AIR - Air NZ.

[Dassets]

Might also slow down the ridiculous ALPA demands for a 6 percent payrise for.the pilots, "hey it is in our contract". Maybe the pilots should get their medicals redone because it appears they are both blind and tone deaf. As I have said it is the country's most expensive social welfare scheme and about to get more so.

The addition of the unionist to the board well what can be said.

I also won't say what was said about a suggestion to waive the rise to allow some of the let go pilots back on.

BTW to the poster who said last time that I was probably jealous because I had a long harbored unfilfilled ambition to be an airline pilot, that was a strange and untrue comment.

[mikelee]

when are we going to see some decent inflight offerings? flew the AKL-WLG sector recently and not impressed with what's on offer after 6pm

[Beagle]

Might also slow down the ridiculous ALPA demands for a 6 percent payrise for.the pilots, "hey it is in our contract". Maybe the pilots should get their medicals redone because it appears they are both blind and tone deaf. As I have said it is the country's most expensive social welfare scheme and about to get more so.

The addition of the unionist to the board well what can be said.

I also won't say what was said about a suggestion to waive the rise to allow some of the let go pilots back on.

BTW to the poster who said last time that I was probably jealous because I had a long harbored unfilfilled ambition to be an airline pilot, that was a strange and untrue comment.

LOL, well said.

[Sideshow Bob]

Update on Tasman impact to earnings and liquidity - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/376670)

Futher drawdowns on Govt loan coming.

Still no cap raise developments......??

[BlackPeter]

Update on Tasman impact to earnings and liquidity - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/376670)

Futher drawdowns on Govt loan coming.

Still no cap raise developments......??

Oh dear, this is a down grade :scared:, isn't it? Though - given that the losses increase one could call it as well an upgrade :t_up:

I recon somebody is playing chicken - and it will be the retail shareholders who will be asked to foot the bill. Dilution will be terrible.

[Getty]

$530M loss signaled.

Potential New investors stay grounded.

Existing investors must keep seatbelts on, much turbulence ahead!

If vacating seat, do not block the emergency Exits!

[winner69]

Cashflow positive they say

That’s good

[Sideshow Bob]

Cashflow positive they say

That’s good

As they say, Always look on the bright side of life, eh Winner.

[Sideshow Bob]

Oh dear, this is a down grade :scared:, isn't it? Though - given that the losses increase one could call it as well an upgrade :t_up:

I recon somebody is playing chicken - and it will be the retail shareholders who will be asked to foot the bill. Dilution will be terrible.

Not like retail shareholders can't say they were warned. Hopefully for any holders it doesn't turn into 1987 for them, and turn them off for life.

[BlackPeter]

Cashflow positive they say

That’s good

True - and hey, lets not worry about the repayment of the deferred PAYE payments, shall we? I guess 2022 is still a long way away - lots of good things can happen until then :):

Oops - didn't government just let slip that vaccinations will now go into Q1 2022? No problem - people will buy the tickets even if they are still handcuffed to mother New Zealand, won't they?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Oh dear, this is a down grade :scared:, isn't it? Though - given that the losses increase one could call it as well an upgrade :t_up:

I recon somebody is playing chicken - and it will be the retail shareholders who will be asked to foot the bill. Dilution will be terrible.

I don't feel for the retail holders. I do feel for us taxpayers though.

[Getty]

I don't feel for the retail holders. I do feel for us taxpayers though.

Flying kites used to be a cheap pastime....

[Arbroath]

I don't feel for the retail holders. I do feel for us taxpayers though.

A couple of questions for holders to consider....

1. What month, and year, will AIR raise equity? and
2. How much and at what price?

My guesses are March 2022 and $1b+ at 50 cents a share...right now I'd say they are basically insolvent without the Govt so as a taxpayer I'll be grumpy if the capital raise does not result in significant dilution of existing holders. Govt should go back to 80%+ and then rehabilitate the business over 3-5 years before reducing their stake again and making a solid gain for taxpayers.

[Beagle]

Heard whispers they're still trying to get this capital raise done soon. So losses upgraded by another $80m... Hmmm

[Sideshow Bob]

Heard whispers they're still trying to get this capital raise done soon. So losses upgraded by another $80m... Hmmm

Don't think there has been anything since they announced September this year? Less than 2 months to complete.

Wasn't the CFO staying around until the capital raise is done??

Air New Zealand capital raise deferred - Media releases | Air New Zealand (https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2021-airnz-capital-raise-deferred)

[Beagle]

Don't think there has been anything since they announced September this year? Less than 2 months to complete.

Wasn't the CFO staying around until the capital raise is done??

Air New Zealand capital raise deferred - Media releases | Air New Zealand (https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2021-airnz-capital-raise-deferred)

Yeap, end of September is the target. Who knows if this gets pushed out again due to the dreadful current state of the business. They're going to need an awful lot of lipstick for this pig.

I am not sure how anyone with a straight face could claim this company is now in the "Revive" mode which is what Greg Foran suggested a little while back.

To be honest I am not sure how on earth they will try and "sell" the investment case to shareholders with this pending XXXXL capital raise but I would hope they don't resort to telling outright porky's and being deliberately deceptive.

“It’s much easier to stay out of trouble now than to get out of trouble later.” — Warren Buffett

[Dassets]

But here is the gorilla in the chandelier shop. AIR has $1.1 billion of revenue in advance(current and long) as at end Dec 20. And YES the money already spent!! Guess what, that problem just gets bigger with the last bubble burst. Revenue for Aussi lock down now credit notes issued (including moi). When they come to be used no actual cash in the tin. However they still need to pay for fuel and the pilots' 6 percent proposed pay rise. Should give the pilots an IOU..... or better a UOM(you owe me). I reiterate re the cap raise.. who is going to sign that off. As a director I wouldn't.

[BlackPeter]

But here is the gorilla in the chandelier shop. AIR has $1.1 billion of revenue in advance(current and long) as at end Dec 20. And YES the money already spent!! Guess what, that problem just gets bigger with the last bubble burst. Revenue for Aussi lock down now credit notes issued (including moi). When they come to be used no actual cash in the tin. However they still need to pay for fuel and the pilots' 6 percent proposed pay rise. Should give the pilots an IOU..... or better a UOM(you owe me). I reiterate re the cap raise.. who is going to sign that off. As a director I wouldn't.

Taxpayer will :) - but I guess it all depends on the price. I am sure, the share will be worth something, it just will be significantly less than the current SP.

4 billion at 33 cents? ;):

[winner69]

Capital raise put off until next year

government not keen on one 'at this time' - wonder what that means?

At least Grant asked Dame Therese to convey his gratitude to the board and management for the good work they are doing


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/377176/352094.pdf

[Stranger_Danger]

Capital raise put off until next year

government not keen on one 'at this time' - wonder what that means?

At least Grant asked Dame Therese to convey his gratitude to the board and management for the good work they are doing


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/377176/352094.pdf

The only thing that is 100% a fact is that the dominant shareholder has declined to contribute equity at this moment in time. Everything past that is speculation, but that is a stone cold fact.

There was a time when such a decision would have been viewed as a "key tell" by others and the shares would fall dramatically, but in this bizzaro world they'll probably go up.

[Snow Leopard]

Keep putting it off until either
they know they don't need it (well until the crisis) or
one minute to midnight.

Disc: Never invest in airlines.

[Waltzing]

Trade it and fade it...

[winner69]

Some time next year all those loans should be converted to equity giving the government at least 80% ownership and leave the other shareholders lamenting their losses.

Could even do a proper job and buy the leftovers at 10 cents to soften the blow for the current loyalists

[Waltzing]

well will they? adding the PAYE to the loan at zero interest. Will the major shareholder just keep making the company take out loans?

the longer they can string this out and hope the new plan to re open the border in a limited form by xmas gives them some hoped for options.

the options being pray they can kick this down the road again.

[Beagle]

Kick the can of worries down the road...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Kick the can of worries down the road...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:

Question is what are their true intentions? Wait until more favourable market conditions or get it in such a deep hole they can nationalise it. Never quite know with this Government.

[Rawz]

Be back under $1 soon

[Poet]

Question is what are their true intentions? Wait until more favourable market conditions or get it in such a deep hole they can nationalise it. Never quite know with this Government.

The Govt know it isn't worth $1.47 per share so they don't want to provide capital at that valuation. They also know that they won't be popular with shareholders and others if they try to recapitalise at much lower price than the current share price so they are just waiting (and providing liquidity) until the market finally sees the writing on the wall and adjusts the market price to a more realistic level then the government can ride in on a white horse and save the day. Then they can sell back to public at a profit in a few years time

[Beagle]

The Govt know it isn't worth $1.47 per share so they don't want to provide capital at that valuation. They also know that they won't be popular with shareholders and others if they try to recapitalise at much lower price than the current share price so they are just waiting (and providing liquidity) until the market finally sees the writing on the wall and adjusts the market price to a more realistic level then the government can ride in on a white horse and save the day. Then they can sell back to public at a profit in a few years time

Sounds familiar. History "never" repeats ;) Rinse and repeat over and over as various catastrophes, misguided Ansett misadventures or future pandemics allow and every good year in between collect many, many hundreds of millions in PAYE, GST, taxes and dividends. Seems like a great scam, opps sorry, scheme. Why bother nationalizing it when they can repeatedly keep fleecing minority shareholders ?

[Waltzing]

"Kick the can of worries down the road...what could possibly go wrong"

"seems like a great scam, opps sorry, scheme."

thats the plan!!!!

The whole plan!!! You have it in a the palm of your hand for us all to ponder!

The SHAZ will get diluted and its a repeat of the last bail out....

You can plan your destressed asset strategy on that basis.

[Beagle]

Hard not ton have a chuckle about the share price starting to go up today. It seems the sheep want to be shorn ;)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hard not ton have a chuckle about the share price starting to go up today. It seems the sheep want to be shorn ;)

I don't think the Aussies will be quite so kind come midday.

[winner69]

Hard not ton have a chuckle about the share price starting to go up today. It seems the sheep want to be shorn ;)

I don't think shareholders did that well back in 2001 with the last big bailout of AIR - convertable shares and new shares to the Govt and no rights issue for existing shareholders

History repeating?

[peat]

wow.... the news is stark, the price is stupid


discl
short.

[Waltzing]

"no rights issue for existing shareholders"

it was tough for the SHAZ but they must be trusting the govt after all they all voted for the PM and her band of bothers and sisters.

Its a long and wait and see if it becomes an inviting destressed asset.

[Beagle]

I don't think shareholders did that well back in 2001 with the last big bailout of AIR - convertable shares and new shares to the Govt and no rights issue for existing shareholders

History repeating?

They got shorn like sheep with many deep cuts to the skin. Whole new generation of investors lining up keenly at the woolshed who think the Govt have nice clean shears and will get a fair sharing, opps sorry shearing, and will treat them with kindness. After all Cindy says "Be Kind"...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:...meanwhile all those staff on $300,000+ keep on collecting their pay from a business that's going downhill at 500 knots.

[stoploss]

"no rights issue for existing shareholders"

it was tough for the SHAZ but they must be trusting the govt after all they all voted for the PM and her band of bothers and sisters.

Its a long and wait and see if it becomes an inviting destressed asset.

Where are you getting "no right issue for existing shareholders " ?
Surely everyone including the Govt will have to put more money in.

[BlackPeter]

They got shorn like sheep with many deep cuts to the skin. Whole new generation of investors lining up keenly at the woolshed who think the Govt have nice clean shears and will get a fair sharing, opps sorry shearing, and will treat them with kindness. After all Cindy says "Be Kind"...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:

I don't think it would be fair to blame the government in this case.

I can't remember any stock where the signs have been clearer and for a longer time at the wall than currently at AIR. No current shareholder can complain at cap raise time that they didn't get plenty of warning and that they didn't had a chance to get out at a good price.

This feels more like fully informed sheep pushing forward to be the first on the truck going to the meat works ... and I doubt sheep would be that dumb.

[winner69]

Where are you getting "no right issue for existing shareholders " ?
Surely everyone including the Govt will have to put more money in.

Waltzingman was quoting me ….I said there didn’t seem to be a rights issue for existing shareholders in the big bailout in 2001/2002.

Save Singapore/Brierley heaps

History often repeats

[Waltzing]

the cap raise might be split up. Govt and register go on different builds , institutional and then retail.

the longer the delays the govt can just hold out.

it as if they dont want to pay up at this price... either way the Shaz takes a hiding unless a miracle turns up..

a modified mRNA specially for delta but the wider gap increases immunity...

they are praying...just praying..for a 50 cent handle..

[mikelee]

They got shorn like sheep with many deep cuts to the skin. Whole new generation of investors lining up keenly at the woolshed who think the Govt have nice clean shears and will get a fair sharing, opps sorry shearing, and will treat them with kindness. After all Cindy says "Be Kind"...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:...meanwhile all those staff on $300,000+ keep on collecting their pay from a business that's going downhill at 500 knots.

yeah, and what's more worrying to me is that 6 figures band growing wider than revenue can justify :D

[Hoop]

wow.... the news is stark, the price is stupid


discl
short.
Boiling frog syndrome.

[Beagle]

Possible Grant and Cindy conversation.
Grant - Look luv I've run this past every public relations and communications firm in town and there's simply no plausible way we can put enough lipsticks on this pig to make it look like it'll fly.
Cindy - I could loan you some of my lippy if you like ?
Grant - I couldn't do that to you, you need it to keep trying to tell everyone your vaccination program is a success
Cindy - Could we simply admit this thing is a mange infested flea ridden pig and try and con the public into backing it at 25 cents like last time ?
Grant - That's not a vote winner sweetie, doesn't fit with all that other B.S. you've been telling people about being kind. Current shareholders would feel like they're being sold down the river wouldn't they ?
Cindy - I thought the way we arm wrestled that Union rep onto the board that would fix all our problems ?
Grant - Problem is I'm reliably informed the Unions are the ones bleeding this pig dry.
Cindy - The staff are going to have to learn to sink or swim sooner or later aren't they ?
Grant - The problem is precious, we can't find any investment banking firm stupid enough to underwrite the cash issue, the company is such an absolute mess so maybe its more hard times for staff ?
Cindy - Could we float the whole darn thing on Sharsies ?
Grant - Plenty of gullible punters on there for sure love but I don't think many have really deep pockets.
Cindy - Shall we just keep kicking the can down the road and hope its the next Govt's problem ?
Grant - Excellent idea, lets do that, and in the meantime keep plugging them with usurious interest rates on their loan, what could possibly go wrong ?
Cindy - Nothing, and if it does lets just print some more money and it'll be all good.
Grant - Maybe if this thing turns into a complete train wreck we can nick it for cents on the dollar and all comrades will have a stake ?
Cindy - Another idea might be to flick it off to Iwi and call it a treaty settlement ?
Grant- Then Shane Jones and his mates can charge whatever they like for domestic fares and its not our problem !
Cindy - You're a genius, lets do this.

[nztx]

Possible Grant and Cindy conversation.
Grant - Look luv I've run this past every public relations and communications firm in town and there's simply no plausible way we can put enough lipsticks on this pig to make it look like it'll fly.
Cindy - I could loan you some of my lippy if you like ?
Grant - I couldn't do that to you, you need it to keep trying to tell everyone your vaccination program is a success
Cindy - Could we simply admit this thing is a mange infested flea ridden pig and try and con the public into backing it at 25 cents like last time ?
Grant - That's not a vote winner sweetie, doesn't fit with all that other B.S. you've been telling people about being kind. Current shareholders would feel like they're being sold down the river wouldn't they ?
Cindy - I thought the way we arm wrestled that Union rep onto the board that would fix all our problems ?
Grant - Problem is I'm reliably informed the Unions are the ones bleeding this pig dry.
Cindy - The staff are going to have to learn to sink or swim sooner or later aren't they ?
Grant - The problem is precious, we can't find any investment banking firm stupid enough to underwrite the cash issue, the company is such an absolute mess so maybe its more hard times for staff ?
Cindy - Could we float the whole darn thing on Sharsies ?
Grant - Plenty of gullible punters on there for sure love but I don't think many have really deep pockets.
Cindy - Shall we just keep kicking the can down the road and hope its the next Govt's problem ?
Grant - Excellent idea, lets do that, and in the meantime keep plugging them with usurious interest rates on their loan, what could possibly go wrong ?
Cindy - Nothing, and if it does lets just print some more money and it'll be all good.
Grant - Maybe if this thing turns into a complete train wreck we can nick it for cents on the dollar and all comrades will have a stake ?
Cindy - Another idea might be to flick it off to Iwi and call it a treaty settlement ?
Grant- Then Shane Jones and his mates can charge whatever they like for domestic fares and its not our problem !
Cindy - You're a genius, lets do this.


Bahahahaha Beagle .. you norty dog you .. we loves it :)

[Dassets]

There are a lot of confused night cleaners down the HQ these days. These strange people from Corporate keep telling them "You are an officer and director now. Please sign this little book(Prospectus) for a $1m free payment into your account tonight......No one will sign that prospectus imo without titanium clad govt guarantees.

[Dassets]

Also do the numbers NTA will be zero after the 21 result and 22 result. Should have gone into receivership Day 1, axe the employment contracts, the jet leases, the fuel contracts, the jet purchases, the real estate leases, any one want me to stop? And here you have the CEO saying he can see the light at the end of the tunnel every other month. I am sorry but the government's position on borders was pretty obvious. It was obvious outbreaks were going to occur. Yada Yada Yada. I do admit people posting here pretty much understand the issues except for one or two that I suspect were AIR pilots. And no I am still not bitter about not being a line pilot, thanks for asking. Have a great weekend. I might go flying and burn some fuel.

Disc: still short

[Cottagestyles]

Have no holdings whatsoever in AIR but the one comment I can make is history sure as heck does repeat. This was one of my very first share purchases as a teenager back in 1990 and as the years piled on years so did the pain until I finally ran screaming from the whole sh*tshow. Anyone buying in here needs their head read.
Disc. Still holding some bitterness from 20 odd years ago 🤣

[Waltzing]

"holding some bitterness from 20 odd years ago"

your a war zone hardened investor.

[winner69]

Doubt whether current shareholders need save up for a capital raise ....probably won't be invited to donate to the cause

[Beagle]

Also do the numbers NTA will be zero after the 21 result and 22 result. Should have gone into receivership Day 1, axe the employment contracts, the jet leases, the fuel contracts, the jet purchases, the real estate leases, any one want me to stop? And here you have the CEO saying he can see the light at the end of the tunnel every other month. I am sorry but the government's position on borders was pretty obvious. It was obvious outbreaks were going to occur. Yada Yada Yada. I do admit people posting here pretty much understand the issues except for one or two that I suspect were AIR pilots. And no I am still not bitter about not being a line pilot, thanks for asking. Have a great weekend. I might go flying and burn some fuel.

Disc: still short

Good on you for calling it as it really is. Hope you burned lots of aviation fuel....little known fact is that burned aviation fuel is the Beagle's favorite smell...and the real reason there's so many Beagle's at the airport ;)

[Dassets]

Nice, I burn about 120 litres per hour in the cruise so plenty for a beagle to sniff out.

[nztx]

Another Govt Prop Up job needed soon @ a high interest rate ? ;)

[Beagle]

Nice, I burn about 120 litres per hour in the cruise so plenty for a beagle to sniff out.

Sounds like a nice grunty twin engine plane. Nice. :t_up:

[Dassets]

Surely that is it for AIRNZ now. The lockdown likely to go for 2-3 months. that is cash out at the peak of last year plus add on the new 787s arrivals. Why they rehired some staff last year was way to premature. Unfortunately, imo, the aircraft have been running on more than fuel. They have been running on blind hope. Never a reliable winning strategy. Try to save what will be needed ie basic domestic, trans tasman, some Pacific not all, and a little Asia. Everything else gone.

Also I know there were not too many believers here of the eradication strategy. So it is cold comfort seeing the EU open up and USA/Canada. But, hello, if it wasn't obvious last year then the recent delta outbreak in Aust, our second closest neighbour(depending if you count Lord Howe) to NC, doomed eradication as a viable course of action.

[mikelee]

I expect to be back to Lv1 in 3 weeks, even with Delta, unless it starts to spread out of control, like in AU.

[Zaphod]

But, hello, if it wasn't obvious last year then the recent delta outbreak in Aust, our second closest neighbour(depending if you count Lord Howe) to NC, doomed eradication as a viable course of action.

Based on this statement, Skegg clearly disagrees "There however still needed to be a strategy, he said. The first question his group looked at was if elimination was still viable. Many people had said elimination was impossible. Well they were wrong"

I suppose it depends upon how you define 'viable'. From AirNZ's perspective, the consequences would be devastating.

[Jaa]

Surely that is it for AIRNZ now. The lockdown likely to go for 2-3 months. that is cash out at the peak of last year plus add on the new 787s arrivals. Why they rehired some staff last year was way to premature. Unfortunately, imo, the aircraft have been running on more than fuel. They have been running on blind hope. Never a reliable winning strategy. Try to save what will be needed ie basic domestic, trans tasman, some Pacific not all, and a little Asia. Everything else gone.

Also I know there were not too many believers here of the eradication strategy. So it is cold comfort seeing the EU open up and USA/Canada. But, hello, if it wasn't obvious last year then the recent delta outbreak in Aust, our second closest neighbour(depending if you count Lord Howe) to NC, doomed eradication as a viable course of action.

Even 2-3 months could be optimistic. Does NZ have the social cohesion it had during the first lockdown? Been protests and arrests on day 1! The arrogance and over confidence of others its telling as well.

All the other countries that did well against COVID have fallen to Delta. Vietnam, Australia, China, Brunei... Victoria proved you can eliminate a delta outbreak but it will be touch and go.

The worst case scenario isn't 2-3 months, its 1-2 years of restrictions of various degrees to suppress infections. Seems to be a hardcore group of covidiots in NZ and combined with everyone under 12 that will be enough to circulate if the virus isn't eliminated quickly.

Obviously devastating for Air NZ. Should have raised capital in June.

[Beagle]

After the brutal hard landing the Govt will step in and pick up the pieces scattered all over the runway and clobber together a new airline called Air Aotearoa, owned by the people for the people. Perhaps that has been their plan all along ? Minority shareholders still on board this train wreck are facing an inevitable and brutal crash landing with economic reality.

[winner69]

After the brutal hard landing the Govt will step in and pick up the pieces scattered all over the runway and clobber together a new airline called Air Aotearoa, owned by the people for the people. Perhaps that has been their plan all along ? Minority shareholders still on board this train wreck are facing an inevitable and brutal crash landing with economic reality.

The minority might end up with 10%/15% …if they are lucky

[Sideshow Bob]

Not like minority holders have not had warnings! Even today still trading unchanged from yesterday at $1.44, and only down 4c from pre-Covid case yesterday.

As of last report (with 12 month old stats), there were over 45,000 shareholders with 10,000 or less shares, and another 5,000 with 10k to 100k shares.

[Dassets]

This isn't a can of worms more like a 44 gallon barrel of their own making. The $1.5bil, my estimate as at beginning of week, of "credits" now grows bigger. The more money this company accepts without refund is probably now breaching a bunch of consumer protection legislation. It isn't good enough just to have it in fine print. Go ask the banks and insurers about running that argument or pay day loan providers. But moreover that credit is owed to hundreds of thousand of kiwis and what that brings. It is effectively propping up the company. I will repeat they then supposedly saying they will deliver service over the next 12 months at which time they do not receive any cash. AIR has a second and larger cash crisis coming at them.

The company will then have multiple class actions launched. A full blown receivership was the only answer and still is. Only problem now is the hole is bigger. Reminds me of Nick Lesson and his magic 88888 account. BTW met him before his fame.

How now can the directors possibly think they are not insolvent? The rule is 12 months. A nice opinion from a
Law firm and nifty numbers from some accounting firm wont be written on enough paper for the amount of arse that needs to be covered.

Now who can I find around here to carry a 44 gallon can.

[Raz]

After the brutal hard landing the Govt will step in and pick up the pieces scattered all over the runway and clobber together a new airline called Air Aotearoa, owned by the people for the people. Perhaps that has been their plan all along ? Minority shareholders still on board this train wreck are facing an inevitable and brutal crash landing with economic reality.

Its the sensible options, given the dynamics of what we can expect into the next few years, is it really a commercial proposition?

I will slightly miss the credits and air points... however I will really miss trading this share!

[Beagle]

Its the sensible options, given the dynamics of what we can expect into the next few years, is it really a commercial proposition?

I will slightly miss the credits and air points... however I will really miss trading this share!

I'll miss the dividends too. Remember when they paid out a special dividend of 25 cps and a final dividend of 10 cps (total 35 cps) at the same time ?
35 cents is more than each share is really worth now in my opinion.

[nztx]

This isn't a can of worms more like a 44 gallon barrel of their own making. The $1.5bil, my estimate as at beginning of week, of "credits" now grows bigger. The more money this company accepts without refund is probably now breaching a bunch of consumer protection legislation. It isn't good enough just to have it in fine print. Go ask the banks and insurers about running that argument or pay day loan providers. But moreover that credit is owed to hundreds of thousand of kiwis and what that brings. It is effectively propping up the company. I will repeat they then supposedly saying they will deliver service over the next 12 months at which time they do not receive any cash. AIR has a second and larger cash crisis coming at them.

The company will then have multiple class actions launched. A full blown receivership was the only answer and still is. Only problem now is the hole is bigger. Reminds me of Nick Lesson and his magic 88888 account. BTW met him before his fame.

How now can the directors possibly think they are not insolvent? The rule is 12 months. A nice opinion from a
Law firm and nifty numbers from some accounting firm wont be written on enough paper for the amount of arse that needs to be covered.

Now who can I find around here to carry a 44 gallon can.


It goes worse than that -- the impairment needed on a fleet of Birds in a sea of minimal buying interest
Going concern -- ? that probably depends on ongoing Govt commitment to funding forwards..
Without it, that basically wipes anything apart from what's in the bank or petty cash tin

Owed credits or loyalty balances - good luck with that .. ;)

where does the buck stop on the fleet of planes with wonky wheels & wings taped on ? - Robertson's desk .. ;)

[nztx]

I'll miss the dividends too. Remember when they paid out a special dividend of 25 cps and a final dividend of 10 cps (total 35 cps) at the same time ?
35 cents is more than each share is really worth now in my opinion.

Remember those days -- AIR was well regarded until it hit a series of calamities back then

[Beagle]

Remember those days -- AIR was well regarded until it hit a series of calamities back then

Years ago I was even tempted to think it wasn't a cyclical company and had genuine growth prospects...clearly I was sniffing way to much aviation fuel back then...or was I simply blinded by Chris Luxon's charisma ?

[Dassets]

C'mon, an illusion. It has been bust 3 times the last 30 years.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hmmmm might have to do a lockdown perusal of the Airpoints store…..got about $2k worth of vouchers last year at lockdown. Probably about $800 airpoint dollars that may be worth using sooner rather than later…..

[nztx]

AIR playing nice again in Covid Times


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-sticks-to-refund-policy


Air New Zealand, facing another blow with the latest lockdown, is sticking to its policy on non-refundable tickets as Consumer NZ calls for a relaxation of the airline's rules for struggling customers.

Air New Zealand chief executive Greg Foran said non-refundable fares were just that.


more at link...


Perhaps they think they wont be needing Custies further onwards ? ;)

Let's face it - AIR's non refundable jobs aren't going to be worth F-all, if things nose dive into the tarmac in the future ;)

[Beagle]

Hopefully this link works. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-sticks-to-refund-policy/4DYKHA35Y5JC7GXPMYUY6VEQKQ/

[traineeinvestor]

35 cents is more than each share is really worth now in my opinion.

By at least 35 cents ...

[nztx]

Hopefully this link works. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-sticks-to-refund-policy/4DYKHA35Y5JC7GXPMYUY6VEQKQ/

Thanks Mr B -- I would hate to give anyone a premature "AIR has gone 404" ;)

[Raz]

Thanks Mr B -- I would hate to give anyone a premature "AIR has gone 404" ;)

Even recently when they scheduled opening for Hawaii I believe, I know a few that booked..they cancelled the schedule I believe even before they started flying the route..no refunds given...hacked a few people off... The way i see it... thats as good as a bait and switch!

[Beagle]

Leaving aside their very dubious trading practices, frankly, flying in cramped aluminum tubes where you're forced to breath everyone's else's air is something I am very content to leave to others for the foreseeable future. Happy to drive to wherever I need to go.

[causecelebre]

Leaving aside their very dubious trading practices, frankly, flying in cramped aluminum tubes where you're forced to breath everyone's else's air is something I am very content to leave to others for the foreseeable future. Happy to drive to wherever I need to go.

Ha me too B. Unfortunately, I do have to travel cramped in a slightly larger aluminium tube floating on the Cook Straight tomorrow for a last dash back home before completely shut out

[nztx]

Guess we need to start worrying when AIR start auctioning off one of the wings or wheels
off the next flight due out to help pay for the return flight .. or offer special scenic parachute
exits to save paying landing fees at the other end ;)

[peat]

From BusinessDesk
Investors can’t be blamed for wondering why there are underlying differences of view between the board and its controlling shareholder regarding when more capital is put into Air NZ.
(Discl. Short)

[Maxtrade]

By at least 35 cents ...

There seems to be such a strong support keeping SP above 1.4. Will the large base of retail investors who have the, 'AIR NZ will surely rebound attitude', be enough to stop the SP from dropping down to levels some on this forum are suggesting.

The retail investors now do seem to have quite an influence on the sharemarket. If this wasn't evident the SP should be continually down trending currently and not rallying back up above 1.4. Especially when NZ is now back in lockdown. Delta bad across the globe, cases rising, air travel and tourism getting beaten up ... yet the SP holds support above 1.4??

[Beagle]

Paywalled - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-heading-for-heavy-losses/FSHC4TMADMASWL7XVZJ3Y36DUM/

Looks very grim.

[101nick101]

Yikes they'll be asking me to fly the planes soon when they're forced to reduce expenses

[winner69]

Paywalled - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-heading-for-heavy-losses/FSHC4TMADMASWL7XVZJ3Y36DUM/



Looks very grim.

Longer it goes on and the bigger the losses and even more government it becomes more certain that minority shareholders won’t be asked for more cash in capital restructure …but they might be lucky to still own 10% of the airline

[peat]

we are supporting the development and deployment of electric, hybrid and hydrogen aircraft for domestic use.

and losing billions.

disc short.

[X-men]

Loss $440m yet only 50% down from its high...

Market is crazy!

[Beagle]

Given uncertainty surrounding the current national lockdown,
ongoing international travel restrictions and uncertainty regarding
the level of demand as these restrictions lift, Air New Zealand has
suspended 2022 earnings guidance

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/377956/353176.pdf

Previous indicative guidance was for a FY22 loss of about another $450m...likely to be north of $600m now in my opinion.

Who in their right mind would commit fresh capital to this train wreck ?

All slide rights to future aircraft purchases have been used. I read this as they are already exercising every right they have to defer every new aircraft on order for as long as possible but I also note that this leads them into significant capex spend in the years ahead (e.g. ~ $500m in FY24) with no visibility on how demand might recover.

If this company was to be allowed to slide into receivership I would think that would allow them to walk away from billions of dollars in capex spend for aircraft they clearly don't need. Why should taxpayers be making what ostensibly may amount to philanthropic donations to Boeing ?

[winner69]

Qantas reported a 2.3 billion pre-tax loss

[Waltzing]

"slide into receivership"

alright then its got the moniker as the most dangerous stock today...

But seriously would the government allow this?

[STr]

I best look at ways to cash up my Airpoints before they become vapor. I assume these are a large liability for AirNZ also at the moment

[Snow Leopard]

Still $1B of equity, assuming those airframes,engines & simulators are valued right.

[Waltzing]

its going to stay listed unless nationalised... what's an extra few billion on the RBNZ...

[Beagle]

Qantas reported a 2.3 billion pre-tax loss

And their shares are up ! All the proof you need that the airline industry is absolutely bonkers. "Its easier to stay out of trouble than to get out of later on" Warren Buffet. Pretty sure he's back to disliking airlines after a brief episode of irrationality.

[Waltzing]

"airline industry is absolutely bonkers"

and AUS flight booking industry shares also up on terrible numbers. Surely delta has pushed this sector out 12 months and hopefully no more rogue variants?

[Beagle]

"airline industry is absolutely bonkers"

and AUS flight booking industry shares also up on terrible numbers. Surely delta has pushed this sector out 12 months and hopefully no more rogue variants?




No chance AIR will make money before FY26.. and no dividends for the rest of this decade...you read it from the hound first.

[Waltzing]

Well there are some DIV questions for MR B over on WHS which might give investors more hope..

While wishing to return to europe next july i felt that this year in NZ was the best year for freedom of movement likely for a while.

Unfortunately the experts are now voicing this view.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126194928/expert-2021-may-prove-a-golden-year-with-more-outbreaks-lockdowns-expected-next-year

Perhaps it will be 2023 before travel back to europe complete with PPE kit when out and about and avoiding crowds...

Means while of course for some of us money tide up in europe on accommodation is another year of write offs..

Would have been better to have bought apartments after all. At least they could have been rented out!

[Sideshow Bob]

While strategic/other seasons for it, that airfreight subsidy is huge for Air NZ.

Cargo up 71%, $333m of revenue from the govt.

Take that out and the pupply looks even sicker.

[porkandpuha]

While strategic/other seasons for it, that airfreight subsidy is huge for Air NZ.

Cargo up 71%, $333m of revenue from the govt.

Take that out and the pupply looks even sicker.

Ironically, the government also gives a subsidy to other airlines in the NZ market who then take market share off Air NZ. The other carriers are often getting propped up by their own governments meaning the double dipping allows them to undercut Air NZ's pricing.

[Dassets]

On the same routes? With the same feeder network?

[porkandpuha]

On the same routes? With the same feeder network?


On the same routes.

Government support for the transport sector | Ministry of Transport (https://www.transport.govt.nz/area-of-interest/air-transport/government-support-for-the-transport-sector/) and click "Maintaining International Air Connectivity Scheme"

Subsidies for all of the below airlines/routes, while Air NZ also fly into the same market:
China Southern into Guangzhou
China Airlines into Taipei
Cathay Pacific into Hong Kong
Korean Air into Seoul

And that list excludes the fact that China Airlines can connect into the other Asian markets where Air NZ fly (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tokyo)

[Beagle]

I believe the issue is a lot of medicines come from that part of the world and its no good trying to sea freight them :eek2:

[iceman]

I believe the issue is a lot of medicines come from that part of the world and its no good trying to sea freight them :eek2:

And very important to keep the freight routes and contacts active. If all these airlines leave, it may be very hard to get them back given how far behind we will be opening up our borders. They'll be far too busy elsewhere when we finally welcome them again.

[nztx]

SP still not showing too much forward collateral damage

perhaps the hard landing is still to come when the clouds clear ? ;)

[Beagle]

SP still not showing too much forward collateral damage

perhaps the hard landing is still to come when the clouds clear ? ;)

Extreme turbulence ahead for sure. Hope all passengers have a very strong stomach and their seat belts are firmly fastened and tray tables folded away. Wouldn't want to be on board this journey for all the tea in China.

[mikelee]

The longer this goes on the harder it'll be for AIR to hold on to talents too. The $1,000 share incentive is a nice gesture but too little too late imo. And with the borders still closed there will be even less reason to stick with a company that can't offer any perks.

[causecelebre]

The longer this goes on the harder it'll be for AIR to hold on to talents too. The $1,000 share incentive is a nice gesture but too little too late imo. And with the borders still closed there will be even less reason to stick with a company that can't offer any perks.

The amount of IP running out the door to market rates is staggering. It's a complex domain and loosing all that knowledge in peoples heads. Because of PR optics staff aren't being paid market rates as a good portion of the packages was based on bonus's and they are running out the door and have been for 18 months now. People not only don't want to work at AIR due to the $ but also because its future is an unknown quantity. In order to back fill these open positions IBM have been engaged for some time to 'consult'. I simply can't see how its more economic to 'employ' a consultant to do the same job at 2x or 3x the rate of a local employee (or freelancer). And there are a lot of them

[Zaphod]

I simply can't see how its more economic to 'employ' a consultant to do the same job at 2x or 3x the rate of a local employee (or freelancer). And there are a lot of them


Given talent acquisition is difficult or impossible, there's probably not a lot of choice right now.

There are also numerous cost and tax advantages in contract labour over hiring employees. It's not a clear-cut choice based solely on the rate. While 2x or 3x can look expensive, there are numerous hidden and very expensive costs when employing staff.

From my experience, AIR are sharp negotiators with these types of contracts.

[nztx]

The market looks a bit strange - many NZX Listings down today .. meanwhile AIR SP goes up .. ;)

Are the Cleaners & Janitors being paid to buy a few, or just topping up to a marketable parcel
that the brokers will accept, so they can dump them all in a hurry .. ? ;)

[101nick101]

The market looks a bit strange - many NZX Listings down today .. meanwhile AIR SP goes up .. ;)

Are the Cleaners & Janitors being paid to buy a few, or just topping up to a marketable parcel
that the brokers will accept, so they can dump them all in a hurry .. ? ;)

Time to buy puts

[causecelebre]

Given talent acquisition is difficult or impossible, there's probably not a lot of choice right now.

There are also numerous cost and tax advantages in contract labour over hiring employees. It's not a clear-cut choice based solely on the rate. While 2x or 3x can look expensive, there are numerous hidden and very expensive costs when employing staff.

From my experience, AIR are sharp negotiators with these types of contracts.

You make some good points.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-plans-to-beef-up-vaccination-requirements/PUFPRC7H3F54C4X7MBCM67PWBA/
AIR set to make vaccination compulsory for all customer facing roles. Head of the Union "Savage" expresses reservations but seems to be in complete denial that if unvaccinated staff are allowed onboard to in effect pose a clear and present danger to passengers lives the reaction from customers at large will indeed be very savage.

[777]

No reason why the crew should not be vaccinated providing all the passengers are also required to be vaccinated.

[dobby41]

No reason why the crew should not be vaccinated providing all the passengers are also required to be vaccinated.

Considering that the crew meet many, many passengers and the passengers meet only a few crew it seems reasonable for the crew to be vaccinated even if the passengers aren't.

[Waltzing]

"complete denial"

maybe they havnt "herd" the really fast moving variants arnt here yet... or what they will do.. The experts seem to be saying it will depower over time that time frame isnt specified.

Maybe nothing goes back to NORMAL for a LONG TIME.

Vaccination should almost be put into legislation and be done with it and boasters for variations.

Every year mandatory.

[777]

Considering that the crew meet many, many passengers and the passengers meet only a few crew it seems reasonable for the crew to be vaccinated even if the passengers aren't.

Why should the vaccinated passengers be put at risk by unvaccinated passengers?

If this government has any guts it will put restrictions on the unvaccinated which I am sure other governments will do.

[Beagle]

"complete denial"

Maybe nothing goes back to NORMAL for a LONG TIME.

Vaccination should almost be put into legislation and be done with it and boasters for variations.

Every year mandatory.


I agree, a VERY LONG time in my opinion. I would expect that AIR will make it compulsory for all passenger's and all crew to be vaccinated. If they don't then that means I am very unlikely to ever get on another one of their aircraft. Air travel is now something to be "endured" rather than enjoyed. If one has to risk their life as well its GAME OVER as far as I am concerned.

Frankly driving one's own car to wherever you want to go has never looked more appealing :t_up:

I feel sorry for people who have to endure air travel for business purposes.

[winner69]

A VERY LONG time in my opinion. I would expect that AIR will make it compulsory for all passenger's and all crew to be vaccinated. If they don't then that means I am very unlikely to ever get on another one of their aircraft. Air travel is now something to be "endured" rather than enjoyed. If one has to risk their life as well its GAME OVER as far as I am concerned.

Private jet charters could be a thriving business in the future ….avoid the long pencils and have more control over risks

[Waltzing]

" If one has to risk their life as well its GAME OVER as far as I am concerned."

for return to europe perhaps in 2022 or 23 we are waiting on the PHD Bio chemists recommendation on N95 masks (already standard when the PHD travels by aircraft for years now ), even full rebreather masks for trains and taxis plus and all travel in trains and passenger ship first class only...

All air travel business class.

AIR NZ should replace those pathetic planes they use for internal travel or one person in each pair of seats going forward and charge more!

or put on special flights.

[dobby41]

Why should the vaccinated passengers be put at risk by unvaccinated passengers?

If this government has any guts it will put restrictions on the unvaccinated which I am sure other governments will do.

I wasn't answering from that angle and don't disagree with you.
Easy for me - I'll shortly be vaccinated.

[Waltzing]

Think the company tax model from Estonia would suite AIR....

In fact that model could grow a new economy in NZ...

[Beagle]

Private jet charters could be a thriving business in the future ….avoid the long pencils and have more control over risks

Looked into that once. Its eye-wateringly expensive I tell ya !

[Dassets]

My Piper Navajo is up 25-35% over the last 2 years. Planes like that never go up! More than that people are doing are doing full refurb on them for 2 x engines 120TUSD each plus fitting, avionics, going to glass, $177TNZD plus $75T fitting. interior NZD$50T, Paint NZD50T, total 570T +85TGST =650T + airframe. That aircraft good for at least 50hrs. The B52s are likely to fly for 100 years operationally But that would give you an aircraft that can take paid pilot, the whole family gear etc anywhere in NZ one hit, New Caledonia, Australia to NZ(tailwind norm) direct, risky the other way. Operating cost 400 an hour + pilot, 8 seats. Weird times

[Beagle]

Its right across the spectrum of toys, classic cars, boats, campervans, caravans, you name it, record prices are being paid.

You would swear that baby boomers and anyone else with money are cutting loose on hobbies as a way of just enjoying today, because who knows what tomorrow might bring.

[porkandpuha]

One airline is set to announce next week that they are leaving the NZ market and taking their aircraft to a more profitable routing where they can sell bottoms on seats rather than cargo in the boot. Big hit for NZ importers/exporters.

[Snow Leopard]

One airline is set to announce next week that they are leaving the NZ market and taking their aircraft to a more profitable routing where they can sell bottoms on seats rather than cargo in the boot. Big hit for NZ importers/exporters.

But unless it IS Air New Zealand then it IS good for Air New Zealand? :cool:

[peat]

One airline is set to announce next week that they are leaving the NZ market and taking their aircraft to a more profitable routing where they can sell bottoms on seats rather than cargo in the boot. Big hit for NZ importers/exporters.

should be in the AIA thread really?

[Maxtrade]

But unless it IS Air New Zealand then it IS good for Air New Zealand? :cool:

Seems some investors must be thinking that way currently. With all going on with AIR and Covid it seems surprising the SP has actually increased back into the 1.5 range. Is the power of the retail investors strong enough now to hold an SP up higher than what it should actually be, simply through the belief that Air NZ cant fail and will come back. Goes against all logics that SP is not still steadily falling with the looming deferred capital raise and ever increasing debt.

How has the SP gone back up to 1.55!?

[porkandpuha]

But unless it IS Air New Zealand then it IS good for Air New Zealand? :cool:

It could be from a cargo perspective.. but what it does highlight is that NZ is getting left behind in the economic recovery due to our border policy and low vax rates. Our national carrier cant openly sell bums on seats, while the rest of the world is starting to.

[Animeart]

just need to persuade our PM to share a view similar to her Singaporean and Australian counterpart that's all

[Maxtrade]

Seems some investors must be thinking that way currently. With all going on with AIR and Covid it seems surprising the SP has actually increased back into the 1.5 range. Is the power of the retail investors strong enough now to hold an SP up higher than what it should actually be, simply through the belief that Air NZ cant fail and will come back. Goes against all logics that SP is not still steadily falling with the looming deferred capital raise and ever increasing debt.

How has the SP gone back up to 1.55!?

Does it make any sense that AIR is rallying looking to test resistance of 1.60. With massive inevitable looming capital raise, and huge debt by then, how is the market rallying AIR currently?? By most analysts accounts AIR SP will be below $1 (possibly 0.75-0.85) by the time the capital raise comes around, so shouldn't we be seeing a gradual steady decline in SP?

[Ggcc]

Does it make any sense that AIR is rallying looking to test resistance of 1.60. With massive inevitable looming capital raise, and huge debt by then, how is the market rallying AIR currently?? By most analysts accounts AIR SP will be below $1 (possibly 0.75-0.85) by the time the capital raise comes around, so shouldn't we be seeing a gradual steady decline in SP?
Totally agree. I spoke with a mate who is still in and he believes they are worth close to $2 per share when things get up and running. Plus many of his mates who are tradies are into AIR. I mentioned to him to consider selling while the price is this high. I don't know why during a pandemic that you could "invest" in AIR

[winner69]

Totally agree. I spoke with a mate who is still in and he believes they are worth close to $2 per share when things get up and running. Plus many of his mates who are tradies are into AIR. I mentioned to him to consider selling while the price is this high. I don't know why during a pandemic that you could "invest" in AIR

Your mate will believe you when they wake up and read retail shareholders only hold 10% of the company after the government has converted debt to equity and pumped in another zillion or two of cash as well.

[Baa_Baa]

Your mate will believe you when they wake up and read retail shareholders only hold 10% of the company after the government has converted debt to equity and pumped in another zillion or two of cash as well.

The incredible thing imo is that this is all written in the history of AIR, after the Ansett debacle in 2001 which in current times will be the Covid debacle. It's even published on NZX (https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/analysis), the story of Covid for AIR will read very similarly to the second paragraph of the history. I recall the SP falling to $0.21 (from I think over $11 a year earlier) and existing holders were severely screwed and diluted to oblivion.

[Beagle]

The incredible thing imo is that this is all written in the history of AIR, after the Ansett debacle in 2001 which in current times will be the Covid debacle. It's even published on NZX (https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/analysis), the story of Covid for AIR will read very similarly to the second paragraph of the history. I recall the SP falling to $0.21 (from I think over $11 a year earlier) and existing holders were severely screwed and diluted to oblivion.

Your recollection is sound. Fact is there's a whole new generation of jersey cows to be milked dry and that's exactly what's going to happen as sure as night follows day.

[Waltzing]

Its going to be a long day by the looks of it before the night.

12935

[Beagle]

Like flying Auckland to Perth...the day never seems to end.

[Scrunch]

The incredible thing imo is that this is all written in the history of AIR, after the Ansett debacle in 2001 which in current times will be the Covid debacle. It's even published on NZX (https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/analysis), the story of Covid for AIR will read very similarly to the second paragraph of the history. I recall the SP falling to $0.21 (from I think over $11 a year earlier) and existing holders were severely screwed and diluted to oblivion.

The historical prices that places like Yahoo finance quote for the year 2000 are adjusted figures, not the actual share prices from the day. The price was in the $2 to $4 range for the later 1990's before Air's collapse and bailout. It then did fall down to circa 20c, and my recollection was a low of 13c. They then had the government bailout in the circa 20-25c range that hugely increased shares on issue. Soon after this they had a 5:1 consolidation that returned the price to above $1. This 5:1 consolidation however caused all these earlier $2 prices to start being reported as $10 prices. It also cause a lot of general punters that didn't follow closely to see $2 prices before the collapse and $2 prices sometime after the collapse and not realize the full wealth destruction that had occurred.

There was the 90%+ fall, but not quite $11 to 21c.

[winner69]

The historical prices that places like Yahoo finance quote for the year 2000 are adjusted figures, not the actual share prices from the day. The price was in the $2 to $4 range for the later 1990's before Air's collapse and bailout. It then did fall down to circa 20c, and my recollection was a low of 13c. They then had the government bailout in the circa 20-25c range that hugely increased shares on issue. Soon after this they had a 5:1 consolidation that returned the price to above $1. This 5:1 consolidation however caused all these earlier $2 prices to start being reported as $10 prices. It also cause a lot of general punters that didn't follow closely to see $2 prices before the collapse and $2 prices sometime after the collapse and not realize the full wealth destruction that had occurred.

There was the 90%+ fall, but not quite $11 to 21c.

That’s very much how I recollect it as well

Bottom line that’s relevant today is that shareholders who held through thick and thin took a real haircut when the government bailed them out (through dilution) ….and those shareholders included Brierley and Singapore Airlines.

I’d say dollars to donuts history will repeat itself

[mikelee]

This Delta variant could really throw AIR's recovery plan for 2022 into disarray. I for one will not be keen to travel overseas until it's safe to fly without the hassle of testing before departure and after arrival.

[porkandpuha]

I for one will not be keen to travel overseas until it's safe to fly without the hassle of testing before departure and after arrival.

Can't have it both ways... Yes, a pre departure test may be hassle, but it's also one of the things that will ensure it's "safe to fly"

[peat]

still short and continuing to build the position.

one of the things I'm done to mitgate risk on this trade is to buy AIA and have so far acquired at 7.10

[Dassets]

Can't recall if I posted this but intended to after result and can't seem to search my post on my phone so sorry if I have. Also doing this from memory so nos won't be accurate to nearest 1m

In the accounts are pre paid fares. I estimate up to $300m may have been added since balance date due to aussi closing then nz closing. In total add that to short and long term prepay about $1.5bil. Revenue for year was $1b ex govt freight subsidy. Routes are pared back. Now look at non covid year rev for some guidance

Rules for prepaid are to be spent within 12 months and flight within 24 months from original post partum.

Looking forward at the schedule, work in seats and miles flown etc etc I cannot see any chance of these pre paid being able to convert anywhere near all. This is assuming no other flights are booked by other travellers in a year and maybe in 2 years. That is no room for other pax.

So this brings on another problem. AIR has been selling tickets that if a freeze came on they could not possibly honour the offer of a credit as the option for non flight Problem for an airline that has special provisions under commerce legislation ie utilities etc have special protection for consumers.

Insolvency. With the govt saying situation not stable enough to support cap raise plus this pre pay issue let alone possible ComCom action why are these directors pushing on? Have they been given any representations of immunity from enforcement action by govt?? That is my only guess cause I cannot understand why they are continuing.

See those credits really have to be covered for 2 reasons. 1 massive amount of voters. 2. Massive customer base to avoid screwing.

Problem is I cannot see how they can deliver for years. They need cash paying customers to pay the costs to run future flights as people flying on credits have had their cash to pay costs yesterday.

Btw cash holdings are low cf normal balance sheet. The ratio of pre pay to rev is a record by a huge margin. Also when you look at international comps for those ratios you see AIR is an absolute outlier. This is bad news for those directors because it is a clear sign the business is operating way outside norm. Then we get into reckless trading triggers........ hasn't that horse run around the track a few times already??

[Poet]

Can't recall if I posted this but intended to after result and can't seem to search my post on my phone so sorry if I have. Also doing this from memory so nos won't be accurate to nearest 1m

In the accounts are pre paid fares. I estimate up to $300m may have been added since balance date due to aussi closing then nz closing. In total add that to short and long term prepay about $1.5bil. Revenue for year was $1b ex govt freight subsidy. Routes are pared back. Now look at non covid year rev for some guidance

Rules for prepaid are to be spent within 12 months and flight within 24 months from original post partum.

Looking forward at the schedule, work in seats and miles flown etc etc I cannot see any chance of these pre paid being able to convert anywhere near all. This is assuming no other flights are booked by other travellers in a year and maybe in 2 years. That is no room for other pax.

So this brings on another problem. AIR has been selling tickets that if a freeze came on they could not possibly honour the offer of a credit as the option for non flight Problem for an airline that has special provisions under commerce legislation ie utilities etc have special protection for consumers.

Insolvency. With the govt saying situation not stable enough to support cap raise plus this pre pay issue let alone possible ComCom action why are these directors pushing on? Have they been given any representations of immunity from enforcement action by govt?? That is my only guess cause I cannot understand why they are continuing.

See those credits really have to be covered for 2 reasons. 1 massive amount of voters. 2. Massive customer base to avoid screwing.

Problem is I cannot see how they can deliver for years. They need cash paying customers to pay the costs to run future flights as people flying on credits have had their cash to pay costs yesterday.

Btw cash holdings are low cf normal balance sheet. The ratio of pre pay to rev is a record by a huge margin. Also when you look at international comps for those ratios you see AIR is an absolute outlier. This is bad news for those directors because it is a clear sign the business is operating way outside norm. Then we get into reckless trading triggers........ hasn't that horse run around the track a few times already??

All good points.
Also, I think AIR are doing enormous damage to their goodwill with the way they are treating their customers. I had experience recently where I booked a flight for family NZ to Australia for end of October and get an email a few days ago saying that 'due to unavoidable operational issues' our flight had been moved forward a whole day - ie one day of our holiday has just been 'disappeared' - no mention about the fact that we had pre-paid accommodation for the night that we will no longer be able to use. So I cancelled the reservation, and get this - I can only get a credit, not a refund. When the whole problem is that AIR is failing (so that they can max their profits) to provide the contracted service- it is disgraceful and won't be easily forgotten by me at least.
As to all of those credits, an easy solution for a near monopoly, just double the price of the tickets and effectively make people with credits pay again for their trips

[FTG]

Can't recall if I posted this but intended to after result and can't seem to search my post on my phone so sorry if I have. Also doing this from memory so nos won't be accurate to nearest 1m

In the accounts are pre paid fares. I estimate up to $300m may have been added since balance date due to aussi closing then nz closing. In total add that to short and long term prepay about $1.5bil. Revenue for year was $1b ex govt freight subsidy. Routes are pared back. Now look at non covid year rev for some guidance

Rules for prepaid are to be spent within 12 months and flight within 24 months from original post partum.

Looking forward at the schedule, work in seats and miles flown etc etc I cannot see any chance of these pre paid being able to convert anywhere near all. This is assuming no other flights are booked by other travellers in a year and maybe in 2 years. That is no room for other pax.

So this brings on another problem. AIR has been selling tickets that if a freeze came on they could not possibly honour the offer of a credit as the option for non flight Problem for an airline that has special provisions under commerce legislation ie utilities etc have special protection for consumers.

Insolvency. With the govt saying situation not stable enough to support cap raise plus this pre pay issue let alone possible ComCom action why are these directors pushing on? Have they been given any representations of immunity from enforcement action by govt?? That is my only guess cause I cannot understand why they are continuing.

See those credits really have to be covered for 2 reasons. 1 massive amount of voters. 2. Massive customer base to avoid screwing.

Problem is I cannot see how they can deliver for years. They need cash paying customers to pay the costs to run future flights as people flying on credits have had their cash to pay costs yesterday.

Btw cash holdings are low cf normal balance sheet. The ratio of pre pay to rev is a record by a huge margin. Also when you look at international comps for those ratios you see AIR is an absolute outlier. This is bad news for those directors because it is a clear sign the business is operating way outside norm. Then we get into reckless trading triggers........ hasn't that horse run around the track a few times already??


Some good but rather sobering observations Dassets.

I think the other big elephant in the room is in regards to Airpoints. Normally a healthy profit centre for AIR. But now more than ever, a rather big noose/liability for them. Especially as members are more likely to redeem them rather than paying cash for flights, further exacerbating the cashflow crunch.

I'm sad to say, last year I decided to convert a good chunk of the hard earned points into other goods & services. My view was "1 in the hand is worth more than 2 in the bush".

At the stroke of a pen, loyalty points can be "re-valued", further diminishing customer trust & loyalty. It's happened before and quite possibly will again?

[Snow Leopard]

Some good but rather sobering observations Dassets.

I think the other big elephant in the room is in regards to Airpoints....

Just to clarify at 30-June-2021 The liability 'Revenue in advance', which consists of both prepaid airfares and Airpoints amounted to $1.192 Billion.

Read Note 14 of the Financial Statements for details.

[Dassets]

Ok I missed the airpoints. Haven't got my computer to check the note so if the airports liability is there can you post the amount. That will mean that basically all the increase since 2020 to 2021 will be credit I would think because not much flying to earn them and non flight airpoints aren't much. Also I would guess that airpoints that were stored will have been reduces alot as people brought ginzu knifes or whatever. I know mine have gone from 1200 to 600 by buying a couple of flights.

So I guess airpoints way smaller. Doesn't really change my point imo. $100m between friends not going to change things

[winner69]

When AIR was on its last legs at the turn of the century and days before being resuscitated by the government they were reassuring the market ‘we’ve got a billion in the bank, no worries’

Of course it was mainly pre-paid fares

Heard them say that quite often over the years and always laugh

They probably don’t even have half a billion in the bank now …so things must be pretty dire …but no worries as history repeats itself

[Dassets]

Exactly it has been already spent and that was at 30 June. Note 14 has pre paid at 773. Down from 2020 and that makes sense because all forward bookings classify as that. But I am talking about credits not forward bookings in bau. They still need to be booked. Really note 14 should be expanded. Auditors should have been on yo yesterday as the make up of numbers has changed.

So add in post balance say 1bil. That only brings me back to 1 year of seats required to use over 2 years. Not enough cash from New fare paying pax to operate anyway

[Beagle]

When AIR was on its last legs at the turn of the century and days before being resuscitated by the government they were reassuring the market ‘we’ve got a billion in the bank, no worries’

Of course it was mainly pre-paid fares

Heard them say that quite often over the years and always laugh

They probably don’t even have half a billion in the bank now …so things must be pretty dire …but no worries as history repeats itself

Yeah if my memory serves me correctly they bravely spouted out that nonsense just a couple of weeks before they milked shareholders dry with a massively discounted rights issue in 2001.

The new generation of suckers lining up are either blissfully ignorant or are trying to con themselves that history never repeats. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=history+never+repeats+split+enz&view=detail&mid=F9DA03EA79FC6C31B0F8F9DA03EA79FC6C31B0F8&FORM=VIRE

[Waltzing]

"milked shareholders dry"

slightly distressed asset then... um..it will be a hand crank landing gear then..

[FTG]

Just to clarify at 30-June-2021 The liability 'Revenue in advance', which consists of both prepaid airfares and Airpoints amounted to $1.192 Billion.

Read Note 14 of the Financial Statements for details.

Yip, oouch! Whatever way one slices & dices it, it doesn't maketh a pretty picture.

[mikelee]

probably why people are not sticking around if better opportunities present itself

[Waltzing]

if the dilution comes then imagine the effect on the SHAZ as there equity disappears... first time investors for many.

Lets hope for a second time in a life time destressed assets purchase arrives. SKT prices would be good.

[Baa_Baa]

if the dilution comes then imagine the effect on the SHAZ as there equity disappears... first time investors for many.

Lets hope for a second time in a life time destressed assets purchase arrives.

And there is the opportunity, which unlike last time few took advantage of. Was scary then, even on the sidelines. Distressed company, an awful word. Especially for an owner rather than a suitor.

Would be nice to hear a story from someone who bought AIR in 2001'ish at the lows.

Older and wiser now, and not too concerned who sells their shares to me. AIR = too big and important to NZ to fail. Ergo, government will serve up, and as suggested, second time in a lifetime opportunity?

Patience.

[Waltzing]

Worth a re read just to refresh ones memory... and what a decade to follow. A big crash every 10 to 15 years on the market.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/09/from-the-archives-the-ansett-collapse/

and one wonders if the current Government has asked you know who for a possible plan.

https://www.kordamentha.com/Home

[STr]

Have been watching the posts on WHS and the rest of NZ out shopping …. So, reduced the Airpoints balance by a few thousand in the online store today. 1. Satisfied the urge to shop and 2. Growing realisation that I ain’t going to be flying offshore for a number of years and those Airpoints are possibly a liability AIR don’t really need.

[Beagle]

Good move, who knows what might happen to those airpoints in a major restructure ? Could end up being worthless. I have no interest in confining myself into a thin aluminium tube breathing everyone's else's air even on a domestic flight any time soon. Will head down to Mitre Ten and expend my airpoints as soon as Auckland is released from Covid jail.

[Maxtrade]

If AIR has had enough resistance to keep it from dropping below 1.50 even during NZ's second lockdown, might this suggest the SP could hold and not drop to the depths of $1 or less with the pushed out capital raise? Maybe there is enough believers in the company to support the SP from falling. Especially once the vaccine rollout reaches targeted 80% and things start resuming some kind of normality with travel and the influx of tourist bound to flow then. Pent up desire for people to travel again. I would have though this second delta lockdown would have tested the lows of where AIR SP might go. However there was enough support to stop falling below 1.40.

Thoughts?

[winner69]

If AIR has had enough resistance to keep it from dropping below 1.50 even during NZ's second lockdown, might this suggest the SP could hold and not drop to the depths of $1 or less with the pushed out capital raise? Maybe there is enough believers in the company to support the SP from falling. Especially once the vaccine rollout reaches targeted 80% and things start resuming some kind of normality with travel and the influx of tourist bound to flow then. Pent up desire for people to travel again. I would have though this second delta lockdown would have tested the lows of where AIR SP might go. However there was enough support to stop falling below 1.40.

Thoughts?

Hang in there max …you might be right

But I’m an old codger with old bones and those bones tell me that existing shares will be next to worthless (OK shouldn’t exaggerate so will say greatly finished value) this time next year.

[Beagle]

Some travel, leisure and casino stocks got smacked up pretty bad on the US markets overnight. The realities of a Delta world are starting to make themselves felt. This old mutt with old bones is avoiding the travel and leisure sector like a plague because who wants to keep getting kicked in the head repeatedly as one variant after another poses major problems in the years ahead ?

Its too ugly and uncomfortable to talk about the fact that there's more variants coming and will probably pose ongoing major issues for years...nobody wants to contemplate that so hardly anyone talks about it.

[BlackPeter]

If AIR has had enough resistance to keep it from dropping below 1.50 even during NZ's second lockdown, might this suggest the SP could hold and not drop to the depths of $1 or less with the pushed out capital raise? Maybe there is enough believers in the company to support the SP from falling. Especially once the vaccine rollout reaches targeted 80% and things start resuming some kind of normality with travel and the influx of tourist bound to flow then. Pent up desire for people to travel again. I would have though this second delta lockdown would have tested the lows of where AIR SP might go. However there was enough support to stop falling below 1.40.

Thoughts?

I don't think there is any doubt that travel will be down for some time. Antivaxxers will make sure that Covid will run for years to come and I think it will be as well a safe bet that they will breed soon a super delta version of the virus.

Sure - there always will be transport and (some) travel, but it probably would be easier for a new company (without the constraints of an existing - and now - mismatched structure) to make the best out of any new opportunities.

AIR's fundamentals will look bad for at least several years to come and their capital hunger will be significant.

Of course - nobody can say, what this means for the share price ... if you want to see where hype can drive securities without value or earnings potential, look no further than e.g. cryptocurrencies of Gamestop.

Will AIR be the next Bitcoin or Gamestop? Possible, the question is just how big you see the risks that the market will at some stage come to its senses and start to value it according to its earning potential.

Personally I think if you want to grow your capital, there are better odds around than buying at current an AIR share with dilution guarantee for something north of $1.50 ...

[peat]

If AIR has had enough resistance to keep it from dropping below 1.50 even during NZ's second lockdown, might this suggest the SP could hold and not drop to the depths of $1 or less with the pushed out capital raise? Maybe there is enough believers in the company to support the SP from falling. Especially once the vaccine rollout reaches targeted 80% and things start resuming some kind of normality with travel and the influx of tourist bound to flow then. Pent up desire for people to travel again. I would have though this second delta lockdown would have tested the lows of where AIR SP might go. However there was enough support to stop falling below 1.40.

Thoughts?

I think it just got a bit oversold after 6 months of down. Here shown on the weekly we see the RSI went into oversold territory. There was no divergence though.
12965

It appears to me that each day the minnows come out and buy it up furiously and yes support is quite strong. But I think ultimately resistance will be stronger - I'm happy to keep selling into any significant rallies. Got some more done the other day at 1.58.

[peat]

Antivaxxers will make sure that Covid will run for years to come and I think it will be as well a safe bet that they will breed soon a super delta version of the virus.


Gotta keep jabbin at people dont ya.

12966

[777]

Gotta keep jabbin at people dont ya.

12966

But he/she is so accurate.

[peat]

But he/she is so accurate.

are they tho?

see I see the vaccination programme as partly responsible for the variety of mutations? I could be wrong so we better not derail a thread. But y'know BP should just keep it to the right thread



which is a bit rich comin from me on the PAZ thread lol.

midday today was a bearish engulfing on the hourly. there have been several of them lately on the daily.

[mondograss]

see I see the vaccination programme as partly responsible for the variety of mutations? .

You are wrong, the more the virus spreads, the more it reproduces and the more it reproduces the more it makes mistakes (mutations) some of which will be advantageous and therefore become locked in. Delta and other variants were an inevitable result of countries failure to control the spread and vaccinate more quickly. No surprises that the major variants have come out of the poorest countries India (Delta) and South Africa (Beta), Brazil (Gamma), Peru (Lambda).

[nztx]

You are wrong, the more the virus spreads, the more it reproduces and the more it reproduces the more it makes mistakes (mutations) some of which will be advantageous and therefore become locked in. Delta and other variants were an inevitable result of countries failure to control the spread and vaccinate more quickly. No surprises that the major variants have come out of the poorest countries India (Delta) and South Africa (Beta), Brazil (Gamma), Peru (Lambda).


I wouldn't call mutations mistakes but more a bit of Darwin's theory in play - with more evasive virulent strains evolving / flourishing / surviving while lesser resistant mutations decline ;)

Probably not too far wrong that these evolved in geographic regions where their authorities have for one reason or another failed to recognise / achieve effective measures to contain things at the crucial times ..

Evolution of the strains must raise questions on any ongoing effectiveness Vax / Control measures

There may become a time where current Vax becomes increasingly ineffective in dealing to newer strains or the mutant strains evolve further..

[mondograss]

I wouldn't call mutations mistakes but more a bit of Darwin's theory in play - with more evasive virulent strains evolving / flourishing / surviving while lesser resistant mutations decline ;)

Probably not too far wrong that these evolved in geographic regions where their authorities have for one reason or another failed to recognise / achieve effective measures to contain things at the crucial times ..

Evolution of the strains must raise questions on any ongoing effectiveness Vax / Control measures

There may become a time where current Vax becomes increasingly ineffective in dealing to newer strains or the mutant strains evolve further..

They're mistakes in the sense that all mutations are effectively a copying error when reproducing. But yes it's just how evolution works. Yes I expect that this will become a bit like the flu shot where they try to predict which strains will be circulating this year and cover them in a booster vaccine. Luckily it's not really in a virus's interest to be completely lethal, after all that rather curtails reproduction which is the primary objective. So over time we may see a tendency towards less harmful but more evasive (asymptomatic) strains as that's ultimately going to allow it to become more endemic.

[Snow Leopard]

Air New Zealand's next airplanes:

https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/4/y/p/v/q/p/image.related.StuffBigHeadline.418x220.238z4o.11jm 2n.png/1631729451066.jpg

Stuff (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126389976/air-new-zealand-and-airbus-launch-zeroemissions-aircraft-project)

[Getty]

I much prefer the eco friendly version, re cyclable as well.

https://youtu.be/2sbp2VQMT1M

[mikelee]

bio fuel will not be practical for a while I reckon, I believe some kind of hybrid, with battery power, will be more likely. After all, planes don't have to worry about stop and go, like a car, so just need to use battery for take off and landing to maximise fuel saving.

[winner69]

Good news

Still got $1,065,000,00 to go before we the facility runs out

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/379292/354890.pdf


Longer this goes on the greater dilution when Govt actually steps in …..maybe existing shareholders will end up 10% of the company

[Beagle]

Burning cash at 500 knots but still investing heaps more money in ESG projects. Yeah that makes "perfect sense"

[Doug]

bio fuel will not be practical for a while I reckon, I believe some kind of hybrid, with battery power, will be more likely. After all, planes don't have to worry about stop and go, like a car, so just need to use battery for take off and landing to maximise fuel saving.

Gasoline energy density is 47.5 MJ/kg. A lithium-ion battery pack has about 0.3 MJ/kg . Gasoline thus has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery.
Battery planes unlikely for long distance travel with current technology.

[causecelebre]

AIR loves a good greenwash

[Beagle]

Gasoline energy density is 47.5 MJ/kg. A lithium-ion battery pack has about 0.3 MJ/kg . Gasoline thus has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery.
Battery planes unlikely for long distance travel with current technology.

Interesting. Can you unpack that for me a bit more ?
If I put 60 liters of fuel in my car I might drive for 600 km's. I understand petrol weigh's about 0.75 kg a liter so 60 x 0.75 = 45 kg fuel = 600 km's.
Some EV's with 600 kg lithium ion battery packs are doing up to 600 km's range. 600 / 45 = 13 times the weight to expend the same amount of energy, not 100 ?
What am I not understanding here ?

[Zaphod]

Gasoline energy density is 47.5 MJ/kg. A lithium-ion battery pack has about 0.3 MJ/kg . Gasoline thus has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery.
Battery planes unlikely for long distance travel with current technology.

Adding to the above, the weight of fuel on the aircraft also reduces through the course of the flight, while the battery packs will continue to weigh the same amount throughout.

Short domestic flights might work, but it will be interesting to see the detailed economics of a battery powered aircraft given the lower number of seats, lower cargo capacity, decreased availability for service (mostly related to charging times), and higher aircraft cost.

[Poet]

Interesting. Can you unpack that for me a bit more ?
If I put 60 liters of fuel in my car I might drive for 600 km's. I understand petrol weigh's about 0.75 kg a liter so 60 x 0.75 = 45 kg fuel = 600 km's.
Some EV's with 600 kg lithium ion battery packs are doing up to 600 km's range. 600 / 45 = 13 times the weight to expend the same amount of energy, not 100 ?
What am I not understanding here ?

One factor here will be the fact that electric can take advantage of a higher degree of regeneration compared to petrol, and of course electric motor has much greater conversion efficiency than ICE (60% vs 20%)

[Dassets]

Worse. Plus add in 45 mins minimum plus alternate for IFR. Then for that Cessna Caravan $500t usd or nzd? for a charger at each airport. Probably no more than 200km apart. This is just impossible . To fly it to Auckland Wellington 2 recharges say total flight time of 8hrs. To bring it in dismantle. To sell it overseas dismantle.

[dobby41]

Worse. Plus add in 45 mins minimum plus alternate for IFR. Then for that Cessna Caravan $500t usd or nzd? for a charger at each airport. Probably no more than 200km apart. This is just impossible . To fly it to Auckland Wellington 2 recharges say total flight time of 8hrs. To bring it it dismantle. To sell it overseas dismantle.

Impossible today is old hat tomorrow.

[Zaphod]

Interesting. Can you unpack that for me a bit more ?
If I put 60 liters of fuel in my car I might drive for 600 km's. I understand petrol weigh's about 0.75 kg a liter so 60 x 0.75 = 45 kg fuel = 600 km's.
Some EV's with 600 kg lithium ion battery packs are doing up to 600 km's range. 600 / 45 = 13 times the weight to expend the same amount of energy, not 100 ?
What am I not understanding here ?

The density figures provided by Doug give you an idea of how much energy can be packed into a given space and explains why the battery pack used in a vehicle is so much larger than a fuel tank. Electric vehicles store much smaller amounts of energy on board, but are generally more efficient at using that stored energy. Basically, the calculations you've made above don't reflect all of the variables involved and might not be the best way to draw energy use comparisons between the two. It gets pretty complicated!

[Benny1]

So who pays for the upgrades needed to the runways at all these regional airports to allow for the heavier landing weights of these new aircraft?

[peat]

over the last week there have been two bearish engulfing candles on the daily.

[Zaphod]

Impossible today is old hat tomorrow.

Unfortunately we have pesky physics in the way! We've doubled the energy density of batteries within about a 10 year period, but even increasing the doubling to every 5 years it would take several lifetimes to reach comparable levels of storage with hydrocarbons, but that's if it's even physically possible.

[BlackPeter]

The density figures provided by Doug give you an idea of how much energy can be packed into a given space and explains why the battery pack used in a vehicle is so much larger than a fuel tank. Electric vehicles store much smaller amounts of energy on board, but are generally more efficient at using that stored energy. Basically, the calculations you've made above don't reflect all of the variables involved and might not be the best way to draw energy use comparisons between the two. It gets pretty complicated!

True - always wondered how birds can fly for many thousand of km's without rest when they have just this incredibly inefficient biofuel on board :):

12969

12970

To determine the range there are clearly other parameters to consider than just the energy density of the fuel storage container ...

[Sideshow Bob]

AIR loves a good greenwash

Absolutely! I did the Air NZ survey last night and they are looking to get rid of plastic bag tags/membership for Koru/Frequent Flyers, for sustainability and digital technoology reasons. But at the same time looking at still being able to buy them. Whats the difference apart from saving Air NZ money??

[whatsup]

True - always wondered how birds can fly for many thousand of km's without rest when they have just this incredibly inefficient biofuel on board :):

12969

12970

To determine the range there are clearly other parameters to consider than just the energy density of the fuel storage container ...

Isnt this why Air N Z has the Koru on its tail ?

[peat]

so which bird can fly the furthest?

12971



bearish engulfing on the weekly too!

the monthly is more ambiguous with the last few just spinning.

[winner69]

Those godwits are amazing …this fella left Alaska for NZ but met a storm

From Miranda Trust:
Well the Godwit has had quite an adventure but ended up where he started, after flying for 57 hours and covering 4,200 kms, he is back on the Yukon delta, now he will have to refuel and hope he gets better weather on his next attempt


That’s averaging over 70kmh …cool

[sideline]

The density figures provided by Doug give you an idea of how much energy can be packed into a given space and explains why the battery pack used in a vehicle is so much larger than a fuel tank. Electric vehicles store much smaller amounts of energy on board, but are generally more efficient at using that stored energy. Basically, the calculations you've made above don't reflect all of the variables involved and might not be the best way to draw energy use comparisons between the two. It gets pretty complicated!

However, quite a few electric cars employ regenerative braking to harvest and re-store some of the energy back to the batteries (instead of burning it off at conventional brake pads) when braking and extend their range that way. That won't be an option with electric planes.....

[causecelebre]

Absolutely! I did the Air NZ survey last night and they are looking to get rid of plastic bag tags/membership for Koru/Frequent Flyers, for sustainability and digital technoology reasons. But at the same time looking at still being able to buy them. Whats the difference apart from saving Air NZ money??

There's a big difference between "Zero emission's hydrogen powered air-craft", as touted by AIR, and "Zero emission's hydrogen". Remember we don't invest in green H2 in NZ, the vast majority is grey H2 production, the carbon waste coming from SMR using gas and, even worse, black H2 from coal gasification. Green H2 production won't be economic for another 25 years.

Minister Shaw is heading to COP26 knowing much serious NZ production of H2 is dirty, e.g. Glenbrook (for the next 14 years), when green H2 tech is being invested in overseas. Any green H2 produced here will likely be used to decarbonise indiustry here and for export. AIR will no doubt try to spin the use of grey H2 by using carbon capture or carbon offsets.

We should be using green H2 in industrial processes rather than pretending we can have a cheap aviation sector but without emissions. Industrial's aren't as sexy as aviation.

[Zaphod]

However, quite a few electric cars employ regenerative braking to harvest and re-store some of the energy back to the batteries (instead of burning it off at conventional brake pads) when braking and extend their range that way. That won't be an option with electric planes.....

You could potentially generate power by changing how reverse thrust for turbofan or turboprop jets is implemented, or for any type of descent maneuver. I still remain highly skeptical of large-scale electrification of aircraft at this point however.

[peat]

My Li-Ion battery electric mower is getting a bit gutless after only 3 years.
Cant see this current (lol) technolgy giving the longevity neccesary to make the investment wortwhile.
Its not particularly relevant i guess but this first experience with replacing an ICE with electric battery isnt impressing me

i couldve put this in the electric car thread

[Zaphod]

True - always wondered how birds can fly for many thousand of km's without rest when they have just this incredibly inefficient biofuel on board :):

To determine the range there are clearly other parameters to consider than just the energy density of the fuel storage container ...

I think you've presented a really good example. The biological processes involved are very efficient, and it shows that a relatively small storage capacity can be used for a very long journey due to the "other parameters" involved.


My Li-Ion battery electric mower is getting a bit gutless after only 3 years.
Cant see this current (lol) technolgy giving the longevity neccesary to make the investment wortwhile.
Its not particularly relevant i guess but this first experience with replacing an ICE with electric battery isnt impressing me
i couldve put this in the electric car thread

The pure-electric buses placed in Wellington around 2018 have around 60-70% battery capacity left after nearly 4 years of service. From this you can gather electric planes will require a huge change to the maintenance schedules , supply chain, and technologies etc. It's certainly not as easy as replacing your lawnmower battery, assuming they haven't discontinued it so you now have to purchase a brand new mower! These issues will take some time to address.

[Beagle]

Anyone remember the early issues AIR had with its lithium ion Dreamliner battery system ? Fire risk if you make those batteries 100 times bigger ?

[Dassets]

True - always wondered how birds can fly for many thousand of km's without rest when they have just this incredibly inefficient biofuel on board :):

12969

12970

To determine the range there are clearly other parameters to consider than just the energy density of the fuel storage container ...

Prevailing wind methinks

[Beagle]

Prevailing wind methinks

Yes and not to forget quite a bit of "refueling" along the way. https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/how-do-tired-birds-choose-where-to-stop-during-migration/

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126411262/air-nz-reveals-the-millions-it-loses-due-to-lockdown-and-suspended-tasman-travel

Air NZ reveals the millions it loses due to lockdown and suspended Tasman travel



Alert level 3 or 4 travel restrictions across New Zealand cost Air New Zealand between $45 million and $55m a month, the airline says.

In an update to the New Zealand stock exchange on Friday morning the national carrier said the monthly impact of an Auckland-only level 3 or 4 travel restriction, with the rest of New Zealand operating at level 1 or 2 is about $25m to $35m.

The figures include the benefits of the any wage subsidy the airline received, it said.

Air New Zealand received about $17m in wage subsidies for the Delta outbreak.



The monthly impact of suspension of trans-Tasman travel is about $20m to $25m, it said.



The company recently requested additional drawdowns on a government loan facility. Drawdowns, including the latest request, total $435m, with $1.065 billion remaining in the facility.

The airline is operating about 50 cargo flights per week and there is strong demand for air travel across regions in New Zealand that are under level 2 restrictions.


What's holding up the SP again ? ;)


Does AIR have a Special ROBERTSON exemption to allow it to trade while tetering (sorry plummeting) towards Insolvency ? ;)

[Maxtrade]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126411262/air-nz-reveals-the-millions-it-loses-due-to-lockdown-and-suspended-tasman-travel

Air NZ reveals the millions it loses due to lockdown and suspended Tasman travel











What's holding up the SP again ? ;)


Does AIR have a Special ROBERTSON exemption to allow it to trade while tetering (sorry plummeting) towards Insolvency ? ;)

Makes no sense SP is holding over 1.5!? When NZ is still yet to get hit with Delta or the next variant, which will undoubtedly happen once boarders reopen, it's inevitable. The effects are yet to be experienced here. How on earth is the SP not steadily declining? Let alone the debt AIR NZ is racking up in the mean time. To become profitable, pay off debt, capital raise looming, I am surprised investors aren't selling off heavily already??

Thoughts?

[mikelee]

yes, it'll be one of the greatest mystery of the century. Considering that AIR doesn't have a large property portfolio like AIA to prop up its SP.

[Waltzing]

What if the SHAZ just keep buying ... and the govt says no cap raise... just more debt.

[nztx]

What if the SHAZ just keep buying ... and the govt says no cap raise... just more debt.


Them Birds will be looking more Insolvent in that case
(Not the ones parked up in Dessert with sand up to the top of the wheels
now only hosting Snakes + Crawlies Wildlife get-togethers)
The Beehive Socialists will have even more of a headache trying to fathom
what the H*ll is going on.. and if a different bolder shade of Red is needed..
and the Cleaners around the Exec Office will be even more confused
when they were lead to believe Free Shares = a chance at Steering Wheel
rather than staying on their own broomsticks doing low circuits of the office..

;)

[Waltzing]

"bolder shade of Red is needed"

is there a new rural party on the horizon then...

[Sideshow Bob]

From Business Desk this morning on the Wage Subsidy:

Almost 60 businesses have claimed more than $1 million in the latest round of the wage subsidy as of September 18.
Leading the way again is Air NZ which claimed $17.2m for more than 7,000 staff as of Sept 18. The national carrier has now received $130m in wage subsidies since the beginning of the pandemic.

[Maxtrade]

From Business Desk this morning on the Wage Subsidy:

Almost 60 businesses have claimed more than $1 million in the latest round of the wage subsidy as of September 18.
Leading the way again is Air NZ which claimed $17.2m for more than 7,000 staff as of Sept 18. The national carrier has now received $130m in wage subsidies since the beginning of the pandemic.

Yet the share price climbs into mid 1.6 on the rise. The markets are seemingly irrational these days. The amount of debt AIR NZ will have once boarders reopen seem to be being ignored by retail investors? Not to mention the Cap Raise which will further dilute shareholders positions. But maybe somehow the SP will simply ignore all this and have enough believers holding the SP up not following basic business fundamentals and factoring in realistic P/E.

Cant really make sense of the SP getting above 1.6, who is buying??

[Beagle]

Yet the share price climbs into mid 1.6 on the rise. The markets are seemingly irrational these days. The amount of debt AIR NZ will have once boarders reopen seem to be being ignored by retail investors? Not to mention the Cap Raise which will further dilute shareholders positions. But maybe somehow the SP will simply ignore all this and have enough believers holding the SP up not following basic business fundamentals and factoring in realistic P/E.

Cant really make sense of the SP getting above 1.6, who is buying??

Last I heard retail N.Z. holders only own 3% of the company and AIR was the most popular share to purchase on the Sharsies platform.
Therefore the answer is overseas institutions who believe in the reopening trade and the above.

I think they're absolutely nuts...but if people are determined to stand in front of a train screaming downhill at 100 miles an hour...

[Sideshow Bob]

Last I heard retail N.Z. holders only own 3% of the company and AIR was the most popular share to purchase on the Sharsies platform.
Therefore the answer is overseas institutions who believe in the reopening trade and the above.

I think they're absolutely nuts...but if people are determined to stand in front of a train screaming downhill at 100 miles an hour...

As of last annual report, 51,890 shareholders.

24,290 <1,000 shares. 1.03% of issued shares.

17,179 1,000-5,000 shares 3.88% of issued shares.

5,076 5,000-10,000 shares 3.42% of shares on issue

So 46,545 own 8.33% of AIR.

Top 20 own 71.18% of AIR.

Not sure if Sharises is under their name of shareholders counted individually. Only need about 1.7m share (0.15%) to get into the top 20, and nothing obvious says Sharsies in the top 20.

[Arbroath]

As of last annual report, 51,890 shareholders.

24,290 <1,000 shares. 1.03% of issued shares.

17,179 1,000-5,000 shares 3.88% of issued shares.

5,076 5,000-10,000 shares 3.42% of shares on issue

So 46,545 own 8.33% of AIR.

Top 20 own 71.18% of AIR.

Not sure if Sharises is under their name of shareholders counted individually. Only need about 1.7m share (0.15%) to get into the top 20, and nothing obvious says Sharsies in the top 20.

So Retail is about 17% of the free float (ignoring the NZ Govt stake) which is pretty large. It's basically nuts.
Imho those that understand cashflow and balance sheets have sold and its $1.60 because not many want to short it, or can't get stock to short it? Air was worth about NZ$3bn equity before Covid and is still NZ$1.8bn of equity "market" value now.
Get ready for Q1'22 when they have to raise well over NZ$1bn of which virtually nothing will go to the business, pretty much all to pay off debt to NZ Govt and IRD delayed paye etc...

Who here remembers Nuplex raising at 27c to pay the bank debt down?

[winner69]

So Retail is about 17% of the free float (ignoring the NZ Govt stake) which is pretty large. It's basically nuts.
Imho those that understand cashflow and balance sheets have sold and its $1.60 because not many want to short it, or can't get stock to short it? Air was worth about NZ$3bn equity before Covid and is still NZ$1.8bn of equity "market" value now.
Get ready for Q1'22 when they have to raise well over NZ$1bn of which virtually nothing will go to the business, pretty much all to pay off debt to NZ Govt and IRD delayed paye etc...

Who here remembers Nuplex raising at 27c to pay the bank debt down?

...and who remembers the Govt putting heaps of cash into AIR while other existing shareholders at the time weren't asked for anything diluting their holdings to stuff

This time around minority shareholders might be lucky to 'own' 10% to 15% of AIR - after debt converted to equity and a bit more thrown into

[peat]

remember tho
the market can be irrational longer than one stay solvent (talking to myself)

[Animeart]

more executives heading out the door can't be a good sign

[biker]

more executives heading out the door can't be a good sign

Who’s going?

[jmsnz]

Who here remembers Nuplex raising at 27c to pay the bank debt down?
Yes! It was a lesson I am not keen to repeat and so like most here can see absolutely no reason why you would own any airline at this time

[Dassets]

Sharesies own 57,764,604 or 5.14%, 2nd largest owner, in the 21 AR, up circa 12.5m shares over the 12 months from the 20 AR. From AR19 to 20 sharesies brought 38m shares. I would guess since the 21 AR date cutoff the sharesies holding will be much higher, I gues 5m shares. Might check tomorrow if anyone wants to know.

[Sideshow Bob]

Sharesies own 57,764,604 or 5.14%, 2nd largest owner, in the 21 AR, up circa 12.5m shares over the 12 months from the 20 AR. From AR19 to 20 sharesies brought 38m shares. I would guess since the 21 AR date cutoff the sharesies holding will be much higher, I gues 5m shares. Might check tomorrow if anyone wants to know.

Nice one Dassets.

For my learning, where do you find this info??

[Snow Leopard]

Nice one Dassets.

For my learning, where do you find this info??


Sharesies own 57,764,604 or 5.14%, 2nd largest owner, in the 21 AR, up circa 12.5m shares over the 12 months from the 20 AR. From AR19 to 20 sharesies brought 38m shares. I would guess since the 21 AR date cutoff the sharesies holding will be much higher, I gues 5m shares. Might check tomorrow if anyone wants to know.

AR = Annual Report?

Beware of the Leopard.

[Sideshow Bob]

AR = Annual Report?

Beware of the Leopard.

Then Sharises collective is the 2nd biggest holder and is under "New Zealand Depository Nominee". Presumably this is what Sharsies hold their customers shares under?

[peat]

some waivers granted today around material transactions and related parties
somethin' is brewin'.

[causecelebre]

Air NZ drops to 20th on SkyTrax World Airline Awards. Just for reference Aeroflot is 14th. No disrespect to Aeroflot, lol, I had one of my most interesting flights on that airline in the mid '90's

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/air-rage-instagram-glamour-model-hannah-pierson-remorseful-for-her-actions/YAGTJZHYHCZPXDOZJUOGOLNWXU/

Pretty serious air rage incident. Imagine how others on the plane felt when she threatened to blow up the plane !

One wonders if the Judiciary need to make an example of this sort of thing and give her a stretch of incarceration with plenty of time to be really remorseful.

I hope AIR have banned her for the rest of her life.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/air-rage-instagram-glamour-model-hannah-pierson-remorseful-for-her-actions/YAGTJZHYHCZPXDOZJUOGOLNWXU/

Pretty serious air rage incident. Imagine how others on the plane felt when she threatened to blow up the plane !

One wonders if the Judiciary need to make an example of this sort of thing and give her a stretch of incarceration with plenty of time to be really remorseful.

I hope AIR have banned her for the rest of her life.


Indeed .. punishment seems a bit light

A whole plainload of victims affected by this ditsy not just one - probably all deserve $1000 each
and the fouth mouthed blonde ditsy made to swim anywhere or use a canoe in future ;)

Was the beak blind or just blinded by the shine off her forehead after reading it's sparse sob-sheet ? ;)

[Beagle]

Indeed .. punishment seems a bit light

A whole plainload of victims affected by this ditsy not just one - probably all deserve $1000 each
and the fouth mouthed blonde ditsy made to swim anywhere or use a canoe in future ;)

Was the beak blind or just blinded by the shine off her forehead after reading the sob sheet ? ;)

Gosh...you can see how brawls erupt on aircraft (huge issue now with some passengers taking face masks off in flight) can't you !

[biker]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/air-rage-instagram-glamour-model-hannah-pierson-remorseful-for-her-actions/YAGTJZHYHCZPXDOZJUOGOLNWXU/

Pretty serious air rage incident. Imagine how others on the plane felt when she threatened to blow up the plane !

One wonders if the Judiciary need to make an example of this sort of thing and give her a stretch of incarceration with plenty of time to be really remorseful.

I hope AIR have banned her for the rest of her life.

What was the actual sentence?

[nztx]

What was the actual sentence?


12 mths intensive supervised time (probably on Insto) & 500 bucks for emotional
harm to the Air NZ crew guy ;)

wonder how he managed to suffer emotional harm ? Did he get kicked or bitten ? ;)

Poor guy being subjected to that .. next time open the cargo shute to get rid of problem fast ;)

The AIR Top Brass should award him at least 10,000 shares for the H&S issues arising at such a
great height in dealing with totally sober 'self entitled' jumped up custies :)

[Swala]

they all say the same thing..."it's too good an opportunity to pass up bla bla bla"
and in reality there is just little loyalty in most business, more $ and a more senior title is all it takes to persuade people to move on

the brain drain hasn't stopped since the pandemic started (or since the new CEO joined) but makes little difference indeed, until the business is up and running full steam ahead at least.

Think 22 years service to a Company demonstrates a certain amount of loyalty....

[Sideshow Bob]

Meanwhile, up 2.5% today.....

Presumably as people see international flights closer with Australia saying they are open for the double-jabbed, and then AIR saying over the weekend also have to be double-jabbed to fly internationally with them.

[iceman]

This shows how quickly tourism will pick up when countries open borders & people are fully vaccinated. Unlike our never ending border closures https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/us-europe-reopening-followed-by-surge-in-bookings/

[winner69]

This shows how quickly tourism will pick up when countries open borders & people are fully vaccinated. Unlike our never ending border closures https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/us-europe-reopening-followed-by-surge-in-bookings/

Iceman. that's one cool chart eh

Unfortunately it's hard to see NZ'ers and AIR enjoying that freedom for a while ......lost opportunities

[Sideshow Bob]

This shows how quickly tourism will pick up when countries open borders & people are fully vaccinated. Unlike our never ending border closures https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/us-europe-reopening-followed-by-surge-in-bookings/

Great chart! Presume would be both domestic and international.

Currently over 20% of Kiwis are unvaccinated, so realistically don't have many places to go, if any.

Will be interesting to see the appetite for travel - short hop to Australia with reciprocal health agreements. How many would think twice before a long-haul flight to another country?? Travel insurance??

[iceman]

Iceman. that's one cool chart eh

Unfortunately it's hard to see NZ'ers and AIR enjoying that freedom for a while ......lost opportunities

Since the Biden Admin announced last week ( or 2) fully vaccinated Europeans will be allowed in from November, ticket sales have hit 70% of 2019 levels. Same from US to Europe. Agree about NZ missing out

[Maxtrade]

Has there been some news which would explain why AIA has been rallying strongly today?

[Maxtrade]

Has there been some news which would explain why AIA has been rallying strongly today?


Probably just slowly growing confidence that air travel is going to resume - some day!

When boarders open, subsequently NZ will first be exposed to seeing the true effects of Covid. We are 6-12 months behind the rest of the world in this aspect. On one hand we might expect tourism to flow. On the other we will start seeing 1000'2 more cases and it won't take long at all before our limited ICU beds, doctors and nursing staff, ventilators etc are at max capacity. In turn we will start to see what it really means to have Covid. Up until now we have been shielded. Even if we do reach 90% vaccination rates we will still likely see these events play out seeing we are not as well equiped in NZ compared to the medical capacity in the states for example.

So although boarders might be open once we start seeing the health system get overwhelmed it may have a negative affect on tourism due to the situation we will be in. Which also may result in lockdowns being re-established if our hospitals aren't coping.

Would anyone agree it might be premature to see AIR and AIA share prices heading north prematurely here. It is good to be positive and optimistic, but at the same time we have a lot of reality to deal with ahead. NZ is small, limited health system capacity, this is what is different and may still affect our tourism market for longer than some may realise.

Thoughts on this?

[Animeart]

Has there been some news which would explain why AIA has been rallying strongly today?

People really like the in coming CEO maybe?

[nztx]

People really like the in coming CEO maybe?


why ? - have they agreed to come in a couple of hours a day & on reduced salary, while nothing much is up in the air ? ;)

[Animeart]

No idea, but while she's on site doing AIR business don't bet on her keeping her hands out of AIA business altogether ;-)
Change usually raise hope of better road ahead and her good look probably gives shareholders a positive impression too lol.

[peat]

well I hope all the folks expressing their negative views are getting their shorts on. I need some help here !

in fact I'm reducing already - best not to be obstinate in ones trades and take one on the chin when necessary. Thanks to Z for compensating.

[Dassets]

For international Air doesn't have to meet any ETS costs as it is carved out. Having said that one could ask for how long that will continue AND how will long haul tourists/consumers react as they become more woke to carbon and other gases spewing out over the Pacific. Already on Skyscanner you can choose your flights for the lowest carbon. I think AIR(and tourism in general) is in big trouble on this and long haul will never be the same. COVID has just merely focused people on wellness of themselves and the planet. Hey if that is a third of past travellers for instance, well they ain't coming back and that is bad.

Oh and don't think I have seen this stat on here but in the FY21 year almost 20% of the revenue recorded was pure subsidy/handout from the govt or (and get this stat!!) $58T per living being working for them. As I have said the most expensive dole program in the country and maybe globally.

[Sideshow Bob]

More Govt subsidy....

Air NZ awarded international cargo flights to March 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380749)

[777]

For international Air doesn't have to meet any ETS costs as it is carved out. Having said that one could ask for how long that will continue AND how will long haul tourists/consumers react as they become more woke to carbon and other gases spewing out over the Pacific. Already on Skyscanner you can choose your flights for the lowest carbon. I think AIR(and tourism in general) is in big trouble on this and long haul will never be the same. COVID has just merely focused people on wellness of themselves and the planet. Hey if that is a third of past travellers for instance, well they ain't coming back and that is bad.

Oh and don't think I have seen this stat on here but in the FY21 year almost 20% of the revenue recorded was pure subsidy/handout from the govt or (and get this stat!!) $58T per living being working for them. As I have said the most expensive dole program in the country and maybe globally.

And how much was paid to other airlines by the NZ government to help keep up the inflow/outflow of freight? They would just get AirNZ share if your wish was satisfied.

[Dassets]

Sure that is pretty easy. AIR is pretty much the only one. On the MIAC scheme AIR conducts 78.2% of flights weekly. Put another way 8 airlines share 21.8% of flights granted while 1 airline has 78.2%. I could work out an approx $ number but have better things to do with 15 mins. On the wage subsidy front I wouldn't have thought any other airline would get one. Hadn't all other NZ based other airline crew gone before any wage subsidy post 30 June 2020. It doesn't make a difference anyway to AIR. It is basically a propped up benefit scheme.

And no. By folding AIR you can realign it to its mission. Freight carrier. Long haul leisure pax is effectively over due to COVID and carbon. Then realign pay.

[BlackPeter]

Not saying its comparable, but still interesting - Delta (and this is the airline, not the virus variant ...) reporting a Q3 profit (though expressing concerns about rising fuel prices for the outlook):

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/investing/delta-earnings/index.html

[nztx]

Sure that is pretty easy. AIR is pretty much the only one. On the MIAC scheme AIR conducts 78.2% of flights weekly. Put another way 8 airlines share 21.8% of flights granted while 1 airline has 78.2%. I could work out an approx $ number but have better things to do with 15 mins. On the wage subsidy front I wouldn't have thought any other airline would get one. Hadn't all other NZ based other airline crew gone before any wage subsidy post 30 June 2020. It doesn't make a difference anyway to AIR. It is basically a propped up benefit scheme.

And no. By folding AIR you can realign it to its mission. Freight carrier. Long haul leisure pax is effectively over due to COVID and carbon. Then realign pay.


I think Grant is too busy directly Covid Border Traffic numbers to be overly bothered on the AIR Cloud formations currently ;)

The fill-in naughty schoolboy must have been put outside on detention for a few days ;)

[Marilyn Munroe]

Virgin( Underarm Bowlers Division ) have announced they will resume international Australia Fiji flights in the near future.

No announcements about resuming crossing the ditch though.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-australia-approves-quarantine-free-travel-for-the-south-island/EI3FBJPGOQX44DLBM6KJZH4OQU

Covid-19 Delta outbreak: Australia approves quarantine-free travel for the South Island

SI Declaration of Independence from the Northern Isles expected in days too ? ;)

SP might take 1 1/2 strides in this news ;)

[Dassets]

Every defeated army marched to defeat. However you are right, will be painful today pour moi. But my crystallising event was always the capital raise. BTW AIR should swap all thier B777 plus cash for 2 RNZAF 757. Those 757 can be configured for freight. The price of freight birds has gone through the roof. The 757 are on the way out. Hell you might even use the cash to buy Cindy the Mexican 787 presidential plane which is unsailable. She could have her wedding on it, be transported to the honeymoon and consumate the marriage in the state room. Three birds in the hand.

[dobby41]

SI Declaration of Independence from the Northern Isles expected in days too ? ;)

Cut the cable too.
Keep SI power for SI industry.
Quickly get the Internet cable in from Southland to Australia.

[mikelee]

I read that Bali has opened up to several countries, including NZ! But so far, no international flights scheduled to fly there at all.:ohmy:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Potential daily head and shoulders? Low risk, high reward short entry for the setting of the the monthly lower higher.

Disc: Short.

13126

[peat]

Potential daily head and shoulders?

you know it needs to cross the neck.

[Snow Leopard]

I hear AIR is going to start flying Sydney - Los Angeles with a comfort stop in Auckland starting November.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

you know it needs to cross the neck.

Of course. I will typically make entries on the right shoulder with a stop above the head high if lines up with what I'm looking for in the longer term picture (monthly lower higher). This makes the risk as small as possible (however higher failure rate). No issues getting stopped out and losing a few cents per share when the potential profit is 20+ cents per share.

[BlackPeter]

I hear AIR is going to start flying Sydney - Los Angeles with a comfort stop in Auckland starting November.

Does the comfort stop include the 2 weeks NZ MIQ to give passengers an opportunity to pick up the Auckland Covid strain?

[Marilyn Munroe]

I hear AIR is going to start flying Sydney - Los Angeles with a comfort stop in Auckland starting November.

Robertson Airlines would have to offer seats on this dog leg route at a large discount enticeing passengers to forgo the convenience of direct SYD --> LAX flights.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn