View Full Version : AIR - Air NZ.
Waltzing
31-03-2022, 12:38 PM
playing with fire...:eek2:
Sideshow Bob
31-03-2022, 12:45 PM
Wow what a trading day! Shorted on open, covered $1.25-26, reloaded $1.29-30, covered $1.18-19, reloaded $1.25-6, covered $1.20... Now waiting for another reload :t_up:
Go the Stallion!! :t_up:
JohnnyTheHorse
31-03-2022, 01:07 PM
Final reload for the day. Stoploss and take profit set, so time to enjoy this weather.
Waltzing
31-03-2022, 01:18 PM
dead cat bounce....
ordop
31-03-2022, 01:55 PM
The thing about airlines is that for the time any planes are in the air they are burning ever more expensive fuel with potential capacity (seats) forever unfilled and when they are not in the air they are paying increasing rentals to airports to park the planes. Invest in airports if anything not airlines.
Selling this rights issue like lipstick on a pig to people with very little financial acumen (ordinary New Zealanders) by way of emails to frequent flyers 'refuel for our recovery' is poor form - just like used car salesmen. You can say buyer beware which I agree with but this is really going to hurt the capital markets in New Zealand.
BlackPeter
31-03-2022, 01:56 PM
Quite astounding the resilience of the current market depth with Cap Raise being more than double what was expected. Whats an extra Billion between friends right ;) Surely even retail folk can see what this size Cap Raise means. The resulting dilution of shareholders value. In one way forcing them to inject more capital at an offer to buy 2 shares for each share you currently own at a 'discounted Cap Raise offer' to try to make it look attractive. ie Cost averaging down as the share price will need to be low enough to be attractive to get funds through the cap raise. With no dividends in sight. Years away from breaking even let alone become profitable. Shareholders can expect to see previous low end trough of 0.70-0.80 tested for sure. Will be surprised if there is not a massive sell down ahead of Cap Raise. As post this massive unprecedented (in NZ) cap raise there will not likely be any reason for share price to rally, so those looking for a quick buck off buying in at cap raise offer and selling to make 10-20% won't be interested as likely will at best see SP plateau at Cap Raise price, or slowly decline, as most Cap Raise offers have seen in recent times. As many of us were suggesting on this thread for a long time, blood batch to share holders in the water. Surprised with so much pre warning there wasn't already a mass exodus. Those hat live in hope I guess. But no body expected the raise to be this big. Most analysts are recommending their fund managers downgrade and sell off / reduce current portfolio exposure. Will be interesting to see where Cap Raise price is set and how long support remains in market depth until everyone understands the reality of this 2 Billion dollar 'fund raising campaign' (to pay debt!) that has just been announced.
I think you need to put on your enthusiastic newby hat. Look at it that way. One AIR share was priced at $1.50 - give or take some.
They now offer you the right to buy for each AIR share you hold 2 additional new shiny shares (equally valued to the old shares) for only 53 cents each, i.e. if you buy now one AIR share you get for the price (one AIR share plus $1.06) three shares which would have been last week still worth $4.50!
Pay (at current AIR prices) $1.25 plus 2 times 53 cents i.e. $2.31 and get $4.50 (at last weeks prices) worth of shares ... if you use the Shareclarity DCF value, you even get three shares worth $1.79 each - What a bargain!
Just for clarification ... I don't recommend to do that, but I could imagine that this might be the motivation for the people still queueing up at the buy queue. Why else would anybody want to buy these shares?
Discl: don't hold and don't have a long enough barge pole to buy at any price ...
Beagle
31-03-2022, 02:02 PM
The thing about airlines is that for the time any planes are in the air they are burning ever more expensive fuel with potential capacity (seats) forever unfilled and when they are not in the air they are paying increasing rentals to airports to park the planes. Invest in airports if anything not airlines.
Selling this rights issue like lipstick on a pig to people with very little financial acumen (ordinary New Zealanders) by way of emails to frequent flyers 'refuel for our recovery' is poor form - just like used car salesmen. You can say buyer beware which I agree with but this is really going to hurt the capital markets in New Zealand.
Reminds me very much of My food bag promotors extolling their customers to "tuck in"
stoploss
31-03-2022, 02:13 PM
I think you need to put on your enthusiastic newby hat. Look at it that way. One AIR share was priced at $1.50 - give or take some.
They now offer you the right to buy for each AIR share you hold 2 additional new shiny shares (equally valued to the old shares) for only 53 cents each, i.e. if you buy now one AIR share you get for the price (one AIR share plus $1.06) three shares which would have been last week still worth $4.50!
Pay (at current AIR prices) $1.25 plus 2 times 53 cents i.e. $2.31 and get $4.50 (at last weeks prices) worth of shares ... if you use the Shareclarity DCF value, you even get three shares worth $1.79 each - What a bargain!
Just for clarification ... I don't recommend to do that, but I could imagine that this might be the motivation for the people still queueing up at the buy queue. Why else would anybody want to buy these shares?
Discl: don't hold and don't have a long enough barge pole to buy at any price ...
Interesting the FMA put a halt to this
https://www.fma.govt.nz/news-and-resources/media-releases/interim-stop-order-longhorn/
However there are hundreds if not thousands on investors in Air NZ that are imo about to feel the wrath of the market and suffer a significant loss.
Reminds me very much of My food bag promotors extolling their customers to "tuck in"
or BurgerFuel - "would you like shares with that"
that was despicable
Dassets
31-03-2022, 02:28 PM
Buy $1000 worth. You can always bid for some of the left overseas at 50 cents
ordop
31-03-2022, 02:29 PM
You would hope that the Govt as >50% holder of AIR would make AIR held to a higher level than My Food Bag or BurgerFuel.
Balance
31-03-2022, 02:33 PM
or BurgerFuel - "would you like shares with that"
that was despicable
Have a look at BurgerFuel chart - it traded well above IPO price (as high as $2.75) for a while so investors made money.
Not so with MFB.
rayonline
31-03-2022, 02:34 PM
I think you need to put on your enthusiastic newby hat. Look at it that way. One AIR share was priced at $1.50 - give or take some.
They now offer you the right to buy for each AIR share you hold 2 additional new shiny shares (equally valued to the old shares) for only 53 cents each, i.e. if you buy now one AIR share you get for the price (one AIR share plus $1.06) three shares which would have been last week still worth $4.50!
Pay (at current AIR prices) $1.25 plus 2 times 53 cents i.e. $2.31 and get $4.50 (at last weeks prices) worth of shares ... if you use the Shareclarity DCF value, you even get three shares worth $1.79 each - What a bargain!
Just for clarification ... I don't recommend to do that, but I could imagine that this might be the motivation for the people still queueing up at the buy queue. Why else would anybody want to buy these shares?
Discl: don't hold and don't have a long enough barge pole to buy at any price ...
That was what I thought as well. ASB Depth info showed 1.3M buys vs 666k sells. The special offer of 53c runs for 4 weeks. Whilst the price now is about $1.25NZ I wonder how much this would fall until the end April ..... People could exercise their rights anytime until then. It's not like one could buy today at 53c special offer and sell today at $1.25NZ hahah.
Govt support of this co makes punters bold (and stupid)
stoploss
31-03-2022, 02:39 PM
Govt support of this co makes punters bold (and stupid)
They have been reasonably explicit they won't take their shareholding over 51 % ....
Balance
31-03-2022, 02:43 PM
They have been reasonably explicit they won't take their shareholding over 51 % ....
Labour government in action so anything goes - especially broken promises & undertakings.
Waltzing
31-03-2022, 02:48 PM
They are piling in.....its a sure bet...
Have a look at BurgerFuel chart - it traded well above IPO price (as high as $2.75) for a while so investors made money.
Not so with MFB.
I was commenting on the appropriateness and integrity of how the marketing was directed.
But I don't know what chart you are looking at. Burgerfuel's IPO price was $1.00 back in 2007. It's share price went nowhere but down for years and only got back to its listing price in 2012. I see it got up to 3.5 in 2014 after some news about subway and milford investing but has tanked since then. chart looks like a near perfect parabola.
trading at 33 cents.
another shocker with aggressive marketing towards retail investors was Moa.
Balance
31-03-2022, 02:54 PM
I was commenting on the appropriateness and integrity of how the marketing was directed.
But I don't know what chart you are looking at. Burgerfuel's IPO price was $1.00 back in 2007. It's share price went nowhere but down for years and only got back to its listing price in 2012. I see it got up to 3.5 in 2014 after some news about subway and milford investing but has tanked since then. chart looks like a near perfect parabola.
trading at 33 cents.
another shocker with aggressive marketing towards retail investors was Moa.
250% return on BurgerFuel over 7 years is damn good imo!
My point is that investors in BurgerFuel had the opportunity to make serious money & exit - not so with MFB or Moa.
How long do most people hold shares they buy is obviously also a pertinent point.
Waltzing
31-03-2022, 03:38 PM
Sp holding up over 9 million traded.. they love this stock.
ordop
31-03-2022, 03:49 PM
The thing is they're paying $1.25 now to pay another $1.06 in a months time. What are they doing this all on - the revolving equity portion of their homes? Remembering their is approx. 600m shares in circulation and 1.2b rights.
Balance
31-03-2022, 03:55 PM
Sp holding up over 9 million traded.. they love this stock.
Shorts have to be covered by tomorrow.
couta1
31-03-2022, 04:04 PM
Govt support of this co makes punters bold (and stupid) Grant has deep pockets with the punters money in them.
The thing is they're paying $1.25 now to pay another $1.06 in a months time. What are they doing this all on - the revolving equity portion of their homes? Remembering their is approx. 600m shares in circulation and 1.2b rights.
Rights can simply lapse. No money paid and bring on the underwriters.
winner69
31-03-2022, 04:25 PM
Rights can simply lapse. No money paid and bring on the underwriters.
And if one lets them lapse they might even get a cheque in the mail …..if book build >53 cents
Waltzing
31-03-2022, 04:30 PM
AH yes balance!
ordop
31-03-2022, 04:42 PM
Rights can simply lapse. No money paid and bring on the underwriters.
777, I understand they can lapse and the underwriters step up. But, I was thinking more holistically in that people are buying AIR to participate in this 'special' deal to acquire more at $0.53*2. I just think that with a higher OCR and higher interest rates coming, people doing this on their equity are going to hurt and young people buying AIR who don't have oodles of capital are going to get burnt.
At the end of April, if the underwriters pick up any do you think they are long term holders? FFS.NZX holders will remember the underwrites keeping the price at $0.20 for a very long time.
850man
31-03-2022, 04:54 PM
Grant has deep pockets with the punters money in them.
GR / JA likely to promote co-governance to safeguard the tax payers share in AIR :eek2:
Balance
31-03-2022, 04:56 PM
AH yes balance!
Could be a tight squeeze tomorrow if sellers hold out for a higher price from those covering shorts! Seen it before!
JohnnyTheHorse
31-03-2022, 05:02 PM
No requirement for shorts to cover (unless explicitly stated in their short agreement)? If you are short as it goes ex rights you essentially are now short 2 extra shares at 53c for each 1 you own (i.e. you need to buy back on market 3 shares instead of 1 at some point).
ordop
31-03-2022, 05:02 PM
Shorts do not need to be closed out by tomorrow.
rayonline
31-03-2022, 05:04 PM
What would happen on Monday?
keerti
31-03-2022, 05:16 PM
If I am short on CFDs, how will that play out from Monday?
Balance
31-03-2022, 05:19 PM
No requirement for shorts to cover (unless explicitly stated in their short agreement)? If you are short as it goes ex rights you essentially are now short 2 extra shares at 53c for each 1 you own (i.e. you need to buy back on market 3 shares instead of 1 at some point).
DO CORPORATE ACTIONS AFFECT THE LOAN OF SECURITIES
Corporate actions are events such as dividend payments, takeovers, rights issue, company restructures, returns of capital, buy backs, options exercise, share purchase
plans, and call payments.
In the event of a corporate action being announced it is likely you will be required to close out the position prior to the entitlement date, or be
required to deliver to us either a cash payment, or shares.
JohnnyTheHorse
31-03-2022, 05:23 PM
DO CORPORATE ACTIONS AFFECT THE LOAN OF SECURITIES
Corporate actions are events such as dividend payments, takeovers, rights issue, company restructures, returns of capital, buy backs, options exercise, share purchase
plans, and call payments.
In the event of a corporate action being announced it is likely you will be required to close out the position prior to the entitlement date, or be
required to deliver to us either a cash payment, or shares.
Which would typically be extra collateral as if you were short on a sell price of the rights issue. But again will come down to individual agreements.
Beagle
31-03-2022, 05:58 PM
GR / JA likely to promote co-governance to safeguard the tax payers share in AIR :eek2:
Run for the hills lol
Surprised how this held up today. Obviously a lot of people don't realise the seriousness of the situation AIR's balance sheet is in or the challenges they face in the years ahead.
Arbroath
31-03-2022, 06:12 PM
Run for the hills lol
Surprised how this held up today. Obviously a lot of people don't realise the seriousness of the situation AIR's balance sheet is in or the challenges they face in the years ahead.
Just saw a retail investor on TV3 say he’ll get as many as he can because the Govt won’t let it fail.
God help us all…
dobby41
31-03-2022, 06:17 PM
Just saw a retail investor on TV3 say he’ll get as many as he can because the Govt won’t let it fail.
God help us all…
A lack of understanding for sure.
While the Govt won't let it fail it doesn't mean that the investor will get anything if they have to take over - cents in the dollar.
Balance
31-03-2022, 06:37 PM
Just saw a retail investor on TV3 say he’ll get as many as he can because the Govt won’t let it fail.
God help us all…
Don’t be so harsh - I know of many who bought Air NZ shares when it nearly went broke (Ansett debacle) but was rescued by the government. They made money.
JohnnyTheHorse
31-03-2022, 06:45 PM
If I am short on CFDs, how will that play out from Monday?
Typically you will have a new position opened short at the issue price. So in this case, if you are short 10,000 shares at $1.40, a new short position of 20,000 shares will be opened at an effective sale price of 53 cents. Say trading opened at 80c, you'd be in $6,000 profit on your original position and $5,400 loss on your new 'rights' position.
You must ensure you have sufficient margin in your account to accommodate these new positions. Additionally, it is also sensible to have significantly extra margin in case they change margin requirements due to heightened volatility.
ados_nz
31-03-2022, 07:16 PM
And this is effective from ex rights date? 7pm 5th April?
mikelee
31-03-2022, 07:45 PM
$2.2b will probably last just over a year, with salary the 2nd highest bill, costing the airline more than a billion each year. So unless borders open soon, hopefully by Nov/Dec, and fuel price stabilise it'll continue to be a turbulent ride for the foreseeable future. Direct flight to NYC from Sept is way too soon I reckon. No point in doing that unless you can fill the plane and with testing cost still sky high I doubt that budget tourist will be back in force until next year when most countries finally rid of testing and vaccine requirements.
Beagle
31-03-2022, 08:07 PM
Agree that the new route to New York is mainly about window dressing the revive and thrive story.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520103/nz-shares-steady-despite-air-nz-s-descent.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+31+Mar+ 2022
Jarden and Craigs have updated their target price 1 year hence and see it as 60 and 64 cents respectively, average target price 1 year from now is 62 cps.
Required rate of return in this, which is obviously a very high risk industry, must be at least 10% per annum so that suggests a fair value of about 62 x 0.9 = 56 cps next month. That values the rights @ 3 cps.
I see it as less than that as noted earlier today.
Just for fun...One thing is for sure AIR's aircraft will not be climbing out anything like these ones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC89uDi8mEg
Fun fact as to why airshow demonstrations with the F22 fighter jet are so short.
According to one video I watched the commentator said they burn US 300 gallons (about 1125 liters) a minute, nearly 20 liters a second on full afterburner and they only hold 7500 liters so you get about 5 minutes on full afterburner and its time to land. Obviously in combat anywhere not close to a tanker aircraft for inflight refueling one uses afterburner very sparingly lol.
Dassets
31-03-2022, 10:46 PM
Correct. An adjustment is also made to the entry price to account for the theoretical rights price.
Is Greg getting a large success bonus for building the first Temporary Bridge into the fresh air or does that
come later when Refresh Pocket Raid #2 or #3 becomes necessary to hoodwink the gullable retail holders
when the Story needs to be rewritten for further chapters of 'We see distant lights on horizon' ? ;)
Perhaps in later revisions will come revelations that the big birds fly upside down all the way
to NY to save Avgas and to not blind the eager boys and girls gazing out from a Beehive, as they fly past :)
ados_nz
01-04-2022, 07:21 AM
Which would typically be extra collateral as if you were short on a sell price of the rights issue. But again will come down to individual agreements.
Does anyone have experience with how CMC markets treat this? Their website says
Rights issues
With a rights issue, a company will offer its shareholders a chance to buy newly issued shares, usually at a discounted price, before they are offered to the public.
In these circumstances, CMC Markets' clients might get to choose between three courses of action relating to share spread bets. They may be able to:
1. Sell their rights
2. Take up their rights and trade the cheaper stock
3. Do nothing and let their rights expire
Its not clear how this applied to short positions so was hoping someone has been through this before?
Also, if any adjustment is made would it be expected to occurred on the 5th April at 7pm? (I.e. open the next day at the adjusted price)
shareman
01-04-2022, 08:18 AM
who the hell would want to ever be in the airline industry, its so full of risk
shareman
01-04-2022, 08:18 AM
Totally, run for the hills
Waltzing
01-04-2022, 10:06 AM
another day of million on order in the depth down to 1.20....
this could go on and on... sheep over a cliff...
investors who short can comment.
who the hell would want to ever be in the airline industry, its so full of risk
more so when the blundering arty Politicians on the hill are having a big meddle in things :)
Maxtrade
01-04-2022, 10:12 AM
Agree that the new route to New York is mainly about window dressing the revive and thrive story.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520103/nz-shares-steady-despite-air-nz-s-descent.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+31+Mar+ 2022
Jarden and Craigs have updated their target price 1 year hence and see it as 60 and 64 cents respectively, average target price 1 year from now is 62 cps.
Required rate of return in this, which is obviously a very high risk industry, must be at least 10% per annum so that suggests a fair value of about 62 x 0.9 = 56 cps next month. That values the rights @ 3 cps.
I see it as less than that as noted earlier today.
Just for fun...One thing is for sure AIR's aircraft will not be climbing out anything like these ones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC89uDi8mEg
Fun fact as to why airshow demonstrations with the F22 fighter jet are so short.
According to one video I watched the commentator said they burn US 300 gallons (about 1125 liters) a minute, nearly 20 liters a second on full afterburner and they only hold 7500 liters so you get about 5 minutes on full afterburner and its time to land. Obviously in combat anywhere not close to a tanker aircraft for inflight refueling one uses afterburner very sparingly lol.
The logic behind those still buying at todays SP is irrational. Buying in anything over 0.90c with the acquisition of a further two shares at $.53 would bring average share cost price down to around 0.65c. Which would at best break even on a stagnant turbulent stock. With no substantial dividends. Therefore buying in at todays SP in the 1.2's makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. As cost average price would be substantially higher than where SP will likely fall back to 0.5-0.6. Are current buyers not realising this. Or just hoping SP won't drop to near Cap Raise offer of 0.53??! Again it's another writing on the wall that blind hope seems to be missing? SP next week will be drastically different to where it is today.
ordop
01-04-2022, 10:13 AM
Another thing I find frustrating is the media saying 'this is a 2 for 1 deal at 53cps'. Really that means it could also be viewed as a 1 for 1 deal at $1.06 when the current sp is ~$1.30. Doesn't sound remotely as attractive when you say it like that.
Beagle
01-04-2022, 10:27 AM
The logic behind those still buying at todays SP is irrational. Buying in anything over 0.90c with the acquisition of a further two shares at $.53 would bring average share cost price down to around 0.65c. Which would at best break even on a stagnant turbulent stock. With no substantial dividends. Therefore buying in at todays SP in the 1.2's makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. As cost average price would be substantially higher than where SP will likely fall back to 0.5-0.6. Are current buyers not realising this. Or just hoping SP won't drop to near Cap Raise offer of 0.53??! Again it's another writing on the wall that blind hope seems to be missing? SP next week will be drastically different to where it is today.
I don't think a lot of the newbie investors have seen a rights issue like this before. Old hands know the share price gravitates down towards the rights issue price the closer you get to the end of the rights trading period. Its going to be an interesting month for the AIR share price...hope investors have their seat belts firmly fastened and tray tables folded away because extreme turbulence is imminent :eek2:
BlackPeter
01-04-2022, 10:29 AM
I don't think a lot of the newbie investors have seen a rights issue like this before. Old hands know the share price gravitates down towards the rights issue price the closer you get to the end of the rights trading period. Its going to be an interesting month for the AIR share price...hope investors have their seat belts firmly fastened and tray tables folded away because extreme turbulence is imminent :eek2:
... and don't forget to mention the paperbags - they really might come handy :) :
ordop
01-04-2022, 10:32 AM
or blowing on the whistle if they find themselves in distress.
Bob50
01-04-2022, 10:37 AM
Have I got the maths right.
Jayden and Craig’s have a target price in one years time of 62 cents. Therefore each 3 shares held has a combined value of $1.86. 2 of those 3 shares need to be purchased at 53 cents each in the rights offer, this values each current share held at 80 cents.
And this is the ‘break even point’ if one wanted to make a gain in the next 12 months that values the base share even lower.
The big assumption I suppose is value in 12 months.
Maxtrade
01-04-2022, 10:38 AM
Effectively what they have done is forced current shareholders to buy more shares to cost average down. Forcing shareholders to buy triple the amount of shares they currently have, ie buy an extra 2 shares for each share they currently own. If the shareholder chooses not to then they will see their share devalue to ~ 0.53- 0.64c range. So for example if someone paid more than $1 for their current AIR shares then rather than seeing those shares devalue down to 0.53 they are offering the shareholders to buy an extra 2 shares at 0.53, in order to cost average their buy in price down. Thats pretty rough for current shareholders. Basically forcing shareholders backs against the wall saying cough up more money or see your investment tank. With the result being loosing less on the SP decline. Own triple the amount of shares but worth 60% less than what they were recently trading at $1.5. Either way loose big if don't buy in 2 for each share owned, or cough up and buy in triple the amount of shares, and sit on a low end range bound SP with massive headwinds, not making a dividend. That's one way to financially extort more money in a Cap Raise out of existing shareholders isn't it! Either way SP will crash to Cap Raise price with all of this. Fact remains AIR has been hit hard by the Pandemic and now rising fuel costs etc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes for flight prices to go up. And the fine line of trying to get more people in the air flying again versus ticket prices being too expensive, along with higher inflation cost of living. Many challenges ahead. But for exhausting shareholders you really need to buy in more at the 2 to 1. But makes no sense to be buying in today into this mess as it looks like many buyers are. Wonder if they have thought it through clearly.
JohnnyTheHorse
01-04-2022, 10:39 AM
Sharesies crowd in for another 400,000 shares this morning. Hard to resist such a discount by the looks of things.
Maxtrade
01-04-2022, 10:48 AM
Sharesies crowd in for another 400,000 shares this morning. Hard to resist such a discount by the looks of things.
Someone needs to help educate them. Seems sharsies isn't being entirely open in its recommendations to its clients. Hopefully some of them might read this thread and get a better grasp and understanding of what all this means and how it will play out.
Whatever they are buying in now they are going to need to buy in another 2 times that amount of shares at "discount price" 0.53. Then end up with all these shares sitting at an average cost less than where SP will settle in at. Guys n girls think about it, does that make any sense? Maybe just sit back and be patient. Let it run its course. We will have plenty of opportunity to buy in at a lower SP after the Cap Raise than what your average buy in price will be if buy in at todays SP, or anything above 0.90 for that matter.
Best of luck to all. Take a parachute with you.
winner69
01-04-2022, 10:51 AM
Effectively what they have done is forced current shareholders to buy more shares to cost average down. Forcing shareholders to buy triple the amount of shares they currently have, ie buy an extra 2 shares for each share they currently own. If the shareholder chooses not to then they will see their share devalue to ~ 0.53- 0.64c range. So for example if someone paid more than $1 for their current AIR shares then rather than seeing those shares devalue down to 0.53 they are offering the shareholders to buy an extra 2 shares at 0.53, in order to cost average their buy in price down. Thats pretty rough for current shareholders. Basically forcing shareholders backs against the wall saying cough up more money or see your investment tank. With the result being loosing less on the SP decline. Own triple the amount of shares but worth 60% less than what they were recently trading at $1.5. Either way loose big if don't buy in 2 for each share owned, or cough up and buy in triple the amount of shares, and sit on a low end range bound SP with massive headwinds, not making a dividend. That's one way to financially extort more money in a Cap Raise out of existing shareholders isn't it! Either way SP will crash to Cap Raise price with all of this. Fact remains AIR has been hit hard by the Pandemic and now rising fuel costs etc. Will be interesting to see how long it takes for flight prices to go up. And the fine line of trying to get more people in the air flying again versus ticket prices being too expensive, along with higher inflation cost of living. Many challenges ahead. But for exhausting shareholders you really need to buy in more at the 2 to 1. But makes no sense to be buying in today into this mess as it looks like many buyers are. Wonder if they have thought it through clearly.
Somebody has to bail them out
Still better than the government providing all the new capital and leaving existing shareholders with a pittance worth not very much at all
BlackPeter
01-04-2022, 10:55 AM
Sharesies crowd in for another 400,000 shares this morning. Hard to resist such a discount by the looks of things.
Don't blame the Sharesies crowd. They just don't know what they are doing. The real probem is subsequent governments running down our school system and life education.
Hey - I used to learn at school nearly 50 years ago (in a different country) about the basics of the sharemarket as well as about maths and statistics. They considered this just as honing of the life skills. Good schools back in
Germany.
What do we teach the young generation in our schools? Maybe they learn some words in Te Reo (though language education is just another joke in NZ schools), but they certainly don't learn about the stock market. I still remember the guy running teacher education in Christchurch boosting some years ago that maths is not important anymore. He probably was never good in maths, so they made him head of education - makes sense.
Blame politics and the idiots they put in charge of teachers education for this misery.
But I suppose the government does not know either what they are doing ... i.e. can we really blame them?
Anyway - its probably not just AIR which deserves to bite the dust ...
Maxtrade
01-04-2022, 10:55 AM
Let's hope mom n pops who had a few hundred thousand of their investment savings in cant fail AIR can access another few hundred thousand then to not loose out. For those who don't have extra funds laying around to buy in more and cost average down then they will be screwed. Either way you look at it, it's bleak.
causecelebre
01-04-2022, 12:29 PM
A quote from some Sharesies Social Media. Pretty much sums it up "This is our national carrier who has been hit hard. Unless you never plan on flying with them, help ‘em out….if it doesn’t work in your favour, treat it as a donation and concentrate on your other investments making up the shortfall"
Beagle
01-04-2022, 01:11 PM
A quote from some Sharesies Social Media. Pretty much sums it up "This is our national carrier who has been hit hard. Unless you never plan on flying with them, help ‘em out….if it doesn’t work in your favour, treat it as a donation and concentrate on your other investments making up the shortfall"
Oh dear...that's pretty pathetic. Fact is that even when AIR is not paying the Crown dividends or tax they benefit to the tune of hundreds of millions per annum in GST receipts and PAYE from all the staff. This is all about socialising the losses and risks so the Govt can continue to reap the rewards and well as keep critical transport infrastructure going.
The poor devastated kids and their mothers displaced from Ukraine are just a "little" more deserving of philanthropic support I would have thought and donations towards that cause are generally eligible for a donations rebate.
I'm still short CFD's through CMC
I did cover a few more at 1:20 but for the rest I'm not doing anything, afaik nothing needs to be done....
I'm not concerning myself too much with the mechanics of it all - I figure the platform will work through it
Bob50
01-04-2022, 01:24 PM
Sharesies investors own more than 6% of Air NZ. Given the government owns 51%, Sharesies have close to 12.5% of the available market, a significant percentage.
Popeye
01-04-2022, 01:42 PM
I do not understand the attraction of the upside scenario (Air NZ make good money again in future). This scenario, which is by no means certain, and by all means years away, is not attractive at current SP levels. The optimistic scenario seems to be they get most (90%?) of the way back to where they were, and maybe start paying dividends in four years all going well.
Using Air's last fair sailing financial year of 2019, they had $2bn in equity and EPS of $0.24. Even optimistically assuming Air gets back to those earnings without any more capital dilutions, that would only achieve a 10% RoI for anyone taking up their rights (assuming recent SP $1.37 plus $1.06 rights so $2.43 all in to maintain shareholding).
This is a mystifying stock.
A bit simplistic, but the risk reward seems extremely unbalanced to the risk side, if you were to require the potential of at least a 20% return, you would be reluctant to pay much more than $0.10-$0.15 for pre-rights shares...
Lease
01-04-2022, 02:33 PM
For those said enough bad words on Air, have you ever noted its latest half year result made positive operating cash flow? Even the border is fully closed and a few months of that period was lockdown domestically.
Waltzing
01-04-2022, 02:40 PM
yes half year P&L is here...
Brackets are debts in this P&L, Credits in the PL are ABS(GeneralLedger.Sales)
Air New Zealand 2022 Interim Results - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387838)
shareman
01-04-2022, 02:44 PM
Oh dear...that's pretty pathetic. Fact is that even when AIR is not paying the Crown dividends or tax they benefit to the tune of hundreds of millions per annum in GST receipts and PAYE from all the staff. This is all about socialising the losses and risks so the Govt can continue to reap the rewards and well as keep critical transport infrastructure going.
The poor devastated kids and their mothers displaced from Ukraine are just a "little" more deserving of philanthropic support I would have thought and donations towards that cause are generally eligible for a donations rebate.
Hilarious, Hilarious, I personally dont like Sharesies for many reason but good luck to them
Lease
01-04-2022, 02:48 PM
yes half year P&L is here...
Brackets are debts in this P&L, Credits in the PL are ABS(GeneralLedger.Sales)
Air New Zealand 2022 Interim Results - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387838)
Loss was almost all due to depreciation. Nothing to do with cashflow. After this time capital raising, AIR's debts will almost disappear.
winner69
01-04-2022, 02:49 PM
For those said enough bad words on Air, have you ever noted its late
st half year result made positive operating cash flow? Even the border is fully closed and a few months of that period was lockdown domestically.
If you moved $200m of lease payments up from finance to operating huge cash outflow
Blimey accounting standards
Lease
01-04-2022, 02:52 PM
If you moved $200m of lease payments up from finance to operating huge cash outflow
Blimey accounting standards
Same as at 31/12/2020, cashflow has been improved substantially over the period.
unhuman
01-04-2022, 03:19 PM
Loss was almost all due to depreciation. Nothing to do with cashflow. After this time capital raising, AIR's debts will almost disappear.
Depreciation is very real in the airline business.
Waltzing
01-04-2022, 03:29 PM
Not solvent without the cap raise.
"Loss was almost all due to depreciation"
yes that is correct. Still not solvent without the cap raise.
Anyone get a handle on how many big birds AIR actually owned, how many were leased
and how many were parked up outside Ayers Rock or Nevada fully impaired (or
should that be financially impaled) ? ;)
New Accounting Standards very conveniently gloss over & fog out many of these sort
of facts now :)
Depreciation is very real in the airline business.
so is impairment of wallets and purses all the way round :)
Arbroath
01-04-2022, 03:51 PM
Loss was almost all due to depreciation. Nothing to do with cashflow. After this time capital raising, AIR's debts will almost disappear.
Ignorance is bliss
How do you think the next 12-18 months will look with jet fuel well above 100 USD and many of the seats being occupied by passengers that are using credits = no cash coming in for many of the seats but jet fuel being burned.
On my watch list but won’t consider until they are much lower which they will be as reality sets in.
Waltzing
01-04-2022, 04:06 PM
The balance sheet looks terrible.
850man
01-04-2022, 04:21 PM
SP down 11c since the cap raise news yesterday. Plenty of volume being traded at that level, not just the Sharsies folk. Cannot understand why this is an appealing investment at this price especially with the future outlook still bleak
winner69
01-04-2022, 04:30 PM
I still count myself lucky that 2 years ago tomorrow AIR fronted up with CASH (no argument) in 6 days for 4 premium economy return flights to London that were in throes of being cancelled.
No credits for me
BlackPeter
01-04-2022, 04:32 PM
I still count myself lucky that 2 years ago tomorrow AIR fronted up with CASH (no argument) in 6 days for 4 premium economy return flights to London that were in throes of being cancelled.
No credits for me
Well, "nomen est omen" as the Romans would have said ... :p;
Sideshow Bob
01-04-2022, 04:41 PM
I liked how the analyst the other day on One News said that without the Govt backing, Air NZ would be "technically insolvent".....yet people still pile in.
Lease
01-04-2022, 06:12 PM
Ignorance is bliss
How do you think the next 12-18 months will look with jet fuel well above 100 USD and many of the seats being occupied by passengers that are using credits = no cash coming in for many of the seats but jet fuel being burned.
On my watch list but won’t consider until they are much lower which they will be as reality sets in.
Go to have a look Air's Fuel Hedging Update. Will make you well informed investor.
Waltzing
01-04-2022, 06:24 PM
"Cannot understand why this is an appealing investment at this price especially with the future outlook still bleak"
must believe that its a BARGAIN!
Arbroath
01-04-2022, 08:40 PM
Go to have a look Air's Fuel Hedging Update. Will make you well informed investor.
I’m quite aware of their fuel hedging situation. Hedging only delays the inevitable unless they get very lucky very soon.
Snow Leopard
02-04-2022, 08:37 AM
I ran a quick & dirty value analysis on AIR based on the information available and applied a reasonable discount for safety given the circumstances and came up with a value for buying AIR shares of....
[ drumroll ]
....$0.538.
Also much as paying a dividend is seen as an important thing for many Kiwi companies I think 2026 is too early.
Disclaimer:
Done purely as a theoretical exercise, you will not find me on their share register in the foreseeable future.
Bob50
02-04-2022, 09:17 AM
It has not just been the sharsies buying up these recently.
Direct broking clients had it as the 2nd most popular share for their clients to buy up to the week ending 18/3/22 and it’s popularity increased to 1st for the week ending 25/3/22.
Quite a lurch in the opposite direction. For the week ending 1-4 AIR became Direct Broking most popular share to sell.
winner69
02-04-2022, 09:25 AM
Been lot of activity on ASX
ASX accounts for 44% of total shares traded last 2 days (on NZX and ASX)
Those Aussies are pretty clever
Beagle
02-04-2022, 10:26 AM
I ran a quick & dirty value analysis on AIR based on the information available and applied a reasonable discount for safety given the circumstances and came up with a value for buying AIR shares of....
[ drumroll ]
....$0.538.
Also much as paying a dividend is seen as an important thing for many Kiwi companies I think 2026 is too early.
Disclaimer:
Done purely as a theoretical exercise, you will not find me on their share register in the foreseeable future.
Well known the endangered cat is adverse to AIR so a theoretical valuation offers no real insight into the furry one's thinking.
What price that fully accounts for all known risks and all unknown risks might tempt the cat out of its lair might be of more interest.
For what its worth I might come out of my kennel and put a paw up for a few in due course if it gets down to about 25 cents but no worries if it doesn't as I am content to watch this slow motion train wreck from the sidelines and have almost infinite patience when it comes to possibly buying back in at some future opportune point.
In market moves overseas today I see the Dow Jones transport index closed down ~ 5%. AIR's share price on Monday might surprise a few punters and the trend in April might be quite interesting.
BlackPeter
02-04-2022, 10:29 AM
I ran a quick & dirty value analysis on AIR based on the information available and applied a reasonable discount for safety given the circumstances and came up with a value for buying AIR shares of....
[ drumroll ]
....$0.538.
Also much as paying a dividend is seen as an important thing for many Kiwi companies I think 2026 is too early.
Disclaimer:
Done purely as a theoretical exercise, you will not find me on their share register in the foreseeable future.
Interesting - I would have thought they are less worth (maybe half), but maybe I just require (and therefore need to price in) a longer barge pole to touch these shares (and super long barge poles are expensive :) ;
I guess it all depends on ones working assumptions re the return of international travel and the development of fuel prices as well as consumer acceptance of higher ticket prices. So many questions, so little do we know.
Anyway - if you are right, rights should trade next week at 0.8 cents each. I reccon they will start higher, but while we know that the market is always right, we know as well that the market has a habit of frequently changing its mind.
Beagle
02-04-2022, 10:51 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fran-osullivan-air-new-zealand-chair-we-have-righted-the-ship/PUZYPTZ4GN3OZPTIJWAGCMQHJY/ Paywalled.
The charm offensive continues.
My thoughts, how do you make a small fortune in Aviation ? Start with a big one :)
Balance
02-04-2022, 10:53 AM
Been lot of activity on ASX
ASX accounts for 44% of total shares traded last 2 days (on NZX and ASX)
Those Aussies are pretty clever
Would not read too much into it myself.
NZX is dead without the Aussie instos.
Just have to watch the moribund turnover on all stocks on NZX before ASX opens - that’s how important ASX is now to the NZX. The real market emerges when the Aussie instos come out to play.
Matter of time before ASX takes over NZX?
iceman
02-04-2022, 11:19 AM
A good AIR article from David Hargreaves
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/115137/david-hargreaves-wishes-air-new-zealand-well-thinks-their-announced-capital-raising
Dassets
02-04-2022, 11:30 AM
You are higher than me. Looking at the NTA, current and forward losses yet to be built in, normalization of the pax credit approach(and the cashflow hole which impacts dividend recommencement) I would assign nil value to the existing business, no goodwill at all.
When you then look at the Schedule of disclaimers(the only thing missing a disclaimer is the disclaimer and that is arguable) equity holders are taking more risk than the Wright Bros. I come up with 35 cents per share or 105 for three. Yes slightly less than the cash issue but you have to take off investment banking, underwriting etc. I would have thought fees will be $50m.
Here's an idea. Pay the pilots 50% in shares for the next 5 years because they certainly won't buy a share. Other non net income generating higher risk companies do exactly this.
Oh sorry I forgot the contract. Which leads me back to it should have gone into receivership, ditch the leases , employments contracts. Reset for the new business.
As for the three flights a week to New York you can only wonder. Did they update their research to post covid and carbon. Doubt it. Maybe it is to have a good link for the PM To transition to the UN. It seems like the aviation version of Te Huia. Looks good to a 5th(year 11????) form economics class but not many others.
Beagle
02-04-2022, 12:22 PM
I like your cynical approach Dassets but I cannot bring myself to pay 35 cents per share, post capital raise.
I think they will burn through that capital faster than an F22 fighter jet on full afterburner, primarily because they did not do the full reset of company expenses this golden opportunity afforded them.
To be clear, this was AIR's once in a generation crisis opportunity to do a full reset but they still have countless numbers of staff earning $300,000 plus with the same level of entitlement they had previously.
It still looks like one of N.Z. most expensive social welfare programs. Only when they get bums on seats in a big way is this potentially investable again and in the meantime anyone paying more than half the capital raise price, (approx 26 cents) is in my opinion putting their hand up to be a person happy to accept they're part of the socialization process of the losses AIR will make in the next few years.
Wait for the crying and screaming to come from the masses when airfares go up to level's where this actually could make money. Anyone expecting cheap domestic flights under $100 each way to anywhere should probably adjust their thinking.
This all part of Labour's charade to have us believe the NZ economy is sound and Robertson's 'got this'. This is 'Te Huia' on steroids (a double dose now with half price public transport fares). Gotta get that billions in Covid loans 'out the door' as Nash would say..
warthog
02-04-2022, 04:30 PM
Such businesses need the Sword of Damocles rather than the certainty of a bailout. They go into receivership, and are swiftly purchased by the market at a realistic valuation given required changes to result in a viable business. Valued, productive staff are retained, and dead wood is culled. Instead, AirNZ is now a zombie.
I like your cynical approach Dassets but I cannot bring myself to pay 35 cents per share, post capital raise.
I think they will burn through that capital faster than an F22 fighter jet on full afterburner, primarily because they did not do the full reset of company expenses this golden opportunity afforded them.
To be clear, this was AIR's once in a generation crisis opportunity to do a full reset but they still have countless numbers of staff earning $300,000 plus with the same level of entitlement they had previously.
It still looks like one of N.Z. most expensive social welfare programs. Only when they get bums on seats in a big way is this potentially investable again and in the meantime anyone paying more than half the capital raise price, (approx 26 cents) is in my opinion putting their hand up to be a person happy to accept they're part of the socialization process of the losses AIR will make in the next few years.
Wait for the crying and screaming to come from the masses when airfares go up to level's where this actually could make money. Anyone expecting cheap domestic flights under $100 each way to anywhere should probably adjust their thinking.
Dassets
02-04-2022, 07:37 PM
You know it is all a bit of a charade. AIR came out yesterday with a one day only sale across the network ie the day after the rights announcement. I brought a biz fare akl to lax for 6T which the day before was 10t and the day after 8.5T. Going to a windfarm conference which will be interesting. But the point is AIR today come out with oh demand is so good and recovering we are getting swamped. Haha if you sell biz tickets for 6t that tends to happen. Plus you get 10% back in airpoints and a stack of status points. When was that airfare last 6t (ignoring the last 2 covid years)?
Sideshow Bob
02-04-2022, 08:06 PM
Even got the agents pumping them......
Flights sell out, agents say demand 'back with a vengeance' | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/business/flights-sell-out-agents-say-demand-back-vengeance)
Stuff says Jarden reduced its target price to 65c. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128222113/air-new-zealands-share-price-takes-a-dive-after-trading-halt-lifted
Good Returns says Jarden and Craigs have given a new target price of 60 cents and 64 cents, respectively. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520103/nz-shares-steady-despite-air-nz-s-descent.html
Anyone know which is Jarden's actual target? And, can one subscribe to these broker advices? If so, how?
Dassets
03-04-2022, 08:11 PM
Re access to broker research. ANS In the normal way , that is become a client, pay bro or mgmt fees so people can get paid for spending time and writing the research. Sorry to be so glib.
Stuff says Jarden reduced its target price to 65c. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128222113/air-new-zealands-share-price-takes-a-dive-after-trading-halt-lifted
Good Returns says Jarden and Craigs have given a new target price of 60 cents and 64 cents, respectively. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520103/nz-shares-steady-despite-air-nz-s-descent.html
Anyone know which is Jarden's actual target? And, can one subscribe to these broker advices? If so, how?
Jarden have a 12 month target price of 65c - just checked the report.
winner69
04-04-2022, 08:14 AM
Jenny Ruth says retail investors getting screwed
Dame Therese disagrees
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/air-nzs-retail-shareholders-are-getting-screwed
Snow Leopard
04-04-2022, 08:15 AM
AIRRG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/AIRRG)
G, the seventh letter of the alphabet and presumably the seventh outing of the AIR begging bowl.
Assigned a nominal market value of 10.3c a piece.
Meanwhile AIR (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/AIR) recast to $1.163.
Something has got to give ;)
Recaster
04-04-2022, 08:29 AM
Re access to broker research. ANS In the normal way , that is become a client, pay bro or mgmt fees so people can get paid for spending time and writing the research. Sorry to be so glib.
I have come to the conclusion over many years that sell-side analyses are largely piffle.
Their job is to support in-house brokers flogging shares and getting investment banking work.
Thus, the scant number of sell recommendations because they cause offence to potential banking clients.
The sell-side sell recommendations I've seen are where a company is totally ruined or otherwise unlikely to provide banking work.
Buy-side analyses are much more objective but harder to find if it's even possible. Buy-side is made up largely of fund managers.
Poolboy
04-04-2022, 08:48 AM
Being an investor- NOT a day trader, it's happy days for me.
I'll be taking up the 53 cents offer.
It can't get too much worse, unless we have WW3, but even then why would an eight year old boy get called up. So I should be fine in that respect too.
winner69
04-04-2022, 10:08 AM
NZX Product Operations advises that the reference price for AIR and AIRRG is incorrect on NZX.com.
The correct reference prices are below:
• AIR - $0.775
• AIRRG - $0.245
Maxtrade
04-04-2022, 10:19 AM
NZX Product Operations advises that the reference price for AIR and AIRRG is incorrect on NZX.com.
The correct reference prices are below:
• AIR - $0.775
• AIRRG - $0.245
Looking like she's his buyers have got it wrong again. Lining up to buy in at $.80c. Doesn't qualify as being able to buy extra at 0.53 Cap Raise price. Why buy in at 0.80c when all indicators are flashing red and we know SP is going to drop back to near Cap Raise price. Buying in at 0.80c would be a loss of about 35% from where SP will fall to. Are sharpies advising their clients on this or?
Master98
04-04-2022, 10:24 AM
NZX Product Operations advises that the reference price for AIR and AIRRG is incorrect on NZX.com.
The correct reference prices are below:
• AIR - $0.775
• AIRRG - $0.245
hopeless people blame on "NZX system error".
My CFD prices and numbers have all changed!
I don’t get it tbh
BlackPeter
04-04-2022, 10:29 AM
Being an investor- NOT a day trader, it's happy days for me.
I'll be taking up the 53 cents offer.
It can't get too much worse, unless we have WW3, but even then why would an eight year old boy get called up. So I should be fine in that respect too.
Hmm - with all due respect ... I hope you made these comments in jest?
Of course - it may or may not get worse for AIR from here (though I would consider it unwise to discount at this stage the possibility of WW3 ... just look at WW2 - it took the Americans at that stage as well 2 years to join the action), but even if you are right and it does not get worse - how long can a company survive writing annual losses of some $800m a year?
Sure - we always will need air transport, but unfortunately AIR missed its chance to use the last couple of years to slim down and tone its mussles during the crisis. They kept all the belly fat and expensive overhead from the good years and are now - compared to the competition - a quite slow, fat and heavy operator in a slim and agile world.
I would be interested to see and understand your working assumptions re future earnings and future expenses ...
A wise man once said: Income above expenses means happiness, income below expenses means misery.
High fixed cost, reduced revenue and increasing operational costs (fuel prices) are an unhealthy combination in order to achieve economical happiness ...
Poolboy
04-04-2022, 10:47 AM
A share price doesn't always reflect what it's worth in numbers. It tends to reflect what Joe Average thinks it's worth. Or a case of Joe Average wanting a piece of the action. A cannot imagine it getting below 53 cents without a bunch of hopeful punters jumping onboard and keeping it elevated at a certain point.
Looking like she's his buyers have got it wrong again. Lining up to buy in at $.80c. Doesn't qualify as being able to buy extra at 0.53 Cap Raise price. Why buy in at 0.80c when all indicators are flashing red and we know SP is going to drop back to near Cap Raise price. Buying in at 0.80c would be a loss of about 35% from where SP will fall to. Are sharpies advising their clients on this or?
Shareies don't give advice. They just execute trades for you.
This AIR debacle is going to scare off a whole new generation of investors.
JohnnyTheHorse
04-04-2022, 11:00 AM
In the meantime though, this initial price rise will be putting some pressure on leveraged short positions.
BlackPeter
04-04-2022, 11:01 AM
A share price doesn't always reflect what it's worth in numbers. It tends to reflect what Joe Average thinks it's worth. Or a case of Joe Average wanting a piece of the action. A cannot imagine it getting below 53 cents without a bunch of hopeful punters jumping onboard and keeping it elevated at a certain point.
Absolutely - hype is a significant parameter determining the share price. Problem is just - it comes and goes, it is fickle and unpredictable.
Looking at the basics ... how much is a company worth to you which lost in 2020 40 cents per share, lost in 2021 26 cents per share and is scheduled to lose in 2022 34 cents per share (pre CR numbers ... i.e. loss will - given the trebling of the shares - drop to something like 11 cents per share - hey, this is progress :) ) for which nobody can predict the future?
Hint ... huge black clouds are gathering at the horizon and coming closer ...
Arbroath
04-04-2022, 11:04 AM
In the meantime though, this initial price rise will be putting some pressure on leveraged short positions.
This thing is becoming New Zealand's Gamestop...
Lease
04-04-2022, 11:08 AM
Looks investors are not so pessimistic!
Waltzing
04-04-2022, 11:12 AM
"They just execute trades for you."
since the investor trader doesnt own the shares... they are executing a proxy and really they are playing with your money ..
"This thing is becoming New Zealand's Gamestop..."
well there is an air plane involved that does try to make some money....
real planes that fly...
sorry when does it pay a DIV again and how much?
turnip
04-04-2022, 11:17 AM
Shareies don't give advice. They just execute trades for you.
This AIR debacle is going to scare off a whole new generation of investors.
The last figure I heard was that Sharesies members had iabout $60 million invested in AIR out of a total of over $2 billion, so about 3% of total investments.
I don't know what the distrubution is like, there are surely some with a lot more than 3% and others with zero, but I don't think 3% is such a big deal even if AIR turned out to be a total loss.
(I am a Sharesies member, don't hold AIR, just interested to see how it turns out.)
Maxtrade
04-04-2022, 11:24 AM
Looking like she's his buyers have got it wrong again. Lining up to buy in at $.80c. Doesn't qualify as being able to buy extra at 0.53 Cap Raise price. Why buy in at 0.80c when all indicators are flashing red and we know SP is going to drop back to near Cap Raise price. Buying in at 0.80c would be a loss of about 35% from where SP will fall to. Are sharpies advising their clients on this or?
* sharsies (auto spell)
LaserEyeKiwi
04-04-2022, 11:38 AM
13681
I don’t really agree with the headline - retail investors aren’t being screwed now, they were just idiots hanging on to or buying into AirNZ for the past year or more when the company itself (along with basically every professional investor/analyst) was saying that there was going to be a very large dilutive capital raise to be done.
If a retail investor chooses to make an investment in an individual company, they better know everything about that company from a financial perspective. Not doing so is just lazy..
Waltzing
04-04-2022, 11:45 AM
"don't hold AIR,"
the SHAZ hold nothing ... its a proxy
turnip
04-04-2022, 11:51 AM
"don't hold AIR,"
the SHAZ hold nothing ... its a proxy
It is easy to transfer shares out of Sharesies onto the regsiter. I have about 90% of my holdings under my own CSN, 10% in Sharesies trust. No AIR in either.
Waltzing
04-04-2022, 11:59 AM
Off market transfers are always easy.
JohnnyTheHorse
04-04-2022, 12:03 PM
Looks like a squeeze to me :eek2:
Arbroath
04-04-2022, 12:03 PM
The AIR price today is pure insanity...At 93c that is effectively $1.73 ($0.93 x 3 = $2.79 - $1.06) so up 36% since Friday....just WOW
AIR's equity worth $3.2b which was basically peak worth when it was making $400-500m a year and paying big dividends...now what you get is a 4-year drought and a still worse balance sheet even after raising capital than they had 3 years ago...
Beagle
04-04-2022, 12:08 PM
95 cents last traded lol
Arbroath
04-04-2022, 12:12 PM
95 cents last traded lol
I think the issue here Beagle is we do not understand the new paradigm that is AIR today!
Looks like a squeeze to me :eek2:
yeh I've had a stop loss hit, I cant ****in believe it !!!
not material to me but just the incredibility of it !
Sideshow Bob
04-04-2022, 12:22 PM
4.91m shares through so far today, 3,714 trades.
Average 1,322 shares per trade.
Goodness me - what just happened with AIR ? - over the buck at the moment ;)
ordop
04-04-2022, 12:31 PM
I'm surprised that the NZX has not put this security into halt due to a speeding ticket. The market cap has risen from $1.42b on Friday to $2.35b on Monday. Seems like a rapidly growing company. Are they into lithium or invested in the cloud or something?
Beagle
04-04-2022, 12:34 PM
I think the issue here Beagle is we do not understand the new paradigm that is AIR today!
Its not us that don't understand things.
There must be some institutional support perhaps with govt nodding or something because this is insane
Beagle
04-04-2022, 12:52 PM
$1.045 is absolutely nuts.
percy
04-04-2022, 12:52 PM
There must be some institutional support perhaps with govt nodding or something because this is insane
Looks as though the NZX has its own Gameshop.
Screw the shorts.!.
Interesting watching from a safe distance...
snigmac
04-04-2022, 12:52 PM
Ex record date is tomorrow, so the best day to get in would be today and tomorrow? I think there may be a bloodbath on Wednesday.
Looks as though the NZX has its own Gameshop.
Screw the shorts.!.
Interesting watching from a safe distance...
Haha, agree 100%. Don't play the fire game with big boys and their algos. Just watch the fun from very safe distance.
Baa_Baa
04-04-2022, 12:55 PM
Coincidence that today's gap-down low of $0.80 is exactly the monthly Covid low in 2020?
ados_nz
04-04-2022, 12:56 PM
Nuts! Short position burnt and no shorting allowed on CMC now.... An expensive lesson on taking profits when you have the opportunity.
Maxtrade
04-04-2022, 01:02 PM
Nuts! Short position burnt and no shorting allowed on CMC now.... An expensive lesson on taking profits when you have the opportunity.
Seems to be some screwing the shorts at play today. Plus last minute buy in's to 'qualify' for the cap raise price. Will be momentary rally today from low 0.80. By friday will be well below 0.80 though, that's a given. Reload of shorts Wednesday.
ralph
04-04-2022, 01:05 PM
Just pure patriotism
Needless to say this is not shared over the ditch in the asx
JohnnyTheHorse
04-04-2022, 01:06 PM
What scenes! I closed my small short position before ex-rights with the intention to re-enter exrights, as I anticipated a large Sharesies bid would come in Monday morning giving me a good entry again. After seeing the momentum this morning I ended up long (which I never thought would happen), which I've since closed. I would be shorting at these levels but can't get short supply. Hopefully it becomes available with all the stops being hit.
Lease
04-04-2022, 01:09 PM
What scenes! I closed my small short position before ex-rights with the intention to re-enter exrights, as I anticipated a large Sharesies bid would come in Monday morning giving me a good entry again. After seeing the momentum this morning I ended up long (which I never thought would happen), which I've since closed. I would be shorting at these levels but can't get short supply. Hopefully it becomes available with all the stops being hit.
Never speculation:)
Ex record date is tomorrow, so the best day to get in would be today and tomorrow? I think there may be a bloodbath on Wednesday.
They are ex rights today. Record day is tomorrow.
winner69
04-04-2022, 01:18 PM
Can we say with the AIZ action on the ASX compared to AIR on NZX (assuming no sharesies impact) that the Aussies are a clever bunch
Popeye
04-04-2022, 01:26 PM
The efficient markets theory seems to have been debunked. Maybe we missed the news release of Air NZs pivot to blockchain (Blockchain Air NZ).
Beagle
04-04-2022, 01:45 PM
Nuts! Short position burnt and no shorting allowed on CMC now.... An expensive lesson on taking profits when you have the opportunity.
This is one of the reasons why I don't get into shorting unless I know the person lending me the shares. When you really, really want to short a stock, often you can't.
Anyone who contractually wants to lend me 100,000 AIR shares for 12 months, please let me know immediately !
Dassets
04-04-2022, 01:47 PM
Been able to maintain my short. Couldn't get a clear answer on Friday on the mechanics. Now I know which is what I was worried about. Anyway currently the share price is effectively up 35%. Another part of this joke is that the rights are actually 1 for 2. Yes that is right! The issue is a 2 for 1 then the rights are a 1 right for 2 shares. Nver been done in the world like that. I would say it is someone in AIR that screwed up initially and then covering their mistake. Looking at price providerse veryone thinks the share price is down, normally it is adjusted properly, hence the buying.
To close the FMA should tell NZX to halt trading. This market is neither functioning nor transparent.
CFD position holders actually can see what the position is and no-one lese can because they see the loss or profit in the account. It is right.
winner69
04-04-2022, 02:14 PM
Been able to maintain my short. Couldn't get a clear answer on Friday on the mechanics. Now I know which is what I was worried about. Anyway currently the share price is effectively up 35%. Another part of this joke is that the rights are actually 1 for 2. Yes that is right! The issue is a 2 for 1 then the rights are a 1 right for 2 shares. Nver been done in the world like that. I would say it is someone in AIR that screwed up initially and then covering their mistake. Looking at price providerse veryone thinks the share price is down, normally it is adjusted properly, hence the buying.
To close the FMA should tell NZX to halt trading. This market is neither functioning nor transparent.
CFD position holders actually can see what the position is and no-one lese can because they see the loss or profit in the account. It is right.
Now that will confuse many punters ....should have done 1 for 3 .... ie 1 existing share equals 1 right to buy 3 shares at 35 cents .... would have made it seem even cheaper
ordop
04-04-2022, 02:14 PM
Hey Dassetts I said a while back the FMA should be over this and just n hour back that it should be given a 'speeding ticket' and put into halt. But i'm not clear on what you mean by the issue is a 2 for 1 then the rights are a 1 for 2? Can you clarify to me please?
The NZX made a mistake this morning with reference prices and hence it says the stock is down x% for the day when it's actually the largest daily gain in AIR.NZ history.
winner69
04-04-2022, 02:18 PM
Hey Dassetts I said a while back the FMA should be over this and just n hour back that it should be given a 'speeding ticket' and put into halt. But i'm not clear on what you mean by the issue is a 2 for 1 then the rights are a 1 for 2? Can you clarify to me please?
The NZX made a mistake this morning with reference prices and hence it says the stock is down x% for the day when it's actually the largest daily gain in AIR.NZ history.
The NZX man says -
The reference price for each AIRRG right has been updated to $0.49. The price adjustment has been made to reflect the correct ratio of 1 AIRRG right being exercised to 2 Air New Zealand Shares.
ordop
04-04-2022, 02:27 PM
Has the NZX just had their very own plane crash?!
keerti
04-04-2022, 02:31 PM
Offer Document
•$0.53 per New Share (Offer Price), representing:
−61.5% discount to the last traded price on NZX of $1.375 on 30 March 2022
−34.7% discount to Theoretical Ex-Rights Price (TERP)1of $0.81
My Calculation
Share Price on 30 March
$1.375
Rights Offer 1st share
$0.53
Rights Offer 2nd share
$0.53
Total
$2.44
Ex-Right theoretical Price
$0.81
That means 2 shares for 1 share held, what I am missing here.
winner69
04-04-2022, 02:39 PM
Offer Document
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My Calculation
Share Price on 30 March
$1.375
Rights Offer 1st share
$0.53
Rights Offer 2nd share
$0.53
Total
$2.44
Ex-Right theoretical Price
$0.81
That means 2 shares for 1 share held, what I am missing here.
Nothing -- you can get 2 new shares at 53 cents each for each 1 existing share you held
Your 1 existing share gives you 1 Right .... enabling you to buy 2 new shares at 53 cents according to NZX
Now you are totally confused eh
keerti
04-04-2022, 02:46 PM
The NZX man says -
The reference price for each AIRRG right has been updated to $0.49. The price adjustment has been made to reflect the correct ratio of 1 AIRRG right being exercised to 2 Air New Zealand Shares.
Hey Winner, Yes I am more confused with your previous post☺
winner69
04-04-2022, 02:50 PM
Hey Winner, Yes I am more confused with your previous post☺
I think there is total confusion out there
Biggest one day rise in history for AIR shares today they say
It's astonishing to see how irrational the market in this stock is. Setting aside today's bizarre action, it has been over-valued since, what, 2020. What other NZ stocks are trading at irrationally high or low values, or is AIR unique in this respect?
couta1
04-04-2022, 02:56 PM
It's astonishing to see how irrational the market in this stock is. Setting aside today's bizarre action, it has been over-valued since, what, 2020. What other NZ stocks are trading at irrationally high or low values, or is AIR unique in this respect? How many of the retail punters would realise what an irrational market is with this stock? hype blinds the vision in these situations, easy to fall into a trance like state (speaking from experience) A2 was going to $30 or so many including myself thought.
bassamrassam
04-04-2022, 03:01 PM
Wait and see what happens when the 53 cents shares will be issued and their owners want to cash out.
Dassets
04-04-2022, 03:19 PM
"Our vision is to promote and facilitate the development of fair, efficient and transparent financial markets."
One guess which organisation has that as its vision.
In Dassets' lexicon of financial markets(soon to be released) my definition of unfair, inefficient and opaque financial markets is going to be Air New Zealand's equity market trading on 4 April 2022.
Truly when AIR has its register dominated by the Shaz and it announces a highly dilutive issue this begs for what the FMA is meant to do by its Vision. But what do markets get? A truly bizarre day that shouldn't provide any confidence to anyone. What a joke! The market up 35% yet showing down 15%. A bizarre rights entitlement ratio that is transparent as a woman's logic(I expect a lash for that one) never done in the history of market and sure to cause more confusion. What a joke!
The public has been let down, professionals have been let down but every a*** clown this side of the black stump are doing a dance and wondering how their electric bike is going to take them from Sydney to Auckland. Wah wah wah. Vent over.
Popeye
04-04-2022, 03:30 PM
The theoretical price is per share ie. $2.44/3
Having said that, the $2.44 represents what you have paid to maintain the same shareholding. So in your example, $2.44 for the same shareholding in a company that is liquid for a bit longer due to a $1.2bn infusion of cash...
Bob50
04-04-2022, 03:52 PM
From the Sharesies Facebook homepage-posted 30/3 by Sharesies.
—-
For every 1 AIR share an eligible investor holds at 7 PM (NZST) on Tuesday 5 April 2022, they’ll receive the right to buy 2 AIR shares at a set price of $0.53 per share. The offer price of $0.53 per share is a 61.5% discount to the last traded price on the NZX of $1.375.
—-
By this to them-buying today at a cheaper price then Friday and still have the right to buy 2 more shares looks like a good deal.
When does dilution happen/ed?
I am holding none.
ordop
04-04-2022, 03:53 PM
Agree with Bassamrassam - the day is coming it may not be today or this Wednesday but it will come.
Dassets - I don't think Sharesies have been the one pushing this barrow. Yes they have been in there as you would expect from a retail firm but not the driver of the AIR price. Best you obtain broker data when it comes out in 2 days - it's anonymous until settlement date.
turnip
04-04-2022, 04:07 PM
From the Sharesies Facebook homepage-posted 30/3 by Sharesies.
—-
For every 1 AIR share an eligible investor holds at 7 PM (NZST) on Tuesday 5 April 2022, they’ll receive the right to buy 2 AIR shares at a set price of $0.53 per share. The offer price of $0.53 per share is a 61.5% discount to the last traded price on the NZX of $1.375.
—-
By this to them-buying today at a cheaper price then Friday and still have the right to buy 2 more shares looks like a good deal.
When does dilution happen/ed?
I am holding none.
Yep, from social media posts it is pretty clear that many do not understand how T+2 settlement works.
But if you actually go to place a an order for AIR shares in Sharesies, this message is displayed in the final confirmation page:
Air New Zealand has announced a rights offer for shareholders (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389769). For shares to qualify as part of the offer, the order needs to be filled before 2 April.
which makes it pretty clear that today is too late to be buying for the rights.
Dassets
04-04-2022, 04:08 PM
From the Sharesies Facebook homepage-posted 30/3 by Sharesies.
—-
For every 1 AIR share an eligible investor holds at 7 PM (NZST) on Tuesday 5 April 2022, they’ll receive the right to buy 2 AIR shares at a set price of $0.53 per share. The offer price of $0.53 per share is a 61.5% discount to the last traded price on the NZX of $1.375.
—-
By this to them-buying today at a cheaper price then Friday and still have the right to buy 2 more shares looks like a good deal.
When does dilution happen/ed?
I am holding none.
Uh oh, that advice is a problem. The reference to Tuesday is the record date. When I was a broker a number of times I had huge arguments with back office in similar circumstances. The record date is not the ex date. The last day to buy and get the rights was Friday. The record date allows for T+2 settlement so most if not all rights are issued to the right party. The rights are issued to the registered holder on 7pm 5 April. If the registered holder sold their shares on Friday and failed to deliver and hence registration wasn't effected then the broker will grab("pick-up") those rights when the registration occurs.
Same occurs on dividends etc. The Shaz that brought today just screwed up.
Dassets
04-04-2022, 04:13 PM
I will but I don't think the managers etc of the issue will have done this. There are too many repercussions, not only regulatory, but went this sort of stuff unwinds you can get bad price falls which discourage take up of the offer hence triggering the underwrite and maybe for size. They have to disclose that shortfall and finding out an underwriter owns 25% of a company is causes events I am sure you can guess.
Beagle
04-04-2022, 05:12 PM
Some might say this whole fiasco is nothing but an orchestrated litany of lies.
Arbroath
04-04-2022, 05:17 PM
Some might say this whole fiasco is nothing but an orchestrated litany of lies.
It has certainly been an embarrassment for NZ capital markets with the NZX screwing up this morning and many "investors" showing their lack of knowledge...
Remember Ben Graham...in the short run the market is a voting machine and in the long run a weighing machine
Beagle
04-04-2022, 05:20 PM
[QUOTE=Arbroath;950397]It has certainly been an embarrassment for NZ capital markets with the NZX screwing up this morning and many "investors" showing their lack of knowledge...
Remember Ben Graham...in the short run the market is a voting machine and in the long run a weighing machine
Anyone who doesn't know or believe that or ever forgets it has lost their way and has no compass.
Someone entered the wrong coordinates in NZX ?. Hapless investors subject to whiteout?. I think we've been here before..
Beagle
04-04-2022, 07:08 PM
Someone entered the wrong coordinates in NZX ?. Hapless investors subject to whiteout?. I think we've been here before..
And it didn't end well :eek2:
alokdhir
04-04-2022, 08:42 PM
How AIRRG started trading today ? When record date is 7pm 5th April and that means not yet even issued ??
NZX website showing one trade of 600,000 rights traded today @ 0.66 Cents ...even ASB Securities website confirms this trade and price
I thought one is not allowed to trade securities unless already credited in your registry account ? Or can brokers / Institutions do trades in advance ?
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/AIRRG
CMC sent me this
For renounceable rights issue for Air New Zealand, we do not allocate any rights to clients that are long or short, as they do not own the share but the CFD. We correct clients position's unit and entry price based on the adjustment factor for the corporate action, this is provided by Bloomberg and the factor is 0.612648.
The intention is that clients notional value prior to the corporate action will remain the same after this has occurred.
Beagle
04-04-2022, 08:53 PM
Do you feel cheated Peat ?
stoploss
04-04-2022, 08:58 PM
CMC sent me this
For renounceable rights issue for Air New Zealand, we do not allocate any rights to clients that are long or short, as they do not own the share but the CFD. We correct clients position's unit and entry price based on the adjustment factor for the corporate action, this is provided by Bloomberg and the factor is 0.612648.
The intention is that clients notional value prior to the corporate action will remain the same after this has occurred.
Not sure about that explanation . As for every share I was short I am now short 1.632 shares in my account .
Arbroath
04-04-2022, 09:36 PM
How AIRRG started trading today ? When record date is 7pm 5th April and that means not yet even issued ??
NZX website showing one trade of 600,000 rights traded today @ 0.66 Cents ...even ASB Securities website confirms this trade and price
I thought one is not allowed to trade securities unless already credited in your registry account ? Or can brokers / Institutions do trades in advance ?
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/AIRRG
A share trade settles 2 business days after it is traded. Friday April 1st was the last day you could buy AIR and receive the entitlement to the rights issue because your shares had to be registered 2 days later which is by 5pm tomorrow April 5th which is the record date for the rights entitlements.
So today the shares started trading ex-rights and AIRRG started trading because if you had bought or owned 1,000 AIR on Friday then you have the ownership of 1,000 AIRRG which gives you the right to buy another 2,000 shares at 53c each. If you sold your AIR today that trade won’t settle until Wednesday April 6th after the record date but you’d still own the AIRRG which is why they could start trading today.
Balance
05-04-2022, 07:48 AM
Not sure about that explanation . As for every share I was short I am now short 1.632 shares in my account .
Does that mean that you now have to cover 1.632 shares for say, the $1.26 share you shorted it on Friday?
Means at yesterday’s closing price of 90.5c, you now need to pay $1.47 (loss of 19c) to cover your short?
Air closed on Friday at $1.26 cum rights so at yeaterday’s closing price of 90.5c, the share is actually up 39.5c on my calculations - so CMC calculation is working in your favour.
Balance
05-04-2022, 08:41 AM
Further clarification to the clarification yesterday on AIRRG!
So the rights issue is effectively a 1:1 at $1.06! Not as deeply discounted as was made out to be the case in the first place!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390065
Dassets
05-04-2022, 08:44 AM
Does that mean that you now have to cover 1.632 shares for say, the $1.26 share you shorted it on Friday?
Means at yesterday’s closing price of 90.5c, you now need to pay $1.47 (loss of 19c) to cover your short?
Air closed on Friday at $1.26 cum rights so at yeaterday’s closing price of 90.5c, the share is actually up 39.5c on my calculations - so CMC calculation is working in your favour.
No it works against a short position. The share price was well above the theoretical ex price of 77.5. At one stage it was at 108 when the nzx said it was down. Sharesies kept buying thinking they were still getting the rights. 108 is almost a post covid high.
alokdhir
05-04-2022, 08:45 AM
A share trade settles 2 business days after it is traded. Friday April 1st was the last day you could buy AIR and receive the entitlement to the rights issue because your shares had to be registered 2 days later which is by 5pm tomorrow April 5th which is the record date for the rights entitlements.
So today the shares started trading ex-rights and AIRRG started trading because if you had bought or owned 1,000 AIR on Friday then you have the ownership of 1,000 AIRRG which gives you the right to buy another 2,000 shares at 53c each. If you sold your AIR today that trade won’t settle until Wednesday April 6th after the record date but you’d still own the AIRRG which is why they could start trading today.
My question was about legality of futures trade on NZX ...As per ASB Securities rules ...U r not allowed to sell shares unless physically or actually showing credited in your registry account ...not what will eventually come at a future date ...as they do cross check with registry share balance before sending order on market . So if thats allowed to others like u mentioned then ASB Securities clients are at a disadvantage as they cant do what others can !!! This was my query
Do you feel cheated Peat ?
by the outcome not by CMC , though stoploss's comment makes me wonder.
I've written this exercise off mentally.
It is too hard swimming against the tide here.... sometimes the market isnt rational but meh , Im over it.
I've got good work, paying well. I'm just slowly closing out all my speculative positions and increasing my longer term investments.
Just glad I stayed away from this. Didnt understand it or the value to be hand.
Will just wait for the dust to settle and see what the wash up is.
LaserEyeKiwi
05-04-2022, 08:55 AM
It's astonishing to see how irrational the market in this stock is. Setting aside today's bizarre action, it has been over-valued since, what, 2020. What other NZ stocks are trading at irrationally high or low values, or is AIR unique in this respect?
MCK (Millennium Copthorne) is still trading as if it’s hotel assets are worth zero. Those hotel assets were assigned an underlying market value of $567 million in the most recent annual report issued 2 weeks ago.
MCK current market cap of approx $390 million (MCK + MCKPA) is about the value of its non-hotel assets (66.3% stake in CDL, $96 million net cash on hand, Sydney apartments being sold down)
winner69
05-04-2022, 09:06 AM
Further clarification to the clarification yesterday on AIRRG!
So the rights issue is effectively a 1:1 at $1.06! Not as deeply discounted as was made out to be the case in the first place!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390065
Clear as mud now eh
Sideshow Bob
05-04-2022, 09:07 AM
It's astonishing to see how irrational the market in this stock is. Setting aside today's bizarre action, it has been over-valued since, what, 2020. What other NZ stocks are trading at irrationally high or low values, or is AIR unique in this respect?
Has this become more common/apparent since the advent of Sharsies, or other online platforms? Lots of smaller holders/orders, lots of trading but collectively owning a bigger slug of the company - Sharsies with AIR >6%, over 12% of traded not held by the majority owner?
Further clarification to the clarification yesterday on AIRRG!
So the rights issue is effectively a 1:1 at $1.06! Not as deeply discounted as was made out to be the case in the first place!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390065
This doesn't effect the dilution though, if I'm reading it right. Still going to be three times as many shares outstanding once this has settled, it's just that you only get one rights share which entitles you 2 cheap shares, rather getting two rights shares which each entitle you to 1 cheap share.
Same outcome.
JohnnyTheHorse
05-04-2022, 09:19 AM
This doesn't effect the dilution though, if I'm reading it right. Still going to be three times as many shares outstanding once this has settled, it's just that you only get one rights share which entitles you 2 cheap shares, rather getting two rights shares which each entitle you to 1 cheap share.
Same outcome.
Agree, that's my understanding of it. The TERP in the offer document was correct (80ish cents).
keerti
05-04-2022, 09:31 AM
Clear as mud now eh
You think!
• eligible AIR shareholders on the record date will receive one renounceable right for every one existing AIR ordinary share, which enables eligible holders of that right to subscribe for two new AIR ordinary shares
• each AIRRG right represents an entitlement to subscribe for two new AIR ordinary shares
Balance
05-04-2022, 09:34 AM
This doesn't effect the dilution though, if I'm reading it right. Still going to be three times as many shares outstanding once this has settled, it's just that you only get one rights share which entitles you 2 cheap shares, rather getting two rights shares which each entitle you to 1 cheap share.
Same outcome.
You are right of course about the dilution and outcome.
It is the first time in decades of investing that I have come across such a rights issue - as in one right for 2 shares!
Companies and underwriters structure capital raising to achieve certain outcomes :
1. The companies to get the capital they want and/or need at the cheapest cost and least dilution to existing shareholders,
2. Underwriters to get existing shareholders to take up the issue and simply collect their fees. If they end up with shares, they want the shares to be as cheap as possible so they can make a quick gain.
The way that this AIR capital raise is structured, it appears to be a compromise which implies to me that NZ government had a lot to say & influence about/over the CR.
Beagle
05-04-2022, 09:34 AM
You get one right for each share and that gives you the right to buy two shares at twice the price they're really worth, simple :D
winner69
05-04-2022, 09:42 AM
Those getting the new cheap shares from taking up the rights will be getting an even number of new shares ….that’s good
stoploss
05-04-2022, 09:42 AM
Does that mean that you now have to cover 1.632 shares for say, the $1.26 share you shorted it on Friday?
Means at yesterday’s closing price of 90.5c, you now need to pay $1.47 (loss of 19c) to cover your short?
Air closed on Friday at $1.26 cum rights so at yeaterday’s closing price of 90.5c, the share is actually up 39.5c on my calculations - so CMC calculation is working in your favour.
yes I have more shares short now , but not as many as I thought I would be .... They have adjusted the price of the execution down . So before as I was short at much higher levels account was showing a profit. Currently a loss..... ( It's not a big deal , shorting is always risky ) I'm happy to sit it out , as until people actually get the offer we won't know how many of these are going to be taken up, how many people will sell existing stock to fund the rights purchase etc ....
Being long CNB.ax is a much easier game.
Entrep
05-04-2022, 09:47 AM
You are right of course about the dilution and outcome.
It is the first time in decades of investing that I have come across such a rights issue - as in one right for 2 shares!
Companies and underwriters structure capital raising to achieve certain outcomes :
1. The companies to get the capital they want and/or need at the cheapest cost and least dilution to existing shareholders,
2. Underwriters to get existing shareholders to take up the issue and simply collect their fees. If they end up with shares, they want the shares to be as cheap as possible so they can make a quick gain.
The way that this AIR capital raise is structured, it appears to be a compromise which implies to me that NZ government had a lot to say & influence about/over the CR.
I recall the Sky raise was 3 cheapies for every 1 held, could be wrong
BlackPeter
05-04-2022, 10:02 AM
You get one right for each share and that gives you the right to buy two shares at twice the price they're really worth, simple :D
classic ... this made me chuckle :) :
Bjauck
05-04-2022, 10:16 AM
You get one right for each share and that gives you the right to buy two shares at twice the price they're really worth, simple :D
The government is getting the help a lot of private investors in bailing out Air NZ - a strategic NZ asset. I hope the private investors understand the risks. The government's investment is underwritten by all taxpayers, whereas private investors undertake it at their own risk.
Warren Buffet has had a mixed history with airline stocks too.
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/how-warren-buffetts-airline-stocks-have-performed-since-berkshire-hathaway-sold-them-134849843.html
Balance
05-04-2022, 11:40 AM
Short covering in progress?
Beagle
05-04-2022, 12:06 PM
This is like watching a circus or a bunch of teenagers playing musical chairs. Who's going to be left carrying the baby later this month ? Who cares they say, lets just party on and make heaps lol
Arbroath
05-04-2022, 12:34 PM
This is like watching a circus or a bunch of teenagers playing musical chairs. Who's going to be left carrying the baby later this month ? Who cares they say, lets just party on and make heaps lol
I think 2 things are going on here simultaneously:
1. There is an extreme amount of ignorance from newbies about how a rights issue works not helped by the NZX stuff-ups. In particular what the record date actually means for how you can trade etc.
2. The professionals have been sidelined over the past 2 years as the company was overpriced the whole time. Those that remain will bid for extra stock at 53c and it will be interesting to see the final take-up once all the newbies are asked for $1.06 for every old share they owned.
Dassets
05-04-2022, 12:44 PM
Note the mkt cap of the rights now $965m plus AIR at $1045 = $2010m. To make it apple with apples with old price divide value by nos of old shares, ie 2010/1122 = $1.79. Increase from Friday 179/127.5 = 40%.
Did I miss the takeover offer?
bassamrassam
05-04-2022, 12:58 PM
The AIRRG shares are offered around the 79 Cents. If you buy 10,000 of them, you can buy 20,000 shares of AIR after 26 April at 53 Cents each.
The AIRRG shares are offered around the 79 Cents. If you buy 10,000 of them, you can buy 20,000 shares of AIR after 26 April at 53 Cents each.
I thought it was pay 53 cents x 10,000
and get 20,000 shares of AIR
winner69
05-04-2022, 01:16 PM
The AIRRG shares are offered around the 79 Cents. If you buy 10,000 of them, you can buy 20,000 shares of AIR after 26 April at 53 Cents each.
so your 20,000 shares will have cost you 92.5 cents each ..... sounds a good deal
Dassets
05-04-2022, 01:28 PM
Can someone else cast their eyes over the listing rule below. It would seem to me that AIR released the notice on the 31st Thursday, went ex on Monday 4th. There is 1 business day between. Where are the 4 clear business days? That time is meant to be there to allow the rights issue to be understood.
Rule 4.17.6 For an application to NZX for Quotation of Rights under a Rights issue of Equity Securities, notice in a manner and form required NZX must be completed and supplied to NZX through MAP including any QRP notice(unless the QFP has already been released through MAP). If such Quotation is granted:
(a)such notice must be released through MAP no later than 5 Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue,
winner69
05-04-2022, 01:29 PM
It's not just these 'sharesies people'' and mum and dads' - instos and sophisticated investors piling in as well - Kiwi and Aussie ones as well
Bright things ahead for AIR - so many can't be wrong
Them Head shares may well be back up to circa $1.53 in no time, the way things are going.. ;)
Let's not worry about hard to understand fundamentals, lack of a dividend for yonks or the ship
belching out more red ink than all the South Island meatworks (No one really wants to
even understand or know about the extent of Red, when Uncla Grant is smiling at the job)
Beagle
05-04-2022, 01:46 PM
It's not just these 'sharesies people'' and mum and dads' - instos and sophisticated investors piling in as well - Kiwi and Aussie ones as well
Bright things ahead for AIR - so many can't be wrong
I see you have applied the "duck test" lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test#:~:text=If%20it%20looks%20like%20a%20duc k%2C%20swims%20like,something%20is%20not%20what%20 it%20appears%20to%20be.
Can someone else cast their eyes over the listing rule below. It would seem to me that AIR released the notice on the 31st Thursday, went ex on Monday 4th. There is 1 business day between. Where are the 4 clear business days? That time is meant to be there to allow the rights issue to be understood.
Rule 4.17.6 For an application to NZX for Quotation of Rights under a Rights issue of Equity Securities, notice in a manner and form required NZX must be completed and supplied to NZX through MAP including any QRP notice(unless the QFP has already been released through MAP). If such Quotation is granted:
(a)such notice must be released through MAP no later than 5 Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue,
Good point Dassets
Perhaps someone should fire a complaint into NZRegcom on this ? :)
AIR might be fast turning into an embarrassing circus for NZX ;)
Beagle
05-04-2022, 02:01 PM
Can someone else cast their eyes over the listing rule below. It would seem to me that AIR released the notice on the 31st Thursday, went ex on Monday 4th. There is 1 business day between. Where are the 4 clear business days? That time is meant to be there to allow the rights issue to be understood.
Rule 4.17.6 For an application to NZX for Quotation of Rights under a Rights issue of Equity Securities, notice in a manner and form required NZX must be completed and supplied to NZX through MAP including any QRP notice(unless the QFP has already been released through MAP). If such Quotation is granted:
(a)such notice must be released through MAP no later than 5 Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue,
A complete fiasco.
turnip
05-04-2022, 02:01 PM
Can someone else cast their eyes over the listing rule below. It would seem to me that AIR released the notice on the 31st Thursday, went ex on Monday 4th. There is 1 business day between. Where are the 4 clear business days? That time is meant to be there to allow the rights issue to be understood.
Rule 4.17.6 For an application to NZX for Quotation of Rights under a Rights issue of Equity Securities, notice in a manner and form required NZX must be completed and supplied to NZX through MAP including any QRP notice(unless the QFP has already been released through MAP). If such Quotation is granted:
(a)such notice must be released through MAP no later than 5 Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue,
They got a waiver: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389771
Beagle
05-04-2022, 02:02 PM
They got a waiver: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389771
Shouldn't have been grated for a cash issue of this size and complexity (for newcomers).
turnip
05-04-2022, 02:08 PM
Shouldn't have been grated for a cash issue of this size and complexity (for newcomers).
Agreed. Given everyone has known for ages that a raise was coming, why rush it at the last minute?
Oliver Mander
05-04-2022, 02:08 PM
Good point Dassets
Perhaps someone should fire a complaint into NZRegcom on this ? :)
AIR might be fast turning into an embarrassing circus for NZX ;)
Hi dassets and nztx...a quick line from your favourite Shareholders' Association :-)!
It looks like AIR were granted a waiver by NZ RegCo in relation to the 5 days.
Waivers from Listing Rules 4.17.6(a), 5.1 and 5.2 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389771)
See below:
Waiver from Listing Rule 4.17.6(a)Decision4. Subject to the conditions set out in paragraph 5 below, and on the basis that the information provided by AIR is complete and accurate in all material respects, NZX Regulation Limited (NZ RegCo) grants AIR a waiver from NZX Listing Rule (Rule) 4.17.6(a) to the extent this Rule would otherwise require the notice required under Rule 4.17.6(a) to be be released through MAP no later than five Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue.
Also, note that the 'record date' for the rights is actually tonight - but with T+2 settlement, in effect, was Friday Apr 1st. With the offer announcement on March 30th, they have essentially had 4 business days.
tzbang
05-04-2022, 03:16 PM
Apologies if this has already been shared.
"Here's the quickest way to achieve efficiency in our skies - stop bailing out the national carrier."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/128230454/flying-through-fog-the-shambles-of-air-new-zealand
ordop
05-04-2022, 03:26 PM
To Clarify on your post (19714) above Oliver,
The announcement was Wednesday 30th/March, ex date Monday 4th/April. So AIR have given '2' clear business days before the Ex date, nowhere near 5 business days. Yes they have a NZX Regco waiver but it seems a little conflicted here or at least that multiple parties have come up short.
Investment Bankers announcing a deal without clearly explaining mechanics to market participants, NZX mispricing the reference price from an Ex Rights perspective, NZX agreeing to a waiver which hasn't helped investors, FMA signing off on documentation that has ultimately confused multiple investors including market professionals.
Beagle
05-04-2022, 03:29 PM
Even the experts got it wrong https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/04/what-does-air-nz-recap-mean-for-me?utm_source=insights-enews-050422&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=what-does-air-nz-recap-mean-for-me&_cldee=FtTCgLx1tDaKJeRL-M-mdKT9itW6zM4rBl87mM-k4JAJmSet5WlYW_OWBHByo7mq&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-ad4da97548b74d90b3b97d935c70a122&esid=da315f21-fdae-ec11-a2d2-005056813337
Excerpt "Importantly, if you buy one of the rights on market, you don't yet own one of the new Air New Zealand shares. You'll have simply bought the right to buy one for $0.53".
Actually one right gives you the right to buy two shares at 53 cent price.
What a mutt's breakfast.
Disc: Beagles do not normally eat out of other mutts dog bowls.
winner69
05-04-2022, 03:35 PM
Even the experts got it wrong https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/04/what-does-air-nz-recap-mean-for-me?utm_source=insights-enews-050422&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=what-does-air-nz-recap-mean-for-me&_cldee=FtTCgLx1tDaKJeRL-M-mdKT9itW6zM4rBl87mM-k4JAJmSet5WlYW_OWBHByo7mq&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-ad4da97548b74d90b3b97d935c70a122&esid=da315f21-fdae-ec11-a2d2-005056813337
Excerpt "Importantly, if you buy one of the rights on market, you don't yet own one of the new Air New Zealand shares. You'll have simply bought the right to buy one for $0.53".
Actually one right gives you the right to buy two shares at 53 cent price...but who's counting eh ;)
so even craigs get it wrong and confuse punters ,,,, more misinformation last few days about AIRrights floating around than covid stuff
Two rights granted (each to One new 53c share) for each existing AIR share would have saved a lot of the shambles we see ;)
Thanks for look into this - Oliver :)
warthog
05-04-2022, 04:20 PM
Theses.
1. AIR will benefit from NZ opening up again beyond expectations.
2. Buying AIR comes with an entitlement to something for nothing (cheap shares).
3. AIR is well-run, state-backed and is a "masthead" investment.
The Hog's thesis.
1. Those who are not out of AIR already want to sell their bags. What better way than to talk it up, suggesting investors will get a free lunch.
Oliver Mander
05-04-2022, 05:39 PM
To Clarify on your post (19714) above Oliver,
The announcement was Wednesday 30th/March, ex date Monday 4th/April. So AIR have given '2' clear business days before the Ex date, nowhere near 5 business days. Yes they have a NZX Regco waiver but it seems a little conflicted here or at least that multiple parties have come up short.
Investment Bankers announcing a deal without clearly explaining mechanics to market participants, NZX mispricing the reference price from an Ex Rights perspective, NZX agreeing to a waiver which hasn't helped investors, FMA signing off on documentation that has ultimately confused multiple investors including market professionals.
Hi ordop...the record date is actually tonight (Apr 5th) at 7pm. But because it takes 2 days to settle a transaction, the 'effective' ex date was Friday Apr 1st. Not sure where you are getting Apr 4th from, although that was the date the rights started trading.
This from the Air NZ offer doc:
30 March 2022 - Announcement of the Offer
4 April 2022 - Rights trading opens Rights trading commences on the NZX Main Board.
7.00pm (NZST) / 5.00pm (AEST) on 5 April 2022 - Record Date The date for determining entitlements of Eligible Shareholders.
6 April 2022 - Opening Date for the Offer Offer Document and Acceptance Forms despatched to Eligible Shareholders.Rights Offer opens
I think all this highlights that the offer IS complex...we'd advocate for all investors (newbies or experienced) to read up on the offer fully before trading in either the rights or the shares.
NZSA is concerned at the confusion - the offer is well-outlined in the AIR material, but appears to have been interpreted differently by many (including the NZX). NZ RegCo, unusually, has been REALLY explicit about the theoretical prices for both the rights and the head share. I've been quoted in Stuff as well: NZX error results in trading halt on Air NZ rights, wrong price for rights and shares showing | Stuff.co.nz (https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stuff.co.nz%2Fbusiness%2Fin dustries%2F128257604%2Fnzx-error-results-in-trading-halt-on-air-nz-rights-wrong-price-for-rights-and-shares-showing&data=04%7C01%7CCEO%40nzshareholders.co.nz%7C22032a 6650ad4cf245a308da16b68628%7C233a466a8bfa4e9bb4488 c477a9c24d9%7C0%7C1%7C637847270449697470%7CUnknown %7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzI iLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=fN%2FhxQ6lxxyeZ0j0ye28ODCquz88gvbCp2jhl4tVrI c%3D&reserved=0)
"The confusion on the NZX this morning doesn't help matters in terms of conveying a clear, consistent and simple message about what the offer is worth for those investors," Mander said. And there's some good commentary in Business Desk from Craig's who are now saying that "We remain perplexed by the trading in AIR with the share price seemingly disconnected from fundamentals..."
Please - take the time to read the offer document carefully before trading in the shares or the rights. We're really concerned that there's a whole lot of investors (newbie or experienced alike) who may not fully understand it.
ordop
05-04-2022, 06:06 PM
Hi dassets and nztx...a quick line from your favourite Shareholders' Association :-)!
It looks like AIR were granted a waiver by NZ RegCo in relation to the 5 days.
Waivers from Listing Rules 4.17.6(a), 5.1 and 5.2 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389771)
See below:
Waiver from Listing Rule 4.17.6(a)Decision4. Subject to the conditions set out in paragraph 5 below, and on the basis that the information provided by AIR is complete and accurate in all material respects, NZX Regulation Limited (NZ RegCo) grants AIR a waiver from NZX Listing Rule (Rule) 4.17.6(a) to the extent this Rule would otherwise require the notice required under Rule 4.17.6(a) to be be released through MAP no later than five Business Days before the Ex Date for the Rights Issue.
Also, note that the 'record date' for the rights is actually tonight - but with T+2 settlement, in effect, was Friday Apr 1st. With the offer announcement on March 30th, they have essentially had 4 business days.
Hi Oliver, sorry but I will clarify what I meant by your original post. The waiver you refer to above states the announcement release should be no later than 5 business days before the Ex Date for the rights issue. You then mention they have essentially had 4 business days. This is Incorrect. AIR released the news only 2 business days (Thursday and Friday) before AIR went Ex rights on Monday morning. The first day of trading Ex Rights! This is the most important date (the Ex Date) as it tells the investor whether what they are buying is Cum Rights or Ex Rights. The registry looks after everything on the Record date and the brokers 'protect' anything unsettled.
For further clarification, have a chat with Blackcap who can give you a heads up on this.
But yes this issue has been a complete cluster. By the Way, I would get the STUFF article to change your quote about a pronounceable issue!
All the Best.
Maybe it's not just that it's complex, but that 2-for-1 is too simple. If they had made it, say, 7-for-4, the dopes at NZX and non-comprehending investors would have realised they didn't fully understand it.
Oliver Mander
05-04-2022, 06:58 PM
Ex vs record date...got it. On that score, quite correct ordop. And yes, the ex date is indeed Apr 4th when the rights trading began (I read ex for record).
The last thing I want to do is add to the confusion! As you say, though, doesn't change the underlying concern that it has confused many people.
Theses.
1. AIR will benefit from NZ opening up again beyond expectations.
2. Buying AIR comes with an entitlement to something for nothing (cheap shares).
3. AIR is well-run, state-backed and is a "masthead" investment.
The Hog's thesis.
1. Those who are not out of AIR already want to sell their bags. What better way than to talk it up, suggesting investors will get a free lunch.
Hog - There's one more class - those sitting in on very small parcels in the Spectator seats ;)
Sideshow Bob
05-04-2022, 10:12 PM
Average trade today was 1,009 shares.
Plenty of small investors trading, average value $950.
Dassets
05-04-2022, 11:32 PM
Sorry been tied up. They had waivers, a lot of them, including the timeline.
The rationale is disclosed. However it is clear the rational failed to consider factors that should have been addressed such as magnitude, relative complexity and an inexperienced shareholder base. I think that will be the approach I will be taking , that the waivers esp re time lines should never have been given.
EDIT Just saw the reference to waivers above. But reiterate one of the reasons for the gap is to let people sort everything out and that clearly didn't happen. Basically AIR didn't have its arguments put forward challenged. The rules were merely pushed aside to suit them. The main reason they were scared about a lock down
winner69
06-04-2022, 08:38 AM
AIR announces opening of Rights Issue
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390134
bassamrassam
06-04-2022, 08:48 AM
Yes about the same current price of AIR shares :). I assume both of AIR and AIRRG prices will be traded proportionally the same.
Oliver Mander
06-04-2022, 09:39 AM
Good 'explainer' and more commentary on the complexity from Stuff.
Air New Zealand's rights issue opens on Wednesday. What do shareholders need to do? | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128268734/air-new-zealands-rights-issue-opens-on-wednesday-what-do-shareholders-need-to-do)
Beagle
06-04-2022, 09:45 AM
Good 'explainer' and more commentary on the complexity from Stuff.
Air New Zealand's rights issue opens on Wednesday. What do shareholders need to do? | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128268734/air-new-zealands-rights-issue-opens-on-wednesday-what-do-shareholders-need-to-do)
Good work mate.
Dassets
06-04-2022, 09:51 AM
Good 'explainer' and more commentary on the complexity from Stuff.
Air New Zealand's rights issue opens on Wednesday. What do shareholders need to do? | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128268734/air-new-zealands-rights-issue-opens-on-wednesday-what-do-shareholders-need-to-do)
Except for getting the reference price for AIRRG wrong. Just goes how to show what a shambles this is.
Oliver if you are going to raise this with FMA or NZX I can provide some thoughts that might be relevant. I have used to do a lot with corporate actions doing one thing or another.
Arbroath
06-04-2022, 10:16 AM
AIR announces opening of Rights Issue
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390134
Looks like some reality starting to set in to the situation.
Good 'explainer' and more commentary on the complexity from Stuff.
Air New Zealand's rights issue opens on Wednesday. What do shareholders need to do? | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128268734/air-new-zealands-rights-issue-opens-on-wednesday-what-do-shareholders-need-to-do)
It's academic, but the article is wrong that, "on Monday the reference price for Air New Zealand shares was 77.5c, as set by the airline in association with its bankers."
77.5c is a theoretical calculation that anyone could do. It was ultimately based on the last pre-rights trading price of $1.265 at 5pm Friday. It was also based on the terms of the offer, which was what the airline and its bankers did decide, but had been known for 2 days. Ultimately, the market decided on $1.265, which determined the 77.5c, not the airline.
JohnnyTheHorse
06-04-2022, 10:26 AM
Sharesies users account for 2.5million shares traded yesterday (buy and sell). Who knows how many the day before at even higher prices. Looks like reality is really setting in and funds are taking the chance to sell down at these elevated prices. Will be interesting to see how if Sharesies users become net sellers as the price starts dropping?
The rights are leading the ords down currently. I wonder if any holders are putting on risk-free arbitrages by selling ords and buying rights.
Oliver Mander
06-04-2022, 10:37 AM
Agree with the comments on the reference price - difficult for journos to understand down the phone sometimes. I said that the77.5 was the TERP as issued by NZX on Monday morning.
But in general, I think John Anthony's done a good job trying to make it as understandable as possible.
stoploss
06-04-2022, 10:40 AM
The rights are leading the ords down currently. I wonder if any holders are putting on risk-free arbitrages by selling ords and buying rights.
Must be a big payday for some fund managers , looks like money for old rope for those able to arb this.
... difficult for journos to understand down the phone sometimes. ...
But in general, I think John Anthony's done a good job trying to make it as understandable as possible.
Fair enough. BusinessDesk journos have been making errors too.
ordop
06-04-2022, 11:10 AM
Funnily enough, even though AIR is currently 0.84 and AIRRG is 0.50 (yes there is an arb there) the aggregated price of $1.34 is still higher than the last traded cum price from Friday at $1.265. All the action at this point in time today is just wiping the ridiculous price action of Monday and Tuesday.
Arbroath
06-04-2022, 11:26 AM
Agree with the comments on the reference price - difficult for journos to understand down the phone sometimes. I said that the77.5 was the TERP as issued by NZX on Monday morning.
But in general, I think John Anthony's done a good job trying to make it as understandable as possible.
Its actually all very simple and just highlights the appalling lack of financial literacy in New Zealand.
The only criticism I'd have is that one share should've just equalled 2 rights with each right to buy one more share. That has been the structure of pretty much every major rights issue in NZ for decades.
Sky TV 2.83:1, Fletcher Forests 2:1, Nuplex I think was 3:1
Beagle
06-04-2022, 11:49 AM
Its actually all very simple and just highlights the appalling lack of financial literacy in New Zealand.
The only criticism I'd have is that one share should've just equalled 2 rights with each right to buy one more share. That has been the structure of pretty much every major rights issue in NZ for decades.
Sky TV 2.83:1, Fletcher Forests 2:1, Nuplex I think was 3:1
Well said.
Sideshow Bob
06-04-2022, 01:17 PM
Brace, brace.....
Heads down $0.10 to $0.85 and rights down 24c to 51c.
Buy the rights and the 2 shares, and means 77.5cps.
SCOTTY
06-04-2022, 01:48 PM
Brace, brace.....
Heads down $0.10 to $0.85 and rights down 24c to 51c.
Buy the rights and the 2 shares, and means 77.5cps.
Yes SB. Easy arbitrage - sell the heads and buy the rights = free bonus issue. :)
Personally AIR not for me at any price.
stoploss
06-04-2022, 02:09 PM
Brace, brace.....
Heads down $0.10 to $0.85 and rights down 24c to 51c.
Buy the rights and the 2 shares, and means 77.5cps.
How Bizarre
Beagle
06-04-2022, 02:17 PM
Obvious arbitrage opportunity for those that believe the shares are worth 77.5 cps. Bit like saying ARV are worth $2.60. Just fantasy land stuff...
alokdhir
06-04-2022, 03:06 PM
U can sell the AIR thru CFD and buy the rights ...45 cents + 106 = 151 for 2 shares of AIR ...selling at 83 cents ...cool 10% arbitrage
Obvious arbitrage opportunity for those that believe the shares are worth 77.5 cps. Bit like saying ARV are worth $2.60. Just fantasy land stuff...
Yes that's exactly it .. looks like a bit of horse trading in AIR rights taking place on Sharesies too :)
Do I see upside with this one once the dust clears or heavy storm clouds on the horizon for years to come ? :)
NZX looks down as a whole today.. lots of Red .. a few more days of the same will do what for AIR ?
Perhaps a further reduction in part or whole as today, as reality sinks in out there on how
much or little has changed to the nature of the beast ? ;)
No matter how much the thing is painted up, bound to be lots of further AIR Red and Cash
burn going forward IMO ..
As for re-establishing former routes, service and capacity to former levels - what will that require and
where's it coming from ? ;)
alokdhir
06-04-2022, 04:40 PM
By giving rights at very attractive price of 53 Cents will make sure AIR issue will be oversubscribed ...so propping efforts of underwriters will be minimal ...just lip service and good press will do
By giving rights at very attractive price of 53 Cents will make sure AIR issue will be oversubscribed ...so propping efforts of underwriters will be minimal ...just lip service and good press will do
Might be the case my friend - but what are you buying & for what purposes ?
Forget dividend income for years - the thing is it's going to be coughing & spluttering away
for some time into the future.
For some - 'I own a part of AIR & got them dirt cheap" might be enough .. but how long until
the Dirt Cheap buy cost starts looking like a bargain buy worth the journey ? ;)
Sooner or later an inevitable Share Consolidation is bound to wipe the smiles off many faces.
If that didn't happen what would a potential small dividend per share look like on
the enlarged capital needed to bail AIR out of today's tight spot ? ;)
5-10 year wait anyone ? ;)
More Virus, different virus or worse strains possible ?
More global turbulence ?
Lots of risks in Joe Retail Investors camp and they're not small - all with potential to put the Retail Investor out of any money ahead well into the Red .. or further out the back door for those with higher ingoing cost :)
Is Joe Retail Investor being taken for a long potentially hazardous ride that they didn't realise ? ;)
Of course indirectly the 51% major holder is really in charge of navigating where the broomstick is headed
- make no mistake about that ;)
And a final point -- I guess everyone here will be eagerly waiting in the queue to jump on the next
AIR flights to go all over the place again, as if nothing has just happened .. or maybe not ? ;)
Look no further than Retailers in some of our cities to see how they're currently faring,
confronted with a perfect storm of a multitude of simultaneous hindrances & disruptions .. :)
Will AIR be any different or kneecapped by the same perfect storm for a long time ahead ?
I'm picking that both AIR & Retail will have some time going forwards before customers
feel even slightly comfortable returning to a shadow of what was before Covid.. :)
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