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Lewylewylewy
09-11-2017, 04:06 PM
Hi all,

Just shooting the breeze, random chat about NZX. Thought I'd list what I think are the best growth shares at the moment (along with their problems), share my opinion of the state of play and hopefully get some good opinions and tips.

So, my favourite growth shares (no particular order):

ABA Govt Policy could help if there's some media coverage on how dental could be better. Some govt risk if labour break the country. Dental is an interesting industry in NZ, because when old dentists retire, they sell their practice which will either be bought by a large company like ABA or it's competitor, or another dentist. What's interesting is that newly qualified dentists don't have money to buy a surgery or start up on their own, so they typically work for another dentist or org like ABA... Clearly, in the future there will be no private practices in NZ. Therefore ABA are on my list. I don't know what the ride will be like, or whether there will be better rate of increase in other NZX shares, either way ABA are a good hold.
FPH Expensive. Love the overseas earnings, small company in a big space and growing.
XRO Expensive.
RBD Govt Risk (could be good or bad - either labour will break the country or poorer folk will have cause to treat themselves to an extra bucket of chicken) - Mildly expensive. I recently sold these near the recent high as I predicted they'd drop a little. I don't know where they're going to go, short term.
ATM China Risk - Expensive. God, so expensive. I missed the boat here, but they don't pay a dividend.
SUM Govt Risk - Cheap. Could drop more. I can't help feeling that labour could break things and these will drop more. If they don't, these are a bargain. I have a parcel of these, so I wouldn't be too sad if I missed the boat and they went up to 5.50. I'm trying to sell my last rental property at the moment, so I'll possibly use SUM as a property fund hedge once that sells, so I won't miss out too much - only problem is if the govt whams them, or if it turns out they're not profitable in a flat market (something my gut tells me, but I can't see how they would have a valid company if they weren't, otherwise they might as well be a property company - maybe I might split my hedge between this and VHP).

Finally, any tips for shares? I have money for 2 share parcels (or one larger one). At the moment I'm just hanging out to see what happens. Maybe I'll just try to pick the low with FPH, but I can't help feeling that if the water drops, FPH will become more fairly priced.

JeremyALD
09-11-2017, 10:22 PM
I think Pushpay is looking good. Seems to have a lot of positive traction and more liquidity as of late.

Most things are looking expensive. And everything that isn't is doing poorly (Z Energy, MPG, ARV, SUM, TNR) so I don't know. And yes I have all of those in my portfolio, sigh. Luckily I have a few that are doing very well to make up for the rest.

Scrunch
09-11-2017, 10:36 PM
Interesting no references yet to THL. Strong recent increases in profitability. Growth sector. Possibly in-play as a takeover target (a Chinese company recently increased from 7.3% to 10.8%). A stated objective of a $50m net profit by 2020 which if achieved would make the current price cheap (market cap of $580m on 9 Nov 2017). In a long-term up trend. Negatives - does the strong share price growth over the last few years mean its over-priced? The industry has been cyclic in the past but this is at least partly mitigated now through exposure to multiple countries. Disc yes I'm holding this one.

Lewylewylewy
09-11-2017, 10:54 PM
PPH scares me because it's so niche, and I don't like the market. Does anyone else feel the same way?

THL I used to hold, sold at a profit. I'm waiting for the reset button to be hit so I can buy into it again. Kinda wish I held onto that one, though if I did, if probably be selling in this phase of my panic. Everything seems to be turning code brown, but maybe that's just me feeling fearful of risk?

Kinda wish that the NZX had more options

Oliver Mander
10-11-2017, 09:40 AM
I still regard MFT as a growth play...strong over the last 3 years, with no sign of abatement.
Agree with the commentary on THL above - even after the volatility over the last week or two, has held its value well.
still rate FPH also. Not in this one right now, as stop loss triggered last week, but that's my bad for setting that up a bit too tightly.

agree with lewy that there are not enough milk bowls for this particular cat to drink from on the NZX...but that is just a 'right now' thing, as it looks like all the growth has been priced in. still believe that the NZX offers good growth options over the long-term. Did some analysis a wee while ago, that I posted on this forum, showing returns on a total return basis for different world markets....NZX rated very well. By the way, when i say 'growth', I don't mean 'speculative'!!

I don't regard ZEL as a growth share at all - saturated in this market, with no options for growth other than an entry into another (overseas) market. where they would be a weak player. Actually regard ZEL as a fairly risky share - too much at the mercy of the (more efficient) international players.

disc: hold MFT and THL

fiasco
10-11-2017, 01:18 PM
PPH scares me because it's so niche, and I don't like the market. Does anyone else feel the same way?

THL I used to hold, sold at a profit. I'm waiting for the reset button to be hit so I can buy into it again. Kinda wish I held onto that one, though if I did, if probably be selling in this phase of my panic. Everything seems to be turning code brown, but maybe that's just me feeling fearful of risk?

Kinda wish that the NZX had more options

Currenlty holding both PPH (long term) and THL (As of today, medium term - given the long term trend, worth holding onto rather than buying/selling on dips)

What I love about PPH is:
1. Great niche product via a sound and innovated technology platform - reliability https://pushpay.statuspage.io/
2. Cracked the US market, unlike some others i.e. Xero
3. Yes, niche service at this stage, but their product could be easily be extended and because of their technology platform can do this with relative ease.
4. NASDAQ!

Beagle
10-11-2017, 06:03 PM
PPH for the same reasons as fiasco listed above
THL a good long term growth story with potential for a takeover. Chinese have been buying at this level, have they finished will they take it over
AIR is good buying at around $3.20, topped a few today
SUM is as cheap as an aviary full of budgies going cheep cheep cheep
HLG a classic dividend hounds stock, keeps this Beagle very well fed
ARG - cheap REIT with 6% net yield
GNE - Oil going up and currency down will help, acquisition of Nova's retail gas network a very good strategic fit as was buying up NZO's share of Kupe
HBL - Fully priced but pretty good fully imputed dividend yield plus prospects for dividend growth are sound.
CASH There is no harm whatsoever in sitting on some cash at present to wait and see if the new Labour left wing coalition experiment provides a stable environment for the market to "enjoy" or should that be persevere in ?
P.S. ATM IS expensive and presently not holding but depending on guidance at the annual meeting I might be interested again.