FPA Chart [Archive] - Page 3 - Sharetrader Forum

RRR

23-08-2010, 08:23 PM

I thought the management gave a very clear and honest picture. Take home message as I understood from the presentation is trading condition continues to be challenging, margins increasing, no more write downs (that statement was repeated at least 2 times), asset sales progressing well, dividends a possibility, partnership with haier benefiting etc. And they are recruiting Engineers. It has all the characteristics of a turnaround stock but only time will tell. I am happy to hold.

Lizard

23-08-2010, 08:58 PM

The foundation has been put in place, but is it time yet?

Not much in the result to get anyone excited yet. By my numbers, an "optimistic" scenario for FPA next year would be about $36m NPAT - still only a forward P/E of about 11 at current prices. Yet their outlook statement was so tempered, that even the optimistic scenario seems daunting. EV/EBIT is currently around 10 (high!) although looks as though it could fall to a more reasonable 8 on an annualised second half. (I've "normalised" everything).

Maybe bit of a wait and see until August agm guidance (or at least until about two weeks before, given the way FPA tends to move in advance). Who knows, perhaps the GST increase in NZ will drive a mini-boom in sales of larger items? Though, saving 2.5% by buying earlier is probably not that attractive to consumers now that they are used to massive retailer discounts!

This has the potential to be a good recovery trade at some stage, but I can't get excited about it at current price and outlook. I will just keep on close watch at this stage.

I agree with Winner's calcs for around $40m NPAT now, so a bit ahead of my previous figures (above). Overall, much the same comments as others.

Probable turnaround. No race to buy yet. Hold up to 70cps/accumulate on dips is my thinking.

dartMonkey

06-09-2010, 09:39 PM

We got the first letter right Belg.
Just should've ended in a bu ...

zs_cecil

13-09-2010, 11:43 AM

Hope it can break 54c eventually... :mad ;:

root

15-09-2010, 12:18 PM

Nice little spike in SP turns out to be a revolutionary new "Britten" compressor. I hear field production units are already underway, should be some royalties heading FPAs way in the future. Finally some genuinely good news.

Roadrunner

16-09-2010, 05:56 PM

Doyle

16-09-2010, 11:19 PM

Yep, I`m with you on that one Belgarion.I bought FPA as a bargain basement stock hoping for a bit of upside but this was unexpected great news!First question here as a newbie......presuming this compressor is fully patented and trials well then this should impact hugely on the company`s bottom line in the long term?By the way I currently hold DIL as well as these.

Don't get too excited, fisher and pykal revolutionised chest freezers 20 years ago with the rotary compressor. Turned out to be one of the least reliable compressors ever made, and since reverted back to traditional compressors. Good news and well done to every who picked up shares in the low 50's. But don't count on this compressor as a sure fire money maker long term.

Lizard

17-09-2010, 07:30 AM

root

17-09-2010, 11:54 AM

Seems to be some kind of linear motor/compressor, similar to what LG has been developing (http://www.ameinfo.com/196888.html)? Both Embraco and F&P seem to have patents in this area, so perhaps the technology they are using will combine patents from both sides.

You're right Liz, the prime mover is a linear electric actuator as opposed to a rotary motor. It has a smaller footprint than coneventional compressors, is more efficient, does not require refrigerant oil for lubrication, and the stroke is inherently governed by the system load. I believe FPA had the original concept and Embraco were brought on board to take it through to production, subsequently both companies hold patents against various parts of the process.

I would expect Embraco to supply it and FPA to use it and collect royalties of some sort if it is used in other manufacturers products.

mikew

17-09-2010, 12:11 PM

How many people care about the energy saving when they plan to buy new appliance. I suspect that this new compressor will boost much selling. The sp has been overheated by this announcement.

dartMonkey

17-09-2010, 12:29 PM

How many people care about the energy saving when they plan to buy new appliance.
Most people?

Jay

17-09-2010, 12:58 PM

I would agree as well most these days - if price is about the same then certainly

BTW, I would like to thank (publicly) dart monkey for your help (and giving me the confidence to have a go) with my website alterations - can't locate the original thread!!

17-09-2010, 01:01 PM

How many people care about the energy saving when they plan to buy new appliance. I suspect that this new compressor will boost much selling. The sp has been overheated by this announcement.Those that buy solar panels, or heat pumps or any other energy efficient product.

The question is what is the $ saving per year. If they said "at current power prices it will save you $100 per year" how much more would you pay for the fridge?

I assume the share price has gone up from the ability to license the technology and derive royalty income. The question therefore is will all other manufacturers pay for the technology or will they just 'invent' their own version.

tesla

17-09-2010, 02:28 PM

Refrigerator manufacturers are having to meet more and more stringent MEPS energy standards. They are looking at any and all ways of doing that, including using iso-butane refrigerants.

A 30% saving on the compressor alone is a big deal.

Lizard

17-09-2010, 06:54 PM

You're right Liz, the prime mover is a linear electric actuator as opposed to a rotary motor. It has a smaller footprint than coneventional compressors, is more efficient, does not require refrigerant oil for lubrication, and the stroke is inherently governed by the system load. I believe FPA had the original concept and Embraco were brought on board to take it through to production, subsequently both companies hold patents against various parts of the process.

I would expect Embraco to supply it and FPA to use it and collect royalties of some sort if it is used in other manufacturers products.

Thanks root... sorry, not much time to research at the moment (have to fill in for partner with broken ankle at office - thank goodness surgeon does not get wife to do same!). From quick search, Embraco had patent on piston stroke. The patents go back a few years, so I am wondering what triggered the ann. Maybe an agreement or maybe a new patent application that I haven't found yet? Do you have key patent no's?

root

18-09-2010, 08:03 AM

Thanks root... sorry, not much time to research at the moment (have to fill in for partner with broken ankle at office - thank goodness surgeon does not get wife to do same!). From quick search, Embraco had patent on piston stroke. The patents go back a few years, so I am wondering what triggered the ann. Maybe an agreement or maybe a new patent application that I haven't found yet? Do you have key patent no's?

Try these, they can get a bit in depth depending on your chosen field. The key points are the control of the linear motor with regards to refrigerant vapour, and the controller itself, you can't use an expensive controller and still compete in the consumer appliance market. Embraco hold patents in the area of "oil free" operation, this isn't new but the method of achieving it may be. I don't believe it has been used in mainstream fridge/freezer appliances before. The latest F&P patent is this year.

http://www.patentgenius.com/patent/7247007.html

http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7663275/description.html

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/6809434.html

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7618243.html

Lizard

18-09-2010, 10:50 AM

Thanks root. Yes, seems there are a lot of patents in this technology - somewhere I read that Embraco says 44 patents and applications are covering it! Bit of a headache tying up licensing deals and getting freedom to operate I presume. Anyway, good to see the technology get closer to market.

Maybe a bit premature for the share price to start counting returns from it, but still good to see FPA in a positive spotlight.

percy

23-09-2010, 10:12 AM

article by Chalkie should be of interest.stuff,business,chalkie.

Tanger

01-10-2010, 11:29 AM

winner69

01-10-2010, 11:51 AM

If you believe all of the broker valuations, then this stock is undervalued by about 25% at the moment. I guess people are in a wait and see mode. Still a way to go yet before the recovery takes hold, but the company's balance sheet is a lot stronger, they are back into their innovation, supplier agreements have been renegotiated and the global manufacturing restructure has been completed. When the sp goes, it will go quickly.

but then again broker valuations are almost always 20-25% more than the shareprice .... just the normal discount the market (ie real people with real money) discount analysts views

Just like my house is always worth 25% more than what QV puts on it

Tanger

01-10-2010, 11:59 AM

I guess that's a fair point Winner. Although I did note the same brokers were saying Rakon was overvalued by about 25%. And I guess it is a 12 month price and they'll justify their valuation on the basis that sometime over the next 12 months the company will hit it (even if it doesn't stay there)

Tanger

04-10-2010, 08:55 AM

The Australia land sale is now unconditional. A$21.5m to be appied to further reduce debt. Just a small piece of Australian land and the balance of the East Tamaki sites to go.

04-10-2010, 10:50 AM

Methinks FPA could be lining up a very pleasant supprise for christmas ...Someone is buying their wife a new oven for Xmas??

Lizard

04-10-2010, 07:25 PM

Someone is buying their wife a new oven for Xmas??

I bought my own oven today. :p

(Elba - finally they do 80 litre freestanding again - I can get exactly the same as my 1983 Atlas. The advantage is that the kids can now read the temperature on the dial and I don't need one of those dangerous bungees to hold the door shut. LOL)

Lizard

04-10-2010, 07:28 PM

More seriously, I was scrolling through the Stats dept info and noticed that consumer durables were well up in August - over 6% - which includes appliances in the calc. Either a big burst of imports or consumers buying pre-GST?

The oven I wanted was out of stock too. Nothing fancy. Caught my interest.

Lizard

08-10-2010, 01:43 PM

Hi Belg,

I've been over it a few times and I can't see anything particularly spectacular in the numbers. Seems like they are currently looking at about $41m NPAT, so on PE of 11, about 61cps value? Oddly, given its contribution, there is little discussion of the factors affecting the finance business. Likewise in recent broker reports. It seems to have been performing quite strongly of late, but I am wondering how much they will be affected by expiry of the government guarantee. Any thoughts?

peat

08-10-2010, 02:48 PM

I am wondering how much they will be affected by expiry of the government guarantee. Any thoughts?
I only skimmed but I thought it said they have obtained a good enough rating to continue operating under the extended GG.

Lizard

08-10-2010, 03:57 PM

I only skimmed but I thought it said they have obtained a good enough rating to continue operating under the extended GG.

Yes, they have the extended guarantee. The difficulty is, what happens when that expires? The "debenture investors" I know are still invested in govt guaranteed, but not many of them have bitten the bullet and jumped to non-guaranteed yet. (In fact most will have a wall of maturing investments in the May-October 2011 period, which could be another story). At this point in time, I'd be sceptical that they'll be willing to adopt non-guaranteed debentures again, but reality may depend on how low yields are elsewhere, in which case, perhaps FPA will get enough reinvestment not to have to reduce the scale of the finance business. I'm no expert in finance coys and haven't really looked at FPA book very closely to understand how it is funded and funding maturity/risk. Any thoughts appreciated, but I would want to look more closely before I'd buy any more FPA.

peat

08-10-2010, 04:59 PM

Ah yeh I wondered if you were looking further out....
Lizard I did an analysis of FPF debentures in the NZDX forum if you're interested.

Lizard

09-10-2010, 08:09 PM

Okay, thought I'd better have a go at answering my own question. Some relevant facts:

At the time of initial govt guarantee in Nov 2008, the debenture funds were $85.1m. These then rose to $202.6m by 31 Mar 2009.
The majority of this funding was due to mature on or before Oct 10 (end of first guarantee period)
At Sep 2009, the coy had $335m of bank funding available, with $145m being drawn.
At Mar 2010, debenture funding had fallen to $156.9m and drawn bank facility increased to $176.6m
Currently the bank funding is in four tranches, with the earliest maturing in Sep 2011 ($105m).
The coy has previously extended the bank funding timing and probably has a good chance of being able to continue to do so.

Overall, it appears likely that most of the debenture book has been linked to the govt guarantee period (at least in the past). However, the company has put in place bank facilities sufficient to cover the majority of their loan book should they be needed.

There is a risk of rising funding costs, but, for now, those are probably more than covered. In fact, as the spread between lending an borrowing rates are generally high at the moment, there is probably good reason to see the finance business doing well for the immediate future.

The biggest risk is that the banks could suddenly decide not to roll the next tranche, requiring a significant reduction in the loan book. However, the timing probably means they will not really need the last tranche until Nov/Dec 2011, so they have a bit of warning to reduce the loan book if needed.

The maturity of loan assets and liabilities are reassuringly well-matched. The advantage of a consumer finance operation being it's generally short-term nature.

Overall, have mostly allayed my concerns. :)

macduffy

11-10-2010, 08:06 AM

Nice work, Liz!

I heard this morning that F and P Finance have been announced as one of a handful of companies to be approved for the extended guarantee scheme.

Phaedrus

21-10-2010, 08:06 PM

FPA is still in a "long-term" (15 month) downtrend. The magenta line is a "zig-zag" plot which filters out market noise and makes underlying trends more readily apparent. You can see that FPA is making lower lows and lower highs - that's a downtrend.

The On Balance Volume indicator gives us some insight into underlying market dynamics. While the plot itself jumps around quite a bit, the overall trend is unmistakable. Down. FPA is still being distributed as bigger holders sell out to smaller holders.

We can only assume that all buyers and sellers are willing, Belg. It is the FPA shareprice that plots their relative strength. I noticed that nearly all sales today went through at the Bid - there is only one way the shareprice will go if that continues.

There is support at 59 cents and at 57 cents. It will be interesting to see if these levels hold.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FPA1021.gif

Lizard

26-10-2010, 02:09 PM

Orbis continues to increase their stake.

Orbis are risk-takers. They win some, they lose some (e.g. NBS:ASX).

root

25-11-2010, 04:40 PM

SP not looking too solid, any picks for the NPAT? Have heard rumours of reduced production.

Lizard

26-11-2010, 08:56 AM

A quick look at the result and think it is going to be significantly disappointing to analysts. First glance says there will be more down to come...

root

26-11-2010, 09:30 AM

Looks like NPAT of about $11.3 million.

Lizard

26-11-2010, 09:33 AM

Winner, do you think they achieve the total interest cover covenant (i.e. EBITDA/interest >3 times)? I'm thinking not, since i'm presuming this only applies to appliances EBITDA? Is that correct?

Though having further reduced debt by about $25m on sale of Cleveland site, and taking into account cash on hand, bank could probably afford to be relaxed if this were the case.

Note that they capitalised a bit more in intangibles (R&D?) this year too.

winner69

26-11-2010, 10:19 AM

First impressions -

- A profit downgrade
- Just as well they didn't hock off the Finance arm a few years ago ... result would be a disaster otherwise
- Still not much money to be made in making appliances is there ...... just look at the margins

Might have a closer look later on

root

26-11-2010, 10:24 AM

SP sold down to 52. Market not happy.

winner69

26-11-2010, 10:37 AM

SP sold down to 52. Market not happy.

Well it was a pretty big profit downgrade .... all because of (hyped?) expectations from appliances not being met

Question ... FPA changing as the world changes .... trying to .... but in reality what has fundamentally changed insofar as financial performance?

Scumich

26-11-2010, 11:01 AM

Question ... FPA changing as the world changes .... trying to .... but in reality what has fundamentally changed insofar as financial performance?

Finance arm is now forecast to earn the same or more than the appliances arm (FY11)...maybe they should change their name to Fisher and Paykel Finance?

Balance sheet is a lot stronger than a year ago, despite the profit downgrade hopefully there are no immediate concerns re banking covenants?

Margins are on the improve - so the restructuring strategy seems to be working.

Forex cover - not sure what is going on here but hopefully they are taking a leaf out of FPH's book and actively covering their exposure.

The reality is, most people buy new whiteware when they buy or renovate their house. The housing market in NZ is still in the doldrums, it is worse in the US and Europe, and they haven't got going in China yet. Until these housing markets pick up, can we really expect the appliances arm to outperform?

zs_cecil

26-11-2010, 11:57 AM

Finance arm is now forecast to earn the same or more than the appliances arm (FY11)...maybe they should change their name to Fisher and Paykel Finance?...

Interesting day... People seems to be disappointing in the early trade and slowly picking up. Does it mean the result is not really that disappointed?

root

26-11-2010, 11:59 AM

Well it was a pretty big profit downgrade .... all because of (hyped?) expectations from appliances not being met

Question ... FPA changing as the world changes .... trying to .... but in reality what has fundamentally changed insofar as financial performance?

I would have expected some of the perceived benefits of the "Global Strategy" to be showing up in the bottom line by now, something doesn't quite add up for me. Not sure whether it's overestimating any gains offered by reduced labour costs or underestimating the cost of materials being sourced from new overseas vendors, or fine tuning the logistics of warehousing and shipping.

winner69

27-11-2010, 10:27 AM

....to the mild profit downgrade.....

C'mon Belg - even you know that without the finance arm (they don't really want) this result was a disaster. The hype around FPA is all about appliances isn't ... global growth and all that stuff ... so lets concentrate on Appliances

MILD downgrade eh ....... 2 months ago they said $45m-$52m EBIT and now the sad story $28m -$35m ... thats some downgrade .... hardly indicates they ahve a real feel for whats going on

What concerns me is the jiggery pokery going on their accounts and presentations ... did you see in the presentation that Apppliance normalised adjusted EBIT this year was $12,000 (in thousands exactly) .... not the $6.7m reported ......put that in to tell a good story to soembody did they?

For all the cpaital tied up razor thin margins and low returns this really is a value destroying business .... OK it is doing ;good; things like innovating and going to cheap countries but that is only about survival .... dead if they don't do it but never to create any great value

Obviously a great little finance company they have ..... cherish it mate because that is what is keeping the shareprice up ... but Belg I dn't think you invested in FPA because it was a finance company

Phaedrus

27-11-2010, 10:37 AM

I think the long-term uptrend is still well intact.Wishful thinking, Belg. FPA remains in a long-term downtrend - don't forget that this previous "market darling" was once $4.88 - then the long slide began.

FPA is also in a medium-term downtrend. The chart below covers the last 18 months and the ongoing series of lower highs and lower lows is painfully obvious. (That's a down trend) The red "Zig-zag" indicator filters out minor fluctuations, showing the underlying trend more clearly - should anyone find it hard to discern.

Since the recent Class B Bearish divergence (marked in magenta) FPA has been in a short-term downtrend. Yesterday it broke below a previous support level as marked by a red arrow.

The OBV remains in an 18 month downtrend with an unbroken trendline in place.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FPA1127.gif

Scumich

27-11-2010, 11:29 AM

C'mon Belg - even you know that without the finance arm (they don't really want) this result was a disaster. The hype around FPA is all about appliances isn't ... global growth and all that stuff ... so lets concentrate on Appliances

Europe 1H sales down 29% and North America 1H sales down 12%. Obviously not good, but these markets are in a serious housing downturn.

China zero sales. This is very worrying. In direct contrast to US/EU, HK and China are currently in the midst of a property bubble. This is the type of environment where FPA should be cashing in, big time.

Haier appliances have been available in NZ for over a year - why are F&P products taking so long to enter the Chinese market? Especially when they are supposedly being piggy backed into the market by Haier, China's largest appliance maker. Don't they have Haier's established sales and distribution channels at their disposal? Something is not right here.

root

27-11-2010, 02:45 PM

Europe 1H sales down 29% and North America 1H sales down 12%. Obviously not good, but these markets are in a serious housing downturn.

China zero sales. This is very worrying. In direct contrast to US/EU, HK and China are currently in the midst of a property bubble. This is the type of environment where FPA should be cashing in, big time.

Haier appliances have been available in NZ for over a year - why are F&P products taking so long to enter the Chinese market? Especially when they are supposedly being piggy backed into the market by Haier, China's largest appliance maker. Don't they have Haier's established sales and distribution channels at their disposal? Something is not right here.

Agreed Scumich. I have nothing to offer as to what the hurdles are getting into China (a huge potential market), I know they are there with a showroom and like you say should be able to quickly establish distribution with the Haier partnership. With the current global unease I expect more of the same 2H. Can't help but feel they have too much production capacity for todays market.

Some money to be made in this downtrend but not easily.

Disc: Out at 61, will possibly try and re-enter in the 40s.

Lizard

27-11-2010, 02:56 PM

I have just had time for a closer look. Seems my comment re interest cover covenant must be wrong, as, from presentation, it seems they must use the EBITDA from entire business (finance+appliances).

My valuation did not change significantly with this result - currently sits at 60cps. At some point I think it will be a turnaround, but there are not signs that it is yet. Appliances is a huge disappointment after all the effort and expense. I would not expect any sudden recovery from this point - cashflow has been boosted out of falls in receivables, but inventory has risen - which could mean further contraction in sales is still occurring.

Finance business also still concerns me, despite the good result and my earlier post. There is still something of a balance in funding to find as they move out of the Govt Guarantee period. I note finance liabilities have increased yet finance assets fallen - does not seem like a good sign in terms of interest margins?

Watch and wait.

percy

27-11-2010, 05:18 PM

phaedrus. thank you for a great chart and your comments.
lizard.I think F&P finance is well regarded by the market and should have a loyal band of depositers,who will roll over their deposits.
I do see a slow down for their finance as more retail customers avoid hire purchase,either not buying new lounge suites from The Farmers or Smiths City,or paying cash.
As for selling whiteware,I find it hard to imagine a harder business to be in.If anyone thinks Haer will help in China,I doubt it.One way only for them. Takers,not givers.
I have just updated our fridge.Although a SCY shareholder,best deal was at Bond and Bond,using a mates rate card,discounted price,and flybuy vouchers.The actual starting price was cheaper than the last fridge I brought 13 years ago ,when at the time Noel Leemings were selling out of F&P products.I suspect a lot of retailers are selling whiteware at cost at present, and hoping to sell enough to receive a good or higher end of year rebate from manufactures.

winner69

28-11-2010, 09:20 AM

Whats a finance company with a loan book of $600m odd, book value of $250m and EBIT of $35m worth?

Answer that and you the get a feel for how much the market thinks of the prospects of its appliances business

Maybe it is all pretty pictures and great stories with little real substance .... the reality being that division is a capital intensive one fighting in globally competitive markets and struggling to make a mark

root

28-11-2010, 11:28 AM

F&Ps EBIT margin of 1.4% doesn't compare well with Whirlpools 5.2% and Electrolux 6.1% for similar periods. Is that just because F&P are doing more than just making appliances?

Lizard

17-12-2010, 10:01 AM

Ralph having trouble turning this one around, Belg. Another forecast downgrade for you today...

winner69

17-12-2010, 12:42 PM

MILD downgrade eh ....... 2 months ago they said $45m-$52m EBIT and now the sad story $28m -$35m ... thats some downgrade .... hardly indicates they ahve a real feel for whats going on

Another MILD downgrade .... a month or so on and all of a sudden the $28m-$35m becomes $18m-$25m

Hope there isn't another one post Xmas ..... if so maybe admission losing money

Face up to it .... Appliances division is dog .... has been a dog for years and now confiemed as a dog once and fall

Global manufacturing strategy not to make more money ...... just to stay alive methinks

And remember $18m is EBIT .... take off the I and the T and not much left eh

Under 40c in Australia ..... maybe in NZ one day

Xerof

17-12-2010, 12:47 PM

Just as well they have the Finance business - woof woof

winner69

17-12-2010, 01:12 PM

"Whilst there is no certainty the earnings trend in November will continue,
should this occur, Appliances' full year earnings before interest and
taxation will be between $15 million and $25 million."

So what is being said is that there is a possibility that Nov trend (when they reported HY results BTW) will continue for the next 12 months? Are we being lined up to be surprised by how they "exceeded the guidance" in 6 months and 12 months time? The rest of the world is bubbling along and yet "the markets in which FPA operates" are going backwards? Really?

The wording of the announcement is very, very un-specific ... almost to the point of being misleading! ... If they do exceed guidance they'll be some very pissed off sellers. ... But if the board is being overly optimistic (again) then today's sellers will be okay about it I guess.

They prob have no idea what is going on Belg

Appliances only just surviving now ... and even when the world gets a bit better they won't make heaps of money

Pity is appliances bleeding so much even the finance performance will be tainted .... isn't it sort of subsiding appliances?

h2so4

17-12-2010, 08:20 PM

Hope you're wrong there W69 ... It the only reason I'm there ... (and that finance coy of course ;) ).

Well we better all start lining up for our new fridge or washing machine, as I can see there will be a huge demand when things pick up. It may not be a FPA though.:ohmy:

RRR

17-12-2010, 08:45 PM

Why the 2nd downgrade in a matter of weeks? December sales yet to come. They should stop doing this for goodness sake-it only helps the traders!! I am not going to average down and will wait for an opportune time to buy more. They should just concentrate on their business and stop trying to be too honest and forthcoming!! They achieved nothing and will allow speculators to manipulate the share price.

macduffy

17-12-2010, 09:00 PM

The "problem" is that the market expects some profit guidance from companies and gets tetchy when it's not forthcoming. Then once it's made, a company is obliged to inform the market if trading conditions change and the profit forecast changes. All in the interests of an informed market and probably preferable to the alternative.

percy

17-12-2010, 09:19 PM

Retail is very hard place to be at present.With people worrying about their jobs,their business's.their debt, the last thing they are going to do is buy new whitewear.
Most sales will be for fridges or washing machines that have broken down.This will affect FPA in two ways.One they will sell fewer big ticket items.Two,as no sale, no need for finance. With Govt debt blow out,things will only get thougher.There's a large number of small business's in Chtristchurch and Kaiapoi that will go broke in the next few months.People who thought they were covered for loss of profits,etc will /and are finding they are not covered.The major listed retailers are finding times tough.So I can not see sales of whitewear picking up.The overseas markets FPA sell into appear to be just as bad.I forget the figure but it was either 20 or 25% unemployment in USA.Those jobs have gone to China.and Haier will not sell FPA fridges in China.
I should add I was sent a mailer where I could buy any whiteware product [and any product]from a major retailer at cost,plus 5% plus GST.So retailer is relying on end of year rebate,or just trying to buy themselves a month's credit.

daniel

19-12-2010, 10:44 AM

maybe this will shed some light?
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=187772

Retailers pleased with christmas trading

18/12/2010 13:48:01

A busy day for retailers with Christmas just a week away, and a welcome reprieve from a harder trading environment
With Christmas just days away it's a busy time for retailers across New Zealand.
Westfield Shopping Centre spokeswoman, Deb McGhie, says malls around the country are really busy.
She says it even compares favourably to previous years, despite talk of recession, "from all accounts it seems to be as busy as we'd expect at this time of the year", she told Newstalk ZB.
Ashley Church from the Newmarket Business Association says feedback from retailers has been positive and people are starting to shop again following on from the recession.
He says retailers are taking a proactive approach in getting people through shop doors and it's fantastic given last year was so slow.

Retail is very hard place to be at present.With people worrying about their jobs,their business's.their debt, the last thing they are going to do is buy new whitewear.
Most sales will be for fridges or washing machines that have broken down.This will affect FPA in two ways.One they will sell fewer big ticket items.Two,as no sale, no need for finance. With Govt debt blow out,things will only get thougher.There's a large number of small business's in Chtristchurch and Kaiapoi that will go broke in the next few months.People who thought they were covered for loss of profits,etc will /and are finding they are not covered.The major listed retailers are finding times tough.So I can not see sales of whitewear picking up.The overseas markets FPA sell into appear to be just as bad.I forget the figure but it was either 20 or 25% unemployment in USA.Those jobs have gone to China.and Haier will not sell FPA fridges in China.
I should add I was sent a mailer where I could buy any whiteware product [and any product]from a major retailer at cost,plus 5% plus GST.So retailer is relying on end of year rebate,or just trying to buy themselves a month's credit.

percy

19-12-2010, 11:41 AM

daniel.
Believe who you want.Any retailer achieving turnover will be doing it at the expense of margin.Retailers rely on christmas trading profit.Without it there will be a lot of retailers going out of business.I stand by my post.The truth will not be long in coming.I dearly wish to be proved wrong.PPG,PPl,BRG,HLG,SCY,WHS,KRK ,HBY,MHI, KMD,will be lucky to surprise on the upside.The AUssie's like JBH,HVN,reject shop,etc will also face very strong head winds.

Tanger

21-12-2010, 09:29 AM

CEO and VP of Investor Relations have both been buying this week post the profit downgrade. Obviously putting their money where their mouths are. Does that signal the last of the profit downgrades? (if you could call it that). Interestingly, the guideance was on the basis that the November sales figures continue for the rest of the year (which my guess is were very low). Fingers crossed for some potential upside come the end of the year. It would be nice for them to beat guideance (or at least come in at the higher end), even if it has been reduced a couple of times. FPA really needs to get investor confidence back in terms of its guideance and forecasting.

Lizard

21-12-2010, 09:42 AM

One thing I particularly don't like in relation to the downgrade is that, at the bottom end of guidance, it seems appliances will need a decent div (at least $8m) from the finance division to stay within EBITDA covenants. While finance can (and would) pay a div of that size, it seems to me that finance could do with preserving the cash for their own balance sheet in light of moving out of govt guarantee period within next 12 months and probable reduction in debenture funding.

Probably nit-picking. It doesn't appear that brokers see it as a problem (and certainly a less risky balance sheet than in the past).

Jaa

21-12-2010, 12:24 PM

Is it just me or is the obvious reason for the poor Nov performance in NZ, the lagged effect of the increase in GST?

FPA tried to pre-empt this by slashing prices which wasn't a great strategy as most in the market for whiteware would have bought pre-GST increase.

Or are we looking at what FPA's NZ performance will be like without their exclusive distribution arrangements?

winner69

21-12-2010, 12:51 PM

Or are we looking at what FPA's NZ performance will be like without their exclusive distribution arrangements?

I think that is the reason jaa .... have to earn their keep now and try really hard to hold share

Lizard

22-12-2010, 09:28 AM

Nah. Orbis just have the same kind of reverse pyramid strategy that you always liked, Belg. They did well on bottom-picking during the GFC, but doesn't make them infallible. And I very much doubt that they are into any kind of conspiracy deal-play with Haier.

If Haier were to do a partial takeover offer, no doubt Orbis would just be another typical shareholder looking for a decent gain on their investment. Any takeover could use the slow creep method, but it takes years and variable result in terms of control. Very much doubt it is worth the "discount" at which shares are acquired to a full takeover. Ask RBC whether their TEN investment has paid off yet...

POSSUM THE CAT

22-12-2010, 02:44 PM

Belgarion you have an over inflated view of what F&P Appliances is worth Whirlpool would be queuing up to buy it. 5cents per share would probably be to much to pay for this Dog the only assets worth having is the dish drawer patents & the finance campany.
y

POSSUM THE CAT

22-12-2010, 07:29 PM

Belgarion the company is F&P appliances and I value the whole company at 5cents per share so it has a long way to fall. I did not separate any part of it out. Correct me if I am wrong F&P FINANCE IS part of FPA not FPH. I am saying that bar for possibly Two patents nobody in their right mind would want to make a take over offer for FPA at any way near the present share price.

percy

23-12-2010, 10:01 AM

belgarion

This morning's half year result from Smiths City is of interest.They note difficult trading,however Smiths finance company continued to trade well and contributed positively to the half year result.As FPA finance trade in the same consumer goods market I would expect they are also trading well.I therefore agree with you the the market capital value of FPA does not place any [or very little] value on the appliance division.FPA finance has always been well reguarded by the market,and I see no reason for this to alter.

winner69

23-12-2010, 10:16 AM

percy

23-12-2010, 11:06 AM

A couple of years ago the finance arm was on the block ... take it off our hands please ... please ... but at least they didn't give it away and those Farmers customers keep it chugging along quite nicely ... which is jsut as well for FPA as a whole as it gives them something to keep the appliances division going

SCY hardly make any money selling stuff and jsut as well they have a finance arm or else they would be broke as well

Correct,but they haven't and are still expanding.One could say they are" positioning themselves for the upturn".Be interesting to see if,and when that occurs.Again the value of their finance company would be close to the whole company market cap.

macduffy

23-12-2010, 02:12 PM

Sales and Marketing mgr wings in @51 to take $20k worth ... They are all filling their boots. ... Buy when mgt buys ???

It's generally a good indicator.

Unless of course there's a clause in an employment contract that requires x% of remuneration to be paid in company stock?

root

23-12-2010, 05:53 PM

If their contracts are anything like the CEO's these guys would be required to hold a certain amount of stock against their salaries.....might as well buy at 51.

daniel

25-12-2010, 05:40 PM

Nah - I'd rather they do it later :p

Wonder if Haier are thinking of doing an Agria? Would be good time for it ;)

daniel

30-12-2010, 11:20 AM

This captured my attention this morning. Let's see how the market reacts (if at all).

Unsolicited offer for FPA shares

AUCKLAND, 30 December 2010 - Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited ("Fisher & Paykel Appliances") has become aware that an unsolicited offer has been made by Fairfield Securities L.P. to acquire Fisher & Paykel Appliances shares for NZ$0.32 per share.

The offer appears opportunistic and has not been endorsed by Fisher & Paykel Appliances. The offer price is significantly below the current market price for Fisher & Paykel Appliances shares, and accordingly it is recommended that shareholders do not accept the offer.

For further information, please contact

Matt Orr - VP Investor Relations
Ph 09 273-0582
Email matt.orr@fp.co.nz

ENDS

macduffy

30-12-2010, 12:55 PM

Why should the market react at all?

Mr Whimp's low-ball offers for shares in several leading companies has been well publicised - including in these threads - and any acceptances that he receives will be from totally uninformed shareholders. Anyone remotely interested in the market won't be taken in to thinking that Mr W's "prices" have any relationship to current values or shareprices.

daniel

13-01-2011, 02:34 PM

Interesting thought about the flood Belgarion. Flood is even more destructive to appliances than earthquake.

winner69

16-01-2011, 11:00 AM

Thats a lot of new appliances eh Belg

Not too good for insurers though

winner69

16-01-2011, 12:13 PM

... and now thousands more in Victoria under water .... even more replacements

Do they buy them all through Harvey Norman .... they could be busy in the coming months

h2so4

16-01-2011, 12:51 PM

Read somewhere that 30,000 homes and businesses went underwater to some extent. Most appliances will be on the ground floor of homes so just a few feet would have been enough to ruin many appliances. ... 30,000 ... That's a shed load of new appliances.

I'm pretty sure that flood damged appliances are only good for scrap metal as the silt just stuffs everything electric. Anyone confirm this?

Media hype. I think you could safely halve that number.

Anna Naum

17-01-2011, 11:03 AM

SO FAP get say 30% of the insured part....(press in AU suggesting only 50% insured for contents) so even at 60,000 that is only 9,000 units @ say $100 profit = $900k. Not a lot really

Balance

17-01-2011, 11:14 AM

Chinese will move to 50% at the first opportunity - just like with NZS and PGW.

Anna Naum

17-01-2011, 01:27 PM

A hefty increase on what the Appliances side of the business is doing now :-) ... And even those un-insured will need replacements ... Lets say 1.8 mill ... :-) ... And if a whole bunch unaffected trade up and donnate their old working ones to the un-insured = better margins.

With the way the economy is, they may replace one or two items but will wait on the rest. Either way, we agree it is not a lot of money in the scheme of what this puppy should be earning.

fwu005

20-01-2011, 12:22 AM

Chinese will move to 50% at the first opportunity - just like with NZS and PGW.

Just saw more and more Hier appliances in traditional FPA stores at half or even less prices and more Hier marketing ads. Any ideal what is the status of FPA sell into China ?

NZS and PGW have unique resources which China can not steal. Manufacture sects are easily compete with China, getting hard and hard.

Good luck to all FPA holders

daniel

20-01-2011, 09:26 PM

Bottom line is Haier did not buy FPA to kill it.

FPA has many valuable resources that Haier does not have. Distribution network in Oz and NZ, relationships with retailers, core technologies (direct drive, no-oil compressor, good industrial design, etc.). For Haier, investing in FPA is a fast, easy and cheap (when FPA struggled with its debt mountain) way to secure, or at the very least, share some of those resources.

Having said that I also do not believe Haier views FPA a real business partner, nor a real threat or enemy in the global whiteware market.

Haier is an agressive company in china (always has been), and sometimes lacks the real long-term vision but instead focus on short-term benefits and rewards.

What FPA can get out from this "partnership" with Haier depends on how smart the company management deal with Haier. Let's see how that plays out.

I also very much doubt FPA could stir anything up in the crowded whiteware market in china，with many local, US and european manufacturers already well established. It's simply too late, and the market is too tough for FPA. They could have made the move at least 10 years ago. Actually I might be wrong, it might have to be 15 years ago. Every housewife in china would know whiteware brands like whirlpool, electroflux, siemens, LG, samsung, and local whiteware manufacturers like Haier, midea, meiling, rongsheng, etc, etc. It is a big cake but it is also very crowded for newcomers like FPA to take a decent bite.

The absolutely worst scenario is that FPA will have a slow and painful death with Haier taking over its market share over time, and the eventual brand take-over by Haier. I hope I'm wrong, as I'm holding quite a number of FPA shares. FPA is a respectable kiwi company (albeit being slow-responding to globalisation) with good, robust, and at times innovative products. But as we all know, sometimes it's not the noble and respectable who thrives, like IBM's PC business.

Just saw more and more Hier appliances in traditional FPA stores at half or even less prices and more Hier marketing ads. Any ideal what is the status of FPA sell into China ?

NZS and PGW have unique resources which China can not steal. Manufacture sects are easily compete with China, getting hard and hard.

Good luck to all FPA holders

winner69

20-01-2011, 09:32 PM

.......
The absolutely worst scenario is that FPA will have a slow and painful death with Haier taking over its market share over time, and the eventual brand take-over by Haier. I hope I'm wrong, as I'm holding quite a number of FPA shares. FPA is a respectable kiwi company (albeit being slow-responding to globalisation) with good, robust, and at times innovative products. But as we all know, sometimes it's not the noble and respectable who thrives, like IBM's PC business.

Seems a pretty good summary as to might happen to the appliances business ... even after they have they hocked off the finance arm to keep themselves going for a more years

winner69

12-02-2011, 01:58 PM

Jenny on Sharechat with a First Capital report on Sharechat says maybe hard times for appliances coming up

Mentions that Whirlpool and Electrolux are seeing increasing raw materials costs and subdued markets in the developed world .... and suggests that there is now a " ...earnings and margin risk facing Fisher & Paykel (and the industry) at present," .

Goes on to say that FPA is essentially stuffed if this is true ..... jeez the appliances division is ahrdly amking any money now so what would reduced margins do .... turn what ever profit there is into a loss

All one can hope is that they don't bleed the finance arm dry .... maybe they should spin it off before too much damage is done to it and it is still worth something

So all have been sucked into the hype that the global manufacturing strategy was going to bring in zillions .... in reality they had to do such a thing just to stay afloat .... not to make any more money

And in true analyst fashion rerates it to underperform from outperform .... but better hold in case Haier takes puts them out of their misery

Amazing the similarity between FPA and PGW .... if they didn't ahve finance arms they would both be well and truely f###ed.

Just think that not so long ago the FPA finance arm was non-core and ready to be hocked off .... and PGW did hock off their finance arm before starting up a new one

root

16-02-2011, 02:09 PM

FPA to move some production capacity from their East Tamaki plant to their Thailand plant this year, has to be a step in the right direction as far as reducing production costs, better to run one plant hard out as opposed to two plants half speed. No expected redundancies at this stage.

This would be the thin end of the wedge as far as winding up NZ production is concerned.

DISC: Unsubstantiated, Hold no FPA

root

17-02-2011, 06:39 AM

daniel

17-02-2011, 07:54 PM

Thanks very much for the update.

Announcement was made to NZ staff yesterday, up to 30% of production capacity to move by October. No more moves signalled till March 2012.

dartMonkey

24-02-2011, 10:09 AM

And with 1 buyer for 200000 at .57 it looks like they haven't quite got their fill ...
Can't help but feel that they have been sustaining the price over the last few weeks.

winner69

24-02-2011, 10:29 AM

And with 1 buyer for 200000 at .57 it looks like they haven't quite got their fill ...
Can't help but feel that they have been sustaining the price over the last few weeks.

isn't it a bugger that when you have so much money to 'invest' and not get too much out of sync with all the other 'investors' you have to keep buying things .... even if they are a bit of a dog

Phaedrus

24-02-2011, 02:07 PM

I bought into FPA way, way too early.... Too true. Buying into a downtrending stock is never a good idea - regardless of how good the fundamentals might appear to be.

... but the opportunity cost irks me most! So it should. While FPA has been falling from 88 cents to 57 cents, the NZSX50 Index has risen from 2990 to 3362. FPA has now crabbed sideways in a trading range for over 9 months, so far, and your opportunity cost continues to climb ever higher as the rest of the market booms.

TA'ers would be laughing at fundies over this one. Looking on in puzzlement, more likely, Belg. You continue to be our ST "poster boy" though, providing example after example after example of the folly of buying downtrending stocks, averaging down, and ignoring a falling OBV plot.

And we'd deserve it. Indeed. The real tragedy here Belg is that you know all this stuff and yet persist buying in the absence of any technical buy signals. For the life of me, I cannot understand why you keep doing this - we can tell from your comments below that you know you are being very naughty! Belg, if you don't learn from your mistakes you will simply keep on repeating them. This textbook example may help others to avoid the same fate.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FPA224.gif

elZorro

24-02-2011, 02:27 PM

Belgarion, you have my commiserations - I have similar results that have been the subject of pointed (but educational) posts. It'd be even funnier if there was no money involved. I have picked FPA for the annual competition, mainly because I figured it can only go one way from here, and is trading in a tighter band.

Fair enough comments from Mr P, the charts don't lie.

elZorro

24-02-2011, 06:12 PM

Charts do lie. And, over the longer term, they lie often.

You know I have to agree, good quality companies should eventually show their worth. The annoying thing about TA people is that with a minimal or zero knowledge of a company, they can still usually pick the best time to buy/sell. I think that FA gives you a stab at the possible gains/losses in a share, a reason to invest or divest.

dartMonkey

25-02-2011, 01:38 AM

Classic ...
3 good friends in my own mind ...
Phaedrus who should need no further explanation ...
Belg because he's a computer freak and picked a bottom at .50 (? he's still got smelly fingers though and he's not a supporter of the great god Hone) ...
El Zorro because he likes gel ...

this share to me over the last few weeks, and perhaps before, is interesting ...
I use ASB so watch the number and size of bids either side ...
because lately it has been dominated by "big" buyers at the bottom end

that "artificially" keeps the price up
artificially or not the price is still up ... ???

interesting because in NZ, and NZ alone, because of the small size and govt restrictions on what instos can buy it's probably worth doing a bit of research and investment strategy based on that ...
Seems to be a significant influence on other shares too ...

DISC: bought at a damn site more than current but still winning because my ego lies about 2 prior purchase and sales at ...

elZorro

25-02-2011, 09:11 PM

Thanks elZorro but I don't need them. I have decent stash which I'm holding at an average price of 56c. I enjoy Phaedrus's light hearted chastisements but don't take them all that seriously as he plays his game and I play mine and yet (oddly) we both make money. If you want some serious amusement as to our very different styles, check out the HBY thread where Phaedrus had quite a lot of fun at my expense. But hey! Look who's laughing now. I'm pretty sure FPA won't be much different and when Phaedrus tells us the time we should have bought FPA I'm pretty sure I'll be below his entry price. We'll see.

My gripe with myself is the opportunity cost due to people just not buying big ticket items and people not building new homes which need new FPA stuff.

I am in awe Belgarion, I have not bought HBY, found the thread interesting all right. We'll have to resurrect it. The obscenely young share guru at work pointed HBY out to me the other day. Of course I am waiting for OGC to return to the staggering heights it achieved mid 2010, and to get Phaedrus off my back too.. I created this video which needs another outing, and you might enjoy it..

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/10369800/

K1W1G0LD

25-02-2011, 10:01 PM

Thanks elZorro but I don't need them. I have decent stash which I'm holding at a an average price of 56c. I enjoy Phaedrus's light hearted chastisements but don't take them all that serously as he plays his game and I play mine and yet (oddly) we both make money. If you want some serious amusement as to our very different styles, check out the HBY thread where Phaedrus had quite a lot of fun at my expense. But hey! Look who's laughing now. I'm pretty sure FPA won't be much different and when Phaedrus tells us the time we should have bought FPA I'm pretty sure I'll be below his entry price. We'll see.

My grip with myself is the opportunity cost due to people just not buying big ticket items and people not building new home which need new FPA stuff.

Sorry to burst your bubble Belgarion , but F&P appliances are crap and getting worse by the year. I've worked in Retail for a while now and the Chinese brands are taking over the bottom end and the Euro's the top end, F&P are getting the crumbs............. I would'nt touch their products with a barge pole, they're too dear and the quality has deteriorated. Just ask any salesperson in our largest department store chain how F&P are doing saleswise. On that basis alone I'd stay well away from FPA...............unless you're dreaming of a takeover .

elZorro

26-02-2011, 09:47 AM

Very odd indeed. Mr P actually looks a lot like me. Spooky coincidence?

Do you mean a youthful, urban sophisticate with a well-schooled accent? :)

There are limited actor choices in the package, for each movie set. No NZ accents either, which is probably a good thing..

MrDevine

27-02-2011, 08:40 PM

Turnarounds have been known to happen. F&P's problem is they have great products but haven't had the right brand to sell them with. If they can solve this problem, they'll be away. The finance company side of the business should see them through, unless of course the great kiwi shareholder mentality comes to the fore and we sell out to the Chinese for peanuts.

Mr D.

POSSUM THE CAT

28-02-2011, 10:53 AM

elZorro

28-02-2011, 11:52 AM

Mr Devine what great products the good F&P appliances are made by Haier The dishdrawer would have flopped if it was not for the requirements of the Jewish Religion have a look at the reliability reports on the F&P dishdrawer Nobody would buy it on reliability. Also would the finance company even exist if it was not financing F&P Dealers & F&P products.

Can I say: Nothing is black and white, go back a few pages and there has been a big discussion on F&P reliability. Maybe the issue is their gear is/was too good, stays working too long. My F&P washing machine is over 10 years old, still doing the job. You can buy them second hand for about $150. The dual dishdrawer is unique, and anyone designing that would know there'd be trouble with water seals unless the customers were careful. F&P must have a good R&D team, and they do look after their products in terms of backup. Go buy yourself a Chinese brand cheapie if you want, you'll need to replace it in just a few years or less, because there will be no backup.

POSSUM THE CAT

28-02-2011, 01:25 PM

gonzo56

28-02-2011, 01:32 PM

El Zorro I have owned F&P appliances & they will not stand up to the work. The last reliable F&P appliances that I have owned was the old Wringer Washing Machine & the very early model clothes driers.
Haha, too true! Our F&P ceramic cooktop sometimes gets stuck on full power, even if it's set to low!

elZorro

28-02-2011, 08:29 PM

Hello Possum, surely you had a good run with the F&P 400 series washing machine? Both F&P units must have been better than our Hoovermatic Twintub.. always blocking up and rolling clothes in knots.

Gonzo: reminds me of my first flat: the neighbours warned us to watch the stove, it worked 'very fast'. We forgot about that, and the first time we used the oven, the item caught on fire. The thermostat was jammed on, so we got it fixed. Perhaps you should do the same with your cooktop?

Anyway, this is not helping FPA, we should all go out and buy some..:)

POSSUM THE CAT

01-03-2011, 11:39 AM

elZorro

01-03-2011, 01:09 PM

elZorro the only F&P automatic washing machine I have owned was an absolute heap of crap. Replaced with Simpson No problems in the time I had It Son a has F&P Ice & Water double door fridge about $5000.00 worth about 3 years old and you cannot touch it with out burning your hand or wearing gloves & they do not want to know about it. I will take all yours if you pay me 10cents each to take them. this is my estimation of their worth. Notice the directors with brains are quitting.

Re directors: do you mean http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/waters-leaves-fisher-paykel-appliances-board-nn-87110

I find it hard to believe that F&P won't back up a large appliance. Some of their gear is not made by them, but is imported through others and rebadged. When you say burn, is that a freeze burn, hot burn or electrical?

There will always be a small portion of any range of gear which will fail in some way. It's the putting right that counts (now where did that come from?).

Lizard

01-03-2011, 02:54 PM

Oh dear...I was just thinking the other day that I would know it was time to give up on FPA if I saw RW leave. Had not caught up with the news that he was...

POSSUM THE CAT

01-03-2011, 03:16 PM

elZorroit is just about Red Hot the kids are not allowed to go near the fridge. Most of the stuff they rebrand is Whirlpool & very good. But not allways. Whirlpool will rebrand everything. Picked up that a Whirlpool fridge was a SAMSUNG and a lower grade model than the SAMSUNG one further down the shop at 25% more than the SAMSUNG branded one

K1W1G0LD

02-03-2011, 08:49 PM

Kiwigold, FPA is also a finance company, not just a whiteware manufacturer.

Yes I know Belgarion, I would say that makes 2 good reasons to steer clear of them.

winner69

04-04-2011, 01:25 PM

AMP have increased their stake in FPA from 5% to 6%. I guess that would explain the rise over the last few months.

I guess the next question is at what price will they stop buying? ;)

I guess when they run out of money to invest .... have to put the dosh somewhere eh Belg ... even if they are not too keen on some stocks

By the looks of the notices today must have invested in almost everything but the kitchen sink .... (Broadway didn't seem to be on the list)

winner69

04-04-2011, 01:38 PM

Belg ... weren't buying .... just merging the AMP and AXA holdings in the AMP name

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4845551/AMP-AXA-merger-boosts-holdings

grasschoppa

18-05-2011, 05:25 AM

Are the up coming results, going to indicate a company in its death throes?
FPA is a company that suffers from lack of enthusiasm in keeping shareholders happy. (Management and directors are not making me rich)

I always hear revised guidance "due to difficult trading conditions" profit guidence will be dismal again.

The upcoming results will make me happy if dividends are reinstated.

FPA is one of the great Kiwi icons that has gone global and should be doing really really well.
I think it is time for the management and bored, to plant a bomb under their corporate leather chairs or move aside and move the company overseas to a hungrier and more dynamic structure.
I starting feel the need to move entirely away from the shackels of governece of self righteous complacency.
As for now its very quiet on the investor welfare news front, lets see what happens.

winner69

18-05-2011, 06:49 AM

Interesting comments grasschoppa

Most saw global manufacturing strategy was for growth - but essentially they were dead without using cheap labour elsewhere .... it was not a growth strategy .... it was a survival strategy ... nothing else

FPA probably is in its death throes .... at least, as you point out, in its present state

Best if put out of its misery and be merged into somebody who can compete in the global market. It won't be the case of NZ shareholders being weak and selling out to overseas people ... they will be selling cause they know that this sort of manufacturing is not what NZ is all about and sadly has no future. At least the sexy part of the business has been separated out.

The impending FPA ann will be interesting to see if any hints about the future prospects of the finance arm ... remember Bill hinted the govt might be putting somethig aside just in case

grasschoppa

18-05-2011, 10:34 AM

Hoop

18-05-2011, 11:44 AM

Hi Winner,
NZ will never be the place for global manufacturing with a Govt as we have, too much everything has killed many golden gooses.
However moving to Thailand is not that smart as FPA is now on the wrong side of the curve, Thailand is an emerging rich nation so manafacturing cost will spiral higher as wealth meets timeline.
NZ will colapse under the weight of beaurecratic shackles one day, manufacturing may have a place here then.

Grasschoppa..have a look here http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings and see what the world bank thinks of NZ.......I was surprised.
Manufacturing in a high income per capita country will always have high labour costs. Any business who is thinking of moving to a low income per capita country should look at how easy it is to set up and run in those countries. Notice in that table rankings that low income countries are low down the rankings of business regulations....Thailand however is an exemption and is up there at rank 19 which is very good.

macduffy

18-05-2011, 12:05 PM

Thanks for that, Hoop. Yes, it is surprising how well NZ ranks on those criteria, considering how hard done by we feel at times!

FPA's problems have more to do with relatively small scale manufacture of bulky "commodity" products, competing against low labour cost rivals from a base far distant from the big markets - IMO. Constant innovation and concentration on niche products makes up for that to an extent but consumers really want the lowest cost - therefore greatest mass-produced - whiteware, available.

winner69

27-05-2011, 09:32 AM

FY Out. Mostly good but not specactular but good signs of some trend reversals ... Still crunching digesting.

I thought it was bllody good belg

From the reports it says margins improving and with all the things in place appliances will soon start to fire ... then watch out

Finance has committed financing to cover a run when the guarantee runs out ... thats good so doen to business of making money ... obviously the book in good shape

But then again they only made $30m this year (normalised) but it has been a tough year eh

$30m implies a current PE of 13 so if the $30m increases as it should one should never see a shareprice of 55 cents again

Is that how you see it belg

Lizard

27-05-2011, 09:21 PM

Only just got a chance to look (took a while to work through the pages until the picture cleared enough!). Actually pretty impressed overall. Debt well down on the back of strong cashflow. Finance operations stable while transitioning away from debenture funding. Appliances was never going to be wonderful, but could have been worse. Not sure how much pick-up they are likely to see in first half, but looks pretty well-positioned to me! :)

RRR

28-05-2011, 08:54 PM

Good result. There was enough cash for dividend though. FPA is now a turnaround story, but sales continue to fall except in Australia and Rest of World(too small for FPA). Are they going to pay off $100 million debt and aim to be a no debt company or are they going to keep some debt - there was no mention of that in the report.

kiwi_on_OE

29-05-2011, 01:30 AM

RRR - reduced capex last year increasing by 20m this year. They also reduced working capital last year about 40m, which they won't be doing again. Don't think they will be reducing their debt by much this year. Comment about not paying a div this year is consistent with that - they don't want to increase their debt to pay a div. Having said that, a div of 1 cent for the second half would have cost $7m, which isn't exactly a huge amount. Makes me wonder if there are other reasons for not paying - bigger capex to come in future years? Not much confidence that their business is now stable? Interest Cover Ratio of 4.1 is above min of 3.0, maybe it wouldn't take much to knock that down and breach the banking arrangements?

winner69

01-06-2011, 07:04 PM

Chalkie had a rave on FPA in the Dom Post today " Brand may be worth more than the sums of the parts'

Besides reinforcing that it is only a very profitable finance arm that puts any respectability into the overall respect Chalkie rightfully expresses his concern over appliances selling their technology to rivals is a risky strategy.

I agree with Chalkie that the 'brand' these days is the thing that drives sustainable value ..... but the current appliances strategy of becoming a components supplier (ie a commodities company) is a dangerous one ... and Chalkie says could be a big mistake

But then only worry about the shareprice tomorrow and never take into account what could happen in the long term ..... funny thing is though this is where TA comes into play .... follow the line on the chart and let the market tell you if things are going OK or that that startegy is wrong

percy

01-06-2011, 08:02 PM

winner69

01-06-2011, 08:14 PM

percy

01-06-2011, 08:33 PM

Chalkie did say in the short term this should be good for Appliances but makes the point that to prove (or showcase) its technology (ie components) it needs to put it all together in branded F&P product .... and then it is challenging itself to ensure its technology stays ahead of the competition else their customers will go elsewhere where to get components that are just as good or better than the F&P ones -- hence the mention of that dreaded word commodity supplier

So is the new strategy going to provide a sustainable future for F&P (for many years to come)

As I said this strategy will strengthen them.Look at the food business,Branded manufactures produce "home"brands that sit along side their own manufactured "name"brands.Same in motor industry,electrical,clothing, well in fact most industries.Should just bolt onto the existing business.If F&P don't do it others will. The challenge is to make money doing it. The old why bother question then comes relevant.
As they have spent years making very little profit from appliances,I would expect they would have already asked that question.

Phaedrus

01-06-2011, 08:37 PM

This is where TA comes into play .... follow the line on the chart and let the market tell you if things are going OK (or not)Today, FPA broke above the trading range that it had been trapped in for about a year.

We should not be surprised that this breakout from the trading range was Up rather than Down, because of the recent Bullish break of the OBV trendline that had held for 3 years.
(The OBV is supposed to be a leading indicator, because volume usually precedes price.)

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FPA61.gif

winner69

01-06-2011, 08:42 PM

As I said this strategy will strengthen them.Look at the food business,Branded manufactures produce "home"brands that sit along side their own manufactured "name"brands.Same in motor industry,electrical,clothing, well in fact most industries.Should just bolt onto the existing business.If F&P don't do it others will. The challenge is to make money doing it. The old why bother question then comes relevant.
As they have spent years making very little profit from appliances,I would expect they would have already asked that question.

I'm glad you didn't mention Wellington Drive Technology as an example of being a superior technology component supplier

RRR

01-06-2011, 08:49 PM

Thanks P for the chart update - some cheerful news. Your charts (past sin charts) in the Breakouts and other fun stuff section was actually quite depressing (no pun intended to anyone).
Even though the FPA chart has turned positive, I am very uneasy about this stock - falling sales worries me the most. May be this is how a cyclical stock like FPA 'turns around'. I will just go with the flow for now and see how they perform in the next 6-12 months.

percy

01-06-2011, 08:50 PM

I'm glad you didn't mention Wellington Drive Technology as an example of being a superior technology component supplier

No,and I didn't mention that Dulux most probably after the contract to produce Woolworth's home brand paint.!!!! lol.

winner69

01-06-2011, 09:07 PM

No,and I didn't mention that Dulux most probably after the contract to produce Woolworth's home brand paint.!!!! lol.

Dulux probably does rate the Dulux brabded paint a truely branded product but at the end of the day it is essentially a commodity .... and no doubt they make heaps of money out of selling Dulux branded money and only a little bit of money out of selling the Woolies housebrand .... but the Dulux branded stuff gives them the 'credentials' to make the house brand stuff

Must make another file note to myself as Dulux closed at another high today

percy

01-06-2011, 09:19 PM

Dulux probably does rate the Dulux brabded paint a truely branded product but at the end of the day it is essentially a commodity .... and no doubt they make heaps of money out of selling Dulux branded money and only a little bit of money out of selling the Woolies housebrand .... but the Dulux branded stuff gives them the 'credentials' to make the house brand stuff

Must make another file note to myself as Dulux closed at another high today

Just replace the Dulux name in your reply to F&P and you have my point.However retailers make better margins on 'home"brands.
No more file notes,better remembering the Marsden girl/girls.

winner69

02-06-2011, 09:21 AM

Just replace the Dulux name in your reply to F&P and you have my point.However retailers make better margins on 'home"brands.
No more file notes,better remembering the Marsden girl/girls.

Maybe we are on different wavelenghts but doing as you suggest only supports my argument .... the real value in FPA is the 'brand' (ie technology and all that) and if they started making a 'housebrand' wouldn't that just turn them into a components supplier with no real competitive advantage (like Wgtn Drive)

Orwell once said 'People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” .... maybe that's my problem in this discussion

Belg must have an opinion

percy

02-06-2011, 11:48 AM

Maybe we are on different wavelenghts but doing as you suggest only supports my argument .... the real value in FPA is the 'brand' (ie technology and all that) and if they started making a 'housebrand' wouldn't that just turn them into a components supplier with no real competitive advantage (like Wgtn Drive)

Orwell once said 'People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” .... maybe that's my problem in this discussion

Belg must have an opinion

My point is that Dulux making a home brand will not affect their Dulux brand.Someone will make it.Same with F&P.The components they make are only components,or home brand,not F&P branded products.The manufacturer of home brand will make less margin or profit than a branded product.However it is extra profit,and they can use existing manufacturing capacity to do it. No way are F&P stopping from being a brand manufacturer,they are just adding component manufacturer to their stable.If they said they saw a brighter future in components than branded products then you would know they are lost.

winner69

02-06-2011, 12:03 PM

My point is that Dulux making a home brand will not affect their Dulux brand.Someone will make it.Same with F&P.The components they make are only components,or home brand,not F&P branded products.The manufacturer of home brand will make less margin or profit than a branded product.However it is extra profit,and they can use existing manufacturing capacity to do it. No way are F&P stopping from being a brand manufacturer,they are just adding component manufacturer to their stable.If they said they saw a brighter future in components than branded products then you would know they are lost.

The last sentence was what Chalkie was getting at ..... he thinks that is what it is going to end up

The impression I also got was that the components they were going to make and sell to competitors were based on techmology that they themselves had developed .... which is different from say Dulux making an inferior quality product and sellng cheaper as a housebrand

percy

02-06-2011, 12:34 PM

The last sentence was what Chalkie was getting at ..... he thinks that is what it is going to end up

The impression I also got was that the components they were going to make and sell to competitors were based on techmology that they themselves had developed .... which is different from say Dulux making an inferior quality product and sellng cheaper as a housebrand
I read the article and that was what chalkie was getting at.The present chalkie is David Hargraves,who does not share the same intellect as previous chalkies.So I would not take a lot of notice of his conculsions. A component manufacturer usually manufacters to the customer's specifications.Should they sell components to competitors based on their own technology they should get a better margin.
I is very common practice in motor and other industries for one manufacturer to make compnents for another. We have even seen Ford and Mazda sell the same car as different brands.
I see it as extra for F&P not as instead [as chalkie sees it].

winner69

19-06-2011, 07:42 PM

Carmel Fisher, God bless the woman, in her Sunday Star Times column did a rave on Appliances - great NZ iconic company which (once) led the world in innovation and as such the brand should be making zillions .... and she compared them to Nokia.

Nokia's profit has halved over the last 5 years and its share price fared even worse. She says Nokia has been good at what it does but it has been left behind as more nimble competitors have stolen market share. The company's brand has not been enough to protect profitability

I think the message she was getting across was that it is important to recognise the difference between a cyclical downturn and a business in terminal decline ... and as such buying either Nokia or FPA on market dips is not a good strategy

Should try to read the whiole article

percy

19-06-2011, 09:04 PM

elZorro

19-06-2011, 09:16 PM

A few years back, FPA spent millions developing the dual dishdrawer.They probably knew it would leak or have issues with the two drawer surfaces to seal, but there was a good reason to continue. It opened up a market worldwide for them. A foothold they needed. Apart from selling some of their techy spare parts to larger manufacturers, FPA seem to have lost that spark over the last few years. An extra set of designers and engineers have just been employed. Pity they couldn't meet the govt requirement for % of R&D spend last year, like Rakon and Gallagher Group. I hope they don't miss any chance to add new products that are designed in NZ, and which could forge a new market opening overseas.

More about the dishdrawer design rationale. (http://www.betterbydesign.org.nz/why-design/design-led-business/fisher-paykel)

Lizard

13-07-2011, 03:10 PM

Bit of a move happening here on FPA - may be just one of the routine accumulations. Saw a bit of that on Monday too. Recent break-out fell back into trading range I think, but could be still trying for a lift-off.

Recent result was certainly promising and the finance arm may have found a bit more favour of late - I know a few investors considering putting money in to debentures now it looks certain to survive ex-guarantee. Also some speculation they may do a bond issue for more liquid option for investors. Plus retail spending on large-ticket items in June may have been positive for appliances, so a few possibilities for things to start going their way.

Lizard

21-07-2011, 01:50 PM

Talk about hopeless journalism!

Whiteware manufacturer F&P Appliances fell 3.2 per cent to 60c, with the strength of the New Zealand dollar making the company's goods less affordable to offshore customers. The kiwi touched a new post-float high yesterday and recently traded at US 85.64c.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/5319429/Dollar-takes-its-toll-on-F-P

Yep, and all on about $4,000 worth of trades, after a 1.5cps rise into the close yesterday.

winner69

23-07-2011, 05:37 PM

Talk about hopeless journalism!

Whiteware manufacturer F&P Appliances fell 3.2 per cent to 60c, with the strength of the New Zealand dollar making the company's goods less affordable to offshore customers. The kiwi touched a new post-float high yesterday and recently traded at US 85.64c.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/5319429/Dollar-takes-its-toll-on-F-P

Prob jason rang his mate/contact at Craigs and this is what they told him

Lizard

25-08-2011, 01:13 PM

Turns out it is forex that is crimping things, just happens that it's the USD/AUD hedge book doing the damage.

Market will be pretty discouraged by the agm speech. Looks like heading below the GFC cap-raising prices, despite having sorted the debt - well at least they had. Now they're talking yet more capex to reshuffle manufacturing and more funding for the finance side (though that was predictable). No mention on debenture renewal rates from these guys, so quite likely on the soft side and won't be helped by general uneasiness from FPA's outlook.

macduffy

25-08-2011, 05:47 PM

Taking all those "ifs' and "buts" into account, belgy, NPAT of between $42 and $52m looks a bit out of reach IMO.

I don't think it's a case of talking the market down - more a case of preparing the market for a bit more bad news!

Lizard

25-08-2011, 06:33 PM

It wasn't NPAT of $42-$52m Belg, it was operating earnings before interest and tax. Fortunately, debt has fallen, so there isn't too much interest to pay this year I would think, so NPAT maybe about $30-$35m?

To be honest, I thought it got sold down way too low today for that forecast, but I guess investors feel that they have disappointed so repeatedly that they'll probably wipe another $20m off that forecast before year end. Plus nobody wants to wait out a slow year these days - always seems better to move the money to the next trade and come back next year... so much so that I am starting to think the time for contrarianism and buying the bad news may actually have some potential again, given that balance sheets are now so much stronger.

Don't worry, the Stuff reporters (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/5507334/F-P-Appliances-slashes-forecast) look to have got it wrong too.

If these concerns are realised over the remainder of the financial year, and current exchange rates persist, the Board's view is that F&P Appliances' full year forecast operating earnings before interest and tax will be between $10 million and $20 million," said Turner.

They've clearly misquoted Turner whose actual presentation reads "Appliances" not "F&P Appliances" and then also taken the range given as NPAT, as they then wrote the following:

The meteoric rise of the Australian dollar against the US dollar is a major reason Fisher & Paykel Appliances slashed earnings expectations to between $10 million and $20 million in the current financial year.

That result compares with a $33.5 million for the financial year ending 31 March 2011, itself a turnaround from the company's $83.3 million loss the previous year.

Which also ignores the fact that the $33.5m included a one off gain on the sale of land and the normalised figure was $30m NPAT. Normalised EBIT for last year was $58.3m, so they are certainly predicting further declines, but the improvement in debt position may well offset that decline if they can (by some unusual stroke of luck) come in at the tope of their forecast range.

bung5

25-08-2011, 07:37 PM

Lizard

25-08-2011, 08:02 PM

It wasn't NPAT of $42-$52m Belg, it was operating earnings before interest and tax. Fortunately, debt has fallen, so there isn't too much interest to pay this year I would think, so NPAT maybe about $30-$35m?

Had a closer look. Might need to allow for about $7m net interest on debt this year, so mid-range would be around $28m NPAT tax-normal. PE of 10.4 at 48cps. Things can't go wrong for them forever though, can they?

The finance business got a scarily small portion of the attention in both the Chairman's and the CEO's agm speeches - scarey given it is contributing the bulk of earnings for now and faces a few hurdles. There was mention of "a number of funding strategies", but no more detail on what they are. Has the potential to be an Achilles heel, so I hope they're giving it more attention than that behind the scenes.

RRR

21-09-2011, 09:10 PM

Another exporter with bleak prospects, at least in the near future - blame the currency. Good decision not to average down. Cheap FPA is getting cheaper. Still holding and ever appreciating NZ$ is the king for for me now.

Lizard

13-10-2011, 07:10 PM

Breakout in progress? ... What do the charts say?

Not much volume there today. Usually shows its colours going into results though, so we'll see next month...

Big question, what is happening in Finance side given it's contribution? If they don't provide more details on that next time they present, would have to wonder.

waikare

14-10-2011, 08:25 AM

On advise of our sparkie,he recommended that we replace our faulty oven with a F&P product. Looking for the best deal, I approached three national wide and one local retailer in the Tauranga & the Mount, two of the nation wide and the local retailer had no stock of ceramic top model which were had decided to purchase, the other nation wide retailer sold me their display one, all of the four shops were awaiting further supplies in November. Also one of the nation wide retailers rang their HO in Auckland, they were also waiting for Novembers delivery. We were tempted to purchase another brand of ceramic top, rather than wait 3 / 4 weeks for delivery.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but aren’t we in some sort of recession, and normally big ticket items are a little harder to sell, and I thought there would have been a over supply and retailers keen to sell at discount rates.
If the product is not on the shop floor when the punters wants it, they will look at alternative which is usually another brand.
As a shareholder in FPA I am a little annoyed at this situation, how is the company expected to make a profit for its shareholders when their goods are not available for sale, there are heeps of other brands to choose from.

I have let F&P know their slapdash attitude to supply and demand.

percy

14-10-2011, 08:47 AM

On advise of our sparkie,he recommended that we replace our faulty oven with a F&P product. Looking for the best deal, I approached three national wide and one local retailer in the Tauranga & the Mount, two of the nation wide and the local retailer had no stock of ceramic top model which were had decided to purchase, the other nation wide retailer sold me their display one, all of the four shops were awaiting further supplies in November. Also one of the nation wide retailers rang their HO in Auckland, they were also waiting for Novembers delivery. We were tempted to purchase another brand of ceramic top, rather than wait 3 / 4 weeks for delivery.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but aren’t we in some sort of recession, and normally big ticket items are a little harder to sell, and I thought there would have been a over supply and retailers keen to sell at discount rates.

If the product is not on the shop floor when the punters wants it, they will look at alternative which is usually another brand.
As a shareholder in FPA I am a little annoyed at this situation, how is the company expected to make a profit for its shareholders when their goods are not available for sale, there are heeps of other brands to choose from.

I have let F&P know their slapdash attitude to supply and demand.

No one wants to carry stock now days.Same in most industries.Just in time supply chain does not work.As you pointed out customers will look to buy another producer's product if it is in stock.In Chch everything is 6 weeks ex Auckland.
I expect ceremic tops are made just north of auckland]China]
You could possibly have gone down to your local beach and found one ex Rena.

Hoop

14-10-2011, 11:32 AM

Breakout in progress? ... What do the charts say?

Nah..no breakout yet..Belg
The chart below is a bit flattering ..she ain't that pretty. If I create a longer period chart it would show a long trading range (64 / 50) lasting 22 months being broken downwards on the 25 August. FPA has not recovered enough to re-enter that trading range. The depth figures today shows strong resistance at 49 and 50.
With no buyers so far this morning kinda tells the story..eh?

Another exporter with bleak prospects, at least in the near future - blame the currency. Good decision not to average down. Cheap FPA is getting cheaper. Still holding and ever appreciating NZ$ is the king for for me now.

Hi RRR I too thought the NZ$ currency maybe a problem as the media seems to be blaming the high NZ$ for everything these days.
I added a comparison FPA/NZ$-US$ on the chart (white line)..there is no negative correlation....can't blame the NZ$ for the 25 August breakdown.....just reinforces my view that the Media is a very bad teacher.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/zzaur6z2so0phwc5j.png

RRR

17-10-2011, 09:12 PM

Thanks Hoop - still trying to make sense of that chart!

Nice add for you which won some award in Aussie - http://mumbrella.com.au/fisher-paykel-toy-rabbit-ad-wins-mumbrella-ad-of-the-month-61103

FPA and Rakon have won many awards but they don't bring any rewards to the shareholders:)

winner69

10-11-2011, 01:19 PM

percy

10-11-2011, 03:27 PM

Surely the shareprice cant have a 3 in front of it soon .... after all iconic NZ companies are not meant to lose so much share holder wealth

Bugger me .... wrong again ... not that many years ago FPA shareprice did have a 3 in front of it .... can't be true, the chart must be wrong

winner69.
Have you noticed SCY who sell FPA products and use FPA to finance their finance company are doing a lot better than they were a year ago.?
SCY now have a 4 infront,instead of a 3.

Animeart

10-11-2011, 09:14 PM

Is this share still worth a look even at the current low price?
I though the Chinese takeover would have done a lot more good to the share price.

Felt really sorry for the people who once paid over $2 for this share.

Lizard

11-11-2011, 07:44 AM

Result due on the 25th.

All the talk is about the appliances. But it is finance that has made the money of late and maybe should be in focus here. Remember, ex-gov-guarantee, it is now heavily dependent on bank funding. What impact does a potential European banking crisis have on that?

We've heard a truckload from HNZ about their handling of the funding side, liquidity etc, etc, but FPA has virtually stopped talking about the prospects for finance side.

They look very under-valued if it is presumed that both parts of the business survive - is the market is implying this is not likely to be the case? That seems like a bit of a leap from last balance sheet, but stranger things have happened.

winner69

11-11-2011, 07:26 PM

Well well closed with a 3 in front of it .... and it was somebody who really wanted to sell at the end of the day that caused it

Where's Whatsup when we need him .... something up or just unloved

If somebody runs a NZX comp next year a definite pick is FPA eh Lizard

winner69

16-11-2011, 01:34 PM

Staying below 40 cents .... almost certain to come last in the NZX comp now ..... just proves dogs will always be dogs .... and hope they will improve is just a dream

Lizard

16-11-2011, 04:17 PM

Staying below 40 cents .... almost certain to come last in the NZX comp now ..... just proves dogs will always be dogs .... and hope they will improve is just a dream

Might be an entire conversation between the lines in that one... not sure.... but you were around when FBU was once a dog? You were around when RBD was once a dog? You were around when SKL was once a dog? Or DIL?

After all these years, I'm still not certain whether you are a Phaedrus trend-follower or a Belgarion bottom-feeder.... you seem to have Bi-trendual tendencies... :p

Anna Naum

16-11-2011, 04:27 PM

Might be an entire conversation between the lines in that one... not sure.... but you were around when FBU was once a dog? You were around when RBD was once a dog? You were around when SKL was once a dog? Or DIL?

After all these years, I'm still not certain whether you are a Phaedrus trend-follower or a Belgarion bottom-feeder.... you seem to have Bi-trendual tendencies... :p

Lizard your comments are confusing to me. Are you suggesting that FPA is like FBU, DIL and the likes and will rise from its grave?

Lizard

16-11-2011, 05:02 PM

Lizard your comments are confusing to me. Are you suggesting that FPA is like FBU, DIL and the likes and will rise from its grave?

I actually don't know. I think it is still possible. Sometimes dogs stay dogs, sometimes they don't. Recovery trades are some of the best, so always nice to pick. FPA is looking possible, but still early days, so non-committal.

I'm holding a few because I think the upside could be larger than the downside, but I'm kicking myself for jumping the gun. I don't know what the win rate is on these recovery things is for me - maybe 50% - 70%, but will still be "weather dependent". And there are still a few clouds around Finance and forex.

percy

16-11-2011, 05:47 PM

[.. you seem to have Bi-trendual tendencies... :p[/QUOTE]

Suddenly ,this thread has got really interesting.

winner69

25-11-2011, 10:27 AM

Xerof

25-11-2011, 11:03 AM

If you can get past all the 'normalised' crepe, the key cock-up was again their FX management.....

outlook appears soft in all sectors - fall in price appears logical

Lizard

25-11-2011, 05:37 PM

Pretty solid result considering all the **** they have had to put up with

just as well the Fiannce pullled them through .... and good to see all the strategic stuff around Appliances is starting to come together

Yeah, might be tempted to pick them for next years ST comp (if there is one). Although it does have the feeling that company culture must be struggling a bit by now under the weight of years of gloom...so could be a hard one to turn around easily from both a business and an investor sentiment perspective.

Speaking of sentiment, would have to wonder whether the Finance business is actually benefiting much from wearing the F&P name any more... as an investor, it's hardly reassuring these days - although the rates probably price the risk a bit better than a deposit at the local credit union does.

In normal times, $1b of revenue per annum should be able to generate them a comfortable $50m NPAT, but who knows when "normal" times are coming back... or if they ever actually exist :)

Anyway, I would say probably value down here but the impetus for a re-rate not yet visible... perhaps after the next result...

Animeart

29-11-2011, 11:11 PM

Does anyone know how big the N America and European makets are as a percentage of F&P's sales? I wonder how F&P can compete with all the local brands in "normal" times let alone during these super tough times. If the Europeans don't sort out the Euros by Jan 12 latest then I fear the road to recovery for F&P could be a lot longer then the shareholders would like.

Master98

02-12-2011, 01:56 PM

I'm now wondering what their intentions are ...
The possibility of investment company take over an industry company is quite low.

Lizard

02-12-2011, 07:06 PM

Orbis just love value. They get some right, they get some wrong. I'm not particularly swayed by them, as I know their judgement is about as good/bad as my own.

There was a bit of speculation on Radio NZ from various broker sources earlier this week regarding FPA being a possible takeover target at current low prices. I was interested that there was some buying in the morning and some selling down into it... it's not really a good sign. Brokers don't go spilling their best ideas on Radio NZ, sorry.

I would argue that if we're still in a deflationary squeeze, buying a 1 yr deposit in FPF at 7% ish would be a better investment right now... and only once enough people have done so, would I be keener on the shares. 40-something-% re-investment rates in the finance side is not going to cut it, even though the banks know a good thing and are prepared to finance the consumer-finance business if retail investors don't...

Master98

02-12-2011, 08:37 PM

3 of 6 analysts from reuters rated FPA "buy" with 1 year target 44c.

Sideshow Bob

02-12-2011, 09:03 PM

That just goes to show 3 brokers will be wrong - 3 out of 6 - thats the same odds as flipping a coin!

Lizard

05-01-2012, 03:21 PM

winner69

05-01-2012, 03:39 PM

Managed to briefly claw it's way back to having a "4" at the front of the price...some okay volume for this time of year too. Maybe Orbis just topping up to the max?

Maybe close to a buy signal, depending on where it closes...?

......and Belg building a pyramid of course

The comment from a broker on the brokers picks that no value is cuurently attached to the appliances bit might have got a few interested .... quite often these brokers tips seem to do well in the first week of the year

Lizard

05-01-2012, 05:32 PM

The comment from a broker on the brokers picks that no value is cuurently attached to the appliances bit might have got a few interested .... quite often these brokers tips seem to do well in the first week of the year

Yes, it does look rather more like that...

troyvdh

11-01-2012, 10:19 PM

elZorro

11-01-2012, 10:30 PM

....its a funny old world.....I own a few rentals....(30 yrs)....the new range of appliances...over the years....including the Elba range are well ....horrible....but cheap....re washing machines....give me a break.....when one of those machines break down....it will in all probability cost you ....well it depends really ....if you are watching the guy and if he cleans a filter ....

what am I saying here...Im not sure but that FPA remains a consistent...choice for brokers amazes me....

....have folk actually asked those who recommend FPA.....and like have them in there home....

...in my rentals and at home I have simpson

cheers

Troy, that is a terrible comment (treason!).. one rental prop owner I knew was busy fixing F&P Smartdrive washers in his garage with exchange PCBs, for extra cash. They are fairly reliable though, I used to fix the old F&P 400s, and it helped me through tertiary education.

Your tenants must be hard on gear. We have a 10-15 year old Smartdrive still going well, just a couple of repairs. Good on yer FPA.

But I do think FPA need to be looking at some new products. I know of one brilliant new prototype they turned down, cannot understand it.

troyvdh

11-01-2012, 10:56 PM

...Giday..el ..and thankyou...i cannot change the experiences I have had...man i loved the kelvinador 380...(complete with concrete)....

karen1

12-01-2012, 12:13 AM

LOL elZorro, read the above just after I sent you a PM!

With a husband who managed the test lab at FPA for 13 years over 30 years ago, we had access to cheap appliances, and in those days they were quality. Our first Kelvinator went like a dream for 15 years and we sold it in great condition to upsize.

They did used to produce a top quality product, way back when Woolf Fisher was alive. He was a great man, often walking around the factory in Mt Wellington and stopping to talk with staff. Frank Shacklock did likewise, as did Gary Paykel.

What happened, as is often the case, was that when Woolf died, and Frank became less involved, although I think Gary Paykel still had hands on for some years, the "family" went out of the business as it evolved over the years and there came the day when the business no longer lived up to it's reputation.

Sorry, I'm with Troy, Simpson is great!

(We still have a F&P drier, actually, it's around 40 years old, in great nic, probably only because it only gets used maybe a dozen times a year if that!)

biker

12-01-2012, 11:43 AM

It's not all bad. The following is from a F&P presentation.

PRODUCT QUALITY
Investment in quality systems and processes is starting to deliver
• Product quality over the product life cycle is an important touch point for our customers
• We have invested heavily in processes and systems to ensure we are best in class through the design, manufacture and after sales service of our products
• Warranty costs were reduced by $6m in FY11 and a further $1.7m in 1H FY12
• J.D. Power Consumer Survey in the U.S. rates the DishDrawer Dishwasher
• Ranked second best overall dishwasher and equal best in class for reliability
• Ranked equal best in class for
• Appearance
• Ease of use
• Performance; and
• Style
• Phase 7 DishDrawer Dishwasher will be released in December (U.S.)
• Fisher & Paykel voted the “Most Trusted Whiteware brand” in New Zealand and Australia
• For the last 11 years in New Zealand
• Last two years in Australia

winner69

12-01-2012, 06:33 PM

Lizard

12-01-2012, 08:33 PM

a bit of short lived hope?

Yes, I think so. As you pointed out, the buying looked to be mostly random-sized retail stuff. Probably advisors stuffing their management and monitoring clients with the firms top recs for the year. On the other side, big inwards trades in the morning...not a TA, but I'm guessing "distribution".

Still watching closely though, as it has the potential to turn hard at these levels. And I still hold a few, though the under-discussed finance side interests me as much as the appliances.

winner69

17-01-2012, 12:21 PM

OMG ... closer to 30 than 40 at the mo

POSSUM THE CAT

17-01-2012, 02:02 PM

Winner 69 when will it hit $0.10 should not be far away. that might be take over signal for the Chinese Shareholder

winner69

02-02-2012, 06:21 PM

Must be huge resuly coming up eh Sparky

ScrappyO

03-02-2012, 03:00 PM

Moving again today. Is FPA trending up now?............hope so.

RRR

03-02-2012, 09:10 PM

Still a value buy folks! Can some one please provide assistance with TA?

Lizard

14-02-2012, 05:49 PM

Well seems to be cracking along for us here - now at 46cps... just a pity I jumped the gun a couple of times and hence it's only just made it back to my average entry price. Sigh.

Snow Leopard

14-02-2012, 07:14 PM

On MACD she has cracked through two signal lines - the slow moving average and the +/- average (and both in the right direction - up!)

RSI says she has got some steam yet to build up, but Williams R says the heat is coming off a little.

Comprehensively broke through the BBands on the 3rd, and the volatility looks like its going to expand out.

It's going up ?

Monty Python RAF Banter (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKYL0tW-Ek)

ScrappyO

15-03-2012, 08:09 AM

Article in the Herald.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10792138

Looks like the share price has started to turn.

root

15-03-2012, 09:22 AM

Article in the Herald.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10792138

Looks like the share price has started to turn.

Interesting article, I wonder if Chris Cairns is one of there cricketing stars, he might have some good contacts.

whirly

17-04-2012, 01:25 PM

Off on a tear ... Any TA's want to tell us when we should have bought? ... discl: pyrimid complete :)

Well I came in a bit late as I didn't have any funds but I loaded up at 43.5 on the 8th of March. All indicators had turned well positive by then.

pierre

18-04-2012, 01:07 PM

If you don't mind Sparky, I'd prefer you to wait a bit longer before you start your sell-off, mine owe me 61c. I bought in a bit too soon a while back
and it would be nice to see the current momentum get the SP back with a 6 in front!

pierre

22-05-2012, 11:33 AM

Recently moved into our new home which we furnished with F&P appliances. Hope our contribution and support is reflected in a positive result in the ann this Thursday!

pierre

22-05-2012, 05:26 PM

But mainly hope FPA has got their forex sorted![/QUOTE]

Agreed Belg - that would make a very pleasant and hopefully, very profitable change.

Master98

24-05-2012, 09:05 AM

Earnings is about 2.5cps and PE is about 22, with no dividend declared.

macduffy

24-05-2012, 10:25 AM

They will obviously have better results for 2013 with the currency now down to 75c.

Yes, provided that they havn't hedged away the benefit of today's lower rates.

Lizard

24-05-2012, 02:25 PM

Belatedly arrived to agree with the rest of you. Think that result looks good. Agree with Belg - the decrease in revenue is perhaps the biggest concern, as slightly larger drop second half. Expecting to see further declines, but more than offset by component business, so not a major concern (margins on components can hardly be worse than appliances?).

I think we have probably seen the worse for FPA - not sure if we will see instant recovery, but I think a good case to accumulate with target 70cps over next 6-9 months.

They probably could have a paid a 1-2 cent div, but not enough to impress the market and not fully imputed. Would also rather they kept it - their debt overall does not look cheap and prefer lower for now - they will need investment in the components and technology business for both capex and working capital.

Forecasts for components and technology look impressive in terms of revenue, so will be interesting to see how they hit they bottom line. However, looks as though real potential will not show until 2014 onwards.

Finance side looks as though it could do with some improvement in retail debenture funding, as heavily dependent on the various tranches of bank funding put in place pre expiry of the govt guarantee.

Jim

27-05-2012, 06:18 PM

A dog never go higher than a dog

Master98

28-05-2012, 05:40 PM

some people here are very bullish about FPA which i can't see why, 2011-2012 fiscal year earnings is 2.54cps with no dividend declared, PE is 20.5 compare to average PE 11 this sector, current sp is too expensive, and coming year FPA trading condition will be getting worse because whole world uncertian economy, soft retail market and high appliance competition.

Hoop

28-05-2012, 07:26 PM

Short term weakness showing up...it all started announcement day (thursday 24th) Traders viewed the Full Year Report favourably at the opening but trading during the day developed a bearish behaviour...this is shown up at the close with a hanging man candle The next day Friday***** a candlestick sell pattern was triggered.
My Fridays chart showed a few sell signals and I suspect todays drop 52c down 2c (-3.7%) may trigger a couple more with the medium term investors..It is still a long term hold...so far.
There is a number of supports near by so 48 - 52 is a support zone area.

It's interesting to see ST posts with diverse range of FA comments...As I thought the Full Year Report was favourable considering FPA past it seems maybe that outside factors as well as investors lack of optimism in the near future could be causing this weakness....time will tell.

****Edit : - Error... the sell signal was today Monday.. "The sell signal is confirmed when a bearish candlestick closes below the open of the candlestick on the left side of the hanging man".

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FPA25052012.png

winner69

28-05-2012, 07:56 PM

The dreaded hangman formation .... according to the book needs confirmation of a change in trend .... and 2 down days since the hangman appeared is not good is it Hoop?

Or is it I can't read charts and have to say it is all load of bs and FPA is a screaming buy at 52 cents .... never again at this price they say .... jeez the market is stupid sometimes

RRR

28-05-2012, 08:47 PM

Thanks Hoop for the chart.
Appliance business
Positives - Debt only $65 million ($500 m in 2009) not a mean feat
Lower inventories - always a good sign with manufacturing companies
Component technology sales with higher margins commenced this year
Result skewed by one off cost (litigation-finance)
Property to be sold
Negatives Topline trending lower
Foreign exchange - damned whatever they do
Finance business - no need to mention, continues to perform very well

I think FPA is a classic turnaround.

pierre

20-08-2012, 03:59 PM

---and the doddery old fool has now staggered up to 62c.

Make sure there are no banana skins on the ground or buses coming round the corner!

RRR

20-08-2012, 07:35 PM

I hope they announce a dividend and if they do share price is bound to climb higher.

macduffy

20-08-2012, 08:52 PM

Yes, that is plausibly the sort of news that would be expected to be announced at an AGM. Fingers crossed.

Really?

My memory's not as good as it once was but I can't remember an occasion when a company waited for an AGM to announce a dividend. Would be a nice surprise though!

:)

RRR

20-08-2012, 09:04 PM

I expect some sort of announcement regarding reinstatement of dividend and DRP if any in this AGM. The management is very well aware of it!

pierre

21-08-2012, 04:52 PM

Now at 66 cents! There must be something positive coming - if not there will be a heap of disappointed punters - me included!

janner

21-08-2012, 05:38 PM

Not holding my breath..

Everwood

21-08-2012, 09:12 PM

I expect some sort of announcement regarding reinstatement of dividend and DRP if any in this AGM. The management is very well aware of it!

I am also hoping they will be reinstating dividend payments. Fingers crossed

Everwood

23-08-2012, 02:02 PM

It is nice to see they have written this in their Trading Update "The Board intends to resume dividend payments this year. Details of the amount and timing of any distribution will be announced in November according to the company’s usual cycle, subject to no unexpected material changes to the current trading assumptions." https://nzx.com/companies/FPA/announcements/226363

Lizard

23-08-2012, 02:18 PM

Reading through the agm speeches, I thought they sounded very positive. From my take on their EBIT forecasts, maybe looking at NPAT in the $48-$50m region? Better than I'd expected anyway - and have tentatively pushed up my valuation to 80cps.

Was encouraging to read of the efforts on product reliability front and new product lines. Seems like there is plenty happening on the appliance side - although seems FPA is still producing half the profits from the finance arm (with much less fanfare than appliances gets!).

winner69

23-08-2012, 02:24 PM

so the market was pretty clever at guessing about $50m NPAT = PE of 10 at the moment ... seems fair enough

But in a market that is up up and away mode one would expect 80 cents plus by Xmas

pierre

23-08-2012, 02:27 PM

What an exceptionally positive report from FPA! Net profit for the first four months of this year at $12.3m cf $4.7m for the pcp and looking pretty good for the year ahead - including the resumption of dividends to be confirmed in November.

A raft of new products to be released to the market, stopped the losses in USA, no forex dramas this year, growth in sales to OEMs and hopefully next year some F& P product sales action in China - all in all a much bnghter picture than any that they have painted for us over the past few years.

A great effort from the management and staff at F& P - let's hope that market conditions remain Ok and that they can deliver on the promise that their work deserves.

Maybe 4-5 cents a share divvie coming - what do you think?

pierre

23-08-2012, 03:03 PM

Well judging by the minimal action on the SP so far today looks like the announcement has just met everyone's expectations - but that's all.

As for the divvie - even 2-3 cents would be nice.

Discl - Hold a stack of F& P.

Lizard

23-08-2012, 03:14 PM

Maybe 4-5 cents a share divvie coming - what do you think?

More likely they go for 1cps at half year and 1-2cps final for starters. But I guess up to 4cps total is a possible if things go well.

Probably need some working capital for growth plans before they start giving too much back though?

Lizard

23-08-2012, 03:34 PM

I just meant that the extra revenue from the motor contracts and new product pipeline build etc will tie up money in inventory and receivables (unless they are getting paid in advance of delivery), so could restrict operating cashflow.

RRR

23-08-2012, 08:49 PM

Now, no one is embarrassed to say that they own FPA - a very good sign I think. Classic Peter Lynch turn around story.

root

10-09-2012, 09:26 AM

Takeover approach from Haier.

https://nzx.com/companies/FPA/announcements/227085

Jay

10-09-2012, 09:48 AM

Saw this, not surprising really, will the price rise today and will it go beyond what the offer price might be, will only know in hindsight!!

Lizard

10-09-2012, 09:52 AM

Will be interested to see where it opens. However, will be sorry if this goes through, as think it is unlikely to reflect potential growth opportunity at this point. Maybe interested if they offered $1.50, but that seems unlikely - at a guess, they're aiming to get it for $1 max. :cool:

Balance

10-09-2012, 09:56 AM

Well done to all those who kept the faith.

Interesting operating style of the Chinese - they take a strategic position, watch developments and then, when things are turning around - they pounce!

Now to the next takeover target for the Chinese - PGW?

Balance

10-09-2012, 10:05 AM

Finally crunched the numbers though and make some conservative forward looking adjustments.

conclusion: mr mkt is about to rerate FPA higher. I'm estimating we should be past 65c within six months and that without divies. Bullish statement indeed but the numbers speak for themselves. There's plenty going right for FPA now and in the next year - including a pickup in building and renovations in US and Nz.

In 12 months I expect 70-75 cents and divies back on stream.

70 cents to 75 cents? You ARE so WRONG!

Belgie, me ole mate, this is proving to be a big year for you.

Well done!

Jay

10-09-2012, 10:26 AM

Sitting at 1.05 as type - you might be right Sparky
Someone must have a better idea than most of us , or is it "fools" buying hoping it will on the northside of $1.00 - some maybe but not all!

Lizard

10-09-2012, 12:24 PM

Lizard, no way they will pick up F&P for a 33% premium to market value when the company is in a position to restore a dividend later in the year. I'm picking $1.20 a share. $1.50 sounds a bit pricey.

Well the market seems to be agreeing with me about the $1 price tag so far... and happily, Belg agrees with me that we shouldn't be giving it away (at least for not less than $1.50). Apart from anything else, there is the price of removing a longstanding NZ icon from NZ ownership. While I accept that it is difficult to be a global company based in NZ forever, and that NZ has made a good business out of exporting growing companies, I still don't want to part with this one cheaply.

elZorro

10-09-2012, 03:53 PM

It's a tough world out there. Here's the strategic plan for FPA, released now after preview by big shareholders (there have been better volumes and prices in the last couple of weeks).

60% of the manufacturing is done overseas, this will move to 85% even under NZ ownership. No mention about what might happen to the design teams in NZ, if Haier take the company over.

Some big projected sales of the new smartdrive motors, which FPA have carefully protected. Similar income from a new model compressor. But these applications are in the screwed-down appliance sector.

Maybe this was the reasoning behind the split into FPA and FPH, one of them was going to be sold and shipped offshore all along.

http://www.fisherpaykel.co.nz/global/investors/Investors-PDFs/Announcements/FPA%20-%20Strategic%20Plan%20Investor%20Presentation%20-%2010%20September%202012.pdf

Newman

10-09-2012, 04:41 PM

FPA has 724 million shares issued. Buying 80% of the shares at $1 each would need $580 m. I am suspecious of Haier would buy it.

quartzpurple

10-09-2012, 05:14 PM

Given the trend that USD is continuing its downward spiral, it is no surprise that CN companies around the world are buying up assets (physical or IP) to preserve its wealth.

It would be interesting to see what the independent valuer comes back & tell us something we don't already know.

macduffy

11-09-2012, 08:34 AM

winner69

11-09-2012, 08:45 AM

Brian Gaynor labels Haier bid "opportunistic". Yes, but only in the sense that they seized the opportunity to take pole position with a big shareholding cum partnership when no-one else was interested in supporting FPA.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10833160

and all those guru fund managers who only had the nominal weighting in their portfolio are also calling this 'opportunistic' .... not many were overweight FPA (not even ACC even though they are one of the bigger shareholders)

Balance

11-09-2012, 09:02 AM

Brian Gaynor labels Haier bid "opportunistic". Yes, but only in the sense that they seized the opportunity to take pole position with a big shareholding cum partnership when no-one else was interested in supporting FPA.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10833160

Be fascinating to see how many fund managers, especially Milford, were loading up on FAP shares last year when it was trading under 40 cents?

So easy to comment but put their money where their mouths are - the NZ Herald should do some basic homework by checking that fact.

macduffy

11-09-2012, 12:59 PM

Haier pump and dump .... ??? ... :)

We know that the Chinese take the long view.... but really? If so, its been a long time pumping!

:)

Balance

11-09-2012, 01:01 PM

Haier pump and dump .... ??? ... :)

Not their style, Belg-me-ole-mate.

More like DIY takeover attempt gone wrong in my view.

POSSUM THE CAT

11-09-2012, 01:39 PM

They might consider it not worth buying at the present share price and either sell or forget it. If you own take the present money and run. Without Haier FPA is a dead duck

pierre

11-09-2012, 05:20 PM

Published on the NZ Herald web site at 12.15pm today.

"Shares in Chinese home goods maker Haier, which is eyeing a takeover bid for Fisher & Paykel Appliances, are in a trading halt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange pending an important announcement from the company, according to the Bloomberg news service.

Forsyth Barr analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says the trading halt is a signal that the company might make its takeover offer for the New Zealand company today.

"It gives you a reasonable signal that we're expecting something sooner rather than later right now," Harvey-Green said."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10833278

No news yet though!

pierre

11-09-2012, 05:45 PM

From NBR:

"UPDATE 3.25pm: One of Fisher & Paykel Appliances' major shareholders has confirmed it has been in takeover talks with Chinese whiteware giant Haier.

But AMP Capital Investors, which owns 5.2% of F&P Appliances, will not say if it endorses the move."

Balance

11-09-2012, 06:26 PM

pierre

11-09-2012, 06:34 PM

Oh oh, share swap?

Doubt it. Apparently they spoke to the three largest shareholders over the weekend - that trio includes ACC as well as AMP Capital.

elZorro

12-09-2012, 07:32 AM

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/what-haier-might-pay-fp-appliances-shares-dw-p-128097

$1.20 is being offered - cash.

Bada bing - right on the money....

Similar article here. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/7656690/Haier-signals-1-20-a-share-offer-for-F-P-Appliances

Things that could disappear from here: the F&P brand, most of the manufacturing. The design team is being kept here at least at the moment, and that would be a big part of the IP in the purchase. Haier already know how to manufacture appliances. Keeping ahead of the game.. FPA was good at that, but was too short of capital perhaps, to do much about it.

biker

12-09-2012, 09:22 AM

......and Belg building a pyramid of course

The comment from a broker on the brokers picks that no value is cuurently attached to the appliances bit might have got a few interested .... quite often these brokers tips seem to do well in the first week of the year

Thanks Winner. Your heads up on the comment that the FPA share price at those levels (around 40c ) was only really accounting for the value of FPF got me interested and after some work, I bought in. Cheers.

petex3

12-09-2012, 10:32 AM

this is fun $1.17 :-)

quartzpurple

12-09-2012, 11:31 AM

it is below the offer price which implies the shareholders are likely to accept the offer...

Sad!

Balance

12-09-2012, 11:37 AM

it is below the offer price which implies the shareholders are likely to accept the offer...

Sad!

It is indeed sad but inevitable.

NZ management have little perception of how to compete in the international arena - Fletcher, Carters, Telecom, Warehouse, Air NZ etc.

What is so tragic is that they all screw up because they love DEBT.

Newman

12-09-2012, 01:14 PM

I won't be accepting the offer. 1.20 might be close to some people's valuation but nowhere near mine!

Only after the price drops back to 70 cents after the take over is closed would you realise FPA's future is not as bright as its directors and managers hoped for. Look at PGG Wrightson for a reference.

Balance

12-09-2012, 01:21 PM

Only after the price drops back to 70 cents after the take over is closed would you realise FPA's future is not as bright as its directors and managers hoped for. Look at PGG Wrightson for a reference.

Same sort of sentiment I have heard about Fletcher Building and Restaurant Brands over the years - directors etc are clueless and too optimistic.

Always darkest before dawn etc etc.

Difference here is that FAP is now into the early morning and the sun has risen (again).

FPA with Haier is a great combination so I am with Belgie. But Belgie, sell first at $1.20 and buy back at under $1.00 in 6 months time.

Xerof

12-09-2012, 02:05 PM

Early days in this takeover...so too early to suggest its a good offer or not

I remember gobbling up Transrail shares in the mid/ high 30 cents range when one of the big funds/banks dumped, to happily sell a few months later to Toll at $1.10. They didn't get to compulsorily acquire the last stragglers, and the price continued on to mid $3.00 level. Left a slightly sour taste, despite being a quick multi-bagger, to be honest, and I rued my impulsiveness.

All I am saying is wait and see what develops, as it ain't over until it's over

macduffy

12-09-2012, 02:09 PM

FPA with Haier is a great combination so I am with Belgie. But Belgie, sell first at $1.20 and buy back at under $1.00 in 6 months time.

I'd agree with that. The risk though is that only the firm holders are left after the offer closes and the SP doesn't drop back. A risk worth taking though and I'm therefore likely to accept the $1.20.

root

12-09-2012, 02:48 PM

macduffy

12-09-2012, 04:19 PM

A lot of this new found value is locked in, but there may also be other interested parties.

Will Whirlpool sit idly by while Haier swallow whole a business that is manufacturing smart drive motors for them?

Perhaps, but with Haier holding 20% and Allan Gray's holding committed, it may be too late to stop Haier getting to its 50% target and control of the company. But here's hoping!

:)

Lizard

12-09-2012, 04:49 PM

Historically, I have always found it worth holding even when a major shareholder gets past a 50% threshold. Guess it depends how dirty they want to play after that though. And maybe tactics have got dirtier than in the days of DB Group or later on with MET (given that I was fortunate to sell before it fell back far from its highs).

macduffy

12-09-2012, 05:54 PM

Yes, and its usually been a better than even bet to buy into a takeover situation for the chance of a competing bid or an enhanced offer. A little different though when the bidder already has a pretty strong position, as Haier does here. Of course we won't know how keen they will be to get eventual 100% ownership. They will reportedly go ahead with 50% and it may be that for political reasons they will settle for something in excess of that. May or may not mean much but Chinese interests have been happy with less than 100% in several Australian resource companies - but with 50%+ and effective control.