AIR - Air NZ.

[oldtech]

If it falls back to the lows of 2016 - around $1.80 - I'm in! :t_up:

[couta1]

If it falls back to the lows of 2016 - around $1.80 - I'm in! :t_up: That's mortgage top up time, in the mean time only big balls players should roll the dice.

[Beagle]

This is a pretty big earnings guidance downgrade. Beagles favourite method using mid point it’s a 16% reduction (best case view down 20%) -



The company now expects earnings before taxation of $340 million to $400 million for the year ended 30 June 2019. This includes the impact of the global Rolls-Royce engine issues.

The previously announced guidance was for underlying earnings before taxation of $425 million to $525 million, which excluded an estimated $30 million to $40 million impact of schedule changes prompted by the global Rolls-Royce engine issues.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/329915/294185.pdf

All the evidence you need that global growth is slowing and the domestic economy is very weak is right there in plain sight for all to see.

As you quite rightly state Winner this is a 16% downgrade at the mid point of the respective forecast so I would expect a ~ 10% SP correction given that this affects current year earnings and may have some roll on effect to FY20. Its not a permanent impairment on their earnings ability and I think the company is right to review its cost base and I am trusting the calibre of the management to do a comprehensive job in that regard.

The Rolls Royce issue will hopefully be mostly finalised in 2019 so again hopefully this is not a permanent impairment on their future earnings capability. I think talk of a massive correction in the SP is overdone. The fall this morning to around $2.82 a few minutes ago when I looked is probably already overdone in my opinion but sentiment will remain weak for some time so anyone looking to top up probably has time on their side.

[777]

I think talk of a massive correction in the SP is overdone. The fall this morning g to around $2.82 a few minutes ago when I looked is probably already overdone in my opinion but sentiment will remain weak for some time so anyone looking to top up probably has time on their side.

But it keeps our resident bear poster happy.

[winner69]

Posted this on thl thread a while ago

Maybe the signs for this ‘slowing growth in leisure travel in NZ’ were already out there



Net migration is falling and the government want it to fall faster.

This is an interesting insight from my mate Rodney -

“It probably isn't a coincidence that net tourism and net migration have started to fall at roughly the same time much as occurred after the previous booms in the first half of the 2000s. It seems that around the same time the permanent net flow of people turns up or down the temporary flow driven mainly by tourists does the same. As covered in our housing and building reports there are good reasons for expecting further sizeable downside in net migration. By implication that implies that net tourism will probably fall further ......”

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf

[peat]

Postedvthis thl a while ago

Maybe the signs for this ‘slowing growth in leisure travel in NZ’ were already out there

I have a lot of respect for Rodney... worked with him many years ago. straight up sort of dude who isnt afraid to stand out from the crowd. I must admit I was a bit lucky to have ditched my holding recently simply due to cutting down exposure in this bearish market.

[thestg]

I didn't expect to invest again in AIR after collecting a nice profit in June 2017 (Sold for $3.18). Couldn't resist the temptation of $2.85 so am now back in with a small parcel & watching for any further discount.

[winner69]

I have a lot of respect for Rodney... worked with him many years ago. straight up sort of dude who isnt afraid to stand out from the crowd. I must admit I was a bit lucky to have ditched my holding recently simply due to cutting down exposure in this bearish market.

Not luck mate - doing what you think is right is not luck

Yep, Rodney good joker. Had a bit to do with him over the years since he left ASB.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12198445

Good Chris Luxon is taking the cost cutting seriously and leading the team doing that review...they need to be thorough. What would be helpful is if all unions were mindful that economic conditions are starting to slow and are cognisant of that with their more realistic expectations going forward.

[percy]

Start at the top and work slowly downward.

[winner69]

Start at the top and work slowly downward.

That sounds like a good strategy

[winner69]

Our man Chris’s concern about current trading has hit Qantas shares as well

[winner69]

Your man Chris doing a good job convincing his big biz peers, that the ANZ biz confidence surveys, are 'BS' and 'Junk'.
Grunter Robertson ( big shareholder! ) and PM pleased with his work? :(

Good one greater fool

[biker]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12198445

Good Chris Luxon is taking the cost cutting seriously and leading the team doing that review...they need to be thorough. What would be helpful is if all unions were mindful that economic conditions are starting to slow and are cognisant of that with their more realistic expectations going forward.

Yeah right. Corporate profits down? Go for the workers who provide it

[biker]

There is always the risk that continuing to cut costs comes back to eventually bite you in the a r s e. Especially in the airline business

[Baa_Baa]

Bugger, this has been letting out air (pun) since the double top Sept 2017, now it gaps down on a crap forecast just before the golden cross which won't happen anytime soon now, so we have to wait and see where it lands. It can be a long time between drinks (buy in) with AIR. Patience I tell myself, patience.

[Beagle]

Yeah right. Corporate profits down? Go for the workers who provide it

Average salary is over $110K. What we need is a good old fashioned wage freeze for 3 years like Joyce did with Qantas for everyone over the average salary of $110K. Was at a party on Saturday and two people I knew there from years gone by work for AIR in a fairly senior capacity...honestly their "entitlement attitude" really made quite an impression. The number of people at AIR on more than $300K per annum is really eye watering to be quite frank about it.

[Yoda]

Bugger, this has been letting out air (pun) since the double top Sept 2017, now it gaps down on a crap forecast just before the golden cross which won't happen anytime soon now, so we have to wait and see where it lands. It can be a long time between drinks (buy in) with AIR. Patience I tell myself, patience.
Maybe somewhere near the 2.60 it was in November ?
well, in 1996 it was $20 .. look at it now. Some things get better with time , and , well some things just don,t. ( maybe there was a share split, i dont know ) but the chart gives me the shivers... .imagine if that was your kiwisaver !

[dreamcatcher]

Disappointing update but was holding for div so not that upset SP probably near bottom.

Wonder what percentage of shares remain in NZ holders control.

GS update NZ$2.85

[Raz]

Disappointing update but was holding for div so not that upset SP probably near bottom.

Wonder what percentage of shares remain in NZ holders control.

GS update NZ$2.85

No sun shine in this place so focused on the sun shine outside today. Management reaction to change in trading has be slow and not well anticipated..like other companies..they act like the change in cycle conditions is new to them, perhaps it is...

[Snow Leopard]

Bit of a drop today.

I am surprised that the market was caught by surprise - it is an airline after all.

Take the mid-point and normalise out the RR fiasco and it is not too bad...
...but then don't these things come in threes?

But seriously: Get rid of that safety vid and I am sure the punters will come flocking back.

[oldtech]

Maybe somewhere near the 2.60 it was in November ?
well, in 1996 it was $20 .. look at it now. Some things get better with time , and , well some things just don,t. ( maybe there was a share split, i dont know ) but the chart gives me the shivers... .imagine if that was your kiwisaver !

Don't know about a share split, but there were Air NZ "A" and "B" shares in the 1990's, which were combined in December 2001. I don't know what the difference was between them.

[workingdad]

I wonder if a drop in forward bookings is in part related to regular and loyal flyers going else where? Lounges often full and not as good as other airlines, on-going hard line on customer complaints and of course the RR issues with inferior leased planes. I only say this as I am one that has gone off flying AIR in the last wee while for the above reasons, maybe I am not alone.

Perhaps the nation is tightening its belt a bit in anticipation of leaner times ahead.

I cant see the SP holding, historically it has been a continuing decline even against forecasts so I cant see why this one would be different, I sold out around 3.25 a while back and never came back in. Will reconsider if it drops like last time but wont be trying to catch the knife on some of those bounces it can have.

[777]

Don't know about a share split, but there were Air NZ "A" and "B" shares in the 1990's, which were combined in December 2001. I don't know what the difference was between them.

"A"shares could only be owned by New Zealanders. "B" shares could be owned by anyone where ever domiciled.

[oldtech]

"A"shares could only be owned by New Zealanders. "B" shares could be owned by anyone where ever domiciled.

Ah right, thanks.

I have just looked up my spreadsheet, and I have a note that in 2004 there was a share consolidation, where every 5 shares were consolidated into 1 share. So actually the REVERSE of a share split! Hmm ...

[winner69]

Maybe more people have decided to fly less by taking a responsible and caring attitude to the environment and the future of the world.

http://markmaking.com.au/mmwp3/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-elephant-in-the-sky_online_s.pdf

[blackcap]

Maybe more people have decided to fly less by taking a responsible and caring attitude to the environment and the future of the world.

http://markmaking.com.au/mmwp3/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-elephant-in-the-sky_online_s.pdf

Certainly not our Jacinda or her contemporaries at Davos.

[cyclist]

Maybe more people have decided to fly less by taking a responsible and caring attitude to the environment and the future of the world.http://markmaking.com.au/mmwp3/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-elephant-in-the-sky_online_s.pdfThanks for the link. If the general (rather appalling) public reaction to the article below is anything to go by, then almost certainly that isn't a major factor yet. (Lots of comments to the article saying the plane will fly anyway. True if only one person does it, but in aggregate if many start making the same choices then definitely there will be less planes flying). https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/109508954/scientist-shaun-hendys-year-of-no-flying-for-climate-change

[Sideshow Bob]

Maybe more people have decided to fly less by taking a responsible and caring attitude to the environment and the future of the world.

http://markmaking.com.au/mmwp3/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-elephant-in-the-sky_online_s.pdf

Don't worry, they are already saving the world 1 single-use shopping bag at a time...…

But woe betide anyone that gets between them and their cheap overseas holiday!!

[iceman]

Only 1500 private jets flew into Davos this year !!!!!!

[Beagle]

AIR could save millions by recycling some of the great safety video's like the body paint one and safety in paradise. Wakes wakey Chris, Sexy Sells !

[winner69]

Revenues are going to be up on last year in F19 ..that’s good

But profit before tax could be $200m less than last year

Previous guidance assumed fuel at US$85m. Did have a period where higher than this but below that now (currently mid 70s) so maybe fuel not that much adverse impact, if any, on the F19 result

AIR obviously have a big expense problem ....possibly $170m more to run the airline (excluding fuel and allowing for the RR issue) this year compared to last year.

No wonder Chris is in charge of cutting costs ....appears as if AIR has become awfully bloated over tithe last few years.

[Raz]

Revenues are going to be up on last year in F19 ..that’s good

But profit before tax could be $200m less than last year

Previous guidance assumed fuel at US$85m. Did have a period where higher than this but below that now (currently mid 70s) so maybe fuel not that much adverse impact, if any, on the F19 result

AIR obviously have a big expense problem ....possibly $170m more to run the airline (excluding fuel and allowing for the RR issue) this year compared to last year.

No wonder Chris is in charge of cutting costs ....appears as if AIR has become awfully bloated over tithe last few years.

Exactly yet they would have know this most likely even before the last general staff bonuses. The have not acted timely imho.

[winner69]

Exactly yet they would have know this most likely even before the last general staff bonuses. The have not acted timely imho.

I agree with you there.

Probably hoping things would be OK and any impending ‘problem’ would go away

To me Luxon appears a bit bored with AIR ....and has too many distractions. I think his big retention bonus only held him to this year ...hmm (might be wrong here)

[couta1]

This company is overrun with Troughers, time to cut the food rashions down so the Trough gets a bit more down time.PS-Lets switch Luxon with Herd Licker.PPS-Does Luxon play tennis.

[winner69]

This company is overrun with Troughers, time to cut the food rashions down so the Trough gets a bit more down time.PS-Lets switch Luxon with Herd Licker.PPS-Does Luxon play tennis.

Those in Fanshawe St probably safe from losing their jobs....especially the exec suite

HQ seems to be called “The Hub) ,.even featured in Wikipedia


"The Hub", Air New Zealand head office 36.84492°S 174.75332°E

Air Nelson Saab 340A (no longer operated) at Auckland Airport

A Mount Cook Airlines ATR-72-500.


The Air New Zealand head office, "The Hub," is a 15,600 square metres (168,000 sq ft) office park located at the corner of Beaumont and Fanshawe streets in the Western Reclamation Precinct 2, Auckland City;[26][27] it includes two connected six-level buildings.[27] The facility consists of a lot of glass to allow sunlight and therefore reduce electricity consumption. The building does not have cubicle walls. Lights automatically turn on at 7:30 A.M. and turn off at 6 P.M. Sensors throughout the building can turn on lights if they detect human activity, and turn off lights if human activity is not detected for 15 minutes.[

[Beagle]

Bloated and obsessed with the appearance of being green when anyone in the know knows they burn over one billion litres of aviation fuel per annum so all Chris's pet green projects are just lipstick on a very dirty pig. Enough money wasted on the complete farce of caring about the environment already ! Lets just get back to basics...people want to get from A to B and that involves burning a lot of fuel...just embrace it for what it is.
(Beagles love the smell of burnt aviation fuel and they like barking too so I did, see below)

Hi Chris,
Shareholders I know are VERY disappointed with the profit forecast downgrade.
Rolls Royce engine issues obviously having quite an impact but why are AIR not recovering all their losses from these highly problematic engines from the manufacturer ? Dreamliner become a nightmareliner ?..Time to take RR to task properly for all the losses or leave that until they can be fully quantified at the end of the fix ?
Too many people in AIR with an entitlement attitude earning over $250K in my opinion. Time for a 3 year wage freeze like Qantas did for anyone earning over this amount ?
Why waste millions ever year producing new safety video's when the public would probably enjoy you guys bring back some of the classics like the safety in paradise one or the body paint one ?
Engineers too greedy last year with their demands, outsource more engineering overseas to beat greedy unions ?
Just putting my 2 cents worth of idea's out there as it appears you could use the help to keep costs under control.
Best wishes and kind regards

No doubt some engineers won't be happy with this but that's a copy of the email I just sent to Chris and that's how I feel about it and if that's wrong in others eyes that's too bad.

[Jay]

have to agree with most if not all,. Mr Beagle
Could have added about all the electric cars - cost more in first instance, battery life??, though probably leased, suppose they did the cost analysis, extra cost of lease v difference in fuel to electricity??? One would hope so!

I'll help out shareholders, flew with then over new year and again will be in Sept/Oct, long haul this time.
Disc: not a holder at present

[777]

Bloated and obsessed with the appearance of being green when anyone in the know knows they burn over one billion litres of aviation fuel per annum so all Chris's pet green projects are just lipstick on a very dirty pig. Enough money wasted on the complete farce of caring about the environment already ! Lets just get back to basics...people want to get from A to B and that involves burning a lot of fuel...just embrace it for what it is.
(Beagles love the smell of burnt aviation fuel and they like barking too so I did, see below)

No doubt some engineers won't be happy with this but that's a copy of the email I just sent to Chris and that's how I feel about it and if that's wrong in others eyes that's too bad.

I hope Christopher does not use you as his accountant. I am sure he would be peeved at paying you by the hour and then find you spend most of each hour on sharetrader.

[blackcap]

I hope Christopher does not use you as his accountant. I am sure he would be peeved at paying you by the hour and then find you spend most of each hour on sharetrader.

Hahah lol best Lol all day!

Sorry Beagle, but you gotta admit its pretty funny :)

[Raz]

Only 1500 private jets flew into Davos this year !!!!!!

And only 55 to Queenstown this summer..its a forward indicator! :)

[Beagle]

Hahah lol best Lol all day!

Sorry Beagle, but you gotta admit its pretty funny :)

lol that was funny. Must admit I do enjoy a fair bit of discretion with how I spend my time now. Its a hard life being semi retired :)

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8c08912d/analyst-warns-air-new-zealand-may-be-in-for-more-pain.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Analyst%20warns%20Air%20New%20Zealand %20may%20be%20in%20for%20more%20pain&utm_content=Analyst%20warns%20Air%20New%20Zealand% 20may%20be%20in%20for%20more%20pain+CID_e7b4abe6be 7e0806341318c8c7671723&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8c08912danalys t-warns-air-new-zealand-may-be-in-for-more-painhtml

In other news, looks like Chris has got the message after this
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12198619 and is already starting to recycle previous proven performers.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12199374

[whome]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/ec2e3649-b02a-43a3-b84a-56f9e28ccd26

[whome]

How to keep your eye in during semi-retirement
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/be640e06-7116-4966-9e35-ab7222e3eec3

[whome]

Damn copy and paste didn’t work

[Ggcc]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/110298896/air-new-zealand-dumps-rap-safety-video

Well well well the nation votes

[Beagle]

AIR can start their cost savings program by firing all those people responsible for creating this debacle and thinking this ridiculous juvenile claptrap was good marketing.

[Beagle]

How to keep your eye in during semi-retirement
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/be640e06-7116-4966-9e35-ab7222e3eec3

Can't wait to see what it is now mate :) Probably a picture of a relaxed / sleepy Beagle with one eye open focused on his food bowl lol

[Ggcc]

AIR can start their cost savings program by firing all those people responsible for creating this debacle and thinking this ridiculous juvenile claptrap was good marketing.
I would really love to know the people who travel with AIR and their average age? Maybe they were guessing that people loved listening this nonsense, instead of the older safety videos

[Jay]

I thought along the same lines Ggcc, would not have thought a rap video would fit with the majority of their passengers, have not seen it, but don't think I'm missing anything.
Gone back to the Rachael Hunter one from 2016 I think Mr Beagle

[winner69]

I thought along the same lines Ggcc, would not have thought a rap video would fit with the majority of their passengers, have not seen it, but don't think I'm missing anything.
Gone back to the Rachael Hunter one from 2016 I think Mr Beagle

And that one with Rachael in it is pretty stupid as well

[Raz]

And that one with Rachael in it is pretty stupid as well

Given their premium pricing the common theme is they think most of their customers are stupid.

[blackcap]

Given their premium pricing the common theme is they think most of their customers are stupid.

Raz, can you expound on that argument please. I have a theory too about premium pricing but I would be interested to hear yours.

[Beagle]

Latest consumer confidence survey out and doesn't look too bad. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f378bc72/nz-consumers-still-reasonably-upbeat-and-willing-to-make-big-ticket-purchase.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20consumers%20still%20reasonably%2 0upbeat%20and%20willing%20to%20make%20big%20ticket %20purchase&utm_content=NZ%20consumers%20still%20reasonably%20 upbeat%20and%20willing%20to%20make%20big%20ticket% 20purchase+CID_95eb6279de58307810938208810aab44&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef378bc72nz-consumers-still-reasonably-upbeat-and-willing-to-make-big-ticket-purchasehtml Forward bookings dropping off must have been because of that absurd juvenile safety video.
Its time to stop mucking around and bring back the eye candy, sexy sells, always has and always will. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0tkeGPG_8Q

[GR8DAY]

......now your'e talking Beagle. Couldnt get abreast of that "other" video but definitely not the case with this one. Maybe even 2.

[winner69]

Latest consumer confidence survey out and doesn't look too bad. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f378bc72/nz-consumers-still-reasonably-upbeat-and-willing-to-make-big-ticket-purchase.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20consumers%20still%20reasonably%2 0upbeat%20and%20willing%20to%20make%20big%20ticket %20purchase&utm_content=NZ%20consumers%20still%20reasonably%20 upbeat%20and%20willing%20to%20make%20big%20ticket% 20purchase+CID_95eb6279de58307810938208810aab44&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef378bc72nz-consumers-still-reasonably-upbeat-and-willing-to-make-big-ticket-purchasehtml Forward bookings dropping off must have been because of that absurd juvenile safety video.
Its time to stop mucking around and bring back the eye candy, sexy sells, always has and always will. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0tkeGPG_8Q

Can't be any good ...only 210,000 views compared to the zillions of the 'other' one

And 10,000 of those views are you so even worse

[Timesurfer]

And 10,000 of those views are you so even worse

He has got you there.

[Beagle]

......now your'e talking Beagle. Couldnt get abreast of that "other" video but definitely not the case with this one. Maybe even 2.


Can't be any good ...only 210,000 views compared to the zillions of the 'other' one

And 10,000 of those views are you so even worse

:lol: :lol: Classic.

[couta1]

Fair value around $2.60-$2.70 I reckon. Nearly there.

[Benny1]

Hi Chris,
Shareholders I know are VERY disappointed with the profit forecast downgrade.
(AHHH—my dividend is at risk and I paid too much!!!!)

Rolls Royce engine issues obviously having quite an impact but why are AIR not recovering all their losses from these highly problematic engines from the manufacturer?

If every airline did this Rolls will almost certainly disappear leaving only ONE large engine manufacturer---not a good position for the industry to be in!! Airline’s play one maker against another when buying new aircraft, with only one manufacturer engines will skyrocket in price…and no incentive for the remaining engine maker to improve its products going forward!)

Dreamliner become a nightmareliner ?..Time to take RR to task properly for all the losses or leave that until they can be fully quantified at the end of the fix ?

See above--- although we will probably buy more of these soon!!! ( we got a good deal with Boeing and rolls! I will be gone before they arrive! Just like the last CEO)

Too many people in AIR with an entitlement attitude earning over $250K in my opinion. Time for a 3 year wage freeze like Qantas did for anyone earning over this amount ?

Hope you not including me in that!!! My deck needs upgrading again soon!!!

Why waste millions ever year producing new safety video's when the public would probably enjoy you guys bring back some of the classics like the safety in paradise one or the body paint one ?

I’m not putting body paint on for anyone!!! That was the last guy in charge!

Engineers too greedy last year with their demands, outsource more engineering overseas to beat greedy unions ?

I agree sack all the engineers that will fix it!!! Some are due to leave in the next few years anyway, Let’s pay them a year’s salary to leave tomorrow so they can go to the beach and drink beer!
We have only done that heaps of time’s before, only to re-employee them later… we love paying staff a year’s wages to only re-employee them again… ( We never seem to learn that one) I know one guy who’s done that about 4 times!!!!

No offense Christopher just couldn't resist !!!!

An no Beagle I am not upset at your comments!!! you need a laugh in this hot weather....

[winner69]

@stevebiddle
The @flyairnz on time performance at present truly is abysmal. Needs to be the core focus of the airline this year.

And a few minutes later

@stevebiddle
More delays.. More broken planes.. The joys of flying @flyairnz

[Beagle]

Yes Benny1 we need all the humour we can get with the SP of this where it is. Have a good weekend...but maybe skip hiring the architect for a refurb of the house...you never know what might happen do you...

[Beagle]

Nearly there.

You getting ready to do a Couta1 ?

[couta1]

You getting ready to do a Couta1 ? Only if its goes below fair value by a margin, too risky as an XOS divvy strip play currently.

[Benny1]

Yes Benny1 we need all the humour we can get with the SP of this where it is. Have a good weekend...but maybe skip hiring the architect for a refurb of the house...you never know what might happen do you...
Have to say I have no idea what you are on about???
Got to admit it was a little amusing....

[Beagle]

Only if its goes below fair value by a margin, too risky as an XOS divvy strip play currently.

$2.50 cum an 11 cent divvy would definitely get me standing to attention https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-photo-exterior-standing-beagle-green-grass-background-image48370953

[oldtech]

I agree sack all the engineers that will fix it!!! Some are due to leave in the next few years anyway, Let’s pay them a year’s salary to leave tomorrow so they can go to the beach and drink beer!
We have only done that heaps of time’s before, only to re-employee them later… we love paying staff a year’s wages to only re-employee them again… ( We never seem to learn that one) I know one guy who’s done that about 4 times!!!!

AIR is certainly not the only company guilty of that ... SPK is getting quite good at it too ...

[Benny1]

AIR is certainly not the only company guilty of that ... SPK is getting quite good at it too ...
Said that bit a little tongue in cheek but do realise it is well and truly an option the company may take up.
The axe has been hanging for a couple of years now particularly in certain areas of engineering, yes well and truly before the last negotiations.
Still won't stop the big I told you so's on here.

[iceman]

Benni1 or anyone else, do any of you know where exactly AIR is at with the RR repairs and when the Dreamliners may be back in normal and full schedule service, rather than running leased or much more inefficient planes than planned !

[Benny1]

Benni1 or anyone else, do any of you know where exactly AIR is at with the RR repairs and when the Dreamliners may be back in normal and full schedule service, rather than running leased or much more inefficient planes than planned !

Nope no idea how long this will drag on for..
It will be for quite a while yet.
This is not something that will be resolved this year...
As far as the leased planes go... This is a very fluid situation.. I would most likely expect the EVA 777-300 would be the first to go.. The lease would be quite a lot more than for the other two.
This will all of course depend on the extent of the apparent softening in tourist demand.. The schedule may reduce to a point that the airline can manage with just their own fleet allowing for a few 787's being parked up at any one time.. 4 out of service at the moment .. however some engine's will be available over the next few weeks... Again not sure how many aircraft will actually get back flying.. possibly a couple.
Sorry probably doesn't help too much!

[iceman]

Thanks Benny1. Yes this was good info. Pleased I sold out when these issues hit and based on your answer re RR issues, no need at all to rush back in for me. Just all too uncertain and risky for me to invest in an airline with such issues hanging over them.

[Beagle]

Nope no idea how long this will drag on for..
It will be for quite a while yet.
This is not something that will be resolved this year...
As far as the leased planes go... This is a very fluid situation.. I would most likely expect the EVA 777-300 would be the first to go.. The lease would be quite a lot more than for the other two.
This will all of course depend on the extent of the apparent softening in tourist demand.. The schedule may reduce to a point that the airline can manage with just their own fleet allowing for a few 787's being parked up at any one time.. 4 out of service at the moment .. however some engine's will be available over the next few weeks... Again not sure how many aircraft will actually get back flying.. possibly a couple.
Sorry probably doesn't help too much!

I have my serious hat on today. I don't understand from as legal point of view why AIR are not climbing into RR over the obvious impact on the airline with this engine issue.
RR have a market cap of 17 Billions pounds https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/share-price.aspx so I don't accept a fully litigious approach would have any catastrophic effect on RR.

I'm going to be all over this issue at the next annual meeting and won't take the usual "commercial confidentiality" response without some serious barking. I can't see why AIR don't have a strong actionable case against RR and I think the losses the airline are experiencing because of this issue may be recoverable once this fiasco is sorted.

I am watching the share price decline closely on the basis that at some point I think this becomes a BUY especially if one looks through their current issues and values the company on a DCF basis. I was surprised by Friday's fall but that may not be the end of it. Fortunately I have a fairly modest position at present but I am looking to acquire a good meaningful stake at the right time.

Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...

[Marilyn Munroe]

Benni1 or anyone else, do any of you know where exactly AIR is at with the RR repairs and when the Dreamliners may be back in normal and full schedule service, rather than running leased or much more inefficient planes than planned !

Some guy on the internet claimed Rather Rocky Motors had received certification from the FAA and its European counterpart for a redesigned impeller blade. I would imagine these are being manufactured quickly for installation in affected engines. This replacement would require an engine removal and tear-down.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[freddagg]

Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...

Its an Opel/Vauxhall - what were you thinking.

[winner69]

A job for you Beagle ...will be extremely well paid

[Beagle]

A job for you Beagle ...will be extremely well paid

Trust me on this, you do not want to see the Beagle in body paint lol
freddagg - I'm thinking its a crying shame Ford have stopped production in Australia

[Benny1]

I have my serious hat on today. I don't understand from as legal point of view why AIR are not climbing into RR over the obvious impact on the airline with this engine issue.
RR have a market cap of 17 Billions pounds https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/share-price.aspx so I don't accept a fully litigious approach would have any catastrophic effect on RR.

I'm going to be all over this issue at the next annual meeting and won't take the usual "commercial confidentiality" response without some serious barking. I can't see why AIR don't have a strong actionable case against RR and I think the losses the airline are experiencing because of this issue may be recoverable once this fiasco is sorted.

I am watching the share price decline closely on the basis that at some point I think this becomes a BUY especially if one looks through their current issues and values the company on a DCF basis. I was surprised by Friday's fall but that may not be the end of it. Fortunately I have a fairly modest position at present but I am looking to acquire a good meaningful stake at the right time.

Speaking of engine issues I have my own and it really rocks your confidence. Brand new ZB Commodore Calais V delivered just before Christmas. Engine seized 20 days and 850 km's later. Unlike AIR I don't take these sort of issues lying down but then again there are more than two engine manufacturers so that makes it easier...

As far as I am aware in the past a lot of the compensation offered by the likes of Rolls Royce and other component manufactures comes in the offer of discounts on future purchases.
That is why I would not at all be surprised to see Rolls Royce engines on future aircraft ordered, this artifice sums that up for me:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12176487

When words such as compartmentalise get used that says to me we are still friends with Rolls and look forward to doing business with them again soon.....That's just my take on it!

However we will not know probably for a couple of months what the decision is for the new aircraft...although thinking about it..announcing an order for shiny new jets may take some of the sting out of the half your results due out soon??

[winner69]

That $340m npbt guidance pretty bad

Just imagine what it would have been if the price of fuel had stayed up $100

If so $2 would be cheap.....Chris and his team have fingers crossed that the price of fuel stays low

[Raz]

Raz, can you expound on that argument please. I have a theory too about premium pricing but I would be interested to hear yours.

If you are looking at economy, especially Asia and Europe...the price premium is materially against AIR compared to first tier airlines.. most of the year.

Air's Business class product is also out of date compared to other first tier airlines yet generally costs more. Also no first class means they do miss out on some high yield passengers that are going to others.

Price driven customers - they are not in the running, since the jet fuel price bump last year they were not competitive on price even when specials were launched.

As an aside smart people driven by price can get cheaper Air product on code share specials internationally as well..

Product, already mentioned for business class is also a problem for economy - tight seats on planes plus lower service levels on flights have weakened the overall experience on international flights.

Why its so different to the professional and warm nature of service domestically has been a puzzle for a while. Koru lounges are well documented. Scheduling of flights has been compromised since the network has been placed under pressure since the RR issues started. Delays have become more common.

On balance the experience has deteriorated to the point it is inferior to a number of others and also similar to some lower priced carriers.

I get the feeling given they are the national airline they believe customers will be sticky given the brand. Even Disney discovered this would only hold to a certain point and are noticing attendance decline. However in the airline business sales at the margin can determine profitability.

[Beagle]

That $340m npbt guidance pretty bad

Just imagine what it would have been if the price of fuel had stayed up $100

If so $2 would be cheap.....Chris and his team have fingers crossed that the price of fuel stays low

$340m will make for a sad and even more disappointed Beagle. Hopefully a bit further up the guidance range. I hope AIR stop barking about their good relationship with RR and start showing some teeth and use them ! RR deserve some really serious pain over their shonky engines.

[Scrunch]

$340m will make for a sad and even more disappointed Beagle. Hopefully a bit further up the guidance range. I hope AIR stop barking about their good relationship with RR and start showing some teeth and use them ! RR deserve some really serious pain over their shonky engines.

RR do, but is this strategically the best option for an airline operating in a limited supply market. To avoid a mismash of engines, you ideally want to be with one supplier. If you go all legalistic with this supplier, will you get the best deal in the future. If you go legalistic, will you be at the front or end of the cue if you need additional engines or specialist assistance in the future? If you develop a reputation for being legalistic, will this assist or hinder your negotiating position should you decide in the future to change primary suppliers?

Will going legalistic even get you more compensation for the issues?

On balance its a bit like when your partner does something stupid - you want to get mad but often it isn't the best option.

[Benny1]

A mismash of engines is not a big deal... Sometimes an aircraft will only come with one choice of engine ( think the 777-300er).
Engines a normally sold these days with a total care package so the maintenance specs and overhauls are carried out by the manufacturer...
Only limited engine work is now carried out in-house.
You are right in not pi$$ing off the suppliers as you will be back at the table with them sooner of later wanting a discount on your new engine purchases.. Pi$$ them off and good luck to you...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12201768

CEO of Virgin is going after 8 years and earning top money while having more than one third of the Australian market the airline has struggled really badly while Qantas has gone from strength to strength.
Luxon was right to get out of Virgin and challenge the board that this guy is a liability in more ways than one. Virgin's load factor on the Tasman since the acrimonious split with AIR late last year is pretty interesting.

[Marilyn Munroe]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12201768

CEO of Virgin is going after 8 years and earning top money while having more than one third of the Australian market the airline has struggled really badly while Qantas has gone from strength to strength.
Luxon was right to get out of Virgin and challenge the board that this guy is a liability in more ways than one. Virgin's load factor on the Tasman since the acrimonious split with AIR late last year is pretty interesting.

If cullen Airlines wanted and could get an agreement on stratergy from Lee Kuan Yew Airlines it could buy back in to Virgin(Under arm bowlers division) at a good discount.

Etihad need the cash and I'm pretty certain the China based holders are ruefully contemplating the balance between the ying and the yang of their buy in.

However Cullen Airlines should be mindfull of the Kiwi dollars previously squandered trying to follow the yellow brick road of investment in Aussie aviation.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

If cullen Airlines wanted and could get an agreement on stratergy from Lee Kuan Yew Airlines it could buy back in to Virgin(Under arm bowlers division) at a good discount.

Etihad need the cash and I'm pretty certain the China based holders are ruefully contemplating the balance between the ying and the yang of their buy in.

However Cullen Airlines should be mindfull of the Kiwi dollars previously squandered trying to follow the yellow brick road of investment in Aussie aviation.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I listened into their last call and they're not interested in going there again...

[777]

Marilyn regularly puts this up. Have never worked out why.

[Snow Leopard]

So nothing special about Air New Zealand - they can be as bad as any other airline as frequently as any other airline:

Air NZ flight debacle traps passengers on Christchurch tarmac in 5-hour flight 'shambles' (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202299)

[winner69]

So nothing special about Air New Zealand - they can be as bad as any other airline as frequently as any other airline:

Air NZ flight debacle traps passengers on Christchurch tarmac in 5-hour flight 'shambles' (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202299)

“I would expect better from such a lauded airline," she said

[Beagle]

So nothing special about Air New Zealand - they can be as bad as any other airline as frequently as any other airline:

Air NZ flight debacle traps passengers on Christchurch tarmac in 5-hour flight 'shambles' (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202299)

My understanding talking to a broker that fly's into Queenstown on a very regular basis, (everyone knows this airport is surrounded by mountains and flights are subject to satisfactory weather) is that standard procedure as the alternate airport is Dunedin and passengers are transferred by bus to Queenstown. This happens quite often when bad weather prevents landing at Queenstown.
Now I would speculate that due to the time of year, (peak tourist season for bus use) buses may not have been available on the day.

The international gate thing at Chch airport, I don't know why., maybe all the domestic gates were in use ?

Now lets get on to the accommodation side of things.
They put all the passengers up in reasonable accommodation. This would have happened at both ends as pax scheduled to depart on the returning flight couldn't have as it didn't land.

JetStar's approach and this is a very important difference, in these circumstances is to give people a $150 accommodation voucher. It is a well known fact that you simply cannot get accommodation of a reasonable standard in Queenstown in the peak summer period for anything remotely like that so the people scheduled to fly the return leg if that flight had of landed would have been really stuck if they were on JetStar and its also very difficult to find reasonable Auckland accommodation for $150 per night.

Oh just one other thing...passengers stranded on a JetStar A320 would have had to endure 5 hours seated in seats with the world's tightest 29 inch pitch. That would be excruciatingly painful and uncomfortable for this big dog and I would imagine for most passengers.

I am not trying to pretend that AIR get it right every time but most times I think they try harder than Jetheap and most other budget airlines. Remember when mother paper tiger told her cubs you get what you pay for ?...guess what, she is right !

[winner69]

Seems rather odd ....wheels falling off at AIR?

Hundman, an assistant professor at NYU's Shanghai campus, told the Herald the flight took off from Auckland as scheduled close to midnight last night but "midway through our flight, the pilot informs us that Chinese authorities had not given this plane permission to land, so we needed to turn around. A permitting issue, supposedly," he says.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202409

[iceman]

Seems rather odd ....wheels falling off at AIR?

Hundman, an assistant professor at NYU's Shanghai campus, told the Herald the flight took off from Auckland as scheduled close to midnight last night but "midway through our flight, the pilot informs us that Chinese authorities had not given this plane permission to land, so we needed to turn around. A permitting issue, supposedly," he says.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202409

This is bad and would annoy a lot of passengers. Spending what, 10 hours in the AIR to fly from Auckland to Auckland !?!?

[winner69]

Maybe its all political and Jacinda needs to talk to her Chinese contacts.

If operational issue like not filing forms well nuff said

[Snow Leopard]

So nothing special about Air New Zealand - they can be as bad as any other airline as frequently as any other airline:

Air NZ flight debacle traps passengers on Christchurch tarmac in 5-hour flight 'shambles' (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202299)


Seems rather odd ....wheels falling off at AIR?

Hundman, an assistant professor at NYU's Shanghai campus, told the Herald the flight took off from Auckland as scheduled close to midnight last night but "midway through our flight, the pilot informs us that Chinese authorities had not given this plane permission to land, so we needed to turn around. A permitting issue, supposedly," he says.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202409

Apparently more frequently than any other airline then...

[Beagle]

Very bad week for AIR with 2 out of approx. 2,000 flights proving to have inconvenienced passengers. OMG the wheels are falling off and the sky is falling in lol Obviously a slow week in the N.Z.media with more meaningful news. I guess Australian media don't bother reporting JetStar's and Virgin's fiasco's because the public get bored with reading about the same repetitive thing day in and day out... every day and that's before we even start talking about the truly woeful reliability of Tiger airlines...just look at the shockingly low respect the travelling public have for them https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/tiger-airways :p

[Snow Leopard]

To change the subject entirely is anyone else thinking "Pavlov's Dog" ?

[macduffy]

To change the subject entirely is anyone else thinking "Pavlov's Dog" ?

You'll need to explain further, SL. eg, whose reflex action in response to what?

[winner69]

To change the subject entirely is anyone else thinking "Pavlov's Dog" ?

Beagle associates Holden with excellence

[Blue Skies]

Very bad week for AIR with 2 out of approx. 2,000 flights proving to have inconvenienced passengers. OMG the wheels are falling off and the sky is falling in lol Obviously a slow week in the N.Z.media with more meaningful news. I guess Australian media don't bother reporting JetStar's and Virgin's fiasco's because the public get bored with reading about the same repetitive thing day in and day out... every day and that's before we even start talking about the truly woeful reliability of Tiger airlines...just look at the shockingly low respect the travelling public have for them https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/tiger-airways :p

Couldn't agree more with your sentiments. Easy headline click bait material for the Herald, lets bash the national carrier, any outrage will do, esp when there's little other news. From other passengers sounds as though nobody was 'losing their minds' & the captain & cabin crew were highly communicative & did everything they could to make people comfortable in a difficult situation which was no fault of the airline. Do people really expect airlines to compensate all the passengers for lost work, taxis etc when a situation arises where the airline has to put safety first. Sometimes I think our social welfare system is producing such a sense of entitlement in this country. It's an airline for Gods sake, not the Dept of Social Welfare! Apologies in advance for my little rant, but compared to experiences I've had on American let alone other airlines (& don't even get me started on never again Jetstar) Air NZ did a good job looking after those pax.

[Beagle]

Beagle associates Holden with excellence

They're right up there with Rolls Royce lol

[Benny1]

They're right up there with Rolls Royce lol
Just one thing to note Rodger... AIRs new A321's also have 29" seat pitch for some of the economy rows... Pitch varies between 33"-29"

[winner69]

Just one thing to note Rodger... AIRs new A321's also have 29" seat pitch for some of the economy rows... Pitch varies between 33"-29"

Probably made them narrower as well?

[Beagle]

Just one thing to note Rodger... AIRs new A321's also have 29" seat pitch for some of the economy rows... Pitch varies between 33"-29"

Variable pitch in the A320's too. Pays to ante up another $10 for a better window seat with better pitch in my opinion, ($15 extra on an ancient Jetheap A320)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202787
Hmmmm... I would hope that whoever is in charge of obtaining the necessary approval faces very serious disciplinary action over this. Cost of this aborted flight must surely run into a six figure sum.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202787
Hmmmm... I would hope that whoever is in charge of obtaining the necessary approval faces very serious disciplinary action over this. Cost of this aborted flight must surely run into a six figure sum.

Prob just a dont do that again talking to ......and probably will still get next year’s bonus

[westerly]

Prob just a dont do that again talking to ......and probably will still get next year’s bonus

Could just be China making a point.

westerly

[Raz]

Could just be China making a point.

westerly\

This...

[Benny1]

From my understanding it was a code 2 787 used for that particular flight.
Code 2 787's we're not originally intended to be flown to PVG so I assume the Chinese approvals for those particular aircraft in the fleet weren't applied for.
So sounds like a scheduling cock up...
Shouldn't happen... However with the on going 787 engine issues the airline is still under pressure to keep the schedule on track..
Maybe that was the only aircraft available and the Chinese approval was overlooked? That's just my speculation.. However like I said... Shouldn't have happened...

[777]

\

This...

I don't think so. Wishful thinking though by some. Including Richard Harman speculating on his website Politik.

( No doubt you are Ruz on the Stuff site)

[Raz]

I don't think so. Wishful thinking though by some. Including Richard Harman speculating on his website Politik.

( No doubt you are Ruz on the Stuff site)

No I'm not on the stuff web site, just given the Huawei - five eyes situation has caused a number of administrative hard lines from China on New Zealand of late. It would have to be a major over site otherwise.

And today..the latest double speak...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110525974/air-nz-plane-forced-to-turn-around-after-airline-forgot-to-remove-reference-to-taiwan

and again today...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110523356/chinese-refusal-to-send-ministers-to-new-zealand-could-be-reason-for-tourism-snub


The airline has accepted full responsibility for the administrative error", but a slightly conflicting statement at the outset appeared to suggest the plane did not take off before Chinese authorities had in fact, approved the flight plan.

time to wise up...

[777]

As I said, wishful thinking by some. Sounds like that includes yourself.

[Raz]

As I said, wishful thinking by some. Sounds like that includes yourself.

No rational again behind your comments, perhaps if you were international trade you would see it...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202902 I find this more than a little interesting in the context of the Chinese turnaround incident. Public knowledge that the airline is majority owned by the Govt. Looks like any excuse for them to give Kiwi's "the bird" at present is a good one.
(This post was made from a source free of Huawei interference).

[Joshuatree]

We need to stand up against Chinas soft invasion, no doubt about that. Taiwan is between rock and a hard place though, soon to be taken back by force , this year maybe.Just one more big uncertainty cloud on the Investment horizon.

[Beagle]

We need to stand up against Chinas soft invasion, no doubt about that. Taiwan is between rock and a hard place though, soon to be taken back by force , this year maybe.Just one more big uncertainty cloud on the Investment horizon.

Hmmmm https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/revealed-the-real-reason-a-plane-packed-with-270-passengers-was-forced-to-turn-back-after-china-denied-the-aircraft-permission-to-land/ar-BBTsTTh?ocid=spartandhp

[macduffy]

Hmmmm https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/revealed-the-real-reason-a-plane-packed-with-270-passengers-was-forced-to-turn-back-after-china-denied-the-aircraft-permission-to-land/ar-BBTsTTh?ocid=spartandhp

If that's the case then AIR has been extremely careless. The reality of China's attitude to Taiwan's status is just that - a reality!

[Beagle]

If that's the case then AIR has been extremely careless. The reality of China's attitude to Taiwan's status is just that - a reality!

Mischief reef very aptly named in my opinion https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/china-slams-us-for-undermining-peace-and-security/ar-BBTsV6e?ocid=spartandhp

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12203580

Cheap as chips. Suppose that's on the wonderful "nightmare-liner"

[Sideshow Bob]

You can all relax now - Julian and the latest safety video have gone.

Back to this one on my flight this morning...… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnlEVLyD1s

[Beagle]

You can all relax now - Julian and the latest safety video have gone.

Back to this one on my flight this morning...… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnlEVLyD1s

Good mix of cultures, races and gender in there as well as some well known personalities. Be very hard for anyone to be offended by that other than me. I take exception because the dog they used was ugly...should have gone to spec savers and used a Beagle :)

[Raz]

Good mix of cultures, races and gender in there as well as some well known personalities. Be very hard for anyone to be offended by that other than me. I take exception because the dog they used was ugly...should have gone to spec savers and used a Beagle :)

Thats not very PC about the dog now is it....

[winner69]

Good mix of cultures, races and gender in there as well as some well known personalities. Be very hard for anyone to be offended by that other than me. I take exception because the dog they used was ugly...should have gone to spec savers and used a Beagle :)

Mike and Kate are in it so it must be good

[ziptie]

You can all relax now - Julian and the latest safety video have gone.

Back to this one on my flight this morning...… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnlEVLyD1s

Thank god Flying back home again Friday and was nervous I would have to have another flight where I would have absolutely no idea of what to do in an emergency, (Joking not joking) so happy that abysmal excuse for a video is now gone, Maybe the Shareprice will increase now ?

[QOH]

Mike and Kate are in it so it must be good

Would be even better if they could eject Mike and Kate mid flight.

[GR8DAY]

Pretty pathetic ad in my opinion (starts with some of our stunning scenery only to be snuffed out with poor content and acting) .........Sea Legs are probably the only winner with that one.

[macduffy]

Another "administrative" foulup.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12205676

[BlackPeter]

Another "administrative" foulup.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12205676

Funny they choose this route anyway. Iran is not on any of their normal routes I am aware of and easy to avoid if you want to go from Europe to NZ. As well - most airlines heading from Europe towards SE Asia are passing this area towards the North or they go much more south-wards.

Probably somebody responsible to determine the route who is not familiar with global politics ...

[Robomo]

Funny they choose this route anyway. Iran is not on any of their normal routes I am aware of and easy to avoid if you want to go from Europe to NZ. As well - most airlines heading from Europe towards SE Asia are passing this area towards the North or they go much more south-wards.

Probably somebody responsible to determine the route who is not familiar with global politics ...

Black Peter (who is always learning).

Overflying Iran from Asia to Europe is the most popular route for airlines, generally the quickest and safest for most routes. Air NZ only flys to Europe via USA but the relatively limited range of the A321 means that the Asia route is more convenient. However, Iran closes down on Fridays so business is usually only done Sat-Thurs, so that might have been a factor as well.
If you want avoid Iran try overflying Syria, Aghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Iraq and see what the cost and safety factors are. You can't overfly Israel so forget that.
Have a look at https://ops.group/blog/tag/overflight/ and you will see why problems can easily arise trying to route aircraft on unfamiliar routes.

[BlackPeter]

Black Peter (who is always learning).

Overflying Iran from Asia to Europe is the most popular route for airlines, generally the quickest and safest for most routes. Air NZ only flys to Europe via USA but the relatively limited range of the A321 means that the Asia route is more convenient. However, Iran closes down on Fridays so business is usually only done Sat-Thurs, so that might have been a factor as well.
If you want avoid Iran try overflying Syria, Aghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Iraq and see what the cost and safety factors are. You can't overfly Israel so forget that.
Have a look at https://ops.group/blog/tag/overflight/ and you will see why problems can easily arise trying to route aircraft on unfamiliar routes.

Well, looks like the convenience of not flying West did pay out for them - didn't it? As well - given this was a one off - what would have been wrong with Egypt - Saudi Arabia? Anyway - it happened, and maybe they learn at some stage to check before take off whether they have all required permits and the paperwork done. Can't be that hard if you are running an airline.

[winner69]

At least the AIR delivery crew weren’t as bored as this pilot in Oz

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/pilot-bored-test-flight-training-australia-adelaide-parafield-airfield-a8787641.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1550670668

[dobby41]

Well, looks like the convenience of not flying West did pay out for them - didn't it? As well - given this was a one off - what would have been wrong with Egypt - Saudi Arabia? Anyway - it happened, and maybe they learn at some stage to check before take off whether they have all required permits and the paperwork done. Can't be that hard if you are running an airline.

They knew before takeoff that they didn't have permission for Iran - yet.
It was a risk move and the lost - it wasn't a mistake per se.

[winner69]

Interesting article re Qantas fuel costs ..probably applies to AIR

Whatever a bit of education

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/in-it-for-the-ultra-long-haul-qantas-ambitious-plan-could-backfire-20190222-p50zhr.html

[Beagle]

Interesting article re Qantas fuel costs ..probably applies to AIR

Whatever a bit of education

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/in-it-for-the-ultra-long-haul-qantas-ambitious-plan-could-backfire-20190222-p50zhr.html

Interesting...this carrying extra fuel so you can burn more fuel in the same trip...bit like a dog chasing its tail. Pity all the folks down the back on these ultra long range flights in DVT class :eek2:

[iceman]

Emirates confirms an order for 40 x A330-900 and 30 x A350-900, all with Rolls Royce engines, Trent 7000 for the A330 and Trent XWB for the A350. Faith in RR obviously still there despite the recent debacles

[thestg]

5,822,868 Shares traded on Friday. Biggest 1 day volume since 21 June 2017. Hopefully recovery is on the way.

[value_investor]

I expect a result in the lower end of the range and perhaps a dividend cut while we maneuver through this engine issue. Interesting to see what they say on the forward bookings considering that passenger growth is not where it should be.

We went through a small goldilocks period there of impressive tourist numbers as well as really cheap oil and I think this is more a reversion to the mean.

[stoploss]

I expect a result in the lower end of the range and perhaps a dividend cut while we maneuver through this engine issue. Interesting to see what they say on the forward bookings considering that passenger growth is not where it should be.

We went through a small goldilocks period there of impressive tourist numbers as well as really cheap oil and I think this is more a reversion to the mean.

looks like they might be trying to stimulate forward bookings .....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110843124/air-nz-to-slash-entry-level-airfares-by-up-to-half-on-up-40-domestic-routes

[RTM]

Quite a bit of chat on Duncan Garners show about big reductions - 50% - coming on domestic airfares to regions. Jacinda seemed to be well in the loop as well in a subsequent interview........

[winner69]

Quite a bit of chat on Duncan Garners show about big reductions - 50% - coming on domestic airfares to regions. Jacinda seemed to be well in the loop as well in a subsequent interview........

Sounds like ALL regional fares to be slashed by 50% ....a game changer

I think excitement has got the better of Garner et al

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2019/02/duncan-garner-air-nz-to-slash-ticket-prices-to-the-regions.html

[Raz]

Sounds like ALL regional fares to be slashed by 50% ....a game changer

I think excitement has got the better of Garner et al

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2019/02/duncan-garner-air-nz-to-slash-ticket-prices-to-the-regions.html

Only real change if Government has influence behind this. Not great for the minority shareholders if the case. This current AIR management, if allowed their own way, it will be more like smoke and mirrors resulting in a marketing pitch at best.

[RTM]

Only real change if Government has influence behind this. Not great for the minority shareholders if the case. This current AIR management, if allowed their own way, it will be more like smoke and mirrors resulting in a marketing pitch at best.

As I said....Jacinda seemed to be well in the loop on the changes. Even tho it is a publicly owned company. She would have been better to have “not known”. IMO.

[RTM]

As I said....Jacinda seemed to be well in the loop on the changes. Even tho it is a publicly owned company. She would have been better to have “not known”. IMO.

And if it is correct that the government, thru their share holding in AIR have bought pressure on domestic fares...then I wonder what happens when they turn their attention to power prices ?
Could this happen ?

[Beagle]

And if it is correct that the government, thru their share holding in AIR have bought pressure on domestic fares...then I wonder what happens when they turn their attention to power prices ?
Could this happen ?

Govt have come out this morning said they have nothing to do with this. Electricity review has already reached conclusions that doesn't support any fear of your latter suggestion.
I'm with Raz that this is mostly a marketing stunt. I will be looking for signs from Chris Luxon at the annual result that they are taking the relentless cost creep this company faces seriously and taking the appropriate actions. Very sad that a few years ago QAN and AIR share prices were the same and now QAN is more than double. They're doing some things that AIR clearly are not.

[RTM]

Govt have come out this morning said they have nothing to do with this. Electricity review has already reached conclusions that doesn't support any fear of your latter suggestion.
I'm with Raz that this is mostly a marketing stunt. I will be looking for signs from Chris Luxon at the annual result that they are taking the relentless cost creep this company faces seriously and taking the appropriate actions. Very sad that a few years ago QAN and AIR share prices were the same and now QAN is more than double. They're doing some things that AIR clearly are not.

I suppose they would. I think we would be naive to think that they have not had some input. No matter what they say.
https://youtu.be/WuJQD-wTvUA

[Beagle]

I suppose they would. I think we would be naive to think that they have not had some input. No matter what they say.
https://youtu.be/WuJQD-wTvUA

Normally I'd agree with you mate but I think bulldog Jones has been too busy running multiple lolly scrambles throughout the country to bother.

[dobby41]

I suppose they would. I think we would be naive to think that they have not had some input. No matter what they say.
https://youtu.be/WuJQD-wTvUA

No doubt people will think what they want to think - depends on their conspiracy setting.

[Jay]

At least in part will be trying to fill otherwise empty seats I would have thought, so not necessarily losing money as such.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/331125/295736.pdf
Looking at operating stat's for January and year to date load factors and RPK's you'd be forgiven for wondering why AIR cut their forecast so much :confused:

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/331125/295736.pdf
Looking at operating stat's for January and year to date load factors and RPK's you'd be forgiven for wondering why AIR cut their forecast so much :confused:

Short haul not that strong ...or as strong as previous months

[Beagle]

Short haul not that strong ...or as strong as previous months

Must be time to bait a few people with a few cheap domestic fares :)

[mikeybycrikey]

That yield looks pretty worrying. 0% growth in short haul RASK, while there was growth in load factor and with the announcement of the cheapest fares dropping.

Could be in for a wild ride.

[Raz]

Must be time to bait a few people with a few cheap domestic fares :)


Good just looks like some good vibe marketing:)

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7ba723ec/air-nz-looks-to-jump-start-domestic-passenger-growth-by-cutting-fares.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20looks%20to%20jump-start%20domestic%20passenger%20growth%20by%20cutti ng%20fares&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20looks%20to%20jump-start%20domestic%20passenger%20growth%20by%20cutti ng%20fares+CID_452e48c5e58e5a23ca02284d15af09ce&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle7ba723ecair-nz-looks-to-jump-start-domestic-passenger-growth-by-cutting-fareshtml

[Jaa]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/331125/295736.pdf
Looking at operating stat's for January and year to date load factors and RPK's you'd be forgiven for wondering why AIR cut their forecast so much :confused:

Looked ok to me too.

Domestic which is the profit centre is stagnating (already been addressed by this sale) but they seem to be winning the war on the Tasman which should compensate. Anyone seen Qantas or Virgin's Tasman stats?

[value_investor]

Interesting that Auckland Airport's latest passenger growth shows a very anemic gain of only 2.4% and the domestic is worse at 2.0%. The tourism boom that we've experienced is set to end now and I think the move in prices down domestically might just be to stop the bleeding now.

Better off to break even or eek out small profits on those certain flights by selling them cheap than taking the hit..

[Beagle]

Facts
Average load factor for the year to date 83.5% v 82.5% last year.
Year to date revenue per available seat kilometer up 2.1%.
Response
Oh my goodness the world is ending, tourism as we know it is over, the sky is falling and the end of the airline is nigh... (sarcasm intended).

[winner69]

Some already know this stuff but I found this interesting ...like 56 pricing combinations on some flights

https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/airline/air-nz-cuts-entry-level-domestic-airfares/

[iceman]

Star Alliance partner Air Canada enters the market with direct flights Vancouver-Auckland during our summer months https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12208003

[bull....]

heading lower i reckon over time , new price war will impact results going forward as well as slowing demand

[johndoe123]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331245

Dividend remaining at $0.11

[Lola]

heading lower i reckon over time , new price war will impact results going forward as well as slowing demand

Not to mention Jetstar here serving the provincial so well thus far. They are innovative, polite, and honest. Not arrogant or dodgy. Always travel them when I can. Hoepfully they will start flying out of ChCh too soon.

[Beagle]

Not to mention Jetstar here serving the provincial so well thus far. They are innovative, polite, and honest. Not arrogant or dodgy. Always travel them when I can. Hoepfully they will start flying out of ChCh too soon.

I think you should disclose that you work for JetStar as chief of public relations :lol: Thank you for the humour, I could not disagree more.

[Lola]

I think you should disclose that you work for JetStar as chief of public relations :lol: Thank you for the humour, I could not disagree more.


Only a happy customer and always pleased to stick up for them. No one else seems to , especially the media which never misses an opportunty to put the boot in. But doing the same to AIR NZ, no never, they are untouchable.

Oh , I should add..Jetstar are always accommodating too, not just innovative, polite and honest.

[Beagle]

Only a happy customer and always pleased to stick up for them. No one else seems to , especially the media which never misses an opportunty to put the boot in. But doing the same to AIR NZ, no never, they are untouchable.

Oh , I should add..Jetstar are always accommodating too, not just innovative, polite and honest.
Are you for real ? We have had numerous articles in the herald recently putting the boot into AIR. Please go back a few pages through this thread and you will see many of them with references with a link. Enough propaganda about Jetstar already.
Happy to post my thoughts on the AIR result after listening in to the webcast.

[Sideshow Bob]

Only a happy customer and always pleased to stick up for them. No one else seems to , especially the media which never misses an opportunty to put the boot in. But doing the same to AIR NZ, no never, they are untouchable.

Oh , I should add..Jetstar are always accommodating too, not just innovative, polite and honest.

Hahaha you must work for JetStar Lola. I think airline rankings and public surveys etc would be the opposite to your thoughts.

I'm completely with Beagle on Air NZ - media put the boot into them when they can, especially when something goes pear-shaped (although sometimes I think the travelling public expect too much)

[100101]

Are you for real ? We have had numerous articles in the herald recently putting the boot into AIR. Please go back a few pages through this thread and you will see many of them with references with a link. Enough propaganda about Jetstar already.
Happy to post my thoughts on the AIR result after listening in to the webcast.

We tried Jetstar for the first time a couple of years back - Welly to Gold Coast for $300 to $340 return on special, with no airport parking. Mostly travel Jetstar now and while seating may be a bit cramped in cattle class, its probably the same as all airlines.

But AirNZ by paying a fully imputed $0.11 full imputed divi has clearly held of the major fall in price until record day. They do state clearly that it reflects the previous period.

[Beagle]

JetStar has the tightest pitch of any airline. Their service is absolute rubbish. Their spare parts, staff and engineering backup is poor and leads to numerous last minute flight cancellations.
Their treatment of passengers is extremely poor. They are on my permanent banned list.

[Onion]

I'm not currently an AIR shareholder so I'm allowed to speak honestly here :).

Our family uses both Air NZ and Jetstar within NZ. Mostly between Chch and Wellington and between Wellington and Auckland. Our experience is that Jetstar has been at least as reliable as Air NZ. The only major delays we have experienced the last few years was on an Air NZ flight.

Regarding service and seats -- for those journeys it frankly doesn't matter. You aren't going to be properly fed and you are going to be squashed.

If I can save $100 on a leg by flying with Jetstar (or vice versa) then I don't care what logo is painted on the tail.

The exception is when returning on an Air NZ international flight -- then we try to have the connecting domestic flight on Air NZ too -- that way they become responsible for connection problems.

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Solid result in difficult operating environment.
Direct and indirect costs associated with RR engine issues to abate in 2H FY19 and significantly abate in FY20.
Management very confident on sustainability of the dividend and I note a 12% gross yield at $2.54.
Management not happy with the current level of profitability and working hard and confident about restoring same.
Up to 5 787's on the ground in first half just gone, abating down to 2 at present and expected just one by Sept 2019.
Significant efficiencies expected from fleet investment in A321 Neo's.
Capex very light in FY21 and FY22.
Operational review is making good progress.
Market share domestic has grown in the last year, (see my comment on JetStar's service level above)
Significant investment in customer lounges.
Disc: Holding for yield. Happy to add more on any irrational weakness. Expecting pretty solid profit growth in FY20 and stable divvies for FY20. Possible special divvy in FY21 or FY22.
DYOR.
PS, If some people are happy with JetStar's service that's fine for them but in my opinion all that's really relevant on an AIR thread to AIR investors is whether AIR's share of the domestic market is growing and what impact JetStar are having on domestic RASK for AIR (none).
For the convienience of pople who want to discuss JetStar's service I have created a special thread in the off market section here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11472-Jetstar-Good-bad-or-indifferent&p=749473#post749473
Can we get back on topic to discussing the financial performance and outlook for AIR now, seeing as they have just reported...
Some more well considered opinions on that wouldn't go amiss...

I think we're headed back to ~ 30 cps earnings next year which out the stock on a forward PE of 8.5 and a gross yield as mentioned above of 12%.
Pretty compelling metrics for a well managed company that's been going nearly 80 years.

[winner69]

Always love that chart on Slide 15 re H2 fuel costs sensitivity

Apparently jet fuel over US$80 .....if that’s the average for H2 earnings impact $20m odd

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/331245/295932.pdf

[Beagle]

Always love that chart on Slide 15 re H2 fuel costs sensitivity

Apparently jet fuel over US$80 .....if that’s the average for H2 earnings impact $20m odd

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/331245/295932.pdf

You've overlooked their hedging program mate. Management are confident around the mid point of forecast of $370m before tax and are not content with that, hence the ongoing comprehensive operational review.

[winner69]

You've overlooked their hedging program mate. Management are confident around the mid point of forecast of $370m before tax and are not content with that, hence the ongoing comprehensive operational review.

Says ‘inclusive of hedging’

Forecast fuel cost for H2 is $594m based on average of US$75 / barrel fuel (inclusive of hedging)

If it stays over US$80 add at least another $20m to that

That’s how I read that chart ....which I think is cool

[Beagle]

Says ‘inclusive of hedging’

Forecast fuel cost for H2 is $594m based on average of US$75 / barrel fuel (inclusive of hedging)

If it stays over US$80 add at least another $20m to that

That’s how I read that chart ....which I think is cool

Fair enough I can't cover everything at once mate. During the call they sounded confident around the mid point of the forecast and very confident about cost efficiencies going forward from there as direct and indirect costs around the RR engine issue fall away. I'm very much focused on (what I know we dislike but it is) normalised profitability for FY20 excluding non repeating RR impact. I see a very sound medium term case for investment on the basis of yield at around the current level.

[BlackPeter]

Fair enough I can't cover everything at once. During the call they sounded confident around the mid point of the forecast and very confident about cost efficiencies going forward from there as direct and indirect costs around the RR engine issue fall away.

I can now understand their confidence - RR Engine design has recently been moved to Germany! BREXIT directly helping Air NZ and other airlines suffering of poor British Engineering!

From the latest Wall Street Breakfast:


Brexit preparations... Boeing (NYSE:BA) is shifting spare parts between its distribution centers in the U.K. and across the globe, according to Ken Shaw, head of supply chain management. Earlier this month, Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) spent tens of millions of euros on stockpiling parts and securing IT systems. Brexit worries have also led Rolls-Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) to move the home for its best-known jet engine designs to Germany to avoid regulatory delays or sales disruptions.

[winner69]

I can now understand their confidence - RR Engine design has recently been moved to Germany! BREXIT directly helping Air NZ and other airlines suffering of poor British Engineering!

From the latest Wall Street Breakfast:

Bad news for one shareholder -Some German engines seize up after a few days

[BlackPeter]

Bad news for one shareholder -Some German engines seize up after a few days

Hmm - if you refer to beagles recent user experience: Are you sure his car had a German engine? I thought he was buying a Holden, which would be GM ...

[Beagle]

Hmm - if you refer to beagles recent user experience: Are you sure his car had a German engine? I thought he was buying a Holden, which would be GM ...

Yes it is made in Germany but has a GM engine installed that was probably assembled in a plant in Mexico (which would explain everything). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GM_High_Feature_engine

[winner69]

Hmm - if you refer to beagles recent user experience: Are you sure his car had a German engine? I thought he was buying a Holden, which would be GM ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holden_Commodore_(ZB)

[peat]

Can we get back on topic to discussing the financial performance and outlook for AIR now, seeing as they have just reported...
Some more well considered opinions on that wouldn't go amiss...

I think we're headed back to ~ 30 cps earnings next year which out the stock on a forward PE of 8.5 and a gross yield as mentioned above of 12%.
Pretty compelling metrics for a well managed company that's been going nearly 80 years.

Isn't this where we mention cyclical and coming down off a peak?
And longevity only via state support so not exactly a boasting point cf HLG.

I guess I'm just feeling conservative these days with stock selection and have a deep seated fear of airlines despite Warrens change of heart.
Those P+L's , whew they turn on the proverbial dime.

And yeh no Jetstar or Holden haha jk dont really care, topicality can be over rated.

[Beagle]

Isn't this where we mention cyclical and coming down off a peak?
And longevity only via state support so not exactly a boasting point cf HLG.

I guess I'm just feeling conservative these days with stock selection and have a deep seated fear of airlines despite Warrens change of heart.
Those P+L's , whew they turn on the proverbial dime.



Airlines not for everyone I agree but analysts don't see it the way you do and neither do I, (see earnings growth estimates for FY20 and FY21 coming off a cyclical low in FY19 :p base this year) https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Management extremely confident about their ability to pay the current level of 22 cps annual dividends going forward. 12% gross yield so dividends hounds will probably stop reading right here, that's all they need to know. They proudly noted during the call that AIR had only cut dividends twice in the last 15 years. Once for the GFC and the other for the Chch earthquakes.

[Snow Leopard]

I think you should disclose that you work for JetStar as chief of public relations :lol: Thank you for the humour, I could not disagree more.

Bit much coming from Luxon's Pet Poodle

So profit down and declining share price but pays a good dividend - much like TRA.

So applying the Beagle formula in it's generous PE * 8.5 that would value AIR at
$0.24 * 8.5 =
$2.04.

Luckily I did not use his PE * 7.5 version.

But seriously folks, OK result but I will wait for the $2.04 before buying.

[Arbroath]

Airlines not for everyone I agree but analysts don't see it the way you do and neither do I, (see earnings growth estimates for FY20 and FY21 coming off a cyclical low in FY19 :p base this year) https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Management extremely confident about their ability to pay the current level of 22 cps annual dividends going forward. 12% gross yield so dividends hounds will probably stop reading right here, that's all they need to know. They proudly noted during the call that AIR had only cut dividends twice in the last 15 years. Once for the GFC and the other for the Chch earthquakes.


I'm confident they'll maintain the 22cps because the operating CF is so strong. Don't forget that 2020-2022 they will likely have huge surplus cash flow as fleet replacement almost stops for 2 years before they have to deal with the 777-200's I think around late 2022/2023 (they said they'd tell us Q4 this year what their plans are). Unless things go very badly my hunch is 22cps ordinary for the next 3-4 years is more likely than not. Might even be a special or two in 2021-22 depending on industry conditions.

[dreamcatcher]

GS ...........latest Price Target $2.85 approx 15% (SP$2.49) upside maybe a dividend and appreciation hounds dream

[bull....]

lower bollinger in sharp decent now on the hourlies . suggests more downside to come

[workingdad]

no dividend will make up for the loss in equity on a falling SP, wont be knife catching this one and given how low the SP went when the outlook was a lot better on the last dip in the roller coaster who knows where this one will end up

[Beagle]

I'm confident they'll maintain the 22cps because the operating CF is so strong. Don't forget that 2020-2022 they will likely have huge surplus cash flow as fleet replacement almost stops for 2 years before they have to deal with the 777-200's I think around late 2022/2023 (they said they'd tell us Q4 this year what their plans are). Unless things go very badly my hunch is 22cps ordinary for the next 3-4 years is more likely than not. Might even be a special or two in 2021-22 depending on industry conditions.


GS ...........latest Price Target $2.85 approx 15% (SP$2.49) upside maybe a dividend and appreciation hounds dream
You two are on too it.


Bit much coming from Luxon's Pet Poodle

So profit down and declining share price but pays a good dividend - much like TRA.

So applying the Beagle formula in it's generous PE * 8.5 that would value AIR at
$0.24 * 8.5 =
$2.04.

Luckily I did not use his PE * 7.5 version.

But seriously folks, OK result but I will wait for the $2.04 before buying.

Nothing like TRA and good luck with your $2.04. Your post is all the explanation anyone needs as to why Snow Leopards are an endangered species :p

[winner69]

@stevebiddle via Twitter
I just went to book flights to Queenstown on Monday and was (mildly) shocked by Air New Zealand's $389 o/w fare from Wellington. I was totally shocked when I found Jetstar want $520 to get there o/w. Who says they're always cheaper?

[Baa_Baa]

@stevebiddle via Twitter
I just went to book flights to Queenstown on Monday and was (mildly) shocked by Air New Zealand's $389 o/w fare from Wellington. I was totally shocked when I found Jetstar want $520 to get there o/w. Who says they're always cheaper?

The gouging by both airlines on the tourism routes is ... think of a word that makes you puke money. Disgraceful, but I guess they still fill those aircraft because demand is met by supply, however expensive it is. Pity the poor Kiwi aunty who wants to visit her nieces and has no tourist interests. Cheaper to take a few days off and drive there, even including a Ferry if they're from Te Ika a Maui.

[value_investor]

A very interesting result indeed, I really like page 6 of the interim report. Wish more companies did this because it really tells you pretty much all you need to know. More passenger revenue, but more expensive fuel would be a good way at a elementary level to explain this.

Its the life of an airline investor, AIR can do anything and everything but some things are out their control. The cash flow shows that net operations are holding steady which is a good sign, also that the cash position is holding strong despite the dividend.

The forward bookings situation is a interesting gauge of just the future economically and it doesn't paint the best picture for tourism. I'll continue to hold and keep that juicy dividend, may add more if this keeps trending down. Best buy at maximum pessimism.

[Beagle]

"Best buy at maximum pessimism" Yeap, analysts think the numbers are a bit soft https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12208298
Hopefully negativity abounds and it gets thumped down to $2.00 (15% gross dividend level) so I can do a Couta1, back up the truck and enjoy gargantuan dividends for many years to come. Bring it on.

[Snow Leopard]

I am fairly confident that slide 3 of the HY presentation is wrong:

10356

No way is that Christopher Luxon.

[blackcap]

I am fairly confident that slide 3 of the HY presentation is wrong:

10356

No way is that Christopher Luxon.

Maybe he is getting with the program and deciding that transgendering is flavour of the month. Seems to me AIR is infected by that kind of nonsense. No better way than the CEO leading the way.

[winner69]

Heaps of extra flights to and from Wellington this weekend for Eminem concerts.

Boost AIR revenues

I not going ....going to John Prine more my thing. ‘Everything is Cool’ and ‘In Spite of Ourselves’ are pretty cool

[Sideshow Bob]

Heaps of extra flights to and from Wellington this weekend for Eminem concerts.



The National Party MP's won't have to fly to go and see him...…. :t_up:

[winner69]

The National Party MP's won't have to fly to go and see him...…. :t_up:

Green Party members seem very keen on flying ...hopefully good AIRcustomers

[Beagle]

Green Party members seem very keen on flying ...hopefully good AIRcustomers

I see that cost per available kilometre is up to just over 10 cents per kilometre flown. It occurs to me that Auckland to Queenstown is more than 1,000 km's https://www.distance.to/Auckland/Queenstown so costs AIR over $100 per seat.
Pretty cool that you can book ahead and get tickets as low as $79 and travel below cost. The greenies could pay for the optional carbon credits out of their own pocket and still be ahead and under cost...oh wait...that's asking a politician to put their own hand in their own pocket, yeah like that's going to happen :lol:

[Joshuatree]

You could just cut some of your trees down instead of lifting a leg on them each day:lol: faker.

My broker has dropped T/P from $2.95 to $2.61 but expect juicy divs to be maintained and to provide a floor to the S/P

[Sideshow Bob]

@stevebiddle via Twitter
I just went to book flights to Queenstown on Monday and was (mildly) shocked by Air New Zealand's $389 o/w fare from Wellington. I was totally shocked when I found Jetstar want $520 to get there o/w. Who says they're always cheaper?

Cost me $500 to fly from Queenstown to Palmy North at the last minute, last week.

And that was TO Palmy North - I could understand if it was leaving Palmy North......

[couta1]

Cost me $500 to fly from Queenstown to Palmy North at the last minute, last week.

And that was TO Palmy North - I could understand if it was leaving Palmy North...... Booked my first ski trip to Q/town for $256 return for two of us which includes 2 x 23kg bags, pretty good.

[Beagle]

Booked my first ski trip to Q/town for $256 return for two of us which includes 2 x 23kg bags, pretty good.

https://www.zermatt.ch/en :drool::drool::drool:

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.zermatt.ch/en :drool::drool::drool:

Zermatt is equivalent of $223 for a two-day pass.

Coronet (Concrete Peak) is $129 per day.

Know where I'd rather ski...…(ok have flights, hotels, food etc but just purely on skiing....)

[Beagle]

Only need 10,000 AIR shares to get $2,200 divvies a year, enough for a free flight to Europe, how cool is that !
Need quite a few more to afford to stay there in decent digs for a couple of weeks though :eek2:

[bull....]

price war begins

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12208482

[Beagle]

I reckon Chris Luxon had his toughest year ever last year. Looks like he has plenty of gas left in the tank so too speak which is a good thing in my opinion.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/whats-air-new-zealands-future/ar-BBUdHNq?ocid=spartandhp

[couta1]

price war begins

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12208482 $35 one way from WGTN to Q/town sounds good but add 2x 23kg bags and see if it betters Air. Haha I just checked and Jethole is $448 return with 2×23kg bags versus Air at $256, the Devil is in the detail with the Jetty one.Lol

[Joshuatree]

You'll have to ride with the beagle dog in the Hold your breath cargo section with a load like that.
Thats why they named it cargo HOLD btw:cool:

[Raz]

Only need 10,000 AIR shares to get $2,200 divvies a year, enough for a free flight to Europe, how cool is that !
Need quite a few more to afford to stay there in decent digs for a couple of weeks though :eek2:

Yeah Switzerland is rather expensive yet so memorable...less domestic flights when you go like this... there and that you will be able to afford here!

https://www.glacierexpress.ch/en/winterspecial/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIt5L1yJrg4AIVAh2PCh23QgTMEAAYASA AEgKYpvD_BwE

[Beagle]

Trying to get my nose to work on this one and see if we're close to a bottom but the fumes from burned jet fuel are very strong so will rely on gut feel as well along with FA but TA says stay out, have to acknowledge that.

I really would be extremely surprised if Snow Leopard got his desired $2.04, (but stranger things have happened in the aviation industry) and to be honest part of me would like to see this level so I can really open my shoulders and do a Couta1. I think we are pretty close to a bottom, (especially if one looks through the immediacy of the near term dividend and takes a view that they're effectively investing at $2.47 - 0.11 = $2.36 ex divvy). I think most professional investors and the analysts are trying to look through the remaining effects of the trials, tribulations and costs (both direct and indirect), of the long running Rolls Royce fiasco to determine how the airline will perform in the lower growth environment in FY20 once these issues are resolved.

I think the starting point in considering this medium term investment case is there will still be some lingering RR issues in FY20, especially the first half and Luxon admitted in the call they still expected to have one "dream"liner on the ground by September 2019, two at present, but worth noting they have had up to 5 in the first half of FY19 just gone.

My view is they can make somewhere around 30 cps in FY20...I really don't want to be more prescriptive than that as forecasting in the airline industry is fraught with serious risk !
This is in line with how the analysts are seeing it for FY20 and beyond, see here..https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/ Average analyst view is actually 31.4 cps in FY20, I will stick a little lower at this stage.

So medium term what's the investment case seeing as TA looks so terrible ?

Looking through the immediate 11 cps dividend and looking at this as effectively a $2.36 ex divvy investment for the medium term what do the metrics looks like ?
1. FY20 forward PE 236 / 30 = 7.9. Looks cheap but where are we in the cycle ?...anyone's guess how demand would hold up in a recession so maybe not so cheap ?
2. Dividend sustainability. Management are extremely confident about their ability to pay out the current level of dividend on a sustainable basis and barring a quite significant recession I think their confidence is well founded. 22 cps per annum grossed up for imputation credits = 30.55 cps / 236 = 12.9% per annum gross. I think that's extremely attractive but its not without risks, its the aviation industry, enough said !

How did QAN fare with the fuel price pressure compared to AIR's profit reduction ? https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190221/pdf/442t1n99nr8qn5.pdf
I think its clear they did better, (but weren't handicapped by RR engine issues), and Luxon and his team have some serious work to do in terms of their strategic review.
RR engine issues appear to be drawing slowly towards an eventual resolution, see https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-COMPANY-THE-4816/news/Boeing-Rolls-Royce-turbulence-finally-nearing-an-end-28091275/

Medium term I think AIR are well positioned in terms of their fleet requirements and the new A321 Neo fleet, (provided they prove to be operationally robust), should deliver some very good efficiencies on short haul routes and it will be good to see all the 787's operational again. Who knows how long it might take before FAA to grant extended ETOPS again but I doubt it will be in the near future.

Looking out to FY21 and beyond I think AIR are well positioned and hopefully having put some very serious operational issues behind them and with the benefit of a strategic review they should be more slightly most cost efficient and very well placed to compete and capable of earning 30-40 cps on an ongoing basis.

Investing now I guess it comes down to whether you back Luxon and his team to do a thorough strategic review or not and whether you think this is close to a bottom or not ?. I am quite pleased that they are taking their time with this review which gives encouragement that it will be comprehensive. He looks well energised in the video I posted yesterday after a tough year and I expect he will stay on for quite some time which I think is a good thing.

Nobody should rely on me to be picking the bottom here, (aviation is simply too volatile) but on an ex divvy basis buying at $2.36 or cum divvy at $2.47 the metrics especially the gross yield look encouraging.
Disc: Accumulating for dividend income and not expecting much if any capital gain in the near future..but over the due course of time I expect we will see north of $3 again and the possibility of a special divvy in FY21 or Fy22 is very real in my opinion.

My rating BSA (Beagle slowly accumulating) :)

[BlackPeter]

Good analysis ... (where is the reputation button when you need it?) - even if I personally would still be a bit careful with accumulating ...

The dip in tourism and immigration might cause (temporarily) more damage than we currently think / hope.
Not sure about this price war on the home turf either ... great for customers but not so great for shareholders.

But - while I personally expect the SP to drop further, I agree that in the long run it probably is at least a "fair" buy.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for the thoughts Beagle. I was surprised by the impact of Jet fuel on the results, Jeff McDowell said "We delivered earnings before taxation of $211 million. And although this is a decline of 35%, you'll see shortly that this was largely the result of a significant increase in fuel prices." ... "earnings were hugely impacted by $131 million headwind from increased fuel prices. That $131 million net impact was driven by $146 million, or 31% increase in the average price of jet fuel from USD 67 to USD 87 per barrel, which was then partially offset by an additional $15 million in gains from our fuel hedging program."

That knocked the wind out of the results which otherwise showed growth in revenue and other key metrics. The volatility of jet fuel prices clearly isn't sufficiently offset by the hedging program having only a relatively minor ($15m) effect on the period results. I'll be monitoring the price of jet fuel more closely given its impact, as you can see here (https://www.iata.org/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/Pages/index.aspx) (IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor), prices are rising off 2015/16 lows but still nowhere near highs as recently as 2012-2014.

I'm more inclined to continue to forego the dividends and keep an eye on the TA chart for a re-entry on potential further SP weakness in the cycle. The TA currently, by itself, suggests a very risky proposition buying in now. Best imho for the capital sensitive types to exercise patience.

[Beagle]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts guys. Always useful to have good thoughtful constructive counter views :)
Quick check of comparative PE's suggests AIR is not especially cheap, what on earth is with American airlines PE ?...but here we are...looking ahead
QAN FY20 9.1 FY21 8.9
Delta FY20 7.0 FY21 6.4
American Airlines FY20 5.5 FY21 4.8
United Continental FY20 7.3 FY21 6.6
AIR FY20 7.5 FY21 7.1 (based on average analyst forecast and based on ex divvy price of $2.36).
Seeing as 97% of all AIR stock is held by parties other than retail NZ shareholders one ignores those international PE comparisons at their peril.

Hmmmm might pay to go a bit slower on the accumulate and watch the technical's more closely.

That said I do expect AIR (barring a major exogenous shock) to trade in the ~ $2.00 ~ $3.50 range in the years ahead and its currently trading in the lowest quartile of that range, (hence my accumulate approach) and at a close to 13% gross yield I don't regret getting a few more this week.

My view is AIR is currently priced about right, (very slightly cheap) until such time as the uncertainty of RR issue is fully resolved and the outcome of the strategic review is known, which brings me back to the yield of 12.9%. I'm not aware of any other company listed on the NZX paying a similar yield that also doesn't carry material risk. HLG for example another stock paying a similar yield but also not without risk if the economy goes pear shaped.

[minimoke]

Only need 10,000 AIR shares to get $2,200 divvies a year, enough for a free flight to Europe, how cool is that !
Need quite a few more to afford to stay there in decent digs for a couple of weeks though :eek2:Or you could just get a job with them and get a $1800 bonus, paid out of shareholder funds

[Snow Leopard]

Good to see some sensible analysis here.

My $2.04 price is the price at or below which I would be willing to join the AIR share registry, it being a 25% discount to what I consider current fair value based on a 10 year view.

Disc: Picked the last $1.7X low and the subsequent $3.5X high, but I was probably just lucky.

Disc: Last saw an Air New Zealand plane in Feb 2016 at Pudong (Shanghai) Airport.

[Beagle]

Good to see some sensible analysis here.

My $2.04 price is the price at or below which I would be willing to join the AIR share registry, it being a 25% discount to what I consider current fair value based on a 10 year view.

Disc: Picked the last $1.7X low and the subsequent $3.5X high, but I was probably just lucky.

Disc: Last saw an Air New Zealand plane in Feb 2016 at Pudong (Shanghai) Airport.

Well done on picking high's and low's...my track record not quite so good but have ridden the turbulence with some success and did quit quite a few at ~ $3.50 ish.
So if $2.04 is a 25% discount to where you see fair value Snow Leopard 2.04 / 0.75 suggests you see fair value at $2.72 at present.
Interestingly we have seen a major reduction is where analysts see fair value this week, now $2.60 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/
I'm pretty much around the same level now after the shock announcement of late January and the recent result.
I know the management team are not happy with the current level of profit and will be working towards better results ahead.

[thestg]

With all the issues AIR is having, engine problems, high fuel price & lower profits I don’t think there is going to be a big rush to buy after going XD. My best guess for a good time to buy will be 27 March at around $2.30. Quite often the share price falls below XD price with the low occurring 14 days after going XD.
My usual strategy with AIR is to buy when below $2.60 & sell when around $3.20. This left me without holding AIR between June 2017 after selling for $3.18 and 30 January this year when I broke my own rules & bought back a small parcel at $2.85 (Too quick for a sip after a long dry spell).
This strategy has returned 45% between 2013 & 2016 and 43% between 2016 & 2017. Between times I have been moving the cash earmarked for AIR between THL, HLG & SPK. At the present time all is in SPK & cash but will be cashing in SPK shortly to re-invest back into AIR.
DISC: That’s the way I invest with AIR and could also result in losses D.Y.O.R.

[Raz]

With all the issues AIR is having, engine problems, high fuel price & lower profits I don’t think there is going to be a big rush to buy after going XD. My best guess for a good time to buy will be 27 March at around $2.30. Quite often the share price falls below XD price with the low occurring 14 days after going XD.
My usual strategy with AIR is to buy when below $2.60 & sell when around $3.20. This left me without holding AIR between June 2017 after selling for $3.18 and 30 January this year when I broke my own rules & bought back a small parcel at $2.85 (Too quick for a sip after a long dry spell).
This strategy has returned 45% between 2013 & 2016 and 43% between 2016 & 2017. Between times I have been moving the cash earmarked for AIR between THL, HLG & SPK. At the present time all is in SPK & cash but will be cashing in SPK shortly to re-invest back into AIR.
DISC: That’s the way I invest with AIR and could also result in losses D.Y.O.R.

I have made more money off this share than any other on NZX except for Xero. The general trend for trading has not been too hard to pick. I just see it currently has so many more moving parts than in the last few years. Hard to pick.. yet one would expect to fall a touch more yet given the current negatives.

[Beagle]

Appreciate all the feedback and discussion. Happy to acknowledge that buying now based on a theoretical ex divvy basis at $2.36 there is some potential downside but as mentioned yesterday I don't think that's as much as 30 cents. On the other hand over the next couple of years once RR issues are fully resolved, efficiencies from the new A321 neo's kick in and one-off costs like the $40m direct costs regarding the RR issue are non repeating plus indirect non repeating RR costs, adverse currency impact this most recent period of ~ $20m if I remember correctly and about another ~ $20m to launch Chicago and Taipei new services, total non repeating including indirect RR costs could be in the region of ~ $100m per annum.
Net profit could surprise in FY21 as could a special divvy. Yes its risky as TA looks dreadful but I see opportunity in the years ahead too and I also see a 12.9% gross yield plus special coming at some stage. I think I am happy to back myself to keep slowly accumulating with a medium term 3-5 year view. Risk and reward go hand in hand.

[couta1]

BYB (Back yourself Beagle)

[Beagle]

BYB (Back yourself Beagle)

Trying to get my nose to work on this one and see if we're close to a bottom but the fumes from burned jet fuel are very strong....

Thanks mate. Early days but at ~ $2.47 cum divvy it doesn't look like my nose for value and a feed has been too badly affected by the spent jet fuel fumes...
Possibly should have saved the barking for when I'd finished accumulating...

[macduffy]

Thanks mate. Early days but at ~ $2.47 cum divvy it doesn't look like my nose for value and a feed has been too badly affected by the spent jet fuel fumes...
Possibly should have saved the barking for when I'd finished accumulating...

Accumulation is usually followed by distribution.

;)

[emveha]

A small blessing: at least Air New Zealand doesn't operate any 737 MAX.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111178733/air-nz-seeks-millions-in-damages-from-z-energy-after-fuel-pipeline-damaged?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+12+ March+2019

Interesting case. Does an implied contract to continuously supply confer with it the obligation from a commercial viewpoint to consider and implement all reasonable steps to ensure said supply continues continuously ? I will follow this one with interest.
Disc: I have shares in both AIR and ZEL

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111178733/air-nz-seeks-millions-in-damages-from-z-energy-after-fuel-pipeline-damaged?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+12+ March+2019

Interesting case. Does an implied contract to continuously supply confer with it the obligation from a commercial viewpoint to consider and implement all reasonable steps to ensure said supply continues continuously ? I will follow this one with interest.
Disc: I have shares in both AIR and ZEL

I find it pretty unbelievable that neither the airline nor the supplier had set up any contingency plans or risk management for such an event. I guess surely - if you list the top 10 risks to impact on the service reliability of an airline, than interruptions to the fuel supply must be somewhere on this list?

Having no contracts detailing whose responsiblity it is to ensure the continuous supply is just an outcome of above. Guessing after the event whose responsiblity it could have been is pathetic.

Not sure, how long ZEL was a partner to this contract (did they inherit that from Shell)? and how NZR (I think it is their pipeline, isn't it) would fit into the story ... but this whole thing clearly makes us to the loughing stock of the world.

One company providing a crucial fuel supply without defining the provided service standard (they never seemed to have thought about this);

The countries biggest airline relying on a crucial fuel supply without defining and agreeing on the required service standard (they never seemed to have cared about this);

The refining monopolist running a pipeline without defining the reliability of the fuel supply.

All (?) care but no responsibility and no risk mitigation. Which banana republic are we talking about?

[steveb]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111178733/air-nz-seeks-millions-in-damages-from-z-energy-after-fuel-pipeline-damaged?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+12+ March+2019

Interesting case. Does an implied contract to continuously supply confer with it the obligation from a commercial viewpoint to consider and implement all reasonable steps to ensure said supply continues continuously ? I will follow this one with interest.
Disc: I have shares in both AIR and ZEL
Looks a bit iffy to me AIR going down the the american model of litigation. Chuck some sort of allegation out there,then try to get a settlement.The fuel companies forming the cartel supplying AIR will just put rhere prices up and joe public will end up on the recieving end again!

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting BP's position and will Z SP take a hit ?

"The airline had already settled a damages claim with BP, Geye said"

[Beagle]

I find it pretty unbelievable that neither the airline nor the supplier had set up any contingency plans or risk management for such an event. I guess surely - if you list the top 10 risks to impact on the service reliability of an airline, than interruptions to the fuel supply must be somewhere on this list?

Having no contracts detailing whose responsiblity it is to ensure the continuous supply is just an outcome of above. Guessing after the event whose responsiblity it could have been is pathetic.

Not sure, how long ZEL was a partner to this contract (did they inherit that from Shell)? and how NZR (I think it is their pipeline, isn't it) would fit into the story ... but this whole thing clearly makes us to the loughing stock of the world.

One company providing a crucial fuel supply without defining the provided service standard (they never seemed to have thought about this);

The countries biggest airline relying on a crucial fuel supply without defining and agreeing on the required service standard (they never seemed to have cared about this);

The refining monopolist running a pipeline without defining the reliability of the fuel supply.

All (?) care but no responsibility and no risk mitigation. Which banana republic are we talking about?

I'm not normally an advocate for any form of Govt intervention but airline travel is an essential service so if AIR and the fuel companies can't get agreement around a robust supply chain I would think the Government needs to stipulate some minimum standard that's above the current one. I believe that's what the enquiry around the fuel pipeline leak is essentially looking at.

[777]

Aircraft can always tanker fuel into an airport to be able to depart, even if it has to refuel again enroute to its planned destination. Sure it costs the operator a lot more to do so.

[Beagle]

BYB (Back yourself Beagle)

Thanks mate, backed myself for more today at $2.47.

[Leftfield]

Thanks mate, backed myself for more today at $2.47.

Good luck with that...... TA not exactly supportive of your decision IMHO. (Disc don't hold)

[Baa_Baa]

Good luck with that...... TA not exactly supportive of your decision IMHO. (Disc don't hold)

TA is discretionary, one can use it rigidly or ignore it when it suits. IMHO the former is a more reliable approach. I suppose FA is the same, but different. The hard part of TA is figuring out what is working for each individual share, because there is no rule that fits them all. Once that is found out however, TA is a most satisfying tool, until it doesn’t work then it’s back to figuring out what is working.

[Leftfield]

TA is discretionary, one can use it rigidly or ignore it when it suits. IMHO the former is a more reliable approach. I suppose FA is the same, but different. The hard part of TA is figuring out what is working for each individual share, because there is no rule that fits them all. Once that is found out however, TA is a most satisfying tool, until it doesn’t work then it’s back to figuring out what is working.

Of course. I have also now read Beagles previous posts giving his FA reasons for his decision and can understand them.

I repeat..... good luck with this decision. (But plse also remember I'm entitled to make my own decisions which would be not to fight the downward trend.)

JMHO

[bull....]

break down of the 2.50 area looks like just under $2 again at some time

[see weed]

Just a little reminder ex div tomorrow, you have until 5pm tonight to buy in for the div. That also includes SPK ex div today.

[Beagle]

A small blessing: at least Air New Zealand doesn't operate any 737 MAX.
Thank God for that, the last thing AIR needs right now is another challenge https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/the-civil-aviation-authority-is-suspending-operations-of-boeing-737-max-8-aircraft-both-in-and-out-of-nz/ar-BBUHaYr?ocid=spartandhp


Good luck with that...... TA not exactly supportive of your decision IMHO. (Disc don't hold)
Thanks. I don't think anyone on here follows AIR as closely as I do. To clarify, I am semi retired (57) and buying for income, see previous comments about ~ 13% gross yield. Yes there are risks in the aviation industry for sure but I believe there is a very good chance they can continue the present level of dividend for the foreseeable future plus a special in FY21 or FY22.
I would not be upset to see it at $2 as that enhances my ability to earn extra income at a cheaper capital cost. I believe at $2.47 cum a 11 cent fully imputed dividend, (effective ex divvy price $2.36) I am buying in the bottom quartile of where I expect the trading range to be in the years ahead ($2.00 - $3.60) and that's good enough for me. I am not pretending I can pick the bottom with this one, (too much spent aviation fuel affecting my nose) so lowest quartile is good enough.
I know the TA doesn't look good and if goes down I am happy to buy more...

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/boeings-arrogance-caused-crashes-aviation-expert/ar-BBUHKcp?ocid=spartandhp

Not a good look for Boeing.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Aircraft can always tanker fuel into an airport to be able to depart, even if it has to refuel again enroute to its planned destination. Sure it costs the operator a lot more to do so.

There are probably product tankers headed here or for the East Coast of Australia loaded to the gunnels with JetA1.

If there was a repeat of the pipeline disruption and I was the Pooh Bar of a fuel supplier with an obligation to maintain supply I would be waving dollar notes under the cargo owners noses to divert to Auckland.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/boeings-arrogance-caused-crashes-aviation-expert/ar-BBUHKcp?ocid=spartandhp

Not a good look for Boeing.

Getting worse for those airlines with MAX planes ....won’t be any flying soon

Hope there’s nothing lurking in the workings of the Dreamliners besides the dodgy engines.

Had my foray into owning airline stocks and loved AIR for a while ....it’s things like this that puts me off them ....one malfunction / mistake and it all comes crashing down. I’d hate to part own a plane that killed many people and buying AIR or any any airline stock seems to be tempting fate.

[Beagle]

MAX turned into MIN overnight, (sorry couldn't resist). For those that don't know all 737 MAX variants worldwide are in the process of being grounded. Those currently in the air will be grounded when they land. Thankfully this does not affect AIR.

[steveb]

of course it will affect AIR,there will be all sorts of disruptions around the world,with major scheduling problems, connections missed,etc.Not to mention the public's adverse reaction to air travel,it's a fickle commodity is trust.

[dobby41]

Not to mention the public's adverse reaction to air travel,it's a fickle commodity is trust.

People won't stop flying!

[winner69]

That was a pretty quick recovery of the divie .....it did go ex-div today didn’t it?

[Beagle]

That was a pretty quick recovery of the divie .....it did go ex-div today didn’t it?

Yes it did. I remain of the view that looking through any near term dividends to determine the theoretical ex divvy price is the appropriate way to work one's FA when buying just before a dividend goes ex.

[winner69]

Sort of paying for their sins

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/19ec34c7/air-nz-contact-genesis-and-z-energy-to-create-forestry-portfolio.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20Contact%20Genesis%20and%20 Z%20Energy%20to%20create%20forestry%20portfolio&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20Contact%20Genesis%20and%20Z %20Energy%20to%20create%20forestry%20portfolio+CID _d190461d6be559f7e0cd1ea4cd46582c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle19ec34c7air-nz-contact-genesis-and-z-energy-to-create-forestry-portfoliohtml

[peat]

Sort of paying for their sins

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/19ec34c7/air-nz-contact-genesis-and-z-energy-to-create-forestry-portfolio.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20Contact%20Genesis%20and%20 Z%20Energy%20to%20create%20forestry%20portfolio&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20Contact%20Genesis%20and%20Z %20Energy%20to%20create%20forestry%20portfolio+CID _d190461d6be559f7e0cd1ea4cd46582c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle19ec34c7air-nz-contact-genesis-and-z-energy-to-create-forestry-portfoliohtml

suing Z with one arm , and hugging trees with them with the other arm . lol

[King1212]

Oh oh...$2 here we come....

[Beagle]

Oh oh...$2 here we come....

Bring it on...yield at $2.00 is 15.3% gross. If I buy enough I will be able to comfortably retire early :t_up:

[value_investor]

Bring it on...yield at $2.00 is 15.3% gross. If I buy enough I will be able to comfortably retire early :t_up:

Expect a bit of turbulence along the way, that 11c could be 20c next year or 5c. I'll be in at $2 with ya if it does back down.

[King1212]

Bring it on...yield at $2.00 is 15.3% gross. If I buy enough I will be able to comfortably retire early :t_up:

Never put the eggs on the one basket...and only put money that u can afford to lose in the share market

[Beagle]

Never put the eggs on the one basket...

To be clear I would never advocate doing that. By and large I stick to not having more than 10% of my liquid resources in any one stock but in exceptional circumstances with an exceptional opportunity I am happy to make an exception within reasonably prudent investment parameters.

[Raz]

Bring it on...yield at $2.00 is 15.3% gross. If I buy enough I will be able to comfortably retire early :t_up:

Hmm I know what you mean however ensure you have not simply fallen for the company :)

[Marilyn Munroe]

Here is a link to data gleaned from ADS-B transmissions from the crashed Ethiopian Boeing 737 MAX. While not of direct relevance to AIR i believe it will be of interest to readers of this thread.

I draw your attention to the green line on the first graph in the linked page. It shows the planes rate of climb. Scary.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flightradar24-data-regarding-the-crash-of-ethiopian-airlines-flight-302/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn