What will the NZX50 be in Christmas 2019 ?

[Beagle]

We had quite the week last week with the NZX50 up just over 4% to a new record high of just over 11,200.
One wonders where it might end up by Christmas ?
We live in a strange world where ~ 30% of the world's prime Govt and Corporate debt is now paying negative returns.
I suspect our market with its very high dividend yield (by international standards) will remain very well supported for the foreseeable future, but how well supported ?
Apart from overseas buyers chasing yield there's significant fresh investment money coming to the market every month with Kiwisaver….just a thought.

[Jay]

Could all depend on what DT tweets on any given day:)

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - I guess we have no clue in which state the UK economy will be by Christmas (will the BREXIT train wrack still move?), we don't know what Trump will do to crash or boost the mood (other that he will keep the cameras firmly focussed on his revolting character). We don't know whether the Middle East will explode - and whether the US Chinese trade war will get worse or better (though I suppose worse is more likely given the characters involved).

But - we know Trump wants to be re-elected next year and we know that interest rates will keep dropping.

Still - what are the odds to get any economical prediction right?

If things just keep going as they did, than the right answer is something in the middle of the 12000's (the power of linear extrapolation ...) - but then, over the past years I expected the indices to get worse and they got better - i.e. if I now expect them to get better, they probably just drop.

Here you are: NZX 50 will be around Christmas better, worse or the same as it is today ...

[Beagle]

It really is quite "the crapshoot" with the markets appearing to hang at least to some extent on DT's mood for any given day or his level of antagonism.
I can't ever recall it being harder to try and read the near term tea leaves.
I guess its simply better to invest in proven performers that have stood the test of time and can weather all conditions.
I picked 11,000 - 12,000 for what its worth because our market has already run pretty hard this year, nice man from Craig's reckoned up 22% YTD.
I really don't get why people would invest in for example 10 year German stock paying minus 0.7% per annum ? I haven't compounded that annual negative return out for 10 years but I guess people get about 90% of their money back in 10 years time...perhaps I don't "get it" and need to see the light but that seems totally bizarre to me. Funny world we live in eh ? In that context I think ~ 5.5% gross on nice safe gentailiers doesn't look too bad to me.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for organising this Beagle.

I only use NZX50 as measure of the average performance I seek to outperform with my portfolio.

[Aaron]

Under 9,000 but I wouldn't put money on it. Although as I write this I realise I am putting a lot of money on it, in a way. Very defensive with recession (maybe) on the horizon. although Dalio said maybe 25% chance in 2020 not 2019.

Lower interest rates and easier money can keep us going for decades I suppose. More like wishful thinking that I will once more have the chance to invest for a yield that can support me in retirement. Certainly a negative yield is of little help. I might be looking back on 2019 years from now wondering why I missed a chance to get 3-4% return. If people accept 1.5% as a yield in future years my capital will have doubled and I can live of the principal. All so complicated and I haven't even factored in inflation.

[Arbroath]

I went for 12,000-13,000 because another cut in November and this market can grind higher as more term deposits mature and look for a 'better' home.

Beagle - the German bund would deliver you about 93.2% of your capital back after a decade - have to believe in a Depression for that to be on the money...

[macduffy]

Beagle - the German bund would deliver you about 93.2% of your capital back after a decade - have to believe in a Depression for that to be on the money...

In which case our capital in equities will have depreciated commensurately!

:ohmy:

[winner69]

Could all depend on what DT tweets on any given day:)

All Donalds tweets and all the other ‘events’ round the world don’t seem to have affected the progress of the NZX

Maybe you read too much ‘stuff’ on the internet or watch too much CNBC or read BPs gloomy posts about the impending end of the world.

Best to ignore all that ..just concentrate on what actual companies are up to

[Jay]

All Donalds tweets and all the other ‘events’ round the world don’t seem to have affected the progress of the NZX

Maybe you read too much ‘stuff’ on the internet or watch too much CNBC or read BPs gloomy posts about the impending end of the world.

Best to ignore all that ..just concentrate on what actual companies are up to

True W69, I did pick 12-13K
Comment was more tongue in cheek:huh:

[ratkin]

All Donalds tweets and all the other ‘events’ round the world don’t seem to have affected the progress of the NZX

Maybe you read too much ‘stuff’ on the internet or watch too much CNBC or read BPs gloomy posts about the impending end of the world.

Best to ignore all that ..just concentrate on what actual companies are up to

Very true, it becomes ever harder to be a long term investor in this internet age. The noise level just goes through the roof. For one thing real journalism hardly exists anymore. It is all about being sensationalist to acquire maximum clicks. The world is about to implode being good clickbait material.

[Beagle]

CNBC more than a little addictive...but yes, hopefully we can fly under the radar in terms of any possible negative effects from strained relationships between other countries.