AIR - Air NZ.

[klid]

When they run out of money again next I wonder what the novel ingenious plan will be.

[Waltzing]

"novel ingenious plan will be"

another cap raise...

if it works once....

[Beagle]

We're going to revive and thrive and we really mean it this time. Marketing punch line for the next capital raise.

[Ggcc]

We're going to revive and thrive and we really mean it this time. Marketing punch line for the next capital raise.
Grant Robertson airways has a great ring to it.

[warthog]

"novel ingenious plan will be"

another cap raise...

if it works once....

If it worked twice…

[nztx]

Grant Robertson airways has a great ring to it.


Will it still fly backwards as well as it does now after 2023 ? ;)

[Waltzing]

"If it worked twice…"

stand corrected!!

yes !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Might be the case my friend - but what are you buying & for what purposes ?

Forget dividend income for years - the thing is it's going to be coughing & spluttering away
for some time into the future.

For some - 'I own a part of AIR & got them dirt cheap" might be enough .. but how long until
the Dirt Cheap buy cost starts looking like a bargain buy worth the journey ? ;)

Sooner or later an inevitable Share Consolidation is bound to wipe the smiles off many faces.
If that didn't happen what would a potential small dividend per share look like on
the enlarged capital needed to bail AIR out of today's tight spot ? ;)

5-10 year wait anyone ? ;)

More Virus, different virus or worse strains possible ?

More global turbulence ?

Lots of risks in Joe Retail Investors camp and they're not small - all with potential to put the Retail Investor out of any money ahead well into the Red .. or further out the back door for those with higher ingoing cost :)

Is Joe Retail Investor being taken for a long potentially hazardous ride that they didn't realise ? ;)

Of course indirectly the 51% major holder is really in charge of navigating where the broomstick is headed
- make no mistake about that ;)

And a final point -- I guess everyone here will be eagerly waiting in the queue to jump on the next
AIR flights to go all over the place again, as if nothing has just happened .. or maybe not ? ;)

Look no further than Retailers in some of our cities to see how they're currently faring,
confronted with a perfect storm of a multitude of simultaneous hindrances & disruptions .. :)

Will AIR be any different or kneecapped by the same perfect storm for a long time ahead ?

I'm picking that both AIR & Retail will have some time going forwards before customers
feel even slightly comfortable returning to a shadow of what was before Covid.. :)

agree with the negative takes on AirNZ - but hard disagree on retail, which even in the midst of Omicron is performing above pre-pandemic 2019 levels of trade. AirNZ and retail stocks are nothing alike.

[Beagle]

agree with the negative takes on AirNZ - but hard disagree on retail, which even in the midst of Omicron is performing above pre-pandemic 2019 levels of trade. AirNZ and retail stocks are nothing alike.

I agree 100% with that, especially consumer staples retail like WHS.

[BlackPeter]

deleted - I should not reply to old posts without prior checking whether others have not already done that ...

[nztx]

When they run out of money again next I wonder what the novel ingenious plan will be.


Just a matter of time to see how many of the punters have run shy on dough too IMO ;)

[Maxtrade]

By giving rights at very attractive price of 53 Cents will make sure AIR issue will be oversubscribed ...so propping efforts of underwriters will be minimal ...just lip service and good press will do

Post Cap Raise a truck load of shares will hit the market for sale, those that are placing their bets that their cost averaged price, inclusive of the 2 shares at 0.53, will be lower than where the market stabilises and SP settles in at. Unfortunately some who are counting on a quick profit might be rudely awakened and find out their coast average price is significantly higher than where SP stabilises. In turn a heck load of shares sitting to be offloaded with traders who bet the wrong way cutting their losses, hitting their stop loss, and the vicious cycle of post CR pulling SP down to potentially even lower than the offer 0.53. We have seen it many times before with large Cap Raises. Just take a look how they have played out with some of the recent ones. HUGE gamble those that are counting on SP rallying post CR. Regardless on if oversubscribed or not, there will be a large percentage of people looking for an SP post Cap of 0.8 plus and hoping to sell out making a quick 10-20% profit off their cost average price. For that to work their cost average AIR shares would need to be no more than 0.60c. There will be a lot of investors who's cost average price is nothing like $0.60. If their cost average price is more like 0.7- 0.8 (for those that were buying in AIR last week at 1.15 or higher), even factoring in the 2 shares @ 0.53 it doesn't help. With the cost average sitting at for example 0.75 then to make their 10-20% the SP would need to stabilise at 0.90 Which I think all can agree is not going to happen. Once the reality of this settles in many will realise their bets turned bad and they hold 3 times the amount of AIR shares which wouldn't have provided any quick profit. Shares will flood onto market trying to minimise losses or break even at best in turn putting further downwards pressure on the SP.

SP has a long way to fall yet. Wont reach it's lows until post Cap Raise once offload of shares commences. Possibly for a lucky few at a small gain if somehow they have a low enough Cost Average, but for most very quickly tides will turn on the sell off, buyers will dry up due to the fact most would have already purchased in the massive Cap Raise. Sell volumes will swell onto market depth. SP will only have one direction to head.

And all said above isn't even factoring in the difficulties the company itself faces. Combined with Zero dividends. How on earth is that looked at as a stable or sound investment.

It was a smart way to 'extort' money out of exisiting share holders (trying to minimise losses due to dilution) and encourage new unsavy investors to jump in and take 'advantage of the low CR offer. The positive is at least it gives our National Airline some breathing room and dig its way out of their current debt. However they aren't a charity! Not a wise investment move, or trading play even with share price allocation of 0.53.

Once people see the SP stall post Cap Raise after an initial short minor rally off the back of an over-prescribed 0.53 offer, volumes will flood onto the sell side and SP will downtrend. Analysts suggesting 0.6- 0.64. In reality history would suggest we will actually see a downtrend in SP back to more like around the SP offer of 0.53. Let's check in and see how accurate this post is to follow, 1 month post CR allocation. Anyone keen to put forth their target SP?

0.51- 0.56

[nztx]

It's going to be interesting to see what the post Cap Raising Party auction of the plates left over
on the AIR table comes in at - any guesses ?

Given AIR rights aren't being traded on ASX - the decisions there must be to take up or not :)

[Pitch Group]

I reckon 0.63-0.65 Fingers crossed

[nztx]

Post Cap Raise a truck load of shares will hit the market for sale, those that are placing their bets that their cost averaged price, inclusive of the 2 shares at 0.53, will be lower than where the market stabilises and SP settles in at. Unfortunately some who are counting on a quick profit might be rudely awakened and find out their coast average price is significantly higher than where SP stabilises. In turn a heck load of shares sitting to be offloaded with traders who bet the wrong way cutting their losses, hitting their stop loss, and the vicious cycle of post CR pulling SP down to potentially even lower than the offer 0.53. We have seen it many times before with large Cap Raises. Just take a look how they have played out with some of the recent ones. HUGE gamble those that are counting on SP rallying post CR. Regardless on if oversubscribed or not, there will be a large percentage of people looking for an SP post Cap of 0.8 plus and hoping to sell out making a quick 10-20% profit off their cost average price. For that to work their cost average AIR shares would need to be no more than 0.60c. There will be a lot of investors who's cost average price is nothing like $0.60. If their cost average price is more like 0.7- 0.8 (for those that were buying in AIR last week at 1.15 or higher), even factoring in the 2 shares @ 0.53 it doesn't help. With the cost average sitting at for example 0.75 then to make their 10-20% the SP would need to stabilise at 0.90 Which I think all can agree is not going to happen. Once the reality of this settles in many will realise their bets turned bad and they hold 3 times the amount of AIR shares which wouldn't have provided any quick profit. Shares will flood onto market trying to minimise losses or break even at best in turn putting further downwards pressure on the SP.

SP has a long way to fall yet. Wont reach it's lows until post Cap Raise once offload of shares commences. Possibly for a lucky few at a small gain if somehow they have a low enough Cost Average, but for most very quickly tides will turn on the sell off, buyers will dry up due to the fact most would have already purchased in the massive Cap Raise. Sell volumes will swell onto market depth. SP will only have one direction to head.

And all said above isn't even factoring in the difficulties the company itself faces. Combined with Zero dividends. How on earth is that looked at as a stable or sound investment.

It was a smart way to 'extort' money out of exisiting share holders (trying to minimise losses due to dilution) and encourage new unsavy investors to jump in and take 'advantage of the low CR offer. The positive is at least it gives our National Airline some breathing room and dig its way out of their current debt. However they aren't a charity! Not a wise investment move, or trading play even with share price allocation of 0.53.

Once people see the SP stall post Cap Raise after an initial short minor rally off the back of an over-prescribed 0.53 offer, volumes will flood onto the sell side and SP will downtrend. Analysts suggesting 0.6- 0.64. In reality history would suggest we will actually see a downtrend in SP back to more like around the SP offer of 0.53. Let's check in and see how accurate this post is to follow, 1 month post CR allocation. Anyone keen to put forth their target SP?

0.51- 0.56



Yep .. I would think not far off the mark - look at recent NZX & ARV Cap Raises & look what happened after

AIR is considerably larger with likely huge quantities more rights / shares all looking for
a home.

We may even see a sub 50c AIR SP briefly - who knows :)

[Maxtrade]

Yep .. I would think not far off the mark - look at recent NZX & ARV Cap Raises & look what happened after

AIR is considerably larger with likely huge quantities more rights / shares all looking for
a home.

We may even see a sub 50c AIR SP briefly - who knows :)

Agree. RAD, PEB same trend off Cap Raise. Until a company can fundamentally show something solid and positive solid off a large Cap Raise the SP can only decline to the CR offer or lower. AIR will be no different. Quite amazing how many punters are out there that don't seem to bother doing their homework.

[flyer]

I sold out of AIR on 7 Feb 20 for $2.835. Since then I have watched it go down but it stayed over $1 which amazed me as with no flying, no income etc the price should of been under $1 with even a 40-50c price in the last 2 years. The patriotism this company has is huge and there is nothing more proud of seeing the big Tail Koru when you walk into an overseas terminal. We all knew a CR was coming so at what price should Air be now. At one AIRGA (0.48c) you can buy 2 x shares at 53c = $1.54/2 so those 2 shares will cost me $0.77 compared to todays market price of 84c. But I think the Rights will sell off and go lower as entitled holders who may not want to buy into the new shares sell off and the rights price could drop a lot closer to ex date. So if rights dropped to 10c plus your $1.06 = 58c per share which is good discount vs todays market price. However, the main shareprice could also fall to its take up offer price of 53c.
So what will be the best action to take. For me, I am going to wait until after CR date and see what the price is then which I think will be somewhere 53-58c. If it then drifts down into the 40's then I will look to take a new long term stake.

[BlackPeter]

I sold out of AIR on 7 Feb 20 for $2.835. Since then I have watched it go down but it stayed over $1 which amazed me as with no flying, no income etc the price should of been under $1 with even a 40-50c price in the last 2 years. The patriotism this company has is huge and there is nothing more proud of seeing the big Tail Koru when you walk into an overseas terminal. We all knew a CR was coming so at what price should Air be now. At one AIRGA (0.48c) you can buy 2 x shares at 53c = $1.54/2 so those 2 shares will cost me $0.77 compared to todays market price of 84c. But I think the Rights will sell off and go lower as entitled holders who may not want to buy into the new shares sell off and the rights price could drop a lot closer to ex date. So if rights dropped to 10c plus your $1.06 = 58c per share which is good discount vs todays market price. However, the main shareprice could also fall to its take up offer price of 53c.
So what will be the best action to take. For me, I am going to wait until after CR date and see what the price is then which I think will be somewhere 53-58c. If it then drifts down into the 40's then I will look to take a new long term stake.

Predicting future share price bottoms is like predicting your future based on a newspaper horoscope. Sometimes entertaining, however there is no correlation at all between prediction and outcome.

Sure - the AIR shares might bottom out around the magic 53 cents, but then - they might not. The odds are clearly stacked against this option.

They might bottom out around half of that ... but hey - who knows. I don't think it is sensible to set in the current situation any buy in prices ... just wait for the game to play out and buy if and when the technical indicators start to look friendlier. I am thinking something like confirmed break through the MA100 plus supporting fundamentals (which look terrible at current).

At this stage we don't even know, whether this is the last CR before the recovery ...

So many other opportunities to park ones money ...

[winner69]

Radius Healthcare shares were about 170 once. Drifted down and settled around 90/100 mark for a period. Radius needed some cash so had a capital raise with new shares at 52 .... punters scrambled to get their hands on them .... cheap, huge discount etc etc

Share price went down to the 60s and then the 50s and then the 40s and now in the 30s heading to the 20s

Maybe AIR share price will head down to 60's and then the 50's and then the 40s and then the 30's and maybe the 20s as well

last time I sold AIR shares I got $3.27 for them

[Waltzing]

"maybe the 20s as well"

NAH the SHAZ will make sure of that... maybe go without bread that week... ARHH KFC ...

[Dassets]

AIRRH and then AIRRI

Edit in response to earlier question wondering what air plan is once they run out of money again

[Waltzing]

"air plan "

since dassets seems to have some knowledge of planes and things?

what are AIR's options....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dassault_Mirage_III#Origins

or


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde


had a terrible accident ...

[Arbroath]

A couple of questions for holders to consider....

1. What month, and year, will AIR raise equity? and
2. How much and at what price?

My guesses are March 2022 and $1b+ at 50 cents a share...right now I'd say they are basically insolvent without the Govt so as a taxpayer I'll be grumpy if the capital raise does not result in significant dilution of existing holders. Govt should go back to 80%+ and then rehabilitate the business over 3-5 years before reducing their stake again and making a solid gain for taxpayers.

I'll claim this as a victory...from August '21

[Dassets]

AIR did that quick flash sale the other day which I thought was just so they can say REVIVE. But I now notice some(maybe across more fares but don't have the desire to burn time) of the business class fares have remained at half of what other airlines are charging for similar routes. So you can still get AKL to LAX business for circa $6T. Here is one very scary possible reason. They get the cash for that sale now. They have learnt to use cash from forward sales in the present. They don't get the cash issue money for a little more than a month, when the new shares are issued. If I was a betting man what odds would I put on these sales are at these discounted levels because they are desperate for the cash right now.

[winner69]

AIR did that quick flash sale the other day which I thought was just so they can say REVIVE. But I now notice some(maybe across more fares but don't have the desire to burn time) of the business class fares have remained at half of what other airlines are charging for similar routes. So you can still get AKL to LAX business for circa $6T. Here is one very scary possible reason. They get the cash for that sale now. They have learnt to use cash from forward sales in the present. They don't get the cash issue money for a little more than a month, when the new shares are issued. If I was a betting man what odds would I put on these sales are at these discounted levels because they are desperate for the cash right now.

That's pretty sneaky eh

[Balance]

AIR did that quick flash sale the other day which I thought was just so they can say REVIVE. But I now notice some(maybe across more fares but don't have the desire to burn time) of the business class fares have remained at half of what other airlines are charging for similar routes. So you can still get AKL to LAX business for circa $6T. Here is one very scary possible reason. They get the cash for that sale now. They have learnt to use cash from forward sales in the present. They don't get the cash issue money for a little more than a month, when the new shares are issued. If I was a betting man what odds would I put on these sales are at these discounted levels because they are desperate for the cash right now.

Don’t think so.

They have not fully drawn down the government’s loan facility yet.

• Liquidity of $1.4 billion as at 23 February 2022, made up of approximately $170 million of cash and $1.24 billion of available funds under the remaining Crown Facility and Redeemable Shares

[Dassets]

Don’t think so.

They have not fully drawn down the government’s loan facility yet.

• Liquidity of $1.4 billion as at 23 February 2022, made up of approximately $170 million of cash and $1.24 billion of available funds under the remaining Crown Facility and Redeemable Shares

Good point Balance. However so sure on the status of those agreements and access to cash. I would have said 100% that the new agreements that form the capital raise will have replaced those older ones. There will be provisions on the switch-over but who knows what those are. What are the other reason you sell product for 50% of your competitors?

Plus since then it had to pay for its PAYE final catch up payment, so that is the cash gone. Then the fuel price has gone up what?

[nztx]

"maybe the 20s as well"

NAH the SHAZ will make sure of that... maybe go without bread that week... ARHH KFC ...


A good dose of the current 'watch the Share price dive' is bound to ensure no laxatives are needed ;)

A major instalment of red ink delivered with more for the taking or the ever distant optimism of she'll bounce back
to be a multibagger in 15 years time - wonder which they'll opt in for ? ;)

[Waltzing]

"wonder which they'll opt in for ?"

they will go all in... nothing to lose!! Bargain!!!

well china is now closed .. plus some other country's and the middle east a bit if 'e and no one really wanting to cruise the Baltic and i usually do ! Invites for bears coming on upon return (not a bear drinker but this time will be)...

You would be surprised at the number of Aussie that used to cruise europe every year... LOTS!

Then there were the Kiwis cruising the Greek Islands..

It all adds up and it wont be adding up to quite the same numbers this time around.

Whole population of China now out of the travel business.. all locked up with MOA'S new republished works to study over the rice bowls...

Dont see AIR line profits returning to Pre C levels any year soon even if the air lines say other wise.

[mikelee]

I looked up AKL-LAX return business class couple month ago and it was selling for about $11,600!

[Waltzing]

check out bus class via AKL - CPH...emirates is 10500 or there abouts ,

not bad really, 777

would rather go AIR BUS

AIR NZ business 10000 ODD return AKL CPH via LAX, return TOKYO.

787 , then AIR BUS 350 - 900 , 26 hours... remember those!!!!

[winner69]

Maybe it'll become NAC again like the good old days back in 1967 - this day in 1967 the maiden flight of this 737

[nztx]

"wonder which they'll opt in for ?"

they will go all in... nothing to lose!! Bargain!!!

well china is now closed .. plus some other country's and the middle east a bit if 'e and no one really wanting to cruise the Baltic and i usually do ! Invites for bears coming on upon return (not a bear drinker but this time will be)...

You would be surprised at the number of Aussie that used to cruise europe every year... LOTS!

Then there were the Kiwis cruising the Greek Islands..

It all adds up and it wont be adding up to quite the same numbers this time around.

Whole population of China now out of the travel business.. all locked up with MOA'S new republished works to study over the rice bowls...

Dont see AIR line profits returning to Pre C levels any year soon even if the air lines say other wise.


IMO .. it will likely be 10 years before things finally show signs of any great improve at least ..

Call Covid with likely future variants + further waves at least a 5 year period, then lingering
on in some regions - such as some of the third world countries

that's a pretty long time for AIR's Board to be spinning fuzzies to investors about a little
light they thought the could see in the distance ;)

[percy]

I had a most enjoyable day yesterday attending "The Skope Classic" at Mike Pero Motorsport Park,[Ruapuna ].
Was surprised at the very large number of Air NZ planes flying overhead on their approach to ChCh Airport.Seemed to be nearly back to Normal.
Only one Jet Star, and no international planes.Saw three planes' jet stream at above 30,000 ft.Must have been flying to Queenstown.

[Poolboy]

My grandad told me a popular saying during the war was to look upwards at a plane and say "Don't worry, it's one of ours."

Well it seems like "One of ours" is landing at Wellington Airport every 10 minutes. Busy = good.

[Maxtrade]

For how much longer do people think AIR can hold on in the 0.80 range?

[Recaster]

IMO .. it will likely be 10 years before things finally show signs of any great improve at least ..

Call Covid with likely future variants + further waves at least a 5 year period, then lingering
on in some regions - such as some of the third world countries

that's a pretty long time for AIR's Board to be spinning fuzzies to investors about a little
light they thought the could see in the distance ;)

Yes, 10 years is normally the terminal year for stock valuations. Dividends and profits after that are discounted away to nearly nothing.

AIR another malinvestment which is overpriced IMHO.

[winner69]

There was an ad on the radio this morning …… AIR recapitalisation ends soon etc etc ……don’t think it said hurry up don’t miss out for a chance to invest in this iconic company but the tone was a bit like that.

[Recaster]

There was an ad on the radio this morning …… AIR recapitalisation ends soon etc etc ……don’t think it said hurry up don’t miss out for a chance to invest in this iconic company but the tone was a bit like that.

Yes, they'll have to market it super hard. And in a way that doesn't draw too much attention to the financial statements.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes, they'll have to market it super hard. And in a way that doesn't draw too much attention to the financial statements.

Don't worry about the financial statements..........."Look there is a plane in the sky!! We're putting on heaps more flights!"

[causecelebre]

The Sharesies FB page has been an utter blitz of Air NZ offer posts. Most of them by Sharesies. They have done live chats with Foran, etc. The marketing is real

[newtrader]

The Sharesies FB page has been an utter blitz of Air NZ offer posts. Most of them by Sharesies. They have done live chats with Foran, etc. The marketing is real

Marketing is very real, Sharesies have disclosed they are being paid by Air NZ to promote this offer

[peat]

Marketing is very real, Sharesies have disclosed they are being paid by Air NZ to promote this offer
wow that’s interesting
further costs to our flagship airline
i bet the underwriting fees are good too

[Dassets]

wow that’s interesting
further costs to our flagship airline
i bet the underwriting fees are good too
Depending on how the govt position has been handled ie get a underwrite fee for own stock, and bear in mind the govt will have had its own advisors, total direct fees, I guess, say $50m. Also note that the govt is selling circa 30m of its own rights. It is moving from 51.91% to 51% after the offer which is fully underwritten. The real pricing question will be what will be the bookbuild price. I find it remarkable that the public is being invited to bid in that but with no transparency on price setting mechanism nor any upper limit to price. That is where 20 years of "tighter regulation" has got us. I would bet if the NZX under the former member model still was with us that this situation would not be permitted. Sad.

[iceman]

Marketing is very real, Sharesies have disclosed they are being paid by Air NZ to promote this offer

Air NZ Chair:
"Sharesies had 100,000 customers who were shareholders in Air New Zealand, making it an important investor base for the airline, she said. Combined, Sharesies investors hold about 6 per cent of the airline’s shares.

"They're actually a highly engaged audience.""

Good luck to them. Not much confidence starting with this sort of crap: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128368185/air-new-zealand-suspends-some-boeing-787-and-777-crew-over-rolling-strike-action

[Muse]

Marketing is very real, Sharesies have disclosed they are being paid by Air NZ to promote this offer

Anyone else find that disturbing & and a bit 'icky' ?

[nztx]

Anyone else find that disturbing & and a bit 'icky' ?


I'm not complaining .. someone took a fancy to my RGTs at a fairly good price and flew away quite happy :)

[Beagle]

Air NZ Chair:
"Sharesies had 100,000 customers who were shareholders in Air New Zealand, making it an important investor base for the airline, she said. Combined, Sharesies investors hold about 6 per cent of the airline’s shares.

"They're actually a highly engaged audience.""

Good luck to them. Not much confidence starting with this sort of crap: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/128368185/air-new-zealand-suspends-some-boeing-787-and-777-crew-over-rolling-strike-action

You'd want "danger money" to be breathing in everyone else's fumes on board a thin aluminum capsule. If AIR keeps up those tactics they won't have any staff left.


Anyone else find that disturbing & and a bit 'icky' ?
They market their platform as being no frills and no advice and then go on to promote the merits of this capital raise because its in their financial interest.
How much are they being paid, 30 pieces of Silver ?

[Waltzing]

"30 pieces of Silver"

its the roaring twenties all over again but wait MR B.

Reminds one of many cap raises and share floats over the ages.

Was wondering when the party over at SHAZ head quarters would melt down into a "well we sell rights to shares we hold in trust and WHO CARES!"

No MONEY from the SHAZ and the party stops.

AIR will do anything to get this one done and the money in the bank or they are Bank RUPT.

[Beagle]

The "ethics" of what Sharsies are doing here to their otherwise poorly informed and certainly not professionally advised customers is really jarring to say the very least.

[mikelee]

Most AIR staff are really p*** off at Sharsies for buying their "free" shares near the peak, at more than $1.70 last year. Staff that took the cash option made a far better decision IMO. :D

[Maxtrade]

The "ethics" of what Sharsies are doing here to their otherwise poorly informed and certainly not professionally advised customers is really jarring to say the very least.

Yeah surely there could be some legal recourse when things go pear shaped for the 'sharsies customers'?! There must be some guidelines that are being overlooked, mismanagement, non disclosure or something. Cant believe people are still foolishly buying in at todays SP, like lambs to the slaughter house. Makes zero sense. Undoubtedly still a large drop in SP on it's way still post Cap Raise.

[Beagle]

Yeah surely there could be some legal recourse when things go pear shaped for the 'sharsies customers'?! There must be some guidelines that are being overlooked, mismanagement, non disclosure or something. Cant believe people are still foolishly buying in at todays SP, like lambs to the slaughter house. Makes zero sense. Undoubtedly still a large drop in SP on it's way still post Cap Raise.

Had a very brief look through the "refueling" marketing document on the weekend. I say very brief because I have little taste for seeing people shorn like sheep with no chance of growing back their coat before winter. The extent, type and level of various disclaimers is something that I have never seen the likes of before and breaks new ground for a capital raise on the NZX in my opinion. You can't even download the offer document unless you certify you're a resident in N.Z. or Australia and insert your address and postcode into their system.

I think the Govt should just be more honest about it, set up a charitable trust and ask for donations and make those donations tax deducible.

I would imagine Sharsies have covered their backside in a similar way with more disclaimers than I've had hot dinners this month.

[winner69]

Greg just invited me on board flight NZ0 .... cool eh

Didn't like the bit about not putting so much in ones luggage though

[Beagle]

Greg just invited me on board flight NZ0 .... cool eh

Didn't like the bit about not putting so much in ones luggage though

What about if they suggested we lose weight to create less carbon emissions lol

[
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Greg Foran
Ngā mihi nui,

Greg Foran
Chief Executive Officer[/I]
Hmmm, you can save 100% of carbon by not choosing to make discretionary plane trips at all !

[winner69]

Do they still own the forests they bought?

[Popeye]

Yes. If they were really serious they would set a combined weight allowance including the traveler. I would be up for jumping on the scales along with my luggage, you can imagine many would not be so keen. Imagine the furore if they so much as suggested that.

All the airlines trade in the magician's trick of distraction to assuage the guilt of the air traveler whilst keeping them an air traveler. Dont feel bad, we'll plant a tree for you. We already cancelled the daily papers in the Koru lounge, that should help a bit! Our new planes will use less fuel!

The uncomfortable truth is that we would probably have to go back to living consuming like in the 1950s to actually reduce emissions significantly, but who wants to talk about that...







What about if they suggested we lose weight to create less carbon emissions lol

[
Hmmm, you can save 100% of carbon by not choosing to make discretionary plane trips at all !

[dobby41]

All the airlines trade in the magician's trick of distraction to assuage the guilt of the air traveler whilst keeping them an air traveler. Dont feel bad, we'll plant a tree for you. We already cancelled the daily papers in the Koru lounge, that should help a bit! Our new planes will use less fuel!


From an investor's perspective, it would be important that they succeeded in the magic - wouldn't it?

[iceman]

Greg just invited me on board flight NZ0 .... cool eh

Didn't like the bit about not putting so much in ones luggage though

Meanwhile, for the rest of us that actually live in the real World. I am at Ezeiza airport in Buenos Aires boarding a flight via Sao Paulo to Heathrow. Flights are full.
A friend is at Heathrow going the other way, same. Chocka.
I have friends travelling all over Europe. Flights are basically all full.

Meanwhile we are fed an utter load of rubbish and scaremongering in the NZ media. Wake up NZ.

[Popeye]

Too true. None of the airlines want to be seen as environmental laggards in the middle of a "crisis", it is no wonder they are all working so hard to not be seen as massive polluters, but as part of the ... er ... solution. And just how far will the climate change evangelists push in this area? We had carless days in the past, why not flyless years? Or carbon emission limits per person. I say that tongue in cheek, but ideas can take a life of their own.

Air NZ will be wanting some positive PR. On the magic theme there is something mysterious keeping their SP where it is, and the more positive the sentiment the better to their SP afloat for a bit longer. Goodness knows it is not a level-headed evaluation of their business prospects!

[Snow Leopard]

Meanwhile, for the rest of us that actually live in the real World. I am at Ezeiza airport in Buenos Aires boarding a flight via Sao Paulo to Heathrow. Flights are full.
A friend is at Heathrow going the other way, same. Chocka.
I have friends travelling all over Europe. Flights are basically all full.

Meanwhile we are fed an utter load of rubbish and scaremongering in the NZ media. Wake up NZ.

I passed through Heathrow T5 on Sunday flying to Istanbul. It was quite busy in the terminal building and on the flight economy was full.

The current problem for European aviation is not having enough staff available to meet the demand.

[Jaa]

I passed through Heathrow T5 on Sunday flying to Istanbul. It was quite busy in the terminal building and on the flight economy was full.

The current problem for European aviation is not having enough staff available to meet the demand.

This may be true in Europe and the Americas but isn't in Asia which is important to Air NZ. 400m odd middle to upper class Chinese aren't even allowed out of their apartments. People in Taiwan and SEA are also still very cautious.

Anyone know how the loads are on trans-tasman flights this month? A far more important market for Air NZ.

[tommy_d]

Do they still own the forests they bought?
looks like it: https://www.drylandcarbon.co.nz/
interesting chat on sustainable aviation fuels and emissions costs here: https://consult.environment.govt.nz/climate/proposed-changes-nz-ets-2022/ "Climate Change (Liquid Fossil Fuels) Regulations 2008 - Change the methodologies that opt-in participant and obligation fuel participants use to calculate emissions, so the full reduction in emissions caused by the opt-in participant’s supply of biofuel is part of their emissions return."

[Maxtrade]

Had a very brief look through the "refueling" marketing document on the weekend. I say very brief because I have little taste for seeing people shorn like sheep with no chance of growing back their coat before winter. The extent, type and level of various disclaimers is something that I have never seen the likes of before and breaks new ground for a capital raise on the NZX in my opinion. You can't even download the offer document unless you certify you're a resident in N.Z. or Australia and insert your address and postcode into their system.

I think the Govt should just be more honest about it, set up a charitable trust and ask for donations and make those donations tax deducible.

I would imagine Sharsies have covered their backside in a similar way with more disclaimers than I've had hot dinners this month.

Exactly Beagle, They should just be upfront about it nd treat it like a charity to keep our national airline afloat. Rather than trying to misled or 'trick' the public into thinking it is such an amazing opportunity and deal. Just be more upfront about the numbers and why the share offer is 0.53c. Not mislead people into thinking its some kind of amazing bargain. And in fact that they should expect to see the SP drop to these levels after the cap raise so there is no surprise. Surprise can have a spiralling affect and create fear and in turn negatively affecting a share price more. If people (including newer investors) know to expect SP to settle in and stabilise around the Cap Raise price 0.53 it would be less likely to then see people sell out of fear if their cost average price is considerably higher 0.75 - 0.90 for example, cutting their losses when realise they didn't make a 'quick buck' out of this supposed amazing discount opportunity. It's just setting the whole thing up to collapse on itself once people realise what it all means when the dust settles. With their only aim being to try to squeeze as much money out of existing shareholders (who do not want to see their previous shares diluted in value), and new investors dumping money in to. Just to keep the airline afloat, but have complete disregard for the shareholders who will get stung in the backside. Air New Zealand has huge headwinds on all accounts and massive debt levels beyond which any other company would be sustainable to not be bankrupt.

As you say a much better approach would have been to incorporate tax deductible donations. And honesty from the government and AIR NZ as to the structure, meaning and reality of this.

What are folks guesses of when this unrealistic SP in the 0.8's take the next dive down? Are there that many fool hardy punters buying in at todays SP still, senseless.

[Beagle]

Nicely said Maxtrade. Its well worth noting that the Govt's stake is being reduced down to 51% through this process so they want to maintain control but socialize as much of the losses as possible.

Why do they want to maintain control, some might wonder ? Well aside from the need to have crucial transport infrastructure for domestic travel at a reasonable price, (heaven forbid someone like Emirates dominating N.Z. domestic travel and prices) they need it for international freight but its well worth noting that even when AIR loses money each year and the Government don't get any direct income from company tax or dividends, they are still collecting hundreds of millions per annum from GST on domestic travel tickets and PAYE on all the staff salaries and wages.

The clear risk with this disingenuous refueling for recovery, maximum lipstick on a pig marketing story is that they might have to refuel again and possibly even a third time because this road to recovery could be a lot longer than they are leading people on, to believe. You could easily end up with a whole new generation of disillusioned investors who could legitimately claim they were lead up the garden path to be shorn like sheep with no mercy whatsoever for leaving a bit of the fleece on their bodies for the chilling winter of discontent that's coming as sure as night follows day...

[BlackPeter]

Wondering whether this article in the herald (sorry, paywalled) is relevant for AIR's future:


A New Zealand company is trying to raise close to $800 million for an ambitious project to link towns and cities with all-electric "sea gliders", a boat-plane hybrid with top speeds of up to 540km/h.

If it gets off the water, Ocean Flyer would revolutionise transport around Aotearoa and is promising low-cost fares and bus-like frequency through low operating cost of the craft which would dock near many city and town centres.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/air-napier-firm-ocean-flyers-800m-deal-with-regent-seagliders-to-revolutionise-travel-in-nz/T6E6XYBFVI7OWG25LG2NSQOXLA/

Apparently AIR Napier needs only $800 million (i.e. less than the current AIR CR) to set up a fleet of environmentally friendly seagliders connecting NZ's major towns - cheaper than AIR's planes, nearly as fast and much more environmentally friendly compared to AIR's fleet of global polluters.

Sure, sounds like the future :cool: , but hey - its not April 1st and maybe this is where we are going (vs moving back into the past).

[Marilyn Munroe]

Had a very brief look through the "refueling" marketing document on the weekend.....

A prudent investor should go beneath the wing of Robertson Airlines balance sheet with a fuel terster, open the test cock and determine if the fuel-water mix in the balance sheet is fit to fly.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Hope we’ve all pledged to follow the Tiaki Promise

Air NZ seem to be pretty committed to it pleading to all to take the pledge

[BlackPeter]

Hope we’ve all pledged to follow the Tiaki Promise

Air NZ seem to be pretty committed to it pleading to all to take the pledge

is this "pledge" or should this read "plunge"?

[Beagle]

Hope we’ve all pledged to follow the Tiaki Promise

Air NZ seem to be pretty committed to it pleading to all to take the pledge

We pledge to take care of people places and the environment while we burn billions of liters of aviation fuel into the upper atmosphere where it does most damage...what an awesome pledge lol

Here's a better one, I pledge not to fly on any aircraft unless is absolutely essential for work purposes.

[nztx]

We pledge to take care of people places and the environment while we burn billions of liters of aviation fuel into the upper atmosphere where it does most damage...what an awesome pledge lol

Here's a better one, I pledge not to fly on any aircraft unless is absolutely essential for work purposes.


I like this one better:

I pledge to charter an aircraft instead to avoid the AIR turbulence :)

[850man]

crikey, up 5% ish today. Sorry I just don't get the enthusiasm.

[nztx]

crikey, up 5% ish today. Sorry I just don't get the enthusiasm.


Me neither .. but Rights trading closes on 26 Apr 2022 - Tuesday may have something to do with the flurry of interest :)

SP on Tuesday after Anzac could be interesting, heading up to Rights exercise close on 1 May 2022

At end of the day it's still the same old bag of flying nuts and bolts just restructured :)

[Beagle]

Its would appear their refuel for recovery marketing campaign has been a success. Good luck to shareholders, you're going to need it.

[peat]

airlines being eco is just fricken hilarious.

[nztx]

airlines being eco is just fricken hilarious.


but you bet the blinkered quotient will be bound to be lapping it up hook line & sinker :)

that is until their own travel habits come into question ..

[winner69]

NZ going to be left out in cold as travel restrictions ease around the world

https://www.oag.com/blog/restriction-free-destinations-join-path-recovery

[Sideshow Bob]

Last day of rights trading today.....

[Beagle]

Qantas not mucking about with new aircraft orders. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/128520194/most-luxurious-aircraft-ever-created-inside-qantas-new-ultralong-haul-airbus
Sydney to London non stop is very impressive range !

[BlackPeter]

Qantas not mucking about with new aircraft orders. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/128520194/most-luxurious-aircraft-ever-created-inside-qantas-new-ultralong-haul-airbus
Sydney to London non stop is very impressive range !

Well yes - super long haul ... not a particular fun for the poor passengers, though :) :

[Beagle]

Those first class cabin's look okay....at least nobody would be breathing directly in your face. Could have a good long kip in that bed, argue a bit on ST, check out a few movies, eat and drink a lot, spend some time researching entertainment idea's in London and it would be all over in no time.

[BlackPeter]

Those first class cabin's look okay....at least nobody would be breathing directly in your face. Could have a good long kip in that bed, argue a bit on ST, check out a few movies, eat and drink a lot, spend some time researching entertainment idea's in London and it would be all over in no time.

Fair enough. First class is real expensive real estate, though ... but definitly more fun to burn the money that way compared to investing it in AIR shares (well, nowadays anyway).

[whatsup]

88% of the rights issue taken up a fair result from N Z's largest airline.

[Dassets]

Means 75% of non govt taken up. Not that great when you consider the rapid hounds of the Shaz!

[Sideshow Bob]

New shares start trading Monday.....will be interesting.....

[SCOTTY]

New shares start trading Monday.....will be interesting.....

With 3.3+ billion shares on issue, there should be plenty to go round :)

[Southern Lad]

The AFR is reporting the the retail shortfall bookbuild shares were cleared at 81 cents.

[nztx]

The AFR is reporting the the retail shortfall bookbuild shares were cleared at 81 cents.


doesn't surprise looking at where the head shares were at recently ..

[winner69]

doesn't surprise looking at where the head shares were at recently ..

So if one didn’t take up rights they get a 46 cents windfall.

Maybe in a few months time could be seen as a good move

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well I think we all called this one wrong? So far anyway.

[bull....]

yea it was a successful rights issue even the ones who brought heads at the last minute did well

[BlackPeter]

Well I think we all called this one wrong? So far anyway.

Just remember - the performance isn't over until the fat lady sings. Just wait for the next financials ... and the next "refuelling".

[Raz]

Certainly lack of seats and options AKL - LAX, either way…AIR not in a position to maximise revenue currently??

[Beagle]

Just remember - the performance isn't over until the fat lady sings. Just wait for the next financials ... and the next "refuelling".

Well said. I think the market is presently extremely bullish on the reopening and travel prospects but AIR's balance sheet is not going to be in fabulous shape when they report in August even after this recapitalization and of course there's now 3.3 Billion shares so any future earnings when they finally do happen are going to look super weak on an earnings per share basis, even if another refueling isn't required, (and I think its likely they will need another one). I'm staying well away.

[Dassets]

Well I think we all called this one wrong? So far anyway.
Not really. Shorting worked ok.the quantum of gain just a but less than expected but my IRR would over 100%

[Jaa]

Certainly lack of seats and options AKL - LAX, either way…AIR not in a position to maximise revenue currently??

AKL/CHC - SIN too, not many flights scheduled and for many of those there's no economy seats available at all. This on a route that the AIR/SIN alliance used to have 4x daily flights to NZ. Prices 2-3x pre-pandemic levels too.

Trans Tasman demand far outstripping supply (https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/128539098/demand-far-outstretching-supply-most-flights-to-australia-sold-out-in-may) too.

Begs the question, what is Air NZ doing? They have plenty of planes and crew, why are they not in the air or at least in the schedule?

Maybe they been listening to the doom merchants here..

[Jaa]

Pressure now on the NZ government (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/covid-19-air-new-zealand-chief-executive-greg-foran-wants-government-to-ditch-pre-departure-testing.html) to remove pre-departure testing as more pragmatic countries did long ago. Especially necessary considering the outrageous prices charged for testing in our monopoly riddled plague islands.

Once it goes, demand will be a true tidal wave.

[THEONE]

Totally agree, no seats, or ridiculous prices. Add more planes

[iceman]

Totally agree, no seats, or ridiculous prices. Add more planes

As Jaa said, the demand will be very limited while the current testing requirements remain in place. The Government needs to remove them and do it fast, so our tourism and hospitality industries can start the much needed rebuild.

[Dassets]

I haven't seen what I got in the shareholder shortfall allocation from the company as yet, but I got 100% of what I bid for via the broker pool. This is counter to what the company said today but I am waiting to see if scaling happened in the shareholder pool. BTW , I haven't lost my mind and am going long, I am only covering my short!! I would have thought most who had shorted have covered. Can't see who will buy going forward.

[Waltzing]

If business class travel will likely be more expensive then cruise ship's will surely face some real cost pressures in supplying everything from the 2 types of Oil some use right down to daily fresh baked bread.

[Jaa]

As Jaa said, the demand will be very limited while the current testing requirements remain in place. The Government needs to remove them and do it fast, so our tourism and hospitality industries can start the much needed rebuild.

Demand is FAR outstripping supply even with them in place on most key Air NZ international routes (LAX, SIN, Tasman). Removing them will as you say cause demand to go even more ballistic. Allowing super normal profits for the airline for the rest of year or until Air NZ and their competitors regain enough confidence in the country to massively increase capacity.

Something no airline seems in a hurry to do, having been previously burned by NZ. Reputational damage from the outrageous and illegal restrictions that NZ used to lock out its own citizens.

[ordop]

I know markets are weak atm, but..... it looks like the long anticipated fall in sp is beginning. Trading at 71cps is equivalent of $1.06 pre raise. I was surprised the rights issue finished so buoyant especially the shortfall bookbuild going through at 81cps. Perhaps those who sold the heads ex rights and also took up there entitlement are now exiting via the rear of the plane. Wouldn't be surprised to see them in low to mid 60's (which equates to about 80cps pre raise).

Well done to Citi and UBS? Certainly met and exceeded their clients expectation.

[stoploss]

Took half of my long term short back today @ 71.5 cents . Had to be patient with this one .......

[Dassets]

Brought back my short today. Looking forward to the AIRRH and AIRRI cash issues! AIRRG was the 7th issue while listed, so H and I are next in the alphabet for the uninitiated in rights' ticker coding.

[nztx]

Something must have gone wrong .. AIR wasn't supposed to lose altitude like this :)

Was Robbo spotted kneeling on the tarmac in front of a large bird, begging not to be run over somewhere ? :)

Are all the Mum & Dad and Sharesies supporters on holiday or fresh out of coin to jack things up ? ;)

[Beagle]

Makes me wonder who jacked it up during the cash issue process ?

[Arbroath]

Makes me wonder who jacked it up during the cash issue process ?

I’ve been feeling for weeks it’s been heavily manipulated and now it’s falling in a hole after the money is raised. Call me cynical but it’s performance is much worse than the markets the past 2-3 sessions.

[Balance]

Something must have gone wrong .. AIR wasn't supposed to lose altitude like this :)

Was Robbo spotted kneeling on the tarmac in front of a large bird, begging not to be run over somewhere ? :)

Are all the Mum & Dad and Sharesies supporters on holiday or fresh out of coin to jack things up ? ;)

Talked to a Sharesies client/investor yesterday who participated and bid for more shares in the shortfall. He was successful in his bid and got all he wanted at 81c.

He is rather horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down to market price so he bailed out of his '53c' shares yesterday to limit his exposure.

Signs of the time.

[Sideshow Bob]

NZX just updated their website.

3.368B shares on issue, $0.349 NTA per share - perhaps not adjusted for the cash they just got in.....

$811m net assets as at 31/12 + $1.2b just raised. I reckon net assets of approx $0.597 per share.

They lost $376m in the first half of the financial year. I haven't done an indepth search of latest announcements, but they did say full year loss wouldn't exceed $800m. So we'll "be kind" and say $250m loss (no doubt plenty of govt ministers on planes in the next year or so). Another 7.4c per share, taking it down to around 52 cents.

Then further losses expected in following years. Notwithstanding the macro environment with fuel, war, inflation, China lockdown etc etc.

Doesn't exactly look like a bargain at $0.70......;)

[ordop]

I’ve been feeling for weeks it’s been heavily manipulated and now it’s falling in a hole after the money is raised. Call me cynical but it’s performance is much worse than the markets the past 2-3 sessions.

When the underwriters IB team are getting well rewarded for the cap raise by AIR, the underwriters Insto trading desk can afford a 'loss leading' long trading position in AIR. All about painting a narrative whilst the issue is still open. Just bewildered mugs were prepared to pay up to 81cps on the shortfall bookbuild - that equates to $1.37 pre rights.

As for the 'horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down' piece, ahaha, welcome to a Dutch auction for a naïve investor.

But what makes the whole charade even more impressive was how the underwriters successfully did this during a period of high fuel prices, very high inflation and economic gloom. Some absolute mugs in NZ with too many dollars and not enough sense.

[Dassets]

They only adjust NTA on FY numbers i think, not half year. Plus take off the 50mil on fees

[Beagle]

NZX just updated their website.

3.368B shares on issue, $0.349 NTA per share - perhaps not adjusted for the cash they just got in.....

$811m net assets as at 31/12 + $1.2b just raised. I reckon net assets of approx $0.597 per share.

They lost $376m in the first half of the financial year. I haven't done an indepth search of latest announcements, but they did say full year loss wouldn't exceed $800m. So we'll "be kind" and say $250m loss (no doubt plenty of govt ministers on planes in the next year or so). Another 7.4c per share, taking it down to around 52 cents.

Then further losses expected in following years. Notwithstanding the macro environment with fuel, war, inflation, China lockdown etc etc.

Doesn't exactly look like a bargain at $0.70......;)

Top post. More huge losses in FY23 and FY24 to come. I am happy to wait for 25 cents.

[BlackPeter]

When the underwriters IB team are getting well rewarded for the cap raise by AIR, the underwriters Insto trading desk can afford a 'loss leading' long trading position in AIR. All about painting a narrative whilst the issue is still open. Just bewildered mugs were prepared to pay up to 81cps on the shortfall bookbuild - that equates to $1.37 pre rights.

As for the 'horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down' piece, ahaha, welcome to a Dutch auction for a naïve investor.

But what makes the whole charade even more impressive was how the underwriters successfully did this during a period of high fuel prices, very high inflation and economic gloom. Some absolute mugs in NZ with too many dollars and not enough sense.

Has nothing to do with NZ. Many humans tend to be in extreme situations hype driven ... otherwise it wouldn't be often fear and greed shaking the markets. Just look at the mugs investing in cryptocurrency ... no fundamentals, 100% hype.

I guess these AIR "investors" (all hoping to make a quick buck - i.e. greed-driven) got at least some fundamentals for their dollar, even if its not a lot and even if the risks for the remaining fundamentals disappearing are not neglegible.

Just another useful lesson in human psychology, even if the people who needed it are most likely to ignore it - again.

[Maxtrade]

Has nothing to do with NZ. Many humans tend to be in extreme situations hype driven ... otherwise it wouldn't be often fear and greed shaking the markets. Just look at the mugs investing in cryptocurrency ... no fundamentals, 100% hype.

I guess these AIR "investors" (all hoping to make a quick buck - i.e. greed-driven) got at least some fundamentals for their dollar, even if its not a lot and even if the risks for the remaining fundamentals disappearing are not neglegible.

Just another useful lesson in human psychology, even if the people who needed it are most likely to ignore it - again.

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

[Beagle]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Having worked on my Uncle's farm in my younger days to pay my way through Uni I can tell you from first hand experience with more than 5000 of them that sheep are not deep thinkers LOL

[BlackPeter]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Maybe you should study human history ... and then answer your own question:) ;

But if that's too much effort:

one of Einstein's (a quite smart guy) more famous cititations goes like 'Two Things Are Infinite: the Universe and Human Stupidity". It is as well reported that he was not so sure about the infinity of the universe ...

If many people agree, then this is called :"GroupThink". This is an interesting psychological phenomena, but not a good indicator for the relevant groups being right.

And if you need more indicators:

32% of the world's population are Christians, 23% are Muslims, 22% are Hindus or Buddhists and roughly 7% are atheists. OK - Hinduism and Budhism might be from their perspective not necessarily be mutually exclusive with other religions, but the others are with each other and with them.

Now - even 7% of the world population are already more than 500 million people, who clearly can't all be wrong, can they? Without investigating which of these more or less mutual exclusive religions / convictions is right ... no matter, which of them it is - the majority of people clearly must be wrong.

Ouch.

[Dassets]

This is back from mid-Nov on the NTA issue. I will also repeat AIR will lose money at least until FY25, unless it does an almighty cost out. Why? Just because you fly plane on a route doesn't mean you make money. Load factor break even I can only guess cause haven't modelled for over 20 years but probably 60% under the old rules when business seats paid for alot of the flight. Note today's announcement on re-hiring aka costs. Cost out exercise coming doesn't reconcile with that re-hiring.

I predict(not forecast under FMA rules lol) 2-3 cap raises. 1st, the "Light at the End of Tunnel" raise, 2nd, the "Almost at the End of the Tunnel, Just got to get There" raise and finally the "Recovery Opening up Opportunities(but we are cash-flow negative and just need some money brother because we been flying for no cash cause of them pesky credits) " raise. $3 to 4 billion in total. "Welcome to my parlour boys" Quote JA 2022.

A couple of posts on NTA from last year and Feb this year. IMO NTA after the cap raise is about 35 cents per share incl additional shares. My next prediction, Foran will be gone within 12 months and not because of Henry's article either. Remember the credits still have to be dealt with!! No-one talks about that inconvenient fact. eg I am flying to the US business class in June. Paid $6t return on AIRNZ and used $2T credits. Cash handed over $4T. Cash costs for flight are Fuel cost for the 2 flights circa NZD$240T. Say a biz seat takes up 1% of pax space, that leaves $1600 cash to pay for everything else, staff, maintenance, overhead, airways, airport charges and not least food, Jack Daniels and champagne or $800 per flight. Hopefully they skimp on the maintenance and not the Jack Daniels or champagne and some of the food. Staff I don't care, one pilot is enough(I can help lowering the gear or something, a couple of radio calls, the public time adjustment and weather announcement call too!). And when the board's name change paper to AIR Aotearoa or AeroFlop(Robbo's idea, thanks Min!) comes around the Survive Revive Thrive will be complete. This post all in jest btw except for the numbers.

[Sideshow Bob]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Up to $0.74 today - No doubt some of it the border announcement, but still, go figure.....

[Waltzing]

A380's are back!!

This may have been posted already.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300585861/worlds-largest-passenger-plane-returning-to-new-zealand

[kiora]

At $28m/seaglider, surely not low cost fares?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/green-travel/300591084/first-footage-of-new-electric-seagliders-coming-to-new-zealand

Looks exciting though, game changer?

[unhuman]

"New Zealand-based Ocean Flyer has put down a $1 million initial deposit for 25 aircraft, an order which will eventually cost around $700 million."

28mill each...the small ones only seat 12.

lol

[nztx]

Gee .. looks like the AIR's deflating out of the sails of Robbo's "Covid Air" ? ;)

What's going on ? :)

[SCOTTY]

Gee .. looks like the AIR's deflating out of the sails of Robbo's "Covid Air" ? ;)

What's going on ? :)

Reality ��

[biker]

No comments on this thread for a few days.
I see the CEO recently spent a million bucks buying shares at around 68c.
I’m buying at these levels for the longer term. A cyclical stock that has always provided good returns when bought and sold at the right time.
Share price may not have bottomed out but IMO it’s close enough.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Share price may not have bottomed out but IMO it’s close enough.

Yes airlines are cyclical but I think you are too soon.

I reckon the full effect of the lock down has yet to show up in Robertson Airlines results.

Further the world economy is about to suffer from deflation, where costs go up but incomes stay the same. Hardly a situation where punters are likely to splash out on discretionary spending such as overseas travel.

I would wait.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[nztx]

Anyone seen a spare bicycle pump laying around ? :)

Maybe the Dangerous Goods Outfit can spare a hot air blower to help out ? ;)

[Maxtrade]

Yes airlines are cyclical but I think you are too soon.

I reckon the full effect of the lock down has yet to show up in Robertson Airlines results.

Further the world economy is about to suffer from deflation, where costs go up but incomes stay the same. Hardly a situation where punters are likely to splash out on discretionary spending such as overseas travel.

I would wait.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Hard to know. More likely to see SP retreat back to CR as we have often seen historically. Before then being able to form a true lower end trough and rally up off that base. Many headwinds still ahead for Air for sure. Just look how rapidly airline flights are going up. As was to be expected. However the challenge will be attracting people to resume international flights at high volumes with the elevated cost of travel, and higher living costs, higher interest rates, and inflation. For those reasons it would be prudent to expect the airline to struggle for some time yet. CEO buying in is a very small % of net worth and probably more a gesture to show faith and support for the airline, hence why it has been so publicised. Will depend on if the market sees through this, and waits for a global recession to be overcome. Or if there are enough investors willing to buy in at this SP level while knowing difficulties ahead. Odds more in favour of a minor rally if that, then retracement to Cap Raise 0.53-0.55. Who would agree with this analysis?

[whatsup]

Has AIR bottomed @ .65 today for now ?

[Arbroath]

Has AIR bottomed @ .65 today for now ?

Bottomed…your aving a laugh
No dividend until 2025 at the earliest.
61.5c today…sub 60 coming to a store near you soon

[Maxtrade]

Surely but slowly as expected SP retracing to around CR 0.53. The sow tyre leak to get there

[Waltzing]

worth starting to do some numbers on the next release of financials.

[Dassets]

worth starting to do some numbers on the next release of financials.

Time to start agitating for a FMA investigation more like it. Questions I would ask, how did the share price stay supported prior to "fleecing" day. What has driven the stock price action since. Did disclosure meet the needs and requirements of the investor pool as per FMCA requirements. Cash ripped up so far by the public that took the stock, circa $275m. Cash ripped up by the majority shareholder (protected by endless waivers) nil, it got cash and value back. NZX50 down 4% since cash issue close, AIR down 29%. What say you now Mr CEO? Are we in Survive, Revive or Thrive mode. IMO this will got lower and look for 35 cents

[Waltzing]

ok https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

.35 would be interesting any takers for .25

[biker]

Happy to buy more today at 62c - about 9% less than the CEO paid for his and 23% less than the book build.

[winner69]

Things looking brighter at AIR

FY22 loss gone from ‘less than $800m ‘ to ‘better than expectations’ to latest update of ‘less than $750m’

But market don't like it

Share price into the 50s

[Maxtrade]

Things looking brighter at AIR

FY22 loss gone from ‘less than $800m ‘ to ‘better than expectations’ to latest update of ‘less than $750m’

But market don't like it

Share price into the 50s

Reason market does not like it is realisation of massive losses with little positivity for growth and huge turbulent hurdles not magically going away, even with 'open boarders'. Shareholders should not be surprised whatsoever of SP retracting back to 0.53 CR raise level. CEO purchase was nothing more than a ploy to try and have a shot at providing support and confidence to a falling SP. Buying in now is still trying to catch a falling knife, chances are will get cut. Those that gambled thinking SP would somehow magically stage a huge recovery right away obviously weren't reading this forum ;) Still someways to fall yet. Can only hope the CR 0.53 level holds, if that doesn't then there will be a lot of disgruntled investors.

Every little bit of poor news, offshore markets, inflation, continually rising interest rates, continued Russia war and its effect on energy prices etc, will just keep counteracting any brief minor support rallies on the SP. Surprising punters haven't realised this yet, buy orders stack up then a big wallop of a sell order knocks it back down a level taking advantage of those that think the SP price has stabilised. Just need to look at the charts to see solid downtrend still well in place. Timing the bottom can often lead to a few tears for many.

[winner69]

......

Can only hope the CR 0.53 level holds, if that doesn't then there will be a lot of disgruntled investors.

I think there will be a ot of 'disgruntled investors'

The 53 cents was just a figure pulled out of the hat anyway ,,,,, didn't mean AIR was worth 53 cents

[Snow Leopard]

See how easy it is too turn an airline around:

Virgin Australia mulls IPO in 2023 in fast rebound from collapse (https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/virgin-australia-mulls-ipo-in-2023-in-fast-rebound-from-collapse)

[Waltzing]

"The 53 cents was just a figure pulled out of the hat anyway"

. 35?

the investors were warned.....

[Marilyn Munroe]

See how easy it is too turn an airline around:



An airline float promoted by a private equity fund. The forward projections in the offer document would have to have a very low stall speed and an option for the the subscribers to perform a go-round.

The problems currently being experienced at British Airports suggests the ramp up to pre-covid levels may strike turbulence in NZ.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

See how easy it is too turn an airline around:

Virgin Australia mulls IPO in 2023 in fast rebound from collapse (https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/virgin-australia-mulls-ipo-in-2023-in-fast-rebound-from-collapse)

Doesn’t seem that long ago that Luxon and Borghetti had a clash of egos and Luxon pulled AIR out of Virgin relationship ….selling AIRs 25% stake to the Chinese….loss zillions.

Maybe a blessing in disguise but the whole Virgin fiasco shows how airline execs do silly strategic things.

Never mind, Luxon still can say he ran an airline (or two)

And our Jayne will again be in charge if a listed company.

[whatsup]

I see .50 is the 10 year recent low , will that be breached shortly ?

[kiora]

An airline float promoted by a private equity fund. The forward projections in the offer document would have to have a very low stall speed and an option for the the subscribers to perform a go-round.

The problems currently being experienced at British Airports suggests the ramp up to pre-covid levels may strike turbulence in NZ.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

AIA & AIR look like they've done a lot to streamline passenger flows over the last couple of years with electronic check ins & work flow which should put them in good position to handle any increase in traffic.
Meanwhile San Fran still a dogs breakfast to transit through !

[BlackPeter]

AIA & AIR look like they've done a lot to streamline passenger flows over the last couple of years with electronic check ins & work flow which should put them in good position to handle any increase in traffic.
Meanwhile San Fran still a dogs breakfast to transit through !

Me shudders of thinking in this context about dogs breakfeast. Seen the doghandlers and their beasts at Frisco and LA herding the international transit passengers? Better don't think about turning into one of these beasts breakfeast.

Getting bl**dy difficult to pick a safe and pelasant travel route from here to Europe. Do I prefer to take the risk of being taken down by Russian missiles or is it more pleasant to be munched by some of the US boarder guard bulldogs ...? Decisions, decisions ...

[nztx]

I see .50 is the 10 year recent low , will that be breached shortly ?


The real question might by how far .. with the continuing jetstreams of Red Ink being belched in short to medium
a bit like the clouds of hot air with 'not much effective doey' being emitted from another quarter .. :)

[kiora]

Me shudders of thinking in this context about dogs breakfeast. Seen the doghandlers and their beasts at Frisco and LA herding the international transit passengers? Better don't think about turning into one of these beasts breakfeast.

Getting bl**dy difficult to pick a safe and pelasant travel route from here to Europe. Do I prefer to take the risk of being taken down by Russian missiles or is it more pleasant to be munched by some of the US boarder guard bulldogs ...? Decisions, decisions ...

Yep agree although one nearly smiled ??? but allow a good 4 hours to transit & a lot of patience in queues a mile long moving at snails pace.
Singapore not open for easy stopover yet?

[Bobdn]

Hong Kong was an easy transit just now. Very helpful staff at the airport. Feels good to be heading away from the Hermit Kingdom.

[Beagle]

US airlines getting absolutely pummeled. Cruise ship, casino and hotel stocks too. The reopening trade appears to be dead.
Be careful with this one folks. Highly likely to be below 50 cents very soon and probably headed a LOT lower from there.

[Sideshow Bob]

Expect fares to jump by 20 per cent says Air New Zealand as fuel soars - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/expect-fares-to-jump-by-20-per-cent-says-air-new-zealand-as-fuel-soars/5ZGF7JXKYX6XABKWFUYADXZHP4/)

Also saying demand pushing prices higher (for how long??)

[nztx]

Expect fares to jump by 20 per cent says Air New Zealand as fuel soars - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/expect-fares-to-jump-by-20-per-cent-says-air-new-zealand-as-fuel-soars/5ZGF7JXKYX6XABKWFUYADXZHP4/)

Also saying demand pushing prices higher (for how long??)

They're probably 'dreaming mate' going forwards :)

[Dassets]

They're probably 'dreaming mate' going forwards :)

Someone needs to draw a supply demand curve for Mr Foran and explain elastic and inelastic features of flying ie demand is elastic, supply not so much. Hard to use the train/tunnel analogy for an airline. Sadly the Tenerife "Goddamn, that son-of-a-bitch is coming!" comment (apologies for any offence) might describe the AIR NZ CEO/Pilot describing the demand destruction coming down the runway. The AIR team members aren't stupid but it is hard to understand the strategic direction of the airline atm.

[mikelee]

Someone needs to draw a supply demand curve for Mr Foran and explain elastic and inelastic features of flying ie demand is elastic, supply not so much. Hard to use the train/tunnel analogy for an airline. Sadly the Tenerife "Goddamn, that son-of-a-bitch is coming!" comment (apologies for any offence) might describe the AIR NZ CEO/Pilot describing the demand destruction coming down the runway. The AIR team members aren't stupid but it is hard to understand the strategic direction of the airline atm.

Capacity is so low atm that staffs are not even allowed to book a flight using standby tickets I hear. :lol: Little point working for an airline I reckon and I expect more brain drains to follow. Employees have very little loyalty these days and will happily jump ship if better offers are on the table.

[kiora]

In the USA pilots for the bigger companies work for outside contract companies contracted back to the airline

[Snow Leopard]

In the USA pilots for the bigger companies work for outside contract companies contracted back to the airline

This is only partially true and the reality is more complicated and variable.

But as a f'rinstance, as they were in the news a few days ago, Piedmont Airlines (https://piedmont-airlines.com/about/our-company/) as a regional airline, flies planes and employs aircrew for American Airlines Group but in this case AAG own them.

There is career path from Piedmont to American itself.


Eagle Airways was a fully own subsidiary of Air NZ in a 'similar' manner.

[Maxtrade]

I see .50 is the 10 year recent low , will that be breached shortly ?

Might well make sense how they derived the arbitrary figure of 0.53 Cap Raise!

Would make sense that SP holds around this level 0.50- 0.53. Surely it cant breach and drop to 0.35 as a few have suggested in this thread!? But who knows they are going to be in the RED for a very long time and no dividends, much less attractive to savvy investors. Demand going out of the sails. Just need to look at SP since Cap Raise. Cant believe people were gullible enough to be buying in at those previous levels. The amazing hyped up buy 2 shares for each one at this bargain discount. Folk buying SP rights. Those who did buy in are now sitting negative to their cost average for sure It was written on the wall SP was going to drop at least to 0.53. Most experienced investors on this thread were all saying the same thing. Hope is a wonderful yet dangerous thing. FOMO I guess encouraged that many people to jump on board, ignoring all the fundamentals of the company and what it faces. Flight tickets are already so much more than they use to be, obviously as the airlines need to try to maximise where they can, and higher fuel costs etc. But with inflation, interest, higher living costs, people won't be able to travel as much as they once did. Travel will become more of a luxury for those who can afford it. There will be less people that can afford it. In New Zealand it's going to be facing these hurdles and challenges for many years ahead. Its not going to be the miracle SP suddenly bounces back up miraculously because our boarders are open. Business fundamentals shouldn't simply be ignored when looking to invest in a company.

[Sideshow Bob]

Business travel will be one of the keys moving forward. Would see the leisure market much more price driven, but many companies have got by with Zoom, limited domestic travel and next-to-no international travel for the last 2+ years. It may redefine for business what is "necessary", and what is superfluous - especially as prices/costs increase and the economic conditions come under more pressure. No doubt Govt depts will have no problem hopping on a plane....!!

Our company is export-based, and we've done no international travel since the start of Covid - previously maybe $100-120k on international fares (almost all on AIR). We would be pretty regular beforehand, but have got by OK without travel. Going forward, foresee we'll still travel internationally, but travel less, and probably less domestically.

[Beagle]

Business travel will be one of the keys moving forward. Would see the leisure market much more price driven, but many companies have got by with Zoom, limited domestic travel and next-to-no international travel for the last 2+ years. It may redefine for business what is "necessary", and what is superfluous - especially as prices/costs increase and the economic conditions come under more pressure. No doubt Govt depts will have no problem hopping on a plane....!!

Our company is export-based, and we've done no international travel since the start of Covid - previously maybe $100-120k on international fares (almost all on AIR). We would be pretty regular beforehand, but have got by OK without travel. Going forward, foresee we'll still travel internationally, but travel less, and probably less domestically.

Dead right mate. Digital platforms like Zoom have become a widely accepted, entrenched and safe means of engaging with customers. Business executives don't want the risk of travelling to other countries. A lot of hype went with the "refuel" propaganda. I have never seen so many highly detailed disclaimers and elaborately worded caveats in the fine print as in that capital raise. I suspect many in the Sharsies crowd didn't read the fine print.

To me the capital raise for all intents and purposes looked like a shearing shed. Enter the plane at the front, get all your wool shorn off and sorry about all the blood you lost from the knicks and cuts and exit at the rear. Thanks for coming.

[samjaynz]

Business travel will be one of the keys moving forward. Would see the leisure market much more price driven, but many companies have got by with Zoom, limited domestic travel and next-to-no international travel for the last 2+ years. It may redefine for business what is "necessary", and what is superfluous - especially as prices/costs increase and the economic conditions come under more pressure. No doubt Govt depts will have no problem hopping on a plane....!!

Our company is export-based, and we've done no international travel since the start of Covid - previously maybe $100-120k on international fares (almost all on AIR). We would be pretty regular beforehand, but have got by OK without travel. Going forward, foresee we'll still travel internationally, but travel less, and probably less domestically.

Similar story here. Pre-Covid I used to travel a lot for business - in the 2019/2020 year I spent around $30k with Air NZ. Down to about $3k in the past year, for domestic routes only.

I've been able to keep the majority of my international business without needing to travel (in fact it's easier as now Zoom/Skype is so acceptable, there's no stressing about whether you'll actually get there) and it is so much less hassle. I don't miss in the slightest getting up at 3am to get to the airport for a 6am Sydney flight every couple of weeks.

With borders reopened and testing requirement going away, I will look to do a bit of work travel but nowhere near the same volume (probably once per year per customer, as opposed to every month or so pre Covid). I don't think I would ever want or need to go back to the same degree of travel ... I have so much more spare time and have saved a fortune.

I am eager to do some leisure travel, but that is more price sensitive for me. I will pick Air NZ if the price is reasonable as I like their service, but it does look like Qantas, Jetstar, Emirates etc are providing much better value. I might miss out on the Koru lounge, but that is packed to the rafters and very mediocre these days anyway (and with the savings I can go and get a nice meal in the airport or nearby).

As you say, govt departments will keep Air NZ's business travel afloat. I'm thinking of a relative of mine, who's on their fifth business class trip to Europe (on the public's dime) this year so far, for some "climate change policy" work. Lucky for some, I guess - although I presume that govt departments get a favourable price for travel so maybe it's not so expensive?

[nztx]

Runway 56 .. crash landing narrowly missed

NTA 34.9c EPS -0.267c

Anyone fancy some surface skimming with Covid Air ? .. one wrong turn for a dip in the drink or
spot of window washing so you can see the fish outside better .. :)

[Dassets]

Similar story here. Pre-Covid I used to travel a lot for business - in the 2019/2020 year I spent around $30k with Air NZ. Down to about $3k in the past year, for domestic routes only.

I've been able to keep the majority of my international business without needing to travel (in fact it's easier as now Zoom/Skype is so acceptable, there's no stressing about whether you'll actually get there) and it is so much less hassle. I don't miss in the slightest getting up at 3am to get to the airport for a 6am Sydney flight every couple of weeks.

With borders reopened and testing requirement going away, I will look to do a bit of work travel but nowhere near the same volume (probably once per year per customer, as opposed to every month or so pre Covid). I don't think I would ever want or need to go back to the same degree of travel ... I have so much more spare time and have saved a fortune.

I am eager to do some leisure travel, but that is more price sensitive for me. I will pick Air NZ if the price is reasonable as I like their service, but it does look like Qantas, Jetstar, Emirates etc are providing much better value. I might miss out on the Koru lounge, but that is packed to the rafters and very mediocre these days anyway (and with the savings I can go and get a nice meal in the airport or nearby).

As you say, govt departments will keep Air NZ's business travel afloat. I'm thinking of a relative of mine, who's on their fifth business class trip to Europe (on the public's dime) this year so far, for some "climate change policy" work. Lucky for some, I guess - although I presume that govt departments get a favourable price for travel so maybe it's not so expensive?

The comment about govt travel very interesting and the reason even more so. I have just attending 3 conferences in the US(on my own account). It has prob cost $50t. Not one other kiwi there. The theme? Actual real live energy transition to 2050, electric aircraft development, and EV related innovation. Yesterday I listened to 4 PhDs or students towards employed by NASA amongst other seminars. Earlier in the week I heard transition thoughts. I spoke to a guy that is GMs internal product owner of AI who I had lunch with. Get the picture? Anyway what blows me away is I was the only Kiwi at any of this. Where was anyone from Govt? Where was Air NZ? I am not going to share my thoughts on what I found but some of you guys know what I have been doing. I am going to use this to direct my investment and that of my current and future partners. I have always got value out of these conferences going back to when I was a fund manager(only one from NZ again) back pre GFC. Good luck everyone. PS don't believe what you read about the above stuff in the media. They have absolutely no idea.

[Valuegrowth]

ok https://milfordasset.com/insights/air-nz-privatisation-has-paid-off-for-taxpayers

.35 would be interesting any takers for .25

Any reason why it dropped to .54 almost right issue price. What do you think about their high level of debt, and volatility in share prices? When can they achieve profitability? Thanks in advance.

[mikelee]

Let's hope on Christoper Luxon's watch NZ will do better.:D

[Valuegrowth]

Most probably, turnaround in airline industries can be expected only in 2024.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/469381/opinion-flying-out-of-nz-be-prepared-for-cancellations-lost-baggage-and-queues

[Maxtrade]

1. Who on this thread feels SP will drop back down to 0.53 again?
2. Who feels that dip to 0.53 was the low and will slowly recover from now?
3. Who feels a second bounce off 0.53 will then establish a bottom end trough to then rally a slow recovery rally off?
4. Who feels the low hasn't yet been touched upon?

[ordop]

Maxtrade, I'm not a fan of AIR from an investment point of view and so I'd say 4. The low hasn't been touched on yet. The only problem is that I may be confusing inevitability with imminence. With their high cost structure and increasing fuel costs I can't see demand translating into increased profitability anytime soon. They may well need more capital before Dec 2023. But who knows, short term Biden might say that the US love the Iranians now and there's nothing better than Iranian crude to solve oil demand! It is apparent that AIR have a loyal fan base which may help the share price glide lower over time instead of more rapid declines.

[Valuegrowth]

1. Who on this thread feels SP will drop back down to 0.53 again?
2. Who feels that dip to 0.53 was the low and will slowly recover from now?
3. Who feels a second bounce off 0.53 will then establish a bottom end trough to then rally a slow recovery rally off?
4. Who feels the low hasn't yet been touched upon?
Very difficult to answer. Probably, I may have answers in 2023.

[Waltzing]

hard deck bounce....

CAP EX on the big revamp... those cabins look good but will they go all the way to CPH (Copenhaven) or just LAX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdHBsWXaHN8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46rnghQxjxk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMbbg0k4Xeo

[Dassets]

I had to laugh. The big Idea is bunk beds ?? What a dud.

[samjaynz]

I had to laugh. The big Idea is bunk beds ?? What a dud.

You mean you don't fancy waiting your turn for some sweaty sleep pod?

Also how long until the first customer refuses to get out of the pod at the end of their allocated slot and causes some kind of mid air bust-up?

Some of the cabin upgrades look nice; I'd be interested to try this extra space economy lark as I really don't mind slumming it in hoi polloi class to save my $$$ but do miss being able to stretch my legs.

However, short of the sleep pod there doesn't appear to be much here that other airlines haven't already done yonks ago?

[mikelee]

Having 7 classes is just an overkill imo. It's like my BMW having so many ways to personalise the ride and drive, with barely any noticeable differences. All the extra complications will likely result in customer complaints and costly maintenance, as we all know that electric seats are never as reliable as mechanical lever controls. The sleeping pod idea was a good effort to make lie flat affordable to the passengers in the back, but absolutely not the best use of scarce capitals and limited spaces on a plane. I've a far simpler solution that involves zero additional investment and takes up no additional spaces, but will obviously not give it away for free lol. On top of likely problem getting people out of the pod crew might even have to manage complains about bad odours from previous occupant. I'm guessing the crew will replace the bedding each time but this could just end up distracting them from their main job, which is to feed and water the passengers LOL.

[nztx]

I had to laugh. The big Idea is bunk beds ?? What a dud.


Are they hanging them out off each wing to get the max number in or building an additional
deck above able to house everyone horizontally ? ;)

Did someone from the Beehive get involved in the planning processes at huge cost ? ;)

[Bobdn]

Google says that Air is down 92 per cent since 7 January 2000. I wonder if dividends over this period have offset the capital loss? (Joke).

Is it possible to own airlines for the long haul (pun?) and make money?

[nztx]

Google says that Air is down 92 per cent since 7 January 2000. I wonder if dividends over this period have offset the capital loss? (Joke).

Is it possible to own airlines for the long haul (pun?) and make money?



Only if you are a shareholder by the name of G-O-V-T with unlimited levels of OPM available
to pick up the pieces and refloat off to the unfortunate retail investors in better times :)

[SPC]

With the taxpayer tipping in so much money you'd think the Prime Minister might lower herself slightly and fly with the great unwashed on scheduled ANZ flights rather than travelling in a largely empty 757, like recent trips to Au and Queenstown I witnessed.
And let us not forget the carbon footprint left behind despite her self-confessed 'generational nuclear free moment' idealogical burp.

[biker]

1. Who on this thread feels SP will drop back down to 0.53 again?
2. Who feels that dip to 0.53 was the low and will slowly recover from now?
3. Who feels a second bounce off 0.53 will then establish a bottom end trough to then rally a slow recovery rally off?
4. Who feels the low hasn't yet been touched upon?

I think we’ve seen the lows. Happy to have bought more at 54c. Don’t think we’ll see that price again. However, now holding quite a few so I’m biased.

[BlackPeter]

I think we’ve seen the lows. Happy to have bought more at 54c. Don’t think we’ll see that price again. However, now holding quite a few so I’m biased.

Huge flight disruptions in the US as well as in Europe thanks to a combination of rapidly increased demand and big staff shortages caused by Covid redundancies plus now Omicron blowing through the skeleton staff still around.

Just wondering whether this mess (thousands of daily flights cancelled) will be good or bad for the carriers ... and whether this might impact Air New Zealand as well?

I suppose the period of uncertainty might still hang around for a while - and uncertainty is rarely good news for investments.

[Maxtrade]

I think we’ve seen the lows. Happy to have bought more at 54c. Don’t think we’ll see that price again. However, now holding quite a few so I’m biased.

Looking that way currently from this relief rally. However more likely will see a double bounce. Next bit of poor global news will resend to test if 0.53 can hold again

[Onemootpoint]

CNBC devoted a fairly prominent article to the lie down pods today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/03/air-new-zealand-beds-in-economy-class-on-airplanes-by-2024.html

[Maxtrade]

Looking that way currently from this relief rally. However more likely will see a double bounce. Next bit of poor global news will resend to test if 0.53 can hold again

To put it in perspective and remind us all AIR NZ has Billions of dollars of debt, ever increase operating costs, elevated ticket prices which will affect continued travel, a global fuel crisis to contend with, yet punters still somehow hold onto this presumption that the company is a good investment and will somehow magically be profitable in the near future. The SP should, and likely will after a relief rally retracement, meander around the CR 0.53 at best. At least until the books can see some light at the end of what is still currently a very long dark tunnel. Opening of boarders is not the magic cure at this point. Be cautious and prepared for a relief rally to fail and 0.53 to be retested. Buying in on FOMO seeing a small run up catches those snoozing when profits are taken off the table by larger volume traders sending it spiralling back down again. Then repeat the process and they double their gains on the second run up again.See it often. Still huge issues the Airline faces. But hey jump on board and take a nap in the new sleep pods, to distract us from the real problems AIR is facing. Surprised those that are willing to throw their money in already on this minor relief rally currently. Optimism in a negative market, with rocketing interest, inflation and cost of living. Yet somehow people will simply be able too afford air tickets at double the cost. Doesn't make much sense does it.

[biker]

To put it in perspective and remind us all AIR NZ has Billions of dollars of debt, ever increase operating costs, elevated ticket prices which will affect continued travel, a global fuel crisis to contend with, yet punters still somehow hold onto this presumption that the company is a good investment and will somehow magically be profitable in the near future. The SP should, and likely will after a relief rally retracement, meander around the CR 0.53 at best. At least until the books can see some light at the end of what is still currently a very long dark tunnel. Opening of boarders is not the magic cure at this point. Be cautious and prepared for a relief rally to fail and 0.53 to be retested. Buying in on FOMO seeing a small run up catches those snoozing when profits are taken off the table by larger volume traders sending it spiralling back down again. Then repeat the process and they double their gains on the second run up again.See it often. Still huge issues the Airline faces. But hey jump on board and take a nap in the new sleep pods, to distract us from the real problems AIR is facing. Surprised those that are willing to throw their money in already on this minor relief rally currently. Optimism in a negative market, with rocketing interest, inflation and cost of living. Yet somehow people will simply be able too afford air tickets at double the cost. Doesn't make much sense does it.

Totally disagree with most of that.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Stuff headline:Families told to 'find a couch' at Christchurch airport overnight after Qantas flight diverts.

Is Robertson Airlines still the Christchurch ground handling contractor for Queer And NassTy airlinS? If so is this symptomatic of the organizational stumbling we can expect as the airline tries to get back into action?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[biker]

Stuff headline:Families told to 'find a couch' at Christchurch airport overnight after Qantas flight diverts.

Is Robertson Airlines still the Christchurch ground handling contractor for Queer And NassTy airlinS? If so is this symptomatic of the organizational stumbling we can expect as the airline tries to get back into action?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Jeez MM, you can’t blame Qantas incompetence on Air NZ

[Marilyn Munroe]

Jeez MM, you can’t blame Qantas incompetence on Air NZ

AirNZ used to be the ground handling agent for QANTAS in Christchurch, they possibly still are.

A common practice in the airline industry is to give the ground handling agent a fixed sum for arranging accommodation, with the agent allowed to trouser any of this money not spent. This creates an incentive for the ground handling agent to minimize the cost.

My post on this subject was speculation, however it is not beyond the bounds of reason that it was Robertson Airlines responsibility to arrange accommodation for the tired and weary travelers which they failed to do.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[biker]

AirNZ used to be the ground handling agent for QANTAS in Christchurch, they possibly still are.

A common practice in the airline industry is to give the ground handling agent a fixed sum for arranging accommodation, with the agent allowed to trouser any of this money not spent. This creates an incentive for the ground handling agent to minimize the cost.

My post on this subject was speculation, however it is not beyond the bounds of reason that it was Robertson Airlines responsibility to arrange accommodation for the tired and weary travelers which they failed to do.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

We can all speculate on all sorts of things but I don’t for a moment believe this was anything to do with Air NZ.
My speculation is that it wasn’t.

[biker]

Share price rising on good volume. 20% up from it’s lows. Only another 5% to get back to where Foran invested a million bucks. Oil price falling. What’s not to like.

[Maxtrade]

Share price rising on good volume. 20% up from it’s lows. Only another 5% to get back to where Foran invested a million bucks. Oil price falling. What’s not to like.

?
Looking like it's been tracking back down to 0.60 ?

[biker]

?
Looking like it's been tracking back down to 0.60 ?

Foran just invested another 1 1/2 mill dollars at 56 & 57c.
So recently $2.5 million invested. More than a gesture I would have thought.

[Rawz]

Foran just invested another 1 1/2 mill dollars at 56 & 57c.
So recently $2.5 million invested. More than a gesture I would have thought.

Thats certainly backing your own horse. Well done Foran. Should give shareholders heaps of confidence

[Rawz]

Might have to put AIR back on the watchlist... dont think i have ever seen a CEO buy on market $1.5m??
What a great endorsement

[Sideshow Bob]

Can't exactly say he's not invested......good on him.

[sb9]

Might have to put AIR back on the watchlist... dont think i have ever seen a CEO buy on market $1.5m??
What a great endorsement

Solid endorsement by CEO, don't remember any previous CEO of AIR buying on market, they all got performance options/shares.

Worth a punt if it drops below 60c mark imo.

[Maxtrade]

Solid endorsement by CEO, don't remember any previous CEO of AIR buying on market, they all got performance options/shares.

Worth a punt if it drops below 60c mark imo.

Would have been nice to see recent upwards trend continue. But was short lived and now lost 25% of its recent 20% gains down from 0.645. Seemingly market sentiment not following Foran's backing? The recent rally lost wind in the sails pretty quickly. Will need another puff to keep things heading in the right direction or the tide will keep dragging the ship backwards. Where did the recent buy demand go?

[Waltzing]

lets face it the only way to fly back to europe next year and get a decent nights sleep is to fly the A380..

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/a380-superjumbo-comeback/index.html

[BlackPeter]

lets face it the only way to fly back to europe next year and get a decent nights sleep is to fly the A380..

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/a380-superjumbo-comeback/index.html

I prefer to fly Singapore and stay there for a night or two ... shortest flying time and a great place to relax.

[Waltzing]

Yes and of course there is now Jewel to visit but Business class to copenhagen at the moment is about 4 grand more expensive that direction at the moment?

hopefully a bit cheaper next year.

[BlackPeter]

Yes and of course there is now Jewel to visit but Business class to copenhagen at the moment is about 4 grand more expensive that direction at the moment?

hopefully a bit cheaper next year.

Fair enough ... and that flight is clearly not on my radarscreen. Been in Copenhagen once or twice, but never had to use the plane ...

[Vitamin_A]

Best buy signal ever is the CEO buying stock.

[biker]

Would have been nice to see recent upwards trend continue. But was short lived and now lost 25% of its recent 20% gains down from 0.645. Seemingly market sentiment not following Foran's backing? The recent rally lost wind in the sails pretty quickly. Will need another puff to keep things heading in the right direction or the tide will keep dragging the ship backwards. Where did the recent buy demand go?

There it is - closed up .5c at 63c

3,383,568 $2,130,381 vwap 63c

Going well

[biker]

Best buy signal ever is the CEO buying stock.

And lots of it. Totally agree.

[Poolboy]

Best buy signal ever is the CEO buying stock.

Good. He can buy mine. In fact, he can have them for what I paid for them.

[SCOTTY]

Best buy signal ever is the CEO buying stock.

The CEO is still pretty new to the airline industry. Quite different to retailing :)

[biker]

The CEO is still pretty new to the airline industry. Quite different to retailing :)

So was Luxon. Drove the Company to record profits. Not bad for a soap salesman.
And now Foran is driving an overall leaner, meaner, more efficient machine.

[Charlie]

.................................................. ........................

[BlackPeter]

.................................................. ........................

.- .-. . / -.-- --- ..- / ... ..- .-. . ..--..

[winner69]

.- .-. . / -.-- --- ..- / ... ..- .-. . ..--..

Charlie's post was pretty good ... your reply even more so

[Dassets]

.- .-. . / -.-- --- ..- / ... ..- .-. . ..--..

How can anybody be?

[Maxtrade]

?
Looking like it's been tracking back down to 0.60

Thoughts now guys? As per my previous comments in thread now at 0.60.. Where to from here, 0.60 hold or breaking back down to 0.53 for second cat bounce.

[stoploss]

I can't see how they would be making any money with all these flight disruptions and having to put people up in Hotels overnight.
International travel still looks to be problematic .....No prospect of a dividend for years , there has to be something better to invest in .
DISC: No position held either long or short.

[winner69]

Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while

June report makes miserable reading

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf

[Jaa]

Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while

June report makes miserable reading

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf

What a bizarre and backwards looking way to read the report :confused:

June passenger numbers were up 18% overall and passenger revenue kms up even more at 33%. Most importantly overall load factor is 87.7%, the highest I have seen it in 20 years of watching off and on.

In June Air NZ was still scaling back up. The unsustainably high load factor shows they failed to do this fast enough especially across the Tasman and to the US.

Remember NZ only stopped breaking the law and let back in our own people a few months ago and many families were still blocked from re-uniting until a few days ago. Pre-flight tests were also still required in June. Still loads of pent up demand.

The money maker LAX route increasing to 17x weekly from Aug 15 shows the direction of travel.

[biker]

Share price firming nicely on reasonable volume. Looking for more traction leading up to the results in a couple of weeks then back to book-build price and beyond.
Disc: Hold a lot so I’m biased.

[Vitamin_A]

No company has as much operating leverage as an airline. We've seen the impact of it working in reverse. It kills the business almost overnight if passenger numbers fall. But, now we are seeing the operating leverage across both short and long haul working in the right direction. As long as China doesn't do anything silly with Taiwan, AIR will be making profits across it's network.

[Maxtrade]

Share price firming nicely on reasonable volume. Looking for more traction leading up to the results in a couple of weeks then back to book-build price and beyond.
Disc: Hold a lot so I’m biased.

Would seem thew dip down to 0.53 previously was a brief bottom and not going to fall back anywhere near the CR again as some posts were predicting back in this forum's thread.

[biker]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 67 cents, so far he has made a profit of $262,540 in less than 3 months - just over 10%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.

[BlackPeter]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 66.5 cents, so far he has made a profit of $241,900 in less than 3 months - just over 9.6%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.

It is a good sign that he believes in this company ... but lets face it - nobody, not even Greg Foran knows how travel, virus and war will play out over the years to come.

It might work out very nicely ... or it might not.

[biker]

It is a good sign that he believes in this company ... but lets face it - nobody, not even Greg Foran knows how travel, virus and war will play out over the years to come.

It might work out very nicely ... or it might not.

Yes, like any stock on the market. It’s price might go up……..or its price might go down.

[Ggcc]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 67 cents, so far he has made a profit of $262,540 in less than 3 months - just over 10%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.
Getting started by getting out of the poo it got into. Sure not by any means the companies fault. Covid and Government legislations are what will slow this companies growth.

[Sideshow Bob]

Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result

Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397579)


2022 Financial summary
• Loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million ,compared to $444 million in the prior year
• Statutory loss before taxation of $810 million
• Operating revenue lifts 9 percent to $2.7 billion, driven by Cargo performance
• Recapitalisation completed in May, raising $2.2 billion
• Liquidity of $2.3 billion as at 23 August

In a year of ongoing twists and turns, Air New Zealand has recapitalised its business and, in the last quarter, experienced greater than expected demand for travel, while managing rising costs and an ongoing pandemic.

The airline has today announced a loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million for the 2022 financial year, consistent with guidance provided to the market in June. The statutory loss before taxation was $810 million .

Although the financial year ended strongly following the phased reopening of New Zealand’s borders from March, the airline’s operating revenue of $2.7 billion was significantly impacted by pandemic related travel restrictions.

Cargo and domestic revenues helped lift overall revenue by 9 percent, however high fuel prices and reduced flying over much of the year resulted in a loss for the period.

Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran said the airline continued to be guided by a clear strategy, moving deftly to address continued change by focusing on doing the right thing for its stakeholders.

“For customers, we’ve been focused on restoring services, maintaining a choice of fares and launching innovations to improve their journey with us. For our amazing staff we have provided one-off awards to acknowledge their continued extra mahi, and for our communities we’ve been obsessed with operational performance, which drives the reliable services they depend on,” says Mr Foran.
“For our shareholders, whose support has refuelled the business for future growth, we’ve completed a successful recapitalisation that was structured to be fair to our shareholders, including those that didn’t take up the rights offer.”

Mr Foran said cargo revenue continued to be a major contributor to the company’s performance, up 32 percent to $1.0 billion. Additional flying under the New Zealand and Australian government airfreight schemes contributed $403 million of that revenue. With borders now largely reopened, the Australian scheme has ended, and the New Zealand scheme is tapering off and will cease by the end of March 2023.

Firmly in the ‘revive’ phase of the ‘survive, revive, thrive’ journey, Mr Foran says the current environment is one of strong bookings despite ongoing challenges.

When travel restrictions began to lift in March the company recorded a very strong recovery in bookings and revenues. This trend continues, with high booking levels through July and August. Corporate bookings are also encouraging and are trending closely towards pre-Covid levels.

Mr Foran referred to the airline’s mid-August schedule changes, which reduced seats by 1.5 percent through to the end of March 2023, as another example of doing the right thing for stakeholders.

“As we’ve been seeing overseas, travel demand is much stronger than anyone anticipated. But we’re operating in a very tight labour market with high fuel prices, tough economic conditions and the highest levels of employee sickness in more than a decade.
“Our rehiring efforts and training capability have been excellent, as has work to get our Boeing 777-300ER aircraft back flying again, but the experience for some of our customers and the impact on our front-line staff this winter has been unacceptable, so we’ve adapted yet again.

“Having adjusted our schedule to provide customers with increased surety over their travel plans for the coming spring and summer, I am hugely appreciative of the work the Air New Zealand whānau has done to deliver more than 25,000 flights across June and July alone.”

The airline also made investment decisions in support of its Kia Mau strategy. These include the plan to move the Auckland workforce to its airport campus, investment in a new hangar at Auckland airport and the decision to close its Gas Turbines business unit by the middle of the 2023 calendar year.

Air New Zealand Chair Dame Therese Walsh thanked Greg and the Air New Zealand team for a year in which the airline not only managed significant challenges but also introduced changes that will deliver improved services to customers and made progress on their long-term sustainability goals.

“The airline’s continued ability to step carefully through an ongoing pandemic while looking beyond the horizon is becoming a core capability. While introducing and then removing vaccination requirements for domestic travel, there have been preparations for our New York launch and the completion of designs for our new Boeing 787 Dreamliner cabin experience.

“For our AirpointsTM members there were more than 2,000 new products added to our AirpointsTM store as well as the introduction of Flexipay, so customers can enjoy even more online shopping options. I’m especially excited about our next generation app, which will give customers a more seamless travel experience when it rolls out in the coming months.
“In April we announced ‘Flight NZ0’, a programme to engage customers as we work towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. We were the second airline globally to announce an interim science-based target to 2030 and continue to make progress on sustainable aviation fuel and zero emissions aircraft technology.

“Throughout the year we have also made improvements to the pay and conditions for our people, settling 12 collective employment agreements, increasing the base pay of our front-line workers and restarting incentive payments to staff on individual employment agreements ensure we retain our dedicated team.”

Dame Therese acknowledged the support the airline has received from its shareholders over the course of a challenging two-year period.

“From the Crown loan provided in the early days of the pandemic, to the airfreight support scheme that helped us keep connected to key export markets, to the $2.2 billion recapitalisation completed in May which allowed thousands of shareholders to take part in refuelling the airline for success. We have had significant support from all our shareholders and for that we are truly grateful.”
Strong liquidity position with dividend suspended

As at 23 August 2022, the airline has available liquidity of $2.3 billion, consisting of approximately $1.9 billion in cash and $400 million of available funds on the unsecured standby loan facility with the Crown. The cash balance includes $200 million of issued redeemable shares which the airline intends to redeem once our recovery is further progressed.

The Board does not expect to consider payment of dividends before the airline’s earnings substantially recover, and in the context of a supportive and sustained broader economic environment and recovery.

Outlook for 2023

With borders now open to the majority of the airline’s markets, Air New Zealand expects the 2023 financial year to represent the first full year of uninterrupted passenger flying since the beginning of the pandemic.

Total flying capacity for the 2023 financial year is expected to be in the range of 75 percent to 80 percent of pre-Covid levels. On this basis, the airline anticipates a significant improvement in financial performance relative to financial year 2022.

Given the degree of uncertainty regarding volatility in jet fuel prices, the risk of a global recession, and other macroeconomic factors including inflationary pressures on costs, no earnings guidance will be provided at this time.

[Dassets]

But here is the gorilla in the chandelier shop. AIR has $1.1 billion of revenue in advance(current and long) as at end Dec 20. And YES the money already spent!! Guess what, that problem just gets bigger with the last bubble burst. Revenue for Aussi lock down now credit notes issued (including moi). When they come to be used no actual cash in the tin. However they still need to pay for fuel and the pilots' 6 percent proposed pay rise. Should give the pilots an IOU..... or better a UOM(you owe me). I reiterate re the cap raise.. who is going to sign that off. As a director I wouldn't.

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.

[nztx]

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.


so possibility of further sheep being taken for a ride to hoist the fusilage to a slightly more even keel ?

SP seems to have recovered a bit since the last CapRaise Wallet slaughter

Wonder how much longer and higher before the next 'empty the pockets' exercise lands ? :)

Still an amused spectator watching this airframe wreck spluttering across the skies ;)

Hopefully some of the loose debri doesn't make too much of a splash when it crashes
into a startled peacefully sleeping Robbo's soup bowl in front of him ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.

Dassets, whats your take on the cargo numbers and what will happen going forward? Up 32% to $1b but 40% of their income is the Govt scheme which is going to taper off in the next 6-7 months.

Will AIr NZ lose out once other operators start back flying into NZ with more capacity??

[Recaster]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-air-new-zealand-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

[BlackPeter]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-air-new-zealand-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

Hmm.

It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.

It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?

Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.

I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:

1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?

2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?

I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.

Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise :) ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.

[biker]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-air-new-zealand-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

“ Buy when there’s blood in the streets “

Most of us here on this forum are in the business of looking for opportunities to increase our wealth by way of the share market.

Like it or loathe it as a company, the AIR share price has always been cyclical.

If you had bought AIR when everything looked hopeless, and the share price was at a low ebb ( not necessarily it’s low) and sold when it had recovered significantly, (not necessarily at its high) there was money to be made. I have done this and it has been profitable.

It has however required time and patience, and as stated, reasonable timing.

I have started that process again recently.

DISC: I hold quite a few so I’m biased, I am not risk averse, and this is not advice.

[Recaster]

Hmm.

It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.

It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?

Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.

I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:

1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?

2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?

I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.

Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise :) ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.

Thanks for your very constructive reply. Great points, well made and appreciated.

I apologise that I went over the top on this company. It was unprofessional. You're right, it's very emotional.

As regards the two important questions you raise on 2) I think the surprise will be on the downside. Don't think travel will recover quickly if ever to the pre-Covid levels and 1) is dependent on 2) and don't think there's the capital in the company to endure a soft ramp-up.

Thanks again.

(Don't like to be pedantic but it's advice not advise).

[Dassets]

Dassets, whats your take on the cargo numbers and what will happen going forward? Up 32% to $1b but 40% of their income is the Govt scheme which is going to taper off in the next 6-7 months.

Will AIr NZ lose out once other operators start back flying into NZ with more capacity??

That is a hard one. I think looking at the pax numbers and Auckland Airports that we will struggle to get a full recovery so we may not see the same operators and schedules. Long haul, and we are long, is problematic for some people. Carbon cost of flights is becoming a thing that drives where (some) people go. I think that european to NZ/Aust tradition could be paired back with maybe Aussi surviving with an Asian add on.

The freight is really interesting. It is pretty obvious we have a big issue in terms of vulnerability of key trade to transport disruption. On seafreight we appear to be losing schedule. For airfreight I believe the system we had has been shown to be flawed. Maybe AIRNZ/Govt has to think about a dedicated freight operation ie freight planes with a Pacific mandate focused on Aust/China/Japan. I mean what if Taiwan kicks off, we lose our belly space on pax aircraft for how long through Asia? Or SARS or or etc. And while we are at it maybe we need sea vessels that we can influence, hey Crazee Robo's Container-2-u Services. We need to bring in 8 ship loads of bitumen a year to put on our roads since Marsden Point no longer produces ir(as a by-product). What happens if we don't? We have big problem. Liquid fuels transport, critical to the economy so why don't we harden(protect) that capability. We actually have to, imo, secure our lines of communication(army slang for logistics routes) with the current state of affairs and the time to build ships. I welcome comment on those bombshells!!

[iceman]

Thanks for your very constructive reply. Great points, well made and appreciated.

I apologise that I went over the top on this company. It was unprofessional. You're right, it's very emotional.

As regards the two important questions you raise on 2) I think the surprise will be on the downside. Don't think travel will recover quickly if ever to the pre-Covid levels and 1) is dependent on 2) and don't think there's the capital in the company to endure a soft ramp-up.

Thanks again.

(Don't like to be pedantic but it's advice not advise).

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

[SCOTTY]

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

Thanks Iceman and Recaster. Sadly you are both absolutely spot on with your observations.

[Recaster]

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

I was mainly referring to AIR and the asia-pacific. Don't know much about Europe.

An article today might be of interest:

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/09/04/tourism-down-90-for-asia-pacific-slow-visitor-growth-expected/?fbclid=IwAR0BFuPv9WQlGyU7-5_3L-ThaamUaw-h4MV4cdTcwyD4GtcPGXmnS3uuBVU

At present I'm in Asia and in the country I'm in things are pretty dire. Many are having trouble meeting costs of day-to-day living. Violence on the rise.

Another issue is climate change. That's been explored ad infinitum.

As regards AIR demand is strong for a while. It's hard to ramp up supply. The demand is a balloon I think. Will fall later. AIR cancelling flights for various reasons.

Domestically the middle and lower classes are caught in an inflationary squeeze. Much travel is discretionary.

Some people are doing business differently without travelling to meet.

I believe the true horror of what the pharmaceutical and medical people have done to the general public with the Covid vaccines is slowly emerging. Ergo significant illness coming (only an opinion mind you).

Lastly, something odd is happening with energy. Just a feeling which followed Macron's recent comments on the 'end of abundance' made recently.

[BlackPeter]

...

I believe the true horror of what the pharmaceutical and medical people have done to the general public with the Covid vaccines is slowly emerging. Ergo significant illness coming (only an opinion mind you).

...

Sad ... and I realise that (pseudo-)religious believes are always personal, never rational and always non-sensical to anybody but for the elected few who believe them.

Still - do we need to spread this nonsense really across the AIR thread?

Facts please (and in the appropriate thread) instead of a faith based undermining tactic.

[Recaster]

Sad ... and I realise that (pseudo-)religious believes are always personal, never rational and always non-sensical to anybody but for the elected few who believe them.

Still - do we need to spread this nonsense really across the AIR thread?

Facts please (and in the appropriate thread) instead of a faith based undermining tactic.

Some facts:

https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196

[777]

Some facts:

https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196

Put it on the coronavirus thread where those that are interested can choose to read it.

[Recaster]

No, it's part of a list of things that can potentially impact AIR (and other businesses) which is why I mentioned it in response to a question. Sorry if I ruffled some feathers.

[Jaa]

Adding an Asian perspective, Singapore is reopening Terminal 4 in a week. Despite China and Japan still being closed or partially closed. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have all reopened and their long restricted populations are itching to travel.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/changi-airport-terminal-4-reopen-sep-13-airlines-move-october-2828886

Singapore have also removed mask requirements for Changi and onboard flights from the island. I think an airport is the place one would most want to though!
https://www.traveldailymedia.com/no-masks-required-for-singapore-airlines/

[Sideshow Bob]

More feel good......

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129878719/air-new-zealand-to-fly-on-sustainable-aviation-fuel-from-next-week

[BlackPeter]

More feel good......

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129878719/air-new-zealand-to-fly-on-sustainable-aviation-fuel-from-next-week


Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) imports would account for about 1% of the total fuel purchased this year by Air New Zealand, he said.

LOL - 1% sustainable !!!! 1% down, 99% to go. Feels great, though wondering, whether they considered the additional CO2 pollution to import that stuff ... might be actually less than 1%!

[causecelebre]

More feel good......

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129878719/air-new-zealand-to-fly-on-sustainable-aviation-fuel-from-next-week

Yet more green washing by the worst proponent of it in NZ. SAF is 2x - 4x the cost of jet fuel. Makes for a nice headline

[whatsup]

AIR ann in ASX their response to media spectulation that they have not been approached for a merger !

[Marilyn Munroe]

AIR ann in ASX their response to media spectulation that they have not been approached for a merger !

Who could it be?

Crazy conspiracy theory; Why haven't the spreadsheet jockeys at Bain restarted Virgin(under arm bowlers division) flights across the ditch? Could it be they want to side step competition reduction issues if they were to take over Robertson Airlines?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[biker]

Large volume went through at the close. Share price closed at 69.5c up 3.7% VWAP 69c with over 4.3 million shares crossed for the day. Going well.

[BlackPeter]

Large volume went through at the close. Share price closed at 69.5c up 3.7% VWAP 69c with over 4.3 million shares crossed for the day. Going well.

Index rebalance day? It was the third Friday at the last month of the quarter ...

[Rawz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399195

The CEO Greg Foran is going to be rich(er)!!! He must have made half a mill capital gain already on his purchases?

Air New Zealand has continued to see strong forward sales over the first three months of the financial year, particularly for travel through to January 2023 and continues to operate approximately 70 percent of FY19 capacity. On the basis that this forward sales strength continues over the coming quarter, with similar capacity and assuming an average jet fuel price of approximately US $130/bbl, the airline currently expects earnings before taxation and other significant items for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $200 million to $275 million.
The airline notes that fuel prices remain highly volatile and that this is one of many factors that have the potential to slow our recovery and significantly impact earnings. Additionally, demand in the second half of the financial year remains highly uncertain.
On this basis and taking into account global recessionary risks and other macroeconomic factors including inflationary pressures on costs, the airline is not providing full year guidance at this time. The airline strongly cautions against extrapolating first half FY23 earnings guidance to the full year given the many uncertainties in the trading environment.

[causecelebre]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399195

The CEO Greg Foran is going to be rich(er)!!! He must have made half a mill capital gain already on his purchases?

And of course his remunerative "at risk", i.e. stock, is based on the performance of AIR relative to the international airline market

[Grimy]

I received an email from them yesterday saying the time to use flight credits has been pushed out another year - book by 31/01/2024, fly by 31/12/2024.
The wife says I'll be booking tickets well before then.........

[causecelebre]

I received an email from them yesterday saying the time to use flight credits has been pushed out another year - book by 31/01/2024, fly by 31/12/2024.
The wife says I'll be booking tickets well before then.........

Jetstar similarly a week ago or so

[biker]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399195

The CEO Greg Foran is going to be rich(er)!!! ……………….

He may not be the only one.

[ordop]

Biker, congrats on picking this one up and running with it. Looking back a few pages, you've been a keen supporter of it as a cyclical stock even when quite a few were bagging it. As you say, being prepared to take on a bit of risk and increase ones wealth via the sharemarket. 37% return on at least some of your purchases in 2 months (54cps - 74cps)!! Well done for following your conviction.

[Vitamin_A]

I have just come back from the US and then a domestic flight with AIR. We were packed in like sardines on all four sectors. Particularly the long haul with nearly 300 pax there was not one seat available. Even AKL-WLG was completely full. I thought at the time, AIR must be making a fortune.

[Dassets]

Don't forget the $185m of MIAC for 2023 and that more than 100% of the earnings are non-cash, ie credit usage. MIAC finishes June 2023 and won't be extended.