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View Full Version : polls wrong, media coverage disappointing



bullfrog
24-09-2017, 11:49 AM
Great result for National. I'm interested in the spin before voting, few of my thoughts to get the ball rolling:

1. Polls. Didn't the polls have Lab at 44% and Nats at 40%? I wonder if this killed the protest vote for Lab? Not interested in how they got it wrong, it's what effect polls have on the final vote. When polls are this far out, it's more like fake news. Not sure who it helps though.

2. $11bn hole. Every economist (in the media) said there was one but Bill backed his team, and I think that trumped the experts. Certainly the accusations of liar didn't stick, although there were several stories out there that could have been drawn together to knock his trustworthiness - he dodged a bullet there as he doesn't perform well under spontaneous questioning.

3. Media. Media made MMP into a dating game show just to fill the vacuum of their own limited knowledge of the issues. Lazy reporting and a disservice to voters. Next time use a starsign compatibility matrix and Mystic Meg, and don't embarrass yourselves with questions about bottomlines.

4. Media encouraging parties to do deals for seats by saying Lab/Nats still don't understand MMP. Voters do not like to be manipulated, and good on Lab/Nats for not making those deals and taking choice away from electorates.

ratkin
24-09-2017, 03:21 PM
Labour ran a very poor campaign imo. Fell straight into Nationals trap by letting it be all be about tax.
They should have been concentrating their attack against dodgy employment laws, healthcare etc.
They made a token attempt but spend most of the campaign reacting to Nationals attacks rather than
sticking to their strengths.
"Lets do this" became annoying as well. Too much like positive american spin, all style no substance

The greens actually did a better job in the end, despite the shocking start. But then again I suspect labour would not
change much anyway once in power. Would they repeal the 90 day employment bill or tackle zero hour contracts? I
doubt it

iceman
25-09-2017, 07:07 AM
bullfrog I think the polls were actually pretty close and incredibly accurate http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925726

Joshuatree
25-09-2017, 11:33 AM
Is there a spending cap on advertising?.If so does that exclude donations which can be used on advertising and marketing.? National must have spent by far the largest ; with huge numbers of hoardings, TVads and newspaper ads and online ads just everywhere. Using special effects as well.One tv ad showed bill walking and his eye colour had been altered/intensified to an almost glowing green!! Looked evil to me,spooky.

Sad to see my local free weekend community newspaper showing bias towards national in its articles and content , with a full page national ad on the back page as well. I guess they did that all around the country as well with compliant papers.

Noticed my stock broker doing the same with a subtle commentary directing clients to national and at the bottom a pic of a voting box with a hand placing a vote in, the colour of the box ;all blue with a tiny bit of nz flag in it , not orange and whites as in polling stations.

All those things and more could fool the last polls as many voters don't do much party study imo because they just don't have the time and/or so are easily influenced by media. National certainly won in that area handsdown.

Investor
25-09-2017, 08:18 PM
Is there a spending cap on advertising?.If so does that exclude donations which can be used on advertising and marketing.? National must have spent by far the largest ; with huge numbers of hoardings, TVads and newspaper ads and online ads just everywhere. Using special effects as well.One tv ad showed bill walking and his eye colour had been altered/intensified to an almost glowing green!! Looked evil to me,spooky.

Sad to see my local free weekend community newspaper showing bias towards national in its articles and content , with a full page national ad on the back page as well. I guess they did that all around the country as well with compliant papers.

Noticed my stock broker doing the same with a subtle commentary directing clients to national and at the bottom a pic of a voting box with a hand placing a vote in, the colour of the box ;all blue with a tiny bit of nz flag in it , not orange and whites as in polling stations.

All those things and more could fool the last polls as many voters don't do much party study imo because they just don't have the time and/or so are easily influenced by media. National certainly won in that area handsdown.

Welcome back.

hardt
26-09-2017, 03:08 AM
Is there a spending cap on advertising?.If so does that exclude donations which can be used on advertising and marketing.? National must have spent by far the largest ; with huge numbers of hoardings, TVads and newspaper ads and online ads just everywhere. Using special effects as well.One tv ad showed bill walking and his eye colour had been altered/intensified to an almost glowing green!! Looked evil to me,spooky.

Sad to see my local free weekend community newspaper showing bias towards national in its articles and content , with a full page national ad on the back page as well. I guess they did that all around the country as well with compliant papers.

Noticed my stock broker doing the same with a subtle commentary directing clients to national and at the bottom a pic of a voting box with a hand placing a vote in, the colour of the box ;all blue with a tiny bit of nz flag in it , not orange and whites as in polling stations.

All those things and more could fool the last polls as many voters don't do much party study imo because they just don't have the time and/or so are easily influenced by media. National certainly won in that area handsdown.

Sounds like Labour/Green voters are altruistic, well researched, hyper intelligent beings with their minds focused solely on the best policies!

Passion and empathy driven arguments have been triumphing over sound policy since forever...

Let's be brutally honest, 46% of voters didn't vote FOR National, They voted AGAINST a Labour/Greens/NZF coalition they were advise was a probability.

Farmers/Brokers/Environmentalists/Teachers/Unionists/Students/TheUnemployed/Business owners, all want a Government that is going to best serve their self-interests over the next 3 years.

Boiling it down to campaign spending ( which is capped at 1.2m approx. ) is doing a disservice to the majority of New Zealanders who were vividly conscious at the ballot.

Disc: thoroughly dislike National,Labour,Greens and NZF equally.

Investor
26-09-2017, 10:14 AM
Passion and empathy driven arguments have been triumphing over sound policy since forever...

Hence why the left isn't in power.

Joshuatree
26-09-2017, 10:15 AM
"Boiling it down to campaign spending ( which is capped at 1.2m approx. ) is doing a disservice to the majority of New Zealanders who were vividly conscious at the ballot." hardt

I would like to agree with that
But simply it looks like a dead cat

A big lie, repeated trump like,some fake news
Changed the polls almost overnight

Throw some mud ,make some stick like glue
Repetition, really negative and it will bite

Stability(tui) and lies, hand in hand
A simple recipe; and Bills your man.

Investor
26-09-2017, 10:18 AM
"Boiling it down to campaign spending ( which is capped at 1.2m approx. ) is doing a disservice to the majority of New Zealanders who were vividly conscious at the ballot." hardt

I would like to agree with that
But simply it looks like a dead cat

A big lie, repeated trump like,some fake news
Changed the polls almost overnight

Throw some mud ,make some stick like glue
Repetition, really negative and it will bite

Stability(tui) and lies, hand in hand
A simple recipe; and Bills your man.





Have you not realised by now that writing may not be your forte?

iceman
26-09-2017, 11:06 AM
"Boiling it down to campaign spending ( which is capped at 1.2m approx. ) is doing a disservice to the majority of New Zealanders who were vividly conscious at the ballot." hardt

I would like to agree with that
But simply it looks like a dead cat

A big lie, repeated trump like,some fake news
Changed the polls almost overnight

Throw some mud ,make some stick like glue
Repetition, really negative and it will bite

Stability(tui) and lies, hand in hand
A simple recipe; and Bills your man.





The election is over JT. Labour failed to make any dent in National but managed to reshuffle the cards on the left, so well done. Time to move on

Joshuatree
26-09-2017, 11:13 AM
I don't think so , what time zone are you in? A few weeks to go ; I'm not moving anywhere until we have a new parliament then I'm moving on for 3 years.
Where have you moved to?

iceman
26-09-2017, 02:09 PM
Not sure what time zones have to do with it. The election is finished. Time to move on from the silly electioneering comments. We’ve all had our say, now Winston decides

Joshuatree
26-09-2017, 02:13 PM
Can you put that in a poem:)

Hawkeye
26-09-2017, 03:55 PM
The greens would also have a chance to decide if they used their noggins, siding with labour has done nothing but decrease their party size and leave no lasting achievements. Maybe they should look at their own future as well as New Zealands.

bullfrog
26-09-2017, 07:15 PM
bullfrog I think the polls were actually pretty close and incredibly accurate http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925726

Agreed iceman, the last polls were very accurate however, polls a week before were way out, probably a function of all the early voters accurately telling pollsters who they voted for! Not really a poll the day before, more an early vote count!

Saw paddy on tv3 tonight, trying to sell the winston utu against national. Its always personalities over policies with paddy, embarrassing and lightweight. What's Winnie's biggest achievement, the gold card, he'll want his legacy to be the super gold card, and will jump into bed with whoever puts that in his wallet imo.