AIR - Air NZ.

[Dassets]

Just be an extension of one of the cargo flights. I follow flightradar and the cargo flights. You would be amazed. There are AIR buzzing here there and everywhere with passenger planes empty up top and full in the belly. Pretty much like the politicians and executives operating this welfare scheme. Empty up top and a full belly of tax payers money.

I would love to know how much they lose per flight. One of the full time analysts would know if the models were any good.

[Raz]

The mugs restructured through first lock down so most cabin crew are now based in Auckland meaning they can't currently fly out of the south island into Australia...detest these idiots get a slice of tax payers money..act like a National Airline you not Air Auckland!

[BlackPeter]

LOL - just noticed that AIR passed the golden cross (using EMA 50 and EMA 200). Maybe these indicators are not that good after all ...?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Cash burn guidance withdrawn and loan drawdown expected to be >$900m in Feb 22. The capital raise should be a doozy.

Time to test that neckline...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381749

[winner69]

Cash burn guidance withdrawn and loan drawdown expected to be >$900m in Feb 22. The capital raise should be a doozy.

Time to test that neckline...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381749

Minority Shareholders won’t be asked to donate to the cause ……debt converted to equity with a bit more thrown in and the government will own about 85% ……minority left with 15% …painful

[Sideshow Bob]

Down 2.5c. Share price resilance continues to amaze.....:confused:

Stays higher than their planes.

[Baa_Baa]

Minority Shareholders won’t be asked to donate to the cause ……debt converted to equity with a bit more thrown in and the government will own about 85% ……minority left with 15% …painful

It makes me wonder whether current shareholders actually understand what this means, to their shareholding and its value. Or maybe they do, but don't think it will happen.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/381749/357948.pdf

Pages 11 & 12 are very interesting. Only $1,045m liquidity remaining and much of that will be passenger pre-paid travel and ostensibly all gone by the end of February 2022 :eek2:

Airpoints worth anything in March 2022 or spend them now ?

[peat]

How can they publish this today ?

13150

when this yesterday
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-new-zealand-cancels-more-domestic-flights-into-december/RE2UQXJB2NGRIVWIN62B3JOY7M/
Air New Zealand cancellation of domestic flights into early December has sparked customer anger and complaints to the Commerce Commission.
One customer said the airline was "currently doing mass cancellations" of domestic flights

And notice how their comments are all past tense

[Beagle]

That registers a big fat "Corporate B.S." to this dog's nose and makes me wonder what else in their presentation is also B.S. :eek2:
Better redeem those airpoints in case they decide with a stroke of the pen in early 2022 the whole airpoints system needs to be "improved" which is almost always code speak in the Aviation industry for radically undermining the value thereof.

[couta1]

They are adding additional seats after they have cancelled the previous existing ones but at double to triple the price. Lol

[peat]

They are adding additional seats after they have cancelled the previous existing ones but at double to triple the price. Lol

I guess you do what you gotta do, and shareholders can be pleased, but warrapakakarrnts

[Dassets]

They haven't really withdrawn cashfliw guidance. It is still there. Jan and Feb basically circa $125m per month in the hole with one of the 3 IRD Payments still to make. But what I don't get is they repeated what MoF said. The company not stable enough for the govt to support a cap raise. Are people not reading this?? In the zombie airline wars AIR the king zombie. Will expand my position I think. Only 4 months to go. I stick with my forecasts. Net assets to basically nil at cap raise, can't believe they can get a waiver so we will see an offer doc. Cash issue 50 cents. For 8 months I had quantum at 1.5b firm. Now $1.5 to $2b. That will leave around $1b in cash. Credits keep rising. Second cash issue $750m late 2022.

[causecelebre]

...Airpoints worth anything in March 2022 or spend them now ?

I recently saw an enterprising seller on a well known NZ auction and classifieds site selling a new iPhone. That twiist was the seller was using airpoints as a proxy of sorts to pay for it and have it dropped shipped directly to the buyer.

[causecelebre]

double post

[Beagle]

I recently saw an enterprising seller on a well known NZ auction and classifieds site selling a new iPhone. That twiist was the seller was using airpoints as a proxy of sorts to pay for it and have it dropped shipped directly to the buyer.

Sounds like a cunning plan :)

[Blue Skies]

AIR set to make another substantial call on govt's 1.5B standby fund as domestic & business travel hit hard by latest lockdown restrictions, with airline operating at only 40% normal levels.
Already drawn down $445M but expected to grow to $900M by end of Feb.
Previously said burning through $25-$35M month but no longer forecasting how much due ongoing uncertainty.

(Sorry, this much a repeat of earlier posts today. )

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/454458/air-nz-to-dip-into-govt-standby-fund-after-latest-covid-19-restrictions

[winner69]

Pretty cool …. eplane flew across Cook Strait Blenheim to Wellington

[peat]

Pretty cool …. eplane flew across Cook Strait Blenheim to Wellington

its been swum too mate :p

[Maxtrade]

AIR set to make another substantial call on govt's 1.5B standby fund as domestic & business travel hit hard by latest lockdown restrictions, with airline operating at only 40% normal levels.
Already drawn down $445M but expected to grow to $900M by end of Feb.
Previously said burning through $25-$35M month but no longer forecasting how much due ongoing uncertainty.

(Sorry, this much a repeat of earlier posts today. )

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/454458/air-nz-to-dip-into-govt-standby-fund-after-latest-covid-19-restrictions

Yet the SP still holds steady. Is it possible the belief that all will be back to normal again at some point in the future is enough to prevent the SP from falling much lower (to levels discussed earlier in this thread). Even with the massive accumulated debt and looming capital raise. Which will in turn dilute existing share holders as the Government would secure the majority of Cap raise shares at a discounted price. Then the funds from the Cap Raise Air NZ will need to use to pay back the government the $900M loan. Works out well for the government, not so well for existing share holders. Yet the SP continues to disregard these fundamentals.

OR the other way of looking at it is even if shareholders are technically diluted, does it really matter? It would only matter if Air NZ had a takeover or the business was sold. Only then would the fact shares had been diluted would become relevant as the shareholders would receive less per share of the takeover bid/ sale of the business. But what's the likelihood of that ever happening? As long as there is no takeover sale of Air New Zealand, then all shareholders really care about are dividend returns and the SP. Dividends won't be there for a long long way off. But at least if the belief in the company keeps the SP up then the argument that shareholders will be diluted would be irrelevant wouldn't it?

[mikelee]

Yeah, it's probably fine if you're retired and only interested in dividend. Would be hard for someone looking to pull out and invest in something else once the share is diluted and SP tank.

[BlackPeter]

Yet the SP still holds steady. Is it possible the belief that all will be back to normal again at some point in the future is enough to prevent the SP from falling much lower (to levels discussed earlier in this thread). Even with the massive accumulated debt and looming capital raise. Which will in turn dilute existing share holders as the Government would secure the majority of Cap raise shares at a discounted price. Then the funds from the Cap Raise Air NZ will need to use to pay back the government the $900M loan. Works out well for the government, not so well for existing share holders. Yet the SP continues to disregard these fundamentals.

OR the other way of looking at it is even if shareholders are technically diluted, does it really matter? It would only matter if Air NZ had a takeover or the business was sold. Only then would the fact shares had been diluted would become relevant as the shareholders would receive less per share of the takeover bid/ sale of the business. But what's the likelihood of that ever happening? As long as there is no takeover sale of Air New Zealand, then all shareholders really care about are dividend returns and the SP. Dividends won't be there for a long long way off. But at least if the belief in the company keeps the SP up then the argument that shareholders will be diluted would be irrelevant wouldn't it?

Not quite. Whatever dividend the company chooses to distribute - it will be diluted for existing holders.

This is a very real impact on any holders purse ...

Obviously - if you just hold for the enjoyment of the registry statement without being interested in earning dividends, than you right - in this case it would not matter to you unless you want to sell at some stage.

I suspect that at some stage the other shareholders will notice that their dividend yields will be terribly diluted and adjust the share price accordingly :p ;

[Arbroath]

Not quite. Whatever dividend the company chooses to distribute - it will be diluted for existing holders.

This is a very real impact on any holders purse ...

Obviously - if you just hold for the enjoyment of the registry statement without being interested in earning dividends, than you right - in this case it would not matter to you unless you want to sell at some stage.

I suspect that at some stage the other shareholders will notice that their dividend yields will be terribly diluted and adjust the share price accordingly :p ;

It reminds me of the road runner cartoon....keep running in thin air until you realise you're off the edge of the cliff

[Sideshow Bob]

Talk of dividends is several years premature.

Once get more widely to 90% double-jab and back flying with perhaps reintroduction of the TT bubble, or wider services, then might make the capital raise more palatable to those who continue to hold on hope.

[peat]

I personally think it was a good move to include a recent test in the requirements for travel and not just allow double vaxxed. Of course they want to keep as many potential clients as possible and gives everyone an option to travel. Only really extreme anti-vaxxers wont take a test if they want to travel I imagine so cuts out virtually no one.

Disc short but reduced and reluctant now tbh.

[Sideshow Bob]

I personally think it was a good move to include a recent test in the requirements for travel and not just allow double vaxxed. Of course they want to keep as many potential clients as possible and gives everyone an option to travel. Only really extreme anti-vaxxers wont take a test if they want to travel I imagine so cuts out virtually no one.

Disc short but reduced and reluctant now tbh.

Indeed.

But internationally will need to be double-vaxxed, to enter other countries if nothing else.

[Maxtrade]

Not quite. Whatever dividend the company chooses to distribute - it will be diluted for existing holders.

This is a very real impact on any holders purse ...

Obviously - if you just hold for the enjoyment of the registry statement without being interested in earning dividends, than you right - in this case it would not matter to you unless you want to sell at some stage.

I suspect that at some stage the other shareholders will notice that their dividend yields will be terribly diluted and adjust the share price accordingly :p ;

Understood. Just trying to make sense of why the SP has pushed back up to 1.7 which doesn't really make a lot of sense. The only real logic is that investors are not seeing Air NZ as a dividend paying investment but rather as an undervalued stock. Brushing aside the massive debt and looming shares dilution. Obviously those investors aren't concerned about receiving any dividends, nor fearful of any take-over or sale of Air NZ - and therefore their shares being diluted might be seen as 'irrelevant', as long as they expect the SP to push back up to the $2-$3 range in time when travel resumes in the next year or so. ie seeing it as an undervalued stock rather than a dividend investment. Shares being diluted would only come into play for dividends or sale of the company. It appears there are more investors that aren't concerned about either of these aspects, and are more focused on reopening of boarders and travel resuming, in turn providing support to a rallying SP?

I cant really understand the sense of it either, I would have expected to see the SP pushed below 1.5 and slowly decline. Trying to understand how it has and continues to hold so much support. It is common knowledge about the levels of debt and the only obvious way out being a Cap Raise to pay the loan back to the government. Yet even with this well known the SP holds support??

[BlackPeter]

Understood. Just trying to make sense of why the SP has pushed back up to 1.7 which doesn't really make a lot of sense. The only real logic is that investors are not seeing Air NZ as a dividend paying investment but rather as an undervalued stock. Brushing aside the massive debt and looming shares dilution. Obviously those investors aren't concerned about receiving any dividends, nor fearful of any take-over or sale of Air NZ - and therefore their shares being diluted might be seen as 'irrelevant', as long as they expect the SP to push back up to the $2-$3 range in time when travel resumes in the next year or so. ie seeing it as an undervalued stock rather than a dividend investment. Shares being diluted would only come into play for dividends or sale of the company. It appears there are more investors that aren't concerned about either of these aspects, and are more focused on reopening of boarders and travel resuming, in turn providing support to a rallying SP?

I cant really understand the sense of it either, I would have expected to see the SP pushed below 1.5 and slowly decline. Trying to understand how it has and continues to hold so much support. It is common knowledge about the levels of debt and the only obvious way out being a Cap Raise to pay the loan back to the government. Yet even with this well known the SP holds support??

Just apply the usual formula: Share price = underlying value + hype.

Obviously - the underlying value will drop when the shares are diluted ... and no matter which historic measure you apply, (like e.g. NTA or current earnings capability) AIR's underlying value is already today (prior to dilution) ways below the share price.

If you look into the earnings potential, than you obviously need to predict the future earnings (which are unknown) and it depends on which future earnings you assume (anybody's best guess). However - one needs to be pretty optimistic to make the current share price look reasonable.

Leaves hype - Hype is driven by irrational but very strong human traits: fear and greed. Fear of missing out, the hope and expectation to always find a bigger fool and group think. Good examples for securities without any underlying value are cryptocurrencies - who would have thought that anybody pays $100000 for a mathematical construct with no underlying value and which can be replicated by others in unlimited numbers (Bitcoin)?

I'd put the current share price for AIR into the same category. Hard to understand, impossible to predict but hey - perception is reality. Great stuff for traders (particularly if they can predict hype ;) ), but clearly no investment material.

[Sideshow Bob]

Understood. Just trying to make sense of why the SP has pushed back up to 1.7 which doesn't really make a lot of sense. The only real logic is that investors are not seeing Air NZ as a dividend paying investment but rather as an undervalued stock. Brushing aside the massive debt and looming shares dilution. Obviously those investors aren't concerned about receiving any dividends, nor fearful of any take-over or sale of Air NZ - and therefore their shares being diluted might be seen as 'irrelevant', as long as they expect the SP to push back up to the $2-$3 range in time when travel resumes in the next year or so. ie seeing it as an undervalued stock rather than a dividend investment. Shares being diluted would only come into play for dividends or sale of the company. It appears there are more investors that aren't concerned about either of these aspects, and are more focused on reopening of boarders and travel resuming, in turn providing support to a rallying SP?

I cant really understand the sense of it either, I would have expected to see the SP pushed below 1.5 and slowly decline. Trying to understand how it has and continues to hold so much support. It is common knowledge about the levels of debt and the only obvious way out being a Cap Raise to pay the loan back to the government. Yet even with this well known the SP holds support??

I suspect it could be as simple as investors/punters thinking that if it is at $1.60-$1.70 through recent lockdowns and heavy restrictions in/out of Auckland, then going to be higher once they start flying back with the domestic network, and then even higher again once get back internationally. Ignoring all those peripheral things like govt loans, capital raises, cash burning, writedowns, fuel costs, inflation, risk of further outbreaks etc etc.

Not like its the only investment around divorced from fundamentals, priced on some utopian vision decades away and defying logic.......

[Dassets]

Looks like my forecast for the lockdown was ok. I did think back then late Nov early Dec but didn't want to scare people so I can handle the 3 month top end of my forecast being 2 weeks short.:D


Surely that is it for AIRNZ now. The lockdown likely to go for 2-3 months. that is cash out at the peak of last year plus add on the new 787s arrivals. Why they rehired some staff last year was way to premature. Unfortunately, imo, the aircraft have been running on more than fuel. They have been running on blind hope. Never a reliable winning strategy. Try to save what will be needed ie basic domestic, trans tasman, some Pacific not all, and a little Asia. Everything else gone.

Also I know there were not too many believers here of the eradication strategy. So it is cold comfort seeing the EU open up and USA/Canada. But, hello, if it wasn't obvious last year then the recent delta outbreak in Aust, our second closest neighbour(depending if you count Lord Howe) to NC, doomed eradication as a viable course of action.

[peat]

13201

its weird how ShareClarity value it at 1.81 using a DCF basis
I dont subscribe so cant see how they do that.

according to their method it is 6.8% UNDERvalued at current price!!!!

[Maxtrade]

Just apply the usual formula: Share price = underlying value + hype.

Obviously - the underlying value will drop when the shares are diluted ... and no matter which historic measure you apply, (like e.g. NTA or current earnings capability) AIR's underlying value is already today (prior to dilution) ways below the share price.

If you look into the earnings potential, than you obviously need to predict the future earnings (which are unknown) and it depends on which future earnings you assume (anybody's best guess). However - one needs to be pretty optimistic to make the current share price look reasonable.

Leaves hype - Hype is driven by irrational but very strong human traits: fear and greed. Fear of missing out, the hope and expectation to always find a bigger fool and group think. Good examples for securities without any underlying value are cryptocurrencies - who would have thought that anybody pays $100000 for a mathematical construct with no underlying value and which can be replicated by others in unlimited numbers (Bitcoin)?

I'd put the current share price for AIR into the same category. Hard to understand, impossible to predict but hey - perception is reality. Great stuff for traders (particularly if they can predict hype ;) ), but clearly no investment material.

Nice logical summary

[Maxtrade]

I suspect it could be as simple as investors/punters thinking that if it is at $1.60-$1.70 through recent lockdowns and heavy restrictions in/out of Auckland, then going to be higher once they start flying back with the domestic network, and then even higher again once get back internationally. Ignoring all those peripheral things like govt loans, capital raises, cash burning, writedowns, fuel costs, inflation, risk of further outbreaks etc etc.

Not like its the only investment around divorced from fundamentals, priced on some utopian vision decades away and defying logic.......

Yeah belief (or unaware/ uneducated in these aspecvts0 leading to blind faith, and FOMO of hope SP will go higher after boarders open, all while missing all the real concerns that affect a business as you have summarised.

[winner69]

This could take share price to 2 bucks

@FlyAirNZ
Is it just us or are we seeing double? 👀✈️ Welcoming the newest members of our Air New Zealand whānau, ZK-NHF and ZK-NHE. An exciting arrival as we #GetReadyForTakeOff 🌏

[Ggcc]

This could take share price to 2 bucks

@FlyAirNZ
Is it just us or are we seeing double? 👀✈️ Welcoming the newest members of our Air New Zealand whānau, ZK-NHF and ZK-NHE. An exciting arrival as we #GetReadyForTakeOff 🌏
I think you have had one too many beverages on Sunday

[Beagle]

Just keep spending capex...what could possibly go wrong :eek2: MASSIVE capital raise coming in Q1 2022, they will need at least $1.5 Billion in my opinion.
Blast from the past....yeap, could easily go to $2 again after the next 5:1 share consolidation from 40 cents
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-nz-announces-five-for-one-share-consolidation/ITNGIRFQUGG6EPKL4ITN7KUBXU/#:~:text=Air%20New%20Zealand%20is%20to%20consolida te%20its%20shares%2C,which%20was%20%22administrati vely%20cumbersome%20and%20can%20be%20confusing%22.

[BlackPeter]

Just keep spending capex...what could possibly go wrong :eek2: MASSIVE capital raise coming in Q1 2022, they will need at least $1.5 Billion in my opinion.
Blast from the past....yeap, could easily go to $2 again after the next 5:1 share consolidation from 40 cents
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-nz-announces-five-for-one-share-consolidation/ITNGIRFQUGG6EPKL4ITN7KUBXU/#:~:text=Air%20New%20Zealand%20is%20to%20consolida te%20its%20shares%2C,which%20was%20%22administrati vely%20cumbersome%20and%20can%20be%20confusing%22.

On the other hand ... we heard already that other airlines are withdrawing capacity from the NZ market thanks to our government locking us still up while the rest of the world opens up.

This could be as well an amazing opportunity for AIR ... if they are the last plane flying to this part of the world, they can charge for the tickets whatever they like.

If you think about it - this is probably the reason for the disastrous MIQ policy ... locking us up until no other airline bothers anymore to fly to NZ and when they are all gone they can open up the borders and creaming the margins from any single ticket they sell.

Government just looking at its interests as major share holder and turning AIR into a monopoly.

Discl: just playing devils advocate ... not holding and no current plans to change this status.

[Beagle]

Shane Jones would have a LOT to say about any attempt at monopolistic pricing lol
The Govt are terrified on him getting back up on his soap box :D

[peat]

locking us up until no other airline bothers anymore to fly to NZ

only takes a lil while for a o'seas airline to set up a new route.... a few months maybe a little longer...

[THEONE]

Any guesses when they will announce capital raising? surely must be soonish..

[percy]

From this mornings The Bull newsletter.
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Air New Zealand (AIZ)


TRADE THESE SHARES
The airline has been trending up since August on a brighter outlook. New Zealand Government support for the airline to March 2022 should attract buyer interest. The shares have risen from $1.365 on August 19 to trade at $1.615 on November 11. Increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates across the globe will open more travel destinations in future. I expect the shares to move up to $1.90. AIZ suits investors with a higher appetite for risk.

[BlackPeter]

only takes a lil while for a o'seas airline to set up a new route.... a few months maybe a little longer...

Sure - if they still have enough planes idling around unused and pilots able to fly them. I suspect however that the overall number of planes which can be economically operated did drop since Covid hit (many old planes put out of service for good) ... as well as the number of pilots capable and able to operate them (remember - they need a certain number of hours every year). I suspect as well that the number of trainee pilots dropped and many experienced pilots looked for a safer job during the non flight times.

Lesser planes and a lesser number of pilots might mean that airlines would give new connections to a quite remote destination low priority.

[peat]

Lesser planes and a lesser number of pilots might mean that airlines would give new connections to a quite remote destination low priority.

maybe
I'd logic it the other way, that there is now a glut of planes and pilots lookin for a way to return some capital on their investments.
so ,,,, who knows really eh?

[Beagle]

Any guesses when they will announce capital raising? surely must be soonish..

They're on record as saying ASAP in Q1 2022. They are desperate for a HUGE amount of new capital so ASAP means exactly that and they will try and paint as glossy a picture of the recovery story as they can. Its not for me but for anyone interested my tip is this. Keep a close eye on the NTA to be reported in their half year results in late February 2022 and don't pay a cent more than that figure for the price of any new shares in a capital raise. If they want more than NTA for the goodwill and future prospects, tell them they're dreaming and that philanthropic and investing activities don't mix !

[Sideshow Bob]

They're on record as saying ASAP in Q1 2022. They are desperate for a HUGE amount of new capital so ASAP means exactly that and they will try and paint as glossy a picture of the recovery story as they can. Its not for me but for anyone interested my tip is this. Keep a close eye on the NTA to be reported in their half year results in late February 2022 and don't pay a cent more than that figure for the price of any new shares in a capital raise. If they want more than NTA for the goodwill and future prospects, tell them they're dreaming and that philanthropic and investing activities don't mix !

Currently reported as $0.82 on NZX. AIR Air New Zealand Limited (NS) Ordinary Shares - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/AIR) Also in the last financial report.

Say if they lose another $200m (FY loss was $411 pre tax), then thats another $0.18cps to take off that......

[Beagle]

I am thinking more like $300m in the first half = 26.7 cps and that's just to 31 December 2021.
A wise investor considering a capital raise in say March 2022 needs to also consider the likely loss in the first quarter of 2022 as well, (say another $150m 13.3 cps) so estimated NTA as at 31 March 2022 could be as little as 42 cps. This is all pretty straightforward and easy to understand.

The really BIG QUESTIONS in order of difficulty are:-
What do the losses look like for Q4 FY22 ?
What do losses look like for FY23 ?
Might they break even in FY24 ?
What's a realistic goal for profitability, if any in FY25 ?
When might we get back to FY19 level's of air traffic ?

Those questions look too hard to me. Simply put, in my opinion there are more rewarding places with FAR less risk to invest one's capital.

[dobby41]

Lesser planes and a lesser number of pilots might mean that airlines would give new connections to a quite remote destination low priority.

Cheaper planes and cheaper pilots - watch the routes surge when the people feel comfortable and safe traveling (safe from cancellations).

[mikelee]

don't forget about the recent surge in fuel prices though, which is the 2nd highest overhead for an airline, after payroll

[Sideshow Bob]

Simply put, in my opinion there are more rewarding places with FAR less risk to invest one's capital.

This is the simple crux of it. Endless scenairios on what might happen in the near future, with the only certainty a large capital raise by AIR or huge dilution for minorities.

[BlackPeter]

maybe
I'd logic it the other way, that there is now a glut of planes and pilots lookin for a way to return some capital on their investments.
so ,,,, who knows really eh?

Sure, question is clearly whether passenger numbers will recover faster or slower than pilot or plane numbers. I don't know the answer to that either.

Only thing to consider is - we just learned in NZ what consequences it has to be moved from the front of the queue to the end of the queue (I am talking about the vaccination).

Based on this experience would I suggest it might not be beneficial for our travel, tourism, education and any other industry to first give any other travel destination around the globe the opportunity to get fully served with planes and pilots, before we decide to maybe open our borders and wonder why no planes are left to serve us ...

[Dassets]

Maybe the MIQ thing is more about the contracts with the hotels. Embarrassing if those contracts run to 30 June next year(for instance) and then the refurb provisions and there are no paying victims, oops guests I mean to pay.

[Dassets]

I have commented on length on the NTA issue. Excluding a cap raise FY22 year end NTA almost certain to be basically zero. Go look what the company said about the effect of Auckland lock down and trans-tasman closure. It is easy to work out.

[Beagle]

I have commented on length on the NTA issue. Excluding a cap raise FY22 year end NTA almost certain to be basically zero. Go look what the company said about the effect of Auckland lock down and trans-tasman closure. It is easy to work out.

Predicting the future is always an inexact science but I agree NTA is likely to be a very small figure and only a tiny fraction of the current share price which makes me wonder what shareholders are currently thinking ? High on aviation fumes or lost in a daydream that the I.P. and goodwill of the company is worth heaps ?

Professional analysts have a target price of $1.97 on average so they obviously think the I.P. is worth quite a bit ! Maybe the landing slots are still worth something ? https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

Shane Jones is back on his soapbox already :eek2: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-too-much-power-has-been-concentrated-in-the-head-and-hands-of-ashley-bloomfield-shane-jones/BWJZN6VWKGGJBBDFQRQOC4RAHI/

[winner69]

AIR will be busy TransTasman in December

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/127066431/air-new-zealand-cancels-1000-flights-between-aotearoa-and-australia

Heaps more credits held on the a balance sheet so no worries

[kiora]

AIR won’t be that busy TransTasman in December

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/127066431/air-new-zealand-cancels-1000-flights-between-aotearoa-and-australia

Heaps more credits held on the a balance sheet so no worries

20,000 affected over thousands of flights?
So < 20/flight?

[nztx]

AIR's captive passengers still likely to be flying into a Cap Raise or has Stumpy in the Beehive run out of other people's cash yet ? ;)

[777]

AIR won’t be that busy TransTasman in December

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/127066431/air-new-zealand-cancels-1000-flights-between-aotearoa-and-australia

Heaps more credits held on the a balance sheet so no worries

They have only cancelled the Aotearoa-Australian flights. Perhaps the New Zealand-Australian ones may go ahead.

[kiora]

They have only cancelled the Aotearoa-Australian flights. Perhaps the New Zealand-Australian ones may go ahead.

The ones from the cloud?

[Waltzing]

With MR B pushing off shore diversification and the possible Delta burn out in Japan some dollars into Aussi and off shore travel stocks is the next opening up trade in the next 12 months.

[Maxtrade]

AIR's captive passengers still likely to be flying into a Cap Raise or has Stumpy in the Beehive run out of other people's cash yet ? ;)

SP broke through $1.60 for first time in a while. Maybe it is starting to dawn on some existing shareholders the difficulties that have been swept under the mat won't just go away. It's all been pretty quiet on the Cap Raise front from the media, Air NZ and Govt. But as soon as that starts getting more publicity will be pretty likely the reality of the Cap Raise will surely slam the share price down pretty quickly.
Get out while you still can maybe? (even at a loss) rather than hope for any SP advancements. More risk than unlikely reward at these levels. Still so surprising how resilient SP has been up until today hanging in there above 1.60. Didn't make sense but maybe just taking time for the market to accept the reality of the massive debt and still unlikely for any quarantine free open international boarders in 2022. Was speaking with an AIR NZ pilot over the weekend who led me to believe I am dreaming in hope for there to be quarantine free travel with open international boarders next year :( Which was a bit of a shock to me! As long as there is even 1 week quarantine it will greatly limit the number of tourists travelling to NZ. In turn still a long dredge in the mud for flights and volume to turn to any upside potential. Came away from the conversation having felt confident I made the right decision selling out any remaining AIR from my portfolio. At least until after the Cap Raise and see how much carnage it does to the SP then. Surprised there are that many investors still hanging in there hoping for a return to norm for Air NZ and a SP rally that has so many things against it currently that it ignores what's actually happening to the company. Point blank they are losing millions and millions of dollars and nothing there is nothing they can do about it. The amount of staff and pilots that have been laid off was sad to hear. Air NZ had no option they have done all they can to keep cutting costs. Even when we do eventually have open travel to Australia, that is just a blip on the losses and shouldn't be a factor to boost SP, yet it seems that's what many retail investors seem to be basing holding Air NZ shares on. Might not be the wisest decision unless those funds are disposable. The ease of investing with platforms like sharsies and so forth have bought many new clients into stocks, but many are young and might not really understand the fundamentals as well. So it might be good to help educate them a bit so they don't just go in blind, with hope, and see their hard earn savings evaporate. Which may happen pretty quickly once Cap Raise hits the headlines again come Feb 2022.
Wish the best for holders, and don't get me wrong obviously I want our National Airline to succeed and come out on top. But reality is what it is and being hopefully isn't really taking into account what the company is facing.

[Waltzing]

never know the virus could turn japanese...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWWwM2wwMww

[THEONE]

They were waiting on clarity of opening up. Surely now is as clear as it is going to be for next few months?
They must have already worked out the restructure plan already...Hopefully they will give an update soon.

[Raz]

They were waiting on clarity of opening up. Surely now is as clear as it is going to be for next few months?
They must have already worked out the restructure plan already...Hopefully they will give an update soon.


Except a new variant of concern...

Also a thank you for the person earlier this month mentioning using air dollars up at on the air points shop...I spent every last dollar plus the credit over November..have stock.. great for xmas, updated all the tech and more...wonder how much that cost Air with cashflow..a lot doing likewise? Just the damn credits to deal with now...

[THEONE]

If Christopher Luxon is made National party leader, I wonder what he will say about the AIRNZ capital restructure.

The government should be getting the best deal for tax payers not AIRNZ shareholders.

No idea why they decided not to increase the interest rate..When they were legally entitled to do so.

Be interesting how they structure the capital raising. If they didnt want to support it a few months ago..Maybe they will try and get it cheap.

[mikelee]

Just bear in mind that Air NZ's London slot was sold under his watch and the decade long cargo lawsuit settled, would give you an idea of whether he has Air NZ's best interest at heart. :cool:

[THEONE]

Luxon for PM and State owned Entities Portfolio..He can look after AIRNZ when they nationalize it.

[BlackPeter]

Luxon for PM and State owned Entities Portfolio..He can look after AIRNZ when they nationalize it.

It is nationalised, isn't it? 51% and a huge amount of debt belong to the crown already, what more do you want?

[777]

Just bear in mind that Air NZ's London slot was sold under his watch and the decade long cargo lawsuit settled, would give you an idea of whether he has Air NZ's best interest at heart. :cool:

Sold out of Virgin as well.

[iceman]

Tonight NZ Inc and Air NZ have been caught out in a big way with Biden's call for a negative test within 24 hours of flight. NZ can't do it. 48-72 hours is the norm here in this pathetically managed country. All Australian international airports offer 90 MINUTES results. NZ is stuffed, unless of course you buy into the Government's crap (and their cheerleaders) about isolating the country away from the World.
Yet another nail in the coffin for NZ Inc :(

[Snow Leopard]

Who, in their right mind, would willingly want to go to the USA anyway?

Disc: Used to 'live & work' in California.

More Disc: do not hold any airline, but have investments in the aviation sector.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Just bear in mind that Air NZ's London slot was sold under his watch and the decade long cargo lawsuit settled, would give you an idea of whether he has Air NZ's best interest at heart. :cool:

Dropping the filghts to Blighty was the right thing to do. It was a presteige rather than profitable part of the route network a long way from base, so operationally difficult. The sale of the LHR slot raised some valuable cash.

LAX --> LHR is a heavily tracked route. Robertson Airlines could easily ship any Bro's who wanted to loyally fly on the National Magic Waka code share LAX --> LHR.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[iceman]

Who, in their right mind, would willingly want to go to the USA anyway?

Disc: Used to 'live & work' in California.

More Disc: do not hold any airline, but have investments in the aviation sector.

“Quickest” way to get to South America. Or at least it was before yday. Now one has to fly to Oz for a test & results within the required timeframe. Nuts

[Beagle]

“Quickest” way to get to South America. Or at least it was before yday. Now one has to fly to Oz for a test & results within the required timeframe. Nuts

You know you want to retire early....just give in to the temptation, everything will be okay :)

[iceman]

You know you want to retire early....just give in to the temptation, everything will be okay :)

I will, but at the time of my choosing. Not Jacinda’s or anyone elses :-) :-)

[BlackPeter]

The only thing interesting when they just convert cash to equity would be the conversion rate ... which would allow the majority shareholder to inflict terrible dilution onto the retail shareholders without any cost to them and no chance for the retail shareholders to do anything about it..

Might be better for PR to do some sort of controlled CR ... to at least pretend it is a fair and equal "at arms length" process.

[Bjauck]

Tonight NZ Inc and Air NZ have been caught out in a big way with Biden's call for a negative test within 24 hours of flight. NZ can't do it. 48-72 hours is the norm here in this pathetically managed country. All Australian international airports offer 90 MINUTES results. NZ is stuffed, unless of course you buy into the Government's crap (and their cheerleaders) about isolating the country away from the World.
Yet another nail in the coffin for NZ Inc :( NZ's covid tasting regime is lamentable. NZ has had the time to prepare, but it was wasted. Although not perfect of course but it is a help, where is Lateral flow (Rapid Antigen) testing?

[Beagle]

Well positioned? You sure you are on the right thread?

I think he's referring to the type of phrases the investment bankers will use.

[Maxtrade]

And yet the SP is still finding support at 1.5 level even amongst all this.

[Waltzing]

At least they have planes... actual assets that can at some point make money again. But a lot of AIR performance was on LOW fuel prices.. Those days are long gone unless OPEC closes shop..

[Beagle]

At least they have planes... actual assets that can at some point make money again. But a lot of AIR performance was on LOW fuel prices.. Those days are long gone unless OPEC closes shop..

It will be a different bird in the future too. I think customers are going to have to come to terms with a new reality of the real cost of flying as ther will be far fewer flights to amortize the extremely expensive head office costs across. Won't worry the Pollies on their taxpayer funded junkets and weekly commuter flights but the reaction from joe public to a very different level of air transport cost could be interesting. We used to have Shane Jones bleating like a stuck pig about $300-400 short haul domestic ticket prices but maybe that's the new normal going forward ?

[Sideshow Bob]

I think at some point (for the sake of an apparent fair and equitable capital market), they will do a capital raise that gives existing shareholders the right to participate.

The Govt loan was done on a hands-off, commercial basis, and the capital raise is going to have to be the same. The loan was a reasonably chunky interest rate for the time, and cannot be seen to be favouring retail investors.

I also think retail investors will be given a shot at the capital raise, to be seen to be fair. The more money from retail investors, the less Govt needs to come up with! But still going to be a bloody large number!! :scared:

PM will just say "Oh just put it on the tab with the rest of the billions we've spent on Covid, doesn't matter....." :(

[Waltzing]

"Aeroflot of the South Pacific"

well the flight attendants of AIR might not look like Singapore girls but the level of service on the last flight from on AIR from Singapore to Auckland was fabulous..

Better menu and wonderful flight crew on that last flight back to NZ...

I know of 2 intelligent tall good looking blonde NZ girls who could not get Flight Attendant jobs with AIR... Both went international and were snapped up...

Banks and Airlines up today in the US.

[Tomtom]

AIR is a really interesting proposition right now. With Covid-19 Omicron variant out-competing Delta and having far milder symptoms I'm thinking that full border reopening might be accelerated dramatically to save lives once the WHO confirms this. After all why fight the worst variant when you could fight any other? In effect we may be seeing the end of the pandemic. The hunger for "revenge travel" could be huge in New Zealand.

Disc: Not holding yet.

[Sideshow Bob]

On JardenDirect, AIR is the no 1 company being added to watchlists at present.......:sleep:

[Waltzing]

KPG was flying high today...

OCA was gliding on it normal flight path... level flight...

TRA got some lift ...

MJH soared on hot air currents

and GMT simply hit the after burners....not to forget the most boring stock on the market holding it flight path like a freight delivery plane in any weather, ARG.

dont forget the bank over the last 2 days but this bird is being flown on the buffs of the gods...

[winner69]

Unvaccinated may be a drag on airlines recovery

https://www.oag.com/blog/vaccinations-aviation-recovery

[Waltzing]

Just makes it safer for everyone else and flying recover's in western economies faster.

[Maxtrade]

On JardenDirect, AIR is the no 1 company being added to watchlists at present.......:sleep:

Seems like the market is single focused on the virus. Almost like the massive debt and CR is irrelevant. The SP seems bound only by what the different news about Covid strains are doing. Seems a little foolish to overlook the financial position of the company, the extreme debt and in turn dilution from CR, but media seems to control stocks these days for many new younger investors it seems?

[Waltzing]

AIR cut's commissions to local travel agents... from July on short haul..

Local Agents very angry.

NZ herald reports 72000 lost tourism jobs in the first year.

[dobby41]

The updated AIR app now has the ability to record your Vaccine Pass.
All ready for next Wednesday when they will be required.

[Nitaa]

AIR cut's commissions to local travel agents... from July on short haul..

Local Agents very angry.

Seriously who on earth books domestic travel with an agent, what a waste of money.

Well done to AIR for doing that.

[Not The Chosen One]

Seriously who on earth books domestic travel with an agent, what a waste of money.

Well done to AIR for doing that.

Did you read the article? Domestic flights aren't included in the commission cuts.

To answer your rhetorical question - There is a huge corporate demand for domestic flights booked through an agent with some seriously large contracts set up between agents and businesses. For the holiday market, most people book themselves which is fairly obvious.

[dobby41]

deleted ........

[dobby41]

Seriously who on earth books domestic travel with an agent, what a waste of money.

Well done to AIR for doing that.

Shorthaul (Aussie etc) rather than domestic.
You'd be surprised - people do use a travel agent for domestic, probably not many people but there are out there.

[Nitaa]

Did you read the article? Domestic flights aren't included in the commission cuts.

To answer your rhetorical question - There is a huge corporate demand for domestic flights booked through an agent with some seriously large contracts set up between agents and businesses. For the holiday market, most people book themselves which is fairly obvious.

Mainly corporate, are now going through a direct portal to AIR and booking their employees themselves cutting out the necessity to pay extra charges through an antiquated agent. Again, agents are a thing of the past.

What this basically means is a better return for AIR domestic and trans Tasman.

[Nitaa]

Provide facts rather than assumptions next time.

You're sounding like an obtuse antiquated union rep.

[Waltzing]

I know some people who regretted not having an agent when covid struct.. Some of them are still stuck in Asia and Europe..

An Iranian business person who lives in the wia Waka too managed to get to german twice last year and she said she Never travels without an Agent to get her out of trouble..

A lot of business people use agents who specialise in getting them in and out of countries or used to an handle all travel arrangements.

[iceman]

Thanks to all for the big discussion on here in recent weeks. I've stayed away from commenting on this thread since I sold out of Air NZ late 2019 (pure luck). But I often compare my ex home country Iceland, Tierra del Fuego where I work (Argentina) and NZ (where I live). In my view they are all after the same tourists, environmental or landscape tourists.

This year Iceland with its population of 330,000, has had 623,000 international tourists until end of November. This year is 75% of 2019 arrivals. They have higher rate of COVID than NZ. Roughly 85-90% vaccinated, +5yo. Tourism companies are reporting 70-80% of 2019 revenue.
The Harbour Master in my old home town of 2,000 people, told me yesterday that he has 97 cruise ships booked for June-August 2022 season. Biggest ever pre-bookings.



I arrived in Ushuaia (Tierra del Fuego) a couple of days ago. I've been coming here regularly for 15 years. When I left in early June, there were very few tourists (ski season) as the country had severe travel restrictions. When I arrived yesterday the country is pretty much open to fully vaccinated people and Aerolineas Argentinas put on an Airbus 330, instead of the Boeing 757 that normally do the route, due to demand. When I arrived in Ushuaia, there where 5 cruise ships in the port and several have departed and arrived since. The town (shops/restaurants) is full of people. Everyone wearing a mask but not really adhering to social distancing. Back to 70% of pre COVID traffic. I've talked to quite a few tourists and they are mainly well off USA or German people.. Would have loved to go to NZ but have now taken it off their bucket list. My mate who owns my favourite parrilla (steakhouse) says his traffic now is 80% of same time 2019.
90% of the +12yo population in the state vaccinated

Looking at this, I am even more furious about the stupid approach NZ has taken to COVID in 2021 with the only measure being how many people die from COVID, ignoring the 50,000 people that have not been able to do their mammograms and all the other health delays. But equally important is the fact that NZ has destroyed the tourism industry that only 3-4 years ago was our 2nd biggest FX earner.

The reason I post on this thread, is that I think NZ, through stupidity, has lost out on the wealthy environmental tourists for several years, because they've already gone elsewhere.

"Let's do this".

[Panda-NZ-]

Tourism provides low wage work so maybe wages on average will increase.


But I often compare my ex home country Iceland, Tierra del Fuego where I work (Argentina) and NZ (where I live). In my view they are all after the same tourists, environmental or landscape tourists.

This iceland-verse ad is good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enMwwQy_noI

[iceman]

Panda, especially after watching this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gElfIo6uw4g.
Classic. I'm glad we finally found one thing we agree on:-)

[uravgtrader]

Can corporates book domestic travel with Air NZ direct on a special portal without having to enter in every passenger's details every time they wanna book? If not, I think that is the benefit of them booking with a travel agent as they can store all the passenger info in their booking system.

[mikelee]

there is a team that looks after corporate booking called tandem travel, definitely don't need to renter your details every time. you can even have your vaccine pass uploaded to the airline's website to speed things up.

[winner69]

No end in sight to the ‘financial crisis’ (my words)

But what happens with recapitalisation maybe getting a bit complicated …..muddying the waters now with zillions of redeemable shares …hmmmm


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/384616/361566.pdf

[Waltzing]

Surely it going to end up the govt holding more shares and the retail investor diluted...no DIV's for ages..not a BUY.

[Getty]

Nothing that a $2 Billion bailout can't fix.

Is the Koru to be replaced with the Dodo?

[winner69]

Todays announcement will probably see a rise in share price

That along with the headlines of hundreds of thousands of Aucklanders flying out from tomorrow.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mass-exodus-12000-flying-out-of-auckland-on-air-new-zealand-when-border-opens/R4SZBZAJVRW46NUB45WKRL7SYE/

Mass exodus - 12,000 people flying out of Auckland tomorrow. Wonder how many will bother coming back with prison walls due to go back up on 17 January ?

Anyone still invested in this pup is begging for trouble and will surely get it as sure as night follows day.

[mikelee]

Yeah, AIA's SP already showing signs of recovery recently. We'll now see how well the vaccine pass really works. Can't believe that the library don't even bother checking my photo ID! It'd be so easy for someone to just borrow a mate's pass.

[THEONE]

but at what price is the Billion dollars worth of shares being bought at. current market cap 1.7 billion.?
Surely it would take crown over 75% at least.

[BlackPeter]

Todays announcement will probably see a rise in share price

That along with the headlines of hundreds of thousands of Aucklanders flying out from tomorrow.

You mean there is a correlation between the spread of the virus and the AIR share price? I guess, you well might be right, just not sure whether it will be a positive correlation :p:

[causecelebre]

Yeah, AIA's SP already showing signs of recovery recently. We'll now see how well the vaccine pass really works. Can't believe that the library don't even bother checking my photo ID! It'd be so easy for someone to just borrow a mate's pass.

The vax pass has never been intended to be policed for sure - as has been shown overseas. It really only ever intended as a carrot and stick to get people vaccinated.

[Baa_Baa]

Surely it going to end up the govt holding more shares and the retail investor diluted...no DIV's for ages..not a BUY.

This is the 'warning shot' across the bows of shareholders. They won't be able to say they didn't see it coming when all hell breaks loose.

[Waltzing]

"hell breaks loose"

heavy flak flying....

[Beagle]

There's already been a video made of what's going to happen to shareholders, its here, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCqe751tOAo

[Getty]

https://youtu.be/ToEolESPGQg?list=RDToEolESPGQg

Some Christmas Cheer from the Red Baroness.

[Maxtrade]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mass-exodus-12000-flying-out-of-auckland-on-air-new-zealand-when-border-opens/R4SZBZAJVRW46NUB45WKRL7SYE/

Mass exodus - 12,000 people flying out of Auckland tomorrow. Wonder how many will bother coming back with prison walls due to go back up on 17 January ?

Anyone still invested in this pup is begging for trouble and will surely get it as sure as night follows day.

Surely they can't really close the borders again come 17th January. That would be political suicide, and create a lot of civil unrest within the country. If they open it up for a couple of weeks then the virus would've already had a chance to spread through the country further so there would be no point locking the borders down again. If they do, with the timing of first quarter AIR CR and hitting the threshold of maxed loan available. Surely the debt and everything else will be very bad news for shareholders clinging on still. Yet AIR SP still holds in the 1.5 range, quite astonishing really, or there are a LOT of new 'investors' who really have no idea of what's taking place on company fundamentals and what the Cap Raise signifies, means and will be used for (ie to pay debt).

[Beagle]

Surely they can't really close the borders again come 17th January. That would be political suicide, and create a lot of civil unrest within the country. If they open it up for a couple of weeks then the virus would've already had a chance to spread through the country further so there would be no point locking the borders down again. If they do, with the timing of first quarter AIR CR and hitting the threshold of maxed loan available. Surely the debt and everything else will be very bad news for shareholders clinging on still. Yet AIR SP still holds in the 1.5 range, quite astonishing really, or there are a LOT of new 'investors' who really have no idea of what's taking place on company fundamentals and what the Cap Raise signifies, means and will be used for (ie to pay debt).

Agreed...border going back up would be complete madness in terms of expending political capital...but so is a lot of the other things the Govt are doing, eg 3 Waters. Its clear there is a whole new generation of investors with no idea of the financial fundamental's. Most popular company on Sharsies...

[Sideshow Bob]

How the **** is this still trading at $1.57??

Is there a massive amount of people out there sniffing Av gas??

[winner69]

This is the 'warning shot' across the bows of shareholders. They won't be able to say they didn't see it coming when all hell breaks loose.

Yes indeed BaaBaa ….a huge ‘warning shot’

Maybe current non-govt shareholders might end up with 15% of the company soon.

Can always buy back when govt sells down in 2028

[Baa_Baa]

Yes indeed BaaBaa ….a huge ‘warning shot’

Maybe current non-govt shareholders might end up with 15% of the company soon.

Can always buy back when govt sells down in 2028

We talk about retail shareholder damage, but what about these big guys? Do they not see what we think we see, or are they locked in through their funds or what? Surely if they do see calamity, they'd be doing something about reducing their exposure?

96092868 shares (8.56%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
81867211 shares (7.29%) National Nominees New Zealand Limited
60820280 shares (5.42%) JP Morgan Chase Bank
54297955 shares (4.84%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
42724338 shares (3.81%) Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd
25046308 shares (2.23%) Accident Compensation Corporation
18546981 shares (1.65%) Cogent Nominees Limited
8022271 shares (0.71%) PREMIER NOMINEES LIMITED
7943351 shares (0.71%) New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited

For the record:
582854593 shares (51.91%) HER MAJESTY THE QUEEN IN RIGHT OF NEW ZEALAND ACTING BY AND THROUGH HER MINISTER OF FINANCE

[Arbroath]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;932142]We talk about retail shareholder damage, but what about these big guys? Do they not see what we think we see, or are they locked in through their funds or what? Surely if they do see calamity, they'd be doing something about reducing their exposure?

96092868 shares (8.56%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
81867211 shares (7.29%) National Nominees New Zealand Limited
60820280 shares (5.42%) JP Morgan Chase Bank
54297955 shares (4.84%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
42724338 shares (3.81%) Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd
25046308 shares (2.23%) Accident Compensation Corporation
18546981 shares (1.65%) Cogent Nominees Limited
8022271 shares (0.71%) PREMIER NOMINEES LIMITED
7943351 shares (0.71%) New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited


Sometimes in life something makes no sense until it does...I'm happy not holding a fundamentally bankrupt airline that is likely to be almost nationalised by the end of 2022. Imagine if some of these shareholders had sold AIR at $1.60 and bought into SKT at $1.80...

[mikelee]

Glad to see the NZSF holding only 0.71% :D

[Getty]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;932142]We talk about retail shareholder damage, but what about these big guys? Do they not see what we think we see, or are they locked in through their funds or what? Surely if they do see calamity, they'd be doing something about reducing their exposure?

96092868 shares (8.56%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
81867211 shares (7.29%) National Nominees New Zealand Limited
60820280 shares (5.42%) JP Morgan Chase Bank
54297955 shares (4.84%) HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED
42724338 shares (3.81%) Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd
25046308 shares (2.23%) Accident Compensation Corporation
18546981 shares (1.65%) Cogent Nominees Limited
8022271 shares (0.71%) PREMIER NOMINEES LIMITED
7943351 shares (0.71%) New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited


Sometimes in life something makes no sense until it does...I'm happy not holding a fundamentally bankrupt airline that is likely to be almost nationalised by the end of 2022. Imagine if some of these shareholders had sold AIR at $1.60 and bought into SKT at $1.80...

If they streaked to the exits, to reduce exposure, the share price would not have been too flash anyway...

[Waltzing]

The only way to avoid the OMMINUS OMICRON wave is to bring the 3rd shot forward from the 6 month mark to 3 months mark.

else the country does in deed risk Windy Cindy locking the whole country down again... the new variant can kill and it far more infectious than Delta by a long way it seems... another game changer coming ? Stormy clouds gathering..

its not investable..but the SHAZ dont follow you lot the smarter investors..they are on the other site drinking the cool aid and believing slick marketing..

[nztx]

How the **** is this still trading at $1.57??

Is there a massive amount of people out there sniffing Av gas??



Probably something more potent .. ;)

[nztx]

Must still be something lendable left in the bank of the Taxpayer (or was that the Bank of Grant) ;)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384616


Obviously taking something larger out looks to have strings on putting the earlier smaller take out back in ;)

Air's SHF at a guess must be pretty much Negative, adjusting things to Current Realisable Value of the bits left.. ;)

A bit like running the bus until the motor blows, windows & wheels fall off, then it becomes no longer usable or viable to fix .. ;)

but haven't the current Govt been managing the Economy in that manner anyway ? ;)

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Really interest youtube video on why airlines dont make money flying - maybe this is why the price is stuck for air new zealand by the big boys - all those flights cancelled redeemed as fly pointer - which air new zealand get to dictitate their worth at a latter date, ie reserve bank issuing its own money in the form of fly buy tokens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggUduBmvQ_4

[mikelee]

This one is pretty good too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj8WZLtqo7Q

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/why-analysts-at-jarden-have-re-stated-their-sell-rating-for-air-new-zealand/JJXGRF67P7H6W6Y7BRHHOJIXUQ/ Paywalled

Jarden predicts monstrous loss of $764m and reiterates SELL recommendation. Target price is 80 cents.

Excerpt - Revenue forecasts have been revised down by 21 per cent which translates to a pre-tax loss of $764m in the 2022 financial year, compared to the analysts' earlier forecast of $578m and much bigger than the booked $430m pre-tax loss in the 2021 year....The analysts calculate an underlying monthly cash burn of around $90m....The analysts, Andrew Steele and Nick Yeo, say the 12-month target price of 80c - down from 85c in their last report

My thoughts - These huge losses and cash burn should strike fear into any rational investor. The dog says this is a SCREAMING SELL

Get out while you can still find a fool to buy them off you !!

[Baa_Baa]

And that article also quotes Jarden with this ...

"We retain our Sell rating, reflecting our view that given Air (NZ's) requirement for what we expect will likely be a highly dilutive capital raise, material ongoing near-term losses and lack of comfort on the timing and trajectory of any earnings recovery.''

"12-month target price of 80c"

Just what we've been talking about for months now.

[Muse]

Can the 2022 share picking competition be a leveraged short on AIR?

[Beagle]

Can the 2022 share picking competition be a leveraged short on AIR?

Please yes.
My five selections for 2022 are
Highly leveraged short on AIR x 5 lol I'll be a certain winner :lol:

[Waltzing]

oh dear red and bold...

funny if the share price goes up at xmas...

[nztx]

oh dear red and bold...

funny if the share price goes up at xmas...



Might be some disappointment from the extended whanau lucky enough to be landed with
the bundles of high flying pie in the sky AIR from Santa down further down the track ;)

they might want to throw them back on the sleigh before large Cap Raises, untold dilution and other
misfortunes surface .. for some other sucker to enjoy .. :)

[Waltzing]

NO the SHAZ wont sell...they will ride out the coaster..for years!!!!!

[BlackPeter]

Please yes.
My five selections for 2022 are
Highly leveraged short on AIR x 5 lol I'll be a certain winner :lol:

It is just - you would need to share this title with many others :):

[Ttops]

Can’t believe the price is still above $1.50 when even most major players are setting a target price of between 80 – 85 cents in the next couple of months. Not to mention the dilution that will decimate retail investors. Where on earth are people minds when the fundamentals are screaming at you.

Don’t think we’ve seen the worst fallout from COVID yet and with a confirmed case of Omicron now landed at the boarder today it won’t be long before that breaks through the thin line.

Some people need their heads read!

[Waltzing]

Deputy PM says today they are confident in the systems in place.... yes right.. some tourist hotels.. When your tools are not made for purpose and your infantry is not rotated off the front lines mistakes happen.

How about AIR's SP goes up before Xmas...defies gravity.

[mikelee]

Depends on whether the reopening of the Aussie border next month goes ahead I reckon. :confused:

[Waltzing]

Doctor Blooming Fields wont advise that not with the new variant.

[dobby41]

Depends on whether the reopening of the Aussie border next month goes ahead I reckon. :confused:

Remember that it isn't really a reopening of the border - it allows only Kiwis to come in.

[Waltzing]

The SHAZ took no notice of the SELL recommendation at least not today.

[stoploss]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300483676/air-nz-cancels-120-flights-27000-customers-affected

[Waltzing]

Its started a xmas rally early...

will bad news be good news or this time bad news....what will the SHAZ do..buy more on the pull back!!!!

[Dassets]

Love those cancelled flights, more money in the tin!! Don't even have to fly anymore, best business ever. Now anyone got that fellow from Goldcorp's number??

[Waltzing]

still got the withdrawals from not flying...

the flying bug is dead, the other bug as killed it...

[mikelee]

Domestic traffic is where the national carrier makes the most $ anyway, but am more worries about the rising fuel prices and weak NZD.

[nztx]

Love those cancelled flights, more money in the tin!! Don't even have to fly anymore, best business ever. Now anyone got that fellow from Goldcorp's number??


May require change to Reporting - All Govt Money coming in to be reported as Revenue :)

What could possibly go wrong parking all the birds of the sky on Airstrips around the Country and charging
an entry price for viewing Govt subsidised Museum pieces of what once was ;)

[mikelee]

Yeah, why not copy those dine in the plane ideas some Asian carriers had when they were grounded. :p

[peat]

Domestic traffic is where the national carrier makes the most $ anyway...

are you sure about that?
are you meaning now, or normal (old times pre-covid)
I guess its possible now, but certainly wasnt afaik

[ados_nz]

Any thoughts on when "the first available window in the first quarter of calendar year 2022." is for this cap raise ?

[winner69]

Cap raise on the horizon ,,,, at what dscount? .... how much dilution all to be answered

But I love it when guru analysts / wealth managers bring up things like strategic investors taking a stake - like 'It could possibly be another airline looking to collaborate, rather than compete, in a future global travel market that remains impacted by the pandemic.'

Gives the punters some hope

Quote from BusinessDesk

[Beagle]

Omricon explosion in cases in Australia. I think its only a matter of when, (not if), that happens here. I think Spindy will likely lock us down again and AIR will kick the can down the road with the capital raise until sometime when they can actually make up a somewhat plausible story about recovery.

I think business travel has changed permanently and zoom and other platform meetings are here to stay. Sure there will still be some business travel but the acceptance of digital meeting platforms is now deeply embedded. Airlines will need to reconfigure their aircraft to have fewer business class seats and economy passengers will need to accept they have to pay a LOT more. That's how I see it evolving in the years ahead. Donations, (lets be done with the pretense they are anything else), to AIR's capital raise are not tax deductible but there are many far more worthy causes that are, e.g. https://www.tearfund.org.nz/Donate/Gift-for-Life.aspx#:~:text=Gift%20for%20Life%20is%20a%20cha rity%20catalogue%20filled,giving%20families%20and% 20individuals%20the%20gift%20you%E2%80%99ve%20sele cted.

It'll be many years before AIR are profitable again. I'm avoiding it like the plague.

[850man]

I wouldn't want to own an airline right now. I may be wrong but the future looks bleak as far out as I can see

[Waltzing]

" think Spindy will likely lock us down again "

Oh dear... well the road will be for us that bike along and the lakes clear for those of us who paddle along... cant be all bad then...

OMI coming to a country near you...

Singapore indicates it will be handling out some good rates. But yes expect to pay more to fly business and there is now a new super business configuration where first class and business merge.

well should be fabulous!!!!

Load up on beaten down tourist stocks because it will return but not till well after 2024-25.

The GFC went past in a flash and so has this.

Investors should find that a crisis is the busiest time of all.

While boring board room meeting can be ZOOMED the most creative sessions are usually better where people are Bouncing off the walls... umm around the pool tables... Ping Pong tables ... or best of all drinks after in the infinity pools..

Who doesnt want to go to Jewel.

[nztx]

sounds brave even putting a remote bet on anything Travel & Accom at the mo ;)

No crisis where I'm lurking at the moment (only threatening upwards price crisis situations)

I departed many NZX positions in Nov 21 on gut feelings of what late 2021 conditions would
morph into in 2022 & probably a bit further out if dreams of Omicron totalling Covid-19
dont pan out & further aggressive mutations pop up to follow the earlier strains .. let's
face it - highly possible

Thanks NZX - dividends in places were nice until the Capital Losses started flowing
as the market twitched then slid and reality sank in on the logistics of staying in
positions heading south with Red :)

Any thoughts on where AIR can be shorted ? ;)

[winner69]

Goodness gracious me ….the AIR share price crashing …close 146.5 today

[Waltzing]

When i read crashing i thought a typo.. 46.?

[mikelee]

I see the CEO is tapping into his US network to replace some of his top lieutenants.
Shame that we don't see more diversity at the top, other than the recent digital officer appointment.

[Waltzing]

You would think by the number of shares traded and the support that this company is firing on all cylinders...water cooled of course..

[nztx]

You would think by the number of shares traded and the support that this company is firing on all cylinders...water cooled of course..


many may be trading up to seat by the window to count all the birds sitting on the tarmac
as the altitude reduces .. any sign of a bit of Robertson bicycle pump action yet ? ;)

Any Stats on the number of crews grounded for 14 days so far ? ;)

[Beagle]

Chris Lee had some interesting things to say about AIR today. I think he hits the nail directly on the head !

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

[Waltzing]

what happens when a flock of bird gets shredded in the turbines? is that the view from the windows.

what is this share price flying on? WHS get trashed, ATM get trashed and anything else that is private enterprise. Maybe this bird will be flying high in a decade using some new green energy miracle engine.

Maybe its a Bargain!

oh well there it is folks its just not going to go down...No shorting this.

[Dassets]

The cap raise is the only trigger. Problem is they will probably have to bin the raise this quarter also. A prospectus just is not possible imo. So that means more bailout money from govt. How long will that go on for? How the heck are they going to get an auditor to sign off the accounts and which director is going to sign. The mind boggles. As I have been saying for some time NTA is basically wiped out by the FY loss. depending on how they treat the tax. A new problem is now the NZD/USD both for fuel and the plane purchases. Remember when they released the hedging positions on fuel.

[Beagle]

I think there's no alternative with Omricon but to kick the capital raise can down the road yet again. Auditor's will probably have no choice in due course but to "qualify" their report with the "fundamental uncertainty regarding going concern" tag. Directors will talk up a huge recovery story in due course with the future capital raise and try and borrow as much of Cindy's lipstick to put on this pig as they can but for my money Chris Lee with the article I linked above has called it how it really is, an absolute plane wreck. In the medium term I think people who still want to fly are going to face a new and much harsher reality around the true cost of doing so.

[mcdongle]

Chris Lee had some interesting things to say about AIR today. I think he hits the nail directly on the head !

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

he says he would not own shares in Air NZ yet if you click on current investments there they are??

[Beagle]

he says he would not own shares in Air NZ yet if you click on current investments there they are??

They make a market in the bonds of various companies including AIR.

[nztx]

The cap raise is the only trigger. Problem is they will probably have to bin the raise this quarter also. A prospectus just is not possible imo. So that means more bailout money from govt. How long will that go on for? How the heck are they going to get an auditor to sign off the accounts and which director is going to sign. The mind boggles. As I have been saying for some time NTA is basically wiped out by the FY loss. depending on how they treat the tax. A new problem is now the NZD/USD both for fuel and the plane purchases. Remember when they released the hedging positions on fuel.


Yes good points

Exchange rate is moving away from us

Fuel - double whammy - Fuel prices rising & exchange rate running away too

Robertson is possibly discovering that he has a whole nest of festering problems
heading into an even worse strain of Pandemic. Borrowed Covid fund is basically
all been thrown into the wind with nothing to show for it much, inflation is threatening to run
away, the offshore bankers are waking up to our Govt's fiscal botch & borrow up
and the masses are starting to become very restless on being left on their own
headed into a new larger wave of Omicron (Govt sponsored aided & abetted) with
very little support, poor planning in place .. :)

Would AIR potentially get much Airtime with Robertson finding his Fiscal nest
of pets are wide awake close to turning around and all biting him badly on the butt ? ;)

[Waltzing]

The minister of Financial wizardry has clearly stated that economy is flying high.

This flying high company might well be nationalised at some point...Its a potential department of Kiwi birds...

The only other option is a bail out...Tax payer funded.

Should not this stock come with a Financial Health Warning?

A Red Zone Stock; a radiation sign on the certificates.

[nztx]

The minister of Financial wizardry has clearly stated that economy is flying high.

This flying high company might well be nationalised at some point...Its a potential department of Kiwi birds...


if that's the case, it looks like there's troubles afoot in some of the funds -- only $4 Bills left in the
Covid Fund - has someone been stealing readie$ out of it while the big fella been away on holiday
and that's after the inflation increment should have been added on top ? ;)

thought you said the flock was likely to get shredded before ? :)

[Waltzing]

Yes, and possible class action .

Remember it will be mostly first time SHAZ that will be shredded just as inflation hits and there hard earned pay with no rise in 2 years suddenly has a large hole in it.

Imagine the SHAZ getting the letter from their investor chair leaders. Cant even imagine the load of rubbish they will dribble out to the flock encouraging them to take up the cap raise.

[Dassets]

Very interesting what Chris Lee said about Air NZ's capital raise. My sources confirm. Level talked about is 80 cents but how they even expect to get that surprises me. I assume that FB's recovery modelling has some fairly aggressive forecasts. I know some furloughed pilots are meant to be back on the payroll at the end of January for training to go back on line. Personally I think globally the industry generally ok but with more regional focus so things like Europe ok, US, Asia but long haul faces big challenges. And there is no bigger long-haul for most of the world than New Zealand.

The problems for the travellers are complex long haul ie significant intermediate stops that can become roadblocks for return travel, NZ's supposed inability to provide health care in the event of an outbreak(I haven't heard anyone mention that yet but think about the NZ Govt's messaging on that) MIQ(minor in comparison), carbon footprint(Skyscanner showing carbon cost of various flights), higher network cost due to lower volumes. Let's face it - NZers inability to access their own country also wouldn't fill me with confidence on how it might look to a foreign passport holder trying to return home in trying circumstances.

Tourism has just become much more regionally focused for many because they can choose great regional options. NZers can't because our region is .... ocean!

[mcdongle]

They make a market in the bonds of various companies including AIR.

If you scroll down to SHARES they are there.


13456

[BlackPeter]

If you scroll down to SHARES they are there.


13456

Not quite sure I understand your point. This is neither a model portfolio nor a portfolio at all nor a list of recommended investments, it is just a list of available investments comparing their current (dividend or interest) yields.

Actually - which part of the disclaimer at the top of the list do you not understand?


*Inclusion on this list is not a recommendation to invest. If you are an advised client please contact one of our advisers to discuss.


What exactly do you try to convey?

[Dassets]

If you scroll down to SHARES they are there.


13456
That doesn't mean much. When a firm like that gets a new client the client transfers in their existing positions. A lot will hold AIR and all sorts of things from the olden days, maybe even Chase(can't omit Equiticorp) and a few other doozies. Some clients would rather sell their first borne rather than bid adieu to some of these wretched dogs.

[Beagle]

Very interesting what Chris Lee said about Air NZ's capital raise. My sources confirm. Level talked about is 80 cents but how they even expect to get that surprises me. I assume that FB's recovery modelling has some fairly aggressive forecasts. I know some furloughed pilots are meant to be back on the payroll at the end of January for training to go back on line. Personally I think globally the industry generally ok but with more regional focus so things like Europe ok, US, Asia but long haul faces big challenges. And there is no bigger long-haul for most of the world than New Zealand.

The problems for the travellers are complex long haul ie significant intermediate stops that can become roadblocks for return travel, NZ's supposed inability to provide health care in the event of an outbreak(I haven't heard anyone mention that yet but think about the NZ Govt's messaging on that) MIQ(minor in comparison), carbon footprint(Skyscanner showing carbon cost of various flights), higher network cost due to lower volumes. Let's face it - NZers inability to access their own country also wouldn't fill me with confidence on how it might look to a foreign passport holder trying to return home in trying circumstances.

Tourism has just become much more regionally focused for many because they can choose great regional options. NZers can't because our region is .... ocean!

FB will stuff their fully managed discretionary clients accounts chock-a-block full of this "excellent recovery story" and of course this has nothign to do with the brokerage and huge underwriting fees they will make ;)...like they did so "successfully" for their clients with Feltex, Credit Sails and many of their other "highly successful" IPO's and placements. On top of that you have a whole new generation of investors who weren't around last time AIR crashed and burned down to 25 cents or who have no idea that the NASDAQ lost ~ 90% of its value in the tech wreck after the dot.com bust ~ 20 years ago. You can't go wrong with Air New Zealand they say on their sharsies and fakebook chat platforms. Some of the new generation who've made a small fortune on crypto might be tempted to invest in so called "solid assets".

I think 40 cents more correctly balances the modest opportunities and exceptionally high risks but I'd want 25 cents again because to me unless its a screaming bargain its probably just philanthropy to the Government to help them underwrite what is likely to be a company making huge losses for many years to come.

[mcdongle]

Ok i stand corrected........

[Waltzing]

was expecting a return to europe this year.. NO not until the stop overs are not fill of Omicron. With many countries now offering online filing of information you can do your europe business on line. Hut up in one hemisphere and run your business in another.

[Beagle]

was expecting a return to europe this year.. NO not until the stop overs are not fill of Omicron. With many countries now offering online filing of information you can do your europe business on line. Hut up in one hemisphere and run your business in another.

On CNBC this morning the Alaska AIR CEO said their business bookings from tech companies were down 90%. Zoom and other online platforms are now embedded as the new normal way of doing business. Can't allow executives to be exposed to risk with physical travel the legal liability exposure is too great.

AIR will find if or when they get their shiny new Dreamliners flying long haul again they are really going to struggle to get decent loadings especially in their so called business class, (which really only has the same size seats as economy class from 15 years ago).

[Waltzing]

There will come a time when being in the HUT is going to get cabin fever..

Really missing those scenic train trips in europe. In fact really missing a decent train. Nothing like swooping up stockholm.

Its that there is a big world out there and right now you can only see it on your TV.

There will come a time and you wont want to come back for a long time.

[dobby41]

There will come a time when being in the HUT is going to get cabin fever..

Really missing those scenic train trips in europe. In fact really missing a decent train. Nothing like swooping up stockholm.

Its that there is a big world out there and right now you can only see it on your TV.

There will come a time and you wont want to come back for a long time.

Can you not do all that now over there? I read from many commentators that it is all normal everywhere else but here?

[BlackPeter]

There will come a time when being in the HUT is going to get cabin fever..

Really missing those scenic train trips in europe. In fact really missing a decent train. Nothing like swooping up stockholm.

Its that there is a big world out there and right now you can only see it on your TV.

There will come a time and you wont want to come back for a long time.

Well, you know - they do have their downsides as well. My sister caught Covid on the train from Stockholm to Gothenburg (a year ago ... prior to vaccinations).

But yes, would be nice to not just be able to travel again (we can, if we want), but also being able to return in a predictable timeframe back to NZ :):

[Waltzing]

"normal everywhere else but here"

ok ... is it normal anywhere....the new normal then...No not going till the stop over zones are deemed safer to protect alveoli. As one gets older protecting VO2 Max becomes harder and harder.

[BlackPeter]

Can you not do all that now over there? I read from many commentators that it is all normal everywhere else but here?

You can ... and it is. It is just difficult for any Kiwis who want to get back as well, given that our government prefers to keep their electorate locked up. While we are allowed to leave, it is impossible to plan the return journey (unless you are a British DJ or one of the Wiggles - we always have space for them in MIQ.

But back to AIR ... I wonder how this policy does impact on them?

[Waltzing]

Country is in red for 2 weeks right? borders closed for travel bubble till when?

does anyone know whats going on?

Have to assume AIR has no idea when it can get some overseas travel bubbles operating again.

It appears situation is just a state of confusion.

SNFU.... its a SNFU....

[dobby41]

Country is in red for 2 weeks right? borders closed for travel bubble till when?

does anyone know whats going on?


2 weeks - nope!
2 weeks was mentioned for the 1st phase when we hit 1k cases/day.
At that point some of the settings change but we are still in RED.
Things like tracing change, how long to isolate, use of RATs begins (useless now really with low case numbers).

Travel - still end of Feb being talked about for what would have happened on 17th Jan (open to Aus with home isolation) and maybe what was going to happen with the rest of the world (open to Kiwis with home isolation).
More to come on this in a week or 2.

[Waltzing]

"RATs"

yes we have some Rat traps.... but a hedge hog seems to over turn them..

Are the Rats in warehouses somewhere?

Arrh we go Deeper in to the RED then...

Glad someone is still listening to the state of the nation.. arrrh colony... islands full of summer sun seekers...:t_up:

anyone counting..

"2 weeks was mentioned for the 1st phase when we hit 1k cases/day."

what is the number now or is everyone out on the sun deck getting sozzled for the weekend...

what phase is the colony in now?

[nztx]

2 weeks - nope!
2 weeks was mentioned for the 1st phase when we hit 1k cases/day.
At that point some of the settings change but we are still in RED.
Things like tracing change, how long to isolate, use of RATs begins (useless now really with low case numbers).

Travel - still end of Feb being talked about for what would have happened on 17th Jan (open to Aus with home isolation) and maybe what was going to happen with the rest of the world (open to Kiwis with home isolation).
More to come on this in a week or 2.



The Longer plan was two months for the Lock Down (not called a Lock Down, but something else)
for convenience sake, so Robertson & mates didn't think they had to stump up any dough ..
Right ? ;)

Can't be seen to be stroking that nasty beasty - 'Inflation' can they .. like any old lame excuse will do ;)

[dobby41]

The Longer plan was two months for the Lock Down (not called a Lock Down, but something else)
for convenience sake, so Robertson & mates didn't think they had to stump up any dough ..

Doesn't feel like a lockdown to me.
In the air tomorrow, cafes and restaurants today and the past week.
Not called a lockdown because it isn't.
Try living life - I am.

[ados_nz]

Up 5% in the last week.... Maybe this generous government is going to offer to pay above the market sp for any future shares issued? (lol)

[mikelee]

In the meantime, the brain drain continues....:eek2:

[Waltzing]

Gosh is this still trading ....

[Dassets]

Up 5% in the last week.... Maybe this generous government is going to offer to pay above the market sp for any future shares issued? (lol)

Imagine Jacinda and Grant on the Roadshow!! I would pay to see that comedy show

[nztx]

Gosh is this still trading ....


Yep .. must be on the mystery Govt jobs route between KeriKeri & Auckland ;)

[nztx]

Doesn't feel like a lockdown to me.
In the air tomorrow, cafes and restaurants today and the past week.
Not called a lockdown because it isn't.
Try living life - I am.


Good for you..

wish you best of luck dodging Delta & Omicron out there :)

[ados_nz]

SP taking another move upwards on the back on the MIQ news.

[nztx]

SP taking another move upwards on the back on the MIQ news.


hope they realise that getting onboard could still mean helping to push the large bird down the runway,
and getting out the way fast if said endeavours fail and the thing starts rolling backwards .. ;)

[Waltzing]

It will be back in profit in no time and flying high. Now all it needs is the Winner seal of approval with some really good EPS numbers.

Nothing to worry about. After all record payout to farmers and they will all want to fly out for that once or twice in a life time european trip back to see the relatives...

Dutch diary farmer sold a couple out in the waikato 2 years ago and bought a little house in a french village...

Goodness knows where that lovely man and his wife are now.

Anyway lots of kiwi birds taking to the air shortly all over the place!!!!

Winner EPS rating coming soon...

Dont know if south island Moose fly anywhere.

No cap raise needed......:t_up:

No plans to fly anywhere now until 2023.. lets see what horrible variant will emerge later this year.

[Beagle]

AIR will be able to spin a bit of a yarn with their half year result about how they're planning to "revive and thrive" with the pending capital raise. I will have a liberal quantity of Tui's on hand especially for the occasion as I read through this wonderful case study in creative marketing which I am sure will be the subject matter of investment analysis university papers for decades to come.

Fortunately for AIR and the Govt they have a whole new generation of investors to have no knowledge of the 25 cent capital raise after 9/11 so they will think 80 cents is a screaming bargain and jump in boots and all thinking its a safe Government controlled airline with a fantastic reputation, (probably few if any would have even heard of Justice Mahon or even less would recall what he famously said).

Forbar will be infamously instrumental in orchestrating this process and once again "helping" their clients just as they did with Feltex, Credit Sails and other notable "successes"

[Waltzing]

just got brought back to earth... like a balloon that just got burst...

Was going to trade the rallies ....

Then Mr B delivered a sucker punch and i reached for a Hot Milo and went back to whatching ART's channel...

Sun just came up and its a whole new weekend.

[Muse]

It will be back in profit in no time and flying high. Now all it needs is the Winner seal of approval with some really good EPS numbers.

Nothing to worry about. After all record payout to farmers and they will all want to fly out for that once or twice in a life time european trip back to see the relatives...

Dutch diary farmer sold a couple out in the waikato 2 years ago and bought a little house in a french village...

Goodness knows where that lovely man and his wife are now.

Anyway lots of kiwi birds taking to the air shortly all over the place!!!!

Winner EPS rating coming soon...

Dont know if south island Moose fly anywhere.

No cap raise needed......:t_up:

No plans to fly anywhere now until 2023.. lets see what horrible variant will emerge later this year.

the south island moose enjoys nothing more than driving through the hills of the south island. occasionally I am obliged to fly to auckland to visit in-laws

[winner69]

the south island moose enjoys nothing more than driving through the hills of the south island. occasionally I am obliged to fly to auckland to visit in-laws

Lindis pass is my favourite drive through the south island hills

[Sideshow Bob]

Lindis pass is my favourite drive through the south island hills

Went through there tthe last couple of days - unfortunately was nothing like that - wet and thick cloud......;) But Lindis Pass and McKenzie Coutry is glorious on a fine day.

[Waltzing]

Good thing about the south island is no wild bears....

Ingrid keeps sending me photos of wild bears on the roads in my favourite mount biking spots...Im sure they are photo shopped.. Not so many tourists means the high tundra is now over run she says...with a population of only a couple of thousand it seems a wild story...

[Beagle]

Lindis pass is my favourite drive through the south island hills

Not a single rabbit in that photo for the Beagle to chase. Chances of a feed there a zero, zilch, nada and nothing...bit like investing in AIR lol

[Dassets]

Actually the Machynlleth Loop is on my list.. But is anyone wants to come for a fly with me I have been practising on Microsoft Flight Sim. It rates me 8.2 so above average.

[BlackPeter]

Not a single rabbit in that photo for the Beagle to chase. Chances of a feed there a zero, zilch, nada and nothing...bit like investing in AIR lol

Actually - I am pretty sure there are plenty of rabbits around the Lindis pass area, they are just hiding on this photo :);

Less sure about the benefits of investing in AIR at this time ... but hey - maybe we just can't see the hidden benefits in that either?

[Beagle]

No easy feed to be had here according to the brokers https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519888/nz-tech-stocks-slide-on-meta-s-mega-miss.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+4+Feb+2 022

Excerpt:-National carrier Air NZ also continued to rally on the border reopening plan, it rose 1.9% to $1.59 today. UBS analysts give the stock a 75-cent target price, only just below Jarden’s 80-cents. Forsyth Barr has the most positive view, but still only gives a $1.10 target.

Forget Forbar's assessment as they are rumored to be supporting the pending capital raise.

I think its clear they need to raise at least $1.5 Billion so if the issue price is the rumored 80 cents that's probably a 2:1 rights issue.

[BlackPeter]

No easy feed to be had here according to the brokers https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519888/nz-tech-stocks-slide-on-meta-s-mega-miss.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+4+Feb+2 022

Excerpt:-National carrier Air NZ also continued to rally on the border reopening plan, it rose 1.9% to $1.59 today. UBS analysts give the stock a 75-cent target price, only just below Jarden’s 80-cents. Forsyth Barr has the most positive view, but still only gives a $1.10 target.

Forget Forbar's assessment as they are rumored to be supporting the pending capital raise.

I think its clear they need to raise at least $1.5 Billion so if the issue price is the rumored 80 cents that's probably a 2:1 rights issue.

I don't contest your assessment of the AIR situation. Much easier to catch rabbits around the Lindis pass area rather than to make money from the planned AIR CR ... :) ... unless you are a broker, of course.

[Tomtom]

Only anecdotal but I hear ticket prices are rallying this week for the middle of the year. Hope they have the staff they laid off on speed dial.

[winner69]

Headline a few years ago Air NZ risks a hit as oil price booms: analysts ….when oil was still in US$70’s

Over US$90 at the moment ….hmmm

Doesn’t really matter though because profits don’t matter these days …so no worries (and waltzing will pay the higher fares)

[Beagle]

Once we go over 1000 cases a day do you guys think people will want to get into a small aluminum tube and sit there for ages next to complete strangers and breathe in all the air that others have expelled. Hmmm...I foresee demand collapsing.

[Baa_Baa]

Once we go over 1000 cases a day do you guys think people will want to get into a small aluminum tube and sit there for ages next to complete strangers and breathe in all the air that others have expelled. Hmmm...I foresee demand collapsing.

No need to wait for a 1000 cases per day. Of the current 168 locations of interest, 18 of them are flights (10.7%), and even that doesn't tell the whole story ...

... from the Covid website, "Not all exposure events will become locations of interest if health officials can identify everyone who may have been exposed (for example, a flight, a hairdresser with booked appointments, a private social event). These are considered private exposure events and you will be contacted by a district health board, the Ministry of Health or a district health board public health unit."

So, not all flights with exposures are reported as locations of interest. Who knows then what the actual number of flights with exposures is.

[Beagle]

No need to wait for a 1000 cases per day. Of the current 168 locations of interest, 18 of them are flights (10.7%), and even that doesn't tell the whole story ...

... from the Covid website, "Not all exposure events will become locations of interest if health officials can identify everyone who may have been exposed (for example, a flight, a hairdresser with booked appointments, a private social event). These are considered private exposure events and you will be contacted by a district health board, the Ministry of Health or a district health board public health unit."

So, not all flights with exposures are reported as locations of interest. Who knows then what the actual number of flights with exposures is.

Its a HUGE worry. There's no way in the world I am choosing to play Russian Roulette with my health so I really feel for those who have no choice to do so for their job or their business.

[dln]

So which travellers are supplying the virus to these flights of interest, the 'double vaccinated' or the 'tested negative'?

[nztx]

So which travellers are supplying the virus to these flights of interest, the 'double vaccinated' or the 'tested negative'?


Can you wait at least a month ? .. the Counters at MOH Ratgate Central are too busy counting all the Hijacked RAT packs ;)

Comrade Andy has ordered an urgent full Stocktake of the spoils for the next instalment of "Try to Spin a
Truth" - as per usual to be delegated to Bloomfield , so Little doesn't have to show his dial :)

[Tomtom]

Looks like Australia are fully reopening in two weeks. As people will be able to transit to the rest of the world via Australia this effectively means the resumption of free movement for Kiwis (so much for the 'five phase plan' announced earlier this week!)

Judging by other countries it doesn't seem like Omicron had as greater impact on peoples willingness to travel.

[iceman]

Looks like Australia are fully reopening in two weeks. As people will be able to transit to the rest of the world via Australia this effectively means the resumption of free movement for Kiwis (so much for the 'five phase plan' announced earlier this week!)

Judging by other countries it doesn't seem like Omicron had as greater impact on peoples willingness to travel.

Totally correct. The World is back traveling in a big way. I am in Ushuaia in Argentina where 4 cruiseships have come in today with around 6,000 - 7,000 passengers. The industry is up and running again. Sadly the scaremongering in NZ seems to have worked on a large proportion of the population, so NZ is missing out on the boom that is already happening elsewhere ! AIR remains a basket case as a result.

[winner69]

Passenger / capacity numbers growing pretty fast ….normal not thar off ….except this part of the world

https://www.oag.com/blog/increasing-signs-of-recovery-in-all-markets

[Dassets]

Not right. If you are a kiwi and want to use the stay at home Quarantine option(that is what it is but no one will do it) you have to have been with the convicts for two weeks or MIQ for you.

[Dassets]

AIR is not stable enough to do a cash issue. That is why it keeps getting put off. Even Min of Fin said that in a letter to AIR. To raise $1.5 bil and still be loss making for 2 or 3 years is a problem for an operating business. Remember AIR had already consumed the cash paid for tickets then issued the biggest IOU in NZ history. To me it is up there with a scam.

[Sideshow Bob]

Their op stats for December. Not much to get excited by......

364129.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/386905/364129.pdf)

[winner69]

Big fall in passenger numbers in December v prior year ... even domestic was down 23%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/386905/364129.pdf

[Waltzing]

Its the BIG STAY AT HOME in the HUT coming. Now if your in the country side or rural towns its dont go near those big population centres.

Apparently hospitality already noticing a big slow down...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/return-from-hibernation-air-new-zealand-bringing-back-the-boeing-777/E467T2VHXZTVA5EAZARA2GIQDA/

Much excitement at AIR. Great selling point for their pending gargantuan capital raise. What an "amazing" opportunity that will be ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/return-from-hibernation-air-new-zealand-bringing-back-the-boeing-777/E467T2VHXZTVA5EAZARA2GIQDA/

Much excitement at AIR. Great selling point for their pending gargantuan capital raise. What an "amazing" opportunity that will be ;)

Is the IAFC still going?

Besides, got to fly in all those RAT tests just ordered...

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/return-from-hibernation-air-new-zealand-bringing-back-the-boeing-777/E467T2VHXZTVA5EAZARA2GIQDA/

Much excitement at AIR. Great selling point for their pending gargantuan capital raise. What an "amazing" opportunity that will be ;)


Seeing as Robertson's "strip the Reserve Bank by Borrowing from Yourself" didn't quite make it to Germany's
1920's inflationary currency printing levels, maybe AIR could try the same with billions of ultimately
worthless new shares - likely to be hovered up consolidated and cancelled in the future, once AIR thinks
everyone has gotten past the point of remembering that they paid good money for the things ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Although it seems on the face of it that shareholders could be crushed by AIR's pending requirement for tons of new capital, it begs the question why the top 9 shareholders (not including Government) continue to hold such large positions?

[nztx]

Although it seems on the face of it that shareholders could be crushed by AIR's pending requirement for tons of new capital, it begs the question why the top 9 shareholders (not including Government) continue to hold such large positions?


Who would dare crash the SP of AIR for all though - and who would buy large ? :)

The captive Quazi Govt rabbits in the hat - like ACC, etc certainly wouldn't want to be seen rocking boat

[Beagle]

Seeing as Robertson's "strip the Reserve Bank by Borrowing from Yourself" didn't quite make it to Germany's
1920's inflationary currency printing levels, maybe AIR could try the same with billions of ultimately
worthless new shares - likely to be hovered up consolidated and cancelled in the future, once AIR thinks
everyone has gotten past the point of remembering that they paid good money for the things ;)

History "never" repeats eh ;)

[Waltzing]

Tourism share in AUS plus others are up on the ASX with the new opening border date for AUS.

AIR up..its never going to crash ... they are never going to do a cap raise..just add more debt..

The government hates stock markets and wants your jewels (letters to the 400) but they dont want to be seen to crash saving of ordinary voters..

[mikelee]

Very hard for airlines around the world the make $ too with fuel prices so high atm. :scared:

[Sideshow Bob]

Very hard for airlines around the world the make $ too with fuel prices so high atm. :scared:

Sure AIR wouldnt have much in the way of hedges in place either....???

[Maxtrade]

Tourism share in AUS plus others are up on the ASX with the new opening border date for AUS.

AIR up..its never going to crash ... they are never going to do a cap raise..just add more debt..

The government hates stock markets and wants your jewels (letters to the 400) but they dont want to be seen to crash saving of ordinary voters..

Many of this threads comments are valid on any business fundamental level, yet the belief in Air New Zealand not "crashing" seems to be enough for many to forgo logical assessment. In turn seeing SP rallying to 1.7, most investors following investment theology would be turning away from this stock. Yet belief seems to govern markets these days, such as with Crypto. All it takes is enough who believe in an idea and everything else goes to the sidelines. SP should be continuing a downtrend not rallying simply on a few less boarder restrictions etc. Still a long long way off before there is even a dent in the debt. Still with limited travel, airfares will be much higher in times to come and overall the travel era has peaked for our lifetimes at least. Will wait and see what prevails with a Cap Raise, and loaded debt. Any logic would still have to say SP should still plummet. However the fact SP is rallying quite strongly off the back of recent news goes to show investing is more and more becoming calculated gambling. Following technicals and metrics seem to almost become irrelevant. AIR is almost being treated as a growth stock at current SP, however following technicals indicate it is not a bargain price for the stock nor a positive future growth outlook off almost 1.7

[Beagle]

Tourism share in AUS plus others are up on the ASX with the new opening border date for AUS.

AIR up..its never going to crash ... they are never going to do a cap raise..just add more debt..

The government hates stock markets and wants your jewels (letters to the 400) but they dont want to be seen to crash saving of ordinary voters..

Oh yes they are and its going to be very highly dilutive. Only a question of "when" not "if"

If things go well AIR might be marginally profitable in FY24 or FY25...maybe even make a few cents a share on the vastly expanded capital base but anyone chasing dividend yield is going to need to have extreme level's of patience.

Totally un-investable in my view but I do agree with some other comments earlier in this thread that those that choose to fly in the future will be looking at much, much higher ticket prices as airlines try desperately to claw their way out of a very deep and dark abyss of extremely high debt.

[mikelee]

Don't forget the cost of airport testing can be sky high too, depending on where you're flying to. So even without MIQ and home quarantine, budget tourist is likely to suffer. :(

[Waltzing]

"Oh yes they are"

well may be new fuel mixes will drive the profit through the floor adding the dilution of future profits...:scared:

Yes but those who can afford business class will still fly it. Aircraft will be reconfigured with large ECO and smaller business class.

There were some already published design changes on international mags on line.

2023 looks like the year to restart those trips.

[Marilyn Munroe]

... much higher ticket prices as airlines try desperately to claw their way out of a very deep and dark abyss of extremely high debt.

There is a flaw in established airlines plan to claw back balance sheet black holes with higher fares; new entrants. You can probably get a Boeing 777-200 for a small margin above scrap from an aircraft lessor.

Maybe Sand State airlines can get fuel at mates rates.

The Bain Capital spreadsheet jockeys who own Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) have access to cheap money which could be used to fund a combat air patrol stuffed with cheap over the ditch seats reducing Robertson Airlines to smoking wreckage.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Waltzing]

"Robertson Airlines to smoking wreckage"

new entrants. Interesting and no shortage for local pilots but there is a shortage going forward in US and Europe apparently.

[Waltzing]

rubbing it in to AIR?

Jetstar sale offers domestic fares for $25 each way (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/company-news/jetstar-sale-offers-domestic-fares-for-dollar25-each-way/ar-AATCUP3?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBqdg4K)

[Beagle]

Talked with the CFO of a local unlisted aviation company who do a lot of maintenance, aircraft and helicopter leasing. One of the biggest operators in Auckland, better not name them. Very, very tough times. Work has really dried up since Covid hit especially in the fixed wing division and for flight schools. Desperate times and many unpaid bills and qualified engineers sitting around picking their noses.

[Waltzing]

The stories you wont read much about.

Similar to harsh view from a women hamilton city sitting board member. First time in 2 years this person has dared to speak off record in private.

There appears to be little reporting the carnage out there in some private business sectors.

[Arbroath]

Foran says Air NZ capital raise to be “massive” and hopes it goes ahead after several delays.

This highlights a couple of points. AIR shareholders, other than the Govt, are likely to get hit between the eyes once the details are announced and secondly that the whole gig depends on the whim of the Finance Minister as the controlling shareholder.

It’s like waiting to watch a live train wreck!

[Jaa]

The cost and complexities of getting tested prior to international travel in NZ are now so high compared to other countries that Air NZ should develop their own testing facility at Auckland international airport with guaranteed turnaround times like most major international airports (SYD, SIN, LAX etc) have. Would be a major competitive advantage.

Just another way NZ has fallen far behind the rest of the world in managing this pandemic.

[Waltzing]

" live train wreck!"

crash landing wheels up.... could be some damage...

[Baa_Baa]

The cost and complexities of getting tested prior to international travel in NZ are now so high compared to other countries that Air NZ should develop their own testing facility at Auckland international airport with guaranteed turnaround times like most major international airports (SYD, SIN, LAX etc) have. Would be a major competitive advantage.

Just another way NZ has fallen far behind the rest of the world in managing this pandemic.

It's ridiculous, my son had to pay over $300 for the 'within 72 hours' departure test, which was more than it cost him to buy the one way flight to Melbourne. For a 19 year old off on his OE, that expense was gut wrenching, like for example it's three weeks shared rent in the hostel. Just for the test.

[Jaa]

It's ridiculous, my son had to pay over $300 for the 'within 72 hours' departure test, which was more than it cost him to buy the one way flight to Melbourne. For a 19 year old off on his OE, that expense was gut wrenching, like for example it's three weeks shared rent in the hostel. Just for the test.

Its outrageous.

Exact same PCR test is $NZ140 at Changi (under 24hr), $NZ188 at LAX (under 24hr) and $NZ85 at Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane airports (90 mins).

[Dassets]

Foran says Air NZ capital raise to be “massive” and hopes it goes ahead after several delays.

This highlights a couple of points. AIR shareholders, other than the Govt, are likely to get hit between the eyes once the details are announced and secondly that the whole gig depends on the whim of the Finance Minister as the controlling shareholder.

It’s like waiting to watch a live train wreck!

A couple of times I have mentioned that a prospectus seems to be an issue for AIR in getting to a capital raise. Today there seems a little more focus on a debt capital raise also as part of that. Presumably that debt is government.

I did a quick refresh on the regs. I cannot understand how AIR can meet the requirements of a prospectus unless COVID relief can be granted but that has expired. Basically that COVID relief allowed issuers to tell investors nothing about any risks and really pull the wool over people's eyes. The past pulled capital raises for AIR are really the canary in the coal mine. I think the probability that an equity or public debt raise is diminishing at this time given the uncertainty with the business. As it stands the company must be looking at (large)losses for a indeterminate time.

This raises a few questions/issues/possibilities.

1. Restructuring. It is clear the business outlook has changed in away not envisaged in the first 6 months of the crisis. There is no return to how demand and the market operated prior. Long-haul is deeply affected in a more permanent way. Public comments now are focusing on short-haul targeting. For AIR that means a vastly shrunk network which means airfreight will remain a challenging logistics environment. AIR probably a considerable restructuring to shape the organisation to the new operating environment. A sizable "shrinking" across the organisation. That will need capital. I would like to know why Foran has ruled out any pure freight operation.

How big does a trans-tasman/pacific islands operation look like?

2. Nationalisation. The likelihood of this is increasing. Why? The financial market and general corporate rules framework governing AIR are becoming incompatible with its survival. Having minorities in there with legal protection is a problem. That said the rules on spending public money are there too but hey the penalties are nothing just some people may not vote for you with a bad report card from the auditor-general(and Labour already has a few).

At what level would this happen? Market?160? True value?50 cents? Midway?

Problem with market is more in the MoF's face. That is writing a monster cheque for minorities(plus pay a small $50m for the bond expiry) AND then own ongoing funding of losses plus never see the money already used which was meant to be paid back and now never will. This is probably a $5bil entry price. Fun times in the beehive.

Then you 100% own something where you have hundreds of people being paid more than a minister and quite a few more than PM including some walk around pilots. I would love to see that culture shift. Imagine both sides of the table eating endless dead rats.

3. Last thing. The banks and senior debt are still sitting there. So Govt will have its interests subordinated unless the banks allow some miracle on the Hudson type event. But that would screw their shareholders.......

Decisions, decisions anybody? Good luck with this steaming pile of turds.

[Beagle]

Greg Foran will try and make investment in the massive capital raise as sexy as possible, even has a new Maori term for his 5 year thrive plan. Kia Mau
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-new-zealands-greg-foran-outlines-the-airlines-kia-mau-five-year-plan/CV3X5VJCS2UTARCWHDEUUFR4WY/ Paywalled

Of course there are "no risks whatsoever" in making things look really sexy as this video clearly shows https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwxUdT0pMZc
Hands up all those who want to be on this "risk free" exciting ride...what could possibly go wrong, the Government are in charge :lol: :lol:

[Waltzing]

Will there be a Hui, kui, wuie...

lots of hungi's... free food, drinks, hula girls?

Big party? Masks not mandatory?

A Juan Trippe dance troupe out on the wings on the Black 777?

Not sure about being all in on this one...

Could create a whole new flying experience. Tourism to islands off the coast with flying boats..

Traditional fishing experiences show casing south pacific cultures..

It will kill them in europe to experience this new vista in south pacific Bali Hai sunsets...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81NROmUb7o0