AIR - Air NZ.

[Fatboyj]

I'm tempted to get air for the juicy dividends and a special is icing. Price falling to 3.30 might be worth a punt.

I know there's no way of knowing if another special will be paid, but what's the likelihood this year for a special, what no. out of 10?

[Beagle]

I'm tempted to get air for the juicy dividends and a special is icing. Price falling to 3.30 might be worth a punt.

I know there's no way of knowing if another special will be paid, but what's the likelihood this year for a special, what no. out of 10?

0, none, nil, nothing and zilch. Their gearing is near the top of the self determined range so lets be clear, there is no point buying now if your sole reason is to get a special dividend this year. On the other hand if you are prepared to wait until 2020-2023 year this is a very very rich time when capex for the company is negligible and its tremendous free cash flow could throw up some extremely juicy specials, (yes plural). In the meantime expect normal annual dividends fully imputed of approx ~ 20 cents per annum split pretty evenly between the half and full year.

[johnluangco]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11901828

Air NZ offering $749 return airfare on their premium LA route to counter American Airlines.

[flyer]

Yes, I saw that today, may just take that up and go watch the LA Dodgers win the World Series:t_up:

[Fatboyj]

STA have a fair to LA flying via Royal Brunei for $699.

[Snow Leopard]

STA have a fair to LA flying via Royal Brunei for $699.

Royal Brunei fly neither to Auckland nor Los Angeles :confused:


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

A little presumptuous seeing as they don't know what the earnings are, I would have thought.




0, none, nil, nothing and zilch. Their gearing is near the top of the self determined range so lets be clear, there is no point buying now if your sole reason is to get a special dividend this year. On the other hand if you are prepared to wait until 2020-2023 year this is a very very rich time when capex for the company is negligible and its tremendous free cash flow could throw up some extremely juicy specials, (yes plural). In the meantime expect normal annual dividends fully imputed of approx ~ 20 cents per annum split pretty evenly between the half and full year.

A little presumptuous seeing as you don't know what the earnings will be, I would have thought.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Fatboyj]

Royal Brunei fly neither to Auckland nor Los Angeles :confused:


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

My bad, it was a one way flight to London on the STA mailer. I better buy a globe.

[dobby41]

My bad, it was a one way flight to London on the STA mailer. I better buy a globe.

And a dictionary - it is fare rather than fair. Quite different meanings, it would have to be a very good fair for $699.

[Fatboyj]

And a dictionary - it is fare rather than fair. Quite different meanings, it would have to be a very good fair for $699.

Ah you're to quick off the block. Good to know the grammer police are on the case.

[777]

Ah you're to quick off the block. Good to know the grammer police are on the case.

It is too quick off the block.. and it's grammar.


Sorry , couldn't resist.

[dobby41]

Ah you're to quick off the block. Good to know the grammer police are on the case.

Sorry but language is important.
It didn't develop the way it has just to piss people off.
I was trying to imagine what sort of fair you could have on a aeroplane. Obviously not a cheap one :confused:

[Beagle]

Some very good specials on grabaseat to Honolulu today. $633 return from Auckland. I continue to expect consolidation around the current level until we see the viability on numbers at the annual result.
The caveat is any escalation is verbal or physical hostilities over North Korea which would obviously affect all airline stocks to some degree. Holding for long term dividend yield including expected big special dividends in FY20-FY23 during their capex holiday.

[biker]

0, none, nil, nothing and zilch. Their gearing is near the top of the self determined range so lets be clear, there is no point buying now if your sole reason is to get a special dividend this year. On the other hand if you are prepared to wait until 2020-2023 year this is a very very rich time when capex for the company is negligible and its tremendous free cash flow could throw up some extremely juicy specials, (yes plural). In the meantime expect normal annual dividends fully imputed of approx ~ 20 cents per annum split pretty evenly between the half and full year.

I think you may find Capex in 2020-2023 is quite high. They will be making a decision on the replacement for the 777-200s at the end of this year. Airline capex holidays can often be short lived

[bull....]

back under 3 soon i reckon

getting there but slowly , nth korea situation wont help

[Beagle]

I think you may find Capex in 2020-2023 is quite high. They will be making a decision on the replacement for the 777-200s at the end of this year. Airline capex holidays can often be short lived Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing. Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

[couta1]

getting there but slowly , nth korea situation wont help That aside, TA indicators entering oversold territory.

[777]

Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing thereof.
Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

In my opinion biker is correct in his assessment.

[Robomo]

Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing thereof.
Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

Agree with Beagle. The 777-200's are probably good until at least 2025 (20 years old by then for the oldest) so it's likely that's when they'll start a replacement program. Plenty of time to negotiate a good deal, particularly as orders for big new planes are slowing down and both Boeing and Airbus will be keen to get confirmed orders to keep the production lines going. 8+ years lead time is not unusual for new aircraft such as the Boeing 777X and Airbus equivalent so an order from a reputable established airline like AIR works well for the manufacturer. Lots of wheeling and dealing to be done yet, so it will be a year or two yet before an order is negotiated.

[Beagle]

That aside, TA indicators entering oversold territory.

Agree...selloff of 4% looks a little overdone relative to all other airlines I follow which are generally down 1%. Welcome back mate.

[bull....]

Agree...selloff of 4% looks a little overdone relative to all other airlines I follow which are generally down 1%. Welcome back mate.

no plenty downside left , that how cyclicals blow

[winner69]

Eval conspicuous by his absence

Probably maxing out the margin account and topping up at these level ..like he did at 320

[couta1]

no plenty downside left , that how cyclicals blow Nothing to do with being cyclical atm, Geopolitical tension causing the sell off, and if war breaks out, the whole market will turn to custard, cyclical or not.

[Beagle]

no plenty downside left , that how cyclicals blow
QAN up 1 cent as I type and all the American carriers down overnight, (all those companies also cyclical airlines subject to the same geopolitical risk with North Korea that seems to be concerning some) about an average of 1% only. 4% drop by comparison for AIR in the short term looks a little overdone, just saying.

[Fatboyj]

Jumping in at $3.10. Trump - Un rhetoric will be gone over the weekend.

[mondograss]

Jumping in at $3.10. Trump - Un rhetoric will be gone over the weekend.

Possibly along with Guam?

[Hoop]

Nothing to do with being cyclical atm, Geopolitical tension causing the sell off, and if war breaks out, the whole market will turn to custard, cyclical or not.

Yes as you say there are negative factors in play against the global airline business....Couta..Cyclicals (airlines) are very sensitive to economic conditions and become volatile, so you have to add that as another factor for AIRs recent market correction too...Recent NZ data show a slowing of NZ economic growth greater than the RBNZ expected + the RBNZ fired a warning shot of a possible intervention to lower the NZ$ (markets don't like this uncertainty)...The NZ$ TWI dropping 2% in the last few days may not help the cause either..

Its not only airlines...Have you noticed the sudden emergence of cheap specials for cruise ships and peak holiday-time accomodation...It seems suddenly the holiday/travel market has gone soft..

Could be a temporary thing... but who knows...

[Beagle]

For what its worth I think the $799 special return fare to LA is just a temporary thing as American Airlines re-launch their service there in October. Normal pricing resumes tomorrow. For those that want take advantage apparently AIR are also doing a $749 fare only through Flight Centre and that deal also expires today.
AIR SP overreaction this morning was too tempting, topped up a few, (be greedy when others are fearful) Warren Buffett.

[winner69]

Jumping in at $3.10. Trump - Un rhetoric will be gone over the weekend.

Hope you got tens of thousands of them mate

[Raz]

For what its worth I think the $799 special return fare to LA is just a temporary thing as American Airlines re-launch their service there in October. Normal pricing resumes tomorrow. For those that want take advantage apparently AIR are also doing a $749 fare only through Flight Centre and that deal also expires today.
AIR SP overreaction this morning was too tempting, topped up a few, (be greedy when others are fearful) Warren Buffett.

This is on point..it was all expected...good buying to be had on the fares..especially the few school holiday tickets offered for next years april school holidays... also purchased back in after my stop loss sold off on holiday..that worked well..more good luck than management, oh well take the breaks...

As an aside, there is certainly tourism growth potential still in NZ, just needs to move away from the current Auckland centric focus..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95591722/christchurch-airport-spreads-its-wings-past-passengers-and-planes

Statistics show an international visitor who flies into Auckland will spend just 1.5 days in the South Island, compared with 7.5 days if they fly direct into Christchurch, which is why the growing China connection is so important.

[arc]

If things get too hot re NK, then we may see, fright flight, to the deep southern pacific regions. However having said that both parties involved would have to be the biggest idiots on the planet to let it get that far...

[Jantar]

....both parties involved would have to be the biggest idiots on the planet to let it get that far... They are.....

[Clints]

Do you know of two bigger idiots?

[Fatboyj]

They're waving their trouser snakes at each other. Nothing is going to come of this but people are going to be spooked and sell like AIR yesterday. Great bargains could be had this week.

[Xerof]

Eval conspicuous by his absence

He's banned - for what, I didn't see - maybe he confessed to selling AIR and got reported for printing obscenities by the fan club

:p:p

[BlackPeter]

I guess the pattern looks a bit messy - but is it just me seeing a head and shoulders pattern emerging?

9082

Discl: Don't hold, purely academical interest and quite relaxed about what the AIR SP might do from here ...

[couta1]

I guess the pattern looks a bit messy - but is it just me seeing a head and shoulders pattern emerging?

9082

Discl: Don't hold, purely academical interest and quite relaxed about what the AIR SP might do from here ... I love nursery rhymes, let's do the whole song, repeat after me, Head Shoulders Knees and Toes.

[Beagle]

He's banned - for what, I didn't see - maybe he confessed to selling AIR and got reported for printing obscenities by the fan club

:p:p


I guess the pattern looks a bit messy - but is it just me seeing a head and shoulders pattern emerging?

9082

Discl: Don't hold, purely academical interest and quite relaxed about what the AIR SP might do from here ...

LOL Thanks for the humorous remarks.

[winner69]

I love nursery rhymes, let's do the whole song, repeat after me, Head Shoulders Knees and Toes.

Knees at $2.20 ....toes at $1.70

Could happen - after all AIR is a true cyclical.

[couta1]

Knees at $2.20 ....toes at $1.70

Could happen - after all AIR is a true cyclical. Anything could happen with the nutters we've got in charge of certain countries mate, I've never been shy of taking a punt ,so all good.

[winner69]

Anything could happen with the nutters we've got in charge of certain countries mate, I've never been shy of taking a punt ,so all good.

Maybe the chart with its beautiful symmetry is forecasting such doom ahead

God sends messages in funny ways.

[Beagle]

I think BP is drawing a very long bow calling that a head and shoulders. Classic head and shoulders a while back in 2016 as can be clearly seen from the long term chart.
SP still in a clear uptrend and well above 100 day MA which is approx. $2.95. C.L. to deliver the goods on 23 August and some people who are well positioned will be head over heels, including toes, knees and shoulders :)

[Hoop]

I guess the pattern looks a bit messy - but is it just me seeing a head and shoulders pattern emerging?

Yes it is just you BP...You know there are pills available for that..:D.

But joking aside there is TA breakdown weakness atm. How long this will last who knows..We do know some medium term investors bail when their stops are triggered below the second support (3.30) and this could be the reason of the gap down last Friday.

After a 50% gain (not counting the Divy) in 4 months, a big breather (profit -taking) event should be expected ....eh.

Wait for buy signals..(turning of the tide)

Disc: have none

[see weed]

Can I release my seatbelt yet?:D Has the tide turned? Nice little gain for those who got some at 3.10c the other day.

[Beagle]

Can I release my seatbelt yet?:D Has the tide turned?

I'm expecting the captain to turn off the seat belt sign and announce clear flying conditions next Wednesday and shortly after that the lovely staff will be around to serve you with a lavish helping of refreshments :) The beauty of AIR is they are such prompt payers of their dividends so soon after the announcement, coincidence with N.Z. Govt being the major shareholder or not ?, you folks be the judge.

[Meextr]

I'm expecting the captain to turn off the seat belt sign and announce clear flying conditions next Wednesday and shortly after that the lovely staff will be around to serve you with a lavish helping of refreshments :) The beauty of AIR is they are such prompt payers of their dividends so soon after the announcement, coincidence with N.Z. Govt being the major shareholder or not ?, you folks be the judge.

Will the refreshments be champagne?

[Beagle]

Will the refreshments be champagne?

I'm expecting a steady 10 cps final dividend fully imputed as usual but you never know it could be a little higher, but I doubt it. They're trading reasonably close to the top of their fairly conservative, (for this capex intensive industry) self imposed debt ratio of 55%, (were slightly above it at the half year). The really huge specials will come in the FY20 - FY23 period when they ostensibly have a hiatus from capex. In the meantime they're coming toward the end of a fleet replacement program and are well positioned going forward with a very young fuel efficient fleet, excellent management and trading on undemanding fundamental's.
Disc: Holding long term for strong dividend yield.

[value_investor]

AIR is a well run company so I'm assuming that any extra profitability made above expectations will be made towards bringing that gearing down so the safe-haven. AIR imposed 45-55% and went outside their range from memory to 56%. That does bring up financing costs long term so I would expect it to go to gearing.

In saying that, anything above 525m would be a massive bonus considering the number of new players in the market which I expect to quieten down in the next FY and beyond.Also, there are still a number of planes to be delivered in the next three financial years which will improve operational efficiency. Nothings really guaranteed in this airline game though now is it.

[Beagle]

With the result less than a week away I have had a good look at my model this morning. As I have stated previously I think the original guidance given of $475-$525m subsequently revised to likely to exceed $525m seems very conservative given their first half profit before tax of $349m. We know that $349m in the first half included a gain of $22m on the sale of their remaining stake in Virgin so normalized their first half was $327m before tax and this against a background of ten new airline / routes being flown and an extended period when new entrants ran opening specials at unsustainable yields which significantly compromised AIR's average yield in the first half.
Second half yields have been materially stronger.

My revised forecast for the full year is $635 - $680m based on all known inputs I follow and I think their guidance all along has been extremely conservative.
At the mid point excluding the $22m Virgin gain that's $636.5m less tax at 28% = $457.5m = 40.7 cps. Apply whatever PE you like but I think the current market implied PE is a little light and I think they are set to deliver a result next Wednesday that significantly exceeds average analyst expectations, ($517m before tax average on 4traders). We will see who is wrong and who is right next week but I am happy to back my own analysis which is quite considerably different to the average analyst view.

Conclusion, I think the rally we have seen over recent months, (albeit ameliorated by the correction in recent weeks), is not overdone and the shares represent a very sound hold at the current level. Disc: I added a few more on the back of my revised forecast this morning.

Edit adding a bit of further detail to the above :-My analysis shows on average in the last three years second half profit represents 48.2% of full year profit. This year we know that second half yields have been materially stronger than first half and fuel costs have slightly undershot company expectations. On the face of it based on all known data I cannot find / see logical reasons why second half profit shouldn't match first half or at the very least go very very close which if matched would give a result of $680m inclusive of the $22m profit on Virgin sale. Their offical forecast hasn't made sense to me for many months now. Something in the low $700m's is not completely out of the question in my opinion. Maybe I am too optimistic / been affected by aviation fuel fumes LOL, we'll see next week.

A reminder that this is the so called "competition" AIR are up against in the regions https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/95723253/jetstar-flight-delayed-seven-hours-after-pilot-called-in-sick Any wonder Jetstar trimmed back their flight schedules over winter due to lack of customer demand ?

[stoploss]

Beagle , don't they have to do a profit upgrade / downgrade to the NZX if they are going to over/under deliver on Directors forecasts by more than 10 % , not sure of the amounts ... however if they were going to hit the top end here maybe an upgrade was warranted ?
DISC : Holding

[Beagle]

Fair question mate and one someone else asked me by PM. I think the field is pretty wide open when you simply say as per their most recent guidance that profit before tax is likely to exceed $525m. They're not saying by how much and their "get out of jail free card" I suppose is that in regard to the aviation industry profit is hard to predict.
Maybe the aviation fumes did get to me the other day and I am way too optimistic LOL

[stoploss]

Fair question mate and one someone else asked me by PM. I think the field is pretty wide open when you simply say as per their most recent guidance that profit before tax is likely to exceed $525m. They're not saying by how much and their "get out of jail free card" I suppose is that in regard to the aviation industry profit is hard to predict.
Maybe the aviation fumes did get to me the other day and I am way too optimistic LOL

I'm more than happy for you to be optimistic :)

[winner69]

Beagle - reckon you a bit optimistic seeing there was only a month or two before year end when they said 525m ....

.... but one thing for sure is that all the inputs you probably have used in your model will roll over into F18. Think you just ahead of the curve.

So maybe $700m for F18 as starters

[Beagle]

Beagle - reckon you a bit optimistic seeing there was only a month or two before year end when they said 525m ....

.... but one thing for sure is that all the inputs you probably have used in your model will roll over into F18. Think you just ahead of the curve.

So maybe $700m for F18 as starters

Time will tell.Certainly happy with $700m as a starting point for FY 18 seeing as yields were so soft for the first half of FY17 but I am confident enough of $630 - $680m this year to put my name to it this morning and put my money where my mouth is buying more as well. Lets see how we go next week mate.

[couta1]

Time will tell.Certainly happy with $700m as a starting point for FY 18 seeing as yields were so soft for the first half of FY17 but I am confident enough of $630 - $680m this year to put my name to it this morning and put my money where my mouth is buying more as well. Lets see how we go next week mate. Nice ramp Mr Beagle, seems to have done the trick.:D PS-Bolly Bands on the squeeze.

[winner69]

Nice ramp Mr Beagle, seems to have done the trick.:D PS-Bolly Bands on the squeeze.

That's good isn't it ..... break upwards?

[couta1]

That's good isn't it ..... break upwards? Mum's the word.

[see weed]

couta1, is that you at 3.34?;)

[Beagle]

couta1, is that you at 3.34?;)

Perhaps some institution seems to think the hound might be barking up the right tree ? Been a bit quiet in this thread lately so I reckon we were overdue for a little positivity.

[couta1]

couta1, is that you at 3.34?;) HaHa, I was just looking at that bid thinking I should have that many at least, but Mr Beagle is trying to convince me to be more conservative these days. PS-Any normal Friday weakness may cause me to let the dark side break out.

[Fatboyj]

Eval back in town with Vegas winnings?

I bought some of these at that nice dip recently and with the AGM next week is there any way to follow this online? Will Sir John be present to be eye candy and shmoose as he only knows how?

[sb9]

Eval back in town with Vegas winnings?

I bought some of these at that nice dip recently and with the AGM next week is there any way to follow this online? Will Sir John be present to be eye candy and shmoose as he only knows how?

Lol...EOY results next week and ASM is not until late Sep and Sir John comes on board eff 1st Sep. So I guess he'll be present at ASM.

[Beagle]

Anecdotal evidence that the new financial year is off to a flying start.
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=253853&cat=976&fm=newsmain%2cnarts

[Meextr]

Sir Johnny was on TV last night saying he was having two weeks holiday so he won't be there. I was expecting him to mention his new job on the 1st but he didn't.

[Beagle]

AIR annual meeting is on 28 September at 2.00 p.m. at the ASB waterfront theatre 138 Halsey Street Auckland. The hound will be there to thank C.L. and the directors for their hard work in achieving late $600m's to early $700m's profit before tax. The salmon sandwich's were brilliant and very fresh last time.

[Meextr]

AIR annual meeting is on 28 September at 2.00 p.m. at the ASB waterfront theatre 138 Halsey Street Auckland. The hound will be there to thank C.L. and the directors for their hard work in achieving late $600m's to early $700m's profit before tax. The salmon sandwich's were brilliant and very fresh last time.

I just hope you have plenty of leg room.

[Snow Leopard]

AIR annual meeting is on 28 September at 2.00 p.m. at the ASB waterfront theatre 138 Halsey Street Auckland. The hound will be there to thank C.L. and the directors for their hard work in achieving late $600m's to early $700m's profit before tax. The salmon sandwich's were brilliant and very fresh last time.

Whilst I regard that NPBT range has somewhat dubious I am interested in those sandwiches!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Any food has a very short lifespan when I am around

[Fatboyj]

All this fog delay have much of an effect on the bottom line?

[Investor]

All this fog delay have much of an effect on the bottom line?

Of course not

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263775.pdf

Good solid numbers for July with good demand and load factors and RASK, (Revenue per available seat kilometer) up circa 3%.
Moderate and disciplined expansion of various flight services all looks good.

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263775.pdf

Good solid numbers for July with good demand and load factors and RASK, (Revenue per available seat kilometer) up circa 3%.
Moderate and disciplined expansion of various flight services all looks good. Looks solid along with the Summer seat increase outlook.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263775.pdf

Good solid numbers for July with good demand and load factors and RASK, (Revenue per available seat kilometer) up circa 3%.
Moderate and disciplined expansion of various flight services all looks good.

That's more than solid

Short haul revenues up 12% is (whatever word you want to use) is what matters though long haul revenues down 2% a bit week

A good start to making $750m in FY18 ..seeing all the money is made in short haul (greed monopolistic bastards)

[stoploss]

Looks solid along with the Summer seat increase outlook.

Did I miss something are you back in over $3-00 ?

[couta1]

Did I miss something are you back in over $3-00 ? Yep in for the divvy, waited to see what happened after it went to $3.10 last Friday and after it bounced back to $3.25 quickly, I got back in.

[Beagle]

That's more than solid

Short haul revenues up 12% is (whatever word you want to use) is what matters though long haul revenues down 2% a bit week

A good start to making $750m in FY18 ..seeing all the money is made in short haul (greed monopolistic bastards)


Yep in for the divvy, waited to see what happened after it went to $3.10 last Friday and after it bounced back to $3.25 quickly, I got back in.

LOL Winner let's stick with $700m before tax for FY18 for now :)
Its great to have you back on board Couta1 and I can just see you from my cheap economy seat and it would appear you are well positioned right up the front of the aircraft :)

Disc: This Beagle likes a well diversified range of different food bowls

[Fatboyj]

Wow, after all the posts you've made since I started reading this thread its like a christmas miracle.

Was that your order the other day for 250k shares?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

[RTM]

All this fog delay have much of an effect on the bottom line?

Well...they should save on fuel...and when they do take off...the planes will be full.

[couta1]

Wow, after all the posts you've made since I started reading this thread its like a christmas miracle.

Was that your order the other day for 250k shares?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU I don't put share numbers or dollar values on here any more, I just use the clothing size system instead. My current holding is an XOS size as opposed to my former holding which was XXXOS.

[QOH]

Yep in for the divvy, waited to see what happened after it went to $3.10 last Friday and after it bounced back to $3.25 quickly, I got back in.

Wow after all the downramping you've done on AIR over the last six months or so, you're buying at over $3. That is a huge amount of humble pie to eat.

[Fatboyj]

XOS sounds like a lot. I'm guessing my 5k purchase is an S or a size under.

I'm new to share dealing, can I ask will you basically collect the dividend then sell the shares on or hang on for the next dividend/capital gain?

I did buy partly in hope another special was going to be paid but i now know thats not happening. From all the positiveness on this thread the shares are locked away and I'm here for the long haul flight to London.

Economy class now, first class in the future :)

[couta1]

Wow after all the downramping you've done on AIR over the last six months or so, you're buying at over $3. That is a huge amount of humble pie to eat. Don't mind humble pie if it leads to profit, you can't change the past. PS-Id describe my posts as cautious rather than down ramping as I genuinely felt the stock was too expensive.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263775.pdf

Good solid numbers for July with good demand and load factors and RASK, (Revenue per available seat kilometer) up circa 3%.
Moderate and disciplined expansion of various flight services all looks good.

They were stunning Beagle

If this rate of revebue increases throughout F18 that'll be $200m plus more than last year

[tipsy]

lol, next BP will be investing in crypto. :)

[Beagle]

They were stunning Beagle

If this rate of revebue increases throughout F18 that'll be $200m plus more than last year

I'm glad you're pleased and hope you're on board too mate. I expect more good solid RASK gains for the foreseeable future as we lap the first half period last year when ten new entrants depressed yields with unsustainable opening specials that ran for months on end. Interestingly average analyst forecast for FY18 is indeed higher than FY17 by 7%. Looking forward to Wednesday. Market obviously pleased with July stat's as shares are up against a 4.3% average decline in the four U.S. Carriers I follow overnight. Augers very well for AIR SP next week if the U.S. market stabilizes.

[stoploss]

Got to love the Sharetrader Forum .
There used to be a guy on here Roger , had a falling out with the lovely Lady Norah from Summerset .Subsequently was reincarnated as a canine and has since become the biggest supporter . Rumour has it - possibly to be used as the poster boy for the next development .
Then there was Couta out of AIR @ $ 2.30 and anything above was overvalued .....Anything over $ 3.00 we were all maniacs !!!! too many posts to go over . But I'm thinking this is a bit like a Merc Couta you think its not worth more than 100 K , but decided as the dealer gave you a Full tank of Gas free you would put a new one in the garage at 150 K .
Thats all part of trading/investing as the facts change you have to change your strategy . I fully respect that , just hope not too many posters missed out on the Circa $ 1.00 Capital gain and a divvy or 2 along the way .
Gee if I could only work out what moosie,or BFG was posting under now it would be good to see if he is back in Snaak ....
I might even look up RAK is doing these days scene of my biggest loss ......
PS: On second thoughts F RAK.
PPS: Welcome back on board Couta1, hopefully the Beagle can convince you to join us for a longer haul sector , not a hop Wgtn-Blenheim.

[Beagle]

To be fair, its is rumored a certain poster took an extremely dogged to dogmatically insisting that SUM company amended its restricted persons trading policy so some good for all came from the vigorous barking and until their was a change of director so the rumor goes a certain hound stayed in his kennel.

[stoploss]

To be fair, its is rumored a certain poster took an extremely dogged to dogmatically insisting that SUM company amended its restricted persons trading policy so some good for all came from the vigorous barking and until their was a change of director so the rumor goes a certain hound stayed in his kennel.

Yes well done that poster . ( just a little light hearted Friday afternoon banter )

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263783.pdf

Vast majority of FY18 consumption hedged using Brent collars at around the current level. Good pragmatic risk management in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

lol, next BP will be investing in crypto. :)

who knows ... I might - as soon as there is a cryptocurrency with underlying value :); - but this is for another thread ....

[Fatboyj]

Wouldn't be surprised if the members on this forum were the 2nd largest shareholders after the government. AIR NZ charter plane to Fiji! Beagle pilot, Couta on drinks service. And if Eval ever turns up, the job of tour leader is his.

[Meextr]

Wouldn't be surprised if the members on this forum were the 2nd largest shareholders after the government. AIR NZ charter plane to Fiji! Beagle pilot, Couta on drinks service. And if Eval ever turns up, the job of tour leader is his.

and when is the government going to start disposing of their shares? Chances may be slim but I think its a question of when not if.

[777]

and when is the government going to start disposing of their shares? Chances may be slim but I think its a question of when not if.

It will never happen.

[Snow Leopard]

Nice numbers, almost looking good :p.

You got to feel sorry for the fuel hedging department though, they are busy as with those collars, swaps and puts.

And on a lighter note got an interesting piece of research which managed to confuse Qantas with Air New Zealand, or vice versa. I am convinced some one did it deliberately.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[johnluangco]

Does anyone know which version of the a320/a321 neo air New Zealand ordered?

Looks like the Pratt & Whitney supplied engines are still causing disruption to airlines who use them

http://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/indigo-grounds-13-planes-after-engine-issues-report/articleshow/60116613.cms

[Joshuatree]

airline sector still in good cycle according to these figs ,in Australasia.
Sydney Airport Traffic Performance July 2017 (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3617403/)
AIA June 2017 - Monthly Traffic Update (https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIA/announcements/304397)

[weasel]

Does anyone know which version of the a320/a321 neo air New Zealand ordered?

Looks like the Pratt & Whitney supplied engines are still causing disruption to airlines who use them

http://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/indigo-grounds-13-planes-after-engine-issues-report/articleshow/60116613.cms

Pratt & Whitney
Source: http://www.utc.com/News/PW/Pages/Air-New-Zealand-Selects-Pratt-Whitney-PurePower-Engines-for-A320neo-Family-Air.aspx

[johnluangco]

Pratt & Whitney
Source: http://www.utc.com/News/PW/Pages/Air-New-Zealand-Selects-Pratt-Whitney-PurePower-Engines-for-A320neo-Family-Air.aspx

Ah... cheers hopefully engine issues are sorted by next year.

[Beagle]

Ah... cheers hopefully engine issues are sorted by next year.

Yes...teething problems with new technology engines are not uncommon and it would seem that P & W have worked on resolutions
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2016/06/12/initial-service-problems-of-new-engine-now-over-assures-pratt/
From memory I think AIR have pushed their A320 / A321 scheduled deliveries later.
Edit - Yes, see pages 61 and 62 of Investor day briefing https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/259318.pdf
Says the push of 12 months was for newer interiors but perhaps it could be for the newer version of the engine too ?
Anyway, first NEO A320 not due until July 18 and first NEO powered A321 not due until Sept 18. Hopefully Pratt and Whitney have any further technical issues sorted out before then.

[emveha]

Yes...teething problems with new technology engines are not uncommon and it would seem that P & W have worked on resolutions
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2016/06/12/initial-service-problems-of-new-engine-now-over-assures-pratt/

That was last year; one year on the problems persist. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2017/04/12/troubles-persist-revolutionary-gtf-engine-vital-new-tech-jets/

Quantas delayed their engine choice and finally settled for the CFM ones.

[winner69]

AIR bonds at 4.0% at the moment (before tax)

AiR dividend yield currently about 8.0% (before tax)

Some would say a 4% equity risk premium for an airline is pretty thin .....hmmm



Interestingly PWC use an overall market risk premium of 7.5%

[Beagle]

That was last year; one year on the problems persist. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2017/04/12/troubles-persist-revolutionary-gtf-engine-vital-new-tech-jets/

Quantas delayed their engine choice and finally settled for the CFM ones.

I am sure AIR's top engineers will be keeping well abreast of the very latest information.


AIR bonds at 4.0% at the moment (before tax)

AiR dividend yield currently about 8.0% (before tax)

Some would say a 4% equity risk premium for an airline is pretty thin .....hmmm

Interestingly PWC use an overall market risk premium of 7.5%

Including approx 75 cents per share in specials over FY20-FY23 I am forecasting approx $1.75 in fully imputed dividends over the next five years, (gross $2.43) and average gross dividend yield 14.3%. I am more than happy to hold over that timeframe for that projected return.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-pal-drops-cairns-stopover-wine-tourism-guide-and-more-ng-p-206584?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%252520Last%252520Call%25253A%2525 20Weekend%252520Review%252520edition
Very, very interesting move by American Airlines. Only operating the Auckland to LA route over the summer peak to late March and leaving AIR to benefit as the sole service provider the rest of the year, (the majority of the year).

[winner69]

Jeez - when punters 'buy' the divie after tomorrow's announcement the share price will get to 350 plus

Suppose Chris will wait until the AGM to mention $650m to $700m for F18

[sb9]

Jeez - when punters 'buy' the divie after tomorrow's announcement the share price will get to 350 plus

Suppose Chris will wait until the AGM to mention $650m to $700m for F18

You're bit excited eh winner, results out on Wed 23rd not tomorrow.

[winner69]

You're bit excited eh winner, results out on Wed 23rd not tomorrow.

Excitement over Jacinda is getting to me

[Fatboyj]

Where you at the town hall yesterday?

[winner69]

Where you at the town hall yesterday?

No, just watched a bit on Facebook for a laugh

AIR should be using Jacinda in their safety videos ....about the same standards

[see weed]

Can I release my seatbelt yet?:D Has the tide turned? Nice little gain for those who got some at 3.10c the other day.
Seat belt light is off. Look at those happy buyers at $3.10c twelve days ago, and more to come:D:cool::t_up:. Here divi, divi divi. come on now.

[Fatboyj]

Seat belt light is off. Look at those happy buyers at $3.10c twelve days ago, and more to come:D:cool::t_up:. Here divi, divi divi. come on now.


Jumping in at $3.10. Trump - Un rhetoric will be gone over the weekend.

Thank you Mr Trump.

[Beagle]

The hound put his paws up for a few more at that level too. Jumped the gun a little and paid $3.15 but still wagging my tail pretty happily at this stage and looking forward to Wednesday.

[Fatboyj]

Popcorn for breakfast.

[winner69]

Popcorn for breakfast.

Champagne brunch though ....go nicely with the scallops

[winner69]

See it was more than $525m

Guidance just as good as Fletchers - both spot on

[Beagle]

Popcorn for breakfast.

I'm having egg on face for breakfast today....I'll be busy cleaning my face and fur for hours with my profit prediction the other day.
First impressions is I am disappointed with the result but it is pleasing to see they are confident regarding their outlook for FY18 for an improvement on this years result.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/264094.pdf

[suse]

I dont hold any shares in this, but at first glance across it I am quite heartened to see that they are paying a bonus to staff that dont have a bonus as part of their employment agreement. Happy well treated staff will always help towards a well performing company in my opinion. Still, the fat cats at the top get all the cream as usual I'm sure.

[TheHunter]

Agreed - slightly disappointing at first as was hoping to further exceed the $525m but promising outlook which is key. Hopefully they have absorbed costs in advance for FY17 to give them a good take off into FY18.

Anyone care to share their share price expectations given the update?

[winner69]

quote - the airline is aiming to improve upon 2017 earnings.

On current forecasting record that means operating earnings of $535m - 2nd best in history

[winner69]

Result underwhelming to say the least

So that's the excitment gone for a few more months

At least another cent on the divie

[Beagle]

They do talk about seeing FY17 as being a sustainable earnings base for future growth so obviously they see this second highest profit in the airlines 77 year history as something that's buildable upon, sort of a low in the cycle due to the intensity of competition...On a real quick look it looks like this is pretty much bang on the money with average analyst expectations and average analyst expectations for FY18 are for ~ $550m before tax.

I think I got caught with the adverse FX movement which cost them ~ $100m this year. I see they're really well hedged on oil and FX going into FY18.

As you say Winner at least they tossed us a small bone with an increase in the final divvy. 21 cps fully imputed gives 29.17 cps gross which is an 8.58% gross yield plus expected specials in due course. Very pleased to see their gearing at 51.8%, (down from 55.9% at the half year point) coming down towards the middle of their 45-55% range. Looking forward to special dividends starting potentially in FY20.

We should be very pleased with a total shareholder return this year of 88% and the second highest profit in 77 years despite 10 new carriers entering the market.
Demonstrates the strength of their business model in a challenging competitor environment.

[sb9]

Result underwhelming to say the least

So that's the excitment gone for a few more months

At least another cent on the divie

Don't beat yourself winner, its pretty decent result overall, just that market might've got ahead of itself a little bit with airlines industry worldwide doing well.

[Leftfield]

We should be very pleased with a total shareholder return this year of 88% and the second highest profit in 77 years despite 10 new carriers entering the market. Demonstrates the strength of their business model in a challenging competitor environment.

Well said..... good luck to holders.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/65fd50a7/first-cut-air-new-zealand-annual-earnings-fall-21-in-competitive-market-hikes-dividend.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FIRST%20CUT%20Air%20New%20Zealand%20a nnual%20earnings%20fall%2021%20in%20competitive%20 market%20hikes%20dividend&utm_content=FIRST%20CUT%20Air%20New%20Zealand%20an nual%20earnings%20fall%2021%20in%20competitive%20m arket%20hikes%20dividend+CID_023a6735bf0146b542d7b 2792062af66&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle65fd50a7first-cut-air-new-zealand-annual-earnings-fall-21-in-competitive-market-hikes-dividendhtml

Extract - "This year Air New Zealand faced an unprecedented increase in the level of competition from some of the world’s largest airlines and effectively rose to the challenge," said chief executive Christopher Luxon.*

[dobby41]

Extract - "This year Air New Zealand faced an unprecedented increase in the level of competition from some of the world’s largest airlines and effectively rose to the challenge," said chief executive Christopher Luxon.*

He would say that though - wouldn't he.

[Beagle]

He would say that though - wouldn't he.

I think its fair comment. Fact is there was quite a dramatic change in the competitive environment between 2016 and 2017.
Some CEO's talk "creative corporate speak", Luxon isn't one of them in my opinion.

[bull....]

that spike lower the other week was good buying in hindsight

[blackcap]

Anecdotes off course, but came back on NZ281 from Singapore a few week ago and to my pleasant surprise plenty of empty seats which afforded my partner and I the skycouch. She slept a lot of the journey, I hassled other passengers and did some exercise. But again 2 trips now, 1 to Shanghai and 1 from Singapore where they are not selling out the plane. Probably not a concern but is this the extra competition eating away? Empty seats are a worry for an airliner as costs tend to be pretty fixed per flight and every extra seat sold is pretty much profit on top is it not.

[RTM]

Agreed - slightly disappointing at first as was hoping to further exceed the $525m but promising outlook which is key. Hopefully they have absorbed costs in advance for FY17 to give them a good take off into FY18.

Anyone care to share their share price expectations given the update?

My simplisitic way of looking at it.
21 cents Divi per year:
@ $3.40 = 6.2%
@ $3.00 = 7%
@ $2.5 = 8.4 %
Yes...I know the imputation thing comes in as well.
Wouldn't be surprised to see it head down somewhere between $2.5 and $3.00.



@

[Beagle]

Concluding remarks by Chris Luxon on the call "We are very proud of the results and onwards and upwards"
General tone of the conference call was very positive for FY18.
Shares trade cum a 11 cent divvy at $3.30 at time of posting. Looking ahead on an theoretical ex divvy price of ($3.30 - $0.11) = $3.19 and assuming a 22 cent fully imputed dividend for FY18 22/0.72 = 30.55 cps gross the shares trade on a prospective yield of 30.55 / 319 = 9.58% plus specials in due course as their capex program draws to its conclusion. Happy to hold long term for that sort of attractive yield and happy that management are doing a good job.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/feb99af9/update-air-new-zealand-annual-earnings-fall-21-in-competitive-market-hikes-dividend.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UPDATE%20Air%20New%20Zealand%20annual %20earnings%20fall%2021%20in%20competitive%20marke t%20hikes%20dividend&utm_content=UPDATE%20Air%20New%20Zealand%20annual% 20earnings%20fall%2021%20in%20competitive%20market %20hikes%20dividend+CID_ace6609186f7f69a03ce48432b 519509&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefeb99af9update-air-new-zealand-annual-earnings-fall-21-in-competitive-market-hikes-dividendhtml

Currently trading on a trailing PE of 10, (ten year average is 11) and outlook is positive.

[stoploss]

Concluding remarks by Chris Luxon on the call "We are very proud of the results and onwards and upwards"
General tone of the conference call was very positive for FY18.
Shares trade cum a 11 cent divvy at $3.30 at time of posting. Looking ahead on an theoretical ex divvy price of ($3.30 - $0.11) = $3.19 and assuming a 22 cent fully imputed dividend for FY18 22/0.72 = 30.55 cps gross the shares trade on a prospective yield of 30.55 / 319 = 9.58% plus specials in due course as their capex program draws to its conclusion. Happy to hold long term for that sort of attractive yield and happy that management are doing a good job.

Regarding my optimistic forecast last week, after egg on face for breakfast I am looking forward to humble pie for lunch and dinner lol
Roger don't beat yourself up over a bit of "overexuberance" . You have had the call right around solid earnings and the overall trend .

[kelfy]

Hi, I got a stupid newbie question. If I buy it now can I get the dividend on the paid day at 18 Sep ?

[TheHunter]

Hi, I got a stupid newbie question. If I buy it now can I get the dividend on the paid day at 18 Sep ?

Yes you can :) - if you are holding shares on the record date you receive the dividend.

[stoploss]

Hi, I got a stupid newbie question. If I buy it now can I get the dividend on the paid day at 18 Sep ?



"Based on the airline's strong financial position, future capital commitments


and improving trading environment, the Board felt it appropriate to increase


the dividend," says Mr Carter. The final dividend will be paid on 18


September 2017 to investors on record at the close of business on 8 September


2017.

[Raz]

hi from Portland ...should not have looked at that eclipse...if I could smooth my earnings that is the result I would secure election year with some provisions to unwind to be ahead into 2018 although they would never do that would they...onward and upward🤔

[Hoop]

Hi, I got a stupid newbie question. If I buy it now can I get the dividend on the paid day at 18 Sep ?

Yes you can :) - if you are holding shares on the record date you receive the dividend.

I would like to clarify re:- ex dividend dates.

You have to be on the shareholder record by the ex-date (closing 8th Sept)...It is T=2days now but to be safe use T=3days... therefore to get the dividend allow 3 days before the 8th Sept to buy your shares....
You will see next to the shareprice whether it is CD (cum Dividend) or XD (excluding Dividend [ex-dividend])..

You also may want to see the company announcements and up coming dividends with their ex dividend dates on the NZX webpage...THe NZX don't make it easy for investors and it can be a bitch finding that webpage so click on this link (https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX) and then bookmark it for future use

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/36865b1b/humanoid-robots-and-chatbots-won-t-replace-people-air-nz-ceo-says.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Humanoid%20robots%20and%20chatbots%20 wont%20replace%20people%20Air%20NZ%20CEO%20says&utm_content=Humanoid%20robots%20and%20chatbots%20w ont%20replace%20people%20Air%20NZ%20CEO%20says+CID _7b3e1f5474b1b3a7cde823b9756106ff&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle36865b1bhumano id-robots-and-chatbots-won-t-replace-people-air-nz-ceo-sayshtml

Excellent sharechat article regarding advanced technology

[QOH]

Did the Air Nz staff get their last bonus sixmonths or a year ago.?
If it's every six months that's getting frequent, hope they don't learn to expect it. I'd like to see it paid to them in shares.

[stoploss]

Did the Air Nz staff get their last bonus sixmonths or a year ago.?
If it's every six months that's getting frequent, hope they don't learn to expect it. I'd like to see it paid to them in shares.

Paying them is shares does not always work , senior management have been on that deal for a while and as we saw ( sore ) last year as soon as they could they just turfed them out the door ......
This might have spooked a few investors out of the stock at poor levels with all the "insider" selling going on . If they are not going to be locked in , better to just pay them cash imo.

[Snow Leopard]

I'm having egg on face for breakfast today....I'll be busy cleaning my face and fur for hours with my profit prediction the other day.
First impressions is I am disappointed with the result but it is pleasing to see they are confident regarding their outlook for FY18 for an improvement on this years result.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/264094.pdf

Yes, you made "A Dog's Breakfast (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dog's%20breakfast)" of that all right.

And that is despite your local Tiger suggesting that $526M (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=668807&viewfull=1#post668807) (oh so very close ;)) might be more realistic.

You can not make an omelette without breaking eggs, but you may wish to reconsider some of the other future predictions you are making and whether they are benefiting from 'hound over-exuberance'.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

No question I got caught with my pants (fur ?) down with that over exuberance. Didn't work the FX right. All good...not ashamed to admit I got this one wrong and I shall eat a healthy dose of humble pie tonight. No tigers, cats or sheep shall be harmed in the making of that pie :)

But PT my furry friend, you did suggest in that post not to pay anywhere near $3 for an AIR share so anyone who took that advice could be very cross with you !
No good being right with the profit projection if you can't work out what PE the stock should be trading on ! Have you made a dog's breakfast of your recommendation yourself
you do not want to paying anywhere near $3 a pop for this. Paper Tiger 2 June 2017

Edit - SP looks like closing the day up a bit so it would appear one is better to follow a bullish hound than a bearish Tiger... Shall I save a helping of tonight's humble pie to share with you :p

[Fatboyj]

Yes our beagle is more a pug today. The popcorn is back in the freezer and saved for another day.
No champagne brunch just a good ol Dilma and shortbread.

But I for one appreciate the beagle over-exuberance, and wouldn't have got into AIR at the dip if not for the happy yelps of our four legged friend. Of course good timing and DYOR > smiley doggy face, but this would have been a dire boring thread otherwise.

There there doggy who's a good boy.

[Beagle]

Roger don't beat yourself up over a bit of "overexuberance" . You have had the call right around solid earnings and the overall trend .


Yes our beagle is more a pug today. The popcorn is back in the freezer and saved for another day.
No champagne brunch just a good ol Dilma and shortbread.

But I for one appreciate the beagle over-exuberance, and wouldn't have got into AIR at the dip if not for the happy yelps of our four legged friend. Of course good timing and DYOR > smiley doggy face, but this would have been a dire boring thread otherwise.

There there doggy who's a good boy.

Thanks...I take this one on the snout and definitely got covered in something today, (not glory that's for sure lol) never mind, live to bark happily another day :)
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=happy+beagle&&view=detail&mid=8D9830B246DB2BE9BB1F8D9830B246DB2BE9BB1F&FORM=VRDGAR

Disc: Little harm was incurred in the over exuberance, SP actually ended up 1 cent on the day. The hound is still happy to chew on this bone long term.

[777]

Did the Air Nz staff get their last bonus sixmonths or a year ago.?
If it's every six months that's getting frequent, hope they don't learn to expect it. I'd like to see it paid to them in shares.

12 months ago.

[Meextr]

Yes you can :) - if you are holding shares on the record date you receive the dividend.

Another newbie here. Divi is paid to anyone holding shares on the record date of 08/09/17 from what date is it safe to sell shares and not lose the dividend?

[777]

The day they are quoted as ex dividend.

[RGR367]

Thanks...............

Disc: Little harm was incurred in the over exuberance, SP actually ended up 1 cent on the day. The hound is still happy to chew on this bone long term.

Sure glad you cannot be sued or rather leashed for that over exuberance of yours :D But still looking forward to your next analysis/paralysis bark on this one soon. TY too.

[value_investor]

A few notes to take from the annual presentation

- Gearing has dropped from the 1H result from 56% back into the safe range to 52% (AIRs self imposed range is 45-55%). Still early days to ramping up dividends but progress is being made. 11c is a good middle ground imo.

- We are reaching near the back end of the CAPEX spend. Still some efficiency gains to be had though. Notable two more dreamliners coming next year. This means that oil prices going up will favour AIR as it will choke out those operators with older fleets. While AIR can still sustain the same prices on fares.

- Capacity and load factors are improving in AIRs favour and the domestic market is starting to soften a bit as well. More flights locally and short haul to the Pacific are pleasing signs that the CAPEX spend will pay dividends (pun intended) in the future.

- Normally there is an outlook with estimate on the profit band but there is nothing given this time around. Just saying that management are confident of passing this result here.

I'm happy with my 11c dividend and will hold onto it.

[Snow Leopard]

...
But PT my furry friend, you did suggest in that post not to pay anywhere near $3 for an AIR share so anyone who took that advice could be very cross with you !
No good being right with the profit projection if you can't work out what PE the stock should be trading on ! Have you made a dog's breakfast of your recommendation yourself

Edit - SP looks like closing the day up a bit so it would appear one is better to follow a bullish hound than a bearish Tiger... Shall I save a helping of tonight's humble pie to share with you :p

$2.871 - that is my forward valuation for 30-Jun-2018 based on todays information. Definitely you should not be paying a cent more.
I believe this a slight increase on my last valuation.
So it should be on a P/E ratio of about 8.5. That sounds right when there is a lot more downside risk than upside reward looking into the distance.

As for the price it is currently trading at, markets are irrational, and while I do not invest in airlines I may have made a lot of money off them in recent times.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Meextr]

Removed as off topic

[Beagle]

$2.871 - that is my forward valuation for 30-Jun-2018 based on todays information. Definitely you should not be paying a cent more.
I believe this a slight increase on my last valuation.
So it should be on a P/E ratio of about 8.5. That sounds right when there is a lot more downside risk than upside reward looking into the distance.

As for the price it is currently trading at, markets are irrational, and while I do not invest in airlines I may have made a lot of money off them in recent times.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I listened into the conference call yesterday and I can assure you that's not how senior management see it. I think your bias against airlines and AIR is "plane" for all to see from the outset of this thread. If you took your blinkers off you might see a well managed company focused on tight cost control and disciplined growth.
Just as well you're doing okay with your consulting work...

[dobby41]

I listened into the conference call yesterday and I can assure you that's not how senior management see it. I think your bias against airlines and AIR is "plane" for all to see from the outset of this thread. If you took your blinkers off you might see a well managed company focused on tight cost control and disciplined growth.
Just as well you're doing okay with your consulting work...

Of course management don't see it that way.
I'm not suggesting that either view is right but because management see things one way doesn't make it right - plenty of examples where management have been wrong.

Not sure who has the better blinkers here.

[Beagle]

Of course management don't see it that way.
I'm not suggesting that either view is right but because management see things one way doesn't make it right - plenty of examples where management have been wrong.

Not sure who has the better blinkers here.

Chris Luxon has built a very good and reliable track record over several years of being a straight shooter and calling it as it is. His forward looking comments have proved far more reliable than the professional analysts and certainly far more reliable than non professional commentators like some on here who have had a consistent bias against AIR since right at the start of this thread 13 years ago. If you have a look at the 2017 stocktastic share competition you will see the track record of the poster in question, a bottom quartile performance this year and from memory this has been the case for several years now.
Conclusion - When one selects which blinkers to wear, go for the soft furry ones issued by AIR's senior management as they have the record of being the most reliably comfortable to wear and certainly a far more rewarding experience :) http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/eadbe1fc/nz-tourism-boom-keeping-air-nz-auckland-airport-in-clover.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20tourism%20boom%20keeping%20Air%2 0NZ%20Auckland%20Airport%20in%20clover&utm_content=NZ%20tourism%20boom%20keeping%20Air%20 NZ%20Auckland%20Airport%20in%20clover+CID_2be82898 66dbdc470744b4dd302ffb19&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleeadbe1fcnz-tourism-boom-keeping-air-nz-auckland-airport-in-cloverhtml

[Snow Leopard]

...If you have a look at the 2017 stocktastic share competition you will see the track record of the poster in question, a bottom quartile performance this year and from memory this has been the case for several years now. ...

I think we are all in awe of the high intellectual levels you are able to achieve.
Something the rest of us are unable to match.

PT

[sb9]

Nice price action today, must be due to the fact that Morningstar recommended to "reduce" and market thinks that's good sign to buy...:p

[Beagle]

Nice price action today, must be due to the fact that Morningstar recommended to "reduce" and market thinks that's good sign to buy...:p

LOL classic. I think the market is taking its cue for yesterday's upbeat conference call. Luxon has the runs on the board and interestingly if you strip out $112m foreign exchange gains from the 2016 result the 2017 result looks stunning considering the tsunami of new competition and moderately higher oil price.
2017 will go down as the year AIR proved the strong resilience of their business model and many of the 10 new competitors have now retrenched their capacity.
Luxon's concluding remarks from the call "onward and upward" says it all.
Disc: This post was made using carbon friendly furry blinkers provided by AIR senior management but the hound uses his own furry ears to muffle the occasional negativity. Happy to follow my nose with this one. Now we're over $3.50 maybe the exuberance was warranted after all...just got the year wrong for the earlier forecast, should have read FY18 :D

[Fatboyj]

This is what should have happened yesterday. I'll finish that popcorn off and get some bubbly cooling. Even had 2nd thoughts when someone posted it could head down to the 2.50 - 3.00 level. Lucky we have a guard dog to see those boohoos off. Even the tiger is purring like a little kitty.

[Beagle]

This is what should have happened yesterday. I'll finish that popcorn off and get some bubbly cooling. Even had 2nd thoughts when someone posted it could head down to the 2.50 - 3.00 level. Lucky we have a guard dog to see those boohoos off. Even the tiger is purring like a little kitty.

:lol: :lol: Woof woof.

[see weed]

:lol: :lol: Woof woof.
Thanks for all your input Beagle and others over the last year or so:t_up:.

[kelfy]

Morningstar sucks!!!! I can't understand why they always make comment from the opposite.

[see weed]

Morningstar sucks!!!! I can't understand why they always make comment from the opposite.
Five years ago they said it was worth $1.55c. so jumped in at $1.15c and rode it all the way down to about 85c buying more and more on the way down. That went on for about 6mths to a year, then it went up and was happy to get out at about $1.35c. Then it went to $3:confused:

[value_investor]

A bit of a head scratcher on the gains today based on the earnings announcement. Maybe we'll see it come down a bit closer to $3 when the dividend period is over.

Exciting times ahead..

[Marilyn Munroe]

There is an underarm bowler on the internet speculating Cullen Airlines will fly to Nu Yawk.

Here is a link;

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2017/08/25/air-nz-might-preempt-qantas-push-new-york-non-stops/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. More on this including speculation Cullen Airlines will order a new aircraft type for this route;

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-qantas-strategy-idUSKCN1B41QY?il=0

[Snow Leopard]

Of course Qantas could do Oz to New York via Auckland.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Great result from Qantas

Profits down about the %age as AIR and 2nd best profit on record ......and a share buy back to top it off

Performance like that and being Australian on the ASX no wonder trades at higher multiples than AIR

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11910906

Passengers can "look forward" to a whopping 20 hours ensconced in cattle class in the future...

They could call this flight the DVT special !

[kelfy]

Now I understand how to read them. All we need is to act opposite from Morningstar. When they say buy, you sell.

[Fatboyj]

They still have a valuation of $2.60 for Warehouse.

[value_investor]

The NZ instos have not liked AIR for a very long time and if you follow them, the best thing to do for AIR is to do the opposite of what they say.

[Fatboyj]

Thank you Jetstar for being so useless. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11913894

Disc: Bad experience with Jetstar a few years back, will never fly with them again.

[BlackPeter]

Thank you Jetstar for being so useless. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11913894

Disc: Bad experience with Jetstar a few years back, will never fly with them again.

Just imagine how dear Air New Zealand flights would be if Jetstar would go away. If you are a traveller and have to pay for your fares yourself, thank God every morning for Jetstar instead of trashing them.

I still remember the dark times when AIR was the only player around here. It was more expensive to book a flight CHC - AKL with AIR, than doing the flight via Sydney. Long may Jetstar continue ... they are the only ones keeping AIR honest ...

[Beagle]

Interesting to see capacity contraction in the regions at a time when AIR have announced significant regional capacity expansion.
Speaks for itself in terms of customer choice which is directly related to service standards in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting to see capacity contraction in the regions at a time when AIR have announced significant regional capacity expansion.
Speaks for itself in terms of customer choice which is directly related to service standards in my opinion.

Not sure. I do fly more often with AIR than with Jetstar ... and maybe I am just lucky, but so far both carriers did bring me always in time and as promised to my chosen destinations. Couldn't find either that the seats or the sweets on AIR are better or worse than on Jetstar ...

[Onion]

Not sure. I do fly more often with AIR than with Jetstar ... and maybe I am just lucky, but so far both carriers did bring me always in time and as promised to my chosen destinations. Couldn't find either that the seats or the sweets on AIR are better or worse than on Jetstar ...

I tend to agree. I have had more delayed departures with Air NZ than with Jetstar - but both pretty reliable in my experience.

A glass of of wine in the evening courtesy of Air NZ is not matched by Jetstar.

[Beagle]

The hound is bored with playing with the "beat Jetstar up stick", the facts speak for themselves, Jetstar are retrenching capacity in the regions whilst Air New Zealand are expanding capacity and frequency. Quite obvious that the public are voting with their feet.

[Fatboyj]

TLDR; in a position to afford AirNZ prem economy and would like people to share their experience.

Slightly off topic. Anyone here lucky enough to have flown AirNZ premium economy? Worth the extra price for a long haul flight to London May next year? just did a super quick fare check and economy 1.5k prem economy 3k. One way. Wow.
3 reasons why I'm lucky enough to even think of doing this.
1. You wonderful people on this forum are making me rich.
2. AirNZ shareholder since last month, if its good enough to invest in then I got to try out the product(well I've flown AirnNZ domestically and the service is many times better then the Beagle poop that is Jetstar).
3. Sorry for the following swear, I wont say it here amongst share traders(BP fingers in ears, eyes closed, say lalalalalalala many times) its an anagram of bionic-t(that anagram is so cool) . I was going to lock in the profits later this year when it hit 5k but doing it now to book an early flight.

Only other airline I'd consider is one using an A380, their prem ec is upstairs and that would be an awesome experience.

[mondograss]

TLDR; in a position to afford AirNZ prem economy and would like people to share their experience.

Slightly off topic. Anyone here lucky enough to have flown AirNZ premium economy? Worth the extra price for a long haul flight to London May next year? just did a super quick fare check and economy 1.5k prem economy 3k. One way. Wow.
3 reasons why I'm lucky enough to even think of doing this.
1. You wonderful people on this forum are making me rich.
2. AirNZ shareholder since last month, if its good enough to invest in then I got to try out the product(well I've flown AirnNZ domestically and the service is many times better then the Beagle poop that is Jetstar).
3. Sorry for the following swear, I wont say it here amongst share traders(BP fingers in ears, eyes closed, say lalalalalalala many times) its an anagram of bionic-t(that anagram is so cool) . I was going to lock in the profits later this year when it hit 5k but doing it now to book an early flight.

Only other airline I'd consider is one using an A380, their prem ec is upstairs and that would be an awesome experience.

Yes I've flown Premium Economy and definitely think it's worth it for a long or medium haul flight.

[cyclist]

TLDR; in a position to afford AirNZ prem economy and would like people to share their experience.

Slightly off topic. Anyone here lucky enough to have flown AirNZ premium economy? Worth the extra price for a long haul flight to London May next year? just did a super quick fare check and economy 1.5k prem economy 3k. One way. Wow.
3 reasons why I'm lucky enough to even think of doing this.
1. You wonderful people on this forum are making me rich.
2. AirNZ shareholder since last month, if its good enough to invest in then I got to try out the product(well I've flown AirnNZ domestically and the service is many times better then the Beagle poop that is Jetstar).
3. Sorry for the following swear, I wont say it here amongst share traders(BP fingers in ears, eyes closed, say lalalalalalala many times) its an anagram of bionic-t(that anagram is so cool) . I was going to lock in the profits later this year when it hit 5k but doing it now to book an early flight.

Only other airline I'd consider is one using an A380, their prem ec is upstairs and that would be an awesome experience.

Well off topic, but I can see everyone having a bit of fun with this one. Start a new thread? (I have some thoughts to add).

[Fatboyj]

Thanks cyclist, sorry for the long post off topic, just a bit too energetic this morning.

Suggestion taken up and I have started a thread here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11058-Flying-premium-Class-on-AirNZ-or-A380

[Onion]

Yes I've flown Premium Economy and definitely think it's worth it for a long or medium haul flight.

I have flown premium economy (and it's nice) but I've only done it when it hasn't cost very much to upgrade or the upgrade has been thrown in free.

I am obviously a tight-ar*e but 1.5K buys a lot of flat ale, some nice restaurant meals and an accommodation upgrade while you are on hols. If I'm paying I'll take a bit of discomfort for 24 hours and save the dosh. If someone else is paying then bring on the leg-room!

[BlackPeter]

TLDR; in a position to afford AirNZ prem economy and would like people to share their experience.

Slightly off topic. Anyone here lucky enough to have flown AirNZ premium economy? Worth the extra price for a long haul flight to London May next year? just did a super quick fare check and economy 1.5k prem economy 3k. One way. Wow.
3 reasons why I'm lucky enough to even think of doing this.
1. You wonderful people on this forum are making me rich.
2. AirNZ shareholder since last month, if its good enough to invest in then I got to try out the product(well I've flown AirnNZ domestically and the service is many times better then the Beagle poop that is Jetstar).
3. Sorry for the following swear, I wont say it here amongst share traders(BP fingers in ears, eyes closed, say lalalalalalala many times) its an anagram of bionic-t(that anagram is so cool) . I was going to lock in the profits later this year when it hit 5k but doing it now to book an early flight.

Only other airline I'd consider is one using an A380, their prem ec is upstairs and that would be an awesome experience.

Hmm - you sure you want my input on this?

Yes, I did fly several times premium economy with AIR over to the US and to Europe (this is however some years ago).

You get better food, free lounge access - and more legroom. Personally do I find however the premium economy seats from Quantas better - I always found the AIR premium seats a bit too short (seat to footrest) - despite not being a tall person.

Company paid for it ... and it helps to hit the next day after the arrival from a long haul flight the ground running. However - is it worth it if you pay for it yourself? Not sure. I guess the question is - can you imagine anything else you could do with these additional $3k (return) you pay which are more worth to you than sitting for 24 hours a bit more comfortable?

BTW - not good in following instructions, but in my view a good idea to realise some of the trading profits with crypto ... better safe than sorry ;);

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/264072.pdf

[winner69]

Jeez - even Gaynor seems to have fallen in love with AIR

That 4 bucks only weeks away

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11915724

[freddagg]

Jeez - even Gaynor seems to have fallen in love with AIR

That 4 bucks only weeks away

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11915724

He has always liked AIR
I just checked back to Dec 2009 and Milford had AIR as 2.6% of their Active Growth Fund

[Beagle]

Jeez - even Gaynor seems to have fallen in love with AIR

That 4 bucks only weeks away

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11915724

Thanks for posting :) Really interesting this bit
"Iata recently released its global mid-year 2017 update, which revised its 2017 revenue passenger kilometre growth forecast from 5.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent. Iata also raised its freight tonnes growth rate from 3.3 per cent to 7.3 per cent and the industry's Ebit margin forecast from 6.6 per cent to 7.7 per cent.
The Asia-Pacific will experience the strongest RPK growth and is predicted to have a higher load factor than any other region."

Emphasis added. It seems to me that Managements robust confidence in the FY18 outlook is very well founded and I note AIR still trades cum a fully imputed final dividend of 11 cps. Happy holder.

[sb9]

Past 3.60 now...looking good

[couta1]

Past 3.60 now...looking good Yeah Nah, I like that old Bunny Walters song instead (Some will know which song I'm talking about)

[Fatboyj]

Shareholder side of things great. Heels clicked in the air(I can easily do this on the the left, no show on the right)

Customer side, sad to say appalling experience this morning. I double checked I didn't ring Jetstar.

Will go into detail if resolved tomorrow but try it for yourself, ask about the cost of sky couch to Europe for a couple. 0800 737 000.

Just a snipit I talked to 3 different people.
1st no idea transferred to long haul.
2nd quoted the wrong price, would have booked there and then but $60 per person booking fee(free online) so went online. Booked online, printed ticket, no sky couch.
3rd person went away for 15 mins and couldn't see why, then did more research and came back with another price 1k more.
Sales staff at the most basic level have got to know their product eh? Their system didn't even have the sale prices put up on the airnz website. I had to read them out of their website!!
Getting clarification tomorrow, I hope.
Ooops bit more of a snipit.

Do I have more clout being a shareholder? Can I play the (in deep voice)"I'm a bloody shareholder you know I'll raise this with Mr Luxon at the AGM on the 28th blah blah". Maybe that's a bit to jerky.

Will be an interesting day tomorrow. This to look forward to, and the fuss with NTL too is going to be fun(bought in recently)

[scamper]

flew heathrow and back in AIR's premium economy within the last four months.
Fab food and service, and space (8 seats across instead of 10). Seat length, back to footrest, could be better.
No Koru lounge thrown in. Will save up to do the same next trip.
outstrips singapore and cathay equivalents by a mile. Sadly had to fly halfway in each of these.

[Beagle]

Past 3.60 now...looking good

Dividend hounds jostling for position at the food bowl. Goes ex this Thursday I believe.

[sb9]

Dividend hounds jostling for position at the food bowl. Goes ex this Thursday I believe.

Yes, it does and looks like market is preparing for a ex-div price of around 3.50 going forward until the ASM for further guidance.

[Fatboyj]

My bad little experience I had on the last page has been resolved, its in the other thread here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11058-Flying-premium-Class-on-AirNZ-or-A380&p=682234&viewfull=1#post682234.

AirNZ has come to the party and we've had an exceptionally good outcome.

I am very impressed with their customer service and have a much higher opinion of the company as a shareholder.

[winner69]

My bad little experience I had on the last page has been resolved, its in the other thread here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11058-Flying-premium-Class-on-AirNZ-or-A380&p=682234&viewfull=1#post682234.

AirNZ has come to the party and we've had an exceptionally good outcome.

I am very impressed with their customer service and have a much higher opinion of the company as a shareholder.

So they stuff you big time ....and then pay you off ....so you super impressed with their customer service

Wonder what happened to the other 9 customers who they stuffed up and walked ...... gone to Emirates I suppose



Assuming 1 in 10 follow thriugh and don't walk away ...could be higher

[winner69]

My bad little experience I had on the last page has been resolved, its in the other thread here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11058-Flying-premium-Class-on-AirNZ-or-A380&p=682234&viewfull=1#post682234.

AirNZ has come to the party and we've had an exceptionally good outcome.

I am very impressed with their customer service and have a much higher opinion of the company as a shareholder.

As a shareholder I'm gutted - giving stuff away to make up for 'mistakes' hurts profit

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=beagle+yawns+&&view=detail&mid=FD3E1E87C894004A20DEFD3E1E87C894004A20DE&FORM=VRDGAR

[Fatboyj]

Yes, & yes. My experience, what others do is up to them. If they follow through then I'm sure airnz will sort them out.

Trust me, compared to Jetstar this is leagues ahead. Be happy you're a shareholder, airnz looks after their customers. You don't like it sell your shares I'll buy them off you.

[winner69]

Less than a year ago AIR share price was $1.75

Isn't that half of what it is now?

[Beagle]

Less than a year ago AIR share price was $1.75

Isn't that half of what it is now?

You know it is mate. Its been a great year to be an AIR shareholder, double your money plus dividends, (quite the opposite of what a number of doomsayers were predicting less than a year ago).

[winner69]

You know it is mate. Its been a great year to be an AIR shareholder, double your money plus dividends, (quite the opposite of what a number of doomsayers were predicting less than a year ago).

Suppose it would be stupid thinking it might double again in the next 12 months

But 5 bucks would be fine - especially with a good outlook next August after recording their second highest ever profit ....but heck could be making record profits in F19

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ Average broker outlook for the next 3 years contained therein.
Must say I was very surprised by IATA lifting their passenger growth expectations for the Asia Pacific region as much as they did, (as reported in the Gaynor article).
I would think with that sort of ongoing growth in this region and managements confidence in profit growth that the analysts estimates contained therein look fairly conservative.

[couta1]

Suppose it would be stupid thinking it might double again in the next 12 months

But 5 bucks would be fine - especially with a good outlook next August after recording their second highest ever profit ....but heck could be making record profits in F19 No worries winner, if a large scale war breaks out, the price will soon half again back to $1.75.

[Raz]

My bad little experience I had on the last page has been resolved, its in the other thread here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11058-Flying-premium-Class-on-AirNZ-or-A380&p=682234&viewfull=1#post682234.

AirNZ has come to the party and we've had an exceptionally good outcome.

I am very impressed with their customer service and have a much higher opinion of the company as a shareholder.

I hope you are happy with the product...if not at least you will comforted that you got it discounted..I really hope you are petite, tiny or real short..actually all will
be helpful....

[Fatboyj]

As a couple our combined weight will be 130kg. And I can comfortably sleep on two seats on a plane, to be able to stretch 1.55M and 74cm wide is going to be fantastic.

Also get extra 2 fat pillows, fat blanket, fat mattress. Cheers.

[Raz]

As a couple our combined weight will be 130kg. And I can comfortably sleep on two seats on a plane, to be able to stretch 1.55M and 74cm wide is going to be fantastic.

Also get extra 2 fat pillows, fat blanket, fat mattress. Cheers.

I know what you get...I was given it free once in economy...love the stretch out 1.55m comment.. your height is the key and the position you can actually sleep which you fail to mention...you have to be very short or able to curl into a ball to sleep as you will have no leg room with it fully set up. For someone that sleeps two thirds of any flight I found being over six foot it actually impossible to use...explains why they consider it as a product fail and not been able to on sell it...all the best. In the last couple of days did you consider Emirates 100th A380 sale - Premium seats were on at half price...that was the deal of the past week. They must have real surplus seats out of AKl currently..

[blackcap]

I know what you get...I was given it free once in economy...love the stretch out 1.55m comment.. your height is the key and the position you can actually sleep which you fail to mention...you have to be very short or able to curl into a ball to sleep as you will have no leg room with it fully set up. For someone that sleeps two thirds of any flight I found being over six foot it actually impossible to use...explains why they consider it as a product fail and not been able to on sell it...all the best. In the last couple of days did you consider Emirates 100th A380 sale - Premium seats were on at half price...that was the deal of the past week. They must have real surplus seats out of AKl currently..

With you on that one. I am 187 cm tall and have had the Sky Couch twice now. (not paid for just by seat selection and not many ppl on flight). But its not long enough for me and I cannot sleep properly because my legs have to be curled and I need to stretch. So never would I pay for it. I was with my partner on the second leg and we did try and spoon. After 20 mins just gave up.. too uncomfortable not being about to move at all because no room. So went back to sitting. Its a good concept but probably works better on the smaller Asian audience.

[Raz]

No worries winner, if a large scale war breaks out, the price will soon half again back to $1.75.

So true...surprised where it has settled for now however have no complaints.

[janner]

So true...surprised where it has settled for now however have no complaints.

With the Korean problem. The whole oil delivery situation could change .

Air's forward fuel contracts may come under pressure " Force majeure " . Maybe not..


Disc. Not a holder..

[Raz]

With the Korean problem. The whole oil delivery situation could change .

Air's forward fuel contracts may come under pressure " Force majeure " . Maybe not..


Disc. Not a holder..

Texas is also another oil issue...

[arc]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by couta1 https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=682342#post682342)

No worries winner, if a large scale war breaks out, the price will soon half again back to $1.75.



So true...surprised where it has settled for now however have no complaints.

Seems that the divi which is due to go ex on the 7th (11cps) , has been the motivator behind the rising price since early August. Perhaps we will now see some exit strategies kick in as the rise has delivered roughly between 20c to 30c top-up for those people, a bit larger than the divi will deliver.

[Fatboyj]

So then a price fall to say 3.40 is on the cards, then slowly going back up or languishing at that level?
I'm now in the position of needing to juggle funds. Sell air after divi, sell the dogpoop that is mpg and cut my losses, have a plan now you can - get a loan from gem finance. Ah but this is for another thread.

And sky couch, my thin short frame is going to enjoy the free upgrade to London. I'll post pics.

[winner69]

And sky couch, my thin short frame is going to enjoy the free upgrade to London. I'll post pics.

.......please don't

[Beagle]

In my opinion is the positive FY18 outlook, (market is always looking forward) outlined by management at the results presentation and as signaled by the increased dividend, that's driven the SP to $3.60.

[janner]

In my opinion is the positive FY18 outlook, (market is always looking forward) outlined by management at the results presentation and as signaled by the increased dividend, that's driven the SP to $3.60.

And the world goes by ????.. Not in my opinion ... https://www.google.com.ua/search?dcr=0&source=hp&q=the+times+they+are+a+changin+peter+paul+and+mary&oq=the+times+they+are+a+changing.&gs_l=psy-ab.1.3.0i13i30k1l4.4232.16207.0.24602.32.31.0.0.0. 0.244.3971.0j29j1.30.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..2.30.3968.6..0j35i39k1j0i67k1j0i10k1.QHrIjNKIg 08

To rapidly these days..

[cyclist]

... my thin short frame is going to enjoy the free upgrade to London.

Nice ironic on-line name you use then :t_up:

[janner]

Texas is also another oil issue...

Which I feel the Barons will take advantage of... I would...

[Fatboyj]

My best buddy junior was a big bloke, we called him fatboy. In homage to him, there's no way sky couch would work for him.

[Raz]

.......please don't

Ha happy it's going to work out for you on Air Fatboy..funny name you have then....cheers to our good dividends which I will spend at the E air bar:)

[RupertBear]

Wonder what will happen tomorrow when it goes ex divi :confused: hmm to sell or to hold that is the question! I stuffed up last time selling ex divi and watched it fly higher and higher and I wasnt on board! :(

[777]

Wonder what will happen tomorrow when it goes ex divi :confused: hmm to sell or to hold that is the question! I stuffed up last time selling ex divi and watched it fly higher and higher and I wasnt on board! :(

I did the same. Bought more ATM instead. Worked out better.

Doesn't always go that way though.

[see weed]

I did the same. Bought more ATM instead. Worked out better.

Doesn't always go that way though.
I gotta a good feeling about AIR and don't think it will drop too much. And ATM will carry on as usual.

[dobby41]

I gotta a good feeling about AIR and don't think it will drop too much. And ATM will carry on as usual.

Why bother with analysis if you gotta feeling :t_up:

[Beagle]

Why bother with analysis if you gotta feeling :t_up:

LOL - What's a feeling anyway ?

feel|ing
[ˈfiːlɪŋ]

NOUN
an emotional state or reaction:
"a feeling of joy"
synonyms: love · care · affection · fondness · tenderness · warmth · [more]
an idea or belief, especially a vague or irrational one:
"he had the feeling that he was being watched"
synonyms: suspicion · sneaking suspicion · notion · inkling · hunch · [more]
the capacity to experience the sense of touch:
"a loss of feeling in the hands"
synonyms: sensory faculty · feeling · sensation · perception · sight · [more]

a sensitivity to or intuitive understanding of:
"she says I have a feeling for medicine"
synonyms: aptitude · knack · flair · bent · talent · gift · skill · art · [more]
I think when one tunes into their conference calls you get the feeling "intuitive understanding" that senior management are very switched on.

Give good assets to fair management and you get reasonable results.
Give good assets to very poor management and you get awful results.
Give good assets to excellent management and you get outstanding results :t_up:
Some interesting comments regarding China market and if you have a spare 12 minutes makes for a good listen
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11917676 Chris Luxon - Let's reach for the Sky.

I think our see weed's feeling is well founded but I also think the SP at circa $3.50 ex divvy is about fair value for now, ($550m before tax gives 35 cps after tax so 2018 PE is currently 10) until we get further visibility on earnings from management, possibly at the annual meeting...but to be honest at the ASM I simply expect management to reiterate their confidence in profit growth this year without putting a number on it.

[vici]

Agree it feels like about fair value. I like AIR's positioning in the domestic market, and overseas is a growth area. The industry trends and popularity of travel isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Things that put it at risk are the usual for airlines - Oil prices, and risk of new entrants.
Love what Luxon has done for the company, but why so aggressive in selling his option-shares?

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/306935

There we've it, Sir John's initial discl...welcome aboard :)

[value_investor]

Even JK couldn't resist the juicy dividend. Maybe he should have waited for prices to get to a cruising altitude first :p

[arc]

Personally I tend to agree with Beagles estimates, AIR is definitely cyclic in nature but its a worthwhile hold. I tend to have a hard time trying to uncover the underlying heuristic trends for this one, but the hunt is rewarding in itself. The inter relational dynamics from multiple different sources , oil , competition, weather, tourism boom/bust, management tweaking, it all makes for a bumpy ride. I wouldn't be too hard on the management divesting some of their shares, its a "ride it as it happens" type of stock.

Almost the diametric opposite of HBL in terms of complexity, and yet in the market arena with THL. I expect a positive outlook for AIR

[Baa_Baa]

Can't help wondering with such a shrewd trading background, that John Key would ever buy near 'a top', in anything, surely not just to show a united front, unless it's just a gesture and he doesn't care too much about the capital value of those shares. Then again why would a shrewd trader like John Key not care about capital value? This must point to further upside in the SP and of course the outstanding dividends some K9's here keep alluding to. All good, it's clover from here on, JK says so, must be so.

[couta1]

Can't help wondering with such a shrewd trading background, that John Key would ever buy near 'a top', in anything, surely not just to show a united front, unless it's just a gesture and he doesn't care too much about the capital value of those shares. Then again why would a shrewd trader like John Key not care about capital value? This must point to further upside in the SP and of course the outstanding dividends some K9's here keep alluding to. All good, it's clover from here on, JK says so, must be so. Just a token sized holding for a man of JK's means, I doubt he would give much consideration at all.

[Scrunch]

Just a token sized holding for a man of JK's means, I doubt he would give much consideration at all.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[winner69]

Just a token sized holding for a man of JK's means, I doubt he would give much consideration at all.

Shows real commitment though.

Wonder if his concentration levels are high enough for a full on AIR board meeting.

[couta1]

Shows real commitment though.

Wonder if his concentration levels are high enough for a full on AIR board meeting. Not really mate, 20k shares is as I said above just a token gesture. Air once made up over 50% of my portfolio total, that was commitment.

[Jay]

Reportidly, just sold his mansion for $20M, still has to rebuild a new house, next to his old one, not sure I would want live next door, seeing what the nighbour is/is not doing to the house you use to own - everyday, more especially a larger property like his, a little different if you suddivie and "ordinary" property and build new on the front or back.

Probably a token jesture as others said.

[nzspeak]

"AIR is definitely cyclic"

isn't the sharemarket, in general, cyclic?

what stage is AIR now?

rugby teams are cyclic, life is cyclic, airlines stocks are historically cyclic, so what? are you going to short AIR? no you're not because 'cyclic' is just a meaningless label.

[winner69]

"AIR is definitely cyclic"

isn't the sharemarket, in general, cyclic?

what stage is AIR now?

rugby teams are cyclic, life is cyclic, airlines stocks are historically cyclic, so what? are you going to short AIR? no you're not because 'cyclic' is just a meaningless label.

Just as the trend is your friend ignore 'cyclic' things at your peril

[arc]

A man on a bicycle rides from Tairua to Coromandel. The road between is comprised of flat areas, gentle rises, gut busting hills, high speed descents, terrifying slippery downhill corners...especially in the rain, wonderful views worthy of international magazines. The man starts his ride at 3.5 meters above sea level in Tairua, he finishes the ride at the same altitude in Coromandel. If you subtract all the downhills from all the uphills there is no difference, technically speaking the course involves no "work" as there is no gravitational induced gain by altitude adjustment when the course is normalised over its entirety... and yet the course is definitely cyclic. Months of training, months of sweat and sore muscles, and yet he does no work... Go figure..

[Beagle]

Chris Luxon's concluding remark from the annual results conference call, "onward and upward" Inconsistent with the notion we're at the top of the cycle in my opinion.
Happy holder.

[winner69]

Chris Luxon's concluding remark from the annual results conference call, "onward and upward" Inconsistent with the notion we're at the top of the cycle in my opinion.
Happy holder.

Earnings maybe onwards but then there's always that pesky market sentiment that often is cyclical ....AIR at a PE of 7 again is ?

[Beagle]

Not losing any sleep over my AIR holding mate. Their PE is pretty consistent with other airlines I monitor and I am very comfortable with the caliber of senior management, fleet composition, average age, forward capex cycle coming to a conclusion and their fundamentals.
Their current PE of 10 needs to be viewed in the context of a market PE of double that. Happy it represents fair value and a good hold and remember that their most recent profit was made during a period of time when competition could have been at a cyclical high. Many recent entrants have now pulled back on capacity for the FY18 year and remember too that we are presently lapping the time of year when new entrants offered dirt cheap opening specials for months on end at unsustainable pricing, pricing that we're not seeing repeated on a widespread basis. (i.e. AIR's management are confident on the RPK outlook).
Prresently sitting by the food bowl looking forward to the imminent meal service :)

[winner69]

Not losing any sleep over my AIR holding mate. Their PE is pretty consistent with other airlines I monitor and I am very comfortable with the caliber of senior management, fleet composition, average age, forward capex cycle coming to a conclusion and their fundamentals.
Their current PE of 10 needs to be viewed in the context of a market PE of double that. Happy it represents fair value and a good hold and remember that their most recent profit was made during a period of time when competition could have been at a cyclical high. Many recent entrants have now pulled back on capacity for the FY18 year and remember too that we are presently lapping the time of year when new entrants offered dirt cheap opening specials for months on end at unsustainable pricing, pricing that we're not seeing repeated on a widespread basis. (i.e. AIR's management are confident on the RPK outlook).
Prresently sitting by the food bowl looking forward to the imminent meal service :)

Don't overlook that over many years AIR' PE is generally about 50% of the overall market PE (except in really bad years when it has got to above market avaerage)

So maybe priced about 'right' now

Weird eh possums

[Beagle]

10 year average PE is 11 you told me a while back mate. I think the way they weathered the storm of new competition last year and still achieved the second highest profit ever in 77 years really shows up the resilience of their business model. Now some competitors are starting to act more rationally...who knows, maybe $600m plus on the cards for FY18 and we see $4 in due course ?
$630m would give us 40 cps and we use your 10 year average PE of 11, heck maybe $4.40 this time next year :) Unwise to suggest this doesn't have both upside and downside potential in my view but at present I remain of the view until we get more visibility on earnings they're about fair value.
I'll probably attend the annual meeting on 28 September and although I'm not expecting any further formal profit guidance, (other than what's already been stated) it will be interesting to pick up on the degree of positivity, tone and general body language and besides that the salmon sandwiches were great last time.

[winner69]

Even if Sir John flees NZ after selling the country down the river suppose he can still be of value as a Director

Maybe even better having overseas directors anyway

[see weed]

Has AIR got a DRP for the last div?

[babymonster]

no, not for a long time

[Snow Leopard]

Price of Singapore Jet continues to trend up. Current price [I have] is $66.90 a sip.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

80% forward cover on fuel prices for FY18 might come in handy.

[Oliver Mander]

in that context, seems a bit odd that there is some downward pressure on the shares right now...wonder what their operating stats will look like for August?

[winner69]

in that context, seems a bit odd that there is some downward pressure on the shares right now...wonder what their operating stats will look like for August?

....solid ...maybe even stunning I reckon

[couta1]

in that context, seems a bit odd that there is some downward pressure on the shares right now...wonder what their operating stats will look like for August? The Taxcinda effect, let's not do this.

[Beagle]

Lets do this, No lets do that, no lets tax this, No, lets tax that...Oh gosh I really don't know lol.

[couta1]

Lets do this, No lets do that, no lets tax this, No, lets tax that...Oh gosh I really don't know lol. More volatile than the Air SP over the last year. Flying Air back to WGTN from Q/town tomorrow, expecting less turbulence than the current political situation. PS- The locals down here not impressed by all the stardust hype.

[weasel]

Friends of mine flew Shanghai to Auckland two weeks ago and three weeks ago, respectively. Only 1/3 full in economy both times. Free skycouches to themselves.... good for them, not so good sign for shareholders

[workingdad]

Friends of mine flew Shanghai to Auckland two weeks ago and three weeks ago, respectively. Only 1/3 full in economy both times. Free skycouches to themselves.... good for them, not so good sign for shareholders

I had an overnighter from perth to auckland last night and it was rather full. only 3 seats empty from my view point. An upgrade request decision was put off til 7-9 hours before departure on a standby so no issues on that on.

Flew qantas within aussie a couple of times, not impressed and talk about the least leg room I have ever encountered. Airnz are opening a lounge at perth this year which will be good, the qantas one they use is pretty average.

[winner69]

Share price taking a hammering lately

At least the divie will be in the bank on Monday