Currencies, Gold, Silver and Oil

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report - Gold Makes a New 17 Year Closing High
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1127940606.php


CURRENT: USD 89.03 Euro 1.205 Gold 469.9 Silver 7.36 Oil 66.24


U.S. Economy: Durables Orders Rebound as Demand Rises
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aaBGHL3sTavM&refer=home


Global: Globalization of the Political Economy
Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050926-mon.html


"The longer the political economy of globalization remains at odds with the powerful trends driving cross-border economic and financial-market integration, the greater the likelihood of a hard landing in the not-so-distant future. I would still place about a 40% probability on such an outcome at some point during the next 12-18 months."
_________________________________

Newmont's Lassonde stays with $525/oz gold target
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=254710+28-Sep-2005+RTRS&srch=gold

Forest: Resources
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=302

Gold Poised to Create New Generation of Millionaires
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1127916001.php

One of the Seven Signs of the Apocalypse
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1127916000.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – The XAU Closes at New 8 and ½ Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128028651.php

CURRENT: USD 89.3 Gold 472.3 Silver 7.50 Oil 66.50


U.S. Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Rises at 3.3% Rate
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aJLrumFd_rCg&refer=news_index

Comment: About 75% of GDP is Consumption. The GDP number has been manipulated.


FRANK BARBERA: RELAX & ENJOY THE RIDE!!!
5 Reasons to Stay Long in Gold Stocks
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/0928.html

Fannie Shares Fall the Most Since 1987 on Dow Report (Update5)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aC4US240HQTw&refer=us
_______________________________

Forest: Resources:
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=304

Extract:
"Buying of gold by central banks may also be boosting the precious metals. Altavest Worldwide Trading analyst Thomas Hartmann told Marketwatch, somewhat cryptically, that “more reports circulated [Tuesday] about central banks dumping some currency in favor of gold.”

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Consumers Still Not So Confident
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128112633.php


CURRENT: USD 89.35 EURO 1.203 Gold 468.83 Silver 7.44 Oil 66.24


U.S. Personal Spending Falls 0.5%; Incomes Drop 0.1%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aRMDXh4Gc6LU&refer=home

Global: Batonless--Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

COT Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1128108889.php
COT Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1128108933.php

US Mortgage rates jump to 5-month high
Average for 30-year, fixed-rate rose to 5.91 percent, Freddie Mac reports: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/

Forest: Resources
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=306

[stolwyk]

FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

War and Reconstruction--David Chapman
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chapmand093005.html

We're Awash In Liquidity (Aren't We?)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/ci093005.html

GREENSPAN'S GREATEST GIFT--by Richard J. Greene
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1001.html
________________________________

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse--by William R. Clark
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450

Extract:
"While central bankers throughout the world community would be extremely reluctant to 'dump the dollar,' the reasons for any such drastic reaction are likely straightforward from their perspective – the global community is dependent on the oil and gas energy supplies found in the Persian Gulf. Hence, industrialized nations would likely move in tandem on the currency exchange markets in an effort to thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy of dominating the world's largest hydrocarbon energy supply. Any such efforts that resulted in a dollar currency crisis would be undertaken – not to cripple the U.S. dollar and economy as punishment towards the American people per se – but rather to thwart further unilateral warfare and its potentially destructive effects on the critical oil production and shipping infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Barring a U.S. attack, it appears imminent that Iran's euro-denominated oil bourse will open in March 2006. Logically, the most appropriate U.S. strategy is compromise with the E.U. and OPEC towards a dual-currency system for international oil trades".

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Strong ISM Whipsaws Markets
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128371943.php

CURRENT: USD 89.93 Euro 1.192 Gold 465.6 Silver 7.39 Oil 65.44

Forest reports that" 94% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is still closed, with 35 production platforms completely destroyed. Thirteen oil refineries also remain shut, representing some 15% of US capacity".

Gold & Silver Stocks - The Monthly Upcycle Has Rolled Over And Probably Peaked
http://news.goldseek.com/JoeFRocks/1128347942.php

Paul van Eeden: Sticking to my guns
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=128

2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/resource_domestic/year/2005/weekly/41/index.html

2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis (INTERNATIONAL)
http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/resource_international/year/2005/weekly/41/index.html

Construction Spending Climbs to All-Time High in August As Housing Gains Renewed Strength
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051003/construction_spending.html?.v=4

U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Unexpectedly Accelerates
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aUZj4vUY__aI&refer=home

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Fisher Flips Markets
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128457958.php

CURRENT: USD 89.9 Euro 1.1923 Gold 466 Silver 7.36 Oil 63.9

Inflation stubborn: Dallas Fed's Fisher
Interest rates likely to rise, and Fed won't stand in way
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC6883D1E%2D95E8%2D4938%2D8A59%2DE78F124E24 81%7D

Hurricane Reports-Energy:
http://www.electricity.doe.gov/about/about.cfm?section=about&level2=home

ADEN SISTERS: MEGA BULL MARKET UNDERWAY
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/aden100405.html

Gold Falls as Decline in Energy Costs Eases Inflation Concern
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aIfkYwtReRlY

[stolwyk]

Inflation Fears Spook Markets
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128544394.php

CURRENT: USD 89.28 EURO 1.204 GOLD 465.8 Silver 7.40 Oil 62.32

Pounding drum on inflation
Fed presidents continue to warn of higher rates
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BCD767AD2%2DA407%2D4FFF%2D9679%2DFEA5662E15 31%7D

Global: Globalization of the Political Economy
Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050926-mon.html

Forest: Resources
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=310

THE CHINA SYNDROME
Part 7: Anarchy in the Middle Kingdom
by Joe Duarte, MD
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2005/1005.html

Nothing Has Fundamentally Changed
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1128520800.php

[stolwyk]

Silver Closes at Over 6 Month Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128630816.php

CURRENT: USD 88.47 (-1.29) Euro 1.217 (+0.016) Gold 473.5 (+7.4) Silver 7.56 (+18 c) Oil 61.74 (+0.38)

Euro Advances After Trichet Says ECB Prepared to Increase Rates
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=apfw090jEnZk&refer=home

Colossal Reversal Underway in Energy-Money Relationship
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13455

Squeezing Americans Dry
http://news.goldseek.com/SFG/1128622491.php

Venezuela moves reserves out of US Treasuries
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20051005/bs_ft/fto100520051509342003;_ylt=AqX2E92cpKOVef7gAv7iXWD 2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Fed's Fisher Says `Inflation Virus' Must Be Stopped
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aOeRq_GAEGK8&refer=home

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

GOLD ..... figure we will see a strong rally in
the gold price, until about 21-24102005 ..... :)

happy days

yogi

:)

[stolwyk]

Gold Near 18 Year Highs; Silver at 10 Month Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128740400.php

CURRENT: USD 88.95 (+0.48) Euro 1.212 GOLD 474.5 Silver 7.70 Oil 61.84 (+0.48)

COT REPORTS:
GOLD: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1128713644.php
SILVER: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1128713730.php

COMEX gold rallies to a 1-week high as funds buy
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh6599 5_2005-10-06_18-40-42_n06190336_newsml

Energy Fuels Fears of Broader Inflation
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-inflation6oct06,1,4539346.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

Who is financing the current account deficit?
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=313

The US Government and their Irish Pennants
http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1128693602.php

TWO SHOES & ROGUE EVENT
by Jim Willie CB
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1007.html

[stolwyk]

OIL AND GOLD PRICES

G. Stolwyk

The "PREDICTION OF OIL AND GOLD PRICES" of 21 Aug., page 40, serves as an introduction:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20620&whichpage=40

1. OIL
I didn't want to predict the oil price for the remainder of 2005 as I could'nt gauge at what price the pressure on US Households and ensuing inflation were going to make a heavy impact. It subsequently turned out that because of heavy private US debt, $US70/barrel was too much for the time being. Interest rates were also rising and this combination meant more debt was incurred everytime the tank needed filling.

Incomes did'nt keep pace with inflation, the latter as well as other data were manipulated anyway so the real CPI was much higher than the published one.

At the moment, the Oil price is about $61.80.
One could argue that oil is not expensive if real inflation were taking into account. however, oil at $45 in a depression could feel just as expensive as $75 during a boom.

So, will the oil price come down hard in a deep recession?
Assuming there is little inflation, there are a number of problems which on their own or in concert could still maintain firm prices:
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East necessitates a risk premium. Venezuela, one of the US suppliers is taking an increasing hawkish stance and is increasing its influence in South America.

Most large Oil Companies are not increasing oil reserves unless by takeover. Dutch Shell had to heavily reduce their reserve estimates twice and that could happen to others, particularly if the wells are not performing so well after peaking.

There is a ruthless competition for oil resources with the US, China and India as the main combatants. I did mention previously that this results in locking up of resources by some State companies who can afford to do that. So, the oil is withdrawn from exploitatation: ''Sino-U.S. Energy Competition in Africa'':
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=378&language_id=1

Then there are the usual impediments. eg Hurricanes, sabotage. The US is borrowing petrol from Europe and is raiding its strategic reserve as well; so, this oil / petrol probably needs replacing. The winter is near but there still are a number of US refineries and wells out of action.

Europe will be getting a lot of gas/oil from Russia while they also import from OPEC and Norway.

Summary: The US is trying to save some energy but this is being negated by less production from their own oil fields: one report mentioned that Oil imports accounts for 40% of the increase in Trade Deficit during the last 3 years.

Substitutes are being used but the quality of oil from Tarsands is much lower than desired, extra costly refining is necessary and overall costs of extracting are increasing. It wil be some time before the influence of a substitute can be really felt, I think.

2. GOLD
The combination of much US Debt, too many dollars in circulation (Other countries are having the same currency problem), higher oil prices, higher interest rates, higher inflation, a wobbly stock market and a shaking out of the US housing market are promoting GOLD.

Massive Hedgefunds are constantly looking for new investments and are now backing Gold. They can be big enough to defeat the Commercial shorters in the right conditions and may well feel that all positives for Gold to rise are aligned and thus are pushing up the Gold price. The support of large Hedgefunds is important because they make the job of the Fed's Gold Cartel much more difficult.

The average US citizen feels the heat from inflation while reading "there is little" and because of better dissemination of the terms GDP and CPI now understands that these are manipulated data. Confidence declines.

There is discussion about a recession coming and the damage from the latest Hurricanes has'nt helped either: what is also driving Gold is the increasing Budget deficits and debt to be expected.

The coming week will have a lot of important US Data coming in and may affect

[Mick100]

" Many do expect some problems with the markets and the replacement of Greenspan by Bernanke? in January will introduce another risk premium and hence be good for Gold IMHO

=====================================

A very valid point Gerry
One that hasn't had much press yet but I'm sure it will as the time gets closer.
,

[stolwyk]

FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

WALL STREET WAKES UP
by Peter Schiff
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1007.html

Silver/Oil Ratio Extremes:
http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1128701572.php

Peak Silver-Edgar J. Steele
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/steele100705.html

[stolwyk]

USD 88.95 Euro 1.21 Gold 474.6 Silver 7.72 Oil 61.79

ABOUT THE US FED:

The Federal Reserve is PRIVATELY OWNED
http://www.worldnewsstand.net/today/articles/fedprivatelyowned.htm


Billions for the Bankers-Debts for the People
The Real Story of the Money-Control Over America
http://www.usa-the-republic.com/banks/federal%20reserve.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Continue to Make New Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1128976452.php


Current: USD 89.44 Euro 1.203 Gold 476.7 Silver 7.79 Oil 62.23

This will be an interesting week:
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2005/month/10/day/11/daily/index.html

Global: Pondering Delphi-Stephen Roach (New York
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Wallenwein: GOLD OR GOLD STOCKS:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein100905.html

Overnight COT Report:
http://www.silver-investor.com/dailyupdates/dailyupdate.html

Is a Dollar Crisis Looming?
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1128954903.php

EU fears China's rising R&D spending
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/3a7563b0-38fa-11da-900a-00000e2511c8.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Continue to Make New Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129062693.php

CURRENT: USD 89.79 Euro 1.198 OIL 63.86 Gold 475.3 Silver 7.78

NY gold ends at 18-year high, buoyed by fund buying
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh6446 7_2005-10-11_19-06-12_n11522713_newsml

Gold futures end near $480 as oil rises
At highest since December 1987; silver, copper also gain
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B57665CAE%2DA67B%2D4D40%2DA061%2D 9D2953A33856%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

GERBINO: Oil Peak Projection and Assumptions
http://news.goldseek.com/KennethGerbino/1129054445.php

Oil Rises on Concern Recovering Fuel Demand to Strain Supplies
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aGaikHtkKrR8&refer=us

BENSON: Squeezing Americans dry
http://www.prudentbear.com/

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Markets Correct
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129149774.php
Graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

CURRENT: USD 89.45 Euro 1.202 Gold 471.6 Silver 7.73 Oil 64.16

Gold futures top $482, then end lower
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE301530A%2D5C05%2D47A4%2DB460%2D B5520AAD9613%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

Oct. 7: MARC FABER: Why the FED has no other alternative but to print money:
http://www.quamnet.com/fcgi-bin/columnists.fpl?par2=5&par3=1

Economic Commentary-Seven Isn’t Such a Lucky Number After All
http://www.sortweb.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2108_MerrillLynch.pdf

What's Behind the Interest Rate Conundrum?
Aubie Baltin CFA, NFA, Phd.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin101105.html

Butler: A Surprise Silver Endorsement
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1129127613.php

Sell Everything and Buy Gold and Silver and Oil
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1129125723.php

[stolwyk]

Inflation Fears Continue
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129236623.php

CURRENT: USD 89.61 Euro 1.202 Gold 471.2 Silver 7.70 Oil 62.87

U.S. Sept. Import Prices Increase 2.3%; Rise 1.2% Excluding Oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aw_gb2lSniLo&refer=us

U.S. Investment Income Close to `Tipping Point': John M. Berry
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=a3_fwP85dZzM

Roulston: Melt-Down or Muddle
http://www.kitco.com/ind/resopp/oct132005.html

Oil Spreads Wealth in Russia, and Russians Are Spending It on Foreign Cars (Registration required - worthwhile)
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/13/business/worldbusiness/13cars.html?oref=login

Study says US consumers use credit for basic costs
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-12T210201Z_01_DIT275611_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-CREDITCARDS-DC.XML

Date: 1/9/81: GREENSPAN: CAN THE U.S. RETURN TO A GOLD STANDARD?
http://centre.telemanage.ca/links.nsf/articles/F9611DCCCC8E1C2585256982004BFA17

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Inflation Rages
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129322438.php

CURRENT: USD 89.18 EURO 1.207 Gold 469.0 Silver 7.78 OIL 62.63

Dollar drops on jump in inflation
Headline figure shows brisk increase in inflation
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?tool=1&guid={46E2FDE9-C3A9-49F7-B902-BF75BFA6A1CD}&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&

Global: Deja vu 1994--Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Van Eeden: Dr. Murenbeeld’s gold price forecast for the coming year
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=129

COT Gold Report: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1129318406.php
COT Silver Report: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1129318463.php

Chapman: International Forecaster
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1129302021.php

_______________________________________________

14 Oct.: WILL THERE BE A CRASH IN OCTOBER?
No need to take my word for it, but I think that the FED PTT is already carefully watching every trading session.

There are a number of reasons why there may not be any Crash:
1. A Crash will have a flow-on effect and could result in a heavy worldwide recession/depression. Greenspan has been trying to avoid this for years by liquifying the market when necessary.

2. Greenspan is retiring in January and of course wants to avoid a crash ("Apres mois le deluge").

3. There are some curiously very small losses made by the DOW, a sign that the PTT is very active, IMHO.

4. If there were to be a Crash, then people will be panicked into holding gold because the current poor US financial condition will be conducive to investment in gold/gold stocks. Greenspan does'nt want people to invest in Gold.


There are posters who want a Crash so they can cheaply enter the market.

This is an opinion of course,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

TRANSCRIPT: PUPLAVA: THERE IS NO PLAN "B"
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1014.html

Take my hedge fund ... please
Like a worn out comedian hedge funds are having a tough, sobering 2005
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/14/technology/hedgefunds/
_____________________________________

SUA: BLOCK SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION

Friday, October 14, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com

The Silver Users Association (SUA) is urging the Securities and Exchange Corporation (SEC) stop Barclays from creating a silver backed Exchange Traded Fund, according to Reuters. In a desperate move to block the ETF, the association made a plea to the SEC that argued that the economy could suffer if silver prices spike.

Barclays filed a registration to create the first silver ETF, however it is still pending regulatory approval. The Silver ETF would be similar to the popular gold ETFs, which are responsible for purchasing about 250 tons of gold worth $3.4 billion. The trust would take delivery of millions of ounces of silver bullion and store it in England. However, some speculators believe that there isn’t enough silver stored above ground to fulfill investment demand for a silver ETF. If the ETF is blocked for this reason, it could be seen as a bullish confirmation for investors.

The SUA was created in 1947 to lobby for companies that purchase and consume silver. Admitting that supplies are tight, the SUA fears that taking silver from exchange warehouses could be enough to set off a shortage. “We don't endorse a silver ETF because of the potential liquidity problems it would create,” the SAU wrote.

The admission by the SUA is astonishing given that all the major players in the silver industry have maintained for a number of years that the silver is plentiful and that the analyses of silver bulls as regards supply were wrong. In admitting that supplies are tight, not only does the SUA vindicate a long-standing argument of the silver bulls it also comes perilously close to an admission that the market has indeed been controlled by those forces which have wanted low, steady prices.

By turning to the SEC, the SUA is admitting that the status quo - manipulated as it apparently is - should be continued by any means possible. Unfortunately, a manipulated price is, by defintion, a price that must rise somehow, someday. Perhaps, say the silver bulls, that day is now".

[stolwyk]

The oracle of Denver speaks, and he's usually right
http://www.netassets.co.za/equities/naOpinions/opArticle.asp?opinionID=2040

India gold buying spree
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/173724/1/.html

______________________________________

Value News
First gold fund for Thailand
12:01:50 GMT, 05 October, 2005
Thailand is set to have its first gold fund when TMB Asset Management launches its planned 1.2 billion baht fund.

The company believes gold prices will continue to rise, which will enable it to begin the operation.

TMB's Gold Fund will be an overseas investment fund linked with streetTRACKS' Gold Trust.

TMB's managing director Jotika Savanananda, told the Bangkok Post: "Investing in gold is a good alternative investment as gold is a lasting asset with inherent value although its prices could possibly fluctuate from time to time."

Gold as a commodity investment has given an average yearly return of nearly ten per cent since 2000.

©Adfero Limited

+++++++++++++++++++++

USD 89.22 Euro 1.21 Gold 470.1 Silver 7.8 Oil 63.74 (+1.17)

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Back in the Green
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129604404.php

CURRENT: USD 89.78 Euro 1.20 Gold 474.0 Silver: 7.77 Oil 63.27

Global: The New Inflation-Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Oil Prices Rise As Another Storm Brews
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051017/oil_prices.html?.v=13

Danielle DiMartino: California could be hit hardest
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/DN-dimartino_17bus.ART.State.Edition1.947ea4b.html

Takeover activity in Asia at record high
http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20051016_29056_167094.html

Wallenwein: A Cog In The Fed's Wheels
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein101505.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Inflation Fears Continue
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129667834.php

Current: USD 90.10 (+0.47) Euro 1.196 Gold 471.2 Silver 7.77 Oil 62.09

U.S. September Producer Prices Rise 1.9%; Core Prices Rise 0.3%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=anuzXz4so1ps&refer=home

Wilma set to become 'intense' hurricane in northwest Caribbean Sea
http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2005/10/18/afx2283275.html

Taylor On Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor101705.html

Refco Files for Bankruptcy, Flowers Buys Futures Unit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ayE42f6Zzhbs&refer=us

Who will succeed Greenspan?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051018.wxrgreenspan18/BNStory/Business/

[stolwyk]

Gold Falls Most in 3 Months as Speculators Shed Metal Holdings
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=a15gmeU0zSHE&refer=australia

CURRENT:
USD 89.8 (-0.3) Euro 1.199 Gold 464.2 Silver 7.59 oil 61.56

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Metals Get Thrashed as Markets Roar
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129754451.php

Laird: Competitive Devaluations Coming:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird101805.html
Comment: That happened before the 1929 crash as well. Of course, some of it is going on all the time.

Willie: BANKERS VERSUS US FED
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie101805.html

21st-Century Bank Run
Watching a $4 billion company fall apart in a week.
By Daniel Gross
http://www.slate.com/id/2128196/

Who Will Bail Out The Bailer?
http://www.forbes.com/home/management/2005/10/17/pensions-guaranty-bailout-cx_lm_1017pension.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Markets Fall
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129840641.php

CURRENT: USD 89.37 (-0.4) Euro 1.205 Gold 461.9 Silver 7.61 Oil 59.92

Gold falls; three-session loss over $13
Metals indexes decline; copper hits fresh record then falls
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD19F2F9B%2DB572%2D48FD%2D9795%2D 93606A8D5671%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

U.S. Stocks Wipe Out Yesterday's Rally; Pfizer, Oil Shares Drop
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=agtbgpkmh7_A&refer=home

Study Shows Silver Nanoparticles Attach to HIV-1 virus
http://www.physorg.com/news7264.html

ALL THE GOLD IN THE GROUND IS NOT CREATED EQUAL
Part Two - 5 yrs later--Ursel Doran
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/doran101905.html

RICHARD RUSSELL ON GOLD
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/russell101905.html

China Economy Grows 9.4% as Spending, Investment Jump (Update4
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a.MzHyLn5nxk&refer=top_world_news

Figures Lie and Liars Figure
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1129835558.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold Rebounds to End the Week Strong
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1129927276.php

CURRENT: USD 90.18 (+0.42) Gold 466.56 Silver 7.64 Oil 60.63 (+0.61)

Gold ends higher; extra lift from Capitol scare
http://today.reuters.com/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051021:MTFH04 160_2005-10-21_18-48-48_N21524227:1

COR REPORTS:
Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1129923153.php
Silv: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1129923236.php

Excerpts from Global Watch – The Gold Forecaster The Week Ending 21st October 2005
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1129926011.php

Wrong on the China Slowdown--Stephen Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

___________________________________

Van Eeden: Expect more volatility
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=130

Extract:
"I am still confident that the gold price is going much higher. In fact, due to the recent surge of monetary inflation in the US, I have increased my target price for gold to $830 an ounce.

In a previous article:

www.paulvaneeden.com/Library/200304%20Gold.php

I showed that the gold price in US dollars is determined by the relative inflation rate of the dollar versus the inflation rate of gold. This is not only theory, but true in practice as well"

[stolwyk]

97/98: The 1929 depression and gold stocks: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky060698.html

19 Oct: China Silver Conference-Info on Silver supply and Demand: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=245844#760768

Joe Average: The Depression and now: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swagell101305.html

The Financial Sense Newshour
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

_______________________________

Some are blaming the sudden commodities price shocks on the Refco debacle.

REFGO got others into trouble and they in turn had to quickly sell assets to stay liquid. This depressed prices of particularly US energy and other commodity stocks.

I think that Aussie to some extent followed on; there was some recovery on Friday.

Will be buying energy stocks on Monday.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – And the Next Fed Chairman is...
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130186377.php

CURRENT: USD 89.95 Euro 1.197 Gold 464.5 Silver 7.65 Oil 60.29

U.S. stocks rally; Bernanke nominated
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={796C25D6-64BA-4A44-8589-6C0140ECC38B}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

Axel Merk: Bernanke - On the Road to Disaster?
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=336

Roach: Global: Tough Flying Conditions
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

The king of real estate's cashing out
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/21/news/newsmakers/barrack/index.htm?cnn=yes

Treasuries Poised for Worst Year Since 1999 as Fed Raises Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=avu10rBK0Ms4&refer=top_world_news

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Surge Higher
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130272600.php

CURRENT: USD 89.94 (-0.91) Euro 1.211 Gold 472.2 (+ 7.60) Silver 7.78 Oil 62.16

Gold: Sharply Higher On Fund Buying
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4607608376629461056

MERK: The Dollar, Gold and Stagflation.
http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1130248866.php

Data deliver one-two punch for dollar
Greenback dented by Bernanke's inflation assessment
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B790FCAC3%2D88CE%2D4B54%2DB571%2DEDA19E354E B7%7D

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Palladium at New 15 Month Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130359017.php

CURRENT: USD 89.46 EURO: 1.208 GOLD 471.4 SILVER 7.79 OIL 60.60

New Fed chairman Bernanke sees strong non-inflationary US growth - report:
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/10/25/afx2296518.html

The Mogambo Guru: Ben "Bizarro" Bernanke
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1130336460.php

Natural gas demand coming back faster than supply: analysts
http://www.platts.com/Natural%20Gas/News/129242.xml?S=n

Sprott's Peak Oil Watch: http://www.sprott.com/peakoil.php

Bringing Down the Paper Aristocracy
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/01-10-2003.pdf

A LETTER FROM AN OIL EXPLORATION INSIDER
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2005/1022.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Major Indices Lose Over 1%
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130445196.php

CURRENT: USD 88.87 Euro 1.213 Gold 473.9 Silver 7.81 Oil 61.27

Gold futures climb, close above $475
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB6B439C3%2D5578%2D4E17%2D9FFD%2D 1B3D02B17DDA%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

Speculator's Secrets to Profiting in the Gold Bull Market
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=340

Peter Schiff:
"Helicopter Ben” is no Paul Volcker
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1130432400.php

The Refco debacle:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKGJd31_yYQM&refer=news_index

Israel should be ‘wiped off the map’ says Iran
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/14ee1ccc-465b-11da-8880-00000e2511c8.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Dow, Gold, and Silver End the Week Over 1% Higher, Rand Gold Price at Multi-Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130532128.php

CURRENT: USD 89.46 Euro 1.206 Gold 472.9 Silver 7.80 Oil 61.28

COT GOLD REPORT: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1130528050.php
COT SILVER REPORT: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1130528130.php

Global: The Bernanke Challenge-Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Stormwatch: THE TWO BENS by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1028.html

Excerpts from Global Watch – The Gold Forecaster The Week Ending 28th October 2005
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1130529599.php

Gold & Inflation By: Eric Hommelberg
http://news.goldseek.com/EricHommelberg/1130508240.php

[stolwyk]

Financial Sense Newshour
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

STORMWATCH UPDATE: "THE TWO BENS" by Puplava.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1028.html

The Gold Report
Dubai to launch gol/silver exchange-futures
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/oct282005.html

Iran's oi//gas bourse still on course
This exchange to open in the first quarter of 2006.
I understand that payments are in Euros, not $US.
It will expand later. I assume that metals could be added.
I believe that the combination of IRAN and DUBAI will be good for GOLD.

Gold-Mining Profits Healthy?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/wright102805.html

High cost of subsidies
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3418833

Lassonde: Bernanke Appointment Significant for Gold
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/509855.htm

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Barrick Looks to Strike Gold with Placer
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130794655.php

CURRENT: USD 89.83 Euro 1.198 Gold 465.6 (-7.1) Silver 7.55 Oil 59.78

U.S. September Personal Spending Rises 0.5%; Incomes Rise 1.7%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=auGIjSeksUeE&refer=home

Barrick Says It's Bidding $9.2 Bln for Placer Dome
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aBgTiDn1iVBA&refer=top_world_news

Global: Here Comes the Indian Consumer-Stephen Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Mauldin: The Bernanke Era
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin102905.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – “Measured” and “Accommodative” Language Remain
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130883058.php

CURRENT: USD 89.92 Euro 1.201 Gold 459.9 (-6.73) Silver 7.44 Oil 60.00
Note that the Muslems and Indiand have major holidays this week.

Nightmare On Halloween/What’s Behind The Barrick Bid For Placer Doom
http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1130857266.php

General Motors in crisis as its car sales plummet
http://thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?General%20Motors%20in%20crisis%20as%2 0its%20car%20sales%20plummet&StoryID=348B4CED-FEFC-49EA-8686-AB110C1F75F2&SectionID=F3B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D07EB5AA1CEE

Gold: DUBAI enhances its market position.
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/511515.htm

October could be worst for hedge funds since 2000
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051031:MTFH16 060_2005-10-31_15-29-04_L31634454:1

Engdahl: TAMIFLU, LIES AND GMO
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1101_b.html

Bernanke May Be Caught Between Inflation, Slowdown Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afP8XjLwlKP8&refer=us

_______________________________________

10:06am 11/01/05
U.S. Oct. ISM manufacturing index 59.1% vs 59.4% in Sept. By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States slowed a bit in October after a strong increase in the previous month, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index inched lower to 59.1% in October from 59.4% in September. The decline was not as steep as expected.

The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 57.2%. The index had jumped from 53.6 in August. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders fell to 61.7% in October from 63.8% in September. The employment index rose to 55% from 53.1%.

The price index soared to 84% from 78%. This is the highest price level since May 2004.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid={368368B2-191A-4D55-8B9B-9E76639042FB}&dist=bnb

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Rebound
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1130969066.php

CURRENT: USD 89.57 Euro 1.207 Gold 462.8 (+3.39) Silver 7.51 Oil 59.82

The US Dollar Index: The Bear Market Rally should be over!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zihlmann110105.html

Richard Daughty
"The Mogambo Guru": Necessinflation
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/nov022005.html

DIRE STRAIGHTS 1/4 by John Mackenzie
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mackenzie/2005/1102.html

Base metals prices set to largely cool in 2006
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051101/bs_afp/commoditiesmetals_051101175752

Ex-Fed chief Volcker urges US inflation vigilance
http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-01T182302Z_01_N01466087_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-INFLATION-VOLCKER.XML&pageNumber=1

South Africa: First half gold production down by 12.4%
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A107863

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Dollar Rises Back Above 90
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131053883.php

CURRENT: USD 90.32 Euro 1.194 Gold 461.80 Silver 7.56 Oil 61.90

U.S. Third-Qtr Productivity Rises at 4.1% Rate; Costs Fall 0.5%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aAUIZX2L.9r8&refer=home

Bush Faces Rising Anti-U.S. Sentiment at Summit of Americas
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ajoRk4GwjPtA&refer=top_world_news

N.Z.'s Bollard May Raise Rates Until It `Hurts'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=10000081&sid=ajvUxeqYNSCE&refer=australia

Alan Greenspan Warns Congress That Budget Deficits May Cause 'Serious Economic Disruptions'
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051103/greenspan.html?.v=29

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver Lose Over 3% on the Week
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131163260.php

CURRENT: USD 91.16 (+0.82) Gold: 456.4 (-$4; Low 454.9) Silver 7.53 Oil 60.58.

Gold Has Biggest Weekly Loss Since January After Dollar Gains Versus Euro
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

COT Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1131136476.php
Cot Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1131136556.php

SO FAR NOT SO GOOD-by Peter Schiff
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1104.html

Van Eeden: Volatility continues
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=131

Looking Up...Down on the Pampas by Bill Bonner
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/daily/2005/1104.html

THE GOLD FORECASTER
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2005/1104.html

[stolwyk]

FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR (4hrs):
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

S. Roach: China and the Worldview
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Foreign central banks net sellers of U.S. debt-Fed
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051103:MTFH07 201_2005-11-03_21-30-13_NYG000087:1

FSJG Index™ Weekly Review by Frank Barbera
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2005/1104.html

INFLATION DOES NOT SOLVE DEFLATION
by Chris Laird
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1104b.html

Hamilton: Trading the Oil-Stock Bull
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton110605.html

[stolwyk]

Soaring price of gold predicts bout of carnage in bond markets
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 05/11/2005)
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/11/05/cngold05.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2005/11/05/ixcity.html

A Nov 2004 article:
The Biggest (housing) Bubble Ever: http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=1181

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

THE US, EURO AND GOLD.

The US FED Interest rate increased again while the EU and Australia decided to hold theirs. Holding rates meant that the EURO fell while the USD rose. Raising rates generally means that more foreign investment in US Bonds will take place just now.

I think that the EU decided against raising as they want to keep their currency competitive in export. Imports ought to be dearer thereby cutting demand.

It will be interested to see how the US consumption keeps up while interest rates as well as the USD are rising. (Consumption is about 70% of GDP).

The comment was made that the latest FED interest rate is still below REAL Inflation, so they are still behind the curve. Financial Sense mentioned that the Money Supply is currently rising at a 13% annual rate.

In the meantime, both the US Budget deficit and Current Account Deficits will be rising.

Both Trade Deficit and Budget Deficit will be known on Thursday:
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2005/month/11/day/07/daily/index.html

What is there for GOLD?
Most investors know that the FED will continue raising interest rates slowly so as to give the housing bubble time to slow down. Some think the rates may rise until May, but of course, anything can happen.

While the Euro stays low and the USD remains higher than it ought to be, there may not be too many problems with attracting capital to service the US debt.

The Middle East situation is becoming more delicate with time.
The opening of the Dubai Gold Exchange- on Nov 11, I believe- and the Oil and Gas Bourse to start in March in IRAN (Payment in Euros), will be a setback for COMEX and the USD.

It is also possible that the FED is forced to flood any unforeseen problem with money-derivatives levels are sky high - and I can't see oil moving down that fast as the US winter is not that far away.

The demand for Gold remains although a few writers mentioned that Indians and others like lower prices.

The World's Jewellery trade uses 68% of supply and thus can't be ignored.

However, frequent mentioning has been made that Demand exceeds Supply, so I can't see the Gold Price fall that much.

Once the US Interest rate stops rising then the USD could fall and this will be good for Gold.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Rebound
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131399711.php

CURRENT: USD 91.17 Euro 1.179 Gold 459.2 Silver 7.57 Oil 59.41

Gold Rises as Jewelers Stock Up on Cheapest Metal in 7 Weeks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001065&sid=aMQU3LzRQ6SA&refer=movers_by_index

Global: Asian Convergence -Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Dollar surge ignores global imbalances
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-11-04T200613Z_01_ROB472267_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-GLOBAL-DC.XML

Sept. trade gap should shatter records
High energy costs, Boeing strike seen as factors
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid={E0F510FE-207F-4282-96E1-C6E5F97A3FED}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo

To Be Or Not To Be – That Is The Question
http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1131375333.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Dollar Holds Near 2-Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131487573.php

CURRENT: USD 91.24 Euro 1.178 Gold 461.2 Silver 7.61 Oil 59.60.

Consumer confidence keeps recovering Tue Nov 8,10:08 AM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051108/bs_nm/economy_consumers_ibd_dc

Bernanke: Good for Gold?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/nov082005.html

Four questions for big oil
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131487573.php
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/07/news/economy/oil_questions/index.htm?section=money_latest

Energy use heading for calamity
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=404892&in_page_id=2&ct=5

Will Greenspan’s Legacy Be as a Master Banker or Master Bankrupter?
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=1810

Banks order 171 tonnes of gold from producers
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/finances/26.html?id_issue=11417227

[stolwyk]

Gold tallies a three-session win of $10
Broad market uncertainties, rising oil provide support

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=yhoo&dist=yhooquotenews&guid=%7B4272D000-591F-49F9-A8FB-18560646699D%7D

CURRENT: USD 91.5 Euro 1.175 Gold 466.4 Silver: 7.68 Oil 58.51

NB: Trade- and Budget deficits tonight (Oops!):
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2005/month/11/day/10/daily/index.html

Roulston: The dynamics of the gold market are changing, but the main driver remains the same
http://www.kitco.com/ind/resopp/nov092005.html

The Coming Disaster in the Derivatives Market by Michael J. Panzner
Author of Stock Market Jungle: November 9, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2005/1109_b.html

Transcript of: THE BIG PICTURE:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2005/1105.html

FOREX-Dollar stymied near 2-year highs vs euro, yen
Wed Nov 9, 2005 08:13 PM ET
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh4093 8_2005-11-10_01-13-30_t110460_newsml

Gold Breakout Coming-Mike Swanson
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson110905.html

Treasuries Fall as Foreign Demand at $13 Billion Auction Falls
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a6R6AaW2mBmI&refer=home

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – The Twin Deficits
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131658665.php

U.S. trade gap widens to new record
September exports experience sharpest decline since 9/11
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&guid={A6CBDCF4-D8A2-4121-BECD-6F558B9FD256}&dist=bnb

CURRENT: USD91.96 Euro 1.169 (falling) Gold 468.28 Silver 7.67 Oil 57.6 (falling)

Blame Bush, Congress for Busted Federal Budget: John M. Berry
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=adIprYf_RtBk

GM falls on accounting missteps
Banc of America sees rising risk of bankruptcy
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BB4AFAE15%2D89FD%2D423B%2D9D3C%2D3F5E29CB42 DB%7D

B of A, JPMorgan see more bad loans
Wed Nov 9, 2005 3:59 PM ET
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-11-09T205939Z_01_MAR975541_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-BANKS-BANKRUPTCY.xml&archived=False

GLOBALIZATION AND THE DOLLAR
by Axel Merk
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/merk/2005/1110.html

HOW YOU DISCOVER A PIRATE'S COVER-by Rob Kirby
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/1110.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver End the Week on a High-Note
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1131768064.php

Current: USD 91.9 EURO 1.173 Gold 469.0 Silver 7.74 Oil 57.5

Global: Old Europe's Wake-up Call -Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Black Gold and Real Gold
http://www.newerainvestor.com/

World's second largest oil field in decline!
http://www.newerainvestor.com/

Discontinuance of M3
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm
Comment: The FED does'nt like others to be informed.

THE RISE OF THE DOLLAR.COM
by Peter Schiff
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1110.html

SILVER Good As Gold
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gnazzo/2005/1111.html

[stolwyk]

1. Financial Sense
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
Comment: It is feared that Bernanke could increase the money supply in the new year, hence the M3 data won't be published.

However, Financial sense will from now on track M3 and report. Someone else will be reporting on the true US Inflation

2.DUBAI SPECIAL FEATURE:
2A: DGCX and the IBPC hold presentation to discuss the commodities market
http://www.ameinfo.com/71510.html

2B: Dubai gold exchange to cooperate with Chicago Board of Trade
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14219

2C: Dubai goes for gold!
http://www.ameinfo.com/70629.html

2d: Dubai aims for first steel contract and fuel oil
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2005/November/business_November221.xml&section=business&col=

2E: Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange announces launch date of 22 November
http://www.ameinfo.com/70621.html

2F: Dubai's gold imports boosted by strong demand
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14080

2G: Dubai logs in to gold futures
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1277833.cms

2H: UAE refiner to lift gold production
Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates - 19 Oct 2005
... making commemorative coins and gifts, the refiner also aims to produce 500kg a day of silver for delivery on the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) once ...

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2005/October/business_October405.xml&section=business&col=


THE GOLD FORECASTER:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2005/1111.html

[stolwyk]

DUBAI SPECIAL FEATURE (Cont)

DUBAI: IS IT POSITIVE FOR GOLD?

One would think that any additional Institution will be Gold positive.

And Dubai is a special case as it is the centre of the Opec Oil hub nations.

These countries have large surpluses and need gold to balance their reserves. Also, many don't like buying from the US NYMEX as there is a suspicion that at some stage the US may intervene in a difficult financial situation.
Some nations don't like bank accounts in the US either for that reason.

Buying/selling at Dubai means that the metal as well as the currency remain outside the US in many cases.

Europeans would also like Dubai, I think. They do a huge trade with the Middle East and transactions may occur in Gold, if so desired.

There is little doubt that the total World Demand for Gold will rise, I believe as there is a better opportunity to transact Gold: People may buy gold in small lots as well so it can be used as gifts or payment.

Many don't like the US NYMEX because they think there are some unsavoury practices going on.

So, I think the DGCX will be a success story. There are some capable Board members with Dr David Rutledge as Chairman.

An important time slot will be filled also: at present it is 12.32 pm (noon) in Sydney, 5.32 am in Dubai and 8.32 pm in New York.

So, Dubai trading will start late afternoon, Sydney time.

Dubai trading will start at 10 am and finish at 11.30pm, 5 days per week.

At the moment, trading is minor after NY closes and there often is an opportunity to drag down the gold price at little cost.

That opportunity will be less once Dubai has been operating for a while, I believe.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

SPECIAL FEATURE:

DOES THE USA OWN THE FED? IF NOT, WHO DOES?

The Illuminati and the House of Rothschild
Johnny Silver Bear
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rothschild.html

The Federal Reserve Is A PRIVATELY OWNED Corporation
By Thomas D. Schauf © 1992
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/fed_reserve.htm
__________________________________________

"There has been much speculation about who owns the Federal
Reserve Corporation. It has been one of the best kept
secrets of the century, because the Federal Reserve Act of
1913 provided that the names of the owner banks be kept
secret. However, R. E. McMaster publisher of the newsletter
The Reaper, asked his Swiss banking contacts which banks
hold the controlling stock in the Federal Reserve
Corporation. The answer:

1. Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin

2. Lazard Brothers Bank of Paris

3. Israel Moses Sieff Banks of Italy

4. Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam

5. Lehman Brothers Bank of New York

6. Kuhn Loeb Bank of New York

7. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York

8. Goldman Sachs Bank of New York

In The Secrets Of The Federal Reserve, Eustace Mullins
indicates that, because the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
sets interest rates and controls the daily supply and price
of currency throughout the U.S., the owners of that bank are
the real directors of the entire system. Mullins states:

"The shareholders of these banks which own the stock of
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are the people who
have controlled our political and economic destinies
since 1914. They are the Rothschilds, Lazard Freres
(Eugene Mayer), Israel Sieff, Kuhn Loeb Company,
Warburg Company, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs. the
Rockefeller family, and the J.P. Morgan interests."
_________________________

SECRETS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
The London Connection by Eustace Mullins
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm


HOW YOU DISCOVER A PIRATE'S COVER-by Rob Kirby
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/1110.html


Current price of Gold: 468.7

[tricha]

Food for thought!

http://www.howestreet.com/story.php?ArticleId=1700

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Jay Taylor: J. Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks


November 12 2005

Ian Gordon Reviews His Deflationary K-Winter Thesis

Between January 1, 2000 and September 30, 2005, our Model Portfolio gained 122% while the S&P 500 actually lost 16.4%. An investment of $1,000 in J Taylor’s Model Portfolio during that time would have grown to $2,220 while that same investment placed in the S&P 500 would have shrunk to $836. Being human, your editor would like to take credit for this performance but such boastfulness would be misplaced because whatever correct market calls I have made have resulted from the collective wisdom of many different independent thinkers. Of all those who have helped me in constructing our investment philosophy, none have been more influential than my good friend, Ian Gordon. From the first time that Ian sent me his newsletter back in 1998, I have found his well-reasoned fundamental and historical approach to investing to be most compelling. Since then I think it is fair to say I have become one of Ian’s leading supporters, especially with respect to his Kondratieff-cycle theory.

Ian has believed we are poised for a devastating deflationary collapse of our monetary system and a major depression akin to or worse than that of the 1930s. As a good, compassionate human being, Ian certainly isn’t wishing for that to happen. But his study of history tells him a major credit contraction is all but inevitable and that when the most devastating portion of the Kondratieff cycle, (which he has labeled the Kondratieff Winter) pays us a visit, it will drastically reduce the standard of living we in the west have become accustomed to over the past several generations. Helping us prepare for a world of high unemployment, massive debt defaults and plummeting incomes is what Ian’s work is all about. Unfortunately, I’m afraid he is right —that we are nearing a deflationary collapse. That is why Ian’s views are published more often than most others in our weekly messages.

It has been more than six years since our first interview with Ian and more than five years since the stock markets peaked. Yet, on the surface, signs of inflation more than deflation still abound. So we thought it would be a good idea to interview Ian once again to see if his views have changed. Thankfully he agreed to allocate his valuable time to talk to us again. Because many of our subscribers are very interested in Ian’s theories I sent out an email invitation to you to question him directly. Many of you did send in your questions, many of which Ian has answered in the following dialog. Does Ian hold fast to the Kondratieff deflation ideas he first talked about in 1999? If so, just where does he think we are now in terms of the impending deflationary collapse. I trust you will benefit if not enjoy Ian’s “doomsday” answers that follow.

TAYLOR: Ian, we first interviewed you back on June 11, 1999. At that time you talked of the imminent demise of the equity markets. That turned out to be an excellent call. The decline in the equity market was to have been the start of the contraction phase of the Kondratieff Winter. Although stocks have declined, we have not seen anything like the kind of cataclysmic decline in stocks and the economy that was supposed to follow, according to your dire warnings. As I recall, you were talking about a 2000 Dow and a $2,000 gold price and major unemployment akin to or worse than we experienced in the 1930s. To be sure, gold has had a fair rise from a very undervalued $259.70 when we first talked to you. And stocks, as measured by the Dow, have come down from their all-time high, but not really by a whole lot. In fact, the Dow is still above 10000. So five years later, gold and the Dow are a long way from $2,000 and 2000, respectively. Do you still hold t

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Busy Economic Week Ahead
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132004246.php

Current: USD 92.0 Euro 1.169 Gold 466.5 Silver 7.71 Oil 57.74

Greenspan Issues Trade Deficits Warning
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2005/11/14/financial/f114725S67.DTL&type=business

Axel Merk:
Globalization and the Dollar 11/14/05
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=374

S. Africa's gold output may drop to 80-year low: report
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/15/content_3780987.htm

THE GREAT DEBATE!
What Will Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke Do? by Puru Saxena
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/1114.html

by Jim Willie CB
THE GREEN BEN BERNANKE
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1114.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – "Benspeak"
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132090832.php

CURRENT: USD 92.0 Euro 1.171 Gold 468.3 Silver 7.75 Oil 57.0

Inflation: What, Why and How
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville111505.html

North Sea oil output fall hits non-Opec growth
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=106222

'Global scramble for gold'
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=econ&ArticleID=1518-25_1834813

The Origin of ‘Bulls’ and ‘Bears’
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1132066800.php

THE BIG PICTURE-Transcript:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2005/1112.html

When Profits Go Poof! by Richard Benson
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2005/1114.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – New Highs For Everything Precious
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132177139.php

CURRENT: USD 92.26(+) Euro 1.166 Gold 478.7(+) Silver 8.02 Oil 57.86

'Global scramble for gold'
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=econ&ArticleID=1518-25_1834813

Inflation is Brewing & Gold is Shining
http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1132175230.php

The New Stupidest Mogambo Timing System
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1132153266.php

International Forecaster November
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1132157553.php

North Sea oil output fall hits non-Opec growth
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=106222

The Origin of ‘Bulls’ and ‘Bears’
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1132066800.php

Outlook sours for US real estate
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/14/real_estate/buying_selling/prices_going_south/index.htm

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Ends at 18 Year Record
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132263421.php

CURRENT: USD 91.9 Euro 1.175 Gold 485.9 Silver: 8.08 Oil 57.1

Captainhook: A Few Thoughts On Recently Announced Reporting Changes At The Fed
http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1132261200.php

Barrick, Glamis Lead Acquisition Search as Gold Output Falls
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aIvnVJdvmsqk&refer=canada

Peter Schiff: Which do you Believe, Gold or the Government?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff111605.html

Homebuilder index hits a 30-month low
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B369AB1A4%2D96FB%2D49CB%2D8CCB%2D04D476BDC8 3A%7D

U.S. Housing Starts Fell 5.6% in October to 2.014 Million Rate
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aA56iujBNDmE&refer=home

Confidence on the wane
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13464125,00.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up -Gold & Silver Hold Onto Weekly Gains
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132372860.php

CURRENT: USD 91.87 Euro 1.177 Gold 485.3 Silver 8.03 Oil 57.21

COT,Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1132346051.php
COT, Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1132346107.php

Global: Asian Complacency-Stephen Roach (in Beijing)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Derivatives dealing hits record levels
By Jennifer Hughes in New York
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f974790e-57...00e25118c.html

Trichet Says ECB Ready to Raise Rates to Curb Prices
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=apERfy3U3Fuw&refer=home

Paul van Eeden: The History of Money
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=133

Barrick, Glamis Lead Acquisition Search as Gold Output Falls
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aIvnVJdvmsqk&refer=canada

[stolwyk]

18 Nov: GOLD TALK (1)

A POWERFULL GOLD UPTREND.

People may marvel at the sharp rise, however, gold has a lot of ground to make up considering that it was held down over so many years while inflation carried on.

Hence, I won't be too excited if it reaches $500 although there will be a battle royale around that mark.

So, I would be more interested at $650.

One advantage of past low prices is that exploration has run behind so gold production is running down.

At the same time expenses have greatly increased and this has made some mines sub-economic. Generally spoken, one would prefer an open mine with at least 2.5 grams/tonne gold. Skilled personnel and equipment, eg drilling machines can be at a premium.

Apart from the usual reasons why gold should rise (Increasing money supply and inflation, the massive increasing debts and deficits,less production of gold and increasing demand, world insecurity, higher oil prices; the intense competition for resources, the coming dislocation of world trade and increasing protection, the battle of currencies, the rise of the Chinese military capability, Iraq-Israel-Iran, the German and European situation), there are 3 potent ones to add:

1. Hedge funds used to make a lot of money from the carry-trade. Increasing interest rates have forced them to look for other avenues and gold is in a firm uptrend. Hedge funds have grown quite a lot and their influence is considerable.

2. The openining of the Dubai Exchange and the establishment of an oil exchange in IRAN in March. Both serve to decrease the power of the US exchanges and its manipulation.

3. Companies are forced to take over others so as to safeguard their Gold reserves. This increases prices overall and these takeovers will be speeding up.

Large companies are now looking at projects with say 2 mill ounces, while in the past, 3 mill ounces was bypassed unless the grade was a high one. And still smaller projects will be accepted later on.

One does notice how fast good gold stocks rise vs the metal Gold. The Canadian gold stocks put on 4-5% while the gold price rose 1%. Imagine, if the Gold price rose 25% and these Gold stocks could then double.

In a powerful uptrend, this can be expected. Of course, once the Gold price reaches the very apex and then falls, the rate of fall will be faster than that of the metal.

Holders of the metal Gold will have less risk in the final stages of this powerful cycle.

As mentioned, the gold price has been held down and for this reason, the uptrend can last for a long time IMHO.

This is an extraordinary situation which caused some older existing ratios to go haywire. That is not to say, these will be fully restored although the current sum of world negative parameters will assist.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

GOLD TALK (2)

THE FED WITHOLDING M3 DATA.

MONEY SUPPLY. M1, M2 and M3 are discussed here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply


"As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, in contrast to the other three reports of the United States money supply, provided in detail" .

"According to the most recent data from October 24, 2005, M3 has been growing at an annual rate of 7.5%"

"One of the principal jobs of central banks (such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank) is to keep money supply growth in line with real GDP growth".

"real GDP = nominal Gross Domestic Product / GDP deflator"

GDP deflator = measure of inflation. Money supply may be less than or greater than the demand of money in the economy

COMMENT: At the moment, the GDP is running at 3.8% but Inflation is about 5% or higher.

Financial Sense mentioned that M3 is growing at a much faster rate than M2 and that is why the FED does'nt want to disclose the M3 data after March 23.

Financial Sense thinks that at that time, the FED could liquify the economy once again (Create a large amount of money) to assist a then possible stalling economy.

I checked and found that M2 from 1Jan to 1 Oct rose by 3.2% while M3 rose a much higher 5.7%! Yes, that could be one reason why the FED doesn't want to disclose the M3 data.

In addition, we get fabricated numbers for CPI, GDP and other essential data, so it seems that the researcher has little access to real data. Neither can he directly compare real numbers with manipulated ones or data from the US with that of say Europe.

However, the use of hedonics seems to be spreading, so one would expect results achieved by the use of smoke and mirrors, "the Alice in wonderland" approach.

Europe and others keep an eye on the M3 from the US, so their reaction is awaited.

GOLD
Monetary inflation is caused by increase in the money supply.

GOLD investors watch inflation all the time and like to be informed about M3. The Central Banks don't want to see gold as a currency and have done everything to keep the POG (Price of Gold) down and hence drawing the conclusion there was little or no no price inflation.

So, although there was inflation, the POG did'nt indicate this till in the last few years. It was when deficits under Bush started to strongly rise that the gold price rose as well.

This policy became unstuck lately when it could be shown that price inflation and the Current Account deficit was rapidly increasing: Gold took off, assisted by a number of other positives.

By not disclosing M3 and by further manipulating the prime economic results, the FED makes the job of the Gold researcher more difficult. The FED does'nt want Gold to rise or to be adopted as a currency, so the coming omission of M3 means that there is fear at the FED.
_______________________________

INTERESTING DATA.
Go to:
http://money.howstuffworks.com/framed.htm?parent=question237.htm&url=http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/hist/h6hist1.txt

By 1 Jan 2006, the M3 would be about 10.199 trillions. In Jan 1959, it was only $292 Bill, so from Jan 1959 to Dec 2005(46 years), the compound annual growth of the M3 money supply would be approx. 8% while the real GDP may have been a compound 2%.

The "dream years" 1959 and 1960 show little increase in money supply but the policy of avoiding recessions means that M3 can rise considerably at times: 2001: 11.65%.

What is clear is that the M3 money supply has been growing at a too fast rate. However, the US and some other nations' Government debt, deficits and all other debt are so staggering that only *meaningful* Monetary Inflation can reduce these numbers in real terms.

It is likely that the price of oil or whatever will be blamed, but never the increase in money supply!

Watch Bernanke increasing the M3 money supply in 2006! Can you hear the Helicopters starting up?

GOLD has already sensed that and hence the Gold price is ri

[stolwyk]

GOLD TALK - #3 of 3 posts.

BERNANKE'S HELICOPTER MONEY.

Bernanke said that he is interested in combatting price inflation. Of course the FED is already doing that by reducing the *REAL* CPI and presenting a bogus one.

And if anything does'nt suit, then they simply drop that subject from the CPI.

Price inflation can be reduced by upping the FED's interest rate in a meaningful manner, say to 6%; the FED refuses to do that because of well expected repercussions eg a deep recession or depression. It has to keep consumption going because that is 75% of GDP. (That over-consumption increases the Current Account Deficit).

So, the FED's rate is wel below the inflation rate and this tends to keep up demand.

Now with this high consumption rate and massive debts, there is no room to move unless the debt is inflated away.

But because this debt/obligations and its heavy servicing grow at such an alarming rate, it will be necessary to speed up monetary inflation, I believe. The alternative would be alike to Chinese water torture with no end in sight.

The current interest rates rises were also meant to assist the $USD and to attract foreign capital (Investment in Bonds and other instruments).

Should Bernanke flood the economic system with more created money, he may need to lower the interest rate at the same time and this will lower the dollar.

GOLD is waiting for that day also. Although it would operate separate from the dollar, this and the ensuing loss of confidence will assist.

Gerry

Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 91.95 Euro 1.172 Gold 493.0 (has been 495.5) Silver 8.14 Oil 57.85

A Sneak Preview - Part 4: Helicopter Commander-by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/preview4.html

THE BIG PICTURE-Transcript
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/preview4.html

Gold Rises in Asia as Investors Bet on Gains, Jeweler Demand
http://www.gold-eagle.com/dmr2.php

Clive Maund: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund112105.html

Real-Estate Speculators, Pulling Back, Help Fed Remove `Froth'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aykpkUeKxDO4&refer=us

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Surge Yet Again
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132695743.php

USD 91.4 (-0.54) Euro 1.182 Gold 493.2 Silver 8.16 Oil 59.0

Fed Says Rate Outlook May Change `Before Long'
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=agotyWTOgaiw&refer=home

Chapman: What's Happened to M3?
http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1132695545.php

Puplava: A Sneak Preview - Part 4: Helicopter Commander
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/preview4.html

Hommel: Gold, Copper, Silver News
http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1132681997.php

BLEEDING GM FIRES 30,000, SHUTS 12 PLANTS
http://www.nypost.com/business/58028.htm

Economy goes forward but leaves many behind
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2005-11-22-wages-1a-cover-usat_x.htm

Gold futures near $500 an ounce-Retracement possible before technical hurdle breached
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=yhoo&dist=yhooquotenews&guid=%7B3074AF32-3A22-42ED-9BE5-44F594033D57%7D

CB should increase gold weighting in reserves - Putin
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?menu=1&id_issue=11424471

[stolwyk]

US: No trading in Gold till Monday.

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Consolidate
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132783033.php

Current: USD 91.43 Euro 1.18 Gold 494.1 Silver 8.2 Oil 58.7

Hardly a Flat World-Stephen Roach (from Abu Dhabi)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051121-mon.html

Gold Rush 21, Putin, de Gaulle, Bridgewater Associates, China, And
http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1132758123.php

The Chinese Yuan Revaluation – The Real, Long-Term Consequences
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1132769386.php

Willie: A Bundle of Gold Factors
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1132758068.php

THe Mogambo Guru: "The Madness of Bankers"
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1132758067.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Rises in London as Jewelers in India, Europe Stock Up
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aUqupx9aT_fE

Current: USD 91.44 Euro 1.178 Gold 493.2 Silver 8.14 Oil 58.71

US Comptroller Auditor General Warns of 'Fiscal Hurricane' on Horizon
http://www.gold.ie/gold_investments_weekly_news.htm#Commentary

THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW-what was, what is and what will be
Part 4: Helicopter Commander by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1123.html

Fed Printing Press Fueling Gold $500
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/nov222005.html

Sellers' slump is a harsh realty in tri-state
http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/57980.htm

[stolwyk]

US PLAYING CHESS WITH FATE-CHECKMATE!

The US has no room to move; it can extend the present way of living somewhat by increasing the money supply despite protests from other nations but sooner than later, the vast imbalances need to be corrected.

No matter, what numbers are falsified or witheld or what newsorgans are controlled, the truth will come out regardless.

There are so many negatives that it is impossible to attend to all of them; in any case within the very restricted economic environment, the FED and the US are working, any adjustment causes new problems.

Take Consumption which is about 75% of the GDP. That is bad enough. Then, about 18% of GDP is devoted to Construction-much of it housing.

With it comes the massive employment of workers and every one concerned with it, including realtors.

Even levelling off house sales will mean increased unemployment, in a more dire situation, unemployment will be high.

Where to find work? The US exports goods to the tune of only 8% of GDP (Germany some 30-35%) and it will get less as more outsourcing takes place.

What about manufacturing of textiles and some other goods? Factories are closing down and are shifting overseas. Nowhere to go, really.

Obviously, Consumption will be affected, less tax to the Govt coffers and more labour being laid off. And so the US starts a slump.

Can it be avoided? Fate says "NO". Consumption needs to be changed into production but capital formation to do that, is not there. Those who could contribute will be shifting their capital abroad or invest in gold/silver to be on the safe side.

In any case, many are connected with house speculation or increased payments on mortgages and savings are below zero.

Bernanke will be ready to prevent the unthinkable (depression) and flood the scene with paper currency.

That could help to some extinct but its effect would be less than on previous occasions when at least the workers were building houses.

And if more cash can be lent out but not many want to borrow against higher real interest rates, then Bernanke will be forced to lower interest rates, the dollar will fall and a new set of problems present itself, more so as the US is beset with a mountain of debt.

The US has the biggest structural problems ever being witnessed. It is ridiculous to have such a high consumption rate and few other alternatives.

FATE WILL WIN AND THE US WIL BE PUT INTO CHECKMATE.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver End the Week at New Records
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1132945042.php

CURRENT: USD 91.98 (+ 0.53) Euro 1.172 Gold 495.8 Silver 8.17 Oil 58.71

$500 Gold and Interest Rates-Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1132940558.php

MURPHY ON GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/murphy112305.html

Waiting for the Sky to Fall?:
Asia and Implications of $500 Gold and $8+ Silver
Keith W. Rabin and Scott B. MacDonald
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rabin112205.html

Winter, High Oil Costs Cause Global Chills
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051125/world_heating_woes.html?.v=6

Van Eeden: A gold bull market
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=134

[stolwyk]

Sir Alan Ponzi
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/stott112305.html

GOLDMONEY:
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2005-10-30.html

Four-Digit Gold?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hathaway112305.html

China's Copper Crisis Tells a Bigger Story: William Pesek Jr.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=adqgEzZvJxYg

Toyota Quickens Quest to Unseat GM:
http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2005/11/23/ap2351134.html

European Central Bank President Defends Possible Rise in Interest Rates
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051124/europe_trichet.html?.v=1

[stolwyk]

COMMENT:
The more Gold consolidates, the greater the chance it will cut through the $500 barrier. It is consolidating every $5 instead of every $10 now: There is a big battle going on.

At the moment, the troops with the golden Shields are fighting the FED and some Central Banks in front of the Gate.
I have little doubt that some clandestine Gold is being thrown from the ramparts by the Opposition.

The $500 mark is one of the most important psychological marks in the history of Gold and the FED knows that.

Once the Gate has been smashed, 4 things will occur:

1. Gold will be pushed into the limelight by the Media. It can't be ignored any longer.
2. People will be asking questions about gold and many will invest.
3. The economic smaller gold companies will start to move.
4. The big Hedge Funds' investments will dramatically increase (There is'nt much else going) and Gold at some time will have its own momentum because of heavy Demand.

Once through the Gate, the pressure is on, there wil be battles but it ought to be easier to get to $550.

Bernanke will take over in Jan and that ought to assist Gold, given time.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bernankeism: Another Good Reason To Buy Gold
Jay Taylor
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor112605.html

Robert Blumen: Bernankeism: Fraud or Menace
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumen/blumen10.html

Comment: We should all know by now why Bernanke does'nt want M3 published.

21st Century Gold Rush UP DATE
(How High Can Gold And Silver Stocks Go?)by Aubie Baltin CFP. CTA, CFA, Phd. (retired)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin112605.html

Newmont Forecasts Gold to Rise Above $1,000 on Asian Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aotpaNV5Qtpw&refer=top_world_news

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Silver Joins Gold at New 18 Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133214080.php

CURRENT: USD 90.9 (-1.08) Euro 1.184 Gold 498.6 Silver 8.34 Oil 57.28

Comment: Gold did hit 502.5

COT Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1133210010.php
Cot Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1133210051.php

The Case of the Missing Petro-Dollars-Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

China is not a currency manipulator, U.S. says
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&guid={3BA937A0-7787-4248-94D2-00C54A9EEB98}&dist=bnb

M3 Measure of Money Discontinued by Fed 11/21/05-By Bud Conrad
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=392

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – On the Cusp of $500
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133300050.php

CURRENT: USD 91.6 Euro 1.176 Gold 495.0 Silver 8.24 Oil 56.15

How High Can Gold And Silver Stocks Go?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin112605.html

BEST OF GARY NORTH
http://www.investmentrarities.com/

The Federal Reserve-Fractional Reserve Lending
Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/gnazzo112805.html

Willie: The dollar repatriation conjob:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie112905.html

''Venezuela's Hugo Chavez Makes His Bid for a Bolivarian Revolution''
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=285

MIDDLE CLASS EMBRACES GOLD by David N. Vaughn
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vaughn/2005/1129.html
Note: M3 is discussed

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Markets Correct
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133387957.php

CURRENT: USD 91.51 Euro 1.179 Gold 492.3 Silver 8.22 Oil 57.49

Why Gold went down:
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

The Dollar and the Current Account
http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1133363100.php

John Mackenzie: A Picture's Worth
http://news.goldseek.com/JohnMackenzie/1133363050.php

More of the Same at the Federal Reserve By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman
http://news.goldseek.com/RonPaul/1133363041.php

The Greenspan Warnings. Author: Nick Barisheff, Bullion Marketing Services Inc.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1133363220.php

We are Freaking Doomed--The Mogambo Guru
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1133363160.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Jumps to Near 23 Year Highs, Silver at New 18 Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133473190.php

CURRENT: USD 91.87 Euro 1.173 Gold 503.3 Silver 8.51 oil 58.6

THE DOLLAR REPATRIATION CONJOB by Jim Willie CB
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1201.html

Gold, President Putin, the Russian Central Bank & the Geopolitical 'Great Game'
http://www.gold.ie/gold_investments_weekly_news.htm#Commentary

U.S. October Personal Spending Rises 0.2%; Core Prices Up 0.1%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aMb7vkgE.ivc&refer=home

European Manufacturing Grows Fastest in 14 Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aj.rExrHsjd8&refer=top_world_news

[cragga]

Hello,

Can anyone share with me some or all of the criteria they use to make decisions/comparisons of the various mining (mainly silver and gold) companies discussed on this forum. I'm looking to start evaluting these with others in US and Canada. What I'm aiming to achieve is maybe a spreadsheet with key criteria and maybe weightings to help highlight lower risk higher potential companies. Initially I'm looking for longer term opps. Any help/advice would be most welcome. Also any advice on broker for trading on US/Canadian markets, given I'm in NZ.

Cheers,

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver End the Week at New Records
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133582460.php

CURRENT: USD 91.87 Euro 1.17 Gold 502.7 Silver 8.54 Oil 58.6 (creeping up).

COT Gold
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1133555649.php

COT Silver
http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1133555701.php

China Slowdown -- Early Not Wrong by Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Greenspan: U.S. Deficit May Hurt Economy
Friday December 2, 4:24 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Alan Greenspan Warns U.S. Budget Deficit, Backlash Against Trade Deficits May Disrupt Economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051202/greenspan.html?.v=13

P Schiff: The Fallacy of Consumption
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1133535850.php

by Paul van Eeden- Which phase are we in?
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=135

Tonight: Financial Sense Newshour
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 91.88 Euro 1.171 Oil 59.32 Gold 506.5 Silver 8.55

Dollar’s rise aided by Opec holdings
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9c6d7db6-64fe-11da-8cff-0000779e2340.html

Comment: The Euro was getting a thrashing during that time.

Opec set to lift secrecy about oil production
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/feac6b20-5862-11da-90dd-0000779e2340.html

Oil companies defend themselves against attack on earnings
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/339d4968-588a-11da-90dd-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=bf499000-f5eb-11d8-b814-00000e2511c8.html

November 19, 2005 International Precious Metals & Commodities Fair -
Munich, Germany. Transcript of Dr. Kurt Richebächer's Lecture
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/richebacher120405.html

Excerpts From – “Global Watch – The Gold Forecaster“ w-e 2nd December 2005
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1133755200.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Continue to Make New Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133818651.php

CURRENT: USD 91.45 (-) Euro 1.179 Gold 510.1 Silver 8.68 Oil 59.77

Why Gold Can Go Higher And Higher
Paul Tustain explains the current attraction of gold.
http://news.goldseek.com/GalMarley/1133797992.php

Gold and Silver Market Update By Clive Maund
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/dec052005.html

Opinion - William Rees-Mogg
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1052-1904459,00.html

12/5/05: Big Al Gives The Markets A Mess
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=418The Daily Pfennig

Treasurys fall for fourth day in five
Bond market defensive after service data, awaits auctions
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B230C57AA%2DB9C9%2D4DB0%2D974D%2DA2F3D5D078 0A%7D

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Closes In On 25 Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1133906924.php

CURRENT: USD 91.45 Euro 1.179 Gold 510.8 Silver 8.68 Oil 60.03


Global: Five Risks-Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051205-mon.html


Grandich Letter Special Alert: Quick Metals Commentary
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/dec062005.html

What do Rising Gold Prices Mean? By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman
http://news.goldseek.com/RonPaul/1133882246.php

The Word’s Getting Out: Gold is Good
http://news.goldseek.com/EmergingGrowthStocks/1133904577.php

RED ALERT - MONETARY FLOOD! by Puru Saxena
December 6, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/1206.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Introducing “My Two Ounces
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134014460.php

CURRENT: USD 91.86 Euro 1.172 Gold 514.6 (High: 516.3) Silver 8.80 Oil 59.17

Marc Faber: good luck mr. Bernanke!
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/mcdownloads/051108.pdf

Special Alert: Gold at 24-1/2 Year Highs; Silver at 18-Year Highs; HUI Breakout!
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1134014400.php

More and More Scary Every Day by: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning: http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1133967960.php

Housing Slowdown May Claim 800,000 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051207/economic_forecast.html?.v=5

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

OPINION: I believe that Gold is getting a dream run by averaging some 2-3 dollars a day.

There is no real spike and any Funds leaving are rapidly replaced by new entrants, thereby keeping up the pressure.

There is of course no obvious reason to leave as this is slowly becoming the most important profitable game in town.

Summary: I think that current progress will continue. Any correction at this stage can only be minor. The coming Current Account and the intended Non-disclosure of M3 as well as the official start of Bernanke ought to keep the fires burning.

Expect more money to join the fun!

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 91.22 Gold 522.0 Silver 8.83 Oil 61.11(+)


WHAT MAKES GOLD REALLY MOVE?
Opinion.

There are of course a number of reasons, some well understood, others less so.
When a war breaks out, Gold is set to rise. So can large scale terrorist ventures as well.

Competitive devaluation of currencies designed to increase exports while holding imports back by protection measures is another one leading ultimately to trade friction and can be good for Gold, particularly if done large scale. So can increasing friction about resources.

And the important ones, budget/ trade/ current account deficits.

However what will make gold really move is increasing the money supply (M3) too fast as is happening now (Monetary inflation). This of course leads to greater price inflation as well as is happening in quite a few countries.

Price inflation can be due to other factors as well eg. Supply /Demand. Part of the current Gold price rise is due to that.

The massive increase in monetary inflation and Debt overloads are the major contributors to the Gold price moving up.

Monetary inflation has been running at a staggering 10% in the last 3 months (Financial Sense) and if this keeps going then on a yearly basis, money would have lost 10% of its value.

And to make the astronomical Govt- and other debts less real, a number of years with high monetary inflation will help, assuming the Govt can get away with it.

The FED does'nt want recessions or depressions as these are less desirable than trying to reduce real debt by a big bout of monetary inflation.

The US and other countries won't increase taxes instead or use other methods as the Debt Cycle is out of control. A few countries are trying to beat price inflation by raising interest realistically, but if the US did that, a deep depression could be the result.

So, it is slowly increasing the pressure by increasing interest rates by 1/4% at a time, however, as mentioned it is at the same time increasing monetary inflation by 10%, the latter designed to lighten debt loads from the Govt and private citizens (mortgages), the latter if they can get some compensation by increased incomes because of increases in the CPI.

Sofar, the US and other countries have falsified the real CPI and GDP data. The CPI is understated while the GDP has been inflated.

The Fed wants to do the same with any increase of monetary inflation or M3, by not disclosing it after March. Europe and other countries feel that publication of M3 is important, so people know what is happening to the economy.

Obviously, this news immediately feeds into the Gold price.

Gold thinks that the new Bernanke experiment will be to maintain a high level of M3, together with continued falsification of other economic data. Obviously, this is enough to set Gold on a rising trend for many years. It stil remembers the monetary inflation foregone before 2000 as well.

So, it is not a flash in the pan. Bernanke needs to increase M3 so as to deflate debt. A dangerous experiment because the US economy needs restructuring: 75% of GDP is devoted to consumption.

So, I am not surprised if Gold would move to $800 and beyond: there are bound to be some surprises down the road, no doubt.

Gerry
Holds Gold and Silver stocks.
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[tricha]

Well Gerry - you are right on the money :)

What you just summed up is 100%, I knocked gold for a few years, people would rant about gold going up, but the US $ would go down, no gain in OZ $ terms for a few years.

I am so glad I followed your reports, as soon as the decoupling took place proper, I bought gold stocks.

If I had not have, read heaps of these reports, I would not have understood what decoupling means.

So I owe you a beer or three, too have a 40% gain on a gold stock in a month is awesome.

Keep up the good work.

Cheersd TR

P.S You are so right, the once mighty $US might not be worth the paper it is written on.[xx(]

[tricha]

That magic word -Decoupling Gold renews rally, nears $530 an ounce

By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:47 AM ET Dec. 9, 2005
Disable MW live quotes | E-mail it | Print | Discuss | Alert | Reprint |

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures continued to rally early Friday as the front-month contract neared $530 an ounce - it's highest in almost 25 years - buoyed by continued strong physical demand, inflation concerns and central-bank buying.



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Gold for February delivery rose to as high as $529 an ounce overnight and was last trading at $527.80, up $5.10 from Thursday's close.

Gold has rallied sharply in recent months, adding about $30 since the end of November, amid robust demand for jewellery in China and India, buying by central banks, notably Russia, and inflation concerns that have been fueled by a surge in energy prices.

Crude-oil futures were also higher early Friday, climbing back over $61 a barrel, even after data showed bigger-than-expected builds in inventories in the latest week.

Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, a newsletter on the gold sector, said there are other factors at play.

"While strong physical and investment demand have been worthy reasons to explain the explosion in gold prices, heavy short positions by group(s) who have tried capping the gold price is what has led to a near parabolic rise of late," he said.

"I do think today could mark a very short term high but a run to $550 before year-end is still quite possible," Grandich said.

Merrill Lynch upgraded its gold price target for 2006 by 19% to $525 an ounce and lifted its 2007 target by 18% to $500 an ounce.

South Africa-based analyst David Hall said gold is effectively trading as a currency, but one that has decoupled from the dollar, allowing it to move on its own course.

At the same time, demand is being buoyed by strong jewellery growth and ETF sales, while supply remains muted, he said.

Other metals joined in the rally. Palladium was last up $11.85 at $300 an ounce. Silver rose 5 cents to $9.04 an ounce and copper added 0.5 cent to $2.035 a pound.

Only platinum was left out, trading last down 10 cents at $1,007 an ounce

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver Gain 5% on the Week
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134187260.php

CURRENT: USD 91.21 Euro 1.18 GOLD 525.6 (Was 530.5) Silver 8.98 Oil 59.39 (-1.27)

COT Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1134160459.php
COT Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1134160516.php

The Testing of Japan--Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Gold ends over $530, up 5% for the week
Silver above $9 an ounce; platinum at highest since 1980
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9DFB6516-C9B0-424F-AE01-2249FE3D67DD%7D&siteid=google

Why You Should Be Buying Gold-The Mogambo Guru
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/dec072005.html

Central Banks Now Buying Gold-By: Jason Hommel, GoldIsMoney.com
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1134140820.php

Silver Update #17
http://news.silverseek.com/ZihlmannInvest/1134138707.php

Gold shines as alternative to leading currencies
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4f3850ee-6818-11da-bfce-0000779e2340.html

U.S. debt expands at fastest clip in 18 years
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1134079259-f05e0f08-45206

[stolwyk]

Thanks Tricha.


IMPORTANT: BANKING ON GOLD by Paul Tustain
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tustain/2005/1209.html

SAN FRANCISCO GOLD 2005: Transcriptions of Interviews:
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/sfgold2005.html

THE GOLD FORECASTER by Julian D.W. Phillips
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2005/1210.html

Willie: Hat Trick Letter
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1209.html

Federal Government Spending Report ~ A Summary ~ by Michael W. Hodges, Author
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hodges/2005/1209.html

MONEYIZATION, PART 18 Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2005/1209.html

[stolwyk]

Last night "Financial Sense" suggested that a pull back (Sharp correction) would occur soon:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Reference: 1st hour, Frank Barbera.

It is worth listening to.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Economic Australian Gold stocks made very good gains sofar, eg IBR +9.5 cents to 65; BSG +7.5 to 125.5.

Gold's high on Friday was 530.5; then sales took place and it fell to 525.6 on closing.

This morning, it started on 528, rose quickly to 531 and is now 534.1; Silver 9.06. USD 91.28 and oil 59.80.

FINANCIAL CRISIS LOOMING? by Chris Laird
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1211.html

HOW HIGH IS UP FOR GOLD? by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2005/1211.html

As Though It Were Real Money by John Mauldin
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin121105.html

GOLD UPDATE by Roland Watson
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/watson121105.html

Daily Metals Report
http://www.gold-eagle.com/dmr1.php

Hedge fund worry grows
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3500228.html

Gold prices ‘could hit $850’
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=64086&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report –Gold & Silver Go on a Rollercoaster Ride; Fed Tomorrow
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134449400.php

CURRENT: USD 90.31 (-0.9) Euro 1.195 Gold 527.4 (+1.8) Silver 8.75 Oil 61.39

Dollar dented ahead of Fed meeting
Chinese comments about dollar exposure add to stress
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&guid=%7B30138307-38B5-4B94-8F0B-CBB7E6701535%7D

US MONEY PRINTING TO CONTINUE! by Marc Faber, Ph.D.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/faber/2005/1212.html

Central Bankers Launch Opening Overt Salvo in Gold War
http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1134446782.php

Is It Spike-and-Bust - or 'STAIRWAY TO HEAVEN'for Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein121105.html

The Way I Saw It and See It- by Frank Barbera
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/1212.html

Knock The Dust Off Your Monitor! ~ Adrian's Hunt for Clues ~
by Bill Murphy, Chairman
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/murphy/2005/1212.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Fed Changes Their Language
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134509785.php

CURRENT: USD 90.34 Euro 1.193 Gold 517.0 Silver 8.45 Oil 61.15

Gold dull after FOMC hikes rates
Prices down over $2 after hours; indexes off session lows

BMO-Audio
http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp

Theodore Butler: Silver:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary.html

Gold to be Worth $1000 per ounce due to Irresponsible Bush Economic Policies
http://www.gold.ie/gold_investments_weekly_news.htm#Commentary

Saudi Arabia announces record budget surplus
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051212/bs_afp/saudieconomybudget_051212184733;_ylt=ArkL2LtdCxy57 rbijzXmMKKmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPU CUl

World oil demand growth to pick up next year: IEA
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051213/bs_afp/ieacommoditiesenergy_051213092235;_ylt=AkpS.FmDi.o 8nYP719kJZuSmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVR PUCUl

RBC, 13.12.2005, Moscow 15:39:18.
"Starting from January 1, 2006, details of gold reserves will be published on the basis of gold evaluations according to quotes by the Bank of Russia, bank's external and public relations department reports. At the moment a conditional price of USD300 per troy ounce is being used. The changes in the statistical recording are connected with the need for information to be published in accordance with current market realia."

[Mick100]

U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches All-Time High
Wednesday December 14, 6:05 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Surge in Oil Imports Helps Drive U.S. Trade Deficit to All-Time High in October


WASHINGTON (AP) -- A surge in oil imports and a flood of Chinese televisions, toys and computers helped to drive the U.S. trade deficit to an all-time high in October.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the gap between what America sells overseas and what it imports rose by 4.4 percent to $68.9 billion, surpassing the record of $66 billion set in September.




The United States incurred record deficits in October with most of its major trading partners including China, the 25-nation European Union, Canada and Mexico. This development is certain to increase protectionist pressures in Congress, with many lawmakers already unhappy with the Bush administration's trade policies.

The worse-than-expected October performance was blamed in part on the Gulf Coast hurricanes. They curtailed domestic production of oil, chemicals and plastics, forcing companies to turn to overseas suppliers.

Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight, a forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass., said the sharp deterioration in the deficit would shave about 1.1 percentage points from economic growth in the final three months of the year. He predicted it would come in at about 3 percent.

He also forecast that this year's trade deficit would reach $730 billion, compared with the record of $617.6 billion last year. He predicted next year's deficit would be an even worse $760 billion before the deficit finally begins to improve in 2007.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 59.79 points Wednesday to close at 10,883.51.

Critics pointed to the rising deficits as evidence that President Bush's trade policies have failed to protect U.S. workers from an onslaught of imports made in China and other low-wage countries. These critics blame the trade deficits for the loss of 3 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. over the past five years.

"Month after month, we see new record trade deficits that spell real trouble for the United States," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D. "Behind these deficits are massive numbers of American jobs lost to foreign countries."

The administration is pursuing free trade deals with individual countries and negotiating a new global trade agreement under the auspices of the World Trade Organization. Critics say that approach is not working.

"We just don't see how current U.S. strategy is going to reverse these very dangerous trends," said Alan Tonelson, a research fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council. The group represents mainly small U.S. manufacturing companies.

Various lawmakers said the administration has failed to do enough to address China's trade practices. They mentioned taking tougher action to force China to let its currency to rise in value against the dollar as a way of making U.S. goods more competitive.

Treasury Secretary John Snow said the key to improving the trade deficit was to get Europe and other major trading partners to boost their economic growth. That way, they could buy more U.S. exports.

He told reporters that America's strong growth and low unemployment showed that the U.S. economy was now in a "sweet spot." He spoke in a joint session with Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao where the Cabinet members highlighted the president's economic record.

Analysts had expected the October deficit to improve because global oil prices retreated after setting record highs in early September.

The average price of a barrel of imported oil did decline slightly to $56.29 in October, but the volume of shipments shot up as buyers turned to overseas suppliers following Gulf Coast production shutdowns. The total bill for imports in October hit a record of $25.8 billion, up 7.8 percent from September.

A surge of Chinese shipments of televisions, toys and computers delivered to U.S. stores for holiday shoppers pu

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Another Record High Trade Deficit
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134596055.php

CURRENT: USD 89.69 Euro 1.198 Gold 504.2 Silver 8.35 Oil 60.7

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened to a Record $68.9 Billion http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=adBqdvDboWoU&refer=home

GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar down, bonds up as Fed shifts rhetoric
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH52593_2005-12-14_10-51-25_L14397723

Global: The Global Capex Arbitrage by Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051212-mon.html

Gold Falls Most in a Year on Concern Speculative Buying Will Slow in Japan
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

Iraq: What to expect after 15 Dec elections:
http://www.pinr.com/

GOLD BULLION TAKES OFF. When Will Gold Shares Follow?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2005/1214.html

How to Buy Gold for $252 Per Ounce! by David Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/2005/1214.html

[stolwyk]

THE US: INTEREST RATES AND THE MONEY SUPPLY.

The two are connected but by raising interest rates and diluting the money supply by 10% or more, the FED is frantically experimenting with no certain positive outcome.

The only way to get rid of a lot of debt- and it is very high- is to dilute or inflate the money supply; the Foreign holders of US dollars won't like to see that happening. There is no alternative even if the proposed course is a dangerous one.

It is impossible to raise sufficient taxes or do anything which makes reasonably fast a hole in the debt. It is too late for that. Besides, 75% of its falsified GDP is consumption and the US is unwilling to take the hard steps to change that.

Officially, the increase in interest rates is to combat price inflation but much of the latter is the product from the FED's induced monetary inflation or increase in the M3 money supply:

In normal conditions, one would'nt want to increase interest rates and vastly increase the money supply as well, because the latter creates price inflation.

So what is the reason for increasing interest rates? Is it to combat price inflation the FED gives as a reason or is it something else? I bet it is the latter.

Increasing interest rates must ultimately cut down demand and if continued at some stage can cause a heavy recession or depression, particularly where it concerns the US which has run out of defenses.

If interest rate rises were stopped, the USD will fall and that can also lead to a recession/depression as the poor manufacturing capacity can't make much use of a lower dollar and increase exports.

Import prices will also rise but the major problem is the increased charge on the bulk of the Debt load when the US is forced to pay out more interest in foreign currency.

Lowering the value of the dollar forces foreigners to compensate and ask for a higher interest rates. That means that interest rates would rise anyway and possibly a lot higher than is the case now.

The prime intention is to water down the US debt by diluting the value of the money supply. At the same time interest rates are raised to primarily protect the dollar, not necessarily to combat the full price inflation.

However, this gradualistic approach to destroy debt this way takes quite a lot of time and at some stage interest rates increases need to be stopped as otherwise the economy will deflate quickly.

The FED already falsifies the real CPI which is thought to be about twice the given CPI. It can falsify it more by leaving out items which contribute more to the CPI.

It can also not disclose the extent of the dilution of the M3 money supply, so currency traders and other interested bodies are flying blind. A very serious matter in international economic relations but the average US citizen may well be blissfully unaware.

I think that the last word on the coming non-disclosure of M3 by the FED has not been said; it is also clear that the monetary policy exercised by the FED over a number of years has left the the future of the US in tatters.

Is all this good for Gold? I think it is.
The FED has taken various steps to control the Gold price by artificially lowering the the CPI and hence indicate that inflation is low, therefore, the price of Gold as an indicator of inflation, ought to be low. To keep the price of Gold low, The FED practices market intervention as much as possible. However, high demand for Gold will ultimately negate the FED's intentions.

It is no secret that the increase of the Gold price was primarily due to the FED diluting the money by 10% in the last 3 months. Other factors have also played a role. Increasing the money suply can also be used to liquify the economic system in an emergency situation.

That is my opinion.

Gerry
First posted 14 Dec, 8.40 pm. Current Gold price: $504.3

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – An Economic Slew of Data
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134682417.php

CURRENT: USD 89.76 Euro 1.194 Gold 497.5 Silver 8.46 Oil 59.98

A. Merk: Will Bernanke Create Hyperinflation?
http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1134681000.php

Grandich Letter Special Alert
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/dec152005.html

INFLATION?
"The Obvious Is Obviously Wrong
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin121305.html

DOUBLE BARRELS AGAINST US$
Jim Willie CB Dec 14, 2005
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie121405.html

How to Buy Gold for $252 Per Ounce! by David Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/2005/1214.html

Global: The Global Capex Arbitrage by Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=2&tid=264254&sym=&MSGNO=132101#132101

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver Lose About 5% on the Week
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1134792060.php

CURRENT: USD 89.40 Euro 1.20 Gold 502.75 Silver 8.52 Oil 58.06

COT GOLD: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1134765214.php
COT SILVER: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1134765267.php

UPDATE 5-Gold off but above $500, finds physical demand
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh2103 5_2005-12-16_20-18-25_l16214146_newsml

P. Shiff: The Dollar Breaks Down
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1134753275.php

China to be world's 4th biggest economy after GDP revision- Standard Chartered
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2005/12/15/afx2393646.html

Bank of Japan to Keep Pumping Cash Into the Economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aA5CeNIhzBww&refer=asia

German Business Confidence Jumps to Five-Year High
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aQFXVQ9vT0iE&refer=top_world_news

Mogambo Guru: Please Sell me some of your Gold
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/dec152005.html

[stolwyk]

There's No Inflation! HAHAHA!
http://www.dailypfennig.com

Frank Barbera thinks the Gold price could fall to $480
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Stolwyk: problems with Peruvian investments to come?
http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp
He broadcasts weekly and his last one was on 16 Dec, US/CAN time).
Somewhat difficult to connect at times but he does mention items of interest.
He mentioned that in Peru elections were to be held next year and that the current President could be replaced by someone radical. That person advocates nationalisation of mining.

Apparently the Peruvian Stock Exchange prices are moving downwards.
There have been a few problems with mining in Peru. I don't hold any stock with Peruvian assets.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

P van Eeden: China sees the writing on the wall:
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=137
__________

Stolwyk: I would only select Silver shares which have a GOLD backing because Gold is far more expensive than base metals often associated with Silver.
The advantage of having Gold with Silver is, that one does'nt have to wait with mining till the Silver price is high enough.

Having Silver with lower priced base metals means that at present many Silver mines are not productive or are uneconomic.
My first question when selecting a "Silver" stock is: has it got Gold and how much? I won't buy anything else no matter how well the story is presented.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Future could be on the road to gold
http://www.denverpost.com/allewis

GFMS Chairman Predicts "Record Level of Central Bank Buying
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=15465

Silver to outperform gold, says Barclays
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=111673

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Find Slight Gains
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1135028309.php

CURRENT: USD 89.57 Euro 1.20 Gold 503.45 Silver 8.52 Oil 58.30

Controlling Gold Over Time by Nelson Hultberg
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hultberg/2005/1219.html

IMPERIAL FINANCE by John Mackenzie
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mackenzie/2005/1219.html

The McClellan Market Report
Blowoff Top in Gold an Historic Event
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan121605.html

Comment: there is too much emphasis on price inflation. Gold listens to watering down of the money supply or Monetary inflation. Hence, it is difficult to compare historic events. Monetary Inflation is now getting a good hold of the US (Running at 10%).
_______________________

China: Gold bars for 2008 begin sale
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/19/content_3940437.htm

Gold May Gain as Investors Seek Hedge Against Inflation Threat
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aJP.v5POJJWA&refer=latin_america

Gold rallies as Japanese buyers return
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c90e6408-7083-11da-89d3-0000779e2340.html

Gold Rises as Tokyo Exchange Says It Will Lower Trading Costs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001065&sid=a9vG3995VUSc&refer=movers_by_index

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Fall Sharply
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1135114974.php

CURRENT: USD 90.51 Euro 1.186 Gold 492.7 Silver 8.23 Oil 58.17

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- February gold closed at $497 an ounce, down $9.10, or 1.8%, at its lowest ending level since Nov. 23. Analysts blamed the drop on pre-holiday and pre-weekend book-squaring. Indexes mirrored the move, with the Amex Gold Bugs Index last trading at 252.44, down 2.4%.
This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

Global: The Symbiosis Trap by Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051216-fri.html

China's Economy May Become World's Fourth-Biggest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aRQQgWCg5YBk&refer=top_world_news


Conrad: Gold’s Crazy Action in the Week of 12/16/05
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1135095395.php

Venezuela's pipeline deals
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=406

Banks' American nightmare by Dan Atkinson, Financial Mail
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=405805&in_page_id=2

Venezuela's Chavez Uses `Hedge Fund' to Buy Bonds, Sway Region Listen
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aHxz857mizl0&refer=latin_america

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Mining Equities Gain Despite Mixed Metals
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1135200721.php

CURRENT: USD 90.80 Euro 1.182 Gold 495.2 Silver 8.38 OIl 58.93

Swanson: Gold Correction and Phase Two
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/dec202005.html

Conrad: Futures on Gold's Future 12/08/05
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=428

THE BIG PICTURE
with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler
Transcript of December 17, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2005/1217.html

China plans to relax gold trade curbs
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/051220/3/2cq3z.html

December 21, 2005 -- Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian is starting to unload some of his baffling investment in General Motors, pushing the stock toward a free-fall, and losing more than $650 million in six months.
http://www.nypost.com/business/59962.htm

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Jumps Back Above $500
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1135287485.php

CURRENT: USD 90.46 Euro 1.186 Gold 503.8 Silver 8.50 Oil 58.29

T/A: Euro Bullish Divergence By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1135189239.php

Gold Gains For 2nd Day in Asia Amid Rising Demand From Jewelers
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=a_CTI3ri4MvE&refer=europe

What Next for Gold? By David Vaughn
December 22, 2005
http://www.kitco.com/ind/vaughn/dec222005.html

Global Gold Breakouts By Adam Hamilton
December 22, 2005
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/dec222005.html

"future gold and silver prices" - jason hommel
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/Future_Gold_and_Silver_Prices.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver End the Week Flat
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1135373691.php

CURRENT: USD 90.55 Euro 1.187 Gold 502.7 Silver 8.56 Oil 58.43

Gold Trades Above $500 in Asia Amid Demand From Jewelers, Funds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aBm483rPTXb8&refer=germany

COT GOLD: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1135370034.php
COT SILVER: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1135370084.php

Barrick Agrees to Buy Placer Dome for $10.4 Billion
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=avKk2eX3boa4&refer=news_index

US: Nov. New Home Sales Fall; Unsold Homes at Record http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a5XtzlPLSGS8&refer=home

Bolivia to nationalze oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051221/bolivia_oil_companies.html?.v=2

Financial sense being presented now:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Don Coxe: http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp

[stolwyk]

WHISTLING PAST GRAVEYARDS
by Peter Schiff
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1223.html

FIAT MONEY INFLATION IN THE U.S.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1223c.html

Gold Trades Above $500 in Asia Amid Demand From Jewelers, Funds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aBm483rPTXb8&refer=germany

Futures on Gold's Future - Update
by Bud Conrad
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/conrad/2005/1222.html

Wind power: no panaceas
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/gue/2005/1223.html

THE FED'S TURN TO FAIL by Steven Lachance
December 23, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1223.html

[GB]

Gerry - many thanks for all the fine work you have done on this forum - I have seen you grow in the years i have been visiting Sharetrader-your ability to identify (positve) trends and individual companies belies your age - or maybe conversly your time in the markets has become your main strike weapon - happy new year to all ( in time this thread imo will make more money for new investors than any single other

[stolwyk]

Thanks for that, GB.

We all have winners and losers, however, commodities will favour us.

Your contributions have been missed and I hope you are able to visit ST more often.

I do think this thread is becoming more interesting as the financial pressure is being applied to the US and other countries.

A prosperous New Year to you!

Gerry

[stolwyk]

US Builders cut prices to sell homes:
http://www.newscoast.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051223/BUSINESS/512230430

U.S. Nov. New Home Sales Fall; Unsold Homes at Record
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a5XtzlPLSGS8&refer=home

Extract:
"Jobs
A slower housing sector may mean fewer jobs in mortgage lending, real estate and construction.

Since 2001, the housing market accounted for 50 percent of U.S. economic growth and more than half of private payroll jobs creation, according to a report in August by Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's largest securities firm.

U.S. mortgage lenders will trim 10 percent to 15 percent of their record 535,000 employees next year, said Orawin Velz, director of forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

``We're expecting a decline in employment because we expect the volume of originations to decline pretty significantly next year -- 20 percent,'' Velz said.

The number of mortgage applications fell to the second- lowest level this year in the week ended Dec. 16, according to the mortgage bankers' group.

Consumer Spending

The decline in home sales and price appreciation next year may slow consumer spending and economic growth.

The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, and may average 3.4 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 72 economists published Dec. 9. Consumer spending will average 2.8 percent next year, the survey showed, after rising 4.1 percent in the third quarter.

``The housing market is definitely cooling,''' said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research Corp. in New York. This suggests that the October record was the result of last minute purchasers in a rising mortgage rate environment."

P.v Eeden: The end of the real estate boom
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=138
___________________________________________

BEST OF BILL BUCKLER-December 20, 2005
http://www.investmentrarities.com/thebestofbb.html

China faces dilemma on expanding gold reserve
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-12/26/content_506730.htm

The outlook for mining and takeovers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20051226/RMINERS26/Business/Idx

[stolwyk]

WHAT'S THE FED UP TO WITH THE MONEY SUPPLY?
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2005/1226.html

Comment: Yes, Bernanke is reducing value of debt by sharply increasing the money supply-as predicted previously.

Financial Sense mentioned that some time ago, the M3 money supply was running at a fast annual clip of +10%.

Seems that we are running between 15% -20% now.

Anyway, Bernanke can always blame Greenspan when things are going wrong.

We are in for a bout of price inflation; it is no use hiding the M3 data in March. However, the CPI and GDP are being falsified anyway.

No modern self respecting country will hide its M3 data.

The time has arrived when anything unpleasant is either falsified or hidden. Very few trustworthy facts come from the FED nowadays.

What must other countries think? And what will the US' creditors think?

What does all this mean for Gold?

I won't be selling mine!
__________________________________________

27 Dec 2005.

Holders of Gold metal lost initially twice as much value compared with those holding Gold stocks and many gold stocks have virtually recovered but the metal has not as yet.

When the Gold price fell from 540 to 489, the loss was 9.4 %. Yet, many Gold stocks lost 5% or less.

At the current price of about 503, many Gold shares have nearly recovered the amount they lost, but Gold is still down 6.9%.

Of course, unlike the metal, Gold Companies' activities continue: Goldcorp finalized its massive brilliant deal and recovered.

BSG was after a small correction $1.34 before the Gold price dropped; it is now $1.33; what will the price be once the Gold price recovers to 540?

WTC,TSX was CAN$12.26 before the fall, it is now $12.86 because it is speeding up operations.

IBR is at a high, regardless of any fall in gold price.

A Gold company can overcome a fall in the Gold price when it is active enough to deal with it: it may announce gold production from say 100k ounces to 200k ounces; or it is announcing an increase in resources.

It can do what the dormant impotent metal can't.

Of course if the premium on a Gold Company is too high then a severe fall will shave some off it off.

But stocks which are in an expansive mood, have not suffered much if at all or have improved their postion.

Mind you, I am not advocating that one should'nt hold the metal Gold but at this stage of the envisaged long uptrend, I prefer certain Gold stocks and not the metal.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

"Life is either a daring adventure or nothing."
Helen Keller
_________________________________________

Thin trading but Gold is rising:

CURRENT: USD 90.85 Euro 1.185 Gold 509.9 (+6.40) Silver 8.77 Oil 57.85

[stolwyk]

Gold in New York Gains for 5th Straight Session After Swings
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=a6.PvSON0Clk&refer=australia

CURRENT: USD 90.85 Euro 1.184 Gold 516.4 Silver 8.81 Oil 60.32

China lays down gauntlet in energy war
By F William Engdahl
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GL21Ad01.html

COMMODITY PROFITS 2006
by George Kleinman
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kleinman/2005/1227.html

Wiillie:
FORCES IN YIELD CURVE INVERSION
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie122805.html

Enrico Orlandini-Lasco Report
THE GOLD REPORT-What to Buy and Why!
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini122905.html

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
Buy Silver and Gold Regardless
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1135785501.php

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 90.96 EURO 1.185 GOLD 516.5 SILVER 8.82 OIL 61.04 (+0.72)

COT Gold Report: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1135974842.php
COT Silver Report: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1135974958.php

By Richard Daughty, "The Mogambo Guru"
I Love this Investing Stuff! It's so Easy!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/dec282005.html

Peak Copper Means Peak Silver
http://news.silverseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1135873932.php

Omens of the coming Real Estate Bubble?
http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read.html?id=5723

Analysts: U.S. Currency to Fall in 2006
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051229/foreign_exchange_outlook.html?.v=2

[tricha]

Gold ends 2005 over 18% higher Good as Gold
Analysts upbeat on 2006 on jeweler, investor demand

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:26 PM ET Dec. 30, 2005
Disable MW live quotes | E-mail it | Print | Discuss | Alert | Reprint |

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures finished higher Friday, extending their winning streak to six sessions and ending 2005 with a gain of over $80 an ounce.



MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS
Bond funds defy rising-interest-rate climate
U.S. stocks slump as Dow suffers yearly loss
Oil futures log 40% gain, natural gas up 83% on year
A tale of shale
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Gold for February delivery closed at $518.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.40 for the session. The front-month contract on Dec. 30, 2004 closed at $438.40 -- that equates to a year-on-year gain of 18%, or $80.50.

Gold's current contract closed at $453.10 a year ago to log a gain of 15%, or $65.80.

Metals trading on the exchange closed by 12:10 p.m. Eastern time Friday, ahead of the New Year's holiday on Monday. Regular trading will resume Tuesday.

In the meantime, analysts remained upbeat about gold's prospects.

"Gold may be going out quietly on the last day of 2005, but if you think 2005 was noisy, just wait and see 2006," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"Strong physical and investment demand, increasing geopolitical concerns here and abroad and the likelihood of a resumption of the bear market in the U.S. dollar are all factors that should drive gold towards its all-time highs," he said.

Elsewhere in the metals sector Friday, March silver tacked on 0.8 cent to close at $8.89 an ounce, with the current contract ending the year 26.9% higher.

January platinum added $8.80 to finish at $973 an ounce -- up about 13% for the year, while March palladium closed at $256.50 an ounce, up $4.70 for the session and up about 41% for the year.

March copper closed down 0.35 cent Friday, with the current contract up 61% from the year-ago close, at $2.042 a pound.

On the supply side, copper inventories were up 62 short tons at 6,814 short tons as of late Thursday, according to the Nymex. Gold supplies were up 160,022 troy ounces at 6.66 million and silver stocks were flat at 120.0 million troy ounces.

Gold `reasserted itself'

During the past year, gold "finally reasserted itself as something other than a 'sky-is-falling' refuge and ... emerged as a fourth global currency," said Jon Nadler, investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

And "millions of prudent investors across the globe came to the conclusion that a portfolio without gold was a luxury they could no longer afford."

Given strong demand in China and India, "enormous amounts of deficits accumulating in the U.S." and "price and expenditure shocks" brought on by several hurricanes among other things, "it is relatively easy to conclude that even a modest allocation of 5% to 10% can only benefit one's portfolio and hedge against structural dollar weakness," said Nadler.

Add to that inflation pressures, political instability and low yields on cash instruments, and the "case for gold ownership becomes compelling," he said.

A look forward

This past year has merely been a "warm-up for 2006," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

"The perfect (financial) storm is about to come raining down on us, and the precious metals will be the place to be in the coming year," he said.

[stolwyk]

29 DEC-- WANT CHEAP OIL?

I covered that problem a long time ago and mentioned that it will be very difficult to get cheap oil:

1. Since this subject was discussed, say 12 months ago, another 30.5 Billion barrels has been used up. And in the next 12 months, about 32 Bill barrels will be consumed.

So, while discussing oil, the heavy drain continues.

2. While some savings have been made (Americans burning corn), it can only slow the outflow down to a minor extent. Anyway, China and India will soon take up the slack.

3. The situation with Demand/Supply has been changed. In the past, one could get oil from anywhere; it is now moving into the fuzzy geo-political area.

Countries are trying to set aside oil to be used later (This oil could have been sold to someone else but won't be).

It is more important to secure oil for future use than for today. Therefore, large oil reservoirs are sold to some but not to others: oil is being locked in.

This tends to keep prices higher than should be.

4. The various risks associated with oil need to be factored into the oil price as well. The "Iranian" risk is another addition we could do without.

5. The true Inflation in the US is running at some 6.5-7% at present. So, if oil is say $60, then one could expect $64 a year later. At a constant USD price, this need not be so and while the inflation for other items is high, inflation for oil may not increase; the oil feels cheaper and useage again increases.

6. The USD is now being watched from now on and predictions are it will go down. There is a limit to the protection one can give the USD by raising interest rates. The USD has benefitted from much lower interest rated in Europe but that could change.

7. The US depends more and more on import of oil and gas; its refinery infrastructure is totally inadequate, states want a vast number of different gasoline make-ups and they are slipping back quickly. Stringent laws on siting and building refineries and extracting oil makes the whole situation ridiculous.

8. Sofar, China is winning the oil war; OPEC and North Africa are even more important to the US now avenues of supply are slowly being closed off. I think that the US outlook in a year's time will be more negative than now.

However, there is always Canada's oil sands to fall back on while production of gasoline from coal will be more intensively practiced, I suppose.

CHEAP OIL?

Only $60 today.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Holds some oil stocks, AMU is one of these.

[stolwyk]

E. Hommelberg:
Junior Festival 2006 - Part I
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg/dec292005.html

Year of the 'perfect economic storm' around the bend
http://www.desertsunonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051229/COLUMNS26/512290309/1215

TAYLOR ON GOLD
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor010106.html

Extract:
"So what about M-3 the past week? The latest figures show that on a seasonally adjusted basis, M-3 rose 27.3 billion last week, a 14.0 percent annualized clip, and is up $76 billion over the past month, a 9.8 percent growth rate. But those are the massaged numbers. For the raw figures, fasten your seat belt. Are you ready? M-3 was increased $58.7 billion last week (that does not include the huge Repo infusions noted above), a 30.0 percent annualized rate of growth. For the past two week, the Fed added $93.5 billion to the money supply, a 24.0 percent annual clip. Over the past 6 weeks it is up $192.9 billion, a 16.7 percent Banana Republic hyper-inflationary pace. This is nuts, folks - unless there is an incredible risk out there we are not being told about. That is a lot of money for the Plunge Protection Team's ****nal to buy markets - stocks, bonds, currencies, whatever. This level of irresponsible money supply growth makes shorting markets hazardous, yet at the same time says markets are at huge risk of declining. Maybe M-3 growth doesn't stop the decline this time. Should be a fascinating storm in 2006.

"The recent rise in Gold catalogued 74 points over about a month, a 16 percent rally from precisely the day the Fed announced it would hide M-3 from taxpayers and citizens of this great nation. That is no coincidence. Gold sees hyperinflation, monetization of debt, and intervention into free markets. Gold is telling us it expects Ben Bernanke to be an inflationist"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Yield Curve John Mauldin
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin123105.html

Chart Of The Year Jack Chan
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chan010106.html

[GB]

M3 is nothing to worry about Gerry (re: your view raising rates to crimp the money supply - they wont do what they have done before -they will raise rates and raise the money supply- you havent heard this before because they havent done it before - why are they wiping the m3 index while rasing rates - the answer is in the question )- sure it will increase but gold will tell you where the problem is -it always has and it always will- i bought in at 265 gold because i knew - if you really want to know where this whole deal is going i will lead you to part of the answer - Secrets of the temple - read it 50 times or more as many times as it takes to be ahead of the fed-and then understand that the fed deal will fail( except that the public will pay for their faliure) and when the pool has been emptied it will start to fill again-( and the fed will say we told you so- read Greenspans constant warnings ) too cryptic ? - the fiat paper money system will always be with us - its what happens between the emptying and the filling of the pool (money supply)that matters
think of the money supply as a swimming pool as it fills it destroys the value of the paper filling it - when it begins to overflow - ie now paper finds a home real estate commods etc - when it becomes evident to the general public(not yet) that their paper is losing value faster than they can earn it - Argentina Weimar germany etc- then they look for a storehouse of wealth - gold- by then its probably too late for most - - the pool empties and the a new currency gold backed or not -starts to fill the pool all over again sadly those caught out see their wealth go down the plug hole - those savvy enough to do the research convert their metals - real money to the new currency - never sell metals in a hyper inflationary environment for worthless paper - convert to the new currency wait for deflation to take hold and your in
btw another great book is bankruptcy 1995 - - was he wrong because he was 10 years early - or just wrong on the timing ?? you choose- take special note of the graphs where South American countries countries went into a short term deflation( after a period of high inflation) fooling everyone before hyper - inflation kicked in- we can expect the same -when you hear the fed say it is concerned about inflation you know they are lying- the only way the fed makes money is from inflation- deflation kills everything- thats why they inflate or die -you never hear them say they are fearfull of deflation -simple huh

[GB]

Got trapped in Afghanistan via Hibiscus Coast- happy new year

[stolwyk]

Thanks GB.

The Big Picture: with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2005/1224.html

India: Banks won`t let you miss gold glitter
http://www.business-standard.com/smartinvestor/storypage.php?hpFlag=Y&chklogin=N&autono=210397&leftnm=lmnu6&leftindx=6&lselect=0

MEXICO: THE STATE, OIL AND SILVER
http://www.silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=0&id=595

The End Of The Innocence by Rob Kirby
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rkirby010106.html

Year of the 'perfect economic storm' around the bend
http://www.desertsunonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051229/COLUMNS26/512290309/1215

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold, Silver & Their Miners Surge Higher
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1136347200.php

CURRENT: USD 89.57 Euro 1.203 Gold 534.2 Silver 9.16 Oil 62.79

Dollar Drops Most in 3 Months as U.S. Factory Expansion Slows
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aigboBCxmq8s&refer=us

Gold at Fahrenheit 451
By: Richard J. Greene, Thunder Capital Management
http://news.goldseek.com/ThunderCapitalManagement/1136305416.php

Gold Smashes Dollar in 2006
http://news.goldseek.com/TexasHedge/1136325187.php

2005 Was Some Year, However, It Will Pale Compared To 2006
By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc., LemetropoleCafe.com
http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1136300400.php

Dollar drop still coming, Buffett and banks agree
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/02/business/dollar.php

[stolwyk]

NY gold ends at 3-week high, eyes December's peak
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?
duid=mtfh48346_2006-01-04_20-35-17_n04544166_newsml

CURRENT: USD 89.11 EURO 1.209 GOLD 532.0 SILVER 9.07 OIL 63.32

The True Path to an Embarrassment of Riches Via Technical Analysis
By Richard Daughty,
"The Mogambo Guru"
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan042006.html

2005 Review and Outlook for 2006-By Peter Grandich
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/jan032006.html

Bear Stearns to start precious metals trading
http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/051228/b122852.html

Excerpts From – “Gold Forecaster – Global Watch” w-e 5th January 2006
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1136433600.php

2006 – Gold to Continue Higher! By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1136394000.php

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Fall Sharply
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1136497624.php

CURRENT: USD 89.08 EURO 1.211 Gold 524.1 Silver 8.73 Oil 62.98

China lays down gauntlet in energy war
By F William Engdahl
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GL21Ad01.html

GM, Ford, Chrysler December U.S. Auto Sales Fall (Update7)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aiDOQ3Gqyn9U&refer=us

China's Central Bank Sets 16% Money Supply Target
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aT0PGia9DD5k&refer=asia

Junior Festival 2006 - Part II By Eric Hommelberg
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg/jan052006.html

Congress Approves .9999 Fine Gold Coins
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/haynes010406.html

Top forecaster sees U.S. recession -By Joshua Krongold
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002717303_bonds03.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold and Silver End the Week on a High-Note
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1136779200.php

Comment: Hedge Funds coming back as well. The next moves on Monday and Tuesday could be decisive.

CURRENT: USD 88.63 Euro 1.215 Gold 539.1 Silver 9.09 Oil 64.21

P. Schiff: dollar gets new year mark down
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2006/0106.html

Gold And Silver Rocket … Gold Cartel In All Out Panic … Commercial Signal Failure
http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1136782751.php

DANGEROUS FORECASTS by Roger Conrad
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2006/0106.html

Simmons on oil:
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0601035729190447.htm

John Williams, Consulting Economist & newsletter writer:
Shadow Government Statistics: Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
AUDIO:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Williams.html

China signals reserves switch away from dollar
By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Andrew Balls in Washington
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e25-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html

Chris Laird: ETFS ARE NOT REAL ASSETS by Chris Laird
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0106.html

[stolwyk]

THE ARMAGEDDON INDEX

Previous update: 31 July 2005.
This series started on 13 April 2005. Updates: 20/4, 5/5/, 19/5, 31 July and 11/1/06. Previous assessment numbers are noted.


Update now: initial preparation.
Item:
Continuing deficits: Increase rating from 8 to 9.5

Rising oil prices which bring in more inflation: Amend (previous) 8 to 9

US stockmarket: Increase 8 to 8.5

Trade wars: Increase 8.5 to 9

Resource wars: Amend 7.5 to 8.5

Currency wars: Amend 9 to 9.5

Effect of Outsourcing: Amend 8.5 to 9

Refusal to increase exports: From 8 to 9.

European unemployment: From 8.5 to 9

Total increase: 7.0 points.
_______________________

APPLICATION-AMENDING PREVIOUS UPDATE.
As the rating approaches (10), it becomes worse; eg. a stockmarket with a rating 8.5 signifies that it is either closer to a crash (10) or heavy falls can be expected.

THE ABERRATIONS:
High, continuing deficits leading to interest rate rises: 9.5, 8, 8, 8. 7.5

Rising oil prices which bring in more inflation: 9, 8, 7.5, 7

Stockmarkets set for a downturn (Thanks Bruce R): 8.5 8, 7.5, 7

Trade wars: China is increasing its exports in a big way and that clashes with that of other countries. Apart from raw resources, China doesn't really need to import that much given time, once the R&D is transferred to them-it gradually is-. 9, 8.5, 8, 7.5, 6.5

Resource wars: 8.5, 7.5, 7, 6.5

Currency wars: 9.5, 9, 8.5, 8

Effects of underrated OUTSOURCING is starting to show in the more prominent countries. 9, 8.5, 8, 7.5

Increase / Decrease in US consumption: 9

A refusal by the US to increase exports of goods (a mere 8% of GDP). 9, 8

European unemployment. 9, 8.5 8, 7.45

Gold: Gold production to decline over next 3 years (Thanks Tasg): 8.5, 8, 7.5


There are 11 items and the mean (average) is "the Armageddon Index": 8.95 (11/1/06), 8.32, 8.18, 7.95, 7.72, 7.45

The combined effects of these items can severely undermine the dollar and / or the Euro.

It is clear that we must be well on the way in meeting those conditions. Not all are needed to make the gold price rise but a simultaneously coming together of a number of negative outcomes is a powerful driver to bring about a significant rise in the price of precious metals, IMHO.

These ratings will be updated from time to time.

That is my opinion.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

When will the Gold price be US$600?

There is much talk about Gold reaching 550-600 this year but that does'nt take account of the myriad problems the US and other countries have.

For starters, the US seems to have lost initiative in many areas thanks to Bush' disastrous policies. He is virtually a lame duck: the Rose Garden does'nt feature as often anymore.

There is'nt really a co-ordinated energy policy, many US citizens are more interested in tax cuts and selling the future of Generations to come.

Frequent references have been made to monetizing debt. THe US is in such a bind that really nothing will get them out of the deep hole they have been digging for themselves.

As mentioned, the staggering increase in the money supply at the current rate of 15% per year to wipe out debt and support the DOW or anything else that needs support ("We can't afford a depression or recession") is well understood-their policies have utterly failed.

Unfortunately, the US legislators or the public either has'nt got access to those news sources which could prepare them or don'nt care too much.

So, from March, the increase of the money supply (watering down debt) won't be divulged and that is a great worry. I have frequently referred to this.

The FED wants to do it in secret and does'nt want us to know the degree of monetary inflation and real price inflation as a consequence.

I don't know how Europe will take this given their penchant for M3 disclosure.

The last word has'nt been said but I am suggesting that the time scale for Gold to reach certain new heights needs to be telescoped and is much shorter than is generally thought.

Therefore, I don't think it will take that long to reach $600 with perhaps a correction thrown it.

The economic situation of some countries is far worse than thought.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Sofar: The Gold price hit $551 a couple of days ago but then wandered back to 540. However, the USD is falling and Gold did well last night:

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Climb Back
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1137015597.php

CURRENT: USD 88.75 Euro 1.212 Gold 547.4 Silver 9.00 Oil 63.94

THE FED'S MONEY SUPPLY ARMAMENT IS UNDERWAY-by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/0109.html

Profitable and Boring - By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1136991600.php

July 2, 2005
Marc Faber, Ph.D. "Dr. Doom"-Inflation, Deflation
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Faber.html

Hartman: US. Economy Weakens with Probable Dollar Problems Ahead
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm

Why The Gold Cartel Messed With The Wrong Irishman / A Salute To My Hero
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/jan102006.html

Beyond Keynes to Inflation-By Richard Benson
http://www.kitco.com/ind/benson/jan092006.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Take a Rollercoaster Ride
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1137124860.php

CURRENT: USD 89.22 EURO 1.204 Gold 545.8 Silver 8.92 Oil 63.92

The End of Labor-Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060109-mon.html

2006 - The Year Americans Will Begin To Pay the Piper
By Peter Grandich - January 10, 2006
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/jan102006.html

Derivative backlogs rise despite efforts -Markit
By David Wigan
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-12T130328Z_01_L12611867_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-CONFIRMS.XML

Willie: Countdown to Energy War
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1137078123.php

Oil Prices Stay Above $64 on Iran Fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060112/oil_prices.html?.v=13

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Trade deficit fell $4 mill -does it matter?

It fell from US$68 Bill. to US$64 Bill, still a sizable deficit.
The problem is that it is still open to upgrading later.

The US exports a lot of planes, particularly Boeings. If these were paid for by the country ordering these, then it would be part of the Trade Balance.

However, the FED also includes options for new planes; these may not be paid for later on because the option may not be taken up or alternatively this option is replaced by another one put on a newer superior plane.

The FED considers that taking an option on planes means that these have been paid, thus the full cash transaction has been completed.

This Enron style of accounting is not acceptable.

The problem is that someone may take an option which takes 2 or more years to carry out due to waiting time for delivery.

__________________________________

The Budget Deficit is also fudged, because all costs associated with the war in Iraq and those incurred in Afghanistan are not included. Instead, these are quietly added to the trillions of Govt debt already owing.

Does the US public know or care?

Smoke and mirror stuff,

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold Ends the Week at a New 25 Year High
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1137211260.php

CURRENT: USD 88.66 EURO 1.213 GOLD 555.6 SILVER 9.11 OIL 63.92

COT Gold: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1137184913.php
COT Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1137185059.php

U.S. December Producer Prices Rise 0.9%; Core Prices Up 0.1%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a13FCKO02skY&refer=home

Hedge funds bet on gold
http://www.gold.org/value/news/article/3262/

The Daily Pfennig 1/13/06: Everyone... Just Calm Down!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=487

Real Gold Highs? By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC
http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1137174280.php

Deficit Could Top $400 Billion By Jonathan Weisman
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/12/AR2006011201821.html

The Illusion of a Rising Dow By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1137177128.php

[GB]

Now you could buy the Dow twice over - Gold has doubled the Dow isnt even back to its old highs - in 5 years-Dow to gold was 42 - now 20 -yuk yuk- i will convert at 1-1
if you find a fork in the road take it - Yogi Berra

[stolwyk]

Nice one, GB.

THE COMING RESOURCE WARS
Much has been said about competition for resources, eg India has asked China to go easy on pricing in a takeover as they can't compete.

Yes, India will always play second fiddle when it comes to ruthless acquisition of resources.

There are a few interesting spin-offs:
The first is investment in a Chinese controlled resource company. I would be wary with that as the tactics used when acquiring assets are all embracing: it will include political and other expensive objectives as well.

To make friends with a new country with resources but no money, the Chinese are quite prepared to build a port, railways and throw in a few more goodies so as to not only lock in the asset but also create goodwill: it shows the people how sincere China is in doing something for the people while "emperialists" just rob the country.

The certainty of locking in commodities for China, is more important than just making profits at an earlier stage.
____________________________

The drive to lock in very economic mines takes on more urgency with both China and India freeing up USD. They would be primarily interested in long lasting mines.

They won't necessarily use these now but they will be set aside for future use. Other countries may not have state sponsored companies and can't afford this modus operandi. They will ultimately finish up with inferior mines and higher costs.

This urge to secure and if necessary hoard commodities keeps up their prices subject to fluctuation from time to time. It ought to underpin GOLD prices as well.

And it gets worse when some countries lock out others or want extravagant taxes.

The bigger picture is one where the "West" need to secure oils and other commodities from less friendly sources. There will be friction and temporary delays later on.

This will of course benefit Canada and Australia who also have much wanted strategic commodities and deposits which can be developed when metal prices remain high.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks, metals or commodities.

[easy money]

thats a nice story you have just wrote..i am quite keen on shn for the reasons you have just covered....china's money will finance the mine and china's money will buy all it can produce...it all makes perfect sense...

[stolwyk]

CORRECTION OR NOT?

Barbera, a wellknown Chartist, apologised profusely for having advised investors to sell their Gold shares in Dec, when the Gold price went from 542 to 490.

The Gold price certainly moved down but the Gold shares lost little, if anything and are now much higher.

So, many listeners who had sold their shares in Dec. contacted him and asked where the re-entry level would be.

He is now predicting another correction while Acouch has warned us about difficulties when Gold reaches $573.

I don't make downward predictions as I don't know what Geopolitical factor may suddenly come from nowhere.

The Iranian Bourse is supposed to open in March. This will knock the USD somewhat. We also have Bernanke declaring there won't be any M3 data published at that time ond none thereafter.

The rhetoric coming from the US and Iran is becoming sharper and is reaching new heights (The Iranian president's address presented live on the BBC overnight).

So the question: is there is room for a retracement during the period from now till the opening of the Oil Bourse?

Will that period be too short and will increasing heat from geopolitical events prevent it or either reduce it to a very minor one?

I am sticking to the the last proposal and won't sell any gold shares. That is not advice of course.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

M. Faber: Is Mr. Bernanke good news for equity and bond markets?
http://www.ameinfo.com/72212.html

Why the Fed has no other alternative but to print money!
http://www.ameinfo.com/69637.html

U.S. hovers close to its debt ceiling
Treasury boss says government business could be affected
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/01/08/BUG7IGJHEI1.DTL&type=business

Iran wants diplomacy not threats in nuclear impasse
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15677639.htm

Excerpts From – “Gold Forecaster – Global Watch” w-e 13th January 2006
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1137370020.php

Retiring with Bernanke -- Are You Prepared?
http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1137337200.php

[GB]

Gee you just about covered the whole deal there Gerry - good stuff - cheers
Marc Faber said in the above article "that even if Americans returned to their "normal " savings rate the GDP would fall %7- ouch -can you say over extended

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 88.97 (+0.63) EURO 1.211 GOLD 560.8 SILVER: 9.24 OIL 64.72 (+0.80)

Petrov: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse-Good read.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/petrov/petrov011706.html

Financial Sense Newshour:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Excerpts from GLOBAL WATCH: THE GOLD FORECASTER
by Julian D.W. Phillips- January 16, 2006
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0116.html

Schmidt: Trading Thoughts-THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2006/0116.html

THE PARTY AIN'T OVER YET-Eric Hommelberg
January 16, 2006
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg011606.html

Jay Taylor's Gold Review
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor011506.html

Zurbuchen: The World's Cumulative Gold and Silver Production
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zurbuchen011506.html

[stolwyk]

A correction started in Japan:
"Dealers said futures extended a pullback from the prior day after Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) gold tumbled on heavy selling timed to meet margin calls amid a drop in the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei share average fell 3 percent Wednesday in a broad sell-off".

Finally Gold fell to 539.45 and then recovered today. It is now 549.5

CURRENT: USD 89.16 EURO 1.21 SILVER 8.91 OIL 66.35

The Global Delta, Part II by Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060117-tue.html

UTI MF to launch exchange traded gold fund
http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=14122588

Richard Daughty ..the angriest guy in economics
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty011806.html

HISTORY POINTS TO HIGHER RATES!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/saxena011706.html

Buffett Issues Warning Over Trade Deficit
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060118/warren_buffett.html?.v=3

Mauldin: "Outside the box".
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin011706.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Gain Over 2%
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1137706382.php

CURRENT: USD 89.3 EURO 1.208 GOLD 555.8 SILVER 9.1 OIL 67.50

Gold futures end with a $15 gain
Oil-price uncertainty and terror threat add support
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=google&dist=morenews&guid=%7B7E9EF40A%2D53FA%2D4FE5%2DB6A6%2DDEB3107BC4 DE%7D

The Daily Pfennig 1/19/06: Here We Go Again!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=496

ENERGIES
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye011906.html

Wall Street Spin Doctors at Work
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1137693368.php

US: 43% of first-time home buyers put no money down
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-01-17-real-estate-usat_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold & Silver Fall From New 25 and 18 Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1137793884.php

U.S. Stocks Head for Biggest Loss in 2 Years; GE Shares Slide
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aecricFGMJ9U&refer=home

CURRENT: USD 88.78 (-.48) EURO 1.214 GOLD 553.2 SILVERR 8.86 OIL 68.48 (+1.29)

The COT Gold report: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1137789301.php
The COT Silver Report: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1137789383.php

CASEY: What Will Happen to Gold Shares in a Crashing U.S. Stock Market?
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1137782781.php

GATA DVD Exposes Gold Market Manipulation
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1137779432.php

P. van Eeden: Valuing an exploration company
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=141

C Butler: The Daily Pfennig 1/20/06: China Points A Finger...
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=498

Retire With Gold By David Vaughn
http://www.kitco.com/ind/vaughn/jan192006.html

[stolwyk]

Financial Sense Newshour:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

The Irony of Complacency - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

GERBINO: Important Guidance For Gold Stock Investors
http://news.goldseek.com/KennethGerbino/1137945780.php

International Forecaster January, 2005 (#2) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1137945779.php

Waltzek: GOLD AND SILVER REVIEW
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/waltzek012006.html

Stock Crash Alert - Christopher Laird
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird012006.html

__________________________________________________

There is some confusion about rate hikes. While it looks that the US economy is slowing, some FED Governors maintain we need more rate hikes instead of the expected one more.

Those comments coming on top of some lower results, did'nt go down well at all in the markets.

The FED is in a vice here: Keep extending rate hikes and drive the DOW and the economy down. (There is too much debt already) or stop raising rates and drive the dollar down.

Foreigners who are already lending big to the US, then want to minimize risks and then need higher interest rates again.

The Game is up; it is the heavy debt load and negative savings as well as lower incomes for the wage and salary worker over some time which will make any decision difficult.

As to the debt load, some think it can be inflated away over a number of years and Bernanke is already doing that to the tune of some 9% per year. If he keeps that going then price inflation will take over assisting Gold as well.

There are some painful alternatives but the resulting damage is considered to be too great for a country which has consumption as the main driving force, has been mismanaged for a number of years and now with the Election coming up next year is not going to act save from applying band-aids.

Still, much debt needs to be inflated away somehow in these conditions.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Climb Higher
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1138078860.php

CURRENT: USD 87.90 Euro 1.228 Gold 556.6 Silver 8.98 Oil 67.72

Dollar Drops as ECB Signals Higher Rates, Poole Less Concerned
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aBlnO_RDStCA&refer=top_world_news

The Daily Pfennig 1/23/06: A Double Whammy for the Dollar!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=503
Comment: Could become a triple whammy, once tjhe Iranian Bourse starts up.

Gold & Silver At Risk?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge012306.html

I, GREENSPAN by Bill Bonner
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/daily/2006/0120.html

NYC mayor: housing market "dramatically" slowing
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=realEstateRestaurantsHotels&storyID=nN20342890

PERCENTAGES VERSUS MULTIPLES by Mike Hoy
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0120b.html

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 88.1 EURO 1.227 GOLD 557.8 SILVER 9.20 OIL 66.80

Shine On – Part II: SEC Proposes Rules for Silver ETF Trading
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=2078

Games Without Frontiers - Part II: Petro Warfare Begins
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=2067

Gold & Silver: China:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2006/01/24/237597/Gold_rush_set_to_continue.htm

Big imbalances risk market disruption - Bank's Lomax
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-01-24T101728Z_01_LAC001898_RTRUKOC_0_UK-ECONOMY-BRITAIN-BOE.xml

The Daily Pfennig 1/24/06: Hollow Cries
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=506

Clive Maund: Gold and Silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund012506.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Make New 25 and 18 Year Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1138251660.php

CURRENT: USD 88.12 Euro 1.225 Gold 561.9 Silver 9.49 Oil 65.96

Global: Between the Lines - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060123-mon.html

Hedge funds expect more defaults
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060125/bs_ft/fto012520060419524635;_ylt=AvuaDqx9l.z5HvRXQltqEHn 2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

China: A Bull in the Energy Shop
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20060124/bs_bw/nf200601238985db039;_ylt=AteDJM2AMS1HbsXTcdYgI5S1v 0gC;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

MarketWatch: Greenspan to become Washington consultant: report
No details as yet available.

Beijing bans trading after getting tarnished by copper
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17938291%255E36375,00.html

PROFIT FROM GOLD STOCKS - HOW? by David N. Vaughn
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vaughn/2006/0125.html

Morgan: Bullish on Silver
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/jan252006.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Silver Ends the Week at a New 18 Year High
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1138424460.php

CURRENT: USD 89.19 EURO: 1.21 GOLD 557.9 SILVER 9.54 OIL 67.76

Please note that the Far East has a Lunar Holiday and together with Sat/Sunday, this period will be 4 days. Some selling of gold has occurred because traders were unwilling to hold onto Gold duting this holiday.

COT Gold Report: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1138393973.php
COT Silver Report: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1138394045.php

The Hollow Ring of Davos- Stephen Roach (from Davos)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

The Greenspan Legacy By Adam Hamilton
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/jan272006.html

Gold's Rise is no Conundrum By Peter Schiff
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/jan272006.html

Iraq's oil industry a long way from recovery
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-01-26T143326Z_01_KAR333735_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENERGY-IRAQ.xml

Silver ETF Packs Punch - Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1138395558.php

Silver logs biggest weekly gain among metals
Gold falls on day; copper, platinum hit new highs
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Metals+Stocks&siteid=mktw&dist=

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – New Highs for Everything Precious
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1138683720.php

CURRENT: USD 89.15 EURO 1.2094 GOLD 568.0 (Did hit 570) SILVER 9.86 Oil 68.20

The Handover Fallacy - Stephen Roach (New York
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Financial sense Newshour
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

MONEY SUPPLY, THE DOLLAR AND SILVER by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/0129.html

Money supply Charts:
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/fed/moneysupply.htm

FED WATCH:
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/fed/fedwatch.htm

FIELD REPORT: PERTH, AUSTRALIA by Greg Silberman
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0129b.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Take Another Rollercoaster Ride
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1138830012.php

CURRENT: USD 89.37 Euro 1.2057 Gold 569.35 Silver 9.75 Oil 66.38

SilverSeek.com 2006 Silver Investment Conference - February 15!

The Remarkable W.D. Gann
Article by John L. Gann Jr., grandson of W.D. Gann
http://www.webtrading.com/gannarticle2.htm

Golds desperately seeking ounces
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/878613.htm

Hard to Be Too Gloomy - Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1138809840.php

A Slam Dunk? By: Theodore Butler
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1138768269.php

Willie: Negative Q4 Real GDP, Really
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1138809720.php

Money supply:
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/fed/moneysupply.htm

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – How Far for the Fed?
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1139159471.php

CURRENT: USD 89.74 EURO 1.202 GOLD 567.2 SILVER 9.7 OIL 65.37

COT GOLD: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1138999200.php
COT Silver: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1138998862.php

GoldSeek.com Radio (radio.goldseek.com): David Morgan, Silver Investor
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1139161984.php

Chapman: The Disappearing Savings?
http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1139155211.php

FSN:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
(Frank Barbera and Michael Bolser may be worth listening to)

MONEYIZATION, PART 20 - Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2006/0202.html

The Daily Pfennig 2/3/06: A Jobs Jamboree Friday!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=527

Special Alert: Caution Light Ahead By Peter Grandich
http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/jan312006.html

Vancouver confirms a bull market
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=142

[stolwyk]

CURRENT: USD 89.64 EURO 1.202 GOLD 569.6 SILVER 9.80 OIL 66.26

IMPORTANT:
Paul Mylchreest: Remonetisation of gold: Start hoarding.
http://www.golddrivers.com/Premium/Gold_31Jan06.pdf

Passing Ships in the Night - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Gold rally not a bubble, could go on up
Fri Feb 3, 2006 1:30 AM ET
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-02-03T063030Z_01_L0252735_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-GOLD.xml

Gold Bulls See Further Sharp Gains On USD Weakness
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060203/15/3yfmt.html

SA gold output to fall further - report
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/breaking/?show=80421

THE GOLD FORECASTER by Julian D.W. Phillips
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0205.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Stock, Bonds, & Metals All Close Down
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1139349482.php

CURRENT: USD 90.13 Euro 1.198 GOLD 549.6 (Low 546.2) SILVER 9.32 OIL 63.01

Gold Falls Most Since '04 as Oil's Drop Eases Inflation Concern
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aWq.Z1lOIkgE&refer=news_index


INFLATION DOES NOT AVERT DEFLATION by C Laird
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0206.html

Inelastic Gold Supply by Willie
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1139335514.php

Psychology of a Falling Dollar - Axel Merk
http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1139328330.php

The Daily Pfennig 2/7/06: Japanese Yen Rebounds!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=535

DEBT MARKETS DEMYSTIFIED-Kirby
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Gain Over 2%
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1139521265.php

Current: USD 90.20 Euro 1.198 Gold 563.5 SILVER 9.61 Oil 62.98

Gold Gains as Biggest Drop in Eight Years Spurs Jewelry Buying
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=al2SQI3KCQDo&refer=canada

China planning to set up gold fund
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-02/10/content_4160928.htm

TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS The New World Order by Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gnazzo/2006/0209.html

Big deficit looms behind revival of 30-yr bond
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-02-08T211014Z_01_N08352177_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-DEFICITS-30YR.xml

US: Home inventories rise sharply in many major markets
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06039/652164.stm
_______________________________________

Friday February 10, 2006, 6:12 am

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Legislation was introduced in the US Senate to repeal permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status for China, citing its alleged unfair trade practices.

The US Congress granted China the PNTR status in 2000, which paved the way for the most populous nation to enter the World Trade Organization and for US businesses to deal more seamlessly with Beijing.

But Senators Byron Dorgan and Lindsey Graham, authors of the legislation representing both sides of the aisle, said the status should be rescinded in retaliation for China's unfair trade practices which they said were responsible for the widening US trade deficit.

They cited practices including piracy, currency manipulation, violation of its own labor laws, and barriers to prevent US products from entering the Chinese market.

"There's nothing normal or fair about any of these methods," Dorgan, the Democratic Senator from North Dakota, told a new conference with Graham, a South Carolina legislator from President George W. Bush's Republican party.

Graham is also behind another bipartisan legislation that would force China to revalue its currency or face higher tariffs on Chinese imports.

The legislation, to impose a 27.5 percent tariff across the board on Chinese imports, gathered good support in Congress.

After months of intense US pressure, China freed the yuan from an 11-year-old peg to the US dollar in July last year, revaluing it by 2.1 percent and putting it in a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The yuan was also allowed to move 0.3 percent either way on any given day.

But legislators and businesses in the United States say the yuan remains undervalued and continues to sink the country's trade balance deeper into the red.

The US deficit is expected to pass the key 200 billion dollar mark when 2005 figures are released Friday, roughly 40 billion dollars more than the previous year, Dorgan and Graham said Thursday".

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold & Silver Fall Further From Recent Highs
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1139806800.php

CURRENT: USD 90.47 EURO 1.2055 GOLD 548.3 SILVER 9.33 Oil 61.84 (-0.78)

COT GOLD: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1139604000.php
COT SILVER: http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1139603665.php

Marc Faber: Correction Time Is Here
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/faber021006.html

The New American Federal Reserve Token (AFRT)
http://news.goldseek.com/bullnotbull/1139760180.php

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Second Wave Of Fund Liquidation
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4638010818030272576

A. Hamilton: Gold ETF Impact
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton021006.html

Tom Dyson: All Bull Markets Have Horns
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/dyson021206.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Take Another Rollercoaster Ride
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1139866437.php

CURRENT: USD 90.43 EURO 1.19 GOLD 540.6 SILVER 9.17 OIL 61.08

Excerpts from GLOBAL WATCH: THE GOLD FORECASTER
by Julian D.W. Phillips
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0213.html

Trade Deficits and Asset Bubbles - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Clive Maund: http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/feb132006.html

The Daily Pfennig 2/13/06: Has the Fed Gone Too Far?
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=544

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FORCES LOOMING IN THE HORIZON by Sol Palha
Tactical Investor
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/2006/0212.html

New, Improved Confusion on Gold & Silver
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sanders/sanders021306.html

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Give Up Most of Yesterday's Gains
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1140039811.php

CURRENT: USD 90.65 EURO 1.188 GOLD 539.9 SILVER 9.21 OIL 57.90

U.S. Considers Branding China as Currency Manipulator
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aB8jX7beo1zE&refer=top_world_news

More Fed rate hikes 'may' be needed
Bernanke sticks close to script in Capitol Hill testimony
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aB8jX7beo1zE&refer=top_world_news

What Fuel Bills? U.S. Consumers Still Spending
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/15/business/15retail.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

All that glitters is gold... & silver, platinum, copper, etc.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden021506.html

Why your blood seems frozen in your veins by Richard Daughty
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty021506.html

Why US Fed Hikes, Unspoken- by Willie
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1140021690.php

[stolwyk]

WHERE IS GOLD GOING?

There are a number of items overlooked when discussing retracements and pricings.

Most had expected a heavier retrace as the Japanese had taken gold from the table expecting higher interest rates.

Twice in a row it was there where the rot started abetted by the FED's front: JP Morgan and some major Japanese banks who were piling on the derivatives.

Then there is much emphasis on oil and rightly so, but GOLD does'nt only listen to the Oil price but also to an ever increasing set of other negatives not directly relative to oil, eg the Iranian uranium question, the Palestinian and other Geopolitical problems.

Like a Giant Squid, it has a number of massive tentacles, but what is more impressive, the number of tentacles is increasing with time: The Nigerian oil sabotage problem has suddenly moved to centre stage and the US gets some of the oil from there. If there is to be a gap there, will the Chinese step in?

And they won't go away. The Afghan case has been deteriorating over time. The Talibans have moved northwards from the South and the situation is ugly. The US is cunning withdrawing their troops from there and leaving a mess to the Euro troops.

The production of drugs is as strong as it ever has been. So, eradication of this culture has failed. Suicide bombers are increasing.

So, what will be the next new occurrence anywhere on the Globe designed to increase the price of GOLD? I can tell you this, there definitely will be one.

The influence of one major ETF (GLD) cannot be ignored. It is now sitting on close to 400 tonnes of GOLD. This reduces supply and can mean the difference between a larger or smaller retracement of the GOLD price.

Apparently, retail investors find it convenient to park their GOLD there. So, this is a vital outlet for people who otherwise would'nt be buying GOLD.

A researcher has shown that this ETF's GOLD was still increasing even during the retracements; people are taking a long term view on investing.

Give it another year and what will the tonnage be then? Another 400-500 tonnes? And the current world demand is already higher than the world supply even without the investment by this ETF.

Provided ETF's hold real gold they could become a menace to the US FED. And there are more ETF's to come yet.

And of course, if a SILVER ETF is approved, then the silver stock prices could rise to high heaven, taking GOLD with them.

Now, this proposed ETF ought to be very successful as they would be buying cheaper silver at first, so in time, one ought to see a second one and silver mania will get worse.



Summary: Time is with GOLD as the overall world situation is deteriorating; the situation with some items is getting worse or additional new problems spring up.

Hence GOLD is like a Giant Squid with many tentacles, one of these symbolises the US Trade Deficit, another the Current Deficit, a third the DEBT situation, then resource wars, the effects from outsourcing etc.

This Squid could have more than a dozen tentacles which can be used to strangle the US or any other country.

And it is growing more tentacles all the time, the latest one is called: Nigeria.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

Current GOLD price: $551.6 (A high of $554.1)

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up - Gold & Silver Find Slight Gains on the Week
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1140238800.php

REAL SILVER HIGHS - Hamilton
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton021706.html

Bernanke Fallacy- A. Merk
http://news.goldseek.com/MerkInvestments/1140198707.php

ROACH: Seasonally Mal-Adjusted
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Ready To Jump Back In Gold by Peter Grandich
The Grandich Letter, Grandich Publications, LLC
http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1140192150.php

[GB]

Grandich is too soon here imo

[trader10]

http://www.energyreview.net/storyview.asp?storyid=53888§ionsource=s0

New Zealand Petroleum Conference, March 5-8.


Monday, February 20, 2006

CONCERN over depleting petroleum stocks worldwide and the solutions New Zealand may offer will be a key theme when some of the world's leading experts in oil and gas exploration gather for the New Zealand Petroleum Conference at Auckland's Skycity Convention Centre from March 5-8.


Organisers expect a record number of delegates, says Crown Minerals petroleum investment manager Mark Aliprantis.

The last conference, held in Auckland two years ago, attracted over 450 delegates and attendance at this year's event looked to top the 500 level. Pre-conference technical workshops also had record registrations, Aliprantis said.

Keynote speakers will include Minister of Energy David Parker, Associate Minister of Energy, Harry Duynhoven, and author and adviser to the US Government, Matt Simmons, in his first speaking engagement in Australasia.

Shell Petroleum Mining EP technical vice-president Gaudie Banister, from Singapore, and US Ambassador to New Zealand, William P McCormick, will also address the conference.

Hosted by the Ministry of Economic Development, the biennial conference is intended to spark debate among explorers, investors, and the government about the potential New Zealand offers and the action needed to realise that potential.

http://www.energyreview.net/storyview.asp?storyid=53888§ionsource=s0


T10 :)

[stolwyk]

Gold ETFs Changing Market Dynamics
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=17187

Reports: China, Iran Near Oil Field Deal
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060217/ap_on_bi_ge/china_iran_oil;_ylt=AlAEcgneeoanUr2HQ7850x6yBhIF;_ ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA


Fashion sets off a new gold rush
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-2046923,00.html

[stolwyk]

MONETIZING OF DEBT AND OILING MARKETS.

There have been references to the opening of the Iranian Bourse on March 20 with oil being priced in Euros.

In the past, as oil prices increased, the demand for US dollars increased as well hence more were "printed".

If buyers of oil need to buy Euros to pay for oil then not only will this support the Euro but there will be less demand for dollars. That would affect the USD value.

If the demand for Euros became strong enough then surplus dollars would return to the US, which again would be bad for the USD.

There is however another far more feared spectre of Japanese rising interest rates. Sofar these were virtually zero and the Japanese could get more than 4% on US Bond rates.

The FED obliged the foreigners by keeping up the value of the USD so as to induce the Japanese and other foreigners to finance the US Current Account which is running at about US$750 Bill./year.

If the Japanese withdrew only some of these funds or did not increase these, then any shortfall in the financing of this deficit has to come from other sources.

If this is difficult because overseas Central Banks won't contribute more or reduce their contribution as well or the Chinese or any other source of funding was not increasing or slowly drying up then the FED is likely to start monetizing this debt.

Not publishing the M3 money supply -which includes the foreign Central Banks' deposits- would be unheard of by Europe who attach great importance to this.

They would come to the conclusion and rightly so that the US financial status has declined further and with it, its prestige which in other endeavours is at a very low ebb anyway.

One can assume that the FED is ready to create a lot of dollars but does'nt want anyone to know about.

It does'nt say much for the willingness of the US public and Wall Street for accepting this perverse financial proposal of omitting M3.
________________________________________________

I should add that the FED is already expanding currency at the rate of 8% which is some 7% higher than true GDP. That is done for a variety of reasons, one being to cheapen existing debt over time.

I believe that at this stage debt increases faster than can be inflated away.

This monetary inflation includes the increase of all credit.
Why create more monetary inflation while at the same time raising interest rates?

One would come to the conclusion that rising interest rates protect the USD up to a certain level and hence protect foreign lenders against erosion of capital.

It will hit US homeowners with adjustable borrowing rates.

One can't avoid price inflation once monetary inflation takes place at such high levels even if the CPI is severely falsified to show there is little inflation. (And so are the GDP, unemployment levels and other statistical data).

The FED has taken the "Alice in wonderland" approach trying to get out of the mire. Their consumption rate is about 72% of GDP, their manufacturing capacity is poor and manufactured exports are about 8% (Germany: 30-35%).

And they haven't got the leaders who are capable to take some hard measures. The Representatives are more worried about staying in power and corruption is normal.

It is times like these when a President of great calibre is needed who is intelligent and mature enough to gauge the national and international rapid developments.

Meanwhile, price inflation is rising and the investor either has a choice of false US economic information or in the case of M3, none.

I believe that given time, the Gold price will take revenge.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[trader10]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aQveD_5.mWoE&refer=uk#

Bloomberg - 1 hour ago


Gold Trades Near Two-Week High as Dollar Falls Against Euro

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in Asia traded near a two-week high as the dollar fell against the euro, making bullion more appealing to investors as an alternative investment.

The euro rose for a second day against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal interest rates are heading higher as inflation in the 12-nation region remains above the bank's 2 percent target.

``Inflationary concerns are still there,'' Darren Heathcote, head of trading at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd., said by telephone in Sydney. ``It's looking to be a positive pitch for gold.''

Gold for immediate delivery was at $561.24 an ounce, down 30 cents, or 0.1 percent, at 2:33 p.m. in Tokyo. Prices rose 1.4 percent yesterday to $561.55, the highest since Feb. 9.

The euro rose to $1.1942 against the dollar at 2:17 p.m. in Tokyo, from $1.1921 in New York yesterday, when it gained 0.6 percent, the most since Jan. 23.

Gold futures for April delivery were at $563.50 an ounce, down 40 cents, at 2:36 p.m. Tokyo time in after-hours electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold for December delivery rose 8 yen, or 0.4 percent, to 2,109 yen a gram as of 2:40 p.m. on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

In India, the world's biggest consumer, gold prices for April delivery fell 8 rupees, or 0.1 percent, to 8,105 rupees per 10 grams, or 25,206 rupees ($568) an ounce, at 11:20 a.m. on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. in Mumbai.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aQveD_5.mWoE&refer=uk#


Tonight should be interesting......

T10 [8D]

[trader10]

Gold demand, prices seen easing in '06 - CPM Group
Wed Mar 1, 2006 11:09 AM GMT



By Zach Howard

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment demand for gold in 2006 is likely to decrease from last year's strong levels, as the rally of the last five years probably will slow after the first quarter, commodities consultant CPM Group said Tuesday.

CPM's managing director said in a presentation of its 2006 Gold Yearbook that the metal's bull run looks set for a pause and demand should taper off later this year. Prices consequently are likely to pull back later this year and into next, CPM's Jeffrey Christian said.

New York-based CPM's official 2006 gold average price forecast is $502.34, which is more than 12 percent higher than the 2005 average of $446.42.

"We would not be surprised to see gold average about $460 next year," said Christian in a briefing with reporters and analysts in Manhattan.

CPM's 2006 Gold Yearbook report predicted that investors would boost their gold holdings by another 45.2 million ounces this year, after adding 194.5 million ounces to portfolios in the bull market from 2001 through 2005.

That investment demand would be down 3.2 percent from 2005's total investment demand of 46.7 million ounces, the report said.

"This wave of investment demand has been the single most important reason why gold prices have risen over the past five years," said CPM.

Benchmark gold futures traded in New York reached a 25-year peak early this month of $579.50 an ounce. At the same time, bullion scaled a similar quarter-century peak of $574.60.

April futures were quoted at $562.60 by midmorning.

Prices have more than doubled from their lows near $253 in the late 1990s, lifted by concerns over high energy costs, tensions in the Middle East, instability in the U.S. dollar, and by more diversification into commodities by investors.

By early 2006, private investors owned more gold than the world's governments, probably for the first time ever, CPM noted in the report.

But rising gold prices have sparked more mining exploration and development, CPM added. It projected mine production this year would rise 6.1 percent to 66.8 million ounces, with more gains expected in 2007.

"It would take a drop in gold prices to levels below $350 to turn off these exploration projects," the report said.

The trend of sharply higher gold prices has hurt physical demand for the metal from some quarters since the first part of 2005, said CPM.

The firm forecast fabrication demand for gold would fall 1.6 percent this year to 81.3 million ounces, with jewelry demand slipping 2 percent to 71.6 million ounces.

Net central bank sales of gold worldwide should fall to 13 million ounces this year, down 36 percent from 20.3 million ounces in 2005, CPM projected.

Total gold supply was expected to rise 4.1 percent to 113.5 million ounces in 2006.

http://za.today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-03-01T090946Z_01_ALL132937_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-MINERALS-GOLD-CPM-OUTLOOK-20060301.XML

[stolwyk]

PRICE PREDICTIONS, WILL THESE COME TRUE?

There are frequently rapid negative predictions being made in the hope that should these fail, there is nobody who can remember the original posts.

And of course, the further out the prediction, the quicker one forgets.

Often a prediction is based on current supply and demand trends, any fiscal problems-the increase in the money supply is one, another are the deficits- and Geopolitical problems, are completely forgotten.

Not the slightest mention of a most likely fierce price increase of oil or increased terrorism.

There has been some scarce literature about forecasting from Bullion Banks. These Banks get some of their Gold from Central Banks and as the latter only likes Fiat money, you will often find that Bullion Banks give low Gold Price predictions.

This way, they keep in with the Central Banks. (Low Gold prices often denote low inflation, hence for fiat money to be successful, one needs low Gold prices or one should strive to keep these low).

Obviously, don't ask any FED Governor for a prediction either.

So, there is a fair amount of politics involved in some forecasting.

I don't take too much notice of it and am merely watching the deterioration in the economic outlook, no matter, how well the FED falsifies and portrays it, aided and abetted by Wall Street who has greatly benefitted from the FED's practices.

Gerry

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Canadian Gold prices of good stocks have been on the move up and latest price rises are looking good; eg PJO hit an all-time high of CAN$8.74 (+4.1%).

Goldcorp, a world leader, unhedged, again is performing nicely, now US$30.61. My class C warrants hit a record of US$6.01

Where some people get confused-they should know better and often they do-is about US Gold Indices. These often tend to include major stocks which are heavily hedged. Hence, the readings don't conform to the reality: stockpickers making significant profits by keeping away from Indices.

And these profits are being made on the basis of progress by the company concerned or because it is undervalued.

Once above US$600, Indices play a safer role because by then a lot of Investors wil be in Gold and will pick Indices because they are not able to or are not willing to pick stocks themselves.

There is a lot of politics in discussing Gold prices and as everywhere, professional downrampers or shorters who want to see lower prices are active, aided and abetted by the FED.

Manipulated reports are being written; fortunately, we have very good access to Fundamentals most of the time.

In a minor way, some people who have made losses or sold too early become afflicted by by it and want to punish Gold by trying to talk it down.

Others make a bad mistake by relying on TA only; all fundamentals are completely forgotten.

Some professional letter writers who like to call "tops" and have forecasted a decline in share prices in the last 3 months are being called by their clients who were advised to sell their shares because "They ought to get in cheaper later on".

Now these people are waiting for an opporunity to do just that; they are waiting--waiting--waiting.

These influential letter writers are particularly pushing lower Gold prices to make their prediction come true; after all, their image would suffer if prices did'nt come down.

I believe once March is behind us, manufacturing demand will increase again and this important dimension ought to support the price of Gold in addition to deteriorating conditions.

Meanwhile we have the Iranian Oil Bourse opening while talk about the coming silver ETF ought to keep the interest in this metal going, I hope. More talk about a lower USD as well.

Gold is suddenly moving up, now hit $566.7. Silver just hit $10.10

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities

GOLD: 568.4 (Has been 570.1) Silver: 10.17

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Silver Ends the Week at a New 22 Year High
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1141422263.php

CURRENT: USD89.65 Euro:1.204 GOLD565.1 SLVER10.20 OIL63.71

Schiff: Hi-Ho Silver; Gold and Mining Shares to Follow
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1141410032.php

Chapman: Rising Interest Rates, Rising Geopolitical Concerns – Double Jeopardy?
http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1141418820.php

Mogambo: He Wants Inflation, Lots of Inflation
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/mar012006.html

Willie: Mosques, Civil War, Oil& Gold
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/mar022006.html

Roach: Globalization's New Underclass
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

[GB]

On that basis Gerry when do plan to sell- you have to know when to sell before you buy -the money is made at the buy- i knew when to sell before i bought gold at $265-oh yes i am still holding on to my physical very tightly - but i have never heard anyone on this forum who claims to be a goldbug say what fundamental conditions must prevail for them to sell- there were plenty who held on to $875 and never sold -when do you plan to sell Gerry ?
This is in part a rhetorical question - i know what conditons must prevail for me to sell - i am looking for 1 key statistic-what are yours? just give me 1 !! seeing as per your post t/a cannot predict -my post re; overbought indicators can be thrown out in a raging bull will give you some indication as too my thinking as per the gold bull- so Gerry you must have at least 1 solid fundamental indicator to strike to signal a sell for you if not you will never know when to sell-
Remember if we dont form our own thoughts we are always following everyone else- Even Jim Sinclair whom i hold in the highest degree wont tell you untill after he has sold - the same happened in 1980 Sinclair sold at the top- and you could say him being the BIGGEST seller of gold contracts that day made a self fufilling prophecy- what did he know that no -one has posted on this forum to this day that is the answer i am awaiting from you Gerry-

[stolwyk]

THE MARC FABER TRANSCRIPT OF INTERVIEW
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2006/0225faber.html

WORLD INTEREST RATES RISING
by Christopher Laird-PrudentSquirrel.com
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0303.html

FSN Broadcast: http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Clive Maund: Gold Market Update
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund030406.html

J Rubino: Best Quotes of February 2006
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rubino030106.html

RICHARD RUSSELL ON GOLD, SILVER & US$
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/russell030106.html

[stolwyk]

GB,

I write this stuff for others. I don't think I have ever alluded to any tops for the POG.


Gerry

[GB]

Jolly jolly i cant make it too easy for you- lol - you are close - but no cigar - think of history -when you get a bit closer i will tell you if you are warm

[Mick100]

How about the Richard Russell theory

When the gold price matches the value of the DOW 1;1 - Get out of gold

Then there's the other argument that we go back onto an electronic gold standard - then your gold will officially be money - so why sell your real money in exchange for worthless paper money

I'm dissapointed with you GB
I thought that you were a hard core bug
,

[GB]

heh heh i am mick - i am just trying to make money -if i can buy the shares at a lower price i will- dow 1-1 gold- would be a pretty good indicator- yes - and i agree about paper v gold - it could be that i never sell my phys !! maybe i pass it on to others

ps sorry for the attack Gerry- i must of had a bad hair day- keep up the great work

[GB]

its happening now- lower- to $495

[stolwyk]

GOLD 545.60

Mogambo: E-ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/102/4055/2006-03-09.asp?wid=102&nid=4055

[stolwyk]

GOLD 545.60

Marc Faber: Much Noise in the US - But, Little Action
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/faber/2006/0308.html

MOGAMBO:
http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/102/4055/2006-03-09.asp?wid=102&nid=4055

EARTH GEOPHYSICS & CRUDE OIL by Jim Willie CB
March 7, 2006
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2006/0307.html

U.S. Economy: Trade Deficit Widens to a Record
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aTEZ6LMlpdAI&refer=home

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Gold & Silver Fall But Miners Gain
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1142026999.php

USD 90.47; Gold: 540.45; Silver 9.93; oil 59.95

THE GOLD REPORT:
RUSSELL: Plain Talk: Primary Bear Market May be Returning
http://www.theaureport.com/cs/user/print/na/244?x-t=pub.view&id=101256

More Horrifying Foreign Investment Numbers from the Latest Fed Flow-of-Funds Data
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Gillespie/mar102006.html

"The Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World’s Financial Experts - Part 1”
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Baker/mar082006.html

Schiff: Monetary Hara-Kiri
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/mar102006.html

The Daily Pfennig 3/10/06: The Deficit Just Keeps Rising...
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=595

[stolwyk]

NeoCon allies desert Bush over Iraq
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article350092.ece

30 US Reps for Bush Impeachment Inquiry
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060311&articleId=2085

FSN: http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Saxena: TANGIBLE WEALTH
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/saxena031006.html

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

11 DEC,11 am: DUBAI-US PORTS AGREEMENT REVERSAL: A PROPER DISASTER.
Here is parochial grandstanding at its best while the US is in election mode.

I saw one Republican declaring that "everything is back to normal now, no harm was done".

The Democrats were no different either.

They are suggesting that security run by Dubai would be worse than when the ports were run by a US company. But added that now the ports are back in US hands, security needed to be stepped up.

So, security could have been lax before, after all. I am not sure how the original deal was reversed; don't be surprised if the US firm buying back the operations "had a nice helping hand", considering it was done in a flash.

Meanwhile the takeover of P&O-who have port operations in the UK-by Dubai, is proceeding. Apparently the security issue is not a problem there:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4765262.stm

Of course, nobody likes to lose face or being treated as a second class being when the original US deal was reversed in that fashion.
Reaction from Dubai was swift: Latest: US, UAE postpone free-trade talks amid ports row:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-03-11T000747Z_01_N10282244_RTRUKOC_0_UK-TRADE-UAE-USA.xml&archived=False

So, the US has upset an ally in the Mid East. Rest assured that this antagonism will spread when the US can least afford it. Out goes "free trade".

An appalling situation, really and one may well expect less cooperation from some allies in the future.

Is it good for Gold?

Yes, IMHO.
Another new positive to add to all the others supporting Gold.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[trader10]

http://www.energyreview.net

Oil, money and politics will make for an interesting week


Monday, March 13, 2006


THE House, or the market, that's the viewing choice for observers of the oil industry in the week ahead. Slugcatcher's advice on how to handle this excess of choice is to keep one eye on each because the House promises fireworks, while the market promises a flood! The House in question, for anyone not up to speed with events in the US is the Big House itself, Congress.



Capitol Hill, Washington DC

It's there that the heavies of American oil will be dragged in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee to discuss interesting subjects such as reforms to US anti-monopoly (they call it anti-trust) laws, and a radical plan to cut use petrol prices (which they call gasoline).

Whatever names are given the central objective is to put Big Oil on trial, with the charge being "ripping off US consumers".

The Slug reckons the event will be interesting though he suspects the jury (sorry, the Judiciary Committee) has already placed an order for a noose, and is now looking for a tall tree to hang the guilty (sorry, the witnesses).

More about The House later because as that sideshow gets underway with appearances from the new chief executive of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson, and Shell Oil president, John Hofmeister, there is something even more interesting happening on the oil market that might actually deliver what Congress wants – lower petrol prices.

As The Slug was reading the witness list for the Senate hearing, his eye caught this little gem from the oil market. Stockpiles of crude in the US have climbed to their highest level in seven years, including a gain of 6.8 million barrels last week alone.

Close followers of The Slug's rambles through the energy market will remember that it is only three weeks since a big hint was dropped here that oil prices might have peaked. The reasoning then was a forecast of lower prices from the outgoing ExxonMobil boss, Lee Raymond, and the fact that oil companies were walking away from high-cost, high-risk oil/gas projects because they could read the writing on the wall.

Late last week that writing was along the lines of "$US59 a barrel and heading south". Petrol futures had dropped to $US1.69 a gallon, and some of the smart boys on Wall Street were tipping a fall in the barrel price for oil of up to $US4 this week.

Compounding this view that the best of the oil price curve might be over was news from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it would hold production at 28 million barrels a day.

Kuwait's oil boss, Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al Sabah, took a decidedly western-friendly line when he said the aim was to drive the price below $US60 a barrel, and keep it there because it was hurting global growth.

Meanwhile, as these real life events are taking place the heavies of US oil will have their day in front of the judiciary committee, fielding questions about whether there should be a "super tax" on windfall oil profits, and whether there should be a formal Trade Commission inquiry into whether any of the oil companies have artificially limited petrol production to force prices higher.

The Slug thinks the inquiry should make for good theatre because the law makers will be playing their "friend of the voter" card as strongly as they can, while the oil companies will be saying, "take a look at the price of gas, it's falling".

In a bizarre way, the political process and the market process have arrived at the same point at roughly the same time – which might even give the genuine nut cases out there even more fuel for their global conspiracy theories.

Meanwhile, The Slug says settle down folks, this looks like being a fun week – but not necessarily for investors in oil stocks who might have a rocky ride if the oil price really does drop $US4, or more.

http://www.energyreview.net

T10 ;)

[stolwyk]

Current account deficit increased by 21.3 % and this deficit is now running at about $850 mill + for 2006.

Retail sales down by 1.3% in Febr.

USD down to 89.77 and oil up to 62.1

GOLD now 551.0 and Silver increased twice as fast to 10.21

USD down to 89.6 and oil up to 62.86

COMMENT:
It is not only the economic data which are in a mess of course.

The relationship with USA 's friends deteriorated with the Senate and the House of Representatives, both worried about their own future, making a bad decision re the operation of the US ports to be taken over by Dubai.

Strange that Dubai is allowed to run the UK ports and that the USA fleet has been serviced by UAE for many years.

But then, the USA is virtually leaderless with the far religious right supporting Bush, a lame duck from now on.

In these conditions, the media can be made to feel paranoid by security which Bush would use to let his authority be known.

The M3 money supply registers the deposits with the FED by the various Central Banks from many countries, including the UAE and other Middle East.

So, because the FED won't let the M3 data be known from now on, we won't know, how much money will be withdrawn by these countries as a silent protest. These countries would use say the Euro as one currency instead while the demand for gold also increases.

This will affect the USD.
There is now talk of a civil war in Iraq, so this is a complete failure. Bush has allowed radical Islam to spread by hardening their attitude.

The situation in Afghanistan is not that much better either and any improvement will only be temporary.

It is clear that the US knowledge and sensitivity about International affairs is close to zero: the US is like a bull in a china shop.

The Chinese knowing that the US are in an economic vice, are refusing to revalue their currency; this will give the US socalled leaders another reason for adopting protectionist measures.

These and many other negatives must harden Gold prices IMHO

Gerry

[stolwyk]

THE US HAS BEEN CHECKMATED -NO ESCAPE!

1. For starters, the US needs to grow and prevent a depression. The faster the growth, the bigger the deficits. The Current Account deficit runs at about US$800 mill/ year at the moment and is growing. The $8+ trillions Govt debt is just the tip of the iceberg and the wars don't help:
Hodges: Foreign Trade & International Debt Report
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/reserves_a.htm#current

It won't be possible to decrease this debt by taxation and the stage has been reached where increasing monetizing is taking place. At the moment it runs at about 10%:
Marc Faber: Dec 8, 205: Money printing to continue:
http://www.quamnet.com/fcgi-bin/columnists.fpl?par2=5&par3=1&par4=08&par5=12&par6=2005

High debt and excessive monetary inflation is likely to lead to stagflation or hyperinflation. The omission of M3 money supply data by the FED will make progress more difficult to trace:
R Blumen: End game: Hyperinflation: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/blumen/2005/0712.html

2. Any increase in the money supply, apart from that warranted, results in monetary inflation and finally in price inflation. To overcome the worst aspects, data is manipulated so as to reduce the real CPI, increase the GDP, decrease unemployment data and rearrange other.
J Williams: Shadow Govt Statistics. Williams thinks that a stated GDP of 3% is a real GDP of about zero percent. Writers think that an unemployment number of 4% is a real 8%:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn


3. The US economy is lopsided and drastic surgery will result in a depression as the economy will become worse than ever previously encountered. Outsourcing and decreasing incomes must ultimately result in less consumption and more unemployment. Consumption is an abnormally high 71% of GDP. Cut back on consumption and less taxes will come in, apart from other less desirable outcomes: heavy recession or depression. Because Greenspan has deferred bad outcomes by immediately increasing the money supply to overcome sliding into a rececession, any future heavy recession or depression would be worse than normally expected.
Bernanke will be forced to continue this policy which could lead to increased price inflation. The state of the US economy, increasing deficits and excessive increase in the money supply will result in a lower dollar. Lenders to the US will finally want a higher interest rate which in turn will affect the productive sectors, the financial housing industry and consumption. High oil prices will speed up this outcome: a heavy recession or depression is coming closer.

4. Sofar the US and the world has "benefitted" from heavy lending to the US by foreigners currently about US$3 Bill/day and growing. This has resulted in abnormally low interest rates and high price inflation, eg housing. Both China and Japan are the biggest lenders (Japan, because of its low interest rate -about zero%) and have the urge to keep the value of their currencies down and hence better compete. Japan mentions that it will increase its interest rate and Europe is raising rates as well to overcome inflation. Japan did'nt increase its lending to the US last year and there are signs that countries are rearranging their currency reserves by weighting less with dollars. The combined effects are leading to a lower USD and in time to higher interest rates/increasing monetizing.


5. SUMMARY
The US economy will need to be urgently restructured and some writers think this can be done by gradual moves. Unfortunately, exports of goods is only about 8% of GDP while in Germany it is about 30%. Outsourcing will result in less exports. The mismatch of saving habits: China 42%, the US minus 0.8% means that the US will increase Chinese imports, resulting in a higher and growing Trade Deficit. The excessive debt loads and the dependence on foreign capital diminishes the ability to negotiate, although increasing trade protection is being aimed at. Should the US not adhere to the WTO's agreements, then reprisals could follow and the advent of

[tricha]

There u go Jerry, imm interesting stuff.
March 18, 2006

Warren Brussee, Author
The Second Great Depression: Starting 2007, Ending 2020




Warren Brussee spent 33 years at GE as an engineer, plant manager, and engineering manager. He earned his engineering degree at Cleveland State University and attended Kent State towards his EMBA. The author has written two other books, Statistics for SIX SIGMA Made Easy and All About Six Sigma.

Book Info

Email


Select an Audio Format
RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media l mp3

The Second Great Depression is a frightening book. It shows how massive consumer debt will trigger the next depression, starting about the year 2007. Most of the logic used to support this premise is based on the government's own published data.

The exuberance resulting from the overheated stock market of the 90s caused consumers to stop saving and go into debt. Then, the dramatic drop in mortgage rates enabled people to refinance their homes and go even further into debt. People are no longer living on what they can afford; instead they are living the lifestyle they think they deserve, costs be damned!

With interest rates increasing, savings rates near zero, and debt at its maximum; many people will be pushed over their debt limit, having homes foreclosed by the banks or going into bankruptcy. Others will heed the warnings and reduce spending, causing a dramatic slowing of the economy.

Other problems related to the economy, such as balance of payments and deficits, are discussed. But it is consumer debt that will trigger the depression.

Even during a depression, people will need to save for their future. To survive this depression, savings should be in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, and the stock market should be reentered only after it drops 73% from its 2004 level. Included charts show required savings for retirement. These charts give different options as to the number of years before retirement, expected pension, and the amount of existing savings.

In this depression, the United States will be brought to its knees. But not unlike the mythical bird Phoenix that dies in flames and is then reborn out of its own ashes, the United States will also be reborn. However, it will be a poorer and less arrogant country that emerges from its own ashes.

[stolwyk]

Thanks Tricha,

Massive World Speculation Dominos-Christopher Laird
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird032006.html

[trendy]

Isn't he really saying by raising interest rates that he needs to control inflation? The CPI is understated here by a mile....hence reason folks are buying gold as an inflation hedge. The other factor is that the USA is debt up to its eyeballs.....if they just keep on printing money to buy their way out of it is also inflationary.

[Zacca]

Read an interesting article today. The full article is worth reading also:


Shadow Statistics
You’re bombarded with all those statistics that pour out of Washington, the ones that appear to show how unemployment and inflation are low, GDP is expanding, and so on. They may not square with your personal experience, but after all, the government pays a lot of people with fancy degrees a lot of money to carefully track economic statistics. So you figure the numbers must be somewhat accurate.

But now a man has come out of the woodwork who’s done the real math and properly crunched all the numbers. His conclusion: “If the numbers don’t seem real to the man in the street—they probably aren’t.”

Our new friend is Walter J. (John) Williams, with a B.A. in Economics and an M.B.A., both from Dartmouth. He serves as an economic consultant, both to private individuals and Fortune 500 companies.

“For more than 20 years,” he writes on his website (www.shadowstats.com), “I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.”

Has he ever. What Williams does (and few others bother to do) is read the fine print. The government, he notes in a recent interview with Kathryn Welling of the welling@weeden investment newsletter, “is very honest in terms of disclosing what it does. It always footnotes the changes and provides all the fine details.” It is in those details—no surprise—that the devil lies.

“What has happened over time,” Williams says, “is that the methodologies employed to create the widely followed series, such as . . . the GDP, the CPI, the employment numbers, all have had biases built into them that result in overstating economic growth and understating inflation.”

“Real unemployment right now—figured the way that the average person thinks of unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the Great Depression—is running about 12%. Real CPI right now is running at about 8%. And the real GDP is probably in contraction. I venture that if you talked about those numbers now with the average person, they would say that they seem reasonable . . . my work shows that the economic perceptions of non-professionals actually have some real validity; there are in fact reasons for the disconnect between official statistics and what the populace is feeling.”

According to Williams, government realized as long ago as the Kennedy administration that Americans would rather hear good news even if it’s false, and so the manipulation of data began. Unemployment was easy. First they created the “discouraged worker” category (those who’ve given up on finding a job) and counted them separately. Then, under Clinton, they quit counting them at all. Upwards of five million out-of-work people were suddenly no longer “unemployed.”

Consumer Price Index? Since Jimmy Carter, every administration has messed with it. In order to make it look decent, Alan Greenspan and Michael Boskin, former head of the Council of Economic Advisors, came up with the “substitution” concept. Williams: “The whole purpose of the CPI [was] to measure the change in the cost of a fixed basket of goods over time . . . What Boskin and Greenspan argued was, ‘We should allow for substitution because people can buy hamburger instead of steak when steak goes up.’ The problem is that if you allow substitutions, you aren’t measuring a constant standard of living. You’re measuring the cost of survival.”

Who gets squeezed by this? Fixed-income people. “The difference that it makes is significant: if the same CPI were used today as [under Carter], Social Security checks would be 70% higher.”

An adjunct to substitution is “weighting,” adopted under Clinton, whereby the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed from a straightforward arithmetic to a reality-challenged geometric method, a move Williams calls “a pure mathematical game.” The gist of the change is this: now, if something goes up in price, it gets a lower weighting in the CPI, and vice versa. Voilà. Down comes inflation.

[stolwyk]

Silver climbs to 1983 levels; gold dulls

Silver ETF moves closer to approval; copper falls back
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:30 PM ET Mar 21, 2006


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silver futures closed Tuesday at their highest level since late 1983, up 2% for the session, after a proposed silver exchange-traded fund took a step closer to its potential trading launch.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a rule change for a silver exchange-traded fund in registration from Barclays Global Investor that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange.
The ETF, however, has not yet been cleared to launch by regulators.
Christine Hudacko, a spokeswoman for Barclays, said the comment period on the silver ETF's proposed rule change recently closed, and the SEC order says the product can now list on the Amex.
However, she said the S-1 registration statement submitted by BGI has not taken effect yet. "This takes the process one step further, but we're still in the quiet period and no launch date has been determined," Hudacko said.
May silver futures tacked on 20.3 cents to close at $10.565 an ounce, touching a fresh 22-year high of $10.58. It tapped a low of $10.155 earlier in the session.
The proposed ETF is "the best news for silver since the Hunt brothers tried corning the silver market," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, referring to the duo that tried to corner the silver market and pushed silver to $50 around 1980.
Gold at one-week low
Gold futures, however, had a weak trading day Tuesday with strength in the U.S. dollar easing some demand for the precious metal.
"Increases in oil inventories and a firmer dollar put a dent into gold prices early Tuesday," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com. "Gold fell about 1% before recovering slightly and stabilizing."
"For the time being, the trading crowd is going with the 'safe' bet --sell gold, buy a few dollars," he said. "Until, of course, the next set of less-than-positive economic data is released."
April gold fell to a low of $547.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an intraday level not seen since March 14. It closed down $2.90 at $553.20 an ounce.
"Gold and silver continue to defy the bears by quick bouts of profit-taking, followed by a sharp rises that wipe out most, if not all the losses," said Grandich. "This is classical secular bull market patterns."
Dollar strength
Weakness in the precious metal came as the dollar edged modestly higher against its major rivals, following Monday's comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that were interpreted as suggesting that further monetary tightening is to be expected. See Currencies.
The greenback also found support from a bigger-than-expected rise in the core producer price index. See Economic Report.
"For now, gold feels steady in the current $548-$560 range, with physical buying providing good scaled-down support," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
But "dollar strength and easing oil prices may prompt another bout of long liquidation in gold short term, potentially leading the metal back towards $535," he said in a note to clients.
Overall, "the direction of the U.S. dollar is going to be the main current that causes [gold's] ebbs and flows," said Grandich, who said he believes the "dollar has completed its countertrend rally and is now resuming its secular bear market decline."
Gold managed to find some modest support earlier Tuesday after Germany's Bundesbank said it won't sell any gold from its reserves in the second year of a bullion sales agreement with other European central banks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2B0C1D5F%2D8E68%2D498D%2D96BD%2 D955887AD79EC%7D&siteid=google&dist=

[cragga]

From...... http://www.caseyresearch.com/index.php

Dear Readers,

Every time lately that I glance at the gold chart, I am reminded of the prototypical sports movie. You know, the one where "our team"—usually the "underdog"—gets knocked back, again and again, but through sheer perseverance manages to come out the winner in the end.

At this time, the opposition seems to be the $570 level, the latest in a series of psychological barriers that gold has to overcome and hold above in order for market observers and even some fretting gold bugs to once again have faith that this bull market is for real.

But it’s increasingly difficult to place our bets anywhere other than on a sustained gold bull market. Evidence for same is provided by the government announcement last week that the budget deficit for February came in at a cool $119.2 billion, an all-time monthly record.

And, Tuesday of this week, we learned that the U.S. also racked up a record $805 billion Current Account Deficit in 2005, up 20% from the previous record of $668 billion set in 2004. And the trend ominously appears to be accelerating: in the fourth quarter of 2005, the CAD deficit came in at $225 billion, another record—and a 21.3% gain from the previous quarter.

Then there’s this. As reported on March 14 by the Associated Press, new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently sent a letter to Sen. Robert Menendez of the Senate Banking Committee in which, among other points of interest, he stated: "I am quite concerned about the intermediate to long-term federal budget outlook."

"In particular, the budget is expected to come under severe pressure as impending demographic changes fuel rapid increases in entitlement spending. By holding down the growth of national saving and real capital accumulation, the prospective increase in the budget deficit will place at risk future living standards of our country," Bernanke said.

Given the short-term record deficits, the fact that Bernanke is expressing concern about the intermediate and long-term outlook seems to us as if we now have all the bases covered.

But, really, what can the government do about the current economic conundrum? Are they going to take an axe to the entrenched bureaucracy? Not likely. Raise taxes? Possibly, but the amount they’d have to raise them to make a difference would beggar the populace and be self-defeating in the end. Cut taxes to stimulate growth? Not holding our collective breaths on that one. Raise interest rates to keep foreign investors buying our debt? Sorry, housing inventories are already starting to build—and significantly so in some markets.

The fact remains that the economy is now truly between a rock and a hard place… in a box canyon… approaching the end of a road that is, barring extraterrestrial intervention, inevitable.

Viewed from another perspective, we are trapped between paradigms—the paradigm of big spending, empire building and the next paradigm, whatever that may ultimately be.

And oblivious to this sensitive point in time, the politicians continue to meddle and fiddle, caring only about their personal prospects for success in the upcoming elections, and nothing for the implications of their actions.

Take the Dubai ports deal. Simply out of xenophobia and a desire to look tough for the babbling masses, Congress has alienated one of the very rare breed of successful Middle Eastern governments and a key ally in that region.

And the reason given? Because foreigners can’t be trusted with the security of our ports. Hell no! But if you take even a few seconds to think this situation over, you’d possibly take an opposing view. Our ports are leaky sieves at this point, with only a fraction of a fraction of containers being inspected. If a Dubai firm was allowed to take over the management of a few key ports, don’t you think they’d bend over backwards to competently handle security? Of course.

While I’m on this tangent, I’d like to share a story told to me a couple of nights ago by a friend of mine who has an elderly relative he takes to bin

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Silver Makes a New 22 Year High
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1143149709.php

Who Needs Al Capone?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-4830.htm

The Real National Debt
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1143129660.php

[p0ssy]

Gold closed up $9 yesterday to close at $560. Not too stuffed.

[tricha]

CujoDog just taking the micky out of you P0ssy.

He's buying more gold as we speak.

Stolwyk wouldn't waste the time of day replying to .................

BMAgold hit 319 grams over 17 metres. Latest drill results, 25 metres away, 2 metres at 200grams and 7 metres at 90 grams.

And Gold now $790 OZ, bring it on!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[whiteheron]

tricha

Do you , or anybody else for that matter , know how to get a reasonably good fix on the amount of gold contained in a drill result or a series of drill results ? that is from the raw results published initially , before an approved assessment is released by the company
To me , it seems that one would need to get an idea of the three dimensional measurement of the sample , a single drill result not being sufficient to make an assessment eg a drill result from down a narrow vein might look good but may in fact not be very meaningful

I have BMA Gold shares and they look pretty good to me for a number of reasons .
To be able to interpret the recent drilling results with at least some reasonable degree of accuracy would be of great benefit --- I might even be tempted to add to my holdings

[tricha]

Hi Whiteheron

Check out the latest broker report from fat profit on BMAgold, rates it as a buy.

As far as drill interceptions go, I do not know enough, but as far as mining 285,000 tons at 25.6 grams a ton, that speaks for itself.
At a cash cost of $250 OZ an ounce.


http://www.bmagold.com.au/bmagold/newsandreports.jsp?groupId=1097

[whiteheron]

Thanks tricha

I have been doing further research on BMA Gold , looking at the broker report that you referred to together with several others and I must say that it all looks pretty good to me

It is not easy to find companies that are operating with the following attributes
---excellent grades
---cash in hand
---no hedging
---great potential to add to reserves
---very low cash costs of production
---shares still at a moderate cost , will have an excellent P/E ratio and very short payback period

Minelife at present is not long , but with a very high probability of significant addition to resources will no doubt be lengthened thus adding to overall viability

[stolwyk]

Financial Sense Newshour:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm


Don Coxe:

http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp

[stolwyk]

The US: ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Against all sorts of low prices being called, the fundamentalists have won out again.

While there was a slim chance that Gold could have moved down, mentioning of the Silver ETF kept the prices up. Silver, being the leader, pulled Gold across any resistance points.

However, there are a number of deep seated fundamental problems which have slowly coming to the boil and economics students were well aware of this and did'nt react when $490 was called for Gold. Someone else was trying to sell his Silver just prior to the massive latest rises. All were TA people being caught out.

The bad calling extended to very well known international letter writers, even Financial Newshour was'nt immune. I bet there has been some short covering in a hurry lately.
_______________________________

Basically, there are a number of reasons why Gold refused to fall, even in the season when manufacturing was down.

1. Psychological: There has been a great deal of talk about falsifying numbers by the FED. Initially, some knew but the dissemination is becoming widespread: A CPI reorded as 3.5% but in fact 8%, unemployment touted as 4% but closer to 12%, GDP given as 3.5% but in reality bordering on a recession etc.

The FED has become the laughing stock and its manner of interpretation borders on insanity.

2. The international policy of the US is loathed by quite a few countries who are shifting out of USD if they can and into Euros/Gold. The US behaviour towards China is somewhat immature while the wars are going badly.

3. Tradeoffs can be expensive. Bernanke mentioned that the Fed won't be supporting Housing as much as expected. There is a real problem because interest rates are rising and this is affecting valuations and surplus stock.

Although the rate is still well below the rate of true inflation it will hurt the Housing industry and employment.
However, the Dollar needs to be supported although Bernanke does mention that is is not too important. After a few days, the market saw through this ruse and the USD fell assisted by much higher oil prices.

Obviously, if the USD has to fall, then foreign lenders want a higher interest rate which would have attacked Housing anyway. Other countries are also raising rates and to prevent too much outflow of capital to these countries, the US has to keep up the rate. (That is not the reason they wil give).

4. There are no efforts being made to reduce consumption which is still about 71% of the GDP. Lower this markedly and we are having a depression. The US has no alternatives to replace part of this by manufacturing as capital formation is way down; the hollowing out of manufacturing is assisted by outsourcing. Savings are less than zero.

5. Servicing of debt and reallocation of resources by Lenders.
There are signs that big Lenders to the US are rearranging their reserves and the fear is that much US debt has to be inflated away.
+ + + Bernanke is now omitting the M3 data which has created suspicion as to him rapidly increasing the money supply so as to make existing debt less valuable, ie monetary inflation.

Gold will smell this and behave accordingly. I believe that Bernanke hopes to escape the accusation that he is creating hyper inflation: omitting M3 won't inform the market as well.

Last year to Sept 30, 2005, current account deficit rose by 20%. The 2007 year could see this grow to USone trillion! The higher the consumption, the higher this deficit. Lower Consumption markedly and there is a depression in sight.

However, inflating away debt is the major job on Bernanke's mind while standing by to avoid a heavy recession by keeping essential Instruments liquid by intervention: Stockmarket.

6. The raising of interest rates and over consumption in various countries is affecting currencies; Iceland being the first example. More could follow without notice.
The Carry trade is expected to cause problems when being unwound while the massive derivatives loads are inducing fears.

7. Summary: The sum total of these negatives

[stolwyk]

Precious metals in NY trip lower on book squaring
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20 060331:MTFH75373_2006-03-31_19-47-14_N31521032&related=true&rpc=44

Roach: The Slippery Slope
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Biting the Hand that Feeds You
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1143820860.php

Dollar weakens in rumor-prone market
http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-03-30T185829Z_01_N30294603_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-11.XML

Dr Appel: They Won’t Believe Until Gold is Much Higher
http://news.goldseek.com/FinancialInsights/1143826851.php

Vaughan: Gold, Soon to go Parabolic!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/vaughn/mar292006.html

[stolwyk]

Financial Newshour (Keith Barren could be interesting).

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm


Don Coxe
http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp

[stolwyk]

P. V Eeden: Why the gold rally will continue
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=149

COMMENT:
This is the moment, responsible Gold investors have been waiting for.

Housing was warned by Bernanke that the FED won't be supporting it to the nth degree and he had also this to say:

"The chronic U.S. trade gap need not fuel a "precipitous" decline in the dollar, but the economy may be able to shrug it off if it did, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday.

"Although U.S. trade deficits cannot continue to widen forever, these deficits need not engender a precipitous decline in the dollar, nor should such a decline, were it to occur, necessarily disrupt financial markets, production or employment," Bernanke said in a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat."

Those were clear signs that he had decided some time ago, to do something about it and this has now been confirmed.

We also know the reason for omission of M3:
1. Flooding the market with cash wherever that is needed in an emergency.
2. Monetizing debt in a big way.

Of course, he would'nt want Gold to know by how much the money supply is going to be increased.
Foreign lenders may take note.

The US has arrived at a pivotal point; ST posters have been warned about this for some time.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Oil Rises on Concern Iran May Reduce Supplies as Nuclear Dispute Escalates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

[whiteheron]

For discussion

The gold / silver ratio is now just a notch over 50 : 1

[whiteheron]

Sorry , posted in error before I had finished

What will the ratio be by late 2006 ? --- my bet is around 40 or 45 to 1

[stolwyk]

U.S. Dollar- Na, na, na, na, hey, hey, hey, goodbye!
By: Peter Grandich-The Grandich Letter, Grandich Publications, LLC
http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1144177140.php

Venezuela Oil Field Seizures Cause Jitters By NATALIE OBIKO PEARSON, AP Business Writer
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060404/ap_on_bi_ge/venezuela_oil_shakeup_

Housing won't derail U.S. economy-Fed's Fisher
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20 060404:MTFH51554_2006-04-04_17-56-53_WAT005225&related=true&rpc=44

FOREX-Dollar drops as ECB rate outlook powers euro
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?

High gold price hits jewellery demand
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e2e001e8-c335-11da-a381-0000779e2340.html

[stolwyk]

5 April: WHERE ARE GOLD AND SILVER GOING?

The importance of Consolidating and sidetrading.

Some callers want blood and they have been trying since Dec. to get the Gold price down. Shorters are becoming squeezed.

So, they now hope that Silver will retrace to $9.50, taking Gold along with it.

However, there is a way of preventing a correction and that is by sideways trading and consolidating. Doing so, reduces the STO and sets the scene for further rises.

At the moment, as soon as it dips, buyers step in and any correction is very small: Gold is 585.3 and Silver 11.63.

So, I do hope it keeps sideways trading for a few days yet.

Experts have said that as soon the coming Silver ETF is satisfied, Silver will drop heavily. Presumably, some will short it and are expected to be persistent about this drop so they can make a profit. (Downramping with the aim of buying at lower levels can be found everywhere.).

I can't see a a big correction as the supply of Silver is not that great after it was drained by the ETF in the first place-assuming it will trade.

China is the only worthwhile country who can export some silver but I can't see them being stupid either by forcing the price down.

One also needs to take in consideration there could be imitators of this Silver ETF, once it is being traded.

If so, than a squeezed market will be squeezed even tighter.

This in turn will keep Gold prices higher as well. With the driving force of silver, Gold corrections could be smaller and they may be fewer.

Much depends on Chinese silver supplies.

Those are my opinions,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

He ma, look there: the Chinese want to buy the White House! (Stolwyk).

6 April: Gold 588.5; silver 11.71

[whiteheron]

Gold has reached US $595 and silver US $12.10

The gold / silver ratio is now below 50 : 1 ( 49.54 )

[trader10]

Hartleys' golden outlook

Ben Sharples
Thursday, April 06, 2006

A FLURRY of mergers and acquisitions and a gold price moving towards the $A1000 mark is what the Australian gold sector can look forward to, according to broking house Hartleys, which has also warned against dysfunctional hedging.



Hartleys director of corporate finance Martin Pyle told delegates at Paydirt's Gold Conference in Perth on Wednesday that if the gold price remains high, the Australian gold sector can expect to see the re-opening of old mining centres and a whole lot more M&A activity over the next 12-24 months.

"In the Northern Territory we see Pine Creek getting a new lease of life, in Western Australia we've seen projects like Westonia, Fortnum, Higginsville all open for business," Pyle said.

"We're going to see more cross-border activity and this time it's going to feature more mid-tier and junior companies.

"It has started already, we saw last year GBS Gold acquire Northern Gold and Terra Gold, we saw the IAMGOLD merger with Gallery Gold and we're seeing presently Intrepid Minerals and the Nustar [Mining] merger.

"That sort of activity is clearly going to increase as North American companies make use of their premiums over there to buy Australian opportunities."

In addition, Pyle said the sector will see majors discard non-core assets, which in the current environment are going to be very attractive pickings for junior companies, and
more high risk-high reward exploration plays enter the market.

"We are also going to see more of the 'follow your nose mining ventures' and this will be projects that'll start up opportunistically on very small resources, possibly with not even reserves but utilising low capital start-up opportunities," Pyle said.

"Now this can be a pretty risky business but I think with the margins available at the current spot price, it certainly is going to encourage a lot of companies and good on them for giving it a go."

Commenting on hedging, Pyle said "it seems in the current environment, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't".

"I query dysfunctional decisions that are being made in relation to hedging ... are mining companies hedging heavily when the prices are low and then not hedging at all when prices are high?" Pyle said.

"I think the issues here are companies need to focus on not what's fashionable but what is right for their project.

"Clearly, don't hedge more than you produce, not even a fraction of it, and don't hedge at prices that are lower than the costs of your operation as we've seen in the last 12 months. The costs of your operations are related to the underlying economic cycle of commodity prices.

"So make sure there is decent margin in there before you contemplate using it."

Pyle also touched on the "insatiable appetite" for gold shares in the marketplace that indicated well over $400 million had been raised by the junior end of the sector over the past six months.

http://www.miningnews.net

T10 ;)

[stolwyk]

PLENTY OF BOILS IN THE US ECONOMY KEEP THE GOLD PRICE UP.

As to fundamental reasons which support the Gold price, there are plenty and these have been mentioned.

1. However, there are additional ones coming to the fore and the latest is the full scale civil war in Iraq while the Taliban have been emboldened in Afghanistan.

Given some time, this area can "be written off".

The Shiite rulers in Iran and Ben Laden must be rubbing their hands: they don't need to do much as Bush does it for them.

The latest idiotic proposal from the White House is to discuss the Iraq situation with Iran.

Once most of Iraq is under the Shiites control, then their guerilla forces will keep infiltrating Saudi Arabia and other countries.

So, already, a premium is built into the oil price because of geopolitical factors which grow worse by the day.

Venezuela who holds the final Oil aces, can cut the oil supply off to the US any time this country does'nt behave itself. True, the US can invade it but it wil be shown to be the bully.



2. As to the US deficits, all three are increasing, the Current Account Deficit could be some US$850 mill this year:

April 6: Hodges: America's total debt: 2006 update: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hodges/2006/0406.html

It is clear that rapid monetizing is needed-Increasing the money supply to cheapen debt. This monetary inflation can cause price inflation and rises in Gold prices.

The pace is picking up, latest is 8.5% but that was before M3 data was withheld. (Europe's M3 is freely available).

One may conclude that Bernanke's motto will be "now or never" and that at some stage hyper inflation is always possible.

No matter, how one looks at these problems, the US is badly placed; the interest due on this growing debt load alone must be very high and is growing as well.



3. Much attention is focussed on currencies, the coming possible less contributions from China/Japan and other countries to the US deficits, interest rates, housing, the consumption levels in the US and the USD.

Another strong combination supporting the Gold price.

So, sofar, only a couple of items which keep up the Gold price, have been discussed.

Summary: Any corrections to the Gold price can only be limited, IMHO. Much depends on the behaviour of the USD as Hedge Funds are waiting for it to decline.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Gold & Silver Accomplish More Impressive Gains on the Week
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1144987260.php

Now: USD 89.37; Gold 596.25; Silver 12.89; Oil: 71.0!!

Fed officials give hint rate hikes nearing end
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-04-13T225642Z_01_N13189231_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-FED.xml

T'is The Season? Maybe Not.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/apr132006.html

Gold on its way to an all-time high? Gold Survey 2006
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/221281.htm

[stolwyk]

The frightening truth of why Iran wants a bomb
By Amir Taheri
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/16/do1609.xml&sSheet=/portal/2006/04/16/ixportal.html


Exchange to Change Margins for Silver and Copper Futures Contracts
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1144963308.php

Beware the Banking Cartel and the Collaborating CFTC
http://news.silverseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1143486077.php

Silver Margins by: Charleston Vo
http://news.silverseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1145018481.php

Gnazzo: The Precious Metals vs. Interest Rates & Gibson's Paradox
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gnazzo/2006/0415.html

Peter Schiff Interviews Jimmy Rogers
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff041706.html

________________________________________

M. Faber speaks:
http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/newsarticle/stocksnews.php?autono=197592

Extract:
Q: Can the dollar fall alone, or would it be the dominos effect, which would take down other markets?

Faber: In my opinion, the dollar will depreciate mostly against the gold. In the long run, what you will see is the standard of living in America will decline very significantly compared to the standard of living in Asia.

And the stock market capitalization of US, which is now 52% of the world's stock market capitalization, which will decline to somewhere between 20% and 30% and the Asian stock market capitalization will rise to between 20% and 30%, possibly 50% of the world.

[stolwyk]

I have referred to the fact that the FED can't really control Oil and overseas Gas prices, hence my interest in EPG.

As to the possible termination of interest rate rises, the FED is trying to minimize damage to housing as this would affect the whole economy. Signs are they may have gone too far.

Economic issues tend to be connected: the necessity of countries to keep contributing to the US deficits while at the same time, better avenues of investment could be available.

It so happens that the EU has not completed raising interest rates: they started much later. Raising rates tends to increase the value of the EURO currency.

So we have the spectacle that the US dollar is coming down and the US may have to stop raising interest rates while the EU is attracting capital because of raising interest rates and higher EURO, capital badly needed by the US.

So, there could be problems servicing the US current deficit and the result is monetizing the shortfall and the consequential increase in monetary inflation. (Bernanke does'nt want us to know the M3 data).

This does'nt take account of all the other problems, the chief one being the high oil price which will create price inflation and dampen the US economy.

Venezuela and Iran are major players with regard to oil pricing and of course, a lower dollar is not conducive to lower oil prices.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

GOLD 623.3; Silver 13.91 USD 87.77! Oil 72.79

[stolwyk]

The FED is taking keen interest in the speed silver prices are rising and is quickly raising margins.

From Charles Voice:
"Up we go again!
But two days after increases the margin requirement for COMEX silver on 4/13, at the end of tomorrow's close they'll go up again this time a larger incremental hike of $500, from $3,250 to $3,750.

Copper will go from $3,500 to $3,750.

With silver now trading over $14 in the access market the margin % required will go to 5.36% from 4.64%.

The banking cartel will do whatever it again to cripple commodities while protecting housing. If any future Fed Funds rate increases are to be delayed the precious metals and commodities in general will soar, putting us over the threshold to hyperinflation. The problem then is to crush commodities with the margin hammer".

- - CV

[stolwyk]

C Voice mentioned the increasing margin requirements when trading silver contracts.

That is engineered by the FED.

I don't think, the FED will tolerate the existence of a silver ETF assuming there are no restrictions.

Obviously, when the FED raises margins on the one hand, it can't tolerate higher silver prices arising from a free operation of a silver ETF.

So, there will either be stringent conditions attached to any float of an ETF or a long delay before approval.

What I am saying is that a Silver ETF registered in Europe or the UEA may have more success. If one had been buying in silver, then it could be launched now.

But don't rely on the FED to assist the establishment of any ETF which is contrary to its interest. That could finally affect silver prices.

You saw it here first!

Gerry

[stolwyk]

The FED can't tolerate numbers which indicate either high inflation (Most monetary) now, or to come.

If prices of these precious metals were much lower then it could claim there was less inflation because "the numbers say so". (In reality, it would be higher).

And in the US election year, one can't have too high Gold and Silver prices because that indicates high inflation.

So the FED is throwing in everything it has: margins were increased and after a week were again increased; now they have increased these 2 days thereafter. If necessary, expect them to increase these every day till the Hedgefunds get tired holding Silver and sell.

Of course in inflation terms, silver is not that expensive really but expensive enough to the FED.

Once Gold moves too high, the FED will increase margins as well.

The FED is fighting battles on several fronts, all of their own making.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

from todays Midas

Today’s action:

Silver went limit down, $1.50, with trading halted for 20 minutes. At that point, longs couldn’t sell silver so they ran into the gold pit and sold it as a protection against further silver price declines. That selling sent gold into the toilet, as it fell to a $606.90 low. However, while silver closed on its lows of the day, gold stormed back, ONLY giving back what it made yesterday … an impressive performance when you consider how gold has run of late.

The silver margin increase to $5,036 took its toll. A 50 cent drop would not make a dent to the majority of silver longs. $2 and change is another matter and the margin increase caused a number of silver bulls to pitch.

This is the second time that after reporting Goldman Sachs to be a major buyer with gold soaring the next day, that it was hit hard the second day after their buy. It is as if they cover a certain amount, knowing the price is going higher in the short-term, only to have ammo to bomb it at a higher price.

To further support the notion that gold will be roaring again soon and making new highs, the open interest FELL 831 contracts yesterday to 352,926 on nearly a $14 up day. That is nothing less than sensational in that it proves this rally has not been one of speculative excess and shows how desperate the shorts are to cover.

It confirms to me that we still have a MASSIVE amount of additional short covering to kick in and that this gold correction will be short-lived because there are not the normal long specs to shake out.

The silver open interest rose 1792 contracts to 142,200. Relative to gold, the higher OI leaves silver more vulnerable to more on the downside. … especially with the bullish consensus at a staggering 98%. While it may be vicious, I don’t think silver will stay down very long. The problems in the physical market, behind the scenes, must be severe for silver to do what it did the past couple of weeks.

Not insignificant:

*May copper was down 13 cents at one point, yet managed to close a pinch higher at $2.9620 per pound. This will not go unnoticed by the silver bears.

*While crude oil closed down 47 cents, tomorrow the market will be quoted basis the June contract, which closed at $73.55, around $2 higher than the May contract, which went off the board today

[stolwyk]

THE FED INCREASES MARGINS AGAIN FOR METALS AND GAS.

Thanks C Voice.

Contact: Anu Ahluwalia , 212-299-2439
Title: Exchange to Change Margins for COMEX Division Futures Contracts

NEW YORK, N.Y., April 20, 2006 —The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its gold, silver, and copper futures contracts, beginning at the close of business on Friday.

Margins for the gold futures contract will increase to $2,250 from $1,750 for clearing and non–clearing members and to $3,038 from $2,363 for customers.

Margins for the silver futures contract will increase to $4,500 from $3,750 for clearing and non–clearing members and to $6,075 from $5,063 for customers.

Margins for the copper futures contract will increase to $4,000 from $3,750 for clearing and non–clearing members and to $5,400 from $5,063 for customers.

http://www.nymex.com/press_releas.aspx?id=pr20060420a

# # #

Contact: Brenda Guzman , 212-299-2436
Title: NYMEX to Change Margins for Natural Gas and Related Futures Contracts

NEW YORK, N.Y., April 20, 2006 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., today announced margin changes for its natural gas, NYMEX miNYTM natural gas, Henry Hub swing swap, Henry Hub swap, and Henry Hub penultimate swap futures contracts, as of the close of business on April 21.

Margins for the first month of the natural gas futures contract will increase to $9,000 from $6,500 for clearing members, to $9,900 from $7,150 for members, and to $12,150 from $8,775 for customers. The margins on the second to sixth months will increase to $7,500 from $6,000 for clearing members, to $8,250 from $6,600 for members, and to $10,125 from $8,100 for customers. Margins on the seventh through 11th months will increase to $9,000 from $7,500 for clearing members, to $9,900 from $8,250 for members, and to $12,150 from $10,125 for customers. The margins on all other months remain unchanged.

Margins for the first month of the Henry Hub swap futures and Henry Hub penultimate swap futures contract will increase to $2,250 from $1,625 for clearing members, to $2,475 from $1,788 for members, and to $3,038 from $2,194 for customers. The margins on the second to sixth months will increase to $1,875 from $1,500 for clearing members, to $2,063 from $1,650 for members, and to $2,531 from $2,025 for customers. Margins on the seventh through 11th months will increase to $2,250 from $1,875 for clearing members, to $2,475 from $2,063 for members, and to $3,038 from $2,531 for customers. Margins on all other months remain unchanged.

Margins for the first month of the NYMEX miNYTM natural gas futures contract will increase to $2,250 from $1,625 for clearing members, to $2,475 from $1,788 for members, and to $3,038 from $2,194 for customers. Margins on the second month will increase to $1,875 from $1,500 for clearing members, to $2,063 from $1,650 for members, and to $2,531 from $2,025 for customers.

The margins for the first month of the Henry Hub swing swap futures contract will increase to $2,250 from $1,625 for clearing members, to $2,475 from $1,788 for members, and to $3,038 from $2,194 for customers.

http://www.nymex.com/press_releas.aspx?id=pr20060420b

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment: this is the powerful weapon, the FED uses: increasing margins-see my posts of 19 April.

This interference is designed to depress prices, even if there is a shortage.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[bronson]

Powerful weapon indeed.

Can this have an effect of depressing prices permanently or will it just turn out to be a short gap measure?

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by bronson

Powerful weapon indeed.

Can this have an effect of depressing prices permanently or will it just turn out to be a short gap measure?


In the end it comes down to supply and demand bronson
I see this as a desperate move by the authorities in an attempt to knock this commodities bull on the head - it will have a short term affect but in the long run it comes back to supply vs demand.
The authorities are anticipating a crunch in nat gas supply with still about 20% of gulf gas offline from last yrs hurricanes.
One can be sure that these desperate measures are not going to increase the supply of nat gas.
.

[stolwyk]

I would'nt underestimate the FED's action; one more margin increase will bring the stocks down again.

They are already not showing M3, and that is unheard of in Europe; so they are a very ruthless bunch. They'll do anything to rubbish gold and silver in election year. And that includes some commodities as well.

Silver is not looking too well at present,

Gerry

[Mick100]

I agree Gerry but you shouldn't lose sight of the big picture. The FED can try all soughts of tricks but the one thing they can't do is to bring new supplies of these commodities to the markets. Neither can they significantly reduce the demand for these commodities unless they orchestrate a worldwide depression and we both know that they won't do that.
,

[whiteheron]

Yes Mick , good comments
Governments can only manipulate things in the short term -- the big picture will eventually prevail
The laws of supply and demand are very powerful

[stolwyk]

The FED has held the price of Gold and Silver down for many years between 1987 and 2001. One could argue that supply is less than demand but much of that demand is investment related.

Consider GAS. The FED stopped prices going up by increasing margins. This really drowned the prices. Yet they do import gas as well, Gas is not in surplus.

While in the long run, gold will win, the FED can cause considerable damage for quite some time. It is not a straight forward case of producers, investors and consumers. Markets are being rigged because of the amount of paper derivatives which is much greater than the physicals.

Many traders and hedge funds may not want to wait that long to see it out.


Gerry

[bronson]

The Fed can go and *#$% themselves.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk



Many traders and hedge funds may not want to wait that long to see it out.


Gerry


Your right Gerry - a few speculators have already been burned over the past 24 hrs and it looks as though there's going to be a good shakeout which is good for a long term bull market. You have to admit that things were getting a bit frothy - particuarly silver.
This will give those of us with a long term view another buying opportunity - can't complain about that can we !

;

[tricha]

I found this very interesting [B)][}:)]

Cash is Trash!

By Puru Saxena

April 21, 2006

www.purusaxena.com



THE PICTURE – Your wealth is being stolen due to inflation, period. Whether you like it or not, central banks continue to churn out a ridiculous amount of paper currencies thereby robbing you of your savings. This is a crucial issue which you must understand if you want to survive and prosper over the coming years.

The global economy has severe imbalances with the US heavily in debt and facing record-high deficits. The total debt monster in the US has now grown to $46 trillion, the trade deficit now exceeds $800 billion and the American consumer is swimming in debt. Similar imbalances can be seen throughout the “developed” economies of the West. Therefore, bankers and governments who want to stay in power at all costs have decided to resort to accelerating the rate of monetary inflation. “But why would they do that?” you may wonder. The answer can be summed up in the following words –

Inflation makes debt less formidable and easier to handle.

Allow me to explain. I want you to imagine that your grandmother took out a loan of $50,000 in 1950. Back then, this was a lot of money and your grandmother would have found it quite hard to service and repay this debt. However, due to inflation over the past 56 years and its consequence (decline in the value of money), your grandmother’s debt is now much easier to repay as $50,000 isn’t worth that much today. So, you can see that with time and inflation, debt becomes more manageable.

Our world has faced inflation and nothing but inflation since the Great Depression of 1929 as the money supply has increased constantly. However, what concerns me is the fact that the rate of inflation (money supply growth) is likely to sky-rocket over the coming years. Below, I present the money supply growth rates around the world –

Australia + 8.1%
Britain +12.2%
Canada +6.4%
Denmark +24%
US +8%
Euro area +8%

Looking at the above figures, you can see that over the past year, a significant amount of money has been introduced into the system. The thesis is that the surging money supply will cause the value of money to drop and make it easier to repay the mountains of debt. “But what about my savings?” you may ask. Frankly, the establishment does not care about your savings. In order to remain popular, the officials almost always cater to the needs of the majority. Today, the majority of the population is heavily in debt and with its back against the proverbial wall! Therefore, you can bet your bottom dollar that the rate of inflation will continue to surge and hyperinflation may not be far away.

Some argue that inflation is a good thing, a necessity in the modern economy as it facilitates trade. Personally, I don’t buy into this concept because throughout the 19th century, we witnessed mild deflation, yet our world made huge progress over that period. Next time when somebody says that inflation is okay, ask them if they would like to own shares in a company, if this organisation issued and gave away new shares every year? Would they be interested in owning stock in this great company if roughly 10% new shares were being added to its share capital every year? The truth is that nobody in their right mind would invest in such a scam! Yet, people find it absolutely normal when the same thing happens to their money stock otherwise known as savings!

Money is supposed to be a store of value that acts as a medium of exchange. Well, the paper in circulation today does act as a medium of exchange because you can go to Starbucks and buy a cup of fancy coffee but it surely isn’t a store of value! How can it be a store of value when it buys less and less with every passing year? In fact, the US dollar has proven to be such a great store of value that it has lost 92% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913! Figure 1 clearly demonstrate

[stolwyk]

SILVER: INCREASE OF THE MARGIN:

The FED keeping up the pressure on Silver:

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,136,00.html#Changes

Increase from 3510 to 4725 on Monday

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

SILVER: INCREASE OF THE MARGIN:

The FED keeping up the pressure on Silver:

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,136,00.html#Changes

Increase from 3510 to 4725 on Monday




That's a big increase in margin requirements which is going to force some of the longs to close their positions next week. They are determined to bring silver down and with this increase I think they will be successful.

I'm looking forward to hear what Dave Morgan has to say about this on FSO tonite
.

[whiteheron]

Mick

Is FSO an audio site ?
Perhaps you can enlighten me

Thanks

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

Mick

Is FSO an audio site ?
Perhaps you can enlighten me

Thanks


http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

You can't listen to it until the "real player" turns blue which is usually around 7.00 pm Sat nite
,

[stolwyk]

Once silver comes down to reasonable levels. the FED will attack Gold with increasing margins.

Make no mistake about it, these are desperate men!

Hopefully, Central Banks will lessen their exposure to dollars (Sweden did), so the USA is fighting several battles on several fronts.

Volcker complained that he let Gold rise too high, Bernanke will do anything to prevent it.

Gerry

[nelehdine]

Increased margins also make it tough on the "shorters" ...

[stolwyk]

Yes, but those Banks acting for the FED wil have shorted and they would'nt worry about this, I think.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk



Volcker complained that he let Gold rise too high, Bernanke will do anything to prevent it.

Gerry


Again , I agree gerry
I know first hand how Bernanke feels about gold
The texts books that I used last year for my economics studies were co-authored by Bernanke. He's very anti gold. He blames the depression directly on the gold standard at that time
.

[stolwyk]

Don Coxe:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0001/

[vicmackay]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Once silver comes down to reasonable levels. the FED will attack Gold with increasing margins.

Make no mistake about it, these are desperate men!

Hopefully, Central Banks will lessen their exposure to dollars (Sweden did), so the USA is fighting several battles on several fronts.

Volcker complained that he let Gold rise too high, Bernanke will do anything to prevent it.

Gerry


How far will they push gold down to in your opinion. Will they be happy back at $500 o/z or lower?

[clearasmud]

Vic,

IMO we are still in a gold bull market however gold will seem to be collapsing at times.
This imo is driven by an overvalued usd needing to ease and the inflation caused by the booming metals and oil prices
Perhaps during bear phases is when one should buy a gold stock(s)

I'm watching Oceana Gold (OGD) also am keen on Goldstar (GDR)
Both these co's will imo do well (esp. GDR) no matter what the gold pr

[stolwyk]

Volcker, the then FED chairman exclaimed that he let Gold get away and Bernanke is well aware of what that means.

Apart from being competition to Fiat paper, higher gold prices indicate much higher monetary inflation ("printing" more dollars) and resulting higher price inflation due to the same good representing more dollars-Watering down the currency.

And the economic precarious situation with its ever increasing deficits presents a big challenge, more so in election year for the Govt.

The lower gold can be pushed back, the better their "low inflation" argument can be used while prices of some commodities can be brought back at the same time, the FED hopes.

1. It has started first with depressing Silver which at $14.70 had run away.

The margins were increased more frequently with time:

4 April: Initial margins increased from 2500 to 3000
12 April: Increased to 3250
18 April: Increased to 3750
21 April: Increased to 4500 to come into effect on 24 April.

What is causing some anguish is that the correction of Silver which took place on 20 April, USAEST) resulted in a fall from 1470 to 1190 and the FED increased the margin thereafter. At the moment, silver is 12.95.

It is possible that Silver could be pushed down more and then perhaps it will be Gold's turn?

In the meantime, the FED will hold up the launch of the Silver ETF, I believe. After all, the purpose is depressing the price of silver.


2. The 2 problems, the FED has is the high oil price (Over $75) and the lowering of the USD, now 87.77 (-0.2). Both promote price inflation.

They don't control the oil price, not with Iran and Venezuela in the equation and with Nigeria not performing.

Formerly, the announcement that the US had plenty of oil reserves, often lowered the oil price but now, this data together with most vital FED data is mistrusted; in any case, the Iranian stand-off has priority.

So, taking into account all other negatives and the strong demand for Gold, the FED will have a job fighing Gold in a worthwhile manner.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

SIX HUNDRED YEARS OF SILVER PRICES:
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html

INDIA: Great gold rush: Buyers hoarding bars, coins, not jewellery
zeeshan.shaikh@expressindia.com




The Times April 22, 2006
BGI pledges silver fund go-ahead despite rout in the metals markets
By Richard Irving

BARCLAYS Global Investors (BGI), the British investment firm, insisted yesterday that it would go ahead with a new fund targeting US speculators in the $60 billion (£34 billion) a day silver market, despite a second day of tumultuous losses which have wiped more than one fifth off the value of the precious metal in the last two days.
A spokeswoman said the company was committed to launching the fund, despite the rout in the metals markets.



Silver tumbled to $11.60 an ounce in early morning dealings in London, after hitting a 23-year high of $14.68 on Thursday. Dealers pushed the price to within a sliver of $15 an ounce on Thursday morning, partly on hopes that BGI would buy huge supplies of silver bullion to back the launch of the new fund.

The spokeswoman declined to say when the vehicle will be launched, citing confidential talks with regulators in the US, where the security will mainly be marketed.

However, she insisted that volatility in silver prices would not deter BGI from proceeding with the product: “The launch of our silver-based investment fund does not hinge on recent market conditions . . . We originally filed the product with US regulators in May 2005. There are a number of regulatory hoops that we still have to go through but that is not contingent on prevailing markets.”

The precious metal recovered some poise yesterday, after initially extending Thursday’s losses to more than 20 per cent as speculators who had gambled that silver would punch its way through $15 an ounce cut their losses in the wake of profit-taking by longer-term investors.

One dealer told The Times: “People are still digging out from yesterday’s fallout. Frankly, we never thought we would end the week at anything below $15 an ounce. Given that we’re now looking at the $12.60 level, I think it’s fair to say that some people are going to have a pretty bad weekend.”

Taso Anastasiou, a technical analyst at UBS, the Swiss investment bank, poured further gloom on the outlook, warning clients that silver prices were still prone to further sell-offs: “Short-term, you could look for a move down towards about $11.30 and potentially down to the $10.39-$10.40 level.”

However, rivals urged that it was too soon to call an end to a remarkable bull run that has seen the price of silver rise by more than 68 per cent this year alone. Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, suggested that prices might start edging forward again after a period of stabilisation: “Even though we have seen such an agressive sell-off, we haven’t damaged the underlying bull market.”

VERSATILE ASSET

Sterling silver is used for jewellery and silverware, where appearance is paramount. This alloy contains 92.5% silver, the remainder is copper or another metal

Silver nitrate and silver bromide are used for traditional photography but not for digital

Silver is is also used in dental alloys, solder and electrical contacts; for high capacity silver-zinc and silver-cadmium batteries

Silver can be used to back mirrors because it is the best known reflector of light, but tends to corrode

Silver paints are used in making printed circuits

Medallions and commemorative coins often employ silver but the metal is rarely used for traditional coinage: it is far too expensive to make practically sized coins and wears faster than nickel

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9072-2146207,00.html

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COMMENT: This ETF has received shabby treatment from the FED, who, as I wrote, would'nt want it as it would drive up prices of silver and gold

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks a week
before the 1987 Black Monday crash and began recommending
commodities at the end of 2001, said gold may rise 10-fold in the
next 10 years:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aUeDGtHNebpI

[stolwyk]

BIG TROUBLE AT MILL: USD

Bush has'nt got much to lose, his ranking, already low, is falling each month.

My opinion is that he will most likely be called the worst US president, the US ever had. And they had their share. He is now a lame duck and not really wanted by many countries.

But, apart from the 1929 depression, most presidents were effective overseas even if their US legacy was not that great.

That all changed with Bush who has exposed the world to new dangers, be it geopolitically or economically, the latter by flushing the world with surplus dollars while the US debt is astronomical. He also lost the initiative on the world stage.

No wonder then that influential Russia challenged the G7 about having the USD as the world's reserve currency:

"Dollar is no longer absolute international reference currency: Russia":
http://archive.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=119981

That could mean that some Principals are already very seriously thinking about replacing it. I would think that any new currency could be based on the Euro, the rubble and the Chinese yuan.

Russia is now becoming one of the influential countries due to its commodities and precious metals.

Whatever currency is decided upon, holding USD be it in cash or Bonds, is not a good idea, I think.

One can expect more negative statements on the USD, so expect it to fall. At the moment, it is 87.1

The biggest problem will be the change-over with China, Japan and others holding some large USD balances held in cash or bonds.

Somehow, it will need to be done gradually, otherwise large losses could be made or a recession/depression could result.

At the moment one is waiting for Asian consumption to pick up, making these economies less dependent on the US. Once that moment has been reached, then the change to a better Reserve currency may well occur.

Meanwhile, the smaller economies are not going to wait for that and are including less USD in their Reserves. This and less partaking of the Majors in financing the US deficits ought to be a warning for USD holders.

From now on, one can expect more fallout and more fabrication of numbers by the FED.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

The FED increases margins from 4725 t0 5400 to come into effect tonight.

Actually, it will be at the close of business tonight:

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,136,00.html

Margins are escrowed by the broker.

From C Voice: "After the initial margin, then it becomes a maintenance margin which is somewhat lesser amount, but can be a substantial % of the total amount an investor has to invest, hence he can only afford fewer contracts, short or long".

Comment: As mentioned the FED is trying to bring the silver price down and reduce the losses made by principal shorters of which the FED is most likely one (Goldman-Sachs and Morgan Banks)

[stolwyk]

IRANIAN OIL BOURSE TO OPEN SOON:

Iran oil bourse next week
Apr 26, 2006


Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said on Wednesday that the establishment of Oil Stock Exchange is in its final stage and the bourse will be launched in Iran in the next week.

He told reporters, upon arrival from Qatar where he attended the 10th General Assembly of International Energy Agency and consultations with OPEC member states, that registration of the Oil Stock Exchange is underway and the entity will operate after being approved by by Council of Stock Exchange.

He rejected a statement attributed to him saying that Oil Stock Exchange will bring to the ground the US economy and said, "I don't know who has speculated that I've not talked about US economy." Asked about conference on energy in Doha, he said that more than 60 countries and 30 oil companies and consultants took part in the conference.

Vaziri Hamaneh said that serious discussions were held including security of supply and demand, security of investment in energy and environment issues.

"The best method for security of demand in the oil sector is that consumers should be given opportunity to enter into partnership with the suppliers in investment in oil industry."

He said that the conference called for diversifying energy resources and cooperation of the developed states with the countries possessing oil and gas resources.

Asked about the oil price rise, Vaziri-Hamaneh said that oil price is being influenced by political situation, whereas it should be freed from political impacts and economic and technical fundamentals should determine the oil prices.

"As long as political impacts dominate the oil market, price hike will continue," he concluded.

Original at http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_15158.shtml

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Futures lower on China rate hike, Bernanke caution
China makes first rate move since October 2004; Bernanke to testify
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes | Discuss By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:54 AM ET Apr 27, 2006


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Stock futures headed lower Thursday as China's central bank lifted interest rates and on caution ahead of testimony from the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
A downgrade of Dow industrials component Honeywell also may affect sentiment.
S&P 500 futures dropped 5.7 points at 1,303.30 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 8 points at 1,702.75.
On Wednesday, the Dow industrials hit a new six-year high, helped by strong data, indications from the Federal Reserve of a healthy economy and solid earnings from Boeing Co. and PepsiCo.

The Fed's view will draw renewed scrutiny as Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee.
Weekly jobless claims, expected to edge up to 305,000 from 303,000, are due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The Chinese central bank lifted its key base rate to 5.85%, the first rise since October 2004. The dollar fell against the Japanese yen but rose a touch on the euro.
Crude-oil futures continued to edge lower, losing 65 cents to $71.28 a barrel.
Thursday also will see the release of a batch of earnings, including ExxonMobil (XOM : exxon mobil corp com
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 0.000.000.00%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications&siteid=mktw&dist=


USD: 86.40(-0.59)

[stolwyk]

There are many dimensions to holding of Gold.

Yes, there are many reasons why people want to hold gold.

Nearly all of these have been discussed over and over again. Very striking is that the US FED does'nt issue M3 Money supply data anymore but Europe does.

So the Fed is hiding something and the increasing gold price will have that as one of its components. It is known that the FED has to inflate at a high rate simply to make its massive debt less valuable by watering down the money supply.

The economy is malconstructed with consumption and housing taking a large chunk of GDP. Lowering the USD does'nt help manufacturing exports that much because they virtually destroyed the base by outsourcing.

A high consumption increase in any month is being portrayed as a sign that the economy is running well, but unfortunately, it means more borrowing by the consumer while the Trade deficit increases as well.
_________________________________

I want to refer to terrorism, be it State (US is an example) or State controlled terrorist units (Iran).

Sophisticated weapons are secretly being transferred to areas, where these are wanted; an example being the missile which can be fired from the shoulder at planes.

The US by invading Iraq has drawn terrorists who would be waiting for a sign to strike inside the US.

Or where the rights of citizens have been ignored for so long that an uprising takes place in some countries.

Anything big happening there can affect trade and economies of other countries.

So, in this harsher and unpredictable climate, people will be forced to live in, Gold will find its rightful place.

So, it is not just a matter of rising oil prices and safety of delivery, but also any prospective action of terrorists which could build a premium into the gold price.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

Maund: How US Investors Can Best Profit From The Trashing Of Their Currency
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1146411000.php


International Forecaster April, 2006 (#5) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1146412340.php

Global: Rebalancing Legitimized! Stephen Roach (Hong Kong)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Schmidt: Moneyization #23
http://news.goldseek.com/NedSchmidt/1146410665.php

THE ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN IN THE DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&P 500
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/0430.html

[stolwyk]

P Van Eeden: Jewelry demand and the gold price
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=152


MOMENTUM IS BUILDING

There are a number of phases in the dissemination of Gold research and news:

1. Introduction to the Investor.
Some articles about Gold are written and read but acceptance level is low.

2. The US makes a number of capital mistakes and these are referred to and a tie-up with Gold prices is aimed at. Reception is still lukewarm but the thinkers keep investigating.

3. These US mistakes become more obvious and are becoming more detailed.

4. Citizens are hit by inflation and numbers issued by the FED which they disbelieve. Meanwhile, the Fed and Wall Street maintain the Fed's stance in the more or less controlled mass media.

5. The money supply is being increased worldwide and some countries are starting to slowly diversify out of dollars and reweigh reserves.

6. Oil prices move up and the Geopolitical situation is slowly deteriorating. People start more investing into Gold and Silver.

7. Some bonafide ETF's are collecting quite a lot of Gold and the demand is becoming greater than the supply. Silver ETF's are starting up. Hedge Funds are moving in.

Gold bugs don't need to convince others as much and can afford to work less. Gold and Silver hit the headlines in the financials.

8. The mainstream media grudgingly accepts that too much favouring the FED is really being noticed and the more liberal are starting to write about Gold.

9. The stand-off from IRAN, the proposed Iranian Oil bourse and the Iraqi situation hit home. THe IMF is in favour of a lower dollar.

10. Meanwhile many suspect that the US is rapidly increasing the money supply without telling anybody (M3 not disclosed). The oil supply situation is becoming more fickle and prices stay high followed by more inflation and an expected stagnation, the USD is continuing to move down.

The astronomical US debt is widely published and the omission of M3 has now been noticed.

11. Gold smells that these mentioned negatives are starting to converge and the combined outcomes are starting to shake the US economy. Gold and Silver prices rise assisted by a still falling dollar.

12. There is confusion about raising interest rates but the Gold investors think that the US Housing will get hit, and will affect the total economy. Alternatively, Bernanke will vastly increase the money supply to protect housing and lower interest rates.

Such a policy will again increase gold prices, because judgement day is being delayed.

13. Finally, there is so much dissemination in international financial and popular media (India is a good example), that the public is now becoming aware and starts to invest in Gold and Silver.

14. A momentum is slowly building up; one minor negative event is now taken as confirmation; the FED and US treasury are not too popular and people are protecting themselves against the ravages of inflation /erosion of currencies by investment in precious metals.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

USD 85.88 (-0.52)
Oil 72.57 (+0.69)

[stolwyk]

The Barclays "iSHARES SILVER TRUST":
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=23194


There is also the "ETF Securities" Gold ETF which will branch out into Silver, starting in the UK. This Gold ETF holds more than 500 tonnes of gold and is the largest with branches, including Australia.

(The Streets ETF or GLD holds now 358 tonnes of Gold and is the second largest. It has been going much shorter than "EFT Securities".

[stolwyk]

4 May: Marc Faber interviewed on Bloomberg TV

Video
Marc Faber: Gold Prices, Fed Policy, Currencies

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ag2iXIX3eOFA&refer=us

[stolwyk]

Martin Weiss: The winds of war: http://www.safehaven.com/article-5097.htm
___________________________________________

Date: 5 May, time 18.48 hrs.
Comment:
The US Govt has attracted a lot of foreign money but difficult times are coming up.

The FED's interest rate is about 5% and that of the Euro is 2.5%.

There are several Institutions who want the USD down. It is now 85.32, oil is 70.35 and Gold is 680.

However, while the USD is moving down, the Euro is moving up, now 1.27 and rising.

Even now, when investing, the combined rise in the Euro Currency and its interest rate look better than a higher FED interest rate, offset by a falling dollar. So, US interest rates need to rise.

However, the Euro can take more interest rates rises if it has to, because 2.5% is still low.

Not so the FED's rate in theory, because that would impact severely on the economy. If it has to stop raising interest rates, then cash will flee to Europe and the US debt interest payments will run short. The USD will fall further and interest rates will normally rise again to attract foreign capital.

Bernanke will most likely monetize much debt as well as interest payments to prevent the economy from seizing up (Hence no data on M3).

That ought not to stop the Euro and Gold from rising further till there is some equilibrium, if there is one.

I don't like predicting as to how low the USD will fall apart from suggesting that the US and other nations will have a cruel road ahead of them.

This is of course just one side of the equation. Slowly but surely, countries are rearranging their Reserves by including less US dollars and adding other currencies, including Gold.


Then, the coming unbundling of some of the vast Chinese, Japanese and others' dollar holdings with the FED. (Normally reported in M3)

Admittedly, they will try to achieve this in a controlled fashion so as not to sink the dollar-that would be against their own interests- but one can accept that a lot of dollars will flow back to the US, making the USD cheaper.

See what happens.

Gerry

USD now 84.94, dropped from 87.1 in 9 days or 2.5%.

[stolwyk]

And yes,
It is coming to pass:

ECB hints at bigger rate rise
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Published: May 4 2006 12:41 | Last updated: May 4 2006 17:53

The European Central Bank held its main refinancing rate at 2.5 per cent on Thursday, but the move is likely to prove a mere stay of execution for borrowers, with the Frankfurt-based bank strongly tipped to raise rates to at least 2.75 per cent in June.

Futures markets are pricing in eurozone rate rises in June, August and December, with a one-in-four chance that the June move will be a half-point hike.

Indeed, until a month ago the market had been increasingly eyeing a rate rise today, only to backtrack when Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the ECB, sounded unexpectedly dovish in the aftermath of the April rate-setting meeting.

As a result, none of the 66 economists polled last week by Reuters expected a hike.

A swathe of data in recent weeks has pointed to signs of an ongoing economic recovery in the 12-nation bloc, strengthening the view that the ECB will follow up its quarter-point rate rises of December and March and take rates to at least 3.25 per cent by the year-end.

Inflation is estimated to have risen to 2.4 per cent in the year to April, up from 2.2 per cent a month earlier and comfortably above the the ECB’s target of “close to, but below” 2 per cent. Producer price inflation is currently running at 5.1 per cent, buoyed by rising energy costs, implying pipeline inflationary pressures.

Asia currencies and eurozone rates send dollar to low

The European Central Bank’s warning that eurozone interest rates would almost certainly rise next month sent the dollar to a new one-year low against the euro, leading to further dollar weakness against all leading currencies.

Click here


M3 money supply growth, a key indicator for the monetarists on the ECB’s governing council, has also risen from 7.9 per cent in the year to February to 8.6 per cent in March. Both China and Australia have cited strong credit growth as a factor behind recent interest rate rises.

Business and consumer sentiment indicators have also risen, particularly in Germany, where the keenly watched IFO business sentiment index has risen to a 15-year high.

And data released this week showed both the eurozone’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices rose to their highest levels since September 2000 in March. Even Italy, the eurozone’s chief laggard, has joined in the upswing.

Belgium, the first country to release its provisional estimate for first-quarter GDP, indicated that growth was running at its fastest pace for 18 months.

Even unemployment, the Achilles heel of the eurozone economy, has started to move in the right direction, with data released on Wednesday indicating the jobless rate across the bloc fell from 8.2 to 8.1 per cent in March, the lowest level since April 2002.

While the strong data flow led to some suspicion that the ECB might raise rates after all, most observers concluded that Mr Trichet would be reluctant to surprise the markets, and would instead wait until June.

In addition, the euro has risen strongly from $1.212 to $1.259 against the dollar in the past month, hitting a one-year high earlier this week. Not only does a strong euro, in combination with rising bond yields, do some of the ECB’s tightening work for it, but it may also make policymakers more reluctant to add to the euro’s rally still further by raising rates faster than the market is expecting

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/83a142de-dab2-11da-aa09-0000779e2340.html

"The European Central Bank’s warning that eurozone interest rates would almost certainly rise next month sent the dollar to a new one-year low against the euro, leading to further dollar weakness against all leading currencies"

[stolwyk]

LONDON, May 6 (IranMania) - Iran's Oil Ministry took a step toward establishing an oil trading market denominated in euros, rather than the US dollar, by granting a license for the bourse, Iranian state-run television reported.
Just who would trade on the market wasn't immediately apparent. Iranian television did not mention traders or governments willing to market or purchase products on the exchange, nor did it say when it would open for business, the Associated Press (AP) reported.

"Iran has registered an oil bourse on the Persian Gulf island of Kish in which oil would be sold in euros," the broadcast said. Kish, located off the coast of southern Iran, houses the offices of some 100 Iranian and foreign oil companies.
Oil trading is currently only conducted in dollars on markets in New York and London.

According to AP, Iranian legislators earlier this year urged the government to set up the market to reduce the United States' influence over the Islamic republic's economy. They also criticized Oil Minister Sayed Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, saying he had delayed setting up the bourse.

If the market succeeds, observers say euro-denominated oil sales could eventually convince central bankers to convert some US dollar reserves into euros, POSSIBLY CAUSING A DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR’S VALUE.
First floated in 2004 when reformist president Mohammad Khatami was in power, the idea of a euros-traded oil bourse gained new life after the stridently nationalist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president last summer, AP pointed out.

As the fourth-largest oil producing country in the world, the second in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and controlling about 5 percent of the global oil supply, Iran has a measure of influence over international oil markets. Tehran also partially controls the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world's oil supply must pass, AP added.

Iran has sought to wield its oil resources as a bargaining tool in Tehran's ongoing standoff with the West over its nuclear program.
Iran's deputy oil minister, M.H. Nejad Hosseinian, said Thursday he doubted the UN Security Council would impose sanctions on Iran's oil sector because such a move would drive oil prices higher, AP stated.
Council members are considering imposing sanctions on Iran for defying their request to halt all uranium enrichment-related activities by late last month.

[stolwyk]

Finding Comfort (and New Friends) in Gold

http://www.golddrivers.com/News/News2006/20060507%20fcgold.htm




Commercial capitulation in Silver - May 6th 2006
Carl Löfberg
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lofberg050506.html

[stolwyk]

Indian demand belies surging gold prices

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=67273

[stolwyk]

Warren Buffett Sells the Family Silver

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19497

[stolwyk]

USA's 'Geopolitical Nightmare' and Eurasian Strategic Energy Arrangements
by F. William Engdahl

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2006/0508.html


The Silver Investor Looks at the Silver ETF Past and Future
by David Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/2006/0510.html


Global: Dollar Spin--Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060508-mon.html

[tricha]

Well, this is daunting. A few great trends.

[B)][}:)]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Barisheff/may112006.html

August 15, 1971: Inflation Unleashed

By Nick Barisheff
May 5, 2006

www.bmsinc.ca


The general public, the media and most financial observers were largely unaware of the momentous event that took place on August 15, 1971. However, the implications of that event have had an enormous impact on global financial conditions ever since. On that date, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window”. In essence, this meant the US would no longer honour the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, which made the US dollar the world’s reserve currency, and allowed other countries to convert their US-dollar holdings into gold. In simple terms, the US defaulted. Those who may have glanced at the announcement buried within the pages of their daily newspaper were unlikely to have understood the implications for their financial future.

Under Bretton Woods, there was some control over the money supply since other currencies were convertible into US dollars, and the dollar itself was convertible into gold. With the demise of Bretton Woods, the entire world found itself on a monetary system backed by nothing more than the faith and credit of individual governments for the first time in history – a pure fiat system. This meant there were no longer any restraints on the amount of money that individual governments could create at will. As a result, a flood of paper money was unleashed globally, a trend that has increased exponentially over recent years.

The official justification for Nixon’s action was that foreign central banks were getting nervous about the dollar’s strength caused by a growing US federal budget deficit, and were converting US dollars into gold in increasing amounts. The US gold reserves had declined from a peak of 21,682 tonnes in 1948 to 15,821 tonnes by 1960. By the time Nixon closed the gold window, US reserves had dropped below 8,500 tonnes. Nixon could not risk any further depletion of US gold reserves.

As a consequence of Nixon’s move, the US dollar declined against most currencies over the following decade, and declined 95% against gold as the price of gold shot up from *$35 per ounce to a high of $850 per ounce in 1981. The situation finally stabilized when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 18%, halting further declines in the dollar and triggering a 20-year bear market in gold.

Without the fiscal restraints inherent in a gold-backed currency, politicians worldwide were able to promise social programs and expand government bureaucracies that could be delivered through borrowing money created by the central banks rather than through direct taxation. They could embark on military campaigns with borrowed dollars that future generations would have to repay. And borrow they did, particularly in the US. In 1971 the total US federal debt stood at $436 billion. Today, that number exceeds $8 trillion. The 2005 increase in the federal debt of $571 billion was more than the total debt in 1971. Worse still, when calculated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and taking unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations into account, the total federal debt is actually $49.4 trillion. This equates to more than $160,000 for every American.

From a monetary base of about $800 billion in 1971, the growth in money supply started to accelerate exponentially from 1987 onward, as Alan Greenspan became more comfortable in his role as Federal Reserve chairman. During his term in office, he created more money than all the previous Fed chairmen combined. At the time of his appointment in 1987, the total broad-based money supply (M3) stood at $3.6 trillion. By the end of his 19-year tenure, it had increased nearly three-fold to a staggering $10.2 trillion. Greenspan’s replacement, Ben Bernanke, is likely to surpass Greenspan’s record. He earned the nickname “Heli

[stolwyk]

11 MAY, 14.05 hrs.

MOVING TOWARDS THE ABYSS?

The many negative economic, fiscal, and geopolitical events, spur on Gold.

And the more negative parameters converge, the greater the chance that the Gold price will keep on moving strongly or alternatively that corrections will be minor: too many buyers waiting in the wings...

The latest problem is the FED's increase of interest rates which in the opinion of analysts are high enough so as to cause some damage to the housing sector.

On the other hand, a higher rate is needed to keep real inflation at bay. Should there be no more increases, then Gold will benefit as inflation will roar on particularly due to high oil and commodity prices and increases of the currency, apart from other factors which already play a major role in pushing gold forward.

If there won't be an increase, it means that the US can't afford another one and that a certain amount of damage is already being done.

If the FED insists on making more rate increases-it ought to and could do at least another one- that won't be enough to keep inflation down but would be too much for Housing which is an important part of the GDP. Moreover, the population has over-borrowed so there are few reserves.

So the FED has become a tightrope walker with weight at one end of the balancing rod only. That weight will be Gold!

So, there are always some negatives which come to pass and help Gold along.

The problem is that these risks are not temporary but are of an ongoing nature, no matter that the FED and Administration will try to keep the lid on bad news.

________________________________________________



However, it is only part of the equation.

Influential overseas Institutions favour a lower USD, but one which value is only lowered slowly. If it is'nt, then interest rates will rise more quickly.

There are some indications this is being worked on. The Euro is rising (Now 1.27) at the same time and this gives overseas investors more incentive to invest in Europe or at least increase their contributions to the Euro debt instruments.

That will mean a flight of money from the US to Europe, money needed to invest in the US Bonds to pay for the interest on the trillions of borrowings.

One can see more increases in the money supply (The FED will print more currency) while the interest rates are likely to rise irrespective of what the FED likes to do. This is of course a dangerous moment, but the FED hopes to hide this by not releasing M3 data.

The EEC can make further increases in interest rates thereby inviting more cash from overseas and the Euro could rise further.

Altogether a case of the FED and the USA being in straightjackets being nursed along for how long?


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[Bel]

My prediciton in 3 easy steps.

Inflation will continue to rise.

The US and EU will not allow inflation to run unchecked and will raise interest rates.

People will pull money out of the sharemarket and place it into the money market.

Gold owners will run out of buyers.

It all comes crashing down.

I just hope my predicitions are as accurate as my counting ability.

[stolwyk]

Maund: Gold Market Update:
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1147363440.php


Maund: Silver Market Update
http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1147360284.php

Willie: Weapons of Mass Destruction
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1147363500.php

[jacko]

Poor Ben Bernanke. He must be having sleepless nights grappling with an insoluble problem. The US has lived beyond its means for far too long and crunch time has now arrived. The US economy is at the edge of an abyss and GOLD is telling the story. The horse has bolted and the drama is about to unfold. It will be a fascinating month or so on the global economic stage.

Will gold correct? I believe it will but the international hunger for safe haven gold is insatiable. The slightest dip results in a demand surge. Gold is now into the second stage of the greatest bull market the world has ever seen. When the 3rd stage arrives it will go to the $2000-3000 level. Thats gold fever and itsinot far off.

I dont know what will happen to the stock market. I guess an economic collapse in the US economy will result in a domino effect globally.

The best option is to invest in physical gold and silver and as a second choice gold shares and energy shares.

[stolwyk]

FSN: http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Don Coxe: audio: http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp



ARE THE DOW JONES AND GOLD APPROACHING PREVIOUS RECORDS?
Chris Puplava:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

A "Spike" or Something Else?
Excerpts from GLOBAL WATCH: THE GOLD FORECASTER
by Julian D.W. Phillips
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0513.html

A more defensive stance
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=154

[stolwyk]

INFLATION - THE INVISIBLE TAX!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/saxena051206.html

Gold price to Kick in Full Gear: Faber
http://www.golddrivers.com/News/News2006/20060508%20goldinfullgear.htm

Hon. Ron Paul: What the Price of Gold is Telling Us
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

Inflation data may give stocks whiplash
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-05-14T152508Z_01_N1295965_RTRUKOC_0_US-COLUMN-STOCKS-OUTLOOK.xml&src=rss&rpc=23

James Turk: The U$D Turns South (Audio)
http://www.howestreet.com/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer?audio_id=310

[tricha]

Make sure you’ve got GOLD!

Stagflation Here We Come!

By Greg Silberman

May 15, 2006

goldandoil.blogspot.com



I’ve been out of town.

I travel fairly often between Australia and the USA and it never ceases to amaze me that you can sit on a plane for 20 hours (that’s right!) and arrive in an ALTERNATIVE REALITY.

To say that Australia is far from the US is a MAJOR understatement. However the differences don’t stop at Geography. The US is a nation of consumers. The public is focused on Property, Gas Prices and War. The US never ever sleeps!

Australia on the other hand is about lifestyle. The beach, leisure and spending time with family comes first. Australia is also at War but it doesn’t seem to affect the psyche as much. Property prices are no longer the talk they used to be – it’s now the stock market. Gas prices though are also a worry.

ATLANTA INVESTMENT EXPO

As far as expos go the Atlanta Investment Expo was very small. That was great for me because it allowed me to have one-on-one discussions with some Heavy Weights in the Resource Industry and Stock Market Bears.

I was lucky enough to have a close friend accompany me to the expo. It would be fair to say that his attitude and focus towards Commodities changed quite a bit as a result.

I consider my friend a ‘Thinking Mainstream Investor’ so I felt I could extrapolate his views to those of the Investing Public at large. Here’s what I came away with:

• For all the Noise and Chatter about metals and oil making decade highs, we are still very early in this Commodity Bull Market. I’d say we’ve got at least 10 years to go but probably more. It’s going to be a long game so pace yourself for a marathon and not a sprint.

• The public is still shocked when a speaker talks about the Demise of the American Empire and the “Death of the Dollar”. 5 years ago such talk would have been nothing short of treasonous. You gotta love America for Free Speech!

• Energy is the pivotal factor affecting prosperity. Gold and Inflation are a complete unknown.

• The American Investor better realize there is a World outside the USA - especially when it comes to money matters. Americans should travel more and consider implementing what James Turk calls the Last Plane Ticket (LPT). The LPT is a plan to have some assets outside of the USA in case of Government confiscation or exchange controls. The LPT can be used to live off if you have to leave the country. To even contemplate such a thing comes as an UNBELIEVABLE shock.

• The internet is the main source of information for Resource Based investors. The mainstream media have failed miserably in reporting the TRUE story.

My personal view is that in 2 to 5 years time these kinds of expos are going to be Full Houses. You won’t even get close to any of the guest speakers.

THE MAIN STORY

The talk right now is about Gold pushing through the $700 line.

Consider that it took Gold rising to $850 before Paul Volcker was able to break the back of inflation in the early 80’s. Now were at $700 and nobody even acknowledges that there is inflation! Therefore Gold is going to go a LOT higher before the dust settles. In fact adjusted for inflation Gold will have to exceed $2,000 just to match its peak of $850 in 80’s!

Long time readers know that I’ve been reluctant to call this current Monetary phenomenon by name. Is it Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation or what? The reason being, a convincing case could be made for investing in Gold and Energy in almost any monetary climate.

However, I now feal reasonably comfortable in calling this Beast.

For the foreseeable future I believe we are looking directly at Stagflation.

Stagflation is an Inflationary environment coupled with very low rates of growth.

Here’s why I believe we are facing Stagflation:

The US economy is a paper tiger. Almost everyone I know in the US is involved someway or another in Real Estate. And that means Debt!

Now Debt is ok provide

[stolwyk]

THE "SPLIT" ECONOMY OF THE US

I call it a split economy because it is off-beam and needs urgent and deep restructuring.

Unfortunately, it can't be done wihout causing a lot of damage, although the FED does its best to either hide it (M3) or remanufactures a lot of data so as to put the American economy in a good light.

The 2 most important items-there are more- are the Housing sector and the vast increase in money supply causing real inflation.

The Housing sector contributed a great deal to the GDP, it is the lopsided part of the economy because so much capital has gone into this mainly unproductive sector. Also, owners have used their houses as ATM's and are now heavily over-borrowed.

Consumption meanwhile rose to 71% of GDP and much of this is associated with housing and their use as ATM's which enabled the owners to consume more but left negative savings.

Higher interest rates are already attacking the housing sector, although interest rates are less than inflation.

Because investment went into speculative housing, funds were diverted from manufacturing which is only some 8% of GDP but may have risen somewhat (Germany: some 30-35%).

So the problem is to to cool down the housing sector and minimize the damage and lower the dollar so as to promote exports.

In practice this is a daunting task as this will result in a strong increase in unemployment which is already under-reported anyway.

Consumption will also fall and a deep recession is a strong possibility or a depression if the US raises interest rates too much. Because housing contributed to tax due to goods being used, heavy leaning on housing will result in less tax and the unemployment will make it worse.

The FED can print as much money as they like so as to reduce the value of debt but this housing problem and its strong influence on the economy remains.

So, the US finds itself in a checkmate situation and they know it or alternatively nurse this problem along and leave it to the next Administration.

So this split economy consists of a lopsided 71% consumption and the rest comes from other sectors.

There will be important US data to come this week; first indication points to a softer employment situation.

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Russian Rouble to attack the $ - Exchange Controls in the U.S.?

Excerpts From – “Gold Forecaster – Global Watch”

May 16, 2006


http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/may162006.html

Extract:
In his annual state of the nation address before both houses of parliament, ministers and reporters, Putin said work on making the national currency fully convertible should be completed by July 1, almost six months ahead of the original January 1, 2007 deadline.

The president called for the establishment of a Rouble-denominated oil and natural gas stock exchange in Russia.

"The Rouble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for in Roubles," he said. Putin said this would be impossible without economic growth of over 7%, which, he said had been achieved in the past three years.

This is the second most significant step in removing the U.S.$ from the throne of sole global reserve and trading currency! Should any more oil producers take this step, it will precede a U.S.$ crisis and create massive potential instability in the globe’s foreign exchanges.

Because this is so important to gold and to you the reader, we are going to turn this into a series of pieces detailing the way forward. Needless to say, these moves are very, very positive for gold. [If Putin keeps his word on the gold front, we should expect Russia to enter the gold market as a buyer soon too?]"

[bronson]

Can someone please offer some opinions as to what may happen to the gold price now that there are inflationary pressures in the US?

Thanks

[tricha]

Bronson - read this articule on the 17th,

Make sure you've got GOLD!

Stagflation Here We Come!

By Greg Silberman and a lot of others on this Stolwk's and read .................... and come to your own conclusion,up till last September I had no gold stocks, but I'm bloody glad I do now.

Because last year gold decoupled from the USA dollar, up until then I was knocking gold as a waste of space, but since then I have read and read and hopefully understand whats going on a little bit better.

Regards not so [B)][}:)]

[vicmackay]

Gold is now officially stuffed. Give it two months and it will be down under $400.

The bubble has burst.

[Packersoldkidney]

quote:Originally posted by vicmackay

Gold is now officially stuffed. Give it two months and it will be down under $400.

The bubble has burst.


:D :D