AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Share price taking a hammering lately

At least the divie will be in the bank on Monday Everythings taking a hammering at the moment, with the election uncertainty combined with the North Korean nutter.As is sometimes the case, the SP drop exceeds the value of the dividend by a significant margin.

[meltical]

Everythings taking a hammering at the moment, with the election uncertainty combined with the North Korean nutter.As is sometimes the case, the SP drop exceeds the value of the dividend by a significant margin.

look at the trade volumes,that ain't election or NK. It is happening across the board

[Drummer]

Keeps seeing these small sales volumes popping up, cannot cut & paste here...

But when it hits 3.245 someone jumps in with a sell at 3.235 of around 300 shares.

Someone capping here???

[winner69]

Interesting - Fyfe and Air Canada

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96917058/former-ceo-of-air-new-zealand-joins-canadian-airlines-board

[winner69]

That Parton pretty clever guy

Collects the dividend and sells a bundle at $3.50

Think he picked the top last time around as well.

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/306935

There we've it, Sir John's initial discl...welcome aboard :)

Wonder how long he has owned these 20,000 shares

[Baa_Baa]

That Parton pretty clever guy

Collects the dividend and sells a bundle at $3.50

Think he picked the top last time around as well.

Follow the money, AIR's top brass are the best indicator, beats FA or charts every time (for capital sensitive investors). Easy to follow as well, as it's all disclosed. Consider it an investor service.

[Beagle]

Its just one guy selling, and the shares have already fallen 25 cents in the pre-election uncertainty and its by no means whatsoever the only share coming under pressure. Even fairly safe and predictable shares like HBL have copped a beating over the last week.

[Snow Leopard]

Follow the money, AIR's top brass are the best indicator, beats FA or charts every time (for capital sensitive investors). Easy to follow as well, as it's all disclosed. Consider it an investor service.

But does Mr Parton use FA or TA to make his sell decisions Baa Baa?

[Baa_Baa]

But does Mr Parton use FA or TA to make his sell decisions Baa Baa?

Who would know, do you? Irrelevant really, insiders forced to broadcast their trades, just follow the money. They're consistently correct on the trend, and particularly the turning points. Would be stupid to ignore the insiders. Few stocks are so prone to insider sentiment.

[Beagle]

Who would know, do you? Irrelevant really, insiders forced to broadcast their trades, just follow the money. They're consistently correct on the trend, and particularly the turning points. Would be stupid to ignore the insiders. Few stocks are so prone to insider sentiment. Extract from post #12264 Its just one guy selling, You might want to check the use of the plural words in your post :)

[couta1]

Extract from post #12264 Its just one guy selling, You might want to check the use of the plural words in your post :) Let's hope the sheep don't follow aye.:cool:

[Beagle]

Let's hope the sheep don't follow aye.:cool:

LOL, you're on form today mate.

[Snow Leopard]

Who would know, do you? Irrelevant really, insiders forced to broadcast their trades, just follow the money. They're consistently correct on the trend, and particularly the turning points. Would be stupid to ignore the insiders. Few stocks are so prone to insider sentiment.

So what about his sale of 243,493 shares at about $2.32 each around 13th March then?

Or Mr Jones selling at $2.78 in May?

or Mr Whittaker selling at $3.00 in June?

Maybe the smart ones are Ms Jenkinson buying at $2.39 late March or Ms Walsh buying at $2.55 in early May?


On the plus side there are more than one insider so insiders trades and other plural words is correct.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS I believe this airline (& a few others) to be over-priced.

[RGR367]

Not caring about those inside traders right now but suffice to say that I got way way heaps more shares than John Key :p

[Xerof]

There's no FA or TA used by staffers. They are so poorly paid, they have to sell their shares the minute they are able to be sold, just to put food on the table..............



:p

[Beagle]

There's no FA or TA used by staffers. They are so poorly paid, they have to sell their shares the minute they are able to be sold, just to put food on the table..............



:p





The first sentence is actually very true - just look at the prices most staffers gave their shares away at, over the past 15 to 18 months

Very true. There were multiple sales by many insiders in early 2016 at substantially lower prevailing prices than the current SP. If we'd all followed them like sheep nobody would have collected the juicy special divvy last year not to forget nearly doubling your money since this time last year.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11923227

Not a good look (especially in the eyes of foreigners)

[iceman]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11923227

Not a good look (especially in the eyes of foreigners)

Quite extraordinary this can happen. I hope my flight from LA on Monday will not be too adversely affected.

[t.rexjr]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11923227

Not a good look (especially in the eyes of foreigners)

Bit of a worry if local engineers can't fix a pipe...

[Snow Leopard]

I hear Chris Luxon is driving up towards Whangarei with his SUV and a rental trailer full of jerry cans.

[stoploss]

I just had a flight from Auck - WGTN Cancelled on Tuesday . Easy to book on another flight. So in some ways not the biggest nightmare , no half full planes flying around .....

[Raz]

I just had a flight from Auck - WGTN Cancelled on Tuesday . Easy to book on another flight. So in some ways not the biggest nightmare , no half full planes flying around .....

The AIR flights tomorrow cancelled appeared limited. Flying into AKL for the day... looking all ok here...

[Meextr]

I heard this leak has been known about for a few days, I wonder if this partially impacted on share price. Will be interesting day for share price tomorrow.

[Baa_Baa]

The AIR flights tomorrow cancelled appeared limited. Flying into AKL for the day... looking all ok here...

This will not cause a continuation of the sell off in AIR. Or maybe it will, who knows. Has nothing to do with insiders flicking their shares. Just planes stuck on the tarmac.

Sheep jokes, innuendo and protectionism from the defenders of the realm will follow shortly.

"We are New Zealand's only oil refinery and we have a reputation as one of Asia Pacific's safest and most reliable refineries.So what is it exactly that we do? To put it simply, crude oil bought by our customers is shipped to our deep-water port at Marsden Point, near Whangarei, where we refine it into high quality transport fuels for New Zealand. And that's a big job.
We supply:


all of the country's jet fuel

Bugger, ALL of the country's jet fuel, that's not good is it.

Tough day at the bourse tomorrow?

[Snow Leopard]

FYI:

http://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/whats-happening/news/2017/nz-increases-jet-fuel-supply-to-meet-growing-demand

[Oliver Mander]

This will not cause a continuation of the sell off in AIR. Or maybe it will, who knows. Has nothing to do with insiders flicking their shares. Just planes stuck on the tarmac.

Sheep jokes, innuendo and protectionism from the defenders of the realm will follow shortly.

"We are New Zealand's only oil refinery and we have a reputation as one of Asia Pacific's safest and most reliable refineries.So what is it exactly that we do? To put it simply, crude oil bought by our customers is shipped to our deep-water port at Marsden Point, near Whangarei, where we refine it into high quality transport fuels for New Zealand. And that's a big job.
We supply:


all of the country's jet fuel

Bugger, ALL of the country's jet fuel, that's not good is it.

Tough day at the bourse tomorrow?

They don't though - its fairly common to import m8d-distillate (incl. Jet) into Christchurch supply.

[Jantar]

all of the country's jet fuel

Bugger, ALL of the country's jet fuel, that's not good is it.

Tough day at the bourse tomorrow? I understand that it is the pipe to Auckland that is damaged. The rest of the country gets its jet fuel by tanker

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11923227

Not a good look (especially in the eyes of foreigners)

Hasn't even rated a mention in the Aust morning papers.

[Beagle]

FYI:

http://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/whats-happening/news/2017/nz-increases-jet-fuel-supply-to-meet-growing-demand

LOL Great way to start the week with some nice humor.
I think one or two might panic and sell and any further meaningful drop might see the hound pounce.
Interesting... http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/government-warned-of-fuel-risk-five-years-ago/ar-AAs5fcR?li=AAaUOAg&ocid=spartandhp

[QOH]

I guess the share price will go down by more than our dividend today.

[couta1]

I guess the share price will go down by more than our dividend today. The SP has already dropped over double the value of the divvy since going Ex, as have others that have shed their divvy recently, elections aye, don't you love them, now just add a bit of fuel shortage to the mix.

[bull....]

looked like air put in a double top at 3.60 break under the neckline of 3.20 might be bad

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/307355

AIR statement. "Material" for those of you who have never been "lucky" enough to be auditors is defined as greater that 5% of net profit.
What they saying here is the impact on profit is likely to be less than $20m after tax which on 1,123m shares means the impact is likely to be less than 1.78 cps, (before any business interruption insurance they may or may not have to cover this sort of thing).

arc - It has dropped down through the 100 day MA which gives the hound grounds to "paws" for thought. Given the circumstances of the looming election, ongoing geopolitical tension with North Korea and this latest issue I might just continue to embrace the inner possum staring into the bright landing lights with this one.

[sb9]

Well, on a positive note enjoy those divvy payments hitting bank accounts at some stage today :)

[couta1]

No material effect on 2018 earnings sounds like a veiled buy signal.

[Beagle]

No material effect on 2018 earnings sounds like a veiled buy signal.

Just clarifying the extent of the problem. They probably felt it was best practice to keep the market informed, good on them.

[777]

From the Herald.

Air New Zealand warned of fuel supply problem 5 years ago.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11923427

[sb9]

Divvy amount in the bank a/c just now, very happy :t_up:

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/307364

Credit to Rob McDonald who has helped navigate the company through some difficult times as well as being instrumental in helping build the company's profitability through efficiency enhancement strategies in the good times. One of only a tiny percentage of airlines to make money throughout the GFC Rob was a former winner of CFO of the year award and has served the company and its shareholders extremely well in this bean counters opinion. A fine career and he deserves to be recognized for his long and loyal service at the forthcoming annual meeting in my opinion. New chap looks to have very sound credentials.

Looks like we're about 10 days away from fuel flowing normally. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/pipeline-leak-still-highly-explosive-refining-nz/ar-AAs6ain?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp

[Beagle]

As you will no doubt have seen in the media over the past couple of days, the temporary shut-down of Refining New Zealand’s fuel pipeline into Auckland is impacting all airlines operating into and out of Auckland Airport and limiting the volume of jet fuel able to be uplifted.
Unfortunately Air New Zealand is experiencing disruption to services as a result of this issue including a number of flight cancellations as we work to consolidate passenger loads and minimise fuel usage. We are working with affected customers to offer alternative flight options.
In addition to the cancellations, some long-haul services to and from Asia and North America will undertake necessary refueling stops at selected Pacific or Australian airports in order for us to alleviate pressure on fuel supplies in Auckland.
If you are currently booked to travel into or out of Auckland in the coming days, please keep an eye on the Air New Zealand Travel Alerts page for the most up to date information on flight cancellations – this page will be updated regularly.
Should your flight be affected, we will be in touch with you directly about the options available to you.
Unfortunately, this issue is beyond Air New Zealand’s control and we are extremely disappointed that this key infrastructure failure is now impacting on our operations and on you, our customers.
Please rest assured we are doing everything within our control to minimise the impact on customers’ travel plans. In the meantime – to those of you impacted, we do appreciate your patience and understanding and thank you for your ongoing cooperation.

[value_investor]

I was hoping for a bit more panic to set in before I came in on some shares..

Finished up stronger than I thought

[minimoke]

As you will no doubt have seen in the media over the past couple of days, the temporary shut-down of Refining New Zealand’s fuel pipeline into Auckland is impacting all airlines operating into and out of Auckland Airport and limiting the volume of jet fuel able to be uplifted..
Just wondering - do Airpoint liabilities show in the accounts?

[Beagle]

Just wondering - do Airpoint liabilities show in the accounts?

Yeap, sure do.

[winner69]

Yeap, sure do.

Was recorded as $316m in June Accounts

[Leftfield]

The current fuel issues and vulnerability of AIR to outside events, reminds me of why, two years ago I had a rethink on my AIR holdings and decided that if I was going to invest in 'tourism' it may be better to choose THL.

Interesting to compare what has happened to the SP of both companies since then. THL in red. AIR in blue. (Remember this chart ignores Div yield.)

9178

[winner69]

Tip to get to Auckland airport quicker ......follow a fuel tanker

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96983358/traffic-lights-to-be-phased-to-speed-up-fuel-trucks-to-auckland-airport

[winner69]

Getting serious

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97009580/air-new-zealand-refueling-long-haul-planes-in-wellington-as-auckland-jet-fuel-crisis-deepens

[Beagle]

Getting serious

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97009580/air-new-zealand-refueling-long-haul-planes-in-wellington-as-auckland-jet-fuel-crisis-deepens

Could be some interesting bird watching for you mate. Long haul planes taking off from Wellington on maximum possible thrust and maximum fuel payload for the runway length. I can't help wondering who is going to get sued for this ? I hope whoever dug that pipeline up has a very large public liability insurance policy.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ________________________________

Do not believe the public relations B.S. about no big problem with premium grade petrol in Auckland. I am topping up my Beast with 98 Octane this evening if I can find a supply of it. Already publicly we are starting to see a problem with 95 Octane availability and 98 is harder to get. I speculate the problem is already a LOT worse than what's said on public record. Will resort to feeding the beast 95 if I have too but it doesn't like it.
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/auckland-fuel-crisis-1-in-5-z-stations-out-of-premium-petrol/ar-AAsceYw?ocid=spartandhp

[bull....]

cancelling ticket sales , flights - downgrade time soon if it lasts too long

[Beagle]

cancelling ticket sales , flights - downgrade time soon if it lasts too long
No they have already said that they don't expect the impact to be material. As I have already posted, I expect the impact to be less than 2 cps in the current year's earnings (less any business interruption insurance they may or may not have and any possible recovery of damages from a third party). I'm sure we will get an update at the annual meeting late next week.

[Raz]

No they have already said that they don't expect the impact to be material. As I have already posted, I expect the impact to be less than 2 cps in the current year's earnings (less any business interruption insurance they may or may not have and any possible recovery of damages from a third party). I'm sure we will get an update at the annual meeting late next week.

Been hearing and seeing a few comments like this starting to float around...

"It seems really strange to me that one hole is causing so much grief. Nor can I understand how it can take weeks to fix said hole. Is there perhaps a lot more to this story than we are being told? Is the real state of the pipeline much more serious than anyone is prepared to admit just four days from the election? "

[Baa_Baa]

Been hearing and seeing a few comments like this starting to float around...

"It seems really strange to me that one hole is causing so much grief. Nor can I understand how it can take weeks to fix said hole. Is there perhaps a lot more to this story than we are being told? Is the real state of the pipeline much more serious than anyone is prepared to admit just four days from the election? "

There's always more to it than is made public, let alone 4 days from an election, both major parties ducking for cover after both ignored warnings of the pipeline vulnerability.

AIR taking some extraordinary measures limiting Jet fuel consumption. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97009580/air-new-zealand-refueling-long-haul-planes-in-wellington-as-auckland-jet-fuel-crisis-deepens

SP is holding up pretty well despite the debacle.

[Snow Leopard]

I hope Chris will be handing out extra $$$ to the team:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1709/S00601/all-hands-to-the-pump-at-air-new-zealand.htm

[couta1]

There's always more to it than is made public, let alone 4 days from an election, both major parties ducking for cover after both ignored warnings of the pipeline vulnerability.

AIR taking some extraordinary measures limiting Jet fuel consumption. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97009580/air-new-zealand-refueling-long-haul-planes-in-wellington-as-auckland-jet-fuel-crisis-deepens

SP is holding up pretty well despite the debacle. Let it drop, quite happy to take another XXOS holding.

[Baa_Baa]

There's always more to it than is made public, let alone 4 days from an election, both major parties ducking for cover after both ignored warnings of the pipeline vulnerability.

AIR taking some extraordinary measures limiting Jet fuel consumption. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97009580/air-new-zealand-refueling-long-haul-planes-in-wellington-as-auckland-jet-fuel-crisis-deepens

SP is holding up pretty well despite the debacle.

So what's REALLY going on? No chance of really knowing with only a few days before election and the major party's ducking for cover, but ... https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97003803/wynyard-planning-hints-at-auckland-jet-fuel-outage-lasting-longer-than-expected

"Wynyard planning hints at Auckland jet fuel outage lasting longer than expected"

Currently via media, "at least nine days". if this is prolonged though, it can't be good for AIR SP, except for XXOS buyers.

And this as well, AIR and NZ Refining becoming effect and cause. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/96994962/questions-begin-to-pile-up-for-refining-nz-over-fuel-leak-and-nzx-disclosure

Reckon this will be over in a few days?

[bull....]

Been hearing and seeing a few comments like this starting to float around...

"It seems really strange to me that one hole is causing so much grief. Nor can I understand how it can take weeks to fix said hole. Is there perhaps a lot more to this story than we are being told? Is the real state of the pipeline much more serious than anyone is prepared to admit just four days from the election? "

didnt they have a petrol enquiry a while ago - payback time

[winner69]

Even when the fuel starts moving again I heard somebody on the radio say that it will take 2 to 3 days for it to settle (in the tanks?) before recertification can be done. Wouldn't want dodgy fuel in a Dreamliner eh

[Antipodean]

30 hours to settle I believe

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11923450

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11924331

Wow..who knew an A380 takes over 300,000 liters of aviation fuel to fill it up !

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11924331

Wow..who knew an A380 takes over 300,000 liters of aviation fuel to fill it up !

Yeah. There is nothing worse than pulling in to get a few litres for the motorbike and seeing one of those bad boys in the queue ahead of you :mad ;:.

[Beagle]

Yeah. There is nothing worse than pulling in to get a few litres for the motorbike and seeing one of those bad boys in the queue ahead of you :mad ;:.

:lol: :lol: Too funny !!!

[tobo]

Each RR Trent 900 has been cleared to eventually certify at 81,000 lbs of thrust (more than 75,000 HP). It is currently being run at 76,500 lbs (about 71,000 HP) (ie. 53,000kw)
x 4 engines = 212,000kw.
Serious peddling might produce 400kw, so need 530 passengers peddling hard.

So a bit short but not so out of the question.

Think of the other advantages.
Good for not getting stiff legs. . .but need to feed the passengers more calories.
And give them a discount for fuel saved.

[meltical]

So for emergency backup contingency, install this high tech device at all seating positions and get the passengers to provide input to drive the generator to drive the electric turbo engines and hey presto problems solved... who needs fuel...

9180

you reckon team NZ could start flying some Air NZ planes around

[Poet]

Each RR Trent 900 has been cleared to eventually certify at 81,000 lbs of thrust (more than 75,000 HP). It is currently being run at 76,500 lbs (about 71,000 HP) (ie. 53,000kw)
x 4 engines = 212,000kw.
Serious peddling might produce 400kw, so need 530 passengers peddling hard.

So a bit short but not so out of the question.

Think of the other advantages.
Good for not getting stiff legs. . .but need to feed the passengers more calories.
And give them a discount for fuel saved.

A reasonably fit person on a bike could sustain around 200 Watts of power output, so 530 people pedaling hard together could maybe manage 100kW in total. A long long way short of 212,000 kW. :)

[Fatboyj]

Can Air claim compensation from whoever for the massive numbers of cancellations and extra costs associated with this fiasco? Thankfully the SP has stopped its slide today.

[Beagle]

Can Air claim compensation from whoever for the massive numbers of cancellations and extra costs associated with this fiasco? Thankfully the SP has stopped its slide today.

Good question and I am sure their lawyers will be looking into that. There also exists the possibility that they may have business interruption insurance for this sort of thing. I am just assuming it dents their current year's profit by about 1.5 cps as a one-off matter and won't affect future year's earnings so have just lowered my valuation by 1.5 cps. In the meantime here's an update regarding the situation. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/fuel-crisis-air-nz-ticket-sales-restrictions-easing/ar-AAseExi?ocid=spartandhp

[peat]

Can Air claim compensation from whoever for the massive numbers of cancellations and extra costs associated with this fiasco? Thankfully the SP has stopped its slide today.

I dont know the terms or type of their policies and cover however it is possible under one of the standard extensions to the agreement which I have pulled from a generic policy below

You are insured for business interruption resulting directly from property damage to thebuildings, plant, equipment, or supply lines, located in New Zealand, of any public utility thatsupplies:1. power or gas, or2. water or sewage disposal, or3. telecommunications,to your business.


(having worked on EQ BI claims for years, I do have some experience in this area)

[Scrunch]

Assuming this sort of event is covered, there could also be the issue of the policy excess. For a company making the sort of money AIR do, they may effectively self unsure all but the really big stuff. A couple of weeks and everything should be back to normal.

[Beagle]

Assuming this sort of event is covered, there could also be the issue of the policy excess. For a company making the sort of money AIR do, they may effectively self unsure all but the really big stuff. A couple of weeks and everything should be back to normal.

Quite correct, policy excess could be quite a few million. I am sure AIR management will have something to say on the subject at next Thursday's annual meeting....which is right beside the on the water boat show in the Viaduct harbor which starts on the same day...how convenient is that ! http://www.auckland-boatshow.com/ Can't see much work being done that day ! Not sure who engineered that coincidence but I'd like to give them a pat on the back :)

[kiora]

These look cooler.I am not sure how they take off & land?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG0OWz_orK8

[winner69]

Aug operatring stats out

Pretty positive but not as positive as July

Doubt whether F18 will be a record year now ...but should still be 2nd best year ever

[Beagle]

Some really extreme weather in August, more extreme by far than the usual August weather e.g multiple days of dense fog at Auckland shutting flights down left right and center. Expecting Sept stat's to be likewise affected by current fuel crisis but should be clear skies after that :t_up:

[Fatboyj]

You are an optimistic Beagle to see clear skies ahead. Good on ya. Its great how real life events can come out of nowhere who knows what will pop up next.
National landslide win woot.
Trump goes after the rocketman boo.

[Beagle]

You are an optimistic Beagle to see clear skies ahead. Good on ya. Its great how real life events can come out of nowhere who knows what will pop up next.
National landslide win woot.
Trump goes after the rocketman boo.
I think the forward PE of only 9.2 accounts for all known current and perceived risks more than adequately and see the shares as slightly under priced at the current level. I have a high level of confidence regarding the management and board and you've got to "put them" on the line now and again and be optimistic about something...all companies face challenges and risks mate :)

[Beagle]

Aviation fuel situation improving http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11925083

[winner69]

From those stats yesterday AIR won't be making more money from long haul v last year

Competition still prevails?

[BlackPeter]

Aviation fuel situation improving http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11925083

Can't say the pictures give much confidence ... so it is really just one more than 30 years old steel pipe buried in corrosive mud which stands between highly inflammable aviation fuel and the environment? And they are welding in the mud - and the connections are supposed to be like new afterwards?

But that's probably a discussion for some other thread ...

[winner69]

Making heaps more domestically though

[Raz]

From those stats yesterday AIR won't be making more money from long haul v last year

Competition still prevails?

I sense softening demand..my main AIR flights have no/limited competition for most of this year. My AIR long haul flights have not been full to LAX anytime this year vs last year always full. Also empty premium space seats between passengers at the the front of domestic flights to CH to AKL for the last two months..I fly koru hour so expect all seats to be full...this even includes the period of canceled flights over the past week....unusual.

[Beagle]

Can't say the pictures give much confidence ... so it is really just one more than 30 years old steel pipe buried in corrosive mud which stands between highly inflammable aviation fuel and the environment? And they are welding in the mud - and the connections are supposed to be like new afterwards?

But that's probably a discussion for some other thread ...

Yes...quite right, probably best for discussion in some environment protection thread if you want to start one in the off market section. For those that haven't seen the pictures and are vaguely interested http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/images-show-digger-to-blame-for-rupture-refining-nz/ar-AAsko1x?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp

[iceman]

From those stats yesterday AIR won't be making more money from long haul v last year

Competition still prevails?

I have done 7 long haul (one way) trips on AIR NZ so far this year. Every single time the Business Premier has been 100% full and Premium Economy all but full. It has been quite surprising and I know that quite a proportion of the seats has been purchased late and at high prices. Flights have been to/from both South and North America. They seem to be doing very well on those routes.

[Raz]

I have done 7 long haul (one way) trips on AIR NZ so far this year. Every single time the Business Premier has been 100% full and Premium Economy all but full. It has been quite surprising and I know that quite a proportion of the seats has been purchased late and at high prices. Flights have been to/from both South and North America. They seem to be doing very well on those routes.

To get a real idea on long haul I get out of my Business class seat and walk the entire plane..economy is your best gauge as all PE and business class are filled up with upgrades regardless...does not necessarily reflect paid up seats...I go to LAX return monthly.

[TheHunter]

Lets stick to discussing Air NZ here & not # of personal trips and in what seat.... bears no resemblance on overall company performance whatsoever...

[kizame]

Lets stick to discussing Air NZ here & not # of personal trips and in what seat.... bears no resemblance on overall company performance whatsoever...

They are personal observations,which I would have thought were very relevant here,They are talking about air NZ planes. If you want to observe how a listed retailer is doing stand in or outside the shop for a while to guage traffic/same thing eh.They seem also to be frequent users.

[Raz]

They are personal observations,which I would have thought were very relevant here,They are talking about air NZ planes. If you want to observe how a listed retailer is doing stand in or outside the shop for a while to guage traffic/same thing eh.They seem also to be frequent users.

Thanks for that, to the others it really comes down to what you want to read..no one except the mod is a sensor here...and you choose what you want to read and how you react. Those with their egos unleashed never get far around here...they should save themselves the effort.

[Xerof]

don't forget the entire travelling public sector were effectively grounded, by command from the major shareholder - that would account for at least all of the middle seats on almost any flight

[Beagle]

Lets stick to discussing Air NZ here & not # of personal trips and in what seat.... bears no resemblance on overall company performance whatsoever...

I am struggling to think of any other company on the NZX that provides monthly operating data both by sales, sales type and yield and I think we are very fortunate indeed that the ongoing operating environment is so clearly articulated by AIR. It wasn't always this way so I think we should consider ourselves extremely fortunate that the company is so forthcoming.

On another subject on reviewing this http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/digger-driver-behind-aucklands-fuel-crisis-photos-show/ar-AAsl2bJ?ocid=spartandhp I would have thought the landowner has a prima facie case to answer for liability here. I hope they have a large public liability insurance policy as I can see a very strong chance that litigation won't be far away for very substantial damages by multiple parties affected.

[winner69]

Always good to hear from flyers who walk the length of the plane .....often I don't get the chance as I'm stopped half way up to the front.

Anyway the stats show that over July/August -


Short haul (domestic and trans-Tasman) AIR flew 6.6% more passengers (about 100,000 more) than last year and banked about 10% more in revenues - bloody amazing

Long haul AIR flew about the same number of passengers as last year but revenues were down about 1%/2% - just OK, maybe baddish




So making zillions more than last year flying close to home but just hanging in there on the long haul routes ....but overall probably making more than last year

[ace5715]

Flew back from San Fran this morning and the flight was 100% full from what I could see.

[Fatboyj]

As a proud shareholder I'll be flying London next year 1st time on AIR, giving skycouch a go. And encourage everyone I know to fly AIR, because they're currently the best international airline and always will be.

[hardt]

As a proud shareholder I'll be flying London next year 1st time on AIR, giving skycouch a go. And encourage everyone I know to fly AIR, because they're currently the best international airline and always will be.

Have you flown Qatar?

[BlackPeter]

As a proud shareholder I'll be flying London next year 1st time on AIR, giving skycouch a go. And encourage everyone I know to fly AIR, because they're currently the best international airline and always will be.

AIR is not bad, however - have you ever used another airline? Try Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Cathy Pacific for the long haul - and maybe Nicki Air (in Europe) for the short distance before you make judgement calls like that.

... or is AIR just your next crypto currency (ramp as ramp can)?

[Fatboyj]

AIR is not bad, however - have you ever used another airline? Try Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Cathy Pacific for the long haul - and maybe Nicki Air (in Europe) for the short distance before you make judgement calls like that.

... or is AIR just your next crypto currency (ramp as ramp can)?

Ha you know all about ramping mate. And looks like sarcasm (as well as other references) goes right over your head.

Yea I've flow them all, AIR only to oz and they are always top notch. Now that I'm a share holder it will be a good experience flying very long haul with one airline. And I did have them stuff up the skycouch seating but they sorted that in a first class manner.
Emirates has in the past been the best experience flying to London. A380 is such a great plane.

[Zaphod]

Ha you know all about ramping mate. And looks like sarcasm (as well as other references) goes right over your head.

Yea I've flow them all, AIR only to oz and they are always top notch. Now that I'm a share holder it will be a good experience flying very long haul with one airline. And I did have them stuff up the skycouch seating but they sorted that in a first class manner.
Emirates has in the past been the best experience flying to London. A380 is such a great plane.

Hard to beat QR in J for $5K LHR ret. Air NZ haven't had specials like that, but then again they haven't been banned from other country's airspace before.

Even as a AIR holder, that was hard to turn down being around 50% of AIR's special to LHR via LAX or code-shared via HKG.

[Fatboyj]

This is business class? Great price for that. I've only booked one way to London, hearing good things about Qatar could give them a go.

And Z are you the same Z in the GPforums?

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11925941
Thirsty storage tanks will be getting their first batch of 7 million liters after testing is completed Monday evening.

[Beagle]

Fuel flowing freely should fuel the share price :) Now lets get on with the recriminations. Who are AIR going to sue for damages ?
Disc: Added a few more this morning after a nice bounce of the 100 day MA support line last week. Fundamentally a good hold and technically they look well supported, although TA experts will have their own theories no doubt but I reckon a couple of bounces now off the 100 day MA support line is a good indicator and I note U.S. airlines stocks had a very good week last week.

Anyone else on here going to the annual meeting on Thursday ?

[see weed]

Fuel flowing freely should fuel the share price :) Now lets get on with the recriminations. Who are AIR going to sue for damages ?
Disc: Added a few more this morning after a nice bounce of the 100 day MA support line last week. Fundamentally a good hold and technically they look well supported, although TA experts will have their own theories no doubt but I reckon a couple of bounces now off the 100 day MA support line is a good indicator and I note U.S. airlines stocks had a very good week last week.

Anyone else on here going to the annual meeting on Thursday ?
Could go if any spare time.

[forest]

Roger I will be there, TIL and AIR AGM's walking distance apart with enough time between the meetings to check out the boat show.
Should be a good day, see you on Thursday. Forest

[forest]

Anyone else on here going to the annual meeting on Thursday ?

Roger I will be there, TIL and AIR AGM's walking distance apart with enough time between the meetings to check out the boat show.
Should be a good day, see you on Thursday. Forest

[see weed]

Anyone else on here going to the annual meeting on Thursday ?

Roger I will be there, TIL and AIR AGM's walking distance apart with enough time between the meetings to check out the boat show.
Should be a good day, see you on Thursday. Forest
AIR paid me about $80K Last fin. year which includes divs. The biggest surprise was the IRD also gave me $6k refund. So am thinking I better go to agm for a cup of tea:D

[Beagle]

AIR paid me about $80K Last fin. year which includes divs. The biggest surprise was the IRD also gave me $6k refund. So am thinking I better go to agm for a cup of tea:D

LOL mate. I'm putting in some big hours at work so I can have Thursday afternoon off for the AGM and the boat show. See you guys there.

[Raz]

AIR paid me about $80K Last fin. year which includes divs. The biggest surprise was the IRD also gave me $6k refund. So am thinking I better go to agm for a cup of tea:D

A refund..how nice...IRD had a full cut of my trading gains on AIR last financial year....our majority shareholder does very well out of it all...if my meeting finishes on time I will be at the AGM...don't know if I could afford a boat thou :-)

[Snow Leopard]

Price of Singapore Jet continues to trend up. Current price [I have] is $66.90 a sip.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Now at $71.15. That is off the right hand side of AIR's fuel sensitivity chart (in the FY presentation).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Now at $71.15. That is off the right hand side of AIR's fuel sensitivity chart (in the FY presentation).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

That's terrible news - not quite of the chart but they might need to add more labels nextbtime they use it

They were forecasting fuel to be $53m more than F17 (the $880m)

Jeez that chart says it could be $50m/$60m higher than that again unless the fuel price drops

Well that's the likely increases revenues almost gone

Maybe lower profits in F18 v F17 and v expectations

Might know more tomorrow

[Beagle]

Fuel costs are subject to collars below the current prevailing price and they are 80% hedged for the FY18 year. Oil could be spiking for any number of reasons at present including the number of U.S. refineries coming back online or the geopolitical tension with North Korea. The other quote to keep in mind is what our esteemed leader said in last year's conference call "oil prices and yield are inextricably linked".

[Raz]

Fuel costs are subject to collars below the current prevailing price and they are 80% hedged for the FY18 year. Oil could be spiking for any number of reasons at present including the number of U.S. refineries coming back online or the geopolitical tension with North Korea. The other quote to keep in mind is what our esteemed leader said in last year's conference call "oil prices and yield are inextricably linked".

A decent hedge policy so see no real concern at this point.

[Brain]

Is that a double top that has formed on Air's chart ? Maybe one of the T A guys can advise us.

[winner69]

A decent hedge policy so see no real concern at this point.

But that chart is titled 'Fuel Cost Sensitivity' - Impact on expected F18 fuel bill of $880m at different fuel prices inclusive of hedging

If fuel remains at US$71 (off the chart as PT points out) then fuel cold be $60m/$70m more than expected (budgeted)

[Beagle]

As mentioned yesterday, yield and fuel prices are inextricably linked. Let me unpack that a bit for those that don't know. Lots of foreign carriers don't hedge at all. For example, many Chinese owned airlines are forbidden to hedge, lets face it the cost of hedging is quite high. As fuel moves higher the intensity of competitive airfares slackens off and net yield increases.
I have maintained for quite some time that AIR is more competitive with its modern fuel efficient fleet when Oil is $70 than when it is dramatically cheaper than that as some long established airlines like Qantas for example are still flying a lot of older fuel hungry but less capital intensive planes around. QAN will get hurt from this far more than AIR who will shortly have 11, (count em) really fuel efficient Dreamliner aircraft flying. If oil stay's where it is I expect yield to go up about 2-3% over time which on over $4 billion of passenger sales recovers the extra fuel costs and the hedging gains will be cream on top of that !

[Robomo]

As mentioned yesterday, yield and fuel prices are inextricably linked. Let me unpack that a bit for those that don't know. Lots of foreign carriers don't hedge at all. For example, many Chinese owned airlines are forbidden to hedge, lets face it the cost of hedging is quite high. As fuel moves higher the intensity of competitive airfares slackens off and net yield increases.
I have maintained for quite some time that AIR is more competitive with its modern fuel efficient fleet when Oil is $70 than when it is dramatically cheaper than that as some long established airlines like Qantas for example are still flying a lot of older fuel hungry but less capital intensive planes around. QAN will get hurt from this far more than AIR who will shortly have 11, (count em) really fuel efficient Dreamliner aircraft flying. If oil stay's where it is I expect yield to go up about 2-3% over time which on over $4 billion of passenger sales recovers the extra fuel costs and the hedging gains will be cream on top of that !

Don't forget the A320/321 neo (new engine option) aircraft that will start arriving next year with a 15% fuel burn reduction on the current A320 ceo (current engine option). These neo aircraft will eventually replace all 14 A320 ceo's that Air NZ are using to fly the trans-tasman and Island routes.

[Beagle]

Don't forget the A320/321 neo (new engine option) aircraft that will start arriving next year with a 15% fuel burn reduction on the current A320 ceo (current engine option). These neo aircraft will eventually replace all 14 A320 ceo's that Air NZ are using to fly the trans-tasman and Island routes.

Good point. A good question for today's annual meeting would be to ask if AIR are happy that these new engines have had their reliability problems sorted out.

[babymonster]

My guess is it went well judging by the sp

[Robomo]

Good point. A good question for today's annual meeting would be to ask if AIR are happy that these new engines have had their reliability problems sorted out.

Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.

[Beagle]

Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.

Yes the hound followed through on that question and I am happy with the reply and yes there was a very good confident tone at the meeting. I spoke with Chris Luxon after the meeting and am more than happy with answers to other questions we discussed. I thanked him for his hard work and for having the balls to get rid of Virgin. He seemed to really appreciate that. Onward and upward. He seems happy at AIR and relishing the challenge of driving further solid growth. Company is happy with first quarters trading performance as you would have heard online. Happy holder but less than impressed with the afternoon tea.

[see weed]

Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.
Yes, that was Beagle asking about the outboard motors and it all sounds good. Also noticed Beagle had Chris Luxon cornered at the after meeting Cup o tea time chin wagging and shaking hands all round. Good meeting over all, but could do with a bit more food and parking. Ellerslie racecourse would be a good venue next time. Forest, we lost you at the tea party, where did you go?

[Beagle]

Good to see you there mate. Its no secret that I think Chris Luxon is a very clever guy and we are very fortunate to have a man of his caliber at the helm :)

Airpoints update to members.
Hello Mr Beagle,
Now that Refining New Zealand’s fuel supply pipeline to Auckland has been restored, fuel has begun to flow once again to Auckland Airport and jet fuel allocations for airlines have been raised to 80 percent of their usual volumes.
I’m pleased to advise that this means our schedule is now operating largely as normal as we head into the busy school holiday period.
While we don’t anticipate the need for further flight cancellations, until we’re able to uplift 100 percent of our usual fuel volume we cannot rule out the possibility of occasional refuelling stops. We’ll continue to monitor the need for this on a daily basis and should your flight be required to undertake a refuelling stop we will be in touch with you directly to let you know.
On behalf of the airline, I’d like to say thank you to everyone who has shown patience and flexibility over the past fortnight. It is greatly appreciated.
Thank you once again and we hope to see you onboard soon.

[Xerof]

you afternoon tea feeders - you are obviously only bronze status. Did you not see the Gold Elite shareholders being ushered to the private room for oysters and champagne



:drool::drool:

kidding

[Beagle]

you afternoon tea feeders - you are obviously only bronze status. Did you not see the Gold Elite shareholders being ushered to the private room for oysters and champagne



:drool::drool:

kidding

We're in good company though because the CEO and Chairman of the board were seen chatting with us bronze status commoners.
Maybe the special treatment was reserved for Knights and their companions as I didn't see Sir John Key mixing and mingling in economy class afterwards.

N.Z. Herald reporting yesterday that fuel supply is back to 100% at Auckland Airport, just in the nick of time for the school holidays, good stuff.

[see weed]

We're in good company though because the CEO and Chairman of the board were seen chatting with us bronze status commoners.
Maybe the special treatment was reserved for Knights and their companions as I didn't see Sir John Key mixing and mingling in economy class afterwards.

N.Z. Herald reporting yesterday that fuel supply is back to 100% at Auckland Airport, just in the nick of time for the school holidays, good stuff.
Sir John was their for a little while then got lost in the crowd. I was quite relieved when C L reassured me there would be no specials over or near NK. :D all round.

[Xerof]

I don't think the beagle sniffed out the hidden word at the bottom of my in-jest post.

All shareholders are equal, it's just that some are more equal than others. I was Gold Elite when I was to-ing and fro-ing to the USA every 3 months for a while in bizzo. It's crushing news to be told you're being demoted to Gold, then Silver, and finally to Bronze when your travel frequency dries up :( On the bright side, we're all still on the winners podium :t_up:

[Beagle]

Hound was so busy on Friday he just about went cross eyed. Fortunately my nose for corporate B.S. is still intact in spite of a thorough workout on Friday in relation to matters I can't discuss on here, (not in any way related to AIR) Yes I missed your hidden word but knew you were speaking in jest :)

[winner69]

If Air New Zealand said they were close to joining up with AIRCOIN the share price would shoot up to $5

I have no idea how AIRCOIN works but any company that mentions 'coin' gets a sudden boost

The times they are a changin'

[Beagle]

Simple change of name for the AirPOINTS scheme to AIRCOIN is all that required and $5 here we come :D

Air tell me their airpoints are just like cash.

[Beagle]

Test your mettle on the longest commercial flight in the world...yikes not for me :eek2: would really put the lag into jet lag. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/news/qatar-airways-auckland-to-doha-what-its-like-to-be-an-economy-passenger-on-the-worlds-longest-flight/ar-AAqUpEB?ocid=spartandhp

[cdonald]

Test your mettle on the longest commercial flight in the world...yikes not for me :eek2: would really put the lag into jet lag. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/news/qatar-airways-auckland-to-doha-what-its-like-to-be-an-economy-passenger-on-the-worlds-longest-flight/ar-AAqUpEB?ocid=spartandhp

Doing this flight next Friday, followed by another one 2 hours later thru to London, will let you know how it go's. Have done most other variations of the trip to London and now look for a more pleasant on ground experience than standing in a usa customs line for an hour each time I transit with Air NZ thru LA

[winner69]

Cynically I wonder if this is pretend stuff with main aim to make more money. Good story though.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97539393/air-new-zealand-reusing-untouched-snacks-pluggingin-grounded-planes

Give AIR some credit though - they have some pretty well thought of people on their Sustainability Council. Sort of suggests they do take sustainability seriously .. but profits still fitRst I fear.


Like the comment about AIR being good at recycling (useless) Prime Minister who was well past his use by date

[Marilyn Munroe]

Cynically I wonder if this is pretend stuff with main aim to make more money. Good story though.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97539393/air-new-zealand-reusing-untouched-snacks-pluggingin-grounded-planes

Give AIR some credit though - they have some pretty well thought of people on their Sustainability Council. Sort of suggests they do take sustainability seriously .. but profits still fitRst I fear.


I wonder if they are using Cavotec equipment to provide ground power.

http://www.cavotec.com/en/your-applications/airports

Cavotec was for a time listed on the NZX as a result of their takeover of Mooring Systems.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[777]

Nothing new in plugging aircraft into terminal power. This has been happening for a number of years. All airlines do the same thing to keep APU use to a minimum. Why it is being reported as something new beats me.

[Beagle]

Cynically I wonder if this is pretend stuff with main aim to make more money. Good story though.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97539393/air-new-zealand-reusing-untouched-snacks-pluggingin-grounded-planes

Give AIR some credit though - they have some pretty well thought of people on their Sustainability Council. Sort of suggests they do take sustainability seriously .. but profits still fitRst I fear.


Like the comment about AIR being good at recycling (useless) Prime Minister who was well past his use by date

Just a lovely feel good public relations exercise designed to boost the image of the airline, save money and enhance its profitability, hence why it gets the hounds paw print of approval :)

[workingdad]

Got a text message before checking in at auck int. this morning that the lounge was high demand and may not be able to allow guests of members in. Bodes well for air nz flights being busy.

[Zaphod]

Got a text message before checking in at auck int. this morning that the lounge was high demand and may not be able to allow guests of members in. Bodes well for air nz flights being busy.

That's a welcome change. Normally you have to wait to get personally rebuffed when turning up to the lounge, which is a bit embarrassing when you're taking a guest. Maybe an alert on the app for PAX booked to travel to/from WLG would be ideal.

Of all the Air NZ lounges, the main WLG Domestic lounge seems to suffer from that the most, although now there are three lounges in WLG (Intl, Dom, and Regional) that situation hopefully has changed.

[Snow Leopard]

I note that
Mr Jones, (Former) Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances
and
Mr Wallace, Chief Revenue Officer

have admitted to selling a couple of hundred thousand shares a piece.

Baa Baa reckons that a nod is as good as wink to a blind horse.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Maybe some easily lead sheep will follow but the market seems to think everything is smelling of roses at present, albeit slightly tainted with the intoxicating smell or freshly burnt aviation fuel fumes, freshly refined and pumped from Marsden point. The hound has noted this week a resurgence of airline stocks in the U.S. and QAN in Australia now trading on a PE of 13.3 vs AIR still slightly less than 10. We seem to be in an environment of stable global growth and ignoring geopolitical uncertainty.
Disc: Hound (fat and gorged) after the last dividend feed, sleeping by the food bowl knowing another juicy dividend will be coming his way in several months time.

[Baa_Baa]

You can lead a blind horse to knowledge, but you can't make it think. Just one small insight noting the big wigs selling into a topping cyclical. When all the bears are gone and there are only bulls left, with a beagle in charge, maybe it's time to reflect on the words of the Paper Tiger.

Sheep on that.
💤🐏

[Beagle]

If you imagine that a very simple strategy of following executives sales decisions as the one and only defining investment strategy as though that is some secret formula to success then I am sad for you Baa Baa.
You're comments may have more credibility in the Scales thread which is a predominantly a cycle stock in nature but is trading on a PE of 17 :eek2:
AIR looks very, very cheap compared to QAN, has a more modern and fuel efficient fleet, much less gearing and a vastly better track record, (delivered positive EPS throughout the GFC not multi billion losses like QAN) Who cares if a couple of exec's have a spending problem and can't afford to live of their bloated salaries, certainly not me.
AIR PE 10
Delta PE 10.4
American Airlines PE 12.4
Qantas PE 13.3
Southwest Airlines 17.3

Airlines are limited to a PE of 10 right ? Yeah...NAH.
I follow fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trends and formulate my investment thesis based on history, management's capabilities, planned growth, monthly operating stat's including year to date information, fleet update requirements, capex spend and a wide range of other factors including fully imputed dividend yield over my investment time horizon. What one or two executives do is right down the very bottom of a lot of other factors. If sum want to blindly follow executives and sell that's there prerogative (and I wish them the best of luck with that) but I for one will always think for myself.

[Baa_Baa]

If you imagine that a very simple strategy of following executives sales decisions as the one and only defining investment strategy as though that is some secret formula to success then I am sad for you Baa Baa.

You really think that, then I'm sad for you too Beagle.

[Snow Leopard]

http://papertiger.asia/images/over-eyes.jpg

[winner69]

Maybe some easily lead sheep will follow but the market seems to think everything is smelling of roses at present, albeit slightly tainted with the intoxicating smell or freshly burnt aviation fuel fumes, freshly refined and pumped from Marsden Point...

Just put AIR (as a proxy for all airline stocks) on my 'sin stock' list with a ranking of 6 out of 10 (Sky City has a 9)

But then as AIR are only providing a service in meeting the insatiable desire of humans to fly everywhere I suppose it's really a ranking / indictment of humans themselves.

A member of AIR's Sustainability Council even said that airfares need to at least double to discourage air travel .....with the proceeds going to carbon offsets and into investment in under developed countries (or something like that)

[barleeni]

PT / Baa Baa..... im calling you out. In Rogers defence when pushed he lists the reasons why he sees AIR as a good company / investment.


Would you care PT / Baa Baa to let us know why you see AIR as not a good invetment? I think its only fair that you justify your disdain?

[Beagle]

Those with a negative view were extremely vocal this time last year. The share price has since doubled plus 21 cents of fully imputed dividends. I guess some people are busy licking their wounds wishing they had invested :p
For those who have short memories. I repeat. I spoke with Chris Luxon personally after the annual meeting on 28 September 2017. He is very confident indeed about the outlook. If you don't believe me, ask seeweed, he was there and heard what Chris had to say.

[Snow Leopard]

PT / Baa Baa..... im calling you out. In Rogers defence when pushed he lists the reasons why he sees AIR as a good company / investment.


Would you care PT / Baa Baa to let us know why you see AIR as not a good invetment? I think its only fair that you justify your disdain?

Start with this post (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=637996&viewfull=1#post637996) and then read forward through all of my posts until you get to the cute cat picture.

Then, maybe, you can form a considered judgement.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

For a clearer picture of one's propensity to put their paws over their eyes please start with post #3 on page 1 of this thread in 2004 and post #22 on page 2.
Filter everything subsequent to that with that natural bias and one may understand another's position should they choose to bother to do so. There was an even far more enlightening post in the very early days from a poster that has been deleted.
I actually like post #1 on page 1, extract Has Air NZ clawed it's way back into consideration? The tiger and the hound can both relate to claws :) Yes it has through superb management.

In today's press one fund manager is heard to pontificate and wonder if the NZX50 has got too expensive on a PE of 22. (I presume he means trailing PE).
It probably is very fully priced but I own very few stocks on that PE with the exception of ones with outstanding growth prospects like ATM.
Here we have a superbly managed company, well placed with a modern fuel efficient fleet, outstanding proven management and strong fully imputed dividend yield on a forward PE of approx. 9.5. Some will never be able to see the wood for the trees because all they see is the negative...

I reiterate yet again, Chris Luxon is extremely positive about the outlook.

[see weed]

Those with a negative view were extremely vocal this time last year. The share price has since doubled plus 21 cents of fully imputed dividends. I guess some people are busy licking their wounds wishing they had invested :p
For those who have short memories. I repeat. I spoke with Chris Luxon personally after the annual meeting on 28 September 2017. He is very confident indeed about the outlook. If you don't believe me, ask seeweed, he was there and heard what Chris had to say.
Yeah, all good and positive. No planned flights over or near NK:).

[Beagle]

Yeah, all good and positive. No planned flights over or near NK:).

Quite apart from the really sound fundmental's mate, its also now looking very promising from a technical analysis perspective. Having bounced nicely off the 100 day MA twice in recent weeks I've noted a breakout above the 30 day moving average late last week confirmed by trading on Friday and again today.

Looks like we're very well positioned :)

[see weed]

Quite apart from the really sound fundmental's mate, its also now looking very promising from a technical analysis perspective. Having bounced nicely off the 100 day MA twice in recent weeks I've noted a breakout above the 30 day moving average late last week confirmed by trading on Friday and again today.

Looks like we're very well positioned :)
That's right, but having a little breather from AIR at the mo. Stocking up on ATM, HLG and a bit of NZO this week but will get back to AIR in Feb. for next div:).

[winner69]

new Dreamliner for AIR

Hope I never fly in it - what an awful colour - be sick before takeoff I reckon

https://twitter.com/FlyAirNZ/status/917145088353955840

[Fatboyj]

Wonder if this will fly to London via LA next year. That will be a treat.

[Beagle]

new Dreamliner for AIR

Hope I never fly in it - what an awful colour - be sick before takeoff I reckon

https://twitter.com/FlyAirNZ/status/917145088353955840

That's just the night time soothing ambient lighting mate, another one of the special features of these new technology aircraft.

seeweed - You and couta1 are playing the same game I reckon, looking for a pullback and look to get in for the next dividend. The problem is I reckon you're both odds on favorite to be paying more than $3.50 by February 2018. The market is saying they're worth that now. Be a tough pill to swallow if they were $4 then wouldn't it :D

[winner69]

That's just the night time soothing ambient lighting mate, another one of the special features of these new technology aircraft.

seeweed - You and couta1 are playing the same game I reckon, looking for a pullback and look to get in for the next dividend. The problem is I reckon you're both odds on favorite to be paying more than $3.50 by February 2018. The market is saying they're worth that now. Be a tough pill to swallow if they were $4 then wouldn't it :D

That ambient lighting makes me sick ..generally been greenish when I'm there. I hate having them trying to fool me into thinking it's night time when I know the sun is shining outside and there's awesome views of the Gobi Desert or the Himalayans to see.

[Beagle]

That ambient lighting makes me sick ..generally been greenish when I'm there. I hate having them trying to fool me into thinking it's night time when I know the sun is shining outside and there's awesome views of the Gobi Desert or the Himalayans to see.

I guess they have their way of programming it to suit the flight / meal schedule and have to consider what the majority of people might want at any point in time. If you get a upper level Mercedes-Benz you can call your own shots and dial up your own choice of ambient lighting from a palate of 64 colors...a choice to suit the mood of every occasion.. No guarantee it'll withstand the rigors of traversing the Gobi desert or Himalayan mountains though :) Look at it this way mate, you're a fortunate soul to have seen such sights no matter which colour ambient lighting was showing inside. The glass is definitely half full

[Jantar]

That ambient lighting makes me sick ..generally been greenish when I'm there. I hate having them trying to fool me into thinking it's night time when I know the sun is shining outside and there's awesome views of the Gobi Desert or the Himalayans to see. What is worse is that their timing of dimming the lights etc makes jet lag a lot worse. The best way to minimise the effect of jet lag is to try and sleep when it is dark outside and stay awake when it is light.

[winner69]

What is worse is that their timing of dimming the lights etc makes jet lag a lot worse. The best way to minimise the effect of jet lag is to try and sleep when it is dark outside and stay awake when it is light.

Totally agree mate

Leave London 10pm to Hong Kong they try to fool you its night time almost all the way to Hong Koing and then after an hour or so transit they try to fool you its night time again all the way to Auckland (get breakfast just before you get back). Seems even worse those midnight flights out of Auckland through Hong Kong arriving mid afternoon London (just after breakfast)

So they pack almost 24 hours 'night time' into a 30 hour trip ... I cant cope with that

All to provide minimal service


At least on the older planes you can pull the blinds up to see amazing Pacific sunrises ....and get told off big time for doing that sort of thing.

[see weed]

That's just the night time soothing ambient lighting mate, another one of the special features of these new technology aircraft.

seeweed - You and couta1 are playing the same game I reckon, looking for a pullback and look to get in for the next dividend. The problem is I reckon you're both odds on favorite to be paying more than $3.50 by February 2018. The market is saying they're worth that now. Be a tough pill to swallow if they were $4 then wouldn't it :D
I don't mind paying $4 to get the div. as long as a2 is at $8 plus div by then:).

[Beagle]

Totally agree mate

Leave London 10pm to Hong Kong they try to fool you its night time almost all the way to Hong Koing and then after an hour or so transit they try to fool you its night time again all the way to Auckland (get breakfast just before you get back). Seems even worse those midnight flights out of Auckland through Hong Kong arriving mid afternoon London (just after breakfast)

So they pack almost 24 hours 'night time' into a 30 hour trip ... I cant cope with that

All to provide minimal service


At least on the older planes you can pull the blinds up to see amazing Pacific sunrises ....and get told off big time for doing that sort of thing.

Fact is AIR are on record several times reporting very high satisfaction level's with their new Dreamliner's and these highly efficient aircraft are one of the major drivers behind recent CASK reductions so they're really good for top line and bottom line growth. Naturally they're never going to keep everyone happy, all of the time but you conveniently overlook better air quality, better humidity, bigger windows, lower effective cabin altitude of 6,000 ft compared to 8,000 ft for older generation aircraft which is much kinder on the body, especially the heart work rate which is good for older folks travelling long haul. Evidence and feedback suggests jet lag is materially better with these aircraft than older generation ones. More here http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787/by-design/#/passengers

[Snow Leopard]

I note that
Mr Jones, (Former) Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances
and
Mr Wallace, Chief Revenue Officer

have admitted to selling a couple of hundred thousand shares a piece.

Baa Baa reckons that a nod is as good as wink to a blind horse.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Well this MUST be the Top then:

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/308474

I note that the new Mr Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances was not willing to buy all the shares that the former Mr Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances sold.

What do you think Baa Baa?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Well this MUST be the Top then:

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/308474

I note that the new Mr Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances was not willing to buy all the shares that the former Mr Chief Strategy, Networks and Alliances sold.

What do you think Baa Baa?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Why bark twice about the same thing, can't be bothered https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=beagle+sleeping&&view=detail&mid=D576036A0F24EF3130DCD576036A0F24EF3130DC&rvsmid=6FC2E555F6F7486CD6716FC2E555F6F7486CD671&FORM=VDQVAP P.S. That beagle beside the food bowl is me waiting for the next juicy dividend :)...but even in my half sleepy state I note that Stephen Jones is the former chief strategy officer, leaving the company and sold his shares for $3.37 so he's lost out in more ways than one !

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1710/S00227/air-new-zealands-new-look-dreamliner-touches-down.htm New Dreamliner with new configuration arrives. #10 to join the fleet.

[Snow Leopard]

Why bark twice about the same thing...

It is actually a different thing.


...http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1710/S00227/air-new-zealands-new-look-dreamliner-touches-down.htm New Dreamliner with new configuration arrives. #10 to join the fleet.

You barked about that one yesterday as well.

[Posted from the comfort of the fresh laundry pile]

[Beagle]

Quite right, I'm tired.... that's enough barking for the day, have a good evening :)

[Snow Leopard]

Moving the discussion that got as far as this post on the ATM thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited&p=687959&viewfull=1#post687959) too a more appropriate place.

Taking the 22-Feb-2016, the day before Qantas announced their HY results and the first of a series of buy backs and going forward until today, 10-Oct-2017 and the total dividend adjusted returns for Qantas amounts to a

63.1% gain

and for AIR the equivalent figure is a

63.9% gain

Spooky eh possums?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Your tax situation may affect these figures.

[Beagle]

That could be a simple coincidence but based on that evidence you could form the preliminary view that in this case the QAN buy-backs appear to have had little impact on the SP with the caveat that you'd need to look at the relative growth in the EPS of those two companies over that timeframe. I would be interested to know if there's been any studies done on the buy-back subject with a wider representation of anecdotal evidence.

I'm happy to concede that a $40m buy-back being less than one day's volume traded is very unlikely to have a material effect on helping the SP of ATM gain altitude, (not that it appears to need any help) but what it would do would be to send the market a useful signal that the directors still believed the shares are a compelling investment proposition for the company itself to buy-back notwithstanding the recent meteoric rise. This might give shareholders grounds not to sell, or to continue buying / holding so perhaps the real value of the buy-back is the downstream effect on shareholders propensity to own the shares thereby providing indirect further support for the share price ?

[Raz]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11931831

Good for me a shareholder although not so great as a customer...


say what they like via their PR this is Emirates retrenching..

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11931831

Good for me a shareholder although not so great as a customer...


say what they like via their PR this is Emirates retrenching..

Yeap AIR have seen them off. By my count that's about 7 different airline retrenchments in the last 12 months. No wonder Chris Luxon is felling confident.
(For the life of me I could never understand having 4 A380's in Auckland at the same time).

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932087

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11931733

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932150

A little peak into Raz's usual digs. Feeling a little sorry for Raz, must be a terrible conflict of interest. On one hand those nice showers and gold embossed trim and service level's going but on the other more returns for AIR shareholders of which he is one. Talk about a conflict of interest !

[peat]

Thats a hat-trick Roger!

[Marilyn Munroe]

News items from NZ Herald[/url]

Item below suggests sand state airlines are at a cross-roads;

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2017/10/12/emirates-etihad/

My disappointment as a tax payer is John Key and his successor, the Double Dipper from Dipton, have likely lost the opportunity to sell our share of Cullen Airlines to Etihad for silly money.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

Thats a hat-trick Roger!

lol couldn't help myself, feeling sorry for Raz having to "slum it" now in AIR's business class. Has some pretty pictures of A380's in that link though...suppose its allowable for AIR shareholders to dream of one day flying first class on Emirates A380 to London, have to be through Dubai now though.

[Oliver Mander]

lol couldn't help myself, feeling sorry for Raz having to "slum it" now in AIR's business class. Has some pretty pictures of A380's in that link though...suppose its allowable for AIR shareholders to dream of one day flying first class on Emirates A380 to London, have to be through Dubai now though.

The hound can still go on an Emirate A380 first class out of Christchurch of course...having to slum it on Jetstar to fly AKL - CHC is only a slight turn-off... :-)

[Beagle]

I rather knaw a paw off than fly Jetstar again. Happy to fly to London via Dubai...I can think of some nice kennels to stay in for a stopover for a few days. https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Tallest+Building+in+Dubai&FORM=IRIBEP Just gotta get Mrs Beagle keen...

[Joshuatree]

This may help you in some tiny way Roger
My Life as a Dog - FULL MOVIE - YouTube (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjK8ZTThe3WAhVEu7wKHfqaDQoQtwIIJTAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dxf vERW-0cPU&usg=AOvVaw37KPpYcN7vinEqH-3HyeIL)

[Xerof]

(For the life of me I could never understand having 4 A380's in Auckland at the same time).
My understanding of this rather peculiar situation was that costs to overnight their aircraft in Australia were so prohibitive, it was cheaper all round for them to add the extra service to NZ, ex Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne to park up during the day then leave again at 5.45pm to those aforementioned airports, pick up the crowds there, then north to Alask.....Dubai. Rumour had it that even if they flew completely empty, it was worth it NOT to o'nite in AUST. I flew to Dubai biz on one of these circuits, and coming back from Sydney to AKL, the ratio of stewardesses to passengers was about 3 to 1. Terrific service, even if a little overwhelming

[777]

My understanding of this rather peculiar situation was that costs to overnight their aircraft in Australia were so prohibitive, it was cheaper all round for them to add the extra service to NZ, ex Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne to park up during the day then leave again at 5.45pm to those aforementioned airports, pick up the crowds there, then north to Alask.....Dubai. Rumour had it that even if they flew completely empty, it was worth it NOT to o'nite in AUST. I flew to Dubai biz on one of these circuits, and coming back from Sydney to AKL, the ratio of stewardesses to passengers was about 3 to 1. Terrific service, even if a little overwhelming


Correct but they arrived in Australian ports in the mornings which fitted in nicely to do Tasman return flights during the day and then fly back to Dubai in the Australian evenings. No parking at Auckland required. It will be interesting what they will do after the change over.

[Xerof]

Thanks for clarifying Triple Seven, whats that old adage - planes on the ground cost money, better in the AIR with bums on seats

[Raz]

The hound can still go on an Emirate A380 first class out of Christchurch of course...having to slum it on Jetstar to fly AKL - CHC is only a slight turn-off... :-)

oi oi is someone having a dig :-)

Yes they highlighted this point to me in an email...they know where their key NZ clients are based :-) Seriously not worried currently... actually in London enjoying unseasonally warm weather and admiring tonight the christmas lights on oxford street..tomorrow attend a good EPL game...have to live in the moment.

worry is like interest paid before it due :-)

[iceman]

This is great news and something I've been saying since AIR started flying to Argentina. They have a huge opportunity with Asian tourists visiting South America https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/argentina-seeks-boost-air-connections-china-through-nz-b-208785

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267772.pdf
Solid result for the month considering the fuel supply challenge. Credit to the team for scrambling with their fuel logistics to minimize disruption to passengers.
Revenue per available seat kilometer group wide year to date excl impact of foreign exchange is up 2.1%.
Looking at those numbers for Sept you'd almost be tempted to ask what fuel supply problem ?
"Without in any way wanting to minimize their prospects of cost recovery against any potential liable party"

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267772.pdf
Solid result for the month considering the fuel supply challenge. Credit to the team for scrambling with their fuel logistics to minimize disruption to passengers.
Revenue per available seat kilometer group wide year to date excl impact of foreign exchange is up 2.1%.
Looking at those numbers for Sept you'd almost be tempted to ask what fuel supply problem ?
"Without in any way wanting to minimize their prospects of cost recovery against any potential liable party"

Short haul going well while long haul revenues are in decline v last year

Overall revenue growth shrinking month by month - like August growth was lower than July and September lower than August. YTD revenue growth now about 4%/5%

How’s fuel costs going I wonder - still about us$70?

[suse]

I rather knaw a paw off than fly Jetstar again. ...

+1
Am totally going to miss hopping the ditch on the A380 while propping up the bar

[winner69]

AIR still on track for second highest ever profit in FY18

Somewhere between $526m and $800m

Pretty good

[couta1]

AIR still on track for second highest ever profit in FY18

Somewhere between $526m and $800m

Pretty good Pretty good but all priced in, not many value stocks currently on the NZX, most heavily priced.

[Beagle]

Short haul going well while long haul revenues are in decline v last year

Overall revenue growth shrinking month by month - like August growth was lower than July and September lower than August. YTD revenue growth now about 4%/5%

How’s fuel costs going I wonder - still about us$70?

Spot Singapore JetA1 is probably around there at present but AIR have collars that will come into play in terms of hedging if it goes higher from here whereas many other airlines don't use hedging. I tend to simply focus on the macro picture and as mentioned RASK is up 2.1%. The key thing here is revenue per available seat kilometer and with slightly lower loads in Sept (sometimes flying empty to reposition to take on fuel load elsewhere) I think this is a credible result in the circumstances. Tehy'll have yet another code 2 (denser premium seat configuration) Dreamliner delivered soon so CASK will keep coming down.
A320 and A321 Neo's start arriving next year which keeps the momentum on CASK to the downside and updates the fleet to an even more modern fuel efficient standard. Good solid well managed business's trading on an undemanding PE of less than 10 aren't exactly in over abundance on the NZX and all that fresh incoming Kiwisaver funds money each month has to go somewhere... Continues to look like a good value hold compared to its peers and shareholders are being paid very well to wait for further growth unlike most other airlines who have pathetic dividend yields.

[Snow Leopard]

Of course hedging just gives you short term benefit in terms of reduced exposure to fuel price volatility at the expense of a greater overall price for your fuel.

If you only pay 20c on the $ increase (or decrease) this year you generally pay the other 80c down the track.

You can get fancy with this stuff but AIR appear to have paid an extra $4.26 per barrel in 1Q in hedging costs (but currently this reduces as the year goes on).

International competition continues apace with the opposition acquiring lots of fuel-efficient planes of their own and running their companies as well as any other.

Fortunately AIR has only half a competitor on the domestic front, but that could change...

And of course, at the end of the day, it is just another flying airline :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUTBYI6rcxs

[Fatboyj]

Promotional ad for Tiger Airways?

[winner69]

bloody bad enough sir john put his nose in the air trough but doing the same at the anz is enough to want you change banks

[couta1]

bloody bad enough sir john put his nose in the air trough but doing the same at the anz is enough to want you change banks Looks after number 1 alright, pity he didn't have the balls to stick to his word in 2013 when he said publicly he would override the ComCom if they ruled against Chorus.

[winner69]

Looks after number 1 alright, pity he didn't have the balls to stick to his word in 2013 when he said publicly he would override the ComCom if they ruled against Chorus.

We need to show respect to those punters who thinks he’s the bees knees and not be too nasty about John....don’t we Couts.

[Beagle]

AIR still on track for second highest ever profit in FY18

Somewhere between $526m and $800m

Pretty good
Yeap, all good, no worries. Sir John will be Chairman of AIR in a few years, mark my words. Couta1, Politicians will unfortunately sometimes corner themselves into positions they have to wiggle out of, politics is politics and business is business.

[Clints]

Yeap, all good, no worries. Sir John will be Chairman of AIR in a few years, mark my words. Couta1, Politicians will unfortunately sometimes corner themselves into positions they have to wiggle out of, politics is politics and business is business.
True, but Sir John was a successful businessman before a becoming a successful politician.

[Snow Leopard]

...politics is politics and business is business.

Hah! Obviously you have never dealt with any of the companies I have been involved with!

I see Qantas have a new fuel efficient toy (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/98011304/qantas-dreamliner-7879s-to-fly-brisbane-to-new-york-via-los-angeles)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Fatboyj]

And Sir John is getting his PhD soon, from good ol canty uni. Soon we wont know what the hell to call him? Sir Dr John Key PhD.
Good on him he made a plan for himself and didn't it just work out the way he wanted it.

[Beagle]

Hah! Obviously you have never dealt with any of the companies I have been involved with!

I see Qantas have a new fuel efficient toy (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/98011304/qantas-dreamliner-7879s-to-fly-brisbane-to-new-york-via-los-angeles)


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Good they finally have one, AIR have so many I've almost lost count :D

[Snow Leopard]

Good they finally have one, AIR have so many I've almost lost count :D

The trick, for when the next one arrives, is to take your socks off :D :D

[Beagle]

Okay, I promise to take my socks off if you promise to take your blinkers off :D :D :D

[dobby41]

True, but Sir John was a successful businessman before a becoming a successful politician.

Sorry but he was never a good businessman.
He was a good team manager but that isn't the same as being a good businessman.
If he became chair I'd sell straight away. Innovation would stop!

[winner69]

Sorry but he was never a good businessman.
He was a good team manager but that isn't the same as being a good businessman.
If he became chair I'd sell straight away. Innovation would stop!

He was a good gambler (trader) I’m told

But we mustn’t upset his adoring followers must we dobby41

[weasel]

Sorry but he was never a good businessman.
He was a good team manager but that isn't the same as being a good businessman.
If he became chair I'd sell straight away. Innovation would stop!

He was a forex trader. I don't equate that with being a businessman.

[dobby41]

He was a forex trader. I don't equate that with being a businessman.

Actually I think he managed a team of forex traders - not sure he actually did trading himself.

[Zaphod]

He was a forex trader. I don't equate that with being a businessman.

What do you define as a businessman?

Because whether you like him or not, his senior management role at Meryl Lynch and the firms preceding it, fit the objective definition of businessman.

[mikeybycrikey]

If you want to see what John Key did in the 80s, this is worth a watch, for nostalgia value, if nothing else.

https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/close-up-big-dealers-john-key-1987 (https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/close-up-big-dealers-john-key-1987)

[Antipodean]

Best airline in the world.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11934634

[Snow Leopard]

Okay, I promise to take my socks off if you promise to take your blinkers off :D :D :D

Oh, you want them back! :(

Those new rose tinted contact lenses still irritating your eyes? :D :D :D :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Best airline in the world.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11934634

That's great and full credit to the excellent and highly professional staff at AIR that make a real difference.

[Xerof]

Actually I think he managed a team of forex traders - not sure he actually did trading himself.

He did both. He was a dealer at Elders Merchant Finance in Wellington (the video is of that trading desk), then Bankers Trust in Auckland before moving overseas to run the ML trading team in Singapore and eventually NEWYAK. There is no question he is a business head of the highest calibre, and had an extraordinarily good nose for working out how the FX market was positioned, and acting accordingly. It was a very tough business in the 80's

[winner69]

wonder if AIR will achieve the levels of growth of that QAN expect in H1

QAN revenue growth >5% whereas it appears as if AIR is <5%

[Beagle]

wonder if AIR will achieve the levels of growth of that QAN expect in H1

QAN revenue growth >5% whereas it appears as if AIR is <5%

QAN has had a HUGE run. Forecast profit at the mid point of the range is only 8% up on the first half last year. The senior team at AIR are pretty confident of an improvement on 2017 too.

[winner69]

The Listener front cover


WILL FYING COST US TOO MUCH
The threat to Kiwi holidays

hmm .... might give it a read

[Beagle]

Oil creeping up and $Kiwi going down means the cost of flying must increase or airline profitability will decrease.

[sb9]

Oil creeping up and $Kiwi going down means the cost of flying must increase or airline profitability will decrease.

I'll go for the first option, don't want shareholder returns to drop, right Beagle....:)

[Beagle]

I'll go for the first option, don't want shareholder returns to drop, right Beagle....:)

Yeap 10% price increases across the board, flying is too cheap, people need to man up and pay a proper price...no bias or vested interest here :D

[value_investor]

Brent crude passes $60 per gallon and the weakness of the NZD/USD also affects the price of oil is probably why the share price has come back a touch. I guess this is where the theory comes in of having more efficient planes actually comes into play.

The thought is more efficient planes will price AIR NZ better, relative to its competitors because the age of the fleet will cause older carriers to be less price competitive. Lets see how this plays out..

[see weed]

Just sold my last block of AIR I bought on 13/10/16 for $1.715c. Made $1.585c profit. A good company and will get back into it next year. In the mean time back to a2:).

[couta1]

Just sold my last block of AIR I bought on 13/10/16 for $1.715c. Made $1.585c profit. A good company and will get back into it next year. In the mean time back to a2:). Funny that, I was just thinking I must start buying a few over the next couple of months for the next divvy. PS-You really do love milky hype driven stocks aye.:cool:

[oldtech]

Do you think the tide has turned on AIR see weed? Looking at the chart, is this what TA'ers refer to as a head and shoulders pattern forming?

[see weed]

Do you think the tide has turned on AIR see weed? Looking at the chart, is this what TA'ers refer to as a head and shoulders pattern forming?
I use a 30 and 60 day MA. The reason I sold was to get more ATM. Not to worried about the tide. Will buy more next year before div. As long as I get a good div. and can make a good loss after div. then I am happy.

[Scrunch]

Do you think the tide has turned on AIR see weed? Looking at the chart, is this what TA'ers refer to as a head and shoulders pattern forming?

Well it does look like the right shoulder is forming but that's just looking at it, not from any fancy software. TA'ers, if this a right shoulder, how far should it fall?

[couta1]

Well it does look like the right shoulder is forming but that's just looking at it, not from any fancy software. TA'ers, if this a right shoulder, how far should it fall? It's all about sentiment, it's showing signals of being oversold already, showing support at $3.25 for now. Macro factors against the stock atm.

[winner69]

The Listener front cover


WILL FYING COST US TOO MUCH
The threat to Kiwi holidays

hmm .... might give it a read

Mainly about how evil airlines are by not addressing the huge carbon footprint they create. Agree there, the industry does shirk it's responsibilities. A lot of self-efficacy from our man Luxon in the article - suppose he has to try to convince punters AIR is a good citizen - yeah right

Loved this bit in the section 'How to take a planet friendly approach to travel':


Get downgraded. Don't fly in first class or business class because those passengers take up more space on the plane and as such their carbon footprint is much higher than those flying economy.


So come on Raz et al - do you thing and help save the planet.


only 6% of the worls population take a flight in any given year

[Ggcc]

It's only for a little while, somewhere to plant the dosh before next div paying stock comes along. It has payed off though, portfolio up about 100k in last 4 weeks mainly due to a2;).

I am into A2 and hold a few shares, but would not put anymore in until the next announcement as to how they are doing. I am happy with my holding there, but would be happier holding Air if purchased at those levels you mentioned rather than investing more into A2

[cdonald]

Doing this flight next Friday, followed by another one 2 hours later thru to London, will let you know how it go's. Have done most other variations of the trip to London and now look for a more pleasant on ground experience than standing in a usa customs line for an hour each time I transit with Air NZ thru LA

Got to say that this will now be my preferred route to London from now on. Doha is a very simple airport (one large terminal) and no custom checks like USA. Flights were good (flight over was about 75% full and flight on the way back was packed). Lots of nice touches like on board wifi and comfort packs (socks, eye masks and tooth brush etc) even for the cheap seats. they also have a great option where you can upgrade each leg of the trip if you would like to. Considering the price of the airfare was $800 less than a similar fare on AirNZ I would have expected to pay more for the quality of this flight in comparison.

Sorry Air NZ fans but the airline needs to become more competitive on the international flights as they are falling behind quickly.

[bull....]

oil over $60 not a tailwind anymore

[Justin]

why airnz drop and qantas still up today, they all face the same situation fuel price going up.

[Raz]

Mainly about how evil airlines are by not addressing the huge carbon footprint they create. Agree there, the industry does shirk it's responsibilities. A lot of self-efficacy from our man Luxon in the article - suppose he has to try to convince punters AIR is a good citizen - yeah right

Loved this bit in the section 'How to take a planet friendly approach to travel':


Get downgraded. Don't fly in first class or business class because those passengers take up more space on the plane and as such their carbon footprint is much higher than those flying economy.


So come on Raz et al - do you thing and help save the planet.


only 6% of the worls population take a flight in any given year

Haha the seat will still be there with the same carbon footprint..just a question who's sitting in it. Airfares are such a small part of the total cost of a trip...notice flights prices have been creeping up...they are all in lockstep except for the occassional empty plane then a quick low key discount :-)

[Beagle]

Mainly about how evil airlines are by not addressing the huge carbon footprint they create. Agree there, the industry does shirk it's responsibilities. A lot of self-efficacy from our man Luxon in the article - suppose he has to try to convince punters AIR is a good citizen - yeah right

Loved this bit in the section 'How to take a planet friendly approach to travel':


Get downgraded. Don't fly in first class or business class because those passengers take up more space on the plane and as such their carbon footprint is much higher than those flying economy.


So come on Raz et al - do you thing and help save the planet.


only 6% of the worls population take a flight in any given year

And who is the resident naughty dog who flies to Europe on a regular basis for no other reason than a holiday ?
Better scoot down and buy an electric car to ease your conscience mate :)

[stoploss]

Great company, but I don't see value at current prices. I try and avoid buying stocks these days when i consider they are either fully priced or overpriced, and IMO Air is fully priced at $2.50.

Couta thanks for your concern on the way up , I have exited for now . Having a crack at a couple of things on the other side of the Tasman .

[peat]

Let me just say that this kind of pattern makes me nervous.

9264

[Beagle]

Let me just say that this kind of pattern makes me nervous.

9264

Yeap sold 60% of mine on Monday and Tuesday. Headwinds starting to emerge, (currency, oil and left wing government) and technically it doesn't look all that good with a clear sustained break below the 100 day MA line. Gave away too many profits last time it went above $3 and then nose dived down to $1.75...once bitten twice shy so locked plenty in this time ! Still like this extremely well managed company but not prepared to swim against the tide for ANY company, its too much hard work !

[Benny1]

Yeap sold 60% of mine on Monday and Tuesday. Headwinds starting to emerge, (currency, oil and left wing government) and technically it doesn't look all that good with a clear sustained break below the 100 day MA line. Gave away too many profits last time it went above $3 and then nose dived down to $1.75...once bitten twice shy so locked plenty in this time ! Still like this extremely well managed company but not prepared to swim against the tide for ANY company, its too much hard work !

Thought you were in for the long haul Mr "B" ? Or are the going on's over at THL at the moment just too tempting...

Still...plenty of time to get back in before the next Divi :t_up:

[Beagle]

Thought you were in for the long haul Mr "B" ? Or are the going on's over at THL at the moment just too tempting...

Still...plenty of time to get back in before the next Divi :t_up:

I still maintain a meaningful position and as you say depending upon monthly operating stat's there's plenty of opportunity to revisit that before the half year result in late February 2018. N.Z. Govt must approve any shareholder going proposing to go above 10% in AIR but as you say over at THL there is no such requirement and probably never will be. Yes I think a Chinese takeover is a real chance so my THL position is now considerably bigger than AIR. I think some people as soon as the takeover is announced will wonder why they didn't position themselves properly earlier, I won't be one of them :)

[Raz]

Yeap sold 60% of mine on Monday and Tuesday. Headwinds starting to emerge, (currency, oil and left wing government) and technically it doesn't look all that good with a clear sustained break below the 100 day MA line. Gave away too many profits last time it went above $3 and then nose dived down to $1.75...once bitten twice shy so locked plenty in this time ! Still like this extremely well managed company but not prepared to swim against the tide for ANY company, its too much hard work !


Think this can generally be applied to a few companies on the NZX currently...

[Beagle]

Think this can generally be applied to a few companies on the NZX currently...

Couldn't agree more !

[couta1]

Couta thanks for your concern on the way up , I have exited for now . Having a crack at a couple of things on the other side of the Tasman . You must have trolled through the archives for a while to dig up that old post, still at least I called it as I saw it at the time.

[stoploss]

You must have trolled through the archives for a while to dig up that old post, still at least I called it as I saw it at the time.
No , there were plenty to choose from ........

[couta1]

No , there were plenty to choose from ........ What's your motive for bringing any of them back up though?

[stoploss]

What's your motive for bringing any of them back up though?

I thought it was plain at the time. You were making a poor call ,against the trend . I was worried that you would scare other investors out of a good trade .
Now I believe the trend has changed I just wanted to let you know I had done a stop/profit on the trade .

[winner69]

And who is the resident naughty dog who flies to Europe on a regular basis for no other reason than a holiday ?
Better scoot down and buy an electric car to ease your conscience mate :)

Cut footprint by half by going for one long trip instead of two shorter trips ......and plant hundreds of trees as an offset

And last time went economy which apparently has a lesser footprint than business and first class.


And I didn’t tick the offset box when booking. They still have that don’t they

[Beagle]

Cut footprint by half by going for one long trip instead of two shorter trips ......and plant hundreds of trees as an offset

And last time went economy which apparently has a lesser footprint than business and first class.


And I didn’t tick the offset box when booking. They still have that don’t they

Yes I believe they do, (but wonder if it just goes into the P&L somewhere...what a naughty cynical old dog I am) but you could always give your friend Jacinda a call, rumor has it they might struggle to meet their promise to plant 100 million trees this year :)

[moka]

Originally Posted by couta1
Great company, but I don't see value at current prices. I try and avoid buying stocks these days when i consider they are either fully priced or overpriced, and IMO Air is fully priced at $2.50.



I thought it was plain at the time. You were making a poor call ,against the trend . I was worried that you would scare other investors out of a good trade .
Now I believe the trend has changed I just wanted to let you know I had done a stop/profit on the trade .

Interesting discussion Couta1 and stoploss.
I don’t agree that Couta was making a poor call. It was the right call for Couta, and he was very clear why it was right for him.
It’s all about knowing who you are and finding an investing/trading style that suits you.
Different strokes for different folks. Investor or trader? As I see it you both have different investing timeframes and different investing/trading styles. From what I see Couta1 is a long term buy and hold investor, whereas stoploss appears to be short term trend-following or momentum trading with AIR which is not Couta’s style.
Quite different styles, and you can both be winners. There is no one right way to invest. What couta1 said was right for him, and what stoploss did was right for him. You both can be right. Different styles of investing/trading.

Morningstar has a valuation of $2.60 reduce

[Beagle]

Morningstar has a valuation of $2.60 reduce



Wish I hadn't trimmed my holding now. Those guys are far more often wrong than right. Shares are fair value at present in my opinion.

Couta1 a very nice guy and the most honest bloke on here by miles even if sometimes he makes the wrong call at least he's transparent about it, never duplicitous or opaque about his stance on things.

[Justin]

Air New Zealand takes top spot in ratings site awards

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11939599&ref=twitter

[Raz]

Air New Zealand takes top spot in ratings site awards

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11939599&ref=twitter


Great marketing sound bite however hard to believe how they came up with that one..young age of aircraft must be heavy weighted as innovations they mentioned are years old and in most cases being phased out on newer planes !

[Baa_Baa]

Great marketing sound bite however hard to believe how they came up with that one..young age of aircraft must be heavy weighted as innovations they mentioned are years old and in most cases being phased out on newer planes !

It's all 'spin' Raz, as you know. The share trader promoters of AIR could make a meal of it, but are strangely silent. Might be the uncertainty in the SP for the past few months.

[Beagle]

Maybe shareholders have got blasé about all these awards they're winning, after all there's so many of them its hard to keep count...and its like, yeah AIR has won yet another airline of the year award..so what, just another regular weekly occurance :p
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/air-new-zealand-flies-to-top-airline-award/ar-AAtHNFX?li=AA59FU&ocid=spartandhp

[Raz]

Maybe shareholders have got blasé about all these awards they're winning, after all there's so many of them its hard to keep count...and its like, yeah AIR has won yet another airline of the year award..so what, just another regular weekly occurance :p
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/air-new-zealand-flies-to-top-airline-award/ar-AAtHNFX?li=AA59FU&ocid=spartandhp

As a shareholder and all whites supporter I happy with this customer service :-)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/nz-teams/98548955/john-key-lends-a-hand-with-the-all-whites-flights-to-peru

Then again you can always do better:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11940066

[winner69]

Jet fuel up to about us$73 a barrel

That’s not even mentioned on the chart in AIRs preso showing impact of fuel costs relative to their forecast us$60 (inclusive of all hedging)

Looks like fuel bill going to $70m/$80m more than forecasted.

[Beagle]

Jet fuel up to about us$73 a barrel

That’s not even mentioned on the chart in AIRs preso showing impact of fuel costs relative to their forecast us$60 (inclusive of all hedging)

Looks like fuel bill going to $70m/$80m more than forecasted.

No doubt about it, fares are going to have to go up because the $Kiwi is lower than forecast too. Sure they have great currency and fuel hedging in place that gives them time to adjust their business model but it will need some adjustment in the months ahead that's for sure and customers will need to be prepared to pay more.

[Fatboyj]

Their marketing team not taking any notice just got an email for one way fare to LA for $529.

[Beagle]

Their marketing team not taking any notice just got an email for one way fare to LA for $529.

Enjoy cheap air fares while they last. Oil is now in a clear breakout of its recent trading range and it appears the MK2 Opec, (much closer collusion with Russia now), seem intent on sticking with production cuts and driving prices higher. Might be a good time to revisit AIR's hedging strategy. From memory they are about 80% hedged for the rest of FY18 which gives AIR plenty of time to tweak their business model. Travelers have had golden weather for a few years now with super cheap airfares on the back of very cheap oil. A reminder that AIR have often mentioned that yield and oil costs are inextricably linked so over time you would expect yields will need to increase to cover the extra cost.

[Raz]

Their marketing team not taking any notice just got an email for one way fare to LA for $529.

Off season spare seats..sea fog makes it yuk in LA during Winter...mid afternoon before it burns off..still premium price over the "others"