AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/finance/airbus-to-showcase-its-latest-aircraft-in-nz-skies/ar-AAJjwlr?ocid=spartandhp
New toy for the team to have a look at.

AIR being a good corporates citizen and putting on more capacity rather than having people fill the existing ones right up at premium pricing. Very good of them considering they've probably made stuff all on those routes in recent years. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116888887/new-zealand-adds-regional-flights-following-jetstars-exit

[value_investor]

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2019-airnz-gets-set-for-economy-stretch


I like this idea a lot and I think it will prove to be quite popular among economy customers. Having traveled the long haul to London recently flying Emirates which was probably as pleasant as economy can get, I would have still paid a little extra to get a few more amenities on my flight, such as more legroom and better food options. It'll be interesting the pricing options on this but I see the demand for it at a competitive price.

[mondograss]

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2019-airnz-gets-set-for-economy-stretch


I like this idea a lot and I think it will prove to be quite popular among economy customers. Having traveled the long haul to London recently flying Emirates which was probably as pleasant as economy can get, I would have still paid a little extra to get a few more amenities on my flight, such as more legroom and better food options. It'll be interesting the pricing options on this but I see the demand for it at a competitive price.

Hawaiian Airlines have been doing this for a while. They call it “Extra Comfort” and for a 9 hour overnight flight to Honolulu I can attest that it is well worth it and the main reason I fly with them rather than Air NZ.

[winner69]

AIR need to drop this silly ‘Air All Blacks’ thing as soon as possible

Some punters apparently bit pissed with the safety video today.

[Beagle]

Agreed. They got totally and utterly dominated last night and were very fortunate the score line wasn't much more embarrassing. Get back to pushing clean green New Zealand ASAP. How much does it cost to repaint those black dreamliners ?

[winner69]

Agreed. They got totally and utterly dominated last night and were very fortunate the score line wasn't much more embarrassing. Get back to pushing clean green New Zealand ASAP. How much does it cost to repaint those black dreamliners ?

@stevebiddle
The All Blacks are broken.. Just like the black "Air All Blacks" 787 that's been parked up broken in Auckland since April after a catering truck hit it.

[Beagle]

Yeah I've seen that one there outside the maintenance hanger...been there for what seems like forever. Wonder why Benny1 and his mates can't fix it ? Carbon fiber structure completely shikkered ?
Good that's its a black one though, less embarrassment, out of sight and out of mind....let's be honest, the AB's were made to look like a second rate school-boy team...
Aaron Smith is right to say its highly embarrassing https://www.msn.com/en-nz/sport/rugby-union/all-blacks-dressing-room-like-a-funeral/ar-AAJoiXX?ocid=spartandhp
Hope that dreamliner is repainted before being put back in service.

[Benny1]

Yeah I've seen that one there outside the maintenance hanger...been there for what seems like forever. Wonder why Benny1 and his mates can't fix it ? Carbon fiber structure completely shikkered ?
Good that's its a black one though, less embarrassment, out of sight and out of mind....let's be honest, the AB's were made to look like a second rate school-boy team...
Aaron Smith is right to say its highly embarrassing https://www.msn.com/en-nz/sport/rugby-union/all-blacks-dressing-room-like-a-funeral/ar-AAJoiXX?ocid=spartandhp
Hope that dreamliner is repainted before being put back in service.
That repair was as completed months ago... It's still missing a couple of those big round things that hang under the wings.. And few other bits and pieces that have been robbed to keep the rest of the fleet flying.

[Benny1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280239

Things heating up in the USA market from next year.
American flying AKL-LAX, AKL-DFW and CHC-LAX over next summer.

[Blue Skies]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280239

Things heating up in the USA market from next year.
American flying AKL-LAX, AKL-DFW and CHC-LAX over next summer.

Big boost for inbound tourism from the US.

[winner69]

That repair was as completed months ago... It's still missing a couple of those big round things that hang under the wings.. And few other bits and pieces that have been robbed to keep the rest of the fleet flying.

Apparently the big round things under the wing have been reattached ...and will be back in service soon.

[Benny1]

Apparently the big round things under the wing have been reattached ...and will be back in service soon.
No I can confirm they haven't... Second aircraft laid up now too with one engine needed for that one. ... Think more engines are due back soon.

[Beagle]

No I can confirm they haven't... Second aircraft laid up now too with one engine needed for that one. ... Think more engines are due back soon.

Nightmareliner

[BlackPeter]

No I can confirm they haven't... Second aircraft laid up now too with one engine needed for that one. ... Think more engines are due back soon.

Just out of curiosity - how do they transport these engines? I suppose they are too big for air cargo - aren't they?

[Benny1]

Just out of curiosity - how do they transport these engines? I suppose they are too big for air cargo - aren't they?
Think they go to Singapore on the 747 freighters that fly in to AKL once or twice a week..

[Blue Skies]

Recently returned from Europe trip flying economy sectors on Qatar B 777-200LR, Singapore Airlines A380-800 and AIR B787-9 Dreamliner, and AIR Dreamliner noticeably newest, freshest & most comfortable.
AIR also had friendliest on board service & considerably best entertainment system & content. The others good but not as good.
That lower altitude cabin pressure & little extra humidity plus being quieter is a big help on those long haul flights. The larger cabin windows are great too.
Once you get used to those things, its hard to go back.
Flown AIR Dreamliners before but not back to back comparisons like this where differences were so noticeable.
Just my h' opinion but v pleased as a shareholder.

[Beagle]

Recently returned from Europe trip flying economy sectors on Qatar B 777-200LR, Singapore Airlines A380-800 and AIR B787-9 Dreamliner, and AIR Dreamliner noticeably newest, freshest & most comfortable.
AIR also had friendliest on board service & considerably best entertainment system & content. The others good but not as good.
That lower altitude cabin pressure & little extra humidity plus being quieter is a big help on those long haul flights. The larger cabin windows are great too.
Once you get used to those things, its hard to go back.
Flown AIR Dreamliners before but not back to back comparisons like this where differences were so noticeable.
Just my h' opinion but v pleased as a shareholder.

Good feedback, appreciated :)

[Jaa]

Recently returned from Europe trip flying economy sectors on Qatar B 777-200LR, Singapore Airlines A380-800 and AIR B787-9 Dreamliner, and AIR Dreamliner noticeably newest, freshest & most comfortable.
AIR also had friendliest on board service & considerably best entertainment system & content. The others good but not as good.
That lower altitude cabin pressure & little extra humidity plus being quieter is a big help on those long haul flights. The larger cabin windows are great too.
Once you get used to those things, its hard to go back.
Flown AIR Dreamliners before but not back to back comparisons like this where differences were so noticeable.
Just my h' opinion but v pleased as a shareholder.

Also recently flew Qatar's 787 and A350, found the 787 cramped compared to their A350s which are wider. Their entertainment system was bland too, without anything vaguely controversial on it as for that matter was Doha as a stopover. Their flights are also longer than necessary due to the blockade. Much prefer the entertainment, food and service on Air NZ's 787s which I flew recently as well. Qatar often considered the world's best airline so Air NZ still up to or better than the best.

American Airlines expanding their presence between the US-NZ is a bit negative for Air NZ as these are profitable routes. They will probably increase demand though as Americans are always obsessed by their miles and thus pretty brand loyal. Seems even James Comey wants to come to NZ!

[Raz]

Also recently flew Qatar's 787 and A350, found the 787 cramped compared to their A350s which are wider. Their entertainment system was bland too, without anything vaguely controversial on it as for that matter was Doha as a stopover. Their flights are also longer than necessary due to the blockade. Much prefer the entertainment, food and service on Air NZ's 787s which I flew recently as well. Qatar often considered the world's best airline so Air NZ still up to or better than the best.

American Airlines expanding their presence between the US-NZ is a bit negative for Air NZ as these are profitable routes. They will probably increase demand though as Americans are always obsessed by their miles and thus pretty brand loyal. Seems even James Comey wants to come to NZ!

Yes I think on balance it will increase the market, especially in the South Island which AIR was not going to service regardless. Good news indeed!

Concerning flights and aircraft, it really come down to the configuration by the airline rather than the aircraft. I much prefer Singapore airline when flying their old 777s before they moved to the A350 out of NZ, although a more modern aircraft, the seat configuration means business class is the only viable option now rather than economy for any real form of comfort through to Singapore.

[IAK]

Should keep the wolf from the door for a few years. Former Air NZ boss Christopher Luxon issued rights worth nearly $2m.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280705

[Sideshow Bob]

Should keep the wolf from the door for a few years. Former Air NZ boss Christopher Luxon issued rights worth nearly $2m.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12280705

Might need it. Taking a decent paycut to go into politics (if successful)

[Blue Skies]

"Concerning flights and aircraft, it really come down to the configuration by the airline rather than the aircraft".


Raz just in case you're not aware, the Dreamliner is a big advance, carbon composite plane (rather than traditional aluminium) meaning its lighter & stronger kg for kg.
It allows the cabin pressure to be kept at around 6000 ft altitude, about 2000 ft lower than on other planes, and the humidity level is kept at a more comfortable level for pax (because water is extra weight on a plane & corrodes aluminium) so much reduces passenger fatigue, dry eyes & nose, headaches etc. Also the extra strong carbon composite allows the cabin windows to be about 30% larger so much nicer looking out at the view.
There certainly is quite a difference in terms of passenger comfort matching like for like configuration.
Lighter weight also better economics for the airline.

[winner69]

"Concerning flights and aircraft, it really come down to the configuration by the airline rather than the aircraft".


Raz just in case you're not aware, the Dreamliner is a big advance, carbon composite plane (rather than traditional aluminium) meaning its lighter & stronger kg for kg.
It allows the cabin pressure to be kept at around 6000 ft altitude, about 2000 ft lower than on other planes, and the humidity level is kept at a more comfortable level for pax (because water is extra weight on a plane & corrodes aluminium) so much reduces passenger fatigue, dry eyes & nose, headaches etc. Also the extra strong carbon composite allows the cabin windows to be about 30% larger so much nicer looking out at the view.
There certainly is quite a difference in terms of passenger comfort matching like for like configuration.
Lighter weight also better economics for the airline.

The way the crew use the master control on those Dreamliner windows piss me off .....must keep the light out of the cabin ....couldn’t see the Gobi Desert when I wanted to and heck the most beautiful things you can look at is a sunrise / sunset

Suppose easier for crews these days than them getting pissed off when the likes of me upped the blinds to see sunrises and things.

And that humidity thing is a con I reckon.

[blackcap]

Totally agree with you there winner. I love looking out of the windows. If and when the crew do that it is annoying. If the sun is coming up, well its wake up time as far as I am concerned. As for the humidity, I notice no difference between the dreamliners and the A380's or even the Boeing 747's from distant memory. But I do drink plenty and make sure I stay hydrated so that might help.

[Poet]

"Concerning flights and aircraft, it really come down to the configuration by the airline rather than the aircraft".


Raz just in case you're not aware, the Dreamliner is a big advance, carbon composite plane (rather than traditional aluminium) meaning its lighter & stronger kg for kg.
It allows the cabin pressure to be kept at around 6000 ft altitude, about 2000 ft lower than on other planes, and the humidity level is kept at a more comfortable level for pax (because water is extra weight on a plane & corrodes aluminium) so much reduces passenger fatigue, dry eyes & nose, headaches etc. Also the extra strong carbon composite allows the cabin windows to be about 30% larger so much nicer looking out at the view.
There certainly is quite a difference in terms of passenger comfort matching like for like configuration.
Lighter weight also better economics for the airline.

'because water is extra weight on a plane' Just a small point, but I'm not sure this is correct. Humid air is lighter than dry air (which is why the clouds are in the sky and not on the ground:))

[Beagle]

Totally agree with you there winner. I love looking out of the windows. If and when the crew do that it is annoying. If the sun is coming up, well its wake up time as far as I am concerned. As for the humidity, I notice no difference between the dreamliners and the A380's or even the Boeing 747's from distant memory. But I do drink plenty and make sure I stay hydrated so that might help.

A380's carbon composite too and effective altitude is just 5,000 ft so they're even kinder on the body and speaking of kinder, back in the day the 747 seats even in economy had decent width and pitch and room to breathe...before they started squeezing everyone in like sardines so that's probably why you felt comfortable on them.
I reckon so called premium economy these days is a rort. Less room than standard economy 10 years ago.

[dobby41]

I reckon so called premium economy these days is a rort. Less room than standard economy 10 years ago.

But certainly better than standard economy these days.
10 years ago it cost more (relative) to fly so if you pay the same relative money you can get back to 'the good old days'.

What's getting my goat up is trying to get a flight back from Vancouver in July next year. AIR was C$1300 (NZ$1550) whereas as part of a return flight it would be NZ$950 - that's a rort.
I can't work out a way around it yet.

[44wishlists]

One thing I found is my body size is growing much quicker than the airline seats... Maybe this is the true reason the seat is getting smaller on me.

[Beagle]

But certainly better than standard economy these days.
10 years ago it cost more (relative) to fly so if you pay the same relative money you can get back to 'the good old days'.

What's getting my goat up is trying to get a flight back from Vancouver in July next year. AIR was C$1300 (NZ$1550) whereas as part of a return flight it would be NZ$950 - that's a rort.
I can't work out a way around it yet.
Via Hawaii ?


One thing I found is my body size is growing much quicker than the airline seats... Maybe this is the true reason the seat is getting smaller on me.
LOL, no they're shrinking both the pitch and seat width. Seat width a key bug bear of mine as it used to be 18.5 inches and now about 17. Makes a huge difference if you butt is 18.5 inches when seated lol

[dobby41]

Via Hawaii ?


I'd rather pay the right price than be robbed or go elsewhere :confused:

[Raz]

"Concerning flights and aircraft, it really come down to the configuration by the airline rather than the aircraft".


Raz just in case you're not aware, the Dreamliner is a big advance, carbon composite plane (rather than traditional aluminium) meaning its lighter & stronger kg for kg.
It allows the cabin pressure to be kept at around 6000 ft altitude, about 2000 ft lower than on other planes, and the humidity level is kept at a more comfortable level for pax (because water is extra weight on a plane & corrodes aluminium) so much reduces passenger fatigue, dry eyes & nose, headaches etc. Also the extra strong carbon composite allows the cabin windows to be about 30% larger so much nicer looking out at the view.
There certainly is quite a difference in terms of passenger comfort matching like for like configuration.
Lighter weight also better economics for the airline.

Happy you had a great experience, for me it comes down to the seat and I know the dreamliner well.

[winner69]

Sounds a bit ominous


Qantas urged to ground all of its 737s after second aircraft crack discovered

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-urged-to-ground-all-of-its-737s-after-second-aircraft-crack-discovered-20191031-p5360y.html

[Beagle]

Sounds a bit ominous


Qantas urged to ground all of its 737s after second aircraft crack discovered

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-urged-to-ground-all-of-its-737s-after-second-aircraft-crack-discovered-20191031-p5360y.html

Qantas have enjoyed a stellar reputation for safety over the years. You could argue there's nothing to worry about but a pessimist might suggest its their turn for a major accident :eek2:
Speaking of 737 drama's. I had a bit of a chuckle the other day about one of the senators statements when he was giving Boeing's CEO a roasting at the congressional hearing into the 737MAX fiasco. He said he'd rather walk than fly on one of their 737MAX's !

Thankfully AIR don't have any of those shonky planes as they have enough to deal with regarding the dodgy engines on their nightmareliners.
The other day I read that Rolls Royce engineers had a lot to do with helping BMW, (BMW own Rolls Royce vehicles division), calibrate the air suspension system on their premier model the 7 Series BMW. That's all I needed to read in terms of avoiding one of those...

[iceman]

Interesting to see Jetstar on this list of 10 safest airlines in the World. Dreamliner problems no doubt weighing on AIR http://www.jacdec.de/airline-safety-ranking-2018/

[Blue Skies]

Interesting to see Jetstar on this list of 10 safest airlines in the World. Dreamliner problems no doubt weighing on AIR http://www.jacdec.de/airline-safety-ranking-2018/


When you think about it, in the modern era these kinds of airline safety rankings are a complete waste of time, pandering only to the obsessions of nervous flyers.
Comparing a handful of incidents spread over millions of flights and millions & millions of passenger miles flown, and reducing them to fractions of fractions of fractions of a percentage to come up with a safety ranking is rather meaningless.
(Still, I always feel most relaxed when flying on AIR :) )

[winner69]

The Singapore A350-900 landed easy easy at Wellington today

Wellington/Singapore and onwards good value


https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/117093215/wellington-welcomes-arrival-of-modern-a350-aircraft-from-melbourne

[Beagle]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-01/qantas-says-three-boeing-737-found-with-cracks/11661320?section=business&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+2+ November+2019

Thankfully AIR don't have any of these 737's with their dodgy pickle forks.

[Benny1]

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-01/qantas-says-three-boeing-737-found-with-cracks/11661320?section=business&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+2+ November+2019[/url
Thankfully AIR don't have any of these 737's with their dodgy pickle forks.
No thankfully they don't... But they don't mind code sharing and putting their passengers on them!

[Beagle]

No thankfully they don't... But they don't mind code sharing and putting their passengers on them!

No worries whatsoever because Boeing says 737's with stress cracks in their pickle forks are good for at least another 1000 cycles and we know we can complelty trust everything Boeing tells us :ohmy:

[Beagle]

Winner sent me this, absolutely fascinating piece of history if you're into bird watching, so I thought I would share it on here. Enjoy :)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTN-x21W2kQ Many thanks for sharing this Winner.

[winner69]

Winner sent me this, absolutely fascinating piece of history if you're into bird watching, so I thought I would share it on here. Enjoy :)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTN-x21W2kQ Many thanks for sharing this Winner.

The Sunderland flying boat doing a ‘touch and go’ was pretty cool

[winner69]

No worries whatsoever because Boeing says 737's with stress cracks in their pickle forks are good for at least another 1000 cycles and we know we can complelty trust everything Boeing tells us :ohmy:

Ryanair grounding some now
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/06/boeing-737-cracks-ryanair-grounds-three-planes-due-to-cracking-between-wing-and-fuselage

Spose Dreamliners will end up with structural concerns one day

[Beagle]

Funny the names of these parts isn't it. Up until a few days ago I thought pickle forks were very small forks one might use on gherkins and pickles lol.

Benny1 probably has a view on how durable the carbon fiber birds will be.

[Blue Skies]

There was an excellent radio interview a few days ago with an aircraft engineer on this issue where he explained every mechanical device, cars, bridges, aircraft, etc suffers fatigue from day 1 of use & parts will eventually need replacing. This part did exactly what it is supposed to do, ie not break, but show a tiny hairline crack indicating earliest stages of a degree of fatigue reached many many cycles before it becomes a safety issue. The problem is not one of safety but of perception to the public & that’s fundamentally why they will replace these pickle forks well before their use by date. He went on to say the issue was raised by unions not aircraft engineers & implying a political motive. I remember talking to an elderly relative who flew bombers during WW2 & his descriptions of aircraft half shot to pieces with bits missing still able to fly home.

[Beagle]

Yeah, I did a bit of flight training on little two seater Tomahawk aircraft back in the day https://www.airteamimages.com/piper-pa-38-tomahawk_G-LFSM_-private_221239.html
and when they had stress cracks in the tail rotor they would just drill a small hole through the aluminium to stop the stress crack spreading.
Used to do the books of a couple of helicopter operators and I'll never forget the time when they sold one of their AS350B squirrel's. The sale and purchase documentation and engineers reports contained a page and a half of items that weren't perfect but the Helicopter was still considered "airworthy" I was told this is not abnormal.

[winner69]

Social media going on about now that Luxon has gone AIR have reinstated their pink flight to the Sydney Mardi Gras

Good for shareholders - servicing a cause and a couple of extra full flights

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Social media going on about now that Luxon has gone AIR have reinstated their pink flight to the Sydney Mardi Gras

Good for shareholders - servicing a cause and a couple of extra full flights

Why was Luxon blocking it?

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Why was Luxon blocking it?

Okay I've looked in to this... he's an evangelical Christian and is now the National candidate for Botany in Auckland... He wouldn't have bought his religious views to influence his role as a company executive would he...? (/s)

[blackcap]

Okay I've looked in to this... he's an evangelical Christian and is now the National candidate for Botany in Auckland... He wouldn't have bought his religious views to influence his role as a company executive would he...? (/s)

Why not? Obviously that Qantas CEO does the same with his religious views so I think there can be no escaping that CEO's bring whatever views they have and that influences their role as company exec.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Why not? Obviously that Qantas CEO does the same with his religious views so I think there can be no escaping that CEO's bring whatever views they have and that influences their role as company exec.

Qantas CEO's "religious" views?

[iceman]

Social media going on about now that Luxon has gone AIR have reinstated their pink flight to the Sydney Mardi Gras

Good for shareholders - servicing a cause and a couple of extra full flights

I dont think anybody even realised Chris was a conservative christian bloke until he decided to enter politics.

[Beagle]

Its been well known for years. Couple of people I know who work for AIR are very sad to see him leave and think he was an excellent leader.
It'll be very good for the country when he becomes prime minister. Who doesn't want a supercharged economy :)

[winner69]

Its been well known for years. Couple of people I know who work for AIR are very sad to see him leave and think he was an excellent leader.
It'll be very good for the country when he becomes prime minister. Who doesn't want a supercharged economy :)

I don’t think a Luxon lead government would be good for NZ

But seeing he’s a has been as far as AiR is concerned we better not taint this thread with politics

[macduffy]

I don’t think a Luxon lead government would be good for NZ

But seeing he’s a has been as far as AiR is concerned we better not taint this thread with politics

Could you expand on your reason/s on the political thread, winner?

[winner69]

****e seems to happen with most airlines

https://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-a380-grounded-after-door-almost-ripped-off-at-sydney-airport-20191109-p5391o.html

[stoploss]

Air NZ be glad to be out of this mess .....
8 % .....!!!
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/virgin-australia-s-very-junky-debt-raising

[Beagle]

Air NZ be glad to be out of this mess .....
8 % .....!!!
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/virgin-australia-s-very-junky-debt-raising

Breathtaking stuff isn't it ! I can't figure who in their right mind would invest in those bonds :eek2:
Quite obviously some investors simply do not read or understand the financials or the risks involved. Pretty obvious there's a serious risk Virgin will go bankrupt in the next few years which will be good for AIR.

Speaking of good for AIR, I notice Virgin has cut back on some of its trans-tasman services and then there's this, AIR might finally start to earn a reasonable return on capital employed with regional aircraft. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12283108

[Chinesekiwi]

I have an extremely strong connection to this company and am a shareholder. My thoughts as an interested long term observer....

1. Luxon (or Low Wage Luxon as he was often cheekily referred to by Air NZers) did bring his personal values to the office. His memos to staff were frequently peppered with references to his do good religious activities of himself and his family.

2. He most certiainly stopped the PINK FLIGHTS. They were commercially profitable but he personally intervened to stop them.

3. Luxon will not make a excellent leader of the country if that is what he seeks. He presided over a business that makes the huge percentage of its money from a near monopoly domestic business. It struggles in the competitive international space (It's a bloody tough business though). Luxon has in part held the numbers up by relentless focus on costs and that's great until you understand what that means and how it was achieved:

- He oversaw the casualisation of full time jobs into split shift broken hours and reduced benefits of more vulnerable workers such as aircraft loaders and check in staff. It is common for these 'part time - full time workers to require secondary employment.
- He oversaw and encouraged the 2014 cabin crew Project Choice as it was called. This essentially when all was said and done created a huge pool flight attendants (thank you John Key and the tweeks to employment law which kindly allowed for parallel employment contracts with vastly reduced salaries and benefits for the exact same work. It was a sensational transfer of money from workers to shareholders and reduced the cost of labour by many millions annually.
Result? - sharply increased staff turnover, reduced customer satisfaction ratings, far greater absenteeism, an enlarged head office workforce to manage the same work groups now with vastly different contracts.

- He allowed his team to attempt to, once again, take the razor to the engineers who were less vulnerable and had a strong worker union and were able to fight back.

Luxon's legacy to those inside the company is one of wealth transfer from workers to shareholders. It was no suprise then that his first political speech was straight into the old National chestnut - welfare, low income and beneficiary bashing.

Will he be a great leader for NZ - He'll look great and speak well. He'll would represent NZ well on the global stage. Less visibly I have no doubt he will behave as a Nat behaves - expect less humanity, stricter provisions for the poor, mentally ill, disadvantaged etc

I realise I will be slated here but these are my observations (yes I know Christopher and have had more than one direct conversation with him - I do not dislike the guy, he's a charming speaker and has a charisma but it must be acknowledge that he was a world view that most Kiwis will not identify with)



Its been well known for years. Couple of people I know who work for AIR are very sad to see him leave and think he was an excellent leader.
It'll be very good for the country when he becomes prime minister. Who doesn't want a supercharged economy :)

[Bobdn]

"...wealth transfer from worker to shareholder" I thought Air NZ workers had great conditions and remuneration? Are they hard done by? I don't want to tread on any toes here but I think it's ok for shareholders to get a return on their investment.

[Beagle]

"...wealth transfer from worker to shareholder" I thought Air NZ workers had great conditions and remuneration? Are they hard done by? I don't want to tread on any toes here but I think it's ok for shareholders to get a return on their investment.

Thank you for sharing your perspective Chinesekiwi
Last time I looked the average worker was getting just on $120,000 which would mark it out as one of the very highest paying employers in the country. I am definitely with Bobdn on this one.

Jeff McDowell, former CFO and current CEO has talked in the last few conference calls how they've been settling deals with unions in the high 2% annual increase range, nearly 3% per annum increases. This has been going on for many many years when inflation has been averaging around 1-1.5% so in real terms the vast majority of the unionised workforce in AIR have been getting real inflation adjusted wage increases for ages. No wonder AIR is consistently voted the most favoured employer in the whole country ! This year, when oil prices were just at a reasonably moderate level, shareholders endured the lowest returns in five years. Who is transferring wealth to who ? If we are to believe Shane Jones the company should be run like a social welfare agency and if we are to listen to some employees they are the real owners of the company and deserve even more of a lion's share of the returns. (Wages and salaries bill for FY19 $1.35 Billion, net profit after tax, just a mere $270m).

The new CEO coming from a tight cost control background needs to bring some serious discipline to same within AIR as in my opinion based on the people I know who work there, there is a tremendous sense of "entitlement" amongst employees to the point where I find it quite disconcerting and not reflective of the fact that the company operates in an intensely competitive international environment competing with other airlines with a much lower cost base. For shareholders to get a decent return on equity that net profit figure needs to go up by $130m to give about 15% in this relatively high risk business so from where I sit that has to come from somewhere and on average I would say employees are overpaid by about 10% ($130m)...which is what happens over a long period of time when unions get settlements 1-2% above the rate of inflation. I hope the new CEO declares war on wage increase demands at above the rate of inflation, he needs too in my opinion to stop this employee entitlement mentality getting any worse.

I only have a modest stake because I genuinely believe this entitlement mentality at AIR is a very serious situation and seriously undermines the competitiveness of the company. My 2 cents worth.

[blackcap]

I have an extremely strong connection to this company and am a shareholder. My thoughts as an interested long term observer....

1. Luxon (or Low Wage Luxon as he was often cheekily referred to by Air NZers) did bring his personal values to the office. His memos to staff were frequently peppered with references to his do good religious activities of himself and his family.

2. He most certiainly stopped the PINK FLIGHTS. They were commercially profitable but he personally intervened to stop them.

3. Luxon will not make a excellent leader of the country if that is what he seeks. He presided over a business that makes the huge percentage of its money from a near monopoly domestic business. It struggles in the competitive international space (It's a bloody tough business though). Luxon has in part held the numbers up by relentless focus on costs and that's great until you understand what that means and how it was achieved:

- He oversaw the casualisation of full time jobs into split shift broken hours and reduced benefits of more vulnerable workers such as aircraft loaders and check in staff. It is common for these 'part time - full time workers to require secondary employment.
- He oversaw and encouraged the 2014 cabin crew Project Choice as it was called. This essentially when all was said and done created a huge pool flight attendants (thank you John Key and the tweeks to employment law which kindly allowed for parallel employment contracts with vastly reduced salaries and benefits for the exact same work. It was a sensational transfer of money from workers to shareholders and reduced the cost of labour by many millions annually.
Result? - sharply increased staff turnover, reduced customer satisfaction ratings, far greater absenteeism, an enlarged head office workforce to manage the same work groups now with vastly different contracts.

- He allowed his team to attempt to, once again, take the razor to the engineers who were less vulnerable and had a strong worker union and were able to fight back.

Luxon's legacy to those inside the company is one of wealth transfer from workers to shareholders. It was no suprise then that his first political speech was straight into the old National chestnut - welfare, low income and beneficiary bashing.

Will he be a great leader for NZ - He'll look great and speak well. He'll would represent NZ well on the global stage. Less visibly I have no doubt he will behave as a Nat behaves - expect less humanity, stricter provisions for the poor, mentally ill, disadvantaged etc

I realise I will be slated here but these are my observations (yes I know Christopher and have had more than one direct conversation with him - I do not dislike the guy, he's a charming speaker and has a charisma but it must be acknowledge that he was a world view that most Kiwis will not identify with)

Reading your comments here, I think Luxon has done a great job. Wealth transfers to shareholders are a good thing. In a free market if you can get more out of workers for less and shareholders get a better return that is a good thing. The balancing act is to pay the worker enough so that they will be happy and stay or just not enough to get rid of the disgruntled ones. Seems like Luxon fulfilled that quite nicely. As Beagle said, if the average wage is $120k the workers have absolutely nothing to complain about. Good job!

[stoploss]

Reading your comments here, I think Luxon has done a great job. Wealth transfers to shareholders are a good thing. In a free market if you can get more out of workers for less and shareholders get a better return that is a good thing. The balancing act is to pay the worker enough so that they will be happy and stay or just not enough to get rid of the disgruntled ones. Seems like Luxon fulfilled that quite nicely. As Beagle said, if the average wage is $120k the workers have absolutely nothing to complain about. Good job!

Is there a correlation between high salaries and poor performance , just thinking of Fonterra here ... what’s David Darling on ? 😂

[mondograss]

Average wage at Air NZ appears to be $75k according to this:
https://www.payscale.com/research/NZ/Employer=Air_New_Zealand_Ltd/Salary#:~:targetText=Air%20New%20Zealand%20Ltd%20p ays,to%20NZ%24124%2C904%20a%20year.

However, if you move a lot of the low paid staff such as ground crew and cabin crew to contracted\casual roles or contracting them out via third party subsidiaries, it would also have the effect of lifting your average wage.

[Beagle]

I just divided the total wage bill of $1.35b by the number of Air New Zealanders which from memory is eleven thousand or so, probably a bit more now.
Acknowledge this is probably too simplistic and full time employees have probably gone up and there will be quite a number of part timers.
AIR has been voted favorite employer of the year for some years now and I remain of the view that unionised workers have definitely been getting annual increases for many years at noticeably above the inflation rate which has the cumulative effect of making the airline much less competitive.

[winner69]

Wonder what a respectable return is for human capital

[Beagle]

A living wage ?

[mondograss]

Living wage is about $43k I think. But if you've got staff doing split shifts or casual hours then you're effectively tying up their human capital for a lot longer than you're actually paying them for.

[Benny1]

I have yet to find anyone I'm working with on an average wage of $120,000.
The reality can be quite different from a hypothetical calculated average..
I'll leave it at that.....

[Beagle]

Page 67 of the annual report is pretty illuminating.
580 people on 100 - 110K,
512 people on 110-120K
547 people on 120-130K
1639 people, nearly 16% of the entire workforce on around that sort of money.
You need to get along to work functions to socialize within the company ranks more Benny :p Plenty of people on that sort of money, very, very common and not justn within management ranks by any stretch of the imagination.
74 people in Aircrew, engineering, overseas and others (excluding management) earning $280-290K is pretty notable too as is another 24 of them on $420 - 430K and another 20 staff on $440 - 450K. Management numbers earning that sort of coin are actually very low by comparison.
Of course the CEO and CFO earn the big bucks but there's a vast number of others that do extremely handsomely from the company as well and that's a fact recorded in the annual report, not just my opinion.

[Beagle]

AIR doing its best to keep Raz and his mates happy. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12285080

[pierre]

Very smart - and long overdue. Look forward to visiting it on my Auckland/Napier flight on Wednesday.

[winner69]

This guy will never fly in a 737MAX

and mention that Dreamliners not as good as made out to be

https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/travel/2019/11/15/boeing-737-max-safety/

[Beagle]

This guy will never fly in a 737MAX

and mention that Dreamliners not as good as made out to be

https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/travel/2019/11/15/boeing-737-max-safety/

Engine maintenance issues still dogging these "dream"liners a full two years after problems first occurred. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/thousands-of-passengers-to-be-affected-as-air-nz-cancels-christmas-flights/ar-BBWUdGm?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

Engine maintenance issues still dogging these "dream"liners a full two years after problems first occurred. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/thousands-of-passengers-to-be-affected-as-air-nz-cancels-christmas-flights/ar-BBWUdGm?ocid=spartandhp

...maybe its not just the engines .....no doubt we’ll find out Indie course

[Beagle]

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts#Ny1wU8OzXEMQvxdLv7VF Not good enough. Ten version of the engine which was supposed to have design enhancements to eliminate problems now itself needs more rigorous maintenance. AIR need to ante-up and seek meaningful compensation from Rolls Royce.
Discounts on future product is not good enough. Lemon engines for sure mate and probably always will be.
Was tempted to make a small top-up to my quite modest stake in AIR, (just 2.1% portfolio allocation), won't bother now.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12286107

[Raz]

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts#Ny1wU8OzXEMQvxdLv7VF Not good enough. Ten version of the engine which was supposed to have design enhancements to eliminate problems now itself needs more rigorous maintenance. AIR need to ante-up and seek meaningful compensation from Rolls Royce.
Discounts on future product is not good enough. Lemon engines for sure mate and probably always will be.
Was tempted to make a small top-up to my quite modest stake in AIR, (just 2.1% portfolio allocation), won't bother now.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12286107

I understand the issue is more than just the engines, with higher temps the profile and weight of the aircraft body has changed placing more stress on the engine's amongst other things. Have found nothing valid to back this us online, just a person in the industry mentioned this to me in the US.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP0s9zhvTxk&feature=youtu.be

Higher temps mentioned in this explanatory video. AIR now have their latest excuse for a possible downgrade....looks like issues remain until March. Which March is anyone's guess. IIRC this whole issue was originally going to be fully sorted by May 2018.
Take any deadline / schedule RR gives you with 64 million pinches of salt.

[winner69]

I thought the TENs were going to fix the TRENT problem?

Betcha there’s other problems with these Dreamliners - once a lemon always a lemon

[Beagle]

Nightmareliner

[Raz]

Nightmareliner

A number of airlines certainly have a strategy of having both main suppliers, Airbus and Boeing.

I'm sure this is more than an engine issue from what has been explained to me. It is an interrelated problem which is still dynamic as they gain more information of the composite of the plane heating up over repeated flights and therefore over it fuselage life. The weight gain, stress effects the engines and other parts of the planes systems. It all new, no previous experience given the composite of the plane is new.

I do wonder if it is economies of scale that made AIR just go just the one supplier way. Not proven to be a great risk management strategy regardless.

[Snow Leopard]

A number of airlines certainly have a strategy of having both main suppliers, Airbus and Boeing.

I'm sure this is more than an engine issue from what has been explained to me. It is an interrelated problem which is still dynamic as they gain more information of the composite of the plane heating up over repeated flights and therefore over it fuselage life. The weight gain, stress effects the engines and other parts of the planes systems. It all new, no previous experience given the composite of the plane is new.

I do wonder if it is economies of scale that made AIR just go just the one supplier way. Not proven to be a great risk management strategy regardless.

I am not aware of any serious concerns over the fuselage of these new fangled plastic planes.
However there always exists the possibility/probability that some problem will emerge in the future.

Rolls-Royce recently (a few months ago) concluded that their fix for the blade longevity problem did not last that long and are reworking it.

Here is an interesting link with regard to an ongoing engine issue:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ntsb-to-address-rare-though-deadly-forward-blade-en-462404/

[Snow Leopard]

which leads to this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/ntsb-calls-on-boeing-to-redesign-some-737s-after-deadly-2018-southwest-accident.html

[Beagle]

Great how they are experimenting with parts in the Trent 1000 engine through trial and error isn't it.
But Houston we have a problem, as I once watched a RR video that said there were 30,000 individual parts in those engines...that's a lot of potential trial and error :eek2:

But no worries because on CNBC the other day they said RR are picking up the tab for all costs with this latest aspect of this long running fiasco.
I see RR provisioning is now up to a whopping 2.4 Billion pounds and I sure hope AIR are going to get their fair share of that compensation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/07/bill-rolls-royces-trent-1000-engine-problems-hits-24bn/

[Raz]

Great how they are experimenting with parts in the Trent 1000 engine through trial and error isn't it.
But Houston we have a problem, as I once watched a RR video that said there were 30,000 individual parts in those engines...that's a lot of potential trial and error :eek2:

But no worries because on CNBC the other day they said RR are picking up the tab for all costs with this latest aspect of this long running fiasco.
I see RR provisioning is now up to a whopping 2.4 Billion pounds and I sure hope AIR are going to get their fair share of that compensation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/07/bill-rolls-royces-trent-1000-engine-problems-hits-24bn/


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117555516/air-new-zealand-engine-issues-have-potential-to-become-serious#comments

"The news that a permanent fix for the engines would not be available until 2021 would be a blow for the airline, she said."

[Rep]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117555516/air-new-zealand-engine-issues-have-potential-to-become-serious#comments

"The news that a permanent fix for the engines would not be available until 2021 would be a blow for the airline, she said."

The Trent 1000 is turning into the current RR management's RB211...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_RB211#Insolvency_and_aftermath

[Beagle]

I thought the TENs were going to fix the TRENT problem?

Betcha there’s other problems with these Dreamliners - once a lemon always a lemon

One wonders if its ever going to end ? https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/117526163/rollsroyce-tells-air-new-zealand-dreamliner-engines-unlikely-to-be-fixed-before-mid2021?rm=m#comments

[arc]

I am not aware of any serious concerns over the fuselage of these new fangled plastic planes.
However there always exists the possibility/probability that some problem will emerge in the future.

Rolls-Royce recently (a few months ago) concluded that their fix for the blade longevity problem did not last that long and are reworking it.

Here is an interesting link with regard to an ongoing engine issue:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ntsb-to-address-rare-though-deadly-forward-blade-en-462404/

An interesting item has quietly emerged for road racing bicycles made of carbon fiber. Professional Tour deFrance level cyclists can apply above average stress loading to their cycles (rough road conditions, frame flexing, high speed judders, oscillations, resonance etc). The frames have been examined and found to have developed microscopic fracture lines not visible to the eye but detectable with ultrasonic tools used for testing pipes in the steel industry. Carbon fiber sheet is composed of millions of very thin threads "bonded" into place with epoxy resin. Individual fibers can break and/or de-laminate over time. Both of these materials are technically "inert" and as such ideal for manufacturing items that wont "rust", but oxidization is just one element of industrial processes, chemical bonding and slow degradation of certain chemical elements over time is normal. Carbon fiber is flexible when in sheet form, the glue "epoxy" is the "solid" part of the process, epoxy breaks down over time and will develop micro fractures when repeatedly exposed to stresses such a when used to connect/interface to metallic components. The micro fractures are normally not a concern due to the combined flexibility and high number of carbon fibers in the sheet, unless the cycle is used for more than 4 years...

[stoploss]

An interesting item has quietly emerged for road racing bicycles made of carbon fiber. Professional Tour deFrance level cyclists can apply above average stress loading to their cycles (rough road conditions, frame flexing, high speed judders, oscillations, resonance etc). The frames have been examined and found to have developed microscopic fracture lines not visible to the eye but detectable with ultrasonic tools used for testing pipes in the steel industry. Carbon fiber sheet is composed of millions of very thin threads "bonded" into place with epoxy resin. Individual fibers can break and/or de-laminate over time. Both of these materials are technically "inert" and as such ideal for manufacturing items that wont "rust", but oxidization is just one element of industrial processes, chemical bonding and slow degradation of certain chemical elements over time is normal. Carbon fiber is flexible when in sheet form, the glue "epoxy" is the "solid" part of the process, epoxy breaks down over time and will develop micro fractures when repeatedly exposed to stresses such a when used to connect/interface to metallic components. The micro fractures are normally not a concern due to the combined flexibility and high number of carbon fibers in the sheet, unless the cycle is used for more than 4 years...
My carbon bike is 7 years :) ....Presumably it would be how much use it has actually had and the type of use . NZ chips roads not the best ?

[arc]

My carbon bike is 7 years :) ....Presumably it would be how much use it has actually had and the type of use . NZ chips roads not the best ?

Mine is about the same. I dont quite reach the tour defrance level of energy... by a country mile. :)
The early versions had carbon to metal joints and I know they definitely had problems. Im hoping that they have found very effective ways to mitigate the joining effect, as modern aircraft have carbon wings...

[winner69]

AIR social media team asked ‘what’s your dream view from the window seat.’

I responded - allowing punters to actually see out the windows (blinds up / tinting off)

Best response was:

Dream view?
A banner saying all further flights suspended until your aircraft can carry us without further damage to the earth's climate.

[causecelebre]

Dream View?

How about just a seat and an aeroplane to go with it?

[Beagle]

Erebus - 40 years on...we should have a thread for this so I started one here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11655-Erebus-40-year-anniversary&p=779510#post779510

[44wishlists]

AirNZ is going to wet lease a Cathay Pacific (CX)'s 777 from Jan to March, due to the Dreamliner's engine issue. And sequently, the ground handling of the airline have to pass to the local CX team, from the AirNZ Engineering unit.

[dobby41]

AIR the top airline edging out Singapore
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2019/11/air-new-zealand-named-best-airline-for-2020.html

[winner69]

You’re safe Beagle ...you don’t need to do airobics ....in flight work out intended only for economy pax

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/117840986/inflight-workouts-les-mills-launches-video-series-for-air-nz-longhaul-flights

[Beagle]

A cunning plan to prepare the travelling public for the next level in efficiency, the rumoured new even tighter "super economy" seats (that's a class even lower than economy for anyone wondering), these are better for you as you can do exercises while standing :rolleyes: https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/stand-up-seating-for-planes

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/117921031/secret-fares-air-new-zealands-50-business-class-seats

[value_investor]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/opec-saudi-arabia-and-russia-set-to-impose-deeper-oil-production-cuts.html


Great operation from OPEC, the worlds largest cartel in plain view of everyone too powerless to do anything. Expect AIR to decrease more in price next week. Still not at the low 2.xx values where I would pile in for some dividends.

[theace]

Bit of a breathing room for AIR ... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12293305

[44wishlists]

Bit of a breathing room for AIR ... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12293305

The arrangement had been confirmed at the end of November. You can refer to my post #15093

[winner69]

This is pissing off many of AIR’s more valuable loyal customers- Air NZ have just announced significant price increases for Elite Airpoints Dollar upgrades from February 2020

General comment is that AIR Business Class offering us pretty crap relative to competitors and it’s not going to be fixed for another 2 to 3 years

Many are following Raz and using other airlines instead of AIR for most of their international stuff.

[iceman]

Do you have a link winner ? Yes this will piss business class travelers off even more. Air NZ in my view is running a pretty risky game here as their BC offerings are not that competitive anymore, neither price nor service

[winner69]

Do you have a link winner ? Yes this will piss business class travelers off even more. Air NZ in my view is running a pretty risky game here as their BC offerings are not that competitive anymore, neither price nor service

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/elite-airpoints-upgrade-chart

Wow 480 to 890 on some sectors

Fortunately my days of overseas business travel are over but from what old mates and comments on travel blogs it does seem that AIR BC is relatively pretty poor as you say.

[iceman]

Thanks winner. This will pi.. off lots of their most loyal and highest spending customers

[winner69]

Thanks winner. This will pi.. off lots of their most loyal and highest spending customers

And no doubt their superior CX and customer data analytics will say impact goodwill wise will be minimal ...and the accountants will counting the extra zillions.

[Beagle]

I went onto AIR's website just as an ordinary shareholder Joe Bloggs and picked a random day next month to fly to Vancouver on 23 January and come back a week later.
One way prices were $849 economy, $2204 premium economy and $5804 business.
As a part owner of the airline I would have to ante up $1,355 extra to upgrade from economy to premium economy, (just 220 airpoints if I was elite status), or $3,600 of my cold hard cash to upgrade from premium economy to business (480 airpoints I probably got for nothing if I was elite status).

Why the heck are people complaining when they probably have these airpoints for nothing and I would have to pay mega bucks to upgrade a class despite actually owning part of the airline ?

Are Elite status flyers actually the owners of the airline ? How on earth could anyone complain the upgrade airpoints prices are unreasonable ?
Honestly...cry me a river....:rolleyes:

[pierre]

I went onto AIR's website just as an ordinary shareholder Joe Bloggs and picked a random day next month to fly to Vancouver on 23 January and come back a week later.
One way prices were $849 economy, $2204 premium economy and $5804 business.
As a part owner of the airline I would have to ante up $1,355 extra to upgrade from economy to premium economy, (just 220 airpoints if I was elite status), or $3,600 of my cold hard cash to upgrade from premium economy to business (480 airpoints I probably got for nothing if I was elite status).

Why the heck are people complaining when they probably have these airpoints for nothing and I would have to pay mega bucks to upgrade a class despite actually owning part of the airline ?

Are Elite status flyers actually the owners of the airline ? How on earth could anyone complain the upgrade airpoints prices are unreasonable ?
Honestly...cry me a river....:rolleyes:

Totally agree Beagle. I'm an Elite flyer and a shareholder and support my airline whenever I can. Elite upgrades paid for with Airpoints are an excellent perk and can even be confirmed almost a year in advance depending on availability.

I had a look at the changes to the upgrade rates and while some have increased, others have reduced. The main increases are on flights to the US particularly the really long hauls to Houston, Chicago and New York.

Nothing to get excited about either way and I doubt many or any Elite flyers will be very emotional about the changes or alter their flying habits.

[Beagle]

Thanks pierre for your balanced perspective, appreciated.

[iceman]

[QUOTE=Beagle;782146]I went onto AIR's website just as an ordinary shareholder Joe Bloggs and picked a random day next month to fly to Vancouver on 23 January and come back a week later.
One way prices were $849 economy, $2204 premium economy and $5804 business.
As a part owner of the airline I would have to ante up $1,355 extra to upgrade from economy to premium economy, (just 220 airpoints if I was elite status), or $3,600 of my cold hard cash to upgrade from premium economy to business (480 airpoints I probably got for nothing if I was elite status).

Why the heck are people complaining when they probably have these airpoints for nothing and I would have to pay mega bucks to upgrade a class despite actually owning part of the airline ?

Are Elite status flyers actually the owners of the airline ? How on earth could anyone complain the upgrade airpoints prices are unreasonable ?
Honestly...cry me a river....:”

Beagle this debate isn’t just about fairly minor changes to Airpoints. You and AIR can ignore the fact that AIR needs to provide a competitive package, i.e. prices, service, schedules, change fees and other benefits, if they want frequent fliers to choose them.

Like Pierre, I would like to fly AIR when possible and justifiable.

Some other frequent fliers on this site have claimed they never fly AIR anymore, simply because they get more bang for their buck using other airlines. Should this not be a concern to the "owners" ? It certainly concerns me as one of them.

[winner69]

iceman

Beagle this debate isn’t just about fairly minor changes to Airpoints. You and AIR can ignore the fact that AIR needs to provide a competitive package, i.e. prices, service, schedules, change fees and other benefits, if they want frequent fliers to choose them.

Like Pierre, I would like to fly AIR when possible and justifiable.

Some other frequent fliers on this site have claimed they never fly AIR anymore, simply because they get more bang for their buck using other airlines. Should this not be a concern to the "owners" ? It certainly concerns me as one of them.

That is the crux of the matter

Seems management and some ‘owners’ have their rose tinted glasses on as well as earplugs and not listening to their customers. The last full

[Beagle]

Fair enough Iceman. I'm not fortunate enough to travel on AIR very often and never in their business class so I am happy to concede you would have a far greater knowledge than I of whether AIR's product and service offer is up to the mark. Perhaps I misinterpreted your post but I remain of the view those elite upgrade prices are on extremely favourable terms. More too it than just inflight service eh mate. I see AIR looking after you and other valuable Koru club members https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12293511&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+16+D ecember+2019

From where I sit today there's always something to worry about with airlines, its such a dog eat dog business with very skinny margins and they're all ostensibly using the same product, just configured different ways and with staff at various cost level's.

What worries me the most about AIR to be quite honest with you and others is the relentless cost pressure from human resources costs and the endless (last year + 2.5-3%) wage settlements. This compounds away steadily over the years and I fear the airline is getting close to no longer being in a position to offer a world class product and service because they're no longer competitive due to their cost base.
The never ending Rolls Royce fiasco is a serious worry and I wonder if that ever gets resolved properly ?

At one point Qantas and AIR's share price and earnings were the same, a few years ago. They took a much stronger approach towards cost containment and look how well that's worked for them.
Shareholders would have been far better off holding Qantas shares over the last 5 years and that makes me sad.

I only have a 2% portfolio position and its only for dividend yield and I have no expectations whatsoever of capital gains going forward so I don't worry about AIR so much these days anymore. I'm not really inclined towards adding to my very modest position either.

Maybe the new CEO can do some work on cost reduction but the head of the union "Savage", (probably not his / her real name), has chosen a very apt pseudonym in my opinion. While workers get the lions share of the rewards and a culture on entitlement prevails, its hard to get especially excited about future shareholder rewards.

[Jaa]

Maybe the new CEO can do some work on cost reduction but the head of the union "Savage", (probably not his / her real name), has chosen a very apt pseudonym in my opinion. While workers get the lions share of the rewards and a culture on entitlement prevails, its hard to get especially excited about future shareholder rewards.

I think you will find, wage inflation and the culture of entitlement highest among top management from the CEO down over the last 5-10 years.

A culture of cost reduction should start at the top.

[Beagle]

I think you will find, wage inflation and the culture of entitlement highest among top management from the CEO down over the last 5-10 years.

A culture of cost reduction should start at the top.

Agree 100%. Just take 20% off everyone earning over $120,000 and the airline would be more competitive. Even that Savage union rep probably earning too much.

[couta1]

Agree 100%. Just take 20% off everyone earning over $120,000 and the airline would be more competitive. Even that Savage union rep probably earning too much. Yep the company is full of Troughers.

[winner69]

Well that tenure didn’t last long. Another sign AIR ain’t what it used to be and getting too hard for some.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/346106/314125.pdf

[winner69]

Yep the company is full of Troughers.

One trougher leaving ...probably the job did for him what he wanted

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/346106/314125.pdf

[Beagle]

That's quite a loss. Him and Chris probably great mates and since Chris has gone...
"committed to delivering outstanding uniquely Kiwi experiences every day.” Suppose that's code for their (frequently quite bizarre), safety video's.

[BlackPeter]

Well that tenure didn’t last long. Another sign AIR ain’t what it used to be and getting too hard for some.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/346106/314125.pdf

In the past it looks like he was pretty good in timing his departures ... holders might ignore this indicator at their own peril.

Never forget - AIR is a cyclical ...

[Balance]

In the past it looks like he was pretty good in timing his departures ... holders might ignore this indicator at their own peril.

Never forget - AIR is a cyclical ...

Yup - that's been his key to success. All in the timing.

[peat]

Key said

"Air New Zealand is a world class company that all Kiwis can be proud of. The fortunes of the airline and our nation are inextricably linked."

Oh dear. I hope not. Went under once.

[Jaa]

The history of ex-politicians on boards is pretty abysmal so got to be good that John Key is moving on.

[Sideshow Bob]

The history of ex-politicians on boards is pretty abysmal so got to be good that John Key is moving on.

From a business sense, would think he is above-average compared with most ex-poli's in the business world.....but then again, that wouldn't be that difficult.

[Jaa]

From a business sense, would think he is above-average compared with most ex-poli's in the business world.....but then again, that wouldn't be that difficult.

Bit of help with Air NZ's hedging maybe but no airline, engineering or marketing experience. Was a poor appointment in my mind, perhaps explained by Christopher Luxon now standing for National.

Anyway market seems to like it, back over $3 she flies.

[Blue Skies]

Sharply rising oil prices due heightened US Iran tensions might not be so good for airline stocks on Monday.

[Blue Skies]

At these levels, happy to reduce my holding from 6% to 3% of portfolio. Still a lot of hurdles to face this year & next from what I hear, & you'ld have to be tone deaf not to hear a few alarm bells with new CEO asking all employees to find & suggest areas to make savings. Not the first time an airline CEO has done this & it's not a good look for the brand, but surely borne out of necessity.

[Beagle]

My opinion is AIR has got bloated with an extremely long period of many years of wage settlements with unions at rates materially above the above inflation rate and the compounding effect of this is on an international basis they're not especially competitive any more.

Thank you for posting. In my opinion its good that Greg Foran is looking at cutting costs, that should be his focus. I'm sitting on this being ~ 2% of my portfolio and have no plans to change that.

[Snow Leopard]

At these levels, happy to reduce my holding from 6% to 3% of portfolio. Still a lot of hurdles to face this year & next from what I hear, & you'ld have to be tone deaf not to hear a few alarm bells with new CEO asking all employees to find & suggest areas to make savings. Not the first time an airline CEO has done this & it's not a good look for the brand, but surely borne out of necessity.

Having the Nom de Post of Blue Skies and being negative on an airline is a bit of a contradiction don't you think?

It is not easy running an airline.

[tim23]

My opinion is AIR has got bloated with an extremely long period of many years of wage settlements with unions at rates materially above the above inflation rate and the compounding effect of this is on an international basis they're not especially competitive any more.

Thank you for posting. In my opinion its good that Greg Foran is looking at cutting costs, that should be his focus. I'm sitting on this being ~ 2% of my portfolio and have no plans to change that.

A strong Union can work well for both parties if there is a high number of staff in collectives easier for employer to negotiate collective agreements and if these are good reduces turnover of staff so good around in my opinion.

[Chinesekiwi]

Hmmm Beagle, I will respectfully disagree re the Union part of your comments.

The settlement rates have been not that far off inflation and have been progressively more parsimonious.

Air NZ has a responsible union it deals with and negotiations have been tough but fair over the past few annual rounds.

Unions have proven good for workers at the company and the company itself has expressed satisfaction with outcomes jointly negotiated.

If you wish to want to see cost cuts - then I can suggest middle to higher management levels. There are large numbers of folks at the head office with titles with the word manager in it (and the salary package to go with said title) and yet they have no direct reports.

There is money on the table - in the head office.

[Blue Skies]

Having the Nom de Post of Blue Skies and being negative on an airline is a bit of a contradiction don't you think?

It is not easy running an airline.


Ha, yes agree on both counts.
But sentimentality has blinded me in the past & as you know it's such a cyclical business & facing v significant disruption from these maintenance issues with little resolution in sight.
Easy to get too attached to a particular company but Ive seen this AIR movie before, & each time kicked myself for not reducing my holding while watching the SP slide backwards towards the 260's.
Maybe it won't happen this time but we'll see.
Still hold a significant number at 3%, airlines far too seductive for me to let them all go. :)

[causecelebre]

If you wish to want to see cost cuts - then I can suggest middle to higher management levels. There are large numbers of folks at the head office with titles with the word manager in it (and the salary package to go with said title) and yet they have no direct reports.

There is money on the table - in the head office.

Agree. In the digital team alone four significant restructures and three exec level managers in the last six years alone. With every restructure comes a change of title and an increase in the number of managers along with increased inertia driven by fear of the next restructure.

[couta1]

Hmmm Beagle, I will respectfully disagree re the Union part of your comments.

The settlement rates have been not that far off inflation and have been progressively more parsimonious.

Air NZ has a responsible union it deals with and negotiations have been tough but fair over the past few annual rounds.

Unions have proven good for workers at the company and the company itself has expressed satisfaction with outcomes jointly negotiated.

If you wish to want to see cost cuts - then I can suggest middle to higher management levels. There are large numbers of folks at the head office with titles with the word manager in it (and the salary package to go with said title) and yet they have no direct reports.

There is money on the table - in the head office. The company is full of Troughers for sure and they have really cranked up their prices on domestic routes of late compared to a year ago.

[Beagle]

Greg Foran will bring a tight focus on cost, something that's badly needed at AIR. Be extremely rigorous and thorough would be my advice to him.
Herald reported recently in his first 100 days he plans to meet with 1200 managers and senior staff within the airline.
I think the number 1200 is half the problem...

[Preston]

Christopher Luxon has been cutting costs for the last 7 or so years. It’s not like someone has just forgotten to do this. Ask any flight attendant and you won’t hear the end of it I’m told.

Unstable oil prices, no real growth (in fact deferred orders of A/C), no real scope for big growth moves (NY and maybe somewhere else I’m guessing) Flight crew are paid on the balance of it less than other comparative airlines. Much more competition Internationally, less domestically. No real fleet expansion on the horizon.

The only thing I see that is attractive is the dividend return and I’m not a full legend, but I’m pretty sure that if I were a Baby Boomer selling up my property, that the dividend would look mighty fine in a pretty secure investment like this.

just my two cents folks, no digs or otherwise.

[Beagle]

22 cps in annual fully dividends = 22 / 0.78 = 30.56 cps gross = 10% gross yield at $3.05.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118904061/air-new-zealands-aucklandnew-york-airfares-go-on-sale-starting-at-1720-return

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118862454/supercharging-air-new-zealand-five-industry-experts-share-their-tips
Shane Jones is most certainly NOT an industry expert.

[oldtech]

At current prices, AIR yield is very nearly on a par with HLG.

HLG: 44 cps divies, SP = $6.01

(Although for the past few days the share action on HLG has been weird - I assume some sort of bot action?)

[Snow Leopard]

....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118862454/supercharging-air-new-zealand-five-industry-experts-share-their-tips
Shane Jones is most certainly NOT an industry expert.

Would seem that the aviation consultant and former AIR executive is not much of an expert either!

[couta1]

At current prices, AIR yield is very nearly on a par with HLG.

HLG: 44 cps divies, SP = $6.01

(Although for the past few days the share action on HLG has been weird - I assume some sort of bot action?) The one that doesnt fly is the better stock to own.

[Beagle]

At current prices, AIR yield is very nearly on a par with HLG.

HLG: 44 cps divies, SP = $6.01

(Although for the past few days the share action on HLG has been weird - I assume some sort of bot action?)

Interestingly both are long established companies. Air in it's 78th or is it 79th year and some history on HLG from their website


Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited is a retailer of menswear and womenswear, listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange.
The company operates in excess of 120 stores, with 35 stores in Australia.
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited was formed in 1985 on the merger of Hallenstein Brothers - an iconic menswear retailer first established in 1873, and Glassons - a fast fashion retailer founded in the early 1900's.
Hallenstein Glasson is recognised as New Zealand's leading specialty retailer, and is now making an impact in the Australian market.

For what its worth I have exactly the same number of shares in each company.

[BlackPeter]

Sounds like their are more questions about Boeing's safety standards and trustworthiness. Here is another example from them for burying the truth after an accident:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/business/boeing-737-accidents.htm

You sort of wonder whether AIR's decision to go for Boeing in their latest big acquisition spree was a good one.

[Benny1]

Sounds like their are more questions about Boeing's safety standards and trustworthiness. Here is another example from them for burying the truth after an accident:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/business/boeing-737-accidents.htm

You sort of wonder whether AIR's decision to go for Boeing in their latest big acquisition spree was a good one.
Have through the grapevine that United who are flying 787-10's between SFO and AKL this summer for the first time are regularly locking out 30-40 seats due to payload issues..
The -10's may work for some Asian flights but I am skeptical of their performance on long haul flights to the west coast states and beyond..

[Beagle]

Have through the grapevine that United who are flying 787-10's between SFO and AKL this summer for the first time are regularly locking out 30-40 seats due to payload issues..
The -10's may work for some Asian flights but I am skeptical of their performance on long haul flights to the west coast states and beyond..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118904061/air-new-zealands-aucklandnew-york-airfares-go-on-sale-starting-at-1720-return
17 hours 40 minutes on the southbound return journey must surely be pushing the fuel endurance limit of these aircraft ?
I guess they can easily stop at Fiji when headwinds are adversely strong...and I would think that might happen on the odd occasion.
How many of these birds on the ground now mate as this RR fiasco drags on and on and on...?

[Benny1]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118904061/air-new-zealands-aucklandnew-york-airfares-go-on-sale-starting-at-1720-return
17 hours 40 minutes on the southbound return journey must surely be pushing the fuel endurance limit of these aircraft ?
I guess they can easily stop at Fiji when headwinds are adversely strong...and I would think that might happen on the odd occasion.
How many of these birds on the ground now mate as this RR fiasco drags on and on and on...?
Still only one grounded been a couple of engine changes lately that have managed to keep a couple more in the air..
New York will push the -9's...would imagine there will be a few tech stops required every now and then when headwinds dictate..
Would doubt they could carry much freight if any...
Can be an expensive exercise diverting to an island... Especially if your crew are close or do run out of duty hrs...

[Beagle]

Still only one grounded been a couple of engine changes lately that have managed to keep a couple more in the air..
New York will push the -9's...would imagine there will be a few tech stops required every now and then when headwinds dictate..
Would doubt they could carry much freight if any...
Can be an expensive exercise diverting to an island... Especially if your crew are close or do run out of duty hrs...

Thanks Benny. I can't help wondering is these RR engines will ever achieve their design durability ?
"Quick splash and dash" will need to be quick for sure !
I guess with aircraft fuel pumping systems you can shift fuel around and run it under 10% residual capacity with an acceptable degree of safety ? When I owned a fancy boat I would never plan to go under 15% in case of fuel starvation due to pitch and heave movement in potential heavy weather conditions. No fun running a boat's engine(s) dry in rough conditions :eek2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8qBvw3ofyE

[Blue Skies]

Yet another damming report on Boeing. After the alarming reports from employees coming out of the plant in North Carolina & the 737 Max disasters, looks like a pattern.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2020/01/20/americans-hid-boeings-role-in-2009-turkish-airlines-plane-crash-nyt



Sorry BP didn't see you'd already posted a link, but anyway yours behind a paywall whereas this one isn't .

[BlackPeter]

Yet another damming report on Boeing. After the alarming reports from employees coming out of the plant in North Carolina & the 737 Max disasters, looks like a pattern.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2020/01/20/americans-hid-boeings-role-in-2009-turkish-airlines-plane-crash-nyt



Sorry BP didn't see you'd already posted a link, but anyway yours behind a paywall whereas this one isn't .

No problem, the more the merrier! Though - I think the NYT offers ten free reads per month, but yes, you probably need to register (for free) to get them.

[Blue Skies]

Coronovirus, just to add another worry to the pile.
Luxon & Key timed their exits perfectly I reckon.

[bull....]

Coronovirus, just to add another worry to the pile.
Luxon & Key timed their exits perfectly I reckon.

think air stock price isnt reflecting the risk of this virus to travel , first case just announced in the US from a chinese traveller. NZ slack response is a worry considering we get so many chinese travellers to NZ.

Dow falls more than 100 points after CDC announces first US case of coronavirus, airlines decline
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/us-futures-point-sharply-lower.html

[bull....]

China coronavirus deaths rise to 17, heightening global alarm
Airports round the world stepped up screening from China. ( not NZ)

After official appeals to stay calm, many Chinese were cancelling trips, buying face masks, avoiding public places

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/china-coronavirus-death-toll-in-chinas-hubei-reaches-17-state-tv.html

[BlackPeter]

China coronavirus deaths rise to 17, heightening global alarm
Airports round the world stepped up screening from China. ( not NZ)

After official appeals to stay calm, many Chinese were cancelling trips, buying face masks, avoiding public places

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/china-coronavirus-death-toll-in-chinas-hubei-reaches-17-state-tv.html

Just remind us - what did the previous health scares (like SARS, Ebola, ....) do to the NZX? I doubt that this will make any meaningful dent, but potentially we might see some buying opportunities for anything tourism related ...

[bull....]

Just remind us - what did the previous health scares (like SARS, Ebola, ....) do to the NZX? I doubt that this will make any meaningful dent, but potentially we might see some buying opportunities for anything tourism related ...

while it is early days in the virus outbreak to know if it is going to be a big problem. an astute investor should always access risk weather real or perceived. so china as one of nz biggest incoming tourist markets would be a big impact if say all china people were banned from entering nz because of a full blown world pandemic

[bull....]

actually just released

china has banned all travel

Wuhan Is Going Under Quarantine no one allowed to travel from city

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22/wuhan-quarantine-china-coronavirus-lunar-new-year/

[bull....]

China may have also drastically under reported the number of people infected by a mysterious coronavirus that has since spread around the world.

But there are fears that figure could be as high as 10,000, with warnings the new strain is "as deadly as Spanish flu" which killed 50 million people

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12302723

[bull....]

and here in NZ where we have so many chinese coming and going everyday , the govt sits on there hands doing nothing while many many countries are rushing to put screening in place. think movis bovis etc etc border security is so slack here

[BlackPeter]

actually just released

china has banned all travel

Wuhan Is Going Under Quarantine no one allowed to travel from city

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22/wuhan-quarantine-china-coronavirus-lunar-new-year/

Not quite. They banned all travel from Wuhan. The remaining 1374 million Chinese people who don't live in Wuhan are still free to travel wherever they please (and can afford).

[bull....]

Not quite. They banned all travel from Wuhan. The remaining 1374 million Chinese people who don't live in Wuhan are still free to travel wherever they please (and can afford).

at the moment , but if it gets worse who knows? by the way when sars broke out full on markets fell 10%

[BlackPeter]

and here in NZ where we have so many chinese coming and going everyday , the govt sits on there hands doing nothing while many many countries are rushing to put screening in place. think movis bovis etc etc border security is so slack here

Lets face it - given the incubation period is 2 weeks (which is quite long) - what exactly do you expect authorities to do? The "scanning" implemented by other countries only catches people who are already sick, but not during the incubation period.

Sure - we could just ban all travel (i.e. kill of import, export, tourism - i.e. livelihoods) ... but even then is it likely that we have already infected people in the country ... which will fall sick in due course ...

[BlackPeter]

at the moment , but if it gets worse who knows? by the way when sars broke out full on markets fell 10%

cheers - i.e. nice little correction might be ahead :);

[bull....]

Lets face it - given the incubation period is 2 weeks (which is quite long) - what exactly do you expect authorities to do? The "scanning" implemented by other countries only catches people who are already sick, but not during the incubation period.

Sure - we could just ban all travel (i.e. kill of import, export, tourism - i.e. livelihoods) ... but even then is it likely that we have already infected people in the country ... which will fall sick in due course ...

as many countries are doing is preventative measures to prevent a big outbreak becoming a big gdp impact event. NZ as usual will probably only do something when **** hits the fan like someone dying from it bit like movis bovis only did something when it was too late.

[Blue Skies]

Just remind us - what did the previous health scares (like SARS, Ebola, ....) do to the NZX? I doubt that this will make any meaningful dent, but potentially we might see some buying opportunities for anything tourism related ...

Interesting question.
At the time of the SAARS outbreak, Statistics NZ figures showed visitor numbers from Asia fell by 26.8% & from the US & by 9.7% compared to the same month previous year. AIR had to reduce capacity on Asian routes for 6 months as load factors dropped by 5.7%.

The Ebola outbreaks occurred mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo & West African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea & Nigeria none of which we have direct flights to or significant travel between.

With around 30 flights a week between NZ & China and over 400,000 international arrivals a year from China, am sure the govt & airline & tourism industry keeping a very close watch on this latest epidemic.

However, to keep some perspective, 17 deaths out of a population of 11.8 million in Wuhan so far.

I've always thought contagion & resulting panic is one of the biggest risks to airline industry & it's not if but a question of when.
Apart from the travellers, how would the company deal with a situation where pilots and cabin crew refused to expose themselves to the risk by flying to a destination. I don't believe the airline could impose that on anyone.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting question.
At the time of the SAARS outbreak, Statistics NZ figures showed visitor numbers from Asia fell by 26.8% & from the US & by 9.7% compared to the same month previous year. AIR had to reduce capacity on Asian routes for 6 months as load factors dropped by 5.7%.

The Ebola outbreaks occurred mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo & West African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea & Nigeria none of which we have direct flights to or significant travel between.

With around 30 flights a week between NZ & China and over 400,000 international arrivals a year from China, am sure the govt & airline & tourism industry keeping a very close watch on this latest epidemic.

However, to keep some perspective, 17 deaths out of a population of 11.8 million in Wuhan so far.

I've always thought contagion & resulting panic is one of the biggest risks to airline industry & it's not if but a question of when.
Apart from the travellers, how would the company deal with a situation where pilots and cabin crew refused to expose themselves to the risk by flying to a destination. I don't believe the airline could impose that on anyone.

Cheers. And yes, as indicated earlier - if this turns into a full blown epidemics with significant impact on the traveling public, then there well might be buying opportunities for stocks like AIR. Just important to get the timing right.

On the bright side - if AIR needs to reduce flights, than the nightmare liner issues might be easier to mitigate for them ;);

BTW - just found a relevant article in the guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jan/21/european-shares-dip-as-chinese-coronavirus-concerns-deepen

[Oliver Mander]

Interesting BlackPeter. Admit that I've just provided one of those "buying opportunities" - I sold out of AIR yesterday. Have held for ages, but I remember the impact of the SAARS, and thought it was better to be prepared for the downside. Suspect the cash will end up in the Finance sector...more specifically the HGH sector :-)!

[iceman]

Interesting BlackPeter. Admit that I've just provided one of those "buying opportunities" - I sold out of AIR yesterday. Have held for ages, but I remember the impact of the SAARS, and thought it was better to be prepared for the downside. Suspect the cash will end up in the Finance sector...more specifically the HGH sector :-)!

I've done the same. Sold all my AIR shares a couple of days ago and very likely to end up in the same place as yours, despite HGH being 21.5% of my NZX portfolio already.

[Cadalac123]

Here's to hoping AIR dips significantly so I can enter after this passes lol

[silverblizzard888]

All travel tours from China will be suspended starting monday, looks like a dip will be coming quite soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

[iceman]

Yes this virus outbreak is starting to look ugly. Highly likely to affect nearly all tourism related businesses and potentially not limited to tourism. The spread/infection rate of this virus is terrifying

[silverblizzard888]

China makes up about 11.5% of NZ's total travel numbers (450k out of 3.8 million visitors), the impact could be quite large.
Not to mention the indirect impact of people travelling less in general out of fear for the virus.

[Beagle]

I've done the same. Sold all my AIR shares a couple of days ago and very likely to end up in the same place as yours, despite HGH being 21.5% of my NZX portfolio already.

I posted a couple of weeks back I saw AIR as primarily a yield stock with little prospect for capital gain. At that time if I remember correctly the price was in the mid - late 280's. I think in the late 290's now with recent developments some caution is warranted and I see some modest potential downside risk from here so as a capital preservation measure I also liquidated my small position today. It will be interesting to see how Greg Foran gets on with the unions given his reputation for cost cutting. I'll watch from the sidelines for a while.

[iceman]

I feel we have done the correct thing in mitigating an obvious risk Beagle. This virus scare is already having a much higher impact than many realise and selling to avoid a potential loss of capital is neither scaremongering nor panic. In the fairly small company I work for, 10 Chinese workers were supposed to be flown back home next week and 12 flown from China to Argentina for work. Neither will now happen. That’s 66 airfares (3 legs each ) cancelled just from our small company and this time they were all meant to be with AIR. . There will be millions of planned airfares around the World being cancelled in similar circumstances. Remember it’s not just tourists that use airplanes.

[Beagle]

Yes, thanks for that reminder Iceman. I feel for you in your position. It must be a very nervous time for you given how closely you work with many people from that part of the world. Best wishes mate.

I had valuation concerns in the high 290's anyway irrespective of this thing. Yes, good pragmatic risk management is neither panic, illogical or scaremongering.
Latest date showed tourism starting to slow down before this scare anyway, (hasn't really been discussed on here before), so I am not so sure on the long term growth story any more. Back to being a pure cyclical and we're now on a down cycle ?

On a brighter note, if they have to shut down all flights to China that's an effective way to sure-up the supply of aircraft to ensure adequate supply on other routes while they continue to work their way at "glacial speed" through what feels like the never ending nightmareliner fiasco.

[dreamcatcher]

I see this as a blip not a change in business fundamentals which will still be a long term low single digit growth trend and yield stock. Continue to like brand strength and strong market share/economics for NZ domestic flights. Will continue to hold long term and potentially top up if share price over reacts.

I'm of the same opinion and can't be bothered selling out of a high yielding stock every time there's a scare ...........

[winner69]

Time to play the “Significant Items’ trick again.

Some $50m worth this year

The disestablishment of these hedges really expensive eh ...so previous years profits have been ‘overstated’ under of guise of lowering earnings volatility

And most of the proceeds from selling the slot at Heathrow going into restructuring the cost base ...lol

Everybody will say the $30m of restructuring will say non-recurring / abnormal but not really as they are always doing this stuff



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/347578/315770.pdf

[bull....]

Time to play the “Significant Items’ trick again.

Some $50m worth this year

The disestablishment of these hedges really expensive eh ...so previous years profits have been ‘overstated’ under of guise of lowering earnings volatility

And most of the proceeds from selling the slot at Heathrow going into restructuring the cost base ...lol

Everybody will say the $30m of restructuring will say non-recurring / abnormal but not really as they are always doing this stuff



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/347578/315770.pdf


novel way of doing a profit downgrade. next one will be when they downgrade earnings for yr 21 due to corona virus

[winner69]

novel way of doing a profit downgrade. next one will be when they downgrade earnings for yr 21 due to corona virus

Guidance unchanged at $350m to $450m (last year $374m)

But year ends June so plenty of time for virus impacts to hit

Mind you December looked like it was a very good month for them

[bull....]

Guidance unchanged at $350m to $450m (last year $374m)

But year ends June so plenty of time for virus impacts to hit

Mind you December looked like it was a very good month for them

inevitable if virus contagion spreads more to other countries , travel will be impacted, hence air earnings

[Beagle]

inevitable if virus contagion spreads more to other countries , travel will be impacted, hence air earnings

Yeap...a fairly high percentage of people tell me they catch something on a long haul flight due to the way airlines recirculate the air within the cabin. I can see this virus really putting people off flying in quite a big way.

[bull....]

Yeap...a fairly high percentage of people tell me they catch something on a long haul flight due to the way airlines recirculate the air within the cabin. I can see this virus really putting people off flying in quite a big way.

too true so unhealthy to fly with all those circulating bugs

[couta1]

I'm quite surprised this stock hasnt dropped below $2.50 on sentiment alone, shows the strength of the business.

[bull....]

I'm quite surprised this stock hasnt dropped below $2.50 on sentiment alone, shows the strength of the business.

give it time , aus isnt open yet.

[Beagle]

Guidance unchanged at $350m to $450m (last year $374m)

But year ends June so plenty of time for virus impacts to hit

Mind you December looked like it was a very good month for them

Doubt the $20-$25m reorganisation costs will be the end of it by any means. Wait till Greg Foran gets on board, has his meetings with 1200 senior staff in the first 100 days and we'll see what reorganisation costs come out in FY21.

Coutts, I reckon this virus is going to hit them like a sledgehammer. I wouldn't get on an aircraft for any reason to go anywhere at present.

[bull....]

Interesting question.
At the time of the SAARS outbreak, Statistics NZ figures showed visitor numbers from Asia fell by 26.8% & from the US & by 9.7% compared to the same month previous year. AIR had to reduce capacity on Asian routes for 6 months as load factors dropped by 5.7%.

The Ebola outbreaks occurred mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo & West African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea & Nigeria none of which we have direct flights to or significant travel between.

With around 30 flights a week between NZ & China and over 400,000 international arrivals a year from China, am sure the govt & airline & tourism industry keeping a very close watch on this latest epidemic.

However, to keep some perspective, 17 deaths out of a population of 11.8 million in Wuhan so far.

I've always thought contagion & resulting panic is one of the biggest risks to airline industry & it's not if but a question of when.
Apart from the travellers, how would the company deal with a situation where pilots and cabin crew refused to expose themselves to the risk by flying to a destination. I don't believe the airline could impose that on anyone.

good stats , had a big impact on air earnings

[Snow Leopard]

...
The disestablishment of these hedges really expensive eh ...so previous years profits have been ‘overstated’ under of guise of lowering earnings volatility
...

Best wait see what how the accounts actually read when published.
All these accounting changes seem to take from one part of the accounts and give back to another.

Makes the true picture a little more fun to decipher.

And AIR can always maintain their profits by fleecing domestic passengers again and again:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119082980/airports-accuse-airlines-of-pushing-up-domestic-air-fares-after-curbing-flights

Happy flying.

[dreamcatcher]

Jetfuel fallen 32c over last 3 weeks to $1.70 gallon

[brend]

Coutts, I reckon this virus is going to hit them like a sledgehammer. I wouldn't get on an aircraft for any reason to go anywhere at present.

AIR are allowing flights to be changed with no additional cost atm. We brought our flights forward to tomorrow so we can get home.

[dobby41]

I wouldn't get on an aircraft for any reason to go anywhere at present.

I'll just have to wear my industrial face mask tommorrow on my flight.
Makes me look a bit like Darth Vader.

[bull....]

Shane Jones reaches for megaphone after airports attack airline price hikesNZ First may have to campaign at the next election on a fund to improve regional aviation, MP Shane Jones says.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119082980/airports-accuse-airlines-of-pushing-up-domestic-air-fares-after-curbing-flights


funny they campained last election on moving the port and the port hasnt moved lol

[dreamcatcher]

Jetfuel fallen 32c over last 3 weeks to $1.70 gallon now $1.64 .......and continuing to plunge

[BlackPeter]

Jetfuel fallen 32c over last 3 weeks to $1.70 gallon now $1.64 .......and continuing to plunge

Reduced demand and sufficient supply equals to ?

Economy 101.

[dreamcatcher]

Reduced demand and sufficient supply equals to ?

Economy 101.

Hopefully cheap fuel =.......PROFIT as NON FLYERS today will FLY tomorrow probably no LOSS

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/white-house-discussing-china-travel-restrictions-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

If this happens I would expect N.Z. to follow suit very quickly.

[bull....]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/white-house-discussing-china-travel-restrictions-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

If this happens I would expect N.Z. to follow suit very quickly.

a lot of countries are advising its safer not to travel to china at the moment

[Beagle]

a lot of countries are advising its safer not to travel to china at the moment

I wouldn't (for all the tea in China), and I feel sorry for the staff on board aircraft that are required to do so at the moment as part of their job. They're really earning their pay at the moment :eek2:

[boysy]

CORONAVIRUS: BRITISH AIRWAYS SUSPENDS ALL FLIGHTS TO MAINLAND CHINA


https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-china-british-airways-flights-suspended-death-toll-wuhan-a9307246.html

[bull....]

CORONAVIRUS: BRITISH AIRWAYS SUSPENDS ALL FLIGHTS TO MAINLAND CHINA


https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-china-british-airways-flights-suspended-death-toll-wuhan-a9307246.html


when air nz going to do the same

[Balance]

when air nz going to do the same

One suspects BA and the other airlines have stopped flights mainly due to hugely reduced demand - no point operating empty planes and losing tens of millions of dollars.

Air NZ by contrast probably still has demand - same as Qantas for that matter.

Watch for the lead from Qantas.

[iceman]

Clearly demand in flights to and from China is going to fall very fast for all airlines. AIR will not be any different https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/119138675/coronavirus-world-airlines-suspend-china-flights-cut-services-on-virus-fears

[Balance]

Clearly demand in flights to and from China is going to fall very fast for all airlines. AIR will not be any different https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/119138675/coronavirus-world-airlines-suspend-china-flights-cut-services-on-virus-fears

Probably be different from other airlines for one reason - still enough travellers between China & NZ, and I think most will prefer to fly with Air NZ than the China based airlines.

NZ & companies associated with NZ still maintain a first rate reputation for health and quality than equivalent China companies.

[bull....]

Probably be different from other airlines for one reason - still enough travellers between China & NZ, and I think most will prefer to fly with Air NZ than the China based airlines.

NZ & companies associated with NZ still maintain a first rate reputation for health and quality than equivalent China companies.

dont the planes all have the same air con systems re circulating all those nasty bugs

[Balance]

dont the planes all have the same air con systems re circulating all those nasty bugs

Perception.

It is all in the perception.

[Zaphod]

Perception.

It is all in the perception.

Around 50% of the air is recirculated, with the rest being drawn into the cabin externally via the compressor for heating.

[Balance]

Talked to a contact a few minutes ago - he flew from ChCh to Auckland yesterday for one of his bi-weekly trips.

"Flight is normally full but this flight was half empty, and conspicuously absent were Asian passengers."

Starting to happen?

[Beagle]

Talked to a contact a few minutes ago - he flew from ChCh to Auckland yesterday for one of his bi-weekly trips.

"Flight is normally full but this flight was half empty, and conspicuously absent were Asian passengers."

Starting to happen?

I think so. I don't care what anyone else thinks but I would not get on an aircraft or a cruise ship for ANY reason at present regardless of whether I had paid for the trip already in full or not. I noted the pilots of the aircraft evacuating Americans out of China on that special charter flight were fully kitted out with full hazmat suit, goggles and facemask. Look how the ground crew are kitted out too. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/flight-carrying-us-citizens-from-wuhan-arrives-in-california-cdc-says.html

My view is this virus will significantly affect AIR.

[iceman]

I think so. I don't care what anyone else thinks but I would not get on an aircraft or a cruise ship for ANY reason at present regardless of whether I had paid for the trip already in full or not. I noted the pilots of the aircraft evacuating Americans out of China on that special charter flight were fully kitted out with full hazmat suit, goggles and facemask. Make of that what you will... My read is this will significantly affect AIR and I have therefore sold all my shares...they were probably very fully priced at $2.98 when I sold anyway.

Couldn't agree more but unfortunately don't have the option of not travelling and am boarding a long haul flight on Monday. Going to South America so not directly into the storm but it will be interesting to see if I notice any notable reduction in passengers on this route that I travel often.

[Beagle]

Best wishes mate. Try and get yourself a high quality face mask or two and wash your hands frequently.

[dreamcatcher]

Couldn't agree more but unfortunately don't have the option of not travelling and am boarding a long haul flight on Monday. Going to South America so not directly into the storm but it will be interesting to see if I notice any notable reduction in passengers on this route that I travel often.
And there you have it, some people can postpone flights others can't but a few weeks from now will fly as life moves on. Probably lockdown will lift in 10-15 days after incubation periods over and life returns to normal. Seen on net recently 50K people die from the flu yearly how does that compare to coronavirus ?

We will find out the answer in a few weeks time I suppose.

[Blue Skies]

Best wishes mate. Try and get yourself a high quality face mask or two and wash your hands frequently.


And don't forget the eyes.
The moist mucus membrane of the eyes are another ideal entry point for viruses, either from rubbing with your hands or catching a sneeze.
Wear some glasses.
Protect mouth, nose and eyes.

[winner69]

Has anybody used ASK OSCAR a question on chat thing on their website?

[bull....]

phew no need to worry air nz have a cure for coronavirus

Aircraft have very sophisticated cabin air conditioning systems that filter out organisms such as viruses from the air that is recirculated through the cabin," he said.
Cleaning agents used at the end of a flight were effective against viruses such as the coronavirus.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12304495


thats a relief they just need to let WHO know there cleaning agents kill the virus lol

[peat]

Aircraft have very sophisticated cabin air conditioning systems that filter out organisms such as viruses from the air that is recirculated through the cabin," he said.
Cleaning agents used at the end of a flight were effective against viruses such as the coronavirus.


wow really?
sounds like BS and yet its coming from a medical Dr.

[iceman]

Has anybody used ASK OSCAR a question on chat thing on their website?

Yes I have a couple of times and have found it to be rubbish for my enquiries

[King1212]

Crude oil is so low...but flights are all canceled....airport will be impacted...as well as AIR, ..hotels... tourism... hospitality. mainfreight n freighway will be the winner of low oil... especially the petrol price will go down as the government cracking it down

[kiora]

And there you have it, some people can postpone flights others can't but a few weeks from now will fly as life moves on. Probably lockdown will lift in 10-15 days after incubation periods over and life returns to normal. Seen on net recently 50K people die from the flu yearly how does that compare to coronavirus ?

We will find out the answer in a few weeks time I suppose.

2/100 coronavirus versus 1/1000 flu ?

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/coronavirus-precautions-for-volunteer-flight-crew-being-worked-out/ar-BBZuI7W?ocid=spartandhp

Volunteers are very brave souls. I hope that plane is thoroughly decontaminated upon return before being put back into regular service.

I wouldn't fly anywhere at present, not even domestically. Surely I am not the only person that's risk averse and there will be a material decline in travel right throughout AIR's network. That's how I see it anyway...

[Raz]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/coronavirus-precautions-for-volunteer-flight-crew-being-worked-out/ar-BBZuI7W?ocid=spartandhp

Volunteers are very brave souls. I hope that plane is thoroughly decontaminated upon return before being put back into regular service.

I wouldn't fly anywhere at present, not even domestically. Surely I am not the only person that's risk averse and there will be a material decline in travel right throughout AIR's network. That's how I see it anyway...

I'm not flying and will just accept the hit on a trip to Sydney mid-Feb with family for a concert. Everything does suggest this is a serious virus from the outset and nothing has mitigated that to date.

Noticed on a domestic flight in December coffee dripping off the tray table, I think cost cutting has result in a cut back on cleaning between flights.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/coronavirus-precautions-for-volunteer-flight-crew-being-worked-out/ar-BBZuI7W?ocid=spartandhp

Volunteers are very brave souls. I hope that plane is thoroughly decontaminated upon return before being put back into regular service.

I wouldn't fly anywhere at present, not even domestically. Surely I am not the only person that's risk averse and there will be a material decline in travel right throughout AIR's network. That's how I see it anyway...

With all due respect ... but I think your reaction is a bit over the top.

Based on all we know is this nothing worse than one of the not so pleasant flu strains, and there are most years some new strains (without a vaccine for the new strain) around without people stopping to use planes. And yes - people do die from the flu ... depending on how you count (most flu victims do have preconditions) between 56,000 and 500,000 per year.

Compare that to the 170 or so people who died so far from the Wuhan virus (and yes, most of them had as well preexisting conditions and have been old and weak).

Of course - everybody is absolutely in their right to decide whether they want to board a plane or not ... but I don't think there is a need to repeat in various threads posts describing an in my view quite irrational fear. This clearly won't help anybody (well, maybe the shorters).

Expect though that AIR might go down a bit - and the bottom will be as well a function of peoples hyped up fears.
While interested in picking up some cheap AIR shares at the bottom of this cycle, it wouldn't feel right to hype up the fear just to pick up the shares a bit cheaper ...

[Joshuatree]

AIR reducing flights to Shanghai from 7 to 4 weekly.

[dreamcatcher]

With all due respect ... but I think your reaction is a bit over the top.

Based on all we know is this nothing worse than one of the not so pleasant flu strains, and there are most years some new strains (without a vaccine for the new strain) around without people stopping to use planes. And yes - people do die from the flu ... depending on how you count (most flu victims do have preconditions) between 56,000 and 500,000 per year.

Compare that to the 170 or so people who died so far from the Wuhan virus (and yes, most of them had as well preexisting conditions and have been old and weak).

Of course - everybody is absolutely in their right to decide whether they want to board a plane or not ... but I don't think there is a need to repeat in various threads posts describing an in my view quite irrational fear. This clearly won't help anybody (well, maybe the shorters).

Expect though that AIR might go down a bit - and the bottom will be as well a function of peoples hyped up fears.
While interested in picking up some cheap AIR shares at the bottom of this cycle, it wouldn't feel right to hype up the fear just to pick up the shares a bit cheaper ...


Well Said and totally agree just plain scaremongering .............

[Beagle]

Broad spectrum of opinion on how serious this gets BP. I share Raz's concern that cleaning is not as good as it used to be. The Beagle clan don't need to travel for any reason so for us its just a simple choice of delaying any travel plans. Just highlighting that air travel does involve very close confinement with a lot of other passengers where you all share each others recirculated exhaled air. How often do they change the aircraft's recirculation air filters and will they filter out the coronavirus ?

How many people have you talked to who after a long haul flight come down with some new flu ? (I hear this talked about frequently). Spending long hours inside an aircraft confined with potentially hundreds of other passengers is a very unhealthy environment in normal times. These are anything but normal times...just saying...

I am surprised the shares are not < $2.50 and surprised AIR hasn't cancelled direct flights to China already.

[Beagle]

AIR reducing flights to Shanghai from 7 to 4 weekly.

That's just a business decision based on reduced loads. Shame on them for not doing the right thing and protecting all Kiwi's from the risk like MANY other airlines in the world are doing.

[dr_]

American Airline pilots just sued American Airline, they want to stop flying to China :)

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/30/business/american-airlines-pilots-coronavirus/index.html

[Beagle]

Well Said and totally agree just plain scaremongering .............


American Airline pilots just sued American Airline, they want to stop flying to China :)

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/30/business/american-airlines-pilots-coronavirus/index.html

Suppose all those pilots are just needlessly scaremongering too :rolleyes: Greg Foran who officially starts on Monday next week needs to immediately stamp his authority on the business and cease ALL flights to China effective immediately, in the interests of all airnewzealanders and all New Zealanders, in my opinion.

[dreamcatcher]

Maybe AIR should shut down all flights including Australia as flights have plenty of "at risk people" on-board who spent a few days in NZ and lets not worry about kiwis trapped in China or elsewhere that need to get home for work. She will be right.............. I'm OK.

[Beagle]

Now you're just being deliberately obtuse. Its about mitigating clear and present danger to flight crews and passagers. Hopefully Greg Foran has a good handle on this and will act decisively.

[percy]

From what I hear,Greg has been spending a lot of time meeting the troops,who he has impressed already..

[Balance]

American Airline pilots just sued American Airline, they want to stop flying to China :)

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/30/business/american-airlines-pilots-coronavirus/index.html

Where were the pilots doing when the flu pandemic broke out from North America and killed hundreds of thousands of people globally in 2009?

[peat]

Suppose all those pilots are just needlessly scaremongering too :rolleyes: Greg Foran who officially starts on Monday next week needs to immediately stamp his authority on the business and cease ALL flights to China effective immediately, in the interests of all airnewzealanders and all New Zealanders, in my opinion.

ALL flights!
including the rescue operation which is using an AIR plane

Imagine if this bug was to lie dormant in that plane somehow and infect all the passengers next time!
Unlikely you say!? But not impossible either....

[Blue Skies]

ALL flights!
including the rescue operation which is using an AIR plane

Imagine if this bug was to lie dormant in that plane somehow and infect all the passengers next time!
Unlikely you say!? But not impossible either....


Gee, this virus is fast taking on the personality of Calvin in that horror alien sci-fi movie Life on TV the other night.:scared: :)

[Beagle]

ALL flights!
including the rescue operation which is using an AIR plane

Imagine if this bug was to lie dormant in that plane somehow and infect all the passengers next time!
Unlikely you say!? But not impossible either....

Not impossible at all. Talk is the virus can live up to 72 hours on any surface. Hope those minimum wage cleaners are really thorough.

[dreamcatcher]

LIFE GOES ON but AGREE take all precautions "WITHIN REASON"


Even if half the world is destroyed the other half remaining need to survive.

[Raz]

With all due respect ... but I think your reaction is a bit over the top.

Based on all we know is this nothing worse than one of the not so pleasant flu strains, and there are most years some new strains (without a vaccine for the new strain) around without people stopping to use planes. And yes - people do die from the flu ... depending on how you count (most flu victims do have preconditions) between 56,000 and 500,000 per year.

Compare that to the 170 or so people who died so far from the Wuhan virus (and yes, most of them had as well preexisting conditions and have been old and weak).

Of course - everybody is absolutely in their right to decide whether they want to board a plane or not ... but I don't think there is a need to repeat in various threads posts describing an in my view quite irrational fear. This clearly won't help anybody (well, maybe the shorters).

Expect though that AIR might go down a bit - and the bottom will be as well a function of peoples hyped up fears.
While interested in picking up some cheap AIR shares at the bottom of this cycle, it wouldn't feel right to hype up the fear just to pick up the shares a bit cheaper ...

I will pick on one point, you are simply working from incorrect information, as at today, the medical evidence is the virus infection rates and mortality rate is much higher than common flu strains. Naturally there is a lot of uncertainity and they will have more clarity in the coming weeks.

However no one informed on what is current information can conclude what you suggest.

[Balance]

Not impossible at all. Talk is the virus can live up to 72 hours on any surface. Hope those minimum wage cleaners are really thorough.

Like all flu virus, between 3 to 12 hours depending on conditions where the virus settles.

[BlackPeter]

Where were the pilots doing when the flu pandemic broke out from North America and killed hundreds of thousands of people globally in 2009?

At that stage they did spread the deadly American flu to all other countries, as good Americans do. Its just that they don't like to catch Chinese bugs ... is this racist - or just dumb?

[Balance]

At that stage they did spread the deadly American flu to all other countries, as good Americans do. Its just that they don't like to catch Chinese bugs ... is this racist - or just dumb?

As is often said, Americans think their shxt doesn’t stink.

[winner69]

If tourism and air travel badly affected maybe the government will support industries affected.

After all they seem to support others who reckon they are hurting ...like lobster people who can’t send product to China.

[CROESUS U.T.]

I am more interested in why our govt does not subscribe to a service like this that alerted users ; I believe pre Christmas
https://bluedot.global/
Similarly this guy called it days ago - well worth a watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=Nk5P_iRYwTY&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3DQkCeaIR2_6EcS_QgqjpSRf2LVmqscV2P2yxT8 dEJxUxTmJsVHw6kwiU

[bull....]

Delta, American and United suspending all China flights
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-delta-to-suspend-all-china-flights-starting-feb-6.html

[Beagle]

According to CNBC a little while ago 31 airlines have now cancelled or curtailed direct flights to China.

AIR needs to do the right and decent thing for its staff and all New Zealanders and cancel all further direct flights to China with effect immediately. Not fearmongering, just good common sense risk management.

[bull....]

According to CNBC a little while ago 31 airlines have now cancelled or curtailed direct flights to China.

AIR needs to do the right and decent thing for its staff and all New Zealanders and cancel all further direct flights to China with effect immediately. Not fearmongering, just good common sense risk management.

agree , its just inviting trouble. better safe than sorry

Poland’s national airline, LOT Polish Airlines, has suspended flights to China until Feb. 9, a deputy prime minister said on Twitter. (https://twitter.com/MAPGOVPL/status/1223219993556455425) More than a dozen people suspected of having the coronavirus are hospitalized in Poland, and over 500 people are being monitored by health services.
Iran has suspended all flights to China because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Reuters. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported on Friday that all flights from China to the Islamic Republic have also been banned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

[Balance]

Imagine the headline -

New Zealand has 3,175 cases and 19 deaths due to the coronavirus breakout.

Guess what will happen?

[Balance]

Imagine the headline -

New Zealand has 3,175 cases and 19 deaths due to the coronavirus breakout.

Guess what will happen?

Have a guess what will happen?

[dr_]

Have a guess what will happen?

Lots of hugs from PM ;)

[Balance]

Lots of hugs from PM ;)

Haha - good one.

But seriously, guess what will happen?

[Beagle]

Princess Cindy so busy dreaming up how to spend money on roads she's fallen asleep at the wheel.

[bull....]

looks like countries are starting to close there borders to all chinese russia has , US this morning now singapore

just in

Singapore closes borders to all Chinese travellers to stem spread of coronavirus


https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3048441/singapore-closes-borders-all-chinese-travellers-stem


nz might have to soon

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12305050&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+1+ February+2020

[BlackPeter]

According to CNBC a little while ago 31 airlines have now cancelled or curtailed direct flights to China.

AIR needs to do the right and decent thing for its staff and all New Zealanders and cancel all further direct flights to China with effect immediately. Not fearmongering, just good common sense risk management.

Horse bolted - quickly shut the stable door. LOL.

Not understanding, though why anybody infected would be in your view no problem if they come through one of the transit airports? If you really want to compete with bull, than you need to do it properly: Close all ports and airports. Anybody coming from anywhere could be infected.

Ah yes, and don't forget to stop any movement in good old little NZ. We know about some potentially infected people in NZ, and there no doubt will be more to come. Close all airports and ports and make sure nobody is allowed to leave their home for the next 2 weeks.

Ah yes - and be very afraid - lots of hype, fear mongering and idiotic advise on the internet ...

Surprised as well that people who claim to be faithful are spreading this nonsense. Just remind me - what did Jesus do with sick people? Lock them out and let them die? I read a different version of the bible where he helped them, but on reflection this all must have been fake news ...

[Balance]

Imagine the headline -

New Zealand has 3,175 cases and 19 deaths due to the coronavirus breakout.

Guess what will happen?

This actually happened in 2009 with the H1N1 flu pandemic which originated from North America.

Life continued despite the fact that over 60m Americans were infected, carried the H1N1 flu all over the world for over 1 year which subsequently killed several hundred thousands globally.

I think governments are rightly concerned and the ones taking strong steps to contain the spread like Singapore, HK & Mongolia are doing the prudent thing.

There's too much scare-mongering going on however and that's feeding the sense of panic out there amongst those who are not well read - let's not encourage that BS.

[macduffy]

Well, we finally got the answer to Balance's question! I knew you were busting to tell us!!

:ohmy:

[Balance]

Well, we finally got the answer to Balance's question! I knew you were busting to tell us!!

:ohmy:

Compare & Contrast - China imo has moved decisively to contain the spread of the virus compared to the US doing NOTHING remotely as decisive in 2009.

The economic cost of containment for China is going to be huge but the Chinese are prepared to do it.

Why weren't the US prepared to do the same in 2009? Says a lot, doesn't it about which government is actually more responsible.

Yet the media & the scare mongering mob will have you believe that the world is coming to an end and everyone is going to get infected and die - because the Chinese have allowed the virus to run riot!

The truth is actually the exact opposite - the US was the one which allowed the H1N1 flu to go riot and killed hundreds of thousands of people around the world, including NZ.

Some posters here are going to hate the truth - hard potatoes.

[boysy]

Air NZ suspends daily flights to Shanghai in wake of coronavirus

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305195