AIR - Air NZ.

[ratkin]

If you have to ask the price, you cant afford it :-) there's so much more holiday I could have on that extra $20k, or even add $10k more AIR shares at the cost of 48 hours of pain.

Logic goes out the window when it comes to air tickets.
Ask 99.9% of people if they would spend ten hours sitting in a slightly uncomfortable chair in return for 1000 dollars and they would consider it easy money.
Then when it comes to air tickets those same people are prepared to pay 1000 dollars extra just for a slightly more comfortable seat. It makes little sense

[Beagle]

I am not casting doubt on anything.
I provided some solid numbers derived from AIR supplied data.
I was asked a question about same and I answered it and also provided what is a more likely scenario, which is inline with your dreams.

But I get accused of casting doubt.

I demand that you return my Christmas Card promptly.


BTW I have flown in first class, on AIR on a 747. It was a free upgrade from business.
The seat pitch was so great that you had to call the hostess to get and put stuff in your seat pocket for you.

Best Wishes & Happy Holidays If You Are Into That Sort Of Thing
Paper Tiger

Soorry mate, not looking to rock the boat (sleigh ?) especially at this time of year. Another carton of that new Tip Top Tiger icecream on its way to you now :)

Robomo - LOL mate too funny. Coutts a great guy and a good mate but asking him to pay for my suite in the sky to Europe might be a little bit of a stretch :)

[Raz]

Go on - your AIR divies will pay for it

The fares are eye watering an't they. I travel with the firm i happen to be involved with to Europe from NZ every six weeks. From CHCH that is 48 flights per year. (8 trips, 3 flights each way) The companies preferred supplier is Emirates, they get a good group discount. They pay business class..like the bar and interesting people you do meet however very few of those people are picking up the tab for the flights..its usually on someone else, who they represent/working for.

They upgrade me as a frequent flyer around 1 flight in 3 to first. In first a few frequent flyers however usually it is a different type of passenger..certainly less social and most i have talked to appear to be more that true ruling elite. Often political privilege or ownership class in their country yet not wealthy or influential enough to have their own private jet....different type of customer..still who is picking up the tab...

First is insane..you can in essence...preselect every ingredient that you eat...very OTT.

[BeeBop]

I happily went to the bottom/back of the aircraft when I began paying myself! In reality, if in a new aircraft my comfort level is adequate and my pocket much much happier....

[Beagle]

Logic goes out the window when it comes to air tickets.
Ask 99.9% of people if they would spend ten hours sitting in a slightly uncomfortable chair in return for 1000 dollars and they would consider it easy money.
Then when it comes to air tickets those same people are prepared to pay 1000 dollars extra just for a slightly more comfortable seat. It makes little sense

Thanks for the feedback above Raz.

This point ratkin makes for something of an interesting debate. I think in the example you've given the vast majority of people would choose a decent airline's economy seat to in effect save $100 per hour.
That said lets look at a different example. Suppose you're flying to Zurich in their peak summer season, July next year. Flight time return is about 50 hours and an economy seat on a decent airline will set you back about $2,300, (got that off Emirates website yesterday). You get a pretty good experience, a reasonable 18 inch width seat with 32-34 inch pitch and in flight entertainment and food seems satisfactory by most accounts reported on www.seatguru.com and its a thoroughly modern plane.

Now suppose you larger than an average person and the extra space of a business class seat including full recline to a flat bed would be very, very nice. Might even get some decent sleep. Suppose you shopped around and found a $5,700 business class service return on a leading airline.... that's another $3,400 over and above an economy ticket for 50 hours of genuine comfort, better food and importantly the genuine prospect of a reasonable sleep, all for $68 per hour. You theoretically, (after a good sleep on your full lie flat seat), arrive in far better shape ready to enjoy Switzerland on your first day, so that has to be worth something meaningful right ?

I used to think people who paid for their own business class ticket had more money than sense but these days I reckon at the right price there's a reasonable argument to be made for it especially if its the trip of a lifetime. Even bean counters get sick of counting beans from time to time, sometimes you have to let your hair down and make a luxury purchase surely ? AIR wants over $10K business class to Zurich, I think that's far too much of a premium over economy but $5,700 on another pretty good airline, maybe not too bad ?
Emirates are $7400 but interestingly their business class seats are only 18.5 inches wide, (18 for economy so hardly any difference) on their A380's (Singapore airways economy seat is 19 inches wide !).

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for the feedback above Raz.
...
Emirates are $7400 but interestingly their business class seats are only 18.5 inches wide, (18 for economy so hardly any difference) on their A380's (Singapore airways economy seat is 19 inches wide !).

For what it is worth - I never used to measure the width of Emirates seats, but did fly with them both economy as well as business class (as well as with a range of other airlines). While Emirates economy seats are pretty good (I'd say if you get the new airbus, best in class - better than the premium economy seats in some of the older AIR NZ planes ...), its business class seats are still by miles better. Lots of space in front of you (and I mean lots) - and for the night the seat can be turned into a bed (totally flat). Some of the most comfortable long haul flights I remember ...

Anyway - enjoy your trip to the UK - are you planning to go to Europe as well?

[Raz]

Thanks for the feedback above Raz.

This point ratkin makes for something of an interesting debate. I think in the example you've given the vast majority of people would choose a decent airline's economy seat to in effect save $100 per hour.
That said lets look at a different example. Suppose you're flying to Zurich in their peak summer season, July next year. Flight time return is about 50 hours and an economy seat on a decent airline will set you back about $2,300, (got that off Emirates website yesterday). You get a pretty good experience, a reasonable 18 inch width seat with 32-34 inch pitch and in flight entertainment and food seems satisfactory by most accounts reported on www.seatguru.com and its a thoroughly modern plane.

Now suppose you larger than an average person and the extra space of a business class seat including full recline to a flat bed would be very, very nice. Might even get some decent sleep. Suppose you shopped around and found a $5,700 business class service return on a leading airline.... that's another $3,400 over and above an economy ticket for 50 hours of genuine comfort, better food and importantly the genuine prospect of a reasonable sleep, all for $68 per hour. You theoretically, (after a good sleep on your full lie flat seat), arrive in far better shape ready to enjoy Switzerland on your first day, so that has to be worth something meaningful right ?

I used to think people who paid for their own business class ticket had more money than sense but these days I reckon at the right price there's a reasonable argument to be made for it especially if its the trip of a lifetime. Even bean counters get sick of counting beans from time to time, sometimes you have to let your hair down and make a luxury purchase surely ? AIR wants over $10K business class to Zurich, I think that's far too much of a premium over economy but $5,700 on another pretty good airline, maybe not too bad ?
Emirates are $7400 but interestingly their business class seats are only 18.5 inches wide, (18 for economy so hardly any difference) on their A380's (Singapore airways economy seat is 19 inches wide !).


Funny enough, when it is our money we value it differently:-) Last family reunion 3 years ago in Europe I went via economy with Emirates..(A380) it was impressive for economy class although I still found it difficult to sleep. They upgraded me to business on the last sector home and I crashed...slept right through.

Next year there is another reunion and it again does not coincide with a business trip.

I will look at economy with a decent stopover or alternatively business class with anyone who is reasonable. You have to look at the overall cost of your trip, which often the airfare is only a small part of the whole cost and look at the cost of each quality/effective hour at your destination. You pay a great deal for you whole trip so you want to maximise your quality time. The cost of not actually travelling well and hitting the ground running could be as much as two effective days more on your schedule. You will still suffer jet lag/time zone changes regardless, so you have enough already to contend with without being overtired and even ill. Also effective time to get on top of things when you return. These long trips are hell if you are not maintaining a basic comfort/health on them.

Naturally I placing aside the affordability question..I know a lot simply could not go if they paid anything other than economy.

[Raz]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11588156

Happy where we are heading with AIR to 2017 year end however if this continues into 2018 not so certain given Government policy..infrastructure may be a road block to their plans thou.

[Beagle]

For what it is worth - I never used to measure the width of Emirates seats, but did fly with them both economy as well as business class (as well as with a range of other airlines). While Emirates economy seats are pretty good (I'd say if you get the new airbus, best in class - better than the premium economy seats in some of the older AIR NZ planes ...), its business class seats are still by miles better. Lots of space in front of you (and I mean lots) - and for the night the seat can be turned into a bed (totally flat). Some of the most comfortable long haul flights I remember ...

Anyway - enjoy your trip to the UK - are you planning to go to Europe as well?

Just in the "dreaming" process at this stage BP.

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-air-nz-splits-tokyo-cathay-offers-shenzhen-ferry-check-and-more-ng-p-198197

[clarky]

Recent AirNZ experience

Recently flew from London to Vancouver and Hong Kong to London with BA. The food was pretty much unedible, with the bun being as hard as a cricket ball and the rest of the meal looking very close to its best before date. The service wasn't much better with no real customer service or smiles from the cabin crew, they looked totally disinterested.

On the other hand my legs from Vancouver to Auckland and Auckland to Hong Kong with AirNZ were superb, better planes with better inflight entertainment, the food was great for airline food, and of course AirNZ cabin crew are always helpful. It's become noticable these days that the gap between the top airlines and the rest is widening and speaking with friends and colleagues they are willing to pay more to fly with the likes of AirNZ.

Also to top things off, I had a family emergency and needed to change my return London flights hours before taking off, jumped on the phone to AirNZ and was speaking to customer service within minutes who were sympathetic and were able to change my flight with no worries at all. I remember years ago at midnight getting an email from Jetstar saying my 6am flight was cancelled. This took hours to get sorted out through their crap customer service. You have to praise AirNZ and the extra mile they go to keep their customers happy.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Some speed wobbles in the wider aviation industry;

http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2016/12/28/delta-cancels-787-order-airbus-cuts-a380-production/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

Good to see some rationalizations in the supply chain. Air travel is undoubtedly getting cheaper and cheaper in real terms and according to IATA they're expecting around 5-6% ongoing annual growth in air travel going forward. As a safe and clean and green country AIR N.Z. are very well positioned to get their fair share on ongoing growth in the aviation industry. Modern fuel efficient fleet, sound balance sheet e.t.c.e.t.c

[winner69]

Afew more seats for AIR

Mind you AIR don't serve WLG/MEL that well - must be a dunger of a route

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88033512/jetstar-stoping-wellingtonmelbourne-direct-flights

[Beagle]

Thanks for the info Winner.

Scorecard for 2016. I had AIR in my ledger at $2.90 in December 2015 and closed today at $2.195. Adding back 45 cents in fully imputed dividends received this year gets me to $2.645 in value so on a gross annual basis down 8.8%, (ignoring the fact I tweaked my holding during the year from time to time), for the year against the NZX50 gross index according to NBR finishing the year up 9%, so relative underperformance of 17.8% for the year and plenty of time to lick my wounds over the holidays and ponder the future for 2017.

The hound learned a very valuable lesson this year. I'm too old to dog paddle against the tide. Much easier swimming with the tide. When TA says get out, you GET OUT and ignore how good the FA seems even if its screaming at you to buy more ! KW even sent me a personal e.mail warning me when it was $2.80 going down. Wish I'd listened to her advice. Never mind...the hound can put her valuable investment principle's into practice in the future. Pain from losses is a great teacher and sometimes good for the soul to take a large dose of humility pills which is what I also got with this one this year so a more circumspect hound goes into 2017 with greater respect for TA discipline !

Disc:- Hold, AIR in a recovering uptrend in my opinion.

Happy new year and best wishes to all for a prosperous and sucessful 2017.

[winner69]

That 219.5 close is great end to year

Wasn't it 170 odd not that long ago?

[Beagle]

Yes mate its established a nice trending recovery from a low of $1.715 in mid October.

[Bobdn]

Yay, let's hope so. I bought a lot (by my humble standards) at 2.19 before it went xd. If it goes to 2.19 I'm literally (not figuratively) going to wet my pants.

It was a quite a mess to clean up, I can tell you.

[thestg]

My Scorecard so far

It is 14 months since borrowing on my mortgage to buy AIR. I borrowed extra to average down as the price dropped & in the end ignored stop losses.


I ended up with a capital loss of $12,092.81, Dividends of $19,758.59 giving me a return on my investment of $7,665.98


My interest payments were $5,725.68 leaving me with a profit of $812.70. This is enough to pay the next 2 months interest.


I still got $6,300.00 to claim at tax time from Imputation credits & dividends (approx. $3500) for March to come yet, so I guess the last 14 months stress has been worth it.

There were plenty of times I should have cashed in, but didn't and I guess I'm very lucky to still have a positive balance.

[percy]

Well the new year should bring cheer to you long suffering AIR shareholders,as the share price $2.195, has now gone up through both the 100 day EMA $2.08, and the 200 day EMA $2.19.
Enjoy your flight.

[Beagle]

Well the new year should bring cheer to you long suffering AIR shareholders,as the share price $2.195, has now gone up through both the 100 day EMA $2.08, and the 200 day EMA $2.19.
Enjoy your flight.

FL320 again would be nice :)

[see weed]

Back to +$2 by years end with that announcement. Been topping up on close everyday for last week;).
From 12/10/16. Bought another 22,000 on 13/10/16, some were at 1.715 during the day. Will let you know the profit/loss made on this stock in the next couple days over the break. Now back to the beach Happy new year:cool:.

[Beagle]

From 12/10/16. Bought another 22,000 on 13/10/16, some were at 1.715 during the day. Will let you know the profit/loss made on this stock in the next couple days over the break. Now back to the beach Happy new year:cool:.

Well done mate, you're as cunning as a hungry beagle dog.

[percy]

FL320 again would be nice :)

Be a lot of very happy holders.!!!

[winner69]

FL320 again would be nice :)


Heading that way eh

This uptrend has real legs - 171 to 220 is good - but only the start of a climb to 250 and then 300.

Not even euphoric yet





but wouldn't take much to drop to 150 as per that long cyclical chart that keeps popping up

[Raz]

Heading that way eh

This uptrend has real legs - 171 to 220 is good - but only the start of a climb to 250 and then 300.

Not even euphoric yet





but wouldn't take much to drop to 150 as per that long cyclical chart that keeps popping up

ha depends on your position, I was euphoric to book a a similar gain on 100k share that I sold pre xmas. Nice to see Winner on the fence.. many would kill looking at the results on this forum here to make a legitimate 50 cents true gain :-) Still have 200k shares not on the fence :-)

[Beagle]

Heading that way eh...

This uptrend has real legs - 171 to 220 is good - but only the start of a climb to 250 and then 300.

Not even euphoric yet...


http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ Average analyst forecast for FY18, (when the full effects of all competition will be felt) is 29.3 cps and the ten year average PE for AIR is 11. 29.3 x 11 =.... yeap you guessed it ~ FL320 :)

[winner69]

Enter this - you just might win (at myexpense)

https://www.iflya380.com/contest

[RupertBear]

Thanks for the info Winner.

Scorecard for 2016. I had AIR in my ledger at $2.90 in December 2015 and closed today at $2.195. Adding back 45 cents in fully imputed dividends received this year gets me to $2.645 in value so on a gross annual basis down 8.8%, (ignoring the fact I tweaked my holding during the year from time to time), for the year against the NZX50 gross index according to NBR finishing the year up 9%, so relative underperformance of 17.8% for the year and plenty of time to lick my wounds over the holidays and ponder the future for 2017.

The hound learned a very valuable lesson this year. I'm too old to dog paddle against the tide. Much easier swimming with the tide. When TA says get out, you GET OUT and ignore how good the FA seems even if its screaming at you to buy more ! KW even sent me a personal e.mail warning me when it was $2.80 going down. Wish I'd listened to her advice. Never mind...the hound can put her valuable investment principle's into practice in the future. Pain from losses is a great teacher and sometimes good for the soul to take a large dose of humility pills which is what I also got with this one this year so a more circumspect hound goes into 2017 with greater respect for TA discipline !

Disc:- Hold, AIR in a recovering uptrend in my opinion.

Happy new year and best wishes to all for a prosperous and sucessful 2017.

Hey Roger Happy New Year!

I have done ok with my Air NZ shares so far in part thanks to following your postings thank you. i am interested to hear you are a TA advocate. I am keen to learn more about TA as I think it would have helped me get out of the likes of Wynyard sooner instead of watching the sinking ship go down and hoping it would re float ;). So I have just downloaded some TA books from Amazon for my New Years reading :D

[stoploss]

Enter this - you just might win (at myexpense)

https://www.iflya380.com/contest

Qantas seem to be having problems with one of their 380's in Dubai , a lot of unhappy people missing New Year in Sydney .

[winner69]

Qantas seem to be having problems with one of their 380's in Dubai , a lot of unhappy people missing New Year in Sydney .

I would be more than displeased if I was on the 2nd plane and got kicked off so the first lot of disgruntled punters wouldn't have a 2 day plus stopover

http://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-passengers-bound-for-sydney-stranded-in-dubai-on-new-years-eve-20161231-gtk7b5.html

[Beagle]

Hey Roger Happy New Year!

I have done ok with my Air NZ shares so far in part thanks to following your postings thank you. i am interested to hear you are a TA advocate. I am keen to learn more about TA as I think it would have helped me get out of the likes of Wynyard sooner instead of watching the sinking ship go down and hoping it would re float ;). So I have just downloaded some TA books from Amazon for my New Years reading :D

Happy new year Rupertbear and all the best for 2017 to you and everyone else.

[janner]

Another good year for investing :-))

8574)

[Jantar]

Looks like another of AIR's competitors is getting bad publicity as well.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/88063840/luggage-dumping-victims-angry-at-jetstar-only-when-i-got-angry-on-facebook-did-i-get-a-proper-update

[winner69]

Not a good look for the Qantas boss

I'm sure our Chris would have stayed until the very last stranded passenger was on their way home - yes

http://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-passengers-bound-for-sydney-stranded-in-dubai-on-new-years-eve-20161231-gtk7b5.html

[Raz]

Not a good look for the Qantas boss

I'm sure our Chris would have stayed until the very last stranded passenger was on their way home - yes

http://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-passengers-bound-for-sydney-stranded-in-dubai-on-new-years-eve-20161231-gtk7b5.html

Regardless the kind of information that means I would never fly with them again.

[BlackPeter]

I would be more than displeased if I was on the 2nd plane and got kicked off so the first lot of disgruntled punters wouldn't have a 2 day plus stopover

http://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-passengers-bound-for-sydney-stranded-in-dubai-on-new-years-eve-20161231-gtk7b5.html

But good to hear that they found a quick solution to bring the Qantas CEO (who happened to be on the first plane) home for New Years eve:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88064263/Qantas-boss-flies-out-as-passengers-bound-for-Sydney-stranded-in-Dubai-on-New-Years-Eve

Their clearly know how to treat important passengers and have their priorities right. I am sure the wait for the other passengers in Dubai is just so much more pleasant when knowing that the really important people got their flight home in time:D.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for the info Winner.

Scorecard for 2016. I had AIR in my ledger at $2.90 in December 2015 and closed today at $2.195. Adding back 45 cents in fully imputed dividends received this year gets me to $2.645 in value so on a gross annual basis down 8.8%, (ignoring the fact I tweaked my holding during the year from time to time), for the year against the NZX50 gross index according to NBR finishing the year up 9%, so relative underperformance of 17.8% for the year and plenty of time to lick my wounds over the holidays and ponder the future for 2017.

The hound learned a very valuable lesson this year. I'm too old to dog paddle against the tide. Much easier swimming with the tide. When TA says get out, you GET OUT and ignore how good the FA seems even if its screaming at you to buy more ! KW even sent me a personal e.mail warning me when it was $2.80 going down. Wish I'd listened to her advice. Never mind...the hound can put her valuable investment principle's into practice in the future. Pain from losses is a great teacher and sometimes good for the soul to take a large dose of humility pills which is what I also got with this one this year so a more circumspect hound goes into 2017 with greater respect for TA discipline !

Disc:- Hold, AIR in a recovering uptrend in my opinion.

Happy new year and best wishes to all for a prosperous and successful 2017.

Hi Roger,

Good on you for reviewing your investment decisions and to use the outcome for some learning. That's the best way to capitalize on mishaps. I am currently in the same process (and can report that I made a bit of money this year with AIR ;), that's more than I can say about some other investments). Very useful process, and I might expand on that in the next couple of days (when I am finished ... today is more for the beach ...).

Hope your assessment where AIR is going is right - I still think it can go either way from here.

Anyway - happy and prosperous New Year to you and anybody else on sharetrader. Looking forward to plenty of educational discussions in 2017.

[Xerof]

But good to hear that they found a quick solution to bring the Qantas CEO (who happened to be on the first plane) home for New Years eve:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88064263/Qantas-boss-flies-out-as-passengers-bound-for-Sydney-stranded-in-Dubai-on-New-Years-Eve

Their clearly know how to treat important passengers and have their priorities right. I am sure the wait for the other passengers in Dubai is just so much more pleasant when knowing that the really important people got their flight home in time:D.

I hear you, but the reality is there is a priority order. EG, on AIR, if a flight is cancelled, the ground staff immediately allocate Gold Elites to the next flight (s) with seating available, followed by Gold, Silver, etc, before you even get to the counter. If you don't have a loyalty card, you are custard. This applies to most, if not all airlines.

I was on a cancelled flight out of Invercargill (and was GE at the time) and was flying with 2 colleagues who were 'custard class' This was my first ever cancelled flight whilst being GE, and I was not expecting to be treated any differently, so we all joined the queue to rebook. I was surprised to find I was already booked on next available, whilst my colleagues were 4 hours later.

As an aside, one of them had a young family to get home to, for me it didn't matter if I was late, so I offered to swap flights. The ground staff looked at me twice, but were happy to follow orders. In appreciation my colleague bought me a Powerball random dip, which struck first division and 26million powerball.:eek2:






Nah, didn't:p...... happy 2017 investing everyone:t_up:

[Marilyn Munroe]

I'll tell you another dirty little secret about cancelled flights.

Often the putting up stranded passengers in hotels and transport to and from are the responisibility of the ground handling contractor who is often bulk funded for this.

If the cancellations and accomdation costs during the contract period are below projections the contractor gets to trouser the funds. On the other hand if costs exceed projections the extra cost comes out of the contractors wallet. So if you are grounded due to a cancellation you are often at the mercy of a contractor motivated to minimise costs.

In one instance I was involved with a flight was cancelled and we were booked on an alternative flight at a nearby airport late at night. Unfortunately we were held up getting to this airport. Because the airline had a different ground handling contractor at each airport and there was no co-ordination between them they failed to hold the flight so we were stuck in a hotel overnight when a 15 or 20 minute delay to the plane could have got everone on board and happily on their way.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Poor optics for the CEO of Queer and Nasty Airlines to be winging his way home while fellow passengers were still stranded. All customers are equal but not as worthy as their executives.

[Raz]

[QUOTE=Xerof;649989]I hear you, but the reality is there is a priority order. EG, on AIR, if a flight is cancelled, the ground staff immediately allocate Gold Elites to the next flight (s) with seating available, followed by Gold, Silver, etc, before you even get to the counter. If you don't have a loyalty card, you are custard. This applies to most, if not all airlines.

I was on a cancelled flight out of Invercargill (and was GE at the time) and was flying with 2 colleagues who were 'custard class' This was my first ever cancelled flight whilst being GE, and I was not expecting to be treated any differently, so we all joined the queue to rebook. I was surprised to find I was already booked on next available, whilst my colleagues were 4 hours later.

As an aside, one of them had a young family to get home to, for me it didn't matter if I was late, so I offered to swap flights. The ground staff looked at me twice, but were happy to follow orders. In appreciation my colleague bought me a Powerball random dip, which struck first division and 26million powerball.:eek2:

That is true and experienced that however that is different than kicking people off the next flight to make room...never seen that happen.....

[Beagle]

I was in the neighborhood so stopped by the airport viewing area yesterday evening and was treated to the rare sight of an AIR Dreamliner landing while another was first in the queue on hold ready for takeoff. I must admit it gave me a quiet sense of satisfaction to see these two new modern and highly efficient aircraft working hard for us shareholders during our holiday's.
With nine of these highly efficient birds now online and no major heavy maintenance due on them for the first nine years I watched the second one take off into the sunset and thought to myself...I wonder if people are underestimating the degree of new efficiencies these bring to AIR ?

What airlines actually pay for aircraft is usually a closely guarded commercial secret but its no secret that nobody pays list price.

The list price is now apparently over U.S.$250m for the 787-9 and Chris Luxon did let it slip at the 2015 annual meeting that they cost AIR only $150m to AIR after receiving a very special launch discount.
I had thought previously he'd meant $U.S.150m (although U.S. currency certainly wasn't mentioned when he talked of the $150m purchase cost) but maybe he meant $150m $Kiwi ?

If so that would represent an extraordinarily good deal for the 787-9 version and perhaps even better than larger airlines, see this link, an oldie but a very good one for considering what sort of bargain we really got considering what they are rumored to cost to produce ! http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/05/21/boeing-bleeding-cash-as-787-dreamliners-cost-200m-but-sell-for-116m-but-productivity-is-improving/#44de1e80450c

I think this Dreamliner acquisition which had its roots about a decade ago, (9 on hand now, 3 more firm orders over the next 3 years and 6 more options) sets AIR up very nicely for operational efficiency for the next 15-20 years. New ATR600's are a real accountants aircraft too, extremely cheap to run.

Anyway it seems money still talks, (no surprises there and that will never change) and lots of money still talks loudly no matter who's doing the talking, see discounts Iran AIR say they're getting on their $10 billion dollar deal. https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-more-kiosks-auckland-a380-orders-delayed-and-iran%E2%80%99s-big-discounts-ng-198318

If you're bored in the holidays and want to know about the interesting way Boeing accounts for the costs on these aircraft among many other things, this is an interesting read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner

[winner69]

Hey Roger - looks like you'll have to fly Jetstar to Queenstown next trip - no room on the ground for your private jet

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88037464/Parking-squeeze-at-Queenstown-airport-sees-some-private-jets-turned-away

[Beagle]

Hey Roger - looks like you'll have to fly Jetstar to Queenstown next trip - no room on the ground for your private jet

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88037464/Parking-squeeze-at-Queenstown-airport-sees-some-private-jets-turned-away

LOL mate. Tough at the top when there's no space to park one's Gulfstream 650 isn't it !
My one's ready next month and I can't even take it to Queenstown :D http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=gulfstream+650+takeoff+geneva&&view=detail&mid=20280D35E01F17FE2B0320280D35E01F17FE2B03&rvsmid=20280D35E01F17FE2B0320280D35E01F17FE2B03&fsscr=0&FORM=VDMCNL

[winner69]

AIZ going well on ASX today

Bodes well for 220 plus tomorrow

This is going to be a great year

No worries

[Bobdn]

I forgot Air was dual listed! Will check it out.

[winner69]

Looking at yahoo charts and comparing AIZ and QAN
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AIZ.AX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=QAN.AX

QAN share price has outperformed AIZ over 1, 6, 12 and 24 month periods

Hmm - might need to swap if I want to have an airline stock longer term. QAN has the advantage of being bigger and listing on a bigger home exchange

Bea bugger if NZDAUD reached parity though

[Joshuatree]

LOL mate. Tough at the top when there's no space to park one's Gulfstream 650 isn't it !
My one's ready next month and I can't even take it to Queenstown :D http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=gulfstream+650+takeoff+geneva&&view=detail&mid=20280D35E01F17FE2B0320280D35E01F17FE2B03&rvsmid=20280D35E01F17FE2B0320280D35E01F17FE2B03&fsscr=0&FORM=VDMCNL

Think of your carbon footprint Roger; something more down to earth perhaps

A tiny house with wings for walls - Westphoria - Sunset (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0ahUKEwie7-XMkaXRAhVLF5QKHWgqD0QQFggsMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwestphoria.sunset.com%2F2015%2F07 %2F09%2Fa-tiny-house-with-wings-for-walls%2F&usg=AFQjCNGEIdCBtu97X_u_674G2Dp_CPnGaQ&sig2=9B3WlA7o8yvxJhddAnUBSA)

[macduffy]

Looking at yahoo charts and comparing AIZ and QAN
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AIZ.AX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=QAN.AX

QAN share price has outperformed AIZ over 1, 6, 12 and 24 month periods

Hmm - might need to swap if I want to have an airline stock longer term. QAN has the advantage of being bigger and listing on a bigger home exchange

Bea bugger if NZDAUD reached parity though

Think about it, winner.

Do you really want an airline stock longer term?

;)

[tim23]

Well circa 9% net dividend for foreseeable future does look compelling

[Joshuatree]

There is one and it is >here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7284-QAN-Qantas-Airways)< but strangely if you search for 'qantas' it never appears in the results!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT. I have contacted Admin twice without even a response. Still can't bring QAN or Q/qantas up!.Maybe the IT guy is on hols.Perhaps if others request it fixed too we may get some courtesy/action! !

[couta1]

Think about it, winner.

Do you really want an airline stock longer term?

;) Well yes, yes, and another yes.

[King1212]

Oil dropped 2% today..expecting a good rally on AIR?

[Beagle]

Think of your carbon footprint Roger; something more down to earth perhaps

A tiny house with wings for walls - Westphoria - Sunset (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0ahUKEwie7-XMkaXRAhVLF5QKHWgqD0QQFggsMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwestphoria.sunset.com%2F2015%2F07 %2F09%2Fa-tiny-house-with-wings-for-walls%2F&usg=AFQjCNGEIdCBtu97X_u_674G2Dp_CPnGaQ&sig2=9B3WlA7o8yvxJhddAnUBSA)

Looking good JT. I like the way the earth roof merges into the hillside, kind of a little slice of a hobbit style home thing going on there. Maybe if a farmer had a spare acre of land by a river I reckon a few of these, (slightly larger ones for couples and families) overlooking a nice river would really fly on AIrbnb :)


Well yes, yes, and another yes.

Love your enthusiasm and commitment mate.

[Beagle]

Well circa 9% net dividend for foreseeable future does look compelling

Hits the nail directly on the head !

On a completely different and far less pleasant subject...clearly some people need to be banned by AIR for life and I suspect she will be http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/nz-plane-hijacker-threatens-repeat-action/ar-BBxRiwv?li=BBv6TfA&ocid=spartandhp

[macduffy]

Well yes, yes, and another yes.

Not falling in love again, are we, couta?

;)

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11776698

[couta1]

Not falling in love again, are we, couta?

;) Not possible as I never fell out of love in the first place.:cool:

[winner69]

Goodness gracious me, AIR at 224

One of the stars of the ASX the last few months - up 30%

Could almost call AIR a market darling

Surely 250 beckons before 1/2 year anouncement

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11777625

[Raz]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11777625

you missed this one:-)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11777260

Customer service going the wrong way or trying to find an airbridge at clogged airports the problem.

[kiwico]

I had the "pleasure" of calling the Air NZ call centre last week as a 11 year old daughter needs to travel as an unaccompanied minor from Tauranga to Wellington next week and her 12 year old sister, although charged by Air NZ as an adult, does not meet the requirement of being old enough for the purposes of accompanying an unaccompanied minor (she would need to be 15).

The person I spoke to had forgotten this age rule (I had to remind her); I had to spell complicated words like 'road' and 'terrace' (which she then spelled back to at the end as r-o-a-d etc); she changed the 07 land line number prefix I gave to an 09 because it was a landline; and generally struggled with the whole process which ended up taking 27 minutes for a very simple transition (the flights were already booked).

I did ask a couple of times if she was based in NZ to which she answered yes. Hopefully some of the sales team are a little better.

[Beagle]

Should have taken her name and given some feedback through investor relations. Good to help weed out the odd rotten apple in every barrel. Possibly an intern on their summer program who's first language isn't English ?

[peat]

UA/AIR JV SF gone

[Marilyn Munroe]

UA/AIR JV SF gone

A cynical person might conclude that once the threat of competition on this route by the proposed joint venture between American Airlines and Queer and Nasty Airlines was nixed by the US Department of Transportation UA has lost interest.

As for the inconvenience for the walk on cargo, who cares about them.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[andrewdixon1000]

Roger - are the investor relations people interested in feedback about poor performance? I had an absolutely terrible experience with the Customer Experience people recently and would love to have a rant to the investor relations people if they'll listen.

[winner69]

Roger - are the investor relations people interested in feedback about poor performance? I had an absolutely terrible experience with the Customer Experience people recently and would love to have a rant to the investor relations people if they'll listen.

Investor Relations guy should listen to disgruntled shareholders -- but it appears as if a Mike Tod is in charge of this part of the business. He is Chief Marketing & Customer Officer

Email mike.tod@airnz.co.nz

From a few travel sites Mike not that good at replying emails by the looks of it ........ but he is pretty good at cashing in his shares.

[Master98]

Forsyth Barr downgrade AIR from neutral to underperform, the reason is "Margin pressure from lower yields and higher fuel prices will dent market profitability expectations from both FY17E and FY18E", they expect current year earnings to be at bottom of management's guidance range.

[winner69]

Forsyth Barr downgrade AIR from neutral to underperform, the reason is "Margin pressure from lower yields and higher fuel prices will dent market profitability expectations from both FY17E and FY18E", they expect current year earnings to be at bottom of management's guidance range.

That's good news (assuming a recent release)

Shareprice might go down a bit next few days as they churn clients portfolio ....but then it will be up up and away like a beautiful Dreamliner .....all the way to 250 .....then 300

[winner69]

Forbar are to investing/trading what Mike Dillion (Herald Racing Editor) is to racing

Punters steer away from their picks - both form guides not that reliable

[Master98]

That's good news (assuming a recent release)

Shareprice might go down a bit next few days as they churn clients portfolio ....but then it will be up up and away like a beautiful Dreamliner .....all the way to 250 .....then 300
yes this is the latest release company report dated on 06/01/17.they said"yet recent share price resilience in the face of likely material consensus downgrades leads us to lower our investment rating to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL".

[stoploss]

some good news ?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11778240

[couta1]

Forbar are to investing/trading what Mike Dillion (Herald Racing Editor) is to racing

Punters steer away from their picks - both form guides not that reliable At Fridays close of $2.25, Air has already hit the analysts concensus high target price, these guys are no better than coin tossers, not sure why some put so much faith in them, probably just the Sheeple factor aye.

[Raz]

At Fridays close of $2.25, Air has already hit the analysts concensus high target price, these guys are no better than coin tossers, not sure why some put so much faith in them, probably just the Sheeple factor aye.

Totally agree however they are still a factor.

[Jay]

Flew there and back (sydney) in the last week on the 787-9 - Plane full barring a few seats - both times flew at 41200 feet - highest I've been - 1st time on a dreamliner as well - fly higher, less fuel burned due to lower atmosphere?? -
Was seated near the back of the plane - but all good, could not complain.
Was quieter than the last time i flew one way was a 777-200 (not a refurbished one) and back the 777-300 refurbished upgraed version
The flight home as was about an hour late leaving due to the aircraft being late into Auckland from Singapore then converseley late into Sydney - don't know why it was late in the first instance

[janner]

don't know why it was late in the first instance

Probably due to connecting flights .. Bad weather.. Did a Frankfurt to Kiev 30/12/16 One hour late waiting for connections..

[Snow Leopard]

Time to knock a few percent off the valuation of AIR and many other airlines.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[dobby41]

Bit less competition for AIR for a while anyway
United Airlines suspends NZ service
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11778240

I had both my flights rebooked on AIR.

[tread]

I guess this is the potential threat?

"The deal was touted to deter American Airlines - from the rival Oneworld alliance and a potential threat to Air New Zealand - from entering the transpacific market."

ps, Hi - new to the site :)


Bit less competition for AIR for a while anyway
United Airlines suspends NZ service
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11778240

I had both my flights rebooked on AIR.

[Beagle]

rmbbrave, you would be a braver person than I to risk your money on Air New Zealand. 20 September 2004 (first page of this thread).


I have said it before and I will say it again [in differt words].

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low. 22 September 2004


Time to knock a few percent off the valuation of AIR and many other airlines.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Today.

You've been at this project of yours for a while now mate. Unless this is part of your paid employment maybe, just maybe, with a new year and all could it be time to consider if there is not some other project more worthy of an intelligent Tiger's creative resources and valuable time ? Not looking to start something mate, just a thought for the new year. Happy new year :)

[couta1]

20 September 2004 (first page of this thread).

22 September 2004

Today.

You've been at this project of yours for a while now mate. Unless this is part of your paid employment maybe, just maybe, with a new year and all could it be time to consider if there is not some other project more worthy of an intelligent Tiger's creative resources and valuable time ? Not looking to start something mate, just a thought for the new year. Happy new year :) I was actually going to give him the task of working out how many cans of jellymeat I will be able to buy with my next XOS divvy, perhaps he could knock a few percent off for bulk purchase.:cool:

[Xerof]

I guess this is the potential threat?

"The deal was touted to deter American Airlines - from the rival Oneworld alliance and a potential threat to Air New Zealand - from entering the transpacific market."

ps, Hi - new to the site :)

"was" rather than "is" the threat - AA and Qantas have withdrawn, followed by UA suspending and handing all their forward bookings to AIR.

If what's 'touted' is true, I think they are a bunch of smart cookies

[brend]

Bit less competition for AIR for a while anyway
United Airlines suspends NZ service
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11778240

I had both my flights rebooked on AIR.

UA was in a partnership agreement with AIR.

IF AA cancel services then thats a different story.

[dobby41]

UA was in a partnership agreement with AIR.

IF AA cancel services then thats a different story.

While that's true there are less seats now so that has to be good - right?

[winner69]

Seems 225 a bit of a hurdle to overcome

C'mon seeweed start buying more and give the share price a boost

Beter to average up than average down.

[brend]

While that's true there are less seats now so that has to be good - right?

Less seats yes so loading will be higher. You have to remember this route was once serviced by the 747 fleet. When the last one exited service this reduced capacity when they changed over to a 773

AIR might need move to a 2xdaily service for some days or put the 773 back on to help manage.

the next step with north america would be using the lower density dreamliners and starting a route to ORD (Chicago). ORD is a big Star Alliance hub and served well by UA.

[Beagle]

Less seats yes so loading will be higher. You have to remember this route was once serviced by the 747 fleet. When the last one exited service this reduced capacity when they changed over to a 773

AIR might need move to a 2xdaily service for some days or put the 773 back on to help manage.

the next step with north america would be using the lower density dreamliners and starting a route to ORD (Chicago). ORD is a big Star Alliance hub and served well by UA.

The next 3 Dreamliners coming which will be configured with 275 seats, (more business and premium economy that earlier versions) apparently have more range so Chicago direct maybe possible.

[Beagle]

Less seats yes so loading will be higher. You have to remember this route was once serviced by the 747 fleet. When the last one exited service this reduced capacity when they changed over to a 773

AIR might need move to a 2xdaily service for some days or put the 773 back on to help manage.

the next step with north america would be using the lower density dreamliners and starting a route to ORD (Chicago). ORD is a big Star Alliance hub and served well by UA.

Forgot to mention, AIR as you know have six more remaining options on Dreamliners after the next 3 committed purchases.

Wonder if they're at the same crazy low $150m each ?

[vici]

What's the feeling on AIR short-medium term?

A couple thoughts:
The current management have done a spectacular job in cost cutting + implementing efficiency initiatives (streamlining the fleet, cutting out older less fuel efficient models) + taking advantage of very favourable industry economics (cheap oil prices, general trend up for travel, etc) over the past few years have seen the business do extraordinarily well during that time.
However it always makes me nervous to see management get so much of their remuneration in options diluting shareholder wealth, especially when they seem to cash them in immediately as they receive them. It does not inspire confidence.
I get the impression that a lot of the cost saving initiatives have bottomed out, oil prices are always unpredictable but unlikely to be as low they were 2016 (but who can tell really), and with the revenue growing at a much lower rate than the bottom line, it will be very difficult for the business to get close to it's 2016 performance.
On the flip-side, it basically has a stranglehold on the domestic market with a dominant market share. Although barriers to entry are low, it has been proven over the years that it is very difficult for 3 airlines to profitably operate. The growth play for them is the international flights, which has plenty of competition, but Air NZ has a good reputation and has steady growth in this space. And of course the dividend is very attractive.
Even so, with a current P/E of ~5-6, seems like the market is being overly cautious of AIR.
People don't forget easily do they? Dangers of airline stocks and vulnerability to oil prices and the threat of competition seem to be the main factors keeping this down. Any other perspectives?

[Snow Leopard]

Forgot to mention, AIR as you know have six more remaining options on Dreamliners after the next 3 committed purchases.

Wonder if they're at the same crazy low $150m each ?

Boeing will currently sell a new 787-9 for about US$150M to anyone.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

I was actually going to give him the task of working out how many cans of jellymeat I will be able to buy with my next XOS divvy, perhaps he could knock a few percent off for bulk purchase.:cool:

http://assets.amuniversal.com/59e80c604c600134aca6005056a9545d
from: http://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2017/01/11

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[King1212]

What's the feeling on AIR short-medium term?

A couple thoughts:
The current management have done a spectacular job in cost cutting + implementing efficiency initiatives (streamlining the fleet, cutting out older less fuel efficient models) + taking advantage of very favourable industry economics (cheap oil prices, general trend up for travel, etc) over the past few years have seen the business do extraordinarily well during that time.
However it always makes me nervous to see management get so much of their remuneration in options diluting shareholder wealth, especially when they seem to cash them in immediately as they receive them. It does not inspire confidence.
I get the impression that a lot of the cost saving initiatives have bottomed out, oil prices are always unpredictable but unlikely to be as low they were 2016 (but who can tell really), and with the revenue growing at a much lower rate than the bottom line, it will be very difficult for the business to get close to it's 2016 performance.
On the flip-side, it basically has a stranglehold on the domestic market with a dominant market share. Although barriers to entry are low, it has been proven over the years that it is very difficult for 3 airlines to profitably operate. The growth play for them is the international flights, which has plenty of competition, but Air NZ has a good reputation and has steady growth in this space. And of course the dividend is very attractive.
Even so, with a current P/E of ~5-6, seems like the market is being overly cautious of AIR.
People don't forget easily do they? Dangers of airline stocks and vulnerability to oil prices and the threat of competition seem to be the main factors keeping this down. Any other perspectives?


Same me with my thoughts..that why I sold mine with tiny profit but good chunk of last dividend...n swap with EVO:t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

Roger.

think you link was for this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/05/21/boeing-bleeding-cash-as-787-dreamliners-cost-200m-but-sell-for-116m-but-productivity-is-improving/#2a388143450c

refers to 787-8's

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Roger.

think you link was for this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/05/21/boeing-bleeding-cash-as-787-dreamliners-cost-200m-but-sell-for-116m-but-productivity-is-improving/#2a388143450c

refers to 787-8's

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeap that's the one, got frustrated the link didn't work for me.
AIR was a launch customer for the 787 as you know and committed to the contract over a decade ago in conjunction with a large order, (for them) of 777's.
They have said they were extremely pleased with the deal they go which involved an unprecedented discount for them. They would have also got significant additional concessions in regard to the delay caused by the battery issue and manufacturing delay's. C.L. let their $150m cost for 787-9's slip in the 2015 annual meeting. Was he talking Kiwi or $U.S., that's the question ? Certainly to the best of my recollection there was no mention of $U.S prefacing that figure mentioned at the time but I accept its normal in aviation circle's to talk numbers in $U.S.

How's the Tiger profit model looking for FY17 looking mate ?

[Snow Leopard]

...How's the Tiger profit model looking for FY17 looking mate ?

I have a feeling of deja-vu here so may be I have posted some of this (perhaps this? (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=649389&viewfull=1#post649389)) before but...

The plausible, but hopefully unlikely, worst case is NPBT of $370M which we really do not want.

I am currently leaning towards a realistic NPBT of $450M and an optimistic $490M.

Whatever 2017 is, expectation is that 2018 will be worse.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[see weed]

Seems 225 a bit of a hurdle to overcome

C'mon seeweed start buying more and give the share price a boost

Beter to average up than average down.
On holiday at moment. Sold some a little while ago, but will be back in about 6 weeks from now.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Brokers average estimates for FY17, 18 & 19.

[couta1]

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Brokers average estimates for FY17, 18 & 19. Don't think these guys really have any idea in terms of target prices, they keep downgrading it, even the fickle market doesn't agree with them. Couta's target price remains unchanged at $2.50

[winner69]

Don't think these guys really have any idea in terms of target prices, they keep downgrading it, even the fickle market doesn't agree with them. Couta's target price remains unchanged at $2.50

Their profit forecasts are pretty bullish - even higher than Tigers

[Beagle]

Any divvy hound worth his salt won't care about minor deviations from the main theme and will note that even based on brokers conservative forecasts AIR have plenty of money to pay their regular 20 cps annual divvies through to FY19 and after that we have a meaty capex holiday so the feeds should get even bigger from there :)

[sb9]

Seems 225 a bit of a hurdle to overcome

C'mon seeweed start buying more and give the share price a boost

Beter to average up than average down.

I'm picking it'll break that 225 barrier today, just a guess :)

[couta1]

I'm picking it'll break that 225 barrier today, just a guess :) Good guess, closed at $2.27. Not sure how 4 traders has a mean target of $2.13 :confused::t_down:

[BlackPeter]

Hi couta, you should know that the 4 traders consensus is a 12 months target, which means that the analysts assume this stock to slightly drop over the next 12 months. Sure - they are not always right (who is?), but these things do happen (stocks dropping). Did this never happen to your investments ;)?

[winner69]

At least AIR gave them their money back .....butwhat a disappointment

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88216904/nz-trip-of-a-lifetime-cancelled-for-us-school-kids-after-airline-booking-error

[Beagle]

At least AIR gave them their money back .....butwhat a disappointment

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88216904/nz-trip-of-a-lifetime-cancelled-for-us-school-kids-after-airline-booking-error

Human error happens from time to time, far more often with some airlines than others, (I am thinking of Jetstar) Full refund and a free rescheduled trip would appear to be the right thing to do in my opinion.

[Raz]

Human error happens from time to time, far more often with some airlines than others, (I am thinking of Jetstar) Full refund and a free rescheduled trip would appear to be the right thing to do in my opinion.

I'm actually surprised it does not happen more..its a very imperfect booking system, outside AIRs control here in the US

[couta1]

Just booked all our flights to Q/Town for our 2 winter excursions this year, it's going to be a cracker of a year for Air on the domestic front this year with all that's going on plus your normal tourism, bring it on.

[winner69]

Stats NZ on the growth in visitor numbers for November said thevstrongest growth in visitor numbers in percentage terms came from Argentina. Tourists from there rose by 223%

good on you AIR - making it easier to visit NZ with those new flights. Good for AIR and good for NZ

[pierre]

Pays to be a bit clever when you're booking with AIR especially when you're in the provinces.

The best price on their website travelling from Napier to Queenstown and return in mid-February was $366 each way! Those flights were via Wellington and/or Christchurch and were the only ones quoted online.

A quick check on the cost of a multi-stop trip flying via Auckland saved me $76 getting there and $156 coming back. Total travel time including stopovers was the same for either of the options. Still very expensive but felt good beating the system!

[Sideshow Bob]

Good tip for anyone in the provinces Pierre!

Queenstown has lots of flights/seats to Auckland but struggle through Welly or Chch. Sometimes pays to go north to go south!

[boysy]

PT what do you make of the latest op stats seems to be more of the same being flying more for less $$$

[couta1]

PT what do you make of the latest op stats seems to be more of the same being flying more for less $$$ Been discussed so old news now, next lot will be along soon, how's the op stats going for Trilogy? not very well I'd say judging by the share price, perhaps rosehips are flying low these days aye.

[boysy]

Or we could talk about air here couta on the correct thread ........

[Snow Leopard]

PT what do you make of the latest op stats seems to be more of the same being flying more for less $$$

Recommend by Paper Tiger :)

https://resizing.flixster.com/ia1DdG6b7UUWxVr942Ht_60xnkQ=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjIxMjc4MDtqOzE3MTk2OzEyMDA7NjQxOzk0OQ https://resizing.flixster.com/wgo4Apr60L8WsUZpIw6B7bSHIw4=/206x305/v1.bTsxMTQyMDkxMTtqOzE3Mjc3OzEyMDA7MzM3NTs1MDAw https://resizing.flixster.com/pv3Q00kAsC3KXe-24xRX79Rg1Ac=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI3MDMwMztwOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7NjkwOzkyMQ

Waiting to watch (Jackie Chan, Matt Damon & Shah Rukh Khan respectively):

https://resizing.flixster.com/xvsUzVpquPLYTTAcYvHc02yc2tg=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI5NTM5MTtqOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7MTQwMDsyMDc0 https://resizing.flixster.com/5q5frAvEvNxDvWhWLIpZpFraZTI=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjE5ODQwMjtqOzE3MTk2OzEyMDA7MTI5OTsxNzMy https://resizing.flixster.com/IJuAs5qX4ZtayMRQAQLOCtSavr0=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI5NDY4MjtqOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7Njk0OzkyNQ


Due to a conflict of interest I am currently unable to comment on Air New Zealand.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[workingdad]

Recommend by Paper Tiger :)

https://resizing.flixster.com/ia1DdG6b7UUWxVr942Ht_60xnkQ=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjIxMjc4MDtqOzE3MTk2OzEyMDA7NjQxOzk0OQ https://resizing.flixster.com/wgo4Apr60L8WsUZpIw6B7bSHIw4=/206x305/v1.bTsxMTQyMDkxMTtqOzE3Mjc3OzEyMDA7MzM3NTs1MDAw https://resizing.flixster.com/pv3Q00kAsC3KXe-24xRX79Rg1Ac=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI3MDMwMztwOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7NjkwOzkyMQ

Waiting to watch (Jackie Chan, Matt Damon & Shah Rukh Khan respectively):

https://resizing.flixster.com/xvsUzVpquPLYTTAcYvHc02yc2tg=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI5NTM5MTtqOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7MTQwMDsyMDc0 https://resizing.flixster.com/5q5frAvEvNxDvWhWLIpZpFraZTI=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjE5ODQwMjtqOzE3MTk2OzEyMDA7MTI5OTsxNzMy https://resizing.flixster.com/IJuAs5qX4ZtayMRQAQLOCtSavr0=/206x305/v1.bTsxMjI5NDY4MjtqOzE3MjQyOzEyMDA7Njk0OzkyNQ


Due to a conflict of interest I am currently unable to comment on Air New Zealand.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Conflict on the AIR page.... unheard of :cool:

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Seems average pre tax analyst estimate for FY18 has been revised up and is now $495m. They're estimating an average of $503 for Fy17 in the mid point of the companies own forecast.
I think you can treat the average analyst forecast for FY19 of just over $400m with a grain of salt at this stage.

[Nasi Goreng]

I like the way it's holding 220 today, sets up for a move higher into 230s ready for earnings.

Anyone know the release date?

[babymonster]

hopefully it can still close at 220... not looking good this afternoon

[workingdad]

A few will no doubt be cashing up while its had a good recovery and some avoiding the unknown with upcoming 6 month interim results perhaps?

[Raz]

A few will no doubt be cashing up while its had a good recovery and some avoiding the unknown with upcoming 6 month interim results perhaps?

If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.

I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-)

[couta1]

If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.

I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-) Still holding same oversized parcel, recent high of $2.27 was still under my average buy in price by a few cents. I reckon it will hit $2.35 before going Ex divvy though.

[workingdad]

If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.

I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-)

I thought about it but I don't hold as much as I used to when it was performing well or when catching the knife on the down fall. I think with tourism the way it is competition may not have the substantial impact, still there as per operating stats but I think the interim results will be reasonable and suggest a good divvy although after the last generous special maybe the purse strings will be a bit tighter looking ahead at potentially more challenging times.

Yep, Trump is a loose canon, a tweet here and there can bring many to their knees in an instant.

[simjp81]

Bought back in today at $2.17. Only a modest holding. Hopefully an as expected div. I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts over the coming days. Just a quick one, when are results expected?

[thestg]

Bought back in today at $2.17. Only a modest holding. Hopefully an as expected div. I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts over the coming days. Just a quick one, when are results expected?

23/02/17


Interim 2017 Earnings Release

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?

[couta1]

Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know? As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.

[sb9]

As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.

Those op stats for Dec should be out anytime and might give an indication of how things are trucking along...

[BlackPeter]

As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.

couta, with all due respect ... while it is easy and fashionable to beat up analysts, for the bunch of stocks I follow they hit the target price to roughly 60% over the last handful of years (meaning that the SP reaches or exceeds the consensus value at least once in the 12 month forecast window, excluding any shares where they predict a fall). This means, they are not perfect, but their predictions do add value.

Looking at AIR: consensus forecast for December 2016 (i.e made in December 2015) was $3.03. While AIR's highest SP in this month was $2.20, the share reached a high in January 2016 of $3.23 ... i.e. selling at that time you would have made money trusting the analysts ;)

As well - as far back as I can see picked the analysts for AIR in the past always target prices too high (if we look not a the 12 month period, but only at the target month). Over the 12 month window, they have been surprisingly accurate for AIR (in most 12 month periods in the last year less than 10% deviation from the target). Why do you think this suddenly changed?

[Beagle]

Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;

SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?

Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.

[BlackPeter]

Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.

Did you notice that on the relevant table the FY18 EBT is higher than the FY18 EBIT (negative interest?) and that EBIT & NPAT for FY18 is less than FY17 (*)? They might have mixed up some numbers, somewhat invalidating your positive assumptions for 2018.

What I want to point out - you are very welcome to be optimistic and put your money where your mouth is ... but it might be a good idea to review whether this optimism is based on solid data or just finger trouble.

(*) disclosure ... a friendly fellow poster who wants to be unnamed pointed me to this issue before I saw your post :);

[Beagle]

Did you notice that on the relevant table the FY18 EBT is higher than the FY18 EBIT (negative interest?) and that EBIT & NPAT for FY18 is less than FY17 (*)? They might have mixed up some numbers, somewhat invalidating your positive assumptions for 2018.

What I want to point out - you are very welcome to be optimistic and put your money where your mouth is ... but it might be a good idea to review whether this optimism is based on solid data or just finger trouble.

(*) disclosure ... a friendly fellow poster who wants to be unnamed pointed me to this issue before I saw your post :);

Thanks for pointing out that apparent discrepancy BP. I remain comfortable with my assumption about yield stabilizing and am happy to hold a modest position as part of a well diversified portfolio.

[couta1]

Thanks for pointing out that apparent discrepancy BP. I remain comfortable with my assumption about yield stabilizing and am happy to hold a modest position as part of a well diversified portfolio. Based on my own analysis, I'm happy to hold an outrageous portion as part of an unbalanced portfolio.:eek2:

[axe]

Made my day. :)


Based on my own analysis, I'm happy to hold an outrageous portion as part of an unbalanced portfolio.:eek2:

[percy]

Based on my own analysis, I'm happy to hold an outrageous portion as part of an unbalanced portfolio.:eek2:

Absolute classic.!!

[percy]

Well the Nervous Nellies are back.!
The sp ,$2.18, has fallen below the 200 day EMA [moving average] $2.20.
We live in interesting times.?

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, the chart looks ominous. Hoop nailed the top, question is where to from here.

[RupertBear]

Based on my own analysis, I'm happy to hold an outrageous portion as part of an unbalanced portfolio.:eek2:

Yep made my day too! Ya one in a million Couta :D

[Beagle]

Based on my own analysis, I'm happy to hold an outrageous portion as part of an unbalanced portfolio.:eek2:

LOL good luck with that approach mate and everyone knows we're mates so you know I mean that...but please be aware that your approach isn't recommended. See the section about diversification.
http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/what-does-the-bible-have-to-say-about-investing/ Joshua 1 V7 (be strong and courageous)...needs to be balanced with other advice contained in the good book.

P.S. I was going to e.mail you the above link mate but I decided others might also benefit from some of the wisdom in the link.

[couta1]

LOL good luck with that approach mate and everyone knows we're mates so you know I mean that...but please be aware that your approach isn't recommended. See the section about diversification.
http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/what-does-the-bible-have-to-say-about-investing/ Joshua 1 V7 (be strong and courageous)...needs to be balanced with other advice contained in the good book.

P.S. I was going to e.mail you the above link mate but I decided others might also benefit from some of the wisdom in the link. Thanks for that Roger, although with 44% of my portfolio total in Air I do have some diversity. I'm not a believer in over diversification these days for various reasons.

[sb9]

Still no sign of those op stats for Dec 16...

[tony64peter]

You tube " Eva b77w LAX"

ATC tape of recent departure LAX where EVA nearly buried one of their aircraft in the hills to the north

[Beagle]

Still no sign of those op stats for Dec 16...

I have it on very good authority that bean counters love taking a long Christmas holiday break at least as much as anyone else :) I'm sure it'll be out in due course mate and there's nothing to worry about.

[peat]

I have it on very good authority that bean counters love taking a long Christmas holiday break at least as much as anyone else :) I'm sure it'll be out in due course mate and there's nothing to worry about.
Either that or David Mackrell was pivotal in the whole process and Rob cant cope without him :p

[freddagg]

Still no sign of those op stats for Dec 16...

Last year the Dec update wasn't announced until the 28th

[simjp81]

December monthly update is in.

[tony64peter]

Looks to be in line with forecast, yield per passenger better. On flights with good synergies, high frequency and lower costs, lower RASk's are OK.

[simjp81]

Can someone please take the time to educate me on what RASK, ASK, and RPK is and what we are looking for in these to assess performance. Thanks in advance.

[peat]

Can someone please take the time to educate me on what RASK, ASK, and RPK is and what we are looking for in these to assess performance. Thanks in advance.
The announcement effectively defines them......
but SK = seat kilometres.
A = Available
R = Revenue

[tony64peter]

Can someone please take the time to educate me on what RASK, ASK, and RPK is and what we are looking for in these to assess performance. Thanks in advance.

RPK is revenue per passenger kilometre, but aircraft may be only half full that is why they also report load factors.
RASK revenue available seat kilometre, ie capacity. On routes that have lower costs usually associated with higher frequencies lower RASKs are acceptable.

[simjp81]

Thanks peat. So a higher RASK means more profitable and a reduction in RASK means they have been less profitable from the previous update or time period. Is that correct?

[tony64peter]

Group wide RASK down 9.3%. Group wide yield down 7.9%. They have made 1.4% in cost savings. Or is my logic flawed?

[boysy]

monthly stats are starting to paint a picture of competition starting to bite.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11788663

Passenger revenue in the first six months of Air New Zealand's financial year has fallen sharply, even when the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations are eliminated.

In an update to the NZX, the country's national airline said for the financial year to date, short haul passenger revenue through its preferred metric had fallen 6.3 per cent, while long-haul passenger revenue had slumped 14.3 per cent.

Air New Zealand's preferred metric is passenger revenue divided by the total capacity for the period, what it terms RASK.

When foreign exchange is eliminated, group-wide RASK fell 9.3 per cent, while yields, which represent passenger revenue per passenger kilometre flown fell 7.9 per cent.

For the month of December, Air New Zealand flew 1.59 million people, an increase of 5.4 per cent on the year earlier, although its aircraft weren't as full as a year earlier, with 83.5 per cent of all seats sold, down 1.5 per cent on December 2015.



This was mainly due to a fall in sales on flights to Asia, Japan and Singapore. 86.3 per cent of seats were sold on these services, down 5.6 per cent on a year ago. The airline had increased services in this region by 10.8 per cent, reflecting a new seasonal service between Japan and Osaka.

The percentage of seats sold on flights across the Tasman and the Pacific fell 2.7 per cent to 78.4 per cent. This was due to capacity rising faster than demand, with some routes switching to a larger aircraft and growth on the Perth and some Pacific Island routes.

Air New Zealand reported its best full year earnings in its 76-year history in August for the financial year which ended on June 30, 2016. Earnings before significant items and tax rose 70 per cent to $806m. Staff were paid a bonus to reflect the record results, while shareholders got a special one-off dividend.

At the time, the airline warned the outlook ahead was less rosy due to increased competition and rising fuel prices. It said it expected operating earnings for the 2017 financial year in the range of $400m to $600m.

The details are contained in the airline's monthly update to investors, which details December's market conditions. Air New Zealand's financial year runs from the beginning of July to the end of June. It's full half-year financial results are due to be released on February 23.

Air New Zealand declined to comment.

Shares of Air New Zealand rose 0.2 per cent or half a cent to $2.195. They've fallen 0.2 per cent since the start of the year.

[couta1]

Yawn,Yawn boysy, it's all baked into the current price and then some.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251976.pdf

Looks reasonable to me and I it looks to me that they're on track to meet the mid point of their profit guidance. If it were not so I believe they would have provided updated guidance by now.

[boysy]

As long as they are within the guidance which was itself as wide as a 747 they can do as they please I would of thought. One has to question what result has me market and the outlook going forward priced in ?

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251976.pdf

Looks reasonable to me and I it looks to me that they're on track to meet the mid point of their profit guidance. If it were not so I believe they would have provided updated guidance by now.

That's correct Roger, any major deviance from their forecast numbers would've prompted a trading update from the company. I think most of lower level of earnings are pretty much built into current sp and commentary at HY earnings next months re future outlook will determine how far the price can go.

[winner69]

That The Herald story gave the impression that revenues were down heaps - short haul 6.3% and long haul 14.3%. Using words like slumped implies disaster stuff.

Better get Paper Tiger to point out that things are not that bad eh = RASK is not revenues

How much revenues down PT - need an update we do

[Beagle]

That The Herald story gave the impression that revenues were down heaps - short haul 6.3% and long haul 14.3%. Using words like slumped implies disaster stuff.

Better get Paper Tiger to point out that things are not that bad eh = RASK is not revenues

How much revenues down PT - need an update we do

I think you might just have to "wing it" mate as Paper Tiger said a while back that he couldn't comment due to a "conflict of interest" Maybe he's on assignment with Tiger Airways :)
Anyway for what its worth the numbers looked slightly better in December than they did in November including year to date numbers.
Half year result is out in less than a month, on 23 February and I am sure we'll get a clear picture of how the year is progressing then and in the meantime this hound won't be panicked by any silly herald reporting and remains content to sit by the food bowl waiting for his next feed.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/cb2d5ec6/nz-consumer-prices-rise-at-fastest-annual-pace-in-2-1-2-years-kiwi-gains.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20consumer%20prices%20rise%20at%20 fastest%20annual%20pace%20in%202%2012%20years%20ki wi%20gains&utm_content=NZ%20consumer%20prices%20rise%20at%20f astest%20annual%20pace%20in%202%2012%20years%20kiw i%20gains+CID_2194c86a6489c0329a98190c5824ad45&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlecb2d5ec6nz-consumer-prices-rise-at-fastest-annual-pace-in-2-1-2-years-kiwi-gainshtml

Inflation for the December quarter. excerpt

Other transport costs also rose in the quarter, with international air fares up 11 percent and domestic fares rising 9.7 percent on heightened demand ahead of the holiday period. On an annual basis, international air fares fell 5.7 percent and domestic prices were down 1 percent.*

[bonmaklad]

Still holding 100% of my portfolio. Almost Feb. ... guess I have to plan to sell at least some to pay the dang tax man

[couta1]

That The Herald story gave the impression that revenues were down heaps - short haul 6.3% and long haul 14.3%. Using words like slumped implies disaster stuff.

Better get Paper Tiger to point out that things are not that bad eh = RASK is not revenues

How much revenues down PT - need an update we do They know how to spin things to paint a negative picture, and the nervous and gullible believe their every word, hence the price drop today (Some of the herald staff probably keen to pick up some cheap shares before the divvy aye)

[Beagle]

They know how to spin things to paint a negative picture, and the nervous and gullible believe their every word, hence the price drop today (Some of the herald staff probably keen to pick up some cheap shares before the divvy aye)

NBR has an article painting the same disingenuous picture.

[couta1]

NBR has an article painting the same disingenuous picture. Doesn't worry me, might even top up by selling my SPK holding and go for another XOS divvy.

[percy]

It is on days such as today, one's mind turns to "Snow Patrol's" great hit "Run."..........lol.

[couta1]

It is on days such as today, one's mind turns to "Snow Patrol's" great hit "Run."..........lol. Reminds me of that favourite kids song, The Wheels of the bus go round and round, we've been here before and will be again in the future, the Aircoaster isn't for the faint hearted or the fickle but is a rewarding and exciting ride for those in for the Long Haul.

[boysy]

Nothing disingenuous about the article it was pulled straight from the nzx release. Those here claim competition was built into the share price could very well be mistaken when the company outlook is released in February. If load factors continue to fall and they fly further for less I suspect the financial pain has only just started for air NZ.

[Snow Leopard]

That The Herald story gave the impression that revenues were down heaps - short haul 6.3% and long haul 14.3%. Using words like slumped implies disaster stuff.

Better get Paper Tiger to point out that things are not that bad eh = RASK is not revenues

How much revenues down PT - need an update we do

http://caroleschiffer.com/realtor/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/No-Comment-5-1-16.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Reminds me of that favourite kids song, The Wheels of the bus go round and round, we've been here before and will be again in the future, the Aircoaster isn't for the faint hearted or the fickle but is a rewarding and exciting ride for those in for the Long Haul.

Didn't the wheels on the bus fall off -----or was that just a version my kids used to sing

[couta1]

Didn't the wheels on the bus fall off -----or was that just a version my kids used to sing Nah, just the kids version mate, although nowdays there's many different versions of the same song, probably a good song for most sharemarket participants to sing from time to time I reckon, to keep the mind on an even keel.

[winner69]

It's all guru analyst at Craigs fault - lowering their target and taking a pessimistic view on this years earnings

Seemsworried about the $10/barrel increase in fuel costs



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0496c1b4/air-nz-s-share-price-target-lowered-by-craigs-analysts.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZs%20share%20price%20target%20 lowered%20by%20Craigs%20analysts&utm_content=Air%20NZs%20share%20price%20target%20l owered%20by%20Craigs%20analysts+CID_377879c162961e f6ec5b3118b8ae2884&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle0496c1b4air-nz-s-share-price-target-lowered-by-craigs-analystshtml

[bonmaklad]

Ok it dropped 3% when I posted.... I'll stay quiet

[thestg]

Closed on the 100 day EMA

[couta1]

It's all guru analyst at Craigs fault - lowering their target and taking a pessimistic view on this years earnings

Seemsworried about the $10/barrel increase in fuel costs



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0496c1b4/air-nz-s-share-price-target-lowered-by-craigs-analysts.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZs%20share%20price%20target%20 lowered%20by%20Craigs%20analysts&utm_content=Air%20NZs%20share%20price%20target%20l owered%20by%20Craigs%20analysts+CID_377879c162961e f6ec5b3118b8ae2884&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle0496c1b4air-nz-s-share-price-target-lowered-by-craigs-analystshtml Notice he also said, In the medium term, it's prospects remain solid and it's well positioned for the longer term due to its quality product, market position and demand growth. Things some of us are already well aware of, he did forget to mention reducing Capex though but we'll let him away with that aye.

[simjp81]

AIR always seems to do this to me. Buy in, SP falls heavy, sell and it climbs. Am I cursed.....

[RupertBear]

AIR always seems to do this to me. Buy in, SP falls heavy, sell and it climbs. Am I cursed.....

LOL me too! :D

[Beagle]

Nothing disingenuous about the article it was pulled straight from the nzx release. Those here claim competition was built into the share price could very well be mistaken when the company outlook is released in February. If load factors continue to fall and they fly further for less I suspect the financial pain has only just started for air NZ.

You are entitled to your opinion boysy just like you were when you were so adamant that HLG was going to be a train wreck but is now up over 30% including the dividend and all that since you so adamantly made your very negative point of view clear on numerous occasions.
I am very comfortable with my viewpoint that the press article was at the very least very poorly articulated, (I don't feel the need to spend endless ages unpacking exactly why on here) and in such a manner as to give a disingenuous viewpoint that revenue had fallen off a cliff.
You need to interpret data my friend...you simply cannot take it at face value and just like your pet store's such as H&M haven't destroyed HLG, Air Asia X, Jetheap and the other cheap and nasty airlines aren't going to destroy AIR. I will enjoy my AIR dividends just as much as my HLG ones :p

I disagree with Craigs assessment. Yields are already firming in response to slightly higher fuel prices since Sept and yield and fuel price is inextricably linked.

[Xerof]

sold some in the closing auctions last week at 2.24 and 2.27, bought 'em back in the closing auction today at 2.12

do what you think's right

[winner69]

Updated Paper Tiger's numbers seeing his lips are sealed

Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%
Nov: 99.30%
Dec: 98.48%

Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%
Nov: 96.21%
Dec: 93.24%


He said the maths were easy- easy enough for me I hope. He might break his seal of silence if I have them wrong.

As PT has said in the past some good news and some not so good news

Short haul better than November - that's good

If my maths are further correct passenger revenues will be down $8m or 3.8% on prior year

Not as much as the Herald were suggesting

[Poet]

Well, I'm hearing that the Trumposity is about to sign a rescindment of the ESTA regulations, so henceforth anyone wanting to visit the USA will have to attend a mano a mano interview at an American embassy, I'm thinking that this isn't going to be great for AIR. Thoughts?

[Beagle]

From the table accompanying the Dec release - all figures for the group, i.e. total sales and are as follows where X = last year to date sales.

RPK's are up 5.5% so X x 1.055 = 1.055. "Removing the impact of foreign exchange group wide yields YTD have decreased 7.9%"
Therefore 1.055 X at 7.9% lower average yield gives 1.055 x .921 = X = 0.971655 a 2.83% passenger sales decline in $Kiwi.

Note you do not need to account for lower loads as this is already factored into RPK's, i.e. RPK's are not revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK's).

Therefore passenger sales have fallen 2.83% in currency adjusted dollar terms for the year to date, (a vastly different figure than what has been inaccurately reported today). That still leaves freight, engineering and other sales and the profit they made on the disposal of their stake in VAL this half as compared to the carrying value as at 30 June 2016.

Of course they flew further but were using more efficient planes and fuel was cheaper than last year.

Customer revenue in the six months to 31/12/2015 was $2,308m, so I'm expecting circa $65m reduction in gross sales.

I think people are losing sight of the fact that profit of $801m before tax for the Fy16 year was heavily skewed to the fist half with $457m in 1H FY16 and only $344m in 2H FY16.
Of course this years yields will look worse, you're comparing two starkly different sets of circumstances, 1H FY16 when AIR had very little competition to 1H FY17 when competition is the diametric opposite.

That said even if all those sales came straight off the bottom line they made $457 before tax in the first half last year so $457 - $65m = $392m this half.

Of course I'm not suggesting that will be the number but the purpose of this post is to highlight the heralds folly and the folly generally of reading too much into the yield decline.

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.

[workingdad]

That ESTA was a good money spinner for them but cant imagine it being good for the US economy to shut down tourism like that which Trump as much as a loose cannon he is there does seem to be an impetus on anything good for the USA economy. I certainly wont go there once my current ESTA runs out or is cancelled if they implement anything like that..... So yep, AIR and other airlines on those routes will no doubt feel some effect.

Bit of an ugly day for AIR, plenty cashing in on the gains after riding the SP up and as we know, FA doesn't seem to account for much when it comes to AIR, what will tomorrow bring, bargain hunters or more jumping ship? I am not putting any money on it that's for sure.

[Arbroath]

From the table accompanying the Dec release - all figures for the group, i.e. total sales and are as follows where X - last years sales YTD.

RPK's are up 5.5% so X x 1.055 = 1.055. "Removing the impact of foreign exchange group wide yields YTD have decreased 7.9%"
Therefore 1.055 X at 7.9% lower average yield gives 1.055 x .921 = X = 0.971655.

Note you do not need to account for lower loads as this is already factored into RPK's, i.e. RPK's are not revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK's).

Therefore passenger sales have fallen 2.83% in currency adjusted dollar terms for the year to date, (a vastly different figure than what has been inaccurately reported today). That still leaves freight, engineering and other sales and the profit they made on the disposal of their stake in VAL this half as compared to the carrying value as at 30 June 2016.

Of course they flew further but were using more efficient planes and fuel was cheaper than last year.

Good points Roger. Only time will tell but my analysis points to Craig's being overly negative. There's still almost 5 months of the year to go but my guess based on RPKs, yields, fuel, more efficient planes etc is they they'll make $500-550m NPBT. I'd say I'm $100m more optimistic than Craig's but one of us will be wide of the mark.

[Xerof]

Well, I'm hearing that the Trumposity is about to sign a rescindment of the ESTA regulations, so henceforth anyone wanting to visit the USA will have to attend a mano a mano interview at an American embassy, I'm thinking that this isn't going to be great for AIR. Thoughts?
I'm hearing that report has since been rescinded - f'ing US media got it wrong. The Visa waiver programme remains for Kiwi's and other sensible people who are touring, but those wanting to work will need a more in-depth scan by border patrol. no drama's, as you were

[Poet]

I'm hearing that report has since been rescinded - f'ing US media got it wrong. The Visa waiver programme remains for Kiwi's and other sensible people who are touring, but those wanting to work will need a more in-depth scan by border patrol. no drama's, as you were

Well that's a relief, thanks for the clarification X.

[JeremyALD]

I wonder if travel to Wellington was impacted by the earthquakes since November.

I for one used to travel to work with AIR NZ every two weeks to NZ Post House. Since the earthquake I've been just twice as our building was impacted. I noted that prices to Wellington dropped over November and December to Wellington as not as many businesses were travelling there (where AIR NZ often charge as much as $350 one way) on peak flights.

That may have a small impact on total domestic revenue. I imagine things will be back to normal now as businesses get back to offices.

[Master98]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11789625
FYI.

[couta1]

Good points Roger. Only time will tell but my analysis points to Craig's being overly negative. There's still almost 5 months of the year to go but my guess based on RPKs, yields, fuel, more efficient planes etc is they they'll make $500-550m NPBT. I'd say I'm $100m more optimistic than Craig's but one of us will be wide of the mark. Agree, great work Roger and i share your sentiments Arbroath, many have overlooked just how good Air are going to do on the domestic front this year. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

[boysy]

Agree, great work Roger and i share your sentiments Arbroath, many have overlooked just how good Air are going to do on the domestic front this year. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

Have to laugh at your post, you would rather buyers listen to anonymous posters (who are clearly long air) than professionals who put their name and reputation behind their analysis.

[couta1]

Have to laugh at your post, you would rather buyers listen to anonymous posters (who are clearly long air) than professionals who put their name and reputation behind their analysis. Those professionals make money from Churn, they don't give a toss about people losing money unecessarily, unlike the genuine posters on here whose primary motivation is to help others and take the time to do so(This includes sharing mistakes not just successes)

[sb9]

Whichever way you slice and dice the numbers 10c divvy for this half is sure thing I reckon.....

[RGR367]

.................. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.

And I wholeheartedly agree!

[simjp81]

Whichever way you slice and dice the numbers 10c divvy for this half is sure thing I reckon.....

If its not, fasten your sealbelts.

[simjp81]

Seems to be tracking along ok so far today. Bigger volume buying in than selling. Will be interesting to see what happens in Friday afternoon trading.

[winner69]

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.

No wonder the share price is collapsing

That forecast must be worse than Craigs effort .... and with that as a H1 result wouldn't they be struggling to reach FY $500m (mid point)

[Beagle]

No wonder the share price is collapsing

That forecast must be worse than Craigs effort .... and with that as a H1 result wouldn't they be struggling to reach FY $500m (mid point)

Not at all mate. 2H incorporates the busy summer season and yields on tickets sold have been firming lately, (remember there's an average two month lag between ticket sale and travel date). A lot of the shoulder season fares in October / November were sold a few months earlier when oil was low and competition was very hot. This summer season the tourists are here in record numbers and I predict when future monthly stat's come out you'll see yield looking comparatively better than it has been YTD.

Actually mate we're starting to see evidence of that already. In the November operating stat's group yield YTD was down 8.6% compared to last year and in the December stat's group yield YTD was down 7.9%. Conclusion, ticket sales towards the back end of the IH must have been at quite a bit better yields to move the YTD yield needle that much in just one month (Dec).

I think we'll continue to see that YTD yield decline reduce as the year goes on. I think $260-$280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.

[couta1]

Not at all mate. 2H incorporates the busy summer season and yields on tickets sold have been firming lately, (remember there's an average two month lag between ticket sale and travel date). A lot of the shoulder season fares in October / November were sold a few months earlier when oil was low and competition was very hot. This summer season the tourists are here in record numbers and I predict when future monthly stat's come out you'll see yield looking comparatively better than it has been YTD.

Actually mate we're starting to see evidence of that already. In the November operating stat's group yield YTD was down 8.6% compared to last year and in the December stat's group yield YTD was down 7.9%. Conclusion, ticket sales towards the back end of the IH must have been at quite a bit better yields to move the YTD yield needle that much in just one month (Dec).

I think we'll continue to see that YTD yield decline reduce as the year goes on. I think $260-$280m is on the cards for 2H FY17. That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

[RupertBear]

That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

Coutas in top up mode!! :eek2:

[arc]

That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.

Couta. The possibility of the weather patterns being good for winter (skiing, travel, visitors...etc) are not certain. There was less rain fall and more wind over the last winter. Climate change will create seemingly chaotic events buried amongst a background trend line. What will emerge over the next 5 years is larger and longer lasting storms.

[winner69]

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.

After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)

Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million

CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m

Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m

Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.

Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.

[simjp81]

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/88802209/Air-New-Zealand-to-increase-Nelson-flights-on-back-of-busiest-month-for-airport

[couta1]

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/88802209/Air-New-Zealand-to-increase-Nelson-flights-on-back-of-busiest-month-for-airport Just confirming what I've been saying for a while on here now, a ripper of a year on the domestic front coming up.

[winner69]

Hey couts - a neat looking plane parked up at WLG

Seems to be this Guns n Roses Airline

More competition for AIR?

[Beagle]

After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)

Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million

CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m

Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m

Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.

Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.

Hi Winner,
Agree on your $60 oil average last year.
In late January 2016 when Brent oil hit a low ~ $30 barrel based on the conference call I listened into at their interim result in Feb 2016 I understand AIR very astutely went to their maximum allowable, (within their own pre-determined criteria) forward cover position on oil. I believe in Q1 FY17 AIR were enjoying utilizing that extremely well timed forward cover which together with more use of more fuel efficient planes augers well for some ongoing CASK improvement in IH FY17. CASK price pressure will be felt with higher fuel prices since then. They were also running the little Beechcraft 1900 planes last year that are fuel hungry for their size and have been on record saying they were losing $1m a month of that fleet last year which isn't repeated 1H FY17.

As we move into 2H FY17 they have recently taken delivery of another 3 Dreamliners (9 in total now) and are exiting their remaining fuel hungry 767's this half from March so we should see ongoing fuel efficiency gains this half, offset by slightly higher fuel prices but augmented by better yields, (recall the CPI data link I posted last week showing the substantial increase in international airfares in the last quarter of 2016).

I'm happy with my pick of ~ $240m, (its good for a bean counter to be conservative) and as I mentioned by e.mail last week I feel $260-280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.

Just my old steam powered abacus...probably miles off...we'll know a lot more in a few weeks when they report and I'll probably be miles out lol

You could well be right and the profit could be ~ $300 and CASK could really surprise to the downside. I think its possible CASK could be as low as 8.6 - 8.7 cents. Maybe we both get a big surprise in a few weeks :)

(Cask is cost per available seat kilometer in case anyone is wondering)

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d20bfc86/nz-tourism-immigration-hit-fresh-records-in-calendar-2016.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20tourism%20immigration%20hit%20fr esh%20records%20in%20calendar%202016&utm_content=NZ%20tourism%20immigration%20hit%20fre sh%20records%20in%20calendar%202016+CID_5dbb9987cc 666500d3772d66ab719afe&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled20bfc86nz-tourism-immigration-hit-fresh-records-in-calendar-2016html

Good for AIR, THL and some other stocks.

[simjp81]

Looks like another drop in SP today. Must be that 2.09 valuation.

[bonmaklad]

Dodgy valuing going on. More transactions. More cuts. I suppose.

I was going to sell some but I'll just take my 10c divi then

[simjp81]

Dodgy valuing going on. More transactions. More cuts. I suppose.

I was going to sell some but I'll just take my 10c divi then

Wise idea, coz as soon as you sell it is bound to shoot back up again.

[simjp81]

Whats the general view on the 2.09 valuation anyway. Accurate or not?

[couta1]

Whats the general view on the 2.09 valuation anyway. Accurate or not? Accumulating :)

[simjp81]

Accumulating :)

Haha, good answer couta

[Beagle]

Accumulating :)

You'll have to change your user name to "One Bet Barney" soon mate :) P.S. Please don't misconstrue this post as a recommendation to do this.

[winner69]

Whats the general view on the 2.09 valuation anyway. Accurate or not?

In the eyes of the analyst who did the calculation very accurate

Just that others use diferent assumptions and some are driven by sentiment ...and disagree

One of my scenarios based on long term cyclical trends is that we will see $1.50 again - thats accurate as well .....but most disagree

What's your accurate guess?

[simjp81]

Based on PE and Price/Book around the 2.14 to 2.16 mark. But im new at thus game and an yet to master better methods to master intrinsic value.

[winner69]

Based on PE and Price/Book around the 2.14 to 2.16 mark. But im new at thus game and an yet to master better methods to master intrinsic value.

Good one

Just remember the market will invariably not agree with you - that's the way the gaes played.

[couta1]

You'll have to change your user name to "One Bet Barney" soon mate :) P.S. Please don't misconstrue this post as a recommendation to do this. Just for you I've changed it to a more appropriate user name, hope you like it.:)

[stoploss]

Just for you I've changed it to a more appropriate user name, hope you like it.:)

Whats that mean "you're all out of love " for AIR.NZ ?

[carrom74]

Air NZ just closed at 208 cents same price as yesterday on ASX and almost on par with NZX closing price(210Cents)...Late revival in ASX? or short covering? any guesses?

[couta1]

Whats that mean "you're all out of love " for AIR.NZ ? I think you meant to say "Lost in Love", aye.

[Xerof]

I think you meant to say "Lost in Love", aye.

I thought you were thinking of "I can wait forever", or "I'll never get enough of you"

:D

[sb9]

NZ dual citizens now free to travel to US



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11792372

[Beagle]

Just for you I've changed it to a more appropriate user name, hope you like it.:)

Nice one mate. I went bird watching last evening at Auckland airport with a lovely set of binoculars my Mum gave me for Christmas. Huge number and variety of AIR birds were looking superb in the warm summer evening sun as they took off and others landed. Very pleasant way to pass an hour or so of time. A real hive of activity. Loaded up my broker call account with some more capital this morning.
Might look to buy some more if the result is a good sound one like I think it'll be.

[mondograss]

An idea for Air NZ to ponder:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/88964771/japan-airlines-lets-dogs-travel-in-main-cabin-with-owners

[Beagle]

An idea for Air NZ to ponder:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/88964771/japan-airlines-lets-dogs-travel-in-main-cabin-with-owners

Great idea...I could take Basil and Skippy...there are now three real classes of travel, with kids, without kids and now even better still, without kids but with your favorite dogs :t_up:

[mondograss]

I suspect my big Jessie-girl would be living up to her name on a flight, but if I had to I'd rather have her in the cabin than have to sedate her, crate her and put her in the hold.

[simjp81]

Am I right in my thinking that lower volume than the average volume coupled with an increase in SP is a warning sign? Im thinking that if volume goes up above average then the SP will follow and visa versa. Am I on the right track?

[Baa_Baa]

Am I right in my thinking that lower volume than the average volume coupled with an increase in SP is a warning sign? Im thinking that if volume goes up above average then the SP will follow and visa versa. Am I on the right track?

It's called the Couta effect, not documented in TA manuals specifically but comparable with divergence where one indicator (volume in this case) contradicts share price movement.

Lol just teasing, it is a divergence, which is a TA warning, but has nothing to do with our friends love affair with AIR.

[simjp81]

It's called the Couta effect, not documented in TA manuals specifically but comparable with divergence where one indicator (volume in this case) contradicts share price movement.

Lol just teasing, it is a divergence, which is a TA warning, but has nothing to do with our friends love affair with AIR.

Haha, thanks. So today AIR had significantly lower volume compared to the average and had a slight increase in SP. Does this signal anything or is a one off event ok. What i mean is, to see actual divergence, do we see it appear over time rather than over a single trading day.

[Beagle]

Haha, thanks. So today AIR had significantly lower volume compared to the average and had a slight increase in SP. Does this signal anything or is a one off event ok. What i mean is, to see actual divergence, do we see it appear over time rather than over a single trading day.
Too much staring and trying to read the tea leaves is bad for your eyes, much more fun bird watching at the airport. All will be revealed on 23 February.:sleep:

[Baa_Baa]

Haha, thanks. So today AIR had significantly lower volume compared to the average and had a slight increase in SP. Does this signal anything or is a one off event ok. What i mean is, to see actual divergence, do we see it appear over time rather than over a single trading day.

You're talking TA now, any divergence is a warning, either way, if it continues over time the warning is re-enforced or strengthening.

This may just be a simple indication of lower volume punters, relative to the bigger funds/brokers, lining up for the excellent dividend regardless of share price.

The long holds will be loving the exposure to dividends earnings and less concerned about day to day share price movements.

That's probably the difference between capital sensitive investors and longer term earnings oriented investors.

[simjp81]

Makes sense. Thanks everyone. I think Im more of an earnings kinda guy. But just trying to understand all sides really.

[QOH]

If AIR ever allow falcons to buy seats on their planes, will be the day I sell my shares.

[Beagle]

I suspect my big Jessie-girl would be living up to her name on a flight, but if I had to I'd rather have her in the cabin than have to sedate her, crate her and put her in the hold.

I'd imagine it would create an extraordinary amount of extra cleaning work for the aircraft interiors. Naughty Basil has been known to love marking his territory so I can't see dogs being allowed in the main cabin as being very practical from an operational perspective with the tight turnaround times airlines are working too these days.

[dobby41]

I'd imagine it would create an extraordinary amount of extra cleaning work for the aircraft interiors. Naughty Basil has been known to love marking his territory so I can't see dogs being allowed in the main cabin as being very practical from an operational perspective with the tight turnaround times airlines are working too these days.

I'd never use the fold down tray again!

[couta1]

Makes sense. Thanks everyone. I think Im more of an earnings kinda guy. But just trying to understand all sides really. Follow your Gutometer and may the Air-force be with you.:)

[thestg]

https://scontent-nrt1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p480x480/16387987_1271078932948343_6780205795577847117_n.jp g?oh=77f291313d13359e40a7ced860b6ecf2&oe=590F888A
This guy got the idea after traveling on JetStar

[winner69]

Our mate Christopher probably pleased he and AIR no longer involved with Virgin

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=VAH&E=ASX&N=996367

[workingdad]

Our mate Christopher probably pleased he and AIR no longer involved with Virgin

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=VAH&E=ASX&N=996367

As am I :)

Really looking forward to AIRs results. I am actually thinking it will be pretty decent and in the upper range of guidance. I know there is increased competition and discounting going on but I cant get past the increase in RPKs and load factors all looking pretty solid. Domestic being the good income earner that is has been is only 0.1% lower load factor despite >7% increase in ASKs and RPKs and >5% increase in passenger numbers.

Internationally stats are looking alright so it will come down to how heavy the discounting is impacting on revenue but from my perspective looking at pricing yes there has been some good bargains but follow through on looking at them and it seems the numbers are limited.

Thinking about buying some more but AIR has a decent bite at times and I am a bit shy as a result.....

[winner69]

I hear that Air NZ have formed a tiger team to come up with plans to mitigate any potential damage under different scenarios if Trump's actions change the way the world travels.

[Robomo]

I hear that Air NZ have formed a tiger team to come up with plans to mitigate any potential damage under different scenarios if Trump's actions change the way the world travels.

Added to which, the CEO's of the big 3 international airlines in the USA (Delta, American, United) have jointly approached the Government to review the 'Open Skies' policy that (so they say) have unfairly advantaged the big Middle Eastern Airlines (Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) and the supposed help they get from their Governments.

Who knows what policies President Trump will suddenly announce that favour the US airlines everywhere. Anything is possible at the moment.

[Beagle]

Our mate Christopher probably pleased he and AIR no longer involved with Virgin

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=VAH&E=ASX&N=996367

Gearing still at 4.5 times equity after all that capital raised in 2016 Ouch !! I always said that capital raise was the bare minimum. Virgin are still in a vulnerable financial position.
I am very pleased AIR extricated themselves from any financial association with them. Code sharing is fine but if get into bed with a dog, you wake up with fleas !

[stoploss]

Only problem being you are code sharing with a cash strapped airline . I always worry about maintenance etc with airlines that are struggling financially .Much prefer just to be on AIR.NZ

[winner69]

Wonder if Christopher did some deep thinking over the holidays and decided that for Air New Zealand to take that next step it's time to pivot.

I'll be reading his presentations closely to see how often he uses the word pivot in 2017

[winner69]

A year ago when AIR share price was hovering around 300 Luxon's halo shone brightly

He then disappointed a few and some said his halo was pretty tarnished

Current view - halo all bright and shining again?

Been in the job for a while now - I reckon he looking around for another job. Should have taken that Fonterra job a year ago.

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed that analyst confidence keeps dropping: They sliced another percentage or so off the estimated revenue for the years to come, and a bit more off the EPS estimates. 12 month target price is now $2.09 (the trend is not a pretty sight), recommendation a weak hold (4.58 out of 10);

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

SP scratched a fast dropping MA200 - is this what an uptrend looks like?

8659

[winner69]

Just noticed that analyst confidence keeps dropping: They sliced another percentage or so off the estimated revenue for the years to come, and a bit more off the EPS estimates. 12 month target price is now $2.09 (the trend is not a pretty sight), recommendation a weak hold (4.58 out of 10);

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

SP scratched a fast dropping MA200 - is this what an uptrend looks like?

8659


Looks like a downtrend - lower highs and lower lows

Will sub 170 be the next low

[Beagle]

Been in an uptrend for the last 4 months or so from ~ $1.70 and still clearly above the 100 day MA - no worries.

[Beagle]

Well I always said AIR are well to get shot of Virgin and getting their stake away at ~ A31 cents wasn't too shabby in the circumstances. AIR will book a reasonable profit on disposal in the current half to be reported soon on their remaining stake which if I remember correctly was written down to about 21 cents as at balance date 30 June, which they also subsequently sold for ~ A31 cents.

Both good results for the sale when the SP at the time was languishing in the low - mid 20 cent range and with the benefit of more hindsight a satisfactory result with Virgin hitting all time lows today of 19.5 cents and looks to be headed even lower.

Various posters who I shall not name suggested Chris Luxon was a hot head and were crazy to sell their stake, one or two posters even suggested VAH with its still extremely stretched balance sheet was a better bet than AIR going forward.

I think the passage of time has shown Chris Luxon took the bull by the horns and did extremely well to extricate the company from Virgin at a satisfactory price and sweep the floor clean of previous management's flawed Australian expansion strategy.

In addition I note AIR paid out the full proceeds of the sale as a special divvy last year. I for one am very pleased as a shareholder this money is in my pocket rather than still invested in Virgin. I suspect the Government feels exactly the same way.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Added to which, the CEO's of the big 3 international airlines in the USA (Delta, American, United) have jointly approached the Government to review the 'Open Skies' policy that (so they say) have unfairly advantaged the big Middle Eastern Airlines (Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) and the supposed help they get from their Governments.

Who knows what policies President Trump will suddenly announce that favour the US airlines everywhere. Anything is possible at the moment.

Yep American Airlines are absolutely terrified of sand state airlines. Offering Americans flights in modern clean planes at reasonable prices would cause a stampede of customers.

A sort of Mexican stand-off has devloped with sand state airlines well aware the American airlines own the best congressmen that money can buy. So far they have limited their routes to and from the US to ones the American carriers don't fly to avoid provoking a reaction.

It will only take someone to flinch before undertakers start carrying airlines up Boot Hill for burial.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[RTFQ]

Yep American Airlines are absolutely terrified of sand state airlines. Offering Americans flights in modern clean planes at reasonable prices would cause a stampede of customers.

A sort of Mexican stand-off has devloped with sand state airlines well aware the American airlines own the best congressmen that money can buy. So far they have limited their routes to and from the US to ones the American carriers don't fly to avoid provoking a reaction.

It will only take someone to flinch before undertakers start carrying airlines up Boot Hill for burial.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Good post........

[simjp81]

Looks like a bit of a down trend here. Looking forward to results day.