What price range will FBU close at the end of trading on 12th February ?

[Beagle]

As the thread title suggested. The trading halt will come off Monday morning. What price do you think they'll trade at, at the close of trading for the day bearing in mind this is their third downgrade and they have been on trading halt while the market has been falling.

[minimoke]

theres me in at $6.10

[Beagle]

I'm in at the low $6's too but wouldn't pay anything anywhere near that myself. This poll is just my morbid fascination with train wrecks and grossly incompetent train drivers.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/88a143c3/fletcher-s-construction-business-worth-550m-in-morningstar-model-excluding-unknown-b-i-discount.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fletchers%20construction%20business%2 0worth%20550M%20in%20Morningstar%20model%20excludi ng%20unknown%20BI%20discount&utm_content=Fletchers%20construction%20business%20 worth%20550M%20in%20Morningstar%20model%20excludin g%20unknown%20BI%20discount+CID_acb55c869f9fdb065e 36dbbe406daace&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle88a143c3fletch er-s-construction-business-worth-550m-in-morningstar-model-excluding-unknown-b-i-discounthtml

For what its worth...

[value_investor]

I thought after the last downgrade, it should have been trading at close to $6, so depending on the announcement Monday it should be less than that even.

Can't tell until the result comes out but the current valuation is laughable.

[Valuegrowth]

In the short run, it should have support around $7.If there is a panic situation, it can go to as low as $5.

[carrom74]

As the thread title suggested. The trading halt will come off Monday morning. What price do you think they'll trade at, at the close of trading for the day bearing in mind this is their third downgrade and they have been on trading halt while the market has been falling.

It baffles me that not long ago(about 2 months) the new CEO bought FBU shares around $7... what we he thinking at that time?

[Anna Naum]

It baffles me that not long ago(about 2 months) the new CEO bought FBU shares around $7... what we he thinking at that time?

I think it was part of his employment contract

[Balance]

It baffles me that not long ago(about 2 months) the new CEO bought FBU shares around $7... what we he thinking at that time?

You are assuming that FBU is going to never get above $7 again?

History tells us that there's BIG money to be made whenever Fletcher gets itself in trouble - on several occasions.

[winner69]

You are assuming that FBU is going to never get above $7 again?

History tells us that there's BIG money to be made whenever Fletcher gets itself in trouble - on several occasions.

So true Balance

Almost seems they plan these periods of self destruction so they can be morphed into something else.

Hope the Fletcher name is never lost.

[Rep]

Same as Friday - trading halt extended at FBU request pending additional disclosures around breach of banking covenants and conditions of waiver.

[minimoke]

Same as Friday - trading halt extended at FBU request pending additional disclosures around breach of banking covenants and conditions of waiver.
Ie rooting around in the back cupboard to find a bit more cash

[carrom74]

[QUOTE=Balance;703334]You are assuming that FBU is going to never get above $7 again?

The new CEO bought them as early as couple of weeks in the company.It was a on-market trade...Hence the surprise... and it went up considerably after that...

May be $7 would be the right price to enter(just like Trilogy at $2.10 eh:cool:)

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Balance;703334]You are assuming that FBU is going to never get above $7 again?

The new CEO bought them as early as couple of weeks in the company.It was a on-market trade...Hence the surprise... and it went up considerably after that...

May be $7 would be the right price to enter(just like Trilogy at $2.10 eh:cool:)

Wish I knew, Carrom74.

What I can say is that the market gets too worked up over bad (or good) news often and ignores the fundamental value which can emerge from corporate restructuring.

As mentioned, saw that with Fletcher Group in the early 1990s and again, in the early 2000s.

[peat]

how bell shaped is that curve ?

[hardt]

Excluding B+I - FBU is set to report earnings for the year of around 680m-780m, not bad at all for a market cap of ~5,400m.

This is half the event some are making of it, sell off incoming, covenants will be renegotiated and all will be forgotten in 12 months time... ( little bit of satire maybe? )

I don't think I would be keen on jumping in just yet though.

[winner69]

Well well if this was a competition I’m the WINNER ha ha

Well picked Winner

Rep did have same idea but he didn’t enter/ submit/ compete

[minimoke]

Where was the delay in announcement option?

[winner69]

how bell shaped is that curve ?

.....and an outlier is the winner

Lesson ...wisdom of the crowd not always a good thing ......or punters don’t take into account what could go wrong (risks) when making assessments ....or whatever

[winner69]

Where was the delay in announcement option?

The $7.50-$8.00 option ...but everybody will say that $7.77 isn’t really the closing price because there was no opening price .....but clever interpret the question what will be shown as the price at the close of the NZX on feb 12th

[peat]

The $7.50-$8.00 option

thats completely spurious.
Try selling them at that price today.
more realistically the price is zero.

[winner69]

thats completely spurious.
Try selling them at that price today.
more realistically the price is zero.

Need in call in the TMO I reckon

That was so much a try that Welsh (or Kiwi) guy scored the other night

[winner69]

Have noticed th3 FBU share price last traded at 777

Thought three sevens were a sign of good fortune

[777]

Have noticed th3 FBU share price last traded at 777

Thought three sevens were a sign of good fortune

Yep........

[Beagle]

Pathetic that they can't even meet their own deadline.
Obviously the underlying intent of the thread was to pick the price when trading began again, (if and when that happens).
I put IF in there because I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of them not being able to reach agreement with their lenders. I would have thought its quite obvious now the wood rot runs very deep with this one. How does anyone have confidence in the directors any more after this latest chapter in this unmitigated fiasco ?
If they weren't scalping the public through their market dominance position with Placemakers this thing would be on very shaky ground in my opinion.
I think their balance sheet is pretty stretched. I wouldn't rule out the chance of a major capital raise and with the markets presently in a state of unease such a capital raise might have to be at a deep discount, like $5 and we could see the SP drift down to that level through disaffected shareholders voting with their feet. Shareholders should brace for a pretty good belting with this one.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11992576

[minimoke]

If they weren't scalping the public through their market dominance position with Placemakers this thing would be on very shaky ground in my opinion.
I have a trade account with Placemenkers that hasn't been used for ages. Bunnings came to play but most recently Mitre10 has been getting my business.

[Rep]

Well well if this was a competition I’m the WINNER ha ha

Well picked Winner

Rep did have same idea but he didn’t enter/ submit/ compete

Blame apathy - much like the FBU boards over the last two decades, I wasn't really that motivated about posting a winning result.

The delay today seems to have caught a number of folk unexpectedly including the board, management and PR corps - it might be too soon to use the adjective of arrogance that they would have a waiver as a fait accompli when there's a couple of billion on their loan marker. A banker might want to play hard ball on that line fee now...

[Baa_Baa]

The delay today seems to have caught a number of folk unexpectedly including the board, management and PR corps - it might be too soon to use the adjective of arrogance that they would have a waiver as a fait accompli when there's a couple of billion on their loan marker. A banker might want to play hard ball on that line fee now...

Well put, the b****ers have a tight grip on their soft spot and will be screwing them to ensure they get paid, whether it's sell some assets, do a cap raise, issue some debt .. whatever it takes, FBU can pay (back) their way out if this. Too big to fail? No not really, that's a bit drastic and unnecessary. There is a way forward, it just won't be to shareholders liking whatever the outcome.

Never ignore the words 'default on banking covenants'. Control shifts in unpleasant ways, for equity holders.

[minimoke]

theres me in at $6.10
My opening position not looking good. Who would pay $6.74. Never mind, lets see how the rest of the day plays out. I'm not conceding yet.

[Beagle]

My opening position not looking good. Who would pay $6.74. Never mind, lets see how the rest of the day plays out. I'm not conceding yet.

With deep systemic issues in that company you'd want your head examined in my opinion.

[Baa_Baa]

$7.05 at the high side of the spread of choices.
6 right (well done)
40 wrong

[Joshuatree]

Maybe the value of 1 cheese and mince pie or 3 leadhead roof nails(these are now collectors rarity items :)