AIR - Air NZ.

[Waltzing]

under 50 cents...

[biker]

I’m assuming AIR started drawing down the loan on 1/9/20. At 75 mill cash burn per month they will be down to 600 mill by 1/12/20 or not long after at which point they will effectively be insolvent.
They can’t continue to operate with less cash than that.
Before 1/12/20 there is more capital coming from somewhere otherwise Statutory Administration looms to which they have been to within a hair’s breadth of before.
This is hugely political.
Immediately after the election, and only after the election, I think we will see a substantial cash issue announced to the market with the Government's full participation. This will be on the basis of saving the airline from administration at which time it will be very close to, hence providing the Government a legitimate justification.
Fun and games.
Greg Foran has kept well clear of saying the Airline is actually doomed well before the 900 mill has been used up.

[Beagle]

under 50 cents...

I wouldn't participate in a capital raise at that level. On the other hand a very large capital raise (enough to plausibly give them the chance to get to the other side of this unprecedented Covid thing), say 8:1 at 25 cents might pique my interest. That would raise about $2.2 billion, enough for about 3 years operations at $60m a month cash burn. Do it once and do it right and give them the horsepower to survive and climb out of this thing otherwise they risk multiple capital raises.

The risk here is that Greg Foran's 800 day plan to "survive, revive and thrive" ends up really being an 1800 day plan :eek2:

[Marilyn Munroe]

Look what Qantas and Virgin CEOs said yesterday, if that is the thinking at airlines currently..I think i would be moving on as well.

From the Sydney Morning Herald;

"Mr Scurrah said Virgin was hopeful of a travel corridor with New Zealand could be established, even if it only begins with one or two Australian cities."

When this happens Cullen Airlines will have to contend with the spreadsheet jockeys hunting for cash flow.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Jaa]

I’m assuming AIR started drawing down the loan on 1/9/20. At 75 mill cash burn per month they will be down to 600 mill by 1/12/20 or not long after at which point they will effectively be insolvent.
They can’t continue to operate with less cash than that.
Before 1/12/20 there is more capital coming from somewhere otherwise Statutory Administration looms to which they have been to within a hair’s breadth of before.
This is hugely political.
Immediately after the election, and only after the election, I think we will see a substantial cash issue announced to the market with the Government's full participation. This will be on the basis of saving the airline from administration at which time it will be very close to, hence providing the Government a legitimate justification.
Fun and games.
Greg Foran has kept well clear of saying the Airline is actually doomed well before the 900 mill has been used up.

Assume Air NZ will have to announce to the market when they start drawing on the government's loan. No announcement yet.

They still had $200m in cash left as at 25 August so enough for up to two months depending on the timing of any lumpy payments. They won't draw on the $900m until they have to.

Agree after the election is when we can expect a rights issue, underwritten by the government. How much runway will they want? 10 months at $75m/month, about $750m? Monthly cash burn will continue to decline (probably be closer to $50m/mth by January) so $750m could last more than a year. $750m would be a 1:2 rights issue at today's price. A 1:2 rights issue at $1 would be about $500m and a 1:1 rights issue at $1 about $1b.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12362022

Hey Winner...looks like your mate Cam is pretty cozy with Alan Joyce CEO of Qantas and they get on well together.

In his 19 years at Air New Zealand, Wallace has built up strong connections throughout the industry, particularly with alliance partner United Airlines and transtasman rival Qantas, where he gets on well with chief executive Alan Joyce.."I resigned today so that I can focus the next stage of my career on opportunities that allow me to work on the global stage where I deeply enjoy the challenges across geographies, cultures and economies," Wallace says, adding that he's been fortunate enough to have been recently presented "with some professional opportunities".

Probably still miffed he was passed over for the CEO role last year. Probably take all his experience and inside knowledge of AIR over to its most formidable competitor Qantas and then he and Alan Joyce can get nice and cozy.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12362022

Hey Winner...looks like your mate Cam is pretty cozy with Alan Joyce CEO of Qantas and they get on well together.

In his 19 years at Air New Zealand, Wallace has built up strong connections throughout the industry, particularly with alliance partner United Airlines and transtasman rival Qantas, where he gets on well with chief executive Alan Joyce.."I resigned today so that I can focus the next stage of my career on opportunities that allow me to work on the global stage where I deeply enjoy the challenges across geographies, cultures and economies," Wallace says, adding that he's been fortunate enough to have been recently presented "with some professional opportunities".

Probably still miffed he was passed over for the CEO role last year. Probably take all his experience and inside knowledge of AIR over to its most formidable competitor Qantas and then he and Alan Joyce can get nice and cozy.

Some of his twitter mates have been asking him about QF ......hmm

[Beagle]

.............................

[Beagle]

Some of his twitter mates have been asking him about QF ......hmm

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=tSqUFUwT&id=D777325E7EBAB501FE6E04AE30280B186381AE0F&thid=OIP.tSqUFUwTiOxi8FpkNplrswHaHa&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.thelibertybeacon.com%2fw p-content%2fuploads%2f2014%2f06%2fLast-nail-in-coffin.jpg&exph=300&expw=300&q=Nail+in+the+Coffin+Meme&simid=608011620886908069&ck=9D7531E21DE663F843FAB51C73A50D38&selectedIndex=2&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0

[winner69]

Beagle - he's hanging around to give Greg hugs and cuddles (at a huge hourly rate) when Greg needs them

Probably tells everybody he's indispensable at Air ..... usually of that's the case nobody will miss him.


Maybe starts with QF after Christmas when travel might be easier

[biker]

JAA, No reason why AIR should announce the drawdown of the loan. They said last week it would be within days.

[Jaa]

JAA, No reason why AIR should announce the drawdown of the loan. They said last week it would be within days.

Surely that would count as material?

[winner69]

Wonder when Cam will hock off his shares ...over half a million of the

Share price not as high as it was last year...but then he got most for free

[Baa_Baa]

Wonder when Cam will hock off his shares ...over half a million of the

Share price not as high as it was last year...but then he got most for free

Good point presume he better do it soon before this is a 21 cent company like last time

[Waltzing]

still the share price defying gravity... maybe its just doesnt know its a hard landing .... like sky city today.. no real profit but the price went up... maybe its not going to crash land...

[Beagle]

Beagle - he's hanging around to give Greg hugs and cuddles (at a huge hourly rate) when Greg needs them

Probably tells everybody he's indispensable at Air ..... usually of that's the case nobody will miss him.


Maybe starts with QF after Christmas when travel might be easier

So he has to wait until the new year before he can start giving Alan Joyce hugs and cuddles or is there plenty of love to spread around and no need to wait ;)

[Beagle]

still the share price defying gravity... maybe its just doesnt know its a hard landing .... like sky city today.. no real profit but the price went up... maybe its not going to crash land...

Airline index in the US is up 80% from the lows so AIR defying gravity is not a unique situation by any means. Millions of new punters on Robin Hood and other platforms (like our Sharsies) with nothing else to do seeing as horse racing isn't happening and casino's are closed. All predicated on assuming we'll get a Covid vaccine later this year or very early next and everything goes back to the way it was...what a wonderful fairy tale.

[Waltzing]

".what a wonderful fairy tale."

Volatility is back ...

well i hope it takes time... more trading ..our longs were set back in may and they werent the likes of AIR. Cruise lines up 45%. Air may simply never crash because no one is looking at the numbers just like sky city yesterday.

[Blue Skies]

On a day when stocks raking in the money like FPH down 5.41% and ATM down 2.77%, good old AIR barely registering a pulse & after losing one of its most experienced & valuable senior executives, plummets from 1.35 to end the day at 1.34.

The mind boggles, throw all the text books & everything you've ever learnt out on this one.

Noted some commentators saying AIR board probably regretting not giving the top job to Cam now, as Greg for all his strengths has no experience in the airline business, just when its never been more needed.

[nztx]

On a day when stocks raking in the money like FPH down 5.41% and ATM down 2.77%, good old AIR barely registering a pulse & after losing one of its most experienced & valuable senior executives, plummets from 1.35 to end the day at 1.34.

The mind boggles, throw all the text books & everything you've ever learnt out on this one.

Noted some commentators saying AIR board probably regretting not giving the top job to Cam now, as Greg for all his strengths has no experience in the airline business, just when its never been more needed.


Good points there too

[Beagle]

I think there's a quite a lot of people thinking there will be a soft landing and Grant Robertson will be there with plenty of "fuel" and then everything is going to be hunky dory.

[nztx]

I think there's a quite a lot of people thinking there will be a soft landing and Grant Robertson will be there with plenty of "fuel" and then everything is going to be hunky dory.

Enough fuel for another RB raid assuming they can fill a paperbag with some of what may not come back any time soon ?

Also assuming that Robertson survives to ride another raid..

[winner69]

AIRplanes busy as today flying up and down the country ....probably charging like wounded bulls as well.

[Heimand]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12362281

The way they are talking about loan as is without interest!

[Blue Skies]

AIRplanes busy as today flying up and down the country ....probably charging like wounded bulls as well.


With Level 2 distancing/capacity restraints on domestic flights until at least 16 Sept i.e. unoccupied seat next to every passenger, probably still losing money on every flight.

[stoploss]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12362281

The way they are talking about loan as is without interest!
You have to take everything Jonesy says with a pinch of salt . This is a guy that bashes the banks for closing branches , when one that he might have a bit of a say in ( Kiwibank ) is also closing branches ..... If it's a poor idea to close branches why wasn't he directing some of his PGF money to Kiwibank to establish more branches .....
Just trying to get some headlines to try and win his first electorate seat ........

[Zaphod]

AIRplanes busy as today flying up and down the country ....probably charging like wounded bulls as well.

We've booked a couple of flights next month and they're back to around their normal levels. Not unreasonable unless you book last minute.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122665658/silence-from-government-and-air-nz-raises-questions-about-future-ownership?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+8+S eptember+2020

[Waltzing]

yes i was about to post... beaten by the Man! Again!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122665658/silence-from-government-and-air-nz-raises-questions-about-future-ownership


not even a barge pole is going to be good enough......shocked share holders will need government assistance as they are evacuated from the landing site ....Hugs from Jacinda.. kind words... donate teddy bears... saved old coins... any old australian coins you can donate ... anything really...

[Beagle]

LOL Mate. Marcus Curly has usually impressed me on the calls I have listened into but lets get real here. A capital raise of $1.2 Billion (2:1 @ 50 cents underwritten by the Govt ?), is very unlikely to get them through to the other side of the Covid crisis. Just the first capital raise I reckon.

More trouble coming for AIR's so called "Dreamliners" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/07/faa-reviews-boeing-dreamliner-quality-control-lapses-wsj-reports.html

Winner reckons once a lemon, always a lemon and I think he's spot on ! Name change to "Nightmareliners" is long overdue.

[winner69]

Beagle ...all AIR 787’s back in AIR

Phil (tech pilot) took Captain Dave for a jaunt to check thie one that had been in storage since early February

Exciting stuff eh

@PhilipKirk6
A fine Auckland morning to return our final @FlyAirNZ 787 to the air after storage. Also nice to be out with our Chief Pilot Capt. David Morgan on this flight. 14 787s (our entire 787 fleet) ready to move cargo and repatriate our customers. Big thanks to our engineers once again!

[Waltzing]

"oh dear i hear the fat lady singing" the government has simply kicked for touch but the field is soaked with rain and no one can see the teams anymore.... it game over... government has presided over a market beware event. If you invest in this market company it buyer beware and the government has to step up and take the equity hit. Times running out and nothing now will get done till xmas?

Lets hope cargo is profitable.

[Beagle]

Beagle ...all AIR 787’s back in AIR

Phil (tech pilot) took Captain Dave for a jaunt to check thie one that had been in storage since early February

Exciting stuff eh

@PhilipKirk6
A fine Auckland morning to return our final @FlyAirNZ 787 to the air after storage. Also nice to be out with our Chief Pilot Capt. David Morgan on this flight. 14 787s (our entire 787 fleet) ready to move cargo and repatriate our customers. Big thanks to our engineers once again!

I still haven't flown in one with their "nightmare" 17.3 inch seat width. My office chair is 19.5 inches wide and I'm looking for a new one, https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=FkmmvOCO&id=82799347551C3C67525C9F1692D1C0D70C0DE702&thid=OIP.FkmmvOCO8xweDIREf0F5OwHaE8&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.dogster.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2017%2f09%2fA-fat-and-overweight-beagle-dog.jpg&exph=400&expw=600&q=picture+of+fat+beagle&simid=608041045691466259&ck=C821CB3076D07FA70650FCC7039C266E&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0 enough said lol

[Beagle]

"oh dear i hear the fat lady singing" the government has simply kicked for touch but the field is soaked with rain and no one can see the teams anymore.... it game over... government has presided over a market beware event. If you invest in this market company it buyer beware and the government has to step up and take the equity hit. Times running out and nothing now will get done till xmas?

Lets hope cargo is profitable.

Cargo was just 6% of their revenue last year IIRC. $75m a month cash burn (at the mid point) was stated assuming no social distancing on aircraft which currently isn't the case. I would think current cash burn would be over the top end of guidance of $85m per month, possibly a little more than $100m a month at present.

No wonder they want $439 each way Auckland to Hokitika next week :eek2:

[winner69]

I still haven't flown in one with their "nightmare" 17.3 inch seat width. My office chair is 19.5 inches wide and I'm looking for a new one, https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=FkmmvOCO&id=82799347551C3C67525C9F1692D1C0D70C0DE702&thid=OIP.FkmmvOCO8xweDIREf0F5OwHaE8&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.dogster.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2017%2f09%2fA-fat-and-overweight-beagle-dog.jpg&exph=400&expw=600&q=picture+of+fat+beagle&simid=608041045691466259&ck=C821CB3076D07FA70650FCC7039C266E&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0 enough said lol

Those Dreamliners are awful mate .....even in the wider seats

Office must be comfortable (and safe) .....all tax deductible these days isn’t it.

[winner69]

Seems that many are forgetting the govt assistance needs to be repaid ........unless the intent is to nationalise the thing.

Just as well punters have provided $800m of that liquidity in prepaid fares .....one should question the morality of spending that to stay afloat?

[Beagle]

Those Dreamliners are awful mate .....even in the wider seats

Office must be comfortable (and safe) .....all tax deductible these days isn’t it.

Yes indeed, we're still in the Covid business stimulus period where any asset under $5,000 + GST can be expensed in full in the year of purchase.

Sounds like I haven't missed anything with the Dreamliner...actually did sit in their business class seat at the 75th anniversary celebration Te Papa exhibition where they had examples of the new economy, premium economy and business class "Dreamliner" seats and you're quite right, even the business class seats are super tight for big dogs. Funnily enough they also had a section of the old flying boats there from when they first started flying. The amount of space back then was incredible ! If Mrs B and I ever get to Switzerland it won't be on an AIR Nightmareliner I can assure you of that !

As for trading while technically insolvent, (which is what they are doing now) we urgently need legislative change to protect consumers. This non refundable thing so they can claim that prepaid travel is technically not a liability is morally and ethically repugnant and farcical. Many European countries and in the USA prepaid airfares must be refunded upon request if the service can't be provided. Why not the same here ?

[Waltzing]

"No wonder they want $439 each way Auckland to Hokitika next week :eek2:
"

i had a great price to wellington and back in 3 weeks.. not sure what it would be now... i should have locked it in..for the NZSO.

[dobby41]

[COLOR=#333333]
"No wonder they want $439 each way Auckland to Hokitika next week :eek2:
"

i had a great price to wellington and back in 3 weeks.. not sure what it would be now... i should have locked it in..for the NZSO.


I have found the prices for all my recent flights to be reasonable.
Certainly the cheap cheap ones are gone but the next tier is acceptable.
I haven't seen any price gouging but tend to plan ahead. Already booked a few for next year.

[Beagle]

I have found the prices for all my recent flights to be reasonable.
Certainly the cheap cheap ones are gone but the next tier is acceptable.
I haven't seen any price gouging but tend to plan ahead. Already booked a few for next year.

Price gouging is rampant all over the country at present for anyone that has to travel on short notice for business.

[dobby41]

Price gouging is rampant all over the country at present for anyone that has to travel on short notice for business.

How are you defining 'price gouging'?
Are they making excessive profits?

[Waltzing]

anyone made sense of the op stats...

[blackcap]

anyone made sense of the op stats...

I have no idea what they mean, however the market seems to like it as Air are up.

[Beagle]

How are you defining 'price gouging'?
Are they making excessive profits?

Touché...can't argue that point :)

[Tomtom]

The prices seem reasonable but I wonder if the airlines previous approach of not refunding New Zealand customers for services they could not provide may cause consumers to think twice before booking? If consumers believe a local outbreak, such as the one in Auckland, or government buy-out could cause cancelled flights they may be reticent about booking.

[dobby41]

The prices seem reasonable but I wonder if the airlines previous approach of not refunding New Zealand customers for services they could not provide may cause consumers to think twice before booking? If consumers believe a local outbreak, such as the one in Auckland, or government buy-out could cause cancelled flights they may be reticent about booking.

I'm booking as I am still using my credits - and will be for a while yet.

[winner69]

anyone made sense of the op stats...

Says domestically July ASK was down about 30% on last year and they had about 24,000 passengers to/from other places

And pleaded poverty and said next year is **** as well

[Waltzing]

I received refunds for my international air fares for this year booked last year with AIR - ACKL - COPEN return business class a few weeks ago. Refund took 8 weeks to process from AIR. They are refunding international travel air fares. I will probably book singapore next time but i did enjoy the 787 last time but singapore have the new air bus and might try that next time, 2022.

Thanks W(n) only 30 % local travel down is pretty good. Maybe the government can send everyone in government back and forth for a while and that will prop up the profits, only 60 million a month. Just send all government departments around the country to work desk destinations and that should also prop up the commercial property market.

Get the departments out and about to meet the customers, i mean the to be poor penniless tax payer people because they did not take up Mr O great offer of direct bonds purchases...

just do a BOJ and get MR O to buy bonds direct from AIR... simple..

[dobby41]

I received refunds for my international air fares for this year booked last year with AIR - ACKL - COPEN return business class a few weeks ago. Refund took 8 weeks to process from AIR.

I got a refund for a Nth American fare while I waited on the phone - took the person around 15min while they reversed all the little bits, taxes etc, for 2 people.
I'm not surprised it took 8 weeks - seemed like a lot of key pressing to unwind it all so multiply that by the numbers wanting refunds ...

[Jaa]

Only Beagle could accuse a company of being technically insolvent, burning $100m cash a month and of price gouging in the same day! :D

[Beagle]

Not a bad effort for one day. Reminds me of the old Meat Loaf song, "two out of three ain't bad". Leave it for others to judge if Auckland to Hokitika return for $878 is price gouging or not.

[Jaa]

Not a bad effort for one day. Reminds me of the old Meat Loaf song, "two out of three ain't bad". Leave it for others to judge if Auckland to Hokitika return for $878 is price gouging or not.

Social distancing means turboprop air fares need to a least double to cover the spare seat and probably even triple once you factor in diseconomies of scale.

Guess you could always walk, swim, find a boat or ride the Jetstar you were talking up. Oh wait...

[winner69]

Only Beagle could accuse a company of being technically insolvent, burning $100m cash a month and of price gouging in the same day! :D

You missed the and ethically repugnant bit lol

[BlackPeter]

Not a bad effort for one day. Reminds me of the old Meat Loaf song, "two out of three ain't bad". Leave it for others to judge if Auckland to Hokitika return for $878 is price gouging or not.

It is expensive, however - the small routes have always been expensive. I remember some years ago we had to fly from Christchurch to Gisborne (which is pretty much comparable in terms of distance and the involvement of wee airports). This trip set us back at that time by roughly $700 per person, despite plenty of advance booking time. Christchurch Auckland return was at that time something like $200. I guess these small planes are really dear to operate per passenger and social distancing these days does not make them cheaper.

If you want to save money fly to Christchurch and do the 3 hour trip to Hokitika with a rental car. Not sure I recommend that (unless you like the driving - it is a scenic route through the mountains), but then - you could in that case even pop by at our place :): Let me know (PM) if you want to ...

[Waltzing]

"Refund took 8 weeks"

better than NO refund...

and im glad my lungs are still ok...

[winner69]

Talk of AIR crashing and being nationalised ...like the old NAC was a bit like this in the paper the other day about a Vickers Viscount skidding off the end of Wellington airport


https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/69538759/plane-crashes-off-wellington-runway---150-years-of-news

And more photos here

https://twitter.com/rosspnz/status/1302106048203907072?s=21

[Baa_Baa]

Talk of AIR crashing and being nationalised ...like the old NAC was a bit like this in the paper the other day about a Vickers Viscount skidding off the end of Wellington airport


https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/69538759/plane-crashes-off-wellington-runway---150-years-of-news

And more photos here

https://twitter.com/rosspnz/status/1302106048203907072?s=21

You’re a bundle of joy today, everything OK?

[winner69]

You’re a bundle of joy today, everything OK?

Fine as .....just love historical things

And a good day on the market (except for Heartland)

You fine I hope

[Baa_Baa]

Fine as .....just love historical things

And a good day on the market (except for Heartland)

You fine I hope

Great thanks winner, all good just quietly hoping I can get some more heartland lower than Snoopy’s fair value $1.18 before the results.

I do like it when my favourites present good value, only question imo is whether they’ll continue the dividend, if so, this is sold down enough and has a nice upside, again imo.

Cheers BAA

🤩

[nztx]

Only Beagle could accuse a company of being technically insolvent, burning $100m cash a month and of price gouging in the same day! :D


Hey come on .. AIR gained 1/2 a cent today courtesy of offloading the said refunds .. ;)

[Beagle]

Only Beagle could accuse a company of being technically insolvent, burning $100m cash a month and of price gouging in the same day! :D

Be grateful I didn't get the time today to comment on the shocking July operating statistics :eek2:

[Waltzing]

equity raises should see the number of share tripple, im expecting 50 cents... the GOVMT has basically closed its eyes for months and just dont want to see there equity decimated ... smashed... crushed... pulverised ... almost eviscerate!... it basically a slow train wreck... sorry a long glide path to a belly landing ... brace brace brace..

Minister Robinson Crusoe has basically been staring down the runway waving his arms with orange guiding paddles flailing in the air as the 747 comes into land wheels up...turbines spinning slowly...


(787 structural issues inspections Boeing shares under pressure )

[Marilyn Munroe]

Minister Robinson Crusoe has basically been staring down the runway waving his arms with orange guiding paddles flailing in the air as the 747 comes into land wheels up...turbines spinning slowly...


No no, Grant Robertson will have a cunning plan to save the airline and protect the the taxpayer, backed by sound advice from that intellectual colossus the Ministry of Transport.

There is also the slight possibility his execution skills will revert to the mean for a Labour cabinet minister.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Waltzing]

"revert to the mean for a Labour cabinet minister"

oh thats not good, better get the fire engines out and FOAM the RUNWAY!!!

"intellectual colossus the Ministry of Transport"

oh dear im thinking the fast rail from hamilton to auckland. Wont be taking that trip anytime soon.

[dobby41]

Not a bad effort for one day. Reminds me of the old Meat Loaf song, "two out of three ain't bad". Leave it for others to judge if Auckland to Hokitika return for $878 is price gouging or not.

What would it have cost pre covid?
Do you think they make much profit on that?

[Sideshow Bob]

End of the day, cost of flying these days is cheaper than ever before. Just that people now expect to fly Queenstown to Auckland any time for <$300 return, and forget the laws of supply and demand.

Waaaaaay back, 30 years remember I flew AKL-INV on a super-thrifty fare - cheapest possible. $594 back then which the reserve bank tells me that is equivalent of $1,064.74 now.

1st world problems - don't like it, don't fly.

[Waltzing]

Hand made aero planes probably cost more than a modern flight computer controlled solution. Chips are cheap and manufacturing is automated for many components. Fuel is also cheap now and getting cheaper.

[BlackPeter]

Hand made aero planes probably cost more than a modern flight computer controlled solution. Chips are cheap and manufacturing is automated for many components. Fuel is also cheap now and getting cheaper.

Sounds like it is some time since you purchased the last modern airplane :p;

[Waltzing]

carbon fibre is cheaper then wood ->() when compared to its performance.. 3 D printing is cheaper than putting a person on the job.

[Beagle]

What would it have cost pre covid?
Do you think they make much profit on that?

"Fare" enough. (You see what I did there :) )

[winner69]

Hey Beagle - there's some Hokitika flights at over $500 - one way

Only time i've ever flown out of Hokitika I was a bit worried - the guy taking me to the airport went up this steep hill and I said where we going and he said the airport at the top of the hill ..... becasue when it was at the bottom of the hill it was always flooded. You seem to head off down the run way and over the cliff and then out to sea before climbing to get over the mountains.

[Beagle]

Hey Beagle - there's some Hokitika flights at over $500 - one way

Only time i've ever flown out of Hokitika I was a bit worried - the guy taking me to the airport went up this steep hill and I said where we going and he said the airport at the top of the hill ..... becasue when it was at the bottom of the hill it was always flooded. You seem to head off down the run way and over the cliff and then out to sea before climbing to get over the mountains.

That's just cruel...yanking the dog's tail like that :) $566 on one day later this month...must be a big convention going on at Gloriavale that day eh ;)

[BlackPeter]

That's just cruel...yanking the dog's tail like that :) $566 on one day later this month...must be a big convention going on at Gloriavale that day eh ;)
$89 total on 5 November for both legs AKl to Chch and Chch to Hokitika - Definitely no price gouging going on then ;)

Not necessarily - under Level 2 probably just 25 available seats in the plane ... you don't need a big convention to fill that up.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12363768
Air New Zealand chief operating officer Carrie Hurihanganui says the recovery of the airline's international network post-Covid-19 is now looking to be slower than initially thought. "The recent resurgence of cases in New Zealand is a reminder that this is a highly volatile situation. We are not anticipating a return to any 777 flying until September 2021 at the earliest, which is why we have made the decision to ground the fleet until at least this time next year,"
Emphasis added.

All 777-300's to be heavily written down in value in FY21 ?

[dobby41]

Price gouging is rampant all over the country at present for anyone that has to travel on short notice for business.

You'd be keen on NZ1st getting some power.
Winston wants to own all of AIR then the Govt could set the prices - profitable or not.

[Beagle]

No no, Grant Robertson will have a cunning plan to save the airline and protect the the taxpayer, backed by sound advice from that intellectual colossus the Ministry of Transport.

There is also the slight possibility his execution skills will revert to the mean for a Labour cabinet minister.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

WOW that was really prophetic. Its turns out he has and its called milking the highest earners with the tax rate going up to 39% for anyone earning over $180K a year, quite coincidentally the exact profile of the majority of those who travel on business at short notice on AIR and already pay premium fares. Interestingly and in another remarkable coincidence this tax increase is estimated to bring in $500m per annum which by my calculations is remarkably close to what the N.Z. Govt's share of the support AIR will need each year during the Govt's next term.

This amounts to a new form of price gouging and in effect wealthy businessmen who already pay hefty prices for short notice business travel are effectively being charged even more to support AIR through the tax system without even realising it ! Now that's double dipping on price gouging if ever I saw it !!

Now that really is an extremely cunning plan. But wait...as they say in the marketing game, there's more ! By keeping AIR afloat they rake back in most of the $500m in support each year in GST and PAYE so their support is basically an illusion and merely a money swapping exercise.

I doubt you'll ever see a more cunning plan...unless of course they wait until AIR is on its knees and do a Sept 11 MK2 bailout at 25 cents a share fully underwritten by the Govt and grab a much more substantial stake off minority shareholders !

[percy]

Come on I can't see any wealthy business paying for his airline ticket.
Even a poor bookseller claimed his as a business expense.

[Beagle]

Come on I can't see any wealthy business paying for his airline ticket.
Even a poor bookseller claimed his as a business expense.

As I recall it mate, you always choose to fly Jetstar ;)

Come on, that's a great conspiracy theory I've dreamed up. Got to give me at least a pass mark for creativity :D

[percy]

As I recall it mate, you always choose to fly Jetstar ;)

Come on mate, that's a great conspiracy theory I've dreamed up. Got to give me at least a pass mark for creativity :D

Yes right on two counts.
1]Very creative.
2]And yes always Jetstar.
Why Jetstar? Two reasons.
1] Could manage their web site.
2] Their flight times suited me.

.

[Waltzing]

we bought most of our euros to NZ a few months back... starting to regret that now.. Keep your euros over there and any travel and accomodation bookings..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/european-central-bank-could-announce-policy-tweaks-this-week.html

if you cant get AIR back in 2022-23 try Singapore new air bus, business class.

Looking for a new apartment in skane to rent before prices go sky high in 2021 book now for your european apartments.

In respect to the new milking tax we suggest you try Estonia for your LTD business affairs.

[dobby41]

TigerAir is gone burger
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/tigerair-collapses-australian-airline-shut-down-due-to-coronavirus-impact/news-story/0d8a3fe3594a4986b841fa896072347d

[macduffy]

Something else to worry about.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122748100/boeing-manufacturing-issues-could-have-implications-for-air-new-zealands-dreamliner-fleet

[winner69]

I always felt sorry for this guy when his Dreamliner crashed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEZ0EuRFLgs&t=4s

Must have known something

Dreamliners - once a lemon always a lemon

[Beagle]

I used to be into model planes as a kid. Nothing that flash but I feel that guys pain.
Potender for shareholders pain in the near future ?

Speaking of aircraft models...crikey they have come a long way from the basic balsa wood ones I used to fly ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmELxw-ORQA&feature=emb_rel_end

[Heimand]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122748110/brisbane-to-la-air-new-zealands-newest-route-a-sign-of-the-times

[iceman]

I always felt sorry for this guy when his Dreamliner crashed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEZ0EuRFLgs&t=4s

Must have known something

Dreamliners - once a lemon always a lemon

I love travelling in the Dreamliners. The most comfortable and enjoyable ride in the skies.

[Zaphod]

I love travelling in the Dreamliners. The most comfortable and enjoyable ride in the skies.

Agreed - We traveled to HNL in economy and it was far more pleasant than in the 777-200 or 300's. The increased cabin pressure and higher humidity really did make a big difference.

[Teatree]

Yep I concur the 787 is way better than 777 etc for comfort A350 is pretty dam good also. The bummer is when will one get to use them again

[Waltzing]

will fly the Abus 350 , taking it back in 2022..on singapore.. Business class looks very nice. Not going back to euro land until this things has burned out and a second gen vaccine arrives..

Staying well off the beaten track till then..

[Beagle]

Great news ! You can now cuddle up to that stranger jammed in like a sardine next to you with not a care in the world...or so they tell us...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12364774

[RTM]

Great news ! You can now cuddle up to that stranger jammed in like a sardine next to you with not a care in the world...or so they tell us...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12364774

You can always buy two seats !

[Beagle]

You can always buy two seats !

True that but better still, drive my own car !

[allfromacell]

Welcome back Jetstar

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/09/jetstar-announces-return-to-new-zealand-skies-following-government-announcement.html

[dobby41]

Welcome back Jetstar

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/09/jetstar-announces-return-to-new-zealand-skies-following-government-announcement.html

Fair weather friends only.
I won't be booking them no matter what rate they offer.

[Jaa]

Good move, there has been no documented spread of COVID onboard an aircraft in NZ and very few around the world.

One thing we have learnt in this pandemic is ventilation and length of exposure are key factors, airplanes completely cycle the air in the cabin every 4 mins. The masks and phased boarding/deplaning offer added layers of protection.

Unfair for the airlines to always bare the financial cost for everyone. As RTM says if you are still not convinced, buy two seats.

[Jaa]

Beagle, do let us know how this is bad news somehow too. :confused:

Air New Zealand releases $50 flights as social distancing rules relaxed for plane passengers (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/09/air-new-zealand-releases-50-flights-as-social-distancing-rules-relaxed-for-plane-passengers.html)


The airline is also removing change fees for domestic flights booked for travel up until March 31, 2021.

[stoploss]

Beagle, do let us know how this is bad news somehow too. :confused:

Air New Zealand releases $50 flights as social distancing rules relaxed for plane passengers (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/09/air-new-zealand-releases-50-flights-as-social-distancing-rules-relaxed-for-plane-passengers.html)
At $ 50 a flight it will take 12 months till they get any actual paying customers (so no revenue) .Everyone I know has a big credit with Air NZ,going to take quite a while to work through it .......

[Beagle]

Beagle, do let us know how this is bad news somehow too. :confused:

Air New Zealand releases $50 flights as social distancing rules relaxed for plane passengers (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/09/air-new-zealand-releases-50-flights-as-social-distancing-rules-relaxed-for-plane-passengers.html)

I think you should disclose you work for AIR in their public relations department :p
Even with this the mid point of AIR's cash burn forecast is $75m per month. That's $2.5m cash burned every single day.

AIR did okay domestically when the whole country was at level 1. Just because its expedient for the Govt to say its safe to travel like a sardine if everyone behaves and wears a mask I think Aucklanders under level 2.5 are smarter than you give them credit for and know its much riskier now than in July under level 1.

[Waltzing]

I used to know accountants that could add so fast with pencil and paper (family members) that they could do a set of accounts on an A4 page. 2.5 million a day? 50 dollars flights? im going in to see my travel agent toMw....now where can i go.... not far... and 50 dollars? i think i might just take lots of small flight around kiwi land (new name for the country) better for marketing than ATEAROWA.. never go to work in europe for tourism... Kiwi Land will work.

[Jaa]

I think you should disclose you work for AIR in their public relations department :p
Even with this the mid point of AIR's cash burn forecast is $75m per month. That's $2.5m cash burned every single day.

AIR did okay domestically when the whole country was at level 1. Just because its expedient for the Govt to say its safe to travel like a sardine if everyone behaves and wears a mask I think Aucklanders under level 2.5 are smarter than you give them credit for and know its much riskier now than in July under level 1.

Beagle there have been an awful lot of flights since COVID appeared and very, very few documented onboard infections. Please don't lose your mind and join the crazies. Air onboard an aircraft is completely changed every 4 mins and blows down into the floor not into people's faces. But yes, personal responsibility also plays a role, wear a decent mask, wash your hands/sanitise, book another seat or don't fly. Thought that was your kind of politics anyway?

Sorry to disappoint I do not work for Air NZ or anyone related, just calling it as I see it. How's your short position in Air NZ going?

[Beagle]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52822913

But virologist Dr Tang disagrees: "The problem is that if you're sitting next to somebody - 0.6 metres in economy, say - who's coughing and sneezing in that immediate area, that aerosol will reach you before it has time to reach the filtration system, get filtered and come back down again."

Profitable and going to very much more so.

[blackcap]

OK lets put that one to bed. As far as I can ascertain there is no filtration system. Use ATR72 as example. Hot bleed air is taken from engines this is cooled expanded heat removed and recompressed, this gives cold air which is mixed in a chamber with hot bleed air to get the correct temp, recirculated cabin air is also added to the mix, this air is pumped into the cabin and exits at floor level on left side of aircraft, a % is re cycled back into the cabin by blending with the fresh bleed air. There are no viral level filters , infact viruses may well be recycled many times before the end of the flight. Aircraft don't carry much unnecessary stuff, like filters etc.

That said I have been informed that the A320's have hepa filters on the recirc air only. But yes, the rest of it is bleed air from the 5th compressor stage.

[Jaa]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52822913

But virologist Dr Tang disagrees: "The problem is that if you're sitting next to somebody - 0.6 metres in economy, say - who's coughing and sneezing in that immediate area, that aerosol will reach you before it has time to reach the filtration system, get filtered and come back down again."

Profitable and going to very much more so.

You have cherry picked the only negative quote from that article. Even Dr Tang concludes he will still fly (with a mask).

[Beagle]

You have cherry picked the only negative quote from that article. Even Dr Tang concludes he will still fly (with a mask).

Dr Tang, meanwhile, says he would fly with precautions. "If I get on a plane, I'll be wearing a mask. It's not 100% but at least I'll have some protection."

That sounds very much to me like If I have to fly, I will with precautions. I don't have to fly so won't and I'd bet good money (and have) that the real nub of the issue is that
flying has completely flipped on its head from something you enjoy when you want too to something you endure when you have too.

[Baa_Baa]

Dr Tang, meanwhile, says he would fly with precautions. "If I get on a plane, I'll be wearing a mask. It's not 100% but at least I'll have some protection."

That sounds very much to me like If I have to fly, I will with precautions. I don't have to fly so won't and I'd bet good money (and have) that the real nub of the issue is that
flying has completely flipped on its head from something you enjoy when you want too to something you endure when you have too.

Totally agree with that, I’m not extending a contract that requires me to fly to the COVID capital of NZ. Auckland. Stuff that. Might be a while until something comes up that I can do from home or a local office but I’m not into the airline commuter thing anymore.

[dobby41]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52822913

But virologist Dr Tang disagrees: "The problem is that if you're sitting next to somebody - 0.6 metres in economy, say - who's coughing and sneezing in that immediate area, that aerosol will reach you before it has time to reach the filtration system, get filtered and come back down again."

Profitable and going to very much more so.

Need to pick another expert.
It would also be good if people followed the advice that if you are coughing and sneezing don't go on a plane (or train, or bus, or shopping etc).
I don't think your patronage will be missed.

[winner69]

Everybody so so happy

Jeez 70,000 is a lot of passengers ....and more happy people to come

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/426065/air-nz-sells-70-000-seats-in-six-hours-after-rules-relaxed


One good thing ...hope it’ll stop the people of Queenstown whinging on and on

[Sideshow Bob]

One good thing ...hope it’ll stop the people of Queenstown whinging on and on

Let's hope it stops that hypocrite Jim Boult whining. Probably not, will be something else next.

As a ratepayer in the district, hope we get a decent contender against him for mayor.

[Waltzing]

Sorry. how many people per plane?

Is the government funding this tiki tour of 70,000 passengers?

part of the plan....

Not taking up MR O plan for direct bond buying was a big mistake also the selling of the entire cap raising program to the RBNZ is also a mistake.

Its still a hard landing wheels up.

but gets some tourism going..at the shareholders expense.

did govt twist the ceo's arm...

[blackcap]

Sorry. how many people per plane?

Is the government funding this tiki tour of 70,000 passengers?

part of the plan....

Not taking up MR O plan for direct bond buying was a big mistake also the selling of the entire cap raising program to the RBNZ is also a mistake.

Its still a hard landing wheels up.

but gets some tourism going..at the shareholders expense.

did govt twist the ceo's arm...

I have just booked tickets for 2 of us to go to an AGM in Auckland next month. $148 return from Wellington. Sweet deal. Normally we would be looking at at least double that. I suppose the seats are there and available so the marginal cost is zero if its the middle seat they are selling.

[Waltzing]

I will be booking hamilton to wellington if the NZSO puts on a concert im interested in. Was going this month but oh well. Yes it will certainly increase travel options for all those of us stuck here. Was due to be in st petersberg for the ballet season, oh well 2022.

[Beagle]

"Blind Freddy" should be able to see that a major deeply discounted cash issue is coming in the near future.

[Waltzing]

""Blind Freddy"

how many shares is he expecting to buy? :eek2:

[Beagle]

LOL Its a saying mate.

Blind Freddie
[Blind Freddie]
NOUN
Blind Freddy (noun)
an imaginary person supposed to have little or no perception.

[Waltzing]

:eek2:

how many "Blind Freddies" are there in air NZ share registry....

cant be many ...there are bots buying at 135 every n seconds at the moment...

Bots are blind right? Oh my gosh they are not BOTS nor "Blind Freddies"

Obviously no "Blind Freddies" today accept the ones selling AIR ...

who still owns AIR....

not "Blind Freddie"

can someone please tell me how much profit AIR is making on 70,000 seats at 50 KIWIS (not the little brown bird) a seat.

for those who dont hold euros a KIWI is slight more than half a Euro...

Your KIWIS are not worth much ...Halve the profits and double the loses and now how do you feel.

[Zaphod]

They're probably buying in hope that the government acquires 100% of the airline after the election.

After that, hopefully I'll be able to ride a 787-9 to Gisborne and land there while the train is crossing the runway. That'll be exciting on multiple levels.

[Waltzing]

Im stil with MR B on this one... the government arnt going to buy them out at 1.35 when they can wait till all the money is gone and buy them at 50 cents or less?

i dont think the government has a plan , its flying in a storm and cant see anyway out.

They barely bailed themselves out on a tourism game.

Now i dont know one end of a rugby field pitch to the other. All looks the same too me.

But AIR is going to be a lot more complex that that little tourism problem.

Dont know why the south isnt on level 1.5 what ever that is..

Im sure someone has a plan for this company but no one around the world has much of a plan for airlines in this situation.

one solution: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/airlines-sell-flights-to-nowhere-that-take-off-land-in-one-place.html

[Blue Skies]

Would Air ever consider resuming Antarctic flights? Would there even be a market for that?

[Beagle]

Shareholders are on a financial trip to Mt Erebus whether they realize it or not...for anyone else that wants to go there without major financial damage there's this https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/how-to-see-antarctica-from-the-air.html
I am pretty sure the skeletons of the past will haunt Air New Zealand for the rest of its history such that it will never dare to fly to Antarctica again.

[Waltzing]

not even scenic trips to white island are on yet....

the loan is tantamount to a life raft being launched from the desk of a coast guard cutter ...

now a plan is required and the with election here nothing is going to happen.. the loan is the solution for now.

[iceman]

Would Air ever consider resuming Antarctic flights? Would there even be a market for that?

I have thought about that and wondered why AIR does not try it, now that we have all Kiwis travelling domestically. I think AIR is failing, not giving this a go https://antarcticaflights.com.au/

[Beagle]

I have thought about that and wondered why AIR does not try it, now that we have all Kiwis travelling domestically. I think AIR is failing, not giving this a go https://antarcticaflights.com.au/

Maybe you weren't here on the fateful day and remember what happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Erebus_disaster
What Kiwi of a certain age can forget Justice Mahon's haunting words regarding the Mt Erebus investigation "an orchestrated litany of lies"
Deeply ingrained suspicions remain embedded within the fabric on N.Z. society that that AIR has blood on its hands.
Excerpt - Privy Council findings :- Regarding the issue of Air New Zealand stating a minimum altitude of 6,000 feet for pilots in the vicinity of McMurdo Base, the Privy Council stated "Their Lordships accept unreservedly that ... the evidence given by several of the executive pilots at the inquiry was false. But, even though false ... it cannot have formed part of a predetermined plan of deception.

I think any attempt by AIR to restart flights to Antarctica would be met with quite considerable resistance and I doubt the Govt would allow such an insensitive proposal to proceed.

[Waltzing]

" fly me to the moon"

can you imagine any member of parliament.... wait is there anyone there bar winston who can remember that far back?

thats a dead rat..

no one in marketing in there right mind would even bring it up even if they were not born then..

Its never going to happen.

Ill run it past my agent next week just for laugh or rather i think it will be met with a blank stare.

[iceman]

Maybe you weren't here on the fateful day and remember what happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Erebus_disaster
What Kiwi of a certain age can forget Justice Mahon's haunting words regarding the Mt Erebus investigation "an orchestrated litany of lies"
Deeply ingrained suspicions remain embedded within the fabric on N.Z. society that that AIR has blood on its hands.
Excerpt - Privy Council findings :- Regarding the issue of Air New Zealand stating a minimum altitude of 6,000 feet for pilots in the vicinity of McMurdo Base, the Privy Council stated "Their Lordships accept unreservedly that ... the evidence given by several of the executive pilots at the inquiry was false. But, even though false ... it cannot have formed part of a predetermined plan of deception.

I think any attempt by AIR to restart flights to Antarctica would be met with quite considerable resistance and I doubt the Govt would allow such an insensitive proposal to proceed.

You're right I wasn't here then but am surprised that you think this sad accident would stop scenic flights to Antarctica in 2020 - 2021. Better to leave it to Qantas ? Tens of thousands of Kiwis and Aussies take cruises down to Antarctica annually which they can not do at present. Some of them may well be interested in scenic flights.

[winner69]

There’s a guy who chartered a Dreamliner last year and went south to do some aurora watching ....so far south they were probably over the Antartica anyway

Maybe it will take some enterprising privateer to organise Antartica flights to get AIR interested

[Heimand]

Maybe you weren't here on the fateful day and remember what happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Erebus_disaster
What Kiwi of a certain age can forget Justice Mahon's haunting words regarding the Mt Erebus investigation "an orchestrated litany of lies"
Deeply ingrained suspicions remain embedded within the fabric on N.Z. society that that AIR has blood on its hands.
Excerpt - Privy Council findings :- Regarding the issue of Air New Zealand stating a minimum altitude of 6,000 feet for pilots in the vicinity of McMurdo Base, the Privy Council stated "Their Lordships accept unreservedly that ... the evidence given by several of the executive pilots at the inquiry was false. But, even though false ... it cannot have formed part of a predetermined plan of deception.

I think any attempt by AIR to restart flights to Antarctica would be met with quite considerable resistance and I doubt the Govt would allow such an insensitive proposal to proceed.

It happened 41 years ago! Now, without any cruise going there, there is a good opportunity that I think AIR should step in.

[macduffy]

I'm with Beagle on this one. There's still many of us around who find it difficult to accept AIR's failings in this tragic episode. Any move to "resume" scenic flights to Antarctica would be very badly received by the NZ public, IMO, despite the passage of 41 years.

[Beagle]

You're right I wasn't here then but am surprised that you think this sad accident would stop scenic flights to Antarctica in 2020 - 2021. Better to leave it to Qantas ? Tens of thousands of Kiwis and Aussies take cruises down to Antarctica annually which they can not do at present. Some of them may well be interested in scenic flights.

I remember the day like it was yesterday. I was sitting in my first car listening in on the radio and the sad news was announced that the flight was so late in returning that even on the engines most economical setting it was not possible that the DC10 was still flying and that it must have crashed. The fiasco of what followed over the months and years ahead was of cataclysmic proportions and makes AIR's recent mishandling of the refund issue look like a storm in a very small teacup. As I said earlier today, very deep suspicions remain that AIR as a company tried to cover this up and blame the pilots through a carefully contrived orchestrated litany of lies. Where there's smoke there's fire and I believe AIR as a company at the very least has a high degree of culpability for what happened.

I think starting flights to Antarctica again would be deeply disrespectful to all those people and their decedents who were so profoundly affected by this tragedy.
Its not the only aircraft they have lost either https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/air-nz-a320-crashes-france Maybe if you were here in N.Z. at the time you would understand my perspective.

By contrast Qantas in its near 100 year history, (they will be 100 years old on 16/11/2020), have never lost an aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Qantas so yeah...best to leave these difficult navigational journeys to companies that know what they're doing.

Maybe if AIR can string 50 years of crash free flying together (assuming they exist that long into the future), they would have earned the right to wash their hands of the blood of their chequered past ? Until then I reckon scenic flights to Antarctica is a no go zone for AIR.

[iceman]

There’s a guy who chartered a Dreamliner last year and went south to do some aurora watching ....so far south they were probably over the Antartica anyway

Maybe it will take some enterprising privateer to organise Antartica flights to get AIR interested

My cousin sent me the attached image taken in my childhood town yesterday :-)11942

[winner69]

My cousin sent me the attached image taken in my childhood town yesterday :-)11942

That’s one cool aurora mate ..very dramatic

[dobby41]

Now, without any cruise going there, there is a good opportunity that I think AIR should step in.

With a cruise you step foot on Antarctica - flying over is not the same.

Years ago I flew down (in a Herc) and stepped foot on - a very 'cool' place in more ways than one.

[Jay]

Slightly off topic - but a flight over it would be better than over time 1000's stepping on it and may be slowly destroying some of its beauty - let the scientists be the only ones down there IMHO

I too remember watching it on the news and them saying well it would have run out of fuel by now even in the best case scenario

[peat]

I'm with Beagle on this one. There's still many of us around who find it difficult to accept AIR's failings in this tragic episode. Any move to "resume" scenic flights to Antarctica would be very badly received by the NZ public, IMO, despite the passage of 41 years.

agreed - if you werent alive at the time you have no idea how much it impacted kiwis, firstly the tragedy - Nearly everyone knew someone on that plane - and then the long drawn out murky mysterious way to uncovering what happened

But of course as us oldies die away someone may have the snow blindness to retry it. Frankly I cant see why anyone would want to fly over such a large monotonous land mass covered in white stuff. I can understand people wanting to actually land of course for a sense of being there , thats quite different imo.

PS My neighbour told me today he bought a couple of thousand AIR shares. :( He was doing so well with his Fortescue mining too.

[Waltzing]

"The fiasco of what followed over the months and years ahead was of cataclysmic proportions and makes AIR's recent mishandling of the refund issue look like a storm in a very small teacup."

you had to live through it to believe it. it was as if AIR NZ simple could not accept the plane wasnt coming back. They acted as if it was a nightmare... that they were still asleep and any moment they were going to wake up and the plane land.

You really had to live it to understand. MR B has it dead on... sorry terrible pun.

Q Air has to do it first.

[Blue Skies]

Think there's some assumptions being made here. Not all of us who were in our early 20's when the Erebus tragedy happened & remember it well & knew people involved, think it would be disrespectful to those lost their lives by a resumption of flights in an appropriate & respectfully handled way. Not talking about a champagne & canapés style flight. But not only would many family and relatives & descendants of those killed jump at the chance to see Antartica, but NZ has a long & deep connection to this vast beautiful wild continent & early polar exploration, & currently there are virtually no opportunities for any other than a very select few scientists ( & guests of MP's) to experience it, other than via tourist operations out of Australia & South America.
Maybe after 41 years it is still too soon & off the table for now, but the Air NZ of today is hardly the same AIR of 40 years ago & at some point maybe 50,60 or 100 years after Erebus, surely enough time will have passed to allow resumption of flights as said with an appropriate respectful tone.
Acknowledge also there are people who still find it too raw & a few years ago when AIR developed a Safety video featuring NZ research connections to Antartica, there was a great deal of angst about it from a few of the family members.
Just to finish with this thought, are flights over this vast continent on AIR blocked off forever due to this tragedy?

[peat]

NZ has a long & deep connection to this vast beautiful wild continent & early polar exploration, & currently there are virtually no opportunities for any other than a very select few scientists ( & guests of MP's) to experience it, other than via tourist operations out of Australia & South America.
Not sure this is completely true to be honest with boat expeditions available to the subantarctics (which is surely much more interesting) and beyond I believe for example
https://www.heritage-expeditions.com/destinations/antarctica-travel/#trips

11946

[Marilyn Munroe]

Justice Mahon's Royal Commission report on the Erebus disaster is a compelling read.

The whole report not just the "orchestrated litany of lies" part is an indicment of the powers that be of the time, which is why they were so hostile to it.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[dobby41]

Justice Mahon's Royal Commission report on the Erebus disaster is a compelling read.

The whole report not just the "orchestrated litany of lies" part is an indicment of the powers that be of the time, which is why they were so hostile to it.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I'm not sure what these little bits of history have to do with AIR and their viability now?

[peat]

I'm not sure what these little bits of history have to do with AIR and their viability now?
the thread is currently examining the possibility that AIR commence a new route to the Antarticas which would of course increase revenue - hence enough on topic that folks shouldn't complain about it

(ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WHOLESALE THREAD MASHING THATS BEEN GOING ON FOR MONTHS WHERE NOBODY REALLY CARES WHERE THEY POST )

[Blue Skies]

Not sure this is completely true to be honest with boat expeditions available to the subantarctics (which is surely much more interesting) and beyond I believe for example
https://www.heritage-expeditions.com/destinations/antarctica-travel/#trips

11946



Sorry, you're quite right, had overlooked that option.
Not sure i'ld want to take that long rough Southern Ocean crossing on myself now, would need to be pretty determined. From Ushuaia in S America its much closer & more accessible for us older types or of course the flights from Australia & S.America. There certainly is a significant market for it & I believe it is an extraordinary experience, incredibly beautiful, nothing like it anywhere else in the world.

[peat]

Sorry, you're quite right, had overlooked that option.
Not sure i'ld want to take that long rough Southern Ocean crossing on myself now, would need to be pretty determined. From Ushuaia in S America its much closer & more accessible for us older types or of course the flights from Australia & S.America. There certainly is a significant market for it & I believe it is an extraordinary experience, incredibly beautiful, nothing like it anywhere else in the world.

Obviously the reason I know about it is that I dream of doing it or something similar - as stated I think the subantarctic islands would be awesome even just to see , let alone land on. And for me personally the sea journey would be one of the best bits and I'd secretly hope for a bit of a rough patch lol

BUT this is off topic (shock horror who cares)

What I would be interested in comment on is how could possibly Shareclarity arrive at their DCF valuation of $1.95 because I dont really believe that Sharesies is the cause of this supposedly stratospheric share price.

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/australia/300110443/flight-to-nowhere-probably-the-fastestselling-in-qantas-history

looks like the ozzies got in first!

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/australia/300110443/flight-to-nowhere-probably-the-fastestselling-in-qantas-history

looks like the ozzies got in first!

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200914_13/

[Crypto Crude]

A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol

[winner69]

A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol

Some people just have to fly ...anywhere

Cheaper than AKL to Hokitika return ;)

[Waltzing]

Yes i wonder what MR B thinks about this ?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300109838/air-new-zealand-needs-more-than-a-capital-restructure-to-solve-its-problems

[Jaa]

Yes i wonder what MR B thinks about this ?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300109838/air-new-zealand-needs-more-than-a-capital-restructure-to-solve-its-problems

I like MOD but its obvious he knows nothing about operating an airline. Normal whinging about prices and service you often read from wealthy, entitled people. Nor is his talk of the loan package accurate or responsible. There has been no official announcement from Air NZ or the government that they have started to draw down on it yet alone are sucking $70m for it.

There is nothing wrong with Air NZ's capital or operating model, its flexible and been proven to work for all parties. Its efficiently run and the government can increase its stake in bad times and can sell down in good times. Shareholders earned very good dividends for close to two decades. The airline can survive as a mostly cargo and domestic operation until better times return so even the capital is worth a bit as evidenced by the current share price.

Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.

[Waltzing]

Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

Black hole just got bigger ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12366432

[dobby41]

A $800 a seat Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in 10minutes today...
Incredibly smart or incredibly stupid? Lol

7 hrs of fuel burn for no gain.
Bring on more global warming.

[blackcap]

Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

Black hole just got bigger ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12366432

AIR will always be a going concern because pretty much the GOVT will give it enough of our money to survive ad infinitum. So no need for auditors to even go there.

[McPussPuss]

7 hrs of fuel burn for no gain.
Bring on more global warming.

The aircraft need to either be flown or stored somewhere bone dry otherwise they become expensive jungle gyms quite quickly.

[winner69]

Anyone got a detailed model of AIR as a going concern at the moment. I dont have one and therefore wont be even be thinking of trading a black hole.

It wonderful to write a warm and fuzzy summary but based on what detailed data please.


The current share price tells us nothing because i doubt any of the current investor buying and selling daily have a detailed model.

I wont comment on the article because i do not have access to a detailed model.

Black hole just got bigger ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12366432

New world these days ...financial models mean squat all ...it’s the power of the story that drives value these days

[Beagle]

AIR will always be a going concern because pretty much the GOVT will give it enough of our money to survive ad infinitum. So no need for auditors to even go there.

I took the time to read the auditors report on the weekend. They did go into considerable commentary about the issue of going concern and appear to have spent considerable time going over AIR's forecast under a number of different forecasting scenario's.

Obviously they had to make a judgement on the matter without considering the Govt's need to maintain critical transport infrastructure.
Interestingly there's a new standard around the whole going concern matter https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364940

What I find interesting is the market obviously thinks you're bang on the money because AIR have a small bond issue and they're currently bid on the secondary market at 3.5% with no sellers and yet AIR are paying the Govt 7-9% on the new Govt loan facility.

[winner69]

I’d rather do this than a flight to nowhere

More of a thrill

https://www.pacifictrailways.co.nz/shop/DC3+Air+Tours/wings-wine-whales/x_sku/01436.html

[Beagle]

I’d rather do this than a flight to nowhere

More of a thrill

https://www.pacifictrailways.co.nz/shop/DC3+Air+Tours/wings-wine-whales/x_sku/01436.html

Looks awesome :t_up:

[peat]

Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.

Fortran hahah, wasnt that some sort of computer programme in the 60's or even earlier !! Haha shows where MOD's head at.

He's just self promoting with this article. I dont think AIR havent thought of upselling possibilities ....
And he is worried for the Mums and Dad out of pocket with the shares.... lol

[BlackPeter]

New world these days ...financial models mean squat all ...it’s the power of the story that drives value these days

As we all know: share price = value + hype.

Not quite sure whether any story can drive the value, however - it clearly will impact on the hype.

Probably more correct to say that the story can drive the share price (by determining the hype).

[biker]

I like MOD but its obvious he knows nothing about operating an airline. Normal whinging about prices and service you often read from wealthy, entitled people. Nor is his talk of the loan package accurate or responsible. There has been no official announcement from Air NZ or the government that they have started to draw down on it yet alone are sucking $70m for it.

There is nothing wrong with Air NZ's capital or operating model, its flexible and been proven to work for all parties. Its efficiently run and the government can increase its stake in bad times and can sell down in good times. Shareholders earned very good dividends for close to two decades. The airline can survive as a mostly cargo and domestic operation until better times return so even the capital is worth a bit as evidenced by the current share price.

Sheesh MOD didn't even get the CEO's name right.

Air have started to draw down on the loan. They don’t have to officially announce when. It is reasonably common knowledge.

[winner69]

Coronavirus latest: Long-haul flights riskier than thought, says CDC paper

https://www.ft.com/content/b159b59a-30c6-3ce1-914f-cf35980cc55d

[winner69]

As we all know: share price = value + hype.

Not quite sure whether any story can drive the value, however - it clearly will impact on the hype.

Probably more correct to say that the story can drive the share price (by determining the hype).

Surely you need to know the story to drive/evaluate value ....and then you add hype.

Oceania is a great point in case eh ...pity story not understood

[dobby41]

The aircraft need to either be flown or stored somewhere bone dry otherwise they become expensive jungle gyms quite quickly.

Alice Springs store a few.
I don't think there is a requirement for a 7 hr flight though - usually they take them up so the pilots can keep rated.

[Cyclical]

I used to be into model planes as a kid. Nothing that flash but I feel that guys pain.
Potender for shareholders pain in the near future ?

Speaking of aircraft models...crikey they have come a long way from the basic balsa wood ones I used to fly ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmELxw-ORQA&feature=emb_rel_end

My story goes something like this, hard-working and saving kid who ploughed all his hard-earned dough into the sharemarket. Lost most of it in the 87 crash. Got the bug for radio controlled planes, crashed all that money into the ground (much like the stock market). Then got into motorbikes followed closely by cars...fortunately not crashed too many of either. Only in recent years have i got back into saving/investing properly. If only I'd stuck to the stocks and didn't have that model planes / bikes / cars / bit in the middle, I'd be a wealthy man!

[Beagle]

My story goes something like this, hard-working and saving kid who ploughed all his hard-earned dough into the sharemarket. Lost most of it in the 87 crash. Got the bug for radio controlled planes, crashed all that money into the ground (much like the stock market). Then got into motorbikes followed closely by cars...fortunately not crashed too many of either. Only in recent years have i got back into saving/investing properly. If only I'd stuck to the stocks and didn't have that model planes / bikes / cars / bit in the middle, I'd be a wealthy man!

Got to say that Airbus A400 model is absolutely incredible but 6 years to build it :eek2:
Plan for tomorrow but enjoy each day as it comes, I reckon. A bloke needs at least one good hobby :)

[Jaa]

Air have started to draw down on the loan. They don’t have to officially announce when. It is reasonably common knowledge.

Thanks for this biker, I checked and you are correct. They started to draw down the loan in early September.

[Waltzing]

"New world these days ...financial models mean squat all "

they call it the fool at the table.

No ref to winner (n).

I am very grateful for the many who are not doing models. We wont trade a black holes but the many are welcome too.

[Beagle]

You don't need a model to understand that the company at its stated mid point of cash burn ($75m a month) and already drawing down on the Govt loan of $900m has about 12 months ($12 x $75m = $900m) of fuel in the tank and then it'll crash. I doubt they will let the fuel tank run too close to empty so a major capital raise is coming some time in the next 12 months, probably well before the 12 months is up.

I expect a tsunami of positive press releases about how domestic is recovering well and freight e.t.c. and whatever other positive spin the company can come up with to make things look as good as possible leading up to the capital raise, (probably before late February 2021 so investors won't realise how much money they're losing at present).

The important thing to focus on however is they cannot make money until they can undertake widespread international passenger services and there is the demand for them so the question is when will a safe and effective vaccine be widely available on a global basis ? Until that time they will burn a LOT of cash every month in my opinion.

[winner69]

You don't need a model to understand that the company at its stated mid point of cash burn ($75m a month) and already drawing down on the Govt loan of $900m has about 12 months ($12 x $75m = $900m) of fuel in the tank and then it'll crash. I doubt they will let the fuel tank run too close to empty so a major capital raise is coming some time in the next 12 months, probably well before the 12 months is up.

Great post beagle ...proof that it really is the story drives / evaluates value

Without a story any numbers in a spreadsheet / model are meaningless

[Heimand]

Thanks for your views guys (Beagle & winner69). Do you hold any AIR shares? From your posts, looks like you don't have any and don't like to enter until everyone in the planet received vaccine.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for your views guys (Beagle & winner69). Do you hold any AIR shares? From your posts, looks like you don't have any and don't like to enter until everyone in the planet received vaccine.

Well, from my perspective there would not be the need to wait until everybody received a vaccine (because this won't happen anyway). It would be absolutely sufficient if AIR would have a secured (i.e. funded) plan to survive the ongoing baisse - and obviously if the market cap is a realistic representation of the money the company will be able to make over the next decade or so.

At this stage their survival is in my view dependant on a significant capital raise (i.e. terrible dilution of existing S/H) within the next 6 months or so and the future earning potential of the Airline is unclear, making it difficult to put a value on it.

When will they be back to pre-Covid business - in three years? in five years? never?
How will their future revenues look in a populist landscape (my country first ... no need to travel to foreign shores)?
How will their future revenues look in times of climate change and flight shame?
How will their margins look in times where used planes are cheap as chips and desperate (redundant) pilots prepared to fly for a handful of peanuts?

If & when you have answers to above questions and the numbers stack up, then it is a great time to invest into AIR ...


BTW - yesterday in the German news ... Lufthansa plans more pilot redundancies for 2021 but their financial bleeding continues. Sounds familiar?

[Hoop]

Thanks for your views guys (Beagle & winner69). Do you hold any AIR shares? From your posts, looks like you don't have any and don't like to enter until everyone in the planet received vaccine.
Air NZ like all cyclical stocks are greatly affected by economic change both up or down so for the investor they can be your best friend or your worst nightmare..A question Heimand..why would you spend lots of money just to experience a really bad nightmare..eh?

Also something else which may or may not be relevant this time around, recessions in the past have occurred when people were very healthy.. recessions result when financial or asset systemic stresses become apparent after an "end-game" trigger event has occurred...Long before Covid many "experts" predicted the "end-game" was due or overdue but had been delayed due to monetary and Fiscal policy manipulation..and like a broken record they maintained that sooner or later "the chickens would come home to roost"
So...its possible these Covid destructive events may only be the catalyst which will eventually put stress on the underlying Global or National financial system's weaknesses causing them to reach breaking-point.

I've just mentioned one scenario... obviously there are many other outcome scenarios which could play out both positively or negatively...It all depends on how the "brains trust" tackle the present and near future problems...There are a lot of variables in play...but as Beagles great post :t_up: points out it is very easy to see AIR is not in a very good space at the moment and its near future isn't looking that much better either.... Cyclical stocks have a grow/shrink growth cycle they can shrink very fast during bad times but need time to regrow and history shows the economic early recovery phase is not a great time for cyclical company's share prices (e.g AIR during the long post GFC economic recovery stage [2010-2012])...Vaccine or no vaccine it bums on seats that counts and when the effects of the recession start to bite many of the bums may feel healthier but a lot poorer and postpone their travel plans...again lots of variables in play creating many alternate scenario's..

One big positive is..if these cyclical stocks (AIR being one) manage to survive and bottom out during the late recession/early recovery phase, the economic late recovery phase they became excellent stocks for the investors with "steel balls" to "back up the truck" and buy into...

But this is not yet the time...too early..the world is in the recession phase and the recessionary effects are yet to be felt by the consumer...those effects arrive during late recession/early recovery phase
My opinion only...DYOR.

[Marilyn Munroe]

ABC Australia headline;

"Airlines could shed 95 per cent of their workforce......"

I expect a similar decimation of airline jobs this side of the ditch.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-22/airlines-could-shed-95-per-cent-of-workforce-due-to-covid19/12687052?section=business

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

...Cyclical stocks have a grow/shrink growth cycle they can shrink very fast during bad times but need time to regrow and history shows the economic early recovery phase is not a great time for cyclical company's share prices (e.g AIR during the long post GFC economic recovery stage [2010-2012])...Vaccine or no vaccine it bums on seats that counts and when the effects of the recession start to bite many of the bums may feel healthier but a lot poorer and postpone their travel plans...again lots of variables in play creating many alternate scenario's..

One big positive is..if these cyclical stocks (AIR being one) manage to survive and bottom out during the late recession/early recovery phase, the economic late recovery phase they became excellent stocks for the investors with "steel balls" to "back up the truck" and buy into...


Great post Hoop and thank you for that very salient reminder. As you astutely remind us the post GFC recovery phase for AIR was excruciatingly slow and this is very likely to repeat when a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. Timing regarding backing up the truck is extremely important with cyclical's.

Something I think all intelligent people knew already. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122861343/coronavirus-three-new-covid19-cases-cluster-of-six-historical-cases-discovered Despite all the public relations talk of assurances that flying is safe due to hospital grade air filtration, that's of absolutely no help whatsoever if someone seated close to you on the plane has Covid.

[Beagle]

Good move, there has been no documented spread of COVID onboard an aircraft in NZ and very few around the world.

One thing we have learnt in this pandemic is ventilation and length of exposure are key factors, airplanes completely cycle the air in the cabin every 4 mins. The masks and phased boarding/deplaning offer added layers of protection.

Unfair for the airlines to always bare the financial cost for everyone. As RTM says if you are still not convinced, buy two seats.

There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
"Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12367569

One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either. :eek2:

[winner69]

There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
"Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12367569

One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either. :eek2:

Bit of a worry eh beagle

And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country

Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?

[Beagle]

Bit of a worry eh beagle

And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country

Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?

I imagine he would be suffering from very severe anxiety. Was actually thinking of driving down to Taupo...thought if I took my car it would be a nice safe place for a little mini break. Hmmm.

Anyway it appears the charm offensive has commenced. I'm expecting many press releases about how well they're coping during Covid before the capital raise
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12367425

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122878427/air-nz-sponsorship-of-all-blacks-up-in-the-air-as-fiveyear-deal-draws-to-a-close?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+25+S eptember+2020

Oh my goodness...the world is ending if the relationship between the All Blacks and AIR breaks down...whatever are we to do ?

[Waltzing]

AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.

[Beagle]

AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.

They know it must be done by June 2021 as the loan will be almost exhausted by then and the auditors will not be able to sign off FY21's books as a going concern if there's no capital raise.

[Jaa]

Much no doubt to your disappointment Beagle, seems Air NZ is in no hurry to raise capital. Longer they leave it, the more certainty for all concerned.

Of the $75m a month cash burn roughly only a third is operational with a third capital expenditure and another third various one off restructuring costs (fuel hedges, FX hedges, redundancies etc). The third part will naturally reduce over time and I am sure they will find ways to reduce the other two components too.

[Beagle]

They better hurry before it becomes obvious that on top of the cash burn is another ~ $60m a month in depreciation as well as a prospect of another few hundred million to be written down on the 777-300's. Better conceal that till next year books after the capital raise eh Jaa ;)

Good they announced their intentions clearly so that you and your sharsies mates can save your pennies up for the issue and can't say you were ambushed. Save up hard mate, I am sure it will be an "outstanding" investment opportunity :p

[Jaa]

They better hurry before it becomes obvious that on top of the cash burn is another ~ $60m a month in depreciation as well as a prospect of another few hundred million to be written down on the 777-300's. Better conceal that till next year books after the capital raise eh Jaa ;)

Good they announced their intentions clearly so that you and your sharsies mates can save your pennies up for the issue and can't say you were ambushed. Save up hard mate, I am sure it will be an "outstanding" investment opportunity :p

Back to depreciation sigh... it doesn't affect cash burn or when capital needs to be raised as its a backward looking measure. Share markets and investors/lenders are forward thinking. By February we could all be talking about who should get vaccinated first. Optionality and time are always valuable.

To your other point, what's wrong with increasing participation in the capital markets via Sharies, KiwiSaver or anywhere else? Great for capitalism, the markets and ultimately liberal democracies. The more people who have a solid stake in society the stronger that society will be. Stronger society is, the more resistant it is to external shocks like say a pandemic.

Oh and a quick look at our join dates shows I joined Sharetrader 2 years before you :p :D :t_up:

[Beagle]

Back to depreciation sigh... it doesn't affect cash burn or when capital needs to be raised as its a backward looking measure.
Its going to add vast quantities of red ink to the losses they make and will burn away at the capital adequacy of the company. If all equity is expunged this year they have to raise capital as they're insolvent...which is exactly what they will be if they don't.


Share markets and investors/lenders are forward thinking. Yes they are but nobody has any visibility about when widespread international passenger service flights can recommence or when there will be demand for same but many are predicting it won't be for several years so when they raise capital in early 2021 is that enough to see them through this crisis ? How long is a piece of string ?


By February we could all be talking about who should get vaccinated first I think you've been listening to Donald Trumpet too much :p


Optionality and time are always valuable. Not when you're burning $75m a month with no clear visibility on when the cash burn will stop.


To your other point, what's wrong with increasing participation in the capital markets via Sharies, KiwiSaver or anywhere else? Great for capitalism, the markets and ultimately liberal democracies. The more people who have a solid stake in society the stronger that society will be. Stronger society is, the more resistant it is to external shocks like say a pandemic.

Nothing wrong with Sharsies...I was just winding you up...the fishing was good today :p


Oh and a quick look at our join dates shows I joined Sharetrader 2 years before you

Wow, 610 posts in 12 years, I am overcome with gratitude for the regularity of your extremely insightful contributions ;)

[Baa_Baa]

What some people seem to be missing is that AIR have failed before now, spectacularly failed which wiped out their retail investors.

AIR relies in these circumstances on their creditors. Their creditor of last resort is the government. The government won’t let the national airline fail but they don’t care about retail investors.

This is a race to the bottom, when all else fails and the government converts their debt investment to equity at eye watering multiples, wiping out retail holders.

History might not repeat exactly, but it does rhyme and precedent is in favour of a poor outcome for retail investors, except those who buy at $0.21 like last time.

A very dangerous share and company right now for small investors, better maybe to cash out and wait for the buy in for the next cycle.

History is your friend, ignore it with this cyclical at your peril,

[Stranger_Danger]

What some people seem to be missing is that AIR have failed before now, spectacularly failed which wiped out their retail investors.

AIR relies in these circumstances on their creditors. Their creditor of last resort is the government. The government won’t let the national airline fail but they don’t care about retail investors.



I would agree that the Government doesn't care about rich retail investors. But as the Sharesies revolution picks up ever larger numbers of "normal kiwis", in addition to "investor" we can attach another label to them. Voters. In increasingly large numbers.

I don't think an Ardern Government would want to be seen throwing a large number of normal kiwis to the wolves, at least, not before an election. I suspect that is why we've now had confirmation that the rights issue won't be till well after.

I get it, but it is very dangerous. If they delay it and a reliable vaccine pops up, they are geniuses. But I can think of a lot of other things that could happen in the next six months, many of them bad.

[nztx]

What some people seem to be missing is that AIR have failed before now, spectacularly failed which wiped out their retail investors.

AIR relies in these circumstances on their creditors. Their creditor of last resort is the government. The government won’t let the national airline fail but they don’t care about retail investors.

This is a race to the bottom, when all else fails and the government converts their debt investment to equity at eye watering multiples, wiping out retail holders.

History might not repeat exactly, but it does rhyme and precedent is in favour of a poor outcome for retail investors, except those who buy at $0.21 like last time.

A very dangerous share and company right now for small investors, better maybe to cash out and wait for the buy in for the next cycle.

History is your friend, ignore it with this cyclical at your peril,


Good points too

With such glowing domestic market prospects & an Airline attempting resizing itself down to the prevailing times
I dont see bright intermediate or medium term prospects for AIR on the horizon either - considering second Covid-19 waves
in Europe now & probably elsewhere are strongly likely

AIR is likely to be on Life Support for some time & now is chomping in the High Usary Govt Lifeline Loans right now

How long until effective Vaccine pops up ? how long is a piece of string could be an appropriate answer

The same answer applies to relaxed international travel -- obviously not on radar anytime soon

Haven't been a holder in this basketcase of Bubbles of Debt on wings for some time & wont be
in future either .. even if someone paid me to jump in ;)

[Waltzing]

"This is a race to the bottom, when all else fails and the government converts their debt investment to equity at eye watering multiples, wiping out retail holders."

.021 cents a share

WE LIVE IN HOPE!

FEAR THE MARKET PEOPLE. LIVE IN FEAR. ITS REAL.

[Raz]

Just been overseas to get some business squared off before the fall second wave really kicks in. It is an eye opener to see what a mess the western world is currently when you are on the ground. It would be a long time before many people would want to visit these countries for a holiday..regardless of the obvious barriers to travel which need to be resolve, seriously it's that bad.

[Waltzing]

we are still in the MR B camp on this one and for all those SH people who bought on that platform but dont own the base share i wonder just what they are thinking .....

Read the ACA's post last night as we were out dinning with the swed's at level 1 freedom and laughed.

They are very happy sweds to be here as residents, a country of immigrants it appears. The welsh man at the table who had live here for 30 years complimented the country also.

For us all All travel postponed back to europe until June 27th 2022.

Still NZ has an orchestra which is wonderful and therefore its not the 1820's. And Te Papa has come a long way....Well done NZ, hats off to you.

[Heimand]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/427033/winston-peters-optimistic-about-australian-travel-bubble

[Waltzing]

it will depend out they control there external borders. And just look at it raging round the world. Every few days a few new cases turn up in isolation. They are coming in as we speak every few days. Imaging how many will leak into australia. NZ got lucky as i sent a view to consultants for the military in wellington at the beginning that the roll out at the border was to slow. The view in wellington was that border control would not need a military support roll out. They change there minds a few months in. They said to me "Harden up" and i thought "Its the border you need to harden" but reframed from ranting some more...That what happens when your family are military and now consultants. They even did the consulting for the china film war scenes. As the virus started to go out of control they were champagning there success for the china film. They arent so confident now.

[Waltzing]

just chatting to my club mates in sweden as i missed the late summer seas coastal rowing races and i just checked dow futures..

and i have been thinking health checks are a must for the future of air travel and wondering if health checks would become a standard and low and behold...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/28/-health-certificates-may-be-the-new-visas-to-allow-travel-etihad.html

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12368786

Air New Zealand draws down more than $100m of Government loan

[Waltzing]

it would be interesting to get expense stats along with carrying stats, to see how they are going as a going concern.... nothing seems to move this share price at the moment...100 Mil.. to see how far it goes.

[Jaa]

Wow, 610 posts in 12 years, I am overcome with gratitude for the regularity of your extremely insightful contributions ;)

Forums like markets thrive with diverse participants. Most dogs don't feel the need to bark at every passing car you know :p

You remind of a general trying to fight the last war. COVID and its affects are now well known and the world is adapting and innovating so lots of potential for upside surprises. You see the news about the new WHO approved 15-30min tests that are about 97% accurate (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world) for example? Not hard to see how the test could be incorporated into the check-in process for international flights. Might be a bit strange but people adapted to taking shoes off to pass security.

[Waltzing]

"Given uncertainty around travel restrictions and future demand Air New Zealand was not able to provide specific 2021 earnings guidance. However, current modelling suggested it would make a loss in 2021, Walsh said."

very few people are going to start travelling back to europe for holidays next year.

It will be april next year before year see trans Tasman numbers start to come back. You can test all you want but its the virus you have to kill.

they have stated today its going to take a lot longer than they thought to get back to 70%.

If they get to that by 2022 april then the current share price might be what people are trading on.

The there is this problem; test all you like but this is another problem...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122923852/man-who-escaped-managed-isolation-by-creating-rope-out-of-bedsheets-gone-for-eight-hours

[stoploss]

Rather long but some good info in here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/29/inside-the-airline-industry-meltdown-coronavirus-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Waltzing]

damn good article thanks for that stoploss.

[Waltzing]

what the cap raise going to go for... they need? 500 Million? NO point going to the market for less?

[Sideshow Bob]

what the cap raise going to go for... they need? 500 Million? NO point going to the market for less?

Think likely more than that! Repay some of the govt loan, strengthen balance sheet, and then just depends how long & hard going to burn cash.....

[Beagle]

Forums like markets thrive with diverse participants. Most dogs don't feel the need to bark at every passing car you know :p
Dead right mate, if I did that I'd go "horse"...you see what I did there :)
Mostly interested in stocks that really will fly and the obvious train /plane wrecks.


what the cap raise going to go for... they need? 500 Million? NO point going to the market for less?

No mucking about mate, they need at least a billion to last them through the current FY21 year and most of the way through FY22 and maybe by then there might be a vaccine and they can slowly start to rebuild in FY23 or maybe not and they will need to raise even more money further down the track.

[Jaa]

No mucking about mate, they need at least a billion to last them through the current FY21 year and most of the way through FY22 and maybe by then there might be a vaccine and they can slowly start to rebuild in FY23 or maybe not and they will need to raise even more money further down the track.

I agree, a billion is my pick too. They have stated the need to keep liquidity above $700m so it won't be small. A 1:1 Rights issue at $1 with the government as underwriter would be my guess. A lot can change before Feb-Jun though!

One of the upside surprises that could happen is a Tasman or Pacific bubble. Aussies seem very keen to get going even if it is only one way! Considering the pressure their quarantine capacity is under and the disgraceful way they have abandoned their own citizens abroad, makes no sense to fill up the limited quarantine space with Kiwis, who are much less likely to be infected than the average ocker. Singapore and Japan are already doing this with Kiwi visitors, testing and letting them enter once negative.

TRANS-TASMAN BUBBLE TO LAUNCH ASAP, SAYS MINISTER (https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/09/trans-tasman-bubble-to-launch-asap-says-minister/)

[Waltzing]

No big influx of returning from overseas.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300121317/influx-of-returning-new-zealanders-due-to-covid19-a-myth-says-experts

[Zaphod]

Certainly from an IT industry perspective, we have not seen great hordes of highly qualified New Zealanders returning to scoop up relatively lowly paid positions at small companies. This may occur over the next few years (as the article notes) due to the COVID economic hit in Europe for example, or perhaps the implications of BREXIT, but we're not seeing it right now. I would posit that those who are returning, may leave again if things settle down on the international stage. NZ cannot provide the career opportunities or salaries available in larger, more connected countries.

[Snow Leopard]

Up In The Air by 7.2% :confused:

11987

Even my trusty software has flagged it as 'worthy of attention'. [ Bug report issued :laugh: ]

[Cadalac123]

Up In The Air by 7.2% :confused:

11987

Even my trusty software has flagged it as 'worthy of attention'. [ Bug report issued :laugh: ]

haha what software do you use ?

[Beagle]

Not sure why the shares would spike on Friday ? Maybe overseas investors simply saw the headline "Transtasman Bubble" and that moved the market ?
Maybe talk of another round of U.S Govt support for American carriers prompted overseas buying of AIR...but the NZ Govt's "support" for AIR is very different to other countries.
As for the new travel bubble...well that's very different to what some might have imagined too https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12370073
Hands up all those who would choose to go to Australia and are prepared to pay $4,000 on their return to spend 14 days in quarantine with their partner in a small hotel room in a hotel with lots of other people coming from different parts of the world that have been heavily impacted by Covid ? That's a "highly attractive" proposition isn't it :eek2:

Sometimes spending just one day in a large 300 sq meter house is a challenge with Mrs Beagle...hope she's not reading this lol

[percy]

Not sure why the shares would spike on Friday ? Maybe overseas investors simply saw the headline "Transtasman Bubble" and that moved the market ?
Maybe talk of another round of U.S Govt support for American carriers prompted overseas buying of AIR...but the NZ Govt's "support" for AIR is very different to other countries.
As for the new travel bubble...well that's very different to what some might have imagined too https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12370073
Hands up all those who would choose to go to Australia and are prepared to pay $4,000 on their return to spend 14 days in quarantine with their partner in a small hotel room in a hotel with lots of other people coming from different parts of the world that have been heavily impacted by Covid ? That's a "highly attractive" proposition isn't it :eek2:

Sometimes spending just one day in a large 300 sq meter house is a challenge with Mrs Beagle...hope she's not reading this lol

I will take plan "B'....lol.

[winner69]

One AIR Dreamliner heading down Antartica way next year

https://vivaexpeditions.com/tours/new-zealand/canterbury-upper-south-island/southern-lights-by-flight

[Heimand]

One AIR Dreamliner heading down Antartica way next year

https://vivaexpeditions.com/tours/new-zealand/canterbury-upper-south-island/southern-lights-by-flight

1195$ for 10 hours flight, everything included! Love this 🤩

[Jaa]

For a lot of people this change is very beneficial. Will be a bit of pent up demand with lots of families split up in the world at the moment. If your relative was unwell, even the option to head to Australia without quarantine is very comforting. As I noted above it also releases quarantine spaces for Australians to return home from other parts of the world. Will be lots of pressure on Queensland to follow suit.

One of the byproducts of having such competent and internationally trusted leadership under the Labour led coalition is NZ's enhanced access to the world. With the NZ passport now ranked the most powerful in the world (https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/kiwi-traveller/122980256/new-zealand-now-the-most-powerful-passport-in-the-world). We all owe our civil servants, healthcare workers and the government thanks.


In response, Air New Zealand says it's lifting its caps on several of its flights into Sydney, opening up more than 12,000 seats on flights into the city between now and January. - Air New Zealand opens up thousands of flights as partial trans-Tasman bubble announced (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/air-new-zealand-opens-up-thousands-flights-partial-trans-tasman-bubble-announced)

[Marilyn Munroe]

One of the byproducts of having such competent and internationally trusted leadership under the Labour led coalition....

She has wrought a miracle like St. Patrick casting the snakes out of Ireland.

You should write to the Pope suggesting he make Jacinda a saint.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Sideshow Bob]

CFO leaving after the planned capital raise.....


Air New Zealand updates on executive changes6/10/2020, 8:30 am ADMINAir New Zealand has appointed Leanne Geraghty to the newly created position of Chief Customer and Sales Officer.
Ms Geraghty is one of the airline's most experienced global leaders and will report directly to Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran.
"Leanne is an outstanding leader with a tremendous depth of industry knowledge having worked in the aviation and tourism industries on both sides of the Tasman for more than 30 years and led teams around the world. Her detailed knowledge of the New Zealand, Australian and Pacific Island markets in particular sets us up well for the post Covid-19 international tourism recovery when the time comes," Mr Foran says.
"Leanne is held in the highest regard by key stakeholders ranging from trade and Government partners through to our most valuable customers and her fellow Air New Zealanders. She cares deeply about the success of our airline and its ability to make a positive difference for our nation."
Ms Geraghty is currently Group General Manager Airports and has responsibility for more than 1,800 employees and operations across 50 airports internationally. Originally from Australia, she holds a Bachelor of Economics and Finance from the University of New South Wales and has studied International Business Management at IMD in Switzerland and Marketing at the Australian Institute of Marketing. She is also a graduate from the Company Directors course from the Australian Institute of Directors.
Meantime, Chief Financial Officer, Jeff McDowall, has confirmed that he intends to leave the airline toward the middle of 2021 after the completion of the planned capital raise.
“Jeff is playing a critical role in supporting myself and the Board as we rebuild from the ravages of Covid-19, but after a career spanning more than two decades with the airline, he feels it will be time to open a new chapter of his career once the capital raise is complete. We will shortly commence a global search for a successor and I would like to thank Jeff for giving us such a long line of sight of his career intentions. He has had an illustrious career at Air New Zealand, including as acting Chief Executive Officer pending me starting earlier this year. Without Jeff's leadership over the past two decades, especially as part of the Executive team in recent years, the airline would not have delivered its long run of commercial success or grown its international footprint around the world so successfully.”
This announcement is made pursuant to Listing Rule 3.20.1

[winner69]

Hey Bob ..that Leanne is some promotion. Sounds like she should have been promoted years ago.

[winner69]

Share price will be 2 bucks soon at this rate

Outlook getting brighter by the day?

[Sideshow Bob]

Share price will be 2 bucks soon at this rate

Outlook getting brighter by the day?

C'mon Winner - wrong forum! Were you thinking you were posting on Sharsies!! :p

[nztx]

C'mon Winner - wrong forum! Were you thinking you were posting on Sharsies!! :p

He must be thinking there's still a bit of flapping left in the carcass of the old girl

TBH .. she may be still worth a punt for the very brave

[bull....]

I have finally worked out in my head why the capital raising is taking so long , it must be because labour want air as part of any deal to sign up for the new generation of airplanes coming ... hydrogen fuel cell environmentally friendly airplanes.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (https://www.cnbc.com/sustainable-energy/)Airbus announces concept designs for zero-emission, hydrogen-powered airplanes
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/airbus-announces-concept-designs-for-hydrogen-powered-airplanes-.html


SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (https://www.cnbc.com/sustainable-energy/)Hydrogen-powered passenger plane completes maiden flight in ‘world first
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/hydrogen-powered-passenger-plane-completes-maiden-flight.html

[BlackPeter]

I have finally worked out in my head why the capital raising is taking so long , it must be because labour want air as part of any deal to sign up for the new generation of airplanes coming ... hydrogen fuel cell environmentally friendly airplanes.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (https://www.cnbc.com/sustainable-energy/)Airbus announces concept designs for zero-emission, hydrogen-powered airplanes
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/airbus-announces-concept-designs-for-hydrogen-powered-airplanes-.html


SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (https://www.cnbc.com/sustainable-energy/)Hydrogen-powered passenger plane completes maiden flight in ‘world first
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/hydrogen-powered-passenger-plane-completes-maiden-flight.html



Hydrogen power is a great concept ... and if I remember it correctly it is for at least the last 50 years only a decade away. Some things just don't change :):

[Jantar]

Hydrogen power is a great concept ... and if I remember it correctly it is for at least the last 50 years only a decade away. Some things just don't change :): Hydrogen has been at least a decade away for quite some time, but now they are predicting just a bit over 10 years away.

[Rep]

If the Trans-Tasman travel bubble is opened but we have 14-day quarantine mandatory on our side of the border, I have to ask where is the additional capacity for MIQ going to come from?

[Beagle]

If the Trans-Tasman travel bubble is opened but we have 14-day quarantine mandatory on our side of the border, I have to ask where is the additional capacity for MIQ going to come from?

Excellent question and something that should be front of mind for anyone looking to travel overseas. When can I come home and what if I get stuck in Australia ?

[dobby41]

If the Trans-Tasman travel bubble is opened but we have 14-day quarantine mandatory on our side of the border, I have to ask where is the additional capacity for MIQ going to come from?

It hasn't been said that there will be an increase - at the moment it is Aussies bubble and not brought into by the NZ Govt.
I do wonder if all the people buying tickets realise this.

[winner69]

Another sad set of operating stats from AIR

At least RASK on short haul up a lot - 31%. Fares up a bit maybe?

RASK is Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre

[Beagle]

Another sad set of operating stats from AIR

At least RASK on short haul up a lot - 31%. Fares up a bit maybe?

RASK is Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre

Wonder what the CASK is :eek2:

[winner69]

Wonder what the CASK is :eek2:

CASK be over flowing methinks

[winner69]

AIR employees being naughty

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-airport-meth-bust-air-new-zealand-baggage-handlers-charged/CQURK4ORNF2SHRER5FDVOITRII/

[Waltzing]

WHO says no more lock downs, and it could be a brave new world for travel, very brave in fact.

up up and away in your brave new world balloon.

well if no more lock downs world wide become the norm then maybe its up up and away for airlines..

just maybe not this ....

[Filthy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300130855/singapore-airlines-a380-restaurant-tickets-sell-out-in-30-minutes

[Waltzing]

looking forward to visting jewel in 2022... yes not sure why AIR doesnt let you wine and dine business class 787... just for a laugh.. you could even check in your new wheelie... mine is sitting waiting, brand new in late january.

[winner69]

Apparently AIR a pretty unhappy place under new CEO

Must affect business as airlines are all about people.

[Waltzing]

Winner they did suffer a few loses , he even cleaned the rest rooms. Who is unhappy i was wondering if you can enlighten us a little. Not planning on buying back in for a while ....if ever.

[nztx]

Can't believe the SP currently given what is looming ahead .. Are they dishing out free shares for frequent flyers
to keep the SP up so high ? ;)

[Beagle]

Apparently AIR a pretty unhappy place under new CEO

Must affect business as airlines are all about people.

Staff being expected to seriously tighten their belts (AKA Walmart as tight as a drum efficiency style), must be a MASSIVE culture shock compared to lets spend up big to supercharge growth and make bold statements about the environment under Chris Luxon. Doubt they'll be updating Chris Luxon's electric cars this year...wonder what the 3 year residual values on that EV fleet are now :eek2:...who cares, just ship them off to the desert with the other redundant plant, nobody will notice.

[Jaa]

Upbeat email from Greg today in reference to flying in Aotearoa:

"Throughout October, we will be back flying nearly 85 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels."

[BlackPeter]

Winner they did suffer a few loses , he even cleaned the rest rooms. Who is unhappy i was wondering if you can enlighten us a little. Not planning on buying back in for a while ....if ever.

Actually - after the next big CR with terrible dilution for existing share holders it might be a good time to start thinking about getting in again :):

[peat]

I have shorted at 1.53.5 in preparation for post election fireworks.

[Beagle]

Welcome to the dark side :D

[Blue Skies]

Wow, see Cam Wallace has jumped from AIR to CEO of Mediaworks. Talk about out of the frying pan into the fire! Or maybe the other way around, but whatever, that's a tough gig.

[winner69]

See our much revered Jayne ex A2 to head the new Virgin in Australia

Going to be more of ‘budget’ airline

Well done Jayne

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/not-a-virgin-bain-plays-everyone-in-breathtaking-corporate-bait-20201015-p565eq.html

[peat]

See our much revered Jayne ex A2 to head the new Virgin in Australia

Going to be more of ‘budget’ airline

Well done Jayne

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/not-a-virgin-bain-plays-everyone-in-breathtaking-corporate-bait-20201015-p565eq.html

I suspect she spends a lot of time pressing the flesh

[Marilyn Munroe]

The unions seem surprised the spreadsheet jockeys at Bain have done the dirty on them. Bain are about as likely to stick to their word as the signatories to the Hitler-Stalin pact.

Commenter Jazz in the SMH article has it nailed;

"Bain is a leveraged buyout outfit. They will take a well-established but floundering business, strip it down to the few obvious areas of profitability, max out on debt and then cash out on the share market."

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Jaa]

Been a spot of bother about not much with the dribble to Australia but nevertheless it is growing, with South Australia joining effective immediately.

[iceman]

This Disputes Tribunal decision is not good for AIR. It will be interesting to see if they appeal it. They probably will as this could seriously deplete their cash reserves https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-air-new-zealand-must-refund-passenger-for-cancelled-flights-disputes-tribunal/AVFXP7IJFGSJIJDE67ZZ5GL3J4/

[causecelebre]

Apparently AIR a pretty unhappy place under new CEO

Must affect business as airlines are all about people.

Not so much the CEO more that packages are padded with co performance bonuses and staff travel discounts. Base salaries well below market without bonuses and no one is flying OS. This is applies to all permanent employees not just management.

Makes it hard to attract new talent. Possible ladder climbing for those willing to stick it out - particularly those with a decent amount of IP. As investors we have to ask ourselves: are they the best people for the job or the only people ?

[Beagle]

This Disputes Tribunal decision is not good for AIR. It will be interesting to see if they appeal it. They probably will as this could seriously deplete their cash reserves https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-air-new-zealand-must-refund-passenger-for-cancelled-flights-disputes-tribunal/AVFXP7IJFGSJIJDE67ZZ5GL3J4/

I have always been of the opinion it is egregiously unfair and unreasonable that they can cancel your flights and keep your money. I accept with non refundable tickets if I cancel my flights they can keep my money.

Meanwhile in other news in the industry it seems many airlines are cancelling orders for new aircraft. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boeing-to-cut-30000-jobs-as-pandemic-throttles-air-travel/3GKIS2XU7ZQZDQSPBVTOQQYL4Q/

If I recall correctly from the recent conference call at AIR there are about 2,000 staff on incentive programs at AIR. The average salary is about $110,000 right across the airline. I think there's a whole bunch of people that have gotten far too used to the gravy train of endless bonus's and free travel. Time for the prince's and princesses of the travel industry to suck it up and be paid at a more realistic level.. My hearts bleeds for them, (NOT) !

[kyanar]

This Disputes Tribunal decision is not good for AIR. It will be interesting to see if they appeal it. They probably will as this could seriously deplete their cash reserves https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-air-new-zealand-must-refund-passenger-for-cancelled-flights-disputes-tribunal/AVFXP7IJFGSJIJDE67ZZ5GL3J4/

As noted in the article though, Disputes Tribunal decisions do not set precedent. There is no requirement for the courts or even another application to the Disputes Tribunal to rule in accordance with this decision.

[777]

If I recall correctly from the recent conference call at AIR there are about 2,000 staff on incentive programs at AIR. The average salary is about $110,000 right across the airline. I think there's a whole bunch of people that have gotten far too used to the gravy train of endless bonus's and free travel. Time for the prince's and princesses of the travel industry to suck it up and be paid at a more realistic level.. My hearts bleeds for them, (NOT) !

Another snarky post from you Roger. As an accountant you would/should have an idea on what an average means. There are a lot of people employed below this average of your memorised figure as well as a lot of skilled people above it. You get paid more than an unqualified clerk I am sure. $110.000 these days is not exactly high either. But stick it to AirNZ and it's staff as you continually want to do.

You were the reason I stopped monitoring this forum for some months. I am on my way again.

[Ggcc]

Another snarky post from you Roger. As an accountant you would/should have an idea on what an average means. There are a lot of people employed below this average of your memorised figure as well as a lot of skilled people above it. You get paid more than an unqualified clerk I am sure. $110.000 these days is not exactly high either. But stick it to AirNZ and it's staff as you continually want to do.

You were the reason I stopped monitoring this forum for some months. I am on my way again.

I love $110,000 is not exactly high for which job......... I have a friend who is a partner in an accountancy firm and they struggle to get qualified accountants for much less than $110,000. I guess that is where Beagle is coming from. A fully qualified accountant is currently being offered slightly over $70,000 per year and there is a massive shortage in them.

[couta1]

I love $110,000 is not exactly high for which job......... I have a friend who is a partner in an accountancy firm and they struggle to get qualified accountants for much less than $110,000. I guess that is where Beagle is coming from. A fully qualified accountant is currently being offered slightly over $70,000 per year and there is a massive shortage in them. And don't forget a village manager of a large retirement facility doesn't get 100k, some sectors seem to be grossly overpaid by comparison.

[dreamcatcher]

Can someone confirm Air Hostesses wages as I heard was around 49k