AIR - Air NZ.

[Raz]

Eval will know when - he even seems to know the numbers already

Well a couple of the newbies here did disclose that they believe the purpose of forums is to ramp so I don't give them much weight....

[Eval]

Well a couple of the newbies here did disclose that they believe the purpose of forums is to ramp so I don't give them much weight....

Here comes another one. He is telling everyone his holding in AIR but doing down ramping comments since February. Who do we believe

[Raz]

Here comes another one. He is telling everyone his holding in AIR but doing down ramping comments since February. Who do we believe

Well if we take you at your word..do I need to quote the post, nah most here did not miss it..they are just playing with you:-)

Unlike you i do not have the ego to think for a moment I could move the market..plain silly. Just provide comments as I see them, both ways:-)

[Eval]

Well if we take you at your word..do I need to quote the post, nah most here did not miss it..they are just playing with you:-)

Unlike you i do not have the ego to think for a moment I could move the market..plain silly. Just provide comments as I see them, both ways:-)

it's not about the ego, Upramping/downramping here is not moving the market. people need to realised the facts. some doesn't like the AIR fair enough. some likes the AIR

[allfromacell]

The whole airline sector has been in a very strong up tread over the last 12 months and almost every airline I track has taken a breather over the past week. There are obviously a lot of very smart and wealthy people who've been buying up this sector! One of whom is the famous Buffet who often gets quoted around here although he didn't pay anything near theses prices and that's also true for most of us.

I'm personally not buying any more at theses prices but I'm not selling either.

8999

[mfd]

It's getting a little bit fanatical in here. I sold out my holding as I don't think there's much room for further increases and I see better opportunities elsewhere. Not anti-air, just anti-air at this price. I could be wrong of course, it's happened before.

[GTI]

The shrillness of some of the "its overpriced" calls is almost deafening so we're long overdue to compare some PE's
All data from 4 Traders average analyst estimates for 2017 as at 19 July.
Delta Airlines 9.76
United continental Holdings Ltd 10.43
American Airlines 10.65
Qantas 11.27
Air New Zealand 10.12

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ AIR estimate is only $508m before tax to form that 10.12 PE.

I like your post Beagle, the PEs are so cheap for all of them...i think that's why Mr B bought all of the US airlines. And for those who are skeptical about airlines, why would he buy in now when he used to called the airline industry a “death trap for investors”? The dynamics are changing and we have to look at airlines like never before.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/warren-buffett-invests-in-airlines-american-delta-southwest-2017-2?r=US&IR=T

[couta1]

First time poster, long time listener..

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

The share price is over priced at the moment without a huge earnings announcement. It will be interesting to see just how much of an effect the Lions tour and the Masters Games have had. Looks like the international players are jumping the gun on AIR, similarly to Qantas. All will be revealed on 23rd of August when the earnings come out. The general consensus seems to be that AIR are under promising and will over deliver based on the forecasts they've made.

On a long term, as much as I like AIR and how well their management are doing. Its hard to predict where this industry will be in 1-3 years let alone 10. At this point in time though, you really have to like your chances.

Disc: Holder (bought in at around $2 mark) An excellent first post, a lot of truth in there.

[Beagle]

Over priced relative to what other successful well managed airline ?...this question is open to anyone, not just Paper Tiger who has already been asked and didn't provide a real answer. Please can we have some common sense on here. If you're going to claim something is overpriced, overpriced relative to what other relevant metric or comparative company and why ? Overpriced relative to what other well managed company on the NZX ?

[winner69]

Stephen off to run Wizz

Hope he sells his shares at these elevated levels

[Raz]

Over priced relative to what other successful well managed airline ?...this question is open to anyone, not just Paper Tiger who has already been asked and didn't provide a real answer. Please can we have some common sense on here. If you're going to claim something is overpriced, overpriced relative to what other relevant metric or comparative company and why ? Overpriced relative to what other well managed company on the NZX ?

I get the frustration...in the end for many it is just a perception..AIR has moved up with the other airlines on PE. The taper off in the share price increases recently may just reflect the sentiment expressed here by many currently....

[TheHunter]

Also, oil inventories are reported to be significantly down, raising the price of oil. Possible to result in a slight change of sentiment towards long term expectations, negative impact on SP expectations.

[GTI]

I get the frustration...in the end for many it is just a perception..AIR has moved up with the other airlines on PE. The taper off in the share price increases recently may just reflect the sentiment expressed here by many currently....

Me too cant comprehend the yardstick for overpriced...

[winner69]

Me too cant comprehend the yardstick for overpriced...


What you reckon a 'fair' price is then (your valuation)

[Eval]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14216747/1/how-warren-buffett-s-airline-investment-reflects-a-turning-point-in-industry-history.html

[see weed]

Starting to look a bit oversold recently;). Have noticed sp drops during the day and then bargain hunters come back in at end of day:t_up:. But in saying that, did a very kind deed and took an early div of 15% gain from last lot bought 3 and 4 weeks ago and sold 9% of my holding. Thought I would let a few new holders get in and enjoy the fun.:D My av price is now 2.71. If sp goes any lower before ex div, then will jump back in.

[Beagle]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14216747/1/how-warren-buffett-s-airline-investment-reflects-a-turning-point-in-industry-history.html

Thanks for sharing, Warren Buffett recognizes that this time it really is different but the sceptics on here for reasons best known to themselves can't seem to get their head around that.

[Raz]

Thanks for sharing, Warren Buffett recognizes that this time it really is different but the sceptics on here for reasons best known to themselves can't seem to get their head around that.


Price of oil and consolidation were the keys for the US market place to be sustainable. They still have terrible customer service and leadership. You would think AIR is a far less uncertain and simply proposition.

[Beagle]

Price of oil and consolidation were the keys for the US market place to be sustainable. They still have terrible customer service and leadership. You would think AIR is a far less uncertain and simply proposition.

I do indeed and lets not forget the difference in the dividend yield ! Some people take for granted our ability to claim full imputation credits, (they shouldn't as not that many countries have such a system) so the ability to earn circa 8% gross on ordinary dividends, plus special dividends in due course is not to be sneered at. (20/344) / 0.72 = 8.07% gross. I suspect Warren Buffett would be even more keen if he could earn 8% dividends !

[winner69]

I do indeed and lets not forget the difference in the dividend yield ! Some people take for granted our ability to claim full imputation credits, (they shouldn't as not that many countries have such a system) so the ability to earn circa 8% gross on ordinary dividends, plus special dividends in due course is not to be sneered at. (20/344) / 0.72 = 8.07% gross. I suspect Warren Buffett would be even more keen if he could earn 8% dividends !

Maybe Warren HAS been buying of late .....or since May

Might have been swayed by having a SIR and a famous Australian joining the Board.

[Snow Leopard]

...Might have been swayed by having a SIR and a famous Australian joining the Board.

You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?

So for a beagle and his admirers:

Tiger current AIR value is $2.85 and even at the present price is well overpriced.

[QAN is $4.54 and equally overpriced]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:

[winner69]

You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?

So for a beagle and his admirers:

Tiger current AIR value is $2.85 and even at the present price is well overpriced.

[QAN is $4.54 and equally overpriced]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:


Been referred to London School of Economics and their Behavioural Finance studies team

[Eval]

You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?

So for a beagle and his admirers:

Tiger current AIR value is $2.85 and even at the present price is well overpriced.

[QAN is $4.54 and equally overpriced]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:


What we expect from the modarate of ST forum

[Beagle]

You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?

So for a beagle and his admirers:

Tiger current AIR value is $2.85 and even at the present price is well overpriced.

[QAN is $4.54 and equally overpriced]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Please humor me some more. Have you ever actually owned AIR shares and if so when and for how long ?

[RupertBear]

What we expect from the modarate of ST forum

Paper Tiger is one of my favourite posters on this forum, a very clever tiger whose opinion I respect :)

[Eval]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Please humor me some more. Have you ever actually owned AIR shares and if so when and for how long ?

I don't think he has owned any shares in AIR. he has been telling people to keep away from AIR since 2004. LOL

[Snow Leopard]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Please humor me some more. Have you ever actually owned AIR shares and if so when and for how long ?


I say, I say I say, My dog has got no nose.

You're dog has got no nose, how does he smell?

Terrible ! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



Been humouring you for years and you have never got the joke.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Another day of action, suspense and humour here on planet Air I see. I see the price drifting down as well, still far too expensive for Couta to take up an XXOS portion again, can't have a 3 in front for that to happen.

[tim23]

You will be delighted Couta at the downtrend personally I sold 1/3 of my modest holding on Monday at $3-55 the rest are running for free so relaxed.

[GTI]

What you reckon a 'fair' price is then (your valuation)

PE 5 to 12

[GTI]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14216747/1/how-warren-buffett-s-airline-investment-reflects-a-turning-point-in-industry-history.html

Good article on Mr B's buying on airlines.

[winner69]

Another day of action, suspense and humour here on planet Air I see. I see the price drifting down as well, still far too expensive for Couta to take up an XXOS portion again, can't have a 3 in front for that to happen.

Couts - what do you think of the new Dr Who?

[couta1]

Couts - what do you think of the new Dr Who? The Daleks will love her.

[Baa_Baa]

@Eval don't copy, paste and post copyright content, just post a link. No need to be banned for thoughtless copyright infringements. We're loving your forthright contributions, it would be sad to see you go for such a minor detail.

Just saying.

[Eval]

@Eval don't copy, paste and post copyright content, just post a link. No need to be banned for thoughtless copyright infringements. We're loving your forthright contributions, it would be sad to see you go for such a minor detail.

Just saying.

Thanks BB, wasn't aware of cant copy/paste full content.

[Eval]

On P/E, though, Air New Zealand looks 30% undervalued or so, especially given higher EPS growth. The airline carries a P/B of 1.7. Compared to a list of other airlines with positive EPS growth over the last five years, ANZFF looks undervalued

worth reading...for who thinks its a overvalue

Air New Zealand: Growth And 6% Dividends Where You Might Not Think To Look

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086693-air-new-zealand-growth-6-percent-dividends-might-think-look

[couta1]

On P/E, though, Air New Zealand looks 30% undervalued or so, especially given higher EPS growth. The airline carries a P/B of 1.7. Compared to a list of other airlines with positive EPS growth over the last five years, ANZFF looks undervalued

worth reading...

Air New Zealand: Growth And 6% Dividends Where You Might Not Think To Look

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086693-air-new-zealand-growth-6-percent-dividends-might-think-look 30% undervalued, yeah right, I'd have a Tui but it's too close to bedtime.

[Eval]

30% undervalued, yeah right, I'd have a Tui but it's too close to bedtime.

Have a read the article...you may have to read few times to get better understanding :cool:. overseas instro thinks its still 30% undervalue + 35% growth for 1yr. you already knows how many % own by Overseas Instro.... current few sessions downtrends was expected no worries... just wait and watch.

Sincere Advise: Next time don't jump off the plane to early before its land :cool: turbulence happens... you already knows the consequences when you jump off the plane before its land :D . we can feel your pain and how badly is hurting you.

And it's like a rugby player watching from sideline and thinking when can i get............................................... ...

[winner69]

And if this Summer of Love happens in the US it'll be good for airline stocks, and AIR will do OK as well

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4088914-will-summer-love-stocks

even the NZ version of Summer of Love 50 years ago was pretty cool

[sb9]

On P/E, though, Air New Zealand looks 30% undervalued or so, especially given higher EPS growth. The airline carries a P/B of 1.7. Compared to a list of other airlines with positive EPS growth over the last five years, ANZFF looks undervalued

worth reading...for who thinks its a overvalue

Air New Zealand: Growth And 6% Dividends Where You Might Not Think To Look

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086693-air-new-zealand-growth-6-percent-dividends-might-think-look

Good insight, thanks for posting the link.

[winner69]

Good insight, thanks for posting the link.

Could have been written by Mr Beagle. He's said all that plus more.

Does a poster who calls himself a private investor with 247 followers whose had 25 articles have much influence anyway.

Whatever it gives the warm fuzzies to the believers .....that's good as 4 bucks beckons

[Eval]

Could have written by Mr Beagle

Does a poster who calls himself a private investor with 247 followers whose had 25 articles have much influence anyway.

Whatever it gives the warm fuzzies to the believers .....that's good.

better then so called gurus of financial markets. They can't even make a right call.

[BlackPeter]

And if this Summer of Love happens in the US it'll be good for airline stocks, and AIR will do OK as well

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4088914-will-summer-love-stocks

even the NZ version of Summer of Love 50 years ago was pretty cool

... but remember - the US police force shoots lovers to kill.

Which means AIR would only sell one way tickets and needs to fly back with empty seats. Seriously - who would want to go to this terrible, unwelcoming and unfriendly country? I tried to avoid going there before Trump, but now I make even sure that all my flights to Europe go over Asia ...

[winner69]

... but remember - the US police force shoots lovers to kill.

Which means AIR would only sell one way tickets and needs to fly back with empty seats. Seriously - who would want to go to this terrible, unwelcoming and unfriendly country? I tried to avoid going there before Trump, but now I make even sure that all my flights to Europe go over Asia ...

....and my mates tell me to avoid going through Shanghai to Europe.

[BlackPeter]

....and my mates tell me to avoid going through Shanghai to Europe.

Maybe your mates still live in the wrong century? The crooks moved East and some of them wear now police uniform or even made it to president.

[winner69]

Maybe your mates still live in the wrong century? The crooks moved East and some of them wear now police uniform or even made it to president.

Transit / transfer apparently chaotic they say from experience ..... shanghai good place to visit

[BlackPeter]

Transit / transfer apparently chaotic they say from experience ..... shanghai good place to visit

OK, I have to admit that I never have been in Shanghai. However - they can't possibly be worse organised than Heathrow :p!

[Beagle]

You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?


PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:


I don't think he has owned any shares in AIR. he has been telling people to keep away from AIR since 2004. LOL




Been humouring you for years and you have never got the joke.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

On the contrary I definitely got the joke above, your best one yet by miles (thank you for the excellent humor, the hound nearly split his sides with laughter), and good to see another recently joined poster got it too. Hopefully others will read the first few pages of this thread and enjoy the comedy too :)
Anyway back on topic, I wonder when the next monthly stat's will come out, must be any day now. Something of a correction appears to be emerging but we're still trading above the 30 day moving average and the annual result is just on one month away.
I see we're just above 74 cents U.S. now...should give a good opportunity for AIR to lock in some forward cover for the remaining capex to complete its fleet modernization program at an attractive exchange rate.

[Raz]

Transit / transfer apparently chaotic they say from experience ..... shanghai good place to visit

Totally confirm that, let's hope BP keeps to investment comments...

[barleeni]

I don't totally understand the inside jokes between Roger and PT and whether its in good humour/faith or not, but for my two cents I have made exceptionally good returns on AIR in the circa 3 years since my initial investment, largely thanks to Roger whose posts are usually very informative and transparent (Rogers comments largely are the reasons I invested in the first place). No disrespect to PT, but I find his posts very cryptic, and not usually that informative or helpful at all!? So thankyou Roger.

Unfortunately I recently sold 30% of my holding at $2.81, and the balance at $3.20. Ever since I have desperately been awaiting a suitable re-investment point as I had intended this to be a long term hold purely for the dividend return. I concur with many on this forum that the company seems to be very well run. Surely the fact that they are making record profits in a time where they face/d very intense levels of new competition must be telling? If this level of profit occurs during times of massive competition - which seems to now be abating - this is a positive indicator? As far as I know, there is not a single valid negative argument against AIR (excluding arguments against the airline industry, and its associated risks as a whole). What is their not to like about AIR? I don't think its under-priced at present, but I also don't think its overpriced. Its about right perhaps, although I do think there is still going to be a lot of resistance to upward movement, given there must be a serious amount of people (like myself) who just want to lock in their profit, keeping pressure on the sell side.

[BlackPeter]

Totally confirm that, let's hope BP keeps to investment comments...

Oh dear ... and this coming from a Trump supporter :p

[dagdaniel1]

Damn this is dropping fast

[sb9]

Damn this is dropping fast

Salt Funds must've opened a short position on this one...:p

[nocomment]

wow quite the turbulence...

[bull....]

And I'm Free, Freefalling, keep going baby, you have a long way to go before you entice me.:cool:

totally agree, was way over the top

[Eval]

Nervous mum and dad. Gave me another opportunity to top up more 20k volumes at 3.20. :t_up:

[sb9]

wow quite the turbulence...

Gosh, that was the quick 16.5c trade one could've made in 15-20min or so...

[nocomment]

Nervous mum and dad. Gave me another opportunity to top up more 20k volumes at 3.20. :t_up:

do mum & dads follow the market that closely?

[sb9]

Nervous mum and dad. Gave me another opportunity to top up more 20k volumes at 3.20. :t_up:

Good on ya, well timed...

[Eval]

Good on ya, well timed...

Yeah, i was watching the there was no buy volumes in the queue so nervous mum and dad dumping whatever next buy price was.

[sb9]

do mum & dads follow the market that closely?

There are currently 20 members and 40 guests following this thread....can make a bit of impact...

[bull....]

sorry my fat finger caused it

[Eval]

There are currently 20 members and 40 guests following this thread....can make a bit of impact...

this is what happens when nervous kiwi mum and dad follows the threads other way around. Nice fat 16cents gain in 10mins. loved it :cool:. you do get some good barging between 10am to 12pm when mum and dad sales.

[winner69]

Good move -ADRs on the US market

That'll be attractive for those seekingalpha disciples


Another boost for AIR share price.

[stoploss]

Good move -ADRs on the US market

That'll be attractive for those seekingalpha disciples


Another boost for AIR share price.

Bit easier for the Buff to get in !!!

[GTI]

this is what happens when nervous kiwi mum and dad follows the threads other way around. Nice fat 16cents gain in 10mins. loved it :cool:. you do get some good barging between 10am to 12pm when mum and dad sales.

Good one! Good buy! Too bad i missed the window!

[Raz]

Bit easier for the Buff to get in !!!

It was fun while it lasted, BP sounds ready for anther debate...also sounds like some like to tell a good yarn around here....

[winner69]

A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm

[arc]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by dagdaniel1 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=674593#post674593)

Damn this is dropping fast



Salt Funds must've opened a short position on this one...:p

And that is just a small example of HFT robots being triggered...
small volume, numerous fast trades

[Raz]

A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm

exactly:-)

[couta1]

A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm Sounds impressive though aye winner, the art of exaggeration, just like old fishing tales.

[777]

A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm

90 11:17:03 am 322 14,000 2 $45,080 1
86 - 89 11:12:18 am 320 11,130 1 $35,616 4
83 - 85 11:11:11 am 319 14,771 1 $47,119 3
75 - 82 11:10:33 am 320 10,750 3 $34,400 8
74 11:08:37 am 323 5,782 2 $18,676 1

Trades off Stockness shows how few went thru

[Eval]

A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm

order fulfilled here.



83
11:12
3.20
600
$1,920.00


82
11:12
3.20
530
$1,696.00


81
11:12
3.20
9,470
$30,304.00


80
11:12
3.20
530
$1,696.00


79
11:11
3.19
8,500
$27,115.00


78
11:11
3.19
1,271
$4,054.49


77
11:10
3.19
5,000
$15,950.00


76
11:10
3.20
650
$2,080.00


75
11:10
3.20
3,320
$10,624.00


74
11:10
3.20
322
$1,030.40


73
11:10
3.20
1,100
$3,520.00


72
11:10
3.20
258
$825.60


71
11:09
3.20
3,960
$12,672.00


70
11:09
3.20
1,040
$3,328.00


69
11:09
3.20
100
$320.00

[couta1]

order fulfilled here.



83
11:12
3.20
600
$1,920.00


82
11:12
3.20
530
$1,696.00


81
11:12
3.20
9,470
$30,304.00


80
11:12
3.20
530
$1,696.00


79
11:11
3.19
8,500
$27,115.00


78
11:11
3.19
1,271
$4,054.49


77
11:10
3.19
5,000
$15,950.00


76
11:10
3.20
650
$2,080.00


75
11:10
3.20
3,320
$10,624.00


74
11:10
3.20
322
$1,030.40


73
11:10
3.20
1,100
$3,520.00


72
11:10
3.20
258
$825.60


71
11:09
3.20
3,960
$12,672.00


70
11:09
3.20
1,040
$3,328.00


69
11:09
3.20
100
$320.00


That's funny because earlier you said you bought 20k shares, yet the above shows just over 36k shares.

[Eval]

That's funny because earlier you said you bought 20k shares, yet the above shows just over 36k shares.

it's not all mine. my order was filled between these trades.after that price straight jumped to 3.28 otherwise have topped up more 20k to 30k volumes if stayed under 3.25 . love affair with AIR :cool:. made me more rich in last 5 yrs :t_up:. 100% portfolio in AIR. holding over 230k volumes. no risk no gain simple is that.

hope some punters doubt may have cleared :cool:

[Beagle]

I don't totally understand the inside jokes between Roger and PT and whether its in good humour/faith or not, but for my two cents I have made exceptionally good returns on AIR in the circa 3 years since my initial investment, largely thanks to Roger whose posts are usually very informative and transparent (Rogers comments largely are the reasons I invested in the first place). No disrespect to PT, but I find his posts very cryptic, and not usually that informative or helpful at all!? So thankyou Roger.

Unfortunately I recently sold 30% of my holding at $2.81, and the balance at $3.20. Ever since I have desperately been awaiting a suitable re-investment point as I had intended this to be a long term hold purely for the dividend return. I concur with many on this forum that the company seems to be very well run. Surely the fact that they are making record profits in a time where they face/d very intense levels of new competition must be telling? If this level of profit occurs during times of massive competition - which seems to now be abating - this is a positive indicator? As far as I know, there is not a single valid negative argument against AIR (excluding arguments against the airline industry, and its associated risks as a whole). What is their not to like about AIR? I don't think its under-priced at present, but I also don't think its overpriced. Its about right perhaps, although I do think there is still going to be a lot of resistance to upward movement, given there must be a serious amount of people (like myself) who just want to lock in their profit, keeping pressure on the sell side. You're most welcome and I am pleased you've done well. Definitely an element of some people looking to lock in their profit on some of their investment, SP has close to doubled in the last 10 months. On the other subject, some of it is good natured and some of it not so much. I will leave it for others to ponder why some posters consistently seem to give cryptic answers.

Well done Eval, sweet timing, hope it works out well for you.

Migration / Tourism soar to new record level's ! Got to be good for AIR as is the new ADR over the counter trading facility in the U.S., (good for liquidity which is almost always a good thing). http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/872841f0/nz-migration-tourism-soar-to-new-annual-records.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20migration%20tourism%20soar%20to% 20new%20annual%20records&utm_content=NZ%20migration%20tourism%20soar%20to%2 0new%20annual%20records+CID_c8abe41bbc9724f21ad5a7 a995dabafa&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle872841f0nz-migration-tourism-soar-to-new-annual-recordshtml

Unfortunately I was in an important meeting this morning so missed the opportunity at $3.20 but very sweet timing for those of you who were quick !

[drew]

Admittedly I havent looked at AIR for a long time but im wondering whats driving the current valuation. A quick review of their financials shows every dollar of operating cash is plowed back into capex and the dividend is being funded with debt for the last 6 years or so. Is there something obvious that im missing?

[Eval]

Well done Eval, sweet timing, hope it works out well for you.

Migration / Tourism soar to new record level's !

Thanks Beagle. Doing it this for quite sometimes. No risk no gain. Well managed company. it doesn't concern me if sp retrace. company maintained profitablity and paid a dividend right through the financial crisis what else we want.

Yes those impravise tourism jump and not expecting to be slow down anytime soon. more middle class peoples can afford to fly then ever before.

And funny some punters need a artefacts to clear their doubts :D

[arc]

You're most welcome and I am pleased you've done well. Definitely an element of some people looking to lock in their profit on some of their investment, SP has close to doubled in the last 10 months. On the other subject, some of it is good natured and some of it not so much. I will leave it for others to ponder why some posters consistently seem to give cryptic answers.


If you are referring to my post Beagle, its just a heads up to new investors and a reminder for longer term traders that robot trading software has basic fundamental flaws inherent in it, and when its parameters are exceeded things can go downhill very quickly. It was robot trading that caused the 2010-2011 flash crashes on the American market.
The main thing is ... Dont Panic.... Flash crashes happen, and often they reverse almost as quickly after the numerous "Stop Loss" limits are achieved.

[Beagle]

If you are referring to my post Beagle, its just a heads up to new investors and a reminder for longer term traders that robot trading software has basic fundamental flaws inherent in it, and when its parameters are exceeded things can go downhill very quickly. It was robot trading that caused the 2010-2011 flash crashes on the American market.
The main thing is ... Dont Panic.... Flash crashes happen, and often they reverse almost as quickly after the numerous "Stop Loss" limits are achieved.

I wasn't talking about your post mate but you make a good point.

[winner69]

No opersating stats this week ...eval did say the 23rd so Monday it will be

I'll be looking to see if H2 passenger revenues are going to be UP at least 4% on pcp to offset the 4% DOWN in H1

Will then be able to assess how close operating profits will be to $575m ....or whather it is only $530m (more than $525m)

[GTI]

Will be out by 23rd👍✈️

You meant 24th Ev? 23rd is a Sunday.

[winner69]

You meant 24th Ev? 23rd is a Sunday.

Probably a bit confused with the 23rd August when results are to be announced

Understandable when things are so exciting and moving so fast

[Eval]

Sorry mean to be by 24/07.

I'm sure the OPS stats will delight most of you next week.

Very good come back after kiwi mum and dad unleashed this morning. They were in very hurry (power of the thread :cool:). thanks to those mum & dad that gave me opportunity to top up more at nice price.

Off to NY tomorrow for board meeting next week. Looking forward to meal service and wine in business class :cool:.

Have a good weekend to you all. Enjoy

[Beagle]

Well done to those cunning enough to snap up a few at $3.20 this morning.

[King1212]

Was looking closely last couple days...about to put an order in at $3.25 before went to Tauranga this morning..but changed my mind because open cncbc and read the OPEC meeting....

well done guys who bought at $3.20...

[Eval]

Was looking closely last couple days...about to put an order in at $3.25 before went to Tauranga this morning..but changed my mind because open cncbc and read the OPEC meeting....

well done guys who bought at $3.20...

Less then 120k vol when it fall to 6% this morning wasn't many volumes. must be scared off mum and dad panicked after reading some thread here or somewhere else🤑

[winner69]

Less then 120k vol when it fall to 6% this morning wasn't many volumes. must be scared off mum and dad panicked after reading some thread here or somewhere else🤑

That's the game eh eval - the professionals preying on the mums and dads. No love lost, no quarter given.

Have a good trip to NY - hope you flying on an AIRplane some if the way......and not too much vino, Board meeting on your arrival remember.

[Eval]

That's the game eh eval - the professionals preying on the mums and dads. No love lost, no quarter given.

Have a good trip to NY - hope you flying on an AIRplane some if the way......and not too much vino, Board meeting on your arrival remember.

Don't think anything to do with professionals preying on them. Its comes to individuals at the end what they believe in and act on

Thanks Winner. Off course Flying with AIR and will try not to get drunk 😵

Most importantly can't forget the 23/8 💵 💵

[ratkin]

Don't think anything to do with professionals preying on them. Its comes to individuals at the end what they believe in and act on

Thanks Winner. Off course Flying with AIR and will try not to get drunk 

Most importantly can't forget the 23/8  

Bit hypocritical of airlines to complain about drunken passengers when the moment you sit down they bring a trolley round loaded with spirits. Plus they preach the benefits of staying hydrated on the plane, but wont let you take water on board. My problem is I like a drink, and on a long boring flight it too tempting to wade into the booze trolley just to make the time pass faster. No wonder always arrive feeling like death.

[winner69]

Don't think anything to do with professionals preying on them. Its comes to individuals at the end what they believe in and act on

Thanks Winner. Off course Flying with AIR and will try not to get drunk 😵

Most importantly can't forget the 23/8 💵 💵

.........you have to be crafty and be like Quick Draw McGraw to profit from these mums and dads eh. First in first served, esp if the readies are on hand.

While in the USA you should catch up with some of your old investment banker contacts to gauge what interest there might be in the likes of AIR (as an investment that is). Be interested to hear.

[Beagle]

Hey Raz..you get into using noise cancelling headphones on all your long haul trips ? Apparently these ones are the business when it comes to comfort.

https://www.cnet.com/products/bose-quietcomfort-35/

ratkin, I guess you could try the above and a sleeping pill and ease up a little on the drink you might arrive feeling a bit better ?

[Raz]

Hey Raz..you get into using noise cancelling headphones on all your long haul trips ? Apparently these ones are the business when it comes to comfort.

https://www.cnet.com/products/bose-quietcomfort-35/

ratkin, I guess you could try the above and a sleeping pill and ease up a little on the drink you might arrive feeling a bit better ?

I have some "beats" although these bose ones now are the ones to be seen with..I would say vital if you travel economy internationally..will block the family noise if you end up too close and domestic flights overseas..if flying premium only need them for the music quality!:-)

ps Any one want some etickets for the crusaders game tonight pm me..good seats..stuck in Dunedin and will not make it!

[winner69]

I have some "beats" although these bose ones now are the ones to be seen with..I would say vital if you travel economy internationally..will block the family noise if you end up too close and domestic flights overseas..if flying premium only need them for the music quality!:-)

ps Any one want some etickets for the crusaders game tonight pm me..good seats..stuck in Dunedin and will not make it!

......maybe the Highlanders won't make it either

[Raz]

......maybe the Highlanders won't make it either

They are stacked on the 11am flight out...

[Joshuatree]

All those others are redundant since wireless IQ Buds arrived from Nuheara (NUH on the ASX)
Hear What You Want to Hear - Life Changing Wireless Earbuds‎ (https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwiZyIf_upvVAhVLjo8KHS2jDHkYABAAGgJzYg&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAASEuRoyCPUV4MvSghqVr93YPieGw&sig=AOD64_1UXB-pHhLrZyE0u3dslvQI0tjUgA&adurl=&q=&nb=0&res_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnet.com%2Fsearch%2F%3Fq uery%3DNuheara&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnet.com%2Fproducts%2Fbose-quietcomfort-35%2F&nm=11&nx=218&ny=11&is=936x162)

[BlackPeter]

Less then 120k vol when it fall to 6% this morning wasn't many volumes. must be scared off mum and dad panicked after reading some thread here or somewhere else🤑

Highly likely just some a bit tight set automatic stop-losses. Doubt that many mum and dad investors would use them.

I guess time will tell - but maybe the people who set these stop losses are at the end the lucky ones? Capital conservation is an important investment principle.

Discl: don't (hold) and didn't (sell);

Ah yes - and would expect AIR's next update to be positive (still reflecting the Lions tour), but not so sure about the one which will follow next. Remember - markets are forwards looking ...

[Eval]

.........you have to be crafty and be like Quick Draw McGraw to profit from these mums and dads eh. First in first served, esp if the readies are on hand.

While in the USA you should catch up with some of your old investment banker contacts to gauge what interest there might be in the likes of AIR (as an investment that is). Be interested to hear.
That's for sure. Readies need to be little smart and not completely dumb. When someone say jump or board doesn't mean have to follow and act. Everyone have their own opinions and sentiments.

I have seen this type of actions time to time. At end of February/march earlier similar thing happened with A2M 2-3 days lafter after 1h17 announcement. When scared kiwi mum/dad started dumping in morning before ASX open. I took the opportunity to buy ATM @ 2.28 (22cents cheaper) and sold it when first time it hit to 3.80 in May. Made a healthy profit of over $80k in short periods.

We all are here to make money 💰. Just need to be little smart with act.

Going to catch up couple of Friends. One is still working at Morgan Stanley.

[GTI]

Sorry mean to be by 24/07.

I'm sure the OPS stats will delight most of you next week.

Very good come back after kiwi mum and dad unleashed this morning. They were in very hurry (power of the thread :cool:). thanks to those mum & dad that gave me opportunity to top up more at nice price.

Off to NY tomorrow for board meeting next week. Looking forward to meal service and wine in business class :cool:.

Have a good weekend to you all. Enjoy

Envy yr high flyer lifestyle Ev, i will never understand the masks, lies and politics the management people have. Fundamental studies of numbers suit me better...love the business class travel though!!! 😁

[Eval]

Highly likely just some a bit tight set automatic stop-losses. Doubt that many mum and dad investors would use them.

I guess time will tell - but maybe the people who set these stop losses are at the end the lucky ones? Capital conservation is an important investment principle.

Discl: don't (hold) and didn't (sell);

Ah yes - and would expect AIR's next update to be positive (still reflecting the Lions tour), but not so sure about the one which will follow next. Remember - markets are forwards looking ...


Looking at the trades between 10:30am to 11:20am don't think it was related to automatic stop-losses. now a days can have own online trading accounts don't necessary have to contact brokers to sell/buy. Most of the mum/dad uses online to manage the trades.

Let see what comes out on 23/08 annual results.

OPEC meeting is early next week. Doesn't look that bright OIL future. for sure OIL is going to be tumble in 2018.

[IAK]

All those others are redundant since wireless IQ Buds arrived from Nuheara (NUH on the ASX)
Hear What You Want to Hear - Life Changing Wireless Earbuds‎ (https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwiZyIf_upvVAhVLjo8KHS2jDHkYABAAGgJzYg&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAASEuRoyCPUV4MvSghqVr93YPieGw&sig=AOD64_1UXB-pHhLrZyE0u3dslvQI0tjUgA&adurl=&q=&nb=0&res_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnet.com%2Fsearch%2F%3Fq uery%3DNuheara&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnet.com%2Fproducts%2Fbose-quietcomfort-35%2F&nm=11&nx=218&ny=11&is=936x162)

Thanks for that JT I was going to splash out on some Bose 35's but will check these out. Hmm Nuheara on ASX - might be worth a closer look.

[winner69]

That's for sure. Readies need to be little smart and not completely dumb. When someone say jump or board doesn't mean have to follow and act. Everyone have their own opinions and sentiments.

I have seen this type of actions time to time. At end of February/march earlier similar thing happened with A2M 2-3 days lafter after 1h17 announcement. When scared kiwi mum/dad started dumping in morning before ASX open. I took the opportunity to buy ATM @ 2.28 (22cents cheaper) and sold it when first time it hit to 3.80 in May. Made a healthy profit of over $80k in short periods.

We all are here to make money 💰. Just need to be little smart with act.

Going to catch up couple of Friends. One is still working at Morgan Stanley.


Yep, got to act fast .....and with conviction to make a bob eh. I don't have the wherewithal to look at price actions every minute of the day - I leave that to you hungry guys.

Eval, I would have taken you for a Merrill Lynch type of guy.

Anyway have a good catchup with your friends - see if they know about AIR as a great investment.

[Raz]

Highly likely just some a bit tight set automatic stop-losses. Doubt that many mum and dad investors would use them.

I guess time will tell - but maybe the people who set these stop losses are at the end the lucky ones? Capital conservation is an important investment principle.

Discl: don't (hold) and didn't (sell);

Ah yes - and would expect AIR's next update to be positive (still reflecting the Lions tour), but not so sure about the one which will follow next. Remember - markets are forwards looking ...

Yes agree BP, mum and dad investors are usually out being well...mum and dads..not following the market in real time....

JT interesting..I like the size and convenience of those especially for travel

ps Tickets gone..hope you enjoy the game!

[Eval]

Another boost by AIR

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/95009663/New-air-link-meets-rising-demand-for-Japan-flights

[RTFQ]

I wonder if the whispers of Chicago will come to fruition? We'll know soon enough no doubt.

[value_investor]

Interesting events on the Friday I must say. I'm guessing some people read the announcement too fast (or just didn't read properly) panicked and thought their holdings were about to get diluted through a new share offer and started selling the entire boat. Good work to those ballsy enough to capitalise(pun intended).

Anyways, the result comes in a months time. Lets all gaze into our crystal balls and make some brave and foolish predictions. From memory, the interim result had 475m-525m predicted pre tax. Then we had the investor day where they said it would exceed the 525m mark. I guess they have information on forwards bookings at the time so there is a basis to it. It will be interesting to see if they blow it out of the water, would give the current share price some support.

[couta1]

Just checked into the Koru longue here in WGTN courtesy of my wife's Elite status(Never been in one before) About to enjoy lots of yummy food and drink. This time last year I was a large retail shareholder, things were pretty volatile back then on the Aircoaster. Just got a message that our flight has been delayed 45 mins, more time to pig out aye.

[winner69]

Just checked into the Koru longue here in WGTN courtesy of my wife's Elite status(Never been in one before) About to enjoy lots of yummy food and drink. This time last year I was a large retail shareholder, things were pretty volatile back then on the Aircoaster. Just got a message that our flight has been delayed 45 mins, more time to pig out aye.

Hope you get to wherever mate

Look out for eval in the Koru ...he might be there with you.

[Beagle]

Just checked into the Koru longue here in WGTN courtesy of my wife's Elite status(Never been in one before) About to enjoy lots of yummy food and drink. This time last year I was a large retail shareholder, things were pretty volatile back then on the Aircoaster. Just got a message that our flight has been delayed 45 mins, more time to pig out aye.

Have a great holiday in Queenstown mate. Beat up the ski slopes and us shareholders will enjoy a rest from you beating up on the share price, sorry buddy, I couldn't resist that quip :p

[Snow Leopard]

...as our flight has been delayed again, and it's not even a bad weather day.

You sure that this is Air NZ. Sounds like JetStar to me!

[tim23]

That scenario doesn't suit couta1!

[Beagle]

I wonder if the whispers of Chicago will come to fruition? We'll know soon enough no doubt.

Maybe range could be an issue on return flights into the prevailing wind ?

[winner69]

OPerating stats for June tomorrow (I hope)

Will tell us how much better H2 has been compared to H1 (where passenger revenue was down 4%)

AIR guidance is 'more than $525m' ....FBU guidance is 'about $525m' - spooky both pick on this magic number of 525

[Robomo]

Maybe range could be an issue on return flights into the prevailing wind ?

Auckland-Chicago is 13,170 km, published maximum range for the Qantas 787-9 is 14,856 km, sufficient for Sydney - Chicago. Qantas is already flying the 787-9 Perth-London, which is 14,429 km. So Chicago is well in range to and from Auckland.

The AIR 787-9s yet to be delivered have more business and PE seats that the current planes, presumably with an eye to the heavier demand for these seats out of USA. Chicago would have to be a serious contender once these planes are delivered later this year, particularly as all the USA routes are doing well. A fire hydrant and 1 sq m grass patch is provided for inflight beagles.

The Swiss airline intelligence provider ch-aviation.com report that AIR will be looking at future widebody requirements later this year. My bet is that the 777X would have to be the favourite to eventually replace the 777-200 planes, which will be 20 years old in 2025. The 777X has a similar range to the 787-9, seats 100+ more passengers and will be similar setup to existing 777-300ER and the 787s (i.e. type commonality).

[Beagle]

Thanks Robomo. You made some great points and thanks for the reminder about the different seating configuration of the forthcoming 787-9's. This would give them slightly longer range with less PAX load right ? Surely a sign that Chicago is indeed on the cards. Agree also with what you've said about the 777X. Was reading in Australian Aviation how Boeing may be looking at an ultra long range version of same. One day we might see Auckland to Europe non stop....might need a 2 sq m artificial grass patch for beagle exercise on a flight that long :)

[Raz]

Thanks Robomo. You made some great points and thanks for the reminder about the different seating configuration of the forthcoming 787-9's. This would give them slightly longer range with less PAX load right ? Surely a sign that Chicago is indeed on the cards. Agree also with what you've said about the 777X. Was reading in Australian Aviation how Boeing may be looking at an ultra long range version of same. One day we might see Auckland to Europe non stop....might need a 2 sq m artificial grass patch for beagle exercise on a flight that long :)

Chicago has been mentioned for a while..would be interesting what the perceived demand really is for that route.

[Robomo]

Chicago has been mentioned for a while..would be interesting what the perceived demand really is for that route.

I was in Hawaii a month ago and chatted to a lot of the tour operators we met about tourism (as you do!). They have increasing number of 'Snowbirds' coming from Northern USA during the American Winter, quite happy to now fly 8 hours to Hawaii compared to 3 to Florida for a similar comparative airfare they were paying 10 years ago. This correlates with the big increase in capacity by Hawaiian Airlines to the mainland states.

I would not be surprised to see AIR starting with x3 flights a week, perhaps more during the American winter to get those snowbirds down South to the NZ summer.

[arc]

What we need is for Boeing to get the "Fast-and-High" Supersonic models off the drawing board and onto the runway. They are a logical choice for the Northern Continents to Deep Pacific routes... Realising of course that they are not allowed to go Supersonic over solid land due to the sonic boom passing over mom n pop's backyard, might wake the beagle from his afternoon siesta...

[Marilyn Munroe]

What we need is for Boeing to get the "Fast-and-High" Supersonic models off the drawing board and onto the runway. They are a logical choice for the Northern Continents to Deep Pacific routes... Realising of course that they are not allowed to go Supersonic over solid land due to the sonic boom passing over mom n pop's backyard, might wake the beagle from his afternoon siesta...

Whilst the over-water routing of AKL --> West Coast North America are suited to supersonic flights there is an economic barrier to this type of aircraft.

It takes an enormous amount of thrust to overcome the demons of gravity and drag.

The cost of this would restrict passengers to cabinet ministers having a jolly on the tax payer or Silicon Valley billionaires wanting to jump the citizenship queue. A technological breakthrough would be needed to make these aircraft economic.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

"We obey the laws of fluid dynamics in this house."
Homer J Simpson.

[sb9]

OPerating stats for June tomorrow (I hope)

Will tell us how much better H2 has been compared to H1 (where passenger revenue was down 4%)

AIR guidance is 'more than $525m' ....FBU guidance is 'about $525m' - spooky both pick on this magic number of 525

Still no sign of those op stats for June, may be Eval can shed some light ;)

[Robomo]

Still no sign of those op stats for June, may be Eval can shed some light ;)

It may be that the accounting department have had to expand the column width in the spreadsheet to accommodate the increase in numbers. Held up whilst the IT department tell them how to do it.

[winner69]

Still no sign of those op stats for June, may be Eval can shed some light ;)

Eval did get his dates mixed up in the excitment

Anyway he is en route to the Big Apple (AIRpane of course) to see his Morgan Stanley mates

[see weed]

Good move -ADRs on the US market

That'll be attractive for those seekingalpha disciples


Another boost for AIR share price.

see weed reporting from Whagamata club. Not much talk on these ADR's from last weeks announcement. Not to sure on how it works, assume it makes it easier for Americans to buy up blocks of AIR shares. There won't be many left to buy if that's the case. Correct me if I'm wrong:confused:.

[hardt]

Implied 0% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+0)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $3.74

Implied 1% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+2)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $4.62

Aren't their earnings supposed to decline over the next 3-5 years?

[BlackPeter]

Implied 0% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+0)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $3.74

Implied 1% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+2)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $4.62

Aren't their earnings supposed to decline over the next 3-5 years?

Maybe you should add some examples with negative growth. Remember - tourism and air travel are very cyclical - and currently at the peak.

[winner69]

Maybe you should add some examples with negative growth. Remember - tourism and air travel are very cyclical - and currently at the peak.

IATA forecasting / projected continued growth over next 5 years - at 5%pa from memory

[Beagle]

IATA forecasting / projected continued growth over next 5 years - at 5%pa from memory

Exactly and AIR's more carefully disciplined growth rate is expected to match that and as they grow the company sustainably they leverage further efficiency from their ~ $600m per annum fixed cost base.

[BlackPeter]

IATA forecasting / projected continued growth over next 5 years - at 5%pa from memory

Just remind me - how accurate have been these IATA forecasts in the past - predicting economic downturns (e.g. around 2007) and more so key events like e.g. 9/11 or some of these volcanic activities? Did they predict that all :p? Any of it?

[mikeybycrikey]

Implied 0% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+0)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $3.74

Implied 1% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+2)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $4.62

Aren't their earnings supposed to decline over the next 3-5 years?

Any chance that someone could annotate this for me? Currently it doesn't mean much to me.

[winner69]

Just remind me - how accurate have been these IATA forecasts in the past - predicting economic downturns (e.g. around 2007) and more so key events like e.g. 9/11 or some of these volcanic activities? Did they predict that all :p? Any of it?

Bit like the building cycle eh - activity goes up and down like other cyclicals and many get it wrong

But you have to make some ssumptions about the future when you take a punt on a company. don't you?

As your hero says "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" My hero Yogi Berra said something similar

[Snow Leopard]

Implied 0% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+0)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $3.74

Implied 1% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+2)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $4.62

Aren't their earnings supposed to decline over the next 3-5 years?


Any chance that someone could annotate this for me? Currently it doesn't mean much to me.

35 -- EPS best guess for FY2017
(8.5+X) -- the much abused Graham formula
4.4/3.5 -- airline discount factor, accidentally inverted :(

Should read

0% growth = $0.35*(8.5+0)*3.5/4.4 = $2.37
1% growth = $0.35*(8.5+2)*3.5/4.4 = $2.92

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

35 -- EPS best guess for FY2017
(8.5+X) -- the much abused Graham formula
4.4/3.5 -- airline discount factor, accidentally inverted :(

Should read

0% growth = $0.35*(8.5+0)*3.5/4.4 = $2.37
1% growth = $0.35*(8.5+2)*3.5/4.4 = $2.92

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Interesting ....esp where you put your smilie thing

Benjamin didn't like airline stocks they say

[hardt]

Maybe you should add some examples with negative growth. Remember - tourism and air travel are very cyclical - and currently at the peak.

Airliners are cyclical for sure as margins expand and contract in their usual cycles, But with each cycle AIR moves through they will hit lows and highs that are both higher than the previous cycles.

Negative growth rate over the next 4 years will most likely be followed by positive growth rate thereafter, the valuation takes a look at a 7-10 year average.

[hardt]

35 -- EPS best guess for FY2017
(8.5+X) -- the much abused Graham formula
4.4/3.5 -- airline discount factor, accidentally inverted :(

Should read

0% growth = $0.35*(8.5+0)*3.5/4.4 = $2.37
1% growth = $0.35*(8.5+2)*3.5/4.4 = $2.92

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Honestly never knew he inverted yields with airliners, are you pulling my leg?

[Snow Leopard]

Honestly never knew he inverted yields with airliners, is that for real.

No I made that up - I think.

But kindly do tell us what is this 4.4/3.5 thing?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[hardt]

No I made that up - I think.

But kindly do tell us what is this 4.4/3.5 thing?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Graham revised the formula in 74 when he realised the greatest contributing factor behind stock values over the decade had been interest rates

At the time of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate (AAA 10-20y) was 4.4%.
To adjust this to the present we divide by todays AAA corporate bond rate which is around 3.5%

[Beagle]

Seeing as IATA are predicting medium term growth in passenger travel at 5% and AIR are putting on about that level of new capacity if one uses 5 for the g part of Ben Graham's formula you get a really interesting answer !...where's some facts like the latest monthly operating stat's.

[winner69]

Seeing as IATA are predicting medium term growth in passenger travel at 5% and AIR are putting on about that level of new capacity if one uses 5 for the g part of Ben Graham's formula you get a really interesting answer !...where's some facts like the latest monthly operating stat's.

But that would put AIR on a PE of 18.5 or in the other formula hardyakker uses at would be 23 plus ...at the top of the cycle as well

Even you know that's plain stupid ..... also highlights that old school methods don't work these days (nice way of saying that Ben's formula has some inherent flaws in it for these times)

But its fun eh ....saying that intrinsic valie of AIR is over $7 - isn't the market stupid giving it a 50% discount to Bens valuation

[Beagle]

But that would put AIR on a PE of 18.5 or in the other formula hardyakker uses at would be 23 plus ...at the top of the cycle as well

Even you know that's plain stupid ..... also highlights that old school methods don't work these days (nice way of saying that Ben's formula has some inherent flaws in it for these times)

But its fun eh ....saying that intrinsic valie of AIR is over $7 - isn't the market stupid giving it a 50% discount to Bens valuation

LOL yes its fun mate but even using my tight fisted valuation approach of only paying 1g that gives 37 x (8.5 + 5) = $4.99 but the sceptics will say that AIR can't possibly grow at 5% per annum for the foreseeable future across the cycles...but you never know maybe they can ?, here's a thought... maybe all those brokers DCF models using a 2% terminal growth rate are just a wild guess too :)

[hardt]

But that would put AIR on a PE of 18.5 or in the other formula hardyakker uses at would be 23 plus ...at the top of the cycle as well

Even you know that's plain stupid ..... also highlights that old school methods don't work these days (nice way of saying that Ben's formula has some inherent flaws in it for these times)

But its fun eh ....saying that intrinsic valie of AIR is over $7 - isn't the market stupid giving it a 50% discount to Bens valuation

Using the best case scenario to value a stock will never do you any good.

if this stock had 5% bottom line growth coming its way it would be $5+ but it doesn't - the market is aware of this.

The formula is only as good as the number you put in it.

[Jantar]

Using the best case scenario to value a stock will never do you any good.

if this stock had 5% bottom line growth coming its way it would be $5+ but it doesn't - the market is aware of this
So the increase of seat numbers over the next couple of years of around 10% does not equate to around a 5% growth?

[winner69]

Air management must be waiting eval to arrive in New York before releasing them ....maybe even needs his sign off

[sb9]

Air management must be waiting eval to arrive in New York before releasing them ....maybe even needs his sign off

The last four months op stats have been dated 21-Mar, 27-Apr, 24-May and 20-Jun...going by that they should've been out by now...

[Marilyn Munroe]

You may recall Cullen Airlines sold its interest in Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) to HNA who swooped in quicker than a blow-fly targeting an outback dunny.

It now seems the HNA Group is having problems with its banking relationships;

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-halts-deals-hna-224505831.html

Should Cullen Airlines do a Kerry Packer/Allan Bond type deal and buy back in cheap?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

No chance of that Marilyn...but here we go again on the aircoaster....who's game to get some more this time ?

[Bobdn]

Not me, to be honest I've been aghast at this thread and kind of had to look away. I own Air (average buy price 2.42) and like the company but the enthusiasm for this stock, especially after a 40 per cent increase in just three months, left me feeling anxious.

[RTM]

It's a relief to see it taking a breather to be honest. I can finally take a breath.
Sort of prefer slow and steady like HBL. ~7 & 14 % of portfolio.

[bull....]

back under 3 soon i reckon

[winner69]

back under 3 soon i reckon

Eval and his mate GT won't be happy

[bull....]

Eval and his mate gg won't be happy

very long term charts show anything above 3 is paying premium class

[see weed]

it's not all mine. my order was filled between these trades.after that price straight jumped to 3.28 otherwise have topped up more 20k to 30k volumes if stayed under 3.25 . love affair with AIR :cool:. made me more rich in last 5 yrs :t_up:. 100% portfolio in AIR. holding over 230k volumes. no risk no gain simple is that.

hope some punters doubt may have cleared :cool:

Are you still with us Eval? Or have you sold down? Time to top up again;).

[GTI]

very long term charts show anything above 3 is paying premium class

Predicting the future is hard...but not as hard as predicting the results for an airline with sound management. Thanks for your advice, i will buy more below $3 if it happens again.

[bull....]

Predicting the future is hard...but not as hard as predicting the results for an airline with sound management. Thanks for your advice, i will buy more below $3 if it happens again.

good result for sure coming.

I have to laugh sometimes ( not at you ) it wasnt that long ago it was up at $3 everyone was glowing in enthused like then it fell back to 1.75 everyone was so sad now we back at over $3 everyone is very enthused.............

[see weed]

No chance of that Marilyn...but here we go again on the aircoaster....who's game to get some more this time ?

Just picked some up for 3.285:scared:

[nocomment]

Are you still with us Eval? Or have you sold down? Time to top up again;).

im still pretty new to all this but i did wonder about the rationale buying when it dipped down to 320 the other day. did those traders know it was going to pop back up? are short spikes like that common? or is it just casino trading?

[Beagle]

Just picked some up for 3.285:scared:

Ladies and Gentlemen this is your captain speaking. We apoligise for the unexpected turbulence on today's flight and want to assure you its well within the design tolerance of this aircraft. We have removed the seat belt sign and please feel free to move around the cabin at will. The next meal and drinks service will be here shortly and in the meantime please sit back and relax and enjoy the rest of your flight. Feeling less scared now mate ?

[Oliver Mander]

Have just topped up a bit at 3.28. In spite of feeling a bit nervous on the scale of today's movement...advance warning of some poor operating June stats perhaps...? But then, that would be inside knowledge and that NEVER happens...:p!

[see weed]

im still pretty new to all this but i did wonder about the rationale buying when it dipped down to 320 the other day. did those traders know it was going to pop back up? are short spikes like that common? or is it just casino trading?
A bit of all that. I'm not too worried, have bought in at both ends 1.71 up to 3.42 with 2.70s ave price and look forward to 10k div soon. Would be great to hear from Eval again, see if he is promoting AIR to his New Yorker friends:D.

[winner69]

very long term charts show anything above 3 is paying premium class

baabaa's long term chart posted the other day was intriguing .... since 2001 or so it never stays at one place for long - generally its either going uo fast or going down fast (no hanging around at the top or the bottom)

If this is one of those going down phases its likley to go down to 200/250 ....but it'll shoot up again so over a year or so no worries

Fundamentals don't matter with AIR - at the top of the cycle a PE of 6 or 7 is reasonable - ie 200/250 again -- spooky

[Eval]

Sorry guys was pretty busy finalising over 50mil company deals here in NY. Not given much attention to ST.


@see_weeds, im still holding, i guess my holding in AIR may be bigger then any ST members here. Im not panicking with this price drops ( even last few sessions have wiped out my over 30k paper profits). I will announce here when i will exit AIR. Not anytime soon.

@winners, sincerely apologise for OPS stats🤑.Have singed off. Will be out tomorrow or next day so.

🛫🛫🛫🛫✈️✈️✈️✈️

Time to go its almost 2.

[winner69]

Sorry guys was pretty busy finalising over 50mil company deals here in NY. Not given much attention to ST.


@see_weeds, im still holding, i guess my holding in AIR may be bigger then any ST members here. Im not panicking with this price drops ( even last few sessions have wiped out my over 30k paper profits). I will announce here when i will exit AIR. Not anytime soon.

@winners, sincerely apologise for OPS stats🤑.Have singed off. Will be out tomorrow or next day so.

🛫🛫🛫🛫✈️✈️✈️✈️

Time to go its almost 2.

hey Eval - you might be surprised how big some STers holdings might be. I would hazard a guess a few with more than you. But never mind whose the biggest as long as most are making plenty (relative to their means) alls fine and dandy eh

Glad you having fun in the Big Apple doing those deals - even if it tiring and stressful work it's still fun doing deals.

Caught up with your Morgan Stanley mates yet and touted AIR as a buy. Might be the triggger to get the share price moving up again ha ha

Cheers mate

[GTI]

Just picked some up for 3.285:scared:

My order at $3.30 got picked up in the afternoon:eek2::t_up:

[RupertBear]

But are you not buying on a downtrend? Or is it not a downtrend yet? What makes you think it wont keep going down? :confused: . Hmm watching amd waiting! :)

[see weed]

But are you not buying on a downtrend? Or is it not a downtrend yet? What makes you think it wont keep going down? :confused: . Hmm watching amd waiting! :)
If you buy when it goes down, chances are you will gain when it goes up. AIR is in a lot better position now than a year ago. It could go either way, but when Eval gets back with all his New Yorker friends the sp is bound to go up on this new found airline, they will all want a slice. Good results coming soon plus div. they will all like a piece of the action, and will be tripping over each other to get in:D.

[stoploss]

Sorry guys was pretty busy finalising over 50mil company deals here in NY. Not given much attention to ST.


@see_weeds, im still holding, i guess my holding in AIR may be bigger then any ST members here. Im not panicking with this price drops ( even last few sessions have wiped out my over 30k paper profits). I will announce here when i will exit AIR. Not anytime soon.

@winners, sincerely apologise for OPS stats螺.Have singed off. Will be out tomorrow or next day so.

✈️✈️✈️✈️

Time to go its almost 2.

Little song for you Eval https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y61VU9pKqqQ&list=RDY61VU9pKqqQ#t=20

Pity KP isn't still around he would " toss you for the $ 50 mio "

All the best in the Big AAPL.

[winner69]

Little song for you Eval https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y61VU9pKqqQ&list=RDY61VU9pKqqQ#t=20

Pity KP isn't still around he would " toss you for the $ 50 mio "

All the best in the Big AAPL.

Good band that The Beautiful South even if some of their songs are a bit quirky. They came from Hull but thought that The Ugly North wouldn't hack it as a band hence The Beautiful South

Eval will be having a ball now the big deal is done and dusted

[GTI]

But are you not buying on a downtrend? Or is it not a downtrend yet? What makes you think it wont keep going down? :confused: . Hmm watching amd waiting! :)

There's no way i can predict or time the market. I don't know whether its up or down trend but i know good management = good results = good share price.

[winner69]

My order at $3.30 got picked up in the afternoon:eek2::t_up:

Your sell order?

I thought you were in boots and all

[see weed]

Ladies and Gentlemen this is your captain speaking. We apoligise for the unexpected turbulence on today's flight and want to assure you its well within the design tolerance of this aircraft. We have removed the seat belt sign and please feel free to move around the cabin at will. The next meal and drinks service will be here shortly and in the meantime please sit back and relax and enjoy the rest of your flight. Feeling less scared now mate ?
Was scared buying in at 2.90, and was scared buying in at 90c to 1,04c five years ago. I like scary. But AIR is less scary than five years ago.:)

[Raz]

Was scared buying in at 2.90, and was scared buying in at 90c to 1,04c five years ago. I like scary. But AIR is less scary than five years ago.:)

Hmm when I'm away not watching the market i place stop losses on AIR..does anyone else do this around here? It moves so quickly at times.

[Xerof]

Raz, no, never used a physical stop order, as they become targets for brokers who treat retail like flies to ping off, but am guessing the recent plunge to 3.20 was your stop being executed? I have a self imposed level for a stop, and if the price CLOSES at or below, I will execute at the next mornings auction

[Raz]

Raz, no, never used a physical stop order, as they become targets for brokers who treat retail like flies to ping off, but am guessing the recent plunge to 3.20 was your stop being executed? I have a self imposed level for a stop, and if the price CLOSES at or below, I will execute at the next mornings auction

Thanks for for your thoughts, no not the 3.20.. much higher and currently will make on the deal although was not planning to spend the time looking at buying in again..

[GTI]

Your sell order?

I thought you were in boots and all

It was my buy order...

[Snow Leopard]

Op Stats even more delayed than the midday flight from Ekatahuna.

BW PT

[winner69]

35 -- EPS best guess for FY2017
(8.5+X) -- the much abused Graham formula
4.4/3.5 -- airline discount factor, accidentally inverted :(

Should read

0% growth = $0.35*(8.5+0)*3.5/4.4 = $2.37
1% growth = $0.35*(8.5+2)*3.5/4.4 = $2.92

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You headed this post 'do a decent DCF'

I don't think anybody bothers do a DCF on airlines - if they do doesn't seem to drive the share price.

Takes an awful lot of future cash flow to get a value of $5.5 billion for AIR - esp if you look at recent cash flows.

Anyway PT - doesn't matter because the market is saying AIRs worth 330 anywhere.

[Beagle]

Brokers DCF's told us all the company was worth an consensus average of just $2.19 as late as the end of May 2017 when the SP was close to $3.
Every analyst DCF I have seen only forecasts free cash flow for the next five years and then assumes a terminal growth rate of 2% thereafter. and there's the fundamental flaw with their DCF guesses right there. Recent DCF's are not picking up the tremendous free cash flow in the 2023 and 2024 years when the company is still ostensibly on a capex holiday because its outside of the timeframe of their specific 5 year estimates. No wonder very few N.Z. institutions and retail holders left because most are relying on analysts that cannot think further out than 5 years. They should put their headlights on full beam and they might get better visibility !

[workingdad]

I also think many analysts assumed an increase in base oil prices but even the oil companies are anticipating current prices to remain for the foreseeable future including 2018.

Second article down on this link is interesting supporting low oil prices

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/big-oil-earnings-beat-slump-as-ceos-learn-to-live-with-50-crude

Competition has not had the impact expected, migration and tourism touted to stay high I think AIR going forward is pretty well placed to keep generating good profits. I might have sold half my holdings early in the rise locking in some gains but no plans to sell any time soon for the remainder with a buy in of 2.01 to 2.17 not to mention some good dividends since.

Loose stop loss in place that hasn't been triggered yet but my guess is low volume today while people sit back and wait for monthly stats giving the full year picture a bit more detail.

[Beagle]

I think the other thing mate is that analysts are not understanding that oil prices and yield are inextricably linked and to some extent new competition emerges with very cheap oil too. You think 10 new competitors would have all opened up new long range routes to N.Z. late last year with $60 oil instead of the $30 oil at that time ?

AIR are well positioned with a very young streamlined and fuel efficient fleet. With $60-70 oil they're probably better positioned from a competitive point of view than they are now. Oil goes back up and so do yields and competition goes down. My core point, mid priced aviation fuel costs are best for AIR.

[IAK]

Intetesting read on how flying may change in the future. http://nzh.tw/11895199

[sb9]

Another day passes and yet no sign of those Op stats, hmmm...

[winner69]

Another day passes and yet no sign of those Op stats, hmmm...

......have to wait for eval to get back from New York

[BlackPeter]

......have to wait for eval to get back from New York

He probably is still working on these stats ... if you look a bit deeper we might find he is flying with a backdated plane :p;

[Beagle]

Maybe the steam powered abacus's the bean counters use have overheated due to excessive loading while crunching the numbers for the annual result :)

[Robomo]

I rang AIR Investor Relations. They advise June Op Stats will be released either tomorrow or Monday.

[sb9]

I rang AIR Investor Relations. They advise June Op Stats will be released either tomorrow or Monday.

Thanks for that Robomo, great stuff.

[Raz]

......have to wait for eval to get back from New York

Possibly his encryption has been compromised (CIA and dam NSA) and he can't send them back to HO ... rouge insiders everywhere!

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95180448/australasian-aviation-lobby-group-appoints-new-boss?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+28+J uly+2017

[winner69]

Possibly his encryption has been compromised (CIA and dam NSA) and he can't send them back to HO ... rouge insiders everywhere!

Hope he's not using some insecure free wifi connection

[winner69]

No exciting news from AIR this week by looks of it

I blame eval for all this

Probably negotiating an extension of his margin lending account so he can go 150% all in on AIR

[workingdad]

I don't think its helping the SP much, muted volumes 3rd day in a row....

I am not expecting any surprises and look forward to full year results to exceed expectations and forward guidance but how much of that is already priced in is the big question.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11895927

Poor reporting because it didn't even contain the revised guidance by the company on 1 June but I provided a link nonetheless for those interested.

[see weed]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11895927

Poor reporting because it didn't even contain the revised guidance by the company on 1 June but I provided a link nonetheless for those interested.
Do you think those ADR's will have a positive effect on the sp? I'm hoping so.

[Beagle]

Extra liquidity is usually a good thing mate.

[ziggy415]

Just had the pleasure of partaking a 10 hour flight on one of your flagship aircraft...boy do you get well looked after in business...or as far as I could see from the back of the plane....should of asked Jerry brownlee...no cattle class for him..just straight to the front never to be seen again...top class, top service all round and professionals..only complaint was the peas,bit hard to eat with a fork on a bumpy flight..

[Robomo]

Just had the pleasure of partaking a 10 hour flight on one of your flagship aircraft...boy do you get well looked after in business...or as far as I could see from the back of the plane....should of asked Jerry brownlee...no cattle class for him..just straight to the front never to be seen again...top class, top service all round and professionals..only complaint was the peas,bit hard to eat with a fork on a bumpy flight..

Just mash them!

[arc]

Do you think those ADR's will have a positive effect on the sp? I'm hoping so.
Looking at the performance of AIA, the introduction of ADRs is a mixed bag. Instead of remaining a steady growth company it has degraded into a range bound up-down cyclical waste. The graphs are showing the distinct Rinse, Wash, Repeat. There are definite signs of the robot trading software driving the trends but I'm also wondering if some Americans are in need of regular instant cash Fix's. If so then its a worrying development... Sort of speaks to the underlying stability of the market as a whole...

[Beagle]

Oil up 16% in July 2017 so far and its resulted in something of a healthy, (in my view) correction to all the airline stocks I follow.
I've mentioned at least twice already in early July I expected some consolidation around the $3.20 - $3.30 level. AIR finished the June quarter at $3.26 so towards the back end of July the stock has performed as I expected, early July was a surprise as it roared away as high as $3.60.

Wouldn't read too much into the tea leaves of ADR trading, AIR cruising along around this level with some turbulence like most other airlines are. Solid fundamentals underpin the stock at this level but watch Oil. In the long run a move up into the mid - late $50's or even $60 - $70 won't hurt AIR with its young fuel efficient fleet as oil prices and yield are usually inextricably linked but it could affect short term sentiment. We need some earnings insight before we can establish where to from here but I am very confident in the long term dividend yield which is my primary reason for investing so although I took a little bit of cream off the top of a tasty cappuccino (so too speak) earlier this month I remain with my core holding. It has clearly broken down through the 30 day MA so some caution is warranted.

[winner69]

Good airlines extracting maximum profit out of available space .....but maybe getting too greedy .....and we know what happens then.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/29/incredible-shrinking-airline-seat-us-court-says-seat-size-a-safety-issue

AIR not lily white on some of measurements mentioned in the article

[Baa_Baa]

Good airlines extracting maximum profit out of available space .....but maybe getting too greedy .....and we know what happens then.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/29/incredible-shrinking-airline-seat-us-court-says-seat-size-a-safety-issue

AIR not lily white on some of measurements mentioned in the article

Goodness me, please don't get the cheerleader started on the size of AIR seats and spacing again vs the rest of the airlines, or maybe just reference the numerous posts on the matter. Do we really want that whole marketing promotions campaign repeated?

Lol ;)

[winner69]

Goodness me, please don't get the cheerleader started on the size of AIR seats and spacing again vs the rest of the airlines, or maybe just reference the numerous posts on the matter. Do we really want that whole marketing promotions campaign repeated?

Lol ;)

Ha ha

Their seats on the Dreamliner are over 17cm ....just at 17.2 cm

Don't think you can get much smaller than that

Good they squeeze as many as they can in ....more money for shareholders

[Snow Leopard]

Goodness me, please don't get the cheerleader started on the size of AIR seats and spacing again vs the rest of the airlines, or maybe just reference the numerous posts on the matter. Do we really want that whole marketing promotions campaign repeated?

Lol ;)

Do you not like to play 'Beagle Buzzword Bingo' then?

Only yesterday I won a set of steak knives, a luxury weekend in Ekatahuna and a cuddly teddy bear when I had all four of 'young fuel efficient fleet'.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I always fill the Webcast Bingo Card up in the first few minutes when AIRcasts are on. AIR are the buzzword champions of NZ.

[Beagle]

Ha ha

Their seats on the Dreamliner are over 17cm ....just at 17.2 cm

Don't think you can get much smaller than that

Good they squeeze as many as they can in ....more money for shareholders

AIR Asia X 16.5 cm and their shocking seat pitch as well as Jetstar's with the Dreamliner turn it into anything but. I am sure if you looked into it that some of the Chinese owned airlines have been reinventing the wheel in terms of seating density too. AIR have a new configuration coming for their remaining dreamliners with about 275 seats down from just over 300. 787-9 a cunning trick, create a sense of spaciousness with bigger windows, fancy lighting e.t.c. and then cram them in nice and tight, a real bean counters aircraft, love them heaps !:t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Beagle]

It will be their second highest ever profit in their 77 year history, (mark my words) and that against an onslaught of new competition this year.
FY17 the year AIR proved the strength and veracity of their business model in a heightened competitive environment which augers extremely well for FY18 and beyond.
Disciplined growth going forward, definitely growing across the cycle and one of the very few international airlines to make money throughout the GFC. One of the most robust business models out there which is a credit to management and directors alike. All good, no worries. Would you like one of my Vitamin D happy pills Winner :D
Someone's been shooting some nice video for those of us mere mortals that cannot afford business premier on the new Dreamliner here's your chance to have a free look.
The size of those windows and their clarity is extremely impressive, wonder if Metroglass makes those :) Check the takeoff how quiet it is up front at the 7:30 mark and the seats and everything, could be Mr and Mrs Raz, such a handsome couple ! https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cheerleader+on+air+n.z+flight.&&view=detail&mid=842FB5B898AE15C95713842FB5B898AE15C95713&FORM=VRDGAR

[winner69]

I've deleted my rants about how greedy and evil airlines (including AIR) are these days.

If anybody has read them I apologise for posting such stuff on this thread - they had no right to be on here. Sorry

[Baa_Baa]

Good airlines extracting maximum profit out of available space .....but maybe getting too greedy .....and we know what happens then.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/29/incredible-shrinking-airline-seat-us-court-says-seat-size-a-safety-issue

AIR not lily white on some of measurements mentioned in the article

See what you've done, let the marketing promo genie out of the bottle again. Good grief. Time to take a holiday from this thread for fear of dying from repetition and check back in when the SP get's it's next walloping, which it will.

;) Take a break, now there's a thought. Hmmm.

[JeremyALD]

It will be their second highest ever profit in their 77 year history, (mark my words) and that against an onslaught of new competition this year.
FY17 the year AIR proved the strength and veracity of their business model in a heightened competitive environment which augers extremely well for FY18 and beyond.
Disciplined growth going forward, definitely growing across the cycle and one of the very few international airlines to make money throughout the GFC. One of the most robust business models out there which is a credit to management and directors alike. All good, no worries. Would you like one of my Vitamin D happy pills Winner :D
Someone's been shooting some nice video for those of us mere mortals that cannot afford business premier on the new Dreamliner here's your chance to have a free look.
The size of those windows and their clarity is extremely impressive, wonder if Metroglass makes those :) Check the takeoff how quiet it is up front at the 7:30 mark and the seats and everything, could be Mr and Mrs Raz, such a handsome couple ! https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cheerleader+on+air+n.z+flight.&&view=detail&mid=842FB5B898AE15C95713842FB5B898AE15C95713&FORM=VRDGAR

My concern would be competition increasing in the domestic market. AIR make a killing out of domestic travel, especially on business flights. Would be interesting if a new competitor entered the market, or if Jetstar expanded their network what would happen.

[Benny1]

My concern would be competition increasing in the domestic market. AIR make a killing out of domestic travel, especially on business flights. Would be interesting if a new competitor entered the market, or if Jetstar expanded their network what would happen.
You are correct that Air certainly makes a killing on the domestic front.
Hard to see anyone entering the market AIR and Jetstar have it pretty well sown up.
Jetstar have grown to a sustainable size in my opinion.. It's hard to see them expanding much beyond what they are currently doing.
AIR are a very canny and slick operation very hard for someone else to come in..
Ansett ,Kiwi Airlines, Qantas New Zealand, and more recently KRA have all been and gone.... To name a few

[Beagle]

I've deleted my rants about how greedy and evil airlines (including AIR) are these days.

If anybody has read them I apologise for posting such stuff on this thread - they had no right to be on here. Sorry

I was wondering if you'd got bogged down reading Ecclesiastes which can be a depressing read in places until you get to the last two verses of chapter 12 which give two incredibly valuable insights :)


My concern would be competition increasing in the domestic market. AIR make a killing out of domestic travel, especially on business flights. Would be interesting if a new competitor entered the market, or if Jetstar expanded their network what would happen.

Jetstar been pulling back on frequency on regional routes over winter citing lack of demand, (posted a link verifying same a while back). I think AIR have them on the back foot or is it simply that Jetstar keep shooting themselves in the foot with their "service" level's and increasing people have simply had enough ?, either way I don't have any concerns on that front.

[winner69]

Stats out for June

Where's eval ...needs to tell us what the stats mean

Hope he hasn't got into trouble with the whores on Seventh Avenue - not that I know if there actually are whores on Seventh Avenue but Simon and Garfunkel said there was.

[RTM]

Stats out for June

Where's eval ...needs to tell us what the stats mean

Hope he hasn't got into trouble with the whores on Seventh Avenue - not that I know if there actually are whores on Seventh Avenue but Simon and Garfunkel said there was.

All sounded ok to me until I got to this bit....

"For the financial year to date, Short Haul passenger revenue per ASK (RASK)*
decreased 4.2% and Long Haul RASK* decreased 12.9%. Removing the impact of
foreign exchange, Group-wide RASK* decreased 6.3%, and Group-wide yields for
the financial year to date decreased 5.0% on the same period last year. "

[winner69]

Those stats imply H2 passenger revenues were down slightly on last year. This was better than the 4% decline in H1.

So FY passenger revenues down about 2%. Profit will be lower (although second best ever in 75 years operation) and cash flow probably less than lasy year as well. Growth company ....hmmm .....but F18 will be heaps better so no worries

[Joshuatree]

Are we up for a special div this year or just re a 10c for the half ? .Sorry if opinions have already been expressed here. We are up to the 300th page and I'm not scrolling too far back.:closed eyes:

[sb9]

Lacklustre trading volume over past few days...bit like their latest op stats!!!

[Beagle]

Nothing wrong with operating stat's, sound. Its all about yield per RPK and its a tale of two halves. 2H yield dramatically better than first half when 10 new entrants launched new services into N.Z. First half profit speaks for itself and second half will shortly too and we're already into 1HFY18 lapping the same period in IHFY 17 when yields were artificially low due to 10 new entrants launching opening specials for months on end at unsustainably low prices. Expecting minimum of $575m profit before tax for FY17 and outlook is very sound indeed, no worries.

[Robomo]

Nothing wrong with operating stat's, sound. Its all about yield per RPK and its a tale of two halves. 2H yield dramatically better than first half when 10 new entrants launched new services into N.Z. First half profit speaks for itself and second half will shortly too and we're already into 1HFY18 lapping the same period in IHFY 17 when yields were artificially low due to 10 new entrants launching opening specials for months on end at unsustainably low prices. Expecting minimum of $575m profit before tax for FY17 and outlook is very sound indeed, no worries.

Don't forget the 'young fuel efficient fleet' as well! :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Have refreshed myself now ;the sale of virgin led to the special div last time. Forecast yield re 6% Gross D/Y on 73.5% payout ratio,.? Yield dropped a lot with s/p increase.Average t/p on 4traders still $2.81 and $2.45 at craigs:). What will the overseas holders do(they own half the NZX and prob a lot more % in AIR atpit)? Holding atp.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Jetstar been pulling back on frequency on regional routes over winter citing lack of demand, (posted a link verifying same a while back). I think AIR have them on the back foot or is it simply that Jetstar keep shooting themselves in the foot with their "service" level's and increasing people have simply had enough ?, either way I don't have any concerns on that front.

Propstar operates old bangers which Queer and Nasty Airlines couldn't sell so sent them across the ditch to extract some cash for their remaining economic life. If Propstar isn't making money when the issue of replacement aircraft comes around Queer and Nasty Airlines may say yeah-nah.

This will further embed Cullen Airlines domestic monopoly to the delight of shareholders but cause pain to provincial travelers wallets.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[barleeni]

AIR ends the day with a market cap of $3.8b, and expecting npat of $575m (likely to be exceeded!?!?).
FBU ends the day with a market cap of $5.6b, and expecting npat of $525m (likely to be lower?!?!)

Somethings wrong with this picture!!!!

I know which one id feel safer holding

(disc. hold AIR do not hold FBU)

[workingdad]

It could be interesting to compare this year's NPAT versus last years (not including Virgin sale), maybe not as big of an income/profit gap as the bottom line alone indicates?

Earnings before taxation last year 806 million (200million in tax).

There's cargo earnings to come into it with further anticipated growth on last year.

RASK may be down from todays stats but how many additional ASK flown has there been with the addition of many routes?

Air had 68% fuel hedging in place for this year as early as they could maximising hedges allowances at some good rates and even with the additional kms flown I wonder if the major expense of fuel is on par with last year but they did hedge USD at 67.5 (575 million worth).

I don't have a great deal in AIR so not focused on it and still have a lot to learn about all things share trading but my thoughts for whatever they are worth is AIR is performing very well and managed a far better year than predicted by many but maybe just within their own broad estimate of 400-600million NPAT and a very solid year indeed :)

[King1212]

AIR ends the day with a market cap of $3.8b, and expecting npat of $575m (likely to be exceeded!?!?).
FBU ends the day with a market cap of $5.6b, and expecting npat of $525m (likely to be lower?!?!)

Somethings wrong with this picture!!!!

I know which one id feel safer holding

(disc. hold AIR do not hold FBU)


Pay with market cap almost $600m ...making loss,,revenue less than $100m. ...what people going to say about that? Share market is irrational.......

[Joshuatree]

Have refreshed myself now ;the sale of virgin led to the special div last time. Forecast yield re 6% Gross D/Y on 73.5% payout ratio,.? Yield dropped a lot with s/p increase.Average t/p on 4traders still $2.81 and $2.45 at craigs:). What will the overseas holders do(they own half the NZX and prob a lot more % in AIR atpit)? Holding atp.

Have read a few more threads(alot of spin in there); so correcting my post to refer back to.
Foreign ownership now re 39% up 12 % on re 4 months ago. Re 4 % NZ retail holders( some of us) and 5% NZ Instos (some of us?) and govt still with 52%; must be tempting for Nats to sell down more at these prices.

[winner69]

AIR ends the day with a market cap of $3.8b, and expecting npat of $575m (likely to be exceeded!?!?).
FBU ends the day with a market cap of $5.6b, and expecting npat of $525m (likely to be lower?!?!)

Somethings wrong with this picture!!!!

I know which one id feel safer holding

(disc. hold AIR do not hold FBU)

Market probably expecting FBU to make heaps more next year while AIR might make a little more at best

[Beagle]

Expect the market to be disappointed with FBU on an ongoing basis with their deep systemic company issues not all by any means of which have come to the surface yet and pleased with AIR's FY18 earnings. The caliber of the management could not be more diametrically opposed in my view and I'd back superb management over bad any day of the week with my capital. I think the comparison of PE's for these two cyclical's is a valid and interesting one and continue to believe FBU is seriously mispriced to the high side.

[Raz]

little light..however thought a couple of points may be of interest to some...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11897087

[RTFQ]

From a BBC article about pollution as opposed to carbon:
What about aeroplanes? How much air pollution is caused by aircraft?In the UK about 1% of nitrogen dioxide emissions are caused by aviation. Far more are caused by people driving to airports in their cars.

[Beagle]

Good post RAZ and this, extracting more utilization from its existing domestic fleet http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1707/S00783/air-nz-gears-up-for-summer-with-180000-extra-seats.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+1+A ugust+2017

[Joshuatree]

Yes very int read thanks Raz. Cheaper to have hols overseas now.

"But New Zealanders also have this tourism boom to thank for low international fares as it is the inbound market that is driving the number of seats.
House of Travel founder Chris Paulsen says there's been 750,000 additional seats in the market in just the past 12 months alone.
"That hasn't come in because of outbound demand. It's airlines positioning themselves for the future of travel in the Asia-Pacific of which New Zealand is going to be a key component."

[Raz]

somewhat of a follow up on the earlier article although more AIR focused

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11897478

Air New Zealand's chief revenue officer Cam Wallace said

"More and more we're making data-driven decisions on pricing. We have so much history and understand when demand is coming in. Sometimes it requires us to be super aggressive on price points and other times we're confident to hold out because we know last-minute demand will come in," he said.

They have really improved in this area over the past year...

[see weed]

Have noticed quiet trading in last couple of days and then plenty of buyers coming in at end of day...last 15 minutes, but also plenty of sellers, but sp quite stable, but only less than 0.001% of shares, so what are the other 99.999% of shares doing? Who is buying? Who is selling? Maybe off shore buyers, Maybe on shore sellers? Or maybe we are all waiting for div day and how much sp drops after div., if it drops. New buyers coming in will probably not be selling very soon. If sp doesn't drop, then is $3.30 new low? Who knows? I'm holding and looking forward to big juicy div.;)

[Beagle]

Have noticed quiet trading in last couple of days and then plenty of buyers coming in at end of day...last 15 minutes, but also plenty of sellers, but sp quite stable, but only less than 0.001% of shares, so what are the other 99.999% of shares doing? Who is buying? Who is selling? Maybe off shore buyers, Maybe on shore sellers? Or maybe we are all waiting for div day and how much sp drops after div., if it drops. New buyers coming in will probably not be selling very soon. If sp doesn't drop, then is $3.30 new low? Who knows? I'm holding and looking forward to big juicy div.;)

Dow transports index been under price pressure in late July, all of the airlines I follow had their wings clipped a bit after a stellar run before that. Very slight increase overnight on first day of August trading. I'm expecting consolidation round the current flight level until we get more visibility on earnings. Patience my friend.

[winner69]

Dow transports index been under price pressure in late July, all of the airlines I follow had their wings clipped a bit after a stellar run before that. Very slight increase overnight on first day of August trading. I'm expecting consolidation round the current flight level until we get more visibility on earnings. Patience my friend.

As long as the AIR share price outperforms that global airline index Chris and his mates will be happy - greedy lot

[Raz]

As long as the AIR share price outperforms that global airline index Chris and his mates will be happy - greedy lot

Have a mutual acquaintance to one of the executives...they certainly need the bonus to pay for living life large :-)

[winner69]

Have a mutual acquaintance to one of the executives...they certainly need the bonus to pay for living life large :-)

Most Australians would say Chris and his mates are an unethical lot
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/ceo-pay-of-600k-is-unethical-survey-20170801-gxmzqt.html

I'd say most Kiwi's would e horrified by what they get paid as well.

Their comeuppance will come one day

[Beagle]

Most Australians would say Chris and his mates are an unethical lot
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/ceo-pay-of-600k-is-unethical-survey-20170801-gxmzqt.html

I'd say most Kiwi's would e horrified by what they get paid as well.

Their comeuppance will come one day

Haven't we covered this once or twice already mate ?

[GTI]

Haven't we covered this once or twice already mate ?

Apple quarterly results announced today as surpassing expectations. Check out Tim's pay...

[Clints]

Wouldn't be an easy job.

[Raz]

Apple quarterly results announced today as surpassing expectations. Check out Tim's pay...

Nice bump up in SP..me happy... and Tim has a tough gig as CEO..

[winner69]

Nice bump up in SP..me happy... and Tim has a tough gig as CEO..


Relative to our Chris Tim is probably underpaid

[Marilyn Munroe]

I hope Cullen Airlines have banked the cheque and had it cleared.

The mystery surrounding the buyer of their stake in Virgin(under arm bowlers division) is intensifying.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/who-really-owns-this-19-per-cent-stake-in-virgin-australia-20170807-gxqsp8.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Leftfield]

I hope Cullen Airlines have banked the cheque and had it cleared.

The mystery surrounding the buyer of their stake in Virgin(under arm bowlers division) is intensifying.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/who-really-owns-this-19-per-cent-stake-in-virgin-australia-20170807-gxqsp8.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Interesting article, thanks!

[percy]

I hope Cullen Airlines have banked the cheque and had it cleared.

The mystery surrounding the buyer of their stake in Virgin(under arm bowlers division) is intensifying.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/who-really-owns-this-19-per-cent-stake-in-virgin-australia-20170807-gxqsp8.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

They are also the buyers of UDC Finance...
May we live in interesting times.

[Beagle]

I hope Cullen Airlines have banked the cheque and had it cleared.

The mystery surrounding the buyer of their stake in Virgin(under arm bowlers division) is intensifying.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/who-really-owns-this-19-per-cent-stake-in-virgin-australia-20170807-gxqsp8.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

The cheque was banked quite some time ago and funds cleared. AIR's shareholders loan account, (AKA prop up the sinking ship fund) has also been repaid. Chris Luxon earned his bonus last year extricating AIR from that pup !

[Fatboyj]

Just checked online to find why this is down heavily today. Came across this article. http://dasherbusinessreview.com/air-new-zealand-ltd-air-nz-key-technical-levels-in-focus/

I'm sure the following makes perfect sense to most guys, but me being a noob I was chuckling reading it. Here's a snipit I found lolworthy -
When there are crossovers between the FAMA and MAMA, the shares are often widely traded. When the MAMA crosses above the FAMA, it means that the shares are likely to move higher. Conversely the opposite occurs when the MAMA crosses below the FAMA.

[see weed]

Just the usual down day, and up end of day. Results in two weeks and div in 4:).

[Fatboyj]

With the price down from the 3.60 level some weeks back, is part of this because there's not likely to be a special dividend paid?

[RupertBear]

Craigs have downgraded it to a sell today

[Beagle]

Craigs have downgraded it to a sell today

A little presumptuous seeing as they don't know what the earnings are, I would have thought.

[see weed]

With the price down from the 3.60 level some weeks back, is part of this because there's not likely to be a special dividend paid?
25c special was paid Sept 2016:t_up:. Gee time flies.

[see weed]

Craigs have downgraded it to a sell today
Morningstar downgraded it 8 weeks ago, normally I do the opposite. Craigs have not picked it in their Stocktastic game and as Beagle above has said, presumptuous. I will do the opposite:). Ps where is Eval these days? Still in NY?:t_up: