2020 Stock Picking Comp

[Oliver Mander]

Its that time again! Make your claim on picking the stocks to watch in 2020...
The rules are similar to 2019 - with one minor change as outlined in (2) below.
Feel free to circulate this widely - we had a good range of entries this year, and would be great to see that grow further.

Rules:

Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ). Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $10m may not be selected.

Please also make a SIXTH pick - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
Note that 'Cash' is one of the possible selections - this will assume a 12 month term deposit rate of 2.6%
Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
Picks in by 7pm January 2nd 2019 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.

You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.


Returns calculations

Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2019 (Dec 31st 2019) to the last closing price of 2020.
Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
Rights issues are included according to a formula that does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year.

If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.



There are THREE ways to enter:


via this survey form: https://bit.ly/2REKHzh
email to sylvestercat2018@gmail.com
private message to me on sharetrader


I won't publish what people are picking before Dec 31st.
If there is a stock missing from the picklist on the survey form - let me know and I will sort it quickly!

Happy Christmas / New Year everyone...and happy picking.

Your faithful puddytat,
Sylvester

[Toulouse - Luzern]

looks good

[iceman]

Thanks for doing this once again SC. Always a bit of fun.

[Oliver Mander]

looks good

appreciated your feedback on the 2019 comp - hope the slight rule amendment goes some way to resolving the issue :-)!

[TideMan]

The survey link does not work for me.
I get this cryptic message from OneDrive:

This item might have been deleted, expired, or you might not have permission to view it. Contact the owner of this item for more information.

[Beagle]

Good on ya for running the comp again, you're a supercat :)
Don't suppose we could pick a share listed on the unlisted platform with a market cap of more than $10m ?
Some companies on there have a market cap of hundreds of millions.

[peetter]

Same issue with the survey link not working.


@SylvesterCat can I have a question? How do you get the shareprice data from NZX? Do you do it manually?

[greater fool]

Passed use by date. Edited in lieu of removal.

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...I have no idea why the survey link is not working - I will sort it out this evening after work. My humble apologies.

In terms of data, I have set up a routine that 'scrapes' data from websites. It isn't commercial use, so feel ok about this.
Definitely not manual! Beagle, will look into USX - not sure if this will be that easy for me I'm afraid, but can check it out.

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...the survey link is now working and has been corrected in the post above. Please accept my apologies for that rather inauspicious start.
Note that the following companies are currently excluded as their market cap is below $10m:

PIL
SEA
LIV
GSH
FIN

[Beagle]

Hi all...I have no idea why the survey link is not working - I will sort it out this evening after work. My humble apologies.

In terms of data, I have set up a routine that 'scrapes' data from websites. It isn't commercial use, so feel ok about this.
Definitely not manual! Beagle, will look into USX - not sure if this will be that easy for me I'm afraid, but can check it out.

Appreciate you looking into it Supercat :)

[Jay]

Thanks SylvesterCat
Have now entered via the link

Keep up the good work:t_up:

[Oliver Mander]

keeping at the top...have asked for a sticky but has not happened yet!

[RTM]

keeping at the top...have asked for a sticky but has not happened yet!

Link worked perfectly for me. Wonder if my picks will be the same level of purrrfection.
Thanks for organising this.

[RupertBear]

Thanks for organising this again much appreciated :)

[tim23]

gee that was easy thanks very much!

[winner69]

At least NZ Herald recognises that ‘investing’ is just a form of punting

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12294223

[NOCASH]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12294223 does anyone know the top picks from the brokers for 2020?

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks Sylvester Cat.
Nice and easy SW :-)

[tim23]

I don't have Herald Premium so will have to buy paper unless someone can post picks manually?

[Oliver Mander]

I will include the broker picks in the final listing. Unlike the Herald, I use 31st Dec - Dec 31st, so the percentages are slightly different.

[BlackPeter]

cheers for organizing.

... noted however that the confirmation message after entering my picks read:


10916

So - I hope I entered the 2020 competition despite the message saying that I entered the 2019 one ...

[Oliver Mander]

BlackPeter, you have definitely entered....we have around 90 entrants so far, so hoping we get a whole lot more! Beagle, I have looked at how I can get Unlisted data...I can probably manage the share prices, but a reliable dividend feed is a problem :-(. Will keep working on it, but for now lets just keep NZX.
One thing I'd like to try mid-year is a separate "month to month" trading comp...perhaps get Unlisted in that...

[Anna Naum]

Could you please add SDL to the choices, Mkt Cap above $10m

[Oliver Mander]

Could you please add SDL to the choices, Mkt Cap above $10m

Has now been added Anna. Sorry about that :-(.

[bohemian]

Sylvester I entered my picks, should I have received a notification?

[Oliver Mander]

Sylvester I entered my picks, should I have received a notification?

Yes you should have received a quick note acknowledging the entry - regardless, I can see that your picks are indeed there (assuming you used the name bohemian!)

[davflaws]

Kia ora Sylvester
That was really easy thanx. Tou hau Tou hau.

[Oliver Mander]

Broker Picks from Herald:
(we don't know the Sharetrader top 5 yet, as entries have not closed)



B - Craigs Investment

ATM
MFT
MEL
EBO
FRE


B - Jarden

ATM
ERD
IFT
KMD
OCA


B - Forsyth Barr

CEN
ARV
SAN
CNU
ATM


B - Hamilton Hindin Greene

ZEL
ATM
MEL
EBO
FPH


B - MSL Capital

AFT
ARV
HGH
PLX
VCT


B - Sharetrader Top 5

[Oliver Mander]

Kia ora Sylvester
That was really easy thanx. Tou hau Tou hau.

no worries! good luck...

[RGR367]

Entered! Thanks a lot SylvesterCat for another year :t_up:

[duncan22]

ASX comp now live for those that play both markets:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11639-2020-yearly-stock-picking-competition

[hyinvest]

Thanks a lot SylvesterCat for organizing this competition.

I have a premium subscription to NZ herald but couldn't find the list of brokers picks for 2020. Can you please share it with us?

I think it will be great if each participant write few words about the reasons for picking each stock?

[tango]

Entered! Looking forward to this. It will be fun

I saw the Brokers Picks for 2020.
Does someone have the Brokers Results from their 2019 picks in the Herald?
Thanks :)

[NOCASH]

Below was posted in another thread:

Hobson Craigs Jarden Forbar MSL HHG
SKO A2M A2M CEN AFT ZEL
OCA MFT ERD ARV ARV A2M
TWR MEL IFT SAN HGH MEL
MFT EBO KMD CNU PLX EBO
A2M FRE OCA A2M VCT FPH

[Oliver Mander]

Broker Picks from Herald:
(we don't know the Sharetrader top 5 yet, as entries have not closed)



B - Craigs Investment

ATM
MFT
MEL
EBO
FRE


B - Jarden

ATM
ERD
IFT
KMD
OCA


B - Forsyth Barr

CEN
ARV
SAN
CNU
ATM


B - Hamilton Hindin Greene

ZEL
ATM
MEL
EBO
FPH


B - MSL Capital

AFT
ARV
HGH
PLX
VCT


B - Sharetrader Top 5










And also in this thread above...

[Oliver Mander]

Entered! Looking forward to this. It will be fun

I saw the Brokers Picks for 2020.
Does someone have the Brokers Results from their 2019 picks in the Herald?
Thanks :)

Tango, if you click on the 2019 results link in the 2019 comp, you can see the broker's picks and their performance from Dec 31st - Dec 31st. The Herald uses a different timeframe, but the flavour is close enough...

[hyinvest]

Thank you so much NOCASH

[hyinvest]

Thanks SylvesterCat

[tango]

Tango, if you click on the 2019 results link in the 2019 comp, you can see the broker's picks and their performance from Dec 31st - Dec 31st. The Herald uses a different timeframe, but the flavour is close enough...
Thanks so much!

I didn't get an acknowledgement from the form I submitted but I assume it found its way to you through cyberspace :)

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks so much!

I didn't get an acknowledgement from the form I submitted but I assume it found its way to you through cyberspace :)

Has indeed.
I think it only gives an on-screen acknowledgment, it doesn't email back to you :-(. Will change that next year!

[CD_CHCH]

Many thanks SylvesterCat for all your hard work in running the share picks. Entered again for the 3rd year - hopefully my 2020 picks will be more successful than my 2019 picks (admittedly it isn't a very high bar to beat)

[Dlownz]

First time I've entered in this so will be fun.
Just a little guttered blt didn't wait till after the start of this to go up in price

[Timesurfer]

First time I've entered in this so will be fun.
Just a little guttered blt didn't wait till after the start of this to go up in price

Had a similar thing last year when IKE spiked just prior to the opening (then dropped to the floor for most of the year before finally climbing back to a posative result).

[Oliver Mander]

Make sure you get your picks in today!! The form will 'lock off' this evening...I am travelling, but will get some summaries out tomorrow...

[mikeybycrikey]

I've just entered with the form now. Thanks for organising this again and thanks for all your work in 2019 too.

[numbersman]

Hi there,I entered last week but cannot see any confirmation email? Is the page live yet?

[Oliver Mander]

Will get it live late tonight. Am travelling on holiday so need to find 15 minutes:-). Sorry for inconvenience

[Joshuatree]

FWIW brokers picks for 2020 .ATM 5 out of 6

10:24Broker Picks ft. My Picks | Top 5 NZ Stocks in 2020 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=2ahUKEwjHzoWZkOfmAhX54zgGHebPAJkQwqsBMAN6BAgKE AQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dm3 6VBN6g3xc&usg=AOvVaw2yVwQU2NDjfFybD2NEgF2f)

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...2020 Picks available HERE: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks/2020-commentary
Have a check, and make sure its correct.

As I'm travelling, there will be no results until later in Jan. 2019 Results will be available tomorrow.

[Dlownz]

Hi sylvester
Pretty sure my pucks are on there.
Just the names a little out
I'm under - Down should be dlownz

[Chanchay]

Hi sylvester
Pretty sure my pucks are on there.
Just the names a little out
I'm under - Down should be dlownz

Pesky autocorrect

[brucey09]

Will get it live late tonight. Am travelling on holiday so need to find 15 minutes:-). Sorry for inconvenience

Hi Sylvester (any relation to TC ?),
Thanks for your effort last and this year.
Can you please post a direct link to the latest competition results as I have difficulty in getting to the correct page.
Thanks,
Festive regards,
brucey09

[LAC]

At least NZ Herald recognises that ‘investing’ is just a form of punting

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12294223

W69 - I noticed you dont enter the comp under the name winner69, do you participate at all?

[clearasmud]

Hi all...2020 Picks available HERE: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks/2020-commentary
Have a check, and make sure its correct.

As I'm travelling, there will be no results until later in Jan. 2019 Results will be available tomorrow.

Sylvester,I noticed a mistake with one of my picks.

Somehow I received WDT as a pick, however I actually picked CDI. (CDL investments).

Thank you for running this comp.

[d.viviani]

Hello sylvester, I emailed some entries but I fear I may have missed out ??

[Oliver Mander]

Clearasmud - you definitely entered with WDT (honest!). But will change to CDI when I update for first results.

D.viviani - you'll be in there!!! Found your email, will add in...

[clearasmud]

Clearasmud - you definitely entered with WDT (honest!). But will change to CDI when I update for first results.

D.viviani - you'll be in there!!! Found your email, will add in...

Sylvester,
I'm very surprised with your reply.I only entered stocks I'm invested in.
But thank you very much!

[d.viviani]

thanks SylvesterCat ..... enjoy the year!

[Sideshow Bob]

Whoops, looks like missed the boat.... :(

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...well, here are the first set of results for 2020. I've also cleaned up the website, to put the commentary on the front page and make it easier to see how the "Sharetrader Top5" is going. Last, I've validated the closing prices on Dec 31st 2019, to make sure we have the same start point - there were some changes to the Smartshare ETF prices - obviously, the NZX was a bit remiss in sending a Dec 31st update to its customers! This also will have had some minor impact on the 2019 results, although nothing impacting the top 5. I've put the finalised 2019 results on the website as well.

Here is the link to the results and commentary website (results are available now):
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks/

And here is the weekly commentary and results to Jan 10th...

As you'd expect, its too early in the year to make any serious assessment for the 2020 results so far. The best performing share in the 10 days so far is New Talisman (NTL) - of clear benefit to the 7 people who picked it! There's probably nothing specific driving the NTL movement, although anticipation is building for the next quarterly announcements due in early February. Other strong shares this week included NZ Oil and Gas (NZO), Michael Hill (MHJ) with expected strong Christmas trading and AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT).Top of the entrants so far is Paint it Black, thanks to NTL and a solid week by Mercury (MCY) driving a 4.2% weekly return. But there's a long way to go...


Username
Pick 1
Pick 2
Pick 3
Pick 4
Pick 5
Opening Investment
Closing Investment
add Dividends
add Rights Issue
TOTAL $ RETURN
TOTAL %AGE
TOTAL Annualised %age
Rank


Paint it Black
NTL
MEL
PCT
MCY
NZX
$10,000
$10,425
$0
$0
$425
4.2%
155.1%
1


Brain
NTL
PLX
BLT
QEX
WDT
$10,000
$10,402
$0
$0
$402
4.0%
173.5%
2


Airedale
NZO
WBC
TLS
SPK
SKT
$10,000
$10,392
$0
$0
$392
3.9%
142.9%
3


Bigbob
NTL
ARB
PEB
WDT
ATM
$10,000
$10,342
$0
$0
$342
3.4%
151.5%
4


tango
AFT
TRU
TLT
ARV
ATM
$10,000
$10,296
$0
$0
$296
3.0%
118.5%
5

[Oliver Mander]

Whoops, looks like missed the boat.... :(

Sideshow...get them to me now (just message via sharetrader or post on the thread). Will get you in next week. Will probably make your opening prices the 17th though, but that would still make sure you're in!

[Oliver Mander]

One last thing...a little blog on my LinkedIn profile. Might be interesting
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nz-shares-watch-2020-oliver-mander/

[Dlownz]

Nice read. Thank you really enjoyed it and reaffirmed my picks plus more 😁

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all - results for the week ended Jan 17th are available - click here to have a read!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[waikare]

Thanks Sylvester, for the lovely new site, excellent.

Cheers

[Snoopy]

Hi all - results for the week ended Jan 17th are available - click here to have a read!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks


Just the top five results so far right? I can't see any links on that page that don't link back to the same home page. So if you are outside the top five, wait until the cat gets back from his holidays?

SNOOPY

[Oliver Mander]

Just the top five results so far right? I can't see any links on that page that don't link back to the same home page. So if you are outside the top five, wait until the cat gets back from his holidays?

SNOOPY

Snoopy, if you head for the "Overall Results" section from the menu on that website (on the side), you should get to the overall listing. If you're on a phone or tablet, it might be that the menu is hidden behind a 'hamburger' - just click on the 3 horizontal lines and the menu will appear.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy, if you head for the "Overall Results" section from the menu on that website (on the side), you should get to the overall listing. If you're on a phone or tablet, it might be that the menu is hidden behind a 'hamburger' - just click on the 3 horizontal lines and the menu will appear.

Ah OK, I clicked the 'hamburger', the thing tipped on its side and spilled the menu. It was a bit disappointing that as a fast food fan (from an investment not an eating perspective) I couldn't figure that out. I hope I didn't make too much of a mess on your pristine website, with the sauce and onion falling out, when I spilled that burger. I got a shock to see that I was in 13th place with my boring income focussed portfolio. Is being in 13th place lucky this early on?

SNOOPY

[GR8DAY]

........gr8 effort Cat. I wont be surprised if I actually win this thing BTW......just got that special feeling this year with things lining up.

[RGR367]

........gr8 effort Cat. I wont be surprised if I actually win this thing BTW......just got that special feeling this year with things lining up.

Admirable optimism but too early mate ;)
Yeah, the site is cool. Thanks SylvesterCat! :t_up:

[GR8DAY]

Admirable optimism but too early mate ;)
Yeah, the site is cool. Thanks SylvesterCat! :t_up:

...ah well, the thought was uplifting for a brief moment. Back to the drawing board, thanks for that RGR367. ��

[HITMAN]

Looking good, just wish I was at the top of the list, take a screen shot and my life would be complete. I'm sure it won't last too long in the top 5.
Thanks Cat

[tango]

Very exciting, thank you. I am top of the list. I should take a screenshot while it lasts :)

Edited: I own all of those shares so that makes me doubly happy with my portfolio.

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks for all the kind words! Yep tango, its always good when you own the 'good stuff'!

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...worth checking out this article in the Herald. Well done silverblizzard888 and baldie...famous!! The movie offers will come flooding in.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12302955

[silverblizzard888]

Hi all...worth checking out this article in the Herald. Well done silverblizzard888 and baldie...famous!! The movie offers will come flooding in.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12302955

Oh thats really cool, its a shame its behind a paywall. If anyone can do a screenshot it'd be nice to see what it says. Thanks SylvesterCat, certainly a nice bonus to winning the comp.

[peetter]

I put it in Word

[silverblizzard888]

I put it in Word

Thanks Peetter, you're awesome!

[Oliver Mander]

Results for the week ending Jan 24th available: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Oliver Mander]

Results for the week ending Jan 31st available: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Jonboyz]

Results for the week ending Jan 31st available: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Thanks for administering this comp SylvesterCat. The google site you designed is brilliant. Now, if you could magic my stocks to perform a bit better...

[Oliver Mander]

Results for the week ending Feb 7th available: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
Sorry jonboyz, don't do magic very well. My own picks are only just starting to kick into gear, but as someone who is 101st right now, I can only say I'm taking an "annual" view :-)!

[Oliver Mander]

Results for the week ending Feb 14th available: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Some huge changes this week, and a couple of observations on individual shares...

[RupertBear]

Waaahooo thats me The Bear in 2nd place :D lucky I didnt include MPG in my picks :laugh:

[RupertBear]

Oh and PS thanks for running this competition SylvesterCat :)

[Oliver Mander]

Oh and PS thanks for running this competition SylvesterCat :)

No worries Mr. Bear! MPG was my worst performing stock in my real portfolio 2 years ago - I ditched it in disgust for a 30% loss, for about $1/share. What a good decision that turned out to be!!!

[RupertBear]

No worries Mr. Bear! MPG was my worst performing stock in my real portfolio 2 years ago - I ditched it in disgust for a 30% loss, for about $1/share. What a good decision that turned out to be!!!

Good decision SylveterCat! Unfortunately I own MPG in real life and am down around 50% at the moment :( luckily I also own all the shares I picked in this competition so I cant complain :)

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
All pre-this week of course...will hate to see the outcomes at the end of this week!

[ratkin]

Think I was the only one who selected cash as one of the Five options, it might be leading soon at this rate!

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, to Feb 28th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
my apologies for delay - a busy week. Week 1 of the carnage has seen some big changes...and the cash benchmark is indeed coming to the fore.

[Lorne Ranger]

Latest placings out now, to Feb 28th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
my apologies for delay - a busy week. Week 1 of the carnage has seen some big changes...and the cash benchmark is indeed coming to the fore.

Thanks for doing this Sylvester Cat, heads up while the commentary is updated to 28th, results appear to still show those lovely halcyon days of the 21st Feb. So.... still holding my breath.....

[Oliver Mander]

That's a bit embarrassing Lorne Ranger! All sorted now! Sorry for the inconvenience.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, to Mar 6th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
The reason for the long delay time is the need to "clean" the data and the programming that supports extracting it; the volatile swings have had a big impact on the stability of data sources.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, to Mar 13th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Dlownz]

It's gone a bit quite on here lol. Might be time to reward the last place as that might be more interesting 😂

[garfy]

Dammit..... I have just noticed that most of my charts almost all show the shape of a Kiwi feeding?

[IAK]

Man, I'm glad I've only got real $$ in one (ATM) of my five picks lol.

[Zaphod]

Dammit..... I have just noticed that most of my charts almost all show the shape of a Kiwi feeding?

LOL! Yes, that's the shape of a Kiwi sucking the cash out of your investments with its beak!

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, to Mar 20th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
Some interesting movements this week, clarity emerging between different sectors.

[weasel]

Hi SylvesterCat, thanks for keeping this up and running despite the carnage around us. I just noticed that I apparently picked OCA twice, not sure how that happened. Would it be possible to switch one for my backup? Otherwise just leave it. Cheers, wease

[Oliver Mander]

No probs. And I'm sorry, I thought I had filtered for things like that.
Keep calm and carry on, the world will be back...with a good lesson or 6 under its belt.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Mar 27th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
I am changing my process a little, hopefully allowing me to update results more often and in a more timely manner. The weekly nature of the commentaries won't change, but hopefully results will flow through a little more effectively!

Regards, the Cat.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Apr 3rd: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[tango]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Apr 3rd: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Thanks for the results. It's fun seeing how things change so dramatically at the moment :)

I wish my actual portfolio was only -7.9%

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Apr 9th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Snoopy]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Apr 9th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

When I look up my individual result, the spreadsheet won't calculate. The opening price and dividends paid are there. But the closing price for all shares is listed as '$0.000'. Some sort of price feed issued?

SNOOPY

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks for letting me know Snoopy! I know what's happened...give me a couple of minutes and I'll fix it.
I take a feed of rights issues, which now includes the KMD one. I've inadvertently cleaned out the feed in publishing the results!

[Oliver Mander]

soi6 is a tiny bit 'in lights' this morning, in the NZ Herald. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325007.
Although the table of broker picks they published was actually in the wrong order...correct image attached here. Not the Herald's fault - mine. The online article will get corrected quickly I am sure.
11303

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325007

The cunning investors that rode the boom of January and early February 2020 and then went to ostensibly all cash might allow themselves a small pat on the back though.

[Leftfield]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325007

The cunning investors that rode the boom of January and early February 2020 and then went to ostensibly all cash might allow themselves a small pat on the back though.

Not necessarily......I'm not all cash, rode the boom and still riding...... my five year average pa return (as calculated by ShareSight) is currently just on 70%pa.

11321

Much better than cash in hand IMHO. (Just saying.....as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.)

[ScrappyO]

Not necessarily......I'm not all cash, rode the boom and still riding...... my five year average pa return (as calculated by ShareSight) is currently just on 70%pa.

11321

Much better than cash in hand IMHO. (Just saying.....as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.)

I agree Left Field, I have rode this out and have picked up more shares in the shares I own. Im only down about 5% from my portfolio high.

[Oliver Mander]

Down 11% for me (both global and NZ portfolios), probably more in line with overall NZX market. I'm not too unhappy with that, in context...and I've picked up a few goodies on sale on the way, so that will help me out in the longer term...
I admit I did get out of AIR before the significant decline. If I'd hung onto that, would have been a worse result...

[ScrappyO]

Heartland bank was a killer for my portfolio. When the second bounce happened into the low nineties I started to buy. (I would have to say I was nervous about it at the time)

[davflaws]

I can't say I wasn't warned that the market would crash - (or that there are not warnings that it will do so again) - and if I had sold near the top and had cash available for some of the screaming bargains I might have been $120k richer by now. But actively trading has never been my pattern and I was going out of contact to dive in the Coral Sea, so I decided to ride it out. As of this moment (well few minutes anyway) my "real" portfolio has the same companies as the "pick'', and is down 4.5% on my peak daily close.

And I got to swim right up to a small (1.6m) barracuda as it lay motionless and dreamy with its mouth and gills open while small fish swam in and out cleaning its very impressive teeth.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to Apr 24th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.
Sorry for missing last week - thought I had published something, obviously I didn't!

[Oliver Mander]

Just a quick check, is anyone aware of any rights (entitlement) offers out there at the moment? I'm aware of VGL, KMD, PYS and MOA...have I missed any?
TRU and AIA look like straight 'share purchase plans' to me (ie, no rights).
Purpose is to get rights offers in the game calculations correctly!

[Snoopy]

Just a quick check, is anyone aware of any rights (entitlement) offers out there at the moment? I'm aware of VGL, KMD, PYS and MOA...have I missed any?
TRU and AIA look like straight 'share purchase plans' to me (ie, no rights).
Purpose is to get rights offers in the game calculations correctly!

I don't hold TRU or AIA. Nor have I selected them in the competition, so I have no direct interest in getting these calculations right. However, IIRC the AIA shares offered to small shareholders and any oversubscriptions were going to be scaled in accordance with existing shareholdings. So this looks like a rights issue in all but name to me, and it should be accounted for as such, IMO.

SNOOPY

[Toulouse - Luzern]

...But actively trading has never been my pattern and I was going out of contact to dive in the Coral Sea, so I decided to ride it out...

And I got to swim right up to a small (1.6m) barracuda as it lay motionless and dreamy with its mouth and gills open while small fish swam in and out cleaning its very impressive teeth...

Compelled to reply, though off topic.

A lifetime great experience Davflaws you had with the barracuda.
Nearest I have been diving to the Coral Sea is on the Barrier Reef from Port Douglas.

When I was in Moorea, Cooks Bay, Tahiti entrance, diving with the French skipper of a Beneteau 32, we were joined by a dozen or so big Barracuda who circled us a few times. The skipper called then in at about 30 feet with squeaking noises.

A priceless lifetime experience ...

[Lorne Ranger]

Hey. Sylvester Cat.... hate to moan but.... is another update coming sometime soon? Or have I missed the post setting expectations? Love your work, just hoping to see more of it :)

[Oliver Mander]

Hey. Sylvester Cat.... hate to moan but.... is another update coming sometime soon? Or have I missed the post setting expectations? Love your work, just hoping to see more of it :)

You're so right...has been slipping down my to-do list with a bit of other stuff I have on. Will get an update/commentary out on Saturday, taking into account today's prices.
My apologies for this.

[Lorne Ranger]

You're so right...has been slipping down my to-do list with a bit of other stuff I have on. Will get an update/commentary out on Saturday, taking into account today's prices.
My apologies for this.

Thanks SC!! My virtual portfolio is doing rather better than my real one so these updates give me moments of respite. Cheers

[Oliver Mander]

Finally - latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to May 22nd: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!

[RupertBear]

Finally - latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to May 22nd: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!

:eek2: haaa thats me RupertBear at the top! Golly Gosh and they are shares I hold in my real life as well :D Thanks heaps for doing this SylvesterCat

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Finally - latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to May 22nd: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!

Thanks for this SylvesterCat.
I think you do a great job with the results and presentation
Hard to begin to understand just how complex it is.
Thanks

[Ggcc]

:eek2: haaa thats me RupertBear at the top! Golly Gosh and they are shares I hold in my real life as well :D Thanks heaps for doing this SylvesterCat
Well done to you fine sir!!!! My shares have mostly tanked, but still treading higher than I invested......... Only slightly lol

[RupertBear]

Well done to you fine sir!!!! My shares have mostly tanked, but still treading higher than I invested......... Only slightly lol

Cheers Ggcc, I know its “only” a competition but it made my day seeing The Bears name up there :) Most of my other shares have pretty much tanked as well Ggcc so you are not alone! Its a bit of a roller coaster ride at the moment thats for sure.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to May 29th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!
Slightly bizarre result this week, but seems correct.
Note that daily share prices crashed on me last week, so I only have the "weekly" movement. Will try to resolve this week.

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to June 5th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!
...Sharetrader Top 5 has had a BIG turnaround this week!

[Oliver Mander]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to June 19th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!
...a new leader (sorry RupertBear)

[davflaws]

Latest placings out now, and weekly commentary, to June 19th: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks!
...a new leader (sorry RupertBear)

For nearly fifty years as a psychotherapist I would ask my clients "How are you?" - and whether they replied "Wonderful" or "Rat****", I could always say "Don't worry - it won't last!". But this result has persuaded my darling wife to raid her tax a/c to put another 5k into the portfolio.

[RupertBear]

For nearly fifty years as a psychotherapist I would ask my clients "How are you?" - and whether they replied "Wonderful" or "Rat****", I could always say "Don't worry - it won't last!". But this result has persuaded my darling wife to raid her tax a/c to put another 5k into the portfolio.

Awww it was fun being on top for while but Well done davflaws for picking PEB! Gee who would have seen that coming! I hope if you hold PEB in your real life portfolio you are well and truely in the green now. :t_up:

[Oliver Mander]

Hi al...not sure where to post this, so thought I would put it here. Article in NZ Herald on NZ investing vs AU....behind the paywall, and no I can't copy it out but a good read (I say that with some bias of course)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12342863

[RupertBear]

Damn just when I thought the wee spike in FPH this week might sneak The Bear back up the rankings PEB comes out with even more good news! :eek2: Aww stinker! Your wife will be raiding your tax a/c next davflaws to buy more! :D

[Oliver Mander]

Please excuse the terrible delay - latest update in the usual place: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks
Note that even if the 'blog' isn't updated with commentary, the tables often are; it is mostly automated, so tends to "hit" every Monday.

[tango]

Thanks for keeping this up to date. It's amazing that the top few have essentially doubled their money!

[stoploss]

Interesting to compare to the top 5 on the ASX comp . - well down everyone !!



1

silverblizzard888:
158.00
%
{
APT
SPT
Z1P
SZL
OPY
134.19
111.28
72.19
279.49
192.86
}
cash = 0
div = 0



2

younga:
73.98
%
{
ZNO
EXR
SUP
RES
JAT
243.51
153.51
4.55
-1.05
-30.61
}
cash = 0
div = 0



3

airedale:
72.71
%
{
RXL
GOR
SAR
EVN
OZL
142.31
43.82
90.03
57.14
30.24
}
cash = 0
div = 0



4

wizAlvin:
72.19
%
{
NTM
PGI
CEL
TAP
DGO
6.33
23.81
114.29
-26.96
243.48
}
cash = 0
div = 0



5

JBmurc:
70.84





1

silverblizzard888:
158.00
%
{
APT
SPT
Z1P
SZL
OPY
134.19
111.28
72.19
279.49
192.86
}
cash = 0
div = 0



2

younga:
73.98
%
{
ZNO
EXR
SUP
RES
JAT
243.51
153.51
4.55
-1.05
-30.61
}
cash = 0
div = 0



3

airedale:
72.71
%
{
RXL
GOR
SAR
EVN
OZL
142.31
43.82
90.03
57.14
30.24
}
cash = 0
div = 0



4

wizAlvin:
72.19
%
{
NTM
PGI
CEL
TAP
DGO
6.33
23.81
114.29
-26.96
243.48
}
cash = 0
div = 0



5

JBmurc:
70.84

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...latest updates available on the usual website.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Data sources went a bit screwy in August, which is the main reason for not publishing anything...but think I have resolved it all.
The delisting of Augusta Capital has affected one participant, with a replacement share applied as to their original selection.

Feel free to review, and if you pick any share price errors up let me know :-)! Also - were there any further rights issues in August? Not aware of any, but I have been busy, so may have missed them...

[CROESUS U.T.]

Thank you Sylvester - after 2 months in the top 10 I feel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXW02XmBGQw

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...latest results and commentary to Sep 4th out now.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Might start doing a table for those that DIDN'T pick Pacific Edge :-)!!!

[tango]

Hi all...latest results and commentary to Sep 4th out now.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Thanks for the update.

Did you adjust for the TLT capital return in June? I can't see it but maybe it's built in...

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks for the update.

Did you adjust for the TLT capital return in June? I can't see it but maybe it's built in...

Nope! Will have a check and get it included in the next set of results. Apologies for that, and thank you for letting me know.
Have just put the APL entitlement offer into the model, so that one will flow thru from end September

[Oliver Mander]

Okay, TLT now included. It actually made the total return go down, as (of course) it was using the old (higher) number of shares at the current price.
If you picked TLT, it will look a little odd - the closing investment figure is clearly overstated, but the differences are accounted for in the rights issue column. My model didn't allow for share cancellations, and its not that easy to change at this stage, so have just bundled it in there. Hope thats ok. Feel free to check the working!

[tango]

Thanks SylvesterCat :t_up:

My brain went a bit bananas trying to work out the maths.
I finally got all the sums done and it's spot on.

I bow down to your genius spreadsheet skills!!!

[Oliver Mander]

Glad you checked - always better with two!

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...latest results and commentary to Sep 25th out now.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[RRR]

Congratulations Oliver Mander - the new CEO of NZ shareholders association...wow:t_up::t_up:

[Leftfield]

Congratulations Oliver Mander - the new CEO of NZ shareholders association...wow:t_up::t_up:

Great News! Well done that man!

[tango]

Congratulations Oliver Mander - the new CEO of NZ shareholders association...wow:t_up::t_up:

Awesome!

Ummm... a wee suggestion. It's a pain in the neck for me to login each time to read the Undirected Proxy Voting Intentions, especially if I am on my mobile. If you agree, it would be wonderful if the voting intentions were included in the email so I can read it immediately and make a decision, instead of having to go to my PC, login, read it and then decide. Just my two cents worth. Other than that I love what the NZSA is doing for us :t_up:

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks for the feedback tango! Yup, there will be plenty to do in the comms space...

[tango]

Thanks for the feedback tango! Yup, there will be plenty to do in the comms space...

Looking forward to it!

[silverblizzard888]

Thanks for the feedback tango! Yup, there will be plenty to do in the comms space...

Congratulations Oliver! You'll be a busy man!

[Dlownz]

Hi Sylvester. Any chance of a update.
We've had some interesting movements over the last month. 😁

[Oliver Mander]

Hi Sylvester. Any chance of a update.
We've had some interesting movements over the last month. 

Hiya - the results are actually published on the website, I just haven't written my 'front end' commentary.
Updated to Oct 9th.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Oliver Mander]

Picks and commentary updated to October 30th! Bit of change in the top 5...and the Sharetrader top 5 continues to look good!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

[Leftfield]

Thanks again for this competition Oliver and well done Davflaws!

[Oliver Mander]

An update on the picks comp, together with commentary, posted in the usual spot.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

On another note, the NZ Shareholders Association had its AGM during the weekend. If people are ok with it, I'll post a potted summary here soon (unless someone beats me to it).

[RRR]

On another note, the NZ Shareholders Association had its AGM during the weekend. If people are ok with it, I'll post a potted summary here soon (unless someone beats me to it).[/QUOTE]

That will be very helpful Sylvester Cat:t_up:
I have been attending the AGM since 2013, but missed this year..

Best wishes

[Jerry]

How hilarious! I have to admit to having two persona in the picks.
Bearabull at No 2 and Static at 201 out of 204. :p

[Oliver Mander]

hi all...hey, a bit stretched to update the online commentary at the moment - but the underlying s/sheet has been updated, and is viewable on the web page.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

Note that this now adjusts for the MET SoA, with the 'purchase' of alternative picks being reflected as of Nov 3rd for those who selected MET.
It shows up in the "rights issue" column as a gain/loss on sale, as I have no more column real estate to place it!

[Oliver Mander]

underlying s/sheet has been updated, and is viewable on the web page for w/e Nov 27th.
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...just a quick note to say that I will get a game going for 2021. Hoping to link with the NZSA around it, details coming soon.

[Oliver Mander]

Results AND commentary out for week ending December 4th...will get better about the commentaries as we head into the final month!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

Also - keep an eye out for the new comp for 2021. Will call for picks shortly.

[fastbike]

Slightly off topic,but here are the returns on my portfolio for last three years - eek. (Hopefully image will show inline)

12143

[Oliver Mander]

Results AND commentary out for week ending December 18th...a train wreck for many of us last week (unless you picked...PEB)!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

[winner69]

Sharetrader Top 5 pretty average (did out outperform the NZX50 ...just)

Maybe what they say about the wisdom in crowds doesn't apply to picking stocks

[Lola]

hi all...the survey link is now working and has been corrected in the post above. Please accept my apologies for that rather inauspicious start.
Note that the following companies are currently excluded as their market cap is below $10m:

Pil
sea
liv
gsh
fin

pil might be a fairly regarded as a special situation as the market cap has fluctuated since its recent equity raisings from 16 million to 32 million and sometimes 48 million and back again to todays 16 million . Tomorrow it could be back to 32 million.

[hamish]

Ah.. 2 years running and I'm the biggest loser... Can I make it a 3peat in 2021? Maybe it will be the year of contrarian picks......

[Tomtom]

Hang on, I didn't win? I demand a recount. This is fraud. I can't substantiate those claims but none the less I'm going to repeat them multiple times...

Well done all.

[Dlownz]

I don't think this final results are out yet. Are they.....

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...results and commentary out for the year!! Well done to davflaws and the rest of the top 7!!! A special mention to black knat who was the best of the rest...we have lots of people for the 2021 edition, and I will prepare a bit of an article summarising the longer-term performance of the game - after all, investment is more than a 1-year pick of 5 shares!
https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.

All the best for 2021 everyone.

[Jerry]

Thank you for organising this, Oliver. I wish I had fixed my personal portfolio the same!
Bearabull.

[Oliver Mander]

Thank you for organising this, Oliver. I wish I had fixed my personal portfolio the same!
Bearabull.

Well done Jerry! And thanks for the feedback...