AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

AIR still over priced according to guru analysts at FNZC

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fe929775/air-nz-shares-still-over-priced-as-growing-uncertainties-cloud-earnings-outlook-fnzc.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20shares%20still%20over-priced%20as%20growing%20uncertainties%20cloud%20ea rnings%20outlook%20FNZC&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20shares%20still%20over-priced%20as%20growing%20uncertainties%20cloud%20ea rnings%20outlook%20FNZC+CID_ca9bb624533451ba146e43 3ac4cec3b3&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefe929775air-nz-shares-still-over-priced-as-growing-uncertainties-cloud-earnings-outlook-fnzchtml

[Beagle]

AIR still over priced according to guru analysts at FNZC

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fe929775/air-nz-shares-still-over-priced-as-growing-uncertainties-cloud-earnings-outlook-fnzc.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20shares%20still%20over-priced%20as%20growing%20uncertainties%20cloud%20ea rnings%20outlook%20FNZC&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20shares%20still%20over-priced%20as%20growing%20uncertainties%20cloud%20ea rnings%20outlook%20FNZC+CID_ca9bb624533451ba146e43 3ac4cec3b3&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefe929775air-nz-shares-still-over-priced-as-growing-uncertainties-cloud-earnings-outlook-fnzchtml

Yes real guru's...had it at fair value at $2.55 for many many months now and clients that followed their advice left as much as $1 on the table for others to enjoy. Thanks ! Now they upgrade their SP target as things get slightly tougher for AIR ??? Bizarre, go figure ? By upgrading their price target now that headwinds are starting to emerge do they tacitly admit they were ever fundamentally miles off the mark before ? Clients of theirs probably best not to be holding their breath waiting for an apology for getting it so wrong before are they ? Oh and seeing as they got it so wrong before why should we believe their analyst now ?

Do they bother to try and understand the absolute basics that yield and fuel costs are inextricably linked ? Do they bother to factor in special dividends in their investment time horizon ? They have been consistently negative on AIR for a number of years now and have got this one very badly wrong over the last year so I for one cannot think of any good reason to believe their latest version of the so called truth. I doubt their analyst doing this research has any talent.
My 3 cents worth on them.

[Justin]

If you think it’s great company, it always have to add some premium value + fair value :p

[cyclist]

Yes real guru's...had it at fair value at $2.55 for many many months now and clients that followed their advice left as much as $1 on the table for others to enjoy. Thanks ! Now they upgrade their SP target as things get slightly tougher for AIR ??? Bizarre, go figure ? By upgrading their price target now that headwinds are starting to emerge do they tacitly admit they were ever fundamentally miles off the mark before ? Clients of theirs probably best not to be holding their breath waiting for an apology for getting it so wrong before are they ? Oh and seeing as they got it so wrong before why should we believe their analyst now ?

Do they bother to try and understand the absolute basics that yield and fuel costs are inextricably linked ? Do they bother to factor in special dividends in their investment time horizon ? They have been consistently negative on AIR for a number of years now and have got this one very badly wrong over the last year so I for one cannot think of any good reason to believe their latest version of the so called truth. I doubt their analyst doing this research has any talent.
My 3 cents worth on them.

Beagle has got his growl on (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTYcbh3u0k).

[Snow Leopard]

...My 3 cents worth on them.

You have an inflated opinion of the value of your opinion :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Beagle has got his growl on (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTYcbh3u0k).

:lol: :lol: Once upon a time I realized I'd put too much food in my beagle's food bowl and in the interest of trying to keep excessive weight off her I tried to take some back while she was eating it. It doesn't matter how good the bond is between a man and his dog you only ever do that once in your pet Beagle's life... if you value your fingers. Clipping her claws was pretty risky business too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjhS7GaQIIA

[Beagle]

You have an inflated opinion of the value of your opinion :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Fact's speak for themselves and FNZ originally had a price target IIRC of just on $2 and raised it to $2.55 a very long time ago and now raise it again now that headwinds are starting to emerge which is clearly illogical...all they are doing by upping their price target now is trying to cover up their monumentally incorrect earlier assessments. Of course you might opine yet again how your valuation is now XYZ but I find it interesting how your's is almost always so close to the mean average of analysts. Too scared to put a paw out of line...meow :p

[Baa_Baa]

This is fun.

[Oliver Mander]

Beagle, this particular cat is prepared to put a claw or two on the line, to protect the integrity of the forum felines. $4.07 as underlying value (not including any dividends paid of course - that would reduce it).
An assumption or two in the model that drives that, but not so many as to make me worried.

be interested to see whether there are any of my relations around (such as tigers) who may hold a sharply differing opinion.

The biggest factor in this is probably the "return factor" used to assess fair value - and whether it sticks, or whether we're back to the bad old days I remember as a kitten, with oil-price induced airline cash volatility...
This cat has shares in an oilco as well as AIR, just in case...

Now baa-baa, are there any little lambs prepared to put their neck on the chopping block...? what do you think?

[Brain]

Highly competitive industry ,outlook not great for profit growth. Around $3.40 seems fair value if they can maintain their profit. I have halved my holding in this over recent weeks. Happy with the profit since my buy in was $2.10 average + Dividends.The chart may also indicate that the investing community is also beginning to be a bit wary of the share.

[winner69]

I reckon $2.87 is about the real value ...taking everything into account

[Raz]

I reckon $2.87 is about the real value ...taking everything into account

I'm around $3 with a view downward as it moves with the whole international sector, I have a strong belief tourism world wide has an issue with accommodation availability and overall cost it contributes to trips for the great middle market, the problem is not the cost of flights. I note dips in attendance number in world wide tourism spots like NYC, Orlando & London etc. Brexit is coming to a head and oil..Northern sentiment could easily change to the downside.

[Beagle]

Just getting the last bit of barking off my chest as this does frustrate the hound because institutions read First's "professional" analyst reports.... I note they have been persistently the most negative analyst on AIR over a very sustained period of time. Before this update they were at $2.55 which I believe is a price they have had for many many months.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/
A cynic, (of which its clear I am one) would say they had to upgrade as they were at such a dramatic and professionally embarrasing variance to their peers with the average view of analysts at $3.20. A hardened cynic might observe that they have belatedly and apparently begrudgingly simply followed the market up in terms of their guidance, albeit dragging the chain both in terms of timing and value compared to other analysts. Now they have finally moved the revised average once adjusted into 4 traders figures will be $3.26 according to my calculations.

For the first time in a very long time, (and regular readers will know the hound has been barking vocally positive far in excess of average analyst views for quite some time with this puppy, unlike some who have held a very dim view for a VERY long time) I find myself in line with average analyst views taking all current known information into account. (I was more positive a couple of months ago but oil has gone up, the currency down and yield gains compared to last year have undershot my estimates by about 2%). I had hoped seeing as yield this time last year were dramatically affected by 10 new entrants to the market that yield gains this year would have been more pronounced.

I update my view on the company every time we get monthly operating stat's. Some analysts only update their viewpoint twice a year.

P.S. Interesting to note one professional analyst has a $3.90 value on this one.

[Snow Leopard]

What's with the AIR crash today?

Surely not over this Link: Air New Zealand's warning over summer peak flying (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11942637) ?

Nice plane picture:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/resizer/4gCXjZtqEbKS1iv6nt52Dk3yak8=/900x506/smart/filters:quality(70)/arc-anglerfish-syd-prod-nzme.s3.amazonaws.com/public/LQUIUFXXGNABHCS4DW2RCVDES4.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Good advice in that article but I would add that parking at Auckland Airport is now presenting as a major challenge at peak times. If you have a mid morning flight don't just assume you can turn up at the Auckland airport and find a park quickly and get to the terminal quickly. Often the only parks available, (if any), are right at the far end of the carpark. Allow an extra 15 minutes to find a carpark, (yes you can end up going around and around and around looking for one) and another 5 to walk to the terminal if you're parked at the furthest point, most likely, plus the usual time to get through security. The other issue is how long does it take to get to Auckland airport ? the answer can be how long is a piece of string and this is presenting as another real challenge for Auckland travelers in particular.

Rob McDonald selling some shares might have spooked the market a little. Readers will know I think this is an extremely well managed company so I am happy to put my paw up for a few more on sale today.

[Oliver Mander]

Given decline in THL and AIR, wondering if its speculation around tourism taxes...???

[winner69]

Today's drop in shareprice just the whims of the market on a Friday

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down

No worries ....be all right again next week

[Oliver Mander]

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down



Nooooo. ........really????? :t_up:

[Beagle]

Today's drop in shareprice just the whims of the market on a Friday

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down

No worries ....be all right again next week

Yes late Friday afternoon is often a period of slight weakness of AIR shares which some shareholders like to take advantage of, myself included.
https://simplywall.st/news/2017/11/02/is-it-too-late-to-buy-air-new-zealand-limited-nzseair/

[Oliver Mander]

Yes late Friday afternoon is often a period of slight weakness of AIR shares which some shareholders like to take advantage of, myself included.
https://simplywall.st/news/2017/11/02/is-it-too-late-to-buy-air-new-zealand-limited-nzseair/

Well well - they are saying their value is $4.09....(as per my earlier post, mine is $4.07).
How interesting.
Heavily cashflow-based of course....no accounting for market 'traditional' sentiment towards airlines in general.

The beta comment is interesting...in the short run (3-6 months), AIR has been relatively close to market (beta of 1). But over 12 mths or more, the correlation has been more defensive; my own calcs show the 12 month beta is 0.57. Meaning in theory, its a good stock to hold as the market declines.

[winner69]

Well well - they are saying their value is $4.09....(as per my earlier post, mine is $4.07).
How interesting.
Heavily cashflow-based of course....no accounting for market 'traditional' sentiment towards airlines in general.

The beta comment is interesting...in the short run (3-6 months), AIR has been relatively close to market (beta of 1). But over 12 mths or more, the correlation has been more defensive; my own calcs show the 12 month beta is 0.57. Meaning in theory, its a good stock to hold as the market declines.

.......but (with a beta of 0.57) in theory not that a good stock to hold in an up market ....yes?

[Benny1]

Good to see the executive team haven't lost their touch.....Bruce Parton and Rob Donald sold a few shares before the big drop today.....got to had it to them..

Hope they bought some THL with their newly found proceeds...

Here's a thought Air NZ takes a 5% chunk in THL... helps keeps the Chinese buyers at bay and Air NZ investors get a share of two great NZ tourism related companies.

Would certainly provide a better return for Air NZ than certain Australian Airlines that will go unnamed:confused:

[Justin]

Good to see the executive team haven't lost their touch.....Bruce Parton and Rob Donald sold a few shares before the big drop today.....got to had it to them..

Hope they bought some THL with their newly found proceeds...

Here's a thought Air NZ takes a 5% chunk in THL... helps keeps the Chinese buyers at bay and Air NZ investors get a share of two great NZ tourism related companies.

Would certainly provide a better return for Air NZ than certain Australian Airlines that will go unnamed:confused:

Will air buy other compaies share?

[Benny1]

Will air buy other compaies share?

Most probably not ! But dreams are free...

[winner69]

Fares to London getting cheaper

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11942724

This current level of competition is unprecedented and we can only advise that Kiwis take advantage of this incredibly competitive marketplace while it lasts."

He said it was unusual for Air New Zealand to offer such heavily discounted seats on the London route. He said there were "plenty" of seats in the deal.

"My interpretation is that the excess capacity is starting to impact further and wider."

[Beagle]

Crickey that's "cheep" like a budgie. $1,299 to fly on AIR to London including their expensive departure tax. 7 May - 12 June 2018.
Good opportunity to fly there and parallel import one of those Bust My Wallet cars....or maybe Couta1 needs to lift his game with the skiing and do some spring skiing in Switzerland..only $1,399 https://helloworld.co.nz/Special/air-new-zealand-zurich

Hmmm..fares so good they almost make a shareholder weep but a traveler jump for joy !

[stoploss]

May might be a little late for skiing ?

[Raz]

Crickey that's "cheep" like a budgie. $1,299 to fly on AIR to London including their expensive departure tax. 7 May - 12 June 2018.
Good opportunity to fly there and parallel import one of those Bust My Wallet cars....or maybe Couta1 needs to lift his game with the skiing and do some spring skiing in Switzerland..only $1,399 https://helloworld.co.nz/Special/air-new-zealand-zurich

Hmmm..fares so good they almost make a shareholder weep but a traveler jump for joy !

Their problem is via LAX, you end up standing in an over crowded lounge for a couple of hours in transit or via HK and SH their code share partners are far from ideal options...inferior product..word getting out to the wider market..so many better options to London/Europe, product, experience and location on the way plus duration of flights. Harder to charge a premium..can't fool all the...

Share price on Friday... just moving towards my valuation :-)

[iceman]

Raz I've been through LAX a couple of times in the last couple of months and while it was busy, I was pleasantly surprised by how efficient and quick it was with all their new machines and plenty of people to assist both times. A big improvement from having to wait in line for a person inspecting the passport.
On one of them I had a 2 hours connection from Europe through to AIR and made it with sufficient time to spare

[Zaphod]

AirNZ have been working closely with LAWA, CBP and TSA to expedite transfer processing times and I think that's had a positive effect.
We have experienced delays of around 45 minutes a couple of times now at the security screening queue because only a couple of staff were available for secondary security screening of electronic devices for the entire terminal. At one point there were a dozen devices all piled up waiting for screening with TSA staff members getting irate themselves.

For routes through to Europe using NZ, I think HKG and YVR would be the top of my list in terms of preference. If using other carriers, then DBX or DOH is preferable IMO.

[winner69]

Is $729 to Vancouver a good deal

Tempted .....always wanted to take that train trip up through The Rocky Mountains to places like Jasper .....and maybe tag on an Alaskan Cruise to see some icebergs

[777]

Is $729 to Vancouver a good deal

Tempted .....always wanted to take that train trip up through The Rocky Mountains to places like Jasper .....and maybe tag on an Alaskan Cruise to see some icebergs

I did that once (about 1981). It was great but unfortunately a lot of it was at night. If I remember it took about 20 hrs to get to Calgary.

[Zaphod]

Is $729 to Vancouver a good deal

Tempted .....always wanted to take that train trip up through The Rocky Mountains to places like Jasper .....and maybe tag on an Alaskan Cruise to see some icebergs

PM me if you want some tips. We lived in Vancouver a few years ago and have done a lot of travel through Vancouver Island and central BC both on ferry, train and car, including the ice fields parkway through the rockies. Well worth the trip, especially if you're only pay $750 odd to YVR!

[Raz]

Is $729 to Vancouver a good deal

Tempted .....always wanted to take that train trip up through The Rocky Mountains to places like Jasper .....and maybe tag on an Alaskan Cruise to see some icebergs


That will be only one way, look at the return all up cost, if April or later then a good price...if direct AKL to YVR then worth it, even at a price premium...to do what you want you need to go at the right time of year...

[winner69]

Thanks zaphod. Will do if I ever get organised and do that trip.

Friends have told me Vancouver and environs pretty cool place to visit

[dreamcatcher]

New research article by investment institution suggests Brent oil prices to re-trace back to US$58/bb

new TP $3.37

DYOR

[couta1]

New research article by investment institution suggests Brent oil prices to re-trace back to US$58/bb

new TP $3.37

DYOR Mum's the word.

[winner69]

October operating stats a bit so so ......revenue v last year growing slightly still

Profits more than last year

[couta1]

October operating stats a bit so so ......revenue v last year growing slightly still

Profits more than last year All looks fine to me including load factors.

[Beagle]

All looks fine to me including load factors.

Agreed. Pleasing to note RPK YTD excluding currency factors increased from +2.1% last month to +2.8% this month. Gives grounds to support management's optimism expressed at the recent annual meeting. Also pleasing is their fuel hedge position which is currently just over $USD29m in the money. Its never a good thing to see oil prices going up like lately, (but as long as yields increase, which they are, that's fine) and they have good level's of hedges in place worth over $42m Kiwi net of costs.

Business appears to be in good shape. Newly configured brand new Dreamliner starts services to Houston in December. Also announced so many different awards that I lost count.

[Oliver Mander]

Agreed. Pleasing to note RPK YTD excluding currency factors increased from +2.1% last month to +2.8% this month. Gives grounds to support management's optimism expressed at the recent annual meeting. Also pleasing is their fuel hedge position which is currently just over $USD29m in the money. Its never a good thing to see oil prices going up like lately, (but as long as yields increase, which they are, that's fine) and they have good level's of hedges in place worth over $42m Kiwi net of costs.

Business appears to be in good shape. Newly configured brand new Dreamliner starts services to Houston in December. Also announced so many different awards that I lost count.

The stats and hedge update show the resilience of the business; good to see in a world where oil costs are likely to rise over the next few years.
Still not sure whether there's a "step change" disconnect between oil price and airline value, but stats like this help!

[brend]

Also announced so many different awards that I lost count.

because there are so many different awards out there...nothing more than a PR sham. The next award will be from a weetbix box.

[Beagle]

because there are so many different awards out there...nothing more than a PR sham. The next award will be from a weetbix box.

I know you're a good guy but I think that's more than a little harsh. Granted there is a wider proliferation of awards these days but some of the awards AIR has been getting are from long standing organizations that have been assessing these sort of things for a very long time. Its not a lucky dip mate, you win these awards by being very good at what you do. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/310680/270154.pdf

[winner69]

First month this financial year that long haul revenues been ahead of prior year

That's good

[Snow Leopard]

....Also pleasing is their fuel hedge position which is currently just over $USD29m in the money. Its never a good thing to see oil prices going up like lately, (but as long as yields increase, which they are, that's fine) and they have good level's of hedges in place worth over $42m Kiwi net of costs....

The more they spend they more they save :t_up:.

[couta1]

Big players playing pass the parcel today.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11946154

Outlook for tourism is very good in my opinion. Lower dollar helps too and fortunately for AIR the vast majority of their fleet modernization was completed when our dollar was stronger. Gross dividend yield at current price provides a (21 / 311.5) / 0.72 = 9.4% return + special(s) in due course when the capex program is finished.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1663e0ea/annual-migration-lifts-in-october-despite-more-kiwis-aussies-leaving.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Annual%20migration%20lifts%20in%20Oct ober%20despite%20more%20Kiwis%20Aussies%20leaving&utm_content=Annual%20migration%20lifts%20in%20Octo ber%20despite%20more%20Kiwis%20Aussies%20leaving+C ID_330923c2b29e2d0311e8175d9a4684f9&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle1663e0eaannual-migration-lifts-in-october-despite-more-kiwis-aussies-leavinghtml
Tourism growth still trucking along strongly.

[Oliver Mander]

Wonder if this article helps explains Air NZ's late run today...not released to the market here yet, but was obviously issued from the US during their night...

http://www.4-traders.com/AAR-CORP-11590/news/AAR-Continues-to-Grow-Business-and-Capabilities-with-Air-New-Zealand-Companies-grow-component-rep-25547074/

[Raz]

First month this financial year that long haul revenues been ahead of prior year

That's good

That was enough for me to buy in...

[winner69]

That was enough for me to buy in...

Pretty key indicator eh

[Beagle]

Pretty key indicator eh

Long haul yield increases, flying increased RPK's by about 5% using new fuel efficient dreamliners using fuel hedged at ~ $42m Kiwi below spot rates bought using hedged forward currency in the low 70's cents U.S. and strong tourism growth feeding growing domestic RPK's...unless the hounds nose is contaminated by sniffing excess aviation fuel fumes and his eyes covered by rose tined blinkers or his ears this looks like profit heading nicely northwards to me.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1d98775a/air-nz-partners-with-swiss-travel-platform-winding-tree-to-look-at-blockchain.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20partners%20with%20Swiss%20 travel%20platform%20Winding%20Tree%20to%20look%20a t%20blockchain&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20partners%20with%20Swiss%20t ravel%20platform%20Winding%20Tree%20to%20look%20at %20blockchain+CID_fa31f1b7276192c3112f39141f7656b9&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle1d98775aair-nz-partners-with-swiss-travel-platform-winding-tree-to-look-at-blockchainhtml

Got chatting to one of my old University mates the other day who's now a Law professor at Auckland Law School and he reckons there's a fair bit in this whole blockchain technology...the way of the future he reckons.

[winner69]

Good to see Qantas management making a real effort to increase the number of female pilots (almost putting a quota on it)

Great stuff

Hope AIR follows suit ....and AIR could make sure their senior management team is a bit more diverse at the same time

[winner69]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1d98775a/air-nz-partners-with-swiss-travel-platform-winding-tree-to-look-at-blockchain.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20partners%20with%20Swiss%20 travel%20platform%20Winding%20Tree%20to%20look%20a t%20blockchain&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20partners%20with%20Swiss%20t ravel%20platform%20Winding%20Tree%20to%20look%20at %20blockchain+CID_fa31f1b7276192c3112f39141f7656b9&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle1d98775aair-nz-partners-with-swiss-travel-platform-winding-tree-to-look-at-blockchainhtml

Got chatting to one of my old University mates the other day who's now a Law professor at Auckland Law School and he reckons there's a fair bit in this whole blockchain technology...the way of the future he reckons.

Buying some of these cryptos then ...dogs love them i’m told

Don’t think you’ll want any lifs though .......but you never know you might be able to buy travel with them.

[Fatboyj]

On the wonderful Ethereum blockchain too. Great news, 2018 is going to be a massive year for this new tech.

[BlackPeter]

On the wonderful Ethereum blockchain too. Great news, 2018 is going to be a massive year for this new tech.

The blockchain is just an open source technology offering a different option to register securities. While the technology (block chain) has huge potential and while now even real companies are looking into employing this technology (like the article stated about AIR), does this in no means imply that any of the currently in some sort of blockchain registered securities (like Bitcoin, Ethereum) have any future.

WYN, PEB and FPH (and all other NZX companies) all use currently the same "registration technology" (asking Computershare or Link to maintain their central register). Does not mean that this "technology" has anything to do with the potential of the registered company.

[winner69]

Keeping track of what opposition up to

http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/time-to-up-the-ante-to-get-more-female-pilots-says-qantas-boss-alan-joyce-20171122-gzqv6t.html

[Beagle]

Good to see Qantas management making a real effort to increase the number of female pilots (almost putting a quota on it)

Great stuff

Hope AIR follows suit ....and AIR could make sure their senior management team is a bit more diverse at the same time
I have no issue whatsoever with a company encouraging diversity and no problem whatsoever with female pilots flying for AIR because I know they'll have to come up through the old fashioned flight school methodology of rigorous training AIR has. If they're good enough bring it on provided they're not promoted within the company's pilot ranks based on their gender, (standard system of evaluating promotion must surely apply right across the board for all employees).
I wouldn't want to be a passenger on an AIR N.Z. A320 landing at Wellington in a fierce storm if I knew a pilot had been promoted artificially quickly up from flying turboprops just because of race, creed, religion, a quota system or gender would you ? One of the benefits of flying AIR in those circumstances is you know the captain in charge will have thousands of hours of hands on flying experience dating right back to flying Cessna's or their equivalent at flight school. The same cannot necessarily be said about Jetstar pilots who may have got their wings based in large part based on their performance in flight simulators.

Mate I don't really understand your apparent obsession with diversity but I am happy to accept that we all have our various idiosyncrasies and viewpoints and are perfectly entitled to hold them.

Happy to leave it to others to wrap their heads around the latest mysteries of the technological cryptocurrency universe, too tough for this old dog to learn fancy new tricks like that lol.

[iceman]

I have no issue whatsoever with a company encouraging diversity and no problem whatsoever with female pilots flying for AIR because I know they'll have to come up through the old fashioned flight school methodology of rigorous training AIR has. If they're good enough bring it on provided they're not promoted within the company's pilot ranks based on their gender, (standard system of evaluating promotion must surely apply right across the board for all employees).


Mate I don't really understand your apparent obsession with diversity but I am happy to accept that we all have our various idiosyncrasies and viewpoints and are perfectly entitled to hold them.

.

Not that I really want to take part in the diversity dicussion but found it interesting that on a recent domestic AIR flight we had an all female crew of pilot, co-pilot and 2 cabin crew. That was a first for me and good to see. Not that I noticed much difference in my travel experience :-)

[Beagle]

Not that I really want to take part in the diversity dicussion but found it interesting that on a recent domestic AIR flight we had an all female crew of pilot, co-pilot and 2 cabin crew. That was a first for me and good to see. Not that I noticed much difference in my travel experience :-)

As long as they earn their money and are not artificially promoted and exercise all care and skill I am happy...for your viewing pleasure https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0jnahV81AU I reckon the pilots earn their money on days like that :eek2:

[couta1]

Gender equity is fine and dandy, but any sort of quota PC crap is not.

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1711/S00810/air-new-zealand-lands-countrys-top-governance-award.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+25 +November+2017

Another day...another award...I agree with some people's comments both on the record and sent by PM that its easy to become blasé about all these awards as they win so many of them...BUT I think we should remind ourselves now and again that whilst its true that nearly all airlines fly ostensibly similar metal in the sky, all burning vast amounts of fossil fuels to do so, this is not a lucky dip situation.. they win all these various awards for very sound reasons.

[Zaphod]

The blockchain is just an open source technology offering a different option to register securities. While the technology (block chain) has huge potential and while now even real companies are looking into employing this technology (like the article stated about AIR), does this in no means imply that any of the currently in some sort of blockchain registered securities (like Bitcoin, Ethereum) have any future.

WYN, PEB and FPH (and all other NZX companies) all use currently the same "registration technology" (asking Computershare or Link to maintain their central register). Does not mean that this "technology" has anything to do with the potential of the registered company.

IMO this is another case of AIR strategically dropping in some buzzwords in order to gain some additional publicity. Similar things occurred when AIR adopted VOIP services back in the day.

[weasel]

The blockchain is just an open source technology offering a different option to register securities. While the technology (block chain) has huge potential and while now even real companies are looking into employing this technology (like the article stated about AIR), does this in no means imply that any of the currently in some sort of blockchain registered securities (like Bitcoin, Ethereum) have any future.

WYN, PEB and FPH (and all other NZX companies) all use currently the same "registration technology" (asking Computershare or Link to maintain their central register). Does not mean that this "technology" has anything to do with the potential of the registered company.

I can understand companies partnering or doing proof-of-concepts, etc - but actually *investing in the token sale*? That seems a bit weird to me.

[Jantar]

I can understand companies partnering or doing proof-of-concepts, etc - but actually *investing in the token sale*? That seems a bit weird to me. I look at it as just another way of managing multi currency transactions without the added complexity of continuously fluctuating exchange rates.

[winner69]

This Winding Tree news - now I know what Luxon means when he goes on about assertively synthesizing B2B fungibility efficiently by re-engineering leading-edge synergistic processes.

He goes on to say the how to is progressively mesh technically sound collaboration and idea-sharing

[Zaphod]

This Winding Tree news - now I know what Luxon means when he goes on about assertively synthesizing B2B fungibility efficiently by re-engineering leading-edge synergistic processes.

He goes on to say the how to is progressively mesh technically sound collaboration and idea-sharing

LOL, that about sums the situation up!


I can understand companies partnering or doing proof-of-concepts, etc - but actually *investing in the token sale*? That seems a bit weird to me.

They're probably betting on increased profits through a more efficient supply chain and potentially a ROI on any appreciation of the newly invented currency. It's an interesting concept though.

[Beagle]

One would hope this new strategy has more payback than their most recent foray into new technology, (massive capex on a whole fleet of expensive new European electric cars to save the equivalent of one tank of fuel for one Dreamliner just once, and that over the entire lifetime of the entire fleet's operation at a capex cost many many times a function of the fuel saved). Of course that particular foray may pay dividends with marketing and environmental awareness not to forget political correctness which seems so incredibly important these days...or so they tell me. Blockchain and Cryptocurriencies the new buzzwords to impress the techno aware and have some marketing payback as well ?

[moka]

Mate I don't really understand your apparent obsession with diversity but I am happy to accept that we all have our various idiosyncrasies and viewpoints and are perfectly entitled to hold them.

I don’t think Winner is obsessed with diversity - he just realises it is important because years of research has shown that more diverse workplaces are more innovative and thus perform better than those that aren't. Complex problems are best approached by teams with a variety of perspectives.
Unconscious bias describes situations where our background, personal experiences, societal stereotypes and cultural context can impact our decisions and actions without us realising. Making the unconscious conscious will help people make more objective decisions, facilitate inclusive interactions, and create opportunities.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/google-unconscious-bias-training-presentation-2015-12?r=US&IR=T#/#-41

[Blair]

The blockchain is just an open source technology offering a different option to register securities. While the technology (block chain) has huge potential and while now even real companies are looking into employing this technology (like the article stated about AIR), does this in no means imply that any of the currently in some sort of blockchain registered securities (like Bitcoin, Ethereum) have any future.

WYN, PEB and FPH (and all other NZX companies) all use currently the same "registration technology" (asking Computershare or Link to maintain their central register). Does not mean that this "technology" has anything to do with the potential of the registered company.


I am not sure if you are grossly oversimplifying on purpose or because you don't understand or I just don't get where you're coming from.

The blockchain may have started as "just" a distributed, decentralized register of value with the original blockchain that underpinned bitcoin, but Ethereum seeks to be much more. One reason it is so popular and why private companies are choosing to build applications on top of the Ethereum blockchain is smart contracts. Here is a copy/paste from an article a couple of months ago about how AXA Insurance is trialing an application built on the Ethereum blockchain.



Called “fizzy,” the new product ... offers compensation to policyholders whose flights are delayed by more than two hours.


The Ethereum blockchain is used both to record a smart contract copy of the insurance and also to link into global air traffic databases to match flight data to insurance policies. If the data detects a delay of more than two hours on a given flight, it then checks the insurance policy records and should it find a match, it automatically makes an insurance payment.



So the details are coded into a smart contract, stored on the Ethereum blockchain, and when parameters are met in the future, parts of the smart contract auto-execute, all with no human intervention. It has been called (or perhaps promoted as) "the world's supercomputer". To call it a "different option of registering securities" would be akin to teleportation being invented and being calling merely a "different system of transport".

I agree that the blockchain implementation(s) that are most successful in future may not exist now, but it IS implied that Ethereum has a future - otherwise, it is unlikely there would be companies being built on top of this blockchain and unlikely that Air New Zealand would support one of those companies financially.

Of course an implication is not a guarantee and the best idea doesn't always win.

[BlackPeter]

I am not sure if you are grossly oversimplifying on purpose or because you don't understand or I just don't get where you're coming from.

The blockchain may have started as "just" a distributed, decentralized register of value with the original blockchain that underpinned bitcoin, but Ethereum seeks to be much more. One reason it is so popular and why private companies are choosing to build applications on top of the Ethereum blockchain is smart contracts. Here is a copy/paste from an article a couple of months ago about how AXA Insurance is trialing an application built on the Ethereum blockchain.



So the details are coded into a smart contract, stored on the Ethereum blockchain, and when parameters are met in the future, parts of the smart contract auto-execute, all with no human intervention. It has been called (or perhaps promoted as) "the world's supercomputer". To call it a "different option of registering securities" would be akin to teleportation being invented and being calling merely a "different system of transport".

I agree that the blockchain implementation(s) that are most successful in future may not exist now, but it IS implied that Ethereum has a future - otherwise, it is unlikely there would be companies being built on top of this blockchain and unlikely that Air New Zealand would support one of those companies financially.

Of course an implication is not a guarantee and the best idea doesn't always win.

No question that some of the blockchains can do more than "just" registering securities. I replied to some other post and didn't intend to summarise all attributes of some blockchain applications in one post.

Not sure, though how these are relevant in the AIR thread ... or do you know more about AIR's intended application?

[Beagle]

I don’t think Winner is obsessed with diversity - he just realises it is important because years of research has shown that more diverse workplaces are more innovative and thus perform better than those that aren't. Complex problems are best approached by teams with a variety of perspectives.
Unconscious bias describes situations where our background, personal experiences, societal stereotypes and cultural context can impact our decisions and actions without us realising. Making the unconscious conscious will help people make more objective decisions, facilitate inclusive interactions, and create opportunities.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/google-unconscious-bias-training-presentation-2015-12?r=US&IR=T#/#-41

Thanks, I appreciate your perspective and the link supplied. I don't have an issue with diversity either unless like as was recently strongly implied at the recent HBL annual meeting they're looking at racial bias for the sake of it, (an implied quota system for Maori) and for the sake of being politically correct. Anyway back to the subject, I know AIR encourage diversity and their board composition reflects that and I note the company recently won the top governance award.

[Blair]

Not sure, though how these are relevant in the AIR thread ... or do you know more about AIR's intended application?


I talked about the tech underlying the application which AIR is apparently investing in to give people a bit more insight into the types of things that are possible. Apologies if this is offtopic. To be fair I am new to posting here so I was following your lead.

[moka]

I talked about the tech underlying the application which AIR is apparently investing in to give people a bit more insight into the types of things that are possible. Apologies if this is offtopic. To be fair I am new to posting here so I was following your lead.

Thank you Blair for sharing your knowledge re blockchain and trying to make it easier and simpler for some of us who aren’t very tech savvy to understand what it all means. Welcome to the forum. Always good to have another opinion. Interesting that it is something that AIR is investing in - a bit off topic for them to invest in I would have thought but apparently not. More innovative thinking from AIR.

[Beagle]

I am not sure if you are grossly oversimplifying on purpose or because you don't understand or I just don't get where you're coming from.

The blockchain may have started as "just" a distributed, decentralized register of value with the original blockchain that underpinned bitcoin, but Ethereum seeks to be much more. One reason it is so popular and why private companies are choosing to build applications on top of the Ethereum blockchain is smart contracts. Here is a copy/paste from an article a couple of months ago about how AXA Insurance is trialing an application built on the Ethereum blockchain.



So the details are coded into a smart contract, stored on the Ethereum blockchain, and when parameters are met in the future, parts of the smart contract auto-execute, all with no human intervention. It has been called (or perhaps promoted as) "the world's supercomputer". To call it a "different option of registering securities" would be akin to teleportation being invented and being calling merely a "different system of transport".

I agree that the blockchain implementation(s) that are most successful in future may not exist now, but it IS implied that Ethereum has a future - otherwise, it is unlikely there would be companies being built on top of this blockchain and unlikely that Air New Zealand would support one of those companies financially.

Of course an implication is not a guarantee and the best idea doesn't always win.

Appreciate your input mate and welcome to the forum.

[Snow Leopard]

I see that AIR have been trying to fly under the radar in Australia [investigation (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2017/aair/ao-2017-113/)] :scared:.

[Beagle]

I see that AIR have been trying to fly under the radar in Australia [investigation (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2017/aair/ao-2017-113/)] :scared:.

You been sneaking into AIR cockpits and getting your paws on the controls again mate, bad puddy tat, back in the hold with you :)

[Snow Leopard]

It is the '...alerted to the error, but the aircraft continued descent...' bit that could be the real worry.

:scared: :scared: :scared:
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

It is the '...alerted to the error, but the aircraft continued descent...' bit that could be the real worry.

:scared: :scared: :scared:
Paper Tiger

The tale is these pilots are highly trained (you know, thousands of hours of real training) .. nobody needs to tell them after they hit something - they will find out by themselves :scared:

[Beagle]

A simple case of entering the wrong approach figure into the automatic landing system I would think. No dogs, cats or humans were injured and I am sure the pilots will get a thorough reprimand.

[Snow Leopard]

I am not sure I would like to fly with an airline whose pilots make 'simple' mistakes and ignore alerts, and who then dismiss it with a 'well no one got hurt' attitude and merely tell their pilots to try not to do it again.

Makes you wonder if all those posts about other airlines having inferior pilots who only trained on games consoles were just the irrational emotion driven rabid rants of a love-struck blinkered beagle.


Jet fuel $75.60/bbl and uptrend intact.

$3.56 seems so far away now ;).

[Beagle]

Lets see how the investigation proceeds before we start with any more loud meowing shall we...
We all know the resident puddy tat loves to hate on AIR and the beagle loves AIR and I dunno... but I am pretty sure... people are sick of us fighting like cats and dogs about it. Probably just a fat finger (paw) incident and they programmed the wrong first digit into the aircrafts automatic landing system...don't stress go and have a lie down mate, I am sure the investigators will do their job.

[Fatboyj]

I do like it when cats and dogs play together its fun to watch. I'll take the dogs side on this one the cat's sounding slightly cranky. Sour milk?

[Snow Leopard]

Me? I just mentioned the incident, but you had to start the excuse-making yapping.

https://d1ejxu6vysztl5.cloudfront.net/comics/garfield/2017/2017-11-21.gif

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[RTM]

Lets see how the investigation proceeds before we start with any more loud meowing shall we...
We all know the resident puddy tat loves to hate on AIR and the beagle loves AIR and I dunno... but I am pretty sure... people are sick of us fighting like cats and dogs about it. Probably just a fat finger (paw) incident and they programmed the wrong first digit into the aircrafts automatic landing system...don't stress go and have a lie down mate, I am sure the investigators will do their job.

I do recall there was a very serious incident where the wrong parameters were entered. I recall exactly where I was that day when I heard. So probably. not something to be taken to lightly.

[Beagle]

You been sneaking into AIR cockpits and getting your paws on the controls again mate, bad puddy tat, back in the hold with you :)


Me? I just mentioned the incident, but you had to start the excuse-making yapping.

https://d1ejxu6vysztl5.cloudfront.net/comics/garfield/2017/2017-11-21.gif

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Actually wasn't excuse making, just having a bit of fun with ya like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2ZnaWUVEmA and if you think my yapping is annoying check out this lot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7J6SCqK44k

I hear ya RTM...

[Snow Leopard]

Actually wasn't excuse making, just having a bit of fun with ya like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2ZnaWUVEmA....

Sure, have a Tui on me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

On a more positive note, footage of Air New Zealand's new pick up service for Aoraki [Mt Cook] climbers:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL9sNrOlK-I

:)

[Miway]

The risk factor here could be greater than share trading?

[moka]

Was that you jumping into the plane PT?

[Snow Leopard]

Was that you jumping into the plane PT?

I am the third flyer, the one you see at the beginning who misses and tumbles out of the sky.
Luckily Cats always land on their feet.

Unlike Dogs who fall flat on their faces.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Its not unheard of for air traffic control to make a bad call or to make mistakes. Perhaps there was a good reason why the pilots didn't follow ATC instructions. Lets wait for the investigation result before we start casting aspersions on the pilots performance and the airline shall we.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1711/S00968/air-new-zealands-dreamliner-goes-year-round-to-adelaide.htm

[Snow Leopard]

Its not unheard of for air traffic control to make a bad call or to make mistakes. Perhaps there was a good reason why the pilots didn't follow ATC instructions. Lets wait for the investigation result before we start casting aspersions on the pilots performance and the airline shall we....

Well, we had all moved on, but has you bring the subject up again:

Hopefully AIR and it's employees will admit it, if they made a mistake, and not try to shift the blame by insinuation.

[Beagle]

I wonder if AIR pilots have an ignore button like we thankfully do on here ?

In some people's eyes people are guilty until proven innocent and there is no possibility whatsoever that some junior ATC controller made a bad call. Please PT, don't ever try and join the judiciary or any investigative board.

[Snow Leopard]

I have accused AIR of nothing but you will insist on dragging this back up and making excuses and trying to shift blame long before the outcome is actually known.

I see you can still buy tickets to and from Denpasar through AIR, doubt there are many takers at present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1711/S01024/airways-unveils-future-digital-air-traffic-control-tower.htm

Interesting technology that could extend operational hours at N.Z. airports.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11950698

[value_investor]

A lot of profit taking going on by the looks of it since the high of about 3.60 in September. I'm happy to keep on holding for now, but it seems people are getting nervous at the higher crude oil prices.

The results so far on the monthly have been solid yet unspectacular so given the crude oil prices going up, the hedging and the monthly result its anyones guess really on how the company is tracking vs FY 17. I would be very hesitant pricing this at the moment.

[Beagle]

Yields are up 2.8%, RPK's are also up, they're using more fuel efficient aircraft and most of their fuel and currency is hedged. Not that hard to join the dots in my opinion.

Professional analysts forecasts for the next three years http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

[value_investor]

Yields are up 2.8%, RPK's are also up, they're using more fuel efficient aircraft and most of their fuel and currency is hedged. Not that hard to join the dots in my opinion.

Professional analysts forecasts for the next three years http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Last I remember analysts calling on AIR was on a share price less than $2 and then it jumped over $3. I tend not to listen to outside noise too much. The so called analysts have not been kind to AIR.

[Beagle]

Last I remember analysts calling on AIR was on a share price less than $2 and then it jumped over $3. I tend not to listen to outside noise too much. The so called analysts have not been kind to AIR.

I agree with that and note in most cases they simply follow what the company is telling them. I spoke with Chris Luxon after the annual meeting and he assured me he is very confident about prospects going forward. Taking into account the RPK yield information in their monthly operating stat's, the fuel price and the amount of forward cover they have both for currency and oil I don't have any concerns at present and any reason to doubt Chris Luxon's word and I think AIR shares are a sound hold at the current price.

[dobby41]

I spoke with Chris Luxon after the annual meeting and he assured me he is very confident about prospects going forward.

I don't know who you are but I doubt he would say otherwise!
One message for everyone else but a different one just for you? I don't think so.

I don't doubt his word either by the way.

[Beagle]

I quizzed him on a number of matters and concerns not discussed during the annual meeting, that's the value of attending the meeting in person.

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99546606/air-nz-flight-to-japan-returned-to-auckland-after-engine-issues

These new(ish) Dreamliners seem a bit unreliable

Probably just me but when AIR has a problem that goes public it’s aalways seems to be a Dreamliner

[Beagle]

I watched an amazing video of how Rolls Royce build those Trent 1000 engines. 30,000 individual parts many of which have to be baked specially to withstand the temperature.
Inevitable on the odd occasion there is a problem and from other media reports https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/air-nz-flights-engine-shuts-down-mid-flight/ar-BBGeuq5?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp it would appear the staff handled it with aplomb.

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99546606/air-nz-flight-to-japan-returned-to-auckland-after-engine-issues

These new(ish) Dreamliners seem a bit unreliable

Probably just me but when AIR has a problem that goes public it’s aalways seems to be a Dreamliner

Today's announcement [https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311575] says RR engines not up to spec and they are now short of working engines!

[Mush]

Those Trent 1000s are terrible engines. ANA had their whole dreamliner fleet grounded last year

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99636682/investigations-into-air-new-zealand-dreamliner-abnormalities

Quite a few flights cancelled next few days ...hmm

[winner69]

Are planes like cars ....once a lemon always a lemon?


like once broken always sort of broken

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1712/S00219/air-nz-makes-schedule-changes-due-to-maintenance-reqirements.htm

More info..appears there have been two engine events.

[percy]

Are planes like cars ....once a lemon always a lemon?


like once broken always sort of broken

Yes.
Rolls Royce are English.
They should have brought USA GE engines.
A friend of mine was an AIR captain.Flew the Frankfurt route.Could get to sleep with GE engines,but not with Rolls Royce.
So still lemons.

[Benny1]

Apparently the GE engines have just as many problems..
Interested to see what replacement aircraft AIR can secure and how quickly...
The fact they are looking for replacements would suggest this will take a fair while to sort out

[Beagle]

Apparently the GE engines have just as many problems..
Interested to see what replacement aircraft AIR can secure and how quickly...
The fact they are looking for replacements would suggest this will take a fair while to sort out

My speculative guess is Rolls Royce will be picking up the tab for the cost of leasing replacement aircraft as this is a known fault with early Trent 1000 engines
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/01/engine-failures-on-787-dreamliners-prompt-ana-to-refit-entire-fleet Won't surprise me if AIR replace the fan blades on all their early model engines as two engine out events for a small airline running about 12 of these early model engines is a fairly significant statistical event.
Agree with you that GE engines for the Dreamliner have also been plagued with problems.
One wonders if they aren't trying to push fuel efficiency too far with these tech engines ?

[Benny1]

My speculative guess is Rolls Royce will be picking up the tab for the cost of leasing replacement aircraft as this is a known fault with early Trent 1000 engines
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/01/engine-failures-on-787-dreamliners-prompt-ana-to-refit-entire-fleet Won't surprise me if AIR replace the fan blades on all their early model engines as two engine out events for a small airline running about 12 of these early model engines is a fairly significant statistical event.
Agree with you that GE engines for the Dreamliner have also been plagued with problems.
One wonders if they aren't trying to push fuel efficiency too far with these tech engines ?

Yep the new engines certainly seem to be the main cause of problems with modern aircraft. The Airbus NEO aircraft have been delayed significantly due to issues with their new geared turbofan engines.

[value_investor]

"At this stage we do not anticipate any change to current guidance"

Well damn, buckle your seatbelts folks we might be in for a ride. Depending on the wording on the announcement, there isn't a clear indication on how many flights will be cancelled..

[Marilyn Munroe]

The self loading freight on Cullen Airlines 787’s which dip down into the Southern Ocean on their way to Bueneous Aires will be listening nervously for a change in engine noise and scouting for possible icebergs to land on.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[dobby41]

My speculative guess is Rolls Royce will be picking up the tab for the cost of leasing replacement aircraft as this is a known fault with early Trent 1000 engines

They won't pay for reputational damage.
Some of the flights are delayed a long time affecting a lot of downstream travel plans.
Cancelling the flights is worse.

[Benny1]

They won't pay for reputational damage.
Some of the flights are delayed a long time affecting a lot of downstream travel plans.
Cancelling the flights is worse.
Yeah this is the real cost. With this issue effecting this aircraft type around the world it doesn't take long for the travelling public to get anxious about flying this aircraft..
If the 787 were to lose it's 350 minute(?) EDTO rating this could restrict some AIR flights inparticular EZE meaning 777's would have to take over those service's

[Beagle]

"At this stage we do not anticipate any change to current guidance"

Well damn, buckle your seatbelts folks we might be in for a ride. Depending on the wording on the announcement, there isn't a clear indication on how many flights will be cancelled..
Exact wording is here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311575
No need to get too excited. This announcement was released at 1.44 p.m. and the market took it in its stride. Shares were actually one of the top performers on the day.


They won't pay for reputational damage.
Some of the flights are delayed a long time affecting a lot of downstream travel plans.
Cancelling the flights is worse.

**** happens from time to time. They're doing all they can including trying to source replacement aircraft.

[winner69]

List of cancellations and delays

Apparently to be updated regularly

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts#AKSSR57MMM2vslMFiJL7

[Beagle]

Some good news http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11954881

[Fatboyj]

Holy shmolly that pic of 1st class is going on my bucket list! I want to link the photo here but I can't!!.

[RTM]

Holy shmolly that pic of 1st class is going on my bucket list! I want to link the photo here but I can't!!.

Yep...would be great to join the mile high club...dreams are free !

[winner69]

Engine looks a bit of mess

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99660315/photos-air-nzs-damaged-787-engine

Sounds like more than just a little rattle

Comments have renamed Dreamliner as Nightmareliner

[Robomo]

They won't pay for reputational damage.
Some of the flights are delayed a long time affecting a lot of downstream travel plans.
Cancelling the flights is worse.

For the 4 day period 7 - 10 December Air New Zealand have announced 3 return flights (6 sectors) are cancelled (Perth, Osaka, Houston) and varying delays up to 7 hours on 12 flights. Considering that the widebody fleet of 26 planes fly about 50 sectors every day the cancellation rate of 6 of 200 sectors is minimal and forward notice of delays will give most people reasonable time to consider what to do. ANZ will have to accommodate some people I guess and possibly book others on different connecting flights. Of course, that's why we all have travel insurance isn't it?

It looks like there will be some inconvenience to 10% of the travelling public, which is not much more than you get when Auckland Airport is closed with fog. The non-reaction of the Share Market supports this. I rang my broker 15 minutes after the news came through yesterday and he was not aware of any concern from any clients.

[Beagle]

Those on here that think I am nothing but a cheerleader for this stock are in for a big surprise with this post which is as best I can state it my objective summary of where things are at. I am sure more information will come to light in due course but just so people know, seeing as I have been a big supporter of this stock this is as I see it right at the minute.

In my opinion this is a very serious issue. Looking through what's been made publicly available including a print edition report in the Herald on Saturday and comments from AIR's chief operations and standards officer Captain David Morgan, a behind the paywall article on NBR in Friday's edition basically querying why AIR aren't grounding their Dreamliner fleet with some apparent comment from Rolls Royce and having considered the effect this had on ANA when they grounded their entire fleet of 50 Dreamliners and the time taken to overhaul those engines this is an amalgam of what's been reported.

There have been six incidents worldwide on early model Trent 1000 engines. There are variously reported between 300 and 400 of these "early model" engines in service.
Rolls Royce have engineered a new fan blade design which they began installing from late 2016 in these engines and have been retrofitting to earlier engines.
The issue is with an alloy medium stage compressor fan blade that has had a special coating applied to it but that coating is starting to come off and has lead to corrosion issues affecting the integrity of the blades.

AIR's engines will have to be sent to a RR service center in Singapore for retrofitting on the new blades a process that takes just over a month. The ANA program which covers all 100 engines has been reported to be taking up to 3 years. RR have stated they regret the effects upon AIR caused by this problem. I would speculate that seeing as they have no spare engines there is some chance that AIR may be able to recover some of the lease costs incurred if they can find alternative aircraft to cover those out of service.
RR claim the worst effects will be on AIR over the next few weeks gradually abating through to mid 2018.

AIR have nine planes with these early model engines so a total of 18 engines to be retro filled with new fan blades. The most recent two additions to the fleet both have the new fan blade design. It is clear this process will take some time and AIR are scrambling to find replacement aircraft.

In my opinion it is also clear that two incidents in one week on a fleet of 18 engines is a very serious situation. Statistically for AIR with only 18 of these early model engines to have had two engine out incidents out of a worldwide 6 incidents is unfortunate.

AIR have stated that "at this stage" there is no effect on profit guidance and they are focused on securing replacement aircraft..

My opinion:-
The two engines that have experienced incidents have clearly been seriously affected, (photographs supplied in the media speak for themselves) and will require a major overhaul which will take longer than the standard fan blade replacement program. From a public relations point of view I think it is likely that at this stage both AIR and RR are downplaying the seriousness of this issue and its impact upon AIR. They don't want to worry the public and RR don't want to expose themselves to too much liability.
1. Whether AIR can find replacement leased aircraft on acceptable terms at short notice is a key business risk.
2. Whether RR will meet those lease costs is another risk.
3. There is the downstream effect of passengers expecting to turn up to see an AIR aircraft and inflight IFE system and getting something else, this is minor and something that cannot be mitigated other than through very good public relations which is something I am sure AIR will try and do.
4. There is regulatory and safety risk. AIR may be required to ground its fleet of older engines Dreamliners
5. If there is another incident they may elect to ground the fleet even if not forced too.
6. The replacement fan blade program and overhaul of the two affected engines could take longer than anticipated seeing as there are limited service facilities and all other airlines are scrambling to replace the fan blades on their early model engines.

None of these risks appear to have been priced into the shares which actually went up last week despite two serious engine out issues on consecutive days.
What happens this week, next or any other week in the near future if there's another engine shutdown mid flight ?

It doesn't really make sense to me that the share price has gone up when the company risk has also gone up so I reduced my stake this morning. I think its an extremely well managed company and is a very attractive hold but right at the minute I have taken some risk management step's of my own until such time as the effect of the rectification of these engine problems is better understood.

Holders might like to ponder the words "at this stage" no effect on guidance. Its clear that's their "preliminary" view.
I feel seeing I have posted a lot of positive comments on AIR over the years I have a moral obligation to call this situation as I see it and post it on here.
Disc: I am not "short" AIR stock, (still own a modest stake) and am not trying to talk it down but I did significantly reduce my stake this morning. Hopefully everything will turn out okay and AIR and RR will manage this process well and if so I will look forward to taking a meaningful stake again as soon as the business risk has materially diminished.

[BlackPeter]

Those on here that think I am nothing but a cheerleader for this stock are in for a big surprise with this post which is as best I can state it my objective summary of where things are at. I am sure more information will come to light in due course but just so people know, seeing as I have been a big supporter of this stock this is as I see it right at the minute.

In my opinion this is a very serious issue. Looking through what's been made publicly available including a print edition report in the Herald on Saturday and comments from AIR's chief operations and standards officer Captain David Morgan, a behind the paywall article on NBR in Friday's edition basically querying why AIR aren't grounding their Dreamliner fleet with some apparent comment from Rolls Royce and having considered the effect this had on ANA when they grounded their entire fleet of 50 Dreamliners and the time taken to overhaul those engines this is an amalgam of what's been reported.

There have been six incidents worldwide on early model Trent 1000 engines. There are variously reported between 300 and 400 of these "early model" engines in service.
Rolls Royce have engineered a new fan blade design which they began installing from late 2016 in these engines and have been retrofitting to earlier engines.
The issue is with an alloy medium stage compressor fan blade that has had a special coating applied to it but that coating is starting to come off and has lead to corrosion issues affecting the integrity of the blades.

AIR's engines will have to be sent to a RR service center in Singapore for retrofitting on the new blades a process that takes just over a month. The ANA program which covers all 100 engines has been reported to be taking up to 3 years. RR have stated they regret the effects upon AIR caused by this problem. I would speculate that seeing as they have no spare engines there is some chance that AIR may be able to recover some of the lease costs incurred if they can find alternative aircraft to cover those out of service.
RR claim the worst effects will be on AIR over the next few weeks gradually abating through to mid 2018.

AIR have nine planes with these early model engines so a total of 18 engines to be retro filled with new fan blades. The most recent two additions to the fleet both have the new fan blade design. It is clear this process will take some time and AIR are scrambling to find replacement aircraft.

In my opinion it is also clear that two incidents in one week on a fleet of 18 engines is a very serious situation. Statistically for AIR with only 18 of these early model engines to have had two engine out incidents out of a worldwide 6 incidents is unfortunate.

AIR have stated that "at this stage" there is no effect on profit guidance and they are focused on securing replacement aircraft..

My opinion:-
The two engines that have experienced incidents have clearly been seriously affected, (photographs supplied in the media speak for themselves) and will require a major overhaul which will take longer than the standard fan blade replacement program. From a public relations point of view I think it is likely that at this stage both AIR and RR are downplaying the seriousness of this issue and its impact upon AIR. They don't want to worry the public and RR don't want to expose themselves to too much liability.
1. Whether AIR can find replacement leased aircraft on acceptable terms at short notice is a key business risk.
2. Whether RR will meet those lease costs is another risk.
3. There is the downstream effect of passengers expecting to turn up to see an AIR aircraft and inflight IFE system and getting something else, this is minor and something that cannot be mitigated other than through very good public relations which is something I am sure AIR will try and do.
4. There is regulatory and safety risk. AIR may be required to ground its fleet of older engines Dreamliners
5. If there is another incident they may elect to ground the fleet even if not forced too.
6. The replacement fan blade program and overhaul of the two affected engines could take longer than anticipated seeing as there are limited service facilities and all other airlines are scrambling to replace the fan blades on their early model engines.

None of these risks appear to have been priced into the shares which actually went up last week despite two serious engine out issues on consecutive days.
What happens this week, next or any other week in the near future if there's another engine shutdown mid flight ?

It doesn't really make sense to me that the share price has gone up when the company risk has also gone up so I reduced my stake this morning. I think its an extremely well managed company and is a very attractive hold but right at the minute I have taken some risk management step's of my own until such time as the effect of the rectification of these engine problems is better understood.

Holders might like to ponder the words "at this stage" no effect on guidance. Its clear that's their "preliminary" view.
I feel seeing I have posted a lot of positive comments on AIR over the years I have a moral obligation to call this situation as I see it.

Great analysis - and I think a timely notice for SH to manage their expectations and review their portfolios.

Agree as well with AIR being a well managed company, though I hope they learn from this incident that it is not always a good idea to rely too much on new and unproven engines / planes, even if they promise to be more fuel efficient. Too many eggs in one untested basket?

Looks like their "clever move" to buy lots of new (fuel efficient) planes is now coming back to bite them.

[couta1]

The Air SP was heading up regardless of the latest engine issues, the bollie bands were sqeeuzed up tightly last week and the price was always going to head North. PS-Would be different if an Air bird had crashed though.

[winner69]

Is serious when the TAIC and Civil Aviation show concern.

Just as well it’s the A320’s flying up and down the country all day long is what makes most of AIRs profits ....and they still have those 777’s to pull them through on cash cow routes.

Be interesting to see what eventuates ...not a good time of the year for this to happen

At least the pipeline from Marsden Point still working

[iceman]

Good summary Beagle. Thanks. Not sure what to think of it all. I'm booked to fly on one of those machines from Buenos Aires to Auckland next week so watching their announcements with great interest !!

[Beagle]

Good summary Beagle. Thanks. Not sure what to think of it all. I'm booked to fly on one of those machines from Buenos Aires to Auckland next week so watching their announcements with great interest !!

You're welcome mate. I'm not sure what to make of it either but I think its incredibly unfortunate that AIR experienced two incidents on consecutive days. The fact that Civil aviation are investigating gives you a clue that there may be more to this than meets the eye. Anyway...I have been told some information in confidence that I feel I can't post on the forum. I have sold the rest of my shares. Sorry folks but I have to respect that source. The risk of another event and the business risks of the existing events is not correctly reflected in the share price at this point in time in my opinion.

[Baa_Baa]

You're welcome mate. I'm not sure what to make of it either but I think its incredibly unfortunate that AIR experienced two incidents on consecutive days. The fact that Civil aviation are investigating gives you a clue that there may be more to this than meets the eye. Anyway...I have been told some information in confidence that I feel I can't post on the forum. I have sold the rest of my shares. Sorry folks but I have to respect that source. The risk of another event and the business risks of the existing events is not correctly reflected in the share price at this point in time in my opinion.

Thanks for the heads-up Beagle and your analysis and honesty about mitigating your shareholding risks by completely selling out. It is confounding that the SP continues upwards, but one could take that as opportunity to sell into strength, while the market does take time to absorb the media reports and the weasel words from RR and Air, well spotted by you the statement "at this stage". I'd be considering another mitigation, of not flying in one of those planes with the dodgy engines, and I'm a bit surprised that Air with their impeccable safety record haven't just grounded all the planes until further notice, albeit a big call commercially and for shareholders.

[Snow Leopard]

So Beagle has gone from one extreme to the other, as he always does.

Anyway you can now fly Hi Fly and eat paella:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11957358

Lol
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

So Beagle has gone from one extreme to the other, as he always does.

Anyway you can now fly Hi Fly and eat paella:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11957358

Lol
Paper Tiger

Your 13 year campaign of negativity is the stuff of legend around here PT. My posts this morning are objective and some material info I have cannot be posted.
Great that AIR have secured some replacement capacity so quickly, they'll need it. Its a well managed company that is presently encountering a major headwind.
Once we see how they travel through the challenges they face I'll be more than happy to be a shareholder in this well managed company again. In the meantime I used the funds to add to my position in PPH.

[Snow Leopard]

and a little pipeline 'scare' yesterday apparently:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11957111

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

I proactively manage my portfolio to achieve a good risk adjusted portfolio return including a good balance of dividends and capital gains. You of course are welcome to take any approach you like PT.

[Chinesekiwi]

Iceman - you will be travelling on a 777 200 or 777 300.

You will not be on a 787 Dreamliner.


Good summary Beagle. Thanks. Not sure what to think of it all. I'm booked to fly on one of those machines from Buenos Aires to Auckland next week so watching their announcements with great interest !!

[Benny1]

Iceman - you will be travelling on a 777 200 or 777 300.

You will not be on a 787 Dreamliner.

787's still scheduled on those services as far as I know. Definitely not 777-300...

[Fatboyj]

Your 13 year campaign of negativity is the stuff of legend around here PT

That's hilarious 13 years of this stuff I'm a four month noob and seen many many examples in the crypto thread how do ya'll put up with it? Ignore button would help I suppose.
So its fair to say he went from

9328

to this

9329

or has he always been a grumpy puss :mellow:

[percy]

On Sharetrader Paper Tiger is the contributor whose posts I respect the most.

[Joshuatree]

Throw in my 6 years or so plus many others and its got to be a record not to be proud of lol.

[Beagle]

That's hilarious 13 years of this stuff I'm a four month noob and seen many many examples in the crypto thread how do ya'll put up with it? Ignore button would help I suppose.
So its fair to say he went from

9328

to this

9329

or has he always been a grumpy puss :mellow:

One of the best things you can do as a newbie is to go right back to the start of the thread you are reading and on the odd occasion such as this one certain posters "very kindly" make their bias clear right from the outset.

I am surprised the shares are still trending up but quite philosophical about it. Perhaps the pending inclusion in the NZX20 index is having an impact.

[couta1]

On Sharetrader Paper Tiger is the contributor whose posts I respect the most. I respect anyone I deem to be honest about their success and failures and actually have skin in the game, the rest is just BS.

[percy]

I respect anyone I deem to be honest about their success and failures and actually have skin in the game, the rest is just BS.

BS and noise,and too many novice investors, mistaking noise for knowledge.!

[Joshuatree]

Trouble is you have to take everything with again of salt on here and elsewhere. You can deem all you want and its only your opinion for you . I have little respect for big noters.It all comes down to DYOR and NEVER allow yourself to be influenced by ANYBODY. Some great resources and sharing on here but when it comes to making and losing money some human beings have no scruples at all and will be wolves in sheeps clothing. i find share trader one of the better chat sites.

[iceman]

Iceman - you will be travelling on a 777 200 or 777 300.

You will not be on a 787 Dreamliner.

At this stage AIR tells me the Dreamliner is scheduled for that flight. They could replace it with the 777-200 which they used on this route before the Dreamliners.

[brend]

787's still scheduled on those services as far as I know. Definitely not 777-300...

correct.

for those that are interested. One of the wet lease aircrafts is en-route...crew and all.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9h-fox/#fcae5f1
http://www.hifly.aero/en/a340/9h-fox.html

I really wish AIR would disclose some more information? Who is paying for this AIR or RR?

p.s good analysis Roger...


At this stage AIR tells me the Dreamliner is scheduled for that flight. They could replace it with the 777-200 which they used on this route before the Dreamliners.

Interesting that tonight they cancelled a flight to Houston which is a 777-200 route..

[Beagle]

Thanks Brend. Like you I wish AIR were more forthcoming but I doubt we'll ever be told. I am sure the exact details of who is paying for what will be commercially sensitive and RR will ensure any deal they agree to is subject to a confidentiality agreement. Even if RR do agree to pick up the tab for the lease of these aircraft those fuel hungry 4 engine A340's are not cheap to run by any means, one wonders who picks up the tab for the substantial extra fuel it'll burn over the ensuing months. Plenty of fodder here for the new general legal counsel of AIR to get her teeth stuck into...
More concerning however is I feel AIR are not being forthcoming on exactly what happened to those two engines and any collateral damage to the aircraft so as not to scare the travelling public nor do I feel they being scrupulously honest about the risk of another engine failure. Bad luck happens in 3's ?

Yeah this is the real cost. With this issue effecting this aircraft type around the world it doesn't take long for the travelling public to get anxious about flying this aircraft..
If the 787 were to lose it's 350 minute(?) EDTO rating this could restrict some AIR flights inparticular EZE meaning 777's would have to take over those service's
Good point Civil aviation could feasibly make this call at any stage given the well known issues with this engine and the two failures last week or worse, ground the entire older version RR powered 787 fleet. How it affected ANA https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/01/engine-failures-on-787-dreamliners-prompt-ana-to-refit-entire-fleet

[Chinesekiwi]

From this Saturday the plan is for the 787 to swap out with most probably a 777 300.

Either way - you're going :)


At this stage AIR tells me the Dreamliner is scheduled for that flight. They could replace it with the 777-200 which they used on this route before the Dreamliners.

[brend]

Thanks Brend. Like you I wish AIR were more forthcoming but I doubt we'll ever be told. I am sure the exact details of who is paying for what will be commercially sensitive and RR will ensure any deal they agree to is subject to a confidentiality agreement.

If my facts are incorrect, let me know. When I read the article it said that maintenance on the engines would have to be done earlier than expected. It clearly means it’s a question of “when” or “if”. They knew the engines had a problem but surely not enough for safety issues...but it concerns me, feels like ignorance.

it would be a big blow if this aircraft lost its 330 min Etops
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2015-12-02/air-new-zealand-777-makes-first-330-minute-etops-flight

http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/dinamic-content/media/Executive%20Briefing%206%20-%20RR%20Totalcare%20-%20Mtg%20the%20Needs%20of%20Key%20Customers%20%20-%208%20Mar%2010%20v9.pdf

Links for those interested

[winner69]

Jet fuel approaching US$80 can’t be helping profits

[Beagle]

If my facts are incorrect, let me know. When I read the article it said that maintenance on the engines would have to be done earlier than expected. It clearly means it’s a question of “when” or “if”. They knew the engines had a problem but surely not enough for safety issues...but it concerns me, feels like ignorance.

it would be a big blow if this aircraft lost its 330 min Etops
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2015-12-02/air-new-zealand-777-makes-first-330-minute-etops-flight

http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/dinamic-content/media/Executive%20Briefing%206%20-%20RR%20Totalcare%20-%20Mtg%20the%20Needs%20of%20Key%20Customers%20%20-%208%20Mar%2010%20v9.pdf

Links for those interested

ANA who were an early adopters have 100 of these engines and experienced 3 engine failures last year, (3% failure rate). RR are claiming this issue can be managed through maintenance and claimed ANA experienced early failures were due to the number of shorter cycles on the engines. RR and AIR are supposed to have learned something from this YET AIR have just 18 of these engines used predominantly on longer flights and Captain David Morgan confirmed in the print article of the N.Z. Herald on Saturday they had been following RR's technical service bulletins stringently and yet they have had two engine failures (11.1% failure rate). Hmmmm.

[see weed]

ANA who were an early adopters have 100 of these engines and experienced 3 engine failures last year, (3% failure rate). RR are claiming this issue can be managed through maintenance and claimed ANA experienced early failures were due to the number of shorter cycles on the engines. RR and AIR are supposed to have learned something from this YET AIR have just 18 of these engines used predominantly on longer flights and Captain David Morgan confirmed in the print article of the N.Z. Herald on Saturday they had been following RR's technical service bulletins stringently and yet they have had two engine failures (11.1% failure rate). Hmmmm.
Thanks for all the info Beags but have already stripped AIR in Sept-Oct at great profit plus divs. to buy up large of HLG:D. So what's the next cab off the ramp....SCL, PPH or ATM again in January;)?

[Beagle]

You're most welcome mate. PPH being added to the NZX50 this Friday and for what its worth that's where I reinvested my AIR funds.

[Snow Leopard]

Just found my Air New Zealand Airpoints card snuggling in the back of a draw with his mates from Qantas & Virgin Oz!

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence (and thrice is enemy action!).

Even given this Trent 1000 fault, known about for over a year, results in the odd engine occasionally and unexpectedly throwing a wobbly or worse a blade it still seems that AIR have been particularly unlucky having two engines go in two days.
So they join the growing ranks of airlines that have some of their Dreamliners sitting around waiting for better engine bits.

They reckon it is a 3 year program (so 2 to go ?) to fix all these dodgy engines, but where AIR are in the queue I know not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[freddagg]

You're welcome mate. I'm not sure what to make of it either but I think its incredibly unfortunate that AIR experienced two incidents on consecutive days. The fact that Civil aviation are investigating gives you a clue that there may be more to this than meets the eye. Anyway...I have been told some information in confidence that I feel I can't post on the forum. I have sold the rest of my shares. Sorry folks but I have to respect that source. The risk of another event and the business risks of the existing events is not correctly reflected in the share price at this point in time in my opinion.

Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?

[dobby41]

Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?

Only if you are a dog it seems.
The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.

[stoploss]

Only if you are a dog it seems.
The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.

As the situation/information changes ,so should your investment decisions .

[Jantar]

Only if you are a dog it seems.
The Beagle has swung from spruiking AIR no matter what to dropping it like a hot potatoe.
I also decreased my holding in AIR over the past couple of weeks, but still have a very small holding. Bought THL and HLG as replacements and smiling all the way. :D

[Beagle]

Is it now legal to trade based on information not available to the market ?

It has been for quite some time, its all a question of materiality. For example Summerset restricted persons can still trade shares right up to half way through the final month in a quarter even though they have a pretty good idea how the sales will go for that quarter to be released to the stock exchange in the first week or so of the following quarter. The rules are not as black and white as some investors would like to think. FYI I formed my own opinion on the seriousness of the engine issue from a variety of sources and posted that more or less in real time as I was selling. The additional information is from a poster on here and may or may not be reliable and is unsubstantiated. I believe he knows what he's talking about but doesn't want to go on record with it and neither do I. I have invested a lot of time sharing my thoughts on this company over the years and have posted all known information from verifiable sources as quickly as I can. You can't ask more than that from anyone on here. Good luck to holders and I look forward to being a shareholder again when this issue has been de-risked.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6598a4f3/market-close-nz-shares-edge-up-as-nzx-leads-late-recovery-air-nz-falls.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20edge%2 0up%20as%20NZX%20leads%20late%20recovery%20Air%20N Z%20falls&utm_content=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20edge%20 up%20as%20NZX%20leads%20late%20recovery%20Air%20NZ %20falls+CID_f1fb59f36b749ed5e1ecebaead3c0e73&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle6598a4f3market-close-nz-shares-edge-up-as-nzx-leads-late-recovery-air-nz-fallshtml

P.S.My take on the monthly operating stat's. YTD RASK excl FX is up 2.6%.
Last month YTD RASK was up 2.8% which was a nice increase from the month before that at 2.1%.
If I was a holder I would like to have seen ongoing improvement in the YTD RASK to somewhere 3% plus as you'd really want to see this against a backdrop of especially low yields this time last year when ten new entrants were badly affecting yields with their uneconomic opening specials and the much higher prevailing fuel prices this year. I think given this the YTD RASK improvement latest data is a little lower than I would like it to be and clearly the market seems a little underwhelmed today. Sure they have good forward cover on the exchange rate and oil prices for the rest of this year but we're almost half way through the year now and yields haven't materially recovered from the fiercely completive level's prevailing this time last year. That sad the monthly operating stat's are not too bad and I would have remained a holder were it not for other (in my view), more pertinent issues.

[RTM]

So Beagle has gone from one extreme to the other, as he always does.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11957358

Lol
Paper Tiger

Yes he has PT. We saw that with HBL as well. But is that so wrong ? I appreciate him laying out his thoughts and then sharing the action he's taken. Roger's approach is not for everyone, but one thing I do like, especially in comparison to my investment style, is that he does seem very decisive and acts on the information he has. I tend to sit and stew a lot longer, sometimes until it is to late to take any action, preferring to ride it out knowing that with most stocks there will be ups and downs.

I think I am going to take this approach with this hiccup with Air New Zealand as well. All companies are going to have hiccups along the way. And then you rely on the calibre of the management to do their job effectively. I believe / hope that they are doing this.

Best,
RTM

[winner69]

Pretty solid operating stats for November

Short haul continues to experience double digit revenue growth and long haul had a positive month

So YTD passenger revenues about 6% ahead of last year .....that's pretty good

[Joshuatree]

It looks good to me. And the engine prob easily manageable.

"At this stage, we do not anticipate any change to current guidance. "


"Air New Zealand has leased two aircraft to help maintain its timetable during the unscheduled maintenance of some Rolls-Royce engines on its 787-9 fleet."




“Unfortunately, around 4,500 customers have been affected by international flight delays and a small number of cancellations over the past week. Once these two additional aircraft are in service we will be able to operate a near normal timetable,” Ms Hawthorne says.

[peat]

this engine stuff is all just 'maintenance' sooner than expected causing 'limited' cancellations. :p
Unlimited cancellations would be quite bad so its encouraging to hear they are limited.

The market certainly hasn't liked something this morning with AIR falling 3% during the morning session.
It did have a similar fall one week ago, so it could just be the natural order.
The critical area in my opinion will be 3.10 , if it goes through that then we could easily see 2.60

[Benny1]

this engine stuff is all just 'maintenance' sooner than expected causing 'limited' cancellations. :p
Unlimited cancellations would be quite bad so its encouraging to hear they are limited.

The market certainly hasn't liked something this morning with AIR falling 3% during the morning session.
It did have a similar fall one week ago, so it could just be the natural order.
The critical area in my opinion will be 3.10 , if it goes through that then we could easily see 2.60
Having 3 Aircraft grounded with no guarantee's that the ones still flying won't suffer another engine incident is more than just "Maintenance "
Will be interested to see the punters reaction to the leased aircraft and crews...

[Baa_Baa]

Having 3 Aircraft grounded with no guarantee's that the ones still flying won't suffer another engine incident is more than just "Maintenance "
Will be interested to see the punters reaction to the leased aircraft and crews...

I agree, 10 cents off today looks like the 'news' is taking effect, eyes on for proactive investors, this share can react big time either way on pretty much any news. That on top of a slow declining trend for the past 6 months, now below the 50EMA (again) and horizontal support at around 3.15 slightly above the lower Bollinger, and 200 MA support it might pay to be alert.

[peat]

.... more than just "Maintenance "

yep , thats what I was saying
hence the :p

[Raz]

I agree, 10 cents off today looks like the 'news' is taking effect, eyes on for proactive investors, this share can react big time either way on pretty much any news. That on top of a slow declining trend for the past 6 months, now below the 50EMA (again) and horizontal support at around 3.15 slightly above the lower Bollinger, and 200 MA support it might pay to be alert.

Nice, best post here for a while...

[Benny1]

yep , thats what I was saying
hence the :p
Ahh right sorry ! Fair enough 😃. Do agree with you that sub $3.10 could be a telling mark...
A price with a 2 in front of it could start to look a little interesting....

[Joshuatree]

Nothing to be sorry about peat was being about as clear as winnie the pooh pretending to be a cloud,!!:D. watching(and holding) this stock closely. Storm in a teacup maybe/maybe not.

[Beagle]

Having 3 Aircraft grounded with no guarantee's that the ones still flying won't suffer another engine incident is more than just "Maintenance "
Will be interested to see the punters reaction to the leased aircraft and crews...

How many more engine failures will it take for Civil Aviation to step in and ground the Dreamliner fleet ? One more, two more or will their current investigation result in exactly that ? But this is just a maintenance issue right...

[freddagg]

[QUOTE=Beagle;696251]It has been for quite some time, its all a question of materiality. For example Summerset restricted persons can still trade shares right up to half way through the final month in a quarter even though they have a pretty good idea how the sales will go for that quarter to be released to the stock exchange in the first week or so of the following quarter. The rules are not as black and white as some investors would like to think. FYI I formed my own opinion on the seriousness of the engine issue from a variety of sources and posted that more or less in real time as I was selling. The additional information is from a poster on here and may or may not be reliable and is unsubstantiated. I believe he knows what he's talking about but doesn't want to go on record with it and neither do I. I have invested a lot of time sharing my thoughts on this company over the years and have posted all known information from verifiable sources as quickly as I can. You can't ask more than that from anyone on here. Good luck to holders and I look forward to being a shareholder again when this issue has been de-risked.

Thanks for the response Beagle, appreciate it.

[ratkin]

How many more engine failures will it take for Civil Aviation to step in and ground the Dreamliner fleet ? One more, two more or will their current investigation result in exactly that ? But this is just a maintenance issue right...

Like a newly divorced man you cannot help but keep wondering what your ex is up to

[Beagle]

Like a newly divorced man you cannot help but keep wondering what your ex is up to

I might want to remarry at some stage soon lol

[Joshuatree]

Good bounce today finishing on the high for the day $3.27 2% up on good vol. So far so good, round one to the optimistic value buyers.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11959800

Good stuff, a great cheap place to go and taking advantage of the gap left by Emirates.

Interestingly having called QAN overpriced a number of times relative to AIR its interesting to note they're now firmly in correction territory down from ~ $A6.50 to ~ $A5.20.
The mind boggles a bit with the wisdom of the company effectively using debt to buy back its own shares recently as high as $A6.50.

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11959800

Good stuff, a great cheap place to go and taking advantage of the gap left by Emirates.

Interestingly having called QAN overpriced a number of times relative to AIR its interesting to note they're now firmly in correction territory down from ~ $A6.50 to ~ $A5.20.
The mind boggles a bit with the wisdom of the company effectively using debt to buy back its own shares recently as high as $A6.50.

Time to buy back your lot eh Beagle ;)

[Beagle]

Time to buy back your lot eh Beagle ;)

LOL good one mate, touché

P.S. AIR gains entry into the NZX20 from 18 December. Watch for a possible spike in the SP in the closing 15 minute match process this afternoon.
Some might want to take advantage of that info one way or the other...

[Joshuatree]

Up another 3c to $3.30 today on 3 mill plus vol.Largest daily vol this year.;)

[Beagle]

Index rebalancing JT...see comment directly above and post #12660. PPH affected "just a little" too ;)

[Joshuatree]

So far so good recovery wise. Rising tide a good start to our weekend :)Rog

[blackcap]

So far so good recovery wise. Rising tide a good start to our weekend :)Rog

How can you invest in AIR JT? Good old Sir John is on the board :)

[Snow Leopard]

...Largest daily vol this year.;) :confused:

except for twelve other days:
Date Volume
2017-06-21 19103904
2017-03-10 5019690
2017-03-02 4340161
2017-09-12 4007918
2017-02-23 3815025
2017-03-09 3705438
2017-06-14 3674792
2017-02-28 3529473
2017-06-15 3464225
2017-06-01 3402570
2017-03-06 3371196
2017-11-22 3208055

[Joshuatree]

Thanks pT. I went off the one year NZX chart and it was the highest. I guess your figs include the ASX maybe and off mkt trades. Anyways its the price recovery im focused on.
blackcap i visualise the toilet floor sliding back while he's in their grooming 30,000 feet up.:D

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks pT. I went off the one year NZX chart and it was the highest. I guess your figs include the ASX maybe and off mkt trades. Anyways its the price recovery im focused on.
blackcap i visualise the toilet floor sliding back while he's in their grooming 30,000 feet up.:D

My goodness, the NZX AIR Chart Volume appears to be a work of fiction.

The volume for today, (which includes Off Market, but not the ASX) is correct.

Every other value I would give less credence to.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: AIR is overvalued, especially with those dodgy fuel-efficient dreamers dropping engines left right and center :p.

[dreamcatcher]

US shale recovery will push oil market into a surplus early next year


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-shale-recovery-push-oil-085959205.html

[winner69]

Air China this time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99927014/air-china-flight-returns-to-auckland-after-losing-navigation-communication-and-radar-systems-in-engine-failure

Flightaware.com says was a Dreamliner

Think I’ll avoid those planes for a while ....dreadful planes to fly in anyway

[iceman]

Air China this time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99927014/air-china-flight-returns-to-auckland-after-losing-navigation-communication-and-radar-systems-in-engine-failure

Flightaware.com says was a Dreamliner

Think I’ll avoid those planes for a while ....dreadful planes to fly in anyway

I'm pleased to say Air NZ has changed my flight from EZE on Wednesday from Dreamliner to 777-200. Unlike you winner, I loved traveling in them but they have a serious confidence issue to deal with here.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Air China this time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99927014/air-china-flight-returns-to-auckland-after-losing-navigation-communication-and-radar-systems-in-engine-failure

Flightaware.com says was a Dreamliner

Think I’ll avoid those planes for a while ....dreadful planes to fly in anyway

Some armchair guesswork from an actress whose skill was looking good on camera not aircraft engineering.

These incidents are departures from Auckland in summer on long oceanic flights. The heat and weight of extra fuel may require the pilot to push the throttle forward further than usual taking off placing stress on the engines.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[777]

Some armchair guesswork from an actress whose skill was looking good on camera not aircraft engineering.

These incidents are departures from Auckland in summer on long oceanic flights. The heat and weight of extra fuel may require the pilot to push the throttle forward further than usual taking off placing stress on the engines.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

SO how does your theory apply to all the airports in equatorial regions. Singapore, Dubai, Doha. Regularly up tin the 40's c.

Auckland has the odd day over the mid 20's c. Very temperate.

Stick to your posing for the camera.

[Beagle]

Air China this time.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99927014/air-china-flight-returns-to-auckland-after-losing-navigation-communication-and-radar-systems-in-engine-failure

Flightaware.com says was a Dreamliner

Think I’ll avoid those planes for a while ....dreadful planes to fly in anyway

And another one bites the dust. Seven engines down now and starting to fail at a slightly alarming rate now they are starting to accumulate some time on them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfomloUg2Gw If you can stand the RR PR they say that the engine casing is designed to protect the aircraft in the event of an fan blade coming adrift. Video contains an example of such, sorry can't stomach watching this again and pin pointing at what point in the video this happens BUT a "little birdie" told me just as in the Air china incident AIR's Dreamliner rego ZK-NZE suffered quite some damage and will be grounded for quite some time until Boeing can fix it. Worth noting the engine casing that protects the aircrafts critical systems and fuel tanks is only 2.5mm thick.


I'm pleased to say Air NZ has changed my flight from EZE on Wednesday from Dreamliner to 777-200. Unlike you winner, I loved traveling in them but they have a serious confidence issue to deal with here.
I am pleased for you mate. This issue is serious enough in my view such that I would not currently choose to book a Dreamliner flight. Not trying to be a scaremonger but now we have three failures in quick succession its crystal clear to me this is an extremely serious issue. How many more must fail before Civil aviation steps in and grounds all AIR planes with early variant Trent 1000 engines ?


SO how does your theory apply to all the airports in equatorial regions. Singapore, Dubai, Doha. Regularly up tin the 40's c.

Auckland has the odd day over the mid 20's c. Very temperate.

Stick to your posing for the camera.

Maybe, maybe not. Is it just a coincidence then that of the tens of thousands of operated flights over the years with this Trent 1000 engine type failures worldwide since this engine variant commenced in service many years have in total been seven BUT three of these seven failures have been on flights leaving Auckland in the last ten days when it has been most unusually hot here lately for this time of year ? Maybe its a combination of heat and humidity ? How do you explain this remarkable coincidence ?

Is this just an alarming coincidence or are these fan blades and the corrosion thereof now reaching a point where the structural integrity of these blades may now present a clear danger to the travelling public ?
I don't believe in the likelihood of such a remarkable coincidence especially now we have had three failures in very quick succession. Where there is smoke there is fire and without in any way pretending to be a jet engine engineer there is clearly a growing body of evidence that we have a very serious problem with these engines. RR official line as annunciated in a behind the paywall article on NBR Friday last week is that this will inconvenience AIR for the remainder of 2017 with the inconvenience gradually abating through the first half of 2018. For people who believe their PR they go on to say this issue can be managed through maintenance.
I understand this maintenance includes very short inspection intervals of the affected fan blades while airlines await fitment of new design blades. Disc: Looking forward to being a shareholder again in this great company when this issue has been properly fixed.

[Beagle]

M
PS: AIR is overvalued, especially with those dodgy fuel-efficient dreamers dropping engines left right and center :p.

Very prophetic...left right and center it is !! I feel the shares are fair value but not while the airline faces the risks it presently does. Some people like to proactively manage their portfolio in a prudent manner to obtain an optimal return based on potential risks and rewards...others take a more relaxed approach. Time will tell which approach is better but it would be fair to say I am very happy indeed with my portfolio reallocation this last week with PPH up nearly 20%.

[iceman]

And another one bites the dust. Seven engines down now and starting to fail at a slightly alarming rate now they are starting to accumulate some time on them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfomloUg2Gw If you can stand the RR PR they say that the engine casing is designed to protect the aircraft in the event of an fan blade coming adrift. Video contains an example of such, sorry can't stomach watching this again and pin pointing at what point in the video this happens BUT a "little birdie" told me just as in the Air china incident AIR's Dreamliner rego ZK-NZE suffered quite some damage and will be grounded for quite some time until Boeing can fix it. Worth noting the engine casing that protects the aircrafts critical systems and fuel tanks is only 2.5mm thick.


I am pleased for you mate. This issue is serious enough in my view such that I would not currently choose to book a Dreamliner flight. Not trying to be a scaremonger but now we have three failures in quick succession its crystal clear to me this is an extremely serious issue. How many more must fail before Civil aviation steps in and grounds all AIR planes with early variant Trent 1000 engines ?



I am totally with you on this one Beagle. I have been a frequent user of Air's Dreamliners on long overseas (literally) routes. I will not be booking any more Dreamliner flights with them and will rather book alternative airlines with indirect (more) flights to get to my destination. I think their silence on this issue is appalling. Have also sold my AIR shares because of this issue. Not impressed.

[winner69]

That Dreamliner ZK-NZF which had problems en route to EZE was back up and flying 2 days later

Today it’s heading to Osaka according to Flightradar24

Must have been all fixed up

[ratkin]

That Dreamliner ZK-NZF which had problems en route to EZE was back up and flying 2 days later

Today it’s heading to Tokyo according to Flightradar24

Must have been all fixed up

Storm in a Beagle cup. Air Nz officially now the worlds worst airline, until Beagle buys again.

[Beagle]

That Dreamliner ZK-NZF which had problems en route to EZE was back up and flying 2 days later

Today it’s heading to Tokyo according to Flightradar24

Must have been all fixed up

Yeap a little birdie told me that they scavenged the one remaining good engine off ZK-NZE to fix up ZK-NZF seeing as the former will be grounded for quite some considerable time. At one point they had 4 of their shiny new $150m birds sitting sadly on the tarmac looking "winged", now 3.

[Beagle]

Storm in a Beagle cup. Air Nz officially now the worlds worst airline, until Beagle buys again.

You can put your own "slant" on it and are perfectly entitled to your point of view. It is not AIR's fault, surely you understand this is a Rolls Royce issue ? However I do feel AIR could be more forthcoming regarding what happened to ZK-NZE but obviously for commercial reasons they don't want to alarm the travelling public. AIR are managing this the best way they can and it is a very good company and very well managed. They are being let down by Rolls Royce.

Why exactly do you think that three of these engine failures in ten days is completely irrelevant ? How can you be sure there won't be more failures and what makes you so sure that there is no risk to the fuselage or critical flight systems of other aircraft. 2.5mm engine casing is impenetrable right...or is it ?

[iceman]

Storm in a Beagle cup. Air Nz officially now the worlds worst airline, until Beagle buys again.

As a traveler on these birds this is no storm in any cup. This is real **** that AIR has dealt with extremely poorly and will lose a lot of business if they dont sort it soon. How many of these incidents do you think we need before the public says NO to traveling on these engines and planes (by connection) ?

[Snow Leopard]

I am totally with you on this one Beagle. I have been a frequent user of Air's Dreamliners on long overseas (literally) routes. I will not be booking any more Dreamliner flights with them and will rather book alternative airlines with indirect (more) flights to get to my destination. I think their silence on this issue is appalling. Have also sold my AIR shares because of this issue. Not impressed.

To be honest you want to check if the airline you are intending to fly with has any RR powered 787s and if so avoid them.

If the RR 787s are grounded world wide then that can affect the entire airline and have a knock on effect on their other services.
LAN/LATAM for instance have RR 787s.

I have only been booking with 787 free and GE powered 787 airlines (such as Qatar, China Southern etc).

Best Wishes
Flying Tiger

[winner69]

Do all 12(?) AIR Dreamliners have Trent 1000 or Trent 1000 TEN engines?

And will these TEN versions start having same problems in a year or two?

[Beagle]

Do all 12(?) AIR Dreamliners have Trent 1000 or Trent 1000 TEN engines?

And will these TEN versions start having same problems in a year or two?

I understand from a behind the paywall article on NBR that AIR have nine of these early model Trent 1000 powered Dreamliners (18 engines, 2 down, 16 suspect) and two of the 2017 engine variant aircraft with the new design fan blades (4 good engines). RR claim the compressor blade corrosion issue can be "managed" through maintenance until they are in a position to retrofit the existing engines with the newly designed fan blades.

I understand this maintenance involves very tight inspection intervals of the affected engines and this is supposed to ensure that the engines are safe for use. Unfortunately a little birdie tells me that the engine that failed on ZK-NZE was only very recently inspected. How much comfort you can get from Rolls Royce claiming their inspection program means these aircraft are safe to fly I will leave for you to decide for yourself. I would not be surprised at all if these planes weren't all grounded in the near future as a precautionary measure. The risk to AIR's SP should be obvious.

ANA have 50 of these aircraft with 100 affected engines and are going through a 3 year compressor blade replacement program which started in 2016. Where AIR are in the queue I have no idea but I seriously doubt this issue is going to be resolved completely by mid 2018 which is what RR implied in their "corporate public relations speak" response to the behind the paywall article on the NBR. I would reiterate the importance of understanding the caveat to AIR's statement that this is not going to affect guidance which was prefixed with the words "At this stage" Anyway I have now posted everything I know about it so I am going to take a break from commenting about this issue unless there is another failure or CAA directive. I won't be making the same mistake of getting dogmatic about this like I did with HBL which I am sure will be a relief to some on here.

[winner69]

Probably just a coincidence that Air's problems with the Dreamliners have happened since Sir John officially came on board

Just a casual observation

[winner69]

Over a year ago the CAA seem quite relaxed about these engines and would just monitor the situation

Wonder if so relaxed now?

Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) spokesman Mike Richards confirmed the Air NZ fleet was fitted with the same engines.
However, Air NZ said there were no issues detected on its fleet and "there has been no impact on our operations".
"From our point of view there have been no operational issues in New Zealand with the engine and we understand Rolls-Royce is working with airlines about repairs," Richards said.
The CAA was closely monitoring the action Air New Zealand is taking with Rolls Royce and is satisfied the necessary steps are being taken to ensure the ongoing safety of the travelling public, he said.
"The CAA is aware that aircraft engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce is working closely with Air New Zealand regarding precautionary maintenance upgrades on Trent engines fitted to some of the national carrier's Boeing Dreamliner aircraft."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83740918/Air-NZ-Dreamliners-use-same-engines-as-Japanese-jets-grounded-due-to-cracks

[Snow Leopard]

article: Grounded Dreamliners Stagger THAI (https://good-planes.com/civil-aircraft/boeing-787-dreamliner/grounded-dreamliners-stagger-thai-bangkok-publish-news/892/) (early July 2017)

[winner69]

Whatever we think market doesn’t seemed fazed ....share price pretty strong last week

I never bought airline shares until recently because I thought it would be tempting fate and there would be a crash and many would die. I wouldn’t have been able to live with the guilt of causing that

However I succumbed and started punting on AIR .......still hold some today. Hope I’m not tempting fate......hmm maybe better sell

Pretty good price at the moment anyway

[winner69]

Oh dear - even the replacement aircraft have 'issues'

Apparently they have RR engines as well

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/99948117/replacement-air-new-zealand-aircraft-experiences-engineering-issue


Sir John not bring good luck to AIR is he - Teflon he is not. Hope Chris's halo doesn't dim too much as well

[Baa_Baa]

Reckon the market might have got the news? That low trajectory down trend over head resistance has nabbed AIR a couple of times in the past 5 days. No worries, solid support currently around 3.01 has held for months. 6 months of leaking sideways down off the top of is not encouraging though against news of dodgy engines. Holders be wary, don't worry unless it drops through support, which if it does, be out. Charts help, it's all about sentiment.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

I flew trans-Tasman on one of the leased Hi-Fly planes yesterday and, putting aside the 1.5hr delay, the service was generally alright and broadly comparable to getting stumped with Virgin code-share. The crew (from both airlines) were clearly making a big effort and the only disappointments were:

- that the early-generation seat-fitted screens were almost unwatchable (I'm not sure if i-pads could be used as an alternative); and
- that they didn't emphasise on or before the flight that this is not a normal Air New Zealand service (fingers crossed).

There was a notification about the different service on the app, but I doubt this would've been clear to overseas customers.

[Raz]

I flew trans-Tasman on one of the leased Hi-Fly planes yesterday and, putting aside the 1.5hr delay, the service was generally alright and broadly comparable to getting stumped with Virgin code-share. The crew (from both airlines) were clearly making a big effort and the only disappointments were:

- that the early-generation seat-fitted screens were almost unwatchable (I'm not sure if i-pads could be used as an alternative); and
- that they didn't emphasise on or before the flight that this is not a normal Air New Zealand service (fingers crossed).

There was a notification about the different service on the app, but I doubt this would've been clear to overseas customers.

Virgin code share level..good grief..all you can hope for is the flight to get a tail wind..speed it up please!

Been out b4 the Beagle...think a few have followed now...

[minimoke]

And now I've got an email from Mark Street, GM Loyalty to say my airpoints username /password is on some leaked database and apparently some other site where I use my password has been breached. Blah blah technical mumbo jumbo. Seems to be a helpful email - but this relying on technology is fraught with difficulty.

[iceman]

Can anyone on here confirm what routes any of the 9 AIR Dreamliners with these engines are currently flying ?

[winner69]

Can anyone on here confirm what routes any of the 9 AIR Dreamliners with these engines are currently flying ?

3 seem to be grounded
3 having day off but going to SYD NRT KIX tomorrow
Others flying SIN SYD (2) NRT routes at mo.

Flightrader24.com .......quite interesting

[winner69]

Iceman

There’s a group of guys who love weird aviation things and seem to spend hours following things on flightradar24

Like last night the EZE to AKL did a subtle change in flightpath and flew directly over Hastings and Napier ......theory being to have some fun and wake up the locals

Were you on that flight?

[Mush]

They're rotated through a number of routes:
AKL-PVG, ADL-AKL, AKL-EZE, AKL-MEL, AKL-SYD, AKL-PER, AKL-RAR, AKL-NAN, AKL-HNL, AKL-PPT, AKL-KIX, AKL-APW, AKL-SIN, AKL-TBU, AKL-NRT

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts#AKSSR57MMM2vslMFiJL7

[winner69]

The worry that I would jinx AIR and cause a crash because I was still holding shares was just too much and I've sold out the last of my holding. In the unlikely event of a crash at least I won't feel responsible and won't have to live with the guilt of affecting hundreds of lifes.

Been a good year or so with a couple of really good trades as AIR swung from $2 to over $3 and back down to $1.70 odd and look where it is today. Was first time I had held airline shares and don't think I wil ever hold again.

[iceman]

Iceman

There’s a group of guys who love weird aviation things and seem to spend hours following things on flightradar24

Like last night the EZE to AKL did a subtle change in flightpath and flew directly over Hastings and Napier ......theory being to have some fun and wake up the locals

Were you on that flight?

Thanks guys for the info. Yes winner I was on that flight. 19 hours delayed but the flight time was almost one hour shorter than scheduled. If that meant waking up people in Hawkes Bay so be it 😀. Delay due to strikes at EZE and not AIR

[Valuegrowth]

Demand and traffic growth should remain robust in the Asia-Pacific region but there could be fierce competition for market share among Asia-Pacific airlines in 2018. This could cause yields to decline.What do you think about AIR’s market share?

[winner69]

Love it when an Aussie isn't proud of the 'Spirit of Australia'

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-qantas-is-the-spirit-of-australia-that-spirit-needs-to-lift-its-game-20171228-h0aw9w.html

[Zaphod]

Traffic stats and fuel price be damned. The one thing AirNZ should do in 2018 to boost the SP is to rename itself "Blockchain NZ", to capitalise on the current peak hype of the technology. Heck, it worked well for the SP of the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation.

[peat]

Traffic stats and fuel price be damned. The one thing AirNZ should do in 2018 to boost the SP is to rename itself "Blockchain NZ", to capitalise on the current peak hype of the technology. Heck, it worked well for the SP of the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation.

they are one step ahead of you mate :p

On Nov 23rd they announced they were "exploring the use of blockchain-based systems within its business"

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2017-air-nz-experiments-with-blockchain-technology

[value_investor]

Crude oil prices up pretty sharply now in the past two weeks. I know a lot of those cheaper airline operators don't hedge their fuel positions so it will be interesting to see where we are at during the HY announcement.

I still see some crazy deals out there for travel being offered despite it. Must be all the efficiency gained of these new planes that we are seeing.

[Beagle]

Fuel prices appear to be emerging as a headwind for 2018 to add to AIR's woes. Crude closed at its highest level since 2014 at the end of 2017 and have moved slightly higher since then and has now clearly broken out to the upside of a multi year trading range. Air have pretty good forward cover, for the next six months, but some experts on CNBC are calling Brent Crude to go as high as $80 barrel later this year, which could see Singapore Jet trading above $90. Speaking of headwinds, I noticed on New Years day AIR had a range of specials to Honolulu departing from Auckland and a range of other departure points for various really cheap prices e.g. $458 return from Auckland, which is the cheapest I have ever seen, flying on one of their Dreamliner's. Just 20 seats on special and I noticed by the end of the day not a single one had been sold. Make of that what you will but I wasn't game notwithstanding that Feb / March is a great time of year to go there with temp's a little cooler than normal averaging a very nice 27 degrees. I suspect consumers have got used to dirt cheap airfares. It will be interesting to see how demand holds up when Air fares have to start reflecting increased fuel costs. Good that no more engines have spat the dummy so far...

[Baa_Baa]

The Beagle is a much more interesting bear read than a bull imho. I reckon you've picked an almost certain underperformer against 2017 outperformance, but it might take a while to kick in, when it does AIR dissappoints significantly. Only the nimble trader makes consistent returns on this cyclical trading stock. Again just ihm. I agree with winner on another thread, dump the 4traders bs, you know they're a bunch of chimps. No point trotting them out when it suits and bagging them when it doesn't, none of it is worth a mention.

[Raz]

Fuel prices appear to be emerging as a headwind for 2018 to add to AIR's woes. Crude closed at its highest level since 2014 at the end of 2017 and have moved slightly higher since then and has now clearly broken out to the upside of a multi year trading range. Air have pretty good forward cover, for the next six months, but some experts on CNBC are calling Brent Crude to go as high as $80 barrel later this year, which could see Singapore Jet trading above $90. Speaking of headwinds, I noticed on New Years day AIR had a range of specials to Honolulu departing from Auckland and a range of other departure points for various really cheap prices e.g. $458 return from Auckland, which is the cheapest I have ever seen, flying on one of their Dreamliner's. Just 20 seats on special and I noticed by the end of the day not a single one had been sold. Make of that what you will but I wasn't game notwithstanding that Feb / March is a great time of year to go there with temp's a little cooler than normal averaging a very nice 27 degrees. I suspect consumers have got used to dirt cheap airfares. It will be interesting to see how demand holds up when Air fares have to start reflecting increased fuel costs. Good that no more engines have spat the dummy so far...

AIR has a lot more capacity now on this route, although most of the specials are limited dates which most of the working population simply cannot make work for them. Its usually the retired wealthy or financially independent/business owners that can be flexible on dates...they can afford full fare so why offer them too many opportunities...its a simple seat filler dressed up as a special.

[Robomo]

AIR has a lot more capacity now on this route, although most of the specials are limited dates which most of the working population simply cannot make work for them. Its usually the retired wealthy or financially independent/business owners that can be flexible on dates...they can afford full fare so why offer them too many opportunities...its a simple seat filler dressed up as a special.

Astute observation and quite true in my opinion, being "financially independent" and mostly retired (hopefully my THL shares will continue to improve and I can then become "wealthy"). We like to travel and as the airfare is increasingly a lower percentage of our holiday costs the actual fare is less important than the dates we want to travel and places we want to see. Saving a couple of hundred dollars on an airfare is nice if it coincides with desired travel dates but it's really only equivalent to one night's stay in an average American hotel.
For long-haul we try and travel Premium Economy for a bit of comfort and many of our fellow-travellers express similar sentiments - airfares are cheap and getting cheaper so why not enjoy a bit of luxury. For our last trip to Los Angeles the Business Premier and PE cabins were 100% full and Economy was only about 75% full. On our last trip to Honolulu 6 months ago we went economy and that was only because BP and PE were 100% full with full-fare passengers and we could not upgrade, even though I am Gold Elite and would be first in line for an upgrade. Economy was 95% full as well, mostly kiwis on holiday. No wonder the newest dreamliners for the NZ-USA run have more of the profitable BP and PE seats.

[Beagle]

The Beagle is a much more interesting bear read than a bull imho. I reckon you've picked an almost certain underperformer against 2017 outperformance, but it might take a while to kick in, when it does AIR dissappoints significantly. Only the nimble trader makes consistent returns on this cyclical trading stock. Again just ihm. I agree with winner on another thread, dump the 4traders bs, you know they're a bunch of chimps. No point trotting them out when it suits and bagging them when it doesn't, none of it is worth a mention.

Its been an interesting ride. Outperformance last year wasn't surprising as it was far too cheap at $2.00 about a year ago, not according to analysts though who had a consensus price target of $2.10 lol. Underperformance this year after last year's run is indeed highly likely but as usual time will tell.
On the 4 traders thing its really the caliber of analysis of AIR that I have taken issue with in the past, although more recently analysts appear to have come into line with AIR management thinking and seeing FY17 result as a new baseline upon which they can build, (hope they are right but the signs are not especially positive right at the minute). The interesting thing I have noted though is its easy to beat the analysts who generally seem to only update their forecasts and rating after a half year result, full year result, investor day or forecast change by the company, (with the odd exception of course), by simply following and updating one's own forecasts based off monthly operating statistics and known other issues such as the trends in fuel prices and other factors such as the current engine problems.

I agree 100% that AIR presents as having a real chance of seriously disappointing investors this year. I like the company and its management and the balance sheet is in good shape and so will the fleet be when the engine issues are resolved but headwinds are clearly evident and after a very good run last year I am happy to stay out until more value and less risk present themselves.

[BlackPeter]

The Beagle is a much more interesting bear read than a bull imho. I reckon you've picked an almost certain underperformer against 2017 outperformance, but it might take a while to kick in, when it does AIR dissappoints significantly. Only the nimble trader makes consistent returns on this cyclical trading stock. Again just ihm. I agree with winner on another thread, dump the 4traders bs, you know they're a bunch of chimps. No point trotting them out when it suits and bagging them when it doesn't, none of it is worth a mention.

Strong words - and how easy it is for anonymous posters to put down analysts. Just wondering whether you have any relevant data to prove what you said or whether we do we need to take your word for it?

I am actually tracking the consensus forecasts for a broad range of shares and can give some statistical data. Of the roughly 100 stock I follow (most NZ, but as well some AU and some German) the consensus forecasts (i.e. share price during the next 12 months at least once above the predicted consensus) have been in 75 % of all cases correct - and, if I remove the "trivial" cases where consensus is at the time of prediction below the SP, than they still get it right in 60% (both values averaged over the last 10 months - but the long term accuracy is moving in a quite small range) of all cases.

By the way - there are as well some academical papers investigating the reliability of analysts forecasts around, and they do come to a similar conclusion - these 60% are quite in the ball park for our economical region. Nothing wrong with the 4-traders consensus (BTW - the data are not produced but only collated by 4-traders anyway).

Of course - if they get 60% right, they get 40% wrong, but nobody would expect them to be always correct given that no mortal is able to reliably predict the future. However - the analysts consensus forecasts clearly do add value.

Just wondering, Baa-Baa - are your predictions more accurate or are you producing BS (to use your words) as well?

[Beagle]

I agree BP. Interestingly although brokers generally got AIR very badly wrong last year with a target average 12 month price last year of $2.10, out by a whopping 50%, generally they do add value as evidenced by last years ST competition where the average brokers performance was 34% against a NZX50 average of ~ 22% and a (medium place 106) sharetrader contributor performance of 30%.
This small piece of evidence suggest two things. 1. Analysts generally add some value. 2. They very badly miscalculated on AIR last year and if you know a company really well you might possibly be better doing your own analysis.

[Baa_Baa]

Strong words - and how easy it is for anonymous posters to put down analysts.

Just wondering, Baa-Baa - are your predictions more accurate or are you producing BS (to use your words) as well?

And apparently just as easy for an anonymous member to put down another member. If you are happy with ~60% accuracy (measured after the fact, which is useless anyway) and appreciate an opinion from 'analysts' on any of the thousands of stock analysis websites, good luck that's your prerogative but I don't.

There is better analysis here on ST. I am quite comfortable with my selections, the reasons why I selected them, how to manage my positions, without recourse to so called 'analysts'.

Next you'll be saying this is off topic, so to bring it back on topic, 4-Traders (which was the subject of my comment) has an abysmal record on AIR SP analysis, even now of the 6 analysts, the spread is 22% high to -14% low covering from outperform to sell. So which of the analysts would one believe when one doesn't even know who they are, what their experience or abilities are, who they work for, nothing.

So the consensus of the unknown analysts on 4-Traders is hold AIR. Woo hoo, that's convincing. If anyone doesn't know what we're talking about, see for yourself here http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

[Beagle]

Just a heads-up for those that don't know. Airline stocks now more generally starting to come under pressure from higher oil prices. QAN for instance now in serious correction mode down more than 25% from its recent high of A$6.53 to about A$4.88. Analysts have not changed their forecasts in recent weeks despite the steady rise in oil prices to multi year high's and the well discussed engine issue AIR has. Analysts are clearly on holiday at present. If a similar 25% correction that's happened to QAN were to occur to AIR would see it down from a high of ~ $3.60 to $2.70.
The potential for a weakened second half outlook on the back of expectantly high oil prices and extra costs that may not be recoverable from Rolls Royce should be quite clearly evident.
As you can see in the attached chart, 9386 we're seeing AIR trending towards the bottom of a wedge formed by the 100 day and 200 day MA's. I am expecting a test of the bottom of this range (the 200 day MA currently $3.13, imminently). I foresee no possibility whatsoever of a breakout to the upside of this wedge, currently $3.32, the best outcome is it continues in the $3.13 - $3.32 range. Far more likely is a break to the downside and a break of the 200 day MA which is preciously close to the closing price today. If this support level breaks in my opinion this could trigger a mass scramble to get out and a fairly quick and serious correction could quickly follow. Disc: I don't own AIR and neither do I have a short position.

[axe]

QAN no oil hedge. AIR hedge plenty? Short term trend SP starting to look dicey though as you said.

QUOTE=Beagle;698746]Just a heads-up for those that don't know. Airline stocks now more generally starting to come under pressure from higher oil prices. QAN for instance now in serious correction mode down more than 25% from its recent high of A$6.53 to about A$4.88. Analysts have not changed their forecasts in recent weeks despite the steady rise in oil prices to multi year high's and the well discussed engine issue AIR has. Analysts are clearly on holiday at present. If a similar 25% correction that's happened to QAN were to occur to AIR would see it down from a high of ~ $3.60 to $2.70.
The potential for a weakened second half outlook on the back of expectantly high oil prices and extra costs that may not be recoverable from Rolls Royce should be quite clearly evident.
As you can see in the attached chart, 9386 we're seeing AIR trending towards the bottom of a wedge formed by the 100 day and 200 day MA's. I am expecting a test of the bottom of this range (the 200 day MA currently $3.13, imminently). I foresee no possibility whatsoever of a breakout to the upside of this wedge, currently $3.32, the best outcome is it continues in the $3.13 - $3.32 range. Far more likely is a break to the downside and a break of the 200 day MA which is preciously close to the closing price today. If this support level breaks in my opinion this could trigger a mass scramble to get out and a fairly quick and serious correction could quickly follow. Disc: I don't own AIR and neither do I have a short position.[/QUOTE]

[Beagle]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170825/pdf/43lqntm25qyzgf.pdf
QAN hedged 86% for FY18, higher hedging rate than AIR which is about 75% for the next 6 months. I have mentioned a number of times in this thread that I think QAN shares are overpriced relative to AIR but I think this is no longer the case. I do think QAN may have played a little fast and loose with shareholders money by having such a large share buy-back program with shares being bought back as high as $A6.52 in recent months. Closed today at $4.86...you've got to wonder a bit about the logic of that buy-back program and whether it might have perhaps influenced the share price to some degree as the SP has really tanked since they finished that program. Hope anyone still holding AIR shares has their seat belt firmly fastened, tray table folded away, seat back upright and sick bag handy.

[couta1]

QAN nearly bankrupt a few years ago under the pressure of high oil prices paying a zilch divvy, currently at 2.88% against Air at 6.61% (Net figures). QAN heading back to a zilch divvy?whilst Air should remain around that 6% level and with a solid history of paying excellent divvies ,that's the big difference between the two and why Air is the better long term hold for those so inclined, IMO. PS-The NZ Govt seems to agree.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm with the Beagle on this one despite his unique TA with the MA's wedge thing. Normal TA says the same thing, this is going to test the 200DMA and if that fails hopefully your stops save you from a prolonged downside correction. No way this is a Hold, imho, it's an eyes on, be quick or be broken. If the 200DMA supports, then it's a short term trade. Neither are investment strategies. Back to trading, or else.

[Beagle]

QAN nearly bankrupt a few years ago under the pressure of high oil prices paying a zilch divvy, currently at 2.88% against Air at 6.61% (Net figures). QAN heading back to a zilch divvy?whilst Air should remain around that 6% level and with a solid history of paying excellent divvies ,that's the big difference between the two and why Air is the better long term hold for those so inclined, IMO. PS-The NZ Govt seems to agree.

I'm expecting management to make a cautious statement regarding the outlook for the second half when they announce first half profit next month. The caution will probably be "officially" around oil prices but I think its unlikely they will get ALL the extra downstream costs involved with the Rolls Royce overhaul program reimbursed by RR...although they probably will not want to admit that publicly and neither will they want to admit the reputation damage this engine problem is causing them or any reduction in demand. I still think there's a chance if there's another engine failure, (which could occur any time) that CAA grounds all the affected planes in which case you could see a substantial gap down in the SP with immediate effect. Too risky to hold or trade at this point in my opinion.

[ratkin]

. Too risky to hold or trade at this point in my opinion.

We would never have guessed from your balanced postings

[percy]

We would never have guessed from your balanced postings

Great post.........................lol.

[Beagle]

We would never have guessed from your balanced postings

Many thanks for your "useful" insights.

Percy...Turners... lol... enough said.

[Robomo]

After holding AIR for 10 years and buying more plus DRP when available over the years, I sold them all today. Crude oil up 2% today, consistent negative sentiment on HotCopper (Qantas) and on ST, plus general caution within Air NZ itself regarding 787 engines. It seems unlikely the SP will improve any time soon and is likely to drift lower, even without any bad news on the engine problems. Better opportunities elsewhere, so for me it's bye bye AIR. I'll be back though once things stabilise around fuel and engines and general investment outlook later this year. As Beagle said repeatedly in his positive posting phase early 2017 there will be every expectation of big dividends in 2019 onwards, particularly if tourism holds up.
It's been a great and very profitable ride but for now au revoir.

[ratkin]

After holding AIR for 10 years and buying more plus DRP when available over the years, I sold them all today. Crude oil up 2% today, consistent negative sentiment on HotCopper (Qantas) and on ST, plus general caution within Air NZ itself regarding 787 engines. It seems unlikely the SP will improve any time soon and is likely to drift lower, even without any bad news on the engine problems. Better opportunities elsewhere, so for me it's bye bye AIR. I'll be back though once things stabilise around fuel and engines and general investment outlook later this year. As Beagle said repeatedly in his positive posting phase early 2017 there will be every expectation of big dividends in 2019 onwards, particularly if tourism holds up.
It's been a great and very profitable ride but for now au revoir.

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment is not a sound strategy, as can be seen on this thread, people just post according to their positions and agenda. If you have held for Ten years there will have been many days when oil rose or fell by several percent.

[gbogo]

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment is not a sound strategy, as can be seen on this thread, people just post according to their positions and agenda.

I find forum sentiment to be a useful contributory indicator. Sometimes, for contrary action; sometimes for uncovering sentiment not present in more public arenas. (and I recognise that I contribute to that sentiment sometimes..)

[BlackPeter]

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment is not a sound strategy, as can be seen on this thread, people just post according to their positions and agenda. If you have held for Ten years there will have been many days when oil rose or fell by several percent.

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment alone is certainly not a strategy likely to create consistently desirable results ... but I agree with gbogo, it is often a quite useful additional indicator. The share price is a combination out of fundamental value and market hype and forum sentiment is correlated with market hype. Ignore it at your peril.

If I look at AIR's situation overall, than I agree with beagle - if there is a good time to sell it, than it probably is now. Increasing oil price, tourism likely at a peak, increasing oil prices and the Damocles sword of further Rolls Royce engines disassembling themselves during flight (hopefully in a safe way) hanging over AIR and any other proud owner of the Nightmare-liner ... what good reason might there be to stay in AIR at current PE?

Obviously everybody's own assessment how they rate risk and what premium they demand, but it looks like the market made up its mind. SP currently close to the MA200. It might be a good idea for holders to closely watch this line ... typically not a good sign if the SP falls through that ;);

Discl: Don't hold and no, I don't know either how the AIR SP is going to develop ...

[Raz]

Yeah, the negatives here currently feel like stepping in an alternative universe :-)

[peat]

testing support

[couta1]

testing support First time it's breached the MA200 for nearly a year, thought I'd save Beagle from saying it. Cyclical reversal on the cards?

[gbogo]

break down through $31.2 suggests $2.60 next stop.

[Beagle]

9392
200 day MA $3.144, closed at $3.10. Breakout to the downside of the slowly converging 100 - 200 day MA curve lines as predicted. Expect more trouble ahead.

[peat]

You guys are quoting 200 SMA as $3.14 (and I can see that is what findata quotes) but my chart has it quite a bit lower at $2.95. Even the EMA is set lower than 3.14 for me - at $3.02

But in any case my support line was not based on a MA but on the clear evidence that $3.12-14 has been an area where support has been found numerous times. Purple line. Note this was an area of resistance in 2016 as well (Resistance becomes support) Interestingly this is also the area where there was a gap back in June last year (marked). Gaps often get filled. So it is possible this dip is just that filling happening. But I dont really believe that hence my position.

MA's are relatively arbitrary imho (ANZ securities Supercharts doesnt even provide a 200 MA) so I take more from the historical price action itself than any particular MA.

Also worth noting is that the MACD histogram has now gone negative.

9393
For a better quality pic see this https://i.imgur.com/PuX3YLm.png



(Disclaimer - short , evil I know!)

[winner69]

First time it's breached the MA200 for nearly a year, thought I'd save Beagle from saying it. Cyclical reversal on the cards?

A real cyclical reversal (long term cycle) would take share price sub $2

AIR share price behaving like that AIRplane I watched taking several attempts to land at WLG last night and appeared to land with the wind behind it

[Beagle]

You guys are quoting 200 SMA as $3.14 (and I can see that is what findata quotes) but my chart has it quite a bit lower at $2.95. Even the EMA is set lower than 3.14 for me - at $3.02

But in any case my support line was not based on a MA but on the clear evidence that $3.12-14 has been an area where support has been found numerous times. Purple line. Note this was an area of resistance in 2016 as well (Resistance becomes support) Interestingly this is also the area where there was a gap back in June last year (marked). Gaps often get filled. So it is possible this dip is just that filling happening. But I dont really believe that hence my position.

MA's are relatively arbitrary imho (ANZ securities Supercharts doesnt even provide a 200 MA) so I take more from the historical price action itself than any particular MA.

Also worth noting is that the MACD histogram has now gone negative.

9393
For a better quality pic see this https://i.imgur.com/PuX3YLm.png



(Disclaimer - short , evil I know!)

Not evil, it always takes at least two to make a market...wish I was short...talk about an almost certain money making position !