


I did this yesterday, and the chart looks VERY different with the latest dividend factored back in. Basically, it hit rock bottom at 2.06 shortly after my entry a few months back, and has since oscillated between there and 2.30. It creates a very different impression to the chart that most of us pore over day after day.... :)

Agree x 3. Would be nice if they got the recognition they deserve for the reasons that really make a difference, (very young fuel efficient fleet).

Yes Oldguy, add back the huge special and the chart looks quite good to me. Clearly trading above the 100 day moving average...not many shares on the NZX 50 are doing that at present, (considering we're still basically in market correction territory ~9% down from Sept).

[Baa_Baa]

... add back the huge special and the chart looks quite good to me. Clearly trading above the 100 day moving average...not many shares on the NZX 50 are doing that at present, (considering we're still basically in market correction territory ~9% down from Sept).

To create an accurate SP+dividends chart with MA's, trendlines etc that could be used for technical (chart) analysis, all historical dividend data for AIR should be incorporated. To plot dividend adjusted data (divi removed) and then arbitrarily add back in just the last dividend manipulates the data and creates a meaningless chart.

For example using a reference to two datasets that we do know about, if you took the NZX Capital Index for all time and added in only the dividends from all companies at their last reporting date, the resulting chart would be neither a NZX Gross, nor an NZX Capital dataset. I don't know what you would call it, except meaningless.

[OldGuy]

unless you were only looking at the period since their penultimate dividend payment as I was...

[Snow Leopard]

Div Comp - Not ticked:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20161121-U.png

Div Comp - Ticked:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20161121-C.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bobdn]

I predict 2.03 before Christmas.

[couta1]

I predict 2.03 before Christmas. Must be a typo, did you mean 2.13 or maybe even 2.23.:cool:

[Bobdn]

Nah, just being silly. Just happy that it's over two.

[Beagle]

Div Comp - Not ticked:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20161121-U.png

Div Comp - Ticked:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/NZX-AIR-20161121-C.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Many thanks Paper Tiger. It does look good technically...(at least from this hounds perspective)....how others choose to interpret whichever chart they want to use is entirely their own prerogative :)

[skid]

a chance to touch $3 in 12 months I'd say (Donald Trump has won the US election, nothing seems impossible nowadays, it is all rational at the end of day) :)

Geez..what a name for a poster/shareholder:)

[skid]

Many thanks Paper Tiger. It does look good technically...(at least from this hounds perspective)....how others choose to interpret whichever chart they want to use is entirely their own prerogative :)

Sounds like your ready for another walk on the wild side Roger:)

[winner69]

Big party in Auckland the other night - Sustainable Business Network Awards night

Air NZ won the Renewables Impact section and then -

NZI Greatest Contribution to a Sustainable New Zealand (Supreme Award) Winner – Air New Zealand

Shareholders should feel proud of their company

[winner69]

Press release about that award


http://sustainable.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Awards-winners.pdf


Sustainability permeates Air New Zealand’s business from the purchase of fuel efficient aircrafts to recycling and repurposing old uniforms, diversity workplace programmes, identification of Te Reo speakers on board aircraft and environmental programmes to preserve New Zealand’s natural environment. Furthermore, Air New Zealand’s sustainability framework is guided by an international panel of experts that challenge and advise the airline. All the airline's initiatives can be found

[OldGuy]

anyone else getting nervous about the lack of operating stats???

[winner69]

It was late in month last year

No worries

[OldGuy]

the last couple were mid-month but August was 22.

Guess I've still got my PEB hat on (where any delay in information is usually a very bad thing...) :scared:

[Beagle]

Big party in Auckland the other night - Sustainable Business Network Awards night

Air NZ won the Renewables Impact section and then -

NZI Greatest Contribution to a Sustainable New Zealand (Supreme Award) Winner – Air New Zealand

Shareholders should feel proud of their company

I think that's fair comment. Its certainly got some other companies reconsidering their viewpoint on electric vehicles. Someone had to lead the way so a majority owned airline which is a bit polluter seems like a good natural fit.
Interestingly talking about things that make a real difference, if my memory serves me correctly they'll have nine dreamliners operating for the peak summer season up from six last year and that's a lot for the size of their fleet so their commitment to a fuel efficient fleet deserves the real accolades. You can see the materiality of this clearly in their estimated fuel consumption, (per August 2016 fuel hedging disclosure), estimated fuel consumption IH FY17 4,441,397 barrels, 2H FY17 4,275,793 barrels. I guess getting rid of the old thirsty 767's and replacing them with new aircraft really does make a meaningful difference ! ~166,000 barrels less = 26,400,000 litres less fuel burned..puts their 65,000 litres saved from electric vehicles into perspective doesn't it !

That said my wife and I had a good conversation about electric vehicles last night and agreed that >95% of our trips could be undertaken by a relatively inexpensive near new Nissan Leaf which only cost about $25K.

[Beagle]

At the time of the big announcement, (late August) I suggested that any attempt to strip would take considerably longer than normal due to the dividends size.

I also suggested some of the dividend is built into the price in the short period before it goes ex.

Some cunning people were buying AIR at $2.17 in the afternoon of the profit announcement, so how did those divvy hounds do in the period from the end of August to now if they were cunning enough to hold the whole time, (regrettably I wasn't).

First up one must look at the market overall. According to Craigs its down ~ 9% since the peak in early Sept.

All other things being equal then AIR's SP should be down 9% too $2.17 less 9% = $1.97 but the shares are presently at $2.01. How much of this is to do with effective dividend stripping and how much to do with an oversold bounce from a low of $1.73 ex divvy is frankly anyone's guess.

Conclusion, if you timed your buying right at the time of the announcement and held long enough, nearly 3 months you have effectively stripped this gigantean dividend, albeit ameliorated by a general decline in the market, an perhaps a little fortuitously from a slight recovery in sentiment toward the company, but effectively stripped it on NZX50 general decline weighted basis nonetheless.

This is all probably pretty creative accounting, hence the word cheeky in the title :)

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting article on Jetstar progress in the NZ regional sector, AIR's patch, reporting that not only are they taking a share of AIR's market but that the overall market is greater, put down to low cost fare options. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86742879/jetstars-regional-routes-worth-40m-to-economy-report-finds

[couta1]

Interesting article on Jetstar progress in the NZ regional sector, AIR's patch, reporting that not only are they taking a share of AIR's market but that the overall market is greater, put down to low cost fare options. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86742879/jetstars-regional-routes-worth-40m-to-economy-report-finds They don't say they are taking a share of Air's market but rather they are expanding the market as more people are flying due to lower fares.

[Baa_Baa]

They don't say they have taking a share of Air's market but rather they are expanding the market as more people are flying due to lower fares.

Reading it literally word for word, there is only the oblique reference to "rather than simply cannibalising the incumbent's passenger base".

It would be a long bow to draw to think none of those 600,000 additional Jetstar seats had not cannibalised AIR to some extent.

It's good though that the overall market has increased and good for passengers as price competition is taking effect and more flight options.

[couta1]

Reading it literally word for word, there is only the oblique reference to "rather than simply cannibalising the incumbent's passenger base".

It would be a long bow to draw to think none of those 600,000 additional Jetstar seats had not cannibalised AIR to some extent.

It's good though that the overall market has increased and good for passengers as price competition is taking effect and more flight options. Latest stats are out and domestic demand is up 10.8% and load factor up 2.4%, which would suggest to me that Jetstar are not having any impact on Air's domestic stronghold.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Interesting article on Jetstar progress in the NZ regional sector

Propstar was set up because the Aussie domestic part of Jetstar could not sell their Q300 aircraft, so decided to extract the value from them by flying Propstar in the Shaky Isles.

The Stuff article speculates on adding additional routes. Unless good second hand Q300's are available for purchase and deployment I would be doubtfull of Propstars ability to expand the network. Further they are older aircraft comming to the end of their economic life. If they are withdrawn will Propstar buy new aircraft?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[OldGuy]

are we in a trading halt? Market depth on ASB looks weird, with buys at higher prices than sells but not cleared....

[Baa_Baa]

Latest stats are out and domestic demand is up 10.8% and load factor up 2.4%, which would suggest to me that Jetstar are not having any impact on Air's domestic stronghold.

:confused:

[Beagle]

Operating stat's are out and are much as expected, sound. Note increased use of dreamliners even on shorter haul routes....they have plenty of shiny new fuel efficient planes to go around now !
Latest fuel hedging is out too with no surprises. Looks like they consumed all their extremely favourable $30 hedges they put on in January 2016 and back to using fuel at the current fairly stable but quite low price. Business as usual. Jokestar having a minimal impact in my opinion.

[winner69]

PaperTiger - revenue growth is? Month and YTD please

Seems to be your task to tell us each month .....most of us are just lazy

Looks pretty good to me those stats

Profit upgrade at 1/2 year i reckon - maybe even to $700m (plus)

[Snow Leopard]

Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%

Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%

Year on Year October Month Revenue Comparison (Estimate)
Short: 101.06%
Long: 94.30%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/migration-hits-another-record-high-october-b-197010

Coming in record numbers to visit and stay.

P.S. November 2016 edition of AIR's monthly inflight magazine is showing on the second to last page under fleet stat's they now have 9 dreamliners, confirming my recollection the other day so they're all set to operate all these lovely new fuel efficient aircraft over the busy summer season.

[RTFQ]

Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%

Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%

Year on Year October Month Revenue Comparison (Estimate)
Short: 101.06%
Long: 94.30%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I think the market has been factoring in a 10-20% drop in revenue so these figures are not that bad. I heard a whisper that forward bookings were up 5% on last year for the summer months obviously yield will be down. Historically AIR share price has always climbed NOV thru MAR and I see the same occurring again.

[boysy]

Surely its worth noting the trend with long haul travel people usually book well in advance so the effect of the new players entering the market has not yet been fully felt (this can help explain why long haul load factors continue to decrease month to month).

Question to the floor what load factor does AIR need to make on each of the main long haul routes to break even ?

[777]

Surely its worth noting the trend with long haul travel people usually book well in advance so the effect of the new players entering the market has not yet been fully felt (this can help explain why long haul load factors continue to decrease month to month).

Question to the floor what load factor does AIR need to make on each of the main long haul routes to break even ?


Yield per seat is a of bigger importance than load factor.

[RTFQ]

Surely its worth noting the trend with long haul travel people usually book well in advance so the effect of the new players entering the market has not yet been fully felt (this can help explain why long haul load factors continue to decrease month to month).

Question to the floor what load factor does AIR need to make on each of the main long haul routes to break even ?

It depends on the yield of each seat sold. For twenty odd years AIR operated to the UK with high load factors but never made a profit on this route, until CL marketed it as a single trip LAX - LHR and LHR - LAX. Previously it was marketed as a return trip. AIR can break even on low load factors where they have a monopoly on the route. They equally can have full aircraft and run at a loss.

[couta1]

Yield per seat is a of bigger importance than load factor. That's why I'm not too worried about the decrease in long haul load factors, as long as Air maintain their domestic stronghold it doesn't matter who brings in the extra punters, Air will despatch them around the country.

[Beagle]

That's why I'm not too worried about the decrease in long haul load factors, as long as Air maintain their domestic stronghold it doesn't matter who brings in the extra punters, Air will despatch them around the country.

Yeah, try getting a cheap fare to Queenstown this summer :eek2:

[Beagle]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-dave-the-goose-calls-on-australians-to-join-the-flock-2016100617

Well I feel like a bit of a goose cashing out because of "Trumped up" fears but I'm pleased to be back on board and see I'm in good company with another attractive goose called Dave, although this particular goose is definitly a Kiwi :) Long run I am satisfied they can maintain a 20 cps divvy.

[Raz]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-dave-the-goose-calls-on-australians-to-join-the-flock-2016100617

Well I feel like a bit of a goose cashing out because of "Trumped up" fears but I'm pleased to be back on board and see I'm in good company with another attractive goose called Dave, although this particular goose is definitly a Kiwi :) Long run I am satisfied they can maintain a 20 cps divvy.

Good for you Rodger, awareness is half the battle!

[workingdad]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-dave-the-goose-calls-on-australians-to-join-the-flock-2016100617

Well I feel like a bit of a goose cashing out because of "Trumped up" fears but I'm pleased to be back on board and see I'm in good company with another attractive goose called Dave, although this particular goose is definitly a Kiwi :) Long run I am satisfied they can maintain a 20 cps divvy.

I had anticipated considerably more weakness and never bought back in - still happy with the modest holding I have.

Both flights between Auckland and Brisbane in the last couple of weeks were bursting, the return had code sharing with 5 airlines looking at the flight details and staff were as impressive as always.

[couta1]

Welcome back Roger again, fasten your seat belt and stay in your seat this time. PS-Still cheap buying atm IMO.

[ratkin]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-dave-the-goose-calls-on-australians-to-join-the-flock-2016100617

Well I feel like a bit of a goose cashing out because of "Trumped up" fears but I'm pleased to be back on board and see I'm in good company with another attractive goose called Dave, although this particular goose is definitly a Kiwi :) Long run I am satisfied they can maintain a 20 cps divvy.

Im on board too for the first time in years. Hopefully not too much turbulance.

[iceman]

Yeah, try getting a cheap fare to Queenstown this summer :eek2:

I hear they got some cheap seats at the back mate :p

[couta1]

I hope holders have had a good read of the latest databook Air just put out, will give you confidence in this well managed, profitable company going forward. Of note is the graph showing projected Capex expenditure over the next few years, look at how low it's projected for 2020-2021, looks like I'm going to have to buy a bigger divvy feeding bowl before then. PS-Almost forgot to mention Air's 5 year total shareholder returns up 183% compared to the NZX50, up 100% and the Bloomberg World Airline Index up a lousy 23%, Buffett needs to do a bit more research about which Airlines he invests in aye.

[Beagle]

I hope holders have had a good read of the latest databook Air just put out, will give you confidence in this well managed, profitable company going forward. Of note is the graph showing projected Capex expenditure over the next few years, look at how low it's projected for 2020-2021, looks like I'm going to have to buy a bigger divvy feeding bowl before then. PS-Almost forgot to mention Air's 5 year total shareholder returns up 183% compared to the NZX50, up 100% and the Bloomberg World Airline Index up a lousy 23%, Buffett needs to do a bit more research about which Airlines he invests in aye.

Great post...must hurry off... the pet store have a special for XXXL dogs looking for bigger food bowl's :D Must admit I haven't read it yet, trying to take a more relaxed approach these days, plenty of time to read when you're on board for the long haul.
Iceman you cheeky bugger, I'm telling Mrs hound on you :)

[skid]

I hope holders have had a good read of the latest databook Air just put out, will give you confidence in this well managed, profitable company going forward. Of note is the graph showing projected Capex expenditure over the next few years, look at how low it's projected for 2020-2021, looks like I'm going to have to buy a bigger divvy feeding bowl before then. PS-Almost forgot to mention Air's 5 year total shareholder returns up 183% compared to the NZX50, up 100% and the Bloomberg World Airline Index up a lousy 23%, Buffett needs to do a bit more research about which Airlines he invests in aye.

Coutts advising Buffett now...:scared::):)

[Raz]

Coutts advising Buffett now...:scared::):)

Given Mr Buffett has recently been investing in NZ you would think he would have looked at AIR :-)

[Beagle]

Come on guys, lighten up its Friday. I'm sure the facts are well laid out in the fact book. Maybe when Buffet's analysts read it...

[couta1]

Come on guys, lighten up its Friday. I'm sure the facts are well laid out in the fact book. Maybe when Buffet's analysts read it... Speaking of analysts mate, one of our six amigos has just moved from a hold to a buy recommendation, let's see if any others follow over the coming months.

[skid]

Come on guys, lighten up its Friday. I'm sure the facts are well laid out in the fact book. Maybe when Buffet's analysts read it...

Just a bit of light hearted ribbing....I dint mean nothin by it-Izz only Funnin :):)

Still thin dat Trump honeymoon aint gonna lass dat long