AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Wow...and some people think the AIR SP is overheated...

[winner69]

QAN a pretty good company these days ......and fortunate enough to have as its home exchange plenty of instos / punters happy to invest in their airline.

QAN will always have higher multiples than AIR

[Raz]

QAN a pretty good company these days ......and fortunate enough to have as its home exchange plenty of instos / punters happy to invest in their airline.

QAN will always have higher multiples than AIR

So we hit 3.30, I agree we will not match multiples with QAN. Good to see our Beagle realises AIRs current multliples are close to US airlines...

[Bobdn]

Had to look up "multiple". Amazing that I've been doing ok without knowing what that meant ;)

[Alf]

Interesting experience yesterday. Flying from Wellington to Brisbane on Virgin (code share). Towards an hour out, I was gazing out the window and saw an Air NZ plane shooting through in the other direction. It looked like a missile due to the combined speed I guess, but I was surprised as to how close it was. My guess was about 500 metres away and just slightly below but it could have been further. Close enough to know it was Air NZ though. Is this normal? I've never seen anything like it and have flown hundreds of times.

[Joshuatree]

Sounds like a near miss report due for that Alf. Or was it Beagle with a chartered plane :). Yes good post Beagle thanks. Im not buying but holding.

[workingdad]

Interesting experience yesterday. Flying from Wellington to Brisbane on Virgin (code share). Towards an hour out, I was gazing out the window and saw an Air NZ plane shooting through in the other direction. It looked like a missile due to the combined speed I guess, but I was surprised as to how close it was. My guess was about 500 metres away and just slightly below but it could have been further. Close enough to know it was Air NZ though. Is this normal? I've never seen anything like it and have flown hundreds of times.

I have been in a private jet between Fiji and New Zealand and the pilots told us to look to the side about 5 minutes out and again when closer and same thing, we saw an Air NZ flight coming the other way, not a lot of difference in altitude to be honest but similar distance to you, nothing alarming about it from the pilots we had and like you, was a pretty quick glimpse which I got on camera but only a few frames worth.

[Beagle]

Sounds like a near miss report due for that Alf. Or was it Beagle with a chartered plane :). Yes good post Beagle thanks. Im not buying but holding.

Was snoopy on board and maybe on the other plane is was the red barron :)

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-auckland-nhttp://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11884457ew-york-direct-laptop-ban-relief-virgins-codeshare-limits-ng-p-204706?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%252520Heads%252520Up%252520-%252520Weekend%252520Review%252520Edition

Just got to wait a while :)

[see weed]

You'd need to be drunk or stoned to pay $6 for Qantas, or both.
About 5 weeks ago bought very nervously 28,000 AIR at av 2.92, thinking, would have to be mad buying at this high price. Bought more at 3.15, 3.19, 3.28, 3.29 and 3.30 :eek2:. Now I know I've got a screw loose:D.

[Meextr]

About 5 weeks ago bought very nervously 28,000 AIR at av 2.92, thinking, would have to be mad buying at this high price. Bought more at 3.15, 3.19, 3.28, 3.29 and 3.30 :eek2:. Now I know I've got a screw loose:D..
But are you still buying? someone is.

[Beagle]

About 5 weeks ago bought very nervously 28,000 AIR at av 2.92, thinking, would have to be mad buying at this high price. Bought more at 3.15, 3.19, 3.28, 3.29 and 3.30 :eek2:. Now I know I've got a screw loose:D.

People thought I was mad topping up at $2.50, $2.65 and even $2.85. Dow Jones transport index hit a record overnight. Signs of economic growth around the world are looking good.

[RTM]

About 5 weeks ago bought very nervously 28,000 AIR at av 2.92, thinking, would have to be mad buying at this high price. Bought more at 3.15, 3.19, 3.28, 3.29 and 3.30 :eek2:. Now I know I've got a screw loose:D.

About 7 weeks ago I sold 7000 at 2.73. They were getting to be to big a % of my portfolio. Now I know I've got a screw loose.

[couta1]

.
But are you still buying? someone is. International players, not kiwis.

[couta1]

People thought I was mad topping up at $2.50, $2.65 and even $2.85. Dow Jones transport index hit a record overnight. Signs of economic growth around the world are looking good. Good on ya mate, good margin of safety there, buying now on the other hand, be fearful when others are greedy.

[couta1]

[QUOTE=RTM;672409]About 7 weeks ago I sold 7000 at 2.73. They were getting to be to big a % of my portfolio. Now I know I've got a screw loose.[/QUOTE All profit is profit, whether it be large or small, and in my case the larger the profit, the more I leave behind when I pass on, so from that viewpoint, you can't lose aye.

[Meextr]

[QUOTE=RTM;672409]About 7 weeks ago I sold 7000 at 2.73. They were getting to be to big a % of my portfolio. Now I know I've got a screw loose.[/QUOTE All profit is profit, whether it be large or small, and in my case the larger the profit, the more I leave behind when I pass on, so from that viewpoint, you can't lose aye.. There is always the other option, take the bigger profit and spend the kids inheritance.

[couta1]

[QUOTE=couta1;672413]. There is always the other option, take the bigger profit and spend the kids inheritance. Nah I'm too frugal minded, Im still struggling to upgrade my 1994 Suzuki(Like the challenge of seeing how long I can keep it going and fixing it myself)

[t.rexjr]

Good on ya mate, good margin of safety there, buying now on the other hand, be fearful when others are greedy.

These are on my regret list. I sold for a large parcel @ $1.98 after buying in at $1.78! I'd just sold some investment property and threw the money into shares with little to no research. Then subsiquently freaked out and sold up after a few of my investments rapidly depleated in value... Lesson learnt. Unfortunetley it was before I discovered this site which is a huge resource! Thanks everyone for their input. Missed on this one but have learnt a bucket load from peoples opinions on the way...

[nocomment]

These are on my regret list. I sold for a large parcel @ $1.98 after buying in at $1.78! I'd just sold some investment property and threw the money into shares with little to no research. Then subsiquently freaked out and sold up after a few of my investments rapidly depleated in value... Lesson learnt. Unfortunetley it was before I discovered this site which is a huge resource! Thanks everyone for their input. Missed on this one but have learnt a bucket load from peoples opinions on the way...

i can relate. i sold 50% of my AIR stock when it hit 2.45 bc the rest of my portfolio had taken some big hits and I was trying to get a bird in the hand, instead of just admiring the ones in the bush (ok that made more sense in my head) but you know i wanted to get some actual profit in the bank, not just on paper. we all know its easy enough to rue selling or not selling but if we had that sort of insight we'd all be millionaires.

[bull....]

damn kicking myself now sold last at around 3 for 100% return now they near 3.40 gee whiz my timing sucks

[Beagle]

damn kicking myself now sold last at around 3 for 100% return now they near 3.40 gee whiz my timing sucks

Glass half full mate...you did well.

[Eval]

As i said mid last month still plenty of juice left. I am happily holding over 130k volumes 😎

[see weed]

damn kicking myself now sold last at around 3 for 100% return now they near 3.40 gee whiz my timing sucks
Not to worry, 5 years ago bought in the 80s & 90c and sold in the 1.35s, then it went to over $3. So we all been there. Funny last year everyone were buying and averaging down. This year lots of buyers are buying in and averaging up. Might get another lot at end of week when dust settles. My av price is now 2.74:).

[GTI]

Not to worry, 5 years ago bought in the 80s & 90c and sold in the 1.35s, then it went to over $3. So we all been there. Funny last year everyone were buying and averaging down. This year lots of buyers are buying in and averaging up. Might get another lot at end of week when dust settles. My av price is now 2.74:).

I still have not got a chance to add more since my last buy @ $2.90 7th June. Dreaming on <$3.20 but with the price further gone up today, it seems impossible...:scared::confused: Although I am a late comer to the game, I am very glad to see a healthy 16.6% gain to-date in my portfolio!

[Meextr]

I still have not got a chance to add more since my last buy @ $2.90 7th June. Dreaming on <$3.20 but with the price further gone up today, it seems impossible...:scared::confused: Although I am a late comer to the game, I am very glad to see a healthy 16.6% gain to-date in my portfolio!. Do you have others in portfolio, I am new to game and seeing a lot of my AIR gain being offset by losses in others, most namely BLIS and The Warehouse.

[Jantar]

. Do you have others in portfolio, I am new to game and seeing a lot of my AIR gain being offset by losses in others, most namely BLIS and The Warehouse.
Have a look at http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10136-Holdings&highlight=holding
And feel free to post your own

[Meextr]

Have a look at http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10136-Holdings&highlight=holding
And feel free to post your own
Thanks for sharing, I will put mine up in months time as I am off to UK in less than 12hrs.

[see weed]

I still have not got a chance to add more since my last buy @ $2.90 7th June. Dreaming on <$3.20 but with the price further gone up today, it seems impossible...:scared::confused: Although I am a late comer to the game, I am very glad to see a healthy 16.6% gain to-date in my portfolio!
likewise, got sick of waiting for it to go back to 2.90 so kept on buying. Maybe 3.30 is the new low and $4 is the new high. Will all find out in next 8 weeks before div date :t_up:.

[GTI]

likewise, got sick of waiting for it to go back to 2.90 so kept on buying. Maybe 3.30 is the new low and $4 is the new high. Will all find out in next 8 weeks before div date :t_up:.

Check out this story from the NZ Herald Android App
http://nzh.tw/11885474

[sb9]

The sp action has surely defied the expectations of many people on this forum and seem to be marching ahead, 350 and beyond does seem attainable from here until the FY results and outlook out next month.

[nocomment]

im tempted to sell to cover some losses on other stocks but i read somewhere that the difference between amateurs & pros is that the pros sell the losers and keep the winners, and amateurs sell the winners and keep the losers (i guess with the hope that maybe one day theyll recover)

so maybe i should just hang on to them

[Eval]

im tempted to sell to cover some losses on other stocks but i read somewhere that the difference between amateurs & pros is that the pros sell the losers and keep the winners, and amateurs sell the winners and keep the losers (i guess with the hope that maybe one day theyll recover)

so maybe i should just hang on to them

In Oct'16 my AIR portfolio was negative 20k on paper and as of today my AIR portfolio is positive 166K on paper. You just have to hanging.

[Beagle]

The sp action has surely defied the expectations of many people on this forum and seem to be marching ahead, 350 and beyond does seem attainable from here until the FY results and outlook out next month.

Yes it sure has. Some people think they can pick which part of the economic cycle we are at, I'm not sure anyone really can. There's a strong argument for instance for saying that many European countries are only now beginning to emerge from effects of the GFC and the outlook for growth there is the best its been in years. Still expecting $575m before tax = 37 cps after tax, (risk is to the upside in my opinion) and a reminder that the ten year average PE for AIR is 11.
I have no intention of reducing my position, very happy indeed with the five year dividend yield outlook.

[GTI]

. Do you have others in portfolio, I am new to game and seeing a lot of my AIR gain being offset by losses in others, most namely BLIS and The Warehouse.

I do have another stock which is NZ King Salmon, it's not doing well after I bought last month...:mad ;:

[couta1]

Yes it sure has. Some people think they can pick which part of the economic cycle we are at, I'm not sure anyone really can. There's a strong argument for instance for saying that many European countries are only now beginning to emerge from effects of the GFC and the outlook for growth there is the best its been in years. Still expecting $575m before tax = 37 cps after tax, (risk is to the upside in my opinion) and a reminder that the ten year average PE for AIR is 11.
I have no intention of reducing my position, very happy indeed with the five year dividend yield outlook. Stock is a no fly zone for me at anything over $3, no matter what price it reaches, will be seeking a safer option for my next XOS divvy. Price is over inflated IMO, due to most of the selling coming from that 4% retail pool selling to larger overseas buyers, many of those holders will be thinking they have won lotto, I'm sure they are enjoying their windfall.

[stoploss]

Stock is a no fly zone for me at anything over $3, no matter what price it reaches, will be seeking a safer option for my next XOS divvy. Price is over inflated IMO, due to most of the selling coming from that 4% retail pool selling to larger overseas buyers, many of those holders will be thinking they have won lotto, I'm sure they are enjoying their windfall.

Thanks Couta , every time since $ 2.50 that you have called it overvalued etc etc we have pushed up 15 cents . So looking to take out $ 3.50 in the near future .... even with a 20% retracement from here ( without a S/L) we will still be above your " overvalued , thin air territory "
Keep on calling it ....

[couta1]

Thanks Couta , every time since $ 2.50 that you have called it overvalued etc etc we have pushed up 15 cents . So looking to take out $ 3.50 in the near future .... even with a 20% retracement from here ( without a S/L) we will still be above your " overvalued , thin air territory "
Keep on calling it .... I said I wouldn't buy it over $3, not $2.50, the stock has been re rated since my prior valuation, just because the market continues to drive the price up doesn't mean that's what it's worth, sentiment rules short term. For those that bought at a lower price, all good, but for those picking up the can of late, no safety net included with purchase.

[Eval]

I said I wouldn't buy it over $3, not $2.50, the stock has been re rated since my prior valuation, just because the market continues to drive the price up doesn't mean that's what it's worth, sentiment rules short term. For those that bought at a lower price, all good, but for those picking up the can of late, no safety net included with purchase.

Those buyers are buying since last 2-3 weeks not just buying with blind folded. This is not February. Wake up mate and accept the facts. No time it will hitting to 3.50 & above and you would still stuck with same flute

[stoploss]

Great company, but I don't see value at current prices. I try and avoid buying stocks these days when i consider they are either fully priced or overpriced, and IMO Air is fully priced at $2.50.
Couta don't try and rewrite history .
You could have talked a lot of people out of a good thing with your "opinion"
History shows us you don't have a good call on this .
Fully priced at $ 2.50', I'll look for that one on the Tui billboard next time I drive down the motorway ........

[Raz]

Ha... as good as 3.40... still making money even when I'm wrong, 2017 is a special year!

[couta1]

Couta don't try and rewrite history .
You could have talked a lot of people out of a good thing with your "opinion"
History shows us you don't have a good call on this .
Fully priced at $ 2.50', I'll look for that one on the Tui billboard next time I drive down the motorway ........ Very funny stoploss, but with the variance in the Air SP over the last few years, that Tui billboard could turn around and bite you on the rear end.

[stoploss]

Very funny stoploss, but with the variance in the Air SP over the last few years, that Tui billboard could turn around and bite you on the rear end.

Not with a decent Stoploss in place .....

[tim23]

Very funny stoploss, but with the variance in the Air SP over the last few years, that Tui billboard could turn around and bite you on the rear end.
Better to maybe admit it was a dud call - I've made plenty

[couta1]

Better to maybe admit it was a dud call - I've made plenty Yes we've all made them. The thing I find distasteful here is the bringing up of old posts, which are then used against you. Posts are made from the viewpoint of the moment and should be viewed in that light. As I already said in a post above, Air has been re rated since my $2.50 target, but the question is whether it's worth it's current price, not IMO. PS-The Motley dude reckoned it was overpriced at $3.26, when he last wrote an article on Air, too many variables outside of management control compared to other stocks he reckons.

[JeremyALD]

Yes we've all made them. The thing I find distasteful here is the bringing up of old posts, which are then used against you. Posts are made from the viewpoint of the moment and should be viewed in that light. As I already said in a post above, Air has been re rated since my $2.50 target, but the question is whether it's worth it's current price, not IMO. PS-The Motley dude reckoned it was overpriced at $3.26, when he last wrote an article on Air, too many variables outside of management control compared to other stocks he reckons.

No one can predict the future either. Someone is always going to be wrong so agree unless you've stated something balantly incorrectly, opinions shouldnt be held against you because they are just that, opinions!

[hardt]

Yes we've all made them. The thing I find distasteful here is the bringing up of old posts, which are then used against you. Posts are made from the viewpoint of the moment and should be viewed in that light. As I already said in a post above, Air has been re rated since my $2.50 target, but the question is whether it's worth it's current price, not IMO. PS-The Motley dude reckoned it was overpriced at $3.26, when he last wrote an article on Air, too many variables outside of management control compared to other stocks he reckons.


All they have to do is discredit the person who has an opposing viewpoint rather than tackle the viewpoint at hand... is this hotcopper?

[couta1]

All they have to do is discredit the person who has an opposing viewpoint rather than tackle the viewpoint at hand... is this hotcopper? Would be good if the Air bulls put up a solid argument as to why the stock is worth a $1 more than a year ago, when they achieved their highest annual profit in the history of the company, with this year ranking second to that.

[winner69]

Would be good if the Air bulls put up a solid argument as to why the stock is worth a $1 more than a year ago, when they achieved their highest annual profit in the history of the company, with this year ranking second to that.


Euphoria mate

The world is a happy place at the moment .....with some sectors / stocks nothing can go wrong

Get the gist - will be $1.50 more than a year ago soon - that is what euphoria does, don't fight it.

[JeremyALD]

Euphoria mate

The world is a happy place at the moment .....with some sectors / stocks nothing can go wrong

Get the gist - will be $1.50 more than a year ago soon - that is what euphoria does, don't fight it.

And what happens when the euphoria disappears?

[Baa_Baa]

And what happens when the euphoria disappears?

Simple, your stoploss takes you out. No need for emotions, or endless chatter, let the market do its thing.

[stoploss]

Yes we've all made them. The thing I find distasteful here is the bringing up of old posts, which are then used against you. Posts are made from the viewpoint of the moment and should be viewed in that light. As I already said in a post above, Air has been re rated since my $2.50 target, but the question is whether it's worth it's current price, not IMO. PS-The Motley dude reckoned it was overpriced at $3.26, when he last wrote an article on Air, too many variables outside of management control compared to other stocks he reckons.

Couta forgive me if you find it distasteful .
That was one post of maybe half a dozen from below $ 2.50 where you have said all the way up it is over valued ......( not just one moment )
Now you say it has been re rated , but at the same time still saying it is over priced .
Would have maybe been good if you said at some stage - have looked at the numbers I now value this at $ 3.00.
To reiterate Tourism booming .
Air NZ running a slick operation .
Other posters have pointed out the efficiency of the fleet and low cost of av gas and a good forward hedging policy .
Lions tour , Americas Cup, the relative safety of NZ , clean green Country to visit all very favorable to AIR.NZ
The added bonus of a good management team ( despite their penchant for regular sell downs - pity some of them gave them away )
Plus a board that will be strengthened by the EX PM in due course .
Lots to Love , so we agree to disagree , you are welcome to your opinion . However as a non shareholder your regular calls of over priced come across as nothing but bashing .
This has been in a solid uptrend from $ 2.20, my motivation is more to help others and telling them this is over valued from $2.50 could have cost someone a great trade .
Take a read of some old AAPL forums , plenty of people calling it overvalued at $ 50.00 as it went to $ 700.00 before the 7:1 split .
Cheers S/L

[Joshuatree]

Many thanks stop loss .Good reminder about the impacts we can have have on other people if they are naive or stupid or follow orders, advice ,opinions, directions, self appointed authority figures etc , and if we are stupid enough to act like qualified licensed advisors or get carried away at times. We can be made accountable for our past posts, absolutely; lets be careful out there and make it clear its just an opinion and nothings a certainty and follow no one. And if we all remember the first investing rule ,Don't Lose Money and the 3rd one, Don't Help Other People Lose Money.:eek2: AIR ,I'm holding not folding atpit. Also holding in this sector on ASX ,PTB and AQZ

[hardt]

Would be good if the Air bulls put up a solid argument as to why the stock is worth a $1 more than a year ago, when they achieved their highest annual profit in the history of the company, with this year ranking second to that.

As a non holder here is my "OPINION" that matters more than anything else in this world - case can be made to buy AIR, case can be made to sell AIR.

Personally, I invest based on fundamentals more than market sentiment and momentum... the market's opinion is the only one that counts and I have to take a step back and think what made me miss the 50%+ upside that AIR has seen over the last 6 months - for me, I was stingy with a buy order in the 230s and wasn't bright enough to chase it on the way up after it had a good run ( I was thinking that a pullback absolutely must occur )

Most airliners have experienced significant support from the market over the past half year and I was looking elsewhere :(

Chart includes Qantas, China Southern, Southwest and the Crude index: BRNTB Crude Oil (Nymex)

8972

Despite Air NZ making less money than they were last year the overall sentiment is clearly bullish moving forward... whether that continues or not i have no idea, but the case can be made for an investment in AIR even at these lofty prices so long as you know when to leave it on the table...

Disc: not held

[couta1]

Euphoria mate

The world is a happy place at the moment .....with some sectors / stocks nothing can go wrong

Get the gist - will be $1.50 more than a year ago soon - that is what euphoria does, don't fight it. Euphoria, that hits the nail on the head winner, nothing to do with value aye. I'm just happy I'm not a buyer at current prices, no chance of getting a severe trashing like the Air coaster can dish out, others may like to consider that if they are contemplating taking up a position at such lofty levels. I'll leave the bulls to it now, I'm happy over on planet Spark, not as sensational, but a whole lot safer IMO.

[RTFQ]

AIR has over 1.4billion cash in its war chest to fend off competition, it's in a much stronger position than this time last year looking forward. Just look what it is doing to Hawaiian, whispers are that they can't stand the heat. The American's couldn't during the shoulder season either.



Thru their war chest they have the ability to dictate the terms in respect of revenue sharing routes. They could easily take a million a week loss for a couple of years on the Tasman, as an example, if needed to squeeze their opposition. This is why Qantas will not take them head on with regard to Jetstar.


A couple of months back I thought AIR was going to go south but got back in shortly after, rereading some of Roger's posts swayed me also.

[winner69]

RTFQ - don't forget that a large chunk of that 'war chest' isn't really their money, it's punters money (prepaid fares) that AIR still need to spend cash on flying them to wherever.

AIR had a billion in the bank on the day the government bailed them out many years ago.


AIR collect $50m or so interest a year on that cash - that's good eh.

[sb9]

Well into the 340s now, not long to cross that 350 mark, after that who knows...did someone call 400 is a real possibility as well.

[Beagle]

Shareholders have enjoyed a stellar run this quarter so some consolidation around the current level shouldn't be a surprise to anyone while we wait for further clarity on progress from the company which will come from not only their monthly operating stat's but of course the annual result itself in August and management briefings around that followed by potentially a FY18 forecast at the Annual meeting.
Extract from post 29 June. I am starting to ponder however given the recent SP strength whether my estimate of $575m might be a bit low. I was well under with my half year estimate back in February...maybe the full year result starts with a 6 ?

[RTFQ]

Winner, I was lead to believe this was in addition to forward bookings, but you may well be right. Cheers

[allfromacell]

I think the whole airline industry is worth a lot more theses days then the multiples they have traded on in the past. Oil is looking more likely to stay low, not only because of the glut but also as more countries look start embracing cleaner technology. Planes aren't 'green' in the slightest but it's pretty hard to get around that, the global middle class is growing (with the bulk of this growth coming from Asia) the amount of people flying is growing, cargo is growing. NZ is also in an awesome place to take advantage of theses factors via tourism and a huge population increase now running at around 1.5% P.A! All of this bundled with superb management... What's not to love?

I think the people who believe this company to be overpriced are mislead by the past trading history, looking at the fundamentals, why is it overpriced? I don't see why this company can't trade at $5 as we approach 2020. As MOD and Beagle have pointed out as much as $1.50 worth of potential imputed dividends can be priced in.

I can see an argument for the industry being cyclical and the inherit risk of aviation but I still don't see why this stock should trade at any less than a PE of 10 minus the priced in free cash flow of the early 2020s.

[GTI]

I think the whole airline industry is worth a lot more theses days then the multiples they have traded on in the past. Oil is looking more likely to stay low, not only because of the glut but also as more countries look start embracing cleaner technology. Planes aren't 'green' in the slightest but it's pretty hard to get around that, the global middle class is growing (with the bulk of this growth coming from Asia) the amount of people flying is growing, cargo is growing. NZ is also in an awesome place to take advantage of theses factors via tourism and a huge population increase now running at around 1.5% P.A! All of this bundled with superb management... What's not to love?

I think the people who believe this company to be overpriced are mislead by the past trading history, looking at the fundamentals, why is it overpriced? I don't see why this company can't trade at $5 as we approach 2020. As MOD and Beagle have pointed out as much as $1.50 worth of potential imputed dividends can be priced in.

I can see an argument for the industry being cyclical and the inherit risk of aviation but I still don't see why this stock should trade at any less than a PE of 10 minus the priced in free cash flow of the early 2020s.

Like!👍👍👍👍👍

[Beagle]

Nice post allfromacell. I got to pontificating a little over the weekend about how the analysts with their fancy DCF models have got this so wrong. As recently as mid June 2017 average 12 month price target of analysts was $2.19
My first point of conjecture centers around the structure of their DCF model. All of them seem to make specific profit and cash flow forecasts for five years followed by a terminal growth rate. Their guesses beyond the company's own guidance for FY17 are just that, guesses based on a specific set of assumptions many of which can be badly wrong.
Issue 1. Five year specific cash flow forecasts current in the market encapsulate the 2017 - 2021 period and therefore specifically exclude two years 2022-2023 when AIR is ostensibly on a capex holiday and generating massive free cash flow, perhaps as much as $1 per share each year.
Issue 2. Most of these models have a terminal growth rate beyond the specific five year forecast and those I've seen use 2%. I think that terminal growth rate assumption is fundamentally flawed.
IATA are expecting growth in international travel to continue for the foreseeable future at ~ 5% per annum as it keeps getting cheaper in real terms with increasing fuel efficiency of high tech aircraft.

If broker DCF models encapsulated the tremendous free cash flow up to 2023 of AIR and used a different terminal growth rate assumption they'd kick out a completely different number. I think their models are flawed. Ten year average PE is 11 and my forecast is 37 cps this year.
Now that AIR are in a sustained and disciplined growth trajectory, (that continues to deliver CASK improvements as they leverage profit growth off their $600m fixed cost base) perhaps a slightly higher PE than the historic is warranted ? I don't think $5 at some stage in the years ahead is completely out of the question, not at all.

[BlackPeter]

Just allow me to add some observations to this thread. Booked over the weekend a trip to Europe / Singapore for later in the year.

1) Prices are as low (or actually lower) than what I used to pay 20 years ago for a trip to Europe ... no matter whether you go with Air New Zealand, Singapore Airlines, Qantas or Emirates (that's the carriers I checked); Must be a buyer's (travellers) market.

2) All of the carriers above (but Air New Zealand) offer now a 30kg luggage allowance in economy. AIR offers just meagre 23 kg;

3) Some of the carriers (well, certainly AIR) charge additional "hidden" fees for paying with credit cards (how else do you want to pay over the internet?). Others (like Singapore Airlines) don't.

4) Ah yes - and for my route was Singapore Airlines anyway offering the best connection (but admittedly a home game for them) AND the lowest price (without considering their better handling of credit cards and their better luggage allowance.

Guess which carrier I booked with?

Not writing this to annoy AIR share holders, but I think there are a couple of things to deduct from my experience:

1) AIR is falling back compared to the other carriers in terms of the quality of their offer AND
2) margins can't be that good (for all of them) if they have to drop their prices to 20 year lows ...

Maybe somebody wants to ask AIR management why they risk falling back behind the competition by annoying customers with hidden fees and meagre luggage allowance? It is very easy to damage a brand ... just imagine what might stick in the memories of travellers: AIR - the greedy Airline?

[Beagle]

AIR have a specific Pacific rim focus BP. I would be the first to agree their product offer pricing to Europe is not compelling and I wouldn't hesitate to book Emirates or Singapore airlines if I was travelling to Europe. What they're doing is working very well though and in my opinion FY17 is a watershed year for their business as they have shown the veracity of their business model is extremely robust notwithstanding a substantial amount of new competition.
Nine new super efficient dreamliners sipping fuel quietly with several more arriving in the years ahead...a real bean counters delight those aircraft are and customer satisfaction with them seems very high too from company reports...a classic win-win for shareholders and customers :)
Prices / demand to Europe is very modest at present...with all the terrorism any wonder why !

[couta1]

As the price rises, the dividend yield becomes less and less attractive, excluding specials, for a high risk stock. Like winner says, hype and euphoria rule the day. PS-Perhaps some punters are buying thinking the 13% dividend yield they see is normal, they might need to get their calculator out aye.

[Beagle]

I am forecasting 20 cps annual divvies and 75 cps in specials over FY20-FY22 all fully imputed so approx. $1.75 back / 0.72 $2.43 gross over the next five years.
2.43 / 3.44 = 70.63% = average annual dividend yield of 14.13%, therefore based on my assumptions on a five year view the dividend yield is still very compelling.
I do accept however that any attempt to forecast five years ahead in the aviation industry is subject to significant variation either to the downside or upside.
In my opinion however, superb management and governance goes a long way towards mitigating the risks in a notoriously risky industry.

[GTI]

Well into the 340s now, not long to cross that 350 mark, after that who knows...did someone call 400 is a real possibility as well.

The unstoppable...

[Beagle]

I think the whole airline industry is worth a lot more theses days then the multiples they have traded on in the past. Oil is looking more likely to stay low, not only because of the glut but also as more countries look start embracing cleaner technology. Planes aren't 'green' in the slightest but it's pretty hard to get around that, the global middle class is growing (with the bulk of this growth coming from Asia) the amount of people flying is growing, cargo is growing. NZ is also in an awesome place to take advantage of theses factors via tourism and a huge population increase now running at around 1.5% P.A! All of this bundled with superb management... What's not to love?

I think the people who believe this company to be overpriced are mislead by the past trading history, looking at the fundamentals, why is it overpriced? I don't see why this company can't trade at $5 as we approach 2020. As MOD and Beagle have pointed out as much as $1.50 worth of potential imputed dividends can be priced in.

I can see an argument for the industry being cyclical and the inherit risk of aviation but I still don't see why this stock should trade at any less than a PE of 10 minus the priced in free cash flow of the early 2020s.

I think that's an interesting point to ponder. Just because AIR has an average PE of 11 over the past decade perhaps given IATA expects travel to grow at ~5% for the foreseeable future this suggests its possible a slightly higher PE might be applicable going forward. a PE of 12 for instance on my estimated FY17 earnings of 37cps suggests as much as $4.44 is potentially possible this year giving potential upside in the short term of as much as another dollar per share.

[couta1]

The unstoppable... This is the sharemarket your talking about, not the wind.:D

[see weed]

BP good points you made. 1.. Lower prices all around. 2.. If travellers lost a bit of body weight, then they could up the luggage weight. 3.. Good for shareholders. 4 My answer for 4... Years ago, only the well off could afford to fly. These days every man and his dog wants to fly, even some people on benefits want to fly as cheap as possible, who cares, cram them all into cattle class, they shouldn't be flying anyway:D.

[see weed]

AIR have a specific Pacific rim focus BP. I would be the first to agree their product offer pricing to Europe is not compelling and I wouldn't hesitate to book Emirates or Singapore airlines if I was travelling to Europe. What they're doing is working very well though and in my opinion FY17 is a watershed year for their business as they have shown the veracity of their business model is extremely robust notwithstanding a substantial amount of new competition.
Nine new super efficient dreamliners sipping fuel quietly with several more arriving in the years ahead...a real bean counters delight those aircraft are and customer satisfaction with them seems very high too from company reports...a classic win-win for shareholders and customers :)
Prices / demand to Europe is very modest at present...with all the terrorism any wonder why !
Keep up the good work Beagle and company. I still think $3.50 to $4 is possible. We are all well positioned. Good on the cattle class, make me more $$$$$$ :D.

[Beagle]

No worries mate. I think another point that's worth making on the domestic travel front with an aging baby boomer population and cheaper domestic fares is people may be more inclined to fly almost anywhere now rather than drive. Anything over about 3 hours car travel and I'd rather fly. Taupo is the absolute limit of how far I can be bothered driving these days.

[Marilyn Munroe]

1) AIR is falling back compared to the other carriers in terms of the quality of their offer .....


I would have expected Cullen Airlines "squeeze em in" and bugger the self loading freight's deep vein thrombosis strategy would have caused a drift to the better cabin layout offered by some their competitors.

Doesn't seem to have though.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[see weed]

No worries mate. I think another point that's worth making on the domestic travel front with an aging baby boomer population and cheaper domestic fares is people may be more inclined to fly almost anywhere now rather than drive. Anything over about 3 hours car travel and I'd rather fly. Taupo is the absolute limit of how far I can be bothered driving these days.
But if you were in a new Mustang you could probably get to at least Taihape:).

[see weed]

As the price rises, the dividend yield becomes less and less attractive, excluding specials, for a high risk stock. Like winner says, hype and euphoria rule the day. PS-Perhaps some punters are buying thinking the 13% dividend yield they see is normal, they might need to get their calculator out aye.
That's right. Without calculator my guess is about 6 to 6.5%. It's not too late couta1, get in now before it hits 3.50:t_up:. $4 here we come with nice 5% yld.

[couta1]

That's right. Without calculator my guess is about 6 to 6.5%. It's not too late couta1, get in now before it hits 3.50:t_up:. $4 here we come. Nah mate, I won't touch the stock for divvy or trading, I'd be too nervous as I only hold big holdings ,so too much risk. PS-Might be worth buying again after a certain North Korean nutter pushes a few buttons.

[see weed]

Nah mate, I won't touch the stock for divvy or trading, I'd be too nervous as I only hold big holdings ,so too much risk.
I have been nervous for the last 5 weeks from 2.90 to 3.36 last week. It looks cold but once you have been in for a while it feels good. Just buy a small amount and join the fun. 5 years ago, sold out at 1.35 and had to buy back in at 1.715 up to 3.36, we all been there;).

[couta1]

I have been nervous for the last 5 weeks from 2.90 to 3.36 last week. It looks cold but once you have been in for a while it feels good. Just buy a small amount and join the fun. 5 years ago, sold out at 1.35 and had to buy back in at 1.715 up to 3.36, we all been there;). I'll leave it to you my friend, I all tied up in my current 3 stock portfolio (SUM/SPK/ATM)

[sb9]

The unstoppable...

Well, does seem unstoppable at the moment. Never thought 3.50 would come along so swiftly....

[Traderx]

This has been a truly astonishing run for a large cap stock. I feel like a right fool for selling out in the $2.60s. Uncertainty must be high right here. Most interesting thing will be what happens with competitor capacity over next 12 months. Fuel price outlook heading lower should be supportive of long haul capacity into NZ for both AIR and others, question is do competitors overshoot and start affecting yield outlook again.

[GTI]

This is the sharemarket your talking about, not the wind.:D

The highest is 350 today. What's causing the mercury rise? Ops stats due in two weeks time.

[couta1]

The highest is 350 today. What's causing the mercury rise? Ops stats due in two weeks time. I can't explain the reason for why some people would want to buy at current prices, just like it was hard to explain what drove Xro to $45, probably the same reason, hype combined with Sheeple behaviour. My Gutometer says leave alone, so I'm going to follow that.

[Beagle]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23.

[GTI]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23.

I can't wait anymore... Queued at 3.45.

[winner69]

Now now winner, let's not do a ST forum curse by revoking that (in)famous $3 call...

Hey sb9 - I'm ready to make a $4 call now

The world is so happy at the moment nothing to stop it

Heck even the ABs losing hasn't dampened punters enthusiasm

Looking forward to debating the TA / psycho aspects re round numbers soon - at $4

No worries

[couta1]

Fair enough mate, go with your gut and hope for a pullback to get a better entry point but you can't compare those two stocks / events. AIR still trading on a FY17 PE forecast of under 10, ($3.70 would be 10), XRO still to this day trades on the hope of decent future earnings. One is well supported by fundamental's, the other was well supported by...well...nothing more than speculation at that time, (current prospect of some earnings is looking more reasonable but what's their PE now ?)
$600 million before tax this year is a possibility and that's 38.5 cps after tax and even on a ten year average PE of 11 that's $4.23. Not comparing the stocks mate, more market psychology and sentiment, those factors don't change.

[Beagle]

Fair enough mate I hear what you're saying and have definitely heard of herd behavior before but in this case its supported by excellent fundamentals and the trend is definitely shareholders friend at present.

The other thing you can't rule out is one of Marliyn's mates in the sand state airlines like Qatar quietly building a stake after getting so comprehensively rebuffed by American Airlines http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/22/american-airlines-ceo-says-qatar-proposal-makes-no-sense.html Qatar is a real hole with a truck load of problems, maybe trying to buy some influence around the world with other airlines ? Thing is with AIR, they could buy up to 10% before needing approval from the N.Z. Government to go higher. Of course this is pure speculation but you can't rule it out as a possibility. I for one wouldn't be completely shocked to see a substantial shareholder notice from Qatar at some point in the future. Their route here is probably at marginal profitability...what would they give for a code / revenue share deal with AIR ?

[couta1]

I reckon there's a lot of very wealthy people out there who bought XRO at around $1, and sold over $40, I can't see Air ever giving that sort of return. The herd behaviour makes some wealthy and others very poor.

[stoploss]

I reckon there's a lot of very wealthy people out there who bought XRO at around $1, and sold over $40, I can't see Air ever giving that sort of return. The herd behaviour makes some wealthy and others very poor.
Don't think XRO has ever paid a divvy , the hounds post on the previous page pointed out a circa 14 % return over the next few years in AIR . Gee I'd take that any day if I could lock it in . Slowly but surely is a good way to go ..
imo better than all in without a S/L in something high risk like XRO

[sb9]

Hey sb9 - I'm ready to make a $4 call now

The world is so happy at the moment nothing to stop it

Heck even the ABs losing hasn't dampened punters enthusiasm

Looking forward to debating the TA / psycho aspects re round numbers soon - at $4

No worries

Good one winner, might agree with your call this time around. $4 target looks very achievable from here going by current bullish trend. However airlines being cyclical in nature always sleep with one eye open ;)

[winner69]

I can't wait anymore... Queued at 3.45.

Still on the wait list?

[Raz]

Still on the wait list?

Still sitting on my last 200,000 shares, soon will be double you money for many, already paying enough tax on my realised gains this year. This is a sentiment play, the world has only changed to the extent bank deposits have been flooding into the market... most will be inexperienced investors, for them it will not end well.

[winner69]

Still sitting on my last 200,000 shares, soon will be double you money for many, already paying enough tax on my realised gains this year. This is a sentiment play, the world has only changed to the extent bank deposits have been flooding into the market... most will be inexperienced investors, for them it will not end well.

Billions lost when finance companies went turtle up and billions will be lost when the high yield chasers realise capital losses.

[couta1]

Billions lost when finance companies went turtle up and billions will be lost when the high yield chasers realise capital losses. Like those high yield chasers buying Air shares currently winner, I'm sure that's what you mean.

[winner69]

Like those high yield chasers buying Air shares currently winner, I'm sure that's what you mean.

....not just AIR but many others.

[GTI]

....not just AIR but many others.

I think many ppl will call me idiot to buy Air now...same as to early this year when i followed Mr Buffett to buy Aapl...lets see my winning formula of low pe + good management will lead me through...my apple meal is a good one todate.

[Beagle]

Some Australian investors appear to think AIR's SP at N.Z. $2.30 is relatively good value compared to Qantas at nearly $A4.00 and its hard to disagree, perhaps explaining why it got a kick up today.
According to average analyst estimates on 4 traders QAN currently trades on a FY17 PE of 7.93 v AIR of only 7.02.
Curiously both trade on a forecast PE for FY18 of 7.5 so according to analysts, (if you believe their forecasts for FY18) the relativity of the two share prices is about right. Posted 28 March 2017


Still sitting on my last 200,000 shares, soon will be double you money for many, already paying enough tax on my realised gains this year. This is a sentiment play, the world has only changed to the extent bank deposits have been flooding into the market... most will be inexperienced investors, for them it will not end well.

Its not a phenomenon unique to AIR, in the last quarter we have seen QAN up just on 45% and AIR up 51%. Nobody in their right mind would call QAN a high yield share.
Perhaps investors are now perceiving a better growth / yield environment and a better balance between demand and supply, (constriction on supply through long back order times for new aircraft and increased demand through cheaper pricing and a more stable growth environment)
My view is the market and outlook has changed to the extent that investors are now prepared to ascribe a more normal market PE for airlines rather than the deeply discounted one that prevailed a few months ago. The fact that these two airlines relative share prices have moved pretty much in lockstep as well as other airline prices around the world recovering nicely suggests the goalposts have moved. Many airlines are now trading on PE's that are now normal, (not expensive as many suggest on here) for the airline industry as opposed to being deeply discounted.

This http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/94162697/jetstar-cuts-back-frequency-of-new-plymouth-flights-over-winter-period has gone unnoticed by anyone on here for example. Fact is Jetstar have built a truly awful reputation for cancelling / delaying regional flights and treating their customers with thinly disguised contempt and are reaping the "reward" of what they've sown.

[RTM]

Interesting to see this on Seeking Alpha. I've not seen many (any ? ) NZ stocks featuring there.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086693-air-new-zealand-growth-6-percent-dividends-might-think-look

Nice summary.
Cheers
RTM

[Marilyn Munroe]

The other thing you can't rule out is one of Marliyn's mates in the sand state airlines like Qatar quietly building a stake after getting so comprehensively rebuffed by American Airlines ?

Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker has a reputation for speaking his mind. The directors of AA probably couldn't face board meetings with someone telling them how to run an airline.

Overseas investment in Cullen Airlines. Merger and acquisition specialists who are the pimps of the finance world would have run a ruler over Cullen Airlines. If there were immoral earnings in it for them they would have dressed up their report in stockings and heels and told it to go stand on the street corner. That they haven't or kerb crawlers with fat wallets haven't taken the bait suggests the lady is not attractive enough.

If Qatar wants to flash the cash in Aotearoa why doesn't Qatar Gas farm-in on NZ Oil & Gases Canterbury Basin project?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

One suspects the wrong colored suspenders are being worn Marilyn. So much black ink in the statement of financial performance it would stain red or pink suspenders :)

[winner69]

Interesting to see this on Seeking Alpha. I've not seen many (any ? ) NZ stocks featuring there.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086693-air-new-zealand-growth-6-percent-dividends-might-think-look

Nice summary.
Cheers
RTM

Good eh

Hope it gets some obverseas punters interested big time .....even the 6% yield is huge for them

[Eval]

Plenty of fule left to A380

[GTI]

Still on the wait list?

Still waiting... Lowest 345 today but not my turn yet. Its crazily 351 now!

[winner69]

Still waiting... Lowest 345 today but not my turn yet. Its crazily 351 now!

Should have checked in earlier eh.

You have been rebooked in the next available flight - and the fares have gone up




(As a matter of interest why bid 345 - when its 400 a few cents wouldn't have made difference?)

[Beagle]

Plenty of fule left to A380

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner Nothing to concern oneself until we hit FL430 :)

[Eval]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner Nothing to concern oneself until we hit FL430 :)

Yep Beagle, nothing to concern. Have topped up another 50k volumes @ 3.48/3.49 today.

[Raz]

Since I joined here in Jan 2016 trading five shares the share movement in AIR has been plain silly 😜

[couta1]

Since I joined here in Jan 2016 trading five shares the share movement in AIR has been plain silly  Yes Raz, I think silly is a good choice of words, re the Air share price movement over the last while, if you look up the definition of the word. I feel real sorry for the ones holding the can at the end of the row. The annual profit would need to be over 800 million to justify the current price.

[Eval]

Yes Raz, I think silly is a good choice of words, re the Air share price movement over the last while, if you look up the definition of the word. I feel real sorry for the ones holding the can at the end of the row. The annual profit would need to be over 800 million to justify the current price.

you just keep moaning. we are used to with your same flute since February. its not going to stop the sp price movement. buyers are not buying with bind folded eyes.

[Beagle]

Yes Raz, I think silly is a good choice of words, re the Air share price movement over the last while, if you look up the definition of the word. I feel real sorry for the ones holding the can at the end of the row. The annual profit would need to be over 800 million to justify the current price.

Mates tell their mates when they're plain wrong. It really is this simple. The 10 year average PE is 11. At $575m before tax = 37 cps after tax. 11 x 37 = $4.07. Of course if they make more than $575m before tax then based on the decade average PE they're worth more. Just because a share has been cheap in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will revert to being a bargain anytime soon. If I thought they were overpriced I would be selling. I am continuing to hold all of my shares and have done for quite some time now and it continues to be my #1 market position by value.

[couta1]

you just keep moaning. we are used to with your same flute since February. its not going to stop the sp price movement. buyers are not buying with bind folded eyes. Have you surveyed all the buyers to be sure of that fact?

[Rossimarnz]

Yes Raz, I think silly is a good choice of words, re the Air share price movement over the last while, if you look up the definition of the word. I feel real sorry for the ones holding the can at the end of the row. The annual profit would need to be over 800 million to justify the current price.

If you believe the special dividend story (most often outlined by Beagle) then the future cashflow is likely to be similar to a $800m profit if not better. Maybe the price is justified on that basis?

[Eval]

Have you surveyed all the buyers to be sure of that fact?

Don't have to surveyed.
i had few mates telling me that their well known NZ brokers are telling them to buy in AIR.

Just wait and watch for another four weeks and the facts will be in front of your eyes.

[777]

One of the Rockefella's was once asked how he had made so much money and he replied that he had sold all his stock too early.

[couta1]

One of the Rockefella's was once asked how he had made so much money and he replied that he had sold all his stock too early. Love it, doesn't matter how much paper profit your sitting on, it's all theoretical until you sell. I prefer facts to theory and keep a short account with the market these days ( No I don't mean shorting shares)

[GTI]

Should have checked in earlier eh.

You have been rebooked in the next available flight - and the fares have gone up




(As a matter of interest why bid 345 - when its 400 a few cents wouldn't have made difference?)

Very true, will check in earlier tomorrow, hopefully not 360

[Scrunch]

Still waiting... Lowest 345 today but not my turn yet. Its crazily 351 now!

3.56 was my exit point and it was hit today. I'm struggling to see that $4b is the correct market cap for it. To many of the negatives that lurk in the airline industry appear to have been discounted.

[couta1]

Don't have to surveyed.
i had few mates telling me that their well known NZ brokers are telling them to buy in AIR.

Just wait and watch for another four weeks and the facts will be in front of your eyes. HaHa, probably the same brokers that didn't want a bar of the stock a few months ago, they don't give a toss about when your mates buy and sell, as long as they get two clips of the ticket. PS-Facts aren't going to persuade me to buy the stock at these lofty prices, in case you didn't realise, there are other excellent and safer dividend paying stocks on the NZX.

[Eval]

HaHa, probably the same brokers that didn't want a bar of the stock a few months ago, they don't give a toss about when your mates buy and sell, as long as they get two clips of the ticket. PS-Facts aren't going to persuade me to buy the stock at these lofty prices, in case you didn't realise, there are other excellent and safer dividend paying stocks on the NZX.

Need guts. For your kind information have topped off another 50k volumes at 3.49 this afternoon. Holding over 200k volumes in AIR. 100% Portfolio.

[couta1]

Need guts. For your kind information have topped off another 50k volumes at 3.49 this afternoon. Holding over 200k volumes in AIR. 100% Portfolio. I think you might be trying to teach your grandmother to suck eggs re the guts comment. 100% of portfolio, no problem if you have enough conviction.

[RupertBear]

Need guts. For your kind information have topped off another 50k volumes at 3.49 this afternoon. Holding over 200k volumes in AIR. 100% Portfolio.

Couta is very well known for having plenty of guts when it comes to investing. Good luck to you having 100% of your portfolio in just one share :eek2:

[Eval]

Couta is very well known for having plenty of guts when it comes to investing. Good luck to you having 100% of your portfolio in just one share :eek2:

This is not first time i have done holding 100% Portfolio in one. Have done quite a few times overs the last 9 years with lot of success

[RupertBear]

This is not first time i have done holding 100% Portfolio in one. Have done quite a few times overs the last 9 years with lot of success

Yes it wouldnt be for this little bear, it would give me sleepless nights! But yes if you get your timing right you would do very very well I imagine! :D

[couta1]

Couta is very well known for having plenty of guts when it comes to investing. Good luck to you having 100% of your portfolio in just one share :eek2: Thanks for your kind words RB, suffering significant losses and not giving up takes the most guts of all, something you have also been through, yet you'rve kept going.

[Xerof]

humming along nicely - forget the A330, A350, looking good for A380:scared:

Only three weeks since you were all warned (again) of the speeding bullet. I then called 400 a week later. Still on target guys. Stay strong if holding, as the share price is STRONGLY TRENDING

[troyvdh]

sorry sorry I have to delete...meant for SUM....sorry

[workingdad]

Just allow me to add some observations to this thread. Booked over the weekend a trip to Europe / Singapore for later in the year.

1) Prices are as low (or actually lower) than what I used to pay 20 years ago for a trip to Europe ... no matter whether you go with Air New Zealand, Singapore Airlines, Qantas or Emirates (that's the carriers I checked); Must be a buyer's (travellers) market.

2) All of the carriers above (but Air New Zealand) offer now a 30kg luggage allowance in economy. AIR offers just meagre 23 kg;

3) Some of the carriers (well, certainly AIR) charge additional "hidden" fees for paying with credit cards (how else do you want to pay over the internet?). Others (like Singapore Airlines) don't.

4) Ah yes - and for my route was Singapore Airlines anyway offering the best connection (but admittedly a home game for them) AND the lowest price (without considering their better handling of credit cards and their better luggage allowance.

Guess which carrier I booked with?

Not writing this to annoy AIR share holders, but I think there are a couple of things to deduct from my experience:

1) AIR is falling back compared to the other carriers in terms of the quality of their offer AND
2) margins can't be that good (for all of them) if they have to drop their prices to 20 year lows ...

Maybe somebody wants to ask AIR management why they risk falling back behind the competition by annoying customers with hidden fees and meagre luggage allowance? It is very easy to damage a brand ... just imagine what might stick in the memories of travellers: AIR - the greedy Airline?

I agree, I am an AIR flyer, the koru club for domestic flying is the only real offering in NZ putting them at the top of a list of one in my books but when it comes to international AIR are good but others are raising the bar. I flew Emirates today in an A380, their lounge in Melbourne is considerably better than AIR's, the planes seating and service are similar but overall I felt today that Emirates is one I will look at for international flights from here on and will quite likely be leaning towards them. It feels weird to say that having flown 95% AIR over the years but that's my current thoughts on it as an avid supporter for a long time.


I sold half my holding (not large) in the mid 2.30's range banking a good gain and still holding the other half with some loose stoploss' in place but happy to hold for now.

[Raz]

I agree, I am an AIR flyer, the koru club for domestic flying is the only real offering in NZ putting them at the top of a list of one in my books but when it comes to international AIR are good but others are raising the bar. I flew Emirates today in an A380, their lounge in Melbourne is considerably better than AIR's, the planes seating and service are similar but overall I felt today that Emirates is one I will look at for international flights from here on and will quite likely be leaning towards them. It feels weird to say that having flown 95% AIR over the years but that's my current thoughts on it as an avid supporter for a long time.


I sold half my holding (not large) in the mid 2.30's range banking a good gain and still holding the other half with some loose stoploss' in place but happy to hold for now.

AIR domestic often offers a better package in economy than international for space. The Koru lounges are average and often crowded. The key advantage of Koru for me is the space seats and priority boarding.

It has been that way for a good five years. AIR is like Disneyland, they degraded their service, ask a premium and continue to get away with it given their strong brand. Usually only seasoned travellers look at the options. Combined with a strong brand a lot of flyers have limited options to many places or inferior competitors. i.e AKL - LAX i.e AA lack depth of service, Hawaiian airlines is an budget carrier to Honolulu etc.

If on your way to asia, ME or europe then the quality options open up, Singapore airlines, Emirates and Lufthansa offer superior economy, similar to what was provided for seating, hot towels and food service similar to the 80s on AIR, often at a better price, naturally with the technology of today. The premium services are simply another level.

Still AIRs strategy works and thats why I'm a shareholder not always a flyer.

[mondograss]

Having flown Hawaiian recently, I have to say that their "Extra Comfort" seats are well worth the extra $150 or so in cost. Nowhere near as expensive or as flash as AIR's premium economy but actually very adequate for the 8 hours to Honolulu.

[Raz]

Having flown Hawaiian recently, I have to say that their "Extra Comfort" seats are well worth the extra $150 or so in cost. Nowhere near as expensive or as flash as AIR's premium economy but actually very adequate for the 8 hours to Honolulu.

Did you notice the cabins run hot? A lot of people get sick on the overheated cabins..

[janner]

Having flown Hawaiian recently, I have to say that their "Extra Comfort" seats are well worth the extra $150 or so in cost. Nowhere near as expensive or as flash as AIR's premium economy but actually very adequate for the 8 hours to Honolulu.

I personally find all seats VERY uncomfortable.. Skinny Arse.. Maybe my problem..

[mondograss]

Did you notice the cabins run hot? A lot of people get sick on the overheated cabins..

No actually it was fine, perhaps even a little on the chilly side (and I'm someone who tends to run hot so I really notice when the temperature gets up). Both my wife and I had blankets over us the whole time. Mind you it was a very new Airbus.

My wife and I are both people who like to stretch our legs out, so the extra leg room of the Extra Comfort seats was very welcome. Not quite so fussed about the padding in the seat, but it was fine for us, neither of us felt uncomfortable at the end.

The only thing I do think Hawaiian need to do is offer a bigger selection of movies. It's not that they aren't current, it's just that on a flight of that length I'm going to watch at least 2 movies, more likely 3 and I was struggling for something I wanted to watch by the end.

[Beagle]

I think its perhaps time to lighten-up a bit. To lighten the mood here's an interesting look back at AIR's safety video's over the years http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11889319 What's you favorite ? For some strange reason :D mine is Safety in Paradise 2014.

[winner69]

I think its perhaps time to lighten-up a bit. To lighten the mood here's an interesting look back at AIR's safety video's over the years http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11889319 What's you favorite ? For some strange reason :D mine is Safety in Paradise 2014.

Jeez Mr Beagle - quick read and I thought heck you selling some AIR shares - lighten up in other words

[Beagle]

Jeez Mr Beagle - quick read and I thought heck you selling some AIR shares - lighten up in other words

No not me mate. Relaxed and enjoying the long haul flight...looking forward to the next meal service :)

[Marilyn Munroe]

AIR domestic often offers a better package in economy than international for space. The Koru lounges are average and often crowded. The key advantage of Koru for me is the space seats and priority boarding.


I was discussing airline lounges with a seasoned international traveler. His take on the situation was airline lounges(not just Cullen Airlines) are often overcrowded bun fights. His preference was to use an up-market bar or restaurant where available. He said the cost averaged out to not much more than a lounge subscription with a more pleasant experience.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[BlackPeter]

I was discussing airline lounges with a seasoned international traveler. His take on the situation was airline lounges(not just Cullen Airlines) are often overcrowded bun fights. His preference was to use an up-market bar or restaurant where available. He said the cost averaged out to not much more than a lounge subscription with a more pleasant experience.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Not sure I'd agree. Has your seasoned international traveller a lot of long haul experience?
Not that easy to find in airports an upmarket bar / restaurant where you can have a shower - or a desk to do some work or a quiet place to restore after a long flight - or even some place to lie down, close your eyes and rely on the reception staff to wake you up for the next connection.

Agree however with some of the previous posters that the AIR lounges (I have seen) are certainly not the top of the cream. However - you have with the Koru card access to all STAR alliance lounges, and some of them are pretty good.

[arc]

Is this the start of the deflation... maths trends look interesting
Monday and Tuesday were mostly all hype and no substantial big bids...

Time now 4:25 and the robots are back... must have just been a brief pause for a picnic on the way...

[babymonster]

Good to see it comes back a bit. It was too hot.

[couta1]

Good to see it comes back a bit. It was too hot. Will need to be a long descent before some passengers would look at rebooking a flight.:cool:

[arc]

Will need to be a long descent before some passengers would look at rebooking a flight.:cool:

Depending on their watchfulness theres either a car waiting at the bottom or an ambulance..

But who knows what tomorrow may bring...

[Beagle]

U.S. airlines and QAN down ~ 2% overnight / today. No worries, just moving in line with the sector.

[see weed]

No not me mate. Relaxed and enjoying the long haul flight...looking forward to the next meal service :)
Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day;).

[GTI]

Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day;).

I managed to onboard with ticket 349 yesterday...

[Beagle]

I managed to onboard with ticket 349 yesterday...

Welcome on board. Put on a movie and enjoy the flight :)...oh nearly forgot...to set the mood watch the safety in paradise video for which I provided a link further up this page :D

[sb9]

Looks like the afternoon rally is about to start with volume picking...

[tim23]

Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day;).
Often have rallied strongly post result - lets hope so again the $4 is possible

[Baa_Baa]

Repetition and reputation don't go hand in hand. Applies here and all threads. Look at Mod, for example who posts only occasionally and has huge rep, whereas others trot out the same old same old, day after day, usually re-enforcing what Mod said months ago. Choose wisely whose rhetoric one listens to, moreso what one follows. Just saying.

BAA

[Beagle]

Hi folks. Thought I would add my 2c before disappearing again for awhile. Still haven't sold a share.

Been a tough year obviously. I think most of us underestimated the impact to yields that the lower oil price/competition would bring. It's a global phenomenon. Certainly my FY17 earnings estimates have fallen from 40-45c down to 30-35c. That said the share price move down has been dramatic, leaving the company (imho) significantly undervalued, as has been the case for about the last 5 years (has it been that long...).

I certainly knew that FY16 was peak, and perhaps naively thought the dividend / cash-flow story would support the stock. Clearly the negative momentum and uncertainty on yields has mean't a tough devaluation, and risk being priced into the stock.

Where to from here then?

For the ST investor: Yield comparisons get easier in January, so should the operating stats firm up I would expect a re-rating towards 2.50, which values the stock on a reasonable 8x PE.

For the LT investor: Personally i'm not too concerned whether AIR make 28 or 32c in FY17 EPS. The question is sustainability and ideally growth in profit from there. If sustained (along with cash flow) there is a bonanza in FY19-20. I did a few figures and have spoken to the CFO, basically over the next 4 years (if things stay stable), AIR could pay $1.80 in dividends. That's based on a 50c special in FY19, and a 60c special in 2020 plus recurring twenty something ordinary. Over 5 years, you basically get your entire capital back, so if the stock is still at $2, you double your money (15% p.a). Any growth is cream on top.

I wouldn't be so tough on management either. Yes I agree they are too conservative, but with a government shareholder that's natural. As for the pay they are delivering so what's the problem? I would say we are lucky to have them. The new IR is good too.

Best, millimod :cool: Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.

Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.

[BlackPeter]

Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.

Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.

Roger, not sure whether you do yourself a lot of favours by continuously bagging posters who warned that the AIR euphoria might end some day (actually, I think I was one of them). Sure - use your licence to brag, but don't overdo it.

I don't think anybody said at that stage that AIR can't go up ... people (well, at least me) just pointed to the inherent risks in airlines which should (in my view) command a greater reward.

Now, obviously - some people (including yourself) took the risk - and so far are reaping the rewards. Good on you, but while risk taking is a trait, being lucky is just that. Look - if I tell my teenage son that it is stupid and risky to drive without wearing a seatbelt, than he might laugh at me. The next day he might tell me - look daddy, you told me it is dumb to drive without seat belt but I did do it and and I am fine. You have been wrong - ha ha ha. Same with you. We told you it is risky to buy airline shares, you bought them, the risks didn't eventuate (well, so far) and now you feel smug and over the moon.

As far as I am concerned - nobody can predict where the price of any share will go ... but I still see the risks circling around AIR (as around any other airline). Tourism is peaking - and running into its limits. The usual risks (increased competition, economic turndown, terrorism, pilots with mental health issues, volcanic eruptions) didn't go away - and the SP is clearly at a long term max, meaning that potential future rewards are dropping while the risks don't go away.

I guess it is up to any individual how they assess these risks. However - don't tell me you have been able to foresee that we had no major terror attack, no lost plane and no volcanic eruption over the recent period.

Discl: while I do have several children, they all are beyond their teens and none of them (to my best knowledge) ever drove without wearing a seatbelt - i.e. the example above is just made up;).

[Beagle]

Certainly not "continuous", I absolutely refute that. All I am saying BP, (wasn't aimed at you) is that some posters made some very interesting calls on AIR when it was down under $2 in late 2016 and new members on here might like to go back on this thread and read some of the posts over that period. Not naming names but I am entitled too and was responding to Baa Baa's post which I am sure you would have gathered. Some posters are probably entitled to feel content having backed this company and its management through thick and thin and against a barrage of bearish comments on here in late 2016. All stocks carry risks BP.

BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more :)

[winner69]

Beagle / BP - I for one mentioned $1.50 was a possibly at the time- based on long term cyclical trends. Wasn't I really stupid

However been a great ride since - doubled my money since.

Have broken my long outstanding rule 'Don't invest in airlines winner'. Always thought it was tempting fate and if I bought a AIRplane would crash and I couldn't have lived knowing I might have been a cause if so many deaths, Still worried.

Also keep reminding myself of Mr P bit if wisdom 'the market giveth, but the market taketh away'. Especially good advise for a 'cyclical' like AIR which is currently trading at high multiples (modandum says high multiples only when profits are bad - but AIR heading to its 2nd highest ever profit ever)

None the less. $4 beckons soon. Good stuff

[Beagle]

Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash :)...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern :eek2:

[winner69]

Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash :)...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern :eek2:

Look at this mate ....how not to land at Wellington. Did well the 2nd time around

Always quite a thrill when they decide to take off again while in the air - experienced it a few times myself

Amazing hyperlapse by Mark

http://instagram.com/p/BWdivhNg0Q7/

[stoploss]

BP , can you explain -nobody can predict where the price of any share will go . Then , "SP is clearly at long term max " So sounds like you are calling a top and predicting it to go down ?

[Eval]

Nothing to concern.. heading to $4 very soon. Moners will moan who haven't got hands on this bird

[RTM]

BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more :)

Great choice Roger....its all about risk.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/honda-type-r-tcr-performance-specifications-pictures/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DT:%20Brief%20Daily%202017-07-13&utm_term=DT%20Newsletter%20-%20Daily%20Subscribers

You can get around the safety belt thing by buying a buckle that you can pop in independent of the belt.
And yes...I have AIR shares still, am trying to figure out whether to keep or sell as they are very high, and would like to thank the Beagle and Mod and others for all the opinions and analysis expressed. Very helpful.

Enjoy your Friday...lovely here in the Far North at the moment.

[mikeybycrikey]

I think the problem I've got with all the spruikers and rampers on here is that as the price of any stock gets higher, their cries that "the sky is the limit" and "this time is different" start to get deafening.

Things are going pretty well right now but airlines are a low margin business with potentially a lot of competition.

AIR is sitting pretty right now but all it took a few years ago was a couple of planes flying into a building and profit was banished from the whole industry for a couple of years.

Right now, it could be something as simple as the Auckland property market cooling off and interest rates rising slightly for the property cash machine to stop working. This might cause a few newly rich Auckland property millionaires to stop flying business class everywhere.

Or maybe with this global warming thing, airlines might stop getting a free-ride.

If either of these things were to happen, we might be back at 170 just like last time the AIR forums went crazy with thoughts of the impending rise to cruising altitude of 400 or beyond.

Anything could happen tomorrow yet we're banking on a stream of dividends 3-5 years away!?!

Low margin. Cyclical. Risky. Don't forget it.

Disc: I'm still in but every day get closer to selling.

[BlackPeter]

BP , can you explain -nobody can predict where the price of any share will go . Then , "SP is clearly at long term max " So sounds like you are calling a top and predicting it to go down ?

Trying to be clever or missed maths lessons at school? Have a look at the chart - where is the long term maximum on this graph?

8992

Obviously - tomorrow is another day, and nobody can predict whether the AIR longterm maximum is tomorrow, next month or next year at a different point :p;

Never heard about a 100 year weather event coming every couple of years or the hottest year ever - superseded every couple of years?

But I am sure you knew that ... so what exactly was the point of your post?

[Raz]

I think the problem I've got with all the spruikers and rampers on here is that as the price of any stock gets higher, their cries that "the sky is the limit" and "this time is different" start to get deafening.

Things are going pretty well right now but airlines are a low margin business with potentially a lot of competition.

AIR is sitting pretty right now but all it took a few years ago was a couple of planes flying into a building and profit was banished from the whole industry for a couple of years.

Right now, it could be something as simple as the Auckland property market cooling off and interest rates rising slightly for the property cash machine to stop working. This might cause a few newly rich Auckland property millionaires to stop flying business class everywhere.

Or maybe with this global warming thing, airlines might stop getting a free-ride.

If either of these things were to happen, we might be back at 170 just like last time the AIR forums went crazy with thoughts of the impending rise to cruising altitude of 400 or beyond.

Anything could happen tomorrow yet we're banking on a stream of dividends 3-5 years away!?!

Low margin. Cyclical. Risky. Don't forget it.

Disc: I'm still in but every day get closer to selling.

Nice post, anyone who has made money on AIR had paid a price for it... unless you do not concern yourself with capital preservation.

Me thinks some here could be a touch more kinder to others on the thread.... as some of the largest rampers have also been humble... at least once over the past 18 months with AIR.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/acc9b764/air-nz-wins-supreme-court-fight-with-pilots-union-over-collective-agreements.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20wins%20Supreme%20Court%20f ight%20with%20pilots%20union%20over%20collective%2 0agreements&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20wins%20Supreme%20Court%20fi ght%20with%20pilots%20union%20over%20collective%20 agreements+CID_5ae6b86237ef9c218703e5d9c4b23d38&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleacc9b764air-nz-wins-supreme-court-fight-with-pilots-union-over-collective-agreementshtml

[Beagle]

Great choice Roger....its all about risk.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/honda-type-r-tcr-performance-specifications-pictures/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DT:%20Brief%20Daily%202017-07-13&utm_term=DT%20Newsletter%20-%20Daily%20Subscribers

You can get around the safety belt thing by buying a buckle that you can pop in independent of the belt.
And yes...I have AIR shares still, am trying to figure out whether to keep or sell as they are very high, and would like to thank the Beagle and Mod and others for all the opinions and analysis expressed. Very helpful.

Enjoy your Friday...lovely here in the Far North at the moment.

You're most welcome mate.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11890883
I know it's a cliché but its the caliber of AIR's staff that make the difference.
What's the bet that most of the people on that flight, (if nothing had of been otherwise said) would have otherwise be really scared ?

[hamish]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11890883
I know it's a cliché but its the caliber of AIR's staff that make the difference.
What's the bet that most of the people on that flight, (if nothing had of been otherwise said) would have otherwise be really scared ?

I was actually on this inbound Wellington flight, returning from Ho Chi Minh to WLG via AKL. As mentioned in the article, the service on this flight was excellent and the Captain did a very good job communicating before, during and after the flight to re-assure customers. He outlined that it was perfectly safe flying conditions for this aircraft and assured also that flying directly into the wind true southerly with no cross-wind actually made quite easy (I have a commercial pilot licence and my own small aircraft, can confirm this)

Once landed, he came out and greeted all the passengers warmly along with the cabin crew. Was a good touch. Funny enough, after 4 years travel to AKL each week..this was actually a relatively tame landing..... Northerly, buffeting cross wind approaches a lot more volatile. The walk to get the car from long term car-parking was more life threatening - pitch black, 50knot winds, hail, windchill factor making temp minus zero.

Air NZ service to / from Vietnam was excellent. Check-in at both ends was efficient. Given gold elite, we managed to get upgraded to Premium Economy both ways and my wife's 'gifted' upgrades went through also. In-flight service, food was great.. Unlimited champagne top-ups made sure we slept soundly!

Anyone else get nostalgia when you board an Air NZ flight from a foreign country to come home? They had 'how bizarre' from OMC playing .. made me smile

Kicking myself a little re Air shares. It was my largest holding and was quite significant. Sold out around $2.80 and made great gains over past 14 months with divies also, yet now looking at current price some weeks later with some wry smiles.. Well done to all those who still hold after the dip. Really is a solid Co. with good management team in place.

[Raz]

Anyone else get nostalgia when you board an Air NZ flight from a foreign country to come home? They had 'how bizarre' from OMC playing .. made me smile

.

It gets me every time I hear a kiwi accent...usually near boarding..you can go for a fair stretch... in a lot business circles overseas before you meet another kiwi....

[blackcap]

It get me every time I hear a kiwi accent...usually near bording..you can go for a fear stretch in a lot business circles overseas before you meet another kiwi....

Just flew into Shanghai on Air NZ. My partner got an upgrade (she had requested one), but luckily I had a whole row to myself in economy and to top it off it was a SKY Couch. Very pleasant experience, managed to get some sleep. However I am averagely tall and it just is not good enough to be able to lay flat out and so in normal circumstances I probably would not pay for it especially if I was with my partner as it would be too cramped. Staff were exceptional and nothing else to complain about. Bit of a worry to see this flight at about 70% capacity at a guess... but that may be normal? Just an anecdote for your AIR fans :)

[Baa_Baa]

Impressive. 9 out of the past 10 months up (so far), a study in volatility and long term technical breakdowns / breakouts for the chartists.

Log Scale Monthly, 6EMA/10EMA (approximates 50/200EMA). $3.74 next technical resistance target.
8994

Check stops.
BAA

[Raz]

Impressive. 9 out of the past 10 months up (so far), a study in volatility and long term technical breakdowns / breakouts for the chartists.

Log Scale Monthly, 6EMA/10EMA (approximates 50/200EMA). $3.74 next technical resistance target.
8994

Check stops.
BAA

Ill take that!

[Sideshow Bob]

Just flew into Shanghai on Air NZ. My partner got an upgrade (she had requested one), but luckily I had a whole row to myself in economy and to top it off it was a SKY Couch. Very pleasant experience, managed to get some sleep. However I am averagely tall and it just is not good enough to be able to lay flat out and so in normal circumstances I probably would not pay for it especially if I was with my partner as it would be too cramped. Staff were exceptional and nothing else to complain about. Bit of a worry to see this flight at about 70% capacity at a guess... but that may be normal? Just an anecdote for your AIR fans :)

Flew AKL/HK week before last. Booked late but full both ways, including PE and business. From going up there a few times in the last year, doing well on this route.

Return flight delayed substantially and diverted to Chch, and got home a day late. No fault of staff or plane, just one of those things that sometimes happen with international travel. Staff very very good.

Was waiting for accomodation etc and some of the outbound passengers were delayed out of Chch to get to Hawaii. Felt very sorry for the ground staff as some passengers getting stroppy - especially as weather related.

[johnluangco]

Interesting article about percentage of foreign ownership at Air New Zealand.

"Outside of the government's 52 per cent stake just 9 per cent of Air New Zealand is now owned by individual and institutional Kiwi investors."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11890005

[Valuegrowth]

Globally, as I said still there are opportunities in industries such as Airlines, food, hotels and restaurants. So far airlines stocks such as Easyjet and Air New Zealand have done well in 2017.

[Robomo]

Just flew into Shanghai on Air NZ. My partner got an upgrade (she had requested one), but luckily I had a whole row to myself in economy and to top it off it was a SKY Couch. Very pleasant experience, managed to get some sleep. However I am averagely tall and it just is not good enough to be able to lay flat out and so in normal circumstances I probably would not pay for it especially if I was with my partner as it would be too cramped. Staff were exceptional and nothing else to complain about. Bit of a worry to see this flight at about 70% capacity at a guess... but that may be normal? Just an anecdote for your AIR fans :)

Flew to Timaru on Friday night. Flight was 104% capacity with 52 passengers on 50 seats (2 babies on laps!). AKL-WGN flight also full and standing room only in Auckland lounge. Honolulu-Auckland last week was full, could not get an upgrade to Premium Economy as all seats taken by full-fare paying passengers. All bodes well for an excellent financial result!

[couta1]

Interesting article about percentage of foreign ownership at Air New Zealand.

"Outside of the government's 52 per cent stake just 9 per cent of Air New Zealand is now owned by individual and institutional Kiwi investors."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11890005 This article just confirms what I've been saying for quite a while now, that kiwi Insto's don't like Air. It's easy to see why the price has risen so much, basically a diminishing pool of sellers for these overseas players to buy stock from, yet the retail fish seem to have been more than happy to ditch this stock compared with the power companies, which have a more loyal following by their kiwi holders. One good thing about this is, once the price tops out and the overseas players can't buy stuff all anymore, volatility will enter again and the Aircoaster will return, look forward to that. PS-Hope it's a real wild ride.

[Eval]

the Aircoaster will return, look forward to that. PS-Hope it's a real wild ride.

You will have to wait a while for your wish to come true. You may take a break from AIR fourms for now and check back in 3-4 months later again.

Chart wise looking solid. Next stop is 3.74 in next week or so

[couta1]

You will have to wait a while for your wish to come true. You may take a break from AIR fourms for now and check back in 3-4 months later again About a week from now and then again a month after that, I'll be too busy flying down the slopes in Q/town to worry about forums. I'll be flying Air both times, but I don't really have a choice as Jetstar stopped flying that route around 3 years ago.:D

[see weed]

About a week from now and then again a month after that, I'll be too busy flying down the slopes in Q/town to worry about forums. I'll be flying Air both times, but I don't really have a choice as Jetstar stopped flying that route around 3 years ago.:D
If you are still reading, thank you for your support and flying AIR:). Good read on front page of Business Herald this morning about AIR, overseas owners of about 39% up from 12% in the last 4 months.

[GTI]

If you are still reading, thank you for your support and flying AIR:). Good read on front page of Business Herald this morning about AIR, overseas owners of about 39% up from 12% in the last 4 months.

"A lot of local fund managers don't like Air New Zealand," he said.

But Andrew Thompson, an associate at JBWere who puts together its annual report on foreign investment on the NZX, said from a global perspective Air New Zealand was seen as a well-run and respected airline.

👍👍👍

[Beagle]

Interestingly the 4% retail shareholding and 5% N.Z. institutional holding was as at 31 March 2017, a total of ~ just 101m shares (1,123m x 9%)
When AIR presented at the Maquarie investor day in Australia on 4 May 2017 the SP was just $2.60. https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/airnz-presentation-macquarie-australasia-conference-2017.pdf
Based on information in that presentation average daily volume is 1.5m shares or in an average month of just over 20 trading days 30m per month or since 1 April 2017 about (3.5 months) approx. 105 million shares would have changed hands.

With broker analysts who as recently as 31 May 2017 had an average 12 month price target of just $2.19 on AIR and even now are only averaging just on ~ $2.80 one can only wonder about the paucity of shares outside of N.Z. Govt control that are now owned by Kiwi's and Kiwi based institutions ? I don't think many Kiwi's understand the brand value of AIR. That core parochial instinct to sometimes want to back one's own team. In a world where many pilots are now being predominantly trained on flight simulators perhaps at a subliminal level, (especially landing at Wellington or Queenstown into a big storm), perhaps Kiwi's trust Air New Zealand pilots who they know have been trained the Kiwi way ?

[Ggcc]

I think it is simply overseas investors believe in The honourable John Key. Since that announcement the share price took off..... not taking away from the spotlight that this is a great company run extremely well!! I do think politically, that John is a trusted and a well liked politician by overseas investors. I would not invest at these prices into the company, as if something goes wrong in the world airlines stocks generally get dumped in a hurry.

not holding this stock so do your own research.

[Beagle]

I think it is simply overseas investors believe in The honourable John Key. Since that announcement the share price took off..... not taking away from the spotlight that this is a great company run extremely well!! I do think politically, that John is a trusted and a well liked politician by overseas investors. I would not invest at these prices into the company, as if something goes wrong in the world airlines stocks generally get dumped in a hurry.

not holding this stock so do your own research.

Appointment was announced 1 May 2017 when the SP was $2.50. I'd speculate your theory has a lot of merit. Happy holder, still trades on a very sensible PE unlike a LOT of other N.Z. stocks.

[Snow Leopard]

...still trades on a very sensible PE unlike a LOT of other N.Z. stocks.

It is an airline and thus, by definition, is very over-priced .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

$3.56 = 2 x $1.78 (and then there was the divvy)

[nocomment]

I think it is simply overseas investors believe in The honourable John Key. Since that announcement the share price took off..... not taking away from the spotlight that this is a great company run extremely well!! I do think politically, that John is a trusted and a well liked politician by overseas investors. I would not invest at these prices into the company, as if something goes wrong in the world airlines stocks generally get dumped in a hurry.

not holding this stock so do your own research.

im inclined to agree. i wonder if the jk effect could work on other companies? smart move by the air nz board

[Beagle]

It is an airline and thus, by definition, is very over-priced .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

$3.56 = 2 x $1.78 (and then there was the divvy)

Overpriced relative to what other airline PT ? 10 year average PE is 11 and unless my steam powered abacus is due for some lubricant 11 x 37 cps = $4.07 and that's based on $575m before tax, what if they do more than $600m ?

[see weed]

So the govt. owns 51% and overseas owns 39%....that just leaves 10% for us poor old kiwi peasants:mellow:. ps wonder how many more of those overseaers will want to buy?

[Beagle]

9% mate as at 31 March 2017. Wouldn't surprise me if that was down to ~ 7% by now.

[Raz]

9% mate as at 31 March 2017. Wouldn't surprise me if that was down to ~ 7% by now.

Scarcity can be a good thing:-)

[couta1]

im inclined to agree. i wonder if the jk effect could work on other companies? smart move by the air nz board No thank you.

[BlackPeter]

So the govt. owns 51% and overseas owns 39%....that just leaves 10% for us poor old kiwi peasants:mellow:. ps wonder how many more of those overseaers will want to buy?

There is nearly unlimited supply of these shares for any old kiwi peasant. It just looks like we value the share less than the overseas investors do. Just make them a good enough offer and I am sure you will get all the shares back from abroad :p.

[Beagle]

No thank you.

Over one billion dollars been added to the market capitalization of AIR since the announcement of his appointment on 1 May 2017. Overseas investors happy with his appointment or just coincidence ?, you be the judge mate.

[winner69]

Over one billion dollars been added to the market capitalization of AIR since the announcement of his appointment on 1 May 2017. Overseas investors happy with his appointment or just coincidence ?, you be the judge mate.

I say coincidence

Haven't all airline stocks moved up since May?

[Beagle]

I say coincidence

Haven't all airline stocks moved up since May?

Certainly a plausible explanation but by way of anecdotal evidence since 1 May AIR up from $2.50 to $3.53 a 41.2% increase whereas QAN up from $4.35 to $5.49 a 26.2% increase.

[winner69]

Certainly a plausible explanation but by way of anecdotal evidence since 1 May AIR up from $2.50 to $3.53 a 41.2% increase whereas QAN up from $4.35 to $5.49 a 26.2% increase.

When I was young the Six Million Dollar Man was the ultimate

John Key the One Billion Dollar Man - no way

Hope you not losing it mate? Too young for such a fate.

[Beagle]

When I was young the Six Million Dollar Man was the ultimate

John Key the One Billion Dollar Man - no way

Hope you not losing it mate? Too young for such a fate.

LOL mate, not suggesting he's responsible for all the increase just some of it. Fact is he is well known overseas and some foreign institutions probably hold him in high regard and some of them have probably been buying. That and the fact that by and large its trading in line now with American carriers 2017 PE's after previously being cheaper. Like him or not his overseas contacts will be useful to AIR in terms of possible new air services agreements for instance.

[Baa_Baa]

The trouble with FA is you're constantly consumed with 'why' the SP moves in its mysterious ways. Sometimes that looks like you're chasing your tail, whereas a simple chart says 'whoopee' … hold until it doesn't make sense losing capital, whenever that is.

[Beagle]

Well the Nervous Nellies are back.!
The sp ,$2.18, has fallen below the 200 day EMA [moving average] $2.20.
We live in interesting times.?


Yes, the chart looks ominous. Hoop nailed the top, question is where to from here.

Posted 23 January 2017 when SP was just $2.18. Clearly Percy thought it was going lower and you didn't seem to know one way or the other, (acknowledge later posts may have expressed a different view). The problem with a singular focus on TA is you risk overlooking the extreme value that FA can highlight. I prefer it when TA and FA line up concurrently but at my heart I will always believe that FA is a better leading indicator on where a SP is likely to go. (Accept others will have different views and that's fine) No argument TA is a great go too tool as well, but arguably involves an even more constant focus than fundamental analysis. Great times in recent months are always the best when both TA and FA tell one the same rewarding answer :t_up:

[winner69]

Goodness gracious me - Johnny boy gets 'knighted' in Australia

Another $ on the shareprice

Excuse me - while I go and have a chunder. You'll be thrilled too eh Couts

Extract -

Sir John Key will be recognised with Australia's highest honour at a ceremony tomorrow attended by his old friend Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's Prime Minister.

Key will be appointed an honorary Companion in the Order of Australia in Canberra for his "eminent service to Australia-New Zealand relations".

A Companion is the highest ranking grade in the Order and 35 Australians every year can be appointed. Honorary appointments have been made to international figures with a close relationship with Australia.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11891823

[Baa_Baa]

Posted 23 January 2017 when SP was just $2.18. Clearly Percy thought it was going lower and you didn't seem to know one way or the other, (acknowledge later posts may have expressed a different view). The problem with a singular focus on TA is you risk overlooking the extreme value that FA can highlight. I prefer it when TA and FA line up concurrently but at my heart I will always believe that FA is a better leading indicator on where a SP is likely to go. (Accept others will have different views and that's fine) No argument TA is a great go too tool as well, but arguably involves an even more constant focus than fundamental analysis. Great times in recent months are always the best when both TA and FA tell one the same rewarding answer :t_up:

You can drag up any older posts but you can't say definitively whether anyone acted on it. Seems a bit defensive to me. TA acts when it's time to act, the 100dma is a poor decider by itself, albeit informative which some use as their token gesture to TA. Point is that TA like FA will be riding the breakout upwards, until it isn't. Except TA don't wonder about why, they just act on what is. When they choose to do so.

[Eval]

Chill out guys. Heading to $4. Numbers are to strong. You guys will find out in 4 weeks times!!!

[Snow Leopard]

It is an airline and thus, by definition, is very over-priced...


Overpriced relative to what other airline PT ? 10 year average PE is 11 and unless my steam powered abacus is due for some lubricant 11 x 37 cps = $4.07 and that's based on $575m before tax, what if they do more than $600m ?

Not only am I:
baffled by your basic lack of a sense of humour and;
bemused by your inability to understand basic English but I am;
beyond belief of what passes for your idea of basic company valuation.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: $600m? :lol::lol::lol:

[GTI]

Certainly a plausible explanation but by way of anecdotal evidence since 1 May AIR up from $2.50 to $3.53 a 41.2% increase whereas QAN up from $4.35 to $5.49 a 26.2% increase.

Very good observation and comparison. Thanks Beagle.

[GTI]

Appointment was announced 1 May 2017 when the SP was $2.50. I'd speculate your theory has a lot of merit. Happy holder, still trades on a very sensible PE unlike a LOT of other N.Z. stocks.

The PE is very reasonable not in NZX but around the world too!

[GTI]

Chill out guys. Heading to $4. Numbers are to strong. You guys will find out in 4 weeks times!!!

Eval, you keep on saying the results announcement next month we will see strong numbers, mind to tell us more?

[sb9]

Goodness gracious me - Johnny boy gets 'knighted' in Australia

Another $ on the shareprice

Excuse me - while I go and have a chunder. You'll be thrilled too eh Couts

Extract -

Sir John Key will be recognised with Australia's highest honour at a ceremony tomorrow attended by his old friend Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's Prime Minister.

Key will be appointed an honorary Companion in the Order of Australia in Canberra for his "eminent service to Australia-New Zealand relations".

A Companion is the highest ranking grade in the Order and 35 Australians every year can be appointed. Honorary appointments have been made to international figures with a close relationship with Australia.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11891823

Yes, caught up with that news this morning on ZB, Larry Williams talking to Sir John who is over Aus for the ceremony.

May not add a dollar to the current sp but surely will generate good vibes of him being on AIR board.

[BlackPeter]

Yes, caught up with that news this morning on ZB, Larry Williams talking to Sir Key who is over Aus for the ceremony.

May not add a dollar to the current sp but surely will generate good vibes of him being on AIR board.

Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".

[winner69]

Impressive. 9 out of the past 10 months up (so far), a study in volatility and long term technical breakdowns / breakouts for the chartists.

Log Scale Monthly, 6EMA/10EMA (approximates 50/200EMA). $3.74 next technical resistance target.
8994

Check stops.
BAA

Awesome chart

Containing the desire of getting the felt pen out and drawing over all the up and down lines

AIR share price never 'stable' - it always is going up steeply or going down sharply.

Spooky eh - but typical behaviour of a true cyclical.

Where to from here - 400 and then 500 ...........or is it one of those going down sharply periods and back to 200 or less.

Remember Mr P - the market giveth, but the market also taketh away (quickly)

As baa_baa says watch those stops

[sb9]

Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".

Ok, corrected duly...early morning blues....

However, each of us are entitled to our own opinion, my perspective is what I put out there...

[RTM]

Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".

Agreed. Good post.

[Eval]

Eval, you keep on saying the results announcement next month we will see strong numbers, mind to tell us more?

GTI, can't disclosed here but for sure some of the anti-AIR going to be very very disappointed this time around:cool:. few more weeks.

[winner69]

GTI, can't disclosed here but for sure some of the anti-AIR going to be very very disappointed this time around:cool:. few more weeks.

Nudge nudge wink wink secret squirrel stuff eh - But we know its going to be operating profit of $575m plus or minus a bit so nobody (on here) should be surprised.

[couta1]

GTI, can't disclosed here but for sure some of the anti-AIR going to be very very disappointed this time around:cool:. few more weeks. It's sounding like you have insider information, not buying a stock at a premium price is not anti, but rather prudent, especially with a cyclical like Air. PS- Every reputable company is a buy at the right price.

[Eval]

It's sounding like you have insider information, not buying a stock at a premium price is not anti, but rather prudent, especially with a cyclical like Air. PS- Every reputable company is a buy at the right price.

just waiting for your response, most of the shares on nzx at the moment trading at premium anyway, nothing new.

[winner69]

just waiting for your response, most of the shares on nzx at the moment trading at premium anyway, nothing new.

Just like the property market eh ... will equities go the same way as the apparent collapse in property prices

[GTI]

GTI, can't disclosed here but for sure some of the anti-AIR going to be very very disappointed this time around:cool:. few more weeks.

Ok EV, i will take yr words and hold it steadfastly.

[GTI]

Just like the property market eh ... will equities go the same way as the apparent collapse in property prices

Slow is the right word. Good areas are still sky high price.

[kiwi_crusader]

Great results coming out of Queenstown airport, this should be a good month for AIR, looking forward to the next monthly update in the next few days.

[sideline]

AIR investors, please fasten your seat belts before reading this: link (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11892433)

[Eval]

AIR investors, please fasten your seat belts before reading this: link (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11892433)

Nothing to concern by AIR investors. it's some silly marketing by the one airline CEO. Airlines are already making billions in extra services.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11892251

[sb9]

Get a feeling that Mr Market is waiting to see the latest op stats for June before the next leg up...

[BlackPeter]

Get a feeling that Mr Market is waiting to see the latest op stats for June before the next leg up...

... or down? Remember - the trend is your friend until the bend at the end :p.

[sb9]

... or down? Remember - the trend is your friend until the bend at the end :p.

For sure, but the trend currently seem to be factoring positive stats...let's wait and see.

[arc]

The acceleration vector trend appears to have diverged back around the 10th, 11th. Perhaps the International buy-in has already been accomplished ?. Only time will tell.

[RTFQ]

AIR has had major disruptions of late. 1/3 of their 777 fleet ended up in CHC on one particular day, each one of these events would have cost a couple of hundred thousand. In addition I understand numerous lightning strikes have occurred with planes AOGed for days. These can take a mil to fix. JUL ops figures aren't going to be pretty.

[TheHunter]

AIR has had major disruptions of late. 1/3 of their 777 fleet ended up in CHC on one particular day, each one of these events would have cost a couple of hundred thousand. In addition I understand numerous lightning strikes have occurred with planes AOGed for days. These can take a mil to fix. JUL ops figures aren't going to be pretty.

Just business as usual... not going to impact on SP.

[Eval]

JUL ops figures aren't going to be pretty.

Just wait and watch.... up numbers :cool:

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11892251

Interesting how things have changed over the last decade.

[GTI]

It is an airline and thus, by definition, is very over-priced .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

$3.56 = 2 x $1.78 (and then there was the divvy)

What is yr key measurement for valuation of a company? Mind to share why you say Air is over priced with PE 10?

[BlackPeter]

What is yr key measurement for valuation of a company? Mind to share why you say Air is over priced with PE 10?

You might have missed it - PT responded to this question already ...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=674084&viewfull=1#post674084

Ideally you read the whole thread, than you will understand ;);

[Eval]

What is yr key measurement for valuation of a company? Mind to share why you say Air is over priced with PE 10?

GTI, surprised by more then half of ST forum members are anti-AIR. understand if company is not doing well but AIR is doing really really well compare to other companies listed on NZX. IMO those AIR haters have jump off the plane to early, missed the flight or they have some sort of mental issues (can't see the facts) expecting share price to be what was 4-5 years ago.

[BlackPeter]

GTI, surprised by more then half of ST forum members are anti-AIR. understand if company is not doing well but AIR is doing really really well compare to other companies listed on NZX. IMO those AIR haters have jump off the plane to early, missed the flight or they have some sort of mental issues (can't see the facts) expecting share price to be what was 4-5 years ago.

Strong words: "... haters", "some sort of mental issues". Contributions like that are usually a quite strong indicator that the SP is getting overheated. Whoever is interested - check out the PEB thread and correlate the occurrence of posts like above with the hype peak of said share.

discl: made money with AIR in the past and think they are a good company. Don't hold at current - too many other good looking gals with in my view less risks around ;).

[winner69]

You might have missed it - PT responded to this question already ...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=674084&viewfull=1#post674084

Ideally you read the whole thread, than you will understand ;);

You missed this bit from PT post

$3.56 = 2 x $1.78 (and then there was the divvy)

[couta1]

Anti Air/Air Haters/Mental Issues, this thing must be in a bubble.:D

[GTI]

GTI, surprised by more then half of ST forum members are anti-AIR. understand if company is not doing well but AIR is doing really really well compare to other companies listed on NZX. IMO those AIR haters have jump off the plane to early, missed the flight or they have some sort of mental issues (can't see the facts) expecting share price to be what was 4-5 years ago.

Me too don't understand why the anti guys are looking down on Air. Sound management + Low PE should make SP fly high. Yes AIR is doing really well as an airline.

[GTI]

Anti Air/Air Haters/Mental Issues, this thing must be in a bubble.:D

AKL house price might be bubling...SP movement has just begun after Trump won the election Nov last year.

[GTI]

You might have missed it - PT responded to this question already ...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=674084&viewfull=1#post674084

Ideally you read the whole thread, than you will understand ;);

Sorry Pete, my simple minded thinking don't understand after reading :S

[Baa_Baa]

Me too don't understand why the anti guys are looking down on Air. Sound management + Low PE should make SP fly high. Yes AIR is doing really well as an airline.

Really the 'haters' comment is ridiculous, but informative as the experienced here will take it as a sign of topping as emotion overtakes reason.

People can put all the faith they want to in the company FA but the market decides it's SP / cap value and history is on the side of the market. No newbie's bullish and provocative comments will change that, no offence meant to them.

Check stops, don't be blinded, be alert. This stock turns on a dime, when it turns, and punishes investors on the wrong side and rewards investors on the right side.

BAA

[Eval]

People can put all the faith they want to in the company FA but the market decides it's SP / cap value and history is on the side of the market. No newbie's bullish and provocative comments will change that, no offence meant to them.

Check stops, don't be blinded, be alert. This stock turns on a dime, when it turns, and punishes investors on the wrong side and rewards investors on the right side.

BAA

Have already made over 400k realised profit in AIR over the last 5 years and currently on paper over 180k AIR profit as of today's SP.

Reasons is because Have faith on the company and it's management.

Yes there is risk involved but risk is not only In AIrlines business its on every business you do has risk.

Will happily hold and will top up as SP moves....

And yes im newbie to this forum but not when its comes to investment.

And yes i know how TA and FA works. Don't have to teach ex investor banker

[GTI]

Have already made over 400k realised profit in AIR over the last 5 years and currently on paper over 180k AIR profit as of today's SP.

Reasons is because Have faith on the company and it's management.

Yes there is risk involved but risk is not only In AIrlines business its on every business you do has risk.

Will happily hold and will top up as SP moves.....

That's real solid gain EV! Will be happy if I make 40k.

[tipsy]

I've also held for over 5yrs, great thing is all these nice dividends have more than covered the initial capital. Topped up a while back at $1.80. All these gains have been a nice fat bonus.

[GTI]

Really the 'haters' comment is ridiculous, but informative as the experienced here will take it as a sign of topping as emotion overtakes reason.

People can put all the faith they want to in the company FA but the market decides it's SP / cap value and history is on the side of the market. No newbie's bullish and provocative comments will change that, no offence meant to them.

Check stops, don't be blinded, be alert. This stock turns on a dime, when it turns, and punishes investors on the wrong side and rewards investors on the right side.

BAA

I supposed if we have Mr Buffett's investment horizon, we will be fine. Having said that, everyone makes mistakes. He just sold 1/3 of his IBM stakes after >5 years of holding.

This quote shows Warren Buffett thinks in investing time frames of at least 5 years. But his holding period is preferably much longer…

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”


&


“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”



These quotes shows that a 10 year holding period is really what you should look for when examining stocks to buy.
Even 10 years is too short a time period for outstanding businesses.

“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”


&


“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”



You should not buy any business and hold it for the long-run. Businesses with strong competitive advantages and quality managements are preferred long-term holdings.
Great businesses withstand the test of time. Time itself has been very favorable to the stock market.

[GTI]

I've also held for over 5yrs, great thing is all these nice dividends have more than covered the initial capital. Topped up a while back at $1.80. All these gains have been a nice fat bonus.

wow... 5 years is not a short time, i hate myself for not buying Nov last year when it was $1.80 :S

[couta1]

wow... 5 years is not a short time, i hate myself for not buying Nov last year when it was $1.80 :S Welcome to the beginning of your market regrets, most of us have heaps of them, and will gather more in the future.

[GTI]

Welcome to the beginning of your market regrets, most of us have heaps of them, and will gather more in the future.

Have you hold for 10 years yet? :eek2: I only started 2014.

[GTI]

Does anyone knows when the Ops stats will be released? Last one was 20th June.

[Baa_Baa]

Welcome to the beginning of your market regrets, most of us have heaps of them, and will gather more in the future.

Yes seasoned investors all have regrets, its just a matter of circumstance and timing. Many have remarkable successes as well. Question is whether the downside lessons are learned and the successes learned and on balance whether that was a good investing outcome. Interesting here that the noobs to the forum have become emboldened and espouse a bright future with no consideration for potential downside. Their argument would be way more plausible if they recognised the potential to be shafted and put forward a strategy to exit, just in case. A good time for caution if not just to quit their holding. Good spectator sport if nothing else 😄

[Eval]

Have you hold for 10 years yet? :eek2: I only started 2014.

Have hold it APPLE shares for over 10yrs. Brought at around US $4 in Nov 2004 and sold it in Dec 2014 for US $115

[winner69]

Does anyone knows when the Ops stats will be released? Last one was 20th June.

Eval will know when - he even seems to know the numbers already

[Beagle]

The shrillness of some of the "its overpriced" calls is almost deafening so we're long overdue to compare some PE's
All data from 4 Traders average analyst estimates for 2017 as at 19 July.
Delta Airlines 9.76
United continental Holdings Ltd 10.43
American Airlines 10.65
Qantas 11.27
Air New Zealand 10.12

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ AIR estimate is only $508m before tax to form that 10.12 PE.

[Eval]

Eval will know when - he even seems to know the numbers already

Will be out by 23rd👍✈️

[value_investor]

First time poster, long time listener..

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

The share price is over priced at the moment without a huge earnings announcement. It will be interesting to see just how much of an effect the Lions tour and the Masters Games have had. Looks like the international players are jumping the gun on AIR, similarly to Qantas. All will be revealed on 23rd of August when the earnings come out. The general consensus seems to be that AIR are under promising and will over deliver based on the forecasts they've made.

On a long term, as much as I like AIR and how well their management are doing. Its hard to predict where this industry will be in 1-3 years let alone 10. At this point in time though, you really have to like your chances.

Disc: Holder (bought in at around $2 mark)