AIR - Air NZ.

[Robomo]

Not AIR, but bad look for United Airlines

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2017/04/10/video-shows-man-forcibly-removed-united-flight-chicago-louisville/100274374/

Overbooked a flight, let everyone board, then decide that 4 passengers need to be offloaded, no one puts their hands up, so 4 chosen at random, one refuses, gets man handled off the flight...

Appalling behaviour by United, they deserve all the negative publicity they will surely get - providing of course that the news report is correct.

Some years ago I was on an overbooked Qantas flight from Sydney to Auckland. They offered apologies, lounge access, free upgrade to business on the next flight (about 3 hours later on an Air NZ flight) and a voucher ($100 if I remember correctly). It was well done and I just managed to be one of the lucky ones happy to get an upgrade and $100, just for waiting 3 hours. I felt good about Qantas for a long time after that.

[Beagle]

Not AIR, but bad look for United Airlines

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2017/04/10/video-shows-man-forcibly-removed-united-flight-chicago-louisville/100274374/

Overbooked a flight, let everyone board, then decide that 4 passengers need to be offloaded, no one puts their hands up, so 4 chosen at random, one refuses, gets man handled off the flight...

That is absolutely appalling and truly shocking. How do they think they can possibly get away with treating passengers that way ?
I am sure this will go viral on the internet and news services around the world and cost United many millions in lost bookings and there will be a substantial compensation payment involved as well. I am sure the gentleman's lawyers will be salivating at the prospects of laying into United with a very significant lawsuit.
Yet on a day that this is starting to go viral and oil is up and United's reputation is in the toilet their share price went up...go figure on that one ?

[winner69]

That is absolutely appalling and truly shocking. How do they think they can possibly get away with treating passengers that way ?
I am sure this will go viral on the internet and news services around the world and cost United many millions in lost bookings and there will be a substantial compensation payment involved as well. I am sure the gentleman's lawyers will be salivating at the prospects of laying into United with a very significant lawsuit.
Yet on a day that this is starting to go viral and oil is up and United's reputation is in the toilet their share price went up...go figure on that one ?

Punters liked the 100% capacity number - share price up

[Beagle]

Punters liked the 100% capacity number - share price up

Someone please pass me a sick bag, if that's the reason that's capitalism at its most ugly !

[RGR367]

It really looks bad on this other video of it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9bRZZmro_s

https://www.resultcare.com/single-post/Elderly-Physician-Violently-Assaulted-by-United-Airlines (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9bRZZmro_s)

[dobby41]

It really looks bad on this other video of it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9bRZZmro_s

https://www.resultcare.com/single-post/Elderly-Physician-Violently-Assaulted-by-United-Airlines (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9bRZZmro_s)




United are stuffed!
It will be a long road back to a happy PR place.

[BlackPeter]

United are stuffed!
It will be a long road back to a happy PR place.

Looks like they have a clear "customers first" policy, even if it is just to drag them first off the plane ;).

The resulting PR damage must go into the 6 digits or possibly millions (depending on how they play this from here). Hard to understand why they didn't just offer the first 4 volunteers say $1000 each to take the next plane - and everything would have been settled.

But I guess this way the created a lot of free PR for every other carrier ... priceless.

Discl: Flew United once (in 1995) and never used them since ...

[winner69]

Someone please pass me a sick bag, if that's the reason that's capitalism at its most ugly !

Isn't that how the world works these days ........

[777]

Looks like they have a clear "customers first" policy, even if it is just to drag them first off the plane ;).

The resulting PR damage must go into the 6 digits or possibly millions (depending on how they play this from here). Hard to understand why they didn't just offer the first 4 volunteers say $1000 each to take the next plane - and everything would have been settled.

But I guess this way the created a lot of free PR for every other carrier ... priceless.

Discl: Flew United once (in 1995) and never used them since ...


This is what is offered but it still didn't get any takers.

"Passengers were told at the gate that the flight was overbooked and United, offering $400 and a hotel stay, was looking for one volunteer to take another flight to Louisville at 3 p.m. Monday. Passengers were allowed to board the flight, Bridges said, and once the flight was filled those on the plane were told that four people needed to give up their seats to stand-by United employees that needed to be in Louisville on Monday for a flight. Passengers were told that the flight would not take off until the United crew had seats, Bridges said, and the offer was increased to $800, but no one volunteered."

[winner69]

Funny world - some calling for the video taker to be arrested

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/851564111896989696

[Beagle]

Isn't that how the world works these days ........

For some...maybe. SKC for example inflict great social harm on many of their customers but you wouldn't think an airline would do it !
On another level I suppose you're referring to how all airlines are dirty polluters and how so many multinational companies exploit dirt cheap labor in countries like Bangladesh and all sorts of other social and moral arguments but its perhaps worth noting that the average salary at AIR is over $100K per person and they crew get six weeks annual leave and most I have talked too see AIR as a very responsible employer with a very good culture. I think there's a ton of work to do to improve the culture at United. Their whole over-booking and dismemberment procedures in cases of overbooking look like they're badly in need of a total overhaul to me !

[winner69]

I wasn't referring to AIR in my earlier comment - was just responding to your sick bag comment about capitalism (which was closer to the truth than you hought)

Anyway hope the big AIRplane looks after me tomorrow - at least not one of those awful Dreamliners.

[Beagle]

I wasn't referring to AIR in my earlier comment - was just responding to your sick bag comment about capitalism (which was closer to the truth than you hought)

Anyway hope the big AIRplane looks after me tomorrow - at least not one of those awful Dreamliners.

Have a good time mate, happy holiday :) BTW Capitalism doesn't need to be sick, making plenty of money and providing a nice service / product to customers are not mutually exclusive activities, (94% industry leading satisfaction rate at SUM a good example and AIR winning premium economy airline of the year award again another good example) You flying PE again this time or slumming it down the back with the rest of us less capitalist mortals ? :D

[Joshuatree]

Yes me too; hope they've installed a comfortable fence for you onboard to sit on:).

[dobby41]

Have a good time mate, happy holiday :) BTW Capitalism doesn't need to be sick, making plenty of money and providing a nice service / product to customers are not mutually exclusive activities,

absolutely right .

[Xerof]

Without wishing to inflame the discussion, you will find that most, if not all airlines take over-bookings. This is because there are almost always 'no-shows'. Each airline will have stats that provide a solid basis for determining how many no-shows there are for each route, time of day etc, and they will look to 'wing it' with overbookings. To my knowledge, Singapore Airlines are the most notorious

[skid]

Without wishing to inflame the discussion, you will find that most, if not all airlines take over-bookings. This is because there are almost always 'no-shows'. Each airline will have stats that provide a solid basis for determining how many no-shows there are for each route, time of day etc, and they will look to 'wing it' with overbookings. To my knowledge, Singapore Airlines are the most notorious

Pretty heavy handed approach to remedying the situation though...only in America?---Ive come to the conclusion that ,although i think price is an important factor--I would make an exception to avoid going through USA if I was going on somewhere else---(apparently tourism has declined since all the trump bans and that ''going through your computers and cell phone shenanigans).

[Lola]

Pretty heavy handed approach to remedying the situation though...only in America?---Ive come to the conclusion that ,although i think price is an important factor--I would make an exception to avoid going through USA if I was going on somewhere else---(apparently tourism has declined since all the trump bans and that ''going through your computers and cell phone shenanigans).

For the life of me I cannot see what all this United stuff has ANYTHING to do with AIR NZ and how it and what economic issues that might affect Air NZ should be discussed on this forum. Give it a break guys , its pathetic.

[Raz]

Someone please pass me a sick bag, if that's the reason that's capitalism at its most ugly !

Its terrible in this case however the other side of this is it is really great for those flexible. I have usually take advantage of this in the States on internal flights. I always book the second last flight of the night, happens 75% of the time they make an offer, I only take them up on it if they offer 800$ or higher compensation and still end up at my destination on the last flight of the night. Pays for all your domestic travel :-)

[percy]

Its terrible in this case however the other side of this is it is really great for those flexible. I have usually take advantage of this in the States on internal flights. I always book the second last flight of the night, happens 75% of the time they make an offer, I only take them up on it if they offer 800$ or higher compensation and still end up at my destination on the last flight of the night. Pays for all your domestic travel :-)
Love it.
Good on you.

[Robomo]

For the life of me I cannot see what all this United stuff has ANYTHING to do with AIR NZ and how it and what economic issues that might affect Air NZ should be discussed on this forum. Give it a break guys , its pathetic.

Well, it does. United is part of Star Alliance, as is Air New Zealand. A bad reputation on one airline will have an effect on other members. How AIR responds to this sudden interest in overbooking policy will have an effect on the travelling public, so it is an economic issue.

[Lola]

Well, it does. United is part of Star Alliance, as is Air New Zealand. A bad reputation on one airline will have an effect on other members. How AIR responds to this sudden interest in overbooking policy will have an effect on the travelling public, so it is an economic issue.
BS
Doubt whether our MPs will suddenly switch to J Star
If you are concerned Robono take a boat and sell AIR
Two birds one stone

Anyway Uniteds actions totally as per the small print and air travel in the US is hardly ever a wonderful experience
End

[777]

BS
Doubt whether our MPs will suddenly switch to J Star
If you are concerned Robono take a boat and sell AIR
Two birds one stone

Anyway Uniteds actions totally as per the small print and air travel in the US is hardly ever a wonderful experience
End

Small print eh. "we can beat the living snot out of anyone we like." I doubt it.

[Robomo]

BS
Doubt whether our MPs will suddenly switch to J Star
If you are concerned Robono take a boat and sell AIR
Two birds one stone

Anyway Uniteds actions totally as per the small print and air travel in the US is hardly ever a wonderful experience
End

To come back to your original argument that United's actions would not have an effect on AIR...

I flew from Melbourne to Christchurch earlier today on AIR. There was a United plane boarding for LAX near our gate and I overheard a group of Americans talking about the video and how they were not surprised that it had happened. One of the group specifically said that he found the AIR flight from LAX-AKL he had been on a couple of weeks ago far better than the internal United connecting flight and that he was not looking forward to being on the United MEL-LAX flight today.

I know it's anecdotal but added to what other posters on this thread have reported in the past on how Americans view AIR, it's hardly surprising that AIR have by far the lion's share of LAX-AKL business.

Good economics to keep the customer happy eh Lola? Perhaps it's not surprising that AIRs SP went up today!

[Robomo]

Further to the economics of United's actions, this is a letter from http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2017/04/10/really-happened-last-night-doctor-dragged-off-united-flight-happens-youre-denied-boarding/

Brian Doyle says:
April 10, 2017 at 7:53 pm
After watching this video I’m glad that when I fly, I fly with Australian Carriers and New Zealand Carriers.
Eg. Qantas, Virgin Australia and Air New Zealand just don’t do this thing of kicking off passengers off there flights. Especially in the manner that United Airlines did. It’s been shown on Australian Television all over the country. Even here people are shocked at what they did, this will question peoples choice on flying with United Airlines from Australia to the USA, I know I certainly will. It will be either Qantas, Virgin Australia or Air New Zealand.

[Subway]

BS
Doubt whether our MPs will suddenly switch to J Star
If you are concerned Robono take a boat and sell AIR
Two birds one stone

Anyway Uniteds actions totally as per the small print and air travel in the US is hardly ever a wonderful experience
End

United are the US code share for Air NZ, and it was a domestic United flight, so it really does have significance for Air NZ, even if you think its minor.

[Marilyn Munroe]

The United assaults customer debacle is symptomatic of how horribly things can go wrong when you subcontract core parts of your business.

Although the plane had United painted on the fueselage it was operated by a subcontractor. The stuff up not releasing there were staff requiring seats to travel to their task was made by a different ground handling contractor.

The interests of the principal United are not the same of as the subcontractos and often one subcontractor has no insight into what other subcontractors are doing.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Subway]

The United assaults customer debacle is symptomatic of how horribly things can go wrong when you subcontract core parts of your business.

Although the plane had United painted on the fueselage it was operated by a subcontractor. The stuff up not releasing there were staff requiring seats to travel to their task was made by a different ground handling contractor.

The interests of the principal United are not the same of as the subcontractos and often one subcontractor has no insight into what other subcontractors are doing.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Its no different to Zeal320, Air Nelson and Mount Cook Airlines, as far as the passenger is concerned they are on an Air NZ ticket, regardless of the subcontractor. There really is no excuse, Republic applied United policies, on a United ticket.

http://atwonline.com/blog/united-bumped-passenger-video-damages-all-airlines

[Raz]

For the life of me I cannot see what all this United stuff has ANYTHING to do with AIR NZ and how it and what economic issues that might affect Air NZ should be discussed on this forum. Give it a break guys , its pathetic.

If this results in making over booking illegal and changes the industry standards this will effect profitability of the entire sector..so think a little more broadly or others may think your a touch pathetic :-)

[winner69]

It's OK - UAL tumbled more than 3% on open

Punters must have realised 100% capacity on 1 flight not the norm. Latest stats had load factor at 81%

[Zaphod]

For the life of me I cannot see what all this United stuff has ANYTHING to do with AIR NZ and how it and what economic issues that might affect Air NZ should be discussed on this forum. Give it a break guys , its pathetic.

AirNZ do occasionally overbook flights in order to maximise revenue. North American carriers, especially those domiciled in the US use overbooking far more frequently. This particular situation is somewhat different to standard overbooking scenarios however.

IMO, the concern about the incident and associated discussion in this forum is valid.

[Beagle]

Its terrible in this case however the other side of this is it is really great for those flexible. I have usually take advantage of this in the States on internal flights. I always book the second last flight of the night, happens 75% of the time they make an offer, I only take them up on it if they offer 800$ or higher compensation and still end up at my destination on the last flight of the night. Pays for all your domestic travel :-)

You're as cunning as a hungry fox.


If this results in making over booking illegal and changes the industry standards this will effect profitability of the entire sector..so think a little more broadly or others may think your a touch pathetic :-)

Delta's system when you book online is likely to become the industry standard in my opinion. As part of the booking system you are asked to pre-select at what price you would be prepared to be re-accommodated, boxes to tick include $200, $300, $400, $500 or name your price. This methodology allows them to effectively minimize their re - accommodation costs by choosing the most flexible passengers. Your days of getting $800 compensation might be slowly drawing to a close, enjoy while you can.


It's OK - UAL tumbled more than 3% on open

Punters must have realised 100% capacity on 1 flight not the norm. Latest stats had load factor at 81%

Down 4% at one stage and ended the day down just on 1% after the CEO very belatedly issued a proper apology. Just as well you're not travelling United on your holiday eh :)

Lola, people want to have their say, no harm it that :)

[skid]

For the life of me I cannot see what all this United stuff has ANYTHING to do with AIR NZ and how it and what economic issues that might affect Air NZ should be discussed on this forum. Give it a break guys , its pathetic.

Did someone say the market was rational?

[RGR367]

Did someone say the market was rational?

No, just our irritability and/or being irrational at times really :p

[Beagle]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/company-news/united-loses-dollar1-billion-in-value-after-passenger-dragged-off-plane/ar-BBzJqMp?li=BBv6TfA&ocid=spartandhp

[Lola]

airnz do occasionally overbook flights in order to maximise revenue. North american carriers, especially those domiciled in the us use overbooking far more frequently. This particular situation is somewhat different to standard overbooking scenarios however.

Imo, the concern about the incident and associated discussion in this forum is valid.

well the board /management of air nz doesnt agree otherwise there would be a price sensitive annoucement. Agree? No you dont. Matter closed as far as im concerened.

Ps not a holder.

[Robomo]

well the board /management of air nz doesnt agree otherwise there would be a price sensitive annoucement. Agree? No you dont. Matter closed as far as im concerened.

Ps not a holder.

Feel free to go away.

[777]

well the board /management of air nz doesnt agree otherwise there would be a price sensitive annoucement. Agree? No you dont. Matter closed as far as im concerened.

Ps not a holder.

You stated "End" in post 10780. Just saying.

[Zaphod]

well the board /management of air nz doesnt agree otherwise there would be a price sensitive annoucement. Agree? No you dont. Matter closed as far as im concerened.

Ps not a holder.

The incident with United does not meet the criteria to trigger a price sensitive announcement for AirNZ, but I suspect you know that already despite the comment above.

[Joshuatree]

'Electric buses' could be flying us soon (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503458&objectid=11835558)

[Subway]

'Electric buses' could be flying us soon (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503458&objectid=11835558)

Same thing with Boom, I think aspects of both concepts (small scale super sonic planes) and electric planes will be incorporated into modern jets, but I sincerely doubt either concept will fly (literally and figuratively).

Its one thing to put batteries in a car, its another to put batteries in a plane and make compete with already efficient jets. If anything they will operate biofuels instead.

[Beagle]

Air New Zealand:
Weather conditions are expected to cause significant disruption to flight operations across the country today.
Due to the forecast storm conditions, Air New Zealand advises customers to anticipate delays and cancellations across its network.
The airline will monitor weather conditions and customers booked to travel are advised to consult the arrivals and departures information on the Air New Zealand website for information.
Air New Zealand is offering fare flexibility for customers no longer wishing to travel.
Due to the significant nature of this weather event and the likely disruption to the national roading network, Air New Zealand will not provide road transport options today for passengers whose travel is disrupted.

[theace]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11837619

Back to AirNZ only for a period for direct flights to the US mainland.

[TFA]

Whether the United debacle has any effect on Air is hard to say, but having recently flown on Star Alliance with AirNZ and United the comparative experiences between the two airlines is staggering.
Flying with AIR is such a pleasurable experience, there attention to detail to servicing the customer is incredible.
By comparison, flights with United always seemed very hostile and unfriendly, the events of this week summed up my feelings.

The safety record of Korean Airline, did used to be terrible. Studies were done on why this was the case and it boiled down to the subservient hierachial command asian culture. e.g. follow intructions, do not question your superiors. Investigations into various crashes showed examples where planes have e.g crashed by running out of fuel through series of issues, but ultimately because co pilots weren't able to assertively challenge pilots and communicate to them the gravity or relevance of problems and risks. Likewise pilots were too pilot to get adequate help from air traffic control when dealing with brash american air traffic controllers. As a result of these studies Korean Air engaged some american expert to fix the problem and by introducing more western style communication and leaderships styles and it worked! They now have a very good safety record.

[Zaphod]

Couple forced to give up seat on packed Air NZ flight for airline cabin crew

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11837919

For Lola :)

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11838937

[ratkin]

Couple forced to give up seat on packed Air NZ flight for airline cabin crew

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11837919

For Lola :)

200 compensation a bit stingy. Guess the going rate now will be 800 US

[Beagle]

Better than nothing which seems to be the going rate down-under
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11838975

[ratkin]

Better than nothing which seems to be the going rate down-under
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11838975

It isnt better than being on the flight that you have bought a seat for. Seems a terrible practice no matter how long it has existed.
The airlines need to end it, and stop overbooking.

[777]

It isnt better than being on the flight that you have bought a seat for. Seems a terrible practice no matter how long it has existed.
The airlines need to end it, and stop overbooking.

That would mean fare increases to cover the seats that were sold and then passengers did not turn up. The reasons for not fronting are numerous . The airlines only overbook to a point that these situations shouldn't occur but do get caught out occasionally. The offer of money usually solves the situation.

With this United incident and the AIR one, it wasn't the fact that it happened but how it was handled from the start until the end.

[iceman]

That would mean fare increases to cover the seats that were sold and then passengers did not turn up. The reasons for not fronting are numerous . The airlines only overbook to a point that these situations shouldn't occur but do get caught out occasionally. The offer of money usually solves the situation.

With this United incident and the AIR one, it wasn't the fact that it happened but how it was handled from the start until the end.

And with airfares specials very low, we will see more of this. I have just had to change a domestic airfare and could simply book a new ticket online for $59 whereas I phone call to Air NZ to change the old ticket would have cost $50 service fee. So my previous booking is still active and I have no intention of using it. Airlines simply have to overbook to take advantage of this situation but as you point out 777, how they do it is paramount to how the customers feel about it

[Baa_Baa]

There is a difference between overbooking passenger seats and then having to kick one/some off when they can't seat all the bookings ... and fully booking a flight with passengers and having to kick one/some off when they have to transport staff.

It seems both United and AIR were not overbooked per se, they were fully booked and then had to transport staff, probably unexpectedly, which took precedence over paying passengers.

[percy]

And with airfares specials very low, we will see more of this. I have just had to change a domestic airfare and could simply book a new ticket online for $59 whereas I phone call to Air NZ to change the old ticket would have cost $50 service fee. So my previous booking is still active and I have no intention of using it. Airlines simply have to overbook to take advantage of this situation but as you point out 777, how they do it is paramount to how the customers feel about it

Iceman,
What is your opinon of these $50 "service fess" to change a booking?
I would point out the rental car firm I use, let me transfer my deposit to another trip,if used within a year.
Why do airlines have to be so user unfriendly?
In my modest school library supply business, I tell librarians to deduct any book they don't want, from the invoice and post it back to me.If I give them what they want,I get what I want.

[Beagle]

It isnt better than being on the flight that you have bought a seat for. Seems a terrible practice no matter how long it has existed.
The airlines need to end it, and stop overbooking.

I know its been going on for a very long time in the U.S. but the case we saw with AIR N.Z. was with regard to the (presumably unscheduled due to unforeseen events, either weather or mechanical related), need to transport a crew to another point in their network. Aircraft are extremely complex with for example around 30,000 individual parts in a single Rolls Royce Trent engine powering one of AIR's dreamliners. You will get engineering issues from time to time, this is an inescapable reality of operating a fleet of highly complex aircraft. Another fact is the older the aircraft are, generally the less reliable they are which is why I won't fly in any of Jetstar's relics.
What separates airlines in terms of their standards is how they treat passengers when the inevitable unforeseen circumstances crop up. Its no surprise that Jetstar cop a lot of flak for their cavalier attitude.
From time to time AIR will cop some flak because one of their staff could have done better. One person was seriously inconvenienced so 171 people the next day wouldn't be. It could have been handled better. That happens from time to time when you employ a workforce of ~ 11,000 people. I have yet to see any genuine evidence of a systemic issue of overbooking with AIR just for the sake of maximizing their profit.


There is a difference between overbooking passenger seats and then having to kick one/some off when they can't seat all the bookings ... and fully booking a flight with passengers and having to kick one/some off when they have to transport staff.

It seems both United and AIR were not overbooked per se, they were fully booked and then had to transport staff, probably unexpectedly, which took precedence over paying passengers.
United do overbook on a regular basis but as you say in this instance that wasn't the case.
I have no issues with over-booking provided its handled in a professional way. I like Delta's approach where at the point of making your booking you are asked at what price you are prepared to be re-accommodated. You can tick boxes $200, $300, $400 or $500 or name your own price in a blank space. If you fill in $10,000 in the blank space you are very unlikely to ever be asked to give up your seat :)

[Robomo]

I suspect there is some double dipping by AIR and other airlines with bookings.

Low cost basic airfares are generally non-refundable so if you don't turn up you forfeit your fare, regardless of whether you cancel it or not. As iceman says why bother cancelling if there is absolutely no advantage to the customer? If the airline can sell a 'last minute' or 'standby' fare, then they have sold the seat twice.

High cost fully refundable fares have a premium built-in to cover the cost of a 'no show'. In the great majority of cases the 'no show' will simply be travelling on a later flight, still at that premium fare. The airline can still sell the seat to 'last minute' or 'standby' customers once the check-in time time has passed.

I almost always travel domestic AIR on a flexi-plus fare as my timetable can often change at the last minute. I need the flexibility so I pay more, but that's just the cost of business. If I turn up at the airport well before my booked flight I can transfer to an earlier flight if a seat is available at no extra cost. If the plane is fully booked then I just go on 'standby' and in most cases someone does not turn up so I get their seat and the airline can then sell my vacated seat on the later flight - profitable double selling of that seat if it's sold. Anecdotally from conversations with check-in staff the no-shows are split between high-paying business/govt people who lose nothing and people with a really cheap fare who simply cancelling - they don't get their money back so why bother?

I've flown more than a thousand sectors over the past 15 years and only been denied boarding once because of overbooking (might have been urgent dead-heading crew for all I know). Got on the next flight, 3 hours late and was well compensated.

Denied boarding is not a great problem in this part of the world. The airlines do quite well with being able to 'double sell' at least some no-show seats so I don't think they suffer financially from it.

Nevertheless, given what has happened with United it would be a good question to put to AIR at the next AGM what the financial impact is!

[iceman]

Iceman,
What is your opinon of these $50 "service fess" to change a booking?
I would point out the rental car firm I use, let me transfer my deposit to another trip,if used within a year.
Why do airlines have to be so user unfriendly?
In my modest school library supply business, I tell librarians to deduct any book they don't want, from the invoice and post it back to me.If I give them what they want,I get what I want.

I find them quite excessive Percy but I do understand that they are all part of the business of super low airfares. I hardly ever book anything other than fully-flexi tickets due to the nature of my travel being such that they regularly change at short notice. This time I didn't. The downside for the airlines themselves from these high service fees is that the incentive for people to cancel tickets they don't intend to use is largely gone and the airlines respond by overbookings !!

[Zaphod]

Late last year Air NZ trialled an invitation only domestic flexible travel booking service that allowed you to change flights regardless of the fare class booked, all for a one-off membership fee. This was very useful for seat-only fares which traditionally couldn't be changed without paying more in change fees than the fare was worth, however I haven't heard whether the system is going to be formally launched subsequent to this trial.

[RTFQ]

Changing the subject slightly. Talked to an engineer recently and he advised that airlines are now using 3D printers to manufacture parts. Rather than keep a large parts inventory all that is required is an IP approval, software loaded into machine and presto a part is made. This includes complex engine parts. Times are a changing.

[Beagle]

Changing the subject slightly. Talked to an engineer recently and he advised that airlines are now using 3D printers to manufacture parts. Rather than keep a large parts inventory all that is required is an IP approval, software loaded into machine and presto a part is made. This includes complex engine parts. Times are a changing.

Breath of fresh AIR, yes we need a topic change. Its amazing this whole 3D printer thing and I know AIR are using them now for parts and saves a lot on logistical problems too in terms of production time and shipping. Russians even 3D printing entire low cost homes with a 3D printer in about 24 hours now for only $10K. Maybe this is a way to ease Auckland's accommodation crisis ?
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=house+buildiung+using+a+3d+printer&view=detail&mid=E75582AFA15A089E02C4E75582AFA15A089E02C4&FORM=VIRE

[RTFQ]

From a TA perspective a tri-angle has formed and breakout eminent, hopefully up. Historically, last 5 yrs Oct to Apr has seen an up tick then a decline.

[bull....]

Still look like they could be on track for a very respectable year.

[Traderx]

My personal barometer of Air NZ's pricing power/performance is the HLZ-WLG sector. Traditionally it was priced on sale at $65 (seat only), this dropped to $55 in the last 12 months as fuel prices declined, it is now up to $69 in the most recent sale ending yesterday, therefore I am fairly bullish on Air NZ's core domestic business :-)

[workingdad]

My personal barometer of Air NZ's pricing power/performance is the HLZ-WLG sector. Traditionally it was priced on sale at $65 (seat only), this dropped to $55 in the last 12 months as fuel prices declined, it is now up to $69 in the most recent sale ending yesterday, therefore I am fairly bullish on Air NZ's core domestic business :-)

Further to this.....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91437455/hamilton-airport-welcomes-increased-passenger-numbers

[sb9]

Hope some big player can break that big menacing wall at 2.50....

[babymonster]

Unfortunately, no. It's a 52-week high at 2.495. Hopefully next week

[Raz]

Unfortunately, no. It's a 52-week high at 2.495. Hopefully next week

limits to growth..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11841946

[Beagle]

Those pay rates don't look very good compared to what senior AIR pilots are earning. Then there's living in Dubai...
Emirates got their own growth limiting factors too http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11841478
Happy holder, well managed, low PE, high fully imputed dividend yield...what's not to like.

[Meextr]

I always think this 3D printing is blown out of proportion. Realistically how many parts can be made on a 3D printer that meet the strength and quality standards required for an airplane?

[Baa_Baa]

I always think this 3D printing is blown out of proportion. Realistically how many parts can be made on a 3D printer that meet the strength and quality standards required for an airplane?

The term '3D Printer' is really oblique, even confusing using the reference to a 'printer' that most will typically associate with 2D paper printing.

Actually 3D printing is a fabrication technology, a device that can create, or build objects with extremely precise parameters from a variety of input materials, potentially at the scale required for manufacturing.

Also one has to look into the array of materials that can be used in fabricating '3D' objects. Some materials for example enable direct metal laser sintering, that can quite realistically be used in fabricating or manufacturing components for aircraft engineering, for example titanium, or even ceramics, and may already be being used.

It's an amazing world. Even my teenage kids have 3D printers at school, they design objects on the computer and hey presto, it's 'printed' out into a real life fabrication that they bring home and proudly display to their parents who wonder at the marvels of modern science but have no knowledge or technology required to do it themselves.

[Zaphod]

I always think this 3D printing is blown out of proportion. Realistically how many parts can be made on a 3D printer that meet the strength and quality standards required for an airplane?

Additive printing (or colloquially, 3D Printing) has certainly advanced rapidly over the last decade, and has certainly garnered huge amounts of press, but the reality is that at this juncture it's primarily suited to prototyping, and the production of non-structural components. Even as material strength has improved, regulatory issues now loom over it's use in various industries, especially the risk-adverse aviation industry.

The ability to print a spare part on demand for an aircraft will certainly revolutionise the industry. It's coming, but I think we are still quite a few years away from that point.

[Joshuatree]

I always think this 3D printing is blown out of proportion. Realistically how many parts can be made on a 3D printer that meet the strength and quality standards required for an airplane?

Just saw this a couple of days ago Meextr; its hard to keep up with the pace of change.And i heard an interview re robots taking over all the mundane jobs and many others too, soon including automated taxis and trucks and cars!. Even heard of a sports result article on a game of baseball (i think) written by a bot and a musical score for a show at westend that was written by a bot; hell they can be creative too:eek2:

3-D printed titanium to shave millions in Boeing Dreamliner costs


http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20170410&t=2&i=1180120236&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXMPED391AX
Visitors take pictures of a model of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner during Japan Aerospace 2016 air show in Tokyo, Japan, October 12, 2016.REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon


By Alwyn Scott (http://www.reuters.com/journalists/alwyn-scott) | SEATTLE

Boeing Co hired Norsk Titanium AS to print the first structural titanium parts for its 787 Dreamliner, the Norwegian 3-D printing company said on Monday, paving the way to cost savings of $2 million to $3 million for each plane.

The contract is a major step in Boeing's effort to cut the cost of its barely profitable 787 and a sign of growing industrial acceptance of the durability of 3-D printed metal parts, allowing them to replace pieces made with more expensive traditional manufacturing in demanding aerospace applications.

Strong, lightweight titanium alloy is seven times more costly than aluminum, and accounts for about $17 million of the cost of a $265 million Dreamliner, industry sources say.

Boeing has been trying to reduce titanium costs on the 787, which requires more of the metal than other models because of its carbon-fiber composite fuselage and wings. Titanium also is used extensively on Airbus Group SE's rival A350 jet.

"This means $2 million to $3 million in savings for each Dreamliner, at least," starting in 2018 when many more parts are being printed, Chip Yates, Norsk Titanium's vice president of marketing, said in a telephone interview.

Boeing declined to comment on the estimate but said Norsk's technology would help reduce costs.
The aircraft maker in February said it had hired privately held Oxford Performance Materials to print plastic parts for its Starliner spacecraft.

Norsk worked with Boeing for more than a year to design four 787 parts and obtain Federal Aviation Administration certification for them, Yates said.

Norsk expects the U.S. regulatory agency will approve the material properties and production process for the parts later this year, which would "open up the floodgates" and allow Norsk to print thousands of different parts for each Dreamliner, without each part requiring separate FAA approval, Yates said.

"You're talking about tons, literally," on the 787 that would be printed instead of made with traditional, expensive forging and machining, he said.

General Electric Co is already printing metal fuel nozzles for a line of new aircraft engines. But Norsk and Boeing said the titanium parts are the first printed structural components designed to bear the stress of an airframe in flight.

Norsk said that initially it will print in Norway, but is building up a 67,000-square-foot (6,220-square-meter) facility in Plattsburgh in upstate New York, where it aims to have nine printers running by year-end.

[Meextr]

Thanks for that insight guys. I just imagined 3D printers manufacturing out of plastics.

[RTFQ]

I always think this 3D printing is blown out of proportion. Realistically how many parts can be made on a 3D printer that meet the strength and quality standards required for an airplane?
Most of ROCKET LABS space rocket motor componentry is made using 3D printing. No machining required, this is why their satellite launches will cost significantly less than NASA.

[QOH]

Most of ROCKET LABS space rocket motor componentry is made using 3D printing. No machining required, this is why their satellite launches will cost significantly less than NASA.
What an amazing NZ success story Rocket Labs is. Hasn't heard of then until I saw their story at MOTAT.

[RTFQ]

What an amazing NZ success story Rocket Labs is. Hasn't heard of then until I saw their story at MOTAT.

Hi QOH, is your user name from the old "Q" code used in the Morse code days?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q_code

[Zaphod]

Thanks for that insight guys. I just imagined 3D printers manufacturing out of plastics.

Plastics, metal, ceramic, all the way through to biological tissue.

The technology has been evolving since the early 1980's.

[Zaphod]

3-D printed titanium to shave millions in Boeing Dreamliner costs

Nice find.

Boeing have been working on this for several years and it's good to see this finally coming to fruition.

The gas turbine nozzles mentioned in the article that GE produce are a relatively complicated shape, thin, required to withstand high temperatures and are consequently difficult to machine conventionally. The parts outlined above - which still have yet to be formally publicly identified - represent quite a step change. The devil of course will be in the detail of Boeing's definition of structural and load bearing, which at this point is likely to be very minor.

[martinchnz1]

Looks like Air NZ is the number one business in Aussie...

http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/air-new-zealand-takes-top-spot-on-australian-corporate-reputation-index-20170424-gvr550

[Beagle]

Looks like Air NZ is the number one business in Aussie...

http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/air-new-zealand-takes-top-spot-on-australian-corporate-reputation-index-20170424-gvr550

Isn't that nice !

[sb9]

2.50 wall gone just like that....

[Beagle]

Based on $500m before tax and full 28% tax = $360m = 32 cps earnings this year. At $2.50 that puts the shares on a FY17 PE of just 7.8 which is considerably lower than QAN and other regional competitors. Management seemed confident at the conference call in conjunction with their half year report in February 2017 that yields look better going forward and I would say they have a better idea than any of the analysts or commentators on here including me.
They are coming towards the latter part of their fleet replacement program and out on my walk today I got to thinking there is definitely some scope for special divvies in the medium term, (my thinking is not quite in line with Mod's thinking but there is definitely potential there probably in FY20 and FY21) as well as the expected 20 cps fully imputed giving them a gross dividend yield of (20 / 0.72) / 250 = 11.1%.

I got to thinking this is still a very good hold. Technically, the SP looks to continue to be in a good solid recovery from October 2016. Trading well above MA100 and MA 200. Well managed companies on very undemanding multiples with a gross dividend yield like that are not exactly in over abundance on the NZX. Disc: Bought more this morning. Not expecting quick gains, just a good long term hold for really solid dividend yield.

[troyvdh]

What bugs me about AIR is that they serve you chlorinated tap water...which smells and tastes awful....and I have flown on a few airlines.

[Beagle]

What bugs me about AIR is that they serve you chlorinated tap water...which smells and tastes awful....and I have flown on a few airlines.

Only ever seen them pour water from bottled sources or the little pre-packaged water. I've never been served chlorinated water on AIR and never had occasion to be disappointed with the water quality and I'm extremely fussy when it comes to the quality of the water I drink. I'll keep an eye out tomorrow, flying Auck - Wellington return to the SUM annual meeting, maybe things have changed very recently but I'd be very surprised if they had.

[troyvdh]

I know this is trivial...in the past few years I have flown 4-5 times over seas..Hawaii/Houston/Oz...every time water came in cups...again I know this is trivial...but..

[BlackPeter]

I know this is trivial...in the past few years I have flown 4-5 times over seas..Hawaii/Houston/Oz...every time water came in cups...again I know this is trivial...but..

... and you are right ... I remember as well getting chlorinated water on AIR long haul flights (i.e. when you really need the water to stay hydrated). Not so sure though, whether they still do that ... I now always take an empty water bottle with me and fill it at the airport (after the security check). I know - sad, but I resist to pay $5 or more for a simple bottle of water at the airport ...

[babymonster]

March stats is out.. what do you guys think?

[777]

Water from bottles is one thing but all airlines pick up water from all ports of call and you get what is there. So water differences between airlines is imagination.

[Joshuatree]

I just wear my recycling suit, don't even have to carry a bottle.
Stillsuit | Dune | Fandom powered by Wikia (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjx4eOplMPTAhXDNJQKHUJWCcoQFggnMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdune.wikia.com%2Fwiki%2FStillsuit&usg=AFQjCNEjIqY8I1IMWCZxVDABmMF_DQWXJA)

[Joshuatree]

Looks like things are slowing down Quite a drop on shorthaul and long haul Rev compared with last year although numbers were higher?

[Beagle]

Based on $500m before tax and full 28% tax = $360m = 32 cps earnings this year. At $2.50 that puts the shares on a FY17 PE of just 7.8 which is considerably lower than QAN and other regional competitors. Management seemed confident at the conference call in conjunction with their half year report in February 2017 that yields look better going forward and I would say they have a better idea than any of the analysts or commentators on here including me.
They are coming towards the latter part of their fleet replacement program and out on my walk today I got to thinking there is definitely some scope for special divvies in the medium term, (my thinking is not quite in line with Mod's thinking but there is definitely potential there probably in FY20 and FY21) as well as the expected 20 cps fully imputed giving them a gross dividend yield of (20 / 0.72) / 250 = 11.1%.

I got to thinking this is still a very good hold. Technically, the SP looks to continue to be in a good solid recovery from October 2016. Trading well above MA100 and MA 200. Well managed companies on very undemanding multiples with a gross dividend yield like that are not exactly in over abundance on the NZX. Disc: Bought more this morning. Not expecting quick gains, just a good long term hold for really solid dividend yield.

Posted 26 April 2017. Market likes the operating stat's and I am not surprised. Sometimes the good news is buried deep inside the detail and such is the case with yesterday's operating stat's.
Excerpt: Group wide yields for the year to date have deceased 6.6% on the same period last year. Last month the YTD yield for the eight month period YTD had fallen 7.3%.

Think about how much yields must have improved in the single month of March 2017 to move the year to date needle from 7.3% to 6.6% and therein lies the good news as indicated by management's confidence at the recent conference call that yields had bottomed out.

By the way - AIR served Kiwi Blue still spring water on both legs of AKL to Wellington return flight yesterday from a 1.5 liter bottle, exactly the same nice pure clean non floriated spring water I buy from the supermarket. I can't comment on what water their overseas catering suppliers supply from overseas airports.

[couta1]

Looks like the Bollinger Band squeeze is upwards this time, won't be buying back in at current price or higher, will wait and see how the price goes over the next couple of months. Whole market looks toppy to me, just waiting for a catalyst to send it into a correction. I see value still in a couple of the power companies which look oversold and Sum of course.

[Beagle]

Jet "star" rated worst airline in the world :lol:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/92014687/jetstar-disputes-worst-airline-tag-after-lastplace-finish-in-consumer-survey

[percy]

I always fly JetStar,mainly because I had difficulty using AIR's booking site originally.
Their flight times suit me just fine.
I like their aircraft,and their service.
When comparing the cost of flights they are the cheapest.
I only book when they have specials.
Our recent flight from ChCh to Auckland return, with baggage and meal,for the wife and I was a total of $392,and that was in the school holidays.

[Beagle]

Each to their own Percy, some people have got it ingrained in their system to live as frugally as possible despite being very comfortably well off. Far be it from me to judge but quite obviously from the survey above you get what you pay for which with Jetstar isn't much. Personally speaking I have found their service appalling, seating shockingly tight, staff attitude generally sour and unhelpful, and their reliability and punctuality to be of a completely unacceptable standard for business purposes. Spoke with the CEO of a leading N.Z. boat manufacturing company in Napier some months back who flies on business far more often than I and he confirmed their service standards in and out of Napier have made them completely unacceptable as a business travel provider.
Okay for leisure if you are flexible but travel insurance is compulsory !
Quite apart from that coming into Wellington yesterday I felt quite calm knowing its a short runway but also knowing the Captain would have had many thousands of hours real flight experience coming up through the flight school ranks, not predominantly trained on a simulator. Flights to and from Wellington yesterday $69 down, (free using my airpoints) $149 back inclusive of helpful service, decent legroom, free biscuit and coffee and non fluoridated spring water.
I never fly Jetstar any more and never will and I believe in supporting my own Kiwi owned companies whenever possible not feeding profits to greedy foreign owners with little interest in providing a quality service.

[Joshuatree]

I always fly JetStar,mainly because I had difficulty using AIR's booking site originally.
Their flight times suit me just fine.
I like their aircraft,and their service.
When comparing the cost of flights they are the cheapest.
I only book when they have specials.
Our recent flight from ChCh to Auckland return, with baggage and meal,for the wife and I was a total of $392,and that was in the school holidays.

Thanks percy, great to get actual first hand experience from an actual user and not one sided biased propaganda.

[percy]

As I am a happy JetStar flier, I have just looked at return flights ChCh to Auckland, for a one day book buying trip,on Tuesday 11th July.
AIR..7am to Auckland.$85..Return 4pm $69. 5pm $85.So times that suit me...........$154
Jet Star.6.30 am to Auckland $45.Return 4.05pm $49...6.05 pm $45.....................$94.
The $60 saved would just about pay for my USave rental car for the day.
But wait there's more.
If I get to ChCh airport before 6.30 am, I get to find a park in a FREE parking space, only 5 to 8 minutes walk from the terminal.

[Beagle]

LOL yeah it must be "fake news" seeing as Jetstar themselves are disputing it...all those thousands of people must have colluded to conspire against Jetstar. http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/92014687/jetstar-disputes-worst-airline-tag-after-lastplace-finish-in-consumer-survey

[percy]

Thanks percy, great to get actual first hand experience from an actual user and not one sided biased propaganda.

I don't fly very often,but have no complaints with JetStar's service..

[hardt]

On the two occasions I have been unable to find a seat with AIR NZ - I had no other option but to book with Jet Star, Both flights were cancelled and on both occasions we were offered a bus ride, took a full refund and booked a flight to PNTH with AIR NZ later that day... got to be a real trooper to work for Jet Star customer services.

You get what you pay for is all I can say.

[Beagle]

On the two occasions I have been unable to find a seat with AIR NZ - I had no other option but to book with Jet Star, Both flights were cancelled and on both occasions we were offered a bus ride, took a full refund and booked a flight to PNTH with AIR NZ later that day... got to be a real trooper to work for Jet Star customer services.

You get what you pay for is all I can say.

Your experience is very common and I couldn't agree more. Stuff running their own survey as a part of that link I posted earlier. 64% of 3,300 voters so far have voted that Jetstar is always a disappointment, note the choice of the word "Always"

Imagine what percentage that vote would have been if the question was worded "Is Jetstar sometimes a disappointment" !

[percy]

Your experience is very common and I couldn't agree more. Stuff running their own survey as a part of that link I posted earlier. 64% of 3,300 voters so far have voted that Jetstar is always a disappointment, note the choice of the word "Always"

Imagine what percentage that vote would have been if the question was worded Is Jetstar sometimes a disappointment !

They never asked me.!
Always very happy.!

[Beagle]

They never asked me.!
Always very happy.!

Good for you Percy. My experience with them when on business twice to Napier was so appalling it was a joke.
First time they cancelled due to engineering issues but offered me a later flight that day, (which meant I couldn't make that meeting).
After waiting 45 minutes on hold at their foreign staffed call center I spent another 15 minutes trying to explain to the call center lady with such a thick accent that I couldn't communicate with her that because their later outgoing flight was useless to me the return leg of the day trip journey was also useless.
They simply didn't / couldn't / wouldn't understand and offered me a later flight home, which was also useless as I hadn't left in the first place.
Honestly it was a joke and not only ruined my day but wasted another hour of valuable time. All they would refund, (and it took them 3 weeks to do it was the cost of the outgoing leg of the journey).

Same thing happened the second time I tried flying down there, this time they cancelled the flight just two minutes before final boarding call due to "staff issues" In other words one of their staff simply didn't turn up for their shift and at the last minute they have zero back up crew for regional flights.
I didn't even bother wasting another hour of my time trying to get the partial refund.

All the scathing articles in the press over such a long period of time about the way they treat their passengers cannot all be fake news. The survey results both the overseas one and the local stuff one speak for themselves.

[weasel]

They never asked me.!
Always very happy.!

Stuff, as in the website - not stAff.

Vote away!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/92014687/jetstar-disputes-worst-airline-tag-after-lastplace-finish-in-consumer-survey

[workingdad]

Well the AIR share price sure is performing well, glad I kept half the shares I had when we sold some to purchase a car.

The thread is usually quieter while the SP is performing well - not unlike some others I guess but congrats to those that had the bottle to buy in when in the 1.70 range, hard to imagine a better performing stock over the last few months including divvy some great gains.

The stats are great and above expectations of the terrible decline some were predicting. It doesn't have to be a record year to be a solid investment and I have said this a few times, they are in the business of flying people around, immigration and tourism are the highest ever and most of AIRs profit is domestic.

Jetstar may have cheaper prices percy but one has to ask, if they are so good why are they still having to discount so heavily to fill their planes? They have been in the NZ market for a while now and not really performing that well, I have flown them on occasion when required and have had mixed experiences like many others. AIR is not perfect but its a well managed airline with considerably less issues and better service than its competitors and that's the general public talking not just shareholders.

Each to their own, happy holder, happy Koru member and no regrets cashing some in last month.

[percy]

Well the AIR share price sure is performing well, glad I kept half the shares I had when we sold some to purchase a car.

The thread is usually quieter while the SP is performing well - not unlike some others I guess but congrats to those that had the bottle to buy in when in the 1.70 range, hard to imagine a better performing stock over the last few months including divvy some great gains.

The stats are great and above expectations of the terrible decline some were predicting. It doesn't have to be a record year to be a solid investment and I have said this a few times, they are in the business of flying people around, immigration and tourism are the highest ever and most of AIRs profit is domestic.

Jetstar may have cheaper prices percy but one has to ask, if they are so good why are they still having to discount so heavily to fill their planes? They have been in the NZ market for a while now and not really performing that well, I have flown them on occasion when required and have had mixed experiences like many others. AIR is not perfect but its a well managed airline with considerably less issues and better service than its competitors and that's the general public talking not just shareholders.

Each to their own, happy holder, happy Koru member and no regrets cashing some in last month.

I stated I went with JetStar as I had trouble booking on AIR's site,and found my way around JetStar's OK.
I usually book months in advance,as I know when I will be buying books,or taking holidays,so I can take advantage of their cheap prices.Their timetable works for me.
I have nothing against AIR,but I have had no reason not to fly JetStar.The Airbus is a nice plane,the seats are comfortable,the service has been reliable and good.
I will also point out I do very little flying.Maybe our next holiday, we will fly to Sydney with Emirates, and come home from Gold Coast, with whoever offers a direct flight at a reasonable price.

[JeremyALD]

Might be a dumb question but is there a reason Jetstar don't fly more in New Zealand and fight more for market share given it's so profitable?

[hardt]

Might be a dumb question but is there a reason Jetstar don't fly more in New Zealand and fight more for market share given it's so profitable?

Where did you hear it's so profitable?

They lose money if a plane flies under 60% capacity, I think they cancel flights sometimes just to avoid the loss.

[Mickey]

While I don't fly Jetstar myself - we do need them here to provide some competition. My wife had to fly down to Invercargill at short notice over Easter to care for a parent who was coming out of hospital. I knew it was going to be expensive booking a flight with AIR over Easter a few days before Good Friday - but $906 from Wellington to Invercargill return for 1 person is pretty steep in anyone's language. I'm sure I wouldn't have had to pay that if Jetstar was flying into Invercargill.

Discl. sold all my AIR a week ago (not because of the above) to build up my cash reserve as I think the NZX is due for a correction.......just a hunch

[Joshuatree]

So true re needing the comp Mickey. I had everything crossed that Jetstar would choose Tauranga as a route but not to be.Our airport was considered and I'm surmising Jetstar asked our city/regional council what incentives thy could offer(along with all the stats on passengers etc they would have researched). Unfortunately not to be at this point but hopefully soon as TGA is arguably the 4th biggest city now and growing stupidfast.

[Zaphod]

So true re needing the comp Mickey. I had everything crossed that Jetstar would choose Tauranga as a route but not to be.Our airport was considered and I'm surmising Jetstar asked our city/regional council what incentives thy could offer(along with all the stats on passengers etc they would have researched). Unfortunately not to be at this point but hopefully soon as TGA is arguably the 4th biggest city now and growing stupidfast.

With passenger numbers of less the 300K per annum, Tauranga ranks as the 11th busiest just behind Hamilton at 10th. That is the core issue. The passenger numbers are however growing quickly, so JQ will no doubt service the airport at some point in the near future once further aircraft become available.

[stoploss]

So true re needing the comp Mickey. I had everything crossed that Jetstar would choose Tauranga as a route but not to be.Our airport was considered and I'm surmising Jetstar asked our city/regional council what incentives thy could offer(along with all the stats on passengers etc they would have researched). Unfortunately not to be at this point but hopefully soon as TGA is arguably the 4th biggest city now and growing stupidfast.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/88229057/Tale-of-two-cities-Tauranga-overtakes-Dunedin-to-become-countrys-fifth-biggest-city

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-kangaroo-fares-qatar-laptop-threat-new-a380-services-and-more-ng-202343
Extract of unrestricted NBR article
Qatar threatens to cut Auckland flights
Qatar Airways says it will consider cutting flights to New Zealand if the government implements plans to ban laptops on flights originating from the Middle East. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)*is assessing whether it will follow the US and the UK in stopping large electronic devices being taken on board. Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar al-Baker says a decision would need to be made on the viability of continuing flights from Doha*to Auckland that*only started on February 6 this year.
"It's performing well but you know if we are imposed with bans which would affect our traffic then we will have to reconsider," Mr al-Baker is reported as saying. "It is a very expensive route for us to operate." The CAA has not confirmed if or when a decision would be made.

Emphasis added.
My thoughts. N.Z. is already well served on Middle Eastern and European routes by a variety of quality carriers.
Why should people travelling to / from N.Z. be exposed to the risk of laptop bomb terrorism from that part of the world just because Mr al-baker thinks we should ?
If he's complaining about the cost to service the route that's his problem. I hope CAA puts safety first ahead of the profit driven motive of a foreign owned airline.

[777]

Or put another way if this restriction becomes world wide then what affect will that have on total travel. I for one would not want my laptop in the hold as that opens up the chance of it " going missing" down route.

Business people would not want all their company data "not on their person" so may well reduce their travel and look at other ways of doing business.

Anyone with ill intent will simply board in a port that has no restriction so it will have to be extended everywhere.

AIR will be affected as well.

And CAA will simply do what the USA will tell them.

[Beagle]

Smart phones are becoming increasingly powerful. If this spreads to become a world-wide issue business people will simply have to get used to making do with their phone and / or taking / transmitting their necessary data by other means. Safety first and I am fine with CAA following best and safest worldwide practice. Mr al-baker is apparently well known in aviation and government circles for his confrontational / outspoken approach in regard to putting his company agenda right "out there". As far as I am concerned he and his airline are most welcome to do business elsewhere if he doesn't N.Z. CAA rules.

[BlackPeter]

Why should people travelling to / from N.Z. be exposed to the risk of laptop bomb terrorism from that part of the world just because Mr al-baker thinks we should ?

Roger, I think you are a bit overdoing your lobbying efforts in order to curtail AIR's competitors.

The ban for excluding large electronic devices based on region of origin is ridiculous ... If they are dangerous, than they need to be banned for any flights no matter where they are coming from, or do you think that a terrorist would not be able to transport his/her Laptop bomb first into a region deemed as safe and enter the plane there?

This ban is just one of Trump's ideas to protect US airlines ... do we really need to follow all of his idiocies ... ?

[Beagle]

Yes, conceded that if they are going to ban them then obviously it has to be a world-wide thing to be effective. Apparently the CIA have credible evidence of the ability of terror organizations to develop powerful laptop bombs but it is interesting to note that some Middle East airlines have had to reduce their flights into the U.S. by as much as 20% since Trump's immigration enunciations so perhaps your viewpoint has some validity especially because of course we all know that the alleged credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq turned out to be at best "unable to be verified".

Disc: Mr Al-baker's attitude on other aviation matters to N.Z. has ruffled my fur in the past...I'll leave the CAA to make their own decision.

[Robomo]

Roger, I think you are a bit overdoing your lobbying efforts in order to curtail AIR's competitors.

The ban for excluding large electronic devices based on region of origin is ridiculous ... If they are dangerous, than they need to be banned for any flights no matter where they are coming from, or do you think that a terrorist would not be able to transport his/her Laptop bomb first into a region deemed as safe and enter the plane there?

This ban is just one of Trump's ideas to protect US airlines ... do we really need to follow all of his idiocies ... ?

If laptops are so dangerous then it makes no difference if they are in the hold or in the cabin. If President Trump's logic is correct (Trump & Logic????) then laptops will be banned completely regardless of being in the cabin or hold. Interestingly the most recent explosive devices on planes have been planted by ground staff, not passengers.

I recently had to go airside at one of our International airports, onto the tarmac engineering area. Security pass no problem (Driver's licence for ID), no search of my backpack or the vehicle I was in. It would have been incredibly easy to do a lot of damage, as the Company rep who was with me acknowledged.

Drones will be next big problem, it would not be difficult to steer one into the path of a plane at takeoff. Who needs a high-tech laptop device when a low-tech drone or ground staff will do?

[dobby41]

Your experience is very common and I couldn't agree more. Stuff running their own survey as a part of that link I posted earlier. 64% of 3,300 voters so far have voted that Jetstar is always a disappointment, note the choice of the word "Always"

Imagine what percentage that vote would have been if the question was worded "Is Jetstar sometimes a disappointment" !

They only had 2 options for the vote so highlighting 'always' is totally irrelevant.
So the question was really - does Jetstar deserve to be called the worst - yes or no.
Stuff is very good at not having enough options in their little surveys.

[dobby41]

Yes, conceded that if they are going to ban them then obviously it has to be a world-wide thing to be effective. Apparently the CIA have credible evidence of the ability of terror organizations to develop powerful laptop bombs but it is interesting to note that some Middle East airlines have had to reduce their flights into the U.S. by as much as 20% since Trump's immigration enunciations so perhaps your viewpoint has some validity especially because of course we all know that the alleged credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq turned out to be at best "unable to be verified".


So that siad that it is a good idea to ban devices but isn't?
I would have thought that putting the device in the cargo and triggering it via your cell phone (not in normal cell mode for clarification) would be the way to go.
So just ban all devices.
People should be bare footed also and maybe they should wear hospital smocks.

I want my device to watch the video I want to watch - not what they have avaliable.
Doing a 17hr flight with Qatar mid this year and won't be happy if I can't take my tablet.

[dobby41]

as TGA is arguably the 4th biggest city now and growing stupidfast.

Only in some alternate reality.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for the stuff article , stop loss and yes was way out there dobby i stand well corrected and was sloppy there. Have looked around bit at statistics nz and could only come up 2013 stats tauranga 114,789 and Hamilton 146,612 but whether that is territorial or city numbers, i give up.Anyone with a source and number for 2016 for Hamilton city would be appreciated. And it seems Hamilton is growing faster 1.5% to Tga's 1.4%. Still comp is good and i hope Jetstar come here asap.

[dobby41]

Thanks for the stuff article , stop loss and yes was way out there dobby i stand well corrected and was sloppy there. Have looked around bit at statistics nz and could only come up 2013 stats tauranga 114,789 and Hamilton 146,612 but whether that is territorial or city numbers, i give up.Anyone with a source and number for 2016 for Hamilton city would be appreciated. And it seems Hamilton is growing faster 1.5% to Tga's 1.4%. Still comp is good and i hope Jetstar come here asap.

For Hamilton that is city - the territory is Waikato which are different numbers.
When Stats NZ say City they really mean the City.
In 2013 Waipa was 46668
and Waikato was 63378
The total Waikato region was 403638
Try the map here
http://www.stats.govt.nz/StatsMaps/Home/Maps/2013-census-quickstats-about-a-place-map.aspx?viewer=viewer_config_2013_Live.txt&webmap=map_config.txt&layerId=2&featureId=016

[sb9]

Posted 26 April 2017. Market likes the operating stat's and I am not surprised. Sometimes the good news is buried deep inside the detail and such is the case with yesterday's operating stat's.
Excerpt: Group wide yields for the year to date have deceased 6.6% on the same period last year. Last month the YTD yield for the eight month period YTD had fallen 7.3%.

Think about how much yields must have improved in the single month of March 2017 to move the year to date needle from 7.3% to 6.6% and therein lies the good news as indicated by management's confidence at the recent conference call that yields had bottomed out.

Couldn't agree more, up another 4 cents so far today.

[couta1]

Couldn't agree more, up another 4 cents so far today. Great company, but I don't see value at current prices. I try and avoid buying stocks these days when i consider they are either fully priced or overpriced, and IMO Air is fully priced at $2.50.

[Beagle]

Couldn't agree more, up another 4 cents so far today.

Up 9 cents since those monthly stat's came out. Its nice to be in a position of knowledge to be able to interpret them correctly without having to wait for analysts to confirm them. QAN pushing on A$4.30 today. AIR still very good value relative to other regional airlines. Happy holder.

[IAK]

What.... Had to check that it wasn't 1 April. The Air New Zealand Board is appointing former Prime Minister John Key as a Director effective from September 1.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/300465

[Beagle]

AIR
01/05/2017 16:15
DIRECTOR
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1615 HRS Air New Zealand Limited (NS)

DIRECTOR: AIR: RT HON JOHN KEY JOINING THE BOARD OF AIR NEW ZEALAND


1 May 2017
RT HON JOHN KEY JOINING THE BOARD OF AIR NEW ZEALAND

The Air New Zealand Board is appointing former Prime Minister John Key as a
Director effective from September 1.

Chairman Tony Carter says the Board has been actively searching for a
Director with strong international business experience and a deep knowledge
of tourism for around a year.

"Air New Zealand is one of the world's best airlines and the growth of its
international operations around the Pacific Rim is an area of strong focus.
The Board identified last year that the addition of a Director with
international experience would be important to supporting the Chief Executive
Officer and his Executive team as they take our award-winning airline into
the future. We also identified that the ideal candidate would have a strong
empathy for the tourism industry," Mr Carter says.

"When John Key announced he was stepping down as Prime Minister and moving to
a new phase of life outside of politics, it became a priority for the Board
to try and secure his services as a Director. John will bring extensive
international commercial experience, outstanding leadership skills, global
perspective and a keen understanding of the tourism sector gained during the
years he was Tourism Minister as well as Prime Minister of New Zealand."

Mr Key says he is delighted to have been approached by the Air New Zealand
Board to join it as a Director.

"Air New Zealand is an incredible company that has significant opportunities
ahead of it and I look forward to working with the Board, Chief Executive
Officer and his Executive team to see it fulfil its potential," Mr Key says.

Air New Zealand is also announcing that its longest serving Director Paul
Bingham will be retiring at the Annual Shareholders' Meeting in September.


Excellent appointment in my view. Not usually a fan of ex politicians being appointed to boards of companies but happy to make an exception in this case.

[macduffy]

Agreed, Roger. And plenty of other NZ companies that could do with JK around their board tables!

[Meextr]

Will AIR now be the official airline for bringing in the immigrants?

[pierre]

Agreed, Roger. And plenty of other NZ companies that could do with JK around their board tables!

Right on that the Right Hon JK has joined the board of Air NZ - a great decision. He will be an incredibly valuable addition to the team - can't think of anyone better.

[Beagle]

I really liked what JK had to say about the company. He has plenty of money and doesn't need to work for anyone so if the following statement and accepting the invitation to join the board isn't an endorsement of the caliber of the company I don't know what would be better !

Air New Zealand is an incredible company that has significant opportunities
ahead of it and I look forward to working with the Board, Chief Executive
Officer and his Executive team to see it fulfil its potential," Mr Key says.

[Xerof]

Should now reclaim $3++ mark, as it's just completed an INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation.
IMO
DYOR

I won't talk too much about the previous H&S formation breakdown at $2.75 as some chose to argue the point, saying it's TA voodoo

AIR have stolen a march getting Key on their board - good work team

[Raz]

AIR
01/05/2017 16:15
DIRECTOR
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1615 HRS Air New Zealand Limited (NS)

DIRECTOR: AIR: RT HON JOHN KEY JOINING THE BOARD OF AIR NEW ZEALAND



Excellent appointment in my view. Not usually a fan of ex politicians being appointed to boards of companies but happy to make an exception in this case.

Yes... personally did not rate him as pm however his connections should be useful to AIR. Smart move.

[winner69]

Should now reclaim $3++ mark, as it's just completed an INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation.
IMO
DYOR

I won't talk too much about the previous H&S formation breakdown at $2.75 as some chose to argue the point, saying it's TA voodoo

AIR have stolen a march getting Key on their board - good work team

Do H&S patterns form pony tails .......now Johnny on board have to don't they?

[Baa_Baa]

I won't talk too much about the previous H&S formation breakdown at $2.75 as some chose to argue the point, saying it's TA voodoo

Even the besotted FA's have turned to using TA as well, it's a miracle. Phaedrus would be beside himself, bless him, let alone his disciples, some of which are still here.

[peat]

Even the besotted FA's have turned to using TA as well, it's a miracle. Phaedrus would be beside himself, bless him, let alone his disciples, some of which are still here.
i think you'll find that Xerof has been exploring the cosmic realm of harmonics and even studying Lepidoptra for quite some time now

[Baa_Baa]

i think you'll find that Xerof has been exploring the cosmic realm of harmonics and even studying Lepidoptra for quite some time now

Possibly true peat, only Xerof can say though, but let's not diminish the profound shift from the devout FA's to actually incorporating some TA into their analysis. It is frankly an astounding shift, but anyone who subscribes to a TA point of view will be impressed, even though the analysis is pretty basic it is still helpful. I hope it continues, certainly better that the FA vs TA debate that has raged on an off for over 15 years! Lol.

[peat]

Possibly true peat, only Xerof can say though, but let's not diminish the profound shift from the devout FA's to actually incorporating some TA into their analysis. It is frankly an astounding shift, but anyone who subscribes to a TA point of view will be impressed, even though the analysis is pretty basic it is still helpful. I hope it continues, certainly better that the FA vs TA debate that has raged on an off for over 15 years! Lol.

quote from 2005 where Xerof spots a Gartley
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2065-AUD-USD&p=50426&viewfull=1#post50426

so thats about 12 years...

back to AIR tho
in fact his $3.00 target is based on a 78.2% retracement from the 2016 high.
8823

[Beagle]

Should now reclaim $3++ mark, as it's just completed an INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation.
IMO
DYOR

I won't talk too much about the previous H&S formation breakdown at $2.75 as some chose to argue the point, saying it's TA voodoo

AIR have stolen a march getting Key on their board - good work team

Its very strange how we don't hear the usual deluge of negativism these days isn't it and none of the TA guys seem to be commenting now the pattern is stronger.
Well done to all holders who held through the absolute tsunami of negativism in late 2016 and who have seen the SP recover ~ 50% plus dividend since October 2016.
I am very reluctant to call $3 again but worth noting that the stock currently trades on a 2017 forecast PE at 32 cps of 8.15 compared to a 10 year average of about 11.
I think we all now know that nobody can tell us what part of the cycle we are in. I think they're a fantastic dividend yield hold over the next five years with plenty of potential for special divvies toward the latter part of that time horizon (as they complete their very thorough fleet modernization program in FY19), in addition to the annual expected normal ~ 20 cps fully imputed divvies. What's fair value ?... I will leave for others to pontificate over, I am holding for long term dividend income.


Do H&S patterns form pony tails .......now Johnny on board have to don't they?
LOL good one mate. Doubt your pony tail goes down to $1.50 anytime soon :p
Hope you're enjoying your holiday.

[Beagle]

Yes... personally did not rate him as pm however his connections should be useful to AIR. Smart move.

Market seems to agree with the consensus view on here.

[sb9]

Market seems to agree with the consensus view on here.

Sure do, he's been very successful businessman/trader before he became a successful politician/PM. Very clever, timely and astute move by AIR board, kudos to them.

[Meextr]

A lot of people say he is full of hot air, but he does make things fly. National Party may regret losing him come September.

[Beagle]

A lot of people say he is full of hot air, but he does make things fly. National Party may regret losing him come September.

Yeah.... Bill English is a safe pair of hands economically but its not as though he has a charismatic personality is it ! I quite like him for his level headedness but it remains to be seen if that carries the day.

[mikeybycrikey]

A lot of people say he is full of hot air, but he does make things fly. National Party may regret losing him come September.

Sounds like hiring JK might be a way for AIR to cut their fuel bill in the future, with all this hot air and making things fly.

[Sgt Pepper]

[QUOTE=sb9;664641]Sure do, he's been very successful businessman/trader before he became a successful politician/PM. Very clever, timely and astute move by AIR board, kudos to them

I would have thought JK would have been a better fit on the Hawaiian Airlines board than Air NZ.??

[dobby41]

Sure do, he's been very successful businessman/trader before he became a successful politician/PM. Very clever, timely and astute move by AIR board, kudos to them.

Successful businessman?
When was that? He was a trader - differant skill set.
Not saying he won't be useful on the AIR board or not.

[freddagg]

Market seems to agree with the consensus view on here.

Interestingly the market agreed yesterday as well, only it hadn"t been announced.

[Beagle]

Interestingly the market agreed yesterday as well, only it hadn"t been announced.

Interesting conspiracy theory that I wouldn't completely discount however if one accepts that at face value then it would appear QAN shareholders were also even more pleased about the announcement before it was announced as QAN shares were up much more strongly. Perhaps his appointment is good for all the regions airlines :p

[Traderx]

Have exited today, maybe too early but happy to take money off the table after such a strong period. Still back the company direction but in my opinion is no longer the screaming bargain it was in the low 2s/sub 2.

[Bobdn]

I'll probably keep mine for a little longer. It's now my third largest holding, pushing Chorus into 4rh place today.

I think I'll buy the model dreamliner off the AIR NZ store using my airpoints. Only $99.

https://merchandise.airnewzealand.co.nz/aircraft

[couta1]

Have exited today, maybe too early but happy to take money off the table after such a strong period. Still back the company direction but in my opinion is no longer the screaming bargain it was in the low 2s/sub 2. Good on you, once this stock gets to this price level and above, trash city is never far away.

[stoploss]

Good on you, once this stock gets to this price level and above, trash city is never far away.

As pointed out by other posters the stock has quite a bit of momentum at the moment ..no point in standing in front of a freight train , or in this cash a roaring jet engine ....
Couta we get it you are all out @ 2.50 but no need to keep bashing it

[winner69]

Looking forward to 3 bucks again

Once that resistance broken it's all good. Resistance becomes support and all that stuff

This time it will be different - remember AIR on track for 2nd highest ever profit

The halo still shines bright - even enhanced with Johnny on board

[couta1]

As pointed out by other posters the stock has quite a bit of momentum at the moment ..no point in standing in front of a freight train , or in this cash a roaring jet engine ....
Couta we get it you are all out @ 2.50 but no need to keep bashing it Actually I was out before the last dividend solely for the reason of not wanting any more divvies in the last financial year, that's why I loaded up on Spark as their payment date was April. Nothing wrong with giving Traderx a bit of encouragement on his decision to take profits, nor painting a clear picture of the nature of this stock for those thinking of buying in at current prices (I reckon I know it's behaviour as well as anyone does) PS-If you read back through my posts over the last year, you will see I had $2.50 as a target price. PPS-The whole market in general has momentum at the moment, but that ain't going to last.

[couta1]

Looking forward to 3 bucks again

Once that resistance broken it's all good. Resistance becomes support and all that stuff

This time it will be different - remember AIR on track for 2nd highest ever profit

The halo still shines bright - even enhanced with Johnny on board So winner, my question for you is, will Air reach your $3 target before Sum reaches your $7 one.:D

[winner69]

Couta me old mate SUM a certainty to get to 7 bucks sometime soon but AIR as some momentum at the moment so will get to 3 bucks really soon

At LHR waiting for delayed Icelandair flight ,,,,pretty boring

[couta1]

Couta me old mate SUM a certainty to get to 7 bucks sometime soon but AIR as some momentum at the moment so will get to 3 bucks really soon

At LHR waiting for delayed Icelandair flight ,,,,pretty boring All good then winner, difference for me is I'm very comfortable loading up on Sum at it's current bargin price, but too twitchy to buy Air at it's current lofty price. PS-Will be back though, near the $2.30ies.

[winner69]

You never know you might get your 230 or less if the current excitement / exuberance pops suddenly

But the current hype is strong enough to keep if going

The god like aura of Chris and Johnny is worth heaps ...AIR seems to be winding the PR machine up to full speed

[couta1]

You never know you might get your 230 or less if the current excitement / exuberance pops suddenly

But the current hype is strong enough to keep if going

The god like aura of Chris and Johnny is worth heaps ...AIR seems to be winding the PR machine up to full speed Those 3 words say it all winner, excitement/exuberance and hype. PS-I will vacate this thread now lest I upset the locals. Sleep tight.

[winner69]

Those 3 words say it all winner, excitement/exuberance and hype. PS-I will vacate this thread now lest I upset the locals. Sleep tight.

You up late ' sleep well

Icelandair very delayed for me

[Marilyn Munroe]

Now that their investment in Alitalia the Italian flag carrier has gone t*ts up will Etihad turn their attention to Cullen Airlines?

John Key can no longer sell them them the governments stake as he is not PM but as a director he can recommend shareholders big and small accept any offer from Etihad.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Those 3 words say it all winner, excitement/exuberance and hype. PS-I will vacate this thread now lest I upset the locals. Sleep tight.

But excitement exuberance and hype can send share prices to ridiculously high prices eh couta i

[BlackPeter]

Its very strange how we don't hear the usual deluge of negativism these days isn't it and none of the TA guys seem to be commenting now the pattern is stronger.
Well done to all holders who held through the absolute tsunami of negativism in late 2016 and who have seen the SP recover ~ 50% plus dividend since October 2016.


The calm before the storm?

So what do you want the people who contributed to this "deluge of negativism" you described to do? Put ash on their foreheads because the market didn't follow in the short term their view of AIR's value?

I was one of the people who said that they see AIR as a good but cyclical company rather at its peak than at its bottom and therefore midterm rather going down than up, and I am still doubtful about the midterm outlook of tourism and the travel industry. In my view just too many indicators point currently towards a cyclical peak scenario.

How likely is oil to keep staying as low as it currently is?
How likely that increasing competition does not further reduce margins for all players?
How likely that tourists keep ignoring the deteriorating NZ environment and the increasing NZ prices?
How likely that another big terror event like 9/11, a volcano eruption, a war in SEA or a growing war in the Middle East might impact on tourist streams?

However - this does not exclude the stock price to keep climbing (for some time to come). Remember - markets are in the short term like a voting machine in a popularity contest, only long term are they weighing value and correctly assess risks.

If we look at AIR at the current price with a predicted forward PE of 8.8 and a predicted forward CAGR of 3.6 (though backward CAGR only 1.2), than they still appear to be reasonably priced (though not cheap) if we assume that things will continue as nicely as they did over the last 7 years or so. Question is just ... how often in the past have we seen linear growth over long periods in this industry?

Right, i.e. if history is any guide, than a downturn is over the next couple of years much more likely than a continuation of this climb. So, I guess it is just balancing risks vs. opportunities. The optimist keeps focussing on the (diminishing, but still good looking) predicted returns, the realist accepts that the likelihood of a downturn is increasing by the day. Interesting to note that psychology knows about the "optimism bias", but I never heard about a "realism bias".

Anyway - all the best with your investment, but if I would still hold, I'd currently see this as a good time to sell ...

DYOR.

[Beagle]

All I will say BlackPeter is good luck waiting for your 80 cents target buy price :lol:

[BlackPeter]

All I will say BlackPeter is good luck waiting for your 80 cents target buy price :lol:

80 cents? This was some time ago (around 2008/09) ... I am for sure happy to allow for some inflation since then :p;

[Beagle]

The calm before the storm? No - The calm before more calm. VIX on the NYSE hit its lowest ever point yesterday indicating a total lack of fear in the market

So what do you want the people who contributed to this "deluge of negativism" you described to do? Put ash on their foreheads because the market didn't follow in the short term their view of AIR's value? LOL If you want to, bottom line the collapse you called for hasn't happened and isn't looking likely to happen anytime soon

I was one of the people who said that they see AIR as a good but cyclical company rather at its peak than at its bottom and therefore midterm rather going down than up, and I am still doubtful about the midterm outlook of tourism and the travel industry. In my view just too many indicators point currently towards a cyclical peak scenario. I think IATA know better than you and I and according to them they see global airline travel continuing to grow at 5-6% for the foreseeable future

How likely is oil to keep staying as low as it currently is?No idea but AIR are well positioned with one of the youngest and most fuel efficient fleets in the industry. Besides that fuel prices and yield are inextricably linked so if oil goes up to around $70 barrel AIR could actually be better positioned than at the current level as they'll be able to leverage the efficiency of their fleet better
How likely that increasing competition does not further reduce margins for all players?AIR management were very confident at the last conference call that yields had bottomed based on the full on intensity of all the new entrants and saw increasing yields this period and further out. I am confident they know the industry better than you or I
How likely that tourists keep ignoring the deteriorating NZ environment and the increasing NZ prices? We're one of the for safest places or earth to visit according to a recent survey. The environment is still one of the cleanest in the world, go and have a look at the clarity of Lake Whakatipu in Queenstown for yourself if you don't believe me. The bitter taste of poor quality is remembered long after the thrill of a bargain. I remain confident tourists get a quality tourist experience for the money
How likely that another big terror event like 9/11, a volcano eruption, a war in SEA or a growing war in the Middle East might impact on tourist streams?See comment of safety above. Lots of people are currently reluctant to travel to Europe or America or the middle East for obvious reasons. In the troubled world N.Z. looks better and better with each passing day.

However - this does not exclude the stock price to keep climbing (for some time to come). Remember - markets are in the short term like a voting machine in a popularity contest, only long term are they weighing value and correctly assess risks.Teflon John's appointment is a shot of confidence for the market in the company, it is what it is, a vote by a well respected former leader that he believes in the brand.

If we look at AIR at the current price with a predicted forward PE of 8.8 and a predicted forward CAGR of 3.6 (though backward CAGR only 1.2), than they still appear to be reasonably priced (though not cheap) if we assume that things will continue as nicely as they did over the last 7 years or so. Question is just ... how often in the past have we seen linear growth over long periods in this industry?I am forecasting EPS of 32 cps, average analyst forecast is 31 cps. Puts them on a forward PE of 8.44 using my forecast. The average PE over the last 11 years is apparently 11.
Has it ever crossed you mid that within the normal cycle AIR might be growing earnings during the ongoing development of the company ? They keep adding modern really efficient planes.

Right, i.e. if history is any guide, than a downturn is over the next couple of years much more likely than a continuation of this climb. So, I guess it is just balancing risks vs. opportunities. The optimist keeps focussing on the (diminishing, but still good looking) predicted returns, the realist accepts that the likelihood of a downturn is increasing by the day. Interesting to note that psychology knows about the "optimism bias", but I never heard about a "realism bias".Growth is happening in the travel sector generally driven off the ever decreasing cost of flights in real terms and an expanding middle class in Asia and many other parts of the world. Barring another 9/11 type event I don't see this changing in the foreseeable future

Anyway - all the best with your investment, but if I would still hold, I'd currently see this as a good time to sell ...

I am very happy to hold for long term dividend income. I am expecting $1 in ordinary dividends in the next 5 years and about 50 cents in specials as they complete their fleet replacement program. $1.50 / $2.70 = 55.55% return net to me in five years or an average of approx. 11.11% net per annum. Grossing that up for imputation credits 11.11 / 0.72 = 15.43% average gross annual return. I am very happy to sit and collect that for the foreseeable future and look forward to John Key's contribution to continuing to grow AIR N.Z. To be honest whether the market prices AIR shares at $2.00, 3.00 or whatever, I don't really care as I am holding for superb dividend income and will use that to enhance my lifestyle with more travel and fun. Good luck waiting for your bargain buy-in at whatever price you see value at mate.

[BlackPeter]

I am very happy to hold for long term dividend income. I am expecting $1 in ordinary dividends in the next 5 years and about 50 cents in specials as they complete their fleet replacement program. $1.50 / $2.70 = 55.55% return net to me in five years or an average of approx. 11.11% net per annum. Grossing that up for imputation credits 11.11 / 0.72 = 15.43% average gross annual return. I am very happy to sit and collect that for the foreseeable future and look forward to John Key's contribution to continuing to grow AIR N.Z.

Confirmation bias, endowment effect or both ;)?

NB - 4-traders puts them on a consensus target of $2.23 (this is a drop) and call them a "hold". Sure -analysts are not always right, but in my experience they are as well subject to "optimism bias" and more often too optimistic than too pessimistic.

Anyway - I wish you all the best ...

[Beagle]

Confirmation bias, endowment effect or both ;)?

Anyway - I wish you all the best ...

LOL always a pleasure debating with you :)

[777]

Forecasting 5 years ahead in aviation is a big call.

[Beagle]

Forecasting 5 years ahead in aviation is a big call.

If you want to focus on the current earnings, current dividend yield and PE discount to regional peers and ten year average PE that's perfectly understandable in this industry, I agree but one thing that's undeniable is that they're finishing up their major capex program in FY 19 and on the balance of probabilities the stock will generate tremendous amounts for free cash flow in FY20- FY22. What the industry conditions will be in those years as you quite rightly suggest is almost anyone's guess.

[vin]

Well, it's been a long time coming. I have sat patiently waiting to exit since the lowest of lows last year. I had originally sold a substantial holding at $3.02 then caught the falling knife VERY early at $2.70. I had told myself I would get out of AIR as soon as I got back in the green/even. I've stuck to my gameplan which isn't always easy to do! I'm entirely out. Goodluck holders

[Beagle]

Well, it's been a long time coming. I have sat patiently waiting to exit since the lowest of lows last year. I had originally sold a substantial holding at $3.02 then caught the falling knife VERY early at $2.70. I had told myself I would get out of AIR as soon as I got back in the green/even. I've stuck to my gameplan which isn't always easy to do! I'm entirely out. Goodluck holders

Congrats, its good to have a thesis / plan behind one's investing. In your case you wanted to quit at a certain price, in mine I'm happy to sit and collect dividends. Good to have a plan and helps one insulate themselves from some of the market noise.

[RupertBear]

Good on you, once this stock gets to this price level and above, trash city is never far away.

Looks like you're spot on Couta

[Raz]

Looks like you're spot on Couta

I think he summed up a lot of shareholders thoughts..personally great trading day:-)

[Baa_Baa]

I think he summed up a lot of shareholders thoughts..personally great trading day:-)

Mr Fibonacci said about $2.70 was also 23.6% of the entire move up from 2012 and, it's also by chance(?) 61.8% retrace of the decline from the highs. Spooky Fibs.

What would Mr Fibbo know anyway eh? Wouldn't want a TA to spoil the party by sharing their analysis, in case it was perceived as a deluge of negativism. Despite the fact that a TA can make upside calls as easily as downside calls, and do, that's the whole point of TA. They just don't bother sharing them here. I wonder why?

Never mind, even the 100MA is a fair way below here (so is the rising trend line), so it's unlikely that the reformed FA's who discovered one single TA marker and integrated it into their trading strategy, will sell at their marker, because this is a long term hold for the Divis, despite the cyclical tendency to smash capital value.

The Elliotwavers (who?) might be looking at $270 as a B or (B) or [B] depending on their view of the cycle or super cycle. But that's just inviting criticism and ridicule, which usually accompanies prognostication and is followed by scorn. Isaac Asimov told us that.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/257547.pdf

[RTFQ]

Generally speaking TA's are in for the short haul and FA's are long haul. I'm out at what I'm thinking is the peak meantime. The winter months generate a lot of headaches for airlines, manpower sickness, weather delays regionally and associated engineering difficulties. Historically the share price goes soft over this period as the market capitulates. AIR has been good to me and I will be back in hopefully around Sept or Oct. Thanks for the all the differing thoughts guys n girls.

[Meextr]

Does anyone think we will see further benefit to SP from 1st Sep' when JK actually joins the board?

[Baddarcy]

Oil seems to have fallen back a bit recently, WTI is now back in at $USD45 down from the mid $USD 50s not so long ago.

I've seen a few posts about the fleet replacements being all done and dusted in a few years thus freeing up a whole bucketload of cash. What is the consensus on the 777-200s? As at 01/04 the 'Seat weighted Average age' for them is 11 years.

I can't help but notice that the A320 short hauls average age is 12.7 years and Air NZ is in the process of replacing them.

Is the expectation is that they will run them into the ground like the 767s or will they replace them once the current fit out reaches end of life, there are a lot of similarities in size and range with the 787-9?

[Beagle]

I expect another ~ 9 years from the 777-200's.

[Kelvin]

Oil seems to have fallen back a bit recently, WTI is now back in at $USD45 down from the mid $USD 50s not so long ago.

I've seen a few posts about the fleet replacements being all done and dusted in a few years thus freeing up a whole bucketload of cash. What is the consensus on the 777-200s? As at 01/04 the 'Seat weighted Average age' for them is 11 years.

I can't help but notice that the A320 short hauls average age is 12.7 years and Air NZ is in the process of replacing them.

Is the expectation is that they will run them into the ground like the 767s or will they replace them once the current fit out reaches end of life, there are a lot of similarities in size and range with the 787-9?

Aircraft lifespan is largely determined by flight cycles rather than age. 777-200s perform fewer cycles operating long haul so will be around significantly longer than the A320s

They might want to replace the Q300s first, 777-200s still have plenty of life in them.

[RTFQ]

"I can't help but notice that the A320 short hauls average age is 12.7 years and Air NZ is in the process of replacing them"

sounds like NEO has engine problems, so this could be delayed

[Raz]

Generally speaking TA's are in for the short haul and FA's are long haul. I'm out at what I'm thinking is the peak meantime. The winter months generate a lot of headaches for airlines, manpower sickness, weather delays regionally and associated engineering difficulties. Historically the share price goes soft over this period as the market capitulates. AIR has been good to me and I will be back in hopefully around Sept or Oct. Thanks for the all the differing thoughts guys n girls.

Some of us must be Skitzo then. Happy AIR has been good to you... think majority may not have the same answer. I have loved the volatility as a trader and has help pay for my upgraded RS 7 :-) I would have though TA was vital to consider for a share like AIR.

[RTFQ]

Some of us must be Skitzo then. Happy AIR has been good to you... think majority may not have the same answer. I have loved the volatility as a trader and has help pay for my upgraded RS 7 :-) I would have though TA was vital to consider for a share like AIR.

no just bigger balls than I. Good luck.

ps. I used TA to predict this current price rise as stated a couple of weeks back.

[Bobdn]

Looks like you're spot on Couta

Not so fast Rupert Bear.

[Beagle]

The recent decline in oil prices gives AIR an excellent opportunity to lock in forward cover on fuel prices for the first half of FY18 which together with the recent improvement in yield as per the March 2017 operating stat's and ongoing strong growth in tourism shows the fundamentals remain very sound. QAN been showing good SP growth lately so confidence in the sector in this part of the world seems to be continuing to recover nicely notwithstanding the much higher level's of competition.

[couta1]

Not so fast Rupert Bear. June is the new May this year, don't count ya chickens just yet.:eek2:

[sb9]

My gut feel once this surges past the 2.70 mark this time, it'll track higher and stay higher for a while. Not quite sure it'll hit the magic $3 mark though yet until FY results are out. Unless there's some sort of trading upgrade from management.

[Bobdn]

June is the new May this year, don't count ya chickens just yet.:eek2:

Nah, just felt like tempting fate:)

[Raz]

nice piece

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11850796

[Xerof]

My gut feel once this surges past the 2.70 mark this time, it'll track higher and stay higher for a while. Not quite sure it'll hit the magic $3 mark though yet until FY results are out. Unless there's some sort of trading upgrade from management.
You mean like qantas just did? :cool:

[sb9]

You mean like qantas just did? :cool:

Wasn't aware of that, just saw that news after seeing your post. Well there's a good chance that we may have one from AIR hopefully :)

[winner69]

Wasn't aware of that, just saw that news after seeing your post. Well there's a good chance that we may have one from AIR hopefully :)

Of course there will be one sb - $500m guidance was a nonsense

AIR management treats punters as if they are stupid. Such arrogance

[Beagle]

You mean like qantas just did? :cool:

Thanks for letting us know that. Interestingly I crunched the numbers on an after tax basis for QAN at the mid point of their forecast and AIR at $500m less full N.Z. tax and on today's closing prices they're on identical FY17 PE's of 8.33. I think there is a chance of an AIR upgrade and have thought for quite some time now their official guidance issued in February 17 was very conservative.

[freddagg]

Of course there will be one sb - $500m guidance was a nonsense

AIR management treats punters as if they are stupid. Such arrogance

I see that retail investors are only 4% of the share register so I can understand a degree of arrogance.

[Bobdn]

I see that retail investors are only 4% of the share register so I can understand a degree of arrogance.

I was amazed at that, didn't realize we were such a small proportion of investors.

[couta1]

Thanks for letting us know that. Interestingly I crunched the numbers on an after tax basis for QAN at the mid point of their forecast and AIR at $500m less full N.Z. tax and on today's closing prices they're on identical FY17 PE's of 8.33. I think there is a chance of an AIR upgrade and have thought for quite some time now their official guidance issued in February 17 was very conservative. There won't be any further upgrade between now and the full year report. At the investor presentation the other day they narrowed their guidance range for the year to between 475-525 mill, remember former guidance range was between 400-600mil so they have just given the market an update hence the share price increase yesterday. They would have to be certain of topping 600 mill to issue any further guidance.

[Poet]

There won't be any further upgrade between now and the full year report. At the investor presentation the other day they narrowed their guidance range for the year to between 475-525 mill, remember former guidance range was between 400-600mil so they have just given the market an update hence the share price increase yesterday. They would have to be certain of topping 600 mill to issue any further guidance.

From interim announcement February 2017

"Based on the current market environment and expectations for the average jet fuel price in the second half of the year of US$65 per barrel, the airline is targeting 2017 earnings before taxation to be in the range of $475 to $525 million."

So the investor presentation doesn't represent an update, just restatemet of previous outlook. Maybe an update to come, maybe not...

[couta1]

From interim announcement February 2017

"Based on the current market environment and expectations for the average jet fuel price in the second half of the year of US$65 per barrel, the airline is targeting 2017 earnings before taxation to be in the range of $475 to $525 million."

So the investor presentation doesn't represent an update, just restatemet of previous outlook. Maybe an update to come, maybe not... You would think they would have to be confident of hitting near 600 mill or over to issue an update, it would have to be well over that to warrant a $3 share price, look what the projected earnings were last time it went over $3.

[winner69]

You would think they would have to be confident of hitting near 600 mill or over to issue an update, it would have to be well over that to warrant a $3 share price, look what the projected earnings were last time it went over $3.

But look at the ridiculously low PE it was also on then

AIR has been so great since its being RERATED - much higher PE on slightly reduced profits equals $3 plus

And markets are happy as

No worries

[Beagle]

$500m = 32 cps after tax. 10 year average PE is 11. I believe one could legitimately make a good case that the intense level of competition currently being experienced is amongst the very strongest they've seen in their 77 year history and yet the resilience of their business is such that they're still making a very healthy profit.
I will leave people to decide for themselves what PE they think is right for whatever part of the cycle they think the airline is at. I will only say that I am very comfortable with my current holding and the current price and am confident of the very strong dividend yield case that's supporting my investment decision.

[couta1]

But look at the ridiculously low PE it was also on then

AIR has been so great since its being RERATED - much higher PE on slightly reduced profits equals $3 plus

And markets are happy as

No worries You in boots and all, aye winner? PS-Im not buying back in yet as I reckon a better entry price will come over the next couple of months, if not I'll just load up on another high divvy paying stock, $3 or near it is a sell on this stock not a hold.

[stoploss]

You in boots and all, aye winner? PS-Im not buying back in yet as I reckon a better entry price will come over the next couple of months, if not I'll just load up on another high divvy paying stock, $3 or near it is a sell on this stock not a hold.

Why bail at $ 2.50 then ?

[Beagle]

You in boots and all, aye winner? PS-Im not buying back in yet as I reckon a better entry price will come over the next couple of months, if not I'll just load up on another high divvy paying stock, $3 or near it is a sell on this stock not a hold.

I wouldn't be so sure mate. Management seemed very confident at the half year conference call that the outlook for yields in the current half and beyond was improving.
Typical airline behavior from new entrants establishing new routes like a lot did to N.Z. last year is to discount really hard at the outset to establish demand and build the route and if its not profitable within 12 -18 months, review it. I think we've already seen a very high "spring tide" on the competition and aggressive pricing from competitors front and new competitors building their route to N.Z. will want to see profitability in 2017 or otherwise... Comments from the CEO of Qatar last week suggested lil ol N.Z. is an extremely expensive route for them and they'd quit the route if they weren't happy with laptop restrictions...reading between the lines, I would add "if market demand isn't there for any other reason that would make the route unprofitable".

I reckon one or two people on here waiting for a GFC Mk2 and wanting to buy this company for a real bargain price would be well advised not to hold their breath :)

I think to invest in this company one has to work out what their investment case is. Short term its not cheap, long term I am as confident as you ever can be with any company in a volatile industry that the dividend yield case is very compelling indeed. For what its worth, I am looking to increase my stake at circa $2.50 if it gets back down there at some stage over the next few months.

[Everwood]

Does anyone have any estimates on what the full year dividend, including any potential special dividend might be?

[Jantar]

Does anyone have any estimates on what the full year dividend, including any potential special dividend might be?
My estimate is 10 cps

[Raz]

My estimate is 10 cps

I not selling my long term holding..AIR has been so clever on its marketing this year and the competition has not gained a foothold in the AUK-LAX route. AA full relaunch in Oct however they lack the depth of service to compete. The advantage of the domestic network they have used well..sucks to pay the premium as a customer however to your advantage if your a shareholder. If you want to pay a fair price for air travel you naturally have to hedge by gaining the dividend to offset. I found some great deals this year however the industry has made me work hard for them..so much harder than in the past.

They do have to look at the logistics for Europe travel as they do not have the natural advantage....suspect that when load factors have been hit hard with the Chine cheapie options and Emirates and Singapore having the stronger branch network to Europe for the price point.

The social marketing and data management of AIR have stepped up this year as well...they have impressed and I'm all in.

[couta1]

Why bail at $ 2.50 then ? Reread post # 10912, and it was below $2.50.

[iceman]

About to board Air NZ Dreamliner for Buenos Aires and they announce an "unserviceable fault" with the plane. At least 2 hours wait for a different plane. Hopefully nothing very serious with the Dreamliner !!

[Beagle]

Does anyone have any estimates on what the full year dividend, including any potential special dividend might be?
10 cps and absolutely no chance of a special this year as gearing limit simply will not allow it and it wouldn't be prudent.


I not selling my long term holding..AIR has been so clever on its marketing this year and the competition has not gained a foothold in the AUK-LAX route. AA full relaunch in Oct however they lack the depth of service to compete. The advantage of the domestic network they have used well..sucks to pay the premium as a customer however to your advantage if your a shareholder. If you want to pay a fair price for air travel you naturally have to hedge by gaining the dividend to offset. I found some great deals this year however the industry has made me work hard for them..so much harder than in the past.

They do have to look at the logistics for Europe travel as they do not have the natural advantage....suspect that when load factors have been hit hard with the Chine cheapie options and Emirates and Singapore having the stronger branch network to Europe for the price point.

The social marketing and data management of AIR have stepped up this year as well...they have impressed and I'm all in.
Agree 100%. Nice to hear that by and large you are impressed.

About to board Air NZ Dreamliner for Buenos Aires and they announce an "unserviceable fault" with the plane. At least 2 hours wait for a different plane. Hopefully nothing very serious with the Dreamliner !!
They have plenty of local engineering expertise on hand at Auckland. Unserviceable simply means cannot be fixed within the tight timeframe required for operation of that flight with that aircraft. Boats are very complicated machines as you know mate but planes are in another league altogether and things do need fixing on a very regular basis...30,000 individual parts just in each Rolls Royce Trent engine !

[Jantar]

About to board Air NZ Dreamliner for Buenos Aires and they announce an "unserviceable fault" with the plane. At least 2 hours wait for a different plane. Hopefully nothing very serious with the Dreamliner !!
I struck a similar problem 3 weeks ago. What should have been an easy trip to Europe proved to be quite a mission:

I arrived at Queenstown Airport at 4:20 pm with plenty of time to spare, as I had till 5:25 to check in. But then the plane I was supposed to fly out on didn't arrive due to some medical emergency in Auckland and we were finally airborne at 9:00 pm. My Dreamliner flight to Shanghai was supposed to take off at 11:00 pm, and with a 1:50 flight to Auckland that was making things a bit tight. The Air hostess did say that as there were 5 of us boarding that flight they would hold it for 30 mins for us. After getting off that domestic flight we ran from the Domestic terminal to the international terminal. Got through immigration and security fairly quickly, only to find that the plane we were meant to be on had a fault and was being taken to the hanger for maintenance.

Air New Zealand did manage to find another plane, one that had just landed from Singapore, and at 2:00 am we were finally airborne and bound for Shanghai. But 3 hours late, and only 2 hours to change flights at Shanghai just didn't add up to a stress free trip. They announced that the flight to Vienna, and a coupe of others as well, were being held, and we wouldn't need to go through all the usual formalities, like arrival cards, but would just transfer direct to the departure gate.
Great news, but someone forgot to tell Chinese immigration and customs. Not only did I have to wait in line for immigration, but once I got there, I was directed back to fill in an immigration card. Finally through immigration, and customs and onto the departure area where I again had to go through immigration, and had to go back and get a departure card and fill that in. But on departure Chinese security were great. I pointed to the departure board and said my plane was already boarding and a security guard escorted me to the Diplomatic Passport queue and I went straight through. Once through there departure security wanted to search my carry on luggage because I had batteries for the camera. Don't people carry spare batteries anymore?
I ran to find my gate, and was the last one to board, but the Austrian cabin crew made me welcome and acted like we had all the time in the world. I took my seat, watched the safety video, and then found out we did have all the time in the world. The pilot announced that the Swiss aircraft beside us had been ready to depart for over an hour, and hadn't been given clearance to even start its engines yet, so it was likely we would be delayed as well.
For two and a half hours we sat in our seats and waited until finally we were on our way. Arrived in Vienna at 6:00 pm, and at my hotel by 7:00. In bed by 9:00 almost exactly 48 hours after I got out of bed on Wednesday morning.

Had a similar issue at Shanghai on the return trip, and will never again fly via China at all, even if it means not travellin on AIR NZ

[troyvdh]

Why do they serve chlorinated tap water on international flights.

[BeeBop]

Why do they serve chlorinated tap water on international flights.
Qatar Airways served Waiwera Still water ..... Hmmm, would have thought, Air NZ would have the fancy water.

[Raz]

I struck a similar problem 3 weeks ago. What should have been an easy trip to Europe proved to be quite a mission:

I arrived at Queenstown Airport at 4:20 pm with plenty of time to spare, as I had till 5:25 to check in. But then the plane I was supposed to fly out on didn't arrive due to some medical emergency in Auckland and we were finally airborne at 9:00 pm. My Dreamliner flight to Shanghai was supposed to take off at 11:00 pm, and with a 1:50 flight to Auckland that was making things a bit tight. The Air hostess did say that as there were 5 of us boarding that flight they would hold it for 30 mins for us. After getting off that domestic flight we ran from the Domestic terminal to the international terminal. Got through immigration and security fairly quickly, only to find that the plane we were meant to be on had a fault and was being taken to the hanger for maintenance.

Air New Zealand did manage to find another plane, one that had just landed from Singapore, and at 2:00 am we were finally airborne and bound for Shanghai. But 3 hours late, and only 2 hours to change flights at Shanghai just didn't add up to a stress free trip. They announced that the flight to Vienna, and a coupe of others as well, were being held, and we wouldn't need to go through all the usual formalities, like arrival cards, but would just transfer direct to the departure gate.
Great news, but someone forgot to tell Chinese immigration and customs. Not only did I have to wait in line for immigration, but once I got there, I was directed back to fill in an immigration card. Finally through immigration, and customs and onto the departure area where I again had to go through immigration, and had to go back and get a departure card and fill that in. But on departure Chinese security were great. I pointed to the departure board and said my plane was already boarding and a security guard escorted me to the Diplomatic Passport queue and I went straight through. Once through there departure security wanted to search my carry on luggage because I had batteries for the camera. Don't people carry spare batteries anymore?
I ran to find my gate, and was the last one to board, but the Austrian cabin crew made me welcome and acted like we had all the time in the world. I took my seat, watched the safety video, and then found out we did have all the time in the world. The pilot announced that the Swiss aircraft beside us had been ready to depart for over an hour, and hadn't been given clearance to even start its engines yet, so it was likely we would be delayed as well.
For two and a half hours we sat in our seats and waited until finally we were on our way. Arrived in Vienna at 6:00 pm, and at my hotel by 7:00. In bed by 9:00 almost exactly 48 hours after I got out of bed on Wednesday morning.

Had a similar issue at Shanghai on the return trip, and will never again fly via China at all, even if it means not travellin on AIR NZ

That is a bad run. Just completed a three month trip consulting in China and yes this is common at their airports...

[777]

Why do they serve chlorinated tap water on international flights.

You asked the same question in post 10840 and I answered it in post 10845.

[sb9]

10 cps and absolutely no chance of a special this year as gearing limit simply will not allow it and it wouldn't be prudent.

I think so too 10c final is dead certain, if there' is trading upgrade they might give lil cream on top with 12c as final.

100% no chance of a special this year.

[couta1]

You asked the same question in post 10840 and I answered it in post 10845. Yes some on here seem to like asking the same question over and over, they need to take heed of an old saying, measure twice and cut once.

[sb9]

Wow, someone took that big 2.70 wall down in a hurry....

[Beagle]

Yes some on here seem to like asking the same question over and over, they need to take heed of an old saying, measure twice and cut once.
Hopefully a certain poster on here who keeps repeating that AIR be sold to Etihad or some other sand state controlled airline will read your post and take the hint too !


Wow, someone took that big 2.70 wall down in a hurry....

I thought they made a very sound investment case with their institutional Australian investor briefing last week so I am not surprised to see it push higher on the back of that.

[couta1]

Qantas up 3.3% as we speak so being dragged up by that I reckon, too dear for me as I'm not interested in anything but an XXXOS holding for the next divvy. PS-I reckon the analysts have got some serious egg faces, as at 7/5/2017, their median target is still $2.23 with a high of $2.31.

[Raz]

Qantas up 3.3% as we speak so being dragged up by that I reckon, too dear for me as I'm not interested in anything but an XXXOS holding for the next divvy.

Partly sold my trading stock today..a near dollar return plus the dividend leaving me with a sizable longer term parcel with an average buy in price of 1.83. Plenty of headroom there for any volatility. It all comes down to your buy in and what price that is.. you have to feel for those that held on after the last drop and sweated it ever since.

[bull....]

Partly sold my trading stock today..a near dollar return plus the dividend leaving me with a sizable longer term parcel with an average buy in price of 1.83. Plenty of headroom there for any volatility. It all comes down to your buy in and what price that is.. you have to feel for those that held on after the last drop and sweated it ever since.

yes sold a few too have been playing it since those 1.70 lows as well , still got some for div too.

[Bobdn]

Wow, that's amazing buying Raz. My average buy price in comparison is 2.42 (averaged down from 2.62)! Bought a lot at 2.19 to get that giant dividend and then saw the price sink.

[see weed]

yes sold a few too have been playing it since those 1.70 lows as well , still got some for div too.
Same here. Have sold down a few AIR, HLG,GNE,WHS,HBL,SPK & STU....no more divs for 4 or 6 months, but in the meantime have been stocking up with IFT to grab their div in a few weeks. Will get back to the other lot at a later date:).

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92234637/air-nz-voted-countrys-most-attractive-employer

Plenty of attractive pony tails to pull and the most attractive employer in the country... no wonder John wanted on board :D...meanwhile over at the infamous Jetstar I see they're now cramming even more of them in. 29 inch pitch seats on international flights for goodness sake, that is truly pathetic, honestly I wouldn't fly even if it was free, some things are simply too disgusting to endure. http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/92327152/jetstar-adds-six-more-seats-to-airbus-a320

[couta1]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92234637/air-nz-voted-countrys-most-attractive-employer

Plenty of attractive pony tails to pull and the most attractive employer in the country... no wonder John wanted on board :D Being a flight attendant on domestic and trans Tasman flights ain't too attractive. My daughter worked for Air a few years ago and her pay worked out at $8/hr when she included all her down time that she wasn't getting paid for. Good for International attendants, pilots and all those other mega paid staff though. PS-She pulled the pin after having a nose to tail and writing her car off, on the way home from the airport one wet night ,after working a 14 hr trans Tasman shift(Home to home time)

[Beagle]

Sorry to hear that mate, must be pretty tough starting out. I thought they started on about $38K last time I heard and that included six weeks annual leave ?

Meanwhile... SP keeps gaining altitude...

[couta1]

Sorry to hear that mate, must be pretty tough starting out. I thought they started on about $38K last time I heard and that included six weeks annual leave ?

Meanwhile... SP keeps gaining altitude... Not sure exactly what they start on now, but 5 years ago, it was less. Once you move up the food chain, things get better and worshipping the pilots helps to get you there(I'll leave that to your imagination what that might mean) Meanwhile Qantas hits a 52wk high.

[Beagle]

Not sure exactly what they start on now, but 5 years ago, it was less. Once you move up the food chain, things get better and worshipping the pilots helps to get you there(I'll leave that to your imagination what that might mean) Meanwhile Qantas hits a 52wk high.
I'll keep it clean...Letting you bun down into a pony tail and not complaining when its pulled perhaps...has John Key got his pilots licence LOL
Is it just 55 year old men that have some peculiar thing with pulling pony tails LOL. My daughter has a large black pussycat with a very, very thick, long and furry tail...almost as much fun...thing is though, the cat doesn't much like it either :D

[sb9]

Well QAN keeps surging ahead full steam, upto 4.80. My pick is AIR might break 2.75 mark today.

[Beagle]

Well QAN keeps surging ahead full steam, upto 4.80. My pick is AIR might break 2.75 mark today.

QAN's outlook was noted as being strong and they are also seeing firmer yields across their network as are AIR. As predicted some time back, new entrants don't maintain opening special's on their new routes forever, its simply not feasible.

[winner69]

QAN reaches 52 week high after CEO gets a pie pushed into his face

Our man Chris needs to get more politically 'active'

[iceman]

New routes doing very well. Good news http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11853158

[janner]

New Zealand is in a very unique position. Do you have to use Auckland as a transit connection to anywhere apart from " The Islands " ??

Nah !!..

Therefore Air is in a unique position.. More so when share holding is perused..

[Beagle]

New routes doing very well. Good news http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11853158

Thanks, great news. I think that last paragraph is code speak for "we need to wait for the next Dreamliner after the one arriving in October 2017, before we can start direct flights to India"

[iceman]

Thanks, great news. I think that last paragraph is code speak for "we need to wait for the next Dreamliner after the one arriving in October 2017, before we can start direct flights to India"

Great news indeed Roger. The AKL-EZE BC seats are almost always sold out when I am travelling and PE normally pretty full too. Particularly in summer when Aussies and Kiwis are going over to South Argentina for cruises to Antarctica. Increasing to 5 flights pw and increasing seat numbers in BC by 50% with the new layout when that happens will do well for yields on this route

[Beagle]

Great news indeed Roger. The AKL-EZE BC seats are almost always sold out when I am travelling and PE normally pretty full too. Particularly in summer when Aussies and Kiwis are going over to South Argentina for cruises to Antarctica. Increasing to 5 flights pw and increasing seat numbers in BC by 50% with the new layout when that happens will do well for yields on this route Good to hear those high value seats are in strong demand, thanks for sharing.
Govt investing $178m in tourism infrastructure, partnering with councils to help keep N.Z. clean and green. https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/government-chips-178m-shore-tourism-infrastructure-b-202846?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%252520Last%252520Call

[macduffy]

Interesting article from Bloomberg on the profitability of the frequent flyer business - for Qantas!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/qantas-finds-loyalty-pays-better-than-selling-airplane-tickets

[Zaphod]

Interesting article from Bloomberg on the profitability of the frequent flyer business - for Qantas!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/qantas-finds-loyalty-pays-better-than-selling-airplane-tickets

Airpoints is undoubtedly a huge money spinner for AirNZ and although not necessarily advocating a sale, any private divestment of the loyalty programme could land the company with a huge windfall of cash.

Air Canada's return on the sale of 12.5% of Aeroplan was C$250M in 2005. AC subsequently sold their remaining stake to Loyalty Management group, and have recently started their own loytal programme once again called Altitude, which will be their primary rewards system by 2020.

One pending negative for Airpoints is the likely changes (perhaps via government regulation) to interchange fees, which will gut the credit-card rewards component upon which much of the system is based.

[iceman]

Air NZ's Airpoints program is without a doubt one of the best in the World. Good earnings rates for frequent flyers, simple to monitor/use and the most easy access to use the points of any of the many frequent flyer programs I have belonged to. Very valuable for AIR.

[mikeybycrikey]

Airpoints is undoubtedly a huge money spinner for AirNZ and although not necessarily advocating a sale, any private divestment of the loyalty programme could land the company with a huge windfall of cash.

I did wonder with the recent Airpoints changes to now make it a competitor with FlyBuys, whether they might be aiming for a partial sale in the next few years.

[Raz]

I did wonder with the recent Airpoints changes to now make it a competitor with FlyBuys, whether they might be aiming for a partial sale in the next few years.

That share price just keep going up..much surprised...still holding a bundle so no regrets...still sold 200,000 share too early....usually my most common error!

[couta1]

That share price just keep going up..much surprised...still holding a bundle so no regrets...still sold 200,000 share too early....usually my most common error! Divvy hunters driving it up like over at Spark, they should be buying IFT though, long time for the next drink from Air or Spark.:D PS-Yes I know that common error all too well.

[Beagle]

That share price just keep going up..much surprised...still holding a bundle so no regrets...still sold 200,000 share too early....usually my most common error!

Have a skim read of the full content of the RBNZ announcement this week, I posted a link in the GNE thread. They see as far out at late 2019 the OCR still being only 1.75% and not moving up to 2% till mid 2020. Very supportive environment for high dividend yield stocks. I see ~ $1.50 in fully imputed dividends over the next 5 years including two specials of ~ 25 cps in the FY20-FY22 years after their capex program is finished. $2.08 inclusive of imputation credits to be paid to shareholders over the next 5 years. (I acknowledge forecasting dividends that far out in the aviation industry is subject to significant potential variation).
Any wonder dividend hounds are chasing it ? Disc: I added even more yesterday at $2.76 as I believe on a dividend yield basis the investment case is very sound indeed.

[couta1]

Whilst Air has a great divvy yield, excluding specials it's on a par with a few others at current prices. I focus on the immediate upcoming divvy which just happens to be IFT right now ,which should announce a 10c divvy the same as the upcoming Air one. Of course I plan on coming back for the Air divvy but will choose another option if the SP is at or higher than currently, when it is buy time.

[Beagle]

Whilst Air has a great divvy yield, excluding specials it's on a par with a few others at current prices. I focus on the immediate upcoming divvy which just happens to be IFT right now ,which should announce a 10c divvy the same as the upcoming Air one. Of course I plan on coming back for the Air divvy but will choose another option if the SP is at or higher than currently, when it is buy time.

Been a tough year obviously. I think most of us underestimated the impact to yields that the lower oil price/competition would bring. It's a global phenomenon. Certainly my FY17 earnings estimates have fallen from 40-45c down to 30-35c. That said the share price move down has been dramatic, leaving the company (imho) significantly undervalued, as has been the case for about the last 5 years (has it been that long...).

I certainly knew that FY16 was peak, and perhaps naively thought the dividend / cash-flow story would support the stock. Clearly the negative momentum and uncertainty on yields has mean't a tough devaluation, and risk being priced into the stock.

Where to from here then?

For the ST investor: Yield comparisons get easier in January, so should the operating stats firm up I would expect a re-rating towards 2.50, which values the stock on a reasonable 8x PE.

For the LT investor: Personally i'm not too concerned whether AIR make 28 or 32c in FY17 EPS. The question is sustainability and ideally growth in profit from there. If sustained (along with cash flow) there is a bonanza in FY19-20. I did a few figures and have spoken to the CFO, basically over the next 4 years (if things stay stable), AIR could pay $1.80 in dividends. That's based on a 50c special in FY19, and a 60c special in 2020 plus recurring twenty something ordinary. Over 5 years, you basically get your entire capital back, so if the stock is still at $2, you double your money (15% p.a). Any growth is cream on top.
Pleased with the recent result and expecting the yield improvement to roll in from here. What is clear is that sentiment has switched from cautious to neutral and happily seen the stock advance. The cost performance and fleet simplification benefits are starting to show up, and I expect analysts to continue to be surprised positively by these over the coming 18m.

Still see the capital return bonanza in a few years time, this is now being recognised in analyst models, though most see this as outside the 'investment horizon', and therefore it gets little credit in the valuations (which cluster at 2.30 - funny that..).

The short term question for us now is what would you pay for 20c p.a dividend, I think it could settle at 2.60 pre div, 2.50 after - providing 8% forward yield.

For the longer term investor a return to yield growth in FY18 will bring EPS upgrades, which should support the stock towards $3.00. In FY19 we will need to watch out for announcements about capex, but as management have explained pre-payments for deliveries 2023-on (777-200 replacement) are likely to begin in 2021.

I maintain that the improvements this company has made through the last few years (fleet, IT, lounges, processes, new routes, network alliances) set it up for a sustainably higher level of returns than in the past, and that short term earnings focused analysts don't properly account for this in either their estimates or the multiples they use to value AIR. With the NZX50 trading at a high multiple, and the outlook for NZ better than ever, AIR should gradually re-rate upwards from here.

Best, Mod


Fair enough Couta1 but from a long term perspective here's mod's most recent thoughts of special dividends over the next five years and as I am not a trader as I mentioned to you when I was down in Wellington I am increasingly taking at least a five year view of stocks. I'm forecasting 2 x 25 cps special divvies in the FY20-FY22 years when there's a major gap in their capex but as you can see above Mod is modeling a lot more. A key factor in understanding this company is understanding their enormous cash flow when not expending it on capex which can be around ~ 80 cps per annum.
Its therefore quite possible all factors being equal in a normal operating environment that my five year horizon could see not only 5 years of ~ 20 cps ordinary dividends but potentially more than the 2 x 25 cps special dividends I am modelling. Mod quite correctly called the operating environment as supportive of the SP climbing towards $3 many months ago. He's been far more accurate than the so called professional broker analysts. A lot of people ignored managements statement in their February 2017 conference call that they were confident looking out that we'd passed the high tide mark of yield pressure. I think its worth more than $2.50, how much more who can really say ?... but the long term investment case as far as dividends and specials, (all fully imputed), is concerned is compelling in my view.

[winner69]

$3 beckons by month end - even more if thr profit upgrade comes

[couta1]

$3 beckons by month end - even more if thr profit upgrade comes I see Simply Wall Street reckon it was overvalued at $2.50, when they reviewed the stock in April. Also seems strange why 4 traders as of yesterday have not budged on their $2.23 target price. Not sure who is right on this one except it's certainly no longer a value buy at current levels, and even less so at $3.

[Beagle]

I see Simply Wall Street reckon it was overvalued at $2.50, when they reviewed the stock in April. Also seems strange why 4 traders as of yesterday have not budged on their $2.23 target price. Not sure who is right on this one except it's certainly no longer a value buy at current levels, and even less so at $3.

N.Z. analysts have a VERY poor record with AIR. As we saw with the recent investor day presentation most of the non Govt controlled stock is owned by overseas institutions.
They clearly think its worth far more than N.Z. analysts possibly because they're basing their valuation on international metrics. AIR is line ball fair value with QAN on a PE basis and that's after QAN have upgraded guidance whereas AIR haven't. As we saw this week there's very solid demand on the two new routes AIR opened up last year to South America and Houston. They're now running 9 Dreamliners with 4 more to come incl another leased one and six more options after that. Real bean counters aircraft they are, churn out heaps of cash. Discounted cash flow valuations are only as good as a whole bunch of guesses and assumptions that underpin their calculations.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92515638/almost-five-million-international-visitors-forecast-by-2023?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+13 +May+2017

[Beagle]

$3 beckons by month end - even more if thr profit upgrade comes

Air China scales back....AIR N.Z. expands...Jetstar confirms no plans to expand routes...last week Qatar threatened to throw their toys out of the cot if laptop's were banned.
Looks like management were bang on the money when they recently said we're passed the high tide of competition intensity and its impact on yield
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-china-airlines-scales-back-auckland-chch-more-americas-ng-202856?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%252520Last%252520Call%25253A%2525 20Weekend%252520Review%252520edition
If they can make over half a billion, (second highest ever) in the year in which intensity is at its most severe...