Electric future

[MPC]

I am starting to believe the hype around electric vehicles and the electric future of our world. I am looking at how to invest in this fledgling sector. Maybe in recharging stations and similar companies rather than resources companies. Lithium mining companies are not my thing.
Any thoughts and ideas? Long term investing in mind here. Just thinking out loud here, not much thought put into it yet.
Cheers,
MPC (currently second in this year's picking comp.)😁

[huxley]

Slide 12
https://infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx/Update-on-Morrison-and-Co-Investment-Views-233601.pdf

[MPC]

Thanks Huxley. That's what I am looking for

[huxley]

if you've got a bit of free time you may also be interested in this video:

https://youtu.be/5TMvwD-hToc

turns out even General Electric is turning into an information technology company...

[SilverBack]

Redflow in AUS deals with storage batteries. I am not invested but you could track them as a possibility.
I note your aversion to mining companies but apart from lithium, there are AUS companies for rare earths (used in magnets for electric motors) and graphite (used in batteries).
If you want manufacturing companies then you really need to look outside of AUS/NZ. Wherever you go, you are looking at high risk, early stage, start-up companies (even Tesla in USA is high risk and almost certainly over-priced at present) unless you go to Google which is moving into autonomous vehicles but has other revenue streams as well. Then there is Lyft which is moving to fleets of autonomous electric vehicles but still ealry stage high risk.
Of course, you could target electricity generation companies or resources for baseload generation. Despite optimistic claims about solar and wind plus storage batteries there will still be an ongoing demand for baseload generation provided by hydro, gas and nuclear (uranium), even in the event of EV dominance.

[Xerof]

With 38kgs of copper needed for these EV batteries (according to Glasenburg) something to do with producing copper makes sense. I've banged on about the new cycle for 6 months now, but it has only really just turned around. Plenty more upside coming in next few years, not many high grade producers out there now, and new investment got killed after the GFC, so big deficits coming (with or without millions of EV's silently sneaking around the planet, frightening old ladies at pedestrian crossings)


I would tip ASX:AVB, but you should know I'm deeply biased (and invested):mellow:

here's Glasenburg : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16/glencore-says-electric-car-boom-is-coming-faster-than-expected

[Jantar]

If the future of road transport is electric then the gentailers are the obvious place to invest. Consider that for every litre of fuel replaced by electric require around 4 kWh of electricty. The question is where is this extra electricity coming from? And that is where the future investment should be directed.

[suse]

I'm going to follow this thread as I think the future of electric vehicles is going to ramp up. As soon as they say I can use an EV on the bus lane on the Auckland motorway I'm buying! :)

Building a house and I'm definitely putting in solar -It seems like common sense to harvest the sun. Batteries are on the wish list as well but perhaps we need to wait until they are a little bit cheaper.

[Zaphod]

If the future of road transport is electric then the gentailers are the obvious place to invest. Consider that for every litre of fuel replaced by electric require around 4 kWh of electricty. The question is where is this extra electricity coming from? And that is where the future investment should be directed.

On-site generation and storage technologies like solar tiles & the Tesla Powerwall will have an impact on generators, as will the significant implications for upgrades to the grid and local power networks.

Generators do enjoy a significant economy of scale advantage though.

[Joshuatree]

Yes the world is slowly opening up its eyes to human induced global warming; i just hope its not too late.Have a look at my thread GREEN STOCKS FOR A WIN/WIN .

FND a good copper producing junior on the ASX DYOR

[xafalcon]

Do some research on "Aluminium battery technology" (also substitute aluminium for those americans who cant spell).

Lithium battery technology will always be hamstrung by the inescapable drawbacks of lithium, namely flammability. Imagine the "galaxy S7 note syndrome" if it happened in Tesla model 3's, or any other battery powered EV.

Lithium is simply the best compromise available at the moment

Aluminium is looking very promising as the next generation (pun) battery technology.

Perhaps consider this area as worthy of an investment

[Jantar]

On-site generation and storage technologies like solar tiles & the Tesla Powerwall will have an impact on generators, as will the significant implications for upgrades to the grid and local power networks.

Generators do enjoy a significant economy of scale advantage though.True. but even a Nissan Leaf requires 44kWh for a full charge and the Tesla Wall battery is 10kWh. That makes a huge solar panel - home battery requirement to charge an electric vehicle without big increases in current grid generation capability.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10936-Electric-Cars-have-we-reached-a-turning-point

[MPC]

Cheers Roger.
My thoughts are that electric vehicles are going to happen and once they become the norm this will have a major impact on our lives and the future of many companies. Where should we invest now to take advantage of this in 10 years time?
One decent investment in this if it goes off will cover a few bad investments and I am happy to take the risk.
I invested in oz resources for years and often went for the companies that supplied the miners. Thinking along those lines here as well.
Cheers,
MPC

[minimoke]

Yes the world is slowly opening up its eyes to human induced global warming; i just hope its not too late.Have a look at my thread GREEN STOCKS FOR A WIN/WIN .

FND a good copper producing junior on the ASX DYOR

I dont understand how you don't think extracting oil from the ground is good but quite happy to recommend raping the ground for non renewable copper.

[minimoke]

A company that puts transmission lines in between manapouri and the National grid?

[blackcap]

I dont understand how you don't think extracting oil from the ground is good but quite happy to recommend raping the ground for non renewable copper.

Don't let a few inconvenient truths crash the narrative mm :)

Same case with EV's. In NZ it may be environmentally friendly but in other countries with non-renewable energy sources such as coal and nuclear all you are doing is causing more harm to the environment as there is a process to convert to EV's. Much cleaner to run petrol there. That is another reason why it will take many years before EV's are the norm.

[Joshuatree]

One thing leads to another guys ,better than than just passively/aggressively doing nothing ,a step change to better things . Research into alternative sources to thermal coal wouldn't happen otherwise and until we find a replacement for copper its a necessary component; joining dots. Lets leave this world in a sustainable place.

[minimoke]

Huge new thermal resource found under alpine fault. So how about running rails along commuter lanes and building a big scalextric track in the cities.

[blobbles]

I dont understand how you don't think extracting oil from the ground is good but quite happy to recommend raping the ground for non renewable copper.

One gets put into our atmosphere and could severely change life on earth as we know it. One does not. Pretty simple distinction.

[blobbles]

Huge new thermal resource found under alpine fault. So how about running rails along commuter lanes and building a big scalextric track in the cities.

Indeed, this is a massive recent find, thermal power stations in the SI could radically change NZs energy makeup and be a huge economic boon to southerners.

[Bilbo]

Don't let a few inconvenient truths crash the narrative mm :)

Same case with EV's. In NZ it may be environmentally friendly but in other countries with non-renewable energy sources such as coal and nuclear all you are doing is causing more harm to the environment as there is a process to convert to EV's. Much cleaner to run petrol there. That is another reason why it will take many years before EV's are the norm.

Once you get the car, truck and bus fleet to be EVs, the change from fossil fuel to sustainable energy only needs to happen in a relatively small number of places - the power generators. Changing the fleet is the much larger task.

[minimoke]

One gets put into our atmosphere and could severely change life on earth as we know it. One does not. Pretty simple distinction.
Ok. Raping and pillaging non renewables is fine as long as they dont end up in the atmosphere.

[arc]

Copper won't be required, carbon / graphene will be the new material, can be coaxed into high conduction levels through nano tube structures.

We HAVE to go electric, oxygen levels are falling through use of internal combustion engines and external combustion (jet) engines.

[psychic]

Copper won't be required, carbon / graphene will be the new material, can be coaxed into high conduction levels through nano tube structures.

We HAVE to go electric, oxygen levels are falling through use of internal combustion engines and external combustion (jet) engines.

Not according to this but all dutch to me..

https://www.quora.com/Is-graphene-going-to-replace-copper-And-if-so-in-which-technology-application-will-it-happen-first

[xafalcon]

We HAVE to go electric, oxygen levels are falling through use of internal combustion engines and external combustion (jet) engines.

Utter rubbish

That statement is just as accurate as saying "All humans drink water. All humans die. Therefore drinking water will kill humans"

And a jet engine is an internal combustion engine.

The steam engine is the last example of an external combustion engine I can think of. And you believe steam engines are having a catastrophic effect on the world????????

[Joshuatree]

Steady on there xa; maybe posting some info would inform/correct arc rather than attacking him/her . From this article oxygen level falling is miniscule but not in our oceans where deadzones are happening due to O2 depletion.

Why Scientists Aren't Freaking Out About Falling Oxygen Levels | Inverse (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0ahUKEwjL7JXDxvrTAhXHppQKHRQiAkYQFgg6MAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.inverse.com%2Farticle%2F2141 9-atmospheric-oxygen-levels-falling&usg=AFQjCNH3qOYcuXtcPH71OBow2BL_kx7fiQ)

[Jantar]

..... From this article oxygen level falling is miniscule but not in our oceans where deadzones are happening due to O2 depletion.....
But note that this is due to pollution, not to burning fossil fuels "The primary contributor to these apocalyptic scenes is fertilizer runoff from agriculture, which causes algal blooms, providing a great feast for bacteria that consume oxygen. The abundance of these bacteria cause O2 levels to plummet, and if they go low enough, organisms that need it to survive swim away or die."

[GTM 3442]

Utter rubbish. . .

The steam engine is the last example of an external combustion engine I can think of. And you believe steam engines are having a catastrophic effect on the world????????

Internal or external, I suspect that it's the combustion that counts.

[GTM 3442]

Long term, what's the cost of electricity based on?

Personally, I think it's the cost of fuel.

On one side of the ledger, we have hydro, geothermal, wind, wave/tidal, and solar.
On the other side of the ledger, we have coal, oil, nuclear, biomass and gas.

The big thing that spins round and produces the electrons doesn't give two hoots what's making it spin. So why, long term, would you build a generation source which you have to keep shovelling money into to make that big spinning thing spin?

[minimoke]

The big thing that spins round and produces the electrons doesn't give two hoots what's making it spin. So why, long term, would you build a generation source which you have to keep shovelling money into to make that big spinning thing spin?
Whatever you shovel needs a consistent and reliable supply. Like coal. We have a thousand years worth sitting in the ground. Or oil - still seems to oodles of the stuff. Both of which are demonstrably "cheap".

Unlike solar which in christchurch only shines 9 hours a day in winter, or wind which is unreliable, or tidal which goes slack during peak periods. Even hydro is unreliable and dependent on rain/snowfalls - unless we get more climate change going which will create more of the wet stuff.

[blobbles]

Whatever you shovel needs a consistent and reliable supply. Like coal. We have a thousand years worth sitting in the ground. Or oil - still seems to oodles of the stuff. Both of which are demonstrably "cheap".

Unlike solar which in christchurch only shines 9 hours a day in winter, or wind which is unreliable, or tidal which goes slack during peak periods. Even hydro is unreliable and dependent on rain/snowfalls - unless we get more climate change going which will create more of the wet stuff.

Are you seriously advocating we burn coal to produce electricity minimoke? I recommend living in New Dehli or Beijing for a couple of weeks choking, getting sick and blowing your nose seeing black snot to disabuse you of that notion. There is a reason these countries are trying so hard to turn away from coal, just like the US did in the 70s and 80s. Repeating observable mistakes would be foolish to the point of absurdity. Interestingly China and India, if they continue on the same track, are likely to take up the slack of the USA in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement.

We can run all our electricity needs from renewable resources or renewable resources + nuclear for major economies and a tiny bit of peak load gas generation for when things turn really tough (snow storms etc), with a smart grid and a slight over production of renewable power. Whether we choose to or not is a different story. In NZs case we could do it so easily its barely even worth talking about burning coal as we are almost completely renewable now.

[blackcap]

We can run all our electricity needs from renewable resources or renewable resources + nuclear for major economies and a tiny bit of peak load gas generation for when things turn really tough (snow storms etc), with a smart grid and a slight over production of renewable power. Whether we choose to or not is a different story. In NZs case we could do it so easily its barely even worth talking about burning coal as we are almost completely renewable now.

In NZ plenty of coal is still burned for energy. Look at Fonterra and the milk processing plants in the SI. They are not going to stop doing so any time soon either.

[minimoke]

Could be no shortage of electricity if we can work out how to harness methane hydrate (fire ice) - with current reserves estimated to be more than all known other fossil fuels combined. Something like 280 trillion cubic meters (compared with 3.5b cubic meters of natural gas) - enough to power the world for the next 800 years. I'm still seeing city size scalextric roads in the future

[minimoke]

Are you seriously advocating we burn coal to produce electricity minimoke? I recommend living in New Dehli or Beijing for a couple of weeks choking, getting sick and blowing your nose seeing black snot to disabuse you of that notion.
Now why would you go and do that. What a senseless comparison. New Delhi population 19 million, Beijing 22m population Greymouth 13,500.

Just string a few power lines from Greymouth, or maybe the new thermal energy plant on the Alpine fault and we too can have oodles of energy without worrying about the sun or wind. Imagine it - the South Island being NZ's Texas!

[Jantar]

New Zealand's future electrity requirements are likely to be met by wind power. The problem is that wind is intermittent and we are already at the stage where wind is starting to destabilise the national grid. That means for every MW of new wind generation we need another MW of fast start hydro or gas turbine plant.

There is another way of matching future wind generation and that is with pumped storage hydro. Every 1 MW of pumped storage will allow another 2 MW of wind. There are two sites in NZ suitable for pumped storage: Lake Onslow and the Hawea - Wanaka Neck, but no-one seems to have the appetite to build them.

[Minerbarejet]

Could be no shortage of electricity if we can work out how to harness methane hydrate (fire ice) - with current reserves estimated to be more than all known other fossil fuels combined. Something like 280 trillion cubic meters (compared with 3.5b cubic meters of natural gas) - enough to power the world for the next 800 years. I'm still seeing city size scalextric roads in the future
Im seeing F1 turning into slot cars.

[minimoke]

New Zealand's future electrity requirements are likely to be met by wind power. The problem is that wind is intermittent and we are already at the stage where wind is starting to destabilise the national grid. That means for every MW of new wind generation we need another MW of fast start hydro or gas turbine plant.

There is another way of matching future wind generation and that is with pumped storage hydro. Every 1 MW of pumped storage will allow another 2 MW of wind. There are two sites in NZ suitable for pumped storage: Lake Onslow and the Hawea - Wanaka Neck, but no-one seems to have the appetite to build them.
I happen to think wind turbines are a blight on the landscape. Greenies not alright with polluting the atmosphere but visual pollution is just fine. One perfectly good hill outside Palmerston North now nothing but an eyesore. Makara used to be a pleasant escape (loved escaping there for a bit of diving and fishing) - now signs of industrialization speckle the hills all over the place. Disgusting for this "clean green country of ours!

[huxley]

I happen to think wind turbines are a blight on the landscape. Greenies not alright with polluting the atmosphere but visual pollution is just fine. One perfectly good hill outside Palmerston North now nothing but an eyesore. Makara used to be a pleasant escape (loved escaping there for a bit of diving and fishing) - now signs of industrialization speckle the hills all over the place. Disgusting for this "clean green country of ours!

I couldn't disagree more!

[Joshuatree]

Im seeing F1 turning into slot cars.

Don't need slots

Formula E (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwion6ey7_3TAhUBypQKHaGzBnsQFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fiaformulae.com%2F&usg=AFQjCNHXFvjnQ0AGqp8MEzPYwulBo3TS6Q)

[Jantar]

I happen to think wind turbines are a blight on the landscape. ....
I couldn't disagree more!
And I agree with both of you.

I like the way they have them in Austria: None permitted on ridges, and generally away from the skyline. There are often one or two in industrial areas in the cities, like the waterfront in Vienna, andlarger wind farms on farmland behind forests. We are going to see more wind farms here so lets put them in places where they won't be seen from main highways or tourist routes.

[Minerbarejet]

X
Don't need slots

Formula E (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwion6ey7_3TAhUBypQKHaGzBnsQFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fiaformulae.com%2F&usg=AFQjCNHXFvjnQ0AGqp8MEzPYwulBo3TS6Q) All very exciting, shame about having to use fossil fuels to generate the electricity, make the cars, get the population to the event and clean up afterwards.

[GTM 3442]

Whatever you shovel needs a consistent and reliable supply. Like coal. We have a thousand years worth sitting in the ground. Or oil - still seems to oodles of the stuff. Both of which are demonstrably "cheap".

Unlike solar which in christchurch only shines 9 hours a day in winter, or wind which is unreliable, or tidal which goes slack during peak periods. Even hydro is unreliable and dependent on rain/snowfalls - unless we get more climate change going which will create more of the wet stuff.

Different parts of the world and New Zealand will have a different mix of sources.

Would you build a solar plant in Christchurch? Well of course not. But you could certainly run a cable or two to a hydro station nearby. One which had a lake big enough to store (say) five years of rain, rather than one. An economy of scale?

For Wellington, possibly a heat exchanger to capture the hot air from Parliament - supplemented by methane from the *compost* from the same source.

As for coal, well all that soot just plays merry h*ll with your washing. Not a favourite at all.

Mix and match according to what's available.

[GTM 3442]

Imagine it - the South Island being NZ's Texas!

Given New Zealand's enthusiasm for environmental protection, I rather suspect it may end up more like the Niger delta.

[minimoke]

We are going to see more wind farms here so lets put them in places where they won't be seen from main highways or tourist routes.
Just like a german tourist taking a crap on a side road - Some of us prefer the non - touristed areas to remain unspoilt

[GTM 3442]

And I agree with both of you.

I like the way they have them in Austria: None permitted on ridges, and generally away from the skyline. There are often one or two in industrial areas in the cities, like the waterfront in Vienna, andlarger wind farms on farmland behind forests. We are going to see more wind farms here so lets put them in places where they won't be seen from main highways or tourist routes.

Personally I'm a fan of the Danish model. Especially the ownership structures.

[Harvey Specter]

Im seeing F1 turning into slot cars.There is pretty much no overtaken now so they may as well be on tracks.

[Joshuatree]

Played a couple of rounds of Golf at Makara about 35 years ago loved the place! Off track a bit from NZ but maybe of int.
Ive held ORE Orocobre (ASX) for years(has its own thread). First brine operation in about 15 years; in Olaroz Argentina. Has had many problems but is nearly at full production but not at nameplate yet ; producing about 12,000 tonnes lithium this year. Getting re US$10,000 to $14,000 tonne atm. Last i looked cost was re c$3500 tonne but think its higher now. latest problem is the weather! S/P down again atm due to a 30 year severe winter slowing evaporation and delivery of soda ash (essential in the production process). The local Jujuy govt have holding in the project.

[Joshuatree]

https://reneweconomy.com.au/china-connects-massive-mixed-energy-and-battery-storage-system-77919/

Electrochemical storage system

"Regardless, the project is impressive. The Luneng Haixi Multi-mixed Energy Demonstration Project is made up of 200 MW of solar PV, 50 MW of concentrated solar PV (CPV), 400 MW of wind energy, and a 100 MWh energy storage system, all connected to one another and unified and connected to the grid."

[Lewylewylewy]

Assuming EVs don't get quashed by lobbyists or some other force, i wonder where most of the money is to be made: mining battery minerals, or filling them up.

[Joshuatree]

Mining battery metals are a good starter imo. Lithium, Copper, cobalt, Nickel, lead. I have a few company's covering some of these. I havnt been savvy enough to find other ideas in other sectors of the EV production line yet. Would enjoy any input from anyone.

LTHM US LIVENT has been reccoed by my normally conservative brokers, a pure play lithium producer with an impressive(if accurate) target price. My lithium play has been for many years and currently under the pump; is ORE Orocobre, Toyota own a chunk of this lowest cost Lithium producer from brines in Argentina fwiw.

[Lewylewylewy]

Mining seems like a risky investment with high Rewards but electricity utility companies seem like a steady investment with ok Rewards

[kiora]

Surely he would know?
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/energy/onslow-project-an-analogue-solution-in-a-digital-age

Onslow project: an 'analogue solution in a digital age'
The Lake Onslow pumped hydro project is an ‘analogue solution in a digital age’ and the government even just talking about it as a possibility is chilling investment, a global energy investment manager says.

Vimal Vallabh, Morrison & Co’s (MCO) global head of energy, said the pumped hydro scheme is an outdated idea and there are better solutions to solving New Zealand’s dry year problem to ensure energy security as the country pushes towards 100% renewable electricity generation."

[xafalcon]

Surely he would know?
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/energy/onslow-project-an-analogue-solution-in-a-digital-age

Onslow project: an 'analogue solution in a digital age'
The Lake Onslow pumped hydro project is an ‘analogue solution in a digital age’ and the government even just talking about it as a possibility is chilling investment, a global energy investment manager says.

Vimal Vallabh, Morrison & Co’s (MCO) global head of energy, said the pumped hydro scheme is an outdated idea and there are better solutions to solving New Zealand’s dry year problem to ensure energy security as the country pushes towards 100% renewable electricity generation."

There may be better solutions, but nothing comes close to the economics of Lake Onslow. 5TWh of storage, 5000GWh, 5000000MWh. Switzerland has just started operating a 20GWh pumped hydro plant, which is hailed as a great success. Much more difficult (expensive) construction than Lake Onslow

Be careful what you read. Check who is sponsoring a research project. Lake Onslow will upend the NZ electricity market in 10 years time, so long as it is operated by the government as a public-good utility rather than a cash cow

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Surely he would know?
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/energy/onslow-project-an-analogue-solution-in-a-digital-age

Onslow project: an 'analogue solution in a digital age'
The Lake Onslow pumped hydro project is an ‘analogue solution in a digital age’ and the government even just talking about it as a possibility is chilling investment, a global energy investment manager says.

Vimal Vallabh, Morrison & Co’s (MCO) global head of energy, said the pumped hydro scheme is an outdated idea and there are better solutions to solving New Zealand’s dry year problem to ensure energy security as the country pushes towards 100% renewable electricity generation."

He has a giant vested interest in Onslow not going ahead. Can’t take anything he says seriously.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

In NZ plenty of coal is still burned for energy. Look at Fonterra and the milk processing plants in the SI. They are not going to stop doing so any time soon either.

Fonterra has already announced they are converting all these plants to renewable energy.

plus NZ coal is crap for electricity generation - which is why the remaining coal fired power plants import coal form overseas.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I happen to think wind turbines are a blight on the landscape. Greenies not alright with polluting the atmosphere but visual pollution is just fine. One perfectly good hill outside Palmerston North now nothing but an eyesore. Makara used to be a pleasant escape (loved escaping there for a bit of diving and fishing) - now signs of industrialization speckle the hills all over the place. Disgusting for this "clean green country of ours!

LOLWUT - windmills are glorious.

[Snoopy]

Plus NZ coal is crap for electricity generation - which is why the remaining coal fired power plants import coal form overseas.


That coal we mine on the West Coast and send overseas for steel making. That could equally well be burned at Huntly for electricity production. But that coal does not contain the impurities found in alternative coal deposits, that would make those alternative coal deposits unsuitable for steel making. There are other lower quality coal deposits in NZ that we could access for power generation at Huntly. But at this stage in the global warming cycle, I think it would be politically unacceptable to open up a new coal mine to do that! So to summarize , we could burn West Coast coal at Huntly perfectly well. It is just that it would be a waste of good steel making coal to do so.

SNOOPY

[kiora]

New Zealander, Josh Whale making a difference in Rwanda
https://www.ampersand.solar/

[xafalcon]

The world is on the cusp of the electricity revolution. The gas supply issue in the EU, together with fires and droughts in EU and USA will bring about a massive investment in renewable generation. This will potentially retard some development in NZ as renewable generation equipment manufacturers prioritise supply to their own markets. Wind turbines in particular because EU is a major supplier. These are the companies I would be investing in

Also worth considering are copper and aluminium, which are both used for electrical conductors. A lot more grid capacity will need to be built to support electrification

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Interesting comments on Onslow project, also says Huntley is currently costing 30c a kilowatt hour due to surging coal price (4x the cost of wind power).

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129543702/lake-onslow-power-scheme-pioneer-criticises-idea-of-ugly-concrete-dam

[JBmurc]

Surely he would know?
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/energy/onslow-project-an-analogue-solution-in-a-digital-age

Onslow project: an 'analogue solution in a digital age'
The Lake Onslow pumped hydro project is an ‘analogue solution in a digital age’ and the government even just talking about it as a possibility is chilling investment, a global energy investment manager says.

Vimal Vallabh, Morrison & Co’s (MCO) global head of energy, said the pumped hydro scheme is an outdated idea and there are better solutions to solving New Zealand’s dry year problem to ensure energy security as the country pushes towards 100% renewable electricity generation."

Esp.. when you look at the issues of the Hydro scheme on the Clutha river..

. the engineers who designed the Roxburgh dam never expected its reservoir to “silt up” so quickly. There have been unconfirmed reports that the dam’s two low level sluice gates were jammed and rendered inoperable within the first 15 years, indicating reservoir-wide sediment transport to the dam wall.

New Zealand’s first concrete gravity dam was commissioned in 1956 on the Clutha River near Roxburgh. It represented the progress and hope of a new era, bringing electricity to the masses. At the time, large dams were designed in relative isolation to their environments, with little regard given to future impacts, and none whatsoever given to the ultimate challenge of decommissioning. Today, thousands of ageing dams around the world are nearing the end of their economic life cycle, and dam removal and river restoration is becoming an accepted reality.

Although large concrete gravity dams have a theoretical design life of 80-100 years, the actual lifespan of a dam is determined by the rate at which its reservoir fills with sediment. In severely eroding catchments, millions of cubic metres of sediment can be transported annually. The average lifespan of a large dam in China is 45 years.

http://mightyclutha.blogspot.com/2010/02/decommissioning-roxburgh-dam.html

I live next door to "lake Dunstan" .... and the slit buildup in places just in a few years I've lived here is a worry ... lake very brown slit looking after all the rain we got ..


As for NZ not having much coal..

New Zealand has in-ground coal resources of more than 16 billion tonnes, of which 80% are lignite in the South Island...

[850man]

..... As for NZ not having much coal..

New Zealand has in-ground coal resources of more than 16 billion tonnes, of which 80% are lignite in the South Island...

well we can forget about that and about the oil and natural gas that's sitting untapped off our shores, green ideology over practicality of energy supply have put end to any of that. Indonesia, ship us more dirty coal, we're far to environmentally focused to use any fossil fuels

[JBmurc]

well we can forget about that and about the oil and natural gas that's sitting untapped off our shores, green ideology over practicality of energy supply have put end to any of that. Indonesia, ship us more dirty coal, we're far to environmentally focused to use any fossil fuels

Yes we are the NIMBY #1 nation .. we have one of the highest ICE ownerships per population in the world... yet our Govt virtue signals like we are leading the green movement >>

[mcdongle]

Ive been wading through this report on and off.

https://www.gtk.fi/en/time-to-wake-up/

Will we actually be able to transform to green energy?

[BlackPeter]

Ive been wading through this report on and off.

https://www.gtk.fi/en/time-to-wake-up/

Will we actually be able to transform to green energy?

I guess reducing our environmental footprint always works. We probably just end up with less vehicles, less travel and less waste. More walking, cycling and public transport and less unnecessary travel would be a start. Our choice whether we reduce our environmental footprint or whether nature reduces our numbers.

But in a way it feels a bit like the 1890'íes when scientists predicted traffic in towns will break down because cities will get burried in horse droppings ...

[kiora]

It needs something like this
"Cummins Calls Dibs On New Long Duration Energy Storage Iron Salt Formula"
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/08/18/cummins-calls-dibs-on-new-long-duration-energy-storage-iron-salt-formula/

[xafalcon]

It needs something like this
"Cummins Calls Dibs On New Long Duration Energy Storage Iron Salt Formula"
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/08/18/cummins-calls-dibs-on-new-long-duration-energy-storage-iron-salt-formula/

It is highly unlikely that the economics of Lake Onslow will be beaten by any alternative energy storage methods. Lake Onslow combines the reliability and flexibility of hydro with an extremely long equipment usage lifetime and open ended energy storage period with minimal evaporative losses. Lake Onslow also allows for a significant increase in intermittent renewable generation without grid stability issues

The only real issue is political

[Jantar]

Esp.. when you look at the issues of the Hydro scheme on the Clutha river..

. the engineers who designed the Roxburgh dam never expected its reservoir to “silt up” so quickly. There have been unconfirmed reports that the dam’s two low level sluice gates were jammed and rendered inoperable within the first 15 years, indicating reservoir-wide sediment transport to the dam wall.....
Yes, the low level sluices did jam up in the 1970s, but not due to silt. It was due to rust from lack of use. A floating caisson was designed and built to block off the sluices while they were repaired.

One of the sluices jammed again in the late 1990s and actually damaged the concrete when a roller came misaligned. Following that incident the sluices were modified with hydraulic lifting equipment to replace the old winch style.

The low level sluices are now regularly used during flood events.

Siltation is an issue in Lake Roxburgh, and yes, it did happen faster than expected. However since 1994 there has been a flushing regime during large floods that keeps that silt moving downstream. It is effective in that the volume of silt in Lake Roxburgh has been reduced over the past 25 years.

When Clyde was built that also had the effect of reducing the amount of silt entering Lake Roxburgh. It was expected that it would take 150 years from dam completion before any action would be needed. That time frame has now been reduced to 125 years as there is less sedimentation transported down to Roxburgh than what was expected

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Given what we have seen over thee last 2 months in Europe, China and USA, with lakes/rivers literally drying up - it jsut makes the Onslow proposal even more attractive.

Meanwhile, in related news, Tesla has a 12% (!) share of New Zealand new passenger car sales in August. Phenomenal.

[Snoopy]

Siltation is an issue in Lake Roxburgh, and yes, it did happen faster than expected. However since 1994 there has been a flushing regime during large floods that keeps that silt moving downstream. It is effective in that the volume of silt in Lake Roxburgh has been reduced over the past 25 years.

When Clyde was built that also had the effect of reducing the amount of silt entering Lake Roxburgh. It was expected that it would take 150 years from dam completion before any action would be needed. That time frame has now been reduced to 125 years as there is less sedimentation transported down to Roxburgh than what was expected


I am not following you on the effect of Clyde on Roxburgh Jantar. You say that less silt is now coming down to Roxburgh and so the time frame to take any action against silting has been reduced from 150 years to 125 years? I would have thought that with less silt coming down the river, then that would mean the 'silting up requires remedial action' time would increase, not decrease?

However if the first paragraph I quoted from you is correct, then there is no silting problem at all because you tell us that 'flushing events' have reduced the silt in Lake Roxburgh. So if sediment in Roxburgh can be made to go down over 25 years, then there is no silting problem at Roxburgh at all, is there?

Whether the silting up time frame was 125 years or 150 years though, that is long enough to make sure the engineers that designed and commissioned the dam would be long since dead! Even a junior engineer starting at Clyde today would be retired by the time the 125 year Roxburgh countdown was up. So with both Roxburgh and Clyde running on the short term corporate profit model, I imagine no-one at Contact worries much about long term silting up?

SNOOPY

[Jantar]

I am not following you on the effect of Clyde on Roxburgh Jantar. You say that less silt is now coming down to Roxburgh and so the time frame to take any action against silting has been reduced from 150 years to 125 years? I would have thought that with less silt coming down the river, then that would mean the 'silting up requires remedial action' time would increase, not decrease?

However if the first paragraph I quoted from you is correct, then there is no silting problem at all because you tell us that 'flushing events' have reduced the silt in Lake Roxburgh. So if sediment in Roxburgh can be made to go down over 25 years, then there is no silting problem at Roxburgh at all, is there?

Whether the silting up time frame was 125 years or 150 years though, that is long enough to make sure the engineers that designed and commissioned the dam would be long since dead! Even a junior engineer starting at Clyde today would be retired by the time the 125 year Roxburgh countdown was up. So with both Roxburgh and Clyde running on the short term corporate profit model, I imagine no-one at Contact worries much about long term silting up?

SNOOPY

The major source of siltation is the Shotover river, and it was always known that the Clyde dam would halt this source. Using data available in 1979 when the Clyde dam was designed it was thought at that time that it would take 150 years before the tipping front of the silt layer would reach the base of the Clyde dam, but that very fine silt suspended in the water would continue to pass through Clyde and on to Roxburgh. With experience, it is now known that not as much suspended silt is passing through as expected and hence the rate of siltation of Clyde is slightly faster than expected.

The long term effects are not just a concern for the long term operation of the two dams, but are also part of the resource consent conditions. Flushing is working at Roxburgh, just as it does at many other large dam sites around the world. When the silt tipping face reaches Clyde, then a flushing procedure will be refined for that dam as well.

[Snoopy]

The major source of siltation is the Shotover river, and it was always known that the Clyde dam would halt this source. Using data available in 1979 when the Clyde dam was designed it was thought at that time that it would take 150 years before the tipping front of the silt layer would reach the base of the Clyde dam, but that very fine silt suspended in the water would continue to pass through Clyde and on to Roxburgh. With experience, it is now known that not as much suspended silt is passing through as expected and hence the rate of siltation of Clyde is slightly faster than expected.


OK, thank you for qualifying that. I thought that in the two paragraphs below, you were talking entirely about Roxburgh. But now I see that when you were talking about the silting time going down from 150 years to 125 years, you were actually talking about Clyde. It makes sense now.



Siltation is an issue in Lake Roxburgh, and yes, it did happen faster than expected. However since 1994 there has been a flushing regime during large floods that keeps that silt moving downstream. It is effective in that the volume of silt in Lake Roxburgh has been reduced over the past 25 years.

When Clyde was built that also had the effect of reducing the amount of silt entering Lake Roxburgh. It was expected that it would take 150 years from dam completion before any action would be needed. That time frame has now been reduced to 125 years as there is less sedimentation transported down to Roxburgh than what was expected




The long term effects are not just a concern for the long term operation of the two dams, but are also part of the resource consent conditions. Flushing is working at Roxburgh, just as it does at many other large dam sites around the world. When the silt tipping face reaches Clyde, then a flushing procedure will be refined for that dam as well.


In my ignorance I hadn't thought much about silting before. Partly because I have never seen the issue raised in any annual reports or presentations. And also, in the case of Contact, that I had assumed that each of the Clyde and Roxburgh dams had weeks or months of water stored in them. Not that they were operating on storage values measured in days and hours. The point being that if the norm is for a lake to hold weeks and months of water supply, then it is difficult to imagine that the turbulence of soil laced water, replenishing that reservoir, would have a major effect on water and suspended soil in the entire lake. Now I know that both Clyde and Roxburgh are 'run of the river' dams, the silting issue makes more sense.

I also had the impression that any silt on the bottom of Lake Dunstan and Lake Roxburgh, if it was an issue, would be more or less be distributed evenly. But from what you are saying Jantar, the silt builds up at the back and gradually creeps forward to the dam face. You imply that this has already happened at Roxburgh, and that the effects of that are already being well controlled by flushing. But, of course, with Lake Roxburgh being "filled from the back" and reducing the lakes reservoir capacity, eventually that may make the flooding risk upstream at Alexandra untenable?

Did you read JBMurc's link on the future of the Clutha?

http://mightyclutha.blogspot.com/2010/02/decommissioning-roxburgh-dam.html

That paints a very different future, outlining what should happen when, not if, the Roxburgh Dam is decommissioned and deconstructed.

"The reservoir has highly unfavourable impoundment geomorphology, having both a river confluence and a severe natural constriction at its head. Gold-miners knew this narrow section, some 675 metres below Alexandra, as the “Gates of the Gorge.” "

I don't understand the context of the above quote from the Clutha blogspot article. It sounds to me as though the 'Gates of the Gorge' area is an almost ideal natural flushing feature - not a negative.

If silting is really a potential terminal risk to Roxburgh, it strikes me that the best solution would be to construct a temporary by pass for the dam and simply dig the seventy odd years of silt accumulation out of the bottom of Lake Roxburgh. Then the Roxburgh dam would be 'fit for propose' just as it was in 1956.

Contrary to your claim of flushing reducing 'silt build up' at Roxburgh, the blogspot article disagrees:
"bedload re-distribution tends to decrease with each subsequent flushing cycle, and although some sediment is moved into deeper parts of the reservoir nearer the dam, very little of this achieves sufficient suspension to be washed out into the lower river. Flushing is simply a way of “buying time.” "

SNOOPY

[Jantar]

…..

Did you read JBMurc's link on the future of the Clutha?

http://mightyclutha.blogspot.com/2010/02/decommissioning-roxburgh-dam.html ......

SNOOPY
Yes, that website was first produced during the Clutha river re-consenting. It was taken down, then re-published. However it is absolutely full of errors and incorrect claims. I wont try and detail them here as they involved many weeks of testimony in the consent hearings and environment court.

Silting is not a terminal risk to Roxburgh. It could have been if flushing wasn't carried out, but now that flushing is being done, siltation is controlled. And yes, the Narrows (or Gates of the Gorge) is where flushing has its most effect. It is also the siltation above this point that contributed to the flooding of Alexandra in 1995 and 1999.

The claim of bedload redistribution actually comes from the consent hearings, and was a way of buying time until the heavier bedload reached the dam face. That happened in 2017 when the process of using the low level sluices to move the heavier sediment downs stream was instated. The low level sluices do not require the material be in suspension.

As for decommissioning and removing Roxburgh dam, that would be an environmental disaster, if it could even be done.
The largest dam removal project in history is the Elwha ecosystem project in USA. Both the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams are very small compared to Roxburgh, and were not huge gravity dams.