AIR - Air NZ.

[peat]

one good thing about having a short position mixed in amongst mostly longs is that when we get these types of weeks there is some part of your portfolio that benefits from the gloom and doom.

Thats why I like to have them (shorts) when it seems appropriate -
I think we discussed this sometime before with regard to exposure to the retirement sector whereby if you had , say short Ryman position, you could go extra hard on your long in say OCA because the sector risk is somewhat mitigated.

[Beagle]

Another snarky post from you Roger. As an accountant you would/should have an idea on what an average means. There are a lot of people employed below this average of your memorised figure as well as a lot of skilled people above it. You get paid more than an unqualified clerk I am sure. $110.000 these days is not exactly high either. But stick it to AirNZ and it's staff as you continually want to do.

You were the reason I stopped monitoring this forum for some months. I am on my way again.

AIR are keeping customers money for flights the company cancelled. Right there is a major and egregious breech of the principle's of natural justice. The thousands of people on incentive programs are not getting their bonus's because the airline is bleeding (including depreciation) over $1 Billion a year by my estimation.

A "little birdie" tells me the biggest accountancy firm in N.Z. is currently embarking on a massive restructure of unprecedented scale, (despite not putting their hand out for massive Govt assistance like some companies have).

We live in a whole new environment with Covid...people have to suck it up and accept it and cut their cloth to suit their means, that's just how it is.
I call it as I see it, always have and always will. Not everyone is going to like that or like me for that,, (plenty do), but that's also just how it is.
There's always the ignore button for those that don't like the barking, feel free to use it.

[Beagle]

one good thing about having a short position mixed in amongst mostly longs is that when we get these types of weeks there is some part of your portfolio that benefits from the gloom and doom.

Thats why I like to have them (shorts) when it seems appropriate -
I think we discussed this sometime before with regard to exposure to the retirement sector whereby if you had , say short Ryman position, you could go extra hard on your long in say OCA because the sector risk is somewhat mitigated.

I had to close out my short position the other day. The party that loaned me the shares came to their senses and wanted them back to sell. Disappointed as I have a feeling the fun for shorters is just starting.

[peat]

I had to close out my short position the other day. The party that loaned me the shares came to their senses and wanted them back to sell. Disappointed as I have a feeling the fun for shorters is just starting.

sucks
I think you were a bit harsh on CMC mate , they could have facilitated this for you. but yeh I dont want to get you started or anything... ;+) ,

[Beagle]

sucks
I think you were a bit harsh on CMC mate , they could have facilitated this for you. but yeh I dont want to get you started or anything... ;+) ,

Fun and profitable while it lasted, but alas only a very small short position. Was a private arrangement...would have been more fun with another zero in terms of the number of shares.

In news today https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/e-tu-union-blasts-air-new-zealand-for-axing-hundreds-more-cabin-crew-jobs/KXHSUFFLDKTCXLGPXVXGR4QLXY/

It would appear that 787 crew were going to strike "When Covid hit, 787 crew were looking at possible strike action after protracted negotiations had failed to address their poor rates of pay". Probably were going to claim pay relativity with the high rates of the earlier contracts.

[dreamcatcher]

Can someone confirm Air Hostesses wages as I heard was around 49k

Seems the average salary of $110,000 is well shy for Hostesses

"Pay. Pay for flight attendants varies depending on whether they work on domestic, trans-Tasman or international flights. Flight attendants usually earn between minimum wage and $45,000 a year. Inflight service managers can earn up to $60,000...............Sep 8, 2020"

[Raz]

Seems the average salary of $110,000 is well shy for Hostesses

"Pay. Pay for flight attendants varies depending on whether they work on domestic, trans-Tasman or international flights. Flight attendants usually earn between minimum wage and $45,000 a year. Inflight service managers can earn up to $60,000...............Sep 8, 2020"

Certainly golden handcuffs at AIR in the past for many roles were the perks, flight attendants and inflight service manager are often more attracted to the lifestyle than the income and a lot of living expenses were covered. Given Auckland is AIRs main base for other roles, 110k is hardly the living wage in Auckland is it?

Todays news...we love Savage..

“Further staff cuts made at Air New Zealand is an appalling situation given it is a vital part of New Zealand’s international trade routes and has received hundreds of millions of dollars of public money this year,” Savage said.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123235183/air-nz-redundancies-trust-between-cabin-crew-employees-and-airline-at-an-alltime-low-union-says

[Cyclical]

Beagle will have a field day with this one in the Herald...

"The reality is that it's clear to everyone that the defendant has been, and continues to, sell flights which it has no plan on operating at all (i.e. "ghost" flights) in order to raise cash and then stick unwary passengers with flight credit which expires after 12 months."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/united-states-based-kiwi-suing-air-new-zealand-over-flight-cancellation/XSH7GIZI447MXQNCUA2VRXWE74/

[Tomtom]

Wasn't it "most trusted brand" or similar in 2019? So much for that.

Australian media are reporting that the Trans-Tasman bubble will open before Christmas.

[Beagle]

The harsh reality is that there will be potentially hundreds of thousands of customers stuck with AIR's credits they either can't or don't want to use or can only partially use. A decent airline would allow some sort of trading system so that these credits could be transferred to anyone else (regardless of whether they are family or not), or remove the time limit on the credit altogether, (or for a minimum of 5 years) so at least people could use them as and when they felt completely safe and comfortable to travel.

As it is I predict hundreds of millions of dollars of credits will expire without ever being used and of course that beg's the obvious question if that wasn't their specific intention all along ?

The travelling public will have an elephants memory when it comes to the way they have been given the shaft. This will come back and bite AIR, mark my words.

It would seem we have third world standards when it comes to allowing AIR to pocket consumers money without any decent safeguards compared to the decent protection accorded in most parts of Europe, America and elsewhere. Its time the Govt enacted legislation to stop consumers being blatantly abused.
Will they be motivated to do this with them being the majority owner of AIR ? I doubt it.

[Waltzing]

The govt loan was a brilliant move at the time its the govt that hopes the public has a short memory and with the amount of money thrown at the electorate it bought it way of trouble down at little air show.

wonder what they will do for their next election trick as the master of spin seduces the adoring public.

[Dlownz]

The harsh reality is that there will be potentially hundreds of thousands of customers stuck with AIR's credits they either can't or don't want to use or can only partially use. A decent airline would allow some sort of trading system so that these credits could be transferred to anyone else (regardless of whether they are family or not), or remove the time limit on the credit altogether, (or for a minimum of 5 years) so at least people could use them as and when they felt completely safe and comfortable to travel.

As it is I predict hundreds of millions of dollars of credits will expire without ever being used and of course that beg's the obvious question if that wasn't their specific intention all along ?

The travelling public will have an elephants memory when it comes to the way they have been given the shaft. This will come back and bite AIR, mark my words.

It would seem we have third world standards when it comes to allowing AIR to pocket consumers money without any decent safeguards compared to the decent protection accorded in most parts of Europe, America and elsewhere. Its time the Govt enacted legislation to stop consumers being blatantly abused.
Will they be motivated to do this with them being the majority owner of AIR ? I doubt it.

They have a airpoints store. So if you can't fly you can still spend them. Or get a airpoints credit card so they don't expire. Lifes problems solved 😉

[Teatree]

Govt as majority shareholder could easy tell them to sort this out. They wouldn't even have to legislate. Our customer protection in nz is inferior to our peers overseas. I'm sure labour will sort it out tho mmmm

[Beagle]

They have a airpoints store. So if you can't fly you can still spend them. Or get a airpoints credit card so they don't expire. Lifes problems solved ��

Did I miss something, (quite possible, its been an extraordinary year), and those flight credits were converted to airpoints or are you trying to fly a kite that doesn't exist ?

[nztx]

Bubbles of Debt with Wings Need more Subsidy:

Government air freight funding needs to continue beyond border opening, airlines say

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123095974/government-air-freight-funding-needs-to-continue-beyond-border-opening-airlines-say

"Airlines have praised a Government decision to extend a subsidy scheme designed to keep air cargo moving, but say ongoing financial support will be needed beyond New Zealand’s borders reopening.

As part of the Government’s $600 million package to support the aviation industry through Covid-19, $320m was allocated towards an international air freight capacity scheme.

The scheme, launched in May and administered by the Ministry of Transport, provides financial support to carriers to guarantee flights on key international routes continue, allowing goods to continue moving in and out of the country.

With New Zealand’s borders closed and little passenger demand for air travel, cargo capacity (historically provided by passenger aircraft) has plummeted and freight rates have gone through the roof."

Everyone out there still happy with their soon to be hugely diluted little pieces of subsidised "Robertson Air" ? ;)

[peat]

Its sad to see a company begging.

Discl. neutral now.

[Blue Skies]

News that Gregg Foran has rejected a petition signed by 1287 AIR staff to stop outsourcing jobs, including cabin crew jobs to Chinese nationals based in Shanghai, just a week after making 350 AIR international cabin crew redundant and another 550 international cabin crew on furlough since July, is likely going to destroy any remaining staff goodwill, morale & pride in the airline.
Going to be hard, to put it lightly, delivering a customer centric culture when so many of the remaining staff resent the organisation now.
Airlines not like big retail chains.

[Baa_Baa]

1287 staff put a target on their backs. Reminds me of a cartoon where two dear, one with a target on it, the other said “bummer of a birthmark Hal“

[iceman]

News that Gregg Foran has rejected a petition signed by 1287 AIR staff to stop outsourcing jobs, including cabin crew jobs to Chinese nationals based in Shanghai, just a week after making 350 AIR international cabin crew redundant and another 550 international cabin crew on furlough since July, is likely going to destroy any remaining staff goodwill, morale & pride in the airline.
Going to be hard, to put it lightly, delivering a customer centric culture when so many of the remaining staff resent the organisation now.
Airlines not like big retail chains.

Does he really have any other options ? This is a business fighting for its survival.

[Sideshow Bob]

News that Gregg Foran has rejected a petition signed by 1287 AIR staff to stop outsourcing jobs, including cabin crew jobs to Chinese nationals based in Shanghai, just a week after making 350 AIR international cabin crew redundant and another 550 international cabin crew on furlough since July, is likely going to destroy any remaining staff goodwill, morale & pride in the airline.
Going to be hard, to put it lightly, delivering a customer centric culture when so many of the remaining staff resent the organisation now.
Airlines not like big retail chains.

Likely those cabin crew based in Shanghai are for their routings in/out of China, and how many of the proposed redundancies speak Chinese?

Given current Covid status, could see flights to/from China coming back before the US and other destinations.

[Jaa]

Likely those cabin crew based in Shanghai are for their routings in/out of China, and how many of the proposed redundancies speak Chinese?

Given current Covid status, could see flights to/from China coming back before the US and other destinations.

The cabin crew in China have been furloughed and are not even flying currently so yet another beat up about not much. Crew on the current Shanghai flights are all NZ based.

The problem with allowing visitors from China is one of trust. There is a huge social stigma to be diagnosed with COVID in China so lots of incentive to hide it both for individuals and the various layers of bureaucracy. So 14 days quarantine would still be required as China itself requires for visitors from NZ. Not that there is any room in MIQ facilities anyway.

Much more likely for NZ to allow Pacific and Australian visitors a shorter stay in quarantine with a test at day 2 and release on day 3 for home quarantine once negative. Taiwan and Hong Kong have shown how to do this with app based monitoring, regular temperature/health checks and a second test at home at day 10. Will increase the risk but should be manageable.

[Beagle]

Most people I know are still very concerned about the number of people in managed isolation and quarantine with Covid and whether 14 days is really long enough. The real concern is leaks at the border and if people are allowed to self isolate the risk will rise exponentially. The groundswell of opinion is the system needs to be further refined and further tightened up not loosened.

The culture of entitlement runs very deep at AIR. No wonder Greg Foran is ruffling feathers. He still has a truly massive task ahead to transform this business into one that will be internationally competitive going forward. Expect fireworks on the industrial relations front for quite some time.

[iceman]

Most people I know are still very concerned about the number of people in managed isolation and quarantine with Covid and whether 14 days is really long enough. The real concern is leaks at the border and if people are allowed to self isolate the risk will rise exponentially. The groundswell of opinion is the system needs to be further refined and further tightened up not loosened.

The culture of entitlement runs very deep at AIR. No wonder Greg Foran is ruffling feathers. He still has a truly massive task ahead to transform this business into one that will be internationally competitive going forward. Expect fireworks on the industrial relations front for quite some time.

There is no question 14 days is long enough. That is not the issue. Slack management of the isolation hotels and the borders is the issue. Don't confuse the two.

[BlackPeter]

Most people I know are still very concerned about the number of people in managed isolation and quarantine with Covid and whether 14 days is really long enough. The real concern is leaks at the border and if people are allowed to self isolate the risk will rise exponentially. The groundswell of opinion is the system needs to be further refined and further tightened up not loosened.


I wonder why this is. Taiwan has self isolation - supported by a mandatory cell phone app and police checking whether you stay at you chosen self isolation place. Numbers show the system works perfectly, they do have less cases than New Zealand and never needed a lock down.

Nobody there breaks the self isolation to buy booze or go on a shopping spree. Are Kiwis really such a lousy undisciplined bunch of morons that they need to be locked up to follow the rules? It appears that we all have to pay a high price for the lack of discipline and stupidity of a small number of idiots in our community.

We should be ashamed of ourselves and of the way at least some of us educated our children ... we do not need more border restrictions, we need to reintroduce some respect and discipline ...

[blackcap]

We should be ashamed of ourselves and of the way at least some of us educated our children ... we do not need more border restrictions, we need to reintroduce some respect and discipline ...

Totally agree with your last comment. Interestingly I had an Indian cab driver yesterday who also said the same thing. He though there was a lack of respect to elders when compared with India.

The question is, how do you reintroduce respect and discipline as part of a culture?

[Beagle]

I wonder why this is. Taiwan has self isolation - supported by a mandatory cell phone app and police checking whether you stay at you chosen self isolation place. Numbers show the system works perfectly, they do have less cases than New Zealand and never needed a lock down.

Nobody there breaks the self isolation to buy booze or go on a shopping spree. Are Kiwis really such a lousy undisciplined bunch of morons that they need to be locked up to follow the rules? It appears that we all have to pay a high price for the lack of discipline and stupidity of a small number of idiots in our community.

We should be ashamed of ourselves and of the way at least some of us educated our children ... we do not need more border restrictions, we need to reintroduce some respect and discipline ...

Off topic but I lay the blame squarely at the feet of Sue Bradford and her ilk with their anti smacking nonsense. Spare the rod and spoil the child.
Thanks to do gooders like her a whole generation have grown up with never feeling the pain of a decent caning on one's backside and think they can act in any way whatsoever they feel like or worse still do whatever their mates on fakebook, Instagram and other social media platforms dare them to do. They then crash headlong into a judicial system that bends over backwards not to imprison people. Really...people escaping from quarantine are risking 5,000,000 people's lives and the judicial system needs to take that threat extremely seriously not the nonsense we get at present...like oh you poor little thing, your mental health was stressed, let me smack you gently on the back of the hand with a wet bus ticket and wipe away your tears.
Where's my vomit bag, do AIR have any left ? End of frustrated rant.

[biker]

Off topic but I lay the blame squarely at the feet of Sue Bradford and her ilk with their anti smacking nonsense. Spare the rod and spoil the child.
Thanks to do gooders like her a whole generation have grown up with never feeling the pain of a decent caning on one's backside and think they can act in any way whatsoever they feel like or worse still do whatever their mates on fakebook, Instagram and other social media platforms dare them to do. They then crash headlong into a judicial system that bends over backwards not to imprison people. Really...people escaping from quarantine are risking 5,000,000 people's lives and the judicial system needs to take that threat extremely seriously not the nonsense we get at present...like oh you poor little thing, your mental health was stressed, let me smack you gently on the back of the hand with a wet bus ticket and wipe away your tears.
Where's my vomit bag, do AIR have any left ? End of frustrated rant.

Yawn. Stick to the topic. You’re less boring when you’re on point.

[winner69]

@phillipkirk6
Feeling a little sad as yet another Air New Zealand B777-200ER heads off from LAX to Roswell for possibly it’s last flight.

https://twitter.com/philipkirk6/status/1324457793798066177?s=21

Is this another writeoff for AIR

[Waltzing]

well i see the Ceo just got a big dump of shares today....

maybe every one in air line crew could also get a few issued in lew of employment.

dilution is coming anyway.... i hope they all got a huge layoff package ...and then AIR is forced into an early cap raise down to 50 cents... like a few billion shares issued.

[nztx]

well i see the Ceo just got a big dump of shares today....

maybe every one in air line crew could also get a few issued in lew of employment.

dilution is coming anyway.... i hope they all got a huge layoff package ...and then AIR is forced into an early cap raise down to 50 cents... like a few billion shares issued.

must be chipping into Robertson's High Usury Loan a fair bit now

think I'll continue watching the bubbles of debt sailing along on thermals .. from a safe distance
until indication of the size of the dilution scalpel becomes known .. ;)

[Gregnz]

well i see the Ceo just got a big dump of shares today....

maybe every one in air line crew could also get a few issued in lew of employment.

dilution is coming anyway.... i hope they all got a huge layoff package ...and then AIR is forced into an early cap raise down to 50 cents... like a few billion shares issued.

This is just so typical of Air NZ management. Laying off all their lowest paid employees, while taking a measly 10% pay cut from their $800k+ per year salaries and issuing themselves more shares in the company to offset any perceived salary sacrifice.

Happened under Luxon also, told all frontline employees there was no money for a bonus so paid them $100 each (before tax) as their annual bonus, then after the fact, its disclosed he left with a $2.4m golden handshake, after being paid an annual salary of $4m+ per year.

I'm not a share holder, would like to be, but while the current muppets are running the show, I wouldn't touch it with a 20ft barge pole.

[Waltzing]

i agree but i would go farther and call it a spirit of theft...i am a supporter of markets but not at the expense of all parties and this sort of practise has to be called for what it is.

[Ballr]

SP might see a bounce based on this piece of news.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-be-90-effective-in-great-day-for-science-and-humanity-12128452

[Raz]

SP might see a bounce based on this piece of news.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-be-90-effective-in-great-day-for-science-and-humanity-12128452

not sure people and the industry as a whole will be totally reassured, 90% effective rate translates into a 10% failure rate ?

"To provide context, A more than 90% effective coronavirus vaccine would be roughly on par with one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the CDC says a vaccine for influenza reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% to 60% among the overall population."

Still the upper middle class people of the world who are older, often boomers with underlying health issues, will they take the risk on given a 10% failure rate? Assuming death is not the concern but longer term compromised health, which is now well documented for covid, I'm still not sure I will be jumping on planes and travelling like I use to... I Know I was within the market segment doing most of the high frequency and high end travel.

[Ballr]

That's a fair shout, and a good idea to benchmark how this success rate compares to other vaccinations. I'm not completely convinced that this is the final vaccine that the world is waiting for, but considering we accept measles vax with a 7% failure rate, I doubt a lot of (struggling) economies would reject a 10% failure rate for their populations.

Pfizer and co would need to give more intel to the market on the 10% who do get it, if they fare better or worse than the mean.

Also, just checked, and the Dow Jones U.S. Travel & Leisure Index (Google DJUSCG) is up 9% today!

[shapeg]

As far as I have heard, we only need 60-70% of the population immune to have herd immunity. I suspect that 90% may be more than we need - if it works.

[BlackPeter]

As far as I have heard, we only need 60-70% of the population immune to have herd immunity. I suspect that 90% may be more than we need - if it works.

Yes, but to reach 90% immunity in the population you would need to vaccinate 100% of the people.

I hear already the howling of the anti-vaccers ...

[shapeg]

Indeed - well spotted. I realised that after I pushed the post button. If it looks like an effective vaccine and we get 90% sign up for it then we could hope for 90% x 90% = 81% immunity? Woo Hoo. Anyway, I invested $10k in AIR 2 days ago as a speculation on the vaccine and a travel bubble opening so the end result is good so far .......................

[Raz]

SP might see a bounce based on this piece of news.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-be-90-effective-in-great-day-for-science-and-humanity-12128452

nice trade already

[nevchev]

Not sure why this ran so hard.Any recovery in travel would still be two years away

[causecelebre]

This is just so typical of Air NZ management. Laying off all their lowest paid employees, while taking a measly 10% pay cut from their $800k+ per year salaries and issuing themselves more shares in the company to offset any perceived salary sacrifice.

Happened under Luxon also, told all frontline employees there was no money for a bonus so paid them $100 each (before tax) as their annual bonus, then after the fact, its disclosed he left with a $2.4m golden handshake, after being paid an annual salary of $4m+ per year.

I'm not a share holder, would like to be, but while the current muppets are running the show, I wouldn't touch it with a 20ft barge pole.

I know it's a bitter pill to swallow. Need to keep in mind that those shares don't mature until 2023 and payed out only if the AIR outperforms competing airlines. Hmmm, hardly high standards to live up to.

[Marilyn Munroe]

The spreadsheet jockeys at Bain are now in the pilot seat of Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division).

They are going to want a return on their $3.5 billion investment. The wing commanders at Cullen Airlines and air marshal Robertson should prepare for a dog fight over the Tasman when it reopens.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/covid-19-pandemic-the-sale-of-virgin-australia-to-bain-capital/12892508

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[nztx]

Good grief - $1.665 or near abouts - the price some are prepared to pay to be diluted down the river
with a large further Cap Raise price tag sometime in the not too distant future ;)

Looks like fairly dire punishment for those buying AIR on name only not thinking more carefully ;)

[winner69]

Bill Gates reckons half of business travel will never return

[Beagle]

Bill Gates reckons half of business travel will never return

Yeah, I reckon he is right. Gotta say Greg Foran has a lovely calm relaxed manner about him. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealand-eyes-new-elite-plus-airpoints-tier-luxe-row-in-business-premier-section/VQYVVGQTFSS3BUUS6N3M3SVKRU/ Possibly the right man for the job but the headwinds are still much to fierce for me to consider reinvesting.
I am happy to let others donate their money to AIR to help restore their balance sheet. Time will tell in which year they have a viable business again but there's no question its not FY21 and extremely unlikely to be FY22 either !
Maybe breaking even in FY23 and a very small profit in FY24 on about twice the number of shares presently on issue.

[causecelebre]

Yeah, I reckon he is right. Gotta say Greg Foran has a lovely calm relaxed manner about him. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealand-eyes-new-elite-plus-airpoints-tier-luxe-row-in-business-premier-section/VQYVVGQTFSS3BUUS6N3M3SVKRU/ Possibly the right man for the job but the headwinds are still much to fierce for me to consider reinvesting.
I am happy to let others donate their money to AIR to help restore their balance sheet. Time will tell in which year they have a viable business again but there's no question its not FY21 and extremely unlikely to be FY22 either !
Maybe breaking even in FY23 and a very small profit in FY24 on about twice the number of shares presently on issue.

Not surprising to see that article. AIR have been touting a focus toward high value travellers for some time. Obviously coordinated with the recent announcements from tourism minister, Stuart Nash, around the same focus.

[nztx]

Goodness me -- still flying (or drifting) higher is Robertson Air - $1.70 & and a half

The old proverb -- 'the higher they are the faster & harder they may fall' comes to mind ;)


A Cap Raise grab from shareholders pockets coming up may be at higher that 50c a shot, on the current blue air levels as well ;)

Then the unfortunate minorities get informed of the vast pile of recent AIR Red Ink that their hard earned has replaced which evaporated mysteriously into the upper thermals, with still mostly cloudy forecast future prospects expected .. ;)

[Waltzing]

On the B Gates interview there were other commentators that said that their fly boys and girls were ready to go and bump the elbows was the way to go... business class seats ripped out? lets face it that long haul in the middle of the night from auckland , singapore over moscow to copenhagen is a business class only trip...and those old singapore 777 were to noise , the newer 950 is the way to go i think.

[Waltzing]

i suppose the CAP raise is only getting the green light after all the expensive loan from the government has been taken down? really this is a total disgrace from the major shareholder.
Or govt is saying dont take any xmas money off the economic table..... hit them after please... summer over then hit them once the vaccines are out there...

[Cyclical]

This article in the Herald (Premium pay walled) from yesterday says:

Forsyth Barr says the Airpoints scheme is scalable, lights on assets and generates relatively stable earnings.

''We believe it is a higher multiple business than Air [NZ's] aviation business and contributes a material part of current share price,'' say analysts Andy Bowley and Scott Anderson.

''This may sound fanciful, yet a number of recent US airlines have used their loyalty schemes as collateral in recent funding events.'' The airline will raise capital in the first half of 2021.

Note the bit in bold, seems a bit out of the blue and I'm not sure who's actually saying that, I guess the Herald journalist (Grant Bradley). It's a fair assumption there will be a cap raise in the NY I guess and may only be that, an assumption.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-airpoints-scheme-a-better-earner-than-aviation-business-forsyth-barr/2TUTV5KTSW2PGH65R7TT46ILSE/

[Cyclical]

Bill Gates reckons half of business travel will never return

I can say for a fact that remote access solutions and the likes of MS HoloLens is saving the Taranaki hydrocarbons industry untold $$ this year. The flipside maybe slightly less consumption of their downstream product by way of av gas haha.

[nztx]

Yet more hot air landing in the AIR thermals - is the Fat Lady still singing loudly ? ;)

At this rate - even the piano might need take off clearance (but don't stand under either) ;)

[Waltzing]

they are bringing in a world class tuning expert to get the steinway up to its best possible sound before they bring on the singer...

[Jaa]

''This may sound fanciful, yet a number of recent US airlines have used their loyalty schemes as collateral in recent funding events.'' The airline will raise capital in the first half of 2021.

Note the bit in bold, seems a bit out of the blue and I'm not sure who's actually saying that, I guess the Herald journalist (Grant Bradley). It's a fair assumption there will be a cap raise in the NY I guess and may only be that, an assumption.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-airpoints-scheme-a-better-earner-than-aviation-business-forsyth-barr/2TUTV5KTSW2PGH65R7TT46ILSE/

Air NZ said this in a recent announcement, its nothing new.

[nztx]

they are bringing in a world class tuning expert to get the steinway up to its best possible sound before they bring on the singer...


Probably have to do a free performance in front of the Beehive Airhead Brauhooters & other clueless limpets first to get the required entry ticket .. ;)

[Waltzing]

The old saying the market is right until its wrong... its a trade until they cap raise and i think that has been in NZHerald articles before that the CAP raise was slated for april may but that was probably just a mightmare i cant recall...

[Beagle]

Forbar apparently recently out with a note saying their airpoints loyalty scheme is very valuable and earnings from it deserve a higher multiple.
Disc: No position and CERTAINLY NOT interested in establishing a long one at this price :eek2:

[Zaphod]

Forbar apparently recently out with a note saying their airpoints loyalty scheme is very valuable and earnings from it deserve a higher multiple.
Disc: No position and CERTAINLY NOT interested in establishing a long one at this price :eek2:

A long time ago, I advocated selling part of the loyalty programme to release capital, but that's not my position anymore given this is probably the largest key drivers of revenue the airline! That's a change that I didn't envisage.

[Beagle]

A long time ago, I advocated selling part of the loyalty programme to release capital, but that's not my position anymore given this is probably the largest key drivers of revenue the airline! That's a change that I didn't envisage.

We certainly live in interesting times ! Border controls to continue until well into 2022 ? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-jacinda-ardern-nz-needs-certain-level-of-herd-immunity-before-border-restrictions-eased/VONTIWIP5OU5UC2DJFAKXETVAI/

$1.85...it seems to me this one is flying on fumes and hope and little else.

[Waltzing]

well i thinks its a trade for sure.... short time trades only...

[nztx]

We certainly live in interesting times ! Border controls to continue until well into 2022 ? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-jacinda-ardern-nz-needs-certain-level-of-herd-immunity-before-border-restrictions-eased/VONTIWIP5OU5UC2DJFAKXETVAI/

$1.85...it seems to me this one is flying on fumes and hope and little else.


Yep agreed - but if it keeps the blind Beehive bunch amused looking at the clouds of BS then WTH .. ;)
At least it keeps them away from meddling with other things

[Jaa]

The airpoints noise sounds like softening up for a capital raise to me. One of their many valuable assets.

Time to admit Air NZ's strategy to play for time was the correct one Beagle? Will be more demand for their capital raising next year with a stable domestic business, approved vaccines being distributed and an end to the pandemic clearly in sight.

The border will go through a staged re-opening, Australia first who plan to make the vaccine mandatory then other low risks/highly vaccinated countries like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan etc. That is a good part of Air NZ's international network.

Who knows the US could surprise us all by reaching herd immunity first with their high infection rate and early access to so many vaccines. Which is of course the other major part of Air NZ's international network.

Higher risk countries last unless a person can prove they have been vaccinated. People will fake the familiar yellow vaccine book or anything equivalent so there might have to be antibody testing before bording? Am waiting for some fool to suggest a blockchain solution...! :eek2:

[Beagle]

No...they're just limping along on life support. Completely idiotic buying at this price in my opinion knowing a capital raise is coming.

[Jaa]

Price is not strategy.

[Beagle]

Neither is hope and flying on fumes.

[winner69]

Jeez ...nearly hit 2 bucks today

Must be on its way to 3 bucks

[BlackPeter]

Jeez ...nearly hit 2 bucks today

Must be on its way to 3 bucks

Just amazing isn't it? Just looking at the boring fundamentals ... P/E around negative 5 and losing 40 cents per share in the year without a clear path back to profitability - this must be the new star. On the plus side - there is little uncertainty about their financial problems, and low uncertainty is clearly a good thing :t_up:; I reccon SP will go further up on further negative news :);

Maybe its not just the US president de-elect living in an alternative universe?

[Beagle]

Just amazing isn't it? Just looking at the boring fundamentals ... P/E around negative 5 and losing 40 cents per share in the year without a clear path back to profitability - this must be the new star. On the plus side - there is little uncertainty about their financial problems, and low uncertainty is clearly a good thing :t_up:; I reccon SP will go further up on further negative news :);

Maybe its not just the US president de-elect living in an alternative universe?

LOL Surely the post of the week ! Maybe the orange clown is about to make a takeover lol

[Blue Skies]

Jetstar taking it to AIR releasing thousands of fares from $19. Aggressively trying to expand market share.
Surprised there hasn't been more of a reaction to the AIR SP.

[Waltzing]

This is why we have started the move back into travel and the doubling of share prices because of new technologies for safe travel could see travel boom and SP's in this sector x+ >2.

probably only air travel around NZ wont get these new technologies....just yet?

[DDog]

Air New Zealand has been awarded four months of additional cargo flights under the Government’s International Air Freight Capacity (IAFC) scheme.

[Waltzing]

wait till you have to pay a fly tax , it wont be long before if you fly locally you will pay a tax on flying....

[mondograss]

wait till you have to pay a fly tax , it wont be long before if you fly locally you will pay a tax on flying....

You mean a departure tax, which we have now for international flights anyway.

[iceman]

You mean a departure tax, which we have now for international flights anyway.

I think he is meaning "climate emergency tax". I'm sure we haven't had a departure tax in NZ for a very long time.

[mondograss]

I think he is meaning "climate emergency tax". I'm sure we haven't had a departure tax in NZ for a very long time.

They just call it a border control levy now, but it’s basically the same thing. https://www.customs.govt.nz/personal/travel-to-and-from-nz/leaving-nz/

[BlackPeter]

I think he is meaning "climate emergency tax". I'm sure we haven't had a departure tax in NZ for a very long time.

Not sure what you call "a very long time". I don't think it is more than a decade ago that we all when departing had to first move to the conveniently placed bank counter in the airport and submit our $25 departure tax to the NZ government so that they allow us to leave the country.

And actually - while we don't need to pay this tax these days in cash ... I presume it still exists and is now only part of the ticket price. Just check when they allow you next time to depart :):

[iceman]

[/B]
Not sure what you call "a very long time". I don't think it is more than a decade ago that we all when departing had to first move to the conveniently placed bank counter in the airport and submit our $25 departure tax to the NZ government so that they allow us to leave the country.

And actually - while we don't need to pay this tax these days in cash ... I presume it still exists and is now only part of the ticket price. Just check when they allow you next time to depart :):

I know that BP. It was 10 years ago that the $25 departure tax was abolished (or included in the ticket) and we now pay a small administration fee or border control levy of $ 2.94 as mondograss pointed out. (I've looked at my ET for my flight out of NZ last week and can not see it separated out!!) But the initial suggestion from waltsing man above was about introduction of taxes when we fly "locally". I did not read that to mean international travel.

[mondograss]

I guess you could levy one domestically but why bother, the collection costs would be too high. If it’s a climate related thing, easier to just levy avgas surely.

[777]

For information this is what is quoted on a Hong Kong return flight and included in the tickets.

F1 International Border Clearance Levy $20.11
G3 Airport Construction Fee $29.60
HK Air Passenger Departure Tax $22.20
I5 Airport Passenger Security Charge $9.30
IA Passenger Security Charge $16.32
KK Passenger Service Charge $34.98
Total $132.51

[iceman]

For information this is what is quoted on a Hong Kong return flight and included in the tickets.

F1 International Border Clearance Levy $20.11
G3 Airport Construction Fee $29.60
HK Air Passenger Departure Tax $22.20
I5 Airport Passenger Security Charge $9.30
IA Passenger Security Charge $16.32
KK Passenger Service Charge $34.98
Total $132.51

Out of Hong Kong ?

[777]

No it is a AKL HKG return flight. If you go through the ticket purchase process you can select what the charges are included in the price of ticket.

[winner69]

When Singapore were flying WLG to Canberra there were $245 in taxes / add ons on a return ticket

[Waltzing]

No local fly tax.

wonder what the climate emergency tax on auckland wellington will be..

the new economy sleep pod is soon to be rolled out by AIR... bit on seeing this

[Zaphod]

When Singapore were flying WLG to Canberra there were $245 in taxes / add ons on a return ticket

The Au departure tax components can be quite a bit higher than NZ. My BNE flights were always much more expensive on the return sector. Obviously not an issue now though!

[Zaphod]

No local fly tax.

wonder what the climate emergency tax on auckland wellington will be..

the new economy sleep pod is soon to be rolled out by AIR... bit on seeing this

Realistically, the government could unilaterally change any climate-related policy they want as they have the numbers. A climate emergency declaration appears to be more of a symbolic declaration, probably to warm the general population (pun intended) to whatever measures they have in mind.

That may include a new compulsory charge, but I would have thought that tweaking the existing ETS would give them their desired result.

[winner69]

Fran O’Sullivan moaning about AIRfares ...she just doesn’t get it

@FranOSullivan
Many of the @FlyAirNZ tickets for flights between Auckland and Wellington now hitting $408 (each way) for seat only. I thought dynamic pricing - aka price gouging - was over. C'mon @FlyAirNZ you can do better.

[Zaphod]

Obviously the commentators doesn't understand supply and demand OR, as I am increasing inclined to believe, playing the narrative that we're being severely ripped off generates clicks and advertising revenue.

I can see seat-only non-stop flights next week AKL-WLG starting from $250 through $300 depending upon timing, with the following week starting at $80. Clearly if you book ahead, you can save some significant money.

[Waltzing]

im tempted! just to support the national carrier even if the government wont.

[Waltzing]

"ETS "

is there still one? i forgot or rather its faded from memory... very small hippocampus...

[Arbroath]

[QUOTE=winner69;859688]Fran O’Sullivan moaning about AIRfares ...she just doesn’t get it

@FranOSullivan
Many of the @FlyAirNZ tickets for flights between Auckland and Wellington now hitting $408 (each way) for seat only. I thought dynamic pricing - aka price gouging - was over. C'mon @FlyAirNZ you can do better.[/QUOTE

After extorting $400 from me last weekend I will never fly AIR again where I have a choice which funnily enough is every time I fly overseas in future and as an affluent 40 year old is decades of flying.

Won’t bore you with the details but I’ve been a supporter and flyer of AIR for nearly 30 years and that is all gone with one very poor experience. That $400 gouge out of me will lose them tens of thousands of dollars in future bookings. Some might call them dumb.

[dobby41]

After extorting $400 from me last weekend I will never fly AIR again where I have a choice which funnily enough is every time I fly overseas in future and as an affluent 40 year old is decades of flying.

Won’t bore you with the details but I’ve been a supporter and flyer of AIR for nearly 30 years and that is all gone with one very poor experience. That $400 gouge out of me will lose them tens of thousands of dollars in future bookings. Some might call them dumb.
Some people are very fickle.
40yrs old and flying for 30 yrs - well done.

[Arbroath]

Some people are very fickle.
40yrs old and flying for 30 yrs - well done.

True enough about fickleness. It’s not even the $400 that irks. It was the way we were treated. Really no skin off my nose as there are plenty of airlines. Just thought people might be interested as first flew at 12 and have done quite a bit of business flying, though not anymore, and will be flying quite a bit in future. I could put it down to one bad experience I guess...but when customers have choices that’s all you need to point you in a different direction.

[Beagle]

Jarden rate AIR SELL !

[BlackPeter]

Jarden rate AIR SELL !

Not before time ;) ... but hey, given that thy are seen as part of the "smart money" it is a relieve they got their eventually.

[Habits]

Fran O’Sullivan moaning about AIRfares ...she just doesn’t get it

@FranOSullivan
Many of the @FlyAirNZ tickets for flights between Auckland and Wellington now hitting $408 (each way) for seat only. I thought dynamic pricing - aka price gouging - was over. C'mon @FlyAirNZ you can do better.

Went to Wellington last weekend and traveled by car ... long and tiring trip I can tell you. 400 bucks is about the price you pay for a good meal for four at restaurants and cafes

[nztx]

Jarden rate AIR SELL !



Surely not .. ;)

Last ones off lash down the Wings to the deck incase things slide sideways badly .. ;)

[Jaa]

Went to Wellington last weekend and traveled by car ... long and tiring trip I can tell you. 400 bucks is about the price you pay for a good meal for four at restaurants and cafes

Excellent point.

Hearing self-described wealthy people whinge over the price of a nice meal or two is my least favourite form of post. Expecting a loss making company that has had to cut benefits, wages and 30-50% of staff to fund the unsustainable climate destroying lifestyle one has become accustomed to reflects really poorly on the poster.

Lots of people in travel and tourism are doing it very tough this year. Bit of perspective goes a long way in life.

[Jaa]

Some good news not mentioned here:


NZers can now fly to Queensland quarantine free. A very popular route.
Cook Islands travel bubble has also been promised to start next quarter.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/432689/nz-cook-islands-announce-quarantine-free-travel-bubble


A few countries moving towards a 7 (Singapore) or 10 day (Malaysia) hotel quarantine period followed by in some cases more days at home with a wristband. Lots of research now suggesting infected people are most infectious in the first few days after infection. As infamously demonstrated by Donald Trump.

NZ has a lot to lose and thus is understandably risk adverse to changing what has worked so well but some risk adjusted changes could work. Flights to NZ are long so that builds in a bit of insurance.

A 10 day managed isolation period for people coming from low risk countries like Taiwan and Australia would help NZ free up quarantine space, increase international arrivals and gradually open borders.

Alternatively a 7 managed isolation quarantine period with a 7 day home quarantine period for people from low risk countries could also work. Make it optional and staying home with the wristband on compulsory on threat of prison time.

[Sideshow Bob]

Went to Wellington last weekend and traveled by car ... long and tiring trip I can tell you. 400 bucks is about the price you pay for a good meal for four at restaurants and cafes

Flew AKL to Invercargill in about 1990 - absolute cheapest fare I could get $596.

Can fly return in January for $358.

People expect they can get cheap/discounted flights at the drop of a hat (I often do!). Has become expected and a lifestyle.

[Arbroath]

Excellent point.

Hearing self-described wealthy people whinge over the price of a nice meal or two is my least favourite form of post. Expecting a loss making company that has had to cut benefits, wages and 30-50% of staff to fund the unsustainable climate destroying lifestyle one has become accustomed to reflects really poorly on the poster.

Lots of people in travel and tourism are doing it very tough this year. Bit of perspective goes a long way in life.

I hope you’re doing your bit Jaa. We have been tripping around the South Island supporting tourism businesses and on the west coast it is amazingly quiet. One restaurant owner who had 3 restaurants and 95 staff now is only operating one evenings only and has laid off 80 staff.

My issue is with a terrible attitude to a long term customer from AIR. Won’t be supporting them anymore but will continue supporting small tourism businesses.

[dobby41]

My issue is with a terrible attitude to a long term customer from AIR. Won’t be supporting them anymore but will continue supporting small tourism businesses.

What attitude was that?
Charging what they needed to?
They should have known that you were a long time customer and given you a special rate because you are entitled to it!

[Waltzing]

the travel bubble is at risk... yes stating the obvious but new medical publications in NZ are warning the testing needs to tighten up.. AUS has not got this under control and now our medical professionals are issuing new warnings. Just saying the stock has not yet got out of the woods but the rehiring of A320 staff is a good sign. Fingers crossed!

[peat]

Naughty naughty................ nearly 5 hours of information asymmetry.

[causecelebre]

Naughty AIR, naughty ;)

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/433131/air-new-zealand-censured-and-fined-40k-for-breaching-nzx-disclosure-rules

[Waltzing]

Im sure someone could write a book here on the govt response to AIR. We certainly expected more of a response to the problem from the RBNZ in relation to the local bond market for listed companies. Some may argue this was not required in the end but we look to the FED in that they were ready to move to the market IF required and certainly perhaps this should have been considered for AIR by the RBNZ. Some may say its a slippery slope but ever since GFC its been a slope off a high mountain.

[peat]

just to be clear waltzing, because its not always your strong point, are you saying that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should purchase AIR bonds?
Specifically AIR020 as its the only one listed on the NZDX

[Waltzing]

A wider response than was adopted by the RBNZ may be required next time. Letting civilisation slip when a standard such as gold no longer back stops a society may be something NZ INC might considers in the wider scope of monetary policy to support society. Which may also be a case why other categories of monetary exchange may turn out to be dead end roads to no where.

Now this may seem cryptic but its is designed to be a speculative summary. And there in is crux of the matter. There are much bigger threats out there than a virus to civilisation such as it is.

The big argument now around the world in central banks and politics which was published in NZ before the election was the next steps that society should take to protect its progress so far.

One needs to look no farther than the much maligned but ground breaking series by Clark, Civilisation. In it Clark clearly sets out the progress and its threats from man but leaves out the other threats. Excuse this is not the forum for such musings but AIR could just be the tip of the ice berg next time.

[Arbroath]

What attitude was that?
Charging what they needed to?
They should have known that you were a long time customer and given you a special rate because you are entitled to it!

That’s not what happened and I’m not getting into it with you. I just thought other posters might be interested that a poor customer experience has alienated a frequent flyer of 28 years to be precise but I’ll just leave this forum to it. GLTAH

[Ahgong]

Does Air NZ fly the 737 Max? I would hesitate to do so in view of the following:

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/new-concerns-emerge-after-737-max-recertification-senate/

[dobby41]

Does Air NZ fly the 737 Max? I would hesitate to do so in view of the following:

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/new-concerns-emerge-after-737-max-recertification-senate/

No they don't - they don't fly 737 at all and replaced them with A320 (and variants).

[Alpha]

Bubble with cook Island Jan 21st. One way though.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/434575/one-way-cook-islands-bubble-to-begin-next-week

[Jaa]

Was reading through the November op stats to catch up and see domestic demand was 72% of 2019 with more flights and seats added in December.

Also found this nugget:


Since the start of Covid-19, Air New Zealand Cargo’s revenue contribution has grown from ten percent to nearly half of the current monthly revenue of the airline.

[nztx]

Bubble with cook Island Jan 21st. One way though.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/434575/one-way-cook-islands-bubble-to-begin-next-week

bound to rescue the day for Robertson Air .. ;)

How does the Large Govt Prop up Loan at extortionate Interest rates look now ?

Enuff Custy credits come in yet to pay it down ? or not ?

some further Conch shells tossed in from the Islands are bound to help .. ;)

[causecelebre]

The contributors to this thread could have told them that, lol

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123988985/air-nz-most-complained-about-company-commerce-commission-says

[peat]

Jeff McDowall CFO resigned in October but would see through the 'capital raise'.

It must suck to have to work through this when you just want out.

[nztx]

This still flapping, or slowly gliding lower in to land at Robertson (Not much) International
Airport in Welly for slightly different sort of top up ? ;)

[Waltzing]

Quick get the bowser out on the tarmac she's coming to refuel any day now.....more fuel at 9%?

[Dassets]

You can short via CMC. It was obvious the borders will remain closed for the year. NZ will be last cab for vaccine. Why? Because we don't have covid here.

[nztx]

You can short via CMC. It was obvious the borders will remain closed for the year. NZ will be last cab for vaccine. Why? Because we don't have covid here.


Yep agreed .. & so far little or no vaccine as well


Aus bubble was just wishful Socialist dream but only as good as the Aussies policing & controlling their state & national borders

We could always bank on the Aussies slamming the gate shut fast, if they saw something they didn't like
while our Govt were all peacefully dreaming to be woken by a bad dream .. ;)

Our detention camps all have gaping holes & deficiencies (as evidenced on what has repeatedly come out - ie CHCH Northland
Auckland etc & only a wish & prayer is saving us with hope there wont be a wider community case & spread coming out
of the detention centres .. ;)

[Waltzing]

"wish & prayer "

it was a shambles..

boy was someone looking after NZ? or it just got lucky again!

not willing to short the lucky nation.

[nztx]

Help needed from the Bank of Robertson to keep flapping:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124066824/airlines-need-roughly-600m-in-government-support-to-keep-air-links-open-airline-group-says

Airlines need roughly $600m in government support to keep air links open, airline group says

Most suspected this would happen when Dear Leader's merry little wish list of Bubbles everywhere
start bursting around her sweet little ears .. ;)

Keep saving the pennies - Loyal Holders - your turn will be likely next and quite possibly be accompanied
by the fine art of being royally Slam-dunked for privilege of being in holder seats .. ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

339506.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/366878/339506.pdf)

December Op Stats continue to make pretty sobering reading......

[nztx]

339506.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/366878/339506.pdf)

December Op Stats continue to make pretty sobering reading......

More than a slight nosedive in those Stats for sure -- with no real definite end of the carnage in sight ;)

[Dassets]

When will AIR get honest with people about its business? How is it meeting continuous disclosure requirements?? Minister Nash made it plain on the AM show this morning. No international tourism this year and this likely to roll into 2022. This has been obvious to a dead parrot for at least the last 2 months.

AIR is being heavily subsidised by GONZ via the freight support scheme. May be as much as $600m a year from that. And it is still bleeding cash and drawing the (ever diminishing) expensive GONZ loan.

IMO it appears AIR is likely to be insolvent under my understanding of the test unless it has further assurances from the GONZ. If these exist they have to be made public under disclosure rule. Time for RegCo(new NZX reg arm) to step in.

Why is AIR still paying B777 "furloughed" crew. Is this true? Has AIR effectively not taken the redundancy up front and is rumoured to be on the hook for 70% wages for the next 2 years. Basically hard baking a high cost base if true.

[koko90]

Air NZ isn’t paying any furloughed crew a cent. If you are specifically referring to pilots Air NZ let go over 300. The remaining crew were kept on 70% pay and other measures implemented such as leave without pay, part time work schemes and early retirements. 777 crew have been redeployed to other fleets where there is substantial workload.

[Marilyn Munroe]

I suspect Grant Roberr-tsons shock on learning of the Saudi maintenance contract was propelled by hope the excrement flying about would stick to Christopher Luxon.

boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Dassets]

Well I know of some of these things from the actual pilots. I know one 320 FO was offered a turboprop job if he moved to Nelson earning 60t pa. He was laid off. What a joke. He was earning over 200t. But I do know that the 777 guys that are still flying that have been redeployed have pay protection. So if they were earning 300t flying 777 they now earn that flying ATR. There are pilots earning 70% doing no flying at all. Their contracts were different.

[mike2020]

I think its a long way off being a place to invest money and if you are holding you better have a lot of patience. But, while I disagree with the work they have been doing for the Saudi's, the UK sold 2.5 billion of arms to them last year and has no intention of stopping.

[777]

Well I know of some of these things from the actual pilots. I know one 320 FO was offered a turboprop job if he moved to Nelson earning 60t pa. He was laid off. What a joke. He was earning over 200t. But I do know that the 777 guys that are still flying that have been redeployed have pay protection. So if they were earning 300t flying 777 they now earn that flying ATR. There are pilots earning 70% doing no flying at all. Their contracts were different.

Total rubbish...

[Sideshow Bob]

Gubbermint still want majority ownership.....interesting to see if the govt loan gets converted to equity

Letter from Crown on Air NZ capital raise - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367460)

Air New Zealand has actively engaged with the Crown as the Company has continued to assess its longer-term capital structure and funding needs. Air New Zealand has recently reconfirmed to the Crown its intention to complete an equity capital raise before 30 June 2021.

Given the critical role the Company has in New Zealand’s economy and society, the Crown has, in that context, confirmed in a letter to the Air New Zealand Chairman received today its longstanding commitment to maintaining a majority shareholding in Air New Zealand. This letter also confirmed that, subject to Cabinet being satisfied with the terms of Air New Zealand’s proposed equity capital raise, it would participate in that equity capital raise in order to maintain a majority shareholding in Air New Zealand.
Ends.

[BlackPeter]

Gubbermint still want majority ownership.....interesting to see if the govt loan gets converted to equity

Letter from Crown on Air NZ capital raise - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367460)

Air New Zealand has actively engaged with the Crown as the Company has continued to assess its longer-term capital structure and funding needs. Air New Zealand has recently reconfirmed to the Crown its intention to complete an equity capital raise before 30 June 2021.

Given the critical role the Company has in New Zealand’s economy and society, the Crown has, in that context, confirmed in a letter to the Air New Zealand Chairman received today its longstanding commitment to maintaining a majority shareholding in Air New Zealand. This letter also confirmed that, subject to Cabinet being satisfied with the terms of Air New Zealand’s proposed equity capital raise, it would participate in that equity capital raise in order to maintain a majority shareholding in Air New Zealand.
Ends.

Well, that's a surprise, isn't it? Who would have thought that AIR might need more capital?

[Waltzing]

possible opportunity at some date for future profits but the SHAS investor has surely kept this bird up in the AIR long past the date where it PL say its SP should be flying high.

SHAS investors perhaps thought the gates to the cloudy islands would be open by now.

There appears to be no innovative solutions coming from the Finance Minister and treasury even thought MR O indicated he would if given the power move beyond standard tools for asset purchases.

[Dassets]

Capital raise imo nz govt loan converted to equity circa 900m, close to 900 m from the minorities. My guess 50 cents per share will be the price. Unfortunately huge dilution for shareholders who do not participate. Then the "prop up that isn't a prop up" aka public money used for cargo support will be withdrawn and the actual cash raises from minorities used. That will be gone by late next calendar year. Really this should have gone into receivership and the bones picked up by government rather than paying for the bloated exec and pilots.

No dividends look possible for imo 5 years min. Interesting to know cost of maint(variuos A thru D checks and crew re train)to get the birds back in the air, if ever.

[Beagle]

Greg Foran the other day warned that things might not be back to pre Covid level's for a full decade !!

That's all the warning any reasonably intelligent investor should need so there's no need for me to be barking warnings when the CEO already has but in case anyone wants to know my opinion I see very, very little possibility of a profit in the foreseeable future and I foresee the likelihood of the vast majority of the capital about to be injected being eaten away in due course with losses as being almost certain. A prudent investor might like to ponder if the pending capital raise will be the only one or the first of several ?

More food for thought. Are people injecting capital shortly investors or are they ostensibly donating welfare payments to maintain critically important transport infrastructure ?

[Waltzing]

Around our virtual table ideas always span a decade...:sleep:

I recall MR B posting these ideas back the winter of 2020.

Several Cap raises were reflected on at the time. Without doing some modelling 50 cents might be a bit high.

the 777 need to be sold at a date in perhaps 2 years time.

Its a case of sell everything they dont need.

it a case of shareholders are now standing on the flight path and a large aircraft is about to land right on top of them.

[percy]

Air's international air freight is doing extremely well at present.

[causecelebre]

AIR isn't really critical infrastructure. Plenty of competition out there.

[Dassets]

Yes but has a 600m subsidy to do it. Take that away and each flight is a massive loser. Go look at the load factors. Horrifying.I bet they will start, if not already doing it reclassifying flights as pure cargo and this take out of load factor calls. Only prob is the planes are not cargo ac so fly well under MAUW.

[Waltzing]

The little Blue medal you get when you are jabbed might be the new gold medal.

Some commentators are says when the world travels again there wont be enough planes. Some cruise tours for 2023 are already booked out.

Sometimes the points plotted forward dont always go as forecast.

Maybe the demand in 2024/25 is so great you wont be able to book a flight let alone a cruise.

Share prices across the globe will rise long before profits hit the bottom lines.

[Sideshow Bob]

Air's international air freight is doing extremely well at present.

Propped up by their major shareholder.

Covid 19 coronavirus: Government's air freight package ensures critical imports such as medicine continue - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-governments-air-freight-package-ensures-critical-imports-such-as-medicine-continue/ILWYW6MGXND5KEECBNGY2QD3I4/)

[traineeinvestor]

Plenty of competition out there.

With respect, that's not the case right now. Overseas airlines are cutting back even further on their flights to NZ. As an example, Cathay Pacific has just announced it will axe all its remanning flights between HK and NZ. International tourism is dead and the few people who need to fly to/from NZ have very few options at the moment - choice of airlines is pretty much non-existent.

[traineeinvestor]

the 777 need to be sold at a date in perhaps 2 years time.

Its a case of sell everything they dont need.



Good luck trying to sell second hand aircraft right now.

[koko90]

Well I know of some of these things from the actual pilots. I know one 320 FO was offered a turboprop job if he moved to Nelson earning 60t pa. He was laid off. What a joke. He was earning over 200t. But I do know that the 777 guys that are still flying that have been redeployed have pay protection. So if they were earning 300t flying 777 they now earn that flying ATR. There are pilots earning 70% doing no flying at all. Their contracts were different.

There is a lot of misinformation you got there. For one the turboprops are a separate entity, pilots can’t transfer from 777 to an ATR due to contractual provisions. They can only be transferred within the jet fleet from the 777 to say the 787 or 320. And the transferred pilots do not have pay protection, there is no such thing. Any 777 pilot directed to the 787 has taken a paycut. There are no 777 pilots flying ATRs either. None of the furloughed jet pilots have been offered a turboprop job yet because even the turboprops were overstaffed and they furloughed a bunch of their pilots too, not all of them are back to work yet and they will get first dabs at any openings before any furloughed jet pilot gets the opportunity.

[Beagle]

AIR isn't really critical infrastructure. Plenty of competition out there.

Try telling that to people in Hokitika. You think Jetstar have any plans to fly there in the foreseeable future ?

[causecelebre]

With respect, that's not the case right now. Overseas airlines are cutting back even further on their flights to NZ. As an example, Cathay Pacific has just announced it will axe all its remanning flights between HK and NZ. International tourism is dead and the few people who need to fly to/from NZ have very few options at the moment - choice of airlines is pretty much non-existent.

I'm sure if the NZ Govt started offering $600m in subsidies we would find the odd flight or two

[causecelebre]

Try telling that to people in Hokitika. You think Jetstar have any plans to fly there in the foreseeable future ?

lol. You mean try telling Shane Jones

[Beagle]

lol. You mean try telling Shane Jones

edited...nztx said it better.

[nztx]

lol. You mean try telling Shane Jones


Shane Who ? .. lol ;)

[nztx]

Thought Green Elf - Golly would have been seen more of threat .. ;)

Have the Board & Top brass all distracted while things are cartwheeling towards the ground

and still pop up among the wreckage for another go at them at the post mortem to determine what happened .. ;)

Shaw really should put her back in her box and tape the lid more securely shut this time ;)

[nztx]

I'm sure if the NZ Govt started offering $600m in subsidies we would find the odd flight or two


Seen Nash's spit out on any help to private ailing Tourism Biz's today ? ;)


Clear message that this Govt may only be considering a few of the favoured pets
and screw all the rest struggling out there unless everyone suffers a level change .. ;)

Obviously no clues have penetrated that private bizo's are part of the travel equation .. ;)

Spose all the bods carted around by Air NZ could park up for a sleep outside on a rock under a tree
at their end destinations, but really .. ? ;)

Spose we're lucky that AIR hasn't been mauled over & left hanging more badly by
the band of meddling muppets with few clues on the hill .. ;)

[Dassets]

A320 to ATR, yes I have that 1st hand sorry, the offer is on the table and was rejected

[Blue Skies]

Seen Nash's spit out on any help to private ailing Tourism Biz's today ? ;)


Clear message that this Govt may only be considering a few of the favoured pets
and screw all the rest struggling out there unless everyone suffers a level change .. ;)

Obviously no clues have penetrated that private bizo's are part of the travel equation .. ;)

Spose all the bods carted around by Air NZ could park up for a sleep outside on a rock under a tree
at their end destinations, but really .. ? ;)

Spose we're lucky that AIR hasn't been mauled over & left hanging more badly by
the band of meddling muppets with few clues on the hill .. ;)


Regularly hearing tourism operators complaining they're not getting any assistance from govt, but seldom hearing any mention in the media of the $400 million Tourism Recovery package govt providing. There's even exemptions from IRD in certain circumstances. Seems a bit one sided.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124232998/energy-stocks-tank-pulling-down-sharemarket-as-investors-eye-growth

Talking $1 - $1.5 Billion, maybe more, and all that capital required with no reasonable prospect of a profit in the foreseeable future. Hmmm, Good luck with that.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124232998/energy-stocks-tank-pulling-down-sharemarket-as-investors-eye-growth

Talking $1 - $1.5 Billion, maybe more, and all that capital required with no reasonable prospect of a profit in the foreseeable future. Hmmm, Good luck with that.

Some things just defy anything you've ever learnt about investing, like how on earth can this have maintained a SP above a few 10's of cents? Anyway, don't invest in something you don't understand, and I certainly don't understand how this SP has anti-gravity.

[Beagle]

Some things just defy anything you've ever learnt about investing, like how on earth can this have maintained a SP above a few 10's of cents? Anyway, don't invest in something you don't understand, and I certainly don't understand how this SP has anti-gravity.

Beggars belief...it really does.

I see this pending capital raise, not really as investing per se but as little more than a massive social welfare payment to keep vital transport infrastructure running to save the airline from going broke. By doing so the Govt will do okay out of it as the economy continues to grow so their investment generates a great indirect return, (not to forget the hundreds of millions they get each year from GST / PAYE from the company as well), but quite frankly minority shareholders appear to be on a hiding to absolutely nothing.

This may seem harsh but in my opinion it would be better if the Govt was honest enough to call this first capital raise round a charitable donation and then at least people would get 33 cents back in the dollar with their tax return.

In my opinion there's a modest chance the next capital raise, (subsequent to the one planned for later this year), could have the realistic prospect of being called an investment in the traditional sense of the word, albeit an extremely high risk one.

A LOT of RED INK to be spilled when they report their half year results later this month. It will be fascinating reading the corporate spin they try and put on things for the capital raise.

[Waltzing]

Our little private team dumped back at 2 for a loss last march april.

Its a partial force majeure and unfortunately there are no special provisions for Air Lines being backed by reserve banks to buy bonds.

No bank of Japan to come to the rescue.

There is no plan here , not from management, not from government and not from the market.

Its a crash landing and its about to come out of the clouds and approach the runway fast.

The problem is far greater than Air its the tourist towns it feeds into.

Grim winter approaching if something is not done. And that something needs to come in new form of targeted QE into public and private bonds markets and there is no plans in the cupboard.

MR O offered to develop new funding structures back in april but nothing came from government to take it up.

Now they are going to see what the ramifications are.

There is no choice now but to extend loans direct from government not just for AIR.

Excuse the typos , its typed on another keyboard, not looking.

[kuotadriver]

A320 to ATR, yes I have that 1st hand sorry, the offer is on the table and was rejected

What do you mean by "the offer is on the table"? They haven't even offered positions back to all of the redundant ATR pilots yet.

[Dassets]

Prob higher up the last on first off priority, from what I understand type experience does not matter

[kuotadriver]

Prob higher up the last on first off priority, from what I understand type experience does not matter

Separate lists, so that is irrelevant. Be great if people like you would quit spraying idiotic misinformation all over the internet.

[777]

Separate lists, so that is irrelevant. Be great if people like you would quit spraying idiotic misinformation all over the internet.

Well said kuota. He/she is in some sort of dreamland.

[nztx]

See the little Green Mouthpiece continuing on her counter productive crusade on Tele tonight ... ;)

If Rome was burning, these twits would probably crawl out wondering what had happened after everything had
been levelled .. ;)

[biker]

Prob higher up the last on first off priority, from what I understand type experience does not matter

Actually Dassets, I don’t think you understand very much on this subject. Why post jumbled misinformation?

[Blue Skies]

Yet another error from AIR management, allowing highest risk flight crews staying in central city hotel (really?) to leave the hotel to exercise & not even telling the Ministry of Health who thought they were put in a hotel out at Manukau near the airport, about it.
One would assume after all their discussions with, & information put out by the MoH, senior AIR management could be trusted to manage their high risk flight crews properly without having to be closely monitored for common sense.
Maybe management need to get some advice from the supermarkets or the local dairy around safe practices!

[causecelebre]

Yet another error from AIR management, allowing highest risk flight crews staying in central city hotel (really?) to leave the hotel to exercise & not even telling the Ministry of Health who thought they were put in a hotel out at Manukau near the airport, about it.
One would assume after all their discussions with, & information put out by the MoH, senior AIR management could be trusted to manage their high risk flight crews properly without having to be closely monitored for common sense.
Maybe management need to get some advice from the supermarkets or the local dairy around safe practices!

It's ok now. They are building gyms in the hotels for them now :-/

Air NZ Chief operating officer quote: "They were [wearing] PPE on the aircraft and so the risk I think is low and again we do believe following the guidance from the Ministry of Health is what we're here to do."

Well, that makes me fell better....

[Beagle]

No question there's a very hard landing coming up when they report next week. I hope shareholders have their seat belts very firmly fastened and are ready to dip into their pockets in a major way for a substantial capital raise at a deeply discounted price. I think they need to raise ~ $1.5 Billion in this first capital raise and something like a 2:1 at 75 cents underwritten by the Govt is on the cards.

In my opinion there's a very real chance shareholders can expect a similar sized capital raise in 2-3 years time "dressed up" as funding growth opportunities, (AKA fixing the balance sheet from FY21 to FY23 losses).

[Getty]

Rough ruff.

I'm in your pack Beagle.

One would have to be barking mad to be paying $1.58.

[Dassets]

I am at 1.8bil at 50cps. Why? Cash requirements for next 18 months, 900m of govt loan converted, 900m from minorities for cash. That gets the directors and auditors over the insolvency and going concern issue. Even then I think the auditors will tag the FY accounts.

[Beagle]

One other interesting twist to the whole solvency question is the Commerce commission are looking for a law change to make all future tickets issued fully refundable and bring airline operations here into line with best practice overseas. This possible pending law change could potentially add about another billion to their capital requirements at some point in the future.

I think those holding at $1.58 are "incredibly brave"...and there are a range of far less polite adjectives.

[nztx]

I'm interested in how many flying birds they going to have on the books that haven't been badly written down
or out completely after being parked up in the Scrapper's yards .. ;)

At this rate when things open up, any sort of new Mickey Mouse Airline could start up and have more
birds in the Air than the challenged Robertson Air .. ;)

[nztx]

One other interesting twist to the whole solvency question is the Commerce commission are looking for a law change to make all future tickets issued fully refundable and bring airline operations here into line with best practice overseas. This possible pending law change could potentially add about another billion to their capital requirements at some point in the future.

I think those holding at $1.58 are "incredibly brave"...and there are a range of far less polite adjectives.


Not a worry Sir -- just have less than a handful left .. conveniently retained for entertainment value & to say have an arm in the game .. in case ;)

[Blue Skies]

One other interesting twist to the whole solvency question is the Commerce commission are looking for a law change to make all future tickets issued fully refundable and bring airline operations here into line with best practice overseas. This possible pending law change could potentially add about another billion to their capital requirements at some point in the future.

I think those holding at $1.58 are "incredibly brave"...and there are a range of far less polite adjectives.


Just had to cancel 2 return tickets for family travel this week & the online credit is only to 30 June. We will probably use this but can imagine there will be a real bun fight if some unable through no fault of their own, unable to use the credits before they expire. Doesn't seem reasonable & as you say a law change could add significantly to their problems.
I see SP currently up at 160 despite this new lockdown causing further major disruption. Seems to be a complete disconnect from reality.

[Getty]

Could be a looming takeover from Underground Airlines.

[nztx]

Could be a looming takeover from Underground Airlines.



Shall we recruit Ewan to look after the job ? ;)

He deserves a bit better run another time .. ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

I am at 1.8bil at 50cps. Why? Cash requirements for next 18 months, 900m of govt loan converted, 900m from minorities for cash. That gets the directors and auditors over the insolvency and going concern issue. Even then I think the auditors will tag the FY accounts.

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $110m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

[nztx]

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $100m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.



but in today's market & times -- doesn't that translate into another 26.9% upside in SP like sailing on fresh air ? ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

but in today's market & times -- doesn't that translate into another 26.9% upside in SP like sailing on fresh air ? ;)

No doubt some will look at it as a bonanza......govt owned, won't go bust, cheap shares, planes in the sky, it'll come back, who cares about financials......

[Beagle]

Shall we recruit Ewan to look after the job ? ;)

He deserves a bit better run another time .. ;)

Problem solved, what could possibly go wrong under his leadership ;)

Blue Skies - That's a surprisingly miserable timeframe to use your credit. I thought they extended credits another year ?

[Dassets]

By the time the cap raise will be completed the loan all but used.

[Beagle]

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $100m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

That's really ugly. With what effectively amounts to a freeze on capex that suggest losses of circa $75m cash a month at the mid point and with their annual depreciation bill at ~ $600m another $50m a month for depreciation, total of $125m a month which suggests next weeks half year loss could be an absolute shocker...something like $750m before any further extraordinary losses, restructuring or further aircraft write-down's.

I would think a capital raise announcement has to be made contemporaneously with a loss of that magnitude as otherwise going forward they're ostensibly trading while insolvent.

[Zaphod]

Just had to cancel 2 return tickets for family travel this week & the online credit is only to 30 June. We will probably use this but can imagine there will be a real bun fight if some unable through no fault of their own, unable to use the credits before they expire. Doesn't seem reasonable & as you say a law change could add significantly to their problems.
I see SP currently up at 160 despite this new lockdown causing further major disruption. Seems to be a complete disconnect from reality.

According to the official guideline we received via email, if a cancellation was COVID related then you have until June 2022 to use the credits to book replacement flights which can occur up until June 2023. Does that concur with what you were sent? If not, it would be interesting know why it now differs.

[Jaa]

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $100m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

Rational thoughts in the AIR thread, always a nice change. I suspect that monthly loss has been declining month on month as their cost saving initiatives add up and revenue increased through the peak flying season.

People continuously forget that while Air NZ is an international airline, the majority of its profits are earned flying domestically. This business is 70-80% in tact. Unlike many of their competitors which is a huge competitive advantage.

I said it before and I will say it again, $1b rights issue at $1 a share.

[xp04]

Was flying AKL to CHC and AKL to ZQN during last month. On all occasions planes were full.

[Blue Skies]

Problem solved, what could possibly go wrong under his leadership ;)

Blue Skies - That's a surprisingly miserable timeframe to use your credit. I thought they extended credits another year ?


Apologies Beagle, you & Zaphod are right, the Covid credit extended to June 2022. On the phone call I didn't catch the 2022.

[Blue Skies]

Does anyone know if the money received for flights which are cancelled due to Covid and credited for future travel, is accounted for when received or not until the service is provided?
i.e. is it a current credit but a future debt?
I remember the frequent flyer rewards program became a huge headache for airlines in the US & possibly elsewhere, when they had to be added to the balance sheet as a debt until the service was provided.

[Sideshow Bob]

Was flying AKL to CHC and AKL to ZQN during last month. On all occasions planes were full.


December op stats - down from 85% last year to 81% passenger load factor. Xmas and all that expect would drive alot. Financial YTD 76.4%, down from 84.8%

339506.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/366878/339506.pdf)

But Financial YTD:

- Passengers carried 55% down from previous year
- Revenue Passenger Km's 86% down from previous year
- Available Seat Km's 81% down from previous year
- Passenger load factor - 53.7% down from 84.3%

Govt airfreight scheme is another form of Govt prop-up for them.....

[xp04]

December op stats - down from 85% last year to 81% passenger load factor. Xmas and all that expect would drive alot. Financial YTD 76.4%, down from 84.8%

339506.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/366878/339506.pdf)

But Financial YTD:

- Passengers carried 55% down from previous year
- Revenue Passenger Km's 86% down from previous year
- Available Seat Km's 81% down from previous year
- Passenger load factor - 53.7% down from 84.3%

Govt airfreight scheme is another form of Govt prop-up for them.....

We did not have Covid in December 2019, did we? Domestic numbers do not look that dramatic

[Beagle]

December op stats - down from 85% last year to 81% passenger load factor. Xmas and all that expect would drive alot. Financial YTD 76.4%, down from 84.8%

339506.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/366878/339506.pdf)

But Financial YTD:

- Passengers carried 55% down from previous year
- Revenue Passenger Km's 86% down from previous year
- Available Seat Km's 81% down from previous year
- Passenger load factor - 53.7% down from 84.3%

Govt airfreight scheme is another form of Govt prop-up for them.....

That's a real shocker.

[nztx]

Anyone looking at forward short term prospects & taking up any AIR Cap Raise rights would
possibly need to get a new Shrink for their current Shrink .. ;)

[Waltzing]

flying the new air bus not the AIR 787 going back to copenhagen.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-nz-needs-to-raise-15-billion-in-capital-analyst-forecasts/4IPRW6PIPE2R6GFNB5I6BW5TEA/ Paywalled
Air New Zealand would need to raise as much as $1.5 billion to repay the Government loan, top-up working capital and cover the cash it needs to keep going until the border reopens. That's the base case of analysts at investment bank Jarden who have a sell rating on the national carrier's shares.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-nz-needs-to-raise-15-billion-in-capital-analyst-forecasts/4IPRW6PIPE2R6GFNB5I6BW5TEA/ Paywalled
Air New Zealand would need to raise as much as $1.5 billion to repay the Government loan, top-up working capital and cover the cash it needs to keep going until the border reopens. That's the base case of analysts at investment bank Jarden who have a sell rating on the national carrier's shares.

Wowee... that is about as much as its market cap I believe... Hopefully they can keep the share price at incredibly lofty height it is currently at... 1 for 1 raise coming?

[Waltzing]

Can they put anymore debt on the balance sheet MR B? Cap raise now the only option as they are all as they say when surfing a "Dumper" and not a wave to catch.

[Beagle]

Not sure how anyone can build an investment case at anything above the book value of the assets, (especially with some of the aircraft's valuations seriously in question).
Book value was $1,01 as at balance date but will be considerably lower when they report next week.
This suggests to me something like a 2:1 capital raise at somewhere around 75 cents is on the cards. Holders at $1.60 are ostensibly compelled to participate unless they accept a massive dilution in their shareholding.

No they can't put any more debt on their balance sheet mate...a massive capital raise is definitely imminent.

[Marilyn Munroe]

TRIGGER WARNING: Some opinions in this post may not offend some people.

I am disappointed Grant Robertson has blindly committed the taxpayer to financially rescue Air New Zealand without taking steps to reduce the taxpayers open guarantee of rescue next time the airline crashes and burns financially.

We know these crashes will come as they have happened in the past. Ansett 9/11 global financial crisis and currently Wuhan Flu.

Mr Roberson needs to be mindful the source of this rescue money is taxpayers who may sweat in shearing sheds or wipe residents bottoms in rest homes to provide him with it. Mr Robertson needs to be careful with their hard earned money.

Writing Air New Zealand blank cheques for ever is not a responsible use of this money.

I accept there needs to be some form of support for Air New Zealand as a policy which means members of parliament have to take the bus to visit their electorates in politically untenable.

I propose Air New Zealand in the future is limited to the operation of propeller aircraft and single isle jets. This means Air New Zealand's operations will be limited to domestic, South West Pacific and Australia. When the next crash comes the taxpayers liability will be reduced.

If Air New Zealand wishes to operate long range multi isle aircraft it must be done in a separate operation run at arms length with the explicit understanding the taxpayer is not on the hook.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Baa_Baa]

Has anyone done the maths on the total return to shareholders (realised - dividends + unrealised - capital gains) over the past 20 years since the government buyin to 82% during the big crash 2001? Would be interesting to know whether the government investment overall is above or under water - to-date.

[Beagle]

Has anyone done the maths on the total return to shareholders (realised - dividends + unrealised - capital gains) over the past 20 years since the government buyin to 82% during the big crash 2001? Would be interesting to know whether the government investment overall is above or under water - to-date.

From memory one of the brokers did the maths and it was eight point something percent before Covid hit. That's just the direct return. One also has to consider the hundreds of millions they get back in PAYE and GST every single year and the economic benefits the regions get that would not otherwise be served by a company such as Jetstar, e.g. Hokitika.

All that said, I think Marilyn has a point...however on the other hand if the Govt can keep extracting all the direct and indirect benefits and socialize some of the losses every time a crisis happens one could equally make the case the Govt can't lose.

[winner69]

Has anyone done the maths on the total return to shareholders (realised - dividends + unrealised - capital gains) over the past 20 years since the government buyin to 82% during the big crash 2001? Would be interesting to know whether the government investment overall is above or under water - to-date.

Heaps

Milford did this a few years ago but numbers would have improved up to this year

https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

[Baa_Baa]

From memory one of the brokers did the maths and it was eight point something percent before Covid hit. That's just the direct return. One also has to consider the hundreds of millions they get back in PAYE and GST every single year and the economic benefits the regions get that would not otherwise be served by a company such as Jetstar, e.g. Hokitika.

All that said, I think Marilyn has a point...however on the other hand if the Govt can keep extracting all the direct and indirect benefits and socialize some of the losses every time a crisis happens one could equally make the case the Govt can't lose.

So on face value the government has made a good investment by nationalising the airline. Bear in mind the recent $900m is a loan at exorbitant interest rates - not a capital gift, so again the government seems to have done a good deal for tax payers. I think the SP got down to 21 cents in 2001, or something like that? What a good buy that would be knowing the anchor shareholder would be the government. Wonder if it will get down that low again this time.

[Baa_Baa]

Heaps

Milford did this a few years ago but numbers would have improved up to this year

https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

Thanks for that Winner, pretty impressive returns, especially when you see the split between capital and loans, then payouts and capital gains. As beagle says, all that other income from PAYE, GST. Seems that any rights issue or cap raise is pretty much guaranteed with the government as a backstop to pickup any shortfall, one way or another. Only question really is the price.

[Beagle]

So on face value the government has made a good investment by nationalising the airline. Bear in mind the recent $900m is a loan at exorbitant interest rates - not a capital gift, so again the government seems to have done a good deal for tax payers. I think the SP got down to 21 cents in 2001, or something like that? What a good buy that would be knowing the anchor shareholder would be the government. Wonder if it will get down that low again this time.

You have an excellent memory, I believe that's exactly how low it went. Predicting the future is an inexact science at the best of times but I think its safe to say that shareholders are metaphorically standing on the runway in the flightpath of an approaching Dreamliner which is about to have an extremely hard landing. I would suggest the outcome for minority shareholders will be anything but a "Dream" experience ;)

[Baa_Baa]

You have an excellent memory, I believe that's exactly how low it went. Predicting the future is an inexact science at the best of times but I think its safe to say that shareholders are metaphorically standing on the runway in the flightpath of an approaching Dreamliner which is about to have an extremely hard landing. I would suggest the outcome for minority shareholders will be anything but a "Dream" experience ;)

For sure, building a case for existing shareholders to take out their capital now (sell) and wait for the bargains later (buy).

[777]

So on face value the government has made a good investment by nationalising the airline. Bear in mind the recent $900m is a loan at exorbitant interest rates - not a capital gift, so again the government seems to have done a good deal for tax payers. I think the SP got down to 21 cents in 2001, or something like that? What a good buy that would be knowing the anchor shareholder would be the government. Wonder if it will get down that low again this time.

Was there not a share consolidation after that? 1 for 5 if I remember correctly. This would have made that 21c about $1.
Twenty years can pay havoc with memory though.

Memory was correct.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-nz-announces-five-for-one-share-consolidation/ITNGIRFQUGG6EPKL4ITN7KUBXU/

[Waltzing]

If MR B is correct and the percentage rate must be high. What will the SHAS holders do and will it have a spill over to other stocks on their investing mind set once this plane lands, hard landing i suspect.

many wont have heard of a cap raise until now.

[Beagle]

Not something anyone wants to see when they pay extra for their window seat :scared: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/124319513/explosive-engine-failure-spurs-boeing-777-groundings-in-us-japan
Has AIR got any of those engines on their 777's ? Does it really matter if all their 777's are ostensibly nearly worthless ?

[777]

Has AIR got any of those engines on their 777's ? Does it really matter if all their 777's are ostensibly nearly worthless ?

No. All GE's. Not much value at present but 12-18 months from now they won't have enough of them.

[Habits]

If MR B is correct and the percentage rate must be high. What will the SHAS holders do and will it have a spill over to other stocks on their investing mind set once this plane lands, hard landing i suspect.

many wont have heard of a cap raise until now.

I mentioned capital raise to my 18yo and was news to her.

[Waltzing]

"I mentioned capital raise to my 18yo and was news to her."

well yes and there is the letter from the Finance Minister which is a very nice letter......

I wonder what MR B has say about that lovely letter?

The letter almost said "fait " accompli...

I think that special bond called the going japanese should have been created and then hedged by a bitcoin purchase and the reserve bank could have been sitting pretty like Telsa.

Thank you Mr B...

been practising my conjugation in french at weekends "fait"!

[Beagle]

No. All GE's. Not much value at present but 12-18 months from now they won't have enough of them.

Greg Foran is widely reported as saying he thinks it might be a decade before travel demand fully recovers to pre-Covid 19 level's.

Letter of intent suggests a capital raise is a fait accompli. They simply have to raise capital to alleviate balance sheet pressure.

[Baa_Baa]

Greg Foran is widely reported as saying he thinks it might be a decade before travel demand fully recovers to pre-Covid 19 level's.

Letter of intent suggests a capital raise is a fait accompli. They simply have to raise capital to alleviate balance sheet pressure.

And defying any logic or investment reasoning, the share price remains robust.

Sometimes it’s just better to be an observer than a participant. This is one of those times imo

[Beagle]

And defying any logic or investment reasoning, the share price remains robust.

Sometimes it’s just better to be an observer than a participant. This is one of those times imo

Agreed, I have no intention whatsoever at this stage. I think Greg Foran is right and demand recovery will be at a glacial pace. I can't even get Mrs B onto a domestic flight.

[Waltzing]

french lesson from Mr B....thanks..

[trader_jackson]

So AIR has already drawn down $350m from the high interest government loan?
And as for the rest of the results, they are terrible, as expected - just crazy how the share price has been kept at hugely elevated levels

[winner69]

...and still sitting on $1.1 billion of 'Revenue in Advance'....ie prepaid fares including all the credits

One day this must hurt them

[Dassets]

So $45-55m cash burn going forward for rest of financial year, then they say cash burn will actually increase!! That includes the govt propping up cargo. They say they have used up over $1bil since the start of this. Over the next 12 months say they will use up say $550m based on low estimate (ignoring the signal of an increase) to say $800m using $55m per month and increasing after end of FY. This is insane.

[nztx]

So $45-55m cash burn going forward for rest of financial year, then they say cash burn will actually increase!! That includes the govt propping up cargo. They say they have used up over $1bil since the start of this. Over the next 12 months say they will use up say $550m based on low estimate (ignoring the signal of an increase) to say $800m using $55m per month and increasing after end of FY. This is insane.


Yes .. Ouch - a case of Govt having/keeping major NZ Airline or not .. IMO

What is holding the SP up there ? Cant people read or guess what's coming up ? ;)

[causecelebre]

..... deleted

[Dassets]

When the price of a new 787-9 is close to USD$300m these guys really can't even afford to pay for 1 new aircraft. What happens in 2 years when the current fleet is another 2 years(10% of life) down the track. It is impossible to see these guys returning to profit for at least 2 years from now. In that time they will burn over $1bil(ignoring having to refund tickets). How are they proposing to pay for the 8 787-10(circa USD$2.5Bil or NZD$3.5 billion) starting to be delivered next year??? Debt? Yeah go find that funder!

[nztx]

When the price of a new 787-9 is close to USD$300m these guys really can't even afford to pay for 1 new aircraft. What happens in 2 years when the current fleet is another 2 years(10% of life) down the track. It is impossible to see these guys returning to profit for at least 2 years from now. In that time they will burn over $1bil(ignoring having to refund tickets). How are they proposing to pay for the 8 787-10(circa USD$2.5Bil or NZD$3.5 billion) starting to be delivered next year??? Debt? Yeah go find that funder!


there would probably be a fair bundle of other Airlines in the same basketcase IMO ..

[Beagle]

I think they need to raise at least $1.5 Billion in this first tranche and probably another similar amount in 2 years time. Completely uninvest-able for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

[Stranger_Danger]

I think they need to raise at least $1.5 Billion in this first tranche and probably another similar amount in 2 years time. Completely uninvest-able for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

Blah blah vital national infrastructure, Government backed, brand name everyone knows etc etc....so say the Sharesies people.

I've tried to mention that the same description applies to WINZ and would they buy shares in that, but it pretty much falls on deaf ears.

[Waltzing]

"pretty much falls on deaf ears."

great it will be a great trade soon after they all pay for there cap raise or hopefully they ignore it ....

it could be a great trade after cap raise no 1..

trade the SHAS

we call them the SHAS people .

[huxley]

This is so accurate. I’ve heard so many people, who have started speculating on shares since March 2020, saying some variation of that. They think because the govt. may save the airline, that they’ll also save the existing shareholders. Even in response to the capital raise announcement I’ve heard them phrase it like the govt is baling out their interests as a shareholder, with apparently zero appreciation that they’ll soon be diluted to oblivion :) :(

[Waltzing]

we are waiting not to trade the investment.

we are waiting to trade the SHAS.

[nztx]

Are WINZ offering a Special benefit for the boys & girls being brave & investing a few pennies in Robertson (Sometimes) AIR ? ;)

They probably should, as it may not end well anytime soon .. ;)

The whole experience is likely to be life threatening, emotionally damaging & seriously hazardous in any number of ways , whichever way one would be forced to very bravely look at it .. ;)

[Waltzing]

pennies...

1.2 million bought today...

it looks like they will keep buying after the cap raise..

the share price will go up... buy after the raise and the price slumps for a SHORT TIME...

trade the SHAS

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealand-ceo-greg-foran-can-see-light-at-the-end-of-the-covid-tunnel/O2ZYWUWYW4QQBOMBTR6BI7DYXU/ Paywalled
Deep in discussions with the Govt regarding the capital raise.

[Waltzing]

The SHAS dont follow Mr B.... thank goodness for that else they wouldnt be a trade.

In fact im sure the SHAS dont read this forum...

Damn it the global tourism stocks are rallying years ahead of when they should...:eek2:

more money coming from the government in the press today..

[Beagle]

The SHAS dont follow Mr B.... thank goodness for that else they wouldnt be a trade.

In fact im sure the SHAS dont read this forum...

Damn it the global tourism stocks are rallying years ahead of when they should...:eek2:

more money coming from the government in the press today..

Looking at the share prices of the cruise lines, hoteliers and overseas airlines I think that's exactly what's happening.

Doubt Mrs B and I will be engaging in international travel anytime in the foreseeable future. We had a nice suite booked for a cruise to Fiji last September...doubt that will be rebooked anytime soon.

[James108]

I will be booking an international trip as soon as I can as will many of my family/friends. I think international travel will bounce back ALOT faster than the 10 years put forward by Foran. And I would bet on it by buying AIR shares if I didn’t think they were already priced for a quick bounce back (and then some..).

[Waltzing]

there will still be time to buy more travel shares...cash burns are still negative..

perhaps Mr B might cruise the sounds of the south island instead, or the south island lakes.

Autumn is the fabulous season in the cloudy isles.

[BlackPeter]

Looking at the share prices of the cruise lines, hoteliers and overseas airlines I think that's exactly what's happening.

Doubt Mrs B and I will be engaging in international travel anytime in the foreseeable future. We had a nice suite booked for a cruise to Fiji last September...doubt that will be rebooked anytime soon.

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

[winner69]

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

Tou get that other virus -- norovirus

[BlackPeter]

I will be booking an international trip as soon as I can as will many of my family/friends. I think international travel will bounce back ALOT faster than the 10 years put forward by Foran. And I would bet on it by buying AIR shares if I didn’t think they were already priced for a quick bounce back (and then some..).

Not so sure .... while I think that some touristic activities will recover faster (see post above) - airlines (and particular Air New Zealand) will take a bit longer to recover (and the new normal might anyway be slimmer than the old one). Remember - less need to go on business trips for meetings and conferences - everybody now knows how to operate zoom :). As well - our government intends to drastically reduce immigration and make it much more uncertain for applicants - this will reduce flights (less immigrants equals as well less visitors) as well as mass tourism to NZ.

I do see a row of meagre years coming up for our national carrier, but while I am sure the taxpayer (hey, that's us) will bail them out financially, but not the shareholders.

[Jaa]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.


We maintain our NZD 2.00 fair value estimate for shares in no-moat Air New Zealand following the release of interim fiscal 2021 results.

...

Despite near-term earnings pressure, we expect Air New Zealand will be able to weather the storm, particularly following the NZD 900 million debt funding agreement with the New Zealand government, Air New Zealand's majority shareholder. The airline has drawn on the NZD 900 million facility, but we doubt it will use the entire balance, as we currently forecast an equity raise of NZD 600 million before the end of fiscal 2021.

...

But we do forecast dividends resuming in fiscal 2023.


Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

[Poet]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.



Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

I agree there will be a short term sugar surge once borders open

But don't overlook the fact that the new baseline international passenger volumes (ie post covid) might be something like 20% lower than pre-covid due to the likelihood that around that percentage of the population may not be vaccinated (by choice) and may as a consequence, be prohibited from international travel

[Jaa]

I agree there will be a short term sugar surge once borders open

But don't overlook the fact that the new baseline international passenger volumes (ie post covid) might be something like 20% lower than pre-covid due to the likelihood that around that percentage of the population may not be vaccinated (by choice) and may as a consequence, be prohibited from international travel

There's no way to tell if someone has been vaccinated, any certificates or whatever can easily be faked. Heck people in China are already faking (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56080092) actual COVID vaccines. Other countries like Indonesia are vaccinating with unproven/less effective vaccines. Then there are the variants both current and future.

Travel restrictions will lift slowly country by country when cases credibly reach 0 or near 0. Air NZ only really needs this to happen in Australia and the Pacific to move back to profitability. Otherwise when NZ has completed its own vaccination program which is less than a year away.

[Waltzing]

No doubt demand will be high if health passports are in use but travel to some destinations will be much lower for a while.. some saying 2022 to 2033 until vaccines are world wide although roll out in us is ramping up fast..

AIR is definitely a trade after cap raise.

" back to profitability"

with the fleet size purchased unless there has cancellations in forward purchases orders NPAT wont look good just based on NZ AUS PAS...

what is the fleet size parked and costs

[Beagle]

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?

[Waltzing]

im sure tis govt will help pacific with vaccines... new focus on local foreign policy and of course NZ will lead the pacific in peace talks with any big bullies...new sharing caring approach...

[nztx]

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?


China probably has the good General tucked under their wing for as much as Fiji can consume .. ;)

[BlackPeter]

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?

Well, maybe the cruise industry needs to adapt their destinations. Pretty sure countries like e.g. Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, and many other South Sea destinations but as well places like Antarctica will be safe for cruising after the first vaccination sweep:):

[iceman]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.



Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

Agree with much of your post Jaa but have a huge concern about how slow NZ is with vaccinations. While much of Europe and USA are aiming to have herd immunity through vaccinations by Q3 this year which will release a lot of the pent up travel demand, NZ has announced it will be 12 months from now that we have such herd immunity and borders will stay closed meanwhile. So none of the pent up demand will travel to NZ next summer potentially destroying a lot of tourist businesses and possibly whole towns like Queenstown, Akaroa, Franz Josef, Te Anau just to name a few that are really struggling

[BlackPeter]

Agree with much of your post Jaa but have a huge concern about how slow NZ is with vaccinations. While much of Europe and USA are aiming to have herd immunity through vaccinations by Q3 this year which will release a lot of the pent up travel demand, NZ has announced it will be 12 months from now that we have such herd immunity and borders will stay closed meanwhile. So none of the pent up demand will travel to NZ next summer potentially destroying a lot of tourist businesses and possibly whole towns like Queenstown, Akaroa, Franz Josef, Te Anau just to name a few that are really struggling

Probably not the right thread for this subject, but I tend to agree. It appears that government and other xenophobes enjoy the locked borders and want to keep them closed in perpetuity. While they drag the chain on vaccinations they can rethink (think minimize) both future tourism as well as any future immigration.

[iceman]

I think this subject is highly relevant to AIR BlackPeter

[BlackPeter]

I think this subject is highly relevant to AIR BlackPeter

You are right ... the outcome of these policies (or is it more the nationalist / racist / arrogant attitude which shows through in them) is clearly highly relevant (and highly damaging) for AIR, but it is as well highly relevant for any tourism company, for our schools and universities as well as our general work culture and the cultural diversity we used to enjoy. Many of our high tech companies are absolutely dependent on the free flow of minds - and government does whatever they can to stop this flow in the long run using Covid as a convenient excuse.

Watching this government turning New Zealand from an open and welcoming society into a bastion of xenophobes (no visitors, please, we are New Zealanders ...) might suit the NZ First clients (which funnily are not even anymore part of the government), but it will damage New Zealand's economy, culture and standing in the world. Better we stem this process soon - the current thoughts on severely curbing immigration and tourism are in my view nuts.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Kz_ISc0lc Some people have been busy enjoying the peace and solitude of the Fiordland national park without hordes of tourists...lucky chaps.
Interesting new boat design. I was born down that way and grew up enjoying the area without hordes of tourists. Putting labels on people just because they don't especially like millions of people coming here and crowding out our wilderness isn't cool. Last time we were in Te Anua you couldn't move for the vast numbers of tourist buses coming through.

[Blue Skies]

You are right ... the outcome of these policies (or is it more the nationalist / racist / arrogant attitude which shows through in them) is clearly highly relevant (and highly damaging) for AIR, but it is as well highly relevant for any tourism company, for our schools and universities as well as our general work culture and the cultural diversity we used to enjoy. Many of our high tech companies are absolutely dependent on the free flow of minds - and government does whatever they can to stop this flow in the long run using Covid as a convenient excuse.

Watching this government turning New Zealand from an open and welcoming society into a bastion of xenophobes (no visitors, please, we are New Zealanders ...) might suit the NZ First clients (which funnily are not even anymore part of the government), but it will damage New Zealand's economy, culture and standing in the world. Better we stem this process soon - the current thoughts on severely curbing immigration and tourism are in my view nuts.


Let me get this right, you're saying this govt is a, nationalist (meaning?) racist, xenophobic government using Covid as a convenient excuse to implement these policies & close down the free flow of minds/thought ?
And NZ's remarkable achievement of eradicating Covid from our country & therefore as a gateway into the Pacific Island nations, causing immense suffering and collapsing health systems in both, will damage NZ's standing in the world?

Hmm..., I'ld have to say that's not a commonly help perspective.

[Beagle]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/02/tourism-industry-doing-better-in-places-kiwis-can-drive-not-so-good-if-they-have-to-fly-report.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+27 +February+2021

No surprise that Kiwi's in general are more comfortable driving than flying and that's certainly how Mrs B and I feel too.

[Blue Skies]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/02/tourism-industry-doing-better-in-places-kiwis-can-drive-not-so-good-if-they-have-to-fly-report.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+27 +February+2021

No surprise that Kiwi's in general are more comfortable driving than flying and that's certainly how Mrs B and I feel too.


Back in level 3 in Auckland, just when we thought about flying down for a brief holiday to the South Island.
Already got one lot of credits for Covid cancelled flights, can do without any more.

[Beagle]

Back in level 3 in Auckland, just when we thought about flying down for a brief holiday to the South Island.
Already got one lot of credits for Covid cancelled flights, can do without any more.

We very nearly booked a trip to Invercargill for this week to do a factory tour at Stabicraft boats and sea trial of that boat I posted a link for above. In hindsight I am very pleased Mrs B was very reluctant to fly.