INA - Ingenia Communities Group

[BlackPeter]

Funny - I thought there was a thread for this little jewel, but for some reason I can't find it.

INA is one of the Retirement stocks ... with a somewhat different model. Their main business is basically to buy up nice holiday parks and turn them over time into (at least as nice) pre-fab retirement villages. Their locations are typically desirable tourist spots with a sheltered beach or lake and other beautiful landscape around, they have a pool, a shop (and presumably a bowling green) and attract the generation which spent most of their holidays in these parks. If you enjoyed this lifestyle during your holidays - than why not retire here as well? The difference .. they don't sell their cabins, they rent them out (i.e. ideal for people just dependant on their pension), and they provide as well all necessary care services for their occupants.

INA had (despite rather healthy fundamentals: analyst consensus $3.22, forward PE: 12.6 combined with a growth rate close to 30% - admittedly lots of that financed with CR's) a rather quiet phase on the share market - basically moving up and down around the $2.80 (+/-25 cents) and at the moment more at the lower end.

4-traders calls them a BUY (based on 3 analyst opinions);

Here is their latest investor presentation: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170620/pdf/43k1hz5ny61mcr.pdf

They announced today that they managed to exceed even their already upgraded sales figures:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170705/pdf/43kfp6cvh6sqhg.pdf

... and the market doesn't make a move!

But then, maybe this is the reason Ellerston Capital was recently buying in big:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170605/pdf/43jr5rzgh3n5g5.pdf

They say on their website:

Ellerston Capital is a specialist investment manager with a distinctive approach to portfolio construction and investment selection.
Our investment approach is designed to focus on opportunities the market may have overlooked – exploiting inefficiencies by identifying stocks that are temporarily misunderstood and fundamentally mispriced.

Inspirational.

Discl: holding (XL)

[percy]

There was a thread.
May have been started by KW and deleted when she left Sharetrader.

[Joshuatree]

Excellent , many thanks for enriching the ASX threads with your presence BP and putting a stock in the mix:t_up:. May more folks bring their stock picks in too and grow and diversify it.
INA has been on my watchlist a few years but it seemed out of reach price wise and its tracked sideways since 2013 (bit like our RYM?) .
Ive always liked their holiday park buy up strategy part of the business.
Mkt Cap $537 mill , current PE (ASB) adjusted 19.64 don't know if any oppies.
Thanks too for the bunch of links.

Great target for 2018 if achievable making averaging in on weak s/p days an opp . Also like the fact it some of the negative stuff going down with AOG etc with the 4 corners programme.Looks to be getting to a well positioned growth expansion rate now with that emit target of $42-$46 mill for 2018.



"Ingenia Communities Group (ASX:INA) today announced that the Group had exceeded itsupgraded FY17 target of 190 new home settlements across the Group’s lifestyle communitiesbusiness, with 211 new home settlements completed at 30 June 2017. This result underpinsdelivery of the Group’s FY17 EBIT guidance, of $30 million.
Ingenia’s CEO, Simon Owen, said the Group was well positioned to continue to deliver stronggrowth in settlements in FY18, with 135 homes contracted or deposited (including 29 homesat the soon to be launched projects, The Grange and Lake Conjola) at 30 June 2017.
“We are continuing to deliver growth through our development business, with new homesettlements of 211 up 97% on new home settlements in FY16. Following May’s record newsettlements of 34 new homes, June was also a strong month with 28 new home settlements.”
“With our established projects performing well and key projects including Latitude One andThe Grange now underway we are confident of delivering on our target of 260 – 280 new homesettlements in the 2018 financial year.”
“As we move into FY18, the impact of recent and pending acquisitions and an increasednumber of new home settlements will contribute to our EBIT target of $42-46 million for FY18.”

[percy]

Just revisited INA .Compared them with GTY Gateway Lifestyle.
INA is trading at the same price it was two years ago while GTY is slightly below what it was then.
INA Ingenia Group,206,381,419 shares at $2.62 gives a market cap of $540,719,318.
eps.13.24
PE .19.79
NTA.$2.44
Yield 3.87%

GTY.Gateway Lifestyle.299,397,735 shares at $1.95 gives a market cap of $583,825,583.
eps.14.01
PE.13.92
NTA.$1.39
Yiels 4.67.
At this stage I will not buy either.
ps.INA is an old favourite KW put me into at 7.5 cents and I sold out over 35 cents.That was offcourse before they consolidated the shares.

[BlackPeter]

Full year results are out and looking good: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017082...jx68dpfkzk.pdf

Amazing Topline growth (+40%) - and a credible explanation for the bottom line not following (yet). Market seems to like the results as well.

BTW - they say, they are now in the ASX300 - which would mean that they should be according to the new IRD rules FIF exempt come 2018 return time (but don't take my word for it - I am no tax expert).

[Valleytrader]

I'm an investor in Ingenia Communities.

I note that an investment in Ingenia Communities makes up a sizeable proportion of Ron Brierley's Mercantile Investment Company's investment in Australian listed shares ($18.1m out of a total of $34.1m as at 30 June 2017, and compares with a total asset value for Mercentile Investment Co of $76.1m). https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/266425.pdf

[BlackPeter]

New Investor update coincides with increased interest in this in my view quite undervalued stock:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171011/pdf/43n4b6h17cgxsj.pdf

They intend to fund future growth organically - which should help the SP to move North-wards.

Analysts predict healthy EPS growth to continue, and the SP (despite starting to nudge upwards) looks still very friendly with a forward PE of 13.7 and a CAGR of 27.6 (@$2.71)

Discl: hold (XL);

[Ggcc]

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/CompanyReports/Ingenia-Communities-Group/Ingenia%2C-FY18-Results-Presentation

[Joshuatree]

Mkt didn't like outlook projections? Dont hold but have always liked their business model.Results look fab but baked in?

Y19 guidance growth forecast 27 Guidance Comment New home settlements 350+ Strong deposits and contracts in place but dependent on timing of key projects, including Plantations EBIT1 10-15% growth Growth driven by increased settlements target partially offset by loss of earnings on non-core asset sales (~$3.4 million) Underlying profit EPS1,2 5-10% growth 1. EBIT and underlying profit are non-IFRS measures which exclude non operating items such as unrealised fair value gains/(losses) and gains/(losses) on asset sales. 2. Guidance is subject to no material adverse change in market conditions. 3. Future growth is based on a number of assumptions, including securing additional development approvals and no material adverse change in market conditions. FY19 builds on the strong growth delivered in FY18 Front Office Manager, Jennifer Richards of Ingenia Holidays Cairns Coconut testing the new water slide Business positioned for average EBIT growth of 15%+ over FY19 and FY203

[Ggcc]

Mkt didn't like outlook projections? Dont hold but have always liked their business model.Results look fab but baked in?

Y19 guidance growth forecast 27 Guidance Comment New home settlements 350+ Strong deposits and contracts in place but dependent on timing of key projects, including Plantations EBIT1 10-15% growth Growth driven by increased settlements target partially offset by loss of earnings on non-core asset sales (~$3.4 million) Underlying profit EPS1,2 5-10% growth 1. EBIT and underlying profit are non-IFRS measures which exclude non operating items such as unrealised fair value gains/(losses) and gains/(losses) on asset sales. 2. Guidance is subject to no material adverse change in market conditions. 3. Future growth is based on a number of assumptions, including securing additional development approvals and no material adverse change in market conditions. FY19 builds on the strong growth delivered in FY18 Front Office Manager, Jennifer Richards of Ingenia Holidays Cairns Coconut testing the new water slide Business positioned for average EBIT growth of 15%+ over FY19 and FY203
The share price has been quiet for a very long time. They need to prove themselves to the market over the longterm. I can see this becoming another share that in the next 5 years will double in sp. They seem to be running things well and I have owned these for approximately 4 years. I only hold approximately 15000 shares of them and am adding more through Dividend Investment Sceme.

[BlackPeter]

The share price has been quiet for a very long time. They need to prove themselves to the market over the longterm. I can see this becoming another share that in the next 5 years will double in sp. They seem to be running things well and I have owned these for approximately 4 years. I only hold approximately 15000 shares of them and am adding more through Dividend Investment Sceme.

Yep, results look ok, but clearly below market expectations. Obviously - they do have a huge revenue CAGR, but this does not really count given that most of it is bought with Capital rises (including DRP). More interesting is the EPS CAGR (some would say - the only number which really counts) - and if I take that since they've been in the black numbers (since 2014), it is 11 %. Not bad, but not outrageous either.

However - if I take the 2015 to 2018 number, than EPS is flat ... so I guess, they still need to work a bit to convince the market that they are a consistent earner and able to grow without constant cap rises.

Forward EPS CAGR 2014 to 2020 is still 15%, but who knows - analysts might change their views after this result and after reading in the outlook just another excuse for a somewhat depressed 2019 EPS.

Time for the board to pull the finger and allow INA to be the outstanding growth company it could be without constant capital recycling. Don't recycle what you can just improve and keep using ....

[BlackPeter]

Interview with Simon Owen:

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network190467.html

... you probably need to register to access it - but registration is free.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181107/pdf/4402jghn46g4n4.pdf

I guess difficult to assess at this early stage, but than - a strategic partnership with a company which more than tenfolded shareholder value in 10 years (that's a CAGR above 25) sounds quite exciting, doesn't it?

Lets hope INA can learn from them at the dinner table - instead of just finding out they might be the dinner ;);

Any other holders or watchers around?

[BlackPeter]

Looking good:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181113/pdf/44077vxw5bjh6w.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181113/pdf/440781q2w5rll5.pdf

Solid outlook from the CEO:


Today I am pleased to confirm the Group’s earnings guidance – noting that we did upgrade EBIT guidance last week.
New home sales remain on track for 350+ settlements. The key variable factors here primarily relate to how many homes we can build and sell at Latitude One and Plantations – noting that the first resident is not scheduled to move into Plantations until March 2019.
EBIT guidance for the year was upgraded last week to 15-20% growth - up from 10-15% - following the two acquisitions announced last week. I think it is important to remember that the FY18 EBIT was up by over 50%. In this context, 15-20% growth is pretty solid!

[BlackPeter]

Just in case anybody else is watching this little gem .... it is looking really good and it appears the market is waking up. Love this trend:

10747

Discl: Happy long term holder ...

[Joshuatree]

Congrats BP and others , a 20 bagger on 10 years? I blinked. And the future looks bright
Download Document 436.04KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4ga5w Bbzv%2F53%2FrFiGug%3D)

[BlackPeter]

Congrats BP and others , a 20 bagger on 10 years? I blinked. And the future looks bright
Download Document 436.04KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4ga5w Bbzv%2F53%2FrFiGug%3D)

Yep - SP sort of took off, didn't it? And I think still lots of grunt left - the partnership with Sun seems to work out.

I was hoping that SP drops slightly after the CR to fill up some more, but so far this strategy does not seem to work out ... quite disappointing, isn't it?

[Beagle]

Congrats BP and others , a 20 bagger on 10 years? I blinked. And the future looks bright
Download Document 436.04KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4ga5w Bbzv%2F53%2FrFiGug%3D)

Not sure its a 20 bagger "And the share price has increased more than six-fold. But what gets me excited is that the best years for Ingenia lay ahead of us". but it does look to have some good points of differentiation to the other retirement providers and I am happy Barramundi has a stake in them, (I have a large stake in BRM).

[Joshuatree]

Been a fertile period for buying holiday parks.Cap raise?


Ann: Acquisition and trading (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-acquisition-and-trading-update.5831944/)

Download Document 4.42MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qm8y xLyv%2F53%2FrFiGug%3D)

[BlackPeter]

Been a fertile period for buying holiday parks.Cap raise?


Ann: Acquisition and trading (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-acquisition-and-trading-update.5831944/)

Download Document 4.42MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qm8y xLyv%2F53%2FrFiGug%3D)

Possible ... so far I have done well supporting them :):

[wizAlvin]

53 competition entries - still time for the 2021 competition 30 mins