AIR - Air NZ.

[Timesurfer]

Air New Zealand is reducing flights on domestic routes and reviewing airfares as tourism slows and operating costs rise. Link

(https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/113048500/air-new-zealand-reduces-domestic-capacity-by-2-per-cent-reviews-fares)When the execs are freezing their pay packets you know things are bad!

[Baa_Baa]

Let’s see if we have a rational market, this is one share that has a history of not defying gravity.

One has to love a cyclical, from riches to rags and back again, over and over and all the while the ones who don't do their TA ride the ups congratulating themselves and then the downs consoling themselves that the dividends are worth the capital motion sickness.

[winner69]

Could be a bit embarrassing for AIR if John boy forced out of ANZ for bad governance / oversight

But many directors are only it to feed from the bottomless trough ...is that the term

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113169105/former-bnz-chair-calls-for-sir-john-key-to-be-forced-to-resign-from-anz


Talking of politics wonder if any substance to that rumour Luxon being parachuted in as a National MP

[Blue Skies]

Talking of politics wonder if any substance to that rumour Luxon being parachuted in as a National MP[/QUOTE]

Luxon says he's not interested at present. However, some in National party must be desperately searching for another J.K.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/air-nz-flight-struck-by-lightning/ar-AACcZnn?ocid=spartandhp
Shocking.

Big fall in oil prices in May. I reckon AIR about fair value at present and continue to hold a modest position.

22 cps fully imputed dividend (which I think they can maintain in the years ahead) gives a 12% gross return at $2.55 (rounded, actually 2.5463). I think those looking for this to go down to $2 or close to that are going to be disappointed again but predicting the future is like predicting the weather so as usual time will tell.

A lot depends upon how much more damage the loose cannon Trumpet does to international markets...he just never shuts up...so almost anything is possible I suppose.

[winner69]

Well done AIR ....recognised for its diversity and inclusivity in the global airline industry

Pretty telling photo of IATA members head honchos

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12236892

[winner69]

Share price inching ever closer to $2.20 for this cyclical stock heading to its worse earnings for five years

[Beagle]

Share price inching ever closer to $2.20 for this cyclical stock heading to its worse earnings for five years

Keep dreaming mate. $2.55 gives a sustainable 12% gross dividend yield. Oil has fallen massively in the last few weeks will give AIR the opportunity to lock in some forward contracts at more attractive pricing.

[winner69]

Dave topping up the housekeeping kitty

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/335526/301151.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Dave topping up the housekeeping kitty

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/335526/301151.pdf

Hmm - negative topup? He had after acquisition or disposal less shares than before. Maybe he just sold 70k shares.

[winner69]

Hmm - negative topup? He had after acquisition or disposal less shares than before. Maybe he just sold 70k shares.

Yeah I know it says he sold .......needed more housekeeping money to do the shopping.....but maybe a new deck is what I meant

[BlackPeter]

Yeah I know ...needed more housekeeping money to do the shopping.

OK - got it ... you are saying weather is just too lousy for building a deck :);

[Ggcc]

OK - got it ... you are saying weather is just too lousy for building a deck :);
$185,000....... Small deck

[winner69]

Swedes not flying as much as they did because of flygskam (flight shame)

Just as well NZ is a long and isolated country .....can’t imagine beagle driving all way to Queenstown for his annual ski trip and it’s a long row to Australia and beyond.

But inevitably this thinking probably will impact the likes of AIR sometime

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/sweden-has-invented-a-word-to-encourage-people-not-to-fly-and-it-s-working/

[Raz]

Swedes not flying as much as they did because of flygskam (flight shame)

Just as well NZ is a long and isolated country .....can’t imagine beagle driving all way to Queenstown for his annual ski trip and it’s a long row to Australia and beyond.

But inevitably this thinking probably will impact the likes of AIR sometime

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/sweden-has-invented-a-word-to-encourage-people-not-to-fly-and-it-s-working/

I wonder if some bad news will drop this week......

[couta1]

Air NZ getting all inclusive and PC about tattoos now, give me a break. PS-Quite pleased not to hold any of these.

[winner69]

Air NZ getting all inclusive and PC about tattoos now, give me a break. PS-Quite pleased not to hold any of these.

...and new safety video this week ..must have been made before the cost cutting cane in.

Another round of discussions no doubt

[stoploss]

...and new safety video this week

Another round of discussions no doubt

Be able to do a video with everyone showing off their "tramp stamp" ...:)

[winner69]

Air New Zealand Dreamliner crashes and burns (the replica one)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/113383583/crash-of-model-air-new-zealand-787-a-huge-hit-on-youtube

[babymonster]

must be a very expensive crash...

[oldtech]

There is a series of videos on Youtube showing the guy building it. Must be devastated after all the painstaking work he put into it.

[Joshuatree]

On another subject, if they lower road speed limits in NZ more people will fly domestically.

[Benny1]

On another subject, if they lower road speed limits in NZ more people will fly domestically.

Well planes fly faster than cars drive now... So shouldn't make too much difference??

[QOH]

There is a series of videos on Youtube showing the guy building it. Must be devastated after all the painstaking work he put into it.
Yes I was sad to see it crash, I thought he had done a brilliant job of building it.
Maybe AiR could help him to build anothrr.

[peat]

Maybe AiR could help him to build anothrr.
Or sue him for bad publicity. Would he have to have their permission to use their livery ?

[Joshuatree]

Well planes fly faster than cars drive now... So shouldn't make too much difference??

If cars take longer(but safer) to get to their destination, i think more people would say hang it i will fly.

[iceman]

Yes I was sad to see it crash, I thought he had done a brilliant job of building it.
Maybe AiR could help him to build anothrr.

Did it have a RR engine on it ?

[stoploss]

Luxon gone ..,,

[winner69]

Luxon gone ..,,

.....must be going into politics after all.

[IAK]

.....must be going into politics after all.
Woah, will be a bit of a pay cut but he'll have a lucrative directorship career when he' s finished with politics.

[Blue Skies]

.....must be going into politics after all.

Parachuted into Botany seat, next leader of Nat after J.C. 2024 PM. JMHO

[Benny1]

Pity we no longer have his biggest fan on the forum...
Oh well Rodger you may as well sell those shares... All down hill from here without your trusty can do no wrong Christopher at the control stick!

[Raz]

Luxon gone ..,,

I was told this plus something else was to happen a couple of weeks ago...as the CEO and where the company is at nice timing to leave...

I think Tony (Chair) is also turning over this year..so some transition alright at the top.

[Snow Leopard]

This is excellent timing, I will be contractually unrestrained from mid-August.

So not only could I takeover CEO-ing the airline during it's next difficult phase straight away but I could turn up early and make sure he does not steal too many lollies as he goes out the door.

Will send my CV in within the hour.

[bull....]

imagine the shares will have a tank on this news. another leader who did a great job

[Lola]

imagine the shares will have a tank on this news. another leader who did a great job

Just a thought: maybe JK brokered this and he’s off to
the other ANZ
HAwaii house thrown as a sweetener

[RTM]

ADMIN: AIR: Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon to resign

Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Christopher Luxon has resigned this
evening and will step down from day to day leadership of the airline on
September 25.

[777]

Just a thought: maybe JK brokered this and he’s off to
the other ANZ
HAwaii house thrown as a sweetener


That crossed my mind as well. Has a non banker ever got a CEO job with a bank? Or should that not matter?

[winner69]

That crossed my mind as well. Has a non banker ever got a CEO job with a bank? Or should that not matter?

@franosullivan
Air NZ's Christopher Luxon holding forth over breakfast this am on the bold and provocative agenda the PM's Business Advisory Council (which he chairs) has been developing. Should we read anything into that former National PM Sir John Key was in the front row?

[mikeybycrikey]

Luxon leaving is a bit of a loss. I'm not sure that I was particularly a fan of his but he was a good reliable safe pair of hands. I was hoping for more information about replacement and handover but I guess the process of finding a replacement starts now (if it hadn't already started).

I do feel that he let things slide to some degree. Constantly cutting until something gives, and that was Air NZ's reputation, culminating in the Luxon apology tour in Sept 2018: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1931815-update-air-new-zealand.html. Some of those things were out of his control (fuel pipeline, RR engine) but some should've been foreseen and rectified sooner (growth in lounge demand, contact centre delays). Airlines are a fickle business and it's much harder to gain customers than it is to not lose them in the first place.

He did produce solid reliable financial results, grow the airline, and made some good growth decisions along the way (Buenos Aires, Houston, Chicago) as well as some less good (Vietnam and Phillipines). I see him as consolidating after the transformative Fyfe era rather than bringing much new. Useful work but not exciting.

People are touting him as a new John Key, but re-reading my description above I'd see him as more Bill English than John Key. Safe. Reliable. Cost-cutting. I may be totally off the mark here though as I haven't followed him that closely (despite feeling the need to write several paragraphs here about his AIR career).

Also, did someone mention about that Roger has gone? That is also a bit of a loss too. I'll probably miss him more than I will miss CL.

[macduffy]

That crossed my mind as well. Has a non banker ever got a CEO job with a bank? Or should that not matter?

Not likely. CEO will be appointed by the parent, ANZ Bank, and they will want a banker, ie one of their own choice, in the CEO's job.

[Lola]

Not likely. CEO will be appointed by the parent, ANZ Bank, and they will want a banker, ie one of their own choice, in the CEO's job.

Whats so sacrosanct about a banker in the job.?.
many of them have stuffed up.
Rbnz would have to “approve the person as being capable of doing the job”
But that doesn’t say he or she has to be a banker.

[Raz]

Whats so sacrosanct about a banker in the job.?.
many of them have stuffed up.
Rbnz would have to “approve the person as being capable of doing the job”
But that doesn’t say he or she has to be a banker.

Moving back to AIR, interesting to see where yields head with all these discounted airfares in the past few months. Some of the lowest prices I have ever seen on AIR. Instead of being a premium over the competition for once they have been the cheapest by some margin.

[Marilyn Munroe]

The best thing Wing Commander Luxon did was pull the rip cord on Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) and push them out of the plane.

His biggest missed opportunity was failing to flog Cullen Airlines off to Etihad when they were paying silly money for airlines. Now that Etihad is in a financial stall the taxpayers could have brought it back at a large discount. Think of the transaction as a reverse Cullen.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Marilyn Munroe]

If I was the Emir of Etihad I would be offering Wing Commander Luxon gold frankincense and myr to entice him to take on the job of sorting out Etihad.

He could even offer Michael Cullen a supporting role where he would hide in a cupboard and when the Wing Commander wanted advice he opens the door asks for advice and then does the opposite.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[value_investor]

Interesting news out of the Paris Air Show, the new A321 XLR has been announced, a slighter longer range aircraft with better economy on this mid distance trips. Qantas and Air Asia converting their A321 orders into the XLR variant. I wonder if AIR would do the same, especially given the competition with Jetstar. It would give them huge coverage in the Asia market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLfyOd3Vedk

[777]

Asia is not "mid distance"

[Raz]

JIT with a know weak line in supply...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730517/air-nz-quits-after-losing-case-against-z-energy-over-marsden-pipeline-damage

[Raz]

JIT with a know weak line in supply...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730517/air-nz-quits-after-losing-case-against-z-energy-over-marsden-pipeline-damage

Come home to all the noise on the Koru lounges, just reminds me how badly this airline, in some aspects, has been run for a long time.

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/114417822/plane-makes-emergency-landing-at-christchurch-airport

Second incident recently I understand.

Co-incidence hopefully.

[Joshuatree]

Family member had an int experience a week or so ago here. The plane couldn't take off because they couldn't shut the door! Seems the closest engineers were in Ch Ch!!? so they had to disembark and wait for another plane.

[Ggcc]

Family member had an int experience a week or so ago here. The plane couldn't take off because they couldn't shut the door! Seems the closest engineers were in Ch Ch!!? so they had to disembark and wait for another plane.
It is happening far more than I am comfortable with. I have had more than a few reports of flights cancelled or postponed this last year due to problems, from both Jetstar and AIR. People having to drive from Napier to Auckland to get their connecting flights. I am a little hesitant in investing in AIR for this reason. I do wonder if this is just me, or is it happening more frequently

[Leftfield]

Recently flew AIR International and not impressed with all the hidden extra charges for seats/food etc.

A downwards slide in service, plus trends like 'Flight Shame' (click here) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europes-flight-shame-movement-has-travelers-taking-trains-to-save-the-planet/2019/08/02/1bd38486-ac96-11e9-9411-a608f9d0c2d3_story.html?utm_term=.0794ab100f92) could make future headwinds for AIR.

Take care holders.

[McGinty]

Will be trying out Air NZ's long haul service to Chicago next month. I noticed while booking that they've included all the meals/entertainment in the basic fare (but maybe this has always been the case with the long haul flights).

My return flight was $400 so could really say no to a bargain.

Travelled with Singapore Airlines back from London in May so it will be good to compare (as I thought Singapore was excellent)

[Snow Leopard]

Discovered I am flying out of Baku tomorrow on a E190 and I am hoping that it is this one:

https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=75435

Air Astana Snow Leopard (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/pictures-air-astana-receives-e190-e2-in-snow-leop-454092/)

Which made me wonder: Why do Air NZ not have any planes painted up as Kiwi, Kakapo etc?

As for flight shame:
I have been asked how long the ferry takes from New Zealand to Australia on several occasions over the last few months, but at the end of the day if you want to get into or out of NZ you need to get on a plane, and if you want to get around God's Own then you either have plenty of time or you need to get on a plane.

Still the future of AIR is that of any airline, highly volatile.

[stoploss]

Discovered I am flying out of Baku tomorrow on a E190 and I am hoping that it is this one:

https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=75435

Air Astana Snow Leopard (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/pictures-air-astana-receives-e190-e2-in-snow-leop-454092/)

Which made me wonder: Why do Air NZ not have any planes painted up as Kiwi, Kakapo etc?

As for flight shame:
I have been asked how long the ferry takes from New Zealand to Australia on several occasions over the last few months, but at the end of the day if you want to get into or out of NZ you need to get on a plane, and if you want to get around God's Own then you either have plenty of time or you need to get on a plane.

Still the future of AIR is that of any airline, highly volatile.

Not too sure about the wisdom of putting a Flightless bird on a plane .....

[winner69]

Data breach at AIR

Hope the hackers don’t see how few status credits I have

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/air-new-zealand-warns-airpoints-customer-data-may-have-been-breached

[winner69]

Alan Joyce from Qantas a good guy ....stuff the flight shamers

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/qantas-ceo-alan-joyce-warns-against-climate-change-panic

[winner69]

Data breach at AIR

Hope the hackers don’t see how few status credits I have

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/air-new-zealand-warns-airpoints-customer-data-may-have-been-breached

I wonder what a ‘staff account’ is in this matter

Sounds ominous - AIR going to the pack (culturally)

[Beagle]

Looking forward to the annual result on 22 August and the juicy dividend in Sept.
Interesting tidbit for anyone contemplating this for dividend income. Chris Luxon mentioned at the half year result conference call that AIR had only reduced its dividends twice before. After 9/11 and the GFC.

22 cents fully imputed per annum = 30.56 cents per share gross and on $2.75 that's 11.1% ! I think barring a major exogenous shock of the type referred to in this post, that's sustainable for the foreseeable future and with interest rates so incredibly low, basically in unchartered territory, its highly attractive for dividend hounds.
Sure there's risk, but there's risk in every share.

[Blue Skies]

Looking forward to the annual result on 22 August and the juicy dividend in Sept.
Interesting tidbit for anyone contemplating this for dividend income. Chris Luxon mentioned at the half year result conference call that AIR had only reduced its dividends twice before. After 9/11 and the GFC.

22 cents fully imputed per annum = 30.56 cents per share gross and on $2.75 that's 11.1% ! I think barring a major exogenous shock of the type referred to in this post, that's sustainable for the foreseeable future and with interest rates so incredibly low, basically in unchartered territory, its highly attractive for dividend hounds.
Sure there's risk, but there's risk in every share.


Couldn't agree more, amazing dividend & a place for Air in every portfolio (def mine anyway & the dividends over the years have basically almost given me free shares) . Often compared/put in a basket with all airlines in general, but it's not. Healthy part of NZ inc depends on tourism & due to our relative geographical isolation therefore a strong AIR. (i.e. govt would never allow a situation where we were solely at the whim of overseas carriers)

[iceman]

Couldn't agree more, amazing dividend & a place for Air in every portfolio (def mine anyway & the dividends over the years have basically almost given me free shares) . Often compared/put in a basket with all airlines in general, but it's not. Healthy part of NZ inc depends on tourism & due to our relative geographical isolation therefore a strong AIR. (i.e. govt would never allow a situation where we were solely at the whim of overseas carriers)

Good point that I have highlighted above in your post Blue Skies. One issue that I have not seen mentioned much on this thread but deserves a mention is the strategy followed by Tourism NZ. They have deliberately stayed away from low cost carriers in their promotions and based their strategy instead largely around legacy carriers, even assisting them in various ways to start up new routes in and out of NZ.
Many other countries fighting for the tourism dollar have done it differently and encouraged lots of low cost carriers, many of whom are now going bankrupt or are withdrawing from unprofitable routes.

I think Tourism NZ has done very well with this strategy for NZ Inc and along the way assisted more reliable legacy carriers like AIR NZ, Qantas, Hawaiian, Southern China and more. This has also given local tourism operators much more certainty which can be seen in the fact that even though tourism growth has slowed in NZ and the World, last numbers from Statistics NZ show a 2% growth in the last 12 months, while many countries are experiencing big declines. Steady as she goes.

[RTM]

So based on all the above, which I largely agree with, it would seem that the share price might need to increase a bit. $3.00, $3.20 ?
Disc: Holding @ $2.24.

[Beagle]

So based on all the above, which I largely agree with, it would seem that the share price might need to increase a bit. $3.00, $3.20 ?
Disc: Holding @ $2.24.
That's the $64,000 question !

On one hand we have seen a real flight to safety and have all noticed the share prices of safe gentailiers and REIT's move considerably northward so the temptation is definitely there to think that a stock with a reasonably safe assurance regarding yield, has been overlooked. But what does reasonably safe assurance regarding yield mean in this world we live in today ?

On one hand we have the 10 year Government bond rate having declined by over 150 basis points in recent months, which itself has valuation implications northwards, a PE of about 1.5 more, all other factors being equal should follow which suggests a rerating is possible. But are all other factors remaining equal ?

On the other hand when we look at the reasons for that massive shift in the risk free rate, (fears of a global trade war) and taking into account the possible effect on AIR its easy to make the case that the extra risk of same counteracts the above possible valuation implications.

AIR is cyclical and we have already seen a material reduction in the growth rate of inbound tourism. I think its unwise to completely rule out the possibility of a GFC Mk 2.
I'm of the view that a rerating is unlikely at this stage, (until the drum beats of a trade war reduce to a lot lower intensity) and the shares are presently trading at about fair value.

We might get a small rerating in due course if the market approves of the new chief in command of the rudder controls. Somebody with a proven track record of cost control would appear to be a good choice at this point.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d575cd93/air-nz-share-price-supported-by-solid-dividend-yield-says-jarden.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Air%20NZ%20share%20price%20supported% 20by%20solid%20dividend%20yield%20says%20Jarden&utm_content=Air%20NZ%20share%20price%20supported%2 0by%20solid%20dividend%20yield%20says%20Jarden+CID _f4bd836c9bcf7e137846e7653f0b1006&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled575cd93air-nz-share-price-supported-by-solid-dividend-yield-says-jardenhtml

FWIW I have a 2.5% portfolio allocation to AIR at present with a bias towards moving that up towards 3.5-4.0% in the near term purely for reasons of portfolio yield enhancement with no real expectations of any near term capital gain from such a possible move. Lets see what the annual result looks like.

[RTM]

That's the $64,000 question !


FWIW I have a 2.5% portfolio allocation to AIR at present with a bias towards moving that up towards 3.5-4.0% in the near term purely for reasons of portfolio yield enhancement with no real expectations of any near term capital gain from such a possible move. Lets see what the annual result looks like.

Interesting.
My allocation currently is 3.97 %. Would like to take it higher but I suspect it will re-rate higher, perhaps approaching 5%.
So while I would like to buy more, probably won’t. Maybe I should use Horus’s method and consider my %’s based on cost price. Doesn’t feel right tho.

[Beagle]

Interesting.
My allocation currently is 3.97 %. Would like to take it higher but I suspect it will re-rate higher, perhaps approaching 5%.
So while I would like to buy more, probably won’t. Maybe I should use Horus’s method and consider my %’s based on cost price. Doesn’t feel right tho.

https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
You could be right, average view of analysts is this is the low point of the cycle. I am probably a little bit underweight on where I want to be with this one.

[winner69]

Luxon talks about electric planes


Not a good start in Norway
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-crash-idUSKCN1V423N

[Beagle]

That's "shocking"... you see what I did there :D

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12257288

Speaking of shocking...I think CAA are in quite a mess and speaking of mess's a senior AIR engineer told me on the weekend the last Airbus they received had a rag left inside one of the fuel containers that had "interesting" consequences.

On the subject of mess's, doubt this Hong Kong situation will end well. Wonder how many AIR flights are going to be affected ?

[traineeinvestor]

On the subject of mess's, doubt this Hong Kong situation will end well. Wonder how many AIR flights are going to be affected ?

Reporting in from ground zero.

It won't help AIR at all. Any gains they make through picking up passengers from the partial boycott of Cathay Pacific (instigated by a number of PRC controlled companies), will, I suspect, be overshadowed by reduced numbers of passengers coming to or transiting through Hong Kong + (possibly) increased discounting as Cathay Pacific tries to keep its planes full. There may also be opportunities to grow routes flying directly into the rest of China as PRC travellers look to skip the usual shopping excursion in HK on their way through to NZ. There's already been a huge drop in tourist numbers and business travel to the SAR (unsurprisingly) and the general held view is that it will be a very long time before those numbers start returning to normal.

Obviously, all this is pretty speculative but at best AIR might do a little better and more likely a little worse.

Disc: not held

[winner69]

AIR featuring this plane in current marketing campaigns

As somebody has pointed out its an unfortunate marketing to chose an aircraft that's literally spent most of the past two years parked up broken firstly due to the major engine failure and then earlier this year being hit by a catering truck.

Still seems to be out of action

Broken and not going that well...yes does sound like the All Blacks

[Beagle]

Yeap - 1 nightmare liner still parked up according to my friend.

[winner69]

A Singapore A350-900 flying into Wellington while the surfers look on will look pretty cool

Makes WLG/MEL/SIN and onwards to Europe that much more attractive

[winner69]

Reasonable start to year ... revenue wise anyway

ASK up 4.2% but RASK down 1.3% so revenue up on last year

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/air.nzx-339432/

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12260673

Comes across as a diligent type of chap in the conference calls but lacks any charisma so I am hoping this really is a temporary appointment.

[Benny1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12260673

Comes across as a diligent type of chap in the conference calls but lacks any charisma so I am hoping this really is a temporary appointment.
Says he's not seeking the role permanently..
Wonder if they have had a late application from the now resigned CEO of Cathy Pacific??
Although they are probably seeking a more inclusive and diverse type of role model... Seems to be all the rage now...

[Beagle]

Says he's not seeking the role permanently..
Wonder if they have had a late application from the now resigned CEO of Cathy Pacific??
Although they are probably seeking a more inclusive and diverse type of role model... Seems to be all the rage now...

A prerequisite for senior management now seems to be having attended a vast range of cultural, ethnicity, language and gender sensitivity courses. Such fun !

[winner69]

So $374m ...worst result for many years .....AIR going through an earnings recession

But bullish as on next year ...earnings up 20% to $450m (but they could be less and AIRs early estimates usually a bit bullish)

Whatever awesome result in the circumstances ....even though had to call in external consultants to fix things.p (I’m told that’s not always a good look)


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305886.pdf

[bull....]

So $374m ...worst result for many years .....AIR going through an earnings recession

But bullish as on next year ...earnings up 20% to $450m (but they could be less and AIRs early estimates usually a bit bullish)

Whatever awesome result in the circumstances ....even though had to call in external consultants to fix things.p (I’m told that’s not always a good look)


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305886.pdf

i would say there earnings range of 360 - 450m implies a likely downgrade for next yr in profit if they usually start of optimistic and downgrade as the yr progresses


auckland airport results are implying next to no growth next yr and a downgrade in profit.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305887.pdf
Revenue, average analyst expectation $5.76b, actual result $5.8b - meet expectations
Operating Profit, average analyst expectation $365m actual result $374m - beat expectations
Net Profit after tax , average analyst expectation $254m, actual result $270m - beat expectations
FY20 outlook, average analyst expectation $420 operating profit, guidance $350m - $450m, mid point $400m - softer outlook
Dividend maintained.

Net effect is neutral and I maintain my holding for dividend yield and am not expecting any break out of the recent trading range.

[Arbroath]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305887.pdf
Revenue, average analyst expectation $5.76b, actual result $5.8b - meet expectations
Operating Profit, average analyst expectation $365m actual result $374m - beat expectations
Net Profit after tax , average analyst expectation $254m, actual result $270m - beat expectations
FY20 outlook, average analyst expectation $420 operating profit, guidance $350m - $450m, mid point $400m - softer outlook
Dividend maintained.

Net effect is neutral and I maintain my holding for dividend yield and am not expecting any break out of the recent trading range.

And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.

[Blue Skies]

And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.

Agreed, and with the Govt (who ultimately controls all the levers) depending on those juicy dividends to continue, am happy to go along for the ride.

[Beagle]

And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.

Yes it certainly is a fantastic yield in this era of interest rates at unchartered lifetime low's.
In terms of its sustainability. A few thoughts. At the last conference call they noted they had only cut the dividend twice in the airlines history, after 9/11 and the GFC.
Barring another one of those events or some similar sized exogenous shock I think there is a very high probability the dividend is sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Average analyst view is actually for it to increase to 23 cps next year and 24 cps in FY21 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

As you note, capex for the next 4 years is very benign, mostly about $500m but FY21 under $400m and well below annual depreciation of $567m for FY19 and forecast depreciation of approx. $637m for FY20, (extra $70m expected next year, source, just completed conference call). Over the next 4 years based on my analysis annual average capex is approx. $160m less than depreciation so that gives an interesting insight into their ability to pay ongoing strong dividends in the medium term.

I tend to back out any immediate term dividend, (as partial return of capital invested) from forward yield calculations so my "look through" view on the yield at $2.72 taking a medium term investment view is $2.72 less the almost immediate return of 11 cents = $2.61 net investment for the medium term. 23 cents fully imputed for FY20 = 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps gross and on a net investment of $2.61 = 12.2% Gross yield. I am a very happy holder at that level and added more this morning.

[winner69]

Trust NBR to say this CEO pay up while staff dividend down.

[Raz]

And what a great yield it is Beagle...gross 11.2% at $2.72
I think they can maintain it for several years and they keep referring to the ordianry dividend as sustainable which I think they believe.
Add in the young fleet age and relatively lowm capex in the next 3-4 years and it is easy to see with their operating cash flow that a dividend cut is relatively unlikely and there is always the prospect of a special dividend at some stage as gearing falls back again.
Agree, a breakout over $3 is unlikely but I'm a happy holder at these levels for the yield in a low rate world.

The captive domestic market and solid brand appeals to older kiwi's going overseas..if they can't pay the dividend the economy will be heading to hell and that will be an issue for all NZ asset classes.,

[Beagle]

Agreed Raz. Travel almost a consumer staple now days.
Interesting potential upside for AIR if JetStar pull the regional pin after years of losses. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ea5fa39b/jetstar-losing-money-on-regional-nz-services-watching-market-closely.html

Very solid result for QAN today. Winner, I reckon AIR are right to undertake some international benchmarking on their operations and if they have to employ outside consults to do so, so be it. Apparently Jayne Herdlicka has been rampant with using outside consultants this year and ATM are so successful that it must be back in vogue again eh :)

[RTM]

Get ready for a drop holders, I just topped up to make it 5.57% of my portfolio.
Personally I think the share price may correct higher, as the dividend % is to high.
Yes, I agree, to simplistic.
We’ll see I guess.
And yes Beagle, more than 5%. It did neatly use my cash in DB tho.

[Beagle]

Get ready for a drop holders, I just topped up to make it 5.57% of my portfolio.
Personally I think the share price may correct higher, as the dividend % is to high.
Yes, I agree, to simplistic.
We’ll see I guess.
And yes Beagle, more than 5%. It did neatly use my cash in DB tho.


I tend to back out any immediate term dividend, (as partial return of capital invested) from forward yield calculations so my "look through" view on the yield at $2.72 taking a medium term investment view is $2.72 less the almost immediate return of 11 cents = $2.61 net investment for the medium term. 23 cents fully imputed for FY20 = 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps gross and on a net investment of $2.61 = 12.2% Gross yield. I am a very happy holder at that level and added more this morning.

FWIW mate the above was a bit of an understatement as I didn't want to be accused of ramping, probably will be now LOL. I have backed my own analysis and tripled the size of my holding this morning. Yes, tripled, that's not a typo.

12.2% gross and being a dividend hound is like dangling a juicy bone in front of a Beagle, what's he going to do other than bite :D
6.7% portfolio position now :)
Now we have a decent holding we must remember to only use paper doggy bag's in the event of extreme turbulence as we wouldn't want to upset the greenie's and use plastic ones ! Seat belt firmly fastened and off we go... Slight concern with not knowing who the new chief pilot is yet but nothing ventured nothing gained...lets see how we go.

Conference call replay available here https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/gnvtv7ir

[RTM]

F
6.7% portfolio position now :)


No more buying Beagle...no more. Be a good dog.
We have enough.

What annoys me most is I sold about the same number in 2017 @ 273 !

[Joshuatree]

Heres Qantas results . EPS flat to down , shareprice up 1.4% to $5.86.Outlook mainly flat. Div 13 c (25c FY) DY 4.26%. No contest ehh:)
Download Document 1.56MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4gi7y BL3v%2BZ48bFiGug%3D)

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/direct-auckland-invercargill-flight-marks-start-of-regular-jet-service/ar-AAGipSE?ocid=spartandhp

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/115349242/virgin-australia-to-review-routes-and-cut-750-roles-on-fullyear-loss

7 years of losses in a row. WOW...and some of those years with fuel prices at very low level's. What a mutt !!

[Raz]

virgin is nasty, checking in from NZ2, two hours out from LAX, waiting on breakfast, plane half empty, first time I have seen this in the past four years, crew equally surprised so clearly not a trend, wifi before everyone wakes up is great!!

[bull....]

lower oil prices coming should be good for air

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-08-28/u-s-pipelines-to-significantly-increase-oil-production-yergin-says-video

[Beagle]

Oil prices and their future direction aside, I think AIR is looking good in the current circumstances with Virgin crashing to its 7th loss in a row and announcing serious route retrenchment and Qantas admitting their subsidiary JetStar is losing money on regional routes and they are watching the situation closely. We've also seen some other carriers rationalise their capacity and routes to N.Z. An over used phrase but "well positioned" does spring to mind.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Oil prices and their future direction aside, I think AIR is looking good in the current circumstances with Virgin crashing to its 7th loss in a row and announcing serious route retrenchment and Qantas admitting their subsidiary JetStar is losing money on regional routes and they are watching the situation closely. We've also seen some other carriers rationalise their capacity and routes to N.Z. An over used phrase but "well positioned" does spring to mind.

I agree. A small bugbear is their ongoing approach to brand and marketing. The old K.I.S.S. principle never lead anyway astray, did it?

My only long-term issue with AIR (and its an issue for the whole industry) is climate change. Air travel is extremely unattractive to an increasing part of our population. My family already avoids flying wherever possible. This isn't biting now, and may not for some time, but I believe that time is coming.

[Beagle]

Welcome to the forum. From memory AIR recently announced only about 5% of people pay for the optional carbon offset as part of the price of their ticket.
Plant a couple of native trees and fly wherever you like I reckon :)

[Arthur]

Welcome to the forum. From memory AIR recently announced only about 5% of people pay for the optional carbon offset as part of the price of their ticket.
Plant a couple of native trees and fly wherever you like I reckon :)
Their Carbon offset is incredibly cheap, they do not take other emissions into account, which may or maynot be the right thing to do. Interestingly I heard a presentation from a fund manager whose "ethical fund"screens for the best in sector. AirNZ was their pick of the best airline, surprisingly Singapore airlines was the worst from their selection criteria.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Their Carbon offset is incredibly cheap, they do not take other emissions into account, which may or maynot be the right thing to do. Interestingly I heard a presentation from a fund manager whose "ethical fund"screens for the best in sector. AirNZ was their pick of the best airline, surprisingly Singapore airlines was the worst from their selection criteria.
Yes Arthur, this is my understanding too - AirNZ offset looks very cheap to me, but we do always opt in to it. Flying from Christchurch to Auckland next month and it was something like $10 offset for the whole family. Doesn't seem right. We will offset elsewhere as well to keep our conscience clean. Its a pity AirNZ don't offer some other mechanism for customers to get involved in offsetting or carbon activism more proactively - it is the kind of thing that with their scale, market share and infrastructure they could readily put a foot forward and lead the industry both regionally and globally. Anyway, I'll get off my high (also carbon-emitting) horse!

And thanks Beagle for the welcome.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305892.pdf

Half way through reading my hard copy of this which arrived today. Sad that Chris Luxon is leaving. You can't buy leadership of that quality for love or money and he will be sorely missed. I think my most enduring memory of the strength of his leadership was when he stood up to the other directors and CEO of Virgin and told them that the Virgin CEO Borgetthi, (forget how to spell his name) had to go. When they wouldn't back him he resigned as a director of Virgin as a matter of principle and then extricated AIR as a shareholder from this dog of a company and the rest including a 25 cent special divvy for AIR shareholders while the remaining shareholders in Virgin have gone on to endure 7 consecutive shocking years of losses, as they say is history. I think I have attended most of AIR's annual meetings over the years and really enjoyed chatting to Chris Luxon afterwards. A real gentleman that seems to have the unique knack of being able to easily relate to people from all walks of life.

Virgin in recent times from this https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12215405
to this https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12263320
I think Virgin shareholders are on a road to nowhere.

[Arthur]

Yes Arthur, this is my understanding too - AirNZ offset looks very cheap to me, but we do always opt in to it. Flying from Christchurch to Auckland next month and it was something like $10 offset for the whole family. Doesn't seem right. We will offset elsewhere as well to keep our conscience clean. Its a pity AirNZ don't offer some other mechanism for customers to get involved in offsetting or carbon activism more proactively - it is the kind of thing that with their scale, market share and infrastructure they could readily put a foot forward and lead the industry both regionally and globally. Anyway, I'll get off my high (also carbon-emitting) horse!

And thanks Beagle for the welcome.

You can opt in to buy extra carbon offset. My environmentally conscious son won a scholarship that sent him to Europe for a month. The organisation booked him to fly an airline that did not give a carbon offset option, so we paid for them on the AirNZ website instead.
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/loyaltymodule/form/carbon-emissions-offset

[see weed]

Bought into AIR couple of weeks ago for the div. The share price seems to be holding up fairly well today, maybe because the yield is 7.80%, might keep them a bit longer at that rate.

[winner69]

On the radio the other day there was a good interview with some guru taking about Board governance etc. can’t remember who

One point he made is that most Board members are pretty slack at talking to senior management and high flyers and this comment was in the context of ‘assessing’ who would make a great CEO (if developed for the job)

He also went on that most Boards are pretty slack in succession planning and then find that Hey panic when the CEO leaves.

I’d say AIR wouldn’t rate very highly with this guy. No permanent replacement for Luxon ...hmm. He nearly left a few years ago (rumour) to join Fonterra but a multi million stay on package fixed that. Luxon seemed bored lately and for some time there has been rumours about him moving on and/or politics being his future.

Has AIR Board been asleep at the wheel?

[iceman]

About time someone in the airline industry calls a spade a spade. It is concerning how unreliable new planes and engines have become in the last 2-4 years and not surprising the World's largest airline has had enough.
Also Norwegian, with its large fleet of Dreamliners and MAX, fighting to stave off bankruptcy with emergency negotiations with bondholders after being very badly effected by the MAX issues on top of already big losses.

Tough situation for the industry https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12265134

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

On the radio the other day there was a good interview with some guru taking about Board governance etc. can’t remember who

One point he made is that most Board members are pretty slack at talking to senior management and high flyers and this comment was in the context of ‘assessing’ who would make a great CEO (if developed for the job)

He also went on that most Boards are pretty slack in succession planning and then find that Hey panic when the CEO leaves.

I’d say AIR wouldn’t rate very highly with this guy. No permanent replacement for Luxon ...hmm. He nearly left a few years ago (rumour) to join Fonterra but a multi million stay on package fixed that. Luxon seemed bored lately and for some time there has been rumours about him moving on and/or politics being his future.

Has AIR Board been asleep at the wheel?

Re: Luxon, I hear what you're saying, but there aren't many more prestigious jobs in NZ than CEO of Air NZ... if he's been bored in that role there aren't many steps up unless he's headed to the US or the UK, or he thinks he's going to walk in to politics as the PM. The grass is always greener...

Re: The Board, I doubt they haven't been thinking succession planning, but maybe no one they'd been grooming internally has stepped up enough and now they need to cast the net wider. Its a massively important decision for the business so would rather they take their time and get the decision right.

[bull....]

Air NZ's surprise ambush on Auckland airport and why travellers could winhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/115585876/air-nzs-surprise-ambush-on-auckland-airport-and-why-travellers-could-win

luxon got good vision , auckland will need a second airport in the future better to do it now ( well should have been done before all the housing was built but NZ leaders have typically never had much vision maybe except robbie and his trams or rail was it). auckland airport will never service 3 million people let alone the roads to the airport.

[mondograss]

Air NZ's surprise ambush on Auckland airport and why travellers could winhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/115585876/air-nzs-surprise-ambush-on-auckland-airport-and-why-travellers-could-win

luxon got good vision , auckland will need a second airport in the future better to do it now ( well should have been done before all the housing was built but NZ leaders have typically never had much vision maybe except robbie and his trams or rail was it). auckland airport will never service 3 million people let alone the roads to the airport.

Doesn't Sydney airport service about 4.5m? All the time the council owns a big chunk of AIA I can't see them letting it happen and it would be electoral suicide for most politicians I'd have thought, West Auckland and the North Shore would both be dead against being under the flight plan of a Whenuapai commercial airport. I used to live in Beach Haven just over the water from Whenuapai and the community would quite regularly get up in arms about the RNZAF doing their night training etc.

[bull....]

Doesn't Sydney airport service about 4.5m? All the time the council owns a big chunk of AIA I can't see them letting it happen and it would be electoral suicide for most politicians I'd have thought, West Auckland and the North Shore would both be dead against being under the flight plan of a Whenuapai commercial airport. I used to live in Beach Haven just over the water from Whenuapai and the community would quite regularly get up in arms about the RNZAF doing their night training etc.

the driving time from the shore to the airport is over an hour most of the time . thats the issue would be much quicker to drive up the road to whenuapai. your right about no one wants anything in there backyard human nature. thats why its a shame not many politicians have vision.

[mondograss]

the driving time from the shore to the airport is over an hour most of the time . thats the issue would be much quicker to drive up the road to whenuapai. your right about no one wants anything in there backyard human nature. thats why its a shame not many politicians have vision.

True, I always used to allow an hour to get there when I was on the Shore, but at the same time the communities that would get quicker access to the airport are the very same communities that would be so negatively impacted by having it there. Can't have it both ways.

If you were going to put a second airport to the north you'd be better off to develop the North Shore Airport at Dairy Flat. You've got SH1 just east of it and the Dairy Flat highway on the west side. Just need to develop the Coatesville-Riverhead highway between Dairy Flat and SH16 and you'd open up that whole North-West area for growth.

[Leftfield]

Air NZ's surprise ambush on Auckland airport and why travellers could win

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/115585876/air-nzs-surprise-ambush-on-auckland-airport-and-why-travellers-could-win

luxon got good vision , auckland will need a second airport in the future better to do it now ( well should have been done before all the housing was built but NZ leaders have typically never had much vision maybe except robbie and his trams or rail was it). auckland airport will never service 3 million people let alone the roads to the airport.

If the new terminus is limited to Domestic flights it's going to be a long walk between the existing International Terminus and the new Domestic Terminus. How's that going to work?

[Marilyn Munroe]

About time someone in the airline industry calls a spade a spade. It is concerning how unreliable new planes and engines have become in the last 2-4 years and not surprising the World's largest airline has had enough.
Also Norwegian, with its large fleet of Dreamliners and MAX, fighting to stave off bankruptcy with emergency negotiations with bondholders after being very badly effected by the MAX issues on top of already big losses.

Tough situation for the industry https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12265134

During peak oil prices airlines were screaming at engine manufacturers;

We want engines that can run on the smell of an oily rag,

We want them big and powerful so we can get away with only two engines on our big planes, and

We want it now.

Something had to give.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[nzspeak]

A new airport? in this day in age? baby boomers feel they have a the right to veto any construction within 100KM of their house. I was talking to a city planner recently, he called it democracy in action. Really it's just protectionism, no different the import taxes/quotas and it will probably last as long as the last baby boomer- at least another 20 years. The construction sector is like the labour market of the 1970s.

[see weed]

Yes it certainly is a fantastic yield in this era of interest rates at unchartered lifetime low's.
In terms of its sustainability. A few thoughts. At the last conference call they noted they had only cut the dividend twice in the airlines history, after 9/11 and the GFC.
Barring another one of those events or some similar sized exogenous shock I think there is a very high probability the dividend is sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Average analyst view is actually for it to increase to 23 cps next year and 24 cps in FY21 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

As you note, capex for the next 4 years is very benign, mostly about $500m but FY21 under $400m and well below annual depreciation of $567m for FY19 and forecast depreciation of approx. $637m for FY20, (extra $70m expected next year, source, just completed conference call). Over the next 4 years based on my analysis annual average capex is approx. $160m less than depreciation so that gives an interesting insight into their ability to pay ongoing strong dividends in the medium term.

I tend to back out any immediate term dividend, (as partial return of capital invested) from forward yield calculations so my "look through" view on the yield at $2.72 taking a medium term investment view is $2.72 less the almost immediate return of 11 cents = $2.61 net investment for the medium term. 23 cents fully imputed for FY20 = 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps gross and on a net investment of $2.61 = 12.2% Gross yield. I am a very happy holder at that level and added more this morning.
22/8/19. SP holding up with such a good yield. Have decided to not sell for a while and let it ride. Some of those power company buyers might come over for a higher yield.

[whome]

I think of the baby boomers as those born in the 50’s. NIMBY’s more likely to be the silver spoon generation from a decade or so later.

[whome]

Good repost, Seeweed, of Beagle’s AIR analysis, and a nice reminder of what really matters on ST. Posted from a beautiful Bure setting at Plantation Is, Fiji. Great to have some time to catch up on posts.

[winner69]

Think beagle flew Jetstar down south for his ski trip

No shareholder discount ...and when using divie money you still want best deal eh

Doesn’t matter who you fly with apparently it still takes the best part of an hour to get through security at Queenstown

[Beagle]

The Beagle has landed :) Chris likes me so I got free flights...or maybe it was just my airpoints lol.
Good week away and what a week on the market up over 4% !, makes us all look like genius's doesn't it !
Getting harder to find any semblance of value on the NZX but I feel there are pockets of value that have still been a little overlooked, unsurprisingly these are in stocks I already own, not that I'm biased even in the slightest :lol:
P.S. 5 minutes through Queenstown security and less than 1 minute at Auckland but I did get a "bonus" pat down at Auckland because I forgot to take my fancy gold watch off.

Even after the nice little rally in AIR over the last couple of weeks the gross forecast yield is still 11.2% at $2.86 ex divvy. Where else do you get a yield like that ?

[percy]

4%in one week.!!!
Perhaps we could all chip in for you to have more weeks away.?..lol.

[Beagle]

4%in one week.!!!
Perhaps we could all chip in for you to have more weeks away.?..lol.

Should have done that eh lol
Market falling now and although I'm back I can't be bothered doing any work.

[percy]

May have to get Couta1 to start a "Give a little" site/thread "Beagle needs another break."
Just so we all can enjoy another 4% boost to our portfolios...lol.

[Beagle]

Its okay, I don't need the financial help, especially not after last week lol. Next year Couta1 is keen for me to stay for twice as long anyway so we can look forward to an 8% portfolio accretion then :)

[winner69]

Did AIR go ex-div today or something

Back into the 270s

[stoploss]

Did AIR go ex-div today or something

Back into the 270s

Maybe it was like in the good old days
XD,XI,XB 😲

[Snow Leopard]

Did AIR go ex-div today or something

Back into the 270s

Blame this man:
https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/article/718x300/bdb1e5343eb50b97399612ef1197fbc8.jpg

oilprice.com (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Rises-As-New-Saudi-Oil-Minister-Hints-At-Further-Cuts.html)

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f0a31815/tourist-numbers-rise-in-july-as-more-australians-americans-visit.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tourist%20numbers%20rise%20in%20July% 20as%20more%20Australians%20Americans%20visit&utm_content=Tourist%20numbers%20rise%20in%20July%2 0as%20more%20Australians%20Americans%20visit+CID_e d86253ca467492c417e434d0cb11465&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef0a31815touris t-numbers-rise-in-july-as-more-australians-americans-visithtml

Tourism numbers doing okay. Couple of new routes opening up for AIR later this year should help too, South Korea and somewhere else, sorry I forget.

[greater fool]

Off topic and redundant.


12212

12213

12214

12215



https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5fff10f1c5b65671988afa5d

Hope the rioters turn up on 20th January in Washington.

Let’s see how brave they are and how many of the scums-of-the-earth are really prepared to die for the Fornicator.

My guess? Not one.


This has all the appearance to me of an incitement to violence. Precisely what you deplore POTUS #45 for.


Incitement to violence? No - it’s a challenge.

The rioters are the ones who are on social media, saying that they do not fear the ring of steel put around Washington and they are not going to be deterred from exercising their rights to overturn the election results - ‘freedom or death’.

I am happy to see if they are true to their word or like the Fornicator, they are full of scum and empty rhetoric.

[44wishlists]

I think it's Taipei Taiwan.

[Beagle]

I think it's Taipei Taiwan.

Thanks, yeah, that's the one.

[Snow Leopard]

They have been flying to Taipei since Nov 18 but gunna bump the frequency to 4, then 5 per week soon

[Snow Leopard]

You may be right, but then again there's this to consider;

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/the-us-is-about-to-send-a-lot-more-oil-into-an-oversupplied-market.html

No may about it.

You post is old hat, my guy is new hat. :)

[value_investor]

I'm happy to hold this for the long term despite a lack of share appreciation for the yield. I'm quite surprised this one didn't get a bit of appreciation on the back of the latest irrational increases in some of the companies on the market.

It could go sub $2.50 after ex dividend and if it gets close to $2 I'll load up on it just for the cash flow. With an new fleet, they'll do better if fuel prices increases as competitors get crowded out too and obviously we know they'll do well if it goes lower.

[Poet]

I'm happy to hold this for the long term despite a lack of share appreciation for the yield. I'm quite surprised this one didn't get a bit of appreciation on the back of the latest irrational increases in some of the companies on the market.

It could go sub $2.50 after ex dividend and if it gets close to $2 I'll load up on it just for the cash flow. With an new fleet, they'll do better if fuel prices increases as competitors get crowded out too and obviously we know they'll do well if it goes lower.

Was ex dividend on 5 September.

[Beagle]

11.83% gross yield at $2.70 assuming 23 cps fully imputed divvies for FY20.
Interest rates at 100 year lows.

[GR8DAY]

11.83% gross yield at $2.70 assuming 23 cps fully imputed divvies for FY20.
Interest rates at 100 year lows.

Woof, woof. Atamarie.

Can you please show workings for this calculation Beagle.

Kia ora.

[Beagle]

Woof, woof. Atamarie.

Can you please show workings for this calculation Beagle.

Kia ora.

Kia ora GR8DAY Kei te pēhea koe?
23 cents grossed up for imputation credits = 23 / 0.72 = gross of 31.9444 cps. 31.94444 / 270 = 11.83%.
Mōrena

[GR8DAY]

Kia ora GR8DAY Kei te pēhea koe?
23 cents grossed up for imputation credits = 23 / 0.72 = gross of 31.9444 cps. 31.94444 / 270 = 11.83%.
Mōrena


......im kia mihi rawa atu, whakawhirinaki koe he pai?

Whakawhetai mo to awhina..........BEAGLE bro!

[see weed]

I'm happy to hold this for the long term despite a lack of share appreciation for the yield. I'm quite surprised this one didn't get a bit of appreciation on the back of the latest irrational increases in some of the companies on the market.

It could go sub $2.50 after ex dividend and if it gets close to $2 I'll load up on it just for the cash flow. With an new fleet, they'll do better if fuel prices increases as competitors get crowded out too and obviously we know they'll do well if it goes lower.
I am sure with the high yield lots more will be loading up at 2.50 and above. It might struggle to get to $2, but you never know in a little market, anything could happen.

[winner69]

Busy time for a few AIR directors ....the AGM and they meet up again at the Vector one.

[value_investor]

Yikes this could bring the prices down

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/saudi-arabia-is-shutting-down-half-of-its-oil-production-after-drone-attack-wsj-says.html

[Beagle]

Stay calm, AIR have substantial amounts of forward cover on their fuel and exchange rate costs for the next 12 months.

[emveha]

But frankly, do you see the situation in that region improving in the next 12 months and oil prices remaining that low?

[Beagle]

Who knows. Oil production in America is set to ramp up quite significantly in the near term.
AIR basic forward cover methodology is that they take enough cover to give them time to adjust their business model to changing input costs.
Oil goes up and stays up they have to increase fares and other airlines will be likely to rationalise capacity on long skinny routes to this part of the world.

[boysy]

Beagle respect your opinion but US oil production has stagnated - gone no where in the past 6 months ( in fact production has fallen since dec 2018) I think you will find a lot of forecasters are in the process of eating humble pie regarding US LTO projections and are in the process of back tracking production forecasts. Clearly AIR are well placed but a higher POO the will impact all carriers bottom line , end of story ....

[winner69]

F20 guidance is Earnings $350m to $450m .......assuming an average jet fuel price of US$75 per barrel. I presume that guidance takes into account hedging

Doesn’t fuel over US$75m for a period of time imply lower earning than expected?

[Beagle]

F20 guidance is Earnings $350m to $450m .......assuming an average jet fuel price of US$75 per barrel. I presume that guidance takes into account hedging

Doesn’t fuel over US$75m for a period of time imply lower earning than expected?

To some extent within the bounds of competitive constraint yield and fuel costs are inextricably related. It is a mistake to look at oil input costs in complete isolation in my opinion. AIR provided a cost matrix with their most recent annual result. See page 18 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305887.pdf
That matrix can be used to measure the extent of extra costs after provisioning for their forward cover.

Early signs are that Brent futures have moved up about $6 per barrel or approx 10%. I'm not going to endeavour to crunch the numbers at this stage as the situation is too fluid. One must keep in mind that many carriers do not undertake any forward cover at all and one would expect that those who do are in a better position to whether any change. I would expect that airlines will be moving pricing north is oil stays elevated and AIR many be a net beneficiary of yield enhancement after deducting cover from its futures positioning.

Retaliation against the Iranians is something I consider likely now, considering the recent effort by the Iranian republic guard to undermine the freedom of shipping through the straight of Hurmuz. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/15/trump-says-us-is-locked-and-loaded-after-attack-on-saudi-oil-supply.html

Given the extremely limited current oil output from Iran I don't think there will be much further consequential effect on Brent oil futures buy anything is possible in the short term.

AIR are well positioned with very good level's of forward cover on oil futures, unlike many other airlines.

[Beagle]

Kia Ora
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115894042/air-new-zealand-not-actively-pursuing-attempt-to-trademark-kia-ora
Nice to see that divvy hit my account today.

[winner69]

Kia Ora
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115894042/air-new-zealand-not-actively-pursuing-attempt-to-trademark-kia-ora
Nice to see that divvy hit my account today.

They giving up trademarking Kia Ora I hear

[winner69]

"............

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/341225/307983.pdf
Load's are good but RASK is down a bit.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/saudi-arabia-says-attacks-on-oil-sites-were-unquestionably-sponsored-by-iran/ar-AAHuIjU?ocid=spartandhp
I think retribution in the form a measured military strike of some kind against Iran is likely in the near future.
Where it goes and its effect on oil prices from there is anyone's guess but I think a new geopolitical risk premium will apply to Oil going forward for some time so have reduced my stake in AIR temporarily as a prudent risk management measure.

[IAK]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/341225/307983.pdf
Load's are good but RASK is down a bit.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/saudi-arabia-says-attacks-on-oil-sites-were-unquestionably-sponsored-by-iran/ar-AAHuIjU?ocid=spartandhp
I think retribution in the form a measured military strike of some kind against Iran is likely in the near future.
Where it goes and its effect on oil prices from there is anyone's guess but I think a new geopolitical risk premium will apply to Oil going forward for some time so have reduced my stake in AIR temporarily as a prudent risk management measure.

Fair enough, but nice divvie in the bank account today.

[iceman]

European aviation continues major shakeouts https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49791249

[BlackPeter]

European aviation continues major shakeouts https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49791249

Probably more the shakeout of an old fashioned brick and mortar based travel agency which happend to run as well a fleet of charter planes ...

[Beagle]

Thomas Cook failed to adapt, simple as that.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/341492/308306.pdf
Market not exactly enthralled by this capital intensive announcement. All very well to get a bunch of shiny new fuel efficient birds but one would hope they're vastly more reliable that the last lot.
Return on invested capital has been slipping over the years, under 11% now whereas Qantas with its older fleet is getting over 18% !
Looking at depreciation per annum over the last 5 years its clearly evident that this has been rising a lot quicker in percentage terms that the overall sales lift and is increasingly a drag on net profit.
Depreciation expected to be up another $60-70m this year according to their most recent analysts call. Ouch !

What is the point of buying all these very expensive shiny new fuel efficient birds if they just pass on the fuel savings to the customers with lower fares ?
Interestingly by comparison human resources costs have broadly kept in line with the growth rate in overall sales over the last 5 years so the issue really lies with the capital intensity of the business. The current lower rates of return on invested capital is something that definitely warrants keeping a close eye on.

Given the obvious decline in earnings lately I wonder how they are going to drive more efficiency out of the business going forward. Not much point asking Chris Luxon is there...
Yield is great for sure with this one but those looking for capital gains in the years ahead would be best looking elsewhere in my opinion.

[couta1]

Jetstar pulls the pin on regional services, this was so predictable a couple of years back.PS-Doubling their flights to Q/town will keep prices down and keep us snow sports enthusiasts happy.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/jetstar-pulls-pin-on-nz-regional-services/ar-AAHN3ZS?ocid=spartandhp

AIR will now be able to charge a sustainable price on its regional routes that reflects the true cost of operations and a decent return on capital employed.
Good day for AIR shareholders. Happy Beagle.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12270809

[Beagle]

Annual meeting thoughts.

I'm bored already. No change in outlook but they noted fuel has been trading above $U.S.75 Barrel. (just put the prices on regional routes up already and be done with it)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12270903

The Bulldog is at it again.
What he fails to realise is that its quite obvious the current regional pricing is unsustainable and that AIR are perfectly entitled to earn a decent return on their capital employed in the regions. As someone who rarely uses regional air services why should my main trunk airfares subsidise the regions ?
Will the regional travellers subsidise the one hour cost of commuting for me to get to Auckland airport or the $52 it costs for one days parking at Auckland airport ?
I don't think so. I hope AIR's profit in terms of percentage per annum on invested capital returns to more normal level's commensurate with the risks of running an airline. 15% instead of just over 10% would be nice now that we don't have to subsidise regional airfares due to JetStar trying to buy market share any more.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116100925/jetstars-withdrawal-from-regional-routes-bad-for-more-than-just-fare-prices#comments
Some interesting comments. Owner of a major Napier boat manufacturing business told me JetStar's planes were extremely old and their flights were so unreliable in practical business terms they were an entirely unsuitable choice. He also mentioned that most of his business contacts in Napier felt the same way.
If you offer **** service this is what happens, customer stop supporting you. My guess is JetStar's regional loading was well under 70%.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116100925/jetstars-withdrawal-from-regional-routes-bad-for-more-than-just-fare-prices#comments
Some interesting comments. Owner of a major Napier boat manufacturing business told me JetStar's planes were extremely old and their flights were so unreliable in practical business terms they were an entirely unsuitable choice. He also mentioned that most of his business contacts in Napier felt the same way.
If you offer **** service this is what happens, customer stop supporting you. My guess is JetStar's regional loading was well under 70%.

Not exactly like Air NZ is highly reliable....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/109733101/air-new-zealand-not-so-punctual-last-year

Certainly I've experience often lately where may not be necessarily 15 mins late, but closer to 15mins than being on time

Most business people would choose Air NZ anyway, due to Koru lounge, flight times and destination network. JetStar would mainly be the leisure traveler.

[Beagle]

A bit late is one thing, cancellation of flights due to engineering issues, pilot or crew issues another.
My understanding is that JetStar's regional operation was resourced on a very skinny basis with very old planes and very little in reserve for contingencies, spare parts or relief crew. You think a 30+ year old plane might be more than little more unreliable than one that's 7-8 years old on average ?

[Sideshow Bob]

A bit late is one thing, cancellation of flights due to engineering issues, pilot or crew issues another.
My understanding is that JetStar's regional operation was resourced on a very skinny basis with very old planes and very little in reserve for contingencies, spare parts or relief crew. You think a 30+ year old plane might be more than little more unreliable than one that's 7-8 years old on average ?

Certainly JetStar have a reputation to cancelling flights relatively often, with no other alternative - one of the reasons I don't fly with them. Mind you, flying out of ZQN on an AIR ATR, flights are cancelled often enough, with minimal alternative.....

[winner69]

Not exactly like Air NZ is highly reliable....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/109733101/air-new-zealand-not-so-punctual-last-year

Certainly I've experience often lately where may not be necessarily 15 mins late, but closer to 15mins than being on time

Most business people would choose Air NZ anyway, due to Koru lounge, flight times and destination network. JetStar would mainly be the leisure traveler.

Flew WLG /DND the other day .....captain had to ‘reset’ something .....code for something’s not working so we turn it off and wait a bit and then turn it back on .......so we were about 40 minutes late

Jeez ...my laptop reboots faster than that.

[dobby41]

Jeez ...my laptop reboots faster than that.

Your laptop doesn't have the same impact when it goes wrong :scared:

[Beagle]

Flew WLG /DND the other day .....captain had to ‘reset’ something .....code for something’s not working so we turn it off and wait a bit and then turn it back on .......so we were about 40 minutes late

Jeez ...my laptop reboots faster than that.

LOL I suspect there could be one or two more electronic circuits in an aircraft :)

[Beagle]

Hey Winner, great news their sustainability report is out and you can read all about their efforts here. A guaranteed riveting holiday read https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2019-Sustainability-Report.pdf Nice picture of a Dreamliner with the Remarkables in the background...
Can you please condense all this down to one sentence for me, thanks. Something like, we're going to burn more fuel this year and make more money because JetStar has pulled out would make good reading as the rest of it is probably a bunch of politically correct rubbish anyway. :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Hey Winner, great news their sustainability report is out and you can read all about their efforts here. A guaranteed riveting holiday read https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2019-Sustainability-Report.pdf Nice picture of a Dreamliner with the Remarkables in the background...
Can you please condense all this down to one sentence for me, thanks. Something like, we're going to burn more fuel this year and make more money because JetStar has pulled out would make good reading as the rest of it is probably a bunch of politically correct rubbish anyway. :)

Absolutely good on them for doing what they can......but still a very large polluter and an inherently unsustainable industry. But then again, driven by demand from people and if going to change, then people are going to have to change their behaviours.

I also think the offsetting thing is a heap of feel-good rubbish - doesn't address the real issue.

[couta1]

Absolutely good on them for doing what they can......but still a very large polluter and an inherently unsustainable industry. But then again, driven by demand from people and if going to change, then people are going to have to change their behaviours.

I also think the offsetting thing is a heap of feel-good rubbish - doesn't address the real issue. Offsetting a complete waste of time in the biggest brainwashing scam in human history.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/finance/why-jetstars-regional-move-will-definitely-mean-higher-prices/ar-AAHQxJb?ocid=spartandhp
That's really cool. Air don't have to put their prices up, keep them exactly the same and they might end up getting a half way reasonable return on capital employed in the regions.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Propstars aircraft were discards from Queer and Nasty Airlines regional services in Aussie which they tried to sell and couldn't.

So even if Propstars operations were unprofitable as long as they cash flowed Queer and Nasty Airlines were ahead. I'm guessing the trigger for pulling the pin was a flip to negative cash flow.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/peters-hails-major-supergold-card-upgrade/ar-AAI4T3q?ocid=spartandhp

QAN stolen a march on AIR ? AIR need to respond with 50% off everything for everyone over 55 :D

[see weed]

Talking about AIR. sp looking strong lately. Must be the high yld. Power companies looking a bit over the top, maybe some dollars will spill over to AIR for the yield, $3+ here we come:D.

[Beagle]

Yield is supportive for sure mate but I also think JetStar pulling out of the regions will now allow AIR to earn a more reasonable return on capital employed.
Hard to quantify what this is worth in terms of all future more realistic regional returns on a DCF basis into today's share price but I think the SP reaction is reasonable and oil has now returned to pre Saudi oil infrastructure attack level's. I think the clear risk of further attacks by the Iranians cannot be ignored and we live with a much higher geopolitical risk environment going forward so I am neutral on AIR at this level and retain just a modest holding.

I am a little surprised that hasn't been an overt response to the Iranian's aggression. I would think the CIA and Saudi intelligence services are cooperating on subversive reprisals as well as the harsher economic sanctions. Hard to say where this geopolitical mess ends up and the effect on oil prices...but yes, I am cautious.

[Beagle]

Another "satisfied" customer :eek2: https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/mother-lashes-out-at-jetstar-over-disgusting-flight-experience/ar-AAI950c?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

More satisfied customers

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/116286818/air-new-zealands-koru-club-its-time-to-kick-the-freeloaders-out

Good Thursday afternoon entertainment

[Beagle]

236 comments in the comments section, its seems every man and his freeloading dog has an opinion on that one.
My thoughts, at least they're expanding it whereas JetStar's regional travellers have to endure air hostesses that are even more grumpier than usual.

[winner69]

236 comments in the comments section, its seems every man and his freeloading dog has an opinion on that one.
My thoughts, at least they're expanding it whereas JetStar's regional travellers have to endure air hostesses that are even more grumpier than usual.

Just as well the likes of Raz get into that room for special people and doesnt have to mix with the freeloaders

Nobody forces anybody to go into the Koru Lounge

[winner69]

Cool chart

[Beagle]

Cool chart

Makes it look like Auckland is the centre of the universe lol

[winner69]

Makes it look like Auckland is the centre of the universe lol

And AIR want to keep it that way eh

Like flying QAN passengers from Auckland to regional NZ

[YoungBuck]

I still haven’t received my dividend. Who do I need to contact to remedy this?

[Beagle]

Contact the share registry in the first instance.

[Raz]

Just as well the likes of Raz get into that room for special people and doesnt have to mix with the freeloaders

Nobody forces anybody to go into the Koru Lounge

No, not part of the VP10 program.

The Emirates lounge at Auckland airport is a dream, quiet, comfortable and the food is is delicious. There is also a certain "other" credit card that includes international lounge access across the world..so there are alternatives.

[Raz]

No, not part of the VP10 program.

The Emirates lounge at Auckland airport is a dream, quiet, comfortable and the food is is delicious. There is also a certain "other" credit card that includes international lounge access across the world..so there are alternatives.

New CEO, experience also in China which will be useful, also a smart operator.

[blackcap]

I wonder if he will bring the Walmart motto to AIR:

Greg took up his current role in 2014 and led a transformation of the
business based around Walmart's principles of Every Day Low Costs and Every
Day Low Price.

[Sideshow Bob]

On the face of it, I think it looks like a great hire - albeit new to the industry.

[allfromacell]

He's earning $11.5M at Walmart, I wonder what Air NZ had to cough up to get him.

[iceman]

Saw a long TV interview with him some time ago about his time at Walmart. Came across as a smart down to earth guy who obviously was held in high regard by his staff. His results at Walmart speak for themselves. Looks like a great hire for AIR even though he obviously lacks industry experience. But that is nothing new in this industry. I wish him well

[IAK]

Good rugby league ma. His son is former kiwi Kieran Foran.

[Benny1]

Good rugby league ma. His son is former kiwi Kieran Foran.

Well if he's a league man I'm liking the sound of him already!!

[Beagle]

Looks like a good hire. I have felt for quite some time that AIR need to focus on tighter cost control and given his background I think he'll be the man for the job.

[winner69]

Real coup Air New Zealand getting Foran - a real ‘rock star’ CEO

Rock star CEOs generally do better than those with a ‘halo’

[BlackPeter]

...

Rock star CEOs generally do better than those with a ‘halo’

Just curious - given you state this as a fact, could you point us to some relevant research?

Personally I prefer competence, good work ethics and long term vision over rocking stars ...

[winner69]

Just curious - given you state this as a fact, could you point us to some relevant research?

Personally I prefer competence, good work ethics and long term vision over rocking stars ...

Suppose all rather subjective Peter and preference is what you’re entitled too,

Luxon was a good example of the ‘halo effect’ and some would say he was lucky with the timing if his appointment

He left AIR with profits about the same as his first full year of influence and 40% lower than they were three years ago. Suppose that’s what ‘competence, good work ethics and long term vision’ gives you ......(in a cyclical industry maybe?)

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/air-nz-union-members-wary-of-new-ceo/ar-AAIDWTK?ocid=spartandhp

[Blue Skies]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/air-nz-union-members-wary-of-new-ceo/ar-AAIDWTK?ocid=spartandhp

Market seems pretty happy with his appointment ( know I am)

[winner69]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/air-nz-union-members-wary-of-new-ceo/ar-AAIDWTK?ocid=spartandhp

Rock star CEO will charm the pants of the union

[winner69]

Grumpy people on Twitter

Keep it up AIR ...good for shareholders

Piss take @FlyAirNZ charging me $80 for a bag I decide last minute... just because I brought a ticket with no bag and I didn’t do it online you charge me $80 a wrought is what it is 😡 grrr

And

Got another $80 off me for a ticket change I'd only purchased 30 mins before so I urgently try and get home last Thu. It's crazy you can no longer buy a ticket at the airport if there are seats available after check-in is closed from people who didn't show.

And

I once booked a bag online using my phone at the airport. The staff person told me she'd have to charge much more if I did it at the counter. Lucky I had time to do that but the system is gamed against goodwill.

[Beagle]

Market seems pretty happy with his appointment ( know I am)

Yes I am happy too but at $2.90 I am not a buyer and content to simply hold my moderate stake.
Forward PE for AIR is actually higher than QAN ! (and many American airlines I follow).

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/lifestyle/travel/air-nz-announce-new-stretch-economy-seats/ar-AAIPteJ?ocid=spartandhp
New economy stretch seats coming. 35 inch pitch will be nice but no word on the seat width which will be interesting.

[Jay]

How many various forms of seating are they intending to have, this will make 4 for some aircraft - all at different price points and as you say beagle, no word on width
Mind you flying recently to and from USA, could have done with a bit extra room - though spend the extra money on experiences with the family than pay extra for premium economy/business when cannot afford both

[Benny1]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/lifestyle/travel/air-nz-announce-new-stretch-economy-seats/ar-AAIPteJ?ocid=spartandhp
New economy stretch seats coming. 35 inch pitch will be nice but no word on the seat width which will be interesting.

As far as I know they are the same seats just re-pitched a bit... So no change in width..
Will probably lead to the seats down the back re-pitched tighter than what they are now...

[Beagle]

As far as I know they are the same seats just re-pitched a bit... So no change in width..
Will probably lead to the seats down the back re-pitched tighter than what they are now...
AKA JetStar class :eek2:

[winner69]

AKA JetStar class :eek2:

What happens when accountants run airlines

You’ll just have to save up a bit more when you go to Zurich

[Beagle]

What happens when accountants run airlines

You’ll just have to save up a bit more when you go to Zurich

Mrs Beagle not keen on travelling that far...not getting much positive feedback on that idea...

[traineeinvestor]

Mrs Beagle not keen on travelling that far...not getting much positive feedback on that idea...

Come to Hong Kong instead then - half the distance and some really good deals on 5 star hotels at the moment. :scared:

[pierre]

Come to Hong Kong instead then - half the distance and some really good deals on 5 star hotels at the moment. :scared:

Very true. I booked a flash hotel In Honkers about 6 months ago for the night before our cruise that commenced on October 4.
Checked online a week before we were due to arrive and could get the same room about NZD200 cheaper! I emailed the hotel and they agreed to provide our room at the new rate They also gave us very early check-in at no extra charge after we arrived around 7:30am off our overnight AIR flight. Didn't see any sign of protestors aanywhere.

[Sideshow Bob]

Very true. I booked a flash hotel In Honkers about 6 months ago for the night before our cruise that commenced on October 4.
Checked online a week before we were due to arrive and could get the same room about NZD200 cheaper! I emailed the hotel and they agreed to provide our room at the new rate They also gave us very early check-in at no extra charge after we arrived around 7:30am off our overnight AIR flight. Didn't see any sign of protestors aanywhere.

Came through there last month, and stayed at our usual digs in Mong Kok. Half the usual price, and at 8am, reception was completely empty. No issues while there, odd little disturbance or shouting and bit of graffiti.

Chinese visitors is where they are missing out, both in terms of stayers, but also "ants" coming over the border for shopping. Spoke to some Chinese this week and they said Hong Kong was "extremely dangerous".

[Beagle]

Come to Hong Kong instead then - half the distance and some really good deals on 5 star hotels at the moment. :scared:

Can I please have a complimentary Kevlar flak jacket to go with that :eek2:

[Onion]

Can I please have a complimentary Kevlar flak jacket to go with that :eek2:

A flouro vest and a face mask will set you apart as a tourist. You'll be sweet!

[traineeinvestor]

Can I please have a complimentary Kevlar flak jacket to go with that :eek2:



Flak jackets are out of stock but there's plenty of beer and discounts on the shopping.

[Beagle]

A flouro vest and a face mask will set you apart as a tourist. You'll be sweet!

LOL where do I sign...

[iceman]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/rwc-2019-japan/116676986/air-new-zealand-shows-ireland-fans-the-door-ahead-of-rugby-world-cup-quarterfinal

[winner69]

Pilot Kirk all excited over AIRs new plane he’s bringing home soon.

@philipkirk6
Our lovely new 787. Looking forward to our flight tomorrow morning. A little biased I know, however I love to see our @FlyAirNZ livery on the flight line at Boeing. Always a pleasure being here to work through the acceptance and delivery process.
Can’t wait to bring it home!

[Beagle]

Hope they check the engines properly and check to ensure they have the latest iteration of parts that RR thinks might be up to the task and at least last a bit longer than previous ones :eek2:

[winner69]

Wonder whether AIR will disclose what terms the new CEO is on when starts next year

Just thought about it as another few million shares just issued for AIR force execs to feed upon over the next few years.

[winner69]

New CEO might think he’s better than Alan Joyce - the $24m man

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/is-alan-joyce-worth-24-million-a-year-his-record-suggests-not-20191016-p5319d.html

[Beagle]

I really hope they don't pay him any more than Chris Luxon. This company badly needs a dose of reality when it comes to management and staff remuneration.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/343016/310242.pdf
Good load factor of nearly 85%, slightly disappointing RASK. Disc: Hold modest position for dividend yield.

[Sideshow Bob]

New CEO might think he’s better than Alan Joyce - the $24m man

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/is-alan-joyce-worth-24-million-a-year-his-record-suggests-not-20191016-p5319d.html

Interesting read. One perspective as written by a union official, but if nothing else, that age of aircraft is a major.

Old news, but sometime soon should be making a decision to replace about 1/3 their fleet, but delivery is still some years away. Joyce probably gone by the time they have to write too many cheques.

https://airlinerwatch.com/qantas-prepares-to-place-mega-orders-from-boeing-and-airbus/

[Beagle]

Can't see them going for the 737 MAX lol

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/343016/310242.pdf
Good load factor of nearly 85%, slightly disappointing RASK. Disc: Hold modest position for dividend yield.

RASK down 1% not that bad when ASK up nearly 5%

The R which really matter up heaps

[iceman]

Big announcement from AIR today, canceling its LAX-LHR route and introducing Auckland-New York direct. I am not surprised as AIR has not been competitive in prices across the Atlantic for several years. Great news to get a direct flight to NYC https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12278865

[Jay]

Of the half dozen times I've been direct into LA and out again - last time a couple of weeks ago (twice continued onto London direct and returned the same way) never had a problem with LA airport, no more than any other airport - must have been lucky! Even on domestic US flights have to remove your shoes etc - except if you are under 17 I think it was :confused:
It is a bit quicker, same plane, no long stop overs etc, but do get a break getting off and on again - can be a pain, however obviously not everyone thinks the same.
In saying all that, I would now not fly any of those long flights all in one go unless I really had to - 12-13 hrs max with a stopover for a day or two, won't have any choice if going to London/Europe from this time next year in any event, so either fly to LA then pick up another flight, of fly east with a stop over in Singapore or the like

[Sideshow Bob]

Of the half dozen times I've been direct into LA and out again - last time a couple of weeks ago (twice continued onto London direct and returned the same way) never had a problem with LA airport, no more than any other airport - must have been lucky! Even on domestic US flights have to remove your shoes etc - except if you are under 17 I think it was :confused:
It is a bit quicker, same plane, no long stop overs etc, but do get a break getting off and on again - can be a pain, however obviously not everyone thinks the same.
In saying all that, I would now not fly any of those long flights all in one go unless I really had to - 12-13 hrs max with a stopover for a day or two, won't have any choice if going to London/Europe from this time next year in any event, so either fly to LA then pick up another flight, of fly east with a stop over in Singapore or the like

Would say that you've been lucky Jay! I've lost my bag through LAX when transiting, another time been very very very close to missing that London flight transiting through LAX and last time we went through there in May, took my wife and daughter over 3 hours to clear customs. Many people just try to avoid LAX if they can.

I think habits and demand has likely changed. Many people instead of flying to London want to fly into continental European cities, and also have a range of other stopover cities/experiences. AIR just can't match the network of flights and destinations provided for by Singapore or Emirates etc.

[stoploss]

Wonder how much they have sold the LHR 1 landing spot for or if they have leased it out ? Think these prime spots worth something like 20 mio quid.

[causecelebre]

More significantly this is AKL-LHR after over 30 years can no longer fly to the mother country on AIR metal. There goes 120 crew and 25 sales jobs out of London.

[winner69]

More significantly this is AKL-LHR after over 30 years can no longer fly to the mother country on AIR metal. There goes 120 crew and 25 sales jobs out of London.

If it was losing money why persevere for the sake of the pride of flying a big bird into Heathrow. The

[Beagle]

More significantly this is AKL-LHR after over 30 years can no longer fly to the mother country on AIR metal. There goes 120 crew and 25 sales jobs out of London.

New service flying direct Auckland to New York commences at the same time, (October 2020), 3 times a week. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c3ec4e68/air-nz-ends-la-london-service-155-jobs-at-risk.html

[causecelebre]

If it was losing money why persevere for the sake of the pride of flying a big bird into Heathrow. The

Exactly, AIR are in the business of making money not providing sentimental tethers to the old world. Their focus is to facilitate access to high value customers both to the airline and NZ. American's provide far more value per seat than Kiwis doing their OE. In addition, there is far more value for them in and out of NZ hubs

[Sideshow Bob]

Exactly, AIR are in the business of making money not providing sentimental tethers to the old world. Their focus is to facilitate access to high value customers both to the airline and NZ. American's provide far more value per seat than Kiwis doing their OE. In addition, there is far more value for them in and out of NZ hubs

UK is rapidly becoming less important as a trading partner, and potentially less so after Brexit. Maybe seeing the writing on the wall - and less travelers at the sharp end

[Beagle]

Exactly, AIR are in the business of making money not providing sentimental tethers to the old world. Their focus is to facilitate access to high value customers both to the airline and NZ. American's provide far more value per seat than Kiwis doing their OE. In addition, there is far more value for them in and out of NZ hubs

Agreed. Concentrating on pacific rim destinations makes good common sense.

[Benny1]

Wasn't the whole point and justification for flying to Houston about opening up the East coast it the states using Houston as a hub?
That seems to have been forgotten about now... Hope this new flight actually adds value and doesn't just cannibalise existing routes.
I imagine there will be no cargo revenue also.. As these 787's will be payload restricted.

[winner69]

Wasn't the whole point and justification for flying to Houston about opening up the East coast it the states using Houston as a hub?
That seems to have been forgotten about now... Hope this new flight actually adds value and doesn't just cannibalise existing routes.
I imagine there will be no cargo revenue also.. As these 787's will be payload restricted.

...buts it cool flying to the Big Apple

Symbolic

[nizzy]

Would say that you've been lucky Jay! I've lost my bag through LAX when transiting, another time been very very very close to missing that London flight transiting through LAX and last time we went through there in May, took my wife and daughter over 3 hours to clear customs. Many people just try to avoid LAX if they can.

I think habits and demand has likely changed. Many people instead of flying to London want to fly into continental European cities, and also have a range of other stopover cities/experiences. AIR just can't match the network of flights and destinations provided for by Singapore or Emirates etc.

Agree. Singapore, Emirates & Qatar are top airlines flying out of Auck or Chc. Its so painless transiting in Sing, Dubai or Doha & connections to dozens of European & African destinations.
LAX just doesn't compare, US transit is primal in contrast.

[Benny1]

...buts it cool flying to the Big Apple

Symbolic
I thought London was Symbolic too???
Oh well...

[winner69]

I thought London was Symbolic too???
Oh well...

Yeah mate ...WAS symbolic

The Big Apple is more cool these days ...and closer

[Ottiehund]

As a passenger there is still nothing quite like the feeling of stepping on board and NZ aircraft at Heathrow to come home ... I will miss that despite maybe trading it for cheaper fares and more routing options perhaps. As an investor, I like my juicy NZ dividends, so if NY is where it is at and the route is more profitable than London then lets go there.

[Beagle]

End of an era for sure but no room for sentiment in business. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/kiwi-traveller/116800281/air-new-zealand-the-first-flights-to-london
First class cost in 2019 dollars about $57,000 when it started.
I've seen economy class on a decent airline like Emirates for $1,699 return recently. Times have changed !

[winner69]

End of an era for sure but no room for sentiment in business. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/kiwi-traveller/116800281/air-new-zealand-the-first-flights-to-london
First class cost in 2019 dollars about $57,000 when it started.
I've seen economy class on a decent airline like Emirates for $1,699 return recently. Times have changed !

That $57,000 was $16,000 in money of the day

About $7000/$8000 same trip today

Shows you why so many fly these days and tourism is booming

Mind you only about $1,000 (often less) if you want to rough it

[jonu]

As I recall, my return flight to London in 1990 was $2400. From memory I flew on the last day of the shoulder season- end of May.

[Jay]

And I paid about $2400 for a flight in August 2000
Seems like the price has been about thew same for yonks

[Beagle]

That $57,000 was $16,000 in money of the day

About $7000/$8000 same trip today

Shows you why so many fly these days and tourism is booming

Mind you only about $1,000 (often less) if you want to rough it
Not even if they paid me $1,000. You make a good point. In today's dollars on a quality airline you can get business class return for about $7-8K so in inflation adjusted terms people paying $57,000 for the same thing in the 1980's $114,000 for a couple return...basically only the rich could afford to travel business or first class back then.

[winner69]

Airline emissions - NZ as a country one of the worst

When you see the likes of Finland and Iceland being worse than us it seems the impacts of tourism are immense.

NZers do a relativity fair bit of domestic air travel as well

But as long as AIR keep churning out big divies this just interesting

https://theicct.org/blog/staff/not-every-tonne-of-aviation-CO2

[blackcap]

And I paid about $2400 for a flight in August 2000
Seems like the price has been about thew same for yonks

My grandmother paid $2500 for a return flight Europe in 1984. So the price has been the same for ever.

Only thing was in 1984 a litre of milk cost 39 cents, my dad was bringing home about $140pw in pay and so yes air travel has become very very cheap.

Back in the 80's economy passengers were paying more to fly than our first class flight fares today.

Travel was for the wealthy only, or you needed to save a long time to go on flights.

For those complaining about "cattle class" today, well just fork out the extra $ for business class and you are still better off than your peers from 30 years ago.

[biker]

Wonder how much they have sold the LHR 1 landing spot for or if they have leased it out ? Think these prime spots worth something like 20 mio quid.

They are going to announce that in the next few days apparently. Hopefully we will also hear what they’re doing with the other slot which they leased to Cathay.

[Beagle]

My grandmother paid $2500 for a return flight Europe in 1984. So the price has been the same for ever.

Only thing was in 1984 a litre of milk cost 39 cents, my dad was bringing home about $140pw in pay and so yes air travel has become very very cheap.

Back in the 80's economy passengers were paying more to fly than our first class flight fares today.

Travel was for the wealthy only, or you needed to save a long time to go on flights.

For those complaining about "cattle class" today, well just fork out the extra $ for business class and you are still better off than your peers from 30 years ago.

Well said and hits the nail directly on the head.

[Benny1]

They are going to announce that in the next few days apparently. Hopefully we will also hear what they’re doing with the other slot which they leased to Cathay.
If I recall that correctly it was sold to Cathay a number of years ago.
From my understanding these rights maybe leased to another airline for a period of time however if they are not used by the owner airline in this case AIR within a certain timeframe they most be sold.

[Raz]

If I recall that correctly it was sold to Cathay a number of years ago.
From my understanding these rights maybe leased to another airline for a period of time however if they are not used by the owner airline in this case AIR within a certain timeframe they most be sold.

The only thing amazing about the cut re the flight London to LAX has how long it has taken... Hotels at last when the cycle is heading the wrong way..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116865763/a-2-billion-hotel-construction-boom-is-in-full-swing

The Sky fire will be a big hit also for Auckland mid-term conference market and as everyone knows Queenstown had a horrible winter trade...tourism is in correction mode...

And this PR ....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/kiwi-traveller/116861514/hate-lax-why-new-yorks-newark-liberty-international-airport-is-a-relative-breeze

My worst experience of delays in my entire life all have been at Newark. Not as large yet something go wrong you will sit in the plane waiting to take off for hours...

[Jay]

I have heard stories from someone who is based in New Jersey and uses Newark all the time -flying domestically - delays all the time - I suppose as you say Raz , something goes wrong, then you lose you "spot" and have to wait who knows how long - may be a fact of life with it being one of the busiest airports??

[Benny1]

Yep. Probably is.. Also delays in winter due to weather can be huge..
I'd expect a few disrupts with flights diverted and with only 3 flights a week it will be a massive headache trying to accommodate disrupted passengers on other flights.
I'd expect recovery of those pax would be via a domestic flight to Houston or Lax or SFO ...hey that's what they do now!