Predictions

[Lewylewylewy]

Since it's still the start of the year, I would like to invite people to share their predictions for the coming times.

Just for fun, I'll start things off:

I have a feeling there will be another buying opportunity later this year.

Plenty of shenanigans from Trumpy to enjoy, we just have to wait for the moment Americans can understand that he's doing economic damage. Then every stupid thing will be a buying opportunity. He may also go a bit loopy towards the end of his reign and his health will become a public issue.

Also, i think that if it goes poorly within the next few years, he won't go up for reelection because it will be too damaging for his ego to have people not vote for him (therefore saying he's not the best president). However, if he does, the election will be another buying opportunity to the order of 10-20% profit trading that month.

There will be another drop in the nzx throughout the year, but the nzx will be higher at the end of 2019.

[Biscuit]

Predictions for 2019:

1. Trump and Pence impeached; Pelosi new USA President.
2. 2nd referendum leads to Brexit being cancelled.
3. NZX down 40%

[Lewylewylewy]

Ive gotta agree with point 2

[Ggcc]

Predictions for 2019:

1. Trump and Pence impeached; Pelosi new USA President.
2. 2nd referendum leads to Brexit being cancelled.
3. NZX down 40%

One can only hope for number 2 to take place. They seem extremely disorganised in UK and stubborn in negotiations. They chose to leave initially and now that S*&^ hit the fan they have their tail between their legs, as they can't work out stuff internally.

[Leftfield]

Back to Bull.....!!!

10258

[bohemian]

Prediction 1 can't happen without a 2/3 Senate majority, 2 is a probable will happen and 3 not so much.

[whatsup]

Predictions for 2019:

1. Trump and Pence impeached; Pelosi new USA President.
2. 2nd referendum leads to Brexit being cancelled.
3. NZX down 40%


What the ignorant people do not realise is that there can be no 2nd referendum of Brexit , if there was it would lead to a challenge to every U K election by the dissatisfied parties !!!

The fish heads had their chance to vote but didn't see the need and now being stuck with the results( which they do not like ) have finally woken to the consequences of their arrogance !!!

[Lewylewylewy]

Pretty harsh words there Whatsup, to call us ignorant people. But perhaps you're right about no second referendum.

My personal view of it, is that they voted on whether they wanted out, then the deals were negotiated, it makes sense (since the deals are perceived to be so bad) that people should be allowed to vote about whether they want to leave now they know the terms.

An analogy would be calling up a painter and telling them that you want them to paint your house, but when they turn up they can only use bright green paint, then then telling you that you have to let them do it because you said they could.

If they had a cheaper, easier, more efficient way to hold referendums, people could have more granular choice about things, but i guess that's a different topic.

[Blue Skies]

I think you'll find referendums in the UK are not legally binding (unlike a general election) & there's a reason for that. The govt of the day can ignore the results if they wish (would be interesting to know past examples of this) & certainly if there was a general election & a change of government based on brexit, it would be an interesting situation.

[whatsup]

I think you'll find referendums in the UK are not legally binding (unlike a general election) & there's a reason for that. The govt of the day can ignore the results if they wish (would be interesting to know past examples of this) & certainly if there was a general election & a change of government based on brexit, it would be an interesting situation.

Which leaves it up to the courts to decide !

[Blue Skies]

Just to add to that, since the results of the referendum are not legally binding and therefore the consequences are more political than anything else, and recent polls indicate 1.1 million people who voted for Brexit would now vote against it, there's just as strong a case for holding a new referendum as there is against!

Whole thing's deadlocked, maybe a general election the answer?

Several EU govt's have ignored results of past referendums when faced with reality. e.g. Greece agreeing to austerity package insisted on by Germany in return for further loans, despite referendum result heavily against.

[janner]

Predictions.

Unless the monies are needed for some ( spelt correctly ) other reason.
Is this not the basis of every sale or purchase.
Tarot Cards Next ?.

[moka]

Several EU govt's have ignored results of past referendums when faced with reality. e.g. Greece agreeing to austerity package insisted on by Germany in return for further loans, despite referendum result heavily against.
Increasingly democracy is being undermined and the will of the people ignored as was done in Greece. Big bankers dictate to governments when a country is in debt and needs financial assistance. Austerity so the rich get richer and the poor poorer. Neoliberalism undermines democracy. The success of neoliberal political strategies rests on a mixture of rhetoric and control of democracy’s major local and global institutions.

World-wide democracy is being undermined as this article previously posted by winner explains. The book Democracy in Chains discusses how the capitalist radical right has been working not simply to change who rules, but to fundamentally alter the rules of democratic governance. Charles Koch, whose mission was to save capitalists like himself from democracy, found the ultimate theoretical tool in the work of the southern economist James McGill Buchanan.

Many liberals have missed the point of strategies like privatization. Efforts to “reform” public education and Social Security are not just about a preference for the private sector over the public sector. MacLean contends, the goal of these strategies is to radically alter power relations, weakening pro-public forces and enhancing the lobbying power and commitment of the corporations that take over public services and resources, thus advancing the plans to dismantle democracy and make way for a return to oligarchy. The majority will be held captive so that the wealthy can finally be free to do as they please, no matter how destructive.
MacLean argues that shrinking big government is not really the point. The oligarchs require a government with tremendous new powers so that they can bypass the will of the people.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america
https://politicalinequality.org/2016/12/16/neoliberalism-and-democracy/

[moka]

My prediction is that when the next recession/financial crisis hits the US will want austerity for the poor. They will be asked to tighten their belts. The government will want to cut spending on welfare, education, health etc because the debt is too high. The recent tax cuts which benefited the rich the most were funded by debt. The rich will not be asked to tighten their belts i.e. tax increase, and in fact could be given a tax cut to get the economy going. Rich get richer, poor get poorer.
Never let a good crisis go to waste - this expression is now commonly applied to economic or diplomatic crises that can be exploited to advance political agendas.

[Onion]

My prediction is that when the next recession/financial crisis hits the US will want austerity for the poor. They will be asked to tighten their belts. The government will want to cut spending on welfare, education, health etc because the debt is too high. The recent tax cuts which benefited the rich the most were funded by debt. The rich will not be asked to tighten their belts i.e. tax increase, and in fact could be given a tax cut to get the economy going. Rich get richer, poor get poorer.
Never let a good crisis go to waste - this expression is now commonly applied to economic or diplomatic crises that can be exploited to advance political agendas.

I watched the first episode from the Aljazeera documentary "Hard Earned" last night. If the poor buggers featured are made to tighten their belts further then I pity them. These are people that are not living the "American Dream" (which happens to be the ironic name for the first episode).

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/hardearned/

[NeverQuestion]

My Prediction is that in 6 months we will be in a major global economic crisis. This one will be simular to 2008 in that banks will be hit, but the root problem will be due to a wider range of debt. I believe the banks have once again lent out to those who can't afford to pay and have been aggressive in getting people to take out mortages and loans for consumer items. This has been the driver of asset bubbles all around the world. On top of that Companies have been taking out cheap loans and paying dividents or buying their own stock. basically I believe we will hit the debt wall it will be the trigger the crisis.

[moka]

I predict a recession is coming and that Trump will make it so much worse.

· Trump’s trade war is the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019.
· Trump has already shot most of the fiscal bullets, leaving less ammunition when it’s actually needed.
· Leadership - there’s the problem of USA’s deteriorating international standing. In the last financial crisis, having good relationships with foreign central banks, finance ministers and other leaders abroad proved crucial for coordinating fiscal and monetary responses.
· Trump has picked trade wars with adversaries and allies alike. He’s insulted foreign leaders, proved himself an erratic, unreliable partner, with a dubious grasp of basic economics.
· Trump views the world as zero-sum. Any time another country is improving, it must be at USA’s expense. Given this outlook, he may be suspicious of any multilateral response to a global downturn.
· Finally, there’s this administration’s unusually shallow bench of economic talent. Consider the team that led us out of the 2007-2008 financial panic. Whatever their shortcomings — and not foreseeing the crisis was surely one of them — they collectively offered tremendous expertise, experience and relationships. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke had spent his academic career studying the Great Depression. Bush’s treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, had been chief executive of Goldman Sachs; he knew the players on Wall Street, and they respected him. Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and later Obama’s treasury secretary, understood the plumbing of both the financial system and the federal government. (In an earlier stint at Treasury in the 1990s, he was involved in responses to financial crises in Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/12/20/feature/a-recession-is-coming-trump-is-going-to-make-the-recovery-worse/?utm_term=.1d64b066c8b7

[moka]

Australia will see the world's biggest house price declines this year. In a research report released on Wednesday, Fitch Ratings forecast Australian house prices would decline a further 5 per cent this year, on top of a 6.7 per cent decline from the peak so far, making Australian housing the worst performer out of 24 countries for the second consecutive year. The report said high household debt amplifies risks, with debt-to-GDP ratios at or over 100 per cent in Australia, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, and over 85 per cent in New Zealand, South Korea, Sweden and the UK.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/australia-to-see-worst-fall-in-house-prices/10720406