RLE- REAL Energy --Cooper basin-- Nat Gas

[JBmurc]

-Market cap- 19mill
-cash 6mill end of march
SP- 8.5c

Significant gas resources: Independently Estimated Total Mean Gas in
place amount to 13.76 TCF and maiden 3C gas resource of 672BCF.

May17-Research report target price 16c

http://www.realenergy.com.au/images/2017/Equity_Research-Real_Energy.pdf

Real Energy (ASX: RLE) is a simple, straight-forward shot at gaining exposure to a potentially large onshore gas resource in Australia.

We’ve been tracking RLE, and its chances of hydrocarbon success over the past few years.
In our last update, ‘RLE to Frac in Coming Days as M&A Activity Hots Up’, published around this time last year, RLE was gearing up to begin an extensive fracking program.
Since then, RLE has confirmed a significant gas discovery in the Cooper Basin and is continuing to progress exploration and development activities at Windorah.

The pieces are coming together as RLE works towards commercialising its project.
In late January, RLE recommenced operations at the Tamarama-1 well and has successfully brought the well on with intermittent free-flowing operations.
Tamarama-1 is proving up the Basin Centred Gas concept and is a key step in RLE’s efforts to commercialise the Windorah Gas Project.

RLE is now witnessing a stronger and faster build-up of pressure and more gas flowing to surface from Tamarama-1. It intends to continue to flow the well to enable it to collect and determine reservoir performance data as it works towards commercialisation.

Its non-binding MoU with the $7.5 billion capped Australian mining giant Santos to supply raw gas from Windorah to be processed into sales gas and then be supplied to the east Australian gas market is a big step forward for the company.

Santos and its joint venture partners have gas processing facilities at Moomba in South Australia and RLE and Santos, as Operator of the Moomba gas plant, have agreed indicative terms for gas progressing and transportation services.

The terms of the agreement form the basis for a subsequent formal binding agreement which could inevitably support the economic development of the Windorah Gas Project.
RLE has also agreed in principle to swap geological data for its wells for geological data for a nearby well drilled by Santos.
The MOU with Santos could give RLE a clear pathway to commercialisation without the need to build an expensive gas plant and other associated infrastructure.​

[Joshuatree]

Good one JB.An Aussie friend is into this. Ive decided i have to sell a few before i buy anymore stocks , atm far too many but this and BRU and OEL i think it is, are on the list.

[JBmurc]

BRU OEL nasty downtrends ....but should see a bounce into JULY/Aug after tax loss season ends any day now... but where they go from there ?

I'm sure lot to do with the OIL price ,,,, AWE , HZN , TAP some others that would fit the same mould .....real bad market sentiment i this sector


But not so for the Aus east coast gas market ... pretty much the dead opposite ... BUL continues to charge >>> RLE could well be the next to double IMHO

[JBmurc]

Got my fill today @8.4c ....great to see it close the day @8.9c big Gap in the depth

[JBmurc]

Ended up taking a quick profit sold @ 9c for $800+ profit for the overnight hold .... will be keen to get back on board again soon

[Joshuatree]

Great stuff JB; reminds of a once favourite clever, jazzy/rock ,hilarious,dirty album ,Overnite Sensation by Frank Zappa.

Frank Zappa - Overnite Sensation - YouTube (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&ved=0ahUKEwjdyMOU3-bUAhUIw7wKHafQAY4QFghRMAk&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fplaylist%3Flis t%3DPL58648704206D8002&usg=AFQjCNExRAGolo7JC44V6ekumV81rpoG-w)

[JBmurc]

Brown said that he expected to provide an update on gas sales agreements in the near term, a potential share price catalyst for a stock that brokers see as undervalued.
Given RLE is debt free with $6 million in cash, producing assets, an important MOU with Santos and the prospect of near-term domestic offtake agreements, its enterprise value of $14 million (market capitalisation: $20 million) appears well below fair value.
Broker views Real Energy as a potential ten-bagger​


Analysts at Hunter Capital Advisors have a high opinion of RLE. The broker’s current valuation of 16 cents per share represents a premium of more than 80% to this morning’s opening price of 8.7 cents.



Back in for even more this time 8.6c .....

[JBmurc]

Less than a fortnight after Real Energy (ASX: RLE) informed the market that it was witnessing a stronger and faster build-up of pressure and more gas flowing to surface from its Tamarama-1 well located in the Cooper Basin of Queensland, prominent institutional investment house, Credit Suisse Holdings (Australia) Limited has emerged as a substantial shareholder with a stake of just over 5%.

FinFeed noted in June that any news regarding gas sales agreements should on balance be a share price catalyst, particularly given the fact that some analysts see the stock as significantly undervalued.

Hunter Capital Advisors initiated coverage of the stock in May, saying, “As the company matures its 2C resource into reserves, we believe the stock will rerate with its valuation increasing to 52 cents per share on a 50% risk weighting”.

The broker currently values RLE’s 3C resource alone at 38 cents per share and expects significant share price accretion as the company builds on this resource.

As highlighted in the FinFeed article, and supported by the following projections out to 2036, the supply/demand dynamics for Cooper Basin gas, particularly in terms of supplying Queensland’s eastern seaboard hubs should work in RLE’s favour.


https://finfeed.com/energy/rle/credit-suisse-takes-sizeable-stake-real-energy/20170706/

[JBmurc]

Real Energy secures gas sales for Windorah
July 17, 20174:19pm

Newsbites Finance
Real Energy (ASX: RLE) has secured sale of gas from its Windorah Gas Project in the Cooper Basin, Queensland, with a 15% surge in its share price in the first half hour of trading.
The company has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Weston Energy Pty Ltd.
Weston Energy is a gas retailer created by Weston Aluminium Pty Ltd, an established privately owned manufacturing company. The group is cognisant of the importance of having access to a competitively priced gas supply, and the agreement with RLE aims to secure energy supply, a crucial factor in continuing to operate at optimum efficiencies.
The MOU represents a significant step towards signing a binding gas sales agreement between the two parties, covering the purchasing by Weston Energy of 3 petajoules of gas per year for a period of five years.
Management noted that a future binding gas sales agreement would be subject to a number of conditions, including the client finalising gas transportation arrangements.
Weston Energy will make a prepayment of $6 million, which will give RLE additional financial flexibility to execute future field development activities.
This agreement also allows RLE to convert its 2C and 3C resources into reserves, upgrading the valuation attributed to its assets. An independent petroleum engineering group has assessed the 3C gas resources of the project at 672 billion cubic feet of gas.
Institutional investor Credit Suisse sees the company as representing good value having recently emerged as a substantial shareholder with a stake of circa 5%.
Analysts also have a positive view of the company with Hunter Capital Advisors initiating coverage of the stock in May with a buy recommendation and a valuation of 38 cents per share attributed to its 3C resource, which it expects will increase to circa 52 cents per share as resources are converted to reserves.
With RLE having 100% ownership of three large permits in Queensland, initially focusing on the Toolachee and Patchawarra formations, well known throughout the basin for holding and producing gas, it is positioned to take advantage of increasing demand from East Coast users.
As RLE has already completed substantial seismic interpretation in conjunction with existing petroleum well data it has positioned itself to take advantage of this acreage with strong news flow expected over the next 12 months.
This should also be complemented by further developments regarding commercialisation of the Windorah Gas Project with managing director Scott Brown looking forward to providing further updates on additional gas sales agreements.
While Weston Energy is the foundation customer for the Windorah Gas Project, RLE has already forged important relationships in terms of progressing this initiative, including the signing of an MOU with Santos for Windorah's gas processing.
finfeed.com: Trevor Hoey

[stones]

Yes may the good times roll

[shasta]

I sold out av around 9.5c into the run yesterday, but weird price action to drop so far back. Has this become a hotcopper plaything already?

[JBmurc]

Not sure shasta..RLE looks briliant all we need is commercial flow rates and it will be on its way towards 50c+
gutted on family holiday in Auckland and didn't get to the net till later in the day ....had I been around at open I would have sold half @10c

And would for sure been Buying back in at these levels ...

[Hectorplains]

Yeah, who'd have thunk it? The depth suggests a real chance to pick up in the shallow 8's tomorrow morning.... and that's what I'll be doing!

[JBmurc]

Yeah, who'd have thunk it? The depth suggests a real chance to pick up in the shallow 8's tomorrow morning.... and that's what I'll be doing!

Yes only Negative I could see keeping buyers away would be no recent update on dewatering Tamarama-1 ...longer it takes more holders worry and buyers sit on their hands >> yet with recent ann's I find it hard to believe of any major issues....

still till the update many will wait>> even I have spare funds after taking some profits in MGX today ,,we get good Tamarama ann>> and I'll be adding to my already large interest >>

[Hectorplains]

Yes only Negative I could see keeping buyers away would be no recent update on dewatering Tamarama-1 ...longer it takes more holders worry and buyers sit on their hands >> yet with recent ann's I find it hard to believe of any major issues....

still till the update many will wait>> even I have spare funds after taking some profits in MGX today ,,we get good Tamarama ann>> and I'll be adding to my already large interest >>

Jumped in today, mid 8's. Can't see it lingering here for much longer.

[JBmurc]

Jumped in today, mid 8's. Can't see it lingering here for much longer.

Yes if we get a good ann on Tamarama-1 then I could see the SP double >>> compare market values to the likes of STX and BUL ....RLE should well catch up soon

[Hectorplains]

Yes if we get a good ann on Tamarama-1 then I could see the SP double >>> compare market values to the likes of STX and BUL ....RLE should well catch up soon

Could be that it's catch up time now. Up 20+ % today. Chart looks strong.

[JBmurc]

Yes Very nice and so much more to come I see the M&M guys talking up RLE as a 10 bagger potential

[Hectorplains]

Yes Very nice and so much more to come I see the M&M guys talking up RLE as a 10 bagger potential

Exposure to the impending Aust. gas 'crisis', be it through Blue, Real or others , is not just ginchy but backed up by solid FA. Fun times!

[JBmurc]

Exposure to the impending Aust. gas 'crisis', be it through Blue, Real or others , is not just ginchy but backed up by solid FA. Fun times!

Yes glad I grabbed a few more at their recent lows .... so very undervalued to peers STX BUL COI etc

[Hectorplains]

Yes glad I grabbed a few more at their recent lows .... so very undervalued to peers STX BUL COI etc

I'm holding BUL and RLE. I'm thinking about COI too. Good takeover potential for all three.

[JBmurc]

I'm holding BUL and RLE. I'm thinking about COI too. Good takeover potential for all three.

Yes majors like STO will want to secure more Gas for their own contracts ...etc .... personal IMHO RLE will reward the most % wise ..but all will rise

[JBmurc]

Mr Scott Brown emailed this response to our email yesterday and We thank him for taking the time and courtesy to reply.

Good Luck All


We feel it is the best interest of the Company to raise capital at this time. This will allow us to accelerate our program and give us circa $9M to fund the drilling of 2 wells. Gas projects are very capital intensive to bring into production. Our company has used comparatively little capital to get where we are with a contingent resource of 672 Bcf. We are very efficient in how we run the business. We see a great opportunity over the next three years with the gas market and we need to move now. While we may have some short term pain the Company will get re rated particular if we can get into production, which we are very confident about. Also, we will be able to move our contingent resources into reserves, which would move the dial big time.


The board was not willing to sign up to a drilling program until we had the funds in the bank. This placement gave us enough funds to commit to this program. We could do what a number of other listed companies in the sector - that is sit on their projects and not do any field work (ie Blue Energy) but our view is to have a go. We are not a lifestyle company. We see 2 wells as probably the minimum for the program.


In recent times we have thought about the best way to advance our existing project. After considering many options include a full takeover for the Company, we believe the current raise is the best way forward in that it gives us certainty, is the least dilutive and gets us to our medium term objective of production.


I should also mention that I am the biggest single shareholder in the Company. I have lots of incentive to see a higher share price. While directors can not participate in a placement, I have recently asked the board for approval to buy shares on the market. I intend to top up if the price comes down to 9 cents.


Kind Regards
Scott brown

[JBmurc]

Good to see the soild bounce off 8.9c lows today to hit a 10.5c high ....really going depend on the news flow(which could be pretty stale) ..as unlikely to see the two new wells getting drilled till after the rain season now ..

9c Cap raising insto overhang will certainly cap RLE movements for this year IMHO ...

IMHO if it wasn't for the CR RLE would be trading around 13-14c (just look at BUL)

A Great Mid term BUY n HOLD ...

disc- sold a third today(but will buy on weakness closer to drill date)

[Hectorplains]

Good to see the soild bounce off 8.9c lows today to hit a 10.5c high ....really going depend on the news flow(

Yep, a lot depends on Tamarama 1 gas flows. Confirmation needed that the plunger lift is increasing flow (of gas not water!)

[JBmurc]

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/real-energys-shares-double-fulfils-resource-promises/

[Joshuatree]

Thanks JB; we are well positioned and i have a bag of marshmallows handy:D

[Hectorplains]

Quarterly update today was...meh. Gas flows at T1 are up but still too much water. The decision to drill T2 and 3 indicates they can't just wait any longer. There's gas there but RLE are a way off being able to do something with it . I'm questioning why I'm continuing holding...

[Joshuatree]

Yes they blame fracking and opening a coal seam rather than it being an indicator that most of the gas would have leaked out (when water flows like that) is my understanding and that it can take months or a year to dewater. Not such a stock for the quick trader Shortest Attention Span EVER! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fghZKSwvVE)
Spruiking themselves:cool:
High Rewards :Successfully projects can result in significant valuation upside 10 bagger or more


In Australian contextWoodside share price has increased 3,544% against the market 666% since March 1985 (ignoring dividends)

QGC share price increased 2,875% over 8 years from its IPO Norm Zillion, a director of Real Energy was founder ofQGC and pioneer of Coal Seam Gas.
But comes with risks
In the history of the oil and gas industry history is 2 out 3 wells drilled are dusters , that is lot of capital to burn;Geological, Operational and Commodity risks need to be carefully managed and mitigated as far possible
So does financial risks 1we are very efficient with our use of capital
Real Energy’s objective is maximum the upside while minimising risks.

[JBmurc]

Well we were peaking at 1 mmscfd quite recently we are now at a peak rate of 2 mmscfd so a pretty nice increase in Gas flow rates... yeah water could be around for awhile longer (others have had the same issues like Queensland Gas QGC).. I don't see the market really getting real interested again till T2 starts (T3 will be the cherry on the top if T2 looks good)

...My Big Question is when that will happen with the wet season soon to be here ... I agree in the very short term a HOLD but longer term RLE does have the makings of a Muti Bagger...

Any more MOU's or definite drill date will help pre Xmas

[JBmurc]

From DEC qtr report ---8.4mill in cash

Exploration
During the December 2017 Quarter we continued flow back operations from Tamarama 1. The well
continued to improve gas flow to surface, which was in line with our expectations. The plunger lift
system was successfully operating on the automated flow and buildup cycle mode during the quarter
and continued to meet our expectations.
Preparation is well advanced for the drilling of two additional appraisal wells - Tamarama-2 and 3. We
are expecting significant improvements in wells production performance benefitting from a
combination of factors, resulting from our research and data obtained from Tamarama-1 including
design, completion and fracture stimulation methods. We believe this will greatly enhance the
economics of the Windorah project.
Well sites location have been selected and cleared with relevant approvals in place including cultural
heritage clearance and landholder access. Longlead items such as casings and wellheads for the drilling
program have been purchased or secured. Real Energy has not yet contracted a drilling rig but has
been in discussions with several drilling contractors. We have rejected a proposal that included
mobilisation and demobilisation that was in excess of $2.5 Million. A more recent proposal has
significantly reduced this cost with discussions continuing. We are hopeful that we can finalise
negotiations on this rig shortly

[JBmurc]

REAL ENERGY TO COMMENCE HIGH IMPACT
COOPER BASIN DRILLING IN EARLY APRIL
 Drilling contract with Ensign International executed
 Contract signed for two firm appraisal wells Tamarama- 2 & Tamarama- 3 in ATP927P
 Preparation for field operations underway
 Fully funded for the drilling of 2 wells
 Pilot production to be established if wells are successful
 Real well placed to unlock significant value from its prospective Cooper Basin acreage
Sydney, 16th March 2018: Cooper Basin focused oil & gas exploration company Real Energy Corporation
Limited (ASX: RLE) (“Real Energy”) advises that it has signed a contract with Ensign International for drilling
services at its 100%-owned ATP927P exploration permit in the Windorah project, Cooper Basin, in early April
2018.
A contract has been signed for Rig 964 to drill the two pilot development wells, Tamarama - 2 & Tamarama
- 3. If the wells are successful, Real Energy will look to establish pilot production out of the wells and look to
connect flow lines so that sales gas can then be supplied to Australia’s East Coast gas market.
Wellsite and access roads construction for the drilling of the two wells will commence within the next few
days. Real Energy is implementing the Research and Development it has gathered from the drilling, testing
and fracture stimulation from Tamarama-1, and this knowledge is being used to work up a drilling program
for a deviated well design suitable for multi-stage fracs for both wells.
These wells represent a major catalyst to potentially convert Real Energy’s contingent resources into
reserves, and ultimately into production. The other aim is to start proving up the delivery of basin centred
gas play within ATP927 which has a prospective resource estimated by De Golyer & Mac Naugton to be 13.7
Trillion Cubic Feet of gas initially in place.

[Joshuatree]

Yes its great to be back in black with this one also. Predictions of mid may for first Tamarama drill result.Plenty of cash to do both by the looks ,$8 mill plus.
Investor Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4078033/)

[bermuda]

Yes,
this is worth following. It has not quite been proven but if you want to change your life put as much as you can on this one with a risk factor of 20%.
I have only 200k shares but wish I had more. This could get seriously big.
DYOR

[JBmurc]

Yes did some numbers and I came out with $1.50-$2 SP if RLE can indeed convert Prospective resources to 2p-2c

also not holding enough ...would love to have 1mill but less than half that

[JBmurc]

TAMARAMA 2 WELL SPUDDED

Not long now

[JBmurc]

Managing Director of Real Energy Mr Scott Brown commented: “We have made considerable progress with
the Windorah Gas Project and are well on track with our strategy to develop the field and move towards the
much anticipated production phase. The consistent gas-charged sandstone formations encountered in both
Tamarama-2 and Tamarama-3 provide us with excellent results which are consistent with our geological
model and align with the pre drilling predictions.”
“Windorah gas project is potentially a huge gas resource, based on the in place gas resources of over 13.7 Tcf,
and we have a lot of scope to progressively develop Windorah Gas Project which sits within a proven
hydrocarbon province. We have over 682,000 acres, making Real Energy’s project one of the largest 100%
independently owned positions in the Cooper Basin.”

[JBmurc]

https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/more-oil-and-gas-m-and-a-on-the-horizon-20180601-p4ziy5.html

“The latest EY report found that 73 per cent of oil and gas executives expect to complete more deals in the next 12 months compared with 37 per cent just six months ago. It isn’t surprising, therefore, that 74 per cent expect their M&A pipeline to increase in the next year,” EY global oil and gas transaction leader Andy Brogan said.

[JBmurc]

AGL chief executive Andy Vesey. AGL finds itself a tool of pre-election retail politics. Louie Douvis
by Matthew Stevens
It beggars belief that AGL could plead any sort of ignorance as a defence in its bid to resist Federal Energy Minister Josh Freydenberg's determined effort to make the gentailer the scapegoat in Australia's energy wars.

The AGL proposition, as reported in The Australian Financial Review on Monday, is that a decision made in December 2015 to sell $2 billion worth of gas to the Santos-operated liquid natural gas plant in Queensland was made to look "very poor" and "irresponsible" by a set of circumstances that were unpredictable and thus not anticipated.

But the AGL executive and board need only to have read and understood a seminal 2014 study into the "cliff edge" state of NSW gas markets to appreciate that the profit-buttressing 2015 deal left the business exposed to greater risk of being short of gas.

Advertisement
From an AGL perspective, this wasn't just another paper that exposed the increasingly fragile state of east coast gas markets. It was authored by AGL's then chief economist, Paul Simahauser, and its head of sustainability, Tim Nelson. It was published under the badge of the AGL Applied Economic and Policy Research. And it is still carried on the gentailer's digital gateway for intelligence, the AGLblog (though under the less than inviting title of Working Paper No. 40). The real title of the work is "Solving for 'x" – The New South Wales Gas Supply Cliff". The "x" in this case refers to gas supply or, rather, the impending lack of it.

[​IMG]
Australia's best manager of progress in LNG is Oil Search's Peter Botten. He is as commercially savvy as he is politically adroit. Daniel Munoz
'Material' shortages
AGL
AGL ENERGY FPO (AGL)
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5 YEARS
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Last updated: Thu Jun 21 2018 - 9:16:36 pm
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ASX Announcements Expand
Among the many gems of foresight, the study noted: "In our base case scenario, the extent of shortages in NSW is very material. In all there are 118 days of energy shortages or 'event days' per annum with varying degrees of intensity. To be sure, these results are mild by comparison to the Independent Market Operator equivalent case."

After assessing that the "median shortage in NSW was 102 terajoules per day (TJ/d)", the study warned: "The maximum shortage is 256TJ/d and under these conditions 39.7 per cent of the NSW market would be technically 'unserved'."

AGL's experts noted that this "cliff-edge" in contracted supply was not an event unique in NSW but warned that the resolution would not be as straightforward as it had been in the past.

"… the combination of rapid LNG load growth in Queensland and more recent (and unexpected) supply-side development constraints in NSW has created uncertainty as to how the situation … will be resolved this time around."

[​IMG]
Minister for Environment and Energy Josh Frydenberg continues to name AGL as the single parent of a market failure that has many more fathers.Alex Ellinghausen
"The problem that we identify is seasonal and spatial," the study warned, before noting that the peak winter load of gas demand was 80 per cent higher than the summer load. "The issue facing policymakers is that even under ideal operating conditions, there is insufficient gas production, pipeline and storage capacity during the height of winter to meet system-wide peak gas demand, particularly during working weekdays when diurnal patterns reach their maximum."

Given those warnings and the fact that by the time the December 2015 deal with Santos rolled around AGL was but two months from pulling the pin on its supply-side safety net in NSW, the Gloucester coal seam gas project, it is just hard to fathom where on earth the company imagined it was going to get its gas from.

A series of unfortunate events
That a series of unfortunate events ended up making the gas market even tighter than AGL's own experts had foreshadowed doesn't make the original misjudgment any less forgivable. It is hard to deflect accusations of price gouging in gas and electricity markets when the decisions made by past and present management appear only to have added to price enhancing supply-side tension that their own people were illuminating for them.


In the past, as on Monday, AGL has noted that the closure at short notice of Victoria's Hazelwood generators changed everything given the gap it created in electricity supply has been filled partially by gas-fired alternatives.

The reason this matters so much is that it changes the traditional seasonality of gas demand. We use electricity to run our air conditioners. Given more of that power comes now from gas-fired peaking power plants, we are using more gas in summer. AGL noted in Monday's Financial Reviewthat it has a winter-peak call on the gas it sells to exporters. But the switch in demand patterns leaves it now exposed to summer demand spikes.

In Monday's Financial Review the company also cited the sudden decline of Bass Strait production as a similarly unforeseeable event. Quite honestly it is hard to warrant how anyone in gas could claim ignorance of Bass Strait's declining productivity. Sure, the detail offered by the market regulator back in 2017 was confronting. But all AEMO did was put numbers to what was common knowledge.

But, either way, AGL's own people were warning that contracted supply to NSW was about to fall off a cliff and that they could not quite see how the hole might be filled. So why surrender a source of a future pool of liquidity, particularly given that it appeared to have been gathered in the first place as a means of firming AGL's capacity to service its own demands?


The net result is that for the short-term gain that comes of selling $3 a gigajoule gas for a good deal more to a desperate gas freezer AGL has left itself vulnerable to the same loss of social licence that saw NSW lock the gate on coal seam gas.

AGL vulnerable
As the Financial Review's Angela Macdonald-Smith reported on Wednesday, there is already talk that AGL's yet-committed LNG regasification plant should be declared an open access facility and Minister Frydenberg and his state counterparts continue to hold the gun of regulation at the heads of AGL and its competing gentailers.

For all that I have a good deal of sympathy for the difficult place that AGL finds itself in right now, it does no one any good to ignore history's complications and or to misallocate its misjudgments.


Having soiled its relationship with the federal government through a consistently botched engagement over plans to close the Liddell coal-fired power station and replace it with firming gas-fired capacity, AGL finds itself a tool of pre-election retail politics.

It is with some good reason that AGL worries that Minister Frydenberg continues to name AGL as the single parent of a market failure that has many more fathers.

In fact, the list of the guilty parties is long and AGL is one of the more incidental contributors to the mess we have.

Others to blame
The east coast market would be fully supplied if the governments that approved the machinery of gas exports that quadrupled the east coast gas market had then worked more actively and productively with the gas industry to garner some sort of community consensus that would have allowed the coal seam gas industry to migrate across the Queensland border into NSW.

But top billing in this whole sorry saga just has to go to the gas producers whose guileless egotism delivered Gladstone with three separate liquid natural gas projects, one of which did not have gas enough to fill the second of its two production trains.

Australia's best manager of progress in LNG is Oil Search's Peter Botten. He is as commercially savvy as he is politically adroit and has a wonderful ability to draw simplicity from complexity.

And the folk who used to run Santos would have done well to heed his advice on the foundation stone of a successful LNG project. If you don't have the gas to fill the machine, then don't build it. But Santos built its second train because that was the only way to make an investment case. But it still hasn't filled that train despite hoovering supplies from third-party suppliers that are expected to meet up to 40 per cent of the gas needs of the Santos joint venture over the next half a decade.

[Hectorplains]

Drifted back down to 9c. They need to get fracking before this goes anywhere ... sounds like that's a way off yet too. No contract in place - could be a couple of months yet.

[JBmurc]

From HC forum-today- 9c is a joke ....STO will come knocking if we see strong Gas flows ..

>>direct from RLE. That is (paraphrased), "we are currently securing a contractor to complete the frac. Once secured, fracing, clean-up and flow testing can commence. Note that flow testing should soon follow clean-up as we (RLE) are not expecting significant volumes of water. "

As was the case with securing a rig drilling T2 & T3 RLE contractor availability is determined by timing of other operations. From my conversation and the use of the word 'imminent' in presentations i'd assume we'll get an announcement saying 'contractor secured and frac to commence on xx date' in the next week or 2

Yes patience is needed >> think it will reward richly

[Hectorplains]

From HC forum-today- 9c is a joke ....STO will come knocking if we see strong Gas flows ..

>>direct from RLE. That is (paraphrased), "we are currently securing a contractor to complete the frac. Once secured, fracing, clean-up and flow testing can commence. Note that flow testing should soon follow clean-up as we (RLE) are not expecting significant volumes of water. "

As was the case with securing a rig drilling T2 & T3 RLE contractor availability is determined by timing of other operations. From my conversation and the use of the word 'imminent' in presentations i'd assume we'll get an announcement saying 'contractor secured and frac to commence on xx date' in the next week or 2

Yes patience is needed >> think it will reward richly

Well under way with this mornings announcement. Might have caught folk by surprise with how far they have got.

[Hectorplains]

Another good ann -

Ready to frac on Tamarama 2 & 3 wells this quarter
Modelling for initial flow rates show Tam 3 should exceed 3 MMscf/day

This could soon follow GLL and SXY sp trajectory.

[JBmurc]

Another good ann -

Ready to frac on Tamarama 2 & 3 wells this quarter
Modelling for initial flow rates show Tam 3 should exceed 3 MMscf/day

This could soon follow GLL and SXY sp trajectory.

i hope so my portfolio needs a kick

[BobbyMorocco]

What's your thoughts on RLE guys? This guy Scott Brown running the show a muppet or what? He seems to have a history of telling porkies and misleading people. Do you still think they've got gas there and are a chance of getting it flowing within the next few months? I'm unsure now as I don't feel I can trust management to be transparent and tell the truth.

[Hectorplains]

What's your thoughts on RLE guys? This guy Scott Brown running the show a muppet or what? He seems to have a history of telling porkies and misleading people. Do you still think they've got gas there and are a chance of getting it flowing within the next few months? I'm unsure now as I don't feel I can trust management to be transparent and tell the truth.

The CR was messy. That though doesn't mean there's not gas. Look at what Santo are doing close by. It will take longer than a couple of months though. I wouldn't worry too much about the howler monkeys on HC :eek2:

[JBmurc]

The Gas production + reserves will certainly do the talking ... So many micro-cap miners O&G have been getting smashed of late seems all the heat has just headed towards some of the E.V buzz ...

[JBmurc]

> it's going be a Brilliant October for RLE IMHO long time waiting but it's going be well worth it when the SP goes vertical on flow rates and in turn booking reserves.

Plan to buy more ...gutted I didn't have spare funds for recent 6.9c lows

mark my words coming into Xmas we will have Doz's more posters ramping $1 Targets which is fine by me esp as RLE has the potential

[BobbyMorocco]

> it's going be a Brilliant October for RLE IMHO long time waiting but it's going be well worth it when the SP goes vertical on flow rates and in turn booking reserves.

Plan to buy more ...gutted I didn't have spare funds for recent 6.9c lows

mark my words coming into Xmas we will have Doz's more posters ramping $1 Targets which is fine by me esp as RLE has the potential

You're more confident than I am but I'm still holding. My trouble is going to be continuing to hold for the ride if they do get initial flow rates above 3mmcf/d on both T2 and T3. That cap raise has made feel quite uneasy.

[JBmurc]

You're more confident than I am but I'm still holding. My trouble is going to be continuing to hold for the ride if they do get initial flow rates above 3mmcf/d on both T2 and T3. That cap raise has made feel quite uneasy.

Yes but just look at the share structure Mgmt hold a huge chunk of shares its in there best interest to get the SP higher ...

the Cap raising was a mare I agree not happy myself esp. on the amount of free opts the instos get compared to us retail S/Hs .. still the upside when you compare to the likes of peers STX-GLL with 140m-149mill market cap values compared to our 23mill !!!

RLE actually has a better chance of near-term Cashflows as are well are only 13-14kms to STO pipeline and which we have an MOU agreement with STO and Buyers all ready to go ...

It's looking like its all going come together very nicely ... then watch the same insto's that got shares cheap to drive the SP well north along with retailers fighting to get onboard ..30c should well be crossed before the years out then its all going depend if STO want to take us out (likely) and how many more wells we can drill and reserves we can book ...

[JBmurc]

Third, we will back investment in baseload generation to retain supply and encourage competition. We will force divestments if necessary. Opening up our abundant natural resources – gas, coal, water and the sun – will ensure Australians receive the cheapest and most reliable electricity.
Angus Taylor is the federal Minister for Energy AUS

https://www.angustaylor.com.au/media/media-releases/opinion-cut-energy-virtue-signalling-and-start-serving-customers






https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/energy-shock-rising-oil-prices-us-dollar-put-pressure-on-20181003-p507hn.html

[Joshuatree]

Have everything crossed that flow is great , still holding original parcel, not adding;high risk high reward punt money. imo.

[JBmurc]

Have everything crossed that flow is great , still holding original parcel, not adding;high risk high reward punt money. imo.

Talk around upwards 50% increase in east coast gas spot prices during 2019 ...now if that's true image the already bullish sentiment

.. In emails with RLE MD Scott Brown, he believes RLE holds better acreage than the likes of GLL-STX that command 500% higher market caps ...

Now, of course, he's going be bias as one of the biggest S/H's and MD of the company ..but he does make sense IF the lastest drills prove commercial gas-flows(the others still pumping water!!!)

Some reading -https://www.nextoilrush.com/company/rle/

I higher recommend to go and view the last General meeting presentation .. good page showing the difference between the peer east gas plays GLL - STX - BUL - RLE .... the latter two where I will continue to invest more funds

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing JB.

[JBmurc]

No stress my OCT goal is to have 60-70% of my O&G funds in BUL with 30% in RLEOA's or the OB options .. I think that would be a good risk -reward ... as I don't see BUL hanging around sub 10c for long and if RLE mgmt are correct and we see 3mmcf+ flow rates each from T2-T3 then 400-500% gains just in the head shares which should see opts 800%+

[JBmurc]

https://www.afr.com/news/special-reports/afr-focus-energy/no-easy-solution-for-gas-crisis-set-to-grip-east-coast-for-next-20-years-20181004-h168bs

[JBmurc]

For those that haven't read the recent ann>>

https://smallcaps.com.au/real-energy-flows-gas-from-windorah-wells/

[Joshuatree]

Cheers JB, heres a 41c valn (current price 9.7c). Holding not buying, and hoping flows on cleanup are good plus.Fingers crossed on this risky gas explorer to producer play.

http://www.realenergy.com.au/images/2018/v5/Real_Energy_Limited-26_October_Report_2018.pdf (http://www.realenergy.com.au/images/2018/v5/Real_Energy_Limited-26_October_Report_2018.pdf)

[Joshuatree]

Btw i forgot about the bonus 1 for 5 options which are coming in to play nicely, xtra cream:)

[JBmurc]

Yes I’m loving the talk from mgmt and the videos of the gas flares .. I understand the 41c target is conservative esp if we get higher flows than expected... holding 633k of the OAs 30c would be brilliant Xmas present

[bermuda]

Yes I’m loving the talk from mgmt and the videos of the gas flares .. I understand the 41c target is conservative esp if we get higher flows than expected... holding 633k of the OAs 30c would be brilliant Xmas present

I had some but when they went for that BS CR I folded. But I think this could be a real winner ( excuse ) . This guy Scott has been talking this up very seriously. And initial results are tracking well..

I will re-enter when gas flows are commercially sustainable. There will be a surge then a pull back. Buy during the pull back.

[JBmurc]

Very good surely we will get flow results next week .. worth looking over the recent analyst report to see the upside ... for those interested

http://www.realenergy.com.au/images/2018/v5/Real_Energy_Limited-26_October_Report_2018.pdf

[Joshuatree]

2 to 4 weeks by the looks. Still clearing off frac fluid.

Tamarama 2 & 3 Operation Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4540521/)
Windorah Gas Project (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4540421/)

[JBmurc]

2 to 4 weeks by the looks. Still clearing off frac fluid.

Tamarama 2 & 3 Operation Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4540521/)
Windorah Gas Project (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4540421/)

Yes I like the sound of better flows than Tam-1

"Current Program

▪Real Energy completed the well stimulation of Tamarama 2 & Tamarama 3 in October 2018

▪Aim of current works program is to convert some of the large contingent resources to reserves

▪Tamarama 2 & Tamarama 3 flowbacks – continuous and fairly stable gas flowing to surface with frac fluid

▪Frac fluids are now starting to drop but still more to recover

▪Pressure and flow tests to be conducted once majority of frac fluids are recovered from both wells"

continued positive advancements.

RLE = STRONG BUY imho

[JBmurc]

Post from another forum from a guy that had contacted RLE mgmt on delays>>>>etc

I contacted RLE. The line that got me suss was "Real Energy will continue to evolve its extraction techniques". To me, that was code for 'the wells aren't performing as expected and cap raise. I put this to RLE and the answer was a definite "we meant what we meant". So there's nothing up with the current wells, they were just confirming that this play will evolve and they should be able to improve results over time.



Why the change of due date for flow rate results? Onsite RLE reps advised the board of the progress in recovering frac fluids from T2 & T3. T2 is all but recovered (~90%) whereas T2 is >50% so far. The shut in, pressure build and flow test will take ~2 weeks to complete. There was a risk this 2 week timeframe would put RLE too close to Xmas. So RLE made the call to delay the testing until the new year. Fair enough i say, i would rather be with my family on Xmas day than on a rig in Windorah.



I expect both wells will be shut in before Xmas.



Why 2 weeks for flow testing? 2 weeks will provide enough data for consultants to predict well decline and estimate reserves! RLE expect a 'long' well life based on productivity data from nearby Santos wells. Flow rates are important but each well needs enough ultimate recovery for payback. RLE seemed very confident of this.



What does "both wells are performing better than T1" mean? T1 has 'slugs' of formation water that inhibit continuous flow. T2 & T3 whilst recovering frac fluids are performing with far greater consistency. 'Slugs' of frac fluid (only) appear but are nothing like T1. The flow rates from T1 when not affected by water are solid, so i expect that T2 & T3 without these issues should flow consistently and at a higher rate.



Interestingly, RLE mentioned that re-conditioning T1 was a future option to improve the well. That to me further shows that the gas is good and its a well completion issue that has hindered T1.



Testing of liquid recovered from T2 & T3 has been completed and did not indicate the presence of water issues like T1. RLE did indicate they would continue to conduct testing to confirm the results thus far. This is very good news.



Hopefully we get a few more flare videos and 'business as usual' updates before Xmas. I assume there will be an ann confirming shut in of the wells?



Reserves are expected Q1

HIgh Risk High return ....has been hit from sell-off

[Joshuatree]

Thanks so much for sharing that JB, the more i know the less i want to know:confused::). Its trash or treasure for my punt stock.Sitting on my hands here, not adding or selling.May the flow be with us!

[JBmurc]

Well I pretty much only hold BOOM or DOOM shares these days EAR IRC WWI RLE BUL all been crushed of late but with the right ann. and movement in GOLD or east coast gas I might just retire my day job earlier than expected.... esp as I.ve been buying more of late >>

[Hectorplains]

Well I pretty much only hold BOOM or DOOM shares these days EAR IRC WWI RLE BUL all been crushed of late but with the right ann. and movement in GOLD or east coast gas I might just retire my day job earlier than expected.... esp as I.ve been buying more of late >>

Good reminder of the impending shortage: https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/LNG-shortage-increasingly-likely

Both Tama 2 & 3 are shut in to pressure build-up ahead of flow testing scheduled for mid January.

[JBmurc]

Good reminder of the impending shortage: https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/LNG-shortage-increasingly-likely

Both Tama 2 & 3 are shut in to pressure build-up ahead of flow testing scheduled for mid January.

Holding good chunk of OA's so really would like to see some good flow rates ... will pop if we do..

[wizAlvin]

ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours

[JBmurc]

I see RLE was well backed in the ASX Comp I hope we are rewarded for that... surely only days to go till we get an update on flow rates

With 645000 OAs its either going be a brilliant or bloody horrible start to the trading year.. the OA are a pure gamble on T1-T2-T3 pilot wells if Good we will see the 3C Gas move towards 2P Gas reserves and the whole permit be seen as a commercial success this will help fund the major rollout of Stage-2 and forward production targets driving RLE past 100mill marketcap

the leverage is HUGE

[JBmurc]

Just wondering how many ST poster on here actually hold RLE shares or opts ?? I see it was picked 20x!!! the favourite company for 2019 comp ?

disc-JBMurc 9th biggest holder of RLEOA

Next week going either be briliant or a very pissed JBmurc

[Joshuatree]

Im still in. You trading pre the announcement?

[gmatt]

I ‘m in .... and smiling!!

[Hectorplains]

Yup - still in.

[JBmurc]

Great Guys heres hoping we are all toasting to some high flow rates personal I think we will see 4mmcf+

great post from tully on HC>>>>

So I finally got through to RLE yesterday. Good new is people are on site, and I expect initial flow rates from T2 next week. After that RLE will move to T3.



RLE are very confident T2 has recovered enough frac fluid to test T2 and results are expected next week. RLE are also confident T3 has recovered enogh fluid but wary more fluid may need to be recovered before testing. This is due to more frac fluid being injected at T3. RLE will assess this when they move to T3.



T2 will be tested for ~2-3 weeks to get sufficient data for reserve estimates. RLE don't expect to post flow rates in an ongoing manner. If the initial flows are good and reserves are certified then they don't feel its necessary. That is until they start producing! :).



I asked SB about the sale of the options. They were indeed an off market sale. I didn't ask to whom because I felt that's not my business. My gut suggests its to an associate. SB indicated the options are somewhat of a 'burden' as its difficult for a MD to trade and also he'd have to stump up a hefty cheque. He felt it was much simpler for him to hold heads and the B options which are a long way off. I asked if the sale was an indication of shifting timelines but he said that wasn't a consideration at all. In any case he's got way more leverage than any of us and stands to gain the most from success at T2 & T3. I sensed a nervous excitement from the RLE camp.



RLE are not necessarily banking on a big cheque from conversion of the A options although that is the plan. Given RLE share price is 8c its not something they are banking on. On success there will be a wealth of funding options even if the options have expires, all of which are on the table.



I asked about the flare photos. The flares were continuous and those photos were from 'steady state' flares.



Assuming good flows, 2P Reserves will take ~ 2 months

[t.rexjr]

I bought a bunch of OBs and have a few OAs from the 1:10 issue or what ever it was. Sold heads last time we were at 10c and very nearly bought them back had my order gotten filled at 7.5. Holding and waiting...

[younga]

Can I ask what the exercise price is for the ob's?

[Hectorplains]

Can I ask what the exercise price is for the ob's?


14cps - Expiring 30-Sep-2020.

Details here: http://www.realenergy.com.au/images/2018/v2/2018-08-31_Bonus__Placement_Option_Issue_Prospectus.pdf

[t.rexjr]

Can I ask what the exercise price is for the ob's?

14c Expiring 30-Sep-2020

A slightly 'safer' option should thing not go to plan I thought.

[Hectorplains]

14c Expiring 30-Sep-2020

A slightly 'safer' option should thing not go to plan I thought.

Scott Brown (CEO) sold his OA's on 12 Dec (@.018) and bought more head shares...

[t.rexjr]

Scott Brown (CEO) sold his OA's on 12 Dec (@.018) and bought more head shares...

Yeah I put that down to ability to raise cash for conversion given his window of trading and quantity he holds. That was somewhat confirmed by Tully's post. The heads are very cheap if all goes to plan...

[Joshuatree]

Many thanks for doing the work and sharing freely JB.

[Paddie]

I hold OA's as well as heads. Looking forward to some positive announcements starting from next week.

[JBmurc]

Yeah I put that down to ability to raise cash for conversion given his window of trading and quantity he holds. That was somewhat confirmed by Tully's post. The heads are very cheap if all goes to plan...

Yes Scott is still the biggest holder of the OA's and head shares ..you don't get much more skin in the game than that for a MD..

[Hectorplains]

Tamarama 2 Reports Initial Flow Rate of 2 mmcf/day (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02067791). Commercial but not great.

[JBmurc]

Commenting on the successful flow test, Real Energy’s Managing Director Scott Brown said: “This is a good
result for Tamarama 2, which we believe will be a future gas producer. Importantly we are a step closer to
commercialising a very large gas field and supports the drilling of future development wells. ”
“We are now on track to convert our large Contingent Resources of 2C & 3C into reserves and then start to
deliver sustainable production from what is potentially a very large gas project in the heart of a proven
Australian energy province, the Cooper Basin.
“The current gas crisis on the East Coast of Australia, where last week the Sydney gas price hit AUD$12 per
Gj, is something we predicted when we founded Real Energy. We positioned the Company to take
advantage of today’s gas situation, something that is hurting Australian industry. We have 100% ownership
of a field with an estimated 13.7 Tcf total mean gas in place, and our goal will be to convert a large amount
of this into gas reserves. Whilst we are on the verge of commercialising a very large gas field we are still at
the very early stages of unlocking the project’s true value which we anticipate is significant.”

[JBmurc]

BCGA plays are among the more economically important unconventional gas systems in the world. They are made made up of pervasive, basin-wide gas accumulations trapped in low permeability rock. In the US alone, basin-centered gas accumulations provide 15% of the country's annual production, equal to 4 tcf/year.

Is interesting looking at some of our peers of course in the CSG space like GAS.asx 128mill market cap !!
close to pipeline like us. in QLD

Ended up getting some RLE -8.9c-9c today to go with my OA's

[Hectorplains]

BCGA plays are among the more economically important unconventional gas systems in the world. They are made made up of pervasive, basin-wide gas accumulations trapped in low permeability rock. In the US alone, basin-centered gas accumulations provide 15% of the country's annual production, equal to 4 tcf/year.

Is interesting looking at some of our peers of course in the CSG space like GAS.asx 128mill market cap !!
close to pipeline like us. in QLD

Ended up getting some RLE -8.9c-9c today to go with my OA's


The problem for RLE is that their models predicted flow rates of >3 mmcfd (as was released in the much trumpeted broker's report.) Having stuffed up Tam 1 and now overestimated Tam 2... what confidence of higher flows from Tam 3? Heads ended slightly in the red today, the markets not sharing Scott's 'good result' sentiment. My conviction around this is waning. OA's are looking shaky. What chance another CR looming...

[JBmurc]

I spoke with the Scott today briefly in his words the technical operations of the TAM-2-3 have been left up to the operators Halliburton
he, of course, like everyone else wanted a high as possible flow-rates but believed the 2mmcf/d was the baseline target from the start to give confindence of a commercially certified 3P Gas reserve of 300-400bcf Is the Target in the short term ,, not pushing the frac formation and risking damage that could hurt life etc.
Also with water issues at TAM-1 didn't want to put more pressure on the upper water bearing coal seams..

the choke is small only 5mm ..nearby STO Whanto-1 flowed 4mmcf/d through a 13mm choke

RLE twitter feed definitely worth a listen: https://soundcloud.com/user-246928730/episode-24-real-energy-managing-director-scott-brown

At today Gas prices TAM-2 if flowrates stay steady would be around $25,000 in revenue ... TAM-3 should at least double that $50k a day not sure how much TAM-1 will add but surely another 10k per day so 60k will certainly help keep the lights on..

Mt Howitt pipline only 14kms away will cost about 5mill to connect... the OA's would cover the cost but Scott did state that he has had offers of debt funding on the back of Gas reserves cert. so I think they really don't want to push the choke size in the short term well until field reserves are booked they learnt the lesson at TAM-1 over fracturing cause the water issues to hamper gas flows.. so think its a slow and steady approach

IMHO RLE is dirt cheap when you compare to peers just look at GAS.asx or STX.asx both some time away from production of have Gas reserves anywhere near RLE or agreements to connect into pipelines close by(that I know of) and being CSG they will have yearly costs to keep the gas flowing over shorter timeframes .. as we know with BCGA is generally long life constant flow-rates of dry Gas... RLE is trying to prove a major BCG play surrounded by the biggest OIL&Gas players in the region ..

Scott does believe its only a matter of time till we are approached by the likes of ORG-STO-BPT but they won't move till RLE has done most of the work and have reserves and tied into piplines then really its just chump change to offer 70-100mill etc

[JBmurc]

Hey Bermuda be interested to know your views on RLE chances of becoming the next east coast gas producer ... have spoken with the MD and have invested a good amount of funds here ...

[bermuda]

JB,
I like RLE a lot but SB has been going on about this now for quite a while. The CR was a disgrace so I got out and promised myself I would not re-enter until they had proven gas flows.

T2 was anticipated at 3 mmscft but initial result at 2 was a bit of a disappointment. Watching closely. The recent talk of the pipeline to Santos is encouraging. Good luck. It will fly once it has cleared a few more hurdles.

[JBmurc]

JB,
I like RLE a lot but SB has been going on about this now for quite a while. The CR was a disgrace so I got out and promised myself I would not re-enter until they had proven gas flows.

T2 was anticipated at 3 mmscft but initial result at 2 was a bit of a disappointment. Watching closely. The recent talk of the pipeline to Santos is encouraging. Good luck. It will fly once it has cleared a few more hurdles.

Yeah I sold out on the last day of the free opts ex.date ,,,, but after some time of researching other Gas plays in the area I ended up adding a top10 position in the opts and now have 400k of the heads .. all goes to plan I'll be a very happy holder

Dr Ray Johnson Interview
http://www.realenergy.com.au/RealEnergyEdit4

[t.rexjr]

initial 2.5mmcf from T3 and the application lodged for pipeline licence. Sounds like the design and local landowner agreements we're already all in place. Great stuff!

[JBmurc]

initial 2.5mmcf from T3 and the application lodged for pipeline licence. Sounds like the design and local landowner agreements we're already all in place. Great stuff!

Very good just seen the headline and SP Happy Holder here

[JBmurc]

Commentary
Commenting on the successful initial flow test of Tamarama 3, Real Energy’s Managing Director, Scott
Brown, said:
“This is an excellent result for Tamarama 3 and we believe this well will be a future gas producer. With this
result, we have well and truly proven up the Basin Centred Gas model and the results of these two wells
bode well for future wells. We have large gas field and together with high East Coast gas prices we have the
potential to generate significant revenues.“
“Based on these flow rates, we have acted quickly in lodging the pipeline application which if approved,
means we can tie into an existing gas gathering and processing system only 14 kilometres away. The pieces
are now rapidly falling into place.”
“Real Energy is on track to convert a large Contingent Resources of 2C & 3C into reserves and then start to
deliver sustainable production from what is potentially a very large gas project in the heart of a proven
Australian energy province, the Cooper Basin.

[JBmurc]

Nat Gas demand to grow 45% by 2040---

https://smallcaps.com.au/gas-demand-grow-world-moves-away-from-coal/

[t.rexjr]

Nat Gas demand to grow 45% by 2040---

https://smallcaps.com.au/gas-demand-grow-world-moves-away-from-coal/

Gas so clean, coal so duurty...

Or is it?

Depends who's spinning it...


Unit 2 at J-POWER’s Isogo Thermal Power Station, a 600-MW ultrasupercritical unit in Yokohama, Japan, ranks as the cleanest coal-fired power plant in the world in terms of emission intensity, with levels comparable to those from a natural gas–fired combined cycle plant. According to the International Energy Agency’s Clean Coal Centre, the unit’s average emissions are in the single digits for NOx and SO2, and less than five milligrams per cubic meter for particulate matter.

Perhaps neither are but one looks dirty and the other doesn't.

interesting debate resulted from this article https://www.interest.co.nz/business/97731/make-nzs-future-energy-supply-called-question-unprecedented-gas-and-hydro-shortages


Probably should've posted all this on a more relevant thread, sorry...

[t.rexjr]

Will be interesting to see how trading goes today. Quarterly shows cash not to be an issue at this stage and farm in proposals coming in. I get the sense punters are starting to see where this is going. Cautiously bought a few heads yesterday and expected to see them in the red but surprisingly finished green. Pipeline could be in and RLE producing by end of calendar year. Wouln't that be a treat!

[JBmurc]

Yes sure will be >>

from Q report
The Company has received a funding proposal to farm into its permits. At this stage the Company is in
discussion on whether an acceptable arrangement can be made. There is no guarantee such an
acceptable agreement can be reached.

The Company is also started to engage with potential gas customers on purchasing the gas from the
Company’s project. There is strong interest given the high east coast gas prices in Australia. The
Company will advise on any progress with Gas Sales.

[JBmurc]

Slugcatcher on the profit-making potential of Oz's east coast gas shortage

THERE are two ways of looking at the Australian east coast gas market, it is either a train wreck happening in slow motion or, as Slugcatcher prefers to see the situation, a marvelous investment opportunity. Slugcatcher on the profit-making potential of Oz's east coast gas shortageThose with east coast exposure stand to profitInsight > Slugcatcher 11 February 2019 CommentsShareSlugcatcherThe train wreck comparison is one preferred by some politicians and oil industry executives annoyed at the way left-leaning governments and anti-development environmentalists have captured the public debate over energy in its many forms. Bans on exploration, bans on fracking technologies and bans on the development of known gasfields have severely crimped the supply of gas and ensured the development of a future shortage. There is, of course, nothing new in any of that, it's just that the process has been so slow moving that some people, especially investors, appear unaware that the future is arriving and a crop of oil and gas stocks with exposure to east coast gas are poised to cash in. An awakening is occurring as the analysis of the situation expands to be less focussed on the damage caused to industry and consumers from the gas shortage to ways in which profits can be earned from inappropriate government policies. Assembling a portfolio of east-coast gas exposed stocks with reserves in the ground could turn out to be the best investment of the next five-to-ten years, especially if a forecast deficit develops in globally-traded LNG. But, before getting to the good news there is an important proviso because anything involving government can be subject to change overnight and with a Federal election due in the next few months the gas market could be in for a dramatic change, especially if shortages and high prices threaten jobs. Having said that it does seem there is a group of oil and gas companies on the cusp of significant share-price re-rating as east coast gas prices rise to match the price of internationally-traded LNG - and possibly exceed it. A glimpse of the LNG-linked future came late last year when some gas consumers were forced to pay 25% more than the equivalent export, or netback, price - a price based on the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) LNG price, less the cost of liquefaction and transport from the Wallumbilla hub in Queensland. A combination of cooler weather in November and a decline in Bass Strait supply saw the local gas price rise to $10 a gigajoule, an around 25% more than the netback price at the time. That situation has corrected but it was a warning shot of what might be ahead for east coast gas customers who once enjoyed much cheaper energy with exposure to the international price a threat to their business model. Over the next few months it is likely that a grim game will be played out as businesses which cannot survive in a high cost environment are pushed to the point of extinction. One of the obvious contenders for closure is the Alcoa-run aluminium smelter at Portland in Victoria which has been kept alive courtesy of a special electricity-supply contract which expires in about two years. In fact, the fate of Portland is probably a hot topic at Alcoa right now because closing a big mineral processing and metal-making facility takes a long time because of the need to manage the workforce and the need to source aluminium from other assets in the Alcoa group. Closures and hardship from gas prices rising to the international threshold which could see Australian east coast customers pay the same as a gas consumer in Japan or Korea is one side of the situation, identifying the winners on the other side of the equation is what interests The Slug. The most obvious winners from the prospect of much higher gas prices in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia's two biggest cities, are companies with proven gas reserves and access to the gas market. Seven companies listed on the Australian stock exchange are seen by Bell Potter, a stockbroking firm, complying with the winning formula - Santos, Beach, Senex, Cooper, Comet Ridge, Central Petroleum and Blue Energy. "These companies have production delivering into domestic gas markets and/or the LNG facilities in Gladstone, or have projects which have this potential," Bell Potter said. Interestingly, the broker produced its report into east coast gas suppliers despite only researching one of them, Blue Energy, which is rated a speculative buy, leaving open the potential to broaden its analysis as the business opportunity grows - which it will. The reason a lot more interest can be expected from the financial community in the east coast gas market is that the global LNG market is likely to tighten, and that's the key to the next upward move in local gas prices. "LNG producers generally expect a supply deficit from the early 2020s," Bell Potter said. "Strong growth in global LNG demand is typically met by more staggered growth in supply given the significant barriers to bring large-scale LNG production online. "This LNG supply deficit, together with longer-term risks to Australian domestic supply, should see sustained higher gas prices on the east coast." Two final points. Not only is it hard to fault the evidence pointing to an east coast gas crisis, but it is equally hard to fault the potential for fat profits from a portfolio of gas producers exposed to a market poised for a price explosion.

[Hectorplains]

Slugcatcher on the profit-making potential of Oz's east coast gas shortage

THERE are two ways of looking at the Australian east coast gas market, it is either a train wreck happening in slow motion or, as Slugcatcher prefers to see the situation, a marvelous investment opportunity. Slugcatcher on the profit-making potential of Oz's east coast gas shortageThose with east coast exposure stand to profitInsight > Slugcatcher 11 February 2019 CommentsShareSlugcatcherThe train wreck comparison is one preferred by some politicians and oil industry executives annoyed at the way left-leaning governments and anti-development environmentalists have captured the public debate over energy in its many forms. Bans on exploration, bans on fracking technologies and bans on the development of known gasfields have severely crimped the supply of gas and ensured the development of a future shortage. There is, of course, nothing new in any of that, it's just that the process has been so slow moving that some people, especially investors, appear unaware that the future is arriving and a crop of oil and gas stocks with exposure to east coast gas are poised to cash in. An awakening is occurring as the analysis of the situation expands to be less focussed on the damage caused to industry and consumers from the gas shortage to ways in which profits can be earned from inappropriate government policies. Assembling a portfolio of east-coast gas exposed stocks with reserves in the ground could turn out to be the best investment of the next five-to-ten years, especially if a forecast deficit develops in globally-traded LNG. But, before getting to the good news there is an important proviso because anything involving government can be subject to change overnight and with a Federal election due in the next few months the gas market could be in for a dramatic change, especially if shortages and high prices threaten jobs. Having said that it does seem there is a group of oil and gas companies on the cusp of significant share-price re-rating as east coast gas prices rise to match the price of internationally-traded LNG - and possibly exceed it. A glimpse of the LNG-linked future came late last year when some gas consumers were forced to pay 25% more than the equivalent export, or netback, price - a price based on the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) LNG price, less the cost of liquefaction and transport from the Wallumbilla hub in Queensland. A combination of cooler weather in November and a decline in Bass Strait supply saw the local gas price rise to $10 a gigajoule, an around 25% more than the netback price at the time. That situation has corrected but it was a warning shot of what might be ahead for east coast gas customers who once enjoyed much cheaper energy with exposure to the international price a threat to their business model. Over the next few months it is likely that a grim game will be played out as businesses which cannot survive in a high cost environment are pushed to the point of extinction. One of the obvious contenders for closure is the Alcoa-run aluminium smelter at Portland in Victoria which has been kept alive courtesy of a special electricity-supply contract which expires in about two years. In fact, the fate of Portland is probably a hot topic at Alcoa right now because closing a big mineral processing and metal-making facility takes a long time because of the need to manage the workforce and the need to source aluminium from other assets in the Alcoa group. Closures and hardship from gas prices rising to the international threshold which could see Australian east coast customers pay the same as a gas consumer in Japan or Korea is one side of the situation, identifying the winners on the other side of the equation is what interests The Slug. The most obvious winners from the prospect of much higher gas prices in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia's two biggest cities, are companies with proven gas reserves and access to the gas market. Seven companies listed on the Australian stock exchange are seen by Bell Potter, a stockbroking firm, complying with the winning formula - Santos, Beach, Senex, Cooper, Comet Ridge, Central Petroleum and Blue Energy. "These companies have production delivering into domestic gas markets and/or the LNG facilities in Gladstone, or have projects which have this potential," Bell Potter said. Interestingly, the broker produced its report into east coast gas suppliers despite only researching one of them, Blue Energy, which is rated a speculative buy, leaving open the potential to broaden its analysis as the business opportunity grows - which it will. The reason a lot more interest can be expected from the financial community in the east coast gas market is that the global LNG market is likely to tighten, and that's the key to the next upward move in local gas prices. "LNG producers generally expect a supply deficit from the early 2020s," Bell Potter said. "Strong growth in global LNG demand is typically met by more staggered growth in supply given the significant barriers to bring large-scale LNG production online. "This LNG supply deficit, together with longer-term risks to Australian domestic supply, should see sustained higher gas prices on the east coast." Two final points. Not only is it hard to fault the evidence pointing to an east coast gas crisis, but it is equally hard to fault the potential for fat profits from a portfolio of gas producers exposed to a market poised for a price explosion.

Nothing new here... the East Coast gas shortage is well documented. It's seemed like a sure fire play for a while (and much sooner than the 5 -10 year window in the article too) but the reality is that gas stocks stubbornly still aren't reflecting the situation. RLE dipped below 10c today. The odds on the OA's getting in the money at this point are lengthening. At least gas production is on the horizon for RLE; unlike BUL and their endless hold and wait for a suitor. The question is if holding RLE on the notion of the great leap as the market catches up, is worth the opportunity cost. It was not in 2017 or 18...

[Paddie]

Nothing new here... the East Coast gas shortage is well documented. It's seemed like a sure fire play for a while (and much sooner than the 5 -10 year window in the article too) but the reality is that gas stocks stubbornly still aren't reflecting the situation. RLE dipped below 10c today. The odds on the OA's getting in the money at this point are lengthening. At least gas production is on the horizon for RLE; unlike BUL and their endless hold and wait for a suitor. The question is if holding RLE on the notion of the great leap as the market catches up, is worth the opportunity cost. It was not in 2017 or 18...

BUL is miles away from infrastucture where as RLE is 14 kms away. BUL has the reserves but no GSA or pipeline deal and it may take years for their reserves to be monetised. RLE is close to proving up reserves, it is a no brainer to me.

[JBmurc]

Nothing new here... the East Coast gas shortage is well documented. It's seemed like a sure fire play for a while (and much sooner than the 5 -10 year window in the article too) but the reality is that gas stocks stubbornly still aren't reflecting the situation. RLE dipped below 10c today. The odds on the OA's getting in the money at this point are lengthening. At least gas production is on the horizon for RLE; unlike BUL and their endless hold and wait for a suitor. The question is if holding RLE on the notion of the great leap as the market catches up, is worth the opportunity cost. It was not in 2017 or 18...

patience will be well rewarded IMHO..............spec end of the market is very risk adverse these days we will only see SP re-rate on concrete developments which surely will happen pre OA ex-date 9 weeks away

[Paddie]

From todays announcement, all looks to be on track.


“Our Windorah Gas Project is very much on track with a number of commercial developments progressing concurrently. Interest from industry for gas sales is growing, and we are seeing significant interest from a number of groups keep to provide funding to build our pipeline and connect into a sales channel at Santos’ Mount Howitt gas gathering facility”.

“We are well on track to convert our large Contingent Resources of 2C & 3C into reserves and then commence the delivery of sustainable production from what is potentially a very large gas project in the heart of a proven Australian energy province, the Cooper Basin.”

[Hectorplains]

From todays announcement, all looks to be on track.


“Our Windorah Gas Project is very much on track with a number of commercial developments progressing concurrently. Interest from industry for gas sales is growing, and we are seeing significant interest from a number of groups keep to provide funding to build our pipeline and connect into a sales channel at Santos’ Mount Howitt gas gathering facility”.

“We are well on track to convert our large Contingent Resources of 2C & 3C into reserves and then commence the delivery of sustainable production from what is potentially a very large gas project in the heart of a proven Australian energy province, the Cooper Basin.”

Yup, nothing new in this announcement...

[JBmurc]

From todays announcement, all looks to be on track.


“Our Windorah Gas Project is very much on track with a number of commercial developments progressing concurrently. Interest from industry for gas sales is growing, and we are seeing significant interest from a number of groups keep to provide funding to build our pipeline and connect into a sales channel at Santos’ Mount Howitt gas gathering facility”.

“We are well on track to convert our large Contingent Resources of 2C & 3C into reserves and then commence the delivery of sustainable production from what is potentially a very large gas project in the heart of a proven Australian energy province, the Cooper Basin.”

Now we just need some solid contracts and the SP will jump .. which would be good for my large OA holding (need 15c to breakeven)

I messaged SB through Linkedin asked about any chance we could see the RLEOA ex date extend to cover the later date we now look to have to book reserves.. as we had delays over Xmas etc ... he reply "Maybe- we are looking into it"

[Paddie]

It would make a lot of sense if they could extend the RLEOA's and it is in their best interests to get them over the line.

[JBmurc]

It would make a lot of sense if they could extend the RLEOA's and it is in their best interests to get them over the line.

yes just think of the price OA go if we get another month extension ?? 1.4c is cheap when we could well close at the 12c ex price this week.and see a surge well over 20c come reserves + GSA + Pipline anns.

[silu]

Wanted to buy a small stake yesterday but funds didn't clear until when it hit 11.5c. Dayum.

[Joshuatree]

I ve reached the Clash song profit wise"Shall i stay or shall i go now...."

[JBmurc]

I ve reached the Clash song profit wise"Shall i stay or shall i go now...."

depends do you want to take the smaller profits now or wait a couple months for much larger ones 20c+

[bermuda]

depends do you want to take the smaller profits now or wait a couple months for much larger ones 20c+

Jb and others,
This is looking REAL good.
Well done to holders.

[stoploss]

depends do you want to take the smaller profits now or wait a couple months for much larger ones 20c+

Hi JB , Thanks for all your work on this . Got lucky as I purchased some @ 10 yesterday. Nice surprise today .
Cheers S/L

[JBmurc]

Hi JB , Thanks for all your work on this . Got lucky as I purchased some @ 10 yesterday. Nice surprise today .
Cheers S/L

Yeah much more to come IMHO

I really think I'm being light on price targets with some of the numbers I've been reading around lately and certainly, we are seeing Buyers wanting in and chasing sellers currently

which makes me think its actual guys in the know ? aka those working for the same interested Gas Buyers ...Insto/brokers(Finance) that RLE have been dealing with of late

[NZSilver]

Can someone explain the gas flows and how good they were? What's the chance of these wells bit being commercial ?

[JBmurc]

Can someone explain the gas flows and how good they were? What's the chance of these wells bit being commercial?

Since RLE IPO they have drilled 4x wells and all 4x have hit Gas on the BCG prospects sub+ 1mmcfd - 1-2mmcfpd -2mmcfpd -2.5mmcfpd

MD made the comment the 2.5mmcfpd would be sell for around $24,000per day at spot prices etc

As long as the Gas keeps flowing which from all cases to date from RLE wells and those that BPT,STO,ORG show continue high flow rates showing commercial fields ...RLE has a pospective 11.7TCF just from the one structure are in the 927 permit

I can't wait till they explore next door to mount Howitt in the southern part of the large 927 permit

[BobbyMorocco]

Yeah the three wells they're looking to tie in together, Tam 1, 2 & 3 look like they'll produce around 5mmcfpd. This will be good for approx $20m revenue each year. Current market cap is $40m.

The managing director Scott Brown said that if initial flow rates were 2mmcfpd or higher on Tam 2 & 3 that these wells would be commercial and they would tie in Tam 1 with it which is producing up to 2mmcfpd. As JB said Tam 2 flowed at 2mmcfpd and Tam 3 at 2.5mmcfpd so things are on track to become commercial soon!

There's plenty of gas in the ground where these guys are and they have plans for loads more wells after these ones. It's been a bit of bumpy ride holding these but I'm glad that I have. Sentiment is finally starting to change as these guys start to build on what is potentially a sizeable asset. Risk vs reward looks pretty good in these very early stages IMO.

Hopefully the share price will keep heading north and you can get that truckload of those OA's you own across the line JB. Well done and GLTA!

[Joshuatree]

So a cashed up partner to drill heaps, a buy in or a takeover could be on the cards soon.

[JBmurc]

So a cashed up partner to drill heaps, a buy in or a takeover could be on the cards soon.

Yes I wouldn't be surprised if we farm down the project for a multi-million $$ investment to drive the project forward to 100mill+ EBIT pa

we are surrounded by the STO/BPT/ORG JV ... yet here little RLE is with 100% of a soon to be proved up Commercial project that later this year should be connected to a sales pipline

[Joshuatree]

T/H for potential cap raise, hope its a buy in at a premium or close to s/p.

[t.rexjr]

T/H for potential cap raise, hope its a buy in at a premium or close to s/p.

That'll upset the punters

[Joshuatree]

If its a plain vanilla cap raise it will. Will await detail.

[silu]

Just read not sure if official though:
Cap raising is at 10.5c with free options 1:3, the options have a 14c strike price with a 19 month expiry.

[JBmurc]

Just read not sure if official though:
Cap raising is at 10.5c with free options 1:3, the options have a 14c strike price with a 19 month expiry.

https://www.freshequities.com/ASX/rle

yes bloody disgusting unless the OA are being extended then they are likely gone >>why they didn't just get the same guys to underwrite the opts ... stinks of insider trading ...we all know about upcoming GSA-pipline approvals-reserves cash in the bank to get us through to the OA's

[JBmurc]

Not sure if you guys keeping eye on HC forum but not looking so bad now that the OA's will likely have a 3month extension to 15th JULY 19..

which for myself with a large amount of OA is brilliant news .. a real bi-polar day but overall looking a much better outcome than first thought

[Hectorplains]

What chance another CR looming...

...and so it did.

[Hectorplains]

Not sure if you guys keeping eye on HC forum but not looking so bad now that the OA's will likely have a 3month extension to 15th JULY 19..

which for myself with a large amount of OA is brilliant news .. a real bi-polar day but overall looking a much better outcome than first thought

I guess if you can tolerate Brown's 'management' there's a good chance of picking up heads at sub 10c after Friday. Each to their own if that's classified as a 'better outcome."

[JBmurc]

I guess if you can tolerate Brown's 'management' there's a good chance of picking up heads at sub 10c after Friday. Each to their own if that's classified as a 'better outcome."

certainly looking forward to seeing the term sheet and if the posts are right with OA ex.date extension to 15th JULY then maybe developments costs are much higher next month.. so either place shares now for 2.5mill+ or wait hoping OAs where going to be converted in 6 wks time

Makes sense securing funds asap will push the project forward esp if your getting pressure from a new major GSA that need to see the pipelines in place and flowing Gas for RLE to secure the GSA over another supplier as they say time is money..

[Joshuatree]

Download Document 407.03KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4g26y hDxv%2BV1%2BrFiGug%3D)

10.5c including 1 for 3 2020 options @ 14c.

[Hectorplains]

Download Document 407.03KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4g26y hDxv%2BV1%2BrFiGug%3D)

10.5c including 1 for 3 2020 options @ 14c.

Sweet for those who could get them: a 20+ % discount to the closing price and a FAR better options deal than the A's offered to 'loyal' shareholders.

No news on extending the A's either - are they dead ducks? What a mess.

[JBmurc]

Sweet for those who could get them: a 20+ % discount to the closing price and a FAR better options deal than the A's offered to 'loyal' shareholders.

No news on extending the A's either - are they dead ducks? What a mess.

https://soundcloud.com/user-246928730/episode-27-real-energy-managing-director-scott-brown

Points I took from the interview with SB

End of April for Reserves>>

Has Debt finance available>>

likely to get funds from OA's and working on extending ex.date 3months to JULY 19>>

hopes to get GSA signed off next Qtr... MAY-JUNE???

So from that, I'm certainly not selling any and really hoping to see the extension of the OA's
unless they are 90% sure to be dead(with the above details) .. really was the only way we S/H got included to leverage into a major success (outside buying the OB's) really have to be bitter RLE holder to not vote for the extension

[Hectorplains]

https://soundcloud.com/user-246928730/episode-27-real-energy-managing-director-scott-brown

Points I took from the interview with SB

End of April for Reserves>>

Has Debt finance available>>

likely to get funds from OA's and working on extending ex.date 3months to JULY 19>>

hopes to get GSA signed off next Qtr... MAY-JUNE???

So from that, I'm certainly not selling any and really hoping to see the extension of the OA's
unless they are 90% sure to be dead(with the above details) .. really was the only way we S/H got included to leverage into a major success (outside buying the OB's) really have to be bitter RLE holder to not vote for the extension

I take the validity most of what Brown says with caution... more so now than ever.

My understanding is the extension of the OA's is not merely at the decision of shareholder vote. Requires ASX dispensation and RLE's situation may not be sufficient for that to be granted?

[JBmurc]

I take the validity most of what Brown says with caution... more so now than ever.

My understanding is the extension of the OA's is not merely at the decision of shareholder vote. Requires ASX dispensation and RLE's situation may not be sufficient for that to be granted?

Maybe... the OA's were never used to raise cash but a loyality bonus to all S/H's

So hoping this and the fact of there very short-dated will sway the ASX to allow a three-month extension as delays out of RLE control will see all major news coming late April to JULY they seem to have nil issues with shares trading pre ann insider trading etc or illeagl disclosure from ASX listed companies ...every week seem some retail S/H's getting shafted by a dodgy Micro cap Mgmt ...ASX turn a blind eye ..

Will be pissed if we can't get a small extension too what is basically a 12c raising gifted to S/H's

[Hectorplains]

Maybe... the OA's were never used to raise cash but a loyality bonus to all S/H's

So hoping this and the fact of there very short-dated will sway the ASX to allow a three-month extension as delays out of RLE control will see all major news coming late April to JULY they seem to have nil issues with shares trading pre ann insider trading etc or illeagl disclosure from ASX listed companies ...every week seem some retail S/H's getting shafted by a dodgy Micro cap Mgmt ...ASX turn a blind eye ..

Will be pissed if we can't get a small extension too what is basically a 12c raising gifted to S/H's

Worth a quick read, the table is useful... https://stockhead.com.au/energy/why-didnt-all-of-those-queensland-gas-takeovers-happen-last-year

The thesis of it didn't happen then, so it's more likely now ... is one I'm usually not that comfortable with. However, the metrics in this space are compelling!

[JBmurc]

Worth a quick read, the table is useful... https://stockhead.com.au/energy/why-didnt-all-of-those-queensland-gas-takeovers-happen-last-year

The thesis of it didn't happen then, so it's more likely now ... is one I'm usually not that comfortable with. However, the metrics in this space are compelling!

Yes one would think if RLE can prove up a sizable reserves its only going be a matter of time till STO/BPT/ORG makes a move

[JBmurc]

Just spoken with RLE MD again sounds like they have been trying to get the OA's extented but the ASX has been non-responsive on the matter
another plan RLE are looking at is letting OA holder convert into OB's at a discounted rate (I'm hoping 2:1)

Hopefully we will find out soon enough.. sounds like Gas reserves won't be till later April after OA ex.date

[t.rexjr]

Just spoken with RLE MD again sounds like they have been trying to get the OA's extented but the ASX has been non-responsive on the matter
another plan RLE are looking at is letting OA holder convert into OB's at a discounted rate (I'm hoping 2:1)

Hopefully we will find out soon enough.. sounds like Gas reserves won't be till later April after OA ex.date

Well currently comparative price of OAs to OBs is near 8:1. If 2:1 was a sniff you're looking at a 400% gain. If you've got nil risk aversion because of the money tree in the back yard then it might be worth a gamble...

Definitely not advice worth acting upon so do not do it (unless you do have said money tree)

[JBmurc]

Well currently the comparative price of OAs to OBs is near 8:1. If 2:1 was a sniff you're looking at a 400% gain. If you've got nil risk aversion because of the money tree in the back yard then it might be worth a gamble...

Definitely not advice worth acting upon so do not do it (unless you do have said money tree)

Well, I'm hoping it will be 2:1... Many OA holders like myself have averages above 3c

I understand they really wanted to extend OA's a couple of months but looks like time has run out for this option... So plan be B is the OB's
which would still need S/H support and we could see it voted down by holders

And maybe nothing is done and they expire worthlessly IMHO 50% chance

certainly high risk even at these levels ...but I'm not selling as I'll only get 12% of my capital back

[JBmurc]

Well with latest info out I sold my OA's for a major loss @ .005 and sold the other half of the head shares for a profit 9.7c sitting on the sidelines think we will see more downwards pressure till later April when reserves should be out..

Gutted the OA's had Huge potential but in hindsight should have sold my free OA's and just purchased head shares and OB's damm the last CR just killed them off

[t.rexjr]

Well with latest info out I sold my OA's for a major loss @ .005 and sold the other half of the head shares for a profit 9.7c sitting on the sidelines think we will see more downwards pressure till later April when reserves should be out..

Gutted the OA's had Huge potential but in hindsight should have sold my free OA's and just purchased head shares and OB's damm the last CR just killed them off

I'm taking the OBs offer. (Though my OA holding was minimal) OBs are my main focus anyway.

Reckon Hotcoppers patrons have their knickers in a twist. Yeah another poorly timed/managed cap raise for the wee people. 1.9c for the OBs is pretty good going compared to the now near worthless OAs. I don't see too much dumping or pumping going to happen with this transfer/raise as it's to holders, not instos. Not much for them to gain. Only a few disgruntlers like yourself...

Punters forget that the Directors duty is to the company not shareholders. #1 is keeping company solvent. I reckon the players would have killed off the OAs anyway as they make nil out of option conversion and want their cap raise with free shares. Should management have hoped the OAs come through? I think it was too close to the deadline to rely on that. It's the wild west that ASX...

[JBmurc]

I'm taking the OBs offer. (Though my OA holding was minimal) OBs are my main focus anyway.

Reckon Hotcoppers patrons have their knickers in a twist. Yeah another poorly timed/managed cap raise for the wee people. 1.9c for the OBs is pretty good going compared to the now near worthless OAs. I don't see too much dumping or pumping going to happen with this transfer/raise as it's to holders, not instos. Not much for them to gain. Only a few disgruntlers like yourself...

Punters forget that the Directors duty is to the company not shareholders. #1 is keeping company solvent. I reckon the players would have killed off the OAs anyway as they make nil out of option conversion and want their cap raise with free shares. Should management have hoped the OAs come through? I think it was too close to the deadline to rely on that. It's the wild west that ASX...

It sure is>>> Glad to watch from the sidelines I think I'll be buying OB for closer to 2c next month ...still not 100% certain the OA to OB deal will go ahead so risks there .. took over 20% profit from the head shares ...only wish I didn't have such a big OA exposure .... was always a gamble and I got 25% back of what was invested...

Took a net loss ...but could have been much worse had I been trying to sell today or later IMHO

[Hectorplains]

I'm taking the OBs offer. (Though my OA holding was minimal) OBs are my main focus anyway.

Reckon Hotcoppers patrons have their knickers in a twist. Yeah another poorly timed/managed cap raise for the wee people. 1.9c for the OBs is pretty good going compared to the now near worthless OAs. I don't see too much dumping or pumping going to happen with this transfer/raise as it's to holders, not instos. Not much for them to gain. Only a few disgruntlers like yourself...

Punters forget that the Directors duty is to the company not shareholders. #1 is keeping company solvent. I reckon the players would have killed off the OAs anyway as they make nil out of option conversion and want their cap raise with free shares. Should management have hoped the OAs come through? I think it was too close to the deadline to rely on that. It's the wild west that ASX...

The application for extension was a longshot. It should have been presented as such. Another black mark for SB.

[Hectorplains]

The application for extension was a longshot. It should have been presented as such. Another black mark for SB.
A detailed dig on past performances by key players is worth the effort. I believe RLE has the goods...I'm not sure that management do.

[JBmurc]

The application for extension was a longshot. It should have been presented as such. Another black mark for SB.

Yes he's getting a few I see another in Mgmt position dumped his OAs recently ...not hopefully or keen to take up the OB's

[t.rexjr]

Yes he's getting a few I see another in Mgmt position dumped his OAs recently ...not hopefully or keen to take up the OB's

I don't see anything to read into that dump of OA's. He probably just didn't want to hand over 7K to convert. He's got 20m heads why bother spending money on 350k more options when he wants a new jet ski.

[JBmurc]

I don't see anything to read into that dump of OA's. He probably just didn't want to hand over 7K to convert. He's got 20m heads why bother spending money on 350k more options when he wants a new jet ski.

Well for one RLE won't have any major updates on operations pre mid April .. flat to down next 3 weeks trading

[Hectorplains]

Well for one RLE won't have any major updates on operations pre mid April .. flat to down next 3 weeks trading

...hence why I've not bother apply for OB's. The head share at 8.3c represents significantly better value... if one wants to increase their exposure to this stock.

[JBmurc]

I see Tully on HC in talking with RLE Mgmt thinks RLE will have major delays for reserves JULY etc ... not doubt annoucement on delay soon as tully has been pretty spot on in the past ... low 7's coming if thats the case sub 2c OB's

[Hectorplains]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190523/pdf/4459vmb1tpmxry.pdf

As they say, the struggle is real. Not good news and now the question of potentially another CR? Not that RLE would do anything transparent...like address that in the announcement.

[JBmurc]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190523/pdf/4459vmb1tpmxry.pdf

As they say, the struggle is real. Not good news and now the question of potentially another CR? Not that RLE would do anything transparent...like address that in the announcement.

Yes not a great picture ... still, haven't moved even though the OBs are now trading below 2c ... thinking the next CR could well be 6c etc

[Hectorplains]

Yes not a great picture ... still, haven't moved even though the OBs are now trading below 2c ... thinking the next CR could well be 6c etc


Implications of the tax ruling are significant - in my opinion a repeal is highly unlikely. Down to 6c today. They urgently need good results out of Tam 2 and 3, AND a further cash raise looks inevitable, at what thou... 3 cents? RLE is being diluted to oblivion.

[Hectorplains]

Implications of the tax ruling are significant - in my opinion a repeal is highly unlikely. Down to 6c today. They urgently need good results out of Tam 2 and 3, AND a further cash raise looks inevitable, at what thou... 3 cents? RLE is being diluted to oblivion.

Scott whispered more sweet nothings and excuses on the teleconference.

[JBmurc]

What a DOG ...RLE just as we predicted going down the drain ... wish I never picked for one of my ASX comp picks.... but could be worse could be still holding

[silu]

I had it on my watchlist based on this thread but luckily never bought in. So if the wells are not commercial at all they will go belly-up or is there a turnaround story in the offering here?

[JBmurc]

I had it on my watchlist based on this thread but luckily never bought in. So if the wells are not commercial at all they will go belly-up or is there a turnaround story in the offering here?

Who knows plenty of dreamers on HC that think its great buying ... but they have been saying the same since 14c
looks very risky to me .... need 6mill to build pipeline + more drilling funds but then decline rates look steep hard to see much profit from operations IMHO

[silu]

Who knows plenty of dreamers on HC that think its great buying ... but they have been saying the same since 14c
looks very risky to me .... need 6mill to build pipeline + more drilling funds but then decline rates look steep hard to see much profit from operations IMHO

Yeah way too risky for me. Glad you got out in time.

[JBmurc]

Yeah way too risky for me. Glad you got out in time.

Got out for a nice profit which is always good when you now look at what could have been a -60% paper loss

[bermuda]

JB,
Got in and out for a small loss . But I have it in the comp which is a big negative. Scott B has really underperformed. Quite incompetent really.