AIR - Air NZ.

[Cyclical]

In 10-15 years (or more) things could look very different for AIR. Couldn’t they?

I'm sure we would have bailed them out again by then :) Assuming Qantas hadn't already taken over Australasia :scared:

[mp52]

Dang - 592,538 in the queue @ 132. That's some good news from somewhere alright.

[RGR367]

MS on ASB shows 15th April Accumulate #2.10 downgrade due to price change..........not that many people take notice.

Still have a small holding in AIR and was not expecting such a huge bounce so will continue to watch with interest

You're probably new to ASB. Click on AIR again and you'll see the info that says "A latest recommendation report has not been issued by Morningstar for this stock." and that was placed there dated yesterday 15 April. If it was upgraded by MS then you should be able to read their latest commentary. Anyway, today's sp gave me an outlet to divest my remaining shares. Sold 3/4 early March and was thinking of holding on to the last qtr against all hopes. It's been a wonderful stock just before CoVid-19.

[flyer]

Potential of using Air NZ Trans Tasman, back and forths across the ditch in an Australisian bubble. Winnie said govt working on a plan.

[Food4Thought]

Hello AIRnz Thread...

I don't have time to look, apologies if someone else has mentioned this.

Does Air NZ not buy oil futures...

How many years are they locked in for?

I'd say there sure are signs of overconfidence in a recovery wirh current prices.

Waiting for data. It's going to be very rough imo.

[Beagle]

Been covered before. They're about a quarter of a billion down the Alice in Wonderland rat hole with their oil hedging. What's a quick quarter of a billion over 9 months between friends though ? They'll BBQ that much cash and then some in April 2020 alone ! The irony is they can't afford to make their senior pilots that earn more than our Prime Minister redundant because of their lucrative redundancy conditions in their contracts.

[Blue Skies]

Would be good to hear from someone who’s buying at these levels & what their rationale is ?

[justakiwi]

If they have any sense, this is the last place they should share that information with.


Would be good to hear from someone who’s buying at these levels & what their rationale is ?

[peat]

11312

its DB clients as well

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/instrumenttradingranking.aspx

[nztx]

This inexplicable bounce will be mighty helpful if they want to hoover up some more equity through an equity issue at say $1 with Govt support. Up until a few days ago, I thought any capital raise would be at 50 cents or below. Somehow, if this dead cat bounce persists, they may just get one away at $1. That would be impressive.

What does the $1 buy though -- a heap of mostly grounded big birds parked up looking pretty on the ground with no crew to fly them ?

[nztx]

NZX at the moment: High Bid $1.45 Low Offer $1.185 ; Day's high $1.32 :-)

[Cyclical]

What does the $1 buy though -- a heap of mostly grounded big birds parked up looking pretty on the ground with no crew to fly them ?

They've still got plenty of crew though, haven't they? There in lies one of the problems...

[nztx]

They've still got plenty of crew though, haven't they? There in lies one of the problems...


They may have to tap the Govt Overdraft at Extortionary Usury rates to be able to afford to fly some.. With Airfreight rates expensive, can customers afford those hefty rates as well ?

[propertynewb]

Would be good to hear from someone who’s buying at these levels & what their rationale is ?

Plenty of people like me who are in property and KiwiSaver but never had a dabble in the market - I threw a little bit in a few years back through ASB but didn’t continue as I was trying to get in the FHB market. Now I have properties I’m moving into this out of pure interest.

I have been following and growing my understanding of the market for a while and decided to jump in. It just happened to be when AIR was at 0.88...

[Beagle]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516672/nz-shares-rise-as-investor-fomo-stokes-demand-for-beat-up-stocks.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+16+Apr+ 2020

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/delusional-investors-are-underestimating-the-economic-shock-the-world-is-facing-20200416-p54kc3.html (Thanks to Winner69 for this link)

[propertynewb]

A question to consider is, do you think Air NZ has the financial wherewithal to survive many months of major cash burn while travel restrictions are in place and demand is dormant? If not, how much new equity do you think they will need to raise, and at what price and what impact to current shareholders?
A fair degree of uncertainty in all of this.

Bottom line to your question - no. I’m expecting the Govt to intervene in the short-mid term and increase their equity to keep it afloat, on top what AIR choose to do. The CEO’s reputation gives me confidence.

Maybe in three years we move back to BAU. As with neolib policy the Govt will reduce its position at a profit, but from there, who knows.

Can AIR survive on a domestic service? I think it will tide us over until we can resume international tourism. I would expect the industry to evolve to the circumstances and although it looks all doom and gloom now, globalisation will continue. The share market will adapt to the ”new normal”.

Although I’m only having a “dabble” here I’m young enough to let it sit. When I checked my random buy in Jan there was a big 405% next to it so I assume that means something good. Pity I lost my FIN so it’ll just sit there for another 8 years.

[Ecks]

Perhaps this is the reason for the recent 50% upturn
Just like security measures implemented post September 11, an added check through airport gates will be a 10 minute test for Covid19 (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/04/emirates-begins-rapid-covid-19-testing-for-passengers.html)

[Beagle]

Welcome to the forum propertynewb. Your post reminds me of when I first invested in AIR as a young beancounter about 35 years ago. I felt such a strong sense of pride to be investing in our national airline and a real sense I was part of an exciting future of growth AIR had in the wonderful aviation industry.

I've been an investor on and off ever since. There is no question whatsoever in my mind that you could not have chosen a worse time to buy shares in AIR. Good luck, you're going to need it.

[propertynewb]

Maybe I’ll be around in 35 more to tell the tale. “Hey Siri, remind me in 2055 to check my AIR balance”.

[tommy_d]

Welcome to the forum propertynewb. Your post reminds me of when I first invested in AIR as a young beancounter about 35 years ago. I felt such a strong sense of pride to be investing in our national airline and a real sense I was part of an exciting future of growth AIR had in the wonderful aviation industry.

I've been an investor on and off ever since. There is no question whatsoever in my mind that you could not have chosen a worse time to buy shares in AIR. Good luck, you're going to need it.

thoughts on the long-term value in terms of learning and understanding of a small play on AIR right now (likely loss or otherwise) ? noting that losing real $$ is likely a better teacher than losing hypothetical "if i had bought them!' dollars?

in the sense that having no idea (like me!), buying 10% of a weekly wage of AIR @.8, watching it rise to 1.2, holding, then watching it plummet, then asking the questions why and using the answers to inform future decisions might be worth a lot more than that initial gamble?

[Snow Leopard]

Story is that all 777's are being grounded for a year, possible old -200 ones will never fly in AIR livery again.
Just under 1,000 long haul crew to go.

So much uncertainty over time-frames and demand makes it impossible to put a current value on AIR.

[Blue Skies]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516672/nz-shares-rise-as-investor-fomo-stokes-demand-for-beat-up-stocks.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+16+Apr+ 2020

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/delusional-investors-are-underestimating-the-economic-shock-the-world-is-facing-20200416-p54kc3.html (Thanks to Winner69 for this link)



I think that's a very good point Matthew Goodson, MD of Salt Funds Management makes in that link you provided Beagle.
Many will be under the illusion the Rescue Package (actually a loan with high interest) is a Rescue Package for the owners i.e. shareholders, which of course it is not.

With costs far far outweighing revenue, & massive debt, remaining shareholders are going to get smashed.

[Beagle]

I think that's a very good point Matthew Goodson, MD of Salt Funds Management makes in that link you provided Beagle.
Many will be under the illusion the Rescue Package (actually a loan with high interest) is a Rescue Package for the owners i.e. shareholders, which of course it is not.

With costs far far outweighing revenue, & massive debt, remaining shareholders are going to get smashed.

Like many on here of a certain age I have seen the effects on AIR from SARS, MERS, EBOLA, HINI, 9/11 the GFC and the crashes of the A320 in France and who can ever forget the haunting images permanently imprinted in our minds of the horrific DC10 crash at Mount Erebus.

From a business perspective the challenge AIR faces from Covid 19 is completely off the charts compared to any challenge ever faced before. I don't think the young ones understand this so they will have to learn the hard way. Nothing I can say on here will change the fact some people have to learn the hard way so I won't try too hard.

[clip]

Today AIR share price rockets away upwards..presently 127c up 9c +7.6% on lower volume.. momentum has increased BB released with price trend Gapped up...but the -ve divergence is still there... (https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=NZ%3Aair&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F15%2F2020&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=50+100+200&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=65536&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=54&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11)
From my previous 1 year chart (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ&p=807311&viewfull=1#post807311)the breakout (orange arrow) is now blue with confirmation of the yesterdays squeezed BB now being released and the change of price trend is upwards not downwards...good news eh?..Next Price target 133c ?

I agree with all that people left holding the bag will definitely be seeing some red in portfolio, but looking at depth looks like it's going to 133 on open and I suspect beyond that later in the day

[blackcap]

I agree with all that people left holding the bag will definitely be seeing some red in portfolio, but looking at depth looks like it's going to 133 on open and I suspect beyond that later in the day

This could be why?

https://twitter.com/SaraWalker_IG/status/1250904305332346882

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

“The severely hit patients are at such high-risk of fatality. So if it’s true that many of the 113 patients were in this category and were discharged, it’s another positive signal that the drug has efficacy,” he said, adding that it will be important to see more data from randomized controlled studies.

[kiora]

A "successful" treatment will allow the economy to return to "normal" a lot quicker than a vaccine

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324948

16 777's now effectively rendered almost worthless ?
It didn't take them long to burn through their own $1.000m in cash did it ! Now looking at drawing down on the $900m Govt loan. That should see them through to June or July 2020 but after that ?

[Ecks]

Ding! AIR just hit a 75% increase on their March low, now at $1.4...surely the ceiling has been hit, reality of AIR's dire situation must set in soon!

[clip]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324948

16 777's now effectively rendered almost worthless ?
It didn't take them long to burn through their own $1.000m in cash did it ! Now looking at drawing down on the $900m Govt loan. That should see them through to June or July 2020 but after that ?

The article doesn't explicitly say that, does it? More than likely true but is there any data that actually confirms it?

"It now faces drawing on a $900m bailout loan from the Government as it burns through cash."

[Flugenbear]

Don't think I've ever seen such a screaming sell....ever....

I was a little premature....lol.
But now, surely...
Or have I missed something? Are they about to ramp up operations?
Share price seems to think so....

[blackcap]

I was a little premature....lol.
But now, surely...
Or have I missed something? Are they about to ramp up operations?
Share price seems to think so....

There may be a treatment available for Covid. Us futures up bigly at the moment too. Guess there is an expectation that flights might begin earlier? Not convinced myself yet though.

[skeet]

None of this makes sense, yet every day this week my expectations are blown away. Got in at 84c thinking this was maybe to high in the short term. Ive asked my contacts at AirNZ they don't understand the movements either.

[Flugenbear]

There may be a treatment available for Covid. Us futures up bigly at the moment too. Guess there is an expectation that flights might begin earlier? Not convinced myself yet though.
Yeah also not convinced. Remdesivir has been around awhile but I would be very surprised if it turns out to be the silver bullet.
It could be helpful, but almost certainly not to the extent that NZ will open it's borders again.
I'm afraid we're waiting for a vaccine.
I'm more afraid we're waiting awhile.
And that would really suck.

[Filthy]

surely this thing is due a speeding ticket????
up ~73% in the past 5 trading days on no news
has there been full disclosure?

[mp52]

Like many on here of a certain age I have seen the effects on AIR from SARS, MERS, EBOLA, HINI, 9/11 the GFC and the crashes of the A320 in France and who can ever forget the haunting images permanently imprinted in our minds of the horrific DC10 crash at Mount Erebus...

Well, I came in on a good discount with the ebola scare which was a great opportunity (cheers Roger wherever you are). Thanks to the intervening divs even if AIR goes to the wall it's only an inflation loss on the money in so past scares have certainly provided opportunities. The question now is whether to climb out now and get a respectable yield. There's a confounded curiosity to hang on to the coat tails and see where the hell this thing goes (and why).

[JeremyALD]

It's almost back to the levels of 2017? when everyone was worried about international competition. Now its almost back up there with worries of NO international travel. Go figure.

[Beagle]

Well, I came in on a good discount with the ebola scare which was a great opportunity (cheers Roger wherever you are). Thanks to the intervening divs even if AIR goes to the wall it's only an inflation loss on the money in so past scares have certainly provided opportunities. The question now is whether to climb out now and get a respectable yield. There's a confounded curiosity to hang on to the coat tails and see where the hell this thing goes (and why).

User name change some time back mate. You're welcome. I think this is much worse than the Ebola scare but the share price is much the same. Go figure ?

[mp52]

User name change some time back mate. You're welcome. I think this is much worse than the Ebola scare but the share price is much the same. Go figure ?

Ah, Roger=Beagle - good to know! Agreed - parachute harness on but enjoying the updraft.

[flyer]

So mis read this, here I was telling a couple of friends not to buy in at 80c as it should drop to under 50c, that was only 2 weeks ago. The volume is way too much for something big not happening. Just wondering if looking to aussie domestic market, they are needing another airline if virgin cant be propped up - Air AUSTRALIA?

[propertynewb]

This reminds me of bitcoin in December 2017.

[Timesurfer]

Not sure if it is enough volume to be driving the market but there are an awful lot of new investors sitting at home with nothing better to do than gamble on the stockmarket - and at the moment it is all coming up smelling of roses for them, so they encourage their mates in and on it goes.

[JeremyALD]

So mis read this, here I was telling a couple of friends not to buy in at 80c as it should drop to under 50c, that was only 2 weeks ago. The volume is way too much for something big not happening. Just wondering if looking to aussie domestic market, they are needing another airline if virgin cant be propped up - Air AUSTRALIA?

To be honest I'm not sure anymore. The NZX is only about 10% off all time highs now so I think AIR is just joining that journey. Plenty of other shares have almost doubled in the last two weeks.

I mean even THL is back up to $1.50 and their business is surely stuffed for a good year at least.

[Chessboxin]

Not sure if it is enough volume to be driving the market but there are an awful lot of new investors sitting at home with nothing better to do than gamble on the stockmarket - and at the moment it is all coming up smelling of roses for them, so they encourage their mates in and on it goes.


Looking at the Sharesies Facebook group it seems like they are all piling in to AIR. Nevermind the 1% revenue guidance, it's going up, buy more!

[silverblizzard888]

Its all newbie money haha, its like they are all buying the well known names, it'll probably happen to every other stock onces the steam runs out and they get addicted to those easy gains. Rake in the gold old timers big wave of new money coming from all directions!

But seriously fundamentally people are crazy.

[Arbroath]

AIR is a very difficult investment situation at the moment and as some would say perhaps univestable because of the degree of uncertainty. However a couple of things stand out for me on this thread at the moment:
- there are a lot of haters of AIR that can't entertain any other scenario than a bad one for AIR holders;
- a fair amount of arrogance about the little sharesies people...what would those novices know etc.
- today is the highest volume day since the the stock came out of trading halt (crashed from $1.54 to below a buck that day) and the stock is strong on the day so far.

Not saying I'm bullish but its useful to keep an open mind that anyone base case scenario can be wrong and sometimes wrong in a big way.

As I said it's useful to keep an open mind. When I posted that it was $1.03 and now $1.59. I have sold out on the bounce which has been far larger than I imagined and it doesn't make any fundamental sense to me but it's still trading strong for now

[King1212]

Mayday...mayday... mayday...look like AIR plane is crashing!

[Entrep]

This reminds me of bitcoin in December 2017.

lol I was thinking the same thing on my run earlier today

[Cadalac123]

Its all newbie money haha, its like they are all buying the well known names, it'll probably happen to every other stock onces the steam runs out and they get addicted to those easy gains. Rake in the gold old timers big wave of new money coming from all directions!

But seriously fundamentally people are crazy.

A lot of them riding the gold rush with institutions price action buying to secure future spots when things settle but when they start cutting holdings at whatever time they want a lot of new retail holders who hold dying companies getting artificially boosted from a irrational drop will get burned imo

Like I can’t understand why you would touch THL but hey folks you could have made 200 percent gains doing it !

[mp52]

Out on the bounce - not quite where I wanted to be (grrr DB!) but close enough. Good luck to holders!

[Longhaul]

Mayday...mayday... mayday...look like AIR plane is crashing!

Kinda seems like the flight path and trajectory was planned all along.

Even Sir John Key quoted in today's NZ Herald: "I was on Air New Zealand's board to the end of March, and as it's been publicly stated, it's a company that made $6 billion dollars in revenue a year, and it's literally gone to $500 million. I saw some stats saying they carried 900 people on the Friday before Easter, and the same time last year they carried 58,000, so for a company like that it's immensely difficult, because all your revenue disappears."

[dr_]

Direct Broker is running like a closing auction...LOL

[Longhaul]

I still get this mighty appealing green box in ASB Securities so it must be a pretty good deal at the moment! :drool:

11330

[Beagle]

Watch all the speculators try and find their parachutes and jump off this bird all at once.

[dompf]

What a mess there is a log jam on DB happening with people trying to exit.

[propertynewb]

Does Sharesies have an eject button?

[dr_]

What a mess there is a log jam on DB happening with people trying to exit.

Its only with AIR, the other queues are looking normal.

Pilot ejected without opening the emergency exit door :cool:

[thedrunkfish]

Its only with AIR, the other queues are looking normal.

What a train wreck

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCqe751tOAo

[Cadalac123]

Watch all the speculators try and find their parachutes and jump off this bird all at once.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCqe751tOAo


Can’t wait for all the posts on these forums about the great analyses about why all these companies spiked and all their future cash flow predictions from people who haven’t even seen a balance sheet before

Already have friends texting me about stocks that will “spike” next week based on their assumptions of what the company does despite having never invested in their life. Guess we should be thankful for all the new guru investors rising from this time

[thedrunkfish]

if your quickl enough it could be very profitable

[King1212]

Quick enough...like a ninja ...

[JeremyALD]

Can’t wait for all the posts on these forums about the great analyses about why all these companies spiked and all their future cash flow predictions from people who haven’t even seen a balance sheet before

Already have friends texting me about stocks that will “spike” next week based on their assumptions of what the company does despite having never invested in their life. Guess we should be thankful for all the new guru investors rising from this time

A few people I've spoken to investing couldn't even explain what NPAT is let alone cash flow lol

[mikeybycrikey]

I've just come back from a 30 minute walk and look what happened to AIR. Gravity really does exist.

[biker]

I hear via the grape vine that the CEO is still painting a very bleak picture and the idea of government ownership is not out of the question and in that configuration it would be a very different airline.

Ipso-facto there would be no current shareholders apart from the government.
Ipso- facto 80c looked quite expensive not to mention $1.60

IMHO

[nztx]

Mayday...mayday... mayday...look like AIR plane is crashing!

Good grief -- it is too .. who pulled the Escape Hatch early ?

137.5 metres to earth folks -- ready the trampolines for the next joy ride..

Losing altitude again 132.5 metres now

[Cyclical]

Sorry, I just need to save this one here for prosperity...

11331

[Scrunch]

Mayday...mayday... mayday...look like AIR plane is crashing!

Crazy price movements today, but great volatility if you were a day trader.
Closed yesterday at $1.31, opened slightly up on this, zoomed up to $1.61 in pretty much a straight line between 10am and 3pm to at one stage be up 23%.
Between 3pm and 4pm the price then collapsed back to $1.28 to be down 3%.
Who knows what will happen in the last hour of trading today!!

[Cyclical]

Who knows what will happen in the last hour of trading today!!

I don't know, some reasonable support at 1.10...

[King1212]

Next one will be VGL!

[Entrep]

Sorry, I just need to save this one here for prosperity...

11331

lol, nicely done

[peat]

eject eject - repeat eject

[nztx]

Looks like back to near day's start price on nzx site

okay 20 minutes delay - now $1.30 @ 20 mins ago delayed

one could have some fun dropping a lowball buy in the last minutes..

what a disaster - considering it was just north of $3 in early January 2020

[dr_]

Well, instro is playing. someone stuck over 400k buying volumes in morning and pushed it up until it reached to 158, then after 3:30pm put over 400k volumes in sales side and keep moving down to 128. Now the sell of over 400k volume removed. Enjoy the ride

[arc]

ouch
wonder how many newbies got fleeced... almost skinned at that rate

[nztx]

NZX really should do something about removing this sort of thing faster on their Co's pages when
the Div is long gone:

"Gross Div Yield 11.618%"

SKT & NZM were the same

[propertynewb]

ouch
wonder how many newbies got fleeced... almost skinned at that rate

Today was a really fun lesson for me. I sat there watching it flatline at 1.58 for a long time, thinking “now might be a good time to pull out” - 30mins later my order was filled at 1.30.

[GR8DAY]

Trading halt?

[nztx]

Nothing in NZX Announcements since 8 April

[samjaynz]

This is more exciting than a Tom Cruise action movie and more turbulent than my last flight to Wellington.

[nztx]

Now to encourage them all to look further than AIR - where there is less turbulence..

[nztx]

10 minutes to end of the flight (on NZX page) & back to roughly where the day started ..

[nztx]

On the landing approaches now -- 3 minutes to touch down @ a steady 130.5 (NZX Delayed time)

[winner69]

On the landing approaches now -- 3 minutes to touch down @ a steady 130.5 (NZX Delayed time)

Jeez nztx, could need an upgrade to premium (live depth)

Would you like to be on AIRplane and somebody told you don’t worry do the bracing on the seat in front of you routine, the plane crashed 20 minutes ago.

[JeremyALD]

Sorry, I just need to save this one here for prosperity...

11331

That was a short flight!

[nztx]

What's going on here ? -

Last updated: 17/4/2020, 4:48 pm

"High Bid $1.600
Low Offer $1.150"

[nztx]

Jeez nztx, could need an upgrade to premium (live depth)

Would you like to be on AIRplane and somebody told you don’t worry do the bracing on the seat in front of you routine, the plane crashed 20 minutes ago.

Hey come on .. not everyone is in the "Premium Seats"

that's why we need Premium folk onboard..

[Beagle]

What a complete circus this was today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324948

[Flugenbear]

What a complete circus this was today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324948

I wonder who all the clowns were....

[biker]

Sorry, I just need to save this one here for prosperity...

11331

A lovely play on words. However I’ll save it for both. Prosperity and posterity.

[kiora]

Visit Auckland
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325724

[BlackPeter]

Sorry, I just need to save this one here for prosperity...

11331

And don't they say the market is always right?

There must have been a heck of fundamental movements over the day ...

Some stocks start to remind me at crypto coins ...

[DoctorG]

I'm glad I came and read this before diving in and buying, having missed the trough.

[winner69]

Visit Auckland
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325724

That’s pretty cool video

[Timesurfer]

Morningstar have an accumulate with valuation of $2.10 ... but they do not sell their recommendations to the highest bidder?
Maybe they just have some inside info on how AIR is going to spring into profitability within the next ten years?

[Lego_Man]

FYI I tried to short Air New Zealand yesterday but couldn't as there is simply no borrow out there.

Price action was classic distribution...bid up by retail, then a big institutional dump to end the day down.

[Zaphod]

Morningstar have an accumulate with valuation of $2.10 ... but they do not sell their recommendations to the highest bidder?
Maybe they just have some inside info on how AIR is going to spring into profitability within the next ten years?

Great, not even double the SP in 10 years. Sounds like a deal. Where do I sign up?

[nztx]

FYI I tried to short Air New Zealand yesterday but couldn't as there is simply no borrow out there.

Price action was classic distribution...bid up by retail, then a big institutional dump to end the day down.



The big question will be whether they will try to repeat it again in the new week and which way things might go ..

Okay .. I'm a spectator to these antics now having jumped out fast when the last stop came off & no desire to buy.

Bounces elsewhere will more than likely recover the red

[winner69]

Good parking skills by Alaska

All a bit sad really

Photo by some dude royalscotking

[Baa_Baa]

Good parking skills by Alaska

All a bit sad really

Photo by some dude royalscotking

Parked up aeroplanes do not earn investors money. Unbelievable AIR SP, I fear a wave of doom and gloom is in the immediate future as reality unfolds and the Facebook punters get fleeced.

Smart money is imho sitting around the last meltdown, it was about 21 cents if I remember correctly.

[Beagle]

Yeap, I think they will lose over $1,000m in FY20 inclusive of redundancy and other extraordinary Covid 19 costs and at least the same again in the first half of FY21. By late February 2021 there will be so much red ink reported on the loss statement all the existing equity will have ben wiped out. The only question is when will they try and do the massive capital raise and at what price ?

I think as soon as there is some concrete positive medical trial results for an effective Covid 19 treatment they should go hard and go early straight after that before people wake up to the fact that they're probably going to be losing hundreds of millions in FY22 and probably FY23 as well. Probably not going to be until FY24 before AIR has any realistic chance of making money in my opinion.

Fixed costs are just incredibly high compared to the minuscule revenue.

[nztx]

The $900m Govt Dough will likely be gone as well - only capable of conversion into further share capital
or written off along with the extortionate Usuary rate interest accrued

If the SP slides dramatically - a share consolidation must be on the cards -- possibly the only way to do a Cap raise
at any respectable price not producing an avalanche of shares & then only if there is more favourable light at the end of the tunnel

Welcome to the Labour Govt's newly resurrected Basketcase Airline (flying sometimes) - folks..

[Beagle]

Yeap, I reckon the vast majority of the $900m loan will be drawn by the end of June 2020.

[Flugenbear]

Yeap, I reckon the vast majority of the $900m loan will be drawn by the end of June 2020.

By September it's all but gone.
They'll need the same amount again before then.
How they get it, who knows.
Perhaps someone will be brave enough to underwrite a 1:1 share issue.
Almost better to do it sooner than later while there's less beggars with their hands out.

[Arthur]

I would have thought the the Government could just underwrite any cash issue. They will end up with most of the company, but they need to ensure survival anyway. Not to say the the minority shareholders wouldn't suffer massive dilution, but who knows in this environment.

[bottomfeeder]

Have to agree that the government wants Air New Zealand to survive in some form, at just about any cost, but they have very little interest at ensuring external shareholders retain their ownership share intact, and I wouldnt expect any other outcome from any major shareholder in the same position. Paying for the current SP at this value is indeed an odds against gamble.

[kiora]

We ALL need Air NZ to thrive for cargo air freight as well as passenger service
How can this be done safely to ensure this happens?
This
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/18/new-rapid-covid-19-testing-kit-can-return-results-in-15-minutes-but-not-yet-available-in-australia
or C 19 passport showing Antibodies to C 19
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-onfido-immunity-passports-2020-4?r=AU&IR=T

PS I do not hold

[macduffy]

We all seem to agree that the survival of AIR is of national importance but that the company is "uninvestible", other than to the govt. What's driving the interest in the stock, other than the gambling instinct of some small investors and the smell of blood to PEP's?

[Cyclical]

Yeap, I think they will lose over $1,000m in FY20 inclusive of redundancy and other extraordinary Covid 19 costs and at least the same again in the first half of FY21. By late February 2021 there will be so much red ink reported on the loss statement all the existing equity will have ben wiped out. The only question is when will they try and do the massive capital raise and at what price ?

It's interesting isn't it. I think maybe they need to go through this process the hard way to get to the point where there is general acceptance (by the public, government, unions, staff etc) that they need to do a complete overhaul/reset and axe a much greater proportion of their workforce and slash remuneration of those remaining that are so highly paid currently. To my mind, they simply have no option if they are to emerge as a viable long term carrier at the end of all this...the only question is the timing of the slaughter. Meanwhile shareholder value will continue to be eroded at an enormous rate.

[Cyclical]

You make a good case. Perhaps this is one major reason why the original bailout was structured as a loan, so that they could let the process unfold creating greater understanding of the dire position and building support for the complete overhaul required.

Sounds like a cunning plan, doesn't it. I mean let's face it, if it was truly in the government's interests to keep AIR afloat in it's present format, would they really be lending at 9%?

[Lease]

I estimate they have less than 10% of their business left by mileage flown but still have the vast majority of their fixed overheads. At present the market does not appear to understand how quickly they are burning cash, (my estimate $300m a month) and is taking a very benign view of the duration of this virus and expecting a V shaped recovery in travel demand. I foresee how things are going to pan out, very differently.

My calculation is significantly lower. Take AIR 2019 annual accounts figures.

Labour: 1351. As they slash 1/3 workforce, so Labour cost will be 1351 X 2/3=900

Fuel: 1271, As AIR reduce international capacity by 85%, and domestic by 30%, fuel is mainly used in long-haul thus I weight 80% for international and 20% for domestic, thus fuel will be dropped by 85% X 80%+30% X 20%=75%. Fuel will be 1271 X (1-75%)=317

Maintenance: 399, As not many fleets on fly so maintenance cost should be down significantly, say down 50% thus maintenance=200

Aircraft Operations: 678, again not many fleets on fly, the cost will be down 50% as well, it is 339

Passenger Services:319. Capacity has been largely reduced, not much money need to spend on Passenger Services. Assume reduce same rate as fuel, thus Passenger Services=319 X 25%=80.

Sales and Marketing: 350, no longer need it, slash to 0.

Exchange Gain or loss: -53, ignore as fairly small amount. 0

Other Expenses: 290. Don't know what they are but cut 50% should be OK. 145

Rent: 245. In current situation, Airline companies and Airport are working together to find solution to benefit both in the long-term, similar to commercial landlord and tenant. I think rents reduce by 50% will be appropriate. so it is 120.

Finance cost: 79, this will increase. I put double to 160.

So the new total costs p.a are: 900+317+200+339+80+145+120+160=2262 p.a, that is $188m per month.

Any comments, Beagle?

[stoploss]

Lease have you got the min 250 mio they are down on their fuel hedge ?
Also , redundancy costs won’t be small ...,.

[BlackPeter]

My calculation is significantly lower. Take AIR 2019 annual accounts figures.

Labour: 1351. As they slash 1/3 workforce, so Labour cost will be 1351 X 2/3=900

Fuel: 1271, As AIR reduce international capacity by 85%, and domestic by 30%, fuel is mainly used in long-haul thus I weight 80% for international and 20% for domestic, thus fuel will be dropped by 85% X 80%+30% X 20%=75%. Fuel will be 1271 X (1-75%)=317

Maintenance: 399, As not many fleets on fly so maintenance cost should be down significantly, say down 50% thus maintenance=200

Aircraft Operations: 678, again not many fleets on fly, the cost will be down 50% as well, it is 339

Passenger Services:319. Capacity has been largely reduced, not much money need to spend on Passenger Services. Assume reduce same rate as fuel, thus Passenger Services=319 X 25%=80.

Sales and Marketing: 350, no longer need it, slash to 0.

Exchange Gain or loss: -53, ignore as fairly small amount. 0

Other Expenses: 290. Don't know what they are but cut 50% should be OK. 145

Rent: 245. In current situation, Airline companies and Airport are working together to find solution to benefit both in the long-term, similar to commercial landlord and tenant. I think rents reduce by 50% will be appropriate. so it is 120.

Finance cost: 79, this will increase. I put double to 160.

So the new total costs p.a are: 900+317+200+339+80+145+120+160=2262 p.a, that is $188m per month.

Any comments, Beagle?

Good start, however you might have overseen some cost. Some things which immediately would spring to mind are:

Cost for their fuel hedge. From memory they did hedge a significant amount of fuel they now don't need at a higher cost as it would cost now, which probably means that their fuel bill might continue as if they still would fly all these long haul routes, just with higher fuel costs.

Staff cost - did you consider all the redundancy payments they will need to pay for dropping 30% of their staff?

Parking cost ... not sure what the cost are at New Zealand airports, but some international airlines found that it is cheaper to keep their planes in the air than at the airport. Obviously - I assume that they get a discount for long term parking ... but still, I am pretty sure the cost are not Zero.

[Lease]

Lease have you got the min 250 mio they are down on their fuel hedge ?
Also , redundancy costs won’t be small ...,.

I put fuel at 317M>250M.

redundancy costs, yes. but you think how much? will put monthly cost over $300m?

[Lease]

Good start, however you might have overseen some cost. Some things which immediately would spring to mind are:

Cost for their fuel hedge. From memory they did hedge a significant amount of fuel they now don't need at a higher cost as it would cost now, which probably means that their fuel bill might continue as if they still would fly all these long haul routes, just with higher fuel costs.

Staff cost - did you consider all the redundancy payments they will need to pay for dropping 30% of their staff?

Parking cost ... not sure what the cost are at New Zealand airports, but some international airlines found that it is cheaper to keep their planes in the air than at the airport. Obviously - I assume that they get a discount for long term parking ... but still, I am pretty sure the cost are not Zero.

Parking should be part of rent, am I right?

[stoploss]

I put fuel at 317M>250M.

redundancy costs, yes. but you think how much? will put monthly cost over $300m?
I’m not sure but if it was a long haul pilot been there 20 years earning 300+ , the amount would be significant .
I think they are dreaming with 30% job cuts , looking at other airlines , will be over 50% sadly .

[BlackPeter]

Parking should be part of rent, am I right?

If it is, than the cost for rent will increase instead of going down. Air NZ never required during normal business that much space to park their planes, because they kept them in the air instead (as they should) ...

[Lease]

If it is, than the cost for rent will increase instead of going down. Air NZ never required during normal business that much space to park their planes, because they kept them in the air instead (as they should) ...

Well, as AIR NZ intends to be a smaller company, they should be selling their fleets at moment though sale price should be at large discount. This should give them some cash back to offset their increased parking if you are right.

Another thing you mentioned Cost for their fuel hedge. My understanding is they hedge at, say, $50 per barrel. That means if they go to buy oil, they have to pay $50 per barrel regardless current price only at around $20. But now they don't fly, which means they don't need to buy. So fuel bills should drop significantly.

[stoploss]

Well, as AIR NZ intends to be a smaller company, they should be selling their fleets at moment though sale price should be at large discount. This should give them some cash back to offset their increased parking if you are right.

Another thing you mentioned Cost for their fuel hedge. My understanding is they hedge at, say, $50 per barrel. That means if they go to buy oil, they have to pay $50 per barrel regardless current price only at around $20. But now they don't fly, which means they don't need to buy. So fuel bills should drop significantly.
They have effectively already purchased the Aviation Gas , using futures contracts , options , all sorts of structures .
If you go back on this thread you will see some of the maths and numbers from AIR NZ documentation .
It is not a case of its lower , we don’t need it so we don’t buy it ... they already have the obligation .
Bad thing is if they hedged 6 months usage , at the current and likely usage in the near term how long will it take to use that up ?

[Lease]

They have effectively already purchased the Aviation Gas , using futures contracts , options , all sorts of structures .
If you go back on this thread you will see some of the maths and numbers from AIR NZ documentation .
It is not a case of its lower , we don’t need it so we don’t buy it ... they already have the obligation .
Bad thing is if they hedged 6 months usage , at the current and likely usage in the near term how long will it take to use that up ?

OK, that's fine. But as you mentioned they got min $250m on their fuel hedge. My figure is more than that. So AIR can fulfill their obligation.

[BlackPeter]

Well, as AIR NZ intends to be a smaller company, they should be selling their fleets at moment though sale price should be at large discount. This should give them some cash back to offset their increased parking if you are right.



They well might need to do that (sell some of their planes). This might provide them with some cash (if they succeed finding an interested buyer, and this is a big IF), however - me shudders if I imagine the write offs they will need to take to balance their books afterwards. The losses they will need to take to get anybody to buy their planes in the current situation will be truly horrible.

Which airline on earth does currently need additional planes?

[Ecks]

Ding! AIR just hit a 75% increase on their March low, now at $1.4...surely the ceiling has been hit, reality of AIR's dire situation must set in soon!

I see it managed to cap at 160cps! The ceiling finally kicked in, market trend prediction photo attached
11349

[stoploss]

OK, that's fine. But as you mentioned they got min $250m on their fuel hedge. My figure is more than that. So AIR can fulfill their obligation.
The figure I mentioned , was off the top of my head from a previous post .
That amount is the mark to market figure for their loss on this position . So if they don’t need the product and the sell the contract , the loss at current prices is circa 250 mio .

[mp52]

Other thing about AvGas is that it rots - shelf-life of about 1yr or it's not going near an airliner. Practically I assume that means AirNZ needs to onsell futures contracts at a net loss or default on them? Neither sounds like a fun time. Not like they can fill a few jerry cans with the surplus and keep them in the garage.

[Flugenbear]

Other thing about AvGas is that it rots - shelf-life of about 1yr or it's not going near an airliner. Practically I assume that means AirNZ needs to onsell futures contracts at a net loss or default on them? Neither sounds like a fun time. Not like they can fill a few jerry cans with the surplus and keep them in the garage.
I might be wrong, but I believe it can be tested and as long as the parameters stack up it can be used.
Have done that before with JetA1.
Avgas is something a little different and not something ANZ uses.

[winner69]

My line trimmer doesn't like petrol thats more than six months old ... wont start but put some fresh stuff in it and vroom we are away first pull.

[nztx]

My line trimmer doesn't like petrol thats more than six months old ... wont start but put some fresh stuff in it and vroom we are away first pull.


Obviously not a problem at AIR - their line trimmer appears to be going hard out..
Lets hope it doesn't reach the AIR SP too soon or there could be tears

[Beagle]

So the new total costs p.a are: 900+317+200+339+80+145+120+160=2262 p.a, that is $188m per month.

Any comments, Beagle?

I understand Marcus Curly of UBS has estimated their operational cash burn at $211m per month. I haven't seen his detailed analysis so am not sure if their includes closing out their fully collared fuel position this quarter. If not, closing out that position could be around $40m per month this quarter in addition to his figure.

I won't get into a line by line because the two massive underdetermined cash burn figures on top of the above are :-
1. Redundancy costs. I think its fair to say as an absolute base case with redundancy costs there will be no reduction in their human resource cost this quarter and far more likely it will be considerably higher than normal. How much higher is very difficult to gauge.
2. What percentage of customers with prepaid tickets, (amounted to $1,380m as at 31 December 2019), are entitled too, and will demand a cash refund ?

Offsetting the above partially there will be a significant credit for the wage subsidy which if my memory is working this week was about $70m already received.

Its also important to note from a profit and loss perspective (although its a non cash item) depreciation of about $50m a month is on top of the above.

Conclusion:-
I remain comfortable that cash burn will be somewhere in the region of $300m per month for the April to June 2020 period all things considered. Regardless of where one estimates the monthly cash burn its extremely hard to see how they can survive through to the end of winter without calling on the Govt or shareholders for more money.

I estimate their cash position will run dangerously low at some point in June or early July 2020.

[Lease]

I understand Marcus Curly of UBS has estimated their operational cash burn at $211m per month. I haven't seen his detailed analysis so am not sure if their includes closing out their fully collared fuel position this quarter. If not, closing out that position could be around $40m per month this quarter in addition to his figure.

I won't get into a line by line because the two massive underdetermined cash burn figures on top of the above are :-
1. Redundancy costs. I think its fair to say as an absolute base case with redundancy costs there will be no reduction in their human resource cost this quarter and far more likely it will be considerably higher than normal. How much higher is very difficult to gauge.
2. What percentage of customers with prepaid tickets, (amounted to $1,380m as at 31 December 2019), are entitled too, and will demand a cash refund ?

Offsetting the above partially there will be a significant credit for the wage subsidy which if my memory is working this week was about $70m already received.

Its also important to note from a profit and loss perspective (although its a non cash item) depreciation of about $50m a month is on top of the above.

Conclusion:-
I remain comfortable that cash burn will be somewhere in the region of $300m per month for the April to June 2020 period all things considered. Regardless of where one estimates the monthly cash burn its extremely hard to see how they can survive through to the end of winter without calling on the Govt or shareholders for more money.

I estimate their cash position will run dangerously low at some point in June or early July 2020.

Thanks Beagle. I forgot wage subsidy, and that make me more optimistic.:)

[winner69]

Share price on fire again this morning

What’s the point of second guessing cash flows etc .....it’s all about punter sentiment

[Flugenbear]

Share price on fire again this morning

What’s the point of second guessing cash flows etc .....it’s all about punter sentiment
100% correct.
Whether it's misplaced or not doesn't matter right now.
I'm sure there's money to be made on this roller coaster but it's not for me. Even looking at long term, like many, I just don't see the value.

[bull....]

50+% gains since low lol this is insane good if you hold though

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Can someone explain to me why this is going up? I decided not to get into this as the whole travel shut down etc and have been sitting on the side but it just keeps on going...

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle. I forgot wage subsidy, and that make me more optimistic.:)

Net assets were $2,089m as at 31/12/19. There won't be much, if any, of that left by the end of 2020 in my opinion. Good luck, you and other shareholders are going to need it !

[dzhang1510]

I agree, I think its all just brand new investors. There are 1.4k buyers right now at 1.50ish, that is amazing.

[blackcap]

I agree, I think its all just brand new investors. There are 1.4k buyers right now at 1.50ish, that is amazing.

Yeah average parcel size on the bid at 1.53 is 436 shares. There are 454 bidders wanting about half a mill. Sharesies in action.

[Raz]

It's certainly an interesting watch...

[mayday]

11354
anyone reckons if there are something to do with strong NZD therefore pushing up NZX index lately?

[blackcap]

11354
anyone reckons if there are something to do with strong NZD therefore pushing up NZX index lately?

In theory though a strong Kiwi dollar will cause the index to decrease, a lower kiwi dollar will cause the index to increase. (all other things held constant)

[clip]

50+% gains since low lol this is insane good if you hold though

Plenty more than that, from 80c low to touch $1.60 i think last week is 100% gain

[Sideshow Bob]

I think the TAB & casinos are largely closed at the moment. Looks like they've all migrated to Sharsies to have a punt - literally that what it looks like some are doing.....reading the Facebook page is "enlightening"......:mellow:

[bull....]

Plenty more than that, from 80c low to touch $1.60 i think last week is 100% gain

yep insane , good trade is the only view i hold as there is no way to value it based on any certainty , so as others are pointing out looks like lots of gamblers punting on the future

[Blue Skies]

I saw a comment on another thread, along lines of CV will wipe our AIR's competition & therefore they'll have a monopoly!
Maybe that sort of thinking driving the SP speculation.

Excuse me while I scratch my head ;)

[Traderx]

Does CMC or IG markets allow shorting of AIR currently?

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Does CMC or IG markets allow shorting of AIR currently?

Yes - someone please tell me how I can short these shares! I only use DB at the moment.

[mp52]

I saw a comment on another thread, along lines of CV will wipe our AIR's competition & therefore they'll have a monopoly! Maybe that sort of thinking driving the SP speculation. Excuse me while I scratch my head ;)

Looking at social media, I think that's the kind of logic you're dealing with yeah. Oh... and an article I saw on a millennial/zoomer-targeted site on what Buffet is probably buying... Southwestern Airlines... so AIR must be good right!

[Cadalac123]

F*** you guys piss me off.

Here’s an idea ... how about you all give me your Sharesies Facebook group handles, so I can send them the list of arseholes who joined up purely to have a laugh at genuine members expense.

You all disgust me.





You're actually pretty strange yourself and I don't know why you even post here if that's your viewpoint.

Firstly, the posters here have been in the game for a long time and have experienced bad decisions and trading and realise how badly you can get burnt on random punt positions. The people on those facebook pages are literally just chasing money which is fine, but it comes at a risk since that's just gambling. A lot of people on there also brag and start thinking they know how to invest better than anyone else because they are up 50% on AIR, and actually insult/refuse to take advice. It's almost pointless even trying to have a conversation with most of them. I have some friends who are now giving people stock opinions based on price action alone which is quite hilarious and I don't even bother to correct them.

I recall you made a post elsewhere that the ST community should be helping the facebook page. Why on earth would that be an obligation? You can teach yourself everything about trading online independently. Furthermore, the majority of traders on facebook probably wont even want to open a book to learn about investing and that's not me being insulting but I can appreciate people have different priorities in life and trading will be low on the list for them - which is fine. I lost some money on some dumb decisions when I started and I think it's better I learnt that myself and didn't have someone out of the blue just start telling me what to do.

[Timesurfer]

Sounds Air (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/04/coronavirus-new-zealand-s-regional-flights-in-doubt-after-covid-19-shutdown.html) suggesting that once the wage subsidies are used up they will be gone.

[thedrunkfish]

F*** you guys piss me off.

Here’s an idea ... how about you all give me your Sharesies Facebook group handles, so I can send them the list of arseholes who joined up purely to have a laugh at genuine members expense.

You all disgust me.





What they are saying is right, if that hurts your feelings then that's your problem.

[justakiwi]

If having compassion, being kind, caring about people, and preferring to help them learn rather than ridicule them - makes me “pretty strange” - I am happy to own (and be proud of) your label. Not even remotely insulted by it.

I am not disputing the fact that there are a lot of struggling beginners in the Sharesies group, who clearly lack a basic understanding of what they are trying to do, but that doesn’t mean they are stupid and incapable of learning. I just don’t understand why people here feel the need to sit high on their 6 or 7 figure portfolio thrones, and ridicule them.

But hey, if being an arsehole to others gets your rocks off, there’s nothing I can say that will make a difference.


You're actually pretty strange yourself and I don't know why you even post here if that's your viewpoint.

Firstly, the posters here have been in the game for a long time and have experienced bad decisions and trading and realise how badly you can get burnt on random punt positions. The people on those facebook pages are literally just chasing money which is fine, but it comes at a risk since that's just gambling. A lot of people on there also brag and start thinking they know how to invest better than anyone else because they are up 50% on AIR, and actually insult/refuse to take advice. It's almost pointless even trying to have a conversation with most of them. I have some friends who are now giving people stock opinions based on price action alone which is quite hilarious and I don't even bother to correct them.

I recall you made a post elsewhere that the ST community should be helping the facebook page. Why on earth would that be an obligation? You can teach yourself everything about trading online independently. Furthermore, the majority of traders on facebook probably wont even want to open a book to learn about investing and that's not me being insulting but I can appreciate people have different priorities in life and trading will be low on the list for them - which is fine. I lost some money on some dumb decisions when I started and I think it's better I learnt that myself and didn't have someone out of the blue just start telling me what to do.

[Beagle]

For the record. A LOT of people have invested a LOT of their valuable time on here freely sharing their experiences, idea's research and analysis. Some of them have several decades of investing experience and have spent many thousands of hours of their time sharing for the benefit of others. Naturally there are limits to the amount of time these people have to give away for nothing. I think one on here has seriously overreacted to a light hearted jesting comment or two.

[bull....]

If having compassion, being kind, caring about people, and preferring to help them learn rather than ridicule them - makes me “pretty strange” - I am happy to own (and be proud of) your label. Not even remotely insulted by it.

I am not disputing the fact that there are a lot of struggling beginners in the Sharesies group, who clearly lack a basic understanding of what they are trying to do, but that doesn’t mean they are stupid and incapable of learning. I just don’t understand why people here feel the need to sit high on their 6 or 7 figure portfolio thrones, and ridicule them.

But hey, if being an arsehole to others gets your rocks off, there’s nothing I can say that will make a difference.

good to see you sticking up for yourself

[justakiwi]

Well instead of just ROFL at them, maybe you could try to help them understand the basics. In concise layman’s terms so they can get their head around it. Jumping in simply telling them it’s nuts to be buying AIR right now, teaches them nothing. They need to understand why you believe that. Everyone has to learn somewhere. As an investor yourself you know the value of investing. Why would you not want to help someone discover that and gain the benefit of your experience?


Well that’s an overreaction..

What do you propose people who are alarmed by the stupid gambling and speculation playing itself out through FB chat groups do then?

[justakiwi]

It’s not light hearted jesting if you mean it.

And yes, I am well aware and appreciate the help I have received here, but we are not talking about here. We are talking and the Sharesies Facebook group.


I think one on here has seriously overreacted to a light hearted jesting comment or two.

[steveb]

we are all entitled to an opinion it's just a matter of how you express yourself.Some people just seem to have this innate ability to rub people up the wrong way.
Remember on this forum you can simply add people to your ignore list,it might help the blood pressure.

[Flugenbear]

Meanwhile back on the NZX, AIR seems to be holding up nicely. I really just don't understand the logic. Obviously a lot of people are reading a different book to me.
I have a feeling I know how it ends, but only time will tell.

[samjaynz]

Sounds Air (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/04/coronavirus-new-zealand-s-regional-flights-in-doubt-after-covid-19-shutdown.html) suggesting that once the wage subsidies are used up they will be gone.

That's sad news.

Have used Sounds Air quite a bit recently for work (for some more obscure routes e.g. flying to Blenheim) and always enjoyed it.

My most memorable flight is coming home from Blenheim on Sounds Air, and it being pitch black at night, peeing down with rain so hard that the pilot would put the wing lights on and you couldn't see anything other than sheets of water. Was a real experience for someone who loves planes.

[dameofdiv]

dear all, i'm been reading posts here for awhile and other than privately thanking a few veterans occasionally here and there for sharing their valuable insights, I haven't been posting much.
But as I know I'm a newbie, I rather read comments and learn than commenting. It is my responsibility to "find out more" before investing, not others. To be fair, I believe there are enough information here as to why AIR is not a good investment. But it is up to individuals whether they choose to follow or not. All I'm saying is be grateful when others have shared their opinions, and at the same time, everyone needs to do your own research.

[mp52]

I just don’t understand why people here feel the need to sit high on their 6 or 7 figure portfolio thrones, and ridicule them...

I try and stay out of low signal-to-noise exchanges on here but as someone who's got a lot of benefit from this forum c.f other online sources I need to say something in defence of posters here. Yes, there's a bit of ribbing, baiting and the odd p*$$ing contest but there's also a lot of experience and analysis which, if you might not agree with it, can challenge your opinion and open avenues for further self-education. I think it's incorrect to frame your annoyance as old fat-cats splitting their sides at greenhorns losing their shirts. Some folks here will have got into this game as youngsters (or not so youngsters) full of p*$$ and vinegar and been burnt a few times and learned something from it. There really is no substitute for self-education in this game. I read a post not minutes ago on social media to the effect "well good to know a few others are thinking like me - means we can't be wrong." It takes some time, life experience and humility to understand the psychology and flawed reasoning behind those kind of beliefs. I would say fostering self-awareness and being able to question your own decisions as objectively as you can and detach from them emotionally (not always easy) are the foundation of all learning in this game. FB and other platforms are, by design, built to elicit the very opposite of this. Which is all to say, ST is not without its pitfalls but there's an authenticity and range of views maintained here that, by my observation is rare in online investment communities.

[Blue Skies]

Good explanation in todays Stuff.co.nz about how in the event AIR are unable to repay their Govt loan, private shareholders could/will be wiped out completely.
At current SP the govt needing to claim the remaining 48% they don't already own to cover the bail out loan.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121073616/tough-talks-are-taking-place-behind-treasury-doors-if-air-nz-bailout-set-the-precedent

[Jaa]

Sounds Air (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/04/coronavirus-new-zealand-s-regional-flights-in-doubt-after-covid-19-shutdown.html) suggesting that once the wage subsidies are used up they will be gone.

Thanks for this Timesurfer.

Sounds like an interesting precedent, the government paying to keep some air links open for freight and essential personnel. As important as the Chathams and Great Barrier Island are, the vast majority of this work is being done by Air NZ not just between two slightly larger islands but from those islands to the world.

Surely commercial subsidies have to be applied evenly to all airlines allocated by the number of revenue passenger miles? Australia has just announced effectively this.

[winner69]

Good explanation in todays Stuff.co.nz about how in the event AIR are unable to repay their Govt loan, private shareholders could/will be wiped out completely.
At current SP the govt needing to claim the remaining 48% they don't already own to cover the bail out loan.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121073616/tough-talks-are-taking-place-behind-treasury-doors-if-air-nz-bailout-set-the-precedent

I’d say that wipeout is inevitable ...or at best a major haircut.

But today’s punters see it differently and probably aren’t in for the medium term anyway.

[Beagle]

Patterson said it now seemed clear that the impact of the coronavirus on Air New Zealand was going to be much worse than when the deal was signed.

I couldn't agree more. Some of the young ones won't be told, they'll have to learn the hard way just like a lot of the highly experienced investors on here have done.

[levin123]

While we're at it... join the "share trading australia asx stock trading" FB group and you will see all of this nonsense playing out in real time

14k members, some are clever people and offer great advice but the vast majority appear to know very little but have the confidence of Buffett, and dangerously convince other people to follow them.

Things I've seen recently...

- Guys boasting about making 1000% gains buying covid exposed shares as they go up and down, and anyone who is buying blue chips right now is "an idiot", that guy got 20+ likes
- People throwing thousands into the market on broker reports alone (and many recs haven't been updated post covid)
- Upramping and a lot of people buying (and convincing others to buy) all sorts of trash penny stocks
- People buying AIR (NOW?!?) on the ASX because "Its the safest bet out there, the nz govt won't let it go bust, it's the only airline afterall!"
- Buying leveraged reverse etfs without understanding what they actually are, just cause someone told them to do it

Fun times! On occasion I try and offer a sound sensible opinion contrary to a lot of this crap but I've given up now

[bottomfeeder]

I’d say that wipeout is inevitable ...or at best a major haircut.

But today’s punters see it differently and probably aren’t in for the medium term anyway.

I wish I knew how to go about shorting this one now. Wait till tomorrow when the bottom falls out of the market.

[samjaynz]

While we're at it... join the "share trading australia asx stock trading" FB group and you will see all of this nonsense playing out in real time

14k members, some are clever people and offer great advice but the vast majority appear to know very little but have the confidence of Buffett, and dangerously convince other people to follow them.

Things I've seen recently...

- Guys boasting about making 1000% gains buying covid exposed shares as they go up and down, and anyone who is buying blue chips right now is "an idiot", that guy got 20+ likes
- People throwing thousands into the market on broker reports alone (and many recs haven't been updated post covid)
- Upramping and a lot of people buying (and convincing others to buy) all sorts of trash penny stocks
- People buying AIR (NOW?!?) on the ASX because "Its the safest bet out there, the nz govt won't let it go bust, it's the only airline afterall!"
- Buying leveraged reverse etfs without understanding what they actually are, just cause someone told them to do it

Fun times! On occasion I try and offer a sound sensible opinion contrary to a lot of this crap but I've given up now

Reminds me of when crypto was booming in late 2017 - Facebook groups full of people who were on "moon missions" for their Lambo, and who thought the gravy train would never end.

Probably the same people who've given up now that crypto is not as exciting, and have now moved on to shares instead.

If any of you ever want a fun read, check out "wall street bets" on Reddit - it's the Holy Grail of this kind of craziness.

[levin123]

Reminds me of when crypto was booming in late 2017 - Facebook groups full of people who were on "moon missions" for their Lambo, and who thought the gravy train would never end.

Probably the same people who've given up now that crypto is not as exciting, and have now moved on to shares instead.

If any of you ever want a fun read, check out "wall street bets" on Reddit - it's the Holy Grail of this kind of craziness.

My fav WSB hall of fame moments are probably the guy who lost $4m (incl f&f money) trading VIX and the guy who made what something like $10m on Tesla puts

[Cyclical]

I try and stay out of low signal-to-noise exchanges on here but as someone who's got a lot of benefit from this forum c.f other online sources I need to say something in defence of posters here. Yes, there's a bit of ribbing, baiting and the odd p*$$ing contest but there's also a lot of experience and analysis which, if you might not agree with it, can challenge your opinion and open avenues for further self-education. I think it's incorrect to frame your annoyance as old fat-cats splitting their sides at greenhorns losing their shirts. Some folks here will have got into this game as youngsters (or not so youngsters) full of p*$$ and vinegar and been burnt a few times and learned something from it. There really is no substitute for self-education in this game. I read a post not minutes ago on social media to the effect "well good to know a few others are thinking like me - means we can't be wrong." It takes some time, life experience and humility to understand the psychology and flawed reasoning behind those kind of beliefs. I would say fostering self-awareness and being able to question your own decisions as objectively as you can and detach from them emotionally (not always easy) are the foundation of all learning in this game. FB and other platforms are, by design, built to elicit the very opposite of this. Which is all to say, ST is not without its pitfalls but there's an authenticity and range of views maintained here that, by my observation is rare in online investment communities.

Good post, I couldn't agree more.

[traineeinvestor]

While we're at it... join the "share trading australia asx stock trading" FB group and you will see all of this nonsense playing out in real time

14k members, some are clever people and offer great advice but the vast majority appear to know very little but have the confidence of Buffett, and dangerously convince other people to follow them.

Things I've seen recently...

- Guys boasting about making 1000% gains buying covid exposed shares as they go up and down, and anyone who is buying blue chips right now is "an idiot", that guy got 20+ likes
- People throwing thousands into the market on broker reports alone (and many recs haven't been updated post covid)
- Upramping and a lot of people buying (and convincing others to buy) all sorts of trash penny stocks
- People buying AIR (NOW?!?) on the ASX because "Its the safest bet out there, the nz govt won't let it go bust, it's the only airline afterall!"
- Buying leveraged reverse etfs without understanding what they actually are, just cause someone told them to do it

Fun times! On occasion I try and offer a sound sensible opinion contrary to a lot of this crap but I've given up now

Highly entertaining stuff. Showing my age, but the sorts of things being posted there reminds me of:

1. Des Guthrie's TV advertisements after the 1987 sharemarket crash;

2. the inch-thick offer document for Equitcorp's capital raising in late 1987;

3. the Australian broker who described Rothwells as "blue chip;"

and a whole lot of other lessons from the trenches.

[Timesurfer]

Reminds me of when crypto was booming in late 2017 - Facebook groups full of people who were on "moon missions" for their Lambo, and who thought the gravy train would never end.

Probably the same people who've given up now that crypto is not as exciting, and have now moved on to shares instead.

If any of you ever want a fun read, check out "wall street bets" on Reddit - it's the Holy Grail of this kind of craziness.

I see property “gurus” admitting they are relatively new to shares but full of great advice and obviously looking to build another following of sheep to the slaughter.

But level 4 extensions .. no idea of how long level 3 will be ... and AIR still climbing. All aboard.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

I see property “gurus” admitting they are relatively new to shares but full of great advice and obviously looking to build another following of sheep to the slaughter.

But level 4 extensions .. no idea of how long level 3 will be ... and AIR still climbing. All aboard.

Choo choo toot toot

[winner69]

Seems Virgin Aust going into administration

[nztx]

Seems Virgin Aust going into administration

it seems likely -

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/virgin-australia-pilot-calls-for-lifeline-against-insolvency/12165550

"Virgin Australia pilot calls for a last-minute lifeline as company approaches insolvency"

[samjaynz]

My fav WSB hall of fame moments are probably the guy who lost $4m (incl f&f money) trading VIX and the guy who made what something like $10m on Tesla puts

Was the first one the guy who basically exposed a big flaw in Robin Hood risk management? Or am I thinking of the wrong one:

https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/ai07ft/whats_going_on_with_rwallstreetbets_and_1r0nyman/

[Snow Leopard]

Seems Virgin Aust going into administration

I have been informed that it has indeed happened, although I have no confirmation of this.

Never invest in Airlines :p

[kiora]

I have been informed that it has indeed happened, although I have no confirmation of this.

Never invest in Airlines :p

What about Helicopters?

[nztx]

Behind the Paywall (pasted from Google search):

Virgin Australia: Airline faces voluntary administration www.theaustralian.com.au › business › dataroom

25 mins ago - Virgin's Australia has been placed into voluntary administration after a board meeting on Monday failed to secure a white knight backer.

[Balance]

Behind the Paywall (pasted from Google search):

Virgin Australia: Airline faces voluntary administration www.theaustralian.com.au › business › dataroom

25 mins ago - Virgin's Australia has been placed into voluntary administration after a board meeting on Monday failed to secure a white knight backer.

Karma.

Remember how Richard Brandon tore up a make-up cheque from Air NZ to buy Virgin to access the Oz domestic market when Ansett got into trouble?

Now Oz will have just the one airline. Air fares sure will be going up!

[dompf]

Karma.

Remember how Richard Brandon tore up a make-up cheque from Air NZ to buy Virgin to access the Oz domestic market when Ansett got into trouble?

Now Oz will have just the one airline. Air fares sure will be going up!

The articles are reading like Morrison’s government wants another competing airline in Aus but other businesses take priority and they are waiting to see where all the chips end up.

might not be the last we see of Virgin (and I hope not) it’s always good to not have a monopoly in business.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

The articles are reading like Morrison’s government wants another competing airline in Aus but other businesses take priority and they are waiting to see where all the chips end up.

might not be the last we see of Virgin (and I hope not) it’s always good to not have a monopoly in business.

*shrug* with the direction Qantas are going, just like Air NZ it will be a government owned monopoly - air travel as a public transport. I can see worse outcomes.

[Marilyn Munroe]

might not be the last we see of Virgin (and I hope not) it’s always good to not have a monopoly in business.

If they could see some future advantage it represents an opportunity for Lee Kuan Yew Airlines to eliminate their fellow shareholders from the register for a knock down price.

Any of their fellow shareholders seeking to raise money to increase their stake in a bust airline would have their financier instructing a flunkey to release the hounds.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Richard Branson of Virgin is trying to raise cash to shore up Virgin Atlantic. A completely different company to the under arm namesake.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8236395/Richard-Branson-warns-Virgin-Atlantic-collapse-without-500m-taxpayer-funded-bailout.html

[silverblizzard888]

Its official Virgin Australia in voluntary administration

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-live-updates-australia-virgin-voluntary-administration-airlines-ruby-princess-sued-family-donald-trump-us-covid-19/e5b9073b-6f04-4649-a687-4efc460bdd1e

Wonder if it sends people running or buying AIR today

[Beagle]

Karma.

Remember how Richard Brandon tore up a make-up cheque from Air NZ to buy Virgin to access the Oz domestic market when Ansett got into trouble?

Now Oz will have just the one airline. Air fares sure will be going up!

IIRC Virgin pays some sort of royalty off the top as a percentage of sales to Richard Branson for the use of the Virgin name. This could possibly be one of the reasons the company always struggled to make a profit even in the good times.

I am sure that in due course out of the ashes of Virgin will emerge a low cost carrier with no aforementioned royalty, only required aircraft brought at fire sale prices and crew prepared to work for far more reasonable wages.

[winner69]

Market still loves AIR though

[Sideshow Bob]

Market still loves AIR though

Sharsies……!!

[bottomfeeder]

Yes I've given up being rational on some companies on the NZX. As long as I stay away, that is what counts.

[mondograss]

When you're in love with a stock it's easy to spin any news the way you want to. No doubt in their eyes the collapse of Virgin means less competition and the decrease in fuel costs means costs are cheaper. I don't think they're considering the full implications of either.

[Cyclical]

Its official Virgin Australia in voluntary administration

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-live-updates-australia-virgin-voluntary-administration-airlines-ruby-princess-sued-family-donald-trump-us-covid-19/e5b9073b-6f04-4649-a687-4efc460bdd1e

Wonder if it sends people running or buying AIR today

Funny name for a company that's completely rooted.

[samjaynz]

Its official Virgin Australia in voluntary administration

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-live-updates-australia-virgin-voluntary-administration-airlines-ruby-princess-sued-family-donald-trump-us-covid-19/e5b9073b-6f04-4649-a687-4efc460bdd1e

Wonder if it sends people running or buying AIR today

Hope my Aussie mates who were banking all their velocity points cashed them out recently ... somehow I suspect not.

I was reading the AusFinance section of Reddit last night and amazing how many people talk about 'saving their points for retirement' etc. Surely they can't be serious?

I should have kept my kids sport McDonalds vouchers as a nest egg!!!

[Beagle]

Funny name for a company that's completely rooted.

:lol: :lol:

[silverblizzard888]

Funny name for a company that's completely rooted.
The irony of the name and the situation, I don’t think they were being that conservative after all.


Hope my Aussie mates who were banking all their velocity points cashed them out recently ... somehow I suspect not.

I was reading the AusFinance section of Reddit last night and amazing how many people talk about 'saving their points for retirement' etc. Surely they can't be serious?

I should have kept my kids sport McDonalds vouchers as a nest egg!!!

There may be life for the points after, if someone takes it over, but either way any inflationary advice would be to spend anything that doesn’t keep up with inflation.

[samjaynz]

There may be life for the points after, if someone takes it over, but either way any inflationary advice would be to spend anything that doesn’t keep up with inflation.

Agreed - I ditched the vast majority of my Air NZ ones a couple of weeks before the lockdown (managed to get birthday presents, Christmas presents, some nice wine and a few Mitre 10 vouchers). Figure same could happen here if the situation is as bad as many think for Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Timely reminder to use up those airpoints folks !

[Marilyn Munroe]

Airlines have a long and glorious history of screwing over their air points members. I don't know if Cullen Airlines is any better or worse than others cause I have never had any points from them.

Perhaps this upheaval will cause some walk on freight to stop regarding their choice of airline as a reflection on their philosophy of life.

Just go for the airline whose cabin crew are heavy handed when pouring the booze.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[levin123]

Lol! Branson considering using a Caribbean island as security to prop up Virgin

Not many people can say that..

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/richard-branson-offers-up-his-island-in-virgin-bailout-20200421-p54lmm

[steveb]

And of course if possible spend those airpoints on NZ made

[winner69]

Big ‘spike’ in bookings yesterday

Cool

AIR share price over 2 bucks soon


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121153817/lockdown-announcement-gives-air-new-zealand-a-bookings-bounce

[Sideshow Bob]

Funny name for a company that's completely rooted.

Bahahahaha! Love it!! :t_up:

[macduffy]

Big ‘spike’ in bookings yesterday

Cool

AIR share price over 2 bucks soon


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121153817/lockdown-announcement-gives-air-new-zealand-a-bookings-bounce

They're trying hard, at least. AIR Revenue Officer announces a big spike in bookings; company spokeswoman confirms it!

[nztx]

They're trying hard, at least. AIR Revenue Officer announces a big spike in bookings; company spokeswoman confirms it!

We can't have our own Virgin fall over - can we now ..

Another black hole on the local horizon may be the undoing of Robertson
& the 'Too Little Too Late with many smiles" Spin Fairy, even if the AIR
job in reality is totally wooted & resembles a hopeless insolvent basketcase..

[Sideshow Bob]

They're trying hard, at least. AIR Revenue Officer announces a big spike in bookings; company spokeswoman confirms it!

If bookings doubled, then still less than 10% of usual revenue.....:scared:

[stoploss]

If bookings doubled, then still less than 10% of usual revenue.....:scared:
People will also be booking with the existing credits they have with AIR NZ , so maybe not even any new income ....

[peat]

Funny name for a company that's completely rooted.

The name Virgin suddenly made me think about Branson's proximity with Jeffrey Epstein in the Carribean islands they both own. Gulp. No not creepy, not creepy at all.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326338 How Covid 19 brought the aerospace industry down to earth.

Interesting times for the industry as a whole

[peat]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326338 How Covid 19 brought the aerospace industry down to earth.

Interesting times for the industry as a whole

Bubbles of debt with wings !! Ha.

"Out of the world's nearly 1,000 airlines a lot are just bubbles of debt with wings said Brian Burridge, chief executive of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

The other thing this article reminds us about (than the aerospace industry) is the interconnectedness of everything and how it all the pain travels through the various links to affect heaps more people than is originally envisaged. I call them tentacles as they reach out everywhere. And when the news is bad the snowball seems to grow and grow until it crushes all the saplings and only the sturdiest remain.

[nztx]

Bubbles of debt with wings !! Ha.

"Out of the world's nearly 1,000 airlines a lot are just bubbles of debt with wings said Brian Burridge, chief executive of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

The other thing this article reminds us about (than the aerospace industry) is the interconnectedness of everything and how it all the pain travels through the various links to affect heaps more people than is originally envisaged. I call them tentacles as they reach out everywhere. And when the news is bad the snowball seems to grow and grow until it crushes all the saplings and only the sturdiest remain.



Hahaha ... "Bubbles of Debt with Wings" .. priceless :)

[arc]

Bubbles of debt with wings !! Ha.

"Out of the world's nearly 1,000 airlines a lot are just bubbles of debt with wings said Brian Burridge, chief executive of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

The other thing this article reminds us about (than the aerospace industry) is the interconnectdness of everything and how it all the pain travels through the various links to affect heaps more people than is originally envisaged. I call them tentacles as they reach out everywhere. And when the news is bad the snowball seems to grow and grow until it crushes all the saplings and only the sturdiest remain.

Yes, thats Chaos Theory in action

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/air-nz-silent-about-covid-19-cases-as-staff-fears-grow-over-quarantine-exemption/ar-BB12XsWK?ocid=spartandhp

AIR refuses to disclose the number of staff with Covid 19 :eek2:

How are the public supposed to have confidence flying with them again ?

There has been talk of a class action by Qantas staff alleging Qantas engaged in reckless endangerment through lack of provision of PPE gear to staff.

It makes me incredibly nervous when a company engages in deliberate concealment of relevant information. I imagine it makes AIR staff very nervous too ! I won't be flying in the foreseeable future.

[dobby41]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/air-nz-silent-about-covid-19-cases-as-staff-fears-grow-over-quarantine-exemption/ar-BB12XsWK?ocid=spartandhp

AIR refuses to disclose the number of staff with Covid 19 :eek2:

How are the public supposed to have confidence flying with them again ?

There has been talk of a class action by Qantas staff alleging Qantas engaged in reckless endangerment through lack of provision of PPE gear to staff.

It makes me incredibly nervous when a company engages in deliberate concealment of relevant information. I imagine it makes AIR staff very nervous too ! I won't be flying in the foreseeable future.

Is it relevant?
So long as they don't put crew who are positive in the front line you can have total confidence.
If they said it was 11 people how would that help?

[Beagle]

Is it relevant?
So long as they don't put crew who are positive in the front line you can have total confidence.
If they said it was 11 people how would that help?
The crew member who attended the Bluff wedding didn't think he had an issue and now there's about 100 people paying the price. Absolutely its relevant !
How many other Kiwi's are at risk because irresponsible crew are playing Russian roulette with people's lives ?
Why are AIR deliberately concealing this information ? Could it be because they don't want the public to understand the risks in flying domestically or on what international routes remain ?

This smells worse than 7 day old fish left in the sun to rot.

[Raz]

The crew member who attended the Bluff wedding didn't think he had an issue and now there's about 100 people paying the price. Absolutely its relevant !
How many other Kiwi's are at risk because irresponsible crew are playing Russian roulette with people's lives ?
Why are AIR deliberately concealing this information ? Could it be because they don't want the public to understand the risks in flying domestically or on what international routes remain ?

This smells worse than 7 day old fish left in the sun to rot.

Well they initially started releasing the information then stopped... one assumes when it really started to get bad...

[dobby41]

The crew member who attended the Bluff wedding didn't think he had an issue and now there's about 100 people paying the price. Absolutely its relevant !
How many other Kiwi's are at risk because irresponsible crew are playing Russian roulette with people's lives ?
Why are AIR deliberately concealing this information ? Could it be because they don't want the public to understand the risks in flying domestically or on what international routes remain ?

This smells worse than 7 day old fish left in the sun to rot.

And knowing the number is 7 or 11 or 50 would make no difference to that - if they don't think a crew member has it then it won't be reported.

[Raz]

And knowing the number is 7 or 11 or 50 would make no difference to that - if they don't think a crew member has it then it won't be reported.

The issues is all about OSH...

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

No point in stopping at AIR though, Beagle...
How many bus drivers have been infected?
How many shopping centre staff have been infected?
How many health care workers have been infected? (this one is partially being shared)

I can see why this info isn't being specifically shared because it doesn't necessarily add value if the contact tracing is happening / has happened - what purpose does it serve other than to create fear in these critical services? I am comfortable with the approach, but I do think that the international air staff should all have been, and continue to be, subject to self isolation until 2 weeks after their last travel (just like every other international traveller)

[macduffy]

I think that dobby's right. It's not the number of crew who are/were positive Covid-19 that matters, it's the assurance that no such people are being put in potential contact with passengers, that is the issue.

[mikeybycrikey]

Additionally, I would assume that under the current restrictions, international air crew might become infected and they might pass it on to passengers... but those passengers will go straight into quarantine and shouldn't pass it on to anyone else. So you're unlikely to get a repeat of the Bluff situation at least not anytime soon.

There is always going to be risk here. It's not about eliminating risk but about reducing it as much as possible.

Domestic air crew shouldn't be becoming infected. I assume you're not planning on leaving the country any time soon so flying domestically shouldn't be a problem.

[Cyclical]

I was shocked at how complacent Air NZ were leading up to the lockdown. My wife had to get from New Plymouth to Christchurch in a hurry on the 20th or March. I assumed they'd be spacing all the passengers out as best they could...the plane was maybe half full (half empty is probably more appropriate), but no, they had all the passengers seated around the centre of the plane for balancing purposes like they do. No masks or hand sanitisers to be seen anywhere...too laid back Kiwi.

[Beagle]

Well they initially started releasing the information then stopped... one assumes when it really started to get bad...

That's how I see it.

[steveb]

I wonder if AIR have enough crew that have had the virus and recovered,to man a flight to a high risk area?

[Chinesekiwi]

The contact tracing internally at Air NZ is very effective and the medical team is well led by doctors/nurses there - I can tell you the number of infected crew is marginally above the 8 we already know of publicly. It is by no means out of control or a scary number.

All Charter crew are self isolated for 14 days - including the upcoming India Repatriation flights (where community transmission is an unknown) and all Los Angeles services (where community transmission is out of control). Vancouver charter crew were not required to self isolate back in NZ as Vancouver has extremely low levels of community transmission and the science I suppose supported that - though perhaps as a precaution it should have been imposed anyway.

Sadly the Bluff incident was a case of an asymptomatic tested person unknowingly infecting others. The person via tracing is known to not have contracted the virus at the workplace. This information wasn't made public.

Air NZ medical team have extensively traced each crew case and to date know that the person either unwittingly has gone to work untested and infected or has indeed gotten it on a layover. There is no case yet where onbaord transmission to or from crew has been found - via tracing. Still I do agree they could have done a better job with passenger spacing and the like.

The Vancouver situation is related to the behaviour of a particular individual and has caused a hell of a ruckus.

[Leftfield]

The contact tracing internally at Air NZ is very effective and the medical team is well led by doctors/nurses there - I can tell you the number of infected crew is marginally above the 8 we already know of publicly. It is by no means out of control or a scary number.

All Charter crew are self isolated for 14 days - including the upcoming India Repatriation flights (where community transmission is an unknown) and all Los Angeles services (where community transmission is out of control). Vancouver charter crew were not required to self isolate back in NZ as Vancouver has extremely low levels of community transmission and the science I suppose supported that - though perhaps as a precaution it should have been imposed anyway.

Sadly the Bluff incident was a case of an asymptomatic tested person unknowingly infecting others. The person via tracing is known to not have contracted the virus at the workplace. This information wasn't made public.

Air NZ medical team have extensively traced each crew case and to date know that the person either unwittingly has gone to work untested and infected or has indeed gotten it on a layover. There is no case yet where onbaord transmission to or from crew has been found - via tracing. Still I do agree they could have done a better job with passenger spacing and the like.

The Vancouver situation is related to the behaviour of a particular individual and has caused a hell of a ruckus.

Good helpful post - Thank you.

[Cyclical]

The contact tracing internally at Air NZ is very effective and the medical team is well led by doctors/nurses there - I can tell you the number of infected crew is marginally above the 8 we already know of publicly. It is by no means out of control or a scary number.

All Charter crew are self isolated for 14 days - including the upcoming India Repatriation flights (where community transmission is an unknown) and all Los Angeles services (where community transmission is out of control). Vancouver charter crew were not required to self isolate back in NZ as Vancouver has extremely low levels of community transmission and the science I suppose supported that - though perhaps as a precaution it should have been imposed anyway.

Sadly the Bluff incident was a case of an asymptomatic tested person unknowingly infecting others. The person via tracing is known to not have contracted the virus at the workplace. This information wasn't made public.

Air NZ medical team have extensively traced each crew case and to date know that the person either unwittingly has gone to work untested and infected or has indeed gotten it on a layover. There is no case yet where onbaord transmission to or from crew has been found - via tracing. Still I do agree they could have done a better job with passenger spacing and the like.

The Vancouver situation is related to the behaviour of a particular individual and has caused a hell of a ruckus.


Good helpful post - Thank you.

That is a good post, thanks. Hopefully it doesn't cause a ruckus at Air NZ.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326682
"Very light (polite description) domestic essential worker travel today on @FlyAirNZ. Only 175 passengers booked across 14 flights. Will check the statistics to establish whether this is a (bad) record."

Average load just 12.5 passengers per plane, assuming they all show up for their flights. Should be no problem maintaining 2 metres distance from crew or other passengers.

[Chinesekiwi]

I stand corrected - 35 crew COVID positive.

Much anger inside the company that this information was withheld for so long.

[Beagle]

I stand corrected - 35 crew COVID positive.

Much anger inside the company that this information was withheld for so long.

The public have a right to be angry as well after all the "corporate spin" from AIR that its perfectly safe to travel on aircraft and the planes have hospital grade filtration systems. Thankfully the public are well aware the best place to avoid at this time (unless you absolutely have no other alternative) is hospital, onboard an aircraft or in a doctor's waiting room, all about as bad as each other.

I hope the idiot who attended the wedding at Bluff already sneezing and a bit sick and the other person in Vancouver engaging in reckless endangerment of others have already been fired.

[Chinesekiwi]

Rarely is a Pilot fired sadly.

[Raz]

Not sure what Air NZ are doing but they just called my mother-in-law (US citizen living in USA) and told her the flight she had booked to come to NZ in a couple weeks is still on and that she could come as long as she isolated for 2 weeks.

Whats going on? laid off all their staff that knew what they were doing and left with ones that are clueless?

They still have flights, especially via LAX, they will honour flights still going and happy for you mother-in-law to come along..no issue if they she decides to cancel or no show..they keep the fare:)

[Poet]

They still have flights, especially via LAX, they will honour flights still going and happy for you mother-in-law to come along..no issue if they she decides to cancel or no show..they keep the fare:)

Yes, exactly Raz. Totally unconscionable behaviour,. And if they don't run the flight, cause its not worthwhile to them to do so, then the abandoned passenger gets a voucher that may or may not be worth jacks*** in the future.

Good on the government for doing them over in their time of need.

[Snow Leopard]

Typical Auckland Weather:

https://d3lcr32v2pp4l1.cloudfront.net/Pictures/980x653fitpad[0]/5/0/3/69503_5anzparkedcairnewzealand_992462.jpg

from Flight Global (https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/grounded-commercial-aircraft-around-the-world-in-pictures/138014.article)

[blackcap]

/?
Yeah, but my point is, she cannot enter NZ, so why is airNZ calling her telling her she can?

.

Possibly because AIR NZ do not know that she is a US citizen? Are you sure they told her that she can enter NZ, or did they tell her that her flight is still on and she can still fly? There is a difference. But on the balance of things AIR should have asked more questions and provided more information.

If I were a NZ citizen in the States and had an AIR flight booked I would welcome AIR calling to tell me that the flight is still on and that I can still be repatriated to NZ. Saves me the hassle of trying to get through which is difficult in these times potentially.

[Zaphod]

Air NZ to close Nelson maintenance facility

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121193970/air-new-zealand-proposal-to-close-nelson-heavy-maintenance-facility-devastating

The Q300's are approaching their end of life, as are some of the ATR-72's (500's). Social distancing requirements also mean that Air NZ is likely to require larger planes for domestic routes.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121207995/coronavirus-air-nz-nonstop-new-york-flights-very-challenging-amid-covid19-crisis

I can't see this route opening until late 2021 at least.

[macduffy]

If Australia is only big enough for "one and a half airlines", where does that leave NZ and AIR?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/virgin-shows-again-that-australia-cannot-sustain-two-airlines/12169620

[Arbroath]

Scott Morrison saying NZ will be the first country that Australia reconnects with and highlighting how well both countries are doing containing the virus.

My my gut instinct is we'll have a trans Tasman air market by Xmas.

[Cyclical]

Scott Morrison saying NZ will be the first country that Australia reconnects with and highlighting how well both countries are doing containing the virus.

My my gut instinct is we'll have a trans Tasman air market by Xmas.

Yeah and I'm just hoping that Aussie don't make an aggressive play to take out AIR while they are on the ropes.

[blackcap]

Yeah and I'm just hoping that Aussie don't make an aggressive play to take out AIR while they are on the ropes.

They can't. The crown holds the majority shareholding in AIR. Unless of course the crown sold to Aussie but I highly doubt that.

[Timesurfer]

Was that an aggressive play on the stock market - or an aggressive play by parking some of their redundant planes on NZ tarmac?

[Cyclical]

Was that an aggressive play on the stock market - or an aggressive play by parking some of their redundant planes on NZ tarmac?

The latter. AIR would be hoping that Jetstar is gone from the NZ market, but then Qantas might decide to ramp it up and really put the margin squeeze on AIR, while they are on the ropes. Probably not going to happen, it wouldn't be good for either nation to have only one domestic carrier spanning both.

[blackcap]

The latter. AIR would be hoping that Jetstar is gone from the NZ market, but then Qantas might decide to ramp it up and really put the margin squeeze on AIR, while they are on the ropes. Probably not going to happen, it wouldn't be good for either nation to have only one domestic carrier spanning both.

Interesting. Had not thought that one through. Surely a risky play though as they will be fighting vs the NZ govt. On the other hand the Aussies have deeper pockets. But politically unpalatable so probably still not going to happen.

[Beagle]

Yeah and I'm just hoping that Aussie don't make an aggressive play to take out AIR while they are on the ropes.

Not going to happen. Any party looking to acquire a shareholding of 10% or more in AIR must get permission from the N.Z. Govt.

The question is if the Govt end up with a 80-90% stake in AIR after the major recapitalization it needs will they pull up the draw-bridge in terms of who is allowed to fly within N.Z. ?

All international AIR staff to be tested, (not before time) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327130

[nztx]

Interesting. Had not thought that one through. Surely a risky play though as they will be fighting vs the NZ govt. On the other hand the Aussies have deeper pockets. But politically unpalatable so probably still not going to happen.


Has any one considered what a recapitalised & reorganised Virgin Australia is likely to play here ?

It could be that they have their act together considerably faster than AIR

If they re-established an early stronger presence here, it could be to AIR's detriment..

[Cyclical]

Interesting. Had not thought that one through. Surely a risky play though as they will be fighting vs the NZ govt. On the other hand the Aussies have deeper pockets. But politically unpalatable so probably still not going to happen.

You'd hope so, but this is the Aussies we're talking about... Qantas and their shareholders don't want to be seeing all those planes of theirs sitting dormant...


Not going to happen. Any party looking to acquire a shareholding of 10% or more in AIR must get permission from the N.Z. Govt.

Sorry Beagle, I should have stated I was thinking a battle for the skies, not one on the stock exchange.


Has any one considered what a recapitalised & reorganised Virgin Australia is likely to play here ?

It could be that they have their act together considerably faster than AIR

If they re-established an early stronger presence here, it could be to AIR's detriment..

Indeed. That's another reason why it's concerning AIR don't crack on with the reset they need to do.

[bottomfeeder]

May get to the stage where NZ Government, just cant afford to keep Air NZ afloat anymore and just has to accept Qantas as an ANZAC carrier. Deep pockets maybe, but just how deep, that is the question.

Just depends how deep the resurgence of Covid happens when the 1200 or so NZ Residents/Citizens come back from India.

Apparently its better for NZ if we take back people already infected with COVID from other countries, because it doesnt add to our count, but adds to the country they arrive from. This could be a real disaster that never makes the stats.

[nztx]

May get to the stage where NZ Government, just cant afford to keep Air NZ afloat anymore and just has to accept Qantas as an ANZAC carrier. Deep pockets maybe, but just how deep, that is the question.

Just depends how deep the resurgence of Covid happens when the 1200 or so NZ Residents/Citizens come back from India.

Govt still has dough apparently to throw around at anything but directly at the injured productive sectors & businesses - with Govt's Robertson considering / not ruling out Helicopter payments.

God knows how many affected SME's coming out the other side the Govt are expecting to see, or are they still blind to reality ?

It doesn't take many cells to extrapolate that business will be adjusting and repositioning on the other side, with high possibility
of further waves of jobs thrown on the scrap heap, for Govt to have to pick up the pieces on..

[Beagle]

"Stylish" new uniform for Philippine airlines crew. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12327161
Bet some AIR crew wouldn't mind wearing something similar.

[Waltzing]

im sure we will see something similar for next autumns return flights to europe 2021..

[Raz]

This is one example what US tourists will face to get here....hmmmm

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/04/22/coronavirus-air-travel-delta-ceo-says-recovery-could-take-three-years/3002301001/

[winner69]

Iceman will be gutted

@camwallace_nz
Bitterly disappointed that we have announced the cancellation of services to Bueno Aires. We served more than 400k pax over 4+ years on that route. Sth America boss, Alex O has lead a great bunch of professionals who are passionate about @FlyAirNZ @andykirton

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253 Reality is just starting to bite.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Reality is just starting to bite.


AIR market cap still $1.3 billion (even with all that debt)so no worries

Seems to be getting harder to get refunds I hear

[Beagle]

AIR market cap still $1.3 billion (even with all that debt)so no worries

Seems to be getting harder to get refunds I hear

You did well getting in with your refund request while they still had a reasonable amount of cash. Now they are starting to draw on the Govt loan at up to 9% interest that will be sharpening their focus on cash conservation. Better use up the rest of my airpoints next week before they run out of money to pay Miter 10.

[Cyclical]

You did well getting in with your refund request while they still had a reasonable amount of cash. Now they are starting to draw on the Govt loan at up to 9% interest that will be sharpening their focus on cash conservation. Better use up the rest of my airpoints next week before they run out of money to pay Miter 10.

Actually considering dipping into the Airpoints Advance balance to ensure that they don't owe me anything (other than about $400 worth of flight credit)...