Which to buy?? AIA FPH MFT THL

[Jay]

I am looking to purchase one more share for the portfolio and due to current holdings etc have narrowed it down to these 4
AIA, FPH, MFT and THL
Looking for some growth and dividends over the next 2 years maybe longer

All are affected by the dollar, if the NZ weakens (say dropping below 70c US for example) against the US will help all 4 I think, two are in tourism and THL has the best yield currently
Tourism is said to remain high for the next 4-5 years I think I read, however both FPH and MFT seem to keep on keeping on
Decisions, decisions

Thoughts

[Scooter]

In this order THL, FPH, MFT, AIA (think it will shift sideways for next few years)

[LAC]

FPH is a good solid business always impressing but my pick would have to be THL if I HAD to do it myself. Timing on when to buy I honestly dont know. You could wait and get it cheaper then again it just might get out of reach....who knows.

[percy]

I am looking to purchase one more share for the portfolio and due to current holdings etc have narrowed it down to these 4
AIA, FPH, MFT and THL
Looking for some growth and dividends over the next 2 years maybe longer

All are affected by the dollar, if the NZ weakens (say dropping below 70c US for example) against the US will help all 4 I think, two are in tourism and THL has the best yield currently
Tourism is said to remain high for the next 4-5 years I think I read, however both FPH and MGT seem to keep on keeping on
Decisions, decisions

Thoughts

Without knowing what else is in your portfolio, only one of the above has higher eps growth than its PE ratio.That one is THL.
That said, all are very fine companies,and anyone of them would be a good addition to anyone's portfolio.

[Oliver Mander]

Would be (in order) THL, MFT, FPH for me. Wouldn't get into AIA - little growth and a high PE. FPH also has a high PE, but supported by strong growth.
THL feels distinctly undervalued when i look at my own valuations (a consistent theme for a while now) in spite of picking up steam recently - hence being my first pick.

Disc: hold THL, MFT and FPH.

[LAC]

Might squeeze in TRA somewhere in that list:)

[winner69]

If you only buy 1 buy thl

Best medium term growth prospects as they head towards $50m profit

[Hoop]

FPH is a good solid business always impressing but my pick would have to be THL if I HAD to do it myself. Timing on when to buy I honestly dont know. You could wait and get it cheaper then again it just might get out of reach....who knows.

With timing to buy... waiting with up trending stocks you will always be frustrated...just buy it!!! ....

Often while waiting and watch the damn thing rise without you, frustration will eventually cloud your decision-making and create a buy at the top situation (start of a correction).....That not a bad thing in long term up trending stocks as the bull market correction is usually over within months and by holding on you are only underwater for about 3 months...Doing this behaviour with shorter term (or secondary) up trending stocks can be very damaging.

This buy at the top behaviour due to waiting for the stock to become "cheap" is not unusual..this "can't invest properly" thing is a common social problem as most "investors" (some estimate at up to 80%) buy near to the top and sell at out close to the bottom...(Newbies Beware entering the market now because its an easy way to make quick money and its safe using logic it will keep go up because its been going up for as long as I can remember...

You hear about all these media stories about share investing is a muggs game and too risky.. It's because of this "cloaked" greed mentality we have "hot-wired" in our instincts...we all want to buy "cheap bargins".... Solution...think the opposite of your "wait for cheap" instinct..I personally solve this problem by relying on TA buy and sell signals rather than "instinctive logic"....

TA_wise all mentioned THL FPH MFT have continuing buy signals (long term continual uptrending) These (THL FPH MFT) for years now have been the "must have" stocks in any portfolio, especially the longer term buy and hold (with accumulation) portfolios...............AIA is now different..It was one of that group of "must holds" but it's exponential up trend became unsubstainable and broke down exactully one year ago and being kicked out of the "must hold" group in early November 2016 when it broke below the MA200 line and officially turned into a bear.... Even though AIR has meandering sideways triggering short term buy and sell signals it has since March been signaling a continuing negative diverging disvesting sell signals. "instinctive logic" or "educated logic" may suggest property uncertaincies and logistic problems could be behind this negative investor sentiment...but it is dangerous to use either "logics" for buy/sell timing for stocks...e.g The USA sharemarket gurus have been using "expert logic" saying Wall St is extremely over valued..they have been saying that for 3 years now...The problem is, Markets run on sentiment...those 80% of investors I mentioned earlier are still fueling the top end of the market..

When using decision-making to buy a stock, the problem using "Instinctive logic" and "educated logic" is around the processing of information..Too much error using unbalanced weighting variables, most investors heavy weight the "now" situation for predicting a future scenario (long term buy and hold buy in investors).. The next error is over weight factor is using the "rear vision mirror" to judge where ones going forward..Underweighted factor is processing ALL possible future scenarios...Most investors have biases and to add another emotion to the collection is the "now sentiment"....

I notice THL is the hot favourite on this thread....It could partially be because of the "now" factor as it is currently experiencing an exponental up trend (unsubstainable in the longer term)..But hey don't get me wrong..jump in and make the best of it as waiting for a dip with these exponental up trending stocks could be terribly unrewarding and equally terrible to your investing confidence.....

Which leads me to Confidence...if you are not a confident investor then dreams of being a very successful investor is just that...a dream..

[Jay]

Thanks everyone
Yes I know about the waiting for a dip FPH nearly a classic example
My first thought were THL with AIA as last
I also think that Tourism is here to stay for a while longer so could well be the one

[Entrep]

THL seems to regullarly pull back to the 30MA. If you didn't want to buy today, you could wait for that. Although bear in mind Hoops comments above of course.

PS: this forum needs a like button so we can show appreciation for posts without having to type it and clog up the forums with more messages.

[hardt]

THL seems to regullarly pull back to the 30MA. If you didn't want to buy today, you could wait for that. Although bear in mind Hoops comments above of course.

PS: this forum needs a like button so we can show appreciation for posts without having to type it and clog up the forums with more messages.

What about this thing

91049103

[Beagle]

THL stand out value compared to the others on a forward PE and growth basis in my opinion.
Disc: Hold THL and none of the others mentioned i.e. money is where my mouth is.

[Jay]

What about this thing

91049103
Have to spread the reputation around, seemed to have spread enough to Mr Hoop at present according to this site, as much as I would like to spread some more good reputation on his last post, I can't!

[Jay]

OK OK I get the hint THL is the one to go for:), was leaning that way myself

[Lewylewylewy]

THL/FPH gets my vote.

I'd probably buy FPH, because I feel that they have a better moat. But who knows what will happen in future.

[Jay]

Yes triple lewy, but not easy to buy and set up with x number or so campervans etc either I would of thought.
Would take time to get a good share.
Then there are the other add ons they have
Would a competitor buy 2nd hand or new from overseas or buy new from THL - win win????

[peat]

Super long term with funds in trust for someone else (so reflecting utmost duty of care) I would go MFT.

[Justin]

thl the best:t_up:

[Jay]

Very helpful Justin:)
MFT peat would be my other option after further thought

[peat]

9108

I interpret this chart of THL vs MFT as showing that MFT is a far superior investment over this duration and indeed most subdurations
Not only has MFT's price escalated fourteen times from 1.75 - 24.5 , compared to THL's mere doubling (just over), but you can readily see the volatility has been a lot lower
So it seems to me that risk adjusted return is infinitely superior.
Also MFT rates high in CSR
NB I've taken this chart at face value without considering possible aberrations e.g. splits issues.

[Justin]

Thl's pe 17.54 vs Mft's pe 24.25 today :cool:

[percy]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.
Both have increased by just about the same amount over the past year.Around 42% according to google and Yahoo,so we must concentrate of future growth and dividend yield.
Again thank you www.4-traders.com.
..Dividend yields.................2017..............2018..... .........2019...............2020.
MFT...................................02%......... ......1.92%.....;;...2.15%.............2.44%....av erage1.6325%THL................................... .............04%.................5.41%..........6. 12%.............6.84%.average 4.60%
Clear winner THL.
So EPS /Growth...............................2017....growt h....2018..growth...2019.growth..2020
MFT............................................... .101.......12.8%...114....11.4%....127..13.34%.144 ......average eps growth 12.5%
THL............................................... .24.6......26.8%.....31.2..12.5%....35.1...9.1%... 38.3....average eps growth 16.34%
So againTHL is the clear winner.

[Justin]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

[percy]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.

I will leave Peat to answer that one....lol.

[peat]

Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.
Dividends are irrelevant.

[peat]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.
Both have increased by just about the same amount over the past year.Around 42% according to google and Yahoo,so we must concentrate of future growth and dividend yield.
Again thank you www.4-traders.com (http://www.4-traders.com).
..Dividend yields.................2017..............2018..... .........2019...............2020.
MFT...................................02%......... ......1.92%.....;;...2.15%.............2.44%....av erage1.6325%THL................................... .............04%.................5.41%..........6. 12%.............6.84%.average 4.60%
Clear winner THL.
So EPS /Growth...............................2017....growt h....2018..growth...2019.growth..2020
MFT............................................... .101.......12.8%...114....11.4%....127..13.34%.144 ......average eps growth 12.5%
THL............................................... .24.6......26.8%.....31.2..12.5%....35.1...9.1%... 38.3....average eps growth 16.34%
So againTHL is the clear winner.

Hey Percy
Agree that THL has done the same over the last year but its just taken a big leap in size , in debt, and if that plays out well then sure it might grow faster than MFT over the next few years. But its volatility history, i.e. its identifiable and quantifiable risk is a lot higher. therefore risk adjusted return is lower. I seem to recall a while back it screwed up quite badly ?? whats the chance that at some time THL flounders again ?? a lot more than MFT is my answer.

If I had to set and forget MFT every time. If you want to flick in and out then maybe some higher returns in the near term via THL.

Dont get me wrong THL is good now and I've put some people into it recently

Actually re-reading the OP says 2 years time frame which is a bit silly actually for shares but yes for two years THL probably do better than MFT.

[LAC]

Dividends are irrelevant.

Businesses which pay less in divies should have better growth rates because they keep more of the $ to invest in themselves (acquisitions etc.) so i would say it is relevant if EPS growth isnt there.....

[Hoop]

Interesting comparing the two.
I have reached a very different conclusion.........
Clear winner THL.
So againTHL is the clear winner..

Your winners haven't raced yet..This rosy future is not guaranteed..THL is a cyclical Company and growth may not be sustained during an economic downturn..a true cyclical waxes and wanes.. grows and shrinks..It is very hard to determine whether THL is in fact experiencing real positive growth (grows more than it shrinks) more than MFT over an extended time....As Peat pointed out the beta co-efficient for THL is a lot higher than MFT..This makes THL a darling exponential money maker when the economy booms and a portfolio killer when the tide turns and THL does some shrinking..a typical cyclical stock which should never be included as a buy & hold in a very long term (superanuation type) portfolio..

MFT is also affected by economic conditions but over the many years (including recessionary times) it has had growth....It's been a constant performer..


Thl's pe 17.54 vs Mft's pe 24.25 today :cool:


Cyclicals grow and shrink so their PE is always lower than the NZ index average.. so THL is loooking a tad high (overvalued)....MFT is a growth stock so their PE will always be higher than the average,,until they stop growing..


Why mtf's dividend so lower than average only 1.67% compare to thl 4.44% annual.


Dividends are irrelevant.

Growth stocks usually have either no dividend or low yielding dividends...much of the profits reinvest into the growth story...Constant shareprice increase takes care of the non-dividend..(and no tax).
Cyclical stocks during boom times pay out very high yielding dividends which again makes THL look a bit lousy at the moment.....eh...and cyclicals also often pay high yielding dividends during bad times sadly with a much reduced payout with a much reduced shareprice.

[percy]

Hey Percy
Agree that THL has done the same over the last year but its just taken a big leap in size , in debt, and if that plays out well then sure it might grow faster than MFT over the next few years. But its volatility history, i.e. its identifiable and quantifiable risk is a lot higher. therefore risk adjusted return is lower. I seem to recall a while back it screwed up quite badly ?? whats the chance that at some time THL flounders again ?? a lot more than MFT is my answer.

If I had to set and forget MFT every time. If you want to flick in and out then maybe some higher returns in the near term via THL.

Dont get me wrong THL is good now and I've put some people into it recently

Actually re-reading the OP says 2 years time frame which is a bit silly actually for shares but yes for two years THL probably do better than MFT.

THL was a disaster of a business.The difference would seem to be down to the arrival of Rob Campbell as chairman.The business now is well run,focussed in a rapidly growing sector.The future looks exciting,as more retirees have the time and the money to travel.Lower airfares has also made it possible for young people to travel.l
MFT.They made huge errors of judgement,Australia , Win Bossam,and The Warehouse's logistics.Don Baird would be about the best presenter I have ever heard.It is now a fantastic business,and growth will be driven by hard work,in a challenging sector.
However, taking into account a lower PE, and higher eps growth and dividends, THL would appear to be a better long term investment to me,and being in a stronger growth sector,the tail winds will be more profitable than MFT's headwinds.

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

[ace5715]

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

Totally agree about the Mainfreight book, Ready Fire Aim, just finished reading it and is a great read and highly recommend it to anyone who hasn't read it.

[arc]

Personally I see an "approaching/emerging time" where the importance of the Minafreights and Postal type services will be even larger than they are today due to the 'Online shopping" experience... someone still has to deliver the end product.

The potential impact from Amazon will be larger and more diverse than some here presently tend to think, have a read up on their foray into the 'Fresh Foods" market in USA

Actually makes me thankful this is a smal country that already has good quality food in the supermarkets. Im astounded by the difference in what you can eat is dependent on your wallet size attitude of the american market...

[Justin]

i believe the thl has better growth rates as well, they need money to invest as well, and why still pay high dividend than mft, anyone can specify the project(acquisitions etc.)the mft investing now compare to the thl? Thanks.

[percy]

Personally I see an "approaching/emerging time" where the importance of the Minafreights and Postal type services will be even larger than they are today due to the 'Online shopping" experience... someone still has to deliver the end product.

The potential impact from Amazon will be larger and more diverse than some here presently tend to think, have a read up on their foray into the 'Fresh Foods" market in USA

Actually makes me thankful this is a smal country that already has good quality food in the supermarkets. Im astounded by the difference in what you can eat is dependent on your wallet size attitude of the american market...

I think the listed company that is benefitting from delivering on line purchases is FRE not MFT.
FRE also have their own aircraft that fly up and down the country at night time.
MFT do not own any planes.

[arc]

I think the listed company that is benefitting from delivering on line purchases is FRE not MFT.
FRE also have their own aircraft that fly up and down the country at night time.
MFT do not own any planes.

Percy Im wondering if Amazon will perform a buy-in for/with any of the existing freight forwarding companies, or just establish its own version ?, there is a lot of tech talk of Air-Drones for small sized/lower weight parcels.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/23/technology/amazon-drone-beehives/index.html

[percy]

Percy Im wondering if Amazon will perform a buy-in for/with any of the existing freight forwarding companies, or just establish its own version ?, there is a lot of tech talk of Air-Drones for small sized/lower weight parcels.

Sorry I have no idea,although I would point out FRE have a very clever operation.
NZ Post also has planes.
It would appear FRE's operation is the superior.

[Jay]

Doing well out of my FRE, thanks percy ,who originally pointed them out and so bit of research I did and bought

[Benny1]

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the tip about the book Percy, I have just ordered it from the Library!

Have owned small parcel of THL for the last couple couple years, and kick myself every time I see the price that I didn't buy more back then!
I do love the way the company has been performing over the last few years...

Have looked at MFT and FRE, but have yet to take the plunge, other things keep coming up such as OCA....

If only I could find that elusive truck load of cash...then I really could go to town...:t_up:

[percy]

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

Thanks for the tip about the book Percy, I have just ordered it from the Library!

Have owned small parcel of THL for the last couple couple years, and kick myself every time I see the price that I didn't buy more back then!
I do love the way the company has been performing over the last few years...

Have looked at MFT and FRE, but have yet to take the plunge, other things keep coming up such as OCA....

If only I could find that elusive truck load of cash...then I really could go to town...:t_up:[/QUOTE]

It is always fun trying to work out which is the best company to invest in ,FRE,MFT or THL.Just such great companies.
I think we learn a great deal from reading books, such as the one on Mainfreight.I learnt a lot from Alan Gibbs' book too, which included a section on FRE.
Each business faced up to hardships,challenges and disappointments,often fighting to survive.No easy street for any of them.
Don't worry about that truck load of cash,just invest what you can wisely.

ps I didn't buy enough THL either,so brought some ATL on the Aussie market.
Now I am "well positioned."..lol.

[Justin]

Bought the book from trademe as well:)

[kiora]

Interesting thread to hear other views.So seems like I'm one of the few that would choose FPH. Because bigger MOAT,more investment in research & development,patents(looks highly likely to succeed in its challengers),low debt and decreasing.The quiet achiever,management keeps on achieving.It was good buying back at around $9 less than one year ago.The bluest of blue chips.
BUT as posters say always overvalued.SP will likely take a hit in any down turn but has a high probability of bouncing back sooner rather than latter in the long term.

[percy]

FPH is a great company.The current PE ratio is under 40 being 39.97....So you are paying nearly 40 years earnings today,and yet the dividend yield at 1.63% leaves nothing left over once you have paid for the Xmas Turkey.
So with thanks to www.traders.com let's compare.
.............................2017................. .....2018...................2019..............2020
FPH eps..................29.5........................3 3......................39..................45.9
FPH eps growth......................11.8%................. .18.2%.................17.6%................averag e growth rate 15.8%
THL eps...................24.6........................ 31.2....................35.1................38.3
THL eps growth.......................26.8%................ ....12.5%................9.1%.................aver age growth rate 16.1%
THL's PE ratio is 17.81 while their dividend yield is 4.38%/
FPH's PE ratio is 39.97 while their dividend yield is 1.63%
THL's market cap is $549,563,262
FPH's market cap is $6,807,577,762
So FPH is 12 times larger than THL's.
I do have concerns over the huge cost of litigation ,which is on going for FPH,and have found smaller companies usually grow more quickly than large companies.
I did sell my FPH shares as their PE ratio was over twice their growth rate.You will note their PE ratio is currently 2.5 times their eps growth rate,while THL's PE is only 1.1 times their growth rate.Should you take into account THL's much higher dividend yield .I think THL is the better investment.

[voltage]

percy, I like your simple and effective analysis of these 2 stocks. Is the relationship between PE and growth rate the best indicator of whether a stock is a buy? Are there sites with all this data?

[percy]

Google Jim Slater Zulu Principle.

It explains eps growth compared to PE and PEG which is PE divided by growth.And yes I use it all the time.Simple, and effective.
Basically if the PE is lower than the growth rate you are safe.
In NZ because a lot of companies pay high dividends you need to alter the PEG ratio to PEGD which is PE divided by growth plus dividend.
www.4-traders.com have the eps figures amongst a lot of very interesting ratios.
The eps growth you work out yourself.ie eps 1o cents 2016 and 15 cents 2017 you can see its eps growth of 50%.

[kiora]

BUT EPS growth inc for FPH,dec for THL,the average doesn't explain the full story
THL in the past inc EPS by acquisition which carries its own risk of execution and increasing debt. FPH increasing EPS through innovation.
FPH a share if you own should 'never' be sold
If don't own always too expensive.Healthcare industry should always be rated lower risk than tourism industry

[Justin]

BUT EPS growth inc for FPH,dec for THL,the average doesn't explain the full story
THL in the past inc EPS by acquisition which carries its own risk of execution and increasing debt. FPH increasing EPS through innovation.
FPH a share if you own should 'never' be sold
If don't own always too expensive.Healthcare industry should always be rated lower risk than tourism industry

hi kiora, why fph' share price dropped so sharply last year, thanks

[RupertBear]

BUT EPS growth inc for FPH,dec for THL,the average doesn't explain the full story
THL in the past inc EPS by acquisition which carries its own risk of execution and increasing debt. FPH increasing EPS through innovation.
FPH a share if you own should 'never' be sold
If don't own always too expensive.Healthcare industry should always be rated lower risk than tourism industry

Totally agree with you that FPH is a good long term HOLD. The second biggest mistake I have made was selling my FPH and watching them go up and up. I ended up buying them back at a higher price DUH! ( First biggest mistake was owning Wynyard shares! ). I will definitely be buying more on any dip.

[iceman]

RB. I think most people agree FPH is a great long never ending hold. But don't kick yourself for having sold out and done something else along the way. Its an important part of investing

[kiora]

hi Justin
B/c Resmid litigation BUT FPH have come out the winners so far.Shows the value of their intellectual property & patents.

[Scooter]

returns since the first post 24 August
Code 24/8 price 4/9 price return
AIA $6.86 $6.66 -0.20 or -2.9%
FPH $11.68 $12.00 +0.32 or +2.7%
MFT $24.65 $24.74 +0.09 or +0.3%
THL $4.63 $4.57 -0.06 or -1.3%

[Justin]

hi Justin
B/c Resmid litigation BUT FPH have come out the winners so far.Shows the value of their intellectual property & patents.
Thanks Kiora, that's the really good entry point which I missed :(

[percy]

hi Justin
B/c Resmid litigation BUT FPH have come out the winners so far.Shows the value of their intellectual property & patents.

This will be ongoing for years, and will cost both parties millions upon millions.

[kiora]

Thats what happens when there is IP that has real value

[MauroNZ]

ps.The book on the history of Mainfreight is a fantastic book to read.

Thanks for the recommendation, I had a lot of fun reading it and also a good learning.

[MauroNZ]

.

Your winners haven't raced yet..This rosy future is not guaranteed..THL is a cyclical Company and growth may not be sustained during an economic downturn..a true cyclical waxes and wanes.. grows and shrinks..It is very hard to determine whether THL is in fact experiencing real positive growth (grows more than it shrinks) more than MFT over an extended time....As Peat pointed out the beta co-efficient for THL is a lot higher than MFT..This makes THL a darling exponential money maker when the economy booms and a portfolio killer when the tide turns and THL does some shrinking..a typical cyclical stock which should never be included as a buy & hold in a very long term (superanuation type) portfolio..

MFT is also affected by economic conditions but over the many years (including recessionary times) it has had growth....It's been a constant performer..




Cyclicals grow and shrink so their PE is always lower than the NZ index average.. so THL is loooking a tad high (overvalued)....MFT is a growth stock so their PE will always be higher than the average,,until they stop growing..





Growth stocks usually have either no dividend or low yielding dividends...much of the profits reinvest into the growth story...Constant shareprice increase takes care of the non-dividend..(and no tax).
Cyclical stocks during boom times pay out very high yielding dividends which again makes THL look a bit lousy at the moment.....eh...and cyclicals also often pay high yielding dividends during bad times sadly with a much reduced payout with a much reduced shareprice.


Hoop, thanks for the explanation it helps a lot. Now, after reading Peter Lynch book "One up on Wall Street" and he mentions there cyclicals and growth companies. However I'm still trying to learn how to distinguish one of the other, so in your opinion is there any other book that would help in that regard?.

Thanks.

[Oliver Mander]

.

Your winners haven't raced yet..This rosy future is not guaranteed..THL is a cyclical Company and growth may not be sustained during an economic downturn..a true cyclical waxes and wanes.. grows and shrinks..It is very hard to determine whether THL is in fact experiencing real positive growth (grows more than it shrinks) more than MFT over an extended time....As Peat pointed out the beta co-efficient for THL is a lot higher than MFT..This makes THL a darling exponential money maker when the economy booms and a portfolio killer when the tide turns and THL does some shrinking..a typical cyclical stock which should never be included as a buy & hold in a very long term (superanuation type) portfolio..

MFT is also affected by economic conditions but over the many years (including recessionary times) it has had growth....It's been a constant performer..




Cyclicals grow and shrink so their PE is always lower than the NZ index average.. so THL is loooking a tad high (overvalued)....MFT is a growth stock so their PE will always be higher than the average,,until they stop growing..





Growth stocks usually have either no dividend or low yielding dividends...much of the profits reinvest into the growth story...Constant shareprice increase takes care of the non-dividend..(and no tax).
Cyclical stocks during boom times pay out very high yielding dividends which again makes THL look a bit lousy at the moment.....eh...and cyclicals also often pay high yielding dividends during bad times sadly with a much reduced payout with a much reduced shareprice.


Quick comment to add some context hoop - in BOTH cases, on a 12 month beta (admittedly relatively short term), the beta is below 1 (around 0.5 for THL, 0.4 for MFT). That would put BOTH stocks into the category of 'non-cyclical' / defensive type stocks. So while your theory is correct, I'm not sure its borne out by the data. Difficult to use a 5 year beta on THL, as the company has changed out of sight over that timeframe.

Also - I would consider BOTH companies growth stocks on the basis of their past performance and future forecasts.

To me, they sit in the 'goldilocks' zone - proven performance, solid growth and non-volatility relative to market. PE's of 16 (THL) and 21 (MFT) are not overly high to pay for Goldilocks...so maybe even some buying to do here still.

Disc: Hold both! (and not letting them go...)

[hardt]

returns since the first post 24 August
Code 24/8 price 4/9 price return
AIA $6.86 $6.66 -0.20 or -2.9%
FPH $11.68 $12.00 +0.32 or +2.7%
MFT $24.65 $24.74 +0.09 or +0.3%
THL $4.63 $4.57 -0.06 or -1.3%



24-Aug
6-Oct
SP Change
Dividend
TOTAL RETURN


AIA
686
625
-8.89%
10.5
-7.36%


FPH
1168
1262
8.05%
0
8.05%


MFT
2465
2503
1.54%
0
1.54%


THL
463
492
6.26%
11
8.64%