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Phaedrus
04-10-2004, 06:58 AM
FPA was in an extended trading range for well over a year, before breaking above previous resistance in May 2003. It continued on with a strong uptrend which lasted about 18 months, giving a clear trendline-break Sell signal on 17/8/04. The trailing stop was also hit and a 120 day exponential moving average was breached the following day. Since then, this stock has continued to make lower highs, though it appears to have found some support at just above $4.00. The preponderance of high volume down-days (red bars, circled) show that this stock is coming under fairly strong selling pressure. The falling highs show that sellers are becoming more keen - they are prepared to accept lower prices to exit this stock. The support at around $4.04 is provided by a pool of buyers who consider FPA to be good value at that price - they are providing a "floor" of support. Now, we don't know which just yet, but one of these groups will overpower the other. Either the buyers will be overpowered by increasing selling pressure, leading to a break of the support at $4.04, or the sellers will be taken out by a wave of keen buyers willing to pay a little more to fill their buy orders.
This formation is a descending triangle (marked in pale blue). Statistically, it is more likely to break down rather than up, but this pattern has a relatively high failure rate (45%) so has no useful predictive value. The thing here is to wait for the breakout. A break below the support would be bearish (with a high probability of further weakness). A break above the upper line of the triangle would give a more positive prognosis.
It is "wait and see" time for FPA.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/FPA001.gif

airedale
04-10-2004, 07:28 AM
Welcome back,Phaedrus. Trust that you had a good break. Your comments are always well written and timely. I had been watching FPA for some time. I will keep my telescope on it.

Stock Man
04-10-2004, 08:42 AM
Phaedrus, correct me if wrong re descending triangle drawn: the fact that it has almost reached the apex means that in this instance it (almost) has fallen into the 45% group (failed), and FPA may probably just form a trading range. Triangles should breakout 2/3 to 3/4 of the way into the formation......so.....about now!

Phaedrus
04-10-2004, 09:09 AM
SM,
Right - the average breakout distance for this formation is at 70% of the distance to the apex. About now. Maybe I should have said "This is make or break time for FPA" rather than "wait and see time"!
I would not want to make too much of any descending triangle formation though. As Tom Bulkowski, author of the 'Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns' says :- "A 45% failure rate is shameful, but that is what descending triangles have".
Whichever way it goes, FPA has been looking weak for over 3 weeks now, and the exit signalled by the trendline break is looking better all the time.

Risk
04-10-2004, 09:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

... the exit signalled by the trendline break is looking better all the time.


WB Phaedrus.

Im a bit confused what you mean by the above quote.
the exit is looking better than what?

(or do you mean that it wasnt a false break downwards...but that seems pretty obvious since all three signals have already confirmed this)

Phaedrus
05-10-2004, 05:41 AM
It is really only subsequent price action that shows the "worth" of any particular signal. If FPA continued the current downtrend all the way back down to $2.70, the trendline break sell signal shown here would be seen as very useful indeed. If, after triggering a sell signal, a stock immediately reverses and resumes its uptrend, I would view the signal as a bum steer and would perhaps look to reducing the sensitivity of the indicators I was using for that stock in an attempt to avoid the same thing happening again.
The further FPA drops, the better an exit at the trendline break looks.

Stock Man
05-10-2004, 07:19 AM
Fair Point Phaedrus. And FPA currently is a very interesting case study. It has broken all 3 signals, 2 of which are fairly lenient imo; the 7x atr and the 120 period MA.

As you have mentioned there is a minor descending triangle formed....the validity of which is unsure.....however, when I look at some other indicators e.g. RSI (upto 40period RSI) on the daily I get some interesting divergences. Of course this doesn't really matter, what really matters is price action, which you have already covered with the bulls vs bears supp/res scenario. All this brings me back to your original comment "it's wait and see time".:)

kittydashwood
05-10-2004, 10:18 AM
Plenty of buyers lurking in the shadows. Break upward coming IMO

coge
05-10-2004, 10:36 AM
KDW I think you have summed up, however it may continue to range sideways(ish)until the half yearly,(Early November).

Interesting time.

nelehdine
11-10-2004, 11:04 AM
Looked a bit sick late last week when it traded down to 403. A very healthy move this morning in a generally sideways overall market.

FPA +9 at 412

Disc: Hold FPA

coge
11-10-2004, 11:10 AM
The key thing here, as I see it, is they have purchased manufacturing capability in the US.

Another well timed announcement!

nelehdine
11-10-2004, 11:31 AM
Excellent buying for FPA ... great time to be buying cheap US assets with our lovely strong Kiwi dollars !!

coge
11-10-2004, 11:54 AM
http://www.dcsappliances.com/index_flash.php

Wonder how their balance sheet looks.

Is this the breakout Phaedrus?

nelehdine
11-10-2004, 07:02 PM
Good solid close for FPA at 417. Looks to be a really good purchase, hopefully they got/or get a good rate on the FX conversion ( 68c !! ). This stock has been overlooked for quite a few months now ... the sales figures for their existing US business released with this announcement looked extremely healthy. Stock appears to have resisted the temptation to sell-off below $4 and would now appear to be back on the radar of medium/longterm investors thanks to this news.

A really good stock to hold IMHO and excellent buying at current prices.

Disc: Hold 2750 FPA ( bgt at 405 a few weeks ago )

Phaedrus
11-10-2004, 07:56 PM
Yes, coge, today was the breakout - nice and clear eh? But then you already knew that didn't you!

Othello
11-10-2004, 09:30 PM
Phaedrus I have my doubts as to this being a break out on the upside with it still being in a $4.00 -$4.25 range.Because of the break of the upward trend aound 16/8/04. i think that 4.25 needed to be broken. Its interesting looking at the volume in that most of it was sold of in a very narrow range from around 4.25-4.00, so yes this could be accumulation taking place, Interesting also following on from yr disscusion on H/S pattern this had a double top before its decline. Should this turn out to be a reversal(doubt) then it has a lot of work to do to break $5 and reestablish its up trend. My 2 cents worth on this share ( and i hope i am wrong since i like it )is that it will rise to about 4.50-4.75 then fall back down thereby completeing a H/S pattern . Thought i would throw that in for some fun .
Othello

Phaedrus
12-10-2004, 12:49 PM
Othello,
I assumed that Coge was referring solely to the descending triangle.
I pretty much agree with everything in your post. All fair comment.

coge
03-12-2004, 10:31 AM
FPA have now breached the 100 day M/A on good volume. The main index breaking 3000, can only herald good market spirit. I think FPA has some catching up to do.

Bet there are plenty of Xmas bonuses (worldwide) being spent on the products too.[8D]

coge
06-12-2004, 03:06 PM
Another good day,up to $4.43 so far on strong demand.[^]

Where have all the FPA people gone?[:0]

boring
06-12-2004, 03:40 PM
I purchased FPA at $4.04 with the proceeds from my forced sale of PWC (a travesty that I'm still pissed off about). I was looking for a reasonably priced blue-chip that had demonstrated some recent price weakness to replace PWC as a long-term investment.

I must admit, didn't really do too much analysis on this company, assumed the market had priced it relatively efficiently. Figured the price weakness was due to concerns over the recent strong $NZD, which should less of a concern when investing for 5 - 10 years.

Nice to see a price increase recently, always makes you feel more confortable when the share price appreciates quickly past your buy in price.

nelehdine
06-12-2004, 03:49 PM
Sitting here smuggly Coge, share looks good .. divi cheque arriving soon as well ( 9cps ). FPA is a classic "have and hold" stock !!

Disc: Recent buyer of FPA at 405

06-12-2004, 04:16 PM
Nel' what prompted the buy @ $4.05 - apart from FA?

Phaedrus
06-12-2004, 05:37 PM
Updated chart. Note how the moving average buy/sell signals lag behind the trendline break signals, but nevertheless still provide reasonably timely entries and exits.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FPA001A.gif

Sky Tower
06-12-2004, 06:10 PM
Phaedrus
Certainly FPA @ 3.96 looked very cheap. At these levels $4.48 do you see futher upside in the stock? (given the high level of the NZD). Do you see FPA heading closer to the 120 day exponential moving average line ?

Phaedrus
06-12-2004, 06:52 PM
D,
At these levels do you see further upside in the stock?
Well, FPA is currently in an uptrend, so yes. I have no expectations though and will hold only as long as the uptrend continues.

Do you see FPA heading closer to the 120 day exponential moving average?
In the short term, no (it is currently accelerating away from it). In the longer term, yes, of course it will move closer and it is certain to eventually break below this moving average. No-one can tell you when this will happen, but it would not be unreasonable to take this as a Sell signal. Certainly I would not expect to be holding any FPA after such a cross.

Sky Tower
24-12-2004, 05:57 PM
Uncle Phaedrus
Can we have an update on this chart.
At $4.24 down from about $4.48 FPA is starting to look cheap again, IMHO.

Phaedrus
02-02-2005, 05:12 PM
Chart update.
FPA's uptrend was over long before todays plunge. Anyone trading trendline breaks would have been out of this stock since late last year. Those trading any of the other trend indicators already plotted would have been out also. Any follower of even the most rudimentary TA would not have been holding this stock at this time.

Take a look at the On Balance Volume plot at the top of the chart. This had been more or less level since around August 2002, but began steadily falling last August, giving a trendline break last September and it has been falling ever since. Translation :- The smart money began selling out of FPA last August. It is interesting to note that this distribution began almost exactly at the time of the trendline break Sell signal, though I do not claim that these 2 events are necessarily related.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/FPAf001.gif

kittydashwood
03-02-2005, 02:40 AM
OBV peaks are great indicators of a pivot in SP. Trying to get back into a falling stock is a good way to lose money despite the quality of the company or the product. Just look at CAV. Will the slide stop with the old resistance levels of 2.60-2.70?

port hills
05-04-2005, 07:31 AM
Yes, I'd love to see an updated chat here Phaedrus, along with your technical critique of it. Thanks heaps, :) :)

Phaedrus
06-04-2005, 02:13 PM
Porthills,
The updated FPA chart below shows no "Buy" signals yet. (I presume that is what you are looking for!) FPA is still in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs. It has not yet been possible to plot a confirmed trendline and price action has been such that the 2 moving averages that monitored the uptrend so well have been left far behind. Stay out until there is a clear change in market sentiment towards this stock.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/FPA46001.gif

port hills
06-04-2005, 04:29 PM
Thanks Paedrus, I wont rush in but will keep watching, it seems as though the bears are losing power but you're right I should wait for a bit more than that. Cheers:)

port hills
07-04-2005, 03:28 PM
And the very next day we hit a new 52 week low.
Cheers Phaedrus :D

winner69
07-04-2005, 06:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by port hills

And the very next day we hit a new 52 week low.
Cheers Phaedrus :D


Low of 290 almost a 2 year low

Phaedrus
21-11-2005, 03:41 PM
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/FPA1121001.gif

coge
21-11-2005, 08:27 PM
I'm not sure who, or what, is driving the uptrend.
The fundamentals don't seem to be worthy of it.
The analyst & brokers presentation in the aftermath of the half yearly, makes it look like some kind of pre-xmas pump is going on.

coge
22-11-2005, 07:08 PM
In fact, if you look at Phaedrus' chart, & at page one of this thread you can see last years pre-xmas expose.

Lizard
28-11-2005, 04:36 PM
So, if this was a technical "buy" the other day, is it now (at $3.30) a technical bargain or is it only a buy if it heads back above $3.60 to make a "higher high" or will it become a quick sell if it drops to $3.15...

I'm confused...:(

Snow Leopard
28-11-2005, 06:00 PM
I guess if it goes below $3.14, the lowest low of the (previous) downtrend, then the downtrend is back on but with a more gentle slope.
If it turns around before then the current month old uptrend is still on.
Depending upon what happens you get to redraw the chart to show, with hindsight, what you should have done.

regards

Paper Tiger

Snow Leopard
28-11-2005, 06:05 PM
PS More shares changed hands on the way up to the latest top then on the equivalent cents drop down.
TA wise this is probably a good thing

Lizard
28-11-2005, 06:07 PM
Wow - so I should have bought it at $3.50 and sell it if it falls below $3.14? This could be the quickest way yet I've found to lose money.....;)

This kind of investing maybe does not suit those of us who carry a permanent jinx?

Snow Leopard
28-11-2005, 06:14 PM
Well we could now wander off in to exit strategies, and indeed entry strategies but given you use of the permanent jinx smily [;)] I feel that would be mocking the afflicted.

I employ a part-time cheetah myself. [}:)]

Lizard
28-11-2005, 06:17 PM
LOL. Of course those of us with a pet jinx prefer "turn-arounds" and "recovery stocks".....

Phaedrus
28-11-2005, 08:33 PM
To make money trading the "medium-term" uptrends of a stock that is in a "longterm" downtrend, you have to be skilful, lucky, or both. I don't recommend it. FPA has been in a "longterm" downtrend since 2/2/05.

Anyone that acted on the most recent buy signal is, at the moment, in a losing trade. Since it is common for traders to set their stops just below a recent support level, I would think it unlikely that many stop-losses have been hit as yet - if any. To make the latest Buy signal "right" FPA would need to rise above the recent high of $3.56. To make the latest Buy signal "wrong" the previous low of $3.14 would need to be taken out. Until one or the other of these occur, the success or otherwise of this signal is uncertain.

Is FPA a buy now? No. The reason for the recent buy signal (a break above the trendline) no longer exists.

Lizard
01-12-2005, 09:43 PM
Was interesting watching this the last few days. Bounced off $3.15 one day and actually looked to be fairly well supported at $3.20+. Had better sharpen up my FA pencil and decide what it's actually worth...

Lizard
27-01-2006, 10:24 AM
I hope Phaedrus won't mind if I add some FA to his chart thread.

I have valued FPA at $3.72. This does not make it exceptionally cheap, but is worth noting, as in the past, FPA has usually traded at least 20% above my valuation. FPA has suffered from declining margins which have dented profits over the last two years. However, at the same time as profits have declined, sales revenues have continued to expand. FPA have been a solid company over a long period. Their expansion into North America seems to have gone well. It seems to me that there is a reasonable chance they will either a) continue to expand their sales at current margins or b) recover historic margins on current sales or c) possibly both.

I have purchased a few below $3.50. My aim is for a three-year investment time-frame, with gains averaging 25% p.a. In the meantime, April should see them report a much reduced profit. I hope that management will then signal an expectation of profit recovery. However, until such time as they do so, the possibility remains that the shares will fall further before they recover. In fact, given my record for buying too early, it should probably be assumed that they will...:)

Lizard
09-02-2006, 08:59 AM
And the Lizard jinx swings into action, with another profit downgrade...

Still, the forecast of $60-$63m NPAT looks fine by me, because for some reason I was working on $54m... nevermind, I guess the market won't like it.

Lizard
10-02-2006, 10:32 AM
Wow, expected more of a slap-down than that. I'll take the (lack of) response to the profit downgrade as a cue on sentiment. Might be going to confirm Phaedrus' buy signal shortly?

Lizard
10-02-2006, 11:17 AM
That was quick...just hit $3.65...

coge
10-02-2006, 05:13 PM
Yes, Lizard. Goodness gracious me.

Is it the brokers, or is there meat in the sausage this time?

Lizard
10-02-2006, 05:22 PM
Probably analysts all re-locating their yield clients out of SKX, huh? Expect I'll get a note from them tomorrow telling me to buy FPA...?!?

coge
10-02-2006, 05:33 PM
Mmmmmm... My thoughts exactly. Better warn my Dad. Love to be proven wrong of course.

coge
27-02-2006, 01:18 PM
Gosh. Shades of former glory here? Have you sold Lizard?

Lizard
27-02-2006, 01:27 PM
I'm a long termer, coge. Hoping for a 3 year minimum timeframe as per my post 27 Jan. Happy with it so far, but early days for me.

coge
27-02-2006, 01:43 PM
I'm guessing Phaedrus might have reclassified FPA as a buy. If you're out there P?

Phaedrus
27-02-2006, 02:11 PM
No re-classification Coge.

Buy signal posted 21/11/05 on page 2 of this thread.

Snow Leopard
26-05-2006, 01:32 PM
Revenue up.
profit down, but above guidance
and promise of a better year ahead.

Forward P/E about 15 (eps 28c and SP $4.20) a gross dividend yield of
6.4% assuming 9c + 9c next year.

Looks OK to me, hold none but will keep an eye on it for a while.

Lizard
26-05-2006, 01:54 PM
I liked it PT - and outlook commentary seems good. I think most analysts will be more comfortable with it - maybe some slight upgrades or more likely they choose to let it sit as a hold/accumulate until they have more proof they can deliver on the substantial 2007 targets. My conservative valuation is now $4.03 - was tempted to sell above $4.50, but am sticking with my original plan for now.

Snow Leopard
26-05-2006, 02:25 PM
Hi Liz

you seem to have this one sussed. I can see you achieving your 25% for your first year on this one. They look to be doing the right stuff to make money out of the US, by moving production to the States.
But, an idle thought, one wonders whether that will be good for their other markets over the medium and long term?

Snow Leopard
15-06-2006, 08:19 AM
Fisher & Paykel Appliances buys new cooker (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FPA&E=NZSE&N=132682)
Fisher & Paykel Appliances wants your money to pay for it (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FPA&E=NZSE&N=132683)

and a trading halt.

bushbasher
15-06-2006, 08:42 AM
Seems like a pretty good strategy to grow the European business, one of FPA's weaker markets. Have used Elba appliances before and no complaints.

Where am I going to raise all this new cash, what with FPA and PVO doing SPP's? Interesting to see what the institutional book pricing will be. Probably not a huge discount to previous close.

zac
15-06-2006, 08:55 AM
FPA appears to be buying the De'Longhi brand.
De'Longhi products are low end low quality appliances; international reviews and local experience shows them to be inferior (and unreliable). I am surprised FPA has chosen to be associated with the brand. Don't know about Elba.

bushbasher
15-06-2006, 09:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by zac

FPA appears to be buying the De'Longhi brand.
De'Longhi products are low end low quality appliances; international reviews and local experience shows them to be inferior (and unreliable). I am surprised FPA has chosen to be associated with the brand. Don't know about Elba.

I agree De'Longhi didn't have great rep, but I think they are just buying the Elba unit. From my London years I remember they had a pretty big presence there, particularly in stoves and cookware.

I suspect F&P are buying in for the distribution channels.

Lizard
15-06-2006, 09:52 AM
The numbers look reasonable if they achieve them. Raising $65m in new equity is not terribly dilutive - 5.5% of market cap and they look to increase net profit by $11.4m by 2009 - close to 15% of this years forecast NPAT.

Increased my conservative valuation to $4.17. Trading at a 20% premium to that valuation is quite likely for this share at some stage in the next 12 months based on historical comparisons.

bushbasher
15-06-2006, 01:54 PM
Another boost for FAP in my eyes today. Found out the CEO of my company who is remodelling his house is installing F&P appliances. Didn't know it was a NZ company until I told him. Said he liked the DishDrawer concept.

zac
15-06-2006, 02:16 PM
Is he Jewish? They particularly appreciate the ability to separate cooking and eating items.

bushbasher
15-06-2006, 02:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by zac

Is he Jewish? They particularly appreciate the ability to separate cooking and eating items.
No definitely not Jewish, but does appreciate quality. You should see his house!

Lizard
16-06-2006, 08:31 AM
Bookbuild price of $4.60.:)

Not bad considering the bookbuild range mentioned in yesterdays presentation was $4.05 - $4.50.

rmbbrave
21-06-2006, 08:43 AM
F&P steps up in Europe
21 June 2006

By BRUCE MCKAY
Plans for world domination by Fisher & Paykel Appliances took another step forward last week with news that the company had bought Italian cookware manufacturer Elba for NZ$158 million.


The acquisition gives F&P Appliances a good foothold in the European market, with Elba expected to make up 10 per cent of the company's sales. By acquiring some capacity and market share in Europe, the company should be in a position to expand faster than it has done in the United States.

F&P Appliances began selling its Dish Drawer dishwashers in 1998 via a few high-end dealers. It has taken eight years for the market to recognise, and be prepared to pay for, the growth opportunities in the US. F&P Appliances is busy building new manufacturing facilities in Ohio to help with the growth in America.

Maybe the company has learnt something or maybe there are more opportunities in Europe, but the strategy appears to be the other way around. Buy your way into the market and grow from there . . . possibly much faster than the US experience shows.

The European market is different from the Australasian and US markets. The company has struggled to sell more than a few thousand appliances each year in Europe and Britain.

Europeans – including the British – laugh at the idea of top-loading washing machines, though their kitchens look similar to ours. In acquiring Elba, F&P Appliances has acquired the option to learn about the European market and how it works.

You could argue that part of the purchase price includes this "fee" for learning about the market. The acquisition also gives F&P Appliances direct access to dealers and retailers of products, an invaluable source of information from hands-on operators.

This will no doubt become useful when the company decides to launch its whiteware products into Europe.

The Elba factory turns out about 390,000 units a year, but has capacity for 600,000. The obvious use for this spare capacity is to build F&P Appliances products. Whether this happens in the short term remains to be seen, especially given the differences in demand for products in Europe compared with F&P Appliances' other markets.

Importantly, the company is leaving the existing Elba management in place and is not trying to do too much to change strategy in the short term. This is a long-term investment, Elba is profitable, and there is plenty of room for expansion.

The purchase price has been funded by a placement to institutions and existing shareholders and by increasing debt. The institutional placement was done at a slight premium to the share price, showing that institutional investors have a great appetite for the stock and its story.

Small investors have been busy driving the share price up as well. But on a two-year view the share price is just about where it was two years ago, so a buyer then would only just be starting to break even. However, a buyer of the stock at the beginning of this year would be very happy with the returns to date.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe point is that during the past two years the company has faced having to downgrade its forecasts, as well as survive high oil and steel prices and the high New Zealand dollar.

F&P Appliances has rapidly diversified its revenue base, however. Including the Elba revenues, just 20 per cent of revenue will come from New Zealand and 31 per cent from Australia. The US will supply 34 per cent, Europe 10 per cent and the rest of the world 5 per cent.

Fact is, the New Zealand economy doesn't matter that much to F&P Appliances any more.

bushbasher
21-06-2006, 09:00 AM
quote:Fact is, the New Zealand economy doesn't matter that much to F&P Appliances any more.
True enough, but still exposed to level of kiwi dollar.

Lizard
29-06-2006, 11:52 AM
Just looking at the SPP. Looking for $10m from 14,500+ shareholders. Could be many more, as I think custodians are listed as 1 shareholder, but are entitled to make application on behalf of each beneficial owner. So only need around $690 per shareholder - explains the discount of only 2.5% being offered!

Hardly seems worth tying up the whole $5,000 by applying for the lot... Though will not know before time whether they scale back in proportion to application size or just allot a minimum of (say) $1000 worth to all applicants.

Nikao
30-06-2006, 12:34 PM
Seems to me $4.60 or the 2.5% discount are both too expensive. If you wanted more, surely you would have chucked your $5000 in when they dropped back to $4.10-4.30 a month or so back, you could have got the div too. In saying that I think the dollar is still going to drop so even $4.60 might look cheap this time next year.

Lizard
31-07-2006, 08:50 AM
Not surprisingly, given the number of shareholders, the issue appears to have been more than 250% subscribed against the $10m sought. More surprisingly, they are going to issue $20m shares, so scaling looks to be only 80%. Issue price $4.53 (Friday closing price of $4.70 - disc of 3.8%.).

Lizard
19-08-2006, 03:56 PM
In Phaedrus' absence, I should probably point out that FPA broke the medium term uptrend a wee while back... I have been a bit indecisive on this one - trying to decide whether to follow the TA or my original 3 yr plan... last week, my indecisiveness cost me a significant part of my profits. (Indecisiveness not helped by my wishing to wait and see how many shares I had received through the SPP).

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-8/1204598/fpa-chart2-aug06.gif

winner69
21-08-2006, 07:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

In Phaedrus' absence, I should probably point out that FPA broke the medium term uptrend a wee while back...


.... and broken a few more long term uptrends since

Price back to near where it was 3 years ago .... which supports my past views that FPA has often been too richly valued.

Never been a long term hold but a couple of good trades along the way

Will wait for a while before contemplating another go .... current environment not the time to be in a stock like FPA

winner69
22-08-2006, 10:23 AM
Taking a hammering today as well .... watching with interest .... sometime a good trade coming up

gamerice
22-08-2006, 10:56 AM
With the current s/p of 3.65, and annual EPS of 29c (if i recall correctly from the Annual result report) giving a forward PE of 12.6.

Which is reasonable, but nothing that cries a buy.
On my watch-list till it trends down to the 3.00 - 3.20 range~

winner69
28-08-2006, 06:52 PM
Feature story with comments like 'Fisher & Paykel Appliances chairman Gary Paykel says the whiteware manufacturer is battling its toughest trading conditions since the 1973-74 oil shock. ' certainly doesn't help the shareprice

Another 3% of the price today ..... now close to 30% down from a recent high less than 2 months ago

Looking at the chart 320 looks a distinct probability and even 260 doesn't look improbable

Not surprising really as FPA margins and performance have been under pressure for s few years now ... the finance arm is the reason for some repectablity to current results

Won't be trying to pick the bottom of this one ... like a good dishwasher will wait for this cycle to end

Flying Goat
28-08-2006, 07:02 PM
quote:

Won't be trying to pick the bottom of this one ... like a good dishwasher will wait for this cycle to end



buttabing....!!!

rmbbrave
29-08-2006, 09:20 AM
Tough times for F&P Appliances
28 August 2006
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Fisher & Paykel Appliances chairman Gary Paykel says the whiteware manufacturer is battling its toughest trading conditions since the 1973-74 oil shock.


F&P is facing high prices for compressors, copper, steel, plastics and freight. The company is opening a procurement office in China as it seeks cheaper components, is raising prices and undertaking a structural review with job cuts possible.

The United States, F&P's biggest market by revenue, is also softening.

Mr Paykel said it was a long time since conditions had been so severe. "That goes back to (19)73-74, the first oil shock. I was heading up purchasing and procurement for the company at that time. We couldn't buy an electric motor or compressor to save ourselves."

It was not as bad now but prices of resource minerals such as copper had soared, virtually doubling since March. F&P has a 30-year relationship with Japanese firm Matsu****a, which supplies compressors. Mr Paykel said Matsu****a was considering breaking a contract, which was unheard of. "They've said if you don't pay more, we're not going to supply you. I know those people well, and in all my years here, I've never heard them say that."

At last week's annual meeting, F&P managing director John Bongard said interim profit would fall below last year's $26.2 million. Annual profit was likely to be toward the bottom of the $75 million to $80 million guidance given in March.

The Auckland-based company's shares fell 21 cents last Monday and a further 10c on Tuesday. But despite market concern, Mr Paykel said F&P's guidance was broadly unchanged.

AdvertisementAdvertisement"We're talking $5 million over $75 million, we're talking maybe (profit) down about 6 per cent.

"Did we say we were going to have less cashflows? No we didn't."

The US market was slowing generally rather than just slowing for F&P.

In the March year, F&P's US revenue rose 58 per cent to $413 million out of group revenue of $1.2 billion.

"I'm watching how John (Bongard) and his team are reacting to this and I've got nothing but admiration for them. From a governance and shareholders' point of view they're doing a superb job in very, very difficult circumstances," Mr Paykel said.

Though F&P was battling head winds, the cyclical nature of the industry would eventually change with the wind swinging around behind the company, Mr Paykel said.

He defended recent share sales by Mr Bongard and chief financial officer Mark Richardson. The two exercised some options and sold shares in June. Mr Bongard sold 173,335 at $4.55, booking a profit of $374,747. Mr Richardson sold 66,670 at $4.52, reaping $147,607.

The sales came just days after F&P revealed the $158 million acquisition of Italian cookware group, Elba on June 15. It raised $55 million through an over-subscribed share placement to institutional investors to help fund that deal on June 16 and $20 million in a strongly sought after share sale to retail investors during July.

Interests associated with long-standing director Lindsay Gillanders also sold 242,272 shares on August 4 and August 7 at $4.62 raising $1.12 million.

Mr Paykel said the three men, who all still hold F&P shares, had narrow windows in which to trade. They could not have sold before the Elba announcement and the deal had been a year in the making.

"John and Mark work their guts out for this company and their integrity is beyond reproach," Mr Paykel said. "I think I've got more shares than these three guys put together 10 times and I haven't sold one."

Furthermore, all three could have sold at higher prices given F&P's shares hit $4.89 on July 13, he said.

F&P shares fell 3c to $3.71 on Friday.

rmbbrave
31-08-2006, 12:10 AM
Investors are feeling gun-shy as they try to judge the consequences of Government moves to switch New Zealand to a tougher regulatory regime from the so-called light-handed system we've had for 20 years.


It's impossible to assess how harsh the new system, being enthusiastically endorsed by ambitious young activist ministers, will be.

However, many investors expect the worst, after the slump in Telecom's value and the Commerce Commission's tough stance on lines company Vector, which saw its shares drop below issue price.

Most investors have unhappy memories of the Muldoon years when virtually every business sector was subject to regulations that were often stifling or had unpredictable economic distortions.

Sentiment has been further dented by an unexpected strong upward run in the Kiwi dollar. Its rise to A84 cents was reflected in falls in stocks that are also traded across the Tasman, though some of these picked up after a minor fall in the Kiwi after Thursday's poor balance of payments figures.

These factors are creating a high degree of uncertainty among most investors, though some fund managers are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of an influx of KiwiSaver money that could help the market next year.

Many brokers report getting few orders from their usual retail or domestic clients. The principal of one firm said it hadn't had a single non-institutional order for Kiwi shares one morning last week. Orders tended to be from people selling to reinvest in the hotter, more promising Australian market.

In such an environment, investors tend to be especially harsh on companies whose financial results are either below expectations, or contain a hint of trouble in store. Those that rush to sell may be taking a short-term view.

Falling share prices enhance the appeal of many Kiwi companies as takeover or merger prospects, especially from overseas predators and private equity funds. They are likely to move on Kiwi targets should the currency come under renewed downward pressure, further lowering the cost of these companies.

The wheel will eventually turn and many of these private equity funds and related financial engineering firms will go bung, as they lack the expertise they think they possess and are paying too much for targets. In the process they are likely to wreck some good companies.

[b]Unfortunately, Fisher and Paykel Appliances could be an example. It has moderate debt, no major shareholder and innovative products. On one estimate, a private equity fund could promptly sell its highly regarded and profitable finance division for a considerable $30 million, which would help fund the takeover.

Appliances seemed harshly treated this week when it announced that this year's tax-paid profit would be at the lower end of the previous guidance of between $75 million and $80 million. Put another way, the guidance hadn't significantly changed. However, the shares promptly fell 30c to $3.80, though they picked up later. This is a far cry from the $4.60 that institutional investors competed among themselves to pay in a placement only two months ago. Many smaller shareholders later took part in another issue at about the same price.

This upset was mainly due to comments that its market in the United States, where it earns 38 per cent of its revenues, had softened, due to signs of a fall in home building and sales of existing houses. Dennis Lee, of ABN Amro, reported that the company was facing intensified competition in the US. This was affecting sales volumes and there had been no let-up in raw material prices with the price of copper doubling since March, while steel prices might also rise.

Mr Lee noted that the New Zealand market was also slowing, though the company was expected to retain its increased market share here. Australia was likely to remain subdued, and it would take time to build up its new Italian manufacturing facilities. However, he said the US situation was the biggest concern, and it was possible the slowdown in US housing could be more protracted

Lizard
24-10-2006, 09:46 AM
Phaedrus, could you update this chart please? I am wondering if a close above $3.80 would signify a new medium term uptrend?

After completely missing the chart-signalled exit, I decided to stick to my original 3 year plan and am just watching with interest. Cheers, Liz

Phaedrus
24-10-2006, 06:23 PM
Lizard, A Close above $3.85 gives a new medium-term uptrend and a breakout above previous resistance.
The OBV gave a Buy signal at $3.75 a week ago on 17/10/06, with the trendline break triggering a Buy the next day at $3.76.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FPA1024001.gif

Lizard
24-10-2006, 07:58 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. I am surprised that you rate the trend break as a "buy" signal though. Given the steepness of the down trend, surely it would have been expected to flatten out at some point before possibly continuing the fall? The break of resistance looks more optimistic to me though.

One question that I am curious about with regard to TA is how close you can get to selling/buying at the actual price marked by the trend break and how this is done in practice? With NZX shares being a little illiquid and trend breaks often occurring while a share is volatile, it would seem easy to lose 5-10% on a trade while trying to get in and out?

Phaedrus
24-10-2006, 09:02 PM
"I am surprised that you rate the trend break as a "buy" signal though"
Well, there was a confirmed trendline in place and price action broke above it. There had already been a break of the OBV trendline. If you are asking did I buy though, - no, I didn't.

"How close you can get to selling/buying at the actual price marked by the trend break"
The charted price is the Close. You can usually buy/sell at or near this.

"How this is done in practice?"
My usual technique is to place a "Market" order immediately before the Close. Often I am the Close!

"It would seem easy to lose 5-10% on a trade while trying to get in and out"
That's called slippage, and as you know it stands to be much higher with illiquid stocks. That's why it is common practice to have some sort of policy requiring that traded stocks have a certain level of liquidity. One commonly used criterion is that your trade must never exceed 10% of the days turnover.

Deev8
09-11-2006, 10:50 AM
The FPA interim results are out and look quite good with a 19.9% increase in operating profit before interest, taxation and restructuring costs for the period.

After deducting restructuring costs of $2.1 million, group profit after tax was $25.614 million, down from $26.206 million for the same period last year. The profit guidance given at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in August remains unchanged - ie the lower end of $75 to $80 million before restructuring costs and the projected profit on the sale of surplus land.

Results announcement is here:
http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=139614

Ttops
09-11-2006, 05:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by Deev8

The FPA interim results are out and look quite good with a 19.9% increase in operating profit before interest, taxation and restructuring costs for the period.

After deducting restructuring costs of $2.1 million, group profit after tax was $25.614 million, down from $26.206 million for the same period last year. The profit guidance given at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in August remains unchanged - ie the lower end of $75 to $80 million before restructuring costs and the projected profit on the sale of surplus land.

Results announcement is here:
http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=139614



Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited

Reporting Period Half Year Ended 30 September 2006
Previous Reporting Period Half Year Ended 30 September 2005

Amount (000s); Percentage Change
Revenues from ordinary activities $696,682; +22.2%
Profit (loss) from ordinary activities after tax attributable to members $25,614; -2.3%
Net profit (loss) for the period attributable to members $25,614; -2.3%
[?]

winner69
08-02-2007, 10:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by Deev8



.......The profit guidance given at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in August remains unchanged - ie the lower end of $75 to $80 million before restructuring costs and the projected profit on the sale of surplus land.



The annual earnings downgrade (almost a year to the day since last years effort) out today

So estimated profits down to $60-65M .... same as last year ......... whoops we were a bit optimistic a few months ago weren't we !!!!

Just as well they have a finance arm otherwise this is a real disaster result.

winner69
08-02-2007, 11:01 AM
Heck .... they got the H2 result wrong by 30% .... a 30% earnings downgrade

By default they expected to make at least $50M in H2 ($75M bottom end of forecast less $25M H1 result)

And now they say they will make about $35M in H2

All those problems they listed (full of woe and despondency weren't they) have cost them $15M odd

gisborne_gold
08-02-2007, 11:17 AM
And an immediate 5% drop in the stock price in reaction, and still dropping. Ouch.

ratkin
08-02-2007, 01:16 PM
Im suprised the price isnt down more than it is

winner69
08-02-2007, 01:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Im suprised the price isnt down more than it is


ratkin .... how are u these days

not really a suprise .... nz investors happy with a price earnings of about 15 ..... everything falls to about this level ....... reflects hthe low perceived risk in the equity markets these days .... like no way can u lose irrespective of the performance / valuation

FarmerGeorge
08-02-2007, 08:28 PM
In regards to future prospects of this stock/company does anyone have any opinion on the 'Luna' gas stove top? I've just been doing a bit of research and I guess they're looking to replicate the success of their dish drawer?

Underlord
08-02-2007, 08:43 PM
quote: In regards to future prospects of this stock/company does anyone have any opinion on the 'Luna' gas stove top? I've just been doing a bit of research and I guess they're looking to replicate the success of their dish drawer?

Hi Farmergeorge

Luna will go very well in Europe it is very inovative as the burner retracts into the actual top of the cooktop this is not done as far as I know by anybody else company is very excited about it:):)

Regards

UL

Steve
09-02-2007, 06:37 AM
The reasons behind the profit warning shouldn't be that unexpected to investors...

F&P stock punished after profit warning (http://www.stuff.co.nz/3955342a13.html)
Difficult trading conditions and a high New Zealand dollar have forced Fisher & Paykel to downgrade its annual profit forecast by up to 20 per cent, punishing the stock.

But the company said it expected sales and revenue to improve in the coming year, once a "perfect storm" of negative factors had passed.

Raw material costs remained predictably high, but hitting the bottom line most were disappointing sales in soft markets, and strong competition from cheap imports in New Zealand, managing director John Bongard said.

FarmerGeorge
09-02-2007, 09:28 AM
Thanks ULord - I also can't find anyone else doing this retractable stovetop thing - is there a genuine market for it though?

Underlord
09-02-2007, 09:36 AM
Hi FG
I believe so the retractable burners make for easier cleaning and for a cleaner appearance probably two of the biggest complaints from gas users. Extensiive research is done by the likes of F&P into markets and what they want as alot of R&D,capital goes into developing new products such as this


regards

UL

FarmerGeorge
09-02-2007, 11:45 AM
Good thoughts Ulord, makes a lot of sense, with the success of the Dish Drawer I'd like to see another successful innovation or two

Halebop
09-02-2007, 06:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Underlord

I believe so the retractable burners make for easier cleaning and for a cleaner appearance probably two of the biggest complaints from gas users.

I'd agree with that. I love cooking with gas. But cleaning the gas hobb? Erghhh! Only an engineer could design such diabolical appliances. Maybe more mums shoud become industrial designers?

pierre
11-02-2007, 08:42 AM
For reasons that I can't even really explain to myself I've been riding the FPA roller coaster for ages and have hung to my investment for far too long for marginal gain. I suspect I've been waiting for something positive to happen - like a takeover bid - but all that actually occurs is ongoing news about profit downgrades.

I'm now really tempted to sell, but maybe that takeover offer might be closer with the current weakening of the SP.

I know this isn't the TAB site but would anyone like to share their thoughts on the odds of T/O action for FPA in the next couple of months?

Or maybe I should just take Lloyd George's advice (below).

Underlord
11-02-2007, 09:26 AM
Hi Pierre

The biggest setback for F&P at the moment imo is the value of the Kiwi dollar and the cost of raw materials. I think if and when the dollar weakens than you will see a great improvement in FPA results, of course raw materials they are a differant matter.

They (FPA) have been surviving and maintaining 60-70milll profit now for the last 3 years or so which imo is a credit to management especially in todays export market.
With the purchace of Elba in Italy and DCS in the states they are gearing up but this also opens them up to possible takeover plays, there has been speculation out there for a long time now but no fruit.[|)][|)]

If dollar retreats FPA will improve this is a long term holding and if you are not prepered for that then you have some decisions to make.

My thoughts only

Regards

UL

winner69
11-02-2007, 09:32 AM
Pierre - good quote from Mr George and seeing you have formed a pretty strong view it is prob better to act.

FPA is a innovative and pretty good manufacturer but that doesn't necessary make it a great investment. (The chart says that after the euphoria of the F&P split into 2 divisions it has done its dash)

It is a NZ manufacturer trying to play on the world stage .... but even in good times it has pretty thin operating margin of 7-8% ... and then the manufacturing activities are supplemented by the finance arm.

Ask Macdunk about being a NZ manufacturer trying to compete on the world stage .... and the short answer would be get out.

Looking forward alll those things that FPA keep going on about that affects performance are not dhort term thnings will be better 'next quarter' .... they are pretty enduring, and not all that good for the likes of FPA

Never mind - back to your problem.

To me FPA performance is summed up on the EPS chart in their annual report ... 33 cents in 2004, 26 cents oin 2005, 24 cents in 2006 ....{i} and probably 24 cents again in 2007[/i] .... and that is after all the acquisiitions, new products, selling in the US, moving some manufacturing offshore, increased revenues etc etc ...... in the context of the comments above they need to do these things just to keep making the same amount of money.

Pierre, you obviously have mainly held waiting for the takeover ..... if it did eventuate what would you get out of it now ... maybe 20% more than current price (FPA is not cheap at the mo)

Likliehood of takeover? ... your guess is as good as mine .... but why wait in hope and not get much share price appreciation while waiting.

If you want to stay invested in a NZ manufacturer I'd say ask yourself whether it would be better to put to put your money into the like of RAK, FPH etc that have better prospects of share price appreciation ... as well as the the chance of being taken over (possibly more likely than FPA).

At least RAK and FPH gave a bit more excitment about them and have heaps more postive sentiment / momentum ... and that helps the share price a lot more than big funds having to put more money into the top 10 because they are part of an index.

Just a rave .... brief summary .... likely that FPA will go nowhere / other companies are just as likely to be taken over (is the TAB as you say) / but likes of RAK or FPH have better medium/long term prospects than FPA

Whatever mate - make a decision that you are comfotable with.

Lizard
11-02-2007, 09:40 AM
I agree with Underlord. I bought this as a long-term hold below $3.50 - initially with good results but now not so good as the NZD has continued to remain strong. It is an irritating feature of the NZX that larger companies (which usually export or import) are reduced to becoming short-term plays on forex!

I never gamble odds on a takeover, though I guess FPA seems like a classic candidate. But I would not hold for that purpose. I continue to hold on the basis that the shares were purchased as a long term investment and should eventually recover. I will probably add more when I think the price has bottomed.

If you were trading this stock, I guess you would have been out long ago. As an investor, you might be better to wait out the cycle at this point. But it will depend on your individual circumstances including the % of investment portfolio in FPA (small in my case).

Bling_Bling
12-02-2007, 07:14 AM
When I go shopping for appliances for my our new bach and i find myself buying all the other superior imports at a better price than FPA, I say to myself I may just leave FPA stock off the portfolio.

Why buy FPA shares when i dont even buy FPA appliances?

FarmerGeorge
12-02-2007, 11:55 AM
Interesting thought Bling - what makes those imports superior?

beacon
13-02-2007, 07:23 AM
Their price, and reasonable reliability

Bling_Bling
13-02-2007, 08:16 AM
quote:Originally posted by FarmerGeorge

Interesting thought Bling - what makes those imports superior?


Alot of the imports from Korea and China are very reliable and much cheaper than FPA. Good brands like Samsung.. etc which has a great history of making good products. I really dont see how FPA can compete.

duncan macgregor
13-02-2007, 12:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling


quote:Originally posted by FarmerGeorge

Interesting thought Bling - what makes those imports superior?


Alot of the imports from Korea and China are very reliable and much cheaper than FPA. Good brands like Samsung.. etc which has a great history of making good products. I really dont see how FPA can compete.
The only way FPA can compete is make the stuff where the cheap labour is. Free trade thats what we want isnt it [?][V]. Three bowls of rice a day thats what you lot are heading into.
Air gets all their maintanance work done in china, their office work done in FIJI. PGW think farming in south America is the answer its cheaper there. We might at the end of the day have a little bit of meat and dairy exports, to pay the dole, or bugger off to Australia where they are not quite so stupid. According to stuff in todays report, beef and sheep farmers are making a nil profit. My money is all invested in the mineral market in australia at least they are forced to pay a decent return in that sector. macdunk

Bling_Bling
15-02-2007, 06:10 AM
Funny now FPA have moved their production plant to the US and not Asia.

luckysexice
15-02-2007, 07:55 AM
Duncan what stock do you own for mineral market in australia

duncan macgregor
15-02-2007, 12:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by luckysexice

Duncan what stock do you own for mineral market in australia


MCR,SMM,AGM,SMY, All on the ASX. Well over 20pc up last month. macdunk

Bling_Bling
20-02-2007, 11:41 AM
The graph aint looking good for this puppy.

winner69
26-04-2007, 04:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor



The only way FPA can compete is make the stuff where the cheap labour is. macdunk


Jeez mate .... you are a guru dunc

What a call not that long ago .... must have inside info ... another tealady or was this from the top man

Sad about the 350 jobs but thats life eh

ratkin
26-04-2007, 05:57 PM
Be plenty of work at the new Sealegs factory for them

duncan macgregor
26-04-2007, 06:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor



The only way FPA can compete is make the stuff where the cheap labour is. macdunk


Jeez mate .... you are a guru dunc

What a call not that long ago .... must have inside info ... another tealady or was this from the top man

Sad about the 350 jobs but thats life eh
Thats life alright having to visit your grandkids In Australia where all the young people are heading.[V] Macdunk

Deev8
02-10-2007, 02:16 PM
Fisher & Paykel Appliances said today it has formed a strategic partnership with Turkish whiteware manufacturer, Arcelik Corporation.

The deal would increase distribution of FPA's branded appliances in Eastern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union members), and the Middle East through Arcelik's existing network.

FPA's primary markets are New Zealand, Australia and the United States, but Europe is the fastest growing of its markets with revenue up over 600 per cent last year to $98.6m.

Nevl
02-10-2007, 06:07 PM
Also Arcelik is one of WDT's biggest and longest standing customers. obviously they like Kiwi companies. This is good for FPA and if done right could be huge specially in Eastern Europe and the middle east.

upside_umop
14-10-2007, 09:01 PM
hey Phaedrus would you be so kind to post a chart of FPA.
i have been playing around with some charts and found a few indicators have ticked off.
the obv is trending up after a while of going down.
same with money flow.
and the chart itself is trending up but not yet confirmed?

but yeah, if you could post be great.

cheers

Phaedrus
15-10-2007, 09:05 AM
FPA has been tracking more or less sideways for over a year, so far. There might have been a few profitable trades in there for the very nimble, but long-term holders should generally avoid stocks like this. Strictly speaking, FPA is still in a downtrend.

As UU has noticed, the OBV is now in an uptrend and has been for some months. There is also a recent trendline-break "Buy" signal (green arrow). Such events are both interesting and positive, but neither of these were what got me back into FPA.

Look closely at the OBV. You can see that most all of the time this indicator tracks the price plot, rising when the shareprice rises, falling when the shareprice falls. This is exactly what you would expect, given that the OBV is calculated from the shareprice. What you are looking for though is where the OBV plot and the price plot diverge. When the OBV falls and the shareprice rises, this is classed as a BEARISH divergence and price action is expected to fall. When the OBV rises and the SP falls, this is classed as a BULLISH divergence and the shareprice is expected to rise. There have been only 4 divergences over the last 2 years and they are marked on the chart below. The first of these was Bearish and gave an excellent FPA Sell signal in July of last year. (Weeks ahead of the trendline break.) See how over the next year there were 2 further Bearish divergences and both of these were followed by obvious on-going weakness.

Look now at the latest divergence. See how while the price was falling, the OBV was rising - giving the first Bullish divergence in years. The break of a short-term confirmed trendline (shown in blue) gave an entry at $3.58. At this stage, I regard this as a trade to be monitored closely, rather than a long-term investment. Time will tell. I still hold a stock that I bought in 2001 as a short-term punt!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/FPA1015.gif
s.

winner69
15-10-2007, 09:25 AM
I still hold a stock that I bought in 2001 as a short-term punt!




..... and from whats in todays paper I'd say you will still holding that 'short term punt' for a few more years

Deev8
08-11-2007, 11:15 AM
Results for the Six Months Ended 30 September 2007 were released this morning.

Highlights:

Group profit up 18.7%
Revenue up in all Appliances markets (local currency)
Thailand factory construction under way
Washer - New Zealand production extended
Finance normalised Operating Profit up
Dividend maintained at 9 cents

Before one-off items, Group profit after taxation for the six months ended 30 September 2007 was 18.7 percent up on the previous corresponding period at $32.305 million. After one-off items, Group profit after taxation for the half was $29.290 million, an increase of $4.176 million (16.6 percent) on the previous corresponding period. The one-off items represented relocation costs and the profit on the sale of buildings. Taxation for the half was reduced by $2.590 million following an adjustment to the Group's deferred tax liability to reflect the reduction in the New Zealand company tax rate to 30 percent, effective 1 April 2008.

Interim Dividend 9c per share, imputation credit 2.25c per share. Payment Date 5th December 2007 .

NZX - Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited HALFYR (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=156412)

peat
11-11-2007, 11:14 PM
it also may be forming a fairly long term bullish gartly with D (the buy point) somewhere between 2.85 and 3.14
http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/2584/fpadaily11112007mediumtm9.th.jpg (http://img230.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fpadaily11112007mediumtm9.jpg)

dumbass
12-11-2007, 02:22 PM
hey peat , does arco know your posting here

be carefull they will accuse you of devil worship

maybe too much sun ??

AMR
12-01-2008, 05:48 PM
I'm seeing a breakout from a descending triangle. What do the other TA peeps see?

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/118/fpadescendingtrianglevy1.png

winner69
12-01-2008, 07:31 PM
Usually bearish that isn't it AMR

At 318 lowest since mid 2005 so sentiment obviously pretty negative at the mo.

I'm amzed that FPA has held up for so long and to soem extent I think it is because some are holding on to see what is going to happem with the finance arm.

Selling it might be good for shareholders in the short term (might be a one off benefit) but FPA is one stock I wouldn't want to be holding over the next year or so if it was entirely dependent on its manufacturing business

Only time will tell

winner69
18-01-2008, 07:38 PM
I'm seeing a breakout from a descending triangle. What do the other TA peeps see?

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/118/fpadescendingtrianglevy1.png


Did you have this as one of your shorts mate

Fallen quite a bit since you posted the chart a few days ago

AMR
18-01-2008, 11:10 PM
Unfortunately I decided to short FBU instead since I was worried about the prospect of surprise corporate activity on the FPA Finance front. Doh!

Steve
03-02-2008, 08:50 AM
Interesting to see that both Brook Asset Management & Macquarie Group have recently been increasing their holdings...

winner69
03-02-2008, 09:35 AM
Interesting to see that both Brook Asset Management & Macquarie Group have recently been increasing their holdings...

Do you think they have picked the bottom then .... and took the opportunity to get more 'cheap' ones

You note both Mac and Brook --- I never soused it out but sometimes they both own up to the same holding as Mac owns a fair chunk of Brook

Wouldn't have a clue if this is the case this time

winner69
13-02-2008, 08:22 PM
Downward pressure on the FPA shareprice seems pretty unrelenting .... 275 back to where it was 3 years ago

Indy kiwi
14-02-2008, 03:12 PM
At what point does FPA become a takeover target? Here in the US their products are viewed as very high end, and there is a fair amount of interest, esp in leading technologies like the Dish Drawer. I wonder if they could get taken over so someone can get their hands on the technology.

Te Whetu
14-02-2008, 03:46 PM
Hey,

I honestly don't see them as a takeover target in this market. Yes I'm sure they would be very attractive at current prices but the problem is a lot of the fall this year has been on very light turnover; many investors will prefer to hang onto their shares unless the takeover premium is significant.

Everyone can see that the trading conditions over the next year are not going to be ideal but holders will expect a large improvement when things turn around.

disc: do not hold

Nevl
18-02-2008, 03:39 PM
Not a bad statement today. Encouraging growth in Europe and Asia. Excellent growth in Aus. Holding its own in NZ and the US.

Will be interesting to see how the margins hold up but the new factorys should help with that in the future so we can expect a nice improvement. The steel price will not help and is the major forseeable negative in the next 12 months. Time to look at Carbon Fiber I think as an alternative. Already being done for cars and Airplanes. How much longer before mass produced carbon fiber takes over from Steel in more and more areas.

Deev8
18-02-2008, 04:55 PM
The steel price will not help and is the major forseeable negative in the next 12 months. Time to look at Carbon Fiber I think as an alternative. Already being done for cars and Airplanes. How much longer before mass produced carbon fiber takes over from Steel in more and more areas.The main reasons for the use of carbon fibre in planes and cars are strength and weight rather than the cost of steel. Carbon fibre is generally more expensive than steel by quite a margin.

Nevl
18-02-2008, 05:54 PM
Yep with present technology thats correct however Carbon Fiber is getting more and more uses every day so economies of scale will start to come into play in the next 5 to 10 years. Also Iron ore just jumped 65% today with the latest deals with Jap steel makers.

Carbon Fiber is about 5 times the price of Steel at the moment. However Steel is yesterdays technology and Carbon fiber is tomorrows. Actually NZ is pretty good with Carbon Fiber (boat Building) maybe we should spearhead the move. Anyway Still a good result for FPA

boxing_beaver
18-02-2008, 06:37 PM
having worked at FPA as a design engineer i can tell you that i wouldnt put it past them trying to use carbon fibre in say the outer shells of washing machines etc! will be watching developments regarding the possible finance division sale closely....

Deev8
19-02-2008, 11:15 AM
The steel price will not help and is the major forseeable negative in the next 12 months. Time to look at Carbon Fiber I think as an alternative. Already being done for cars and Airplanes. How much longer before mass produced carbon fiber takes over from Steel in more and more areas.


Carbon Fiber is getting more and more uses every day so economies of scale will start to come into play in the next 5 to 10 years ... Carbon Fiber is about 5 times the price of Steel at the moment. I could certainly believe that Carbon Fibre, and composite materials in general, will play a significant part in appliance manufacture over the next 5 to 10 years. I was just very doubtful that it would provide any relief from the price of steel being a major negative over the next 12 months.

Deev8
19-02-2008, 01:56 PM
Carbon fibres are very expensive materials. Pimp my washing machine.. LOLYes, that was my point
Carbon fibre is generally more expensive than steel by quite a margin (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=185685#post185685)

Bob Marley
17-04-2008, 02:40 PM
Hey mon, big news about relocating almost all manufacturing to low-cost countries mon. Apparently savings will be $50m pa mon (pre-tax) from FY11. I suppose cost savings will be in labour and freight mon. Apparently Mexicans are paid US$3.50/hour vs US$20/hour (NZ$30/hour) for Kiwis mon. They should have chosen Jamica mon cos I know my cussies would have worked there pretty cheap mon.

Impact on share price mon? Well, market says +30cents at the moment. Bob thinks it should be around +65cps mon. $50m pre-tax savings = $35m after-tax savings from FY11. The PV of $35m pa savings in perpetuity at say 13% discount rate mon, discounted a further three years to FY08 = $187m, divided by 284m shares = 65c mon.

ratkin
17-04-2008, 03:34 PM
Suprised it took them so long ,, should of moved offshore a few years ago

Dr_Who
17-04-2008, 03:56 PM
Dont know why the market is so excited. It will take at least two years to see the actual benefits come through to the bottom line. In the meantime, the US sconomy will hit them hard.

AMR
17-04-2008, 04:36 PM
I can;t see this decision helping out in the general election when Labour gets roasted by the unions for this...

Anyway the medium term downtrend was broken by today's announcement...I will have to do some more charting to find the long term trends.

COLIN
17-04-2008, 04:41 PM
I can;t see this decision helping out in the general election when Labour gets roasted by the unions for this...

Anyway the medium term downtrend was broken by today's announcement...I will have to do some more charting to find the long term trends.

I look forward to that chart, AMR. I can accept that TA wouldn't have got me back into this stock before today's announcement, but if there is a confirmed long-term uptrend emerging I want to be in!

duncan macgregor
17-04-2008, 05:45 PM
It had to be expected with this free trade with china. NZ is now officially a sheep station with the younger brighter kids having the choice of forestry fishing and farming as a career. I only hope Australia can lesson our welfare burden if not its three bowls of rice a day wages, and a seven day week. We might still have retirement homes as our best investment before long. NZ the way you wanted it now pay the price. Macdunk

Sideshow Bob
17-04-2008, 06:08 PM
I had friends who went through the plant recently, and they were not very impressed, and believed quite inefficient.

Think they have got about $1b in debt, including about $485m of short term debt, and are paying out most of the profit in divvies. Interest coverage is on the decline.

Dish draw patents about to run out - where is there big new idea??

upside_umop
17-04-2008, 06:16 PM
Dont know why the market is so excited. It will take at least two years to see the actual benefits come through to the bottom line. In the meantime, the US sconomy will hit them hard.

Saying that is like saying a company should only be valued by the cash in the bank!

Shareprice = Present Value of future cashflows....

Bob, take into account the risk of the operation, which will be the firm specific risk, not just the market risk...

I have always had an interest in the export sector of stocks..watch out when the dollar drops as this directly reflects to the bottom line. Over $1 billion in revenue...this shareprice will fly once the dollar starts to trend down, but until we see any sign of the future direction of the OCR, it will most likely be sideways.

disc: bought at average of 3.80 and sold at 3.55 with foresight of persistent NZD.

tim23
17-04-2008, 07:05 PM
Would have been a done deal way before last weeks free trade agreement announcement!

Sideshow Bob
17-04-2008, 09:00 PM
Another thing I forgot....

Apparently they are happy with under a 5% failure rate in their applicances!!! No wonder they are know for their lemons!

POSSUM THE CAT
18-04-2008, 04:58 PM
When they move are they going to reduce prices by 50% as they are not going to retain the NZ made premium for their inferior appliances. 1 sixth of the labour cost plus theloss of NZ made premium makes 50% reduction inretail hardly sufficent for people to buy their appliances. I now rate F&P apliances shares an urgent sell. Pity the poor mugs that have been buying.

AMR
18-04-2008, 10:04 PM
Incredibly tricky this chart, FPA doesn't fall smoothly. In fact I would say TA indicators do not work that well for FPA. Time to revert to classic charting with supports and resistance.
http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/7419/fpalongtermtrendly1.png

The medium term trendline was broken by that big rally yesterday and a big surge in volume breaks the OBV downtrend. A very strong buy signal, the next overhead resistance is at 330 with weaker resistance at 267. Best ask Phadreus for his thoughts, my gut feel is to buy on the coming retracement but this company has disappointed for so long...

Lizard
19-04-2008, 07:09 AM
... but this company has disappointed for so long...

There have been a couple of reasonable trades in FPA pointed out over the years of this threads existence though.

Deev8
19-04-2008, 07:51 AM
... are they going to reduce prices by 50% as they are not going to retain the NZ made premium for their inferior appliancesDo locally made inferior appliances attract a price premium?

POSSUM THE CAT
19-04-2008, 08:23 AM
Deev8 Yes! They do or F&P would sell very little. So inferior that they will not allow them to be sold in the same shop allongside the opposition products. I have a F&P stove in the house I bought needed some assistance. F&P would not even reply.Electrolux were very helpful in solving the problem with a F&P appliance.This will attract me to there products next time I am buying electrical appliances. If looking at houses and see a dishdrawer I immediatly take $2000.00 off the price This is from family experience with this very poor product.

Sideshow Bob
19-04-2008, 10:48 AM
We recently bought a fridge/freezer, and although F&P has a factory here (although not making fridge/freezers) sadly we didn't even consider then for 1 nano-second based on price and reputation.

macduffy
19-04-2008, 12:09 PM
I doubt that F&P have got this problem on their own.
We have a five year old Turboair dishwasher which can be relied on to give trouble of one type or another every few months or so.

:rolleyes:

Deev8
20-04-2008, 10:34 AM
Do locally made inferior appliances attract a price premium?


Yes! They do or F&P would sell very little ... If looking at houses and see a dishdrawer I immediatly take $2000.00 off the price This is from family experience with this very poor product.So locally made products, even if they are crap, will sell for a premium price - but it's "other people" who will pay more for them not you?

POSSUM THE CAT
20-04-2008, 02:25 PM
Deev8 yes otherwise F&P would have shut down years ago. Only F&P product we own is actually made by whirlpool in america and marketed by F&P here. Bought in Australia under $800 in australia 2006. Roughly $400 cheaper than most Straight F&P models and it is a commercial machine.Same washing machine whirpool market by F&P here at same time $1400

Indy kiwi
21-04-2008, 11:29 PM
Here in the US, F&P products are pretty high end. An example from recent personal experience. Cheap dishwasher about $300. LG dishwasher $750. F&P Dishdrawer $1300. We bought the dishdrawer. It's all about value for money.

Lizard
29-04-2008, 07:17 PM
...my gut feel is to buy on the coming retracement but this company has disappointed for so long...

In a few more cents you'll have a 50% retracement. What do you think? It's an interesting example of an OBV step as has been debated elsewhere - and this one seems to be confirmed by short term indicators at least.

From an FA point of view, it looks cheap on a DCF basis, but there's nothing in the ratios that would lead me to conclude the timing is right. Yet. Short-term trade?

Dr_Who
30-04-2008, 09:42 AM
The DCF is only cheap if the company can meet forecast. What is FPA's percentage sales revenue is in USA?

I am keeping an eye on FPA and FPH. Just concern with there exposure to the US economy.

disc: not a shareholder

AMR
30-04-2008, 01:50 PM
In a few more cents you'll have a 50% retracement. What do you think? It's an interesting example of an OBV step as has been debated elsewhere - and this one seems to be confirmed by short term indicators at least.

From an FA point of view, it looks cheap on a DCF basis, but there's nothing in the ratios that would lead me to conclude the timing is right. Yet. Short-term trade?

This is one of the stocks that gets me. The fundamentalist inside me is clashing with the technician. End result is paralysis.:(

duncan macgregor
30-04-2008, 02:04 PM
This is one of the stocks that gets me. The fundamentalist inside me is clashing with the technician. End result is paralysis.:(AMR, The fundamentals are worse than your downtrending charts. Free trade with china requires them to manufacture the products in slave labour outposts overseas. Nobody in their right mind could see a turn round in prospects for any NZ manufacturing business in the short term. Patent rights have flown out the window if you look at some of the copy cat junk flooding into the country. If they dont grow it or dig it out the ground forget it, is the fundamentals of the situation as the charts are starting to show you. Macdunk

foodee
30-04-2008, 02:30 PM
Macdunk

If they dont grow it or dig it out the ground forget it, is the fundamentals of the situation as the charts are starting to show you. Macdunk[/QUOTE]

Does this mean you're into piking and nogging?

duncan macgregor
30-04-2008, 02:41 PM
Macdunk


Does this mean you're into piking and nogging?[/QUOTE] It means that i took my investments to Australia at the end of 2006 and sitting on a 9% exchange gain on top of everthing else. Macdunk

foodee
30-04-2008, 03:16 PM
Macdunk
Apologies - it was a boring afternoon and I could not resist the 'digging.'

cheers

JMKC
30-04-2008, 04:21 PM
I agree re the fundamentals looking rubbish...don't know why you think they clash with the technicals. This stock is going down, way down.

Dr_Who
30-04-2008, 04:24 PM
Free trade with china requires them to manufacture the products in slave labour outposts overseas. Nobody in their right mind could see a turn round in prospects for any NZ manufacturing business in the short term.

What alot of crap. FPA have been planning and preparing for the move for over 3 years. A company this size cannot just pack up and go in only a few months notice. It has nothing to do with FTA with China. In all developed nations with high labour cost and high currency it is inevitable that manufacturing industries of a certain size will re-locate to countries that are more favourable. FPA will eventually be like all the other multi national firms and move around the globe to countries that benefits them. Most large scale multi nationals dont have any loyalty to any country.

upside_umop
30-04-2008, 04:42 PM
patents wont go out the window...thats why you get fined etc for bringing in copied/fake products.

i think we will still see cheaper yet with this share...although they have nice products coming through and good revenue growth. its all a just a waiting game and picking the best time with respect to a pick up in the US economy which will reflect a world pick up.

one positive is that they had top selling washer in australia for a while...dont know if they still do. australia accounts for a good portion of their revenue if i remember rightly.

macduffy
30-04-2008, 04:58 PM
As a holder of FPA I hope that they are good enough managers to take advantage of re-locating to low cost labour countries ( which I agree has been planned for some time ) and to make a good profit for shareholders.
I'm confident that they are.
It's been inevitable for a long time that large scale manufacturing doesn't have a future in New Zealand - the day it does, our standard of living will have dropped to that of today's " attractive labour " countries and I'm not prepared to contemplate that!
I'm not so confident of that.

duncan macgregor
30-04-2008, 05:46 PM
patents wont go out the window...thats why you get fined etc for bringing in copied/fake products.
Then how come my chinese beach buggy motor is a duplicate of of a honda motor made in SH*T metal with no names or numbers on it. I was told replace any parts with honda parts. Macdunk

upside_umop
30-04-2008, 06:48 PM
you could be right.
i was thinking of wrong thing. trademarks etc.
patents usually have a limited time life span however, so maybe the honda patent was out of date.

AMR
01-05-2008, 08:35 AM
Then how come my chinese beach buggy motor is a duplicate of of a honda motor made in SH*T metal with no names or numbers on it. I was told replace any parts with honda parts. Macdunk


Because you bought it off a dodgy fellow from Trade Me?

Lizard
05-05-2008, 02:24 PM
posted 29 April - In a few more cents you'll have a 50% retracement. What do you think? It's an interesting example of an OBV step as has been debated elsewhere - and this one seems to be confirmed by short term indicators at least.

From an FA point of view, it looks cheap on a DCF basis, but there's nothing in the ratios that would lead me to conclude the timing is right. Yet. Short-term trade?

$2.64 this afternoon... since it opened at $2.40 on the 30th April (morning after that post), then that's a 10% gain in 3 trading days. Good enough for a short term trade I would have thought.

Whatever the comments on FA or TA, it's worth noting that this trade could have worked out.:)

tim23
05-05-2008, 04:21 PM
Well done Lizard; isn't hindsight wonderful, did you actual make the trade?

Lizard
05-05-2008, 04:28 PM
No, I was just testing the idea on paper.

I guess, as it stands, you could say the result was helped by the market direction. But it was an interesting case to test. :cool:

AMR
07-05-2008, 11:12 AM
...my gut feel is to buy on the coming retracement...

In this case, too much reading up about FA killed the cat!:(. I didn't buy in!

Lizard
07-05-2008, 02:29 PM
Yes, I think we need to straighten ourselves out here AMR... I'm the FA; You're the TA... Remember?!?

Crikey, we're all getting so bi-analytical around here....:eek::D

AMR
13-06-2008, 10:05 PM
A triple divergence today, the price has held 210 as a floor for a while but OBV is diverging strongly. Market conditions will keep me out though.

winner69
23-06-2008, 06:09 PM
I agree re the fundamentals looking rubbish...don't know why you think they clash with the technicals. This stock is going down, way down.

Suppose you still say this JMKC .... you been correct so far ...... most on this forum would hardly believe that FPA could actually be below 200 .... but it is eh

winner69
13-02-2009, 08:04 PM
Suppose you still say this JMKC .... you been correct so far ...... most on this forum would hardly believe that FPA could actually be below 200 .... but it is eh

That post was last June - 7 months later and maybe, just maybe, FPA might go under a buck ....... suppose most on this forum would hardly believe that .... but it looks like happening

AMR
13-02-2009, 08:16 PM
Really does show the folly of holding stocks against the trend, even if a bullish pattern presents itself.

winner69
16-02-2009, 08:36 AM
Jeez that was some long winded announcement this morning

Seems like the bottom has fallen out of the appliance market worldwide, margins are screwed and our debt is ballooning out of control and we better raise some money somehow

Is that how it read ...lost concentration after paragraph 2

Now we know why the shareprice is so so cheap .... market knew all along (or at least sensed that something was up)

bull....
16-02-2009, 10:03 AM
Yep looks like they are getting into trouble with their debt position.
If sales keep declining which is entirely possible they will desparately need a capital injection.

warthog
16-02-2009, 10:07 AM
That post was last June - 7 months later and maybe, just maybe, FPA might go under a buck ....... suppose most on this forum would hardly believe that .... but it looks like happening

No more looks like.

warthog
16-02-2009, 10:10 AM
Not me. I could only explain the price against the fundementals and outlook in terms of 'patriotism'! Worth watching this one for a bottom tho ;)

Catch that falling knife Belg.

Ultimately this business will be underperforming for quite some time. It and others like it will be a drain on resources in the meantime. Try for that bottom Belg, but be prepared to lose your shirt (the hog isn't saying you will though).

ratkin
16-02-2009, 10:26 AM
Was fairly obvious the bottom would fall out of the appliance market , especially washing machines, most people get one when they buy a new house, otherwise they make do for years.

Methven and the showers/taps will be another under the cosh , also carpet companies etc

Bilo
16-02-2009, 10:33 AM
Not me. I could only explain the price against the fundementals and outlook in terms of 'patriotism'! Worth watching this one for a bottom tho ;)

I like your patriotism Belg but some lesser patriot is shorting the **** out of this one probably to save himself a few dollars. Market cap is less than PPP now - 1/10th of whats left of Tui...
The debt levels are disappointing. I might have expected some forex cover for this rather obvious risk...

macduffy
16-02-2009, 11:31 AM
The debt levels are disappointing. I might have expected some forex cover for this rather obvious risk... QUOTE.

The biggest negative with this is that the weak NZD causes debt raised in USD, Euros etc to balloon out in NZD terms and therefore breach lending covenants. The idea of raising foreign currency debt to "match" receivables in those currencies is sound as far as it goes. It just doesn't take account of the effect on the balance sheet if the NZD loses value.
I'm not sure what if any hedging strategy would counter this, short of raising all debt in NZD!

lakedaemonian
16-02-2009, 12:40 PM
Yet another canary in the coalmine :|

Dr_Who
16-02-2009, 03:35 PM
Dont know why the market is so excited. It will take at least two years to see the actual benefits come through to the bottom line. In the meantime, the US sconomy will hit them hard.




How low will FPA go?

macduffy
16-02-2009, 04:45 PM
How low will FPA go?

That depends on a number of factors including:

- Whether or not they attract a new cornerstone investor, as sought.
- What terms new capital is raised on.
- The proportion of new capital sought from shareholders.
- The time frame for all the above.
- What happens in the world while this is going on.

In short, it's anyone's guess and I won't be trying to catch this particular knife!

duncan macgregor
16-02-2009, 05:51 PM
Selling their premises to lease back is a great backward step at this stage in the cycle.
RBD did exactly that a few years ago to expand into Australia. They were then stupid enough to spend millions doing up the premises so that the land lord was in a better position to charge them more. FPA not exactly a NZ company moving to slave labour countries with their manufacturing so who cares?. Macdunk

winner69
16-02-2009, 06:13 PM
,..... will wait for the rights. Dead cat bounce tomorrow?

At least you didn't say (last) rites

winner69
16-02-2009, 06:19 PM
Hmmm. Crunching some numbers and the fall in the SP is slightly overdone methinks. Not tempted to buy however, will wait for the rights. Dead cat bounce tomorrow?

FPA marketcap now $180m odd .... FPA Finance book value about $180m

Those the numbers you are crunching Belg?

warthog
16-02-2009, 06:39 PM
Selling their premises to lease back is a great backward step at this stage in the cycle.

Sometimes the hog finds a MacDunk perspective wholly in line with the hog's as is the case on this occasion: FPA are selling low and buying high.

winner69
16-02-2009, 08:12 PM
Selling their premises to lease back is a great backward step at this stage in the cycle.
RBD did exactly that a few years ago to expand into Australia. They were then stupid enough to spend millions doing up the premises so that the land lord was in a better position to charge them more. FPA not exactly a NZ company moving to slave labour countries with their manufacturing so who cares?. Macdunk


Macdunk ... hells bells ... you and I could own part of FPA .... Sheppard calling on the Govt to bail them out ... whats the world coming too eh

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4849514a13.html

Key urged to help F&P

By JIM KAYES - BusinessDay.co.nz | Monday, 16 February 2009

Prime Minister John Key should follow through on his pledge to bail out struggling New Zealand businesses by backing iconic brand Fisher & Paykel Appliances, says New Zealand Shareholders Association chairman Bruce Sheppard.


Mr Sheppard said Fisher & Paykel was an iconic New Zealand company that had to be kept afloat.

Mr Key revealed last month treasury had done "scoping work" on companies that might need to be bailed out but did not say who had been identified.

"If we got into a situation where a New Zealand corporate could not raise money in its own name, could not receive the level of funding that was required from the banks and we deemed it to be in the best interests of the country for the Government to step in and provide those funds on a temporary basis.

"There is a limited group of corporates which would sit within that quarter," Mr Key said.

Mr Sheppard said as an iconic New Zealand company that employed New Zealanders and had considerable intellectual property in New Zealand, Fisher & Paykel fitted the bill.

Mr Key could not be reached for comment. However, he said last month that preliminary advice from Treasury on the state of the lending market was that banks were still lending money, albeit more conservatively than last year.

The advice was that the sector was working more effectively than in either the United States or Britain.

Thumpa
16-02-2009, 08:49 PM
Last 7 days sell-off with increased volumes ...... and today surprise notice of " Potential Equity Raising " .

I guess some may already know what price that would be at , and prepared accordingly.

http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/FPA-1.png

QOH
16-02-2009, 09:01 PM
[QUOTE=Thumpa;243871]Last 7 days sell-off with increased volumes ...... and today surprise notice of " Potential Equity Raising " .

I guess some may already know what price that would be at , and prepared accordingly.

Yes thought the same thing when I saw the falls of the last few days. Would be interesting to see who was selling.

upside_umop
16-02-2009, 09:24 PM
Selling their premises to lease back is a great backward step at this stage in the cycle.
RBD did exactly that a few years ago to expand into Australia. They were then stupid enough to spend millions doing up the premises so that the land lord was in a better position to charge them more. FPA not exactly a NZ company moving to slave labour countries with their manufacturing so who cares?. Macdunk

Thats why MHI has been so successful eh? Not everything is 'save up' and 'buy' these days macdunk...you've got to use the financial tools that are at your disposal.

NOTE 30 Committments

Operating Leases
The group leases all shops and in addition, various offices and warehouses under non-cancellable operating leases expiring within various periods of up to fifteen years.

AMR
16-02-2009, 09:38 PM
Is Bruce Sheppard downramping? FPA has not asked for a bailout.

AMR
16-02-2009, 10:37 PM
AMR who is that crazy girl in your Avatar and does she put out?

AA

Probably not. She died after being brutally stabbed dozens of times while showering :)

Dr_Who
17-02-2009, 06:00 AM
Is Bruce Sheppard downramping? FPA has not asked for a bailout.

Na, more like self promoting.

Dont waste nz tax payers money bailing out a firm that has moved all its operations overseas and employs foreigners. Dont make the same mistakes the Americas are making right now. If a company cannot stand on its own two feet, let it fall. It is all part of a cycle. The American govt is telling all the banks and car co. that it is all right to be reckless in the future cos the govt will always be here to bail them out. The fundamentals have not changed and the rot continues.

I dont think FPA will fall over. They just need extra cash to reduce debt in the short term. Great branding, but operational cost too high. In this market consumers will not buy luxury, high end goods.

The CEO and top level management should get a 50% pay cut, reflecting FPA's performance.

The Doctor
17-02-2009, 06:52 AM
govt bailout for sure.The free market...airlines,banks and now a washing machine manufacturer!....what next??

Seti
17-02-2009, 06:57 AM
Pretty unequivocal statement by Key this morning about backing the company. With that sort of reassurance there could be some short term trading opportunities with it. Buy orders should pile up this morning.

QOH
17-02-2009, 08:35 AM
Is $1.14 million an average salary for a CEO of a public NZ company? I guess his lifestyle won't change too much with a 7.5% salary cut.

winner69
17-02-2009, 09:08 AM
govt bailout for sure.The free market...airlines,banks and now a washing machine manufacturer!....what next??


Whats next ... bring back tarrifs to protect local manufacturers ... whoops PFA has gone global so that won't really help them

Dr_Who
17-02-2009, 10:10 AM
Exactly right. What next?

John Keys should also disclose his position in FPA. Wasting tax payers money on a company that has moved most of its operations overseas. They are starting to act like the labour party.

From his statement, I would assume he will NOT approve the sale of AIA and will NOT privatise any govt held companies in the future?

upside_umop
17-02-2009, 10:13 AM
Dr

They still employ a lot of people in NZ.

They provide the govt with large amounts of taxes.

They are an 'iconic' kiwi brand.

Let them fail? Good one...these guys have $1.4 billion dollars in revenue...thats massive.

Arbitrage
17-02-2009, 10:30 AM
While they may be an iconic brand their market position has been changing in recent years. When I renovated my kitchen 15 years ago it had to be F&P. They were good quality and reliable. My Australian connections also had the same opinion.

However in recent years, they have repositioned to try and take on the flood of cheaper and lower quality appliances coming in to NZ. Building factories in lower cost countries (using expanding debt) has been a part of this.

I believe the strategy has been a failure reflected in lower sales. When I replaced my kitchen appliances last year all the reviews pointed to better quality German products which I subsequently purchased.

If any support is forthcoming from NZ taxpayers, I would not be happy unless a serious review is made of the companies direction and management. The announcement that the CEO's earnings have dropped to a paltry million would be an interesting starting point.

POSSUM THE CAT
17-02-2009, 10:32 AM
A company so mismanaged it is a joke. Would not allow its product to be sold in the same shop as competing products so did not get the message it was producing over priced Junk. You could buy a Bosch Clothes Drier for $400.00 cheaper than a F&P drier of lesser specification. It may be tough on Jobs but in some ways the sooner they shut the doors the better. Just Compare there Fridges with LG fridges & the Whirpool washing machines they market are after taking the currency difference into consideration are 40% dearer than Australia.

Major von Tempsky
17-02-2009, 01:55 PM
This thread is titled "FPA Chart".

So, did charting indicate the big fall yesterday and if it didn't how can you anyone continue to aver that charting is useful?

Charting is just like looking in the rear vision mirror when you are travelling forward.

Stranger_Danger
17-02-2009, 01:58 PM
Major -> Um, I'm no TA guy, nor a Phaedrus groupie, but wouldn't TA have kept you the hell out of this stock, meaning you wouldn't need to have predicted the fall yesterday?

macduffy
17-02-2009, 02:02 PM
Quite so, S D.

The charts have warned me off several times over the last year or two when I've thought that FPA was a great buy.
Unfortunately, I didn't follow through and sell those I already hold!

:o

peat
17-02-2009, 03:47 PM
This thread is titled "FPA Chart".

So, did charting indicate the big fall yesterday and if it didn't how can you anyone continue to aver that charting is useful?

Charting is just like looking in the rear vision mirror when you are travelling forward.

MVT

The low of 1.06 on 20th Nov was breached with a 1.04 on 11th Feb 2009. This was your signal - you then had two days to get out.

STRAT
17-02-2009, 05:19 PM
So Government is talking bail out for F&P. Thats just great. Im not expecting any shares of course for my tax money, Im delighted be able to help F&P management keep the life style to which they are a custom just as I was when I ( we ) coughed up for the resurrection of the BNZ and AirNZ.

Ekrub
17-02-2009, 07:22 PM
Amazing the distance we've come, when Helen Clark advised
shareholders in Air New Zealand to hold on to their shares,
knowing a government bailout was in prospect to save it from
collapse, the right-wing commenatators screamed blue murder.
Share tipping, interfering with market forces, they cried. Now
the current PM suggests government help for FPA, not one little
muttering from the usual quarters. But then we know which
political party those making the most noise back then would
have been supporting. So, is a little "socialism" deemed
acceptable in the current environment, or is their righteous
indignation just taking a little while to put in to words?

shasta
17-02-2009, 07:36 PM
Amazing the distance we've come, when Helen Clark advised
shareholders in Air New Zealand to hold on to their shares,
knowing a government bailout was in prospect to save it from
collapse, the right-wing commenatators screamed blue murder.
Share tipping, interfering with market forces, they cried. Now
the current PM suggests government help for FPA, not one little
muttering from the usual quarters. But then we know which
political party those making the most noise back then would
have been supporting. So, is a little "socialism" deemed
acceptable in the current environment, or is their righteous
indignation just taking a little while to put in to words?

As one of the "right wing" posters you are clearing aiming your post at, i'm against ANY Govt involvement in bailing out companies, especially those that pay excessive remuneration to incompetents who cannot adapt to a changing market environment.

I just wish Govt's would guide there respective economy's & stay out of interferring in the markets, sets a bad precedent & the "bailout" culture does nothing good, but set the very same thing up to happen again in the next "bear market/down turn".

I've expressed many times before the fact that FPA & FPH have far too many "cheap/free" options for executives with little performance criteria.

Where's the accountability, any idiot can run a company in a bull market.

If they are worth there fat pay packets, this is the exact environment there "degrees" & MBA's prepared themselves for isn't it?

upside_umop
17-02-2009, 08:02 PM
I'm reasonably right winged, but there still is a place when markets are distorted and not running efficiently for the government to play a helping role.

FPA are still profitable meaning a tax take for the government.

FPA employ 1600 people in NZ...yes thats after they so cold blood like laid off the workers in Dunedin. (I say cold blood sarcastically, as this is a global enviroment and NZ is not a manufacturing country...keep on increasing that minimum wage and nothing will be made here)

FPA pay their staff accordingly...see what they have done with their revenue over the past 10 years.

Profitability has been dismal over the last few years because of a perfect storm:

*slowing consumer demand
*high interest rates for funding
*high NZ dollar
*extreme raw material costs

Poorly run company? Show me a company that could have kept on as much of its work force and face those kind of pressures as much as FPA has.

I didnt see too many options being issued with FPA shasta, but I agree, there have been a lot of options being issued with FPH. If only these could be valued more appropriately and be stated in the financial statements before NPAT.

Well done FPA...I will gladly kit out my house one day with their appliances. Hopefully their top end will come down in price a little more once all their manufacturing is overseas.

Contrarian
17-02-2009, 08:07 PM
Gidday

Yeah Boo Hoo Mr Paykel do you want the taxpayer to protect your wealth.

Kiwi Workers, well they were dealt to, long ago with offshorization.

Have never seen any humility in F&P.

AMR
17-02-2009, 08:26 PM
Unfortunately we are in the midst of a black swan economic meltdown - a bailout if needed will help maintain whatever confidence remains in the economy.

If this happened 2 years earlier there would not even have been a discussion about a bailout.

Contrarian
17-02-2009, 08:26 PM
Amazing the distance we've come, when Helen Clark advised
shareholders in Air New Zealand to hold on to their shares,
knowing a government bailout was in prospect to save it from
collapse, the right-wing commenatators screamed blue murder.
Share tipping, interfering with market forces, they cried. Now
the current PM suggests government help for FPA, not one little
muttering from the usual quarters. But then we know which
political party those making the most noise back then would
have been supporting. So, is a little "socialism" deemed
acceptable in the current environment, or is their righteous
indignation just taking a little while to put in to words?

Gidday
I wasn't fan of Nanny Labour, but wouldn't the mega bucks worth of sellers at low 60's yesterday be spewing today when Nanny National give a big hint that there is a floor & if those shareholders wanted back in to the "NZ" story they would have to pay about 10% more overnight.

"No comment" should have been John Keys response.

shasta
17-02-2009, 08:44 PM
Gidday

Yeah Boo Hoo Mr Paykel do you want the taxpayer to protect your wealth.

Kiwi Workers, well they were dealt to, long ago with offshorization.

Have never seen any humility in F&P.

The FPA top brass did well for themselves during the good times (incl options*) & although UU doesn't recall the past actions of FPA, i was a shareholder when they did have there snouts in the trough & remember it all too well.

* Thank God the IAS now require options to be expensed, Warren Buffett has long been of the opinion they should be!

So is this the culture we want from "professionals" running listed companies, pig out & get what you can for yourself in the good times & go hand in cap to the Govt when you f*** up?

Bit like in the US, where the heads of banks/financial institutionals arrived at there "bailout" beg meetings via private jets...

I dont want my tax dollars going to prop up some failed executives, where's the initiative to take a pay cut & share in the pain or offers of resignations?

I'd rather it went on helping out the workforce who contributed to there good times & largely missed out on the rewards, & who were cut loose.

upside_umop
17-02-2009, 09:35 PM
The FPA top brass did well for themselves during the good times (incl options*) & although UU doesn't recall the past actions of FPA, i was a shareholder when they did have there snouts in the trough & remember it all too well.

FPA definitely are not leading the options issues of listed companies. If you look at the latest interim report, you will find that no options were exercised in the 6 months ending September 2008, and only 1.1 million were issued in the period ending September 2007/March 2008...ie 1.1 million shares for the year.

Then you have to realise, the options that were issued for that year, were paid to the company (exercise price...after a quick scan of the report I did not find the exercise price.)

Then you also realise, that nobody who took up these options have sold any shares. Ie, they most likely paid over $2 per option to be exercised and are now holding a negative position. ($2 is fairy low price for then...so this is a very generous exercise price - I completely made it up the $2 figure..prob closer to $2.50, wanna snoop it out snoopy?)

A quick look at the balance sheet at time of issue:

Dr Cash $2.2 million
Cr Equity $2.2 million

Now, how many shares does $2.2 millon buy today? At 72 cents 3.05 million shares...the company could effectively do a buy back and cancel these shares at the expense of the employee share option exercisers. Less shares would be on issue than before!

See, stock options can work in the good and bad for executives. They essentially propped up the company out of their own pocket.




* Thank God the IAS now require options to be expensed, Warren Buffett has long been of the opinion they should be!

I'm not so sure on this one now. I never thought they were a requirement to be expensed....


So is this the culture we want from "professionals" running listed companies, pig out & get what you can for yourself in the good times & go hand in cap to the Govt when you f*** up?

I havent seen them sell any shares yet? $1million dollars isnt out of the ordinary, and is what is needed to keep talent. Sure some arent talented, but many are. I'd sure rather see the remuneration of CEO of a company with turn over of $1.4 billion get $1 million salary than $100,000....their heart (dreams of nice houses/boats) just wouldnt be in it otherwise. I expect to get remunerated accordingly eventually aswell.


Bit like in the US, where the heads of banks/financial institutionals arrived at there "bailout" beg meetings via private jets...

Yeah, I agree with you there...private jets are a luxury...however, Walmart has a larger fleet of planes than Air NZ, but that is necessary for a company such as them. Do you see shareholders complaining? Its whats enabled management to be so proactive and implement strategies..


I dont want my tax dollars going to prop up some failed executives, where's the initiative to take a pay cut & share in the pain or offers of resignations?

They havent failed? FPA is still a profitable business! Its a short term liquidity issue.


I'd rather it went on helping out the workforce who contributed to there good times & largely missed out on the rewards, & who were cut loose.

What the? Your saying dont help FPA out in spite because you want to see the executives fail? How about the 1600 jobs associated with FPA? Wouldn't a 12 month loan of $50 million be money well 'invested?'

I'll say it again...NZ is not a manufacturing country! Not when we are in a free market, with unprotected boarders battling against cheap labour from the likes of Thailand, Mexico, China, who multinationals have been benefiting from for umpteen years. FPA held its stance in NZ as long as it could (kept its expensive manufacturing)....unfortunately it couldnt do it forever with those factors I listed on the previous post.

Dr_Who
18-02-2009, 06:53 AM
As one of the "right wing" posters you are clearing aiming your post at, i'm against ANY Govt involvement in bailing out companies, especially those that pay excessive remuneration to incompetents who cannot adapt to a changing market environment.

I just wish Govt's would guide there respective economy's & stay out of interferring in the markets, sets a bad precedent & the "bailout" culture does nothing good, but set the very same thing up to happen again in the next "bear market/down turn".

I've expressed many times before the fact that FPA & FPH have far too many "cheap/free" options for executives with little performance criteria.

Where's the accountability, any idiot can run a company in a bull market.

If they are worth there fat pay packets, this is the exact environment there "degrees" & MBA's prepared themselves for isn't it?

Very well said Shasta.

Govt stay out of the market. FPA is not a strategic company and if it falls it will have little significance to the economy. The NZ economy cannot sustain increasing high levels of debt in bailing out corporates who are fundamentally unable to compete in the market place.

Please dont go down the route of the US and put our country into further debt that our grandchildren cannot possibly service. Learn from the Chinese and not the Americans. The Chinese was prudent in their expenditure and now has huge cash reserves in this environment to acquire cheap under valued assets, while the US and Britain are struggle to survive under a huge weight of debt.

beacon
18-02-2009, 07:13 AM
John Key should use the money where it will be most productive in the long run. Sympathy yes, bailout no. FPA chose its path earlier, and should bear the consequences like the rest of the investing public.

Worse come to worst, FPA employees will have the same help avenues open to them that are open for others being made redundant elsewhere in the country. Keep focussed John.

political Interference generally causes more damage than good. http://www.stuff.co.nz/4850384a1865.html

Major von Tempsky
18-02-2009, 08:03 AM
So, if charting had any credibilty (which it hasn't), none of you would now be holding any FPA shares, nor your friends or acquaintances, and there wouldn't have been about a 40% fall when the news came out because charting would have anticipated it.

But you are, and the price did drop about 40% so the conclusion logically follows.

duncan macgregor
18-02-2009, 08:34 AM
So, if charting had any credibilty (which it hasn't), none of you would now be holding any FPA shares, nor your friends or acquaintances, and there wouldn't have been about a 40% fall when the news came out because charting would have anticipated it.

But you are, and the price did drop about 40% so the conclusion logically follows. Sorry to inform you MVT but charting told me to get right out the market over a year ago. The know FA people [you get my drift] ridiculed me then for doing so. The people caught out in this sorry mess are not chartists but the we know best brigade with no sell system.
How much have you lost on paper Major since i told you the crash was coming?. Macdunk

Ekrub
18-02-2009, 08:52 AM
Rodney Hide has come out against a bailout by the government.
Points to him then, that's what we'd expect from ACT, a decision
no doubt reached after concluding their caucus in a telephone
box, but I'm looking forward to thumbing through the next edition
of the NBR to see what all their "unbiased" commentators have to
say, the same ones who couldn't forgive Clark and Cullen for winning
a third term, and enthusiastically picked up the ball dropped so
pathetically by the Brethren. Probably the themes will be about
changed circumstances, and it'll have to be accepted because
of necessity. If it had been Clark proposing to assist FPA, their
fulminations would be deafening.

Hoop
18-02-2009, 09:32 AM
So, if charting had any credibilty (which it hasn't), none of you would now be holding any FPA shares, nor your friends or acquaintances, and there wouldn't have been about a 40% fall when the news came out because charting would have anticipated it.

But you are, and the price did drop about 40% so the conclusion logically follows.

MVT imagine you are teaching basic investment strategies to a class of newbies. You have taught them Investment principles such as ..never average down...don't buy into downtrending stocks etc.etc.
being inexperienced pupils you haven't taught them short term investing strategies yet because that comes under advanced teachings...so...
You now put this chart (below( up on the screen and you ask these newbies to apply their limited knowledge to make a decision whether they should buy this stock after the 2006 long term trend break.

What do you think their answers would be??

Phaedrus
18-02-2009, 10:12 AM
So, did charting indicate the big fall yesterday? Of course it indicated (showed) the big fall. I presume that you really mean "was the big fall preceded by any unusual or atypical weakness in the shareprice?" Answer :- You betcha!
Japanese Candlestick charting techniques have been used for hundreds of years. A Black Marubozu is formed when a stock never climbs above its Opening price and then falls to close the day at its Low point. Sellers have carried the day and convincingly overpowered buyers. Obviously such a candlestick is Bearish. To get a string of sequential Black Marubozu such as were formed here is quite extraordinary and denotes exceptional weakness.

Monday 9th. Black Marubozu. FPA makes a new ALL-TIME Low and Re-confirms the longterm downtrend.
Tuesday 10th Black Marubozu. Another new all-time low. Higher Volume. OBV makes a new all-time low. Bearish "Falling Window"
Wednesday 11th Black Marubozu. A new all-time low. Higher Volume again. Another Bearish "Falling Window".
Thursday 12th Black Marubozu. Another all-time low. Higher Volume again. There have now been 5 sequential Black Marubozu. (This has never happened before in the history of FPA.)
Friday 13th Black Marubozu. (6 now!) Another new all-time low. Higher Volume yet again.

All this BEFORE the big drop!

MvT, you should be able to see that as early as Monday 9th Feb FPA was showing more than its usual weakness. The following days compounded and re-compounded this weakness into a unique and extraordinary series of events culminating in the big fall.


So, did charting indicate the big fall yesterday (YES!!!) and if it didn't how can you (or) anyone continue to aver that charting is useful? Charting gave unmistakable, loud, clear and unequivocal warning of extraordinary FPA weakness many days BEFORE the big fall. I (and others) continue to aver that charting is useful.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/FPA218.gif


Charting is just like looking in the rear vision mirror when you are travelling forward.
Sort of - but it also includes a LOT of looking out the side windows, to see exactly where you are and whether you are veering off the road to one side or the other. Sooner or later your automotive analogy breaks down though, MvT, because NO-ONE can see out the front windscreen, not even crusty old fundamentalists like yourself.


So, if charting had any credibilty (which it hasn't), none of you would now be holding any FPA shares, nor your friends or acquaintances, and there wouldn't have been about a 40% fall when the news came out because charting would have anticipated it. But you are, and the price did drop about 40% so the conclusion logically follows. Logic has never been your strong point, MvT. No "chartist" would have been in FPA when it was hit by the big drop. The fact that there was still a 40% drop when the news finally came out simply tells us that there are a lot of idiots out there. The fools that got caught holding FPA would have been people like yourself, staunch fundamentalists, those that don't understand charts, those that ignore market sentiment, or those that are unable to recognise a downtrend. Some people were surprised by the "sudden" big fall, but plenty were not. Who do you think was doing the selling? And why?

GTM 3442
18-02-2009, 10:22 AM
Who do you think was doing the buying? And why?

Phaedrus
18-02-2009, 10:39 AM
Who do you think was doing the buying? And why?
Fools.
Retail investors.
The ignorant.
The great unwashed.
Fundamentalists.
People that thought the market had hit its lows.
Rash people.
Impetuous people.
Impatient people.
Those that have difficulty holding cash.
Those who scoff at TA.
Those who can't recognise a downtrend.
Those following their brokers recommendation.
Those that were unaware of any forthcoming announcements.
Those averaging down.
Those adding to their losing investment.
Those trying to pick the bottom.
Those who ignore market sentiment.
Those who don't use charts.
Those looking for a "bargain".
Those buying for dividend yield.
Those that thought FPA simply couldn't go any lower.
Optimists.

winner69
18-02-2009, 10:50 AM
sadly a lot of the buying has been doen by people who invest others money .... and get paid for doing so no matter what happens (other words fund managers and the much vaunted insto)

And quite often it is because super fund monies are mandated to be invested in equities ... and those mentioned above prob thought that FPA was just as good as anywhere seeing it is Top 10 stock

Rather sad really - and many of us, yes even me, probably have a little interest in FPA through our super fund or kiwisaver investments

Dr_Who
18-02-2009, 10:56 AM
Rather sad really - and many of us, yes even me, probably have a little interest in FPA through our super fund or kiwisaver investments

You and many other NZers may end up owning FPA via Kiwisaver/superfund thanks to John Keys. Hence why I dont and will never put my money in Kiwisaver and funds management.

winner69
18-02-2009, 10:59 AM
You and many other NZers may end up owning FPA via Kiwisaver/superfund thanks to John Keys. Hence why I dont and will never put my money in Kiwisaver and funds management.

.... no mays mate ... already do

winner69
18-02-2009, 11:02 AM
Love those Black Marubozu comments Phaedrus .... ceratinly meant something

Looks like the same sort of pattern developing in NPX at the moment (except for the volume sdie) .... surely NPX cant be below 200 .... its never been that low since 1995 the paper said .... and heck its a far bigger company now ... gone global and all that sort of stuff

winner69
18-02-2009, 06:16 PM
Nope ... They are stilling predicting a 25-20 mill profit. I was tracing that number back to where and how ... and did some what-if's on currency movements ... Have you done the Altman(?) insolvency test? ... you know, the one that returns great measures like 'finacially embarrassed' ... I'd be interested in the outcome.

Using the June accounts FPA was in the 'finacially embarrased' zone last June ..... so no doubt is now even more 'finacially embarrased' ... and in more way than one eh. Score much the same as Feltex got a year before it went bust .... scary eh

The Finance arm could cloud the issue a bit but even in isolation the Appliances division has a pretty low score

The half year accounts will be really interesting .... how much of the $25m is Finance contribution? Could show Appliances in even more strife than they are letting on at this stage.

Quite good that Altman thing ,,, a fundamentalist tool and confirmed by what the charts have been saying

Hoop
18-02-2009, 07:01 PM
Using the June accounts FPA was in the 'finacially embarrased' zone last June ..... so no doubt is now even more 'finacially embarrased' ... and in more way than one eh. Score much the same as Feltex got a year before it went bust .... scary eh

The Finance arm could cloud the issue a bit but even in isolation the Appliances division has a pretty low score

The half year accounts will be really interesting .... how much of the $25m is Finance contribution? Could show Appliances in even more strife than they are letting on at this stage.

Quite good that Altman thing ,,, a fundamentalist tool and confirmed by what the charts have been saying

Score?
Was it mentioned in the previous posts somewhere?..Did I miss something?
Winner what is your value of the Z score you are mentioning...

Major von Tempsky
19-02-2009, 07:58 AM
You guys would not do very well at examinations, particularly in logic.

You have to address the question that is actually asked, not the one that you wanted to have been asked.

The question was and is - (A) why does charting not have any significant credibility?

Instead you answered the question (B) Is there some devious way whereby charting can be said to have anticipated the big bad news announcement from FPA?

I cited two facts in relation to (A)
(i) assuming that charting actually could and did have a way of anticipating the big bad news from FPA (insider leaks?) then none of the commentators or readers of this thread would have held any FPA at the time of the announcement but they obviously do.

(ii) If charting had any significant credibility then there wouldn't have been a near 40% fall in FPA when the news was announced.

So I'm afraid the thesis that "Charting does not have any significant credibility" stands unchallenged until you actually debate and answer the right question.

And no, I haven't held any FPA for some years for fundamental analysis reasons. It has always been very obvious that manufacturing in NZ apart from special situations such as some sorts of food has been doomed. The marvel is that it has taken so long for this to become obvious to some people. Maybe its because they have been using charting instead of fundamental analysis. And note that the only hope for FPA has been to rapidly move all the manufacturing off-shore to cheap labour/raw material situations.

Snow Leopard
19-02-2009, 11:27 PM
So, if charting had any credibilty (which it hasn't), none of you would now be holding any FPA shares, nor your friends or acquaintances, and there wouldn't have been about a 40% fall when the news came out because charting would have anticipated it.

But you are, and the price did drop about 40% so the conclusion logically follows.


You guys would not do very well at examinations, particularly in logic.

You have to address the question that is actually asked, not the one that you wanted to have been asked.

The question was and is - (A) why does charting not have any significant credibility?

Instead you answered the question (B) Is there some devious way whereby charting can be said to have anticipated the big bad news announcement from FPA?

I cited two facts in relation to (A)
(i) assuming that charting actually could and did have a way of anticipating the big bad news from FPA (insider leaks?) then none of the commentators or readers of this thread would have held any FPA at the time of the announcement but they obviously do.

(ii) If charting had any significant credibility then there wouldn't have been a near 40% fall in FPA when the news was announced.

So I'm afraid the thesis that "Charting does not have any significant credibility" stands unchallenged until you actually debate and answer the right question.

And no, I haven't held any FPA for some years for fundamental analysis reasons. It has always been very obvious that manufacturing in NZ apart from special situations such as some sorts of food has been doomed. The marvel is that it has taken so long for this to become obvious to some people. Maybe its because they have been using charting instead of fundamental analysis. And note that the only hope for FPA has been to rapidly move all the manufacturing off-shore to cheap labour/raw material situations.

It is rare in this day and age to see such a magnificent application of carefully constructed argument with such precision in the presentation of irrefutable facts and combined with logical reasoning of the highest order.

I for one would be privileged to able to spend even a short time on the same planet as this person.

Yours in awe
Paper Tiger

Hoop
20-02-2009, 10:54 AM
See here: Altman's Z-score formula for predicting bankruptcy (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=244374#post244374)

Thxs Belgarion

Jay
20-02-2009, 12:10 PM
Couldn't agree more PT, especially the fist paragragh you quoted, brilliant logic :)

Dr_Who
21-02-2009, 01:25 PM
Here is a good reason why the nz govt should not bail out FPA or any other non strategic company.

Jim Rogers is onto it and we should listen to him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vixTz7tpF_w

winner69
22-02-2009, 02:19 PM
Won't find anthing will they ........only Black Marubozus I think

NZX to probe dramatic share price tumble

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4855561a13.html

Dr_Who
22-02-2009, 04:12 PM
Would be more interesting to see who has been selling one week prior to the announcement.

I await the NZSE investigation.

Major von Tempsky
23-02-2009, 07:36 AM
So, the NZX is going to investigate the near 40% fall in FPA in one day.

Obviously it wouldn't bother doing this if it believed the fairytales being spun here about how charting predicted the bad news and the 40% fall.

ops.normal
23-02-2009, 07:55 AM
So, the NZX is going to investigate the near 40% fall in FPA in one day.

Obviously it wouldn't bother doing this if it believed the fairytales being spun here about how charting predicted the bad news and the 40% fall.

That's a bit of a non sequitur - understanding the reasons behind something is entirely separate from whether or not it was predicted.

Arguably they wouldn't bother investigating if the fundamentalists believed it dropped to a fair value :D

The two strings are mutually exclusive.

Stranger_Danger
23-02-2009, 09:29 AM
Major,

Dude, you have major issues. Did an uptrending chart and a couple of candlesticks touch you in a bad way during childhood or something?

Phaedrus
23-02-2009, 10:48 AM
So, the NZX is going to investigate the near 40% fall in FPA in one day. Obviously it wouldn't bother doing this if it believed the fairytales being spun here about how charting predicted the bad news and the 40% fall.MvT, this is so simple it is hard to believe that you still don't understand.

TA did NOT "predict" the bad news and the subsequent 40% fall. How many times do I have to point this out to you?

I'm not at all surprised that the NZX is going to look into this fall. It is quite obvious from the chart that the bad news did not come as a shock to everyone. At a practical level this is of purely academic interest, though, because only those fighting the market and ignoring the trend would have been buying or holding FPA at this time. Well before the big drop FPA was already in a downtrend and showing more than its usual weakness.

The chart was merely a means of objectively monitoring the ongoing negative market sentiment toward FPA - something that was painfully obvious to anyone that bothered to look.

MvT, I wonder if you have actually read the NZX probe announcement "....likely to come under scrutiny are trading volumes in F&P shares the week leading up to Monday's fall. The previous Friday, trading volumes went through a noticeable spike as 2.4m shares were traded - a volume exceeded on only four days in the past six months for the stock. F&P shares also fell 19c over the week, and the interest here is whether there was any evidence of insider trading."

Pretty much what I was pointing out here! (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=244119#post244119)

AMR
23-02-2009, 09:23 PM
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/MessageBoard/Messages.aspx?id=33777971&threadid=33777971

FPA involved in conspiracy

Dr_Who
24-02-2009, 06:57 AM
I combine both fundamental analysis and charting to make my decision.

You cant always pick the bottom or the top, but a near enough guess is good enough. :)