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Peitro
12-09-2017, 06:23 AM
I didn't expect this, as I am not one to trust the polls. However, an efficient market is an accurate indicator:

Centrebet odds
Labour $1.68
National $2.10

This has really got me considering investment tactics over the next month(years).

The most prudent approach to remain well positioned could be to sell off some assets. Then hedge my position by putting the proceeds on Labour taking the win. :scared:

blackcap
12-09-2017, 06:27 AM
I didn't expect this, as I am not one to trust the polls. However, an efficient market is an accurate indicator:

Centrebet odds
Labour $1.68
National $2.10

This has really got me considering investment tactics over the next month(years).

The most prudent approach to remain well positioned could be to sell off some assets. Then hedge my position by putting the proceeds on Labour taking the win. :scared:

Interesting, betfair have had a market up for a while and now Labour are odds on to be in power come 23 September. The are now also favoured to get the most seats. Thanks to alerting me to Centrebet.... I do have an account there, so shall go and have a week peek.

craic
13-09-2017, 08:19 AM
Centrebet are now offering $1.85 for Labour and $1.90 for National. Their numbers should be based on the bets they have received.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:38 PM
Reckon they are more accurate then the polls craic.

blackcap
14-09-2017, 06:46 AM
Reckon they are more accurate then the polls craic.

They generally are more accurate than the polls. However they too get them wrong. On the day of the US election, Hillary was a 1.20 favourite and Trump was at 6.00. On the eve of Brexit, Remain was at 1.10 and Leave at 11.00. So they can get it very very wrong.
But studies at Masters level have been done as to the veracity of odds etc and they are better at predicting the outcome than polls in the whole.
fivethirtyeight.com write a whole heap on odds and polling. Interesting site.

craic
14-09-2017, 03:13 PM
Odds on TAB and other similar sites have little to do with accurate predictions - they are simple equations designed to give the firm a profit margin regardless of the outcome. They reflect the expectations of the punters. In our case, a belief among punters that Labour were storming ahead and would easily win has altered to the present situation where punters are unsure so the odds become even. If you want to make money, look for a local hero against impossible odds. You will always get a good price on the other fellow here. An example that made me money was when David Tua? fought for the world title. But you need to bet in hundreds to make it worthwhile.

elZorro
14-09-2017, 05:47 PM
Odds on TAB and other similar sites have little to do with accurate predictions - they are simple equations designed to give the firm a profit margin regardless of the outcome. They reflect the expectations of the punters. In our case, a belief among punters that Labour were storming ahead and would easily win has altered to the present situation where punters are unsure so the odds become even. If you want to make money, look for a local hero against impossible odds. You will always get a good price on the other fellow here. An example that made me money was when David Tua? fought for the world title. But you need to bet in hundreds to make it worthwhile.

How are you going there Craic? Hope you're not too disappointed with the latest poll :)

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 05:50 PM
Yes int to know the latest odds,craic, blackcap?.

blackcap
14-09-2017, 06:13 PM
Yes int to know the latest odds,craic, blackcap?.

Still the same on Centrebet. Pretty much the same on Betfair, slight move toward Labour from what I can see.

ratkin
14-09-2017, 06:22 PM
The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large overrounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 06:24 PM
How are you going there Craic? Hope you're not too disappointed with the latest poll :)

Robertson knows they want CGT on real estate, but says he doesn't know about businesses because they will wait for the report after the election.
Here it goes for you Grant. Years ago when real estate transactions were subject to stamp duties, the trick for investors was to set up a company to buy a property = and sell the company which was cheaper. And if R.E. is subject to CGT buisinesses and shares will need to be too, to avoid people trading companies - so Grant, don't try and tell us you do not know about CGT on businesses.

blackcap
14-09-2017, 06:27 PM
The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large errounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway

Correct, I can only get $100 on (well am allowed to win $100) and CB have limited my account. The Betfair site is getting more liquidity on this market the last few days, a week ago there was really rats and mice but now some larger (still not large) amounts appearing.
Ratkin you are right about CB, they may only have taken $500 or so on this market so I think the odds are just a reflection of what they think the market should be rather than weight of money at this stage....

winner69
14-09-2017, 06:34 PM
The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large overrounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway

Yep 6.25% to Centrebet

They say roll on up ...bet big please

ratkin
14-09-2017, 06:50 PM
Correct, I can only get $100 on (well am allowed to win $100) and CB have limited my account. The Betfair site is getting more liquidity on this market the last few days, a week ago there was really rats and mice but now some larger (still not large) amounts appearing.
Ratkin you are right about CB, they may only have taken $500 or so on this market so I think the odds are just a reflection of what they think the market should be rather than weight of money at this stage....

Much of the money on betfair will just be small time traders trying to pinch a few quid backing both sides. Unlikely to turn into a big betting event, but you never know. Online bookies are terrible, they are very quick to restrict any accounts that they see no profit in, and are just chasing the problem gamblers and casuals with more money than sense.

Even Betfair are robbers these days. have been having to pay 20% premium charge since around 2010 and when they stuck it up to 60 I pretty much gave up trading. Back around 2000-2010 it was a real betting revolution, before Black sold out. Was a License to print money in the early days, like having a money tree in the garden

blackcap
15-09-2017, 08:27 AM
Even Betfair are robbers these days. have been having to pay 20% premium charge since around 2010 and when they stuck it up to 60 I pretty much gave up trading. Back around 2000-2010 it was a real betting revolution, before Black sold out. Was a License to print money in the early days, like having a money tree in the garden

You are right there, it certainly was. I was making enough to live on and more. These days have limited what I do there and pay the premium charge albeit the 20% one. Still go there for certain events that are worthwhile. They have really decimated their own model though and a lack of liquidity is starting to show. It was good while it lasted. 2005-2007 would have been "peak BF" for me and since then the decline has been evident.

ratkin
15-09-2017, 03:59 PM
You are right there, it certainly was. I was making enough to live on and more. These days have limited what I do there and pay the premium charge albeit the 20% one. Still go there for certain events that are worthwhile. They have really decimated their own model though and a lack of liquidity is starting to show. It was good while it lasted. 2005-2007 would have been "peak BF" for me and since then the decline has been evident.

Back in the early years I would be up most of the night trading UK horse racing, then moved to cricket/tennis and Rugby trading. Around those years you gave, it was possible to make thousands on single events without even much skill, just a fast feed, the exchange rate was better then too. There was little risk involved other than losing connection when a big trade was open. I used to keep it very quiet as hardly any New Zealanders seemed to know about it, and taking money off UK players on NZ events was just so easy with about 7 seconds time advantage over the feeds they were seeing. Couldnt lose
Now all the easy money is gone and it shark versus shark, the other problem was when everyone had internet connected cellphones a fast feed was no longer enough as every man and his dog was at the grounds doing it


Like you I can no longer be bothered with much except the occasional nz event like test rugby and cricket, but even that not what it was. Made enough money from it during the good years to not have to bother now. It was a pain having to spend all day with a finger hovering ober the mouse button waiting for a wicket to fall, took lots of dedication, these days it not worth the trouble.

Rep
18-09-2017, 09:29 PM
Robertson knows they want CGT on real estate, but says he doesn't know about businesses because they will wait for the report after the election.
Here it goes for you Grant. Years ago when real estate transactions were subject to stamp duties, the trick for investors was to set up a company to buy a property = and sell the company which was cheaper. And if R.E. is subject to CGT buisinesses and shares will need to be too, to avoid people trading companies - so Grant, don't try and tell us you do not know about CGT on businesses.

And if the Greens are to be believed they will raise the top tax rate to 40% for those over $150k, raise the trust rate to match it and leave the corporate tax rate as it is but will implement a CGT now.

Of course, their model assumes no one will do the economically rational thing and legally avoid the taxes and that purchase and sale of investment property will change volumes (interesting that on one hand they want to curb speculation and on the other bank that it won't change behaviour).

A 12 point rate spread is significant. I only have to see the IRDs published data to see that there have been a statistical anomaly of taxpayers who sit just beneath the cusp of the top tier and that moves with every change to the eligibility of the top tier... if that's not evidence of avoidance being widespread then someone needs to head to Specsavers.

Small tax differentials between tiers tends to see less incentives to be bothered with avoidance. And encouraging the well off with such a big points spread is like putting out a fire with a bottle of meths... it generally won't work and could blow up in your hands!

blackcap
19-09-2017, 06:42 AM
Back in the early years I would be up most of the night trading UK horse racing, then moved to cricket/tennis and Rugby trading. Around those years you gave, it was possible to make thousands on single events without even much skill, just a fast feed, the exchange rate was better then too. There was little risk involved other than losing connection when a big trade was open. I used to keep it very quiet as hardly any New Zealanders seemed to know about it, and taking money off UK players on NZ events was just so easy with about 7 seconds time advantage over the feeds they were seeing. Couldnt lose
Now all the easy money is gone and it shark versus shark, the other problem was when everyone had internet connected cellphones a fast feed was no longer enough as every man and his dog was at the grounds doing it


Like you I can no longer be bothered with much except the occasional nz event like test rugby and cricket, but even that not what it was. Made enough money from it during the good years to not have to bother now. It was a pain having to spend all day with a finger hovering ober the mouse button waiting for a wicket to fall, took lots of dedication, these days it not worth the trouble.

I can find myself in this. I think you and I probably worked in parallel in NZ without knowing it. The waiting for a wicket to fall was excruciating. Yes the 7 second delay helped and then I would listen to analogue radio for the quickest feed. Made thousands doing this myself. The rugby (super variety) was a huge cash cow for me too but the cricket was my bread and butter. Funny you kept it on the down low in NZ, I did exactly the same thing. Anecdotally I once hoovered up about $3000 on the fall of the 9th wicket in a test match on the runs line market. That is how crazy it was. Now you are right, its shark v shark and sometimes I wonder if there are others out there with quicker pics ect.

So now its become more of a hobby and I trade on select events. In the tennis (the grand slams only) I find I can make a good $4k or more so its worth trading and I love the game which helps. For the rest the long nights and sore shoulders hands are no longer what is important in life.

As far as the election goes, I see that the odds have remained static and Labour are the slight favourite. Saturday will tell.

ari
20-09-2017, 11:58 AM
My only foray into online betting (Centrebet) was election 2005. I was convinced that the Nat's would shoe-in, so much so that I doubled my bet. Friday evening I get a call from credit card checking on 2 large debits as they thought there may have been an error. Thank god I answered the phone, cover would have been blown if wife had taken call. Sat evening feeling confident, ready to tell wifey of my rather large windfall......a n d the Sth Auckland votes start comin in......and that is why I have not placed a bet since!

minimoke
20-09-2017, 12:25 PM
My only foray into online betting (Centrebet) was election 2005. I was convinced that the Nat's would shoe-in, so much so that I doubled my bet. Friday evening I get a call from credit card checking on 2 large debits as they thought there may have been an error. Thank god I answered the phone, cover would have been blown if wife had taken call. Sat evening feeling confident, ready to tell wifey of my rather large windfall......a n d the Sth Auckland votes start comin in......and thats when the fight started.

Mine asked me the other day if I knew any good feminist literature.

I said Nadia Lims "What's for Dinner" and....

fungus pudding
20-09-2017, 01:21 PM
thats when the fight started.

Mine asked me the other day if I knew any good feminist literature.

I said Nadia Lims "What's for Dinner" and....

If she didn't like that, Anabelle Langbein's got a few books as well.

blackcap
20-09-2017, 05:07 PM
National are now the favourites by quite a bit to have the most seats but also to provide the PM.

betfair.com

King1212
20-09-2017, 05:20 PM
Just out...national ahead..breaking news....

National at 46%

Baa_Baa
20-09-2017, 05:51 PM
Just out...national ahead..breaking news....

National at 46%

That Colmar Brunton Poll has only 1000 voters surveyed, is that even a statistically acceptable sample size?

The Stuff Poll by contrast has 101,000 people registering their party vote, currently 44% National in the lead. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11083-Stuff-Poll-what-party-are-you-going-to-vote-for&p=684734#post684734

Anywho, that Stuff poll is only two clicks lower that the Colmar Brunton Poll. 44% to 46%.

Looking good for National 3 days out from the election.

Will be interesting also that with so many early votes, when the RNZ team go live on TV Saturday night analysing the early data and the returns from Election day.

777
20-09-2017, 06:00 PM
Heard on the radio this morning that the early votes won't be counted until after Saturday.

Joshuatree
20-09-2017, 06:12 PM
An election like no other, swinging times. Hoping for one more surprise;)

jonu
20-09-2017, 06:30 PM
An election like no other, swinging times. Hoping for one more surprise;)

Another "Captain's Call" reversal perhaps. Maybe another change of leader. The last one brought a surge that lasted...weeks.

Joshuatree
20-09-2017, 07:11 PM
The one thing that stood out to me was Bill maintaining the lie about a deficit hole. This is classic trump tactics , keep repeating something and never back down no matter that it is totally fake. Who would want such a person to lead our country ? It beggars belief? If people were honest about their own morals and ethics he would have about 10,000 voters imo ;thats how many are incarcerated.

jonu
20-09-2017, 07:28 PM
The one thing that stood out to me was Bill maintaining the lie about a deficit hole. This is classic trump tactics , keep repeating something and never back down no matter that it is totally fake. Who would want such a person to lead our country ? It beggars belief? If people were honest about their own morals and ethics he would have about 10,000 voters imo ;thats how many are incarcerated.

JT, you're starting to froth again mate. Despite what you would like to be the case, according to the poll considerably more people want Bill as PM as well. Does that make them all crims? Or maybe they just happen to have a differnt view of the world than you.

Joshuatree
20-09-2017, 07:42 PM
People haven't considered the ethics atp; i really hope thats the case.Hows your ethics , steady?

Baa_Baa
20-09-2017, 08:06 PM
People haven't considered the ethics atp; i really hope thats the case.Hows your ethics , steady?

You called me "ruthless", now that's an intriguing insight I hadn't thought about much and really I don't care much to think about just because you said it.

And you also said that I should join Labour, inferring to share my ruthless insights? I gave that even less thought, in fact no thought actually. It's a waste of my, your and everyones time. A pointless worthless hypothesis based on your naive assessment of politics, government, forming government and the way politicians influence voters.

Josh, it's an election. Politics is ... gain power, retain power. Just two simple things (simple to say, hard to do). If you think you can confuse that with uppty virtuous words like morals, ethics, honesty, truth .. etc, you've completely missed the point. It's about winning. Both party's (the majors especially) do whatever they think necessary to WIN. One will, the other won't.

Saturday, the voters are in control. All will be revealed. The party and the Leader who has the greatest influence on the populace who vote will secure the right to form a government. But only the right. It is not certain even after an election that the 'winning' party will be able to form a government, as no leading party has the numbers (currently) to form a government on their own.

Take it step by step, don't presume who will win or not, or which party wins the moral high ground or not, as it is all meaningless blather that will be swept away by the election, when the people speak their voice by voting.

Joshuatree
20-09-2017, 09:11 PM
Its an election for sure. Trouble is we will never know when Bill is lying or when he is telling the truth now.Trump down under.What happened to honest bill, who cares, right, tui. Heres hoping truth and ethics and values get through.

jmsnz
20-09-2017, 09:22 PM
Its an election for sure. Trouble is we will never know when Bill is lying or when he is telling the truth now.Trump down under.What happened to honest bill, who cares, right, tui. Heres hoping truth and ethics and values get through.
That does seem to assume that all the others are telling the truth. I doubt that will be the case to be honest.

Joshuatree
20-09-2017, 09:27 PM
Show me some examples of negativity, smearing and lying, be honest.

jmsnz
21-09-2017, 06:35 AM
Show me some examples of negativity, smearing and lying, be honest.
I think that I would put this claim in that basket - http://www.labour.org.nz/at_least_15_new_taxes_under_national

But that isn't actually what I said was it though. You can be 'relentlessly positive' but still lying and/or sending messages that you can not possibly achieve. All parties make some claims that I doubt they can achieve, it isn't unique to the Blue team as your posts seem to imply. For example I see the Red team are going to legislate to make all rentals 'warm and dry'. Do you think that they can actually make that happen?

blackcap
21-09-2017, 06:44 AM
Hey hey people, this is the post for Election odds!! There are 2 other posts where you can argue about Taxinda or merits of Blue having another term. Just a quick update on the odds, Nats are now red hot favourites at 1.45 and Labour at 3.20 to get the most seats in parliament.
As to the party that will provide the PM, its a bit closer, Nats are favourite at 1.85 and Labour are 2.20 or thereabouts. Betfair.com

fungus pudding
21-09-2017, 07:36 AM
Hey hey people, this is the post for Election odds!!

That's right. There are other posts for odd elections.

Joshuatree
21-09-2017, 09:26 AM
I think that I would put this claim in that basket - http://www.labour.org.nz/at_least_15_new_taxes_under_national

But that isn't actually what I said was it though. You can be 'relentlessly positive' but still lying and/or sending messages that you can not possibly achieve. All parties make some claims that I doubt they can achieve, it isn't unique to the Blue team as your posts seem to imply. For example I see the Red team are going to legislate to make all rentals 'warm and dry'. Do you think that they can actually make that happen?

15 taxes by national itemised out, correct

Easy to make houses warm and dry yes correct ,with the caveat about the disaster still unfolding ,leaky houses and apartments due to faulty building techniques.

I agree about parties making claims, but you haven't shown me any Jacinda has made that they don't intend to follow through on and complete.

Bill has lied to all of NZ repeatedly and the evidence was on TV1 last nite for all to transparently see.Even Hosking offered him a spade:t_up:. One of his spin doctors must have come from the Trump campaign. Do we like this new norm bill has set.NO.
Whats happened to honest bill?

777
21-09-2017, 09:40 AM
JT take your posts to the correct threads. You have hijacked this thread for you own purposes.

Joshuatree
21-09-2017, 09:53 AM
Happy to If folks on here don't keep posting off topic in the first place.
Anyone have the latest odds?

blackcap
21-09-2017, 10:09 AM
Happy to If folks on here don't keep posting off topic in the first place.
Anyone have the latest odds?

Go to betfair.com and have a look..... it does not cost anything.

But ok then... National to have most seats 1.42, Labour 3.25

Party to supply next PM, National 1.80, Labour 2.25

Joshuatree
21-09-2017, 10:18 AM
Thanks.Wow that is a big change. What about the fact that many votes have already been cast; its not like the odds changing up until a horse race at a set time, but over a few weeks where polls and sentiment keep changing; how do they factor that in with hundreds of thousands of votes already cast?

blackcap
21-09-2017, 10:25 AM
Thanks.Wow that is a big change. What about the fact that many votes have already been cast; its not like the odds changing up until a horse race at a set time, but over a few weeks where polls and sentiment keep changing; how do they factor that in with hundreds of thousands of votes already cast?

JT, its a peer to peer site. People like me put up bids and offers. This is the market in its purest form. I just went against National at 1.42 and someone took my bet. (cleaning up my book) The odds changed violently last night at about 6.01pm after one news had the poll.

minimoke
21-09-2017, 10:28 AM
Thanks.Wow that is a big change. What about the fact that many votes have already been cast; its not like the odds changing up until a horse race at a set time, but over a few weeks where polls and sentiment keep changing; how do they factor that in with hundreds of thousands of votes already cast?
Probably because they know early voting occurs across all electorates and all age ranges. A significant increase in early voting was picked after the 2014 election - so nothing really to get excited about. Though obviously People on Planet JacInta think early voters are only Labour voters - the reality is quite different. Thus early votes wont necessarily affect the odds.

Joshuatree
21-09-2017, 10:35 AM
JT, its a peer to peer site. People like me put up bids and offers. This is the market in its purest form. I just went against National at 1.42 and someone took my bet. (cleaning up my book) The odds changed violently last night at about 6.01pm after one news had the poll.

Thanks for that. Im not a betting person its just all alien to me. cheers JT

tim23
21-09-2017, 05:21 PM
Agree - its very un-Catholic poor form Bill.
The one thing that stood out to me was Bill maintaining the lie about a deficit hole. This is classic trump tactics , keep repeating something and never back down no matter that it is totally fake. Who would want such a person to lead our country ? It beggars belief? If people were honest about their own morals and ethics he would have about 10,000 voters imo ;thats how many are incarcerated.

blackcap
28-09-2017, 06:37 AM
Just an update on the odds for those interested. National have drifted a long way since election night. They have gone from $1.08 to $1.50.

Labour have come in a lot... from $12.00 to about $3.00.

Im sure a lot of this has to do with the media beat ups and maybe some uncertainty as the longer it takes etc....

ElZorro did you get any of the 12's and 10's readily available on Labour on Monday?

fungus pudding
28-09-2017, 08:10 AM
Just an update on the odds for those interested. National have drifted a long way since election night. They have gone from $1.08 to $1.50.

Labour have come in a lot... from $12.00 to about $3.00.

Im sure a lot of this has to do with the media beat ups and maybe some uncertainty as the longer it takes etc....

ElZorro did you get any of the 12's and 10's readily available on Labour on Monday?

Winston has decided to go with Labour. The clue is in his Australian TV interview.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11927201
What he says is so illogical that he's spinning it to align with Jacinda. And relying on voting ignorance to 'justify' his stance. The truth is the opposite of what he claims. The Maori seats are the racist ones - requiring enrolment on the separate Maori roll to vote.
Whereas anyone could vote for the Maori party. Sleazy little devil is Winston.

craic
28-09-2017, 09:17 AM
And the party that goes with him will go down the gurgler with him in three years. The vast majority of NZ voters did not vote for a government run by Winston Peters. Those who did vote him into parliament in a seat, Tauranga and Northland? both found that he didn't deliver and didn't have him back. Maybe Labour will make the same mistake.

fungus pudding
28-09-2017, 10:07 AM
And the party that goes with him will go down the gurgler with him in three years. The vast majority of NZ voters did not vote for a government run by Winston Peters. Those who did vote him into parliament in a seat, Tauranga and Northland? both found that he didn't deliver and didn't have him back. Maybe Labour will make the same mistake.

Don't overlook the seat he won and lost earlier. (Hanua?)