Currencies, Gold, Silver and Oil

[stolwyk]

Miner,

Full of venom again I see.

No, I don't keep anything on you but people have said I have a very good memory for posts. However, the way it is going I may just keep a few records from now on as a warning you just can't tell lies and get away with it.

You said: "anyway if Gerry is mick100 he will trip himself up sooner or later as he has on other sites,signing a post as Gerry when he was using a different name on HC was a classic".

Comment: My surname is Stolwyk and I do sign off with "Gerry" for as long as I have been on HC and ST. Or I may rarely sign off as "Gerry Stolwyk".

The matter has long been forgotten on HC:
I can write a post and put Miner's name at the end of it. That doesn't mean that Miner wrote it. Well, the writer put my first name "Gerry" at the end of a post.

And immediately a small gang claimed it was me who wrote it. It suited them to say so. That happened quite a long time ago, of course.

I could try and write an unnerving post with Miner as the person who signs off and then accuse him that he wrote it. I think he would protest. So, why shouldn't I protest.

The person whom I accused for causing this problem finally sent a message that he wouldn't discuss it anymore and asked we both forget about it.

So, your suggestion that I used a different name on HC and that it became a classic, became a dud old boy and nobody except for you and Enigma believe it.

Actually, what happened after and it did happen quite a few times where the system under stress, looked at 2 posts at the same time, picked up the header of one post (with the writer's name) and the writing of another (with the signed off name) and combined them as one post. The other remnants were never shown. That created an uproar but was finally understood.
___________________________________

You said: "So mick100 is a very good lap dog to Gerry his master,or it was Gerry who hates my guts having a go,or they may just email each other as Gerry so often accuses us of, funny how Gerry does many things he says others do".

Another lot of lies and more venom.
No, I don't email Mick100 as I, unlike you, don't intend to marginalize others and plot it. You see, it is mostly a pack of dogs attacking me and I am defending myself.


"It was Gerry who hates my guts having a go".
No, it is you who hates me, I just feel sad and feel you need treatment for undue ramper sensitivity, malice, deviousness, manipulation and visciousness.

Also, I have been urging you for a long time now to "have a go" at writing a decent relevant post for this thread but you refuse.


Gerry

Gerry Judging others by your own low standards again. I will not stoop to submit such low disguised ramping post as you, submit.

[miner]

"miner, Maybe I am a bit green as far as chat sites are concerned but I'v had a good track record at picking shares over the past few years."

Good on ya Mick if your making money your doing ok,long may it continue,best of luck[8D].

As far as reading a forum and the players in it a bit of time may be needed,if you are going to read forums then learn who to read what to read and who to take note of and then MAKE YOUR OWN MIND UP.

I now actually think other than maybe seeing a new ticker to look at if you know how to find it amongst all the BS on forums that they are detrimental to your trading for a number of reasons.



"Packers, stock picking comps are relevant for a medium-long term investor such as myself. If your trading in and out of shares over a short time frame, then I agree, comps are irrelevant."

Read again what Packer wrote,stock picking comps have no relevance to the real world of trading as if something changes for the worse with your pick(TA,FA) then you cant sell it,or sell it and use the money on something better you find etc.

In the real world you HAVE to be prepared to learn and change,if not people ride that sure thing all the way to the bottom.

To you and others that pick in the comp good on ya have fun and best of luck[8D];).

Cheers
Miner

Mick 100 I played your game as requested but have the same ideahs as POK miner Tracker or your bossom buddy or alter ego once espoused. That these competitions are usless. If you are prepared to hold your selections for next five years I Suspect you must have only one share in each. Or are you going to rely on Gerrys Ramping. But that usually lasts for at the most 6 months and then they gobackwards very readily. When As a newby to stockchat sites I entered part of a long term portfolio you would actually hold I got rubbished very badly. If you want stock picking I was rubbishing ION when Gerry first posted on it CMQ & PTD got the same treatment TRH & WHS got rubbished well before their big falls but basically I have given up trying to educate fools that cannot see past a manipulated balance sheet.

[stolwyk]

Mick,

the only problem is that 5 shares are not enough and there is no facility to dispose of a bad pick on paper.

I tend to pick a share or two I don't hold, and towards the end of the year, I bet that only half the selected shares are covered by the pickers, the rest have been sold. That is partly due to the poor standard of governance where the promised goods are not delivered.

I picked 5 NZ shares last year, only held two of those and one of these now.
People who pick highly speculative shares are likely to quit them before they fall 20%. So, a champion picker may not necessarily have the shares.

Enigma brought in the subject of ramping. Forget about that, I think.


Cheers,

Gerry

Yes Gerry there is no profit in ramping competition stock is there

[Mick100]

"I now actually think other than maybe seeing a new ticker to look at if you know how to find it amongst all the BS on forums that they are detrimental to your trading for a number of reasons."


======================

I agree with those sentiments miner
I have, in the past, advised newbies to go and get a good book on investing rather than fequenting chat sites looking for hot tips.
The forums are not a good place to learn about investing.


Mick

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Mick,

the only problem is that 5 shares are not enough and there is no facility to dispose of a bad pick on paper.

I tend to pick a share or two I don't hold, and towards the end of the year, I bet that only half the selected shares are covered by the pickers, the rest have been sold. That is partly due to the poor standard of governance where the promised goods are not delivered.

I picked 5 NZ shares last year, only held two of those and one of these now.
People who pick highly speculative shares are likely to quit them before they fall 20%. So, a champion picker may not necessarily have the shares.

Enigma brought in the subject of ramping. Forget about that, I think.


Cheers,

Gerry





The trick is then gerry, not to enter very speccy shares which are unlikely to go the distance. On the other hand, to win the comp one would have to hold at least 1 speccy share i would think.
As packers has pointed out, there is some luck involved.


Mick

[stolwyk]

Not a very good market for gold at present.

Last night, the Jap and the USD suddenly increased (The USD from 80.9 to 81.73, vertical rise) and I thought that the Japs were buying the USD. Then, after some time the USD dropped to 81.01.

After midnight, the USD rose to 81.32 while the Euro fell to 1.3482 (-0.0071). The Jap was 102.73 (+0.16). Gold dropped at one stage to 426.9 (427 is resistance, they say) and is now 430.0

Silver 6.50 and oil 41.80.

Reports blamed liquidation by funds wanting to buy in lower, expected increases in interest rates, better economy and expected higher dollar to come.

Some exchanges were closed leading to thin trading.

US data is pointing to weakening home sales and store sales. We need to wait for more results.


An interview with dr. marc faber:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2005/0102.html


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[nelehdine]

Down $15 in three sessions , some cheap gold stocks just around the corner ??

Revhead what about the whitebait cribs the weekends at these were wonderful. It seems we were raiding Oreti beach about the same time but I was probally a good bit older. The trick of chopping the Toheroa was taught to me by one of invercargills characters.

[Revhead]

Enigma

We used to have access to a crib at Tewaewae Lagoon, located on the Southland coast, a bit past Colac bay. I recall staying in others near rivers etc.

Spent many hours rowing around the T. lagoon in an old row boat, spinning for trout. We never went after the whitebait though for some strange reason. But can remember my mother making huge whitebait patties which lasted 2 seconds flat.

On the other side of the lagoon was a small line of sand hills and then the sea. Haven't been there for 30 odd years so may be all gone now.

NZ doesn't seem the same anymore ...

cheers

[stolwyk]

The USD Index rose 1.27 to 82.52
Oil: +$1.78 to 43.91

Euro: 1.327 (-0.0194) Jap 1.045 (+1.79)

Gold 427.1 (-$2.60, a low of 423.7)

Clive Maund, a well known chartist regularly featured here predicted on 20 Dec. either a fall of the USD to 80 or alternatively a rise with gold falling to 410.

I do think that some Central Banks (Japan) may not have been sitting idle and assisted the slide by buying $USD.

Meanwhile the latest adjustments will suit the EEC and Japan; the US deficits are mounting.

Here is the latest Futures News:
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=i4524863349180923968

Here is an interesting article from Jim Puplava:
THE CONSENSUS:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Gerry

[Misc]

Enigma , 'Gerry' was banned from OzStock for dishonesty and multi-nicnames.
It is also rubbish that he suggest HotCopper bans posters regularly , if they did 'Gerry' would be long gone imo.

Rgds,

misc

[stolwyk]

Thanks for that. And what was the "Dishonesty"? Like to know more about that.

Prove that I was banned for using multy-nics. My own name is not a nic.

Also, HC regularly bans posters. Three were banned in Dec and announced by them.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=6&tid=157129&sym=&MSGNO=3064#3064

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=6&tid=154942&sym=&MSGNO=3046#3046

I have been with HCopper since May 2001, so to claim that "It is also rubbish that he suggest HotCopper bans posters regularly, if they did 'Gerry' would be long gone imo", is of course a lie.

I do know a bit more about HCopper than you think. Seems to me that you don't even post there.

Seems that you are out to cause damage but you don't even know what is happening at HotCopper

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

Think you'll find those persons banned on Hotcopper are still posting. Crackaton and Goldbars are one and the same person, and he/she is all over HC with his/her new nick, MonsterCash. He/she was also the one to flood the site with hundreds of posts at the one time. Really don't know why he/she's still posting, as his/her credibility is shot to pieces - and even blind freddy can see that MonsterCash is the same person posting merrily away. Also the HC 'team' came on late, late one Sunday night (I think) and banned him/her - which really does put him/her in the sus category if you ask me. Seems to have been given a free run of the site despite what the HC 'team' have you believe. Also stories of this person having a visit from ASIC - which is in my opinion is a setup. Think you'll find, Gerry, that he/she is also the person who came on with the 'Stolpryk' nic, with the apparent picture of yourself with the Zimmer frame.

Can any of this be substantiated? Nup - but what can be substantiated is that you shouldn't believe everything you read or see on the internet - and backs up what Miner had to write - that reading sharetrading forums is an art in itself. For a start we all know that if Gerry has a Zimmer frame it would definitely not be made out of aluminium like was pictured on HC - but would made out of solid gold or silver. Not that Gerry has a Zimmer frame, as that would require ramps to be built throughout his place of residence, and you hate ramps, don't you Gerry? Or is this ramping kerfuffle just a brouhaha played out on a kindly old gent who is into assisting his fellow man to make profits just like him?

[Misc]

OK 'Gerry' ..... why were you banned from Ozestock then ... mmmmmm??

misc

[stolwyk]

POK,

You wrote:
"Also the HC 'team' came on late, late one Sunday night (I think) and banned him/her - which really does put him/her in the sus category if you ask me".

Comment: Actually they were asked to check the site on weekends as it is then that misdemeaners take place as was the case at times on ST as well.

Let us get back to the topic, I think. See what happens tonight. Gold is dragging the chain at present: 427.0
__________________________________________

Here is something for the Silver people (Thanks Wod.):
WEEKLY COMMENTARY

January 4, 2005


FRIEDMAN’S THEORY

By Theodore Butler

(The following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)


I believe my friend Izzy has discovered a powerful and amazing fact about silver that’s been overlooked. Sometimes you see a thing in front of you, yet don’t focus on it or see it in the proper perspective. Then one day a light bulb goes on in your mind and you see it in an entirely new perspective. That’s when you exclaim to yourself, "Eureka!" I have been fortunate to experience this phenomenon on a number of occasions in my pursuit of knowledge about silver, notably in discovering the fraud and manipulation of metals leasing and the outsized paper short position on the COMEX. It was only by looking at things with a different eye that their true nature emerged.


About the last thing I was looking for lately was a completely new bullish factor in silver that would take my breath away. After all, let’s be realistic, how much more bullish could I get over silver? But, despite not looking for a knockout bullish punch for silver, it found me. This new factor just about knocked my socks off.

Since I’m sensitive to having original research confiscated by others without proper credit, I want to be clear that the source of this new bullish finding is my good friend Izzy Friedman. Simply put, Friedman’s Theory holds that, on a relative and absolute basis, there is less silver remaining underground than any other important metal. There just isn’t that much left anymore. If he is correct, it should make you run, not walk, to buy silver. Because that would mean that not only are we running out of above ground silver, we are also running out of silver below ground (in the earth’s crust) much sooner than anyone has imagined.


So profound is Friedman’s finding that I dismissed it at first, yet given my respect for the man, I investigated his claim. I went to the mineral surveys of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and reviewed their latest studies on the major metals for 2004.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/

The following table reflects their information. I was looking for how many years of each metal remained to be mined. I’ve divided current annual world production into known world reserves (reserves that are proven). I’ve also divided annual production into the much larger resource base, which is the amount of silver thought to still exist in the earth. I’ve rounded the numbers in some instances to keep it simple.


I chose the statistics from the USGS because they are comprehensive and free of any known bias. It certainly is not my intention to mislead anyone or distort the information. I believe the USGS statistics to be generally accurate. Any other sources I checked all confirmed the USGS data.

Commodity Production Reserves Resource Base Reserves Resource Base

(………Metric Tons………..) (… .Years Remaining…)

Aluminum 30 million unlimited unlimited 100+ 100+

Copper 14 million 470 million 940 million 33+ 67+

Lead 2.6 million 67 million 140 million 23 48

Nickel 1.4 million 62 million 140 million 44 100

Zinc 8.5 million 220 million 460 million 26 54

Silver 20,000 270,000 570,000 14 29

Gold 2600 43,000 89,000 17 34

PGM 350 70,000 80,000 200 200+

(Platinum+Paladium)

(A couple of notes on the data. The USGS considers the raw material needed for aluminum, bauxite, to be

[stolwyk]

Misc, you are a liar.

Instead of persecuting me about something which is not your's or ST's concern and happened a long time ago, why don't you post something more in keeping with this topic.

Much more satisfying than stalking people and making a nuisance of yourself.

And that is also what the readers want.

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

Yeah - but past midnight on a Sunday night/Monday morning? That's really officious sorta work by a group of mods not really known for being on the ball even in business hours. Then he/she's straight back on with a new nic? There are some real sharks on HC, and a lot of 'em seem to be working either in a team/multiple nic situation. Still, its often very humorous - except when you realise there's some poor mug who's probably listened to the 'advice' and is getting singed by it.

Edit: reply to Gerry's statement about HC above.

[stolwyk]

I know of a pack on ST who work together but against one person. Haven't come across this on HC.

I know one here posting with 2 aliases and that person has had that alias for about 2 years.

Someone got banned here not long ago and is back again under a different alias.

Not that I care but remember that a site which is massive has correspondingly more problems too.

And if you check HC now, the ASX-GENERAL site, you will find me active trying to make certain people move to the "General" site.

HC should look into that and I shall contact them. There are no Moderators except for that one person who doesn't spent enough time there.
But the same applies to ST.

Some people by colluding and attacking a person, should be dealt with.
Why are they not?

Gerry they need to goto the heart of the problem not those trying to nulify it effects. In other words ramping camoflauged as information posts by you.

[stolwyk]

E,
You got it wrong as usual,

ST has certain rules you and I are asked to sign. You have signed those.

As long as one carries out those rules, ST is happy.

I do carry out those rules.

You are substituting for ST and make up your own rules. Unfortunately, you don't and won't understand these are not ST's rules.

You go much further than that and like to exercise some power as well, which you, being a light weight don't have:

Being a member of Miner's pack you are actively ruining this site and trying to marginalize me by posting ridiculous messages.

You have posted 26 times on this thread and not one post refers to the prescribed topic.

Of course you don't care but the Readers will know what a repulsive character you really are.

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

Yeah, but H9/C9 hasn't indulged in any unsavoury pumping of stocks as far as I've read. He maybe guilty of baiting Belgarion mercilessly - but that's about it.

Gerry I really wonder about the history to the whole Gerry the Ramper thing - to the extent that I don't really want to know about it. Frankly I don't think you're gonna shake the tag - but who cares too much anyway? This is just an internet forum. Also think if you're gonna try to get the 'pack' banned from ST you're pushing poop uphill in a big fashion. As for them being 'dealt' with - what exactly did you have in mind? The Chinese Water Torture? The Medieval Rack? Dip them in Honey and Feed Them to Lesbian Ants? Hung Drawn and Quatered? Chow for the Lions?

Really, Gerry, it aint worth you busting your boiler over - you're just gonna have to face the fact that you'll be coping this on ST while ever you're here. Maybe you should give back as good as you get instead of bit of a moaning tit about it all. Come up with some imaginative lines or something. Why not just take it all as a farce and start a "Gerry's Ramping Thread" or something - then your detractors will have no complaints about what's written therein. Think half the reason you cop it is because you're so deadly serious about everything. Have to admit you're a ST character - and the site wouldn't be the same without you and the 'pack' that follows you around. But sometimes I would like to log on and see something different from "Whoa is me, whoa is me - the Gerry police are bad to me."

As for HC - why do you love the place so much? Way too much crapola - really its only worth is as a bit of a laugh now and then. Sure there are some good posters - but they are few and far between.

Anyway, that's my spiel on the whole Gerry the Ramper thing. It's given me an idea - think I'll start my own dedicated ramping thread at some stage: "Packers Picks: A Peck of Pickled Punts. Pudenda Plays to leave your bank account Plucked. Where's your Pesos Packers Picks Pecked? Picker Packed into Packers Pack. You have been Pucked by a Peck of Packers Picks. Please Pick Packers Picks so Packer's Pack breaks his back." ;)

[stolwyk]

POK,

One shouldn't name a person as I may be talking about someone else. In any case I only responded to your treatment of HC.

Remember your anguish about being called David/Rob? (16 Oct)
And this parag. from me:

"POK, I have always found your style to be quite different than Rob's, so I hope that nonsense talk about you two being the same person, can stop".

And it did.

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

Fair reply, Gerry. Wasn't really anguish though - more along the lines of a bull seeing a red rag - and also because there was a few laughs in it. Think it stopped because the person who started it began to see the folly in it, and really for no other reason. I'd like to see the reason why that happened was because of my own intervention if anything - if you'll read back over that particular thread you may see that. And since then I certainly haven't provoked her, and she aint provoked me and we're both as sweet as pie. So from then to now it hasn't gone on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on...............and on. As I said I really have to wonder about the history of the whole thing - I know the 'Gerry Cops' value their time and couldn't be ar sed to post about you if they didn't think it worth their while - so what did you do to stir them up in the first place? Whatever it was it must o' been pretty bad - and I can tell you your reputation is spreading. I hear there are certain states in Australia where Mums and Dads tell their kids stories about "Big Bad Stolwyk - you be good now, else the Big Bad Stolwyk is gonna get your money and burn it! You won't be left with a brass razoo! You watch out! (kids gasp!) He's got big long fangs that come way down to here - and he's always looking for ways to get at your money!! And he lives in the computer! All you'll be left with is your underpants - sometimes not even them - as the Big Bad Stolwyk rides off into the distance with all your Money and Valuables!! And he'll be laughing, laughing like a deranged maniac! I can tell you! You be good kids, or the Big Bad Stolwyk is gonna get ya!" Frankly, I've been attempting to cultivate a reputation as a bad ass mutha and here you are double my age and you've gorn and done it 10 times better than me! What's your secret? Care to pass some tips on to the next generation?

So...whadya think of my Packers Ramping Thread? Do think it will have any legs? Got any suggestions for it? You could be shorting some of the companies on this thread if gold stays as crook as its looking. Should I ramp some of them on my "Packers Picks"?

[stolwyk]

I did note you have become Miner's PR.

As to my reputation, that is solid no matter how you like to describe it.

The ST site is only very small but the herd effect can be strong. So the last thing to do is to take much notice of the opinion of a few posters of Miner's pack.

The readership tells all; even if some don't post on my threads (Perhaps for fear they get told off as Mick 100 was-the Miner's pack uses every marginalizing tool), the readership is good.

And it is excellent on HotCopper with its much greater dissemination power. Regardless of what you say, ST people get much info from there (while condemming it) but the decision makers do read it. It needs a good clean up.

But IMHO, you already are a ramper of some reknown, why start a thread? Still, humour can attract readers.


Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

?! Dude - you've really got to calm down a bit. I'm not Miner's P.R. at all! Don't even know where he lives or what he looks like! As for being a ramper...well, I really shouldn't be the judge of that - so if that's your opinion of me, well, I guess that's how it is. A humble Kidney can't aspire to too much, after all. Frankly I really have no idea if you are a ramper or not - certainly other people seem to think so - all I'm saying is that it really don't matter too much, as long as you are happy with yourself and having a bit of a laugh - but I don't think that's the case to be honest. I certainly read HotCopper - but I don't believe half of what I read on there, and believe less then some of that.

I think you should perhaps reflect on whether someone who calls themselves "Packersoldkidney" could be guilty of ramping or not. (!)

[Misc]

Gerry , cant anwer the question can you ???
Shall I continue ????? You were banned for .............. ???

Now 'Gerry' ..... despite your claims that you post under your real name ..a quick serch reveals that there is no such person as 'Gerry Stolwyck' in NZ who has :
- Been a Company Director
- Been registered on an electoral roll
- Held a position of any sort
- Or even owns a phone !

So ...... who are you 'Gerry' and why are you the only regular poster in Australasia to have been anned from a popular share chatsite ??

I must be bored

misc

[stolwyk]

Misc,

You don't need to know as I already dealt with it before.

You wrote: "So ...... who are you 'Gerry' and why are you the only regular poster in Australasia to have been banned from a popular share chatsite ??"

Prove that; you can't and you are a liar. Why don't you put out a decent post instead?

[Packersoldkidney]

Jeezus, Gerry. Have you just been rumbled? Or do you have a plausible explanation? I reckon you are a German war criminal on the lam from Mossad, or maybe you're not male at all? Maybe Stolwyk is your maiden name, and you've since married to John Smith, to whom you bore 3 kids. Maybe this is where the mix up has come in, as the family calls you 'Gerry' short for Geraldine, but in the phone book you are Geraldine Smith.

[stolwyk]

POK,

I am referring to page 12, date 3/1, time 2.26 pm, where an important question from Mick100 to Miner is answered by you.

Let me withdraw that term "Miner's PR" and suggest you were answering for him. Perhaps you just wanted to help.

Gerry

[Misc]

Packersoldkidney ... thats one of funniest posts I've seen in a while hehhehehehe.
Now 'Gerry' ... are you now saying you were not banned from Ozestock ?
After we get that straight we'll start on the identity issue LOL

misc (yawn)

[Packersoldkidney]

No worries. As I said, I haven't met Miner face to face - it seems to me you think there is some sort of collusion/conspiracy going on to 'get' at you - it just aint happening. Can assure you from my end the only real purpose I have on here is to have a bit of a laugh, and secondarily to read about co's that I might sink my hard-earned into.

[Packersoldkidney]

quote:Originally posted by Misc



misc (yawn)


Getting that way myself, Misc. I'm off. Previous post was in reply to Gerry's post.

[stolwyk]

POK,

You said: "I certainly read HotCopper - but I don't believe half of what I read on there, and believe less then some of that".

Good, if you admit to reading HC then it must be worth it as otherwise you wouldn't go back there. Thanks for that.

I am not suggesting that everything at HC is ok.

Looking for some tips there? It is after all the place where shares are often named first.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Misc,

Kid,

You are wasting a lot of space here. You are yapping like a fox terrier trying to score points.

Go over the thread and read an answer from me to Enigma. Since he dropped that query, I don't need to answer you.

No, you won't be the inquisition; why don't you write a decent post instead.

[Packersoldkidney]

Goddammit! Couldn't help myself. Yeah - HC's a good place to work out what stocks to avoid, and they also come up with a few gems from time to time. But I can tell you the real money aint being made by people who read H.C. thinking they're gonna get 'tips' off it. The real money is made trading wise either by people who don't post on HC at all, or who post on HC 'giving' tips to other people. There are precious few on HC who are making money off tips they got off HC - and that's the plain truth. For a person of indeterminate gender of your age you should have learned by now that people who 'want' to 'share the wealth' so to speak in a public forum are virtually non-existent. I say virtually because there are some out there who are willing to assist and 'share the wealth' - but unfortunately their existence is used by the great number of sharks who can smell 'newbie' blood a mile off. Sounds cynical, but unfortunately its reality.

[OneUp]

Stolwyk, I am relatively new to the this whole internet forum thing. I read about sharetrader in a column by the Herald on the Access Brokerage collapse a a couple of months ago. Have found a lot of interesting ideas on this site to investigate further. Also, thanks to your mentioning of hotcopper (which I had never heard of prior) I decided to check it out. Have found that the overall quality of posts and debate over there is not the highest, with most resorting to petty insults (even worse than this site!). However, I have found it useful to help judge the "pulse" of the masses and current sentiment towards stocks I am looking at buying. That is, if a stock is being ramped then avoid like the plague. And I got a particular gem one time when someone over there declared that HarvestRoad and Web Central Group (neither of whom I had heard of) were the two best stocks on the ASX, though as per usual they gave no reason. Have since purchased a decent number of WCG and the stock price has rocketed. So thanks for pointing out hotcopper to readers, Gerry.

[stolwyk]

Thanks for that POK.

You wrote:
"Goddammit! Couldn't help myself. Yeah - HC's a good place to work out what stocks to avoid, and they also come up with a few gems from time to time".

Now you say: "There are precious few on HC who are making money off tips they got off HC - and that's the plain truth".

That you need to prove. Seems you think it is worth visiting it.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Thanks OneUp,

All sites have pluses and minuses.

The real secret of HC is the conveyor belt system. It is the best I have seen. Some 50 posts on each page but they just show the topic, not the content.

So, you can scan some 150 or more posts in about 5 minutes without reading them.

And of course they are massive sites.

We do have a lot of lurkers there as well and if you want your posts become known quickly, that is the place to go.

Thanks for your informative post,

Gerry

[stolwyk]

The overall market is now waiting for the US employment report on Friday; it is at a stage where it drifts from one report to another: the market is indecisive. Dow down 33 points.

Interesting bit about Iraq (Thanks DUB):
The war in Iraq: US100 mill. wanted:
Extract: "Both expect the proposal to come as a "supplemental" spending request, a move that would keep it out of the budget Bush will submit in February.

The White House budget office declined to comment on the number. "It's too early to say what our needs will be," spokesman Chad Kolton said. He said the Iraq request is being kept out of the budget to provide time to get a more accurate cost estimate and to make it easier to reduce funding when U.S. troops are eventually withdrawn".

This $US 100 bill for the war in Iraq to be asked for won't be part of the Annual budget and the Democrats don't like it.



The Shiites in Iraq, allies from IRAN, plan to ultimately establish an Islamist state in Iraq. They are in favour of elections. So is IRAN.

The Sunnis are not happy and many have withdrawn from the elections to come. Prepare for flashpoints and increasing interest in the oils from Saudi and Iraq.

There is also the important Kurds group in the North. The 3 groups are an explosive mixture.
_____________________________

The USD has settled down: 82.5 and gold has come back a bit: 426.4 (-0.5). Silver 6.50

The EURO is stable at 1.327 (-0.004)

JAP 104.1 (-0.25) Oil 43.45


Gerry
A rather long but interesting article about the Shiites:
http://www.bostonreview.net/BR28.5/cole.html

Gerry Still talking to yourself. This is the first sign of madness.

Misc certainly would like to here more about why Gerry was banned.

[miner]

Hell you still harping on Gerry,HC is well known as ramper central,and you are well known as a ramper,have come across people mentioning your ramping all over the net over the years.

Is it worth it Gerry you get sh*t for your ramping everywhere you go,are up all hours day and night posting ramps or defending yourself in your arrogant style when people pull you up for ramping?????.

You can make money without coning people out of there's in this game so you must be a sad lonely old man with nothing else to do,who's only friend is his computer or just nasty,as no one in there right mind would do what you do.

Turn your PC off and start spending some of that money you must??? have been making and enjoy life.

Cheers
Miner

[Packersoldkidney]

Miner - what are you doing here? All your correspondence has to go through the P.R. department first. Naughty, naughty.

[stolwyk]

The market is pretty static at the moment. Gold is $426.5

Silver Investors would do well to keep an eye on this site:
http://www.silver-investor.com/DailyUpdate.htm#


Feature story:
Where Will Aussie Juniors Go In 2005.
http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=270


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[whiteheron]

stolwyk

Tell me man , do you ever sleep ???

[stolwyk]

Miner,

How sad that your posts all sound the same. Flaming alone is not enough, you know.

You posted 33 times on this thread and not one post discusses the prescribed topic. Like Enigma, many of your posts don't refer to ramping but are solely designed to ruin this thread. How sad!

And you are encouraging others to do the same-How irresponsible, not the halmark of a leader, I am afraid.

Also pace yourself as I shall be here for quite some time, of course.

Readers like this thread, so who cares?

So, you think I made all that noise to get rid of you? Wrong thinking. I was interested to get a decent record of how the Miner's pack behaves, on one thread. So Readers know.

I think it was very successful; sorry Readers.

Miner, you don't think ahead because the comments from your dogpack keeps driving this thread to the top of the topics.

Not a nice thing to do when others want that position as well. I think you need to take the blame for that. But of course, you don't care.

What happens is that you are driving away posters who are fed up with this treatment. But that is not new as your pack has been attacking me for 2 years now and obviously posters get fed up.

Keep on flaming.

Gerry

[pago]

hi,gerry,do you have any views on laf,lafayette mining in the phillippines.a gold mining junior about to start production in 2005.seems well organised and funded,chasing multi minerals,with possible large growth.risks are political,not evident right now.maybe too many shares for a big share price leap until 2006.laf[oz]. cheers pago.

[stolwyk]

Hi Pago,
I'll have a look at it tomorrow. Suggest you keep watching this thread. In the past, I kept away from there but as you say, the risk is smaller now.

At the moment the USD Index is 83.06 (+0.49) thus is rising fast. Some significant realignment is taking place with Euro at 1.3192 (-0.0087) and gold at 425.75 (-15 cents).

If I were in your position, I'll wait for the next gold uptrend as clearly the USD is not settling. Clive Maund thinks the USD may go as high as 85 and this would affect the gold price if this occurred.

On the other hand, if the share price is far too low it may disregard this. Suggest you check.

Please contact: stolwyk@hotmail.com
And I'll give you a short resume when ready.

As always, I am not advising and you decide.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Gerry you complain about Flaming from other people. But your ramping posts are the bigest flamers of the lot, take a look at your total post count. Of which very few would be worth reading. Practice what you preach. You can make a small addition as sugested before and have this thread all to yourself.

[Misc]

Enigma , Gerry is well lampooned and despised on the HC site . Several stoushes with respected posters such as Alpha Centurian , and an incident where he was 'outed' for colluding with other posters (some of his origin) have left his reputation at HC similar to that on this site.
OzeStock banned him , now , that doesnt happen very often on that site , if at all..... I dont exactly know why , save for the dishonesty part . Tracker maybe able to tell you about it in more detail I think.
You cannot continue to pump/dump rubbish like ASC / LUM etc and get away with it , I feel sorry for those that post on this thread thanking 'Gerry' ..... if in fact they are real posters.

Finally , no one should be believe for 1 secong that Gerry Stolwyck is his real name ......... it simply is not true.

Thankfully most readers here are 'Gerry Baiters' .. like me ! No one else gives a toss for his cut/paste , pied piper , sermons LOL

'Gerry' get a life!!!!!!!

misc

[Packersoldkidney]

Do ya reckon its the one person, Misc? His post count is pretty amazing on whatever site he's on. Could be a couple of people doing tag team at the old folks home - sorta in a shift situation. Or maybe it is the one person and he's taking a double dose of viagra or something? Almost 5 posts a day is really good going, especially when you consider some of the 'detail' in the posts.

'Gerry', what's your secret? Is it souped up pills or do you have a double or three to help you out?

[stolwyk]

Hi PAK,

No, I have a mountain bike and use it frequently. I own a big house with a large tree and shrub garden; I mow my own lawns and look after the house upkeep.

I am physically fit, in case you wonder. Did some heavy pruning this year.

I was born on a large farm so like some others on this street, we don't believe in "old folks homes".

Beautiful vistas here and the bush isn't too far away. A very safe and fine area. Trees and birds everywhere.

So why settle for something else?

I write my own posts.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

MISC,

You wrote:

"Enigma , Gerry is well lampooned and despised on the HC site . Several stoushes with respected posters such as Alpha Centurian , and an incident where he was 'outed' for colluding with other posters (some of his origin) have left his reputation at HC similar to that on this site".

Comment: I wasn't the only one who had some "chats" with Alpha; come to think of it that was quite some time ago.

Please show that my reputation at HC is similar to this site.


You said: "and an incident where he was 'outed' for colluding with other posters (some of his origin) have left his reputation at HC similar to that on this site".

Please show the evidence now.


Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Hi PAK,

No, I have a mountain bike and use it frequently. I own a big house with a large tree and shrub garden; I mow my own lawns and look after the house upkeep.

I am physically fit, in case you wonder. Did some heavy pruning this year.

I was born on a large farm so like some others on this street, we don't believe in "old folks homes".

Beautiful vistas here and the bush isn't too far away. A very safe and fine area. Trees and birds everywhere.

So why settle for something else?

I write my own posts.

Gerry


OK, Gerry.

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

... take a look at your total post count. Of which very few would be worth reading.


One post certainly worth reading was Stolwyk's call on Senetas (SEN) that it was due for a correction on the very day that it ended its great bull run. Timing was impeccable. As a then Senetas holder that post was extremely helpful.

A generic question - how is it possible for anyone to ramp gold with any success? Surely one poster on sharetrader cannot move the price of gold. If someone's strategy is to ramp, then wouldn't they buy some 1c stock with a market cap of $2 million and make a go of it?

[stolwyk]

Thanks OneUp,

We are dealing with a badly led malicious mob here. Yes, it is a vicious pack.


Gerry

[mercury]

Don't let people get you down too much. Winners are grinners they say.
Merc

[nelehdine]

Is gold in danger of falling below $400 Gerry if the USD climbs to say 1.20 vs the Euro. I see its below .70 vs the Kiwi this a.m. !!

Disc: hold NCM

[stolwyk]

Hi Nel,

Clive Maund, a very respected TA person said on 20 Dec that we would either hit USD Index 80 or it may rebound to 85 with gold to 410.

Here is his latest article:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68




Here is a market update:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=3NTUN05M1QPIACRBAE0CF EY?type=businessNews&storyID=7256493

We are now waiting for the important Employment situation tonight.

LATEST UPDATE:

JAP rose to 105.08 (+1.17) while the USD Index rose 0.64 to 83.16

Euro lost 0.0102 to 1.3175 while Gold lost $4.40 to $421.50 Silver: 6.42
Oil is strong at 45.48 (+2.09).

Gerry

[Misc]

Do you deny you colluded with other posters to buy stock and team-ramp Stolwyck ? You did get sprung on HC .... have you forgotten ? Should I ask Alpha , Hilldweller etc to refresh your memory ?

misc

[stolwyk]

Misc,
This gang consisted of about 6 people including one woman. I do know a few other names as well.

They accused me of colluding with the aim of ramping ASC.

But they didn't do their homework. And I explained it to them. What happened was because ASC had a lot of different options, people kept asking about their value and other technical matters concerned with ASC. It was time consuming.

I suggested that three of us discuss this matter on the following weekend and so we did. The reason was there wouldn't be anyone around so we could get a clear set of connecting posts. (One of us valued the options)

I then wrote a master post which summarized the other posts and the whole went into the study thread which was then accessable to the public.

I showed to the gang the Ozestock posts concerned and their case collapsed. Someone had led them up the garden path.

Unfortunately, the HC thread discussing all this was deleted:
___________________________________________

Subject erasing of threads--interesting.
Posted 21/04/04 11:21 - 90 reads
Posted by stolwyk
Post #277892 - start of thread - splitview

As posters know the events over the last few days were somewhat disturbing.

As a consequence HotCoper erased a number of threads; these were:

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=93684&sym=LUM&MSGNO=275017#275017

The "main" thread where a number of posters accused me of organizing a ramping session: it failed badly and the arguments were demolished. It had over 425 reads.
Who benefitted by erasing this thread?
___________________________________________

Comment: And now I don't think that the Ozestock posts can be found because of a new system.

However, I called the members of the gang one by one except for one and gave them a talking to.

Example:
______________________________

re: goblins investment strategy- you must read and
Posted 14/06/04 13:08 - 141 reads
Posted by stolwyk
Post #304730 - in reply to msg. #304716 - splitview

Yes, XXX

You were part of a gang which accused me of organizing a session with others to discuss multiple ramping techniques to be used on ASC.

You lost out and so did the others.

So, I got stuck into you about it and you resented that so much that quite a few of your posts instead of being used on stocks are being spent on me.

I feel sorry for you.
__________________________

Comment: I have struck out the name. There must be similar posts on other threads which I didn't keep. Suggest you look for them around the 14 June 2004 date.

It does show that whoever fed you that info didn't have a clue what it was all about.

I am afraid that your accusation is false, stalker.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Misc,

You told me that "my reputation at HC is similar to this site".

Rather than sidestepping it, please prove that now.

Gerry

[miner]

Pull the other one Gerry you ramped the cr*p out of ASC,remember the guess the price competition you started on ozestock etc,we saw you do it so deny it all you like but as you know we know your game and how you play it,including your I'm innocent posts.

As for me being the leader of the pack and emailing others,a sad old man like you does that (for ramping) but I've got much better things to do,all it is Gerry is a few people that can be bothered pulling you up on your ramping after watching years of it,so as hopefully a few greenies will be spared the pain of you reliving them of there money.

[stolwyk]

Miner,
Misc accused me of something and it is not true. No amount of barbed arrows from you makes up for that.

Why don't you as Top dog of your pack, keep yourself and the other dogs in check. Unfortunately there is no leader.

You wrote: "As for me being the leader of the pack and emailing others,a sad old man like you does that (for ramping) but I've got much better things to do".

No, you don't have better things to do. You are too keen posting useless messages here and you have been doing that for years. You seem to think that a patronizing flaming tone may perhaps fill the void; unfortunately, you are too arrogant but you love it.

33 posts of yours on this site and not one complies with the Topic. Many of your posts don't even refer to ramping but are designed to marginalize me. Keep trying devious malicious old man but you won't succeed.

You have to be totally irresponsible to do that.

Still, that is you, you don't care. Try that on HCopper, stalker, and you won't last long.

You have been identified as a liar a few times so if you tell the Readers that you don't organize attacks against me at times, then nobody will believe you, disgusting little man:

I have shown examples where your malice overtakes compassion and you told me I was ramping but I was not. What a liar!

Shame!

Gerry

Gerry you have far more than double the number of usless posts on this thread than any one else. And all your denials will not convinces us that where there is smoke there is not a fire. Fortunate is it not that so many threads and posts are deleted or edited Gerry.

[miner]

When Gerry first started posting on ST I used to watch him do one of his ramping tricks before open which was to edit one or more threads of shares he was ramping so as to get them to the top so anyone looking at ST before open would see them.

So one morning I thought I would see how many times he would edit a certain thread,it was about half an hour to open when he did the first edit so I posted on a thread above it,then Gerry edited the same thread,to get back to the top,to cut a long story short he edited the same thread 4 times by which time it was open.

Dodgy enough in itself but even more so as the ONLY thing he changed in those 4 edits of the SAME thread was the punctuation NOTHING else.

So this is but one example of Gerry at work,so to those who still think he does endless posts at all hours of the day and night out of the goodness of his heart think again.

Due to the above etc is why I know Gerry's game,but also know that some others don't,so when can be bothered make them aware of his game in the hope that they will wise up to him before it costs them,much the same as when people post saying the directors are dodgy or the numbers don't add up etc.

[stolwyk]

I won't bother talking too much to a lightweight who hasn't got a clue what is in my posts. You too start posting according to the Topic.

No need to follow up Miner, of course. I am sure that top dog can take care of himself without any assistance from a fox terrier.

Isn't it lovely misusing your Alias and attack in a pack? Yes, you always had that in you, I suppose.

You also post messages designed to marginalize me instead of referring to any rampng.

[stolwyk]

I admire your tale, Miner but of course it is always a lie coming from you. Put it this way, I wouldn't do it intentially, nervous little man. You are always good at fabricating and twisting the truth, don't you.

Keep talking all the BS you must but remember, the Reader is not stupid; if I give them hard facts, they'll take notice, alright.

And of course, you two look good fighting as a pack.

I would feel ashamed doing that, but in your case, Miner, the end justifies the means, doesn't? Who cares, after all you both have protective Aliases and I can understand that you both feel more brave than being on your own.

It is the mob behaviour of you two, isn't it. The illegal use of an alias for attack purposes.

I wonder if both of you were school bullies in your youth?

[miner]

Watched you do that trick heaps of times on this site and ozestock Gerry,but thought on that morning would do a little test just to see how many times you would edit the same post for punctuation,funny how the edits stopped after open ay?.

Gerry it doesn't matter at all what name you post under,know one knows you from a bar of soap anyway,for all we know you aren't even Gerry Stolwk.

Anyway back to work next week after a choice holiday(you should have done the same Gerry as man you need one) so will leave you to it as everything you do is negative and it pays to keep distractions at a minimum and stay positive when trading,no doubt I would have been banned though ay Gerry?,when I don't post.

Get a life before it's to late old boy,catch ya[:X].

Cheers
Miner

[tracker]

ok ok i wanna know gerry am i the woman you are refering to
tracker

[stolwyk]

Miner,
You said: "Watched you do that trick heaps of times on this site and ozestock Gerry,but thought on that morning would do a little test just to see how many times"

Comment: Now that is a real lie as Ozestock posts can't be edited; once posted, they can't be shifted. So much for all your time spent on lies. You overdid it that time.

You said: "Gerry it doesn't matter at all what name you post under,know one knows you from a bar of soap anyway,for all we know you aren't even Gerry Stolwk".

Another malicious barb well expected. Do you want a bet that my posts don't come from the real identity "Stolwyk" while I say they do?. There you are, the chance of a life time. Needs to be a heavy bet of course. I don't play for marbles.

Boy, are you getting yourself in a mess. You'd better go to bed; this is not your night.

[stolwyk]

Tonight's US employment data is important as it may affect the USD and Gold.

Gold is 422.7 (+1.40) at the moment; the USD fell 0.23 to 82.92

Here is a good read for Silver Investors (Thanks Dub):
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0106.html

Be careful

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

Who said you were the woman? The incident happened 2.7 years ago and I wasn't happy that Misc went back that far, even referring to people.
Suggest you have a talk with him.

However, I have more evidence as to the circumstances but at this stage can't be bothered unless he insists.


Cheers,

Gerry

Gerry your mistakes will stick with you for the rest of your life. 2.5 years a mere speck in time. By the way are you still ramping Lang corporation now Patricks somewhere. I can reply to your insulting rubbish posts as well as your ramps. Please tell everbody why it was suggested politely on sharetrader that you confine your posting to the learning to invest board.

[stolwyk]

Kid,

That matter of 2.5 years doesn't even concern you; stop preaching.

You said: "Please tell everbody why it was suggested politely on sharetrader that you confine your posting to the learning to invest board".

A new one to me kid, however both you and Miner are liars anyway.

Goodnight kid;

You should have been in bed long ago.

Gerry

[miner]

One last one as you seem a tad confused old boy,on ozestock as you know you just did your endless post thing one after the other to keep it at the top of the "recent messages" which also helped keep it on the "most active boards",which you often mentioned when one of your ramped shares was on it.

Then you found ST yippee I here you say as they have an edit button much easier,just take away a full stop hit edit and whullar back to the top she goes ,next edit just put the full stop back.

So same thing as you know gerry,just ST easier to do,so didnt overdo anything,especially as that is but one of your tricks that I have seen you use for your ramping,you need some new tricks old boy not to mention a lot of work on your reply's as time and time again you shoot yourself in the foot.

The morning I did that edit test I was sitting here thinking hell he wont edit the same one again surly,but yep you did 4 bl**dy times,had to laugh in the end,as have a few people that I have told the story to before now.

[stolwyk]

You have a lot of imagination but proof is required. You are confused. The strain is starting to tell: write properly so I can understand what you are talking about.

You wrote: "as have a few people that I have told the story to before now". Comment: Unfortunately, that is no evidence: telling people something means nothing.

I deal with hard facts, my boy, don't mess me about.

Your image on this thread has not improved.

The impression readers get is that they are dealing with an arrogant bully who needs support from other bullies to exist. Someone with devious and malicious intentions. Who lies at will while trying to marginalize me.

Someone who tries to present something possible as a fact. Not conforming with ST's rules and not posting according to the Topic.

Who doesn't care and is above the rules. Totally arrogant and is patronizing.

I notice that you won't be taking on a bet I offered: from me:

"Do you want a bet that my posts don't come from the real identity "Stolwyk" while I say they do?. There you are, the chance of a life time. Needs to be a heavy bet of course. I don't play for marbles"

Stop trying to score points referring to my life. It is clear that the word "Courtesy" is not found in your dictionary. My life is not your business.
______________________________________

There is some cleaning going on at HC and that will continue.

Take care that if you go there, you behave. We can do without your type there. We need productive posters, not devious trouble makers.

[Shamrock]

Oh dear. What a loser.

[stolwyk]

There were over 175k increase in Non-farm expected payrolls, however the increase was 157k and 144k of these are from the Service industries.

The interest rates may not be tightened as much as expected. The USD softened to 82.74 (-0.41) The Euro 1.32 (+ 0.0036)

That brought the slide of the gold price to a turnaround of $423.4 (+2.10). Silver: 6.51

Gerry

[nelehdine]

Downward slide resumes ... gold -2.90 , at 418.50 an UGLY week !!!!

[dingdong]

quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Downward slide resumes ... gold -2.90 , at 418.50 an UGLY week !!!!


Praise Allah, my stash of gold is still worth the same IN REAL MONEY as it was a week ago, a truly worthy effort. My 1% annual return still looks assured.

Who cares that gold's returns underperforms every other element on the periodic table. It has more groupies than any other metal and looks good on adornments that lavish my palaces.

[stolwyk]

Yes, the rise of the dollar could not be sustained, now $418.8 (-$2.50). Silver 6.43
Euro 1.3075 (-1.0107) That has come down some 5 cents lately and this is due to an anaemic EEC and initially too much money flowing into the Euro over too short a time. So a correction took place and took gold with it.

USD 83.59 (+0.46) Jap 104.92

Here is the letter from Paul van Eeden:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan072005.html

[stolwyk]

THE SITUATION iN IRAQ/SAUDI

This has worsened in Iraq with many Sunni having withdrawn from the coming election.

The Shiites, supported by IRAN are very keen on this election, but even if it were held, it would not solve some major issues.

They want to form an Islamist State akin to that in IRAN, but of course others don't want to.

Then, we have the Northern powerful tribes, the Kurds. These 3 parties are quite prepared to fight if their wishes are not complied with.
______________________________

The Shiites are using the US to execute their own plans, and the Sunnis are well aware of that.

It is quite possible that bloodshed along religious and territorial lines will occur with Iran taking part as well by supplying fighters and arms.

Meanwhile, I can't see Bin Laden having a holiday while this is going on. But it is important first to find out out if the Iraqi election will take place; if not, that will mean serious trouble for the US as their troops will remain pinned down there.

So the first objective is to make it difficult for an election to take place by disturbances and bloodshed. That is proceeding. Some election committees have been threatened and they have withdrawn.

Should the Shiites win very comfortably, then they may inially as the Government use the US troops while preparing their own army and then ask the US to leave.

Altogether, a convoluted and powerful explosive cocktail to be served in the next 12 months.

Add to that the increasing chance that oil refineries and/or oil platforms, the latter at a good distance from the coast and with little protection (An instrument guided small boat laden with explosives will do the trick), can be hit simultaneously and the supply of oil is severely interrupted with resultant higher pricing driving the US down.

_________________________________

SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO THE GOLD STOCK INVESTOR?

It is clear that Bin Laden can pursue many activities causing severe economic damage and it has been noted that he and Al Qaeda are more often mentioned now than in the past.

Indeed, the US economy and Al Qaeda are sometimes mentioned in the same sentence.

The Gold Investor knows that the USD will depend not only on the well being of the US economy but also on non-terrorism.

THESE ARE LINKED.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Still up to your old editing tricks to bring post to notice again. (ramping again)

[whiteheron]

Pago

There is a thread for LAF on this site
They also have a very good website , but I suppose that you know these things anyway

A company with excellent prospects I feel
Good price increase in the last few months and most likely will go somewhat higher when production has been going a while

Gerry , I am not trying to steal your thunder
Just a bit of ramping !!! (joke )

[stolwyk]

Enigma,

You wrote:
"Still up to your old editing tricks to bring post to notice again. (ramping again)".

Don't think so kid: that important post was written at 6.27 pm and editing was completed at 6.38 pm. During that time no other post was written so my post stayed at the top of the queue all the time.

It is you and Miner who ramp this thread by constant interjection. You are driving this thread to the top of all threads. So you are/have become rampers doing that.

And shame, you are writing posts which have nothing to do with the topic, that makes it worse, rampers! Why don't you give other posters a fair go by not making unnessary posts!

Gerry
My post about Iraq has over 100 readers on a very slack day on HCopper alone. More to come while overnight the foreigners (Asia etc) take over.

Gerry do the same by stopping your ramping. And there was one post ahead of it when I first read it.So you are up to your old tricks again. When you stop ramping there will be no need for these posts.

[stolwyk]

Enigma,

You wrote: "And there was one post ahead of it when I first read it. So you are up to your old tricks again"

Right, show me the post which was ahead of me the first time you read it. If you can't and I must say, you can't, then you are a liar.

My post was first published at 6.27 pm and the last edit was completed at 6.38.

There were no other posts produced in that time interval.

So, prove something for a change.


Gerry

[Shamrock]

Aren't the hydrangeas looking good Gerry?

[stolwyk]

They certainly do; the weather is perfect. I don't have any but my neighbour has got a few.

Thanks for reminding me. I must get some. Looking for more space now.


Gerry

Gerry if your parents are alive I would like to pay for a wedding ceremony for them.

[stolwyk]

Clive Maund, TA:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

The situation doesn't look that great at the moment.



One dozen silver investor mistakes:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kanarowski010705.html

[stolwyk]

Enigma:

You wrote:

"Gerry if your parents are alive I would like to pay for a wedding ceremony for them".

Comment: That is a shocker and merely shows that you are a malicious b.

Both are dead (I am nearly 77) and I don't think you ought to talk about dead people like that.

I have nothing against children being born out of wedlock. However, your remark indicates that you are a vicious and unbalanced creature.

Deposit $10,000 with your solicitor and I'll do the same with mine.

I'll get the documentation of my parents'wedding date and my birthdate. It so happens that they stayed in one place for a long time so it won't be too difficult to get that info.

Once I get that info, your solicitor sends me your 10,000.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Miner and Enigma,

Both of you doubt that I am posting under my own name. As to Miner, I suggested that we have a bet on this.

Enigma said: "You have yet to prove G Stolwyk is not an alias".

The quickest way to get this over with is for both of you to deposit say $5000 with your solicitors and I'll do the same with mine.

Once I have proven that I post under my real name "Stolwyk", your solicitors to send me your $5000 each.

Do not discard this post as I'll keep sending you reminders.


Gerry

Gerry I can be just as malicious at times as you are most of the time. No Gerry you keep asking for proof so we are now asking you to prove something to. I could sign this G Stolwyk it is just so easy.

[stolwyk]

However, I don't bring my parents into it as you do.

I did mention a few times that I posted under my own name. That was information but also a warning as under certain circumstances it can be used.

Your remark about my parents was slanderous. I am looking into this.
From now on, take extreme care as to what you write.

You post under an alias and are misusing this. You people have really no rights in a court. Even if I abused your alias, I am not abusing the real person behind it because I don't know your surname. It is true that you abused me, a real person and that will be taken into consideration. You ought to have known that "Stolwyk" is an unusual name not found on chatsites.
______________________________________

Previously, I told you, you were a liar because my post was first published at 6.27 pm and the last edit was completed at 6.38. You told me that was not so, but you couldn't prove it. So you became nasty, very nasty, actually.

Yes, your dog pack shows similar characteristics: malicious, vicious and professional flamers.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold: two steps forward…two steps back?:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/temple010705.html


Hamilton: tactical silver trends 2
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton010705.html

Gerry I did not dispute your times I said there was a post in the middle you have called me names and B's you don't like your own tactics returned do you. You will get treated like you act. And remember you have called me a liar amongst other things. Just because you have time to troll through the internet and search every web site others have a life to live. There are many that have mentioned your ramping. And yet you assume that everybody that posts against you is interconnected.

[stolwyk]

"Gerry I did not dispute your times I said there was a post in the middle you have.."

No, there wasn't a post in the middle. You are making one up. I asked you whose post it was and you can't tell me. There were about 3 edits from me and at no time was there another post to jump. As I said, you lied.

Now you said:
"Just because you have time to troll through the internet and search every web site others have a life to live".

A bit of venom there and has absolutely nothing to do with the matter I raised. Who are you to decide if I have a life? It is no use to score ponts or perhaps you need to, as you are so far behind.

Meanwhile not one post from you on the actual topic; that does show that rules don't mean anything to you.

[Misc]

Rules 'Gerry' ??? LOL

How can anyone take seriously anyone who has been banned from a major Oz sharesite for dishonesty and rule breaking ??

You have a hide like a rhino's **** ol boy LOL

Give up .... try bridge !

misc

[pago]

hi,guys,please,please,can we return to the land of toleration,this sounds like roadrage,there is a hugh intellect and info base on this site which benefits all,but these personal attacks demeans the imput and posters.please correct me if i am wrong,thats an invite,but i see this this forum as a venue for investers to share/exchange info/research on investments,please,please,can we focus on the task, cheers pago.

[Misc]

dago , I see you hale from Nicuragua ..... who owns the pub there now ??

misc

Gerry as the whole topic is a ramp by you I am certainly not going to help you.

[stolwyk]

So Misc,

You came up with that brilliant idea that I was in collusion for organizing a ramping session at Ozestock. That was not so and you shot yourself in the leg. So, you are a liar.

Worse still, you mentioned some names; that wasn't necessary. Did you ask them to use these names? No.

Then you were convinced that I didn't post under my real name. I noticed you dropped that one quickly too.

Then you said I am as popular on HC as I am at ST. Suggest you prove that or otherwise stop making sweeping statements.
______________________________

And now you are ramping:

Posted - 08/01/2005 : 12:59:30 PM

Good call etrader , I hold these as well as NEO.

When the forward drilling/development plans at SE Lost Hills (Jack Hamar) are released on Monday you can expect a further re-rating imo.

Cheers

misc
____________________________________

Comment: You can write imo. but it is still a ramp. I wonder why Enigma, one of your mates didn't draw your attention to that?



Now you say that posters were rarely banned from Ozerstock. That is not true. LOK had their problems and a few were banned from there for starters.



You also said I was banned from Ozestock for dishonesty. So what is it?

[stolwyk]

Market comment:
http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/markets/


Richebacher is a powerful and very well known writer:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/richebacher010805.html

"It is typically argued that the U.S. economy is importing too much in comparison to exports. Superficially, that is true. Yet on closer look, it is a mistaken perception. Compared to other industrialized countries, U.S. imports are very low as a ratio of GDP.

The true key problem is abysmally low goods exports, accounting lately for barely 7% of nominal GDP. This compares, by the way, with a German goods export ratio of 35% of GDP".

Gerry, Misc and others make comments you may think of as ramping but do not try and disguise their comments or in your opinion ramps as study posts. Also they not reapeated time & time again like your suposedly study or imformation posts.

[stolwyk]

Enigma,

I asked you to write posts according to the Topic.

Your answer: "Gerry as the whole topic is a ramp by you I am certainly not going to help you".

I see, the Topic is not always an easy one and you don't understand it.

Gerry the topic is a big ramp by you. So I am addressing the topic, not the silly heading you put on it. So what about you addressing the actual topic. Apparantly you don't understand ramping could be considered by some people to be fraud. Are you a Fraud opperating under an alias. Some posters here say that they cannot find any trace of you in NZ.

[stolwyk]

I'll may give my phone number to a trusted person (No, it is not you).
The last thing I want is people like you handing out phone numbers.

I'll try Dimebag. He should be able to certify that I am G. Stolwyk.

Meanwhile get treated for ramper paranoia.

[Capitalist]

Right Enigma. Gold is crap and is for knuckle dragging neanderthals. I prefer conch shells or sheep skins. Idiots forget the Fed has learned a thing or two over the years. Fiat money is here to stay.

Stolwyk is a maggot who pretended to be my friend, but soon dug up things I said 2 years ago to try to discredit me when I disagreed with him. Faux civility and no gentleman.

[Mick100]

"Stolwyk is a maggot"

And i guess your still wondering why myself and many others on this forum have had a guts full of you cap.

You are a nasty peice of work

**** OFF Cap, and don't come back.


Mick

[Capitalist]

Yes Stolwyk. You suck donkey ass and everyone knows it. You don't fool anyone and you know nothing. I picked GCL remember. Everyone knows you are Stolwyk. What outrages me is that you made people think you were my GB *spit*

[Baa_Baa]

This thread is hilarious!

You'd all qualify instantly for a Kitco (K1) handle because the only material posted here is pillaged from other sources, or is woulda/coulda/shoulda/mighta and/or is outright slagging of other posters. Excellent stuf, keep it up, or better still, sock it to me too, but first, here's some crap you can pick on; (i.e. not original, but written coloquially as if to make it appear original).

Gold is an inert metal just like the US Feral Reserve morons who're single handedly, and successfully, exporting all their gross monetary inflation arising from generations of fiscal imprudence to our sucker countries RB's and CB's, and we're all lapping it up like it's the last suppper. And it probably is.

ROTFLMAO. Talk about precious! Bring it on! Ho ho ho ho! :D

[stolwyk]

CAP,

Now we are in trouble with yet another pack member added to this thread. To really ruin it, get Cap because she is good at telling tales:

You said:
"Stolwyk is a maggot who pretended to be my friend, but soon dug up things I said 2 years ago to try to discredit me when I disagreed with him. Faux civility and no gentleman".

Comment: And what was all that about? Can't remember anything about that. Tell us all about it! I never pretend to be someone's friend actually. And I don't think it takes much to be a gentleman with you around!

You wrote: "What outrages me is that you made people think you were my GB *spit*.

Please explain. And don't forget to take the right tablets next time.

Why not return to the site: "Off-market discussion". There you don't have to know much and you can abuse people as much as you like.

Gerry

[Mick100]

"Why not return to the site: "Off-market discussion". There you don't have to know much and you can abuse people as much as you like."


=======================


I'll second that Gerry




Mick

[Capitalist]

RIGHT STOLWYK/MICK You are a fool. I am not so low as to dig up email in which I supported you in ramping accusations and you threw them back in my face. Anyhooooo.... you are a loser.

Bad karma dude. No-one takes any notice of you.Anyway I prefer to discuss with other Americans who don't have the KKK/anti-semitic tendencies that you exhibit.

RUTH-- remember Auschwitz- 60th anniversary of its liberation 27/1 old man.

[stolwyk]

Cap,

I was a messenger of the Underground during the war. You were not in any war. I was in 2.

Now, how about proving your accusations?

Are you on drugs at the moment?

Why talk about GCL? I don't have any and didn't remember that you introduced it. What date was that and I'll check HotCopper to see if someone did beat you.

On second thoughts why not stay here as you are ruining Enigma's case anyway (It was half ruined before).


Gerry

[stolwyk]

Sorry Readers; writers who want to be known are joining this site: it is a great site for exhibitionists.

Duty calls. I have here another article from the brilliant writer Dr Kurt Richebacher:

APOCALYPSE LATER -referring to the USA:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/richebacher010705.html

"In the third quarter of 2004, consumer spending accounted for 89.2% of real GDP. It is the familiar ruinous growth pattern. A viable economic recovery would require a strong contribution through sharply higher business investment and hiring. Both remain missing, although the recovery is entering its fourth year".

"Euroland's underlying economic performance is better than many commentators portray. Over the past decade, GDP per head has risen virtually at the same rate in euroland as the United States; euroland productivity growth (output per hour) and the rise in the employment rates were slightly faster than in the United States; and to maintain the same growth in GDP per head, U.S. workers have had to work much longer hours than their euroland counterparts."

[Mick100]

"I prefer to discuss with other Americans who don't have the KKK/anti-semitic tendencies that you exhibit"


================================


So why don't you do just that - join an american forum you stuck-up, nasty cow.


Mick

[stolwyk]

Gold 420.5 (+2.30) USD 83.37 (-0.24)

During the last few days, the gold price has moved down at night but not now.

Gerry

Gerry which TWO wars and what armys. The resitance in WW2 I can understand. Later did you join the French Foriegn Legion.

[stolwyk]

Indonesia

[Misc]

And the Dutch came second in both ... right ?

misc

[Baa_Baa]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Gold 420.5 (+2.30) USD 83.37 (-0.24)

During the last few days, the gold price has moved down at night but not now.

Gerry


When is 'night' for you Gerry? Just asking.

[stolwyk]

Good question, you are a keen observer.

[stolwyk]

Misc,

The Yanks and Australians wanted us out of Indonesia. The Americans would have cut off the Marshall aid, if the Dutch didn't go.

The Yanks were ready to take over the trade but the Indonesians maintained strong ties with the Dutch. So, the Yanks missed out in a way. And that is the situation today.

[Baa_Baa]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Good question, you are a keen observer.


Ummmm ... ah, which question was the good one? I was asking when 'night' was for you, but I guess that's not the -good question-.

Pray tell, pu lee ZZZ.

[Misc]

Happy to finance a ticket for your return Gerry .... Banda Aceh is nice at this time of year I hear ;)

misc

[stolwyk]

Gold price was stable yesterday and wouldn't move to $410. It is now rising somewhat: 422.0 (+2.50)

Euro 1.3135, Jap 103.89, oil 44.96 (-0.37), USD 83.03 (-0.26)

Jim Puplava has a very perceptive mind, is very well known and here is one of his important articles:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[stolwyk]

The US market came alive after the trade deficit rose to $60.3 mill against a consensus of $54 mill. Exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 1.3%.

The USD INDEX fell 0.89 cents to 82.3 The Euro rose 0.0149 to 1.3264.

The Jap is 102.38 (-1.05) They won't be happy with that.

Gold rose $4.10 to $425.9 Silver rose 10 cents to 6.70. Oil 46.37.

Comments: Commentators have now complained for a long time that the savings rate of the US is close to zero, while it is 40% in China. While credit was easy and tax concessions were granted, one would have expected solid capital formation. Instead the money went into the more speculative ventures.

A lower dollar apparently doesn't solve the trade deficit at this stage. STAGFLATION beckons.
_______________________________________

Dr KURT RICHEBACHER: "It is typically argued that the U.S. economy is importing too much in comparison to exports. Superficially, that is true. Yet on closer look, it is a mistaken perception. Compared to other industrialized countries, U.S. imports are very low as a ratio of GDP.

The true key problem is abysmally low goods exports, accounting lately for barely 7% of nominal GDP. This compares, by the way, with a German goods export ratio of 35% of GDP".

"In the third quarter of 2004, consumer spending accounted for 89.2% of real GDP. It is the familiar ruinous growth pattern. A viable economic recovery would require a strong contribution through sharply higher business investment and hiring. Both remain missing, although the recovery is entering its fourth year".

[Packersoldkidney]

77. Go Gerry! Go Gerry.

[stolwyk]

COMMENT:
It does look like the situation, using current policies, is irreversable; the chickens have come home to roost.

The Central Banks are colluding in trying to fill the US Bond issue requirements.

For some time now Consumers contributed 2/3 to the US economy. This apparently has risen lately and presents a dismal picture of a bad structural failure which can't be solved by a lower dollar alone.

The CPI and GDP data have been altered to suit the FED, so the current inflation rate is 6% and not the given 3.5%.

So, much is done with smoke and mirrors. As to job growth formation, nearly all goes into service industries and not the real economy.

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

76

[Baa_Baa]

stolwyck,
quote:Comments: Commentators have now complained for a long time that the savings rate of the US is close to zero, while it is 40% in China. While credit was easy and tax concessions were granted, one would have expected solid capital formation. Instead the money went into the more speculative ventures.

I struggle with this comment. Is this your thoughts? Help me understand where I'm wrong with the following;

In an extremely low basis rate and negative real interest rate environment, there is no incentive for saving. Smart people leverage cheap debt to acquire assets that either appreciate, and/or provide return on capital. The longer the 'easy money/credit' is available, the more bullish the punter becomes, hence rampant speculation. Not so smart people simply increase consumption.

Capital 'formation' (presuming you mean building capital reserves) is not smart in terms of growing that capital base, because the capital is secured within rock solid assets, i.e. things that have the least risk, --or return. The result is less building of capital and greater speculation. The cycle is self fulfilling.

The US has desperately poor return on capital, whereas the Chinese has excellent return on capital. The outcomes are as predictable (low savings being one of them) as the antithesis when the situation reverses.

[stolwyk]

Agree that the word: "expected" doesn't belong there.

Gerry

[Packersoldkidney]

74! 74! 74! and 5000 is out the door!

[dingdong]

Repent now you capitalist pig dogs the end is nigh. We will all be judged by the great Stolwykos on that fateful moment of his 5000th prophecy.

[stolwyk]

(Thanks Dingo):

WS) Final World Summary: US EQUITIES SLUMP AS OIL PRICE CLIMBS
RWE News
9:02:020 14/01/2005
Sydney - Friday - January 14: (RWE Australian Business News) -
US equities have retreated in the face of disappointing economic data
and a strong rise in the oil price overnight.
The market downturn accelerated in the last hour of business,
virtually doubling losses by the close.
Bonds rallied as retail sales were slightly weaker while there
was a big rise in initial jobless insurance benefits claims.
Wall Street's Dow settled 112 points, the S&P 500 ended 10
points behind, the Nasdaq composite finished 22 points lower and the 100 index came off 21 at the close.

February crude oil shot up to a six-week high on colder US
weather and greater demand for heating oil.
Oil settled $1.67 higher at $48.04 barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange and touched a high of $48.40 during the session.
This was the highest level since the December 1 peak of $49.12
while the all-time high was $55.67 barrel set on October 25.
Natural gas on the January contract rose sharply by 48.7c to
$6.43 per million btus in New York.

Heating oil inventories fell 3.4 per cent to 29.7 million
barrels last week, a five-month low, while crude oil stockpiles
country-wide dropped 513,000 barrels to 49.6 million.
This was 10 per cent lower than a year ago.
Meanwhile, on the data scene, the Labor Department reported
jobless claims surprisingly climbed to 367,000 last week.
Analysts had been expecting a drop to 340,000.
The Labor Department reported the latest claims were the highest
since September last year, although there are special factors to account for the rise.

But the four-week moving average of filings advanced to 344,000
from a revised 331,250.
A brighter aspect is that continuing claims have fallen sharply.
Retail sales improved 1.2 per cent in December but the figure
was marred by auto sales.
After excluding this figure, retail sales would have shown a
gain of 0.3 per cent against a 0.1 per cent rise in November.
Analysts had predicted a better result.

In other data the price of goods imported into the US fell 1.3
per cent in December, much more than expected.
A Labor Department report showed the cost of non-petroleum
imports rose again.
The market had predicted a 0.2 per cent decline following the
revised 0.2 per cent fall in November.
The rally in bonds showed the 10-year cash paper yield falling
4.5 points to 4.19 per cent.
Treasury's auction of the TIPS notes (Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities) went at a high yield of 1.725 per cent.
Bid-to-cover ratio was 1.88 times the amount on offer, down from
the 2.0 average for last year's auctions.

Foreign investors, including central banks, picked up $3.59
billion, or 36 per cent, of the issue which was down on the 45.6 per
cent average for auctions in 2004.

Gold came off $1.60 to $424.50 on the COMEX spot price as the US
dollar rallied.
The Australian dollar drifted lower to US76.63c in lacklustre
trading.

WALL STREET ... settled 111.95 points lower at 10,505.83 on the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. The broadly-based S&P 500 finished 10.25
behind at 1177.45. The Nasdaq composite closed 21.97 lower at 2070.56
and the 100 index ended 20.60 down at 1545.18. Treasuries gained on the poor data. The 10-year cash paper rose 11/32 ticks to 100 16/32,
trimming the yield 4.5 points to 4.19 per cent.

US DOLLAR ... fought back against key currencies overnight. It
was selling at 102.40 yen, compared with 102.39 yen yesterday in New
York. The Euro slipped to 1.3219 against 1.3264 previously while
sterling fell to 1.8825 (prev 1.8908). The greenback has firmed on the Swiss franc to 1.1721 (1.1675).

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ... has dipped against the greenback. The
Aussie is changing hands at US76.58c, down 9 points on last night's
local close. High for the session was US76.81c and low was US76.39c.
Crosses have been mixed. The yen is at 78.58 (prev 78.58), 0.5794 euros (prev 0.5787) an

[stolwyk]

(Thanks Siameseparrot) India Daily:

The coming oil crisis for India and the world due to Saudi instability
Staff Reporter
January 12, 2005


Saudi Arabia is going through a major transition. Al-Queda cells are so numerous that the kingdom is getting tired of eliminating them. They keep growing back before you eliminate them. The Jihadis are targeting foreign expatriate workers working in the oil industries. Many of these workers are slowly leaving Saudi Arabia to protect their lives.

Saudi Arabia ha a major crisis – workers willing to stay and work in the oil industry. The perception among the foreign workers are so bad that that the Saudi Government is slowly getting panicked.



If there is a solid knock out type terrorism in Saudi Arabia, the expatriate worker population will leave and the Saudi oil will get stuck right in the Arabian peninsula escalating oil price to level imagined before.

India’s vulnerability in oil is remarkable. In the whole world, she has least domestic oil compared to the growing demand. The higher oil price will be so devastating that Indian economy can reel for years and decades to come with high debt, negative balance of payments and external debt.

The growing Forex reserve can dry out in no time once it is clear that India just does not have enough reliable energy resource

Saudis in general are in a very precarious situation. According to international think tanks an increasing number of North American technical experts have backed out of projects for prominent oil companies in the kingdom because of similar security concerns. The health of the oil industry undoubtedly is critical to the country's political and social stability, as oil export revenues amount to 90-95 percent of total Saudi export earnings, 70-80 percent of state revenues and approximately 40 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

Saudi problem will extend itself right into India because as a matter of the only country that just cannot live without middle-eastern oil is really India and not United States.

India’s inability of utilizing coal, nuclear and other alternative energy can hurt badly.
Full article at:
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/01-12d-05.asp

[Packersoldkidney]

72! 72! A mere Six dozen posts and 5000 will be toast!

[stolwyk]

GLOBAL MARKETS-US stocks, dollar and oil up; gold and bonds fall:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;4VNNSCIM4JZ0GCRBA EOCFFA?type=goldMktRpt

Paul van Eeden:
Creating Consumers
January 14, 2004
The Labor Department recently announced that US employers created 2.2 million non-farm jobs last year, on a seasonally adjusted basis. With that kind of job creation, perhaps corporate America will secure the financial future of the country, and the world at large. After all, if 2.2 million jobs were created then 2.2 million consumers were empowered.

But, how accurate are labor figures?

The Department of Labor doesn’t go out every month and count all those who have jobs. Employment estimates are based on a sample of US corporations, and the data is then statistically treated to give an approximation of the overall labor environment.

During the 1990s, the Labor Department felt that employment estimates did not account for the number of jobs created when new companies were formed. As you may recall, thousands of new companies were being formed during that “New Era” of the tech-boom. So a method was devised to account for those jobs.

In June 2000, the CES (Division of Current Employment Statistics of the US Department of Labor) began implementing a new adjustment to the employment data based on a corporate net birth/death model.

It works something like this: based on the number of business closures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates how many businesses are created. And based on how many businesses they think were created, they add a number of jobs. The only measured sample here is how many businesses closed down; all the rest is guesswork.

The BLS website admits that “…The most significant potential drawback to this, or any model-based approach, is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships, and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points, or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend.”

During the Nineties, when an inordinate amount of new businesses were incorporated, the number of new businesses created relative to business failures was large. Now, I suspect, the opposite might be true. So the first question, is how accurate is the estimation of new businesses created in 2004, based on businesses that closed down? In other words, is it reasonable to assume we are dealing with a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships in the birth/death ratio of corporations in the current economic climate?

The second question, clearly, is how accurate is the estimation of employees per business created? For example, I work for myself, and as part of my own business planning I incorporated three companies last year. However, I did not hire even a single employee. So how relevant are new business registrations to the overall employment figures?

According to the BLS, the net amount of jobs added by the birth/death calculations is “relatively small”. So why worry about it?

The birth/death factors are not seasonally adjusted, and so cannot be subtracted out from the seasonally adjusted labor numbers; they can only be compared to non-seasonally adjusted numbers.

The US economy supposedly added 2.2 million non-farm jobs last year. The non-seasonally adjusted numbers, including farming, however, show that only 1.722 million jobs were created. Now, the interesting thing is that in a separate press release, the BLS announced that the imputed number of jobs created from its birth/death model for 2004 was 836,000, or 48% of the total number of jobs created during the whole year. In my books 48% is most certainly not a “relatively small” percentage.

Now, I don’t know if the employment numbers are right or wrong. But I do know that if roughly fifty percent of the jobs created last year were created on a spreadsheet, based on how many businesses were incorporated, and how many jobs those new business created, based on how many busines

[Mick100]

Thanks Gerry

Good artical - van Eeden


Mick

[Packersoldkidney]

Think I missed 71, Gerry, but we are now down to 70! Ten and 3 score, and 5k is outta the door!

[stolwyk]

What nice sand castles they have made and they will last forever?
But unfortunately, the Sunnis won't play, so the Shias did most of the work. The Kurds helped because they are looking into the future.

Saddam made a very important remark: "I hope that they will keep Iraq together". I don't think they will and I discussed some of the problems previously.

We really need to look at the whole picture to include Afghanistan and Saudi.

1. AFGHANISTAN:
That will only have a democracy as long the US or other troops remain. An excellent hideout for fighters and this year it has a record opium crop.

Now, who is going to take that Opium away from them? Nobody, because it is their livelyhood. Can the US pay for that crop and somehow train the farmers to raise different crops? Very difficult, I think. Opium is the best paying proposition.

2. IRAQ.
The Shias want an Islamist State run along the same line as Iran's. They have been in contact with Iran many times.
The Sunni and the Kurds obviously don't want that. (signs are that the Sunni will not partake in the elections). Shias and Sunni are not exactly in love with each other as has been shown over the years.

The US wasn't clever threatening Iran, as both Russians and Chinese are well established there. (A threat is not useful unless it can be carried out).

As mentioned, the Iranians are interested in a world wide domination by Islam and the place to start is Iraq and capture some of the oil fields as well. They will use the Shia in Iraq to do that.

So, no matter how much smoke and mirrors are being used, the outlook is grim. The Shia, once having formed an army will try to defeat the Sunni while the Kurds will annex the property they already hold and call it their state. Perhaps they may expand it somewhat so as to ensure they will be well supplied with oilfields.

The Sunni can move at night and make it difficult for a Government to exist. There will be plenty of sabotage and the ensuing guerilla warfare could last a very long time. No doubt, they want a piece of Iraq as well.

Iran will support the Shia throughout with weapons and training (I believe they are already training fighters), or supply units of their regular army disguised as fighters, while the US looks on.
Obviously, as long as this situation exists, the US troops can't go home as they won't surrender the oil fields.

The Shia will use them till they think they can handle the situation and will ask the US to go home. (So in a way, the US has assisted the Iranians while being in a check-mate position and without wanting to do so).

3. SAUDI:
Again, it isn't too healthy here either with Bin Laden instructing Al Qaeda cells to blow up refineries/pipe lines and to get rid of the Royal family. For starters, attacks are being made on employees of foreign companies assisting the Saudi.
It is quite possible that some major sabotage may suddenly put some oil supplies out of action. This will affect the US.

The problem with the US staying in Iraq and to some extent helping the Saudi to maintain and guard the oil supply is that Bin Laden uses this for propaganda purposes by pointing out that the oil is being sold too cheaply to the US.



And now the sea comes in and floods the sand castles where many have worked on: democracy has disappeared.



Gerry
Gold 422.3 (-0.40) Slowly weakening. USD 82.92 (-0.21); oil 48.38 (+0.34)

[Packersoldkidney]

Red raw. 64.

[stolwyk]

A static position: USD 83.11, oil 48.38 and gold 422.2 (-$0.5).

Some predict less inflation and a lower budget deficit in 2005.



Larry S. Levy:
Metal Bulls Plow ahead:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/levy/2005/0114.html

[stolwyk]

Gold rose to 426.7 on expectation that the CPI data may not be that good but retreated afer a more positive result came out. It is now 422.9 Silver:6.59 USD: 83.50 (+0.23) Oil 47.70

The US had no worries financing the outflow from the nation's current account deficit:
http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/tic/year/2005/yearly/01/index.html

Latest market comment:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8D8A4489%2D1AFC%2D4F09%2DAE3E%2D BB661857387D%7D&;siteid=mktw


Some interesting thoughts:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

[stolwyk]

The Dow has moved down steadily, now another 69 points to 10471.
USD has moved up to 83.79 (+0.23) and Euro: 1.2958 (-0.0046.)
oil 47.60.

Gold is very static; comments from India indicate they are buying in dips, perhaps China is buying as well, so it is stuck at 422.0 at the moment (but had a low of 419.9 and a high of 423.5). Silver 6.56.

The commodity sector is due for a permanent change and I wrote this post on HC on 19 Jan:


THE BATTLE OVER COMMODITIES:

I have touched on this some time ago to emphasize that the normal Demand/Supply cycle cannot be applied in strategic commodities, those badly wanted by producers.

The cycle won't conform because the Demand is not natural. Normally, most resources are available to anyone ie if one can't get any nickel from Russia, then Australia/Canada will suply at a much higher price as the supply is becoming less. But it is available.

That is in theory, however Russia needs to export nickel and because we know that, the pricing takes that into account.

Up till now there have been some take-offs in the form of contracts lasting a definite time. But the bulk of the commodities is sold over an exchange or private treaty. The Buyer keeps a stockpile and when it runs low, buys some more. Prices will vary with cycles and availability.
__________________________________

THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED

What happens is that China instead of buying periodically, is now locking in vast assets which may last for 20 or more years. Alternatively, the contracts wil be for very long periods.

The result is that these assets won't be available to anyone else: China is locking in far more than she immediately needs by buying large companies who have these resources. She needs to do that to guarantee supply now and for a long time to come.

They would in particular pay attention to nickel and some other items where the world's inventories are not that high.

They need to concentrate on acquiring big assets so as to be more economic. Just imagine if nearly all of Russia's nickel went to China and India, leaving the other countries to fend for themselves at higher prices due to this lock-out.

Oil is very strategic and even more so if sabotage destroys some of the available supply to countries other than those of China and India who may be guaranteed supply for a long time to come.

Of course in a depression more resources will be available as demand declines. But in "normal" periods. the Demand/Supply curve has changed to definitely benefit the producer.

One only has to read the articles about coming negotiations re Iron Ore to get an idea as to what would happen if a large acreage was "locked out"

So the situation is rapidly changing from plenty of supply to paying the demanded prices.

And China is far more active in acquisition than India is. Wait till the latter becomes really serious.

The US and Europe could be hard hit unless they also lock in commodities. However, unlike China, they don't have state controlled commodity companies.

Other companies will make acquisitions but either the big assets are gone or they won't be prepared to lock in vast assets unless they can get a real return.

That doesn't seem the case for China who want safety of supply first.

So, the competition amongst buyers will be there. Canada, Australia as well as Russia are to benefit.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

LATEST: Gold +5.10 to 427.2

There is a distrust of the USD, Index down 0.68 to 83.25 Euro 1.3052 (+0.0092) Jap 102.7 (-0.7) Silver 6.78 (+0.25) oil 48.6 (+1.29)

Dow down 69 to 10402.

Previous report:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF4BC652B%2DFC97%2D4C4D%2D9147%2D C7BF12255854%7D&;siteid=mktw


CLIVE MAUND: Sectorwide Upside Breakout Alert
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund011905.html

[stolwyk]

Please refer to the BATTLE OVER COMMODITIES, this page, date 21 Jan. (That post first appeared on HC on 19 Jan).
Continued:

Sure, there is a vast amount spent by China all over the place, particularly in South America and IRAN/former Soviet republics. They even build railroads and infrastructure for the party who supplies them with the goods.

There is one coming up in Australia now. In a way, desolate landscapes are changed for the better by them. The cash being paid in IRAN, Mongolia and Turkestan must be phenominal. But the bad $US keep coming in. They already had a kitty of some $US800 mill, I think.

So, the US buys to consume and the Chinese buys resources and other assets, some of it would be US assets, no doubt. They would be careful not to confront the US if they can help it. But, they have the US in the squeeze by holding so many dollars!

THE US IS ASLEEP. WHEN WILL IT WAKE UP? WHY IS THERE SO MUCH TIME SPENT ON SMOKE AND MIRRORS?

My opinion is that given time, this manipulation of commodities by China and others WILL BE THE NEXT US NIGHTMARE TO FOLLOW THE CURRENT DEFICITS PROBLEM.

The folowing article is a MUST read:
Willie: EFFECTS OF CHINESE ACQUISITIONS:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie011805.html


Gerry

[stolwyk]

WHY WON'T THE CHINESE REVALUE?

I think there are a number of angles to that:
1. A realistic revaluation means that goods will become less competitive compared with those from other Asian producer nations.

2. Forty percent of Chinese production is taken by the US. It is not yet possible for increased demand from other nations to replace a significant part of the US demand.

3. It would make Chinese goods more expensive in the US and other countries and would increase the chance for a recession due to increased inflation.
(One could argue that perhaps the Chinese production net margin could be lowered but there would be a limit to that).

4. The upshot is that less Chinese goods will be consumed hence a decrease in Chinese exports.

5. Because Chinese expectations have been raised it pays to keep the population happy by inducing growth. A marked deterioration in production can result in disturbances.

6. The current situation suits the Chinese and the US (although the latter would deny it), as the Chinese are principal holders of US bonds. This buying by them and others have kept down US inflation.

7. It is imperative that the status quo be maintained while the Chinese are undertaking masssive resources acquisitions. This involves currency and other risks.

8. $US are good enough to buy the necessary massive resources needed to ensure China's future.
While on the one hand the supply of dollars is growing and this promotes some inflation, vast amounts of dollars are going out to buy these assets.

It wil take a number of years to secure these resources and pay for these; but they work at high speed simultaneously on a number of continents.

When doing these deals, a massive amount of Chinese railwaystock (trains and rails) and mining equipment can be supplied by the Chinese state owned companies, and this softens deals made by the Chinese.

9. Once they have made good progress, it is time to look at securing other hand picked assets and the US may want to sell some as well.

10. So, the influx of US dollars is not really a problem because there are ways to dispose of these other than just buying US Bonds.

11. It is argued that upvaluing of the currency will make Chinese imports of resources cheaper. That would be so and no doubt they would have studied this.

They have sofar decided against it and are paying for resources in devalued $US.

12. In the meantime, locking in vast resources causes price increases to others needing these commodities. So, in a way, buying these oil, copper, manganese, chromium, nickel and other assets in the ground now will be a good policy.

13. Arising from that, in the future a measure of price control is possible forcing others to buy these goods at certain pricing or go without it. So, in a way, whoever has these vast resources can extract concessions from others.

Already, building industries in the US in one area had to stop their activities at times because of a lack of cement: it was being redirected to China.

14. As long as the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) is pegged, China will keep a large amount of US dollars; after all, it is a political weapon.

15. It is only when the Chinese see that there is an advantage in revaluing, they will do so but only to avoid a trade war. In that case, they won't make a full revaluation but incremental ones: there is then always something left to fight with.

However, in defense of the Chinese, I must say their monetary and banking systems are not very strong. To fully revalue, they need to be in control of their currency which has to be freely convertible and be able to withstand an onslaught by a Hedge fund.

As someone said: "Virtually all the banks in China are not creditworthy (except Bank of China), in terms of acceptance of International Letters of Credit no foreign banks will accept their notes".


Gerry

[stolwyk]

FINANCING THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT.

When I read about the $20 Bill surplus in financing Bonds, I just couldn't comprehend it.

There was talk over a possible shortfall and here we have foreigners falling over each other financing it.

So the market thought too, an amazing feat. This should have kept the market going for a while but it didn't.

The $US rose on the news but a few days later, the Index collapsed to 83.26 (-0.57). So much for the TA people who mentioned a strengthening dollar to come and that it would hit 0.88, no problem.

But then I found the reason how that deficit was being financed:

Jim Sinclair:
"Let's not forget the reduction in taxes from over 30% to 5% if US companies repatriate foreign funds into USD coming back into the United States and make US investments such as buying US bonds with those funds.

The total of all returning funds, assuming they all came back, does not put a dent in one day's trading in the international currency market but could help one month of (TIC) figures".

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment: TIC=Treasury International Capital: "These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities".

So, here we have another trick to finance the deficit at least for a very short while. US companies with overseas money flowing in get significant tax advantages compared with US companies who don't export. Not exactly fair one would say.

Another type of export incentive and the EEC won't be too happy about that one; not that they will do much about it, seeing the US in difficult circumstances.

Here is but one example of how Greenspan operates: plugging one gap after another by creating multiple anomalies.
Not exactly a sign of strength.

And that is how the US market perceived it too, it fell. Gold went up $5.20 to $427.20.

The next few months could be interesting, US consumer sentiment is down and inventories are rising.

Gerry

[Cooper]

Some good points in your post re: Chinese revaluation, Gerry. Cheers.

[stolwyk]

Thanks COOPER.

Here is TED BUTLER:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary.html


Paul van Eeden:
China and commodity prices
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan212005.html

[stolwyk]

CAN THE USA BE SAVED?

Not under the present leadership, I think.

There is too much preoccupation with smoke and mirrors while the spin doctors are flat out giving a positive recount.

An example is the budget coming up. The war in Iraq is now running at close to $US200 bill/year. This won't be in the budget but will be off balance sheet.

INTERNATIONAL POLICY.
Their preoccupation with terrorism has no limits; at the same time vital relationships are not attended to. Europe blames Bush not only for the Iraq episode but also for "promoting" terrorism (No approval from UN to invade Iraq, causing a massive loss of life and destruction of property).
Inviting increasing resistance by Islam fundamentalists and generally strengthening their cause not only in the Middle East but activating it in Europe as well.

While Russia had a good relationhip with the US before, Bush has allowed it to turn sour and has driven them much closer to China.

He is going to regret this as both Russia and China are very active in IRAN, the country who will back the possible future SHIA Govt in IRAQ, (The implication is that the US will have shed a lot of blood in Iraq so Iran can take over)

So, the US international policies have been disastrous and are continuing to be so. They have been expensive with only negative returns.

CURRENT ACCOUNT AND BUDGET DEFICITS.
These are growing at high levels. Govt debt alone runs at $US7.4 trillions alone. There are others:
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/reserves_a.htm#current

That page presents a distressing situation in nearly every field.
"Switzerland had $5,972 in foreign reserves per person in 2000, 24 times more per person than the U.S. (in Feb. 2004 the Swiss increased 40% to $8,333 per person)".

Suffice to say most numbers are out of date. It takes about $US2.1 bill/day to finance the Current Account Deficit.
Jim Sinclair:
"Let's not forget the reduction in taxes from over 30% to 5% if US companies repatriate foreign funds into USD coming back into the United States and make US investments such as buying US bonds with those funds".

This does show the weak state, the US is in.

CONSUMPTION: Richebacher: Consumption has priority in the US; about 2/3 of GDP is normally devoted to that. It rose to 89% in the third quarter of 2004"

SAVING: Currently about 0.2% against 48% by the Chinese. The US it up to its ears in debt. However, they do have a large investment in housing.

Kurt Richebacher: "It is typically argued that the U.S. economy is importing too much in comparison to exports. Superficially, that is true. Yet on closer look, it is a mistaken perception. Compared to other industrialized countries, U.S. imports are very low as a ratio of GDP.

The true key problem is abysmally low goods exports, accounting lately for barely 7% of nominal GDP. This compares, by the way, with a German goods export ratio of 35% of GDP".
_____

OUTSOURCING
This is designed to lower the cost of goods and thereby lower inflation. It is also destroys the manufacturing base; skills and technology are transferred to China and India instead. Creation of jobs is now mainly in the service industries. Manufacturing requires capital formation and this is low.

CPI AND GDP
The CPI is 3.5% (energy and food included) but researchers say it is about 6%. The GDP is overstated according to these sources.

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES: These promote consumption. LOW interest rates have lagged behind inflation rates. Hence, much cash went into speculative ventures instead of productive purposes.

THE USD INDEX.
That is now 83 having hit a low of 81. The outlook is bleak although it may get support at some stage. Estimators mentioned 60 at some stage; some now come up with 40. A low USD will make living in the US very expensive and the politicians are well aware of that. The EEC, Japan and others like a higher USD so they can compete against the US on exports.


SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
International policy has acted against the interest of the US. A much more sensitive approach needs to

[stolwyk]

Very static at the moment. Gold 426.80, down 40 cents.

Commodities report:

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/feeds/ap/2005/01/24/ap1777552.html


Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, January 2005:
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm

[Misc]

Unbelievable ... 412 posts on this thread , 350 odd made by 'Stolwyk' , 60 odd by posters pointing out the uselessness of the poster and his postings , and 2 posts thanking him for his input !

And on he goes ...

Were you once a ventrilequist 'Gerry' ??

Misc

Misc read the thread by abdab on the of market forum.

[stolwyk]

Consumer confidence edged further higher in January, according to the Conference Board's widely watched index which rose to 103.4 vs. an upward revised 102.7 in December.

At the moment USD 83.94 (+0.74); Gold is 421.80 (-5.20) Silver 6.70; Euro 1.2971 (-0.0069); Jap 104.3 (+1.53). oil 49.64 (+0.83)

Gold futures fall as dollar gains:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF3915E31%2D37FF%2D4DA8%2D8708%2D D00D0B26E910%7D&;siteid=mktw

Should the US Government's Sovereign Credit Rating be Downgraded to Junk?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/englund/2005/0124.html

[stolwyk]

JIM PUPLAVA:

Unloved, Undervalued and Underowned
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/jan252005.html
______________________________________

No new mines while rand is so strong, says Gold Fields:

Repercussions will be felt only in 10-15 years, industry warns

GOLD Fields CE Ian Cockerill says South African gold producers are struggling to benefit from record gold prices because the rand's rally against the dollar is wiping out earnings needed to invest in new mines.

The value of the rand against the dollar has more than doubled in the past three years, raising costs for Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, and Harmony, SA's biggest gold miners.

The companies pay most costs at local mines in rands and get dollars for the metal, whose price jumped 8,1% to an average $435/oz in the latest quarter, a 16-year high.

"The challenge for all of us is not only to make profit at an operating level, but to make enough to reinvest," Cockerill said last week. Gold output in SA, the world's largest producer, has plunged about 60% since 1971 to 376 tons in 2003, the Chamber of Mines said.

Costs are rising as companies dig deeper for gold and unions push for higher wages, which make up about half of mining costs.

The gold industry accounts for 13% of SA's export earnings and employs 195000 people, government statistics show.

Mineworkers' pay rose 7% in July after a 10% increase in 2003, exceeding SA's inflation rate of 4,4% a year.

Mining gold in SA cost $349/oz in the third quarter, 40% more than the global average, says Bruce Alway, an analyst at GFMS in London.

Gold Fields may report next week that earnings before items and goodwill have risen to R157,5m in the three months through December, from R102m the previous quarter, according to a survey of four analysts.

AngloGold may report on Thursday this week that profit has increased to R309,4m from R274m, while Harmony, early next month, may report a loss of 83c a share, its sixth consecutive loss on that basis.

The rand price of gold has declined about 25% in the past three years. The rand gained 5,1% in the most recent quarter.

"The situation is a lot worse than is immediately apparent," Neal Froneman, CE of Afrikander Lease, said last month.

The uranium explorer closed its only operating gold mine a year ago after the rising rand made the site unprofitable.

"Repercussions will come in 5-10 years, when it will be difficult to justify mine expansions that should have taken place now," he said.

The FTSE/JSE Securities Exchange SA Africa gold index, which tracks gold companies traded in SA, slumped 26% in the three months until December 31, the ninth-worst performance among indices tracked.

Harmony's shares were the worst-performing during that period, losing 42%. Harmony is pursuing a hostile bid for Gold Fields.

"This industry has taken a huge knock," DRDGOLD CE Ian Murray, said last month.

"If the rand stays strong for another two years, there will be massive job cuts."

DRDGOLD fired 7000 employees last year, a third of its workforce.

Job losses in SA's gold industry might reach 20000 this year, Harmony CE Bernard Swanepoel said in September last year.

Business Day

Gerry only 9 to go and we see if Abdab is right and you self destruct

[Farouk]

yawn

[Onthemoney]

zzz zzz zzz

[dingdong]

quote:Originally posted by Misc

Unbelievable ... 412 posts on this thread , 350 odd made by 'Stolwyk' , 60 odd by posters pointing out the uselessness of the poster and his postings , and 2 posts thanking him for his input !

And on he goes ...

Were you once a ventrilequist 'Gerry' ??

Misc


I too thank Stolwykos for his 350 golden commandments.

[stolwyk]

AN ORDERLY DECLINE OF THE US DOLLAR?

From Reuters
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?
type=bondsNews&storyID=7425896

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. dollar will see an orderly decline
over the next two years, the Congressional Budget Office
said in a report on Tuesday.


"CBO expects that the exchange value of the dollar will
decline during the next two years, largely because continued
deficits in the nation's current account will raise net
liabilities to foreigners to new highs," said CBO, Congress'
nonpartisan fiscal watchdog.


"In CBO's view investors will be less willing to add to their
holdings of dollar assets at current exchange rates and interest
rates."


It said although some analysts have raised the possibility of a
sharp fall in the dollar, CBO expects it to be an orderly fall
with little disruption to the U.S. economy.


CBO said this is because the expected return on investment in
the United States is still higher than in other countries. Also,
many countries that trade with the United States would want to
minimize the potential damage to their own economies by
stopping the dollar from falling too sharply.


CBO is also predicting an orderly fall because depreciation of
the dollar will eventually help boost U.S. net exports and
economic growth.


"That positive aspect of a drop in the dollar's value also helps
limit the extent of its fall," CBO said.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COMMENT:
(Thanks Chuck),

It is not always easy to steady the fall of the dollar nor is it known how far down it will go.

Most nations don't want it to fall at all because their exports are being threatened. But, if the US economy gets shot, so will be theirs as well, so some cooperation needs to be forthcoming. Ask the Japanese!

I think there will be a lot of support below 80 for the Dollar Index, possibly making it difficult to lower it further.

However, the US can do something about that if it so wished.

Sofar, a lower dollar has not decreased the current account deficit and it will take more than just lowering the dollar to produce an overall reasonable economy.

At this stage no one wants to talk about stagflation because the US thinks that the latest economic fillip will allow it to defer the difficult issues. Peace in IRAQ will be essential.

However, it will allow Greenspan to leave while there is still something left of the economy.

It has been very confusing lately: first, US doesn't care if the dollar drops, then Snow declares that they wanted a stronger dollar and now this. One way to instill confidence, I suppose.

In the meantime thanks to the Budget Office for letting the Gold Club know! See what happens!

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Following the US Budget Office statement that they expect an "orderly" gradual lowering of the USD, it declined 0.69 to 83.21.

The euro rose 0.01 to 1.3072 Gold rose $4.50 to $426.3.

Silver rose 9 cents to 6.79. Oil +0.27 to 49.05.


Wall Street advice: Get heavy on metal:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2005/01/26/financial0908EST0054.DTL


Canada worried by China buying its resources:
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;3LPYVQU3V3YQCCRBAEZSFEY?t ype=mergersNews&storyID=7441133§ion=investing

[stolwyk]

January 25, 2005


INTERVIEW WITH THEODORE BUTLER

Cook: Since we teamed, up silver has doubled in price. You have suggested a much bigger increase. Could this be all we’re going to get?

Butler: No. Without putting too fine of a timeline on it, I think we’re just getting started. There are still many, many dollars to the upside from here. In some ways, silver is a much better buy here than it was at lower prices a while back.

Cook: In what respect?

Butler: Because, I think we won’t have to wait as long to see meaningful increases in price. Obviously, buying silver at four or five dollars is better than six or seven, but unless someone can beam himself back in time, you have to deal with current reality.

Cook: Which is?

Butler: We’re still at bargain prices and the wait shouldn’t be very long from this point.

Cook: Why do you say the wait won’t be long?

Butler: Look around you. A couple of years ago, when silver was lower in price, the commodity world was very different than today. Everything appeared to be plentiful and cheap – energy, metals, everything. Now it’s hard to find any mineral or metal that isn’t in tight supply and at much higher prices.

Cook: The China effect?

Butler: Yes. I agree that China and other high-growth Asian areas are behind it.

Cook: Will this demand last?

Butler: It looks like a short-term and long-term phenomenon. Silver was in a deficit before the other metals went into deficits. We’re still using up more silver than we produce, and more people than ever recognize that fact.

Cook: What about the fall-off in photography?

Butler: Yes, digital photography has made great inroads into the consumer area, just as it previously did in graphic arts. But that doesn’t necessarily translate into an overall drop in silver usage.

Cook: Why not?

Butler: Well, for one thing, even if consumer photo film usage is down, the printing of digital images on photo paper is way up. Silver in film is recyclable, while photo paper isn’t. So we lose silver recovery as film usage declines. I have a source in the recycling industry who has complained for years about the loss of his silver production due to a fall-off in consumer film usage. Talk about ironic.

Cook: With all this silver demand and lack of supply, why isn’t the price much higher?

Butler: Come on Jim, you know the answer to that. Manipulation. If there’s a free market explanation for flat prices when demand is outstripping supply, I certainly haven’t heard it. If it weren’t for metals leasing and COMEX short selling, you wouldn’t be asking about low silver prices.

Cook: When you talk about manipulation, a lot of people think that sounds kooky. How do you overcome that?

Butler: I know, without a doubt, that the silver market has been, and is, manipulated. I’ve tried to document that as clearly as I possibly can. It’s up to all interested persons to decide for themselves what the weight of the evidence tells them. If they decide it’s manipulated and presents a great bargain, they will buy it. If they think the idea of manipulation is kooky, they probably won’t buy it. If someone really believes that today’s price of silver is fairly decided by free market forces, why would they buy it?

Cook: How does this so-called manipulation end?

Butler: It ends with a bang. We suddenly run out of leasing supplies, or the dealers don’t go short on the next rally, or both. There’ll be nothing gradual about it.

Cook: Who is leasing silver now?

Butler: Because the leasing of silver is so secretive and done behind closed doors, you can never be sure who’s doing it, unless it slips. Certainly nobody is proudly proclaiming to be leasing metals. If I had to guess, I say China, due to past commitments.

Cook: Why would the dealers who have made a lot of money on the short side discontinue doing so?

Butler: Because some of them, at least, are smart enough to know this game is very long in the tooth and that it can only end badly. I’m giving them credit for being smart enough to see the end coming and vol

[Baa_Baa]

Apart from the fact that this is easily obtainable information from Ted's own website, I think you are out of line reposting entire pieces of work that are "All Rights Reserved © 2002 Investment Rarities, Inc" and you include no attribution, or links.

That is appalling, especially for a 'Legend'.

[Farouk]

I was indifferent. Now that I couldn't be in the war, I almost wanted the war. Yet, at the same time, I was glad to be out of it. The Doctor finished writing. I felt I had fooled them. My objection to to war was not that I had to kill somebody or be killed senselessly, that hardly mattered. What I objected to was to be denied the right to sit in a small room and starve & drink cheap wine & go crazy in my own way and at my own leisure.
I didn't want to be awakened by a bugle. I didn't want to sleep in a barracks with a bunch of sex-mad football-loving overfed wisecracking masturbating lovable frightened pink farting mother-struck modest basket-ball playing American boys that I would have to be friendly with, that I would have to get drunk on leave with, that I would have to listen to dozens of unfunny, obvious, dirty jokes.I didn't want their itchy blankets or their itchy uniforms or their itchy humanity. I didn't want to see their toenails or read their letters from home. I didn't want to watch their ass-holes bobbing in front of me in close formation. I didn't want to make friends, I didn't want to make enemies, I just didn't want them or it or the thing. To kill or be killed hardly mattered.

[stolwyk]

USD 83.43 (+0.13); Euro 1.3038 (-0.0037)

Gold 425.6 (-0.8), 0il 48.90 (+0.12).

GDP data tonight.

China is rapidly making large contracts with various countries concerning resources. Their progress is more advanced than I thought and the US is gradually being locked out.

We have discussed this before but the latest excellent article from Mike Hartman illustrates this very well:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Extract:
"Yesterday the New York Times ran an article, Venezuela Tensions Worry Oil Executives. “Venezuela may be increasing tension in energy markets with decisions that are confounding international oil companies, but the government there says it is merely seeking more income and new markets for its oil…

Concern is also rising over the possibility that Venezuela may eventually divert shipments from the United States, which now receives more than half of Venezuela’s total production.

The Venezuelans say they still consider the United States their principal market, adding that only new production would be moved to China.” This is already having an impact on the U.S. in that ConocoPhillip’s plan to develop a new oil field in Venezuela was suspended about two weeks ago while Venezuela continues negotiations with China".

[combi]

Hello Gerry, that was a good read and I believe that we are witnessing a shift in world power and oil/energy products are going to be the weapon that brings about the change.

You know if Iraq did not have oil would the US be in there, No way.

Russia is using oil as it’s new weapon just look at the Yuko's political take over.

China is securing all types of resource and oil contracts.

Look out world new powers are moving now and for me that’s why I'm keen to invest in oil/energy related companies in our part of the world.

Combi

[stolwyk]

Thanks for that COMBI.

I hope you find this thread interesting. The purpose is to discuss items which may ultimately affect the USD and hence the gold price:
________________

HOW LONG WILL US TROOPS REMAIN IN IRAQ?

I am confident that had Bush known what was waiting for him in Iraq, he would never invaded it.

Their US troops are trapped there and there is no exit strategy. The US is not including the Afghan and Iraqi expenditure in the Budget; if it were it could be about 25% of the total.

That is a big load for a country which is in financial strife already.

I have referred to this and the Iranian position in Iraq using page 20
of this thread, refer to 17 Jan. 2005:

Extract:
"The Shia will use them till they think they can handle the situation and will ask the US to go home. (So in a way, the US has assisted the Iranians while being in a check-mate position and without wanting to do so)".
________________________________________

So, when will the US troops go home? Americans thought that the end of 2005 should see them go.

NOT SO:
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0af41f06-6f2d-11d9-94a8-00000e2511c8.html

Extract:

"Lieutenant-General James Lovelace, director of army operations, said on Monday the army expects to keep its current level of 120,000 troops in Iraq until 2007.

The latest estimate underscores the difficulty the Pentagon is having training enough Iraqi security forces to allow US forces to return home, although a significant portion of supplemental request will be dedicated to training efforts".
______

And it is now becoming clearer that the US won't allow Iran to take over Iraq by proxy: apart from the US losing control of the oil, they can't have Iran's millitant Islam policies spreading in that part of the world.

So, the US troops may stay for an indefinite period IMHO.
A problem will arise if they are asked to leave. However, they could initially find a reason for staying:
"Training of Iraqi troops still in progress as the level of experience is not good enough".

The already poor image of the US in many parts of the world will be even more affected.

US Deficits will remain a problem.

Meanwhile China is giving positive messages everywhere they are going with the aim of locking in resources. As mentioned, the coming friction about resources could add a new DIMENSION to having GOLD.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

The US news was that the GDP had slipped from 4% in the third quarter to 3.1% in Oct/Dec and that inventories were rising.

Please note that Commentators tend to deduct 1% from the GDP because of the way Greenspan has put it together, so, the GDP is actually about 2.1%. Here are the results:
http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/gdp/year/2005/yearly/01/index.html

IMHO the US is in a bind from which it is difficult to extricate itself from. Consider that normally 2/3 of GDP is from consumption. That rose to 89% in July-Sept:

Kurt Richebacker, page 20, date 13 Jan:
The true key problem is abysmally low goods exports, accounting lately for barely 7% of nominal GDP. This compares, by the way, with a German goods export ratio of 35% of GDP".

"In the third quarter of 2004, consumer spending accounted for 89.2% of real GDP. It is the familiar ruinous growth pattern. A viable economic recovery would require a strong contribution through sharply higher business investment and hiring. Both remain missing, although the recovery is entering its fourth year".

Now, as consumption rises (assuming that profits are made), GDP and the Trade Deficit both rise.

It got worse when Bush gave away that easy money which produced that consumption equal to 89.2% of the GDP.

Now, the economy is slowing down and that could slow interest rates hikes. It is possible they wont be raised. Thus the USD won't get that kick, although with these deficits, the positive effect is limited.

Still, imports are chugging along and so will be the trade deficit.
The USA first didn't care about the dollar, then it wanted a strong one (Bush) and now they want a gradual decline.

If it is too gradual (slow), then it will take too long before consumption is cut back unless China revalues but they won't be in a hurry and if they did it would be by increments, so it would take time.

Lowering the dollar index from 130 to 83 increased the Current Account deficit. So, unless it is drastically lowered and exports of goods are increased while consumption and/or Govt costs are cut back, I can't see a solution.

Exports of goods requires Capital Formation and a great deal of it. Sofar, Richebacher didn't see much of that, consumption took priority.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

STEPHEN ROACH: THE HOLLOW CONFIDENCE OF DAVOS:

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0

-----------------------------

Comment: Agree, that the US is scared about a heavy recession/depression if they raised interest rates too much. And to be fair, the rest of the world wouldn't like one either and prefers to struggle along, supporting the US where it can up to a certain point.

The Oct-Dec 2004 period was marked by a fall of the GDP to 3.1 on an annual basis (Corrected to 2.1 by Commentators) from 4% in July-Sept. Inventories rose.

The FED will be watching the numbers in the current period to see if there is a reversal or at least a continuation. If there is a down trend then any interest rate will be curbed and so the current malaise will then continue.

That is a pity because real interest rates are well below inflation thereby encouraging bubbles to continue.

If the growth is positive then interest rates could be raised till the US gets rid of the housing bubble and that takes time. It is imperative that real interest rates rise. And I mentioned that a much lower dollar would be *part* of the painful medicine to be effective.

I don't think that the US has any intention to carry out those painful steps, believing in softly..softly, hoping that China will revalue very soon.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Following the Iraqi election, gold went as low as $419.3 then recovered to 422.2 (-4.10). Silver: 6.71 (-5 cents) USD 83.55 (+0.09)and oil 48.08.

Here is the Reuters report:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;G42O5RCU5EE4ECRBA EKSFFA?type=goldMktRpt


Gerry

[stolwyk]

USD, Gold and oil are down: USD: 83.40, Gold 421, oil 46.99.
Silver 6.71

Swanson: is a gold bottom imminent?:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/jan312005.html


Alex Wallenwein: US Congressional Budget Office: GOLD TO KEEP RISING!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein013005.html

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

USD is now 83.58 (Response to 25 points rate rises is virtually zero due to the size of deficits), Gold 421.5 (static) and oil 46.60 (lower)
___________________________

Gold rises after Fed interest rate hike:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9CF59762%2D76B5%2D4AB6%2DBAF5%2D 28EB7254411C%7D&;siteid=mktw

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Important article:
Simple Multiplication - The Real Problem Behind The US Trade Deficit?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/ci020105.html

[kittydashwood]

Syria and Iran named in the state of the union, no timetable given for withdrawl of troops. New gas tax announced.

[stolwyk]

Thanks Kitty,

The US can't do much about Iran as the Russians and Chinese are there. Unless Israel is silly enough to launch their missiles.



COMEX gold ends at 3-1/2-month low on fund sales
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;H2PIRXN1F3SUMCRBA ELCFEY?type=goldMktRpt

Current data: USD 83.92, Euro 1.2975, Gold 417.0 (low of 414.4) Silver 6.67, oil 46.64.

Gerry

[Farouk]

Farouk: Aren't you Scott Fitzgerald, sometime short-story writer & well known alcoholic?
FSF: Yes, you've heard of me, not many have, I've been to Hollywood, writing scripts, it's hard work, I'm trying to stay on the wagon, got too many bills, the wife's in an institution, she's gone nuts. The daughter's in an expensive school, I've got responsibilities. The books made good money back in the 20s, but all that dough's gone now, we spent most of it on booze. Frittered a fair amount away in Paris & the French Riviera staying in Hotels, trying to keep up with our wealthy friends the Murphys.By the way, are you indeed Farouk, acknowledged kebab cook & adept investor?
Farouk: Yes, you want some stock tips?
FSF: Yep.
Farouk: Burns Philp, AUO, IHG, extra tip for you, stay out of Uranium.
FSF. Hmmm, I'm just popping down to the liquor store, what's your poison?
Farouk: A decent French Brandy would go down nicely.
FSF: Good choice. Did you see the legs on that one?
Farouk: Yeah, I believe she's the next big thing from Warner brothers, she just moved to Hollywood from over east. The mother's a good looker as well.
FSF: I've been seeing a young girl, Sheilah Graham, do you know her?
Farouk: No.


As this thread has been assigned to inane prattle, I thought that I would make use of it to do an exercise for my creative writing classes.
At least I wrote it myself, unlike some people who have learnt how to "copy & paste" at their Seniornet classes & now are in the grip of a serious obsessive-compulsive disorder characterised by posting many times daily on subjects that are of little interest to 99% of the populace.

[stolwyk]

THanks Farouk, you are doing well.

Uranium has made quite a lot of money for some people. Read the SMM and PDN threads.

You said: "At least I wrote it myself, unlike some people who have learnt how to "copy & paste" at their Seniornet classes & now are in the grip of a serious obsessive-compulsive disorder characterised by posting many times daily on subjects that are of little interest to 99% of the populace".

Reply: There are a lot of posts here written by me on this thread and these required some thought. Do you want a try?

"on subjects that are of little interest to 99% of the populace".
If that was the case, there wouldn't be any readership. You are wrong here as there is a heavy readership (Total 6880 within a short time.)

But because you don't read these posts, you think that nobody else reads them too.

Thanks for coming along though. But I advice you to ignore this thread if you are not interested in the subjects.

Cheers,

Gerry

[stolwyk]

USD: 84.39 (+0.42); Gold: 414.3 (-2.5); Silver: 6.63; Euro 1.2855(-0.0118; oil 46.48.

Some US news:
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2005/month/02/day/04/daily/index.html



Alan Greenspan Speaks! Friday - Feb 4, 2005

8:45 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to speak at session on the international economic system at the Advancing Enterprise 2005 conference, in London. No Q&A .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan pushed the dollar sharply higher Friday morning, stressing easing, not rising, pressures on the nation's current account deficit.

Greenspan said cuts in the nation's budget deficit along with a higher household savings rate should reduce foreign borrowing. In a plus for the deficit as well as inflation, he said import costs have been held down so far by competition.

He also noted that Asian buying has helped support the dollar and helped boost U.S. Treasury prices. Reaction in the market to the comments was swift, with the dollar gaining back losses following the earlier release this morning of soft January jobs data.

Greenspan's remarks are part of a speech he is delivering to a London conference. There is no question and answer scheduled.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Paul van Eeden: IMF Gold Sales
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/feb042005.html


G7 Aid Proposal for Africa in Jeopardy as U.S. Says No:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7539769

NB: Canada is a G7 member as well and certainly won't back a proposal to sell Gold.

[stolwyk]

The refusal of the ECB to raise interest rates (their economy won't stand it) means that the Euro has dropped to 1.2756. That has taken the stress off it and enabled it to better compete with the US in third countries as well as in the USA itself.

The rise of the USD to 85.13 (+0.66) is not really good news for the US, no matter how the spin doctors portray it. Their competitiveness has decreased. The war in Iraq is continuing and Bush has asked for $US 100 mill more. So, unless the US consumption decreases, I can't see much change in the deficits. US Imports could be cheaper.

I think that Greenspan wanted a stronger dollar as he was worried about the financing of the Current Account Deficit. (Snow, the US secretary wanted a weaker dollar.)

Gold is 413.1 (-1.30), silver 6.51 and oil is 45.40 (+0.12).

Wallenwein has written some controversial articles from time to time but can never be ignored:

The G-7 Effect: Selling into Dollar-Strength
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2005/0206.html


Gerry

[stolwyk]

Current data: USD 85.15 (+0.05); Euro 1.2771; oil 45.37 (-0.03), gold 412.3 (-0.7) (low 410.6); silver 6.53.

NY gold ends at 4-1/2-mth low on firm dollar...
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;PZS5IS1UFWY5KCRBA ELCFFA?type=goldMktRpt

Clive Maund: Update:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund020505.html

Jim Puplava, FRank Barbera: The lull before the storm:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[stolwyk]

LATEST:
USD has come down 84.95 Euro: 1.2812 Jap 105.5 oil 45.5 Gold 413.3 (+0.8) Silver 6.59

NY gold ends firmer; platinum near 1-month low:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;MBYO53I20WDLGCRBA E0CFFA?type=goldMktRpt


China and the Final War for Resources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/ridley020805.html

Researching new uses for gold:
http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=2403044

Extract:
"The other main new industrial use for gold would be as a layer in high-temperature superconductors for use in electricity transmission and electrical devices, Thompson said.

Autek is also busy working on a host of other applications for gold, including biomedical uses as an anti-cancer treatment".
___________________________________

WILL THERE BE A TRADE WAR?
9 Febr.
When the USD Index rose fron 80.8 to the now 85.11(+5.3%), people started smiling.

And they pointed to the Euro which had fallen from 1.36 to the now 1.277 (-6.6%).

Unfortunately, in the real world, Europe would be smiling as it can compete better in the US and in those countries which are linked to the $US. Also, the pressure came off this currency at the same time.

US exports will be dearer also when imported by Europe or other countries, so the US export rate could be down and the Trade Deficit will increase, given time.
Imports into the US could be somewhat cheaper and we shall be waiting on the Consumer reports.

US OUTSOURCING is continuing and while this means cheap goods going into the US, one Commentator correctly said that we miss the multiplier effect compared with making the products in the US.

To reflate an economy, the multiplier effect (Make the money go round) is an important function. It is not the same without a full multiplier effect.
_________________________________

As soon as the US notices that the trade deficit gets worse, expect them to act. There will be an exchange between them and other countries, each pointing out the protective measures the other party has taken.

Sofar, there has been a procedure to deal with this but expect hot exchanges and action. The US being squeezed on the trade front will be a leader in these skirmishes, particularly with the Senators wanting action.

They will need to be a bit careful with China who are holding a stack of US dollars.

Yes, it could be ugly indeed.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

The record 2004 trade deficit of 617.7 Bill was 24.4% higher than that in 2003, itself a record.
The Dec trade deficit was 56.4 mil against 59.3 mill in Nov.

The data shook the dollar Index which is now 84.55 (-0.49), oil is 46.97, gold 417.5 (+4.30), Euro 1.2872 (+0.0062), silver 6.94.

The Indians and Chinese once finishing their holidays, should be buying gold. Barclays supposed to launch their ETF this month.

Market report:
http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_ZA&storyID=7596388

[stolwyk]

Latest:
Silver has been very strong for some time. Ir rose 23 cents (3.2%) to 7.17. USD 84.57 (+0.06) Euro 1.2865 Gold 420.5 (+2.90) oil 47.16.

NY gold & silver settle higher on fund buying

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH42597_2005-02-11_19-35-20_N11508215

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Stolwyk: US TRADE DEFICIT, OIL PRICES AND THE USD INDEX.

An important part of the US trade deficit is the price of oil. It affects the US Index as wel.

So, the price of oil was somewhat lower in Dec and the Trade deficit fell somewhat.

Unfortunately, this won't continue for the following reasons:
1. US production is becoming less and less.
2. There are question marks over the OPEC supply.
3. There are problems with other countries' supplies; some are starting to import, having been exporters before.
4. An immediate and critical issue which can't be solved: Russia says that supply is down, Venuzuela, the fourth biggest supplier is to sell to China as well.
Not much is known about the current contracts with the US; be assured that the Chinese will be getting their share.
5. The new Cartel with China and Russia as the leaders; India may join and so do Brazil and Venuzuela.
One function is for the members to supply energy to China-China will have priority.
6. The ruthless locking in of resources by China who supplies the infrastructure needed, credit, troops and military installations to protect that energy and other commodity supplies.
7. The current unbalanced Middle East where the Saudi regime is in difficulties, the low supply from Iraq because of sabotage; the role of IRAN in Iraq and the need for US troops to protect this oil supply.

Summary: As the price of oil rises (shocks may occur), the US has little protection because of a low dollar, hefty deficits and the increasing negative effects from outsourcing.
These shocks to come will affect the USD Index and the trade deficit which will be permanently in the red with danger signals flashing.

And so, the Current account deficit will remain high no matter what spin is being used.
The Budget deficit has been fudged, so no luck there either.

The Spill-over effect could affect many countries who will also pay a lot more for oil anyway.


It must be obvious by now that all this talk about $25 for oil is just ridiculous, unless one gets a 1930 year's style depression and even then it won't be cheap.

The interaction of China, Russia and other countries will give priority to China energy needs: much energy will be locked out and the US may have to start conserving energy in as big way.

And it will be sooner than one thinks.



So, the next question is:

How long will the US remain in Iraq?

Answ.: The Iraq position is important not only because of the oil of course but it also gives some additional indirect protection to Saudi and other interests.

It is a Central position and having an airfield there is important.

There has been some talk about the US troops going home after setting up the Iraq army.

That would normally take 2 years but the top staff will take somewhat longer. However, there are elements of the old army who could serve if they can be trusted.

But would the US troops then go home?

By then, the strategic and urgent importance of having all that oil in Iraq can't be overlooked.

It is vital that US has a guaranteed access to that oil-See previous posts.

They certainly would like to keep their troops there even if there are token returns to the US.

Gerry

[Mick100]

Have started reading Klares new book "blood and oil"

You may be interested Gerry

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0805073132/financialsenseon/002-8528092-0920001



Mick

[stolwyk]

Thanks Mick,
Someone on HC keeps saying that oil will be $25 and that is why I wrote that post.

______________________________

PAUL VAN EEDEN:
Dollar weakness and higher interest rates: how it works

February 11, 2004
For more than a year now I have been commenting that the dollar has to decline in the face of rising interest rates for the gold price (in US dollars) to sustain a meaningful rally. Every time I make that comment, someone points out that rising interest rates typically result in stronger currencies. Therefore, why would the dollar fall if interest rates are rising?

History repeats, but never exactly. While there are often precedents for current situations the circumstances are rarely identical, so we have to be careful when we make assumptions based on past experiences or events.

It is true that higher interest rates typically lead to stronger currencies, but the US balance sheet, income statement and dollar are in uncharted waters and never has globalization been as prevalent as it is now. Japan owns roughly seven hundred billion dollars worth of US Treasury securities and China has in the order of two hundred billion dollars.

Were it not for Japan and China, the US dollar would be trading a lot lower than where it is today. During the past decade the United States has racked up enormous trade deficits with those two countries. Under normal circumstances the net amount of dollars (trade deficit) paid to foreign corporations would be sold on foreign exchange markets. As the trade deficit widens, ever more dollars are sold, putting pressure on the dollar to decline. Eventually the weakening dollar would cause the prices of imported goods to rise and the rising costs of imports would ameliorate the trade deficit. This is the free market’s natural balancing system.

But Japan and China wanted to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Put another way, they wanted to prevent the dollar from falling in response to the rising trade deficit. So instead of selling the excess dollars into the foreign exchange markets they used them to buy US Treasuries. This kept the dollars out of the foreign exchange markets and helped the US finance its budget deficits.

It was a win-win situation -- or so it seemed. The US could spend, and spend, and spend… and Japan and China would send their savings over to finance the binge. Now, however, the situation has gotten so out of hand that there is mounting pressure on China to let its currency, the renminbi, float against the dollar.

Calling for a stronger renminbi is in essence the same as calling for a weaker dollar. Now let’s go back to the mechanism that kept the renminbi, and the Japanese yen, from rising against the dollar: excess dollars were invested in US Treasuries instead of being sold into the foreign exchange markets.

If the Japanese and Chinese are to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will start selling more dollars into the foreign exchange markets and that means they will have less dollars to invest in US Treasuries.

This is not trivial matter. Between January and November last year, Japan and China bought about thirty percent of all the new Treasury securities the United States issued. Even a small decline in the amount of US Treasury purchases by Japan and China could have a dramatic effect on US interest rates.

If the demand for US Treasury securities (bonds) declines then bond prices are likely to decline as well. US interest rates are determined by US bond prices: if bond prices fall, interest rates rise. Therefore a decline in demand for US Treasuries from Japan and China means an increase in interest rates for the US.

Now let’s go back to the free market mechanism again. If Japan and China allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will sell more of the dollars that are accumulating from the US trade deficit into the foreign exchange markets. This additional dollar-supply will result in the renminbi and yen strengthenin

[stolwyk]

DISCUSSION OF SILVER COMPANIES.

I have looked at a number of "SILVER" companies. Ideally, it ought to be a combination of silver and gold, the latter being a valuable product which will easily finance the extraction of silver. That is important with current low silver prices. More gold means that less ore is needed.

I am also trying to get at least over $US15 in situ resources for $US1 Cap. Market. There doesn't seem to be many cheap silver stocks around; the Silver Wheaton (TSX) is not cheap although it is pure silver, bought in.

1. BSG.AX reached 12.1. (One buys $A12.1 of resources for $A1market cap). They have the ideal silver/gold combination and are trying to extend the resource by drilling.

Their latest driling results haven't been too spectacular but they have other projects as well. I would like to see a Resource/$1 market Cap number greater than 15.
They have a total resource of 126 mill ounces of silver and some 1.177 mill ounces of gold. There is more gold to add to that.
See how drilling results pan out. (They have about 5 drilling machines out there on the Palmarejo project).

2. IMR.TSX looks good but has a silver/lead mixture:
http://www.imaexploration.com/s/Home.asp

"To date, IMA has defined an Indicated Resource of 268 million ounces of silver and 1.1 million tonnes of lead (50 g/t cut off, 80.8 M tonnes at 103 g/t silver and 1.45% lead), quickly making it one of the world's largest and purest major silver deposits".

The Navidad project has a number of trends with deposits-See map:
http://www.imaexploration.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=98476&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Soil-Sampling-Reveals-a-6-km-Mineralized-Trend-Parallel-to-the-Navidad-and-...


They have 43.6 mill shares, fully diluted 49.1 mill. The amount of resources someone can buy for $CAN1 market cap is $CAN 22.17. Considering that drilling is continuing, it is a good start. Current price $3.81 (+21cts or 5.8%, yesterday). Many bigger silver stocks have risen by 5-6% yesterday. Although individual deposits are not necessarily that large, their location is reasonably close.

3. WESTERN SILVER CORPORATION (WTC.TSX)
About 43.3 mill shares, price $12.70 (+80 cents). No Resource base is available:
http://www.westernsilvercorp.com/04_news/wcnr04_08_30.php

We need to wait for more data before any conclusion can be reached. It seems that the market increases the share price anyway.

4. SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC (SSO.TSX).
http://www.silverstandard.com/s/Home.asp

Shares: 51.6 mill., fully diluted: 55 mill. Share price: $16.97 (+82 cents). Market Cap $CAN 875.65 mill.

Resources: Gold 2.252 mill ounces. Silver: 954 mill ounces; total in $CAN: 9645.61 mill or per $Can market cap, one gets $Can11.05 in resources. These concern mostly gold and silver, a desirable combination:
http://www.silverstandard.com/s/ResourceSummary.asp

Bear in mind, there are quite a few locations. Some smaller projects may not be feasible at current prices. They do have projects at a staggered rate of development and ought to produce once the silver price improves. Drilling is proceeding.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.
Data subject to audit. AG: $US7.20/ounce AU: $US420/ounce; $US=$CAN1.238 or $A1.27235

[Baa_Baa]

No part of this letter/article may be reproduced, copied, emailed, faxed, or distributed (in any form) without the express written permission of Paul van Eeden. Everything contained herein is subject to international copyright protection.
---------------------------------------------------------------

[clearasmud]

China doesn't want to appreciate its Yuan so it will be to little to late as far as the US is concerned.

America will create trade barriers against China to balance its deficit plus possibly tax oil much higher seeing how most is now imported.

China will have a hard landing temporarily deflating resource prices and stocks(except energy)

Also the govt budget will move to balancing therefore further rectifying the trade deficit.


My thoughts.

Any other thoughts?

Jerry
I hold BSG and AVM for my gold stocks.
Going in fairly blind though.

[stolwyk]

I am not sure about the US taxing oil as it is the most important product, any economy runs on.

Here is something positive to read:

IMF GOLD SALES - 24 REASONS WHY IT WILL BE A NON EVENT
Kenneth J. Gerbino:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/gerbino021105.html

I should add that one of the IFM members, Canada is against any sale as well.

Gerry

[whiteheron]

Stolwyk

You obviously have a technique for valueing gold / silver companies ( ref your post of 1.36pm )

I will be most appreciative if you could lead me to where I can find some more in depth info on this eg do you just use proven reserves at current spot prices or some other calculation ?
As each company has its own cost structure the cost to produce an ounce of gold equivalent can vary greatly from company to company

Is your 15 to 1 ratio just a broad brush guide , or does it have some well proven foundation ?

Just curious , as i may add this to my research and evaluation techniques if it is a really good guide

I feel that silver will have considerably more upside than gold in the next several years --- just a personal opinion but gathered from much research

I hold BSG and MMNO

Time will tell

[stolwyk]

It is really subjective. I bought Canadian golds on a basis of 30 or more: virgin country, no infrastructure. It is a quick way of getting one answer.

Depth of deposit, access (some deposits can't be accessed), grade and a few other items come into it. So, I would be careful using that method because that number needs adjusting after the facts are known.

There is a big difference if you have one large deposit compared with that same quantity of metal spread over several locations with some long distances between them. As a rule, I wouldn't like the latter.

It is not a tool for valuing gold but it will give me a fair idea when comparing stocks. 15 is too low for a silver/lead deposit as extraction costs can be high. The concentration of silver does matter.

I prefer gold/silver. I prepared this as silver prices are rising I believe and the combination gold/silver is the most effective.

"Silver" companies rose 5.5-6% on Friday so the stage is set.

I have BSG but need some good drilling results. I really want to get closer to 20, if the 5 drills can produce that.

AT THE MOMENT, AMERICAN/CANADIAN STOCKS ARE BEING PRICED ON EXPECTED INCREASING SILVER PRICES. They are quite prepared to add another 6% even when that number is 10.
_________________________________________

To check some old gold prices, I suppose you have seen this:
http://www.kitco.com/ On the right above the gold graph is a facility which gives you the prices on any date.

There is also this:

"NEW! Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies. Scroll down to experience our newest live currency exchange format". This is in the middle of the page.

Gerry

[whiteheron]

Thanks Stolwyk

The 15 to 1 ratio is obviously a rough guide only

I have looked at the "historical daily gold chart " on the Kitco site and note that the the same feature is also available for silver ; this will be most useful in enabling me to do some of the comparisons that I want to make

[stolwyk]

W,

Here is a Silver site from Morgan. May have some graphs?

http://www.silver-investor.com/

http://www.silver-investor.com/archives.html

If you like you could delete another thread, that one about the gold/silver graphs.

Gerry

[whiteheron]

Stolwyk

Thanks , plenty to keep me busy on these links

I believe that I have now managed to delete the thread on gold / silver charts
Had previously tried , but without success

The historical gold and silver charts on the Kitco site will give me pretty much the info that I am looking for I think

[stolwyk]

Silver squeeze speculated (Thanks Yellowcake)
http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=34560

TAYLOR ON DEFLATION:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor021305.html

Gold: 422.3 (+1.80); silver: 7.26 (+7) USD 84.11 (+6) Oil 47.80

Gerry

[combi]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Silver squeeze speculated (Thanks Yellowcake)
http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=34560

TAYLOR ON DEFLATION:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor021305.html

Gold: 422.3 (+1.80); silver: 7.26 (+7) USD 84.11 (+6) Oil 47.80

Gerry



Hello Gerry all excellent reading thank you.

In your opinion are the top three gold stocks in AU and are their any AU stocks that could give exposure to silver?

I'm not keen on investing outside of NZ and AU currency.

Thanks in advance
Combi

P.S. I have taken note of your comments on SMM which is a gold/uranium stock. I missed the last run and was hoping to buy in when the 24.5c gap filled but to date the buying pressure has put paid to that plan. This may well be one of those occasions that it just keeps going up???

[stolwyk]

Combi,
The biggest gold stocks in Aussie could be NCM (But they have a lot of copper) and BDG. I have both of them. There is some controversy about BDG's gold resources, however both have threads here.

As to silver, the ones I know are BSG (A lot of silver and some gold) and MMN. I am not keen on MMN's management and have BSG-See thread.

As to SMM, see the thread on the current topic page. I am quite heavy into it and have done some work on it. Basically, I consider that the current share price pays for the "Other projects and Resources" and this means that the URANIUM is free.

However, the Queensland Govt stopped uranium mining in Queensland some time ago while the Greenies were against Reactors. I can't say when SMM will get approval but they decided to drill for more anyway later this year. Their share now is 70 mill lbs of U308 and they want to double it.

There are 2 things to remember:
1. Their other resources could be valuable. Later in April (after the wet season) they'll be drilling a "gold zone" which is 7-10 km long.

2. Uranium prices are inccreasing and so do share prices. So, while waiting for approval (when?) this may continue and upvalue the deposits as well as the SMM share price.

So, these items could take place while one is waiting for approval of uranium mining.

Will SMM continue to rise? HotCopper people are interested and are becoming aware of the positives and negatives. I made some additional calculations today which I transferred to the SMM thread here.

The HC people would have read those after 4 pm so we wait for any outcome tomorrow, if there is any. Lately, there has been some strong firming of Uranium stocks overseas.

Another exploration stock is SIM, more speculative. (Thread available)

Apart from that, I have nothing to add.

Thanks for reading my posts and I hope you will find time to call in for another read now and then or you may want a discussion.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

Latest: USD 83.98 (-0.60) Euro 1.296 (+0.0106) Gold 425.6 (+5.10) Silver 7.28 (+0.1) (Got some IMR.TSX).
Oil 48.0 (+0.2)


-gold, silver, copper rise on sinking dollar:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;KENFUJWDUPJ3WCRBA EZSFFA?type=goldMktRpt


Worst over, blue sky ahead:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/feb142005.html


Taylor On Deflation:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor021305.html

[stolwyk]

Latest

The Gold price has been rather static till last night when it started to creep up. It is now 427.3 (+2.20). The USD fell to 83.46 (-0.2).

While the US keeps tightening rates, the Europeans are buying US Bonds (The EU didn't increase rates). However, recent speeches from Greenspan have unnerved the USD.

The Euro is 1.308 (+0.0056), Silver 7.34 and climbing, oil 48.25
__________________

NY gold ends at 3-week peak; silver extends gains:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;2D2QWJOINV0TOCRBA E0CFFA?type=goldMktRpt
_______________

Peter Schiff: Strong Retail Sales Reflect Inflation Not Growth:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/feb152005.html

[robbo]

Gerry,,

Terrific contribution, analysis and worthy of The Crownie's Pub's best series of Posts for February Award.....I say, I say.....:):)[^][^][^]:)

Many sincere thanks, and let me ASSSURE you I really do appreciate the WORK, the TIME, and the thoroughness with which you go, to: "put genuine flesh-on the-bone"--and the considerable Skill and Thought your Posts DO contain.

Thanks a Million Gerry,

Regards,

a grateful.........Robbo :):)

[stolwyk]

Thanks Robbo,

It is always pleasing to have some positive comments from a person who can pick shares well.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Still little change but oil rose to 49.01 (+0.79)
USD 83.49, Euro 1.3033; gold 426.9, silver up 7 cents to 7.42 (has been rising lately).

No news from the US. A holiday there on Monday.

Contending Gold Perspectives:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton021805.html

__________________________

INFLATION-DEFLATION TUG:

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/aden021705.html

[stolwyk]

Financial Sense: GOLD ROUNDTABLE.
A very good audio IMHO:

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/021905.html

[stolwyk]

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% in Oct and 0.5% in Nov; inflation can't be too far behind.

Jason Hommel:

Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations
Report # 54

http://www.silverstockreport.com/reports/silverstockreport54.htm#list

[stolwyk]

Little change but the US will be back to normal trading again.
The USD is 83.55 gold is 427 Euro 1.3066 oil 49 and silver 7.39.

Sofar, N Maund's prediction of a much higher dollar hasn't born fruit. That was TA. However, fundamentally there is no real reason for the USD to rise. It is locked in IMHO. Inflation is coming to the fore now, so the next few weeks could be more interesting.

There is little economic comment to offer. That means waiting for further developments. There is always something brewing but takes time to make its impact felt.

Here are two writers:

Hans Schicht: Takeoff
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/schicht022005.html

Alex Wallenwein: The Dow-Gold
CROSSOVER .. Part II
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein021905.html

[stolwyk]

SPECIAL:
As mentioned before, the USD is boxed in. Inflation is on the way and interest rates are expected to rise.

Normally, a rise in interest rates should be good for the USD, but with these huge deficits and losses being made by foreigners holding long Bonds, there is a problem.

It is possible that gold will rise due to people mistrusting financial instruments, eg Bonds.

At the moment, USD 82.91 (-0.64), could be still falling, Euro 1.3166, oil 49.72, Gold $428 (+$1.9), silver 7.47

Some news from the USA tonight:
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2005/month/02/day/22/daily/index.html

[stolwyk]

SPECIAL

Some time ago, Rusia mentioned it would diversify its currency reserves and the USD fell.

This matter of countries getting partly out of the USD has been discussed for quite some time but somehow the FED managed to control the issue and little was heard till last night when South Korea announced it would diversify theirs as well.

It is possible that a chain reaction could occur in the Far East and this fear resulted in a sharp decline of the USD, a rise in the Euro, Oil and Gold.

Latest: USD 82.45 (-1.10) oil 51.45 (+2.44) Euro: 1.325 (+0.0189) GOLD 434.3 (+7.6), cut through the 430 resistance. Silver:7.51 (+0.10)
See what happens.

In the meantime, inflation is expected.

A lower dollar may force higher interest rates to keep the loyal US Bond holders "happy". About the last thing to be in would be the US Bond, I think, with possible Capital losses coming up.


Market news:
Dollar crumbles as holiday ends:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&guid=%7B6F9B98E2-2C5F-4462-8A97-CC4AF6481599%7D

Extract:
"He noted that George Soros, a former hedge fund manager and well-known dollar bear, told a Jeddah economic conference the U.S. currency has been weakened by a switch to the euro on the part of Middle East oil exporters and Russia.

"Callow also cited news reports that Bahrain's central bank governor said he anticipates a larger role for the euro in international reserves as Europe's economy starts to grow and capture a bigger part of world trade".
__________________________________

Canadian Gold stocks immedialy react to a stronger dollar, moving up with a much larger percentage than gold did (Gold: +2.8%, Can stocks: 4-6%)

_________________________________

Good reading: John Lee:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/feb212005.html

Extract:
"With record deficits being old news and lack of eventful catalysts, it will be interesting to observe how long it takes for gold to challenge $450 and how XAU reacts to gold's advance.

Silver paints an exciting story, 1 oz silver maples are still selling at below US$10 each. We pinch ourselves for every coin we get".

[Mick100]

Richard Russell on the markets:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/russell022205.html


.

[stolwyk]

Latest: USD 82.88 (+0.20), Euro 1.320, oil 51.5 (+0.33) Gold 433.7 (high 436.5).
The artificial inflation rate rose by only 0.1% but the core rate the month before, rose 0.8 %.

The marked tried to assess the Korean statement-See my previous post:
Dollar Scare Reveals Fragile Support (Thanks Dub):
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7468d91e-860b-11d9-b506-00000e2511c8.html

The writer says:
"For sure, the market overreacted to reports that the Bank of Korea wanted to reduce the share of dollars in its portfolio.

"What the Koreans actually said was that they want to diversify out of low- yielding US Treasuries into higher-yielding securities, which could include riskier US assets as well as non-US government bonds. And they intend to do so by diversifying the flow of reserves, not the $200 billion (£105 billion) stock".
__________________________________________

COMMENT: By freezing the US reserves to $US200 bill, there could be 3 outcomes:
1. Korea may not buy more US Bonds in the future.
2. $US200 bill may sound a lot now but as the economy expands, it will become less and less as a ratio of the the overall currency reserves which should grow in normal conditions. So, there will be a loss of dollars.
3. They may buy US assets or they may not. They didn't say they would buy US assets.

Central Banks are notoriously secret so there is no guarantee that they will hold the $US200 bill in toto. Part of it can be slowly fed into the financial trading system.

It is strange that Russia, Japan and now Korea made statements on the USD which they later amended.



Interesting and it could happen:
Puplava: THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/feb222005.html



Theodore Butler:
WHERE IS YOUR SILVER?
http://www.investmentrarities.com/02-22-05.html

[stolwyk]

There is still unease about statements made by some countries about the dollar. It is in the open and Greenspan can't put a spin on it.

LATEST: Euro: 1.325 (+0.0064).

Gold is erratic: $434.9 (+1.40) Silver 7.31 USD 82.62 (-0.24), as mentioned before, it is trapped and no amount of TA will push it. I do note again that many TA people thought that the USD would go for another big run and the message was spread far and wide.

A colossal blunder that was. How can it with still growing deficits and this talk from countries wishing to "diversify" their currency reserves.
Oil is moving ahead: $51.49-Not good news for the US economy and deficits.
_____________________________________

Some previous market news:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8EA97D6A%2D77F1%2D4E6A%2DB0FB%2D 659AC947C651%7D&siteid=mktw

Paul van Eeden:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/feb252005.html
___________________

The WGC (World Gold Council)has prepared the 2004 Gold Supply and Demand Data. The supply ran 124 tonnes short. On HC I estimated it at 20 tonnes but the CB's put some up for sale in the last quarter:
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

Gerry

[Mick100]

Crysal Clear - Mike Hoy

A long read but a good one


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0225.html

.

[45south]

Hi Mick100
A good read indead.
I think it was one of your postings I spotted MGX. A big thank you.
After going through Co. reports I decided it looked pretty good. Picked up MGXO. Hope you got heaps yourself.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by 45south

Hi Mick100
A good read indead.
I think it was one of your postings I spotted MGX. A big thank you.
After going through Co. reports I decided it looked pretty good. Picked up MGXO. Hope you got heaps yourself.




it was not me that mentioned MGX.
I don't hold any unfortunately

Sounds like iron ore prices are going to remain strong for another couple of yrs so there may be more upside in MGX yet

cheers

Mick

[stolwyk]

USD down 82.44 (-0.24)

Oil 51.49

Gold 436.5 (+2.10)

Silver: 7.40

Euro 1.3275

The search for gold's new uses:
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=63608

Financial sense-Audio
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

[stolwyk]

Listless and uncertain:
Dow: -75, USD 82.51 (-0.41) Euro: 1.323 Oil 51.68 Gold 435.3

There are significant price rises on some metals. This and the current oil price should bring in inflation, I think. Note that the CPI is an artificial one, anyway.


Gold tops $437; metals broadly higher:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={CE7D007A-F2C0-4C03-8874-B38B1D04CC69}

[stolwyk]

Frank Barbera

StagFlationary Collapse: Prelude to "The Greater Inflation" Part 1 of an Approaching "Perfect Storm"

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Barbera/feb282005.html

[stolwyk]

Page 23 has a reference to Silver-See date 13 Febr. I was asked about the minimum silver, a silver company should hold.

The following is my personal opinion:
Ideally, the silver should be in one project rather than spread over the continents; the exception being if there is enough silver on one or more projects. A project may have some very close locations with silver. A massive open pit may cut costs.

I like my silver companies to have at least 200 mill ounces or working to that goal. My IMR.TSX has some 268 mill and BSG.ASX has 126 mill. BSG has some 6 drills working so I expect progress.

The best combination is gold and silver, the reasons being that gold will subsidize the costs and one may be able to start earlier when lower prices prevail.

Obviously, a reasonable gold grade is desirable.

My IMR has silver and lead. Fortunately, the massive silver base makes up for the non-existence of gold. The share price hasn't really risen, though.

BSG has a good silver/gold ratio of gold 1.8 gr/tonne/silver 196 gr/tonne.

I am not suggesting you should buy these. Page 23 lists others. Some investors may prefer other stocks.

What the inmmediate future of silver is, I don't know.

Gerry
Holds IMR and BSG
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

_________________________________________

Coppper and Molyb are often associated with gold stocks. Molyb prices can be unreliable:

Molybdenum's Perfect Storm
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=39

[stolwyk]

USD stronger at 82.78 (+0.28) oil 51.68 Euro 1.317 (weaker) Gold 432.3 Silver 7.21.

The Aussie Current Account is bad: 7.1% of GDP.

Forrest: The Daily Resource - 3/1/2005
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=37

[stolwyk]

Gold went down as far as 428.5 but is now 432.7. USD 83.07 (+0.31) Euro 1.314 Silver 7.30 oil 53.05 (+1.37)

The Gulf Research Council:
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2005/Midas/The%20Role%20of%20Gold%20Digital.pdf

The Gold cartel at work:
http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1109777602.php

[stolwyk]

Overnight US data was somewhat positive and gold dropped. It is 429.4 now. Oil increased to 53.57 and the USD is now 83.3 (+0.2).

Here is Clive Maund:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund030305.html



GOLD - The Weekly Gold Perspective
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2005/0303.html

[stolwyk]

Although the job growth of 262,000 was somewhat positive, the Syrian situation was negative. In addition, the President of Venezuala was quite belicose about oil:
USD 82.53 (-0.73) Euro 1.3241 Gold 433.9 (+4.1) silver 7.33 (+12) OIL 53.78 DOW: +1%

COMMENT: US CONSUMPTION, EXPORT, DEFICITS.

The US is in a squeeze as most informed readers know.

Let me summarize the position:
1. Even though some of the latest news is positive, the USD sank to 82.53.
2. Greenspan has made quite a few speeches lately-one reason possibly as a reaction to talk of countries diversifying dollar assets but the USD hasn't really moved. He may have managed to stop it going down further for now.

3. A higher Dollar only makes the deficits worse because it will be more difficult for the US to compete and they will suck in more "cheap" imports, hence greater trade deficit. The value of overseas assets will be less.

4. A much lower dollar will bring inflation, cuts back on consumption, increase interest rates and decrease income from taxation.

Exports will compete better; however the manufacturing base for goods has been destroyed, there is little capital formation, so the "quantity" of exports may only very slowly increase. The value of exports of goods was only 7% of GDP (Richebacher). It was 35% for Germany.

The biggest problem the US has is that normally consumption is about 67% of GDP; in Oct last year, it ran over 80%. Choking off consumption and increasing interest rates could rapidly lead to a recession or depression.

Oil is now 53.57 and that would certainly cause problems at a lower USD. Transport will be more expensive and the real CPI must rise.

Translated into lower dollars, the value of overseas assets will increase.

There was talk about tolerating a lower dollar; however, the FED didn't act for fear of upsetting other countries who were either holding big USD balances or were powerful enough to indicate that they didn't want more competition from the US.

Asking the Chinese to revalue won't be too successful as their labour rates are very low indeed, adding another 30% to these rates won't make much difference to the price of most goods to the USA.

In any case, the exhorbitant margins of the USA importers can be reduced somewhat and the consequence will be that US imports won't decline much unless the dollar is drastically lowered and that won't be tolerated unless by default the reality takes over at a later stage.

In these conditions, GOLD cannot be allowed to rise too much as otherwise the pressure on the USD will be too great.
_________________________

The conclusion is that the FED will try to maintain present conditions, be everyone's friend and not apply drastic surgery. Interest rates are benign.

The result is that those countries with heavy USD balances will either secure the choisiest resources and the USA will be eaten from inside out by countries buying the best US assets which are allowed to be sold.

In the meantime, the Budget deficits and Current Account deficits wil be added onto and according to Stephen Roach, about 80% of the world's savings goes into financing the US deficits.

These are the penalties to pay for trying to maintain some equilibrium.

The alternative would be stagflation and worse, a possible worldwide depression.

That is my opinion,

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Bud Conrad: Is Gold a Better Investment than Oil?
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=42


Peter Schiff's
Economic Commentary:
Strong Employment Numbers Portend Worsening Economic Imbalances, Revisited
http://www.europac.net/#



A Hamilton: Tactical Silver Trend 3:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton030405.html

[stolwyk]

There have been complaints about some Australian Gold Companies having a hard time as costs have risen-someone mentioned 30% in the last 12 months.

South Africa is in a worse state as in many cases they mine deep underground, costs have moved up and the USD is R5.855

So, if an investment were to be made than I prefer an explorer who is of good size, and when the mining starts, costs to be low.

If this situation remains for an extended time then those with low costs will win while the supply of gold could become less each year.

I do have gold explorers and most are Canadian. One is an Aussie: NCM.AX:

Comp----Bought----Price--Latest---Profit--Percent
NDM----29/9/04---5.25----7.02------1.77----33.7
NG.WT---6/5/04---2.25----5.25------3.00---133.3
WRM.WT12/7/04---2.35----2.76------0.41----17.4

NCM.AX--7/9/04--14.92---17.42------2.50----16.8
NNO.WT-6/10/04---1.72----2.08-----0.36-----20.9
CVV-----1/12/04---0.39----0.61-----0.22-----56.4

The mean profit increase is 44.9%. The mean date of buying: 28 Sept. 2004. (184 days ago) So, I had these stocks for 50.4% of a full year.

On 28 Sept. $CAN=$A1.10427 and 1.02796 today. Based on 5 stocks, the paper profit needs to be adjusted by -5/6*6.1%= -5.1%.

Thus, the all over net paper profit since 28 Sept. 2004 is *39.8%*.

NCM, and NG.WT are takeover/merger candidates, IMHO. Another mentioned before: WRM, is busy merging with Gold Corp (G.TSX)

Current: Euro 1.324; $US 82.53 Gold 433.9 Oil: $53.78

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

Something different:

R. Chapman: TRAIN WRECK OF THE WEEK:
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/trainwreck.php?Id=66&PHPSESSID=bc6b9e3818086eea8e55e4891f21b7dd




Will Opec governments invest in more gold?

THE ROLE OF GOLD IN THE GULF:
http://www.gata.org/The%20Role%20of%20Gold%20Digital.pdf

(A lengthy report; one way is to select those chapters dealing with gold)

[stolwyk]

A stagnant situation. USD 82.77 (+0.23), Gold 434.2 silver 7.34 oil 53.65


Both Australia and S.Africa are incurring increasing costs:

SA: The Rand bites Gold and Uranium:
http://www.finance24.com/Finance/Economy/0,,1518-25_1672100,00.html


Australia: shortages and costs hit mining:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12461878%255E643,00.html

Comment: We saw less gold being produced last year and it seems that the same will happen this year. It is clear that the SA situation is bad and I feel sorry for the lay-offs.

I invested in 3 Australian stocks: NCM, BDG (Gold) and BSG, the silver/gold stock. I can't complain.

I do believe that in Aussie, one needs at least 2 mill ounces of gold on one location or locations very close together, to make it worthwhile. It needs low costs of course.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

A good night for Gold: 440.2 (+$6), a high of 440.7// Silver 7.51 (+0.15)

The loser was the USD 81.98 (-0.8) oil 54.6 (+0.71) Euro 1.334

NY gold rises to '05 high as dollar sags:
http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;A0U23WPDSKL0WCRBA EKSFEY?type=goldMktRpt

Paul van Eeden: Gold is not the main act
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/mar072005.html

[stolwyk]

Sorry, had a problem with my machine, hence being late.

On Friday, Greenspan will give a speech. Reports say that he said that at the current USD level, the Trade Deficit is starting to level off. Trade deficit data will be given on Friday.

Comment: It is widely agreed that the the USA has very severe financial structural problems which are not easily solved.

Just adding another high deficit to the previous total, won't make the problems go away. It still needs to be financed.

There is talk of the EEC wanting to raise interest rates and as a consequence the Euro rose to 1.339. The USD is still falling.
_________________________________

Current: USD 81.74 (-0.36) oil 54.77 gold 440.6 (has been 443.5) silver 7.58.

Gold, Silver Hit Year Highs, Dollar Falls:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=7856113

Forest: The Daily Resource - 3/9/2005
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=37

Gerry

Gerry was the problem with the machine The nut behind the wheel.

[stolwyk]

The Japanese Govt finally admitted they too would diversify their reserves and this statement increased the Euro to 1.343 while the USD fell to 81.56. After midnight, we'll have the US trade deficit data coming up and Greenspan's statement.

Gold: 442.3 (+2.2) oil 54.20 Silver suffered somewhat: 7.50 (-0.06); the Indian Govt will sell some of their holdings:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1045512.cms


Interesting article:
Puplava, yesterday:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Clive Maund:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

[stolwyk]

Again there was a blowout in the Trade deficit to $58.3 mill. The structural problems remain and will get worse as deficits are accumulative and need to be financed.

LATEST: Euro 1.346, USD 81.38 (-0.19) Gold 445.7 (+3.60--a high of 446.8). Silver 7.54 (+.06) Oil 54.75


From Econoday:
"Exports continued to show only sluggish growth, rising 0.4% to $100.8 despite a more and more competitive dollar. The lack of growth may reflect a sluggish European economy, though Asia remains strong as well as smaller markets in developing regions.

But imports continue to rise and rise sharply, up 1.9% in the month to $159.1 billion. Gains were widespread but may also reflect the end of Chinese textile import quotas, though Commerce Department officials said it is too early to gauge the effect. The economy here is strong as is our appetite for foreign goods.

The rise in imports is more striking given a 5.3% fall in petroleum imports for the month. The ongoing rise in oil prices combined with unrelenting domestic demand for fuel and industrial feedstocks point to a rising petroleum import imbalance in future reports -- and with it rising overall imports and yet wider trade gaps".

Gold gains after trade data, Greenspan
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEEA1EE03%2D5E2E%2D41E5%2DB26C%2D A94483A6620F%7D&siteid=mktw


Paul van Eeden: What is the bond market telling us?
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/mar112005.html

Norcini: Annotations on the bond market
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/norcini031005.html

[stolwyk]

SOME MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT HOLDING GOLD / STOCKS

Much time has been spent recalling the past over and over again and trying to make some valid comparison with the present.

The good news is that no valid comparison can be made due to the following factors:
1. US deficits as a percentage of GDP are astronomical.
There are severe structural problems which can't be solved under present conditions.
2. Oil has been abundant at low prices in the past (most of the time). Not now; higher oil prices immediately affect the economy and the USD.
3. China was not very well known in the past. Now the US gets 40% of imports from there and it is rising.
4. Outsourcing was not known; now it is becoming large scale.
5. The financial and emotional negative strains as a consequence of items (3) and (4) are tremendous.
6. In the past access to raw materials was not a problem. Now it is, due to China locking in vast quantities of commodities. This increases overal pricing from oils to nickel to coal.
7. In the past countries had a good manufacturing sector. The US now hasn't and this will be followed by Europe.
This impedes the velocity of money amongst other problems. The GDP now depends more on profits made on imported goods rather than exported goods. (Exports of the US are 7% of GDP; from Germany: 35%)
8. The high US consumption encouraged by low interest rates is continuing. It is 2/3 of GDP but was over 80% in Oct last year.
9. US policies are geared towards consumption; if this is reduced, then it will find itself in a recession or depression with enormous debt levels accrued.
10. More time is spent on terrorism than solving the US crises. Central Banks have been supportive of the US position but a change involving diversifying US reserves has been noted and this will put more pressure on the USD.
________________________

The holding of Gold has often been opportunistic: to suit the conditions. One such opportunity arose in the seventies and I believe, we have one now. The duration may last from one to several years.

All negative parameters of the US economy have converged to present this opportunity of holding Gold regardless of interference by the Gold Cartel.

A major reason -and not widely understood- is that Gold is held as Insurance. If there is a major breakdown in the US financial system or the world's, eg a derivatives melt down, then even holding Uranium shares won't save the Investor.

Obviously, terrorist acts including those from governments are there to stay. Transport of lethal gasses and miniature special bombs does not really present a problem.

It is here where gold should play its role.

IT IS A MISTAKE COMPARING THE PRESENT WITH THE PAST.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

____________________________________________

Venuzuela supports Iran (Thanks SP):
http://english.people.com.cn/200503/12/eng20050312_176550.html

[stolwyk]

A couple of articles to read:


America's Total Debt Report - Update 2005
$40 Trillion - and Soaring:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hodges/2005/0313.html




March 10, 2005

Turning Chinese
So Much for the New Bush Economy
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

The February payroll jobs figures released last Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a continuation of America's descent into a third world service economy.

The Bush administration cheered the creation of 229,000 private sector jobs (which still leaves Bush with a net private sector job loss during his reign). However, once we look at the details, the joy vanishes: 174,000 of the jobs, or 76% of the total, are in nontradable services.

Administrative and waste services (largely temporary help and employment services) account for 61,000 or 35% of the new service jobs. The remainder are accounted for by construction (30,000), retail trade (30,000), healthcare and social assistance (27,000), and waitresses and bar tenders (27,000).

The US has apparently lost the ability to create high productivity, high value-added jobs in tradable goods and services. The ladders of upward mobility are being dismantled by offshore production for home markets and outsourcing of knowledge jobs.

The BLS reports that the number of employed US technical workers has fallen by 221,000 in six major computer and engineering job classifications during 2000-2004. The largest drops were suffered by computer programmers, followed by electrical and electronics engineers, computer scientists and systems analysts.

So much for the new economy that economists promised would take the place of the lost manufacturing economy.

America's remaining job market is domestic nontradable services. While India and China develop first world job markets, the US labor market takes on the characteristics of a third world work force. Only jobs that cannot be outsourced are growing.

The Bush economy has seen a loss of 2.8 million manufacturing jobs, a rise in the unemployment rate of 1.2 percentage points, and a stagnation in real weekly earnings.

How bad will things have to get before economists realize that outsourced jobs are not being replaced? Indeed, many American companies are ceasing to have any presence in the US except for a sales force.

Cisco's CEO, John Chambers, declared recently: "What we're trying to do is outline an entire strategy of becoming a Chinese company."

Cisco is establishing a new R&D center in Shanghai. The US corporation manufactures $5 billion of products in China where it employes 10,000 people.

That is just one company, and there are many doing the same thing. The result is abandonment of the American work force by American corporations. Little wonder the Bush administration is the first administration in 70 years to have a net loss of private sector jobs.

If one US company or a few move offshore, their profits improve and consumer prices are lower. However, when work in general moves offshore, American lose the incomes associated with the production of the goods they consume. Domestic production is turned into imports, with the result that America draws down its accumulated wealth in order to pay for the imports on which it is dependent.

The dollar's value and status as reserve currency cannot forever stand the trade and budget deficits that are now part and parcel of America's economic policy.

Unless there are major changes soon, America's economic future is a third world work force with a banana democracy's worthless currency.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be reached at: pcroberts@postmark.net

[stolwyk]

This is an important week: Tonight the US "International Capital". This signifies if the US Bonds are still being supported by foreigners/Foreign Banks.

The USD rose to 81.95 (+0.54) so it seems that the Bonds are being supported just now.

Tomorrow night the US "Current Account" -that may be not too hot.

Current: Euro: 1.337 Gold 440.5 (-$5.10) silver 7.37 and oil 55.62 (+0.50)

Gold trades weak on dollar's gains:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7491F8BF%2D580D%2D44C8%2DA773%2D 51796DD44B1A%7D&siteid=mktw
______________________________

COMMENT: WILL THERE BE AS WAR WITH CHINA?

The advantages / disadvantages of the US shifting its manufacturing to China, including its R@D in many cases, has been discussed.

The process is accelerating and before long China will have some very valuable US businesses on its soil.

And the longer the US waits, the more sensitive parts of its industry will be relocated.

China has the US in a vice:
At the moment it has a considerable amount of $US. That is their weapon which can be used to neutralize the financial system in the US in an emergency. It doesn't do that because the present system benefits China. But the US needs to take that into account.

Later on, once the bulk of the US industry has been shifted to the US, this country will feel itself in a weak position should the supply of Chinese goods suddenly stop.

The Chinese wouldn't take that course easily of course but once the Far East is stronger, it can divert the normal supply to the US to these and other countries.

Put it this way: They can later nationalize all US owned assets and that could be trillions. That would be an enormous loss to the US and a prelude to war.

One should remember that by now the US is missing a lot of Chinese goods it normally gets and it has to do without it very suddenly.

By then, both forces could well be equally strong with the Chinese having a lot of forward cover and plenty of resources.

As an alternative they can impose heavy taxes on the profits and then buy up the industries they want for a song.

They are talking about the destruction of the Middle Class in the US. In the future, unemployment will be rife there and conditions of work will be marginalized.

The US will be hollowed out as it is; there is nothing to stop the HQ's of companies moving somewhere else. It will become a third rate power even without a war with China.

So, if the Chinese say, please come in with your industries, think hard. Then think how you can do without it. It is a checkmate position really in present conditions.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

As expected, the application for US Bonds by Central Banks was very good. Caribbean Banks seem to play a role lately.

Tonight the Current Account will be presented and it will be interesting to read the size of the deficit.

Gold slips in wake of capital flows data:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B326C5AF9%2D998E%2D45AA%2DA717%2D 4BB724AA0967%7D&siteid=mktw

USD 82.13 (+0.21) oil 54.98 Euro 1.33 gold 440.5 silver 7.38
_______________________________________

COMMENT:
Sofar, I haven't found any article discussing the strategic disadvantages of having an US industry in China, so I thought it worthwhile doing something on it.

Imagine that more and more industries shift to China: Cisco is thinking of shifting their R&D department there as well.

At the moment the US imports 40-45% of goods from China and I believe that China imports 16% from the US. I would say that a significant component would be mining machinery and equipment.

I am not sure if Caterpillar is already there but the point is that the more China produces using US factories on their soil, the less it can import from the US.

There is now talk of producing cheap cars in China for the US market. The US Unions will be against that but assume a quota is approved for the US.

That would make things tougher for the US industry and the US exports will also not increase in constant dollars as the Chinese will take over a lot of the US trade with third countries with regard to cars and heavy construction/mining machinery.

Altogether, not good for the USD.

Unless something is done that is where we are heading.




Welcome to The Korelin Economics Report
http://www.kereport.com/

[stolwyk]

From Econovan:

Highlights
"The U.S. current account deficit widened sharply in the fourth quarter, to $187.9 billion vs. $165.9 billion in the third quarter.

Swollen by imports of oil and consumer goods, the goods & services gap widened to $171.1 billion vs. $155.9 billion in the third quarter.

The current account gap jumped sharply in 2004, to 5.7% of GDP compared with 4.8% in 2003. Were it not for yesterday's big spike in Treasury International Capital data, today's current account report would have reawakened concern that foreign investors, sooner or later, will begin to sour on U.S. assets".

My Comment: Prepare yourself for a 6.5% deficit for 2005--Not good!
_______________________________________

USD 81.58 (-0.55)
oil 57.04
Gold 443.2
silver 7.45


Metals end higher; gold back atop $444
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B136A5D60%2DD026%2D4443%2D8939%2D 2D90ABF415BD%7D&siteid=mktw

[stolwyk]

Latest: Euro 1.3375 USD 81.82 (+0.2) oil 57.0 Gold 438.2 (-5.0) silver: 7.35 Aussie 0.793 DOW -0.06%


NY gold ends below $440 as dlr bounce hits metals:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7935944




Global Imbalances Are Getting Larger: It's A Europe Thing.

Benjamin Godley
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/godley031505.html

Extract (End):

"The strength of the euro is chiefly due to the foreign currency policies of the Asian economies. This euro strength is not sustainable. Providing the Asian economies maintain their dollar link, I cannot see the euro rising dramatically against the dollar, possibly falling again due to euro weakness.

"Only, when the market begins to take account of an overvalued dollar and euro, will gold begin to move due to its own strength, rather than due to the "dollar-gold" link.

I believe this is occurring faster than some analysts predict. It will be important to watch European fiscal spending policy and ECB responses, for these could shape the next movements for gold prices.

Any indications of currency debasement, and falling euro and dollar values will be long-term gold positive".

[clearasmud]

Gerry, my bank does YEN or HK dollars.

Would either of those currencies be undervalued?

[stolwyk]

It is difficult to say what currencies will do well in the long run.

Some time ago, I mentioned to people that the Euro could be a good thing. However, stresses are now appearing.

I want to do an article on USD, Euro and gold this weekend perhaps.





America's Has-Been Economy

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

"A country cannot be a superpower without a high tech economy, and America's high tech economy is eroding as I write.

The erosion began when US corporations outsourced manufacturing. Today many US companies are little more than a brand name selling goods made in Asia.

Corporate outsourcers and their apologists presented the loss of manufacturing capability as a positive development. Manufacturing, they said, was the "old economy," whose loss to Asia ensured Americans lower consumer prices and greater shareholder returns. The American future was in the "new economy" of high tech knowledge jobs.

This assertion became an article of faith. Few considered how a country could maintain a technological lead when it did not manufacture.

So far in the 21st century there is scant sign of the American "new economy." The promised knowledge-based jobs have not appeared. To the contrary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a net loss of 221,000 jobs in six major engineering job classifications.

Today many computer, electrical and electronics engineers, who were well paid at the end of the 20th century, are unemployed and cannot find work. A country that doesn't manufacture doesn't need as many engineers, and much of the work that remains is being outsourced or filled with cheaper foreigners brought into the country on H-lb and L-1 work visas.

Confronted with inconvenient facts, outsourcing's apologists moved to the next level of fantasy. Many technical and engineering jobs, they said, have become "commodity jobs," routine work that can be performed cheaper offshore. America will stay in the lead, they promised, because it will keep the research and development work and be responsible for design and innovation.

Alas, now it is design and innovation that are being outsourced. Business Week reports ("Outsourcing Innovation," March 21) that the pledge of First World corporations to keep research and development in-house "is now passé."

Corporations such as Dell, Motorola, and Philips, which are regarded as manufacturers based in proprietary design and core intellectual property originating in R&D departments, now put their brand names on complete products that are designed, engineered, and manufactured in Asia by "original-design manufacturers" (ODM).

Business Week reports that practically overnight large percentages of cell phones, notebook PCs, digital cameras, MP3 players, and personal digital assistants are produced by original-design manufacturers. Business Week quotes an executive of a Taiwanese ODM: "Customers used to participate in design two or three years back. But starting last year, many just take our product."

Another offshore ODM executive says: "What has changed is that more customers need us to design the whole product. It's now difficult to get good ideas from our customers. We have to innovate ourselves." Another says: "We know this kind of product category a lot better than our customers do. We have the capability to integrate all the latest technologies." The customers are America's premier high tech names.

The design and engineering teams of Asian ODMs are expanding rapidly, while those of major US corporations are shrinking. Business Week reports that R&D budgets at such technology companies as Hewlett Packard, Cisco, Motorola, Lucent Technologies, Ericsson, and Nokia are being scaled back.

Outsourcing is rapidly converting US corporations into a brand name with a sales force selling foreign designed, engineered, and manufactured goods. Whether or not they realize it, US corporations have written off the US consumer market. People who do not participate in the innovation, design, engineering and manufacture of the products that they consume lack the i

[stolwyk]

Current: USD 82.07 Euro 1.3325 gold 438.9 silver 7.35 oil 57 $A 82.07

NY gold recoups losses to end up and above 10-day low
Fri Mar 18, 2005 02:32 PM ET:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7947783

Forest: The Daily Resource - 3/18/2005
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=37


Paul van Eeden:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/mar182005.html

[stolwyk]

THE EURO, USD AND GOLD

1. The Euro.
At the moment Europe has little growth, Germany being the weak link in the chain with unemployment rising to 11 mill. France and Italy are breaking the limit of deficit rule. Overall, the situation looks bleak.

While some countries favour a more aggressive role for the Euro, any sharp rise must impede its badly needed exports so Europe wouldn't favour a currency of more than 1.32, I think. Even that may be too high. Currently it is 1.332

2. The USD.
Due to massive deficits and various negative trading outcomes, even good news doesn't move it much. It is 82.1 at present and 83 could be the limit for the time being although 82.5 is a challenge.

The Central Banks don't want it to go down if they can control it as for many countries it would mean loss of exports and they will try to keep the USD within limits of say 0.81-0.825.
If the USD rose too much (it won't) then the US exports will fall and most likely the demand for goods would rise.

The US consumption level as % of GDP is about 70% but her exports of goods was only 8% (Germany: 35%); the US can't afford a recession with massive debt levels around, so it tries to keep the economy moving in positive territory.

It will need to finance its debt and uses "inflation proof" Bonds ( The real inflation is about 2% higher). Foreign Central Banks are the chief holders of US treasury securities. Caribbean Banks are buying US Bonds and there is a suspicion these are owned by the FED: http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

At the moment 80% of the world's savings is financing the US Debt. The Current Account could be higher than 6.5% of GDP this year.

It appears that the present value of the USD is being supported by agreements, I think.

3. Gold.
This market has been tampered with for a number of years. Till about 1994 it was part of a very good gold/oil ratio and it is thought that market interference started at that time with the result that we have a reaonable high oil price of $57.0/bl but a low gold price of $439/oz.

Commentators are adamant that the FED is scared of a high gold price as it would show up inflation and could knock back the USD. I believe that particularly now gold is being dumped to keep the price low.

4. Summary.
Ignoring other currencies it seems to me that the Euro, USD and Gold are aligned more or less by agreement and that conscious efforts are made to maintain the above mentioned ratios in the hope that some growth is achieved by all parties.

Perhaps, some US problems could be solved with time (and the US needs time), however, the massive US deficits are growing , outsourcing is increasing, unemployment will grow while much R&D is being shifted to China as well.

Altogether a poor recipe for wealth accrual. CB's (Central Banks ) will support the US up to a certain level. Not to do so will result in a collapse of the US financial system and a massive setback of their own economies as well.

The question is: when will this "idyllic" situation break? What will cause it? Will it be a still higher oil price driving the US into a recession or worse still. Will Stagflation take care of a lot of US debt?

Gerry

[woddonnee]

well well well gerry, now you have a whole forum under your control (hotcopper) where anyone who dare raise concern about you can have their account closed immediately (by you). Its a great pity as I have enjoyed being a member of hotcopper over the last 5 years, warts and all, now it has cancer and your it stolwyk
Rod

[stolwyk]

W.
All posters at HC are subject to the same rules. The site has been greatly improved in the last 3 months when Moderators have been operating and apart from improving quality, the number of posts has increased from 1400 to 1800 approaching 2000 per day at times.

This is because HC presents a much better medium now particularly to female posters.

Obviously, H/C is in charge and I only carry out my duties.
Apart from that, every person, including you is responsible for what he/she says on a chat site to posters and moderators.

Contrary to what you like to disseminate, I don't close H/C members' accounts. It is up to H/C Management to warn, suspend or ban a member. It is regrettable that you see it otherwise.

I am a voluntary Moderator there and spend a great deal of time trying to make the H/C site even more attractive. H/C Management is well aware of that although you don't appreciate that.

Most of the difficult work has been completed and refinements will continue. H/C will do very well with or without you.

It is regrettable that you raise the matter here instead of on H/C but knowing you, I guess you are looking again for a tactical advantage and are perhaps trying to get the sympathy from others. That is how you operate.

Since you mentioned that you left H/C, I take it that you won't return. Please confirm.


Gerry Stolwyk

[stolwyk]

THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A GLOBAL INFLATIONARY EVENT

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/appel031705.html



The Death of the Dollar
By Jason Hommel
March 18, 2005
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommel/mar182005.html

Suggest one overlooks the last few parag; apart from that it does show the plight of GM


Gerbino on gold and base metals:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Gerbino/mar182005.html

[Misc]

Wot happened to the Moder-ramper thread ?? Gerry a mod here also ???
Heaven forbid ,the analogies to Hilter appear spot on ,,, oh well , at least we know this thread wont be wiped LOL

misc