AIR - Air NZ.

[Rep]

And Customs have suspended Smartgate processing for arrivals until further notice - all incoming passengers will be manually processed.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305377

[bull....]

im surprised air and aia have not fallen a lot more considering the impact on there profits next half yr report

[Sideshow Bob]

im surprised air and aia have not fallen a lot more considering the impact on there profits next half yr report

Surprised also. Today might be the day - AIR down 2.5% and AIA 1.7% already.

[Beagle]

I would think a lot of discretionary air travel will go on the backburner and not just from the Chinese. Frankly, flying long haul is not looking like a very attractive proposition at the moment. A share price < $2.50 in the near term is highly likely in my opinion.

[bull....]

I would think a lot of discretionary air travel will go on the backburner and not just from the Chinese. Frankly, flying long haul is not looking like a very attractive proposition at the moment. A share price < $2.50 in the near term is highly likely in my opinion.

your dead right and heres how your affected

A Chinese man with coronavirus (https://au.news.yahoo.com/tagged/coronavirus) shared a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast with 171 others when he was sick, and four fellow travellers have already fallen ill.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/up-to-200-people-onboard-tigerair-flight-with-coronavirus-passenger-065733445.html

[BlackPeter]

your dead right and heres how your affected

A Chinese man with coronavirus (https://au.news.yahoo.com/tagged/coronavirus) shared a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast with 171 others when he was sick, and four fellow travellers have already fallen ill.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/up-to-200-people-onboard-tigerair-flight-with-coronavirus-passenger-065733445.html

Must be time to shut down all of our ports and airports and particularly make sure that none of the nasty Australians can enter the country unchecked ...

[Beagle]

your dead right and heres how your affected

A Chinese man with coronavirus (https://au.news.yahoo.com/tagged/coronavirus) shared a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast with 171 others when he was sick, and four fellow travellers have already fallen ill.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/up-to-200-people-onboard-tigerair-flight-with-coronavirus-passenger-065733445.html

International travel...in any form including ship cruise is off this dog's menu.
Local travel, I'll not be bolden, I'll take my Holden :)

[winner69]

International travel...in any form including ship cruise is off this dog's menu.
Local travel, I'll not be bolden, I'll take my Holden :)

Careful where you go fill up ....use one of those pay at the pump places and hope like hell there’s no bugs on the nozzle or the key pad.....so take your sanitising wipes with you

[Raz]

your dead right and heres how your affected

A Chinese man with coronavirus (https://au.news.yahoo.com/tagged/coronavirus) shared a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast with 171 others when he was sick, and four fellow travellers have already fallen ill.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/up-to-200-people-onboard-tigerair-flight-with-coronavirus-passenger-065733445.html

I see the Australians have made a travel advisory to their citizens not to travel internationally. Interesting trend, so that will invalidate for certain any travel insurance they hold on this issue. Chances are if you get caught up you will be paying quarantine or health care yourself and if you don't appreciate that you may well appreciate how much of your trip could end up in quarantine in any any jurisdiction you travel, especially in countries that now have random checks at airports.

[iceman]

Sitting at AIA. Interesting to see about 1/3 of people wearing masks and many glasses as well.

[jimbo]

Air NZ suspends daily flights to Shanghai in wake of coronavirus

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305195

But the suspension doesn't begin until the 9th of February, i.e. after service has been completed for the busiest time of the year (lunar new year/Chinese spring festival).

That is also when some airlines have tentatively planned to lift their suspensions that are already in place! Many airlines announced suspensions last week with immediate effect, and planned to initially suspend service for least one week. FinnAir is an exception in that they have taken the same approach as AirNZ, not beginning their suspension until Feb 6th when most of their ticket holders have returned.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox/factbox-airlines-suspend-china-flights-over-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ

[bull....]

I see the Australians have made a travel advisory to their citizens not to travel internationally. Interesting trend, so that will invalidate for certain any travel insurance they hold on this issue. Chances are if you get caught up you will be paying quarantine or health care yourself and if you don't appreciate that you may well appreciate how much of your trip could end up in quarantine in any any jurisdiction you travel, especially in countries that now have random checks at airports.

yes the travel insurance is a biggie considering pandemic is an exclusion to cover , although think if your trip is short term your be back home within the incubation time frame if longer than 2 weeks maybe food for thought

[Timesurfer]

Must be time to shut down all of our ports and airports and particularly make sure that none of the nasty Australians can enter the country unchecked ...

Good point. It is a wonder this Government didn't do a buyback of all sharp Chinese cooking utensils when the virus went deadly.

I wonder if the move to bigger planes like the new 777x might not be such a good idea if the travelling public gets jumpy about diseases. Might be better to fly with fewer and reduce the Russian roulette risk of catching something from a fellow passenger.

[Snow Leopard]

I see the Australians have made a travel advisory to their citizens not to travel internationally....

Except they haven't:
https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/news-and-updates/novel-coronavirus-outbreak

[dobby41]

Good point. It is a wonder this Government didn't do a buyback of all sharp Chinese cooking utensils when the virus went deadly.

I wonder if the move to bigger planes like the new 777x might not be such a good idea if the travelling public gets jumpy about diseases. Might be better to fly with fewer and reduce the Russian roulette risk of catching something from a fellow passenger.

More people die from the flu and have done for years but that hasn't stopped people travelling.
This is being blown out of all proportion.

[Blue Skies]

More people die from the flu and have done for years but that hasn't stopped people travelling.
This is being blown out of all proportion.

I think you may be right.

Bull posted on another thread the infection rate is much higher, about 75,000.
If that's true, 425 people have died so that's only a mortality rate of .56% which is just like a bad flu season.
And according to some reports 80% are over 60 years, and 75% had pre existing conditions.

It's certainly to be taken seriously, but not panic hysteria level serious.
We don't stop people travelling from the Northern hemisphere in their flu season.

[dreamcatcher]

OMG Lets hope this nasty virus does not enter into any rest home villages as could decimate the residents. Would probably affect property prices more then the next interest rate rise. Imagine NZ economy could collapse as we rely on China and AUS to do well but the fear of this virus may completely shut our borders which everyone would understand as the right thing to do eh!! ......... Wonder if the current $1.49 Gallon jet fuel price would assist AIR's profitability compensating in a small way.

Just adding to the scaremongering business as looks like the DOW is moving on with 400 plus increase overnight.

[dobby41]

Just adding to the scaremongering business as looks like the DOW is moving on with 400 plus increase overnight.

Maybe people are starting to think rather than run around - getting some perspective?

[Jaa]

All US carriers have announced they are stopping flights to HK sighting lack of demand. Big and profitable market for Air NZ, much more so than Shanghai.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/unit...us-flights-and

[44wishlists]

All US carriers have announced they are stopping flights to HK sighting lack of demand. Big and profitable market for Air NZ, much more so than Shanghai.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/unit...us-flights-and

But you still have to keep in mind the RR engines issue still not behind AIR. Last week two RR engines meant to ship to Auckland for AIR via Qatar, however, both failed the test, and the retrofitting problem has been delayed. In addition, currently the route is operated by a wet-lease agreement between AIR and CX. And that lease cost is much much more than the previous wet-lease with SQ.

[Beagle]

The first announcement by AIR regarding the RR engine issue mentioned that they hoped to have the issue resolved by about April-May 2018, (issue first arose in late 2017 if I remember correctly).

WOW....talk about a problem dragging on !

[Jaa]

Agreed the engine issues ironically will act as a buffer as will the drop in the oil price and NZD.

Lack of demand is not a good sign though. Any airline is highly vunerable to a drop in demand as they have high fixed costs and slim profit margins. Even currency and fuel costs are hedged to the high side. Air NZ used to be king at right sizing capacity to demand but they have been a bit slow under Luxon. Lots of costs you can't cut quickly too - staff, planes etc

The drop in demand could come from multiple angles.

* No Chinese tourists or students for a while obviously.
* General avoidance of flying and especially of long distance flights.
* Less tourists in Aus and NZ so less trans tasman passengers
* All combining to reduce the load factor on domestic routes

Disclosure: I sold down 2/3 of my stake, first time I've sold since I first bought in at $1.08 in 2008. Been a good trip, 37% return per year according to sharesight.

[Beagle]

Agreed the engine issues ironically will act as a buffer as will the drop in the oil price and NZD.

Lack of demand is not a good sign though. Any airline is highly vunerable to a drop in demand as they have high fixed costs and slim profit margins. Even currency and fuel costs are hedged to the high side. Air NZ used to be king at right sizing capacity to demand but they have been a bit slow under Luxon. Lots of costs you can't cut quickly too - staff, planes etc

The drop in demand could come from multiple angles.

* No Chinese tourists or students for a while obviously.
* General avoidance of flying and especially of long distance flights.
* Less tourists in Aus and NZ so less trans tasman passengers
* All combining to reduce the load factor on domestic routes

Disclosure: I sold down 2/3 of my stake, first time I've sold since I first bought in at $1.08 in 2008. Been a good trip, 37% return per year according to sharesight.

Agreed. What parents are going to risk their children's health and book a long haul vacation for the family right now ?
Most people are risk averse and will simply choose a holiday in the own country.

[winner69]

Drop off in demand could make the special jet setters happy

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/119287915/air-new-zealand-denying-customers-koru-lounge-access-due-to-exceptionally-heavy-demand

[Beagle]

Aircraft where people sit jam packed together like sardines and breathe each others air for hours on end are the "perfect" breeding ground for this new virus. Don't be shocked when AIR finally come out and admit this is having a profound effect on their entire network.

I would think its quite likely that AIR will cancel its Hong Kong flights in the very near future or dramatically scale them back as what's the point of flying with near empty aircraft ?

I think AIR is a "SELL" at the current price in this environment. If I was into shorting stocks, (I'm not), of all the stocks on the NZX I would choose this and THL.

[iceman]

Aircraft where people sit jam packed together like sardines and breathe each others air for hours on end are the "perfect" breeding ground for this new virus. Don't be shocked when AIR finally come out and admit this is having a profound effect on their entire network.

I would think its quite likely that AIR will cancel its Hong Kong flights in the very near future or dramatically scale them back as what's the point of flying with near empty aircraft ?

I think AIR is a "SELL" at the current price in this environment. If I was into shorting stocks, (I'm not), of all the stocks on the NZX I would choose this and THL.

Jetstar has announced discontinuation of both Melbourne and Sydney to Hong Kong routes and Cathay Pacific has asked all if its 27000 staff to take 2-3 weeks of unpaid leave. So I think you may not be too far off with your prediction Beagle.

[dreamcatcher]

AIR took a jump yesterday on ASX and currently up 9.5c today wonder if GS transportation earnings report had anything to do with jump............

[Beagle]

Jetstar has announced discontinuation of both Melbourne and Sydney to Hong Kong routes and Cathay Pacific has asked all if its 27000 staff to take 2-3 weeks of unpaid leave. So I think you may not be too far off with your prediction Beagle.

$2.85 today...you'd want your head looked at paying that. Fabulous shorting opportunity as partial insurance against the rest of one's portfolio.

One more drama for AIR to endure. Massive landing fees paid and they get this... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306688

[BlackPeter]

$2.85 today...you'd want your head looked at paying that. Fabulous shorting opportunity as partial insurance against the rest of one's portfolio.

One more drama for AIR to endure. Massive landing fees paid and they get this... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306688

Good point, but might indicate as well that AIA is woefully overpriced. They might not for ever get away with charging premium landing fees for quite inadequate service and might therefore need to reduce their prices and concurrently increase their investment.

[Jay]

Seems that perhaps AIA have been investing in all the other 'stuff' for a better "customer experience" while all the time their main asset i.e. the runaway, is neglected, won't help any any airline AirNZ included - do AIA compensate them when they close the runway and aircrat have to divert??

Discl: holding neither at present

[Beagle]

The "standard" of the domestic terminal is also a disgrace.

[dobby41]

The "standard" of the domestic terminal is also a disgrace.

That's being rebuilt - but the runway is falling apart it seems.

[dreamcatcher]

"One of New Zealand's biggest travel agencies says coronavirus FEARS have resulted in FEW CANCELLATIONS from clients, although consultants have been busy rebooking new flights for others who had been flying through China." ............ $2.50 if you want to read more NZ Herald

Seems not everyone fears flying

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html Wonder how many will cancel cruises this year ? which will have a roll on effect on the air travel involved.

We were all set to go on our first ever cruise in Sept this year...just as well it was a P&O Oh Buoy $1 initial deposit sale at Christmas. Its looking very unlikely we'll be paying the 25% deposit due next month. https://www.pocruises.com.au/campaigns/oh-buoy-sale
For anyone interested, their marketing, print and T.V. shows a slim young lady encouraging Kiwi's to get into lots of New Zealand natural ice-cream...the only thing is that its clearly implied that this is included in the cruise price but it isn't. The Ice-cream parlor on board is not one of the included dining facilities in the cruise but an optional extra. I'll leave you to judge for yourself if you think this is disingenuous marketing or not. I think its pretty "sharp practice" especially using large imagery that's highly appealing to a hungry dog that likes that ice-cream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5B6BE0qFTA

[dobby41]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html Wonder how many will cancel cruises this year ? which will have a roll on effect on the air travel involved.

We were all set to go on our first ever cruise in Sept this year...just as well it was a P&O Oh Buoy $1 initial deposit sale at Christmas. Its looking very unlikely we'll be paying the 25% deposit due next month. https://www.pocruises.com.au/campaigns/oh-buoy-sale
For anyone interested, their marketing, print and T.V. shows a slim young lady encouraging Kiwi's to get into lots of New Zealand natural ice-cream...the only thing is that its clearly implied that this is included in the cruise price but it isn't. The Ice-cream parlor on board is not one of the included dining facilities in the cruise but an optional extra. I'll leave you to judge for yourself if you think this is disingenuous marketing or not. I think its pretty "sharp practice" especially using large imagery that's highly appealing to a hungry dog that likes that ice-cream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5B6BE0qFTA

Don't you think that this virus will be just a memory by then?
I'll still be going on three trips planned (so far) this year starting in May.
I'll get in the tin can and fly to Melbourne in March - might get an upgrade if everyone decides not to go.

[Beagle]

Easy enough to reschedule a cruise for when it is safe and will probably be at a better price. Not prepared to bet money, (aka pay a sizeable deposit next month) in the hope it will be all over by Sept, although I do hope it is !

[couta1]

Easy enough to reschedule a cruise for when it is safe and will probably be at a better price. Not prepared to bet money, (aka pay a sizeable deposit next month) in the hope it will be all over by Sept, although I do hope it is ! What a blow you will have to go skiing instead.Lol

[RGR367]

Easy enough to reschedule a cruise for when it is safe and will probably be at a better price. Not prepared to bet money, (aka pay a sizeable deposit next month) in the hope it will be all over by Sept, although I do hope it is !

It should be by then otherwise mankind is doomed.

[BlackPeter]

What a blow you will have to go skiing instead.Lol

True, though don't forget that the infection risk in the winter hemisphere (skiing) is probably higher than in the summer hemisphere (cruise ship). I think I'd take the summer, agree however with beagle that he will get probably better prized cruises closer to the time.

Wondering however when the first specials for Queenstown come out ... always wondering whether the place is worth a visit .. and might be actually nice with lesser tourist around?

[couta1]

True, though don't forget that the infection risk in the winter hemisphere (skiing) is probably higher than in the summer hemisphere (cruise ship). I think I'd take the summer, agree however with beagle that he will get probably better prized cruises closer to the time.

Wondering however when the first specials for Queenstown come out ... always wondering whether the place is worth a visit .. and might be actually nice with lesser tourist around? Sept is a great time to visit Q/town, after the peak of the ski season yet still looks like an Alpine resort and before the summer visitors start flocking to the area.

[Raz]

Sept is a great time to visit Q/town, after the peak of the ski season yet still looks like an Alpine resort and before the summer visitors start flocking to the area.

If people have not paid and can reschedule then they may well defer, if they can, still people do have limited opportunities in busy lives...wife wants to change Europe trip to September...worst part of that is that is my time in Queenstown every year, like couta I think it is perfect time to be there. If people have paid and committed they will try to find any reason to feel it is okay to go...

[iceman]

Deleted post and put it on the correct thread

[Beagle]

If people have not paid and can reschedule then they may well defer, if they can, still people do have limited opportunities in busy lives...wife wants to change Europe trip to September...worst part of that is that is my time in Queenstown every year, like couta I think it is perfect time to be there. If people have paid and committed they will try to find any reason to feel it is okay to go...

Sept in Queenstown is very nice. I see no reason however at this stage to book early. Hotel and rental car deals are only going to get cheaper from here...

I continue to be surprised at the resilience of the AIR share price. Calm before the storm ?

[Snow Leopard]

Something positive - I think :confused:

Amazing: Air New Zealand’s Singing Flight Attendant Wins Praise (click me) (https://simpleflying.com/air-nz-singing-flight-attendant/)

[peat]

Thanks for the trade idea Beagle
i got a cheeky little short in @$2.835 Stop just over $3, with target $2.55
let’s see how it goes

[Beagle]

You're welcome. I think your chances of getting stopped out are extremely slim lol
Anecdotally talking with a few mates yesterday, none would choose to get on a long haul flight at present no matter what the destination.
People are risk averse, and worried about the unknown.

[Raz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/119412245/air-new-zealand-chief-executive-greg-foran-asks-frequent-flyers-what-innovations-it-should-focus-on#comments

A good start however they need to hear more than the business class offering is not competitive anymore and given most in this group do not pick up the tab themselves (their organisation is) the value proposition is often not viewed clearly in this group.

[Beagle]

Please tell them to stop wasting money on fancy safety video's filmed in exotic locations, like the money spent on filming in Antarctica which must have been quite considerable and was very insensitive considering what happened there.

[winner69]

I think history will show Luxon wasn’t all that great at Air NZ

Might have achieved record profits early on but that was more luck with fuel prices than good management.....and most of the increased profits fell away and his final year wasn’t that much better than his first year.

I get the impression he just let things drift along

[percy]

I think history will show Luxon wasn’t all that great at Air NZ

Might have achieved record profits early on but that was more luck with fuel prices than good management.....and most of the increased profits fell away and his final year wasn’t that much better than his first year.

I get the impression he just let things drift along

In that case he is just the right person to lead the National party..........lol

[winner69]

In that case he is just the right person to lead the National party..........lol

......agree there percy

There was a piece in the paper on Luxon the other day ....covered a lot of things but one thing missing was his vision for NZ ....didn’t have a vision for AIR either

[winner69]

Cabin service in AIRplanes should be improving ... a young Luxon apparently is now one of them.

[percy]

Cabin service in AIRplanes should be improving ... a young Luxon apparently is now one of them.

Well he can enjoy the upgraded Koru lounges he was responsible for,and I certainly take my hat off to him for getting AIR out of Virgin.
The big profits are the business travelers Luxon went after.

[Beagle]

Well he can enjoy the upgraded Koru lounges he was responsible for,and I certainly take my hat off to him for getting AIR out of Virgin.
The big profits are the business travelers Luxon went after.

Yes he did very well in that regard. Some of his environmental and sustainability mumbo jumbo though :rolleyes:

[percy]

Wonder whether he would work with Winston.?...........................lol.

[Raz]

Well he can enjoy the upgraded Koru lounges he was responsible for,and I certainly take my hat off to him for getting AIR out of Virgin.
The big profits are the business travelers Luxon went after.

I think you will find they had a captive market for this in little old New Zealand already...

[biker]

I think history will show Luxon wasn’t all that great at Air NZ

Might have achieved record profits early on but that was more luck with fuel prices than good management.....and most of the increased profits fell away and his final year wasn’t that much better than his first year.

I get the impression he just let things drift along

I agree. I think he heavily incentivised his executive and management and then looked the other way.
He certainly inherited an airline with a very strong profit base and culture set up by Fyfe then milked it.
Both have deteriorated.
An indication of his Regard for Air NZ was the way he walked away to immediately pursue his own interests. No gradual handover like he enjoyed when appointed and it left the company in limbo for months.
A window on how he will be as a politician. No different from the rest, but having a hard, right wing, conservative agenda, heavily influenced by his Christian ‘faith’ and personal aspirations.
A man to be wary of.

All only in my opinion of course.

[winner69]

I agree. I think he heavily incentivised his executive and management and then looked the other way.
He certainly inherited an airline with a very strong profit base and culture set up by Fyfe then milked it.
Both have deteriorated.
An indication of his Regard for Air NZ was the way he walked away to immediately pursue his own interests. No gradual handover like he enjoyed when appointed and it left the company in limbo for months.
A window on how he will be as a politician. No different from the rest, but having a hard, right wing, conservative agenda, heavily influenced by his Christian ‘faith’ and personal aspirations.
A man to be wary of.

All only in my opinion of course.

he got for staying on when rumours were flying around a couple of years ago that he was going to Fonterra

Chairman Carter was sucked in.

[winner69]

Shareholders rejoice at the rumour AIR call centre going to Phillipines to save money

Customers probably lament the move fearing worse service

[Chinesekiwi]

I agree. I think he heavily incentivised his executive and management and then looked the other way.
He certainly inherited an airline with a very strong profit base and culture set up by Fyfe then milked it.
Both have deteriorated.
An indication of his Regard for Air NZ was the way he walked away to immediately pursue his own interests. No gradual handover like he enjoyed when appointed and it left the company in limbo for months.
A window on how he will be as a politician. No different from the rest, but having a hard, right wing, conservative agenda, heavily influenced by his Christian ‘faith’ and personal aspirations.
A man to be wary of.

All only in my opinion of course.

I agree with you.

Luxon added so very little to Air NZ - and he never hid his self proclaimed 'socially conservative' views from the comapny and he did in fact allow them to blur his decision making. He was solely responsible for the cessation of the popular PINK Flight to Sydney. It's not my cup of tea but it MADE MONEY and garnered a truckload of free press every year.

Luxon just proves that a well spoken white man in suit will suck every schmuk in.

Fyfe did the hard yards and created a real drive forward engaged workforce - all Luxon did was dismantle it and run the business down to deliver maximum shareholder return in the short term all the while delivering progressively lower and lower profits.

Dont overlook that at the same time the board upped the short term incentive plan - largely based on share price numbers the business was having some $50 gutted from it. It was not overly bloated and all that seemed to happen was the same old story. The 10 workers in a department were told they were now 6 and to just deal with it.

Don't forget that under this caring Christians' watch full time low paying jobs like aircraft loaders and airport check in people suddenly became part time full time jobs - still low paid only just now the day was split into 2 with an idle 3 -4 hours in between shifts. It goes on and on.

Luxon was a smooth talking well presented man of little substance in my view (I have met him many times and know his reasonably well), he bolted when Key assured him now was the time to jump into the NATS.

If you are a hard right religious type then this guy is your man. Pity the rest of us.

I have way better feeling for Foran as a leader - early indications bode well for his people skills, time will tell.

[bull....]

Shareholders rejoice at the rumour AIR call centre going to Phillipines to save money

Customers probably lament the move fearing worse service

must be why the shares were up and the fact domestic fares rising will insulate them from any downturn in international and those dividend hunters who dont worry about anything external only care that the div yield is so high

[Beagle]

I agree with you.

Luxon added so very little to Air NZ - and he never hid his self proclaimed 'socially conservative' views from the comapny and he did in fact allow them to blur his decision making. He was solely responsible for the cessation of the popular PINK Flight to Sydney. It's not my cup of tea but it MADE MONEY and garnered a truckload of free press every year.

Luxon just proves that a well spoken white man in suit will suck every schmuk in.

Fyfe did the hard yards and created a real drive forward engaged workforce - all Luxon did was dismantle it and run the business down to deliver maximum shareholder return in the short term all the while delivering progressively lower and lower profits.

Dont overlook that at the same time the board upped the short term incentive plan - largely based on share price numbers the business was having some $50 gutted from it. It was not overly bloated and all that seemed to happen was the same old story. The 10 workers in a department were told they were now 6 and to just deal with it.

Don't forget that under this caring Christians' watch full time low paying jobs like aircraft loaders and airport check in people suddenly became part time full time jobs - still low paid only just now the day was split into 2 with an idle 3 -4 hours in between shifts. It goes on and on.

Luxon was a smooth talking well presented man of little substance in my view (I have met him many times and know his reasonably well), he bolted when Key assured him now was the time to jump into the NATS.

If you are a hard right religious type then this guy is your man. Pity the rest of us.

I have way better feeling for Foran as a leader - early indications bode well for his people skills, time will tell.

Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone. Greg Foran with his background is going to be ruthless in cutting costs and will need to be. I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights.

Couple of reports out overnight I have seen suggest air travel within the Asia Pacific region previously forecast to grow at 4.5% in 2020 could contract by as much as 8% this year and that's just based on known information about the virus at this time.

If this becomes a worldwide pandemic, look out, demand for air travel will fall off the face of a cliff like nothing anyone has ever seen before. You will see what cost cutting really feels like then...for example Cathay Pacific have asked many of their workers to take unpaid leave until June, (which could easily be restated to a later month). Good luck to those that don't have a decent nest egg for a rainy day.

Foran will do whatever needs to be done to ensure the survival of the airline and you'll probably look back and think Chris Luxon was a kind caring person after all...that's my prediction. AIR is a clear SELL in my view with known risks. Fair value is where the shares are now, (before there was any virus risk at all) and nothing whatsoever has come off to account for known virus risks...I leave it to others to judge whether that's logical or not.

[winner69]

Sydney Customs hall quiet as

Pretty revealing image for those who know what Sydney is like.

https://twitter.com/chaudave/status/1227816323704451072?s=21

[Biscuit]

... I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights....



From a business perspective, can be a profitable segment of the market to cultivate. From a social perspective, it is positive to support a segment of society that has suffered discrimination.

[winner69]

Thanks for the trade idea Beagle
i got a cheeky little short in @$2.835 Stop just over $3, with target $2.55
let’s see how it goes

I reckon you’ll be stopped out in next week or so

[macduffy]

It's called "positive discrimination", biscuit. Use with discretion!

:mellow:

[peat]

I reckon you’ll be stopped out in next week or so


yes it hasn't dropped significantly at any point yet. but rises have been quashed as well.

[Lorne Ranger]

It's called "positive discrimination", biscuit. Use with discretion!

:mellow:

As opposed to the "negative discrimination" this group has encountered for the past couple of thousand years at least. Seems reasonable to me. There's a fair way to go yet perhaps to make amends for that - a pink flight would not have hurt anyone.

[Beagle]

For me Air NZ remains a hold.

Coronavirus won’t be here long term. Acknowledge will impact short term results.
High barriers to entry and strong market share in profitable domestic travel.
Strong brand underpinned by Airpoints loyalty programme and Koru lounges (and average at best competition domestically).
International competitors feed Air NZ profitable domestic network.
Expect long term trend of low single digit revenue growth to resume post Coronavirus.
Low P/E and high dividend yield which looks sustainable long term.
New CEO has good credentials.
Will continue to hold long term.

Good luck mate. This news out yesterday (one of the first bits of news out of the aviation industry that endeavours to quantify the impact of this virus), gives an interesting insight into how difficult this storm might be to navigate. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-airlines-says-losing-10-054307063.html

I am sure AIR will update shareholders how their forward bookings are looking with their half year result due later this month and I expect that they will clearly articulate a serious decline in people's forward intentions arounds bookings. I expect a downgrade to 2020 guidance later this month with the half year result and at least one more, probably two more downgrades before June 2020. Shareholders might also like to brace for a dividend cut as it would appear to be prudent to conserve cash at this time.

I wouldn't presently even pay $2.50 per share. I don't want to be a prophet of doom because I like the company but the fact is AIR is directly in the path of this approaching storm and there's nowhere to hide. Depending on the severity of its effects it could get extremely ugly.

[macduffy]

Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.

[BlackPeter]

Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.

Just for comparison: China accounts for roughly 10% of all New Zealand tourists. Sure, lesser exposure than Vietnam, but still quite material.

[Beagle]

Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.

Very sobering at this very early stage and it isn't just Chinese by any means that can't or don't want to be travelling. Discretionary long haul travel is on indefinite hold for everyone I personally know. There are those that have to travel long haul regularly for work though, like Iceman and I hope he's okay.

[Benny1]

Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone. Greg Foran with his background is going to be ruthless in cutting costs and will need to be. I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights.

Couple of reports out overnight I have seen suggest air travel within the Asia Pacific region previously forecast to grow at 4.5% in 2020 could contract by as much as 8% this year and that's just based on known information about the virus at this time.

If this becomes a worldwide pandemic, look out, demand for air travel will fall off the face of a cliff like nothing anyone has ever seen before. You will see what cost cutting really feels like then...for example Cathay Pacific have asked many of their workers to take unpaid leave until June, (which could easily be restated to a later month). Good luck to those that don't have a decent nest egg for a rainy day.

Foran will do whatever needs to be done to ensure the survival of the airline and you'll probably look back and think Chris Luxon was a kind caring person after all...that's my prediction. AIR is a clear SELL in my view with known risks. Fair value is where the shares are now, (before there was any virus risk at all) and nothing whatsoever has come off to account for known virus risks...I leave it to others to judge whether that's logical or not.

Been there seen it all before... You tend to when you have been in this industry as long as alot of us have!
We were within a few hours of closing the door for good with the Ansett disaster.. Not knowing if we should take our personal equipment home with us each night in case the gates were locked the next day..you tend to grow to be quite resilient in this industry.
Would I buy AIR... Nope... Carona Virus, the787's drama and the like is enough to convince me to look elsewhere..can't quite fathom why the share price is still where it is. Good for holders though and I wish you all the best..
As for Luxon everyone has their own opinions and always will...
I'll keep mine to myself...
And Beagle I can assure you that there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community.

[Biscuit]

... there has been plenty of pandering to certain groups of the employee community...

Interesting word "pander" :

pander


1.

v (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s87868)
yield (to); give satisfaction to




2.

v (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s87861)n (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s56488)
arrange for sexual partners for others



Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?

[Beagle]

They're always going to need highly skilled people like you that fix things Benny so you'll be okay.
Best wishes.

[Benny1]

Interesting word "pander" :

pander


1.

v (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s87868)
yield (to); give satisfaction to




2.

v (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s87861)n (https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/pander#s56488)
arrange for sexual partners for others



Yeeks! just what has been going on at AIR?

Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha

[Biscuit]

Well you got to add abit of spice to work day don't you!!! Haha

lol, sounds like a great place to work! Hope that up-tight Luxton dude didn't spoil it!

[iceman]

Good luck mate. This news out yesterday (one of the first bits of news out of the aviation industry that endeavours to quantify the impact of this virus), gives an interesting insight into how difficult this storm might be to navigate. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-airlines-says-losing-10-054307063.html

I am sure AIR will update shareholders how their forward bookings are looking with their half year result due later this month and I expect that they will clearly articulate a serious decline in people's forward intentions arounds bookings. I expect a downgrade to 2020 guidance later this month with the half year result and at least one more, probably two more downgrades before June 2020. Shareholders might also like to brace for a dividend cut as it would appear to be prudent to conserve cash at this time.

I wouldn't presently even pay $2.50 per share. I don't want to be a prophet of doom because I like the company but the fact is AIR is directly in the path of this approaching storm and there's nowhere to hide. Depending on the severity of its effects it could get extremely ugly.

Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
Needless to say my wife will go through LA !

[BWH]

Just before it all kicked off, we bought tickets for a holiday to the UK. To via LA and back via HK. Will be watching this one with interest.

[BlackPeter]

Just a little snippet. My wife yesterday had to change dates on a flight with AIR to London via LA at the beginning of March. The call centre person told us the cehapest option would be to go through HK as "we have had hundreds of cancellations on that route".
Needless to say my wife will go through LA !

Interesting information, though probably predictable.

From personal experience - it is quite easy to catch a flu or bad cold on these long distance flights ... probably every second time I go to Europe I end up with one of these - caught in flight on one of these legs. So far however I survived them all :);

But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff. North American airports are inefficient, always full with arrogant security staff, bull dogs and a bunch of bureaucrats who clearly enjoy to exercise the nearly unlimited power they have over incoming passengers. Not sure whether queuing up in front of US immigration with lots of other people (some of them might be sick) for often one to two hours really reduces the bug spread.

Anyway - all the best and safe travels to your wife ...

We plan to go August / September and I am sure I won't take the route through the US ..

[Crypto Crude]

Interesting

But anyway - I would think that in these hyped up days the risk to catch a bug on the plane might be lower than normal ... everybody will be alert and highly unlikely that they allow particularly in SE Asia anybody with symptoms (no matter which flu or cold) close to the airport ...

Personally - I would have taken the HK connection - it is nicer (and less risk to catch whatever bug) if you
fly in less filled planes and go through well organised airports with friendly staff...

With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
Just a few days ago 21 studies confirmed that this virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces... you touch it and dont wash your hands before you rub your face and eyes and you have it...
Planes are never cleaned efficiently.. maybe this might change with coronavirus i doubt it... the aircon is the worst... the ducts never get cleaned ever id think... which is a breeding ground for moulds and fungus...those little knobs you turn to direct air ive heard are bad bad bad.... but i cant find much info on it and cant remember how i heard about it....
You dont even have to be within 3 feet to catch the virus... from how contageous the virus is id say that if one person on the entire flight has it then by the end every person has it...
I would not be flying anywhere and at least seeing how the weeks unfold... I am to believe the numbers infected are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...
:cool:
.^sc

[ynot]

The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.

[Beagle]

The resilience of some of the corona linked companies like AIR I find surprising. This would have to be $2.00 come March.

I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.

[iceman]

With the coronavirus around flying on airplanes is a huge no no...
ed are significantly higher than reported... and some studies have predicted that even as early as late this month that hundreds of millions of people could become infected...
:cool:
.^sc

Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !

[winner69]

A lot of people don't understand that airlines are a very low margin business wither very high fixed overheads and very high staff costs, (plus in AIR's case a vast number of troughers getting paid far too much). If average load factors drop from the current 83-84% down even to 70% it is likely in my opinion that AIR will be losing money.

If the effects are sustained beyond say 6-8 months there's going to have to be some restructuring in AIR. My assessment is fair value for AIR BEFORE this virus risk was $2.75.
If they start losing money I would think its quite likely we'll see the shares retrench down towards NTA of $1.69.

I almost feel sorry for Greg Foran. With no airline experience he couldn't have chosen a more challenging time to take over the reigns at AIR. Talk about a baptism of fire :eek2:

I agree with Balance, the tourism sector is a very good one to avoid for the foreseeable future. THL also a SELL in my opinion.

Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base

[Biscuit]

Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !

Not the case for most though. We have postponed contracts overseas so the team don't get caught up in this. A lot of business travel will be on hold until this is understood. Haven't held AIR for a while, the wind went out of its sails long ago.

[Beagle]

Beagle I’d say a reduced capacity to 75% would be pretty disasterous .

That’s about 2 million less passengers ...on a mainly fixed cost base

You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.

[Beagle]

Maybe SC but many people, myself included, simply can not stop traveling unless we quit our jobs !

If this thing really "blows up" maybe it is time for a change ?

[bull....]

I've been thinking the same and see this under $2 soon.

asian cruise ship industry virtually halted , so asian flying will be similar so what is the % of air asian business worth and your have idea of immediate impact to bottom line

[winner69]

You're probably dead right. Passenger revenue last year was $4,960m. Very quick look would suggest an 8% reduction in load factor would suck about $400m off the top line. Then there's the retrenchment of various routes, Hong Kong and Singapore next ?. The effect on revenue would also be serious in regard to route suspensions.
Then there's the effect on yield, super special offers to keep people flying ? and effect on cargo volumes and pricing.
One would hope that Greg Foran would be quick and nimble enough to manage his way through this but a complete newbie to the airline industry at a time when there could be unprecedented disruption is not a good coincidence.

I think the potential for this to be a VERY VERY serious matter for AIR to cope with is crystal clear.

Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help

[winner69]

And wine merchants will be suffering as well .....AIR proudly touted they poured 963,202 bottles of wine last year.

Wowsers ...wine and flying don’t mix ...should stop it.

[Beagle]

Suppose they will keep most of the $1.4 billion prepaid fares whether punters fly or not. That could help

It will for a few months. What could be quite interesting when AIR report later this month is if there's any caution in the commentary regarding forward bookings ? This is arguably the best business in N.Z. to get a feel for whether people's intentions are changing as $1,372m in forward bookings as at 30 June 2019 indicates more than 3 months forward travel.

We probably won't see any change in prepaid travel as at 31 December 2019 with the numbers coming out shortly but it will be interesting to see where this number stands as at 30 June 2020 ! I am sure they will have an inkling of how this number might be changing when they report their half year results later this month...and if people's intention to defer discretionary travel snowballs then look out !

Hope SUM have their annual meeting in Auckland this April. Its a long drive to Wellington and back.

[Snow Leopard]

Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone.....

Everybody I know in the airline industry did not think much of him at all (I am being polite here).

Results out a week Thursday.
The commentary around future booking will be the thing that we are all interested in, mainly whether they are seen as realistic.

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed - flightcentre ads popping up in my browser - they started to discount flights.

Just a couple of hundred dollars so far, but I suppose this is just the beginning :):

[Beagle]

Everybody I know in the airline industry did not think much of him at all (I am being polite here).

Results out a week Thursday.
The commentary around future booking will be the thing that we are all interested in, mainly whether they are seen as realistic.

Yes that will be interesting. I had a couple of good chats with him after annual meetings and thought he communicated very well. During the annual meetings he articulated his strategy very well. Forward booking info is going to be very interesting. Perhaps more to the point, of those that have booked already, what percentage will actually fly ?

[peat]

airlines are a very low margin business with very high fixed overheads and very high staff costs, (plus in AIR's case a vast number of troughers getting paid far too much).

THIS.
Any dropoff in revenue just screws the P+L. I've seen it myself a long time ago when I used to produce the business unit P+L's.

DISCLAIMER (Short position)

[Preston]

Everybody I know in the airline industry did not think much of him at all (I am being polite here).

Results out a week Thursday.
The commentary around future booking will be the thing that we are all interested in, mainly whether they are seen as realistic.

Yeah because they were probably working for him, but he's working for shareholders. In the time he was there, share price more than doubles and they continue to get dividends. I would say that investors would have been happy with that.

The thing is in airlines, a good CEO is either good for shareholders or employees, I don't think they can be both.

[Beagle]

THIS.
Any dropoff in revenue just screws the P+L. I've seen it myself a long time ago when I used to produce the business unit P+L's.

DISCLAIMER (Short position)

AIR made money throughout the GFC which shows it is very resilient...but people were seriously concerned about their finances then...being seriously concerned about the prospect of death is something entirely different and I would say potentially far more serious. If they start flying with 8% lower load factors at an average of 2-3% lower yields that $400-500m less revenue effect as you quite rightly suggest, comes straight off their bottom line. They're smarter than that though and will reduce frequency of service to try and keep load factors profitable but there's only so much you can do when demand falls significantly before a company becomes like a sick cat chasing its own tail down in a descending tailspin.

On the weekend I heard Hello travel advertising return fares to Australia for $299 inclusive of taxes, (of which they are very steep to exit Australia) I would think close to half that fare is taxes and $299 is not something I can recall for a very long time which gives an interesting insight into where airfares might be headed. i.e. Its not just load factors that could come under enormous pressure, yields could too.

Disc: No position but wish I could find an easy way to short this.

[Preston]

Pretty interesting chart here too. Had to break it down to the 4 hour to get a good fit but it looks like a decline to 2.70 is happening right now and this will be the area to watch. A close below 2.70 has 2.6 and then 2.5 in sight. Pretty solid support at 2.50 so don't think its a straight shot, but 2.40 could be on.

11028

[James108]

About to book very expensive flights to Nelson through air NZ, not put off by Coronavirus at all. Wouldn’t fly to Asia though.

[Sideshow Bob]

About to book very expensive flights to Nelson through air NZ, not put off by Coronavirus at all. Wouldn’t fly to Asia though.

Long haul will a hit, but still keep milking those domestic routes as much as they can...….

[Maverick]

I'm currently sitting on an AirNZ flight from S Korea to Auckland. It looks about 75% full. I wouldn't know wether that is normal or not.

Also I've been watching the very long movie "Time to destination".
it is very uninteresting ........I do not recommend it.

[dreamcatcher]

I'm currently sitting on an AirNZ flight from S Korea to Auckland. It looks about 75% full. I wouldn't know wether that is normal or not.

Also I've been watching the very long movie "Time to destination".
it is very uninteresting ........I do not recommend it.

Safe journey, my doctor recommended to take 1 Aspirin tab the day before and 2 days after arriving and wear compression knee socks during flight.

Doctors recommendation always important.

[theace]

Lightened the load a little bit. Can't help but think that this will affect AIR. SA reducing services ... https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/media-centre/AdjustmentstoSingaporeAirlinesandSilkAirflightcapa city.pdf

Had plans for a personal trip to Asia mid this year, have shelved it for now ... expect many to be doing the same. Even at work, most reducing trans-tasman travel if they can avoid it.

[winner69]

Lightened the load a little bit. Can't help but think that this will affect AIR. SA reducing services ... https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/media-centre/AdjustmentstoSingaporeAirlinesandSilkAirflightcapa city.pdf

Had plans for a personal trip to Asia mid this year, have shelved it for now ... expect many to be doing the same. Even at work, most reducing trans-tasman travel if they can avoid it.

That’s one hell of lot of flights eh

Some AIR code share ones as well,

[Beagle]

Just the beginning of widespread flight cancellations worldwide by almost all airlines, in my opinion.
Of course AIR's unionised workers will still be expecting their usual last year + 2-3% annual increase.

[Beagle]

Just out - AIR cuts Hong Kong services https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12309619

[Chinesekiwi]

Just the beginning of widespread flight cancellations worldwide by almost all airlines, in my opinion.
Of course AIR's unionised workers will still be expecting their usual last year + 2-3% annual increase.


Beagle - you really do enjoy kicking unions and unionised workers yet I am pretty sure you would have no objection to Employer Unions -also known more commonly as the likes of Federated Farmers, Chambers of Commerce, Employers and Manufacturers Association etc etc etc.

I am not anti these groups at all - but to call a spade a spade they are essentially or in part lobby groups - employer or industry unions if you like.

They act as a union would - lobby for the best outcomes of their members. Yet there is no outcry when in the past they have lobbied for tariffs on imports to protect their profits - oops I meant industry - all the while happy for Joe public to pay the inflated prices they charged.

So why is it that workers union bad employer union good?

Anyway for what it is worth Beagle in tough times in years and decades gone by Air NZ worker unions have FORGONE wages rises for the sake of all in the company -on more than one occasion. How about laying off the workers who keep Air NZ going eh? Maybe your wrath can be turned on the HQ fat cats starting with the abruptly departed smooth talking Low Wage Luxon.

[bull....]

corporate travel announcement provides a good guidance on impact of virus to date. feb bookings down 50% :scared:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200219/pdf/44f6qp8m38mldy.pdf

[Beagle]

Thanks. I am expecting AIR to downgrade (the first of several downgrades) FY20 guidance when they report on 27 February.
I assume anyone still on board this one has a very strong stomach and their seat belt firmly tightened because they are in for some extreme turbulence directly ahead.

[Sideshow Bob]

corporate travel announcement provides a good guidance on impact of virus to date. feb bookings down 50% :scared:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200219/pdf/44f6qp8m38mldy.pdf

Our (small) company would normally have various trips organised to HK/China at this time of year to see customers etc, and 90% of these are with AIR - so $10-15k we are not spending. Not going anywhere near the place currently.....

[bull....]

air nz asia travel bookings i imagine will be down already. probably significantly. so work out the % of this part to there profits and theres the immediate hit to the bottom line. So agree with beagle downgrade coming.

[dreamcatcher]

Hopefully lifting travel ban by China not too far away.

Appears there is a break through with China reporting declining new cases of NOVID-19 on 17th Feb down from 2048 on Feb 16th and recoveries picking up as well with 1708 reported on 17th Feb up from previous day of 1425 recoveries. Interesting to note 46,524 cases as reported as 'MILD CONDITION' remembering 80% of deaths to date are over 60's in poor health so if one is to worry constantly scaremongering and down-ramping should reconsider Retirement stock which would also be very high risk as everyone there are over 60yrs with RYM having a nose bleed today down 48 cents.

Healthy friends returned from China their 14 day curfew lifts in 4 days.

[Preston]

Next few days could be interesting. $2.50 is the base of the pattern here
11040

[Cadalac123]

Corporate travel seems quite affected wondering if SKO will downgrade guidance like WEB

[dreamcatcher]

Could AIR handle 16,000 - 100,000 Chinese Uni students traveling immediately after Travel Ban lifted maybe to NZ

Appears no shortage of willing Chinese travelers.

"The Australian this morning reports on a survey of more than
16,000 Chinese students stranded in China by the travel ban
which found nearly a third of them (32 per cent) would enrol in
another country if they were prevented from studying in Australia
in the first semester of this year. The paper notes that if all of the
roughly 100,000 Chinese students who are expected to study in
Australian universities this year have to postpone their study in
the first semester, universities face losing up to $2bn."

[bull....]

qantas says virus will impact earnings 100 - 150 million and will be updated in april

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200220/pdf/44f85l4gl2y21j.pdf

[blackcap]

qantas says virus will impact earnings 100 - 150 million and will be updated in april

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200220/pdf/44f85l4gl2y21j.pdf

Doesn't AIR pretty much run international flights at break even and they make all their profits from their domestic operation anyway? I am pretty sure AIR will be in good stead to survive this coronavirus thing. The impact and disruption will be offset by lower fuel costs.

[bull....]

Doesn't AIR pretty much run international flights at break even and they make all their profits from their domestic operation anyway? I am pretty sure AIR will be in good stead to survive this coronavirus thing. The impact and disruption will be offset by lower fuel costs.

qantas impact was taking account of lower fuel costs in there impact calculation. air will be impacted no doubt. qantas also said demand reduction was spreading to the whole of asia. obviously the outlook and impact when affect accounts going forward the longer the virus stays the bigger the impact will get over time.

[winner69]

Doesn't AIR pretty much run international flights at break even and they make all their profits from their domestic operation anyway? I am pretty sure AIR will be in good stead to survive this coronavirus thing. The impact and disruption will be offset by lower fuel costs.

The $150m impact Qantas mention is after for adjusting for lower fuel costs etc.

Even if they are currently break even on international the impact of virus means they’ll be losing money

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't AIR pretty much run international flights at break even and they make all their profits from their domestic operation anyway? I am pretty sure AIR will be in good stead to survive this coronavirus thing. The impact and disruption will be offset by lower fuel costs.

Question is how much the domestic operations are impacted. Less international flights mean as well less connecting domestic flights, it means less tourists who might otherwise move domestically up and down the country - and I suspect even beagle (who referred to the Holden) is not alone in avoiding any flights.

We choose to stop 10% of our international tourists at the border - and the Chinese did a lot of flying ....

[blackcap]

Question is how much the domestic operations are impacted. Less international flights mean as well less connecting domestic flights, it means less tourists who might otherwise move domestically up and down the country - and I suspect even beagle (who referred to the Holden) is not alone in avoiding any flights.

We choose to stop 10% of our international tourists at the border - and the Chinese did a lot of flying ....

Very well put. Yes I forgot about the tourists that may fly locally. I purchased a return trip to Auckland from Wellington for next Thursday. Cost me $568 so I am sure AIR are still doing very well. Yes less flights will mean more disruptions. But when valuing companies and using a 10 year DCF model, an aberration of half a year is not really that material. So AIR may decline in the short term but I suspect that the market has already priced in some future disturbance.

[bull....]

Very well put. Yes I forgot about the tourists that may fly locally. I purchased a return trip to Auckland from Wellington for next Thursday. Cost me $568 so I am sure AIR are still doing very well. Yes less flights will mean more disruptions. But when valuing companies and using a 10 year DCF model, an aberration of half a year is not really that material. So AIR may decline in the short term but I suspect that the market has already priced in some future disturbance.

as long as the virus doesnt become a pandemic and more wide spread

[Beagle]

Its just beginning. QAN's outlook was on the assumption of just a 3.8% capacity reduction.

[blackcap]

Its just beginning. QAN's outlook was on the assumption of just a 3.8% capacity reduction.

So it's fair to assume you are short Air at these prices?

[Beagle]

So it's fair to assume you are short Air at these prices?

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

[percy]

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

[percy]

I would like to be short as this is a stand out candidate in my opinion. I haven't shorted up until this point.

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

[Beagle]

CMO may be more profitable.?....lol.

lol - Yeah, there's a few companies I wouldn't mind shorting including that one. I'm looking for the right service provider and platform at present.

[dreamcatcher]

18th Feb - CHINA URGES NZ TO LIFT TRAVEL BAN Chinese student bags packed ready to go.............

According to Wu, the number of confirmed cases has been dropping for a consecutive 13 days outside Hubei province and the number of recovered patients has increased rapidly. More than 10,000 patients have been cured and discharged from hospital, she said.

New Zealand, however, followed countries such as the US, Australia and Japan in restricting entry by foreign nationals arriving from mainland China for 14 days. Over the weekend, Health Minister David Clark extended the ban for a further eight days and said that would be reviewed every 48 hours.

Wu said the bans have already had an impact on bilateral cooperation, with 40 per cent of Chinese students who study in New Zealand now stuck in China.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12309559

[Maverick]

lol - Yeah, there's a few companies I wouldn't mind shorting including that one. I'm looking for the right service provider and platform at present.

Ive read it here that CMC markets have been suggested for "shorting". I wouldn't go near them with a barge pole, if it's not standard offering of theirs or with any meaningful amount of moola.

A few weeks ago I refired up my account with them (dormant from yonks ago when I dabbled in a bit of currency "gambling" - which is what it is.)with the view of leveraging to buy OCA .

Well ... long story short, they don't offer OCA but told me they would ,on 2 occasions and confirmed with an email, as long as it was over the phone. So I pop in 2k to trial the procedure.
They buy me OCA at $1.23 as agreed(that was the right price at the time), I find out the next day they bought me OCA in Aussy @ $1.23, not NZ at $1.23 , So I'm down 5%.
I phone them and they said they would reverse the trade, which they promptly did to their credit.

But this is where it got wierd, they then called me to say they don't , and won't, do OCA (after saying twice they would).
I then get an email saying they will close my account fully, as I am unsuitable? Say what???. In quite a harsh email I have been unceremoniously termited despite ALL of our conversations , to their poor English speaking call Center's, being very pleasant.

These guys clearly demonstrated through numerous conflicting story's they don't know what the heck they are up to, outside of standard procedure.
There is no way I would trust them with any substantial money, even for there standard offerings.

I have no doubt they willl refund the 2k in full but will be more than pleased to have my account shutdown by them.

maybe they are still pi**ed with me because I walked away with a currency profit.

[stoploss]

Ive read it here that CMC markets have been suggested for "shorting". I wouldn't go near them with a barge pole, if it's not standard offering of theirs or with any meaningful amount of moola.

A few weeks ago I refired up my account with them (dormant from yonks ago when I dabbled in a bit of currency "gambling" - which is what it is.)with the view of leveraging to buy OCA .

Well ... long story short, they don't offer OCA but told me they would ,on 2 occasions and confirmed with an email, as long as it was over the phone. So I pop in 2k to trial the procedure.
They buy me OCA at $1.23 as agreed(that was the right price at the time), I find out the next day they bought me OCA in Aussy @ $1.23, not NZ at $1.23 , So I'm down 5%.
I phone them and they said they would reverse the trade, which they promptly did to their credit.

But this is where it got wierd, they then called me to say they don't , and won't, do OCA (after saying twice they would).
I then get an email saying they will close my account fully, as I am unsuitable? Say what???. In quite a harsh email I have been unceremoniously termited despite ALL of our conversations , to their poor English speaking call Center's, being very pleasant.

These guys clearly demonstrated through numerous conflicting story's they don't know what the heck they are up to, outside of standard procedure.
There is no way I would trust them with any substantial money, even for there standard offerings.

I have no doubt they willl refund the 2k in full but will be more than pleased to have my account shutdown by them.

Easier if you do the trade yourself in their app , then you will know you are dealing the right code. Never had a problem with share index's, Gold , Shares, or currencies.
It's a pretty simple platform and instant execution unlike dealing NZ shares .....

[bull....]

qantas rising stronly in aus even after there outlook

[peat]

Easier if you do the trade yourself in their app , then you will know you are dealing the right code. Never had a problem with share index's, Gold , Shares, or currencies.
It's a pretty simple platform and instant execution unlike dealing NZ shares .....

it would appear CMC have poor customer service but I've never had any problems, and I wouldn't keep large amounts in their account, is not really necessary with leverage.

And yeh instant execution is actually better than DB or Craigs, you pull the trigger yourself. But hey they're a bucket shop effectively so I take care.

[Beagle]

Ive read it here that CMC markets have been suggested for "shorting". I wouldn't go near them with a barge pole, if it's not standard offering of theirs or with any meaningful amount of moola.

A few weeks ago I refired up my account with them (dormant from yonks ago when I dabbled in a bit of currency "gambling" - which is what it is.)with the view of leveraging to buy OCA .

Well ... long story short, they don't offer OCA but told me they would ,on 2 occasions and confirmed with an email, as long as it was over the phone. So I pop in 2k to trial the procedure.
They buy me OCA at $1.23 as agreed(that was the right price at the time), I find out the next day they bought me OCA in Aussy @ $1.23, not NZ at $1.23 , So I'm down 5%.
I phone them and they said they would reverse the trade, which they promptly did to their credit.

But this is where it got wierd, they then called me to say they don't , and won't, do OCA (after saying twice they would).
I then get an email saying they will close my account fully, as I am unsuitable? Say what???. In quite a harsh email I have been unceremoniously termited despite ALL of our conversations , to their poor English speaking call Center's, being very pleasant.

These guys clearly demonstrated through numerous conflicting story's they don't know what the heck they are up to, outside of standard procedure.
There is no way I would trust them with any substantial money, even for there standard offerings.

I have no doubt they willl refund the 2k in full but will be more than pleased to have my account shutdown by them.

maybe they are still pi**ed with me because I walked away with a currency profit.

Interesting post Mav. You have struck me as a perfectly reasonable, level headed, polite and intelligent guy both times we have met so for it to come to this with CMC markets is quite concerning. For what its worth I went to a lot of trouble to complete their online application last week and at the end of quite an exhausting and thorough process, I pressed send and got a message there is an error in your application. It did not highlight where in the many pages the error was. WTF ? They have all my contact details for 4 working days now but have not contacted me to finalize the process. I've decided I am not going to chase them.

[Timesurfer]

Interesting. I used CMC for some 4x trading. Lost two small parcels mostly from not having enough to cover sudden spikes and they cash you out when your reseves hit flat line. So I decided that Maverick's gambling wasn't for me either (even though it was fun while it lasted).
Didn't try trading stocks with them because their offering was pretty limited.

[winner69]

Here’s a good report on how green airlines are

https://www.oag.com/how-green-is-your-airline?submissionGuid=964d6526-b5cd-4c34-8fc7-c94cd3379600

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12310168&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+21+F ebruary+2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

[winner69]

Air NZ have slashed CHC-BNE on Grabaseat offering $99 flights CHC to BNE. Tax etc alone on the route is $70.75

Not much left for AIR

[Beagle]

Air NZ have slashed CHC-BNE on Grabaseat offering $99 flights CHC to BNE. Tax etc alone on the route is $70.75

Not much left for AIR

Probably another $10 per passenger in landing fees and more for airways fees...basically flying for nothing. I also saw $249 return to Sydney and last time I looked years ago fees out of Sydney were over $90, probably well over $100 now.

[Raz]

Probably another $10 per passenger in landing fees and more for airways fees...basically flying for nothing. I also saw $249 return to Sydney and last time I looked years ago fees out of Sydney were over $90, probably well over $100 now.

Yes a few good discounts today including a number of deals via email, major discounts if you commit to non refundable flights and if you commit to a number of flights for the year from my usual carriers. Their emails reflect my previous flying profile so looking at their regular flyers. Think they are alarmed that people like me have held off on all travel. Still nothing special yet from holden:)

[fish]

Yes a few good discounts today including a number of deals via email, major discounts if you commit to non refundable flights and if you commit to a number of flights for the year from my usual carriers. Their emails reflect my previous flying profile so looking at their regular flyers. Think they are alarmed that people like me have held off on all travel. Still nothing special yet from holden:)

Sold my shares and not booking our round the world trip until we know what is happening with corona virus.Its not the virus I fear but the delays and possible quarantine overseas .I would be happy to quarantine myself in nz on return however

[value_investor]

The grabaseat deals probably shows a bunch of seats that AIR would rather just breakeven on than go empty. Its quite unsettling to have empty seats on your most popular routes such as domestically or Australia in March. I know a few people been apprehensive of travelling to anywhere in Asia right now.

This is a good time for AIR to hedge long on the jetfuel prices. I still really like the long term prospects of the company still, and would accumulate more at sub $2.50 prices.

[winner69]

The grabaseat deals probably shows a bunch of seats that AIR would rather just breakeven on than go empty. Its quite unsettling to have empty seats on your most popular routes such as domestically or Australia in March. I know a few people been apprehensive of travelling to anywhere in Asia right now.

This is a good time for AIR to hedge long on the jetfuel prices. I still really like the long term prospects of the company still, and would accumulate more at sub $2.50 prices.

Sounds like you suggesting they should be in boots and all .....wouldn’t that approach just be gambling and something companies shouldn’t do?

[Beagle]

Very good chance this goes under $2 sometime in my opinion, potentially even much lower even than that but I won't try and bottom pick because the bottom will be impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy and will be determined by the severity of the fallout from this virus. My approach if anyone is interested is as follows.
1. Completely forget about fundamental analysis with AIR at present. Reason. Its impossible to predict what earnings will be going forward as this is totally reliant on the virus not scaring people enough so that en-masse they won't choose to defer or cancel discretionary or business travel.
2. Sticking with technical analysis its clear that AIR broke down through the 100 day moving average recently at $2.85. This is my usual preferred signal to get out of a cyclical company but as I was very sure the 100 day MA breech was coming I got out much earlier at $2.98.
3. To de-risk this, (potentially extremely serious virus risk), thoroughly, I will wait until it breaks back up through the 100 day moving average line, no matter how long it takes to do this. It is possible this may not happen for quite a protracted period of time and I am fine with that.

[King1212]

Well... finally AIR admitted that there will be an impact with this corona virus....good luck to those that bought in last couple weeks...

[bull....]

impact of corona virus not to bad 55 mil approx and could be of a short term nature. mitigated by lower fuel bill and capacity cuts to routes. Of course its still a moving situation. dividend shouldnt change

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348842

[winner69]

So virus impact $75m and counting ...and that’s assuming a significantly lower fuel cost (just as well for that)

Operating earnings now guessed at $275m ....and going down fast

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/348842/317306.pdf

[bull....]

Flight Centre says its sales to Asia are down 5 per cent following the coronavirus outbreak, with its travel suppliers offering special sale airfares to other parts of the world.
The travel agent said its airfares to China were down 75 per cent, as it had expected following the advent of Covid-19,but the outbreak had had only minimal effect on bookings to the region

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12310065

So if you look at air and what flight centre are saying. air nz impact to date is really all about china travel mostly in there downgrade. so the strategy is to buy air for the rebound in china travel ? if you think its a short term issue

[King1212]

Too early bull....that would be a suicide

[Beagle]

So virus impact $75m and counting ...and that’s assuming a significantly lower fuel cost (just as well for that)

Operating earnings now guessed at $275m ....and going down fast

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/348842/317306.pdf

Totally expected and I would think this is just the first of several downgrades to the 2020 outlook. Not surprised they are seeing reduction in demand on the Tasman and domestically and would expect demand will materially soften right across their network. I would think once they have worked their way through all those who booked before this virus and prepaid their tickets, unless there is a vaccine for this virus new bookings will be substantially lower they will be running at a loss.

[bull....]

Too early bull....that would be a suicide

yes. something to plan for in time ahead

[Sideshow Bob]

So much for cheap flights - I booked a flight this morning to get to a meeting next week. ZQN-CHC over $600.

More fool me - should just drive......

[winner69]

So much for cheap flights - I booked a flight this morning to get to a meeting next week. ZQN-CHC over $600.

More fool me - should just drive......

Cutting flights to and from ZQN I hear

[Snow Leopard]

Flight Centre says its sales to Asia are down 5 per cent following the coronavirus outbreak, with its travel suppliers offering special sale airfares to other parts of the world.
The travel agent said its airfares to China were down 75 per cent, as it had expected following the advent of Covid-19,but the outbreak had had only minimal effect on bookings to the region

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12310065

So if you look at air and what flight centre are saying. air nz impact to date is really all about china travel mostly in there downgrade. so the strategy is to buy air for the rebound in china travel ? if you think its a short term issue

Link says you can get "Return flights from Auckland to Barcelona with Etihad Airways for $1199":

if you come for the sixth of March you can buy me a drink :D .

Meanwhile FY20 EPS is $0.20. Cut the dividend or postpone some new aircraft ?

[Beagle]

So much for cheap flights - I booked a flight this morning to get to a meeting next week. ZQN-CHC over $600.

More fool me - should just drive......

Lovely drive that one...some of the best roads in N.Z.

[Beagle]

Link says you can get "Return flights from Auckland to Barcelona with Etihad Airways for $1199":

if you come for the sixth of March you can buy me a drink :D .

Meanwhile FY20 EPS is $0.20. Cut the dividend or postpone some new aircraft ?

I think they will keep the dividend the same as a "show" of financial strength but I don't think this is prudent as I think its crystal clear the storm coming could involve some very extreme turbulence.

[bull....]

Link says you can get "Return flights from Auckland to Barcelona with Etihad Airways for $1199":

if you come for the sixth of March you can buy me a drink :D .

Meanwhile FY20 EPS is $0.20. Cut the dividend or postpone some new aircraft ?

a targeted ad for the travelling leopard :)

[winner69]

Last time AIR was making profits around the $200m mark it’s shareprice was sub $1.50

[winner69]

Share price showing remarkable resilience

Probably punters saying phew not too bad after all ....and it’s all going to be over soon so no worries

[Beagle]

Share price showing remarkable resilience

Probably punters saying phew not too bad after all ....and it’s all going to be over soon so no worries

Calm before the storm. What does Balance always say about downgrades ? They usually come in 3's...and then there's the implications for FY21 to think about....Hmmm

In terms of travel in N.Z., anyone looking for an excuse for a decent road trip has a very good one !

[Hoop]

"...So if you look at air and what flight centre are saying. air nz impact to date is really all about china travel mostly in there downgrade. so the strategy is to buy air for the rebound in china travel ? if you think its a short term issue
BULL this is one ugly chart:p..
Why would anyone buy a bear and risk being mauled..
Wait for TA buy signals!!!

AIR suffered huge Technical damage at the end of January, so much so it killed the Bull..TA had given investors an early warning to exit

Most Bear cycles have more than one capitulation event..

11057

[ratkin]

Link says you can get "Return flights from Auckland to Barcelona with Etihad Airways for $1199":

if you come for the sixth of March you can buy me a drink :D .

Meanwhile FY20 EPS is $0.20. Cut the dividend or postpone some new aircraft ?

Right that it is, a flight to Spain at the start of the NZ winter sounds very appealing, do those cheap ones give any kind of refund if you sick and can't go?
Love Tarragona it is one of my favourite places. Some of the best Roman ruins anywhere, better than most of those in Italy

Edit

Best I can find for May is 1500 and that is from Auckland, and have to stop in AUS it takes a whopping 34 hours, that is me out

[bull....]

BULL this is one ugly chart:p..
Why would anyone buy a bear and risk being mauled..
Wait for TA buy signals!!!

AIR suffered huge Technical damage at the end of January, so much so it killed the Bull..TA had given investors an early warning to exit

Most Bear cycles have more than one capitulation event..

11057

wise words hoop

[bull....]

does air fly to sth korea ? a lot of countries have just issued travel alerts to not fly there today.

[Beagle]

BULL this is one ugly chart:p..
Why would anyone buy a bear and risk being mauled..
Wait for TA buy signals!!!

AIR suffered huge Technical damage at the end of January, so much so it killed the Bull..TA had given investors an early warning to exit

Most Bear cycles have more than one capitulation event..

11057

Smart money exiting - I like that part. 4 week range has a top at $2.98. Very happy with where I exited this :)
Agree 100% with your prognosis. No point in trying to pick the bottom in due course. Wait for the TA buy signals. People still aboard this bird better have strong stomach's and their seat belts very firmly fastened, they are in for a very wild ride !!

[peat]

does air fly to sth korea ? a lot of countries have just issued travel alerts to not fly there today.

Mav flew back from Seoul Air NZ last week so I guess it does.


with my short I have moved Stop Loss to Break Even @2.83

[Beagle]

does air fly to sth korea ? a lot of countries have just issued travel alerts to not fly there today.

Yes, that's their new route they recently started. Timing could not have been worse.

[bull....]

with my short I have moved Stop Loss to Break Even @2.83

your be flying high with this soon , look at all the countries closing border travel with infected countries

[King1212]

I am picking it at $1.80 in June....

[Sideshow Bob]

does air fly to sth korea ? a lot of countries have just issued travel alerts to not fly there today.

Page 2 of the announcement - "The airline announces today that services to Seoul will be temporarily suspended from 7 March through the end of June."

[Beagle]

Disc: I sold a while back at $2.98 and managed to get a short position on this more recently.

I see it having the potential to test multi years lows established in 2016 of ~ $1.75

[Hoop]

Disc: I sold a while back at $2.98 and managed to get a short position on this more recently.

I see it having the potential to test multi years lows established many years ago of $1.75

Well done :t_up:

[Beagle]

Thanks Hoop. Once we are eventually over the fear of flying with possible virus spread we have this sort of thing to "look forward too" as airlines claw back some profit https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12311083

[winner69]

No divie from AIR would stuff up Robertson’s Budget surplus expectations. (On top of lower AIRprofits)

Even worse if he had to stump up with a $100m at a capital raise.

[Beagle]

No divie from AIR would stuff up Robertson’s Budget surplus expectations. (On top of lower AIRprofits)

Even worse if he had to stump up with a $100m at a capital raise.

Capital raise can't be ruled out if the airline starts losing money. Interestingly they made money throughout the GFC but this is a whole new test and unlike the GFC in regard to flying this time its not people's finances they're worried about, its their health.

[winner69]

Capital raise can't be ruled out if the airline starts losing money. Interestingly they made money throughout the GFC but this is a whole new test and unlike the GFC in regard to flying this time its not people's finances they're worried about, its their health.

Yep made money through the GFC but struggled post GFC -- did it tke a while to get over things? or was that when oil went balliatic?

But whatever this is going to be the worst year for zonks for AIR ...and not worthy of lofty share price

[Beagle]

Yep made money through the GFC but struggled post GFC -- did it tke a while to get over things? or was that when oil went balliatic?

But whatever this is going to be the worst year for zonks for AIR ...and not worthy of lofty share price

Thanks for the questions and chart. I wish I had answers but only more questions.
Not sure why eps was so sluggish after the GFC ? Maybe it took people and business years to regain confidence again to spend money on flying ? Perhaps we can learn something from this history about how long it might take people to start travelling again after this virus, (assuming it becomes a world-wide pandemic which is looking more likely every day) ? If so, what are the implications for demand in FY21 and FY22 and earnings for those years if any ?
What do these risks suggest about the dividend outlook ?

[iceman]

Thanks for the questions and chart. I wish I had answers but only more questions.
Not sure why eps was so sluggish after the GFC ? Maybe it took people and business years to regain confidence again to spend money on flying ? Perhaps we can learn something from this history about how long it might take people to start travelling again after this virus, (assuming it becomes a world-wide pandemic which is looking more likely every day) ? If so, what are the implications for demand in FY21 and FY22 and earnings for those years if any ?
What do these risks suggest about the dividend outlook ?

I think it would be prudent for AIR, given the unprecedented uncertainties in front of them, to reduce or even suspend the dividend immediately. It wouldn't be liked much by the market but would be the right thing to do.

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate

The June 11 year was affected by ChCh and Japan quakes and 'sustained high fuel prices'

Worth noting that big events like those quakes turned a half year npbt of $112m profit into a full year loss of $75m - things can change fast eh

[winner69]

beagle - 2012 was a bit better profit wise but was affected by the residual impact of natural disasters and uncertain global economy. ….profit up from $75m to $91m

[winner69]

beagle and 2010 was a disappointing year “The uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery has continued to suppress demand for air travel over the past 12 months,”

Note - uncertainty seems to linger a while after a major event

[Beagle]

beagle and 2010 was a disappointing year “The uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery has continued to suppress demand for air travel over the past 12 months,”

Note - uncertainty seems to linger a while after a major event

Thanks for raising the subject, Interesting isn't it.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/cheaper-air-new-zealand-flights-expected-in-wake-of-covid-19-outbreak/ar-BB10ju8R?ocid=spartandhp
Excerpt "Any bum on a seat is better than no bum at all and even if it's only paid $19 to go somewhere, at least you're getting cash in."
Looks like they're proactively trying to manage their cash flow already. Safe to fly to Europe, especially Italy,...really ?

[Baa_Baa]

Yep made money through the GFC but struggled post GFC -- did it tke a while to get over things? or was that when oil went balliatic?

But whatever this is going to be the worst year for zonks for AIR ...and not worthy of lofty share price

What about the time proven law of 'respect market sentiment'. When you have a proven SP volatile cyclical that enters into a confirmed down trend, even finding exact! 'technical' supports seemingly out of the blue, with a backdrop of proven macro and local economic headwinds, you'd have to ask yourself "why have I no respect" by holding and hoping? Is the dividend (at risk) worth it?

This is a weekly price chart, every 'candle' is a whole week. The top was in a long time ago, now it's in breakdown. Whoa, look at that, closing exactly on a technical uptrend line. Reckon that support will hold and it'll be peaches and cream from now on? Hold if you do. The chart says wait until tomorrow if you're not already out on the sidelines.

Unless you have a forever timeline and wouldn't mind too much whether AIR stopped paying dividends or how decimated your capital investment might get, it'll come right one day and those $3-3.8+ SP glory days will return. No worries. If you are sensitive to capital losses and concerned about ability to pay dividends under stress, what are you going to do about it?

Doing nothing is an option for sure, just not an option I would choose. Sometimes TA trumps FA, it reads the market sentiment. The sentiment is really bad at the moment. Combined with the emerging FA, this isn't a happy place but it's not too late to lock in gains. Re-entries will come in time.

[value_investor]

A little bit of turbulence presents itself as a buying opportunity for this value investor. Gearing of the company is not bad, liquidity is at the companies own top range at $1.1b (range of $700m-$1b).

Perhaps kicking the can further down the road has been a bit of a blessing in disguise for the company in terms of fleet improvements. I'm sure this new CEO will have some ideas on the cost cutting side.

Will be backing up the truck in the low 2s if the opportunity presents itself. I don't see the affects being prolonged, the media hasn't really shown the full picture of the virus but their job is to sell clicks (more so now as people don't pay for newspapers anymore).

[peat]

shareclarity (fwiw, not very much?) provided their DCF valuation of AIR today , at $2.46

[Snow Leopard]

Right that it is, a flight to Spain at the start of the NZ winter sounds very appealing, do those cheap ones give any kind of refund if you sick and can't go?
Love Tarragona it is one of my favourite places. Some of the best Roman ruins anywhere, better than most of those in Italy

Edit

Best I can find for May is 1500 and that is from Auckland, and have to stop in AUS it takes a whopping 34 hours, that is me out

Gracias :cool: for the Tarragona tip, but only got time for a drink between trains this year :mellow: .

[Beagle]

Some American airlines down around 10% overnight :eek2: Won't take long to get to $2 in my opinion.

[peat]

original target of trade was met, but have moved stops lower and target lower as well.

[Sideshow Bob]

Some American airlines down around 10% overnight :eek2: Won't take long to get to $2 in my opinion.

Possibly not, but AIR have a stronger proposition and financial position than many of those US airlines.

Still have domestic NZ customers to gouge.....

[value_investor]

Possibly not, but AIR have a stronger proposition and financial position than many of those US airlines.

Still have domestic NZ customers to gouge.....

Very true, you have many airlines in the US fighting for domestic routes while here you have two players, and in some places just the single carrier with price gouging.

I think AIR was incredibly prudent in the past two or three financial years to only pay out 20-22c dividends and keep a buffer for a time period like this. They could've borrowed in excess, kept gearing very high like some airlines do and pay out higher but they chose not too.

I'm hoping to see what else they add to their coronavirus comments and the impact on future dividends when they report earnings later this month.

[ynot]

AIR slashing internal fares. No profit in that. Sub $2.00 soon.

[winner69]

Tourism guy on radio this morning said past experience with such events it takes up to 9 months for things to get back to anywhere normality....but is this event worse or more feared than previous events.

But no worries as Jacinda and Grant going to get tens of thousands extra tourists from elsewhere to replace the Chinese who ain’t coming soon.

[Snow Leopard]

https://simpleflying.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/IMG_1376-1024x683.jpg

When the going gets tough start flying NASA missions :cool:

Air New Zealand joins forces with NASA (https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-partners-with-nasa-to-collect-climate-data/)

[bull....]

Tourism guy on radio this morning said past experience with such events it takes up to 9 months for things to get back to anywhere normality....but is this event worse or more feared than previous events.

But no worries as Jacinda and Grant going to get tens of thousands extra tourists from elsewhere to replace the Chinese who ain’t coming soon.

lol when the world is in lock down will air even be around?

[Blue Skies]

AIR slashing internal fares. No profit in that. Sub $2.00 soon.


Let's not get too carried away.
AIR have always had promotional fares but they are not slashing all domestic fares across the board as it appears you imply.

If you want to travel to Wellington tomorrow & need to be at the office for 8.30am meeting, the Flexidate fare is going to cost you either $309 or $406 one way.
If you want to fly down after work for the weekend, the fares are $448 or $490 OW for flights departing at 4.30p, 5.30p & 7p.
That's hardly a slashed fare.

Members of my family fly Auckland Wellington return every week for work & tbh the fares don't look much different now than late last year & flights still full.

Of course there's going to be an impact but some of the comments here are a bit careless & over enthusiastic.

[Beagle]

lol when the world is in lock down will air even be around?

The beauty of having the Govt as the majority shareholder is they know there has to be key transport infrastructure so if a cash issue is required to support the airline I would think its highly likely the Govt would support that.

[Blue Skies]

The beauty of having the Govt as the majority shareholder is they know there has to be key transport infrastructure so if a cash issue is required to support the airline I would think its highly likely the Govt would support that.

That's so true & such a significant distinction between AIR and the US airlines (& many other airlines around the world).
As a quirk of geography, the govt & NZ tourism would never allow us to become solely dependent on foreign carriers, we need a strong national airline to support our economy.

[dobby41]

Let's not get too carried away.
AIR have always had promotional fares but they are not slashing all domestic fares across the board as it appears you imply.

If you want to travel to Wellington tomorrow & need to be at the office for 8.30am meeting, the Flexidate fare is going to cost you either $309 or $406 one way.
If you want to fly down after work for the weekend, the fares are $448 or $490 OW for flights departing at 4.30p, 5.30p & 7p.
That's hardly a slashed fare.

Members of my family fly Auckland Wellington return every week for work & tbh the fares don't look much different now than late last year & flights still full.

Of course there's going to be an impact but some of the comments here are a bit careless & over enthusiastic.

Even the grabaseat out today for Hamilton to Wellington isn't cheap.
$49 for December but have to fly at 6:30am.
More reasonable times are $99 to $159 like normal.

[bull....]

the biggest hit to air will come if/when the virus hits NZ and people stay home

[Beagle]

That's so true & such a significant distinction between AIR and the US airlines (& many other airlines around the world).
As a quirk of geography, the govt & NZ tourism would never allow us to become solely dependent on foreign carriers, we need a strong national airline to support our economy.

True that. Luxon's key cliché was supercharging the economy...suppose Foran can't use that so will revert to something like "turbocharging the economy"
Good that turbochargers generally run at much higher boost pressure than superchargers as I think the economy is going to need that.

[Raz]

Let's not get too carried away.
AIR have always had promotional fares but they are not slashing all domestic fares across the board as it appears you imply.

If you want to travel to Wellington tomorrow & need to be at the office for 8.30am meeting, the Flexidate fare is going to cost you either $309 or $406 one way.
If you want to fly down after work for the weekend, the fares are $448 or $490 OW for flights departing at 4.30p, 5.30p & 7p.
That's hardly a slashed fare.

Members of my family fly Auckland Wellington return every week for work & tbh the fares don't look much different now than late last year & flights still full.

Of course there's going to be an impact but some of the comments here are a bit careless & over enthusiastic.

Agree, have seen no real discounting with AIR, sale price fares are similar to last year..its other airlines looking at discounting, Qantas special fares in some cases 10% lower than last year...look at asia and middle east and then you see some real discounting.

[peat]

FTR
Closed the short , a nice trade thanks Beagle for the suggestion.
And while I don't like airlines I must admit though I dont like to hold short positions too long either. Despite what Jesse Livermore said.

[Beagle]

You're welcome peat. I took notes when you sold some SUM at ~ $9 and appreciate your post even if I didn't agree with it at the time :)

I continue to believe this is an excellent stock to short in the short term.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

FTR
Closed the short , a nice trade thanks Beagle for the suggestion.
And while I don't like airlines I must admit though I dont like to hold short positions too long either. Despite what Jesse Livermore said.

Do you mind me asking what mechanism/provider you use to short on NZX?

[peat]

Do you mind me asking what mechanism/provider you use to short on NZX?

Its no secret so I'll post it - I use CMC Markets who provde CFD's Contracts for Difference on a large number of international securities.
And though I get utility from their service it is worth commenting that two respected posters here have not been happy with them.
DYOR on both CMC and CFD's

[Beagle]

Aviation commentator Grant Bradley talks about this virus having a "9/11 type event", effect on demand :eek2:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12311618

[ynot]

Let's not get too carried away.
AIR have always had promotional fares but they are not slashing all domestic fares across the board as it appears you imply.

If you want to travel to Wellington tomorrow & need to be at the office for 8.30am meeting, the Flexidate fare is going to cost you either $309 or $406 one way.
If you want to fly down after work for the weekend, the fares are $448 or $490 OW for flights departing at 4.30p, 5.30p & 7p.
That's hardly a slashed fare.

Members of my family fly Auckland Wellington return every week for work & tbh the fares don't look much different now than late last year & flights still full.

Of course there's going to be an impact but some of the comments here are a bit careless & over enthusiastic.
Fair comment, i am easily excited! Still think its in for a rough ride

[Beagle]

Fair comment, i am easily excited! Still think its in for a rough ride

Anyone still riding this bird should definitely have their seat belts firmly fastened, be expecting extreme turbulence and have their sick bag in hand !

[winner69]

What’s the cost of putting a chunk of your fleet in cotton wool and not flying them cause no passengers

[BlackPeter]

What’s the cost of putting a chunk of your fleet in cotton wool and not flying them cause no passengers

Whats the cost of having lots of staff idling their thumbs? Obviously - they can get rid of them (like forestry industry seems to plan), but might be more difficult for them to find trained replacement staff when the tide turns?

[Bjauck]

What’s the cost of putting a chunk of your fleet in cotton wool and not flying them cause no passengers

The aircraft boneyards may do a good business?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_boneyard

[Sideshow Bob]

Hiring ban....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/119776851/air-new-zealand-imposes-hiring-freeze-in-some-areas-due-to-coronavirus-union-says (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/119776851/air-new-zealand-imposes-hiring-freeze-in-some-areas-due-to-coronavirus-union-says)

[winner69]

Seems all the PR work around this great innovative Nest thing (that’ll never fly) is aimed at distracting the media away from their tumbling profits

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Its no secret so I'll post it - I use CMC Markets who provde CFD's Contracts for Difference on a large number of international securities.
And though I get utility from their service it is worth commenting that two respected posters here have not been happy with them.
DYOR on both CMC and CFD's

Thanks peat

[winner69]

Make $101m profit and give shareholders $124m in divies

Suppose that’s good use of the cash from all the cancelled flights .....transfer of wealth from non flyers to shareholders

[Joshuatree]

The aircraft boneyards may do a good business?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_boneyard

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/B52sdestroyed.jpg/220px-B52sdestroyed.jpg

Aircraft boneyard love it. Looks like it would make a great wallpaper pattern :)

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317643.pdf Cut through all the talk and go straight to page 9 which shows how the interim profit has tracked down, down, down year on year for the last 5 years and then think about the outlook.

Like you Winner I am surprised they are paying out more in dividends than they earned, especially in the very much heightened risk environment. I'll leave it to others to judge whether this is bold or reckless. I'm not planning to do much analysis on this result as it should be crystal clear the outlook is "extremly challenging"

[bull....]

flight centre release saying significant hit to earnings hoping 2021 is better but no idea really

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200227/pdf/44fhww3nxy2m20.pdf

[RTM]

flight centre release saying significant hit to earnings hoping 2021 is better but no idea really

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200227/pdf/44fhww3nxy2m20.pdf

Really ? No idea ?
They do say...
“Currently expecting significant 2H earnings impact, but with possibility of rapid FY21 rebound (based on SARS experience)”
So I guess they have some idea that it might be similar to SARS. Let’s hope it is.
Do people really think that mankind will not get on top of the current virus issue ?

[Beagle]

Really ? No idea ?
They do say...
“Currently expecting significant 2H earnings impact, but with possibility of rapid FY21 rebound (based on SARS experience)”
So I guess they have some idea that it might be similar to SARS. Let’s hope it is.
Do people really think that mankind will not get on top of the current virus issue ?

When ?
How much financial impact in the meantime ?
How long after that until normal confidence is restored ?

Talk on CNBC this morning it could be a year to a year and a half before a vaccine is widely available. There's a LOT of fixed costs running an airline mate and if revenue starts really falling off it doesn't take much before they're running at a loss.

[bull....]

Really ? No idea ?
They do say...
“Currently expecting significant 2H earnings impact, but with possibility of rapid FY21 rebound (based on SARS experience)”
So I guess they have some idea that it might be similar to SARS. Let’s hope it is.
Do people really think that mankind will not get on top of the current virus issue ?

you left off the bit under that comment

outlook remains uncertain

[Mr Slothbear]

Beagle have you considered CNBC have a financial incentive to publish sensationalist or otherwise scary or shocking information or news?

worth taking that with a mountain of salt. The world isn’t collapsing just a few more good deals on offer

[blackcap]

Beagle have you considered CNBC have a financial incentive to publish sensationalist or otherwise scary or shocking information or news?

worth taking that with a mountain of salt. The world isn’t collapsing just a few more good deals on offer

CNBC are just a bunch of noise that adds little value to the investor. It's interesting for sure but as to helping with stock picking... puhlease.

[Beagle]

Beagle have you considered CNBC have a financial incentive to publish sensationalist or otherwise scary or shocking information or news?

worth taking that with a mountain of salt. The world isn’t collapsing just a few more good deals on offer

From my observations they have a very wide range of guest investment professionals commentating and offering quite a range of opinions. Some of their presenters are also extremely knowledgeable, like Michael Santoli and Bob Pansani who are especially good and professional.
CNBC, in my opinion gives one a very good window into what else is happening in the business world other than what's happening on this tiny little island at the bottom of the world called New Zealand.

[Joshuatree]

i second that , have been watching CNBC for many years and confirm a year at the earliest for a vaccine to be available.

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting GS SP analysis today showing 28% upside ............

We are Neutral rated on Air New Zealand with a 12-month target price of NZ$3.07

[Beagle]

Interesting GS SP analysis today showing 28% upside ............

We are Neutral rated on Air New Zealand with a 12-month target price of NZ$3.07

I think their analyst is taking a very benign view of the Covid 19 virus risks.

They say in the airline business to never waste a good recession. Time to clean out some old wood in the flight crew making $500K plus, a whole lot of pigs with their snouts in the trough at head office making similar money...make everyone earning over $200K reapply for their job and get a 3 year wage freeze on all unionised workers. Costs have to come down because earnings have been falling for five years in a row now.

[Raz]

I think their analyst is taking a very benign view of the Covid 19 virus risks.

They say in the airline business to never waste a good recession. Time to clean out some old wood in the flight crew making $500K plus, a whole lot of pigs with their snouts in the trough at head office making similar money...make everyone earning over $200K reapply for their job and get a 3 year wage freeze on all unionised workers. Costs have to come down because earnings have been falling for five years in a row now.

It is going to happen in a hurry. I often see travel demand better indicated by using booking sites for accommodation as a proxy. The booking sites algorithm results in deep discounts when heavy cancelations occur and capacity increases suddenly. Seeing deep discount for Queenstown in April/May and even as far out as second half of the year for european cities. A lot of people backing out of their travel plans. Anyone want to pay around a third of the normal nightly rate in London?

[dreamcatcher]

I believe analyst is realistic expecting people and businesses to return to 'normal' quickly with students flying-goods been shipped-families holidaying etc airlines will be in catch up mode. But agree with you about heaps of overpaid people with cushy jobs but not just at AIR its a disease that spreads faster then Covid-19

Mechanic friend tells me some vehicle parts running dry probably many more industries in same position. I ask how long can everyone live in a fear bubble about flying.

In China Covid-19 has been falling since 16th Feb's peak of 58.747 active cases to 46,222 yesterday with 33,026 recovered

[winner69]

Probably more than 10 million people travelled in planes yesterday ....wonder how many caught that covid-19 virus?

Suppose quite a few did pick up a few other things going around.

[Beagle]

It is going to happen in a hurry. I often see travel demand better indicated by using booking sites for accommodation as a proxy. The booking sites algorithm results in deep discounts when heavy cancelations occur and capacity increases suddenly. Seeing deep discount for Queenstown in April/May and even as far out as second half of the year for european cities. A lot of people backing out of their travel plans. Anyone want to pay around a third of the normal nightly rate in London?

Very good insight mate, thanks.

[Cadalac123]

Please keep selling this stock so I can pick this up sub 2$

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317643.pdf Cut through all the talk and go straight to page 9 which shows how the interim profit has tracked down, down, down year on year for the last 5 years and then think about the outlook.

Like you Winner I am surprised they are paying out more in dividends than they earned, especially in the very much heightened risk environment. I'll leave it to others to judge whether this is bold or reckless. I'm not planning to do much analysis on this result as it should be crystal clear the outlook is "extremly challenging"

I have thought long and hard about the steadily declining profit graphic depicted on page 9 in the above link showing profit going down year on year for the last 5 years. What a sad state of affairs. With the current outlook I see no reason at present to pay anything over the current NTA of the airline which is currently $1.63 but will shortly be $1.52 after they pay out the 11 cent dividend, (which based on my historical detailed review of previous financial statements is never accrued in the financials'). I don't think $2 is the bargain it might appear to be and my assessment is based on the fact that we have a worldwide pandemic even if the world health organisation don't want to admit it (because they say doing so would cause panic).

In a worse case scenario this could potential trade at a substantial discount to NTA. Not possible you say ? Just wait and see.
Disc : Short.

[Raz]

Yes, hard to argue a floor...

[winner69]

I have thought long and hard about the steadily declining profit graphic depicted on page 9 in the above link showing profit going down year on year for the last 5 years. What a sad state of affairs. With the current outlook I see no reason at present to pay anything over the current NTA of the airline which is currently $1.63 but will shortly be $1.52 after they pay out the 11 cent dividend, (which based on my historical detailed review of previous financial statements is never accrued in the financials'). I don't think $2 is the bargain it might appear to be and my assessment is based on the fact that we have a worldwide pandemic even if the world health organisation don't want to admit it (because they say doing so would cause panic).

In a worse case scenario this could potential trade at a substantial discount to NTA.

If they had included pre2015 it would look bit cyclical eh beagle.

Luxon was lucky in 2014 and it was down hill from there

[BlackPeter]

If they had included pre2015 it would look bit cyclical eh beagle.

Luxon was lucky in 2014 and it was down hill from there

Luxons timing was certainly impeccable. It takes typically five years for markets to realize that they are fooled (maybe the main reason for these 5 year CEO contracts). He used this time to its fullest extent.

Just wondering whether we just found another thing he has in common with Sir John ;)?

[Beagle]

Desperation specials on the Tasman, just check the return price to make sure the return journey isn't priced normally. https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/
Edit its not. Return to Melbourne for as little as $205 including all N.Z. and Australian taxes which would probably make up the vast majority of the price.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-raises-worries-about-a-broad-slowdown-in-air-travel.html

[IAK]

Air New Zealand floats leave without pay, slashes Aussie fares. Poor old Foran only be in the job a few weeks. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312668 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312668)

[Beagle]

Yeap, this is on a scale like nothing they have seen before. I predict demand will simply fall off the edge of a cliff. Some of the longest serving senior flight crew on $400,000+ are probably skating on pretty thin ice...I think the changes Foran will have to make are going to be unprecedented and extremely ruthless and if the unions don't like it then perhaps they should consider the greater good, if dramatic changes are not made...

This excerpt is pretty telling "Chief revenue officer Cam Wallace said thousands of transtasman cut-price fares were released to stimulate the important market where the airline had aircraft needing to be filled. ''We have available aircraft and crew to fly them so we've got to keep going,'' he said. Emphasis added.

[kiwijay]

Given Transtasman taxes are about $57, $69 is an absolute steal! What's concerning is that leaves Air NZ with a fare of $12 for a 3hr flight to cover its expenses. I think at this point, they have "committed" planes that have to fly, and they need to fill those last remaining seats to achieve some sort of breakeven and prevent the cancellation (and compensation) of the flight. Pretty concerning as someone that has worked in airline pricing previously.

[Beagle]

Given Transtasman taxes are about $57, $69 is an absolute steal! What's concerning is that leaves Air NZ with a fare of $12 for a 3hr flight to cover its expenses. I think at this point, they have "committed" planes that have to fly, and they need to fill those last remaining seats to achieve some sort of breakeven and prevent the cancellation (and compensation) of the flight. Pretty concerning as someone that has worked in airline pricing previously.

Agreed, that is desperation pricing and shows you how incredibly confronting the problem is.

[biker]

.......... Some of the longest serving senior flight crew are probably skating on pretty thin ice....

What do you mean Beagle? I thought there was some sort of seniority system so in your scenario wouldn’t the shortest serving junior flight crew be the ones on the thin ice?

[Beagle]

What do you mean Beagle? I thought there was some sort of seniority system so in your scenario wouldn’t the shortest serving junior flight crew be the ones on the thin ice?

They may have to cut costs in a really meaningful way.

[biker]

Yeah, right

[Raz]

Given Transtasman taxes are about $57, $69 is an absolute steal! What's concerning is that leaves Air NZ with a fare of $12 for a 3hr flight to cover its expenses. I think at this point, they have "committed" planes that have to fly, and they need to fill those last remaining seats to achieve some sort of breakeven and prevent the cancellation (and compensation) of the flight. Pretty concerning as someone that has worked in airline pricing previously.

Yes scrapping for marginal revenue to minimise losses before cancellation. That is pretty unheard of for airlines (esp. AIR) unless they are moving to a tight spot. That is why accommodation providers provide a forward indicator.

[iceman]

Airlines wrldwide really are suffering. I follow Norwegian (low cost) and Icelandair. (tourist orientated) The former closed at NKK 17.36 Thursday, down from NKK 36.00 last Friday. The latter down 25% this week. We sure are in dangerous territory and this airline business is definitely one to stay away from at the moment

[Beagle]

Yeah, right

Yeah right indeed..."no problem" if the whole country has to go into lockdown for a few months after all AIR has current liabilities of $2.927 billion, well covered by current assets of $1.768 billion...opps oh wait....that's a shortfall of $1.15 billion shortly to be over $1.27 billion when the dividend is paid out

But lets not worry about that...those current liabilities include revenue in advance of just under $1.4 billion so we can take those off, or can we seeing as they are contractual obligations of the airline to fly customers....but how do they fly them if we're all in lockdown ?...they'll have to be repaid as flights are cancelled. No worries as the company has $1b in cash, opps less over $124m after paying shareholders, better make that $877m...so they can "easily" repay those flights. What could possibly go wrong...

Just as well the Govt is there as a backstop isn't it...another bailout potentially coming in a worse case scenario ? At what share price might the new shares be issued ?

Disc: Short - Still the best stock to short on the NZX despite the 24% decline in recent weeks, in my opinion.

[biker]

Yes, all good shorting talk

[Mr Slothbear]

Someones gotta explain how and why transtasman taxes are $57. With the e gates theres not even the need for someone to look at the passports just one person to walk the cute beagle along to sniff and other typical airport costs.

feels weird when these $69 fares are hyped but in europe the fares are much cheaper.

i flew from bremen germany to fez morroco for 10 euro or less than 20 nzd for a 3 hour flight. Granted it was a low cost carrier but this really doesn’t change things like fuel.

i also flew from Bremen to stockholm for 13 euros or about 20 bucks and yes only about an hour flight time but it wasn’t even a special fare just a standard one you could book anytime.

Looks like Transtasman costs need to be seriously looked at and cut down.