AIR - Air NZ.

[psychic]

what a stupid review for the flight. So many 'one-off' events due to it being the delivery flight, making it non-applicable to every day Joe that has to deal with other passengers and bad tempted flight attendants.

Totally agree. What a twat. A little more effort would have been nice given the exclusive nature of this little ride. Perhaps got stuck into the free turps early on and had little recall. Oh well..

[arc]

Heads UP...

Looks like the accumulation race is getting ready to run Again.

[Beagle]

Totally agree. What a twat. A little more effort would have been nice given the exclusive nature of this little ride. Perhaps got stuck into the free turps early on and had little recall. Oh well..

Hard to disagree with that. Anyone with even a modicum of interest in Air New Zealand, aviation or the Dreamliner could have written a better one in their sleep.
Not a single mention of the technical aspects of the plane, whether it was quieter than other aircraft, whether the reduced effective cabin pressure equilivent to, 6,000 feet altitude instead of the usual 8,000 feet meant she arrived feeling fresher than normal after 14 hours flight, the bigger windows, the calibre of the seat comfort e.t.c.

Message to Air N.Z. management - If you'd like someone to provide a decent write-up on your inaugural commercial flight to Perth on 15 October, feel free to get in touch, I'd be happy to oblige. You'll have my e.mail address from the special dividend suggestion I sent you this morning :)

[Goldstein]

Indeed, journalism of the lightest kind. There are some new features I would be interested in.

1. The higher humidity of the cabin. Was this noticeable?
2. The larger windows.
3. The quieter engines.
4. How did the lighter plane feel in any turbulence.

To fly in an inaugural flight and talk about the menu. Good grief.

[arc]

Moosie
Im thinking a quick fall to $1.9x. then a recovery which may take a few days (especially if its a big player in the background trying to buy in without driving prices upwards too fast.)

Note the $2.00 - $2.08 action on Monday/Tuesday was a 4% rise... followed by mass selling on Tuesday (4% in one morning was good)
Note also the next planned sell off as a single lump (market depth) (there are other smaller volumes in line before it) appears to be at $2.05... strategically below Tuesdays $2.08

possible $1.95 or $1.90 bottom ... rising to $2.05 for a sell off (5.1% to 7.8%) ??

We may yet see another sell down happen after today, sometime in the next few weeks.
If the latest troughs were caused by a single large buyer wanting in then we may see the price rise and continue after todays efforts
If the trough is because of an algo/HFT .... we most likely will see multiple waves to come... be ready.... be in.. be out.. quick.

[Leftfield]

Fasten your seat belts… gonna be a bumpy ride today.

[Goldstein]

Righto, who wants to guess how bad our portfolios are going to get hit today?

If there is a buyer trying to manipulate the SP as some have suggested here, this will play right into their hands.

There appears to be suuports at $1.80 and $2.00, so could be quite a trading opportunity for some.

[tzbang]

Can someone please tell a newbie like myself how a single buyer can manipulate the SP? And how you spot that?

[Goldstein]

Can someone please tell a newbie like myself how a single buyer can manipulate the SP? And how you spot that?

Hi tzbang. As Hoop posted see http://www.incrediblecharts.com/trading/shakeout.php

[arc]

Short version
A BIG player already owns some shares in the company, but not enought for their own liking.
They sell the shares they have at minimum price or even below the present price trying to force a lower average price.
If they succeed they may actually trigger a panic "sell-now" level that someone else has set as the minimum price incase the price does start going into freefall.

That can be either good or bad for us depending on your strategy.. long term holding.. its just a bump in the road
Short term startegy.. a chance to load up during the troughs and take profit on the temporary high... repeat cycle
you could make a few % in a couple of days... or you just load and hold

Danger is you sell on what you think is a temporary high only to find the price continues to rise..

its all personal point of view and strategy

[arc]

The race is on...

[tzbang]

oh thanks.. hmm that's quite a clever play

[gv1]

Probably falling below 1.5, see whats happening in the Middleeast.

[couta1]

Probably falling below 1.5, see whats happening in the Middleeast.
Very Bearish there, I don't think so, it won't take long for the Israelis to hammer those nutters into submission.

[Toasty]

Very Bearish there, I don't think so, it won't take long for the Israelis to hammer those nutters into submission.

Unless they wipe them out they will be back where they started in a few months when the next batch have been trained and equipped.

Its hard to be excited about the world at the moment. I wonder if many people feel the same way and if that would put a dampener on air travel in general. I just feel like building a bunker and settling in....

[Hoop]

Righto, who wants to guess how bad our portfolios are going to get hit today?
Might sound rough Moosie re: your new TA strategy discipline..so no offense intended ....To be successful at TA you have to stick to the discipline!!!...Regarding recent AIR buy in...You got what you deserved..you prempted (assumed) medium term buy signals before they happen that it did not happen..so you got faked out..You only buy on short term buy signals for Short term investments thereby be prepared to sell them on short term sell signals..AIR failed at it's first resistance (208) this was your signal to get out, Not buy in!!...If you are going to buy for the longer term or buy and hold strategies you don't act on short term signals you resist emotion (greed) and rely on Medium/long term signals [my charts are set at default (medium term)].
I sold out at the sell signal over 3 weeks ago and I'm still out because I stuck to the TA discipline..


If there is a buyer trying to manipulate the SP as some have suggested here, this will play right into their hands.

There appears to be suuports at $1.80 and $2.00, so could be quite a trading opportunity for some.
The buyer's crystal ball is probably no better than ours..
No!!..there is support before then at 193/195 area ..then 182ish...The 200 is no longer a support it got busted this morning and is now a resistance..


Can someone please tell a newbie like myself how a single buyer can manipulate the SP? And how you spot that?
Just to add to Golsteins post...after clicking that link re shakeout...have a look at my post with the depth table (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page85)


Probably falling below 1.5, see whats happening in the Middleeast.
Technically speaking .. reaching any where near 1.50 is at the moment highly unlikely...
To clear up the technical support blurryness around the 193/195 area it seems 195 is now established as a support area..

Disc: have none...on watchlist waiting for NZX50 weakness to end/AIR medium term buy signals to happen

[Beagle]

Malaysian airlines can't catch a break can they ! Other airlines now avoiding airspace around the Russian / Ukrainian border so apart from the effect on oil prices sparked by the tension this incident has had I wouldn't expect much impact on travel demand.

Almost certainly shot down by a Russian made missile that's been supplied by the Russians to front lines for the ongoing battle the separatists' are fighting so what does this do for U.S. / Russian relations, especially after the U.S. ramped up sanctions yesterday ?

None of this helps, neither does the $3b hole carved out of the economy by the fairly dramatic fall in dairy prices.

The ironic thing I've noticed lately is that when the U.S. market has a good day, like yesterday, American Airlines, Delta e.t.c. go up and yet Air went down six cents, yet when they go down 3-4% like they have overnight in reaction to these events no doubt AIR will go down as well. There's something I'm not seeing here or its hammer time, I'm not sure which to be honest.

[hummerh40]

some pretty big orders going through

[Hoop]

Malaysian airlines can't catch a break can they ! Other airlines now avoiding airspace around the Russian / Ukrainian border so apart from the effect on oil prices sparked by the tension this incident has had I wouldn't expect much impact on travel demand.

Almost certainly shot down by a Russian made missile that's been supplied by the Russians to front lines for the ongoing battle the separatists' are fighting so what does this do for U.S. / Russian relations, especially after the U.S. ramped up sanctions yesterday ?

None of this helps, neither does the $3b hole carved out of the economy by the fairly dramatic fall in dairy prices.

The ironic thing I've noticed lately is that when the U.S. market has a good day, like yesterday, American Airlines, Delta e.t.c. go up and yet Air went down six cents, yet when they go down 3-4% like they have overnight in reaction to these events no doubt AIR will go down as well. There's something I'm not seeing here or its hammer time, I'm not sure which to be honest.

There's something I'm not seeing here or its hammer time, I'm not sure which to be honest.....Roger..If you are looking longer term forget the noise...

Lets think outside the box .....First of all, we are involved in a marketplace (stockmarket) which is full of noisy people with differing agenda's, differing attitudes, differing diciplines and differing temperaments, and they all react together as a group to ever changing external factors (long term and short term) affecting the market environment they are surrounded within....From a TA point of view you are not investing into a company you are investing into a marketplace that buys/sells that companies shares...so we are at the whim of the markets behaviour which as all know can be very cruel at times especially if your investment discipline revolves around Fundamentals....but that nature.... in general, life is in a state of flux its always moving in the state of various degrees between yin or yang with the rare moment of "normality" (fundamental normal) happening only with the yin yang crossover..... Humans are animals and we herd together, intereact together and rely on animal instinct to survive both at an individual or group level...the market place is a great place to show our true nature...it shows just how primitive we humans can be...e.g basic Greed or Fear.
With hindsight (40 years in shares) I think I would've been far better off having a psychology degree than one in Business Management.

Malaysian Airlines...My heart goes out to this company and those poor passengers this year...they have suffered the blunt end of the odds...

So... that it Roger...so what was the point of this silly rant.......oh yeah, in brief, ............the NZ market at the moment sucks :p

[Beagle]

Nice psychoanalysis there Hoop :cool:
Is it the market that sucks or the ever present rash of new IPO's sucking the life out of it in tandem with a Reserve bank that seems determined to snuff out even the slightest bit of economic growth.


I just feel like building a bunker and settling in....
I can relate to that feeling Toasty, its hard to win when you're swimming against a tide that feels like its going out.
I think its hammer time.... but not with shares :cool: At times like this hammering alcohol seems more attractive than hammering shares.

[Hoop]

Nice psychoanalysis there Hoop :cool:
Is it the market that sucks or the ever present rash of new IPO's sucking the life out of it in tandem with a Reserve bank that seems determined to snuff out even the slightest bit of economic growth. All of the above + less available money the dairy prices going down indicates lower terms of trade which correlates strongly with the currency price therefore the lowering of the NZ$ causes investors to lower there NZ risk and slowly gravitate away from NZ$ to a safer currency and also other non NZ$ markets....you know the usual ebb and flow stuff...Also investor attitude is in the doldrums too


I can relate to that feeling Toasty, its hard to win when you're swimming against a tide that feels like its going out. The ol' saying goes... an ebbing tide lowers all boats
I think its hammer time.... but not with shares :cool: At times like this hammering alcohol seems more attractive than hammering shares. And why not!!!..After all, it is Friday afternoon is it not??:D
...........

[Hoop]

I was unabashedly going for an intraday/momentum swing trade on AIR but lost out Hoop. Was going to sell after yesterdays NZ close but buyer on ASX pulled large bid so I was stuck. Didn't realise the spread was so big as well! Ah well, I'm confident in the company, fundamentals, news, directors buying etc to wait this out a bit longer. Higher low if she can keep level today, not doing badly at all considering. I'm also of the mind this is an accumulation/algo play so will see where it goes with my money where my mouth is! :O

Hmmm...Yeah if you really want in on this share you could use a different strategy...could use the buy at support strategy with tight stops..after all 195 is a support level...problem is with this strategy the NZ market being small you can quickly get whipsawed out.

[arc]

2:55pm and selling is still happening at 196.
I suspect progressive distribution.
Next week could see further sp reductions.

[Beagle]

Nice psychoanalysis there Hoop
Is it the market that sucks or the ever present rash of new IPO's sucking the life out of it in tandem with a Reserve bank that seems determined to snuff out even the slightest bit of economic growth. All of the above + less available money the dairy prices going down indicates lower terms of trade which correlates strongly with the currency price therefore the lowering of the NZ$ causes investors to lower there NZ risk and slowly gravitate away from NZ$ to a safer currency and also other non NZ$ markets....you know the usual ebb and flow stuff...Also investor attitude is in the doldrums too

I can relate to that feeling Toasty, its hard to win when you're swimming against a tide that feels like its going out. The ol' saying goes... an ebbing tide lowers all boats
I think its hammer time.... but not with shares At times like this hammering alcohol seems more attractive than hammering shares. And why not!!!..After all, it is Friday afternoon is it not??
Why not indeed. Basically what you're saying is the market is a bit stuffed and I tend to agree it is, in the short term. I should have shorted the index with futures.
I'm long term with this stock but I suspect investors will need to keep their seat belts firmly fastened for a while.

[skid]

Very Bearish there, I don't think so, it won't take long for the Israelis to hammer those nutters into submission.
We're not going to get into that debate again are we ?

[skid]

For what its worth ,I just flew AIR from Vancouver to Auckland--When I went to the toilet just after take off,both cabinet doors were wide open and the light cover was laying on the floor--the first 4 hours were like sitting in a winter storm.......but it was full.

[couta1]

We're not going to get into that debate again are we ?
No debate nutters are nutters simply a comment on things not taking too long to sort out but yes I am pro Israel and proud of it:cool:

[arc]

Corporate buyer finally got their volume together, took most of the day...
16:35pm volume 1,180,622 @ $1.95

[Zaphod]

can you confirm re DRP plan?

The form is still available on their website

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/shareholder-forms

You can enrol, but Air NZ suspended the DRP a few years ago. No word on when it will be reactivated.

[Zaphod]

The company has record low gearing and I expect well north of $1 billion of cash on hand as at 30 June 2014.
A special dividend to celebrate the 75th year of the airline seems appropriate to me. I think a special fully imputed divvy of 10 cps would be nice and would cost them a fairly modest $111m and hardly even make a dent on their massive cash stock-pile.
Lobby them at investor@airnz.co.nz

The more people that send them this suggestion the more likely they are to do it :D

Yes, $111M is but a drop in the bucket. What a great idea to celebrate their 75th year. Email's away! ;)

[Zaphod]

For what its worth ,I just flew AIR from Vancouver to Auckland--When I went to the toilet just after take off,both cabinet doors were wide open and the light cover was laying on the floor--the first 4 hours were like sitting in a winter storm.......but it was full.

Welcome back.

I fly that route regularly and overall it is very well patronised in all classes for both directions. YVR makes a great alternative to LAX for onward Canadian domestic travel, or perhaps as an alternative (albeit less convenient to LAX) route on to Europe. AirNZ's soft and hard products are superior to what AC provide on YVR-SYD, so you'll also see a few passengers travelling on to Australia.

[grayman]

Corporate buyer finally got their volume together, took most of the day...
16:35pm volume 1,180,622 @ $1.95


Newbie here. I made my very first buy a little before that corporate trade. I've been looking at Air for a month or so now and with my limited knowledge and a bit of encouragement from this thread decided to go for it at 1.95.

Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents.

[skid]

Welcome back.

I fly that route regularly and overall it is very well patronised in all classes for both directions. YVR makes a great alternative to LAX for onward Canadian domestic travel, or perhaps as an alternative (albeit less convenient to LAX) route on to Europe. AirNZ's soft and hard products are superior to what AC provide on YVR-SYD, so you'll also see a few passengers travelling on to Australia.

I might also add that the stewardess were commendable (just didnt like the physical plane much) It would be great to get a dreamliner in the works at some stage.
Air Canada sucked--the 'no meal'' policy on the National Carrier for a 5 1/2 hour domestic flight is just rubbish IMO.

[skid]

No debate nutters are nutters simply a comment on things not taking too long to sort out but yes I am pro Israel and proud of it:cool:

I know you are pro Isreal Couts--I think you are most likely a reasonable person,but i think it is one dimensional thinking to not consider the innocent (on both sides)

consider this paragraph


The media makes out like this is an intractable conflict between two equal warring parties, but it is not. Palestinian extremists' attacks on innocent civilians must be condemned and ended but the root of the conflict lies elsewhere -- in the dispossession of the Palestinian people. Israel currently occupies, colonises, bombs, raids, and controls the water, trade and the borders of a legally free nation that has been recognised by the United Nations. In Gaza, Israel has created the largest open-air prison in the world, and then blockaded it. Now as bombs fall, the families, literally have no way to get out.

[Beagle]

Newbie here. I made my very first buy a little before that corporate trade. I've been looking at Air for a month or so now and with my limited knowledge and a bit of encouragement from this thread decided to go for it at 1.95.

Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents.

Congrats on your well timed purchase and welcome to the forum. Healthy volume is always a good thing. There's little doubt the Malaysian airliner was shot down by mistake and is a one off and the Israeli's and Palestine people have been going "at it" since time began and probably always will be so that's also almost irrelevant from an investment perspective. I think the correction has been overdone, (American Airlines, Delta e.t.c. have corrected nothing like AIR has), down 15% from $2.28. Good timing for the final divvy but put your seat belt on because there's lot of skittish investors around who appear for reasons best known to themselves to think the world is ending soon.


I might also add that the stewardess were commendable (just didnt like the physical plane much) It would be great to get a dreamliner in the works at some stage.
Air Canada sucked--the 'no meal'' policy on the National Carrier for a 5 1/2 hour domestic flight is just rubbish IMO.

Vancouver is an ideal route for the plane in my opinion. Digging around I saw some evidence yesterday that fuel savings are greater than the 20% Boeing had anticipated, Air Nippon have been getting 21% with their 787-8 and the 787-9 has even more efficiency and a super high tech tail fin from military technology that'll reduce drag even more compared to the 787-8 so the fuel savings are going to be fantastic for AIR as it gradually receives delivery of the ten 787-9's they have on order. Quite apart from that and perhaps more importantly, customer reaction to the Dreamliner from extensive survey's conducted by other airlines has been extremely positive.
Excellent cabin pressure, better humidity, very low noise level's and the massive windows have been extremely well received by passengers.
Air have options for another 8 as previously mentioned, total possible 18.

[Beagle]

No debate nutters are nutters simply a comment on things not taking too long to sort out but yes I am pro Israel and proud of it:cool:

I think its best to leave this debate for a different forum mate as with respect, this has nothing to do with Air New Zealand.

[Zaphod]

Vancouver is an ideal route for the plane in my opinion. Digging around I saw some evidence yesterday that fuel savings are greater than the 20% Boeing had anticipated, Air Nippon have been getting 21% with their 787-8 and the 787-9 has even more efficiency and a super high tech tail fin from military technology that'll reduce drag even more compared to the 787-8 so the fuel savings are going to be fantastic for AIR as it gradually receives delivery of the ten 787-9's they have on order. Quite apart from that and perhaps more importantly, customer reaction to the Dreamliner from extensive survey's conducted by other airlines has been extremely positive.
Excellent cabin pressure, better humidity, very low noise level's and the massive windows have been extremely well received by passengers.
Air have options for another 8 as previously mentioned, total possible 18.

AKL-YVR is certainly a route that's suited to the 787 and I too would love to see that aircraft scheduled on that service. Perhaps later flying on from YVR to a European destination such as FRA? I'd hesitate to create another LHR link albeit via Canada. I think most likely, once more aircraft arrive Air NZ will adhere to their original plan of one further North American destination such as ORD or DEN.

I wonder whether the Spaceseat will ever make an appearance on the 787? Personally I like that seat much better than the standard premium economy offering, but perhaps the floor area it consumes in the aircraft adversely affects yields?

[Hoop]

Newbie here. I made my very first buy a little before that corporate trade. I've been looking at Air for a month or so now and with my limited knowledge and a bit of encouragement from this thread decided to go for it at 1.95.

Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents.

Hi Grayman welcome to ST

Let me tell you now, you got no encouragement from me with the timing to buy AIR on Friday:)..Don't get me wrong..AIR is a great company but at the moment the overall NZ equity market is going though a period of weakness...and for some unknown reason AIR has taken a bigger correction so far than the NZX50 index itself..maybe AIR's correction is overdone and will rise up from this 1.95 point or maybe this weakness still has some legs...Time will tell...

Now that you have these shares I feel from your first post that you are watching today's AIR's market with intensive interest...This is common newbie behaviour to follow shares very closely..but..it can produce unnecessary worry with just normal day by day fluctuations..

Purchasing shares for the first time opens up a new type of behaviour which to many may not have experienced before..

Buying for the first time creates some stress..buying into weak markets will create more anxiety than normal, so if you have some anxiety already at day one I suggest you google pucker factor (https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=pucker+factor+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gfe_rd=cr&ei=Q0PLU6OeMcON8QfT4YH4Ag) or investor pucker factor (https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=investor+pucker+factor+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gfe_rd=cr&ei=dEPLU_Nrw43xB9PhgfgC) so you can understand this type of stress/anxiety behaviour you are experiencing and try to understand your own behavioural limitations (we all have our strength and weaknesses)and then adopt an investment strategy to best suit your personal mental behaviour and attitudes..Many well educated people lose out unnecessarily because they failed to identify their weaknesses which then affects their decision making abilities later...e.g emotional selling..
To ease your concerns about your quote..."Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents."

That wasn't a large order worth worrying about..nor worth analysing....rememember the saying "Don't sweat the small stuff"......Also, us plebs are not privy to the reasons of each small buyer/seller info only the highest of divine heavenly powers and the individual who traded have this info..Anyone on this forum who says the reasons why, only assume...there are some TA indicators which can pick up the much larger orders.. and some very unusual (big or small) trading behaviour can picked up by watching the depth info as it is released...The very big trades have to be disclosed to us shareholder through the NZX by those big traders.

This diagram below shows the volume and price near the end of the day (depth) and under that the last 6 month volume history...As you can see it was a normal day volume-wise ...the buyers found it easy to pick up shares at their price so the market was considered weak.

Hope you the best of investing Grayman
Hoop

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/air-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/air-1.png.html)

[grayman]

Thanks for the advise and the welcome, I'll be sure to have a read. Perhaps I should of said some of the comments made it look like it could be a good time to buy instead of encouraged.

In any case it feels good to have something in the game. Definitely gives extra incentive to learn.

[modandm]

I think its best to leave this debate for a different forum mate as with respect, this has nothing to do with Air New Zealand.

+1

I have never seen the AIR thread so popular - but keep on topic

Welcome to the ownership registrar grayman. If your new to investing you have picked an interesting stock to start, but one I believe is significantly undervalued. Some wise words from Hoop too - though you will develop what works for you over time.

There have been two broker notes out in the past few weeks - one ominously titled 'nearing the peak', and the other from Marcus Curley, removing AIR from the conviction list, while maintaining buy.

The first piece is done by an analyst who applies a ROIC based approach to valuation and investment thinking. This is a well grounded and solid approach used by many successful investors. The analyst basically is neutral on the stock, arguing that it will struggle to earn its cost of capital over the long term. Air is currently trading near book value implying that it will earn its cost of capital. I don't find this approach useful for the purposes of investing in airlines, because many of the long term assumptions being made are poorly founded, and overly determinant on the outcome. Therefore i rarely take notice of this analyst. I prefer a multiples based approach using medium term analysis from the bottom up - i.e forecast the P&L. Anyway to tackle his specific view -in my opinion AIR has sufficient competitive advantages to over the cycle achieve average ROIC above WACC, and over the next few years growth will see both capital and ROIC rise nicely. Lots of cash also suppresses ROIC, so investing in productive assets (fleet), and in efficiency (technology), will see returns increase. This should come through in the stocks valuation over time.

I respect the work Marcus does, but am surprised by his recent note. He cites slowing earnings growth and higher fuel prices as justification for reduced conviction/upside. I track the price of fuel closely and have seen no material increase. Singjet continues to trade around c$120 USD per barrel, which supports my model input of $130 per barrel (into wing cost). I have a bloomberg terminal but you can use this to watch the price if you want to: http://www.iata.org/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/Pages/price-development.aspx

On his point about slowing earnings growth I would say hmm! After all AIR had 155% increase in FY13 and on track for 30% in FY14, clearly that is not sustainable. However I actually think FY15 could be better than FY14 growth (maybe 30-40%), after that it will be lower (maybe mid teens). Combined with a high dividend, and improving free cash flow (medium term) that is a pretty compelling story to me, and yet the stock is trading sub 9x earnings, and attributing no value to a $400m stake in VAH.

Given the recent fall a cynic might suggest he is reacting to short term volatility and concern, something patient long term investors should avoid doing - if you chose to be a TA trader that's your prerogative, but for mine investing is about careful thinking and analysis, then backing up you ideas with large investments.

The final operating stats for the FY14 year are out this week - a model update for you all to enjoy will follow in a few weeks time.

-mod

[couta1]

Get a grip people and read my post #1322 simply a response to gv1s post about the price dropping to $1.50,others then kept this going, must be time to take a few weeks off the forum I think,have a nice week:cool:

[Beagle]

modamdm - Nice post, thanks. People are paying really stretched PE's, (circa 35) for certain sectors such as the retirement sector which don't really have any better growth profile than AIR in my opinion.
What some seem to have forgotten is yes while its true we have an aging demographic that will be looking to fill retirement homes en-masse we also have a massive baby boomer population coming up to 65 who are wealthy and want to travel A LOT, myself included.

[skid]

Me too--off again in 10 days again(Thailand this time with Thai air,which I quite like) It would be interesting to know if AIRs other routes are as full as the Vancouver-Auckland.
Couts--I probably should have kept my mouth shut--Your ''beating the nutters into submission'' came on the back of hearing that 70 palistinian children have been killed so far (collateral damage?) caught me in one of those moods--apologies for straying off topic..

[arc]

time:16:22 325,000 @ 202.5
time: 16:26 300,000 @ 202.5

Seller exiting with (202.5 / 195) 3.84% profit in one day.
...they may be expecting a fall_back
.

[Goldstein]

It would be interesting to know if AIRs other routes are as full as the Vancouver-Auckland.
.

I travelled the AKL -> LAX route a couple of weeks ago. Plane full. Not much Isle room in those 777's down in cattle-class.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/seat-map-boeing-777-300

I liked those nice roomy 747's of old. You could even have a game of cricket with your bread roll down the isle.

[Beagle]

Nice big blue candle with positive cover of past few weeks declines. $1.90 looking like the near term floor right now. Looking to break the 10 day MA @ $2.06 for further gains upcoming to 30 day MA @ $2.16. Charts still looking a bit sick but should pick up soon if this plays out :)

Disc - yup, still holding! And bought more today. Couldn't help myself :p

I tried to buy more today, got beaten at the open and pulled a sour puss all day and wouldn't up my ante from $196.5, sometimes being obstinate doesn't pay :sleep:

[brend]

AKL-YVR is certainly a route that's suited to the 787 and I too would love to see that aircraft scheduled on that service. Perhaps later flying on from YVR to a European destination such as FRA? I'd hesitate to create another LHR link albeit via Canada. I think most likely, once more aircraft arrive Air NZ will adhere to their original plan of one further North American destination such as ORD or DEN.

I wonder whether the Spaceseat will ever make an appearance on the 787? Personally I like that seat much better than the standard premium economy offering, but perhaps the floor area it consumes in the aircraft adversely affects yields?

The Dreamliner won't be fitted with the space seat.

The spaceseat will remain on the 773 as these planes fly the US London routes and demand is there for this type of seating.

The 787 is targeted towards Asia, less demand for premium seating.

Airnz are currently fitting out their 772 fleet and will be very similar to the 787 layout. Somehow they are going to add an extra seat in each economy row.

[arc]

Nice big blue candle with positive cover of past few weeks declines. $1.90 looking like the near term floor right now. Looking to break the 10 day MA @ $2.06 for further gains upcoming to 30 day MA @ $2.16. Charts still looking a bit sick but should pick up soon if this plays out :)

Disc - yup, still holding! And bought more today. Couldn't help myself :p

Good move Moosie
.
I will be watching the trend like a hawk, There could be a reversal coming?... or not.
I see a 68K block waiting at 205, action might plateau there for a couple of hours... or it might just steamroller straight through.?

If there is I expect a deceleration delta on volume and price movements, and potentially the reappearance of those abnormal small volume trades at below average price.
For me that will be time to exit and wait for the trough to bottom again.

[Beagle]

Sorry Roger, I couldn't help myself with them going so cheap. Somebody had to get the ball rolling this morning! :)

You cheeky bugger, you owe me a beer.

[skid]

The Dreamliner won't be fitted with the space seat.

The spaceseat will remain on the 773 as these planes fly the US London routes and demand is there for this type of seating.

The 787 is targeted towards Asia, less demand for premium seating.

Airnz are currently fitting out their 772 fleet and will be very similar to the 787 layout. Somehow they are going to add an extra seat in each economy row.

That sucks---the montreal-vancouver domestic had more leg room that the Vancouver -Auckland international--I felt sorry for the tall and old people--(it gets pretty bad when you cant bend down to get the pen you dropped)

[Beagle]

The Dreamliner won't be fitted with the space seat.

The spaceseat will remain on the 773 as these planes fly the US London routes and demand is there for this type of seating.

The 787 is targeted towards Asia, less demand for premium seating.

Airnz are currently fitting out their 772 fleet and will be very similar to the 787 layout. Somehow they are going to add an extra seat in each economy row.

I have to say as a big tall guy that AIR are really pushing it with some of their fleet with what people can tolerate on a long haul flight. Seat width on the 787 is 17.2 inches, (industry standard is 18 inches) which is how they'll be fitting in an extra seat on the 777-200 refit, and seat pitch is only 32 inches which is pretty tight for a long haul flight for tall people.

[winner69]

Maybe more practicable for you Roger

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2014/jul/17/airbus-saddle-seat-future-cheap-flights

[Hoop]

Good move Moosie
.
I will be watching the trend like a hawk, There could be a reversal coming?... or not.
I see a 68K block waiting at 205, action might plateau there for a couple of hours... or it might just steamroller straight through.?

If there is I expect a deceleration delta on volume and price movements, and potentially the reappearance of those abnormal small volume trades at below average price.
For me that will be time to exit and wait for the trough to bottom again.

Hi Arc..
Haven't heard the word Delta on ST for a long time..Are you using Welles Wilder's TA?

[Beagle]

Maybe more practicable for you Roger

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2014/jul/17/airbus-saddle-seat-future-cheap-flights

OMG that is truly heinous. Its one thing to kneecap tall passengers in cattle class but I will never submit to that form of torture. I must say from my accountants point of view these new planes are very well configured but on the other hand at what point do passengers start to get rebellious and simply fly the airline that provides the most space ?

[arc]

Hi Arc..
Haven't heard the word Delta on ST for a long time..Are you using Welles Wilder's TA?

Hello Hoop
I have a telecoms-engineering/electronics/computer-networks background. Thinking in slope deltas and differentials sort of comes naturally.
I am a newbie to the trading game. Reading a lot and experimenting with developing some AI software.
I will have to google Welles Wilder TA

Edit: Found http://www.traderslog.com/welles-wilder/
Indicators are an interesting topic.
Do we have a section here devoted to discussing them?

[Robomo]

I am disappointed at AirNZ's decision to pack people in like sardines - 10 abreast in the 777 with 32 inch pitch is very tight on a 12 hours flight. I'm 187cm tall so I would find that intolerable. Fortunately I can usually upgrade to PE.

In the latest issue of Australian Aviation magazine Christopher Luxon had a several page interview about Air NZ. He made the point that Air NZ was about people, rather than the hardware. Well, if you are going to pack them in Easyjet style then you are going to get a lot of disappointed customers and that does not sound like an airline that cares more about customers than the hardware.

Given that the average load factor is 84% I thought it would be better to have 10% less seats with 90% load factor. I know it does not quite work out like that but the comments that passengers make about their travels do influence others. Reputation is everything. There might be short-term gain using the sardine approach but it will come back back to bite the company.

[slimwin]

What pitch do most Airlines offer in economy?

[tobo]

jetstar is with the tightest group at 30
bottom 25% are 30 or 31
only the top 25% are above 32
top 20% are 34 or 35
36 and 37 is rare (in Economy)

i 'm no expert - i googled
http://www.seatguru.com/charts/longhaul_economy.php

[skid]

I am disappointed at AirNZ's decision to pack people in like sardines - 10 abreast in the 777 with 32 inch pitch is very tight on a 12 hours flight. I'm 187cm tall so I would find that intolerable. Fortunately I can usually upgrade to PE.

In the latest issue of Australian Aviation magazine Christopher Luxon had a several page interview about Air NZ. He made the point that Air NZ was about people, rather than the hardware. Well, if you are going to pack them in Easyjet style then you are going to get a lot of disappointed customers and that does not sound like an airline that cares more about customers than the hardware.

Given that the average load factor is 84% I thought it would be better to have 10% less seats with 90% load factor. I know it does not quite work out like that but the comments that passengers make about their travels do influence others. Reputation is everything. There might be short-term gain using the sardine approach but it will come back back to bite the company.

Totally agree---On the 14hr flight from Vancouver we were packed in just like you say.
Add to that ,that the ventilation was not working properly(It was like a winter storm for the first 5 hrs--the wife is now sick)
I have to say -I was expecting more of our national carrier.--The stewardess were good,but it sucks when your long haul is more cramped than the domestic flight taken prior.

Im taking Thai air (economy) in a week and I can update on the comparison if its of interest.

[Beagle]

Airlines caught between a rock and a hard place ?
People want heaps of room and the cheapest flight.

[couta1]

Stops got hit today, I'm out with a slight loss. Momentum just not there anymore and charts still looking ugly. Ah well! :)
You should have waited and grabbed yourself a nice divvy :cool:

[Schrodinger]

Money to be made elsewhere matey. Double hit with the Kiwi falling hard and being in AIZ, not waiting around for more of the same. Set some pretty tight stops to protect capital anyways, was just a place to put the money before next big move. Onwards and upwards (elsewhere!). :)

Parking money in an Airline stock and hoping to protect capital? You should probably look at stocks like NZX etc. I parked it there for a few months and came out with 6% gain. Main reason was I thought the NZX had some upside and it isn't volatile. More than happy to park it one of the 4 banks stock also.

[Zaphod]

I am disappointed at AirNZ's decision to pack people in like sardines - 10 abreast in the 777 with 32 inch pitch is very tight on a 12 hours flight. I'm 187cm tall so I would find that intolerable. Fortunately I can usually upgrade to PE.


There are plenty of airlines with 10 across seating; Air NZ are trailing the pack quite considerably in adopting this seating confirmation. I have heard from a colleague in the airline industry that of airlines who placed new 777 orders around 75% have opted for 10 across in economy.

You might feel packed in and have every right to complain about that, however what would you say if the nine across seating configuration was retained by fares increased to compensate?

It's a tough call for any airline to make.

[Beagle]

Planes nearly full wherever he flies in N.Z.
Reserve bank are absolutely mad putting up interest rates again, many of the provinces are already struggling.
Real estate coming off its peak.

...Comments from the GM of one of the Australian owned real estate companies in a meeting I had with him this morning.

[psychic]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11298937

US Airlines flying high on better earnings

"I think it's a watershed moment in the airline industry where you have the largest four carriers returning cash to shareholders," said United Continental chief financial officer John Rainey.

"This speaks volumes about how this industry has changed, how it's de-risked the business, and the sustainability of the earnings going forward."

[Beagle]

Current price is turning into a real disappointment for me. I see really good value at $192.5 but soon if the recent decline continues I will have to face the awful decision as to whether to action my own stop loss.
Is this market bloody frustrating or what !!!!

[sommelier]

Moosie is more bearish than HSBC on the NZD..

Zero mention of dairy or housing-OCR relationship means HSBC is proably wrong.

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/71117/hsbc-sees-kiwi-dollar-challenging-parity-aussie-dollar-years-end

[couta1]

Current price is turning into a real disappointment for me. I see really good value at $192.5 but soon if the recent decline continues I will have to face the awful decision as to whether to action my own stop loss.
Is this market bloody frustrating or what !!!!
Very tough mate but what's that old saying the market transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. There's always TUA looks pretty immune to the downturn shame I sold mine last year

[RTM]

Went to town and did the shopping and when I came home owned AIR at 192.
Ah well...fingers crossed, at least there is a dividend.
Good luck all.
RTM

[see weed]

Went to town and did the shopping and when I came home owned AIR at 192.
Ah well...fingers crossed, at least there is a dividend.
Good luck all.
RTM

I went to town two years ago and said to my dad that the govt. is't going to sell AIR for 90c when it's worth more like 1.50 . So started buying in at the bottom of the down turn ...1.03 .89, .88,.90,.88,.845,.875, then sold them at $1. Then thought sh.t they are still going up , so bought them back again at 1.04. This is crazy, then sold at mid 1.30's and bought Snakk. Big mistake.

[arc]

Ive been talking to a few friends in the US, they say that HFT (high frequency trading) screwed the market and it often moved without reason due to the hft-algos and the programming logic inherent in them. Some guys from the US got contracts to install hft in Aussie, its in all the Bank/brokers and most of its Private Brokers, Im assuming we now have it here... goodbye logic.

[Goldstein]

Current price is turning into a real disappointment for me. I see really good value at $192.5 but soon if the recent decline continues I will have to face the awful decision as to whether to action my own stop loss.
Is this market bloody frustrating or what !!!!

The NZX seems like hard work at the moment. I can't remember which thread it was on but Hoop alluded to this with a chart of the NZX50.

[Goldstein]

Ive been talking to a few friends in the US, they say that HFT (high frequency trading) screwed the market and it often moved without reason due to the hft-algos and the programming logic inherent in them. Some guys from the US got contracts to install hft in Aussie, its in all the Bank/brokers and most of its Private Brokers, Im assuming we now have it here... goodbye logic.

I've had some exposure to a company implementing micro trading strategies in the US. They only implement the strategies IF there is nothing else going on. I.e., anything that takes the market outside the training data set that the algorithms are constructed from and they will halt the automatic trading process.

I think there are other reasons behind AIR's SP decline.

[skid]

Thier 777s have 10 seats in a row--Thais 777s have 9 seats--As a customer flying AIR that sucks--but i guess the real question is -is it good or bad for the bottom line?----Meanwhile,planes dropping out of the sky is starting to be a slight worry.

[brend]

Thier 777s have 10 seats in a row--Thais 777s have 9 seats--As a customer flying AIR that sucks--but i guess the real question is -is it good or bad for the bottom line?----Meanwhile,planes dropping out of the sky is starting to be a slight worry.

777-300 ten abreast
777-200 current 9abreast, refit will take them to 10 abreast

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-to-upgrade-entire-boeing-777-200-fleet-this-year

[Beagle]

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=AIR.NZ

According to the average of 7 analysts Air will earn 23.33 cps after tax in 2015.
Taking into account buying now at $1.91 is cum an estimated 7 cps final dividend, (my estimate), effectivly people are paying ~ $1.84 or only 7.8 times 2014/5 year's earnings...this for a company with growth and expansion plans and a fleet of new 787-9 dreamliners coming that were acquired on extremly favourable terms with Air as a launch customer...go figure.
I think its time for the company to consider buying back its own shares.

[brend]

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=AIR.NZ

According to the average of 7 analysts Air will earn 23.33 cps after tax in 2015.
Taking into account buying now at $1.91 is cum an estimated 7 cps final dividend, (my estimate), effectivly people are paying ~ $1.84 or only 7.8 times 2014/5 year's earnings...this for a company with growth and expansion plans and a fleet of new 787-9 dreamliners coming that were acquired on extremly favourable terms with Air as a launch customer...go figure.
I think its time for the company to consider buying back its own shares.

to use the cash they have in the bank?

Roger could you ask what would be the reason for AIRNZ to lease planes than buying them outright? surely if they had the cash...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10274166/Air-NZ-to-lease-five-Airbus

[Beagle]

Hi brend,

I'll have to do some more research but I believe the company was buying its shares back a year or two ago when the earnings ratio's weren't quite as compelling as they are now.

Air have always used a mixed financing model to make their capital acquisitions. That article infers that they'll own the majority of those new Airbus A320 / 321 neo's. Leasing gives access to funding at extremely low long term American interest rates and provides a guaranteed future realisable value. They've traditionally used leasing more for wide bodied aircraft, (777 and 747-400).
Its a highly capital intensive industry. If you'd like I am happy to post an analysts briefing where they recently outlined their ownership v leasing structure as it stood at that time.

I very nearly bought some more at the close of trading today...not quite sure this recent belting has completely run its course...but it must be very close to being over, (gut feel).

[arc]

I've had some exposure to a company implementing micro trading strategies in the US. They only implement the strategies IF there is nothing else going on. I.e., anything that takes the market outside the training data set that the algorithms are constructed from and they will halt the automatic trading process.

I think there are other reasons behind AIR's SP decline.

I agree with your sentiment Goldstein. There is definitely more than one agent at play here, algos just muddy the water a bit more than usual, but their strength is also their greatest weakness. Its the tracking and delineating of them that's giving me a hard time.

[Beagle]

This will be an interesting week. We will have the June operating statistics out very shortly. Will we see the downtrend stop considering its end of month on Thursday, perhaps some institutional support to help with book squaring at the end of the month and its less than one month till the annual result announcement. Friday saw 3 times the average daily volume change hands.

[Goldstein]

This will be an interesting week. We will have the June operating statistics out very shortly. Will we see the downtrend stop considering its end of month on Thursday, perhaps some institutional support to help with book squaring at the end of the month and its less than one month till the annual result announcement. Friday saw 3 times the average daily volume change hands.

I suspect the selling was triggered by Wheeler's announcement and the perception the NZD has peaked. The devaluing dollar would make waiting for the divvy less attractive to offshore investors.

[winner69]

I suspect the selling was triggered by Wheeler's announcement and the perception the NZD has peaked. The devaluing dollar would make waiting for the divvy less attractive to offshore investors.

Will never invest in AIR though I admire what they have done and are doing .... just that if I did it would guarantee a crash in the shareprice just to prove never invest in airlines theory correct.

Still follow and one thing over the years I have noticed is that the major cyclical swings in the NZD seem to be mirrored in the AIR shareprice

SO if moosie prediction of a collapse in the NZD then look for AIR at much lower price than today

[Kojak]

I suspect the selling was triggered by Wheeler's announcement and the perception the NZD has peaked. The devaluing dollar would make waiting for the divvy less attractive to offshore investors.

Might also have something to do with this
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/virgins-tigerair-australia-losing-2-million-a-week-20140724-zwhn5.html

as AIR owns 26% of Virgin Australia which owns 60% of of Tiger Australia. It may be bringing back memories of what happened when AIR owned Ansett Australia. VAH and AIR chart look fairly similar for the last month or so

[Beagle]

Will never invest in AIR though I admire what they have done and are doing .... just that if I did it would guarantee a crash in the shareprice just to prove never invest in airlines theory correct.

Still follow and one thing over the years I have noticed is that the major cyclical swings in the NZD seem to be mirrored in the AIR shareprice

SO if moosie prediction of a collapse in the NZD then look for AIR at much lower price than today

You've been watching re-runs of Wall Street with Gordon Gekko haven't you :)
Air is trading very close to book value now and I think the market has already written off the investment in VAH, certainly the only reason I can see why they invested in the first place was from a route expansion perspective.

[sb9]

Hi Guys, newbie here.

Got a small parcel of AIR last week @1.95, tempted to top up after seeing the recent downtrend. Can someone suggest if it has bottomed out yet or has it got some more way to fall. cheers.

[Beagle]

Hi sb9, welcome to the forum. The downtrend, now well established, is concern. I suspect overseas sellers and the flood of new IPO's are creating a vortex where its difficult to get lift in the short term. There is real value in the shares at this level, (unlike the vast majority of the rest of the market), and this is a fantastic opportunity but short term, who knows which direction it will take...

[Zaphod]

Hopefully the upcoming FY announcements in August will break the downtrend, however that is still a few weeks away. The SP is very close to my stop loss and close to breaching the 200 day MA, yet there is significant upside to this stock. What a conundrum!

[Beagle]

Hopefully the upcoming FY announcements in August will break the downtrend, however that is still a few weeks away. The SP is very close to my stop loss and close to breaching the 200 day MA, yet there is significant upside to this stock. What a conundrum!

It sure is:confused:

[couta1]

It sure is:confused:
Not if your long mate:cool:

[Goldstein]

Hi Guys, newbie here.

Got a small parcel of AIR last week @1.95, tempted to top up after seeing the recent downtrend. Can someone suggest if it has bottomed out yet or has it got some more way to fall. cheers.

Hi sb9. I'm not a guru, but to my mind you have already caught a falling knife once with the purchase at $1.95. If you have a look at the chart over the last few months you can see that the lows have been getting lower. From a technical perspective this means, crystal ball aside, we haven't seen the bottom yet. My suggestion would be to hold fire until you are more certain the bottom has been reached.

I guess try to find a reason for the purchase other than 'surely it can't go lower'. Note that I'm only offering you advice from my previous mistakes :)

[sb9]

Thanks Roger, surely this is much better stock at this level I think, will wait and see.

[sb9]

Would say medium to long term holder moosie

[sb9]

Thanks Goldstein, will keep a close eye, valuable advice, cheers

[Hoop]

I was technically late to get in at 1.70 but was technically chucked out at 2.14 when buyers could be found during the steep daily fall through the supports..
Geeez ..another one of my favourite stocks gone out of my portiofolio...40% cash now..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Air30062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Air30062014.png.html)
Your mad hoop. While we can't predict the future we can make educated guesses, and forecasts. Doing this based on fundamental analysis is far more likely to be successful than predicting the future based on short term price movements or patterns you see on charts. Your likely to get whipsawed and incur higher trading costs as well.

Roger, keep loading :) - my truck is so full! As for turbulence AIR is remarkably stable - in fact on on our risk reports it has a beta of under 0.6. While a c.9% fall seems alot, its a remarkably steady stock! Usually just goes up!

Updated chart from 30th June 2014.
Great company it might be but it is technically broken everything now including the EMA200....what a mess...Lets hope the EMA200 break is the margin of error and it will revert back and be called a severe bull market correction...If it breaks 1.83 support it will be hard not to call this event a cyclic reversal from bull to bear.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR28072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR28072014.png.html)


Hi Guys, newbie here.

Got a small parcel of AIR last week @1.95, tempted to top up after seeing the recent downtrend. Can someone suggest if it has bottomed out yet or has it got some more way to fall. cheers.

Good purchase at a support level $1.95 (where an investor should buy) ...pity the support broke...now it is a resistance level:(,

No-one knows where the bottom is...If we all did we all would be richer than Buffett.
I 'm glad to see your later post saying you will wait and see what happens before purchasing more..

When investing the simple commonsense approach is often if not nearly always overlooked........To make money it is much easier doing so by investing in confirmed up trending shares rather than investing in down trending shares...

...Now for the double barrel human nature paradox question... Why do investors find it so easy to buy into down trending shares and continue to accumulate by buying more and more risking bigger and bigger losses????...and why do investors find it so hard to buy and accumulate in up trending shares and will often wait until those shares drop down in price before accumulating more thereby missing out on potential capital gain on the rise up????

[winner69]

Hi Guys, newbie here.

Got a small parcel of AIR last week @1.95, tempted to top up after seeing the recent downtrend. Can someone suggest if it has bottomed out yet or has it got some more way to fall. cheers.

Small parcel at 195

Top up with a bigger parcel (2 times as big) at 187 say

Average price 190

So when get back 195 you making money

The power of averaging down

Me - wait for an uptrend to form. But then you might miss a bargain.

What a conundrum

Sb9 only you can work out what to do. It's your money after all

[couta1]

I don't really give a toss what the charts say sitting on an average of $1.98 happy to pick up the upcoming divvy and go long, Bears having picnic all over NZX at the moment and plenty of uncertainty coming from world events including aircraft events etc.Disc-Holding equals 8% of portfolio total.

[skid]

Couts,you seem to have alot of shares that you are holding onto while they drop--Are you sure your betting on the right strategy?
Might be an idea to brush up on TA to mix with your FA course of action.
If the bears are having a picnic why not watch them for a while.
Selling into the red is not easy,but it does not necessarily confirm your loss--you may be able to buy back in at a lower price--just sayin--its not always best to hold long term.

[Joshuatree]

Shortterm Ebola is more of concern; one to watch closely; its only a flight away.

[skid]

and in terms of FA--I have just flown with them and i would seriously reconsider,before flying again,if I had the choice of going with an airline with a better seating arrangement--Having 10 seats in each row on the 777s (as opposed to 9) was a real killer--I shudder to think what it must have been like for big or old people.
To me it seems beneath the national carrier (guess I was expecting more) Its not like they have super cheap prices or many mega sales.
There are lots of things that make a successful airline but this could catch up with them--Maybe they know that the Auckland -Vancouver route is practically a monopoly--It would be interesting to know how this fares on other routes

[winner69]

227 passengers getting extended stay in Honolulu - nice

Sam Morgan amongst them .... so even the rich and famous can't avoid technical difficulties

[couta1]

I know the feeling Roger and thanks for your honesty. Will be buying a parcel on behalf of my wife today,her small portfolio is in excellent shape and is strictly buy and hold, I've managed hers far better than mine,she likes those divvys coming in:cool:

[Leftfield]

When its confirmed to have hit the bottom from a TA perspective I will double down on my remaining 60% holding taking it to 120% of my original shareholding.
That's the way I'm handling this conundrum and I hope my honesty in acknowledging mistiming and losses helps others reflect on their own risk mitigation strategies.

Roger, Appreciate you sharing…. we all make mistakes, and by sharing, we can all learn from these.

Disc… currently nibbling away (my strategy is to purchase/sell in nibbles rather than large chunks ) ;-)

[arc]

10.32am Bounce in progress 187 -> 190.

[Hoop]

It is a rather big question mark over why the Fundamentals and Technicals are at such a wide opposing odds...This is a stock I thought I'd be in for a much longer term than I was..I expected a year or more not 6 months..
I've googled around trying to qualify the technical bust up..but I can't find much...
There is news of China Airlines upping their next summer flights downunder but surely that wouldn't affect AIR shareprice to any great extent ..would it?

Modandm you are the AIR expert on this thread + others? (Thxs Roger for your honest post)..your thoughts since your last post and AIR 10% cheaper..also another question..are there any rats or mice nibbling around the edges of the overall airline market..much appreciated (that's if you are still speaking to me....:mellow:)

[noodles]

It is a rather big question mark over why the Fundamentals and Technicals are at such a wide opposing odds...This is a stock I thought I'd be in for a much longer term than I was..I expected a year or more not 6 months..
I've googled around trying to qualify the technical bust up..but I can't find much...
There is news of China Airlines upping their next summer flights downunder but surely that wouldn't affect AIR shareprice to any great extent ..would it?

Modandm you are the AIR expert on this thread + others? (Thxs Roger for your honest post)..your thoughts since your last post and AIR 10% cheaper..also another question..are there any rats or mice nibbling around the edges of the overall airline market..much appreciated (that's if you are still speaking to me....:mellow:)

It could be just plain old profit taking. AIR has had a great year of gains. It is still well above the government selldown.

[Hoop]

It could be just plain old profit taking. AIR has had a great year of gains. It is still well above the government selldown.
Yep...I assumed that too as I expected a healthy correction was due...but I did not expect a "correction" to be of this magnitude... so much so that you would question whether the correction is in fact a reversal

[psychic]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/253217

First thoughts - hard to see anything too negative in that...

[Beagle]

Air didn't do well in the recent airline of the year awards and Air China are flying here with Dreamliners already but neither of these factors would cause a price correction of 18% like we've had. Its hard to figure. I can't see anything alarming in the June operating stat's. Domestic load is down a bit, but nothing too significant.

[bryndlefly]

the sharemarket baffles me sometimes. (ok most of the time). AIR has a a dividend coming up, Forsyth Barr analysts expect the company to lift profit 29 percent http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-nz-shares-fall-ahead-earnings-season-air-nz-falls-3-month-low-bd-159899 ...and the result is lots of selling pressure?

[skid]

Are other airlines down as well? There is alot of air disaster fear around ATM --maybe it is being over anaylized.

[Jaa]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/253217

First thoughts - hard to see anything too negative in that...

Domestic looking a bit weaker after a large increase in capacity not entirely matched by demand, through upguaging of aircraft. As the domestic yields are slightly up and not down doubt it is much of a concern.

AIR is an airline and susceptible to many of the world's problems. Plane crashes, war, disease outbreaks etc.

The warning signs of the price getting a bit toppy were on this thread, with lots of new posters appearing. Both of the flighty and first time poster kinds.

[skid]

There seem to be quite a few NZ share charts that are looking a bit similar. Perhaps the whole market needed a bit of a ''cool down''

[biker]

I wonder if the market is looking at AIR's exposure to VAH and thinking about the increased risk of an airline owning 26% of another airline over which it has no direct control, apart from a board member.
VAH has had some negative press of late re Tiger and it my be that the Tiger will take a little longer to tame than planned.
I have taken some profits on VAH recently, reducing my exposure until VAH can show Tiger is under control and VAH is making progress towards some profits.
The VAH share price has been hanging on quite well but may struggle for a while to maintain 40c .
Some positive news from VAH could send them both back in the right direction quite quickly.

I also agree with the profit taking senario. Some good gains have been made on AIR, even on the Govt sell down shares and maybe some of the big buyers are happy to take some shares and profits off the table.
I can't see any company specific reason for the AIR weakness apart from perceived VAH risk.

Or not.......

[dingoNZ]

Are other airlines down as well? There is alot of air disaster fear around ATM --maybe it is being over anaylized.

AIR was trading down for about 5 session before the crash. I took the last month to pick up a few more

[winner69]

I know planes break down and that there can be delays but the 3 days in Honolulu for 227 passengers (70 did make it back earlier on an another airline) doesn't seem to have been very managed by your airline

Guilty as - so here is $1000 for each of you as an apology

Methinks each of your shareholders should send a message to the affected - even it just says yes our ourline did stuff up badly and I am not proud to be a shareholder in these circumstances

TA 'shareholders' don't need to apologise .... they give diddly squat about what the company that the squiggley line represent actually does

A little story can get a lot media coverage eh

[Beagle]

Yeah mate its a bit of a shocker but too their credit they've made a credible compensation offer and are investigating how to improve their event management systems going forward.
It would have been a bit freaky to be in a plane with a decision to abort well into the take-off run :scared:

[Joshuatree]

Worth keeping up to date with this too imo. Outbreak described as bad very bad.

The facts about the worst ebola outbreak in history (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stuff.co.nz%2Fworld%2Fafrica% 2F10323345%2FThe-facts-about-the-worst-ebola-outbreak-in-history&ei=wFzXU4DBDM7j8AXSl4CwDQ&usg=AFQjCNEYjuMVWyDHxtZV_omsm3uNxrpZ7Q&bvm=bv.71778758,d.dGc)

More than 670 lives lost atp. Not good when panicking people blamed Doctors Without Borders for the out break which has arrived in Mega City, Lagos

[psychic]

Looks like we are off again..? Perhaps it was just one of those touch landing exercises, the sma200 being the runway... :)

[skid]

Worth keeping up to date with this too imo. Outbreak described as bad very bad.

The facts about the worst ebola outbreak in history (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stuff.co.nz%2Fworld%2Fafrica% 2F10323345%2FThe-facts-about-the-worst-ebola-outbreak-in-history&ei=wFzXU4DBDM7j8AXSl4CwDQ&usg=AFQjCNEYjuMVWyDHxtZV_omsm3uNxrpZ7Q&bvm=bv.71778758,d.dGc)

More than 670 lives lost atp. Not good when panicking people blamed Doctors Without Borders for the out break which has arrived in Mega City, Lagos

Man ,thats scarey--I guess the only positive thing is that its in countries with a population that dont take air travel as much.

[couta1]

Looks like we are off again..? Perhaps it was just one of those touch landing exercises, the sma200 being the runway... :)
Patience and sitting tight can pay off aye:cool:

[sb9]

Nice to see inching close to that magic $2 mark...

[winner69]

Luxon says he is accountable - are you shareholders going to hold him to account?

Methinks the $227,000 grand apology should come out of Luxons bonus - good idea?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/10328117/Air-NZ-staff-told-to-lift-their-game

[sharp]

Any predictions or inside word on the final dividend for Sept?

5.5 to 6 cps a fair guestimate?

[Beagle]

7 cps plus special divvy of 10 cps to mark commencement of 75th year of operations :)

[brend]

7 cps plus special divvy of 10 cps to mark commencement of 75th year of operations :)

:) would like to see that lease ownership doc you mentioned last week.

Have you (or anyone) been to a shareholders meeting previously?

I see that's its held annually around September?? any nice shareholder perks in going?

[Beagle]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/195586.pdf

Details regarding leased v owned aircraft are in there. Well worth a good read.

Nice refreshments after the AGM...don't be counting on a shareholder voucher for a free scenic ride in their new Dreamliner...shame really, that would be nice :)

If you can't be bothered reading the whole thing, scroll towards the bottom and read the CFO's report and look at the funding mix pie charts for the various types of aircraft.

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/195586.pdf

Details regarding leased v owned aircraft are in there. Well worth a good read.

Nice refreshments after the AGM...don't be counting on a shareholder voucher for a free scenic ride in their new Dreamliner...shame really, that would be nice :)

If you can't be bothered reading the whole thing, scroll towards the bottom and read the CFO's report and look at the funding mix pie charts for the various types of aircraft.

the first slide in, the good to great one, would be laughed at 227 customers if they saw it

Obviously a lot of work to be done ....AIR dont seem to have the same magic that was there when Rob was around

Rob would have just flown another plane to Honolulu to bring them home

At least hey arranged for the rich ad famous to get on another airline

[Beagle]

Yes mate that unfortunate incident got a lot of press coverage because bad news sells newspapers.
It does sound like a number of things went wrong and communication could have been a lot better.
From years of owning highly complex Riviera launches with multiple engines and systems and dealing with family owned aviation operators in a professional capacity I know boats and aircraft are incredibly complex and complicated machines and **** happens a lot and you can't always get the parts you want when you want them. The 767 planes are starting to age which obviously leads to more issues. Those fancy new Dreamliner aircraft should have been here years ago to replace those aging 767's which means the 767 issue should never have happened. AIr haven't disclosed what compensation package they agreed too with Boeing for the years of 787-9 delays but I hope it was meaningful and I would assume it would be vastly greater than this relatively minor matter.
You know some people have made a meal of this but what about Mr and Mrs Joe average flying economy with their 3 kids. $5,000 compensation and a few days extra in a warm paradise with your hotel paid for, life is so harsh, I wish I could be so fortunate :)

I am sure heads will roll over this but perhaps we should move on...its not like they lost a $20m engine just after lifting off is it.

[winner69]

And no doubt it will happen all over again sometime

Happens all the time to all airlines eh ..... just need to do better next time and hope that the culture within AIR is not going downhill.

[psychic]

Crikey - bit more turbulence today! Is this some insto shaking the tree again?

[RTM]

Looks like traders setting up a downward channel formation and trading the range. This could go on for quite awhile. I'd stay away unless you are trading it and know the ranges involved...

You reckon Moosie ? What about buying, popping them in the bottom draw for a while...and enjoying the dividend ?
Would that work ?

[arc]

I tend to agree with Moosie.
Either trade the trends which are looking like about 38 to 80 hour spreads and somewhere around 3.5% to 5% rise's over the last few waves before profit takers hit, or just wait for some stability to emerge... (my personal conjecture on this is we may see even less stability in the market due to HFT algos and their operational modes of taking profits on 0.5c -1c rises, achieved through high volumes)

Have a very close look at the price movements at close on each day and compare to the open on the next..... interesting diversions happening.

I see better Divs at HLG or MLN or some of those types of companies.

Just commenting, not trying to give advice.

[RTM]

By the time I decided to buy....it would be the time to sell. And vica versa.
Good luck guys.



Momentum trading is way too much fun (and way more profitable when you get it right!)

[RTM]

Thanks Arc. Interesting.
I'd far rather own AIR with their reasonable dividend and some opportunity for capital growth, than either HLG or MLN. Agree there are other options for higher dividends, but the two you cite are not for me.
Each to their own.

Cheers
RTM

[arc]

RTM

Yes, Its the Capital growth + Dividends that makes a difference.
The growth aspect is harder to find lately... lots of volatility and as some mention here, it might be time for the market to cool-down. The stronger US economy announcement has ceratinly driven the NZ$ down

Looks like another sell-down has kicked in, before opening time.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11300865

Herald making an effort to balance out their negative recent AIR articles or has Megan actually found some observation skills ?
Of course she couldn't help make comments about hair and hands...(oh well I suppose 50% of the population might have been interested in that).

[winner69]

Your employees really letting your company down

Air NZ culture seems to have changed for the worse since Rob left

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11302700

[Beagle]

I don't think you can draw conclusions from one or two isolated incidents but I agree that this is a serious situation and its good that Christopher Luxton is personally overseeing the investigation which I hope will be very thorough and if the people responsible don't face serious disciplinary action I'll be demanding to know why not. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest, in fact I expect it, that heads will roll over this.

[psychic]

Your employees really letting your company down

Air NZ culture seems to have changed for the worse since Rob left

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11302700

For what it's worth (didly) the one (long standing) employee I do know had a very different view last we spoke.
Raved about AIR under Luxton, made out Fyfe was a bit of a show pony only.
Just sayin

[slimwin]

Hey psychic. As an employee I can say most people I know prefer Rob. People don't trust Chris yet. I think this will be a defining moment on how the culture goes. If CL goes all 1970's " heads will roll" then I can't see the average kiwi reacting favorably. Better to investigate, look at solutions and educate. This isn't the states and past ceo's have made the mistake of not seeing the point of difference.

[Beagle]

Hey psychic. As an employee I can say most people I know prefer Rob. People don't trust Chris yet. I think this will be a defining moment on how the culture goes. If CL goes all 1970's " heads will roll" then I can't see the average kiwi reacting favorably. Better to investigate, look at solutions and educate. This isn't the states and past ceo's have made the mistake of not seeing the point of difference.

Air New Zealand Crew Too Drunk For Flight - The most popular and lead story on the N.Z. Herald website today
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/airlines/news/article.cfm?c_id=113&objectid=11302893
I find this latest allegation of staff out boozing till the wee small hours deeply disturbing especially in the context of extremely poor, almost non-existent communication to the passengers affected...staff too pissed to bother looking after passengers needs ?
As a shareholder I think if what has been alleged is correct heads need to roll. Its not good enough and if those allegations are proven correct those staff out drunk in breech of their employment terms need to realise they've brought the entire airlines reputation into disrepute. Its one thing for a parts supplier to let the airline down, which in itself is a serious matter but quite another for staff that should be available to come on duty, to be so drunk as to be unable to pilot the aircraft if the plane was made operational again. Many of you guys are extremely well paid and the public and especially shareholders expect better. Staff have had plenty of time for training and education before being put on international routes and should already know better. Either that or clip their wings severely and put them back on the smallest domestic planes at that lower pay grade for a lengthy period of time and perhaps they can pay the $227,000 compensation from their own salaries. Shareholders have a right to expect that this matter is taken extremely seriously and I will personally be making a lot of noise at the AGM if it isn't. Lack of professionalism.... some might even ask, what professionalism ?

The recent incident on the Perth flight was also a bad look for the airline. CL needs to stamp his authority on the company in no uncertain terms or step aside and let someone else do it.
This latest extremely serious incident is most definitely not something that should be soft peddled and a simple slap on the back of the hand with a wet bus ticket simply won't do.

[Dentie]

Hey psychic. As an employee I can say most people I know prefer Rob. People don't trust Chris yet. I think this will be a defining moment on how the culture goes. If CL goes all 1970's " heads will roll" then I can't see the average kiwi reacting favorably. Better to investigate, look at solutions and educate. This isn't the states and past ceo's have made the mistake of not seeing the point of difference.

Your comment about "people don't trust Chris yet" startles me here Slim. I'm wondering whether Chris trusts the employees - especially those highest paid ones who are responsible for getting 200 to 300 travelling kiwi's at once to where they are going - SAFELY! I can't believe these flyboys and girls go out and get pissed - then shortly thereafter think they can competently fly an aircraft at 500 mph with the above amount of kiwi's on board. Total arrogance!

I have been a past shareholder in AIR (not now though) and I liked the way both Ralph Norris and Rob Fyfe smartened the place up into what resembled a professional airline. I am going on that Hawaii flight later this month so I'm hoping you lot have got your sh-t together by then.

[noodles]

It will be party time once they start that direct flight to Denver:t_up:

[Zaphod]

To be fair to both AirNZ and the staff involved, we do not know what the facts are. The statement in the NZHerald article that the staff were trashed and drinking until 5am came from an anonymous source and these claims have not been independently verified. We'll know more about what happened and AirNZ's plans for mitigation later this week once the formal investigation has been completed.

[winner69]

Air New Zealand Crew Too Drunk For Flight - The most popular and lead story on the N.Z. Herald website today
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/airlines/news/article.cfm?c_id=113&objectid=11302893
I find this latest allegation of staff out boozing till the wee small hours deeply disturbing especially in the context of extremely poor, almost non-existent communication to the passengers affected...staff too pissed to bother looking after passengers needs ?
As a shareholder I think if what has been alleged is correct heads need to roll. Its not good enough and if those allegations are proven correct those staff out drunk in breech of their employment terms need to realise they've brought the entire airlines reputation into disrepute. Its one thing for a parts supplier to let the airline down, which in itself is a serious matter but quite another for staff that should be available to come on duty, to be so drunk as to be unable to pilot the aircraft if the plane was made operational again. Many of you guys are extremely well paid and the public and especially shareholders expect better. Staff have had plenty of time for training and education before being put on international routes and should already know better. Either that or clip their wings severely and put them back on the smallest domestic planes at that lower pay grade for a lengthy period of time and perhaps they can pay the $227,000 compensation from their own salaries. Shareholders have a right to expect that this matter is taken extremely seriously and I will personally be making a lot of noise at the AGM if it isn't. Lack of professionalism.... some might even ask, what professionalism ?

The recent incident on the Perth flight was also a bad look for the airline. CL needs to stamp his authority on the company in no uncertain terms or step aside and let someone else do it.
This latest extremely serious incident is most definitely not something that should be soft peddled and a simple slap on the back of the hand with a wet bus ticket simply won't do.

We have heard about these two cases - any more?

And Tiger seem to be a recipe for disaster (besides burning 2m a week) if latest reports like approaching Adelaide it had to do a go around and force a Malaysian flight to abort its takeoff and te other story about being a flight path to Perth such it would have run out fuel if pilots hadn't noticed
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysia-airlines-and-tiger-airways-incident-at-adelaide-airport/story-e6frfq80-1227008476226

[winner69]

Hard to believe that Tiger bleeding $2m a week

If virgin own 60% of Tiger and air own 26% of virgin and if air equity accounting virgin does that mean air are bleeding $0.3m a week ...or doesn't it work that way

[biker]

Interesting to see a lot of outrage and twaddle on this thread at the moment. Might I suggest posters do the following. Research some actual FACTS, don't believe everything you read in the media, realise that Airlines for some reason are prime targets for media beat ups, realise the Tiger go around incident posed no safety risk (the MH aircraft stopping was an air traffic control issue, they, not Tiger, being responsible for separation during a go around) and that the idea of crew being sober enough to fly is laughable. They are always totally and completely sober. 12 hours between drinking and flying doesn't leave alcohol in the system and if there was even a TRACE they would fail a drug and alcohol test, which are conducted regularly and randomly.

Deep breath people

[biker]

Second, they do not conduct breath/drug screening at every stop, so the fact that you say they would instantly pick up on it inherently flawed.

I did not say they would instantly pick up on it.
What I did say was they 'would fail a drug and alcohol test which are conducted regularly and randomly', the inference being that they would be taking a huge risk with their career, and to my knowledge no alcohol or drug test has ever returned positive on the major NZ airline's jet fleets.

[winner69]

I did not say they would instantly pick up on it.
What I did say was they 'would fail a drug and alcohol test which are conducted regularly and randomly', the inference being that they would be taking a huge risk with their career, and to my knowledge no alcohol or drug test has ever returned positive on the major NZ airline's jet fleets.

This employee didn't test positive ....he got caught

Flight attendant hid drugs in uniform jacket

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11298608

[slimwin]

Roger, you probably want to check which crew was reported (by who?) of being too drunk. There would be minimum two full crews there. The inbound and the crew that had to abort. I'm not apologizing for any bad behavior if its proved true. At this stage is a rumor provided to the media.
Up till not long ago I was also an investor in AIR but I don't let the Herald influence my finance decisions.

[winner69]

Hey psychic. As an employee I can say most people I know prefer Rob. People don't trust Chris yet. I think this will be a defining moment on how the culture goes. If CL goes all 1970's " heads will roll" then I can't see the average kiwi reacting favorably. Better to investigate, look at solutions and educate. This isn't the states and past ceo's have made the mistake of not seeing the point of difference.

Interesting

Rob may have been a bit of a show pony but he was a great strategic thinker and although a little lacking on the detail side (hey that's why you have a management team) he was a leader and changed AIR to what it is today. Maybe he was lucky he essentially had only one shareholder.

That change came about clarity of strategy down to the lowest levels. Everybody hopefully knew what they were there for.

Since he departed I'm not too sure what AIR are trying to do.

Communication of strategy is paramount. Have a look at the show pony' presentation in 2005 (top one) and the one Luxon presumably uses (bottom one) when he talks strategy (you can almost tell his background by the format and the words). To be one has clarity, the other is a lot of words. One sort of expresses creativity and innovation, the other educated and formal and to be honest lacks any vitality.

That's my fundamental analysis of AIR for today

[biker]

Great example winner69. Sums it up perfectly.
The first one so much more engaging and 'real'

[Beagle]

Roger, you probably want to check which crew was reported (by who?) of being too drunk. There would be minimum two full crews there. The inbound and the crew that had to abort. I'm not apologizing for any bad behavior if its proved true. At this stage is a rumor provided to the media.
Up till not long ago I was also an investor in AIR but I don't let the Herald influence my finance decisions.

Agreed that we should let the investigation run its course before getting too hot under the collar and it goes without saying that just because something is put into print, it doesn't make it true.
Possibly also worth highlighting that the Herald editor was significantly inconvenienced by this incident and it wouldn't be too hard to take the view that some of his frustration might have found its way into the paper.
Plenty of heat on CL to run a thorough investigation and intense interest in the outcome.

W69 - Agree with other poster above - Go arounds are not a major issue and usually the fault of ATC not the pilot. I suspect some consolidation in the Australian airline industry may be forthcoming as those over-capacity issues seem systemic but not really an issue for AIR because nobody's ascribing any value to their VAH holding in the current SP price and on a fundamental basis AIR is probably the cheapest stock on the NZX.

Just a thought on who's the best CEO. Under whose leadership is the airline about to report an all time record profit...
Interestingly we all have different perspectives, to me the first presentation looks unprofessional and grabbing at ideas with no clearly defined strategy, the other highly professional and clearly defined.
I also found their recent analysts presentation for which I posted a link, highly cohesive, clearly defined and thoroughly professional. I guess if you have a professional background you expect a formal and professional approach.

Disc: added back in to my holding on Friday, seatbelt firmly fastened.

[slimwin]

Cool Roger and agree winner.
But for having to pay out the ex I'd still be in AIR. Plenty of good news to come but always going to be susceptible to the perception of the effects of world events. CHina growth is showing signs of picking up again and this is a target area.

[Beagle]

Cool Roger and agree winner.
But for having to pay out the ex I'd still be in AIR. Plenty of good news to come but always going to be susceptible to the perception of the effects of world events. CHina growth is showing signs of picking up again and this is a target area.

Did the arrival of the first Dreamliner give staff morale a boost ? This new beauty looks like a great new bit of kit and nine more coming must give staff a positive vibe :)
The irony that these new planes should have been here already, (but for Boeing's development delay's), and already replaced the aging 767's which would have meant this incident wouldn't have occurred, isn't lost on me.
An accountant friend of mine had had his assets cut in half twice...you'd think as a professional he would have learned from the first time i.e. stick your remaining assets in a family trust with yourself as the primary beneficiary, some free professional advice for you :)

[winner69]

Roger, your npat forecast is $240m isn't it?

On a par with 2007 (before abnormals $238m)......maybe a cyclical stock with a 7 year cycle

And a few more shares now so lets say eps the same

[Beagle]

We'll know 2014's result soon enough later this month W69 but at this stage I'm at $275m after tax for the year to 30 June 2015 for an EPS of 24.75 cps, PE of only 7.7...makes some other cyclical's including those in the building industry look heinously over priced :)

[slimwin]

Sure Roger, who doesn't like a shiny new aeroplane:-)
I look at the profit being generated now ,in a large part, being due to the position the company had been put in ,in the last ten years. Rob Mcdonald is the real success story. CEO' s get the glory though. Let's see what CL'S legacy will be.

[Goldstein]

Luxon says he is accountable - are you shareholders going to hold him to account?

Methinks the $227,000 grand apology should come out of Luxons bonus - good idea?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/10328117/Air-NZ-staff-told-to-lift-their-game

Actually he says "as chief executive officer I am ultimately accountable for this. "

This is a much weaker statement than saying "I am accountable for this"

The fact that he has to qualify his role in the dabacle speaks volumes about the man in my opinion.

[Beagle]

ST members who own AIR shares are warmly invited to join Forest and I who are flying down from AKL to the AGM on 30 September and following that meeting hooking up with other ST members at the evening meeting in Chch. PM me if you'd like to link up with our flight / transport arrangements.

[skid]

Did the arrival of the first Dreamliner give staff morale a boost ? This new beauty looks like a great new bit of kit and nine more coming must give staff a positive vibe :)
The irony that these new planes should have been here already, (but for Boeing's development delay's), and already replaced the aging 767's which would have meant this incident wouldn't have occurred, isn't lost on me.
An accountant friend of mine had had his assets cut in half twice...you'd think as a professional he would have learned from the first time i.e. stick your remaining assets in a family trust with yourself as the primary beneficiary, some free professional advice for you :)

Well lets hope they are going to replace the 777s,because quite frankly AIRs are a dog, with overcrowded seating.
I just flew on another 777 with Thai air and I can truthfully say it was a different animal with heaps more leg room(most likely a few less rows) and 9 seats per row ,instead of AIRs 10--the service was also excellent on Thai.--Cramming more seats maybe increases the bottom line when heaps are traveling ,but how long will the public stay faithful when they are being given the ''budget airline'' treatment .

[modandm]

We'll know 2014's result soon enough later this month W69 but at this stage I'm at $275m after tax for the year to 30 June 2015 for an EPS of 24.75 cps, PE of only 7.7...makes some other cyclical's including those in the building industry look heinously over priced :)

What assumptions is this forecast based on?

[modandm]

Actually he says "as chief executive officer I am ultimately accountable for this. "

This is a much weaker statement than saying "I am accountable for this"

The fact that he has to qualify his role in the dabacle speaks volumes about the man in my opinion.

Initially I had my doubt's about Luxton. His somewhat patronizing tone in the media, and on investor calls irritates me, but then few know the company like I do. However, I have become increasingly convinced of his quality, as I have seen sensible decisions being made, partnerships negotiated, and a more cut-throat approach to distribution (his forte). The most recent initiative, the establishment of a business performance unit to continuously drive down costs (targeting 0% non-fuel CASM growth), is brilliant, and if successful gets the company of a cost treadmill which is the bane of the industry. I think he the the ideal man for the job, Fyfe did a great job building the culture, but its time for a more commercially orientated individual to really drive shareholder value. The CFO is also very good, although a bit conservative, especially compared to US CFO's.

Actually as an interesting side note, I was researching and speaking to management of AAL (American), and UAL (United) last week. They have leverage ratio's of close to 100%, vs AIR c.50%. Although AAL is just out of bankruptcy management is already deploying current windfall profits and cash-flows to buy-back shares, instead of paying down debt. It's unbelievably aggressive. The contrast to banks and insurers which have been forced to rebuild capital is quite extraordinary. As a result of capital returns US airline share prices are rocketing - this is partly why I encourage AIR to allocate more capital to shareholder returns, rather than reinvesting it all in the usual...

As to the squeezy 777 seats - as a shareholder I fully support the reduction in economy seating comfort. On the minimal LH routes AIR faces competition on I expect little in the way of customer blowback. It also encourages those who can afford to trade-up to either the skycouch or premium economy to do so. So long as economy passengers make decisions based on price it makes total business sense to increase density - this has pretty much been accepted across the industry.

[modandm]

ST members who own AIR shares are warmly invited to join Forest and I who are flying down from AKL to the AGM on 30 September and following that meeting hooking up with other ST members at the evening meeting in Chch. PM me if you'd like to link up with our flight / transport arrangements.

I would love to but am not NZ based. Would love you to ask a question for me in public, I push them privately on capital return, but the more voices the better!

[Goldstein]

Initially I had my doubt's about Luxton. His somewhat patronizing tone in the media, and on investor calls irritates me, but then few know the company like I do. However, I have become increasingly convinced of his quality, as I have seen sensible decisions being made, partnerships negotiated, and a more cut-throat approach to distribution (his forte). The most recent initiative, the establishment of a business performance unit to continuously drive down costs (targeting 0% non-fuel CASM growth), is brilliant, and if successful gets the company of a cost treadmill which is the bane of the industry. I think he the the ideal man for the job, Fyfe did a great job building the culture, but its time for a more commercially orientated individual to really drive shareholder value. The CFO is also very good, although a bit conservative, especially compared to US CFO's..

Good postmodandm. Sounds like you are closer to the action the most.
It's looking like Luxton could use some good HR and PR people around him. Fife just seemed to be exceptionally good in that regard. Perception goes a fair way in the airline industry. If prices/products are similar most people will go with the sexy brand.

[777]

The CEO's name is Luxon, not Luxton.

[Zaphod]

Well lets hope they are going to replace the 777s,because quite frankly AIRs are a dog, with overcrowded seating.
I just flew on another 777 with Thai air and I can truthfully say it was a different animal with heaps more leg room(most likely a few less rows) and 9 seats per row ,instead of AIRs 10--the service was also excellent on Thai.--Cramming more seats maybe increases the bottom line when heaps are traveling ,but how long will the public stay faithful when they are being given the ''budget airline'' treatment .

Thai have moved to a ten across (in 3-4-3) for their new A380 (lower deck) as well as on the refurbished 747-400's, all with similar numbers of rows compared to AirNZ. Ten across seating is becoming the new industry norm, but considering the alternative which is raising fares for the cost-conscious economy class cabin, perhaps this is a better alternative.

[Beagle]

What assumptions is this forecast based on?

Hi modandm,

In the absence of your model I've drawn my own base line conclusions. Going of Reuters the consensus average forecast of seven analysts is $268m after tax for 2015. I think this is conservative.
Yes I've communicated with AIR already pushing them for a special dividend to mark the commencement of their 75th year of operations but I think its unlikely they do so at this stage, more likely as a special dividend contemporaneously with the 2015 final dividend, i.e. paying after the event. I might be brave enough to ask them again at the AGM depending upon the level of the 2014 final divvy.

Thanks for your comment on U.S. airlines. Interestingly Delta and American and others haven't been punished in their minor corrections off their highs to anything like the extent Air has.
I like the way CL is running the airline too. Employees need to realise he's not there for them, his job is to maximise shareholder returns, period. Employees needn't bother wondering if they can trust him but obviously there are concerns whether certain employees are trustworthy. I like the way he has personally taken charge of the oversight of that investigation...it would have been an easy cop-out to let the COO do it.

[skid]

Initially I had my doubt's about Luxton. His somewhat patronizing tone in the media, and on investor calls irritates me, but then few know the company like I do. However, I have become increasingly convinced of his quality, as I have seen sensible decisions being made, partnerships negotiated, and a more cut-throat approach to distribution (his forte). The most recent initiative, the establishment of a business performance unit to continuously drive down costs (targeting 0% non-fuel CASM growth), is brilliant, and if successful gets the company of a cost treadmill which is the bane of the industry. I think he the the ideal man for the job, Fyfe did a great job building the culture, but its time for a more commercially orientated individual to really drive shareholder value. The CFO is also very good, although a bit conservative, especially compared to US CFO's.

Actually as an interesting side note, I was researching and speaking to management of AAL (American), and UAL (United) last week. They have leverage ratio's of close to 100%, vs AIR c.50%. Although AAL is just out of bankruptcy management is already deploying current windfall profits and cash-flows to buy-back shares, instead of paying down debt. It's unbelievably aggressive. The contrast to banks and insurers which have been forced to rebuild capital is quite extraordinary. As a result of capital returns US airline share prices are rocketing - this is partly why I encourage AIR to allocate more capital to shareholder returns, rather than reinvesting it all in the usual...

As to the squeezy 777 seats - as a shareholder I fully support the reduction in economy seating comfort. On the minimal LH routes AIR faces competition on I expect little in the way of customer blowback. It also encourages those who can afford to trade-up to either the skycouch or premium economy to do so. So long as economy passengers make decisions based on price it makes total business sense to increase density - this has pretty much been accepted across the industry.

Yes,the customers will pay for crowded seats if they have no choice(to increase SH profits)-but give them a choice and they may vote with their feet--Its not like AIR is a bargain airline--Time will tell if disregard for customers comfort is a good move.

If I had to choose between the two,I know who I would choose and in this case Thai was cheaper.

Im very glad my return flight of 11hrs is going tom be in comfort--With people generally getting bigger,Im not so sure its a good strategy when you could just go with a budget airline.
The dreamliner may solve this problem though(not sure about the seating on them)

[Beagle]

Yes,the customers will pay for crowded seats if they have no choice(to increase SH profits)-but give them a choice and they may vote with their feet--Its not like AIR is a bargain airline--Time will tell if disregard for customers comfort is a good move.

If I had to choose between the two,I know who I would choose and in this case Thai was cheaper.

Im very glad my return flight of 11hrs is going tom be in comfort--With people generally getting bigger,Im not so sure its a good strategy when you could just go with a budget airline.
The dreamliner may solve this problem though(not sure about the seating on them)

Dreamliner has tight configuration too, 10 across 17.3 inch width seats and 32 inch pitch but with respect I think you've got to look at the full picture, better humidity, cabin pressure, much lower noise, bigger windows e.t.c.
As a big guy I'd rather travel in a fairly tight seat configuration with the Dreamliners advantages if it means I can get a good price in economy than a regular old 777 on long haul with a little more seat space, not that you'll really get it as I think 10 across and 32 inch pitch is becoming more and more common. I've given this quite a bit of thought and I think the team at Air have made the right call.

[tony64peter]

The first generation, [RN], creates the wealth the second consolidates it and the third spends it. Branson's philosophy "Look after the staff, the staff will look after the customers and the customers will look after the share holders". Yes On rereading it was emotive. Should have stuck to the script on this one.

[Beagle]

The first generation, [RN], creates the wealth the second consolidates it and the third spends it. Branson's philosophy "Look after the staff, the staff will look after the customers and the customers will look after the share holders". With top management continually releasing carefully orchestrated dirt to media about their front line staff is it any wonder that moral is heading south like the share price.

First of all lets clear up the use of the word "continually" which is obviously an emotive word you've used and factually incorrect.
That's a big call to make considering it was the Herald's editor that got caught up in that 3 day delay and was probably the one most annoyed. Common practice for people to vent their frustration and he has an excellent platform for that. What possible motivation would management have to deliberately leak information as you assert ? You can't seriously imagine it helps the airline or management releasing information like that, surely ? Conspiracy theories running away with themselves... What some staff need to realise in this day and age of twitter, Facebook, internet forums like this etc.., shoddy level's of professionalism will see the light of day one way or another.

[winner69]

The first generation, [RN], creates the wealth the second consolidates it and the third spends it. Branson's philosophy "Look after the staff, the staff will look after the customers and the customers will look after the share holders". Yes On rereading it was emotive. Should have stuck to the script on this one.

You would obviously put staff at the centre of the old stakeholder model. Roger sounds like would be putting shareholders as the centre of the universe. I tend to put customers in that position with staff a close second - who has the most one to one engagement with customers?(maybe they need to humanise the check in things)

Often the relentless pursuit of maximising shareholder returns ends up in tears for most (except for the top highly paid executives)

I feel that Air was doing well under past chairman/CEO in the customer experience / staff engagement / stakes but new chairman/ CEO seem to have changed tack with money the main driver. Will be interesting to see how the unilever way works out.

Maybe Mr Fyfe was lucky he didn't have many shareholders and could do his show pony stuff. Maybe Mr Branson was right in what he said

[Beagle]

The fact is shareholders own the airline and the CEO's job is to maximise shareholder returns and like some other shareholders I like the way CL clearly has this as a focus. Staff are generally extremely well paid and enjoy very good perks and it should be a given that they are dedicated to providing excellent customer service with the upmost professionalism at all times. If not perhaps they should explore alternative employment options ? I'm looking forward to the outcome of the investigation, if there's rotten apples in the barrel then get rid of them.

[Goldstein]

It's a bit anecdotal, but I recently flew LAX -> AKL. The staff were really quite unpleasant. First time I've struck that with AIR. It was a few weeks before the recent Hawaii debacle. It was enough for me and the passenger next to me to joke about it.

[winner69]

Is this another case of continuous disclosure as pete put it

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11305070

[winner69]

The fact is shareholders own the airline and the CEO's job is to maximise shareholder returns and like some other shareholders I like the way CL clearly has this as a focus. Staff are generally extremely well paid and enjoy very good perks and it should be a given that they are dedicated to providing excellent customer service with the upmost professionalism at all times. If not perhaps they should explore alternative employment options ? I'm looking forward to the outcome of the investigation, if there's rotten apples in the barrel then get rid of them.

As the owner of some AIR shares you happy with Luxon actions

Mr Wardale as a customer still needs to be convinced
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11305066

[Beagle]

As the owner of some AIR shares you happy with Luxon actions

Mr Wardale as a customer still needs to be convinced
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11305066

Seems reasonable to me as was the compensation of $1,000 to each affected passenger. Its interesting to note the investigation into crew readiness is still ongoing.
Air traffic control are responsible for aircraft separation...what some time waster watching aircraft land at the airport thought and that being newsworthy... for goodness sake, all I can say is this is starting to look like a personal campaign by the Herald's editor.

[winner69]

Does a bit ....look forward to tomorrow's beat up story then

[modandm]

A lot of ill-informed comment suggesting CL is only focused on the $.

Read slide one of the investor update. AIR wants to move from good to great at: Customer experience, Commercial Results, and Engaged Culture.

I have seen no evidence of a decline in commitment to either the customer or staff. Further evidence of customer focus includes $100m spent on 777-200 upgrades, new business lounges, improvement to loyalty programme, mobile app, new domestic proposition, the list goes on. As to staff AIR is hiring and training staff for new aircraft, morale is high, and the company remains the most trusted employer in NZ.

Ignore the bleaters and noise in the media, AIR continues to be great. And I expect the result in a few week time to be worth celebrating for investors!

[winner69]

And the next slide with pretty pictures 'more than double our profit sustainably'. I like it

[Beagle]

A lot of ill-informed comment suggesting CL is only focused on the $.

Read slide one of the investor update. AIR wants to move from good to great at: Customer experience, Commercial Results, and Engaged Culture.

I have seen no evidence of a decline in commitment to either the customer or staff. Further evidence of customer focus includes $100m spent on 777-200 upgrades, new business lounges, improvement to loyalty programme, mobile app, new domestic proposition, the list goes on. As to staff AIR is hiring and training staff for new aircraft, morale is high, and the company remains the most trusted employer in NZ.

Ignore the bleaters and noise in the media, AIR continues to be great. And I expect the result in a few week time to be worth celebrating for investors!

I agree 100%. If people would actually take the trouble to read the investor briefing for which I posted a link recently they'd see the clearly detailed objectives. I am happy to re-post the link if someone's asks for it and hasn't got the time to dig back through this thread and find it.

[brend]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11303746

Just to rub it in even more...no wonder journalism is so **** they're always on holiday.

[Beagle]

people who think CEOs focus only on $ don't understand corporate business. A CEOs job is to foster and promote the interests of all stakeholders, not just shareholders.

Enough management theories already for goodness sake. Any shareholder who's taken the time to read the full investor briefing knows CL has his head screwed on the right way.
What part of looking after the customers, driving efficiencies and aiming for a sustainable doubling of profits is so hard to understand...

[biker]

Air traffic control are responsible for aircraft separation...what some time waster watching aircraft land at the airport thought and that being newsworthy... for goodness sake, all I can say is this is starting to look like a personal campaign by the Herald's editor.

There is an email link in the middle of that article. Suggest you use it and tell them what you think. I have. Absolute twaddle. Non newsworthy, inconsequential beat up quoting some inarticulate ignoramus. Not worthy of the Herald.
What's next? More headlines with people expressing what is in their heads at any given time.
Good grief.

[Beagle]

There is an email link in the middle of that article. Suggest you use it and tell them what you think. I have. Absolute twaddle. Non newsworthy, inconsequential beat up quoting some inarticulate ignoramus. Not worthy of the Herald.
What's next? More headlines with people expressing what is in their heads at any given time.
Good grief.

Thanks good idea. Its getting tiresome, people needlessly beating up on what is a very good company.

Copy of e.mail just sent to the Editor at online-editor@nzherald.co.nz



Dear Sir / Madam,

Your repetitive beating up on Air New Zealand is seriously resented by its 11,000
staff and thousands of shareholders.

Engineering issues happen from time to time, people were inconvenienced and well
compensated, get over it, your repetitive campaign is vindictive and is making staff reporting
on this and yourself who was caught in this look like spoilt brats spitting the dummy.

As for some time wasting aviation text book expert being concerned about a go
around because of inadequate separation, for goodness sake, Air Traffic control are
responsible for aircraft separation, isn't there anyone in your office who understands
how air traffic control works ? For goodness sake, what's next, some mindless prattle
about how a 90 year old granny hurt her ankle stepping off an Air New Zealand plane.

Your article today regarding the flight check Honolulu to Auckland was another bit of
vindictive rubbish, journalism at its absolute worst.

You people should be thoroughly ashamed of yourselves repetitively denigrating our
national airline in the carefully orchestrated manner you are.

Keep it up and I think Air New Zealand will have an actionable case against you.

Felt good to get that off my cheast :)

[Beagle]

Its not like you haven't spouted a lot of crap of your own, mate.

Mate I didn't mean to offend, all I'm saying is if people took the time to read the full investor briefing they'll see the top management have their heads well and truly screwed on properly so theoretical management style debates become meaningless when the company has already clearly articulated its five year plan.

[arc]

Someone has faith in AIR
3 separate trades each of volume 1,000,000 through at 11:22am. and another at 500,000

My bet is Roger or Moosie just opened their wallet... :). are you guys giving the moths some flying practice..

[mikeybycrikey]

Mate I didn't mean to offend, all I'm saying is if people took the time to read the full investor briefing they'll see the top management have their heads well and truly screwed on properly so theoretical management style debates become meaningless when the company has already clearly articulated its five year plan.

If it was as easy as just writing a good investor briefing then we'd all be millionaires. You can write a good investor briefing and have great ideas but still need to execute on them.
It does appear that the Herald might have a bit of an anti-Air NZ agenda, especially considering today's story, but they did have a reporter on that stranded Hawaii flight. And Sam Morgan was on the flight. So definitely newsworthy. I was actually a little surprised that there wasn't more fuss about it on Stuff.

However, it seems completely inexcusable that passengers were left stranded for three days, no matter what the issue is. Especially when it appears that communication was as poor as it was. What would it cost to hire a plane just to get the passengers moving vs the $1000 compensation and the bad PR?

If Air NZ is heading downhill, it's probably going to be a slow, gradual process. Are current events a warning sign for shareholders or a wake-up call for management? We'll see.

[Beagle]

There's a difference between something that's newsworthy and running a systematic, sustained and carefully organised campaign to denigrate the airline's reputation which is what this now looks like.

[freddagg]

Someone has faith in AIR
3 separate trades each of volume 1,000,000 through at 11:22am. and another at 500,000

My bet is Roger or Moosie just opened their wallet... :). are you guys giving the moths some flying practice..

Maybe its the Herald editor, would explain the beat up

[sharp]

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/253593
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/198066.pdf (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/198066.pdf)

[arc]

11:22 am 3.5Mill Buy-in........3:15 pm announcement

Nothing in it...
just another Tui's Add

[troyvdh]

Just a wee comment from a customer of Air NZ...very occasionally I hasten to add.
I have flown quite a bit over the years ..and have begun to loathe same...(Moscow to CHCH...over 2 days !!!!)..last year.
What I have found somewhat amusing is how folk can compare Air NZ with say the likes of Emeriates and Singapore....There is no comparison...the service/food etc of the two mentioned is so far superior.... consistently.
Recently I flew to and from Hawaii..on Air NZ...the staff were like civil servants ...the water offered came from tap water (the hostess gave a limp excuse)..and the food was awful.
A fairer comparison may be with Russia Air and Areolineas Argentinas (which no longer flys here)...
Ive also have spoken to a few mates...some will pay a few hundred dollars not to fly AIR NZ.

[Marilyn Munroe]

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/253593
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/198066.pdf (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/198066.pdf)

So if flying to the island republic, unless you can score a seat on Lee Kuan Yew Airlines A380 you will be ralegated to thrombosis class on Cullen Airlines.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Poet]

Just a wee comment from a customer of Air NZ...very occasionally I hasten to add.
I have flown quite a bit over the years ..and have begun to loathe same...(Moscow to CHCH...over 2 days !!!!)..last year.
What I have found somewhat amusing is how folk can compare Air NZ with say the likes of Emeriates and Singapore....There is no comparison...the service/food etc of the two mentioned is so far superior.... consistently.
Recently I flew to and from Hawaii..on Air NZ...the staff were like civil servants ...the water offered came from tap water (the hostess gave a limp excuse)..and the food was awful.
A fairer comparison may be with Russia Air and Areolineas Argentinas (which no longer flys here)...
Ive also have spoken to a few mates...some will pay a few hundred dollars not to fly AIR NZ.

Actually, you would struggle to pay extra not to fly AIR, I just booked to Europe with SIAL and saved $3000 compared with AIR - and that's from someone who has a lot of shares in AIR. It would be hard to find a more expensive choice than AIR for any route.

I still remember when I stopped flying with them on any occasion when I had a choice (and jetstar isn't a choice unfortunately) and that's after the three hours I spent sitting at Auckland Airport (under supervision from the previous MD) waiting for my booked flight because I wouldn't pay them $150 to travel three hours earlier in an otherwise empty seat. Since then, I have only voluntarily travelled with them using airpoints gained on paid flights from partner airlines. Not that I couldn't afford it, it's just that, like very many people, I don't like to be taken advantage of by opportunists.

Still as an investor from $1.28 (thanks Modandm) I recognise that they have a good thing going just now and will stay with them as the SP improves. Actually doubled up yesterday.

Long term, they will become increasingly arrogant and destroy themselves. I'm hoping I'll be out by then

[skid]

Enough management theories already for goodness sake. Any shareholder who's taken the time to read the full investor briefing knows CL has his head screwed on the right way.
What part of looking after the customers, driving efficiencies and aiming for a sustainable doubling of profits is so hard to understand...

The part about looking after customers--or should I say sardines.
With the amount of people a dreamliner holds is it really necessary to cram 10 seats in a row--whats the point if customers (or some of them) choose another airline that is more comfortable.

[skid]

Just a wee comment from a customer of Air NZ...very occasionally I hasten to add.
I have flown quite a bit over the years ..and have begun to loathe same...(Moscow to CHCH...over 2 days !!!!)..last year.
What I have found somewhat amusing is how folk can compare Air NZ with say the likes of Emeriates and Singapore....There is no comparison...the service/food etc of the two mentioned is so far superior.... consistently.
Recently I flew to and from Hawaii..on Air NZ...the staff were like civil servants ...the water offered came from tap water (the hostess gave a limp excuse)..and the food was awful.
A fairer comparison may be with Russia Air and Areolineas Argentinas (which no longer flys here)...
Ive also have spoken to a few mates...some will pay a few hundred dollars not to fly AIR NZ.

Starting to see a pattern here--They are expensive,and are not looking after the customers--The ole ''everyones going to do it'' doesnt wash with me--good luck with that doubling of profits

[Goldstein]

Regarding the comments lately about 9 versus 10 seats abreast in economy on the Dreamliner. It's not quite as simple as people are saying.

Airlines make a good deal of money as freight operators. It's not just the passengers' luggage in the hold. Some airlines may be able to fill the belly of the plane with more freight and thus allow 9 abreast in economy.

[Beagle]

The part about looking after customers--or should I say sardines.
With the amount of people a dreamliner holds is it really necessary to cram 10 seats in a row--whats the point if customers (or some of them) choose another airline that is more comfortable.

IMHO most people are shopping on price and reputation and know no matter which airline they book an economy fare with they're not going to get a first class experience in economy.
Air will be marketing all the other attributes of the Dreamliner which I've posted details of on many occasions previously. Further, most airlines are looking to improve efficiency as they refurbish older planes so you'll be faced with a tight economy seat on an old noisy airliner with harsh cabin pressure and bad air and a shiny new quiet airliner with huge windows, great cabin pressure and better quality air and humidity whilst enjoying supporting your own national airline. Remember Air have 10 of these new 787-9's coming with options on another 8...anyone for an all Dreamliner wide bodied fleet ?
Look, lets get real. The commercial reality is they're supplying a product to fit the average profile of their customers, about, 70 kg's, that gives them the optimum return on what are very expensive aircraft at circa U.S. $250m each, (retail asking price). If people are for example 6ft 6 inches or circa 150 kg's in weight maybe they need to accept its not up to airlines to design economy class seating to specifically meet their requirements....perhaps those people might consider paying up for premium economy or just suck it in and spend the money saved at their destination.

P.S. Profits don't need to double. Forecast PE for 2015 based on an average of 7 analysts forecasts is less than 8 which IMHO has to make this the value buy of the NZX. If you think there's a better value stock trading on less demanding price multiples whilst still having a clearly defined growth profile on the NZX I challenge you to tell me about it, I'm all ears !!! (you needn't bother directing me to all the blue sky companies that promise they'll take over the world but currently lose money and burn cash like its going out of fashion, I'm talking about comparative companies that actually make money now).

[winner69]

Roger, but Luxon says in that preso 'more than double our profit sustainably'

You be creaming it then ........ eps doubles and a rerating to a PE of 16

That's a four bagger

Bugger, I won't invest in airlines ......but sort of tempted

[Beagle]

You know you want too. Gordon Geeko wasn't always right :)

[winner69]

You know you want too. Gordon Geeko wasn't always right :)

Knowing my luck with airlines if I bought AIR the next day a AIR Dreamliner will crash killing hundreds of people

I couldn't live with that, life to precious

[Hoop]

AIR is at a technical crossroads...a very uncertain and risky time to buy in ...No clear direction which way the price is going to go but at this Technical conjunction area some patterns and trends must fail either Today or Monday...
There is a couple of very weak buy signals but that's all ..the ol saying... one swallow doesn't make a summer...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR07082014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR07082014.png.html)

[Jaa]

Great to see the Singapore-Air NZ alliance has been approved without any additional conditions. The alliance should prove very profitable for Air NZ and provide some nice growth (daily 777) and increased code-share revenue.

Singapore has always been NZers favourite stopover destination on the way to Europe and lots of fast growing emerging markets to provide feed as well.

Even AIA is happy, from their press release:


Passenger arrivals from Singapore to New Zealand have grown by 19 per
cent in the past 12 months. Also in the past year, visitor arrivals from India
have increased by 13 per cent and Indonesian arrivals have increased by 17
per cent. The total growth in passenger arrivals from South East Asia has
likewise been strong, with an 18 per cent increase over the past 12 months.

[winner69]

Even dogs have their problems with Air NZ

And not a Herald story

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10365719/Dog-misses-flight-ends-up-at-uni-party

[Goldstein]

It's becoming a bit like the civil servant credit card spending saga of a few years ago. The journos were like pigs at a trough on that one. Now it would seem to be the national carrier's turn.

[Beagle]

BREAKING NEWS - The Herald are running an exposé this week after an insider claimed he saw an unusual number of squashed bugs on an Air New Zealand jet's windscreen :)

[slimwin]

BREAKING NEWS. Crew from Bali yesterday, fantastic I thought. However ,I waited one hour in the business line and the complaints, from others, were very raw. 5 checkins open (two for economy!) and the handling agents were very slow. They really need a NZ rep there. It's a seasonal flight so I guess you trust your handing agent but the reputation is going to be network wide. Punters are probably a bit sensitve to this at the moment. I overheard a couple still talking about it in koru in AKL..

[Beagle]

Well, well, well, it seems the N.Z. Herald Editor is now long on AIR's stock.
Yesterday we had a very positive report on AIR's cabin crew performance in very profesionally reassuring staff after a frieghtening lightening strike on an ATR72 aircraft landing at Auckland airport and today we have this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11309088

Anyone else noticed the oil price coming back very nicely :)

[Zaphod]

Well, well, well, it seems the N.Z. Herald Editor is now long on AIR's stock.
Yesterday we had a very positive report on AIR's cabin crew performance in very profesionally reassuring staff after a frieghtening lightening strike on an ATR72 aircraft landing at Auckland airport and today we have this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11309088

Anyone else noticed the oil price coming back very nicely :)

There was also a lightening strike on an ATR-72 bound for NPL earlier this week. Perhaps Bombardier are using voodoo dolls?

Nice to see some positive press for the NZHerald for a change, but I guess controversy sells papers and at the end of the day, that's what it's all about.

[modandm]

Okay I used to say watch the company not the shareprice. Now I say, watch the company not the share price or the herald.

[Beagle]

The herald did a bloody beat up on the pilots over that Honolulu thing, I know one of the pilots well and he told me they weren't communicated properly with and assumed from the info they did have it was OK to relax and have a few drinks etc as they had over a day off. Next thing they're being asked to suddenly go to work and couldn't do it in order to comply with the regulations. Management went on a witch hunt to find someone to blame for the furore created by the herald so came gunning for the pilots.
Believe me, it wasn't the pilots' fault. Employee morale is fine but they'd better go easy on those pilots.

Extract from what one of the senior AIR pilot's I know told me on the weekend. The Editor is full of it and is little better than a spoilt brat having a bloody good tantrum which is why I sent such a scathing e.mail recently, (copy at post 1513).

[Hoop]

Updated chart from previous chart Post #1531 on 8th August

I'm back in at 2.02 ... I had sold out at 2.14 and so with that money I was able to buy 6% more AIR shares than I had previously...

Re: Media....All ST readers know of my attitude towards the Media..........media amplifies NOISE!!

As my TA Discipline deals with Market Physics this is my preferred definition of NOISE (free Dictionary)..
3. Physics A disturbance, especially a random and persistent disturbance, that obscures or reduces the clarity of a signal.

A person with a suspicious mind could ask the question why AIR publically got all beaten up suddenly after it's share price had bottomed out and were commencing recovery mode

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR15082014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR15082014.png.html)

[Beagle]

A person with a suspicious mind could ask the question why AIR publically got all beaten up suddenly after it's share price had bottomed out and were commencing recovery mode....and then the N.Z. Herald started printing positive stories, makes you wonder doesn't it !

You're in for the next leg up, final divvy and feed at the AGM...you're as cunning as a hungry beagle dog.

[Hoop]

We have lift off .. broken through the 210 resistance...

[psychic]

Well called Hoop! And thanks for sharing eh

[winner69]

Roger, is this good or is just a bit of housekeeping

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/198899.pdf

[Beagle]

Looks okay to me W69 and operating stat's for July also look okay. Watching CNBC this morning they had a chart up of crude oil for the last 3 months and it has been in steady decline for the last 2 months from a peak for WTI of $108 barrel to the present price which is oscillating in the mid - late $90 barrel range. It's only natural with such a significant recent decline in crude they'd be somewhat out of the money with their fuel hedge position but present prices offer an excellent opportunity to lock in attractive hedge and collar positions for Q3 and Q4 2015 in my opinion.
Looking at the operating stat's the extra domestic capacity probably relates to the retirement of the last of the old Boeing 737's and replacement with A320's which have more seating capacity. International load factors look good when you consider the level of geopolitical risk around the globe and there's no early indication of a drop in demand due to the Ebola health crisis.
I'm looking forward to the annual result on the 27th.

Shareholders are well positioned :)

[Beagle]

The new Dreamliner is on line and working hard. I hear its been put on the Sydney route as the quickest way to type qualify crew and I was out at the airport yesterday afternoon and by coincidence saw it come into land. It looked absolutely stunning in its black livery and those carbon fibre wings sure do bend up at the ends a fair bit more than others. I hear there's two more coming shortly, one in September and another in October. My guess is one will be put on the new Singapore route and they'll replace an older plane on the China route with the other. Further deliveries of another three are scheduled for mid-late 2015 and more thereafter, (total 10).

[brend]

The new Dreamliner is on line and working hard. I hear its been put on the Sydney route as the quickest way to type qualify crew and I was out at the airport yesterday afternoon and by coincidence saw it come into land. It looked absolutely stunning in its black livery and those carbon fibre wings sure do bend up at the ends a fair bit more than others. I hear there's two more coming shortly, one in September and another in October. My guess is one will be put on the new Singapore route and they'll replace an older plane on the China route with the other. Further deliveries of another three are scheduled for mid-late 2015 and more thereafter, (total 10).

nah not Singapore.

the 787 will be put on Perth, Shanghai and Tokyo.

The first of the refurbished 777-200 came back into service in the last few days and its expected to be put on the Singapore route

[Beagle]

Thanks for that. Are you hearing the new Dreamliner is a couple of percent off on its contracted performance targets, (I'm hearing a wisper of that). A bit heavier than it should be ?

[brend]

Thanks for that. Are you hearing the new Dreamliner is a couple of percent off on its contracted performance targets, (I'm hearing a wisper of that). A bit heavier than it should be ?

Nah haven't heard that. Shouldn't performance targets be measured when it starts the long haul flights? 10-11 hour flights when its at cruising altitude for longer.

link below re singapore.

http://theflyingsocialnetwork.com/site/article/air-new-zealand-and-singapore-airlines-join-forces-to-expand-new-zealand-si

[tzbang]

AIR beatup on NewsTalkZB this morning over regional fares. Lots of people moaning about the lack of competition.

[psychic]

Air New Zealand is set to announce a sharp increase in profit this week which the airline will welcome as a shift in focus from the negative publicity that has hit it this year.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11313674

[Poet]

$262m Net Profit and a 10c special dividend

Way to go!

[modandm]

YEAH BOY!! special div thank you very much! I called it first! :)

[dingoNZ]

Fantastic results - gearing down, rev and EBITDA up and a capital return.

Very happy with this result and will be utilizing the DRP.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/199366.pdf

Very strong result and very happy that the board listened to myself and a number of other shareholders that communicated with them regarding the special dividend.

Initial observations.

1. They did incredibly well from fuel and fx derivatives, net gain of $25m.
2. The current years result is after increased labour cost incl restructuring and fleet transition cost of $45m. I presume this is a one-off in regard to restructuring of the heavy maintenance division and exit of the last of the 747-400 fleet, (last flight 10 September - return 12 September). If this is indeed non-recurring this will have a strong positive impact on the 2015 underlying profit after tax.
3. Capacity growth of 6% this year
4. Moving to a young and very fuel efficient fleet.
5. fx and fuel hedging currently providing a benign operating cost outlook notwithstanding significant geopolitical risk around the globe.

[grayman]

YEAH BOY!! special div thank you very much! I called it first! :)



I assume there is always a level of uncertainty, but with the special div and the fantastic overall result is the SP expected to go up quite a bit before dropping back down after the record date?

Also is the special div on top of the final one. Or is it instead of.

Thanks

- newbie here, this is the first (and only so far) stock I've bought.

[Okebw]

I assume there is always a level of uncertainty, but with the special div and the fantastic overall result is the SP expected to go up quite a bit before dropping back down after the record date?

Also is the special div on top of the final one. Or is it instead of.

Thanks

- newbie here, this is the first (and only so far) stock I've bought.

The price has already risen quite a bit recently, especially with the stuff article earlier this week. So I'd say it's definitely going to go up but not as much as it otherwise would.

And the special divie is on top of the normal one

[Hoop]

I assume there is always a level of uncertainty, but with the special div and the fantastic overall result is the SP expected to go up quite a bit before dropping back down after the record date?

Also is the special div on top of the final one. Or is it instead of.

Thanks

- newbie here, this is the first (and only so far) stock I've bought.

It seems Mr Market likes this result and the opening price could be around $2.20..up 4.5c..
The Spec Div is on top of..10cps + 5.5cps both fully imputed

[theace]

How is the DRP price determined? and is there any discount? What are the pros or cons of acquiring via DRP?

[Okebw]

How is the DRP price determined? and is there any discount? What are the pros or cons of acquiring via DRP?

Pros are no transaction costs, a discount to market value and potential taxation benefits.
Con is that the issue of drp shares dilutes others on market.

and its a 1.5%discount to the average trading price of the week leading up to the divie

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/assets/PDFs/dividend-reinvestment-plan-offer-document.pdf

[modandm]

Revenue items were 25m ahead of my estimates due to stronger services and other revenue growth - really pleasing to see other revenue pick up (credit cards etc). :)

Costs were 6 million lower than my estimates, and with $45 million of transitional labour (one-offs) vs my estimate of 17m, this is a big beat! My cost forecast for next year is going down! :)

Ownership costs (depreciation + leases) were 15m above my estimate - I need to increase my assumptions here :t_down: On the bright side depreciation is non cash.. :cool:

Finance costs (interest expense less interest income) was 9m lower than my conservative estimates. :)

As a result PBT, tax, NPAT and EPS were all slightly higher than my estimates. GREAT RESULT - UPGRADES TO NEXT YEAR WILL FOLLOW

As expected cash generation was outstanding - and with an under-leveraged balance sheet they have increased the div and added a 10c special. While I would have liked the full year normal to be 7.5c + a special I can't really complain can I? On my expectations of c.30c EPS next year, they will face the same problem of how much to increase the dividend, vs special next year (tho this big special buys them some time. Their concern must be that raising the normal so fast creates expectations, and a dividend level that would prove unsustainable in a downturn.

I still think they are under-rewarding shareholders given they are spending 2.2bn! on fleet - and to give context this large dividend is only 177m... about 20% of operating cash flow.. Heaps more to go!

To the guy who wants to go in the DRP there isn't one numpty, DRP is for co's that need more cash - AIR has the opposite problem!

I haven't reset my model - will increase my estimates in the next few weeks, but my current price target is $3.00 folks (10x 30c EPS). Lets hope VAH can be turned around soon, as even though I give 0 credit to valuation for the $100's of million poured in, if it detracts from earnings (through the new accounting method), how will the market judge that?

- looking forward to my divi check

-MOD!

[Beagle]

Thanks for your thoughts Mod. Major fleet investment in the years ahead leads to average age of the fleet coming down and substaintial fuel efficiency advantages.

Christopher Luxon's headline sums it up nicely. Exciting Times ahead :D

What to do with the nice big divvy and the other big divvy from PGW...nice problem to have :)

[Schrodinger]

Great result. One of the best performing airlines globally and it looks like their result will get even better next year. Dont recommend buying in at these levels as they are fully valued atm.

[Zaphod]

YEAH BOY!! special div thank you very much! I called it first! :)

Yes, well done Modandm!

I had thought that if the special dividend was declared it might be a bit more conservative, judged on AirNZ's past behaviour but 10cps is fantastic! Albeit with a slightly lower final div.

[Zaphod]

Fantastic results - gearing down, rev and EBITDA up and a capital return.

Very happy with this result and will be utilizing the DRP.

Sorry DingoNZ, the DRP was suspended a while back! By all means use your windfall to buy some more on market though!

[dingoNZ]

Sorry DingoNZ, the DRP was suspended a while back! By all means use your windfall to buy some more on market though!

Not according to Link Market Services?

Have I missed something?

[Beagle]

Great result. One of the best performing airlines globally and it looks like their result will get even better next year. Dont recommend buying in at these levels as they are fully valued atm.

Really ? Extract from sharechat article today.

The stock is rated an average 'buy' based on six analyst recommendations compiled by Reuters, with a median target price of $2.30.
These broker forecasts were before this stellar annual result. I fully expect analysts to be currently working on upgrading their forecasts and of course its worth remembering that the stock currently trades cum fully imputed dividends of 15.5 cps.

[mp52]

...Dont recommend buying in at these levels as they are fully valued atm.
Depends what you mean by "these levels" I think. My heartfelt appreciation to Roger and other "old-timers" who drew attention to AIRs value when the Herald was kicking them in the guts. Not many value offers like this on the market at present (and from an airline - who'd have thunk).

DISC: Holding :t_up:

[mp52]

Sorry DingoNZ, the DRP was suspended a while back! By all means use your windfall to buy some more on market though!

It's not made that apparent on the AirNZ site either but the latest market announcement doc (http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/assets/PDFs/nzx-appendix-1-and-7_3.pdf) confirms its suspended.

[Beagle]

It's not made that apparent on the AirNZ site either but the latest market announcement doc (http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/assets/PDFs/nzx-appendix-1-and-7_3.pdf) confirms its suspended.

Thanks for confirming that mate.
I'll be attending the AGM and will be making enquiries behind the scenes. My training as an auditor makes me like a beagle dog at the airport sniffing for trouble and my radar sense is that there's something in the vicious and sustained kicking the Herald gave the airline....then followed by a string of good press...or on the other hand perhaps they simply took note of the scathing e.mail I and one or two others sent them or perhaps AIR's legal representative gave the Herald a shot across the bow ? Anyway.. it gives me something to sniff around about.
If I find out the Herald Editor was buying shares in and around the time he gave the company a string of bad press there's going to be trouble coming his way.
The other thing I want to ask about is whether the new Dreamliner is performing as expected.
Disc - I added more AIR shares to my portfolio this morning.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Any news on the cash burn at Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division)?

Pity JK ruled out futher asset sales, he would have got a ton of money selling Cullen Airlines to Etihad based on this result.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

Any news on the cash burn at Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division)?

Pity JK ruled out futher asset sales, he would have got a ton of money selling Cullen Airlines to Etihad based on this result.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

ALWAYS looking for a negative, never seems to be a balanced or objective comment... seriously why do you bother contributing ?
Is it so hard to have a positive word for the work the directors and staff have done...NO lets flog it off to some Islamic state owned airline and hand over control of a national asset so they can rape all New Zealanders for whatever air fares as they see fit....bloody brilliant !!! That would be fantastic for the N.Z. economy, (sarcasm intended). Don't give up your day job if you have one.

[Schrodinger]

My thoughts are based on a longer timeframe and I think AIR has had a nice run recently. If you are interested in future capital gains you might get dissapointed and buying in @2.2 for a capital gain isnt savvy imo. Havent run into a useful NZ broker who gives good avice.

Of course, if you are a short term speculator then by all means gamble away...

[mp52]

Fair enough. Not a speculator but not necessarily a buy-and-hold either. I think there's upside potential for Air NZ 2-4 years out. Their early investment in new fleet and the added flexibility this provides in partnership arrangements and cost reduction will take some time to play out.

Didn't buy in @2.2 tho.

[Beagle]

Let me see. Based on an ex divvy price of $2.035, ($2.19-0.155) and 2014 normalised earnings of 21.94 cps the stock is on a trailing PE of only 9.28 and the directors are very confident of good growth to come.
Good luck to those hoping it'll fall back again.

[Schrodinger]

Dont want to bring out the "Dont invest in airlines piece" but I think thats behind the 10 PE currently.