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rmbbrave
19-09-2004, 10:02 PM
Has Air NZ clawed it's way back into consideration?

From the Herald article "Flying high from a hospital pass" Sept 19 2004

Question from Herald hack, CHRIS DANIELS.

(Are you) surprised at the quick turnaround? The sheer speed of the recovery?

Answer from JOHN PALMER chairman of Air New Zealand.

"To be honest, yes. To think we could have made the sort of progress in 2 1/2 years that we have made is not something I would have been betting on at the time."

AIR NZ plans to pay 25-35% of profits (this year $166m) as a dividend in 2005.

Is AIR NZ worth buying?

marinesalvor
20-09-2004, 06:06 AM
certainly a pretty unique airline in the world business - making money and working to change the airline's outdated culture. Norris has done a good job injecting new blood... is it worth a buy?? well - it was a better play before the rationalisation

Snow Leopard
20-09-2004, 06:28 AM
rmbbrave, you would be a braver person than I to risk your money on Air New Zealand.

marinesalvor
20-09-2004, 08:03 AM
Trading halt.... hmmm

Placebo
20-09-2004, 10:08 AM
They've just done a deal with Rolls Royce to service their (RR's) engines. Confirms ongoing revenue.

Trading halt due to expected announcement of High Court decision on Qantas/Air NZ merger.

A red letter day for Air?

20-09-2004, 10:26 AM
THE KING says even as a shareholder of Virgin Air flying back to Wellington 6 Oct on QANTAS because of price they beat AIRNZ, But today when you fly you must shop around on internet for best price and it changes by the Day and even by the HOUR.. [^]

rmbbrave
20-09-2004, 12:05 PM
I have always though Air NZ is a company that could be competitive internationally because planes, fuel and landing fees cost all airlines pretty much the same. However, wages vary from country to country. NZ has the lowest wages in the OECD meaning AIR NZ should be more competitve than American, European, Aussie and some Asian based Airlines airlines at least.

There are disadvantages of course, one being that NZ is at the end of a line. The other was an over-adventurist management with delusions of grandeur that led to the Ansett disaster. Lets hope the management have learnt their lesson.

However they may not have - as they are still squandering time and money persuing a Quantas merger which all (except Quantas and Air NZ) know is anti-competitive.

marinesalvor
20-09-2004, 12:40 PM
so its a no from the Court - I guess noone really factored on a reversal

Placebo
20-09-2004, 12:41 PM
Different forum... same outcome

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storyprint.cfm?storyID=3592940

Placebo
20-09-2004, 12:44 PM
Different forum... same outcome

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storyprint.cfm?storyID=3592940

Wiremu
20-09-2004, 06:48 PM
rmbbrave

Have to disagree about the delusions of grandeur comment that led to the Ansett disaster.

The history is quite different, and it is more about a NZ company being screwed by politicians in Australia. One minute they had an open-skys policy; the next they didn't.

Under the conditions of the time what Air New Zealand where trying to do was sound strategy.

We can all get it right with the benefit and accuracy of hindsight.

fundir
21-09-2004, 07:42 AM
20m brought them the 2 years required to recover, rather than have Qantas finish them off. Probably 20m well spent......

21-09-2004, 05:50 PM
THE KING says when the stock hite $1 ,, Buy till your pants fall off..[V][V][V]

fundir
21-09-2004, 06:02 PM
Well the upcoming rights issue might give you cheap entry. I suspect it will be renoucable, tradable and the govt will take to oportunity to reduce it's holding...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3039709a13,00.html

Longtack
21-09-2004, 07:12 PM
For you techies - Air NZ has support @ around $1.80 (todays close.)

Footsie
22-09-2004, 02:46 AM
Surely at pre-consolidation price of 36c (180)
its worth looking at more closely.

I guess ppl are just waiting till after the rights issue

sharebattler
22-09-2004, 07:03 AM
Lingering doubts weigh on Air NZ share price

22.09.2004
By CHRIS DANIELS
A looming rights issue and few clues on future profits are not likely to help the sharemarket regain confidence in Air New Zealand following the demise of its attempted alliance with Qantas.

The airline's shares dropped 4c to $1.86 yesterday, the first full day's trading since the High Court at Auckland rejected its appeal against the Commerce Commission's rejection of the deal.

Both airlines say that although they cannot join forces as they had hoped, they will work on new ways of cooperating.

The prospect of a "doomsday scenario", where Qantas would destroy Air NZ, has now diminished and Air NZ's financial health has improved in the two years it has been arguing for the deal.

Stephen Walker, of Walker Capital Management, which has previously invested in Air NZ but now owns none of its shares, said he thought the airline was over-valued - worth around $1.30 rather than $1.80.

"We can see absolutely no value in Air NZ at the moment," he said. "The present share price assumes it's going to earn good returns on capital and continue to do so for some time - which are at odds with what we expect and at odds with what Air NZ has been telling the Commerce Commission for some time."

Peter Sigley, airline analyst at Goldman Sachs JB Were, said the single biggest outcome for Air NZ was that this "disaster scenario" of Qantas destroying it was now gone.

Genuine opportunities for co-operation would exist, and would save costs without attracting the ire of competition regulators.

Now the alliance is buried, Air NZ is likely to activate its longstanding plans for a rights issue, expected to raise up to $200 million, with up to $150 million underwritten by the Government.

Details of this issue could be announced at next month's annual shareholders meeting.

Sigley said the Air NZ share price was cheap, but assurance was needed for future earnings.

thereslifeafter87
22-09-2004, 11:29 AM
Did I miss something? Did AIR have a share consolidation?

Snow Leopard
22-09-2004, 11:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

Did I miss something? Did AIR have a share consolidation?



At the end of trade on 23 august 2004 a 5:1 share consoldation took place. It was announced in advance and several posts on ST mentioned it before hand.

Welcome back to the present ;)

thereslifeafter87
22-09-2004, 05:43 PM
Paper tiger,
sorry for sounding stupid, its just I don't generally follow inferior companies with large market caps operating in commodity industries :-).

Interesting to see the capital growth gained from AIR over the last year or so :-) hmmmmmmmm equivalent pre consolidation SP of about 36 cents. How many people showing positive returns on AIR? weren't they trading at about 50 cents a little while ago?

When will people learn that small is beautiful, and that it is never a good idea to invest in airlines? :-)

badger
22-09-2004, 05:52 PM
Don't touch it until it gets carved to pieces by a rights issue, which it will . It should present a great oppurtunity during rights trading. It went through a similar phase in the early 90's and it was a very profitable exercise.

Snow Leopard
22-09-2004, 07:13 PM
I have said it before and I will say it again [in differt words].

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low.

wsheridan
05-10-2004, 09:03 AM
So Singapore selling out.... and a book build that will see institutions sell out over time, no doubt.

Can't really see this as good for the company especially as Singapore/Qantas now going to be stronger.... still, we have gotten close to the ragheads at Emirates [:0]

sharebattler
05-10-2004, 10:16 AM
Air New Zealand has requested a trading halt in its share trading after Singapore Airlines said it was selling its 6.5 per cent stake in the Government-controlled airline by way of a bookbuild tender.

The trading halt will remain in place until 10am Wednesday or earlier if the bookbuild is completed sooner. So-called bookbuilds allow financial institutions to bid for quantities of stock at different prices before a final price is set based on the bids.

Air NZ shares closed on Monday at $1.68, having trading between $1.64 and $2.70 in the last year, adjusting for the share consolidation.

Singapore (SIA) has had an extremely bumpy ride on Air NZ's share register and at the time of Air NZ's virtual collapse in September 2001, it owned a quarter of the company. It was mainly interested in Air NZ's stake in then Australian number two airline Ansett Australia, but that airline's collapse in 2001 precipitated big problems at the parent airline. SIA lost hundreds of millions of dollars on its investment as its stake in Air NZ was reduced to 5.5 per cent from 25 per cent by the Government's $885 million bailout in 2001.

SIA may still be keen on exposure to Australia and the decision of British Airways to sell its 18.25 per cent stake in Qantas may be the opening the giant Singapore airline may be wanting. Air NZ is seen as less attractive to SIA, with regulators and courts rejecting an alliance between Qantas and Air NZ, whereby Qantas would have owned 22.5 per cent of Air NZ

05-10-2004, 10:55 AM
THE KING says this is not a GOOD sign for AIR not many large shareholders left to hold up the price , But what was noted that inside trading in NZ is live and well see how the s/price fell so fast to $1.64 for NO reason untill now thats how it WORKS.. [^]

blackcap
05-10-2004, 12:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says this is not a GOOD sign for AIR not many large shareholders left to hold up the price , But what was noted that inside trading in NZ is live and well see how the s/price fell so fast to $1.64 for NO reason untill now thats how it WORKS.. [^]


:) You gotta wonder sometimes dont ya.

Steve
05-10-2004, 02:26 PM
Who thinks that the shareprice will be back below $1 by christmas???

Placebo
05-10-2004, 03:39 PM
Here's another cloud on the horizon. AIR are one of only 2 confirmed buyers for the new Boeing 7E7. Airbus has now announced it will produce a rival 250-seat twin-aisle widebody based on its existing A330. Boeing is doing its best to shoot it down. The question is, will AIR be left with a dud on its hands?

Morpheus
05-10-2004, 04:29 PM
Hey Placebo,
do you have a link for a story about the new Airbus plane? Not that I'm a plane spotter or anything. Just interested.
Thanks,
Morpheus

KiwiBear
05-10-2004, 05:25 PM
Hi Morpheus
Here is the link for your info. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3597294

blackcap
05-10-2004, 08:24 PM
So what do other punters think the book build price will be and will it be worth picking some up at around that price.

I reackon it could be as low at $1.55 but not too sure.

Bling_Bling
06-10-2004, 08:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by blackcap

So what do other punters think the book build price will be and will it be worth picking some up at around that price.

I reackon it could be as low at $1.55 but not too sure.


Rather put my money in the bank.

Placebo
06-10-2004, 09:23 AM
quote:Not that I'm a plane spotter or anything.

I am an unreconstructed plane spotter. When I went overseas with my family as a kid, they all came back with pictures of bridges and castles and people and places... I came back with pictures of aircraft and airports

Sad I know...

Placebo
06-10-2004, 09:27 AM
quote:Not that I'm a plane spotter or anything.

I am an unreconstructed plane spotter. When I went overseas with my family as a kid, they all came back with pictures of bridges and castles and people and places... I came back with pictures of aircraft and airports

Sad I know...

Edited to add: That don't mean I'd ever want to buy one!

biker
06-10-2004, 10:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Here's another cloud on the horizon. AIR are one of only 2 confirmed buyers for the new Boeing 7E7. Airbus has now announced it will produce a rival 250-seat twin-aisle widebody based on its existing A330. Boeing is doing its best to shoot it down. The question is, will AIR be left with a dud on its hands?

When did Boeing last make a dud?

mikescott
06-10-2004, 10:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by biker


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Here's another cloud on the horizon. AIR are one of only 2 confirmed buyers for the new Boeing 7E7. Airbus has now announced it will produce a rival 250-seat twin-aisle widebody based on its existing A330. Boeing is doing its best to shoot it down. The question is, will AIR be left with a dud on its hands?

When did Boeing last make a dud?


Try the 747 SP which was bought by Qantas amongst other airlines and had to be discontinued. Also, the 757.

But the 7E7 will be a big success as the fuel efficiency (15% lower fuel usage) and cabin layout will allow for greater frequency of flights allowing for flexibility and higher load factors.

Placebo
06-10-2004, 10:57 AM
...add the 737 business jet. But I agree, most of their products have been incredibly successful. Has anyone here never been on a Boeing aircraft?

My comment about the 7E7 potentially being a dud are around what happens in creating a new market sector, then finding others have got their noses in front and pinched it off you. This can potentially lead to a lower production run and higher maintenance costs for operators. The Lockheed L10-11 is a classic example of this. A widebody tri-jet lost out heavily to DC-10 and 747. Airbus coming into the sector with their option is something Boeing clearly hadn't considered. They are clearly worried about the threat posed by Airbus in the large aircraft markets -- hence planning a stretched super 747 to combat the A380.

Told u I was a planespotter![:p]

sharebattler
06-10-2004, 11:01 AM
Singapore Airlines has sold its 6.3 per cent stake in Air New Zealand for around $NZ61.7 million, or $NZ1.63 per share, a 3 per cent discount on the stock's previous closing price.

Air New Zealand was down 3c at $1.65 on Wednesday morning, after being placed in a trading halt for Tuesday's session.

Singapore Airlines' placement agent, UBS, said there was strong institutional demand for the 37.83 million shares from both domestic and offshore institutions.

SIA will book a loss of nearly $500 million on its four-year investment in Air NZ. It paid around $15/share (adjusting for this year's five-for-one share consolidation), for its 25 per cent stake.

Air NZ shares have been in a slump since September 8, when British Airways sold its 18.25 per cent stake in Qantas. Air NZ shares had been trading at $1.94 the day before the BA announcement.

There was speculation SIA might be interested in Qantas. SIA's major shareholder, the Singapore government investment agency Temasek Holdings, ended up with 3 per cent of Qantas from that bookbuild.

The BA decision is seen as opening the way for mergers by major airlines in the Asia-Pacific region. Qantas and SIA are in talks to combine maintenance and training for the Airbus A380 planes.

Air NZ's shares have also been pressured over the last month by soaring fuel prices and the High Court ruling against its proposed tie-up with Qantas.

News of the SIA decision to quit Air NZ was leaked to the Australian Financial Review on Monday y.

SIA said in a statement its decision to sell was "consistent with its strategy to monetize non-core holdings and will not impact on various areas of co-operation between the two airlines, which will continue' '.

SIA had an extremely bumpy ride on Air NZ's share register. Its main purpose in investing in Air NZ was to get into the Australian domestic market through Air NZ's subsidiary, Ansett Australia.

Ansett's collapse in 2001 not only meant SIA had lost hundreds of millions on its investment, but it also lost interest in the kiwi airline.

SIA wanted to bail out Ansett and Air NZ by lifting its stake in Air NZ to 49 per cent, but that deal was rejected by the Government. SIA rejected a deal to recapitalise Air NZ whereby it, and then 30 per cent owner Brierley Investments, would each inject $150m and the Government $550m. In the end, the Government bailed out the airline on its own with an $885m package that gave the Government 82 per cent of the equity and diluted SIA's stake.

© 2004 AAP

johna
06-10-2004, 11:05 AM
The only civilian one that popped into my mind was the 747Sp, I don't think the 757 is a dud?

limegreen
06-10-2004, 12:20 PM
quote:Has anyone here never been on a Boeing aircraft?

That's a reasonable point. By contrast, I'd never been on an airbus until Vietnam (!!!)

Placebo
06-10-2004, 12:36 PM
More on the "dangers" of flying :):


Humming sex toy shuts airport
05 October 2004

SYDNEY: A sex toy vibrating in a rubbish bin has sparked a security scare and shut a regional Australian airport for almost an hour.


An emergency was declared at the airport in Mackay, 805km north of Brisbane in tropical Queensland state, after airport staff heard a strange noise coming from the bin, Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio said.

"It was rather disconcerting when the rubbish bin started humming furiously," cafeteria manager Lynne Bryant said.

Police evacuated the terminal and were about to call in bomb experts when an unidentified passenger came forward to identify the contents of a package left in the bin.

A police spokeswoman said the package was identified as an "adult novelty device".

Australia has been under heightened security alert since the September 11, 2001, hijacked airliner attacks on the United States and security at major buildings and transport hubs has been tightened even further ahead of an October 9 election.

Insider
06-10-2004, 12:54 PM
Over 41 million traded today. Wow......

Placebo
06-10-2004, 02:06 PM
vibrators?

sharebattler
06-10-2004, 03:02 PM
Citygroup has a buy on Air NZ, link to report by Australian Investment Review, target price NZ$2.20
...... http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=673

KiwiBear
06-10-2004, 05:03 PM
The Boeing 747sp was very successful in its time, there were no other jets that competed for long haul non stop routes until the advent of the more fuel efficient Rolls-Royce engines that powered Air-NewZealands B747-200's that replaced the DC10's. Then a further death knell when the B747-400 long range with the fuel tank in the horizontal stabilizer was purchased as AirNZ did also. Unfortunately Quantas held on to their old model B747's including the Sp's far too long. Being left with white elephants, many were cut up & sent to the desert. Air NZ/NAC has always picked the correct A/c at the right time, even in the early years when govt pressure to buy pommie crap (in hindsight), Doug Paterson,the then CEO of NAC stood his ground against Heralds & BAC111's.

The Airbus A320 when first went into service with Ansett Aus. & Air Canada & for a number of years was nicknamed the Late bus and scare bus by engineers who dreaded the problems they created, being teething problems of new technology. That was nearly 13 years ago. AirNZ's A320's have all the early teething problems well sorted out and are a leap ahead of the previously successful B737 series that they are replacing.

A friend of mine, a Kiwi who is a manager at Boeing, told me, after I had jibed him 18months ago that AirNZ was going the Airbus way and that many others were also, what were they going to do to counteract it? He said they were already well on the way and pinning their hopes on the new B7E7.
I guess picking that A/C, and being an initial Airline will give AirNZ the oportunity to spec it for their route requirements, rather than trying to best match an A/C that was for others.
It will also give more expertise and oportunities for ANZES, the engineering division in advanced composites etc. The flow on effect will also be great for our yacht/boat building burgeoning industry. I think Boeing are about to get the jump on Airbus on this one, as AB are concentrating on their A380 which will replace the reign of the Jumbo being at the top!
The saying on T shirts/bags etc in the states
"If it aint Boeing I'm not Goin"

Major von Tempsky
06-10-2004, 05:30 PM
Cave. Cave. Caveat emptor.
Read the appendix at the back of Buffettology. Airlines are listed as a commodity stock i.e. low or no barriers to entry, undifferentiated product, heavy price competition. Buffett avoids them like the plague.
How many airlines have you seen hit the wall in the US and around the world?
Air NZ will be ruthlessly crunched by Qantas and low cost operators just as RyanAir etc etc have deflated British Air.
I received some stuff from J B Were advocating buying Air NZ about a month ago. I laughed. I'm laughing harder than ever - co-operation with Qantas out the window, cash issue coming up, gloves off with Singapore Airlines, competitors girding up.....
I think I might frame the J B Were letter and hang it on the wall for reference at dinner parties for a good joke....

Longtack
06-10-2004, 05:41 PM
Placebo Posted - 06/10/2004 : 3:06:10 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vibrators?

Yeah I put the axe through several thousand of 'em in a former life - strange but true. The electric motors make great little toys though.


Major von Tempsky Posted - 06/10/2004 : 6:30:52 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cave. Cave. Caveat emptor

Cave canum (Beware of the DOG) [}:)][:o)]MVT

Bling_Bling
06-10-2004, 08:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

I received some stuff from J B Were advocating buying Air NZ about a month ago. I laughed. I'm laughing harder than ever - co-operation with Qantas out the window, cash issue coming up, gloves off with Singapore Airlines, competitors girding up.....
I think I might frame the J B Were letter and hang it on the wall for reference at dinner parties for a good joke....


Anything that comes out of the JB Were house of recommendations is a laugh. Just do the opposite of their recommendations and you will make money. Here is a few reasons why I am not buying AIR.

1. Rights Issue
2. Oil prices continue to go up.
3. Air tickets price are the same as 10 years ago if not cheaper.
4. Expect more competition
5. Further carbon tax from Kyoto

07-10-2004, 01:34 PM
THE KING says now we know the price air sing took for their holding $1.63 and the market has matched it now $1.62,,So what is the price then after the $200 million rights deal where the Gov will cough up $144 million leave share holders to find $56 mil.. if you say it fast it not so big as AIR is suppose to be back in the black there has to be a rock bottom some where.. [^][^]

Good flight on QANTAS yesterday.

Steve
07-10-2004, 01:52 PM
I'm flying Air NZ tomorrow. Think that I will do a bit of a 'mystery shopper' test on them.

What do you guys consider to be the important criteria that should be observed?

Disc:no shares, but have a few friends & rellies who work for Air NZ...

Placebo
07-10-2004, 02:23 PM
quote:What do you guys consider to be the important criteria that should be observed?

Quality of the hostie's thigh?

Had a flight back from Nelson on Sunday, we had a planeload of happily hungover sporting types, the hostie was a champion though, a great sport. Big ups to her.

Waiting for the day when they can get you on and off the plane with no human contact whatsoever.

Benlamnz
27-10-2004, 09:21 PM
extrmemly stubborn old man of mine thinks it will rise from ashes. I tried to talk him out of subsucribing to the rights but he seems determined. I think its throwing good money after bad. thoughs any long suffering holders?

28-10-2004, 08:15 AM
THE KING says the feeling THE KING gets is the average KIWI dose not CARE.. [^]

Bling_Bling
09-11-2004, 12:06 PM
Anyone have research report of the valuation on AIRNZ from a broker? Would be interested to find out what the broker recommendations and valuation is.

StainlessSteelRat
09-11-2004, 02:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Benlamnz

extrmemly stubborn old man of mine thinks it will rise from ashes. I tried to talk him out of subsucribing to the rights but he seems determined. I think its throwing good money after bad. thoughs any long suffering holders?


Haven't held AIR for a long time (last sold out in 95), and I have no intention of buying back in, but i would have to say if anyone could turn it around, then Ralph Norris strikes me as the guy who can.

StainlessSteelRat
09-11-2004, 02:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Here's another cloud on the horizon. AIR are one of only 2 confirmed buyers for the new Boeing 7E7. Airbus has now announced it will produce a rival 250-seat twin-aisle widebody based on its existing A330. Boeing is doing its best to shoot it down. The question is, will AIR be left with a dud on its hands?


I have a number of friends who are Air NZ pilots and they tell some horrific stories about "Scarebuses". Save to say that Boeing has always built aircraft that are designed by pilots, from a pilot's perspective. Airbus has built aircraft that are designed by engineers, from an engineer's perspective.

As a simple example, to release the autopilot in a Boeing 747, the pilot hits a "kill" switch on the control yolk. To do the same thing in an Airbus 320 requires three separate hand movements with both hands.

Personally, i wouldn't be too worried about the new Boeing aircraft.

Footsie
10-11-2004, 10:22 AM
Air NZ is very competitive from the UK
They have the cheapest flights to NZ

Currently have a deal for 1900 pounds rtn Business
or 599 economy

which is 5000 and 1700 NZD

rmbbrave
10-11-2004, 11:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

Cave. Cave. Caveat emptor.
Read the appendix at the back of Buffettology. Airlines are listed as a commodity stock i.e. low or no barriers to entry, undifferentiated product, heavy price competition. Buffett avoids them like the plague.
How many airlines have you seen hit the wall in the US and around the world?
Air NZ will be ruthlessly crunched by Qantas and low cost operators just as RyanAir etc etc have deflated British Air.
I received some stuff from J B Were advocating buying Air NZ about a month ago. I laughed. I'm laughing harder than ever - co-operation with Qantas out the window, cash issue coming up, gloves off with Singapore Airlines, competitors girding up.....
I think I might frame the J B Were letter and hang it on the wall for reference at dinner parties for a good joke....


I am not so sure about "low or no barrier" to entry. New airlines have great difficulty in picking up a landing slots especially in Japan. There are no domestic discount fliers in Japan as they can't get landing slots and the govt. is protecting the current operators. Not suprisingly flying domestically is pretty expensive.

donner
24-11-2004, 10:59 AM
Does anyone know about AIR's cargo business?

Snow Leopard
24-11-2004, 11:34 AM
quote:Originally posted by donner

Does anyone know about AIR's cargo business?


NO, we usually travel in the passenger cabin :D

donner
24-11-2004, 11:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by donner

Does anyone know about AIR's cargo business?


NO, we usually travel in the passenger cabin :D



My thoughts excactly.;)

PLK
25-11-2004, 08:24 PM
hey after the AIR right convert to shares on 10 dec
the share price for air should fall right??
because the no of share has increased.....
let me know if i am wrong

donner
25-11-2004, 08:43 PM
yes. Plus an increase in sellers selling their holdings to retrieve their capital.

PLK
25-11-2004, 10:33 PM
oh ok i guess so
i was going to buy gullivers but i have change my target to air NZ
i will get my money ready, whenever the price fall to or close my orginal investment at 1.54 i will buy some more
i recon its a share worth to hold for long term (or at least til feb next year depends on its half year result)
thanks donner

rmbbrave
29-08-2005, 12:40 PM
Air NZ warns 2006 profit could fall 40 per cent


29.08.05 1.00pm


By Rachel Pannett


National carrier Air New Zealand today warned its 2006 earnings could plunge by as much as 40 per cent if sky high oil prices continue.

"If fuel prices persist at current levels, then the potential exists for the current year performance to be around 40 per cent below the 2005 result," Air NZ chairman John Palmer said.

The warning came after the company today posted a slightly higher June year net profit of $180 million.

Today's result was up 8 per cent on the $166 million profit recorded for the same period a year earlier, and bettered analysts' expectations of $161 million. Before unusual items and tax, the profit fell 3 per cent to $235 million, just above an earnings guidance of $220 million issued by the airline in June.

Outgoing chief executive Ralph Norris put a positive spin on the result, saying that excluding record fuel prices -- which account for around 30 per cent of operating costs -- and the difficult trading environment on the Tasman, the result was among the best in the company's history.

"I am encouraged that even in these tough conditions we achieved a solid profit, which was underpinned by another year of strong domestic performance and improvements in some key international routes," he said.

Air NZ shares, 82 per cent owned by the Government after a $885 million rescue package in 2002, last traded down a cent at $1.24.

Over the past year, shares have fallen 26 per cent against a 20 per cent rise for the benchmark NZSX-50 index. At these levels, the Government is well out of pocket, having paid an average of $1.30 per share for its stake.

The company declared a final dividend of 2.5 cents a share -- its second in four years -- having signalled last year that it expected to be in a position to pay shareholders between 25 per cent and 35 per cent of net profit after tax from 2005.

Mr Norris, who leaves the airline today to head Commonwealth Bank in Australia, is credited with nurturing the airline from near bankruptcy following the collapse of its Australian subsidiary Ansett in 2001, to its current solid state.

Despite the tough trading conditions, revenue rose 3 per cent to $3.6 billion during the year, while gearing improved to 51 per cent.

Air NZ carried more than 11 million passengers during the year, up by 781,000.

Mr Norris said the financial and operating targets set for 2006 were challenging in today's environment.

Roughly 60 per cent of the airline's fuel requirements for 2006 are hedged at US$53 per barrel, against current spot market prices of around US$67. For the first half the hedge position is 70 per cent.

"As hedges roll off and are replaced by higher priced hedges, the operating cost base will increase, impacting margins," Mr Norris said.

"There is no doubt that the times ahead will be tough, but we have proven in the past few years that Air NZ has the ability to cope with adversity."

Air NZ chairman Mr Palmer said the international search for a new chief executive was progressing well.

Chief financial officer Rob McDonald will step in as acting chief executive in the interim.

Mr McDonald said that he would not be seeking the role full-time.

BRICKS
05-09-2005, 10:50 AM
With one billion in cash and one billion shares thats a $1 so the planes worth 20 cents so we have $1.20 cum div s/price who is holding up AIR the BUY.. [8D]

hirzelz
08-09-2005, 11:19 AM
The s/p now equates at the old pre-consolidation price to a rotten 23.6c

rmbbrave
08-04-2006, 10:37 PM
Marriage made of necessity
08 April 2006
By ROELAND VAN DEN BERGH

A proposed tie-up between Air New Zealand and Qantas on the Tasman is the first step toward resurrecting a failed alliance bid and could be the start of reshaping the Asia-Pacific aviation market.


Air New Zealand and Qantas are among the most profitable airlines in the world.

Their home markets are considered safe haven destinations by foreign tourists in times of global unrest.

But it is the distance from the rest of the world that lies at the heart of the need for two national carriers to come together in the long term.

As end-of-the-line carriers, reliant on bringing tourists to their home markets along some of the longest routes in the world, they lack the geographic advantage of big competitors like Singapore Airlines and Dubai's Emirates Airline. These competitors operate from natural mid points between the northern and southern hemispheres, providing a constant flow of passengers throughout their networks.

Consolidation among big airlines in coming years is expected to create a handful of mega carriers.

Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation Studies director Andrew Miller said Air New Zealand and Qantas would ultimately have to join forces with a global airline like Singapore Airlines to protect their patch or risk being marginalised.

AdvertisementAdvertisementA trans-Tasman code-share agreement, which is understood to be in the final stages of preparation, is seen as a step toward resurrecting a full alliance proposed three years ago and rejected as anti-competitive by regulators in both countries. While the alliance has since been approved on appeal in Australia, in New Zealand the Commerce Commission's negative decision was upheld by the High Court.

The alliance would have seen Air New Zealand take control of all services to, from and within New Zealand, and a global code-sharing agreement for the rest, in return for a $550 million investment by Qantas for 22.5 per cent of Air New Zealand.

Former Air New Zealand managing director Ralph Norris said the commission's decision showed it had failed to grasp the industry's realities.

Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe says the market has since developed as the airline had predicted. Emirates Airline has ramped up services to Auckland and Christchurch using large long-haul aircraft and budget airline Virgin Blue has expanded its Pacific Blue offshoot.

Mr Miller says that from a strategic perspective, an alliance makes sense, but the consumer legislation works against consolidation of the two airlines, encouraging them to seek other ways to work together.

The Tasman code-share could be announced later this month. The Air New Zealand board next meets on April 26.

It will then need to be signed off by the transport minister, a process that can take another three months.

A code-share agreement is exempt from Commerce Commission approval and could allow the airlines to show that there is sufficient competition to keep them honest, before renewing their push for a broader alliance.

The question is whether the Government will risk a public backlash by allowing the commission, as an independent arbitrator, to be sidelined.

The Tasman is one of the most competitive stretches of sky in the world, fought over by about a dozen airlines, creating massive overcapacity which has slashed fares and profits.

Most are foreign carriers who tack a flight to New Zealand on to their long-haul services to Australia. They offer full service on large planes at budget prices to avoid having $300 million aircraft sitting idle for the day in Australia.

But for Qantas, and Air New Zealand in particular, the Tasman is a crucial part of their networks and feeds their profitable domestic services.

Both are suffering tens of millions of dollars in losses a year on the route that a code-share is likely only to return to break-even.

Mr Fyfe told a transport conference in Sydney this week that massive overcapacity on the Tasman must be tackled head-on

BRICKS
09-04-2006, 10:16 AM
WE have read that so rmbbrave what are you SAYING.. [8D]

rmbbrave
09-04-2006, 11:55 AM
This may or may not be good news depending on a number of conditions each of which has an unknown probability of being meet.

The SP may or my not go up depending on an even greater number of factors.

Draw your own conclusions Bricks.

BRICKS
09-04-2006, 01:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

This may or may not be good news depending on a number of conditions each of which has an unknown probability of being meet.

The SP may or my not go up depending on an even greater number of factors.

Draw your own conclusions Bricks.


INCONCLUSION a each way BET.. WIN or PLACE.. [8D]

Skol
15-04-2006, 06:40 PM
There seem to be a whole raft of posts gone missing between 8/9/2005 & 8/4/2006.

Sideshow Bob
15-04-2006, 07:44 PM
Think that this is another thread that has been recently resurrected. Try:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21014&whichpage=25&SearchTerms=air,nz

Skol
16-04-2006, 07:09 AM
Quite right Bob, thanks.

BRICKS
01-05-2006, 09:09 PM
WELL BRICKS has sold out and now off on a 5 month World Wide tour First stop USA Florida,, Would like to thank all the KIWI knockers on this stock AIR and the hard times you handed out but being BIG hearted I will forget you until next time BRICKS , says you all have a GOOD DAY.. [8D]

BRICKS
02-05-2006, 09:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WELL BRICKS has sold out and now off on a 5 month World Wide tour First stop USA Florida,, Would like to thank all the KIWI knockers on this stock AIR and the hard times you handed out but being BIG hearted I will forget you until next time BRICKS , says you all have a GOOD DAY.. [8D]


FORGOT today is BRICKS birthday ?? ,,[8D]

Toddy
03-05-2006, 06:50 PM
More details on the 'proposed' code-share.



Number 1 - May 1, 2006

Qantas - Air New Zealand Code Share

On 12 April 2006, Qantas and Air NZ announced a plan to "code-share" on the Tasman. This alert explains what the code share is and what the Government should do.

What is a code-share?

Usually a code-share is an arrangement to allow one airline to show its code or flight number on another airline's flight, on a route where they do not compete. For example, Air New Zealand code shares with United Airlines on some trans Tasman flights where they are never likely to compete. The proposed code-share is for routes where Qantas and Air NZ are by far the dominant competitors. That is not normal at all.

What are Air NZ and Qantas proposing?

Air NZ and Qantas want to create a cartel. That is, they want to collude on prices and services for all routes between Australia and New Zealand. They also want to be able to collude on payments to travel agents and a range of other matters. They will set up a joint committee between the two airlines to make decisions on what they will jointly offer customers. They will not compete and the deliberations of the joint committee will not be scrutinised.

Didn't they try this once before?

In 2003 Qantas and Air NZ proposed an "alliance" that would have allowed extensive collusion in many markets. It was rejected by the Commerce Commission as highly detrimental to New Zealand. It was rejected by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) as detrimental to Australia. On appeal, the High Court upheld the Commerce Commission's decision.

So what's different this time?

As far as consumers are concerned, not much. The worst elements of the former proposal remain - collusion on prices and schedules on one of New Zealand's most important markets. Although the agreement does not allow the cartel committee to set prices and schedules for other markets, there is nothing to prevent them from making unilateral decisions not to challenge a 'friendly party' on domestic routes.

Won't the Commerce Commission put a stop to it?

This time, the Commerce Commission may not get a say. There is an anachronistic exemption from the Commerce Act to allow the Minister for Transport to approve code shares. It was never envisaged that this would extend to a highly anti-competitive cartel, but that exemption exists and it is being used in that way.
There is no such exemption in Australia, so (as in most countries) it will go to the competition regulator. But the ACCC is under no obligation to take the interests of Kiwis into account.

Should the Minister of Transport make the decision?

Most developed countries recognise that when influential commercial interests seek to collude, it is better to have an independent and expert commission examine the impacts on consumers. When the Government owns the airline, it is even more difficult for the Minister to be independent and be seen to be independent.

What should the Government do?

If this code-share really is good for New Zealand as the proponents say, why not let that point be tested openly and rigorously?
The Government should do two things:
" Refer the current application to the Commerce Commission for a transparent investigation and advice;
" Enact legislation to get rid of the exemption from the Commerce Act for anti-competitive code shares.

What can I do?

Write to the Minister of Transport, the Minister of Commerce, and your local MP, and tell them you want New Zealand's interests examined by the Commerce Commission. Airlines are making a case to pursue their commercial interests. Be sceptical of claims about the potential benefits of the cartel and assurances that all will be well.

Skol
20-05-2006, 10:45 AM
All is not well at AIR. Rumours aired on TV last night that Rob Fyfe is on the way out and a furious john Palmer inviting discontented or demoralised staff to get out.

biker
20-05-2006, 12:11 PM
What chanel was that on Skol and can you tell us more?


quote:Originally posted by Skol

All is not well at AIR. Rumours aired on TV last night that Rob Fyfe is on the way out and a furious john Palmer inviting discontented or demoralised staff to get out.

Skol
20-05-2006, 03:50 PM
Channel 1 if I remember correctly. There was also some kind of document made public with an HR consultant stating that such inflammatory invective invites subversiveness. Very interesting.

biker
20-05-2006, 10:36 PM
Thanks Skol.
Found the clip in the TV1 archives. Rumours about Fyfe came from the 'travel industry';).
Air is going through a hugh amount of change at the moment and some of it is not being handled very well from a human resources point of view I gather.Looks as though Fyfe's HR department may be letting him down.I hear 'dignity and compassion' are paid lip-service only in some areas.
I can see what Fyfe is trying to do overall,and if he succeeds AIR should be good buying at some stage.
He is fighting negative press the whole way however and still has a few battles to win, not to mention the Wellington business Community, living in cloud cuckoo land when it comes to a realistic air service.[xx(]

lanenz
20-05-2006, 10:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by biker

Thanks Skol.
Found the clip in the TV1 archives. Rumours about Fyfe came from the 'travel industry'.
Air is going through a hugh amount of change at the moment and some of it is not being handled very well from a human resources point of view I gather.Looks as though Fyfe's HR department may be letting him down.I hear 'dignity and compassion' are paid lip-service only in some areas.
I can see what Fyfe is trying to do overall,and if he succeeds AIR should be good buying at some stage.
He is fighting negative press the whole way however and still has a few battles to win, not to mention the Wellington business Community, living in cloud cuckoo land when it comes to a realistic air service.
The only thing i see hes doing is pre warning the public and investors that tough times are ahead. This also means tough decisions need to be made. He clearly needs to learn some PR skills. What many of the workers will be saying to themseleves is be loyal to AIR but be warned we can sh't on you at any time. The majority of airlines are going through restructuring and many are in a far worse position than AIR.

Ralp Norris wasnt silly in jumping ship. I think he completely new what the airline industry was in for.

winner69
21-05-2006, 07:03 AM
quote:Originally posted by lanenz
[br
Ralp Norris wasnt silly in jumping ship. I think he completely new what the airline industry was in for.


surly he didn't jump ship ... being the head honcho of a airline

Skol
21-05-2006, 10:01 AM
When you have the chairman on TV doing his block like that it doesn't bode well for investors. There is probably more going on behind the scenes we'd all like to know about. This business will no doubt undermine Fyfe's authority and will be fairly corrosive.

BRICKS
21-05-2006, 12:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by Skol

When you have the chairman on TV doing his block like that it doesn't bode well for investors. There is probably more going on behind the scenes we'd all like to know about. This business will no doubt undermine Fyfe's authority and will be fairly corrosive.


right WE NOW HAVE THE FACTS do we buy or sell.. [8D]

Skol
22-05-2006, 06:21 PM
I sold some time back but call myself an "interested bystander". Every time a new management team arrives they seem to want to re-invent the wheel. Each decade whether it's Bob Owens, Bob Mathew, John Palmer, they set about making staff redundant, spending zillions on new uniforms, implanting new buzzwords, selling assets, etc. etc. I'm positive it went according to plan under Ralph Norris because he left everyone to get on with the job.

duncan macgregor
29-06-2006, 08:22 AM
I cant get over the greed of some people in top jobs. The highest ranked redundancy in air New Zealand.
[quote the NZ Herald]. The authority notes that in less than 2 years from when he was chief operating officer until the end of his six months leave he was paid more than 1.7 million including redundency pay and bonuses.
The man in reality is only another mans lackey he sits in an office and gets paid wages. It is no wonder that this company is destined to trend down until the next bail out. macdunk

Bling_Bling
29-06-2006, 09:46 AM
Do the new planes run on Bio Fuel? If not, then why buy?

BRICKS
29-06-2006, 07:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Do the new planes run on Bio Fuel? If not, then why buy?


BLING have you been on HOLIDAYS.. [8D]

Bling_Bling
30-06-2006, 01:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Do the new planes run on Bio Fuel? If not, then why buy?


BLING have you been on HOLIDAYS.. [8D]


YEs I have, a very long and satisfying one, thanks. You noticed? :D

BRICKS
30-06-2006, 02:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Do the new planes run on Bio Fuel? If not, then why buy?


BLING have you been on HOLIDAYS.. [8D]


YEs I have, a very long and satisfying one, thanks. You noticed? :D


BRICKS is on holiday too now in EU 2 months to GO..[8D]

Animeart
01-07-2006, 03:11 PM
Latest results are encouraging. If only they can do something about fuel prices...

Morales are pretty low though, except for those who got promoted from this lastest round of restructure of course. Oh well, there's still that new building to look forward to.........

Skol
10-07-2006, 07:44 PM
Rumour was 340 engineers applied for redundancy. So many that Nassenstein, engineering boss, denied a large number their request for golden handshake.

BRICKS
10-07-2006, 07:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by Skol

Rumour was 340 engineers applied for redundancy. So many that Nassenstein, engineering boss, denied a large number their request for golden handshake.


A rumour and a silly one at that,, Tell me 340 people will fire themselves then what handshakes don't last long and in NZ find another JOB tell me ANOTHER.. [8D]

Skol
10-07-2006, 08:14 PM
Well you might check out the situations vacant in the Herald in the last few months and educate yourself. Since AIR advertised very publicly that they were going to send their maintenance offshore and make staff redundant, there have been large numbers of jobs advertised for aviation (in Hong Kong, Dubai etc) and other assorted engineers in the Natural Resources industry in Australia for example.

BRICKS
10-07-2006, 08:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by Skol

Well you might check out the situations vacant in the Herald in the last few months and educate yourself. Since AIR advertised very publicly that they were going to send their maintenance offshore and make staff redundant, there have been large numbers of jobs advertised for aviation (in Hong Kong, Dubai etc) and other assorted engineers in the Natural Resources industry in Australia for example.


GOOD try,, Pack up and go to Honkers and whatever all 340 of them read the Herald to day about the man who going to build 2 seat-er planes a Hamilton stated he had NO trouble getting staff end of STORY.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
10-07-2006, 08:51 PM
Bricks, are you flying Air NZ on your worldly travels??

BRICKS
10-07-2006, 09:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Bricks, are you flying Air NZ on your worldly travels??


AIR do not fly where my present address is they cant get past LA, USA.. [8D]

Animeart
22-07-2006, 02:47 PM
Rob the Knife strikes again. Seems like the job cut in HQ has nothing to do with cost cutting. The only thing we've notices were people replaced by contractors, who usually cost 2-3 times more, and more pepole being promoted to managerial roles. The CEO's direct report has now increased from 6 to 10, and these level 2 managers actually makes about 2-3 times more money than a level 3 General Manager, which translates to a least a million extra in wages alone annually, not including perks like travel, car and god knows what. I could cry if I were an Air NZ share holder.

Another example of poor leadership higher up is this get out if we can't make money tactic Rob has adopted. I wonder if he has ever considered the possibility that Air NZ lost money on all Asian routes because of its weak marketing and sales team. It sounded a bit to me like someone's blaming their tools for not doing a good job, rather than their incompetence. Surely China is easy, and you're bound to make money, until the market if saturated that is. But that just goes to show how lazy the new managemnt structures are. Even a third rated airline can make money servicing China, but only a shrew operator like Emirate can make money even in the so called "blood bath" on the TransTasman. Why doesn't Air NZ just stop flying Trans Tasman, packed up and move to China or N America, where there's a huge market and cheap labour?

[:o)]

BRICKS
23-07-2006, 01:48 AM
quote:Originally posted by Animeart

Rob the Knife strikes again. Seems like the job cut in HQ has nothing to do with cost cutting. The only thing we've notices were people replaced by contractors, who usually cost 2-3 times more, and more pepole being promoted to managerial roles. The CEO's direct report has now increased from 6 to 10, and these level 2 managers actually makes about 2-3 times more money than a level 3 General Manager, which translates to a least a million extra in wages alone annually, not including perks like travel, car and god knows what. I could cry if I were an Air NZ share holder.

Another example of poor leadership higher up is this get out if we can't make money tactic Rob has adopted. I wonder if he has ever considered the possibility that Air NZ lost money on all Asian routes because of its weak marketing and sales team. It sounded a bit to me like someone's blaming their tools for not doing a good job, rather than their incompetence. Surely China is easy, and you're bound to make money, until the market if saturated that is. But that just goes to show how lazy the new managemnt structures are. Even a third rated airline can make money servicing China, but only a shrew operator like Emirate can make money even in the so called "blood bath" on the TransTasman. Why doesn't Air NZ just stop flying Trans Tasman, packed up and move to China or N America, where there's a huge market and cheap labour?

[:o)]


IF your a KIWI you are a long suffering shareholder its a GAME of supply and demand if you like BUY if you don't SELL what goes on inside a company hell knows its the end product that counts and of co**** THE DIV.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
23-07-2006, 03:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Animeart

Rob the Knife strikes again. Seems like the job cut in HQ has nothing to do with cost cutting. The only thing we've notices were people replaced by contractors, who usually cost 2-3 times more, and more pepole being promoted to managerial roles. The CEO's direct report has now increased from 6 to 10, and these level 2 managers actually makes about 2-3 times more money than a level 3 General Manager, which translates to a least a million extra in wages alone annually, not including perks like travel, car and god knows what. I could cry if I were an Air NZ share holder.

Another example of poor leadership higher up is this get out if we can't make money tactic Rob has adopted. I wonder if he has ever considered the possibility that Air NZ lost money on all Asian routes because of its weak marketing and sales team. It sounded a bit to me like someone's blaming their tools for not doing a good job, rather than their incompetence. Surely China is easy, and you're bound to make money, until the market if saturated that is. But that just goes to show how lazy the new managemnt structures are. Even a third rated airline can make money servicing China, but only a shrew operator like Emirate can make money even in the so called "blood bath" on the TransTasman. Why doesn't Air NZ just stop flying Trans Tasman, packed up and move to China or N America, where there's a huge market and cheap labour?

[:o)]


IF your a KIWI you are a long suffering shareholder its a GAME of supply and demand if you like BUY if you don't SELL what goes on inside a company hell knows its the end product that counts and of co**** THE DIV.. [8D]


Been on that Vodka Comdre Bricks? [8D] Certainly reads that way.

Of course it is a concern if what Animeart says is correct. If there is the growth in upper level management, and say $1 million in extra wages/benefit, then they have to earn another million dollars in gross profit, or cut a million in costs to justify their postions. Otherwise your divvies are going to get smaller....

BTW, if you are a resident of NZ, then by default you are a shareholder of this sad little airline. About 75-80% owned by the government, who represent the people of NZ.

BRICKS
23-07-2006, 04:07 PM
BOB your remarks again are KIDS stuff,, BOB vodka sells here for $NZ5 and good stuff not like the NZ stuff they try to SELL @ $NZ40 and fail BAD,,BOB don't stuff your day to MUCH.. Regards.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
23-07-2006, 04:19 PM
Bricks, now you are starting to confuse Air NZ with 42 Below....

Think you should keep posting in Russian - might have a better chance of string a sentence together and making some semblance of sense! [8D]

BRICKS
23-07-2006, 04:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Bricks, I made no comments about the price of vodka. You are confusing Air NZ with 42 Below....

Think you should keep posting in Russian - might have a better chance of string a sentence together and making some semblance of sense! [8D]


BOB just helping you out as you need it and you have NO holdings in
both companies,, BOB come and join us FEW..[8D]

Gryffyn
30-07-2006, 12:31 PM
Would think that the scrapping of the overlander would be a little fillip for AIR.

shasta
30-07-2006, 03:26 PM
Well the Govt won't subsidise the overlander for the $1.75m Toll asked for, but did with AIR to the extent of hundreds of millions & then interfered with the aviation industry.
First, to not allow Qantas/Air NZ clearance, & then had the nerve to shoot down Infratil wanting to utilise Whenuapai, with the planes there sitting gathering dust, & still Auckland's traffic congestion problems worsen, despite Whenuapai being far closer to Aucklands growing population than the existing Airport at Mangere.

Gryffyn, Air NZ should benefit as the Govt has shown its prepared to use its power to protect its interests in AIR.

Gryffyn
30-07-2006, 03:27 PM
indeed - pity the sp doesn't reflect it.

BRICKS
30-07-2006, 06:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Would think that the scrapping of the overlander would be a little fillip for AIR.


IF it the LACK [NIL] of customers on the train that has caused the scrapping where are the customers cumming from to fly AIR.. [8D]

winner69
30-07-2006, 07:00 PM
Most of the (few) passengers seemed to go only as far as National Park .... maybe AIR needs to get a Airbus to fly to National Park International Airport

BRICKS
30-07-2006, 08:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Most of the (few) passengers seemed to go only as far as National Park .... maybe AIR needs to get a Airbus to fly to National Park International Airport



DO TELL.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
31-07-2006, 08:27 AM
AIR NZ is stunned by the revised valuations of AIA. Surely they must be complete dummies to think that it matters one little bit. All the airlines have to pay the same, the cost is passed on to the passenger. I wonder how low the sp goes before the GOVT bails them out again. That is the only thing that i find interesting.
macdunk

Neo-Con
31-07-2006, 10:31 AM
What the share price is at is irrelevant to whether or not the govt will need to bail them out. If someone has a healthy balance sheet they are not gonna need to be bailed out no matter how low the share price is. AIR at this stage has a very healthy balance sheet (around 50% leveraged of the top of my head) and are making profits so have no fundamental financial issues whatsoever. If things do get a bit tougher (not that I think they will) they can always suspend dividend payments.

Gryffyn
31-07-2006, 04:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

AIR NZ is stunned by the revised valuations of AIA. Surely they must be complete dummies to think that it matters one little bit. All the airlines have to pay the same, the cost is passed on to the passenger. I wonder how low the sp goes before the GOVT bails them out again. That is the only thing that i find interesting.
macdunk

true about cost passing Dunc, but they can be worried that higher prices have a negative effect on the whole market which hurts them and their comps.

BRICKS
31-07-2006, 06:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

AIR NZ is stunned by the revised valuations of AIA. Surely they must be complete dummies to think that it matters one little bit. All the airlines have to pay the same, the cost is passed on to the passenger. I wonder how low the sp goes before the GOVT bails them out again. That is the only thing that i find interesting.
macdunk

true about cost passing Dunc, but they can be worried that higher prices have a negative effect on the whole market which hurts them and their comps.


TWO GURU`s talking too themselves.. [8D]

Gryffyn
31-07-2006, 06:10 PM
to

BRICKS
31-07-2006, 09:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

to


THE famous one word GURU.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
01-08-2006, 08:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by Gryffyn

to


THE famous one word GURU.. [8D]
[/quote
BRICKS my old mate you are starting to remind me of a pig dog that i once had. It attacked the other dogs when they were on to a pig so i shot the bloody thing before i shot the pig. Dont attack the wrong thing, remember we are all in this game for the same reason hopefully.
macdunk

BRICKS
01-08-2006, 01:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by Gryffyn

to


THE famous one word GURU.. [8D]
[/quote
BRICKS my old mate you are starting to remind me of a pig dog that i once had. It attacked the other dogs when they were on to a pig so i shot the bloody thing before i shot the pig. Dont attack the wrong thing, remember we are all in this game for the same reason hopefully.
macdunk


STUPID your told the same STORY many times before and would never be your old MATE.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
01-08-2006, 05:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by Gryffyn

to


THE famous one word GURU.. [8D]
[/quote
BRICKS my old mate you are starting to remind me of a pig dog that i once had. It attacked the other dogs when they were on to a pig so i shot the bloody thing before i shot the pig. Dont attack the wrong thing, remember we are all in this game for the same reason hopefully.
macdunk


STUPID your told the same STORY many times before and would never be your old MATE.. [8D]
Sorry BRICKS i keep forgetting you are under a new name since they kicked you off the last time. I did say you were as thick as a brick but never thought you would reincarnate yourself into one.
Your old pal macdunk.

BRICKS
01-08-2006, 08:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by Gryffyn

to


THE famous one word GURU.. [8D]
[/quote
BRICKS my old mate you are starting to remind me of a pig dog that i once had. It attacked the other dogs when they were on to a pig so i shot the bloody thing before i shot the pig. Dont attack the wrong thing, remember we are all in this game for the same reason hopefully.
macdunk


STUPID your told the same STORY many times before and would never be your old MATE.. [8D]
Sorry BRICKS i keep forgetting you are under a new name since they kicked you off the last time. I did say you were as thick as a brick but never thought you would reincarnate yourself into one.
Your old pal macdunk.


YET another talking GURU.. [8D]

BRICKS
08-08-2006, 07:39 PM
WOW... AIR... $1.09.... Low just around the CORNER.. [8D]

biker
09-08-2006, 03:12 PM
I'm picking up a few at these levels.
Still a bit of a punt in my view,but a positive decision on the Tasman code share(anyone hear Cullen's mocking comments yesterday on Wellington airport's unrealistic bleating?) and the possibility of the Airport monopolies being induced to get real on pricing,may start exposing a bit of the embedded value in this outfit.(IFT and AIA looking a bit weak today?)

Gryffyn
09-08-2006, 03:47 PM
Yeah IFT took a hit alright. Longer term I like the look of them but will wait till some things settle.

AIR - balance sheet looks good so maybe a punt is worth it but again things are still to settle in that industry

Disc: some AIR, in the red :-(

BRICKS
09-08-2006, 06:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Yeah IFT took a hit alright. Longer term I like the look of them but will wait till some things settle.

AIR - balance sheet looks good so maybe a punt is worth it but again things are still to settle in that industry

Disc: some AIR, in the red :-(


THE GURU says " Wait and See "[settle]" Know people that have Died saying THAT.. [8D]"

Gryffyn
11-08-2006, 01:54 PM
and todays commotion is another example of the problem with AIR. One might have thought that the Origin debacle would have offset the latest hysteria but there you go.

BRICKS
11-08-2006, 02:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

and todays commotion is another example of the problem with AIR. One might have thought that the Origin debacle would have offset the latest hysteria but there you go.


WHAT commotion & hysteria please tell for us poor soles on the other side of the WORLD.. [8D]

scamper
15-08-2006, 11:33 AM
air must be mightily pleased that they have set up a full London via Hongkong deal.
in spite of being an airpoints person, my last trip via Los Angeles was about 10 years ago, and i swore 'never again'.
since then i've always flown air to singapore and then the cheapest alliance partner to europe, thus reducing the number of airpoints gained.
absolutely nothing was worth the three hours in a cage that LA required, preceeded and superceeded by 12 hours in a tin tube...[xx(]
cant wait for the HK stopover deals to come in, and then it's airpoints all the way, without a paranoic american official in sight.:)

BRICKS
15-08-2006, 09:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by scamper

air must be mightily pleased that they have set up a full London via Hongkong deal.
in spite of being an airpoints person, my last trip via Los Angeles was about 10 years ago, and i swore 'never again'.
since then i've always flown air to singapore and then the cheapest alliance partner to europe, thus reducing the number of airpoints gained.
absolutely nothing was worth the three hours in a cage that LA required, preceeded and superceeded by 12 hours in a tin tube...[xx(]
cant wait for the HK stopover deals to come in, and then it's airpoints all the way, without a paranoic american official in sight.:)


BRICKS had NO trouble at LA but things have changed in ten years NZ & AUS are very welcome now with the one all 3 month Visa straight through to next flight just don't throw your weight around as seen by some people, just help YOUSELF and all will be FINE.. [8D]

moe
16-08-2006, 07:38 AM
Bricks, let us know the next time you are entering the country and I will be sure to let my friends at customs know to give you the best treatment rubber gloves can buy.

BRICKS
16-08-2006, 08:00 AM
quote:Originally posted by moe

Bricks, let us know the next time you are entering the country and I will be sure to let my friends at customs know to give you the best treatment rubber gloves can buy.


DEAR moe you could not pull a rubber glove OFF.. just keep hoping one day you mite even FLY.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
18-08-2006, 10:43 AM
AIR NZ are now contemplating outsourcing clerical jobs to FIJI.
It seems clerical staff work for $6000 a year in fiji. Maintenance done in china now this. Why dont they go the whole hog and rename the company. MICKEY MOUSE AIRLINES SPRINGS TO MIND. I hope they dont claim to be the national carrier after this. macdunk

peat
18-08-2006, 11:41 AM
They were supposedley doing that with various divisions in the late 90's when I worked there duncan. What I saw during the 9 years I worked in the Financial systems dept was always always cost cutting (in your face...) but stupid expenditure in other ways. Sack lots of people then hire them back 6 mths later as consultants on 3x the pay... happened so much it was unbelievable.
The airline industry is something I would not advise most people to be exposed to in any portfolio, super high beta factors, too many unpredictables, and thin margins that blow up in a nanosecond.

trackers
25-08-2006, 01:06 PM
stuff.co.nz:

Air New Zealand reported a 47 per cent drop in net profit today, blaming sharp fuel price increases.
»LISTEN TO AUDIO CLIP


Chairman John Palmer told a media briefing that while "this is not the result we would have liked to have achieved" it was a "respectable result" given the business environment.

The airline said net profit after tax was $96 million, down 47 per cent, while profit before tax and unusuals was $150 million, down 36 per cent.

Airline chief executive officer Rob Fyfe unveiled a strategy to make the airline grow and expand, saying it was the only way they could survive.

Air New Zealand shares were unmoved at $1.13 following the announcement.

The board declared a fully imputed final dividend of 2.5 cents per share, and said it expected to maintain present dividend flows.

Operating revenue for the year was $3.8 billion, an increase of $189m or 5 per cent over last year, Air NZ said.

As a result of a 6 per cent yield improvement, passenger revenue increased $179m or 6 per cent to $3.1b. Included in the passenger revenue increase was a $24m negative foreign exchange impact.

Other external revenue increased $10m or 1 per cent to $746m. A $62m increase in freight revenue was partially offset by reductions in external engineering revenue, due to higher internal engineering (747 refit) and maintenance requirements.

Higher fuel prices led to total expenses, excluding borrowing costs, increasing by $253m or 7 per cent to $3.7b.


Listen to Air New Zealand chairman John Palmer outline the company's big profit fall.

COLIN
25-08-2006, 06:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by peat

The airline industry is something I would not advise most people to be exposed to in any portfolio, super high beta factors, too many unpredictables, and thin margins that blow up in a nanosecond.


I'm with you on that.

Pennywise
25-08-2006, 09:11 PM
Being one of 'resident' Belgs big investments/tips/multiple winks, its amazing you never see him on AIR threads anymore;)

funny that, wink wink

thought it was very strange at the time for someone predicting energy doom and gloom to invest in an airline...and so it has become.

funny little man.

Skol
28-08-2006, 11:24 AM
The unfortunate Morrie Davis made the statement many years ago that "there's no money in freight".
Since that time freight airlines have boomed but AIR has never got into it, except outsource a freighter and crews from other operators. Why would an airline do that when it must be cheaper to do it itself, it has crews, it has aircraft, could convert an older one to a freighter using its own expertise? (Before they sacked hundreds of engineers).
No overheads. No cabin crew, no hotel rooms, no transport for cabin crew, no check-in staff, no lounges, etc. etc. etc.
NZ is an exporting nation, we rely on export of perishable cargo to markets like Oz, Japan, US.

duncan macgregor
28-08-2006, 12:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by Skol

The unfortunate Morrie Davis made the statement many years ago that "there's no money in freight".
Since that time freight airlines have boomed but AIR has never got into it, except outsource a freighter and crews from other operators. Why would an airline do that when it must be cheaper to do it itself, it has crews, it has aircraft, could convert an older one to a freighter using its own expertise? (Before they sacked hundreds of engineers).
No overheads. No cabin crew, no hotel rooms, no transport for cabin crew, no check-in staff, no lounges, etc. etc. etc.
NZ is an exporting nation, we rely on export of perishable cargo to markets like Oz, Japan, US.


If you are looking for common sense to prevail you are in the wrong place. macdunk

Skol
28-08-2006, 01:08 PM
You're probably right macdunk, I talked to a former AIR manager a while back. He told me he "thought he could make a difference, but it's not possible'.

rmbbrave
30-09-2006, 01:08 PM
Air NZ to outsource 70 jobs in finance to Fiji in 2007

Saturday September 30, 2006


Workers at Air New Zealand face more outsourcing of jobs with the airline confirming about 70 finance department clerical workers' jobs will be outsourced to Fiji.

An Air NZ spokeswoman said workers who were affected by the decision were told about two weeks ago, through an internal-only announcement.

About 70 clerical jobs in Air NZ's finance business area, now called Financial Shared Services, will go to Fiji from January 2007.

The spokeswoman said the airline had no further comment to make on the decision.

The Service and Food Workers Union - the union representing the finance workers - said members had been in a constant state of consultation and restructuring for years and workers were demoralised by the lack of response from the airline to their submissions.

Union regional secretary Jill Ovens said Air NZ corporate management was driven by ideology. The focus was to secure a low-paid workforce who were passive and compliant, she said. Ms Ovens said it was likely more jobs in finance would go over the next 18 months.

- NZPA
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10403699

BRICKS
30-09-2006, 03:04 PM
BRICKS will be in WELLINGTON Thursday night at MIDNIGHT papers Welcome.. [8D]

biker
03-10-2006, 10:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by peat

The airline industry is something I would not advise most people to be exposed to in any portfolio, super high beta factors, too many unpredictables, and thin margins that blow up in a nanosecond.


I'm with you on that.


Up 26% in less than 8 weeks can't be all bad:)

Snow Leopard
03-11-2006, 07:47 PM
from Air New Zealand comments on ACCC Draft Determination (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AIR&E=NZSE&N=139367)
Air New Zealand today said it was flabbergasted and astounded...

Now there is a word you do not see very often in company communications, especially in a tautological setting.

Never mind they could always just stop flying those empty A320's they mention.

huds
17-11-2006, 04:26 PM
Seems to me looking at the chart from a novice point of view, if AIR can break through the 1.50-1.55 area it will be quite a bullish sign. Not sure how to post a chart to illustrate my point but that’s my take on it anyway. Notice also there's been a few insto's accumulating since the start of the year.

Bobby_Fischer
22-11-2006, 12:55 PM
Well today its up 8 at 1.56. Not just because they've appointed an Aussie director, surely? What gives?

Snow Leopard
22-11-2006, 01:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bobby_Fischer

Well today its up 8 at 1.56. Not just because they've appointed an Aussie director, surely? What gives?

I think it may have something to do with this announcement: Qantas Statement (http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/af93fca346d484a3247f2b87fe163f7b/ASX-QAN-435351.pdf)

More: Macquarie 'in bidding for Qantas' (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10411932)

A bit of speculative fall-out ?

Bobby_Fischer
22-11-2006, 01:49 PM
Thanks PT, knew there had to be something more. Its hard to see how this development is especially positive for AIR. If Macquarie succeeded in taking a stake in Qantas, then moved on AIR (Govt. would be happy to sell a cornerstone sharehlding, one imagines), there would still be no (apparent) scope for synergies due to regulators' recent rulings re. collusion.

BRICKS
23-11-2006, 08:10 AM
THIS move on QAN is not an open and shut case because of money only more will be said latter but AIR has NO need for Fear as NO body would want IT.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
04-12-2006, 06:54 AM
Has anyone thought about AIR moving its office to FIJI in the middle of a coup. Its office workers in FIJI its mechanics in CHINA what a team. [:o)]:D:Dmacdunk

BRICKS
04-12-2006, 08:09 AM
HAS anyone noticed AIR price is $1.60+ and DM has NONE.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
06-12-2006, 07:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

HAS anyone noticed AIR price is $1.60+ and DM has NONE.. [8D]
HAS anyone noticed that all has gone quiet on shifting the AIR office work to FIJI. I expect that they will now get their office work done for three bowls of rice a day when the dust settles.[:o)]:D:Dmacdunk

BRICKS
06-12-2006, 08:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

HAS anyone noticed AIR price is $1.60+ and DM has NONE.. [8D]
HAS anyone noticed that all has gone quiet on shifting the AIR office work to FIJI. I expect that they will now get their office work done for three bowls of rice a day when the dust settles.[:o)]:D:Dmacdunk


HAS anyone noticed AIR price is higher at $1.67+ and DM still again has NONE.. [8D]

scamper
11-12-2006, 11:17 AM
Air is beginning to look comfortable at 170+.
This is the highest it's been in two-and-a-bit years.
The rise from ~115 in mid-Sept to 175 now must make it one of the best performers over the last three months.
It all seems a bit incredible/fabulous!
Any ideas as to its longevity? cheers, scamper.

Placebo
11-12-2006, 12:18 PM
Almost high enough for Dr Cullen to sell a few to pay for my tax cut ;)

metro
22-12-2006, 08:31 PM
REL: 1257 HRS Air New Zealand Limited (NS)

MONTHLY: AIR: Air NZ Investor Update 29 (Nov Operating Stats)

AIR NEW ZEALAND INVESTOR UPDATE 29

MARKET CONDITIONS

Group capacity for the month of November 2006 increased 9.2% to 2,729 million
Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) when compared to November 2005.

Group traffic for the month of November was 6.8% higher at 2,005 million
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs).

Group passenger load factor was down 1.7 percentage points to 73.5%.

The following sector results were recorded in the month of November:
-Short-haul passenger load factor was up 4.9 percentage points to 74.2%.
-Domestic passenger load factor was up 1.0 percentage point to 76%.
-Tasman/Pacific Islands passenger load factor increased 6.6 percentage points
to 73.3%.
-Long-haul passenger load factor decreased 6.9 percentage points to 73%.
-Asia/Japan/UK passenger load factor decreased 9.9 percentage points to 71.5%
as new services to Shanghai and London via Hong Kong went live in November.
Demand on these services through the peak season is strong and exceeding
initial expectations.
-North America/UK passenger load factor was down 4.9 percentage points to
74.2%.

Group capacity for the five months ended 30 November 2006 was 14,157 million
ASKs, a 3.3% increase over the previous period.

Year-to-date Group traffic of 10,323 million RPKs was 0.3 of a percentage
point lower than the previous comparative period. The resulting year-to-date
passenger load factor of 72.9% was down 2.7 percentage points over last year.

Year-to-date Group yields were up 12.2% over last year assisted by the
significant improvement in the Company's long-haul product and customer
service proposition. Year-to-date long and short-haul yields increased 15.2%
and 9.3% respectively.

NEW AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

Air New Zealand's 12th Q300 aircraft went into service on 13 December and one
Saab has exited the operating fleet.

STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT

AIR NEW ZEALAND PURCHASES FOUR MORE BOEING 787-9 AIRCRAFT

Air New Zealand has confirmed the purchase of an additional four Boeing 787-9
aircraft to meet its growth plans over the next decade.

With this order Air New Zealand has now confirmed the purchase of a total of
eight 787-9 aircraft and has secured options over eight further production
slots giving the airline access to sixteen of these new generation aircraft
over the coming decade.

Air New Zealand is the launch customer for Boeing's 787-9 aircraft, with the
first aircraft due to be introduced into service in 2011 and the last of the
eight aircraft purchased to date being delivered in 2013. As the launch
customer Air New Zealand is working closely with the Boeing design team on
the specification and development of the 787-9.

The four additional 787-9s have a list price of around NZ$1 billion but the
airline achieved a significant discount on this when it was one of the first
airlines in the world to commit to the 787 programme.

An important benefit of the 787-9 is its fuel efficiency, with a 20 percent
reduction in fuel consumption when compared with similar aircraft flying
today.

AIR NEW ZEALAND WINS PRESTIGIOUS AWARD

Air New Zealand's Business Premier service has been named by Business
Traveller Magazine as having the Best Business Class to South Pacific,
Australia, and New Zealand in 2006.

Business Traveller Magazine has been a leader in recognising excellence in
business travel for the past 18 years.

AIR NEW ZEALAND REVAMPS PACIFIC PREMIUM ECONOMY SERVICES

Following on from its decision in October to increase by eight the number of
Pacific Premium Economy seats on its 747 aircraft, Air New Zealand will
launch an enhanced Pacific Premium Economy service from Wednesday 20
December.

The re-launch means that Pacific P

metro
08-01-2007, 06:18 AM
Air NZ rated a 'buy'

The Dominion Post | Monday, 8 January 2007

Air New Zealand is expected to triple its pre-tax profits over the next four years as it benefits from new planes and passenger cabins, as well as route changes.


Forsyth Barr analyst Rob Mercer has upgraded his profit forecast for the national airline to $205.5 million before interest and tax for the year to June 30, up $50.3 million.

That rises to $497 million in 2010, and compares with $148 million last year.

Even those forecasts are conservative, Mr Mercer says in a research note.

He also expects Air New Zealand to pay an 8 cent a share dividend in 2008, up from 5c.

The key profit driver is the perfectly timed fleet upgrade, which will give Air New Zealand a capital expenditure holiday for the next five years, allowing the airline to generate about $1.7 billion in free cashflow over the next five years.

As forecast net debt of $182.7 million for 2007 turns to $120.2 million cash in 2008, and exceeds $1 billion cash by 2011, shareholders can also expect special dividends in the next few years, Mr Mercer says.

Air New Zealand is about 80 per cent state-owned following a taxpayer-funded rescue in 2001.

Mr Mercer has increased his valuation for Air New Zealand shares from $1.52 to $2.20 and recommends investors buy the stock. The shares closed at $1.94 on Friday, up 2c.

"While the airline industry has a history of inadequate returns, we believe Air New Zealand is heading into a sweet spot at the right time," Mr Mercer says.

In the last year, the airline has bought new domestic and long-haul aircraft which are more fuel efficient and will need little capital expenditure and reduced maintenance costs for the next five years.

"The timing of Air New Zealand's fleet upgrade could not have been more perfect" at a time of high fuel costs, Mr Mercer says.

New, market leading lie-flat business class seats, and improved facilities in economy, as well as the introduction of premium economy, has allowed Air New Zealand to regain market share to the point where it now dominates all the routes from New Zealand to Asia, the United States and London. That has boosted revenue and yields, Mr Mercer says.

Loss-making international routes, including Singapore and Nagoya in Japan have been abandoned. The airline has also announced an 11 per cent overall capacity reduction on the Tasman next winter.


Air New Zealand and Qantas abandoned attempts for a trans-Tasman code-share agreement after its was rejected by the Australian competition regulator.

While the international capacity cuts will lower revenue, that will be more than offset by resulting cost savings, especially fuel use, Mr Mercer says.

Fuel costs have also fallen since August when the airline estimated its fuel bill could grow to $1.2 billion for the next year, up $251 million, Mr Mercer says.

Cost savings will come mainly from lower commission paid to travel agents as more passengers book direct through Air New Zealand's website.

Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe expects online bookings to exceed $1 billion this year, about a quarter of forecast revenue.

Mr Mercer says airlines globally are heading into a period of buoyant earnings growth as the ongoing delays of the 555-seat Airbus A380 creates a shortage of international seats in an expanding travel market.

The first double-decker A380 super jumbos are now not expected to fly to Australia and New Zealand till 2009, nearly two years' late.

Steve
08-01-2007, 07:49 AM
No mention of the effect of any of the "no-frills" carriers gearing up on the domestic routes? I would have thought that this posibility would be negative on revenues/profits once it started

StainlessSteelRat
08-01-2007, 08:55 AM
And to think they were going to go under if they didn't get their "merger" with QANTAS.

scamper
08-01-2007, 09:33 AM
Owning shares in AIR has been the stupidity scale round our household since last century. Eg, getting suckered by a car/carpet salesman is about magnitude 8 on the AIR Shares Scale.
But now, it only needs to triple in value and we're back to scratch...

Some portfolio managers should be put down! however, I can say I bought another bundle at 139, so am feeling quite pleased.
Happy New Year & Good Wishes, Scamper.

rmbbrave
08-01-2007, 12:55 PM
Air NZ profit set to triple in next four years

Monday January 08, 2007

Air New Zealand Boeing 787 dreamliner.
Air New Zealand is being tipped to triple its pre-tax profits in the next four years.

Forsyth Barr analyst Rob Mercer, in a research note, upgraded his profit forecast for the national airline for the year to June 30 to $205.5 million before interest and tax, up $50.3 million.

He forecast that would rise to $497 million in 2010.

Even those forecasts were conservative, Mr Mercer said.

The key profit driver was a well timed fleet upgrade, which would give Air New Zealand a capital expenditure holiday for the next five years, allowing the airline to generate about $1.7 billion in free cashflow over the next five years.

He also expected Air New Zealand to pay an 8-cent a share dividend in 2008, up from 5c.

As forecast net debt of $182.7 million for 2007 turned to $120.2 million cash in 2008, and exceeded $1 billion cash by 2011, shareholders could expect special dividends in the next few years, Mr Mercer said.

Air New Zealand is about 80 per cent state-owned following a taxpayer-funded rescue in 2001.

Mr Mercer increased his valuation for Air New Zealand shares from $1.52 to $2.20 and recommended investors buy the stock. The shares closed at $1.94 on Friday, up 2c.

- NZPA

rmbbrave
08-01-2007, 01:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by scamper

Owning shares in AIR has been the stupidity scale round our household since last century. Eg, getting suckered by a car/carpet salesman is about magnitude 8 on the AIR Shares Scale.
But now, it only needs to triple in value and we're back to scratch...

Some portfolio managers should be put down! however, I can say I bought another bundle at 139, so am feeling quite pleased.
Happy New Year & Good Wishes, Scamper.


Well done Scamper,

My only purchase was at 1.43 and that was on the way down.

The SP later got down to 1.10 but I didn't sell and now I'm up 43%.

metro
08-01-2007, 06:04 PM
what?

RMB: that's not trading, its not what I call investment the only word I can use for it is stupidity!

You picked a falling stock in a raging bull market. That's truly outstanding work!
Once you had the stock....What happened to the stop loss on the way down? what happened to the target buy on the way up?
more outstanding work!

43%? over how many years?

Air NZ has performed extremely well of late mainly due to Australian institutional buying. And don't say that's why you held coz no research of the type individuals do can predict that.

Luckily the last four or five years has been a bull market...so far your "buy and blindly hold strategy" has seen you not lose your shirt...how will you get on in a bear market...I'd hate to think!

Is this indicative of your other investments? Hand your Guru stars back now! You should be ashamed of youself! Bad RMB!

Disc: just a wind-up

scamper
08-01-2007, 06:35 PM
steady on, metro ol' chum.
scamper has the monopoly on stupidity on this page -- the brave one was just being encouraging.

i'd be interested to know if anyone else is prepared to confess to outrageous unit prices of AIR share bundles that rotted in bottom drawers for yonks. I'd give you a target to aim for, but metro seems a bit grumpy...

metro
08-01-2007, 07:18 PM
scamper dont worry i was just winding up my old mate robert.
Just a bit jealous he lives in Japan with all those asian ladies whereas i have to "bear" a New Zealand summer

At least i dont call myself a "guru" ;) i'm a simple "member"

Footsie
08-01-2007, 10:11 PM
metro

would you ever seriously consider investing in an airline "long term" ie 2+ years?

i personally wouldnt.... something about airlines,....... the industry is just too volatile

metro
08-01-2007, 10:36 PM
in a word....no! But it was RMB's strategy to invest in AIR (and worse blindly hold). Everyone has their own sharemarket strategy. Each to their own. But I like benefitting from other people's "strategies". :D

rmbbrave
09-01-2007, 12:07 AM
Metro,

No one can predict the future not TAers not FAer's - No one.

I had a go at bottom picking and missed by quite a way.

30 June 2005 I thought AIR was at its bottom so bought a few at 1.43

After that it went down to 1.10 so I was mistaken as to the bottom.

So when has Scamper every successfully picked the bottom I wonder?

Any way 3 dividend payments and 18 months later I'm up 42% (at todays close - not including divies)

Not a bad return for 1.5 years if you ask me!

rmbbrave
09-01-2007, 12:13 AM
quote:Originally posted by metro

in a word....no! But it was RMB's strategy to invest in AIR (and worse blindly hold). Everyone has their own sharemarket strategy. Each to their own. But I like benefitting from other people's "strategies". :D


What's RMB's strategy? you ask.

"To make money any way possible" RMB replies.

In AIR's case 80 % of the shares are held by 1 institution that aint selling - ie NZ INC.

So only 20% are available to the public.

I thought that when sentiment changed on AIR the shares available to buy would not be enough for the punters who wanted to buy them.

Very simple.

Was I right?

Who knows? But I'm up 42% in 1.5 years - so suck my fat one.

And Warren Buffet says "never buy airlines"

He can suck my fat one too.

metro
09-01-2007, 06:57 AM
do you have an exit strategy?

and you sure NZ Inc aren't selling?

Steve
09-01-2007, 07:46 AM
It appears that AIRNZ has inadvertantly got into censorship now

Air NZ bleeps out movie's references to 'God' (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10418270)
Air NZ spokeswoman Pam Wong confirmed references to God had been deleted from its in-flight screening of The Queen on that particular journey but this was not the airline's policy.

scamper
09-01-2007, 09:36 AM
Nah, scamper's never successfully picked the bottom (or anywhere near it). have sold close to some temporary highs, and have had a couple of great escapes selling just before a sharp downturn. just enough deliberate moves that have worked well and encourage continuance...

it's taken me several decades to learn that keeping one's dosh in the bank waiting for 'a good time' is an ok strategy...

redzone
09-01-2007, 09:41 AM
I wonder if that instruction came from the majour shareholder

Steve
12-01-2007, 06:44 PM
It appears thar AIR NZ won't be lowering the fuel surcharge in the near future due to over-hedging

Air NZ not cutting fares as fuel bill drops (http://www.stuff.co.nz/3926673a13.html)
In August, at its annual result briefing it said it was 60 per cent hedged at $US71 ($NZ104) a barrel - meaning that would be the maximum price it would have to pay for 60 per cent of its fuel.

It was currently 72 per cent hedged at between $US62 and $US72 a barrel.

BRICKS
13-01-2007, 08:39 AM
BRICKS leaves NZ for AU Wednesday hope the market grows in 2007 at the moment seems not ON.. [8D]

Steve
17-01-2007, 01:07 PM
Now that Qantas have lowered their surcharge, how long before AIR will follow?

Sideshow Bob
17-01-2007, 07:09 PM
In the past when they had hedged well, they still put the surcharge on.

Just another form of taxation.

When is Auntie Helen & Uncle Michael going to bail out??

Steve
18-01-2007, 07:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

When is Auntie Helen & Uncle Michael going to bail out??

I think that they will leave it for the next government to sell...

Steve
19-01-2007, 05:57 AM
Air NZ cutting fares in bid to lure travellers
(http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10419861)
Air New Zealand will today announce big cuts to its domestic fares in an attempt to entice more people to travel by air.

The Herald understands the airline will make cuts of more than 15 per cent on its cheapest fares on many routes, including the main trunk routes and regional routes.
...
Deutsche Bank transport analyst Jason Bloom said any Air NZ fare cut might be an attempt to stimulate demand if forward bookings were slowing.

The airline might also be trying to send a message to any competitors planning to fly on domestic routes to say, "We are willing to lower prices and it isn't a market where you can make lots of money".

CJ
19-01-2007, 09:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve
The airline might also be trying to send a message to any competitors planning to fly on domestic routes to say, "We are willing to lower prices and it isn't a market where you can make lots of money".

Less than a week after Branson was in the country. mmm. Seems to me that while most men dont mind paying a little money to get into a Virgin, Air would prefer to keep them off its street corner.

Steve
20-01-2007, 10:03 AM
I wish that a reporter would do an in-depth piece of AIR detailing how the business went from "if we don't code-share with Quantas, we are in BIG trouble" to "no code-share but profitability expected to soar".

Perhaps an academic could make a case-study out of it?

scamper
22-01-2007, 01:18 PM
it looks as though AIR may have done its dash for the moment.
270k buyers, 1.1m sellers
i suspect it will be a similar pause to that from mid-Oct to mid-Nov.
2k buyers at 199 and 226k sellers at 200.
scamper still holds a few.

Steve
23-01-2007, 08:33 PM
The new pricing goes on sale tomorrow. I'm guessing that there will be a media release stating how demand has surged!

limegreen
23-01-2007, 11:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve

The new pricing goes on sale tomorrow. I'm guessing that there will be a media release stating how demand has surged!


You better believe it!!! The prices I just booked are definitely cheaper than were available this afternoon. Not that I stayed up for it or anything...[8D][8D][8D][8D]

duncan macgregor
26-01-2007, 12:49 PM
With this FIJI crisis [all the business threats etc],effect the running of AIR. They were moving all their offices to FIJI and their mantainance to china. That was the master plan so whats happening?.
I hope they will now see the stupidity in their plans and do a U turn before its to late. MACDUNK

CJ
26-01-2007, 09:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

With this FIJI crisis [all the business threats etc],effect the running of AIR. They were moving all their offices to FIJI and their mantainance to china. That was the master plan so whats happening?.
I hope they will now see the stupidity in their plans and do a U turn before its to late. MACDUNK
They are probably rubbing there hands as rents have decreased and cheap cleaning staff will be in abundancy (surplus from under booked resorts).

rmbbrave
11-02-2007, 12:00 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/3956643a13.html

The jobs of 1850 Air New Zealand front-line staff are up in the air as their employer weighs up contracting out the work they do to a Spanish firm. Alan Wood reports.


Air New Zealand's proposal for front-line work to be outsourced to a consortium led by Spanish firm Swissport created an uproar among ticketing and baggage and service staff when it was announced in October.

But if Air NZ's turbulent staff-management is set aside and the airline is judged by its share price alone, it is on the right track, analysts note. Its shares are close to recent highs. The shares closed yesterday up 3c at $2.19.

And I bought in at 1.43

Crypto Crude
11-02-2007, 07:15 AM
I think airline investment is one of the worst sectors to aim at....
Airlines face feirce ogolipoly competition....
oil prices.... large expenditure on planes...(depreciating assets).... landing charges.... etc....

expect some time in the future large taxes because of all the ommissions they create... which will dent demand.... yes Air NZ has risen in the last months massively.... still nothing on what this carrier once was.... maybe a good time to sell up in the near future... and invest elsewhere....
in my opinion,... thats all...
[8D]
.^sc

BRICKS
11-02-2007, 09:08 AM
BRICKS will be returning to NZ Wellington midnight 21st FEB 2007, all WELCOME.. [8D]

Phaedrus
11-02-2007, 11:22 AM
SC, the time to sell AIR will indeed come, but right now if I held this stock I would not dream of selling.
The chart below shows a wide assortment of trend indicators - none of which are showing any sign of weakness. See how the Stochastic oscillator is positive and rising. Note the rising OBV. Technically, everything here points to further upside potential.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AIR211003.gif

BRICKS
21-02-2007, 10:02 AM
TRAVEL to NZ today leaving all the rude remarks about KIWI`s behind,, also you hear this now, N.S.W. AU. will be in official recession in two weeks TIME.. [8D]

George
21-02-2007, 10:44 AM
What's your read on AIR now Phaedrus. Stochastic has fallen and stop must be just about hit by now. Is this latest news just a blip or something which will hold the price back for some time.
Disc. Hold air, not sure about topping up or selling.
George

Sideshow Bob
27-02-2007, 07:12 PM
Auntie Helen & Uncle Mickey must be pleased - apparently not tempted into selling...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10426127

Full announcement:

Air New Zealand has today announced a profit before unusuals and tax of $109 million for the six month period ending 31 December 2006, an increase of 35% ($28m) on the poor performance in the same period last year.

Net profit was $74 million, up 61% ($28m), and higher yields contributed to a 12% increase in operating revenue. Based on the airline's improved profitability and outlook, the Board has increased the interim dividend to 3 cents per share, or $32 million.

Air New Zealand Chairman John Palmer said the airline's progress in the first six months of the year was pleasing in the face of significant challenges like high fuel prices, a weaker New Zealand dollar and intense competition from other destinations.

"All our key metrics - including yield, passenger numbers, revenue, profitability and share price are up, despite significant external pressures," Mr Palmer said.

Jet fuel continued to be the company's most significant cost. The average price of fuel was up 13% over the last year, and 55% over the same period two years ago.

Mr Palmer said that in 2003 the airline embarked on a substantial $2.6 billion capital investment programme. Subsequent to this, it sought to strengthen its balance sheet through a capital raising to shareholders.

With this current cycle of fleet investment coming to an end, no jet aircraft arriving until 2010, and strong gearing position of 46.7%, the airline is now in a position to return some cash to shareholders.

"Although the operating environment is still very challenging, we feel confident now about the ability to release some of the cash holdings from the balance sheet," he said.

"With that in mind, a review of our current medium-term financial and cash projections has prompted the Board to declare a special dividend of $105 million, or 10 cents per share," said Mr Palmer.

The record date for the interim and special dividends is the 13th of March 2007 with the payment date 26 March 2007. The dividend will be fully imputed and supplementary dividends will be available for overseas shareholders.

The Company's dividend policy has also been changed to reflect the Board's desire to maintain a consistent and growing dividend stream, in normal course of events, and this is expected to be between 25 to 50 percent of net profit after tax.

Mr Palmer said that despite the encouraging performance, the airline's returns were still below their potential.

"The Board's view is that we are not yet achieving the levels of performance we consider appropriate to properly reward shareholders for the capital employed and associated investment risk," Mr Palmer said.

Chief Executive Rob Fyfe said it was important to consider Air New Zealand's performance over the past six months within a wider context.

"We are confident in our strategic direction and will continue to drive the changes we need to ensure the airline is world class in everything it does," Mr Fyfe said.

"As a niche player, we will only achieve these standards by transforming our airline into one that is nimble, flexible and innovative, able to successfully compete in a demanding operating environment."

Mr Fyfe said priorities for the business over the next six months included clarifying the future operating model for Airport Services, growing the domestic business, consolidating Air New Zealand's position on the Tasman and stimulating demand for the new Vancouver service, which will launch in November.

"We will also continue to simplify and reduce costs."

Over the past six months Air New Zealand has achieved additional cost savings of $63 million and is on track to achieve targeted cost savings of $130 million for the full year.

"This is the final year of our four-year cost saving programme, which originally targeted savings of $245 million per annum once fully implemented. By the end of thi

Steve
27-02-2007, 09:07 PM
And not a mention of where all the 'doom & gloom if we are not allowed to codeshare' has gone...

huds
28-02-2007, 04:16 PM
Up 5% today, not bad at all.

winner69
16-03-2007, 07:35 AM
what the biscuit saga?

help the share price?

BRICKS
16-03-2007, 10:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

what the biscuit saga?

help the share price?


THIS rubbish should get an AWARD.. [8D]

ScrappyO
20-04-2007, 02:13 PM
It nice to see AIR NZ doing so well.:)
The days of sp decreases look gone for now .

trackers
20-04-2007, 04:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by kiwigold

Yes, up ,up and away ................this stock isn't popular on this forum , but I dare say some of the detractors here may be kicking themselves now.:D:D:D


Listened to Rob Fyfe speak at a leadership function about a fortnight ago - quite inspirational, seems like he's got things well under control over there

BRICKS
21-04-2007, 07:31 AM
BRICKS has always called AIR a winner but NZ full of knockers with NO money, take RBD a knockers paradise you got to take a chance if you wait for a chart to make the move your missed the BOAT..

$2.60 something you must have your hart in your hand but best of luck to the winners.. [8D]

rmbbrave
21-04-2007, 09:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3956643a13.html

The jobs of 1850 Air New Zealand front-line staff are up in the air as their employer weighs up contracting out the work they do to a Spanish firm. Alan Wood reports.


Air New Zealand's proposal for front-line work to be outsourced to a consortium led by Spanish firm Swissport created an uproar among ticketing and baggage and service staff when it was announced in October.

But if Air NZ's turbulent staff-management is set aside and the airline is judged by its share price alone, it is on the right track, analysts note. Its shares are close to recent highs. The shares closed yesterday up 3c at $2.19.

And I bought in at 1.43


Not too far away from doubling my dosh.

rmbbrave
21-04-2007, 09:37 AM
Air NZ shares soar
Air New Zealand shares soared to their highest level since September 2003 yesterday, thanks to cheaper fuel and the airline's improved performance.

The shares rose nearly 7 per cent or 17c to $2.67, easing back 2c at the close of trading. The last time they were higher was three-and-a-half years ago when they hit $2.98.

The spike follows an Air NZ update and industry conditions which one analyst called a near "perfect confluence" of factors.

Group-wide yields improved 10.1 per cent for the year to date, and the airline's March passenger load factor – the proportion of seats filled – improved by 7 percentage points compared to a year earlier.

That lifted the load factor to 79.5 per cent – the result of an 8.3 per cent increase in traffic numbers despite group-wide capacity reductions of 1.3 per cent, Air New Zealand said.

Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation executive chairman Peter Harbison said this week that Air New Zealand had been doing the right things for the past couple of years.

"It's really quite impressive," he said.

Along with focusing on costs, the company had been quite good at pruning unprofitable routes, and the strong New Zealand dollar had lowered its jet fuel costs.

Mr Harbison said the airline industry was also enjoying a sweet spot.

Economies were strong, generating business, at the same time as the airline industry was a little deprived of capacity, as few new aircraft had gone into service.

So the average number of passengers on each flight had gone up, leading to an increase in average fares within the industry, which went straight to profitability, Mr Harbison said.

However, Air NZ had some potentially large competitors, including Qantas subsidiary Jetstar and Virgin Blue, and the possibility of Tiger Airways looking across the Tasman after establishing itself in Australia.

Air New Zealand was vulnerable on the trans-Tasman route, which was a disproportionately large part of its activities, Mr Harbison said.

"It's a good time to be positioning well and I think by adding capacity to their own fleet, they're (Air NZ) sending out a signal that we're not going to surrender the fort very easily."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4032854a13.html

BRICKS
26-04-2007, 10:48 AM
WELL next Friday 4th May 2007 BRICKS returns to NSW yet again to try his luck on the market and leave behind his new Mazda and return to the Commodore this time will trip to Brisbane to see whats going ON.. [8D]

rmbbrave
27-04-2007, 01:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3956643a13.html

The jobs of 1850 Air New Zealand front-line staff are up in the air as their employer weighs up contracting out the work they do to a Spanish firm. Alan Wood reports.


Air New Zealand's proposal for front-line work to be outsourced to a consortium led by Spanish firm Swissport created an uproar among ticketing and baggage and service staff when it was announced in October.

But if Air NZ's turbulent staff-management is set aside and the airline is judged by its share price alone, it is on the right track, analysts note. Its shares are close to recent highs. The shares closed yesterday up 3c at $2.19.

And I bought in at 1.43


Not too far away from doubling my dosh.


Doubled!

BRICKS
27-04-2007, 02:19 PM
TRY selling a large number at these prices and see how weak the stock is in turn tumble current t/o numbers are low all that is needed is one institute to pull the PLUG.. don't WAIT.. [8D]

huds
15-06-2007, 02:04 PM
AIR NZ's chart is looking pretty good. Its broken out of its trading range on April 20th and has tested the upper line a few times since, so its seems to have found good support.

777
27-06-2007, 08:55 AM
44 million went through pre market this morning at 270.

Qantas off loaded.

Viking
27-06-2007, 11:16 AM
Would this translate into QF diminishing hope of code-share with Air NZ.[?][?]

BRICKS
27-06-2007, 01:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by Viking

Would this translate into QF diminishing hope of code-share with Air NZ.[?][?]


DID the sun come TODAY.. [8D]

Viking
27-06-2007, 02:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Originally posted by Viking

Would this translate into QF diminishing hope of code-share with Air NZ.[?][?]


DID the sun come TODAY.. [8D]

[:I] Though freezing~ the sun shines particularly bright in this freezing winter day~

O well, there will be a blood-bath considering all the airlines operating in this region, and most noticible the EK (Emirates) who just bought all the naming right of a couple of big visible events~ Team NZ in the America's Cup, the Melbourne Cup~

Not very good news for Air NZ... though the good thing is they are code-sharing with Air China from 01JUL~ may help their strentch into China~

scamper
22-08-2007, 10:14 AM
Why cant i find the air thread -- the cross-eyed puppy will delete this if someone comes up with the old one.

i'm surprised at the drop in AIR, and assume it is because of the chartered flights carrying soldiers to Kuwait. Is this the small investors' ethics vote?

i note, however, that the slide began three months ago. surely the quarterly ~7% increases, and the announcement of buying four 777s didn't contribute.

i sold over half my air last week, and am looking to buy back in -- when i can get to the bottom of the slide. i've been overseas for over three months -- can someone tell if there've been any fundamental changes. cheers scamper.

whatsup
22-08-2007, 10:28 AM
Air NZ getting a pasting based I guess on the prospect of competition on the domestic side of their business down now below $2.00 from $3.2 earlier on in the year Darnnnnn!!

Viking
22-08-2007, 10:34 AM
I think though the basic business structure maybe healthy~ but proves that the industry is very volatile~ and airlines these days quite vulnerable to the environment changes...

scamper
22-08-2007, 10:53 AM
I see AIR has been sliding for the last three months.
announcements in the last month have included the impending puchase of four 777s, ~7% increases for the period, and the charter revenue.
could this week's slump be ethics driven, with some investors selling in protest over the charters of aussie soldiers to kuwait. To me Air's moves sound like clever grabbing of money-making opportunities.
i guess the prospect of domestic competition my be chilling to some, but let's face it, that has happened before, and when the dust has settled, Air's still flying.
sold half my holding last week, but will be watching to buy back in. Scamper.

Placebo
22-08-2007, 11:13 AM
Probably more to do with the report in today's Dom-Post (and on www.stuff.co.nz) about looming competition domestically. Story tips Pacific Blue (a Branson creation) to start flying within NZ, followed potentially by Jetstar with Tiger Air (Singapore air offshoot) another possible starter.

My comment: I find it hard to believe that there are 3 possible players looking at NZ domestic market. AIR has seen off all comers -- Ansett, Qantas and Origin Pacific, should there really be worries about any others.

I guess any competition will erode their market share, hence the price drop.

biker
22-08-2007, 12:22 PM
I see AIR has been sliding for the last three months....
......i guess the prospect of domestic competition my be chilling to some, but let's face it, that has happened before, and when the dust has settled, Air's still flying.

Scamper.

May still be flying but domestic is Air New Zealand's main, number one, primary, substantial, consistent profit centre. Domestic competition wont put them out of business but they will inevitably loose traffic and will be unable to increase yield to compensate. Virgin are cunning operators and even more cunning marketers. It has been a golden period for AIR domestic over the last 12 months but the market knowns things are about to change.

Phaedrus
22-08-2007, 01:21 PM
Todays 9% plunge is merely the continuation of a pre-existing downtrend. Technically, the writing has been on the wall for AIR since June, when most of the various indicators plotted here triggered simultaneous Sell signals. This chart is unusual, in that the trendline break was the last indicator to fire. Most commonly it is one of the first to be triggered, generally just after the OBV.

The chart shows how a trailing stop based on the Average True Range is slightly superior to one based on a simple percentage fall.

Current holders of this stock must be totally oblivious to the use of basic technical indicators. The OBV sell signal could hardly have been more obvious, quite apart from the confirmation provided by other indicators.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AIR822.gif

ratkin
22-08-2007, 01:54 PM
Current holders of this stock must be totally oblivious to the use of basic technical indicators. The OBV sell signal could hardly have been more obvious, quite apart from the confirmation provided by other indicators

They must of also been oblivious to the inevitable entry of cut price competitors.
I dont know much about this company as i dont invest in airlines , but what caused the price to rise so much earlier this year?

ratkin
22-08-2007, 01:58 PM
Yes, up ,up and away ................this stock isn't popular on this forum , but I dare say some of the detractors here may be kicking themselves now.:D:D:D


What a difference three months makes

Jay
22-08-2007, 02:59 PM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=1088&page=15

I hope that the above should take you to the existing thread scamper

trackers
22-08-2007, 03:06 PM
Rob Fyfe is quick off the mark today:

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=152463
Air New Zealand Limited (NS)
AIR


22 Aug, 2007, 15:04
MONTHLYAir NZ Investor Update Issue 36 (Jul-07 Operating Stats)

CONTENTS

- July market conditions
- New aircraft deliveries
- Annual results announcements
- Company announcements

JULY MARKET CONDITIONS

July trading was strong, with 6.7% growth in passenger numbers across the Group compared to the same month in 2006.

Within this, our long-haul operations experienced significantly higher activity than in July 2006, carrying 154,000 customers (10.8% more than July 2006). Total Revenue Passenger Kilometres were 1.4 billion, an increase of 11.4% year on year.

Passenger load factor was 82.2% across the Group, an improvement of 6.2 percentage points compared to the same month last year.

Load improvements were equally pleasing in short-haul and long-haul, with improvements of 6.9% and 5.4% respectively. Short-haul load factor improvement against last year continues to reflect the rationalisation of the Tasman / Pacific Islands schedule. Stronger loads for our long-haul operation were predominantly driven by Asian routes, including Hong Kong and Shanghai.

July 2007 group-wide yields were 0.2% higher when compared with the previous period. Short-haul yields were up 3.0% on July 2006, while long-haul yields were 1.0% lower.

A summary of load factors for the month of July follows:
-Short-haul passenger load factor increased 6.9 percentage points to 78.4% when compared to July 2006.
-Domestic passenger load factor was up 2.6 percentage points to 76.3%
-Tasman / PI passenger load factor was up 8.9 percentage points to 79.5%
-Long-haul passenger load factor was up 5.4 percentage points to 85.0% when compared to July 2006.
-Asia / UK passenger load factor increased by 9.0 percentage points to 81.9%
-North America passenger load factor increased 4.4 percentage points to 87.2%

AMR
22-08-2007, 03:25 PM
Could the slump be due to Helen Clark's bashing of Air New Zealand over the chartering? Perhaps investors are pricing in further losses due to the prospect of more government involvement in the company.

trackers
22-08-2007, 03:34 PM
Could the slump be due to Helen Clark's bashing of Air New Zealand over the chartering? Perhaps investors are pricing in further losses due to the prospect of more government involvement in the company.

No, its to do with a very large global player entering into the domestic market as a major player.... Wouldn't read much more into it than that I reckon...

There's definitely room for another player, but will take a while for the dust to settle from this I suspect

biker
22-08-2007, 03:53 PM
May still be flying but domestic is Air New Zealand's main, number one, primary, substantial, consistent profit centre. Domestic competition wont put them out of business but they will inevitably loose traffic and will be unable to increase yield to compensate. Virgin are cunning operators and even more cunning marketers. It has been a golden period for AIR domestic over the last 12 months but the market knowns things are about to change.


Having said that, there are some big sellers in the market at the moment and when they have gone and when AIR announce their annual result and some new domestic initiatives next week,I think there may be a bit of a bounce in the share price. I'm back in for a while at 2 bucks.

trendy
23-08-2007, 09:34 AM
Competition!

Pacific Blue to take off with $39 fares
| Thursday, 23 August 2007

Australian airline Pacific Blue has ushered in a new era of competition in New Zealand skies, offering $39 special fare flights on trunk routes in this country.

Flights will lift off from November 15, reporters were told today as more details were revealed about the move, which puts Pacific Blue into direct competition with Air New Zealand and Qantas.

Intitially the carrier will fly on key trunk routes: Auckland-Wellington, Auckland-Christchurch and Wellington-Christchurch.

There would be five direct daily return flights from November 15, the airline said.

The $39 fare was a special sale fare, one-way, purchased on the internet.

biker
23-08-2007, 10:16 AM
Hard to compete effectively with only five services a day and now the market has the facts it doesn't seem so worrried. Nice to see the share price up 4-5% on the Virgin news.

peterb
28-08-2007, 07:10 PM
214,000,000 net profit divided by 1,051,682,560 shares = $0.203 earnings per share

804,191,058 owned by the NZ government = $163,639,574.30

divided by 4,233,889 = $38.65 NZD per New Zealander or $27.35 USD

Total GDP per capita of Malawi = $161 USD

Proportion of mean Malawian GDP represented by profit attributable to each citizen or permanent resident of NZ from the just announced AIR NZ profit: %17

I think we're doing ok

biker
29-09-2007, 08:00 PM
Having said that, there are some big sellers in the market at the moment and when they have gone and when AIR announce their annual result and some new domestic initiatives next week,I think there may be a bit of a bounce in the share price. I'm back in for a while at 2 bucks.

Latest stats show International improving as well. Happy to see a 25% gain in a month.

Why start a new thread Phaedrus?

QOH
23-04-2008, 07:05 AM
How much lower can it go? At $1.29 it's looking cheap to me .

JBmurc
23-04-2008, 07:57 AM
How much lower can it go? At $1.29 it's looking cheap to me .

-Have to agree going off ASB securities AIR have some great fundamentals
low P/E-4.8 High yeild-11.57% NTA-93c this time last year mid $2
-But with there greatest cost being fuel and the slowing economny, though record amounts of NZ'er are using AIR to leave NZ
- may look at taking a position at these levels would be a good hedge to all of my Oil&Energy shares

Dr_Who
23-04-2008, 08:30 AM
--But with there greatest cost being fuel and the slowing economny, though record amounts of NZ'er are using AIR to leave NZ
-

This is the only reason I have not bought into AIR. I like the management team and the CEO with good business concept. But the oil price and slowing economy may result in future downgrades?

CJ
23-04-2008, 08:36 AM
-But with there greatest cost being fuel and the slowing economny, though record amounts of NZ'er are using AIR to leave NZ
Problem is going across full, coming back empty so only 50% load factor ;)

BRICKS
23-04-2008, 09:57 AM
Problem is going across full, coming back empty so only 50% load factor ;)

THE planes do not fly empty or half full to NZ shows you never been a traveler both ways average about 75% to 78% full but in real time depending which day can be 90% but rare 100%..

AIR is doing the best it can its the size of the fleet and new planes COMMING..

777
23-04-2008, 10:07 AM
Lighten up Bricks. Don't take everything so literally. CJ gave a big wink with his contribution.
You seem to attack every poster rather than contribute to the discussion.

CJ
23-04-2008, 10:21 AM
Lighten up Bricks. Don't take everything so literally. CJ gave a big wink with his contribution.

Exactly :D

Phaedrus
23-04-2008, 12:33 PM
Any Buy signals for AIRNZ yet? How much lower can it go? At $1.29 it's looking cheap to me.....

No, QOH, no buy signals yet. Worse than that, right now, the latest AIR price is $1.27, breaking below the previous support at $1.29/$1.30 that was starting to look a little bit hopeful. Of course the Close may be different.

This is a clear, simple chart showing TA working very nicely indeed. See the early entry signals. Note the excellent agreement between the 8 indicators featured here. See how they all fired off Sell signals very close together when the 8 month uptrend ended. Note how they all got you back into AIR when it rallied strongly in September - and got you out again when the rally fizzled out. See how current price action is well below levels needed to start triggering Buy signals. If the Close today is below the marked previous support, that is Bearish, of course.

To me, the most striking feature of this chart is the Big Money (assumed to be the "smart" money) getting out right at the top back in June. Didn't they time that to a nicety? It always pays to keep a very close eye on what the big boys are doing. It is not unreasonable to assume that they know a lot more than mug-punters such as you and I do.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AIR423.gif



Why start a new thread Phaedrus?
Why did you feel it necessary to say that Biker? I have contributed AIR charts on this thread - on page 13 and again on page 15, for example. I do sometimes start a separate chart thread on some stocks to avoid stepping on the toes of the dedicated FA boys. Charts often seem to upset them, for some reason!

BRICKS
23-04-2008, 12:41 PM
Lighten up Bricks. Don't take everything so literally. CJ gave a big wink with his contribution.
You seem to attack every poster rather than contribute to the discussion.

IF so much rubbish was not written here, Would say as not attacking rather it is just stating the true facts without wishy - washy stupid STATEMENTS said without much THOUGHT..

QOH
23-04-2008, 12:55 PM
I appreciate your charts. You've made me keep my fingers off the buy button for today.

777
23-04-2008, 01:02 PM
Phaedrus the big money was Qantas selling down their holding if I remember correctly. I wouldn't call them a smart investor divesting. They did of course achieve a good price in hind sight but would think it was more accidental.

Phaedrus
23-04-2008, 01:19 PM
Whoever it was and whatever their reasons, any big seller will depress the market.

biker
26-04-2008, 07:27 PM
Originally Posted by biker
Why start a new thread Phaedrus?

..............Why did you feel it necessary to say that Biker? I have contributed AIR charts on this thread - on page 13 and again on page 15, for example. I do sometimes start a separate chart thread on some stocks to avoid stepping on the toes of the dedicated FA boys. Charts often seem to upset them, for some reason![/QUOTE]


Phaedrus I posted that in Sept last year when you had opened a new thread 'AIR 50cents saved is 50cents earned' and since this thread has been running since sept 04, I couldn't see why you didnt continue to post here.
Disc. bought Air at $2 back then, watched it move around a bit, took the dividend and got out.
A shame to see a company in good shape, crippled by the price of fuel. If the oil price continues to rise, as the current hedges run out Air's profit must surely continue to fall to the point of in 12 to 18 months actually making bugger all.
I agree, JBmurc, possibly useful as a hedge against oil stocks, but it has dropped over 7% since your last post. The frustrating thing is that if the oil price drops significantly Air will do very well. It now has its ducks in a row. Interesting to see a company with a turnover approaching 5 billion dollars heading towards a situation where it may become barely profitable.
If oil goes higher and stays high indefinately, I think there will be some significant changes in routes and fleet sizes.

AMR
26-04-2008, 08:06 PM
a hedge against oil stocks, but it has dropped over 7% since your last post. The frustrating thing is that if the oil price drops significantly Air will do very well. It now has its ducks in a row. Interesting to see a company with a turnover approaching 5 billion dollars heading towards a situation where it may become barely profitable.
If oil goes higher and stays high indefinately, I think there will be some significant changes in routes and fleet sizes.

Biker, I'm not 100% sure what you mean but to hedge with AIR, I would go long NZO and go short AIR so in a big market fall both stocks would fall but I would earn a bit on my short with AIR.

Steve
27-04-2008, 10:35 AM
Biker, I'm not 100% sure what you mean but to hedge with AIR, I would go long NZO and go short AIR so in a big market fall both stocks would fall but I would earn a bit on my short with AIR.

Good in theory, but a bit more difficult when trying to plug them into a hedging model...

JBmurc
12-05-2008, 05:37 PM
Biker, I'm not 100% sure what you mean but to hedge with AIR, I would go long NZO and go short AIR so in a big market fall both stocks would fall but I would earn a bit on my short with AIR.

don't know if that would be that great of hedge if the oil price falls NZO will fall and AIR would rise -personal like to buy some AIR because of this reason still how low can they go.

-like to buy a out of favour high yeild NZX share with AIR having a large yeild ?? or maybe TEL (chart looks better)

Steve
25-05-2008, 02:12 PM
Can you see AIR bringing in charges such as these?

More airlines could join American in imposing bag-check fee (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10512172)
United Airlines and three other large US carriers are considering whether to join American Airlines in charging travellers US$15 ($19) to check one bag as fuel bills soar.

UAL's United is "seriously studying" the fee, the first of its kind in the US, spokeswoman Robin Urbanski said yesterday.

Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and US Airways Group said they were evaluating the idea.

beacon
30-05-2008, 11:22 AM
B(e)ware have cut AIR valuation by 20%, wants punters to sell. And here I was beginning to have grave doubts that shooting off my mouth too quickly on the other thread will mean I may not get to top up after all.

Dr_Who
30-05-2008, 01:25 PM
B(e)ware have cut AIR valuation by 20%, wants punters to sell. And here I was beginning to have grave doubts that shooting off my mouth too quickly on the other thread will mean I may not get to top up after all.

JBeware has a sell recommendation? Now thats a great BUY signal if I ever saw one. Time to put AIR back on my watchlist. Whats their valuation?

redzone
30-05-2008, 01:45 PM
AIR is a good indicator of where LABOUR sits in the polls....both lemons

Steve
30-05-2008, 05:54 PM
JBeware has a sell recommendation? Now thats a great BUY signal if I ever saw one. Time to put AIR back on my watchlist. Whats their valuation?

The shareprice was up 3.6% today, suggesting that others have also seen this as a buy signal... :D

Dr_Who
31-05-2008, 07:25 AM
The shareprice was up 3.6% today, suggesting that others have also seen this as a buy signal... :D

LOL.. too right :D

Look at their returns this year for brokers choice... LOL :D These guys crack me up.

CEN FRE SKT FPH PPL -17.84 6 GOLDMAN SACHS JBWERE

AMR
23-07-2008, 08:11 PM
Looks like a breakout of the trading range on good volume!

AIR has support at 108...it began the rally from this level the last time after it bottomed out in 2006 before tripling in 2007.

A break of the overhead resistance at 130 would be bullish too...

AMR
23-07-2008, 08:21 PM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=31