AIR - Air NZ.

[Sideshow Bob]

Absolutely. I said a few pages back that if it's only ~$100 million, then why wouldn't they just pay it back? The impact to their reputation is a lot more costly than that. Clearly there is a lot more to it than a measly 100mil.

At last FY result, they had $1.3b in forward fares booked. Same as FY18. So if said was consistent at $1.3b, then $100m is only 7.7% to be refunded.

I call BS on that and believe it would be much higher. Maybe $100m of 'non-refundable' that wanted refunded.

[patrick]

Will Credit holders be able to obtain tickets on equal basis with cash or Air$ buyers?
.

[traineeinvestor]

Yeah, why is that government loan so expensive? If it's deliberately calibrated to send AIR to the wall, then why doesn't the gov just put us out of our misery and hasten the demise by forcing them to issue refunds?

Can't think of any other reason. Compare with the bailout given to Cathay Pacific yesterday - the loan is at 3% for the first 3 years and only increases after that.

What's the easiest way to short AIR at the moment?

[bull....]

the sharesis crowd switched to sellers now? 100s on the sell side

[Waltzing]

its the Snow Cat... dont cross the Snow Cat... long way down the mountain to .92....look forward to the climb back up...however facebook and microsoft on hatch would have been a far better trade?

[Cadalac123]

is this going down to 1.39$ or a shakeout boys? fundamentals look horrendous but man what a stock to trade

[bull....]

is this going down to 1.39$ or a shakeout boys? fundamentals look horrendous but man what a stock to trade

traders stock at the moment

[Waltzing]

I also just cant fathom the loan at 7 and 9%. The government is a shareholder and has received a good dividend. With the fuel hedging in place being a loss and your national carrier being a tax payer and income generator surely you would want this ICON of the economy back on its feet as soon as possible. Does the government have any idea what a business really is or do they want to wind this company down and let the other airline replace it?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I also just cant fathom the loan at 7 and 9%. The government is a shareholder and has received a good dividend. With the fuel hedging in place being a loss and your national carrier being a tax payer and income generator surely you would want this ICON of the economy back on its feet as soon as possible. Does the government have any idea what a business really is or do they want to wind this company down and let the other airline replace it?

Deals need to be conducted at an arms length basis.

[Sideshow Bob]

I also just cant fathom the loan at 7 and 9%. The government is a shareholder and has received a good dividend. With the fuel hedging in place being a loss and your national carrier being a tax payer and income generator surely you would want this ICON of the economy back on its feet as soon as possible. Does the government have any idea what a business really is or do they want to wind this company down and let the other airline replace it?

Can't have the majority owner subsidizing or taking risks when the minority holders don't have to and taking benefit.

[Rossimarnz]

I can't get my head around what has happened to this share price. 4 years ago, when they had just exited Virgin Australia I could have purchase shares for less than yesterdays closing price. The headwinds faced by AIR back then were a gnat's whisker compared to what they face today. Extraordinary!!!!

[Beagle]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/06/air-new-zealand-apologises-for-poor-communication-during-covid-19-fallout.html

Cam earned his big bucks on TV3 breakfast this morning. 15 777's going into deep storage at the Alice Springs plane graveyard. According to last year's annual report they had 7 777-300 ER and 8 777-200 ER aircraft so that's all 777's going into what he referred too as deep storage.

Its good that AIR are finally being honest with their customers that refunding all credits will send them broke and also good they are looking at transferring credits into airpoints and also good that they are expanding their call centre. Finally the message seems to have got through that they need to be honest and transparent and think about their customers.

It was apparent from the interview that senior exec's have really been struggling to cope with this unprecedented circumstances they find themselves in.

[Waltzing]

DISC: ive passed a few law and accounting exams, i know what arms length means. But this interest rate still seems in these times to be to high. I traded the GFC and we have extensive transaction software for this market but i would not trade this stock. There are plenty of stocks that have stochastic intervals that can be calculated. Its not what i call a trading stock but a very very risky gambling stock. SKC is a better trading stock then this.

[bull....]

hows that lol 1.71 to 1.88

[Cadalac123]

hows that lol 1.71 to 1.88

Correlates to ASX open. Pretty common phenomenon with dual listed companies

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338518
Analysts are warning of significant dilution when the Govt converts its $900m loan to equity as low as possibly at 5 cents a share :eek2:

[blackcap]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338518
Analysts are warning of significant dilution when the Govt converts its $900m loan to equity as low as possibly at 5 cents a share :eek2:

Subscriber content. Please warn if posting links that us plebs can't read :)

5 cents a share would be great for our shorts though. Almost a down trou.

[RTM]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338518
Analysts are warning of significant dilution when the Govt converts its $900m loan to equity as low as possibly at 5 cents a share :eek2:

Thanks for taking the time to post the link Beagle. For me no need to post the "Subscriber Content" rider. I can easily see its the Herald or simply try to access it to figure it out.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338518
Analysts are warning of significant dilution when the Govt converts its $900m loan to equity as low as possibly at 5 cents a share :eek2:

Nothing new in that article ....all been said on here over the last couple of months.

[Beagle]

Nothing new in that article ....all been said on here over the last couple of months.

Pretty sure no one on here has suggested the Govt's loan might be converted to shares at just 5 cents before. From memory my estimated range has been 25 - 50 cents.
Jarden's fair value 12 months hence is 84 cents, Forsyth Barr $1.00 - average 92 cents less say 10 % risk adjusted expected return with no dividends so professional analysts are suggesting fair value is currently 83 cents. Red hot favourite that they would know better than the $1,400 sharsies crowd.

[Blue Skies]

The exuberance for this stock over on Sharsies is unbelievable.
Many seem to think it's a win win situation, either the SP will go up or the Govt will bail the airline & therefore the small investors out, with no understanding of the business or the Govt convertible loan or the dire predicament AIR is in.

A bit tragic to see posts like, 'I am so stoked, I invested money for the kids yesterday with air NZ & overnight they made $38, such fun'.
A loan voice posting a mild warning of the risk was met with a criticism of 'way to rain on a parade, yeesh.'

The awful thing is, on their first foray into shares, some of these new investors are going to get badly burnt & apart from losing money they possibly can't afford, be put off investing in anything other than property.

[Jaa]

Thanks for taking the time to post the link Beagle. For me no need to post the "Subscriber Content" rider. I can easily see its the Herald or simply try to access it to figure it out.

As a local investor you really should support local journalism and subscribe. Journalists keep companies, institutions and officials honest in ways that mere retail investors can't. Nothing like the fear of appearing in the paper to make people do the right thing. As an investor, you have the most to lose!

[Cadalac123]

The exuberance for this stock over on Sharsies is unbelievable.
Many seem to think it's a win win situation, either the SP will go up or the Govt will bail the airline & therefore the small investors out, with no understanding of the business or the Govt convertible loan or the dire predicament AIR is in.

A bit tragic to see posts like, 'I am so stoked, I invested money for the kids yesterday with air NZ & overnight they made $38, such fun'.
A loan voice posting a mild warning of the risk was met with a criticism of 'way to rain on a parade, yeesh.'

The awful thing is, on their first foray into shares, some of these new investors are going to get badly burnt & apart from losing money they possibly can't afford, be put off investing in anything other than property.

Ofcourse, they might actually luck out and do very well with a divi payer in a couple of years, and they'll look back and think any criticism was outright wrong against AIR.

The issue with trying to advise people new to investing is they simply won't listen since literally anyone can invest and the market is not well understood among the general public. They'll see stocks like AIR go up and say "i told you it would go up"! it's the exuberance of "easy money" that blinds a lot of people. A mate of mine was in a similar boat and I simply advised him about the risk and didn't say to buy or not buy but it looked like he got angry / irritated at me for even thinking against AIR going back up despite him never investing in stocks before.

Strange phenomenon. I was doing some dumb stuff when I started too to be fair, but I don't remember being this religious to AIR like some of the newer investors are. Maybe heard tales from when AIR last crashed and made a fortune for many.

The other thing that puzzles me is people thinking the return from AIR is anything spectacular. You could have made 3-4x the return on an actual growth stock with amazing future growth potential in this environment. Why on earth would you even take the risk of AIR over a stock like that?

[Beagle]

Its bewildering. Lot of money chasing "the recovery story" without a thought for the possible losses between now and when the airline is eventually profitable again in a few years time or the implications about what that means for a capital raise. I suspect many youngsters identify with the brand, know the Govt won't let them fail and are simply going with sentiment and momentum and what their mates on fakebook are doing. A balance sheet is something you use at a Pilates session right ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Give it a rest for gawds sake.... the SP movement is the only real information of any worth. Everything else is purely speculation and your posts have always been mostly that ...your speculation on what should occur because this is how you see it. No room for other alternative options or realities. Ridiculously overpriced has been your mantra for months and yet here we are ...close to $2. Perhaps you should make a move to question the NZX how this could be happening in direct contradiction to your speculation. Professional, or amateurs, makes no difference. All analysis is trumped by what the market wants. Repetitive posts questioning the validity of SP movement is just so sad (and boring). Sometimes best just to keep quiet and watch.
Pretty sure no one on here has suggested the Govt's loan might be converted to shares at just 5 cents before. From memory my estimated range has been 25 - 50 cents.
Jarden's fair value 12 months hence is 84 cents, Forsyth Barr $1.00 - average 92 cents less say 10 % risk adjusted expected return with no dividends so professional analysts are suggesting fair value is currently 83 cents. Red hot favourite that they would know better than the $1,400 sharsies crowd.

[Waltzing]

and it seems they dont want to listen to any other views from long term investors. I too lost the opportunity of making more money by not staying long on ZERO and ATM. But at the time they too were risky stocks not to mention FPH being subject to the USD which might not have responded as many experts said QE would cheapen the dollar. Still made some very good money on FPH but the company was trading all over the place. The share price of AIR in 5 year might still be here yet again. Most of the old hands in the US have not invested in this market since they did not imagine the FED would ever do a BOJ.

[bull....]

sharesis crowd must made a killing buying in around a dollar

[winner69]

TSA is number of passengers passing through security in the US.

Interesting eh

@carlquintinalla
The trendline of TSA passenger traffic implies a recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels by August. “We realize this sounds ludicrous. And we do not necessarily think what will happen. But the rising mobility of Americans suggest that industry experts may be too negative..”’- @fundstrat

[Quantitative Easing]

Anyone looking to exit this trade? Momentum running out...

[macduffy]

DISC: ive passed a few law and accounting exams, i know what arms length means. But this interest rate still seems in these times to be to high. I traded the GFC and we have extensive transaction software for this market but i would not trade this stock. There are plenty of stocks that have stochastic intervals that can be calculated. Its not what i call a trading stock but a very very risky gambling stock. SKC is a better trading stock then this.

The loans are priced for risk. As you state, AIR is a very very risky stock - even for a govt with access to our deep pockets!

[winner69]

The loans are priced for risk. As you state, AIR is a very very risky stock - even for a govt with access to our deep pockets!

What a lender of last resort would ask for eh mac

Some might say AIR lucky to get it this cheap

[BlackPeter]

TSA is number of passengers passing through security in the US.

Interesting eh

@carlquintinalla
The trendline of TSA passenger traffic implies a recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels by August. “We realize this sounds ludicrous. And we do not necessarily think what will happen. But the rising mobility of Americans suggest that industry experts may be too negative..”’- @fundstrat

Sure - interesting picture.

I think however they forgot to pencil in the second wave into the extrapolation. Just a minor detail, though :):

[Rep]

sharesis crowd must made a killing buying in around a dollar

That's true Bull but wonder how many of that crowd have given consideration to a profit take position - from hard won experience, I ignored my own profit take position on a stock and it was at my peril but I had a partial stop loss on the way down but still hopelessly underwater on that stock but have resigned myself to be happy to hold for a while but have changed my profit take target to get my money back! I had considered a double down when it hit some frankly dumb levels during lockdown but I had other things on my mind.

On the other hand, I reached my profit take position and then some on a partial takeover for RBD shares which realised anything from 2.0x to 9.5x+ return depending on the tranche I accumulated so I sold down most of my stake and it's now north of $12.50 after being as high north of $14 - so more fool me for not having faith.

But that's the lumps with investing in equities.

[macduffy]

Sure - interesting picture.

I think however they forgot to pencil in the second wave into the extrapolation. Just a minor detail, though :):

Indeed. Keep extrapolating that line and you get...………..

;)

[Waltzing]

yes and AIR has taken off again for the day... obviously havnt read the NZ herald article. I suspect most of these people have never had to sell a share with a loss position. Another article on CNBC describing how younger investors took there sisters , cousins, cheques and invested on robin hood. But these investors cant have moved the markets on just that. A lot of leverage must have gone into the reflation as it is just to big a move surely.

[Beagle]

There has been widespread derision and contempt against AIR for the way its been treating its customers lately and rightly so.
There is also widespread bewilderment as to how the current share price is warranted given the profoundly serious implications both past and ongoing that have and will affect the business extremely seriously for the foreseeable future. They have fully deserved the very severe criticism they have received.

Greg Foran did a half reasonable mea cupla in the media last Friday and Cam Wallace did a very good job on TV 3's breakfast program this morning of finally saying on behalf of the company that they are very sorry for what has gone on so I don't need to give them any further kicking or barking but won't be taking it easy on them because someone who frankly in my opinion adds very little to this forum was disrespectful to me above with a thinly veiled personal attack, but because the airline has finally, (after all this time), come out and honestly and frankly admitted why they can't refund the money, (because they'd go broke), and finally said they are genuinely sorry for their appalling bad customer service in recent months. I guess its better late than never.

If investors get a belting on this one it won't be because experienced investors on here didn't warn them including Mark Lister of Craigs in the press today.

[percy]

I think it is a very real concern of experienced investors,not just here, seeing the newbies etc loading up on AIR.
I too think this is going to end in tears.
AIR's market capitalisation today at $1.86 is $2,088,426,682..My valuation is just over $2 billion lower at zero.
I expect there will be a great number of posts in future:"I should have listened to you Beagle."

[Jaa]

While gnashing of teeth continues on this thread, Air NZ announces another positive surprise.

Air New Zealand to resume flights to Japan in late June (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/418716/air-new-zealand-to-resume-flights-to-japan-in-late-june)

[Raz]

There has been widespread derision and contempt against AIR for the way its been treating its customers lately and rightly so.
There is also widespread bewilderment as to how the current share price is warranted given the profoundly serious implications both past and ongoing that have and will affect the business extremely seriously for the foreseeable future. They have fully deserved the very severe criticism they have received.

Greg Foran did a half reasonable mea cupla in the media last Friday and Cam Wallace did a very good job on TV 3's breakfast program this morning of finally saying on behalf of the company that they are very sorry for what has gone on so I don't need to give them any further kicking or barking but won't be taking it easy on them because someone who frankly in my opinion adds very little to this forum was disrespectful to me above with a thinly veiled personal attack, but because the airline has finally, (after all this time), come out and honestly and frankly admitted why they can't refund the money, (because they'd go broke), and finally said they are genuinely sorry for their appalling bad customer service in recent months. I guess its better late than never.

If investors get a belting on this one it won't be because experienced investors on here didn't warn them including Mark Lister of Craigs in the press today.

I think you are too kind, it is one of the worst management performances I have seen for a long time and that is even with the luck of the media not even getting to the heart of everything they have been doing. Show some tangible action, sorry is easily said and just a word.

[Snow Leopard]

....someone who frankly in my opinion....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YhgwK7nAWk

[Scrunch]

Correlates to ASX open. Pretty common phenomenon with dual listed companies

Has anyone else noticed that there are starting to be some really big volumes going through over on the ASX on the AIZ ticker?

Through to around March 2020 most of the volume went through on the NZX. Over the last couple of months the AIZ volume has really picked up. Since Easter there's been 11 days on the ASX where volumes have exceeded 5 million shares and based on the direct broking graphs the 3 highest daily volumes in May were all over on the ASX.

Today's another example of that, a very strong 10,410,013 volume here on the NZX but a whopping 15,686,729 traded over on the ASX!!!
Does that mean we will have more examples (like today) of sharp price shifts just leading up to 12pm as the ASX pre-market exists, then at mid-day as the ASX opens?

[Snow Leopard]

Has anyone else noticed that there are starting to be some really big volumes going through over on the ASX on the AIZ ticker?
....

....and the brokerage is much cheaper whilst trades really do happen the instant you press the Go button. :)

[bull....]

....and the brokerage is much cheaper whilst trades really do happen the instant you press the Go button. :)

hahhaaha so true

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354494

Sure as eggs crack under stress, an AIA billion dollar capital raising on the way with Air NZ.

[bull....]

Air NZ calls in bankers, advisers to mull funding optionshttps://www.afr.com/street-talk/air-nz-calls-in-bankers-advisers-to-mull-funding-options-20200610-p5512q

the surge in stock price is good timing for a stock raise

[sb9]

Air NZ calls in bankers, advisers to mull funding options

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/air-nz-calls-in-bankers-advisers-to-mull-funding-options-20200610-p5512q

the surge in stock price is good timing for a stock raise

Kind of explains a bit re the recent trading pattern..

[kyanar]

Air NZ calls in bankers, advisers to mull funding options

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/air-nz-calls-in-bankers-advisers-to-mull-funding-options-20200610-p5512q

the surge in stock price is good timing for a stock raise

Yeah, except the linked NZX announcement says that's not the case. Lying about market-sensitive information like that to the NZX would go down like a lead balloon.

[Balance]

Yeah, except the linked NZX announcement says that's not the case. Lying about market-sensitive information like that to the NZX would go down like a lead balloon.

Actually, the company has confirmed the AFR Street Talk article in not so many words.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354494

Sure as eggs crack under stress, an AIA billion dollar capital raising on the way with Air NZ.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338931

Paywall article

"According to the AFR's Street Talk column the airline has appointed KPMGs advisory team to consider options on deal size, structures and timing. It also said that investment banks UBS and Forsyth Bar were "sticking close to the company."

"One local fund manager told the Herald this morning that the question was not really if Air NZ would raise capital but when and how much."

Billion dollar capital raising on the way. Guess the government will have to decide whether it participates or get diluted.

[Rep]

Yeah, except the linked NZX announcement says that's not the case. Lying about market-sensitive information like that to the NZX would go down like a lead balloon.

And there's the $900m Elephant in the Room.
The majority shareholder holds 52% of the shares and could opt to block an equity raise.
That would result in AIR having to tap the relatively expensive tranches of the $900m loan (7% and at 9% interest) instead - which is provided by the majority shareholder.
Then it has the option of either making AIR do an equity raise to pay back the loan or converting the loan to equity.
So if AIR doesn't do what the majority shareholder wants then it has extraordinary leverage right now - even more than the 52% to call the tune here.


The facility will be provided in two tranches – a tranche of $600,000,000 with an effective interest rate initially expected to be between 7% and 8% per annum and a second tranche of $300,000,000 with an effective interest rate initially expected to be in the order of 9% per annum. The facility will be available for a period of 24 months. The effective interest rates on both tranches will step-up by 1% if the facility remains after 12 months.

Other terms of the agreement (which is in the form of a binding terms sheet to be converted into long form agreements), include: a prohibition on payment by Air New Zealand of any dividends or other distributions to shareholders (including the Government) while any amount is available to be drawn under the facility, the giving of security for the loan by Air New Zealand and certain of its subsidiaries over their assets (subject to certain exceptions), the Government having the ability to seek repayment through a capital raise by the airline after six months, or converting the loan to equity (subject to compliance with laws and any necessary regulatory and/or shareholder approvals), Air New Zealand giving various undertakings, representations and operational and informational and other undertakings, and typical events of default.

[bull....]

be daft not to raise capital now why the stock price is high

[trader_jackson]

by even considering raising capital via issuing more shares AIR is basically admitting the share price is simply to high and overvalued not to take advantage (while they can) of such a ridiculous high share price - imagine 3 months ago trying to do a cap raise at say $1.40 - it would have been laughed out of the room, but now, with a share price hitting nearly $2 this week, punters might be thinking $1.40 is great.

(on another note, I don't know of any broker that has a 12 month target price above $1)

[Waltzing]

cap raise coming? is that the glass ceiling i hear cracking.... oh yes please...that should halt the stock and send a shock... to the share price.. If it doesnt happen oh well.. is that a Beagle i hear barking loudly....

[Balance]

by even considering raising capital via issuing more shares AIR is basically admitting the share price is simply to high and overvalued not to take advantage (while they can) of such a ridiculous high share price - imagine 3 months ago trying to do a cap raise at say $1.40 - it would have been laughed out of the room, but now, with a share price hitting nearly $2 this week, punters might be thinking $1.40 is great.

(on another note, I don't know of any broker that has a 12 month target price above $1)

We have seen a spat of successful capital raising - AIA, KMD, SKT, IFT, CVT, AFT etc.

Market has plenty of appetite for capital raise so it will be very very foolish of Air NZ not to take advantage of that appetite.

[Rep]

We have seen a spat of successful capital raising - AIA, KMD, SKT, IFT, CVT, AFT etc.

Market has plenty of appetite for capital raise so it will be very very foolish of Air NZ not to take advantage of that appetite.

The market might but let's say the Government doesn't want to pay $1.40 per share to maintain it's majority shareholding. It may not want to get diluted and lose control.
If, as majority shareholder, it thwarted the cap raise and forced a drawdown on the loan, then it can tap AIR to turn those to equity and dilute the minority shareholders down - remember Labour didn't want the partial sell down to the private investors in the first place.

What's good for AIR may not be good for the biggest shareholder.

And ask yourself if the government is having to prop up AIR as a strategic asset in a crisis - would the current Government not want to simply want those pesky minority shareholders to go away?

[bull....]

raising capital probably cheaper than using the govt loan , esp if they do it now

[Rep]

raising capital probably cheaper than using the govt loan , esp if they do it now

If the government lets them do it. What's good for AIR may not be good for the biggest shareholder... why would government want to tip 52% of the money for a cap raise to maintain control based on discount at the high SP?

If it didn't tip that money in then it loses control. If it thwarts cap raise, then it gets interest at 6-9% and then could raise it's overall holding with a conversion at probably a much lower SP.

[bull....]

If the government lets them do it. What's good for AIR may not be good for the biggest shareholder... why would government want to tip 52% of the money for a cap raise to maintain control based on discount at the high SP?

If it didn't tip that money in then it loses control. If it thwarts cap raise, then it gets interest at 6-9% and then could raise it's overall holding with a conversion at probably a much lower SP.

if the govt didnt support the raise they risk the company going bust even with the govt loan, so there s/h worthless then and it would cost billions more to bail it out

[macduffy]

Shouldn't we credit the govt with being smart enough to do what's best for an essential piece of infrastructure facing an existential crisis? Perhaps not.

[Panda-NZ-]

If the government lets them do it. What's good for AIR may not be good for the biggest shareholder... why would government want to tip 52% of the money for a cap raise to maintain control based on discount at the high SP?

It has been taking on debt to pay dividends to the government whose funding costs are much less (so net loss to the govt). I think adding on gearing during the good times should not have been allowed to take place.

[Waltzing]

once the Cap Raise is out of the way then after it gaps down a long way it might then be a trade on its new patterns. i can hear barking in the distance? "raising capital probably cheaper than using the govt loan" oh yes i would have thought so that 7-9% must be clever after all...take this or you can ? The government has been snookered!!! I always trade air lines but this time i held a month or 2 too long.... i would love to see a cap raise and that is why i have not touched the stock nor shorted it.

[Jaa]

Air NZ should even now be able to raise debt at rates cheaper than the government loan. Qantas did after all. Still would make more sense to do it after a capital raise.

A 1:2 renounceable rights issue at $1.30 supported and maybe even underwritten by the government would raise $730m at a fair discount.

[Waltzing]

1:2 ? they better get in quick.... 166 closing.. the sellers have started to rush at the market today... more selling ? i hope so....DOW futures down over 400

[percy]

1:2 ? they better get in quick.... 166 closing.. the sellers have started to rush at the market today... more selling ? i hope so....

Perhaps a 2 for 1 at $1.00..?

[Jaa]

Perhaps a 2 for 1 at $1.00..?

That would raise $2.2b, bit more than they need! :t_down:

[percy]

That would raise $2.2b, bit more than they need! :t_down:

I would think about right,.

[Waltzing]

would that be a bargain? 2 for 1 at 1.0? glad i took my loss and moved back to OCA... must be getting old.. KMD looking good soon to. Again... SKC... ect and many other to trade... have to set up yet another portfolio...lucky we have it automated... i got busy after the GFC with software...thought something might come along... only it turned up sooner and bigger than i imagined...many thanks to the many very experienced investors and there knowledge

[Beagle]

I would think about right,.

I agree this makes sense but the Govt might want to put the heat on minority shareholders and do a 4:1 at 50 cents and underwrite it themselves.
$2.2 Billion capital raise in tandem with the $900m loan would stand them a reasonable chance of getting through the next 2 years in my opinion.

Some people have obviously missed this article wherein Foran admitted they are losing $5m a day, (that's $1.8 billion a year). 800 day plan at $5m a day is $4 Billion :eek2: Clearly as they very slowly start to rebuild parts of their business the daily loss will drop down very slowly however experts on CNBC last night were questioning when or even IF airlines will be profitable again ? Suggestions that large swathes of their business market might have permanently disappeared with meetings by digital means such as Zoom becoming widely accepted business practice. If they can't make money from the front end of the aircraft, it doesn't auger well for a return to profitability any time in the foreseeable future.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/air-nz-losing-245m-a-day-bracing-for-more-job-cuts-chief-exec/ar-BB154Jgp
Might be years (if ever) before any of those 15 777's come back from the Alice Springs plane graveyard.

[Jaa]

I would think about right,.

From the AFR article, there's no pressing need to raise capital.


Air NZ had short term liquidity worth more than $640 million as at May 26 and told shareholders it had no financial covenants on new or existing debt facilities and no significant debt maturities until 2022.

It also has an $NZ900 million short-term loan from the New Zealand government ready to go.

[blackcap]

From the AFR article, there's no pressing need to raise capital.

A lot of that short term liquidity will be made up of pre-paid flights that they are going to have to give credits for. However at $5m per day that $640 is now down to $575m and falling. Scrapping the 777's might cost a bit more as will the remainder of the redundancies. Interesting times.

[Jaa]

The $5m a day figure Beagle and you mention Blackcap was the average over level 4 and level 3. The figure will be no where near that now we are in level 1 without social distancing on flights.

Yes some passengers will use credits but there will also be some "catch-up" bookings taking place that will rebuild cash levels to some extent. The cash burn will still be down but the curve will look like a U or a backwards J at least.

[blackcap]

The $5m a day figure Beagle and you mention Blackcap was the average over level 4 and level 3. The figure will be no where near that now we are in level 1 without social distancing on flights.

Yes some passengers will use credits but there will also be some "catch-up" bookings taking place that will rebuild cash levels to some extent. The cash burn will still be down but the curve will look like a U or a backwards J at least.

Yeah I know that, they might even be breaking even with domestic travel (just the operational side) but there are still a lot of skeletons to get through.

[percy]

Qantas/JetStar are going to be kicking them very hard while they are down.Very hard.It is that sort of business."Bastards R Us".
Karma with the "legal theft" [but morally repugnant] of customer's money, means their brand will cost billions, and years to re build.May pay to rebrand as NAC.

[King1212]

Bull traps everywhere....

All newbies are wondering n crying why the shares that just bought....down so much......

Here we go...another wave of market vilotile

[percy]

Bull traps everywhere....

All newbies are wondering n crying why the shares that just bought....down so much......

Here we go...another wave of market vilotile

And so will it will start,"Beagle was right,I should have listened to him."

[King1212]

Oh great Percy....I admire you....you did not let this greedy market suck I in.

[percy]

Oh great Percy....I admire you....you did not let this greedy market suck I in.

I will add something for newbies.
Should you have money/capital in the market you should not have,sell tomorrow morning.
Right off any losses,and move on.Any profits put down to good luck.
"A fool and his money are soon parted."

ps.Capital raises.
To expand the business.Take up your rights.
For the company to just stay in business.Leave to others.

[Baa_Baa]

And so will it will start,"Beagle was right,I should have listened to him."

Carefully gauge the narrative of the shorts who wish for lower prices against the longs who wish for higher prices. Understandable that everyone talks their own book but it is only the disengaged who offer unbiased commentary, imo.

I’m disengaged, no position short or long. I think AIR is a very poor investment at present but a very attractive trading instrument for those who have the skills and the fortitude to long it up and short it down. Not my cup of tea anymore, recipe for a sleep disorder.

[Waltzing]

Simply Brilliant Mr B!!!

"I agree this makes sense but the Govt might want to put the heat on minority shareholders and do a 4:1 at 50 cents and underwrite it themselves."

but who in the cabinet would even think of this? Treasury? certainly not Typhoon Twyford. Lovely Jacinda? The minister of sport? oops i ment finance....

[Waltzing]

The perennial Mr Percy... sounds almost Jane Austenish... "Any profits put down to good luck." ive had some good luck lately but i should have sold more often and held more often...

[percy]

The perennial Mr Percy... sounds almost Jane Austenish... "Any profits put down to good luck." ive had some good luck lately but i should have sold more often and held more often...

Stay lucky.

[Waltzing]

"Might be years (if ever) before any of those 15 777's come back from the Alice Springs plane graveyard." i hate this air craft and i never want to fly on one again even if they are safe ...where are they going to route them..id say they will have to sell them? to ?

[percy]

"Might be years (if ever) before any of those 15 777's come back from the Alice Springs plane graveyard." i hate this air craft and i never want to fly on one again even if they are safe ...where are they going to route them..id say they will have to sell them? to ?

And who do you think would buy them.?
Thousands of aircraft parked up,which will never see service again around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpIs8Y9vgSs

[King1212]

I will buy it.....$10k each

[percy]

I will buy it.....$10k each

For fun go to ASX forum and read AQZ's [today] presentation.Raising au $121.9 mil of which au $91 mil is for fleet expansion.They are going gangbusters with FIFO [fly in fly out] services to the Australian mining sector.

[iceman]

And who do you think would buy them.?
Thousands of aircraft parked up,which will never see service again around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpIs8Y9vgSs

There is only one way to sell them and that´s to scrapyards. Huge writeoffs for AIR coming on those

[King1212]

I will renovate it and do Airbnb on it....

But if the guests banging at the night...the plane might shake a bit? Anyone has ideas?

[Beagle]

AIR N.Z.'s reputation nose dives. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339228

777-200's are certainly a goner (circa $400m write off this year as already announced by AIR) and I doubt they'll bring back the 777-300's as they're the ones that have the old legacy pilot contracts with pilots earning ~ $500K each. These are about 8 years old and will be considerably more valuable than the 14 year old 777-200's.

AIR do not give a breakdown of values by aircraft type but I note in their 2019 financial statements, note 9 page 14 under the depreciation that airframes are written off over 18 years and engines over 6-15 years.
If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.

[Sideshow Bob]

AIR N.Z.'s reputation nose dives. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339228

Along with The Warehouse...….whoops, wrong thread...…:sleep:

Sorry Beagle, just....couldn't......resist.....

[IAK]

I will renovate it and do Airbnb on it....

But if the guests banging at the night...the plane might shake a bit? Anyone has ideas?
Upgrade the shocks, that should fix it 😀

[Beagle]

Along with The Warehouse...….whoops, wrong thread...…:sleep:

Sorry Beagle, just....couldn't......resist.....

LOL I knew someone would notice that. I agree that their delivery was far too slow over the lockdown as they were swamped with demand.

[Jaa]

AIR N.Z.'s reputation nose dives. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339228

777-200's are certainly a goner (circa $400m write off this year as already announced by AIR) and I doubt they'll bring back the 777-300's as they're the ones that have the old legacy pilot contracts with pilots earning ~ $500K each. These are about 8 years old and will be considerably more valuable than the 14 year old 777-200's.

AIR do not give a breakdown of values by aircraft type but I note in their 2019 financial statements, note 9 page 14 under the depreciation that airframes are written off over 18 years and engines over 6-15 years.
If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.

Yet more nonsense from you Beagle.

Air NZ only own 8 of their 777 aircraft!! 4 777-300 and 4 777-200, the rest are leased (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121655635/coronavirus-the-air-nz-777200er-planes-which-may-never-fly-again) which has been discussed here multiple times.

[Beagle]

Yet more nonsense from you Beagle.

Air NZ only own 8 of their 777 aircraft!! 4 777-300 and 4 777-200, the rest are leased (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121655635/coronavirus-the-air-nz-777200er-planes-which-may-never-fly-again) which has been discussed here multiple times.

Not nonsense at all. AIR have already stated that they are looking at circa $350-400m write down on their 777-200's, subject to audit confirmation so it stands to reason they are looking at close to double that on their considerably more modern 777-300's.

$5m per day they were losing included $70m wage subsidy and quite a number of international repatriation flights during lockdown 4.
You suggesting they will be breaking even on flying just over half their domestic capacity is complete nonsense. JetStar are starting up again on 1 July and Qantas are in a vastly stronger financial position than a limping NAC.

They will be doing very well if they can get their loss down to $3m a day by the end of the year. Notice how WHO are saying internationally Covid 19 is getting worse.
Highest numbers ever recorded in the last few days. Anyone thinking that AIR are going to start flying to most of their former international network by mid next year is taking an extremely optimistic view of things.

Today's 10% drop just the very start of the bubble popping. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/global-stocks-reel-on-gloomy-fed-outlook-and-fears-of-a-second-coronavirus-wave.html

What do people not do in a one in 100 year deep recession with a genuine threat to their lives - yeap, you guessed it, international travel. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/oecd-economic-outlook-global-economy-to-contract-by-up-to-7point6percent-in-2020.html

AIR should do a massive capital raise and feed the ducks while they quacking and some are silly enough to think their 800 day plan might actually work.

[Jaa]

The part where you said Air NZ owned 8 777-200s and 7 777-300s and then proceeded to extrapolate from there, the potential write-down was nonsense.

The rest is just speculation.

[Beagle]

The $5m a day figure Beagle and you mention Blackcap was the average over level 4 and level 3. The figure will be no where near that now we are in level 1 without social distancing on flights.

Yes some passengers will use credits but there will also be some "catch-up" bookings taking place that will rebuild cash levels to some extent. The cash burn will still be down but the curve will look like a U or a backwards J at least.

Bring back just on half their domestic capacity while ostensibly having just a tiny fraction of international capacity is not going to slow the cash burn down much. They were doing $6,000m a year turnover and Cam Wallace said earlier this week they are hoping to do $500m, that's not even one tenth of former turnover ! I think you have a very limited understanding of the level of overheads and fixed costs in their business.

[Beagle]

Yet more nonsense from you Beagle.

Air NZ only own 8 of their 777 aircraft!! 4 777-300 and 4 777-200, the rest are leased (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121655635/coronavirus-the-air-nz-777200er-planes-which-may-never-fly-again) which has been discussed here multiple times.

IN that article you referenced "Four of the 777-300ER are owned and three are leased. Of the 777-200ER four are owned and four are leased".
If AIR are writing off $350-450m on their 4 14 year old 777-200's their 4 owned 777-300's that are just 8 years old will be considerably more valuable.

[Sideshow Bob]

The part where you said Air NZ owned 8 777-200s and 7 777-300s and then proceeded to extrapolate from there, the potential write-down was nonsense.

The rest is just speculation.

The exact number of planes might be wrong - https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354105 Page 5. At least is non-cash. Beagle is actually slightly incorrect in saying $350-$400m - it is $350-$450m.

AIR had fractionally over $1b in cash at 31/12 - so presumably not changed much up until Covid let loose. They also had $447m in trade and other receivables.

They have publicly stated previously (last week?) that they will start dipping into the Govt loan soon - and use all of it. Whether they are exploring other more cost effective options, I think it would be prudent to be doing so.

So if they need more cash, $5m per day would last them over 6 months. Exact cash burn still to be disclosed - but been substantial. While the burn is slowing with cost saving measures - undoubtedly need more cash.

They received
$71,096,817.60 from the wage subsidy. If you doubt this, then check here: https://services.workandincome.govt.nz/eps/search

​
Jaa, I definitely appreciate your views and add real value to the AIR discussion. However should not dismiss as 'speculation' when much of it has been disclosed.

[Snow Leopard]

Just for the fun of it can anyone point me to where it says that the $350-450 (non-cash) write down is specifically just for the 777-200s.

[Scrunch]

Carefully gauge the narrative of the shorts who wish for lower prices against the longs who wish for higher prices. Understandable that everyone talks their own book but it is only the disengaged who offer unbiased commentary, imo.

I’m disengaged, no position short or long. I think AIR is a very poor investment at present but a very attractive trading instrument for those who have the skills and the fortitude to long it up and short it down. Not my cup of tea anymore, recipe for a sleep disorder.

Some very wise comments there from Baa Baa.

Out of interest I did a little of a historical recap as to where AIR's price has been relative to the AR quoted NTA in the past (at 30 June).
2007 206%
2008 75%
2009 61%
2010 76%
2011 84%
2012 58%
2013 95%
2014 130%
2015 154%
2016 119%
2017 199%
2018 178%
2019 157%
2020 ???
Given the current trading environment something below NTA would appear sensible. How big should the discount be, that's the multi-million dollar question. The 31 December 2019 NTA was $1.69 but that has to fall over the Jan-June period due to operational losses and asset write-down's. The current share price of $1.66 is still therefore above NTA. The price could (or possibly even should) be above this level if the trading environment was positive - but it isn't.

[Rep]

In terms of the non cash impairment charge for the 777 aircraft - I note that Air NZ adopted IFRS 16 for this fiscal year and the interim report indicated that as a result they added a right of use asset of $876m in relation to what were previously off balance sheet leases. It’s not clear from the disclosures as to whether the impairment relates to the aircraft owned by Air NZ, an impairment in the right of use assets or both.

If it related to owned aircraft then that would suggest that management’s forecast cash flows from these aircraft discounted for WACC are less than the book value.

In terms of the right of use asset, the value under IFRS 16 is normally calculated by reference to the contracted payments under the lease less the incremental cost of borrowing. But if the discounted forecast cash flows from these leases aircraft are below this value does this suggest an impairment would be required because the value of the discounted cash flows from operating the aircraft are less than the discounted lease outgoings?

[Waltzing]

dow futures down should pound the share price friday? Fed chair scared the pants off the market.... dont think hell do that again..

[Raz]

Yeah says it all really

"As an Air New Zealand shareholder, I am embarrassed, appalled and angry at the way its customers are being treated and will not fly Air New Zealand again if I can help it," Gillette said."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121799202/investor-outraged-at-air-new-zealands-handling-of-airfare-refund-disaster

Shame no mention of the cancel bookings yet not cancel flights scenarios....thats a swipe if I have ever seen one...

[samjaynz]

Yeah says it all really

"As an Air New Zealand shareholder, I am embarrassed, appalled and angry at the way its customers are being treated and will not fly Air New Zealand again if I can help it," Gillette said."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121799202/investor-outraged-at-air-new-zealands-handling-of-airfare-refund-disaster

Shame no mention of the cancel bookings yet not cancel flights scenarios....thats a swipe if I have ever seen one...

Same boat here. I'm appalled at the way they've treated two family members of mine, who had saved very hard to book a once-in-a-lifetime (for them) trip over to Europe for a holiday and to see a close relative. They had booked tickets that were refundable/cancelable, were promised refunds before the lockdown even started, and have received no communication or refund since ... despite frequent follow ups. These relatives of mine have both lost their employment due to Covid, so could really do with the cash - but nobody at Air NZ gives a rat's rear end.

Looking back over my business accounts for last year, I spent over $30k with Air NZ on work travel. Half that again on personal travel. I'm determined to give as little of that as possible in future to Air NZ until they sharpen up their act.

[King1212]

Thanks IAK....u are the only one got the joke. The rest of old farts here still wondering about AIR sp and business fundamentals.

Let the newbies ride AIR! Only young and brave one suit buying AIR..aka newbies.

Our nation need u guys! Donate your ticket to support AIR!

[Beagle]

Same boat here. I'm appalled at the way they've treated two family members of mine, who had saved very hard to book a once-in-a-lifetime (for them) trip over to Europe for a holiday and to see a close relative. They had booked tickets that were refundable/cancelable, were promised refunds before the lockdown even started, and have received no communication or refund since ... despite frequent follow ups. These relatives of mine have both lost their employment due to Covid, so could really do with the cash - but nobody at Air NZ gives a rat's rear end.

Looking back over my business accounts for last year, I spent over $30k with Air NZ on work travel. Half that again on personal travel. I'm determined to give as little of that as possible in future to Air NZ until they sharpen up their act.

You're the tip of the Iceberg. Business travel going forward will be massively impacted by:-
1. Health and safety concerns - Employers have a very strong legal obligation to keep their employees safe
2. Digital communication - It is now widely accepted business practice to conduct meetings via digital means
3. Cost Cutting - Every business is looking for ways to cut costs and the front end of the aircraft is very expensive.
4. Resentment - What you've clearly articulated above.

Foran's 800 day plan on the face of it looks credible but its all predicated upon the assumption that most countries will be on top of Covid 19 by 2022. What if that doesn't turn out to be the case ?

I don't think there's any question airline stocks globally are in a bubble. The ~ 15% correction in many US airline stocks overnight is probably just the start of investors coming to their senses. Air travel back to where it was 14 years ago (subscriber only content) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?_id=3&objectid=12338856

[silverblizzard888]

The Titanic sinking....I mean the hot air balloon of refunds and the 800 day credibility notice.

[Sideshow Bob]

You're the tip of the Iceberg. Business travel going forward will be massively impacted by:-
1. Health and safety concerns - Employers have a very strong legal obligation to keep their employees safe
2. Digital communication - It is now widely accepted business practice to conduct meetings via digital means
3. Cost Cutting - Every business is looking for ways to cut costs and the front end of the aircraft is very expensive.
4. Resentment - What you've clearly articulated above.



I had been contemplating our air travel spend, which is all with AIR, domestically and internationally. We are a small company with a reasonable turnover - but I think my travel would be $25-30k pa, and my boss about $35-40k.

Would have had minimum 2 international trips this year cancelled (US & China). Had 5 domestic return trips January-March this year. Have nothing in the foreseeable future. I would say maybe 2-3 domestic trips for the rest of the year.

Board meetings are Zoom. Other stuff we are doing other ways, making do and brings in question if really NEED to travel.

[Beagle]

I had been contemplating our air travel spend, which is all with AIR, domestically and internationally. We are a small company with a reasonable turnover - but I think my travel would be $25-30k pa, and my boss about $35-40k.

Would have had minimum 2 international trips this year cancelled (US & China). Had 5 domestic return trips January-March this year. Have nothing in the foreseeable future. I would say maybe 2-3 domestic trips for the rest of the year.

Board meetings are Zoom. Other stuff we are doing other ways, making do and brings in question if really NEED to travel.

Probably still need to travel to build new business relationships, (provided its safe to do so), but I think business meetings by digital means for existing customers / clients is now viewed as being quite acceptable.

[Sideshow Bob]

Probably still need to travel to build new business relationships, (provided its safe to do so), but I think business meetings by digital means for existing customers / clients is now viewed as being quite acceptable.

Indeed much travel mainly new business/markets/customers. Need to visit some of our Chinese customers - but with (Chinese) borders closed can't do it anyway.

[samjaynz]

Probably still need to travel to build new business relationships, (provided its safe to do so), but I think business meetings by digital means for existing customers / clients is now viewed as being quite acceptable.

This is my approach going forward.

Will travel to "kick off" with a potential client, but once we are underway Zoom etc seems to work fine enough.

I never flew up the pointy end (poor man's business class, AKA exit row is fine enough for me) but imagine a lot of that more "indulgent" business travel will dry up as well.

[dreamcatcher]

AIZ in the ASX index .........S&P NZX20 AIR out

https://www.nzx.com/regulation/NZXO/announcements

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ZSP&timeframe=D&period=M6


(https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ZSP&timeframe=D&period=M6)

[Beagle]

This is my approach going forward.

Will travel to "kick off" with a potential client, but once we are underway Zoom etc seems to work fine enough.

I never flew up the pointy end (poor man's business class, AKA exit row is fine enough for me) but imagine a lot of that more "indulgent" business travel will dry up as well.

I think what we have talked about will be accepted as the new perfectly normal way of doing business.

[Raz]

I think what we have talked about will be accepted as the new perfectly normal way of doing business.

I know many people are enjoying flying less for work, yes you need to maintain relationships yet there a certain dates and meetings in the year which achieve that.

A lot more meetings will be online. I see my travel would reduce by half if we return to normal travel and business environment tomorrow.

[Waltzing]

I plan some travel to the capital this winter on AIR and expect some good offers on accommodation. My travel agency say they expect some good deals going forward back to europe in 2021 2022, we will see. A well travelled friend always did his own arrangement on travel and although a degreed science and politics grad is now stuck in Thailand. Left a few weeks before the levels came in. Still arrogantly talking about virus being a burn out with no need for a vaccine...

NZX enquiry .... those pesky statements again ... the ones that are very difficult to fathom..

"We have set the annual results announcement in late August 2022, which is in around 800 days’ time, as the target date for Air New Zealand to report we are starting to earn healthy profits again even though we may be only 70 per cent of our pre-Covid-19 size."
Foran said it had entered phase two and aimed to remove about $150 million additional from its wages bill as part of a suite of other changes to its cost base.
This could result in more redundancies, the note said.
He said he hoped Air New Zealand in 2022 would be flying about 13 million customers a year versus almost 18 million pre-Covid-19."

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth saying today they lower their target price from $1.00 to 70 cents... I don't know of a broker/analyst that has a target price over $1

Yet AIR is currently trading at $1.62 and nearly hit $2 last week.

I maintain that this is the most overvalued stock on the NZX by miles currently, but not sure if it will ever get remotely close to reality (low $1's) as the story is very, very strong - and really, the story is what counts (not fundamentals)

[winner69]

Forsyth saying today they lower their target price from $1.00 to 70 cents... I don't know of a broker/analyst that has a target price over $1

Yet AIR is currently trading at $1.62 and nearly hit $2 last week.

I maintain that this is the most overvalued stock on the NZX by miles currently, but not sure if it will ever get remotely close to reality (low $1's) as the story is very, very strong - and really, the story is what counts (not fundamentals)

Must be a cap raise coming tomorrow

[Waltzing]

Cap raise on this stock will be very interesting and its impact on other stocks as new investors start to understand its wider implications.

[Sideshow Bob]

Cap raise on this stock will be very interesting and its impact on other stocks as new investors start to understand its wider implications.

Would see it as the opportunity for cheap new shares - just like KMD, SKT etc.

On a tear again today - up 7.7%..... ;)

[Waltzing]

well they are fearless ...

[Blue Skies]

well they are fearless ...


Meanwhile I heard (for April figures) you would have to go back 60 years to the 1960's, to be at the same level of passenger numbers.

[Beagle]

Yeah, Nah...its probably for the best that I don't go there...

[Waltzing]

is that the sound of foot steps down the empty skybridge at Gatewick....fearless...i would sell these rallies and wait for the cap raise... if it comes to that..

[Heimand]

US is green, good day ahead.

[stoploss]

US is green, good day ahead.

Maybe , but it's a long bow to say because an index is up , AIR.NZ will be up , especially if you might be looking to raise cash....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/united-airlines-files-for-issuance-and-sale-of-up-28-million-shares-stock-falls-2020-06-15?mod=home-page

[Waltzing]

yes FED buying bonds , perfect day not, was hoping for a pull back day to buy... so if the FED steps in big that the end of that down swing, they just put the hand on the scales

[Blue Skies]

Just when some complacency was seeping in, the anger & dismay around these 2 new Covid cases might be a harsh reminder of what an almost impossible situation AIR is facing.
Will be interesting to see what happens to the SP tomorrow.

[King1212]

Dow up...so SP will be up today.

Please donate your ticket to AIR. The company needs you guys.....!!

[blackcap]

Just when some complacency was seeping in, the anger & dismay around these 2 new Covid cases might be a harsh reminder of what an almost impossible situation AIR is facing.
Will be interesting to see what happens to the SP tomorrow.

Actually AIR is going to start passenger services to Shanghai soon. So much so that I am thinking my European holiday planned for the end of July till the end of August is going to go ahead after all. (granted I will have to quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival in NZ)

[King1212]

Hope u will pay your own quarantine...not expecting NZ taxpayers to pay for it

[Waltzing]

before trading or investing in this stock would want to see the possible cap raise. The problem even after that raise is will it be the last?

[blackcap]

Hope u will pay your own quarantine...not expecting NZ taxpayers to pay for it

Yeah not sure on that. Have not properly researched what the expectation is but I am pretty sure that you would have to pay for it yourself. Once all those students from China come you would hope the government is not going to pay their quarantine either.

[King1212]

At least these Chinese students bring money and employment our loved Aotearoa....

[blackcap]

At least these Chinese students bring money and employment our loved Aotearoa....

At least here I pay a lot of taxes with my employment and get 4 weeks leave which I then spend on AIR taxpayer before enjoying some sunshine overseas.

I fully expect to pay for my quarantine and would be surprised if that is not the case.

[King1212]

If I were u..I would cancel the trip. Virus everywhere.....not worthy.....but....happy holiday bru

[Beagle]

Actually AIR is going to start passenger services to Shanghai soon. So much so that I am thinking my European holiday planned for the end of July till the end of August is going to go ahead after all. (granted I will have to quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival in NZ)

I think you are much smarter than that and not prone to bouts of gross recklessness. The aim of that once a week flight is for Chinese stuck here to return home and the same for Kiwi's stuck in China...not for people to engage in games of Russian roulette with their lives for travelling just for the sake of a holiday.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121853920/the-border-bungle-is-why-we-cant-fly-international-yet

[sb9]

Mark Lister of Craigs talks with Magic Radio host Peter Williams on markets and more specifically about Air NZ.


https://omny.fm/shows/magic/magic-talk-market-update-15-june-2020/embed?source=twitter&size=square&style=cover

[blackcap]

I think you are much smarter than that and not prone to bouts of gross recklessness. The aim of that once a week flight is for Chinese stuck here to return home and the same for Kiwi's stuck in China...not for people to engage in games of Russian roulette with their lives for travelling just for the sake of a holiday.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121853920/the-border-bungle-is-why-we-cant-fly-international-yet

I understand your concern, but I would quarantine properly on coming back. So no need to worry on that front :)

[Sideshow Bob]

The public reaction has been heavy on this.

Must have to be a blow to a trans-Tasman bubble? At least while Australia still has cases and if they have a border policy where people can come in and bring in Covid, possibly transiting to NZ.

[dobby41]

The public reaction has been heavy on this.

Must have to be a blow to a trans-Tasman bubble? At least while Australia still has cases and if they have a border policy where people can come in and bring in Covid, possibly transiting to NZ.

A TT bubble would quarantine or restrict people from Aus so is high risk while they still have cases in the wild.
At least people should now realise that there is a risk (whereas it seems many seem to have forgotten covid-19 happened here based on what I have seen in my travels).

[winner69]

F20 loss $120m plus all the other abnormal stuff.

Some look through Covid earnings so pretty good result.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/354844/324667.pdf

[blackcap]

F20 loss $120m plus all the other abnormal stuff.

Some look through Covid earnings so pretty good result.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/354844/324667.pdf

A lot better than many were expecting probably. If they can operate on a loss of $120m with all the disruption they will be back to profit in no time.

[mfd]

A lot better than many were expecting probably. If they can operate on a loss of $120m with all the disruption they will be back to profit in no time.

The loss is for the year to the end of June, so three relatively normal quarters and one heavily disrupted quarter.

[winner69]

Does mean they lost $494m in second half of year (before abnormals)

[trader_jackson]

I could be reading this wrong, but earnings before other significant items and taxation as at half year was $198m
Impacts of Covid really only started to come through in mid march (a bit over 3 months out from end of Financial year).
So they went from say 260 ish (estimated) Earnings before other significant items and taxation as at around mid March, to a $120m loss... so in just over 3 and a bit months, a loss of nearly $400m (before significant items and taxation) was made... that is the way i see it anyway.

How anyone could be happy with losing over $100m a month (and this likely to continue for the rest of the year, before maybe recovering to $50m a month average loss for all of next year)

[Beagle]

The loss is for the year to the end of June, so three relatively normal quarters and one heavily disrupted quarter.

This announcement is something that would be required before a capital raise. I read that as a capital raise being imminent.
The thing investors need to understand is that in FY21 they will have four heavily disrupted quarters. Anyone thinking a trans-tasman bubble is coming soon must be living under a rock in the last few days.

So they made $198m before tax for the first half and who knows what they made in January and February 2020, probably something but are now set to lose $120m, so losses are at the very least $100m a month in the last quarter and that's after the $70m Govt wage subsidy and before a whole heap of extraordinary items.

Be careful folks, I believe a MASSIVE CAPITAL RAISE IS IMMINENT.

[Cadalac123]

This announcement is something that would be required before a capital raise. I read that as a capital raise being imminent.
The thing investors need to understand is that in FY21 they will have four heavily disrupted quarters. Anyone thinking a trans-tasman bubble is coming soon must be living under a rock in the last few days.

So they made $198m before tax for the first half and who knows what they made in January and February 2020, probably something but are now set to lose $120m, so losses are at the very least $100m a month in the last quarter and that's after the $70m Govt wage subsidy and before a whole heap of extraordinary items.

Be careful folks, I believe a MASSIVE CAPITAL RAISE IS IMMINENT.

Awesome probably better to enter on the capital raise then the last 3 months

[BlackPeter]

Awesome probably better to enter on the capital raise then the last 3 months

I am sure there still will be significant risks, but it clearly will be better buying than before :):

[winner69]

This announcement is something that would be required before a capital raise. I read that as a capital raise being imminent.
The thing investors need to understand is that in FY21 they will have four heavily disrupted quarters. Anyone thinking a trans-tasman bubble is coming soon must be living under a rock in the last few days.

So they made $198m before tax for the first half and who knows what they made in January and February 2020, probably something but are now set to lose $120m, so losses are at the very least $100m a month in the last quarter and that's after the $70m Govt wage subsidy and before a whole heap of extraordinary items.

Be careful folks, I believe a MASSIVE CAPITAL RAISE IS IMMINENT.

Wasnt first half $374m npbt profit and no mention of Abnormals

So second half $494m loss

[Beagle]

Wasnt first half $374m npbt profit and no mention of Abnormals

So second half $494m loss

I just went off page 9 mate. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317643.pdf

That trend shown there is something people thinking about investing should keep in mind.

[winner69]

I just went off page 9 mate. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/349043/317643.pdf

That trend shown there is something people thinking about investing should keep in mind.

OK

Sad looking chart that one .......and unlikely to look much better in future

Luxon was pretty useless eh ...boom times and a chart like that

[Beagle]

Very sad and about to look much sadder.
He wasted a lot of money on "greenwashing".

[bull....]

Forsyth Barr reduced its target price per share to 70 cents, down from $1

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121866260/air-nz-share-price-substantially-higher-than-what-it-should-be-analysts-warn

[Joshuatree]

Wait till you hear about what AIR isn't doing. For one ,staff from an international flight from LA can fly home on a domestic flight. How do you run an airline viably with staff that dont do the 2 week stand down after every flight from a highly infected country.?

[Beagle]

Forsyth Barr reduced its target price per share to 70 cents, down from $1

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121866260/air-nz-share-price-substantially-higher-than-what-it-should-be-analysts-warn

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

[winner69]

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

To my mathematical brain, the numbers alone make thinking about aliens perfectly rationale. The real challenge is to work out what aliens might actually be like - Hawking

[dobby41]

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

Now you believe the number brokers give?
When did that change - or is it only numbers you agree with?
PS - I agree with the brokers on this one but you usually don't.

[Jaa]

As usual no one has mentioned the positive news of ~$70m more potential cash in the kitty from the increase in the NZD. That might get them through 2 more months. $37m more coming from the wage extension too, another month.

As at mid June, Air NZ is flying 50% of its domestic capacity and expects this to increase to 55% next month. Qantas in comparison is flying 40% of its domestic capacity which includes a number of subsidised routes.

Air NZ seems to be doing well out of cargo and must have decided might as well sell some tickets too. Flights to Japan and Shanghai resuming and code-share flights to Singapore with Singapore Airlines. Likewise with the 787s flying between Auckland and Christchurch full of cargo.

There will be a capital raising eventually but it won't be the going out of business bargain many are expecting.

[Jaa]

AIR N.Z.'s reputation nose dives. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339228

777-200's are certainly a goner (circa $400m write off this year as already announced by AIR) and I doubt they'll bring back the 777-300's as they're the ones that have the old legacy pilot contracts with pilots earning ~ $500K each. These are about 8 years old and will be considerably more valuable than the 14 year old 777-200's.

AIR do not give a breakdown of values by aircraft type but I note in their 2019 financial statements, note 9 page 14 under the depreciation that airframes are written off over 18 years and engines over 6-15 years.
If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.

The above wild speculation of an impairment charge in the order of $1b-$1.2b was way, way off, as I called out at the time. :t_down:

Air NZ's guidance today confirmed an aircraft impairment charge of $350 - $450 million for the year to June 30.

[BlackPeter]

Now you believe the number brokers give?
When did that change - or is it only numbers you agree with?
PS - I agree with the brokers on this one but you usually don't.

Brokers estimates are as reliable as horoscopes. No correlation with reality, however given the randomness (of either reality or the broker numbers, probably both) does it happen from time to time that they are correct. Similar with a broken clock.

More interesting than the value of the brokers forecast is typically any change in this value. Any forecast changes are either triggered by external events or alternatively by changes in the brokers interest. Always worthwhile to analyse these changes ... :):

[winner69]

As usual no one has mentioned the positive news of ~$70m more potential cash in the kitty from the increase in the NZD. That might get them through 2 more months. $37m more coming from the wage extension too, another month.

As at mid June, Air NZ is flying 50% of its domestic capacity and expects this to increase to 55% next month. Qantas in comparison is flying 40% of its domestic capacity which includes a number of subsidised routes.

Air NZ seems to be doing well out of cargo and must have decided might as well sell some tickets too. Flights to Japan and Shanghai resuming and code-share flights to Singapore with Singapore Airlines. Likewise with the 787s flying between Auckland and Christchurch full of cargo.

There will be a capital raising eventually but it won't be the going out of business bargain many are expecting.

Jaa - That $70m they mentioned is a non-cash item.

[Beagle]

Now you believe the number brokers give?
When did that change - or is it only numbers you agree with?
PS - I agree with the brokers on this one but you usually don't.

I would not buy the shares at 70 cents. To be clear I believe AIR will incur combined multi year (inclusive of extraordinary items) losses of at the very least the full amount of existing shareholders equity $2 billion as at 31 December 2019 before they are through this crisis. That leaves just brand value, which with the way they have been treating customers lately is disappearing at an alarming rate of knots. I see very little value in the shares.


The above wild speculation of an impairment charge in the order of $1b-$1.2b was way, way off, as I called out at the time. :t_down:

Air NZ's guidance today confirmed an aircraft impairment charge of $350 - $450 million for the year to June 30.

You appear to need new glasses as quite clearly I indicated my estimate of the bigger part of the hit might be to FY21 financials.

If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.
Bubble in real trouble and a goner until at earliest 2021. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340899
If you like it at the current price Jaa, then really get stuck into it and fill ya boots and good luck.

[Zaphod]

Bubble in real trouble and a goner until at earliest 2021. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340899
.

Which is however completely at odds with other articles published which specifically mention the NZ travel bubble. At this point, who knows what will eventuate.

[Jaa]

Jaa - That $70m they mentioned is a non-cash item.

It is non cash at the moment but I imagine like any hedge can be cashed in or used to defray future FX expenses.

[dobby41]

Which is however completely at odds with other articles published which specifically mention the NZ travel bubble. At this point, who knows what will eventuate.

It's been suggested by the people at Canberra Chamber of Commerce that he wasn't talking about NZ and was talking about all other countries.
Who knows.
I wouldn't want a TT Bubble until Aus gets to 0 community cases for a week or 2.

[Snow Leopard]

It is non cash at the moment but I imagine like any hedge can be cashed in or used to defray future FX expenses.

"The Company is now in a position to provide further information on the impact of unhedged foreign currency debt resulting from the de-designation of revenue hedges due to a decline in expected foreign currency revenues"

Bit of a mouthful that one, not sure I quite follow it.
There seems to hedges and un-hedges all over the place that need pruning
https://media.bunnings.co.nz/Product-800x800/bb79a9f1-9a07-4fca-99e2-3432299a734f.jpg
https://www.bunnings.co.nz/ryobi-one-18v-2-0ah-hedge-trimmer-kit_p0038833

[silverblizzard888]

My valuation for AIR right now in its current state is 55 cents, given the massive decline in business, the currently share price has far more risk than reward for anyone buying or holding at the moment.

[Jaa]

You appear to need new glasses as quite clearly I indicated my estimate of the bigger part of the hit might be to FY21 financials.

Apologies Beagle, think I temporarily forgot about Air NZ's June 30 FY end.

[Jaa]

"The Company is now in a position to provide further information on the impact of unhedged foreign currency debt resulting from the de-designation of revenue hedges due to a decline in expected foreign currency revenues"

Bit of a mouthful that one, not sure I quite follow it.
There seems to hedges and un-hedges all over the place that need pruning
https://media.bunnings.co.nz/Product-800x800/bb79a9f1-9a07-4fca-99e2-3432299a734f.jpg
https://www.bunnings.co.nz/ryobi-one-18v-2-0ah-hedge-trimmer-kit_p0038833

No idea what "de-designation" means. A quick search led me into the world of hedge accounting... :eek2:

Much more fun to prune than to account!

[Waltzing]

Does MR B believe the share price will slowly deflate ? with what well over 100 billion in TD attracting nothing much. When will these prices adjust? The current rally seems to have reached its peak. With the US increasing cases are we going to be a retracement sooner than we expect. The new wave of investors may not be predictable and no one has surveyed the investor public yet.

[BlackPeter]

My valuation for AIR right now in its current state is 55 cents, given the massive decline in business, the currently share price has far more risk than reward for anyone buying or holding at the moment.

LOL - I assume this is the top end of the valuation span, assuming everything goes well? Low end for AIR clearly must be zero ...

[Waltzing]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341061

if NZ thinks this is doing a good job in the new world of hardening systems to this and future health solutions for society?

My military family who are consultants are now furious with both the government and management in new zealand companies. They consider civilians are slack in there performance in general.

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth saying today they lower their target price from $1.00 to 70 cents... I don't know of a broker/analyst that has a target price over $1

Yet AIR is currently trading at $1.62 and nearly hit $2 last week.

I maintain that this is the most overvalued stock on the NZX by miles currently, but not sure if it will ever get remotely close to reality (low $1's) as the story is very, very strong - and really, the story is what counts (not fundamentals)

Forsyth target price 80 cents now... AIR trading at nearly 2x this 12 month target.

Absolutely crazy... but the story is so very strong and that's all that matters sometimes.

[silverblizzard888]

LOL - I assume this is the top end of the valuation span, assuming everything goes well? Low end for AIR clearly must be zero ...

Well they haven't exhausted all their financial options yet, so it wouldn't be zero until they've at least asked the shareholders for a cap raise. If Sky can pull $157 million from shareholders then Air shouldn't have any trouble doing that.

[Sideshow Bob]

Forsyth target price 80 cents now... AIR trading at nearly 2x this 12 month target.



On Sharsies, some are thinking they are just talking the price down, so they can hoover them up themselves.....!! :scared:

[Beagle]

Does MR B believe the share price will slowly deflate ? with what well over 100 billion in TD attracting nothing much. When will these prices adjust? The current rally seems to have reached its peak. With the US increasing cases are we going to be a retracement sooner than we expect. The new wave of investors may not be predictable and no one has surveyed the investor public yet.

Survey out overnight in the US reported on CNBC. Just 28% of people feel safe to fly.
Trans-tasman bobble is a long way away in my opinion. I expect a substantial capital raise, possibly as early as the next few weeks. There is a good chance (to gain the necessary institutional support) it will need to be pitched below the average analysts perception of fair value which according to market screener is currently 95 cents.

[traineeinvestor]

Survey out overnight in the US reported on CNBC. Just 28% of people feel safe to fly.
Trans-tasman bobble is a long way away in my opinion. I expect a substantial capital raise, possibly as early as the next few weeks. There is a good chance (to gain the necessary institutional support) it will need to be pitched below the average analysts perception of fair value which according to market screener is currently 95 cents.

You're not the only one thinking that AIR will do a capital raise. IMHO, they need to do it well before they start drawing on the usurious government "loan."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340978

[BlackPeter]

Well they haven't exhausted all their financial options yet, so it wouldn't be zero until they've at least asked the shareholders for a cap raise. If Sky can pull $157 million from shareholders then Air shouldn't have any trouble doing that.

Well, it clearly is zero if the amount of their outgoings is consistently higher than the amount of their incomings (as it currently is). Sure - they can try to kick the can down the road by increasing the incomings with capital raises, but how sustainable will this be?

At the moment they are bleeding from memory something like $100 m per month. How often and at what share price will they be able to fund this loss with new capital? I suspect at some stage the Sharesies investors might run out of money ...

Just to be clear ... I expect that the company will be kept alive by the taxpayer. Just not optimistic that current share holders will hugely benefit from this - the dilution will be horrible. But yes, I am happy to give you that this still means that the shares will keep some value, I suspect however this value will be much closer to zero than to the number you mentioned.

[Beagle]

You're not the only one thinking that AIR will do a capital raise. IMHO, they need to do it well before they start drawing on the usurious government "loan."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340978

They'll want to get it done before too many more stories like this one come out. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341061

[Clints]

I am travelling to Queenstown with the family in July school holidays. Booked the tickets in level 2 when prices were still reasonable. Have just seen the dreaded "We are currently processing a change to this flight... We'll be in touch as soon as we've found you the best alternative"
Wonder if AirNZ aren't happy to fly us down on cheaper tickets when they could make 3 x the money for those 4 seats.

[winner69]

I am travelling to Queenstown with the family in July school holidays. Booked the tickets in level 2 when prices were still reasonable. Have just seen the dreaded "We are currently processing a change to this flight... We'll be in touch as soon as we've found you the best alternative"
Wonder if AirNZ aren't happy to fly us down on cheaper tickets when they could make 3 x the money for those 4 seats.

You prob right about getting screwed ....good luck ...please keep us informed on what develops

[stoploss]

I am travelling to Queenstown with the family in July school holidays. Booked the tickets in level 2 when prices were still reasonable. Have just seen the dreaded "We are currently processing a change to this flight... We'll be in touch as soon as we've found you the best alternative"
Wonder if AirNZ aren't happy to fly us down on cheaper tickets when they could make 3 x the money for those 4 seats.

Think you'll be right they are putting on the 787 over the holidays increasing capacity by a large margin.

[k14]

I am travelling to Queenstown with the family in July school holidays. Booked the tickets in level 2 when prices were still reasonable. Have just seen the dreaded "We are currently processing a change to this flight... We'll be in touch as soon as we've found you the best alternative"
Wonder if AirNZ aren't happy to fly us down on cheaper tickets when they could make 3 x the money for those 4 seats.
I booked similar flights way back in Feb. We have had 4 or 5 changes now. Had similar concerns to you but everything has worked out so far. Latest change yesterday was a 10 min schedule change and plane change to an A321. Looking forward for first time on one.

[Jaa]

Think you'll be right they are putting on the 787 over the holidays increasing capacity by a large margin.

They are upgauging their entire domestic network during the school holidays and specifically said they will put their larger A321 aircraft on the Queenstown route as well as 787s Akl-Chc. Clints I would expect a minor timing change that's all.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340924

Overall sounds like robust demand to me. If they can get the domestic load factor above 70% they will make money, at least operationally. The monthly op stats will tell us how its going.

[Jaa]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341061

if NZ thinks this is doing a good job in the new world of hardening systems to this and future health solutions for society?

My military family who are consultants are now furious with both the government and management in new zealand companies. They consider civilians are slack in there performance in general.

This story is a bit of a media beatup with people expecting things they didn't pay for. No airline can sustain operations with social distancing in place so the alternative for these passengers is to stay in their covid hotspots or take a very small risk on a flight out. 75% economy capacity on a 777 isn't full anyway. I would guess it was profitable though.

I do think they should be requiring all international passengers to wear medical grade face masks. Other airlines like the Chinese airlines, Singapore and Malaysia Airlines do. Bit rich for passengers to complain when they themselves haven't brought any along! In a lot of countries these people are coming from you can't even go to the shops without one.

Note, there has been no documented spread of covid aboard aircraft which the article should really mention. Much more likely at the airport at the immigration/biosecurity queues.

[dobby41]

Note, there has been no documented spread of covid aboard aircraft

Which is fascinating in itself.
A very tricky virus with some odd habits.

[44wishlists]

This story is a bit of a media beatup with people expecting things they didn't pay for. No airline can sustain operations with social distancing in place so the alternative for these passengers is to stay in their covid hotspots or take a very small risk on a flight out. 75% economy capacity on a 777 isn't full anyway. I would guess it was profitable though.

I do think they should be requiring all international passengers to wear medical grade face masks. Other airlines like the Chinese airlines, Singapore and Malaysia Airlines do. Bit rich for passengers to complain when they themselves haven't brought any along! In a lot of countries these people are coming from you can't even go to the shops without one.

Note, there has been no documented spread of covid aboard aircraft which the article should really mention. Much more likely at the airport at the immigration/biosecurity queues.

Latest article in Bloomberg may answer the last part of your comment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-19/how-safe-is-flying-in-the-age-of-coronavirus-quicktake?srnd=premium-asia&sref=Pgt51WBK

[winner69]

Saw something along the lines of ‘Covid19 is not an AIRborne disease’

So safe to fly

[Marilyn Munroe]

The sly dingos at Queer and Nasty Airlines have decided to cough up refunds after the ACCC pointed the bones at them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/qantas-offers-customers-refunds-for-flight-cancellations/12372888?section=business

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[BWH]

Question: why is it that Jetstar as kept their pilots on albeit on leave without pay, but AirNZ has made many of theirs redundant? Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but this is what I was told....

I have a friend who has been flying for Jetstar for 3-4 years. He was offered either redundancy or leave without pay. He wisely chose the leave and now looks to be gearing up to fly again soon.

[Xerof]

I have a friend who has been flying for Jetstar for 3-4 years. He was offered either redundancy or leave without pay. He wisely chose the leave and now looks to be gearing up to fly again soon.

From what I hear on the pilot grapevine, only AKL based staff will be bought back into rosters. CHC remains out in the cold

[Waltzing]

AIR - the view for capital raise.

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/105566/country-hurtles-deep-recession-sharemarket-listed-companies-are-doing-good-job-giving

[BWH]

From what I hear on the pilot grapevine, only AKL based staff will be bought back into rosters. CHC remains out in the cold

Could be. He is Auckland based.

[Heimand]

More flight announced:
Auckland-San Francisco: Three times weekly between 21-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Los Angeles: Daily between 21-Jul-2020 and 31-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Hong Kong: Increase from twice to three times weekly between 04-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020.

[winner69]

More flight announced:
Auckland-San Francisco: Three times weekly between 21-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Los Angeles: Daily between 21-Jul-2020 and 31-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Hong Kong: Increase from twice to three times weekly between 04-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020.

That’s good taking thousands out of the country

Hope they coming back with very few if any passengers ...full them up with freight

[BlackPeter]

More flight announced:
Auckland-San Francisco: Three times weekly between 21-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Los Angeles: Daily between 21-Jul-2020 and 31-Aug-2020;
Auckland-Hong Kong: Increase from twice to three times weekly between 04-Jul-2020 and 29-Aug-2020.

They might soon run out of crews given the increased quarantine conditions for those :):

[Filthy]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200625/pdf/44jxzl7p6sfqf0.pdf QAN cap raise. AIR soon to follow?

[trader_jackson]

Qantas - the ones that many say are far better off financially than Air NZ - is raising $1.9m (about a third of their market cap).

If Qantas (the "much better off" airline) is raising a third of their market cap, I would expect a cap raising for AIR in the region of several hundred million to be imminent. With the share price falling from nearly $2 to $1.32 in just over 2 weeks, Mr Market is beginning to realize this (that a cap raise is required and huge dilution on the way). AIR better act fast while the share price is still extremely high (at $1.32), relative to the fundamentals, otherwise the dilution to existing shareholders will get worse.

[Sideshow Bob]

Certainly the AIR has been let out of their tyres of late, down again today - $1.94 to $1.33 in the last couple of weeks.

Maybe it is the Sharsies crowd getting out.....

[Beagle]

Qantas - the ones that many say are far better off financially than Air NZ - is raising $1.9m (about a third of their market cap).

If Qantas (the "much better off" airline) is raising a third of their market cap, I would expect a cap raising for AIR in the region of several hundred million to be imminent. With the share price falling from nearly $2 to $1.32 in just over 2 weeks, Mr Market is beginning to realize this (that a cap raise is required and huge dilution on the way). AIR better act fast while the share price is still extremely high (at $1.32), relative to the fundamentals, otherwise the dilution to existing shareholders will get worse.

Yes, as usual, QAN are the proactive company and quicker out of the blocks than AIR https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200625/pdf/44jy1dssrbvdt4.pdf

Virgin also coming back with multiple offers to get it going again. https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/virgin-bondholders-outline-bid-details/news-story/6518debc007fd3f66078c21a79feb9ea?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+25 +June+2020

I expect a substantial capital raise for AIR to be announced in the near future and this will be priced to get institutional support at under $1.

[Waltzing]

"is raising $1.9m" is that a B? , yes just cross the new wires

[Beagle]

Yes $A1.86 Billion which puts the Kangaroo in a strong position going forward.

[Waltzing]

and can we start to trade AIR .. AFTER their CAP Raise? im not touching it before thank you....i might even wait until after it starting reporting a Profit..or some good numbers next ? May, June . July when international travel might start? IATA asking for less restrictions by nations on travel. Oops 2023? as outlined below by MR B. Oil hedging problem also?

[Beagle]

Unlikely to turn a profit until 2023 in my opinion.

[winner69]

Unlikely to turn a profit until 2023 in my opinion.

Even Qantas saying a 3 year recovery plan ...and that's after laying off thousands

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300041934/nz-inc-should-prepare-for-a-long-lockdown Doesn't look good at all for AIR or any other tourism operator.

Trans-Tasman bubble looking extremely unlikely any time soon. a whopping 33 new cases in the state of Victoria today up from 17 yesterday. Looks like community transmission to me and as for U.S.A...oh dear... https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/us/coronavirus-pandemic-rages-in-the-us-spurring-quarantines-and-mask-orders/ar-BB15WIuJ?ocid=spartanntp

[patrick]

When will those with big Credits be able to use them... and impact on bottom line?

[Beagle]

Qantas/JetStar are going to be kicking them very hard while they are down.Very hard.It is that sort of business."Bastards R Us".
Karma with the "legal theft" [but morally repugnant] of customer's money, means their brand will cost billions, and years to re build.May pay to rebrand as NAC.


And so will it will start,"Beagle was right,I should have listened to him."

Its coming eh mate. Those buying at over $1.80 wondering what could possibly go wrong could never say they weren't warned ! Massive capital raise by Qantas today, analogous to getting new steel capped boots for when the kicking starts in earnest. Actually their second capital raise and takes the total raised to nearly $3 billion !
Further, QAN are in a great position to recover seeing as about 2/3 rd's of their revenue is from domestic operations, substantially more than AIR's. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12343089 (Paywalled article)

Using big credits Patrick...where ? How many times can you realistically fly to Queenstown and back without getting bored out of your mind ?

[Heimand]

"2023 Women's Football World Cup coming to New Zealand", this should have some affect on the share price today.

[King1212]

Hahha...u are joking. The best joke in the morning.

[winner69]

"2023 Women's Football World Cup coming to New Zealand", this should have some affect on the share price today.

Last Lions Tour helped AIR by $25m

But the World Cup is HUGE ....so will be HUGE for AIR

[dobby41]

Met 2 ex AirNZ pilots in the last week, 1 working as a courier, the other as an onion picker.

Question: why is it that Jetstar as kept their pilots on albeit on leave without pay, but AirNZ has made many of theirs redundant? Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but this is what I was told....

Seems AIR was quicker at seeing reality.
Qantas now laying off 20% of their workforce as they prepare to be a much smaller airline.
They are now 'increasing' their domestic capacity to 15% (what you get with a so called open economy when internal borders are closed).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12342898

[Blue Skies]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

[stoploss]

Lufthansa news, interesting the return flight guarantees etc ,...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/business/lufthansa-bailout-heinz-hermann-thiele/index.html

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300042743/airlines-and-coronavirus-lufthansas-return-flight-guarantee-gives-travellers-confidence-to-fly-postpandemic

[Raz]

Lufthansa news, interesting the return flight guarantees etc ,...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/business/lufthansa-bailout-heinz-hermann-thiele/index.html

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300042743/airlines-and-coronavirus-lufthansas-return-flight-guarantee-gives-travellers-confidence-to-fly-postpandemic

Emirates sent out a similar support plan to regular business class passengers a week ago. The cost to compete and depth of network is going to go up. AIR needs to sort its capital structure ASAP.

[Raz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300041934/nz-inc-should-prepare-for-a-long-lockdown Doesn't look good at all for AIR or any other tourism operator.

Trans-Tasman bubble looking extremely unlikely any time soon. a whopping 33 new cases in the state of Victoria today up from 17 yesterday. Looks like community transmission to me and as for U.S.A...oh dear... https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/us/coronavirus-pandemic-rages-in-the-us-spurring-quarantines-and-mask-orders/ar-BB15WIuJ?ocid=spartanntp

Talk around Qantas is not full international schedule until late 2021.

[Beagle]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

That's bang on the money. Investors got really lucky its been 19 years since the last collapse and bailout after 9/11. Going forward, from an investment point of view I think its safer to assume a collapse and bailout at least once a decade and when you start factoring that into your long term investment returns really this only becomes a traders stock and long term investment is a mug's game.

[Waltzing]

The Brilliant MR B has made it offical. Up to the last 2 years we moved on and off the market at such pace that we created special software to cater for the amount of transactional movements. Then with interest rates staying super low in the 10 year we decided to stay another 2 years looking sideways at the dow saying to ourself. Trump in charge and DOW at all time sky high.... anything goes wrong... its a long way down. Well i just did not align viruses with total portfolio liquidation as we had regularly done every year since 2008 and made some money with full Transactional Liquidation at regular intervals. In the process missing a lot of profits but staying liquid. Now that gots offical from MR B that longterm in a MUGS game we can now say its short term only from now on. And AIR was always a short term trade only we did not go SHORT ENOUGH. DISC: sold at 2.10. Looking buy back and trade at .50c. Of course you may say health care is blue chip and we agree but its a low profit return and also can be traded, banks a total right off trade. We see every stock as a trade these days and we noticed that the big boys stayed off this rally globally. Fed as not rolled out the big gun yet, still mired in paper work.

[dobby41]

And then their was only one suitor for Virgin Australia
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/virgin-australias-new-owner-set-to-be-bain-capital/news-story/04ba276124944899f9a10757e07ec89c

[Jaa]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

This is a good point. The world's scientists have repeatedly said we can expect an increase in viruses as humans increase the pressure on nature via forest clearing, burning of rainforests, palm oil plantations, increased agriculture, plantation forests, wildlife trade, pollution, oil consumption, plastic waste etc.

Aviation will always be one of the most affected industries. Pay back I guess for all the environmental destruction it causes.

Halt destruction of nature or suffer even worse pandemics, say world’s top scientists (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/halt-destruction-nature-worse-pandemics-top-scientists)

[Jaa]

Bit silly Singapore Airlines storing A380s in the Australian desert and Qantas storing its A380s in the Mojave Desert in the US (https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qantas-to-axe-more-jobs-as-airline-goes-into-trading-halt/news-story/cb9daedb9eea2aca106266eb956c66e8) isn't it? Qantas a bit slow to secure space? An unlucky and unloved (by airlines) plane that A380.


The Airbus A380 jets, which usually service international routes to and from London and Los Angeles, will instead fly to the US’ Mojave Desert and remain there until the middle of 2023 at least.

Qantas is benefiting from government subsidies to maintain a minimum network otherwise looks to be in a much worse position than Air NZ. Qantas is flying only 15% of domestic capacity (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/some-very-painful-decisions-qantas-throws-weight-behind-jobkeeper-extension-20200625-p55692.html) vs 50-55% for Air NZ.

Those here who claimed that Air NZ would face greater competition from Qantas in NZ are likely to be disappointed. Jetstar in NZ is a marginal business and could just as easily face the chop. An even stronger reason is after many years of competing, Air NZ and Qantas now share passengers on each others domestic networks (in normal times). Why put that at risk?

[macduffy]

I hope they got a bargain!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121959581/virgin-australia-bought-by-private-equity-giant-bain-capital

[bull....]

Talk around Qantas is not full international schedule until late 2021.

Morrison was asked whether he shared the view of Qantas Airways Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce that there was little chance of traveling overseas for at least 12 months.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison signaled that Australia’s borders may remain closed to most international visitors until the middle of next year as the coronavirus crisis escalates across the world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-26/morrison-signals-australian-borders-may-be-closed-until-mid-2021

[winner69]

Ha ha .....the much maligned Jayne Hrdlicka helping Bain out

Might become CEO?

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/jayne-hrdlicka-the-high-flying-executive-behind-bain-s-turbulent-virgin-tilt-20200626-p556ik.html

[Beagle]

Ha ha .....the much maligned Jayne Hrdlicka helping Bain out

Might become CEO?

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/jayne-hrdlicka-the-high-flying-executive-behind-bain-s-turbulent-virgin-tilt-20200626-p556ik.html

Thanks mate, I enjoyed that read.
The aviation industry in deep turmoil + Jayne Herdlicka + Bain Capital wanting a decent return on risk capital + Australian unions already on guard against about Herdlicka's ruthless tactics + disaffected bondholders owed billions + an economy in deep recession and struggling to rid itself of Covid 19...what could possibly go wrong with that mix :D
Chris Luxon must surely be enjoying a wry smile he got AIR out of this forthcoming circus.

[Raz]

Thanks mate, I enjoyed that read.
The aviation industry in deep turmoil + Jayne Herdlicka + Bain Capital wanting a decent return on risk capital + Australian unions already on guard against about Herdlicka's ruthless tactics + disaffected bondholders owed billions + an economy in deep recession and struggling to rid itself of Covid 19...what could possibly go wrong with that mix :D
Chris Luxon must surely be enjoying a wry smile he got AIR out of this forthcoming circus.

I would think only one person hmm I should say party is guaranteed to make a buck out of that deal.

[Xerof]

Well, Virgin is 'rooted', so surely they would have to change the name?

[Beagle]

Well, Virgin is 'rooted', so surely they would have to change the name?

LOL. If I remember correctly they were paying Richard Branson a hefty royalty fee for the use of that name which I am sure they will want to avoid in the future.
Maybe Australian airlines would be a good name to try and stir up some nationalistic enthusiasm.

FMA warns on people abandoning term deposits and newbies getting into the market and AIR gets a specific mention (paywalled article) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12343320

"Retail investors piling in are thought to be part of the reason why the sharemarket has bounced back so quickly, with some people taking a punt on stocks like Air Zealand despite its uncertain prospects".

[winner69]

LOL. If I remember correctly they were paying Richard Branson a hefty royalty fee for the use of that name which I am sure they will want to avoid in the future.
Maybe Australian airlines would be a good name to try and stir up some nationalistic enthusiasm.

FMA warns on people abandoning term deposits and newbies getting into the market and AIR gets a specific mention (paywalled article) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12343320

"Retail investors piling in are thought to be part of the reason why the sharemarket has bounced back so quickly, with some people taking a punt on stocks like Air Zealand despite its uncertain prospects".

I thought TINA was behind all this

[Beagle]

I thought TINA was behind all this

She's moved on, TRINA is the problem now :)

[allfromacell]

Greg must be very concerned about the virus getting back into the community as things slowly start to look a bit better for Air NZ.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121956422/air-nz-ceo-greg-foran-says-100-jobs-saved-domestic-demand-rises?cid=facebook.post&fbclid=IwAR2CrPsYPi_xhfDzZBQOhPUws1LcxLhmGPwcYE4eh 9B6yoP_e1Gd_L1dPgA

[Stranger_Danger]

Greg must be very concerned about the virus getting back into the community as things slowly start to look a bit better for Air NZ.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121956422/air-nz-ceo-greg-foran-says-100-jobs-saved-domestic-demand-rises?cid=facebook.post&fbclid=IwAR2CrPsYPi_xhfDzZBQOhPUws1LcxLhmGPwcYE4eh 9B6yoP_e1Gd_L1dPgA

Two more positive "sign of hope" news releases to come, and then the rights issue.

[Jaa]

Great news for the staff and other stakeholders including shareholders.


Two more positive "sign of hope" news releases to come, and then the rights issue.

You may be right but I would like to see the monthly op stats first. Maybe after the July school holidays bump? The government loan does give Air NZ the flexibility to run their cash levels much lower than they normally would.


Australian-based aviation research centre Capa - Centre for Aviation has forecast domestic air travel capacity in New Zealand will recover to just under 80 per cent of pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of the year.

Lots of encouraging signs about demand from Cam on twitter and the above from CAPA who know far more about the industry than the equity analysts. 80% domestic capacity would be huge, could even be close to break-even on a normalised basis after all the cost savings. Regardless, with 65%+ domestic capacity their losses will seem much more manageable. Huge advantage over other airlines.

Premium looks like its taking longer to recover but cargo is the new premium.

[Jaa]

Greg must be very concerned about the virus getting back into the community as things slowly start to look a bit better for Air NZ.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/121956422/air-nz-ceo-greg-foran-says-100-jobs-saved-domestic-demand-rises?cid=facebook.post&fbclid=IwAR2CrPsYPi_xhfDzZBQOhPUws1LcxLhmGPwcYE4eh 9B6yoP_e1Gd_L1dPgA

Greg definitely voting Labour this year.

[Waltzing]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343635

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121940584/air-new-zealands-coronavirus-refunds-fail-anatomy-of-a-pr-disaster
"I think Air New Zealand's done themselves significant brand damage and people will be a bit gun shy about booking travel".

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/355385/325383.pdf

Despite the talk of things improving the cold hard facts for May 2020, (remember we were out of lockdown in May), are that revenue passenger kilometres flown are down an incredibly sobering 97.1% !

[Waltzing]

I will be booking the new AIR BUS with Singapore Air the whole way next time not the NZ AIR to singapore connecting if possible. Another article in stuff showed the pretty shocking state of lack PPE on AIR NZ international flights compared to full PPE on some other air lines. Who ever is in charge at AIR on this needs to fired. Of course no one gets fired in NZ over any of this and if you suggest there is complete incompetence going all the way to the top you get email. Joyce will by now be in a bunker as the army of supporters descend on his mansion singing songs of the long road and waving big red flags.

and i will check my notifications box .... lucky our created technology is now euro based else i could get run out of dodge.

will still fly AIR to wellington in August to visit the NZSO.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/121957033/coronavirus-passenger-dismayed-at-air-new-zealands-casual-attitude-to-virus

DISC: Travel for mainly business as our technology created here is now euro based and wont be travelling back until 2022. Skype and ZOOM plus HTTP can move our designs between continents.

[King1212]

Aunty Cindy asked u all not to travel for overseas holidays otherwise u all need to pay for the quarantine...

Also donate all your ticket ehh.. our nation needs u all!

[Beagle]

https://www.jetstar.com/nz/en/fly-well

JetStar making free masks and sanitizing wipes available upon request. From a safety point of view it would appear they are the ones offering premium service in N.Z. now. If I fly domestically this year I will back the company that takes customer's health concerns seriously but frankly I have little interest in flying anywhere...travel by private car has never looked so good and with AIR's RPK's down 97% in May it would appear the vast majority agree with my point of view !

[Jim]

There are so many cars and trucks on the road these days I rather stay home or fly if I wants to go outstations. Traffics everywhere when compared with the pass few months. Have to support all those poor AIR shareholders.


Hold AIR

[Waltzing]

"Aunty Cindy asked u all not to travel for overseas holidays otherwise u all need to pay for the quarantine...

Also donate all your ticket ehh.. our nation needs u all!"

your assuming travels are holidays... they are not 100% for us. Wont be travelling until 2022 but not on AIR NZ. Which is a pitty because the last leg from singapore last august was fabulous. The crew were well above average and the food was also great.

"There are so many cars and trucks on the road these days "

well thats what i though or prehaps its just lock down and cycling everyday has created that impression.

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300045458/live-too-dangerous-to-reopen-borders-amid-covid19-pandemic-pm-says
so, its too dangerous to open up the borders. yet punters in AIR think it will all be okay; up 5%

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12344482

After raising nearly $3 Billion the Kangaroo is freshly energised, back here and ready to throw its weight around.

I am expecting them to take full advantage of their very strong financial position.

[Waltzing]

hmmm but i dont want to fly them "Q K" to singapore. terrible service last time i fly them.. that was a long time ago and dont want to go back..prehaps QK is better these decades.

[dobby41]

AIR has halted flights to Melbourne for 2 weeks
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12344611

[Snow Leopard]

hmmm but i dont want to fly them "Q K" to singapore. terrible service last time i fly them.. that was a long time ago and dont want to go back..prehaps QK is better these decades.

:confused: QK is the code for Jazz, a Canadian Regional Airline.

[Snow Leopard]

AIR has halted flights to Melbourne for 2 weeks
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12344611

Melbourne Airport is shut for [at least] two weeks from today, 1-July (exactly 50 years since it opened :() because the Aussies are even worse at quarantining arrivals than Kiwis.

[winner69]

Today at the hearing into the Wellington airport expansion, the Wellington airport gave evidence that they and airnz expect things to be back to normal flight levels, with a covid19 vaccine, by 2021.

Let's see if this optimistic prediction ages well.

[peat]

Today at the hearing into the Wellington airport expansion, the Wellington airport gave evidence that they and airnz expect things to be back to normal flight levels, with a covid19 vaccine, by 2021.

Let's see if this optimistic prediction ages well.

calendar months thats only six away but are they meaning financial year?
if it was specifically just for WLG then its possible I guess maybe, probably not tho.

[winner69]

calendar months thats only six away but are they meaning financial year?
if it was specifically just for WLG then its possible I guess maybe, probably not tho.

Extension of WLG runway into Cook Strait ludicrous plan but they seem he’ll bent on pissing off the locals in still pursuing it.