Guess the value of NZX50 on the last day of 2018

[value_investor]

Lets do some predictions to see how wrong we are at the end of 2018 and laugh at our crystal ball gazing abilities!(given I laugh at market predictors all the time anyways so maybe I should laugh at myself too)

I still think there will be strength in a lot of industries, however some of the gains in NZX50 have been skewed slightly because of the over performance of select few like ATM and AIR which really pushes up an index with less shares. I'm hoping we come to our senses a little bit with some of the valuations in the market but who knows, this bull has surprised me.

There is one more day left in 2017 for trading (and an abbreviated trading day), but we are at 8,364 reflecting about a 20% gain in 2017 which has been an unbelievable result.

My guess is 9122

Winner gets a good old chocolate fish

[Arbroath]

Lets do some predictions to see how wrong we are at the end of 2018 and laugh at our crystal ball gazing abilities!(given I laugh at market predictors all the time anyways so maybe I should laugh at myself too)

I still think there will be strength in a lot of industries, however some of the gains in NZX50 have been skewed slightly because of the over performance of select few like ATM and AIR which really pushes up an index with less shares. I'm hoping we come to our senses a little bit with some of the valuations in the market but who knows, this bull has surprised me.

There is one more day left in 2017 for trading (and an abbreviated trading day), but we are at 8,364 reflecting about a 20% gain in 2017 which has been an unbelievable result.

My guess is 9122

Winner gets a good old chocolate fish

My guess - 8650

[Jantar]

I'll be a bit more optimistic at 9999

[Blue Horseshoe]

Stock market crash coming, I'd say 2500

[thestg]

10,122 :D THL, OCA, HLG will all do well (I Hope)

[Oliver Mander]

I will go 9375...

[Beagle]

10,000 exactly.

[Minerbarejet]

Ill do an outlier: 13750.
Always positive, you know me.

[Valuegrowth]

Stock market crash coming, I'd say 2500

It is highly unlikely that it will hit 2500. It may drop to 5000 during next two years.In a worst case scenario, it may drop to 4000.At least it may drop below 8000 and it may reach 7000 or 6000 by the end of 2018. Investors who fare best in 2018 will be selective, with a focus on high quality (strong balance sheets). Stock pickers will have a chance to shine. Value investors will have more chance. Overlooked stocks could be the best bet. In short, I am bearish but see opportunity in overlooked stocks and overlooked markets in 2018.

[hardt]

9450 as the good times roll... the good times will never come to an end right guys? ;)

[winner69]

Ill do an outlier: 13750.
Always positive, you know me.

We’re talking nzx50 here mate .....not Bitcoin

[iceman]

9250 it will be :-)

[tim23]

8500 not expecting much to happen

[bohemian]

I'm expecting more inflation, tax cut for April cancelled and lower consumer confidence. So I'll go for 8750.

[LAC]

Last day 2018:) 10187

[JeremyALD]

9200....i think we have at least 1 strong year left.

[sammiesmiles]

11000 or more....

[Beagle]

9200....i think we have at least 1 strong year left.

Common mate, its a gross index inclusive of an average 5% dividend so 9200 isn't going to cut it in terms of it being another bull year, the poster after you has the right idea although I'm adamant 10,000 is exactly right :D but if sammiesmiles is right I won't be complaining.

[JeremyALD]

Common mate, its a gross index inclusive of an average 5% dividend so 9200 isn't going to cut it in terms of it being another bull year, the poster after you has the right idea although I'm adamant 10,000 is exactly right :D but if sammiesmiles is right I won't be complaining.

You never know, but a2, Xero and SML pushed the index up quite a bit in 2017 and I can't see where similar gains will come from in 2018 (maybe Pushpay). I'm sticking with my 9200 prediction given how expensive the market is. I hope it gets beaten :)

[value_investor]

You never know, but a2, Xero and SML pushed the index up quite a bit in 2017 and I can't see where similar gains will come from in 2018 (maybe Pushpay). I'm sticking with my 9200 prediction given how expensive the market is. I hope it gets beaten :)


Yeah, we kinda had a few outliers this year with the ones you said. Even then, there was AIR,FPH and THL that went up 50% odd. Although, keep in mind a select few did disappoint. Although I can't see the same ones doing the heavy lifting again. Will be interesting for sure.

[hardt]

How about the ample supply of mid teen movers this year that have plenty left in the tank heading into 2018.

+10-20%
SUM
MEL
GMT
PCT
EBO
VHP
MET
IPL

Enough here to believe another 10-14% (Inclusive of dividends) is in store for us next year...

[Everwood]

6700, market correction coming sometime in 2018

[Valuegrowth]

6700, market correction coming sometime in 2018

Everwood

In my opinion your target is achievable. It is time to go for quality.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/news/wise-investors-are-already-planning-for-the-next-bear-market/ar-BBHqvbu (https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/news/wise-investors-are-already-planning-for-the-next-bear-market/ar-BBHqvbu)

Wise Investors Are Already Planning for the Next Bear Market

[winner69]

One thing 2017 proved was that this time it is different ....no doubt about it

NZX soars more than profits and reaches new highs and heaps of other things ...and 2018 will be buoyed by a Labour Government fuelled booming economy.

So as this time it is different the NZX50 well north of 10,000 (and that’s only a 20% gain) and 2018 will be even better ...wow

[macduffy]

Let's hope so, winner. But remember, it's usually a "black swan" event that bursts the confidence bubble. Foreseen by few, but more obvious in hindsight!

:mellow:

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/this-time-the-stock-markets-different-isnt-it-20171008-gywti6.html

This time the stock market's different, isn't it?

[drcjp]

I'm picking a nowhere year. Prob +/- 5% from now. There are performers that can push on but one suspects outside events (NZ govt policies and cockups, European uncertainty plus increasing Asian friction) will dampen things.

[winner69]

I'm picking a nowhere year. Prob +/- 5% from now. There are performers that can push on but one suspects outside events (NZ govt policies and cockups, European uncertainty plus increasing Asian friction) will dampen things.

Hope this isn't you in a years time drcjp - waiting another year for the merry go round to stop

Methinks 2018 will be jsut as good if not better than 2017

[WayOverTheHill]

6700, market correction coming sometime in 2018

Agree with Everwood, market correction on the way, after such a large rise over the last few years, my guess is 5700 for year end

[Beagle]

How about the ample supply of mid teen movers this year that have plenty left in the tank heading into 2018.

+10-20%
SUM
MEL
GMT
PCT
EBO
VHP
MET
IPL

Enough here to believe another 10-14% (Inclusive of dividends) is in store for us next year...

Agree and SUM are better value than others.
Sure there's a lot of expectation built into the SP of stocks like ATM, Synlait and PPH to name three but I expect them to deliver handsomely. Perhaps 2018 won't be a huge year for the milky ones but long term you'd be a brave man to bet against their growth prospects.

[couta1]

6700, market correction coming sometime in 2018 Some US commentators are predicting a 10-15% correction to the US markets this year and that the corporate tax cuts will only produce a short lived rise. Add to that the lack of the usual Santa Claus rally which some believe is a precursor to a bear market possibility makes it hard to see where the NZX will finish up. I will go with 7500.

[winner69]

A bull market in interest rates is a bear market for you

http://moneyonline.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/r/F1C49CBA8C372CB12540EF23F30FEDED/14A8977493751DAA025DA65DC0D0F53AA bull market in interest rates is a bear market for you

[value_investor]

Some US commentators are predicting a 10-15% correction to the US markets this year and that the corporate tax cuts will only produce a short lived rise. Add to that the lack of the usual Santa Claus rally which some believe is a precursor to a bear market possibility makes it hard to see where the NZX will finish up. I will go with 7500.

I've read a lot more doomsday predictors this time around than we had last year, but a lot of them point to very isolated events occurring or are under the pretense that since we haven't had a crash in record time we are due which is a silly.

Looking back at the predictions made a year ago, I can see alot of these 'experts' didn't go for the jugular and say that the markets would gain as much as it did. A lot of the time, it seems when they are unsure they will say something like "high single digits" which is just a sure way to be safe and not get caught out.

Funny now with the internet, and with the last crash a lot of people are in fear of being caught out as wrong as those who are get their name spoiled.

Any who, time in the market is much stronger than timing the market imo.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-10/prepare-for-the-next-bear-market-in-stocks

[value_investor]

Interesting re-reading the thread, a lot more optimism at the start of the year. Are people still feeling the same heading into earnings season? I've been reading a lot of low business confidence etc.

The nzx50 has really outperformed most other indexes out there. We're up about 8% already for the year and it hasn't been an outlier type of year for stocks.

https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/smartlarge/tnz

The top 10 as per today even shows more room for improvement if some of these stinkers could turn around even a little bit from where they started. SPK, FBU, ZEL, SKC aren't pulling all their own weight..

[Beagle]

Still hoping for 10,000 but we will need to see less upheaval and troublemaking from "the Don" to get there. Risk is this left wing inexperienced govt undermines business confidence even further and then all bets are off as business's go in to their collective shells, stop capex spending and hunker down for what could be a recession.