The 1987 crash - could it happen again?

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932723

For me this time is not different but it is better be cautious than regret later. I have experience with finance companies how they went to receiverships. Best places to put money now are outstanding companies with long term business model, defensive areas and value opportunities. Do you think so? Thanks.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/this-time-the-stock-markets-different-isnt-it-20171008-gywti6.html

[JeremyALD]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932723

For me this time is not different but it is better be cautious than regret later. I have experience with finance companies how they went to receiverships. Best places to put money now are outstanding companies with long term business model, defensive areas and value opportunities. Do you think so? Thanks.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/this-time-the-stock-markets-different-isnt-it-20171008-gywti6.html

No, but a war could change things. I think this bull run still has some legs

[kiora]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932723

For me this time is not different but it is better be cautious than regret later. I have experience with finance companies how they went to receiverships. Best places to put money now are outstanding companies with long term business model, defensive areas and value opportunities. Do you think so? Thanks.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/this-time-the-stock-markets-different-isnt-it-20171008-gywti6.html

Totally agree.Portfolio value went down around 70 % in 87 but it recovered all its value within 2 yrs by reinvesting in solid companies . Crashes are just another opportunity.

[GTM 3442]

It's different every time, so no, we won't see a repeat of 1987. But given that there's some sort of crisis every ten years or so, it's tempting to speculate what it'll be this time

[couta1]

It's different every time, so no, we won't see a repeat of 1987. But given that there's some sort of crisis every ten years or so, it's tempting to speculate what it'll be this time WW3 would probably fit the bill.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.marketriders.com/investing/its-not-different-this-time/

It's not different this time.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/stock-market-news-investor-cash-levels-record-lows-could-derail-bull-rally-2017-10?r=US&IR=T

US investors are running out of cash -- and that's terrible news for the stock market

[bartholemew]

There's a lot of uncertainty at the moment, and I'm not entirely sure what the right move to make is.

Asset prices are at extraordinarily high levels, NZ house prices are some of the highest in the world (in relation to local incomes) having seen near vertical gains in recent years. The new government's policies, in my opinion, are highly inflationary, the NZD is already reacting accordingly against most major currency pairs. Even overseas markets appear to be developing cracks (US, China, Australian financial sector)..

Do I keep my money in cash and have it devalue? Do I put it into stocks and risk losing a significant amount when the 'mother of all bubbles' bursts? Do i put it into bonds/term deposits and lock in those really low returns of around 3-4% per annum?

Who knows. Things were much easier when all I had to decide was what to watch on TV.

[arc]

http://www.marketriders.com/investing/its-not-different-this-time/

It's not different this time.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/stock-market-news-investor-cash-levels-record-lows-could-derail-bull-rally-2017-10?r=US&IR=T

US investors are running out of cash -- and that's terrible news for the stock market

I agree.
Most US households are already carrying large debt loads. Most US businesses are either running on fumes or recycling borrowings.
"When" the correction comes, it wont be pretty.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes Arc I am also wary about debt load, easy money and leverages taken place in global markets.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-slump-could-start-affect-stock-markets-wells-fargo/

Is it going to be true this time?

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-market-50-time-highs/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/u-s-fund-managers-expect-value-stocks-to-jump-in-2018-idUSKBN1EU1YR

[Joshuatree]

You are all in cash and manifesting a crash MW?:D

[Valuegrowth]

Not really. I am fully invested in overlooked extremely undervalued stocks(quality companies having long term business model).I don't expect sudden crash but I am cautious now. Joshuatree what is your view on stock markets now? Thanks.

[hogie]

Not really. I am fully invested in overlooked extremely undervalued stocks(quality companies having long term business model).I don't expect sudden crash but I am cautious now. Joshuatree what is your view on stock markets now? Thanks.

Irrational fear ... things are going great ;)

[Joshuatree]

My intuition based on a lot of stuff ive read is that we are in a pretty healthy business environment globally with only 3 countries in recession, generally low unemployment and companies performing well. Inflation and int rate rises are the elephant in the room and the mkts are forward looking but we aint there yet. Pricing in metals generally good, oil going up gradually, increasing demand.Agriculture in a good cycle, wine shortage looming:(.Yes debt galore but no junk bonds packaged up as AA quality. . NZ in a good cycle still.Waiting for a floor.

[beetills]

I agree.
Most US households are already carrying large debt loads. Most US businesses are either running on fumes or recycling borrowings.
"When" the correction comes, it wont be pretty.
The correction will come,no doubt about it.When,who knows.

[Everwood]

I'm looking forward to the next crash! It could be the greatest purchasing opportunity in my life time.

[macduffy]

I'm looking forward to the next crash! It could be the greatest purchasing opportunity in my life time.

I would add ..........."so far!"

;)

[Beagle]

My intuition based on a lot of stuff ive read is that we are in a pretty healthy business environment globally with only 3 countries in recession, generally low unemployment and companies performing well. Inflation and int rate rises are the elephant in the room and the mkts are forward looking but we aint there yet. Pricing in metals generally good, oil going up gradually, increasing demand.Agriculture in a good cycle, wine shortage looming:(.Yes debt galore but no junk bonds packaged up as AA quality. . NZ in a good cycle still.Waiting for a floor.

I think that's fair comment. Interestingly at the recent Davos economic forum the consensus view was that average global economic growth was expected to be 3.9% in 2018.

[Raz]

I think that's fair comment. Interestingly at the recent Davos economic forum the consensus view was that average global economic growth was expected to be 3.9% in 2018.


Economic statistic do need to be looked at closely and not taken as read, reclassified and redefined makes them all appear better than they are. The past seven years i have never made so much funny money when I thought I had taken a hit from the Christchurch EQs that I may well never recover from. I just keep taking money off the table continually so now have a pile of cash and equities....its a balanced approach which leaves you not losing your shirt.

[Beagle]

Yes averages can be deceiving especially with large countries like China growing at nearly 7% but the broad consensus nonetheless is the world economy is in pretty good shape.

[winner69]

Yes averages can be deceiving especially with large countries like China growing at nearly 7% but the broad consensus nonetheless is the world economy is in pretty good shape.

The stock market is not the economy

Can get into trouble trying to correlate the two

[GTM 3442]

I'm hearing the financial services industry making soothing noises.

Reassuring noises.

I don't like it when they do that, it makes me nervous

[Joshuatree]

yes they have been hoovering up 'bargains ' today and want us "mums and dads" to buy up tomorrow. and they have their anti personnel bots in action too.but hey some rollercoasters to go yet ehh.