OCA or MPG

[Beagle]

Happened to notice both these recent listings are trading at exactly the same price this afternoon $1.02.
To the best of my knowledge they're both on pretty similar PE's too with OCA forecasting 8.42 cps so forward PE about 12 and MPG about 10.2 based on 10 cps.

So...one year from now which stock is higher ?

[JeremyALD]

I imagine OCA is in the box seat for increases over the next year and given struggles in construction certainly in the better industry; however MPG could make it back up to $1.70 over the next couple of years with refreshed board, vision and performance.

So money on OCA but don't count out mpg just yet

[Beagle]

I am biased, I own OCA and not MPG so my vote was always going to be a foregone conclusion but nonetheless a bit of lightweight amusement to pass the time while we wait for the never ending election saga to come to some sort of conclusion.

[t.rexjr]

OCA is a growth stock where MPG is not...

[trader_jackson]

OCA or MPG?

There is no comparison... And comparing based off both share prices being close to each other (being $1.0x) is not a good strategy for comparison as I'm sure you know!
MPG listed some 3 years ago (I think?) which I wouldn't call recent, but maybe some others might. They are also in totally different industries with different issues and opportunities etc... but for what it's worth, OCA hands down!

[Beagle]

OCA is a growth stock where MPG is not...

There is a lot of talk of growth in the MPG annual report issued earlier this year but yes I agree that as the year has unfolded its become apparent that it really is just that, "Talk" whereas on the other hand the long term demographic tailwinds in the retirement sector are well known and provided OCA capitalise on them...

[Beagle]

OCA or MPG?
Are you kidding?
There is no comparison... And comparing based off both share prices being close to each other (being $1.0x) is not a good strategy for comparison!

For what it's worth, OCA hands down

It was a slow day.

[hardt]

OCA will have no real trouble meeting their NPAT forecast for FY18...
However once that report drops, it becomes another ticker in a rather low valuation sector of the market.
OCA has a very FY18 centric pipeline, there is little info on the timeline for FY19 construction and sales commencement.

It will not be given a premium to the market... 13-16 times forward earnings seems to be most likely.



Forward Underlying PE

FY18E

FY19E

Notes to FY19









RYM - $9.50

25x

20x

Pipeline heavily focused on FY19 - Huge pipeline indeed



SUM - $5.19

14.5x

12.8x

Steady pipeline



ARV - $1.24

16.3x

13.7x

Pipeline focused on FY19 - Relying on resale's for FY18



OCA - $1.03

14.1x

13.8x

Relying on resale's for FY19 ( developments in planning and construction stages )



MET - $6.00

17x

15.8x

Steady pipeline




As for MPG, the construction sector has been growing revenues very well, albeit with terrible marginal contraction... the construction cycle is not yet over and their may be some hope left.
MPG could return a 20-50% gain by the end of the year with any sign of strength, whereas maximum returns on OCA from current levels would be 20-30%

Unlikely performer, but a higher potential return in MPG for the next 12 months on the market, far less risk with OCA and a more stable outlook.

Voted for OCA

[winner69]

Stupid poll mate

OcA 100% certain to beat MPG

If you had put MVN in it would be a dead heat (with mpg that is)

[couta1]

Stupid poll mate

OcA 100% certain to beat MPG

If you had put MVN in it would be a dead heat (with mpg that is) If the poll had have been about which company has the best management, it would have been interesting, my vote would go to MPG in that case.

[trader_jackson]

If the poll had have been about which company has the best management, it would have been interesting, my vote would go to MPG in that case.

You think the management of MPG is better than OCA?
The number of votes against the chairman (alone) would indicate not too many people think highly of MPG's management
Anyhow lets not turn this solely an MPG (or OCA) thread

[Beagle]

OCA will have no real trouble meeting their NPAT forecast for FY18...
However once that report drops, it becomes another ticker in a rather low valuation sector of the market.
OCA has a very FY18 centric pipeline, there is little info on the timeline for FY19 construction and sales commencement.

It will not be given a premium to the market... 13-16 times forward earnings seems to be most likely.



Forward Underlying PE

FY18E

FY19E

Notes to FY19









RYM - $9.50

25x

20x

Pipeline heavily focused on FY19 - Huge pipeline indeed



SUM - $5.19

14.5x

12.8x

Steady pipeline



ARV - $1.24

16.3x

13.7x

Pipeline focused on FY19 - Relying on resale's for FY18



OCA - $1.03

14.1x

13.8x

Relying on resale's for FY19 ( developments in planning and construction stages )



MET - $6.00

17x

15.8x

Steady pipeline




As for MPG, the construction sector has been growing revenues very well, albeit with terrible marginal contraction... the construction cycle is not yet over and their may be some hope left.
MPG could return a 20-50% gain by the end of the year with any sign of strength, whereas maximum returns on OCA from current levels would be 20-30%

Unlikely performer, but a higher potential return in MPG for the next 12 months on the market, far less risk with OCA and a more stable outlook.

Voted for OCA

Nice summary mate. On your numbers the cheapest stock there SUM at 12.8 x FY19's earnings has the highest proven CAGR.

Winner - Was just a bit of light hearted fun mate seeing as they happened to be at exactly the same price yesterday afternoon. Beagles can be silly dog's, when they're bored they play with any toy they can find :)

[Dust]

So are we going to have to redo this poll now? :laugh::laugh:

[winner69]

MPG doing terrible but the favourite in this race is doing even worse by the looks of it

[Beagle]

MPG doing terrible but the favourite in this race is doing even worse by the looks of it

Both stocks dogged by unfavorable sector sentiment at present.

Crossed my mind to do another silly poll this afternoon. THL and SUM both closed at $4.92. Didn't start one because I can't decide which has better prospects in the year ahead lol. Just as well I have a bob or three on each. Maybe they'll both do really well and I'll get the quinella :)

[Beagle]

Game back on with these two both closed at 94 cps. SUM and THL more or less in lock step too.

[Beagle]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

[trader_jackson]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

Even more spooky given one has very sound fundamentals while the other... well not so much.
Maybe OCA is buying glass of MPG and MPG is allowing the highly (some ridiculously so) paid directors and/or managers etc to retire early into an OCA village?

[JeremyALD]

One pays a much better dividend too :)

[trader_jackson]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

Just over a month later and how things have changed... one has gone north, the other south

[winner69]

Just over a month later and how things have changed... one has gone north, the other south

Still true mate but maybe you should have waited a few days before pointing this out after yesterday’s collapse of the OCA share price

Remember 97 cents was the base for the poll.

[Beagle]

Still true mate but maybe you should have waited a few days before pointing this out after yesterday’s collapse of the OCA share price

Remember 97 cents was the base for the poll.

Original base price post#1 was $1.02 mate. Notwithstanding yesterday's correction to overhyped expectations for OCA I think its pretty clear which one is shaping up as "the pup"

[winner69]

Original base price post#1 was $1.02 mate. Notwithstanding yesterday's correction to overhyped expectations for OCA I think its pretty clear which one is shaping up as "the pup"

Sorry, yes it was $1.02 .....and they were both 97 cents a while ago

Wasn’t OCA the hot favourite to win this race.

[Beagle]

Sorry, yes it was $1.02 .....and they were both 97 cents a while ago

Wasn’t OCA the hot favourite to win this race.

I reckon it still is mate, just that some people's expectations for the first half were a bit high. I'm happy to hold, its currently trading right in line with NTA. Taking into account their care reputation one could argue some premium to NTA is warranted, surely some element of IP is warranted to be included in the SP...you don't build a care reputation like their's overnight do you !

[trader_jackson]

Sorry, yes it was $1.02 .....and they were both 97 cents a while ago

Wasn’t OCA the hot favourite to win this race.

OCA still looks like the hot favorite to win, more so than ever now... 18c or something gap now
Unfortunate that the game seems to have turned into a who will drop the least, rather than who will rise the most

[t.rexjr]

OCA or MPG Baseline







Company

Code

Base Date

Base Price

Market Price

Change

Period



MetroGlass

MPG.NZX (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=MPG&qqe=NZSE)

16/10/2017

102

88

14

down

13.7%

38 weeks



Oceania

OCA.NZX (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=OCA&qqe=NZSE)

16/10/2017

103

111

8

up

7.8%

38 weeks




9800

[Beagle]

Collective wisdom of this forum has once again shown itself to be of value.

[whatsup]

OCA or MPG Baseline







Company

Code

Base Date

Base Price

Market Price

Change

Period



MetroGlass

MPG.NZX (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=MPG&qqe=NZSE)

16/10/2017

102

88

14

down

13.7%

38 weeks



Oceania

OCA.NZX (https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=OCA&qqe=NZSE)

16/10/2017

103

111

8

up

7.8%

38 weeks




9800

I think that this was always going to happen to MPG considering its history !

[TheHunter]

Still early days!;)

[trader_jackson]

OCA still looks like the hot favorite to win, more so than ever now... 18c or something gap now
Unfortunate that the game seems to have turned into a who will drop the least, rather than who will rise the most

31c gap now, and (dare I say it), it looks set to only increase.

[janner]

31c gap now, and (dare I say it), it looks set to only increase.

Will be very surprised if MPG comes out unscathed from the current building problems.

[trader_jackson]

40+c gap/50% higher than MPG by weeks end for sure, already at 38c


Not even a competiton these days
Not sure it was ever going to be a competition

[Beagle]

Collective wisdom of the forum has shone through brilliantly.
Might start another thread speculating on outcome 12 months hence from this one. Will OCA be double the SP of MPG by mid October 2019?

[minimoke]

OCA will have no real trouble meeting their NPAT forecast for FY18...
However once that report drops, it becomes another ticker in a rather low valuation sector of the market.
OCA has a very FY18 centric pipeline, there is little info on the timeline for FY19 construction and sales commencement.

It will not be given a premium to the market... 13-16 times forward earnings seems to be most likely.



Sept 2017


Sept 2018


RYM - $9.50


$13.48


SUM - $5.19


$7.70


ARV - $1.24


$1.34


OCA - $1.03


$1.18


MET - $6.00


$6.26




Just for comparison purposes I've changed a column and put in today's prices.

[horus1]

Nasty royal Commission in AU will affect all age care stocks NZ and AU.

[minimoke]

Nasty royal Commission in AU will affect all age care stocks NZ and AU.Might cause them to go up when punters realise how well run they are relative to other offerings.

[t.rexjr]

Happened to notice both these recent listings are trading at exactly the same price this afternoon $1.02.
To the best of my knowledge they're both on pretty similar PE's too with OCA forecasting 8.42 cps so forward PE about 12 and MPG about 10.2 based on 10 cps.

So...one year from now which stock is higher ?

OCA takes it out with reasonable conviction, MPG never really troubling the bookies. The sharetrader massive were on form!

[trader_jackson]

Wow that gap getting bigly today... who voted for MPG again? Must have clicked the wrong button or something

[Beagle]

Wow that gap getting bigly today... who voted for MPG again? Must have clicked the wrong button or something

We need a new poll, will one OCA be worth more or less than 3 times MPG in two years time :)

[Maverick]

To be fair we didn't know as much about OCA when this poll was taken as what we know now ..... but on its most basic level which is going to win?
A. a company building rentals for well healed senior citizens (which they pay for in full upfront) in a well organized industry and target rich environment.
B. a company in the highly competitive (and chaotic) construction industry offering a basic construction element (glass , no matter how you dress it).

The fact 25 % of pundits picked option B just proves why ordinary schmucks as myself can actually do ok in this game.