AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Pretty coy about what they going to do with that ever increasing huge pile of surplus cash in a few years time ....sort of mentioned reducing leverage but I think that was a diversionary tactic

My take, massive special dividends. I am only counting on 2 x 25c specials in the three years from FY20-FY22 but with ~ 80-90 cents per share free cash flow in each of those years it could be a lot higher and I know modandum thinks a series of 50 cents specials is on the cards.

On another subject funny how what goes around comes around... Outspoken CEO of Qatar Al Akbar gave AIR heaps when he was here recently http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/89180497/Qatar-chief-bags-Air-NZ-for-cancelling-agreement-that-would-have-connected-Kiwis-to-vast-network and now Qatar are really getting "it back in their face" by the truckload with many countries closing their airspace to Qatar flights. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/qatar-diplomatic-rift-live-blog/index.html

More good news http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ed96dc62/air-new-zealand-wins-four-contracts-with-us-navy-to-service-gas-turbines.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20New%20Zealand%20wins%20four%20c ontracts%20with%20US%20Navy%20to%20service%20gas%2 0turbines&utm_content=Air%20New%20Zealand%20wins%20four%20co ntracts%20with%20US%20Navy%20to%20service%20gas%20 turbines+CID_49f39dfb3adab9c1f0781e8dcf8f00b6&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleed96dc62air-new-zealand-wins-four-contracts-with-us-navy-to-service-gas-turbineshtml

[GTI]

My take, massive special dividends. I am only counting on 2 x 25c specials in the three years from FY20-FY22 but with ~ 80-90 cents per share free cash flow in each of those years it could be a lot higher and I know modandum thinks a series of 50 cents specials is on the cards.

On another subject funny how what goes around comes around... Outspoken CEO of Qatar Al Akbar gave AIR heaps when he was here recently http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/89180497/Qatar-chief-bags-Air-NZ-for-cancelling-agreement-that-would-have-connected-Kiwis-to-vast-network and now Qatar are really getting "it back in their face" by the truckload with many countries closing their airspace to Qatar flights. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/qatar-diplomatic-rift-live-blog/index.html

More good news http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ed96dc62/air-new-zealand-wins-four-contracts-with-us-navy-to-service-gas-turbines.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20New%20Zealand%20wins%20four%20c ontracts%20with%20US%20Navy%20to%20service%20gas%2 0turbines&utm_content=Air%20New%20Zealand%20wins%20four%20co ntracts%20with%20US%20Navy%20to%20service%20gas%20 turbines+CID_49f39dfb3adab9c1f0781e8dcf8f00b6&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleed96dc62air-new-zealand-wins-four-contracts-with-us-navy-to-service-gas-turbineshtml

Nice one, i want to buy more on weakness despite the naysayers...

[theace]

Going shoppping..... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11870587

[couta1]

Nice one, i want to buy more on weakness despite the naysayers... The majority of the negative talk on here during the time I averaged down to obtain my XOS holding was just trash and down ramping. Some of it even got personal, and that was also nonsense. PS-A bit dear for me right now but happy to bide my time.

[stoploss]

Gee Roger @ 300mio a shot , they might have to keep a bit in the bank for the down payments ?

[Beagle]

Nobody pays retail or anything like that Stoploss. Current bunch of Dreamliners cost them ~ $150m a pop. Regarding the 777X, 400 seats is difficult to fill for a small airline. I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade. I don't see much in the way of deposits leaving their account until at earliest, (in my opinion), 2023.
Interestingly at the briefing last week management were at pains to point out that this big hump in capex we're rapidly working our way through is something we're unlikely to see again. Ostensibly it was caused by the 4 1/2 year delays in the Dreamliner program. The 80-90 cps in free cash flow I'm referring too is based on their current business size. Obviously with the extra aircraft arriving as they finish their capex program and expanded services / frequencies to various points in their network as well as possible new routes between now and 2020 we could be looking at close to $1 share in free cash flow in the 3 years from FY20 - FY22. You think the Government might give them clear instructions on their special dividend expectations :)
P.S. All AIR are asking manufacturers for this year is a report on the detailed spec's of new aircraft types, currently in development and proposed...sort of on a scoping study for want of a better description.

[RTFQ]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/93391356/air-nz-wins-58m-deal-to-maintain-us-navy-turbines

[RTFQ]

[QUOTE=Roger;669140]Nobody pays retail or anything like that Stoploss. Current bunch of Dreamliners cost them ~ $150m a pop. Regarding the 777X, 400 seats is difficult to fill for a small airline. I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade. I don't see much in the way of deposits leaving their account until at earliest, (in my opinion), 2023.
Interestingly at the briefing last week management were at pains to point out that this big hump in capex we're rapidly working our way through is something we're unlikely to see again. Ostensibly it was caused by the 4 1/2 year delays in the Dreamliner program. The 80-90 cps in free cash flow I'm referring too is based on their current business size. Obviously with the extra aircraft arriving as they finish their capex program and expanded services / frequencies to various points in their network as well as possible new routes between now and 2020 we could be looking at close to $1 share in free cash flow in the 3 years from FY20 - FY22. You think the Government might give them clear instructions on their special dividend expectations :)
P.S. All AIR are asking manufacturers for this year is a report on the detailed spec's of new aircraft types, currently in development and proposed...sort of on a scoping study for want of a better

/QUOTE]

Quite right Roger. The only aircraft planned replacement is for the 772, 309 seats, and that's some years away.

[Baddarcy]

..... I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade...

I initially thought it seemed a no brainier to go for the 787-10, but the 787-10 looks like its range might be a bit limited at 6400m. Looks like it is about 1000 miles less than the 777-200ER. Unless Boeing can come up with an ER version of it i think Air NZ may end up with something more like the 777-8 which looks about the right size (between 777-200 and 777-300) and has a massive range 8000+.

[Beagle]

Quite right mate, 787-10 designed for shorter range and denser seating configuration and probably won't suit AIR. I'd be surprised if Boeing didn't come up with another stretched ER version.
To the best of my knowledge AIR still have 6 remaining options on Dreamliners, maybe these options are at very advantageous prices and they'll simply exercise them in due course and be content to use Houston as a hub and code share with partners elsewhere in the States. Sometimes you go through scoping studies only to find that what's right under your nose is the optimum solution.

[sb9]

Back to where we belong, the $3 mark....in between punters took profits by driving it up and pushing down...

[arc]

Back to where we belong, the $3 mark....in between punters took profits by driving it up and pushing down...

Personally I think you will find the High Frequency Trading robots scalped most of those profits.

[Beagle]

Average price target now $2.62 with five hold and one underperform from the analysts. Seems pretty fair and realistic, unlike the former $2.10.


Check back in a couple of days mate. I'm not sure all the brokers revised projections have filtered through to 4 Traders database yet.

I'd be very happy to buy more at $2.62 and I suspect you'd be very happy to be back on board at that price too. Time will tell...you never know you might get lucky.
Interesting article on sub-standard Latin American infrastructure possibly impeding further growth there. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/news/Air-New-Zealand-Latin-American-growth-hits-turbulence-24544288/

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/ $2.77 now for what it's worth.
I feel sorry for people who have to rely on these analysts. This time last week, 31 May 2017 they were telling their clients the shares are only worth $2.10 in twelve months time 31 May 2018, implying sub $2 now and that with the SP at $2.85 ! "Blind Freddy" (obviously the market is not nearly as blind as the analysts) could tell you after carefully studying the three lots of monthly operating stat's the company had released since late Feb that the environment had improved but not a single analyst took it upon themselves to upgrade the stock since late February and waited for management to spoon feed them the information on 1 June.
Moral of the story, serious investors should study each and every set of monthly operating stat's very carefully indeed. The market is now saying that analysts FY18 and Fy19 estimates are too conservative and I tend to agree. This hound is very happy to sit by the food bowl and enjoy regular dividend feeds until the feasting really begins in 2020 :D

[couta1]

As Arnie would say ,I'll be back to this food bowl at some point Roger, mean time I have more urgent food requirements of a Scaley nature.:D

[winner69]

Another close at $3 - good eh

Has to kick on from here doesn't it?

[winner69]

Headlines say oil prices tumble overnight

F18 looking better by the day for AIR

Will be the 2nd best year ever I reckon - so somewhere between $550m and $800m which suggests $600m plus

Surely $3 will look cheap in a few months time

[Beagle]

Headlines say oil prices tumble overnight

F18 looking better by the day for AIR

Will be the 2nd best year ever I reckon - so somewhere between $550m and $800m which suggests $600m plus

Surely $3 will look cheap in a few months time
I think as we come into 1H FY18 and lap the period in time when the 10 new airline's that started services last year in that period had their red hot opening specials running for months on end the yield comparatives will start to look good. One thing the company has shown us this year is their business model is extremely robust. This augers very well indeed for the future.

[winner69]

So $3 was just too tempting for senior manager Whittaker

Just cashing in his outrageous pay cheque - good on him

[Snow Leopard]

So $3 was just too tempting for senior manager Whittaker

Just cashing in his outrageous pay cheque - good on him

Good on him for selling into a over-ramped, over-valued share price. :t_up:

Would be nice to see it decisively break through that $3 cloud layer and reach the stratosphere though. :mellow:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

$1.78

[Beagle]

LOL doesn't that last part count as a ramp PT :)
QAN now clearly blown well past the $5 mark so maybe sometime soon the obviously more favorable sector dynamics will enable institutional investors to perceive fair value above $3, or maybe not, time will tell.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11870615

[sb9]

Hello, what's going on here...moving up in a hurry ;)

[couta1]

Hello, what's going on here...moving up in a hurry ;) Just following Qantas, both overpriced.:cool:

[winner69]

Just following Qantas, both overpriced.:cool:

maybe this is finally the big breakthrough - the 3 buck mark that is

no worries

[stoploss]

Just following Qantas, both overpriced.:cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEvQx-Ncbc

[couta1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEvQx-Ncbc Was waiting for a response, yet it's true re following Qantas. PS-If I bought some today, I'd be worried, and it takes a lot for that to happen.

[stoploss]

Was waiting for a response, yet it's true re following Qantas. PS-If I bought some today, I'd be worried, and it takes a lot for that to happen.

No skin off my nose , but I hope you can see by now I am only trying to protect newbies , or those with not so much investing nouse ....
By calling this as overpriced from 2.40 ish ( EX a big divvy as well) maybe you have scared a few not so savvy investors out of their position or others from getting on a decent trend ...
As your opinion has obviously been wrong no point to keep repeating it , I know a stuck clock is correct twice a day but these have to come off a long way to get anywhere near where you started saying they were overpriced .
Worried ? , imagine how easy it would be to sleep with a 70 cent gain on that xxos ( 3.05-2.35) oh I forgot the divvy lets call it 80 cents * 500,000 $ 400,000 extra under the mattress .........

[couta1]

No skin off my nose , but I hope you can see by now I am only trying to protect newbies , or those with not so much investing nouse ....
By calling this as overpriced from 2.40 ish ( EX a big divvy as well) maybe you have scared a few not so savvy investors out of their position or others from getting on a decent trend ...
As your opinion has obviously been wrong no point to keep repeating it , I know a stuck clock is correct twice a day but these have to come off a long way to get anywhere near where you started saying they were overpriced .
Worried ? , imagine how easy it would be to sleep with a 70 cent gain on that xxos ( 3.05-2.35) oh I forgot the divvy lets call it 80 cents * 500,000 $ 400,000 extra under the mattress ......... That's all historical stoploss, and as I've already posted there's no way I would have held much past $2.50ish, that's the reality of things. Worried refers to buying in around $3 levels and above, newbies would be wise to weigh up what's in it for them buying now, with considerable downside risk in a volatile cyclical.

[Eval]

Worried refers to buying in around $3 levels and above, newbies would be wise to weigh up what's in it for them buying now, with considerable downside risk in a volatile cyclical.

i brought some at $3.20 about 11months ago, nothing much to worry. In last 11 months received healthy 45cps (Divi FY16 35cps + 1H17 10cps) dividend and still holding my shares and has over $100k profits in AIR.

[couta1]

i brought some at $3.20 about 11months ago, nothing much to worry. In last 11 months received healthy 45cps (Divi FY16 35cps + 1H17 10cps) dividend and still holding my shares and has over $100k profits in AIR. These days with large holdings, I try and avoid long term large red arrows(Although I currently have one with SUM) and keep a short account with the market. If that means selling lower than the top by whatever amount, then so be it.

[GTI]

That's all historical stoploss, and as I've already posted there's no way I would have held much past $2.50ish, that's the reality of things. Worried refers to buying in around $3 levels and above, newbies would be wise to weigh up what's in it for them buying now, with considerable downside risk in a volatile cyclical.

Instead of a short term bet, i see Air NZ as a very reputable organization with a lot of confidence on a good CEO. With its current PE, i see this as a good chance to own the share of this company as a long term share holder.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/news/Air-New-Zealand-rage-growing-as-we-fly-more-24570377/

My goodness $5.35....QAN getting a bit "overweight" in more ways than one :) http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/forty-passengers-kicked-off-overweight-qantas-flight/ar-BBCA0zs?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

Gee whiz - a close of 307

That 300 mark should become support now - and at 307 a bit of wiggle room

Looks like 320 plus on the way - esp as the world seems so happy at the mo.

No worries

[winner69]

When we win the America's Cup punters will show a bit of short term euphoria and push the share price p 10 cents from wherever it is at the time.

[GTI]

When we win the America's Cup punters will show a bit of short term euphoria and push the share price p 10 cents from wherever it is at the time.
I might need to add more before its too late...😂

[couta1]

When we win the America's Cup punters will show a bit of short term euphoria and push the share price p 10 cents from wherever it is at the time. I don't think Aussie punters give a toss about us winning the America's Cup winner. Kiwi Insto's not keen on the stock but perhaps the win might give them some inspiration.

[winner69]

I don't think Aussie punters give a toss about us winning the America's Cup winner. Kiwi Insto's not keen on the stock but perhaps the win might give them some inspiration.

I don't think punters give a toss about the Cup anyway

[workingdad]

I will admit I made a mistake in selling half my holdings at the mid 2.30 range but took some gains at the time that I was happy enough to lock in and I wanted to hedge my bets after seeing so much volatility and no end of weakness, this perhaps made me 2nd guess my strategy and confidence in the SP which I believed to be worth considerably more however the market didn't agree for so long I made a decision to sell that half without backing myself more, I have been tempted to get rid of the other half a couple of times of late but its not a very big holding so not too worried either way and happy to see the SP continue to climb.

[BlackPeter]

I will admit I made a mistake in selling half my holdings at the mid 2.30 range but took some gains at the time that I was happy enough to lock in and I wanted to hedge my bets after seeing so much volatility and no end of weakness, this perhaps made me 2nd guess my strategy and confidence in the SP which I believed to be worth considerably more however the market didn't agree for so long I made a decision to sell that half without backing myself more, I have been tempted to get rid of the other half a couple of times of late but its not a very big holding so not too worried either way and happy to see the SP continue to climb.

No reason to beat yourself up. While obviously in this case the market decided to push the SP uphill after your sell - nobody can predict future share prices (no matter how smug some people sound with 20/20 hindsight) ... and much more important: Nobody ever went broke by locking in (taking) small gains (vs risking big losses).

[couta1]

No reason to beat yourself up. While obviously in this case the market decided to push the SP uphill after your sell - nobody can predict future share prices (no matter how smug some people sound with 20/20 hindsight) ... and much more important: Nobody ever went broke by locking in (taking) small gains (vs risking big losses). Very good post BP, a small meal enjoyed is better than the hope of a large meal that may never come.

[Beagle]

I don't think punters give a toss about the Cup anyway

I've been really enjoying it, better than Rugby in my humble opinion. No question it would give a really meaningful boost to the N.Z. economy, tourism and AIR if we win it. I think with the slight delay in new A320 and A321 Neo's reducing capex in FY18 by ~ $170m we might be looking at 12-13 cps final this year, (my previous thinking was 10 cps). Still expecting annual dividends fully imputed or around 20 cps across the cycle and special dividends of circa 25 cps per annum in FY20, FY21 and FY22 all fully imputed when the capex program is in a sharp lull. Dividend hounds are going to get very fat from all those dividends over the next five years. This hound remains extremely well positioned beside my food bowl of course :)
Speaking of nice boosts, I wonder how we get Sir John Key to join SUM other board ?

[couta1]

Please no Roger re Mr Key, I don't want a reason to sell my SUM shares.

[winner69]

Please no Roger re Mr Key, I don't want a reason to sell my SUM shares.


Agree with that mate

[Xerof]

Are we there yet?

Still strong and trending IMO - won't be selling at $3.10 after all sorry

[peat]

No reason to beat yourself up. While obviously in this case the market decided to push the SP uphill after your sell - nobody can predict future share prices (no matter how smug some people sound with 20/20 hindsight) ... and much more important: Nobody ever went broke by locking in (taking) small gains (vs risking big losses).

I definitely agree about the not beating yourself up bit. that's exactly what I was thinking. But I suggest you rethink your last statement.

Taking small gains while risking large losses is a bad strategy imo. akin to picking up dimes in front of steamroller is the phrase that describes.

[BlackPeter]

I definitely agree about the not beating yourself up bit. that's exactly what I was thinking. But I suggest you rethink your last statement.

Taking small gains while risking large losses is a bad strategy imo. akin to picking up dimes in front of steamroller is the phrase that describes.

I think that's what I wanted to express: better to take smaller gains than risking the lot. Thanks for helping me to translate the message ;)

[workingdad]

Thanks BP.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but at least I hedged my bets by keeping half...... I had tight stop loss' in place but they never kicked in so a bit of luck there too.

Its good to evaluate the decisions we make, buying in a down trend, selling in an up - these are the ones we can learn from and learning I am :)

[dobby41]

Speaking of nice boosts, I wonder how we get Sir John Key to join SUM other board ?

Are you trying to suggest that putting Sir Shonkey on the board has increased the share price?

[Beagle]

Thanks BP.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but at least I hedged my bets by keeping half...... I had tight stop loss' in place but they never kicked in so a bit of luck there too.

Its good to evaluate the decisions we make, buying in a down trend, selling in an up - these are the ones we can learn from and learning I am :)
Well done to you mate, many on here love to beat-up on AIR and have completely missed the rally of well over a dollar since late 2016 plus the 10 cent dividend paid in March 2017. Besides that you took the opportunity to avail yourself of an excellent deal on a new Volvo XC90 which looks like a superb bit of kit. Enjoy and be happy and celebrate your success mate.


Are you trying to suggest that putting Sir Shonkey on the board has increased the share price?
Like it or not the vast majority of shares outside of the Govt's 51% controlling shareholding are owned by overseas institutions most of whom would probably be well aware of John Key's commercial track record and record of governance while he was PM. His international contacts will be valuable to AIR. Noticed how buyers have been basically ignoring local analysts valuations lately ?
As recently as two weeks ago the average analyst 12 month target price was only $2.10 and the SP was trading at $2.85. Who do you think has been pushing up the SP ?, certainly not retail investors who only own 4% of the shares that's for sure ! The day his appointment was announced the SP popped (from memory), about 8 cents.
Regardless of your political leanings and / or opinion of him, in my opinion its clear his appointment has been well received by overseas institutional holders.

[sb9]

Are we there yet?

Still strong and trending IMO - won't be selling at $3.10 after all sorry

Past that mark now...higher highs currently 3.115...

[couta1]

Past that mark now...higher highs currently 3.115... Have they invented the bubble craft yet? Sorry couldn't resist, better go and do SUM work, getting behind a bit.

[sb9]

Have they invented the bubble craft yet? Sorry couldn't resist, better go and do SUM work, getting behind a bit.

Whatever it is, happy with my more than 50% capital gain excl those juicy special and normal divvies.

[Zaphod]

Have reduced my holding a bit, due to being overweight and the recent gains in SP. I'm certainly still confident in the company's ability to perform for the foreseeable future though.

[Bobdn]

Still holding mine. I sold all my HBL shares for $1.54 to buy AIR at 2.19 to take advantage of the 35 cent dividend.

I hated selling HBL but appears to have worked out ok (at this point in time). Could have just as easily gone the other way :)

Kind of wish AIR wasn't rising so quickly because now "sell" thoughts are creeping in and this was supposed to be a nice little earner for the next 5 years or so.

[winner69]

Wasn't buying sub $2 not that long ago good

At this rate could be doubling me money in less than a year (including dividends)

No worries

[Beagle]

Still holding mine. I sold all my HBL shares for $1.54 to buy AIR at 2.19 to take advantage of the 35 cent dividend.

I hated selling HBL but appears to have worked out ok (at this point in time). Could have just as easily gone the other way :)

Kind of wish AIR wasn't rising so quickly because now "sell" thoughts are creeping in and this was supposed to be a nice little earner for the next 5 years or so.

I'm find it very relaxing just focusing of my medium term, (5 year) investment case of 5 times 20 cps annual fully imputed dividends and 3 x 25 cps special dividends in FY20-FY22 when there's that massive multi year rest from capex...more than happy to stick with it and let the SP find its own level wherever that may be. I think there's about $1.75, possibly as much as $2.00 in dividends coming back over the next five years so whether its $2.00, $3.00 or even $4.00 with a dividend yield outlook like that what does it really matter :)
Remember there's probably about 90-100 cps free cash flow per annum in those years when there's next to no capex so 25 cps average special is pretty conservative on top of a 20 cps annual dividend in my opinion. The risk is to the upside to that for those not holding :)

[winner69]

Beagle - hate your new name

It's associated with DOG stocks - and bound to bring bad fortune

[stoploss]

Beagle - hate your new name

It's associated with DOG stocks - and bound to bring bad fortune

Bit like a dodgy backdoor listing that name change :)

[Eval]

Whatever individuals, Analysts think.....

IMO AIR future is very bright,

- Top class management and business model
- New 19+ entrance, higher fuel price then fy16 and still on track to 2nd best profits in AIR history
- CAPEX are failing in 2-3 years
- John Key aka Sir is on-board, may have hated as PM but he is business Ace and ex.investor banker :cool:

[Beagle]

Beagle - hate your new name

It's associated with DOG stocks - and bound to bring bad fortune

Very likeable animals with a relentless enthusiasm for sniffing out trouble and opportunities for food.
Stoploss... Dog-gone-it, there's no pleasing everyone so you might as well please yourself :)
No point hounding me about it, for reasons I am not at liberty to go into the cute canine pseudonym is here to stay.

[peat]

whats the estimate of the possible cost for the Aussie collusion charges.
I reckon about $20m fine could be placed on them.

[Beagle]

$10m, less than 1 cent per share in NTA.

[winner69]

Jeez, everybody seems to want to buy AIR shares these days

Maybe even NZ instos Couts - just in case they feel left out.

[EJK]

Jeez, everybody seems to want to buy AIR shares these days

Maybe even NZ instos Couts - just in case they feel left out.

I'd be surprised if nobody hasn't yet.

Couple of weekends ago I was on a flight to Queenstown from Christchurch. Due to poor weather our flight was diverted to Invercargill airport. Yeah, the bottom of NZ. Everybody on-board was surprised for sure. But Air NZ managed the situation by providing a shuttle bus directly all the way to Queenstown Airport, which was already waiting for us at the terminal by the time we got off the plane, with snacks and water provided. Bus left the airport in less than 15 minutes. Everything went smooth like fire alarm practice we do every occasion in our office. Eventually we arrived in Queenstown Airport four hours past initial scheduled time and everybody went on their way as if nothing happened.

I should've been frustrated due to missing an important breakfast meeting that day but I was more surprised by the level of their risk management and customer services. Nobody complained nor said anything wrong about their service that flight. Level of their customer service was beyond expectation and I don't see much like that in NZ.

Now, if Jetstar was in the same situation...

[Baa_Baa]

So $3 was just too tempting for senior manager Whittaker

Just cashing in his outrageous pay cheque - good on him

Usually a good sign for the SP to be topping out when the insiders cash up, but looks like he got it wrong this time, breakout to new highs! Could have built another few square meters on the new deck if he'd only waited a few more days.
:sleep:

[Arbroath]

I have owned AIR for some time and enjoyed a lot of dividends but sold out today - just think the valuation is getting too rich and sentiment about as positive as it can be - time will tell but happy to let others own up here

[Beagle]

Very comfortable at FL320 in this extremely well managed company and looking forward to the next meal service :)

[couta1]

Jeez, everybody seems to want to buy AIR shares these days

Maybe even NZ instos Couts - just in case they feel left out. NZ Instos didn't want mine at $2.32, so doubt they would touch them with the length of a couple of dreamliners now. Hey Beagle, just to please winner, you could always add Boy after Beagle, mind you that might have a criminal leaning,and we couldn't have any corrupt accountants on here now could we.

[Marilyn Munroe]

I'd be surprised if nobody hasn't yet.

Couple of weekends ago I was on a flight to Queenstown from Christchurch. Due to poor weather our flight was diverted to Invercargill airport. Yeah, the bottom of NZ. Everybody on-board was surprised for sure. But Air NZ managed the situation by providing a shuttle bus directly all the way to Queenstown Airport, which was already waiting for us at the terminal by the time we got off the plane, with snacks and water provided. Bus left the airport in less than 15 minutes. Everything went smooth like fire alarm practice we do every occasion in our office. Eventually we arrived in Queenstown Airport four hours past initial scheduled time and everybody went on their way as if nothing happened.

I should've been frustrated due to missing an important breakfast meeting that day but I was more surprised by the level of their risk management and customer services. Nobody complained nor said anything wrong about their service that flight. Level of their customer service was beyond expectation and I don't see much like that in NZ.


Nobody complained. Maybe the passengers were so used to the omni-shambles other airlines seem to turn flight cancellations and diversions into they were gobsmacked to find an airline handling this with speed an efficiency.

The International Brotherhood of Couldn't Give a Toss Airlines won't be happy with Cullen Airlines showing them up like this.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Probably AIR will get a speeding ticket after all this action

We are in full compliance of our disclosure obligations - we showed a cute video and told punters to buckle themselves for the ride of their life so no surprises here.


We also told them about the oxygen and the brace position should the share price hit turbulence

[GTI]

I have owned AIR for some time and enjoyed a lot of dividends but sold out today - just think the valuation is getting too rich and sentiment about as positive as it can be - time will tell but happy to let others own up here

I am keen to buy more for the long term, I do see a lot of upsides in this company.

[Eval]

Good for the Airlines, Cheaper Oil, 2018 outlook more brighter for the Airliners:)

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/14/news/economy/oil-glut-iea-2018-opec/index.html
(http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/14/news/economy/oil-glut-iea-2018-opec/index.html)
"Whatever it takes: The International Energy Agency published its first look at 2018 on Wednesday, and the report contains some very bad news for OPEC.
OPEC has been trying for months to eliminate a glut of excess supply that has kept prices from rising. The cartel has pledged to do "whatever it takes."
But its efforts have been blunted by a massive boom in production by U.S. shale operators. The IEA said Wednesday that the trend is likely to continue into next year, with production by non-OPEC nations growing more quickly than global demand.
"'Whatever it takes' might be the mantra, but the current form of 'whatever' is not having as quick an impact as expected," the IEA said.
U.S. crude oil futures dropped 1.4% to trade at $45.84 after the report was released."


Oil drops to 7-month low, (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-under-pressure-on-worries-data-will-confirm-rising-us-stockpiles-2017-06-14?dist=markets)

[Tweak]

Sharetrader newbie.

I have been reading this forum for a few months, love reading everyones opinions. Trying to learning as I go. Sold 1/3 of my AIR shares today at $3.15. Happy with the price, but I suppose what's the point in selling if I don't have anything lined up to buy?

[GTI]

Sharetrader newbie.

I have been reading this forum for a few months, love reading everyones opinions. Trying to learning as I go. Sold 1/3 of my AIR shares today at $3.15. Happy with the price, but I suppose what's the point in selling if I don't have anything lined up to buy?

How long would you hold the investment for?

[babymonster]

Sharetrader newbie.

I have been reading this forum for a few months, love reading everyones opinions. Trying to learning as I go. Sold 1/3 of my AIR shares today at $3.15. Happy with the price, but I suppose what's the point in selling if I don't have anything lined up to buy?

Same here, sold some at 3.01 but apart from waiting to buy ebo, nothing to buy. Anyone has any ideas? I have thl Rym already.

[babymonster]

air PE is still under 10 so it's not expensive in that sense

[couta1]

air PE is still under 10 so it's not expensive in that sense A lot of others factors to consider with a volatile cyclical. PS-There are SUM other good stocks worth buying, along with some others on the NZX, depending on what result you want from the stocks you buy.

[winner69]

A lot of others factors to consider with a volatile cyclical. PS-There are SUM other good stocks worth buying, along with some others on the NZX, depending on what result you want from the stocks you buy.

AIR on a PE seen as cheap .... couts, did you notice SUM other company on a PE of 7.1

That's really 'cheap' eh

[Benny1]

Sold mine yesterday for $3.185..couldn't resist! Hope to be back in again for the Dividend. ..still like the company tho!
I might wait until after the NZShareholders meeting in AKL on Wednesday night..already own some THL and would like more..and like the look of TRA so will enjoy listening to the CEO's before deciding.

[Beagle]

AIR have made steady ongoing improvements in their business model and what we've seen this year which is brand new evidence is their model is now incredibly resilient and highly profitable even in the face of a substantially changed competitive environment. This gives a LOT of confidence looking into the future.

Nobody can reliably tell you where we are in the business cycle. This year I believe we are looking at ~ $575m before tax giving approx. $414m after tax or ~ 37 cps.
The ten year average PE is 11. Pure cyclical companies with no earnings growth should trade on a PE of 10. It is clear that there is some ongoing growth across business cycles, IATA for instance are forecasting ongoing international passenger growth of 5% per annum. I believe in that context a PE of 11 is very reasonable. Further, we live in an ultra low interest rate so adding another 1 multiple for that seems reasonable. A PE of 12 and EPS of 37 cps gives $4.44. (This assumes AIR is currently trading in an operating environment at the mid point of the cycle).

Its clear we're seeing an improving yield environment and competitors are behaving in a generally more rational manner. As I mentioned several times last year, opening specials by new competitors don't last indefinitely so the yield outlook as we lap the period of time in 1H FY17 when ten new competitors were running opening specials for months on end, looks like improving further.. I think the outlook for FY18 and beyond is very sound. N.Z. is a very, very safe destination for tourists and I expect this factor will become increasingly important in the years ahead. I think the outlook as they complete their capex program, fly one of the youngest and from an operational perspective one of the most streamlined fleets in the world and continue to drive efficiencies in their business model and grow in a disciplined manner in line with demand growth, is very bright indeed.

[Tweak]

How long would you hold the investment for?

For AIR looking at 5+ years. Really liking their divi.

[dagdaniel1]

I bought in a 2.97, a day after the earnings announcement. Just sold out today for 3.185, for a tidy profit. Thinking that we might've hit the top for now.

[Zaphod]

A few cuts in Status Points and Airpoint Dollars in the works from 1 July, especially for regional travellers. The minimum SP earn on regional routes has been cut from 8SP to 4SP.

[GTI]

For AIR looking at 5+ years. Really liking their divi.

Keep the remaining for dividend play then👍

[Joshuatree]

Like your shorting dag; thats some maths.ps you can edit your post if you weren't shorting:mad ;:;)

[dagdaniel1]

Like your shorting dag; thats some maths.ps you can edit your post if you weren't shorting:mad ;:;)

Haha oops, edited it now.

[Poet]

I got itchy fingers too, so sold out at $3.195 yesterday.
I hope I won't regret that move. I've had most of my holding since $1.25 four years ago so it's been a great performer for me. Best of luck to those still holding.

[winner69]

from australia

After a decade of underperformance and a stunning turnaround over the last three years, Qantas’ stock price has finally hit the $5.45 price that former chair Margaret Jackson said shareholders would be stupid to reject (when somebody tried to buy them)


Wow - and AIR reaching towards new highs (for 15 or so years) ....AIRlines in favour eh

[Xerof]

Yes, even bigboy Buffett who hates airlines now loves airlines. I will also disclose that I sold out yesterday, but only to be poised for entry into another entity, a world away from airlines but just as turbulent.

[Joshuatree]

USA AIRLINE STOCKS HEALTHY TOO Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/CScjRGPjZTKXSS8Q4n2M9A/sGUxCFrd763LeIAbNJ8KgO6Q)

Great cycle to be in; will follow the trend to the bend ,at the end.

[Eval]

rally at closing. must be some Instos doesn't want to miss out the bargain :cool:

8911

[Baa_Baa]

Should be an interesting week, see if AIR can break out from this historical 3.xx turning point. Looking very overbought on the indicators, but who knows eh, maybe this is the big one up up and awaaayyyyy.

Check stops.
BAA

[Raz]

Should be an interesting week, see if AIR can break out from this historical 3.xx turning point. Looking very overbought on the indicators, but who knows eh, maybe this is the big one up up and awaaayyyyy.

Check stops.
BAA

Interesting what C Luxton said a couple of weeks ago:

Christopher Luxon said Emirates' suspension of the A380 from July 13 wasn't a surprise and a "rational" to a fall in demand.

"I think a lot of airlines are doing it quite tough at the moment it's part of the cycle. A good year leads to overcapacity and then a price squeeze as airlines battle to fill planes," he said.

I agree with him... on my last couple of travel cycles to Europe for Board meetings there has been a drop off in passengers on Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa flights I have been on. Nice to have more seats to myself while I travel however sixty people on an A380 an't ideal. Good to travel with however not where I would invest.

Not AIR load factors in question here at this time however believe only a matter of time before we get negative headlines in the industry. Your guess where that will take the share price.

For this reason alone I cleared my trading share portfolio on Friday. Just investment parcel now on hand which was purchased at 1.87 average price.

Dividend play with decent buffer for share volatility although given the margin sitting on may just as well cash up the lot...

[Eval]

Not AIR load factors in question here at this time however believe only a matter of time before we get negative headlines in the industry. Your guess where that will take the share price.


the risk is in every industry and not just the airlines.

even though air travel on a commercial flight may continue to be a frustrating endeavor, there's little reason to expect that people will stop flying anytime soon.

[janner]

the risk is in every industry and not just the airlines.

even though air travel on a commercial flight may continue to be a frustrating endeavor, there's little reason to expect that people will stop flying anytime soon.

Cough.. Cough... Cough...

[Eval]

Cough.. Cough... Cough...

time will tell...watch this space

[Beagle]

Very small bit of anecdotal evidence will not scare me off Raz. April stat's for AIR were very strong and May will be out shortly. Personally, I can totally understand why there might be a fall off in demand for travel to Europe at this point. Fortunately we live a long way from the chaos and mayhem in safe little old N.Z., soon to be the home of the America's cup again :t_up: Team New Zealand now red hot favorites, ($1.16 on the N.Z. TAB), with the bookies to bring the old mug home. Meanwhile very strong tourism and immigration stat's continue to provide strong tailwinds for AIR.

[couta1]

Extremely busy domestic year for Air this year, with the mega star Adele, the world masters games and the Lions tour, next year will be significantly quieter on the domestic front than the current one. There's always things going on but these three events were extrodinary in their magnitude.

[Beagle]

Extremely busy domestic year for Air this year, with the mega star Adele, the world masters games and the Lions tour, next year will be significantly quieter on the domestic front than the current one. There's always things going on but these three events were extrodinary in their magnitude.

At this stage every year there's another 70,000 immigrants living here...all wanting to travel and see their new home and invite their friends and family to come and visit them. This population growth is something that hasn't been discussed much before on this thread in terms of being one of the tailwinds driving ongoing demand growth.

[Meextr]

While I agree with you I don't imagine there were that many flying in for Adele. To be honest I would be more likely to fly out.

[Joshuatree]

Heehee thats double whammy good for AIR though Meextr. Will keep an eye on AIR's place in the cycle; still good atm imo but thanks for your observations in the USA Raz. Sounds like you clock up a hell of a lot of fly time, not my idea of fun.

[couta1]

Will watch and wait to see which stock I load up on for the upcoming divvy season, Air is one of 3 possibilities Ive lined up, but the NZX looks well and truly fully priced at the moment other than a few or SUM. Might get a nice correction over the next month or so, looks overdue to me, just need some nutter to file a few missiles to speed things up a bit.

[Eval]

one large volumes transaction

316
1,500,000
11:42

[Baddarcy]

While I agree with you I don't imagine there were that many flying in for Adele. To be honest I would be more likely to fly out.

Yes as would i !, however they did, see the below. They have also announced something similar for Ed Sheeran in Dunedin.

-----

Air New Zealand says ‘Hello’ to Adele fans
Air New Zealand has announced more than 80 extra flights to and from Auckland to transport Adele fans from throughout the country to see the global superstar perform her first New Zealand tour.
25 November 2016
The airline will operate extra services between Auckland and Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin and Queenstown in the days leading up and following the singer’s sold-out shows in March 2016.

In an effort to move as many fans as possible, Air New Zealand will use one of its 312 seat Boeing 777-200 aircraft normally dedicated to international routes on some Christchurch-Auckland services, with the rest operated by the A320 fleet.

Air New Zealand Regional GM Direct & Market Development Jeremy O’Brien says, “The extra flights will provide 15,000 more seats for Adele fans who’ve been lucky enough to secure tickets. It’s clear Adele has captivated Kiwi audiences and we’re looking forward to welcoming her fans on board.”

The extra flights go on sale this afternoon.

Ends

Issued by Air New Zealand Public Affairs ph +64 21 747 320

[sb9]

one large volumes transaction

316

1,500,000

11:42





Almost 2.2 mln shares traded so far and its not even midday yet.

[Raz]

At this stage every year there's another 70,000 immigrants living here...all wanting to travel and see their new home and invite their friends and family to come and visit them. This population growth is something that hasn't been discussed much before on this thread in terms of being one of the tailwinds driving ongoing demand growth.

Thats your theory..good luck with that..all the students will not be going around for starters. Everything I'm seeing currently is economic growth running out of juice. If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist. Not surprised profit taking going down now.

[Raz]

Will watch and wait to see which stock I load up on for the upcoming divvy season, Air is one of 3 possibilities Ive lined up, but the NZX looks well and truly fully priced at the moment other than a few or SUM. Might get a nice correction over the next month or so, looks overdue to me, just need some nutter to file a few missiles to speed things up a bit.

I agree... a lot more talk of cash out in the past week and waiting for a reset.

[Beagle]

Thats your theory..good luck with that..all the students will not be going around for starters. Everything I'm seeing currently is economic growth running out of juice. If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist. Not surprised profit taking going down now.

Holding at current price for long term dividend yield, never mentioned I was buying at this level.

[Raz]

Holding at current price for long term dividend yield, never mentioned I was buying at this level.

never mentioned that you were...

[Beagle]

If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist Implied in post #11363 above. AIR's most recent operating stat's do not suggest any slowdown is imminent, in fact quite the opposite. May's stat's out shortly will provide some more factual basis for consideration. Opinion, conjecture and anecdotal observation of a few flights is one thing, operational flight stat's are quite another. (This debate reminds me a bit of people in another thread saying real estate is about to fall off the edge of a cliff but the stat's keep coming out factually supporting at a national level a stable and rising house price trend).

I think its clear why some people want to take profits at this level as historically the SP has struggled to break $3.20 but I remain confident management are executing a very sound business plan and the underlying earnings are very supportive of the SP at this level based on long term PE averages.

[GTI]

Implied in post #11363 above. AIR's most recent operating stat's do not suggest any slowdown is imminent, in fact quite the opposite. May's stat's out shortly will provide some more factual basis for consideration. Opinion, conjecture and anecdotal observation of a few flights is one thing, operational flight stat's are quite another. (This debate reminds me a bit of people in another thread saying real estate is about to fall off the edge of a cliff but the stat's keep coming out factually supporting at a national level a stable and rising house price trend).

I think its clear why some people want to take profits at this level as historically the SP has struggled to break $3.20 but I remain confident management are executing a very sound business plan and the underlying earnings are very supportive of the SP at this level based on long term PE averages.

I did buy close to $3 and i am thinking to buy more for long term investment. Not sure if this is right decision but i think Air is a reputable company with sound management team.

[Raz]

Implied in post #11363 above. AIR's most recent operating stat's do not suggest any slowdown is imminent, in fact quite the opposite. May's stat's out shortly will provide some more factual basis for consideration. Opinion, conjecture and anecdotal observation of a few flights is one thing, operational flight stat's are quite another. (This debate reminds me a bit of people in another thread saying real estate is about to fall off the edge of a cliff but the stat's keep coming out factually supporting at a national level a stable and rising house price trend).

I think its clear why some people want to take profits at this level as historically the SP has struggled to break $3.20 but I remain confident management are executing a very sound business plan and the underlying earnings are very supportive of the SP at this level based on long term PE averages.

Suggest you read yesterdays post again. Implied I would not agree with.

Now to get back to my original comment yesterday...I actually highlighted that it was not a suggestion about AIR operating stats showing a sign of deteriorating however I can see sentiment to the industry changing through media comments flowing from larger players struggling in this part of the cycle. Sentiment to the sector drives matters a great deal in the recent past with AIR share price....remember if you were following Jan last year you will note I mentioned the same line of thought concerning competition heating up for AIR. As it has proven to be the case over time AIR has managed this well.... although sentiment resulted in the share price cliff diving. Possibly a little more explanation will allow you to actual get my original post yesterday. Your comments suggest you did not. In summary my post was all about sentiment not FA or TA.

[Eval]

I did buy close to $3 and i am thinking to buy more for long term investment. Not sure if this is right decision but i think Air is a reputable company with sound management team.

Just topped up another 30k volumes @3.19 today. Hold over 100k volumes in AIR now.

- Great management, business model, can knock out any competitions in the path....

forums thread are for downramping/upramping, Go with your guts and some research :)

[Raz]

I did buy close to $3 and i am thinking to buy more for long term investment. Not sure if this is right decision but i think Air is a reputable company with sound management team.

You may well be right however my point is sentiment has overridden a reputable company and sound management company share price time and again..simple defied FA common sense many times before and specifically with this share in recent history. Ask yourself what has changed? Is this the best share to hold in this point of the cycle for what you seek?

Many have been suggesting they are more compelling other options...

Eval all the best with some of the share I sold today:-)

[couta1]

Just topped up another 30k volumes @3.19 today. Hold over 100k volumes in AIR now.

- Great management, business model, can knock out any competitions in the path.... Great as you say, but your buying at a very lofty price and excluding specials, the dividend yield is now only average. I will only buy the stock below $3.

[Eval]

Eval all the best with some of the share I sold today:-)

No need best luck when you invest in sound company like AIR but thanks..... time will tell :cool:. The rainy clouds are over for AIR....now on its a full sunshine.

[777]

Special dividends are just that. Special. If regularly paid they are not special. My guess is you will see an increase in regular dividend this year and possibly next year, all going well, but no special dividend in the foreseeable future. Time will tell.

[couta1]

No need best luck when you invest in sound company like AIR but thanks..... time will tell :cool:. The rainy clouds are over for AIR....now on its a full sunshine. Send that quote to Tui for a billboard.:D

[winner69]

Send that quote to Tui for a billboard.:D

Hey couts, please don't temper the exuberance of youth (?). Let them have their fun.

Some of us need this enthusiasm to drive the share price up to 350 ...then 400

The world is a happy place at the moment so no worries

[janner]

At this stage every year there's another 70,000 immigrants living here...all wanting to travel and see their new home and invite their friends and family to come and visit them. This population growth is something that hasn't been discussed much before on this thread in terms of being one of the tailwinds driving ongoing demand growth.

That is 70,000 one way tickets.. Flew out on 12/7/17 Hong Kong Air at a very good price . About 50% filled..

[winner69]

That is 70,000 one way tickets.. Flew out on 12/7/17 Hong Kong Air at a very good price . About 50% filled..

Hey janner - what's the AIR share price going to be on 12/7/17 ?

[janner]

Hey janner - what's the AIR share price going to be on 12/7/17 ?

Oooops The mountain air here I making me giddy.. 12/6/17

[Raz]

Oooops The mountain air here I making me giddy.. 12/6/17

Trust you are having a great trip. So no AIR flights for you....

[janner]

Trust you are having a great trip. So no AIR flights for you....

AIR flights are always in my calculation.. However being mean as cats pee ( and some say twice as nasty )..
My flights are always booked for the lowest and fastest.. Some money expended not to hang around airports just for the love of it..
Usually AIR is only on my connection for the return flights.. And yes .. The service and pleasant atmosphere of AIR is very noticeable..
Unexplainable.. Just " Kiwi ". :-))

No complaint about HONG KONG AIR. Turkish was the connection ( full) and the next connection (full).
Plain simple no frills..
Definitely stay away from Pakistan Airways ( dislike strap hanging .. ) Hold very tight please Ding Ding. ..

Not on a trip... A shift of residence for a few months.. Dnipropetrovsk in a couple of weeks time.. Air the apartment kick the Lada into life.. On the road again :-)))

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/302798
Very happy with those numbers. Yields continue to firm very nicely coming in from a YTD decline of 5.9% last month to 5.4% this month. Yields must have been very strong in May to move the YTD, (11 months stat's) that much. Demand looks solid considering the shoulder season time of year. CASK will be coming down nicely with fleet modernization / streamlining of aircraft type and lower than expected fuel prices which along with the better yields bodes well for a full year profit surprise. Very happy to hold even at the current price. PE is 8.9 based on 36 cps after tax, ($575m before tax, my estimate) well below the 10 year average of 11.

[Raz]

They are good numbers, as expected. A good operator in what is a poorly run industry.

See the share price at a cross roads, if it dips suspect many will have tight stop loss in place to book the recent gains...why give away what is essence equivalent to a few years of dividends now.

Or will be break to new levels. Seems fully priced unless FME & dividend is revised upwards.

Wonder if the have projected excess domestic capacity in the second half of the year. Just sorted 14 domestic bookings over the past week for the second six months of this year and paid the same if not less than last year for similar bookings, surprised. Can't do that on international flights with AIR.

[Beagle]

Fully priced relative to which other airlines Raz ?

[Eval]

Raz, you sold your volumes to me yesterday so you can relax now :) and we will enjoy the smooth ride from now on :cool:

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/302798
Very happy with those numbers. Yields continue to firm very nicely coming in from a YTD decline of 5.9% last month to 5.4% this month. Yields must have been very strong in May to move the YTD, (11 months stat's) that much. Demand looks solid considering the shoulder season time of year. CASK will be coming down nicely with fleet modernization / streamlining of aircraft type and lower than expected fuel prices which along with the better yields bodes well for a full year profit surprise. Very happy to hold even at the current price. PE is 8.9 based on 36 cps after tax, ($575m before tax, my estimate) well below the 10 year average of 11.

Yep, numbers (in isolation) look good. However - they describe the past. As well - don't they include the trickledown effect of one-offs like the Lions tour? How long do you expect this effect to continue?

What is happening afterwards if & when tourism goes down? Pommies have less money due to brexiting their pound, tourists in general learn about a stretched infrastructure in New Zealand as well as about the bad press tourists as well as immigrants often get here (no matter whether they are blamed for traffic incidents, for pollution or for pushing up property prices). All this does not go unnoticed in other parts of the world, and neither do our environmental problems ("wadeable" rivers - lol).

Tourism streams into the other direction (to Europe) might drop somewhat as well - nearly daily news about new terror attacks might discourage some people ...?

Good luck to all holders. Personally I would at current SP levels probably consider to take some money off the table, but that's just me ...

[Eval]

Yep, numbers (in isolation) look good. However - they describe the past. As well - don't they include the trickledown effect of one-offs like the Lions tour? How long do you expect this effect to continue?

What is happening afterwards if & when tourism goes down? Pommies have less money due to brexiting their pound, tourists in general learn about a stretched infrastructure in New Zealand as well as about the bad press tourists as well as immigrants often get here (no matter whether they are blamed for traffic incidents, for pollution or for pushing up property prices). All this does not go unnoticed in other parts of the world, and neither do our environmental problems ("wadeable" rivers - lol).

Tourism streams into the other direction (to Europe) might drop somewhat as well - nearly daily news about new terror attacks might discourage some people ...?

Good luck to all holders. Personally I would at current SP levels probably consider to take some money off the table, but that's just me ...

Uncertainty is any industry which we can't predict. take a example A2Milk was dump at below $2.20 in Jan-Feb this year due to fear of Chinese regulation change and look at todays share price $4.13 all time high.

[couta1]

Uncertainty is any industry which we can't predict. take a example A2Milk was dump at below $2.20 in Jan-Feb this year due to fear of Chinese regulation change and look at todays share price $4.13 all time high. No room to move with the current share price, but no worries our Aussie mates buy on hype alone.

[Beagle]

Its the most recent past we have stat's for BP. I think quite a few people aren't understanding how strong current yields are and will get a real surprise when July stat's for the new year (which are unpolluted by data by 1H FY17 stat's when yields were very low), come out relative to July 2016. Management were very confident on the yield and demand front at their recent investor day briefing. I for one am more than happy to follow management guidance and the operating statistics.
FY17 PE QAN 10.6, AIR 8.9 and that's before we start talking about the hound's favorite subject, juicy fully imputed dividends and the prospect of huge fully imputed specials down the track a bit, (Management investor day comment "We have truck loads of imputation credits", make of that what you will)...absolutely no comparison between QAN's dividends for which we can't claim their franking credits and AIR's !

[Meextr]

No room to move with the current share price, but no worries our Aussie mates buy on hype alone. and there will be plenty of that if we win America's Cup and when John Key takes up his role on the board in September.

[Raz]

Raz, you sold your volumes to me yesterday so you can relax now :) and we will enjoy the smooth ride from now on :cool:

I sold part of my shares yesterday, like I sold 200,000 late last week..still have a few more on hand...

[dobby41]

and there will be plenty of that if we win America's Cup and when John Key takes up his role on the board in September.

JK is not on the board yet?
Roger (Beagle) was attributing all sorts of gains to his influence.

[Meextr]

JK is not on the board yet?
Roger (Beagle) was attributing all sorts of gains to his influence. It was reported as starting 1st September.

[Raz]

JK is not on the board yet?
Roger (Beagle) was attributing all sorts of gains to his influence.

To be fair..I can recall forum comments on sentiment moving the SP up on the announcement..thats all ok with these guys if it is positive sentiment..:-)

[couta1]

It was reported as starting 1st September. The later the better.

[winner69]

Pushing into the mid 320's .... it'll get there ....and then 330's

No worries methinks

Especially if the America's Cup is won this weekend and the ABs thrash the Lions - we'll be so so happy that 340 could even be on the cards

What's euphoria

[couta1]

Pushing into the mid 320's .... it'll get there ....and then 330's

No worries methinks

Especially if the America's Cup is won this weekend and the ABs thrash the Lions - we'll be so so happy that 340 could even be on the cards

What's euphoria We need a bit more Euphoria over at planet SUM winner, in order to get to your $7 target price.

[winner69]

We need a bit more Euphoria over at planet SUM winner, in order to get to your $7 target price.

need to get eval and his mates over to SUM planet

Agree, probably better off over there anyway

[Raz]

need to get eval and his mates over to SUM planet

Agree, probably better off over there anyway

eval has shown his hand...makes one a little ineffective.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/302798
Very happy with those numbers. Yields continue to firm very nicely coming in from a YTD decline of 5.9% last month to 5.4% this month. Yields must have been very strong in May to move the YTD, (11 months stat's) that much. ........

That 5.4% YTD you quoted is so much improved from the 7.9% at December it's amazing.

That's some turnaround - H2 must be going to be a boomer ...guidenace more than $525m - c'mon guys (as couts says pass me a TUI)

[babymonster]

330 is not far away...

[couta1]

330 is not far away... The Aussies will do it, after all they pushed Qantas to a high of $5.64, with a 2% ish divvy yield.:confused: :eek2:

[777]

330 is not far away...

The A330 is an old design now so not likely. Perhaps the A350.

(Sorry. Could not let that pass.)

[Beagle]

787 has a nice numerical look to it :D...yes I am pulling some people's leg putting that number out there.

[Joshuatree]

Seriously , I've heard a retroject is coming; an Austen A30 combined with Red Bull :t_up:

[winner69]

Seriously , I've heard a retroject is coming; an Austen A30 combined with Red Bull :t_up:

I think Jane only had a horse and cart

[winner69]

That 5.4% YTD you quoted is so much improved from the 7.9% at December it's amazing.

That's some turnaround - H2 must be going to be a boomer ...guidenace more than $525m - c'mon guys (as couts says pass me a TUI)

Hey Beagle

If this keeps up for June H2 passenger revenue will be slightly more than last year.

As H1 revenues were down that's a FANTASTIC effort

How shiny is Chris's halo now -

[GTI]

330 is not far away...

So true, its 328 now, might be over 330 soon..

[GTI]

You may well be right however my point is sentiment has overridden a reputable company and sound management company share price time and again..simple defied FA common sense many times before and specifically with this share in recent history. Ask yourself what has changed? Is this the best share to hold in this point of the cycle for what you seek?

Many have been suggesting they are more compelling other options...

Eval all the best with some of the share I sold today:-)

Its 328 now...do we still have doubt Air SP will go up? Why the insto buy Air to push the SP up if it wasn't a good company?

[winner69]

Its 328 now...do we still have doubt Air SP will go up? Why the insto buy Air to push the SP up if it wasn't a good company?

You getting richer by the minute eh

Mr P always said 'let the trend be your friend' so don't get tempted to sell yet

[Beagle]

Hey Beagle

If this keeps up for June H2 passenger revenue will be slightly more than last year.

As H1 revenues were down that's a FANTASTIC effort

How shiny is Chris's halo now -

I'm very pleased with how they're executing their business plan mate. Their determination to now grow in a disciplined manner in line with demand growth is something of a departure from their approach in FY16 and is something that I feel far more comfortable with.

[kelfy]

2% is a joke...I rather keep in the bank.

[Beagle]

If we get three special fully imputed divvies in the 2020-2022 years of 25 cps each and between now and 2022 for the next five years average 20 cps per annum in ordinary dividends that's a total of $1.75 coming back to shareholders all fully imputed or $2.43 gross. $2.43 / $3.25 = 74.8% return over five years equals an average annual gross dividend yield of ~ 15%. Conclusion, provided in those capex lean years AIR pay out 25 cps of the approx. 90 cps free cash flow as fully imputed special dividends then the dividend yield case notwithstanding very strong share price gains, is still very compelling.

[Xerof]

humming along nicely - forget the A330, A350, looking good for A380:scared:

sold last week for A321 to fly on something else, but happy for holders

[Raz]

Its 328 now...do we still have doubt Air SP will go up? Why the insto buy Air to push the SP up if it wasn't a good company?

It only up ten cents that does not determine it entire future.

Inst. investors also sold on the way down based simply on uncertainty and market sentiment on the last drop. The yield buying now only makes sense as beagle argues if you include several years of specials when capex is forecast to drop off...more forward out assumptions and what ifs to get to a 15% return overall.

I'm happy having taken money off the table..sold 700,000 share on the way up and still hold a parcel. As I'm not an institutional investor with higher level contacts in NZ markets there was no way I could offload them quickly if this share drops again... which can happen just as easily as before for a number of reasons I mentioned previously. It may just as easily be triggered by the next executive sell off...

Can never ride to the top of the trend if you are a larger private investor..you never get out the door early enough if sentiment changes. Define you exit points and keep to it..no need to be greedy.

[RupertBear]

It only up ten cents that does not determine it entire future.

Inst. investors also sold on the way down based simply on uncertainty and market sentiment on the last drop. The yield buying now only makes sense as beagle argues if you include several years of specials when capex is forecast to drop off...more forward out assumptions and what ifs to get to a 15% return overall.

I'm happy having taken money off the table..sold 700,000 share on the way up and still hold a parcel. As I'm not an institutional investor with higher level contacts in NZ markets there was no way I could offload them quickly if this share drops again... which can happen just as easily as before for a number of reasons I mentioned previously. It may just as easily be triggered by the next executive sell off...

Can never ride to the top of the trend if you are a larger private investor..you never get out the door early enough if sentiment changes. Define you exit points and keep to it..no need to be greedy.

WOW cant get my head around owning that many shares! :eek2: Thats amazing! :D Oh I am such a small fish :mellow:

[couta1]

You did well Raz, no NZ Instos would have taken those shares off your hands even with higher connections, it's overseas players driving the price up and even they would be running for cover on any sharp price drop.

[Raz]

WOW cant get my head around owning that many shares! :eek2: Thats amazing! :D Oh I am such a small fish :mellow:

We all face larger fish...even bigly i imagine if you ask Trump. It only reflects a couple of cash up Auckland properties....a lot in life occurs on luck or fortunate timing...

[GTI]

WOW cant get my head around owning that many shares! :eek2: Thats amazing! :D Oh I am such a small fish :mellow:

When someone is holding $2m Air, my 10k is nothing...lol

[Eval]

humming along nicely - forget the A330, A350, looking good for A380:scared:

sold last week for A321 to fly on something else, but happy for holders

That's unfortunate you have to exit early.

The monthly passenger numbers are pretty impressive, the Oil is keep deeping and by the look not going to hit US$60/bbl any time soon as U.S. crude output will continue rising through next year.

still holding my fortune in AIR nothing to panic at this moment.

[couta1]

That's unfortunate you have to exit early.

The monthly passenger numbers are pretty impressive, the Oil is keep deeping and by the look not going to hit US$60/bbl any time soon as U.S. crude output will continue rising through next year.

still holding my fortune in AIR nothing to panic at this moment.



He hasn't exited early, his timing is superb having held since the SP was under $2. Selling at $2.32, like myself, is what you call exiting early.

[Beagle]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/markets/shares-touch-new-record-air-nz-flies-high/ar-BBCVw6q?li=AA4Zjm&ocid=spartandhp

[Eval]

He hasn't exited early, his timing is superb having held since the SP was under $2. Selling at $2.32, like myself, is what you call exiting early.

There is a plenty of juice left that's why i said exited early :cool:

[Eval]

Analysts downgraded AIR after FY16 last year based on raising competitions and higher OIL prices.

Since AIR have managed competitions very well and OIL prices managing itself :cool:. Oil still sliping. Oil prices enters bear market. The days of turbulence are over. Future ride look very smooth :sneaky2:.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/20/investing/oil-prices-bear-market/index.html?iid=hp-toplead-intl

[GTI]

Analysts downgraded AIR after FY16 last year based on raising competitions and higher OIL prices.

Since AIR have managed competitions very well and OIL prices managing itself :cool:. Oil still sliping. Oil prices enters bear market. The days of turbulence are over. Future ride look very smooth :sneaky2:.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/20/investing/oil-prices-bear-market/index.html?iid=hp-toplead-intl

Good news for airlines...in fact all of us...at the pumps :)

[Joshuatree]

My 100% portfolio is AIR at the moment. I'm investing in shares for last 8 to 9 years and never lost any money in the shares. I had big volumes in A2Milk which sold it when SP went to $3.70 last month and took a healthy profit over $80k. Im still buying more volumes in AIR. I brought more volumes @2.87 last week. Still quite bit juice left in the AIR. I do my own research. AIR management is also rock solid. Smart operator IMO.

Still all in EVAL?.At what point will you take some profits out to reduce your risk in a possible global correction/slowdown/disaster etc?

[Eval]

Still all in EVAL?.At what point will you take some profits out to reduce your risk in a possible global correction/slowdown/disaster etc?

yep, still holding all in AIR, haven't cashing the profit yet other then the Divi. Have topped more volumes @3.19 other day. Looking at the facts AIR is doing really very well. Will wait and see next few months.

[Beagle]

yep, still holding all in AIR, haven't cashing the profit yet other then the Divi. Have topped more volumes @3.19 other day. Looking at the facts AIR is doing really very well. Will wait and see next few months.

Watershed year really in my opinion. AIR have proved the veracity of their business model in this new highly competitive environment which augers very well for the future.

[Joshuatree]

Roger would you put 100% of your money in to one stock that maybe at an all time high ? I admire Eval but i don't know if he is aware of the risk; never, as he says having lost money on the mkts .

[Xerof]

Eval might have sold overnight :D- 17mill gone through at 315

[Eval]

Eval might have sold overnight :D- 17mill gone through at 315

haha....



$153,895.34







55.80%
100%

[sb9]

Eval might have sold overnight :D- 17mill gone through at 315

Wow, never seen that kind of large trades for AIR before in one go...

[Meextr]

Wow, never seen that kind of large trades for AIR before in one go... On the ANZ trading site it has under depth 17mil with abbreviation LA. I can't find what LA means can someone tell me. Thanks

[stoploss]

Roger would you put 100% of your money in to one stock that maybe at an all time high ? I admire Eval but i don't know if he is aware of the risk; never, as he says having lost money on the mkts .

While not advocating 100% of a portfolio in one stock for a personal investor .
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs went ok being pretty much "all in" on one stock .
Re all time highs , AAPL was $ 10,20'40,, 80,100,200,400 700 then 7/1 split and now$ 145 or equivalent of over $ 1000. So buying the highs not a bad strategy ?
Maybe have a read iof William O Neil and CANSLIM.

[Snow Leopard]

It will all end in tears.

and

So Roger has become Beagle - that is going to cause some confusion:

Now we have
Snoopy - the Beagle
Beagle - the ?

Best Wishes
Paper T

[winner69]

From some research I was doing about other things this pertinent to AIRs prospects

Current growth in NZ residents holidaying overseas has started to exceed growth in foreign visitor arrivals.

Doesn't really matter as AIR wins both ways eh - and maybe a good thing for AIR as NZers more likely to fly AIRplanes (?)

And all those Lions fan boosting June / July stats and Ed will boost internal travel next May

[dobby41]

Doesn't really matter as AIR wins both ways eh - and maybe a good thing for AIR as NZers more likely to fly AIRplanes (?)

I wouldn't bet on that.
I drive to Auckland next week and take Qatar to Athens and back.
Best option at the time of booking.
NZers will fly the best value and AIR isn't always the best value.

[winner69]

I wouldn't bet on that.
I drive to Auckland next week and take Qatar to Athens and back.
Best option at the time of booking.
NZers will fly the best value and AIR isn't always the best value.

Maybe more NZers departing only as good for AIR as a %age of the increased volume assuming AIR hold share

Main thing though more and more punters coming to and from NZ

[winner69]

Analysts downgraded AIR after FY16 last year based on raising competitions and higher OIL prices.

Since AIR have managed competitions very well and OIL prices managing itself :cool:. Oil still sliping. Oil prices enters bear market. The days of turbulence are over. Future ride look very smooth :sneaky2:.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/20/investing/oil-prices-bear-market/index.html?iid=hp-toplead-intl

Macquarie lowers oil price targets

From the media -


Macquarie has lowered its Brent crude oil price targets by between 7 and 13 per cent amid an “era of easy oil supply to 2020”,

The broker has Brent averaging $US54.15 in 2H17, $US49.33 for 2018, $US52.75 for 2019 and $US65 for the long term.

“Our analyses indicates there will be too much oil being produced, loaded, and marketed around the world until 2020,” Macquarie analysts say.



And it ended capitulations by analysts can often mark price bottoms.

[Onion]

NZers more likely to fly AIRplanes (?)


Aeroplane and airplane are different forms of the same word. Airplane is preferred in American and Canadian English, while aeroplane is traditionally preferred in non-North American varieties of English. But airplane has been steadily gaining ground in British publications, and it may someday become standard. Meanwhile, aeroplane is almost completely absent from American and Canadian publications, and to North Americans it may have an old-fashioned ring. http://grammarist.com/usage/aeroplane-airplane/

So NZers don't like AIRplanes -- they prefer AEROplanes. :)

[winner69]

http://grammarist.com/usage/aeroplane-airplane/

So NZers don't like AIRplanes -- they prefer AEROplanes. :)

Thank you onion, very interesting

But I prefer AIRplane just as SUM of the time I prefer the retirement sector

(Source: Sharetrader dictionary of special words)

[Beagle]

It will all end in tears.

and

So Roger has become Beagle - that is going to cause some confusion:

Now we have
Snoopy - the Beagle
Beagle - the hound

Best Wishes
Paper T
Elementary my dear Watson :)

[Harley]

Elementary my dear Watson :)

“The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes.”

[Joshuatree]

Snoopy The Beagle
Beagle The Hound
Hound The Harley
= The Beagle Brothers:confused:

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cute+beagle+barking&&view=detail&mid=A9BA0D59F65DE7F1F46DA9BA0D59F65DE7F1F46D&FORM=VRDGAR

AIRtime... for the newborn beagle :)

[winner69]

That was a pretty bad day for the AIR share price

Let's just put it down to some profit taking on what wasn't a good day on the bourse

Resumption of normal action soon

As guru market commentators say after a bout of 'profit taking' the 'bargain hunters' come out to play

Been like that for ages

[couta1]

That was a pretty bad day for the AIR share price

Let's just put it down to some profit taking on what wasn't a good day on the bourse

Resumption of normal action soon

As guru market commentators say after a bout of 'profit taking' the 'bargain hunters' come out to play

Been like that for ages Sorry winner but bargin hunters are looking for a bargin, not a tiny discount.

[Blackrose]

How is AIR coping with the ex-PM John Key now part of the board?
Can they cope with a carping show pony that may make media headlines as he's still a public figure? Hummm

[Baa_Baa]

Today formed an inverted hammer on the weekly chart, a reversal signal, the turn away from previous high was quite pronounced. Watching closely for weeks end. Check stops.

BAA

[stoploss]

How is AIR coping with the ex-PM John Key now part of the board?
Can they cope with a carping show pony that may make media headlines as he's still a public figure? Hummm

I don't see him on the board ....
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/air-new-zealand-board#selection
Maybe come back in spring black rose , then the company will be in full bloom with the assistance of the ex PM.

[couta1]

How is AIR coping with the ex-PM John Key now part of the board?
Can they cope with a carping show pony that may make media headlines as he's still a public figure? Hummm Good post.:)

[Raz]

Good post.:)

Yes it is. Tourism is such a fragile thing...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92843036/naive-to-think-people-will-just-keep-coming-to-new-zealand

[Eval]

Yes it is. Tourism is such a fragile thing...


mate, everything is fragile when it come to business... take a example of Oil, predicted to hit USD$60/bbl most of the 2017 and look at now where it is heading towards. Oil spirals to 10-month low.trading below US$43/bbl.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-futures-hold-steady-after-falling-into-a-bear-market-2017-06-21?dist=markets

According to bank of Russia if three major countries doesn't stop the output growth then Oil will be hitting to US$25/bbl by mid-2018 but it doesn't mean its going to. Incase if that happen then what would be for AIR (another record profit in 18) but that's all prediction.

Can't predict the future.it can go either way :cool:

[bull....]

price of Brent under $45 dollars , air nz collar If I remember was $55 so they are looking pretty good.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/oil-holds-slide-into-bear-market-as-libya-to-u-s-raise-supply

[Raz]

mate, everything is fragile when it come to business... take a example of Oil, predicted to hit USD$60/bbl most of the 2017 and look at now where it is heading towards. Oil spirals to 10-month low.trading below US$43/bbl.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-futures-hold-steady-after-falling-into-a-bear-market-2017-06-21?dist=markets

According to bank of Russia if three major countries doesn't stop the output growth then Oil will be hitting to US$25/bbl by mid-2018 but it doesn't mean its going to. Incase if that happen then what would be for AIR (another record profit in 18) but that's all prediction.

Can't predict the future.it can go either way :cool:

When it came to oil you could predict the outcome this time if you had contacts in the US shale oil industry... many surprised on how quickly they would come back into world supply. Actually the US government has a funding support line for that to occur. Part of foreign policy to keep the Russians and others in check?

If you study tourism you will see it naturally is entirely different risk at this time...

[Eval]

If you study tourism you will see it naturally is entirely different risk at this time...

May be far side of europe but this part of the world is safe heaven :cool:

[BlackPeter]

Obviously - this is an issue impacting on all airlines ... but I didn't realise that planes have difficulties to fly when it is too hot. It sounds like we managed already to reach the limit - lots of flights in Phoenix cancelled recently due to high temperatures:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/flying-climate-change.html

For sure a long term issue, but maybe airlines better prepare ...

[Raz]

Obviously - this is an issue impacting on all airlines ... but I didn't realise that planes have difficulties to fly when it is too hot. It sounds like we managed already to reach the limit - lots of flights in Phoenix cancelled recently due to high temperatures:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/flying-climate-change.html

For sure a long term issue, but maybe airlines better prepare ...


For at least three airlines with their main hub is Phoenix they will have to look at it...Dubai has some measures in place which they could look at...the airport needs to have a look also ...

[Eval]

price of Brent under $45 dollars , air nz collar If I remember was $55 so they are looking pretty good.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/oil-holds-slide-into-bear-market-as-libya-to-u-s-raise-supply

For the 2H17 AIR forecasted the profit based on USD$65/bbl. the yearly Brent high is USD$58.35 and current $45/bbl.

"fuel price in the second half of the year of US$65 per barrel"


Looking pretty good toward the the FY17 and onwards :cool:

[couta1]

Whatever the argument, the stock is fully priced and apart from it's divvy paying ability there's little growth left with a ton of potential downside. Contrast that with the likes of A2 where the sky literally is the limit of growth potential, plus a future divvy.

[Eval]

Whatever the argument, the stock is fully priced and apart from it's divvy paying ability there's little growth left with a ton of potential downside. Contrast that with the likes of A2 where the sky literally is the limit of growth potential, plus a future divvy.

you been saying this overpriced since it was trading mid $2.40 :). so many new comers may be turned away and may be kicking themselves now

[couta1]

you been saying this overpriced since it was trading mid $2.40 :) Wrong, my target price was $2.50-$2.60, sure it's exceeded where I thought it would get to but buying at the top can be perilous with a volatile cyclical.

[Blackrose]

If only there was some sort of scientific explanation for why the temperatures in general are so hot year in year out, that could be possibly put in to a report and given to the US Trump administration... Apparently the French might have a solution.

Anyway, yes a guy I know in the Californian basin is currently wrestling with that one. They also have problems with wild fires too and any one that's worked in Western Australia knows anytime the temp goes above 43c it's next to useless to do anything but wait in air conditioned areas with a cold one.

Anyway - indeed stop loss, why the AIR board are "hiding" the mouthy ex-PM from banging on, I'm mildly curious as why AIR hired him in the first place given that most board members only want to sign off on expansions, and steady as she goes budget plans as to not anger the shareholders holding AIR shares in Panmure.

The minute he starts up with the smile and wave obfuscation bull**** that worked so well in National politics if it comes to announcing a large losses or a downgrades, or the usual rounds over Aviation Engineer cuts, I want to see him being thrown to the dogs just like Ramsey Bolton being feed to the Direwolves and Cane Corso's of Castle Black.

[mikeybycrikey]

For the 2H17 AIR forecasted the profit based on USD$65/bbl. the yearly Brent high is USD$58.35 and current $45/bbl.

"fuel price in the second half of the year of US$65 per barrel"


Looking pretty good toward the the FY17 and onwards :cool:

Don't get too excited by that. This refers to barrels of jet fuel rather than barrels of oil, which is more like $57/bbl at the moment.

[Eval]

Don't get too excited by that. This refers to barrels of jet fuel rather than barrels of oil, which is more like $57/bbl at the moment.

Yes i know that' that was a Jet fuel

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/38b38f82/chinese-uk-and-australian-immigrants-drive-nz-net-migration-to-new-record-in-may.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Chinese%20UK%20and%20Australian%20imm igrants%20drive%20NZ%20net%20migration%20to%20new% 20record%20in%20May&utm_content=Chinese%20UK%20and%20Australian%20immi grants%20drive%20NZ%20net%20migration%20to%20new%2 0record%20in%20May+CID_424575427ca8b365893543a4741 93a3f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle38b38f82chines e-uk-and-australian-immigrants-drive-nz-net-migration-to-new-record-in-mayhtml

Inbound and outbound travel very strong. Immigration at new record high.

[allfromacell]

Another good day for Qantas over on the ASX along with Macquarie Private Wealth increasing their price target from $5.90 (5 May 2017) to $6.50 a few days ago. I suspect AIR will continue to follow her footsteps.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks allfro... a positive finish to this day as the next starts:t_up:

[GTI]

Another good day for Qantas over on the ASX along with Macquarie Private Wealth increasing their price target from $5.90 (5 May 2017) to $6.50 a few days ago. I suspect AIR will continue to follow her footsteps.

Can we imagine AIR is $5 one day?:eek2:

[Onion]

Can we imagine AIR is $5 one day?:eek2:

No need to imagine it -- Google Finance tells me it was $5.00 on August 24 2001! It was down from $15.90 on June 4th 1999.

A bit of water under the bridge (or air under the wings) since then.

[couta1]

No need to imagine it -- Google Finance tells me it was $5.00 on August 24 2001! It was down from $15.90 on June 4th 1999.

A bit of water under the bridge (or air under the wings) since then. I bet a lot of people got seriously skunked over that period, a good old cyclical bear bashing.

[Scrunch]

Air nz never actually traded at prices like $15.90 post bailout there was a major share consolidation. 5:1? This caused Google finance to multiply all pre-consolidation prices by five. It's not however like for like as a lot of new shares were issued at a low price in the bailout. If air nz were to trade at $5 It would have a much higher market capitalisation than the earlier price point now called $5.

[Beagle]

Closed at a multi year high of $3.285. Warmest congratulations to shareholders who have had the courage to hold all the way from around $1.80 in late 2016 against an absolute barrage of sustained negativity on here at times. Disc: Has been my #1 investment position for quite some time and am sitting patiently waiting for the next very tasty meal service to come along in September (really enjoying the ride) :t_up:

Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?

[winner69]

Closed at a multi year high of $3.285. Warmest congratulations to shareholders who have had the courage to hold all the way from around $1.80 in late 2016 against an absolute barrage of sustained negativity on here at times. Disc: Has been my #1 investment position for quite some time and am sitting patiently waiting for the next very tasty meal service to come along in September (really enjoying the ride) :t_up:

Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?

Cool eh Mr Beagle

We'll be talking $3.50 soon ....and then ......

[Beagle]

Cool eh Mr Beagle

We'll be talking $3.50 soon ....and then ......
Very cool mate...and then.... (average 10 year PE is 11 and my forecast at $575m which is 37 cps..leave you good folks to do the maths). I haven't dared to mention 4 handle before seeing as many seem so paranoid about the 3 handle.

[Eval]

Closed at a multi year high of $3.285. Warmest congratulations to shareholders who have had the courage to hold all the way from around $1.80 in late 2016 against an absolute barrage of sustained negativity on here at times. Disc: Has been my #1 investment position for quite some time and am sitting patiently waiting for the next very tasty meal service to come along in September (really enjoying the ride) :t_up:

Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?

I'm still holding my 100% portfolio in AIR and i'm still keep toping up as SP moves. Still plenty of fuel left :cool:.

[Baa_Baa]

Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?

From time to time people have pointed out the powerful uptrend, strong indicators etc Roger and a few have expertly entered at recent deep lows and ridden the now parabolic rise. But as the SP approached multi-year highs, being resistance, a TA would rightly call that out as a warning. A confirmed breakout (that's a run up from here, a pullback and back tested the breakout line, then off upwards again) would be what TA's are looking for. Otherwise buying now is just buying at a historical turning point range.

[Beagle]

I'm still holding my 100% portfolio in AIR and i'm still keep toping up as SP moves. Still plenty of fuel left :cool:.
You must be very pleased...I could never sleep at night with such a "diversified" strategy but each to their own ! (I haven't sold any despite all the "expert" analysts opinions and other opinions on here saying they're WAY overpriced. Have you taken over as the new Couta1 mate :D

[Beagle]

From time to time people have pointed out the powerful uptrend, strong indicators etc Roger and a few have expertly entered and recent deep lows and ridden the now parabolic rise. But as the SP approached multi-year highs, being resistance, a TA would rightly call that out as a warning. A confirmed breakout (that's a run up from here, a pullback and back tested the breakout line, then off upwards again) would be what TA's are looking for. Otherwise buying now is just buying at a historical turning point range.
Okay, fair enough I do recall one or two comments so perhaps the word never should have been "very seldom" but I recall some people saying they might be a good buy at $2.30 as recently as March 2017 and maybe not, so now TA people are waiting for a confirmed breakout above $3.30 to make it good buying...seems weird ???. Quite the "mystical" art this whole TA thing...doubt I'll really ever understand all the mysticism and nuances...better for a simple bean counting hound to stick with FA supported by basic TA like breaking up through 30 day MA and staying above it....seems to be a strategy that's working out just fine :)

[Eval]

You must be very pleased...I could never sleep at night with such a "diversified" strategy but each to their own ! (I haven't sold any despite all the "expert" analysts opinions and other opinions on here saying they're WAY overpriced. Have you taken over as the new Couta1 mate :D

Yes, i'm very pleased with my hold and will continue holding. I have my exit defined if it goes other way around but IMO there is plenty of juice left in AIR. Been doing share trading since 8-9 years and never had lost any money in markets. I make more in share markets then my six figure yearly salary.

I had few friends who sold it there shares in AIR day before the 1h17 announcement based on negative prediction from the analysts and comments in forum posts. now they are kicking themselves.

I can't take over anyone mate :cool:

[Joshuatree]

Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?

Im still laughing because of this, thank you.FA people do it too; some more than others. Ownership bias is one of many. One will frequently pump or promote the stock one owns and attack or belittle any one who doesn't agree. Your psychologist can be a valuable tool in explaining why we react the way we do and in changing it to an informed response. Its a constant work in process though as that lil monkey on ones shoulder is always waiting for an opp to sidetrack that rationale. I can see young Burling has got it sorted.:t_up:

Glad to hear you've got an exit strategy Eval.:cool:

[winner69]

No doubt Emirates will make the most of TNZ America's Cup success

[BlackPeter]

No doubt Emirates will make the most of TNZ America's Cup success

And so they should. They did stick with the team for a long time and spent an awful amount of money, only fair if they now reap the rewards as well.

Well done Emirates Team New Zealand!

[see weed]

And so they should. They did stick with the team for a long time and spent an awful amount of money, only fair if they now reap the rewards as well.

Well done Emirates Team New Zealand!

Yes well done. AIR can look forward to all the extra flights coming our way. Have been topping up rapidly in the last 4 weeks to compliment the ones bought last Oct in the 1.70s. Wouldn't surprise me if they touched $4 by next div date....about 10 weeks from now;).

[Beagle]

Yes well done. AIR can look forward to all the extra flights coming our way. Have been topping up rapidly in the last 4 weeks to compliment the ones bought last Oct in the 1.70s. Wouldn't surprise me if they touched $4 by next div date....about 10 weeks from now;).

Well done mate. Yeah I was topping up in the low, mid, and even high $2 range, (when some people thought I needed to see a psychologist)...not looking so silly now is it ! We are very well positioned with front row seats in business class awaiting that next tasty meal service in September :t_up:

[Raz]

Little smug around here..I remember well those who were humbled...happy the price is at these levels although also a little surprised. still hold a parcel however those that have sat there and realised no money 💰 on the way down and up again and associated volatility have missed out on a once in a decade opportunity :) Time waits for no one ☝️

[Beagle]

Little smug around here..
With so many posters bleating its overpriced its hard not to feel more than a little contented to have held and added to a fulsome position at much lower prices than currently prevailing without selling unlike some who were selling at the mid $2 mark just a few months ago. Fact is a lot of people were calling this a sell at just over $1.70 less than 12 months ago and have missed a circa 100% return in less than a year, inclusive of March 2017 dividend. I guess some people thought we'd be in the GFC MK2 by now.

[mondograss]

Proving their deep and lasting commitment to the regions:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/94162697/jetstar-cuts-back-frequency-of-new-plymouth-flights-over-winter-period

[GTI]

With so many posters bleating its overpriced its hard not to feel more than a little contented to have held and added to a fulsome position at much lower prices than currently prevailing without selling unlike some who were selling at the mid $2 mark just a few months ago. Fact is a lot of people were calling this a sell at just over $1.70 less than 12 months ago and have missed a circa 100% return in less than a year, inclusive of March 2017 dividend. I guess some people thought we'd be in the GFC MK2 by now.

I didn't have enough, should i add more at current price?😂

[see weed]

With so many posters bleating its overpriced its hard not to feel more than a little contented to have held and added to a fulsome position at much lower prices than currently prevailing without selling unlike some who were selling at the mid $2 mark just a few months ago. Fact is a lot of people were calling this a sell at just over $1.70 less than 12 months ago and have missed a circa 100% return in less than a year, inclusive of March 2017 dividend. I guess some people thought we'd be in the GFC MK2 by now.
I have this gut feeling about AIR. A bit like a TeamNZ feeling, so bought another lot this avo for 3.29. How is your gut feeling?:D on this action.:)

[Raz]

I have this gut feeling about AIR. A bit like a TeamNZ feeling, so bought another lot this avo for 3.29. How is your gut feeling?:D on this action.:)


Well we will see how good your gut feeling is, personally I would not buy in now..however easy for me to say given I purchased all below $2. Have 2/3rds what I should have to rebalance. I certainly would not be happy if I was sitting on the sidelines without AIR in my portfolio....so I guess your gut is always moderated by your own position...

[Joshuatree]

You're a brave man seaweed.I expect to see you at the first roundabout i come to , handing out flyers :).

[tim23]

Plenty of buyers not all brave each sale has matching buyer - optimists v pessimists (profit takers too!)

[Beagle]

I didn't have enough, should i add more at current price?��


I have this gut feeling about AIR. A bit like a TeamNZ feeling, so bought another lot this avo for 3.29. How is your gut feeling?:D on this action.:)


You're a brave man seaweed.I expect to see you at the first roundabout i come to , handing out flyers :).

Ssssshhhh, keep it quiet, but I've been doing that for years :D I 'll give you a serious answer tomorrow when I have more time.

[couta1]

I have this gut feeling about AIR. A bit like a TeamNZ feeling, so bought another lot this avo for 3.29. How is your gut feeling?:D on this action.:) Be Fearful when others are greedy:D. When a horse has bolted let it go, and look for another horse still in the stable (Hard to find in a toppy market) A good old decent correction would bring the horse's back into the stable to be remounted.

[Xerof]

humming along nicely - forget the A330, A350, looking good for A380:scared:

sold last week for A321 to fly on something else, but happy for holders

I note Airbus have an A400M - quite possible IMO - don't be shy roger....

[see weed]

You're a brave man seaweed.I expect to see you at the first roundabout i come to , handing out flyers :).
Too busy for that now.

[see weed]

Be Fearful when others are greedy:D. When a horse has bolted let it go, and look for another horse still in the stable (Hard to find in a toppy market) A good old decent correction would bring the horse's back into the stable to be remounted.
Like to be greedy every now and then. Like to catch that horse and ride it hard to the $4 hurdle and then jump off, let them find their own way back to their "new" stable;). My av price has gone from 1.745 to 2.710 in last couple months. and still in the green today:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Hi see weed

AIR has had a magnificent run over this quarter gaining almost exactly $1. The market has clearly realized the operating environment is more benign but also that AIR are executing their business plan in a carefully organized and disciplined manner. Gone is the apparent rush of 2016 to grow as fast as possible and there's now the sense that they're growing in a carefully managed and more disciplined manner. The more they grow the more efficient their operation becomes as they leverage higher revenue off their fixed cost base of circa $600m per annum.

I am modeling $575m before tax this year for 37 cps which put them on a FY17 PE of 8.9. The ten year average is 11. My sense is the world economy is growing okay and there are encouraging signs from Europe that they're emerging from an extended period of very low economic growth. IATA are predicting worldwide air travel to increase by circa 5% per annum and this roughly matches AIR's more carefully measured growth ambitions.

My sense is the company is extremely well lead and managed by a highly capable leadership team and word on the ground I am hearing from AIR employees is morale within the company is very good and obviously their status as #1 employer in N.Z. of choice reflects people's belief they're a superb company to work for. I'd love a consulting job with them but they do almost everything so incredibly well. John Key joining the board is quite a feather in the company's cap and he'll bring excellent international contacts, leadership and business skills to the board and I think Chris Luxon will really enjoy working with him. Further, I believe international investors have a lot of respect for John Key and will be pleased to see him on the board, (remember they're the ones that hold the VAST majority of the shares not controlled by the N.Z. Govt).

From an operational perspective they have a very modern, streamlined and fuel efficient fleet and are within a couple of years of completing a major capex replacement program. From a dividend perspective even at $3.29 there's a compelling g investment case on a five year view as I believe we're looking at circa $1 in ordinary dividends and potentially close to another $1 in special dividends when they hit the three year period of 2020-2022 with minimal capex. They have "truck loads" of imputation credits.

For long term investors if you're looking at getting somewhere between $1.50 - $2.00 in fully imputed dividends back in the next five years what are you really paying now for your long term stake in the airline ? At $1.75 in total dividends inclusive of 3 x 25cent specials I have them on an average gross dividend yield of 14.8% on a five year investment view.

AIR are not expensive when compared to their most relevant measure the PE of QAN. By comparison to American carriers AIR however do look fully priced based on currently known information and based on $575m before tax.

Shareholders have enjoyed a stellar run this quarter so some consolidation around the current level shouldn't be a surprise to anyone while we wait for further clarity on progress from the company which will come from not only their monthly operating stat's but of course the annual result itself in August and management briefings around that followed by potentially a FY18 forecast at the Annual meeting.

The bottom line is actions speak louder than words so to the question are they good buying at this level I would simply say that I'm very happy to continue to hold all of my stake in the company which is my #1 investment position and will remain so for the foreseeable future. I have no intention of crystalizing any part of the significant unrealized profits I'm sitting on.

I have a lot of confidence in management's ability to run this company across the business cycles and there ability to grow the company throughout those cycles. They have admitted they are done for all time with acquisitions so we're extremely unlikely to see any other overseas fishing expeditions in the future

This in many ways has been a watershed year as they've proved the veracity of their business model in the face of a very competitive new environment. As we lap the latter part of this calendar year when at the same time of the year ten new international competitors were running crazy deeply discounted opening special's I believe we'll see some very satisfactory ongoing improvement in yields achieved.

To coin Percy's favorite saying, we are well positioned :)

[couta1]

Good post Mr Beagle, looking ahead to where I'm going to line up my next XOS divvy, I would like to choose Air, but would find myself feeling quite nervous holding 50% of my portfolio in Air at current prices. Will probably seek a more boring option.

[Beagle]

Maybe time for a fresh approach mate ? Why not take a 5% investment portfolio position in AIR, throw them in a family trust so you're not tempted to trade them, hold long term and put your feet up in business class and enjoy the regular meal service...maybe pass on some of the meals you don't need to eat to the grandkids :)

[couta1]

Maybe time for a fresh approach mate ? Why not take a 5% investment portfolio position in AIR, throw them in a family trust so you're not tempted to trade them, hold long term and put your feet up in business class and enjoy the regular meal service...maybe pass on some of the meals you don't need to eat to the grandkids :) Nah mate, you know me, it's go big or go home. PS-Im weary of the current toppy market excepting the few or SUM.

[see weed]

Thanks Beagle. Want to get another 5000 to meet my target, on next downer if any. Shareholders seem to be hanging on to see what happens.

[maknz]

I entered at back at $2.37. Have neither added to nor reduced, just sitting tight for now to see where this goes. My original purchase was for dividend income, has been hard to resist the temptation to start exiting once it got to $3.20. Decided to go long haul on this and ride out any turbulence.

[GTI]

Hi see weed

AIR has had a magnificent run over this quarter gaining almost exactly $1. The market has clearly realized the operating environment is more benign but also that AIR are executing their business plan in a carefully organized and disciplined manner. Gone is the apparent rush of 2016 to grow as fast as possible and there's now the sense that they're growing in a carefully managed and more disciplined manner. The more they grow the more efficient their operation becomes as they leverage higher revenue off their fixed cost base of circa $600m per annum.

I am modeling $575m before tax this year for 37 cps which put them on a FY17 PE of 8.9. The ten year average is 11. My sense is the world economy is growing okay and there are encouraging signs from Europe that they're emerging from an extended period of very low economic growth. IATA are predicting worldwide air travel to increase by circa 5% per annum and this roughly matches AIR's more carefully measured growth ambitions.

My sense is the company is extremely well lead and managed by a highly capable leadership team and word on the ground I am hearing from AIR employees is morale within the company is very good and obviously their status as #1 employer in N.Z. of choice reflects people's belief they're a superb company to work for. I'd love a consulting job with them but they do almost everything so incredibly well. John Key joining the board is quite a feather in the company's cap and he'll bring excellent international contacts, leadership and business skills to the board and I think Chris Luxon will really enjoy working with him. Further, I believe international investors have a lot of respect for John Key and will be pleased to see him on the board, (remember they're the ones that hold the VAST majority of the shares not controlled by the N.Z. Govt).

From an operational perspective they have a very modern, streamlined and fuel efficient fleet and are within a couple of years of completing a major capex replacement program. From a dividend perspective even at $3.29 there's a compelling g investment case on a five year view as I believe we're looking at circa $1 in ordinary dividends and potentially close to another $1 in special dividends when they hit the three year period of 2020-2022 with minimal capex. They have "truck loads" of imputation credits.

For long term investors if you're looking at getting somewhere between $1.50 - $2.00 in fully imputed dividends back in the next five years what are you really paying now for your long term stake in the airline ? At $1.75 in total dividends inclusive of 3 x 25cent specials I have them on an average gross dividend yield of 14.8% on a five year investment view.

AIR are not expensive when compared to their most relevant measure the PE of QAN. By comparison to American carriers AIR however do look fully priced based on currently known information and based on $575m before tax.

Shareholders have enjoyed a stellar run this quarter so some consolidation around the current level shouldn't be a surprise to anyone while we wait for further clarity on progress from the company which will come from not only their monthly operating stat's but of course the annual result itself in August and management briefings around that followed by potentially a FY18 forecast at the Annual meeting.

The bottom line is actions speak louder than words so to the question are they good buying at this level I would simply say that I'm very happy to continue to hold all of my stake in the company which is my #1 investment position and will remain so for the foreseeable future. I have no intention of crystalizing any part of the significant unrealized profits I'm sitting on.

I have a lot of confidence in management's ability to run this company across the business cycles and there ability to grow the company throughout those cycles. They have admitted they are done for all time with acquisitions so we're extremely unlikely to see any other overseas fishing expeditions in the future

This in many ways has been a watershed year as they've proved the veracity of their business model in the face of a very competitive new environment. As we lap the latter part of this calendar year when at the same time of the year ten new international competitors were running crazy deeply discounted opening special's I believe we'll see some very satisfactory ongoing improvement in yields achieved.

To coin Percy's favorite saying, we are well positioned :)

Thanks for yr good report Beagle! I used to be supplier of Air and received weekly update from ceo Chris. I have full confidence in him to steer Air to the right direction. I will add more on weakness.

[see weed]

Thanks for yr good report Beagle! I used to be supplier of Air and received weekly update from ceo Chris. I have full confidence in him to steer Air to the right direction. I will add more on weakness.
Feels like we are all waiting for sp weakness to jump back in. There won't be much weakness if we all keep on jumping back in. Hopefully the sellers will get sick of selling and sp rise.

[allfromacell]

Another ripper day for Qantas fast approaching $6 :o

[couta1]

Another ripper day for Qantas fast approaching $6 :o You'd need to be drunk or stoned to pay $6 for Qantas, or both.