ATL.Apollo Tourism and Leisure

[percy]

179,944,265 shares on issue ,at $1.40 gives a market cap of $251,921,971.
This businesss is very similar to THL Tourism Holdings in NZ.
In May ATL provided an update, where they stated they expected to be 5% to 10% above prospectus forecast.
They operate in Australia,NZ,USA and Canada.
I was pleased to see www.dmxam.com.au hold ATL,and their commentary in their July investor update was very positive..
On my travels I have noted a lot of their very nice camper vans.
Tourism is a growing sector,so I am happy to hold both ATL and THL.
I brought in today at $1.40.

[Carpenterjoe]

Thanks Percy.

They do seem to carrying a bit of debt, have you picked up any information on how or they plan to manage or reduce their liabilities balance? Seems like a nice little earner tho, they are aiming for NPAT of 16.3.

[percy]

Yes a nice little earner.
Full year result is due shortly,so we will then get a fuller picture of their accounts.
In growth mode,so I would expect they will continue to use their balance sheet for acquisitions.
So far the acquisitions have made sense.

[percy]

Very much as expected a very solid result.
Recent acquisitions have laid the foundations for strong growth.
A sound business in a world wide growth sector.
Looks to me as though eps growth will be higher than their PE.That is a very real margin of safety to me.

[percy]

Closed at $1.71 yesterday.
Looks as though we are " well positioned."

[Justin]

hi Percy, what’s the good entry point do you think right now, thanks.

[percy]

hi Percy, what’s the good entry point do you think right now, thanks.

I don't know.
They sat around $1.40 for awhile.
Not sure whether the recent strength is the Aussie's waking up to ATL's potential, or the Chinese's buying into THL having a flow on effect.
I think they are still good buying at current prices.Saying that I mean as a buy and hold stock,not as a trading stock.I try to buy good stocks.If I am right I buy more.If I am wrong I sell.With ATL I am looking to buy more.

[JeremyALD]

I don't know.
They sat around $1.40 for awhile.
Not sure whether the recent strength is the Aussie's waking up to ATL's potential, or the Chinese's buying into THL having a flow on effect.
I think they are still good buying at current prices.Saying that I mean as a buy and hold stock,not as a trading stock.I try to buy good stocks.If I am right I buy more.If I am wrong I sell.With ATL I am looking to buy more.


Probably a bit of both but I see a lot of strength above $1.50 now so if you get in anywhere before $1.65 I think that's a decent entry. I myself have bought a few at that price

[Justin]

Hi all, why dropped heavily recently, any news updated？ And is this good entry point now?

[percy]

No news and the sp $1.52, has come back to test the 90day moving average $1.51,but still remains well ahead of the 180 day moving average $1.43.
May pay to wait and see whether the sp bounces up ,or continues down before deciding.
Half year result is due in February.
I continue to hold.I did notice a lot of their camper vans on the road, on my recent trip to The West Coast.A lot of THL's as well.
The out look for the sector is good.

[Justin]

No news and the sp $1.52, has come back to test the 90day moving average $1.51,but still remains well ahead of the 180 day moving average $1.43.
May pay to wait and see whether the sp bounces up ,or continues down before deciding.
Half year result is due in February.
I continue to hold.I did notice a lot of their camper vans on the road, on my recent trip to The West Coast.A lot of THL's as well.
The out look for the sector is good.

thanks percy，bought some today:p

[percy]

A very positive half year result out today.
Looking for growth in all divisions.
Current share price of $1.99 looks to have a lot further to run.
Forward US tax rate is most welcome.
Just hang on and enjoy the ride Justin.

[JeremyALD]

A very positive half year result out today.
Looking for growth in all divisions.
Current share price of $1.99 looks to have a lot further to run.
Forward US tax rate is most welcome.
Just hang on and enjoy the ride Justin.

Better buy than THL at current levels you reckon Percy? I have a few Atl but a lot more THL

[percy]

Better buy than THL at current levels you reckon Percy? I have a few Atl but a lot more THL

Will be interesting as I hold more ATL than THL.!..??..lol.
The market did not like ATL's result as much as I did.?

[babymonster]

Same here not sure why the sp felt.

[Justin]

A very positive half year result out today.
Looking for growth in all divisions.
Current share price of $1.99 looks to have a lot further to run.
Forward US tax rate is most welcome.
Just hang on and enjoy the ride Justin.

Thanks Percy,Happy holding, maybe top up more today.

[LAC]

Just read the report, how the hell did the share price head south after that result???

[percy]

Just read the report, how the hell did the share price head south after that result???

"The result for December 2017 includes a one off gain at acquisition of $2.5mil from revaluing the existing shareholding in CanaDream".
That may have spooked the market.
The business is also a bit seasonal,however, take the NPAT of $16mil,and deduct $2.5mil leaves $13.5mil which is 70% of broker's forecast full year's earnings of $19.5mil.ATL have confirmed they expect to meet brokers' forecast.
My own feelings are seasonal earnings may not be weighted as high as 70% 1st half, to 30% 2nd half.This is because they operate in Canada,USA,Australia and NZ.I also think the peak season in all countries is being extended all the time.I note the half year ended 31st December.I know from my past years travels there are still a lot of Apollo camper vans on the road until late April.4 busy months.Then USA/Canada should start getting a bit busier in May/June.
ATL are also big in manufacturing and campervan sales, which should have more even sales.
ATL are only really starting to see the benefits of their recent acquisitions.
The presentation commentary was very positive,and I think ATL will do well in this strong growth sector.
.

[JeremyALD]

"The result for December 2017 includes a one off gain at acquisition of $2.5mil from revaluing the existing shareholding in CanaDream".
That may have spooked the market.
The business is also a bit seasonal,however, take the NPAT of $16mil,and deduct $2.5mil leaves $13.5mil which is 70% of broker's forecast full year's earnings of $19.5mil.ATL have confirmed they expect to meet brokers' forecast.
My own feelings are seasonal earnings may not be weighted as high as 70% 1st half, to 30% 2nd half.This is because they operate in Canada,USA,Australia and NZ.I also think the peak season in all countries is being extended all the time.I note the half year ended 31st December.I know from my past years travels there are still a lot of Apollo camper vans on the road until late April.4 busy months.Then USA/Canada should start getting a bit busier in May/June.
ATL are also big in manufacturing and campervan sales, which should have more even sales.
ATL are only really starting to see the benefits of their recent acquisitions.
The presentation commentary was very positive,and I think ATL will do well in this strong growth sector.
.

Good thoughts Percy. Whilst the report was positive I did notice their language differs a lot from THL. As an example they constantly said "in line with expectations" rather than "exceeds expectations. I'm happy to hold both THL and ATL as I think the sector is very positive and had plenty of opportunities for both.

[LAC]

"The result for December 2017 includes a one off gain at acquisition of $2.5mil from revaluing the existing shareholding in CanaDream".
That may have spooked the market.
The business is also a bit seasonal,however, take the NPAT of $16mil,and deduct $2.5mil leaves $13.5mil which is 70% of broker's forecast full year's earnings of $19.5mil.ATL have confirmed they expect to meet brokers' forecast.
My own feelings are seasonal earnings may not be weighted as high as 70% 1st half, to 30% 2nd half.This is because they operate in Canada,USA,Australia and NZ.I also think the peak season in all countries is being extended all the time.I note the half year ended 31st December.I know from my past years travels there are still a lot of Apollo camper vans on the road until late April.4 busy months.Then USA/Canada should start getting a bit busier in May/June.
ATL are also big in manufacturing and campervan sales, which should have more even sales.
ATL are only really starting to see the benefits of their recent acquisitions.
The presentation commentary was very positive,and I think ATL will do well in this strong growth sector.
.
Thanks for that.

[percy]

Good thoughts Percy. Whilst the report was positive I did notice their language differs a lot from THL. As an example they constantly said "in line with expectations" rather than "exceeds expectations. I'm happy to hold both THL and ATL as I think the sector is very positive and had plenty of opportunities for both.

Yes the market really likes those companies that "exceed expectations",and punishes those which are only "in line with expectations."
I also agree with your comments the sector is positive and plenty of opportunities for both.

[Arbroath]

Yes the market really likes those companies that "exceed expectations",and punishes those which are only "in line with expectations."
I also agree with your comments the sector is positive and plenty of opportunities for both.

I'm not so sure about Apollo Percy. I haven't delved into Apollo as deeply as I have THL but Apollo looks to have quite a lot of debt and not be performing as strongly operationally to me. Acquisitions, negative cash flows, small dividends which is sensible given all the debt but I'd be concerned about their execution. If they make mistakes the debt will get them.

Contrast with THL which makes more profit, pays much higher relative dividends, and has $100m or so less debt and overall much less balance sheet leverage. THL is definitely the safer investment to me but if Apollo execute very well they may outperform due to the leverage etc.

As I say I haven't delved into Apollo deeply - am I missing something obvious?

[percy]

Some of the debt,and some of the cashflow outgoings were for acquisitions,before those acquisitions produced cashflow.
Debt and the true cashflow position will most probably be easier for me to comment on at the year's end.
In the meantime the acqusitions look sound,and new factory etc looks as though they will produce savings.Integration on course,and outlook positive.

[percy]

Pipebuilder has posted Morgans' updated research on ATL, on Hotcopper.
Well worth reading.

[percy]

finnigan86 has posted a great post on ATL thread at www.hotcopper.com.au.
The article ;Apollo's Luke Trouchet on building an international business 'one step at a time' came from www.businessnewsaus.com.au
Perhaps a kind poster here would post the link.?

[winner69]

finnigan86 has posted a great post on ATL thread at www.hotcopper.com.au.
The article ;Apollo's Luke Trouchet on building an international business 'one step at a time' came from www.businessnewsaus.com.au
Perhaps a kind poster here would post the link.?

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/apollo-s-luke-trouchet-on-building-an-international-business--one-step-at-a-time-.html

You need to give them your email address to read the whole thing but it’s free

[percy]

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/apollo-s-luke-trouchet-on-building-an-international-business--one-step-at-a-time-.html

You need to give them your email address to read the whole thing but it’s free

Thanks for posting the link W69.

[DarkHorse]

It's on the verge of my buy list. I generally prefer lower gearing - are you comfortable with their current debt levels, and ability to grow without capital dilution? How cyclical do you think they will be?
LOVing LOV thanks btw:)

[percy]

I think my posts #18 and #23 pretty much covers my thoughts.
I read somewhere today tourist numbers in NZ were very high in January.See PS at the bottom of my post..
I was just thinking how our holidays have changed.A couple of years ago, we would just get in a plane and fly to Gold Coast,or Auckland,and just stop at a motel when we either felt tired, or liked the look of a place.Nowdays with so many tourists, we have to book our motels months in advance.,
So the sector has plenty of worldwide growth.
Did you see the way ATL clip the ticket on the appliance they put in their rental vans,or the vans they sell.Clip the ticket forever.!!
LOV.We have to hang onto our winners.

PS.Cymonger's post #2450 on THL Tourism Holdings thread, gives the link to the article.

[DarkHorse]

Good stuff cheers for that.
As for NZ tourism, saw Oprah Winfrey on the hugely popular Late Show the other night; raving about NZ being a must visit, with Stephen Colbert agreeing.

[Justin]

who's keep selling？what is the bottom？ :confused:

[bull....]

who's keep selling？what is the bottom？ :confused:

i owned this sold most in the 1.90s the last after there result as far as the bottom goes 0 , as for the present who knows? not as good an operation as thl

[percy]

i owned this sold most in the 1.90s the last after there result as far as the bottom goes 0 , as for the present who knows? not as good an operation as thl

THL going up,ATL going down.
Not good for ATL .
Not meeting expectations has seen ATL punished.

[JeremyALD]

Hmm to sell or hold is the question.

Has a long way to fall considering the IPO price was $1 not that long ago

[percy]

Hmm to sell or hold is the question.

Has a long way to fall considering the IPO price was $1 not that long ago

The answer is most probably a lot different for each of us.
I sold two thirds of my ATL holding late yesterday.
My Aussie shares are brought for growth,not dividends.This means if there is a slowdown,or weakness in the share price I must be prepared to sell. Yes I should have sold a lot earlier.
This approach is a lot different to my "core" NZ holdings,which are selected for their capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies,and the share price is nowdays secondary to me.
In the back of my mind I keep thinking back to my investment in AQZ.Brought them,and sold out as the market did not see what I saw.When the market woke up I brought back in.About two years later.
May be ATL have not been listed long enough to have "the runs on the board",time will tell.By keeping a holding in them I am "well positioned" to move, should the market decide to rerate them.I also remember it took THL a long time to get their business model right.

[hardt]

Support sitting at 1.50, will get in at around that price with the rest of the market.

[jg8512]

The answer is most probably a lot different for each of us.
I sold two thirds of my ATL holding late yesterday.
My Aussie shares are brought for growth,not dividends.This means if there is a slowdown,or weakness in the share price I must be prepared to sell. Yes I should have sold a lot earlier.
This approach is a lot different to my "core" NZ holdings,which are selected for their capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies,and the share price is nowdays secondary to me.
In the back of my mind I keep thinking back to my investment in AQZ.Brought them,and sold out as the market did not see what I saw.When the market woke up I brought back in.About two years later.
May be ATL have not been listed long enough to have "the runs on the board",time will tell.By keeping a holding in them I am "well positioned" to move, should the market decide to rerate them.I also remember it took THL a long time to get their business model right.

Hi Percy

I know your a Zulu principle fan like I am. I've never held ATL - too short a post listing history - but I continue to monitor. I was wondering if you've ever looked at JYC. Meets most Zulu criteria, esp. Kitchens, but slightly complicated with minorities, property. The Lloyds online business is something new - might be worth a lot more than current profits in a year or two.

apologies to all for the offline topic

[percy]

Hi Percy

I know your a Zulu principle fan like I am. I've never held ATL - too short a post listing history - but I continue to monitor. I was wondering if you've ever looked at JYC. Meets most Zulu criteria, esp. Kitchens, but slightly complicated with minorities, property. The Lloyds online business is something new - might be worth a lot more than current profits in a year or two.

apologies to all for the offline topic

Yes thank you I hold JYC.
The Lloyds online auction business does offer excitement......

PS I have sent you a PM.

[winner69]

You guys piqued my interest in ATL a while ago

Chart makes it look like a 7 day wonder or in this case a 7 month wonder

All that fire and brimstone taking the share price from 140 to 190 and now on the way back to 140,promises not met?

See a few charts like this ......and invariably they never seem to look good again.

I’ll keep ATL on watch ...never know it might be a seven month wonder again. I’ll keep to thl

[Justin]

7 month wonder:scared:

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;708352]You guys piqued my interest in ATL a while ago

Chart makes it look like a 7 day wonder or in this case a 7 month wonder

All that fire and brimstone taking the share price from 140 to 190 and now on the way back to 140,promises not met?

See a few charts like this ......and invariably they never seem to look good again.



THL did...lol.

[hardt]

Support sitting at 1.50, will get in at around that price with the rest of the market.

Looks like it bounced well off 150 this morning and ended pretty strong.

Got in today at 151, a nice debt laden horse to back here.

[JeremyALD]

This has been a right dud for me and is my worst performing share this year. Not quite sure why. I don't hold an awful lot, but for a small market cap stock it is very volitle. Example down 6% today on no news whatsoever. Seems I should of stuck with THL only?

[winner69]

Well the 7 month wonder was truly that .....now a dog of gigantic proportions


Be under a buck before years end



hardt was keen at 150 on the rebound but i betcha he got out before losing anything

[winner69]

I though THL was bad being 28% off its high ....but heck ATL is 45% off its high

Tourism a dog sector eh .....and things are booming they tell me

A bit like the building sector ....boom times and building related stocks are dogs

[percy]

I no longer hold but still have them on a watch list.
I also sold out of BIN.
Think a lot of debt is the concern for both.
ATL's current PE is 10.91.

Off topic but I have had issues with Australian companies no longer paying their dividend by cheque.Must be by direct credit.
OK.Gave BWF all my bank details as per Westpac NZ instructions.Took about a month,three phone calls and emails, then Westpac NZ advised they got some detail wrong.Then Westpac charged a $25 fee.As the dividend in my hands is a gross divie,after tax and Westpac fee my yield is hopeless.OK i therfore sold my BWF shares.
Now I am having the same issues with SEQ.
No problems where I have DRP.

[Ricky-bobby]

So what do people think about this one? They currently have a few issues going on, but after watching for the last year think it’s hit the bottom and could be a good chance to get in for a long-term hold..... have hired a camper off this crowd before and was very impressed with their operation.

[percy]

So what do people think about this one? They currently have a few issues going on, but after watching for the last year think it’s hit the bottom and could be a good chance to get in for a long-term hold..... have hired a camper off this crowd before and was very impressed with their operation.

They are due to announce their result on Thursday 29th August..
Should be able to get an idea of where they are and where they are going from it.
Debt will need to be watched.

[ratkin]

where delete post button?

[percy]

where delete post button?

I can't find it.

[winner69]

I can't find it.

Assumed been disabled to keep the peace

[winner69]

Ricky posted this a new thread he created -


Have you guys been watching this? Big increase over the last week! Camper van sales must be booming at the mo. If it drops down into the 30’s might have sniff. Not sure of the company tho... have hired camper vans off them before and they were excellent, just the last few results are pretty average...

[percy]

Chart says it is a buy as the share price has moved up through both 50 day and 100 day moving averages.
The market says it is a buy.
I feel they still face a lot of head winds,and the very low equity ratio of just 13.2% means they are carrying far too much debt [page 32 February 23rd presentation].

[winner69]

Chart says it is a buy as the share price has moved up through both 50 day and 100 day moving averages.
The market says it is a buy.
I feel they still face a lot of head winds,and the very low equity ratio of just 13.2% means they are carrying far too much debt [page 32 February 23rd presentation].

That debt probably saves then from being taken over

[Ricky-bobby]

Thanks Winner, thought there was already a thread but couldn’t find it...

yep agree heaps of debt and few things to sort for them to get rolling again. Will be an interesting watch for now