AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Not sure - price is set by trading, not by owning. Government might have impact on the stock price every time one of their populist ministers is making inappropriate noises, but otherwise: their ownership is quite irrelevant to the price finding. Same with instos - they only impact on the price if & when they are actively trading (but yes, they might). Pretty simple really, you can't trade stock if you don't own it or borrow to short it and retail fish own very little of it, so also very simple to work out who sets the price, yep that's right the insto's.

[BlackPeter]

Pretty simple really, you can't trade stock if you don't own it or borrow to short it and retail fish own very little of it, so also very simple to work out who sets the price, yep that's right the insto's.

You make that sound like some evil cartel of insto's sitting together each day and determining the price which they than force on the innocent and helpless market.

Anybody who is trading is helping to shape the market price. In AIR's case it is certainly not the government as owner (they don't trade), but sure there are some local and international insto's (with quite diverging interests - some holding, some shorting, some hedging, some long term investors) and than there are retail investors.

None of these groups "sets" the price - the price is set by a willing seller (no matter of which holder group) finding a willing buyer (again irrelevant from which holder group).

[couta1]

You make that sound like some evil cartel of insto's sitting together each day and determining the price which they than force on the innocent and helpless market.

Anybody who is trading is helping to shape the market price. In AIR's case it is certainly not the government as owner (they don't trade), but sure there are some local and international insto's (with quite diverging interests - some holding, some shorting, some hedging, some long term investors) and than there are retail investors.

None of these groups "sets" the price - the price is set by a willing seller (no matter of which holder group) finding a willing buyer (again irrelevant from which holder group). Let's agree to disagree.PS-Nothing evil about insto's trading each day, it's what they do.Lol.

[percy]

Craigs' target price $2.85.
NB.Do not think they have ever been right with this stock.!..lol.

[winner69]

Craigs' target price $2.85.
NB.Do not think they have ever been right with this stock.!..lol.

Still on their conviction list?

[percy]

Still on their conviction list?

Yes...
SELL conviction ...lol.

[couta1]

Craigs' target price $2.85.
NB.Do not think they have ever been right with this stock.!..lol. The trusty coin toss a lot more reliable than the accuracy of Craig's target prices.

[percy]

The trusty coin toss a lot more reliable than the accuracy of Craig's target prices.

They can't fool you...!
Ha ha ha.....well yes......lol.

[Beagle]

Jacinda thinks Christopher is her "go to" man to sort out this problem with low business confidence. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d0c99335/ardern-says-no-more-than-2-fair-pay-agreements-to-be-concluded-this-term.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Ardern%20says%20no%20more%20than%202% 20fair%20pay%20agreements%20to%20be%20concluded%20 this%20term&utm_content=Ardern%20says%20no%20more%20than%202%2 0fair%20pay%20agreements%20to%20be%20concluded%20t his%20term+CID_d237421cd6b767da6241b2e8d723561d&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled0c99335ardern-says-no-more-than-2-fair-pay-agreements-to-be-concluded-this-termhtml
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/pm-announces-new-business-advisory-council/ar-BBMwwhk?ocid=spartandhp

Chris full of confidence despite lower forecast profits this year so she's probably made the right call on this occasion.

Hey Winner...Chris will love this sort of thing...probably keep him going at AIR for at least another few years.
He'll really relish the opportunity to get on his soap box in front of other business leaders and tell them about relentless positivity, investing in green initiatives, lowering the carbon footprint, caring for the environment..."Let's do this" He'll really think he's making a difference and that'll be just the ticket to keep him motivated.

Seriously though...Jacinda getting alongside and working with Chris Luxon is probably the single smartest thing she has done since being elected in my opinion.
Hopefully he can talk some sense into her.

[Patient Panda]

A smart move and like you say I’m sure hes going to enjoy the extra spotlight. Will be really interesting tomsee who else they get on that council.

[Blue Skies]

Literally got the govt's ear, got to be worth a few cents extra on SP. Healthy profitable AIR pivotal to a healthy NZ inc

[Beagle]

A smart move and like you say I’m sure hes going to enjoy the extra spotlight. Will be really interesting tomsee who else they get on that council.

He's a good natural leader. I've chatted with him after a number of annual meetings and watched him talk to others. He has an easy way about him that puts people at ease and he communicates very well. I'm sure he'll relate with Jacinda well and this gives me a bit more confidence that Labour are taking this matter seriously.

[winner69]

He's a good natural leader. I've chatted with him after a number of annual meetings and watched him talk to others. He has an easy way about him that puts people at ease and he communicates very well. I'm sure he'll relate with Jacinda well and this gives me a bit more confidence that Labour are taking this matter seriously.

Yep listen to big end of town

But will those SMEs you look after be happy and feel more otimstic?

[Beagle]

Yep listen to big end of town

But will those SMEs you look after be happy and feel more otimstic?

Too early to call at this stage but it might make a difference...spring is coming...there's a theory that says that people are naturally more optimistic in spring. Some guy at a Turners roadshow presentation told me that so it must be true :)

[percy]

Most retailers,motels,rental car companies,etc either run at a loss, or break even, from Mother's Day to Father's Day.

[Raz]

Most retailers,motels,rental car companies,etc either run at a loss, or break even, from Mother's Day to Father's Day.

SMEs is where the problem lies and as per usual have no voice...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12114849
https://www.tearfund.org.nz/About-Us/Tearfund-Board-Members.aspx

[winner69]

He's a good natural leader. I've chatted with him after a number of annual meetings and watched him talk to others. He has an easy way about him that puts people at ease and he communicates very well. I'm sure he'll relate with Jacinda well and this gives me a bit more confidence that Labour are taking this matter seriously.

Paul Krugman once said what people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy. (Krugman)

Whether Jacinda’s new advisory group is just a mutual admiration society only time will tell.

But as long as the world believe that Jacinda’s doing something and the input of Luxon and his mates are going to help to guide economic policy for the good she has achieved her aim — essentially diverting attention away from the problem for while. Or maybe it was all just window dressing to get some more headlines.

[winner69]

SMEs is where the problem lies and as per usual have no voice...

Agree and I doubt that struggling suburban accountants, High St florists, metal fabrication businesses etc etc will be invited to join this group

[Beagle]

Paul Krugman once said what people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy. (Krugman)

Whether Jacinda’s new advisory group is just a mutual admiration society only time will tell.

But as long as the world believe that Jacinda’s doing something and the input of Luxon and his mates are going to help to guide economic policy for the good she has achieved her aim — essentially diverting attention away from the problem for while. Or maybe it was all just window dressing to get some more headlines.

Good post mate. One suspects that with about 100 working groups working on a vast range of policy any assurance Jacinda gave about her understanding of the need for certainty for business is at best window dressing lol.
Perception is a powerful thing though. She did look good on the telly last night getting up close with Chris. Maybe some of his good common sense might rub off on her.
Maybe just the perception that they are listening to business is all that's needed to boost confidence slightly and keep the problem swept under the carpet for now ?

Anyway..I blame the spent fumes from aircraft engines that sometimes fly over my house...I bought a few more AIR this morning at $3.30. Probably regret it but when you're a dividend hound at heart its hard to change one's nature and the gross yield looking forward makes a solid investment case. Maybe they have a bit of brand pricing power to recover the higher jet fuel prices this year ? Who knows, time will tell.

[Blue Skies]

Paul Krugman once said what people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy. (Krugman)

Whether Jacinda’s new advisory group is just a mutual admiration society only time will tell.

But as long as the world believe that Jacinda’s doing something and the input of Luxon and his mates are going to help to guide economic policy for the good she has achieved her aim — essentially diverting attention away from the problem for while. Or maybe it was all just window dressing to get some more headlines.

Seems a very glass half empty way of looking at things if you don't mind me saying. There's cracks appearing in society everywhere, from unaffordable housing, unsustainably low wage economy for teachers, nurses police etc, debt being loaded onto future generations, effects of climate change, dependence on fossil fuels, unsustainable welfare etc & we can't just keep kicking the can down the road, there needs to be some change/transitions to face these challenges, which some of us believe this govt is trying to do ( & probably Bill English would have started to tackle too)
Mai Chen wrote a very good article recently on diversity in the board room, being not just about getting more women or ethnicities around the table, but more importantly a range of well informed & articulated opinions, & not just having a diverse looking group of people, agreeing with everything the chairman says, which is unfortunately so often the case.
I can only see it as a positive that Jacinda Grant etc have established a business advisory group, who may not get everything they want but they are listening to their specific concerns & politics & policy as we know is all about compromise.

[peat]

3.40 is the magic number. if it could break through that it could be very bullish.

[Patient Panda]

Paul Krugman once said what people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy. (Krugman)

Whether Jacinda’s new advisory group is just a mutual admiration society only time will tell.

But as long as the world believe that Jacinda’s doing something and the input of Luxon and his mates are going to help to guide economic policy for the good she has achieved her aim — essentially diverting attention away from the problem for while. Or maybe it was all just window dressing to get some more headlines.


You a big fan of Krugmans Winner? Can’t say i’m too impressed with him. I’d take anything outside his circle of expertise (international trade) with a very large grain of salt.

disc; not an expert but have an Econ degree and general interest.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) has just posted an awful annual result. $A714 million statutory loss.

This will have caused a sharp intake of breath in Abu Dhabi, Hainan, Singapore and Necker Island.

Their plan to include bags and meals in basic fares across the Tasman could be a winner.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12115599

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. The Virgin spokesperson in the Herald video hints that Tiger Airlines may fly across the Tasman.

[Snow Leopard]

Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) has just posted an awful annual result. $A714 million statutory loss.

This will have caused a sharp intake of breath in Abu Dhabi, Hainan, Singapore and Necker Island....

Actually it is quite a good result and maybe the forums resident accountant can explain to us why they would de-recognise $511M of tax assets, that they can re-recognise in the future.

But I came here to talk pilot shortages.
This has been the Jumbo in the hanger for a number of years now but airlines are actually starting to making mention of it in their reports, announcements, etc.

So you have been warned, even if you did not notice ;).

Time to fly:
http://hd.wallpaperswide.com/thumbs/snow_leopard_flying-t2.jpg

[winner69]

Love Shane Jones .....and of course Jacinda and Chris are the beginnings of a mutual admiration society

Morning Report (@NZMorningReport)
30/08/18, 8:47 AM
.@GuyonEspiner asked Regional Economic Dev Minister Shane Jones about calling business advisory head a 'celebrity appointment'. He responded:

"Chris [Luxon]... would know one of the commandments is do not covet the arse of your neighbour. Goodbye." radionz.co.nz/national/progr…


Morning Report (@NZMorningReport)
30/08/18, 9:02 AM
@GuyonEspiner "I've got no time for celebrities in business... He is a celebrity. Chris Luxon regards himself without a sliver of doubt as a key feature..." - Some excerpts from the interview with Shane Jones. Follow the link above for full context.

Interview is here https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018660331/prime-minister-s-business-advisory-chief-a-celebrity-jones


.......but I doubt many if you will bother listen

[winner69]

Christopher hates being called Chris ...esp by Shane

[dobby41]

Christopher hates being called Chris ...esp by Shane

Guyon called him Chris first? 5:46

[Blue Skies]

Hi Winner, only heard the first part (on Australian banks) of the 'Greetings from'.. Shane Jones interview this morning while grabbing some breakfast, but just had to listen to the 2nd part of the interview on CL after seeing your post.
Think he likes stiring the pot up a bit & seeing what rises to the surface. He's a character all right, colourful earthy eccentric, contorted, & hilarious way to end an interview! Think even Guyon was amused.

[Beagle]

Actually it is quite a good result and maybe the forums resident accountant can explain to us why they would de-recognise $511M of tax assets, that they can re-recognise in the future.

But I came here to talk pilot shortages.
This has been the Jumbo in the hanger for a number of years now but airlines are actually starting to making mention of it in their reports, announcements, etc.

So you have been warned, even if you did not notice ;).

Time to fly:
http://hd.wallpaperswide.com/thumbs/snow_leopard_flying-t2.jpg


Kiwi Beagle doesn't pretend to have any expertise when it comes to Australian taxation matters but will opine that normally the derecognition of tax assets, (losses carried forward) is because there is no longer the reasonable expectation that these assets will be able to be utilized in the future.

I haven't looked at Virgin's gearing for a while but I would imagine with that statutory write-off its even more shocking and badly stretched than it was last year. Talk is cheap regarding expansion. Finding aircraft, crew spares and the capital to invest in another offshore operation is not cheap.

Borghetti or however his name is spelt, the CEO of Virgin is acting like a lover spurned. He appears to be wanting to run a vendetta campaign against a vastly stronger AIR. He must be livid AIR is now code sharing with a quality airline.

Rock star Chris will sort Cindy out.

[iceman]

Kiwi Beagle doesn't pretend to have any expertise when it comes to Australian taxation matters but will opine that normally the derecognition of tax assets, (losses carried forward) is because there is no longer the reasonable expectation that these assets will be able to be utilized in the future.

I haven't looked at Virgin's gearing for a while but I would imagine with that statutory write-off its even more shocking and badly stretched than it was last year. Talk is cheap regarding expansion. Finding aircraft, crew spares and the capital to invest in another offshore operation is not cheap.

Borghetti or however his name is spelt, the CEO of Virgin is acting like a lover spurned. He appears to be wanting to run a vendetta campaign against a vastly stronger AIR. He must be livid AIR is now code sharing with a quality airline.

Rock star Chris will sort Cindy out.

Does AIR have a new codeshare partner in OZ ? I've obviously missed that announcement.

[Snow Leopard]

Does AIR have a new codeshare partner in OZ ? I've obviously missed that announcement.


You spend too much time on AIR planes and not enough time reading AIR announcements.

Original media release:
Qantas and Air New Zealand announce codeshare deal to make travel easier (https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2018-qantas-and-airnz-announce-codeshare-deal)

[iceman]

You spend too much time on AIR planes and not enough time reading AIR announcements.

Original media release:
Qantas and Air New Zealand announce codeshare deal to make travel easier (https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2018-qantas-and-airnz-announce-codeshare-deal)

You're not wrong there :-) Thanks for the info

[Beagle]

AIR must be struggling to fill seats to London. Early bird sale at $1,399 return which is pretty remarkable when you consider the taxes out of London and the current fuel price but what caught my eye in terms of an outrageous below cost bargain on a good quality carrier was Etihad to Dublin for $999 return.see www.flightcentre.co.nz

[blackcap]

AIR must be struggling to fill seats to London. Early bird sale at $1,399 return which is pretty remarkable when you consider the taxes out of London and the current fuel price but what caught my eye in terms of an outrageous below cost bargain on a good quality carrier was Etihad to Dublin for $999 return.see www.flightcentre.co.nz

Yeah I saw the AIR prices to Amsterdam too, but its not when I plan on going. Oh well. But they are ridiculously cheap. Could almost go for a weekend away at those prices, just don't wan the associated jetlag.

[winner69]

Apparently NZ2 LAX-LHR stopped off at Reykjavik last night

Was it for you Iceman

[iceman]

Apparently NZ2 LAX-LHR stopped off at Reykjavik last night

Was it for you Iceman

Yep. I rang the Beagle who rang his mate Chris and got it sorted :-)

[winner69]

Yep. I rang the Beagle who rang his mate Chris and got it sorted :-)

Maybe they should fly there regularly ...nice spot

[Miway]

Flight diverted for sick passenger to be hospitalized

[winner69]

Heard somebody today say ‘jeez, Air NZ have more sales than Briscoes’

[Benny1]

Heard somebody today say ‘jeez, Air NZ have more sales than Briscoes’

Have noticed alot of sales lately.. Hawaii seems a popular destination for these... Maybe trying to fill empty seats on their leased ex Singapore aircraft?

[Jantar]

Most of their cheap flights are on partner airlines, not an AIR NZ plane. E.g. The cheapest flights to London are Air NZ to Shanghai, then change to another airline.. Air NZ all the way is $300 dearer each way.

[winner69]

The rich and famous should have known better .....next time they need to ask Raz

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12123850

[dobby41]

The rich and famous should have known better .....next time they need to ask Raz

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12123850

He's right, though, that United is the US partner for AIR - if they do poorly on that leg of your 'AIR' trip then it will reflect badly on AIR.

[Beagle]

He's right, though, that United is the US partner for AIR - if they do poorly on that leg of your 'AIR' trip then it will reflect badly on AIR.

Probably upset they didn't have that fake meat burger like AIR does lol

[Beagle]

Not really surprising. Haven't seen any radical initiatives on the digital front and he's not to the best of my knowledge been mentioned much in recent investor presentations. Chris Luxon being pretty kind in his farewell endorsement, in my opinion. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/323962

[Snow Leopard]

"Air New Zealand is conducting a global search to identify a new Chief Digital Officer"

As long as they are not considering Derek Handley... :mellow:

[winner69]

"Air New Zealand is conducting a global search to identify a new Chief Digital Officer"

As long as they are not considering Derek Handley... :mellow:

Could save relocation costs

[couta1]

"Air New Zealand is conducting a global search to identify a new Chief Digital Officer"

As long as they are not considering Derek Handley... :mellow: Anything to do with Mr Handley equals a sell and run for the hills leaving your luggage behind.

[Beagle]

Solid stat's for August. SP up a bit in response.

[Joshuatree]

This will be a great little earner for AIR
Inmarsat and Panasonic partner on in-flight connectivity (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSFWN1W50QY)
Inmarsat and Panasonic partner on in-flight broadband (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1M00RX)

[Beagle]

Kia ora Beagle
As New Zealand’s national airline, I’m very conscious that we occupy a special place in the hearts of Kiwis. It’s an affection and responsibility that generations of Air New Zealand staff feel and has driven them to deliver a truly world class travel experience.
Frustratingly, our ability to deliver this over the past year has been severely impacted and many of our customers have experienced disruptions and delays, rescheduled flights, unexpected replacement aircraft and over-crowded lounges. I really do apologise and thank you for your patience and support of the airline at this time.
Consequently, I thought it might help if I shared some context with you as to what’s going on and more importantly what we are doing about it.
What's been going on?
It’s been an incredibly challenging year at Air New Zealand dealing with some extraordinary operational challenges that started with the rupture of the fuel pipeline north of Auckland and a series of extreme weather events. However, the biggest challenge has been the unscheduled global maintenance issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines that power our 787 Dreamliners. Some of these engines have experienced durability issues which have increased the number and frequency of engineering checks required. This has meant that at any time up to five of our 13 787 Dreamliners must be grounded while the engines are serviced in Singapore.
This has placed significant pressure on our whole interconnected network of over 3,500 weekly flights and I will be meeting with Rolls Royce management in London in a few weeks to further seek personal reassurance that all is being done to get our affected engines back in service as soon as possible.
While I’m immensely proud of the agility and resilience of all Air New Zealanders in responding to these recent challenges, we now need to implement more assertive actions so that we can more reliably deliver our schedule for our customers.
What are we doing about it?
To cope with our reduced fleet, we have had to lease three other aircraft from two of the world’s top airlines. These are flown by Air New Zealand crew and have been equipped with our food and beverages, but do come with a different interior configuration to our own fleet.
We will also further protect ourselves from unexpected disruptions by stopping flying to Vietnam next year, suspending our services to Haneda in Tokyo and slightly reducing our frequency to Argentina and Taipei. These are big decisions to make but are vital to free up capacity and let us concentrate on delivering a better experience across the board.
Another issue that has disrupted our operations has been the significant increase in people passing through airports in New Zealand. Simply put, some airport facilities, especially in Auckland, are struggling to keep up with the surge in demand for air travel due to under investment by the airport companies. Currently, I am working with the Chief Executive Officers of several airports to do whatever we can to accelerate improvements.
A strong theme of feedback from customers has been frustration about call wait times into the Contact Centre, especially during periods of weather disruptions. So, we’re in the process of hiring a further 80 Contact Centre employees and have committed to expanding the self-service options and digital tools over the next six months.
In closing, thank you for your loyalty, patience and support as we are working through these recent operational challenges. While these are not in our direct control, how we choose to respond certainly is.
Going forward, I want you to know that I am committed to keeping you informed each month and sharing the way that Air New Zealand will grow and adapt to continue delivering a truly world class travel experience.

Ngā mihi

Christopher Luxon
Chief Executive Officer

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
Just received e.mail to airpoints members. Looks like Chris is a little frustrated with Rolls Royce's handling of this whole issue. What do RR expect when they tell their customers everything will be fixed by April 2018 and then opps NO, it'll take another whole year !
I hope he takes a really firm approach with RR and insists on full compensation including the estimated losses of $30-40m noted in their forecast for FY19.
I might e.mail him next week if I can be bothered working myself up into a lather over this, (I currently don't own that many shares), and encourage him to really take RR to task over all the costs this is imposing on AIR as well as reputational damage.

[winner69]

Lot of effort goes into those safety videos

http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=112511

[Joshuatree]

Nothing about not wearing ski boots onto the plane or attempting to ram skis in the overhead locker?:)

[RGR367]

Kia ora Beagle
As New Zealand’s national airline, .....................................
...................Going forward, I want you to know that I am committed to keeping you informed each month and sharing the way that Air New Zealand will grow and adapt to continue delivering a truly world class travel experience.

Ngā mihi

Christopher Luxon
Chief Executive Officer

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
Just received e.mail to airpoints members. Looks like Chris is a little frustrated with Rolls Royce's handling of this whole issue. What do RR expect when they tell their customers everything will be fixed by April 2018 and then opps NO, it'll take another whole year !
I hope he takes a really firm approach with RR and insists on full compensation including the estimated losses of $30-40m noted in their forecast for FY19.
I might e.mail him next week if I can be bothered working myself up into a lather over this, (I currently don't own that many shares), and encourage him to really take RR to task over all the costs this is imposing on AIR as well as reputational damage.

Thank you for sharing your correspondence Beagle.

[Raz]

Thank you for sharing your correspondence Beagle.

When I saw this in my inbox it just reminded me why I try to not use them currently if I have a good alternative, the Auckland and lounge issues pre-date RR engine issues...

Note the cut back on growth routes regardless of lease aircraft...

[mikeybycrikey]

Kia ora Beagle

(...snip...)

Ngā mihi

Christopher Luxon
Chief Executive Officer


Thanks for sharing that. Interesting read.

I'm a little concerned that of the three problems that he is writing about, two of them (lounges and call centre staff) can be squarely placed on Air NZ's shoulders... yet he is deflecting blame on weather and airports. I'm sure if they wanted to build a bigger lounge, Auckland airport would happily take their money.

Even the RR issue has been ongoing for a while.... why are they only making an effort to cut scheduled flights now? It feels like maybe discontent has been building for a while to write this grovelling email message.

Taking action is good but it doesn't feel nearly as proactive as I'd expect from this airline.

[winner69]

Thanks for sharing that. Interesting read.

I'm a little concerned that of the three problems that he is writing about, two of them (lounges and call centre staff) can be squarely placed on Air NZ's shoulders... yet he is deflecting blame on weather and airports. I'm sure if they wanted to build a bigger lounge, Auckland airport would happily take their money.

Even the RR issue has been ongoing for a while.... why are they only making an effort to cut scheduled flights now? It feels like maybe discontent has been building for a while to write this grovelling email message.

Taking action is good but it doesn't feel nearly as proactive as I'd expect from this airline.

Nice word that “grovelling”

I note Chris cashed up some of his shares the other day

[couta1]

Nice word that “grovelling”

I note Chris cashed up some of his shares the other day I don't mind him cashing up some shares, he's done wonders for the company over a long period of time and has my respect, contrast that to another CEO with a name the sounds like Herd Licker and you get a totally different story.

[Snow Leopard]

To be honest I have always been a little baffled by the apparently short-term solutions Luxon Air adopted to the 787 issue, initially I assumed that they had some form of preferential treatment.

Virgin Atlantic, for instance, took the approach of grabbing a few available airplanes and make them as VA as possible: see VIRGIN ATLANTIC TACKLES THE 787 ENGINE ISSUE (https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/virgin-atlantic-timelapse-video-plane-painted-air-berlin-aircraft-replace-boeing-787-engine-a8168371.html).

However there are potential pitfalls when painting a plane:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/18AF/production/_103491360_cathaypacific.jpg
Cathay Pacific spells own name wrong on plane (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45572275)

[Beagle]

I don't mind him cashing up some shares, he's done wonders for the company over a long period of time and has my respect, contrast that to another CEO with a name the sounds like Herd Licker and you get a totally different story.

I agree. He only sold a very small percentage of what he has after many years leading the airline. It doesn't hurt to show a bit of contrition and let customers know that you're trying your best. I actually think its a very good communication he's sent out. They really have been dealt a very harsh blow with this RR engine issue and being told it would all be resolved by April / May 2018 and then being let down really badly by RR... He's obviously frustrated. I think I'd be taking a high powered legal team on my visit to RR headquarters if I was him and be looking for a more comprehensive compensation package including more timely overhaul of the engines. He gets a bit carried away with environmental issues but he has my respect and I hope he stays long after this engine fiasco is finally over.

[Benny1]

AIR expecting at least 3 787's to be out of service for a while with the possibility of more from time to time as this engine situation evolves during the next year, there were four out of action last week. Have heard the new TEN engines may also be starting to suffer similar issues..
They have also taken a 777 out of the summer schedule to act as a spare to try to help keep the schedule intact as best they can.
The situation may get a lot worse, as the package "B" engines, mostly fitted to the earlier 787-8 aircraft are now also becoming caught up in this whole Rolls Royce fiasco.
This could potentially flood the Rolls Royce repair facilities even more, ( have heard somewhere that ANA has the potential to have 30 aircraft out of action over the next while), and they will have a hell of a lot more priority than AIR !
In fact that really wouldn't surprise me if this is was the reason why Mr Luxon is now getting his backside over to Rolls HQ !

A321NEO aircraft apparently have slipped back a couple of weeks as well. First two have been assembled and ZK-NNA has been painted, not quite sure of delivery dates yet...


http://www.aviation-friends-hamburg-forum.de/showthread.php?tid=13320

[Beagle]

Thanks for the feedback from the coalface Benny1. So nine months into this fiasco there's still no clear light at the end of the tunnel and AIR appear to be starting to wear some of the costs ($30-40m impact on FY19 profit as disclosed by the company) as well as massive customer inconvenience and some reputational damage. Pretty disappointing.

[iceman]

Thanks Benny1 for a good informative post. Been out of AIR since this first hit the news and have no intention of buying again while this potentially huge issue remains unsolved.

[iceman]

Just received the below email- They must be getting lots of negative feedback from frustrated customers:

Kia ora Iceman

As New Zealand’s national airline, I’m very conscious that we occupy a special place in the hearts of Kiwis. It’s an affection and responsibility that generations of Air New Zealand staff feel and has driven them to deliver a truly world class travel experience.

Frustratingly, our ability to deliver this over the past year has been severely impacted and many of our customers have experienced disruptions and delays, rescheduled flights, unexpected replacement aircraft and over-crowded lounges. I really do apologise and thank you for your patience and support of the airline at this time.

Consequently, I thought it might help if I shared some context with you as to what’s going on and more importantly what we are doing about it.

What's been going on?

It’s been an incredibly challenging year at Air New Zealand dealing with some extraordinary operational challenges that started with the rupture of the fuel pipeline north of Auckland and a series of extreme weather events. However, the biggest challenge has been the unscheduled global maintenance issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines that power our 787 Dreamliners. Some of these engines have experienced durability issues which have increased the number and frequency of engineering checks required. This has meant that at any time up to five of our 13 787 Dreamliners must be grounded while the engines are serviced in Singapore.

This has placed significant pressure on our whole interconnected network of over 3,500 weekly flights and I will be meeting with Rolls Royce management in London in a few weeks to further seek personal reassurance that all is being done to get our affected engines back in service as soon as possible.

While I’m immensely proud of the agility and resilience of all Air New Zealanders in responding to these recent challenges, we now need to implement more assertive actions so that we can more reliably deliver our schedule for our customers.

What are we doing about it?

To cope with our reduced fleet, we have had to lease three other aircraft from two of the world’s top airlines. These are flown by Air New Zealand crew and have been equipped with our food and beverages, but do come with a different interior configuration to our own fleet.

We will also further protect ourselves from unexpected disruptions by stopping flying to Vietnam next year, suspending our services to Haneda in Tokyo and slightly reducing our frequency to Argentina and Taipei. These are big decisions to make but are vital to free up capacity and let us concentrate on delivering a better experience across the board.

Another issue that has disrupted our operations has been the significant increase in people passing through airports in New Zealand. Simply put, some airport facilities, especially in Auckland, are struggling to keep up with the surge in demand for air travel due to under investment by the airport companies. Currently, I am working with the Chief Executive Officers of several airports to do whatever we can to accelerate improvements. We have also invested in a lounge redevelopment programme and plans are well underway for a new regional lounge and upgraded domestic lounge in Auckland and another lounge at the international terminal. We also have upgrades planned at Wellington and several regional airports.

A strong theme of feedback from customers has been frustration about call wait times into the Contact Centre, especially during periods of weather disruptions. So, we’re in the process of hiring a further 80 Contact Centre employees and have committed to expanding the self-service options and digital tools over the next six months.

In closing, thank you for your loyalty, patience and support as we are working through these recent operational challenges. While these are not in our direct control, how we choose to respond certainly is.

Going forward, I want you to know that I am committed to keeping you informed each month and sharing the way that Air New Zealand will grow and adapt to continue delivering a truly world class travel experience.


Ngā mihi

Signature
Christopher Luxon

Chief Executive Officer

[Snow Leopard]

A couple of obvious questions:
1/ If you start and end a communication in Maori, why change to New Zenglish for the middle bit?
2/ How come AirNZ know everybody's ST nom de post?

[winner69]

Not all AIR Airpoints Customers (even some of those high up in the pecking order) got this email. Chatter is this is as weird as the email itself.

I feel left out, especially since the beagle who flys Jetstar got one

Chris has lost his vigour, his halo has lost its glow. He comes across pretty disinterested in AIR these days

He’ll be gone within the year. If he doesn’t get or turns down the Fonterra job he could end up standing in a conveniently instituted by election in a safe National seat with the promise of becoming the National Leader and next Prime Minister. (John’s told him it’s a pretty good career move)

[Beagle]

Not all AIR Airpoints Customers (even some of those high up in the pecking order) got this email. Chatter is this is as weird as the email itself.

I feel left out, especially since the beagle who flys Jetstar got one Not even if they paid me would I step on board their relic aircraft !

Chris has lost his vigour, his halo has lost its glow. He comes across pretty disinterested in AIR these days No, he's good mate, relax, its all good.

He’ll be gone within the year. If he doesn’t get or turns down the Fonterra job he could end up standing in a conveniently instituted by election in a safe National seat with the promise of becoming the National Leader and next Prime Minister. (John’s told him it’s a pretty good career move) Then he could supercharge the whole N.Z. economy :)

[Beagle]

A couple of obvious questions:
1/ If you start and end a communication in Maori, why change to New Zenglish for the middle bit?
2/ How come AirNZ know everybody's ST nom de post?
1. Its perceived to be cool and politically correct to welcome and farewell in Maori but I agree 100% with the tone of what you're saying.
2. Could it be that Beagle and Iceman when coping and pasting the airpoints email changed their name and inserted their pseudonym. It would appear they also wisely deleted their full name and email address for obvious privacy reasons after the copy and paste :)

[iceman]

Sorry Beagle for the double up. Haven't been following the thread that closely and didn't realise you'd already posted Chris' email

[Beagle]

All good mate, worth reading twice anyway. Air seem to be starting to feel the "squeeze" from those faulty compressor blades...you see what I did there :)
Raz doesn't like the big squeeze at AIR's Auckland and some other customer lounges...what's next, wheels starting to fall off lol

[iceman]

All good mate, worth reading twice anyway. Air seem to be starting to feel the "squeeze" from those faulty compressor blades...you see what I did there :)
Raz doesn't like the big squeeze at AIR's Auckland and some other customer lounges...what's next, wheels starting to fall off lol

I don't like the fact the say they're reducing schedule to BA. It may force our company to look at LATAM again with their more frequent schedule via Santiago.
The email certainly indicates serious problems being experienced due these faulty engines and Benny's post indicating the new TEN engines may be experiencing the same issues is alarming to say the least.

[Beagle]

I thought those ten engines are supposed to have the all new compressor blade sections that are supposed to fix the problem, the same parts that are being retrofitted to earlier iterations of those engines right ? Looks like Winner could be bang on the money and those engines are simply a lemon.

Here's another look, (you'll need your sick bag because RR go on and on and on and on about their precision engineering and superb quality control) at the Rolls Royce advertising campaign, masquerading as a BBC program, about them building the Trent 1000.
Has this video come back to haunt them or what ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfomloUg2Gw

[winner69]

I don't like the fact the say they're reducing schedule to BA. It may force our company to look at LATAM again with their more frequent schedule via Santiago.
The email certainly indicates serious problems being experienced due these faulty engines and Benny's post indicating the new TEN engines may be experiencing the same issues is alarming to say the least.

LATAM look pretty good airline if their website anything to go by

What’s it look flying with them?

[iceman]

LATAM look pretty good airline if their website anything to go by

What’s it look flying with them?

Good planes and good service. No complaints.

[couta1]

Not all AIR Airpoints Customers (even some of those high up in the pecking order) got this email. Chatter is this is as weird as the email itself.

I feel left out, especially since the beagle who flys Jetstar got one

Chris has lost his vigour, his halo has lost its glow. He comes across pretty disinterested in AIR these days

He’ll be gone within the year. If he doesn’t get or turns down the Fonterra job he could end up standing in a conveniently instituted by election in a safe National seat with the promise of becoming the National Leader and next Prime Minister. (John’s told him it’s a pretty good career move) Chris for new National party leader or the new CEO of A2 milk.

[Subway]

LATAM look pretty good airline if their website anything to go by

What’s it look flying with them?

Flew LATAM AKL to SYD, food and service was woeful, but for a 3.5hr flight who really cares, plus it was cheap, was an older 787-8

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/special-dollar787-airfares-to-celebrate-new-787-dreamliner-aircraft/ar-AAAB91e?ocid=spartandhp

Get in quick while the engines are still fresh and working properly lol

[777]

Flew LATAM AKL to SYD, food and service was woeful, but for a 3.5hr flight who really cares, plus it was cheap, was an older 787-8

Maximum age would only be 6 years at the most. AirNZ oldest are already 4 years old. Would say it looked old to you due to lack of attention by the airline.

[iceman]

Maximum age would only be 6 years at the most. AirNZ oldest are already 4 years old. Would say it looked old to you due to lack of attention by the airline.

Have flown those LATAM planes a lot long haul. Have always been tidy and in good condition as far as I'm concerned.

[Subway]

Maximum age would only be 6 years at the most. AirNZ oldest are already 4 years old. Would say it looked old to you due to lack of attention by the airline.

Lack of attention is an understatement, tray table was broken, IFE didn't work properly and oxygen mask popped down from the ceiling on take off

[couta1]

Man this things getting hammered, a bad divvy strip, paper loss over double the divvy, won't be averaging down though. PS-Its behaving worse than TRA.Lol.

[Beagle]

I sold out this morning. I believe the RR engine issue will provide protracted headwinds for AIR. C.L. would not be going to RR if there isn't a VERY serious issue and feedback from Benny1 that the ten version of the engine is showing preliminary indications of accelerated wear is a real worry as its these newly designed components that were expected to be the silver bullet to fix the problem, the same components I understand are being retrofitted to earlier iterations of that engine to fix their problems. How long will it really take to fix all these engine problems ? If RR don't know how to solve this problem could this be an ongoing systemic issue for this engine variant ?
When will these aircraft enjoy extended ETOPS ratings again, if ever, to make them suitable for some of the long haul routes AIR flies ?
Why are AIR stating that they expect a $30-40m hit to their FY19 result as a direct result of RR engine problems and why are they not getting compensation from RR for these costs ?
What reputational damage has been done to AIR in the last 9 months since major disruptions to their schedule started and is this enduring or temporary ?
I also note that oil has consistently been above their assumed forecast for the year in recent times and hit a 4 year high overnight. The lower $Kiwi will be exacerbating the fuel cost problem. All things considered my sense is the risk reward ratio is tilted towards risk at present.
P.S. Some management are selling down...join the dots...

[Beagle]

Is it my imagination but my goodness...in addition to the daily grabaseat deals, Australia on sale Monday, Pacific Islands yesterday and Asia today. North and South America tomorrow and Europe on Friday then ? Are they actually having more sales than Briscoes ?

Probably just confirmation bias now that I've sold I think that AIR are keener to sell seats...probably always have been loads and loads of sales.
Wonder if there's a profit downgrade or implied caution with higher fuel prices at today's meeting ? Just as well they have those electric cars in their fleet, that'll save them HEAPS !

[Patient Panda]

Its not your imagination, I’ve also noticed a large increase in their promotional activity.
Their sale fares are almost always at a higher pricepoint than others so I have not flown with them very often internationally.
Flying with Qantas to bali tomorrow, hopefully they’re as happy to give me an extra meal or two as last time :)


Hope its still less sales than Briscoes

[couta1]

Pretty Bullish presentation in terms of new routes, new planes, more growth and increasing tourism numbers, gearing up marginally, fuel headwinds cited. SP drifting lower on low volume, looks like retail fish having a swim around.

[Beagle]

RR issues aren't going away any time soon mate, in fact not in the foreseeable future. Quite a few analysts on CNBC talking about a real supply demand squeeze in the oil market over the next 6 months in particular. Hope Iran doesn't try and bock the straight of Hurmuz like they're threatening too as retaliation for Trump's trade sanctions. Spike to ~ $100 a barrel isn't entirely unlikely in my opinion. Plenty of risk there, most of which is probably in the SP already.
Expecting to see $3 tested on any further spike in oil, any rise in geopolitical tension or any extension of the RR issues. Probably worth noting that 4% inbound tourist growth is well down on 10% a couple of years ago.

P.S. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a7e72939/rising-fuel-costs-pressure-air-nz-earnings.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Rising%20fuel%20costs%20pressure%20Ai r%20NZ%20earnings&utm_content=Rising%20fuel%20costs%20pressure%20Air %20NZ%20earnings+CID_a6c6ad2e809fcef2b67515057dc55 c5b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea7e72939rising-fuel-costs-pressure-air-nz-earningshtml

[couta1]

Just hold em and collect the divvies, thats what the Govt and Insto's are doing. I don't sell good divvy paying stocks for a loss anymore besides I do have a good number of them. PS-Depending on how things go before the next divvy I may resurrect the old Couta and go XXXXOS.Lol.

[Snow Leopard]

Over the last 15 months the share price has dropped by the equivalent of the three dividends paid and it is quite feasible that that trend will continue over the next three dividends.

However, while the TA guys like to sneer at buy and hold it has a very high success rate as a long term strategy, especially if you do not invest in airlines :).

[Beagle]

Over the last 15 months the share price has dropped by the equivalent of the three dividends paid and it is quite feasible that that trend will continue over the next three dividends.

However, while the TA guys like to sneer at buy and hold it has a very high success rate as a long term strategy, especially if you do not invest in airlines :).

Quite possible you are right as Coutts always reckoned about $2.50 was where its at for AIR. Could it go there again...maybe. Good that they are holding their forecast range for now but Tony Carter is effectively giving a veiled warning that we're headed toward the low end of that range if oil stays where it is and they might have to revise guidance down if oil goes further north.

Wonder how many nightmare liners are sitting idle on the ground without engines at present... Winner is right, those Trent 1000 engines are a lemon.

[oldtech]

Quite possible you are right as Coutts always reckoned about $2.50 was where its at for AIR. Could it go there again...maybe.

I'd consider buying back in at $2.50!

I loved the low of $1.795 that I bought at in October 2016, even more selling at at $2.34 and $3.17 several months later. :t_up:

Probably just being greedy hoping for that roller-coaster ride again ... :p

[Beagle]

I'd consider buying back in at $2.50!

I loved the low of $1.795 that I bought at in October 2016, even more selling at at $2.34 and $3.17 several months later. :t_up:

Probably just being greedy hoping for that roller-coaster ride again ... :p

AIR's charm offensive https://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/newstrends/air-nzs-newest-airplane-prepares-for-take-off/ar-AAADH7y?ocid=spartandhp
Pretty sure there's been plenty of teething problems with those NEO engines too. Hope they're all sorted now.

[Benny1]

Quite possible you are right as Coutts always reckoned about $2.50 was where its at for AIR. Could it go there again...maybe. Good that they are holding their forecast range for now but Tony Carter is effectively giving a veiled warning that we're headed toward the low end of that range if oil stays where it is and they might have to revise guidance down if oil goes further north.

Wonder how many nightmare liners are sitting idle on the ground without engines at present... Winner is right, those Trent 1000 engines are a lemon.

Four at last count! One due out this week..
However another will replace that on the ground next week!
Two brand new aircraft now out flying I assume these will be used to the USA and the second daily Singapore flights ?

This summer season will really test the company as far has how well they manage to keep the busy schedule going, there could be some real trying times for the good operational folk as they try to keep whatever they have available flying.

They actually did very well last year to react and bring in those lease planes as quickly as the did..although it was never an ideal situation.

For me there is just too much risk involved around these 787's engines.
The share price has held up remarkably well over the last year and maybe we are just now starting to see the market becoming a little nervous about the whole scenario..

As always time well tell...

[Bobdn]

New plane, pretty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbENeqJlDzI

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/107382055/air-new-zealand-to-deploy-new-a321neo-aircraft-on-tasman-and-pacific-routes

[Benny1]

New plane, pretty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbENeqJlDzI

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/107382055/air-new-zealand-to-deploy-new-a321neo-aircraft-on-tasman-and-pacific-routes
Quite cool those time lapse video's 😃

[Beagle]

Four at last count! One due out this week..
However another will replace that on the ground next week! Overall a very sad state of affairs.
Two brand new aircraft now out flying I assume these will be used to the USA and the second daily Singapore flights ? Help me out here please mate. Have these new ten versions got the extended ETOPS rating and if not how is it they can fly direct to Chicago ?

This summer season will really test the company as far has how well they manage to keep the busy schedule going, there could be some real trying times for the good operational folk as they try to keep whatever they have available flying.

They actually did very well last year to react and bring in those lease planes as quickly as the did..although it was never an ideal situation.

For me there is just too much risk involved around these 787's engines.
The share price has held up remarkably well over the last year and maybe we are just now starting to see the market becoming a little nervous about the whole scenario..

As always time well tell...

Chris Luxon going to visit RR tells us its not just shareholders getting uncomfortable about how this is playing itself out...

[flyer]

Surely, at some point down the line there will be some sort of financial compensation from RR.

[couta1]

Surely, at some point down the line there will be some sort of financial compensation from RR. Legally there has to be but it won't cover all the losses.

[Benny1]

Chris Luxon going to visit RR tells us its not just shareholders getting uncomfortable about how this is playing itself out...

The Trent TEN has full 330 minutes as far as I am aware..

[Beagle]

Chief AIR operations and safety officer selling down shares earlier this week as did Chris Luxon himself recently but the chief himself assures shareholders that this engine issue is not a safety issue... but he's off to visit Rolls Royce to seek assurances that all is being done to expedite repair of faulty engines ASAP. Mixed messages there.

[iceman]

A little more on the engine issue in the Herald today https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12133520

News like this in the media can not be good for AIR

[Beagle]

Chief AIR operations and safety officer selling down shares earlier this week as did Chris Luxon himself recently but the chief himself assures shareholders that this engine issue is not a safety issue... but he's off to visit Rolls Royce to seek assurances that all is being done to expedite repair of faulty engines ASAP. Mixed messages there.


A little more on the engine issue in the Herald today https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12133520

News like this in the media can not be good for AIR

And now the FAA appear to be looking into it again. Optics on this not looking good. Shame our mate Chris doesn't give us some more colour around the real reason he's off to see Rolls Royce. You'll be releived to be flying to / from South America on the old technology 777-200 I assume ?

[Snow Leopard]

What is there to worry about?

link: Rolls Royce engines causing problems for Boeing Dreamliners, but not in North Charleston (https://www.postandcourier.com/business/rolls-royce-engines-causing-problems-for-boeing-dreamliners-but-not/article_a5fdd5c8-c28e-11e8-b2cd-07c230395739.html)

Honestly, get a grip guys :rolleyes:

[iceman]

What is there to worry about?

link: Rolls Royce engines causing problems for Boeing Dreamliners, but not in North Charleston (https://www.postandcourier.com/business/rolls-royce-engines-causing-problems-for-boeing-dreamliners-but-not/article_a5fdd5c8-c28e-11e8-b2cd-07c230395739.html)

Honestly, get a grip guys :rolleyes:

Yes probably nothing to worry about except a serious disruption to AIR´s schedule, huge restrictions on the Dreamliner´s flights, recently announced pullback on growth plans on new routes as a result and customer confidence seriously undermined as many people now don´t want to fly on the affected planes. Fine to look the other way but this is a very serious unresolved issue for AIR. How serious it will turn out to be is anybody´s guess but in my view it would be silly not to take this risk into account.

Yes Beagle I am pleased to be flying the old 777-200 on my travels. Wouldn´t fly that distance on the Dreamliners now if that was the option.

[Raz]

Crisis of confidence on the thread?

[winner69]

More local competition :scared::t_up::confused::p:D;):t_down::)


https://givealittle.co.nz/project/new-airline-in-nz

[Timesurfer]

More local competition :scared::t_up::confused::p:D;):t_down::)


https://givealittle.co.nz/project/new-airline-in-nz

I see AIR NZ must have sanctioned the page ... I was a starter for $10 too

[Benny1]

Well you know what they say about how to make a small fortune ...
Start with a large fortune then start an airline....
Seriously though... They must be taking the pi$$...$500,000 won't keep them in fuel for more than a few days.....

[Beagle]

More local competition :scared::t_up::confused::p:D;):t_down::)


https://givealittle.co.nz/project/new-airline-in-nz

LOL You wouldn't be able to get all the processes and leases together and organise the regulatory Civil aviation authority approvals for that. This is a rort probably by an unemployed executive with nothing to do looking to fleece people so he can have a fancy salary while he p***** into the wind. Chris Luxon must be "terrified" lol

[Jantar]

$500k to start an airline? Someone is dreaming. If they don't even know enough about the business to have a reasonable idea of the start up costs then I would be staying well clear.

[Sideshow Bob]

OK, OK - who set this givealittle page as a joke for bored Shatetraders???? Surely must be a joke....... :confused::eek2::p

[dobby41]

OK, OK - who set this givealittle page as a joke for bored Shatetraders???? Surely must be a joke....... :confused::eek2::p

Company registered on 17 Sep 2018.
Registered Office
Jason McCulloch, 23 Advance Terrace, Arrowtown, Arrowtown, 9302 , New Zealand
He's the only shareholder and director.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12132113

A full month and two days out from the noon time CMO annual meeting on 2 November I checked prices on the weekend to fly to from the meeting on said date on AIR. Unless I want to get up at some absolutely heinous early hour to make the very first flight of the day its just over $500 return, (assuming I also want to fly back at a reasonable hour of the late afternoon / early evening. One wonders if their domestic pricing is getting a little "toppy" at times already ?
I won't fly Jetheap at any price (including free) so I won't be going, simple as that.

[Raz]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12132113

A full month and two days out from the noon time CMO annual meeting on 2 November I checked prices on the weekend to fly to from the meeting on said date on AIR. Unless I want to get up at some absolutely heinous early hour to make the very first flight of the day its just over $500 return, (assuming I also want to fly back at a reasonable hour of the late afternoon / early evening. One wonders if their domestic pricing is getting a little "toppy" at times already ?
I won't fly Jetheap at any price (including free) so I won't be going, simple as that.


Yes it can get very pricey, we usually go to Melbourne or Sydney for entertainment and some dates your looking at $170 one way and other dates 500-600$. It does add up.

Just had the most grovely email from Emirates on change in services...sounds like they are really struggling...will help AIR on the Bali route.

[Snow Leopard]

Airline analysts always point out that the barriers to entry for a new airline in New Zealand are low.

Also an acquaintance of mine bought a few airline assets for one ringgit (about NZ$0.35) seventeen years ago and he seems to be doing reasonably well these days.

https://www.airasia.com/cdn/aa-images/common/airbus-a320-(500h-x-280w)-(3).png

But Air New Zealand will probably survive for a year or two yet :mellow:.

[Jaa]

Airline analysts always point out that the barriers to entry for a new airline in New Zealand are low.

Also an acquaintance of mine bought a few airline assets for one ringgit (about NZ$0.35) seventeen years ago and he seems to be doing reasonably well these days.

https://www.airasia.com/cdn/aa-images/common/airbus-a320-(500h-x-280w)-(3).png

But Air New Zealand will probably survive for a year or two yet :mellow:.

As he proclaimed so infamously in May he may have done well Snowy but his shareholders over the last 5 years would have done much better in Air NZ and are unlikely to be holding an open house with beef rendang and all the goodies any time soon!

As for those who preferred his X rated shares, I hope they still have their shirts (baju)!!

5 Year Return
Air New Zealand Limited: 107.38%
Airasia Group BHD: 17.04%
AirAsia X Bhd: -74.31%

Fly Air Asia, own Air NZ or :eek2:

Qantas Airways Limited: 275.80%


No wonder Buffet now owns 10% of the big 4 airlines in the US.

[Beagle]

In another life the stripey one reckoned Virgin were brilliant buying at just over 30 cents (now 22 cents years later) compared to AIR at ~ $2 and QAN at about $3 at the time from memory.

Quite probably tongue in cheek or tongue in paw :)

[Snow Leopard]

In another life the stripey one reckoned Virgin were brilliant buying at just over 30 cents (now 22 cents years later) compared to AIR at ~ $2 and QAN at about $3 at the time from memory.

Quite probably tongue in cheek or tongue in paw :)

Your selective memory is failing you badly, doggie boy.

Here is the post:



I to enjoy a variety of posts positive or Negative and we are lucky on this thread to have some very knowledgeable people. But I wonder if someone held a gun to PT's head and said you have to invest $50K of your hard earned money in one of the following stocks (QAN, VAH or AIR) would AIR really be the third choice??

http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img-0-450/en/full/610434/1468850865_kabali.jpg
Buy MY airline

VAH is the obvious first choice, QAN definitely the second.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


VAH was at $0.245 with AIR at $2.28 and QAN at $3.14

with todays closes of $0.225, $3.035 & $5.83 respectively and including dividends the gains since then are:
VAH -8%, AIR 79% and QAN 101%

I well flagged the subsequent Oct-16 AIR SP $1.78 as a good buy-in point and the $3.56+ exit point making a return on that trade of 110%.

I seem to recall that just as the price was peaking at $3.60 you were trying to convince us all that $4.23 was a reasonable price, where as you can only have lost money since then, and then you enthusiasm was suggesting NPBT of up to $700M for FY17, slightly off the $530M actually achieved.

Never get emotionally attached to a share and never invest in airlines.

[Snow Leopard]

As he proclaimed so infamously in May he may have done well Snowy but his shareholders over the last 5 years would have done much better in Air NZ...

5 Year Return
Air New Zealand Limited: 107.38%
Airasia Group BHD: 17.04%
AirAsia X Bhd: -74.31%

Fly Air Asia, own Air NZ or :eek2:

Qantas Airways Limited: 275.80%
....

Tony mentioned Air NZ, really? He must have been thinking about me :blush:.

You have forgotten the dividends actual returns 1-Oct-13 to today are:
AIR 232%,
QAN 317%
AirAsia - dunno, but a little better than 17%
AirAsiaX is correct.

Fly em, don't buy em.

[Beagle]

LOL I was just giving your former animal iteration a poke for a bit of fun snow leopard. No need to get the claws out :p

[couta1]

Tony mentioned Air NZ, really? He must have been thinking about me :blush:.

You have forgotten the dividends actual returns 1-Oct-13 to today are:
AIR 232%,
QAN 317%
AirAsia - dunno, but a little better than 17%
AirAsiaX is correct.

Fly em, don't buy em. Personally I like to fly em and buy em.PS-Never lost any money buying em but have been out of pocket on a few occasions flying em.

[Beagle]

Ryanair warning overnight regarding earnings because of high oil prices. Oil now $10 a barrel over the estimate used in AIR's forecast. Plenty of experts on CNBC warning of $100 oil in the near future.
Headwinds are getting stronger...

[couta1]

Ryanair warning overnight regarding earnings because of high oil prices. Oil now $10 a barrel over the estimate used in AIR's forecast. Plenty of experts on CNBC warning of $100 oil in the near future.
Headwinds are getting stronger... I was reading this morning that the price will self correct in 2019 if it hits $100 once the supply games end.PS-Air are cranking up their prices big time to compensate.PPS-All the selling so far leading to the recent SP drop has been on low volume and from retail fish, Govt and Big fish are not selling.

[Beagle]

We'll see mate. I think the $3 psychological support level is in for a very serious test.

[winner69]

Remember fuel costs and yield are inextricably linked

No worries

[Beagle]

Remember fuel costs and yield are inextricably linked

No worries

LOL right up to the point where AIR try and charge this Beagle $500 return to fly to Wellington !

[Sideshow Bob]

LOL right up to the point where AIR try and charge this Beagle $500 return to fly to Wellington !

Try living in the regions! Farming of a different kind - cash cows!

[couta1]

We'll see mate. I think the $3 psychological support level is in for a very serious test. Nervous reef fish could send it there short term but long term big fish rule.Lol.

[couta1]

LOL right up to the point where AIR try and charge this Beagle $500 return to fly to Wellington ! You have to pay to visit a quality city mate as well as for the thrill of the landing on a windy day.

[winner69]

Last financial year AIR made $24 profit per passenger flown. That’s the average across the whole group.


So hopefully they’ll fill that seat you aren’t going to use mr beagle

[Beagle]

You have to pay to visit a quality city mate as well as for the thrill of the landing on a windy day.

I'm a very nervous flyer mate so there's not much in the way of fingernails left after that sort of experience lol and that's with full knowledge AIR's pilots are fully trained the old fashioned way on Cessna's and such like through proper flight school's. No idea how Jetheap passengers get on, (those that know these things) knowing their mainly foreign sourced pilots are trained mostly using play station games, opps sorry, I mean flight simulators.

[winner69]

Think AIR fly just under 200,000 flights a year

That’s about $2,000 profit per flight (on average)

Hope they fill that seat you don’t want beagle .....as the profit only comes from a few passengers per flight

[Beagle]

LOL, doubt they'll miss me on that flight mate. Gave them a feed recently with my Queenstown trip.
I see the general counsel / company secretary is leaving after less than 2 years in the job. Hope they can find a really good lawyer to take her place as they'll need to tool up to take Rolls Royce on I feel.
This business of rolling over like a pet Labrador and accepting a $30-40m haircut to the bottom line because of RR's engine engineering ineptitude has to stop.
Chris Luxon keeps reminding us that they have an excellent relationship with RR, well why are they simply accepting a massive haircut for problems that stemmed from them without a fight ?
RR told them these engines would be fixed in April / May 2018 and then suddenly its delayed for a whole year.

What happens if its delayed for another year, does CL still play pussycat and kowtow to the "mighty" Rolls Royce ? What happens if the new Ten version of this Trent engine also is hugely problematic and it causes years of drama's, loss of profits and loss of reputation for AIR ? Do they still say we have an excellent relationship or is it time to man up and get litigious and fit proper engines to these nightmareliners ? Might make Chris's day and email him a copy of this post :lol:

Ironic that at a time when finally these capex intensive planes would be their most commercially advantageous (highest oil prices in over 4 years) we have several sitting on the ground like wounded ducks.

[winner69]

Ironic that at a time when finally these capex intensive planes would be their most commercially advantageous (highest oil prices in over 4 years) we have several sitting on the ground like wounded ducks.

....and aren’t those flying taking the long way round to keep close to land?

[winner69]

Beagle said — LOL, doubt they'll miss me on that flight mate.

But if there’s quite a few like you not flying they might start missing you.

[dobby41]

But if there’s quite a few like you not flying they might start missing you.

That was my thought when he said it.
Individually each passenger doesn't mean much to the bottom line but collectively you get a few plane loads and a good bit of profit.

[winner69]

That was my thought when he said it.
Individually each passenger doesn't mean much to the bottom line but collectively you get a few plane loads and a good bit of profit.

Rough sums — 3 to 4 less passengers on a flight means no profit

[Beagle]

....and aren’t those flying taking the long way round to keep close to land?

Dog leg's due to lack of decent ETOPS rating. Wonder if they get compensation from RR for the extra fuel ?

This seems to have slipped under everyone's radar last week http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1809/S00365/visitor-levy-to-raise-80-million-to-future-proof-tourism.htm
New $35 levy for tourists.

[Raz]

Rough sums — 4 to 4 less passengers on a flight means no profit

Certainly the marginal income does matter..daughters BF is getting a few together to go to LA after exams..on virgin 799$ return..first thought is will they still be in business by late November...

[Jaa]

You have forgotten the dividends actual returns 1-Oct-13 to today are:
AIR 232%,
QAN 317%
AirAsia - dunno, but a little better than 17%
AirAsiaX is correct.

Fly em, don't buy em.

Sure, but dividends just make the case stronger. With 5 year returns of over 200% and 300% why do you still say never to invest in airlines?!?!

Have you swapped your stripes for Buffet's spots and gone into his "never invest in airlines" cave??

There are substantial barriers to entry for new competitors as Air Asia X, Jetstar in NZ and Norwegian prove. Plane production is limited in the medium term as are pilots, engineers and now even engines. Plenty of short term risks that can trip up under funded or unlucky new entrants (Kiwi Air, Origin Pacific etc). And of course strong demand growth that has continued for decades as per seat costs fall.

Top brands with captive and rational home markets like Air NZ, Qantas and the US big 4 have proved resilient and attract the best employees and customers. They are like the Apple of their respective markets earning the majority of the industry's profits compared to the budget airlines that get left over crumbs just as Android manufacturers do.

[Baa_Baa]

Sure, but dividends just make the case stronger. With 5 year returns of over 200% and 300% why do you still say never to invest in airlines?!?!

Have you swapped your stripes for Buffet's spots and gone into his "never invest in airlines" cave??

There are substantial barriers to entry for new competitors as Air Asia X, Jetstar in NZ and Norwegian prove. Plane production is limited in the medium term as are pilots, engineers and now even engines. Plenty of short term risks that can trip up under funded or unlucky new entrants (Kiwi Air, Origin Pacific etc). And of course strong demand growth that has continued for decades as per seat costs fall.

Top brands with captive and rational home markets like Air NZ, Qantas and the US big 4 have proved resilient and attract the best employees and customers. They are like the Apple of their respective markets earning the majority of the industry's profits compared to the budget airlines that get left over crumbs just as Android manufacturers do.

@Jaa the spotty one can speak for himself.

I would put forward a perspective that these cyclicals are the definition of volatility and over a long period of time have proven limited capital gains with wild swings during the in-between times. $3.26 high Jan 2016 to $1.72 low Oct 2016 back to $3.60 high Nov 2017, double top $3.61 high Sept 2017 and a bumpier ride since then than a NW gales force landing at Wellington airport.

Sure, the dividends smooth out the volatility, but imho unless you're a savvy trader it's better to either shut your eyes and count only the dividends, or stay out of this stomach churning cyclical with it's bumpy in betweens. Conversely, savvy traders make a lot more trading the momentum, but they're savvy traders and incidentally pickup the occasional dividend as a bonus if they happen to be in for an up cycle.

jmho. Some with long memories will also remember AIR at $0.21 when the government bailed them out. That was shocking at the time for the panic stricken, but mana from heaven for the buy-ins and traders bottom feeding.

For many, AIR is just too volatile to be taken seriously. It's not a buy and hold imo especially for anyone sensitive to capital management or those without the skills to manage their capital.

[iceman]

Try living in the regions! Farming of a different kind - cash cows!

The Beagle is on record on this thread to tell us Citizens of Shane Jones´regions to stop bleating about airfares and be pleased AIR wants to serve us. Different strokes for different folks :-)

[Beagle]

The Beagle is on record on this thread to tell us Citizens of Shane Jones´regions to stop bleating about airfares and be pleased AIR wants to serve us. Different strokes for different folks :-)

What I was trying to get across is that the economics of flying smaller planes (I believe this may have been at the time AIR were still flying 19 seater Beechcraft 1900's) is very, very different to jets.
You still have to have two pilots and pay landing fees and related costs whether you're flying 19 or nearly ten times that many in a fully loaded A320.
The fact that despite some very expensive fares on those aircraft on regionals services AIR admitted they were losing $1m a month and extricated themselves from using them validates my viewpoint.
To some extent a somewhat similar situation presents with their 50 seater aircraft. $500 return on a main trunk route between Auckland and Wellington on an A320 is something else.

[winner69]

Just as well AIR don’t rort families like some do

Probably that Primera Air did such things and they have just gone bust (had 18 jets)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12136033

[iceman]

What I was trying to get across is that the economics of flying smaller planes (I believe this may have been at the time AIR were still flying 19 seater Beechcraft 1900's) is very, very different to jets.
You still have to have two pilots and pay landing fees and related costs whether you're flying 19 or nearly ten times that many in a fully loaded A320.
The fact that despite some very expensive fares on those aircraft on regionals services AIR admitted they were losing $1m a month and extricated themselves from using them validates my viewpoint.
To some extent a somewhat similar situation presents with their 50 seater aircraft. $500 return on a main trunk route between Auckland and Wellington on an A320 is something else.

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend

[couta1]

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend The Beagle wouldnt live long as a fish.Lol.

[winner69]

Chris not very PC today

Less hui but more do-ey he told the Government

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12136103

[Beagle]

I was just having you on mate and looks like I got a bark out of you. All in jest my friend


The Beagle wouldnt live long as a fish.Lol.

Beagles are hopeless when it comes to food whether it's bait or not...they just go for it lol
Guess I'm still licking my wounds over Chris Luxon wanting me to pay part of his Christmas bonus lol
I could resort to flying Jetheap to Wellington to attend the CMO annual meeting now I'm not longer a shareholder but No, not even if it is free.

P.S Shane Jones seems to have got under a lot of people's skin with his bulldog behavior. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12135746

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12136103

Chris Luxon calls it as it really is.

[Timesurfer]

Good luck getting a rational prediction of the future with Shane Jones gobbing off as he does.

We be hoping that the airlines aren't about to capitulate
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/104320945/first-stage-of-new-nelson-airport-terminal-to-open-in-october

[winner69]

Fuel price up and up.

Chairman hinted F19 earnings possible at lower end of guidance and taking into account the $40m engine problem F19 earnings could be (likely) be 25 cents a share

That puts AIR on a PE of around 12 — pretty high for a cyclical airline when nowhere at bottom of the cycle.

That’s how I see it

[Raz]

clouds aplenty...

[Beagle]

Fuel price up and up.

Chairman hinted F19 earnings possible at lower end of guidance and taking into account the $40m engine problem F19 earnings could be (likely) be 25 cents a share

That puts AIR on a PE of around 12 — pretty high for a cyclical airline when nowhere at bottom of the cycle.

That’s how I see it

Agreed especially when one considers there no clearly defined timeline for resolution of the rolls royce engine problems and no timeline or certainty that even when these engine issues are eventually resolved, (if ever), that the aircraft will regain full etops rating again so they can be used as intended. Headwinds are obvious and look to be intensifying.

[Rep]

A quandry for Air New Zealand given the circumstances and the history of the aviator involved. A complex set of circumstances and considerations, notwithstanding the questions you have involving the safety of the public.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12138569

[Beagle]

A quandry for Air New Zealand given the circumstances and the history of the aviator involved. A complex set of circumstances and considerations, notwithstanding the questions you have involving the safety of the public.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12138569

I read that this morning and must admit I couldn't help feeling sorry for the guy. I know we hold pilots to very high standards but I pondered how flustered I have been on the odd occasion when driving my car in a super high stress traffic situation. I don't know what lead to the lock out situation in Perth which sounds completely unacceptable but he who is without sin feel free to cast the first stone. After 30 years and seeing that senior pilots can make very good money towards the middle and latter part of their career, circa $300-400K+ I would hope he has salted away enough for a long and comfortable retirement.

[peat]

but thats exactly the skill required, to not be stressed out in a stressful situation.

you gotta go dude, you've had your time. nothing bad , just see ya .

[dobby41]

but thats exactly the skill required, to not be stressed out in a stressful situation.

you gotta go dude, you've had your time. nothing bad , just see ya .

That was my thought.
Beagle driving his car and the pilot are not comparable at all - tells me not to employ beagle as a pilot either.

[Biscuit]

That was my thought.
Beagle driving his car and the pilot are not comparable at all - tells me not to employ beagle as a pilot either.

or as a chauffeur?

[percy]

but thats exactly the skill required, to not be stressed out in a stressful situation.

you gotta go dude, you've had your time. nothing bad , just see ya .

My late friend, who was an Air NZ pilot, flying to Europe told me, 90% of the time it was sheer boredom,and 10% absolute panic.!

A pilot who can not cope with the panic should not be flying.

[Beagle]

That was my thought.
Beagle driving his car and the pilot are not comparable at all - tells me not to employ beagle as a pilot either.


Seems like a lifetime ago but Beagle tried being Snoopy and getting his pilot's license but he found the red baron stressed him out too much lol

[winner69]

Chris will be sending out more emails

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12139523

Jeez one punter seems really pissed ...he probably thought he was special and AIR loved him to bits. Real world problems eh

''I'd be interested to know their selection criteria for who is actually given entry to the Koru Lounge – and who gets bumped to the Strata Lounge."

[Raz]

Chris will be sending out more emails

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12139523

Jeez one punter seems really pissed ...he probably thought he was special and AIR loved him to bits. Real world problems eh

''I'd be interested to know their selection criteria for who is actually given entry to the Koru Lounge – and who gets bumped to the Strata Lounge."

He must be myopic if he just seen this happening..it been going on for ages...he is obviously not that bright to even work out the clear alternative thru Auckland

[iceman]

So the under performance of Rolls Royce engines on the A380s could lead to the end of the A380 production !
RR certainly not having a good couple of years https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2018/10/negotiations-between-emirates-and-airbus-over-a380-have-stalled.html

[Beagle]

So the under performance of Rolls Royce engines on the A380s could lead to the end of the A380 production !
RR certainly not having a good couple of years https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2018/10/negotiations-between-emirates-and-airbus-over-a380-have-stalled.html

I think Emirates with their Trent 900, although somewhat disappointed with fuel consumption should be pleased the fan blades on their engines are holding together.
Maybe the 900 is as far as this engine type should ever have been developed ?...push an engine design too far as we see in the Trent 1000 and reliability and longevity can suffer badly.

On another r subject, a nervous flyer ? Check this out https://www.msn.com/en-nz/travel/news/pilot-answers-all-the-questions-every-terrified-flier-wants-to-know-from-turbulence-to-landing/ar-BBO98fC?ocid=spartandhp

[Raz]

So the under performance of Rolls Royce engines on the A380s could lead to the end of the A380 production !
RR certainly not having a good couple of years https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2018/10/negotiations-between-emirates-and-airbus-over-a380-have-stalled.html

Intersting, missed this...

So lounge drama continues, third day in a row in the herald...management do deserve it, they have nickel-and-dime people for so long while degrading their service :)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140038

[winner69]

Intersting, missed this...

So lounge drama continues, third day in a row in the herald...management do deserve it, they have nickel-and-dime people for so long while degrading their service :)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140038

Bugger ...so the peaceful spots out in ‘dime and nickel-and-dime area are going to become overcrowded

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm flying on Sunday night out of AKL, with 5hrs between my domestic and international flight. Will see what the 'scrum' is like.

Certainly AKL domestic can be pretty horrific early morning.

[Beagle]

Dow transport index down 3.5% overnight. Could be some turbulence for AIR today. Keep seat belt fastened or head for the emergency exit ?

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12139930

[Robomo]

Would not get too excited, the Dow Jones has simply gone back to where it was 7 weeks ago.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12143055

Chris Luxon loves his greenwashing. No mention of how much shareholders money is being "invested"

[IAK]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12143055

Chris Luxon loves his greenwashing. No mention of how much shareholders money is being "invested"

Agree, he should be concentrating on the A380's Rolls-Royce engines.

[Snow Leopard]

As AIR have no A380's I guess Chris does not give a hoot for their engines.

Meanwhile SP now in the sensible range, if it continues it's descent far enough then it would almost be worth buying.

[iceman]

As AIR have no A380's I guess Chris does not give a hoot for their engines.

Meanwhile SP now in the sensible range, if it continues it's descent far enough then it would almost be worth buying.

I think we know he means the RR Dreamliner engines and yes Chris sure has to worry about them !

[Beagle]

As AIR have no A380's I guess Chris does not give a hoot for their engines.

Meanwhile SP now in the sensible range, if it continues it's descent far enough then it would almost be worth buying.


$2.50 my target point of interest. Hopefully by then RR will have worked out how to slow down the process of their Trent 1000 fan blades turning into Swiss cheese.

[IAK]

I think we know he means the RR Dreamliner engines and yes Chris sure has to worry about them !

Whoops my bad, Dreamliner thanks Iceman. Rolls Royce certainly having a bad time of it with the Trent 1000 for the 787 and the Trent 900 for the A380. Hopefully, they weren't insured with CBL!

[Joshuatree]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12143055

Chris Luxon loves his greenwashing. No mention of how much shareholders money is being "invested"

No money atp. really cool , vertical takeoff , autopilot and electric , estimate 5 years away,bring it on!

[Beagle]

No money atp. really cool , vertical takeoff , autopilot and electric , estimate 5 years away,bring it on!

Its "Jetsons" stuff isn't it which is of course very exciting but I expect in due course we will see transfers for example from Auckland airport to home to be extremely expensive and subject to strict weight limitations. Fat hounds like myself better start dieting right away lol

[Benny1]

Its "Jetsons" stuff isn't it which is of course very exciting but I expect in due course we will see transfers for example from Auckland airport to home to be extremely expensive and subject to strict weight limitations. Fat hounds like myself better start dieting right away lol

You'll be right mate just leave your wallet at home😃

[steveb]

Its "Jetsons" stuff isn't it which is of course very exciting but I expect in due course we will see transfers for example from Auckland airport to home to be extremely expensive and subject to strict weight limitations. Fat hounds like myself better start dieting right away lol
" AIR bring in a fat tax" Now that would be an interesting headline! Mind you it could give jacinda a few more ideas in the ever increasing taxes they can think off

[Snow Leopard]

Link: Why the world’s flight paths are such a mess (https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/world/article/2165980/flight-paths/index.html)

Might be of interest to some of you.

[blackcap]

Link: Why the world’s flight paths are such a mess (https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/world/article/2165980/flight-paths/index.html)

Might be of interest to some of you.

That was cool. Thanks.

[Rep]

Air NZ will be looking to make a decision on the replacement for their 777-200ER - they have 9 and there are another 8 777-300ER.
Their choices are going to come down to the Airbus 350 XWB or the 777-X series.
The 777-X is exclusively running the General Electric GE9X which is the biggest turbofan in the world today and the Airbus runs the Rolls Royce Trent XWB which is a development of the Trent 900 and 1000.

You would think that Air NZ would be having a really good chat with Airbus and Rolls Royce about the XWB and that Boeing would want to keep Air NZ to replace their 777 with another 777.

[Snow Leopard]

Air NZ will be looking to make a decision on the replacement for their 777-200ER - they have 9 and there are another 8 777-300ER.
Their choices are going to come down to the Airbus 350 XWB or the 777-X series.
The 777-X is exclusively running the General Electric GE9X which is the biggest turbofan in the world today and the Airbus runs the Rolls Royce Trent XWB which is a development of the Trent 900 and 1000.

You would think that Air NZ would be having a really good chat with Airbus and Rolls Royce about the XWB and that Boeing would want to keep Air NZ to replace their 777 with another 777.

Of the 9+8 one of each is a short-term replacement for the Bad Dreams.

Which brings me round to the fact that you can replace a -200 with a 787 which are now tried and tested :p.

I would have thought you would want 777-8 as are placement for the -200 but they are not due (for first delivery) until 2022 and if they are late (787's were 4 years late) then you are up a tree without a paddle.

So A350 it is then. :D

I am glad I do not have to make these decisions.

[iceman]

Air NZ will be looking to make a decision on the replacement for their 777-200ER - they have 9 and there are another 8 777-300ER.
Their choices are going to come down to the Airbus 350 XWB or the 777-X series.
The 777-X is exclusively running the General Electric GE9X which is the biggest turbofan in the world today and the Airbus runs the Rolls Royce Trent XWB which is a development of the Trent 900 and 1000.

You would think that Air NZ would be having a really good chat with Airbus and Rolls Royce about the XWB and that Boeing would want to keep Air NZ to replace their 777 with another 777.

Can't see why any airline would be making the RR Trent engines, whatever variety, a part of their future plans. One also wonders, after hearing of Airbus' A380 production demise largely blamed on RR engine under performance, whether Airbus continuing with RR is a European political decision, not a commercial one !

[Rep]

Of the 9+8 one of each is a short-term replacement for the Bad Dreams.

Which brings me round to the fact that you can replace a -200 with a 787 which are now tried and tested :p.

I would have thought you would want 777-8 as are placement for the -200 but they are not due (for first delivery) until 2022 and if they are late (787's were 4 years late) then you are up a tree without a paddle.

So A350 it is then. :D

I am glad I do not have to make these decisions.

The A350 XWB has EASA ETOPS 370 and is looking for 420+ in due course, the US FAA has given it ETOPS 180+ but then the bad dream with the Trent had 330 ETOPS but the FAA has cut that back to 140... The 787 was late because it was all new incl composites and the 777 is a development of an existing aircraft... but Airbus can get it wrong too look at the sales of the 340 and 380 four engine frames vs the twins which is why the 350 is being pushed but either way it’s a big call and a pivotal one

[Beagle]

I think they've been badly burned with the nightmare-liner. $30-40m in extra costs this year that appear to be unrecoverable from RR is not the full extent of it. The brand has been materially impacted by inconsistent and substandard service since this fiasco started unfolding. One would hope that AIR senior exec's have the common sense to be gun-shy of choosing any aircraft powered by any iteration of that trent engine.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12144673

Dow transports down another 2.5% overnight on Wall St. I hope people have already made their decision to either fix their seat belt very firmly or look for the emergency exit. GLTA. For me, TA looks shocking and there's no way I'm going to get in front of that plane flying at 500 knots even if the spotty leopard thinks we're approaching fair value.

P.S. Koru lounge fiasco and speaking of fiasco's... some interesting comment on nightmare-liner problems. Problems to last at least another 12 months.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12144798

Probably the next 12 months is a good time to be "on holiday" from having shares in AIR.

[Beagle]

What a truly shocking mess this situation is but at least now Saudi Arabia have stopped threatening to weaponize oil
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/22/khashoggi-crisis-saudi-arabia-says-no-intention-for-a-1973-style-oil-embargo.html
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/leaked-video-shows-khashoggi-body-double-after-killing/ar-BBOJRD1?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp
If the crown prince the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia is clearly implicated there could be trouble ahead.

[couta1]

Acting like a real dog this one, I swapped a 10k divvy for a 60k red arrow, not a particularly tasteful swap.Lol

[BlackPeter]

Wasn't Dame Walsh buying last week? Must be all good, than ...

[Beagle]

Acting like a real dog this one, I swapped a 10k divvy for a 60k red arrow, not a particularly tasteful swap.Lol

The whole market is acting like a mutt with fleas, mange and worms. I guess the question is what happens to the 33 year old prince in charge of Saudi Arabia when it becomes obvious, (if it isn't already), that he was directly responsible for ordering the brutal killing of that journalist ? Does his 82 year old father appoint someone else when the whole world tries to sanction the Saudi's for this deplorable action or does the prince, (spoilt brat that's been wildly over indulged ?) give the fingers to the west and pull back on oil production and throw the supply demand situation for oil into complete disarray sending oil into the stratosphere ?

Like it or not the Saudi's have the power to cripple the world by withdrawing a massive part of their oil supply sending prices skyrocketing. There's a chance this thing gets even uglier than it already is and we all know airlines are massive consumers of oil.

[couta1]

You know things are ugly when the forum is as quiet as a church mouse bar a half a dozen posters.Lol

[BlackPeter]

You know things are ugly when the forum is as quiet as a church mouse bar a half a dozen posters.Lol

Well, maybe it is just the great weather outside ...

... posting from my deck chair in the sun ;);

[Bobdn]

You know things are ugly when the forum is as quiet as a church mouse bar a half a dozen posters.Lol

Yes indeed.

[Jaa]

Like it or not the Saudi's have the power to cripple the world by withdrawing a massive part of their oil supply sending prices skyrocketing. There's a chance this thing gets even uglier than it already is and we all know airlines are massive consumers of oil.

I don't think this is quite correct. Saudi Arabia has a large budget deficit, high unemployment and an increasingly restless and mostly young population. They can't afford to turn off the taps. They need to sell oil to get the money to keep the population happy and avoid an Arab spring like movement.

Not just now either, but over the next 10-20 years, the last thing the Saudis want is another big price spike that further encourages investment in alternative oil sources and non-oil replacements that would depress the oil price long term.

[sb9]

QAN quarterly update across the ditch looks pretty good. Should help sentiment.

Disc - not a holding

[Beagle]

QAN quarterly update across the ditch looks pretty good. Should help sentiment.

Disc - not a holding

Down 23 cps now, just over 4% to A$5.39. Haven't read it but there could be something in there the market isn't especially keen on ? I guess the worry is outlook both in terms of the oil price and what might happen to demand if the market gets even more bearish.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Queer and Nasty Airlines report higher revenue and higher fares.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-revenue-jumps-on-higher-fares-20181025-p50bt5.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS> Oops sb9 beat me with his post.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12148774 Back to the future. Meals and baggage included in the price.

[Beagle]

But now the divorce from Virgin is final AIR are firing back with the first round of the acrimonious ? competitive battle. https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-on-sale?utm_source=dfa&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=NZ-AC00288-Tasman48HrSale-Display-October-2018-Retail&dclid=CNGkwP7Yqt4CFdOhaAodtLMAEg
$149 to Aussie, cheap as chips.

[Filthy]

But now the divorce from Virgin is final AIR are firing back with the first round of the acrimonious ? competitive battle. https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-on-sale?utm_source=dfa&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=NZ-AC00288-Tasman48HrSale-Display-October-2018-Retail&dclid=CNGkwP7Yqt4CFdOhaAodtLMAEg
$149 to Aussie, cheap as chips.

they will nail you on the return leg though

[Beagle]

they will nail you on the return leg though
Indeed and also expect the Australian Government and Sydney airport in particular to give you a "big kiss" as a thank you for coming over with their extraordinary departure and airport charges. Cunning marketing on AIR's part though isn't it because if they advertised the return fare price nobody would think there was a sale lol.

[allfromacell]

Tragic to see a Lion air plane crashed today, fairly new 737 with just 800 hours flown.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/326049/289555.pdf

Good solid stat's and good yields. If it wasn't for the seriousness of the swiss cheese rolls royce fan blades I'd be a buyer at this price.

[Bobdn]

I still hold Air.

13.9% of my investments are in Energy - this includes a portion of my Genesis holding (one third of Genesis is strictly Energy and two thirds utility) and the rest mostly Australian oil producers.

10% of my investments are Industrial, which includes transportation, which includes Air.

So mostly I want oil prices to hit $140US a bbl. But if it gets back down to $30US a barrel? oh well.

[Joshuatree]

Tragic to see a Lion air plane crashed today, fairly new 737 with just 800 hours flown.

Its possible the plane was flying without qualified pilots.
More and more cheaper Systems Operators are used, trained to "fly"automated systems, then when given a visual approach dont know what to do. No stick and rudder experience or skills. No experience re what to do in an emergency or when instruments are faulty.

[BlackPeter]

Its possible the plane was flying without qualified pilots.
More and more cheaper Systems Operators are used, trained to "fly"automated systems, then when given a visual approach dont know what to do. No stick and rudder experience or skills. No experience re what to do in an emergency or when instruments are faulty.

Pretty outrageous statement - would you have any supporting evidence for your claim of Lion Air using unqualified pilots?

On facevalue it does not look like they hire unqualified pilots:

https://rishworthaviation.com/pilot-jobs/wings-air-atr72-500600-tre-ref1089

[Joshuatree]

Its possible. at 5 min 38 secs on this below.
Lion Air Indonesia crash (https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/thepanel/audio/2018669002/lion-air-indonesia-crash)

[blackcap]

Its possible. at 5 min 38 secs on this below.
Lion Air Indonesia crash (https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/thepanel/audio/2018669002/lion-air-indonesia-crash)

Sounds like conjecture.

[Joshuatree]

Sounds like fact that there aren't fully qualified pilots on some planes, possibly low budget asian/ african airlines(that last part is conjecture)

[BlackPeter]

Its possible. at 5 min 38 secs on this below.
Lion Air Indonesia crash (https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/thepanel/audio/2018669002/lion-air-indonesia-crash)

I guess checking the facts might help. In this case we know the pilot was "properly" qualified:

http://thegoaspotlight.com/lion-air-pilot-an-indian-national/


he got his pilot training from Bel Air International and had earlier worked with Emirates and later joined the Indonesian carrier Lion Air.

Bel Air is a Californian pilot training facility - and Emirates (where he flew before) has top quality staff and an impeccable safety record. Actually - might be better than AIR's ...

[Joshuatree]

Thanks.Just going on the facts i had. Sure is a mystery.
Scary to think there are some airlines that use systems operators though isn't it.

[Beagle]

AIR hire pilots that have been trained the old fashioned way through flight schools using real aircraft...something useful to know when your worried about their skills landing at Wellington is a storm.
Oil price has dropped considerably and no surprise that the SP has started to recover. I'd like to buy but the aforementioned engine issue isn't anywhere near close to resolution.

[777]

Thanks.Just going on the facts i had. Sure is a mystery.
Scary to think there are some airlines that use systems operators though isn't it.

There are no facts in that interview to support your take on things. There is no way any airline , low cost included, would knowingly employ unqualified pilots.

Scary to think that you believe it is the norm.

[Joshuatree]

Maybe turn your hearing aids up777. What is your definition of norm by the way(not norman:)

[Snow Leopard]

Its possible the plane was flying without qualified pilots.
More and more cheaper Systems Operators are used, trained to "fly"automated systems, then when given a visual approach dont know what to do. No stick and rudder experience or skills. No experience re what to do in an emergency or when instruments are faulty.

How can you post this dross?
Have you any experience of distinguishing between the truth and the first thing that confirms your prejudices?

Meanwhile AIR never got down to a price where I considered it a safe discount to fair value and is now flying a little above it's optimum cruising price.

[Joshuatree]

Try listening for once ;your instructions, the link i have provided above. You will hear from captain john nance veteran 737 pilot and International recognised air safety advocate and aviation analyst.
To make it ABC for you about 1 min 20 seconds in. I believe he knows what he is talking about.he cites an example with an Asean crash re 4 years ago in san francisco, the "pilot" was a system operator.

[Beagle]

How can you post this dross?
Have you any experience of distinguishing between the truth and the first thing that confirms your prejudices?

Meanwhile AIR never got down to a price where I considered it a safe discount to fair value and is now flying a little above it's optimum cruising price.

The dog and the cat are on the same page with their thinking on the SP. Some airlines do an awful lot of their training on flight simulators and I for one prefer to have pilots flying aircraft I am on who have been trained predominantly the old fashioned way through flight schools on Cessna's and similar.

[Joshuatree]

Me too but you can see the pressure is on to take shortcuts. 200,000 pilots wanted immediately.
Global pilot shortage affects NZ | RNZhttps://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/.../global-pilot-shortage-affects-nz (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjo_6OrgbLeAhVVknAKHZmtA_IQFjACegQIChAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.radionz.co.nz%2Fnational%2Fp rogrammes%2Fninetonoon%2Faudio%2F2018658849%2Fglob al-pilot-shortage-affects-nz&usg=AOvVaw14NqLyAOeIagTacL3VBLb8)

[Robomo]

Might I suggest the book QF32 by Richard de Crespigny. QF32 had an uncontained engine failure in 2010 after leaving Singapore. To quote..."QF32 shows exactly what goes into the making of a top-level airline pilot , and the extraordinary skills and training needed to keep us safe in the air."

Chesley Sullenberger (Captain of the plane that ditched in the Hudson River in 2009) tells a similar story of the well-trained crew that understands planes, flying and the process of what to do when the unimaginable and unforseeable happens. It might only happen once every 5 million flights but when it does....

I'm with Beagle - training on real planes counts.

[winner69]

Share price on fire today .....hope the market punters are fully trained

[winner69]

The September operating stats were pretty staggering

Are they what’s behind the price action or is the tumbling fuel costs?

[Joshuatree]

Yeah, stick and rudder all the way:)

[Bobdn]

The September operating stats were pretty staggering

Are they what’s behind the price action or is the tumbling fuel costs?

I don't know. Would the Commerce Commission decision be a small contributing factor as well?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12152561

Air is paying a gross dividend yield of 11 per cent. Maybe people just like huge returns.

[BlackPeter]

Might I suggest the book QF32 by Richard de Crespigny. QF32 had an uncontained engine failure in 2010 after leaving Singapore. To quote..."QF32 shows exactly what goes into the making of a top-level airline pilot , and the extraordinary skills and training needed to keep us safe in the air."

Chesley Sullenberger (Captain of the plane that ditched in the Hudson River in 2009) tells a similar story of the well-trained crew that understands planes, flying and the process of what to do when the unimaginable and unforseeable happens. It might only happen once every 5 million flights but when it does....

I'm with Beagle - training on real planes counts.

Hmm - aren't you contradicting yourself? These events which only happen every 5 million flights can hardly be practised in a real plane? You see - they still do need these planes and we want to use the pilots as well before they had their 5th million flying lesson ;);

I do prefer pilots who had extensive simulator training plus a good base of real flying and an up to date health check - and I think that's true for all carriers I flew with so far, though I hear that even some gold plated carriers seem to have from time to time problems with pilots who slipped through the mental health check (might be one of these things).

Even cheap airlines do value their planes and their brand - i.e. they do have a strong motivation to use only well trained pilots.

Implying that AIR has a better safety record than others due to better pilot training is - I think - quite dishonest.

[777]

The dog and the cat are on the same page with their thinking on the SP. Some airlines do an awful lot of their training on flight simulators and I for one prefer to have pilots flying aircraft I am on who have been trained predominantly the old fashioned way through flight schools on Cessna's and similar.

All pilots would be trained this way. Light aircraft first and gradually larger more complex types. Their first simulator training would be when they join an airline. Believe me a simulator is the like the real thing and al lot more training can be achieved in a simulator than can be done safely in an aircraft and a lot more cost effective.

A lot of dribble on this subject being spouted on this thread.

[Blue Skies]

Might I suggest the book QF32 by Richard de Crespigny. QF32 had an uncontained engine failure in 2010 after leaving Singapore. To quote..."QF32 shows exactly what goes into the making of a top-level airline pilot , and the extraordinary skills and training needed to keep us safe in the air."

Chesley Sullenberger (Captain of the plane that ditched in the Hudson River in 2009) tells a similar story of the well-trained crew that understands planes, flying and the process of what to do when the unimaginable and unforseeable happens. It might only happen once every 5 million flights but when it does....

I'm with Beagle - training on real planes counts.


Agreed & you can add what happened to Air France's flight AF 447 Rio Paris in 2009 to that. Talk to any Air NZ or CX (Cathay Pacific) pilot & they will tell you that plane should never have crashed. It got into a stall the auto pilot disengaged & the pilots without sufficient experience or understanding for the situation became overwhelmed & unable to recover control despite having sufficient height & time to do so.
Air NZ pilots are so well trained having come up through thousands of hours real flying time, then regular retraining on flight simulators they can handle just about anything.

[Snow Leopard]

Try listening for once ;your instructions, the link i have provided above. You will hear from captain john nance veteran 737 pilot and International recognised air safety advocate and aviation analyst.
To make it ABC for you about 1 min 20 seconds in. I believe he knows what he is talking about.he cites an example with an Asean crash re 4 years ago in san francisco, the "pilot" was a system operator.

I listened to the entire thing before making my comment which is why I made it. You latched on to his own opinion/biases on this one item in the entire 'speculation' about the crash.


Me too but you can see the pressure is on to take shortcuts. 200,000 pilots wanted immediately.
Global pilot shortage affects NZ | RNZhttps://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/.../global-pilot-shortage-affects-nz (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjo_6OrgbLeAhVVknAKHZmtA_IQFjACegQIChAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.radionz.co.nz%2Fnational%2Fp rogrammes%2Fninetonoon%2Faudio%2F2018658849%2Fglob al-pilot-shortage-affects-nz&usg=AOvVaw14NqLyAOeIagTacL3VBLb8)

Again you badly misinformed, why not try learning a little on a subject before posting?

There are currently approximately 300,000 commercial pilots world-wide and the need for 70 (or more depending on whose figures you believe) new pilots a day to cope with expansion and replacement of retirees.

The 200,000 would be required over the next six to eight years.

There is a pilot squeeze on and this problem has been known for years but it is only recently that airlines are becoming more proactive about it.

Whilst Qantas & Virgin Oz are now busy setting up pilot training schools etc to provide future pilots for themselves I am not convinced that AIR is doing enough.

[Robomo]

Read the book. What happened on QF32 was never envisaged so de Crespigny had to go back to the very basics of flight and logically work it through to what the crippled plane presented him with, which was quite unlike anything else that ahd happened to him in some 30 years of flying (real planes and simulators).

Simulators obviously have their place but I suggest there is nothing quite like the real thing to sharpen the mind.

I don't imply that AirNZ has a better safety record due to better pilot training. I don't think there is any significant difference between any of the worlds tier 1 airlines and their pilots.

[Joshuatree]

I listened to the entire thing before making my comment which is why I made it. You latched on to his own opinion/biases on this one item in the entire 'speculation' about the crash.



Again you badly misinformed, why not try learning a little on a subject before posting?

There are currently approximately 300,000 commercial pilots world-wide and the need for 70 (or more depending on whose figures you believe) new pilots a day to cope with expansion and replacement of retirees.

The 200,000 would be required over the next six to eight years.

There is a pilot squeeze on and this problem has been known for years but it is only recently that airlines are becoming more proactive about it.

Whilst Qantas & Virgin Oz are now busy setting up pilot training schools etc to provide future pilots for themselves I am not convinced that AIR is doing enough.

Try reading; 200,00 worldwide shortage now

[Joshuatree]

Captain John Nance is an expert but you know better?Of course. Its POSSIBLE and a very good subject to debate. A very good subject to think about.I know i would rather fly with an experienced pilot who has used stick and rudder and not someone who has been learning just on a simulator.

[Yoda]

And meanwhile the shares go up 12% in 4 days and not a mention on here except one, just people arguing about pilots by people i suspect cant fly a plane themselves . But i stand to be corrected . Can we move on, .......
Any ideas why the SP JUMPED.?.... Its beginning to sound like Facebook !

[Xerof]

My son has just signed for Emirates based in Dubai, flying the A380's.

They are endeavouring to employ roughly 700 new (experienced) pilots each year for the foreseeable future, that future being measured in decades. A good number are being taken from local NZ airlines. He had 14 candidates with him in Dubai for a 3 day assessment programme, and unsurprisingly, he was the only Kiwi. All of the 14 were from different countries. Wow, big unit eh? They are attracted from everywhere, but all have to meet the Emirates criteria, regardless of background experience. 4 were offered roles out the 14, but I guess some weeks they get luckier. The recruitment process rolls over each and every week, 52 weeks a year, to very exacting standards.

A figure bandied about by Emirates HR when he was there was that globally ~ 160,000 pilots will be needed over the next 8 to 10 years. I'll just put that out there for you guys to get prickly over

I'm hearing that more and more of the local routes are being crewed by Australian based pilots to cover shortages in NZ, so I presume the life is slowly being sucked out of the local talent pool. I hope something is being done about it, but don't know.

As far as I know, every wannabe pilot starts off doing 10 hours in a trainer before going solo, then proceeds through the Aero club or GA industry, getting used and abused by those outfits who might be willing to give them valuable hours in various types of planes in order to get type ratings and the 700 or so flying hours needed to even be sniffed at by commercial airlines, and thats after attaining a CPL, which takes many different formats and routes for achievement of that goal.

Simulators are predominantly used to test licensed pilots on their ability to handle emergency procedures in the particular aircraft they hold ratings for. I don't know of any pilots that learn to fly exclusively in simulators - is that out of the Boys Own Annual?

But I'll ask my son - he might know if it's true or not. I think he'll just laugh though.

[Xerof]

And meanwhile the shares go up 12% in 4 days and not a mention on here except one, just people arguing about pilots by people i suspect cant fly a plane themselves . But i stand to be corrected . Can we move on, .......
Any ideas why the SP JUMPED.?.... Its beginning to sound like Facebook !
Because it went down 13% beforehand?

And sorry for perpetuating the pilot stuff, but I was typing as you posted your retort.

I did note the Lion pilot was 31 and had 6k hours flying experience. That may mean different things to different people, so I'll just leave it at that

[peat]

Any ideas why the SP JUMPED.?....

10115
Oil is down a lot in the last month
(just like equities).
Perhaps enough now to take the edge off recent oil pain for airlines.

[Yoda]

I wonder if the increas of pilots needed is due to retirement of an ageing group, or more planes comeing on line due to world pop. growth? Maybe a bit of both. World markets looking good today. So hopeing for an up-day all over NZX. :p

[Blue Skies]

I don't know of any pilots that learn to fly exclusively in simulators - is that out of the Boys Own Annual?


No one suggested some pilots learnt to fly exclusively in simulators, they were talking about the relatively small amount of real flying time before flight school in simulators.
It's too much to go into here but the AF 447 crash is a tragic but interesting account of what happens when 2 pilots who were overly dependent on the use of automated flight control could not understand the aerodynamic situation the plane was in when the auto pilot suddenly disengaged due to malfunctioning & contradictory information being fed to the aircrafts computers, and in taking manual control made the situation worse. The 2 pilots then without realising it started manually giving the plane contradictory commands cancelling each other out. It was a lesson on the over dependence on automated flight control & when the computers disengaged due to the planes avionics failing & an incomplete picture of what was happening, the flying experience needed to understand which instruments to trust, which to ignore, & how to maintain the areodynamics of the plane manually.
Like everything there is a difference between pilots, i once flew around NZ with some US Navy pilots. They described the thrill (& flying skills required) of landing jets on pitch black nights in a storm on the heaving decks of aircraft carriers in the middle of the ocean (like finding and landing a jet on a tilting postage stamp) & we pancaked down from 10,000 feet almost directly above an airport in the same way they land in airports in Afghanistan & the Middle East, (to avoid gunfire during the normal long low approach). While these levels of skills ( & operating under stress) are not required for commercial pilots, I wouldn't dismiss the notion that having years of experience like a Capt Sully' or the QF Capt Crespigny wouldn't be a huge asset in the case of an emergency. Hard to replicate decision making under incredible stress in a simulator.
Anyway great to see AIR SP resuming more normal cruising altitude.
Disc. holder

[Beagle]

10115
Oil is down a lot in the last month
(just like equities).
Perhaps enough now to take the edge off recent oil pain for airlines.

Agreed. Oil is back down now to where AIR made their assumptions regarding their FY19 forecast. This is not cause for optimism per se, but just that its looking more likely they will make that forecast now.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12152812
I always enjoy watching a good dog fight as long as I'm not involved lol
Actually speaking of airport biosecurity, I hope they allow plenty of cost for premium dog food for those hard working beagles.

[winner69]

Latest safety video out

AIR have lost the plot

Chris needs to rein some people in ...he’s losing control?

[BlackPeter]

Latest safety video out

AIR have lost the plot

Chris needs to rein some people in ...he’s losing control?

Looks like Air NZ expects a lot of flexibility from their passengers - but hey, all good fun. Clearly one of the lesser boring inflight videos I've seen. Obviously - "de gustibus non est disputandum".

[Beagle]

Latest safety video out

AIR have lost the plot

Chris needs to rein some people in ...he’s losing control?

Have you got a link mate ?

[RGR367]

Have you got a link mate ?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/108320894/new-air-new-zealand-safety-video-the-most-authentically-new-zealand-yet

[Beagle]

Latest safety video out

AIR have lost the plot

Chris needs to rein some people in ...he’s losing control?

Bit of fun, I can't see a problem with it but then again not as good as this one and plenty of people had a problem with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0tkeGPG_8Q
This new one would have been better with a couple of beagle's in it somewhere.

[Sideshow Bob]

Bit of fun, I can't see a problem with it but then again not as good as this one and plenty of people had a problem with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0tkeGPG_8Q


Some people simply just have a problem with everything......

[blackcap]

This video does not do what it's intended purpose is. I am sure a majority of the passengers over 40 will not even be able to understand what is actually being conveyed. Bit sloppy. I do not have a problem with it personally but I dare say a lot of their intended audience will not even know what is being said and thus they will not get the message.
That said, they need to stop the safety briefings/videos on flights full stop. No one listens, no one pays attention, and if your plane slams into the ocean or a mountainside, no amount of oxygen, crouching and covering your face, knowing where the nearest exit is, is going to help.

[Joshuatree]

Easy to understand for this plus 40 year old and with some great humour which aids remembering.
Many plane accidents are survivable, knowing where your exit is and being close to it and sitting in the back may be the difference.

[Beagle]

Easy to understand for this plus 40 year old and with some great humour which aids remembering.
Many plane accidents are survivable, knowing where your exit is and being close to it and sitting in the back may be the difference.
Last two seats down the back of AIR's A320 are especially cramped. Really, claustrophobic, so bad, they're almost as low as Jetheaps standards so I am happy to take my chances elsewhere.

[Rep]

Easy to understand for this plus 40 year old and with some great humour which aids remembering.
Many plane accidents are survivable, knowing where your exit is and being close to it and sitting in the back may be the difference.

I have to +1 JT. There are plenty of incidents involving depressurisation of the cabin where oxygen masks have been deployed and it's evident that passengers have NFI what to do or that the masks are supposed to be worn over the nose and mouth or panic because the bag doesn't inflate. There's also ample evidence that in the event of an evacuation, that passengers retrieving hand luggage delay evacuation which has potential life and death consequences.

Likewise the investigation into Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 revealed that of the 125 casualties - many of the passengers survived the initial crash, but they had disregarded or did not hear the pilot's warning not to inflate their life jackets inside the aircraft, causing them to be pushed against the ceiling of the fuselage by the inflated life jackets when water flooded in. Unable to escape, they drowned.

An estimated 60 to 80 passengers, strapped to their seats, presumably drowned. 50 survived including 44 with serious injuries as they managed to exit the aircraft despite their injuries and survived.

I work with with a forensic odontologist who has worked on identifying bodies from dental records and after lots of discussions, I can tell you that I prefer an aisle seat within 4 rows of a door and wear leather shoes any time I fly (because feet and leg injuries from broken glass, torn sharp surfaces and burning ground slow evacuees from escaping an aircraft). And I have a bloody good open hand rugby fend if someone is between me, my kids and my wife getting out the door and they are trying to get their carryall out before we get out of the plane.

[777]

Well stated Rep.

It always amazes me the number of people that remove their shoes prior to take off. They should be on for take off and landing. That is when they are most likely to need them in anger.