FPA Chart

[peat]

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/MessageBoard/Messages.aspx?id=33777971&threadid=33777971

FPA involved in conspiracy

Ninjas in the whiteware

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif

[moimoi]

Ninjas in the whiteware

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif

well no wonder FPA are losing money...they are obviously packing far too many features into their freezers!!

Can just see the marketing now...brand new top of the range freezers;comes with free low noise emmission email deleting device.

[bull....]

See the independant were told to get their facts right by F&P

[Grimy]

Big article in Friday's Business Herald on FPA.
Sounds like the company think they're basically okay..............
Worth a punt at current prices?

[winner69]

Big article in Friday's Business Herald on FPA.
Sounds like the company think they're basically okay..............
Worth a punt at current prices?

Whats your take then Grimy

[Grimy]

Whats your take then Grimy

I have no idea. The company says it is making money, has things in place for future growth and cost savings. But has a mountain of debt. If things turn around sooner rather than later, it could be a nice little share to be in. If things get worse/or go on for a long time, then it could be really tough.
The article in the Herald didn't give much meaningful info really (but when does a newspaper article?).
Just wondering what others are thinking at around fifty cents.

[boxing_beaver]

staff morale is at an all time low, especially in the engineering departments. not saying the future is bleak, just an observation

[Contrarian]

Gidday B

I'll stick my neck out & say by 31/12/2009 NZD will be LESS than 50 cents USD.

Bet you a nickel.

[lakedaemonian]

You're on ... :D ... But a nickel at todays rate or I'll be losing both ways ;)

I'll take some of that as well...NZD close 31/12/09 under 0.50 USD.

I don't think we are getting back to 0.60 USD for a while :(

[Stranger_Danger]

I'm with Belg, NZD over 50 cents USD.

[lakedaemonian]

I'm with Belg, NZD over 50 cents USD.

Interesting!

While long term I see us back above 0.50 and settling around 0.60 based on my opinion of fair value...I see more dark clouds ahead:

*tourism industry...our biggest export sector is going to get thumped...broke foreigners are going to need a BIGGER bargain than 0.50USD to fly halfway around the world to visit.

*primary producers.....dairy isn't out of the woods yet even with the first uptick of the latest Fonterra Auction...while I strongly believe commodities will be the sector to lead us first out of this financial mess it's not over yet.

*housing is continuing to tumble

*commercial property will take a fall on it's own, as well as accelerated by competing bond sales offering money chased out of the banks by lower returns better liquidity and immediate return than commercial RE.

*access to imported foreign credit is the biggest skeleton in the closet in my opinion.

I'll be VERY happy to eat a giant serving of humble pie if the Kiwi closes above 0.50USD 31/12/09.

I wonder if this is worth a new thread with a chance to vote for over/under 0.50c?

[macduffy]

This is getting off the subject of FPA but for what it's worth, I've learnt not to punt on forex rates, for other than the very short term. If forex movements are critical to the success of a business or investment, the only smart thing to do is to hedge the position at a rate that gives a satisfactory return, via forward exchange, forward buying/selling, options or whatever.
The problem is, of course, that the exchange value of the NZD is not only dependent on the fortunes of NZ but also on the relative performance of the other party/parties, among a number of other factors. Betting on a depreciation of the NZD against the USD for example is really saying that New Zealand's economy is going to fare worse than the USA's over the forecast period. I for one wouldn't want to or feel able to make that judgement.

[winner69]

This is getting off the subject of FPA but for what it's worth, I've learnt not to punt on forex rates, for other than the very short term. If forex movements are critical to the success of a business or investment, the only smart thing to do is to hedge the position at a rate that gives a satisfactory return, via forward exchange, forward buying/selling, options or whatever.
The problem is, of course, that the exchange value of the NZD is not only dependent on the fortunes of NZ but also on the relative performance of the other party/parties, among a number of other factors. Betting on a depreciation of the NZD against the USD for example is really saying that New Zealand's economy is going to fare worse than the USA's over the forecast period. I for one wouldn't want to or feel able to make that judgement.

.... and of course doing all those things to ensure certainities around returns costs money .... and in the current global financial markets it is getting expensive ....... nothing free eh ....... and the rewards might not always be there but you carry the cost anyway

Taking long term hedges at US$0.50 at the moment has a 'breakeven' in the low 40's .... is it worth the cost? ... that is the conumbrum many are faced with

[Stranger_Danger]

lake - I see all of the same things you do. I just see the USD screeching ahead of us in the race to the bottom.

[Balance]

Announcement imminent according to NZ Herald about capital raising and cornerstone shareholder.

[The BOWMAN]

Big drops yesterday and today. Inside trading perhaps? Anyone knows?

[winner69]

Big drops yesterday and today. Inside trading perhaps? Anyone knows?

Maybe the NPX affair has highlighted to money the perils of what happens when your put your hand out for cash .... just to give to the bank

At these sort of prices even a 'cornerstone' investor / white knight is going to be highly dilutive to current shareholders .... so for them is the best bet for somebody to come along and offer 70 cents a share for the lot

[dragonz]

Just looking at the currant depth this morning and am suprised that people are still willing to pay up to 37 cents per share. Even with a hugely dilutive Cap Raising what happens to the other $400 million in debt. Any bright spark worked out the gearing @ this level?

F & P forfieted its " iconic status" when they shifted thier manufacturing operations offshore in my opinion so a AIR type Government bailout is unlikely.

However this will become a high takeover target if the shareprice falls lower.:rolleyes:

Is this why punters are buying?:confused:

May be worth a look;)

[upside_umop]

There may not be as much dilution as people think or any.

They're aiming for $100 million for their sale of the properties...if this can happen sooner rather than later, they may scrap themselves out to be back in the banking covenants.

[Ekrub]

And the improvement in the Kiwi dollar in regard to the US $ last week,
about 3c I believe, has got to a favourable trend in terms of FPA's
offshore debt.

[Balance]

My guess would be cash strapped holders selling out just in case a rights issue materialises ...

Have been going up in big volume and only 1 big seller, CBA, supplying stock. Thought it was going to break well below 50c today but someone keeps moping up stock.

All the usual signs of something about to pop. Cornerstone shareholder?

[Anna Naum]

Have been going up in big volume and only 1 big seller, CBA, supplying stock. Thought it was going to break well below 50c today but someone keeps moping up stock.

All the usual signs of something about to pop. Cornerstone shareholder?

If you wanted to be a cornerstone shareholder, why not just go to the company, they have said they are looking for one and every other issuance in the market seems to be at a good discount to what ever the companies shareprice is.

[Balance]

If you wanted to be a cornerstone shareholder, why not just go to the company, they have said they are looking for one and every other issuance in the market seems to be at a good discount to what ever the companies shareprice is.

Agreed. Reference to cornerstone shareholder is not someone buying to be cornerstone, but awareness resolution is near with cornerstone shareholder.

Something is up - movement from 40 cents to 56 cents in a few days and heavy volumes are very telling on a stock under pressure. Why buy in volumes when Nuplex have just been crucified by the market for having a massive rights issue?

[Anna Naum]

Agreed. Reference to cornerstone shareholder is not someone buying to be cornerstone, but awareness resolution is near with cornerstone shareholder.

Something is up - movement from 40 cents to 56 cents in a few days and heavy volumes are very telling on a stock under pressure. Why buy in volumes when Nuplex have just been crucified by the market for having a massive rights issue?

If we look at the volumes in NPX while it fell, there was not sufficient volume to gain a good size position. If recent articles are correct, then the current insto shareholders have cornered most of the NPX rights issue, thus if you wanted to own a big position in FPA and did not have a position then yes you would have to be buying onmarket at the moment.

Also if the SS article is correct and some were selling short ahead of the rights issue, then should FPA get a cornerstone shareholder and not need to come to the market, then anyone short might feel a bit of the hot poker.

[Balance]

Volume = action.

Someone knows something.

[dragonz]

Have been going up in big volume and only 1 big seller, CBA, supplying stock. Thought it was going to break well below 50c today but someone keeps moping up stock.

All the usual signs of something about to pop. Cornerstone shareholder?

I thought exactly the same thing Balance.having earlier decided to stay away from this stock have done a u-turn and brought on opening @49 cents.

Something about to pop

[dragonz]

The following is from http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/4885080 on the 27th march


The likelihood of Fisher & Paykel Appliances securing a cornerstone investor to strengthen its balance sheet increases every day that the company holds off revealing its capital-raising plans, says broker Goldman Sachs JBWere.

Holding back on any equity- raising announcement would allow time for potential trade players to do due diligence on Auckland- based Appliances, said Goldman analyst Adrian Allbon.

The unveiling of a cornerstone investor would mean a smaller capital-raising pre-issue discount and it would be an external enforcement of the company's underlying value.

According to Mr Allbon's report, a cornerstone investor topped up with a rights issue is the most likely outcome for the whiteware manufacturer.

That will generate up to $150 million.

"We surmise the longer Appliances takes to come to market with its capital-raising proposal the more likely it is pursuing a cornerstone, who could currently be undertaking due diligence."

Appliances said last month that it was considering tapping investors for equity capital after revealing debts had ballooned to $520m as the kiwi dollar weakened and demand for its products fell.

Early this month, the besieged manufacturer, whose share price had tumbled nearly 70 per cent before this week's rally, secured a funding lifeline in the form of an $80m loan from its banking syndicate.

Only last week, resin maker Nuplex was forced to offer a deep discount (market price less 79 per cent) and increase the scope of its rights offer to win over shareholders, in a balance sheet strengthening exercise that many analysts believed would set the benchmark for other struggling companies.

But by taking the cornerstone- rights issue option, as opposed to a full rights issue, Appliances would get a more favourable pricing than Nuplex, Mr Allbon said.

A stumbling block for potential strategic partners, however, could be the company's non-core consumer finance business, and whether a 15 to 20 per cent stake in Appliances would be enough to justify the effort, he said.

Likely partners would be the United States' Whirlpool, Turkey's Arcelik and China's Haier, although the last two could harbour concerns about Appliances' technology-sharing agreement and motor contract with Whirlpool.

Appliances' head of investor relations, Paul Brockett, said the company had "nothing to announce".

Meanwhile, closure of the company's Cleveland factory in Brisbane was going ahead next Tuesday as planned.

A shortlist of potential buyers had been lined up, he said, and offers were closing in on the figure the board had in mind.

http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/4885080

[dragonz]

"A shortlist of potential buyers had been lined up, he said, and offers were closing in on the figure the board had in mind."

I think the above sentance from the previous article says it all really.

[Tanger]

I guess my take on that comment was that they had a short list for people to buy the land the Cleveland site was on. They have announced they are looking to sell it, and also the East Tamaki site. Don't think they were saying that a short list of bidders for a cornerstone shareholding had been drawn up.

[dragonz]

I guess my take on that comment was that they had a short list for people to buy the land the Cleveland site was on. They have announced they are looking to sell it, and also the East Tamaki site. Don't think they were saying that a short list of bidders for a cornerstone shareholding had been drawn up.

Yep you are right. Just a badly worded article. :o ....... or a Freudian slip ;)

[Ponda]

This company seems to be all over the place. It has had a 4.9% increase at the start of the day. Now at 43 cents. It reached 53 cents on Friday the 3rd and then went downhil all week and then opens up 2 today. What causes it flucuate so much?

[Ponda]

550,000 shares traded in the last 10 minutes. Something is finally happening.

P.S.
Does anybody know what 'SP' is in the Cond column of Recent Trades.
I haven't been able to find out where to see what the abreveations are

Thanks.

[777]

Off Direct Broking's site.

IN International
LT Late Reported
OS Overseas
OL Market Trade (too small for price setting)
PF Portfolio Marriage
SP Off Market
SS Short Sell
XX Extra-ordinary

[Ponda]

Thanks for that 777.
I use the National Bank Sharetrading platform and I couldn't find it in the search options.

[JoeBlogs]

Good start to the day including a fair bit of off shore interest.

My view is that the current sp is at a massive discount given the likelyhood that F&P will avoid the need to raise capital. Any ideas why it's still so depressed?

We should hear an announcement regarding sale of land soon.

[Financially dependant]

I bought some this morning because the chart was looking good...

ASB recommended a buy on the 30th April with a valuation of $1.30, the chart shows sp moving in a trading range with very little resistance above to valuation.
The RSI is trending up, OBV has just broken a down trend and sell side is thinning out.
I waited until today to see how the DOW went last night and it didn't disappoint.

[nwood]

I brought in at .47 last week

Also based on ASB recommendation, and good signs of share movement.

[shep]

I bought at 55c ages ago, and it's been a pretty rocky ride since. I'm currently considering selling off a bunch just to limit further risk, but... I have the gamble in me :/

-shep

[JoeBlogs]

Somehow I don't think now would be a good time to be selling....

30% Plus over 2 trading days with reasonable volume!

Annanz, I wouldn't be suprised if you break even by the end of June.

[nwood]

FPA declare no specific reason for share price increase after NZX inquiry

[biker]

FPA declare no specific reason for share price increase after NZX inquiry

But they did refer to an article that said the Whirlpool share price had recently gone up 150%

[Financially dependant]

I bought some this morning because the chart was looking good...

ASB recommended a buy on the 30th April with a valuation of $1.30, the chart shows sp moving in a trading range with very little resistance above to valuation.
The RSI is trending up, OBV has just broken a down trend and sell side is thinning out.
I waited until today to see how the DOW went last night and it didn't disappoint.

Sold out today, took the 15% and left some for the next punter....:)

Chart looking a little flat, so looking for another up trend.

Should fly now!

[seagull]

Today's Christchurch Press suggests Chinese firm Haier maybe checking the books and a

$200m rights issue may be on the cards. Noticed greater buying lately . Hopefully we will get a good deal. There could be good upside here IMHO.

[nwood]

Today's Christchurch Press suggests Chinese firm Haier maybe checking the books and a

$200m rights issue may be on the cards. Noticed greater buying lately . Hopefully we will get a good deal. There could be good upside here IMHO.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/2434691/F-P-200m-rights-issue-and-key-investor-in-prospect

Link to the article

[dartMonkey]

That's a shame ... I was looking forward to watching a volatile Monday morning and week ...

[JoeBlogs]

At least it means we'll finally know what's happening within the next few days.

If they announce a cornerstone investor + rights issue as some have speculated, do we see this as an immediate positive or negative for FPA? I guess it depends on the details, but surely a rights issue will spark some degree of selloff? Or is this more than offset by the potential new stakeholder? Would appreciate your thoughts.

[The Doctor]

hardly in a strong position are they?....any 'white knight' will screw them down...run for the hills.

[Financially dependant]

Sold out today, took the 15% and left some for the next punter....:)

Chart looking a little flat, so looking for another up trend.

Should fly now!

Bugger!:eek:

[moimoi]

well you got the flying part right!! ;-)

I find myself wondering with the recent successes of capital raising's...if in fact when the sun comes back out again and the Oz banks start knocking on doors offering to lend money again....will management politely suggest they bugger off...appears that shareholders are quite happy to sling more money into their companies.!!

[macduffy]

well you got the flying part right!! ;-)

I find myself wondering with the recent successes of capital raising's...if in fact when the sun comes back out again and the Oz banks start knocking on doors offering to lend money again....will management politely suggest they bugger off...appears that shareholders are quite happy to sling more money into their companies.!!

When the sun comes out again management won't be offering the huge discounts to the SP that they are currently having to - or at least, they shouldn't.
There's been some good offerings lately but one still needs to be a bit selective.

;)

[tsb]

Fisher & Paykel has had a co-operative relationship with Haier since 2004 and some Fisher & Paykel dishwashers are already made in Haier's Chinese factories.

Why buy a F&P when a Haire will do?

[Dr_Who]

Why buy a F&P when a Haire will do?

Is Haire listed on the market?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

DR Who: HAIER maybe in China The products I have seen make F&P look like Junk. Only a very small proportion of their production is marketed under their own name. Most of their product is produced under contract for other Brands.

[seagull]

Dr Who I believe Haeir are listed on the Shanghei and Hong Kong exchanges. Cheers

[Balance]

Fisher & Paykel has had a co-operative relationship with Haier since 2004 and some Fisher & Paykel dishwashers are already made in Haier's Chinese factories.

Why buy a F&P when a Haire will do?

F&P dishwashers made by Haier? News to me - where did you read this?

I guess a pertinent question is - why buy an Audi when a Skoda will do?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

I Think you might find a lot of Whirlpool product is made by HAIER as well

[beacon]

F&P appliances an Audi - you must be joking. Maybe you meant price wise. I give FPA less than a 50/50 chance even after capital raising. the world is changing...

I say they have a chance - only because of their enhanced agreement with Haier now ...

[Balance]

F&P appliances an Audi - you must be joking. Maybe you meant price wise. I give FPA less than a 50/50 chance even after capital raising. the world is changing...

I say they have a chance - only because of their enhanced agreement with Haier now ...

Analogy, matey, analogy.

I say they will do very well because they are a good company caught by the worse trading conditions since 1930. Recapitalised and revitalised.

Go Kiwi go!

[The Doctor]

wow..what a great deal..for FPA ..at least in the short term....missed it!

[nwood]

Anyone expect them to be this strong?

[The BOWMAN]

Anyone expect them to be this strong?

I wonder who is buying? It is not Haire, is it?

[Tanger]

ABN's latest note had them valued at 88c (ex rights), so I guess that implies $1.35 cum rights. If that's the case, then Haier will have just made a bucket load of cash. Given their entry price is around 56c, they are already sitting on a sizeable gain (around $30m).

[The BOWMAN]

ABN's latest note had them valued at 88c (ex rights), so I guess that implies $1.35 cum rights. If that's the case, then Haier will have just made a bucket load of cash. Given their entry price is around 56c, they are already sitting on a sizeable gain (around $30m).

88c ex rights, I wonder what kind of profit ABN is foreseeing. The market is full of idiots.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Haier made the decision it was better to get it this way than wait for the firesale when it went bust. Maybe to much risk that J Key might save it or that Whirlpool would be interested if F&P collapsed.

[Dr_Who]

The more I look into the Haier/FPA cooperation the more I am liking what I see. I am hoping that this opens a new upper end market into Asia for FPA. Under the stimulus package, the Chinese govt are paying their people to go out there and buy appliances.

[JoeBlogs]

BOWMAN

Morningstar give fair value at $1.75 for the NZ shares as at 29/5/09.

I initially assumed this was cum-rights, and they aren't too clear, however if you look at their forcast NPAT for FY10 of 83.3 m, and EPS of 11.7 c, this indicates an ex-rights valuation of $1.75 based on a P/E of 15 assuming around 730 m shares. This seems a bit too good to be true, am I missing something? Is 15 an inappropriate rating?

I definitely think under a buck is too cheap for these, and they make up a substantial part of my portfolio.

What I particularly like, is that current forecasts assume a depressed economy for the next couple of years, and gains are realised mainly through the global manufacturing stratigy (which is already exceeding expectations in terms of cost savings). There is significant upside risk to these conservative forecasts IMO.

Thoughts?

[macduffy]

BOWMAN

Morningstar give fair value at $1.75 for the NZ shares as at 29/5/09.

I initially assumed this was cum-rights, and they aren't too clear, however if you look at their forcast NPAT for FY10 of 83.3 m, and EPS of 11.7 c, this indicates an ex-rights valuation of $1.75 based on a P/E of 15 assuming around 730 m shares. This seems a bit too good to be true, am I missing something? Is 15 an inappropriate rating?

I definitely think under a buck is too cheap for these, and they make up a substantial part of my portfolio.

What I particularly like, is that current forecasts assume a depressed economy for the next couple of years, and gains are realised mainly through the global manufacturing stratigy (which is already exceeding expectations in terms of cost savings). There is significant upside risk to these conservative forecasts IMO.

Thoughts?


Well for a start the company's own forecast NPAT for FY10 ( per the Investment Statement and Prospectus ) is only $11.669m so Morningstar's forecast looks rather optimistic to say the least!
Personally, I think that a P/E of 15 for FPA is a bit rich in normal circumstances - I'd be looking at something closer to 10 once the position stabilises but for FY10 I don't think that profits or P/E's will be very meaningful.

;)

[Balance]

Comes down to what you think the alliance with Haier will do for the company. That's what the market will focus on in the next 12 months.

[macduffy]

Hi, Joe.

I think the Morningstar figure is a forecast EBIT ( Earnings before interest and tax) figure. Working back from the company's figures this looks like $87.4m.

;)

[Dr_Who]

When does the rights finish trading?

[nwood]

25th June......

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks guys

I thought something was suspect. There seem to be mistakes all through the morningstar report (the 83.3 m is clearly shown as forecast NPAT - their forecast EBIT is 86.7).

I'm picking the Haier tie-up will do more for F & P than the market has currently priced in. Plus the prospects for a future takeover have to bode well.

---------3/07(a)----3/08(a)----3/09(a)----3/10(e)
NPAT----61.2-------72.5----- -92.8------83.3
EPS-----16.7--------19.9---- -25.7-----11.7
(Deathstar estimates)

You can see the EPS takes into account extra shares in FY10 vs FY09 (ex-rights).
If they've based their fair value estimate on this (which it looks as though they have) I'll have difficulty trusting any of their reports again.

[biker]

When does the rights finish trading?


23rd June is the last day of rights trading.

25th June is the last day to pay for the entitlement.

[macduffy]

Hi, Joe.

I think the Morningstar figure is a forecast EBIT ( Earnings before interest and tax) figure. Working back from the company's figures this looks like $87.4m.

;)

Joe, for what it's worth I've put a small flea in someone's ear at Morningstar.

I think you'll find that they'll be rushing out a new review on FPA. Something to do with confusing FY10 with FY11!

;)

[Dr_Who]

Joe, for what it's worth I've put a small flea in someone's ear at Morningstar.

I think you'll find that they'll be rushing out a new review on FPA. Something to do with confusing FY10 with FY11!

;)

That is not very reassuring that one of us have to point out their analysts mistakes. :(

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks macduffy

I sent them an email, but I'm yet to hear anything.

[fwu005]

Dr Who I believe Haeir are listed on the Shanghei and Hong Kong exchanges. Cheers

See: http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh600690/nc.shtml

The price list in Yuan, NZ$ equals to price/4.3 at current exchange rate.

[Dr_Who]

See: http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh600690/nc.shtml

The price list in Yuan, NZ$ equals to price/4.3 at current exchange rate.


LOL.. the site is in Chinese. How are we suppose to read it?

[zs_cecil]

LOL.. the site is in Chinese. How are we suppose to read it?

Hi Dr Who

Google or Yahoo FINANCE actually has its share price chart and news update.

Following is Hair's stock chart


http://www.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A600690

[fwu005]

LOL.. the site is in Chinese. How are we suppose to read it?

Sorry, Try this link:
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ric=600690.SS

[macduffy]

Thanks macduffy

I sent them an email, but I'm yet to hear anything.

They reckon that they're aware of the problem but that it's related to a complex IT issue and may take a few days to resolve.

Hard to imagine how that " complex IT issue " only affects their review/analysis of FPA, but there you are!

:rolleyes:

[JoeBlogs]

Complex eh....... garbage in, garbage out? ;)

[winner69]

Amazing thread this one.

Started in 2004 with Phaedrus pointing out all the sell signals and except for a period in 2006 when they purchased Elba and raised $55m from instos it been downhill ever since .... and hardly ever gone above the 200MA .... now thats some long term downtrend

And all the good news and now its cheap talk has come to nought ... except a huge desruction of shareholder wealth over the last 5 years .... and it was ingnalled in the charts many times.

Even the last week one would have say the shareprice is weakening .... strangely (or maybe not) once it appraoched that 200MA line again

Full marks to the directors of F&P many years when they decided to split into FPH and FPA ..... maybe they saw the writing on the wall back then

A la NPX .... a consolidation coming up?

[rollypolly]

for those who think F&P will succeed in China, I suggest they think again and read the following article

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTP36410720090629

TAIPEI, June 29 (Reuters) - Haier Group, China's largest home appliance maker, may lower its Asia-Pacific sales growth target outside of China for this year as the global economic slowdown affects revenue, a senior company official said on Monday.

The group, which is the parent company of electronics maker Haier Electronics Group Co (1169.HK) and Qingdao Haier Refrigerator Co (600690.SS), last year had forecast revenue growth for this year of about 20 percent.

"Looking at our sales figures for January to May, we may have to revise our growth target for this year slightly downwards," Yan Xiaoming, head of the company's Asia-Pacific operations, told reporters.

"Japan is the only place in the region where we may be able to meet the current targets."

"We hope that starting from the third quarter, growth will be good in the second half of the year. We've hit a bottom, and it's now time for us to climb upwards," Yan said.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

the head of the Asia Pacific operation said "Japan is the only place in the region where we may be able to meet the current targets.". Hmmm...why is F&P focusing in China

[macduffy]

QUOTE. the head of the Asia Pacific operation said "Japan is the only place in the region where we may be able to meet the current targets.". Hmmm...why is F&P focusing in China QUOTE.

Two reasons, I would think.

First, because China is the better long term market bet.

Second, because a good look for a new cornerstone investor, necessary to shore up FPA's financial position, threw up Haier as the best ( only?) option.

;)

[biker]

QUOTE. the head of the Asia Pacific operation said "Japan is the only place in the region where we may be able to meet the current targets.". Hmmm...why is F&P focusing in China QUOTE.

Two reasons, I would think.

First, because China is the better long term market bet.

Second, because a good look for a new cornerstone investor, necessary to shore up FPA's financial position, threw up Haier as the best ( only?) option.

;)

Bearing in mind the target was 20% revenue growth Asia Pacific outside of china. And still only forecasting slightly less. I think rollypolly's inference that this indicates FPA may not succeed in China is drawing a pretty long bow!

[Balance]

Next step - Haier moves to at least 50%.

[Tanger]

Would need to make a full takeover offer to do that. Doesn't appear to be the Chinese style of doing things. Would be great for shareholders who have recently got into the stock, not so good for those that bought around the time of the Elba acquisition.

[Tee]

Looks like it is moving up. High volume too.

[dartMonkey]

Being bought in big chunks too by the 100000+ lots.
At odd times of the days over the last week ... early morning, or early avo', or just before closing, but never on the same day.
On the flip side there's been sells in big chunks too. Not unusual for 100000 to 200000 to appear instantly on the sell side.
Convinced myself this was a good prospect last week and bought in at .68.
Did me well for a 2 week trade in May. Hoping for a repeat.
Downside is the market abhors a vacuum but I'm taking the risk that it's an island type pattern.

[Balance]

Big buyer has been accumulating for weeks.

Probably now joined by traders as loose stock now taken out?

[JoeBlogs]

70 c is a critical level, looking for a possible break to the upside this week.

Someone picked up 1.5 million before the open today............. Interesting

[Tanger]

Whirlpool will release its Q2 results on Thursday (NZ time). This should provide some insight as to which way the FPA price will go this week. I agree Joe, a favourable result from Whirlpool could see a positive break out in the FPA share price. It is still trading at a discount to its peers.

[Tanger]

FPA starting to move upwards a bit. Whirlpool report Q2 at 6am EDT Wednesday (10pm NZ time today). Will be interesting to watch tomorrow to see what effect it has on the FPA shareprice as will give an indication of the state of the US appliance market.

[PartTimeTrader]

Got in at 70cents at lunch time today, I see it closed at 0.75 Hopefully Whirlpool beats analyst forecasts ;)

[Snoopy]

Would need to make a full takeover offer to do that. Doesn't appear to be the Chinese style of doing things. Would be great for shareholders who have recently got into the stock, not so good for those that bought around the time of the Elba acquisition.


'Elba Acquisition'? Last year I had a relative in the market for a new fridge. She was looking at an Elba and was asking where it sat in the F&P line up. She was told that Elba has been rolled out as a budget brand. But the interesting part of the conversation was yet to come.

The salesman told her that an F&P representative had called into the store, simply removed the F&P badge from the fridge and stuck on a new Elba logo. AFAIK the Elba brand has been created by F&P to link together appliances across different categories as 'budget appliances'. It was never 'acquired'.

SNOOPY

[Tanger]

Hi Snoppy. I think what you say is correct in that the Elba range in New Zealand is F&P's budget brand. I was actually referring to their acquisition of the Elba entities in Italy (hence where the name originated from) a few years ago (from memory they let existing shareholders buy new shares at the same price as they did the placement). It was part of the entry strategy into the European integrated kitchens market.

[JoeBlogs]

Whirlpool: EPS $1.04 vs 51c forecast

I also got in for a good number of FPA at 70c today - not sure we'll get much more (buy the rumour, sell the fact). WHR was always going to beat, it will be interesting to see how the market takes it after the good run-up the stock has had of late. I anticipate a correction before S&P 960 but there's still a bit of fuel in these earnings numbers so it will be interesting to see.

[JoeBlogs]

Yep, big sell off for WHR - down nearly 10% on cautious guidance I guess.

[dartMonkey]

Well I wasn't expecting this today.
It's quite capable of tanking by the end of the day but still.

Can anyone tell me the relevance of today's ann.?

[shasta]

Well I wasn't expecting this today.
It's quite capable of tanking by the end of the day but still.

Can anyone tell me the relevance of today's ann.?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FPA&E=ASX&N=557832

It means as Ms Lixia & Mr Yunjie are Directors of Haier Group (who in turn are substantial shareholders of FPA, meaning > 5% holding).

As per listing rules companies must have a number of independent directors on the companies board, this is to ensure ALL shareholders are treated equally & that any related party issues are above board.

I would assume this means they will have to stand down as Directors of FPA, & another two independent directors will need to be found/elected.

I'd be weary if they were to stay on, & more directors were bought in, = more $$$

[dartMonkey]

Thanks Shasta,
I was a little worried that it might mean they might be asked to stand down ...
and that it might sour the relationship ...
but it is nothing more than naive paranoia.
If it meant keeping everybody happy I'd rather they spend the money.

Didn't think it'd do this today after Whirlpool's results.
Although what initially attracted me to this one this time was that it went up a couple of weeks ago when the DOWn went down 3%.
I suppose Balance was right (although he's amended his post) that this is one more influenced by China's recovery or expectation thereof.

Slow stochastic and RSI in or nearing overbought.
Nearing resistance at .82 which probably means .80.
Wouldn't mind some analysis from someone who actually knows what they're talking about though.

[shasta]

Thanks Shasta,
I was a little worried that it might mean they might be asked to stand down ...
and that it might sour the relationship ...
but it is nothing more than naive paranoia.
If it meant keeping everybody happy I'd rather they spend the money.

Didn't think it'd do this today after Whirlpool's results.
Although what initially attracted me to this one this time was that it went up a couple of weeks ago when the DOWn went down 3%.
I suppose Balance was right (although he's amended his post) that this is one more influenced by China's recovery or expectation thereof.

Slow stochastic and RSI in or nearing overbought.
Nearing resistance at .82 which probably means .80.
Wouldn't mind some analysis from someone who actually knows what they're talking about though.

Does look overbought, though the Bollinger bands were quite tight

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=FPA&exchange=NZSE&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

[elZorro]

There's something wrong with that stochastic formula, look at the price now, 84c..

-elZorro-

[fwu005]

AMP is a big holder now. Never be to late to buy into FPA before reach to $2.
All disclosures regard to substantial holding are all stake increased. Do you think they will start selling at current price level ?

[buns]

Thoughts on the impact of John giving it up?

[Dr_Who]

Bugger! Had a buy in at 77 and the low went to 78! Hopefully world wide markets will create a bit more negitivity overnight and I can reset for t'morrow ... that said hanging back a further looks prudent ... circa 74. Target buy reset at 88. Any thoughts?

(ps. I'm accumulating)

You got what you wish for.

China down nearly 6%

[zs_cecil]

I notice that there were several big volume SP happened to this stock. What would this indicate?

[Ash]

Got in this morning at 0.73 (averaging down total shares held @ 0.78)

[COLIN]

(averaging down total shares held @ 0.78)

That's a "no, no!". Don't tell Phaedrus, whatever you do. He'll have your intestines for garters.

[Balance]

Making a move higher.

FPA has fallen behind Whirlpool and Electrolux by 25%. Institutions switching out of them into FPA.

Take the opportunity to load-up on this stock - Haier will take it over sooner than later.

[Tanger]

FPA seems to have slipped back a bit on the drop out of the NZX 15 and Bongards departure. Looks to be good value at this price, but their recovery is likely still to be a bit of a way off, as people are still unlikely to be jumping back into buying appliances.

[winner69]

Surely not -- talking to their bankers about breaching debt convenants so soon after all the new capital

Report is dated today as well - if true what a disaster ... and in the press first as well


F&P predicts annual loss, blaming weak US sales
4:00AM Friday Sep 25, 2009

Fisher & Paykel Appliances said it expects a full-year loss because of weak US sales.

The net loss will be as much as $5 million (in the year ending March 31) compared with a previously forecast $11.7 million profit, the company said. Excluding unusual items, earnings will be $20 million to $23 million, down from a previously forecast $32.8 million, it said.

Fisher & Paykel raised $149.2 million from shareholders in June and sold a 20 per cent stake to China's Haier Corp to reduce debt. Higher than expected levels of competition and continued depressed market conditions meant full-year US sales would be 12 per cent lower than forecast in May, it said.

The company has been in talks with bankers because trading in the six months to September 30 is expected to breach debt covenants.

- BLOOMBERG

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10599419

[Tanger]

There is a trading update on the ASX late yesterday. I'd imagine it will be released to the NZX first thing this morning. Breach of covenants appears to relate to the 20 variance from PFI. There are comments in the release that they will give further updates re banking covenants before 30 September (probably updating on any agreements with banks).

[winner69]

Thanks Tanger

But not a good look though is it being so far our with their estimates of a few months ago - estimates used to get cash out of shareholders eh. Reducing a forecast of $32m to $20m is a decent downgrade

Did you read Stranger Dangers very good post on the PGC thread -- wonder how many mum and dad shareholders are now 'overweight' FPA (because they took up the rights issue) thinking that all theie problems were over - and find out that maybe not

[winner69]

.... and as the NBR says they told investors last month it was on track for its forecast profit .... and the NBR mentions writing down the value of US assets

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/profit-warning-fps-us-market-tumble-111772

That'll be OK as that would be non-cash eh -- but was cash once -- and is part of the current value of the company

What a disaster

[Tanger]

Interesting that the share price has dropped from around 80c at the end of last week to 74c at the close of play yesterday. Perhaps a bit of this announcement has already been priced in?? No doubt there will be some panic selling this morning, but I'd expect that once that passes, there will be a bit of a bounce (not to where it finished last night mind you). Their debt reduction programme is ahead of schedule, they have a cornerstone shareholder with experience in the market, a new Chinese market to work into and their NZ sales were ahead of the PFI forecasts. I don't think they mention it, but I would suspect that most people reporting in NZ$ will be finding it tough to reach their NZ$ sales targets in the US market given where the NZ/US$ is.

[winner69]

Very optimistic Tanger.

Winner - non-cash you say? After they said 32mill profit? And you believe them?

Not going to be a good day for FPA. I'll be dumping first thing and review at at 11:30. Methinks FPA is going to get punished big time.


Belg - you don't piss off investors do you with surprises -- esp so soon after taking the cash off them

Not a good look

[PartTimeTrader]

Interesting that the share price has dropped from around 80c at the end of last week to 74c at the close of play yesterday. Perhaps a bit of this announcement has already been priced in?? No doubt there will be some panic selling this morning, but I'd expect that once that passes, there will be a bit of a bounce (not to where it finished last night mind you). Their debt reduction programme is ahead of schedule, they have a cornerstone shareholder with experience in the market, a new Chinese market to work into and their NZ sales were ahead of the PFI forecasts. I don't think they mention it, but I would suspect that most people reporting in NZ$ will be finding it tough to reach their NZ$ sales targets in the US market given where the NZ/US$ is.

From the price action this year, I would say there is a fair bit of insider trading going on with FPA. The movements of late are very suspect.

[COLIN]

Got in this morning at 0.73 (averaging down total shares held @ 0.78)

More opportunity to average down further, today, Ash! But hopefully you did heed the earlier warning about the dangers of such an approach.

[Ash]

That was close phew, I sold out at 0.75, with NZD $$ holding strong and prospecting of housing market not going up for a while..

[POSSUM THE CAT]

How long before Haier make a takeover offer for this Dog at 5cents per share

[Stranger_Danger]

Why would anyone take this over?

If you want a museum, buy Te Papa.

[Hoop]

How long before I make a takeover offer at 5c per share? ;)

Hmmmm:cool: ......FPA at 5c per share

Number of shares on issue 724,235,162

724,235,162 X NZ5cents = NZ$36.211M.....Hmmm:cool::cool:

Nah...can't afford it;)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Belgarion Haier in box seat banking covenants broken either a lowball take over offer or let it gradually fall into receivership and buy it off receiver

[Balance]

Can just imagine Haier with a big grin in the background .... do they make their move now?

Nice big volume going through - someone is accumulating.

Should be shorting if you think it is going into receivership.

[Tee]

"North American sales revenue in U.S. dollars will be about 12% below levels assumed in its May prospectus, the company said today. Normalised EBIT for the full-year will be $19 million to $24 million below the $87.7 million forecast."

Negative, and not good at all. Is the GlobaL Manufacturing Strategy working? Not as well as projected.

[macduffy]

"North American sales revenue in U.S. dollars will be about 12% below levels assumed in its May prospectus, the company said today. Normalised EBIT for the full-year will be $19 million to $24 million below the $87.7 million forecast."

Negative, and not good at all. Is the GlobaL Manufacturing Strategy working? Not as well as projected.

A bit soon to come to that conclusion, surely?

The last year or so has hardly been a good time for any strategy, let alone a "new" one.

[Tee]

A bit soon to come to that conclusion, surely?

The last year or so has hardly been a good time for any strategy, let alone a "new" one.

How true. At the time of my posting, I was biased. Considering that manufacturing costs will be lower in the long run, the said strategy cannot be faulted.

[Tee]

IMHO
Haier will be a passive investor in the medium term.
The China market is hugh, but don't count any sale until such a time they are made. On the same note it is prudent not to anticipate profits until it is realised.
The whiteware market is evolving, ELBA is stocked in shops and less of F & P.
The worldwide market is evolving, low cost manufacturers are making inroads and growing.
Technology is not a barrier to competitors, design and esthetics can be learned.

FPA will have to retain and grow market share. And certainly not to increase whiteware prices in the midst of a recession.

Disclosure, my first washer was a F &P, and my fridge is a F & P.

[Tee]

If the manufacturing costs will be lower in the long run, the said strategy cannot be faulted.

Just re-worded that for you Tee as Mexico is costing more than was expected ...

Hah....that's right.

[bung5]

The ACC has slipped below 5 percent. I'd guess that FPA would no longer fit within the parameters that the ACC are bound by so I expect they'll be sellers for some time ... The big question tho ... Who's the big buyer now?

It seems that ACC keeps selling when it crashes then buying when its up. Somebody doesn't like there employer.

[dartMonkey]

Belg, I was thinking you were being optimistic looking for a drop to .74 :eek:
New CEO and/or updated trading figures can't be far away.
Doesn't mean either will be well accepted tho' ...

[winner69]

Most of the huge loss was signaled but it is some loss eh ... even at an operating level breakeven at best (reported EBIT before one offs less interest)

One thing though - in spite of extracting $190m from shareholders (new and old) shareholder equity has only increased by $35m since March

Equity at march was $565m - add the new shareholder cah of $190m gives a new figure of $$755m -- take off the $82m reported loss - gives $673m -- reported equity at Sept was $590m .... whats the $83m difference?

At least they expect a recovery in H@ -- go for it Belg ... really cheap shares today but not for me.

[Lizard]

Hi Belg,

To me, Waters taking the lead seems like a good sign. I can imagine he has been champing at the bit to take this lumbering rhinoceros in hand. Seems to me that the next chartist "buy" should have the fundamental backing to improve the odds for a long term trade.

[root]

I'm a fundy. I'm acting now. I'll let you choose Liz, as to whether you think that's a good sign or not ;)
East Tamaki and Rayong Refrigeration plants running flat out to meet demand, probably a bargain at 0.59.

[Anna Naum]

Hi Belg,

To me, Waters taking the lead seems like a good sign. I can imagine he has been champing at the bit to take this lumbering rhinoceros in hand. Seems to me that the next chartist "buy" should have the fundamental backing to improve the odds for a long term trade.

Does anyone remember how Ralph did when he was running the ex Aussie whitegoods company Email?

[root]

08/12/2009 09:48:28 Ongoing Disclosure Notice (John Gilks) (Disclosure of Directors Relevant Interests)

Director buying shares with an On-market Trade, maybe he thinks they are going to meet the Dec 31 EBITDA covenant of $20 million.

[root]

3. Going concern
The Group has reported a net loss after tax for the six months ended 30 September 2009 of $82.4 million (Sept 2008 loss of $7.3 million;
March 2009 loss of $95.3 million). Difficult trading conditions continued to be experienced in all markets, especially in the United States of
America, significantly impacting sales revenue for the current period. As a consequence, impairments and fair valuation adjustments (largely
related to North America) totalling $55.6 million after tax were also recognised in the period.
On 30 September 2009, the Company announced that its Banking Syndicate had accepted revised forecasts which were used to set new
budget performance covenants. The new budget performance covenants require the Guaranteeing Group (defined as the Appliances business
plus any interest or dividends paid to the Appliances business by the Finance business) to achieve a normalised EBITDA of $20 million for the
3 months ending 31 December 2009 and $50 million for the six months ending 31 March 2010 (refer Note 13). The revised forecasts were for
the Guaranteeing Group to achieve normalised EBITDA of $28.3 million and $65.4 million for each reporting period respectively.
The unaudited October normalised EBITDA was approximately 10% lower than the revised forecasts for October and this has eroded the
forecast headroom against the budget performance covenant.
Whilst the Directors believe the Company will continue to comply with all its banking covenants, compliance is dependent on no further
deterioration of market conditions and the ongoing security of the supply chain. Should market conditions deteriorate further, then there is some
risk that the Company will not achieve the minimum required normalised EBITDA in either the December 2009 or March 2010 reporting periods.
Nevertheless, as the Directors at this time are confident the Company will comply with all banking covenants for the foreseeable future, these
financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis.

Read: Probably make the December and March EBITDA targets if market conditions don't worsen

[PartTimeTrader]

big movement last 2 days upwards, maybe someone knows something we don't.

hoping they are right since i hold a bit of FPA at present.

[root]

big movement last 2 days upwards, maybe someone knows something we don't.

hoping they are right since i hold a bit of FPA at present.
The SP always moves up as a hurdle approaches in aticipation of FPA eventually clearing one...good time to hold FPA.

[Entrep]

Yes I picked up some more at those stupid sub 60 prices.

[root]

Looking back 6 months the SP would need to move some way through the 65c barrier to really be a new trend, having said that there should be some good triggers for the technically minded. I didn't base my buying on charts anyway.

[Entrep]

Why did this tank under 60c again?

[Tanger]

There have been a few large special crossings this afternoon. Also, some interesting comments coming out of Haier in terms of their growth plans for the next 3-5 years. Perhaps some better times ahead for FPA (and the appliance market in general). FPA must still be a potential takeover target for Haier at some point down the road.

[root]

Agreed Tanger, bigger volumes today, share price not moving much. Haier has always been interested in F&Ps "high end" products and Intellectual Property. (The Haier products are relatively simple). Interesting point about a future aquisition.

[ratkin]

Dont think i would touch them.

Went to look for a refrigerator today, never realised just how many companies now make these things.
All the companies you normally associate with televisions are now making them at dirt cheap prices.

Looked at mitsubishis , samsungs , panasonics , even sharp are now in the fridge game. Didnt see any fisher and paykels though

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Ratkin Fisher & Paykel will not normally allow them in any shop that sells a competing product.

[troyvdh]

..ratkin...could not agree more....personally for me (and for rentals) I have purchased Simpson...it appears that almost every year folk recommend this company...beats me...when i look at elba the range....very very basic....sad really....

[Doyle]

The whole elba range was misconceived. They thought they could sell crap to compete with crap, but have just reduced the Fisher and Pykal brand to crap in the process. Make no mistake, genuine fiaher and pykal top loaders are the best on the market, and when it comes to refridgeration only the top of the range whirlpools and simpsons come close. But with Alba all they have been doing is taking Haier appliances and rebranding them as Alba. In my opinion should have stuck to the top end of the market. The others were starting to catch up, but Fisher and Pykal were still ahead in many areas. The dishdraw was revolutionary and should have put their time and money into trying to develop another revelation. Instead they have started to reduce themselves to just another appliance manufacturer and that is a battle they are unlikely to win.

I want to buy shares in this company, and maybe I will. But in reality I can see Fisher and pykal becoming part of a competitive appliance market and there is no money in that.

[root]

I believe the Elba range of refrigerators are the old F&P Tasman range rebranded with the Italian Elba cookware brand they aquired. There may also be one or two outsourced sizes.

[Dr_Who]

Dont think i would touch them.

Went to look for a refrigerator today, never realised just how many companies now make these things.
All the companies you normally associate with televisions are now making them at dirt cheap prices.

Looked at mitsubishis , samsungs , panasonics , even sharp are now in the fridge game. Didnt see any fisher and paykels though

Yep, thats one of the reasons why I didnt buy FPA shares. If I dont buy their products, why would I buy their shares?

[Balance]

Dont think i would touch them.

Went to look for a refrigerator today, never realised just how many companies now make these things.
All the companies you normally associate with televisions are now making them at dirt cheap prices.

Looked at mitsubishis , samsungs , panasonics , even sharp are now in the fridge game. Didnt see any fisher and paykels though

Wow! Welcome to the real world!

[Balance]

Some of the posters have gotten really negative - good sign!

[Balance]

Edging higher.

Always a good sign when certain posters here get all negative, or for that matter, all positive.

Do the opposite!

[root]

Chart looks promising. Good demand for Laundry products out of the Thailand factory, most of which are being sold into Australia so the exchange rate is helpful as well.

[Phaedrus]

I prefer to view FPA as being in a trading range, Belg. It has been crabbing sideways for 4 months now.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FPA310.gif

[root]

Was a lot of sell orders at 65 but they are being eaten away.......65 is the barrier.

[root]

Belgarion, with this stock I have recently been trading on this sideways trend (buying 58, selling 65) has worked pretty well for me. I suppose at some stage I'll get caught out when it breaks through the 65 cent barrier. More fun than PGW.

[Phaedrus]

Someone is still unloading ...If someone was unloading (FPA was being distributed) the OBV would be falling. If FPA was being accumulated, the OBV would be rising. The OBV has been flat for 5 months. Volumes are very, very low, so no-one of any consequence is doing anything at all. Stasis.


Market generally looks overbought ....Perhaps, but technically, FPA is neither overbought nor oversold right now.

[root]

That explains the big numbers on the left hand side of the depth table.

[root]

The banks don't require the Budget Performance Test (EBITDA targets) anymore due to reduced debt levels, but I'm sure interested in seeing the EBITDA figures, there's only so much land to sell, at some stage you have to push a lot of white boxes out the door.

[root]

Looks like FPA will announce a profit, profit next year to be re-invested in product development, full steam ahead for the next year. Exclusive Dealership Arrangement to go. Goodbye to the 65c barrier.

[root]

New marketing campaign set for April, part of the new direction for brand awareness. TV1 News at 6:40pm on Easter Monday 45 second advert. Lost my sock?

[RRR]

Article in interest.co.nz about F&P appliances complaints in a US consumer website. Not a good reading at all.

Disc-I hold

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/homeowners/fisher_paykel.html

[Anna Naum]

Another problem for FPA

Whirlpool Corporation Announces Leadership Changes in Product Development Functions
BENTON HARBOR, Mich., April 22, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR) announced two key leadership appointments in its Global Product Organization. Christian Gianni has been named vice president, Global Engineering and Technology; and Patrick Schiavone has been named vice president, Global Consumer Design. Both appointments are effective immediately. Gianni joins from New Zealand-based Fisher and Paykel Appliances; and Schiavone from Michigan-based Ford Motor Company.

Gianni will be accountable for global engineering and technology development and operations around the world. Schiavone will be accountable for consumer-focused product design of the company's appliances across its global portfolio of brands in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia.

"We are pleased to welcome Christian and Patrick to Whirlpool Corporation," said David Szczupak, executive vice president, Global Product Organization. "The broad experience and proven leadership that Christian and Patrick bring to Whirlpool Corporation will ensure we continue to drive product leadership through technology, engineering and design across our leading product portfolio of brands."

Gianni brings 22 years of experience in the home appliance industry to Whirlpool Corporation. He began his career at Fisher & Paykel, where he started in 1988 as a design engineer. He was named general manager of Engineering in 2000 and was responsible for product design across all global platforms. In 2004, he was named chief technology officer, where he led the launch of numerous global products, implemented a global manufacturing strategy and facilitated improvements in product delivery and quality.

[root]

Anna, Gianni had already been shuffled sideways and wasn't going to be leading Engineering at F&P. Maybe he'll be revitalised at Whirlpool.

[Anna Naum]

Anna, Gianni had already been shuffled sideways and wasn't going to be leading Engineering at F&P. Maybe he'll be revitalised at Whirlpool.

Thanks, I remember an AGM a few years ago, at which Mr Paykel suggested that Gianni was one of the superstars of the management team. Things must have changed. Whirlpool os a lot bigger and more successful than FPA so maybe it was FPA that got it wrong?

[root]

Good question. I was reluctant to suggest that, but yes he is in charge of a lot more Engineers at Whirlpool, we'll see how they go with new product implementations and "time to market" over the next 5-7 years and we'll have an answer.

[Anna Naum]

Good question. I was reluctant to suggest that, but yes he is in charge of a lot more Engineers at Whirlpool, we'll see how they go with new product implementations and "time to market" over the next 5-7 years and we'll have an answer.

Maybe Whirlpool will be able to get things to market a lot quicker than FPA....

[winner69]

Woolworths to open 150 big box Home Depot lookalikes over the next few years to take on Bunnings

Like Home Depot a big part of their offer will be DIFM (buy from us and we will get someone to do the work for you) and no doubnt like Home Depot in the US they will have plenty of appliances in store

I'd say this good news for FPA

[Anna Naum]

Woolworths to open 150 big box Home Depot lookalikes over the next few years to take on Bunnings

Like Home Depot a big part of their offer will be DIFM (buy from us and we will get someone to do the work for you) and no doubnt like Home Depot in the US they will have plenty of appliances in store

I'd say this good news for FPA

Price will be everything to these guys so can not see FPA winning that game, but you may be right

[macduffy]

I'd say this good news for FPA

I don't see more appliance outlets translating into overall higher appliance sales, but perhaps better prices for consumers. Woolworths are renowned for their "hard bargaining" with suppliers.

[winner69]

The best thing for appliance sales is increasing divorce/separation rates

Gerry Harvey once said with a smile he loves it when he hears of more couples breaking up and going their seperate ways .... with a grin he says thats another household that needs to get furnished

[winner69]

Price will be everything to these guys so can not see FPA winning that game, but you may be right

Maybe it will be bad for FPA then

If these new stores take 10% of the market (and FPA ain't part of the deal) then they lose share from that lost from the appliance stores

Or if they are part of the deal with Woolworths they will get screwed on price ... all appliances will become cheaper ,,, and all manufacturers will lose out

Who would want to be a supplier having to sell to these outfits

[root]

The trick is going back to competing with high end products and intellectual property, instead of an arm wrestle with every low end manufacturer for an ever decreasing margin.

[macduffy]

The trick is going back to competing with high end products and intellectual property, instead of an arm wrestle with every low end manufacturer for an ever decreasing margin.

I may be wrong in this but I suspect that most of the IP talent went the way of FPH when the company was split several years ago?

[Anna Naum]

Good question. I was reluctant to suggest that, but yes he is in charge of a lot more Engineers at Whirlpool, we'll see how they go with new product implementations and "time to market" over the next 5-7 years and we'll have an answer.

With all the changes at FPA we may have to wait 5-7 years to see anything really new from FPA

[Heke]

If it takes 5 - 7 years for FPA to introduce a new product, FPA could have disappeared by then. Their TV advertisement is so abysmal and says nothing about quality and new innovation. There may be a hidden message in what that old chap is alluding to.

[root]

Have they still got the design expertise, I don't know. It will depend on what their staff retention policy has been over the recession, the same applies to a lot of other companies.

I was suggesting that a 5-7 year time frame might be useful for evaluating Whirlpool's performance ie. more than one new product. Agree about the adverts, they are hopeless.

[Anna Naum]

Whirlpool rose 10% to $112.42 for the 2nd biggest rally in the S&P 500. The world's largest appliance maker boosted its 2010 forecast for profit to between $8.10 and $8.60/share, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $6.83.

Might be the reason for the uptick in FPA today.

[root]

Whirlpool rose 10% to $112.42 for the 2nd biggest rally in the S&P 500. The world's largest appliance maker boosted its 2010 forecast for profit to between $8.10 and $8.60/share, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $6.83.

Might be the reason for the uptick in FPA today.

Lots of buy pressure last few days, might still be linked to the improved Whirlpool guidance? Does FPA report next month?

[Jonathan]

@ Belgarion: What do you mean by "took a while to sink in but volume suggests it finally has"?

[biker]

J BEWARE from hold to buy with a 12 month target of 80c is probably all grist to the mill.

[root]

You could be right, looks like the first step. The SP will have to go down then up again before we'll know if it's a new trend. Slow Stochastic suggests we are close to the top of this little rally. (To my untrained eye)

[root]

Crikey, just checked the depth to see if the sellers are meeting the buyers. They ain't by a long shot. Seems like FPA could be back in fashion. Shame we haven't quite got the volume to prove it tho.

Don't they usually report some time in May?

[fwu005]

Breakout coming (and not before time!). Last time to fill you boots. I have :)

Buyers' pressure is very high and sellers are very weak.

[root]

Sitting at 68, the resistance line has been well broken.

[Jonathan]

Its been some time since FPA were in fashion? What next PPG lol

[CJ]

Don't they usually report some time in May?

yes 567890

[root]

Thanks CJ (not sure what the numbers mean?). FPA might be coming off this rally slightly, interested to see what the next low is.

[Jonathan]

Hopefully mid 60's would be nice

[CJ]

Thanks CJ (not sure what the numbers mean?). posts must be more than 10 characters so I was just counting.

[macduffy]

posts must be more than 10 characters so I was just counting.

Thanks for the clarification.

I thought (imagined) that it was some code meaning that an announcement was due in the period 5-10 May!

[root]

$26.5m worth of asset impairments to be anounced in the FY result, not the news I was hoping for, OUCH!

[float]

How do you feel Fisher & Paykel will do coming out of the recession?

Fisher & Paykel has recieved some bad press over the last couple of weeks.
Most of which was centered around the DishDrawers lack of quality and performance. On Mondays TVONE news, Fisher & Paykel was mentioned in an article questioning the quality of numerous brands that should or shouldn't be trusted. Fisher & Paykel falling in the later category.
Another public complaint I heard was a radio presenters frustration with the DishDrawers performance.

Hopefully these problems will be resolved as it has a huge impact on brand recognition (quality) over the whole Fisher & Paykel range. Something sacred, in a market with fierce competition.

Also, I suspect that the average New Zealander is less likely to embrace P.B.L.P (Patriotic Brand Loyalty Purchasing), since some of the manufacturing has left our shores.

And to finish, a question:
Why are Fisher & Paykel appliances never competing on a showroom floor with other brands (excluding Hairer and Elba products).
You would think that a good product, at a good price, would sell regardless.
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...............
All of the above being my oberservations, havent kept intouch with the company since i sold my shares a year ago.

[ratkin]

And to finish, a question:
Why are Fisher & Paykel appliances never competing on a showroom floor with other brands (excluding Hairer and Elba products).
You would think that a good product, at a good price, would sell regardless.
.

Because the korean machines are more than satisfactory and are half the price

[macduffy]

And to finish, a question:
Why are Fisher & Paykel appliances never competing on a showroom floor with other brands (excluding Hairer and Elba products).
You would think that a good product, at a good price, would sell regardless.
.................................................. ..................................................

Well of course that was under the now outlawed exclusivity arrangement that FPA imposed on their distributors.

As others have noted, competition is now much keener. It's hard to see where their advantage lies now that they are perceived to be "dumbing down" the F and P brand in favour of "plain vanilla" Elba.

[float]

I agree, its a fine balance choosing which markets to compete in. Exclusive niche markets with truckloads of innovation at a premium, or "plain vanilla" stock at greater volume with little distinction from its competitiors.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Float they are trying to sell junk at premium prices read the latest consumer report on there dishwashers especially the dish drawer

[winner69]

But completely expected. Its a non-cash write-off of the carrying value of assets including goodwill. FPA went on a bit of a spending frenzy a few years back with their "global manufacturing strategy" and, like FBU, are realising that in the current climate the book value is inappropriate in todays market. As W69 likes to remind us all - such write off involved real cash in past period - but won't affect new holders much. Not looking for too many suprises come 28 ... but you just never know ;)

.... but didn't they write off $55m or soemthing in the first half result as well?

Proudly they announce it is non-cash tranasction (yes it was cash once) and probably doesn't change the future outlook

But belg you are a fundamnetalist so you would agree that over time (or at the end of the day) a stock will find its natural fundamental valuation

true? if so then the announcement has just taken 4 cents of the 'fundamental value' of each FPA share .... or 6-7%

Irrespective of other valuation ratios people use the most rusted by many real fundamentalists is MVA where MVA is the difference between the market cap and shareholder equity (ie how much value has the market added to shareholders equity). MVA is also often seen as the NPV of all future economic value added

FPA is interesting - Shareholder equity (before these last write down) is $$590m ... but the market values that equity at $456m .... so the market is saying that FPA is going to destroy $134m of shareholder value in the future .... essentially saying FPA operations are not covering its cost of capital over time.

With this latest bombshell asuming MVA stays constant (after all the future outlook is unchanged) than the market cap should fall by $30m ..... 4 cents a share ..... sometime because at the end of the day fundamnetal value always wins out

Often FPA fundamentals are a bit clouded and messy because it is 2 companies ... a dud manufacturing arm and a maybe OK finance company ... and generally they are valued differently.

Based on the last balance sheet FPA needs to make at $70m NPAT if it is to start creating shareholder wealth again .... about the most they have ever done but not impossible .... but market saying unlikely

[JoeBlogs]

Float

My two cent's worth on your question: "How do you feel Fisher & Paykel will do coming out of the recession?"

I expect them to do very well because they have the innovation, maneuverability, and backing to do so. It wasn't so long ago that folk were writing them off due to capital issues. They proved then, and I believe have maintained the stance that they are a major player who is willing and able to move with the punches, and deliver the world renowned quality we all know them for.

[peat]

China is bizarre , here we have a 28 billion$ company with a 20% holding in FPA and this is what is said about its owner

It is even unclear who owns Haier, with Mr Carmichael cryptically describing it as a co-operative but not in a Western sense. "The structure is very complicated even to Chinese people, it [is] not transparent, it's opaque."
Mr Carmichael said the company was not state-owned although the Qingdao municipal government had some involvement when the company was founded in 1984.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3729383/Fisher-Paykel-builds-relations-with-Haier-power

2623

[shambles]

Fingers crossed for results out tomorrow - hoping they are at the top end of indications... Would be nice to see a close above .60 end Friday.

[root]

Not a bad result considering the impairments that were signalled. Normalised profit of $18 mil getting eaten up by more impairments, hopefully that's the last of those. The ELBA branding (purchased 3-4 years ago from Delonghi) was a step in the wrong direction, costly to purchase and was perceived by the consumer as a sub standard product.

Now they have stopped flying support staff and plant equipment aroung starting up overseas factories some of the abnormals should reduce. Should be a bit leaner after $8.3 mil worth of redundancies.

[Lizard]

The foundation has been put in place, but is it time yet?

Not much in the result to get anyone excited yet. By my numbers, an "optimistic" scenario for FPA next year would be about $36m NPAT - still only a forward P/E of about 11 at current prices. Yet their outlook statement was so tempered, that even the optimistic scenario seems daunting. EV/EBIT is currently around 10 (high!) although looks as though it could fall to a more reasonable 8 on an annualised second half. (I've "normalised" everything).

Maybe bit of a wait and see until August agm guidance (or at least until about two weeks before, given the way FPA tends to move in advance). Who knows, perhaps the GST increase in NZ will drive a mini-boom in sales of larger items? Though, saving 2.5% by buying earlier is probably not that attractive to consumers now that they are used to massive retailer discounts!

This has the potential to be a good recovery trade at some stage, but I can't get excited about it at current price and outlook. I will just keep on close watch at this stage.

[root]

The foundation has been put in place, but is it time yet?

Not much in the result to get anyone excited yet. By my numbers, an "optimistic" scenario for FPA next year would be about $36m NPAT - still only a forward P/E of about 11 at current prices. Yet their outlook statement was so tempered, that even the optimistic scenario seems daunting. EV/EBIT is currently around 10 (high!) although looks as though it could fall to a more reasonable 8 on an annualised second half. (I've "normalised" everything).

Maybe bit of a wait and see until August agm guidance (or at least until about two weeks before, given the way FPA tends to move in advance). Who knows, perhaps the GST increase in NZ will drive a mini-boom in sales of larger items? Though, saving 2.5% by buying earlier is probably not that attractive to consumers now that they are used to massive retailer discounts!

This has the potential to be a good recovery trade at some stage, but I can't get excited about it at current price and outlook. I will just keep on close watch at this stage.

Would have been nice to see some profit guidance before the AGM, maybe the crystal ball is a bit cloudy.

[shambles]

Thanks Belgarion, I'll be sure to read back through the PGW thread to catch up.
Had hoped that the break above resistance of .65 to .68 a couple of weeks back had been a buy signal. I was trading .57 - .65 in the meantime and making healthy profit's.
Now it's come back and below it's previous support I'm a bit confused. Own some at .65 and at .57
@ Root - yes, some guidance would have been useful!
Cheers

[elZorro]

Maybe we're seeing the lowest FPA price for awhile at 55c. At least that's what Ralph Waters (director) is expecting. I assume he purchased 180,000 shares at 55c on Friday 28th May. If so, that's a good FA indicator.

I'm not so interested in the NZ domestic market. Will the F&P brand on an upmarket appliance appeal to Chinese consumers? If it does, plenty of sales near the factory. I like the way FPA seem to have dropped all their one-off costs and writeoffs into the last financial year. Has anyone else done some FA work on F&P lately? Regards.

[root]

Maybe we're seeing the lowest FPA price for awhile at 55c. At least that's what Ralph Waters (director) is expecting. I assume he purchased 180,000 shares at 55c on Friday 28th May. If so, that's a good FA indicator.

I'm not so interested in the NZ domestic market. Will the F&P brand on an upmarket appliance appeal to Chinese consumers? If it does, plenty of sales near the factory. I like the way FPA seem to have dropped all their one-off costs and writeoffs into the last financial year. Has anyone else done some FA work on F&P lately? Regards.

If you're looking for yield out of FPA I'd wait, if you are trading fill your boots at 55 [DELETE], 54.

[shambles]

Happy to see that the original support of .57 has been comfortably broken - was a bit worried it may become a resistance.
Will be interesting to see if FPA trade in the .57 - .65 range of the last few months pre correction.
Any thoughts?

[root]

Happy to see that the original support of .57 has been comfortably broken - was a bit worried it may become a resistance.
Will be interesting to see if FPA trade in the .57 - .65 range of the last few months pre correction.
Any thoughts?

Hoping for the same thing Shambles, would be nice to see the old sideways pattern re-establish itself. An upwards trend would be even better but I'm not holding my breath.

[fwu005]

He arrived this morning accompanied by 20 Chinese journalists and 80 businessmen and will visit Fisher & Paykel Appliances, later today.

well exposed to China media, a good bonus for FPA brand in China

[Jaa]

Sounds like an exact parallel of what the FPA managers and NZ media just did in China. So far this really had been a model alliance which bodes well for the future.

[Vtrader]

Spent some of Sunday morning reading this thread. As it is on the agenda for the Hamilton meeting wednesday.
One post that really stood out was #141 and comments similar around that time.

For my own part we have just had need to purchase a new washing machine. Last machine was a F&P smart drive machine and (ahem! has been in more than 12 houses over 10 years) and has been a good investment over this period. 2 technician calls for a replacement switch and possibly something else, suggest maintenance costs $200 over 10 years. Another vote against extended warranties...

So we went looking, big box retail as we all do now, and comparisons of function and price.
For a constant price (anticipated budget $1k) the options were
1, replace same for same
2, replace with bigger but more basic of same (F&P Pride series)
3, replace with some other brand for budget price

So we considered functionality first (as all engineers do) and decided that additional capacity was not necessary and the current functionality was quite appropriate. Alternatives were considered and discarded as insignificantly different and not significantly better. After a quick price comparison between retailers we leveraged a better service against a lower price, as a result the store with the better customer service got the sale, albeit at the price of the competitor ( I am sure a profit was still obtained).

Initial perception of the new purchase is one of small improvements in the last 10 years, quieter for one although the old one was a high mileage model and was likely unnecessarily noisy before the final death. While I consider death, the last machine died a peaceful death, did not make a mess and while I would have enjoyed its company for a while longer, we feel quite comfortable that a capital cost of $100/year to wash clothes is reasonable and assuming reliability has also slightly improved then all will be well until the kids leave home (hooray!)
For perspective, our purchase was biased on the previous performance more than any brand loyalty. It is a pity that NZers cannot manufacture these machines economically, and raises larger questions about what NZ can profit from (some other thread).
So how does this all contribute the the FPA thread?
I guess that the global programme at F&P has not destroyed the washing machine, and if I accept that others can manufacture it for less cost, then for the similar price of 10 years ago I assume FPA must be due the rewards of lower cost manufacture and therefore an upward SP is possible. Certainly not investment grade advice, merely the perceptions of a NZ customer.

V.
disc: recent holding

[elZorro]

Hi Vtrader,

We have a similar ancient 15 year old machine from F&P still working well, had a new pump recently, minor repairs. I feel for F&P, as they've made their machines too reliable. A second-hand one of these is only worth about $200, and it would probably go another 5-10 years and look good doing it. And as you've found, 15 years later and you can buy a (better?) new one for the same NZ$1,000, effectively about $500 old dollars. And at that price, they have plenty of lean competitors.

Wages, steel, other overheads have gone up. There has been a huge need to save other manufacturing costs, and reduce labour per unit. That leads inevitably overseas.

F&P are going to need an edge or two from their design team. More gear like the dual dishdrawer, worldwide market leading ideas. However, if their F&P brand will be sought by affluent Chinese, they don't have to compete head-to-head with cheaper imports over here, in what must be a small market by comparison.

[GTM 3442]

Hi Vtrader,

We have a similar ancient 15 year old machine from F&P still working well, had a new pump recently, minor repairs. I feel for F&P, as they've made their machines too reliable.

Quite similar to my experience. The F&P appliances we bought in the 80's ran for 20+ years.

Of the F&P washer, drier, double dishdrawer, and fridge that we bought in 2007, only the fridge has not needed repair.

Sad.

[elZorro]

Quite similar to my experience. The F&P appliances we bought in the 80's ran for 20+ years.

Of the F&P washer, drier, double dishdrawer, and fridge that we bought in 2007, only the fridge has not needed repair.

Sad.

This sort of discussion is a useful part of FA on F&P. There are threads overseas (USA etc) covering disappointments with dishdrawers for example.

GTM: I used to repair F&P 400s for pocket money, the boxy units before the Smartdrive that we have had for 15 yrs now. The new machines are superior and cheaper to make. F&P were leaders in using the large brushless motor.

Appparently, when you make a dual dishdrawer(also a market leader), you're asking for trouble in the form of leaks. Twice as many seals to put in.
But these machines do fit a market segment that had never been looked after before (Jewish traditions for example). Sometimes you have to put a product out for 2-3 years to find out what all the real problems are. That's why the Consumer tests are not a true representation of what will happen after you buy a product.

But to their credit, F&P stand behind all their gear with spare parts and service info, and many are still making a living repairing units for reuse or resale. I'm sure market feedback is used to improve all products as the need arises. Other people are also selling container loads of slightly modified Smartdrive second-hand motors to be used as small-scale power generators behind wind turbines and pelton wheels.

Have a look: http://www.ecoinnovation.co.nz/

Overall, I'm very happy with our F&P appliances, as I understand how many things could go wrong with them, but don't. And they all have to be made to a price.

[winner69]

I see that FPA have been reported as being owed $7m plus by Clive Peeters who went broke

Hope they retained title to the goods .... and that gold old Gerry will take the stock when he takes over the stores and that FPA get their money (or stick) back

[fwu005]

CFO has just dipped his toes in the h20. An broker has a buy recommendation. Hmm ...
I'm doing up my kitchen and had a very close look appliances in the market.

Fisher parkel is definite the leader in refrigerators and dish washers, they have very wide selection ranges, high quality and very advance features. such as dish washers, only FPA has dish drawer series dish washers. Many of my friends and myself bought the dish drawer because of unique features.

I'm going to buy one of FPA stainless referigerator with cool water function. if you have a close look, you will notice FPA are much better than other brand in terms of features, quality.

[root]

I'm doing up my kitchen and had a very close look appliances in the market.

Fisher parkel is definite the leader in refrigerators and dish washers, they have very wide selection ranges, high quality and very advance features. such as dish washers, only FPA has dish drawer series dish washers. Many of my friends and myself bought the dish drawer because of unique features.

I'm going to buy one of FPA stainless referigerator with cool water function. if you have a close look, you will notice FPA are much better than other brand in terms of features, quality.

I'm on my 3rd dishdrawer in 10 years because I have been building houses. The first was a stage 3 and the last was a Stage 5 designer series. The reliability on the 4,5 and 6 series is far superior to the earlier models due to significant design changes with regards to lid sealing and pumping. The only problem with a double dishdrawer is you tend to not use the cupboards if you are lazy, dirty dishes in one and clean dishes straight out of the other one, can get you in trouble with the wife.

The designer series appliances in Irridium are very appealing, the Ice & Water model refrigerators have a water dispenser module that asthetically beats the opposition hands down (would like to see an "Ice through the door" model). Well priced and eye catching for a new build. Industrial Design is just as important as reliability in appliances, good looks and functionality are probably the 2 most important things.

FPA's products are Ok, they just need to demonstrate that the business restructuring and global strategy is sound by reporting a decent 6 month profit to September.

Disc: Regularly trade FPA. Watching and waiting.

[upside_umop]

Our family bought the first model dishdrawer back in the day. Always seemed to something to the seal due to knifes etc. Then it rusted out around 5 years after purchase. FPA noticed that we had quite a few problems and gave us a brand new one. Never had a problem again.

I'd say the new ones are even better.

[RRR]

Moving home later this year to the North and we will need a new washing machine. I will try my bit to help them!! Never bought a new a washing machine. The one I have is F&P (second hand) and is working very well. I will leave it here for the future tenant to use.

[Jaa]

Has anyone been appliance shopping lately to see how the NZ distribution changes are working out? I have a couple of stories....

Was in a 100% store the other day that was filled with F&P, Elba and Haier appliances all competing with themselves! Prices seemed competitive but normal and combined they dominated all other brands combined in terms of display space.

My sister bought a F&P branded entry level washing machine a few weeks ago for a steal for about $460 (only 1 per customer). This is the same price as what Harvey Norman sell the cheapest of the cheap Samsung washing machines for in a sale. According to the sales person F&P were trying to prove to retailers they were ready to compete on price and wanted to prove that no one could shift more stock than them. Probably true too considering their brand and goodwill.

Must find the time to do a decent survey of NZ appliance stores.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Only one F&P Marketed washing machine worth buying IMO and that is made by Whirlpool

[Doyle]

Has anyone been appliance shopping lately to see how the NZ distribution changes are working out? I have a couple of stories....

Was in a 100% store the other day that was filled with F&P, Elba and Haier appliances all competing with themselves! Prices seemed competitive but normal and combined they dominated all other brands combined in terms of display space.

My sister bought a F&P branded entry level washing machine a few weeks ago for a steal for about $460 (only 1 per customer). This is the same price as what Harvey Norman sell the cheapest of the cheap Samsung washing machines for in a sale. According to the sales person F&P were trying to prove to retailers they were ready to compete on price and wanted to prove that no one could shift more stock than them. Probably true too considering their brand and goodwill.

Must find the time to do a decent survey of NZ appliance stores.

Sorry to tell you but i think you will find that machine was just a fisher and pykal branded haier. Never made sense to me to put their name to that crap, if fisher and pykal continue to compete on price they will continue their downward spiral, they need to focus on the high end stuff and keeping their reputation in tact.

[Doyle]

Only one F&P Marketed washing machine worth buying IMO and that is made by Whirlpool

Good luck getting it serviced, as of may this year whirlpools service network is virtually non-existant.

[Jaa]

Only one F&P Marketed washing machine worth buying IMO and that is made by Whirlpool.

F&P stopped distributing Whirlpool at the end of March this year.


Sorry to tell you but i think you will find that machine was just a fisher and pykal branded haier. Never made sense to me to put their name to that crap, if fisher and pykal continue to compete on price they will continue their downward spiral, they need to focus on the high end stuff and keeping their reputation in tact.

Actually I believe it was made in Thailand. i.e. previously it would have been branded Elba.

I also take the opposite view, now F&P have low cost manufacturing options they are able to compete on price as well as service, quality and brand recognition. Hence why they were finally able to dismantle the exclusive distribution agreements they had with retailers. They have nothing to hide or fear anymore.

Can only make them leaner, hungrier and stronger long term.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Doyle who needs to get it serviced. It has allready outlasted any F&P washer I have owned in the last 25 years. Industrial machine bought in Australia for less than most F&P machines and less than 2/3 of the price F&P wanted for it here. As all they wanted to sell was their own cr*ppy washing machines. The Whirlpool is now nearly 7 years old and still going like new. The last good F&P washing machine had a wringer hanging off the side of it .

[fwu005]

a. Fridge: 1. Fisher & Paykel 403 Litre Designer Fridge Freezer Stainless Steel
2. Haier 148 Litre Chest Freezer White
3. Haier 160 Litre Vertical Freezer White
4. Mitsubishi 160 Litre Upright Freezer White

b. Dish washer: 1. Fisher & Paykel Double DishDrawer Stainless Steel
2 ~ 7. Fisher & Paykel, except Haier Dishwasher White in No. 5
8. Simpson Dishwasher White

c.Washing Machines: 1. Fisher & Paykel 5.5kg Pride Washing Machine
2. Samsung 5kg Top Load Washing Machine
3. Fisher & Paykel 6.5kg Excellence Washing Machine
4. Fisher & Paykel 6.5kg Pride Washing Machine
5. Simpson 5.5kg Top Load Washing Machine

d. Gas cooktop: 1. Parmco 600mm Stainless Steel 3 Gas & 1 Wok Hob
2. Elba by F&P Brushed Stainless Steel Gas Cooktop
3. Westinghouse Square Cooktop with 4 Burners

e. Electric cooktop: 1. Fisher & Paykel Ceramic Cooktop CE604CBX1 4 Hob stainless steel
2. Westinghouse Bevelled Trimless Ceramic Cooktop , Touch Controls Positioned
3. Elba by F&P Ceramic Cooktop White

f. Freestanding Oven: 1. Westinghouse Saturn Freestanding Oven
2. Westinghouse Neptune Freestanding Oven White
3. Westinghouse Mercury Freestanding Oven White
4. Elba by F&P Ceramic Freestanding Oven

[cycat64]

The wife selected all our appliances over the years. I just earned the money and honoured the cheque.
Just looking around:
F&P Frigidaire fridge/freezer bought about 1991
F&P Smartdrive Washer bought 1994
F&P Dryer bought 1994
F&P Double dish-drawer bought 2000
We have beaten the crap out of them since then but I am pretty sure we have never had a problem except when a sock went down the gurgler on the washer and we got flooded out.
Maybe they make rubbish now or we were lucky.

[Jay]

Belg -I Think Mr P has headed off for a well earned break - so no charts from him for a wee bit

[winner69]

All these good tthings being said about the products and the new distribution is all good stuff but the shareprice is a disaster

Back to turn of the century prices and if we don't count the time they put their hand out for shareholder money may sd well say at close to all time lows.

A long term chart (15 years) is quite intriguing .... I don't know whether this on has been adjusted for stock splits etc but it seems to be kosher ---- what a perfect pattern that is forming .... and based on this chart the shareprice won't go anywhere for years .... maybe down though if the pattern fully plays out

But what the heck who believes patterns on the chart when the fundamentals are so so strong

[percy]

All these good tthings being said about the products and the new distribution is all good stuff but the shareprice is a disaster

Back to turn of the century prices and if we don't count the time they put their hand out for shareholder money may sd well say at close to all time lows.

A long term chart (15 years) is quite intriguing .... I don't know whether this on has been adjusted for stock splits etc but it seems to be kosher ---- what a perfect pattern that is forming .... and based on this chart the shareprice won't go anywhere for years .... maybe down though if the pattern fully plays out

But what the heck who believes patterns on the chart when the fundamentals are so so strong

I would be careful with this share.The charts tell us it may be like L&P" world famous in NZ",but NZ is a very small market in the wide world of appliances.

[RRR]

Excellent chart W69. Long term holders nightmare and it doesn't help being in a cyclical industry. They took right decisions but too late and at a very inopportune time and that left them in the mess they are in now. John Key said FPA is a NZ icon. A lot is left to be desired from a NZ iconic company! Is geographical isolation playing a part to being too slow to react to reality or are we happy go lucky people against any sort of change. Management is good and honest but I reckon they were too slow to react. Time will tell. I will remain invested for the time being.

[upside_umop]

I'd hate to say it, but I think the total dividends on the 'buy in' price would have beaten the banks interest rate hands down over the 15 year period (think about those juicy 18 cent divi's they used to pay....mmmm all that over a 60 cent? buy in of the stock!). I'm not advocating buy and hold...but just some 'food for thought!'

I agree with RRR though. They were too slow to react to the world change, trying to do the 'good' thing by the employees and keep manufacturing here. Add on the GFC with some bank covenant issues and Bobs your uncle. Well, he wasn't and FPA was never a long term hold of mine.

[Jim]

Remember FPA's 20% partner Haier, and its expose to the huge Chinese market.This is the turning point. The share price is so weak maybe I think someone is shorting FPA lately.

[Jaa]

But what the heck who believes patterns on the chart when the fundamentals are so so strong

The chart kind of ignores that other Fisher & Paykel company, which wasn't a bad dividend that came from holding the stock!


I would be careful with this share.The charts tell us it may be like L&P" world famous in NZ",but NZ is a very small market in the wide world of appliances.

NZ is FPA's third largest market after Australia and the US so your L&P analogy couldn't be more wrong Percy.

What we have here is a classic turnaround stock in a classic turnaround industry. Upgrading/buying appliances like cars and overseas trips can be put off for a while but in the meantime the latent demand just accumulates ready to be unleashed during the recovery. So on the way up you get greater than normal sales.

The market has been burned a few times time by FPA already so only real results will be enough to convince it I suspect. We will find out on the 23rd of August how they are going again I suspect some will be surprised.

[RRR]

FPA is not yet a turnaround stock but has the potential to become one. Few cents worth of thought-they should concentrate on emerging markets and open more and more stores there rather than do the same in the developed world(their much advertised deals with US consumer stores). Developed market consumers are piled with debt and one cant sell anymore-you just get disappointment. Tap the markets with disposable income and who want to flaunt the wealth and that is Asia at present and for a long time to come. Whirlpool has now established well and flourishing there. Many european and asian car makers are growing exponentially in China/India and they are opening more and more show rooms. Same is the case with appliances. There is room for more players like FPA with established brand-it is better late than never.

[winner69]

The chart kind of ignores that other Fisher & Paykel company, which wasn't a bad dividend that came from holding the stock!


.

It was interesting that after the separation in late 2001 FPA performed far better than FPH - the top of the mountain on that chart.

I remember making heaps buying heaps of FPA and selling before having to pay for them ... the shareprice went up $2 or so in a 2 days in those irrational days.

It took a while for punters to catch on that post separation FPH was the better bet ... heck a high margin developer of medical equipment in a global market is always going to be better than a good old fashioned manufacturer of household appliances

How things have changed ... I think back in 2002 FPA made more than $100m before tax ... whats the figure now.

I have checked that long term chart and pretty sure it has been adjusted for the impact of separation and splits and rights issue.

Agree those who bought last century and have held have received good divies and prob not lost any capital ... but heck iif they sold out when the writing was on the wall they could have made heaps .... sadly those who bought over the last 5 years and held are deeply under water

A real story in those long term charts .... see how how day to day and week to week movements are just noise ... long term trends tejj the real story

[Jaa]

It was interesting that after the separation in late 2001 FPA performed far better than FPH - the top of the mountain on that chart.

I remember making heaps buying heaps of FPA and selling before having to pay for them ... the shareprice went up $2 or so in a 2 days in those irrational days.

It took a while for punters to catch on that post separation FPH was the better bet ... heck a high margin developer of medical equipment in a global market is always going to be better than a good old fashioned manufacturer of household appliances

How things have changed ... I think back in 2002 FPA made more than $100m before tax ... whats the figure now.

I have checked that long term chart and pretty sure it has been adjusted for the impact of separation and splits and rights issue.

Agree those who bought last century and have held have received good divies and prob not lost any capital ... but heck iif they sold out when the writing was on the wall they could have made heaps .... sadly those who bought over the last 5 years and held are deeply under water

A real story in those long term charts .... see how how day to day and week to week movements are just noise ... long term trends tejj the real story

Interesting that FPH has not done well over the last few years either despite increasing $US profits at ~20% a year. You just can't please Mr Market sometimes.

Couldn't agree more that the appliances industry in general does not suit a buy and hold strategy. It is a classic cyclical industry and suits a buy in recession and sell in boom strategy. I am picking we are at or near the bottom of this cycle and as FPA was savaged on the way down I suspect it will rocket its way back up as the market gradually forgets the bad times. ie an increase (doubling?) of net profit back to $80m/yr and a move back to a P/E of 12-15?

Though I wouldn't exclude the possibility it will do nothing for a while first.

[Jaa]

FPA is not yet a turnaround stock but has the potential to become one. Few cents worth of thought-they should concentrate on emerging markets and open more and more stores there rather than do the same in the developed world(their much advertised deals with US consumer stores). Developed market consumers are piled with debt and one cant sell anymore-you just get disappointment. Tap the markets with disposable income and who want to flaunt the wealth and that is Asia at present and for a long time to come. Whirlpool has now established well and flourishing there. Many european and asian car makers are growing exponentially in China/India and they are opening more and more show rooms. Same is the case with appliances. There is room for more players like FPA with established brand-it is better late than never.

While in general I agree they should be opening more stores across the developing world, they are doing this albiet cautiously. Was reading something unrelated the other day that purchases in the developing world are highly concentrated in a few large cities so you do not need as many stories as you would in a developed country. I imagine a lot of new appliances sales in China are done direct to property developers in large order sizes for example. Or to take FPA's latest market Vietnam, a showroom in Hanoi, HCMC and Da Nang would give you pretty good coverge.

I do disagree with you though that the deals with Lowes and Sears in the US should not also be a focus for the company. Essentially this is payback for FPA moving more of its manufacturing capability to North America and for aligning its cost base with its competitors. And what a payback..... 500 Sear's mall stores and 700 Lowe's outlet stores! What other market in the world could you could conjure up another 1,200 high volume sales outlets? A good reminder that while US retail remains relatively weak it is still the big daddy of world markets.

[Tanger]

The AGM on the 23rd will hopefully provide some signals of where they are at for the first 4 months of FY11 and hopefully some full year guidance. The 2H FY10 NPAT was $18.8m, so will be watching closely to see if this momentum has continued and the benefits of the global manufacturing strategy are starting to pay dividends. Probably still too early to re initiate the dividends, but some type of timeframe for that, and also the Chinese expansion opportunity would be great to see. The company still seems to have a market cap less than the value of its net tangible assets, so I'd agree that the share price must be pretty near the bottom.

[root]

While in general I agree they should be opening more stores across the developing world, they are doing this albiet cautiously. Was reading something unrelated the other day that purchases in the developing world are highly concentrated in a few large cities so you do not need as many stories as you would in a developed country. I imagine a lot of new appliances sales in China are done direct to property developers in large order sizes for example. Or to take FPA's latest market Vietnam, a showroom in Hanoi, HCMC and Da Nang would give you pretty good coverge.

I do disagree with you though that the deals with Lowes and Sears in the US should not also be a focus for the company. Essentially this is payback for FPA moving more of its manufacturing capability to North America and for aligning its cost base with its competitors. And what a payback..... 500 Sear's mall stores and 700 Lowe's outlet stores! What other market in the world could you could conjure up another 1,200 high volume sales outlets? A good reminder that while US retail remains relatively weak it is still the big daddy of world markets.

Most of the manufacturing capability on that side of the world is in Reynosa (Mexico), I don't think they are doing to much out of Ohio now. You are right in saying that the US is the biggest market for F&P and you can watch the SP rise and fall directly off the fluctuating economic data that flows out through the media. They are trying to target the top 1% of the consumers in places like China and Viet Nam with their high end products. No point trying to compete by shipping low end products into these countries.

[winner69]

The AGM on the 23rd will hopefully provide some signals of where they are at for the first 4 months of FY11 and hopefully some full year guidance. The 2H FY10 NPAT was $18.8m, so will be watching closely to see if this momentum has continued and the benefits of the global manufacturing strategy are starting to pay dividends. Probably still too early to re initiate the dividends, but some type of timeframe for that, and also the Chinese expansion opportunity would be great to see. The company still seems to have a market cap less than the value of its net tangible assets, so I'd agree that the share price must be pretty near the bottom.

So Appliances bottom end of $45m$-52m EBIT and Finance upper end of $25m-$34m EBIT sort of suggests EBIT of $75m which should produce NPAT of about $40m .... before any more crappy abnormals come out

So current shareprice on a PE of just under 10

The comments were pretty dismal in spite of the good news


The Board's present view is that Appliances' full year forecast earnings
before interest and tax will be at the lower end of the broker consensus
range of $45 million to $52 million, however the Finance business will be at the top end of the broker consensus range of $25 million to $34 million.

The Board is increasingly concerned about the risk of further deterioration in economic conditions across our key appliances markets. If these concerns are realised, achieving the full year forecast will be challenging.

The Board will have a much clearer view on this matter at the time of the half year announcement in November 2010.

Looks like a wait and see game here

[Balance]

So Appliances bottom end of $45m$-52m EBIT and Finance upper end of $25m-$34m EBIT sort of suggests EBIT of $75m which should produce NPAT of about $40m .... before any more crappy abnormals come out

So current shareprice on a PE of just under 10

The comments were pretty dismal in spite of the good news



Looks like a wait and see game here

Finally learning to under promise.

Old dogs out, new tricks with new ponies in.

[Tanger]

While they have said that they wont be re-instating dividends at the half year, they have left it open for the end of year. Subject of course to things being in good shape. I imagine as soon as the dividends are re-instated, there will be a positive impact on the share price.

[Jaa]

One bit of good news I picked up on via a quick skim was that the Cleveland, Australia site is finally "under offer". Only taken them a year or so!

Also they are splitting the East Tamaki lot 2 site in four which should make it easier to sell.

[percy]

In hindsight would it not have been better to try and sell off the appliance side and concentrate on the growing finnance business?

[Lizard]

In hindsight would it not have been better to try and sell off the appliance side and concentrate on the growing finnance business?

Yeah, they could have made it big in Queenstown property... or something.. :p