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stolwyk
04-10-2004, 04:37 PM
SELECTION OF GOLD EXPLORERS.

Please note that various approvals need to be obtained before mining can proceed. There can be no guarantee that these will be given.

Resources are expanding most of the time, so any resource listings are only valid up to the date of listing.

Al metals including Gold are quoted In Situ.

In some cases, the other metals have been converted to "Gold equivalent ounces" based on $US1.45 for Copper and $US6 for silver. Gold is assumed at $US415/ounce.

TSX is the Canadian TORONTO exchange. A Warrant is expressed thus: WT, eg NG.WT
Supply of warrants can decrease over time and this may result in some "uneven" trading.

So, summarizing, what type of stock did I select?
1. I prefer the North of Canada and Atlaska where the big deposits are. Costs are low per ounce and there often are metal credits as well. There are no souvereignty problems although agreements need to be made with native tribes.

Canada is pro mining while Alaska is even more so: Their program: "Roads to resources" pays for new roads and bridges.

Nova Gold is well known for making agreements with the Alaskan Govt and tribes and was therefore selected as a partner by Placer Dome on their 25 mill + ounces gold Donlin Creek resources. (The latter was defined after drilling of 2 km with another 8 km of that trend still to be explored.

2. I kept clear of companies who didn't have an aggressive expansion policy.

3. I went for mass and these had to be exploration companies where the share price curve can be the most positive ( increase of price) while the resources are rapidly increasing.

Finally, the companies tend to show different characteristics, eg the state of progress made.

So we have:
NDM.TSX: At least 3 years to go before mining can start on a massive scale. Few shares. At the moment resources are 27 mill ounces of gold and 16.5 bill pounds of copper. The Equivalent is a total of 84.6 mill ounces gold.

NG.TSX: Start mining in 2006, followed by a much larger mine in 2007, then another one and a joint ventured massive mine in 2008.

Few shares. The resource is 17 mill ounces of gold, some 100 mill ounces of silver and 7.7 bill pounds of copper. About 2 mill ounces of gold can be added each year while drilling proceeds.
The last resource statement was in May and I expect 2 mill ounces to add before Dec 31.

The Equivalent in May was a total of 45.3 mill ounces.
I have NG.WRT

WRM.TSX: It is a producer and buys up mines to increase ounces. (Has $US200 mill cash and $US300 mill credit). It also explores. Has quite a lot of shares but little need for new dilution. Top Management and rapid expansion; Likes to buy cheap. No hedging.

Resource (probable, measured and indicated) about 11 mill ounces of gold, 33 mill ounces of silver and has copper. Has been mentioned as a takeover candidate.
I have WRM.WT

NCM, an Australian producer and expanding quickly. Has hedging. A very large company with very low costs coming up shortly. Resources 58 mill ounces of gold and a massive amount of copper. I have NCM.

SEA.TSX: Few shares, one or two key projects, prefers not to run a mine themselves. I don't have SEA.

NNO.TSX: Large copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry deposit and 12.5% stake in ALUMBRERA.
Their deposit AQUA RICA in Argentina has about 10 mill ounces gold and 18 bill pounds copper. With say Gold at $US415 and Copper at $US1.45, the equivalent total gold resource would be about 72.9 mill ounces gold.
I have NNO.WT

The mentioned companies have a thread on this site.


Gerry
Holds NDM, NG.WT, WRM.WT, NNO.WT, NCM.
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
09-10-2004, 06:27 PM
THE BIGGER EXPLORERS AND OXIANA (OXR).

Please refer to my previous post for background. Share values in $CAN. Other metals can be converted to Equivalent ounces on the basis of $US1.45/lb (Copper), $US6 (Silver) and $US415 (Gold). Note: Projects referred to will need environmental and other approvals.

1. NDM: Shares: 45 mill. Fully diluted: 52.3 mill. Cash on 17 Aug: $10 mill. Share price: $6.27. Prebble deposit to be driilled in 2004, already 169 holes drilled before. Copper and Gold. Equivalent ounces of Gold: 84.6 mill. Several studies this year are being done. I believe, a BFS could be completed in 2005; mining to start in 2007?

2. NG: Shares: 62.8 mill; Unlisted Options: 6.6 mill. Warrants (NG.WT): 3.6 mill, to pay $7.0 to convert before 1 Oct. 2008. Fully diluted: 73 mil. Cash $60 mill on 1 July. Share price: $8.17. NG.WT: $3.40. Copper, Silver and Gold. Equivalent ounces of gold: 45.3 mill. BSF: 2005. To start mining in 2006. (100,000 ounces.), Total cash and production costs $US200/ounce.

By 2007 (Gnome and Galore Creek), about 370,000 ounces of gold, 200 mill lbs copper and 1.8 mill ounces of silver/year could be produced per year. Equivalent ounces of gold: 1.09 mill. Massive Galore Creek deposit: Total production and cash costs CAN15 cents for copper, using Gold as a credit or minus, yes - CAN$180 ounce if Copper is used as a credit.

By 2009, about 600,000 ounces of Gold, 200 mill lbs of Copper and 1.8 mill ounces of Silver could be produced. Equivalent ounces: 1.32 mill.

3. NNO: Shares: 110.9 mill shares and 53.2 mill reserved units, consisting of about 41 mill Warrants (NNO.WT), to convert on May 30, 2007 at $1.65. The rest will be Company Options to Management. Fully diluted: 164.15 mill. Cash (May) $US41 mill . Share price: $3.38. NNO.WT: $1.80. Copper and Gold: Equivalent ounces of gold: 72.9 mill. Close to a BFS but mining date is not certain.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

OXR: 1187 mill shares. Gold: SEPON: Resources: 1.3 mill ounces.
From Presentation: Khanong: Copper: 1.12 mill tonnes (Equivalent ounces of gold: 8.61 mill mil.) Deduct 10% for Govt participation; net: 7.75 ounces of Gold
From Presentation: Prominent Hill: 1.455 mill tonnes of copper and OXR has 65% of this or 0.95 mill tonnes or equivalent ounces of Gold: 7.26 mill.

Also Gold: 1.56 mill ounces and OXR has 65% or 1.014 mill ounces.
Total Equivalent ounces of gold from al sources: 17.3 mill ounces. To start production: Febr/March 2005. Within 5 years from the start (2010), OXR hopes to produce 500,000 ounces of gold and 200,000 tonnes of copper annually, or an Equivalent 1.53 mill ounces. Total production will be about 2.03 mill ounces of Equivalent gold per year in 2010.

In the next section: $CAN=$A1.0866. Resources = Equivalent ounces of gold. Ounces per $A CAP: Based per $1 cap market value: Shares*Share price

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++
Company. 1: Resources. 2: Diluted shares(M). 3: Share price ($A). 4: Ounces per share. 5: Ounces per $ACAP
NDM. 1: 84.6. 2: 52.3. 3: $6.81. 4: 1.617. 5: 0.237
-NG. 1: 45.3. 2: 73.0. 3: $8.88. 4: 0.620. 5: 0.070
OXR. 1. 17.3. 2: 1187--3: $0.88. 4: 0.014. 5: 0.016

Discussion: OXR had expenditure on the plants and ideally we ought to adjust the Nova Gold and NDM results to reflect that. OXR will start production in Feb/March 2005; NDM most likely in 2007, needing a plant costing some $CAN500+ mill.

NG will start in 2006 ; we'll allow $CAN40 mill+ for Plant in 2006 and the main production will start in 2007 (Galore Creek). We allow $CAN400+ mill for that Plant or $CAN440+ mill for the 2 plants.

At the current higher share prices, both companies can attract far more bank credit than OXR could. Abovementioned construction costs of NDM's and NG's are deemed to be 2004/2005 year's costs.

Assume that financing of the Plants is 50% by the Banks and 50% by the shareholders (unless there are preference shares as well). Then based on the current prices ($CAN), MDM needs another 39.9

whiteheron
09-10-2004, 06:53 PM
stolwyk

I am (for me )very heavily into OXR

In all of the research that i have done on mining companies OXR is in the top 2 or 3

Without going into too many details it has everything going for it , eg current gold producer , strong financial position , first copper production early next year
With the present and increasing gold and copper prices and the extreme shortage of copper supplies need i say more

One that i am sure will fire with both barrels ie both gold and copper
And thats not counting Prominent Hill !

Must be a winner
Time will tell , as always

whiteheron
09-10-2004, 09:35 PM
Oops !!!!!

The end of the first line of the third paragraph should read -------, first copper production due early next year

Sorry about that , something obviously came unstuck

Mick100
09-10-2004, 10:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

stolwyk

I am (for me )very heavily into OXR

In all of the research that i have done on mining companies OXR is in the top 2 or 3

Without going into too many details it has everything going for it , eg current gold producer , strong financial position , first copper production early next year
With the present and increasing gold and copper prices and the extreme shortage of copper supplies need i say more

One that i am sure will fire with both barrels ie both gold and copper
And thats not counting Prominent Hill !

Must be a winner
Time will tell , as always




Whiteheron, I'v seen so hype regarding Oxania I decided to have a quick look at it.

Measured, indicated and inferred resources - 3.5m oz's Au, 5.0m oz's Ag (1 gm/ton cut-off)

850000 tons copper

950m shares on issue

I really fail to see what so many other people appear to like about this company. I'm holding about 10 miners in my portflio at present
and I'm glad to say that OXR is not one of them. I wouldn't buy it at half the current price from what I know of this company.

I must be missing something


Mick

whiteheron
09-10-2004, 10:25 PM
Mick100

Based on what you say i will re visit OXR as it is a wee while since i looked at it and it is difficult to remember all things about each company when one looks at so many

I purchased several parcels at mid to high 70c to 80c range so i am well in the money at present

I hope to post again on this within the next day or two

stolwyk
10-10-2004, 05:26 PM
This is the key section from my last post:

+ + + The amended "ounces per share" -See table- will now be: NDM: 0.917; NG: 0.453 and OXR: 0.014.

+ + + The amended "ounces per $ACAP"-See table- will now be: NDM: 0.1347; NG: 0.051 and OXR: 0.016
_________________________________________

Comment: An NDM share will buy you a resource of 0.917 ounces IN SITU. At $US415 an ounce, that is $US380.55

However, the price of the share was CAN$6.27. and for that 0.917 ounces resources, the value is: $US380.55*1.2516= CAN$476.30.
____________

The definition of ounces resources per 1$ACAP. For NDM, that is:
Ounces/(shares*shareprice) or 84.6/(92.2 mill shares*$6.81)= 0.1347 US$= A$1.361:

Per $A of the market capital, you will get a resource of 0.1347 ounces In SITU or $A76.00
______________________

Sometimes one is asked what the cost per ounce resource of gold is. In NDM's case for the CAN$6.28 one gets 0.917 ounces, so the cost per ounce resource would be Can$6.85 Ideally, both numbers ought to be in $US:

+ + + So the cost per ounce of gold resource for someone who bought in Canadian currency is $6.28/1.2516/0.917= US$5.47 per ounce per US share. US$=CAN$1.2516

+ + + For NG: 8.17/1.2516/0.453=$US14.41 per ounce per US share.

+ + + For OXR: 0.88/1.361/0.014= $US46.18 per ounce per US share.($US=$A1.361)


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button

whiteheron
10-10-2004, 08:26 PM
stolwyk

I suspect that i may be having problems with my computer

The last 2 postings on this subject that show as originating from you are 9/10/04 at 7-27pm and 10/10/04 at 6-26pm , but i have a feeling that you had another posting on 10/10/04 at about 5pm ? as i am sure that this showed up on the summary of posting , but no such posting has ever shown up in full on my computer --- but maybe i am mistaken

Earlier in the day the end of one of the lines in a posting of mine was not showing or was cut off , but this now seems okay (see above )

Perhaps you can check and see if i am missing a posting or not

Thanks

stolwyk
10-10-2004, 08:35 PM
That post of 9/10, time 7.27 was written today. It replaces a reminder that the space was reserved for calculations which I did today.

Other than that the system is complete.

Gerry

Gofish.
10-10-2004, 08:50 PM
One of the attractions of OXR is that the area they have in Laos is substantial, with a lot more exploration to be done. Drilling is expensive - there is no point doing unnecessary drilling once you have proven up sufficient resources to satisfy or exceed the project BFS. Money is tight for development companies.
They consider - with some "scout" drilling to back it up - that there is a lot more gold and copper out there. The numbers in actual proven resources and reserves do not tell the full story.
If you look at the recent OXR presentation you can see a number of projects staggered over the next 3-4 years so that as one project comes on stream (eg gold upgrade this year to 230K Oz/pa) the another is progressing to production (copper March 05)
Management is well regarded as while they have heavily promoted the company, they have generally underpromised and overdelivered.
With the right ground, plus other projects like PH, they can continue on a growth path for some years.

whiteheron
10-10-2004, 09:05 PM
stolwyk
You look like you are heavily into mining shares and so am i

One area that i have difficulty in when interpreting mining shares is the mining technical jargon --- things such as the type of ground , rock , etc that contains finds and the various types of processes used to extract the metals , how far processing is taken etc
Obviously these factors have a bearing on costs
Also , i would like to be better able to interpret things such as grammes per tonne and percentages eg what are the ranges to be expected for the various precious and base metals ? and what are average and excellent production costs per gramme , pound , tonne etc ?
I have picked up quite a bit by reviewing many companies , but would like to upskill in this area to be able to better interpret announcements , presentations , articles etc

Can you (or anybody else ) point me in the direction of a booklet or similar on the above matters ?
I have managed to get a certain amount from Google searches and articles on the internet
but something that covers it all in one place and in laymans terms , if such a thing exists , would be great

Any help will be much appreciated

whiteheron
10-10-2004, 09:31 PM
stolwyk and Gofish

I have re visited OXR today and still feel quite happy with it
Perhaps there are too many shares on issue , but other than that it is hard to fault in my opinion
Some people are probably put off by the Laos location but OXR have now been in production for some time at their gold mine , apparantly without any political problems
And they will be prospecting aggressively on excellent ground in the next few years

Fat Prophets have recommend OXR and that is how i originally got on to them

As a matter of interest i consider that the next few weeks will be very good for OXR with the price of gold and copper likely to stay VERY strong

But i am still learning --- dont accept my word for it

stolwyk
10-10-2004, 09:41 PM
Gofish,

The problem many Aussie companies have is a large amount of shares. OXR got also caught when they took up the 20% from RIO TINTO.

When you read about these and many Canadian explorers, you will find that the number of shares held by many Canadian companies is very low indeed. Also they make placements without calling on the small shareholders and I have always preferred that.

There are some very nice share prices as well.

This extract:

+ + + So the cost per ounce of gold resource for someone who bought in Canadian currency is $6.28/1.2516/0.917= US$5.47 per ounce per US share. US$=CAN$1.2516

+ + + For NG: 8.17/1.2516/0.453=$US14.41 per ounce per US share.

+ + + For OXR: 0.88/1.361/0.014= $US46.18 per ounce per US share.($US=$A1.361)

Says a lot.
_________________

You said:

"They consider - with some "scout" drilling to back it up - that there is a lot more gold and copper out there".
I want to point out that much of the PD/NG 25 mill ounce deposit at Donlin Creek has not been drilled either; they only drilled 2 km of the strike length of 10 km and got the 25 mill resource ounces.

And there is a lot more gold in the projects.

Now, a mine which is nearly ready to produce is allowed a higher cost per ounce rating than that allocated to exploring only.

Anything below $20 would be very good for NDM and NG IMHO. I would expect more than $20 cost per ounce for OXR because they are ahead further. However, the above mentioned $46.18 is somewhat high, I think.

There is a difficulty when the production per share is ascertained: OXR can produce twice as much based on 1187 mill. shares than Nova Gold does on a 100 mill shares and obviously Nova Gold can be 6 times better off on a per share basis.

It really means that OXR is on a threadmill as far as production is concerned particularly at that level they mention in 2010. However the share price will reflect that.


Good luck to the OXR holders. It is up to them.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
12-10-2004, 08:57 PM
Whiteheron,

One can buy a book with mining terms, I think: Published in Perth. Saw it advertized or mentioned once.

Re Oil and Mining of all sorts, HotCopper has quite a lot of expertise and it would be worthwhile posting there.

The subjects I like are Gold and Biotechs where risks can be higher.


Here are a few terms:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/crGlossary.php

http://www.minebox.com.au/mining_glossary.asp



Gerry

whiteheron
12-10-2004, 09:07 PM
Thanks stolwyk

I am printing them out and will study them intently --- hopefully i will be able to increase my knowledge in this area

Mick100
12-10-2004, 09:30 PM
WH, If you want to learn some of the basics on mining companies a good read is:

Investing in Australian mining and Resource Stocks

By Allen trench & Thomas judge

I got my copy from Oz a couple of years ago
but I think it is available in NZ now - try here

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/books/


Mick

stolwyk
16-10-2004, 05:08 PM
UPDATE:
Please note that various approvals need to be obtained before mining can proceed. Resources are expanding most of the time, so any resource listings are only valid up to the date of listing.

Al metals including Gold are quoted In Situ.

In some cases, the other metals have been converted to "Gold equivalent ounces" based on $US1.45 for Copper and $US6 for silver. Gold is assumed at $US415/ounce.

TSX is the Canadian TORONTO exchange. A Warrant is expressed thus: WT, eg NG.WT
Supply of warrants can decrease over time and this may result in some "uneven" trading.

So, summarizing, what type of stock did I select?
1. I prefer the North of Canada and Atlaska where the big deposits are. Costs are low per ounce and there often are metal credits as well. There are no souvereignty problems although agreements need to be made with native tribes.

Canada is pro mining while Alaska is even more so: Their program: "Roads to resources" pays for new roads and bridges.

Nova Gold is well known for making agreements with the Alaskan Govt and tribes and was therefore selected as a partner by Placer Dome on their 25 mill + ounces gold Donlin Creek resources. (The latter was defined after drilling of 2 km with another 8 km of that trend still to be explored.

2. I kept clear of companies who didn't have an aggressive expansion policy.

3. I went for mass and these had to be exploration companies where the share price curve can be the most positive ( increase of price) while the resources are rapidly increasing.

Finally, the companies tend to show different characteristics, eg the state of progress made.

So we have:
NDM.TSX: At least 3 years to go before mining can start on a massive scale. Few shares. At the moment resources are 27 mill ounces of gold and 16.5 bill pounds of copper. The Equivalent is a total of 84.6 mill ounces gold resources.

NG.TSX: Start mining in 2006, followed by a much larger mine in 2007, then another one and a joint ventured massive mine in 2008.

Few shares. The resource is 17 mill ounces of gold, some 100 mill ounces of silver and 7.7 bill pounds of copper. About 2 mill ounces of gold can be added each year while drilling proceeds.
The last resource statement was in May and I expect 2 mill ounces to add before Dec 31.

The Equivalent in May was a total of 45.3 mill ounces resources.

WRM.TSX: It is a producer and buys up mines to increase ounces. (Has $US200 mill cash and $US300 mill credit). It also explores. Has quite a lot of shares but little need for new dilution. Top Management and rapid expansion; Likes to buy cheap. No hedging.

Resource (probable, measured and indicated) about 11 mill ounces of gold, 33 mill ounces of silver and has copper. Has been mentioned as a takeover candidate.

NCM, an Australian producer and expanding quickly. Has hedging. A very large company with very low costs coming up shortly. Resources 58 mill ounces of gold and a massive amount of copper. I have NCM.

SEA.TSX: Few shares, one or two key projects, prefers not to run a mine themselves. I don't have SEA.

NNO.TSX: Large copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry deposit and 12.5% stake in ALUMBRERA.
Their deposit AQUA RICA in Argentina has about 10 mill ounces gold and 18 bill pounds copper. With say Gold at $US415 and Copper at $US1.45, the equivalent total gold resource would be about 72.9 mill ounces gold.

NEW: ITF.TSX: A Canadian junior explorer with promise. Share price moving up lately. Shares: 25.5 mill, other:15.8 mill. Diluted: 41.3 mill. Share price CAN35.5 cents.

The mentioned companies have a thread on this site. Most companies are traded in NY as well.


Gerry
Holds NDM; NG.WT; WRM.WT; NNO.WT; NCM; ITF.
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
31-10-2004, 06:01 PM
Now with the US elections coming up it is time to look at the golds again- See previous post.

Soon, I'll be putting some prices next to these explorers.

Gerry

stolwyk
06-11-2004, 09:25 AM
UPDATE WITH PRICES.

So, summarizing, what type of stock did I select?
1. I prefer the north of Canada and Atlaska where the big deposits are. Costs are low per ounce and there often are metal credits as well.

2. I kept clear of companies who didn't have an aggressive expansion policy.

3. I went for mass and these had to be exploration companies where the share price curve can be the most positive (increase of price) while the resources are rapidly increasing.

Finally, the companies tend to show different characteristics, eg the state of progress made.
Please note that various approvals need to be obtained before mining can proceed.
Resources are expanding most of the time, so any resource listings are only valid up to the date of listing.

Al metals including Gold are quoted In Situ. In some cases, the other metals have been converted to "Gold equivalent ounces" based on $US1.45 for Copper and $US6 for silver. Gold is assumed at $US415/ounce.

See websites below for Capital structures and Warrant Conversion time/cost.
Except for NCM (Australia), all other companies are Canadian companies. The latter are quoted on the TSX or Canadian TORONTO exchange while most are quoted on the AMEX as well. Prices of these Canadians are in $CAN. A Warrant is expressed thus: WT, eg NG.WT.
_________________________________________

SHARES:
1. NDM: Shares: 45 mill. Fully diluted: 52.3 mill. Cash on 17 Aug: $10 mill. Share price: $6.27. Prebble deposit to be drilled in 2004, already 169 holes drilled before. Copper and Gold. Equivalent ounces of Gold: 84.6 mill. Several studies this year are being done. I believe, a BFS could be completed in 2005; mining to start in 2007?

2. NG: Shares: 62.8 mill; Unlisted Options: 6.6 mill. Warrants (NG.WT): 3.6 mill, to pay $7.0 to convert before 1 Oct. 2008. Fully diluted: 73 mil. Cash $60 mill on 1 July. Share price: $8.17. NG.WT: $3.40. Copper, Silver and Gold. Equivalent ounces of gold: 45.3 mill. BSF: 2005. To start mining in 2006. (100,000 ounces.), Total cash and production costs $US200/ounce.

By 2007 (Gnome and Galore Creek), about 370,000 ounces of gold, 200 mill lbs copper and 1.8 mill ounces of silver/year could be produced per year. Equivalent ounces of gold: 1.09 mill. Massive Galore Creek deposit: Total production and cash costs CAN15 cents for copper, using Gold as a credit or minus, yes - CAN$180 ounce if Copper is used as a credit.

By 2009, about 600,000 ounces of Gold, 200 mill lbs of Copper and 1.8 mill ounces of Silver could be produced. Equivalent ounces: 1.32 mill.

3. WRM.TSX: It is a producer and buys up mines to increase ounces. (Has $US200 mill cash and $US300 mill credit). It also explores. Has quite a lot of shares but little need for new dilution. Top Management and rapid expansion; Likes to buy cheap. No hedging.

Resource (probable, measured and indicated) about 11 mill ounces of gold, 33 mill ounces of silver and has copper. Has been mentioned as a takeover candidate.

4. NCM: An Australian producer and expanding quickly. Has hedging. A very large company with very low costs coming up shortly. Resources 58 mill ounces of gold and a massive amount of copper.

5. NNO: Shares: 110.9 mill shares and 53.2 mill reserved units, consisting of about 41 mill Warrants (NNO.WT), to convert on May 30, 2007 at $1.65. The rest will be Company Options to Management. Fully diluted: 164.15 mill. Cash (May) $US41 mill . Share price: $3.38. NNO.WT: $1.80. Copper and Gold: Equivalent ounces of gold: 72.9 mill. Close to a BFS but mining date is not certain.

6. ITF: A Canadian junior explorer. Shares: 25.5 mill, other:15.8 mill. Diluted: 41.3 mill.
__________________________________________

WEBSITES:
NDM:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20597&SearchTerms=NDM

NG:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20182&SearchTerms=Nova,Gold

WRM:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20216&SearchTerms=WRM

NCM:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20337&SearchTerms=NCM

NNO:
http://www.share

Mick100
06-11-2004, 08:50 PM
Gerry

I'm interested to know what stage these canadian exploration companies are at.

Have they completed or in the proccess of doing bankable feasability studies.

It's all very well having lots of ounces but if the grade is too low or the geology is too challenging these ounces may not be able to be mined profitably.

Having large indicated resources sounds good but it can cost an awful lot of money to move them into the infered and proven resources which must be done before mining can begin. cheers


Mick

stolwyk
06-11-2004, 10:31 PM
Hi Mick,

I am afraid you need to make the decision. The websites will give you all the info you need. I would favour NCM IMHO although they have been hedging-the Telford startup and as a takeover prospect.

BTW Large resources do matter even if the mining is some 2 years away: the Valuation of the Resource will move upward when the gold price moves up.

On an annual basis, my profit would have been 112%, and the gold price hadn't really started to move yet.

Mind you, there could be some good Aussie companies as well.

Cheers,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
07-11-2004, 05:30 PM
I hadn't included another 1.7% gain in currency profits

A couple of good sites:

Jim Puplava interviews Frank Barbera (Date 6 Nov 2004). I do agree with much Frank says. (HotC has discussed many facets previously and will continue to do so).

Jim and Frank are well known; Jim's research is excellent and his Storm Series are very much appreciated:

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Barbera.html
________________________________________

For those who want the metal, the Perth Mint, owned by the WA Govt:

http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/default.asp

Suggest you refer to the data at the bottom of the page. There is a contact address.

Here is another site:
http://www.cyberhaven.com/advertising/perthmint/


Gerry

stolwyk
09-11-2004, 10:12 AM
THE PHASES OF A GOLD BOOM. Part 1.

Gold is held by many Institutions, eg Banks, funds and investors, either big or small.

There are a number of phases in a bull period:

1. The Discovery phase which we have at the moment: It is best to get Investors familiar with the metal, how it is traded, the advantages and disadvantages of holding the metal and goldstocks.

The different types of gold stocks, where to obtain the metal and gold stocks and prices. The conversion of US gold prices to Australian values (Kitco).

The different ways of investment, including ETF's (Exchange traded funds)

Some easily understood economic theory.

It is not a good idea to overemphasize prices obtainable at the apex of a bull run because it may be counter productive.

Instead it should be shown that gold and silver can be very good investments at a certain time.

At the end of this phase, there is more publicity from different sources.

2. Widespread acceptance of gold as an investment.
At this point, the metal is being bought more than before, one is not considered to be fool talking about gold. Something is occurring which drives up the price of gold.

Acceptance is easier if sufficient time has been spent on item 1. The discussion now ranges from companies to select, souvereignty risk, location and other risks.

In the meantime articles and discussion about different methods of investments, the $US and perhaps other currencies are worthwhile discussion items.

Gold is now taking a prominent place in Press sources.

The price of gold is rising.

3. The flight to safety.
Some countries will come into focus because of an extraordinary uptake of the metal due to the currency being eroded or for any other reason.

This may have a chain effect and as a result, investors want more gold either for profit purposes or to cover their other investments or both.

Gold and silver now become frequent topics and a lot more posts appear.

All facets of the gold/silver industry are being discussed by various channels at certain times.

The gold price increases faster because of world wide demand. Retracements do occur.

4. The Apex.
If this comes about, then gold has its own momentum. There are always speculators but now their activities increase.

Prices rise at a phenominal rate. Fortunes are made. Previously little regarded mining stocks suddenly have an exceptional value. Many takeovers are made at too high prices.

Investors are not worth talking to, unless they have at least some metal or gold stocks.

Gold is now taking a prime place in publicity.

5. Correction-Finding a price equilibrium.
On the markets, demand at too high prices is finally met while the supply is continuing. This results in a retracement and its severity depends on the degree of over valuation of the metal as decided by the precious metals markets.

In that case, many people who joined in too late could lose a fortune. Others will see their profits cut back.
Gold and silver will finally find a price equilibrium.

Gerry

stolwyk
11-11-2004, 09:30 PM
THE PHASES OF A GOLD BOOM--Part 2

At the moment gold is $433.90 and USD is 84.40. the latter had a low of 83.97.

It could be a slow process getting the USD below 80 cents because the Europeans want to be competitive.

They didn't like Bush his spending, tax cuts, twin deficits and his increasing the money supply at a very high rate. Neither did they like him to be in Iraq and fear more flow-on effects.

Their Central Banks did support the US govt with Bond raising. Anyway, they won't tolerate a low dollar. Also, the decline needs to be gradual to accommodate trade.

That puts Bush on the spot as he has no objection to a lower dollar so as to be more competitive and reduce the trade deficit. To do that, the dollar needs to be lowered to perhaps *well below* 75 cents according to comment. (77.2 cents was the lowest ever).

Of course, the deficits are still there and the US will need to act soon. They have the whiphand, so to speak: should the Central Banks support the $USD too much, then theoretically, the US could offer more dollars to the market in return for much wanted foreign exchange.

That idea wouldn't make too many friends if that became known. Obviously, it would be newly issued currency too!
___________________________________

The situation in Iraq is going from bad to worse, IMHO.

While the US troops are fighting within the cities, guerillas are attacking troops in the country side; that is a very expensive and risky proposition on both sides.

The big prize: THE IRAQI OILFIELDS, of course.

Suffice to say that the deteriorating situation in Iraq must help the gold price.


Gerry

stolwyk
12-11-2004, 11:26 AM
GOLD: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR 2004.

1. SUPPLY for 2003 (Tonnes): http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

This shows that supply from all sources was 3865 tonnes in 2003. One item is the "Official Sector" sales at 617 tonnes. This will be less in 2004, I believe, best estimate is about 400 tonnes, but should the price of gold go much higher, then the CB (Central Banks) could become net buyers. So this item will be difficult to judge.

Dehedging will accelerate and could be another 15 tonnes more.

Mine supply was at 2593 tonnes in 2003. South Africa: they have already been heavily affected by the strong rand and will supply less gold this year.

Reports indicate that the world mine production supply could be less than in 2003. (Increases of supply in the next 2 years is forecasted to be slow, if any).

So, overall, the supply for 2004 could be less, say 3600 tonnes compared with 3865 tonnes in 2003.

2. DEMAND for 2003 (Tonnes).
This was 3230 tonnes last year. Manufacturing has increased in 2004.
Investment demand has picked up and could do even more so in the future due to the overall world situation: US twin deficits and the lower $US, Iraq and other problems.

The overall demand could be some 390 tonnes more for 2004; so, the 2004 demand could be about 3620 tonnes which is $400 tonnes higher than last year's and 20 tonnes higher than supply.

If there is a sudden hefty deterioration in world economics before Jan, then the overall demand could be higher still.


Demand by China, India and SEA. This from HOMMELBERG, Nov 2004:
"Just China itself will contribute considerably to the expected increase in demand for Gold. Last year the Honk Kong edition of Friday's China Daily quoted the Bank of China's bullion guru saying : "local consumers could pour $36 billion into the metal, equivalent to around 2,950 tonnes, or more than one year of supply, at current prices."

Add to that increasing demand from India and 2005 promises to be a very interesting year for investors in gold / gold stocks. This, combined with increasing demand arising from the US- and world problems could result in a very powerful cocktail.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
12-11-2004, 11:16 PM
THE FUTURE OF GOLD.

AB, you mentioned these points:
1. The oil scare looks to be over. The US will have enough heating oil for the winter.
2. This means lower oil prices, which is not good for gold.
3. High gold prices have reduced jewellery demand for gold in places like India.
4. The US economy is still growing well. 300,000 new jobs were created.
5. All in all this is a bullish scenario for US stocks, the US dollar and bearish for gold.
____________________________________
RE
2. There is a loose correlation of gold and oil prices. Suffice to say that gold has to rise quite a large amount before any old ratio is restored. In any case, it takes more notice of a lower dollar or any other event.

Oil has a high profile and as soon as prices are too high, political pressure is applied. Not so with GOLD, it is not a direct necessity, the higher the price, the more calls for a still better one.

3. The SUPPLY and DEMAND equation is discussed in (A): See previous post: GOLD: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR 2004.

The jewelry demand has risen by 6.1% and 7.5% in the first 2 quarters. Please prove that this has gone down. All I know is that thanks to the WGC's efforts, it is increasing.

One mustn't forget that as gold prices rise, Investment demand can quickly rise too and could be at very high levels the more prices rise. In the first 2 quarters, it rose by 27.5% and 40.7%. so it will rise much more in the last 2 quarters of 2004. (See "A")

I mentioned in (A), the pending gold demand from China and India, the contracting supply in the next couple of years and that demand could outstrip supply in 2004, unless abnormal situations could lead to a still higher demand.

These may range from continued fighting in Iraq (Foreign fighters entering the country), damage to pipelines and installations, any other damage to countries or whatever.

The outlook for gold in the supply/demand equation is very good, IMHO.

5. The US has no objection to a lower dollar so as to be more competitive and to reduce the trade deficit. However, the US has been told by the UE that the latest fall is enough for the time being.

That has put a floor under it, but the US wil certainly not raise the dollar. It just needs to come down rather quickly IMHO so as to bring the trade deficit down. Just for now the US is cooperating with the EU CB (Central Bank). We need to wait for developments.

You didn't mention the US twin deficits and the massive total debt. That alone wil be support for gold if it needed that.

As to markets, there have been many overseas comments that overall share prices are much too high and I can see the Dow/S&P coming down before long.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
13-11-2004, 10:18 AM
The dollar fell to 83.71 and the gold price reached 439.20. It is 437.40 at the moment.

The selected Canadian explorers have gained overnight. NCM did well yesterday: Telfer is getting closer to the start-up date.

GERBINO is well known for his realistic outlook:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Gerbino/nov112004.html


Gerry

stolwyk
14-11-2004, 09:33 AM
SIX EXPLORERS- PROFIT ASSESSMENT (See also page 1, Nov 6, 10.25 am).

Comp----Bought---Price---Latest---Profit--Percent
NDM----29/9/04---5.25----7.05------1.80----34.2
NG.WT---6/5/04---2.25----4.05------1.80----80.0
WRM.WT12/7/04---2.35----2.67------0.32----13.6

NCM.AX--7/9/04--14.92---17.87------2.95----19.8
NNO.WT-6/10/04---1.72----1.95------0.23----13.3
ITF------27/7/04---0.26----0.34------0.08----30.8

The mean increase is 32% (27% on Nov 5). The mean date of buying: 9 Aug. 2004. (96 days ago) So, I had these stocks for 26.3% of a full year.

Five of these stocks are Canadian with its strong currency -On 9 Aug. $CAN=$A1.069 and 1.090 on 13 Nov, thus an addtional 1.7% from currency conversion should be added. NCM is an Aussie stock

NCM, NG.WT and WRM.WT are potential takeover/merger candidates, IMHO.
NCM is close to starting up TELFER.

Current Gold price: $437.40; $US: 83.71

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
14-11-2004, 04:44 PM
I did refer to the reluctance of the EU to have the dollar lowered too quickly, while the US wants to.

Here Wallenwein is providing an explanation:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/wallenwein111204.html


Gerry

stolwyk
15-11-2004, 01:11 PM
Gold may rise for fifth week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001065&sid=aRIkKWgJsK_4&refer=movers_by_index

Extract:
"The World Gold Council's proposed offering of shares, which would trade on the New York Stock Exchange, follows sales of other gold investment funds backed by the gold council and listed on stock exchanges in London, Australia and Johannesburg.

The offering in New York may boost investor demand for gold by as much as 550 tons, or about 18 million ounces, in the first year, London-based research company Virtual Metals said in August. Global net-investment demand for gold last year was 600 tons, said GFMS Ltd., a London research company".
_____________________________
Comment:

These ETF's (exchange traded funds) and the increasing Chinese demand should put a new floor under the gold price.

It seems that Demand will comfortably outstrip Supply next cal. year and once this becomes known, it will limit any retracements.

The WGC (World Gold Council) may also decide to form 3 more ETF's I think: Japan, China and India. (Perhaps Canada may follow as well).

If that could be organized in the calender year 2005, all 3 should be boomers in these gold hungry countries.

Assume these ETF's are formed, then Investor demand will be huge overall.

It seems to me that Gold/gold stock investors could be having a nice 2005 year coming up.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
15-11-2004, 06:27 PM
DIMITRI SPECK: Golden Christmas Rally:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/speck111404.html

miner
15-11-2004, 06:32 PM
Can think of a more apt heading for this thread.

Packersoldkidney
15-11-2004, 08:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by miner

Can think of a more apt heading for this thread.


APT? Are they on the TSX or the NASDAQ?

stolwyk
15-11-2004, 10:09 PM
Gold: $439. $US:83.77 oil:47.41

These can be obtained from:
http://www.ino.com/?af
_______________________________________

Thanks Shikari
Sun Nov 14, 7:55 AM ET
By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...isreverberating

During a routine sale of U.S. Treasury bonds in early September, one of the essential pillars holding up the economy suddenly disappeared.

Foreigners have been regularly buying nearly half of all debt issued by the U.S. government. On Sept. 9, for the first time that anyone could remember, they stayed home.

"Thoughts of panic flickered out there," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.

The foreigners returned in force at the next Treasury auction, and Sept. 9 was quickly dismissed as an aberration.

But the episode demonstrated how much the U.S. economy is dependent on other countries to bankroll its free-spending ways. That fragility is becoming even more precarious because of recent declines in the U.S. dollar to multiyear lows, some economists say.

Amid worries about bulging U.S. budget and trade deficits, the greenback dropped last week to a record low against the 5-year-old euro, a 12-year low against the Canadian dollar and a nine-year low against an index of major currencies. Many analysts don't see anything that will stop the decline.

A cheaper dollar reduces the value of American securities, making them less attractive to foreign investors. That could eventually precipitate what Robbins called "the doomsday scenario" — Japan and China not only refusing to buy U.S. bonds, but selling some of their $1.3 trillion in reserves.

The only way Uncle Sam could then find new customers for its IOUs would be by raising interest rates. And although higher rates are good for savers, they would be disastrous for a country weaned on cheap credit.

"Sometime soon, the falling dollar is going to show up in rising inflation, rising interest rates and a falling standard of living," said Harry Chernoff, an economist with Pathfinder Capital Advisors. "The housing and mortgage markets, which benefited the most from declining interest rates over the past few years, are likely to feel the most pain."

Not everyone agrees that suffering is imminent. The National Assn. of Manufacturers calls the dollar doomsayers "all but hysterical." Manufacturers and produce growers like a cheap dollar because it makes their products more affordable in foreign markets.

Even some foreigners like the low dollar. China has pegged its currency to the dollar. A weak greenback means a weak yuan, making Chinese goods cheaper in foreign markets and fueling the nation's economic boom.

To most American consumers, a falling dollar is more an annoyance than cause for alarm. It raises the price of a cup of coffee to outlandish levels during a Paris vacation, and may cause second thoughts about buying a more expensive Volkswagen.

But a number of economists and academics say there are real reasons for concern. If the dollar falls too far too quickly, they say, those all-important foreign investors will abandon the U.S. in favor of stabler places.

Indeed, there are signs that such an exodus might have already started.

In August, the most recent period for which there's data, foreign private investors sold $2 billion more in U.S. stocks than they bought, the Treasury said. Meanwhile, they dumped $4 billion more in government bonds than they purchased.

"A run for the exits could happen any day, that's for sure," said C. Fred Bergsten, author of "Dollar Overvaluation and the World Economy" and director of the Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank.

Such a prospect creates a tricky balancing act for policy makers. As long as the dollar devalues in a slow and orderly way, and doesn't trigger panic selling of American securities, Bush administration officials appear to be comfortable with the fall. As they see it, the benefits of boosting the economy through higher exports outweigh the drawbacks.

The

stolwyk
16-11-2004, 09:50 PM
Some interesting US items tonight:

http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/11/day/16/daily/index.html

whiteheron
17-11-2004, 09:42 AM
stolwyk

Man , you sure post a lot !!!!

Current score on this subject according to my count is

stolwyk--------23
all others-----13

stolwyk
17-11-2004, 09:51 AM
The big news is that foreign investors have taken up US securities well.

The PPI (Producer Price Index)rose 1.7% in Oct against 0.3% expected.

Store sales are doing well.

The gold price rose after the PPI was released and hit $440.8. It is now $439.5. Oil: $46.20 and the USD: 83.87 cents.

It does show a virtually nil correlation between gold and oil at present and gold has successfully overcome the effect of a cheaper oil price.

Gold prices are rising because the market is afraid of more inflation. The FED could raise interest rates to cut back the demand but that may have repercussions on the debt market (mortgages) and could raise the USD which would reduce any existing competitive export advange. As mentioned, it wants a lower dollar.

The current situation is reasonably good for gold as the deficits are continuing and the war is spreading in Iraq. Overall Investment demand looks good.

I did mention that there was to be the launching of 1 ETF (Exchange traded gold fund, however the good news is that there will be 2 launched in New York. This ought to promote the demand for gold.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
17-11-2004, 09:17 PM
GOLD $ 442.7 WE HAVE LIFT OFF!

USD 83.68, somewhat down but I believe the gold price has gone up further than that.

Oil 45.87

miner
17-11-2004, 09:30 PM
GOLD $ 442.5 WE HAVE RAMP OFF!

USD 83.68, somewhat down but I believe the gold price has gone up further than that.

Oil 45.87

stolwyk
17-11-2004, 09:36 PM
Gold climbs to new 16-year peaks on ailing dollar

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml?type=goldMktRpt


______________________________________

THe WCG's ETF to list between Nov 23-26.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=7104


Barclays is also listing another one.

Gerry

stolwyk
18-11-2004, 10:44 AM
Gold $443.9, $US 83.31 and oil is $47.12 (Gold touched $445.05 in London.)

Oil is now in step with the lower dollar and is 47.12. (Was $46.20 before the recent $US correction) As the $US goes down, expect it to rise IMHO.

What does concern me is that the US Bond demand was amply filled by foreigners; one would think that with a falling dollar, there would be less demand.

_________________________________________

Gold ETF expected to launch Thursday
Wednesday, November 17, 2004 9:40:03 PM
http://www.afxpress.com


BOSTON (AFX) -- The first exchange-traded fund investing in gold bullion will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, said sources familiar with the situation. Called StreetTracks Gold Shares, the ETF will trade under the symbol "GLD" with the World Gold Council as the sponsor. Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion, and shares should be priced at about 1/10th price of a troy ounce of gold but will deviate over time since the 0.4 percent expense ratio will come out of selling underlying gold to pay expenses of the trust

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com

For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com
________________________________

Another view: US Dollar Bear Notoriety:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/hamilton111204.html

stolwyk
18-11-2004, 06:54 PM
A further steep decline in the dollar seems inevitable

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3329902


THE GODDESS OF LOVE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/kannan111704.html

Extract:
"It is estimated, as a result, that Indian families own anywhere between 9,000 and 15,000 tons of gold. At today's dollar value, that is about $115-192 billion worth of gold...approximately 10% of the entire world's supply!"

Very wise people, don't you think. It is best to give them an ETF as well. That way, they'll be investing even more!

Gerry

stolwyk
18-11-2004, 09:29 PM
THE CASE FOR SILVER:

SILVER POISED TO SKYROCKET:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/stein111604.html

Morgan:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/morgan111404.html

I do believe that ETF's will lock in some of the silver available. Whether silver will skyrocket will depend on the amount of free silver available.

Gerry
Holds BSG
The gold Company WRM.TSX, one of my 6 explorers has spun off a silver company SWT.TSX (100% silver); however at this stage, it is somewhat expensive, I think.

Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
19-11-2004, 10:57 AM
David Morgan

CHINA'S SECRET SILVER SOLUTION - A SPECIAL REPORT
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Morgan/nov182004.html

U.S. Gold-Backed Shares Climb in New York Debut
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aLCNN_yJef1Y
_________________________________________

Comment on US data:
Although the CPI rose, there were some positive indicators, eg increase in indust. production and housing starts which pushed the gold price down for the time being.


However, the US still has the problem of deficits and debt which won't go away. The war in Iraq is proceeding.

And it doesn't want a firming dollar either (Firmed to 83.79, up about 0.5 cents).

The gold price is currently $442.3 and oil is 46.38


Gerry

stolwyk
19-11-2004, 07:28 PM
THE CLAYTON DOLLAR RISE, IT IS NOT WANTED IMHO.

After the US data last night, the dollar rose from 83.3 to 83.75

Unfortunately, the US doesn't want a stronger dollar and will try to get it down further. I assume that could be done in the next few days as they don't have the luxury of waiting (trade deficit must come down, exports increased and employment encouraged).

Gold dropped from a high of 445 to 442 but is increasing lately to 443.

I couldn't see a reason for the fall in the gold price as the dollar has to come down anyway. I think that some in the market understand that (CBS won't) and hence Gold wil be looked after.

That is my opinion,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
20-11-2004, 09:22 AM
GOLD: DECOUPLING FROM USD AND CURRENCIES.

INTRODUCTION:
I want to start with mentioning Gold (metal) and GOLD STOCKS.

1. Gold (Metal). Complaints have been made that in $A, this hasn't really risen at all. Good point and that is why I don't have any.
However, responsible and skilled commentators have pointed out that it can be a better investment than gold stocks in the latter part of a gold cycle.

2. Gold stocks. Not all gold stocks do well at any time but well chosen ones do. There are 2 reasons for that:
2.1: When gold rises in $US, the market will revalue the gold assets of the Company. If it has large assets, then the share price needs to be positively adjusted. This adjustment normally is greater than any rise in the gold price expressed in $A.

2.2 Well selected gold stocks improve because of exploration which increases the gold assets, the start up of a mine and anything else which is positive:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/031902.htm

The sum total of these 2 positive factors can lead to some very good increases in the gold stock price and therefore I prefer gold stocks with large assets in safe areas: Alaska, Canada, Australa. (Canada has a very robust economy).


DECOUPLING gold price from currencies. This involves the pricing of gold, be it positive or negative, irrespective of currency movements.
It is clear that EXCESS DEMAND plays an important part. The SUPPLY / DEMAND picture: See page 2, 12 Nov: GOLD: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR 2004.

There are more ETF's (Gold and silver Exchange traded funds) being formed. These will certainly lock in some of these metals while the high Rand will reduce South African production and hence lower still more the expected reduced world supply of gold in the next couple of years.

So on this basis, there could be EXCESS DEMAND but it needs to be sufficiently strong for decoupling. That requires Investors to be strongly wanting some gold for Investment in preference to currencies (Note that Investors generally hold *part* of their investment in gold and could still hold other currencies).

We are getting closer to Phase 2 of the gold cycle: See page 2, 9 Nov: THE PHASES OF A GOLD BOOM. Part 1.

When Phase 2 occurs (Say at $450-460 / ounce), demand would normally increase further, causing more excess demand. There are far more Investors and there will be more gold being locked up. Thus the supply can be squeezed.

This in itself can cause decoupling particularly as US woes start to affect other countries who in turn will invest in gold to hedge their currency and investments, thus reducing free gold/silver supply much further. Depreciating the US currency would increase the US gold demand.

If China does not fully cooperate with any proposed currency settings, then there is little hope of significantly reducing the US Trade deficit and this will certainly increase the US demand for gold as the USD will move further down than originally anticipated.
And so will the posssibility of US or other country's Stagflation.

Continuing wars or massive sabotage will have the same effect. It is noted that the war in Iraq has spread and is continuing. The possibility of sabotage to US and its allies' assets has greatly increased. Any attack will be sudden. There are problems in Afghanistan (drugs) and in the Middle East.

There is a question mark over who will control Iraqi oil assets in the future and will the country be subdivided.

Obviouslly, major problems, eg with derivatives (Eg. "lent out" gold being called back but doesn't exist) will automatically push the Investor into Phase 4, the Apex of the gold boom cycle and gold will decouple anyway as the implications and mistrust can affect other currencies.

It is difficult to exactly pinpoint when decoupling can meaningfully start, but the US financial outlook is bad even if it were being supported by other CB's, IMHO.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
20-11-2004, 04:37 PM
Please refer to my yesterday's post:

THE CLAYTON DOLLAR RISE, IT IS NOT WANTED IMHO.

Yes, the US wanted a lower dollar alright and after a few hours, gold rose $5.30 to $448.2/ounce, now $446.7, USD is now 83.31 cents and oil is $48.9/b.

As the USD goes down, oil can be expected to rise and the Petro countries are talking about raising the price also.
_____________________________________

France to sell up to 600 tonnes of gold over 5 years
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/076680d4-3a9b-11d9-aa4d-00000e2511c8.html

Comment: In the WGC's table, the entry for this "Official gold sector" was 617 tonnes in 2003. In the first half of this year, it was 183 tonnes.
____________________________________

Paul Van Eeden:

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov192004.html

Gerry

stolwyk
21-11-2004, 12:46 PM
AND WHAT COULD THE G20 MEETING BE DISCUSSING?

They issue official reports of course but we would be more interested in what they don't disclose.

The focus will be the US this time and these items could be discussed:

1. The desirability of lowering the USD to a certain point, with opposition of the EU members who are afraid their economies will get damaged and tipped into a recession.

2. To ensure that somehow the US 10 year bond raisings are maintained. CB's have been noted to jump in where private interest failed.

3. Discussion of the US debt and what is the US doing about it.

4. The Chinese and other countries' competitive devaluations by linking up with the USD; these countries also hold a significant amount of $USD.

5. Restrictive trade practices designed to augment the positives of the economies of certain countries.
________________________________

As to lowering the dollar, the US will propose that this is a priority for the dollar block and can't be avoided. It is designed to cut the trade deficit, increase exports (much is sourced out already) and increase participation by labour. It is designed to finally restore the health of the dollar.

They may avoid making too much reference to debt which is a major stumbling block. Members wil suggest that the US are/have been expanding the money supply at an unprecedented rate and this needs to be cut back.

If the dollar is not sufficiently depreciated, then interest rates be very firmly increased to cut back demand.

The US may counter that increasing interest rates too strongly and too quickly will throw the country in a recession, cause a lot of damage and that a deeper dollar devaluation in stages is preferred.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So, what about the gold price? Any disunity amongst IMF members will most likely be leaked to powerful interests and could wel express itself in a stronger gold price. We need to wait.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
21-11-2004, 06:45 PM
First in line debt, ie US Govt debt is $US7.4+ trillions and increasing.

Here is CLIVE MAUND:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/maund112004.html


Gerry

stolwyk
22-11-2004, 10:27 AM
A contrarion's view:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/droke111904.html

COMMENT:
It is alright to be a contrarian as long as it can be justified.

I don't think anybody can because a stronger dollar will sink the dollar in the final run and nobody wants that.

Someone else mentioned that the CB's (Central Banks) would mount an offensive to upgrade the dollar. Again wrong because all the US has to do is to throw billions of useless dollars at them and collect some foreign currency at the same time.

That may not happen but the US with its back against the wall and anxious to push its agenda, won't tolerate too much opposition.

It has this agenda:
1. Telling its people that everything is alright by not openly declaring they want a lower dollar.

2. They did say that it "should be left to the market", meaning: "we know it is going down and we won't stop it"

If they really wanted a higher dollar then the EEC (EU currency) will help them out-temporarily-by buying dollars: a low dollar is going to hit them and the EEC doesn't really want it.

There are already countries buying the US anyway eg Japan, Korea.

However, Greenspan is helping the dollar down as well.

The US needs a lower dollar because it needs to cut the Trade deficit, increase exports and promote employment.


Gerry
_________________________

The good news is that Nova Gold Warrants (One of the 6 explorers)bought on 6 May for CAN$2.25, have doubled.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
22-11-2004, 04:26 PM
FEDERAL DEBT LIMIT INCREASED:

Yesterday, the Senate approved an $800 billion increase in the federal debt limit. This raises the government's debt limit to $8.18 trillion.
_______________________________

G20 divided over dollar slide:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20041120/bs_nm/economy_g20_dc
__________________________________

Thanks Chuck: WHERE IS THE ETF's GOLD?
http://goldseek.com/

stolwyk
23-11-2004, 09:18 AM
AND WHAT HAVE THE G-20 MEETING BEEN DISCUSSING?

About what I suggested a few posts back.

I think that ought to be reasonably clear when reading the following posts where speakers from different countries had their say.

Obviously, there was friction at the G20 meeting and the highlight was the US saying that "the EEC should import more to cut the US trade deficit".

The EEC wouldn't have liked to hear that.

Both Europe and Japan agreed that the lowering of the dollar's value should be very gradual.

I am picking that with Bush penchant to get things done, it may not take as long as desired.


http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=585394

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aB3t5k6h9_Xw&refer=home

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3104912a6026,00.html



GETTING READY TO ATTACK $450:

Now $448.8;

USD: 83.18 (-0.12);

oil: $48.50 (-0.39)

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Creaking Toward $450
Monday, November 22, 2004 7:43:14 PM
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=i4512759285232238656


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
23-11-2004, 12:18 PM
I was asked about the Washington Agreement. This prescribes that a total of 500 tonnes gold per year can be sold to the market by IMF countries. (Far East countries are not that stupid; they are buying).

This comes under the catagory: "Official Sector" sales:
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

Look for the "Supply table" and see that these sales were 617 tonnes in 2003. These wil now be reduced to 500 tonnes per year.

That is not to say we may even reach that: in the first six months of this year, only 183 tonnes were sold and I estimate a total of 400 tonnes for the 2004 calender year. Countries to sell: Holland, GB, France, Switzerland. However, they may not be confirmed sellers as their opinion may change.

Readers should ignore scare tactics as this post makes it abundantly clear that "Official Sales" can only be a max. of 500 tonnes per year.

These sales will be less after a year or two as countries would have none left to sell.

On the contrary, it is possible that as China increases its gold uptake, other countries may buy back, as gold is a valid constituent of monetary reserves, as the Russians have pointed out-no, they are not selling, only buying. And so was Argentina.

Gerry

Mick100
23-11-2004, 12:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

I was asked about the Washington Agreement. This prescribes that a total of 500 tonnes gold per year can be sold to the market by IMF countries. (Far East countries are not that stupid; they are buying).

This comes under the catagory: "Official Sector" sales:
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

Look for the "Supply table" and see that these sales were 617 tonnes in 2003. These wil now be reduced to 500 tonnes per year.

That is not to say we may even reach that: in the first six months of this year, only 183 tonnes were sold and I estimate a total of 400 tonnes for the 2004 calender year. Countries to sell: Holland, GB, France, Switzerland. However, they may not be confirmed sellers as their opinion may change.

Readers should ignore scare tactics as this post makes it abundantly clear that "Official Sales" can only be a max. of 500 tonnes per year.

These sales will be less after a year or two as countries would have none left to sell.

On the contrary, it is possible that as China increases its gold uptake, other countries may buy back, as gold is a valid constituent of monetary reserves, as the Russians have pointed out-no, they are not selling, only buying. And so was Argentina.

Gerry




Could you please put the above post on the main gold thread Gerry


Thanks


Mick

stolwyk
23-11-2004, 12:38 PM
Mick,

Please tranfer it if you so wish.

Gerry

stolwyk
23-11-2004, 07:54 PM
POST 1 of 2

THE US PPI-PRODUCERS PRICE INDEX FOR FINISHED GOODS IN OCT:

Nov. 16: The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today that the seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in October (Includes food and energy; consensus 0.6%).

This gain followed a 0.1-percent rise in September and a 0.1-percent decrease in August.
____________________________________

THE US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: OCTOBER 2004

Nov. 17: CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.6 percent in October, following a 0.2 percent rise in September.

Energy costs, which had declined in each of the preceding three months after advancing sharply in the first half of the year, increased 0.6 percent in October, accounting for over half of the advance in the overall CPI-U". (Includes Food and energy; consensus 0.4%).

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The PPI is quite high and I am expecting the CPI to strengthen.

Gerry

stolwyk
23-11-2004, 11:03 PM
JAMES TURK: WHERE IS THE ETF'S GOLD?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/nov222004.html

stolwyk
24-11-2004, 10:29 AM
NY gold ends off, misses $450, as options expire -

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;BULSJ1NMOF102CRBA EKSFEY?type=goldMktRpt

Gold hit 449.50 but options expiry stopped further progress for the time being. Otherwise we would have crossed the $450 mark.

However, the current price of $447.30 looks good and with options having being rolled over, a fresh start can be made.

There is a short week in the US as well.

The USD hit a new low of 82.81 and is now 82.93 cents.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
24-11-2004, 05:08 PM
SIX EXPLORERS- PROFIT ASSESSMENT -Date 23/11/04

Comp----Bought---Price---Latest---Profit--Percent
NDM----29/9/04---5.25----6.00------0.75----14.3
NG.WT---6/5/04---2.25----4.62------2.37---105.3
WRM.WT12/7/04---2.35----2.65------0.30----12.7

NCM.AX--7/9/04--14.92---18.17------3.25----21.8
NNO.WT-6/10/04---1.72----1.92------0.20----11.6
ITF------27/7/04---0.26----0.42------0.16----61.5

The mean increase is 37.9% (32% on Nov 13). The mean date of buying: 9 Aug. 2004. (106 days ago) So, I had these stocks for 29.0% of a full year.

Five of these stocks are Canadian with its strong currency -On 9 Aug. $CAN=$A1.069 and 1.077 on 23 Nov, thus an addtional 0.6% from currency conversion should be added. NCM is an Aussie stock

NCM, NG.WT and WRM.WT are potential takeover/merger candidates, IMHO.

Current Gold price: $447.30; $US: 82.92

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

miner
24-11-2004, 05:28 PM
Still discussing with yourself I see Gerry,didn't your mum tell you that you will go blind if you play with yourself[?][:X];).

stolwyk
24-11-2004, 05:57 PM
FIFTEEN REASONS TO OWN GOLD

Gary North's REALITY CHECK

Issue 398 November 23, 2004
SOLID GOLD REASONS TO OWN GOLD

EXTRACT:
"Over a year ago, in September, 2003, John Embry published an article, "15 Reasons to Own Gold." Mr. Embry is an investment strategist with the Sprott Gold & Precious Metals Fund. As such, I suppose he is not a disinterested observer. But I am sufficiently impressed with his arguments that I think I should pass them along.

What is amazing is that this appeared over a year ago. What he said then is more relevant today. The dollar is lower. Gold is higher.

***************
1. Global Currency Debasement:
The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.

2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.

3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.

4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US dollar):
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the US, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:
US authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the US's footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.

6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand:
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional demand (jewelry, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.

7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years:
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.

8. Large Short Positions:
To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all central bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the central banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.

9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging:
Rates are low and falling. Wit

stolwyk
24-11-2004, 06:00 PM
That article in my previous post was mainly written for the US where gold is a prime commodity.
Unfortunately, increased gold prices in terms of the USD have not sufficiently expressed themselves in foreign currencies, hence I invest in Canadian explorers.

It is possible that some currencies may collapse or depreciate but the Canadian currency is highly rated after the Swiss Franc and thus is likely to come out reasonably well compared with all currencies when the going gets tough.

There are a number of potential time bombs present:
Quote:
3. "Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse
in virtually every other instance in history".

And the latest from Roach, today:
"To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings. Sustainable? Hardly.

Comment: That is if they want to buy US depreciating Bonds.
_______________________________________

Quote:
8. Large Short Positions:
"To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all central bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the central banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions".

AND

10." Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage
Financial Speculation on the Short Side:
When gold prices were continuously falling and financial
speculators could access central bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per annum), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising
gold price and declining interest rates.
__________________________

COMMENT: Summarizing the position, the Central Banks have leased out a massive supply of gold to Bullion Banks at very low interest rates.

The Bullion Banks would have sold most of it and then lent the money out at much higher rates.

With ever increasing prices of gold, the Central Banks may want some or all of the leased gold back on the stipulated date.

There is a grave suspicion that
1. Much of this gold is not anymore in the market.
2. The Central Banks won't be seeing all if not most of their gold back.
The Bullion Banks will be forced to buy back the owed gold from the market with added complications.

All this is well explained by TED BUTLER:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html

Yes, the world of gold is fascinating but will be a dangerous one for some ie Bullion Banks.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
25-11-2004, 09:34 AM
A message you may not like to hear:

Economic `Armageddon' predicted

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Meanwhile, new data about gold won't be available til Monday as the US have a long weekend. It finished on $449.3. The last session would have seen thin trading but I expect an earnest assault on $450 next week.

There was an attack on the USD last night and it is now 82.39, down about 0.5 cents.

The Euro strengthtened to 1.3178 (+0.78 cents) and there is a suspicion that the Russians are offloading USD for Euros as they intimated, they would do. The Russions are more interested in joining the Euro block.

If there is any offloading to be done, then they may as well do it now as the USD has got to come down anyway. (Rather than later when the USD is at the bottom).

Gerry

stolwyk
26-11-2004, 11:44 AM
THE USA: CROSSING THE RUBICON

POST 1 of 4

It is difficult to discuss gold without referring to the USD. Hence, having both on one thread is a very distinct advantage.

During the past 9 months or so much material has been supplied by others; together, the contents paint a discouraging picture of the Bush and Greenspan's financial tenures.

I believe the US will hit the following flashpoints in this order:
1. The depreciation of the dollar and the proposed cutback of the trade deficit.
2. To have CB's and others to fund the Current Account deficit.
3. To restore the Budget to manageable proportion and to reduce debt.

1: The depreciation of the dollar and the proposed cutback of the trade deficit.
That devaluation is in full swing now. Opinions differ on how far the dollar will have to fall to materially increase exports, cut back on the trade deficit, promote import substitution and production at home as well as employment. (Outsourcing to overseas firms is continuing however). Needed falls to 70 cents have been mentioned.

However, already the EEC and Japan are complaining that the current depreciation is too fast. I think that once the USD has fallen to 80 cents-if not before- both will ask that action be taken to not lower it further for quite some time.

The growth rate of Europe is rather anaemic and a too deep fall of the dollar could throw them into a recession, I believe. They will increase trade with other countries (eg China) to divert too much backlash from the US but it wil take time.
I also think that the growh of the Euro currency is best served by allowing it time to fulfill that role.

I believe that any fall to 80 cents is not enough and will simply defer any pending massive damage to the USD.
At that level, exports to the US will fall - demand falls - as most currencies would have sharply risen and hence it wil have a profound effect on countries who export a lot to the US.

A fall of the USD to 75 cents would be a even more painful and may not be be tolerated, I believe, as it will be too great a strain on other currencies and economies.

Suffice to say that all eyes will be on the speed and depth the USD wil reach. If it is too great, then recourse could be taken to various protection measures by other countries.

Much depends of course on the attitude of certain trading nations as well: China, Japan and others with regard to pegging currencies. Falls of the USD will be speeded up by countries preferring to use the Euro (Disposal of the USD) and having prominent contracts written in that currency instead.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
26-11-2004, 11:55 AM
THE USA: CROSSING THE RUBICON

POST 2 of 4

Depreciating the USD comes at a price as many prices of goods bought will be more in USD, hence it wil cause inflation. That may not be a problem to Bush if he wants to reduce debt over time.

International Trade Deficit (A negative balance of trade, i.e. imports exceed exports. opposite of trade surplus) was $57.3 bill in Sept, running at $600 bill per year. This is high.


2. To have CB's and others to fund the Current Account deficit. (The net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments, between countries). This was $US 166.2 Bill for the 2nd quarter of 2004. It is running at close to $700 bill per year or between 5-6% of GDP which according to commentators is dangerously high.

"Foreigners, who finance the gap by investing in U.S. assets, held half of the $3.8 trillion in marketable Treasury securities outstanding in September, up from 34 percent in mid-2001, according to Treasury figures".

Stephen Roach: "To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day. That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings. Sustainable? Hardly".

The world finances this deficit in the form of US Bonds. China and Japan Govts have been chief contributors by now. And so have been Funds and individuals. The question is wil they keep contributing in face of a depreciating USD? The solution would be to increase interest rates sufficiently to entice them.

It is quite possible that interest rates are increased at each offering till the USD has found a bottom. This is bound to raise interest rates all round and will affect the massive debt owed by the US consumer.

Add to that the infationary effect of the depreciating dollar and continued high oil prices and we are looking at quite aggressive PPI's (Producer Price Index) and CPI's (Consumer Price Index).

The flow on could affect assets in a big way. While exporting companies share prices could increase, others won't. If there is a severe downturn of the DOW, then the overall cumulative negative effect must be considerable.

We need to wait for what will unfold.

Gerry

stolwyk
26-11-2004, 12:01 PM
THE USA: CROSSING THE RUBICON

POST 3 OF 4

3. To restore the Budget to manageable proportion and to reduce debt.
BUDGET DEFICIT: The amount by which a government, company, or individual's spending exceeds its income over a particular period of time. also called deficit or deficit spending. opposite of budget surplus.

The total deficit for the government's fiscal year ended Sept. 30 was a record $412.6 billion, up 9.4 percent from $377.1 billion in fiscal 2003. The federal government funded the deficit by borrowing $379.6 billion from the public, up 1.6 percent from $373.5 billion in the prior fiscal year.

While his predecessor ran a surplus, the first for many years, Bush has quickly reversed that by various means and incentives. The deficit for Oct. was $57.3 mill. (The war in Iraq costs about $80 bill or more per year)

The current Govt debt is about $7.45 trillions but Bush has just obtained clearance to lift this ceiling by another $800 bill.

4. SUMMARY.
The three deficits:
(A). International Trade Deficit was $57.3 bill in Sept, running at $600 bill per year.

(B): The Current Account Deficit: This was $US 166.2 Bill for the 2nd quarter of 2004 and running at 700 Bill per year or between 5 and 6% of GDP. It is mainly financed by foreigners. It is far too high. Stephen Roach: "To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day. That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings".

(C). The Budget Deficit: $413 Bill in the year to Sept, could be $500 Bill this new year (The war in Iraq costs more than $80 bill).

Expect a solid dose of inflation and much higher interest rates IMHO.


SOURCES:
2004 Economic Events And Analysis:
http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/08/day/27/daily/index.html

Click on : "RELEASE DATES". This lists the dates of economic releases. Click on: TODAY's CALENDER: This lists this week's events.

Other sources: It is best not to use Kitco's numbers but instead use these:
The GOLD PRICE: http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
The USD Index and CRUDE OIL: http://www.ino.com/?af

Current numbers: USD index: 82.01. GOLD: $451.25 (Did hit $452.75); CRUDE OIL : $49.44

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
27-11-2004, 10:29 AM
With New York being out of action on Thursday and Friday (Thanksgiving weekend), action shifted to the Far East.

The USD Index sank to 81.53, recovered to 82.2 (Japan buying?) but is now 81.78

The Euro rose on both evenings and is now close to 2 cents higher than a couple of days ago and is about 1.33.

Gold easily overcame heavy resistance at 450 and finished on 452.75 Thursday and increased to 454.9 yesterday evening to finally contract to 451.9.

Clearly, USD was sold in a big way and it was originally attributed to Russia. However, it turned out to be China according to one report.
That was difficult to comprehend as Chinese holdings are about $US500 bill or so and I couldn't see them pushing that money through without the USD going much lower.

This morning gave a different version:

"Bonds took a bad knock after a Chinese central bank official
mistakenly indicated the bank had reduced its Treasuries in foreign
exchange reserves in a bid to minimize losses from a falling dollar.
It sent US bonds sliding and they are still trying to recover
despite the central bank official recanting, saying he had no knowledge of any government action on China's reserves; but traders had already taken action".

Not good, is it now. Still, they may have been selling some.

I referred to the desirability as expressed by financial commentators that the USD needed to fall to 70 cents. This was repeated yesterday:
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=586869

Argentina picked up another 12 tonnes of gold according to the WGC.

Here is Paul van Eeden, of of my 5 top writers:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov262004.html


Gerry

US data due:
10 Dec: Budget (deficit)
14 Dec: Overseas trade (deficit)
16 Dec: Current Account (deficit)

stolwyk
28-11-2004, 11:02 AM
The 3rd quarter data from the WGC (World Gold Councel) has come out and at the moment demand exceeds supply:
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

It is possible that "Official sales" (CB's or Central Banks)-See supply- could come up to the agreed 500 tonnes till year's end; then it may not.

This article is somewhat disturbing (Thanks SP):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/chuhran112604.html

Most knew that Fannie Mae was in a mess; I don't understand why it wasn't cut up in say 3 parts and sold out to private interests long ago.

I wrote in the series of 3 posts-See 26 Nov. that the US attack on the trade deficit and debt will take place in 2 ways:
Lower the US dollar.
Create Inflation.

Lowering of the USD is taking place now and the US hasn't made any effort to stop it. It could have materially raised interest rates but that would severely affect asset values and the private debt problem and would cause chaos. Besides, the trade deficit would remain.

Nevertheless, interest rates would increase if the foreign participation role to finance the Current Account deficit were too low. No doubt, the CB's will be pushed to substitute any shortfall.

Create Inflation: Arising from the depreciation of the USD, that wil be automatic. Oil prices tend to remain reasonably high. As to the Budget deficit, interest rates can be expected to rise.

Much depends on the tolerance of the EU who won't enjoy a too high EU value, and Japan.
There is a possibility that stagflation could appear at the end of the road should non-cooperation prevail at some stage.

The procedure reminds me of a racing car moving at very high speed between 2 posts with 1 cm clearance on both sides.


Gerry

stolwyk
29-11-2004, 09:19 AM
THE USA: CROSSING THE RUBICON

POST 4

WILL THE USA GET MANY DOLLARS BACK?

That is an interesting question now with the USD rapidly depreciating.

Of course, this currency has been in the world for many years but now people are flocking to the banks to dispose of them.

I am sure that someone from Timbaktu who has been hoarding the USD is well aware of the pending loss if it is not exchanged for something better.

How many are there? Nobody knows but I think it would be a few trillions by now. Much of this is owned by the IMF Banks of course.

But still, the money changers are not keen on them and the notes are handed to the banks who will get rid of them, one way or another. Much of this will go back to the US.

The US can't refuse taking in their own currency even though it is costing them foreign exchange. If they nearly run out of this, then this conversion facility will be closed and capital controls enacted.

If they refuse to take them, then the market will be swamped with USD's and the dollar will sink.

Perhaps the EU may hoard a few so as not drive the dollar down too fast as they are already worried about their competitiveness.

One should add that any returned money increases the US money supply and must be inflationary, if quantities are high and they could be. Who else wants them?

Perhaps a good reason to stop the US "Printing Press" for a while.

One would think that many Americans would have their savings in Euro, Swiss franks or gold stocks.

Perhaps others won't be so lucky. If the Capital Controls do come in, it will be too late.

Wait till the USD falls another 7-10 cents.

I wouldn't live there just now, neither buy an asset with a value which may collapse or have a mortgage with adjustable interest rates.

It is going to be rough there for many.

I do think that the return of the dollar to the US is another reason why Gold is not likely to retract that fast IMHO. And so does any suspicion as to which country is selling the USD.

Much depends on the speed of the USD depreciation.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
29-11-2004, 05:58 PM
A slow start today but often some excitement later in the evening. Some US traders may still not be back.

USD on Friday was 81.78 but today it increased to 82.2, then down to 81.97 and now 81.89. The Euro fell but recovered somewhat. It is stil 25 points off from 1.33 where it was on Friday.

Gold down a bit to 450.1, now 450.9 It has been fluctuating within a tight price range.

Here are a few websites:

GRANDFATHER ECONOMIC REPORTS:

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/reserves_a.htm#FOR

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/reserves_a.htm#current


Also:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/posts/dancy/diner.html

That ought to cheer you up!

Gerry

OneUp
29-11-2004, 09:40 PM
Stolwyk cheers for all these posts. Interesting stuff!

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 12:27 PM
Thanks OneUP.

I try to make this thread an informative one and am quite happy too share what I read and know with the readers.

Some interesting US data this week:

http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/11/day/29/daily/index.html


AN ANSWER TO SOMEONE:

I think that Japan is buying USD. Can't guarantee it but we shall soon know, I think.
_______________________________________

Thanks Goblins,

Japan may intervene soon to prop up dollar-report
November 29, 2004 3:41pm ET (Reuters)

NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Japanese monetary authorities may be spurred to intervene to prop up the dollar once the U.S. currency falls below 102 yen, according to a report from New York-based consultants Medley Global Advisors.

A market source who read the report said it cited a conversation last Friday between Japanese officials and business leaders in Japan on the dollar/yen exchange rate.

The officials said they were determined to intervene without consulting other countries if the dollar dropped below recent lows.

The dollar hit a fresh 4-1/2-year low against the yen on Friday, at 102.12 yen, according to Reuters data.

The source said that the report suggested that Japan could possibly step in even before the dollar reaches 102 yen.
__________________________________________________

Comment:
They are most unhappy about the way the USD is being traded down and have mentioned that a few times.

However, it is imperative that the US trade deficit be slashed soon and this requires a much lower dollar.

To delay this will mean that the deficits will be building up leading to much higher interest rates, a recession or a possible depression.

I think that Gold will react when it sniffs non agreement between parties and the delay of the inevitable.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

USD: 81.96 Gold: 452.5; oil: 49.76

Baa_Baa
30-11-2004, 04:29 PM
Current non-confirmation of the USPOG rise by many US mining stocks/indices may be perplexing for holders/traders of the past few years, where stocks tended to forecast the metals advances & declines.

The scenarios unfolding appear to be either 1) a sustained USPOG rise and the stocks catch up = potentially superb gains from here esp US mids/juniors which haven't moved all that much yet, or 2) USPOG breaks down and the stocks gut themselves in the usual weak hand capitulations which follow a metal rout. The side play is explorers with success in finding proven & probable resources as these are prime targets for growth hungry mids/majors at present.

Example; USPOG has blasted through highs to around $450 and BGO (Bema) stills struggles to even approach it's previous highs $4+ of Dec03/Jan04 where moi sold most holdings. Mois buyin again around the $1.90 has proven nicely profitable to-date, but with the current sustained USPOG rise one might've expected the old BGO high to have been exceed by now. There's a few miners like this.

Even a sniff of a USPOG rout (-ergo the miners too) and all my US miners are gone on trailing stops. Other than that, am riding the miner ponies up the wall of worry until they drop dead.

We can talk physical and options another time.;)

p.s. --- nice thread, there's some great info here for those precious about metals. Well done.

srotherh
30-11-2004, 05:02 PM
Look forward to further posts Baa Baa

arco
30-11-2004, 05:02 PM
Baa Baa
The Gold Bugs Index is actually showing a bearish divergence.

Mick100
30-11-2004, 05:57 PM
Good to hear from you baa-baa.
Could you put some of your charts and commentry on the main gold thread please.

We need all the help we can get to counter arco's bearish sentiments.


Mick

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 06:31 PM
Hi Guys,
Thanks for your comments, Baa Baa.

The purpose of this thread is to present a divergence of opinions without it containing too much banter, eg a solid informative thread.

I have a suspicion that the Japs are holding the USD between 81.9 and 82.1. Current data: USD: 82.09; USD/JPY: 103.3; Euro/USD: 1.3258.

Gold: 452.0.

It will be interesting to know what the US data brings.

Gerry

miner
30-11-2004, 06:53 PM
He like others has the fever Arco and still cant read by the look of it.

Cheers
Miner

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 07:23 PM
Miner,

Once you understand what is being discussed in this thread, then by all means, please join. But I don't think you understand.

You would be more interested in ruining this thread, particularly because it was going so well till you arrived.

Folks, the Gold price needs to rise as otherwise some will sell and sources indicate we may fall back to 440. I am prepared to accept retraces. See what the US data mean.

Gerry

miner
30-11-2004, 07:50 PM
Yeah right Gerry ever since you finally clued on to what some of us have been saying on this site for yonks(and got told we were mad) you think your gods gift to us all,and have ramped gold ever since.

It's not rocket science to have picked what POG was going to do.

Not a case of ruining the thread just onto your game,funny though how anyone who says something even slightly bearish gets nailed.

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 08:07 PM
Miner,

This is an informative thread; all *your* contributions are just wisecracks and being discourteous:

"He like others has the fever Arco and still cant read by the look of it".

As I said, you don't understand the reasoning behind the recent rise nor have any insight into what may occur. If you had, you would have participated long ago.

So, be a good boy and stay away from this thread because you have nothing positive to contribute except ruining this thread.

You remind me of a kid, a bully, throwing sand into other kids's eyes and having fun.

Gerry

miner
30-11-2004, 08:20 PM
Participate in your one sided ramping thread and add fuel to your fire I think not.

Some people on ST know my thoughts on gold and my calls.

The Arco comment was not referring to you try not to be so paranoid,leave you to it for now.

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 08:41 PM
Daily Metals Report:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/dmr1.php

miner
30-11-2004, 10:24 PM
Anyway Gerry the higher POG goes the more my amalgam that's growing by the day in the burdan will be worth,nice gritty stuff it is too,choice ay[:X].

Cheers
Miner

stolwyk
30-11-2004, 10:55 PM
Miner,

You said:
"Participate in your one sided ramping thread and add fuel to your fire I think not".

That is the most ridiculous thing I heard. I wrote quite a few posts on ARCO's thread knowing he was very bearish on gold. It was only when he told you (he didn't tell me directly) that I was ramping, that I stopped.

So, I don't understand why you couldn't have posted here apart from those throwaways. You could have put your negative opinion, but you didn't. [}:)]

So, I can only conclude that you were not ready to defend anything negative you said about Gold, because you were not confident. Hence you didn't post apart from insinuating that these posts were ramped.

Lucky that Cooper didn't come along otherwise you had to justify that as well. ;)

I say again you have that ramping paranoia and nobody can cure you.

Now stop ruining this thread, will you.

Gerry

miner
30-11-2004, 11:11 PM
Another reply full of lies and your warped imagination I see gerry,anyway leave you to it for now[:X].

stolwyk
01-12-2004, 07:53 AM
US DATA from Econoday:

Store sales (merchandise portion=10% of retail sales): -1.5%.

Redbook: "Redbook said sales rose only 0.9 percent in the Nov. 27 week compared to the year-ago week -- a dismal result".

Corporate profits after tax: 9.5% for 3rd quarter.
GDP: 3.9% for Q3 compared with a consensus of 3.7%.

Chicago Busines conditions: 65.2 compared with a consensus of 62.0

Some of these data are to be adjusted.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comments: Manufacturing in the Chigaco area has increased. The first benefits of a lower dollar may be coming through.

Particular notice needs to be taken of the pre-Xmas sales.

GDP looks good. I believe that the market is more interested in the deficits and how are these to be reduced.

The USD was stuck yesterday between 81.9 and 82.1, at the moment 81.85
Euro rising somewhat, now 1.3292; USD/JPY: 102.94; Gold 450.9; Crude oil: 48.9

The $A fell against the $USD and is now 0.7728. That has improved the Aussie gold price to about $583.55 (It was a dollar higher at one stage)

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
01-12-2004, 10:26 AM
I should have mentioned "Consumer Confidence" which was 90.5 compared with a consensus of 96.0.

"Highlights
The end of the election campaign failed to boost the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which fell back to 90.5 from 92.9 in October.

The reading indicates soft spirits, just at the cusp of turning negative.

Job prospects fell back, a surprise given last month's strong payroll data. Those saying jobs are plentiful fell back to 16.8 percent from 17.4 percent, while those who said jobs are hard-to-get rose 2 tenths to 28.1 percent.

The report's jobs data do not correlate with payroll data, but they still may limit optimism for Friday".

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The US may find itself in a situation where retail sales could decrease leading to less tax intake.

Unfortunately, it already has a massive budget deficit and this could get worse because even at lower levels of activity, expenditure, including interest on debt is still high. The war in Iraq is proceeding as usual.:

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm

Within the narrow limits of Govt debt, this stands at US7.5 trillions.


Gerry

stolwyk
01-12-2004, 02:12 PM
The USD did fall to a new low of 81.66, now 81.79.

Euro: 1.3299 and /JPY: 102.74.
Oil: 49.13.

Unfortunately, Gold is not benefitting due to consolidation, I think. There were a lot of contracts in existence. At one stage I thought it may run back to $440, but it is quite resilient just now


John Lee: The Dollar Freefall Continues:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/nov302004.htmlat $451.10

Gerry

stolwyk
01-12-2004, 06:37 PM
Some strange behaviour: From 551.9 down to 448.4 up again, down and now $452.

USD is still weak at 81.68 and the Euro is 1.3314 which is quite strong.


Here is an interesting read: "Financial Scandals":

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals/


Gerry

stolwyk
02-12-2004, 11:25 AM
The equity market was helped by a lower oil price: 45.49 (Low of 45.32)

The data from the US was positive but ignored by the gold and silver markets. These are now entirely focussed on the deficits and the desire from the US to have a much lower dollar.

And sure, the USD is now 81.44 (A low of 81.42)

Gold is now 454.2 (Was as high as 455.5, a new high).

The last interest announcement was accompagnied by
gold moving up at the same time. That moment was savoured by Gold holders.

A rise in interest rates was widely signalled, so the coming one won't be a surprise and shouldn't have any effect on gold, I think. If there is, it can only be very temporary.

The dollar may or may not get a small lift up, however every man and his dog know that it has to go lower.

We all know that the overall Bond interest rate has to rise anyway to attract overseas deposits.

From now on, the dollar can only get a substantial lift by concerted buying lasting for some time. Because of the massive deficits, that is not wanted by the US and has been referred to several times on this thread.

Gold was lead by silver which is now 7.99 (And a high of 8.05). I am expecting more action on silver.

Reports say that because we started a new month fresh buying of gold assisted as well.

But it needs to move out of the 450-455 range so as to ensure that it won't be slipping back.


Gerry

arco
02-12-2004, 11:50 AM
I see the thread title has changed again
....and now includes silver.
Whats next I wonder?

miner
02-12-2004, 11:56 AM
Gold plated bio stocks maybe?????.

Mick100
02-12-2004, 12:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by miner

Gold plated bio stocks maybe?????.



Good stuff :D

stolwyk
02-12-2004, 12:14 PM
Thanks Mick,

You like an informative thread, don't you?

Gerry

USD: 81.48, Euro 1.3364, USD/JPY 102.31, Gold 454.6; oil 45.49

BTW, the forex results yesterday were correct as London/Zurich gold was selling at 448.70 and Hongkong gold was 452. These 2 were recorded at the same time by the Forex, hence the jumps and falls.

stolwyk
02-12-2004, 05:36 PM
USD 81.38; Gold 455.9; silver $8; oil 45.49 and the system is more or less at a standstill just now.

There is the Employment Situation Report on Friday: As the dollar depreciates, exports normally grow and often the Labour participation rate does as well.

So, although good for equities perhaps, the focus is on getting the Dollar and deficits down.

Lowering of the dollar improves the return in USD for Multinationals and other exporters, so often tends to be positive for share prices.

Here is something worthwhile listening to:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Gerry

stolwyk
03-12-2004, 11:33 AM
The decline in the euro lead to a lower gold price last night.

Last night following a poor report from Germany, the Euro dropped more than a cent and brought the gold price back to 450.

The oil price dropped to 43.25 and could have contributed to bringing gold back to 448.7?

It is difficult to prove what the contributing factors are sometimes. It is also possible that Japan/ Germany may have buying the USD, who knows?

Then again, perhaps the time for profit taking has arrived?

The USD is now 81.95, the same level as that of a few days ago (It rose 1% from its low of 81.18).

The USA data didn't bring much news either and the DOW lost 5 points.

I still enjoy the statement made by a prominent FED member, something like: "The US deficits need to be shared by all".

And of course, these remain and the accumulation is continuing, no matter what temporary hiccups to gold prices occur. And the dollar needs to go down further; but of course, it doesn't move in a straight line.

It is a mistake looking at short term changes and drawing long term conclusions.

A somewhat long read:
Contrary Investor: "The Containment Area":

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/ci120104.html

Gerry

stolwyk
03-12-2004, 02:27 PM
From the Business Line, India:

Gold output may slip on low supply from mines
Our Bureau


Mumbai, Dec. 2

IN the past, high gold prices have provided encouragement to mines to expand gold production; but over the next few years gold output is unlikely to rise, despite current high rates.

In the medium term, global mine output of the yellow metal is forecast to trend lower despite an increase in global output expected in 2005 in part due to a recovery from temporary factors that hit global mine production in 2004, according to GFMS Ltd.

From a moderately higher base of 2005 of 2,650 tonnes, GFMS has predicted that global output will decline by an average of 30 tonnes per annum over a five-year period to reach 2,494 tonnes in 2010, in a base case scenario.

Several new mining projects are being planned. Notwithstanding the ongoing 50-odd feasibility studies, it is unlikely that all the projects will be developed. There could be delays in permission, financing and construction of new mines. Therefore, an optimistic view is that global output could peak at 2,660 tonnes in 2006 and start declining then on.

The London-based consultancy has commenced a `mining project alert service' to provide a comprehensive quarterly update on advanced exploration to development stage gold and silver projects covering 43 countries".

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment:
Mine supply was 2320 tonnes in 2003

03-12-2004, 03:29 PM
Gerry I see the tune and words are still A ramping we will go. A ramping we will go.

stolwyk
03-12-2004, 05:07 PM
From FT.COM:

Why America is switching to a weak dollar policy
By Martin Wolf
Published: December 1 2004 21:02 | Last updated: December 1 2004 21:02

How far might the dollar fall? By as much as 50 per cent from its peak, in trade-weighted nominal terms, suggest two distinguished international economists, Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California, Berkeley and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard.* Up to now, the fall has been just 17 per cent, on a broad trade-weighted basis (see chart). More, it seems, is on the way.

The work of these two economists assesses the real exchange rate adjustments needed to reduce the US current account deficit. But a prior question is whether such a reduction is needed. The honest answer is: nobody knows.

But it is easy to accept that the present path is unsustainable, since both the current account deficit and external liabilities are on an explosive upward trajectory. On current trends, the current account deficit might even jump from 6 per cent of gross domestic product to as much as 10 per cent by the next decade.

Already, strains are showing. Since 2001, there has been a net outflow of foreign direct investment and portfolio equity, but a huge inflow of money from foreign governments (see chart). In 2002, 2003 and the first half of 2004, foreign governments financed $564bn (43 per cent) of a cumulative current account deficit of $1,318bn. Since the US fiscal deficit is the principal domestic counterpart of the external deficit, the flow from foreign governments is the biggest (albeit unofficial) aid programme in history.

Some argue that Asian governments and, above all, China's are wedded to the fixed exchange rate against the dollar. Others argue that, once the floor to the dollar is established, private flows will, once again, take up the strain. All this is conceivable. But at least one good reason why the private sector will not finance the US deficit is the size of the exchange-rate risk. To assess this risk, it is necessary to analyse how big a fall in the dollar might be needed. The smaller the needed fall, the smaller the exchange-rate risk and the more sustained the capital inflow will be.

Total spending by US residents now exceeds GDP by close to 6 per cent. Suppose that the US was a small country whose aggregate income was spent on perfectly tradeable goods and services. All that would then be needed, to eliminate the current account deficit, would be to cut aggregate spending by this amount. The excess demand currently satisfied by imports would disappear, while GDP itself would be unaffected. No change in relative prices would be needed and so no change in the exchange rate.

This is not how any economy, least of all the US, works. Prof Obstfeld and Prof Rogoff introduce three modifications: first, the tradeable goods and services made by the US are different from those it imports; second, the US accounts for at least a quarter of global output; and, third, some three quarters of US output is made of things it can trade only with difficulty, such as domestic transport, healthcare, restaurant services and so forth.

Think of a world with just two countries: the US, with an external deficit of 6 per cent of GDP, and the rest of the world, with a surplus of 2 per cent. A reduction in the US current account deficit and so of the rest of the world's surplus must now generate changes in three relative prices prices of US-made tradeables relative to its imports, prices of US non-tradeables against its tradeables and the prices of foreign non-tradeables against foreign tradeables. What then determines the change in the real exchange rate (or home prices against foreign prices)? The answer is the price changes needed to preserve full employment.

If there were no changes in relative prices, a reduction in US demand would not only improve the current account deficit, but also generate a recession. A reduction in demand equal to the current account deficit would end up reducing it only from 6 per cent to 4.2 per cent of GDP. But it would also lower demand for

stolwyk
04-12-2004, 09:59 AM
Gold futures end at 16-year high near $458.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={A019031F-CE30-444D-A5D5-99CA2A920FD2}

Extract:
"Gold was struggling on either side of unchanged when news hit of the bombings in Spain," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"The euro has run up to the level where central bankers may take some action," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "Verbal threats may be all that occurs, but that risk is now high."

Looking further ahead, Grandich believes the Bank of Japan may intervene in the currency market "as most of their manufacturers have not hedged themselves currency-wise for the next quarter."

The key level for those manufacturers is 100 yen, he said. "Breaking that would cause them to sell U.S. dollars hard, something the BOJ doesn't want to see."

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

LATEST:
Euro: 1.3455 (About 1.8 cents up)
USD/JPY: 102.05 (Japan could intervene)

USD: 80.94 (dropped 1 cent)
Oil: 42.54 (weak)

Gold: 455.3 (High: 456.0)

Silver: 8.0


Gerry

stolwyk
04-12-2004, 05:19 PM
How about summarizing the US situation? (References can be found on this thread).

First we start with 3 large deficits: the Trade deficit, the Current Account deficit and the Budget deficit.

It is imperative that we do get these down because further rapid growth of these wil only result in much higher interest rates and we could finish with stagflation. More indiscriminate printing of dollars could even result in hyperinflation.

Reducing the Trade deficit will promote exports, manufacturing and employment, however the latter is subject to outsourcing.

To do that the USD will need to be lowered: depreciating the dollar will also cut down the US demand as prices rise. That may be beneficial to the Budget deficit. Two high calibre scientists calculated an ideal USD Index of 65 At the moment it is 81

All this is not without risk:
The large US Bond holders, eg China, Japan may not like the depreciation to go too deep and may threaten to decrease investment in US Bonds to finance the US Cur.Acc. deficit and hence force the US in a corner. Also, the EEC is not happy as their economy is nearly at a standstill and feel that their exports will be threatened by a low USD.

Japan is not happy when the USD/JPA is less than 102 at the moment and they could intervene at any time (It is 102.1 now). So it is not just FA or TA but political constraints play a role as well.

Lowering the USD too fast won't give others time to adjust and a recession could result-That risk is always there during the depreciation at a later stage.

One could say that the overal movement of the USD will be south (and very difficult to reverse in a big way) and hence Gold going north. Other factors assisting Gold will be overall demand and sabotage of any kind.

It was said some time ago there would be a heavy retracement-that risk disappeared. Then a minor one occurred a couple of days ago and was reversed overnight. Now it is said that end of year's squaring of the books and declaring profits will free up more gold and that a retrace is again possible.

Of course, small retraces of say up to $10 are always possible but because of the overriding need to bring the dollar down, demand for gold wil quickly re-establish itself IMHO. Gold will remain in a strong position although I think it could have been higher.

Here is something to read (Thanks Chuck):

THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR-- THE PASSING OF THE BUCK?
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3445928

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
05-12-2004, 06:24 PM
I did mention that the USD Index has to go lower than 80 (It was 77.3 quite some time ago).

I expect a battle around the 80 mark but sometimes you never know: remember how gold got pushed across the 450 mark?

Much depends on some mentioned countries, but sofar, the fall from 86 to 81 was quick; I don't expect the next desired drop to 75 to be that fast IMHO.

The war in Iraq has turned for worse.

The US will be on its own as anybody who works with the US can be killed; the Iraqi Police force has been attacked many times and can be considered to be virtually non existent in some places.

This to be followed by the Iraqi army? Many are deserting.

It is a mess in Iraq and these are additional problems and expense for the US. It pays to hold onto gold stocks, IMHO.

Others may think the opposite.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.


Something to read:
Eric hommelberg: gold & oil
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommelberg120404.html


Or to listen to: THE SAN FRANCISCO GOLD CONFERENCE:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

stolwyk
06-12-2004, 12:55 PM
One of the six explorers discussed in this thread, Wheaton River (WRM), will be taken over by Goldcorp, I think:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20216&whichpage=2


Thanks Belg for:
http://www.goldline.com/featured-article/2004/heading-for-financial-disaster2.html

stolwyk
06-12-2004, 08:48 PM
I said on 4 Dec:

"One could say that the overal movement of the USD will be south (and very difficult to reverse in a big way) and hence Gold going north. Other factors assisting Gold will be overall demand and sabotage of any kind.

It was mentioned some time ago there would be a heavy retracement-that risk disappeared. Then a minor one occurred a couple of days ago and was reversed overnight. Now it is said that end of year's squaring of the books and declaring profits will free up more gold and that a retrace is again possible.

Of course, small retraces of say up to $10 are always possible but because of the overriding need to bring the dollar down, demand for gold wil quickly re-establish itself IMHO. Gold will remain in a strong position although I think it could have been higher".


I must add that sales in India are extremely strong just now for fear of higher prices.
On the SAN FRANCISCO conference there was some talk about a retracement in the beginning of the year as well.
________________________________

Now we have the TA of the respected Clive Maund:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/maund120504.html

Extract:
"The fact that gold is overbought relative to its moving averages and various indicators should not lead one to conclude that it will react much, if at all, especially as the dollar action on Friday was indicative of the probable onset of panic"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks

stolwyk
07-12-2004, 03:59 PM
Gold isn't really moving: 452.6 USD 81.31, oil 42.98 Euro 1.3418

The dollar may have moved down to fast, perhaps.

It has been said that the Euro is high enough while Gold could retrace. I have given Clive Maund's view yesterday,

here is Mike Swanson's summary:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/dec062004.html



And how is our ETF GLD coming along? Oops:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/dec062004.html

Not good, is it?

Gerry

stolwyk
08-12-2004, 10:39 AM
It was reported there were sales by Bullion Banks, hedge funds and companies needing to show a profit on their books by the end of the financial year (31 Dec).

It is expected that whis will continue in Dec.
DATA: USD 81.26, Euro 1.3418, Gold 450.4, Oil is weak at 41.46 Opec will have a meeting shortly.

I estimate gold should have been about 458 at the Euro rate of 1.3418. So, it has already come down because of sales. But Gold has been reasonably tenacious sofar, there is good demand.



Something to read:

THE DISAPPEARING DOLLAR:

http://economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3446249


Gerry

stolwyk
08-12-2004, 07:56 PM
The Euro came under pressure but is recovering somewhat: 1.3352. USD up 0.5 cents to 81.75 Oil 41.46 with Opec having a meeting shortly.
As mentioned, Gold is being sold down and is now $446.5.


Japan threatens huge dollar sell-off
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1366578,00.html


Saudi oil fields in danger?
http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/07/news/international/saudi_oil/index.htm

stolwyk
09-12-2004, 11:07 AM
Gold fell back to 433.2 and I thought that it would hold at $440.

However, the $A fell as well so in those terms gold is now $US440.3 or $A581 (Some 4 dollars lower than its high of $A585).

Unless it is mentioned now, the question of some countries dumping gold will be answered in March. (They are entitled to dump some 500 tonnes per year but have dumped 291 tonnes up to Sept 30. An extra dump of some 150-200 tonnes over a short period can be rather painful).

Many funds who at the end of the year would crystallize profits may have got out by now but there could be some more to dump yet in this period till Christmas.

The USD is 81.83; Euro 1.3357 and oil 41.94 (Opec meeting due soon).

The Japs would have stopped complaining as the USD/Jap is now 103.94, some 1.9 yen higher than a few days ago.



BTW, Dr Marc Faber gives good value at times:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/gold120404.html

Look for 2nd hour and click on "Windows media" or whatever player you use (That bypasses 1st hour)

There are 3 heavyweights there (Faber, Dines and Van Eeden).

MEANWHILE, THE US DEFICITS ARE INCREASING.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

miner
09-12-2004, 11:11 AM
Gerry the cut n paste king[:0][:X].

stolwyk
09-12-2004, 12:29 PM
One of the objects of the US is to lower the dollar and hence to decrease deficits, provided spending is curbed (a big if).

However, the difference of opinions of the dollar block participating countries can't be ignored.

Japan in particular is highly vocal and is keen that statements are being leaked out to show its displeasure.

However, even with the best practices, the US will get halfway to doom, but if the lowering of the dollar is obstructed, then it will be downhill for good. (Stagflation or Hyper Inflation).

So, there is little choice. Gold holders should ignore the temporary "discomforts" and focus on these 3 items IMHO:

THE OBJECTS OF A US DOLLAR DEVALUATION WON'T BE ACHIEVED BY PEGGING TO THE DOLLAR AND COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS.

THE DEFICITS ARE INCREASING. ABOUT $US2 BILL/DAY TO FUND. WHO WILL FUND THESE?

BIN LADEN AND OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS WILL ALWAYS BE THERE.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
10-12-2004, 10:59 AM
As reported, funds continued selling and a low of 432.1 was reached. It is now 436.7 The EFT StreetTracks had 133 tonnes before the sales started and because of arbitraging, this went down to 88 tonnes, now 91 tonnes.

GATA has now found out that the company who pours those gold bars used multiple numbering, so that removed one of their main objections. That leaves the question about custodianship of the metal.

Since that uproar started, people stopped buying ETF shares, so it is important that confidence be restored. It could remove up to 300 tonnes of gold from the market in its first year and that would make a difference on pricing.

South Africa reports less mine output because of the Rand and steel prices. I had envisaged a fall of 30 tonnes this year and the way the dollar is going, we may get close to that. It will get worse once the dollar resumes its fall.(USD=5.8 Zar).

Oil has moved up to 42.53. As the $A is now $US0.7543, the current gold price in $A is $4.50 lower than its high this year, so the damage in $A value is about 1%.

The USD 82.11, the Euro 1.3308 (stabilizing) and the $US/Jap a safe 104.73

As mentioned the fundamentals referred to in previous posts have not changed, however, within the dollar long downtrend there are some uptrends and this is one of them.(Nothing moves in a straight line).

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

Mick100
10-12-2004, 11:47 AM
Good stuff Gerry

stolwyk
10-12-2004, 08:08 PM
Thanks Mick.

The EEC, Japan and other countries were none too pleased about the rapid fall in the USD:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&refer=japan&sid=a9gVbQ2yBJdE

I am assuming that some effort was made to buy up the dollar.

The USD rose to 82.62 when a Bloomberg Report came through where the OPEC members had asked the Saudis to cut oil by 1 m. barrels.
According to the news, the Saudis agreed.

The USD immediately went back to 82.57 and is now 82.49.

The USD and gold have been playing cat and mouse all day, a minute increase in the USD resulting in a small Gold price decrease.

At the moment Gold is 434.0 (A low of 433.6), the USD/Jap 105.23 and the Euro 1.3240 Crude Oil is 42.53

According to TA, the important resistance point is 430 for Gold. I thought it may get tested tonight. Perhaps Opec may have timed that message well.

Gerry
A few sensitive USA data to come in overnight: PPI, Consumer Sentiment Index and Treasury Budget. See what gives.

stolwyk
11-12-2004, 10:32 AM
The USD rose to 83.18 to come back to 82.55

The gold price hit a low of 431.25 but settled at 433.8 More selling is expected. Silver is 6.71

The $A=75.13, so has moved down. The high for gold this year was $A585 and it is now $A576.90, a decline of 1.38%

The Euro is 1.3227 while oil which originally rose, slumped to 40.71 (Low 40.25).

The USD/Jap is now 105.4 (High 106.2)

Some USA data:
"The U.S. Treasury posted a budget deficit of $57.9 billion in November, just a few million higher than October's $57.3 billion deficit. The November figures were roughly in line with expectations, but significantly higher than the average for the past several years".

"The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index bounced up to 95.7 in the early reading for December from 92.8 in November".

"Producer prices rose a steep 0.5 percent in November, far above expectations for a 0.1 percent increase and outside the highest estimates". Note: This PPI includes food and energy.

Gerry

stolwyk
12-12-2004, 12:21 PM
Official news said that the NY ETF "StreetTracks Gold Shares" sold 15 tonnes of gold just prior to the gold price coming down and so got embroiled in more controversy.

Even "Barclays Gold" couldn't help smiling. This competitor is to launch their new ETF shortly and would have learnt from that ETF's mistakes, I hope.

Once started, that new ETF could make a difference to the gold market.
______________________________________

It is interesting to look at the various stakeholders in the USD.
It was clear that not only Europe and Japan but Canada and Australia were also getting hurt by a USD Index much lower than 82.0

China was accused of dumping USD. I don't believe they did because:
1. Pushing the USD down would decrease the value of their big holdings in USD.
2. Why dumping dollars if they can be used to acquire assets in other countries. Or other currencies and gold. That is not considered dumping.
3. Besides, they are pegging to the US dollar and wouldn't want to get in a controversy about the possibility of them dumping USD:
4. Holding enough USD means power and if these holdings are big enough, can be used as an economic weapon, eg it may prevent the US from taking protective measures against China.

The Chinese may consider that to be far more valuable than the losses they make on their USD holdings.

5. The present situation suits the Chinese very well: the lower dollar has made them even more competitive in Europe.
6. Transfer of overseas technology is to continue and the strong inflow of overseas capital saves the Chinese from having to create capital asssets in a short time frame. Plenty of cheap labour is always available.
_______________________

The Chinese therefore denied dumping in their official newsorgan:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/10/content_399296.htm


Gerry

stolwyk
12-12-2004, 06:19 PM
I mentioned in post of 9 Dec. 1.29 pm:

"However, even with the best practices, the US will get halfway to doom, but if the lowering of the dollar is obstructed, then it will be downhill for good. (Stagflation or Hyper Inflation)".

Comment: I am not sure if there wil be best practices.



Anyway, this is good reading:

A NEW ILLUSION: THE FALLING DOLLAR

Kurt Richebächer
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/richebacher121004.html


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
13-12-2004, 06:21 PM
Comparison of stocks:
The ounces of gold bought per $A1 Market CAP for:
NDM.TSX: 0.237
NG.TSX: 0.070
OXR.AX: 0.016
Reference: See page 1, post of 9 Oct., time 7.27 pm.
_____________________________________

Recent news indicates that NDM most likely requires $US1.6 Bill plant instead of the $CAN500 mill used in those calculations.

To compare stocks, it is also wise to allocate $200 mill to OXR as it is running now while the others will start up later.

On the 9 Oct Gold was $415 while Silver was $6.0 and these were used in calculations (Today, gold is $ 438.5 and silver is $6.82).

The purpose of the exercise was to compare the stocks mentioned below by taking into account the cost of the coming plant plant to be used by these companies (except OXR which has already paid for it).

The guided new data are:
The ounces of gold bought per $A1 Market CAP for:
NDM.TSX: 0.0594
NG.TSX: 0.070
OXR.AX: 0.0201
____________________________

ADD:
BDG.AX: 0.0435
BSG.ASX: 0.0372
Notes: All calculations include inferred reserves.
BDG has 11 mill ounces.

BSG has 1.777 mill of gold and 126 mill ounces of silver. The BSG shares used are 179.2 mill. These include the options to be converted this month. The cash raised is part of the plant cost.

That is my opinion,

Gerry
Holds NDM, NG, BSG
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

miner
13-12-2004, 09:26 PM
Still playing with yourself I see Gerry[|)][:X].

stolwyk
13-12-2004, 11:41 PM
A lot of important US data starting with Retail sales tonight followed tomorrow by Interest rates setting, Trade deficit and Industrial production.

On Thursday: Current Account Deficit, Housing starts, Jobless claims and Money supply.

Finally, on Friday: the CPI.

Gold rose today and is now 436.25; silver 6.82 and oil 40.71. USD 82.40.

Gerry

stolwyk
14-12-2004, 08:41 AM
One could say that the US news was positive last night, however, gold rose to $439.1 (+$5).

Remaining news this week may not be that exciting for the USD.

The US has a huge problem: How to cut down demand without hurting the economy and then try to deal with the deficits as well.

A heavy recession is not good enough as taxes raised will be much lower and the ability to pay interest on these deficits will be heavily reduced, unless the US introduces heavy inflation to reduce overall debt.

So, every day this possibility becomes greater IMHO. Commentators mentioned that the effect of the financial stimuli wil work out sooner or later and then the economy will slow down.
___________________________

As to Gold, I did mention that in my opinion, it will disengage from currencies at $US525-$550. I note that a commentator mentioned $530 later.

The current $A gold price is some $577.46 which is only 1.3% from the $A585 high for the year.

And then to think that when any ordinary company loses 10% or more, little is said!

At the moment, the USD is 82.19 (Down), Euro 1.3325, Gold 439.1, USD/Jap a safe 104.6 and oil about the same at $40.65.

My Canadian gold stocks have moved up.

This week will see most of the trading done before Xmas, so if anyone is thinking of pushing Gold down to $430, they need to hurry.

BTW, the situation in Iraq is not good and the Deficits are still increasing.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
14-12-2004, 07:56 PM
US Interest rates setting tonight.



Who thinks these people are stupid?
http://www.goldline.com/featured-article/2004/heading-for-financial-disaster2.html

stolwyk
15-12-2004, 09:23 AM
The main US feature was the increase in the Trade deficit from $50.9 Bill in Sept to 55.5 Bill in Oct.

The interest rate increase was an expected 25 points to 2.25%.

There was little reaction and both the USD and gold prices changed somewhat within the current bands: USD 82.31, gold 435.2.

Oil is moving up: 42.47


Catch-up With Gold In 2005:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/taylor121304.html


Clive Maund:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
16-12-2004, 07:08 AM
The Euro rose to 1.3418 and the dollar was sold off: 81.60 (-0.72).
USD/Jap: 104.23.

Gold rose 5.30 to 440.4 and oil rose 2.45 to 44.90 (Lower stocks).
Canadian gold stocks rose.

Foreigners Added $48.1 Billion in U.S. Assets in October, Low for the Year (Thanks Bringitere):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/economies.html


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
16-12-2004, 05:04 PM
Current USD: 81.60

I suggest that a 455 gold price will correspond with that.

EURO is 1.3408 which corresponded with 459-460 gold price before.

I am thinking that the gold price could be trying to creep back to 450.

It is now 442.4 and rose $3.00 Oil is 44.69

The US Current Account tonight may not be that wonderful so gold may get a leg up perhaps.

That is assuming sellers don't enter the market in a big way.
______________________________

FIFTEEN REASONS TO OWN GOLD
Gary North's REALITY CHECK

Issue 398 November 23, 2004
SOLID GOLD REASONS TO OWN GOLD

EXTRACT:
"Over a year ago, in September, 2003, John Embry published an article, "15 Reasons to Own Gold." Mr. Embry is an investment strategist with the Sprott Gold & Precious Metals Fund. As such, I suppose he is not a disinterested observer. But I am sufficiently impressed with his arguments that I think I should pass them along.

What is amazing is that this appeared over a year ago. What he said then is more relevant today. The dollar is lower. Gold is higher.

***************
1. Global Currency Debasement:
The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most
particularly gold, rise significantly in price.

2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.

3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse
in virtually every other instance in history.

4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US dollar):
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the US, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative
real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:
US authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the US's footsteps and
global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.

6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand:
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional demand (jewelry, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.

7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years:
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.

8. Large Short Positions:
To fill the gap between m

stolwyk
17-12-2004, 12:44 PM
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT AND THE USD

Current Account: "The current account measures the U.S international trade balance in goods, services, and unilateral transfers on a quarterly basis".

The Current Account deficit was $164.4 Bill. in the quarter to June 30, 2004 compared with $164.7 Bill. in the quarter to Sept 30, 2004.

So, it is static but the USD fell 4.3 % to 88 on Sept 30 from its high of 92 in the second week in May. If the current USD rate remains at 82 at end of Dec, then it would have fallen 11% since that high of 92.

Therefore, the next Announcement covering the Oct-Dec period is important because of the steep fall of the dollar and one would expect an increased cut in the Current Account Deficit.

But wil it be enough to counteract the negatives of a lower dollar policy? It may not. Sofar, it hasn't although the oil price would have been an important constituent. But of course, a country has to deal with the facts.

There is nothing to be proud of. There will have to be a significant fall in this deficit to make it worthwhile.

(The argument that the consensus forecast for the current forecast of 171 Bill for the latest quarter was about $6 bill more than actual, sounds good for the share market but it really shouldn't).

A prominent Commentator mentioned that because the US easy credit policy was misdirected and resulted in moving resources into the speculative sectors, the country now hasn't got the needed requirements to quickly increase exports.

The BUDGET Deficit needs to be cut as well.

We really need another couple of sets of data to gauge the health of the US economy and the probability of Stagflation. Sofar, progress is negative.

The war in Iraq is continuing and the stakes are being raised.
______________________________

Very good article:

Gold & Inflation, Negative Real Rates - Hommelberg
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommelberg121504.html



Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
18-12-2004, 12:24 PM
CPI was an expected 0.2%.

Some time ago, I mentioned on HC that a mean oil price of $45 can be expected for some time. It moves within a band of course and can be up to $5 either way.

It has risen to 46.57 (+1.14). The world is waiting for action by the Saudis to reduce suply. Increasing oil prices alter the USD in normal circumstances and it is now 82.16 (-0.34).

Higher oil prices increase inflation and the Current Account Deficit and that is good for gold.

While normally an increase in interest will strengthen the dollar, in the current economic conditions it could have the opposite effect.

High inflation and interest rates rates up to a certain level, tend to favour gold.

So, it is interesting to watch the movement of those variables which derermine the gold price. And all need to be followed as anyone can suddenly increase gold prices.

The Achilles Heel of the US economy is the oil price and of course secured supply is a prime requirement. Many doubt if the latter is as firm now or will be than has been the case in the past. This risk factor needs to be built into the oil price.

The Gold price sensed that higher oil prices are on the way and moved up $2.1 to $441.1

So, we need to watch these items:

THE OBJECTS OF A US DOLLAR DEVALUATION WON'T BE ACHIEVED BY PEGGING TO THE DOLLAR AND COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS.

THE DEFICITS ARE INCREASING. ABOUT $US2.2 BILL/DAY TO FUND. WHO WILL FUND THESE?

THE PRICE OF OIL AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY ARE IMPORTANT ISSUES.

BIN LADEN AND OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS WILL ALWAYS BE THERE. AND SO IS THE IRANIAN CONNECTION.

INFLATION IS INCREASING. AND SO ARE INTEREST RATES.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
19-12-2004, 12:00 PM
The US Budget deficit wil be a high one next year due to underestimate of the Iraq war effort (Thanks Belg):
http://csmonitor.com/2004/1217/p01s01-usmi.html

I thought we may be able to get away with 10% but a 20% increase is too much.

I was asked what priority I gave to the Fundamental and TA coverage.

I think that FA plays the greatest role here as the issues are clear: gold was shorted in a big way but only retreated to 430, due to the USD being kept in check because of the deficits.

The US wants the dollar down while the rest don't want to. Any benefits of a lower dollar have sofar not been proven and may not be unless other measures are introduced.

As to TA, I tend to read Clive Maund; he is a clear presenter and is well known. He is quite happy to stick his neck out. However, I may not always agree.

One reason why I keep gold stocks is because an unforseen event may suddenly occur, eg an attack on oil installations, oil platforms or on US interests, wherever these may be.

The US tax selling month is just about over.
The pricing of Canadian gold stocks follows the gold price closely.

Paul van Eeden is wishing you a happy Xmas:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/dec172004.html

And so do I,


Gerry

stolwyk
19-12-2004, 08:46 PM
The US Consumer Price Index employs the principle of Hedonic Adjustment:

Briefly, say a product was worth $1000 last year and it is $1200 now.

However, the quality has improved by 25%, eg it may be able to produce 25% more data in a given time frame than before; then for CPI use, the cost is $1200-25%:
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1994/05/art6exc.htm

As 46% of the value of the CPI index is exposed to this adjustment, it will make a difference.

(Incidentally, I got that number from a Commentator who mentioned that without these adjustments, the CPI could be 1% more, say an increase from 4% to 5%).

It was introduced in 1991 by Greenspan who has been the FED's chairman since 1987.

Another item is the exclusion of any item which made a significant sudden increase in price.

Hedonic adjustments are very difficult to make and are highly subjective. You draw your own conclusions re the US CPI.

Gerry

Mick100
19-12-2004, 10:46 PM
People on the ground in the US estimate the rate of inflation to be around 6%, where as the official rate of inflation is 2%

Along with hedonic indexing, food and energy are not included in the official CPI calculations.
Amazing, it is, how easily the masses are fooled
by this creative accountting.


Mick


All the best for the festive season Gerry.


.

stolwyk
20-12-2004, 08:42 AM
Thanks for that Mick.

Here is something unusual. As always, I don't necessary agree with the TA produced but one needs to keep an open mind:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh121804.html


Wishing you a merry Christmas,

Gerry

stolwyk
20-12-2004, 02:14 PM
Clive Maund: Special warning:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/maund121904.html

I also posted this yesterday:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh121804.html


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
21-12-2004, 10:36 AM
Bundesbank not to sell any gold:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/dmr1.php

Market is quiet. USD 81.65 (-0.5), Euro 1.3391 (+0.85 cents), Gold 442 (+80 cents), USD/Jap 104.11 (-), Oil 45.78 (-0.8)

The war in Vietnam is not going well. Fighters have reinfiltrated Falluja and part is being bombed.

This supports gold.

Gerry

Mick100
21-12-2004, 11:55 AM
"The war in Vietnam is not going well. Fighters have reinfiltrated Falluja and part is being bombed."

==============================


Your a bit behind the times there Gerry although I can understand how one could get confused.
There are a lot of similarities between Vietnam and Iraq.


Mick

stolwyk
21-12-2004, 01:37 PM
And here is a SPECIAL for Silver Investors:

THE SILVER REVOLUTION IS GAINING STEAM:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bond/dec202004.html


I won't be surprised if some South American countries will use silver also.


Gerry

stolwyk
21-12-2004, 03:23 PM
GOLD AND SUPPLY-Thanks Dub:

http://news.goldseek.com/EricHommelberg/1103560563.php

stolwyk
22-12-2004, 11:21 AM
GOLD PRICE DRIVERS:

1. We are now waiting for Barclay to start up their ETF in NY and that ought to remove gold from the market, assuming their systems are clear.

2. The increased interest in Gold in China and more so in India: there are large numbers of people who are doing well and decide to invest more in Gold.

3. The US and worldwide deficits which are getting worse. Little has been done to reduce these.

4. The USD which is waiting for its next shock treatment.

5. Oil supply and security. There can't be a guarantee.

6. The political situation in the Middle East. There is a fear that Iraq may finish up being cut up.

7. The US army is having a hard time in Iraq. Plenty of people getting killed and this results in anti US hatred.
Reports indicate a massive expenditure to come of some $200 Bill. for Iraq and Afghanistan in 2005.

8. The constant fear of massive sabotage by terrorists.

9. The not so good US international standing in Europe and the Middle East. This results in boycott of American goods and the phasing out the dollar, wherever possible.

10. The evidence that US inflation and interest rates are moving up.



Gold prices don't move in a straight line, so there will be retracements from time to time. Sofar, these have been minor considering the massive selling and shorting of gold by Hedge funds not too long ago and the current tax loss selling.

To bring the gold price down in a meaning full way requires a great effort as mentioned before.

At the same time, these constant positive and powerful gold price drivers may quickly restore gold to a good setting after any retracement.

That is my opinion,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

Baa_Baa
22-12-2004, 02:27 PM
stolwck;
quote:At the same time, these constant positive and powerful gold price drivers may quickly restore gold to a good setting after any retracement.

While I would largely agree with you in regards to the emerging fundamentals of a Gold Bull market **in USD** (the global reserve currency), hence all related USD denominated assets rise (explorers, mines, metal, futures, options) ... what is your opinion about the opportunity for people who spend 'sound money' i.e. strong currencies, to acquire Gold?

For example Oz or Kiwi? These people are faced with a different entry scenario and different rational for vesting in physical metals. They buy using a strong currency into range bound price -as a result of forex cross rate erosion, so a lot of the commentator espoused 'fundamentals' are not neccessarily relevant, or more accurately put, have less direct effect.

Here's the OZPOG which shows that for the entire time that the Gold fundamentals (in USD) have been kicking in (i.e. Mid 2001 when USPOG started upwards after 22 years of decline), the average price has been quite steady. Buyers of physical metal using OZ$ must be doing it for reasons other than capital return on investment?

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=AUD&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Likewise for NZPOG, which is even worse. A range bound price in a declining trend channel!

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=NZD&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

So I'd be interested to hear your opinion on whether the rhetoric of the USA Gold Bull market fundamentals applies to Gold in strong currencies, and if so why, and if not why not. There's a lot of people in NZ and AUS who would take one look at a Gold price chart in their currency and run a mile.

... The answer might have something to do with systemic failure of the global reserve currency and global economy and the requirement for prudent fiscal insurance, but, how does one relate to that scenario when in Aus and/or NZ, in economic boom times, spending local currency, and the only diatribe proferred by the commentators is that there's a bull market in Gold in USD?

stolwyk
22-12-2004, 04:01 PM
Hi Baa Baa,

I have stressed on this thread and on HC that I don't hold Gold metal but instead hold Gold stocks, mainly Canadian. However, these stocks do follow the gold price.

Theoretically, when the gold metal prices rise then the price of the gold assets in the ground rise as well.

However, many smaller junior stocks are missing out not only in Australia but in Canada as well, so one needs the larger growth stocks which also improve their position (Drilling results, BFS's, building mines, etc).

The share price of these stocks in theory should rise with time even if the gold price remained static, assuming it is economic.

So there are 2 ways to improve the share price of selected gold stocks: gold prices and improvements.

I do regularly present the paper NZ profits of some 6 stocks (5 Canadians and NCM) and these were some 38.5% over 100 days on 24 Nov (See page 3, date 24 Nov).

Cheers,

Gerry

Baa_Baa
22-12-2004, 05:57 PM
Oh, you don't do metal, sorry my mistake - your frequent references to funnymentals led me to think that you might have taken action to mitigate against the --outcomes-- of the fundamentals.

The answer to my rhetorical questions were;

1. Buy quality US miners;
- because they're leveraged on the USPOG and therefore rising
faster than the forex effect on local currencies (on
average).

2. Accumulate precious metal in local currency while the price is sideways / down, i.e. buy weakness
- because if one -really- believes the gold fundamentals have
kicked in then some prudent fiscal insurance IS required and
the price is [much] lower than it's likely to be when the
SHTF.

3. Accumulate local miners;
- because they're relatively cheap against the suppressed local
POG price action and local currency buys a lot of mine right
now.

On first sign of a de-couple of local currency from USD [i.e. funnymental #2], then;

4. Aggressively buy local miners
- because they're going to leap ahead based on the underlying
asset value improvement in local currency terms

5. Stop accumulating physical
- because it's too expensive by now and you'll be the one
selling to the sheeple.

caveat: "Mine" means, profitable mid/lge cap listed mining company with substantial proven and probable reserves; largely forward unhedged, stable employment, great management.

regards
BAA

miner
22-12-2004, 06:09 PM
Gerry is just a cut and paste ramper as you can see by his answer,same old stuff,oop's and the "edit" king,ay gerry[}:)][:X].

stolwyk
22-12-2004, 07:31 PM
The Gold price can rise in 2 ways:

1. The current way: Link with USD.

2. Currencies are disconnected and gold is sold solely on Demand/supply factors.

At the moment (2) is not active but if supply can be cut back/demand increased more or if inflation increases in a meaningful way, then I can see it happen after a short time of adjustment, say at $525-$550/ounce. (I did mention those numbers previously.

Hence my reference to the proposed Barclays ETF which is supposed to remove real gold from the market.

That may not be enough but as demand picks up more then the amount of gold in circulation becomes less and the propensity for higher prices will become more obvious.

That is the main reason why I suggested in a previous post that the chance for a solid correction at the moment will require a lot of effort and I listed 10 reasons why that is so.

See what develops,

Gerry

A flat economy in Germany:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/briefs/0,1574,1433851,00.html

miner
22-12-2004, 08:52 PM
You been to therapy Gerry[?][?][?].

stolwyk
23-12-2004, 10:24 AM
The US GDP in the 3rd quarter was running at a healthy 4%.

That and the lower oil price ($44.2, lost $1.5; higher stocks) made for a lower gold price: 439.1 (-$2.10). Silver: 6.80

USD: 81.97, Euro: 1.339. USD/JAP: 104.2

Commentators refer to a thin market till the beginning of Jan.



Here is something for people who want to read up about silver (Thanks Dub):

TED BUTLER: THE REAL GOLD:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=2&tid=158346&sym=&MSGNO=90404#90404

stolwyk
23-12-2004, 07:31 PM
Why Buy Gold? Up-date N° 16

1987 to 2004: From bear to bull: the multi-year trends and the long-term picture:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/zihlmann122204.html

Misc
23-12-2004, 09:57 PM
What is your vested interest Stolly ?? Recently have a gold filling ?
LOL

misc

miner
24-12-2004, 10:16 AM
He bought some gold shares and has been ramping the cr*p out of gold ever since on heaps of threads,usual gerry stuff buy up large then ramp to the sheep,sell then onto the next one,this site and others are full of him doing this for years[}:)].

tracker
24-12-2004, 10:26 AM
misc gotta admit that was one of the funnier posts Ihave read in a long time, and miner yeah well same old same old he wont give uptill the fat lady (or old man) sings, funny that.
all you guys have a safe and happy whatever you are having
roll on next year
tracker
hey nel 2005 will be a better one, if you read this thread will post same on other if get a chance
tracker

stolwyk
24-12-2004, 11:04 AM
Yes, some people have that nice Xmas feeling, haven't they. However, that shouldn't stop me although they wished I did, I suppose.

Hardly anyone to attend the "Main Gold Thread" and they won't allow this one to be a success in the meantime, hence these constant interruptions. That is the "Gerry Police" for you. I feel sorry for them as they don't create anything.

Very childish, however, I have tolerated them for 2 years now, so on we go.
________________________________________________

As to the Market, the Euro has risen well and is now 1.3503 (+1.14 cents) The USD is soft 81.33 (-0.6 cents). The gold price has risen $1.90 to $441.60 Note that the rise in the Euro didn't create a similar rise in gold and I hope to discuss that later.

Oil is soft and is now $44.18.

Here is something for the SILVER investors:

TOTAL CAPITALISATION OF THE WORLD'S SILVER MINES:
http://www.dani2989.com/gold/capitalizationsilvermines.htm

From Bob Chapman (GoldSeek.com):
" John Crudele at the New York Post is one of the people who is aghast at the way the governments distorts price inflation to suits its whims. “Hedonics isn't the only way the government quietly adjusts consumer prices.

The concept of Geometric Weighting is another convenient tool that keeps price increases from screaming at you in newspaper headlines. Geometric weighting is simply this: If a product goes up in price, it gets a smaller weighting in the consumer price index. If the price goes down, it counts for more.” He says how he figures that “It's easy to see how this would distort the CPI.”

MERRY XMAS TO YOU AND A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.

Gerry Stolwyk

stolwyk
24-12-2004, 03:13 PM
GOLD: WHAT IS HAPPENING?

After the Hedge funds and others drove up the price of gold to $458, they could see that the USD was being supported at 81.0 Index and that would put an end to further progress.

They withdrew, often shorting gold in the process till it hit $430. This was then followed by tax loss selling in Dec.

So, all-up, gold has had a fair bashing but stood up quite well. It returned to $438 and at that point some prominent TA people gave the signal that it could retrace.

Some big buyers would have been waiting for it to occur. I read an article which emphasized how quickly such advice travels around the world and even some Indians were caught out waiting for gold to go much lower than $430, last time.

Meanwhile, I posted 10 reasons why it would be difficult to get a meaningfull fall of the gold price: Page 7, date 22 Dec, 12.21 pm.

Sofar nothing has happened.

I must stress there would have been a heavy intervention in the silver price which lost some 16% in a couple of days. Comments about intervention re Gold and the USD were made as well.

So, summarizing, some buyers are waiting for the gold price to fall. It has been between $439 and $443 and it now $442. Trading wil be thin till Jan.

So, Gold has had a very torrid time in the last few weeks: it is hanging out to dry and is consolidating. Sofar, Demand, US deficits and the war in Iraq as well as threats by Bin Laden has stopped a fall in the gold price.
________________________________________

So, why should the Euro rise so much (1.35 at present) while the gold price is lagging behind? (The USD is a low 81.41):
1. The waiting for the retracement, referred to earlier.
2. The low oil price of $44.18
3. Hedgefunds and traders may have jumped from gold into the Euro and they have already benefitted from a good rise. And they'll stay there till the action runs dead. So, there is no incentive to go into gold just now but they may do so later.

4. The situation re the US intentions is confusing. Bush has made a statement on cutting back deficits. If he is sincere then gold may be affected somewhat. However, the issues are difficult particularly with OUTSOURCING becoming massive.

5. The relationship of the FED and the foreign Central Banks (CB's) of the dollar bloc. There still is a possibility that they may shoulder the US deficits in an indirect manner by *fully* partaking in the US Bond issues if the private investor retreats. Provided BUSH will make a serious move shortly about the deficits and other matters, this remote possibility cannot be ignored.

(There can be a agreement involving the universal backing of the USD below say 80-81 cents).

To do so, will mean more inflation in those countries partaking in those Bond issues. Not to do so wil mean that the USD won't do too well ( monetizing of debt)and that will affect most countries anyway as they already are today.

So, as far as GOLD is concerned, we are awaiting developments; the terrorist risk factor is always there and cannot be ignored.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk
26-12-2004, 09:33 AM
GOLD AND SHARE MARKET CRASHES

There is the: "GOLD IS NO GOOD BECAUSE THE PRICE DIDN'T RISE LAST WEEK" brigade, but few realize that gold stocks are also kept as INSURANCE and often it can be cheap insurance in the right conditions such as exist now IMHO.

Here are a few examples:

THE GREAT CRASH OF 1929:
"Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.
Contemplate and appreciate the monumental difference in investment returns during a serious bear market. Smart-money invested $10,000 in Homestake Mining (hard assets) in late 1929 - which increased in value to almost $62,000 by December 1935. This represents a compound rate of return of 35% per year in appreciation alone!

"It is meaningful to note that in late 1929 the value of Homestake Mining was about $80 per share. Moreover, during the next six years Homestake Mining paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends.

In fact the 1935 dividend alone reached $56 per share. That's almost a 70% dividend yield payout (basis 1929) in only one year! Indeed, hard asset investments (gold mining shares) were islands of economic refuge during the grueling years of the Great Depression".

________________________________________

THE 1973/74 MARKET CRASH:

The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 260% from its 1973 low (40) to its 1974 high (147).

This merits being redundant. During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost quadrupled".

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html



NEED I SAY MORE?

Gerry

Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
27-12-2004, 09:28 AM
I have often referred to the fact that the war in Iraq is "not going well".

And to the possibility that the country may be split up amongst 3 groups. That is the worst scenario of course.

There is a definitive anti USA mood there due to the massive destruction of life and property.

The people of Iraq are worried about the country; everyone else is thinking about the oil.

So, who will control some of the Southern oilfields? Iran has been referred to indirectly but could China manage to get an agreement?

What wil that do to the gold and oil prices (in USD) as the USD will move down IMHO.

And will there be more pressure on the Saudi regime and their oil fields? Who ultimately will benefit from that?

Isn't it true that it is a battle about controlling the world's resources?

Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks TOU4U.
Brussels, Dec 24, IRNA -- An international think-tank in a report published here on Thursday announced that the US campaign in Iraq has failed to achieve Washington`s desired goals, warning that anti-US
sentiments have deteriorated in Iraq.

"In Iraq, the US is engaged in a war it may already have lost," stressed the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) in its latest report on Iraq.
"Iraqi hostility toward the American-led occupation, more widespread and deeper rooted than the US has acknowledged, means the Bush administration`s policy there can no longer achieve its original aims."

The ICG stressed that the initial US objective was to turn Iraq into a model for the region.
It said the US initially planned to make Iraq a democratic, secular and free-market oriented government, sympathetic to US interests, not openly hostile toward Israel, and possibly home to long-term American military bases.

"But hostility toward the US and suspicion of its intentions among large numbers of Iraqis have progressed so far that this is virtually out of reach," the ICG warned.
The report further added that soaring resentment feeds the insurgency to make the transition process a source of the legitimacy deficit.

The ICG further called on the US to recognize the new realities under which it operates and accept the dual disengagement course.
The group said the US should gradually disengage from Iraq in political and military domains.

"Washington has to realize: you occupy the Iraq you have, not the Iraq you might wish to have later", states Robert Malley, Director of Crisis Group`s Middle East and North Africa Program.
"The credibility of Iraqi institutions depends essentially on their ability to respond to the Iraqi population`s needs and aspirations, which inevitably will entail distancing themselves from the US-led occupation",

Peter Harling, ICG`s Middle East Analyst.

stolwyk
27-12-2004, 01:22 PM
Hi Broke,

An interesting post of yours.

I am not in derivatives but others are.

Why gold and silver? Coins have been used for thousands of years; the advantage is that they are easily handled.

As to Platinum, I don't think there is much of it; therefore can't be used as a universal currency.

Cheers,

Gerry

stolwyk
27-12-2004, 02:26 PM
USA: CUTTING TAXES AND THE DAMAGE TO BE CAUSED.

The article to follow presents key arguments against the permanent reduction of tax. It is very important to the gold investor as constant reference is made to DEFICITS.

Extract:
"The tax cuts would reduce revenues by $276 billion in 2004, according to Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. Further, the interest costs associated with the enacted tax cuts would equal $20 billion, using Congressional Budget Office assumptions.

The total cost would therefore be $297 billion, or 2.6 percent of the economy (or GDP).
Using these estimates, the cost of the tax cuts account for more than half of the 2004 deficit, which CBO estimates to be $477 billion or 4.2 percent of GDP.

Based on these estimates, the deficit would have been 1.6 percent of GDP without the tax cuts":

TAX RETURNS
A Comprehensive Assessment of the Bush Administration’s Record on Cutting Taxes:

http://www.cbpp.org/4-14-04tax-sum.htm


Gerry

27-12-2004, 07:14 PM
G Stolwyk Just rename this thread the Gold & Silver For G Stolwyk's posts only and we could all save a lot of time.

Misc
27-12-2004, 10:51 PM
Talking to yourself ...... wots that the first sign of .. again ??

misc

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 01:16 AM
Broke,

Convertibility of dollar currency into gold ended in 1971:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2459841

This is a good page to read:
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Library/200304%20Gold.php

A useful site:
http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_monetary_history_faqs.htm

Gerry

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 10:13 AM
USD 80.71 (-0.49), Euro 1.3621 (+0.93 cents), Jap 103.05 (-0.61), oil 41.32 (-$2.93),

Gold 444.6 (+ $2.40) Silver 6.96 (+0.08, Dow down 51 points.



Re Oil prices, US tactics:
http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/analit/comments.php?id=1272&one=1

Extract:

"A vote last week by the US Senate to divert some 53 million barrels of crude, now destined for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), to the spot market to ease oil prices set off alarm bells in OPEC member countries, even though the measure requires the support of the House of Representatives to become law".

miner
28-12-2004, 01:29 PM
NEED I SAY MORE?

Gerry

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO,you have been ramping gold for bl**dy months give it a rest and get a life.

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 01:50 PM
Another enthusiastic contributor and head of the Gerry Police gang. Need I say more? Their job is to stalk and ruin my threads.

However, he is just a poster and can't stop my legally democratic activities. He was invited to contribute but refused. I don't discuss only Gold of course. Frequent references are made to the USD, other currencies, silver and oil.

The content has sofar been very well received on HotCopper where these items are well discussed.
___________________________________

OIL has fallen to $41.32 and I have been looking for the reasons. I believe these are:


Re Oil prices, US tactics:
http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/analit/comments.php?id=1272&one=1

Extract:

"A vote last week by the US Senate to divert some 53 million barrels of crude, now destined for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), to the spot market to ease oil prices set off alarm bells in OPEC member countries, even though the measure requires the support of the House of Representatives to become law".

AND:

Heating oil, crude plunge as supply fears ebb
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/12/27/financial1753EST0240.DTL

miner
28-12-2004, 02:38 PM
Gerry do yourself and all of us a favour and make a new years resolution to go to "RA"(rampers anonymous).

The hardest thing will be admitting to yourself and others in the RA group that you have a problem,but once you do the healing can start.So just stand up in front of the group and say my name is Gerry Stolwyk and I am a ramper.

Don't be scared as other people there have the same problem you do and you can talk it over with them and find support for your illness.

On a more serious note though Gerry stop missing out on your life as there is a whole world out there away from your beloved computer.

Also what exactly is the point in posting the gold and USD etc prices other than the close???,as by the time you have posted them they have changed.

The obvious reason you do this is to keep your ramping thread at the top of the page but was just wondering is there some other reason???.

Cheers
Miner

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 03:26 PM
Nice one Miner, but I am still waiting for a *relevant* contribution from you.

I can understand that you want to ruin this thread because the "Main thread" is not functioning. Obviously, something needed to be done to prevent this highly informative thread from becoming too successful.

The evidence is there because you are posting at least 3 times as often here now than you were when the "Main thread" was functioning.

Why not admit you have a problem and get an appointment with a psychologist for a start. Tell him about your paranoia; he may decide you may need a psychiatrist perhaps. Some shock treatment could do you a world of good.

I have already told you that your attitude would be looked at very negatively on HotCopper which is of course a massive site. Unlike here (The Gerry Police gang) there are no gangs operating on HC as far as I know.

Because I do research, my posts are very well received there; but there is a very strong team debating the various issues of the US situation, currencies and metals.

So, why not stop your nefarious activities and get an appointment quickly to get rid of that dreaded paranoia.

If you are able to, why not contribute in a meaningful manner instead of maliciously ruining this thread.

My posts are to inform people as to the realities of life. They are not written to suit you, of course. I am not anymore interested in what you are proposing. You have been a pest for 2 years now. Why does ST need you?

Now, I suppose you always want the last post don't you? Your psychologist could have a look at that problem as well.

Now stop your useless posts and get a LIFE.

Gerry

BTW, you wrote: "The obvious reason you do this is to keep your ramping thread at the top of the page but was just wondering is there some other reason???".

All I can say is, everytime you commit a felony and post some rubbish here, you are sending this thread to the top of the Topic's page.

Thanks for that; I really don't worry about that seeing that my detractors are so keen to give this thread so much publicity.

28-12-2004, 05:34 PM
Gerry you can still do what I suggested and change the TITTLE of this thread.

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 06:06 PM
Readers, can I introduce the 2nd member of the "Gerry Police", yes, ENIGMA. Like Miner, the head of the Police, Enigma is posting a lot more here than he did when the "Main Thread" was functioning.

Thus, like Miner he also wants to ensure that this thread won't be overly successful. (I wouldn't be surprised if Miner emailed him).

So, these 2 guys keep on posting useless stuff with the aim of ruining this thread.

Very childish but Miner insists this be done.

Meanwhile I carry on as usual. The readership is good and I certainly don't want to let them down.

Gerry

28-12-2004, 06:37 PM
Gerry THREE posts such a huge total by me compared to your miniscule total of approximately 140 posts. Change the name of the thread slightly as suggested and you can have it all to your self. Just for your Ramping rubbish.

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 07:10 PM
You forgot to tell us that yours were 3 posts in the last 2 days. normally, a rubbish post of yours would only be entered say once a fortnight.

However, you better report to Miner that you have done your job.

On HC, I have enough colleagues who are interested in these subjects and nobody complains. Some very busy threads there at times.

So, if people become nasty here while hiding behind an Alias, then I would think they could have been bullies in their childhood.

Cooper said that if I were posting alone, then that would offer someone else an opportunity to disagree or agree or discuss information. Therefore, he could'nt accept any complaints. I agree.

The problem with these interruptions is that these guys keep sending this thread to the top of the queue. I told Miner about that, but they don't understand.

Gerry

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 07:35 PM
I suppose the Readers want to see something more relevant.

Here is a Pro-gold report. If you disagree please discuss it rather than telling me I am a ramper (10 pages, thanks B. Robertson).

http://www.realwealthreport.com/a/5PowerfulForces.pdf



And here is an influential USA person who thinks that the US debts should be forgiven ( Thanks B. Robertson).

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Latest+Publications/2004/Dialynas+Paper.html

miner
28-12-2004, 09:35 PM
You have been pulled up for your ramping for years on every site you post on gerry including HC so BS all you like but we know your game old boy[:0][}:)][:X].

miner
28-12-2004, 09:39 PM
"Also what exactly is the point in posting the gold and USD etc prices other than the close???,as by the time you have posted them they have changed".

So why do you gerry????????????.

Cheers
Miner

28-12-2004, 09:41 PM
Gerry 3 posts of rubbish pointing out your Ramping compared with 140 of your gibberish trying to imitate intelligent posting. You have yet to prove G Stolwyk is not an alias Just like the other names you post under. I suspect Mick100 might be another one of your names. Gerry you only have to make a small change to the title of this thread to have it all to yourself. You screamed like hell when a Newby Paragon exposed you for what you are. You have to remember that all new posters are not inexperienced novices that you can suck in.

stolwyk
28-12-2004, 11:32 PM
These kids just can't stop putting in rubbish posts.

You need to remember that the same market info I post on HC normally is posted here as well. And it is nice to have the data together and see if any conclusion can be made.

I do that on HC where I produce a report and opinion at the same time. They very much appreciate it and someone told me that again this morning. Also, you may find a very useful web address with it as well as there was this morning.

There are overseas readers as well and although some will use a computer, they would prefer these numbers as well as an opinion or comment, older people more so perhaps. I do get feedback as well as my Hotmail address is known on HC.

Remember, even if I left out the numbers, there will still be a post with comment or opinion, so your argument that I want to take top position is false and you know it.

You are looking at this thing from a trader's viewpoint. I don't and don't intend to.

Miner, you are forgetting that you are just a poster and certainly am not in a condition to tell me anything.
Why should I try to push this thread to the top as you guys are doing it already?

Everyone can be pulled up for ramping. I pulled you up a few times here. There is always someone who will say that someone else ramped.

I have a very good image on HC and the word "ramper" hasn't been mentioned for quite some time.
I only have one name on HC and ST and it is my real name. (Enigma, you lied as Mick100 is not me, don't try to lie your way out of a difficult situation. It should be relatively easy to spit these 2 names apart but you don't have the ability or because you belong to a gang, you won't; it doesn't suit).

I gave my telephone number to someone from Australia who didn't believe me but does so now.

I think that Winner or Dimebag could possibly believe me.

As I said, you two are of the "Gerry Police gang" and you act in concert as these 3 previous posts once again show (Look at the timing). You shelter behind fake names and exhibit thuggish and malicious behaviour.

Your job is to bring this site down as mentioned before. If it weren't you wouldn't be putting in these rubbish posts once again.

My job is to expose your wayward activities to the Readers (not all are posters) and I believe I have been successful.

After all, they will see pages with useful information obtained at some cost, careful work and time, but they will also see your rubbish posts designed to ruin this site.

My job is not to convince you and I didn't set out to do that.

Shame on you lot, members of a gang, trying to make it difficult for me and Readers.

That is my opinion,

Gerry

tracker
29-12-2004, 09:46 AM
hey gerry
i am so dissappointed i didnt even get a mention
ditto to the above fellow comrades in arms
tracker

29-12-2004, 09:58 AM
Gerry an it is our mission to point out you are a ramper and I will stop posting if you change the tittle as I have suggested Make it a Gerry Stolwyk only thread.

29-12-2004, 10:03 AM
Gerry you say this thread is functioning. So you call a thread that has 80% posts by one poster a well functioning thread. It seems you need to brush up your education as well. Or is it a sign of increasing mental diabilaty.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 10:59 AM
Enigma,

You wrote: "It seems you need to brush up your education as well. Or is it a sign of increasing mental diabilaty".
Comment: Yes, you better check for Alzheimers or Parkinson: "diabilaty"

I did say you 2 guys are malicious.

Example:
Enigma: "Gerry 3 posts of rubbish pointing out your Ramping compared with 140 of your gibberish trying to imitate intelligent posting"

That smacks of jealousy. Because you don't understand the content that doesn't mean that I don't. I write similar stuff at HC (which doesn't have any gangs such as the one you belong to) and it is gratefully received and discussed.

Of course, with them having a massive amount of posters compared with ST, their judgement is preferred: your opinion doesn't mean much.

BTW, you doubted my writing under my real name. Since I mentioned Dimebag and Winner, you went quiet. You are also unjustly accusing Mick 100>more malice. And you are not prepared to withdraw that accusation. That shows your personality: still, a good hallmark of a gang member.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Miner-Examples of malice:
From Cooper, date 24 Oct, 11.39 am. Disputing Miner's claim I was ramping. He was right-I didn't ramp:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20538&whichpage=2&SearchTerms=STU

BSG: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17288&whichpage=1&SearchTerms=BSG

Clearasmud says: "collect all the facts"
Miner: "Good one Gerry hastle Rev about ramping WRONG until he leaves then start ramping on a thread he started".
Miner didn't check the facts and it here that malice comes in.

Thread Uranium: Example of Malice.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21021&SearchTerms=URANIUM

Miner accusing me creating this thread to push SMM. I declared that interest on the SMM thread previously.

Following up a question, I did mention later a number of Australian companies of which SMM was one. Perfectly above board, I think.

I set up this thread to investigate American and Canadian companies-I have already spent some 10 hrs on it.

Obviously, the results could benefit readers. Miner is not interested in that, wants to grab every opportunity to justify to himself that I am a consistent ramper. Quite a malicious person, really.

Anyway, perhaps I should leave these IMHO unsavoury characters to plan more dirty games using faked names. How brave these 2 are.

Next time they appear again, Readers will already know what they are up to: ruining this thread and displaying malice.

Gerry

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 12:03 PM
Market: not much change but gold fell $1.10 to $443/50 due to an improvement in consumer sentiment from 92.6 in Nov to 102.3 in Dec.

This improved the USD somewhat, still low at 80.72

From Bloomberg:
Extracts:
The extent of long liquidation in the gold market has not lived up to our expectations and unless we break below $432 an ounce, it may not now occur,'' Andreas Maag, an analyst at UBS AG in Geneva, said in a report today. ``We have decided to upgrade our short-term gold price forecasts to $440 an ounce in one month and three months,'' Maag said

"The extent of long liquidation in the gold market has not lived up to our expectations and unless we break below $432 an ounce, it may not now occur,'' Andreas Maag, an analyst at UBS AG in Geneva, said in a report today. ``We have decided to upgrade our short-term gold price forecasts to $440 an ounce in one month and three months,'' Maag said

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aZHWO9FObczU


Gold sales by Central Banks (Thanks DUB):
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2004/1227.html

miner
29-12-2004, 12:46 PM
Man you are one sad old man Gerry,always gives me a laugh when you do these posts thinking of you looking up the file you have on me on your PC and posting some delusional rubbish from it.

See you did your edit trick at 140am last night,stewing all afternoon and half the night over my posts ay? hehe,get a life before it's to late Gerry.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 12:56 PM
As I said: MALICE

miner
29-12-2004, 01:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

As I said: MALICE


There is absolutely no MALICE in conning people out of there money by ramping though ay Gerry???.

Anyway enough fun for now it is holiday time after all(that means time to cut your umbilical cord to your PC and get a life for a few days at least Gerry)

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 01:08 PM
The word is MALICE as I have proven-No need to keep your details on file.

And the more rubbish posts you guys put up, the more posts will appear. One coming up shortly.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 01:22 PM
Posted at HC, time 21.21 pm yesterday.

There was a substantial set of influential TA people predicting a much higher dollar Index once it was moving to 83 cents. The implication was that Gold would move back.

Here we had world known Clive Maund who send off 2 warnings and even now isn't quite sure. Then we have Tim Woods of Financial sense and wasn't Hoogard one of them as well?

There were many others, although I did notice a herd complex there. Bruce Robertson reminded us that TA had called out quite a few tops in the past but had missed.

My opinion has always been that the USD Index, gold and oil are very tricky items to deal with at present, even with the use of FA. That is because of sudden unanticipated happenings, eg reasons why oil came down in the last 2 days.

______________________________

The situation so far.

After Clive Maund issued a somewhat positive statement on the USD -and he was one of the early ones- I prepared a post with 10 reasons setting out why it would be very difficult to bring Gold gold down in a meaningful way:

Subject + + positive gold price drivers + +
Posted 22/12/04 07:02 - 56 reads
Posted by stolwyk
Post #466083 - start of thread - splitview

Only a few more days of US tax loss selling left.

Positive Price drivers:

1. We are now waiting for Barclay to start up their ETF in NY and that ought to remove gold from the market, assuming their systems are clear.

2. The increased interest in Gold in China and more so in India: there are large numbers of people who are doing well and decide to invest more in Gold.

3. The US and worldwide deficits which are getting worse. Little has been done to reduce these.

4. The USD which is waiting for its next shock treatment.

5. Oil supply and security. There can't be a guarantee.

6. The political situation in the Middle East. There is a fear that Iraq may finish up being cut up.

7. The US army is having a hard time in Iraq. Plenty of people getting killed and this results in anti US hatred.
Reports indicate a massive expenditure to come of some $200 Bill. for Iraq and Afghanistan in 2005.

8. The constant fear of massive sabotage by terrorists.

9. The not so good US international standing in Europe and the Middle East. This results in boycott of American goods and the phasing out the dollar, wherever possible.

10. The evidence that US inflation and interest rates are moving up.
I added:
11. The Euro may provide also a shield from time to time to Gold as it does so now:


Gold prices don't move in a straight line, so there will be retracements from time to time. Sofar, these have been minor considering the massive selling and shorting of gold by Hedge funds not too long ago and the current tax loss selling.

To bring the gold price down in a meaning full way requires a great effort as mentioned before.

At the same time, these constant positive and powerful gold price drivers may quickly restore gold to a good setting after any retracement".

Gerry
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment:
Sofar, there is litle incentive to push the dollar higher but every inducement to raise the Euro, now 1.363 and rising again.

That would at least stop Gold from falling and it is benefitting to some extent, now $444.75.

The Jap=103.0 which gives a bit of room to get the USD down from its already low 80.59. However, it is possible that if the USD will fall to an equivalent Jap 101 or 102, then the Japs may intervene as it is understood, they did last time. They may do so at USD=80+.

See what happens in the light trading conditions this week.

Gerry

miner
29-12-2004, 01:37 PM
Another one of your useless I'll guess what might happen posts Gerry,saying the same stuff you have been saying for months.

Wouldn't it just be easier to buy up large on your gold shares as you have and then just let them do there thing,rather than spending your whole life ramping gold after you have bought gold shares???.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 02:08 PM
I noticed you make use of emails (a type of cut and paste job) on the Main Thread. Yes, I don't think you will be commenting much on some of the intricacies associated with the USD, gold and other matters (USA). A bit too complicated for you, isn't it?

And then having you commenting on my delivery, is a bit rich, I think. Why do you keep on trying to score points? Try to be original and contribute something of your own, say an expose.

Your opinion doesn't count in this case because I line up with the massive HC and their critiques. They appreciate my financial posts so you don't come into it, sorry.

You ought to be ashamed trying to upset someone like me in the Xmas season by introducing rubbish posts designed to ruin this thread. Talking about you spreading X-mas cheer! It does show that you are a cunning, ruthless, deceitful and malicious person IMHO.

Why would ST want you?

29-12-2004, 04:54 PM
GERRY Still raving on about how great you are. Also you are dead right most of share trader posters would be very glad to see you stay on Hot Copper you are so proud of.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 06:43 PM
Go home kid,

You have misbehaved on this site during the Xmas period: open your eyes and read the thread.

Someone is waiting with the strap once you get home.

stolwyk
29-12-2004, 08:45 PM
THE BATTLE FOR RESOURCES.

It is clear that China is very serious about locking in large scale resourses. And as people know, this could have ramifications in the future for competing nations.

The following important article explains the progress made by China sofar:

China Seeks To Control Supplies of Metals And Minerals At Source, And Eritrea Fits The Bill:

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=263

miner
29-12-2004, 09:26 PM
You naughty naughty boy Enigma,6 of the best for you ouch.

If only we were smart enough like guru gerry and could contribute original cut n pastes like him we would then know why pog and the usd move.

I'm sure they move because golds atomic weight is 196.967 so it falls and USD is light so it lifts it back up,but no doubt I'm wrong and the ramping cut n paste edit guru is right.

Mick100
29-12-2004, 10:16 PM
ENIGMA, miner - Why don't you two get a life.

I often refer to this thread for a summary of the overnight action in gold, currencies and oil.
It saves me time.

Whatever motivates Gerry to provide this info is of no concern to me. I for one, am interested in the info on this thread and I would guess that there are many more who also appreciate the fact that Gerry makes this effort on behalf of readers.


Mick

nelehdine
30-12-2004, 07:32 AM
Only one word needed to summarise overnight gold action .... UGLY !!!

Disc: Hold NCM

Gold dn $7

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 11:02 AM
USD: 80.86 (+0.24). Overnight US Data shows the economy still in a positive mood. However I don't consider the rise to be extravagant.

Oil: 43.64 (+1.98)--One reason for the rise: terrorist activity in Saudi.

Euro: 1.36: no change.

JAP: 103.8 (+0.6) A rise .

There is poor coverage about the reasons Gold dropped $7.40 to $436.1 One reason: expected interest rates, was already known. The USD firmed slightly, so gold shouldn't have dropped more than $1 at the most. The Euro was also steady.

Only yesterday reference was made that the Longs increased and there was still a gap to be filled.

Bloomberg: Dec 28:
"Hedge funds and other large speculators increased their holdings in gold futures by 2.8 percent to 90,253 contracts in the week ended Dec. 21, according to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission yesterday. In the previous week, net futures purchases by funds fell to 87,794 contracts, the lowest since Sept. 28".

Now, someone was saying that gold was overbought.

Summarizing, there are conflicting reports.

The USD hasn't risen much so we may have to look for other reasons:
1. The Central Banks may have unloaded gold in the dying days of this year. They were entitled to a total of 500 tonnes but only half had been sold so far.
Considering that trading was thin, a hefty parcel can swing the price quickly.

2. Tax loss selling will be completed this week. FUNDS may stil be squaring the books and liquidate holdings.

It has been said that because some prominent TA predict a prominent rise in the dollar in Jan/Febr (I don't), people have been holding back from buying gold. That may be so, I don't know.

All I can say is that a fall of $7.40 for gold based on a steady Euro and only very slight rise in the USD Index, is overdone. However, dumping in thin trading conditions may have taken place.

Gerry

miner
30-12-2004, 11:11 AM
Mick100 that's a surprise from the man who is very bullish on gold,some of us have watched Gerry ramping for years and know exactly what motivates him to do these threads and it isn't from the goodness of his heart,far from it.

May be of no concern to you but it is to others who don't like seeing newbie's getting ripped off,this site and others are full of Gerry's ramping and the methods he uses.

When Gerry sells his gold shares this thread will die just like all his other ramping threads.

Cheers
Miner

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 12:09 PM
Miner wrote: "When Gerry sells his gold shares this thread will die just like all his other ramping threads".

Comment:
Many threads have been started by KIWI and Revhead. They maintained them for a while then sold the shares. I then picked up the thread and carried on.

Miner, when trading would have been active on a thread, when he sold his position, he dropped it and started with a new venture and another thread. Obviously, none of them maintained the old threads.

If they had, they wouldn't be having time to trade because they would be maintaining old threads for years while they didn't hold these shares. In any case, some of the companies disappeared.

It is common for some threads to last for years as was noted on Ozestock and also on ST. That was because the interest was there so there were the people to keep the threads going (SKC, AIA and now ATR)..

But one can't expect a person to hold on to a stock forever in the face of a heavy loss (Latest-CMQ). So, the thread dies, however, it may be brought back to life again later.

One can't expect a person to write posts on a thread forever.

I said this about MINER: "Talking about you spreading X-mas cheer! It does show that you are a cunning, ruthless, deceitful and malicious person IMHO".

So, all his posts must be seen in that light. So this time he writes a very inviting post to Mick: inviting him to believe.

But underneath it all you will find a nervous, ruthless hardened paranoid who even calls in the assistance of a gang to achieve his evil means.

MALICE and spreading confusion, using untruths are his tools of trade. The Readers would have seen the evidence on this and previous pages: every effort is made by him and his assistants to ruin this thread.

Very strange that he and his gang solely concentrate on *my* perceived ramping. There is plenty of heavy ramping somewhere else but even knowing that, they won't act and never will. That is MALICE for you.

I had to do their job and draw the attention of 2 people because of their ramping.

So, I wouldn't take any notice of Miner's soft spoken words. He will use any means to serve his end.

He suffers from ramper paranoia, won't do anything about it, ignores everyone else's ramping but is totally focussed on my posts and indeed reads all of them.

WHY? Not because of the content which he may not understand but he is trying to trick me whenever he can. It is a sickness, unfortunately the people who attend this sick person, suffer as well.

Meanwhile there is ramping everywhere.

MORE MALICE, please!

Gerry
I wrote a post on the market. One could have expected Miner to contribute as well, if he could. But no, instead another post of this person who engages in nefarious activities: a post to ruin this thread.

miner
30-12-2004, 12:28 PM
As you well know Gerry the BIG difference is that you ramp non stop on your threads professing they are going to go through the roof,then nothing after you sell to the sheep,like ASC etc ay Gerry.

"Talking about you spreading X-mas cheer!",so ripping people off by ramping is a way of doing this is it???.

You can post all the rubbish reply's you like Gerry but we know your game so as long as you keep playing it we will keep posting,when we can be bothered.

Anyway will leave you to it for now old boy as better things to do,was going to go prospecting today but a tad wet so may just dolly some species in the shed.

Misc
30-12-2004, 12:32 PM
I wonder how long it will be before Stolwyck is banned from this site ?
At least 1 site in Oz banned him a year or so ago..... go figure LOL

misc

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 12:39 PM
That is true. You seem to be stalking me, I notice.

I have been posting on HotCopper since May 2001; A massive site but no problems. Have been here since March 2002.

You registered in May 2004.

Rest assured, I won't be banned from this site as long as I follow the rules.

Miner doesn't. He is full of hate and won't stop.

Suggest you turn your attention to him, instead.

Gerry

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 01:08 PM
Miner,
RE your reference to ASC. It is commonly known that I lost money. Also, that was 2 years ago; you must be desperate.

You wrote: "You can post all the rubbish reply's you like Gerry but we know your game so as long as you keep playing it we will keep posting,when we can be bothered".

Two things: "we will keep posting". That indicates that you are not alone. I have already provided proof that you have a gang to assist you. Obviously, they owe you.

"When we can be bothered". Oh yes you will. You and your mates are eagerly wanting to ruin this thread, so, sure you can be bothered alright.

MALICE AND MORE MALICE.

Gerry

30-12-2004, 03:46 PM
Gerry I would not know Miner if I fell over him my aim is to try & get rid of a despicable pest of a ramper that trys to disguise ramping as imformation YOU Gerry YOU

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 04:33 PM
There is a post where Miner suggests to you to "look after" my posts.

However, I already identified you as a liar (That Mick100 case), so, I don't think Readers will pay too much attention to your whimping.
You don't know it but they would have noticed your nefarious activities and your heavy flaming. That gives your character away.

And now you want to get rid of me as well, keep trying, junior. You don't care about the Readers who would miss my financial and other posts, if I went, don't you?

You'll never get rid of me without ST's approval. Why not ask them and see how you get on? Perhaps you may get banned just for your behaviour on these and other pages!
_________________________

Miner,
You said:
As you well know Gerry the BIG difference is that you ramp non stop on your threads professing they are going to go through the roof",

"Ramping nonstop on my threads, he". You want yourself seen to.

For starters you don't say where I ramped and I alreadfy mentioned 3 malicious cases where you said, I did ramp but it wasn't the case. MALICE is one of your virtues.

A mate of yours ramped till I drew his attention. DavidRob often ramps on nearly every thread, but don't touch him otherwise I'll have a piece off you.

So, there are people ramping on a lot of threads but you don't want to know them. Your malicious streak forces you to focus on me only and you will leave bona fide rampers to it.

BTW, me writing a series of posts without a reply is not ramping, Cooper decided. After all the opportunity is given to anyone else to reply. If they don't that doesn't mean I ramped, scoundrel.

So, you need to be a bit more careful in the future.

That of course shouldn't stop you as you two (enigma included) are hell-bent to ruin every thread I start. The evidence is there on previous pages to see. And enigma already said he wanted to get rid of me.

MALICE AND MORE MALICE, he MINER.

Of course some people mistakenly think they can control others by using this "ramper" weapon. Don't forget you are just a poster.

Gerry

30-12-2004, 04:44 PM
Gerry it sounds like Mick 100 your alto ego in my opinion is the only one that would miss your posts. Have hot copper temporily banned you at moment.

30-12-2004, 04:47 PM
I will suport anybody that is trying to get rid of you pest. Talk about flaming have a look at your own post count. Near enough to 800 above anybody else. Meglomania is a disease and you have it.

30-12-2004, 04:56 PM
Misc Tell us more in detail please about Gerrys Banning. Thanks in advance.

stolwyk
30-12-2004, 05:07 PM
Readers,

I did mention "the battle for resources" on 29 Dec 2004. The problem is that not only can China lock in the most important resources but can finally set the prices of its products much easier.

Here is an article which discusses these and other problems (Thanks Dub):

Mondo Washington
by James Ridgeway
Homeland Insecurity
The American empire goes for broke—and it could be heading that way
December 28th, 2004 2:41 AM


WASHINGTON, D.C. Running below the surface of the year-end self-congratulatory assertions of American supremacy (as in Monday's Washington Times: "The world really is becoming more 'American' ") are warnings, often ignored, of our decline. The steady loss of the dollar against the euro is one. The spiraling trade deficit is another.

And in the past weeks, there were two serious economic signs signaling momentous change, if not outright decline.

The first concerns China's invasion of Canadian oil fields, heretofore a U.S. energy fiefdom. The second came in the form of an all-but-hidden report from the Department of Agriculture that America, the breadbasket of the world, is now a net importer of food.


OIL If the half-dozen planned projects worth $2 billion go through, Canada, our No. 1 energy supplier, could end up sending as much as one-third of its total oil exports to China. One project would give the Chinese a 49 percent interest in a 720-mile-long pipeline running from Alberta to British Columbia. The Chinese are also eyeing an expansion of a second Canadian pipeline system, and they're discussing gaining an interest in companies with oil leases.

Much of this interest centers on extracting oil from oil sands. In the U.S., prospects for an oil sands development during the energy crisis of the early 1970s never got off the ground. It was discussed along with coal gasification as a possible alternative to what the industry at the time insisted were declining reserves. But when prices were deregulated and rose, along with profitability, all the talk about coal gas and oil sands died down. For the big international oil companies, oil sands historically have been dicey because of the high development cost, and hence reduced profitability. However, as Kang Wu of the East-West Center in Honolulu told The New York Times last week, "For China, it is foremost about securing supply and secondly about profits." And that is one reason China is willing to go so far abroad.

China's energy consumption is up some 40 percent in the past year, making it the second-biggest energy consumer in the world, ahead of Japan. Its booming economy depends on fossil fuels, especially oil imports.

By 2020 China is expected to be importing two-thirds of its oil, some 80 percent of it from the Middle East. It currently imports oil from Oman and Yemen, and China has explored deals with Saudi Arabia. Its imports of natural gas come from the Middle East as well as from Australia, and there is a possibility of China importing Caspian Sea gas through an extensive pipeline that would run all the way from Shanghai across the country into the rich Caspian finds of Central Asia.

As China's energy needs grow, emphasis shifts to protecting supply lines running through South Asia, some of them close to the always contentious straits between Taiwan and China. For the U.S. military, protecting energy supply lines always has been a prime consideration of national security. And these economic shifts in Asia can only mean a further strain on U.S. military operations in that part of the world.

More immediately, a diversion of Canadian petroleum resources to China is about the worst thing that could happen to the U.S. Since the '70s energy crisis, we have been seeking to diversify supplies, trying to shed our dependence on the Middle East, and as a result the U.S. now relies increasingly on Canada and Mexico.

We have always viewed Canadian energy resources as a backup—to be used when we are in need. To say they are taken for granted is an understatement. We view them as our own. Free trade makes t

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 11:11 AM
These conniving two (Miner and Enigma) are not too concerned with my perceived ramping, no, Enigma cracked up and confessed he wants "to get rid" of me. He will have a long wait: his list of misdemeaners is growing by the day.

In nearly all cases Miner mentioned I was a ramper but no evidence is forthcoming.

His behaviour has become more paranoid over time and he now knows that I am not leaving no matter what he tries to do. And this realisation has made this already viscious character more malicious.

So, instead, he is now hell-bent trying to destroy the threads, I created. And so, both are having a go, feeding from each other: Page 9, 28 Dec, times 10.35, 10.39 and 10.41

Did both of them care about the X-mas season and leaving me alone during this period?
Why? A very good time to harass Stolwyk time and time again.

Both tend to replace warnings about ramping with wisecracks designed to ruin this and other threads.



From Miner, this thread:
1. "Still discussing with yourself I see Gerry, didn't your mum tell you that you will go blind if you play with yourself".

2. "He like others has the fever Arco and still cant read by the look of it".
3. "Anyway Gerry the higher POG goes the more my amalgam that's growing by the day in the burdan will be worth,nice gritty stuff it is too,choice ay".

4. "Gerry the cut n paste king".

5. "Still playing with yourself I see Gerry".

6. "Gerry is just a cut and paste ramper as you can see by his answer,same old stuff,oop's and the "edit" king,ay gerry.

Comment: My post was not ramped-pure malice on Miner's part, he tries to be pally with someone else.

7. "He bought some gold shares and has been ramping the cr*p out of gold ever since on heaps of threads,usual gerry stuff buy up large then ramp to the sheep,sell then onto the next one,this site and others are full of him doing this for years".

8. "You been to therapy Gerry".

9."NEED I SAY MORE?"
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO,you have been ramping gold for bl**dy months give it a rest and get a life

Comment: no evidence presented-Miner quoted this but my post he got it from, was not ramped.

STU thread:
1. The way your going Enigma you will have to stay after school and write 100 time's on the black board,"Headmaster Stolwyk is ALWAYS right and has NEVER ramped a day in his life not once".


2. Nice bombing run there C9 couple of 500 pounders right on target,you will have to paint a Gerry on the side of your plane,4 more and you'll be an ace.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment. Although some of his remarks are comical, that is not the point. Not once did he contribute a post discussing Gold, the USD or Silver as the thread topic asked him to do.

Far from it; it is of course possible that he is too afraid to discuss these in case he gets tripped up; in that case he and his mate should leave this thread. But these 2 wayward characters won't do that and are enjoying every minute of their illegal incursions.

Both are patronizing and self confident knowing that their fake names (aliases) won't expose them and of course their back is covered by their mates, a type of gang structure. It has been 4 against one (me) at times and that is how they operate: no medals for bravery!

Do they take account of the Readers. No, "who are they?".

The examples I gave, are just a few; there is no need to take up more space.

So, will these 2 devious characters change? No, they are hardened operators who don't care. And the more they are cornered, the more viscious they will be.

Would Hotcopper have banned these two? Answ: Yes, long ago.
They don't have time for stalkers trying to destroy someone else's work. They did ban some.

So Readers, you will hear Miner's and Enigmas's protestations but their records show that they are operating according to plan: to make me leave.

Will I? No, of course. These 2 lightweights and gang members won't win, no matter how malicious they are.

I have promised Readers to show my presence here and the readership is go

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 12:19 PM
The Market

One report did mention that possibly gold was offered for sale by the tsunami survivors who wanted to re-establish themselves/paying of debt or simply surviving.

That is logical I think: Asian countries are big holders of gold and if say up to 150,000 people are dead, their next of kin may sell gold to survive. Together, this could amount to a sizable parcel, enough to bring the price down in thin trading.
Fancy yourself to be in such a position. A terrible situation.

Some writers think that the dollar will rise in Jan/Febr (How?) and that gold could fall further.

Current data: Euro: 1.363 (+0.0022); JAP 102.93 (-1.07) USD 80.64 (-0.42)
oil 43.45 (-0.29) Dow -29 points.

Gold 437.4 (+1.51)
Trading is just about finished.

The Chicago manufacturing report wasn't that good:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aGal3EY3k07c

Someting for silver investors:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Rakhimov/dec302004.html

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Gerry Stolwyk

31-12-2004, 02:35 PM
Stolwyk Still Flaming as usual and who in there right mind would not like to get rid of a ramper like you. Especially as you state you cannot stop ramping.

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 03:52 PM
You as one of the brooding plotters didn't get a good write-up sofar and I would mention that you have a long list of misdemeaners enough to get you banned 3 times given the right chatsite.

You are a vicious malicious person actually, clutching at straws: I mentioned a few times that I wrote under my name and you never queried it. Now you did so because you wanted a winning argument. When I mentioned Winner or Dimebag for certification, you quickly dropped that one.

Then you jumped to the next one: Mick100. You already mentioned before, I was him and I told you, I was not. Now suddenly you brought him back again and insisted he was me. I told you that was not not true and you then took the slimy attitude that "in your opinion", I was still him.

For starters, styles are different; I note that Mick operates on the NZ site but I rarely do. He discusses items, I wouldn't be discussing but above all, he doesn't post that much, I think. And I would hate to have an Alias if he doesn't do any work.

But of course keep believing it, at least it is a support but I doubt the Readers will take much notice.

You are an arrogant lightweight and you wrote this:
"Especially as you state you cannot stop ramping".

Those are your words, not mine but they are expected coming from you.

Why are you so malicious, kid?

Gerry

31-12-2004, 05:17 PM
Gerry Ihave every reason to suspect you are very careless with the truth.If you were Mick 100 you would never admit it anyway. Like the other aliases you post under that have been mentioned on this site. You also said you would keep making your (ramping) posts unless you were barred.

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 05:34 PM
E,
You were cornered some time ago and now you are playing a desperate dangerous game. Also, you seem to want the last post as well.

You wrote: "Like the other aliases you post under that have been mentioned on this site".

Which were the other aliases, that have been mentioned on this site? Where were these mentioned?

You then wrote: "You also said you would keep making your (ramping) posts unless you were barred".

Show me where I said that.

Gerry

31-12-2004, 05:41 PM
You say you will keep posting all the time Gerry (IE Ramping)

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 06:16 PM
Listen mate: You are the one who says, I ramp.

You are a member of the Gerry Police but you shouldn't be asking questions. Instead provide proof. Do so.

Seeing that New Year's eve is coming, I can't be bothered to carry on this useless conversation unless you bring in more unjust accusations.

tracker
31-12-2004, 08:23 PM
i would carry on gerry but guess what mate you aint really worth it.
one thing i will say about you, is that if nothing more than a pain in the @rse, for your constant obnoxious, prolific posts, you are A CONSISTANT pain in the @rse lol
pity many good posters have left st , much of whom I beleive would still be here if you didnt feel the need to TAKE CHARGE
now on that note mate
i wanna wish you a very happy time, and with the deepest hope that your shares go up 400% each and every one,you will either be so busy counting cash ya wont have time to post,or you will not feel the need to ramp as the market is doing what it should for you
either way its win win for most of us
so again have a great NY etc etc make a bundle, and maybe just maybe get a life or a hobby or a wife of even a veggie garden lol
to your health
as always
yours truely
tracker

tracker
31-12-2004, 08:35 PM
didnt want to edit post lol
catching up to gerry maybe???
nah just wanted to say if I am so humbly still considered a "gerry police"
I am happy to hold the flag when neccessary
for truth justice and the aussie way lol
hey gerry where ya been on hc (not that i really look that much tell ya the truth bunch or ramper egomaniacs without souls remind you of anyone gerry??
tracker

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 09:06 PM
Hi Tracker,

I didn't like to see you becoming involved in this bruising encounter as you were not the centre of attention in this case. So thanks for staying away.

If people want to leave that is up to them. I could have left as well and have reasons too but I am not gutless. If I do leave then I certainly won't be blaming anybody.

Anyway, I wish you a prosperous New Year and fruitful posting next year.

Gerry

31-12-2004, 09:51 PM
Gerry you are to gutless to admit you are a ramper. Or is it self denial.

stolwyk
31-12-2004, 10:00 PM
New Year's Eve my boy or have you forgotten? It pays to be sensitive at times. Your comment was never necessary.

Mick100
01-01-2005, 09:50 AM
Gerry, ENIGMA, tracker and miner.

I notice none of you have entered the 2005 stock picking comp. on the ASX yet.

Have any of you got the guts to show your hand.
Let's see them. :)



Mick

01-01-2005, 02:42 PM
Mick 100 I have suspicions of your motives but will play the game 5 of my present holdings have been entered.

Mick100
01-01-2005, 03:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Mick 100 I have suspicions of your motives but will play the game 5 of my present holdings have been entered.


Just interested to see what sort of companies your into
Well done



Mick

tracker
02-01-2005, 09:18 AM
Mick100
I predominantly day trade so longer term picks for me dont count, sorry to dissappoint I have NEVER read a company report and know nothing of fundamentals at all
so i guess i am off the hook
as a long term trade for me is about 2 hours,but am interested in what you all have to say
tracker

Mick100
02-01-2005, 09:48 AM
quote:Originally posted by tracker

Mick100
I predominantly day trade so longer term picks for me dont count, sorry to dissappoint I have NEVER read a company report and know nothing of fundamentals at all
so i guess i am off the hook
as a long term trade for me is about 2 hours,but am interested in what you all have to say
tracker




Yeah, OK tracker
Fair enough

Mick100
02-01-2005, 09:52 AM
C'mon Gerry
It's been 36 hours since you last posted
What's going on?
Should have recovered from NY eve party by now.


Mick

stolwyk
02-01-2005, 10:24 AM
Someone suggested as the $A rises with the gold price, there is little if anything left for the Investor.

Obviously, an investor needs to decide if an investment in gold/goldshares is for him. Gold/goldshares are used as insurance against certain catastrophic events as well.

I think one needs to make a distinction between the metal gold, gold mining stocks and gold exploration stocks.

As to the latter, the smaller ones have not benefitted as yet but should do IMHO, if the POG rises much higher.

Of all these catagories the larger exploration stocks are my preference. These expand their gold assets over time and if successful doing so, normally increase the share price in $A faster than the price of Gold in $A.

The overall price of 6 explorers (5 Canadians) has increased by 22% in $A since Aug. 9.

During that time, gold increased by 9.75% in USD and 9.2% in $A.

The reason is that good explorers are dynamic, when they increase their resources significantly or do a BFS (Bankable feasibility Study), then the increasing value of these assets must be converted into increased share prices even if the USD did not change over time.

Taking it a stage further, if the gold price is $440 and rises 13.6% to $500, then the share price of these explorers should rise say twice or say 30%, right?

Wrong. At a certain point, Investment demand rises strongly and there will be heavy competition for these somewhat rare exploration stocks at these levels.

One of my stocks is $CAN. 9.25. At $US500/ounce, I would want at least $CAN14. So, in $A it could rise some 50% while the USD gold price rises 13.6%.

And that is the reason, I invested. I don't hold the metal gold at present.

One can't always predict how gold will move over time, hence the events described cannot be replicated.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
02-01-2005, 07:02 PM
THE US CPI IS NOT 3.5% BUT INSTEAD IS 6%:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Benson/dec302004.html


With Paper Money - Confidence is Suspicion Asleep:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/matlack123104.html

I am not sure if the outcome will be that bad but yes, People will need to start saving.

Gerry

miner
02-01-2005, 08:30 PM
Hell Gerry look at what you have posted,which is but one reason you should get a life,I got a nice feed of paua today yummy.

Enigma,a year or so ago some guys from ozestock that were sick to death of Gerry's ramping and trying to take over the site started sharescene,and they banned him from day one,as far as I know.

If so have to be a first to be banned before you even do a post,says it all .

Mick100 I have never entered a stock picking comp and never will,not my thing,but if you care to look you will see that I have had the "guts" to pick one or two shares over the years,some doing better than others,but that's part of the game.

Cheers
Miner

dingdong
02-01-2005, 09:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by stolwyk


The overall price of 6 explorers (5 Canadians) has increased by 22% in $A since Aug. 9.

During that time, gold increased by 9.75% in USD and 9.2% in $A.


O Stolwykos God of Ramping, it would be unworthy of me to point out that when it comes to gold rising 9.2% in $A since August you are talking out of your ass. It has actually gone nowhere, it was about AUD560 then and it is AUD558 now.

This is of course a worthy return for gold in REAL MONEY, ie Euros, Rand, AUD, CAD etc etc, on course for its usual 1% annual return.

stolwyk
02-01-2005, 10:55 PM
Miner, that info is false and you know it. It is also irrelevant. Sharescene was started because information was received that Ozestock and Hotcopper would be sold. Based on that some guys went ahead and founded Sharescene.

Ozestock had a lot of posters and threads at that time and I was actually only posting on about 3 of these. So, your reason that people founded Sharescene because of me, is false. But false rumours have been spread since.

The Leader of the to be formed Sharescene (SS) normally posted on Hotcopper and Ozestock and he went round to secure about 15 members. Alpha Centurian - who rarely posts here - and I were were asked to join the inner circle. (The leader knew me from my posting on Sharechat and the other sites. He wanted me because I regularly posted calculations).

We refused as we didn't want to leave HC to it. And I made some effort trying to stem the flow of people later on to SS.
However, by then I had tried out SS's system for 3 days.

One HC member accosted me and put it to me, why was I against people leaving for SS, yet I was posting at SS.

I said then: "ok, I'll post for another day or so at SS (I wanted to check out their system and I used that info later on) and then I shall never return there to post". Within 20 or so minutes, I was locked out of SS. (Someone reported back to them).

That was all there was to it. Last week one of the most important posters of SS mentioned something about SS on HC and was banned by SS as well. Actually, he is one of our best HC posters so their loss is our gain. What he did say is on a thread of HC.

(In both cases if this was said about HC while on ST, nothing would have happened).

SS must have realized the error of their ways; when there was a big shutdown at HC later on, I applied and I was let in again.

However, all this has nothing to do with ST. I can assure you it didn't do any damage to me on HC.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Unfortunately for you, it has nothing to do with your nefarious conduct here or my posting. You wanted to bring it up so as to damage me because your underhand treatment of me put you in a difficult position.

I did say you and Enigma work together and it appeared he had released that info. You are the leader of the Gerry Police team; that is too nice a name, I think.

How would it sound if I said you are the top dog of a pack of dogs attacking me? Doesn't that sound much better, malicious little man?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here is Cooper to Miner: From the STU thread):
24 Oct. Extract:
quote:
----------------------------------------
Originally posted by miner

After opening, price hit $1.07. Currently $1.00.

down 7c or 6.54%.

------------------------------------------

"Now at 127, which is just under a 40% gain from when Gerry started posting on this company...

I understand the need for vigilance when it comes to rampers. However, Gerry hasn't misrepresented this stock. IMHO he has pretty much called it as it has happened, and has even been good enough to let us know when he sold some of his holding.

Given Gerry has not "ramped" on this thread, perhaps criticism of his posts could be company specific, or of course to contradict a post you feel is made in error".

Comment from me: Cooper summed you up nicely.

-----------------------------------

Instead of trying to find something on me, Miner. you should try not to ruin threads with your insane remarks. Sofar, you haven't made one contribution of substance. The many rubbish posts from you on this thread are designed to pester and marginalize me. Are you a Leader? No, but Cooper is.


Gerry
Waiting for a substantive contribution from you in line with the topic. No "Cut and paste", please.

stolwyk
03-01-2005, 12:36 AM
Hi Abdab.

You are right, it was 560 on Aug 9 and I have 564 on Dec 30, so, no rise.

Don't know how that got in there, I was checking the 9.75% increase in the US gold price, found the correct answer was: 9.25% and must have written that as existing in $A.

Thanks for that. So, the line from my report on 2 Jan. 11.24 was reading:
"During that time, gold increased by 9.75% in USD and 9.2% in $A".

And that needs to be amended to read:
"During that time, gold increased by 9.2% in USD terms and nothing in $A terms".

The rest of that report can remain as is.

Cheers,

Gerry

miner
03-01-2005, 09:49 AM
The old edit trick at 2 in the morning man your sad,and the reason why your post below is ok and my one isn't???,anyway making a ball mill so may have a look later and see what your answer is old boy.

After opening, price hit $1.14. Currently $1.09.

It is seesawing somewhat.

Gerry


Originally posted by miner

After opening, price hit $1.07. Currently $1.00.

down 7c or 6.54%.

Mick100
03-01-2005, 11:43 AM
"Mick100 I have never entered a stock picking comp and never will,not my thing,but if you care to look you will see that I have had the "guts" to pick one or two shares over the years,some doing better than others,but that's part of the game."



=========================================


I haven't seen any worthwhile contribution regarding shares made by you miner.

Your usual line - "keep half an eye on this one" is of no use to me. I want to know why you like a particular share.

IMO, you are gutless.



Mick

miner
03-01-2005, 12:57 PM
I see you have allot to learn yet mick100,long posts don't necessarily = a good share to buy,and reading them puts other people's ideas in your head,there have been some very profitable short and sweet posts by myself and others over the years.

On occasion I have done longer posts but why should I???.

"keep half an eye on this one",is known as a heads up then it's up to you to do your own homework.

If I did long very bullish posts on gold like your mate gerry that would be ok though ay???.

Cheers
Miner

tracker
03-01-2005, 01:19 PM
i gotta agree with ya miner length and quantity do not make a share, no many how many times it is posted
personally i use miners tips as litterally the heads up that they are, ie this one looks promising watch it closely for a short term gain and longer possibly
you dont need billions of posts to make a share
short sharp and generally sweet make it better for me all round
keep it up miner and dont be discouraged your TL and 3rd eye make it all the more sweet, and it is a skill that should be encouraged as opposed to anything else
way to go
tracker

Packersoldkidney
03-01-2005, 01:26 PM
Mick.

Happy new year. Just a heads up on Miner. When Miner writes: "keep an eye on this one", this usually means there is a heavy weight of analysis of one sort or another behind his selection - an assessment contained not only in the resources at Miner's disposal, but also by his considerable range of contacts through various sectors related to the sharemarket. Thus "keep an eye on this one" is a very light phrase that contains a very heavy weight of intelligence and information behind it: also heavy in that most Share Trader people who have followed Miner's selections have done very tidily out of it, and thus place great weight on what Miner has to say.

It is also because of Miner's experience that he eschews a posting style of detail - one because of obvious legal implications, two if the company you are posting on is so crash hot why feel the need to post about it every other day and in great detail unless you were trying to 'hook' people into the 'story' for personal gain, and three because ramping is an unacceptable practice that is unfortunately part and parcel of share trading forums - an immoral activity normally associated with great numbers of posts, reams of detail, and mostly carried out with predictions of sometimes exact certainty that is the polar opposite of the phrase "keep an eye on this one". Any experience of share trading forums will eventually leave most people with the opinion that on those forums "empty vessels make the most sound" - the most extreme examples of this can be found on HotCopper - why would anyone with anything valuable to say want to emulate an overtly rampatory posting style that is quickly discounted by anyone with even a skerrick of intelligence?

In the end, if I want to "know why" Miner writes I should "keep half an eye on this one" I'll just put it down to the tea leaves - because if Miner did put down the real reasons in detail he would unfortunately start to sound like the very people that he is the exact opposite of. Can't really blame anyone for wanting to not be associated with ramping, can you?

tracker
03-01-2005, 01:38 PM
touche'
tracker

stolwyk
03-01-2005, 01:46 PM
Miner,

You have now made an idiot of yourelf by suggesting that people started up Sharescene because of my ramping. How stupid can you get.

If ST is size 1, then Ozestock was size 12 and Hotcopper size 20. So one needs to talk big here. Yesterday, on a holiday, HC turned over well over 300 posts in the stock section alone and many others in the business section apart from the input on the "General site.

Today, Ozestock is all but gone because the owner made a big mistake
by introducing a new format.

Hot Copper was put up for option to MSN who tried it but put in so many adverts that it was too slow. So, it went back to the previous owner.

A discussion by some posters from Hotcopper (Alpha Centurian was one)with Redraw, the Leader of today's Scarescene took place on 18 Nov 2003:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=2&tid=69419#39628

Sorry, I can't transfer other's posts to ST. MSN is being mentioned and the HC posters took a hard line.

So, you are completely up the creek with your suggestion about me. Why do you keep on spreading rumours?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You wrote:
"If I did long very bullish posts on gold like your mate gerry that would be ok though ay???."

Again, some malicious feedback from you. For a start Mick100 posts on this and the Main thread. It is up to him to post anywhere without "having to be a mate of mine".

Also, I have posted the opposite view from time to time as well:
Posted - 20/12/2004 : 3:14:27 PM
------------------------------------------

Clive Maund: Special warning:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/maund121904.html

I also posted this yesterday:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mchugh121804.html

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A great pity that a man like you resorts to malice and rumour.


Gerry

miner
03-01-2005, 04:16 PM
Track Packer ta.

Gerry at the time the word was you were one of the reasons,and I would have thought that as you ramp on every other forum you can you would on sharescene,but as far as I can see you dont???.

The reason why your post below is ok and my one isn't is because???.

After opening, price hit $1.14. Currently $1.09.

It is seesawing somewhat.

Gerry


Originally posted by miner

After opening, price hit $1.07. Currently $1.00.

down 7c or 6.54%.

stolwyk
03-01-2005, 05:10 PM
Yes, believe rumours and actively spread them.

You said: "Gerry at the time the word was you were one of the reasons"

How stupid; but of course it suits you, liar. My name was never brought up and I was quite well informed.

Fancy Gerry controlling 2 massive sites. And now I have explained why because of expected Ozestock and HC sales at that time, I suppose you still don't want to believe it. You are a hardened liar who grabs every opportunity to marginalize me.

My posting on all chatsites is the same. Another invention of yours, that one site could be different.

I have never in my life -and I have met some proper b..s- a person like you full of malice and venom. Like other attacking dogs in the pack, you the Top dog, certainly live up to the ideal of confusing people and baring your teeth.

Now you complain about my long posts. Unfortunately for you, you won't have any say on the matter. If the people don't want to read them, that is alright with me. There is some good work there but of course you and Enigma want to marginalize everything so it is no good. You two act with a malicious purpose.

Anyway, it is the non biased judgement from the people on HC and the readers here, I go by, so your artificial whining will be ignored.

Amazing how fast the reading clock is ticking over.

I am still waiting for a decent post of yours rather than your sabotaging this thread.

How sad reading this rubbish from Miner. But not unexpected!

Please stop sending this thread to the top of the queue, other posters may not appreciate that.


Gerry

miner
03-01-2005, 05:17 PM
The reason why your post below is ok and my one isn't is because???.

After opening, price hit $1.14. Currently $1.09.

It is seesawing somewhat.

Gerry


Originally posted by miner

After opening, price hit $1.07. Currently $1.00.

down 7c or 6.54%.

stolwyk
03-01-2005, 05:33 PM
I am merely quoting COOPER's post in toto. That covers all preceding posts. It is on this thread:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20538&whichpage=2&SearchTerms=STU

The reader can follow the whole thread if he/she wants to. No, it is not pleasant.

So I post it again (By Cooper):

quote:
------------------------------------
Originally posted by miner

After opening, price hit $1.07. Currently $1.00.

down 7c or 6.54%.

------------------------------------
Now at 127, which is just under a 40% gain from when Gerry started posting on this company...

I understand the need for vigilance when it comes to rampers. However, Gerry hasn't misrepresented this stock. IMHO he has pretty much called it as it has happened, and has even been good enough to let us know when he sold some of his holding. Given Gerry has not "ramped" on this thread, perhaps criticism of his posts could be company specific, or of course to contradict a post you feel is made in error.

If he does post anything that can be construed as ramping then it's only fair he should be pulled up, however until then the empty back and forth must be wasting your valuable time as well as cluttering up a useful site. If he has posted anything on this thread which is erroneous or false then I can't find it, and am prepared to eat humble pie if there is something of that nature.

Regards, Cooper

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment: Have you learnt anything from this? Answ: No, you don't want to.

03-01-2005, 05:40 PM
Gerry a sharechat site that you and others like you are banned from would be agreat asset. Iwould even consider a subscription fee if the chat room was a good one.

03-01-2005, 05:46 PM
Miner have a look at Mick 100's posting style and language and comepare with, the great self appraised brillant opinionated share Guru. Of course it will be denied they are one & the same but even the stockpicks for the ASX competition show the same way of thinking.

stolwyk
03-01-2005, 06:06 PM
With your record here, they may not even let you in.

You already have been noted as a Stalker. I already have said that I am in favour of subscription on HC. That ought to cut out some Aliases.

Actually, every time I see your two or three liners, you make me think of a fox terrier: coming back for more all the time, yapping galore and not afraid of piddling against someone's legs. If you insist you can be #3 dog after Miner.

As to Mick100, there are two things I don't do: asking someone to participate in a competition, because that is up to the person concerned.

Or criticizing the way Miner posts. It is true that I am a believer in exposition, however. If people don't want to read, that is up to them.

So, although I do appreciate the work Mick100 is doing; you may come to the conclusion that he is not me. However, you insist to holding on to untruths, after all if you let this one go, it would be more difficult to marginalize me.

You wrote: "Of course it will be denied they are one & the same but even the stockpicks for the ASX competition show the same way of thinking".
Comment: you must be dreaming. He only picked one of my 5 stocks; I didn't have an oil stock but he did. You are a liar!

There are plenty of people having mining and oil stocks because they have been told that the outlook is promising.

No need to call on Miner though: he is far too clever for you and had picked the difference between Mick and me; you are on your own on this one kid.

miner
03-01-2005, 06:49 PM
Thought you might side step that one Gerry,you have mentioned it a few times saying that I was a naughty boy for posting it,and no unlike you I don't have it on file and cant be bothered finding where you said it.

"Comment: Have you learnt anything from this? Answ: No, you don't want to".I already know your a ramper Gerry so nothing to learn,you ramped on the STU thread just cooper didn't pick it,when have time will give an example of your ramping,did a wee test on you years ago old boy.


Enigma was thinking much the same as Gerry has been caught out on other sites ramping himself using other names,Gerry starts ramping gold after buying his gold shares then mick100 turns up and is very bullish gold,agrees with everything Gerry says and pats him on the back.

They both get into Arco when he says gold will drop (it did),then mick100 says "IMO, you are gutless",when I said I just do short and sweet posts,when tracker does the same(short and sweet posts) but she got a "Yeah, OK tracker Fair enough".

So mick100 is a very good lap dog to Gerry his master,or it was Gerry who hates my guts having a go,or they may just email each other as Gerry so often accuses us of,funny how Gerry does many things he says others do.

Anyway if Gerry is mick100 he will trip himself up sooner or later as he has on other sites,signing a post as Gerry when he was using a different name on HC was a classic,or the time on ozestock when he said he wouldn't post as so many people were getting into him to stop ramping,then starts posting under a different name,the list goes on.

Hope you had a good Xmas and new year mate,I just ate some of those paua I got yesterday for dinner yummy.

Cheers
Miner

Mick100
03-01-2005, 07:04 PM
"Mick.

Happy new year. Just a heads up on Miner. When Miner writes: "keep an eye on this one", this usually means there is a heavy weight of analysis of one sort or another behind his selection - an assessment contained not only in the resources at Miner's disposal, but also by his considerable range of contacts through various sectors related to the sharemarket. Thus "keep an eye on this one" is a very light phrase that contains a very heavy weight of intelligence and information behind it: also heavy in that most Share Trader people who have followed Miner's selections have done very tidily out of it, and thus place great weight on what Miner has to say."



================================================== ===========



Happy new year to you too Packers

Something which interests me about these chat sites is discovering which posters have credability. When one has face to face interaction with others one can make a fairly accurate assessment of the credability of others in a short time. When dealing with people on the internet it is much more difficult to discover which participants are credible people.

I'v only been fequenting this site for 6 months and have not yet formed any solid opinions regarding the credibility of other posters.

In saying that, if miner is such a ****-hot stock picker, then why is he afaid of entering a stock picking comp. IMO, he has lost some credibility by not entering the stock picking comp.




Mick

03-01-2005, 07:19 PM
Miner paua are to tough I prefer toheroas Or Bluff oysters though the toheroas must be chopped not minced for fritters. How about Kina do you get into those. (they are definate not my taste) hope you have a good stock of those tea leaves. The good ones could be invery short supply thanks to the tsaumi.

03-01-2005, 07:23 PM
Gerry both your and Micks picks are highly speculative mining stocks ( and I include oilers as mining stocks)very suitable for ramping.

miner
03-01-2005, 07:25 PM
In saying that, if miner is such a ****-hot stock picker, then why is he afaid of entering a stock picking comp. IMO, he has lost some credibility by not entering the stock picking comp.

Man you talk some sh*t mick100 or are just very green at this game or both,one reason I don't enter is that it opens the door to emotion,which you have just shown you don't have a grasp of with your afraid comment.

So if Joe blogs enters the comp he is then credible is he???,you got allot to learn.

Reading forums is an art in itself.

And before you answer think about what I just said.

Cheers
Miner

miner
03-01-2005, 07:28 PM
Enigma that's what the hammer is for,give them the bash slice them thin tender as,Kina yuck but saw heaps next to the paua.

Cheers
Miner

Packersoldkidney
03-01-2005, 07:42 PM
Hey, Mick.

Can't answer why Miner won't enter the stock-picking comp - though I suspect that he knows that whoever wins the comp will have more than a modicum of luck associated with their selections being preeminent over others. In other words to call it a comp is misleading - I think a better term might be the '2005 ASX crap shoot' or the '2005 ASX dice rolling competition' or maybe the '2005 ASX who has the best leprechaun luck comp'. Maybe he doesn't want to be in a 'comp' that really won't take any skill to win at all. If you doubt this perhaps you should track some of the bigger investment funds that claim to have the very best heads working on getting the very best of returns for their clients, yet in most years can barely top the ASX 200 index, and if they do rarely do so two years in a row. There is that much that can change in a year investment wise, I think we will all be looking back on our selections a year hence and will be going: "shysa! What the hell was I doing picking that one?!" The only reason I'm in it is that be nature I'm a gambler, and the idea of picking a few stocks and leaving them for 12 months appeals to that side of me. In the real world I think picking stocks and leaving them unattended for 12 months is one sure fire way to get you to lose money over the long term. One of the reasons why fundamental and technical analysis exists - to work out when the point is to exit a stock, and to establish where new opportunity arises elsewhere. I can write with some confidence that at some stage through the year every entrant in the comp will be looking at at least one of their selections and wish they hadn't of picked it - simply because the fundamentals or technicals have changed, or some other occurence has occured. In other words the comp, while a fun exercise, is about as far removed from real world trading/investing as you could possibly get, and no real measure of anyone's worth as a trader or investor. Maybe this is why Miner won't enter.

Mick100
03-01-2005, 07:57 PM
"Man you talk some sh*t mick100 or are just very green at this game or both"


=====================================


miner, Maybe I am a bit green as far as chat sites are concerned but I'v had a good track record at picking shares over the past few years.


Packers, stock picking comps are relevent for a medium-long term investor such as myself. If your trading in and out of shares over a short time frame, then I agree, comps are irrellevent.


Mick

Revhead
03-01-2005, 08:13 PM
Years ago when I was a wee lad, my father used to drag us (the whole family) out to Oreti beach near Invercargill to dig for toheroas. As a nipper, it was great fun when first arriving at the beach in the early dawn, until the hands got so cold all feeling was lost in the fingers. But the limit was usually gained very quickly as plenty for all in the 60's. Then back home for Toh.. soup/patties.

Different story now though with no regular seasons and everybody taking too many.

Give me raw bluff oysters (don't ever cook them!!), mussels or paua anyday. and an overflowing pan of mushrooms fried in butter, picked in about 20 mins from one paddock on the old mans farm was good too.

Another good memory is floundering on various beaches in southland - me and my older brother on the shallow end with water up to our chest - dad and pop on the deep end draging the net for flounders. Used to get heaps in those days. Always seemed to be done in winter for some reason:(.

Summer holidays were all spent camped on some river bank, fishing for trout etc. My idea of heaven. Evenings spent spotlighting for rabbits and possums.

memory's ay !!:D:D

lighten up you lot!!