Your $1m inheritance is locked for 10 years in one company, which one ?

[Beagle]

I was brushing up on a little bit of Buffet today and thought I'd play a little theoretical exercise this weekend. I have my answer already but will post that on Monday.


Congratulations, you just inherited one million dollars and there are just two conditions. Its to be held in trust for you and all dividends received reinvested and you can't touch it for 10 years. You can only choose one company to invest the full amount into. Which company do you choose and why ?

[Cricketfan]

I'd probably go with SUM. Pretty safe and should grow quite a bit.

[couta1]

Not many companies on the NZX you could feel easy about leaving that amount of money in for 10 years, one name springs instantly to mind and that is RYM. Look at their history and delivery of wealth into shareholders hands since they first listed.

[percy]

HBL, or TRA,or MEL or GNE,or EBO.or POT,or MFT,and or as Couta1, RYM..

[blackcap]

I would cheat and probably say FNZ.

But if one company was the answer, I would go either MHJ, TRA, or SUM.

[hardt]

New Zealand's very own BRK... got to be IFT for me.

Energy/Accommodation/Data/Transport & Essential Infrastructure all rolled into one well managed, discounted, phat dividend payer.

[Patient Panda]

Easy.
Ryman healthcare.

Theres no company / management I trust more

[Ggcc]

At today’s prices ATM. With a bit more knowledge about their business which is coming up OCA. Just too early to say do it.

[Beagle]

Come on guys, you only get ONE choice, which one and why ?

[pierre]

My pick is XRO. The business is expected to achieve 1 million Uk customers in the next 3-4 years and there are plenty of other markets to enter too. Even if the US expectations are not met it will soon start generating a profit and once the tipping point is reached it will become a real cash cow. At the end of 10 years my 1 million will be worth truckloads. When is my million going to paid over?
If I can't pick an ASX listed company, then my choice is ATM for similar cash cow (pardon the pun) reasons.

[traineeinvestor]

Okay. I'll have a go at .... but please note that I'm posting under a name that reflects my qualifications to express an opinion (or lack thereof).

My criteria are based on the idea that if I have to lock up a large (for me) amount of money for 10 years, I should be more concerned with controlling downside risk than searching for the largest amount of potential upside. Like Mark Twain, I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.

Relevant factors:

1. the risk of disruption through new competition, technological change, environmental factors or regulations
2. the existence of some kind of defensive moat
3. a good track record in delivering for shareholders – in particular an expectation that dividends will grow enough to at least offset inflation
4. acceptable valuation - particularly bearing in mind the importance of compounding dividends over a ten year period – I would like a starting net dividend yield above the current rate of inflation
5. I would prefer a company that is unlikely to need to raise further capital from shareholders - companies which raise money through placings damage shareholder value in the process and, as a non-resident, most NZ companies will not let me participate in rights issues
6. leverage should be low given expectations of rising interest rates

There are some very good to excellent companies which have track records in delivering value to shareholders and which (quite rightly) get a lot of attention on this board: MFT, RYM, SUM, IFT, ATM, POT, FRE and AIA among others

For my purposes, I have eliminated the retirement sector from consideration because of (in some cases) high valuations which assume a lot of future growth, because of vulnerability to regulatory "reform" and because of the potential for new competition to enter the market.

I have eliminated MFT and ATM on valuation grounds.

I have eliminated anything involving biological products for obvious reasons.

I have eliminated the electricity companies because of the potential for technological disruption and regulatory change. IFT is excluded for the same reason (although the diversification makes it tempting).

SKC was eliminated because of its debt levels.

Finance companies and consumer discretionary are too boom/bust for the purposes of this exercise. This takes out HBL, TNR and MCK.

I'm left with four companies which have at least partial monopolies: AIA, POT, SPN and MMH. AIA and POT are very expensive. SPN has no volume. So I am left with MMH which offers a trailing yield of 2.9% net/4.1% gross, trades on a trailing PE of 21 (a bit high but I will take it) and offers a coherent growth strategy (benefitting from the limitations of Port of Auckland, the growth in international trade (Trump notwithstanding), population growth in and north of Auckland and the use of the land bank adjacent to their existing operations. I'm assuming current political tailwinds are a short term thing and not relying on them.

The only problem: the shares are thinly traded so it could take several weeks to invest the full $1 million.

For me, a plan B would involving buying shares in WBC or ANZ which are listed on NZ and immediately transferring them from the NZ to the Australian share register where the Australian franking credits would eliminate NRWT I would have deducted if I left them on the NZ register. Compounding a 6.5-7.0% dividend yield (more if there is a discount on the DRP???) for 10 years should handily beat inflation. (And, yes, I am aware that this contradicts what I said above about not choosing a finance company.)

Looking forward to seeing what others come up with.

[Raz]

Raz Corp, with Trumps tax cuts is in high growth mode and I know whats happening on the inside. As you are all decent people I will sort a private placement for your inheritance as well. If we are talking NZX then RYM..why.. not just because of their track record but with customers that can afford it..they are the brand of choice.

[iceman]

FPH. Proven and well managed company with a long history of delivery. Is in a fast growing market with a well known and much liked product. Great FX hedging for Kiwis.

[Joshuatree]

First off POT. Monopoly that will just keep on growing, s/p too.. Fabulous assets and natural harbour, perfectly placed. Room for expansion still and better tech keeps shortening turn around ship times.
Bigger ships ,11000 containers size now!! Fantastic management and an NZ essential service. Has gone up 4-500% in 10 years, will keep growing next ten years, maybe not so much.
Lowest risk stock around with a huge moat to match imo. May not increase as much as a few others but a sleep well at night stock for 10 years, it fits the bill, so price to me is way down the list of importance.. Least likely to be interfered with by govt and regs. Never cheap for all the above reasons etc.

[ratkin]

IFT They have a good range of investments meaning that although you are investing in just One stock your eggs are not in such a small basket as with some of the others which have more company specific risk.

Unlike most other NZ stocks the current price is not overly stretched, and they have some great growth potential in their portfolio yet are not valued as a growth stock.

[Carpenterjoe]

I like risk and growth, ill pass on the dividends. Not sure if GNX/NXT are allowed being on the ASX.
Both compliment each other, cant have data without lots of electricity.

Cant have any cloud services without electricity or data.

All businesses/people want both products.

Both will be consumed during any global downturn.

Both are cashed up and young companies.

Flip a coin for the one, 👍

[bohemian]

Google,Amazon,Apple,Nvidia,Microsoft, take your pick but best of the best over 10 years, Apple and Google.

[beetills]

No expert thats for sure and really no particular reason for hold these shares apart from that they appear to go about their business in a quiet manner and continue to pay a divie(rather small).
CDI

[axe]

RYM - track record + future demographics

[minimoke]

For this exercise I'll look at a bit of history, a bit of today and a bit of the future.

In my Portfolio One I have one stock that has given me 2,350% capital growth plus dividends since I've owned it.

In the past few days I have received a nice dividend in my bank account. I have also received a nice fat Annual report that offers me lots of bedtime reading.

Alas like others I am getting older and I'm a demographic that needs to be taken into account - especially with my new found $1m inheritance.

All up theres only one choice. And thats Ryman. A proven company that still faces a pretty certain future.

edit SP at time of post was $12.07

[kiwico]

If there wasn't the reference to 'company" I would ignore the fact this is is in the NZ forum and go with the ETF VTI - the Vanguard ETF for the total US market.

As it does say company I would still ignore the NZ forum part and go with BRK-A. Despite their not keeping up with the S&P500 in the last ten years of the current bull market I think they will show their mettle when the tide turns.

If it has to be a NZX listed company I would still cheat by going for BIT - Bankers Investment Trust PLC - which I currently hold on the LSE. My money being held by people knowing far more about investing than I ever will with them doing their best for me sounds ideal.

But I would sulk big time about the FIF regime for all of the above. Interestingly, despite these comments, I still have 50% of my share market investments in NZ.

[value_investor]

Company I would go RYM just because of how secure it is even though its so damn expensive right now. I see the levers in the industry being turned up in the next 10 years in favor of them.

If you said stock I would have said FNZ. I would take a safe return more than speculating if that is my inheritance.

[Joshuatree]

Good thread Beagle, to promote discussion, opinions, ideas.No one answer is best or right or wrong. 10 years locked in is a long time so risk is by far the biggest priority for me personally.

[Jay]

I think I would go for the retirement sector, as has been said many times, there will be more older people over the next while and out of my picks of RYM, SUM or OCA, would go for SUM- More runs on the board than OCA, not quite as many as RYM and therefore in my opinion a better growth prospect. RYM may start to flatten out sooner than SUM imho.

IN saying all that I have some funds in OCA only at present, no it is not $1M or anything close to 6 figures even and it is not for 10 years, well not at this stage in any event, I can always sell if need be, where as with this theoretical pick you can't.
Or I will tell you next week after I pick up $10M from lotto of where I have actually invested it:)

[percy]

I was brushing up on a little bit of Buffet today and thought I'd play a little theoretical exercise this weekend. I have my answer already but will post that on Monday.


Congratulations, you just inherited one million dollars and there are just two conditions. Its to be held in trust for you and all dividends received reinvested and you can't touch it for 10 years. You can only choose one company to invest the full amount into. Which company do you choose and why ?
Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

[Joshuatree]

heehee, great little promo you've snuck in there percy:mellow:

[percy]

heehee, great little promo you've snuck in there percy:mellow:

Read well .........................................
Could not help myself..!......lol.

[h2so4]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

What's an inheritance.....LOL

[thestg]

My $1m would all go on OCA.
Forecast yields are 2018 3.8%, 2019 4.36% 2020 5.07%.
At those rates over 10 years I would expect a total yield of 87%
Would expect SP to be at least $3.30 in 10 years (based on 6% yield) so total return of approx. $4m+

[Baa_Baa]

Seeing RYM is leading the way in this discussion you might be interested in how the share price has performed over time

Table shows multi year returns from different starting years (June)

Over 10 years great returns but sometimes you have to put up with some not so good periods.

One thing table highlights is that there are certain times when returns are below average (like being “richly priced”) ....and vice versa

Maybe, just maybe, now is one of those ‘richly priced’ times ....who knows ...but even if so 10 year returns should be OK if you last the time.

With respect because I know you know this, but ex-dividend share price analysis is imho not an accurate representation of investment 'returns'.

A buy and hold strategy over 10 years must take into account accumulated dividends, then it gets complicated (i.e. assumptions are required) as to whether the dividends are re-invested in the head-share or elsewhere and what the tax paid is and ergo overall return over the 10-years is.

In the scenario Beagle has laid out, I'm not a fan of RYM as 'the single investment' over 10years, I think its commercial model could be vulnerable to regulation in the future (like in Australia). A good company in a portfolio, but not imo the best if limited to one choice.

I'd pick an utterly boring company in an entrenched industry that consistently makes obscene profits .. ah ha, that'd be a bank, so lets say ANZ is my pick.

:)

[Bobdn]

With respect because I know you know this, but ex-dividend share price analysis is imho not an accurate representation of investment 'returns'.

A buy and hold strategy over 10 years must take into account accumulated dividends, then it gets complicated (i.e. assumptions are required) as to whether the dividends are re-invested in the head-share or elsewhere and what the tax paid is and ergo overall return over the 10-years is.

In the scenario Beagle has laid out, I'm not a fan of RYM as 'the single investment' over 10years, I think its commercial model could be vulnerable to regulation in the future (like in Australia). A good company in a portfolio, but not imo the best if limited to one choice.

I'd pick an utterly boring company in an entrenched industry that consistently makes obscene profits .. ah ha, that'd be a bank, so lets say ANZ is my pick.

:)

ANZ's return on equity is pretty poor, actually. I know the MSM loves to spread fake news about bank profits, the truth is of course different.

ANZ has probably been one of my worst investments over the last few years, not that I'm complaining and I'm still holding.

Anyway, my pick would be something like BHP. It does a bit of everything on the commodities front. Oil will be in great demand for years to come and when EVs eventually take over, copper will make us even more money.

[bull....]

Buy more amazon , why it be the biggest company on the planet soon. disc own

[Leftfield]

Good challenge Beagle

My response is based on the key assumption that you are referrring to only NZX listed companies.

On that assumption, I would be looking at companies with a strong International bias, so they are not only dependant on the NZ economy.

I would be looking at sectors where growth is likely to be above the average NZX growth. I would also be looking at companies with a ‘strong moat’ or IP not easily duplicated. Other Buffet style factors would be proven experienced management, with strong balance sheet and EPS growth.

I’m less fussed by dividend growth.

That said, I’ve had to rule out XRO ( no longer NZX.) Other NZ companies I like with a good international basis that would meet my criteria are; FPH, ATM, RYM, THL.

In the end my choice would be ATM. Food is such an essential commodity and I very much like that ATM’s production and marketing are so internationally diverse and de-risked with a strong moat and loyalty as its basis. I also like that NZ has a growing range of Free Trade agreements that protect us from Trump style follies. ATM has low capital supply/manufacturing partnerships in key markets such as NZ, Aus, UK and USA. To my mind it has the potential to become a future Nestle or Cocoa-Cola with a strong healthy diary bias.

Let’s just hope it is as healthy for my $1m inheritance!

[hardt]

By 2028 Fannie Mae WILL BE released from conservatorship.

I change my mind from IFT to FNMA... 10+ bagger minimum if re-capped into a semi-stable market.

[Beagle]

Good challenge Beagle

My response is based on the key assumption that you are referrring to only NZX listed companies.




Thanks. Opps, yes I should have provided more clarity around that. The intention was is that it must be one NZX listed company and that is one company only, i.e. excludes listed investment funds that invest in a number of other companies. IFT not sure ? Choose if you like it :) Lets also assume for the purposes of this challenge that the net result in 10 years time makes a material difference to one's life. Wealthy people should feel free to add as many zero's to the $1,000,000 to make the challenge relevant and material as appropriate. i.e. pick one company you believe you can really trust to build wealth over time.

[GTM 3442]

Seeka or Scales, probably Seeka.

[kiora]

IFT:Compound 18 % return,$5,604,410.77 after 10 years

[Arbroath]

I'm surprised there is no love for Freightways with the objective Beagle set out. FRE has delivered 15% per annum total shareholder return over the last 10 years.

- conservative balance sheet
- good and growing dividends around 5-6% gross yield
- delivers GDP growth +2/3% which compounds nicely over time
- very low odds of any regulatory intrusion
- benefits from online retail trends

seems a good risk adjusted return to me if you're committing to only one company.

[Beagle]

Compound interest has been described as the eighth wonder of the world.
For the benefit of the young ones and those of us getting on a little but still with time to make a serious difference to the level of comfort in our retirement if you can find an investment that will grow earnings or give you a net return after tax of 10% per annum and you reinvest all proceeds after 10 years that $1m will become $2.59m, after 15 years $4.17m and after 20 years $6.73m.

Warren Buffet reckons you only need a few good idea's to get really rich and I think he's right because after 30 years that $1m compounded at 10% per annum gives $17.5m.

No question the tax working group currently contemplating options presents as a regulatory risk but whatever they regulate could just as easily be overturned by a more business friendly government. Currently a net 44% of business's think business conditions will deteriorate, a shocking statistic not seen since the depths of the GFC.

There's been some really good idea's put forward in this thread. Companies including among others like Port of Tauranga, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, Infratil, Frieghtways, Mainfrieght all make a good case for themselves in my opinion.

My pick however is Ryman. The best guide to the future in my opinion is the past and Rym have built a stellar reputation for consistent growth but perhaps even more than that they have built a stellar reputation for being the brand of choice and as we head into the tsunami of baby boomers looking for a comfortable place to spend their latter years its the brand value of Rym that sets it apart in my view. In deciding on Rym I excluded all companies that haven't been listed for at least 10 years. Rym listed in 1999 at $1.35 if my memory serves me correctly. They closed the week at $12 and had a five for one share split a number of years ago so adjusted this is $ 60. 44.5 times your money in 19 years.

No doubt there's many other fine alternatives so no right or wrong answers but to my way of thinking its a classic bottom drawer buy and forget about it kind of stock. I've been pontificating about whether its worth $12 or only $11 based on my observed long term average PE. It won't matter 10 or 20 years from now will it :)

SUM other stocks enjoy the same tax efficient model and are off to a good start in building wealth for their shareholders too. I think the business model as it currently stands for these companies and the demographics make for a compelling investment case.

[kiora]

Two points well said
1)The effect of compounding
2)Don't pontificate when your gut says its a screaming buy FOR THE LONG term,the price doesn't matter

[bohemian]

For one Australian company which is easier than US companies for Kiwis to hold. The one and only one for the next 10 years, CSL.

[troyvdh]

Rym...
Xro
PFI....property company with best returns of any property entity listed over past 20 years...

[JBmurc]

without a doubt one of the banks Westpac or ANZ

Printing FAT profits for decades and will continue to streamline operations lowering costs until we only have ATMs - mobile managers- etc

Strong yield

[JBmurc]

without a doubt one of the banks Westpac or ANZ

Printing FAT profits for decades and will continue to streamline operations lowering costs until we only have ATMs - mobile managers- etc

Strong yield

Protected by the Govt.. we all remember GFC where you could short everything but financial companies... then of course if they need more cash TAX payers will bailout

[Snoopy]

The intention was is that it must be one NZX listed company and that is one company only, i.e. excludes listed investment funds that invest in a number of other companies. IFT not sure ? Choose if you like it :)

Lets also assume for the purposes of this challenge that the net result in 10 years time makes a material difference to one's life. Wealthy people should feel free to add as many zero's to the $1,000,000 to make the challenge relevant and material as appropriate. i.e. pick one company you believe you can really trust to build wealth over time.


I would guess that the nature of this forum is self selecting for people who are more adept at planning for their retirement than average. So the idea of an extra $1m on top of what you have planned, with no return at all after investing for ten years, could provide much selective enjoyment enhancement to whatever retirement plans you had before the $1m inheritance turned up. That means I think there is sound logic in not going for 'maximum growth' (and the associated risk) and looking at a more established company that will likely provide a lower (but still good) return but with less risk. So that means picking something from the NZX50.

I am a great believer in ignoring any current trend (and avoiding the overpriced share prices associated with those) and looking for sound companies that fly a bit below the headlines. I am also a believer in 'reversion to the mean', in the sense that sound forgotten companies will eventually get their day in the sun. My pick is therefore 'Sky City Entertainment' (SKC), a share that has increased in price from around $3 to $4 over the last ten years, an investment I hold, and an investment that has been disappointing over the last ten years (what happened to ex CEO Nigel Morrison's $10 target?).

The thing I like about SKC is as follows:

1/ They operate as a legislated monopoly in the all markets they participate in.
2/ They are plugged into NZ's largest industry (tourism), but also have a strong domestic customer base for when tourism has a cyclical downturn.
3/ The full effects of synergies with the NZ Convention Centre, once commissioned, and the enhancements to the Adelaide Casino should be game changers.
4/ The America's Cup provided a big boost to Sky City when it was last held in Auckland, and I expect this to happen again. AND

5/ The current share price offers fair value based on 'historical earnings' which I expect to improve going forwards.

I don't expect SKC will be the best performer on the NZX over the next ten years. But I do expect that putting your million dollar inheritance into SKC and locking it up for ten years would be a sound gamble.

SNOOPY

P.S. 'Sin warriors' should note that Sky City can ban you from entering their premises if you own up to having a gambling problem (no pubs with pokies will do that). I intend to ask if this practice can be extended to their 'buffet restaurants' where Mr and Mrs Beagle admit to being responsible for ongoing shareholder losses due to continual overfilling of their respective dog bowls!

[couta1]

Snoopy, that's the only company in the NZX50 I refuse to invest in. PS-Im sure many punters thought they would make their million dollars there but instead ended up destitute.

[stoploss]

Snoopy how can you call it a monopoly when every corner pub has pokies . They are in the gambling business and plenty of outlets for the punters money. Online gaming / punting is massive .

[Snoopy]

Snoopy, that's the only company in the NZX50 I refuse to invest in. PS-Im sure many punters thought they would make their million dollars there but instead ended up destitute.


Couta, the business model at SKC is not to make people destitute. Bankrupting your customers is not a sound business growth strategy. There are more 'brakes' on gambling at SKC than in any pub or TAB. Plus, you have to make a deliberate decision to go downtown and visit SKC. There isn't one in your local suburban shopping area. Now, I don't doubt that some people have got into trouble gambling at SKC. But I am sure there are many many more that spent their money on a good night out at SKC and went home happy (even if they lost a modest amount of money). The key to it is, 'don't gamble more money than you can afford to lose'.

I think that if SKC closed all their casinos tomorrow, the gambling addicts would have no trouble becoming destitute by other means.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Snoopy how can you call it a monopoly when every corner pub has pokies . They are in the gambling business and plenty of outlets for the punters money. Online gaming / punting is massive.


Pokies do not define a Casino 'stoploss'. The monopoly is the 'casino licence'. No one else can serve 'high rollers' or 'lower rollers' on gambling tables. In NZ, pokies outside of casinos are now shrinking in number, strengthening Sky City's position in general. Of course where pokies were greatly increased in number in the Northern Territory, the Sky City Casino there in Darwin was hit badly. But there is no sign of that happening in New Zealand, or Adelaide.

SNOOPY

[Leftfield]

Snoopy, that's the only company in the NZX50 I refuse to invest in. PS-Im sure many punters thought they would make their million dollars there but instead ended up destitute.

Same here Couta... thoroughly agree.

[Snoopy]

Same here Couta... thoroughly agree.


I don't wish to turn this thread into a treatise on gambling in general and Sky City in particular. I know there are forum members out there with strong views on this topic. And I don't expect any more posting on my part will convince them that Sky City is anything more than a den of sin.

Yet on the positive side of the ledger there are a couple of things that potential shareholders and moral crusaders should know about though.

1/ The ’20 by 2020’ ($20 per hour) initiative will see SKYCITY increase the hourly rate of its lowest-paid employees by 21 per cent over the three years, compared to the official Statutory Minimum Wage of $16.50 as of 1 April 2018. SKYCITY is the first major listed New Zealand company to commit to a $20-an-hour minimum wage.

2/ The National Convention Centre that Sky City are building in Auckland will cost them $430m, and they have negotiated a similar sized contribution from Fletcher Building. That means an $800m project for Auckland at no financial cost to the taxpayer or ratepayer. Even these days, $800m can go a long way to alleviating poverty in Auckland.

SNOOPY

[Brain]

This has been a popular thread. Well done Mr Beagle.
My approach to this would be a tad different to others. Having never received an inheritance to date and all the dosh I have accumulated has been hard earned and honestly acquired I would not particularly welcome such an inheritance because I take pride in calling myself a self made cat.

So I would invest the money in an outsider - a long shot. Hopefully the returns would be substantial and at the end of the 10 years I would be able to start up a very substantial Charity.

My Long Shot would be either NTL where I may be competing with the tea lady or PLX where my main competition could be Scooby Doo. On the basis that a million bucks would not push up the share price too much and after the 10 year period yields a great return I would hopefully be able to improve some lives by the way of a well funded charity.

That at would make me a very happy cat.

[Leftfield]

All cool snoopy.... if you don't get it, you don't get it.

Ethical investing is a personal choice, it's one that makes me sleep well at night, even if it makes no financial sense to some.

On with the competition.

[winner69]

This has been a popular thread. Well done Mr Beagle.
My approach to this would be a tad different to others. Having never received an inheritance to date and all the dosh I have accumulated has been hard earned and honestly acquired I would not particularly welcome such an inheritance because I take pride in calling myself a self made cat.

So I would invest the money in an outsider - a long shot. Hopefully the returns would be substantial and at the end of the 10 years I would be ableism to start up a very substantial Charity.

My Long Shot would be either NTL where I may be competing with the tea lady or PLX where my main competition could be Scooby Doo. On the basis that a million8uu bucks would not push up the share price too much and after the 10 year period yields a great return I would hopefully be able to improve some lives by the way of a well funded charity.

That at would make me a very happy cat.

Great sentiment Brain

So would it be NTL or PLX?

Of the two I’d go NTL ....even though about as sinful as SKC

[Filthy]

good posts snoopy - thanks.
perhaps RBD has ruined more lives with unhealthy food than SKC has with gambling debts?
anyway, back to the thread
my pick would be IFT (because of its diversification & track record)
other 'safe' picks would be VHP & AIA (yes the latter is expensive, but 'current price' does not matter so much over the long-term)
given the chance, I doubt anyone on this forum would invest in 'just one' company though..... lol

[Brain]

Great sentiment Brain

So would it be NTL or PLX?

Of the two I’d go NTL ....even though about as sinful as SKC

Ntl would be the better bet. It would be hard to compete with Scooby Doo’s deep pockets

[Beagle]

'Sin warriors' should note that Sky City can ban you from entering their premises if you own up to having a gambling problem (no pubs with pokies will do that). I intend to ask if this practice can be extended to their 'buffet restaurants' where Mr and Mrs Beagle admit to being responsible for ongoing shareholder losses due to continual overfilling of their respective dog bowls!

LOL thanks...a good bit of humor to start the week. You're safe for the next couple of months as Mrs Beagle is getting some very expensive implants done and is not feeling very "chewey" at present :) The Beagle household is eating a lot of soup at present...just as well its winter.

Here's why I choose 10% compounding yesterday instead of 15%. RYM's stated goal is to grow underlying earnings 15% per annum and they've achieved that over the long term but have missed in the last two years, 12% in 2017 and 14% in 2018. In the last 20 or so years we've seen considerable expansion in house prices at vastly greater than the inflation rate and the listed retirement companies have benefited from that. N.Z's real estate on a multiple of average Kiwi's earnings is now amongst the most expensive in the world so going forward I think its more prudent to plan on a more modest growth rate.

I guess the thing I wanted to reinforce to myself is the profound wisdom of investing in companies that will grow strongly and simply keep holding them for the long term. Sometimes, and I am certainly as guilty as anyone else here and possibly more so, (perhaps this is an occupational hazard), I get bogged down into trying to assess fair value to within a tight range and take action based on under or over valuation when perhaps more time should be spent thinking about the long game. In recent times I've spent a bit of time vision casting about where I believe XYZ company will be in 5 years time. I struggle to try and think 10 years out but that's what Warren Buffet does so that's the next trick for this old dog to learn :)

[Joshuatree]

NTL would be perfect for anyone with Dementia (rinse and repeat for many years?)imo, the quality of which is not even in the gambling stocks sector. ideal for people who want to make $1million and start with $10 million;). Now what did i just say.....?......

[Aaron]

HBL, or TRA,or MEL or GNE,or EBO.or POT,or MFT,and or as Couta1, RYM..

Hey Percy, you have MEL & GNE why not MCY or CEN?

[winner69]

Somebody mentioned compounding the eighth wonder of the world ...and reinvesting divies boosts returns heaps

Lets say our $1,00m worth of shares grow consistently at 10% pa and we collect a 5% divie along the way and we reinvest that divie into our holding. Essentially assumes earnings will grow at 10% and the divie increases as earnings grow.


At the end of the 10 years we will have about $4.0m (assuming we didn’t spend the divies)

If we had not reinvested our divies we would have $3.4m

Reinvesting the divies gives returns a decent boost eh

No gurantee numbers are right ...indicative only

Also highlights why the NZX50 outperforms the world with divies counted and reinvested

[traineeinvestor]

Somebody mentioned compounding the eighth wonder of the world ...and reinvesting divies boosts returns heaps

Lets say our $1,00m worth of shares grow consistently at 10% pa and we collect a 5% divie along the way and we reinvest that divie into our holding. Essentially assumes earnings will grow at 10% and the divie increases as earnings grow.


At the end of the 10 years we will have about $4.0m (assuming we didn’t spend the divies)

If we had not reinvested our divies we would have $3.4m

Reinvesting the divies gives returns a decent boost eh

No gurantee numbers are right ...indicative only

Also highlights why the NZX50 outperforms the world with divies counted and reinvested

There's a well written article on the contribution of dividends to total return here: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/402537/dividends-true-contribution-to-total-return-may-surprise-you

Short version: in general, dividends' contribution to total return increases over longer time periods but there is considerable variation around this for individual stocks (which should not come as a surprise). See figure 3.

I haven't read a study focused on NZ (or Australian) stocks but would expect dividends to make up an even higher percentage of total return given our higher dividend yields.

[CD_CHCH]

My pick from the NZ listed companies would be OCA - plenty of scope to grow over the next 10 years, good ability to pay ongoing dividends, and with an ageing population a ready supply of consumers for their services.

If money was no object and I was already completely financially secure I would be tempted to take a punt on a company like BLT - I've used the product and it is extremely effective, I feel that natural health products have a big future ahead of them and BLT could be very successful if they can sort out their management and marketing.

[Beagle]

OCA just hit an all time high. Plenty of love for the sector with SUM currently trading at an all time high as well and RYM, MET and ARV trading within a few cents of all time high's.

[peat]

I'd be pretty conservative and put it in Mainfreight, or Ryman, or Ebos.
With a 10 year blind time frame I'd be prepared to pay for quality with a stronger expectation that it would stick around and continue to perform at least adequately and hopefully a lot better.
You need to be sure that it can meet challenges, and adapt. If it hasnt proven that - the risk is a lot higher it wont be around in 10 years. Hence OCA not a go for me in a blind trust like situation.

[Yoda]

My pick from the NZ listed companies would be OCA - plenty of scope to grow over the next 10 years, good ability to pay ongoing dividends, and with an ageing population a ready supply of consumers for their services.

If money was no object and I was already completely financially secure I would be tempted to take a punt on a company like BLT - I've used the product and it is extremely effective, I feel that natural health products have a big future ahead of them and BLT could be very successful if they can sort out their management and marketing.

It seems to me companies that deal in preventative medicine, BLT, PIL or testing like PEB get aggressively put in the sights of large drug companies who get them discredited and eventually wiped out. Prevention does not make money. Big pharma want us all on 5 pills a day and a cure for cancer will never come, too much money to loose.... Just sayin...
so personally Beagle, i wouldnt put my money there.
personally...THL SUM. or. ERD but that would be a punt.

[Baa_Baa]

The criteria is quite tricky, and the circumstances although possible for some, is unlikely for many? To have a $1m inheritance and be forced to invest it in one single company in the NZX for 10 years and not touch it.

Hmmm, I'm not sure that fits the investing strategy norms for most here but I could be wrong about that. Challenging for sure, as the multiple picks and uncertainty about a final decision for many posters seems to indicate.

I still reckon a fat bank, entrenched, making obscene profits with almost unlimited resources to defend their position and ensure their profitable longevity is a decent choice, and of them ANZ is the biggest. So I'm not changing my mind, even though I don't hold ANZ in my real portfolio.

The criteria imho also lends itself to speculative choices but 10 years is a long time and specs come and go, win big or lose everything, or make a survivable choice that lasts the distance and wins the comp.

Fortunately Beagle who started this will presumably be recording all these picks and reporting on it from time to time over the next ten years so that we know who wins in the end??

Maybe I'll buy a few ANZ and back myself. Or maybe not, I'm not sure that I wouldn't meddle in the share over a 10 year period. I hate capital losses, have most-times the skills to be nimble and enjoy SP upside while sometimes coinciding with dividends payouts (or not) but avoiding capital losses. Banks move around a lot. It's a weird feeling choosing something that doesn't fit ones MO or normal strategy.

This is messing with my mind.

[Raz]

Don't let it mess with you mind Baa Baa invest in Raz corp..only one person really going for wealth here not passively :-)

[stoploss]

The criteria is quite tricky, and the circumstances although possible for some, is unlikely for many? To have a $1m inheritance and be forced to invest it in one single company in the NZX for 10 years and not touch it.

Hmmm, I'm not sure that fits the investing strategy norms for most here but I could be wrong about that. Challenging for sure, as the multiple picks and uncertainty about a final decision for many posters seems to indicate.

I still reckon a fat bank, entrenched, making obscene profits with almost unlimited resources to defend their position and ensure their profitable longevity is a decent choice, and of them ANZ is the biggest. So I'm not changing my mind, even though I don't hold ANZ in my real portfolio.

The criteria imho also lends itself to speculative choices but 10 years is a long time and specs come and go, win big or lose everything, or make a survivable choice that lasts the distance and wins the comp.

Fortunately Beagle who started this will presumably be recording all these picks and reporting on it from time to time over the next ten years so that we know who wins in the end??

Maybe I'll buy a few ANZ and back myself. Or maybe not, I'm not sure that I wouldn't meddle in the share over a 10 year period. I hate capital losses, have most-times the skills to be nimble and enjoy SP upside while sometimes coinciding with dividends payouts (or not) but avoiding capital losses. Banks move around a lot. It's a weird feeling choosing something that doesn't fit ones MO or normal strategy.

This is messing with my mind.

On what basis is ANZ the biggest ?
Approx $ AUD MCAP
CBA 128 Bio
WBC 99 Bio
ANZ 82 Bio
NAB 74 Bio
Macq 41 Bio
Suncorp 19 Bio

[peat]

On what basis is ANZ the biggest ?

They're the biggest in NZ is the only explanation I can think of :cool:

[janner]

Don't let it mess with you mind Baa Baa invest in Raz corp..only one person really going for wealth here not passively :-)
How doe's one do that ???????




















how doe's

[glennj]

An interesting concept that would unlikely happen though I do know a guy who sold his business and put most of the proceeds in to just one listed stock (several million dollars worth). I went back thru my NZ stocks held ten years ago that are still held today to see how they have performed over the decade on a capital gain plus net dividend yield basis. My best performers in this category with the highest IRR's for the decade are South Port, Restaurant Brands and Ebos. Would I be happy to lock a million dollars in to one of these three for another ten years? Yes, quite possibly!

[bull....]

normally trade but i discovered a few yrs ago when contacted by old address owner i still owned 100 shares in micheal hill (entered the wrong amount when sold obviously lol ) brought in 1995 lol my 10c divs have now increased to over $2 havent sold as the brokerage is to much and its getting harder now to find anything to spend my divs on.

[silu]

Hmm some very interesting replies. If someone would have asked me 10 years ago I would have said AIA or POT. Now with macro environments changing I'd go for SUM or RYM (watch those baby boomers with multiple properties retire) or IFT (I like their change in investment approach). However if these were my only million and I'd have nothing else I would invest it in government bonds. We seem to be in bubble territory and I'm not sure that the next 10 years is enough for that money to survive the crash and recovery.

[LAC]

RYM and SUM is where I would leave the million bux. $12.05 and $7.85. Would like to visit this thread in 10 years time and see how things have changed or not changed.

[Raz]

Hmm some very interesting replies. If someone would have asked me 10 years ago I would have said AIA or POT. Now with macro environments changing I'd go for SUM or RYM (watch those baby boomers with multiple properties retire) or IFT (I like their change in investment approach). However if these were my only million and I'd have nothing else I would invest it in government bonds. We seem to be in bubble territory and I'm not sure that the next 10 years is enough for that money to survive the crash and recovery.

I went with RYM however I can see regulatory change on the horizon for the rest home care sector in the next ten years unless they lobby very well. Being involved with multiple substantial businesses...I really think the life cycle of business was a lot more certain in the past ten years rather than what we face today going forward the next decade. If you talk to VCs the yard stick for ROI has moved from 25% to 35% over the past ten years. That is a reflection of life cycle of a business model.

[Beagle]

So.....now that we all have our favorite stock that we can trust the question becomes what are we going to do about it ? Disc: Even though I think its very expensive I bought some Rym last week and plan on buying small further stakes every second month for the rest of this year and possibly into 2019. (Averaging my re-entry price, I have done well out of Rym in the past but its time to make my past my future again). SUM other stocks are also likely to come in for top-up's for long term hold.

[h2so4]

Hmm some very interesting replies. If someone would have asked me 10 years ago I would have said AIA or POT. Now with macro environments changing I'd go for SUM or RYM (watch those baby boomers with multiple properties retire) or IFT (I like their change in investment approach). However if these were my only million and I'd have nothing else I would invest it in government bonds. We seem to be in bubble territory and I'm not sure that the next 10 years is enough for that money to survive the crash and recovery.

There was one criteria not stipulated and that was the date from which the 10 years started so maybe you could wait until after 'the crash'.

[silu]

There was one criteria not stipulated and that was the date from which the 10 years started so maybe you could wait until after 'the crash'.

Good point. For the sake of this exercise I'd hold on to it in a term deposit and buy after, and lets use less dramatic language, the correction.

[h2so4]

Good point. For the sake of this exercise I'd hold on to it in a term deposit and buy after, and lets use less dramatic language, the correction.

'The correction' yes of course....LOL

[winner69]

How doe's one do that ???????





on 0800 7293863

[Ggcc]

RYM and SUM is where I would leave the million bux. $12.05 and $7.85. Would like to visit this thread in 10 years time and see how things have changed or not changed.
Summerset surpassing Rymans sp. They will never catch up to Rymans total value though. Both companies are great by the way.

[LAC]

Summerset surpassing Rymans sp. They will never catch up to Rymans total value though. Both companies are great by the way.
I sure wouldnt mind SUM sp catching up with RYM, as I sold a few of RYM a few months ago in favour of SUM.

[traineeinvestor]

Interesting (and useful) thread. If I've totalled the votes of those who voted for a single NZX listed company correctly, RYM beats out IFT as the most popular choice with each of SUM, POT, OCA, ANZ and ATM being the only other companies receiving more than one nomination. FRE, SKC, MMH, PAZ and XRO got one vote each.

Although mentioned in posts, I don't think anyone picked AIA or MFT as their single investment which I found a little surprising.

[Joshuatree]

PAZ is an infiltrator and doesn't count!:eek2::D

[percy]

PAZ is an infiltrator and doesn't count!:eek2::D

"Ignore at your own peril."...…………………….lol.

[peat]

Although mentioned in posts, I don't think anyone picked AIA or MFT as their single investment which I found a little surprising.

I did mention MFT first

I'd be pretty conservative and put it in Mainfreight, or Ryman, or Ebos.

[Joshuatree]

Thats three!

[bull....]

ift is the only one i see at these inflated prices in the market as worth a punt for 10yrs mainly because its just started a new growth phase. anyway normal people wouldnt put 1m into 1 stock unless they had many millions more to invest as well.

[Ggcc]

ift is the only one i see at these inflated prices in the market as worth a punt for 10yrs mainly because its just started a new growth phase. anyway normal people wouldnt put 1m into 1 stock unless they had many millions more to invest as well.
That is correct l, because no one would put the full one million into one stock. Still a lovely survey and I would love to see this thread in 10 years time and hear from people on this thread who advised.

[peat]

Thats three!

haha yeh it is wow - numeracy !

the outcome becomes a bit random with only one, even if that is part of the criteria.

[h2so4]

That is correct l, because no one would put the full one million into one stock. Still a lovely survey and I would love to see this thread in 10 years time and hear from people on this thread who advised.

Whatever amount you put in it would be nice to have one share you could walk away from for 10 years.

[kiora]

That is correct l, because no one would put the full one million into one stock. Still a lovely survey and I would love to see this thread in 10 years time and hear from people on this thread who advised.
Why not? Its on its way there with quite a bit of leverage :)

[lissica]

Interesting thread, probably best answered with shares I've held for 15yrs, 11yrs, 8yrs and 7yrs respectively- FRE, MFT, IFT and RYM. I'd keep them all for another 10yrs. Of the four, I'd choose MFT, although it's my smallest holding.

[winner69]

I’ve held RBD for about 10 years .....amazing eh. No idea what the return has been but from about $1 to $8 it must have been pretty good. But selecting one stock for the next ten years it wouldn’t be RBD

I have had SUM for about 6 years and done very well. My inheritance would go into more SUM for the next 10 years

[Jay]

I've had FRE for just over 5 years - approx 80% gain + Dividends.
Still think they should continue to do well with more online shopping as time goes on - picked SUM though, better propects as mentioned

[kiora]

Interesting choice.Will Ryman have same headwinds in Australia?
RetireAustralia Industry headwinds sees lower rate of resales, long-term demographic tailwinds remain Financial • Underlying profit A$34.5 million, a decrease from A$59.1 million in FY17 with key drivers: - Resales cashflow down from A$36.4 million to A$31.1 million, consistent with lower resale volumes across the sector as a result of current industry headwinds - Lower development margin in FY18 (A$8.3 million vs A$14.9 million) due to a lower volume of new units sold (51 vs 105), partially offset by a higher average sale price ($621.6k vs $571.5k)
http://www.4-traders.com/RYMAN-HEALTHCARE-LTD-6492072/financials/
http://www.4-traders.com/INFRATIL-LTD-6494631/financials/

[voltage]

I am also interested why AIA has not been chosen, diverse income, moat like business, surely it is a standout!

[Beagle]

I am also interested why AIA has not been chosen, diverse income, moat like business, surely it is a standout!

Regulatory risk for AIA. Airlines industry group are currently bleating louder than lambs lost from their mothers about AIA's excess monopolistic return on investments. Growth has slowed lately but the PE is still very high. I'd have quite SUM number of companies ahead of them but from a moat perspective and long term international visitor arrivals growth point of view I can certainly see where you're coming from.

[Joshuatree]

I would think SUM,RYM etc are equally prone to regulatory risk. POT imo is least likely to have risk in this area imo but happy for a robust debate.

[voltage]

is RYM the rolls royce of the retirement sector, or is SUM just as good? Also, looking long term 10years plus is AIA a better moat than POT?

[Snoopy]

Regulatory risk for AIA. Airlines industry group are currently bleating louder than lambs lost from their mothers about AIA's excess monopolistic return on investments. Growth has slowed lately but the PE is still very high.


The reason I favour SKC over AIA (comparable because they are both plugged into the tourism sector) is that with the former, the next decade's capital expenditure is either done or at least underway and budgeted for. Who knows how much the new terminals and second runway at AIA will end up costing?

SNOOPY

[winner69]

The reason I favour SKC over AIA (comparable because they are both plugged into the tourism sector) is that with the former, the next decade's capital expenditure is either done or at least underway and budgeted for. Who knows how much the new terminals and second runway at AIA will end up costing?

SNOOPY

Stolwyk was a much loved poster of years ago - he always said that AIA and SKC were twins ...fortunes intertwined as he said.

Foundation shares in his portfolio

[Beagle]

The reason I favour SKC over AIA (comparable because they are both plugged into the tourism sector) is that with the former, the next decade's capital expenditure is either done or at least underway and budgeted for. Who knows how much the new terminals and second runway at AIA will end up costing?

SNOOPY

Fair enough Snoopy but this hound has great trouble accepting it on his conscience the social harm SKC does. Even their buffet's are bad for you lol

[bull....]

Stolwyk was a much loved poster of years ago - he always said that AIA and SKC were twins ...fortunes intertwined as he said.

Foundation shares in his portfolio

theres a name from the old days , clever fella that stolwyk was

[silu]

theres a name from the old days , clever fella that stolwyk was

I should have learned more from him but I was young and thought I knew everything better and he was a coot. Sometimes age does put some sense in one's brain.

[percy]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

Well the $1mil has grown to $1,857,142 and looks "well positioned."

[pg0220]

Berkshire's basic criteria


HLG? Excpet the criterion 1 :eek2:

[NeverQuestion]

CRP or AOR

[whatsup]

Well the $1mil has grown to $1,857,142 and looks "well positioned."

After reading the latest ann ( Aprils ) I think that at long last PAZ could be on the right track now, the next financial ann will be interesting reading Im picking.

[percy]

After reading the latest ann ( Aprils ) I think that at long last PAZ could be on the right track now, the next financial ann will be interesting reading Im picking.

The result to 31st December and their annual report are at www.usx.co.nz
The business has certainly been de-risked, with three three major operations,extraction,freeze drying and bone grinding.
The balance sheet is strong,skill management added ,and a very bright out look.I will learn more at their agm in May.

[whatsup]

The result to 31st December and their annual report are at www.usx.co.nz
The business has certainly been de-risked, with three three major operations,extraction,freeze drying and bone grinding.
The balance sheet is strong,skill management added ,and a very bright out look.I will learn more at their agm in May.

Where will that be Ch-Ch ?

[percy]

Where will that be Ch-Ch ?

I would expect so.
As soon as I know the date I will post it either here on or PAZ thread .

[ratkin]

IFT They have a good range of investments meaning that although you are investing in just One stock your eggs are not in such a small basket as with some of the others which have more company specific risk.

Unlike most other NZ stocks the current price is not overly stretched, and they have some great growth potential in their portfolio yet are not valued as a growth stock.

It all the rage now, not the bargain it was a year ago though, still a great hold, but market has woken up to it. up around 35% with divs? or something like that.

[Yoda]

I would have to go for MFT.. 1000% in the last 10 yrs

[percy]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

Above posted 23-06-2018.
PAZ share price at that date was 7 cents.
So in 11 months the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2mil.
I guess in another 11 months to 1 years time it will be $4 mil.
And that is what is known as "well positioned".

[Beagle]

if you don't "fly business class" your kids will. You might as well enjoy some of your money Percy otherwise your kids will waste it for you in due course.

[RupertBear]

Above posted 23-06-2018.
PAZ share price at that date was 7 cents.
So in 11 months the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2mil.
I guess in another 11 months to 1 years time it will be $4 mil.
And that is what is known as "well positioned".

WOW! Well done Percy. You are certainly a very savvy invester! Can I ask please how does one buy shares on the NZ Unlisted market?

[minimoke]

WOW! Well done Percy. You are certainly a very savey invester! Can I ask please how does one buy shares on the NZ Unlisted market?
I just filled out a form with FCNZ, scanned it sent it back and an hour later got them to place a bid. Pretty quick - you can see your bid in next to no time.

[percy]

WOW! Well done Percy. You are certainly a very savvy invester! Can I ask please how does one buy shares on the NZ Unlisted market?

CAREFULLY...!!!
On sharetrader go to Unlisted,then PAZ thread, and you will note I brought a very small holding in PAZ years ago.As I have learnt more about the company through research, both by phoning the company and attending their agms ,I have steadily added to our holdings.The outlook section of their latest annual report,together with their recent agm presentation,[both on USX site] will give you a better understanding of the business and their objectives.

Unlisted shares like PAZ, are very illiquid.Very few announcements etc,yet there are excellent companies such as Rural Equities,Rangatira and Skyline Enterprises on USX trading platform.
Go to www.usx.co.nz,then investors,then brokers and you will see which brokers trade on USX.

[RupertBear]

CAREFULLY...!!!
On sharetrader go to Unlisted,then PAZ thread, and you will note I brought a very small holding in PAZ years ago.As I have learnt more about the company through research, both by phoning the company and attending their agms ,I have steadily added to our holdings.The outlook section of their latest annual report,together with their recent agm presentation,[both on USX site] will give you a better understanding of the business and their objectives.

Unlisted shares like PAZ, are very illiquid.Very few announcements etc,yet there are excellent companies such as Rural Equities,Rangatira and Skyline Enterprises on USX trading platform.
Go to www.usx.co.nz,then (http://www.usx.co.nz,then) investors,then brokers and you will see which brokers trade on USX.

Thank you Percy

[Baa_Baa]

Remember USX has next to no rules, it's like the wild west gold rush, you could strike gold or go bust. But as Perky says, there's some solid companies and some with great growth potential, if you can stomach the illiquidity and minimal disclosure.

[RupertBear]

Remember USX has next to no rules, it's like the wild west gold rush, you could strike gold or go bust. But as Perky says, there's some solid companies and some with great growth potential, if you can stomach the illiquidity and minimal disclosure.

Might not be the best place for a novice Bear to play perhaps. Think Perky Percy has a nice ring to it Baa Baa :D

[Baa_Baa]

Might not be the best place for a novice Bear to play perhaps. Think Perky Percy has a nice ring to it Baa Baa :D

If you think about it, the one thing percy says over and over again is [paraphrased] 'do your research'.

One can't deny him the kudos for that as it is the most fundamental aspect of investing, truely understanding what you're putting your money into, and yet imo so few really bother to do it.

We are not buying or selling someone's opinion on an internet discussion group, we are putting our hard earned $ to work in some company that we believe in because we know enough to believe in it and that will make us handsome rewards as its' investors, or gets us out when it isn't doing what we expect it to do.

USX provides another vehicle to invest, but just that bit more challenging to understand as it requires so much less disclosure by the company, which makes understanding it that much more difficult. However it's not to be ignored, if you have the wherewithal to apply the fortitude in doing what percy says, know the company, decide, invest or not, stay the course, until it changes, then get out.

Is that a fair summary percy?

[percy]

If you think about it, the one thing percy says over and over again is [paraphrased] 'do your research'.

One can't deny him the kudos for that as it is the most fundamental aspect of investing, truely understanding what you're putting your money into, and yet imo so few really bother to do it.

We are not buying or selling someone's opinion on an internet discussion group, we are putting our hard earned $ to work in some company that we believe in because we know enough to believe in it and that will make us handsome rewards as its' investors, or gets us out when it isn't doing what we expect it to do.

USX provides another vehicle to invest, but just that bit more challenging to understand as it requires so much less disclosure by the company, which makes understanding it that much more difficult. However it's not to be ignored, if you have the wherewithal to apply the fortitude in doing what percy says, know the company, decide, invest or not, stay the course, until it changes, then get out.

Is that a fair summary percy?

Yes.
Research,research and then a bit more research.
Look at it as though you are looking to buy the whole company.
I sometimes like comparing market cap.Say looking at three companies with a market cap of say $200 mil.Which one would I buy.Company,a,b,or c.
Which one does what they say they will do,which one has the least debt,which one has the best cash flow.
If I owned the whole company would I do what management are doing.Are the management honest,do they speak openly.
And I will add a bit to what BaaBaa pointed out.If you have it wrong get out straight away.ie if the reasons you brought in are no longer valid get out.
This is different from a business having a setback.All businesses have setbacks.ie Michael Hill has changed from a discounter to full "value" retailer.So "business model" no longer was working.New model not working either, so sell.Mainfreight got Europe wrong.Their business model was sound,so they fixed Europe.Hold.
Again buy a good company at a fair price,rather than a fair company at a good price.

[minimoke]

Remember USX has next to no rules, it's like the wild west gold rush, you could strike gold or go bust. But as Perky says, there's some solid companies and some with great growth potential, if you can stomach the illiquidity and minimal disclosure.
Because nzx is so well regulated with companies making great decisions and keeping market up to date. Little beauts like SML.

[blackcap]

Remember USX has next to no rules, it's like the wild west gold rush, you could strike gold or go bust. But as Perky says, there's some solid companies and some with great growth potential, if you can stomach the illiquidity and minimal disclosure.

There may be no rules, but any Limited Liability company still has to play the the rules of the Companies Act 1993 (don't quote me on the date). Plenty of protection in there for minority shareholders. But granted there will be no such things like having to have 2 independent directors, continuous disclosure etc. But sometimes I wonder if those companies on the NZX abide by those rules anyway. WYN, PEB etc spring to mind.

[RupertBear]

Above posted 25-05-2019.
Another good week,.Inheritance is now $2,071,428.up $71,428 this week.
Wonder what the coming week will bring.?


Well done Percy! Thats pretty impressive in fact I would say you are very well positioned! :t_up:

[percy]

Well done Percy! Thats pretty impressive in fact I would say you are very well positioned! :t_up:

We....are "well positioned"....together.....Good way to be...lol

[RupertBear]

We....are "well positioned"....together.....Good way to be...lol

Thats true thanks Percy :)

[RupertBear]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com (http://www.waitakibio.com)

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

This post from Percy is one of may favorite posts on Share Trader. It tells me a lot about the man behind the post. It tells me he has no sense of entitlement and he has worked hard for what he has. It also tells me his values have not been changed by being a succesful investor. I also sense he is genuinely content with what he has achieved. He has also been very generous in sharing his investment ideas with us and he has been very helpful to newbies like me. Respect to you Percy :)

[percy]

This post from Percy is one of may favorite posts on Share Trader. It tells me a lot about the man behind the post. It tells me he has no sense of entitlement and he has worked hard for what he has. It also tells me his values have not been changed by being a succesful investor. I also sense he is genuinely content with what he has achieved. He has also been very generous in sharing his investment ideas with us and he has been very helpful to newbies like me. Respect to you Percy :)

I am a bit embarrassed by your post,however thank you.
Always remember just when you think you know what you are doing on the market,the market gives you a good kick up the backside, and tells you,you are still a dummy.!!!
Perhaps as you get older it happens fewer times.!!!
The upside is a dead duck coming back to life.Can't remember what I paid for them,but I had a few AIR on ASX left over.Trading a few months ago at 7.5 cents.Was going to sell them to tidy up the portfolio.Just as well I didn't, as they hit 45cents on Friday.!!!

[percy]

Well the $1mil has grown to $1,857,142 and looks "well positioned."

Above posted 10-04-2019.
Today with PAZ hitting a new high of 15 cents the inheritance is now $2,142,857.10.

[RupertBear]

Above posted 10-04-2019.
Today with PAZ hitting a new high of 15 cents the inheritance is now $2,142,857.10.

Geepers! :eek2:

[percy]

Today with PAZ hitting a new high of 15 cents the inheritance is now $2,142,857.10.

What a difference three days and one cent make.
With PAZ's sp hitting an all time high of 16 cents this morning, the inheritance is now $2,285,714.

[Beagle]

Remember USX has next to no rules, it's like the wild west gold rush, you could strike gold or go bust. But as Perky says, there's some solid companies and some with great growth potential, if you can stomach the illiquidity and minimal disclosure.

^^^^ This. Nobody needs or wants almost daily updates on the price of these unlisted shares and what their inheritance would now be worth if they had of theoretically invested $1m into any particular company. Its against the spirit or intention of what the thread was set up for.

If someone is in love with their unlisted share its far more appropriate they start their own thread on it, in my opinion.

[percy]

Only 153,382 avaliable at 16 cents.
Beagle is your love affair with Skyline Enterprises on www.usx.co.nz over.?
As for starting my own thread on PAZ, you will note if you go to unlisted here on Sharetrader ,I did in fact do so.

[LAC]

I am enjoying the commentary of those PAZ shares.

Maybe we should start a through for buying a million bux of one share and monitor it over time. Box of beers to 5year, 10year, 15year......leaders?

[Beagle]

Only 153,382 avaliable at 16 cents.
Beagle is your love affair with Skyline Enterprises on www.usx.co.nz over.?

I was never in love with them and did my due diligence and have opted to stay out. If I had of brought them I would have started a separate thread on them and shared my analysis in that appropriate thread. Useful analysis is FAR more interesting reading than frequent skiting about profits made, surely you would agree ?

[percy]

Only 153,382 avaliable at 16 cents.
Beagle is your love affair with Skyline Enterprises on www.usx.co.nz over.?
As for starting my own thread on PAZ, you will note if you go to unlisted here on Sharetrader ,I did in fact do so.

For Beagle...................lol.

[Beagle]

For Beagle...................lol.

Well I would have thought that was the place to remind anyone interested on such a regular basis about the unrealised paper profit you're theoretically making...if you can ever find the depth to sell them, that is. Can we get back to the thread topic now ?

[percy]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

Yes trying to sell my huge holding could be a problem,yet over 3.5 mil were traded yesterday,and approx 19mi during the past 6 months.
As I expect the sp to be between 25 cents and 30 cents within a year, I think I will hang on and enjoy the ride.
[Better not say where I think the sp will be in 2 years time.]....lol.

[RupertBear]

I am quite enjoying Percys updates on his PAZ investment. I think it actually does fit the brief of what would you invest in if you inherited $1,000,000. The only real difference being in Percys case its not a hypothetical investement. Good on you Percy :)

[percy]

I am quite enjoying Percys updates on his PAZ investment. I think it actually does fit the brief of what would you invest in if you inherited $1,000,000. The only real difference being in Percys case its not a hypothetical investement. Good on you Percy :)

I did not spend $1mil [unfortunately]...............lol.

[Beagle]

I happen to know it is theoretical. It has its own thread, enough said.
Here it is for those that want to continue to "enjoy" Percy's enthusiasm for PAZ https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8378-PAZ-Pharma-Zen

[Beagle]

Today if someone were to put a gun to my head and say your $1m has to go into one company I would pick SUM.

[couta1]

Today if someone were to put a gun to my head and say your $1m has to go into one company I would pick SUM. Well it would have to be HLG because it's my only true long term hold and also because It just happens that my holding value literally equals the SUM we are talking about here.

[Beagle]

Well it would have to be HLG because it's my only true long term hold and also because It just happens that my holding value literally equals the SUM we are talking about here.

You're a real breath of fresh air around here mate. We can always count on you for an honest post and no B.S. about where you have your millions parked.

[Yoda]

I still think MFT ......

[Apathy]

^^^^ This. Nobody needs or wants almost daily updates on the price of these unlisted shares and what their inheritance would now be worth if they had of theoretically invested $1m into any particular company. Its against the spirit or intention of what the thread was set up for.

If someone is in love with their unlisted share its far more appropriate they start their own thread on it, in my opinion.

Wow ........ bitter much? So only allowed to use NZX listed? I love it when the ill informed start looking down their nose at unlisted.. NZX is by international standards an absolute farce - what other market (outside the third world) allows companies to announce they are insolvent and remain listed? Can anyone find a listing on NZX trading at 1/10th of a cent? Or years without turning a profit...... some of our listings will be famous internationally for continuous losses..... How about the back door listings and the repeat offenders they legitimise!? They allow the continuous disclosure requirement to be used for ramping but go soft on omissions.
Maybe you should set up a thread..... only NZX and you can only rely on NZX updates. Good on Percy for doing actual homework!

[Joshuatree]

Yes trying to sell my huge holding could be a problem,yet over 3.5 mil were traded yesterday,and approx 19mi during the past 6 months.
As I expect the sp to be between 25 cents and 30 cents within a year, I think I will hang on and enjoy the ride.
[Better not say where I think the sp will be in 2 years time.]....lol.

And PAZ may well shift to the NZX or further by then.But no prob if not liquidity increasing heaps, thanks partly to Percy.

[Beagle]

I was brushing up on a little bit of Buffet today and thought I'd play a little theoretical exercise this weekend. I have my answer already but will post that on Monday.


Congratulations, you just inherited one million dollars and there are just two conditions. Its to be held in trust for you and all dividends received reinvested and you can't touch it for 10 years. You can only choose one company to invest the full amount into. Which company do you choose and why ?
Opening thread question... repeated, because it seems many have missed the point of this thread.


Wow ........ bitter much? So only allowed to use NZX listed? I love it when the ill informed start looking down their nose at unlisted.. NZX is by international standards an absolute farce - what other market (outside the third world) allows companies to announce they are insolvent and remain listed? Can anyone find a listing on NZX trading at 1/10th of a cent? Or years without turning a profit...... some of our listings will be famous internationally for continuous losses..... How about the back door listings and the repeat offenders they legitimise!? They allow the continuous disclosure requirement to be used for ramping but go soft on omissions.
Maybe you should set up a thread..... only NZX and you can only rely on NZX updates. Good on Percy for doing actual homework!

Way to go in terms of missing the point of my post.

[Joshuatree]

Unfortunately you still dont know the difference after all these years w69 and w69.How long is it going to take, how long is apiece of string?:ohmy:

[couta1]

Remain calm, posters Very sound advice and I'm feeling calm already.

[winner69]

Very sound advice and I'm feeling calm already.

Me too

with all the goings and comings quite a magical thread

[couta1]

Me too

with all the goings and comings quite a magical thread The large glass of 2013 edition straw wine I'm drinking is probably helping along with all the A2 milk I had with breakfast, great combo.

[winner69]

The large glass of 2013 edition straw wine I'm drinking is probably helping along with all the A2 milk I had with breakfast, great combo.

Nice .....the stuff millionaires drink on a lazy afternoon

The Marlborough vintage or some imported stuff

[couta1]

Nice .....the stuff millionaires drink on a lazy afternoon

The Marlborough vintage or some imported stuff From South Africa so really good.

[Joshuatree]

Thats more reasonable, good harmless fluff.:)

[RupertBear]

Pleased to see the thread has not been deleted as I think its a good one :)

[Apathy]

Opening thread question... repeated, because it seems many have missed the point of this thread.

Way to go in terms of missing the point of my post.

Not sure that anything Percy said contravened the initial intent?

I do however accept that in a subsequent post you said "...Thanks. Opps, yes I should have provided more clarity around that. The intention was is that it must be one NZX listed company and that is one company only..."

in the interests of anyone else getting it wrong going forward - is that all NZX boards or just the main one? And to be extra sure...... no one should provide any evidence to support their choice of investment?

[percy]

I was brushing up on a little bit of Buffet today and thought I'd play a little theoretical exercise this weekend. I have my answer already but will post that on Monday.


Congratulations, you just inherited one million dollars and there are just two conditions. Its to be held in trust for you and all dividends received reinvested and you can't touch it for 10 years. You can only choose one company to invest the full amount into. Which company do you choose and why ?

The start of this thread.

[percy]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

My post.
Note link to www.waitakibio.com Paz's site,which shows their products..
PAZ are currently not paying a dividend,as their are too many opportunities for growth.Perhaps in 5 years time?

[percy]

.........yes he is generating a lot of hype .....key attribute of all champion rampers

I have shared my research on PAZ for eight years here on ST.
My projections are based on that research.
PAZ's agm presentation gives those projections,which I pointed out was growth rate twice their PE ratio at the time I posted.
Facts,not ramping.

[winner69]

I have shared my research on PAZ for eight years here on ST.
My projections are based on that research.
PAZ's agm presentation gives those projections,which I pointed out are growth rate twice their current PE ratio.
Facts,not ramping.

Yes percy you have done well with your millions of PAZ shares

Long may the journey continue ...even longer than the 10 years as per subject of this thread ...might even get to that $4.50 /$5.00 you hinted. That will be a big day for all of us.

[percy]

Yes percy you have done well with your millions of PAZ shares

Long may the journey continue ...even longer than the 10 years as per subject of this thread ...might even get to that $4.50 /$5.00 you hinted. That will be a big day for all of us.

As per the thread,"Your $1 mil inheritance is locked for 10 years in one company,which one?",I selected to buy [in theory] 14,285.714 PAZ at 7 cents,which would be worth $64,285,713 at your $4.50..
Now that really is the $64mil question.Will they?

[RupertBear]

Congratulations, you just inherited one million dollars and there are just two conditions. Its to be held in trust for you and all dividends received reinvested and you can't touch it for 10 years. You can only choose one company to invest the full amount into. Which company do you choose and why ?

TBH I still detect an undercurrent of niggling on this post. I am not quite sure why and what the issue is with Percy choosing to invest in PAZ (other than it is unlisted, at the moment, but so what).

I may be wrong but I have never regarded Percys enthusiasm to be ramping. I actually think its good to have our eyes open to new investement opportunities rather than the same old same old, so I will be very interested to follow PAZ and see how they go over the next ten years.

[winner69]

As per the thread,"Your $1 mil inheritance is locked for 10 years in one company,which one?",I selected to buy [in theory] 14,285.714 PAZ at 7 cents,which would be worth $64,285,713 at your $4.50..
Now that really is the $64mil question.Will they?

But $71,428,570.00 (that’s $71m plus change) at $5.00

No worries

[RupertBear]

But $71,428,570.00 (that’s $71m plus change) at $5.00

No worries

I like the sound of that! No worries indeed :D

[couta1]

PAZ and PEB kinda rhyme but let's hope the former doesn't follow the path of the later dog. PS-Remenber all the hype PEB got in the early days, it was going to the moon until it wasn't. PPS- I certainly wouldn't put a million into a high risk company like this although a million inheritance was never your money in the first place so a bit different but PAZ looks worth a small punt I reckon.

[winner69]

PAZ and PEB kinda rhyme but let's hope the former doesn't follow the path of the later dog. PS-Remenber all the hype PEB got in the early days, it was going to the moon until it wasn't. PPS- I certainly wouldn't put a million into a high risk company like this although a million inheritance was never your money in the first place so a bit different but PAZ looks worth a small punt I reckon.

Sure is mate

Glad you joining the party ...the more the merrier

I reckon beagle has already joined in.

[percy]

PAZ and PEB kinda rhyme but let's hope the former doesn't follow the path of the later dog. PS-Remenber all the hype PEB got in the early days, it was going to the moon until it wasn't. PPS- I certainly wouldn't put a million into a high risk company like this although a million inheritance was never your money in the first place so a bit different but PAZ looks worth a small punt I reckon.

PAZ has more in common with ATM.
Both were started by the late Howard Paterson.
To the best of my knowledge he had nothing to do with PEB.Neither have I..

[winner69]

PAZ has more in common with ATM.
Both were started by the late Howard Paterson.
To the best of my knowledge he had nothing to do with PEB.Neither have I..

Probably correct ....an obituary said this -

Some of the higher-profile dairy companies he was involved with included A2 Corporation, producing A2 milk with its claimed benefits, and companies such as Botry-Zen, Pharma Zen and Blis Technologies.

[percy]

Probably correct ....an obituary said this -

Some of the higher-profile dairy companies he was involved with included A2 Corporation, producing A2 milk with its claimed benefits, and companies such as Botry-Zen, Pharma Zen and Blis Technologies.

His brothers are still large shareholders of PAZ.
Howard's friend Dr.Wayne Burt, is the second largest shareholder of PAZ, as well as being a director.
Google him [Australia] and if you are up to it, check out his latest UK address.[NZ Companies office,Pharmazen,directors]

[winner69]

Probably correct ....an obituary said this -

Some of the higher-profile dairy companies he was involved with included A2 Corporation, producing A2 milk with its claimed benefits, and companies such as Botry-Zen, Pharma Zen and Blis Technologies.

Think I along with the Paterson boys had some BOZ shares once

They eventually went belly up and other people run Botry-zen now.

[percy]

Think I along with the Paterson boys had some BOZ shares once

They eventually went belly up and other people run Botry-zen now.

Their ATM most probably more than covered any BOZ losses.[and then some].
PAZ will be the icing on the cake .!
How are you getting on finding out Dr.Wayne Burt's background.?
Try Googling "International banker takes on A2."

[winner69]

Their ATM most probably more than covered any BOZ losses.[and then some].
PAZ will be the icing on the cake .!
How are you getting on finding out Dr.Wayne Burt's background.?
Try Googling "International banker takes on A2."

Most things he touches turns to gold eh

That’s good, nothing like following good fortune.

[percy]

Most things he touches turns to gold eh

That’s good, nothing like following good fortune.

psssssssst..................If you get in quickly tomorrow morning, you may be lucky to get some at 16 cents.
Have to be quick though.
If not 17 cents will look a steal by Christmas.

[winner69]

Percy, we should stop going on about how perceptive Howard Patterson and his family and friends were on this thread — diverts attention away from the main topic

If we do carry on the conversation somebody might come up with Blis Technologies as the stock to put their inheritance on — at least that would be on thread

[percy]

Think that would be Simla.395 pages on that thread.Was on my watch list 8 years ago,but gave it a miss .Think it was about the time Barry Richardson joined them from Westland Dairy.
Yet....................... just perhaps?...lol.

ps.Might pay you to buy some of them too.[diversity].
Take care though, as I see no sign of Dr.Wayne Burt, as either a director or shareholder.[or anyone else I know of either].

[percy]

psssssssst..................If you get in quickly tomorrow morning, you may be lucky to get some at 16 cents.
Have to be quick though.
If not 17 cents will look a steal by Christmas.
W69.
Trust you were quick and got the ones at 16 cents,before they finished the day at 17 cents.?
If not 17 cents may look cheap by Friday.

[winner69]

W69.
Trust you were quick and got the ones at 16 cents,before they finished the day at 17 cents.?
If not 17 cents may look cheap by Friday.

The hype sucked me in a while ago ...always buy what the shoeshine guys reckons is good strategy they say

[Apathy]

Opening thread question... repeated, because it seems many have missed the point of this thread.



Way to go in terms of missing the point of my post.

Hey Percy - can we get an update please?

[percy]

Hey Percy - can we get an update please?

Ssssssssssssssssh,
Just between us $2,571,428.

[winner69]

Ssssssssssssssssh,
Just between us $2,571,428.

Heading to $71m

[Joshuatree]

Been a good thread,thanks Beagle(ps be a little more flexible, this is a public forum not a private blogg :)

[percy]

Hey Percy - can we get an update please?

$2,714,285........................................ ....

[minimoke]

$2,714,285........................................ ....At $0.19 I presume. Hard to keep up with this wee rocket ship.

[percy]

At $0.19 I presume. Hard to keep up with this wee rocket ship.

Yes at 19 cps....
We may have to go to hourly updates?.............lol.

[percy]

Never expected to inherit anything from great great uncle Rudolf Percy,so it comes as a big surprise.Certainly don't need it,having prospered under my own steam,so even in ten years time it will make no difference to our lifestyle, or way of life,so might just as well have some fun with it.
PAZ on NZ Unlisted market is company that could be worth 20 to 50 times the under 10 cents it is trading at currently,in 10 years time.
They are an innovative developer,manufacturer and marketer of science based,natural nutritional products.
www.waitakibio.com

PS.Another company, like A2, started by the late Howard Paterson.
Disc My wife and I hold.

Above posted 23-06-19
Well a year later the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2,857,142,with PAZ's share price going from 7 cents to 20 cents.

"Well positioned."

[winner69]

Above posted 23-06-19
Well a year later the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2,857,142,with PAZ's share price going from 7 cents to 20 cents.

"Well positioned."

.....and in another nine years it’ll be over $70m

[RupertBear]

Above posted 23-06-19
Well a year later the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2,857,142,with PAZ's share price going from 7 cents to 20 cents.

"Well positioned."

Thats a pretty fabulous return in a year Percy! WOW! Onwards and upwards! :)

[Leftfield]

Thats a pretty fabulous return in a year Percy! WOW! Onwards and upwards! :)

Well done Percy! Interestingly a similar (hypothetical and retrospective) $1m investment in PLX would have done well too.

PAZ 7c to 20c = 185%
PLX 20c to 80c = 300%

Early days in a 10 yr competition. I wonder who of us will be still around for the awards ceremony!!

[percy]

Well done Percy! Interestingly a similar (hypothetical and retrospective) $1m investment in PLX would have done well too.

PAZ 7c to 20c = 185%
PLX 20c to 80c = 300%

Early days in a 10 yr competition. I wonder who of us will be still around for the awards ceremony!!

PLX..I was the highest bidder for two days at 18 cents.They traded at 19 cents.I never brought any.!!..Another big mistake..lol
Always opportunities.

[King1212]

Can not win all the time Percy....

[bull....]

well done percy your retirement fund is doing really well

[Leftfield]

PLX..I was the highest bidder for two days at 18 cents.They traded at 19 cents.I never brought any.!!..Another big mistake..lol
Always opportunities.

Indeed always opportunities and although I missed PAZ, I'm happy with PLX in my portfolio.

Must say the assumption that one would stick with one company for 10 yrs as a viable strategy is a bit suspect IMHO. ATM has so far been my longest investment at 5 yrs, and while I may well still hold some in 5 yrs, it is more likely that I'll have considerably reduced my holding and re-invested elsewhere.

It might be interesting to see what actual NZ companies investors have stuck with for the last 10 yrs and who has done best?

[percy]

I held EBO for over 25 years.I think people who brought into the IPOs of the following companies would be rather pleased they never sold.
AIA,FRE,IFT,MFT,POT,RYM.TPW.

[Leftfield]

I held EBO for over 25 years.I think people who brought into the IPOs of the following companies would be rather pleased they never sold.
AIA,FRE,IFT,MFT,POT,RYM.TPW.

Thanks for sharing your experience Percy, I hope to have a few such gems in my portfolio in 25 yrs.... indeed facing 70 yrs old, I hope to be alive and well in 25 yrs!! LOL.

[percy]

Thanks for sharing your experience Percy, I hope to have a few such gems in my portfolio in 25 yrs.... indeed facing 70 yrs old, I hope to be alive and well in 25 yrs!! LOL.

Well I am 70.
Just need to last another 9 years to see what share price PAZ [and PLX] are then.
Something to live for.?..lol.

[777]

Longest share I have held is KIP/KPG 31/3/1997 (22+years)
Bought 18,000@1.10 Cost $19,840.
Value now $28,922
Total dividends received $27,528.

A few cash issues along the way with them.

[Sideshow Bob]

Longest share I have held is KIP/KPG 31/3/1997 (22+years)
Bought 18,000@1.10 Cost $19,840.
Value now $28,922
Total dividends received $27,528.

A few cash issues along the way with them.

Equating to <5% annually on a compounding basis??

[Baa_Baa]

Equating to <5% annually on a compounding basis??

That's a bit mean spirited, if you were offered 5% compounding (linear) for 22 years, right now, would you take it?

[777]

That's a bit mean spirited, if you were offered 5% compounding (linear) for 22 years, right now, would you take it?

LOL. I can take it. He could be upset knowing how many I actually hold.

[fungus pudding]

Equating to <5% annually on a compounding basis??

But $92000 (or an extra 44k approx.) if dividends reinvested annually at an equal rate. And Allah alone knows what if reinvested on receipt. (quarterly)

[777]

But $92000 (or an extra 44k approx.) if dividends reinvested annually at an equal rate. And Allah alone knows what if reinvested on receipt. (quarterly)

Actually it works out at 4.87% (7.27% gross) with the reinvestment.

Not my best investment but a long way from my worse ones.

[Sideshow Bob]

That's a bit mean spirited, if you were offered 5% compounding (linear) for 22 years, right now, would you take it?

Apologies I wasn't trying to be mean-spirited. Just trying to gain a little more understanding.

[Sideshow Bob]

That's a bit mean spirited, if you were offered 5% compounding (linear) for 22 years, right now, would you take it?

But today a 6 month term deposit might be 3%? Back then was about 7-8% - so completely different environments.....

Regardless right now could go buy Argosy at 4.61% yield, and even KPG is 4.32% (after tax).

[Jim]

I am 63, retired. bought AIA, CEN and MEL since listed. Never sold any of them.

[777]

But today a 6 month term deposit might be 3%? Back then was about 7-8% - so completely different environments.....

Regardless right now could go buy Argosy at 4.61% yield, and even KPG is 4.32% (after tax).

I have all the property companies Bob, so I am covered.

[percy]

Hey Percy - can we get an update please?

Big day today........$3,000,000 as PAZ hit 21 cents.Our buy price was 7 cents.

[RupertBear]

Big day today........$3,000,000 as PAZ hit 21 cents.Our buy price was 7 cents.

Well done picking this one when you did Percy :)

[Timesurfer]

PLX..I was the highest bidder for two days at 18 cents.They traded at 19 cents.I never brought any.!!..Another big mistake..lol
Always opportunities.

I bought some 18.2 to 19.5 probably around the same time. Feeling equally ill that I sold them for .24 because the market started to turn and I wanted to pull some profit out prior to last Christmas. :confused:

However they got here I wish I'd stuck with them a bit longer! Instead I have to go and kick some other dogs and see if I can a return off them.

[percy]

I bought some 18.2 to 19.5 probably around the same time. Feeling equally ill that I sold them for .24 because the market started to turn and I wanted to pull some profit out prior to last Christmas. :confused:

However they got here I wish I'd stuck with them a bit longer! Instead I have to go and kick some other dogs and see if I can a return off them.

The market can be hard...
My luckiest was when I brought an Aussie company called Longreach in the morning ,and in the afternoon a takeover was announced.!

[Joshuatree]

I am 63, retired. bought AIA, CEN and MEL since listed. Never sold any of them.

Thats the secret with solid shares Jim (and property) , hold longterm. Can you share your gains on these shares s/p wise to keep it simple?

[stoploss]

Thats the secret with solid shares Jim (and property) , hold longterm. Can you share your gains on these shares s/p wise to keep it simple?
Sounds like he purchased at list , So gains the Full Monty ...

[Joshuatree]

Whoops yeah, looks like we have a winner.:t_up:

[percy]

Above posted 23-06-2018.
PAZ share price at that date was 7 cents.
So in 11 months the $1mil inheritance has grown to $2mil.
I guess in another 11 months to 1 years time it will be $4 mil.
And that is what is known as "well positioned".
Above posted 25-5-2019
6 months later the inheritance is now worth [ PAZ at 26 cents] a total of $3,714,285 and remains "well positioned".

[Beagle]

I have had other thoughts at other times :lol: but what a wonderful thread this has turned out to be. :t_up:

[couta1]

I have had other thoughts at other times :lol: but what a wonderful thread this has turned out to be. :t_up: Too flashy for me. Lol

[peat]

Above posted 25-5-2019
6 months later the inheritance is now worth [ PAZ at 26 cents] a total of $3,714,285 and remains "well positioned".
Might struggle to ditch them all at that price though

[percy]

Might struggle to ditch them all at that price though

With another 8 years to run ?
Looks as though the inheritance is going to build up to between $20 and $40 mil.

[stoploss]

With another 8 years to run ?
Looks as though the inheritance is going to build up to between $20 and $40 mil.

Percy , the families favourite uncle !!!!!!!

[percy]

With PAZ hitting 28cents today the inheritance has hit $4 mil.!!

[RupertBear]

With PAZ hitting 28cents today the inheritance has hit $4 mil.!!

:eek2: Well done Percy, what a wee ripper! Very pleased for you, congrats on being very very very well positioned! :D

[Jay]

This inheritance was fictitious!, and started by Beagle, though percy does have some invested and is well positioned

[RupertBear]

This inheritance was fictitious!, and started by Beagle, though percy does have some invested and is well positioned

Yes I assume most of us following this thread know this is just a hypothetical investment but its fun to acknowledge Percys hypothetical pick has been very successful so far. Just so happens Percy is not the only one in real life that is well positioned, Mr Beagle and the Handsome Bear are on board this one as well. :D

[Jay]

Shame I'm not!:(

[percy]

Big day today........$3,000,000 as PAZ hit 21 cents.Our buy price was 7 cents.

Above posted 08-07-2019 ..11 months ago.
Well the inheritance has been increasing by $101,190 per week since then.ie over one hundred thousand dollars per week.
[Taken it is 48 weeks since the above post.]
With PAZ trading at 55 cps today,our $1mil inheritance is now worth $7,857,142.
Wonder when it will hit $10 mil.? This year or next year.?

[Leftfield]

Above posted 08-07-2019 ..11 months ago.
Well the inheritance has been increasing by $101,190 per week since then.ie over one hundred thousand dollars per week.

With PAZ trading at 55 cps today,our $1mil inheritance is now worth $7,857,142.
Wonder when it will hit $10 mil.? This year or next year.?

Sincere congratulations Percy. Even if your actual investment was less than $1 mill, I'm sure you have done well. Enjoy!

[RupertBear]

Yes well done Percy and thanks for bringing this wee gem to our attention :)

[percy]

Sincere congratulations Percy. Even if your actual investment was less than $1 mill, I'm sure you have done well. Enjoy!

Fictitious portfolio unfortunately...lol.

[Leftfield]

Fictitious portfolio unfortunately...lol.

Appreciate that, but I understood you still held/hold a few? You were certainly calling this a long time ago and as a result I took a long hard look but decided... nnnoooo much to my regret!! Stella returns for holders.

[Baa_Baa]

Appreciate that, but I understood you still held/hold a few? You were certainly calling this a long time ago and as a result I took a long hard look but decided... nnnoooo much to my regret!! Stella returns for holders.

Great gains for sure but it’s the lack of liquidity that will keep some folks from participating, hard to tell whether under or over priced when the illiquid market is set up to attract reluctant sellers to drip feed small parcels at ever increasing ask’s. Virtually impossible to buy in or get out of in volume, particularly quickly if one needs to. Best thing this company could do imo is move to the NZX and test their market value against the big money, could be a very big winner for early entrants, while also providing the liquidity for the first followers, before the late majority pile in. Imo

[percy]

Appreciate that, but I understood you still held/hold a few? You were certainly calling this a long time ago and as a result I took a long hard look but decided... nnnoooo much to my regret!! Stella returns for holders.

Yes I just kept buying them,and they are now by far our largest holding.
Fundamentals and prospects today are more compelling than ever.
The catalyst for non holders to buy, will most probably be in their first half result announcement of 7th August, which will include their trading update, and also their outlook statement.The outlook statement should be a cracker.

[iceman]

Great gains for sure but it’s the lack of liquidity that will keep some folks from participating, hard to tell whether under or over priced when the illiquid market is set up to attract reluctant sellers to drip feed small parcels at ever increasing ask’s. Virtually impossible to buy in or get out of in volume, particularly quickly if one needs to. Best thing this company could do imo is move to the NZX and test their market value against the big money, could be a very big winner for early entrants, while also providing the liquidity for the first followers, before the late majority pile in. Imo

I think it is highly likely they will need to raise capital in the near future to fund the exceptional growth and in my view a NZX listing is likely to be done at the same time. Just a guess of course !

[percy]

PAZ is not a stock for traders.
Only suitable for long term investors.

ps.In the past 9 or 10 years I have only ever brought PAZ shares,.Never sold any.Why would I.?,,lol,

From my post #4 PAZ thread posted 23/4/2011
A word of warning.The unlisted companies are thinly traded.Brokers do not follow them.You are on your own.Uncharted territory.More risk,but possibly more rewards.

[whatsup]

PAZ is not a stock for traders.
Only suitable for long term investors.

ps.In the past 9 or 10 years I have only ever brought PAZ shares,.Never sold any.Why would I.?,,lol,

From my post #4 PAZ thread posted 23/4/2011
A word of warning.The unlisted companies are thinly traded.Brokers do not follow them.You are on your own.Uncharted territory.More risk,but possibly more rewards.

percy, u hold 7 or 8 figures ?

[percy]

percy, u hold 7 or 8 figures ?

7 figures .


I brought 80,000 at 3.5cents on Thursday, ...........again from my post #4 on PAZ thread dated 23/4/2011.So have brought a lot since.Really loaded up when they had a capital raise at 7 cents.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Percy, Iceman and Baa Baa, good comments. The unlisted/hard to trade nature was what put me off when I looked at it. However I can recall reading the list of shareholders which seemed to be a veritable Who's Who of Southern Investors (and a few old mates)!!

Lots of good people 'well positioned' including Percy. ( Note to self - put 7 Aug in Diary!)

[Beagle]

Arguably THE most controversial thread I ever started with some real roller coaster consequences but crikey am I pleased I did !
PAZ a very good company with very strong growth propsects. Thank you Percy.

[percy]

Arguably THE most controversial thread I ever started with some real roller coaster consequences but crikey am I pleased I did !
PAZ a very good company with very strong growth propsects. Thank you Percy.

Well we are nearly 4 years on and our $1mil locked into PAZ is currently worth $8.71 mil.
Way we are travelling I expect it will be worth nearly $25mil at the end of the 10 years.
However with their two new fantastic state of the art factories due to come on stream in the next year or 2 who would know.
Adding fuel to the fire I note they have enough land at Rolleston to build even more production capacity.
Maybe our $1mil may grow to between $30mil and $40mil.Thank goodness it is locked away for another 6 years.
"Well positioned,."...lol

[RupertBear]

Well we are nearly 4 years on and our $1mil locked into PAZ is currently worth $8.71 mil.
Way we are travelling I expect it will be worth nearly $25mil at the end of the 10 years.
However with their two new fantastic state of the art factories due to come on stream in the next year or 2 who would know.
Adding fuel to the fire I note they have enough land at Rolleston to build even more production capacity.
Maybe our $1mil may grow to between $30mil and $40mil.Thank goodness it is locked away for another 6 years.
"Well positioned,."...lol

Thats awesome Percy, you are indeed very well positioned :)

[percy]

Thats awesome Percy, you are indeed very well positioned :)

Pity in real life I did not have a spare $1mil to lock up for 10 years.
However I did invest far more than was prudent.!..lol

[Beagle]

Arguably THE most controversial thread I ever started with some real roller coaster consequences but crikey am I pleased I did !
PAZ a very good company with very strong growth propsects. Thank you Percy.

A LOT has changed since that post nearly 2 years ago In June 2020. They have certainly been on a baptism of fire journey with their growth aspirations and its not over yet by any means. PAZ face a gargantuan sized challenge immediately ahead trying to find the manpower to run all their new plant and machinery when they're already 20% short and don't appear able to solve their existing staff crisis issues. Trying to solve that massive problem probably has major implications for pay rates and consequently quite serious flow on effects to the profitability of the company in the future. Its acts like a huge handbrake on earnings growth. We've all seen how the rapidly escalating pay rates for companies like OCA has really sucked the life out of earnings growth for them. One problem child in my portfolio is more than enough for me lol

$1m today invested in HGH will give investors a gross yield of (my estimate) 8.4% in FY23 ($84,000 per annum gross income) and they have a well proven and long track record of steadily growing earnings and dividends so it won't be long until that million generates $100,000 annual income !
The perfect stock, (trading on compelling metrics in the early teens PE), for those looking for growth and high level's of income that continue growing.

[percy]

What was the point of starting the tread?

[couta1]

What was the point of starting the tread? Boredom...

[Rawz]

The point was where would you put $1m for 10 years and Percy is saying the PAZ short term hurdles don’t matter with a 10 year investment time horizon

[blackie]

Boredom...

not as boring as your great contribution

[couta1]

not as boring as your great contribution Been too busy with the grandkids and out catching snapper, what's your excuse for your 39 posts?

[percy]

The point was where would you put $1m for 10 years and Percy is saying the PAZ short term hurdles don’t matter with a 10 year investment time horizon

Exactly.............
Although the $1mil has already grown to $8.71 mil in just 4 years.