AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Actually considering dipping into the Airpoints Advance balance to ensure that they don't owe me anything (other than about $400 worth of flight credit)...

Just out of curiosity, does that flight credit have a use by date ?

[dobby41]

Just out of curiosity, does that flight credit have a use by date ?

Till June next year to book and can book 340 days ahead.

[Beagle]

Till June next year to book and can book 340 days ahead.

Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327101
Ngai Tahu obviously think tourism is going to be very seriously affected for a very long time.

[dobby41]

Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327101
Ngai Tahu obviously think tourism is going to be very seriously affected for a very long time.

To be more specific - this is what they send (it has been exptended from 12 months from the date the credit was given)

For example, we’ve been able to make the following enhancements to provide greater options with more in development.

The booking period has been extended through to 30 June 2021
You have 12 months to complete your travel from the time you make the booking
The credit use is also not restricted to the same route or type of journey that was originally booked

[Cyclical]

Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327101
Ngai Tahu obviously think tourism is going to be very seriously affected for a very long time.

"It is trying times throughout New Zealand but Queenstown is by far the worst affected area."

It's going to be pretty devastating for Rotorua too, if we can't restart the tourism industry pronto. Maybe domestic and some government support to keep it idling. Once these are attractions are shutup, it's going to be a real chicken before the egg situation to get them going again, especially in terms of attracting international $$.

[dobby41]

"It is trying times throughout New Zealand but Queenstown is by far the worst affected area."

It's going to be pretty devastating for Rotorua too, if we can't restart the tourism industry pronto. Maybe domestic and some government support to keep it idling. Once these are attractions are shutup, it's going to be a real chicken before the egg situation to get them going again, especially in terms of attracting international $$.

International tourism isn't going to be happening this year (maybe earlier for Aus).

[steveb]

A lot of tourist attractions are educational,perhaps the govt.could support some school trips.

For example Kelly Tarltons in auckland cost's $39.00 which seems a bit expensive,but hey if you can get it great.But it is sold heavily to overseas tourists.Perhaps the gov't could kick in say $10.00 per student,Auckland Council could kick in with a subsided bus,and mum and dad could pay for a sticky bun and drink.

[Cyclical]

International tourism isn't going to be happening this year (maybe earlier for Aus).

Obviously.

[traineeinvestor]

International tourism isn't going to be happening this year (maybe earlier for Aus).

I tend to agree with this but the optimist in me could see travel restrictions being progressively lifted (possibly with mandatory on-arrival testing) with individual countries that have shown they have the issue under control. There would obviously need to be controls to prevent transiting.

[workingdad]

I tend to agree with this but the optimist in me could see travel restrictions being progressively lifted (possibly with mandatory on-arrival testing) with individual countries that have shown they have the issue under control. There would obviously need to be controls to prevent transiting.

SARS had superspreaders, some that were more infectious than others where one person infected many more than the average. Looking at some of our clusters and other exposures that haven’t resulted in a lot of spread I wonder if covid is similar. Either way there are too many unknowns that would hinder the ability to implement this safely even with on arrival testing given testing and the number of false negatives.

[patrick]

Patterson Who says u have a moral obligation to take the credit. We need a lawyer so we can each decide who gets our charity, not from the ivory tower.

[dobby41]

I tend to agree with this but the optimist in me could see travel restrictions being progressively lifted (possibly with mandatory on-arrival testing) with individual countries that have shown they have the issue under control. There would obviously need to be controls to prevent transiting.

Testing on arrival wouldn't cut it - could be days before testing showed it and you'd be in the community by then.
That's why we have 14days isolation now.
I'd tolerate 14 days isolation if I was taking my usual 60-70 day trip but not for anything less and most people would go away for 2-4 weeks.

[Raz]

Patterson Who says u have a moral obligation to take the credit. We need a lawyer so we can each decide who gets our charity, not from the ivory tower.

You mean this stuff...

But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

Well I book monthly return flights for the year ahead at the start of the year for Board meetings in LA, so my companies should morally give it to AIR as a credit and the guys an economist. WTF. Why are we still funding the middle management of AIR so they can get their 300k plus wage subsidy. After all they are funding it on customer airfares paid in advance and an a tax payer loan/equity deal by now, all at the expense of the other shareholders. If they were a professional sports team the so called talent would be kept and everyone else would have a cut cut way deeper by now.

Queenstown is a mess have a couple of rentals I built down there a long time ago..happy to keep the tenants in there for heavy discounted rent..many house down there are getting turned over if empty..many desperate people. Time to give back as we have made a killing down there...

Rotorua more accessible than Queenstown to a decent domestic population. Queenstown is on Ice if Victoria skiers can not come over this winter until the following year.

[Baa_Baa]

You mean this stuff...

But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

Well I book monthly return flights for the year ahead at the start of the year for Board meetings in LA, so my companies should morally give it to AIR as a credit and the guys an economist. WTF. Why are we still funding the middle management of AIR so they can get their 300k plus wage subsidy. After all they are funding it on customer airfares paid in advance and an a tax payer loan/equity deal by now, all at the expense of the other shareholders. If they were a professional sports team the so called talent would be kept and everyone else would have a cut cut way deeper by now.

Queenstown is a mess have a couple of rentals I built down there a long time ago..happy to keep the tenants in there for heavy discounted rent..many house down there are getting turned over if empty..many desperate people. Time to give back as we have made a killing down there...

Rotorua more accessible than Queenstown to a decent domestic population. Queenstown is on Ice if Victoria skiers can not come over this winter until the following year.

WTF is right! My frequent travel is local, booked months in advance and thousands of dollars up front, I want all my cancelled flights refunded, pronto. I’ll probably not have a contract soon so last thing I need is 8-12 weeks of pre-paid vouchers for flights I’ll never take. Those thousands of dollars are not the airlines’ to keep or defer, they’re mine, I’m not a charity and I didn’t cancel my flights, they did. Give me my money back. I have no sympathy for the airline or its shareholders. As a customer it’s not my responsibility to be charitable. I’d rather give the refund to the sallies than have the airline spend it on their bloated operating costs. End of rant.

[patrick]

WTF is right! My frequent travel is local, booked months in advance and thousands of dollars up front, I want all my cancelled flights refunded, pronto. I’ll probably not have a contract soon so last thing I need is 8-12 weeks of pre-paid vouchers for flights I’ll never take. Those thousands of dollars are not the airlines’ to keep or defer, they’re mine, I’m not a charity and I didn’t cancel my flights, they did. Give me my money back. I have no sympathy for the airline or its shareholders. As a customer it’s not my responsibility to be charitable. I’d rather give the refund to the sallies than have the airline spend it on their bloated operating costs. End of rant.

NO RANT mate
NOTHING Pi.... me off more than some AIR ....... telling me what I should do.

[causecelebre]

Prob been covered to death here but fyi

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/121240020/coronavirus-air-nz-obliged-to-refund-us-flights-some-eu-tickets-for-kiwis-consumer-nz

[peat]

So as part of their ongoing marketing exercise I guess they keep updating customers of which I am sure nearly everybody is.
But it is interesting how they keep pinning themselves down with the job numbers, I quote

"Weare leaving no stone unturned as we seek savings in all areas of our business.We are in a fight to try and save the 9,000 jobs that will remain after wecomplete the current consultation process that will see up to 3,500 highlytalented Air New Zealanders looking for work elsewhere"

How on earth are they going to pay 9000 staff as a domestic / intl freight only airline.

[nztx]

So as part of their ongoing marketing exercise I guess they keep updating customers of which I am sure nearly everybody is.
But it is interesting how they keep pinning themselves down with the job numbers, I quote

"Weare leaving no stone unturned as we seek savings in all areas of our business.We are in a fight to try and save the 9,000 jobs that will remain after wecomplete the current consultation process that will see up to 3,500 highlytalented Air New Zealanders looking for work elsewhere"

How on earth are they going to pay 9000 staff as a domestic / intl freight only airline.



A very interesting $64 million question that is too ..

[Raz]

A very interesting $64 million question that is too ..

Perhaps politically it is part of the deal..for now. In the end I guess it is the highest paid wage subsidy of them all, we are all paying for it via the crown.

[blackcap]

I nominate this guy for dick of the day;

"But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

What a complete tosser. Its not the customers fault that Air has not managed their balance sheet. Later in the story:

"At December 31, the airline's liabilities included $1.4 billion revenue in advance, which was tickets it had sold but not yet provided the service for. That was compared with $1 billion cash in the bank."

So by the looks they have been eating customers money before they have provided the service. Bit naughty if you ask me.

[iceman]

WTF is right! My frequent travel is local, booked months in advance and thousands of dollars up front, I want all my cancelled flights refunded, pronto. I’ll probably not have a contract soon so last thing I need is 8-12 weeks of pre-paid vouchers for flights I’ll never take. Those thousands of dollars are not the airlines’ to keep or defer, they’re mine, I’m not a charity and I didn’t cancel my flights, they did. Give me my money back. I have no sympathy for the airline or its shareholders. As a customer it’s not my responsibility to be charitable. I’d rather give the refund to the sallies than have the airline spend it on their bloated operating costs. End of rant.

I agree. I have a flight book Buenos Aires-Auckland that they have cancelled. Furthermore, in the news in Argentina today is an article announcing Air NZ is pulling out of this route for good, the route I frequently travel with AIR. So a credit is pathetic.

[winner69]

I nominate this guy for dick of the day;

"But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

What a complete tosser. Its not the customers fault that Air has not managed their balance sheet. Later in the story:

"At December 31, the airline's liabilities included $1.4 billion revenue in advance, which was tickets it had sold but not yet provided the service for. That was compared with $1 billion cash in the bank."

So by the looks they have been eating customers money before they have provided the service. Bit naughty if you ask me.

Nothing new in that ....prepaid fares best form of free working capital there is.

Until the **** hits the fan.

[tommy_d]

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

exactly. He seems to forget that air nz is a listed company, not a state owned enterprise. He is basically saying that air nz customers should be donating money to air nz shareholders.

[samjaynz]

I'm lucky that all the travel I had booked for work for coming weeks/months was all on the 'flex date' class (hadn't booked any international at this stage) so easy to get refunds there.

But this business of offering credits when the international travel landscape is going to be uncertain for a long time to come - and routes are being dropped, including the one you may have purchased for - is not good enough IMO from a consumer protection perspective.

That Patterson chap can shove it. As others have alluded to, it's not our responsibility as consumers to ensure the companies we buy from are being prudent with the money we give them.

The government will bail out Air NZ anyway if it all falls over completely, so they should do the right thing and cough up the coin that Kiwis have basically lent them (interest free).

If they would prefer to hold on to the cash, then they should offer credits on more favourable terms. For example, Ticketmaster in the US is offering 150% credits to ticket holders OR the option for a full cash refund.

People may desperately need to access that cash for mortgage payments, rent, vehicle repayments etc. So many live hand to mouth - a trip to Europe that was affordable 3 months ago now may be the difference between getting your car repo-ed or not (luckily I bike everywhere ... no Baycorp visits for me).

[winner69]

Virgin AU well and truly munted (financially)

Still be pretty dire if AIR is only half as munted as Virgin are

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/failed-airline-virgin-australia-owes-nearly-7b-to-thousands-of-creditors-20200424-p54my4.html

[Cyclical]

There will be those that had paid for flights to another country to find employment, a long term OE or a new start...plenty of them won't be in a situation to lend that money to AIR for an extended period. Are they doing some kind of case by case assessment here, or is it a black and white no refund policy?

[stoploss]

There will be those that had paid for flights to another country to find employment, a long term OE or a new start...plenty of them won't be in a situation to lend that money to AIR for an extended period. Are they doing some kind of case by case assessment here, or is it a black and white no refund policy?
With this caring and transparent Govt I’m picking they will eventually buckle and offer everyone “their” money .

[Beagle]

So as part of their ongoing marketing exercise I guess they keep updating customers of which I am sure nearly everybody is.
But it is interesting how they keep pinning themselves down with the job numbers, I quote

"Weare leaving no stone unturned as we seek savings in all areas of our business.We are in a fight to try and save the 9,000 jobs that will remain after wecomplete the current consultation process that will see up to 3,500 highlytalented Air New Zealanders looking for work elsewhere"

How on earth are they going to pay 9000 staff as a domestic / intl freight only airline.

They appear to be completely delusional. It took 3 years for demand to return to normal after 9/11. This is FAR more serious and travel demand is unlikely to return to anything like it was for many many years. Their whole focus seems to be on retaining staff so they are ready for growth again on the other side of Covid 19. Their focus should be on getting through the next period of 12-24 months of extremely weak demand so they can survive to meet modest demand the other side of that.
Things are unlikely to return to normal for 4-5 years in my opinion.



I nominate this guy for dick of the day;

"But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.

"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.

What a complete tosser. Its not the customers fault that Air has not managed their balance sheet. Later in the story:

"At December 31, the airline's liabilities included $1.4 billion revenue in advance, which was tickets it had sold but not yet provided the service for. That was compared with $1 billion cash in the bank."

So by the looks they have been eating customers money before they have provided the service. Bit naughty if you ask me.

So this "gentleman" on hundreds of thousands of dollars per annum sits in moral judgement on a retired old couple of modest means who have saved for years to have their lifetime dream of a trip to Europe. The ugly truth is you've got people like Cam Wallace chief revenue officer probably on a massive salary of well over $500,000 sitting there watching flight radar and tweeting the bleeding obvious that demand has fallen straight off the edge of a cliff.

On the solvency thing, I have been saying that for quite a while that the airline is technically insolvent. Some people on here thought that a bean counter with 40 years experience didn't know what he was talking about. Well it turns out I do. Why should people feel compelled to take a credit for future airline travel they have to book within 14 months or so when it may not even be safe to travel then ? The arrogance of people in the ivory tower being paid many hundreds of thousands of dollars to make moral judgement on people of far more modest means who have scrimped and saved for their dream trip is truly breathtaking. Quite frankly I am disgusted and will spend my remaining airpoints ASAP and won't be flying anywhere, anytime soon.

P.S. More on this subject here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327538

[samjaynz]

So this "gentleman" on hundreds of thousands of dollars per annum sits in moral judgement on a retired old couple of modest means who have saved for years to have their lifetime dream of a trip to Europe. The ugly truth is you've got people like Cam Wallace chief revenue officer probably on a massive salary of well over $500,000 sitting there watching flight radar and tweeting the bleeding obvious that demand has fallen straight off the edge of a cliff.

On the solvency thing, I have been saying that for quite a while that the airline is technically insolvent. Some people on here thought that a bean counter with 40 years experience didn't know what he was talking about. Well it turns out I do. Why should people feel compelled to take a credit for future airline travel they have to book within 14 months or so when it may not even be safe to travel then ? The arrogance of people in the ivory tower being paid many hundreds of thousands of dollars to make moral judgement on people of far more modest means who have scrimped and saved for their dream trip is truly breathtaking. Quite frankly I am disgusted and will spend my remaining airpoints ASAP and won't be flying anywhere, anytime soon.

Hear hear.

Some family members of mine of fairly modest means have saved diligently to afford their dream trip ... but they should be grateful to give up their scraps so the lords can continue to feast at the banquet!

[Zaphod]

"If customers have purchased a domestic non-refundable ticket and don't wish to travel, they will not receive a refund unless local legislation requires a refund to be made."

Sounds like Air NZ certainly aren't taking the moral high ground as Pattersen expects the consumer to?

[pierre]

My wife and I were to fly Biz class to Buenos Aires on 29 March but the flight was cancelled mid-March. I reluctantly accepted a credit for the fares (recently extended to June 30 2021) in the hope we could book to travel there in the next year or so. AIR announced yesterday they now wont be resuming flights to BA at all.
I have today contacted them to ask for a refund to my credit card as they can't/won't provide the service I paid them to deliver.
It's unconscionable for them to retain my cash in these circumstances.

[nztx]

Virgin AU well and truly munted (financially)

Still be pretty dire if AIR is only half as munted as Virgin are

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/failed-airline-virgin-australia-owes-nearly-7b-to-thousands-of-creditors-20200424-p54my4.html

Remember that Virgin Aussie have been able to fly over in OZ under a less restricted job that here

What does that suggest for AIR (or should that be Debt AIR Robertson) ?

The latter may see some mid air duels here, if the Virgin job gets off the ground fast again - a very good chance of that with Deep Pocketed Private Equity owners waiting at the VA door

[nztx]

With this caring and transparent Govt I’m picking they will eventually buckle and offer everyone “their” money .


Probably another Billion dollar high Usary Rate Taxpayer Loan to keep AIR on the tarmac looks likely needed for next September 20 Quarter as well ..

[Beagle]

My wife and I were to fly Biz class to Buenos Aires on 29 March but the flight was cancelled mid-March. I reluctantly accepted a credit for the fares (recently extended to June 30 2021) in the hope we could book to travel there in the next year or so. AIR announced yesterday they now wont be resuming flights to BA at all.
I have today contacted them to ask for a refund to my credit card as they can't/won't provide the service I paid them to deliver.
It's unconscionable for them to retain my cash in these circumstances.

I think you have a very strong case for a cash refund as they are the ones that have decided to permanently cease flying there. You could also consider approaching your bank about reversing the charge to your credit card as permanent cancellation and inability to provide goods or services should entitle you to a reversal of the charge. Good luck and be tenacious.

[samjaynz]

I think you have a very strong case for a cash refund as they are the ones that have decided to permanently cease flying there. You could also consider approaching your bank about reversing the charge to your credit card as permanent cancellation and inability to provide goods or services should entitle you to a reversal of the charge. Good luck and be tenacious.

Has anyone looked into or tried charge backs on their credit card for Air NZ not refunding flights?

Credit - for routes that may not be served any more, and that may not even be usable due to travel restrictions - isn't a good enough option.

[winner69]

More I read and hear I’m glad I insisted on a cash refund for the cash I forked out a while ago for a trip to UK this month.

[Sgt Pepper]

Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"

[traineeinvestor]

Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"

IMHO it's not remotely justified. The airline is burning through cash, we're heading into a major recession and the Prime Minister has said repeatedly that NZ's borders will remain closed for "a very long time."

Side note: AIR NZ's refund policy compares rather poorly with Cathay Pacific's policy which, after some messing around back in February, became (i) if you purchased your ticket before HK's travel restrictions kicked in, you can either reschedule or get a full refund with no fees applied and (ii) if you purchased your ticket after HK's travel restrictions kicked in, no refund but you can rebook as often as you like out to March 2021 at no cost.

[Flugenbear]

Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"

It's delusional at best, down right stupidity at worse.
I think Einstein said it best "only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity".

So I'm going with stupidity.

[pierre]

I think you have a very strong case for a cash refund as they are the ones that have decided to permanently cease flying there. You could also consider approaching your bank about reversing the charge to your credit card as permanent cancellation and inability to provide goods or services should entitle you to a reversal of the charge. Good luck and be tenacious.

Thanks Beagle. The flights were booked late last year so unfortunately, I am way out of time for the credit card reversal to be an option.

I contacted AIR via Messenger but realise they are snowed under with issues like mine so I'm not expecting an immediate response. I will be keeping the heat on though if they try to wriggle out of this one.

[Sideshow Bob]

Was supposed to flight to Chicago on Thursday. Originally had got a credit, but later went for a refund - sitting with the travel agent at the moment.

The event I supposed to be going to in the States has been delayed until August - the same time as an event going to in Shanghai. I know which one has a greater chance of being on......

[Beagle]

Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"

You've got to wonder if the board have their heads in the sand too. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317644.pdf
From the interim report "I am confident that we have the ability to manage the expected short-term impacts of Covid-19 effectively".

Declaring an unchanged dividend and then having to cancel it suggests that board have been behind the times with thinking through the impact of Covid 19 from the outset.
Shareholders equity as at 31 December 2019 was $2,014m.

There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that this time next year they will have incurred losses of at least that amount so the shares are presently technically worthless.
There's also no doubt in my mind as to the fact that the NZ Govt will have to convert their $900m loan to equity contemporaneously with a rights issue of a similar amount to other shareholders which will happen sometime in 2020, probably by at latest Sept 2020, potentially a lot sooner.

A have serious doubts that a ~ $1.8 billion capital raise will see them right through this Covid 19 crisis and believe the risks of a further capital raise to restore liquidity from losses in FY21 and FY22in due course are very real. Indeed, in my mind there are real questions as to whether the company can even break even in FY23. That year starts in July 2022 only 27 months from now. They may be back to 60-70% of capacity by then or perhaps only 50-60% which won't be enough to make a profit.

Really I don't see any real money being made until they are back to 80% load factors on the substantial majority of their former route network. Maybe they have a chance of a small profit in FY24 but I think more likely FY25. In the meantime it won't surprise me to see them burn $4-5 billion in capital over the next few years to stay afloat.

In that context what's the current $2 billion of share equity worth !

[winner69]

You've got to wonder if the board have their heads in the sand too. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317644.pdf
From the interim report "I am confident that we have the ability to manage the expected short-term impacts of Covid-19 effectively".

Declaring an unchanged dividend and then having to cancel it suggests that board have been behind the times with thinking through the impact of Covid 19 from the outset.
Shareholders equity as at 31 December 2019 was $2,014m.

There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that this time next year they will have incurred losses of at least that amount so the shares are presently technically worthless.
There's also no doubt in my mind as to the fact that the NZ Govt will have to convert their $900m loan to equity contemporaneously with a rights issue of a similar amount to other shareholders which will happen sometime in 2020, possibly around August - Sept.

A have serious doubts that a ~ $1.8 billion capital raise will see them right through this Covid 19 crisis and believe the risks of a further capital raise to restore liquidity from losses in FY21 and FY22 are very real. Indeed, in my mind there are real questions as to whether the company can even break even in FY23. That year starts in July 2022 only 27 months from now. They may be back to 60-70% of capacity by then or perhaps only 50-60% which won't be enough to make a profit.

Really I don't see any money being made until they are back to 80% load factors on the substantial majority of their former route network. Maybe they have a chance of a small profit in FY24 but I think more likely FY25. In the meantime it won't surprise me to see burn $4-5 billion over the next few years to stay afloat, perhaps even more from this enduring disaster.

In that context what's the current $2 billion of share equity worth ! (That's a rhetorical question in case anyone is wondering)

Last sentence - answer not much.

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"

Hi all - I'm new to ShareTrader. Not so new to the Market.

I'm a bit of a chartist, so on pure speculation I bought at 0.84 (what I saw to be a safe-ish, historic low) and I sold at 1.28 (That absurd rally was overheated enough for me by that point - even if it hit 1.60 later!).

Any trades on it right now are obvs speculative and current valuation is very short term (ie subtracting 1B of cashburn from 2B equity) at best, delusional at worst. But on its Technicals, I could justify getting back in there to hoover up the cream of some dumb money next week. It's near a 38.2%/50% retracement confluence zone and volume has dropped away as price been edging lower (waiting for more news). There's a risk it may test the next confluence zone however around 1.10. Then you simply watch the Sharesies traders Market Order the price back to 1.50 and voila.

[steveb]

And at what point do management say to themselves what's the point and simply give up.Can you imagine the amount of motivation as well as money it's going to take to keep this one going.

My money would be on a split company domestic and overseas.with the very real chance of the overseas company either being sold or going under.

[macduffy]

You've got to wonder if the board have their heads in the sand too. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...043/317644.pdf
From the interim report "I am confident that we have the ability to manage the expected short-term impacts of Covid-19 effectively".

When do you think the market will wake up and realise that it's not just the short-term impacts that they should be concerned with?

[Beagle]

Last sentence - answer not much.

Brand value only and what's their brand worth the way they are treating customers with forcing most to accept credits they don't really want and in many cases have to play Russian Roulette with their health to potentially use down the track ? I think its morally bankrupt that they force people to accept credit rather than cash and totally unconscionable that they then go on to place a strict time limit around when that credit must be used so that customers are coerced to take chances with their health they wouldn't ordinary take. That sort of attitude to customers is extremely corrosive to brand value from where I sit.

[macduffy]

And at what point do management say to themselves what's the point and simply give up.Can you imagine the amount of motivation as well as money it's going to take to keep this one going.

My money would be on a split company domestic and overseas.with the very real chance of the overseas company either being sold or going under.

Perhaps, but instead I would have my money on the govt continuing to pour our money into AIR to keep it airworthy.

[Beagle]

When do you think the market will wake up and realise that it's not just the short-term impacts that they should be concerned with?

I think they will bleed red ink of over one billion dollars in the year to 30 June 2020 inclusive of redundancy and restructuring costs. When that's reported in August the reality of how severe this will be in the medium term will start to sink in for many.

[traineeinvestor]

Perhaps, but instead I would have my money on the govt continuing to pour our money into AIR to keep it airworthy.

Me too, but if the government continues to pour taxpayer money in to AIR, that's a pretty good sign that the current shareholders will have been wiped out (or as near as makes no meaningful difference).

[winner69]

Me too, but if the government continues to pour taxpayer money in to AIR, that's a pretty good sign that the current shareholders will have been wiped out (or as near as makes no meaningful difference).

I think a wipe out is in the cards as well ....OK maybe not a total wipeout but pretty close to it from these levels.

[Sgt Pepper]

IMHO it's not remotely justified. The airline is burning through cash, we're heading into a major recession and the Prime Minister has said repeatedly that NZ's borders will remain closed for "a very long time."

Side note: AIR NZ's refund policy compares rather poorly with Cathay Pacific's policy which, after some messing around back in February, became (i) if you purchased your ticket before HK's travel restrictions kicked in, you can either reschedule or get a full refund with no fees applied and (ii) if you purchased your ticket after HK's travel restrictions kicked in, no refund but you can rebook as often as you like out to March 2021 at no cost.

What are brokers saying about Air NZ??. Surely it must be DON'T TOUCH WITH A BARGEPOLE.

[steveb]

Well Morningstar have them on accumulate value $2.10

[Beagle]

So 19 years after the original near wipe out after 9/11 which was done at 25 cents we get the next one. Might take 5 years to recover proeprly but maybe the next virus pandemic comes before then or shortly after that or maybe Covid 19 mutates and travel never goes back to anything like normal ?

This looks totally uninvest-able to me. One might be tempted to ponder if the current share price has something to do with the fact that the TAB and Casino's are closed ?

[Beagle]

Well Morningstar have them on accumulate value $2.10

You've got to wonder where they get their analysts or what they're smoking !

[steveb]

But wait there's more Morningstar only re-valued on apr 15th due to downgrade!
Plonkers

[Lola]

So 19 years after the original near wipe out after 9/11 which was done at 25 cents we get the next one. Might take 5 years to recover proeprly but maybe the next virus pandemic comes before then or shortly after that or maybe Covid 19 mutates and travel never goes back to anything like normal ?

This looks totally uninvest-able to me. One might be tempted to ponder if the current share price has something to do with the fact that the TAB and Casino's are closed ?

Wrong the TAB is very open. ELEVEN meetings in Aussie yesterday. All carried live on TV 61 and 62. Many races carrying stakes of $ 1 million plus. And the Casino is open five days a week. Thats the WA Stock exchange I refer to. Line up.

JA and Grant using advice / direction(?) from Dr Dloomberg are all hatching a cunning plan to return NZ to pre Rogernomincs days. AIR NZ will just be first on many.

[traineeinvestor]

Well Morningstar have them on accumulate value $2.10

How do we short Morningstar? :eek2:

[Beagle]

But wait there's more Morningstar only re-valued on apr 15th due to downgrade!
Plonkers

Their analysts must reckon their back catalogue of quirky safety video's is worth billions LOL

[Timesurfer]

Their analysts must reckon their back catalogue of quirky safety video's is worth billions LOL
Or maybe the have a truckload of shares they are trying to offload?

[Sgt Pepper]

Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley said the funding provided "ample liquidity" for the foreseeable future however, it would need additional equity within a year and may need to sell planes
Sell Planes!! sell to who??

[samjaynz]

Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley said the funding provided "ample liquidity" for the foreseeable future however, it would need additional equity within a year and may need to sell planes
Sell Planes!! sell to who??

$1 reserve on TradeMe. Get one of those 'Cool Auction' listings!

[InvestingTesting]

If the government's $900 million loan to Air NZ is turned into shares at is an option, would this mean new shares are issued and the value of current shares would drop drastically?

[Lola]

Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley said the funding provided "ample liquidity" for the foreseeable future however, it would need additional equity within a year and may need to sell planes
Sell Planes!! sell to who??

Hang on
All airlines LEASE their planes.
Great analyst.
Must have been their Feltex guy.

[Beagle]

But wait there's more Morningstar only re-valued on apr 15th due to downgrade!
Plonkers

I've worked it out. What a Eureka moment. Its clear they have put a brand value on the Koru symbol on the tail fin of the planes at $7 billion and the $4-5 billion they will lose in the next 3-4 years means the net present value is $2.10. That's "brilliant", Morningstar are genius's and I can't believe its taken me this long to see the true value :D

[percy]

Hang on
All airlines LEASE their planes.
Great analyst.
Must have been their Feltex guy.

Psssssssssssst can you see leasing companies giving an airline a rent/lease holiday.?
More chance getting a cash refund from an airline,.lol.

ps Didn't David Richwhite and Michael Fay go into aircraft leasing.

[iceman]

Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley said the funding provided "ample liquidity" for the foreseeable future however, it would need additional equity within a year and may need to sell planes
Sell Planes!! sell to who??

This sort of says it all about the credibility of these people. How can he say in the same sentence that they have ample liquidity for "the foreseeable future" and that an additional equity is needed "within a year". Right there he is saying his "foreseeable future" is much less than a year. Then suggest they need to sell planes, with 80-90% of the World{s fleet grounded and much of it up for firesale !! How pathetic.

Beagle I agree with your earlier post. Not only are they in financial ruin dependant on the Government, their brand loyalty is also shot. Customers will not have any loyalty to a small domestic airline that has recently treated their loyalty worse than most overseas carriers when the **** really hit the fan !

[Beagle]

For what its worth I have listened into AIR's investor conference calls after each annual and half year result for many years and Andy Bowley has never really impressed me. At the best of times he asks very average questions of management, (Maybe on those occasions he had consumed 4 strong coffee's that morning). In short, I don't rate him and comments about selling aircraft are obviously absurd.

Markus Curly of UBS is much brighter and he recently estimated AIR are burning cash at the rate of $211 a month, PLUS redundancy, restructuring costs and airfare refunds. I assume ~ $40m per month to close out fuel collar positions is another extra cost on top of all that. The whole $900m loan from the Govt will be well gone BEFORE 31 July 2020, you read it here first ! I think they could be forced to do a massive capital raise as early as next month or if not in May, June 2020 would be highly likely ! They'll certainly be "flying on a near empty tank" by the end of June if they don't.

AIR on a crash course with economic reality, its as simple as that. Investors should adopt the brace position for the inevitable VERY hard landing.

[traineeinvestor]

Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley said the funding rovided "ample liquidity" for the foreseeable future however, it would need additional equity within a year and may need to sell planes
Sell Planes!! sell to who??

For most analysts the "foreseeable future" is the moment before the next capital raising or profit downgrade is announced.:lol:

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

For what its worth I have listened into AIR's investor conference calls after each annual and half year result for many years and Andy Bowley has never really impressed me. At the best of times he asks very average questions of management, (Maybe on those occasions he had consumed 4 strong coffee's that morning). In short, I don't rate him and comments about selling aircraft are obviously absurd.

Markus Curly of UBS is much brighter and he recently estimated AIR are burning cash at the rate of $211 a month, PLUS redundancy, restructuring costs and airfare refunds. I assume ~ $40m per month to close out fuel collar positions is another extra cost on top of all that. The whole $900m loan from the Govt will be well gone BEFORE 31 July 2020, you read it here first ! I think they could be forced to do a massive capital raise as early as next month or if not in May, June 2020 would be highly likely ! They'll certainly be "flying on a near empty tank" by the end of June if they don't.

AIR on a crash course with economic reality, its as simple as that. Investors should adopt the brace position for the inevitable VERY hard landing.

Where do Air NZ's cash reserves factor into that calculation?

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

Hang on
All airlines LEASE their planes.
Great analyst.
Must have been their Feltex guy.

The IQ in this thread HAHAHAHAHA
They lease 27% of their planes and own 72%. Check the 2019 Databook.

[Chinesekiwi]

Hang on
All airlines LEASE their planes.
Great analyst.
Must have been their Feltex guy.

Hi Lola

Air NZ own a decent minority of some of their long haul aircraft.

[nztx]

Another interesting Capital item on the future list announced 27 May 2019 - just last year here:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335068

AirNZ announces multi-billion-dollar investment in aircraft


"The first of these highly fuel-efficient aircraft will join the Air New Zealand fleet in 2022"


and some more here in the depths of the following announcement made on 22 Aug 2019:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/339567


"Air NZ announces profit of $374 million, maintains dividend"


"The airline will also take delivery of six ATR aircraft and three Airbus A320/321 NEO aircraft in the 2020 financial year, which will provide continued growth, fuel efficiency and cost benefits on the Tasman and Pacific Islands network. An additional Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will also join the fleet this year."


What are the likely costs of exiting these, if no longer required or the orders are slashed ?

It doesn't look any better for the national Airline sitting virtually broke and on Govt Life Support lines just to make it through the next 12-18 months ..

[nztx]

Hi Lola

Air NZ own a decent minority of some of their long haul aircraft.


Refer to Note 19 of the AIR 2019 Annual Report:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305893.pdf


"Future operating lease commitments

Aircraft leases payable*


Airline Leases Payable 2019 - $ 767 MILLION ; 2018 - $ 907 MILLION


Total operating lease commitments 2019 - $1,058 MILLION - 2018: 1,201 MILLION

* Includes lease commitments for one Airbus A320 NEO aircraft and one Boeing 787-9 aircraft due to be delivered in the 2020
financial year.

** Aircraft leases payable less than 1 year includes $14 million of commitments for short-term leases which provide cover for Boeing
787-9 engine issues (30 June 2018: $18 million).

Subject to negotiation, certain aircraft operating leases give the Group the right to renew the lease."


Perhaps they do own a few of the older Bubbles on Wings outright (outside Operating Leases) for putting around on minor routes
off the beaten track, but the hefty amounts reported under this note tend to suggest some fairly hefty Operating Lease Commitments which wont be for the decades old flying machines on their last legs stacked up in the back of the Hanger..



It's interesting that at balance date 2019, AIR had $ 242 MILLION of Current Property & Airline lease payments due to be stumped up within the year, without throwing further New Airplane Leases costs on top of this ..


With roughly a $ Billion Ca$h readies, it's difficult to see that any new Airline/Plane additions could be anything other than further new Operating Leases being added to the existing pile ...

[Snow Leopard]

AIR, I believe, own more aircraft than they lease. [ see planespotters.net (https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-New-Zealand) ]

However the ones they own will generally have been paid for, in part, with borrowed money to the tune of (guessing) 40-50% of their value.

As for value, well it is a buyers market at the moment.

[Raz]

The medium term result is obvious..should be timely action so in the end it is retained and minimise amount of crown money used.

[thedrunkfish]

The IQ in this thread HAHAHAHAHA
They lease 27% of their planes and own 72%. Check the 2019 Databook.

Bored? No Sharesies on the weekends huh.

[Lola]

The IQ in this thread HAHAHAHAHA
They lease 27% of their planes and own 72%. Check the 2019 Databook.

OK smartypants I may have got that a little wrong. Apologies. But judging by the general thrust of the postings since, I think I made my point. Buy the kids a subscription to the National Geographic. They wont be going anywhere far in the bext 5 years.

[CKWJ]

AIR, I believe, own more aircraft than they lease. [ see planespotters.net (https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-New-Zealand) ]

However the ones they own will generally have been paid for, in part, with borrowed money to the tune of (guessing) 40-50% of their value.

As for value, well it is a buyers market at the moment.

I hear they're trying to store their owned aircraft to preserve them from any more wear and tear, and to preserve their value, while the few aircraft that are still flying are mostly leased. Makes sense to depreciate the aircraft they don't own, yet still have to pay the leases on.

[Beagle]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-australia-administrators-face-mammoth-task-with-aircraft-owners-20200426-p54n9m.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+27+A pril+2020

A new owner of Virgin could end up with very cheap aircraft and dirt cheap leases which could give them quite a significant competitive advantage. I imagine crew would also be keen to work on more competitive terms and the spot price for fuel is currently at multi decade lows. The big three costs of operation could be significantly lower than for existing airlines with legacy crew, aircraft and fuel hedging issues.

[chasemecatchme]

OK smartypants I may have got that a little wrong. Apologies. But judging by the general thrust of the postings since, I think I made my point. Buy the kids a subscription to the National Geographic. They wont be going anywhere far in the bext 5 years.

I got some old school 1970’s NG mags for sale, good reading and investment for the kids

[Balance]

Pertinent to Air NZ:

Lifeline for our tourism sector when (not if) Australasian bubble is created to facilitate travel between the two countries.

Will make a huge difference to both countries.

Let's hope the bubble is in time for the Queenstown ski-season.

Note that Australian tourists & travelers account for 50% of all international visitors to NZ.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...9c05a352c7bf95

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/ma...ets/australia/

And it could be that there will just be Air NZ & Qantas flying the TransTasman routes for a while.

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121280665/coronavirus-air-new-zealand-has-busy-saturday-night-but-holds-little-hope-for-level-3

First small steps.

[Hoop]

Pertinent to Air NZ:

Lifeline for our tourism sector when (not if) Australasian bubble is created to facilitate travel between the two countries.

Will make a huge difference to both countries.

Let's hope the bubble is in time for the Queenstown ski-season.

Note that Australian tourists & travelers account for 50% of all international visitors to NZ.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...9c05a352c7bf95

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/ma...ets/australia/

And it could be that there will just be Air NZ & Qantas flying the TransTasman routes for a while.
That's strange clicking on the links are displaying two dead links.:confused:
Hmmm Duopoly... Yes it will bee interesting to see how long the two Governments tolerate seeing only their 2 "bailed out" National Carriers flying the Tasman...
Better put...how long Businesses will tolerate it..

[Zaphod]

Interesting to note that Hamilton airport announced to their shareholders that they do not expect any Air NZ services prior to October 2020.

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

Bored? No Sharesies on the weekends huh.

Just trying to shake the dust and cobwebs out of these armchair analysts. We can however all agree that Sharesies has turned the old way of carefully placed and priced orders on its head. The number of times I've watched major support and resistance points be ignored by a cascade of 7 dollar trades these past few weeks has been surprising. But it provides much needed liquidity so life is not all bad.

[RTM]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-australia-administrators-face-mammoth-task-with-aircraft-owners-20200426-p54n9m.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+27+A pril+2020

A new owner of Virgin could end up with very cheap aircraft and dirt cheap leases which could give them quite a significant competitive advantage. I imagine crew would also be keen to work on more competitive terms and the spot price for fuel is currently at multi decade lows. The big three costs of operation could be significantly lower than for existing airlines with legacy crew, aircraft and fuel hedging issues.

There will just be one thing missing.....Customers !

[Beagle]

There will just be one thing missing.....Customers !

Might be in administration for many months and some customers might be back by then.

[Ecks]

Another interesting Capital item on the future list announced 27 May 2019 - just last year here:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335068

AirNZ announces multi-billion-dollar investment in aircraft


"The first of these highly fuel-efficient aircraft will join the Air New Zealand fleet in 2022"


and some more here in the depths of the following announcement made on 22 Aug 2019:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/339567


"Air NZ announces profit of $374 million, maintains dividend"


"The airline will also take delivery of six ATR aircraft and three Airbus A320/321 NEO aircraft in the 2020 financial year, which will provide continued growth, fuel efficiency and cost benefits on the Tasman and Pacific Islands network. An additional Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner will also join the fleet this year."


What are the likely costs of exiting these, if no longer required or the orders are slashed ?

It doesn't look any better for the national Airline sitting virtually broke and on Govt Life Support lines just to make it through the next 12-18 months ..

Purchase request deposits particularly with Boeing are 15% (Etihad airlines recently forfeited theirs to cancel future orders). A 787-10 has a ticket price of US$338m so ~ US$50m deposit lost for the additional Boeing 787 alone (albeit the older model might have been slightly cheaper but on less favorable deposit terms)

https://www.dw.com/en/boeing-battered-even-before-coronavirus-restarts-in-survival-mode/a-53200615

[Beagle]

Chris Luxon let it slip a while back that the Dreamliners are costing them $US150m each. One of the middle east carriers the other day was reported to be getting a 55% discount on original contract retail price , but demanded another 15% off the already discounted price or they can keep them. Boeing caved in from what I read, (despite deposits paid that they could have retained) and they got them for $US$130m.

Bottom line Boeing and Airbus desperately need to keep building and delivering aircraft and airlines have no need for new aircraft at present.

[sb9]

Chris Luxon let it slip a while back that the Dreamliners are costing them $US150m each. One of the middle east carriers the other day was reported to be getting a 55% discount on original contract retail price , but demanded another 15% off the already discounted price or they can keep them. Boeing caved in from what I read, (despite deposits paid that they could have retained) and they got them for $US$130m.

Bottom line Boeing and Airbus desperately need to keep building and delivering aircraft and airlines have no need for new aircraft at present.

Talking of Luxon he must disappointed to see his holdings (whatever remainder he holds) dwindle in value by this much from the height of about $3 when he was in charge.

[CKWJ]

Chris Luxon let it slip a while back that the Dreamliners are costing them $US150m each. One of the middle east carriers the other day was reported to be getting a 55% discount on original contract retail price , but demanded another 15% off the already discounted price or they can keep them. Boeing caved in from what I read, (despite deposits paid that they could have retained) and they got them for $US$130m.


Even in better times it's rare for aircraft to be sold at list prices, a lot of it depends on the size of the order and ever-present threat the competing manufacturers could undercut. Just so happened when Air NZ was negotiating the order for the 787-10, the 737MAX grounding was starting to hit Boeing hard, putting them under the pump to book some orders which could've knocked the prices down a bit further.

This crisis is hitting Airbus and Boeing hard, but Boeing especially has been under pressure for some time before the covid crisis.

[Chinesekiwi]

Talking of Luxon he must disappointed to see his holdings (whatever remainder he holds) dwindle in value by this much from the height of about $3 when he was in charge.

Poor guy he can hardly afford another haircut.

[Beagle]

Talking of Luxon he must disappointed to see his holdings (whatever remainder he holds) dwindle in value by this much from the height of about $3 when he was in charge.

He and Teflon John sure got out at the right time !

[Chinesekiwi]

He and Teflon John sure got out at the right time !


Birds of a feather.......

[arc]

So what happens to airlines when "Everybody" arriving in the country has a 2 week quarantine period. BANG goes tourism

Fly to Britain, 2 weeks isolation, have a holiday , fly home, another 2 weeks isolation

And we haven't yet established that 14 days is the actual incubation time of this virus.

Will the same apply to Aussie ??. Surely a "Trans-Tasman Bubble" would eliminate the 2 weeks. ( I think we will need a Health-App on our phones )

[macduffy]

That's it, arc. But my pick is that the 2 week quarantine has a limited life. Public demand will see it lifted at some stage - ready or not!

[traineeinvestor]

That's it, arc. But my pick is that the 2 week quarantine has a limited life. Public demand will see it lifted at some stage - ready or not!

My guess is that we'll see some combination of countries starting to drop the 2 week quarantine period for visitors from countries with very low rates of infection (with regulations to prevent transit passengers taking advantage) and/or mandatory on arrival or pre-departure testing. The alternative is to say that there won't be any air travel until a vaccine is developed and has proven its effectiveness which could take years.

Any period of quarantine likely to be effective is too long to permit all but long term passenger movements.

[samjaynz]

My guess is that we'll see some combination of countries starting to drop the 2 week quarantine period for visitors from countries with very low rates of infection (with regulations to prevent transit passengers taking advantage) and/or mandatory on arrival or pre-departure testing. The alternative is to say that there won't be any air travel until a vaccine is developed and has proven its effectiveness which could take years.

Any period of quarantine likely to be effective is too long to permit all but long term passenger movements.

As long as there is a quarantine period in place, air travel must surely be for returning residents or those committed to very long holidays only.

I was averaging 2-3 "day trips" to Australia a month for work before the lockdown - no way I'm going to spend even 2 days in quarantine for a one day work trip ... let alone 2 weeks!

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[traineeinvestor]

As long as there is a quarantine period in place, air travel must surely be for returning residents or those committed to very long holidays only.

I was averaging 2-3 "day trips" to Australia a month for work before the lockdown - no way I'm going to spend even 2 days in quarantine for a one day work trip ... let alone 2 weeks!

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Likewise for expats with children in boarding school here. Quarantine makes returning home for holidays an impossibility and also makes it next to impossible for parents to visit their children at the same time. A lot of hard decisions will need to be made if this goes on much longer.

[Lewylewylewy]

Maybe once nz and oz kill off the virus, they can join each other's bubble in level 0.5. Then as we drop to L0.4 and below, we'll be allowed to expand our bubble to join more countries in their bubbles. Until one day we're all in one big bubble (except the USA, for who we'll kindly finish trump's fence off, to surround the entire country). Then everything will be back to normal again.

[tommy_d]

Likewise for expats with children in boarding school here. Quarantine makes returning home for holidays an impossibility and also makes it next to impossible for parents to visit their children at the same time. A lot of hard decisions will need to be made if this goes on much longer.
would suck for anyone moving to germany to be with their partner mid-april 2020 eh.
oh yeah, that's right, guess i'm still here

[nztx]

Doesn't seem like any hint of 'AIR Robertson" heading into ground shuddering Nose Dive yet, looking at NZX today ..

[iceman]

Well I've just been told not to expect to be able to fly back home from Argentina until August-September at the earliest, by the Air NZ office in BA. They are going to do all they can to transfer my ticket and get me onto a LAN flight later in the year. Oh well !!!

[Snow Leopard]

Well I've just been told not to expect to be able to fly back home from Argentina until August-September at the earliest, by the Air NZ office in BA. They are going to do all they can to transfer my ticket and get me onto a LAN flight later in the year. Oh well !!!

That is probably majorly bad news :(

I am down & out in the UK until a few borders reopen for me.

[iceman]

That is probably majorly bad news :(

I am down & out in the UK until a few borders reopen for me.

Yes sure is bad news, but not much we can do about it mate other than wait for some resemblance of normality to return. Lots of people worse of in the World at the moment !
I'm saddened AIR does not plan to start the AKL-EZE route again which means no direct flights between NZ and Argentina.

[Balance]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/04/air-new-zealand-voted-most-trusted-brand-in-australia-and-new-zealand.html

Still the most trusted brand in Australasia.

Well done, Air New Zealand!

[dreamcatcher]

Goldman downgrades AIR to sell from NZ$1.21 to........... $0.51cents

Will the SP bubble burst as reality regarding valuation kicks in

[Balance]

Goldman downgrades AIR to sell from NZ$1.21 to........... $0.51cents

Will the SP bubble burst as reality regarding valuation kicks in

Means it's time to consider BUYING as far as I am concerned.

Bring it down, Goldmans!

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328442 AIR N.Z. @ 80 years old is almost back to where it all started....includes some interesting comments from head of E Tui union Savage that demonstrate he has very little understanding of the commercial reality the company faces. Reasonable look back at the history, well written by Grant Bradley, well respected aviation writer at the N.Z. Herald. (Was worth this weeks subscription to read that)

[blackcap]

Maybe AIR should be fined multiple times for breaches and execs sent to jail for repeat offences? If the woman's story is true.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300000864/coronavirus-woman-shocked-by-passengers-packed-into-air-new-zealand-flight

[Blue Skies]

On a day when NZ50 down 1.26%,... AIR up 3.07% ! Anyone know why?

Disc, no longer hold any.

[Snow Leopard]

On a day when NZ50 down 1.26%,... AIR up 3.07% ! Anyone know why?

Disc, no longer hold any.

It appears that AIR can still pack them in:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300000864/coronavirus-woman-shocked-by-physical-distancing-issues-on-air-new-zealand-flight

Got to be good news, right?

[blackcap]

It appears that AIR can still pack them in:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300000864/coronavirus-woman-shocked-by-physical-distancing-issues-on-air-new-zealand-flight

Got to be good news, right?

Like Sardines in a can. 78 cm spacing between passengers. Seems like one law for us, one for them? Genuinely confused.

[winner69]

April was one of the best months it has had since it was formed

AIR WAS THE BEST PERFORMER

[Zaphod]

Good to see Winston mouthing off prematurely as usual.

Winston Peters hints at big changes for Air NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

Personally I can't wait to fly Air Winston or Air NZ First Airways. What could possibly go wrong?

[Waltzing]

As musk heads for mars and his new mining colony. Complete with totally automated interplantery space rockets (auto landing already mastered) back to the future make NZ great again Peter the Great nationalises AIR NZ and orders a new fleet of Air ships from BEA systems......

[traineeinvestor]

On a day when NZ50 down 1.26%,... AIR up 3.07% ! Anyone know why?

Disc, no longer hold any.


Shorts closing their positions?

No idea.

[Cyclical]

Good to see Winston mouthing off prematurely as usual.

I don't know, it sounds about right to me, it's what many of us have been talking about for the last few weeks. The only premature bit will be if AIR can survive until post election and if Peters actually forms part of the government after that...

[Beagle]

Like Sardines in a can. 78 cm spacing between passengers. Seems like one law for us, one for them? Genuinely confused.I thought protocol is supposed to be 2 metres ? Even if its one metre in a workplace ? obviously 78 cm's is a direct breech that's occurring on virtually every flight. How on earth is that safe ?

Worse still the seat width on these economy seats is just 17.2 inches, (43 cm's), then even leaving the centre seat of a row of three vacant you are potentially only 43 cm from a complete stranger who might have Covid 19. Surely this is a complete farce ! Why is it being sanctioned by the Govt ? How are the public supposed to respect level 3 protocols when a Govt controlled airline does not respect them ?

How on earth are AIR going to cope with the increasingly fractious industrial relations disaster that appears to be unfolding ? https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/companies/air-nz-crews-hoping-to-halt-redundancies-until-alert-level-2/ar-BB13lNRw?ocid=spartandhp What a fiasco.

[Benny1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328442 AIR N.Z. @ 80 years old is almost back to where it all started....includes some interesting comments from head of E Tui union Savage that demonstrate he has very little understanding of the commercial reality the company faces. Reasonable look back at the history, well written by Grant Bradley, well respected aviation writer at the N.Z. Herald. (Was worth this weeks subscription to read that)

From having been to a few meetings where Mr "Savage" was present, I doubt he has much understanding of anything!

Disc: NOT a member of his union!

[Beagle]

Good to see Winston mouthing off prematurely as usual.

Winston Peters hints at big changes for Air NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

Personally I can't wait to fly Air Winston or Air NZ First Airways. What could possibly go wrong?

Maybe Shane Jones could throw in some of his regional lolly scramble money ? He might listen to Winston, he doesn't seem to listen to anyone else !

[bull....]

Peters said he still wanted to run Air New Zealand along "business lines," but not as it is traditionally understood.
Instead of the company providing value to its shareholders and itself, Peters wanted it to be looked at in terms of the value it added to the wider regional economy.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

no big profits for years or dividends , its a not for profit community service now

[Blue Skies]

Peters said he still wanted to run Air New Zealand along "business lines," but not as it is traditionally understood.
Instead of the company providing value to its shareholders and itself, Peters wanted it to be looked at in terms of the value it added to the wider regional economy.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz


no big profits for years or dividends , its a not for profit community service now


You would think that should be setting off multiple alarm bells for remaining shareholders. But from some of the comments I've read on other websites, I think many interpret it as being the govt will have to save the airline & incorrectly deduce it will therefore have to bail the shareholders out so they can't lose.
Anyone else seeing that?
Only thing I can think of thats holding up the SP at mo, unless its the talk of reopening travel border with Australia.

[blackcap]

Surely this is a complete farce ! Why is it being sanctioned by the Govt ? How are the public supposed to respect level 3 protocols when a Govt controlled airline does not respect them ?
.

Personally I don't give a crap about the spacing and I have let people closer than 2m to me. Does not bother me. But what does bother me is the government telling us ad naseaum that we must keep our distance and then an entity which they own blatantly flouts this rule. You are so right, the respect from me (and many others) for the level 3 rules is long gone.

As an aside, a good friend of mine went hunting with his kids during level 4 lockdown. He told a policeman friend (past the fact) of his who thought it was the funniets thing.

[Bjauck]

Personally I don't give a crap about the spacing and I have let people closer than 2m to me. Does not bother me. But what does bother me is the government telling us ad naseaum that we must keep our distance and then an entity which they own blatantly flouts this rule. You are so right, the respect from me (and many others) for the level 3 rules is long gone.

As an aside, a good friend of mine went hunting with his kids during level 4 lockdown. He told a policeman friend (past the fact) of his who thought it was the funniets thing.

It sounds a bit risky. Do you have vulnerable people in your bubble?

I imagine there are people who do not think any level of Covid rules don't apply to them.

Unfortunately, I do not imagine that lockdown regulations and/or the enforcement of them will be any fairer than other system of laws and regulations. Also, you always get people who will follow both the letter and spirit of regulations, and you will always get others who will not.

[Leftfield]

Personally I don't give a crap about the spacing and I have let people closer than 2m to me. Does not bother me. ....
As an aside, a good friend of mine went hunting with his kids during level 4 lockdown. He told a policeman friend (past the fact) of his who thought it was the funniets thing.

And no doubt you will be the first to complain and blame the Govt if NZ has to go back to level 4 lock-down and the economic downturn worsens.

FWIW in my area Kiwi's are taking their responsibilities v seriously. Pity you aren't.

[blackcap]

It sounds a bit risky. Do you have vulnerable people in your bubble?

I imagine there are people who do not think any level of Covid rules don't apply to them.

Unfortunately, I do not imagine that lockdown regulations and/or the enforcement of them will be any fairer than other system of laws and regulations. Also, you always get people who will follow both the letter and spirit of regulations, and you will always get others who will not.

The whole point is, why should I listen to the words of those in power when their deeds tell a different story?

[blackcap]

And no doubt you will be the first to complain and blame the Govt if NZ has to go back to level 4 lock-down and the economic downturn worsens.

FWIW in my area Kiwi's are taking their responsibilities v seriously. Pity you aren't.

You misread my post. I take other peoples concerns seriously. I will offer a 2m distance and will not invade other's bubbles if there is no consent. But if others choose to get closer to me that does not bother me one bit. So yes I am taking my responsibility seriously, but I understand why others are not.

[Leftfield]

The whole point is, why should I listen to the words of those in power when their deeds tell a different story?

And no doubt you will be the first to complain and blame the Govt if NZ has to go back to level 4 lock-down and the economic downturn worsens.

FWIW in my area Kiwi's are taking their responsibilities v seriously. Pity you aren't.

[Bjauck]

Peters said he still wanted to run Air New Zealand along "business lines," but not as it is traditionally understood.
Instead of the company providing value to its shareholders and itself, Peters wanted it to be looked at in terms of the value it added to the wider regional economy.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

no big profits for years or dividends , its a not for profit community service now Without exceptions for air travel, It will be tough as social distancing requirements will make air travel a rich person's form of transport. If the government does not like that, then it should subsidise the true cost of a ticket allowing for the 2m covid distancing required in an aircraft.

Peter's attitude does reflect a fairly common attitude in NZ politicians on both right and left. Many NZ politicians seem to think that NZ companies should act as charitable organisations administering the politicians' desired social policy yet for their prices not to reflect that.

When NZ shareholders decide they can't be donors to a charity, then foreign investors step in and become the owners, and hey presto you get our current situation of having a tiny share market and much of business being foreign controlled (and NZers investing in expensive land instead!)

[Bjauck]

The whole point is, why should I listen to the words of those in power when their deeds tell a different story? Doing a David Clark?

I understand and it has always been the "Do as I say not as I do!"

[blackcap]

And no doubt you will be the first to complain and blame the Govt if NZ has to go back to level 4 lock-down and the economic downturn worsens.

FWIW in my area Kiwi's are taking their responsibilities v seriously. Pity you aren't.

As I said before, I actually am taking my responsibility seriously, but in my post I meant the royal "I" as in the populace. Yes I personally am following the law, almost to the letter, even though I disagree with it. But I can really understand why so many are not when there are so many conflicted signals out there. AIR being one of the larger ones and more visible that is obviously flouting the law.

[Blue Skies]

[QUOTE=blackcap;812078]Personally I don't give a crap about the spacing and I have let people closer than 2m to me. Does not bother me. But what does bother me is the government telling us ad naseaum that we must keep our distance and then an entity which they own blatantly flouts this rule. You are so right, the respect from me (and many others) for the level 3 rules is long gone.



The moral outrage & anger being expressed by some on here is absurd.
If as is implied, you (& others) have such a highly evolved moral & ethical sensibilities that you've lost all respect for the Govt's Public Health advice (Level 3 rules) & are therefore justified in ignoring them, due to the apparent inadequacy of AIR's spaced seating plan, there's something v wrong.

Yes yes, I get it, AIR's spaced seating plan doesn't quite match the letter of the guidelines, but for all practical purposes & in context where people aren't moving around & there's hospital grade air recirculation & there a barrier between the person in front & behind, it probably does achieve or surpass the same levels of safety.

Some of the good things to come out of this awful crisis are the inspiring stories of so many people in NZ helping each other & pulling together to achieve what is widely recognised as one of the best results in the entire world.
While there will always be a small percentage who will never be team players ( personality types now categorised as 'resistors') & deliberately flout the rules, its not something I would have thought wise to brag about.
Please think again & help us all eradicate Covad 19 from NZ as quickly as possible.
It only takes a few to sink the whole ship & send us right back to where we started.

[Benny1]

Peters said he still wanted to run Air New Zealand along "business lines," but not as it is traditionally understood.
Instead of the company providing value to its shareholders and itself, Peters wanted it to be looked at in terms of the value it added to the wider regional economy.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

no big profits for years or dividends , its a not for profit community service now

Cool... Means they can bring the engineering work back from Singapore now... Major Shareholder (the government) very quick to promote buy local and support local... But still send work themselves overseas...

[Blue Skies]

As I said before, I actually am taking my responsibility seriously, but in my post I meant the royal "I" as in the populace. Yes I personally am following the law, almost to the letter, even though I disagree with it. But I can really understand why so many are not when there are so many conflicted signals out there. AIR being one of the larger ones and more visible that is obviously flouting the law.


Thanks Blackcap, great to see you are personally taking responsibilities seriously.

[bull....]

Cool... Means they can bring the engineering work back from Singapore now... Major Shareholder (the government) very quick to promote buy local and support local... But still send work themselves overseas...

be a good move , the nz manufacturing hub that was in NZ was world class.

[blackcap]

[QUOTE=blackcap;812078]


Yes yes, I get it, AIR's spaced seating plan doesn't quite match the letter of the guidelines, but for all practical purposes & in context where people aren't moving around & there's hospital grade air recirculation & there a barrier between the person in front & behind, it probably does achieve or surpass the same levels of safety.


Then why have laws at all Blue Skies? The 2m spacing is part of the Health Act that was signed by Ashley Bloomfield. Who decides when exemptions to the law are applicable? The seating plan does not quite match the letter of the guidelines? Pull the other one. You can almost get 3 x 78 cm pitch seats in a 2m space and as Beagle pointed out the 43 cm taking out the middle row... well 200 cm and 43cm is some difference. Packed in like sardines. I don't get it at all. Why have laws when they are selectively enforced? And as for labeling people (resistors), I tend to find that goes into deep dark holes and is very dangerous. A certain dictator back in the 30's also tried to put labels on people.

Anyway enough from me on this topic. AIR is still way overvalued as I see it because even flying at 60% capacity domestically they will be losing money hand over fist. Not sure what they are going to do with their 777 and 787's in the meantime either.

[Cyclical]

As an aside, a good friend of mine went hunting with his kids during level 4 lockdown. He told a policeman friend (past the fact) of his who thought it was the funniets thing.

Some relations of mine decided to have a nice family get together for one of their birthdays under level 4, with at least one side already having a pretty extended bubble. The most disappointing thing is that one of them is a copper.

[justakiwi]

I would have reported them. Especially given that one of them was a cop.


Some relations of mine decided to have a nice family get together for one of their birthdays under level 4, with at least one side already having a pretty extended bubble. The most disappointing thing is that one of them is a copper.

[Cyclical]

I would have reported them. Especially given that one of them was a cop.

Yeah, that wouldn't cause a major family rift or anything...

[Zaphod]

Cool... Means they can bring the engineering work back from Singapore now... Major Shareholder (the government) very quick to promote buy local and support local... But still send work themselves overseas...

And increased costs to boot, which will then be met by the taxpayer and customer rendering the airline uncompetitive. There's no magic solution.

[Zaphod]

Maybe Shane Jones could throw in some of his regional lolly scramble money ? He might listen to Winston, he doesn't seem to listen to anyone else !

I suspect they'll want yet another pool for Air NZ. It'll probably be part of the next coalition deal, if NZ First makes the grade. Mind you, where is Shane's slush fund going to come from now that the economy has tanked? Maybe he'll have to check behind the couch for loose change (subsequently steralised of course)

[Zaphod]

I don't know, it sounds about right to me, it's what many of us have been talking about for the last few weeks. The only premature bit will be if AIR can survive until post election and if Peters actually forms part of the government after that...

Peter's will want uneconomic sectors to be serviced, potentially with good frequency. This means that the taxpayer will be continually milked, and if a GFC or another even strikes again, we'll see a similar milking. So are we going to be better off under public ownership or a command & control based system where the government dictates to Air NZ? I don't think the answer is clear cut. But the real winner of this will be Winston, who will be hailed as a hero.

[Beagle]

Lets have a look at the facts.
1. There are a large number of planes sitting around, nobody can dispute this.
2. Demand is incredibly low, (also not in dispute)
3. Distance guidelines are 2 metre's not 43 cm's (which is the distance you are from someone in the isle seat if you're in the window seat of an A320 with nobody in the middle seat).

What would they have to do to at least pretend they are trying to comply ?
a) Only the window seat on each side of the plane is used.
b) Every second row only.

So with 30, (from memory) rows of seats on an A320 only 15 rows would be used and only 2 people in each seated in window seats. = 30 passengers maximum.
That would get you at least 78 cm x 2 = 156 cm's from anyone else on board which seems far more reasonable than 43 cm's.
Doing this you will get 2 people sitting in the space normally 12 people would sit in and that's just 16.67% loading.

Why is this a problem ? Obviously this isn't a commercial money maker but for a very short period of time when there's a huge number of aircraft sitting around idle and they're mainly running a skeleton domestic schedule the only reason this isn't done, lets just be honest about it, is financial.

So its okay for AIR to play Russian roulette with people's health because its financially expedient to do so and they're losing so much money already ? Does anyone else think this is NOT OKAY ? Lots of other business's are losing lots of money too, so why are they not allowed to break the rules then ?, (because they're not majority Govt owned ?).

This is a seriously stuffed-up situation, (was going to use an f word there but stuffed will do)

The above is why I won't fly anywhere in the foreseeable future. Maybe if we get 20 days in a row with no new cases I might reconsider. I doubt that's going to happen anytime soon so as far as I am concerned car travel has never looked more attractive.

[blackcap]

So its okay for AIR to play Russian roulette with people's health because its financial expedient to do so and they're losing so much money already ? Does anyone else think this is NOT OKAY ?

.

I'm with you and think its not OK. But plenty of other people seem to think this flouting of the law is ok because "we are all in this together you know". Crazy that AIR are blatantly allowed to break the law an no one bats an eyelid, yet when others break the law all hell breaks loose.

Maybe the government owned assets are subject to alternative laws?

[mikeybycrikey]

Personally I don't give a crap about the spacing and I have let people closer than 2m to me. Does not bother me. But what does bother me is the government telling us ad naseaum that we must keep our distance and then an entity which they own blatantly flouts this rule. You are so right, the respect from me (and many others) for the level 3 rules is long gone.


Personally, I don't think that AIR is flouting the rules. The COVID NZ website says "Physical distancing of two metres outside home (including on public transport), or one metre in controlled environments like schools and workplaces."

Although a plane is probably a form of public transport, but it is also a controlled environment where they know exactly who you are sitting near. If someone on the plane were to be infected, the MOH could find you. On a bus or train that is much less likely. I guess the problem with all these rules are at the boundaries.

Part of the point of these restrictions is to slow the spread, but another important part is the contact tracing. If you can trace people you have had contact with then why not get those people closer together.

Obviously, the general appetite for these restrictions is going to fade with time. It's hard to keep all this up when there are basically no new cases in the country.

[justakiwi]

OK, so reporting them might be the last resort but at the very least I would have made it absolutely clear that I was not happy about their decision. I would have also spoken to the cop and given him/her a reality check. He/she was putting his colleagues at risk, not to mention members of the public.

Fortunately my family have more brains. My granddaughter turned 10 the other day. She had an amazing birthday within the family bubble in spite of nobody being able to buy her gifts for the day. It was also a very valuable life lesson for her and her siblings.


Yeah, that wouldn't cause a major family rift or anything...

[Blue Skies]

Good point raised by mikybycriky re the clearly spelt out Govt 2 meter rule applying to uncontrolled environments & 1 meter (or even less ) distancing rule applying to controlled spaces like work places, medical centres or schools.
Although AIR obviously categorised as transport, it's a highly controlled environment.

Without wanting to get too pedantic & knowing this is not going to necessarily appease those furious with AIR's apparent breach of the distancing guidelines, but the distance between the heads of 2 people seated in a window seat and an aisle seat is actually 1 metre allowing for arm rests, and not the .43 cm being posted here.
That may make some feel a little more reassured.

The middle Airbus seats for domestic are 48.6 cm wide & the window & aisle seats 46.4 cm wide.

[stoploss]

Good point raised by mikybycriky re the clearly spelt out Govt 2 meter rule applying to uncontrolled environments & 1 meter (or even less ) distancing rule applying to controlled spaces like work places, medical centres or schools.
Although AIR obviously categorised as transport, it's a highly controlled environment.

Without wanting to get too pedantic & knowing this is not going to necessarily appease those furious with AIR's apparent breach of the distancing guidelines, but the distance between the heads of 2 people seated in a window seat and an aisle seat is actually 1 metre allowing for arm rests, and not the .43 cm being posted here.
That may make some feel a little more reassured.

The middle Airbus seats for domestic are 48.6 cm wide & the window & aisle seats 46.4 cm wide.
What if someone walks up or down the aisle to the toilet , or you have an infected crew member ( with no symptons) walking up and down multiple times, multiple flights .... that's where it gets real .
.......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiPPl8o3znQ

[Bjauck]

[...
Yes yes, I get it, AIR's spaced seating plan doesn't quite match the letter of the guidelines, but for all practical purposes & in context where people aren't moving around & there's hospital grade air recirculation & there a barrier between the person in front & behind, it probably does achieve or surpass the same levels of safety.
...
Unless they have changed the economy seating arrangements, there is not much of a barrier between rows. If someone sneezes or coughs behind you, you will get a blast of the emission from the gaps and above the seats before the air recirculation could intervene. The only context I see for allowing a breach of the 2m distancing is cost. And that is not even taking into account embarking and disembarking arrangements and passengers moving from seats during the journey.

What its the distance between rows in Air NZ economy? What is the distance between heads when the seat in front is reclined? Is it less than one metre?

Answered my own question. There is just 0.73m between rows on an A320!
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/seat-map-airbus-a320neo-165i

[Blue Skies]

Unless they have changed the economy seating arrangements, there is not much of a barrier between rows. If someone sneezes or coughs behind you, you will get a blast of the emission from the gaps and above the seats before the air recirculation could intervene. The only context I see for allowing a breach of the 2m distancing is cost. And that is not even taking into account embarking and disembarking arrangements and passengers moving from seats during the journey.

What its the distance between rows in Air NZ economy? What is the distance between heads when the seat in front is reclined? Is it less than one metre?

Answered my own question. There is just 0.73m between rows on an A320!
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/seat-map-airbus-a320neo-165i


Haha, ok I yield.
Ouch, just lost my wicket, feel like I'm a nightwatchman batsman on here surviving a series of bouncers, yorkers and full tosses from the worlds fastest bowlers.

[Jaa]

You guys have lost the plot :confused:

I haven't heard of any other airline in the world doing any compulsory social distancing like Air NZ is. Sure they will space out passengers if the plane isn't full, but they aren't going to lose money flying with empty seats.

US airlines are just coming round to making air hostesses wear masks...

Bit of perspective required.

[Cyclical]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328577

"With markets on the rise again, investment bankers will be sure to encourage companies thinking of a capital raising to seize the moment.
One market player even suggested Air New Zealand would do better to replace its Government loan with a capital raising, given the high interest rate on the loan."

Cunning plan given AIR's crazy price atm...why not cash in on it. In fact you'd think the government would encourage it to remove some of the burden/risk away from the taxpayer. But then I guess they would have to be participants at a price that they know is too much...and therefore it's better to sit and wait.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328577

"With markets on the rise again, investment bankers will be sure to encourage companies thinking of a capital raising to seize the moment.
One market player even suggested Air New Zealand would do better to replace its Government loan with a capital raising, given the high interest rate on the loan."

Cunning plan given AIR's crazy price atm...why not cash in on it. In fact you'd think the government would encourage it to remove some of the burden/risk away from the taxpayer. But then I guess they would have to be participants at a price that they know is too much...and therefore it's better to sit and wait.

What would they be saying though on Earnings, Dividends & Low Activity for short to medium term to justify any Cap Raise price ?

Whatever they said may well knock the stuffing out of the price fairly substantially - as would a deeply discounted CR price for new shares

Interest in AIR may then evaporate faster than one of their 'Bubbles of Debt with Wings' can descend onto the tarmac...

[Waltzing]

with labour in charge AIR NZ doesn't stand a chance. Winston Peters the Great is a through back to the 1930's

[mikeybycrikey]

with labour in charge AIR NZ doesn't stand a chance. Winston Peters the Great is a through back to the 1930's

Ah, yes, that great and well-known Labour politician Winston Peters.

[Zaphod]

"He said it was "nonsense" to suggest the Government's $900m loan to Air New Zealand could not be tagged to support facilities like the Nelson maintenance facility."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/300002210/leaders-to-meet-air-nz-to-discuss-saving-nelson-jobs

Yes, well why not? The $900m covers existing operational costs, so why not just expand it out to include additional costs like requiring them to return to running non-economic sectors, or continuing to service Q300's at NSN even though the operational lifespans of those planes are reaching the end.

I'm sure Winston will be all on board with this given his previous comments.

[Raz]

You guys have lost the plot :confused:

I haven't heard of any other airline in the world doing any compulsory social distancing like Air NZ is. Sure they will space out passengers if the plane isn't full, but they aren't going to lose money flying with empty seats.

US airlines are just coming round to making air hostesses wear masks...

Bit of perspective required.

It is telling where perceived risk and expectations from NZ consumers will be at..nothing good for AIR travel.

[nztx]

Ah, yes, that great and well-known Labour politician Winston Peters.

Isn't it interesting how Jones is keeping his mouth shut -- Has Peters the Great instructed that Jones be muzzled on everything AIR .. ? ;)

[winner69]

Our man Cam worried about huge job losses and falling house prices

@CamWallace_NZ
Yes, and plenty of discretionary consumer spending, including unfortunately travel, is generated via the wealth effect driven by the residential housing market.

[Leftfield]

Warren Buffet on their recent sale of BH's entire stakes in USA airlines. See it here. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-airlines/berkshire-sells-entire-stakes-in-u-s-airlines-buffett-idUSKBN22E0VP)

Stating the obvious IMHO, but perhaps news to many USA investors who can't see anything beyond the USA borders.

(Disc - don't hold AIR.)

[Cyclical]

Warren Buffet on their recent sale of BH's entire stakes in USA airlines. See it here. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-airlines/berkshire-sells-entire-stakes-in-u-s-airlines-buffett-idUSKBN22E0VP)

Stating the obvious IMHO, but perhaps news to many USA investors who can't see anything beyond the USA borders.

(Disc - don't hold AIR.)

There are some quite pertinent quotes in that article, like this one:

“We made that decision in terms of the airline business. We took money out of the business basically even at a substantial loss,” Buffett said. “We will not fund a company that — where we think that it is going to chew up money in the future.”

Interestingly, Delta is only about 50% off this year's high...not that dissimilar to AIR. Haven't looked at that the others.

[STONKS_ONLY_GO_UP]

If Buffett has made an industry wide call, the Sharesies warriors will be out dumping tomorrow. Air NZ is kill confirmed.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Warren Buffet on their recent sale of BH's entire stakes in USA airlines. See it here. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-airlines/berkshire-sells-entire-stakes-in-u-s-airlines-buffett-idUSKBN22E0VP)

Stating the obvious IMHO, but perhaps news to many USA investors who can't see anything beyond the USA borders.



The Sage of Omaha old Warren has popped the canopy and pulled the ejector seat cord on the airline industry.

I wonder if our captain of industry Robbo has the smarts to do the same with Cullen Airlines.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

I told him when he was thinking of buying them:

"Warren", I said, "You will never make your money back".

But did he listen?

[samjaynz]

If Buffett has made an industry wide call, the Sharesies warriors will be out dumping tomorrow. Air NZ is kill confirmed.

Team Sharesies may find it is a lot easier to 'play Buffet' when the market is going up than when it is going down.

[peat]

i seem to recall ironically quoting when I heard Buffet getting into airlines 'coz this time its different'

[peat]

FROM 2006 just to back up my point



The airline industry is something I would not advise most people to be exposed to in any portfolio, super high beta factors, too many unpredictables, and thin margins that blow up in a nanosecond.

[dobby41]

i seem to recall ironically quoting when I heard Buffet getting into airlines 'coz this time its different'

2007 he said that airlines should have been shot at birth (actually the first flight should have been shot out of the air), 2016 they are great and I'm buying, 2020 they are dead in the water and getting rid of them.

[Balance]

2007 he said that airlines should have been shot at birth (actually the first flight should have been shot out of the air), 2016 they are great and I'm buying, 2020 they are dead in the water and getting rid of them.

All in the timing - anyone who bought airlines in 2010s did very very well.

[Waltzing]

surely while its to early to talk about a recovery in this business. This government is simple not going to be able to move this copmany back into a profitable state. Not one single member of the government is business friendly and typhoon tywford or what ever his name is, is simple a hopeless person to be anywhere near business processes. Beagle was right to short this stock and i should have sold earlier and joined him.. But there will come a day when this might be a tradeable stock rather than an investment. It may be 5 years away but it will return from the dead like Lazarus .

[dobby41]

All in the timing - anyone who bought airlines in 2010s did very very well.

It always is isn't it!

[Blue Skies]

i seem to recall ironically quoting when I heard Buffet getting into airlines 'coz this time its different'


To be fair, it was different & the future looked promising.
However, the biggest threat to the airlines as I said a few years back after Ebola, was always going to be a future pandemic.
Can't run your life totally avoiding the risks of 1 in 100 year events like pandemics & earthquakes though.

[peat]

To be fair, it was different & the future looked promising.


I hope it doesn't sound too unreasonable but I disagree.
What you are saying is just a variation on 'this time it's different'.
You know what they say about boats being holes in the ocean into which you pour your money - well airlines are like boats but worse.

[macduffy]

Different factors at play but the same risk. No-one was foreseeing Covid-19 but budget airlines were around and gaining market share, not in the USA perhaps but cutting swathes in the profitability of many bigger airlines.

[whatsup]

My sister is a director of a U K broking firm, told me once, DO NOT HOLD AIRLINE COMPANIES , "only trade them", I didn't own any now I understand , so does Buffet !!

[Tomtom]

Not an environmentalist but I've always thought a carbon tax would be the thing that kills airline profitability in the long term. I seem to recall AIR alone was responsible for about 5.2% of New Zealands greenhouse gas emissions.

[Flugenbear]

You know what they say about boats being holes in the ocean into which you pour your money - well airlines are like boats but worse.

If it floats, flies, or f**ks...you're better off to rent it.

[emveha]

You can't say that Winston Peters doesn't have Air New Zealand's interests at heart: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300005725/tasmanian-premier-nz-deputy-pm-excited-about-idea-of-flights-to-hobart

[Zaphod]

Tasmania is certainly on our hit list, and it'd be good not to have to fly via MEL, however this isn't WP's idea so I'm not sure what the implication is that he has Air NZ's interests at heart?

[winner69]

Share price should take off with all this talk about TT travel sooner than later

Rob will sort it out...no worries

[Zaphod]

Take off in which direction though? Talk of TT services could provide a short term boost, but the underlying financials don't IMO support this SP, even with some TT capacity.

[winner69]

Take off in which direction though? Talk of TT services could provide a short term boost, but the underlying financials don't IMO support this SP, even with some TT capacity.

Share price not driven by financials at the moment ...excitment of better times is what matters

[nztx]

Share price not driven by financials at the moment ...excitment of better times is what matters


Are we at enough bookings to fill two of 'Robertson AIR's' big birds daily yet .. or are they still working on it ? ;)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330194

Looks like the days of cheap airfares are over. Less pax per plane, more cost per passenger.

[blackcap]

Leading by example again I see:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300007052/air-nz-passengers-left-upset-and-scared-after-physical-distancing-rules-not-followed-on-flight

[nztx]

There must less Hot Air thermals around to keep the big birds flying up high - probably the onset of Winter with Skis all parked up in the cupboard seems to be showing through ..

[iceman]

Leading by example again I see:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300007052/air-nz-passengers-left-upset-and-scared-after-physical-distancing-rules-not-followed-on-flight

Easy to criticise AIR here but what about all those silly passengers in the photo ! Not many of them seem to be taking any extra care themselves. Idiotic.
I see today that AIR has decided to fire only 300 pilots and keep 900. Do they really need to keep 900 ?

[Sideshow Bob]

Easy to criticise AIR here bvut what about all those silly passengers in the photo ! Not many of them seem to be taking any extra care themselves. Idiotic.
I see today that AIR has decided to fire only 300 pilots and keep 900. Do they really need to keep 900 ?

If they were going to be absolutely strict on the 2m, then they wouldn't even be 25% full, and you couldn't have people in every row.

But may because AIR is majority government owned, it's OK...…??

[Tomtom]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330194

Looks like the days of cheap airfares are over. Less pax per plane, more cost per passenger. I don't know what the configuration would support but could they pull all the premium seats out of the unused wide body jets and swap them with economy seats in other jets? If you are cutting out middle seat revenue anyway...

[Raz]

Easy to criticise AIR here but what about all those silly passengers in the photo ! Not many of them seem to be taking any extra care themselves. Idiotic.
I see today that AIR has decided to fire only 300 pilots and keep 900. Do they really need to keep 900 ?

Good article that covers the union deal..I would be pissed if I was a shareholder..other agendas afoot.

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/air-new-zealand-jet-pilots-take-30-pay-cut-300-laid

[Cyclical]

Good article that covers the union deal..I would be pissed if I was a shareholder..other agendas afoot.

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/air-new-zealand-jet-pilots-take-30-pay-cut-300-laid

Wow. While it's great that only 25% are losing their jobs, it's not a great result for the shareholders, tax payers or customers is it. A wasted opportunity to make this a lean and mean airline that can compete on the global stage. At this rate they'll be knocked off by Quantas or a newer and sharper version of Virgin.

[Blue Skies]

Good article that covers the union deal..I would be pissed if I was a shareholder..other agendas afoot.

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/air-new-zealand-jet-pilots-take-30-pay-cut-300-laid


Wow, captains on a base salary of $330,00 with allowances on top of that seems right at the top of the pay scale esp when compared to the going pay rates for pilots in the US.
A 30% cut will only bring them into line with what captains in many other airlines earn.
Should be able to scrape by on $231,000 plus allowances a year from a business on life support.

[nztx]

Wow, captains on a base salary of $330,00 with allowances on top of that seems right at the top of the pay scale esp when compared to the going pay rates for pilots in the US.
A 30% cut will only bring them into line with what captains in many other airlines earn.
Should be able to scape by on $231,000 plus allowances a year from a business on life support.

Some of us must have made wrong Career choices somewhere to not be flying the Big Birds .. ;)

[Raz]

Wow, captains on a base salary of $330,00 with allowances on top of that seems right at the top of the pay scale esp when compared to the going pay rates for pilots in the US.
A 30% cut will only bring them into line with what captains in many other airlines earn.
Should be able to scrape by on $231,000 plus allowances a year from a business on life support.

It says pilots made redundant or those furloughed would be first called back if things pick up as well..for ten years...suggests to me this cost structure is locked in and we know the seniority system means the highest cannot be let go as no short term cashflow advantage in that.

Air's pilots are in essence a protected group with Government backing and those remaining are protected positions, at the minority shareholders and taxpayers expense. Much like in the health field any money going into these sectors first and foremost goes to those in the protected positions.

Their terms and conditions are totally union negotiated, rather than anywhere near market reality.

[iceman]

It says pilots made redundant or those furloughed would be first called back if things pick up as well..for ten years...suggests to me this cost structure is locked in and we know the seniority system means the highest cannot be let go as no short term cashflow advantage in that.

Air's pilots are in essence a protected group with Government backing and those remaining are protected positions, at the minority shareholders and taxpayers expense. Much like in the health field any money going into these sectors first and foremost goes to those in the protected positions.

Their terms and conditions are totally union negotiated, rather than anywhere near market reality.

Well said. It is a ridiculous situation. The Government should be helping AIR to fire the senior Captains who often earn up to 3x more than the junior pilots that they are letting go. This is a fundamental mistake they are making, for the future of this airline.

[Jay]

I'm more wondering why are all these people going to the States????

[Zaphod]

Well said. It is a ridiculous situation. The Government should be helping AIR to fire the senior Captains who often earn up to 3x more than the junior pilots that they are letting go. This is a fundamental mistake they are making, for the future of this airline.

I understand where you're coming from, but consider that it's certainly the industry norm to provide senior staff with more stability. If you removed that for AirNZ, then piolts will naturally gravitate towards companies that still provide it.

It's also worth considering that retaining those with the most experience will allow those staff to impart their skills onto the less experienced pilots. So IME (I've been involved in an organization at senior management level that made similar decisions during the GFC) cutting the top earners first doesn't make good sense, and can lead to some tricky personal grievance lawsuits.

[Zaphod]

Wow, captains on a base salary of $330,00 with allowances on top of that seems right at the top of the pay scale esp when compared to the going pay rates for pilots in the US.
A 30% cut will only bring them into line with what captains in many other airlines earn.
Should be able to scrape by on $231,000 plus allowances a year from a business on life support.

The top tier US pilots on LH sectors can earn over NZ$600K + perks + Bonus. The median base was (last time I researched this) around US$190K, which is about $310K + bonus structure which is more prevalent in the US than NZ. Some smaller and budget airlines tend to pull the figures down, as they pay well below the norm, but consequently are used as a stepping stone to major carriers (UAL, AA, etc.)

[winner69]

Air NZ top of list re corporate brand reputation

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12329996

[Brain]

I don’t understand why these positions are paid so much. Sure you need mentally stable and physically fit people but flying a modern jet cannot be that hard. What are the bonuses for. These guys fly from B to A and A to B , no customer interaction no sales forecasts to meet no manufacturing efficiencies to attain no profit targets. A bit similar to my local bus driver. (Ok I have taken that a bit far )

[dobby41]

Well said. It is a ridiculous situation. The Government should be helping AIR to fire the senior Captains who often earn up to 3x more than the junior pilots that they are letting go. This is a fundamental mistake they are making, for the future of this airline.

We should just keep the cheapest pilots.
If they don't sit in the left seat yet just move them.
Experiance - who needs that in a tin can in the sky. :t_up:
:scared:

[macduffy]

We should just keep the cheapest pilots.
If they don't sit in the left seat yet just move them.
Experiance - who needs that in a tin can in the sky. :t_up:
:scared:

Careful, there! Just remember that although air accidents don't often happen, when they do they usually have tragic consequences.

[dobby41]

Careful, there! Just remember that although air accidents don't often happen, when they do they usually have tragic consequences.

And if I'm in the plane when something bad happens I want the most experiance pilot looking after it.

[macduffy]

And if I'm in the plane when something bad happens I want the most experiance pilot looking after it.

Indeed! Sorry to admit that your earlier sarcasm was lost on me!

:blush:

[Beagle]

Qantas recently announced they had put 25,000 of their 30,000 staff on leave without pay and can make it through to the end of 2020 without support. Very good effort in my opinion !

Please have a look at page 67 of the 2019 annual report here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/339567/305893.pdf

What you see here is a systemic issue, (with dozens of pilots earning $400K plus), around the cost of senior pilots that's a FAR bigger issue than the cost of head office staff.

In my view the company has wasted an ideal opportunity to effect a badly needed cost reset of the airline. Cuts of 30% should be permanent right across the board on anyone earning more than $250K. If you don't like it, see you later. I think there's every chance Qantas come out of this in far better shape than AIR and a reinvigorated Virgin with a lean cost structure could cause trouble down the track.

The culture of entitlement within the company fuelled by E Tui union leader "Savage" will put minority shareholders in a very invidious position going forward in terms of its lack of competitiveness.

On another subject. Am I the only one that was surprised it took Buffett until April to sell his stake in the airlines ? Its highly likely the size of his stakes caused a long delay in executing these transactions. A valuable pointer for quick and nimble minority shareholders. Being quick and nimble and having a small stake is a real advantage in certain circumstances.

In case there's any remaining doubt, I think AIR is uninvestable going forward.

[stoploss]

I don’t understand why these positions are paid so much. Sure you need mentally stable and physically fit people but flying a modern jet cannot be that hard. What are the bonuses for. These guys fly from B to A and A to B , no customer interaction no sales forecasts to meet no manufacturing efficiencies to attain no profit targets. A bit similar to my local bus driver. (Ok I have taken that a bit far )

I'm happy for them to be paid well when its a decent old Nor Wester blowing in Wellington .
What I don't understand 900 pilots left on the roster and maybe a dozen flights a day,this needed to be cut back more to make the airline viable. You are paying them to sit around and do nothing. How will they keep their hours up ?

[850man]

In case there's any remaining doubt, I think AIR is uninvestable going forward.

I totally agree, surprised to see the SP where it is now. What are people buying, a whole lot of expensive, depreciating assets and huge team of costly, non-productive staff, revenue predictions around 5% of normal and all signs point to no change in that for a very long time.

[macduffy]

I totally agree, surprised to see the SP where it is now. What are people buying, a whole lot of expensive, depreciating assets and huge team of costly, non-productive staff, revenue predictions around 5% of normal and all signs point to no change in that for a very long time.

Are they hoping for sympathetic treatment when the govt eventually buys them out?

[Cyclical]

Meanwhile, the share price is up a couple of cents so far this morning. What a joke.

This neat little negotiation that has been done for the pilots...can the company back track on that later down the track, or do we just have to wait until they are completely driven into the ground? It's really hard to imagine how it is sustainable, and as a tax payer and a customer, I don't want to be paying for it. At least the fares should be high enough to attract some competition back in I guess...going by the ineptitude of management shown so far in this process, they probably haven't even considered the possibility of tough competition though, be that domestic or international.

[dobby41]

I'm happy for them to be paid well when its a decent old Nor Wester blowing in Wellington .
What I don't understand 900 pilots left on the roster and maybe a dozen flights a day,this needed to be cut back more to make the airline viable. You are paying them to sit around and do nothing. How will they keep their hours up ?

Could be that the company is looking out a little longer than just the dozen flights a day.
Sack them now and it may be much harder to ramp up when they can.

[Cyclical]

Are they hoping for sympathetic treatment when the govt eventually buys them out?

A little cuddle and a golden handshake...I bloody hope not. It will be a disgrace if they've tightly contracted in this arrangement only for the inevitable carry of the can by the tax payer.

[stoploss]

Could be that the company is looking out a little longer than just the dozen flights a day.
Sack them now and it may be much harder to ramp up when they can.

dobby I don't think they will be a "little longer" if they don't get the costs right down ..... ( Firmly believe the Govt will end up owning 90 % + as we need a national airline )

[Jantar]

I don’t understand why these positions are paid so much. Sure you need mentally stable and physically fit people but flying a modern jet cannot be that hard. ..It isn't that the job is hard to learn, but rather the cost of learning. My son is a captain flying for QANTAS internally, and currently stood down. He has now got his student loan down to $156,000 for learning to fly and getting all the relevant ratings.

[Cyclical]

dobby I don't think they will be a "little longer" if they don't get the costs right down ..... ( Firmly believe the Govt will end up owning 90 % + as we need a national airline )

Have we considered the prospect of no Air NZ? We don't seem to need NZ owned banks...

[Beagle]

"Learning to Fly" Couldn't resist ! We might as well have some fun with this. Enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVhNCTH8pDs

[dobby41]

Have we considered the prospect of no Air NZ? We don't seem to need NZ owned banks...

We have NZ owned banks - was thought to be a good idea.
I can't imagine an overseas airline having NZ interests at heart.

[Cyclical]

We have NZ owned banks - was thought to be a good idea.

Indeed. I'm with a "kiwi bank" and I think we all should be, but we don't need them do we.

[Brain]

It isn't that the job is hard to learn, but rather the cost of learning. My son is a captain flying for QANTAS internally, and currently stood down. He has now got his student loan down to $156,000 for learning to fly and getting all the relevant ratings.

Thanks for that. Those sort of costs will constrain pilot supply to some degree. Do you know on what basis they are paid bonuses?

[Lewylewylewy]

Hardly fair that the government could blame them for a failure when it's the government that basically stopped them trading. Surely the government holds some responsibility here?

[Lewylewylewy]

There seems to be something wrong with the idea of an island nation relying on the ability of other nations to enable us (and our tourists) to get in and out of the country. Seems like a big power to put in the hands of someone else. Or maybe that's small minded thinking? I don't know. There's definitely a risk that needs to be managed there.

[Jantar]

Thanks for that. Those sort of costs will constrain pilot supply to some degree. Do you know on what basis they are paid bonuses? No. I do know his salary, and he has mentioned a per diem for when he has to overnight away from his base, but he hasn't mentioned bonuses.

[Blue Skies]

There seems to be something wrong with the idea of an island nation relying on the ability of other nations to enable us (and our tourists) to get in and out of the country. Seems like a big power to put in the hands of someone else. Or maybe that's small minded thinking? I don't know. There's definitely a risk that needs to be managed there.


Theres no way any NZ Govt would not ensure we have a national carrier & were left at the whim of foreign carriers, at least partially due to our geographical position.
Generally speaking, NZ is an end of the line destination, i.e. with the odd exception, we are not on the way to anywhere, so we are not used as a connection point or a Hub by airlines, such as many countries in Asia, Europe, & places in N America.
The whole tourism industry & our exports esp of fresh produce would be vulnerable to decisions we had no control over.
Aside from that, its in the whole countries best interests to ensure we have a reliable national domestic carrier which can feed off both international arrivals & domestic travel & freight, serving much of the country.
Can't imagine too many foreign owned carriers serving places like Invercargill, Blenheim or Gisborne.

[Blue Skies]

It isn't that the job is hard to learn, but rather the cost of learning. My son is a captain flying for QANTAS internally, and currently stood down. He has now got his student loan down to $156,000 for learning to fly and getting all the relevant ratings.


It used to be when kids had a passion for flying but couldn't afford aero school, they would join the airforce and get paid while learning to fly. Later many of them switched to careers as highly paid commercial pilots.
That option probably doesn't exist now?

[Zaphod]

It used to be when kids had a passion for flying but couldn't afford aero school, they would join the airforce and get paid while learning to fly. Later many of them switched to careers as highly paid commercial pilots.
That option probably doesn't exist now?

Doubtful in NZ, given the lack of any real airforce capability.

[macduffy]

Doubtful in NZ, given the lack of any real airforce capability.

Not really. It was only the strike force that was disbanded.

http://www.airforce.mil.nz/about-us/what-we-do/aircraft/default.htm

[Zaphod]

Not really. It was only the strike force that was disbanded.

http://www.airforce.mil.nz/about-us/what-we-do/aircraft/default.htm

The strike force are always the primary feeder into civilian services. Not a lot of other aircraft left, which is why experienced pilot recruitment comes primarily from the international sector, or from other civilian operators. The NZ air force hardly factor in to recruitment in the private sector at all now.

[Cyclical]

The strike force are always the primary feeder into civilian services. Not a lot of other aircraft left, which is why experienced pilot recruitment comes primarily from the international sector, or from other civilian operators. The NZ air force hardly factor in to recruitment in the private sector at all now.

I remember meeting some guy in the UK about GFC time who said Easyjet or Ryanair (can't remember which) pilots used to go to Hamilton NZ to do training. Not sure if there was any truth to it.

[Zaphod]

I remember meeting some guy in the UK about GFC time who said Easyjet or Ryanair (can't remember which) pilots used to go to Hamilton NZ to do training. Not sure if there was any truth to it.

Could have been. There's a number of really good flight schools in NZ. The government made changes to the funding model back in the mid 00's, which caused a number of them to merge or close, so there aren't the total number there used to be, but the ones that are left are provide better outcomes.

[blackcap]

Could have been. There's a number of really good flight schools in NZ. The government made changes to the funding model back in the mid 00's, which caused a number of them to merge or close, so there aren't the total number there used to be, but the ones that are left are provide better outcomes.

I used to have a flatmate who came from the UK, but he came to NZ primarily for flight school. Choppers mind, but the benefits in NZ (cost and other) were just too great to miss out on.

[Jantar]

Could have been. There's a number of really good flight schools in NZ. The government made changes to the funding model back in the mid 00's, which caused a number of them to merge or close, so there aren't the total number there used to be, but the ones that are left are provide better outcomes. Yes, there are still plenty of really good flight schools in NZ. The overseas students just learn to fly with CPL, Multi engine, IFR and turbine ratings. Serious NZ students also do aviation studies, applied business management, and ATPL. So a three year course rather than 1 year.

[Raz]

Theres no way any NZ Govt would not ensure we have a national carrier & were left at the whim of foreign carriers, at least partially due to our geographical position.
Generally speaking, NZ is an end of the line destination, i.e. with the odd exception, we are not on the way to anywhere, so we are not used as a connection point or a Hub by airlines, such as many countries in Asia, Europe, & places in N America.
The whole tourism industry & our exports esp of fresh produce would be vulnerable to decisions we had no control over.
Aside from that, its in the whole countries best interests to ensure we have a reliable national domestic carrier which can feed off both international arrivals & domestic travel & freight, serving much of the country.
Can't imagine too many foreign owned carriers serving places like Invercargill, Blenheim or Gisborne.

True yet to be balanced and fair, a few sectors of the NZ economy have been hurt by AIR moves commercially in the recent past... so its not like they have been entirely supportive either or prepared to work out a commercial solution...

[Raz]

The strike force are always the primary feeder into civilian services. Not a lot of other aircraft left, which is why experienced pilot recruitment comes primarily from the international sector, or from other civilian operators. The NZ air force hardly factor in to recruitment in the private sector at all now.

It is interesting yet many airlines have a lot lower cost structure for pilots. The demand for pilots never matched supply internationally. It circles from over to under supply constantly.

[Snow Leopard]

...
What I don't understand 900 pilots left on the roster and maybe a dozen flights a day,this needed to be cut back more to make the airline viable. You are paying them to sit around and do nothing. How will they keep their hours up ?

This could be one of the more interesting problems with getting your airline up and running again, the need for pilots to have relevant current experience which in the absence of having an actual plane to chuck around the sky probably means simulator time.

Long-haul is almost certainly going to be slowest to recover, it is mostly freight work now (with some passenger jets being flown freight only because half of the worlds air freight was underneath a passenger cabin in the good old days).
When it does recover there will probably be a lot fewer A380's & B747s.

[propertynewb]

..........

[Marilyn Munroe]

Have we considered the prospect of no Air NZ? We don't seem to need NZ owned banks...

Ref my post several weeks ago where I advocated the government adopt what I call the NAC policy when in the next aviation crisis it only supports the revival of domestic passenger aviation. Kiwi based international carriers will have to face the turbulence of international aviation without any government support.,

The prospect of having no government supported international carrier arising from the ashes of the next crisis is something many have difficulty accepting.

However New Zealand gets along fine without any ownership of international ocean freight.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Government support of domestic aviation post crisis is a rock solid certainty. Can you imagine members of parliament accepting they would have to travel to Wellington by bus.

[kiora]

..........

I would hazard a guess that you have done well in the short term,well done.Great trade!
In the longer term a hold would be riskier?
If down turn lasts, & is likely, your 10 x share likely be diluted to 1x share by government bailout
I would hazard a guess when the government bailed out AIR last time at 50 cents it is more than likely they have got their money back & then some.
That it has been a reasonable investment for the government long term dividend wise

[Cyclical]

I would hazard a guess that you have done well in the short term,well done.Great trade!
In the longer term a hold would be riskier?
If down turn lasts, & is likely, your 10 x share likely be diluted to 1x share by government bailout
I would hazard a guess when the government bailed out AIR last time at 50 cents it is more than likely they have got their money back & then some.
That it has been a reasonable investment for the government long term dividend wise

Haha, brilliant, great summary.

Let us not forget that propertynewb also greatly benefited from a 100% uptick in post count through his/her vested interest in the thread just there.

[Cyclical]

Ref my post several weeks ago where I advocated the government adopt what I call the NAC policy when in the next aviation crisis it only supports the revival of domestic passenger aviation. Kiwi based international carriers will have to face the turbulence of international aviation without any government support.,

The prospect of having no government supported international carrier arising from the ashes of the next crisis is something many have difficulty accepting.

However New Zealand gets along fine without any ownership of international ocean freight.

Yep, sounds plausible.



PS. Government support of domestic aviation post crisis is a rock solid certainty. Can you imagine members of parliament accepting they would have to travel to Wellington by bus.

Look, I was really only being devil's advocate and putting the idea out there to gauge opinion. I wouldn't be in favour of foreign ownership of at least the domestic air travel business, but there are plenty of examples out there where key parts of our country's infrastructure have huge foreign investment. I'm sure if the government wanted to farm it out to offshore business, it could come with appropriate caveats that the operator must service xyz destinations at x capacity and cost etc. Let's face it, they reckon Oz is only big enough for one and a half airlines. Maybe Oz and NZ combined can service two regulated airlines without being such a burden on their country's respective tax payers everytime there is a slump. After all, it should be user pays right, so why should the taxpayers that never fly have to stump up? Or do we accept that the tax take (and gov divvy) from AIR during the good times more than offsets the bad times, and so get over it?

[Blue Skies]

Yep, sounds plausible.




Look, I was really only being devil's advocate and putting the idea out there to gauge opinion. I wouldn't be in favour of foreign ownership of at least the domestic air travel business, but there are plenty of examples out there where key parts of our country's infrastructure have huge foreign investment. I'm sure if the government wanted to farm it out to offshore business, it could come with appropriate caveats that the operator must service xyz destinations at x capacity and cost etc. Let's face it, they reckon Oz is only big enough for one and a half airlines. Maybe Oz and NZ combined can service two regulated airlines without being such a burden on their country's respective tax payers everytime there is a slump. After all, it should be user pays right, so why should the taxpayers that never fly have to stump up? Or do we accept that the tax take (and gov divvy) from AIR during the good times more than offsets the bad times, and so get over it?


The national carrier AIR is much more than just itself, much more than just a means of carrying passengers and freight from A to B.
The fate of the whole tourism industry is inextricably linked with the airline. NZ's tourism sector works closely with & depends on a healthy AIR to open up & promote new international markets.

Where there's any competition for markets, or rationalisation of routes due to economics or rationing of equipment, foreign carriers are inevitably going to put their own rather than NZ's interests first.
Because of this, the govt would never allow the complete demise of AIR. It wouldn't be in the whole countries best interests.

[peat]

One of the free articles from BusinessDesk relevant to this thread

Seems like Airpoints are safe for now (or at least thats what they want you to believe)

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/air-nzs-frequent-flyer-points-safe-for-now

[Beagle]

Thanks peat. This speaks to the risk. “We have not considered, or made any determination, as to whether covid-19 and its associated impacts could be a force majeure event or a circumstance outside our control, as set out in the Airpoints terms and conditions,” the spokesperson said.

With the way they're "managing" the rest of the business one would be prudent to consider whether there's the chance of an airpoints reset along with a full capital raise shortly.

[Cyclical]

With the way they're "managing" the rest of the business one would be prudent to consider whether there's the chance of an airpoints reset along with a full capital raise shortly.

They'd do well to follow ZEL's lead and do the capital raise while their share price is well north of what it's realistically worth...

[Beagle]

They'd do well to follow ZEL's lead and do the capital raise while their share price is well north of what it's realistically worth...

Funny you say that...I was just getting my second coffee for the morning and pondering how long it is before the market tires of writing cheques for companies with deep systemic issues ?

Logic suggests a quick capital raise is profoundly logical but I suspect the Govt are quite relaxed about seeing minority shareholders take some pain first.

[Cyclical]

...but I suspect the Govt are quite relaxed about seeing minority shareholders take some pain first.

Yes, good point. And let's face it, with that 9% loan, it looks like they've engineered things to make sure they can pick up the pieces cheap.

[dobby41]

Thanks peat. This speaks to the risk. “We have not considered, or made any determination, as to whether covid-19 and its associated impacts could be a force majeure event or a circumstance outside our control, as set out in the Airpoints terms and conditions,” the spokesperson said.

With the way they're "managing" the rest of the business one would be prudent to consider whether there's the chance of an airpoints reset along with a full capital raise shortly.

I suppose they could suspend the rewards for a while but I'm not sure that they could cancel them all

Limitaion of liability:
Subject to applicable consumer protection laws and to the fullest extent permitted by law, you agree that Air NZ will have no liability (in negligence, tort, breach of contract, or otherwise) for any loss or damage (including direct or indirect loss, or special or consequential loss or damage) arising out of or in connection with:
- our failure or delay to provide Rewards due to force majeure or other events beyond our control;

[Beagle]

I suppose they could suspend the rewards for a while but I'm not sure that they could cancel them all

Last week contemporaneously with announcing their N.Z. schedule they cancelled vast amounts of prepaid tickets for travel around the country.
I am sure Couta1 will not mind me sharing this. He and his wife had tickets to Chch for a trip in late May 2020 which they cancelled and will eventually give him credit for (when they get around to it).
Here's where its gets interesting though. AIR are actually flying the sectors for the flights Couta had booked, but the price has tripled and he hasn't got his credit yet.

How is that ethical or not a breech of the Fair Trading Act ? How can they cancel bookings (just because it suits them to do so) when the flight for which the customer has already paid is actually occurring ? This is not only morally bankrupt, its unethical and will surely be in breech of the Fair Trading Act as it amounts to a gross abuse of power. Couta is faced with paying three times the price, ( to avail himself of his non refundable hotel booking) or not going.

If this is the moral compass this company is now operating with I am ashamed to have ever been a shareholder. This sort of behaviour makes me wonder if they could very easily do a reset of people's airpoints under the auspices of force majeure or calling Covid 19 an event beyond our control which has profoundly affected us ?

[RTM]

Thanks peat. This speaks to the risk. “We have not considered, or made any determination, as to whether covid-19 and its associated impacts could be a force majeure event or a circumstance outside our control, as set out in the Airpoints terms and conditions,” the spokesperson said.



Is this the same as what is playing out with MET ? If yes..would the interpretation that AIR arrive at carry weight for MET ?

[zspoon]

If this is the moral compass this company is now operating with I am ashamed to have ever been a shareholder. This sort of behaviour makes me wonder if they could very easily do a reset of people's airpoints under the auspices of force majeure or calling Covid 19 an event beyond our control which has profoundly affected us ?

The general risk associated with something happening to AirPoints balances has got me wondering whether it would be an opportune time to spend them all at Mitre 10 - if I 'need' to spend the cash their anyway, it seems like a safer option to fund DIY purchases with AP and simply then use the money that I would otherwise have spent at Mitre 10 to fund any future flights - nothing lost in that regard, but value protected.